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The U.S. Climate of 2014: Remarkable Hot, Cold, Wet and Dry Extremes

By: Bob Henson 4:17 PM GMT on January 12, 2015

How you experienced the climate of 2014 depended a great deal--by some measures, more than any year in U.S. history--on where in the nation you happened to be. This was made abundantly clear in the full 2014 report on U.S. temperatures and precipitation, released this morning by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). When looking at the entire contiguous 48 states, the annual rankings aren't especially striking: the year placed 34th warmest and 40th wettest out of 120 years of data. The overall warmth comes as no surprise, given that every year since 1996 has placed above the nation's long-term temperature average.

These unremarkable statistics obscure the real story of 2014: the titanic contrast between a parched, scorched West (especially California, where the heat left all-time records in the dust), a very warm New England and Florida, and a much cooler area in between, with some months at or near all-time record lows in states stretching from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.

NCDC's state-by-state map of 2014 temperature rankings (see Figure 1) tells the tale vividly. California, Nevada, and Arizona all saw their hottest year on record, going back to 1895. The year placed among the top-twenty warmest in most of the other western states, as well as in Maine. At the same time, a corridor of seven central states--Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan--saw 2014 place among their top-ten coolest years.


Figure 1. State-by-state rankings for annual average temperature in 2014. A ranking of 1 denotes the coolest year in the 120-year record, while 120 denotes the warmest. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.

Another way to look at these contrasts is through the statistical lens of NCDC's Climate Extremes Index. The CEI is made up of five different indicators that show how much of the nation experienced a particular type of weather extreme. Two of the indicators relate to the percentage of the nation experiencing either unusually warm or cold daily highs or unusually warm or cold daily lows (averaged from month to month in both cases). Some 23.2% of the contiguous U.S. qualified as having unusually warm highs for the year, which is the 18th-largest percentage out of the past 120 years. The percentage of the nation experiencing unusually cold highs (18.6%) ranks 21st. What's especially intriguing is that this is the first year on record that both the warm-high and cold-high percentages have exceeded 15%, a sign of how difficult it is to sustain such wildly divergent temperature regimes between the Pacific and Atlantic for an entire year. Overall, using all the elements of the CEI, 2014 ranked as the 9th most extreme year since 1910 (excluding the impact of tropical cyclones), or the 19th most extreme when including the impact of tropical cyclones. Interestingly, for the second year in a row, daily record low minimums occurred more often than daily record high maximums (20,937 vs. 14,122). This trend is unlikely to continue; the opposite occurred for a number of years prior to 2013.

The Midwest and Southern chill established itself early, with a series of cold-air outbreaks that came to be associated with the term "polar vortex". (That phrase's meaning became so mangled in press coverage and popular understanding that it led the American Meteorological Society to update its official definition). Colder-than-average weather persisted across much of the central and east until May and June, which came in above average in most states. Midsummer saw a return to strikingly cool weather across the nation's heartland. The pattern was even more unusual--and pleasant for millions of residents--in that it was accompanied by relatively dry weather. It was the coolest July on record for Arkansas and Indiana, and the second coolest in Illinois, Mississippi, and Missouri.

After the west-to-east contrast eased somewhat in late summer and early autumn, a record-setting Arctic outbreak in November reestablished the cold-east/warm-West pattern once more, leading to the second-coldest November on record for Alabama and Mississippi. Finally, just in time for the holidays, the 48 states got on the same temperature track, with unusual mildness nationwide producing the second-warmest December on record. Alaska joined in as well: the state's 19 first-order weather stations were a collective 7.5°F above average for the month, and Fairbanks saw its second warmest December in its 111-year record, according to the Alaska Climate Research Center. Overall, 2014 was Alaska's warmest year in a 97-year period of record, with an average statewide temperature 4°F above the average for 1971-2000.


Figure 2. State-by-state rankings for annual average precipitation in 2014. A ranking of 1 denotes the driest year in the 120-year record, while 120 denotes the wettest. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.

Days of deluge
The national precipitation ranking and the state-by-state maps (see Figure 2) hide some dramatic contrasts as well. Most of the year was extremely dry in California, even though the state ended up near average for total annual precipitation. Elsewhere, intense bouts of precipitation made the headlines in a number of spots. Day after day of extreme rain pushed the June precipitation totals across parts of the Midwest into record-obliterating territory. Sioux Falls, South Dakota, received 13.70" for the month, with more than half of that falling in just three calendar days. The town of Canton broke South Dakota's monthly precipitation record with 19.65".

Several major one-day rainfall events emerged from an extremely moist summer air mass that slathered much of the eastern United States in early August. Detroit experienced its second-heaviest calendar-day rainfall (4.57") on August 11, as did Baltimore on August 12 (6.30"). Even more impressive was the 13.57" that fell at Islip, New York, on August 11-12. The downpour set a new state record for 24-hour rainfall, which is especially noteworthy given that a tropical cyclone was not directly involved. A few weeks later, not to be outdone, Phoenix set an all-time calendar-day rainfall record on September 8 with 3.29", fed by deep moisture from ex-Hurricane Norbert.


Figure 3. A highway in Brentwood, New York, resembles an infinity pool after more than a foot of rain fell across parts of central Long Island on August 11-12, 2014. WunderPhoto credit: Hurricane765.

The NCDC's Climate Extremes Index lends some statistical backing to this anecdotal portrait of deluges. The "extremes in 1-day precipitation" indicator measures how much precipitation for the year fell in calendar days with extreme amounts (equal to the wettest tenth percentile of all days). Some 15.3% of the nation saw a much-above-average number of days fall into this category for 2014. That's a bit less than the 2013 value of 16.3%, but still enough to put it at 11th highest of the past 120 years. Notably, all of the top seven years for this index, and 13 of the top 15 years, have occurred since 1990.

Wet days getting wetter, and droughts getting hotter
The recent uptick in extreme one-day precipitation totals across the nation is consistent with more than a decade of research showing that many parts of the world, including the United States, are seeing their heaviest bouts of rain and snow getting even heavier over time. This conclusion was reinforced on a national and regional scale in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment and on a city-by-city scale in a study by Brian Brettschneider (Boreas Scientific LLC) highlighted by Weather Underground blogger Chris Burt last August. The result is also consistent with the basic concept that a warming planet will see an increase in hydrologic contrasts, as warmer temperatures allow for more water to evaporate from lakes, oceans, and plants--helping boost the output of rainstorms and snowstorms--while sucking more water from already-parched land, intensifying the effects of drought.

This process is vital to keep in mind when taking stock of the California drought, arguably the nation's most catastrophic weather event of the year. Although calendar year 2013 was the state's driest on record, the water year of 2013–14 (July to June) placed third driest. (Water years are the most commonly used index for assessing California precipitation, which occurs mainly in the fall through spring). A NOAA-led study released in December found that the severity of drought conditions over the last three water years--looking only at rainfall--is within the realm of natural variability, with 1974–75 to 1976–77 even drier than the period from 2011–12 to 2013–14. However, the temperatures associated with the more recent drought went well beyond what one would expect from historical analogs (see Figure 4), which has made the impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and people even more severe. The NOAA study acknowledged, "record-setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming." In a similar fashion, the intense Texas drought of 2011 was associated with all-time temperature records established during the brutal, more prolonged droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. As states and regions consider how best to adapt to drought conditions in the future, they would be well advised to consider the possibility that temperatures during drought periods could soar beyond anything observed in more than a century of experience.


Figure 4. The annual average temperature for California in 2014 came in far above the previous record for the last 120 years, and it was roughly 4°F above the 20th-century average. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 5. A lone weed grows on an unplanted field on August 21, 2014 in Firebaugh, California. As the severe California drought continued for a third straight year, Central California farming communities struggled to survive, with an unemployment rate nearing 40 percent in the towns of Mendota and Firebaugh. Photo credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Thanks for the detailed report, Mr. Henson.
Interesting that cali had a near average year in rain. hmmmm, thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Thank you for the detailed great discussion about this important topic.
Thank you very much for that Mr Henson.
It took quite a lot of reading but it was worth it by the end.

I am particularly concerned by the Californian drought problems, from the point of view of food productions right through to what might turn out to be general over population of the area bearing in mind water resource requirements.

I think this year could be crucial to the short term outlook for California as when the barrel is empty there is no way to replenish it from a water point of view.

Thank you again, you raised some interesting points in the blog heading.
Quoting 3. jpsb:
Interesting that cali had a near average year in rain. hmmmm, thanks for the update Mr. Henson.


I've always thought the categories on those statewide rank images are oversimplified. For precipitation at least, I'd like to see it expressed as a percentage of "average". California tends to be very much "feast or famine" when it comes to precip, so there are very few "average" years.
Thanks for the update.
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From Miami NWS Disco...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1034 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015

.UPDATE...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MID-UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SSW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST/FL PANHANDLE REGION. THE EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
KEY WEST OVER THE SERN GULF. THIS CLOUD COVERAGE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND/GULF COAST AREAS TODAY,
IF IT REMAINS IN PLACE OR FAILS TO SCATTER OUT. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REDUCED A FEW DEGREES IN THE MORNING UPDATE.
THE LATEST MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN KEYS/SRN MIAMI-DADE AND GENERALLY
INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
LATER TODAY, INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION CONSIDERING THE
CLOUD COVERAGE. 85/AG

A most sobering fact


A NOAA-led study released in December found that the severity of drought conditions over the last three water years--looking only at rainfall--is within the realm of natural variability, with 1974–75 to 1976–77 even drier than the period from 2011–12 to 2013–14. However, the temperatures associated with the more recent drought went well beyond what one would expect from historical analogs (see Figure 4), which has made the impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and people even more severe. The NOAA study acknowledged, "record-setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming." In a similar fashion, the intense Texas drought of 2011 was associated with all-time temperature records established during the brutal, more prolonged droughts of the 1930s and 1950s.

As states and regions consider how best to adapt to drought conditions in the future, they would be well advised to consider the possibility that temperatures during drought periods could soar beyond anything observed in more than a century of experience.
Quoting 3. jpsb:

Interesting that cali had a near average year in rain. hmmmm, thanks for the update Mr. Henson.


Yes, on the dry end of near average (44) with the median being 60. As for temperature, they were the hottest ever at 120. What do above average temperatures with near average rainfall mean? Drought. Interesting indeed.

Yes, on the dry end of near average (44) with the median being 60. As for temperature, they were the hottest ever at 120. What do above average temperatures with near average rainfall mean? Drought. Interesting indeed.


and as of now...the department of water is anticipating only being able to deliver ten percent of the water that has been requested by localities
Well over two-thirds of the US was either near average or below average temperature.....With SC 25 on the horizon should be the new norm.....
Quoting 12. ricderr:

Yes, on the dry end of near average (44) with the median being 60. As for temperature, they were the hottest ever at 120. What do above average temperatures with near average rainfall mean? Drought. Interesting indeed.


and as of now...the department of water is anticipating only being able to deliver ten percent of the water that has been requested by localities



Sure enough, and it's not like the population of California is decreasing either.
Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic region Drakeon.You will eventually see what I'm talking about in terms of horrid drivers.
Quoting 13. yoboi:

Well over two-thirds of the US was either near average or below average temperature.....With SC 25 on the horizon should be the new norm.....






Don't forget that soon to be declared warmest year on record. There is no sign of a cool down.
Rain!!!
So far just some sprinkles here, but it's looking good for some decent rain today!
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:

Rain!!!
So far just some sprinkles, but it looks good for some decent rain today!



That nasty looking line of thunderstorms seems to be training toward the nature coast. It will be interesting to see how far west that goes. This already looks impressive and the convection hasn't even started firing up on the east coast or near Orlando.
Thank You Mr. Henson. Still trying to wrap my head around this excellent Blog and all of the very detailed information. Somewhere in all of that information (The result is also consistent with the basic concept that a warming planet will see an increase in hydrologic contrasts, as warmer temperatures allow for more water to evaporate from lakes, oceans, and plants--helping boost the output of rainstorms and snowstorms) is a potential correlation (for us tropical weather watchers) now or down the line with the drought conditions experienced in places in South America (like Brazil recently) and lots of the dry stable air in the tropical atlantic that has caused some of the storms and waves crossing from africa (in the central-atlantic) having trouble developing, even in some low shear environments, because of anomalous dry air issues.

Interesting times ahead for sure and thank you for one of the best blogs I have read in a long time.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


That nasty looking line of thunderstorms seems to be training toward the nature coast. It will be interesting to see how far west that goes. This already looks impressive and the convection hasn't even started firing up on the east coast or near Orlando.


Yep, the moisture feed is training right over the Nature Coast. Hopefully, we'll see the majority of the precipitation shift to the south later today into tonight.
Science is doomed as doomed can be.

Ted Cruz, Longtime Foe Of NASA And Science, Will Oversee NASA And Science In New Congress
By Ashley Alman


Following the ratification of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) as chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was named chair of the Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness, where he will oversee NASA and science programs.

It looks as if we are going to need a boat this afternoon. Short range models have done an excellent job in consistently depicting 2" to 4" of rain all across Orlando later today.




Here's the HRRR model that just updated as of 14Z. Incredible!


Quoting 13. yoboi:

Well over two-thirds of the US was either near average or below average temperature.....With SC 25 on the horizon should be the new norm.....


The future normal might be near the historical average to warmer than the historical average because the US average temperature has been trending warmer by about 2.4 C / 4.2 F per century since 1960. Recall that 2012 broke the record as the hottest calendar year in the US by a large margin.
Thanks Mr. Henson, great stats, I'm really enjoying your postings. Will also be looking forward to yours or Dr. Masters's thoughts/summary of the upcoming report that should declare 2014 warmest year on record globally.
Thundering here now.

Thanks Bob...
That's definitely a wet-season looking radar for central FL today. Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher totals possible.

Quoting 21. Patrap:

Science is doomed as doomed can be.

Ted Cruz, Longtime Foe Of NASA And Science, Will Oversee NASA And Science In New Congress
By Ashley Alman


Following the ratification of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) as chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was named chair of the Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness, where he will oversee NASA and science programs.





Don't get the vapors now Pat.
We had a lot of frozen pipes in the area here in N.W. Georgia from the 5-10 degree temps we had. Now we have the low clouds,drizzle and damp cold . BOR-ING!!
BUT...looking towards the end of the month there is a chance of some exciting weather for all of the southeast and east..maybe record setting??

Till then, we shiver in the dampness and thank God we are not sliding on some frozen roads somewhere..... all the while thinking ..Not ME!! I can deal with it! lol
Thank you Bob.. again we see the irrelevance of the term "average" and the necessity, when its use is employed, to apply extensive additional data to create substantive information... and stuff...
Yeah, that should werk out well for Fla.

LoL
Quoting 30. lostinohio:

We had a lot of frozen pipes in the area here in N.W. Georgia from the 5-10 degree temps we had. Now we have the low clouds,drizzle and damp cold . BOR-ING!!
BUT...looking towards the end of the month there is a chance of some exciting weather for all of the southeast and east..maybe record setting??

Till then, we shiver in the dampness and thank God we are not sliding on some frozen roads somewhere..... all the while thinking ..Not ME!! I can deal with it! lol
Here in NW Florida our pipes did fine but our foot bath on the front porch froze solid.. had to use a towel to wipe the sand off our feet, it was crazy!
Quoting 21. Patrap:

Science is doomed as doomed can be.

Ted Cruz, Longtime Foe Of NASA And Science, Will Oversee NASA And Science In New Congress
By Ashley Alman


Following the ratification of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) as chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was named chair of the Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness, where he will oversee NASA and science programs.


