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The Upcoming Benefits of GOES-R for Hurricane Monitoring and Forecasting

By: Bob Henson 4:56 PM GMT on November 28, 2016

A new era in satellite monitoring of the Western Hemisphere began on November 19 with the successful launch of the GOES-R satellite. GOES-R is the latest in a sequence of GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) satellites that began in 1975. Both polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites gather crucial data for incorporation in computer forecast models, but it’s the geostationary birds--stationed at fixed spots tens of thousands of miles above the surface--that furnish most of the satellite imagery we’ve seen on television and the Internet since the first GOES satellite was sent into space in 1975. The new satellite and three more that will follow (collectively referred to as the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite–R Series) will provide a huge leap forward in temporal and spatial resolution, with more frequent and precise images than ever before gathered by a U.S. geostationary satellite.


Figure 1. A rocket bearing the GOES-R satellite hurtles into space from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 6:42 PM EST Saturday, November 19, 2016. As with previous launches, NASA worked with NOAA to develop and launch GOES-R. See embedded video of the launch at bottom. Image credit: NOAA.

When do we see the first pictures?
Although GOES-R will be in a test mode until about one year after launch (i.e., till November 2017), we won’t have to wait that long to get a peek at its offerings. The satellite should begin providing researchers with initial imagery in the next couple of months from its vantage point 22,500 miles above the equator near 89.5°W, roughly the longitude of St. Louis, Memphis, and New Orleans. This location will allow GOES-R to observe tropical cyclones in both the western North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. According to the GOES-R Product Readiness and Operations Team, data from 16 wavelength channels, including visible and infrared images, will be made public starting in May 2017 at the following tempos:

Full-disk images (spanning most of the Western Hemisphere): every 15 minutes
Continental U.S.:  every 5 minutes
Mesoscale (regional) areas of interest:  every minute

Once operational, GOES-R will be able to provide high-resolution mesoscale images as often as every 30 seconds in rapid-refresh mode.

The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard GOES-R is comparable to the Advanced Himawari Imager aboard Japan’s Himawari-8 and -9 satellites. Tropical weather watchers have been marveling at the crystal-clear images of Northwest Pacific typhoons and Southwest Pacific cyclones gathered from Himawari-8 since July 2015 (Himawari-9 was launched on November 2 of this year). Himawari’s visible images boast a top horizontal resolution of 500 meters (1640 feet). That’s about four city blocks!


Figure 2. Visible (top) and infrared (bottom) images of Super Typhoon Meranti in the Philippine Sea on September 11, 2016, as gathered by Japan’s Himawari-8 satellite. The GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager is expected to gather data of comparable quality. Image credit: CIMSS Satellite Blog.

The crisp, frequent imagery from GOES-R is expected to be a particular boon to forecasters keeping tabs of fast-changing weather features, including supercell thunderstorms as well as the cores of rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes.  “We are hopeful that the improved resolution will help in resolving tropical cyclone features such as emerging eyes, which should lead to better analyses of current intensity,” said Chris Velden (University of Wisconsin–CIMSS) in an email.

GOES-R also includes a Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), a groundbreaking operational sensor--the first of its type on any geostationary satellite--that will detect in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground activity throughout the Americas. The GLM also will allow forecasters to monitor lightning activity over the open ocean where traditional land-based lightning mapping systems can’t operate. With a resolution of around 10 kilometers (6 miles), GLM data will help forecasters watch for pockets of strong thunderstorms that may help contribute to the intensification of a tropical cyclone.


Figure 3. At top is two different modes of simulated GOES-R satellite imagery for Hurricane Wilma (October 19, 2005), as compared to the same type of output from the lower-resolution GOES-12 satellite (bottom). GOES-R infrared data, as depicted in (b), will feed into a new Hurricane Intensity Estimation (HIA) algorithm, the latest iteration of the Advanced Dvorak Technique that allows for automated estimates of tropical cyclone intensity based on infrared satellite imagery. Image credit: GOES-R.

Giving the models more to chew on
Over time, GOES-R should pay big dividends for numerical forecasting models, which often lean heavily on satellite data for their starting-point initializations. Scientists are still exploring the best ways to assimilate various types of satellite data into existing models, including the smorgasbord of new data soon to come from GOES-R. In a paper recently accepted by Monthly Weather Review, Velden and colleagues describe a new technique designed to allow the HWRF model to assimilate winds inferred from cloud motion (atmospheric motion vectors, or AMVs) of the type that GOES-R will produce. “These enhanced AMVs can provide a better initial state for the model,” said Velden. Since GOES-R has more imaging bands than its predecessors, it will be able to better specify the heights of AMVs.


