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The worst is over for the ash clouds from Iceland's volcano

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2010

The worst is now over for European air traffic disruptions from the ongoing eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano. The eruptions are currently only throwing ash up to 16,000 feet (4900 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since Sunday. The lower amounts of ash are due, in part, to the fact that the volcano has melted most of the ice and snow covering the crater. This ice had caused the hot magma erupting through it to fragment into fine ash capable of reaching much higher heights of 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') in the early stages of the eruption. Ash is also reduced because the volcano has entered a phase where it is producing more magma. Although it is possible that the volcano could enter a more explosive eruption phase that would throw ash high into the air once again, the winds are expected to shift over Iceland late this week. The northwest winds that have been "stuck" in place over Iceland over the past week due to a persistent trough of low pressure over northern Europe, will gradually shift to westerly by Friday and southwesterly by Saturday. This means that new eruptive material will blow over the northern British Islands and northern Scandanavia late this week, avoiding the main portion of Europe. Ash should be confined to northern Scandanavia and Greenland through most of next week, since the southwesterly winds are expected to continue through most of next week.


Figure 1. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano began to ease out of the ash-producing phase of its eruption and started to emit magma on April 19, 2010, said the Icelandic Met Office. The cloud of ash coming from the volcano was lower than it had been in previous days, rising just 4 to 6 kilometers (2 to 3 miles) into the atmosphere. In this photo-like image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the ash extends south in a broad brown plume. Smaller plumes extend from the coast east of the primary plume. These are likely re-suspended ash, fine volcanic ash that had settled on the land, but is now being picked up by the wind. The plume blows south and then curves east over the ocean, blending with the outer bands of a low-pressure system. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post Thursday (Earth Day!)
Jeff Masters

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update. Let's hope it stays quiet for a bit.
thanks doc i am expecting more action from iceland over the summer its not done yet
The mean date of the start of the rainy season across southeast florida is May 20, so we probably beginning the transition period. We got very little lightning from the activity yesterday, which means that it's still too early. I'm not sure if whatever is left of El Niño will have an impact on the start of the rainy season. Past starts in El Niño years has varied some, so no clear signal from what I can tell. Looks like we will dry out nicely after today with a ridge building overhead keeping any disturbances north of the area. Temps sky rocket this weekend close to 90.
Neat site, not always current however :)



http://www.osei.noaa.gov/index.html

Quoting hurricane23:
The mean date of the start of the rainy season across southeast florida is May 20, so we probably beginning the transition period. We got very little lightning from the activity yesterday, which means that it's still too early. I'm not sure if whatever is left of El Niño will have an impact on the start of the rainy season. Past starts in El Niño years has varied some, so no clear signal from what I can tell. Looks like we will dry out nicely after today with a ridge building overhead keeping any disturbances north of the area. Temps sky rocket this weekend close to 90.


TGuess it's that time of year for me to slap some wax on the cars and boat. Change out those wiper blades and coat those windows with Rain-X. Oh and get the A/C serviced.
Re Fla rainy season. Jax radar had a hint of a seabreeze line ahead of the rain moving in from the west yesterday.
The warm waters left from the kelvin wave are being squezzed by the cool waters from the north and south.

Link
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


TGuess it's that time of year for me to slap some wax on the cars and boat. Change out those wiper blades and coat those windows with Rain-X. Oh and get the A/C serviced.


I have those serviced 365 days every year.
Quoting DVG:
Re Fla rainy season. Jax radar had a hint of a seabreeze line ahead of the rain moving in from the west yesterday.



Your correct, almost there. The rains took off out by the lake and drifted Eastward. I live in Wellington and the view westward as I was driving out from West Palm was that of your traditional sea breeze storms although, they lacked the lightning as Hur23 pointed out. Just as usual, later that evening we had showers as they moved eastward.
Our local mentioned the Sea Breeze last night. We'll have it this afternoon again.
this year has gone by fast
its all most May where has 2010 gone
I completely understand Taz, it's all a blurr to me.

However, if this is to be an active year as forecast, I'd rather get it going and get it over with so full speed ahead Captain.
Does anyone know where the severe weather setup will be on Saturday?

I've fixed my portable live hurricane webcam issues and I'm once again going to attempt an uninterrupted broadcast Saturday afternoon.

I was freaked to find out this morning that if I had just gotten in the car on I-40 and driven 4 hours towards Amarillo, I would've had a chance to intercept the Bushland tornado.

:P
Try the SPC Page,that would be the "Storm Prediction Center"..

Then Try google for a Flagpole Location near your "Storm" as well..that would be "Google Maps"


Good Luck..
Quoting CycloneOz:
Does anyone know where the severe weather setup will be on Saturday?

I've fixed my portable live hurricane webcam issues and I'm once again going to attempt an uninterrupted broadcast Saturday afternoon.

I was freaked to find out this morning that if I had just gotten in the car on I-40 and driven 4 hours towards Amarillo, I would've had a chance to intercept the Bushland tornado.

:P


Saturday

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I hope the eruption calms down at least long enough for all the travelers to be sent on their way!
Quoting Tazmanian:
its all most May where has 2010 gone
It wont be long before we are tracking our first tropical cyclone. I am grateful for the break we have had with tornadoes and severe weather. A lot of people still trying to get there homes and lives back together here.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Your correct, almost there. The rains took off out by the lake and drifted Eastward. I live in Wellington and the view westward as I was driving out from West Palm was that of your traditional sea breeze storms although, they lacked the lightning as Hur23 pointed out. Just as usual, later that evening we had showers as they moved eastward.


We had lots of lightning in the Orlando area last night with some area picking up 4" of rain. I personally had 2.7" with pea size hail for a brief period at 11:45pm.
Quoting hydrus:
It wont be long before we are tracking our first tropical cyclone. I am grateful for the break we have had with tornadoes and severe weather. A lot of people still trying to get there homes and lives back together here.



yes i am too but i think that break from severe weather is comeing too a end
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I completely understand Taz, it's all a blurr to me.

However, if this is to be an active year as forecast, I'd rather get it going and get it over with so full speed ahead Captain.
steady as she goes raise the main full speed ahead lets go for a record here hold on
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes i am too but i think that break from severe weather is comeing too a end


That tornado in Amarillo was massive yesterday. The tornado was being shown live on TWC.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Your correct, almost there. The rains took off out by the lake and drifted Eastward. I live in Wellington and the view westward as I was driving out from West Palm was that of your traditional sea breeze storms although, they lacked the lightning as Hur23 pointed out. Just as usual, later that evening we had showers as they moved eastward.


S FL lacked lightning because all th energy went across C and N FL last night. I can tell you the lightning was very impressive last night here.
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes i am too but i think that break from severe weather is comeing too a end


day 2 day 3 severe outlook

Quoting Tazmanian:



yes i am too but i think that break from severe weather is comeing too a end
Yes, we may have some on the way this week. The Gulf of Mexico is still quite cool though and dew points are only forecast to be in the 60,s. This should reduce any chances for a violent weather outbreak.
Quoting Jeff9641:


We had lots of lightning in the Orlando area last night with some area picking up 4" of rain. I personally had 2.7" with pea size hail for a brief period at 11:45pm.


There were a few upper level things going on yesterday which was contributing to your increased intensity up north. There is another upper level impulse coming across today that will do the same thing, more south though.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 AM EDT WED APR 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TODAY...JUST AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EXPECTED OVER
ECFL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
. SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY...BUT SOME CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES AND
THIS TREND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING TOWARD
THE PENINSULA FROM THE WEST AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.
i think we will see are 1st name storm in may
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I hope the eruption calms down at least long enough for all the travelers to be sent on their way!

Evening all, The Iceland volcano needs to stay in this phase for at least a month for things to get back to normal in the air.
what are the names this year
good morning everyone

did you see the explosion on the rig in the gulf?

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/04/21/oil.rig.explosion/index.html?hpt=T1

it very windy here in northern california
From an asteroid to the Outback - Hayabusa space probe set for Aussie splashdown

IT is one of the most gripping questions of the space age, and it will be answered soon when a basketball-sized craft ends a journey of millions of kilometres by landing in Australia.

In May, 2003 the Japanese space probe Hayabusa was launched on an expedition never attempted before.

It was to visit asteroid 25143 Itokawa, an ugly and irregularly-shaped lump about 535m long orbiting in the neighbourhood of Mars, and collect samples from the surface.

Hayabusa has been making the return journey to Earth since September, 2005, and is now about 17 million kilometers away - just down the road in space terms.

But nobody is certain it did its collection duties. The probe made two landings on Itokawa, each of about 30 minutes, but there is no evidence it was able to gather the few grams of rock which was its objective.

And we won't know for certain until around midnight on June 13 when Hayabusa will re-enters the Earth's atmosphere and parachutes gently, scientists hope, to the ground at Woomera in South Australia.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

That's when a container inside the 17kg craft will be taken out and tests run to see if it contains what could be priceless space gravel.

"It is the first time a spacecraft has made contact with an asteroid and returned to Earth," said Innovation Minister Kim Carr yesterday confirming the Australian touchdown.

The touchdown will be one of the most important to be scheduled for the Woomera Prohibited Area, the Defence Department spread of desert which is the largest land-based test area in the world.

The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) will be monitoring the return flight, which will be tracked by a range of telescopes including Tidbinbilla outside Canberra.

An official of the Department of of Innovation, Industry and Science is about to leave for the mission's HQ in Japan. He could have final say on whether the re-entry can proceed and could halt it in the highly unlikely event that residential areas were at risk.

Asteroid 25143 Itokawa, named after a Japanese rocket scientist is such an unassuming space item it seems strange that something as ambitious s Hayabusa's mission would be considered.

But already it has provided information which will help exploration of other asteroids, including big ones which might be heading to Earth.

It has been found to be a strange mass of loose rocks, so loose that 40 per cent of it is empty space. It appears to be an accumulation of debris, according to initial observations.

"The observations provided us with much new information to study the asteroid formation process," said JAXA.

"By revealing the detailed figure of the most common small asteroid, we acquired important guidelines for future explorations of all types of asteroids."
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, we may have some on the way this week. The Gulf of Mexico is still quite cool though and dew points are only forecast to be in the 60,s. This should reduce any chances for a violent weather outbreak.
GOM cooling effect is whats been hampering entire severe weather season
Quoting Tazmanian:
what are the names this year


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

Good morning everyone, the DFW, TX area is looking to have visitors on Th.Fr of this week:


Oz, sorry you missed out on "storm chasing" yesterday, you missed out on a big supercell complex west of Amarillo, TX.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
GOM cooling effect is whats been hampering entire severe weather season
Just goes to show what a huge impact the Gulf of Mexico has on the weather in North America.
Quoting hydrus:
Just goes to show what a huge impact the Gulf of Mexico has on the weather in North America.
yep always more to the picture than meets the eye
Quoting StormChaser81:


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter




ok
The Gulf's impacts are amazing, especially when anomalously cool. Week by week you can almost visualize the heating taking place as you notice subtle differences in weather with each passing week.
Quoting Jeff9641:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 AM EDT WED APR 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TODAY...JUST AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR SPRINKLE EXPECTED OVER
ECFL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTER LAST NIGHT`S FIREWORKS
. SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY...BUT SOME CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES AND
THIS TREND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING TOWARD
THE PENINSULA FROM THE WEST AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

Morning jeff, All of the lightning must of been east of me i only got .006 last night. ok maybe next time.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good morning everyone, the DFW, TX area is looking to have visitors on Th.Fr of this week:


Oz, sorry you missed out on "storm chasing" yesterday, you missed out on a big supercell complex west of Amarillo, TX.