Now Patrap... You don't seriously think any of these guys really have anything to do with policy do you?
My new fav weather descriptive werd, is "slathered".

Several major one-day rainfall events emerged from an extremely moist summer air mass that slathered much of the eastern United States in early August. Detroit experienced its second-heaviest calendar-day rainfall (4.57") on August 11, as did Baltimore on August 12 (6.30"). Even more impressive was the 13.57" that fell at Islip, New York, on August 11-12. The downpour set a new state record for 24-hour rainfall, which is especially noteworthy given that a tropical cyclone was not directly involved. A few weeks later, not to be outdone, Phoenix set an all-time calendar-day rainfall record on September 8 with 3.29", fed by deep moisture from ex-Hurricane Norbert.
Quoting 34. JNFlori30A:

Now Patrap... You don't seriously think any of these guys really have anything to do with policy do you?


Policy, no,

funding..yes sir indeed.
House Republicans just passed a bill forbidding scientists from advising the EPA on their own research
The "reform" measure makes room for industry-funded experts on the EPA's advisory board


In what might be the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing, the bill forbids scientific experts from participating in “advisory activities” that either directly or indirectly involve their own work. In case that wasn’t clear: experts would be forbidden from sharing their expertise in their own research — the bizarre assumption, apparently, being that having conducted peer-reviewed studies on a topic would constitute a conflict of interest. “In other words,” wrote Union of Concerned Scientists director Andrew A. Rosenberg in an editorial for RollCall, “academic scientists who know the most about a subject can’t weigh in, but experts paid by corporations who want to block regulations can.”

Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, the moisture feed is training right over the Nature Coast. Hopefully, we'll see the majority of the precipitation shift to the south later today into tonight.


Getting a nice steady downpour NE of Chiefland, FL right now
Quoting KuCommando:


Getting a nice steady downpour NE of Chiefland, FL right now


.04" in my station so far today, but the day is still early. We'll probably see most our rain tonight down here in S.W. Fl.
Thanks Mr. Henson.

Had a nice little overachieving snowfall event last night in SE MI. Was only forecast to get 1-2" of snow but ended up with getting 4". Roads were treacherous and the snow covered everything. With this event and a clipper last Friday, I now have a snowpack of about a half a foot. It has felt much more like winter compared to December when there was basically no snow at all.
Quoting 37. Patrap:

House Republicans just passed a bill forbidding scientists from advising the EPA on their own research
The "reform" measure makes room for industry-funded experts on the EPA's advisory board


In what might be the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing, the bill forbids scientific experts from participating in “advisory activities” that either directly or indirectly involve their own work. In case that wasn’t clear: experts would be forbidden from sharing their expertise in their own research — the bizarre assumption, apparently, being that having conducted peer-reviewed studies on a topic would constitute a conflict of interest. “In other words,” wrote Union of Concerned Scientists director Andrew A. Rosenberg in an editorial for RollCall, “academic scientists who know the most about a subject can’t weigh in, but experts paid by corporations who want to block regulations can.”




I can envision a time in the future, when the world no longer looks to the US for its science and technology. Hopefully the Europeans don't follow us down the path of twisting science and politics, of obstructing science for commercial and political gain...we may well be looking to them in the future as the world leaders in science.
42. bwi
Quoting 15. washingtonian115:

Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic region Drakeon.You will eventually see what I'm talking about in terms of horrid drivers.


Secret to loving MD/DC/NoVA/Bmore: live within walking distance, biking distance, or bus/rail distance from where you work! People in their cars all the time in this area either don't last long or just don't enjoy life much.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
That's definitely a wet-season looking radar for central FL today. Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher totals possible.



Nah, needs more lightning.


less ice now!!
It is -32 F in Dzalinda (Siberia) today. Need I say anything else?
Quoting LAbonbon:


I can envision a time in the future, when the world no longer looks to the US for its science and technology. Hopefully the Europeans don't follow us down the path of twisting science and politics, of obstructing science for commercial and political gain...we may well be looking to them in the future as the world leaders in science.
Honestly, we're much of the way there already--and the see-no-science, hear-no-science, speak-no-science Congress just seated should take it all the way to its sad fruition...
Looks like I'm in the dry zone. Darn.

Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:

It looks as if we are going to need a boat this afternoon. Short range models have done an excellent job in consistently depicting 2" to 4" of rain all across Orlando later today.




Here's the HRRR model that just updated as of 14Z. Incredible!





Rex Ryan is staying in the AFC East he going to Bills !!! DOOM!!
Thank you,Bob.
Is that a tropical storm in the Atlantic at the end of the Euro?
Thanks Bob Henson!

Cyclone Bansi:
Quoting Grothar:
It is -32 F in Dzalinda (Siberia) today. Need I say anything else?


Plenty of cold air up there. 12Z forecast for tomorrow shows wide spread -20 to - 30 degree temps across Siberia. Also forecasting -35 degrees in central Greenland. Europe looks a little warm though.
Quoting 37. Patrap:
House Republicans just passed a bill forbidding scientists from advising the EPA on their own research
The "reform" measure makes room for industry-funded experts on the EPA's advisory board


In what might be the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing, the bill forbids scientific experts from participating in “advisory activities” that either directly or indirectly involve their own work. In case that wasn’t clear: experts would be forbidden from sharing their expertise in their own research — the bizarre assumption, apparently, being that having conducted peer-reviewed studies on a topic would constitute a conflict of interest. “In other words,” wrote Union of Concerned Scientists director Andrew A. Rosenberg in an editorial for RollCall, “academic scientists who know the most about a subject can’t weigh in, but experts paid by corporations who want to block regulations can.”

I've lived in the state of Texas since 1975 (Houston area). I've seen this state swing from Democratic to Republican, from a state moving forward with ideas and inclusiveness, to one of "my way or the highway" thinking in the state legislature and almost total disregard for the environment(as an example, see George Bushs tenure as Gov. We had the worst air pollution in the entire country). With the likes of Ted Cruz et al in the US Congress, common sense science is not likely to prevail since it doesn't fit very well with a very narrow ideology towards critical thinking. And good lord, we're going to have plenty of examples in the next 2 to 4, maybe 6 years where we'll all be able to see just how far the Tea Party types can bury thier heads in the sand and ignore science if the science doesn't "fit the facts"(I was going to describe burying the heads in other terms, but decided not to go forward with that particular imagery. But I suspect the mental picture has been planted).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
147 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

FLZ040-121930-
MARION-
147 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 230 PM EST...

AT 147 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF SANTOS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SUMMERFIELD...LAKE WEIR...BELLEVIEW...OCKLAWAHA...OCALA AIRPORT...
SANTOS...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...MOSS BLUFF...OCALA AND LYNNE THROUGH
230 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2905 8248 2949 8228 2947 8220 2946 8219
2946 8221 2943 8221 2942 8214 2943 8214
2943 8209 2944 8208 2934 8171 2895 8195
2895 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 203DEG 26KT 2908 8210

$$

STRUBLE
Quoting 37. Patrap:

House Republicans just passed a bill forbidding scientists from advising the EPA on their own research
The "reform" measure makes room for industry-funded experts on the EPA's advisory board


In what might be the most ridiculous aspect of the whole thing, the bill forbids scientific experts from participating in “advisory activities” that either directly or indirectly involve their own work. In case that wasn’t clear: experts would be forbidden from sharing their expertise in their own research — the bizarre assumption, apparently, being that having conducted peer-reviewed studies on a topic would constitute a conflict of interest. “In other words,” wrote Union of Concerned Scientists director Andrew A. Rosenberg in an editorial for RollCall, “academic scientists who know the most about a subject can’t weigh in, but experts paid by corporations who want to block regulations can.”




The deniers are really pulling out all the stops in order to stop those greedy money sucking scientists from spreading their lies!
in east haven,conn its 37F and rain
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 56.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT

Continued
Really haven't received much of any rain here in Tampa. I'll have to check my rain gauge when I get home from work but I'd be surprised to see more than 0.15". All of the heavy rain is training north of our area.
Thank you for the careful and interesting analysis, Mr. Henson.

2015 Begins With CO2 Above 400 PPM Mark
Climate Central, Published: January 12th, 2015

And here a stunning video from the raging North Sea:


Huge waves crash against swaying North Sea oil rig - BBC News (youtube): 12.01.2015
This video could make you seasick...Huge waves crash against a swaying oil rig, as a severe storm which swept across parts of Scotland hits the North Sea.
The footage of the Borgholm Dolphin installation was captured at the weekend by James Eaton, an offshore worker on the nearby Lomond Platform, around 145 miles east of Aberdeen.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 56.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT

Continued


Quoting 41. LAbonbon:



I can envision a time in the future, when the world no longer looks to the US for its science and technology. Hopefully the Europeans don't follow us down the path of twisting science and politics, of obstructing science for commercial and political gain...we may well be looking to them in the future as the world leaders in science.
I don't think it will be the distant future, and I suspect the emerging leader will more likely be China, as they are waking up to the fact that they're going to need a massive overhaul of their infrastructure and their approach to treating the environment if they want to survive -- and with a 3000 year history as a country and culture, they have a longer perspective than Americans.
Warnings out for rain, ice, snow, then strong winds Wednesday/Thursday, (small) hail likely and even a mention of lightning from the powerful Atlantic-effect showers. Thundersnow possible. Rarely a dull moment here...

Frequent showers of sleet or snow will affect Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening into Tuesday. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow are likely above about 100 m, but also to low levels locally, and more widely over the northern half of Scotland, where more than 10 cm is likely above 300 m. Icy patches are likely to develop from early this evening. Hail and lightning will be additional hazards, especially close to western coasts.

During Tuesday the risk of snow extends into northern England, especially across the Pennines and higher parts of Cumbria. Meanwhile, a more persistent spell of sleet and snow may settle at low levels across Scotland on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
Quoting 51. Siker:

Is that a tropical storm in the Atlantic at the end of the Euro?


Interesting!

but could it be



but......



NAW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 64. VR46L:


Interesting!

but could it be



but......



NAW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Maybe something similar to a "Medicane"?
Fort Myers rain shield is still up. All the rain to our south dissipated or moved to the northeast.

Officially only .03" today. I'm starting to get worried that we will miss out on the rain again.

Quoting 33. JNFlori30A:

Here in NW Florida our pipes did fine but our foot bath on the front porch froze solid.. had to use a towel to wipe the sand off our feet, it was crazy!


We don't run pipes along the inside of exterior walls in MD and we bury them at least 3 feet deep. Further north 3 feet isn't sufficient. There were reports of frozen mains and pipes eight feet down this past winter in upper Michigan and Northern MN. Fortunately these were old metal pipes which can be thawed with electricity (I think they do it with low voltage, high amperage DC right through the pipe). I don't know how you could thaw a non conducting pipe other than by digging it up.
Quoting 63. westscotweather:

Warnings out for rain, ice, snow, then strong winds Wednesday/Thursday, (small) hail likely and even a mention of lightning from the powerful Atlantic-effect showers. Thundersnow possible. Rarely a dull moment here...

Frequent showers of sleet or snow will affect Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening into Tuesday. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow are likely above about 100 m, but also to low levels locally, and more widely over the northern half of Scotland, where more than 10 cm is likely above 300 m. Icy patches are likely to develop from early this evening. Hail and lightning will be additional hazards, especially close to western coasts.

During Tuesday the risk of snow extends into northern England, especially across the Pennines and higher parts of Cumbria. Meanwhile, a more persistent spell of sleet and snow may settle at low levels across Scotland on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.


I believe "sleet" in Europe is a mixture of rain and snow, contrasting with the U.S. term which is frozen raindrops/ice pellets

Quoting 66. Sfloridacat5:

Fort Myers rain shield is still up. All the rain to our south dissipated or moved to the northeast.

Officially only .03" today. I'm starting to get worried that we will miss out on the rain again.




I think you are going to miss out on the rain. Unbelievable. We just got hammered with a nasty cell for a good 8-10 minutes. I can't wait to go home and see what my gauge is at.
Quoting 46. Grothar:

It is -32 F in Dzalinda (Siberia) today. Need I say anything else?


Average January temperature at Yakutsk is -46F. Average daily high is near -40
Quoting 69. tampabaymatt:



I think you are going to miss out on the rain. Unbelievable. We just got hammered with a nasty cell for a good 8-10 minutes. I can't wait to go home and see what my gauge is at.
just drove to the store matt..roadways are covered in water here..rains pouring dow hard here.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Average January temperature at Yakutsk is -46F. Average daily high is near -40


Sounds like a great place to retire.
4 small earthquakes in Conn today including a 3.1
Quoting 42. bwi:



Secret to loving MD/DC/NoVA/Bmore: live within walking distance, biking distance, or bus/rail distance from where you work! People in their cars all the time in this area either don't last long or just don't enjoy life much.
I live within walking distance of a train station/bus depot,so traveling is never a problem.Sometimes depending on where I'm going I take the truck and these people especially during bad weather like today find it very hard to do the
Ok, so the central part of the west coast of Alaska will be cooler than normal next week:



...and only slightly improved toward normal the week after:

Quoting 71. LargoFl:

just drove to the store matt..roadways are covered in water here..rains pouring dow hard here.


I'm still at work but there is a PWS close to my house that is usually very close to my gauge in total rainfall. They've picked up 0.60" today. I'm sure 90% of that fell when that last line of convection just moved northward over northern Tampa. Most of the day it was just sprinkling.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I think you are going to miss out on the rain. Unbelievable. We just got hammered with a nasty cell for a good 8-10 minutes. I can't wait to go home and see what my gauge is at.


I'm still hoping we'll see some action tonight, but that's not a sure thing.

But we're now up to .16" in the past 45 days. That's equal to about a 5 minute rain shower.
Watch the rain magically dissipate as it approaches S.W. Florida.
Why aren't more people talking about Bansi, the storm became a major hurricane (equivalent) in a day. if it were near a coastline that would have been disastrous.


just updated
Flooding getting pretty bad here on 436 in Altamonte Springs.

Folks this is a live cam. Very serious situation here as we are getting blinding rains right now.

Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson...
This is unreal. Never seen anything like this before in January.

1..56" in just 14 minutes and it is still coming down so hard you can't see outside.

130kts per JTWC, forecast to reach 150kts in 24 hours. Very impressive.

Quoting 83. StormTrackerScott:

This is unreal. Never seen anything like this before in January.




A lot of rain in a really short time period already. The roads got messy really fast, lots of localized road and yard flooding downtown.
Downtown Orlando

Quoting 83. StormTrackerScott:

This is unreal. Never seen anything like this before in January.




I guess you haven't lived in Florida for a real long time. Some El Nino years have given us some big rains.
Cyclone Bansi is very near Category 5 intensity right now, with an eye temperature near 12C and the mean cloud temperature hovering between -70C and -80C. Microwave imagery shows a very compact inner core. At this point, the only limiting factor seems to be a little southwest shear in association with an anticyclone off the coast of southeastern Africa.


Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BANSI (05-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 12 2015
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (932 hPa) located at 17.7S 56.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 165 NM in the northern semi-circle and up to 195 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.8S 57.3E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 17.8S 57.7E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 18.5S 59.0E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 20.8S 61.6E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
===================
Satellite features has improved during the last hours, with a warmer eye, and a central dense overcast more symetric and colder, evidence of the intensification. The system seems to be quite stationary since the last three hours according to radar data of Reunion island (COLORADO).

Bansi should begin a slow track generally eastward under the steering influence of mid-level ridge which is building north of the system. Bansi should keep this track during the next 36 hours at a quite slow speed tomorrow within a weak steering environment.

