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The unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 PM GMT on December 01, 2005

It is finally December, and hurricane season is officially over. But this is the Hurricane Season of 2005. The normal rules do not apply. True to its character all year, the Hurricane Season of 2005 continues to defy the normal rules. Tropical Storm Epsilon is still out there in the mid-Atlantic, and is expected to be with us another two days before increasing winds shear and cold waters weaken it and convert it to a regular extra-tropical low. The Azores Islands need to be concerned about this storm, but Epsilon is not a threat to any other land areas. Perhaps the last casualty has been inflicted, the last damage done by the Hurricane Season of 2005.

How can one summarize this unbelievable hurricane season? I strongly believe that this was a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season. To have 26 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and three of the six strongest hurricanes of all time in one year so greatly exceeds our meteorological understanding of what is possible, that I believe that was a once in 500 years kind of season. Let us consider some of the major records that were broken in 2005:

Seasonal records set in 2005

- Most tropical storms: 27. Old record: 21 in 1933.

- Most hurricanes: 14. Old record: 12 in 1969.

- Most Category 5 hurricanes: 3 (Katrina, Rita, Wilma. Emily may be classified as a Category 5 upon re-analysis.) Old record: 2 in 1960 and 1961.

- Most hurricane names to be retired: 6 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, and possibly others). Previous record: 4 in 1955, 1995, and 2004.

- Most major hurricanes: 7 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma, Beta). Ties record of 7 set in 1950.

- Most major hurricanes to hit the U.S.: 4 (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Previous record: 3 in 1893, 1909, 1933, and 1954.

- Most damage ever recorded in a hurricane season: $150 billion. Previous record: approximately $50 billion dollars (normalized to 2005 dollars) set in 1992 and 2004.

-Highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index: 245. Previous record: 243 (1950). Average for a season is 93.

-Latest end to a hurricane season: January 6 Previous record: January 5, for the 1954-55 hurricane season.

Notable near records for the season

- Second highest number of tropical storms to hit U.S.: 7 (The record was 8 in 1916 and 2004). Note that Hurricane Ophelia is not considered a U.S. strike, although it did bring hurricane conditions to the North Carolina coast.

- Second highest number of hurricanes to kill 1000+ people: 2 (Katrina and Stan). All time record: 3 (1780).

- Second highest number of named storm days: 126.5. All time record: 136 (1933).

Single storm records:

- Strongest Atlantic hurricane ever: Wilma, 882 mb central pressure. Old record: Hurricane Gilbert (1988), 888 mb.

- Fastest intensification ever by an Atlantic hurricane: Wilma. Wilma's pressure dropped from 982 millibars to 882 millibars in 24 hours on Oct 19, a rate of 4.2 millibars an hour. Previous record: Gilbert (1988) dropped 3 mb/hour over 24 hours. Wilma's pressure fell 9.7 mb/hour over six hours early on Oct. 19, beating Hurricane Beulah's drop of 6.3 mb/hour in six hours in 1967.

- Most damaging hurricane ever: Katrina, $100 billion plus. Old record: Hurricane Andrew (1992), $50 billion in 2005 dollars.

- Greatest storm surge from an Atlantic hurricane: Katrina, 28-30 feet. Old record: Hurricane Camille (1969), 24.6 feet.

- Dennis became the most intense hurricane on record before August when a central pressure of 930 mb was recorded.

- Emily eclipsed the record previously set by Dennis for lowest pressure recorded for a hurricane before August when its central pressure reached 929 mb.

- Vince was the furthest north and east that a storm has ever developed in the Atlantic basin.

- Vince was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history to strike the Iberian Peninsula.

- Delta was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history to strike the Canary Islands.


Monthly records

June

- Two named storms formed (Arlene and Bret). Only 1957, 1959, 1968, and 1986 had two or more named storms form during the month of June.

July

- Five named storms formed (Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, and Gert). This is the most on record for July.

- Two major hurricanes formed (Dennis and Emily). This is the most on record.

- 25.25 named storm days occurred. This is the most on record.

- 10.75 hurricane days occurred. This is the most on record.

- 5.75 intense hurricane days occurred. This is the most on record.

August

- Five named storms formed (Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina and Lee). Only 1990, 1995 and 2004 had more than five named storms form during the month of August.

September

- Five hurricanes formed (Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe and Rita). This ties 1955, 1969, 1981, 1998 and 2000 for the most hurricanes to form during the month of September.

October

- Six named storms formed (Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma, Alpha and Beta). This ties 1950 for the most named storm formations during the month of October.

- Four hurricanes formed (Stan, Vince, Wilma and Beta). Only 1950 had more hurricanes develop during the month of October.

- Two major hurricanes formed (Wilma and Beta). This ties 1950, 1961, 1964 and 1995 for the most intense hurricanes to form during the month of October.