Yeah, I found out this AM. :P
Good morning, all! Just a reminder - it's time for the 2010 Portlight/WU Honor Walk & Roll. We're raising money to build permanent shelter in Haiti and to prepare for our domestic disaster response through the upcoming storm season. Get outside, enjoy the Spring weather and help Portlight keep on rockin'!!

You can check out my blog for more info, and visit the Portlight website to download the flyer and sponsorship forms.

As always, we appreciate all of you and your strong and unwavering support!! The WU community is the best anywhere, hands down!!
I think these 3-day outlooks are too aggressive to the east.

I've decided to stage myself in Amarillo, TX on Saturday AM...and we'll see.

But I'm willing to bet I could drop down to Childress, TX and be in some bad weather come the PM on Saturday.
FYI, SDO goes live today at 2:15 EDT. This should be some good stuff :)

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

WASHINGTON -- NASA will hold a news briefing and unveil initial images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, at 2:15 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 21, in the atrium of the Newseum. The Newseum is located at 555 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, in Washington. NASA Television and the agency's Web site will provide live coverage of the briefing.

Launched on Feb. 11, 2010, SDO is the most advanced spacecraft ever designed to study the sun and its dynamic behavior. The spacecraft will provide images with clarity ten times better than high definition television and more comprehensive science data faster than any solar observing spacecraft in history.

The participants for this briefing are:

Dean Pesnell, SDO project scientist, Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
Alan Title, principal investigator, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory in Palo Alto, Calif.
Philip H. Scherrer, principal investigator, Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument, Stanford University in Palo Alto
Tom Woods, principal investigator, Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment instrument, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado in Boulder
Madhulika Guhathakurta, SDO program scientist, NASA Headquarters in Washington

Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah, I found out this AM. :P

That is OK, the TX Panhandle might have more Severe storms today and tomorrow. Plus, you'll have plenty of Tropical systems to chase this year :o).
Quoting CycloneOz:
I think these 3-day outlooks are too aggressive to the east.

I've decided to stage myself in Amarillo, TX on Saturday AM...and we'll see.

But I'm willing to bet I could drop down to Childress, TX and be in some bad weather come the PM on Saturday.
have ya picked out your flagpole yet
There she blows ! ( volcano ).

Volcano webcam
Report from NWS Amarillo, TX:

April 20 Storm
Tornadic Storm
April 20, 2010

On the evening of April 20, 2010 a storm developed near Boys Ranch, TX and moved southeast to just west of Bushland. When the storm was west of Bushland, there were multiple reports of a tornado. As the tornado moved further south into Randall County, there were more reports of a tornado.

Further information on any possible tornados will be possible after storm damage teams complete their surveys April 21, 2010. Updated information will be available on the web page at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/

Preliminary Storm Reports

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL BOYS RANCH 35.51N 102.25W

04/20/2010 E0.75 INCH OLDHAM TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0704 PM TORNADO 5 W BUSHLAND 35.19N 102.15W

04/20/2010 OLDHAM TX AMATEUR RADIO



LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PRELIMINARY END TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0710 PM HAIL 1 N BUSHLAND 35.20N 102.06W

04/20/2010 M1.75 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER



SPOTTER ALSO CONFIRMED THE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR

BUSHLAND

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG UMBARGER 34.95N 102.11W

04/20/2010 RANDALL TX EMERGENCY MNGR



HOME WINDOWS BLOWN OUT IN UMBARGER



0747 PM TORNADO 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES

NORTHEAST OF UMBARGER. PRELIMINARY POSITION PENDING

STORM SURVEY.



0748 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 M68 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



SCHOOLNET REPORT FROM BRANDT FARMS

0831 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE UMBARGER 34.99N 102.07W

04/20/2010 M68 MPH RANDALL TX BROADCAST MEDIA



SCHOOLNET REPORT FROM BRANDT FARMS


todays tornado outlook
52. DVG
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Your correct, almost there. The rains took off out by the lake and drifted Eastward. I live in Wellington and the view westward as I was driving out from West Palm was that of your traditional sea breeze storms although, they lacked the lightning as Hur23 pointed out. Just as usual, later that evening we had showers as they moved eastward.


Don't know about S Fl, just was looking at the radar from nws jax. There was a very light and very thin line up the middle of the peninsula, a couple counties west of Duval. I don't think it extended far south, but I wasn't really paying attention to it.

I was actually surprised it was there. Didn't seem warm enough for that.

I have noticed the clouds are getting a bit more puffy looking.

Anyway, I am loving the mild days and cool nights for as long as they last.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
have ya picked out your flagpole yet


When tornado chasing, I've learned that your best footage is from a distance from the vortex.

No flagpoles required until after June 1st.... :P
Waters are warming pretty quickly, seeing lot's of mid 70's now and the Gulf Stream is in the high 70's.

Storm Chaser, although parts of the Gulf may be a few degrees above normal now, by mid/late May 2010, the GOM will be near or even slightly above normal.
Lots of the Bay of Campechece and the Loop current Head in the GOM are 80F already,a quick Buoy scan will show that easily.





The GOM only supplies moisture for the Continental severe storm Outbreaks and the main forcings are the Continental drivers,which havent really begun in Ernest.
NSW drought figures hit nine-year low

The area of New South Wales in drought has dropped dramatically.

Recent heavy rains have seen the figure fall to 7.3 per cent of the state in March.

In February, 39.8 per cent of New South Wales was in drought - in January the figure was 81 per cent.

Areas that moved out of drought last month include Wagga Wagga in the state's south, Lake Cargelligo in the central west and Menindee in the far west.

Bathurst, Broken Hill and Wilcannia are among the areas which moved from marginal to satisfactory.

The only decline from satisfactory to marginal was a part of New England near Uralla, in the state's north west.

The Primary Industries Minister Steve Whan says they are the best drought figures for nine years.

"We know that there is still tough times for many people but it is great to see this sort of news," he said.

"I know from talking to people and farmers that there is a lot of smiles out there at the moment.

"We are seeing a lot more confidence about planting crops and of course we are getting cattle with some decent feed and that is terrific news for people."

But Mr Whan is worried that more than half of the state is considered marginal.

"If conditions don't continue with some rainfall they could actually slip back into drought so that is something we will keep a close eye on," he said.

He is also concerned that the state's large water storage levels remain low - at just 28.8 per cent of capacity.

© ABC 2010
What was the strongest earthquake associated with the eruption of the "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" volcano?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What was the strongest earthquake associated with the eruption of the "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" volcano?

About 3.0 Mw, most quakes were in the 1-2 Mw range.
#58 Aussie, that's good news, hopefully the El Nino's decline continues, and your Australian drought will end completely!
Quoting StormChaser81:
Waters are warming pretty quickly, seeing lot's of mid 70's now and the Gulf Stream is in the high 70's.




Should get a real kick in the pants with high pressure settling in for the next week. Temps will be approaching 90 around the peninsula.
Quoting Bordonaro:
#58 Aussie, that's good news, hopefully the El Nino's decline continues, and your Australian drought will end completely!

Eastern Australia has had plenty of rain but the western side has had very little. That's the difference in this country between El Nino and La Nina.
Goodnight all, Stay safe :-)
Thunderstorms are beginning to form again over C FL. I'm seeing a lot tall Cumulus clouds building north of Orlando.
Quoting AussieStorm:

the east has had plenty of rain but the west has had very little. That's the difference in this country between El Nino and La Nina.

El Nino is fading quickly, so hopefully, over the next few months your rainfall will increase to normal/above normal.
> Top 10 Tornado prone cities
> Ranked by tornadoes per 1,000 miles

> 1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> 2. Tulsa, Oklahoma
> 3. Dallas - Ft. Worth, Texas
> 4. Wichita, Kansas
> 5. Springfield, Missouri
> 6. Kansas City, Kansas / Missouri
> 7. Ft. Smith, Arkansas
> 8. Little Rock, Arkansas
> 9. Jackson, Mississippi
> 10. Birmingham, Alabama
Quoting Jeff9641:
> Top 10 Tornado prone cities
> Ranked by tornadoes per 1,000 miles

> 1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> 2. Tulsa, Oklahoma
> 3. Dallas - Ft. Worth, Texas
> 4. Wichita, Kansas
> 5. Springfield, Missouri
> 6. Kansas City, Kansas / Missouri
> 7. Ft. Smith, Arkansas
> 8. Little Rock, Arkansas
> 9. Jackson, Mississippi
> 10. Birmingham, Alabama


Thanks for that good news. Just kidding, the DFW, TX area has been very quiet so far this spring, but I am sure that will not last!
You can see the clouds building in front of that aforementioned impulse coming down the peninsula. It's going to be a timing thing as dry air is building in behind.

GOM VISIBLE
tornado touches down against a sunset backdrop near Bushland, Texas, on Tuesday evening.





From CPC:

Latest Text Summary


During the period from April 1-10,2010, the mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 10.3N and experienced a moderate lag compared to the mean climatological ITF position at 11.5N for early April. The western portion of the ITF is also more southerly than the same dekad of 2009 when the ITF was around 11.0N. The eastern portion of the ITF also experienced a slight lag during the last dekad, with an anomalous latitudinal displacement of -0.5 degrees. Figure 1 shows the current position compared to normal, and the current equatorward shift of the ITF is likely due to rains and moisture being confined in the lower Gulf of Guinea region, and parts of the southern Central African Republic. It is clear that both the eastern and westen positions of the ITF are more southerly than normal, as depicted by Figures 2 and 3.




Quoting Jeff9641:
> Top 10 Tornado prone cities
> Ranked by tornadoes per 1,000 miles

> 1. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> 2. Tulsa, Oklahoma
> 3. Dallas - Ft. Worth, Texas
> 4. Wichita, Kansas
> 5. Springfield, Missouri
> 6. Kansas City, Kansas / Missouri
> 7. Ft. Smith, Arkansas
> 8. Little Rock, Arkansas
> 9. Jackson, Mississippi
> 10. Birmingham, Alabama


My kids live --- guess where!!!
Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
I told them I have doubts about their ability to pick a decent place to live. LOL
11 missing oil rig crew members found safe after explosion, parish president says
By Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune
April 21, 2010, 10:33AM



Rescuers have found the 11 people who went missing shortly after the oil drilling rig they were aboard exploded and caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, according to Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Nungesser said he received reports that the workers are alive and safe.

The Coast Guard was trying to verify this information at 10:48 a.m.CDT
A question.. I am watching two live feeds from "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" to borrow a term from St. Simon, and U'm having trouble comparing the two against one another.

eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north

and

eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?

Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.

The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)

the question.. are they of the same vent?

Quoting Patrap:
11 missing oil rig crew members found safe after explosion, parish president says
By Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune
April 21, 2010, 10:33AM



Rescuers have found the 11 people who went missing shortly after the oil drilling rig they were aboard exploded and caught fire in the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday, according to Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Nungesser said he received reports that the workers are alive and safe.

The Coast Guard was trying to verify this information at 10:48 a.m.CDT


That would be very good news indeed... I had figured they were blown overboard with the explosion.
When I worked for Chevron in 94-95 on Hercules-21 outta Venice,LA..we all drilled twice a week for the Exit Plan.



The Escape Pod/Capsule is a WUnderful thing when its time to get...in a hurry.

And Im sure these men are thankful for all the Required training for such a event.

Also the weather was clear and calm at the time of the Explosion and fire.

Blogger JFlorida has a nice entry on the injured and the accident



Florida ranks first in the United States for lightning, with an average of 100 thunderstorm days per year. The lightning capitol of the world is the West coast of Africa, with as many as 295 thunderstorm days per year.

