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The tropics go quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:20 PM GMT on June 15, 2006

Alberto has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm over the Canadian Maritime provinces today, and no new threat areas have emerged over the Atlantic that look likely to become our next tropical storm--Beryl. Wind shear increased over the Caribbean last night, tearing apart two tropical waves that were producing some strong thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity in the ITCZ off the coast of Africa remains disorganized. All of the global forecast models have backed off on forecasting tropical storm development in the next five days, although the GFS model is still predicting one or two tropical storms might form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands the last week of June. It looks like we're in for a quiet period for at least the next three days. This is good news for the 300 boats sailing from Newport, RI to Bermuda on Friday as part of the Newport Bermuda Race. Alberto cleared out just in time!

Jeff Masters
Water Spout
Water Spout
Water spout over Bogue Sound spawned by the remnants of Alberto
Storm Surge
Storm Surge
This photo was taken at low tide. I went back around high tide and could not get anywhere close to get another photo. Based on the water level at the highway i would say the water ended up around 3 feet higher than shown in this picture.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

spelled "transitioned" wrong Dr. Masters......sorry, just had to point that out....
Afternoon a, butll. On vacation at the beach, but wanted .to stop in and say hello.

Ya'll have a great day looks like a little time before we have anything else to watch

Great info @ StormJunkie.com

See ya
My compliments to Weather Underground for adding the LDAT (lightning data) to the radar display. This is a remarkably useful graphic. Thanks!

Mike Lee
Senior Chief
USN, retired.
Playing favorites Alec? Fine him the $ 5 !
OK Dr. Masters, I thought about it for a bit but since you still haven't corrected your spelling error you pay every blogger a penny and pay the $5 fine....LOL
He fixed it.
well done Dr. Masters I am very proud of you....LOL
Dr. Masters,
The tropics went quiet after Alberto cut your vacation short. That's the way it always goes...LOL
--Shameless Plug---

I am having a informal TS prediction contest going on at my blog. Come sign up the contest begins as soon as Beryl shows up. There are different catagories so you don't have to predict every storm.

Also I am trying to get a headcount of people on here running similar contest on or offsite if you can please email me here so maybe we can get together and find a common ground not to step on anyone's feet.


--End Plug--
11. Alec
yup...when the cat goes away the mice begin to play!LOL
On another topic, I don't think that this year will have a very lot of tornadoes anymore; as you can see here, activity has fallen greatly and the number for 2004 has passed this year's numbers (for the same point in time).
if Berly forms in the last week of June then i'm convince that 2006 is following 2005.

Tropical storm bret formed around june 28........
I'd agree with you Michael. I think the only way we'll have a lot of tornadoes is if they are hurricane-spawned ones, or if we have an unusual number of fall outbreaks. It's been a weird tornado season.
15. Alec
Beryl*.....$5 bucks please! Ok im gone...have a great day!:).........ALEC..OUT!!!
There may be a relationship with last year; tornadoes need a strong jet stream (wind shear) to develop and the pattern has been similar to last year (except for more activity in March and April); as for June, it is too early to tell what will happen yet. The main thing to note is that both years had a similar pattern in tornado activity and both years also had the first tropical storm form at about the same time.
Hey Guys,

Do you want a palce to chat about weather, climatology, earth sciences and Astro-Meteorology? Then come here:


And chat with memebrs all over the US!
All I can say is, enjoy this little break in the tropical action. Once it gets busy, it will stay busy for a long time.
Just in from work. Very short day. LOL
Alec, we all make typing mistakes, you too! I have seen yours when no one says anything. We type faster sometimes than our minds follow. Something to keep in mind.
Who said Dr. M cut his vacation short? The internet works very well folks and he does have staff working for him.
Dr. M, I for one, do hope that you didn't cut it short!!! You deserved an entire vacation. Give the man a break! How quickly we forget, and how self serving we are at times.....
Tropics quiet for a few days? Hallelujah!!!!!
Hi Code,
Meant no offense. He deserves every minute of his vacation.
got some facts to back that statement denver??

Posted By: DenverMark at 5:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2006.
All I can say is, enjoy this little break in the tropical action. Once it gets busy, it will stay busy for a long time.

got some facts to back that statement denver??

Posted By: DenverMark at 5:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2006.
All I can say is, enjoy this little break in the tropical action. Once it gets busy, it will stay busy for a long time.

The GFS is still indicating that something may try to develop in about 3 days (at the least, a low). Link
Oh, that would be from the tropical wave that is currently located at 26-27W.
hello all, glad to hear that the tropics will be kind to the Nation for a while, lets hope it lasts.
27. AZ
Those who are so interested in FACTS might want to look at this rather than just stating their opinions as if they were indisputable.


ROFLMAO... AZ check the dates on most of his references... lots from early 90's most from late 90's... that article doesnt hold much weight bro...
to completely discount that WE (humans) are destroying our planet.. in my humble opinion is about as ignorant and arrogant as it gets
Mark, not directed at you at all!!! :-)
31. AZ
I'm thinking you miss my point. Were the polar ice caps to make a sudden departure, as you stated in a previous post, the volumne of water released into the oceans and the subsequent rise in their levels might be a serious cause for concern. Somehow, I fail to see folks in Florida heading to higher ground in preparation for the soon to be submerged state of their residences. Or perhaps you are questioning the gentleman's calculations regarding the volumne of water contained in these ice caps and the effect such a volumne of water melting might have on ocean levels. I expect the calculations done regarding the amount of frozen water might have been as valid ten years ago as they are today since our systems of weights and measures has remained fairly constant. The point is, don't make pronouncements that have no merit.
Actually, not directed to anyone in particular. Just so tired of seeing those not in cane alley, living and breathing, for the next wave. You know who you are. Not an attack, I love to watch them as well. Just very tired of the kids here (not all), saying every wave will turn into a cane or talking about their tornadoes. Give it a rest boys, while we can!!! There is other weather to talk about.
In my thinking, melting ice caps is by far the least of our concerns; for example, notice how this map shows that warmer water = more intense hurricanes.
34. WSI
"There is other weather to talk about."

