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The tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2005

Just a quick update on the tropics this morning, and I hope to post more on Katrina later today.

The most significant threat in the tropics is the potential on Sunday or Monday for a tropical depression to develop in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This is the same location that Katrina developed. This development would occur at the tail end of a cold front that is expected to push off of the East Coast. The latest GFS model run is showing two possible areas of formation, one near Bermuda, and one near the east coast of Florida. If a depression does form near the east coast of Florida, the likely track would be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. If formation occurs closer to Bermuda, the likely track would be northeastward away from land. I think it is unlikey that two systems would form in the this region; the energy for storm formation will probably concentrate in one area and create one storm. Let's hope that if this occurs, the formation region will be closer to Bermuda and the storm will head out to sea.


Figure 1. GFS forecast for 2am Monday, showing two possible locations a tropical depression may form.

Tropical Depression Lee is nothing to worry about, it is too far north to have a chance at affecting land, and is suffering from shear that will keep it weak or potentially dissipate it over the next few days. The well-organized wave 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is looking better organized today. The shear over it is relaxing, the dry air on its west side has decreased some, and deep convection is starting to build on the north side. This system will probably become Tropical Depression 14 later today, but its relatively northerly location and northwesterly motion make this system no threat to land. This system will probably recurve out to sea. The most significant threat in the tropicas may be from the tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This system is far enough south, near latitude 9N, that it will not get recurved out to sea by the mid-Atlantic trough. The tropical wave is currently in a region of strong enough shear that development will not occur, but this shear is expected to relax by Saturday as the wave continues westward over the open Atlantic. As was the case with yesterday's model runs, the GFS forecasts that this wave will become a major hurricane and a potentially threaten the Leeward Islands a week from now.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

here go to this link. put ur mouse over the vis image and storm info will show up over ur mouse point. thats why i love the nvay site

Link
Why is that, Jedkins? What's so different in that part of the world?
I heard it earlier on CNN also
Hi all, back online after work. From Jeff's posting I need to re-iterate that any system off the Florida East Coast should be shrugged off until something is actually there. As of now, just some T-Storm activity South of Bermuda. Shear over Florida and areas South of Bermuda is high right now but could relax in about 3 days.Link

I agree on the system he notes that is midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands that is located South of 10N. This system will move quickly towards the Northern Leeward Islands by early next week and will be a system to watch closely.

Most likely scenario would be to see a system named Nate talked about after Labor Day. Link
I still am for bush and yes,there are some things I don't agree with,but being wishy washy like that isn't a good Idea.
LIKE I SAUD I DONT GIVE A DAM ABOUT GAS GO OPEN YOUR OWN BLOG FOR THAT THIS IS WEATHER NOT POLITICS
The over all pressure is lower too begin with and I am not completely sure why but it is but it is still a very, very low pressure reading,and is a category 5.....
Now I can focus on the others left behind on the gulf coast and the tropics. The tropics come second right now. I am still praying for all the others and I will help in any way I financially can.
the WESTPAC also knows how to build for these storms. Their building codes (exp: Guam) are so much more stringent than even those here in Miami-Dade County that it is shameful. May not make for the prettiest buildings but they withstand one heck of alot more windstorm damage. Now, the bowl effect of NO is a problem unique to the City itself and, say, the Netherlands...
511. iyou
007 - great news!!
yeah 79 thats what i said earlier. i think that maria will be from td 14 in 36 hrs befor she becomes a fish storm but nate will be a monster in 5 days. i think it will go north of the islands and probly affect the east coast from florida to va somewhere in there but that is a crazy prediction way to off for any confidence
513. OBXER
77 it seems that if Blancos #s are right the whole scope of evacuating and recuing those people traped changes dramatically.
Hey guys....not to be picky, but when you post something that may be breaking or new or serious, please report the source like I try to do..

WWL TV - blah blah blah
MSNBC - blah blah frickity blah
etc.

Not because I don't think you're making it up, but if the rest of us want to get the details, it's hard unless we know where to go. A link is even nicer.

Paully
Jeff, you are so immature, stop yelling like a spoiled child.
I suggest that since we can't ban him, we ignore him from now on.
It took him two days after the storm to return to Wash Jed. That is not acceptable. I have defended the fact that he will take more vacation than any other Pres. No longer. He has lost me on this one.

"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien.
and that super typhoon is forcasted to get even stronger. wow what a storm
for the record, I just flagged jeff as obscene for calling me an unpleasant word.
The over all pressure is lower too begin with and I am not completely sure why but it is but it is still a very, very low pressure reading,and is a category 5.....

Very low. I can't even imagine the 875 MB monsters they have every couple of years.
That Hurricane in the east pacific may it japan as a category 5...40 miles across is the eye.
Look familiar?

This is out of the Western Pacific, with Korean 7ish days out.

Anyway, I can see we're going for the "bitching and moaning" world record, so back to it. Regardless of what I might think of the competence of the government's response, I don't think it's a particularly intelligent decision to call for their heads during the crisis. In fact, I might go so far as to say that trying to undermine the only entity that CAN do anything at all is a silly idea. But, who knows, maybe venting frustration in this fashion is healthy.