Figure 4. Left: Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) for Hurricane Katrina (2005) as produced from GOES-12 data (4 km resolution, every 15 minutes). Right: a simulation of the enhanced AMVs that GOES-R will be able to produce (2 km resolution, every 5 minutes). Image credit: “GOES-R Impacts on Satellite Data Assimilation,” UCAR/COMET (free registration required to view module).

One feature that didn’t make it to GOES-R from the previous GOES generation is the sounder, an instrument designed to produce vertical profiles of atmospheric conditions similar to those gathered by balloon-borne radiosondes. The original plan was to include an advanced sounder aboard GOES-R, but the sounder was dropped in 2006 because of tight budgets. Along with its many other benefits, the wealth of high-resolution data from the GOES-R imager will help fill in some of the information that the aborted sounder would have provided for assimilation into computer models.

Next in the queue
Three more satellites in the GOES-R series are forthcoming: GOES-S, GOES-T, and GOES-U. If all goes well, forecasters will be drawing on data from these four launches until at least 2036. After its year-long testing phase, GOES-R will be shifted to serve as either the western or eastern satellite in the GOES constellation (GOES West or GOES East). That choice will depend on how well the two current satellites in those positions, GOES-15 and GOES-13, continue to function. (Each satellite has both a numeric and alphabetic suffix, with GOES-R to be designated as GOES-16 once it goes into geostationary orbit.) Another satellite, GOES-14, remains in space as a backup but isn’t being used at present. NOAA’s satellite agency, NESDIS, is structured to accommodate 24/7 operational data from only two satellites at a time.

We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday. Thanks go to Chris Velden (UW/CIMSS/SSEC) and Michael Folmer (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction) for background used in this post. You can follow the steps in GOES-R’s transition to data-gathering mode at an updates page maintained by NOAA/NESDIS.

Bob Henson


Video 1. GOES-R heads into space aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket on November 19, 2016, from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. Image credit: NASA.

Satellites Mesoscale Forecasting Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new Post Mr. Henson...
La-Nina is officially DONE! With this warm sub surface pool developing there is now zero chance of us "Officially" reaching La-Nina and we have to watch how this warm pool unfolds over the coming months for a possible El-Nino in 2017.

Twas a good clean ride to Orbit.
Going to be interesting to see what type of Winter the US actually sees given this unusual sea surface set up across the Pacific and Atlantic. Definitely think the NOAA forecast is out to lunch though by how much is the question.

Bottom line this November PDO is going to be very high and could near record levels again.

Thanks, Mr. Henson!

I wonder why at least in Fig. 4, there are no vectors over large areas of CDO. I'd think, that there are always some kinds of visible features at each place of a tropical cyclone, that could be followed.
Thank You for the Update Mr. Henson on the newest generation GOES Satts; I figured that some of the new technology would mirror some of the advancements in resolution and optics that we have been seeing with the Himawari ones as well as some more recent improvements. Awesome to think that we will now be able to monitor tropical storms (and other weather events) in virtual real time including lightning issues which is often the precursor to an RI event.

The downside is that instead of us Bloggers fixating on every 30 minute satt frame to discuss trends in a storm/hurricane, now we might be obsessing over every one minute change...............Lol. The trends over a 6-12 period are key and I can't wait to see the animated long term loops with all of the new available features on the Noaa sat pages.

Thanks for the blog Mr Henson. Many are saying that Lenny is the strongest hurricane in November that is not true, the strongest hurricane in November was a cat 5 in 1932. Lenny is the second strongest hurricane ever record in November and the strongest in the sattelite era.
Greetings from - for a change - frosty Germany and thanks for the new blog entry. Looking forward to the GOES-R images so much! Looks like we'll have to wait a couple or years to enjoy the next generation of Eumetsat weather satellites though:
Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) will see the launch of six new satellites from 2020.

Some weather and climate news:

Harsh Weather in Greece, One Dead on Zakynthos (video)
By, Philip Chrysopoulos -Nov 27, 2016

This front of severe weather is now moving across the Aegean Sea towards western Turkey, see Estofex.

Dangerous air quality throughout much of Norway
The air quality in ten locations in southern and eastern Norway was declared a health hazard on Monday morning.
The Local (Norway), 28 November 2016

Shrinking glaciers cause state-of-emergency drought in Bolivia
Climate News Network: Three main dams supplying water to La Paz and El Alto are no longer fed by Andean glaciers and have nearly run dry
The Guardian, Monday 28 November 2016 11.19 GMT

Pope urges world leaders not to hobble climate change pact
by Reuters, Monday, 28 November 2016 16:07 GMT
VATICAN CITY, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Pope Francis urged national leaders on Monday to implement global environmental agreements without delay, a message that looked to be squarely aimed at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Addressing a group of scientists that included theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, the pope gave his strongest speech on the environment since the election of Trump, who has threatened to pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
"The 'distraction' or delay in implementing global agreements on the environment shows that politics has become submissive to a technology and economy which seek profit above all else," Francis said.
Francis, who wrote an encyclical, or papal letter, on the environment last year, took a swipe at those who dispute that climate change is caused by human activity, criticising "the ease with which well-founded scientific opinion about the state of our planet is disregarded". ...