Indeed. How about the heat this weekend? My area will be above average on the daytime highs. Too bad I have to work Saturday. :(

I was just commenting on Michael's observations about last year and this year being similar with regards to tornadoes and the formation of the first tropical storm. I do think one year's patterns tend to carry over to the next to some degree. Also, most every prediction I've seen is for a busy season. Maybe not as hyperactive as last year. I'd be happy to be wrong. No one needs any more death and destruction after the last two years.
Indeed, I will have heat too; it is expected to be in the mid-90s tomorrow with 70 degree dewpoints and the NWS even makes mention of possible heat advisories (the forecast discussion is posted in my blog).
Thanks Dr. Masters was such a drastic change in the whole Atlantic in just one day. Looked like a new place!

I guess two areas of interest now would be the low and remnants of circulation moving into the Gulf off Cuba and the other one a low system?? 58w 23 n that seems to be coming this way?? Is anyone else seeing different?
Posted By: code1 at 5:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2006.
Just in from work. Very short day. LOL
Alec, we all make typing mistakes, you too! I have seen yours when no one says anything. We type faster sometimes than our minds follow. Something to keep in mind.

He is only doing it for fun.
Oops sorry forgot the water vapor loop.
Is that not almost orange air in the gulf? Its a miracle, I might actually be able to see a cloud or two. I don't know how i would act though, since ive forgotton what they look like.
there aint jack poop out there
code..I'm with you.I'm sure it is fascinating to those not in the strike zones to track these waves and predict them i am not sure they realize just how harrowing it is for us who do live here when these things threaten...no offence to anyone as I rely on all your input to help me better prepare for whats coming.
Oh lou, I know! Alec and I are good friends. Just a bit far at times. PBG, those not in the cone will never understand. Those of us here can't explain why we stay either. Double edged sword here. Me? I take paradise any day!!!!
We love it here..especially when family calls from new york in January freezing their a##es off and we are sippin cocktails on the dock!
PBG, I agree that it is a bit harrowing to find some people in here that predict that every wave will develop into a major tropical event, especially when we live in a high risk area and have been recently affected by several of these events. (In my case Emily, Stan and Wilma last year... Wilma for three whole days!!!)

However, I can understand that weather enthusiasts can, in fact, get quite enthusiastic!!!

Nevertheless, I do enjoy the discussions in here and I have found that there are indeed very informed and well balanced people in this forum. Basically, I read all the discussions, consider all the information and come away better informed of what may happen and why.

To all those who post in here: Thank You!! Keep it up!
I agree Cancun!

Hey {{all}} :-) Hope you are having a great day!
Stormtop is probably one of the worst when it comes to overplaying every single tropical disturbance - he always says that they will turn into Category 5 hurricanes hitting New Orleans (because that is where he lives, or as somebody told me). I only mention the ones that models show developing (such as when the CMC was showing a tropical storm in the Gulf a week before Alberto developed). In that regard, the thing at 58 W, 23 N that JFlorida mentions is nothing; no models show anything there, whether developing or forecast.
AZ same goes for you...I really can't beleive you've got the balls to argue this .you must be missing my point.. at this rate... its not a matter of IF but when... unless we make drastic changes to the way we live our lives this planet can not sustain US. I would be shocked if Florida actually fell off in my lifetime.. that was more of a longer term result that will definately come to pass unless like i said drastic global changes are made... Hopefully it won't take something as drastic as Florida's penensula falling off!!
Well said PBG and cancun. After all, it is why we are all here. Hiyas Katie!
Tropical systems are a good exhibition I moved out of the state for a while and really missed them. They are the predominant weather systems in the summer, in the tropics. They make the tropics the tropics. Ill admit it. The ornate interaction is a fun watch too because of its sublimity. I remember my great grandmother telling me about the old storms. In one, while she was visiting the light keeper and relatives on St George, back in the day, she talked about a storm coming up out of nowhere they thought they would die in. All night they weathered it. The next day there were brightly colored birds all over the island tropical ones they didnt usually see - taken up by the storm, killed by the cold, and deposited all over the island. Actually with the Florida I grew up in almost gone; to quaint-ish tacky suburban development, strip malls and retirement communities they along with precious few alcoves and individuals are really the only unchanging constant in this area.

Cancun..this was the last sentence in my post..i DO APPRECIATE ALL the imput on this sight..I rely on it..
(no offence to anyone as I rely on all your input to help me better prepare for whats coming)
Hey there C :-) You off early today? Lucky thing! Boss stepped out.. Blog time..
If you are correct, thank God I live in the panhandle. WUBA's alert!!! Ya got a place to run or swim to. LOL
Not making fun here, it is a scary scenario, I agree.
Does anyone have a comment on the convection in the gulf? Per the NHC Discussion:

"...a plume of moisture is advected
from the Caribbean and east Pacific into the central Gulf of
Mexico. A sfc trough is embedded in this moisture plume along
24n93w to 18n95w. This trough is enhancing showers and tstms
from 19n-26n between 89w-95w. Buoy 42055 reported 30 kt winds in
one of the tstms near the trough axis."

The sheer is forecast to weaken a bit after 24 hours and a June storm in the gulf can be a force to reckon with (ie: June '05, TS Allison 1 and 2, and Hurricane Allison)
JFlorida, back in the late 60's and early 70's, there was no such thing as blogs, internet, early warnings, etc. Only the long timers we relied upon. My dog at the time (before neutering became the norm) went out, refused to come in, and had her babies in a hole she dug under a car. My Dad went out as soon as possible though, to save her and the pups. Thanks God, he did. Flooded the car on the back side where she was!!
56. AZ
falling off?????? what are you talking about? look up the word submerged.

I am not saying we do not have environmental problems but when you make a comment as foolish as the one you made regarding the fact, as you stated it, that the polar ice caps would all be gone in ten years I felt compelled to respond. And yes, being submerged is one of those slight problems that would be a result of such an occurrence.
OneDay, follow the discussion and Dr. Master's. Until there is a reason to, no worries :-)
Thank you, code1. No worries, just trying to prognosticate way (foolishly) in advance. Truth is, I'm in Houston and I heard the convection in the gulf was going to become a cat 6 and strike New Orleans.