- Five intense hurricane days occurred. Only 1954 and 1961 recorded more intense hurricane days.

November

- Three tropical storms formed in November (Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon). This breaks the record of two storms set in six years, most recently in 2001.

December

- Epsilon was a hurricane for 5.25 days, making it the longest lived December hurricane on record. The previous record was just over four days, set by an unnamed 1887 hurricane.

January

- Tropical Storm Zeta was the longest-lived January storm on record (six days). January 2006 had the greatest number of named storm days ever recorded in January (six).

Earliest Storm Formation records
- Earliest formation of a season's 4th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 5th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 6th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 7th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 8th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 9th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 10th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 11th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 13th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 14th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 15th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 16th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 17th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 19th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 20th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 21st Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 22nd Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 23rd Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 24th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 25th Storm
- Earliest formation of a season's 26th Storm

I credit Dr. Bill Gray's Hurricane Season of 2005 Verification posted on his web site for compiling many of these records, along with wunderblogger Cory Pesaturo. You will find many more records listed on their web pages.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

frist to post lol


all i can say is wow what a hurricane year this was and i hop this year will not be like this one but we will see what next year will have for all of us
if they do make the E storm a cat 5 at one time with winds of 160 to 175 mph at one time that would make it 4 cat 5 in one hurricane year and wow
are they going to update the K storm to a cat 5 at landfall or will they keep it as a cat 4 at land fall?
Great summary, Dr. Masters. This has really been a once in a lifetime season. There are two corrections I would like to make though. According to this, 1950 actually had 8 major hurricanes and there were 9 landfalls in 2004 (they seem to be counting Alex as a landfall in 04). This was my first season as a Wunderground member, and I want to say thanks to you, Steve Gregory, and all the other bloggers for the great job they have done. This is by far my favorite site to get tropical information, and I'm very thankful for all of those who have made it possible. Sorry about the long post, I'll shut up now.
"- Delta was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history to strike the Canary Islands."

Why does everyone keep saying this...Delta was no longer a tropical cyclone when it hit the islands.
I think they mean that it is the first current or former tropical cyclone to hit the canary islands.

was vince still a TS at landfall on the iberian peninsula?
Thanks Jeff!!!

I'm Still Doing lots of "touch ups" on the Records don't worry Snowily - The Snowman
Can;t WAIT for the Upgrade List by the NHC on the "Final Statement"
1950 had 8 Major Hurricanes lol Jeff I told you that a LONG Time ago! I know you've got a LOT on your mind so don't worry.
and KSHurricane Good Job Your Right!
1950 was the Other Craziest Year Ever

It had 8 Cat.3+ Storms
7 IN A ROW!!!!
AND 4 MORE CAT. 2 ALMOST MAKING IT 12 MAJOR HURRICNAES!!!!
11. rlk
I'm amused by Dr. Gray's comment about it being very uncommon for storms to form after November 18.

Is the NHC going to review the wind speeds for Katrina, Rita, and Wilma? While Katrina's peak wind of 175 MPH wasn't too far out of line with its pressure (particularly given the large diameter of its circulation), Rita was more compact and more intense, and Wilma especially was a very compact storm, with its almost unbelievable central pressure. Even if the environmental pressures were low around Wilma, they weren't 970-980 mb (which would give a 90-100 mb delta), and in particular, that storm had a very small and tight vortex. Based on normal pressure/wind relationships, 175 knots would be more believable than 175 MPH for that storm.

One other thing I've noted is that since the dropsonde era (mid 1990's) there has been only one storm with wind stronger than this, and that was Mitch. Mitch had peak winds of 180 MPH, but when its wind speed was 165 MPH the flight level wind at about 10000' was 150 MPH, which would normally suggest a surface wind of 135 MPH (low end cat 4). See this page about eyewall wind profiles. That surface wind was apparently measured by dropsonde. I don't remember seeing a lot of dropsonde reports this year about winds; they were always extrapolated from the flight level winds, and the dropsondes used to measure central pressure. I wonder if the standard relationship between flight level wind and surface wind was similarly incorrect, at least in Wilma's case?
ANTOHER ONE
Tied with 1916 for Most Major Hurricanes to form in July
God I HOPE So RLK Especially Wilma Which was The Most Amazing Hurricane of the Year and Pretty much Ever
Hopefully next year will not blow all these records away.
Here are my guesses on possible key changes:

Cindy - upgraded to 75 mph peak intensity (Cat 1), which would be the landfall intensity
Emily - upgraded to 160 mph peak intensity (Cat 5), but no changes to landfalls
Katrina - upgraded to 100 mph (Cat 2) at FL landfall, no change to peak intensity but upgraded to 155 mph (Cat 4) at LA landfall and 140 mph (Cat 4) at MS landfall
Ophelia - landfall actually made in NC, and upgraded to 100 mph (Cat 2) peak intensity
Rita - upgraded to 140 mph (Cat 4) at landfall, but no change to peak intensity
Wilma - upgraded to 185 mph peak intensity (Cat 5), 160 mph (Cat 5) at Cozumel and 155 mph (Cat 4) at Yucatan landfall, no change to FL intensity
One other record that is sure to be broken this season: most retired names (the record is 4, held by 1955, 1995 and 2005). I can think of 6 names (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma) that are likely headed for retirement...
17. rlk
I'd be surprised to see Rita upgraded at landfall -- the storm was clearly weakening at that point, and seemed if anything to be only borderline cat 3. I don't see how Katrina would be upgraded at any of the three landfalls; those seemed to be well supported by ground truth. Wilma's another matter.
Cindy - upgraded to 75 mph peak intensity (Cat 1), which would be the landfall intensity
Emily - upgraded to 160 mph peak intensity (Cat 5), but no changes to landfalls
Katrina - Upgraded to 155 mph (Cat 4) at LA landfall and 140 mph (Cat 4) at MS landfall
Ophelia - landfall actually made in NC, and upgraded to 100 mph (Cat 2) peak intensity
Rita - upgraded to 140 mph (Cat 4) at landfall, but no change to peak intensity
(Wilma Deserves More Credit to yes Def. 185mph)
Wilma - upgraded to 185 mph peak intensity (Cat 5), 160 mph (Cat 5) at Cozumel and 155 mph (Cat 4) at Yucatan landfall, no change to FL intensity

Those Would Be Awsome if they did!
Thanks Crazy
My own opinions on post-season revisions:

Katrina - Upgraded to 85mph, rather than 75 at landfall 1, 135mph at MS landfall.

Ophelia - No change, landfall means >50% of the center onshore.

Rita - 180mph peak, 115 landfall.

Wilma - 185-190 peak intensity (NFW it was only 175 with that pressure), 135mph at FL landfall.

Delta - Hurricane at peak
Dr Masters, really enjoyed reading all of that information. Looking forward to the next installments. WOW what a season; hope we never repeat it!

Everyone else, thanks for your info....I still believe Wilma was stronger than a Cat 1 in Broward County FLA...we had damage that was equal to Cat 2 and 3 storms around here. That wind was really strong. Also, with the path because we had a sort of eye in North Broward, strong SE winds calmed a little and we could go outside for awhile then winds changed direction came from West and came on stronger than the front end. Just my eyewitness viewpoint!
Gamma (sure glad that was not a really bad storm)
Take A look at this Statistics.
2005 Tropical Depressions, Storms, Hurrcianes and Tropical Cyclones.
Atlantic=29
Eastern Pacific=16
Western Paccific=24
South Pacific=7
North Indian Ocean=5
South Indian Ocean=19

Source=http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
This was embeded in Dr Gray's 2005 summary
Notice of Author Changes
By William Gray
Beginning with the issuing of our first seasonal forecast for 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane activity (on Tuesday, 6 December 2005), the order of the authorship of these forecasts will be reversed from Gray and Klotzbach to Klotzbach and Gray. After 22 years (since 1984) of making these forecasts, it is appropriate that I step back and have Phil Klotzbach assume the primary responsibility for our projects seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts. Phil has been a member of my research project for the last five years and has been second author on these forecasts for the last four years. I have greatly profited and enjoyed our close personal and working relationships.

Phil is now devoting more time to the improvement of these forecasts than I am. I am now giving more of my efforts to the global warming issue and in synthesizing my projects many years of hurricane and typhoon studies.

Phil Klotzbach is an outstanding young scientist with a superb academic record. I have been amazed at how far he has come in his knowledge of hurricane prediction since joining my project five years ago. I foresee an outstanding future for him in the hurricane field. I expect he will make many new forecast innovations and skill improvements in the coming years. I plan to continue to be closely involved in the issuing of these forecasts for the next few years.

Skye - Wow, very interesting..

How is everyone today?
Doing well 21. Just checked out the 12Z models ~ 1st time since to modem died on thanksgiving. Looked different than the 00z runs discribed in the 10am disscussion. 3 of the majors are calling for a TD-TS strength storm forming east of Epsilon as she heads ne then plumits back south as a TD. Have to see if the trend holds & well ultimatly what it does. ~ A storm should develop on the east coast around 100 hrs, the GFS & ukmet show some signifigent strengthen @ 130hrs with shades of pink. Path is all over the place with extremes being the ukmet forming it over carolinias & stengthin out at sea. The GFS (scroll right hit FWD) has it raking the coastal ne rather harshly. Something to watch.
Skye, can you post a link to the model home page? My bookmark has gone poof.
Gladly :)Link.
Rlk, I would respectfully beg to differ on the Rita landfall subject. The wind damage in SE TX was more in line with a low cat. 4 hurricane (135 MPH) than a cat. 3 hurricane. The pressure of 937 MB also supports this.
The pressure of 937 was not representative of the winds at that time, since the storm was in a fairly rapid weakening trend. Looking at the radar loops, I have a big problem accepting that as a Cat 4...I'd barely beleive a 3 with that structure.
Yeah Skye, sure looks like something will form.
Haha, the NHC is back to the let's-not-upgrade-anything-to-a-Hurricane mode, with Epsilon a 70mph TS for the third time.
alright...i know that there is basically no chance of a tropical storm in january...but if there was a tropical depression...ok here are my questions:

is that even possible?

