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The U.S. and European cold blast: blame the NAO

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:00 PM GMT on January 07, 2010

The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.

Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.


Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.


Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.

Jeff Masters
From The Porch 1
From The Porch 1
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
First snow
First snow
of winter in South Mississippi.
Wind blown snow
Wind blown snow
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. Motttt
32 in Sarasota
Shivering in empathy along with all you Florida folks but thoroughly enjoying our beautiful winter wunderland here in SW Mich. Goodnight for now. Stay warm and safe.
Quoting weatherbro:


A classic Miller A Type system(or at least a coastal huger). Watch out for severe thunderstorms over the Florida Peninsula and blizzard conditions from The Central Gulf Coast straight to Bean Town!

I wonder, does anyone got model projections on how strong and where the 93 storm was headed(as opposed to what actually occurred)? That'd be interesting.


They expected something strong I think 3-4 days out on computer models. In fact the 93 superstorm was the first major Nor easter event to be predicted by computer models fairly accurately. Now as far as the question on forecast strength v outcome, I dunno.
Outside on my clock-o-mometer is 37.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


You guys are killing me, ROFLMBAO.
Hubby can't figure it out; he thinks I'm laughing at the Simpson's 20th Anniversary show but it's not that funny.


mmmm forbidden doughnut nam nam nam...
Bord* I hope it ain't like 93. My area will be hit bad enough but i also have to worry about my bro and parents and most of my relatives in Miami. And my sister and relatives in NYC and Phili. If it is as bad as 93 that is.
It's colder in West Palm than Kodiak, Alaska!
3008. beell
A lot of the east coast impact may depend on how much strength the upper low coming out of the GOM can retain. It is modeled to be cut-off from the polar jet-no phasing with the northern stream. Filling in and weakening before it gets close to the Atlantic may be one outcome.
Quoting PcolaDan:


LMAO And to think they thought I was going to be a priest. (Cute, wasn't I!!!)


Daniel in the Emoticons' Den.
Yes, very cute!

22 degrees, feels like 12. Met just said "Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Really, that's what he said.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Daniel in the Emoticons' Den.
Yes, very cute!

22 degrees, feels like 12. Met just said "Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Really, that's what he said.


Emoticons' Den - gotta remember that one

"Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Oxymoron? :)
9,000 residents without power in Palm Beach County
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
9,000 residents without power in Palm Beach County


thats going to be cold
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Outside on my clock-o-mometer is 37.


mine says 18 :P
Quoting tornadodude:


mine says 18 :P


You guys should move up to the Frozen North where we are ;)

Quoting ElConando:
Bord* I hope it ain't like 93. My area will be hit bad enough but i also have to worry about my bro and parents and most of my relatives in Miami. And my sister and relatives in NYC and Phili. If it is as bad as 93 that is.


It was exciting and I could picture this "Siberian/Arctic Monstrosity" building and freezing out 2/3 of the CONUS, when I first heard about it on 12/27/09. It struck on 1/4/10 with a vengence that I and many others won't forget.

This next storm that will develop on We 1/13 and Th 1/14/10 will be intense. This is that "huge trough" that has literally been parked over the E PAC for 6 weeks, shooting storms up into the Pac NW and right now, British Columbia.

Unfortunately, there is not a "real good way" to gauge it's "true strength" as it has been sitting several hundred miles west of the CA coast. I am more prone to believe this will be a prolific rain/wind event. As Atmoaggie described it, similar to a Sub Tropical Storm.

I am not ready to say, look its the Superstorm of 2010, not yet!! Could it happen, yes.
Is KOG, Orca or someone here who can post an infra-red satallite pic of the Pacific off of CA out several hundred miles?
Wow. 50F in Greenland right now. Amazing.
Quoting beell:
A lot of the east coast impact may depend on how much strength the upper low coming out of the GOM can retain. It is modeled to be cut-off from the polar jet-no phasing with the northern stream. Filling in and weakening before it gets close to the Atlantic may be one outcome.


Which model and run says it'll cut-off?
Quoting tornadodude:


mine says 18 :P


Couldn’t imagine that. I love cold weather, but this spell down here is enough. Not use to it.
3020. Patrap
Quoting Bordonaro:


It was exciting and I could picture this "Siberian/Arctic Monstrosity" building and freezing out 2/3 of the CONUS, when I first heard about it on 12/27/09. It struck on 1/4/10 with a vengence that I and many others won't forget.

This next storm that will develop on We 1/16 and Th 1/17/10 will be intense. This is that "huge trough" that has literally been parked over the E PAC for 6 weeks, shooting storms up into the Pac NW and right now, British Columbia.

Unfortunately, there is not a "real good way" to gauge it's "true strength" as it has been sitting several hundred miles west of the CA coast. I am more prone to believe this will be a prolific rain/wind event. As Atmoaggie described it, similar to a Sub Tropical Storm.

I am not ready to say, look its the Superstorm of 2010, not yet!! Could it happen, yes.



er..Friday is the 15th,as its my B-day,and Sat is the 16th..

Unless God changed the calender on us Bob.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Is KOG, Orca or someone here who can post an infra-red satallite pic of the Pacific off of CA out several hundred miles?




What are you looking to see?
The only good thing out of this cold spell is my electric bill will be low. (Not counting having to replace a breaker for the heat!)
Quoting tornadodude:


mine says 18 :P

Matt, how was your birthday dinner? Was the chili recipe from TampaSpin good? And who cooked?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Matt, how was your birthday dinner? Was the chili recipe from TampaSpin good? And who cooked?


it was great! I'm actually enjoying the leftovers right now (: my mom cooked it (:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Matt, how was your birthday dinner? Was the chili recipe from TampaSpin good? And who cooked?


White chili... someone should be shot.
Quoting Patrap:



er..Friday is the 15th,as its my B-day,and Sat is the 16th..

Unless God changed the calender on us Bob.


OOOPS!!! We 1-13 and Th 1-14...Fixed my entry..
I missed something...what is white chilli?
Warm Gulf Stream water was still detectable within a few hundred miles of the Pole.
In contrast, Prof Tsonis said, last week 56 per cent of the surface of the United States was covered by snow.

‘That hasn’t happened for several decades,’ he pointed out. ‘It just isn’t true to say this is a blip. We can expect colder winters for quite a while.’


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html# ixzz0cH56NoOG
Quoting Orcasystems:




What are you looking to see?