Caveat to last comment...not trying to make light of the seriousness of these storms and certainly not Katrina...just being playful.
OneDay, humor is good!!
Category 6. :eek:

Looks like I better get another diary going!!!
that's juST what i waS Thinking.
the thing is, volcanic activity has always been part of the carbon cycle. digging up huge quantities of stored carbon in the form of coal, gas, and oil, and then burning them, is a recent addition to the cycle, causing it to change.
Yea code the animals act strange the big spiders, birds and reptiles too. I dont want to sound too crazy but the storms seem almost alive. Just the in way you feel. Those that have been near them know what Im talking about. The cyclones at their centers probably have been around almost forever but then in one way or another everything has too I guess.
Watch out for Stormtop (he is the one who says stuff like "Category 6 hitting New Orleans", at least from what I have heard about him).

On another topic, lightningbolt needs help (I don't know about his problem).
PBG: I understood your post as appreciative of all the discussions and information. I was just agreeing with you. Best regards!
rwdobson - That is exactly true; also, volcanoes produce gases that act to cool down the Earth; in fact, the net effect of volcanoes is cooling (a classic example occurred in 1816, the "year without a summer").
OK then az W.T.F are you raving about?? ... get your facts straight before you open your mouth or at the very least dont put words into mine..

you dont believe me?? look it up your obviously capable of looking up B.S. info and posting it on here.. go find something relevant and quit acting your the only person who knows anything on here.... you must be like 14....
Michael, until you have been here an entire season, this IS a tropical blog after all, keep your opinions until you can form your own. ST has his detractors and his and his praisers as well.
Too much time on the blogs. Can't even form a coherent sentence. Sorry Alec! LOL Fine at will!! See ya'll later.
Regarding global warming, it is true that volcanoes produce vastly more greenhouse gases than human activities do, but I think that is part of the Earth's natural balance. The atmosphere (and oceans) absorbed our contributions for many years without the climate being significantly affected, but in the last 10-20 years we are starting to upset the balance enough to see much greater changes in the climate. Just my humble opinion, and I have no hard feelings toward anyone who disagrees. At any rate, why not work to reduce the use of fossil fuels? They are still non-renewable resources that are not going to last forever.
4. Will Arctic ice melt have any effects beyond the polar region?

Yes -- the contraction of the Arctic ice cap is accelerating global warming. Snow and ice usually form a protective, cooling layer over the Arctic. When that covering melts, the earth absorbs more sunlight and gets hotter. And the latest scientific data confirm the far-reaching effects of climbing global temperatures.

Rising temperatures are already affecting Alaska, where the spruce bark beetle is breeding faster in the warmer weather. These pests now sneak in an extra generation each year. From 1993 to 2003, they chewed up 3.4 million acres of Alaskan forest.

Melting glaciers and land-based ice sheets also contribute to rising sea levels, threatening low-lying areas around the globe with beach erosion, coastal flooding, and contamination of freshwater supplies. (Sea level is not affected when floating sea ice melts.) At particular risk are island nations like the Maldives; over half of that nation's populated islands lie less than 6 feet above sea level. Even major cities like Shanghai and Lagos would face similar problems, as they also lie just six feet above present water levels.

Rising seas would severely impact the United States as well. Scientists project as much as a 3-foot sea-level rise by 2100. According to a 2001 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study, this increase would inundate some 22,400 square miles of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
A warmer Arctic will also affect weather patterns and thus food production around the world. Wheat farming in Kansas, for example, would be profoundly affected by the loss of ice cover in the Arctic. According to a NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies computer model, Kansas would be 4 degrees warmer in the winter without Arctic ice, which normally creates cold air masses that frequently slide southward into the United States. Warmer winters are bad news for wheat farmers, who need freezing temperatures to grow winter wheat. And in summer, warmer days would rob Kansas soil of 10 percent of its moisture, drying out valuable cropland.

74. AZ
just stated the obvious as to what is FACTAULLY happening to our planet as we speak.. no denying the fact that at this current rate in aprox 10 years our polar ice caps will be all but gone

I will try not to put words in your mouth any more. Rave on young man. I will leave the conversation now as it is clearly disintegrating.
Probably the worst thing that has happened to people, western inspired humanity in general, is that they are so afraid of making mistakes they hide in formal specialization and, are, so right always about one particular specific thing that they become completely wrong about everything else even in what they suspect they know . Postmodernism unfortunately has strengthened this trend. But I came here to make mistakes and talk about something I know nothing about, for the summer at least.

Look at the tip of Yucatan on IR is that some sheared off moisture from one of the lows? That would put the low itself in the channel now.
hello everybody
Ok..here is a thought..just a thought...but in the burst Alberto had the day before landfall, I believe that the surface low adjusted under that burst, and left the "old" low retreating back into the gulf. Is it possible that the little convection we see in the gulf is part of that "old" surface low? Also, in looking at the WV, I see how this area is teleconnected to the trough in the Atlantic which always gets my attention in the Caribbean/Gulf this time of year..seems to be a factor in other developments I have seen. Dunno..could be way off, but this might be just a little interesting.
As far as I know, models are not interested in anything right now; for example, there is nothing in the Atlantic on the 12z GFS run (the thing by Panama is almost always there).
hey guys...long time poster....my wife's company is finally off the ground today!!


Think outside the cone.....background checks included in membership. Just in case you have nowhere in mind to go during a big storm.... I am not here to promote or sell you anything....just this is my little cane hide- out during season and I thought I would share it with you all for comments. We have had some very favorable press so far.
SJ we need to link up. I will not hound you guys
Have they adjusted the models for Alberto doing what it did? It looks as if everything at all levels has changed.