Whole article see link above.

Here is the whole speech in English.

Here some photos of the meeting in the Vatican with Stephen Hawking.
Currently, it's actually a little gusty in North Florida but full sunshine; I would image that it is gusty along the Northern Gulf Coast, and inland, but the t-storms are starting to perk up in North Louisiana, AK, MS and SW Tenn with the first tornado watch up in the region: 

WW0501 Radar

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop






Some nasty cells in Northern MISS and headed towards TN at the moment:


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

"Full-disk images (spanning most of the Western Hemisphere): every 15 minutes
Continental U.S.: every 5 minutes
Mesoscale (regional) areas of interest: every minute"

*excitement intensifies*
Quoting 15. Grothar:




Need to watch that Gro as models Especially the Euro and CMC have this moisture heading west across the Caribbean then north into FL later this weekend into early next week. Maybe some heavy rains down the road for FL. Cross your fingers as it hasn't rain in over 6 weeks at my location.
Windy with either granular snow, big sleet or tiny hail. Pyramid Lake effect weather blowing over Fallon. We've hit the high for the day already a little after 10am, mid-40's, and now the cold front's hustling through.

The kiddos gotta get more firewood in a half hour or so. Poor kiddos. :)
I have a problem in this blog, everytime I want to enter by the main page into the blog instead of finding the newest entry I find the one of otto expected to strike CA as a hurricane. I am not sure if its my computer or if there is something wrong with the blog. What can I do to resolve this problem ? any ideas?
12Z Euro is showing PWATS in the 2.0 to 2.3" range on Sunday across C & S FL. That is from the moisture surge that GRO showed. Shows up nice on Weatherbell's Euro animations. Moisture gets drawn north from this massive trough this weekend.

Even snow in Mexico if this pans out.

Prayers up for the victims of the Ohio State attacks. Kudos to the officer for neutralizing the threat so quickly.
Quoting 17. StormTrackerScott:



Need to watch that Gro as models Especially the Euro and CMC have this moisture heading west across the Caribbean then north into FL later this weekend into early next week. Maybe some heavy rains down the road for FL. Cross your fingers as it hasn't rain in over 6 weeks at my location.


Wrong.....moisture is heading from west to east here!
Quoting 19. allancalderini:

I have a problem in this blog, everytime I want to enter by the main page into the blog instead of finding the newest entry I find the one of otto expected to strike CA as a hurricane. I am not sure if its my computer or if there is something wrong with the blog. What can I do to resolve this problem ? any ideas?

Same here. Solution as long as this glitch isn't fixed: Click "News & Blogs" in the black bar on top of the tropical site and then select "Dr. Jeff Masters".
Quoting 23. barbamz:


Same here. Solution as long as this glitch isn't fixed: Click "News & Blogs" in the black bar on top of the tropical site and then select "Dr. Jeff Masters".
Thank you very much, I really appreciate it. I hope the problem can be solved quickly.
Thanks for the new blog Mr Henson.
Ding Dong




Recent 2:45 EST vis still from Goes 13; can you imagine what this image will look like in 2017 off the new Goes Satt?






Quoting 7. elioe:

Thanks, Mr. Henson!

I wonder why at least in Fig. 4, there are no vectors over large areas of CDO. I'd think, that there are always some kinds of visible features at each place of a tropical cyclone, that could be followed.


Good question! Here's what Chris Velden (University of Wisconsin-CIMSS) tells me: "The AMV tracking software needs coherent spatial/horizontal gradients in the cloud structure in order to derive wind vectors. In a TC CDO, the scene (image) is often all very cold temps and lacking in spatial gradients, or 'features'....or, vertical motions and convection are dominating the flow in which case the temps are changing and incoherent, at least in terms of tracking consistency for the pixels in the target and tracking boxes. Since AMVs are assumed to be estimating the cloud advection flow, there are none derived in these scenarios."
drought quenching rains for some



thanks for the update very excited about the new images we will get soon
The "hoax" continues to produce new tricks -
Huge Cracks In the West Antarctic Ice Sheet May Signal Its Collapse
Last year, a 225 square-mile chunk of West Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier broke off and tumbled into the sea. Now, Earth scientists at Ohio State University have pinpointed the root cause of the iceberg calving event: a crack that started deep below ground and 20 miles inland.

It’s like nothing scientists have witnessed in West Antarctica before, and it doesn’t bode well for the ice sheet’s future.


