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The Tropics Go Quiet World-Wide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night. With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don't expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal's off the coast of Massachusetts at approximately 11 am EDT on August 28, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 97L headed towards Mexico
In the Central Caribbean, a tropical wave (designated as 97L by NHC earlier this week, but no longer being labeled as such) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear was a high 20 - 30 knots on Friday, and will remain high through Saturday. On Sunday, when the wave will be in the Western Caribbean, shear will fall, but the wave will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The wave should emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday, and development odds will be higher then. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the GFS, showed some weak development occurring in the Bay of Campeche on Monday and Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. Given the propensity of tropical storms to quickly spin up in the Bay of Campeche, I'd put the 5-day development odds at 40%. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest towards the Mexican coast south of Texas.

New tropical wave off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Friday, and is headed west at about 15 mph. One of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the UKMET model, predicts some weak development of the wave five days from now, when the storm was predicted to be headed northwest about 700 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.


Figure 2. A man wearing a tiny life jacket and clutching a neon green noodle and a pet dog floats on the remains of a house in Waveland, MS, during Hurricane Katrina. The photo was taken from the second floor window of a home, and the water is close to the roof line of the first floor. The home was at an elevation of about 17 feet, and the surge is close to ten feet deep here. There are electric lines running down from a pole to a home from left to right. In the distance on the right is a home with water up to the roof line. The eye is probably overhead, as the water is relatively calm and there appears to be little wind or rain, even though the pine trees are bent from the recent force of the eyewall winds. The photo was taken by Judith Bradford. Her husband, Bill Bradford, swam out and rescued the man and his dog, and two other people who floated by. He reported that the water was nothing like white water, but was a gentle, continuous flow. He was lucky. In the nearby Porteaux Bay area, a woman watched her fiance get pulled from a tree by the force of the current. The man was washed out into the Gulf and drowned. The image above is described in more detail in Part 9 of Margie Kieper's Katrina storm surge web page.

Ninth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
August 29 is a date indelibly etched into the memory of millions, for on this date in 2005, Hurricane Katrina roared ashore on the Mississippi coast, bringing incredible destruction and suffering. The scale and intensity of the destruction the hurricane brought was extraordinary, and can best be appreciated by viewing two of the best chronicles of Katrina's record storm surge--Margie Kieper's remarkable city-by-city aerial tour of the destruction, and extreme weather photographer Mike Thiess' 13-minute video of his storm surge experience in Gulfport, Mississippi. I had only been blogging for four months when Katrina struck, and was happy that hurricane expert Steve Gregory was on hand that summer to share the blogging effort. Steve has not been blogging since that epic season, but is now back as a featured blogger on wunderground. He plans to provide regular updates on the Atlantic tropical weather at least three times per week.

Nola.com has an interesting feature that allows you to swipe the photos taken nine years ago and see Hurricane Katrina disaster dissolve into present-day recovery (thanks go to wunderground member patrap for this link.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link my new blog about 99L
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
420 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Short term...
a more active radar over the forecast area today and expect this
to continue through early this evening as a weak low well south
in southern Texas. Abundant moisture will be in place tonight
and into tomorrow as precipitable water values will be well over
2 inches across the area tomorrow. Have increased the probability of precipitation to 100
percent tomorrow across the western portions of the area...mainly
areas west of Interstate 55. Other areas will be in the likely
category tomorrow. It looks as the moisture will interact with an
upper trough across the Central Plains and elongate over the area.
The storm motion should be high enough where convection should not
sit over an area...however...we will have to watch for the
orientation of the rainfall as there still can be some training
over the same areas. With all of this moisture around and with the
reports that we have received today expect these storms tomorrow
to be heavy rainfall producers. Again we will definitely have to
watch the flooding potential tomorrow. 13/mh

Long term...
not much change in the forecast over the long range. Will stick
close to last issuance. Rain chances should decrease next week as
the trough to the north races northeast and upper ridge builds
back in across the southern half of the United States. Models
still show high pressure building back in as a more typical
summertime conditions come back into the picture. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are still showing a weak tropical wave moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico going into the middle of next
week. Will be something to monitor although no tropical threat
exists at this time. 13/mh
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Floater for 99L is now up
The Invest Invest is still there too but it shows 99L and Invest Invest being two different places. Is there another invest at Invest Invest or are they still thinking about that one? I hope they get this sorted out. Me and my little friend are getting confused.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


In that case I predict the next invest will be 90L, in the Atlantic. His westcasting has taken over the discussion on this blog. I will solve it, at least in my version of WU.