On Wednesday, the mid-level ridge shifts back in the east of the system and a col builds in its south, a southeastwards motion is then expected. Bansi is then expected to keeps on tracking and accelerating southeastwards until Saturday.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very favorable on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday under the upper level ridge axis as at least 2 upper level channels equator-ward and poleward take place within the period. A third one towards the east is expected to temporarily exist on Tuesday. On and after Thursday, Bansi shifts south of the upper level ridge axis and keeps only its poleward outflow channel. A westerly vertical wind shear strengthens on Friday over limited heat oceanic contents.

There is an important likelihood that a very dangerous intense tropical cyclone represents a potential threat for the Mascareignes within several days (from Monday to Thursday).

The inhabitants of the Mascareignes islands should therefore closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system within the next days.


still raining in the northeast
nice looking eye with Cyclone Bansi
94. bwi
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

I live within walking distance of a train station/bus depot,so traveling is never a problem.Sometimes depending on where I'm going I take the truck and these people especially during bad weather like today find it very hard to do the


First I started driving to Metro, then when that got expensive I started biking to Metro, then when that go expensive I started biking all the way to work, then when I lost 20 pounds and got stronger I started biking everywhere. Not having a car has cut down on my radius of events a little, but has made me a much happier person!
Quoting 51. Siker:
Is that a tropical storm in the Atlantic at the end of the Euro?


I don't think sea surface temps will allow it to be a 'tropical storm' by definition.

It is interesting though.
2.74" and it is still pounding away at 4" to 5" an hour.
Hi Scott-

I've been away and meteorologists have not updated this but are we in a 'El Nino' period? It's been warm and wet for the most part here on the coast.

Thanks.
Some parts of Altamonte Springs are impassable right now as the water is just to high in some cases several feet deep.

According to this track Bansi should politely avoid Mauritius:

Click to enlarge.
Palm Springs behind the Altamonte Mall water is atleast 3 to 4 feet deep. Please stay off the roads in the Orlando area right now as this is a dangerous situation.
3.54" now here in Altamonte
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
3.54" now here in Altamonte


That's just not fair. So far a big nothing here. Cloudy skies with an occasional sprinkle.
Quoting 103. Sfloridacat5:



That's just not fair.


Rain is letting up now.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

FLZ045-046-122200-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
359 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

AT 356 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER SEMINOLE
AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE FAIRVIEW SHORES...FERN PARK...ORLANDO AND UNION PARK.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.



Tropical Cyclone Bansi

Tropical Cyclone Bansi
Last Updated Jan 12, 2015 18 GMT
Location -17.6N 56.8E Movement ESE
Wind 150 MPH
Quoting 105. LargoFl:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

FLZ045-046-122200-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
359 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

AT 356 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER SEMINOLE
AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE FAIRVIEW SHORES...FERN PARK...ORLANDO AND UNION PARK.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.


I bet we had some 45 mph gust earlier nothing to major tho. Rain however is intense.
Quoting 107. StormTrackerScott:



I bet we had some 45 mph gust earlier nothing to major tho. Rain however is intense.
18Z gfs has 5 to 7 inches over there..stay alert scott



Bansi's currently at 150 mph so it definitely underwent an RI.
112. flsky
I take it back - it's raining like crazy now - nice! (Sorry abt quoting myself.)

Quoting 48. flsky:

Looks like I'm in the dry zone. Darn.


0.94" at my house gauge so far today in NW Tampa.
Quoting 109. LargoFl:

18Z gfs has 5 to 7 inches over there..stay alert scott


The HRRR models really nailed this to a tee. If you recall I said earlier it appeared Orlando area was in for a lot of rain today.
Bansi forecast to reach for 125kt (gusts 150) at Jan 14: Wow.

Found this on twitter:

Franck P. Rabeson @Erkhyan 22 Min.Vor 22 Minuten
If the predictions hold, then Bansi is about to became the strongest cyclone to exist in our region since 1994's Geralda.

List of South-West Indian Ocean Cyclones.


Development in the last 24h.

Another more detailed loop.

Good night everybody ...
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:



The HRRR models really nailed this to a tee. If you recall I said earlier it appeared Orlando area was in for a lot of rain today.


2.6 inches downtown, current rate 1.54 inches/hour. A boat floated by with all sorts of pairs of animals...I went back inside.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's just not fair. So far a big nothing here. Cloudy skies with an occasional sprinkle.
We also had zero as our low pressure went through here completely dry but, as usual, turned into a downpour at Scott's house. At least I've had 1.33" so far in January because we had one central Florida like downpour of 1.23". Otherwise, I'd have .10". Like you say, it's just not fair.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT ITSELF THIS PERIOD AS THE CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. TUE AND WED. THIS
WILL ALLOW A STRONG WEDGE TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AND WED AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY...AND MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH TEMPS ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ICE/GLAZE ON ROADWAYS TO CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. WE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE WEDGE IS TRENDING STRONGER AND THE MODELS COLDER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO
. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

12z


18z




Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why aren't more people talking about Bansi, the storm became a major hurricane (equivalent) in a day. if it were near a coastline that would have been disastrous.
There have been a number of posts about Bansi, especially since it now looks like it's going to be a major storm. The problem is it's on the other side of the world, it's not threatening land, it's January, and it's raining in Florida.
Quoting 120. sar2401:
... and it's raining in Florida.


It really does ...


Was just uploaded.
Quoting 120. sar2401:

There have been a number of posts about Bansi, especially since it now looks like it's going to be a major storm. The problem is it's on the other side of the world, it's not threatening land, it's January, and it's raining in Florida.


Won't somebody think of the children? :)
moderate rain this afternoon and the sky lit up for a second. lightning? e cen fl.
Florida is getting soaked. Some areas will receive more soaking...


Things are much worse in Florida than I thought. Here's the 1:50 pm automated report from Titusville (KTIX)

KTIX 121850Z 17010 G156KT 7SM SCT017 BKN030 BKN100 25/21 A3014

That's 10 knots sustained with a gust of 156 knots! About 179 mph! There must be some wrecked airplanes...and hangers...and there must not be much left of Titusville either. :-)
Quoting Naga5000:


Won't somebody think of the children? :)
Only if they're in Titusville. The carnage must be just terrible....
Quoting barbamz:


It really does ...


Was just uploaded.
Holy cow! Thank goodness it never rains like that in Alabama...or Germany. We could just take the windshield wipers off our cars...
Nearby Weather Stations light rain at 5:22 PM EST on January 12, 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
34.5 °F
DopplerDon.com
36.0 °F
Rock Hill
34.6 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
34.3 °F
Foxon
34.2 °F
East Haven Town Beach
34.7 °F
east haven morgan point
35.1 °
Quoting 126. sar2401:

Only if they're in Titusville. The carnage must be just terrible....


Titusville has been blown into the ocean. Good riddance. I'm up to 3.42 inches now, it's actually pretty crazy.
Quoting Naga5000:


Titusville has been blown into the ocean. Good riddance. I'm up to 3.42 inches now, it's actually pretty crazy.


Nah, NASA was probably testing out its new warp drive, or they just clocked Elon Musk speeding by in his Tesla on his way to the bank. :)
Man 3.5" of rain that's not a good thunder storm!! Try 25"
Hopefully when I wake up tomorrow morning, my weather station will have some good news for me.
La nina! ;)
57/64 today. A rainy morning with 0.94" after midnight and 0.03" yesterday. Sun tried to break through this afternoon but never really managed.
Quoting 130. Naga5000:



Titusville has been blown into the ocean. Good riddance. I'm up to 3.42 inches now, it's actually pretty crazy.


Please support Titusville... Because without "U", they're just a bunch of boobs! ;)
Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT ITSELF THIS PERIOD AS THE CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. TUE AND WED. THIS
WILL ALLOW A STRONG WEDGE TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AND WED AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY...AND MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH TEMPS ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...IT ONLY TAKES A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ICE/GLAZE ON ROADWAYS TO CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR. WE WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS THE WEDGE IS TRENDING STRONGER AND THE MODELS COLDER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO
. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

12z


18z




you remember what happened last year.
Quoting 114. StormTrackerScott:



The HRRR models really nailed this to a tee. If you recall I said earlier it appeared Orlando area was in for a lot of rain today.


the HRRR has been performing well with larger systems lately, esp in the "warm" sector with timing. We'll see if this continues into spring.
The best tracks for hurricanes Edouard and Gonzalo were released earlier today.
KML files
Edouard:Link
Gonzalo:Link
Some intensity changes, but nothing major.
Quoting 107. StormTrackerScott:



I bet we had some 45 mph gust earlier nothing to major tho. Rain however is intense.
Hi Scott, I see your getting all the rain today.I've had .68 so far and more coming.
Oh my! There's tropical down pours in Florida! Run!.
Wintry weather Wednesday? Models have hinted at the risk of a bit of wintry weather in the after midnight to midday period on Wednesday. For the most part, this appears to be a very minor threat (if that). In fact, most models keep the bulk of the moisture to our southeast. But it’s close enough to watch and in a spot where we often see a bit of a northward jog into the end. Temperatures should be rather cold for whatever falls.

Cold enough but storm stays suppressed.Ahhh irony :).
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Please support Titusville... Because without "U", they're just a bunch of boobs! ;)
LOL. So that means without us, they'd just be a boob...
Mostly cloudy today in West Palm with a few sprinkles. I thought we would get more rain. But, a nice gloomy and mild day nonetheless.
Quoting 146. Tornado6042008X:


Yep.

117. StormTrackerScott
9:49 PM GMT on January 12, 2015
Geesh!

As Earth warms more water vapor is carrying more heat to a condenser.


Britain braces for floods as a new storm gathers pace across the Atlantic

Parts of England will be hit with the country's average monthly rainfall in less than 24 hours, as a huge storm tears in from the Atlantic on Wednesday evening, threatening flooding across large swathes of the country.

Link
Didn't see this tweet from Phil Klotzbach until now. The nine-year-averaged U.S. hurricane and major hurricane impact count is the lowest on record going back to 1878.

Quoting Naga5000:


Titusville has been blown into the ocean. Good riddance. I'm up to 3.42 inches now, it's actually pretty crazy.
The Je suis Titusville vigil and salvage sale start in half an hour. Everyone who's anyone is going to be there. :-)

Let's see, let me check my gauge. Darn, still zero.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Didn't see this tweet from Phil Klotzbach until now. The nine-year-averaged U.S. hurricane and major hurricane impact count is the lowest on record going back to 1878.

And yet my insurance rates continue to climb.
Quoting 149. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Didn't see this tweet from Phil Klotzbach until now. The nine-year-averaged U.S. hurricane and major hurricane impact count is the lowest on record going back to 1878.




To bad he's not living in the rubble in from the Haiyan typhoon, the most powerful land falling typhoon ever seen. Or a beach house on the Jersey Shore , which was hit by the largest storm ever seen in the North Atlantic. And lowest pressure ever measured at Atlantic City.

It's not the number we will see, it's power they will bring .
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Hi Scott-

I've been away and meteorologists have not updated this but are we in a 'El Nino' period? It's been warm and wet for the most part here on the coast.

Thanks.
No, we're not. NOAA actually dropped the percentage to 50/50. If something doesn't happen in the next three months, movement toward ENSO neutral seems more and more likely. Even though there has been some El Nino-like conditions, the atmosphere is just not cooperating
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


To bad he's not living in the rubble in from the Haiyan typhoon, the most powerful land falling typhoon ever seen. Or a beach house on the Jersey Shore , which was hit by the largest storm ever seen in the North Atlantic. And lowest pressure ever measured at Atlantic City.

It's not the number we will see, it's power they will bring .
No, it's exactly what he said it was. Haiyan was not a US hurricane and Sandy wasn't a hurricane when it came ashore. Both were bad storms but they had nothing to do with the graphic. Stop trying to piggyback catastrophes on top of something that is on a completely different subject.
Quoting 152. ColoradoBob1:



To bad he's not living in the rubble in from the Haiyan typhoon, the most powerful land falling typhoon ever seen. Or a beach house on the Jersey Shore , which was hit by the largest storm ever seen in the North Atlantic. And lowest pressure ever measured at Atlantic City.

It's not the number we will see, it's power they will bring .
We're talking about the U.S here not the Philippines.And while there have been some noteworthy strikes in the last 9 and half years since the last major hurricane none of those storms were majors and the hurricane count has been down.He's not wishing for anything,just making a note of things.
Let me explain the part of the tropical theory .

Storms "may" decline in number , but the ones we see will be larger, and much more powerful.
Which is what we have been seeing since Katrina .

Which is to say , the system is moving ever larger bundles of heat to ever larger areas of cold.

End result , when a giant typhoon comes . RUN ! Take everything you have.
Is it bad to say 75 is hot? Well it is January, but we are on the Gulf Coast so…… Anyway 60% chance of rain today, and…….nothing, not even during the "heat" of the day, but finally some showers starting to pop up along I-65 and are moving ENE quite slowly, the cold front is still about 100 miles to the west so if there is any chance of rain left today now the time.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20142015
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 57.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 923 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT


Continued
I think an odd pattern we've been seeing fairly consistently is that hurricanes are becoming huge, misshapen storm surge machines with weak winds that do not correspond to their low sea level pressures. Think of Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy.
"may" LOL...
January Thaw: Weather Pattern Change to Erase Arctic Blast Published Jan 12 2015 06:31 PM EST


n short, last week featured a sharp dip in the jet stream southward to the east of the Rockies. As a reminder, the jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds aloft in the upper atmosphere. When the jet stream dives south and is oriented in a north to south fashion, it typically brings colder air south as well.

The plunging jet stream allows strong, cold high pressure systems near the surface of the earth to also move south.

Later this week, the wind flow in the upper atmosphere becomes aligned more west to east. This will allow a milder air regime to take over across a large swath of the Lower 48.

Of course, it's only mid-January, so enjoy the break while it lasts. Future weather pattern shifts could always put the U.S. in the deep freeze once again.
Quoting 156. ColoradoBob1:
Let me explain the part of the tropical theory .

Storms "may" decline in number , but the ones we see will be larger, and much more powerful.
Which is what we have been seeing since Katrina .

Which is to say , the system is moving ever larger bundles of heat to ever larger areas of cold.

End result , when a giant typhoon comes . RUN ! Take everything you have.


I'd honestly like to see some studies done on extratropical cyclones. Anecdotally, it seems as though there are more intense storms outside the tropics than there were even 20 years ago.
Quoting 159. wxgeek723:

I think an odd pattern we've been seeing fairly consistently is that hurricanes are becoming huge, misshapen storm surge machines with weak winds that do not correspond to their low sea level pressures. Think of Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy.

Alex was a classic monsoonal tropical cyclone; those are typically large in size. Sandy's expansion in size was due to its interaction with land and transition to a hybrid cyclone. Ike, Isaac, and Irene all featured unsuccessful eyewall replacement cycles (due to dry air) that commonly lead to larger systems. I don't know what a compact major hurricane looks like anymore--at least, not in the Atlantic. Heck, major hurricanes themselves have become somewhat of a rarity lately, lol.

Quoting 156. ColoradoBob1:

Let me explain the part of the tropical theory .

Storms "may" decline in number , but the ones we see will be larger, and much more powerful.
Which is what we have been seeing since Katrina .

Which is to say , the system is moving ever larger bundles of heat to ever larger areas of cold.

End result , when a giant typhoon comes . RUN ! Take everything you have.