Orca, if you can, I need a satellite loop..It would be awesome if we had a satellite loop of the NE PAC and C PAC together, to gauge the size of the trough and how it's being fed by the SW Sub-tropical Jet
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I missed something...what is white chilli?


From TampaSpin:

WHITE LIGHTNING CHICKEN CHILI

4 boneless skinless chicken breasts, cubed
2 cans great northern beans, rinsed 1 whole white onion, diced
1 cup frozen white corn
1 yellow bell pepper, diced
1 ½ cups fresh mushrooms, sliced
1 bulb fresh garlic, minced
6 habanera peppers
½ cup white wine
1 can chicken broth
2 tsp. cumin powder
1 tsp. coriander powder
1 tbsp. ground white pepper
3 tbsp. olive oil
1 lime, squeezed for juice
½ cup sour cream
½ cup shredded pepper jack cheese

Heat olive oil in large sauté pan to medium-high heat, and add garlic, onions,
and chicken. Sauté for 10-15 minutes or until chicken is no longer pink.
In a large Dutch oven add chicken broth, cumin, coriander, ground white pepper,
lime juice, habanera peppers (if mild chili is preferred, use fewer hot peppers,
as desired - the quantity given is very hot!), and bring to a boil. Reduce heat
to medium, cover with lid, and let simmer for 10-15 minutes. Add the chicken,
garlic, and onion mixture, plus the corn, beans, yellow bell pepper, mushrooms,
and white wine.

Cover and let simmer for approximately 30-35 minutes.

When finished, remove from heat and stir in the sour cream. Garnish with the
shredded pepper jack cheese, and serve with crusty garlic bread
Quoting Bordonaro:


Orca, if you can, I need a satellite loop..It would be awesome if we had a satellite loop of the NE PAC and C PAC together, to gauge the size of the trough and how it's being fed by the SW Sub-tropical Jet


Your not asking for much are you... what happened to the simple picture.
Quoting tornadodude:


it was great! I'm actually enjoying the leftovers right now (: my mom cooked it (:

I saved the recipe. Sounded good. Of course, if I don't have to cook it, it's automatically delicious!
Quoting Orcasystems:


White chili... someone should be shot.

From the guy who posted the recipe for "Moosemilk"!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


You guys should move up to the Frozen North where we are ;)



Maybe they should have scheduled the Summer Olympics instead.
3036. beell
Quoting weatherbro:


Which model and run says it'll cut-off?


GFS and the Euro for at least 3 days now. Cutting off over N MX or deep S TX.
it was awesome ha
Sounds good. Thanks Matt and Tim.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sounds good. Thanks Matt and Tim.


no problem, it was a great choice for my b-day dinner, along with some whoopie pies (:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your not asking for much are you... what happened to the simple picture.


Patrap posted a link to the Unisys website.

That trough is being fed by a moderately active SW Jet. There is a piece of energy that is getting pulled in from the C PAC.

As this trough stands right now, it's pretty intense already. You know that first hand, because a large chunk of energy is being shot up into BC.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I saved the recipe. Sounded good. Of course, if I don't have to cook it, it's automatically delicious!
From the guy who posted the recipe for "Moosemilk"!!


Moose milk is good for you :)
White Chili is just weird.
I'm not even going to ask what "whoopie pies" are since Mom cooked the dinner (:
The tongue of moisture in the Water Vapor loop near Hawaii, moving towards the US in the Sub-Tropical Jet. The trough extends NW of Hawaii up to the Aluetian Low. This is going to be a NASTY storm...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm not even going to ask what "whoopie pies" are since Mom cooked the dinner (:


whoopie pies

Quoting Bordonaro:


Patrap posted a link to the Unisys website.

That trough is being fed by a moderately active SW Jet. There is a piece of energy that is getting pulled in from the C PAC.

As this trough stands right now, it's pretty intense already. You know that first hand, because a large chunk of energy is being shot up into BC.


NS.. did you see the wind and rainfall warning?
3047. beell
From today's GFS runs at 06Z, 12Z, 18Z and the latest 00Z

All valid Saturday at 06Z




Got it...looks good...see you like the Amish version.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Got it...looks good...see you like the Amish version.


yeah, my family has some good friends that have Amish relatives, so we got the recipe from them
Quoting Orcasystems:


NS.. did you see the wind and rainfall warning?


Yes, I did. There is a large, deep trough, starting near NW Russia, down to N of Hawaii, moving up towards you, around to the NW connected to the Aleutian Low. This is ALOT of potential energy. I can see WHY all the computer models are stating this is a moisture laden storm..
Quoting tornadodude:


whoopie pies



UMMMM!!!! Home made Devil Dogs!!!!!
Its 30 and falling in Navarre (Florida Panhandle near Pensacola)...I am now making solar collectors to heat the house. I don't even want to see the next gas bill...forecast for 60 degrees or slightly better next Sat...give me a Banana Wind any time...
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yes, I did. There is a large, deep trough, starting near NW Russia, down to N of Hawaii, moving up towards you, around to the NW connected to the Aleutian Low. This is ALOT of potential energy. I can see WHY all the computer models are stating this is a moisture laden storm..


Pineapple Express Route
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm not even going to ask what "whoopie pies" are since Mom cooked the dinner (:

If I get banned for this, you're coming with!!
(Article has a beautiful pic, btw.)

The New York Times
March 18, 2009
By MICHELINE MAYNARD
Whoopie! Cookie, Pie or Cake, It's Having Its Moment

FOR generations, vacationers in Maine and visitors to Pennsylvania’s Amish country have found a simple black and white snack in restaurants and convenience shops and on nearly every gas station counter: whoopie pies.

They were found in other pockets of the country, too, from New England to Ohio. But in most of the United States, people could be forgiven for not knowing that the whoopie pie is not, in fact, a pie at all. (It is sometimes described as a cookie, but that is not quite right, either. The closest description may be a cake-like sandwich, or perhaps a sandwich-like cake.)

Now whoopie pies are migrating across the country, often appearing in the same specialty shops and grocery aisles that recently made room for cupcakes. Last fall, they even cracked the lineup at Magnolia Bakery in Manhattan, which helped turn cupcakes into a national craze thanks to the bakery’s exposure on “Sex and the City.” Under the name “sweetie pies,” heart-shaped whoopie pies showed up in the February catalog from Williams-Sonoma. Baked in Maine with local butter and organic eggs, they sell for $49 a dozen.