Umm if it the African wave that GFS been showing I also think it will be in the Atlantic maybe similar to Christobal maybe closer to Arthur when it nears NE Bahamas but at this point to way to far out to even determine if that will even happen IMHO

I'm not Westcasting at all
507. beell
Quoting 482. tornadodude:



haha I wish. I've chased in Louisiana a few times. It's always a challenge


Maybe a good waterspout photo op.
GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Umm if it the African wave that GFS been showing I also think it will be in the Atlantic maybe similar to Christobal maybe closer to Arthur when it nears NE Bahamas but at this point to way to far out to even determine if that will even happen IMHO

I'm not Westcasting at all
OK, I've now read that five different times and come up with five different meanings. The last one was a fantasy about what happens to people who refuse to use any punctuation and aren't named ee cummings.
You all need to stop picking on WKC and pick on someone your own size and don't make me come over there. But really kid has been on here a couple years, you all should know how he stays. Honestly, without him the blog might be dull and boring.
Quoting 479. TropicalAnalystwx13:



That image only displays SHIPS, which doesn't take into account land interaction. Here's the DSHIPS forecast, which does:

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 30 35 43 48 54 40 31
Bwahahahaha!!!
Anyway guys I'm off be back later
NOT 99L. Lol. I'm a little distracted. No surface west winds but I sure am glad it is running out of room. Link

Overall shear dropping in the waters in time for peak season. Only dry air to stop development.

Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You all need to stop picking on WKC and pick on someone your own size and don't make me come over there. But really kid has been on here a couple years, you all should know how he stays. Honestly, without him the blog might be dull and boring.

It goes both ways. Yes, the constant nagging about his posts does get annoying and is a waste of time, I admit to contributing to this. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, it gets really annoying when all you ever see from him is that it's going to go west into the Caribbean and is going to take off. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but there's gotta be a limit to what can be taken seriously.
516. SLU
Today is the 35th anniversary of the passage of Major Hurricane David in Dominica packing winds of 150mph and making it the most powerful hurricane to strike the Windward Islands since official hurricane records began in 1851.





Image and video hosting by TinyPic
517. JRRP
shear is overall very favorable in both the Caribbean Basin and GOM

It's also not threatening west of 50W in the MDR.

Looks like the Caymans are in for some rain for a few days.
Long term...
not much change in the forecast over the long range. Will stick
close to last issuance. Rain chances should decrease next week as
the trough to the north races northeast and upper ridge builds
back in across the southern half of the United States. Models
still show high pressure building back in as a more typical
summertime conditions come back into the picture. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are still showing a weak tropical wave moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico going into the middle of next
week. Will be something to monitor although no tropical threat
exists at this time. 13/mh

THE EAST COAST going to feel like summer next week
Right now it's pouring
okay off to my book.
it's raining somewhere.
525. SLU
Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If shear is favorable and sea surface temperatures are warm, having a modest amount of dry air will only slow development, not prevent it altogether. Once you have a substantial inner core developed (which usually is the case as the storm intensifies into a hurricane), it doesn't really matter how dry the air is (see also: Julio of this year in the central Pacific, Cristina of this year in the East Pacific, Adrian 2011 in the East Pacific among other examples).


Conversely, i've seen dry air kill a well developed hurricane in the Atlantic before. Joyce 2000 is one of the best examples.

From an 80kt hurricane to an open wave in 4 days in the MDR in September.



Quoting 515. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It goes both ways. Yes, the constant nagging about his posts does get annoying and is a waste of time, I admit to contributing to this. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, it gets really annoying when all you ever see from him is that it's going to go west into the Caribbean and is going to take off. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but there's gotta be a limit to what can be taken seriously.


Also coming up with some story about how the NHC had this as an invest all day, but could not decide whether to make it 97L again or 99L. NHC is much more professional than that
Quoting 518. Chicklit:

shear is overall very favorable in both the Caribbean Basin and GOM

It's also not threatening west of 50W in the MDR.

maybe a threaten in the GOM IF the wind shear going down
Upward bound.

Quoting 523. wunderkidcayman:

Right now it's pouring

get used to it.


click on picture for animated (I think)
Should see future waves coming off with more bite now that instability is on the rise, instead of harmlessly passing into the east pacific.
Quoting 515. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It goes both ways. Yes, the constant nagging about his posts does get annoying and is a waste of time, I admit to contributing to this. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, it gets really annoying when all you ever see from him is that it's going to go west into the Caribbean and is going to take off. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but there's gotta be a limit to what can be taken seriously.
I cut my absinth in half. I think I am improving. Half gallon a night to a quarter, cold turkey. If I can do it anyone here can. The official weather forecast for the GOM States has changed this evening. It will be wet. I think that that thing they just numbered 99 will thread the needle.
Evening all...