Hyperbolic much?


the weather for tuesday jan 13 2015 cold weather in the northeast
Quoting 159. wxgeek723:

I think an odd pattern we've been seeing fairly consistently is that hurricanes are becoming huge, misshapen storm surge machines with weak winds that do not correspond to their low sea level pressures. Think of Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy.
All that extra water weight added to a cyclone.
Think of a ballerina with chubby arms stumbling as she tries to spin up.
Day/Night DNB Imagery VIIRS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alex was a classic monsoonal tropical cyclone; those are typically large in size. Sandy's expansion in size was due to its interaction with land and transition to a hybrid cyclone. Ike, Isaac, and Irene all featured unsuccessful eyewall replacement cycles (due to dry air) that commonly lead to larger systems. I don't know what a compact major hurricane looks like anymore--at least, not in the Atlantic. Heck, major hurricanes themselves have become somewhat of a rarity lately, lol.


Hyperbolic much?


They look like this:
Quoting 169. ColoradoBob1:

Great reply folks , here's hoping the largest cyclone you ever saw comes over your house soon. Then you can lecture all of us about recovery , and climate.
Lol.I don't think that'll be happening here.
171. DDR
Lots of rain here in Trinidad and Tobago,especially the eastern part of Tobago,im sure theres landslips etc,really weird wether here considering its 'the dry season'
Quoting 159. wxgeek723:

I think an odd pattern we've been seeing fairly consistently is that hurricanes are becoming huge, misshapen storm surge machines with weak winds that do not correspond to their low sea level pressures. Think of Ike, Alex, Irene, Isaac, and Sandy.



Earl (the 2010 one) was 961 mb as a tropical storm.
Quoting 161. hurricanes2018:

January Thaw: Weather Pattern Change to Erase Arctic Blast Published Jan 12 2015 06:31 PM EST






Finally! Well, no more cold, i want spring now. :O)
Quoting 125. sar2401:

Things are much worse in Florida than I thought. Here's the 1:50 pm automated report from Titusville (KTIX)

KTIX 121850Z 17010 G156KT 7SM SCT017 BKN030 BKN100 25/21 A3014

That's 10 knots sustained with a gust of 156 knots! About 179 mph! There must be some wrecked airplanes...and hangers...and there must not be much left of Titusville either. :-)


No big deal, just run of the mill heavy showers and a stiff breeze :)
Quoting 125. sar2401:

Things are much worse in Florida than I thought. Here's the 1:50 pm automated report from Titusville (KTIX)

KTIX 121850Z 17010 G156KT 7SM SCT017 BKN030 BKN100 25/21 A3014

That's 10 knots sustained with a gust of 156 knots! About 179 mph! There must be some wrecked airplanes...and hangers...and there must not be much left of Titusville either. :-)


Perfect for a rocket launch. Hold on to your hats! Also, who's in Melbourne? There's some lightning offshore.
Quoting 116. Naga5000:



2.6 inches downtown, current rate 1.54 inches/hour. A boat floated by with all sorts of pairs of animals...I went back inside.


Pretty nice Central Florida soaker for some folks, although this stuff happens, people act like it can't rain heavy in the dry season, but rainfall averages in the winter and spring in Central Florida are lower than summer but heavy rain can and does fall. With that said some are making a big deal and others continue to get all worked up and offended by people posting about rain in Florida.

Which I always find funny, because this is a blog for weather enthusiasts, people are welcome to discuss events in their area just as much even if it's just a standard weather event like some of us FL bloggers like to do.

Personally I'd rather see bloggers getting excited than people not showing much care for what's going on.

I happen to be one of those people who do like to discuss standard events sometimes and enjoy them, and personally I enjoy talking about standard events a lot more than events that aren't happening in my area. I generally stay out of national weather conversation unless its extreme, but it doesn't bother me if others are passionate about an event I don't care about. As I said, it's nice to see, even if the event doesn't strike my interest.

It's never about Florida, it's just there is a large concentration of people here passionate about weather, I guarantee that if all us Florida bloggers move to other states, such as myself, I'd still be getting just as excited over a thunderstorm in Iowa or Pennsylvania as here, it's just that I happen to live in Florida. In fact I started covering Tallahassee a lot more in addition to Tampa Bay since moving here for school, and when I return to Tampa bay on breaks, I cover Tampa Bay again.
Quoting 176. Jedkins01:



Pretty nice Central Florida soaker for some folks, although this stuff happens, people act like it can't rain heavy in the dry season, but rainfall averages in the winter and spring in Central Florida are lower than summer but heavy rain can and does fall. With that said some are making a big deal and others continue to get all worked up and offended by people posting about rain in Florida.

Which I always find funny, because this is a blog for weather enthusiasts, people are welcome to discuss events in their area just as much even if it's just a standard weather event like some of us FL bloggers like to do.

Personally I'd rather see bloggers getting excited than people not showing much care for what's going on.

I happen to be one of those people who do like to discuss standard events sometimes and enjoy them, and personally I enjoy talking about standard events a lot more than events that aren't happening in my area. I generally stay out of national weather conversation unless its extreme, but it doesn't bother me if others are passionate about an event I don't care about. As I said, it's nice to see, even if the event doesn't strike my interest.

It's never about Florida, it's just there is a large concentration of people here passionate about weather, I guarantee that if all us Florida bloggers move to other states, such as myself, I'd still be getting just as excited over a thunderstorm in Iowa or Pennsylvania as here, it's just that I happen to live in Florida. In fact I started covering Tallahassee a lot more in addition to Tampa Bay since moving here for school, and when I return to Tampa bay on breaks, I cover Tampa Bay again.


Yeah, we have a lot of Florida folks, and really what do you expect from a blog with a heavy focus on the tropics. I really like our group of Florida people and their reports. Plus, I get to learn where some people are located (why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).

Anyways, looks like the big rain event is mostly over for the evening here in Orlando. Finished with 3.76 inches. Not a bad 6 hours.
(why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).
NOPE.Fine the way it is.....
Quoting 134. Gearsts:

La nina! ;)



Yes! Yes I want it!
Well....
I fired up the old 1 ton diesel this morning. It sleeps outside with the block heater plugged in. It doesn't get much love since I bought the Mini Cooper, but I need to drive it once a week. So, this morning was the morning. It did not seem that cold. Maybe it was the lack of wind, the dry air,or maybe it was the thermal underwear and flannel lined pants. In any case I had a real hard time getting the frost off of the inside of the windshield. I suppose that should have clued me in. 
When I got to work I found out that it was about negative 10 or 11.
It warmed up nice and actually got to zero.
It looks like later in the week we will have a heat wave, at 34 you really can't wear thermals or flannel lined pants. :(
CheersQazulight
Quoting 152. ColoradoBob1:



To bad he's not living in the rubble in from the Haiyan typhoon, the most powerful land falling typhoon ever seen. Or a beach house on the Jersey Shore , which was hit by the largest storm ever seen in the North Atlantic. And lowest pressure ever measured at Atlantic City.

It's not the number we will see, it's power they will bring .
Self-righteous people are so... silly. teehee <3

Also, if you want people to understand (and best case scenario, come to adapt as their own) your viewpoint, you might want to phrase them a little less... arrogantly. If a dbag like me can realize the necessity of that, surely someone like yourself, who already seems to care about sentimentality far more than I do should be able to do the same, no?
Quoting 161. hurricanes2018:

January Thaw: Weather Pattern Change to Erase Arctic Blast Published Jan 12 2015 06:31 PM EST


I hope so, it's -7.4 in my backyard right now

Quoting 179. CaribBoy:



Yes! Yes I want it!
You and me both, dude.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

(why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).
NOPE.Fine the way it is.....


Well it wouldn't be mandatory. Besides, how else would we know you live in Bejing? :)

Edit: To be fair, any modification of the WU interface would be dangerous at this point, after that whole "everyone's comments in bold" fiasco...
Mid to upper 60's all next week in NW Florida, so much for Winter this year.
Quoting 21. Patrap:

Science is doomed as doomed can be.

Ted Cruz, Longtime Foe Of NASA And Science, Will Oversee NASA And Science In New Congress
By Ashley Alman


Following the ratification of Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) as chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was named chair of the Subcommittee on Space, Science and Competitiveness, where he will oversee NASA and science programs.




I'm trying to remember the words of Abraham Lincoln, comforting in bad times, "This too shall pass!"
Quoting 184. Naga5000:



Well it wouldn't be mandatory. Besides, how else would we know you live in Bejing? :)
I could be living on the moon but its so lifeless up here and dull.
Quoting 185. 69Viking:

Mid to upper 60's all next week in NW Florida, so much for Winter this year.


So much for winter the next two weeks. Further out ?????

March 3 1980, Miami reached 32F.
Quoting 187. washingtonian115:

I could be living on the moon but its so lifeless up here and dull.


Not the moon, but you could go to Mars..., but I'm sure it won't be much fun there either.
First non-slip dogwalk in six days this evening. When 230 pounds of labs see a squirrel it's a lot harder to hold them on ICE!! Hoping all the water evaporates in dry cold advection after midnight in DC area. This looks likely and that's it for ice for awhile here.. perhaps two weeks or more.
Quoting 177. Naga5000:



Yeah, we have a lot of Florida folks, and really what do you expect from a blog with a heavy focus on the tropics. I really like our group of Florida people and their reports. Plus, I get to learn where some people are located (why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).

Anyways, looks like the big rain event is mostly over for the evening here in Orlando. Finished with 3.76 inches. Not a bad 6 hours.


Exactly, its great to hear from other bloggers and see what they are experiencing locally, and wow that's a great rain! That's probably near the January average for the month. Looks like you guys won't need any more for a little while.

Up here we haven't had much. We had a good 1.5ish(I forget exactly) on January 4th before I moved back up here for school, since then we've had 0.03 a couple days back. We had no rain at all in the entire viewing area even though the forecast was 60% for today. Not sure what happened, models pumped out rain with the shortwave moving by, but there wasn't any.

My guess it was cause convection was more vigorous further south in the gulf and central Florida more than most models showed. The HRRR was aggressive and did very well, which interestingly enough, also was one of the few models that didn't bring any rain across the Tallahassee area. I do think it's an inflow cutoff issue.

Regardless, we are doing fine though rain wise, after the insane drencher prior to Christmas.
Quoting 180. Qazulight:

Well....
I fired up the old 1 ton diesel this morning. It sleeps outside with the block heater plugged in. It doesn't get much love since I bought the Mini Cooper, but I need to drive it once a week. So, this morning was the morning. It did not seem that cold. Maybe it was the lack of wind, the dry air,or maybe it was the thermal underwear and flannel lined pants. In any case I had a real hard time getting the frost off of the inside of the windshield. I suppose that should have clued me in. 
When I got to work I found out that it was about negative 10 or 11.
It warmed up nice and actually got to zero.
It looks like later in the week we will have a heat wave, at 34 you really can't wear thermals or flannel lined pants. :(
CheersQazulight


I used to take my toyota out once a month when I was at PSU. Lived on Campus, no reason to drive during terms but needed the car for moves to Co-OP internship and back and for commuting while there. But during term this was just a monthly chore.
Today Savannah GA had 1.89" of rain, breaking the daily record 0f 1.81" set in 1964.
Quoting 189. Naga5000:



Not the moon, but you could go to Mars..., but I'm sure it won't be much fun there either.
Wonderful! Another planet to destroy! No I'll stay on my home planet.
Really?

Quoting 196. Tropicsweatherpr:

Really?


What does that mean?.
198. beell
Quoting 191. Jedkins01:



Exactly, its great to hear from other bloggers and see what they are experiencing locally, and wow that's a great rain! That's probably near the January average for the month. Looks like you guys won't need any more for a little while.

Up here we haven't had much. We had a good 1.5ish(I forget exactly) on January 4th before I moved back up here for school, since then we've had 0.03 a couple days back. We had no rain at all in the entire viewing area even though the forecast was 60% for today. Not sure what happened, models pumped out rain with the shortwave moving by, but there wasn't any.

My guess it was cause convection was more vigorous further south in the gulf and central Florida more than most models showed. The HRRR was aggressive and did very well, which interestingly enough, also was one of the few models that didn't bring any rain across the Tallahassee area. I do think it's an inflow cutoff issue.

Regardless, we are doing fine though rain wise, after the insane drencher prior to Christmas.


Pretty decent diffluent flow from an upper shortwave over the south central Gulf and atop the frontal boundary may have helped some.



Quoting 197. washingtonian115:

What does that mean?.
2C by August  in the Nino 3.4 region, aka super El Nino. Ain't happening, hun.
Quoting 197. washingtonian115:

What does that mean?.


Kori answered. This is the only ENSO model that goes on crack.Even the usually bullish ECMWF doesn't go that extreme.
at 34 you really can't wear thermals or flannel lined pants. :(

At 34º, I don't leave the bed.
Quoting 199. KoritheMan:

2C by August  in the Nino 3.4 region, aka super El Nino. Ain't happening, hun.

Quoting 200. Tropicsweatherpr:



Kori answered. This is the only ENSO model that goes on crack.Even the usually bullish ECMWF doesn't go that extreme.
In order for that to happen significant warming would have to occur between now and then.
You know aqua, for the longest time I would pronounce your name as "A-KWOCK (aqua with the k added at the end)9". You have no idea how much my mind was blown when I found out it's supposed to be aqua canine. :)

Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

In order for that to happen significant warming would have to occur between now and then.
inb4 StormTrackerScott
Quoting 203. KoritheMan:
You know aqua, for the longest time I would pronounce your name as "A-KWOCK (aqua with the k added at the end)9". You have no idea how much my mind was blown when I found out it's supposed to be aqua canine. :)


Well Kori.... I've watched you grow up. You and Jedkins both. That's so sweet of you to say...my eyes are all twinkly.

:)
206. beell
Quoting 203. KoritheMan:

You know aqua, for the longest time I would pronounce your name as "A-KWOCK (aqua with the k added at the end)9". You have no idea how much my mind was blown when I found out it's supposed to be aqua canine. :)



And this is coming from someone with "Korithe Man" as a handle...
Sun is coming up on Bansi..

Quoting 203. KoritheMan:

You know aqua, for the longest time I would pronounce your name as "A-KWOCK (aqua with the k added at the end)9". You have no idea how much my mind was blown when I found out it's supposed to be aqua canine. :)



I mispronounced it as well, but as A-Quack Nine...I felt the exact same way when I discovered it was aqua canine. My mind was blown. I also felt really stupid. :)

Quoting 206. beell:



And this is coming from someone with "Korithe Man" as a handle...
At first I thought it was Korithe man for a while until I got it was "Kori the man".#fail

In secret I always saw aquak9 as aqua dog.

Quoting 205. aquak9:



Well Kori.... I've watched you grow up. You and Jedkins both. That's so sweet of you to say...my eyes are all twinkly.

:)
I'd argue I've grown up a little too much. I'm almost 25! That's what, a quarter of a century? :0
Quoting 206. beell:



And this is coming from someone with "Korithe Man" as a handle...
SouthALWX that used to post here found me on Facebook in Cody's hurricane group two years ago; we ended up reconnecting. I found out later that he held off sending me a friend request sooner because he thought the name was Greek. Then he was like "Oh yeah... I remember this guy!" *friend*

>_>
Kori The Man- you've turned out to be a great guy. It's been an absolute pleasure, this past decade, watching so many people on here become adults.
Quoting 203. KoritheMan:

You know aqua, for the longest time I would pronounce your name as "A-KWOCK (aqua with the k added at the end)9". You have no idea how much my mind was blown when I found out it's supposed to be aqua canine. :)



I initially pronounced it like that at first too until she told me how it was supposed to be pronounced.
Quoting 193. washingtonian115:




channel 5 bridge - a bit east and north of me ;>)
The monthly PDO value for December 2014 is in at a whopping 2.51. This is the highest December value on record going back to 1900 and the 10th highest PDO value for any month through the same base period.