In their traditional round form, whoopie pies can be found at Trader Joe’s supermarkets, at Whole Foods in Manhattan and at small bakeries like Kim’s Kitchen in Evanston, Ill., outside Chicago.
(story continues...)
A portion of the
Area Forecast discussion
NWS San Francisco/Monterey, CA
Sunday Jan 10, 2010 @ 7:45PM PST

I do not like the sound of this at all:

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEK WITH A STRONG MID
TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RECENTLY THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT EVEN STRONGER JET DYNAMICS
WITH AN EVEN WETTER STORM ARRIVING ABOUT 9 OR 10 DAYS OUT FROM NOW...
ARRIVING EITHER VERY LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECENT 6-
10 DAY 500 MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC HAVE SHOWN AN ONGOING
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH RECENTLY
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY
AS THE JET SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

Can you remember the wild Pac Storms is the REAL bad El Nino years, we may see a REPEAT!!!


"Met just said "Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Really, that's what he said."

I can beat that. I saw a forecast for Cookeville, TN (where I live) last week that said, and I quote, "Mostly Cloudy. Not as cold. Lows around 11." Not as cold as what? Apparently not Alaska... Maybe not as cold as, say, liquid nitrogen.

We have been below freezing for highs for 10 straight days now in the middle of Tennessee. Ridiculous. There is, however, a chance of us getting slightly above freezing tomorrow afternoon, though only by a few degrees. It's currently between 12 and 13 degrees F here.
Now I feel like making a Whoopie Pie but it's almost midnight here. Guess I have to make Whoopie tomorrow.
Quoting vbscript2:
"Met just said "Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Really, that's what he said."

I can beat that. I saw a forecast for Cookeville, TN (where I live) last week that said, and I quote, "Mostly Cloudy. Not as cold. Lows around 11." Not as cold as what? Apparently not Alaska... Maybe not as cold as, say, liquid nitrogen.

We have been below freezing for highs for 10 straight days now in the middle of Tennessee. Ridiculous. There is, however, a chance of us getting slightly above freezing tomorrow afternoon, though only by a few degrees. It's currently between 12 and 13 degrees F here.


My daughter lives in Nashville, TN, she said this weather pattern is brutal. By Th of this week, you should be near 40F!
Quoting Bordonaro:
A portion of the
Area Forecast discussion
NWS San Francisco/Monterey, CA
Sunday Jan 10, 2010 @ 7:45PM PST

I do not like the sound of this at all:

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEK WITH A STRONG MID
TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RECENTLY THE ECMWF HAS BEEN HINTING AT EVEN STRONGER JET DYNAMICS
WITH AN EVEN WETTER STORM ARRIVING ABOUT 9 OR 10 DAYS OUT FROM NOW...
ARRIVING EITHER VERY LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECENT 6-
10 DAY 500 MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY OUTLOOKS FROM CPC HAVE SHOWN AN ONGOING
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH RECENTLY
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY
AS THE JET SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

Can you remember the wild Pac Storms is the REAL bad El Nino years, we may see a REPEAT!!!




Is this the same as the N GOM storm?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Now I feel like making a Whoopie Pie but it's almost midnight here. Guess I have to make Whoopie tomorrow.


:p
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pineapple Express Route


Ah, yes! California into British Columbia, hang on, it's gonna get "wicked"!!!
This may sound really random, but does anyone know where I can get surface and upper air charts from December 1991???
Quoting vbscript2:
"Met just said "Warm up on the way, along with a chance of some snow." Really, that's what he said."

I can beat that. I saw a forecast for Cookeville, TN (where I live) last week that said, and I quote, "Mostly Cloudy. Not as cold. Lows around 11." Not as cold as what? Apparently not Alaska... Maybe not as cold as, say, liquid nitrogen.

We have been below freezing for highs for 10 straight days now in the middle of Tennessee. Ridiculous. There is, however, a chance of us getting slightly above freezing tomorrow afternoon, though only by a few degrees. It's currently between 12 and 13 degrees F here.

LOL! I worked in TV in a previous life. "Talent" will read whatever's on their teleprompter copy...only a few pros check their copy beforehand. It would have been fun to do a couple of them in...if only we weren't worried about losing our own jobs.

And the chyron operator (graphics or character generator) is only human and can make typos. What I can't believe is when they leave them up and they aren't corrected, or they're repeated!

Anyway, was it really 11 degrees???
Quoting ElConando:


Is this the same as the N GOM storm?


The first piece of energy from CA (their TU/WE rainstorm) creates the cut off L. There is a whole "poop-load" of energy in the Central Pacific behind the first one.

Hit parade of storms are possible!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Now I feel like making a Whoopie Pie but it's almost midnight here. Guess I have to make Whoopie tomorrow.


You're a bad man.
Lucky...funny...but bad.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Orca, if you can, I need a satellite loop..It would be awesome if we had a satellite loop of the NE PAC and C PAC together, to gauge the size of the trough and how it's being fed by the SW Sub-tropical Jet
whoopie pie looks like a creamer version of oreo cakesters
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That is one big mamma jamma.
alright, time for me to head to bed :P have a great night everyone, will try to get on in the morning, if not i'll be here in the afternoon, later! (:
KOG!! Hey thanks for that!!

A portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX from 3:05PM CST today:

...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
BECOME DIFFLUENT OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS MEXICO. THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH
TEXAS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH ONE INCH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTH TEXAS. SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM MOVES AS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS.
Quoting ElConando:


That is one big mamma jamma.


See the WV (water vapor loop) #3044 to get an idea how BIG the trough is!!!
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This may sound really random, but does anyone know where I can get surface and upper air charts from December 1991???


You can e-mail the NWS office in Houston, TX, they may be able to give you a hand, or even give their office a call. This system is going to be "wicked", and this is probable one of several bad storms for the Southern CONUS over the next 2 weeks!!!Link below is for upper air soundings, goes back to 1981.

Link
Was the 93 Superstorm a cut-off low?
Noooooooooooooooooo flooding, pls!

I'm going to sleep, too, after I leave a birthday message for AtmoAggie on his blog. So many birthdays this month.
Goodnight, all.

here's a better shot
3075. No, it was driven by the Jet and it was BAD!!!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


You're a bad man.
Lucky...funny...but bad.


I can't find any whoopie pies in Florida. Does anybody know of any store that sells 'em in Orlando?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Noooooooooooooooooo flooding, pls!