if so, would it be td01?

has it ever happened before?

thanks.
Yes it is possible, but unlikely-- after Jan 1 it would be TD 1. Hurricane Alice affected the Leeward Islands in Jan 1955.
StSimons - Would you post a link where I can read about Hurricane Alice?
Link

Alice formed at end of December 1954 but was not detected until a hurricane on Jan 1 1955 and was named Alice--but it formed in late december. It was named Alice because it was not observed Jan 1.
oops not observed until Jan 1.
I never knew that! Thanks Stsimons
PLEASE, let's not think about Hurricanes in January this year! LOL.... I do know we had a big March "No Name" storm a few years ago that brought storm surge flooding to the west coast of Florida.(it was in the late 1990's I think?) Does anyone recall that storm or have any info on it?
THis Year we might
40. iyou
seflgamma -Google 'Storm of the Century' - it will be the second item on the page.
I have two arguments for upgrading Rita to a cat. 4.

1. The wind damage in eastern Texas was more severe than most category 3 hurricanes, and was more in line with a 135 MPH cat. 4.

2. Watch a satellite loop of Rita the day it made landfall and look at the core of the storm. It was contracting. The energy of the hurricane, although not increasing, and, possibly decreasing ever so slightly, was being concentrated into a smaller area nearer the center of the storm. The pressure gradient wsa becoming tighter, and therefore, most likely, the winds were increasing. Even the mild-mannered Dr. Lyons, who many make fun of but I greatly respect, was nearly screaming at people to expect a category 4 impact at land. If the overall structure is the argument, I have one response to that. Compare Rita's structure at landfall to Emily's when it made landfall in the Yucatan. Almost the same. Emily at Yucatan landfall:

135 MPH
955 MB

Rita's pressure at landfall was a full 18 MB LOWER.
iyou,
Thanks a lot. I found it and sure enough, that was the storm I remember hitting Florida March 12, 1993 and moving on to cause a lot of damage and deaths to the NE.
I appreciate your letting me know where to find the info!
gamma
that 1993 storm was definitely not tropical though. it gave atlanta and birmingham 12" of snow! even montgomery, al got 4", an all time record. i was living in virginia and we also got about a foot of snow from it.
Hi everyone. Sorry if I am not on the topic of Hurricanes. Here in Sothern California yesterday there was a real good chance of rain. But as the afternoon has gone on it looks like the storm will move into the north and only slide down a little bit. So again we get what ever is left over. This is almost what happend last time but last time there was a cut off low and it just took a huge dive south. Computer modles said we where going to get 1-2 inches of rain last time and in the LA area got 0.05 inches of rain. Looks like this is going to happen again. Last winter where I live got over 40 inches of rain. This year it looks like we would be lucky if we get 1/2 of that.
Thank you very much for the excellant summation Dr. M, Dr. Gray, and Cory. Will look forward to the continuation of this topic.
A couple other out of season hurricanes

The March hurricane of 1908 (only March hurricane of record)

Link

Hurricane Able of May 1951 (the ONLY major hurricane to ever occur outside the regular season)

Link

The only February tropical storm known and the only out of season storm to hit the US

Link
Oops March hurricane link revised

Link
Dang it try this again Link
Raining again. Really hate to see the mud dry up.
i rode out the '93 storm just west of ashville, nc. The storm started a few hours before my last midterm. The dorms were to be closed so i huddled with some good local friends of mine. i didn't like the idea of leaving my pony, for charleston, sc spring break party. Frankly it didn't look like i'd have time to make it far either. Everyone laughed at the NWS predicted 2ft of snow. We got a little more than that. The lightning was unreal for those parts. Power gone for near a week. Roofs collapsed, including the indoor arena where i worked. i miss judged where a hill started down & fell in a 7ft drift of snow. i'm only 5ft, so panic ensued. interstates opened in 4 days, made it to charleston with a pick-up bed full of snow (took a day to dig it out & get it up the drive). Charleston saw no snow but hurricane force winds that took down a brick holiday inn. Some spring breaks were more memorable than others:) nothing like the weather to make it unforgetable.
DISCUSSION...SFC OBS...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DETECTION CONTINUE TO
INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MOISTURE IS TROPICAL IN ORIGIN. WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE BIG STORY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING HURRICANE
FORCE ON ANGEL ISLAND...82 MPH GUST. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED...UP TO 74 MPH AT THE CALAVERAS RD RAWS SITE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MTN LOCATIONS HAVE NOT HAD STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE LOW ELEVATIONS.