Good Morning All, It's cold here in Grayling, Michigan. It's -19 below in my back yard right now. 7 miles east of Grayling
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The monthly PDO value for December 2014 is in at a whopping 2.51. This is the highest December value on record going back to 1900 and the 10th highest PDO value for any month through the same base period.



What does that mean?

Quoting 217. DonnieBwkGA:



What does that mean?
...Lots of warm water off western North America? :)
Quoting 217. DonnieBwkGA:



What does that mean?

The PDO describes the state of the sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific north of 20N. A positive PDO features warmer than average anomalies in a horseshoe-shaped configuration from the Bering Sea to the West U.S. to the Hawaiian Islands region; a negative PDO is just the opposite. A positive PDO typically goes hand in hand with a negative EPO (ridging across Alaska; major factor in 2014 record warmth), which is a major driver of United States cold during the winter (it was the primary catalyst for both the mid-November and early January arctic outbreaks). Generally warmer/drier in the West and cooler/wetter in the East.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The PDO describes the state of the sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific north of 20N. A positive PDO features warmer than average anomalies in a horseshoe-shaped configuration from the Bering Sea to the West U.S. to the Hawaiian Islands region; a negative PDO is just the opposite. A positive PDO typically goes hand in hand with a negative EPO (ridging across Alaska; major factor in 2014 record warmth), which is a major driver of United States cold during the winter (it was the primary catalyst for both the mid-November and early January arctic outbreaks). Generally warmer/drier in the West and cooler/wetter in the East.


Potentially a favorable set up for cold at the end of January and February in the east then?

Thanks TropicalAnalystwx13. You were a good narrator in the video too.
Quoting 220. DonnieBwkGA:



Potentially a favorable set up for cold at the end of January and February in the east then?

Thanks tropicalanalyst. You were a good narrator in the video too.

The EPO is currently trending upward, but yeah, it looks to return to a deeply negative state to round out January. And with models showing heights building across the Arctic (-AO), the chances for snow across the East to accompany the cold should be on the increase (but not a guarantee!).
I'm confused. I thought a positive PDO meant a better setup for cold in the east, not negative. That's how I read your first response.

Quoting 222. DonnieBwkGA:

I'm confused. I thought a positive PDO meant a better setup for cold in the east, not negative. That's how I read your first response.
A positive PDO (warm waters) favors surface low pressure, but as we know from watching hurricanes, the release of heat energy at the surface and low-levels ultimately causes ridging aloft. Ridging over Alaska favors downstream troughing over the United States.

I think that's what Cody was getting at.
Quoting 216. TroutMadness:

Good Morning All, It's cold here in Grayling, Michigan. It's -19 below in my back yard right now. 7 miles east of Grayling


We've passed laws against that sorta foolishness here in Florida.
OK so a positive PDO favors troughiness, not ridging, in Alaska. So when the PDO goes down maybe we will get more winter weather later.
Quoting Naga5000:


Yeah, we have a lot of Florida folks, and really what do you expect from a blog with a heavy focus on the tropics. I really like our group of Florida people and their reports. Plus, I get to learn where some people are located (why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).

Anyways, looks like the big rain event is mostly over for the evening here in Orlando. Finished with 3.76 inches. Not a bad 6 hours.
Ya lucky dog. I still ended up with zero. Our low from Texas never developed and the same convection that bought you the rain cut us off. Any time there's convection from about Pensacola over to the Big Bend on the coast, it cuts off SE Alabama from the return flow so, no rain.

I think most people that comment about the Florida posts do in good humor. I know I try to. It is kind of funny seeing some pictures of things like heavy rain and nuisance type flooding with accompanying text giving the impression such things don't occur elsewhere or that something about the way they happen is terminally unique. Some people get overly excited about things like common thunderstorms, but people in other parts of the country can get a bit worked up about a few millimeters of ice or a tenth of an inch of snow. I think it's just part of being a weather geek, where almost everything about the atmosphere excites us. I enjoy reading about what's happening in other parts of the country and world, and I try to post what's happening here on a regular basis. It seems to me that this is why we have a blog about weather. Those that don't want to read about a weather event in Screamer or Slapout, AL (real places) can always use the ignore button. :-)

Quoting 225. DonnieBwkGA:

OK so a positive PDO favors troughiness, not ridging, in Alaska. So when the PDO goes down maybe we will get more winter weather later.
A positive PDO favors cold over the southeast. ENSO can override it, though.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
OK so a positive PDO favors troughiness, not ridging, in Alaska. So when the PDO goes down maybe we will get more winter weather later.
I always look at a combination of the southern jet stream, the Arctic jet stream, the NAO, and AO. If the Arctic and southern streams aren't occurring at about the same time, both further south than normal and the NAO and AO aren't at least neutral (but preferably negative), the chances of us getting any wintry weather is about zero. To some extent, the same holds true for early spring severe weather.
Just use it in your handle!

Quoting Naga5000:


Yeah, we have a lot of Florida folks, and really what do you expect from a blog with a heavy focus on the tropics. I really like our group of Florida people and their reports. Plus, I get to learn where some people are located (why WU can't put our locations next to our handles is beyond me).

Anyways, looks like the big rain event is mostly over for the evening here in Orlando. Finished with 3.76 inches. Not a bad 6 hours.
Quoting Naga5000:


I mispronounced it as well, but as A-Quack Nine...I felt the exact same way when I discovered it was aqua canine. My mind was blown. I also felt really stupid. :)

I always picked up on it as aqua K9. I suspect it was from so many years in search and rescue, where all dogs went by the generic designation of K9, as in "Send me five K9 teams". I just wondered if she had a dog that really liked water.
Quoting swflurker:
Just use it in your handle!

That would be a good idea but we aren't allowed to change handles here and it's kind of like getting postal address change in terms of it being a pain when you change your handle by registering for a new account, the only way to do it. Almost all modern blog software offers the option to display (or not) things like you location, time zone, and profession, or at least your area of interest. It's not like the current layout doesn't have enough space. This has been brought up dozens, maybe hundreds of times, over my over 10 years here and it has never changed. We'll still just have to ask and put people in the embarrassing position of not telling if they don't want to or answering the same question over and over again.

Quoting 226. sar2401:

Those that don't want to read about a weather event in Screamer or Slapout, AL (real places) can always use the ignore button. :-)
Or they can use the REAL ignore button; their eyes. Scroll past, ya dig? :)
What is the impac of PDO in Pacific Hurricane Season?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
First non-slip dogwalk in six days this evening. When 230 pounds of labs see a squirrel it's a lot harder to hold them on ICE!! Hoping all the water evaporates in dry cold advection after midnight in DC area. This looks likely and that's it for ice for awhile here.. perhaps two weeks or more.
Sounds like you need to invest in some strap on ice cleats. Easy to put on and you have a lot better chance of getting home in one piece after trying to restrain 230 pounds of out of control dog. Radar Dog only weights 65 pounds and there's no way I'd try to walk him if we regularly had ice without ice cleats. I'd be dragged all the way back home. :-)

Quoting 233. pablosyn:

What is the impac of PDO in Pacific Hurricane Season?
Warm PDOs can coincide with a warm ENSO/El Nino and contribute toward enhanced cyclonic activity there.
Know what your mean. I did something, and it reset my member date, comments, and avitar. Really been here from 2004. SIL!


Quoting sar2401:
That would be a good idea but we aren't allowed to change handles here and it's kind of like getting postal address change in terms of it being a pain when you change your handle by registering for a new account, the only way to do it. Almost all modern blog software offers the option to display (or not) things like you location, time zone, and profession, or at least your area of interest. It's not like the current layout doesn't have enough space. This has been brought up dozens, maybe hundreds of times, over my over 10 years here and it has never changed. We'll still just have to ask and put people in the embarrassing position of not telling if they don't want to or answering the same question over and over again.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Or they can use the REAL ignore button; their eyes. Scroll past, ya dig? :)
Indeed, but some people don't have that kind of maturity. Certain posts, especially those specifically directed at them, just set them off, and it's better for all concerned if they just don't see those posts. I have some hurricane trolls on ignore just because they slow down me reading important posts, but most of them are either gone or don't use that handle any longer, so I have to repopulate that list every season. I have a few others that simply want to be argumentative, and I'd prefer not to see that either. All the others on here are fine.
Quoting swflurker:
Know what your mean. I did something, and it reset my member date, comments, and avitar. Really been here from 2004. SIL!


Yeah, and then you have to explain to everyone who you used to be, that your low post count doesn't mean you're a troll, and that you know more about everyone here because you have been here longer than your join date rather than being a psychotic stalker. :-) It really shouldn't be this difficult, and putting in a place where you can list your location, even something general like "Florida" or "SE United States" would really be helpful to me, at least, when responding to a post of someone I don't know. Not much point in explaining how the Gulf Stream helps to control weather to someone who lives in Cucamonga.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Great reply folks , here's hoping the largest cyclone you ever saw comes over your house soon. Then you can lecture all of us about recovery , and climate.
I hope something like that never happens at your house soon, or ever. Quite an amazing attitude.

Quoting 237. sar2401:

I have a few others that simply want to be argumentative, and I'd prefer not to see that either. All the others on here are fine.
I'm argumentative, and you presumably like me? :)
Quoting 169. ColoradoBob1:

Great reply folks , here's hoping the largest cyclone you ever saw comes over your house soon. Then you can lecture all of us about recovery , and climate.

Hope from necessity as only confrontation teaches. I absolutely concur. In which way may be found via google 'cRR Kampen cyclone Ita' (for a small viral).
Quoting 241. cRRKampen:


Hope from necessity as only confrontation teaches. I absolutely concur. In which way may be found via google 'cRR Kampen cyclone Ita' (for a small viral).
I'm starting to know which two bloggers not to take seriously.

Since I don't do hints, it's you and Bob.
Seriously, I'm firmly immoral and unorthodox if we're going by typical American cultural norms, so when I recognize your folly you know you're bad off.

No hints again. If anything, you guys are the ones wishing for destruction. No one else.

Maybe it's time to calm down and behave like a rational adult? As I told Bob, this isn't the way to get people to understand your viewpoint, much less even change their own.
Quoting 215. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The monthly PDO value for December 2014 is in at a whopping 2.51. This is the highest December value on record going back to 1900 and the 10th highest PDO value for any month through the same base period.




CFSv2 may be right after all?
Good morning! 1.46" at my location in NW Tampa yesterday. Not surprisingly, the Tampa airport reporting station only recorded 0.25". Without fail, the heaviest rains always miss the station in Tampa. Very foggy this morning. When I went for my morning run, I could barely see much ahead of me.
I picked up .13" at the house. It rained harder in the city. Naples missed out completely on the rain. Still really wimpy rain totals compared to up north.

34F and sunny here at lunchtime after snow showers put down an unexpected half-inch covering this morning. The Met Office has upgraded the warnings and snow forecast for the the next 24 hours. First proper winter weather for two years at least...

A cold and very unstable westerly flow covers the UK. This will bring frequent showers of hail, sleet and snow through Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. These will be heavy at times and produce large amounts of lying snow on high ground throughout. However, as surfaces cool off later this afternoon the snow is likely to begin to settle at low levels, with this evening's snow potentially producing locally 5-8 cm above around 100 m in a short space of time, and over 10 cm above around 200 m. Wednesday morning could see similar amounts of snow fall once again, on top of what will already be lying.
What a day yesterday with regards to heavy rainfall totals. Here they are below. Mind you average is roughly 2.5" for the whole month of January!!

DeLeon Springs 5.44"
At my office in Altamonte Springs 4.09"
At my house westside of Longwood 2.30"
Downtown Orlando per Naga5000 3.79"
Orlando Executive 3.45"
Orlando International 2.98"
Lake Mary 2.41"
Daytona Beach 1.58"
Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:

What a day yesterday with regards to heavy rainfall totals. Here they are below. Mind you average is roughly 2.5" for the whole month of January!!

DeLeon Springs 5.44"
At my office in Altamonte Springs 4.09"
At my house westside of Longwood 2.30"
Downtown Orlando per Naga5000 3.79"
Orlando Executive 3.45"
Orlando International 2.98"
Lake Mary 2.41"
Daytona Beach 1.58"



At least I'm safe from this sort of thing from November to March in DC metro area.
Very important week with regards to enso as both the Euro and IRI models all update either Thursday or
Friday. The CFSv2 updated yesterday and its not looking good for this years Hurricane Season for the Atlantic Basin. As I have been saying for 3 months now the Euro and CFSv2 are latching onto another powerful Kelvin Wave coming into the W-Pac.

September


This next Warm Pool is going to have to be dealt with as it is on par with the size of the first one last Spring.


Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:

What a day yesterday with regards to heavy rainfall totals. Here they are below. Mind you average is roughly 2.5" for the whole month of January!!

DeLeon Springs 5.44"
At my office in Altamonte Springs 4.09"
At my house westside of Longwood 2.30"
Downtown Orlando per Naga5000 3.79"
Orlando Executive 3.45"
Orlando International 2.98"
Lake Mary 2.41"
Daytona Beach 1.58"



NWS reported PWAT values of 1.9 for the Tampa Bay area, which is just unprecedented for January. We've now seen PWATs of 2.3 in November during that one heavy rain event and now 1.9 for yesterday's rain. Just insane.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

NCZ012>014-030-VAZ065-066-079>082-087>094-096-131 930-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.150114T0500Z-150114T1800Z/
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-BERTIE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-
SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-SUFFOLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE...
SOUTH HILL...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMP ORIA...
WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN... NEWPORT NEWS...
HAMPTON
627 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 460...
MIDDLE PENINSULA AREAS (EXCEPT TIDEWATER) AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS: ONE TO TWO TENTHS INCH OF ICE.

* TEMPERATURES: MID TO UPPER 20S WELL INLAND...UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

* WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

Quoting 234. sar2401:

Sounds like you need to invest in some strap on ice cleats. Easy to put on and you have a lot better chance of getting home in one piece after trying to restrain 230 pounds of out of control dog. Radar Dog only weights 65 pounds and there's no way I'd try to walk him if we regularly had ice without ice cleats. I'd be dragged all the way back home. :-)



What embarasses me is I already have them. Somewhere....??
This would be a Super El-Nino if the CFSv2 pans out. As Dr. Steve mentioned 2 weeks I have never seen all members of the CFSv2 predict such a strong El-Nino for 3 to 4 months running.

Quoting 247. Sfloridacat5:

I picked up .13" at the house. It rained harder in the city. Naples missed out completely on the rain. Still really wimpy rain totals compared to up north.




I'm surprised Ft. Myers picked up 0.37. I didn't see anything on the radar down there all day or night. I woke up at 2:30 AM and checked the radar and SE FL was getting hammered. Just seems like all of the heavy rains miss SW FL.
Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:

What a day yesterday with regards to heavy rainfall totals. Here they are below. Mind you average is roughly 2.5" for the whole month of January!!

DeLeon Springs 5.44"
At my office in Altamonte Springs 4.09"
At my house westside of Longwood 2.30"
Downtown Orlando per Naga5000 3.79"
Orlando Executive 3.45"
Orlando International 2.98"
Lake Mary 2.41"
Daytona Beach 1.58"



Scott, where do you pull the images for the HRRR model? I'm interested in checking that in the future as it seems to do well when PWAT values are high.
Quoting 252. tampabaymatt:



NWS reported PWAT values of 1.9 for the Tampa Bay area, which is just unprecedented for January. We've now seen PWATs of 2.3 in November during that one heavy rain event and now 1.9 for yesterday's rain. Just insane.