I'm going to sleep, too, after I leave a birthday message for AtmoAggie on his blog. So many birthdays this month.
Goodnight, all.



AIM, no worries, it's WAY too early to determine where this storm goes after SA 1-16-10.
Why do a few of the models think this'll cut-off?
Temp at 10:53 was 20 and now its 24 as of 11:53. Winds reported as still calm. Wonder what gives.
Quoting ElConando:
Temp at 10:53 was 20 and now its 24 as of 11:53. Winds reported as still calm. Wonder what gives.
rtn flow
Quoting weatherbro:


I can't find any whoopie pies in Florida. Does anybody know of any store that sells 'em in Orlando?

The NY Times article said that one of the Whole Foods in NY sold them. You could check yours, if you like.
But actually, Devil Dogs are similar...I'm sure there's other copycats :)

Orlando Whole Foods Market
8003 Turkey Lake Road
Orlando, FL 32819 USA
Phone 407.355.7100

Okay, good night again.
And thanks, Mr. B -- all this too shall pass!
3085. jipmg
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rtn flow


Rtn flow?
Forecast Discussion from Tallahassee:

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN.
THE 00 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS...ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
LARGE SCALE COLD WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS AFFECTED THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS THE PAST FEW WEEKS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE THE
TROPOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS MEANS OUR WARMUP WILL ALSO BE SLOW...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOT REACHING THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS UNTIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
LIGHT WINDS...AND LONG NIGHTS...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZES (AT OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
INLAND SITES) THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LARGE AND VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING INCREASING TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES...AND WINDS TO OUR
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR TALLAHASSEE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE OVER LA. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...THE
WARM SECTOR (AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) WOULD LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND NOT OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL OF EL NINO SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WE EXPECT PLENTY
OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM UNLESS THE FORECAST DEVELOPS MUCH
DIFFERENTLY (AS IT STILL CAN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME). THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
Quoting jipmg:


Rtn flow?


rtn means return so, return flow.
As the world's largest private oil company, ExxonMobil has the power to direct the energy industry and policy makers toward a cleaner, more secure energy future. Instead, it is using its wealth and power to take America backwards. WHY EXXONMOBIL?
http://www.exxposeexxon.com/
Quoting ElConando:
Temp at 10:53 was 20 and now its 24 as of 11:53. Winds reported as still calm. Wonder what gives.


Happened here in DFW, TX on Sa morning. The winds were light temps went down to 18F, went up to 21F for a couple hrs, then settles at 13F at 7am.

The air is not homogenious. In English, the air is not exactly the same, even in an airmass, believe it or not. If the reading is near an airport, it's possible a patch of slightly milder air ( a few degrees warmer than the surrounding air) is near the thermometer. The trend after an hour of so should be towards dropping temps..
Basically the forecast for now its for the severe stuff to for the most part miss the panhandle and hit the peninsula. Way to early to tell if that will hold true or now.
3086. POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT..Whenever they mention the triple-point Low, IF you are in the warm sector, near the main Low and cold front, watch for severe weather. My guess is there may be the possibility of straight line winds possible, up to 60MPH and possible tornadoes, due to the wind shear.
3092. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1135 PM CST sun Jan 10 2010


Aviation...
winds will be mostly calm to light and variable through the rest
of the night then become west to southwesterly around 5 kts from middle
morning through the afternoon. Sky clear and VFR will prevail at all
terminals.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 723 PM CST sun Jan 10 2010/


Update...
.Sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this evening. The sounding is not very
different than 24 hours ago. With the main core of the high
settling over the area...extremely dry and stable conditions are
prevailing. Winds are out of the north from the surface to around
300 mb where they shift to the west.


98/so


Previous discussion... /issued 407 PM CST sun Jan 10 2010/


Short term...
coldest night of the season expected tonight...
core of Arctic airmass will descend upon US tonight as surface
high pressure area becomes centered over the forecast area. Low
temperatures in the teens are expected over most of the forecast
area except lower to middle 20s are expected right near the South
Shore of Lake Pontchartrain...Lake Borgne...and coastal southeast
Louisiana due to the prevailing light north to northeast winds
passing across bays. This will be another long duration hard
freeze similar in hours duration as last night. The only thing
that will help is the lack of wind that will keep the wind chill
indices mostly above advisory criteria. The record lows tomorrow
morning are very low from 1962 and 1982...and are unlikely to be
threatened.


Another sharp shortwave trough...with a reinforcement of high
pressure will move south into the lower Mississippi Valley late
Monday through Tuesday. Fortunately for US...this Arctic air will
be modifying significantly due to a substantial upper ridge moving
east across the central U.S. Still...even with highs near 50 on
Monday...the still dry airmass...clear skies...and cold air
advection will cause lows Monday night to drop below freezing once
again...a light freeze on the South Shore of Lake
Pontchartrain...and another hard freeze west and north of Lake
Pontchartrain into south Mississippi. Fortunately...it will not be
nearly as cold as tonight. Sunshine will allow highs to climb a
bit higher in the 50s on Tuesday. The surface high will settle
into the forecast area again Tuesday night resulting in yet
another freeze over most areas.


Long term...
the warming trend will continue...and freezing temperatures are
not expected Thursday through Saturday. The main forecast issue
will be strong upper level and surface low pressure system that
will move through the western and central Gulf Coast region Friday
through Saturday night. This still appears to be mainly a heavy
rain event at this time...with inadequate instability for severe
weather and not enough cold air and moisture on the back side for
winter weather over our area. Still...the European model (ecmwf) has for a few days
now been showing very heavy rainfall amounts on the order of 2 to
3 plus inches with a majority of this falling Friday night into
early Saturday. The ground is still likely to be cold during this
heavy rain...so the threat of minor flooding will enhanced by the
grounds inability to soak up much water. Will continue to monitor
this system as it gets closer in time. 22/dew point


Aviation...
VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals. 35


Marine...
strong surface ridging will remain in control through
Wednesday...with winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet
expected. Heading into the end of the week...conditions are
expected to deteriorate again...as a strong Gulf low takes shape
over the western Gulf of Mexico. This low should bring small craft
conditions back to the coastal waters Thursday night and Friday.
Depending on the exact track of the surface low...gale warnings may
be necessary next weekend.
35


&&
Quoting ElConando:
Basically the forecast for now its for the severe stuff to for the most part miss the panhandle and hit the peninsula. Way to early to tell if that will hold true or now.