cat 1 hurricane in ca i am calling this storm hurricane Max
*backs slowly away, realizing that storms have occured in every month*
74mph gusts is NOT a Hurricane. Tropical systems are measured by SUSTAINED winds, which are usually 10-25% lower. For example, Wilma had 175mph sustained gusting well above 200.
but its a hurricane force wind though
I keep reading of all these bloggers expecting or hoping that such and such a storm will be upgraded. I for one expect Emily to be upgraded for peak intensity to a 160 mph cat. 5 for one advisory period in the NW Carribean.

It appears Katrina will be forunate not to be downgraded at both La. and Mississippi landfalls,although I don't agree with that position as I have written an extensive argument against that in my October 13th Blog. The HRD has suggested to the NHC who ultimately makes the decision that she should be only a 115 mph category three at Landfall and a 95 mph strong category one for Mississippi landfall which is absurd but its their subjective determination that will show up in the official reports not our opinions unfortunately. I think Katrina should be a 150 mph category four at La. landfall for she was certainly weakening during those previous 12 hours. Likewise, I would suggest an upgrade to 130 mph for Mississipi landfall as borderline category three/four hurricane for that time. A significanr\t case could be made for a 135 mph category four for that third landfall moreso than a downgrade to 120 mph or less at the Mississippi landfall.

Moreover, Rita was definately in a weakening phase as it was coming ashore with dry air infiltrating her circulation which was the main reason she was weakening along with cooler shallower waters closer to the coast. The idea she will be upgraded to Category four is not only unlikely but shouldn't be in my opinion. However, I could see an increase to a 125 mph category three from the 120 mph official wind readings that exist presently. I would even accept a 130 mph category three, but that would be the extreme rather than the logical choice in my opinion.

Theres no way Wilma will be or even should be considered for categoryu four status at SW Fla. Landfall. The intensity will either be at 125 mph or lower to 120 mph. Both are very reasonable in my opinion. On the other hand, it is logical to suspect that Wilma was a 110 to 115 mph hurricane for SE Fla. Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight revision there from the current 105 mph category two. More likely stays the same or increase to 110 mph borderline category two/three.



In my opionion, they got Dennis right with their final official report as a 946 mb 120 mph category three at landfall.


In short, heres my expectations from the NHC..

Emily 160 mph at max intensity in NW Carribean. possible upgrade

Katrina 135-140 category four at La. landfall, 115-120 at Mississippi landfall. possible downgrade

Rita 120-125 mph at landfall. possible upgrade

Wilma 120 -125 mph at landfall and 105-110 mph for Fla. East coast. no change or slight downgrade for west coast and slight upgrade for east coast.

Ophelia I can't even understand why I'm reading this storm being suggested for category two at 100 mph. It was a 90 mph category one at most.

Cindy I say 70/30 it stays 70 mph Tropical storm with the 30% being the 75 mph hurricane upgrade.

In reality the NHC is very causious in changing storms intensities from their initial calculations. The opposite is true of the HRD who is extremely conservative in their storm intensity evaluationa and pushes for reductions in intensities. Overall, the most likely expectations would be very few revisions. I expect Emily to be the most likely. Maybe a slight Katrina downgrade.

If it were my decision...

Katrina 150 mph for La. 135 mph for Mississippi landfall.

Rita 125 mph category three at landfall.

Wilma 125 mph category three at west coast and 110-115 mph for east coast.

Ophelia 90 mph at max ontensity approaching NC Outer Banks.

Cindy 70-75 mph borderline..tough decision here.

Emily 160 mph at peak intensity in NW Carribean...upgrade to category five for 6 hour period.


This is my first post since my keyboard short circuited the other night after I posted my latest Blog. I want to offer my most sincere appreciation to all of you who left messages of congradulations and other thoughtful sentiments in this blog and in my previos blog. I didn't see them until after I couldn't respond... had to buy new keyboard tonight.:)
















"but its a hurricane force wind though"

No, it isn't. A hurricane force wind is a one minute average of more than 74 mph. A GUST IS NOT A HURRICANE FORCE WIND, EVEN IF IT'S 1000000000000mph (though that would suck).
There were stronger hurricane force wind gusts and a 71 mph sustained wind with EXTRATROPICAL Storm Delta if we wanna call it that as it moved into the Canary Islands..still doesn't make it a Hurricane...had lost its Tropical characteristics... This CA. storm has no Tropical characteristics and is also a Extratropical storm albiet a strong one. Yes a 74 mph gust is a hurricane force wind but not a hurricane force sustained wind which has to be a 1 minute average at or below 33 feet above ground level.
Actually Colby..the NHC describes a 74 mph gust as a hurricane force wind in gusts although not considered to express an area receiving hurricane force conditions unless they suspect hurricane force sustained winds also present.