Thanks for the Katrina reminder, Doc. I remember here in Nassau we sat in amazement and wonder, knowing that only a few days earlier the cause of such devastation had passed through The Bahamas as a torrentially rainy, windy afternoon's event. It's important to remember, so those who have not experienced a tropical cyclone can have some understanding of their destructive potential.....
Quoting 530. ProgressivePulse:

Should see future waves coming of with more bite now that instability is on the rise, instead of harmlessly passing into the east pacific.
I'll take your word for it. Conditions in both GOM an Carib very TW friendly ATM. Even West of 50 is innocuous but am repeating myself. Will be interesting to see if the peace and quiet remains and what changes. night all
Quoting JRRP:
Don't start on any giant waves coming off Africa. We've been down that path a few times already. :-0
Look at the steering currents. If anything formed in the northern carribean right now it would
not be good.
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

I'll take your word for it. Conditions in both GOM an Carib very TW friendly ATM


GOM I agree with, pretty good Twaves traversing the Caribb that were squashed.

Quoting 514. unknowncomic:

Overall shear dropping in the waters in time for peak season. Only dry air to stop development.


Dry air dissapearing ... and BINGO!
STS and WKC are constantly ragged on this blog and it gets quite annoying. Yes, they both do say some exasperating statements at time but we all do.. I find the constant picking on the verge of bullying and some of you are over 40 and parents which makes it even more disturbing...as a lurker today I was able to experience someone who was just observing the blog and I found it the community as a whole disappointing as people were not only going after said bloggers but plussing/cosigning the statements..Makes me wonder if people come here for the weather or just come here to see conflict..No one spoke up today except DSR..if you don't like someone's post then put them on ignore but the fact that there is a group that goes after a select group of bloggers just makes a lot of you look small in my opinion..I don't know if you were picked on while kids but some of you need to channel how you felt when it happen to you and stop it..I will say the blog had an air of "prickish" today and this is not what WU is about..

I'm not looking for plusses so don't get it twisted..I just felt I had to speak up and talk for those who don't have a voice on here and are clearly outnumbered..there is no trophies given out here and believe me there are other websites that talk about WU and how its not welcoming anymore..I instead would like to believe otherwise..

So if you need to go looking in your most sarcastic bag of tricks for a comment, go right ahead..I'll actually be spending time with my family which might do some of yall some good too..

As my 7 year would say Grow up!!
Quoting 537. ProgressivePulse:



GOM I agree with, pretty good Twaves traversing the Caribb that were squashed.



that was then and this is now
Quoting 525. SLU:



Conversely, i've seen dry air kill a well developed hurricane in the Atlantic before. Joyce 2000 is one of the best examples.

From an 80kt hurricane to an open wave in 4 days in the MDR in September.





Joyce also experienced shear of unknown origin.

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

HERE WE HAVE YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. MORNING VISUAL IMAGES REVEAL AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AND RAGGED-LOOKING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED IN
THE VERTICAL. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY SUCH A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS SINCE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DOES NOT SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF JOYCE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO
DISORGANIZED IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...WILL JOYCE RE-STRENGTHEN? OUR BEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL
SHIPS...SAYS YES. BECAUSE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF JOYCE
BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR.

THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION APPEARS TO BE GONE....INITIAL
HEADING IS NOW 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS ARE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWEST AND SLOWER MOTION SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...KEEPING JOYCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 72 HOURS...TO
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BECAUSE OF THE U.K.
MET SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION.

FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 539. ncstorm:

STS and WKC are constantly ragged on this blog and it gets quite annoying. Yes, they both do say some exasperating statements at time but we all do.. I find the constant picking on the verge of bullying and some of you are over 40 which makes it even more disturbing...as a lurker today I was able to experience someone who was just observing the blog and I found it the community as a whole disappointing as people were not only going after said bloggers but plussing/cosigning the statements..Makes me wonder if people come here for the weather or just come here to see conflict..No one spoke up today except DSR..if you don't like someone's post then put them on ignore but the fact that there is a group that goes after a select group of bloggers just makes a lot of you look small in my opinion..I don't know if you were picked on while kids but some of you need to channel how you felt when it happen to you and stop it..I will say the blog had an air of "prickish" today and this is not what WU is about..

I'm not looking for plusses so don't get it twisted..I just felt I had to speak up and talk for those who don't have a voice on here and are clearly outnumbered..there is no trophies given out here and believe me there are other websites that talk about WU and how its not welcoming anymore..I instead would like to believe otherwise..