Speak of the devil look at the pressure at our favorite buoy!
AZ scroll up kid (AZ) maybe youll learn soemthing ... and would take a 14 yr old not to recognize SARCASIM when he sees it...
very well said denver i agree.. just cant stand the kids that come on here wanna argue about something they kknow NOTHING about .. get proven WRONG and leave...
left for a bit there...Cancun, Thanks! Just wanted to make sure I was not misunderstood..things get a bit sensative here at times. Have a great afternoon.check back in later.
The polar ice cap as a whole is shrinking. Images from NASA satellites show that the area of permanent ice cover is contracting at a rate of 9 percent each decade. If this trend continues, summers in the Arctic could become ice-free by the end of the century.

folks, that major blob of convection north of Panama has been there for at least the last day and if anything is growing and intensifying..
computer models aren't spinning anything up any time soon(sigh of relief)
87. AZ
just stated the obvious as to what is FACTAULLY happening to our planet as we speak.. no denying the fact that at this current rate in aprox 10 years our polar ice caps will be all but gone

You really are amazing.
Houstonian, current predictions are actually that summers will be ice-free at the arctic WITHIN 15 YEARS!!! This is being tracked very closely up here in Canada as it has huge implications for northern Canadian communities, ecosystems, and global weather patterns..
Buhdog - nice idea. Keep us informed on how it flies.
Houstonian...if the effects of warming caused by globalization of industry through the corporate model are factored in, it is much less than a century, much less.
BTW Buhdog - start a blog to keep us informed - otherwise it'll just get lost..:)
Thank you snowboy .. try telling AZ that... that joker wants to deny the obvious..
I have often noticed that models often show a cyclone developing near Panama, but it is almost always marked as a future cyclone, as if they can't get a good grip on it (it also usually shows a path that has it stay more or less in one place). A tropical wave could interact with it and create something more significant, as with Alberto (the NOGAPS had Alberto start in the same location as the low in my link above).
Thanx Stormy....it has been 2 years of my wife working out of our lil bedroom...self teaching herself about patents...servicemarks...web development. I am proud of her vision and compassion for humanity. The Idea was born in the powerlessness of CHARLIE.
The polar ice cap as a whole is shrinking. Images from NASA satellites show that the area of permanent ice cover is contracting at a rate of 9 percent each decade. If this trend continues, summers in the Arctic could become ice-free by the end of the century.
AZ FYI .. this was PASTED from HERE .. go argue with these guys .. idiot
good idea stormy...I will tonight when I get back from "my" job
Watch that buoy and the vis! Whats left of the tropical wave is moving in now
Don't forget that another consequence of warming is more powerful hurricanes. Notice that I said is, not may be; these maps explain why.
I think it is interesting to see that new wave off Africa stay fairly developed....
Yes Michael.. thats the WHOLE reason I started posting that here today (more powerful hurricanes).. all ive gotten is uneducated arguement until recently.. but it really, would seem that more powerful hurricanes should be the least of our worries for right now... in 10 years we will be past the point of no return and reversal may not even be possible..
Something interesting on those maximum potential intensity maps: they indicate that 80 degree (26.5 C) water is not needed to support hurricanes; this means that Epsilon and Vince were not really freak events (although I don't know what the potential intensity maps were like when they occurred).
That blob north of Panama is looking more impressive with every UV and IR update, and now we've got convection going in the Gulf too. Shear is dropping everywhere and things are getting juicy - all that's needed for development is something to add a little spin to these blobs.
And from the lower Yucatan the lower wave is entering.
there is a computer model that is predicting a storm. the 0z run of the cmc(the model that correctly predicted Alberto many days before it formed) is now predicting a storm froming north of the islands ( virgin/ p.r.) and moving north towrds Bermuda. 12Z starts to form storm but does not go out far enough to show movement. the nogaps is also hinting at this developement. o canada o canada
I made note of what the CMC shows in my blog; also, there are three tropical waves that shows some degree of cyclonic turning.
The NWS is throwing a wet blanket on it all but there is a lot going on.

205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

I posted this before, but it is significant - there is NO dry air from Africa (water vapor). In fact, the air over Africa has a lot more moisture than that over the southern U.S!
It appears as if the "disturbance" in the gulf is trying to consolidate into a depression. It sure is getting its act together in a hurry.
yes i agree LSUHurricaneHunter it has some potential we will just have to wait and see what happens
If this year is say, 3/4 as active as last year (21 storms) and is a Cape Verde season, I can easily see it produce an incredibly high ACE, maybe well over 300, since Cape Verde storms last for a long time; this is possible if Africa stays wet and there is no dry air. By the way, the average ACE per storm last year was near normal because very few lasted for a long time.
whats ACE?
116. PBG00
pcolabob..link for the model?
ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

I'm not sure about the NHC's tracking for the system in the gulf. They say it is moving wnw, but it is really moving nnw. It has plenty of warm water and gulf space to spin into a tropical storm.
You so sure about this whole... Lull thing Dr. M?
Here is something that I found interesting today...

... Record high temperature set for June 14th... updated
... Earliest 100 degree day in Denver weather history...

At 234 PM today the temperature at Denver International Airport
reached 101 degrees. The temperature continued to climb and reached
102 degrees at 427 PM. This is a new record high temperature for
this date. The old record of 99 degrees was set in 1994.

The 102 degree temperature is also the earliest that the 100
degree mark has been reached in any year. The previous first 100
degree day of the year occurred on June 23rd 1954 when the
temperature hit 102 degrees.

In addition... this is only the 7th 100 degree day that has ever
occurred in June.

Denvers weather records began in 1872.

here is the website for the models

the area in the gulf looks of interest but I do not believe it will have enough time to form moving to fast twd nw gulf coast should bring rain to houston tommorow I see where they could get as much as a inch then
this is changing the subject a little, but that wingfoot golf course they are playing the us open at sure looks tough. there are only 10 golfers at even or better leader is at -2. phil shot even par 70. go Phil tiger was at +5 the last time I saw is score. I would be lucking to shoot 110. avg 88 on my course
If you looked at my blog, you will see that there are three waves with circulations and models show two of them developing into tropical lows at the least.
125. PBG00
Thanks pcolabob
Yes, we have been getting cooked in Denver. Today we are getting a break in it, but the heat will be back by Sunday. I do think global warming is causing the changes in Denver's climate, in the last 10 years especially (see my blog). The West especially seems to be experiencing a lack of winter weather and the hottest summers on record since the late '90s. It may be partly a drought cycle, but I think GW is driving much of this.
It looks to me, like the "disturbance" in the GOM has a lot of shear over it.

I'm not seeing any rotation in the Gulf yet, I doubt it will do anything.
WOA!!!! Check out ALL the buoys in the gulf and near Texas and near Florida. Theyre nearly ALL falling with some Falling Rapidly!!!