Link
Columbus AFB, MS (KGWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Scientists chart a 400-mile zone of coral devastation at the Great Barrier Reef

Australian researchers who have been surveying the damage at the Great Barrier Reef from an unprecedented coral bleaching event earlier this year released a new map Monday, showing a large zone of intense coral death as well as several regions that, hearteningly, escaped largely unscathed.

The results confirm an overall picture suggesting that the northern part of the reef, which scientists say was once its most “pristine,” has seen devastating losses.


Link
Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique ://

Nice looking squall line for the E-Caribbean. Looks like the islands are in for some rough weather pretty soon. I had some pretty strong winds between 3AM and 5AM here in PR's North coast, as the trough and front moved through.



Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




anyone know what's going on with the gust front looking thing in the middle of all the precip? never seen anything like it, but probably a simple explanation.


it stretches a long way, and seems to be moving faster than the larger mass of precip
Accelerated ice shelf rifting and retreat at Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Authors
Seongsu Jeong,
Ian M. Howat,
Jeremy N. Bassis
First published: 28 November 2016

Abstract

Pine Island Glacier has undergone several major iceberg calving events over the past decades. These typically occurred when a rift at the heavily fractured shear margin propagated across the width of the ice shelf. This type of calving is common on polar ice shelves, with no clear connection to ocean-ice dynamic forcing. In contrast, we report on the recent development of multiple rifts initiating from basal crevasses in the center of the ice shelf, resulted in calving further upglacier than previously observed. Coincident with rift formation was the sudden disintegration of the ice mélange that filled the northern shear margin, resulting in ice sheet detachment from this margin. Examination of ice velocity suggests that this internal rifting resulted from the combination of a change in ice shelf stress regime caused by disintegration of the mélange and intensified melting within basal crevasses, both of which may be linked to ocean forcing.

Link
Everyone and particularly in the SE have a safe weather evening; that gust front line is fascinating (never seen one like it) but at least it appears to be a fast moving short-term event when it comes through.   See Yall Tomorrow.


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

La-Nina is officially DONE! With this warm sub surface pool developing there is now zero chance of us "Officially" reaching La-Nina and we have to watch how this warm pool unfolds over the coming months for a possible El-Nino in 2017.




Nope, no EL Nino :)
There is a wall of rain coming towards us from the west and I couldn't be happier because we could really use the rain.It has been abnormally dry around here and I can't remember the last time my shoes were caked in mud but hopefully this is a start to a pattern change.
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

There is a wall of rain coming towards us from the west and I couldn't be happier because we could really use the rain.It has been abnormally dry around here and I can't remember the last time my shoes were caked in mud but hopefully this is a start to a pattern change.
lots of rain wash then more after that

7 day total totals

some good totals as per gfs out till Saturday

T- 2 DAYS REMAIN 2016 ATL/EPAC HURRICANE SEASON
Did Föhn Winds Just Melt Two Miles of East Antarctic Surface Ice in One Day?

It’s right there in the satellite image. A swatch of blue that seems to indicate an approximate 2-mile long melt lake formed over the surface of East Antarctica in just one day. If confirmed, this event would be both odd and concerning. A part of the rising signal that melt stresses for the largest mass of land ice on the planet are rapidly increasing.

Link
Quoting 46. CaribBoy:



Nope, no EL Nino :)
he will be forecasting an El Niño till it happens again eventually
... and RapidSCAT is dead.

NASA calls time on ISS-RapidScat

"NASA has decided to end operations on the International Space Station Rapid Scatterometer (ISS-RapidScat) Earth science instrument, following attempts to return to life after a power issue. Despite the conclusion of its life, the instrument had already surpassed its original discommissioning date."

Back to just ASCAT!
Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some good totals as per gfs out till Saturday



Whoa that is a ton of rain! Probably even more :)
Quoting 45. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone and particularly in the SE have a safe weather evening; that gust front line is fascinating (never seen one like it) but at least it appears to be a fast moving short-term event when it comes through.   See Yall Tomorrow.


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop


I've seen that structure before, it's generally what happens when there is strong mechanical lifting and strong unidirectional speed shear but not much turning with height and weak mid level instability. The convection is strong but pretty shallow due to weak mid level instability and it is very linear due to plenty of unidirectional speed shear.
a glimpse of whats to come from the goes-r. (this is himawari 8)
Only 49 more images to upload for this season's hurricane animation! (48 for the 29th...and the 00:15 for the 30th.)

It seems these animations get harder to make every year!
im addicted to these, i'm sure people wont mind ;) there's so many things going on in this one! the convection that bursts like a bubble being popped...theres also some waves that move around and i cant tell if they're on the ocean, or in the atmosphere..what you think? I JUST LOOKED CLOSER AND I THINK YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE OCEAN SWELL MOVEMENT!! wow.