So if you need to go looking in your most sarcastic bag of tricks for a comment, go right ahead..I'll actually be spending time with my family which might do some of yall some good too..

As my 7 year would say Grow up!!

Could only give you one +, but +10000 here!
anyone enjoying the light breeze and showers that the little GOM low is producing?
Quoting Chicklit:

get used to it.


click on picture for animated (I think)

No actually we are all very happy for this is extremely well needed hopefully this will help mitigate this drought problem we have been having here in Cayman this year
Quoting 535. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Have you ever considered putting him on ignore then, this goes for the rest of the blog that has a problem with him. To me what I have been noticing the past few nights is the discussion gets changed from the weather to a blogger that wants to attract attention or get a response out of you. Idk, but I am not bothered by what bloggers post on here, unless they call me out for something like Ed did earlier calling me a wishcaster, that's when I get up to the podium and defend myself. I don't let anyone in this world not even the cyber world talk down to me unless for a valid reason. And if the mods have a problem with that then they can suck it up.

The ignore feature on WU is completely useless, solely because the person you put on ignore isn't on everybody's ignored list. I'm sure I'm on a few people's lists, yet a lot of people quote me, and thus those people see my posts. Kind of a moot point, huh?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all...

Thanks for the Katrina reminder, Doc. I remember here in Nassau we sat in amazement and wonder, knowing that only a few days earlier the cause of such devastation had passed through The Bahamas as a torrentially rainy, windy afternoon's event. It's important to remember, so those who have not experienced a tropical cyclone can have some understanding of their destructive potential.....
Hi Baha. How was Katrina compared to Andrew? I assume nowhere near as bad. Andrew sunk my new...well, new to me...boat after owning it a grand total of three days. Thankfully, I wasn't on it, but I could have been if Andrew had blown up two days later. I was in Waveland MS two days after Katrina. I was prepared for a Camille type storm. Katrina was worse than I ever imagined a hurricane could be. Here it is, nine years later, and no other landfalling US major hurricanes since. The longer I've lived, the stranger the world has gotten.
Quoting 541. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joyce also experienced shear of unknown origin.

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

HERE WE HAVE YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. MORNING VISUAL IMAGES REVEAL AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AND RAGGED-LOOKING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED IN
THE VERTICAL. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY SUCH A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS SINCE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DOES NOT SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF JOYCE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO
DISORGANIZED IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...WILL JOYCE RE-STRENGTHEN? OUR BEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL
SHIPS...SAYS YES. BECAUSE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF JOYCE
BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR.

THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION APPEARS TO BE GONE....INITIAL
HEADING IS NOW 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS ARE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWEST AND SLOWER MOTION SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...KEEPING JOYCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 72 HOURS...TO
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BECAUSE OF THE U.K.
MET SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION.

FORECASTER PASCH
Outflow from Isaac?
Quoting 540. Chicklit:


that was then and this is now


Now was not to long ago?

Last Modified: 08/30/2014 02:00:10
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
anyone enjoying the light breeze and showers that the little GOM low is producing?


Lol. precious little of it at my house yet. But we did just go under a Flood/Flash Flood watch through tomorrow night.


Temp
74.3F
1mph
Hi: 86F
Lo: 73F
Rain: 0.01"
Gust: ESE 17
Heat Index: 74F
Humidity: 94%
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Dew Point: 72F
Avg Wind: 1 ESE
Pressure: 29.88"
Rain/Month: 3.47"
Quoting 551. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. precious little of it at my house yet. But we did just go under a Flood/Flash Flood watch through tomorrow night.


Temp
74.3�F
1mph
Hi: 86�F
Lo: 73�F
Rain: 0.01"
Gust: ESE 17
Heat Index: 74�F
Humidity: 94%
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Dew Point: 72�F
Avg Wind: 1 ESE
Pressure: 29.88"
Rain/Month: 3.47"


I think they may have jumped the gun a little on the flash flood. I am a little south of you so it may work its way up to you still. I got enough to wet the driveway.
I've been lurking for several years and things have changed on this site, however I do find some's comments interesting reading. So for those that are inclined to answer this question, how far up the texas coast could invest 99 come or is everyone confident this will be a Mexico storm. For the record I live in Houston but work in Baton Rouge and have no desire to deal with a Hurricane
Can you imagine how things were in 1954 when Hurricane Hazel hit? There was a forecast for a northeaster to turn her away from SENC. An elderly man told me that he and his father in law were expecting a northeaster and stayed on Holden Beach. After the storm was over, and having ridden it out on the highest dunes they could find because the house was gone, his father in law looked at him and said " that was the damndest northeaster i have ever seen"
Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow from Isaac?