Things are changing FAST.
^_^ Oh, global warming is caussing the sea levels to rise... But its not because of the Polar ice caps.

Two words

Thermal Expantion.
I think that the thing by Panama has a much better chance of developing than the Gulf system, as shear is lower (and falling for the past 24 hours). Also, according to the NOGAPS, Alberto originated from that area.
I'll say it again (not really saying anything though...I'll go out on a limb in my own blog :-)

Posted By: OneDay at 6:51 PM GMT on June 15, 2006.
Does anyone have a comment on the convection in the gulf? Per the NHC Discussion:

"...a plume of moisture is advected
from the Caribbean and east Pacific into the central Gulf of
Mexico. A sfc trough is embedded in this moisture plume along
24n93w to 18n95w. This trough is enhancing showers and tstms
from 19n-26n between 89w-95w. Buoy 42055 reported 30 kt winds in
one of the tstms near the trough axis."

The sheer is forecast to weaken a bit after 24 hours and a June storm in the gulf can be a force to reckon with (ie: June '05, TS Allison 1 and 2, and Hurricane Allison)
It appears this one may be going under some convection that is building up in assosiation with what appears to be a bit of rotation.
The latest vis sat shows some (relatively) healthy outflow to the NW of the blob in the gulf.
Hmm an hour ago nothing was going to happen.
Either Ya'll have some bad cases of A.D.D. Orrr.... You're crazy.

Yea I hear you - I have the minstrels, fire breathers, jugglers and dwarfs holding on the other line.
I highly doubt anything will develop from the system in the Gulf.
All very early to tell anything, I know, but look at the precip start going in the gulf.
I agree that probably nothing will happen with the blob in the gulf, but do you guys think there is a possibility at all? If so, what percent? 1%, 5%, 25% ?%
i give it a 25% chance of developing into a deppresion.
530 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006



lord thats short and sweet!!!!
yea 35% for me
144. PBG00
unlikely that blob will get its act together.
OneDay, I give it a 400% chance to reach category 6 strength. It will then head to NewOrleans.
That was for you ST... ^_^
but anything is posssible it is hurricane season 2006 and after what happened last year im not ruling out anything.
Did anyone see that MSN news video clip that said they were going to add a category 6 to the scale?
looks like on water vapor the gulf "blob" is right of the low I give it 1.5689343545% (approx.)
151. PBG00
no way..are you serious?
LOL sniper....go get 'em.
Honestly... What would be the point of a category 6? Aside from Hype? 155+ Is good enough... Unless a storm can get like 250 MPH winds, I don't think thats nesesary.
Should we get the queue and soapbox ready now for all the people that show up just when its a hurricane and lecture us on the moral outrage of succumbing to the hype of these things?!!
155. PBG00
The hype is kinda fun
There are some of you that have been staring at the loops for too long. There's nothing going on.....and the models predict nothing...thus the NHC predicts nothing..and Dr. Masters precicts nothing. Take a break. That flare up in the gulf is probably ST in a rowboat looking for the LLC of Alberto. He'll be back in about 10 days to tell us how right he was about a quiet June, and have some BS explanation about Alberto. Until then, take a break, like he is.
Point taken, CosmicEvents. After last year and the relatively early start to this year it seems a stray shower could spin up into a storm. Kinda still in that mode, I guess.
You might wanna stay in that mode...

and you should be in that mode OneDay.. ive seen no reason not to be .. and actually alot of reason to remain fairly vigil about these lil storms that pop up... fact is NO ONE not Dr.M not this guy Cosmic not ME knows exactly what will form and what won't.. i think this was made quite obvious last year and has already carried over to this year...

I hear both sides...and both sides are logical.
i agree Houstonian
o_O;; I hear my side, and My side says 31 Named storms and a Storm by Next monday.
If you asked me what the chances are for the thing in the Gulf, I would say 1.5 to 2%; this is why. However, models do not show anything there, whih is why I say that the area near Panama has a better chance (because models do show a low there).
Part of the Thermohaline Cycle discussion at this year's NHC conference was whether or not the cycle would actually end after it's traditional 25 to 40 year run - or rather our warmer waters temperatures would be a "trend" for decades. Flare-up off TX on rising motion side of upper low visible over coastal TX. Be doubtful if "the blob" has a chance to organize over the gulf...

last 9 hr ir of the gulf system close
point taken Michael.. id tend to agree... sure wish that BLOB would come my way tho... we could really use the precip
I'm Out. Later.
Hellsniper223, do you realize that your link is outdated; I mean extremely outdated - it says 2005102700-twenty-si26l at the top - October 27, 2005!
we need some rain too down here in louisiana its been weeks since we got some decent rain
By the way, I do not believe what Gray says about thermohaline circulation. This explains why. I think that it makes sense that it is actually slowing down because that means that there is less heat transfer between the tropics and poles (meaning that more storms develop to do the same thing).
What a great image, Buhdog! Thank you.

I've enjoyed it today. Thank you guys and gals.
That's what another website has been talking about - the slowing down of the Gulf Stream - leaving warmer waters on average in the equatorial zone. Not a good prospect for us Floridians!Link
Just north of panama is interesting also now. The NWS update discussion will be good.
neat sight michael thanks... nice to have someone who uses actual facts coupled with their knowledge to base an educated opinion..

unlike MOST on here who just spew meaningless crap about topics they know nothing about
176. PBG00
those are harsh words houstonian
Harsh but true.
wow its unusually quiet in this blog.!!
179. PBG00
they are ripping apart bush on the other blog...guess nothing is going on in the tropics LOL
i wonder where STORMTOP is we could really use some humor and excitement in here right now
181. PBG00
probably appalled at all the crap everyone is spewing on about
it seems to get quite right after 5pm .. when everyone leaves work for home... LOL
183. PBG00
alot of employers would be thrilled to hear that!
185. PBG00
once something starts brewin out there its chaos on these blogs..Love it!!
Code1, my take on the people who wish every wave will turn into a hurricane.