Good point and I was getting to that as i was tracking this plum of high PWAT air as it was entering into the Eastern Caribbean last week. This plum moved around the southern periphery of a strong high east of the Bahamas and then merged with a short wave coming from the Gulf. It could be that the high east of the Bahamas is stronger than normal for this time of year as their have been several of these high PWAT plumes that have merged with fronts coming down toward FL causing insanely high rainfall totals to occur.

Quoting 257. tampabaymatt:



Scott, where do you pull the images for the HRRR model? I'm interested in checking that in the future as it seems to do well when PWAT values are high.


You can get them fore free here. I use weatherbell as the graphics are better but here is the free version below.

Link
That band just missed my location, but I doubt we see the sun today.



Here is what Altamonte Springs looked like yesterday afternoon. Flooding was all over the place yesterday afternoon.



Tampa Bay area
A lot of talk about the CFSv2 lately but it has accurately showed this cooling trend across the enso regions for months now as we entered toward the New Year. So the cooling is no surprise as the model is keying on this next Warm Pool heading for the W-Pac. It's this next warm pool that could open the door for what could be the strongest El-Nino since 1997 as the PDO is at 1997 levels right now. This PDO is very important as this will cuase heavy rains to target FL all Spring and Early Summer and their could some serious flooding iussues going forward.



March


April


May


June


July
H I Scott, love your enthusiasm for the Nino, but I highly doubt it will be any where near as strong as the models are predicting this far out. Why not wait until after the spring forecast before making predictions for the upcoming hurricane season as we all know how reliable models are this far into the future. I believe we will get a Nino, but a weak one ending in the late Spring.
Quoting 264. NativeSun:

H I Scott, love your enthusiasm for the Nino, but I highly doubt it will be any where near as strong as the models are predicting this far out. Why not wait until after the spring forecast before making predictions for the upcoming hurricane season as we all know how reliable models are this far into the future. I believe we will get a Nino, but a weak one ending in the late Spring.


Well the CFSv2 starts cranking up the values as we enter May & June timeframe and if this happens we won't see El-Nino declared until September.

Any rain by you yesterday in SE FL?
Scott, your putting way to much trust in the long range models, especially the ones that suit your forecast for the upcoming Spring, Nino, and Hurricane Season.
Not hard to pick out the storm track here for the next couple of weeks that means boring weather across the Northern US.



Quoting 266. NativeSun:

Scott, your putting way to much trust in the long range models, especially the ones that suit your forecast for the upcoming Spring, Nino, and Hurricane Season.


No I'm not as models are trending toward the CFSv2. Euro has trended that way and it appears that on Thursday's update that some of the IRI models will trend toward the CFSv2 as well so this is going to be an interesting couple of months as the PDO is at insanely high levels only since 1997 have we seen values this high.
Scott, we had a few storms this morning, but not that much rain, as you seem to be hoarding all the rain up in your area. I don't like a dry winter or spring as this usually leads to a very wet summer, and I don't mean the usual afternoon type rains from thunderstorms.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I'm surprised Ft. Myers picked up 0.37. I didn't see anything on the radar down there all day or night. I woke up at 2:30 AM and checked the radar and SE FL was getting hammered. Just seems like all of the heavy rains miss SW FL.


I'm not sure either. Only .13" at the house and that was spread out over a long period of time. We really had nothing more than sprinkles here. And points to my south got pretty much no rain.

Naples has only seen 1.35" in the past 3 months.

November - 1.05"
December - .25"
January - .10"
Scott, all I'm saying is your putting s lot of trust in long range models, and none of the long range models are worth a dam. I would wait until after the models come out for Spring or Summer forecast and not the long range models. The long range Nino models are less accurate than Dr. Grays Winter forecast for this upcoming hurricane season.
Quoting 270. Sfloridacat5:



I'm not sure either. Only .13" at the house and that was spread out over a long period of time. We really had nothing more than sprinkles here. And points to my south got pretty much no rain.

Naples has only seen 1.35" in the past 3 months.

November - 1.05"
December - .25"
January - .10"


Euro ensembles has a hole over SW FL the next 10 days while the rest of the state stays wet. Maybe you guys need to start doing a rain dance or something. If you and Nea are up to it do a Indian style rain dance and post it on the blog.



Quoting 272. NativeSun:

Scott, all I'm saying is your putting s lot of trust in long range models, and none of the long range models a worth a dam. I would wait until after the models come out for Spring or Summer forecast and not the long range models. The long range Nino models are less accurate than Dr. Grays Winter forecast for this upcoming hurricane season.


I get what your saying but my point is by then El-Nino could already be developing by Spring and could be declared come September.
Scott, all we can do is wait, I sure hope something changes, La Nina, El Nino, anything is better than these last few Hurricane seasons.
Quoting 271. WxGuy2014:

Same thing every single day. Daily CFL rain totals and the super El Nino forecast. Like clockwork lol. Central Florida is the center of the universe and El Nino is coming every single day!

The rest of January looks warm. No complaints here i hate the cold. We may not see another freeze the way its going.




This was a notable event for Central FL and daily totals are of interest to many on this blog. I am surprised that a PWAT of 1.9" is that unusual for FL in winter but I don't keep that statistic in my graycells there (or here in DC metro).
Our high winter PWATS are over 1.5" and we're a lot further north.
Quoting 276. georgevandenberghe:



This was a notable event for Central FL and daily totals are of interest to many on this blog. I am surprised that a PWAT of 1.9" is that unusual for FL in winter but I don't keep that statistic in my graycells there (or here in DC metro).
Our high winter PWATS are over 1.5" and we're a lot further north.


NWS stated the 1.9" PWAT for Tampa was in the 99% percentile for this time of the year. Very unusual to be seeing these soupy air masses affect C FL in the dry season.

Terra pass of Bansi 1-13-2015 0620Z
Quoting 276. georgevandenberghe:



This was a notable event for Central FL and daily totals are of interest to many on this blog. I am surprised that a PWAT of 1.9" is that unusual for FL in winter but I don't keep that statistic in my graycells there (or here in DC metro).
Our high winter PWATS are over 1.5" and we're a lot further north.


Not that uncommon no but the difference is these high PWAT plumes have been pretty common the last few months delivering rainfall totals in some cases what one would expect during the wet season. The totals yesterday in many areas are nearly half for what we would expect the whole month of June.
Quoting 279. StormTrackerScott:



Not that uncommon no but the difference is these high PWAT plumes have been pretty common the last few months delivering rainfall totals in some cases what one would expect during the wet season. The totals yesterday in many areas are nearly half for what we would expect the whole month of June.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 PM EST MON JAN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS WARM MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. 00Z TBW RAOB SAMPLED THIS UNSEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WITH A PWAT VALUE OF 1.83 BEING MEASURED. THIS IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY. GIVEN THIS AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE A BIG CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA.
With what appears to be a neutral/la nina atmosphere this coming hurricane season, Global Weather Oscilliation Inc is already predicting a very active and dangerous 2015 season. it also says that this trend will continue for the next season. GWO has even predicted six months ahead of this season, that there will be 14 named storms 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The CEO of GWO has predicted that there will be no El nino this year.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST January 13 2015
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.5N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving west.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 9.7N 137.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/ Tropical Storm) Near Caroline Islands

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BANSI (05-20142015)
16:00 PM RET January 13 2015
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (938 hPa) located at 17.2S 57.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 145 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 4 knots

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 120 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.3S 58.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 17.8S 59.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 19.5S 61.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 23.0S 63.8E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
During the past 6 hours, a weakening trend of intensity was observed probably owing to an eyewall replacement cycle. It is confirmed by the 1114z SSMI microwave picture.

Bansi tracks slowly eastward under the steering influence of mid-level ridge which is building north of the system. Bansi should keep this track during the next 24 hours at a quite slow speed within a weak steering environment.

On Wednesday, the mid-level ridge shifts back in the east of the system and a col builds in its south, a southeastwards motion is then expected. Bansi is then expected to keep on tracking and accelerating southeastwards until Saturday.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very favorable on today and Wednesday under the upper level ridge axis as at least 2 upper level channels equatorward and poleward take place within the period. Bansi is expected to remain intense with slight fluctuated intensity.

Thursday, Bansi is likely to shift south of the upper level ridge axis and keeps only its poleward outflow channel and an upper level trough should getting closer from its southwest. Therefore, vertical wind shear should increase from Thursday evening.

On Friday, Bansi is likely to begin to weaken owing to westerly vertical wind shear and the lowering oceanic heat content.

The inhabitants of Mauritius and Rodriques islands should closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system within the next days.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS II IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

Satellite observations indicate that BANSI has reached its peak intensity by midday. During the last
few hours, it has shown signs of weakening and it is now an intense tropical cyclone. BANSI is reported to be about 300 kilometers to the north of Mauritius. BANSI continues to move in a general easterly direction

In view of its position and intensity and its expected recurvature towards the southeast tonight, the
center of BANSI may come closer to Mauritius. Therefore, intense tropical cyclone BANSI
remains a potential threat to Mauritius and the risk of experiencing cyclonic winds still exist.
Quoting 281. stoormfury:

With what appears to be a neutral/la nina atmosphere this coming hurricane season, Global Weather Oscilliation Inc is already predicting a very active and dangerous 2015 season. it also says that this trend will continue for the next season. GWO has even predicted six months ahead of this season, that there will be 14 named storms 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The CEO of GWO has predicted that there will be no El nino this year.


Any link?
Quoting 277. tampabaymatt:



NWS stated the 1.9" PWAT for Tampa was in the 99% percentile for this time of the year. Very unusual to be seeing these soupy air masses affect C FL in the dry season.


Point taken . A 99'th percentile January event, assuming independence for each day has a return period of about three years. Assuming independence for each cycle, the return period is less than that but most weather statistics are autocorrelated. I'm surprised it's that rare.. learn something every day.
Sioux City, Iowa hit 13 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 10 on Jan. 7
Alpena, Michigan hit 10 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 2 on Jan. 7
Flint, Michigan hit 8 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 2 above on Jan. 10
Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 5 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 0 on Jan. 8
Houghton Lake, Michigan hit 16 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 5 on Jan. 5
Lansing, Michigan hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 1 on Jan. 8
Muskegon, Michigan hit 0 on Tuesday morning; previous low 4 on Jan. 8
Pellston, Michigan hit 21 below zero early Tuesday; previous low minus 16 on Jan. 7
Traverse City, Michigan hit 12 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 2 above on Jan. 5
Rochester, Minnesota hit 16 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 14 on Jan. 5
St. Cloud, Minnesota hit 18 below zero Monday evening and 21 below early Tuesday; previous low minus 11 on Jan. 5 and Jan. 10
Lincoln, Nebraska hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 3 on Jan. 7
Omaha, Nebraska hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 2 on Jan. 7
Sioux Falls, South Dakota hit 15 below zero Monday evening and 16 below early Tuesday; previous low minus 12 on Jan. 6
Eau Claire, Wisconsin hit 21 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 17 on Jan. 5
Rhinelander, Wisconsin hit 24 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 22 on Jan. 5
Wausau, Wisconsin hit 18 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 17 on Jan. 5
Wednesday morning could bring the season's coldest temperatures from southern Michigan and northern Indiana east across northern Ohio and into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, including:
Quoting 289. hurricanes2018:

Sioux City, Iowa hit 13 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 10 on Jan. 7
Alpena, Michigan hit 10 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 2 on Jan. 7
Flint, Michigan hit 8 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 2 above on Jan. 10
Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 5 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 0 on Jan. 8
Houghton Lake, Michigan hit 16 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 5 on Jan. 5
Lansing, Michigan hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 1 on Jan. 8
Muskegon, Michigan hit 0 on Tuesday morning; previous low 4 on Jan. 8
Pellston, Michigan hit 21 below zero early Tuesday; previous low minus 16 on Jan. 7
Traverse City, Michigan hit 12 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low 2 above on Jan. 5
Rochester, Minnesota hit 16 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 14 on Jan. 5
St. Cloud, Minnesota hit 18 below zero Monday evening and 21 below early Tuesday; previous low minus 11 on Jan. 5 and Jan. 10
Lincoln, Nebraska hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 3 on Jan. 7
Omaha, Nebraska hit 4 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 2 on Jan. 7
Sioux Falls, South Dakota hit 15 below zero Monday evening and 16 below early Tuesday; previous low minus 12 on Jan. 6
Eau Claire, Wisconsin hit 21 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 17 on Jan. 5
Rhinelander, Wisconsin hit 24 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 22 on Jan. 5
Wausau, Wisconsin hit 18 below zero Tuesday morning; previous low minus 17 on Jan. 5
Wednesday morning could bring the season's coldest temperatures from southern Michigan and northern Indiana east across northern Ohio and into northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, including:


It was -29 at my pws East of Grayling Michigan, Grayling got down to -24
Current Low Risk Systems...........well for my area at least:

Image Credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com
here are the mid december enso 3.4 plumes means......rather than take my word or the word of others...you can see for and make your own educated decision if the euro and the cfsv2 are alike or not......





hello
Tropicsweatherpr, google GLOBAAL WEATHER OSCILLIATION AND YOU WILL GET ALL THE RELATIVE INFORMATION
Quoting 292. ricderr:

here are the mid december enso 3.4 plumes means......rather than take my word or the word of others...you can see for and make your own educated decision if the euro and the cfsv2 are alike or not......






greetings Ric. Nino was moving at a good pace with some impressive numbers last year , only to be halted by some unusual conditions. Nino may take hold later this year , but it is taking its time.
295. wxmod
BEIJING (REUTERS) - China aims to induce more than 60 billion cubic metres of additional rain each year by 2020, using an "artificial weather" programme to fight chronic water shortages, the government said on Monday.

China has already allocated funds of 6.51 billion yuan (S$1.45 billion) for artificial weather creation since 2008, the State Council, or cabinet, said in a document setting out the programme from 2014 to 2020.
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/east-asia/s tory/china-sets-2020-artificial-weather-target-com bat-water-shortages-20150113

BEIJING (REUTERS) - China aims to induce more than 60 billion cubic metres of additional rain each year by 2020, using an "artificial weather" programme to fight chronic water shortages, the government said on Monday.

China has already allocated funds of 6.51 billion yuan (S$1.45 billion) for artificial weather creation since 2008, the State Council, or cabinet, said in a document setting out the programme from 2014 to 2020.
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/east-asia/s tory/china-sets-2020-artificial-weather-target-com bat-water-shortages-20150113
I thought man would have learned to leave weather alone by now...
300. wxmod
Quoting 297. washingtonian115:


BEIJING (REUTERS) - China aims to induce more than 60 billion cubic metres of additional rain each year by 2020, using an "artificial weather" programme to fight chronic water shortages, the government said on Monday.

China has already allocated funds of 6.51 billion yuan (S$1.45 billion) for artificial weather creation since 2008, the State Council, or cabinet, said in a document setting out the programme from 2014 to 2020.
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/east-asia/s tory/china-sets-2020-artificial-weather-target-com bat-water-shortages-20150113
I thought man would have learned to leave weather alone by now...


One point four five BILLION dollars for weather modification. Maybe that's why California doesn't get much rain.
Quoting 300. wxmod:



One point four five BILLION dollars for weather modification. Maybe that's why California doesn't get much rain.


singapore dollars, actually. so about 1.15 billion USD. since 2008. so about 165 million/year. which, to be fair, doesn't sound like it goes too far. that'll buy a single f-35 fighter.
302. wxmod
Quoting 301. schwankmoe:



singapore dollars, actually. so about 1.15 billion USD. since 2008. so about 165 million/year. which, to be fair, doesn't sound like it goes too far. that'll buy a single f-35 fighter.