Probably too far away to have an influence. The shear, IMO, looks to be coming from that huge upper-level low south of the Azores just based on water vapor imagery, even though NHC said WV imagery didn't show strong upper-level winds over the storm.

Quoting 547. sar2401:

Hi Baha. How was Katrina compared to Andrew? I assume nowhere near as bad. Andrew sunk my new...well, new to me...boat after owning it a grand total of three days. Thankfully, I wasn't on it, but I could have been if Andrew had blown up two days later. I was in Waveland MS two days after Katrina. I was prepared for a Camille type storm. Katrina was worse than I ever imagined a hurricane could be. Here it is, nine years later, and no other landfalling US major hurricanes since. The longer I've lived, the stranger the world has gotten.


Wasn't Wilma a major? And she came after Katrina. I just remember Wilma was an intense storm.
Quoting 516. SLU:

Today is the 35th anniversary of the passage of Major Hurricane David in Dominica packing winds of 150mph and making it the most powerful hurricane to strike the Windward Islands since official hurricane records began in 1851.





Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 506. wunderkidcayman:


Umm if it's the African wave that GFS has been showing, I also think it will be in the Atlantic, maybe similar to Christobal, maybe closer to Arthur when it nears NE Bahamas, but at this point, [too] way too far out to even determine if that will even happen, IMHO.

I'm not Westcasting at all.

Quoting 509. sar2401:

OK, I've now read that five different times and come up with five different meanings. The last one was a fantasy about what happens to people who refuse to use any punctuation and aren't named ee cummings.
Easy to understand once you understand that it actually is SUPPOSED to have only one full stop.... lol ... sar, you gotta just let it roll over you, man... feel the stream of consciousness....

:o)

[grins cheekily]

It occurs to me I have less problem with WKC because I can understand most of what he's saying.... ;o)

And you need to stop turning your fan my way to blow all that superheated Alabama air my way.... lol ...
Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You all need to stop picking on WKC and pick on someone your own size and don't make me come over there. But really kid has been on here a couple years, you all should know how he stays. Honestly, without him the blog might be dull and boring.
I can't figure out why everybody keeps getting up in arms over his opinions... it's not like we don't all get proved wrong in here now and again.... and it's not like the Caymans aren't in the middle of Hebert's Box #2, meaning any Caymanian is fairly well justified in expecting a storm / Twave to head their way...
They do say "just because you think I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me"... lol
Quoting 515. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It goes both ways. Yes, the constant nagging about his posts does get annoying and is a waste of time, I admit to contributing to this. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, it gets really annoying when all you ever see from him is that it's going to go west into the Caribbean and is going to take off. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but there's gotta be a limit to what can be taken seriously.
There's a difference between not taking seriously and jeering / badgering. I've been saying to both sides of this camp, the wx will prove one camp right or wrong in time... why not just let nature take its course? Additionally, there really IS some genuine climatological logic to Twaves and weak systems persisting in a W to WNW motion until they get to the central / western CAR, and storms often DO form in that area. I laughed at the people who shouted WKC down when he talked about the two centres of circulation with pre-Cristobal, only to later have the "experts" confirm his observations [other people saw that too, but I don't know if they received the same level of jeering].
Just like everybody else, WKC will be wrong, and perhaps he will be wrong frequently. However, instead of simply dismissing him as a westcaster, which many of the more impatient crew often do, it might be wiser to actually examine the data in front of us to JUSTIFY one's disagreement with his thinking.
To be fair, I have to agree w/ SAR that sometimes it's a challenge to interpret his comments. But there are more than enough of us with our own writing challenges here to give a bit of leeway....
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


I think they may have jumped the gun a little on the flash flood. I am a little south of you so it may work its way up to you still. I got enough to wet the driveway.


Yeah, well they and Greg, said the rain's supposed to pick up towards day break. But it is mainly concentrated to the south. I'm south of I 10 but just. :)
Quoting catman007:

That's a good example why the ignore feature is worthless. If you want to plus a rant, feel free. It's not necessary to quote the entire thing, thereby defeating the entire purpose of why we have people on ignore. Not aimed at you specifically, you just happened to be the one to quote this time.
I remember two hurricanes going on at the same time in Sept. 1979 David and Fredric,both bad to the bone.
Quoting 559. AtHomeInTX:



Yeah, well they and Greg, said the rain's supposed to pick up towards day break. But it is mainly concentrated to the south. I'm south of I 10 but just. :)


We shall see.. maybe so. Wish we would have gotten a little more from this system
Fredric came right over the house.It was fun at our house that night.
I think our little COC just feel apart


wind shear going down right now!!!!Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 16 Comments: 31113
i heard that the last time a storm made it as far as Cristobal ( close to iceland anyway) was in the 60's. Forget which year. Wonder what the hurricane season was like that year? Wish i could remember the year.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


We shall see.. maybe so. Wish we would have gotten a little more from this system


Me too. Still might get a little more rain. More info would've been great. lol. Greg said it would act like a depression without the winds. So hopefully just beneficial. Should be moving north. If it doesn't miss us to the east.