I know how you feel as when a hurricane actually develops it can be very scary and nerve racking. However it didnt used to be this way when the probability of one of those waves turning into a cane was much lower than it has been in the past few years. I feel its just unfortunate in a way that we have to have 20 storms a year now affecting us. When in reality, it should be fun having a cane forming as it normally wouldnt have the probability of doing the damage some of them have in the past couple years.
The gulf is a wait and see A LOT changed in the last day. Remnants of two waves and a high moved into there. Pressure high on the eastern side but dropping in all areas so far. Circ moving off Yucatan penn. now into gulf. Alberto II??
so.......what is that big blob in the gulf gonna do?
189. Alec
probably head NW and give TX some rain...
yeah i dont think its gonna develop but you never know.
texas and louisiana sure could use the rain though.
192. Alec
You can tell if the Gulf Stream is slowing because slower water means it will have time to heat up...(and be warmer)
I wonder what stormtop thinks of that blob in the gulf.lol
don't need any rain........redfish are thick around the Trinity river mouth....and i'm supposed to gonig offshore fishing tomorrow.......
ST probably thinks it'll be a cat 5 in 2 days.....lolol
yeah lmao
thing is, like in Allison or Francis, a TS can screw people over a whole lot more than a hurricane......
yeah tropical storms are big rain makers and many people judge a storm by its wind speed but in reality its the water that does MORE damage.
small blow up coming off of the Yucatan but other than that I do not see anything out there. That blob in the gulf just appears to be a large cluster of storms, no circulation or a low pressure center. So basically lets all relax and get back to normal until mother nature decides to retaliate against South Florida or the Caribbean in the way of a tropical system.
Hopefully someone here can answer this question: We have had a particularly dry rainy season so far down here in South Florida. Had a very dry May and June has also been relatively dry. What does that mean for the hurricane season we are expecting to have this year. Does it increase or decrease our chances for an above average or hyper active season? I know there was talk at one point about a dry May means a bad hurricane season, does that play into any forecasting of South Florida's and the caribbean's hurricane expectedness?

I would appreciate any and all help those here can offer, as it would apply to how much in the way of MRE's and such I get.
I hope all that rain doesn't dissipate before it gets here!
Looks to have a bit of curvature - slight vorticity max, low shear, lots of convection. Worth keeping an eye on, though obviously not immidiately.
if it does become a deppression it wont have much time too strengthen since its so close to hitting land,but i still doubt it will even become a deppresion.
that blob of convection near the yucatan is also something too watch its starting too flare up a little.
Check out this rig Link
Also don't forget about the area around Panama/South America; many models show a low developing there, although none really show anything significant; my blog has more details on it, including the models.
This may be a dumb question but how do you know how much shear has developed? Which weather maps do you look at to tell you this?
Here is a current shear map (it also shows where shear has been increasing or decreasig over the past 24 hours; this map shows shear only); these models can be used to see forecast conditions.
We could use the rain. Come on blob!
211. haydn
That blob is heading NNW toward the TX/LA border. Check the Lake Charles, LA radar and loop it. If you are in that path, there might be rain if convection doesn't die.
Regarding Alberto's intensification. I don't find a 10% decrease in shear and leaving the loop current to be very explanatory. (Dr. M's comments yesterday.) So, I'm going to propose the "dry air is denser" effect. With real tropical air the effect should be stronger than what occurs along a dry line in west Texas. The system should take on an extratropical appearance with the convection on the western side of the circulation center being stronger than that on the right side. I think the burst of convection it created caused the center to shift and pressure gradients to tighten up. Then it all sort of went south.
Hey, Michael I know the model was outdated... I was hoping somone would overlook that and freak out.
Wave just off Africa is looking healthy, already circulation. I think this will be your next real shot for Beryl.
where did everybody go
There are currently two invests out there. One in the EPAC, and one in the WPAC.

EPAC invest water vapor image.

WPAC invest.

In 7-10 days we are going to see some activity. 22nd to the 25th. You heard it here first!
The Buoys and the graph in the bay of Campeche. The actual main area of circulation hasnt made even made it into the bay, just the clouds have gone offshore. There are also several areas of circulation on the lower Yucatan, also converging on or near that spot.
canadian alberto

for more radars go to my radar page
Radar Database
I see three possible lows in the Atlantic in this IR loop.

Going from east to west, the first possible low is located to the ENE of Puerto Rico, and looks to me, like a mid-upper level low.

The second possible low is to the south of Jamaica, and is probably the most organized of them all.

The third possible low (and the one that I am the least sure of) is very broad and elongated. If it exists, it is located somewhere along the Texas coastline, to the west of the area of convection, which is moving into Texas and Louisiana.
That blob in the gulf is being sheared to shreds. A good look at the visible shows a wave or anemic circulation at one level, and rapid straight-line winds at all others. For development, you need circulation at lower and mid levels, and some semblence of a high pressure at the upper levels. This looks more like the jet stream, which will annihilate anything tropical.
Blobs tend to form in two types of areas: the best place for a hurricaine to form, and the worst place for a hurricaine to form. Conditions that tear hurricaines apart are usually also good for making baroclinic storms, which make their own convection.
we are starting to see clouds roll in from that disturbance in the gulf but no rain yet here in louisiana.
My personal opinion is that none of those lows are likely to develop into anything.
Louastu, I concur with your assessments, although I don't just yet count out the low south of Jamaica. I'm turning my sights much further east.
I am not counting anything out quite yet. I think the low to the south of Jamaica has about a 5% chance of development. The other 2 lows have less than a 1% chance of development in my opinion.
evening everyone...everybody rested up after alberto?! lot of you stayed on here a long time without breaks.
Most of the major models are picking up on something out of the wave just off Africa. Not much though, still to far out. They all seem to agree that whatever comes of it will be recurved out to sea through a weakness in the massive high pressure set up.
Check out the spiral banding on the wave that just came off the African coast! WV Loop. It's centered at about 8N18W in the last frame, but you can see a clear circulation there.
Hey Bama, for sure lol. Well rested now, and ready for the next. How are you this evening?
doing good progressive. just watching the altantic ocean being quiet and trying to avoid this august heat in June.
I agree Savannah, I think this will be the next real shot for Beryl. Have to keep an eye on it in the next 3 days.
Yes, the heat is bad for this time of year. It has been in the low to mid 90's here in Palm Beach Gardens, Humidity from 80 to 100%.
has great rotation but no convection. intereting to watch though.
That is an impressive looking circulation. If it gets some deep convection over the center, then we may get something.
It is impressive Savannah right off the coast. There have been many cases where they look impressive off the coast and fizzle out as it passes further west.
im looking savannah im looking LOL
239. MZT
It's pointless to tell people here to "cool it" between storms. People were on here in January looking for a post-Zeta storm. They were on here in March looking for a pre-Ana.