- Number of lightning strikes a day: 8 million

- Your chances of being struck by lightning in the United States are 1 in 600,000. But your chances of being struck in Florida are higher simply due to the state being the lightning capital of the United States. Florida averages 70 to 100 thunderstorm days a year. Orlando has 80 to 90 days. Tropical Africa is the lightning capital of the world as more than 280 thunderstorm days occur at this location.

- Number of thunderstorms occurring at any given moment: 2,000

- Number of lightning strikes every second: 100

- Number of lightning strikes a day: 8 million

- Number of thunderstorms occurring in the United States a year: 100,000

- Number of lightning strikes in the USA per year: 20 million

Quoting indianrivguy:
A question.. I am watching two live feeds from "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" to borrow a term from St. Simon, and U'm having trouble comparing the two against one another.

eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north

and

eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?

Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.

The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)

the question.. are they of the same vent?



From everything I understand, these are the same vents. They are just different cam angles which can be a little confusing.

add: I have gotten a lot of good information from here the last few days. http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
guess they have an similiar excape pod from the space station?
That would be the Russian Soyuz Spacecraft that takes crews up and Down 3 at a Time,..two are now at the ISS.

And after the Shuttles retire this year,with 3 flights remaining The Soyuz will be the only access Up and down from ISS.

Quoting PcolaDan:


From everything I understand, these are the same vents. They are just different cam angles which can be a little confusing.


Thanks.. it may be the disparity in how "current" my view is too.. the eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli camera has not refreshed since I posed the question.. but I know if I refresh, it won't reload, too many computers awake and watching now. In the eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk view, the sun is now behind the plume putting into a shadow..

I must say again how pleased I am the roughnecks were found okay.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks.. it may be the disparity in how "current" my view is too.. the eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli camera has not refreshed since I posed the question.. but I know if I refresh, it won't reload, too many computers awake and watching now. In the eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk view, the sun is now behind the plume putting into a shadow..

I must say again how pleased I am the roughnecks were found okay.

I have refreshed the web-cam pictures several times, just recently a matter of fact, and the reload ok for me.

However, there appears to be a low cloud deck moving in blocking most of the current eruption. Today's activity appears to be greatly increased from what little I saw yesterday.
Hi everyone,

More rain in SE Florida.. wettest dry season I can remember... we got almost 3" over weekend and almost another 2 last night... We normally do not get 5" of rain in 3 months during Jan - April, and we are getting that much almost every weekend lately.
Adrian, wonder why Dade county is missing these rains and not getting as much as Broward?


Hopefully we will dry out alittle before the next bunch of rain comes.

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Gams
Regarding #71:
Levi32 (or anyone else who wants to take a stab at it...)

Shouldn't that more southerly moisture impact the SAL? Could that implicate the potential for more dust this season?

Any thoughts would be most appreciated... TIA
Quoting Bordonaro:

About 3.0 Mw, most quakes were in the 1-2 Mw range.


3 really isn't very much, is it. I would have expected some 4s. With the glacier over the vent gone, I guess it will transition to more a lava eruption than explosive ash eruption. I hope so.
From mbl.is, translated using Firefox translator:

Gosmkkurinn increased suddenly

Gosmkkur from Eyjafjallajkull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very light.

Sjnarvottur which is present near orvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new blstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately.

"It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle.

Shortly later changed vindttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds.

Gosri increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, according to soil scientist.
Quoting Bordonaro:
From mbl.is, translated using Firefox translator:

Gosmökkurinn increased suddenly Send news Print news reading news story Share Share on ...

Facebook Deliverables Cancel Twitter Digg StumbleUpon blog about news from Gosmökkur Eyjafjallajökull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjöllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very ljós.Sjónarvottur which is present near Þorvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new bólstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately. "It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle. Shortly later changed vindáttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds. Gosórói increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, reportedly increased sharply jarðvísindamanns.Gosmökkurinn Send News Print News Print News Readings on reading the news article Share Share Share story on ...

Facebook Share Share Deliverables Cancel Share Twitter Share Share Digg StumbleUpon blog about news blog about news from Gosmökkur Eyjafjallajökull increased suddenly now available for on 17 Police and Rescue teams are under Eyjafjöllum check is said to happen. Images from inline engines can see that Mocha instrument is very light.

Sjónarvottur which is present near Þorvaldseyri said that he and his partners have seen a new bólstur step up at about 17:00, they felt just south of the crater that has erupted from the past. They told the police immediately.

"It was just a small strokes first," said reflected optical Circle.

Shortly later changed vindáttin and clouds hide wrap view of the glacier, but Mocha light steam rose from the clouds.

Gosórói increased slightly under the recommended service today afternoon. He was not more than the top in turbulence have been in recent days, according to soil scientist.


Easy for you to say! ;>)
Quoting indianrivguy:
A question.. I am watching two live feeds from "Hey ya forgot ya yogurt" to borrow a term from St. Simon, and U'm having trouble comparing the two against one another.

eyjafjallajokull-fra-thorolfsfelli which appears to be looking towards the north

and

eyjafjallajokull-fra-valahnjuk which appears to be looking towards the south, southwest?

Now the fra-thorolfsfelli view also has the actual vent depressed somewhere behind a ridge.. the plume is already spread by the time it comes into view.

The fra-valahnjuk view has us much closer to the vent and the plume is still narrow..(welll, as I wrote, it got bigger and spread out.. it still does not look the same as the other view tho.)

the question.. are they of the same vent?



Ha ha. That was so corny I never thought anyone else would use it :)
I live down here in Key West; the driest city in FL is not getting any of this weather. We've been bone dry for April! This will be my first hurricane season (I'm from AZ). Here's hoping it isn't as bad as predicted.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Easy for you to say! ;>)

The article loses something translation. However, increased seismic activity and more steam/ash is erupting suddenly than in the past few days.
I never saw a graphic quite like that one patrap.
Quoting TheTJE:
I live down here in Key West; the driest city in FL is not getting any of this weather. We've been bone dry for April! This will be my first hurricane season (I'm from AZ). Here's hoping it isn't as bad as predicted.

Make sure you read Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness, this will be a busy season.
Updated from nola.com, courtesy of JFLORIDA--still 12 missing as of 12:40 CDT Link
Quoting leftovers:
guess they have an similiar excape pod from the space station?

Yes, I believe they probably have an escape pod.
Quake was downgraded to 5.9 Mw by the USGS

Magnitude 6.2 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
2010 April 21 17:20:31 UTC

* Details
* Maps

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.2 (Preliminary magnitude %u2014 update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

* Wednesday, April 21, 2010 at 17:20:31 UTC
* Thursday, April 22, 2010 at 06:20:31 AM at epicenter

Location 15.239%uFFFDS, 172.828%uFFFDW
Depth 32 km (19.9 miles) set by location program
Region SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
Distances

* 198 km (123 miles) SW (216%uFFFD) from APIA, Samoa
* 253 km (157 miles) WSW (244%uFFFD) from PAGO PAGO, American Samoa
* 399 km (248 miles) NNE (18%uFFFD) from Neiafu, Tonga
* 2493 km (1549 miles) W (272%uFFFD) from PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=008, Nph=008, Dmin=185.4 km, Rmss=1.74 sec, Gp=166%uFFFD,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=0
Source

* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00187043

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist
Finally getting in on some of the heavy rainfall here in Melbourne. Got nothing the past few days when all the areas to the North, South, and West have ben getting flooded.
Patrap, that graphic kinda looks like a shootin' gallery...
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

More rain in SE Florida.. wettest dry season I can remember... we got almost 3" over weekend and almost another 2 last night... We normally do not get 5" of rain in 3 months during Jan - April, and we are getting that much almost every weekend lately.
Adrian, wonder why Dade county is missing these rains and not getting as much as Broward?


Hopefully we will dry out alittle before the next bunch of rain comes.

Enjoy your Wednesday!

Gams




Same thing here in central Florida, we had a massive soaking of 4.26 inches on sunday, almost double the average April MONTHLY rainfall hahaha. Reminded me of the rain that comes with our summer tropical waves.

Also we, had had heavy thunderstorms on the seabreeze monday, around another inch, and a nice steady soaking rain last night, its rained 4 days straight, since saturday, thats a big deal in April...


The thing is though, we have gotten so used to drought conditions in Florida, that this seems unusual, but remember, its not raining every day, and we aren't getting 10 inch totals. So actually this is more like normal as far as the last 100 years in Florida, Cause come the wet season, we are gonna be a whole lot wetter then just a soaking ever 4 days or so.

Most of Florida has been in a long term drought period for 6 to 10 years, we are finally coming out of it!

At last we have a small earthquake again 6.2 soloman islands.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Make sure you read Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness, this will be a busy season.


your first august in key west will have you on your knees begging for a little tropical storm or minor hurricane to blow by! without tropical storms tropical heat would be unbearable!
Quoting Jedkins01:




Same thing here in central Florida, we had a massive soaking of 4.26 inches on sunday, almost double the average April MONTHLY rainfall hahaha. Reminded me of the rain that comes with our summer tropical waves.

Also we, had had heavy thunderstorms on the seabreeze monday, around another inch, and a nice steady soaking rain last night, its rained 4 days straight, since saturday, thats a big deal in April...


The thing is though, we have gotten so used to drought conditions in Florida, that this seems unusual, but remember, its not raining every day, and we aren't getting 10 inch totals. So actually this is more like normal as far as the last 100 years in Florida, Cause come the wet season, we are gonna be a whole lot wetter then just a soaking ever 4 days or so.

Most of Florida has been in a long term drought period for 6 to 10 years, we are finally coming out of it!



I've had over 21" of rain so far this year and more maybe on the way this afternoon. A significant rain event is coming late Sunday thru Monday when many areas of C FL could get another 1 to 3".
Quoting belizeit:
At last we have a small earthquake again .


I'm thinking I never expected to see those terms in the order I just read them.

Have you been beset recently by a flurry of "big" earthquakes?
Quoting twhcracker:


your first august in key west will have you on your knees begging for a little tropical storm or minor hurricane to blow by! without tropical storms tropical heat would be unbearable!


I've been to Key West many times in the summer months and the heat there is the worst. It will literally be 91 with 90 percent humidity.
if the ash does not clear ocean cruising might be the only way back to the titanic days
Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm thinking I never expected to see those terms in the order I just read them.

Have you been beset recently by a flurry of "big" earthquakes?


LMAO too funny
Quoting Jeff9641:


I've been to Key West many times in the summer months and the heat there is the worst. It will literally be 91 with 90 percent humidity.


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!
Re: 92. Patrap

Very cool site Patrap, thanks!

Monitoring and Prediction of Modes of Coherent Tropical Variability
Quoting leftovers:
if the ash does not clear ocean cruising might be the only way back to the titanic days


Air traffic is heavy all over Europe now. You can see it here. http://www.flightradar24.com/

Now I wish I had saved a copy of what it looked liked before when everything was grounded.
Drakoen,what is the latest on the subsurface waters in the Pacific?
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!


A moist heat in SE TX, definitely!!

Here in DFW, TX, it's like you just walked into a 450F oven on our 100 F days, a "drier heat".
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


That sounds like Southeast Texas... Sometimes we run 100 degrees with nearly 80-90% humidity...you walk outside and instantly start sweating!
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here
Quoting Jeff9641:


I've had over 21" of rain so far this year and more maybe on the way this afternoon. A significant rain event is coming late Sunday thru Monday when many areas of C FL could get another 1 to 3".


21? Thats impressive, I though the 16.52 was a big deal here.

Yeah we might have some strong or severe thunderstorms with that even too. Even though they aren't mentioning it, summer like dewpoints, high PWATS near 2.00 inches and 90 degree temps will support strong thunderstorms.