Quoting 539. ncstorm:

STS and WKC are constantly ragged on this blog and it gets quite annoying. Yes, they both do say some exasperating statements at time but we all do.. I find the constant picking on the verge of bullying and some of you are over 40 and parents which makes it even more disturbing...as a lurker today I was able to experience someone who was just observing the blog and I found it the community as a whole disappointing as people were not only going after said bloggers but plussing/cosigning the statements..Makes me wonder if people come here for the weather or just come here to see conflict..No one spoke up today except DSR..if you don't like someone's post then put them on ignore but the fact that there is a group that goes after a select group of bloggers just makes a lot of you look small in my opinion..I don't know if you were picked on while kids but some of you need to channel how you felt when it happen to you and stop it..I will say the blog had an air of "prickish" today and this is not what WU is about..

I'm not looking for plusses so don't get it twisted..I just felt I had to speak up and talk for those who don't have a voice on here and are clearly outnumbered..there is no trophies given out here and believe me there are other websites that talk about WU and how its not welcoming anymore..I instead would like to believe otherwise..

So if you need to go looking in your most sarcastic bag of tricks for a comment, go right ahead..I'll actually be spending time with my family which might do some of yall some good too..

As my 7 year would say Grow up!!
See, I knew there was a reason why I think u r cool....
You know, you and I often disagree on stuff, see things in different ways. However, I think we've managed to maintain a certain civility to our conversations, even when we have to agree to disagree. I wish more people would realize that just because a person thinks / speaks / feels something different, that doesn't mean you have to shoot them down or stomp on them, even if they get on your last nerve. If it gets that bad for you, use [Ignore User], as so many have advised.
In the case of WKC, I notice that SJunkie is going to the DATA to show why he doesn't agree with WKC. More of this and less of the mean jokes and personal comments would go a LONG way to improve blog discourse.
In any case, a little tolerance goes a long way.

*** I will add one thing; I notice that we get more of this person comment when the blog is slower.... maybe the comment you made suggesting that pple r making a "show" of it is valid....
It's interesting if you live at a place long enough,you see the scares of the bad storms that come and go. Kind of brings back memories good and bad.
570. SLU
Quoting 541. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joyce also experienced shear of unknown origin.

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

HERE WE HAVE YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. MORNING VISUAL IMAGES REVEAL AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AND RAGGED-LOOKING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED IN
THE VERTICAL. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY SUCH A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT
EXISTS SINCE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DOES NOT SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF JOYCE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO
DISORGANIZED IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...WILL JOYCE RE-STRENGTHEN? OUR BEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL
SHIPS...SAYS YES. BECAUSE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF JOYCE
BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR.

THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION APPEARS TO BE GONE....INITIAL
HEADING IS NOW 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS ARE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWEST AND SLOWER MOTION SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...KEEPING JOYCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 72 HOURS...TO
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BECAUSE OF THE U.K.
MET SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION.

FORECASTER PASCH


In the post season review they concluded that SAL intrusion was the ultimate showstopper with Joyce in spite of the shear that started the degradation.
Quoting 560. sar2401:



Thanks for the lesson!
Quoting 569. HurleyBoy:

It's interesting if you live at a place long enough,you see the scares of the bad storms that come and go. Kind of brings back memories good and bad.


Been thru many here. The worst by far was
Fran. The only one that has ever shaken the brick house i was in. I have learned thru The Weather Channel that its akin to a house "breathing".
Quoting 544. FOREX:

thread what needle? yucatan channel?


There is less than a one percent chance of this threading the needle. Steering currents will clearly take this over the South Central Yucatan Peninsula. Just what it is. Of coarse if the LLC forms in the NE quadrant then that would all change and it would have a 99% chance of shooting the gap or going over the tip of the Yucatan. And I'm 100% sure I've been able to contradict myself in three sentences. At the end of the day, WU is a great, respectful blog. With wide ranging varying personalities and world views, that's no little thing. Nice to see Caleb and ncstorm stand up for WKC. It has gotten old, even if most the rubbing has been in good humor and because he's well liked. He doesn't like it, and we can and should respect that. You know who can take it? Sar. He's been wishcasting rain in Alabama for soooooo long now. Such a dreamer. Kori can take it too, he's unflappable.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
I think our little COC just feel apart


Well, it may hae just moved into SW LA? Lol. I have no way of knowing that just watching this satellite.