Big push of Siberian Arctic air into the North Pacific.
67. SLU
Quoting 41. 882MB:

Nice looking squall line for the E-Caribbean. Looks like the islands are in for some rough weather pretty soon. I had some pretty strong winds between 3AM and 5AM here in PR's North coast, as the trough and front moved through.






I just experienced north-westerly winds of 35 to 40mph with gusts to at least 50mph in the last hour as the squall line reached St. Lucia
Quoting 64. earthisanocean:

im addicted to these, i'm sure people wont mind ;) there's so many things going on in this one! the convection that bursts like a bubble being popped...theres also some waves that move around and i cant tell if they're on the ocean, or in the atmosphere..what you think? I JUST LOOKED CLOSER AND I THINK YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE OCEAN SWELL MOVEMENT!! wow.






I also enjoy these impressive satellite views. For example, this one below. (Typhoon Megi)




Quoting 67. SLU:



I just experienced north-westerly winds of 35 to 40mph with gusts to at least 50mph in the last hour as the squall line reached St. Lucia


Pretty incredible, to say the least.
The "blob" didn't stay long over the central Lesser Antilles.



The highest measured rainfall is just below 2" here. But the models show that the area of moisture will turn back to the west... xD
No solar plant will ever have these back end costs -

Japan Fukushima nuclear plant 'clean-up costs double'

Japan's government estimates the cost of cleaning up radioactive contamination and compensating victims of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster has more than doubled, reports say.
The latest estimate from the trade ministry put the expected cost at some 20 trillion yen ($180bn, £142bn).
The original estimate was for $50bn, which was increased to $100bn three years later.

Link
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description
5:30 AM IST November 29 2016
==================================

Vortex over southeastern Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean centered near 5.0N 89.0E. Shear pattern. Cloud top temperature around the low pressure area is -92C.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Japan Fukushima nuclear plant 'clean-up costs double'

This is just getting started. These numbers are just a drop in the bucket. That "Too cheap to meter" sales pitch seems rather hollow now.


India Meteorological Department mean sea low pressure map.
Mining projects, big plantations mean Bolivia's drought hurts more: campaigners

Campaigners also say large-scale agriculture projects, like soya and sugar cane plantations, which started in the late 1990s, have cut down Bolivia's forests and guzzled water.

"The big agricultural companies use water like its their own private resource," said Gonzalo Colque, head of Tierra Foundation, a Bolivian non-governmental environment group.

Morales has said the current crisis is an opportunity to "plan large investments" to adapt to climate change.


Link
Now back to the breathless reports on how much crap we bought online today.
As we club each other over the head for flat screen TV's, and recoil from the latest mindlessness at Ohio State, let us bare in mind that the Pentagon calls Climate Change, "a threat multiplier".

Thirsty Somalis Trek 60 KM for Water as Drought and Conflict Bite

NAIROBI —
A second poor rainy season in Somalia has pushed livestock herders in the drought-hit Puntland region to trek an average of 60 km (40 miles) to fetch drinking water, aid agencies said on Monday, calling for rapid action to prevent renewed famine.

Five million Somalis, or more than four out of ten people, do not have enough to eat because of poor rains and fighting between the Islamist militant group al Shabab and Somalia’s African Union-backed government.


Link
test comment
test image

Look at those Bow-echoes at 8:15 PM, very unsettled pattern.

Quoting 80. 882MB:

some good rains
Sahel Countries in Race Against Time to Regreen Africa's Spreading Desert

‘Battle against time’

"It's a battle against time, because dryland forests are disappearing and climate change is really happening — and more droughts and floods will not make the work easy," said Nora Berrahmouni, forestry officer for drylands at FAO.

"People need to work hard and quickly to make sure that land is restored and becomes more productive, and supports livelihoods," she told Reuters.

Some 60 million Africans could be forced to leave their homes within five years as their land turns to desert, while two-thirds of the continent's arable land could be lost by 2025 due to growing desertification, according to the United Nations.


Link
83. SLU
Quoting 80. 882MB:

Look at those Bow-echoes at 8:15 PM, very unsettled pattern.




These are indicative of powerful downbursts from the thunderstorms causing the air to spread out resulting in TS force winds in some of the islands.
"Get ready little lady, hell is comin' to breakfast"

Lone Wati
Quoting 84. RobertWC:

"Get ready little lady, hell is comin' to breakfast"

Lone Wati





Published on Nov 28, 2016 by: WiStarPS
I live right next to Gatlinburg and its surrounded by fire. High winds today have spread the wildfire all over the Smokey Mountains. People are trapped and cant get out of some places. Please pray for rain.
My other posts didn't take..Gatlinburg, TN and surrounding communities are being evacuated. People are not being allowed into Gatlinburg. Wildfire has spread wildly in high winds, several new fires started. By the looks of YouTube structures are burning, people are fleeing, some trapped. Bus available out and more info here..