The Beaufort wind scale lists a 74 mph gust as hurricane force wind... but its not hurricane force conditions unless you have the sUstained 1 minute winds at that speed or higher as indicated with Saffir-Simpson Scale.
we had hurricane force winds above 100 mph with the March Superstorm ( A powerful EXtratropical system in 1993) but wasn't a hurricane because it had NO Tropical characteristics and not one sustained wind of 74 mph or greater even if it had been purely Tropical which substantiates Colbys point.
In short...a 74 mph wind whether its from an Extratropical storm, Thunderstorm, or Tropical system is a hurricane force wind whether gust or otherwise. However, its only hurricane force conditions relative to wind speeds only if they are sustained for a one minute minimum at 33 feet or lower. Many Strong Tropical storms bring hurricane force gusts as you will read in many post storm reports but you will also read that the storm itself only had tropical storm sustained winds and they will characterize these conditions as strong tropical storm conditions.

For example, read this report that says virtually all of the South Florida region received Hurricane force sustained winds except Hendry and Glades county and they say even there those areas received hurricane force gusts which means those areas also saw hurricane force winds but not hurricane force conditions.

I will get you the link...
A survey I've set up for this amazing season.

Survey
man thanks chaser lol
Link
A Hurricane force gust is still a huricane force wind... but doesn't make any storm a hurricane even if those winds were sustained at such speeds.

So Jeff is right to say its a hurricane force wind and Colbys right to say its not hurricane conditions unless its 74 mph sustained.

hey chaser my blog is open come on over its pretty quiet in there
YW Jeff... I probably wrote too much about a small technicality..But I could see that you both were correct in your central premises.
WOW!...awesome job on the survey Colby..very impressive.:)
How are you doing David?
Ok I gotta get my little girl to bed then I wil try to find some time to update my blog which may very well be my last one for the season.:)
hey guys, are you all in good spirits now you dont have to worry about the 2005 atlantic hurricane season anymore???...lol. actually this season is far from over i think. 1-2 more named storms are entirely possible before shear rapidly increases throughout the caribbean and western atlantic in mid december
Honstly, this will not be a popular suggesion to make but here it is anyway. Theres no doubt that this season is most lkely the most active in recorded history. However, 1933 could stil be a realistic one for a tie for first.

There was no Radars, No Satellites, few ship reports, and very few if any bouys out in the Atlantic waters. Therefore, its pretty safe to assume that thee were a storm or two if not more that went unnoticed, especially in such a hyperactive season such as that one was.

In reality, the NHC just started naming subtropical storms as of the 2000 season if I'm not mistaken. Therefore, there was no doubt that there probably was a subtropical storm or two that also went unnoticed as well.

This season has seen at least two Hybrids in reality that a case could be made weren't fully tropical and in 1933 standards wouldn't have been counted in the storm totals.

However, I still believe 2005 has a slight edge but not as great as the historical records indicate.

I see where both DR. Grays website and this blog both list this season as tying the record for my most major storms in one season which isn't quite correct. The 1950 season had a remarkable 8 major hurricanes with only 13 storms overall. No season can match that with major hurricanes to named storms in proportions/percentages. Of course, 1950 probably had a storm or two go undetected as well.
I totally agree Supercell..check out Colbys survey.

I am leaning toward one more named storm with 50/50 on two.
ok I gotta go take care of the family responsibilties.. hope each of you have a GREAT NIGHT!:)

Chaser, I used a survey site for it.

New link method posted on my site, so if anyone wants to link there...



...this should do.
Interesting poll results coming in, keep voting!
hi dcw hows it going lol
hurricanechaser you got mail