The reason they aren't mentioning it, is that computer forecasts suck at forecasting severe weather when you just have air mass conditions that trigger severe weather, rather then cold front dynamics or upper support. That's we even though severe thunderstorms occur often in Florida nearly every day in the wet season, they never have severe weather in the actual forecast products, or severe weather watches.

That is because forecast models cannot detect severe weather potential from local air mass effects. Such as very warm temps in the 90's, sea breeze collisions, and the turbulent and violent, often unpredictable nature of deep tropical air masses.
Quoting Bordonaro:


A moist heat in SE TX, definitely!!

Here in DFW, TX, it's like you just walked into a 450F oven on our 100+F days, a "drier heat".


Like our son who now lives in Phoenix says, "I don't give a d*** how low the humidity is here, 120 degrees is HOT, wherever you stand."
Quoting belizeit:
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here


965 degrees?!!!! whew that's gotta be rough...lol
Quoting belizeit:
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here


Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.

Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Like our son who now lives in Phoenix says, "I don't give a d*** how low the humidity is here, 120 degrees is HOT, wherever you stand."

I know, here in the DFW area the average summer high temp is about 100F/30% humidity/ heat index about 105F. The bad thing is usually the winds a less that 10 MPH when its hot, which makes it "moderately miserable"
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


965 degrees?!!!! whew that's gotta be rough...lol
We will see if it really gets that hot but the NATIONAL METEOROLOGY should not make a mistake .
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know, here in the DFW area the average summer high temp is about 100F/30% humidity/ heat index about 105F. The bad thing is usually the winds a less that 10 MPH when its hot, which makes it "moderately miserable"


Same here.. when it gets really hot there is usually no wind.. aargh! only thing I don't like about Texas summers.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Same here.. when it gets really hot there is usually no wind.. aargh! only thing I don't like about Texas summers.

I have been in the DFW, TX for 30 years, I am used to the heat, just drink plenty of water and/or Gatorade to keep hydrated.
Quoting belizeit:
We will see if it really gets that hot but the NATIONAL METEOROLOGY should not make a mistake .



LOL! ROFL!! LOL!
Wish that's the only mistakes ours made.
Quoting Jedkins01:


21? Thats impressive, I though the 16.52 was a big deal here.

Yeah we might have some strong or severe thunderstorms with that even too. Even though they aren't mentioning it, summer like dewpoints, high PWATS near 2.00 inches and 90 degree temps will support strong thunderstorms.

The reason they aren't mentioning it, is that computer forecasts suck at forecasting severe weather when you just have air mass conditions that trigger severe weather, rather then cold front dynamics or upper support. That's we even though severe thunderstorms occur often in Florida nearly every day in the wet season, they never have severe weather in the actual forecast products, or severe weather watches.

That is because forecast models cannot detect severe weather potential from local air mass effects. Such as very warm temps in the 90's, sea breeze collisions, and the turbulent and violent, often unpredictable nature of deep tropical air masses.


Orlando international has had nearly 19" so far this year. My 2.7 last night really gave my numbers a boost.
Hiya, guys,

I've been leaving you guys in peace(?) on the main blog lately, but thought you might want to see this -- don't think anyone else has posted it(?)

6.2-magnitude earthquake strikes Samoa
55 mins ago
Associated Press

SAMOA -- The USGS says a 6.2-magnitude earthquake has hit the Samoa Islands region.

The quake struck 123 miles (198 kilometers) from the Samoa islands at a depth of 19 miles (32 kilometers).

Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.

No tsunami warning was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
9:00 PM WST April 21 2010
======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1006 hPa) located at 10.3S 116.4E or 1170 km east of Christmas Island and 1150 km north of Dampier has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.1S 115.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 11.8S 114.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.1S 112.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 14.7S 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

The low is in an area of very high ocean heat content and low to moderate vertical shear. The mid latitude trough to the southwest and the upper anticyclone just east of the LLCC are providing favourable vertical shear and outflow conditions. Microwave imagery indicates the lower level circulation is becoming more circular and focused. Overall system organisation is steadily improving. ASCAT pass at 0217Z indicates the trough lies just south of 10S and recent microwave imagery, animated VIS/IR imagery and available surface observations concur. Wind speeds are assessed as being 20-25 knots reaching 25-30 knots at times in the southern semicircle.

Shear is forecast to remain low to moderate through Friday and then increase Saturday as the system moves southwestwards towards an almost stationary large amplitude upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT...FAR SW WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211824Z - 212000Z

THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS ABOUT THE NEED
FOR A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN AND A
BAND OF STRONG MOIST ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF UT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN UT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-700
J/KG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZATION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS INTO BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINES
WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.
INVERTED-V SHAPED BL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 39141191 40031247 41501306 41891243 41791120 41061032
40000951 38870928 38050958 37541086 37801135 39141191
This is seriously interesting.

El Nino may be waning, but the weather patterns of the Eastern Pacific are still reflecting that of a powerful El Nino.

Example 1: The jet stream in North America is still plunging down the coast of California and then swinging hard to the east near Southern California.

Example 2: The easterlies are still cranking in the Tropic of Cancer from well out in the Pacific and then through Central and South America. These are the same winds that sheared the African waves of 2009 to pieces!
Quoting CycloneOz:
This is seriously interesting.

El Nino may be waning, but the weather patterns of the Eastern Pacific are reflects that of a powerful El Nino.

Example 1: The jet stream in North America is still plunging down the coast of California and then swinging hard to the east near Southern California.

Example 2: The easterlies are still cranking in the Tropic of Cancer from well out in the Pacific and then through Central and South America. These are the same winds that sheared the African waves of 2009 to pieces!


Easterlies....do you mean easterlies at the upper levels?



The things you are noticing are likely due to the Kelvin Wave currently propagating eastward over the eastern equatorial Pacific. With it is coming a burst of westerly surface winds consistent with An El Nino condition, which is raising SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region).
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.

Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.



Sheesh, I thought this upcoming weekend in Tampa was going to be sweltering!
Quoting StormW:



What's missing?




Do I get an "A" for the submitting the correct answer, LOL!!!

I have no idea what's missing! :P
Quoting Levi32:


Easterlies....do you mean easterlies at the upper levels?



The things you are noticing are likely due to the Kelvin Wave currently propagating eastward over the eastern equatorial Pacific. With it is coming a burst of westerly surface winds consistent with An El Nino condition, which is raising SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Nino 3 region).


When I say "easterlies," what I'm alluding to are winds moving towards the east.

I'm guessing I'm wrong...and those winds moving towards the east are westerlies, huh? :P
Tonga had a 6.0 earthquake about a few hours ago.
Quoting CycloneOz:


When I say "easterlies," what I'm alluding to are winds moving towards the east.

I'm guessing I'm wrong...and those winds moving towards the east are westerlies, huh? :P


Well, think of the "mid-latitude westerlies" when we are talking about the jetstream. I get it wrong a lot too lol...."easterly" means winds coming from the east. "EastWARD" means winds moving towards the east.

So what you are talking about in the eastern Pacific are anomalous surface westerlies, associated with the Kelvin Wave.

Quoting Jedkins01:


21? Thats impressive, I though the 16.52 was a big deal here.

Yeah we might have some strong or severe thunderstorms with that even too. Even though they aren't mentioning it, summer like dewpoints, high PWATS near 2.00 inches and 90 degree temps will support strong thunderstorms.

The reason they aren't mentioning it, is that computer forecasts suck at forecasting severe weather when you just have air mass conditions that trigger severe weather, rather then cold front dynamics or upper support. That's we even though severe thunderstorms occur often in Florida nearly every day in the wet season, they never have severe weather in the actual forecast products, or severe weather watches.

That is because forecast models cannot detect severe weather potential from local air mass effects. Such as very warm temps in the 90's, sea breeze collisions, and the turbulent and violent, often unpredictable nature of deep tropical air masses.


We've been dry here, under 10" so far this year even now. Although at the house last night we almost tripled the official rainfall total at KSSI 2 miles south---they got 0.21" and we had 0.60" Greened everything up around here, but still below normal rainfall.
Quoting StormW:


LMAO Oz!

The TUTT.


Well, not to be picky or anything lol, but the TUTT is primarily a summer-time feature and does not yet climatologically exist in April. Hence, I'm not sure why you say it's "missing" lol.



You can see it quite well in August:

The largest earthquake in Florida's history:

Link
Also an earthquake in the Florida panhandle Link

The description seems odd and the event is questionable as it happened at night "during a violent storm"


The storm is described as "Possibly a hurricane" That seems a tad unlikely on February 6th in the Florida panhandle too.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Also an earthquake in the Florida panhandle Link

The description seems odd and the event is questionable as it happened at night "during a violent storm"


The storm is described as "Possibly a hurricane" That seems a tad unlikely on February 6th in the Florida panhandle too.


Consider it was 1780, I'll give them a pass on calling it a hurricane.

In addition, the description states violent thunder and lightning. That also is not typical of hurricanes. This storm may have more closely resembled the 1993 Storm of the Century.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya 965 degrees for Friday Inland is nothing to mess around with. You will have problems keeping the metal objects and glass from melting.

Over 600 degrees and I really start to feel like im burning alive.

LMAO
6.2-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Samoa

Slow news day...

Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.
I was thinking a superstorm type even too. I would imagine that sorting out the damage from a moderate earthquake that happened in the middle of the 1993 superstorm would be very difficult.
Quoting belizeit:
Link You should check out or temps for Friday and be thankful your not here


At least the humidity will be low. Until Sunday/Monday. Thursday through Saturday I feel dewpoints will crash(to the 40's) each afternoon as dry air mixes to the surface(due to high pressure overhead). Choking out any chance of duirmal activity until at least Sunday.

Sunday and Monday will be a different story altogether. A combination of a strong front with daytime heat, rising humidity, and seabreeze circulations will easily destabilize the atmosphere-Producing popcorn thunderstorms especially Monday(as the front get ever closer).

Also it appears a brief cool down(70's) will commence behind that cold front for next week.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Also an earthquake in the Florida panhandle Link

The description seems odd and the event is questionable as it happened at night "during a violent storm"


The storm is described as "Possibly a hurricane" That seems a tad unlikely on February 6th in the Florida panhandle too.


There is a first person account of the 1979 one in Camping and Cruising by Dr. James Henshell, who was on a camping trip in Florida when we experienced it. The Cape Canaveral Lighthouse shook bad enough for the oil to be shaken out of it's reservoir for the wick. At Jupiter Light, the Keeper who was in the tower came down in "record" time.


My source for the 1780 one is from an article in Pensacola History Illustrated by Thomas Muir Jr. found in Jay Barnes Florida's Hurricane History book. He says the earthquake was Feb 6 1780 and that there was a "tidal wave" the source is a diary from a Spanish Priest and I have been trying to acquire it for years.

A tsunami from this event would indicate a Gulf Of Mexico origin...
Very cool stuff coming from he new SDO as of this afternoon. They now have recent imagery (today) on their You-tube channel also :)

http://www.youtube.com//SDOmission2009

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Quoting tornadofan:
6.2-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Samoa

Slow news day...

Police in the Samoan capital, Apia, say they have no reports on the temblor. "We didn't feel any earthquake," an officer, who declined to be named, said.


Didn't one or two days ago, I predicted that there would be another Earthquake? This is not surprising. Those experts that say "oh... it's only happening in more populated areas" are rubbish. Pure rubbish.
I remember when this one happened: Link It was fortunate that it didn't trigger submarine landslides--a moderate tsunami, with no real time for warnings, could have caused a lot of problems.