Hey Schwank...
So, why are you trying to downplay the significance of China's weather modification program. We're not talking about China buying a high tech jet. We're talking about them dumping millions of tons of mining waste into the delicate, finite atmosphere with totally unknown effects. Schwank... you gotta breathe too. Or maybe not.
Quoting 302. wxmod:



Hey Schwank...
So, why are you trying to downplay the significance of China's weather modification program. We're not talking about China buying a high tech jet. We're talking about them dumping millions of tons of mining waste into the delicate, finite atmosphere with totally unknown effects. Schwank... you gotta breathe too. Or maybe not.


i don't breathe at all. because i'm part of the conspiracy. duh duh DUUUUUN
304. wxmod
Quoting 303. schwankmoe:



i don't breathe at all. because i'm part of the conspiracy. duh duh DUUUUUN


So Schwankie,
Why you tryin to paint that China spending 1.45 BILLION bucks on weather modification is some kind of a conspiracy. The story I posted was written at REUTERS news agency. Or are they pretty far out of YOUR main stream media.
Quoting 256. tampabaymatt:



I'm surprised Ft. Myers picked up 0.37. I didn't see anything on the radar down there all day or night. I woke up at 2:30 AM and checked the radar and SE FL was getting hammered. Just seems like all of the heavy rains miss SW FL.


about right. I had .4 inches out in Buckingham
Quoting 275. NativeSun:

Scott, all we can do is wait, I sure hope something changes, La Nina, El Nino, anything is better than these last few Hurricane seasons.


Really? I suppose you don't pay homeowners insurance and enjoy the destruction accompanying hurricanes . For those of us that pay and have had to rebuild our homes (see Andrew 1992), and have seen our rates go up significantly the last few years WITHOUT any hurricanes, we'll take many more seasons like we have been having!
Quoting rjsenterp:
You don't need to be a scientist to know that the Earth goes through hot periods, cold periods, wet periods, and dry periods. This article is a statement of the obvious and proves nothing.
You don't need to be a scientist, but you do need to know enough about science to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place over many hundreds or thousands of years--not a handful of decades. And you also need to know enough about history to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place when there weren't billions of people crawling around on its surface, every one of them dependent on a stable climate.
Quoting 300. wxmod:



One point four five BILLION dollars for weather modification. Maybe that's why California doesn't get much rain.


It's cloud seeding. China has been doing this for quite some time with relatively mixed results. Colorado has done this for the ski resorts since about 2004, although other programs have been active since the 50's, and at least 9 other states run cloud seeding programs, again with mixed results.
Quoting 304. wxmod:



So Schwankie,
Why you tryin to paint that China spending 1.45 BILLION bucks on weather modification is some kind of a conspiracy. The story I posted was written at REUTERS news agency. Or are they pretty far out of YOUR main stream media.


reuters is part of the conspiracy. they're just a front for the rothschilds.

or maybe i've said too much. forget that last part.
Quoting 215. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The monthly PDO value for December 2014 is in at a whopping 2.51. This is the highest December value on record going back to 1900 and the 10th highest PDO value for any month through the same base period.



Rest in peace El Nino. That is the weakest warm enso signal we've seen in over a year. With the +PDO we should hope that it makes a comeback with the support of a westerly wind burst. I'd say that this year's spring forecast will be the hardest I've had to contend with. (I officially hate ENSO neutrals).
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:



Euro ensembles has a hole over SW FL the next 10 days while the rest of the state stays wet. Maybe you guys need to start doing a rain dance or something. If you and Nea are up to it do a Indian style rain dance and post it on the blog.






Opening up the roof to do some work on the underlying supports should do the trick. Washing and waxing the car often works too.
Quoting 193. washingtonian115:




Somewhere far far from DC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE LAND ZONES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED. ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL NOT BE NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND AS FAR
NORTH AS INTERSTATE 4 THIS AFTERNOON. HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THESE AREAS WILL SEE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING THEY
CAN GET LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
MONITOR THE AREA CLOSELY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
greetings Ric. Nino was moving at a good pace with some impressive numbers last year , only to be halted by some unusual conditions. Nino may take hold later this year , but it is taking its time.


i think...that if we do not see an el nino declared withing the coming months....we will not see one in spring....model consensus does not support a spring event...and noaa...the aussie mets....and the japanese agencies....also do not support a spring event

Quoting 306. capeflorida:



Really? I suppose you don't pay homeowners insurance and enjoy the destruction accompanying hurricanes . For those of us that pay and have had to rebuild our homes (see Andrew 1992), and have seen our rates go up significantly the last few years WITHOUT any hurricanes, we'll take many more seasons like we have been having!
All the man is saying is that we don't know how the hurricane season will end up because nothing is clear cut unlike some years.
moe~ why an F-35 Fighter? They mostly use Cessna 340s for cloudseeding in Santa Barbra, CA & drones for weather modification is the newest rage.. Six states have been okayed for drone Weather modification cloudseeding already..

I couldn't find a quick figure for what they spent in Santa Barbra last year in their county govt released year end cloudseeding review but looks like they cloudseeded a lot.. Would be interesting to see who is spending more.
Really? I suppose you don't pay homeowners insurance and enjoy the destruction accompanying hurricanes . For those of us that pay and have had to rebuild our homes (see Andrew 1992), and have seen our rates go up significantly the last few years WITHOUT any hurricanes, we'll take many more seasons like we have been having!


you tell em.....
Now in Canoas (north of Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) we have 100ºF with heat index of 117ºF.

In the North of Porto Alegre we have 97ºF.

Centro Integrado de Comando de Porto Alegre (Porto Alegre's Prefecture website with meteorological stations):
Link

The dawn today in Camboriu, Santa Catarina state, Brazil:


From:
Link
Quoting 312. georgevandenberghe:



Somewhere far far from DC
Yes :).1209 miles from D.C.I would like to take the truck and just drive along that bridge with the music playing.That is one of my goals before I get extreamly old.
Quoting 307. Neapolitan:

You don't need to be a scientist, but you do need to know enough about science to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place over many hundreds or thousands of years--not a handful of decades. And you also need to know enough about history to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place when there weren't billions of people crawling around on its surface, every one of them dependent on a stable climate.
Yep..I heard someone say that humans on earth are similar to fleas on a dog , and fleas do not hurt the dog other than being a minor nuisance..Talk to any Veterinarian , and they will say fleas will kill a dog in short order if the dog is left untreated. My vet has seen hundreds of dogs die from exsanguination and dirt due to fleas. I would post more pictures of pollution and factory emissions here on the blog , but then I would certainly receive a ration, or get a ban for being off topic. Humans have been polluting the air and land areas for well over a century. Anyone who believes it has not caused a serious problem is sadly mistaken. I have seen with my own eyes toxic waste dump sites and hazardous waste sites that would make any normal human being sick to there stomachs. These sites contain huge amounts of pathogens. Even a tiny amount can pollute a vast amount of land or water. These toxins kill and cause disease in humans and animals , animals moreso because they are not aware of the danger. Many times humans are not aware either , and become sick or die. The chemicals and heavy metals cause genetic disorders as well. There is no cure for many people or animals once they are affected . Most are just treated to make life bearable until they die. I hope one day the pollution will be stopped.



Stock Photo titled: Toxic Dump Site. Drums Of Industrial Waste .



Known hazardous waste sites..




Special Statement
Statement as of 10:41 AM EST on January 13, 2015
...Patchy black ice into this afternoon...

Temperatures will remain mainly in the 20s into this afternoon. This will allow for any patches of black ice that have formed to persist...especially on untreated surfaces. Caution should be exercised while driving into this afternoon.
Far out. DONT TAKE SERIOUSLY......................................... ...................................... yet.

Hopefully we get a pattern like this by late January though.
Quoting 319. washingtonian115:

Yes :).1209 miles from D.C.I would like to take the truck and just drive along that bridge with the music playing.That is one of my goals before I get extreamly old.


A worthy goal too. I've been there. Take a couple of weeks or better yet stay over a winter..


Out of the six states approved for drone weather modification I only see Nevada being mentioned by name on any reliable site. Their governor's office has come out with their plans on it.. & I quote... ... "like a huge ball with lots of strings sticking out, and rolling ever so slowly, to get these partnerships formed",says Fenstermaker. "The UAS (Unmanned Aircraft System) gold rush has taken off."

The big UAS convention is in CA next fall. There is several articles speculating drones could help Weather Modification there, maybe used there.. but no real good confirmation.


Good and bad news for drone haters.. The tiny town of Deer Trail, Colorado, tried (and failed) to pass an ordinance that would have issued open season on unmanned aerial vehicles. There is a Utah based company that isn't waiting on the law to be on there side. They have developed a fictional metal head character..Jonny Dronehunter to advocate their new shotgun silencer.. I'll crash & burn my part in this topic with a link to that YouTube..
Models continue to trend a little more north and west with the precip and now have light to moderate snow in the DC metro region tonight
CWG has issued a snowfall map also
Quoting 323. Tornado6042008X:

Far out. DONT TAKE SERIOUSLY......................................... ...................................... yet.

Hopefully we get a pattern like this by late January though.



We've been hoping since November.
Yes :).1209 miles from D.C.I would like to take the truck and just drive along that bridge with the music playing.That is one of my goals before I get extreamly old.

i lived in the keys for 6 years......it wasn't where i wanted to live and raise kids...but i'll be back when i retire
Quoting 312. georgevandenberghe:



Somewhere far far from DC
Yep..I have been across both those bridges many times..A true nightmare driving across the old railroad trestles that where made into bridges.
Quoting 316. Skyepony:

moe~ why an F-35 Fighter?


just a similar cost. that's all.
Quoting 329. ricderr:

Yes :).1209 miles from D.C.I would like to take the truck and just drive along that bridge with the music playing.That is one of my goals before I get extreamly old.

i lived in the keys for 6 years......it wasn't where i wanted to live and raise kids...but i'll be back when i retire
Indeed..I was born on Miami Beach , but was not where my parents wanted to raise the kids.


New Metal-Eating Shrub Species Could Clean Up Toxic Waste Site.
334. jpsb
Quoting 307. Neapolitan:

You don't need to be a scientist, but you do need to know enough about science to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place over many hundreds or thousands of years--not a handful of decades. And you also need to know enough about history to realize that all the previous hot and cold and wet and dry periods Earth has gone through took place when there weren't billions of people crawling around on its surface, every one of them dependent on a stable climate.


That is simply not true

The time span of the past few million years has been punctuated by many rapid climate transitions, most of them on time scales of centuries to decades or even less.
Good evening. Two different visitors in sight for the Philippines, one approaching from the East and one from the West:

Below is the one from the East. The other one is dressed in white as well :-)


Tropical depression to enter PAR Wednesday or Thursday
Once it enters the Philippines as a storm, the weather system will be named 'Amang'
Rappler.com, Published 6:21 PM, Jan 13, 2015
...The forecasted arrival of the storm coincides with Pope Francis' visit to the Philippines. Catholic Church representatives have said the storm could prompt organizers to cancel the Pope's visit to Leyte province. ...
Quoting 334. jpsb:



That is simple not true

The time span of the past few million years has been punctuated by many rapid climate transitions, most of them on time scales of centuries to decades or even less.


Previous events were natural, this one is not, thanks for making that quite obvious. Since you are using a paper from 1999, you should probably be more aware of the temperature reconstructions since then, and the fact we can measure current forcings and we know what is causing the current warming making your entire argument moot on its face. The Shakun and Marcott papers clearly show this current rate of warming is seen nowhere within the data of the past 22,000 years. The rate of change is unprecedented:


And next time, please link to the full published paper and not some no longer updated one. Thanks.

Quoting 314. ricderr:

greetings Ric. Nino was moving at a good pace with some impressive numbers last year , only to be halted by some unusual conditions. Nino may take hold later this year , but it is taking its time.


i think...that if we do not see an el nino declared withing the coming months....we will not see one in spring....model consensus does not support a spring event...and noaa...the aussie mets....and the japanese agencies....also do not support a spring event




I agree if the Euro and CFS are correct then El-Nino won't be declared to possibly September. The fact that both the Euro and CFSv2 have gone more bullish on El-Nino later this year does indeed raise an eyebrow as it seems to be, the focus is being put on this 3rd Oceanic Kelvin Wave heading for the W-Pac. You also note the CFSv2 did forecast a downward trend in its values for the first 2 months of this year before heading back up the ladder again.

Also a PDO of 2.51 is just incredible and is the highest that value has been since 1997.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CFSv2 may be right after all?

A positive PDO does not guarantee an El Niño, no. See also: 2014.
Quoting 338. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A positive PDO does not guarantee an El Niño, no. See also: 2014.


The longer it waits the better the chances are we eventually get one and i think this latest PDO reading maybe an ominous sign that one is looming and it could be a big one later this year.
340. jpsb
Quoting 336. Naga5000:



Previous events were natural, this one is not, thanks for making that quite obvious. Since you are using a paper from 1999, you should probably be more aware of the temperature reconstructions since then, and the fact we can measure current forcings and we know what is causing the current warming making your entire argument moot on its face. The Shakun and Marcott papers clearly show this current rate of warming is seen nowhere within the data of the past 22,000 years. The rate of change is unprecedented:

And next time, please link to the full published paper and not some no longer updated one. Thanks.




"Previous events were natural this one isn't " is just conjecture.

From wiki
In the Northern Hemisphere, they (Dansgaard–Oeschger events) take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common.


I think 8C of warming in 40 years beats what little warming (1C maybe?) we've seen in the last 60 years.
Quoting jpsb:


That is simply not true.
So--there *were* already billions of people on the planet millions of years ago?

Do tell...
Quoting 340. jpsb:



"Previous events were natural this one isn't " is just conjecture.

From wiki
In the Northern Hemisphere, they (Dansgaard%u2013Oeschger events) take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 %uFFFDC over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 %uFFFDC change over 30%u201340 years is more common.


I think 8C of warming in 40 years beats what little warming (1C maybe?) we've seen in the last 60 years.

We are talking about the planet, then you bring up Greenland. Funny, the data proves you wrong and you just change the subject, classic denialist tactic.


The amount of cognitive dissonance it requires to use paleoclimate research to try and justify your science denial to debunk the same researchers telling you there is no way the current warming is natural because of previous paleoclimatic research is quite unbelievable. I hope you realize that.

Edit: It is not conjecture unless you are claiming previous changes were not natural or this current change, despite all the data and evidence, is not driven by man made GHG. Either way, you are denying a whole lot of something that the science is extremely clear on.
I guess the question will become if we don't get an El-Nino this year is GW at hand here with some of these latest PDO values or is El-Nino really wanting to click this year. Lots of unknowns and plenty of time to sit and watch this unfold.
The rain train looks to continue across FL the next 2 weeks.

12Z GFS precip accum

Quoting 343. StormTrackerScott:

I guess the question will become if we don't get an El-Nino this year is that is GW at hand here with some of these latest PDO values or is El-Nino really wanting to click this year. Lots of unknowns and plenty of time to sit and watch this unfold.


I would have to say the added energy in the system and the changes in energy transfer occurring from AGW has to have some impact, but no one has the evidence to say if that impact is 1% or 99%. Dr. Rood believes the El-Nino models are no good due to their inability to reproduce those changes (my summary).
Quoting 340. jpsb:



"Previous events were natural this one isn't " is just conjecture.

From wiki
In the Northern Hemisphere, they (Dansgaard%u2013Oeschger events) take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 C change over 30%u201340 years is more common.