look at this ever one wow

ANGEL ISLAND...82 MPH GUST
UP TO 74 MPH AT THE CALAVERAS RD
2 votes for downgrading Lee, and one for downgrading Katrina? What the...
sup DcW
you sort of sound like him with that AHC sign
I AM dcw, lol. New handle, finally got off mah dads :D
Did anyone notice that, in the summary, Ophelia's damage is almost equal to Dennis' (Ophelia $1.4 billion, Dennis $1.74 billion). To open a can of worms, does anyone here think that Ophelia's name might be retired? With a damage figure that high, I think it's possible, especially coming on the heels of Katrina.
most interesting torn, can't wait to see the final results.
Here's another interesting moment in Gray's summary~ Although most seasons between 1995-2003 were quite active, there tended to be a trough of low pressure located along the East Coast of United States which recurved most major hurricanes before they could make United States landfall. From 1995-2003, only 3 of 32 (9%) major hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic basin actually made United States landfall. However, over the past two seasons, anomalous ridging has been present along the East Coast, and 7 of 13 (54%) major hurricanes that formed have made United States landfall as major hurricanes. The climatological average based on landfalls during the 20th century is that approximately 30% of all intense hurricanes make United States landfall.
Hi again everyone. Hope everyone is haveing a good night. As for Ophelia while it did do dammage I do not think it will be retired. Reason that there are going to be so many big names to retire it might be overlooked.
Wunderground I just want to test the HTML settings on here.
86. TBA
So we had a tropical storm in February of 1952. I guess that's at least one for every month the year. So I guess Hurricane season is really never over.
I can olny relly coment on this Hurrican season Pre K b/c my house was in downtown Pass Christian. I am just tired now. Prior to August 29 I would come and read all post. This is the first time on the site since I got a computera onth or so ago and was interested to see the comments on that never ending day. to the guru: come down and drive down Hwy 90 from the pass to ocean springs. Then stop at my place and help finish going through my mud encrusted home. to FEMA: words cannot convey my utter disbelief and frustration at the lack of everything. lastly to Saphir and Simpson re-tool your catagory formula its not all win(d) baby. (sorry all raider fans)
torn~ Ophelia's kinda on a bubble, the bottom side even.
Gloria 1985~ Cape Hateras, Long Island~1.6 bil ~ 8 died.
Elania 1985~ fl & miss~ 2.7 bil~ 4 died.
Dora 1964~ Jaksonville, fl 2 bil~ 1 died.
Ione 1955~ NC 600 mil ~ 7 died.
Link
You have a point though with all the storms that hit this year, retirement would help the litigation process. Kinda like 2 in the bottom 4 above happened in the same year, same country.
i can not wait to see what we will see next hurricane year but we will see what next year will have for us
katrinaritawilmazeta I can wait
how marh longer will i have to wait for them to up date Retired Hurricane Names?

and her what i this they will up date

the K storm cat 5 at landfall
the R storm low cat 4 at land falli n TX
W storm cat 4 at land fall in fl
I would personally like to see Hurricane Ophelias name get retired because I filmed the absolute brunt of that storm..Would help me sell more DVDS.:)

But honestly, I don't see any serious consideration from the NHC actually retiring this storm. Although thjey typically retire any hurricane that causes over a Billion dollars in damage, I believe the biggest factor going against Ophelia is that it never made a true landfall. If it had, it certainly would've been retired because it would've cause far more damage as well.

ThePass, I am so sorry that you were at ground zero for that massive storm surge. I am so thankful you are still with us most importantly. I can't even begin to comprehend the burdens that you've had to endure from such a storm. The Saffir-Simpson scale is not the problem honestly, its the incredible amount of complexities that exist in Tropical Meteorology nd no scale will fit the next big storm. In reality, all Hurricanes are unique just as two snow flakes are not exactly alike. Moreover, the Saffir-Simpson scale was devised to give the public a geberal idea of what kind of damage to expect from a specific wind speed. Although certainly not perfect, it has been a huge asset since its inception. Its important to remember that the storm surge is a direct result of the velocity of the Wind. In Katrinas case, She was a powerful category five roughly 12 hours offshore and it takes awhile for that kind of surge to diminish. The thruth is it did diminish a bit, just imagine if Katrina didn't weaken. What kind of surge would she have delievered then? I still can't even comprehend a surge of 28 to 30 feet as is. Unfortunately, you can because you saw the devastation first hand. Please know that my thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.:)
COME ONE COME ALL TO THE BOLDMANS BLOG FRIENDLY ATMOSPHERE NO BIG PICS TO SLOW YA DOWNLIKE SOME OTHER BLOGS DO EVERYONE WELCOME JUST A ALL AROUND FRIENDLY PLACE TO CHAT OR HANG OUT

WITH THE MAIN LOGO BEING BE NICE TO ONE ANOTHER AND TAKE ADVICE FROM EACHOTHER
Hey David,

If I'm not mistaken (going strictly by memory), I believe the WMO (WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION will met in late March of 2006 to review all storms that a particular region, country, etc requests to be retired.

Although all of our best guesses regarding the NHCs final report on each storm captivates us and we speculate on their final intensities, its stil a guess at this point.

OIffering my personal opinion on your suggestions. I don't see the NHC making Katrina a five at landfall, nor Rita a four or Wilma a four. I do believe there might be some revisions made with each, they are than likely going to be slight modifications keeping each with their respective categories as they stand now.


hey chaser like my adviterisement
Hey Jeff...Hows it been going..get any wind out that way?:)
Its excellent and more importantly..very true! :)
yes some wind but the story is rain and lots of it lol
I will try and stop in Jeff and talk for a few after I go update what most likely will be my last blog this season.:)
nooooooooooooooooo not a last blog nooooooooooooo ok see ya later
this are a lot of records broken

Dr Jeff Masters I want to thank you for all the information that you posted I learned a lot hope to see you guys next year too
Goodmorning everyone,

Colby, loved your survey, took it this morning; hope it is not too late. I really hope this season is over but I think we will see some more storms during the "off season"; if not Dec then early next Spring. It has happened before and now we are in the "cycle" I am sure it will happen to us again. Sure hope I am wrong.