For that matter, a 6.0 in Orlando, Tampa, Mobile or New Orleans would be trouble too.
Anyone see the hurricane the 12z GFS develops in the EPAC?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Anyone see the hurricane the 12z GFS develops in the EPAC?



Yeah, the last few runs of the GFS have been shifting the most favorable environment for tropical development more into the eastern Pacific than the SW Caribbean.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, the last few runs of the GFS have been shifting the most favorable environment for tropical development more into the eastern Pacific than the SW Caribbean.


Yeah I noticed that as well. It would make sense for something to possibly develop there due to the fact that their season is less than a month away. Doubt it would be that strong though.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah I noticed that as well. It would make sense for something to possibly develop there due to the fact that their season is less than a month away. Doubt it would be that strong though.


Well you never know in the east Pacific, even with early-season storms. SSTs are already boiling hot over there by this time of year. Besides wind shear, the only thing that keeps the EPAC absent of storms in April is the lack of tropical disturbances or tropical waves.

What is the latest on El Nino 3.4 and the subsurface waters in the Pacific?
All Nino regions experiencing an increase in temps.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What is the latest on El Nino 3.4 and the subsurface waters in the Pacific?


Still some sub-surface warm waters to take care of.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Anyone see the hurricane the 12z GFS develops in the EPAC?



Wouldn't that be a TD, if its pressure is so high, at around 1000 mb?
Quoting Snowlover123:


Wouldn't that be a TD, if its pressure is so high, at around 1000 mb?


Global models dont have a handle on the exact pressure for tropical systems. For example, the GFS initialized Cat 5 hurricane dean at 1006 mb when it was about to make landfall on the Yucatan.
159. xcool
EPAC lmao .i wait on too see .ecmwf.
Where is Cyclone Oz this afternoon? He has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch #72, just issued by the SPC:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 72
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALHART
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
ZONE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NE NM/SE CO. THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.


...THOMPSON
Maybe out buying a NOAA Weather Alert Radio?
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe out buying a NOAA Weather Alert Radio?

That was funny :o). I figured he had at least one of them!
163. xcool
Bordonaro hi and pat too
Quoting xcool:
Bordonaro hi and pat too

Hey XCool and Patrap! Hope everyone is enjoying their Wednesday afternoon.
Quoting Levi32:


Well you never know in the east Pacific, even with early-season storms. SSTs are already boiling hot over there by this time of year. Besides wind shear, the only thing that keeps the EPAC absent of storms in April is the lack of tropical disturbances or tropical waves.


Good afternoon Levi. Can you please explain the increase in the El Nino temps?
Question. During the 2004 hurricane season, did we have ENSO neutral conditions or was it a weak El Nino? I welcome your response.......
Quoting Bordonaro:
Where is Cyclone Oz this afternoon? He has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch #72, just issued by the SPC:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 72
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALHART
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
ZONE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
NE NM/SE CO. THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32015.


...THOMPSON


Yeah...I've been watching that storm...

It's at least 4.5 hours away from me...that's quite a distance!

If I left this minute...I'd be there by 7:30 PM
Oh well, so much for trying to post that pic of the Science blog on the lil' "E" in Iceland!
Here is the link to the picture:
Link
Hiya Guys...sunny and warm in NOLA
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...I've been watching that storm...

It's at least 4.5 hours away from me...that's quite a distance!

If I left this minute...I'd be there by 7:30 PM

The joys of living in the High Desert on NM, a zillion tons of snow in the winter, then a few good storms spattered in the summer months!
Quoting xcool:
EPAC lmao .i wait on too see .ecmwf.


why is EPAC funny?
172. xcool
CycloneOz hey.
173. xcool
Hurricanes101 /imo
Quoting xcool:
Hurricanes101 /imo


Still confused, you are aware that the EPAC hurricane season begins May 15th right?

Not too farfetched that a storm can form in the EPAC in early may
Quoting xcool:
CycloneOz hey.


Hey! :)
176. xcool
Hurricanes101 yes.
Recent pic of "E" in Iceland, a view of the glacier ravine draining flood waters, the black fissure in the pic on the left:
Tornado watch out for the panhandle.

CycloneOZ is this Tornado Watch any closer to you? Severe thunderstorms will start to fire off again in parts of the TX Panhandle.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING HAS REMOVED MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG A STALLED FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY NE OF A WEAK MESOLOW NW OF LBB. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28015.
that cell in north easternmost NM corner just wont budge! flood advisories already present...
Quoting Bordonaro:

Good afternoon Levi. Can you please explain the increase in the El Nino temps?


Hey Bordo :)

It's all the Kelvin Wave's fault. The last Kelvin Wave that we have seen in a while is currently moving eastward across the east Pacific, and as it goes it has been warming the SSTs in the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions. Kelvin Waves are associated with bursts of westerly wind anomalies where strong easterly trade winds usually dominate. You can see westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific on the image below from the CPC, showing the average anomalies for the last 30 days.



Slower trades over the Pacific allow SSTs to warm. This is the same principle as in the Atlantic. Slower winds mean less evaporation and less upwelling of cooler, deeper waters. Kelvin Waves actually promote downwelling of water out in front of them, which forces warm surface water deeper and increases total upper-ocean heat content. The image below is a time-longitude plot of upper-ocean heat content anomalies for the past 12 months (edits are mine). You can see the series of strong Kelvin Waves that have moved across the Pacific this winter, represented by increases in heat content, and this current one is now beginning to move into the eastern-most Pacific.



There is also a noticable absence of warm anomalies in the western and central Pacific since about mid-March. This is because no new Kelvin Waves have developed behind the current one, unlike what has been occurring all winter. This is courtesy of the huge positive SOI burst we are having, which is restoring the easterly trade winds over the west-central Pacific, and thereby cooling the SSTs and lowering ocean heat content. If you notice, Nino 3.4 region (central Pacific) has been cooling while the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions, all in the eastern Pacific, have been warming. Once this Kelvin Wave sloshes up against South America and dissipates, SSTs should begin to gradually cool in these areas as well, and the overall decline of the El Nino will resume in all areas.
Thanks Levi :0), I understand.
Quoting Bordonaro:

The joys of living in the High Desert on NM, a zillion tons of snow in the winter, then a few good storms spattered in the summer months!


I'm not really feeling too bad about missing this storm. Here's why:

Quoting Bordonaro:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.


I mentioned Childress, TX today! :(

See Post 45...
Bord..

Quoting indianrivguy:
Bord..


I saw that earlier today, I thought that was cool also. The lovely low clouds are ruining our Volcano viewing this afternoon :0(..
Points west of Amarillo are going to get another tornado this PM...

And I am 4.5 hours away....

Too bad, so sad... :(
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm not really feeling too bad about missing this storm. Here's why:


I can understand, no fun being stuck in the middle of nowhere, as the storm floods everything around you.
Here we go again the TX Panhandle:
Quoting Bordonaro:
Here we go again the TX Panhandle:


This is unfortunate.

Quoting Levi32:


Hey Bordo :)

It's all the Kelvin Wave's fault. The last Kelvin Wave that we have seen in a while is currently moving eastward across the east Pacific, and as it goes it has been warming the SSTs in the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions. Kelvin Waves are associated with bursts of westerly wind anomalies where strong easterly trade winds usually dominate. You can see westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific on the image below from the CPC, showing the average anomalies for the last 30 days.



Slower trades over the Pacific allow SSTs to warm. This is the same principle as in the Atlantic. Slower winds mean less evaporation and less upwelling of cooler, deeper waters. Kelvin Waves actually promote downwelling of water out in front of them, which forces warm surface water deeper and increases total upper-ocean heat content. The image below is a time-longitude plot of upper-ocean heat content anomalies for the past 12 months (edits are mine). You can see the series of strong Kelvin Waves that have moved across the Pacific this winter, represented by increases in heat content, and this current one is now beginning to move into the eastern-most Pacific.



There is also a noticable absence of warm anomalies in the western and central Pacific since about mid-March. This is because no new Kelvin Waves have developed behind the current one, unlike what has been occurring all winter. This is courtesy of the huge positive SOI burst we are having, which is restoring the easterly trade winds over the west-central Pacific, and thereby cooling the SSTs and lowering ocean heat content. If you notice, Nino 3.4 region (central Pacific) has been cooling while the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions, all in the eastern Pacific, have been warming. Once this Kelvin Wave sloshes up against South America and dissipates, SSTs should begin to gradually cool in these areas as well, and the overall decline of the El Nino will resume in all areas.


Thank you for explaining in detail all the proccess about the Kevin Waves and how things stand right now.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I saw that earlier today, I thought that was cool also. The lovely low clouds are ruining our Volcano viewing this afternoon :0(..


that was the picture at the end of your link....
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport
Last Update on 21 Apr 13:53 PDT

Mostly Cloudy

57°F
(14°C)
Humidity: 49 %
Wind Speed: NW 12 G 24 MPH
Barometer: 29.77 in (1007.60 mb)
Dewpoint: 38°F (3°C)
Wind Chill: 54°F (12°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thank you for explaining in detail all the proccess about the Kevin Waves and how things stand right now.


No problem :)
Quoting indianrivguy:


that was the picture at the end of your link....

Yes, I posted it on the blog, then it disappeared, so I added it at a link instead.

Watching thunderstorms blossoming over the TX Panhandle and South Plains region, near Lubbock, TX.

Dew point in Lubbock is 58F, pretty high for the "High Desert" area of W TX.

Then we have the dryline near Midland-Odessa, TX, with dew points in the lower 40's.

SE and E winds on the east side of the dryline, SW winds behind the dryline, wind shear is pretty high, all the ingredients for super-cells!!

Higher than our current dew point of 54 on a Georgia barrier island.
Man....Saturday does not look pretty near and east of the Mississippi Valley. The 18z GFS has one heck of a low-level jet coming out of the Gulf of Mexico at 72 hours.



SPC has a large slight risk area for day 3, further west than it would be if the current GFS verifies, and that will probably go up to moderate when we get closer.

I am in Lubbock and we are under that tornado warning. Seems pretty mild outside at the moment, not much cloud. (yet!)

I think it has been caused by some of my studetns doing a rain dance....... A group of them were supposed to be doing an observing lab out at the observatory tonight!

Cheers

Ozprof
Quoting Levi32:
Man....Saturday does not look pretty near and east of the Mississippi Valley. The 18z GFS has one heck of a low-level jet coming out of the Gulf of Mexico at 72 hours.



SPC has a large slight risk area for day 3, further west than it would be if the current GFS verifies, and that will probably go up to moderate when we get closer.



Yea, just looking at that. This may be the first real widespread outbreak of the year. A large portion of the deep south and southeast will be well into the warm sector of this storms and any sunshine will just help to further destabilize the atmosphere. Saturday and Sunday will be rather interesting for sure.
Quoting Levi32:
Man....Saturday does not look pretty near and east of the Mississippi Valley. The 18z GFS has one heck of a low-level jet coming out of the Gulf of Mexico at 72 hours.



SPC has a large slight risk area for day 3, further west than it would be if the current GFS verifies, and that will probably go up to moderate when we get closer.




here is latest grapic from my blog of day 2 day 3 severe prop.
Quoting Levi32:
Man....Saturday does not look pretty near and east of the Mississippi Valley. The 18z GFS has one heck of a low-level jet coming out of the Gulf of Mexico at 72 hours.



SPC has a large slight risk area for day 3, further west than it would be if the current GFS verifies, and that will probably go up to moderate when we get closer.


That day 3 outlook was issued for Friday, not Saturday. That GFS forecast would coincide with the day 4 outlook, which matches much better (but still not perfectly).

moderate risk for thurs. and fri.
Good work 1900..and your correct.

The Local Mets and NWS Slidell are already jabber jawing on that system.