Link
Thanks for the information,sar2401,!! I am from Puerto Rico. I remember the Hurricane watches and warnings from my childhood, David, Hugo and Georges. All the people in the street helping each other, securing the windows and doors from the rain and winds. And then after the winds and rain, be with lighting candles in the night, making jokes and old stories without electric power. Was an unforgettable time. From then and until today, I follow Hurricanes in all parts of the world. Not to want damage or death, is to enjoy the view, perfection and greatness of one of the most powerful nature force.
Quoting 468. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Strange they went 99L instead of keeping 97L.


I imagine they went with 99L because this is blob west of ex 97L. EX 97L is south or over Hispañola.
Quoting 560. sar2401:

Oh now i see I was singled out , typical right wing, If some brains were in there posterior, they wouldn't have a clue how to break wind! Take a dive!
Quoting 541. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joyce also experienced shear of unknown origin.
Maybe came down off the SA continent? Not sure if there would be enough of an upper low feature in the vicinity of Venezuela / Guyana to create that kind of shear....

Quoting 543. SomeRandomTexan:

anyone enjoying the light breeze and showers that the little GOM low is producing?
Random! i guess you were hoping for a bit more... lol ...
Quoting 546. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ignore feature on WU is completely useless, solely because the person you put on ignore isn't on everybody's ignored list. I'm sure I'm on a few people's lists, yet a lot of people quote me, and thus those people see my posts. Kind of a moot point, huh?
Not necessarily. You don't see as many posts as you would if they weren't ignored. If that person is really annoying a lot of pple in the blog, their posts will be quoted less frequently. And, IIRC, there is also an impact filter-wise from being on a lot of pple's ignore list. It's why I use [Show Bad] instead of [Show All].
Why don't you at least try it? Then you'd at least have proof for yourself one way or the other.

Quoting 547. sar2401:

Hi Baha. How was Katrina compared to Andrew? I assume nowhere near as bad. Andrew sunk my new...well, new to me...boat after owning it a grand total of three days. Thankfully, I wasn't on it, but I could have been if Andrew had blown up two days later. I was in Waveland MS two days after Katrina. I was prepared for a Camille type storm. Katrina was worse than I ever imagined a hurricane could be. Here it is, nine years later, and no other landfalling US major hurricanes since. The longer I've lived, the stranger the world has gotten.
Katrina was an above average afternoon thunderstorm to us - absolutely drenching rains, some unexpectedly gusty conditions. Andrew was the real deal, even though the worst of the cat 5 winds passed offshore to our north here in New Providence. I remember you talking about that boat. Definitely you wouldn't have wanted to have been on that during Andrew...
Quoting 539. ncstorm:



As my 7 year would say Grow up!!


Exactly...And at the same time; it's good to never let yourself get too old...Like Gro. But seriously. It is one thing for wishcasting to take place. It's one thing for people to not know any better. It's a different thing for folks like CaribBoy who find some enjoyment out of tropical systems. It's also understandable that some are just interested in learning which will sometimes lead predictions astray. Easy to understand those view points.

It is something completely different to come on day in and day out and proclaim that every wave is going to be more robust, move closer to 82.15W, and defy horrid conditions in spite of all prevailing logic. To continually say the NHC is wrong, or the Dr is wrong, or the others who know what they are talking about. If no one ever disputed those kinds of statements...Well then the people trying to learn wouldn't know any better until they see outlandish predictions fall short time and time again. So I don't see any problem in helping speed that learning process along by trying to provide as much accurate info as possible.

So, imho, it's good to have these things pointed out. If it gets repetitive it is because the same types of predictions are made time and time again. More often than not, they are stated as fact; or "likely" to happen...as opposed to a guess or hunch.

It's a blog. Everyone has the ability to state their opinion in the way they choose...And everyone else has the ability to respond the way they choose. I don't see anyone stepping up to defend poor hurricane2018 when Taz calls him names.
Quoting 569. HurleyBoy:

It's interesting if you live at a place long enough,you see the scares of the bad storms that come and go. Kind of brings back memories good and bad.