More in my blog comments too.
Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:

... and RapidSCAT is dead.

NASA calls time on ISS-RapidScat

"NASA has decided to end operations on the International Space Station Rapid Scatterometer (ISS-RapidScat) Earth science instrument, following attempts to return to life after a power issue. Despite the conclusion of its life, the instrument had already surpassed its original discommissioning date."

Back to just ASCAT!


=/ I always wondered. Is there a way we the people can donate for more instruments in a reliable way? Please don't say taxes. Who knows where most of that ends up...... Also "non-profits" gets effy too. After all, how come leaders of said organizations are usually more than well off than they should be? (ex. March of Dimes)........
Been watching closely from western NC.

via Brad Panovich:

A huge wildfire being fanned by 60 mph winds has taken over parts of #Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge, TN. The fires and smoke are visible on radar but so is a rain band heading that way. Full evacuation underway. #TNFire #tnwx


people are saying its gone
im in tears. can't watch another video of those people getting stuck driving next to what looks like a volcano in Tennessee. huge loss of life >10,000 animals if the Ripley's Believe-It-or-Not aquarium is truly gone.

there is no media coverage except local news in western NC covering eastern TN so I do not want to believe what social media is saying

Oooo..... new toys! :o)

David Attenborough on climate change: 'The world will be transformed' – video

Published on Nov 29, 2016

An extract from Liberatum’s documentary In this Climate, in which a range of cultural and environmental figures including Noam Chomsky, David Attenborough and Mark Ruffalo respond to the threat of climate change and to the deniers. The full-length film is scheduled for release before the World Economic Forum in January 2017

This has a bit of cursing in it & a lot of burning homes and cabins..

credit Michael Luciano

Twin contra-rotating vortices are spinning up in the Indian Ocean, off either tip of Sumatra. See MIMIC-TPW.
Looks like there was a big effort to save Dollywood. Not sure if they were successful.

Dollywood Lane in Pigeon Forge

credit: Darren Reese
Quoting 97. NutZilla:



Climate Scientist? (Yes or No)
Noam Chomsky - No
David Attenborough - No
Mark Ruffalo - No

So what. You need only a little high school physics that is older than a century to grasp we have a planetary emergency on our hands. So pay attention.
And on this morning that the Lord hath made, November 29, 2016, all manner of people, plants, trees and all creatures, from the smallest bugs to all of the fowl and beasts of burden, in the Florida Big Bend rejoiced and were comforted by a very small band of life giving and sustaining rain; for the people and animals across the land had forgotten how good it felt and what rain looked like:


Southeast sector

Quoting 97. NutZilla:



Climate Scientist? (Yes or No)
Noam Chomsky - No
David Attenborough - No
Mark Ruffalo - No


Why does that matter? You don't listen to the scientists either.
Quoting 104. NutZilla:



So what? Seriously?...... :\

I took high school physics. And I took college-level physics. NO WHERE in those classes was "climate" a part of the curriculum.

However, in high school chemistry and college-level chemistry (including organic chemistry,) we did learn all about CO2 and other molecules, too.

What did I learn about CO2 in those classes? I learned that it is a VITAL GAS in our atmosphere (although it comprises only a small fraction of the total.) I also learned that plants need it as part of the process of photosynthesis. When we breathe, we exhale CO2. And I also learned that breathing heavy concentrations of CO2 can kill you. We also learned how carbon readily combines with other molecules to create wondrous forms of energy and products that are necessary for modern civilization.

Again...no where in any of those chemistry classes was it a part of the curriculum...nor was it even mentioned...that the Earth is DOOMED because of CO2. In fact, just the opposite was "the consensus." We would be doomed without CO2.


We're you absent the day they covered that CO2 is opaque to infrared radiation and the basics of the greenhouse effect? Link Yes, CO2 is needed, however, too much causes an energy imbalance, too little and the planet would be much colder than it is. The Earth isn't doomed, it's everything that relies on relative stability of natural processes. I'm sure the Earth will be just fine, people on the other hand, not so much.

The "vital gas" argument is silly. For example, human's need salt (sodium) for essential body functions, it is VITAL, however, too much and there are serious health consequences. Is this getting through?
It's raining in Atlanta. Last measurable rain was ,01 inches Oct. 16 with a long dry spell before. So nice, the ground and plants are sucking it up.


What schools did you go too? The college & university Chemistry classes I attended were pretty clear that humans were looking pretty doom because of CO2.. We even did labs that showed exactly how much heat different molecules were capable of trapping. You must have missed all this in physics class too.
All the models now take this moisture plume in the Eastern Caribbean and move it west into the NW Caribbean then eventually north into FL. Pwat's of 2.1" to 2.4" is progged to overspread FL either Sunday or Monday. This would mean welcome Tropical Rains across a state that has seen virtually no rain since Hurricane Matthew.