&&


Long term...
current water vapor imagery shows the next system that will affect
the area early this weekend. This upper low is still prognosticated to dig
a little farther south down the state of California before swinging
northeast towards southern Great Lakes by the end of the weekend. A
surface low will develop near the the NE/KS/co borders and move
towards the middle miss valley. Moisture will substantially increase by
Friday with dew point/S in the upper 60s that afternoon. Model soundings
are looking slightly less conducive than previous runs. Question is
whether warm layer depicted on 18z Friday soundings will erode enough
for cape to be realized. May not be very widespread but is plausible
to think so...at least north of I-12. Looking at
instability...favorable conditions increase from east to west. With
that said...looks like northwestern half of County Warning Area will have the best shot for
severe weather.


As the boundary nears the area on Saturday...pressure falls and
cooling in the middle levels bring even more unstable environment into
play. 18-00z looks to be the best time for all modes of severe weather to
develop. Li/S around -7...cape upwards of 2000j/kg and srh/S around
400m2/s2 will be quite sufficient for supercells but would like to
see more directional shear for strong rotating storms. Although
northern half of the area will be in the best setup...dont want to
completely throw out areas south of I-10. More like just less
potential.


With European model (ecmwf) coming in closer line to GFS/S faster solution...have
decided to adjust weather grids to depict a sooner ending to precipitation.
Thinking is that the western edge of the line of storms should be
east of btr/mcb/hum before midnight Sat. Sunday should be quiet weather
wise with clearing skies and slightly above norm temperatures. Similar
setup from this week for early next week. Weak northwest flow will
transition to weak ridging before next trough moves towards the
area.


Meffer
&&

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
515 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ABERNATHY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That day 3 outlook was issued for Friday, not Saturday. That GFS forecast would coincide with the day 4 outlook, which matches much better (but still not perfectly).



Oh thanks my bad....didn't check update time.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Anyone see the hurricane the 12z GFS develops in the EPAC?

Yes I saw that. Levi noticed a couple of days back that that low has been alternating from the Caribbean to the EPAC. We might have something develop in the Caribbean early in May or in the EPAC. I guess we will have to wait and see.
Does that 30% line mean that each county inside it each have a 30% chance of having a severe thunderstorm? Or that each and every point inside that line have a 30% or more chance?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Does that 30% line mean that each county inside it each have a 30% chance of having a severe thunderstorm? Or that each and every point inside that line have a 30% or more chance?


Its just like an NWS forecast or what we use here in the StormCenter - 30% of the forecast area or in this case the "hatched" or "drawn" area WILL see a certain weather event - in this case severe thunderstorms.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 PM MDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 545 PM MDT

* AT 439 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF TYRONE...OR 25 MILES NORTH OF
TRINIDAD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Possible Tornado - TORNADO WARNING - Las Animas County, CO
what is the forecast look like for sever weather for Florida the rest of spring
The ECMWF may now be seeing the potential tropical storm in the eastern Pacific as well in the long-range. It has not shown it the last several days because it only goes out to 240 hours, but the GFS is now showing development beginning around 240 hours as we get closer in time, and the Euro 12z forecast today looks to be showing a low near 100W south of Mexico around the same time at the end of the forecast run.





The last few runs of the models have been shifting the most favorable conditions for tropical development westward into the EPAC more than the SW Caribbean, but they are still expecting a significant reversal from the current troughing over the Caribbean to more of a strong equatorial ridge during the 10-15 day period. This will, at the very least, start to warm up the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico SSTs painfully fast during the beginning of May, and may also set the stage for potential tropical mischief at some point during the month.
Hello everyone! how are you guys doing i have some free time right now so i felt like posting again its hard to stop but its going to be a busy couple of days severe weather wise! see you guys soon!
Quoting ecflawthr:
what is the forecast look like for sever weather for Florida the rest of spring

Really hard to say, we have had the quietest Severe Weather Season on record so far.

The next several days, Th-Su will be very, very busy, we're looking at our first real "widespread severe weather" outbreak. Most of the Spring storms so far has been high winds/hail producers. The emphasis of this next outbreak will be leaning towards higher tornado production.

My understanding is that El Nino spring produce fewer tornadoes, La Nina spring produces more tornadoes.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Really hard to say, we have had the quietest Severe Weather Season on record so far.

The next several days, Th-Su will be very, very busy, we're looking at our first real "widespread severe weather" outbreak. Most of the Spring storms so far has been high winds/hail producers. The emphasis of this next outbreak will be leaning towards a higher tornado producer.

My understanding is that El Nino spring produce fewer tornadoes, La Nina spring produces more tornadoes.


That's true.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello everyone! how are you guys doing i have some free time right now so i felt like posting again its hard to stop but its going to be a busy couple of days severe weather wise! see you guys soon!

Hello Alex, did you receive my e-mail? We're going to see "Mother Nature" put on one "heckuva" show over the next 3-4 days.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


We've been dry here, under 10" so far this year even now. Although at the house last night we almost tripled the official rainfall total at KSSI 2 miles south---they got 0.21" and we had 0.60" Greened everything up around here, but still below normal rainfall.




Thats pretty bad... go figure that southern Georgia would be that much dryer then here... January and February were pretty normal rainfall wise, we had frequent systems due to El Nino, but too cold and dry to pick up anything really heavy. But when the warmer air and humidity arrived in March, we had an amazing 9 inches of rain for the month. April was completely dry here up until this past sunday, which we had over 4 inches of rain! Which all came in torrential rain bursts, as it often does in Florida. Now up to about 5.21 for the month since additional rain on monday and tuesday after that. April is usually the one month we count on not getting any huge rain events, but we've pulled well out of the long term drought in central Florida, so I guess even April can't be counted out for torrential downpours!
by the way has any one been following whats been going on in the gulf
and it dos not have any thing too do with the weather or mode runs has some in too do with gas
Quoting Levi32:


That's true.
La Nina allows the Jet Stream to inject drier, colder air into the mid-upper levels, adding more shear/lift dynamics to the atmosphere.
Quoting Tazmanian:
and it dos not have any thing too do with the weather or mode runs has some in too do with gas

The Southern Jet will load the atmosphere with plenty of moist, warm air. The Upper Level L will add shear/dry. cool air, makings for a widespread severe weather event.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 615 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR ADRIAN...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF VEGA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ADRIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

Quoting Bordonaro:

Really hard to say, we have had the quietest Severe Weather Season on record so far.

The next several days, Th-Su will be very, very busy, we're looking at our first real "widespread severe weather" outbreak. Most of the Spring storms so far has been high winds/hail producers. The emphasis of this next outbreak will be leaning towards higher tornado production.

My understanding is that El Nino spring produce fewer tornadoes, La Nina spring produces more tornadoes.



Thats true for the rest of the country.

But usually the opposite for Florida, weather in Florida is in a different league then the rest of the United States. What drives the weather here is different, and much harder to forecast in most cases, then the rest of the U.S. Normally EL Nino means lots of tornados and other severe weather in the spring for Florida. But we haven't had much of either this year yet, we have had plenty of heavy downpours as far as the dry season standards go, but not severe weather that usually comes with El Nino as well.
Quoting Bordonaro:

La Nina allows the Jet Stream to inject drier, colder air into the mid-upper levels, adding more shear/lift dynamics to the atmosphere.


Yup, and La Nina sets up much more of a battle-ground between cold and warm airmasses over the country.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thats true for the rest of the country.

But usually the opposite for Florida, weather in Florida is in a different league then the rest of the United States. What drives the weather here is different, and much harder to forecast in most cases, then the rest of the U.S. Normally EL Nino means lots of tornados and other severe weather in the spring for Florida. But we haven't had much of either this year yet, we have had plenty of heavy downpours as far as the dry season standards go, but not severe weather that usually comes with El Nino as well.


That's true too, since Florida is so far south. El Nino favors a more southerly jetstream which brings more of the severe weather your way instead of all off to the north.
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, and La Nina sets up much more of a battle-ground between cold and warm airmasses over the country.

If La Nina does in fact develop, next Spring will be brutal concerning severe weather.
eeeeeeek guys i this said it dos not have any thing too do with the weather


Oil rig explodes off Louisiana coast; 11 missing


Rescuers in helicopters and boats searched the Gulf of Mexico for 11 missing workers Wednesday after a thunderous explosion rocked a huge oil drilling platform and lit up the night sky with a pillar of flame. Seventeen people were injured, four critically.

The blast Tuesday night aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig 50 miles off the Louisiana coast could prove to be one of the nation's deadliest offshore drilling accidents of the past half-century.

The Coast Guard held out hope that the missing workers escaped in one of the platform's covered lifeboats.

Nearly 24 hours after the explosion, the roughly 400-by-250-foot rig continued to burn, and authorities could not say when the flames might die out. A column of boiling black smoke rose hundreds of feet over the Gulf of Mexico as fireboats shot streams of water at the blaze.

"We're hoping everyone's in a life raft," Coast Guard Senior Chief Petty Officer Mike O'Berry said.

Adrian Rose, vice president of rig owner Transocean Ltd., said the explosion appeared to be a blowout, in which natural gas or oil forces its way up a well pipe and smashes the equipment. But precisely what went wrong was under investigation.

Crews were doing routine work before the explosion and there were no signs of trouble, Rose said.

A total of 126 workers were aboard the rig when it blew up. The Coast Guard said 17 were taken by air or sea to hospitals. Four were reported in critical condition with severe burns. Others suffered burns, broken legs and smoke inhalation.

Nearly 100 other workers made it aboard a supply boat and were expected to reach the Louisiana shore by evening.

Kelly Eugene waited with nine family members for husband Kevin Eugene, 46, a cook on the Deepwater Horizon. A catering company operating on the rig notified her he was safe.

"He's on the boat. That's all we know. And that's all we need to know," she said.

The rig was tilting as much as 10 degrees after the blast, but earlier fears that it might topple over appeared unfounded. Coast Guard environmental teams were on standby, though officials said the damage to the environment appeared minimal so far.

The rig, which was under contract to the oil giant BP, was doing exploratory drilling but was not in production, Transocean spokesman Greg Panagos said. Seventy-nine Transocean workers, six BP employees and 41 contract workers were aboard.

Ted Bourgoyne, a retired professor of petroleum engineering at Louisiana State University, said the explosion was probably caused by natural gas or a mixture of oil and gas coming up through the well, combined with some kind of ignition source.

He said there are numerous defenses on a modern rig to prevent something like that from happening. For instance, fluids used in drilling are weighted with barium sulfite to prevent gas from traveling up the well, and there are alarms to alert workers to gas. Machinery is built to prevent sparking and is placed as far away as possible from places where gas might leak.

"In almost all of these things, there's not one thing that happens; it's a series of things," Bourgoyne said.

Rose said the crew had drilled the well to its final depth, more than 18,000 feet, and was cementing the steel casing at the time of the explosion.

"They did not have a lot of time to evacuate. This would have happened very rapidly," he said.

According to Transocean's website, the Deepwater Horizon is about twice the size of a football field. Built in 2001 in South Korea, it is designed to operate in water up to 8,000 feet deep, drill 5 1/2 miles down, and accommodate a crew of 130. It floats on pontoons and is moored to the sea floor by several large anchors.

The site of the accident is known as the Macondo prospect, in 5,000 feet of water.

Workers typically spend two weeks on the rig at a time, followed by two weeks off. Offshore oil workers are typically well paid, earning $40,000 to $60,000 a year _ more if they have special skills.

Last September, the Deepwater Horizon set a world deepwater record when it drilled down just over 35,000 feet at another BP site in the Gulf of Mexico, Panagos said.