It's hurricane season. This is a tropical weather blog! So I expect everyone will remain "loopy" until February. :-)
its been near 100 over here around new orleans and the humidity has been brutal.
If my memory serves me correctly, NHC had this designated as a Low, inland over Africa. We'll have to see if it can hold together and build to the surface.
Usually by October from looking at loops all the time, especially last year, I get dizzy when I look at a stationary object.
What do I have to do to get rain in SW La. I thought we might get a little from the looks of things in the gulf earlier. Damn!
that blob in the gulf is starting to lose some convection.
I think the wave coming off Africa right now (and spinning a little) is the one the GFS tries to develop into a wee little storm that spins wee little fish.
lets go heat! lets tie this thang up.
247. Alec
The one thing I remember about last yr is that most of the waves off Africa struggled out there in the Atlantic but many of them survived the trip to the Caribbean or Gulf in which MANY achieved major hurricane status..

Those waves out there now are fighting shear so I dont think they will develop..
turtle dont cheer for heat...its hot enough around here!! LOL!
250. Alec
more heat=hotter SST's....
alec can you give me good link for wind sheer that show the entire atlantic? also haven't really found one that shows the forecast.
Off the wall question: If the SST's reached 100 degrees celcius, I wonder what that would look like on satellite? :)
well if things keep going the way they are now the gulf of mexico will be at boiling point by the end of next week
Well, Alberto going away made took a lot of bloggers with him. I have a question for you guys, I have noticed while looking around today that TWC will only say "no tropical formation in the next 24 hours" while NHC will go out 48 hours. I don't think TWC wants to take too many chances. This year there are a few noticable waves out there, and this time last year it was maybe one. Any correlation with whats to come???
255. Alec
here's a link for most of the Alantic:link

I'll hunt a bigger one down too.....
bama there is always this
257. Alec
Here's one for the whole Atlantic: link

Notice the shear.....too hostile!(the reds, whites, brighter colors)
ooooh..tampa i didnt know you can change the field on that page.. duhh :P
i really surprise myself with my on ignorance sometimes. thanks for the links guys
Normal, that is interesting. I was not paying attention to the tropics last year in June. Are we seeing an unusual amount of tropical waves for June?
261. Alec
I highly recommend the Penn State site. It has great features!
yea alec i have that page. Just havent played around with it too much. It looks very intimidating LOL.
263. Alec
Normal, the activity over the Atlantic is more of a July setup for this June....more activity for this early in the season means a better chance for storms(of course if the conditions are condusive)...
Alec do you know what the three diffrent panels are for? They all say 250-850mb Zonal shear.
265. Alec
LOL bama....I can tell you the features on there if you have questions...
Tampa, I have no credible info to back me up but I know that we have had more mentioned this year than last. Now this is out there to think about, could the reason be the late season storms last year that defied the laws of tropical formation? Or the major storms that forever changed our outlook on storms. More activity I don't know but definetly more attention being paid this year.. Whatcha think???
267. Alec
which panels? Lemme take a look....
Wow, alec that's a busy page!
BTW bama I have a page of intersting links you might want to look at. Link
269. cjnew
ALEC! ------>
270. Alec
I cant even find the 250 mb heights in there! Too much in there!
Alec, IK was referring to this Link.

Normal, I'd say a lot more attention is being paid. An interesting tidbit, for Arlene (last year) I think someone said there were 80 comments on this blog. For the whole Alberto event I think there has been close to 8000. That's a 100 fold increase!
heh I think I need a tutorial for the Penn State site. If I knew my way around that, I could forecast pretty good I think! :)
Well TampaCat5, I think the combined intelligence on this site far outdoes any single forecasting site. I find it amazing, with the few exceptions we manage to stay focused and put away the small differences. You guys really help guys like me. Thanks all....
the heat is up were tied now in the series :)
And to add Normal, I think after last year it's like, Whoa! Anything can happen, and we're all excited to see it unfold.
276. Alec
I really dont know too much about the Penn Site..(too big!!!)...but those 250mb, 850mb heights are contours of constant pressure...
night all...enjoy a peaceful night. Have a feeling in a few weeks we are going to get real busy with some storms.

GO HEAT, whoo hoo!
Night Bama!
Miami pulled it out.. new series now...
go bobcats!! oh wait, they arnet playing :P
Your welcome Normal, we are all learning together just some at different stages.
wow they almost lost too but in the end they came back whoohoo
Mavs have a great team, it will be a battle to the end, will easily go 7 games.
Tampa, This is my first year really studying this, but I feel like I have a pretty good understanding. Like you said everyone is learning. I love the ones on this site that act like they are right all the time. If weather was easy to forecast, then nothing would suprise us huh?? How boring that would be... I really love this stuff...Something about it just grabs my attention and won't let go..
It's getting harder and harder every year to forcast. Night all
good night
night pulse
Nice site, hope to get somw good info. Seems as though once the wind shear diminishes the water temp in the Gulf will be ripe for some activity....also, we have a drought here in LA due to a high that has migrated from Texas. This is the same pattern that brought Katrina last year....curious to get other thoughts on this.
The most impressive wave is the one off the African coastline and only time will tell if this will be our Beryl. I believe this one has a 50% chance of forming unless it fizzles out before the Caribbean Sea.
I am a new-be... just check-in to see if it works.
Can't wait to start track-in!
I will be back after my finals at school. That is interesting scottflorida. Lets just hope that she doesn't occur all over again because the northeastern/north central Gulf Coast does not need this anymore.
seems the cmc and nogaps still have something developing off the east coast in 3-4 days.....

seems it may curve towards the north, the stall?