Now


96hrs


144hrs


180hrs
Color me surprised;

Gatlinburg is on FIRE; lives and property are in IMMEDIATE danger, and I come here to find people arguing about physics class and climate change.

Perhaps some perspective is in order. Smh.
# 104. NutZilla

FYI:



Quoting 111. nash36:

Color me surprised;

Gatlinburg is on FIRE; lives and property are in IMMEDIATE danger, and I come here to find people arguing about physics class and climate change.

Perhaps some perspective is in order. Smh.



You missed by that much.

You believe what you want, we roll with Science.

You know dat,...
I also saw one large branch that snapped into the street from a neighbors yard off of a large Live Oak this morning on the way out  It was interesting because it was not that gusty overnight and it was not down last evening as of 9:00 pm. I am sure that the limb was brittle from the lack of rain and that a little bit of rain soaked into the bark to weigh it down and a small gust brought it down early this morning.  Drought is horrible; when I drove to Atlanta for Thanksgiving through Georgia driving through scenic country roads, we would often see a huge cloud of smoke on the horizon thinking it might be a fire up ahead.  On 3 occasions, it was one lone farm tractor plowing through a very dry field kicking up a huge cloud of dry dust...........It looked like something out of the Grapes of Wrath.   
115. elioe
Quoting 71. RobertWC:

No solar plant will ever have these back end costs -

Japan Fukushima nuclear plant 'clean-up costs double'

Japan's government estimates the cost of cleaning up radioactive contamination and compensating victims of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster has more than doubled, reports say.
The latest estimate from the trade ministry put the expected cost at some 20 trillion yen ($180bn, £142bn).
The original estimate was for $50bn, which was increased to $100bn three years later.

Link


Solar power does not need such back end costs to be unviable.

From the graph on this site, it can be assumed, that cumulative nuclear power production worldwide has been so far 67.5 billion MWh. And here some studies about production costs of energy from different sources. Based on that info, I estimate MWh of solar power to cost 160 €. Based on lecture notes I've taken, I estimate new nuclear power to cost 50 €/MWh. The great majority of nuclear power plants of this world have already paid their investment back, so the cost can be assumed to be only operational cost, 20 €/MWh. So, depending whether solar power is compared to new or existing nuclear power, the extra cost of generating all that nuclear energy by solar instead of nuclear: either 7425 or 9450 billion €. Roughly the same in USD.

Those exhibiting "nuclear hysteria" have found a treasure from these two major accidents that have happened so far. They can show big numbers and confuse the populace by not comparing those numbers to benefits, that are even bigger numbers. Sadly, for those that wish to stop global warming, the hysterics are so numerous that, in many cases, they are capable to stop the building of those new power plants that are the only ones capable of replacing fossil fuels in some cost-efficient manner.
CycloneOz,...

Nutzilla?

Ack, LoL
Quoting 112. Xandra:

<
Get out of here with your liberal facts! ;)
Quoting 113. Patrap:




You missed by that much.

You believe what you want, we roll with Science.

You know dat,...


I'm not talking about belief in the science, Pat. You know that, or at least you should.

I'm talking about order of importance. Lives are in danger RIGHT NOW. Perhaps the climate bickering can take a vacation. Not sure why this is hard to grasp.
Whatever...

This is why I rarely come here any longer. It's a gang mentality.

Hasta. And if you can manage it, prayers for those in danger would be appreciated.
Nash- we were talking about the fire, but A- it's hard to access the blog, and B- a previously-banned blogger has decided to flaunt his ego for a while. Well if ego is all you got, roll with it I suppose.

(note- -banned blogger "other reasons")

NASH-Skyepony is trying to cover the fires in her blog but the blogs are messed up.
Anyone with even a timid understanding of AGW ,the CO2 cycle, know that Humans are a natural part of the CO2 exchange.

It adds zero to AGW.


here,..







nash368:54 AM EST on November 29, 2016

I did not know about Gatlinburg until the post below this morning. That is very distressing to hear. One of my best ever Christmas vacations was in Gatlinburg in the late 90's and we spent 6 wonderful days there in a cabin overlooking the Smoky Mountains and hiking parts of the trail. A very beautiful place with tons of trees and wooden homes and cabins..............A recipe for destruction in a drought along with tons of tourists and visitors who may throw out a cigarette butt in a parched area or, illegally due to restrictions, light a camp or bonfire in the wrong place and fail to properly supervise the burn.

U.S. Drought Monitor forSoutheast
Miss Nola Roux is in Labor and has delivered the first pup of her litter just now.

There is a Twitter account close to Gatlinburg

@ChrisJacksonSC

he's a firefighter and a weather geek, this is a pretty good twitter account for the area, also links to local news sources



Quoting 115. elioe:



Solar power does not need such back end costs to be unviable.