"It's one of the more advanced rigs out there," he said. Panagos did not know how much the rig cost to build but said a similar one today would run $600 million to $700 million.

Kelly Eugene said her husband flew to work on the rig, and until Tuesday's explosion, that was the part of his job that scared her most. Kevin Eugene has worked in the offshore industry about 12 years and had been on the Deepwater Horizon about a month. Until now, she said, hurricane evacuations were the worst he had been through.

"My biggest fear is the helicopter ride," she said.

Working on offshore oil rigs is a dangerous job but has become safer in recent years thanks to improved training, safety systems and maintenance, said Joe Hurt, regional vice president for the International Association of Drilling Contractors.

Since 2001, there have been 69 offshore deaths, 1,349 injuries and 858 fires and explosions in the Gulf, according to the federal Minerals Management Service.

There are 42 rigs either drilling or doing upgrades and maintenance in depths of 1,000 feet or greater in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the agency. They employ an estimated 35,000 people. Transocean has 14 rigs in the Gulf and 140 worldwide.

In 1964, a catamaran-type drilling barge operated by Pan American Petroleum Corp. near Eugene Island, about 80 miles off Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, suffered a blowout and explosion while drilling a well. Twenty-one crew members died.

The deadliest offshore drilling accident took place in 1988, when an Occidental Petroleum platform about 120 miles off Aberdeen, Scotland, was rocked by explosions and fire. A total of 167 men were killed.
Good post Taz.
Quoting Levi32:


That's true too, since Florida is so far south. El Nino favors a more southerly jetstream which brings more of the severe weather your way instead of all off to the north.




Yeah, down here, cold dry air is never a good thing, when it comes to severe weather, Florida storm outbreaks are always worse as long as there's always more humidity and more warmth. Dynamic systems rarely play as much of a role down here as they do further north.

Generally what El Nino does is allow systems traveling further south, providing a low level jet, which provides a summer like feed for deep convection, its the key to spring time severe weather in Florida.


Thats why we normally do not get much of any hail, or long lived super cells. Severe weather in Florida is more tropical based. Breakouts of high precipitation pulse-severe thunderstorms that occur in massive squalls or large multi-cellular complexes. This type of severe weather often produces massive lightning shows, extremely heavy rain in blinding bursts, lots of wet micro burst damage, and numerous weak and and hard to predict tornados.

Generally large long lived lone super cells with huge hail and monster tornados do not occur in Florida weather
and here comes higher gas too follow
Levi32, the 30 day SOI index continues its upward motion,now at 12.0.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi32,the 30 day SOI index continues its upward motion,now at +12.0.

Link


Yeah, amazing isn't it. It refuses to go back down.
Quoting Tazmanian:
and here comes higher gas too follow

Hey Taz I have to say 1 oil rig out of over 2000 want make gas go higher but let 1 "Hurricane" come into the gulf then we have "Higher Gas"....

:0)
Dr. Masters, just an open question, what will you post for Earth Day?
Search for 11 missing after explosion to continue through the night

The search for 11 missing workers from a Gulf of Mexico rig that exploded late Tuesday continued into Wednesday evening even as the Coast Guard Commander confirmed that they "have no idea where they are.”

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, amazing isn't it. It refuses to go back down.


It means the trade winds in the WestCentral Pacific are more stronger right?
Jedkins, unless a very unusual pattern happens, we will stay dry for the next couple months . Our ocean temp fell to the lowest since 1989 this winter, and even now is 64/65. Seabreezes will continue to be even stronger than usual this spring, which means afternoon convection will be blown inland before it gets a chance to form. Only frontal approaches and maybe moist winds from the east will give us any rain. And with the ocean still 4 degrees cooler than normal, the dew point/moisture content of maritime air will be below normal as well.


Quoting Chucktown:


Its just like an NWS forecast or what we use here in the StormCenter - 30% of the forecast area or in this case the "hatched" or "drawn" area WILL see a certain weather event - in this case severe thunderstorms.


Thanks Chucktown!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It means the trade winds in the WestCentral Pacific are more stronger right?


Yes, the trades have been getting stronger over the last couple weeks, which has cooled SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi32, the 30 day SOI index continues its upward motion,now at 12.0.

Link


Is this an indication of El Nino dying or staying?
The 18z GFS, although still playing around in the eastern Pacific, has backed off on significant development. However, of more interest to me is the overall pattern being consistently predicted by the model. Most of the models agree on a reversal in the current upper-level pattern over the Caribbean during the first week of May, with an upper-level high developing over the Caribbean. This could provide a favorable low-shear environment for possible tropical mischief to be watched for during the month of May in the western Caribbean. Even if it doesn't, the result of this pattern will mean very warm temperatures over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, which will warm SSTs at a dizzying rate in those areas which are still currently well-below normal.

384-hour 200mb winds/heights:

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Is this an indication of El Nino dying or staying?


Dying. A positive SOI promotes a more normal Walker Circulation pattern in the equatorial Pacific, and since El Nino is the opposite of normal, this has a dissipating effect on the El Nino.

We haven't had a 30-day SOI this high in over a year. The last time it was this high was in February of 2009.

Looks like a cyclone forming off the WA coast. At this time of the year it has the potential to recurve down the west coast, though it does look like there could be a high ridging underneath it which could push it out to sea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml
oops double post.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think it was a very weak El Nino. Or I could be reading it wrong. Link


chucky7777 4:07 PM CDT on April 21, 2010 Hide this comment.
Question. During the 2004 hurricane season, did we have ENSO neutral conditions or was it a weak El Nino? I welcome your response.....
Tropical cyclone forming 91S



Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think it was a very weak El Nino. Or I could be reading it wrong. Link


chucky7777 4:07 PM CDT on April 21, 2010 Hide this comment.
Question. During the 2004 hurricane season, did we have ENSO neutral conditions or was it a weak El Nino? I welcome your response.....


Correct, it was a weak El Nino which was building throughout the summer.

ONI Index: Weak is defined as between +0.5C and +1.0C

Flint Hills Centered Rainbow Floater Still Image

Tornado Watch Area



RGB Channel

91S



Rainbow

Quoting ozprof:
Looks like a cyclone forming off the WA coast. At this time of the year it has the potential to recurve down the west coast, though it does look like there could be a high ridging underneath it which could push it out to sea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml

Slow intensification
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Longitude Intensity
201004211800 -11.5 116.6 30
201004211200 -10.6 115.9 30
201004210600 -10.1 116.4 25
201004210000 -10 116.7 25
201004201800 -9.9 116.8 25
201004201200 -10.2 117 15
201004200600 -9.8 113.6 15
201004200000 -9.9 113.9 15
201004191200 -9.9 114.7 15
201004190000 -10.2 116.5 15



Hey patrap im off for the night and will be posting cool rgb image i love severe weather on rgb one moment there is nothing and all of a sudden boom!
RGB a good tool at Night for sure
Not a big deal, but the latest Kelvin wave has brought Nino 3.4 up to .6 or so. All other regions are warming as well. We should see significant cooling by the end of next week.

Good thing 91s is moving away from land at the moment.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not a big deal, but the latest Kelvin wave has brought Nino 3.4 up to .6 or so. All other regions are warming as well. We should see significant cooling by the end of next week.



The Kelvin Wave's effects on the 3.4 region are long gone. It's too far east to affect anything except the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions. I think one day of slight warming can be attributed to random variation. The overall trend for the last 10 days has been all down.
Quoting Levi32:
The 18z GFS, although still playing around in the eastern Pacific, has backed off on significant development. However, of more interest to me is the overall pattern being consistently predicted by the model. Most of the models agree on a reversal in the current upper-level pattern over the Caribbean during the first week of May, with an upper-level high developing over the Caribbean. This could provide a favorable low-shear environment for possible tropical mischief to be watched for during the month of May in the western Caribbean. Even if it doesn't, the result of this pattern will mean very warm temperatures over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, which will warm SSTs at a dizzying rate in those areas which are still currently well-below normal.

384-hour 200mb winds/heights:

Great analysis. Do you see anything tropical forming in the Caribbean in early May?
Quoting Levi32:


The Kelvin Wave's effects on the 3.4 region are long gone. It's too far east to affect anything except the Nino 1, 2, and 3 regions. I think one day of slight warming can be attributed to random variation. The overall trend for the last 10 days has been all down.


When do you think we'll officially reach neutral status?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Great analysis. Do you see anything tropical forming in the Caribbean in early May?


Conditions may be favorable, but there must be a tropical disturbance, and if the models continue to trend towards eastern Pacific development instead, especially if the ECMWF locks on, then chances are greatly lessened for the Caribbean. May mischief in the Caribbean generally has to come, at least in part, from the Pacific. They are generally systems that play around with Central America and advecting moisture out of the east Pacific, such as Arthur in 2008. The MJO upward-motion pulse is forecasted to be over Central America during the first week of May, so it could go either way, but if any potential development starts to consolidate most of the heat in the Pacific, then the Caribbean's chances drop dramatically.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


When do you think we'll officially reach neutral status?


They want a 3-month average, so it could be a while, but the state of the Pacific should reach a solid neutral point sometime in early June, and then dip below zero and head towards weak La Nina conditions in the following months.
The Caribbean and Gulf continue to warm up...

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
9:00 AM WST April 22 2010
======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 11.7S 116.0E or 1130 km east of Christmas Island and 1000 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.2/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 115.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 13.5S 114.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.7S 112.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 15.3S 111.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Addition Information
=====================
Overnight convection has been focussed about the low level circulation centre although the areal extent and curved band/peripheral convective features remain weak.

Dvorak intensity based on overnight CCC pattern so devopment trend is continued; MET=2.5 PAT=2.0 and FT/CI=2.0. [supported by possible 0.3 curved band on 23UTC vis image].

The low remains in an area of low vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content [SST>30C] and upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude strong mid-latitude trough to the southwest; all features conducive for further development. These environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 36 hours so development is forecast although the rate remains somewhat uncertain. If convection can persist during the day [diurnal minimum] then seems likely that cyclone intensity will be reached within 12-24 hours.

During Saturday the shear should increase as the system moves southwestwards towards the near stationary upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
Interesting article from the Airline Industry Review, about planes experiencing ash related damage and or problems. I know hundred of thousands have been stranded for 5 + days, but is it really safe to fly in volcanic ash, although it has been dispersed?

Link
The warm Caribbean waters are making their way into the Gulf.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The Caribbean and Gulf continue to warm up...



Is the Indian ocean just bathwater year round?? wow
Quoting winter123:


Is the Indian ocean just bathwater year round?? wow


Check out the loop current:
Quoting winter123:


Is the Indian ocean just bathwater year round?? wow

Yes, it most certainly is a very warm body of water near the Equator northward into the Bay of Bengal, near India.
So, how hot do ya'll think the water is going to get this season in the GOM? My favorite buoy is on it's way to the magic number...

Conditions at 42360 as of
(7:00 pm CDT on 04/21/2010)
0000 GMT on 04/22/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 °F
Which is scarier?

2005

2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Which is scarier?

2005

2010


Now without a doubt.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Which is scarier?

2005

2010

I would say 2010.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Which is scarier?

2005

2010


2010. Those two images don't even make the gulf look that much colder this year.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Interesting article from the Airline Industry Review, about planes experiencing ash related damage and or problems. I know hundred of thousands have been stranded for 5 + days, but is it really safe to fly in volcanic ash, although it has been dispersed?

Link


I just saw that too. Are you stuck on the scienceblog too? lol Some of that stuff is waaaaay over my pea brain, but informative none the less.
From what I read they really don't know the effects of light ash. Heavy concentrations is obvious. Since they are not even sure of how much ash is really in the air, it makes things difficult. It seems a concern is also cumulative effect, and the only way to find out is to fly and keep checking over time. I heard on the news tonight that one of the US airlines had a mechanic on every trans Atlantic flight.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Which is scarier?