Gamma
Regarding

The strongest hurricane based on max sustained winds was Hurricane Camile in 1969 with max winds of 190 mph while Katrina, Rita and Wilma all reached a max wind of 175 mph.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196903.asp
morning folks, NHC just upgraded Epsilon to HURRICANE status!
Damn...just when you thought it was fading out...think again...Epsilon is now a HURRICANE! That makes 14. This season has gone straight off the edge into the bizarro world!
Sure did...this makes Epsilon an astonishing 14th hurricane!! And it's looking quite healthy too (at least for the current time)!

000
WTNT44 KNHC 021414
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 01/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 01/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN
TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND
NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120
HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A
SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING
ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A
LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS
SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
... this means the most hurricanes in a single season record now stands at 14 (for 2005), not 13 as Dr. Jeff set out in yesterday's post...
10am Eppy became a Hurricane.....2 days after end of season....
OPPS sorry about that , I see you all also saw the early 10am report! LOL
I don't think this hurricane season is ever going to end...just hope it gives us a break during Christmas and New years before we have to board up again!
Just give us time to get our outside Christmas decorations up and back down again without blowing them away!
Hi everyone. Yesterday I said that the rain would stay in Northern California and I was right. Not a drope of rain down here. Mybe a 10th of an inch today down here where I live. Mybe a little more but nothing big. I have a fealing this is going to be a supper dry winter down here. I beleave most of the winter high perssure will controle the area with warm dry Santa Ana winds off and on for most of the winter season.
Wilma at FL landfall - the 950mb pressure reading justifies the 125 mph sustained winds; I can't see it being upgraded.
hurricane chaser the saffir simpson is useful in that regard howeverwe now have two very intense storms hiting pass christian with similar tracks camille in 69 and Katrina. I was to young to remember going through camille but did grow up amongst the destruction. you say that storm surge is a direct result of the velocity of the Wind. How do you reconcile then my home camille 190 winds 3 feet of water. Katrina 135-140 10 feet of water?
Many people stayed in the pass because here we guage hurricane by the amount of water the property recieved in camille. i.e. i only got 6inches in camille i'll be fine. the house is gone now with a less powerful storm( so they say)
the storm surge is caused by the winds of the hurricane during a long time period, not just at landfall. katrina was an extremely powerful cane out in the gulf for a while. this allowed the water to pile up in advance of the storm's path.
Interesting pic of the big board at the NHC...note the max winds for Wilma...now at 185...and they already have a line ready for Zeta...heh heh...

Link
Hey everyone,

Good morning.:)

Theres a new blog posted by Dr. Masters.
and camille wasn't??? look at the tracks and intensity of both storms. was is that the overall size of katrina made the difference low tide vs high tide. I understand the science behind storm surge. in light of the two drastic outcomes of camille and katrina i am aksing if the science should be re-evaluated.
Should not a summary of the season include information on the typhoons that hit China and Vietnam, and Tropical Cyclone Baaz which is still out there and about to hit India? Has it been unusually bad all over the world?
121. Gael
Once-in-500-year season? Hmmm... I reserve judgement until we see what the next few years bring. We may have passed the tipping point for climatic warming. Our records cover only an instant of geological time, and climate has changed drastically at many times in the past, sometimes even faster than what we're seeing now.

(Note to grammarphobes: the rule is to join words with hyphens when the group is used as one modifier, in this case as an adjective, and no, I'm not an English teacher.)
122. Inyo
Posted By: lightning10 at 3:21 PM GMT on December 02, 2005.
Hi everyone. Yesterday I said that the rain would stay in Northern California and I was right. Not a drope of rain down here. Mybe a 10th of an inch today down here where I live. Mybe a little more but nothing big. I have a fealing this is going to be a supper dry winter down here. I beleave most of the winter high perssure will controle the area with warm dry Santa Ana winds off and on for most of the winter season.


Maybe... dry years do tend to come after wet years. We only got less than a tenth too. However, there are other indications, things are pretty crazy everywhere this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we got some large, unusual storms this year. The old timers i've talked to seem pretty split on whether it will be wet or dry, and apparently so is the NWS. My gut feeling is december will be dry until after xmas, and then in janurary we will have a few storms worth talking about. Also, it should be rather windy and cold in December... and there could be a fire somewhere if we don't get more rain. we will see though
You missed a year. 2004 also had 3 major hurricane landfalls in the U.S (Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne).

Also, I'm not sure if Delta should count, because it was extratropical when it hit the Canary Islands.

All in all, it was definitely an incredbile, once in a lifetime season. Lets hope we never see a season like this again...