Is there a scientific reason for why the PAC gets more and stronger storms than the ATL? EASTPAC always starts two weeks earlier and I don't understand that either...
my blog has been updated. it is about the latest cyclones in the atlantic.
cgable

Your out of line with that comment. why don't you go drive

around the block. then come back and talk weather.
Link

Turning wnw in 144 hours. Still too early to call right now.
warmer waters. thats it
THANK YOU WABIT ITS TIME THERES PEOPLE GOT TAUGHT A LESSON IN NOT TALKING ABOUT GAS AND START TALING ABOUT WEATHER LIKE THIS BLOG WAS DESINGED TO DO
Look familiar?

This is out of the Western Pacific, with Korean 7ish days out.


It does resemble Katrina. But the eye is bigger, and the storm is stronger, and still getting stronger, and it appears to be alot bigger mass wise as well. If that hit instead of Katrina there would be nothing left of NO, or those areas in Miss.
furstie, we're stuck with them for now.
But, boy would I like to be a fly on the wall during the many debriefings that will come in the months ahead.
I imagine there will be a commission much as there was the 9-11 Commission, this will take years to sort out. Just as this failure to respond quickly isn't something that happened due to the last few months, a few months won't do the job in figuring out the failure...
yeah weather watcher. some models start the wnw sooner and u should check out the gfdl. i think this monster will hit something. if she gets into the gulf good lord. but if she goes north of the islands there will be a building ridge of high pressure that would not alow it to recurve. the stage is being set for another possible major cane making landfall on the us in 7-9 days
yeah weather watcher. some models start the wnw sooner and u should check out the gfdl. i think this monster will hit something. if she gets into the gulf good lord. but if she goes north of the islands there will be a building ridge of high pressure that would not alow it to recurve. the stage is being set for another possible major cane making landfall on the us in 7-9 days

I'm not ready to predict any major hurricane. But I do see the east coast in the early stages of being set up.
wabit, don't know how long YOU'VE been online so will assume you're just tuning in... jeff is yelling and being rude. We'll just see how it sorts out.
Great suggestion too, the gov't calls for us to conserve gas and you tell me to go drive around the block!!! LOL
007, still way too early. The main differencs in models that I am seeing is whether or not the large weakness in the ridge near Bermuda that is forecast to be there between 3 to 7 days from now, fills in. There is a strong ridge forecast to build over the US at 5 days. We'll see what happens.
not sop carbo. that storm is smaller around a camile size. wind field is nowhere neasr close to katrina and right now its weaker than katrina was at her peak. that ia 160mph storm katrina was a 175 upuntil 12 hrs befor landfall
Understood lefty. But I'm not trying to start a separate discussion for the sake of those of us (you and I)who want to discuss the aftermath. I'm doing it for the sake of those who might like to use Dr. Masters' blog as a break from the constant bombardment of media images.

So I'll make one last effort. No need to discuss the topic I suggest. It's just an option to get a discussion started.

Discuss Katrina's Aftermath.
thx obx, appreciate it
the gfdl makes her 140 kts at flight level in 4 days. thats well above the 115 needed to be a major hurricane
539. OBXER
Lefty which system are you talking about?
Lefty, I was talking stronger as in pressure wise, and the fact it's still getting stronger.
lefty, is the PAC THAT much warmer than the ATL?
Oh no, say it ain't so

Link
yeah 79 and that weakness is determned by the formation of a cyclone near florida. if it moves north the weakness might be left behind her. if she moves into the gulf there would be no weakness
lefty, is the PAC THAT much warmer than the ATL?

They East Pac has Gulf/Carribean type warm water over a much bigger area. Plus the atmosphere conditions are a little different. I'm guessing that's why storms get worse there/
For those of you complaining about the political talk. The weather has just had the largest impact on our society in years. They have just become very well linked. I will be back on the tropics as soon as North American Landmass is in threat. After that threat is going I will go back to the Kat aftermath. THe weather and politics and gas and death and the economy have just become linked so closely that it is inavoidable to deal with the situation we are in. I think that those of you that want to move on either are to ignorant or young to understand what this 1 tropical system has done to our way of life.

I am out. I need a break and after that I will be back to discuss whatever NEEDS to be talked about.
Katrina was huge in the gulf 175 mph winds 902mb,hurricane force wind field was 220 miles acroos out in the gulf as it was a 5,tropical storm winds about 410 miles across.And the cat 5 winds were 50 miles across....The strorm in the pacific actually appears a bit smaller to me accept for the eye.
Exactly Lefty, that is why I suggest that the possibility of a system forming East of LForida should be dismissed unless it actually happens (at least a system of significance). A weak low off Florida will not create an extended weakness in the ridge.
oh yeah i feel you on that carbo but she is markedly smaller storm. the size of katrina aided her destruction.

and yes the pacific is hoter and has more heat content than the atl but that hot water and heat content weakens as u get into the central and eastern pacific, which is why u don't see hurricanes hitting california
carbo, thx, didn't realize it was that much warmer, that makes it a bathtub.
wow 79 me and u are seeing things the same. lets watch and see what happens as long as it stays away from the gulf lol
hey you guys, away from the US. All resources are in the GULF!!! That's where we need to be!!!
you know after katrina for atleast 2 days i was so sick i didn't even want to look at the tropics. i did for the first time last night and that second storm, the one in the itcz right now looks scary
cgableshurrycanegal... You're welcome, but coreection. I meant West Pac as opposed to east pac. The east pac basin is very small compared to the west, and even atlantic as far as development area.
yeah, itcz is a bad breeding ground
finally weather talk
I've always been fascinated with the Pacific/Australian hurricane seasons. Now, if you want to talk massive storm, look at Typhoon Tip from the late 70s. I've always wished I could find more information on that one.