2005

2010


Now and which will likely continue to be the trend as the focus of the heat will be in the Caribbean in the ASO period.
April 22,2010.This is the day the LORD has made!!
Quoting Levi32:


2010. Those two images don't even make the gulf look that much colder this year.


I only see a 1C difference now in the GOM between 2010 and 2005
Amarillo NWS report on the Apr 20, 2010 the 2 tornadoes, both rated EF 0:
Link
Quoting Levi32:


2010. Those two images don't even make the gulf look that much colder this year.


The Gulf is quickly catching up. Not surprising considering the recent warm weather and the fact that it is the shallowest part of our Basin.
Quoting Drakoen:


I only see a 1C difference now in the GOM between 2010 and 2005


Yeah. I think that will be erased very quickly during early May with the pattern that is coming up.
On a side note those graphics from NRL global NCOM are much more appealing than AOML.
Over the past 20 days or so the waters south of Louisiana have warmed about 5 to 6 degrees.

Looks like we're going to a have substantial warming period in the Gulf and Caribbean over the next month. I wouldn't be surprised that by the end of May, we're above normal in the Gulf and much above normal in the Caribbean.
Quoting Drakoen:
On a side note those graphics from NRL global NCOM are much more appealing than AOML.


Yea, you can see the ocean currents at work.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I just saw that too. Are you stuck on the scienceblog too? lol Some of that stuff is waaaaay over my pea brain, but informative none the less.
From what I read they really don't know the effects of light ash. Heavy concentrations is obvious. Since they are not even sure of how much ash is really in the air, it makes things difficult. It seems a concern is also cumulative effect, and the only way to find out is to fly and keep checking over time. I heard on the news tonight that one of the US airlines had a mechanic on every trans Atlantic flight.

Those folks on the volcano blog are pretty smart, most of that info is also "over my head". Alot of talk about them trying to determine what the earthquakes are telling them about "E" in Iceland. Hopefully the web-cams will clear up for tomorrow.

I understand the airlines have lost $1.7 billion, but if planes are experiencing engine damage/problems, they need to understand even 1 unfortunate accident will cost people their very lives, cost them millions in damages from lawsuits and probably shut down all European air traffic.
Quoting Drakoen:
On a side note those graphics from NRL global NCOM are much more appealing than AOML.


Its a shame that AOML hasn't updated in six days.

It would be interesting to see the TCHP maps.
Quoting Drakoen:
On a side note those graphics from NRL global NCOM are much more appealing than AOML.


Also, the SST archive goes back much further. :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its a shame that AOML hasn't updated in six days.

It would be interesting to see the TCHP maps.


What's the deal with that? Did their server crash or something? Out of funding?
Quoting SevereHurricane:


What's the deal with that? Did their server crash or something? Out of funding?


I know last year they ran out of funding then somehow managed to come back. Not sure whats happening this time.
Blog rather busy.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Is that temperature scale in Celsius or Fahrenheit?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I know last year they ran out of funding then somehow managed to come back. Not sure whats happening this time.


They'll be back. Were only 13 trillion in debt.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Is that temperature scale in Celsius or Fahrenheit?


Celsius.
The dip in the NAO has really allowed temperatures to warm, especially in the Caribbean; the Gulf of Mexico should have no problems reaching average levels.
On the 18z GFS there seems to be an area of disturbed weather parallel to the Florida border to the east. Although unlikely anything will happen, it is something to keep yourself entertained for a while, lol.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On the 18z GFS there seems to be an area of disturbed weather parallel to the Florida border to the east. Although unlikely anything will happen, it is something to keep yourself entertained for a while, lol.



*By the way this is 384 hours.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Celsius.


6C of warming in the last month off the Louisiana Coastline? Very impressive...
Wow, I've never seen wind shear at such a high value. Already 100 knots and gaining:

Quoting Drakoen:
The dip in the NAO has really allowed temperatures to warm, especially in the Caribbean; the Gulf of Mexico should have no problems reaching average levels.


Could stick around for a while.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On the 18z GFS there seems to be an area of disturbed weather parallel to the Florida border to the east. Although unlikely anything will happen, it is something to keep yourself entertained for a while, lol.



Gotta Love GFS fantasy land. Notice how warm The Yucatan Peninsula and The African Continent is.
Quoting help4u:
April 22,2010.This is the day the LORD has made!!
no help4u
Looks like we could see some warming of the Western Gulf as well.
Have a great night! See ya'll tomorrow.
321. xcool



Quoting xcool:





Wow.
Anybody noticed or commented on the dip in the ITCZ lately? Not following the sun. Sags below the equator at about 25W Long. Seems like its moving the wrong way at the moment.
Quoting msphar:
Anybody noticed or commented on the dip in the ITCZ lately? Not following the sun. Sags below the equator at about 25W Long. Seems like its moving the wrong way at the moment.

Havent been following it too much but if it lags south in the atlantic it would only serve to reduce cloudiness over the MDR which cant be good :)
325. xcool
yeah
drak .. do we have a comparable '05 OHC map?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, I've never seen wind shear at such a high value. Already 100 knots and gaining:


I've seen 140kts above Australia. Mostly in winter. Running at 120kts above Perth, Western Australia at the moment as seen below.
329. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:

Quoting SouthALWX:
drak .. do we have a comparable '05 OHC map?


No, unfortunately, they only go back to 2009
Quoting SouthALWX:
drak .. do we have a comparable '05 OHC map?


2005:



2010:

Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



Too bad AOML isn't updating...
I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I'm going to call AOML tomorrow to find out whats the deal with the water temperature maps not updating.


That would be nice to know.
Quoting Levi32:


2005:



2010:



2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005
@ Levi ... without the date posted looking at either map I probably couldn't have told you which was which. thats not good.
What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.

Quoting Levi32:
What's up with these maps.....depth of 26C isotherm? I don't think SSTs are 26C all the way up to 40N right now.


maybe it's Fahrenheit ;)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2005 dropped significantly in TCHP after April 15th. Then between April 20-25 there is an exponential increase in SST's and TCHP. This increase is what made the season very interesting.

We'll need quite a burst of warm temps to match that magnitude of TCHP and SST's.
-------------------------------------------
Amazing increase.
April, 20 2005


April, 25 2005


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.
Quoting FloridaTigers:


It'd be interesting to see how long it takes for the SST's to reach that 4/25/05 point.


Probably early May if things continue to warm at this rate.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no help4u


lol lol lol
344. xcool
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.
These SDO images & movies are great.
Quoting xcool:
look at 2010 vs 2005 biggg different.

I actually thought the looked remarkably similar...
347. xcool
39 Days until Hurricane Season yayyyyy
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide ’splash’ waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.
here is a compare map april 20 2005 and 2010
350. xcool
i'm ready for the season now ......





GFS
SPC 0600Z update. Th 4-22 & Fr 4-23-/10 will be a BUSY days. This is the "Hail Threat" for both days:


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 13U
3:00 PM WST April 22 2010
======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 12.4S 115.7E or 1110 km east of Christmas Island and 940 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 115.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.7S 113.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.8S 111.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.5S 109.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Addition Information
=====================
Convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre although the areal extent and curved band/peripheral convective features remain relatively weak. The most recent microwave imagery does suggest some improvement in the convective band. Dvorak intensity: DT=2.0 based on 0.3 curved band; D- 24h trend gives MET=2.0, PAT=2.0, and hence FT/CI=2.0.

The low remains in an area of low vertical wind shear, very high ocean heat content [SST>30C] and upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude strong mid-latitude trough to the southwest; all features conducive for further development. These environmental conditions are expected to continue in the next 36 hours so development is forecast although the rate remains somewhat uncertain and models do not favour rapid intensification. It is possible that the circulation may be smaller than is normal, supported by the current extent of convection. This may result in greater fluctuations in intensity than is typical.

During Saturday the shear should increase as the system moves southwestwards towards the near stationary upper trough. By Sunday the system will be under strong northwesterly shear and will be over lower SSTs and should be steadily weakening. By Monday the system should be weak and beginning to be steered by lower level winds out towards the west as deep convection is sheared away.
KOG 349, Re: SST's 2005 vs 2010, great similarity. Southern GOM/BOC appears slightly cooler this year than 2005. So why do I have a bad feeling about the BOC for early this season?
Quoting xcool:
39 Days until Hurricane Season yayyyyy
madness begins good morning
Morning all, 39 days to Hurricane season.
Heading out the door, going to be a warm one today in FL in my neck of the woods!
Quoting Skyepony:
Top scientists call for research on climate link to volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
April 19, 2010

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the solid Earth, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. This response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a wide range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and sub-aerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide %u2019splash%u2019 waves glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilisation. Looking ahead, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a world warmed by anthropogenic climate change, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere.


If we could just eradicate mankind, then the Earth would be able to orbit in peace. Darn...

Are these scientists or blithering idiots?

As predicted, it did not take but a handful of months for people to say that ANTHROPOGENIC (fancy!) climate change is the root cause for EVERYTHING that happens on the Earth.
357. SLU


Happy Earth Day
Good morning and Happy Earth Day. There is new invest 90W in the WPAC basin.

Link
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
Latest CFS SST forecast for September is downright scary. It has us as warm as the Indian ocean!
363. IKE
This year has the potential to be bad in the Atlantic. That's all I'll say about it. I'll leave it at that.

The clock is ticking....

Down to....

952 hours...
30 minutes...and it starts....
Quoting CycloneOz:




Wow! Stellar!
"stellar." Nice word choice for this lol.
365. ackee
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF updated its forecast maps and it looks 2x more scary than the last one. Heres a link to them all. The whole basin is below average in terms of MSLP. Alos the SST and rain forecasts look pretty interesting as well.

MSLP for JJA.


MSLP for JAS
look on seasonal rain and sea pressure for carrbbean really looks bad any thoughts
Good morning. Gorgeous day here in ECFL except for the chain saw going out front because the power lines were eaten away by the trees!
I am looking forward to reading Dr. Masters' Earth Day blog.
Running out of water...
Link
The ECMWF updated is lower with the MSLP

Not sure if this is updated, but here's the Nino 3.4 plume. La Nina by August?

ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.

373. IKE
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
Whoa! Not liking this.

2005:


2010:
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...

Yeah...reminds me of the conversations my father (an engineer for AT&T) used to have with me. I'd pretend to understand and listen but really had only a vague idea of what he was talking about! I think it helped him to frame his thoughts and figure things out though. Prolly kinda like talking to your pet.
Quoting IKE:
Not a lot of trolls on here this team of year. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end...just wait til the heart of the season.

I noticed Accuweather is forecasting around 90 for me by May 1st.
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's
Quoting presslord:
ya know....reading back over the posts here...it's just stunning what a wealth of information is available here...


Its a great learning environment.
Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit worried. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



It's also scary because the waters in that area are very deep.
Quoting hurricane23:
Nino region 1 2 has me a bit concerned. Those below average pressures from the ECMWF are insane. Updated heat content.



Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?
380. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just think t2 months ago you were in the 20 and 30's


And February 12th it snowed here.
381. IKE
NEW BLOG!
new blog
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why El Nino 1-2 has you concerned?


In short terms...El Niño-like characteristics may linger for a while.
Exactly my feelings Presslord. When I logged on several years ago. I loved weather but didn't really no much, you hang around here long enough you realize how much you don't know, but at least you know where to go and who to listen too. Everyone good luck this season it looks like we are going to need some. Futures market in oil looking very tempting, sad to say.