Believe me, you don't want to be in the threat area this time.
Why do a few of the models think this'll cut-off?
3095. Patrap
As a rule to consider..when the NWS NOLA Marine Discussion hints of a Gale Warning 5 days out,its best to stay abreast of the forecast packages as time goes by.


Their group is a very skilled bunch with a lotta decades of Experience in these type Systems.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
As the world's largest private oil company, ExxonMobil has the power to direct the energy industry and policy makers toward a cleaner, more secure energy future. Instead, it is using its wealth and power to take America backwards. WHY EXXONMOBIL?
http://www.exxposeexxon.com/


I'll forward this to my new world order friends...

And btw Petro China is a bigger producer and thats a mere drop in the bucket compared to the Arabian Countries.
Link
Quoting Patrap:
As a rule to consider..when the NWS NOLA Marine Discussion hints of a Gale Warning 5 days out,its best to stay abreast of the forecast packages as time goes by.


Their group is a very skilled bunch with a lotta decades of Experience in these type Systems.


Is that also why you were saying Tuesday is an important day?
3094. The trough is going to dig deep south-ward into Northern Mexico. Then the the Main Flow (the SW Jet) will temporarily leave it behind, then it will be picked up again by the Mid level winds, move up the East Coast. Look at 1900hurricane's blog and read the comment from the Houston Weather Examiner, he will give you his prognosis. I do believe he is a meteorologist (article's author) and 1900hurricanes a meteorology student!!
LINK BELOW:
Link
3099. Patrap
Quoting ElConando:


Is that also why you were saying Tuesday is an important day?


Yes El,the 48-72 Guidance is usually a good bet.

Im uploading a new GFS package and will post it shortly
I'll check em' out. What do they call Ring Dings down here then?
3102. Patrap


THIS ONE OUT TO 120 HRS
3104. Patrap
Thats a pretty significant run to the east in track
Quoting Patrap:


That run puts the severe stuff right on top of me.
3106. Patrap
My former neighbor just arrived in from Mali,Africa via Paris,and Amsterdam and were enjoying a nice conversation about Airport Security in those Countries.
Man the guy was stuck in Holland for day..

Lucky..Dude

And a Guy came out the Bathroom on the Amsterdam to D.C. trans-Atlantic leg today Buck naked out the Head and two US Air Marshall's tackled the Guy.

Wowsa,..wonder if that will make the CNN Headline.

We Dog-sat his Terrier for 3 weeks.

Never a Dull Moment here seems.
Quoting Patrap:
My former neighbor just arrived in from Mali,Africa via Paris,and Amsterdam and were enjoying a nice conversation about Airport Security in those Countries.
Man the guy was stuck in Holland for day..

Lucky..Dude

And a Guy came out the Bathroom on the Amsterdam to D.C. trans-Atlantic leg today Buck naked out the Head and two US Air Marshall's tackled the Guy.

Wowsa,..wonder if that will make the CNN Headline.

We Dog-sat his Terrier for 3 weeks.

Never a Dull Moment here seems.


I hope he had a DAM good time.

I'm out...
Have a good night folks, will be back later today!!
3109. Motttt
Sounds like fun
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 3:28 AM CST on January 11, 2010
18 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 6 °F
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 12 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 29.97 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 4200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4900 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft



Very unusual for Cayman. This is cold for us.
3114. IKE
I'm at 22.1....morning low and low for the year.
3115. IKE
Make that 21.7 my morning low.
3116. code1
27.6 here Ike. Bet you get down to 20 or below in an hour or so.
3117. IKE
Quoting code1:
27.6 here Ike. Bet you get down to 20 or below in an hour or so.


If I weren't surrounded by 2 lakes I probably would.

PWS in downtown DFS,FL.....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
17.5 °F

Clear
Windchill: 18 °F
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 15 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.44 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
3118. code1
Just looked at C'view, 20.3 there. I am sooo over this!
3119. IKE
wow!

Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 11 min 27 sec ago
Clear
13 °F

Clear
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 11 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.53 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
3120. Keys99
Record Cold In Key West. It is Officially cold here. From the 01/11/10 Am Discussion

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST AIRPORT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO 42
DEGREES AS OF 5 AM. THIS SMASHES THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD LOW OF 48
DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1970. ONLY TWO LOWER TEMPERATURES HAVE EVER
BEEN RECORDED IN KEY WEST...WHICH ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS OF 41
DEGREES ON JANUARY 13 1981 AND JANUARY 12 1886. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873. WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS YET TO GO
BEFORE SUNRISE...THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR FURTHER COOLING TO
OCCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS VERY CLOSELY.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT KEY WEST HAS NOW SEEN FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW 50 DEGREES (JANUARY 7TH-11TH). THIS IS THE
SECOND LONGEST SUCH STREAK RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THE LONGEST STREAK OF
DAYS WITH LOW TEMPS BELOW 50 DEGREES OCCURRED DECEMBER 1-6 1876. WE
WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO TIE THAT RECORD STREAK EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...WHEN THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
BELOW 50 DEGREES.

ONE MORE CLIMATE NOTE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 52 DEGREES OBSERVED
AT KEY WEST ON JANUARY 10TH WAS THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED
HERE IN ALMOST 70 YEARS...SINCE JANUARY 28 1940...WHEN THE HIGH TEMP
WAS ALSO JUST 52 DEGREES. ONLY TWO COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
EVER BEEN RECORDED IN KEY WEST...51 DEGREES ON JANUARY 26 1905...AND
THE ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMP OF 48 DEGREES ON DECEMBER 29 1894.
3121. IKE
Quoting code1:
Just looked at C'view, 20.3 there. I am sooo over this!


LOL....you ready for spring?

My next door neighbor has been putting sheets on top of her 2 foot tall plants. Next morning half of the sheets are on the ground.

She was bitching about how tired of cold weather she was.
3122. code1
Past ready! That airport reading is always far lower than surrounding PWS readings. By looking though, some are pretty close to that. Ice box of FL.
3123. IKE
My lows for 2010.....excluding January 1st.