On the other end of the spectrum is super small but power packed Cyclone Tracy. The GALE wind radius (not even hurricane) of that storm was a mere 25 miles from the eye.

I spent an entire day looking through all the weird storms a few months ago, fascinating stuff.
man there is a system in their now that just looks good. as it moves west it will get better upper enviroment and could really take off. the gfdl looks scary
It seems like in the west pacific MOST of the time the storms are significantly weaker when they make landfall, not sure why though....
Yea, Furstie. Typhoon Tip was the strongest, and largest storm ever. 200 MPH winds, and a record 870 MB pressure. It was also thousands of miles in size. It's said that if the eye of tip made landfall in Miami, places as far north as Charlotte north carolina would be getting tropical storm winds.

Crap 870 mb,190 mph winds...1350 MILES ACROSS!
wow gas hit 3.69 in my area
True lefty, away from the Gulf is good.. I am watching the GFS 18Z come in right now and it creates a zonal flow over the US and atlantic by day 7. This may allow ridges to fill in and bring the eventually closer. We will wait and see though. Link
not gas agian and its was getting to weather lefty you have to ruin it always
that couldbe headed for the south east us say northern florida,ga, or sc
Looks like main factor for the system is still the development of a low off the East Florida Coast, models react significantly to it with respect to the upper level flow. So, we will need to wait and see the model trends.
wow now they say 10 not 8 refineries are down and no sign when they will be back up
yeah 79 that was what i was saying earlier today.its a watch and see thing cause all ofit depends on somethings that may never happen
This will likely be my last blog of the day (work I have to do) so please listen.

I would like to thank everyone who prayed for the safety of my aunt. She is fine and will likely stay in CT until she is able to return to NOLA safely.

I fervently pray that a significant amount of help arrives along the gulf coast to help the refugees.

We have to watch the tropics.

Bye.
Turn on NBC right now
catch u later weather watcher
571. OBXER
Hey Jeffy read Jeff Masters latest report and by the way LIMEDILLIGAF LOL
cgables

so did you get my point? I had no right to tell you,, as

you did not have the right to say what you did to jeff!!!
what were they saying
Hello all, I have been lurking here since Sunday and want to thank everyone for all the info and updating as much as you do. Through all the political talk and personal bickering that occurs too often on any internet discussion a great deal of good information was exchanged and I learned a ton about hurricanes and what causes them and the termonology. Saying all that I wanted to let everyone know the is a new Blog Entry by Dr. Jeff Masters.
wow that man is a god. he has a big heart. huy in houston is hosting 20 evacuess in his home. he helpedto get peopleout befor the storm hit
I've been reading this blog and offer the following comments:
This is a blog about tropical cyclones. If you want to bash our president, our military, or complain about gas prices, then go somewhere else.
My father is currently working in the FEMA command center, so I have a few insights. In case you've forgotten, this hurricane hit southern Florida first. FEMA deployed its resources there, then had to reposition them once they figured out where Katrina was going to hit the second time. The people of New Orleans were told to evacuate and many didn't. They were told to get to a shelter and many didn't. Now many of them are behaving like animals. Why has relief appeared to be so slow in arriving? Do you think it's because all the roads in to the city were impassable? The airports are unusable. How do you propose the relief personnel and supplies get in there? As an active duty Air Force officer, I can tell you that the military is providing massive support, but it doesn't happen overnight. Again, they have to get there. And where do you propose they house and feed our troops? Facilities don't just magically appear. Let these people do their jobs and take your non-weather related opinions somewhere else.
577. OBXER
Disel read the latest update by Jeff Masters
Amen Dieselguy.
lets move this to the new blog thread people. and make sure u thasnk jeff for clearing the air about the topics we disscus during this hard time
The storm surge from katrina is just plain out amazing...up to 30 ft(not confirmed yet)and that is just crazy,and in most areas where and near the eyewall past,whatever the surge left,the wind took.
581. SMU88
Where does Dr. Masters get this GFS model? I have been to the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields website but it does have this particulat GFS model. Can anyone direct me in the right direction?
This season is definitely far from over. Please keep those updates coming...particularly worried about the wave behind TD14.
583. P682
Well stated Dieselguy!
SMU88, I do not have the colored version to Africa, but I have the N. America Colorfill. Let me know if u want the link
SMU88, I do have the non-color version of what you're looking for Link
586. SMU88
thank you hurricane79
Can someone post how to subscribe to Steve's enhanced service? Thanks
Diesel guy- You ought to poat that on auto every 15 minutes.