cmc model

nogaps model
I am more interested in the area next Panama; the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS all show a cyclone developing in that area; also, a tropical wave is approaching the area as well (the NOGAPS had Alberto originate from the same area; my blog has more information on it).
wow, don't think i have ever seen the central atlantic so active this early in the season!!

is their any early guidance from the disturbance near panama?
hey savannah, I sure like the way you put that big circle and the Look on your map. At least I knew what to look at.
Its Friday time for crazy questions

Who wants some?
glad to be of service :D
Sure oriondarkwood... Load us up.
Here they are:

1. Which is worse: a hacker, a lawyer, a internet troll, a dentist, a whore or the goverment?

2. When did a system to track almost every American from birth to death was created?

3. Which way would you want to die: falling off Mt. Everest, falling into the eye of a Cat 5 hurricane, being in the path of a F5 torondo, dying from the ulimate orgasam, going down in a hail of gunfire, being on the beach with a board as a megatusmani hits?

1. a weatherman
1. a dentist
2. Social Security - mid to late 1930s I think
3. aside from the obvious, falling into the eye of a cat 5 would be cool.
1. a broadcasting meteorologist
307. Alec
1. a meteorologist that can't spell! LOL j/k
a meteorologist that can't spell

By the way, this forecast discussion has a misspelled word (not counting unusual abbreviations).
310. Alec
I'm going to make spelling a prerequisite for every MET major and everytime you misspell a word you will write it out on paper 5000 times(correctly), and recite the alphabet backwards 4 times in a row! But if I misspell then I have to stick my head in an ammonia jar for 24 hours...LOL

You got number 2 mostly right, FYI the year was November 1936.

Funny thing is techinally they are not supposed to be used for identification purposes.

Good Job, I give a a Cyber-Salute
312. Alec
technically* ha!..$5..now I can buy an updated dictionary!lol
I have one:

1. a meteorologist that makes up weird words, like gihemous.
314. Alec
That meteorologist is already emptying out his piggy bank....he's busted!LOL

Will you be looking only at spelling or is correct grammar also a prerequisite? You missed several commas in your post!!! LOL
317. Alec
Cancun, nope....I already have the undercover diction police in full force...LOL
The low in the gulf seems to be hugging the coast so I think we ll have to wait tile it gets to around 95 w 20 n to see if anything will happen. Other than that, the Caribbean is dry.
Just logged on....you guys are funny today!! I had to get up an hour earlier for a meeting today and I was afraid to log on due to yesterday's arguements and cursing. I could not have delt with that today. Thanks for being silly and upbeat today!!!!!

Come on "little" TS Beryl.....we need the rain!!!!
320. Alec
humor and laughter is the best medicine!
It appears as though Alec is not doing his job.

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 4:31 PM GMT on June 16, 2006.
The low in the gulf seems to be hugging the coast so I think we ll have to wait tile it gets to around 95 w 20 n to see if anything will happen. Other than that, the Caribbean is dry.

we'll* till*
thank you
I just noticed that the Drought Monitor no longer has my area in a moderate drought or even abnormally dry; it looks like the 12+ hours of continuous thunderstorms a few days ago had a significant effect. Also, Alberto did not do much for the drought in Florida.
324. Alec
Oh louastu.....I'm adding it up on my speadsheet! I tell them sporadically(just wait till the end of the month, I tell them the bill all at once) Hey since we're doing contests we can have one for the blogger that misspells the least!
325. Alec
Alec --- just for you:

Spellchecker Accuracy:

They're know miss steaks in this newsletter cause we used special soft wear witch checks yore spelling. It is mower or lass a weigh too verify. How ever is can knot correct arrows inn punctuation ore usage:an it will not fined words witch are miss used butt spelled rite. Four example; a paragraph could have mini flaws but wood bee past by the spell checker. And it wont catch the sentence fragment which you. Their fore, the massage is that proofreading is knot eliminated, it is still berry muck reek wired.

Did any of have trouble opening this site earlier?
yup, I did
Cajun, yes for a couple of hours this morning. Does anyone know what happened?
331. Alec
SWFL- Blanket fine- $1000

By the way, I'm probably the worst speller on here...If you catch me, then I pay you $5!LOL
Alec, your check is in the mail, k?

I'm a good speller, just a bad typist. My brain goes faster than my fingers ....

more rain please!!!!
334. Alec
SWFL, we need code's keyboard!!!LOL
LOL! And, now, back to the weather .....

(whoosh - back to work, have a great afternoon!)
336. Alec
weather in a nutshell: hot, hazy, humid......oh and no tropical formation until further notice!
Dear Lord in Heaven! Not Code's keyboard! (Hic!)
This is my weather forecast for today.
Where the daylights is daylight savings time for the Eastern Seaboard in the time zone list?
They don't have daylight savings time; if I select CST, it will automatically display it as CDT when daylight savings is in effect.
Aaaahhhh, okaaaaay!
The small wave right at the crosshairs of 10N 35W looks kinda interesting and seems to be holding its own for now. That might have a sliver of a chance if it keeps up.
SWFL..that's a hoot!!
I'm having a hard time setting my timezone. I keep selecting CST, but the page keeps on displaying GMT. Is it just me or is anyone else having this problem?
I guess the low in Texas and the Gulf system just released from the remains of Alberto.
346. IKE
There may not be any tropical systems floating around, but Alberto left it's mark on the Florida panhandle in the form of....heat, humidity, and afternoon thunderstorms.

Like a sponge bath out there. Thanks for the rain though. We cetainly need it.
347. IKE
edit to say...*certainly*
The humidity should reduce the fire danger even further.
Anybody see anything curious about the convection sitting over the delta? Appears to be wet there in spite of high pressure. Shear is going to relax very soon. Could it drift back over water?
I think it will go north/north east. I think the shear will relax.

A new wave is moving into the SW gulf where already a low is trying" to build. There doesnt seem to be as much moisture moving into the gulf via advection however.

Its HOT like a sauna out there.
Actually the shear should pivot more e so roughly ne? but be almost as strong? Right?
SWFL at 4:46,
You write just like my Art Appreciation students!

Still, he got a "blanket fine" of $1,000!!! Is that fair?