January 2nd......32
January 3rd......27.9
January 4th......28.0
January 5th......22.9
January 6th......22.3
January 7th......28.6
January 8th......26.8
January 9th......23.9
January 10th.....22.6
January 11th.....21.7(so far).
3124. code1
The Keys is that cold? The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

Morning all, Missed the all time record for z-hills by 1 tenth of a degree.
3126. IKE
Record Report

Statement as of 12:30 am CST on January 11, 2010

... Mobile tied for the 2nd longest streak for consecutive days of
minimum temperatures below 32 degrees...

... The 2nd longest streak of consecutive minimum temperatures below
32 degrees set in Pensacola...


This morning will mark the 9th day in a row that the minimum
temperature fell below 32 degrees in Mobile. The record number of
consecutive days at Mobile that the minimum temperature fell below 32
degrees is 15 which was set back in February 1940. The second longest
streak stands at 9 days which occurred previously in January 2001 and
December 1901. Below freezing minimum temperatures are possible the
next few mornings which could set a new 2nd longest streak for
consecutive minimum temperatures below 32 degrees.


This morning will mark the 8th day in a row that the minimum
temperature fell below 32 degrees in Pensacola. The record number
of consecutive days at Pensacola that the minimum temperature fell
below 32 degrees is 11 which was set back in January 1940. The
previous second longest streak was 7 days which occurred in January
2001... December 1963 and February 1958. Below freezing minimum
temperatures are possible for the next couple of mornings which
could further extend this record.

04/kc
3128. aquak9
this is ridiculous.

I looked at temps all over Florida.

Please let this be done.

Posting these kinda temps oughtta be a bannable offense.
3129. IKE
People can look back on this blog in 50 years and be stunned at how cold it got.
3130. aquak9
I wonder if folks thought like that, many years ago, when they wrote down weather oddities in books.

Wonder if they thought about us in the future, going "wow" at their readings.

Past, present, future- weather connects us all.
3131. Keys99
Quoting IKE:
People can look back on this blog in 50 years and be stunned at how cold it got.


OR maybe they can look back and see how warm it use to get. lol
3132. IKE
I'm sure they did.

21.6 my low. My heater hasn't cut off since I woke up an hour ago.
Coldest morning for me so far, glad I covered the tomatoes. Almost did not do it since last three times it never got to freezing.

10:53 32.0
9:53 26.1
8:53 28.9
7:53 33.1


Dipped below 30 deg for a few hours
3134. spathy
Ft Myers Fl below 32 from midnight on!!!
Now 30 insanity I tell you!
3135. IKE
21.4...
3136. code1
I, for one, hope those records stay. Don't wish to break that kind.
3137. IKE
Quoting code1:
I, for one, hope those records stay. Don't wish to break that kind.


This has almost got to be the coldest morning. Should start to get warmer, starting today...upper 40's here seems warm.
3138. spathy
Florida Power and light setting usage records.
Outages all over the place.
3139. code1
Not the coldest here. Sat. morning was I believe.
Funny to even think of upper 40's being warm. Snowbirds will be out of their wind jackets today, and back in short sleeves. LOL
3140. Keys99
IT is supposed to get back to 70 on Thursday here. Cool first half of the week ahead, still for the state
3142. RJY
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html

It's funny how these "SO CALLED" scientists continue to hold on to the whole "human caused global warming" mess. I guess it depends on what you allow yourself to believe. Assumptions based on assumptions based on models that are based on assumptions. That doesn't work for me.

Personally, I believe that they even know it's total BS but they can't get their pockets lined by over-reacting politicians who think they actually know something about science which are nothing more than meatheads.

Where are you now Gore?
3143. IKE
From Accuweather....

Some Relief in Sight for Frozen Southeast
1/11/2010 3:45 AM
Arctic air engulfed the eastern half of the nation the past week, sending temperatures on a nosedive as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures dropped below freezing on

Arctic air engulfed the eastern half of the nation the past week, sending temperatures on a nosedive as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures dropped below freezing once again in Florida this morning, with a hard freeze threatening crops across a vast portion of the Sunshine State.

This past weekend alone, dozens of cold temperature records were broken or tied in Florida. Records were shattered in cities and towns including Tampa, Sarasota, Apalachicola, Key West and Orlando.

So far, citrus-growers in Florida have gotten by with only light damage following several nights with subfreezing temperatures. However, temperatures into this morning dropped below 28 degrees, a critical temperature for the fruit, for an extended period of time across a large portion of the state.

According to AccuWeather.com Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, the hard freeze into this morning could be the worst the area has seen since 1989. Mohler expects a 6 to 10 percent loss of the total 2009 orange crop after this morning's freeze.

Fortunately, the worst of the cold should be past for Floridians. Temperatures will begin to rebound a bit across the Southeast today, but the unusual cold will not be completely erased until later this week.

In the meantime, overnight temperatures will still drop below freezing throughout the region, which could threaten the sugarcane crop in southern Louisiana. The harvest has already been set behind schedule due to record rainfall last fall into December.

To add insult to injury, more heavy rain could threaten the Gulf Coast later this week into the weekend as a storm system meanders eastward along the coast. This could delay harvest dates even more in southern Louisiana, home to roughly 40 percent of the nation's sugarcane crop.

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Heather Buchman contributed to the content of this story.
no freeze here 41 in the shade oh its dark still e cen florida
3145. code1
WEAR3 TV just reported 10 days of record cold in P'cola. Haven't seen that since 1950. Wow.
Gulf Power has been pretty good at keeping outages at a minimum around here. We are not nearly as populated as what FPL services though.
3146. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
no freeze here 41 in the shade oh its dark still e cen florida


Your thermometer must be in an oven.
3147. aquak9
well well well, looked who showed up.

HELLO spathy.

code- aw heck I'm outta words, just too cold.

g'morning everyone else.
had to go outside this morning 40 is definitely more comfortable than yesterdays 30
3149. IKE
21.0 morning and yearly low.
3150. aquak9
23º here in Jax coastal.
3151. spathy
Post#3145

2008 lowest #s of sun spots since the 1950s.
Its the sun folks!

Ok here ya go we broke the coldest temp in z-hills fl was 19.3
3153. code1
Just saw that when I looked at rain's station aqua. sheesh
3154. code1
Quoting spathy:
Post#3145

2008 lowest #s of sun spots since the 1950s.
Its the sun folks!


huh???
3155. IKE
Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 4 min 15 sec ago
Clear
12 °F

Clear
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 10 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.54 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
3156. spathy
Morning Aqua.
23 should freeze that Broccoli.
3157. aquak9
ya'll stay warm...or at least try too.
3158. IKE
Tallahassee, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 18 sec ago
Clear
14 °F

Clear
Windchill: 14 °F
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 11 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.50 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 79 ft
3159. IKE
20.8 here now...I might make 20.0.
Cold here too! My electricity keeps going on and off. As soon as the heat tries to kick back on the power goes off for a couple of seconds. I think our power system has hit its limit with this cold.