From the graph on this site, it can be assumed, that cumulative nuclear power production worldwide has been so far 67.5 billion MWh. And here some studies about production costs of energy from different sources. Based on that info, I estimate MWh of solar power to cost 160 €. Based on lecture notes I've taken, I estimate new nuclear power to cost 50 €/MWh. The great majority of nuclear power plants of this world have already paid their investment back, so the cost can be assumed to be only operational cost, 20 €/MWh. So, depending whether solar power is compared to new or existing nuclear power, the extra cost of generating all that nuclear energy by solar instead of nuclear: either 7425 or 9450 billion €. Roughly the same in USD.

Those exhibiting "nuclear hysteria" have found a treasure from these two major accidents that have happened so far. They can show big numbers and confuse the populace by not comparing those numbers to benefits, that are even bigger numbers. Sadly, for those that wish to stop global warming, the hysterics are so numerous that, in many cases, they are capable to stop the building of those new power plants that are the only ones capable of replacing fossil fuels in some cost-efficient manner.

Cheap dreams, expensive realities


Chill man you are hyping me up to the sun
Quoting 119. nash36:



I'm not talking about belief in the science, Pat. You know that, or at least you should.

I'm talking about order of importance. Lives are in danger RIGHT NOW. Perhaps the climate bickering can take a vacation. Not sure why this is hard to grasp.

I'm sure that you will be notified if and when your services as a moderator are needed.
Quoting 111. nash36:

Color me surprised;

Gatlinburg is on FIRE; lives and property are in IMMEDIATE danger, and I come here to find people arguing about physics class and climate change.

Perhaps some perspective is in order. Smh.

Climate change. The fires - in November!!! - merely a symptom.
This kind of remark always has me wishing for some more, I mean much more, because the message is still not clear and you are messing with MY planet here.
sorry I try to give everyone a fair chance
but some refuse too learn he be back around 10pm to post his video
and behave after that if not well .
as one moves along the second is building back over east texas

from CNN:

Three Gatlinburg-area resorts appear to have been destroyed by wildfires in the popular tourist area in eastern Tennessee, state emergency management spokesman Dean Flener said Tuesday morning.
The resorts are the Ober Gatlinburg amusement park and ski area, the Black Bear Falls log-cabin rental resort, and the Westgate Mountain Resort & Spa, Flener said, citing initial reports from Sevier County emergency management officials.
Quoting 110. StormTrackerScott:

All the models now take this moisture plume in the Eastern Caribbean and move it west into the NW Caribbean then eventually north into FL. Pwat's of 2.1" to 2.4" is progged to overspread FL either Sunday or Monday. This would mean welcome Tropical Rains across a state that has seen virtually no rain since Hurricane Matthew.

Now


96hrs


144hrs


180hrs



FL got 2 hurricanes and plenty of rain before Matthew, right? Come on lol FL can't steal all the rain xD
Quoting 122. Patrap:

Anyone with even a timid understanding of AGW ,the CO2 cycle, know that Humans are a natural part of the CO2 exchange.

It adds zero to AGW.


here,..








Yep...If one considers what we are doing to the rainforests and trees, that would be considered un-natural.....Link

The Disappearing Rainforests
We are losing Earth's greatest biological treasures just as we are beginning to appreciate their true value. Rainforests once covered 14% of the earth's land surface; now they cover a mere 6% and experts estimate that the last remaining rainforests could be consumed in less than 40 years.
Whew, I'm back from 2005 again.
Hope Greg makes it out!
Quoting 140. swflurker:

Whew, I'm back from 2005 again.
Hope Greg makes it out!
I was just there myself good times bad times
maybe the system is self learning doing a way back when thing who knows unstable is the word

T-1 DAY REMAINS 2016 SEASON
Quoting 138. CaribBoy:



FL got 2 hurricanes and plenty of rain before Matthew, right? Come on lol FL can't steal all the rain xD


We had a pretty good rainy season here in my area of S.W. Florida.
But we've gone 49 days without measurable precipitation here and all the smaller vegetation (bushes, smaller trees, grasses, etc) is dying. Grass that is not watered is brown and completely burnt by the sun.

A local meteorologist said the record was something like 66 days with no rain. So we're getting pretty close to that (a couple more weeks).

The biggest issue is having a bad fire season. All we need is a strong cold front (strong winds with low humidity) and some crazy person starting a fire and we'll have a major fire on our hands.
Quoting 103. weathermanwannabe:

:


Southeast sector


and it was good more will come
Forgot to post the storm reports from yesterday; here they are and the outlook and jet for today:

yesterday Reports Graphic
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 96. Skyepony:

This has a bit of cursing in it & a lot of burning homes and cabins..

credit Michael Luciano

Absolutely horrifying.