I think 8C of warming in 40 years beats what little warming (1C maybe?) we've seen in the last 60 years.


Note that the current warming is global, whereas that rapid warming of Greenland was local, with a redistribution of global heat. The current rate of global warming is many times what would be expected due to natural causes, and Earth should currently be undergoing a long term cooling due to natural causes alone.
Quoting hydrus:
Yep..I heard someone say that humans on earth are similar to fleas on a dog , and fleas do not hurt the dog other than being a minor nuisance..Talk to any Veterinarian , and he will say fleas will kill a dog in short order if the dog is left untreated. My vet has seen hundreds of dogs die from exsanguination and dirt due to fleas. I would post more pictures of pollution and factory emissions here on the blog , but then I would certainly receive a ration, or get a ban for being off topic. Humans have been polluting the air and land areas for well over a century. Anyone who believes it has not caused a serious problem is sadly mistaken. I have seen with my own eyes toxic waste dump sites and hazardous waste sites that would make any normal human being sick to there stomachs. These sites contain huge amounts of pathogens. Even a tiny amount can pollute a vast amount of land or water. These toxins kill and cause disease in humans and animals , animals moreso because they are not aware of the danger. Many times humans are not aware either , and become sick or die. The chemicals and heavy metals cause genetic disorders as well. There is no cure for many people or animals once they are affected . Most are just treated to make life bearable until they die. I hope one day the pollution will be stopped.



Stock Photo titled: Toxic Dump Site. Drums Of Industrial Waste .



Known hazardous waste sites..






Of course Jersey is completely covered on a map like that, haha. What does green represent?
I agree if the Euro and CFS are correct then El-Nino won't be declared to possibly September. The fact that both the Euro and CFSv2 have gone more bullish on El-Nino later this year does indeed raise an eyebrow as it seems to be the focus is being put on this 3rd Oceanic Kelvin Wave heading for the W-Pac.


scott..i'm not sure what we are agreeing on....i do not support an event being declared in the spring....summer or fall of this year.....i would propose that you read the models that you post......you mention in your post that the cfsv2 only gets bullish on an el nino in late summer/fall....that is as far from the truth as could be......i'll post it below and you can see...that if you are a proponent of this model......then....we already are in an el nino...and will continue through the summer...at which time...we'll transition from a weak el nino to a strong el nino.....hell.....a few weeks ago...it had us transitioning to a super el nino......of course....once again...the experts feel and have explained why....this model is in error

note january through june...it shows an anomaly greater than 0.05C......which would mean we are in an el nino



now as for the euro......the same holds true.....we would be in an el nino as of now....the difference...and why i state that it does not match the cfsv2 in anyways...and also why i am not buying its solution....is as of now....we would be in a moderate el nino event......(as of this monday CPC detailed last weeks 3.4 ENSO anomaly at 0.4 C.....a reading just under the el nino threshold)....so no.....they don't agree.......now as we progress into summer......while the CFSV2 strenghtens to "super duper" as you can see in the model chart....the euro weakens







Sun is out and its 80 degrees at the house.

Quoting 345. Naga5000:



I would have to say the added energy in the system and the changes in energy transfer occurring from AGW has to have some impact, but no one has the evidence to say if that impact is 1% or 99%. Dr. Rood believes the El-Nino models are no good due to their inability to reproduce those changes (my summary).


It's going to be interesting because its hard to get a PDO of plus 2.51 and not get El-Nino several months after. However if we don't get an El-Nino later this year are we entering uncharted territory in regards to how enso behaves due to the warming oceans. Highest PDO since 1997 says something but what is what is so mysterious with enso models going all over the place now so that is why I am eagerly awaiting the IRI enso model update either Thursday or Friday as this could shed some light as to what the CFS & Euro are seeing.
Quoting 348. ricderr:

I agree if the Euro and CFS are correct then El-Nino won't be declared to possibly September. The fact that both the Euro and CFSv2 have gone more bullish on El-Nino later this year does indeed raise an eyebrow as it seems to be the focus is being put on this 3rd Oceanic Kelvin Wave heading for the W-Pac.


scott..i'm not sure what we are agreeing on....i do not support an event being declared in the spring....summer or fall of this year.....i would propose that you read the models that you post......you mention in your post that the cfsv2 only gets bullish on an el nino in late summer/fall....that is as far from the truth as could be......i'll post it below and you can see...that if you are a proponent of this model......then....we already are in an el nino...and will continue through the summer...at which time...we'll transition from a weak el nino to a strong el nino.....hell.....a few weeks ago...it had us transitioning to a super el nino......of course....once again...the experts feel and have explained why....this model is in error

note january through june...it shows an anomaly greater than 0.05C......which would mean we are in an el nino



now as for the euro......the same holds true.....we would be in an el nino as of now....the difference...and why i state that it does not match the cfsv2 in anyways...and also why i am not buying its solution....is as of now....we would be in a moderate el nino event......(as of this monday CPC detailed last weeks 3.4 ENSO anomaly at 0.4 C.....a reading just under the el nino threshold)....so no.....they don't agree.......now as we progress into summer......while the CFSV2 strenghtens to "super duper" as you can see in the model chart....the euro weakens










You are wrong on the Euro sir. I will post this soon.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR MAY BE IMPACTED. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Euro also updates later this week.


Quoting 339. StormTrackerScott:



The longer it waits the better the chances are we eventually get one and i think this latest PDO reading maybe an ominous sign that one is looming and it could be a big one later this year.

According to whom? At some point, we're likely to see an El Nino again, but simply going several years without one does not increase the probability of actually seeing one in any given year.
You are wrong on the Euro sir. I will post this soon.

well.....i posted the euro means....which if it is wrong...you would have to say the CPC is wrong...i highly doubt that is the case....now i'm sure you will go to the ECMWF website...and you can post the plume chart from the first of december....but it doesn't show the means.....the thumb actually does...or if you are a paid member...or have access to a paid members account.....then you would have access to it....and then you would see...the cpc euro means graph posted...is indeed correct
According to whom? At some point, we're likely to see an El Nino again, but simply going several years without one does not increase the probability of actually seeing one in any given year.



thank you
Quoting 347. wxgeek723:



Of course Jersey is completely covered on a map like that, haha. What does green represent?
Howdy 723..I believe they are priority superfund sites..Here is a great link for toxic waste sites in the U.S. with Toxmaps included. N.J. obviously has a problem where hazardous waste is concerned.


Link
Quoting 354. TropicalAnalystwx13:


According to whom? At some point, we're likely to see an El Nino again, but simply going several years without one does not increase the probability of actually seeing one in any given year.


Going on 5 years with out an El-Nino usually get one every 2 to 5 years so the chances are we get one this year. I know its rough for many on here wanting a active hurricane season.

Climatology says we are due for El-Nino but again with the oceans warming it could be we are entering into uncharted territory.
Euro also updates later this week.


actually it has already updated...it's just not available on the free site as of yet

I do not understand why, when we have an entire plume of statistical and dynamical models showing warm Neutral to at best weak El Nino conditions through fall 2015, we continue to single out two models—the CFSv2 and ECMWF—that show extreme solutions and that have been continuously wrong over the past three years. Confirmation bias?
361. flsky
Looks like the 7-mile bridge in the FL keys.
Quoting 312. georgevandenberghe:



Somewhere far far from DC
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/tbw/TopNews/Jan11_ 1315Rainfall.pdf

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 155 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 ...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL (7 PM EST 01/11-10 AM EST 01/13)... RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE RANGED FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEARLY 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS SEEN IN THE IMAGE BELOW.
Good afternoon

It's a beautiful 80, light breezes with a few showers around the island today.

Just finished working on the web cams and I don't think I can get them much clearer than what they are now. Link Doing a bit of math, there are about 16,000 extra people on island today with a repeat tomorrow!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Quoting 354. TropicalAnalystwx13:


According to whom? At some point, we're likely to see an El Nino again, but simply going several years without one does not increase the probability of actually seeing one in any given year.


Exactly. ENSO events are independent of each other.

I do not understand why, when we have an entire plume of statistical and dynamical models showing warm Neutral to at best weak El Nino conditions through fall 2015, we continue to single out two models—the CFSv2 and ECMWF—that show extreme solutions and that have been continuously wrong over the past three years. Confirmation bias



maybe they would show what the poster hopes would happen.....
Looks like the 7-mile bridge in the FL keys.


aya it is
RE: ENSO...

Looks like a negative IOD episode is incoming. That doesn't bode well for an El Nino. More of a La Nina thing.




Umm, we drove exactly on this coastal road in Lycia/Southern Turkey during our vacations in late spring last year. Although under slightly better conditions ;-)

Culprit for this very stormy weather in the Eastern Mediterranean is a strong cut-off low:



Stranded vessel in Turkish Mersin, a bit more to the east:



Edit: Very agitated sea off Crete as well. Here a vessel thrown around by waves off Kolymvari:

Quoting 365. Drakoen:



Exactly. ENSO events are independent of each other.


You know better than that. El-Nino's typically come every 3 to 6 years some forecasters say 3 to even as much as 7 years but the rule of thumb is 3 to 6 years.

Again as i stated each year that goes by the chances increase.


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The term El Niño—Spanish for "the Christ Child"—was originally used by fishermen to refer to the Pacific Ocean warm currents near the coasts of Peru and Ecuador that appeared periodically around Christmas time and lasted for a few months. Due to those currents, fish were much less abundant than usual. At the present time we use the same name for the large-scale warming of surface waters of the Pacific Ocean every 3-6 years, which usually lasts for 9-12 months, but may continue for up to 18 months, and dramatically affects the weather
worldwide.


Link


Big snow blob merging together directly over us, with smaller ones over northern England. if it keeps trundling east then we could get a few hours of solid snowfall to build accumulations. 32F and about a half-inch-inch on the ground here.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST January 14 2015
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.2N 140.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 11.3N 135.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/ Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ---------------

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BANSI (05-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 13 2015
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (953 hPa) located at 17.4S 58.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 125 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
170 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 400 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.8S 58.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 18.4S 59.6E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 20.1S 62.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 23.7S 65.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
The eye of Bansi has disappeared just after 1200z this afternoon. Microwave imagery show that the system is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and is in the weakening phase as the inner core is collapsing with a building outer eyewall. The current position is based on a fair METOP and ASCAT-A fix at 1721z. The current intensity estimate hold the system as a minimal intense cyclone although this could be generous given the eyewall replacement cycle. SATCON of 1237z is at 94 kt (1 min winds).

Tomorrow, the mid-level ridge shifts back in the east of the system and a col builds in its south. Bansi is therefore expected to gradually accelerating southeastwards until Saturday. The current track forecast takes into account the very latest guidance from the 1200z cycle (including the euro model)

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very favorable on today and Wednesday under the upper level ridge axis as at least 2 upper level channels equatorward and poleward take place within the period. The current intensity forecast is lower than the previous one but Bansi is expected to become a very large tropical cyclone.

Thursday, Bansi is likely to shift south of the upper level ridge axis and keeps only its poleward outflow channel and an upper level trough should getting closer from its southwest. Therefore, vertical wind shear should increase from Thursday evening.

On Friday, Bansi is likely to begin to weaken owing to westerly vertical wind shear and the lowering oceanic heat content.

Due to the expected strong winds extension (after the eyewall replacement cycle), Bansi will remain an extremely dangerous system. Therefore, the inhabitants of Mauritius and specially Rodriques islands (increasing threat with severe weather conditions expected Thursday) should closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system within the next days.
NWS Tiyan, Guam
Tropical Depression 01W
====================================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR Fais, Ulithi, and Yap
Summer time regime across S FL today with pop up showers and storms due to the heating of the day.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Bansi ASCAT
Quoting 276. georgevandenberghe:



This was a notable event for Central FL and daily totals are of interest to many on this blog. I am surprised that a PWAT of 1.9" is that unusual for FL in winter but I don't keep that statistic in my graycells there (or here in DC metro).
Our high winter PWATS are over 1.5" and we're a lot further north.


Actually the comparative 99th in D.C. in January is just over 1.25 not over 1.5.
DC:


TPA:



The main reason it's a lot lower for both places in the winter is that the atmosphere as a whole is much colder and more shallow in the winter than summer. With that said, it takes less PW to create the condensation for heavy downpours in the winter.

D.C. being on the northeast coast has a lot higher PW climatology than areas to the west of comparable latitude because for a number of reasons, tropical moisture can transport more effectively up the east coast than areas west that are further inland.
Quoting 378. Jedkins01:



Actually the comparative 99th in D.C. in January is just over 1.25 not over 1.5.
DC:


TPA:



The main reason it's a lot lower for both places in the winter is that the atmosphere as a whole is much colder and more shallow in the winter than summer. With that said, it takes less PW to create the condensation for heavy downpours in the winter.

D.C. being on the northeast coast has a lot higher PW climatology than areas to the west of comparable latitude because for a number of reasons, tropical moisture can transport more effectively up the east coast than areas west that are further inland.



Thanks. BTW where did you get these numbers
380. jpsb
Quoting 342. Naga5000:


We are talking about the planet, then you bring up Greenland. Funny, the data proves you wrong and you just change the subject, classic denialist tactic.


The amount of cognitive dissonance it requires to use paleoclimate research to try and justify your science denial to debunk the same researchers telling you there is no way the current warming is natural because of previous paleoclimatic research is quite unbelievable. I hope you realize that.


I am talking about the entire planet, it warmed .... rapidly .... as the Greenland ice cores clearly document. And as depicted below




link

BTW as I look at the imagine I see numerous warm ups of planet Earth. Maybe just maybe this one is natural too. Maybe it will not be necessary to shutdown fossil fuel power plants and go back to horses/bicycles for personal transportation.

As for your "we know the forcing", well that is very much in debate. Some rather bright people with PhD's in climate science seem to think the CO2 forcing used by the IPCC is way too high. Google Dr J Curry for more on that.
Quoting 306. capeflorida:



Really? I suppose you don't pay homeowners insurance and enjoy the destruction accompanying hurricanes . For those of us that pay and have had to rebuild our homes (see Andrew 1992), and have seen our rates go up significantly the last few years WITHOUT any hurricanes, we'll take many more seasons like we have been having!
Hi Cape, in fact I pay about 17,000 a year for insurance. I built my house to withstand a cat 5 after Andrew at a great out of pocket expense after insurance checks. We also installed a whole house generator and an underground propane tank to run our grill, stove, hot water heater and other appliances, so I'm pretty well prepared. Living near the bay in South Florida is expensive so I tried to prepare my family and house for the worst. I've lived here since the 60s and love it here, have to be near or on the water as I love fishing and diving. Cape, tell me would you rather live in an area that experiences earthquakes tornadoes, fires, ice storms, or hurricanes. I prefer hurricanes as I will have a few days to prepare.
383. vis0
Quoting 166. CosmicEvents:

All that extra water weight added to a cyclone.
Think of a ballerina with chubby arms stumbling as she tries to spin up.
    What? Wxu could not fit nearly 20,000 characters in a comment ;-p (i'll post it on my last active blog ml-d reset)

DO NOT visit me for those that can easily figure out where, there was an offer in the comment i'll post it on my blog as to recording the affects of the portable ml-d, only for 1 or 2 wxu members) if no VId here showing seaguls its on the next comment and my last active blog. VID explained on my last active blog in its comments LATER TONITE ~11pm EzT busy having dinner. BURP ...had dinner see comments #25/#26 under the linked 'ml-d reset" blog.   i HIGHLY recommend the link MUST SEE edge os space -earth weather VID within comment #25 in my blog.