East of downtown Tampa

Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 46 min 43 sec ago
Clear
21 °F
Clear
Windchill: 21 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: Calm
3162. code1
Hey doda! Hope it stays on for you. That would be horrible!

Will I get a cookie if it does Ike? LOL
3163. code1
Just too cold Rays!
Code-Even to cold by my standards. Time for it to go back where it belongs.
3165. IKE
Quoting code1:
Hey doda! Hope it stays on for you. That would be horrible!

Will I get a cookie if it does Ike? LOL


Yeah...chocolate chip.

Down to 20.5.
Question: does the freeze kill the entire citrus tree...or just the fruit?
Quoting code1:
Hey doda! Hope it stays on for you. That would be horrible!

Will I get a cookie if it does Ike? LOL


Thanks Rays! Gonna be difficult getting ready for work with the water and lights goin on and off.
good morning all

3169. IKE
It's so cold in Milton,FL., their temp gauge bit the dust....

Milton, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 25 min 40 sec ago
Clear
-
Clear
Wind: 4 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 30.52 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 177 ft
3170. code1
Rays doda? I think that squawk guy has overtaken your eyesight this morning!

They don't live right over there Ike. haha
3171. IKE
Sun is coming up....

3172. IKE
Quoting presslord:
Question: does the freeze kill the entire citrus tree...or just the fruit?


Think it's just the fruit.
Quoting IKE:


Think it's just the fruit.


Can also kill off the tree if cold enough long enough.

Freeze Damage
hhhmmm...killing the fruit is bad...killing the tree would be catastrophic...
dont jump the gun on the freeze damage it will take a few wks to see how the crops react
Press- It's just the crops.
Kumquats are a total loss.
We've dropped another
Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 19 min 21 sec ago
Clear
19 °F
Clear
Windchill: 19 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 18 °F
Wind: Calm
Quoting code1:
Rays doda? I think that squawk guy has overtaken your eyesight this morning!

They don't live right over there Ike. haha


Eyesight is fine, it is really me. LOL
3179. IKE
20.5 my low.

Sun is shining brightly now...warmer weather ahead!
Ok guys I'm at work in Tampa and we have a pond out back and there is ice covering 1/2 of the pond crazy.
I beg to differ on the crop thing, I was here for the hard freezes in the 80's that wiped out the big orange groves in Marion and Lake county. It only took 3 days of hard freeze for that. I think this is day 5 or 6. The only difference is that it was much windier then.
Oh, and the trees are further south now.
P.S. it can also kill the fruit producing part of the tree above the graft, and what grows back is sour orange stock. :-(
But hopefully the trees have been ice protected, smudge pot heated, or something.
Hey biff, i agree with you on the freeze. Last year my orange tree got hit hard and the fruit this year was smaller and really sour.
I In Longwood, FL. I hit a low of 29 but 15 or so miles from me it was 10 degrees colder. I have a springs (Rock Springs and Wekiva Springs) near me so I believe that is what kept my temp up a little.
3185. IKE
Record Report

Statement as of 7:21 am EST on January 11, 2010

... Record low temperature set at West Palm Beach...

a record low temperature of 33 degrees was set at West Palm Beach today.
This breaks the old record of 34 set in 1927.
jeff9641, weather still looking ugly this weekend
3187. IKE
Record Report

Statement as of 8:04 am EST on January 11, 2010

... Record low temperature set at Tallahassee...

A record low temperature of 14 degrees was set at Tallahassee this
morning. This breaks the previous record of 15 degrees set in 1982.
Want to report from Oakland Park. Widespread frost throughout Broward County this morning, mostly west of I-95 and especially west of the Turnpike. At my house the morning low was 31.2 degrees F. Frost covered all the cars in the parking lots and due to the spriklers coming on in the complex I live in automatically at 4 AM, a very crunchy lawn and icicles hanging from plants, cars, even the pavement froze over in spots. I love the cold, but I think 11 days of this is quite enough. Looking forward to the weekend when we should approach 80. Oh to be able to walk my dog in the morning in shorts, tank top and flip flops again..
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 4 sec ago
35.0 °F
Clear
Windchill: 35 °F
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 2.0 mphfrom the WNW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 30.44 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft
Source for Current Conditions:
PWS & Airport Airport Only
The coldest it was today is 31.0 degrees between 7:20 and 7:40 this a.m. Looking for a heating trend to continue though me and the cat have never been so close!
Bob's P.C. Connection, Kodiak, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 8 sec ago
34.7 F
Overcast
Windchill: 30 F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 30 F
Wind: 3.6 mphfrom the East
Wind Gust: 10.5 mph
Pressure: 28.70 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2600 ft
Overcast 3100 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 84 ft
Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal (PADQ) 35 F 25 F
Record (PADQ) 45 F (1984) 6 F (1972)
Yesterday 43 F 41 F

Have a great day everyone.
Quoting severstorm:
jeff9641, weather still looking ugly this weekend


Yeah, we should recieve a lot of rain and maybe a moderate risk for severe weather for C FL on Sat. as temps get up near 80.
3193. IKE
6Z GFS @ 120 hours...

The North Atlantic Oscillation is merely an approximate and inaccurate description of changes noted over the zone during years
It is not a physical phenomenon explainable in science.

It is a Consequence of Russian European blocking highs which affect us at date
In association with north USA and Canada Rocky Mountain Arctic shifts of air, depending on how low pressure is from heat in the Caribbean and North Africa which allows cold dense air to drift south into the Mediterranean, forming winter rains.
The Jet stream is more complex and may be more effective and at this time the jet has taken air south,
So much so we had the US cold weather complex in a line across to the south North Atlantic bringing US snow to Europe south, which then curved back across Europe and brought cold snow air in from the north east upon us. North Africa has been very hot, so it would better to say the US weather on the East coast and offshore has been controlled by Africa and European has been controlled by Africa and Russian winter which is very deep cold, but then of course if you go that far across, the north Russian is the same as the Canadian Arctic and Alaska. The Japan China events have also been interesting. Mathematicians !! when will they do some physics?
This gives the air time to absorb moisture on Atlantic crossing and pick up Sahara dust for nuclei to form particles : ideal. Korea days and the same as snow in Israel presumed at the time of Jesus birth, from limited descriptions of shelter need. We seem to be moving back toward more normal weather on the 60 year shifts noted in rain data and Africa is receiving more rain which is needs to collect in reservoirs and start soil conservation to save its people. This drift and high pressure system in 1982 following cold resulted in drought dry wind state in England that took all the leaves off the trees by August, rattling dry, this would be common and the question is, will it again, while SW USA of course is heat and drought affected with scrub fires, partly enhanced by barbecue populations. Usual life again.
Excerpts from the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST
LATE THIS WEEK...

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD BE MORE POTENT.

A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 3-5 SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST/DEEPENS NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST...PRECIPITATION COULD START AND END AS FROZEN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.


The biggest concern across the country the next few weeks will be the potential for flooding from Southern California to Florida. a very active southern branch is looming as El-Nino rears itself into high gear. I have a feeling there could be a devasting severe weather outbreak across FL on Sat. Storm looks to familiar to those of 1998 El-Nino. Gulf storms mean severe weather for Florida especially during El-Nino.
The last big tornado outbreak occured in C FL 2/2/07 during an el-nino year so this is our time to get tornadoes here and deadly ones at that.
Quoting IKE:
Record Report

Statement as of 8:04 am EST on January 11, 2010

... Record low temperature set at Tallahassee...

A record low temperature of 14 degrees was set at Tallahassee this
morning. This breaks the previous record of 15 degrees set in 1982.


Finally a record was broken lol. Missed tieing records 2 other days by 1 degree.
Bitterly cold last night went out in 24 degree weather cuz I was really hungry and ate subway. Then I went to a circle k for chapstick which they ran out of... Have to venture off of campus to get some I guess.
Quoting Chicklit:
Bob's P.C. Connection, Kodiak, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 8 sec ago
34.7 �F
Overcast
Windchill: 30 �F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 30 �F
Wind: 3.6 mphfrom the East
Wind Gust: 10.5 mph
Pressure: 28.70 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2600 ft
Overcast 3100 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 84 ft
Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal (PADQ) 35 �F 25 �F
Record (PADQ) 45 �F (1984) 6 �F (1972)
Yesterday 43 �F 41 �F

Have a great day everyone.


that is really low pressure
Quoting presslord:
Question: does the freeze kill the entire citrus tree...or just the fruit?


Damages the inside of the fruit.
probally got down to 35 today ice on the beaches yesterday e cent florida
Good Morning all... 1:40am and still toasty warm, I am going to have fun trying to get to sleep tonight.
I miss Dr. Masters.
3205. IKE
Quoting lickitysplit:
I miss Dr. Masters.


?

32 degrees in St. Petersburg, FL. Had a thick layer of Ice in the back on my truck this morning from the sprinkler system.

Lots of reports coming in about little ponds or standing water being frozen with thin coat of ice.
I'm ready for a new Dr. Master's post. No offense to you guys but...
Quoting lickitysplit:
I miss Dr. Masters.

It's only been 4 days since this Blog was started. maybe his PC has frozen.
Quoting lickitysplit:
I'm ready for a new Dr. Master's post. No offense to you guys but...


do you update your blog often?
we've had below freezing low temps since jan 2. And predicted to have below freezing low temps through wed night. Fri and Sat are gonna be nice lows in my mid 40s mmmmm.
Quoting tornadodude:


do you update your blog often?

I haven't been to my blog for ages... might go now
Re:3209

Nah. I'm just here to read Dr. Masters.

Maybe his PC did freeze. Unless he was in Greenland where its in the 40s!
Quoting lickitysplit:
Re:3209

Nah. I'm just here to read Dr. Masters.

Maybe his PC did freeze. Unless he was in Greenland where its in the 40s!


oh ok, I was gonna say you could work on your blog if you were getting bored, just a suggestion :p
Just making sure is the N gulf storm still shown as nasty on the models?
Quoting AussieStorm:

I haven't been to my blog for ages... might go now

Yep, my blog is still there, and still automatically updating. Gotta love technology,
I run out of ideas for my blog :p

Icicles that formed from the sleet in Orlando on Saturday!

Icicle on a leaf that formed from the sleet in Orlando on Saturday

More mini icicles from the sleet in Orlando on Saturday
Warming up fast here after bottoming out at 14 F:

Quoting presslord:
hhhmmm...killing the fruit is bad...killing the tree would be catastrophic...


we had a couple days of freezing here about a month ago. for one day we did not cover our lemon trees. it made the fruit pull away from the peel on the inside and there was no juice left in the fruit. even though it takes them awhile to figure out if the crops are damage, i would have to say that they are probably damaged for this this season. grandpa has a citrus orchard in so. california and when it freezes if they don't run those smut pot things their crops are toast for that season. JMO
Happy birthday Atmo!
3201. StormChaser81 2:39 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Question: does the freeze kill the entire citrus tree...or just the fruit?


Damages the inside of the fruit.


Even worse is that it kills the buds for the next crop.
I'll be back later guys, time for math :P

loved my Communications class tho!
Quoting ElConando:
Just making sure is the N gulf storm still shown as nasty on the models?

The latest GFS run keeps it offshore until FWB, which the models having been trending to.

This could keep the severe threat to a minimum...that and a lack of surface warmth.

And it isn't as deep in the models as before. We used to have solutions of a sub-1000 mb low, now closer to 1005mb. Still will have rain, near-TS force winds, and the scattered T-storm, but will be a far cry from a 998 mb low tracking along, but just inland or, the GoM coastline.

We will know there is a solid low, but likely not a damaging system for a lot of folks.

SPC recognizes a threat will exist, but not all that impressed, either.

...
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY LINGERS CONCERNING THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AND THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE. ENOUGH INDICATIONS ARE PRESENT TO SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...THIS COMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOT LIKELY TO COMMENCE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.../POTENTIAL TOO LOW/ CATEGORIZATION FOR THE RISK OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BEING MAINTAINED.
Quoting tornadodude:
Happy birthday Atmo!

Thanks, dude.

Hope yours was swell (at your age, you might have to look up that word...j/k)
We could really see one heck of a Snow Storm from this in the Tennessee Valley and NorthEast. And very severe Weather in the South!




New Blog
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