Sometimes i remember funny things. When the eye of Fran was going over, my neighbor yelled out her back door to me that she and her sister had seen an apparition during the storm. Her husband said its called a "hallucination".
I believe we are going to end at 4/2/1 for September.
Quoting TcuFrogs:
I've been lurking for several years and things have changed on this site, however I do find some's comments interesting reading. So for those that are inclined to answer this question, how far up the texas coast could invest 99 come or is everyone confident this will be a Mexico storm. For the record I live in Houston but work in Baton Rouge and have no desire to deal with a Hurricane
Really, most of us look at models, look at things like water vapor and shear, and almost always just agree with the NHC. You've been here plenty long enough to know who the geographically biased posters are - and we have a bunch of them. You should also know the ones that are consistent doomcasters, taking every swirl to a hurricane and every hurricane to a major. Having 99L get out into the BOC (assuming it gets out into the BOC) and turn left is a boring forecast, but one the models and the NHC seem to agree on at this point. I don't see any reason to disagree with them. As usual, watch what the NHC is saying and don't make any kind of life or property decisions based on anything you see here.
I'm. Starting my vacation tomorrow. Anyway I think we will see in September 5/3/2. But that's just me.
Quoting 556. PWBart31:



Wasn't Wilma a major? And she came after Katrina. I just remember Wilma was an intense storm.
Not the storm, the year.
General vicinity of 17N 81W? Any takers?



Quoting 580. StormJunkie:



Exactly...And at the same time; it's good to never let yourself get too old...Like Gro. But seriously. It is one thing for wishcasting to take place. It's one thing for people to not know any better. It's a different thing for folks like CaribBoy who find some enjoyment out of tropical systems. It's also understandable that some are just interested in learning which will sometimes lead predictions astray. Easy to understand those view points.

It is something completely different to come on day in and day out and proclaim that every wave is going to be more robust, move closer to 82.15W, and defy horrid conditions in spite of all prevailing logic. To continually say the NHC is wrong, or the Dr is wrong, or the others who know what they are talking about. If no one ever disputed those kinds of statements...Well then the people trying to learn wouldn't know any better until they see outlandish predictions fall short time and time again. So I don't see any problem in helping speed that learning process along by trying to provide as much accurate info as possible.

So, imho, it's good to have these things pointed out. If it gets repetitive it is because the same types of predictions are made time and time again. More often than not, they are stated as fact; or "likely" to happen...as opposed to a guess or hunch.

It's a blog. Everyone has the ability to state their opinion in the way they choose...And everyone else has the ability to respond the way they choose. I don't see anyone stepping up to defend poor hurricane2018 when Taz calls him names.
................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..................................
I've called Taz out more times than I can remember. He's an equal opportunist attacker and the majority of his posts do so. I'll say this for hurricane2018, he's been asked to add more meat to his posts and has done so over the past few days. Taz is Taz, he's not horrible, we are an intelligent male dominated blog. This equals lots of ego, knowledge, and varying opinions. Compared to the average blog with the same makeup, this is an A plus blog which usually models respect to all. For a tropical weather blog there is just no equal, not even close. Sorry messed up this quote, mine starts with I've called out Taz..........
Hey StormJunkie. Good to see ya and know we are both still around!

Also lets all try to remember to show PORTLIGHT some love. They do wonderful work.

All i know is its the time of year for us all to stay alert, especially you guys in the Gulf next week.

Im gone to the TV
For the record DSR...I have no problem with 2018 or Taz. Or WKC for that matter.

It's all part of the education and entertainment this blog provides; weAther it is psychological or scientific in nature.
Good to see you to K8e. Sorry if this is the first time saying hi this season.

Portlight does do great work. I miss the days of being able to work with them.
Quoting 574. AtHomeInTX:



Well, it may hae just moved into SW LA? Lol. I have no way of knowing that just watching this satellite.

Link


Does appear that way.


BAHA--- I was hoping for a little more rain but it all dissipated or moved to LA before getting here. Breeze.... exactly what was expected.
And not to leave out the ladies. Baha, ncstorm, Washi, Barb, AtHomeinTX, Chicklit and at least a dozen other regulars, we have more informed women here than any other weather blog by far.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Does appear that way.


BAHA--- I was hoping for a little more rain but it all dissipated or moved to LA before getting here. Breeze.... exactly what was expected.


Yeah, well there may be more to come. Just saw this.

Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD
·

- Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

No washout this evening, however re-development of heavy rainfall is possible towards sunrise Saturday. The heavy rainfall threat shifting into SW Louisiana during the afternoon. Hotter, drier by Labor Day and the middle of next week thanks to blocking high pressure. We'll need that high as tropical development is possible in the SW Gulf early next week.
Quoting 589. GatorWX:



Great song by great songwriter!


She is a hurricane?
Link
Quoting 580. StormJunkie:



Exactly...And at the same time; it's good to never let yourself get too old...Like Gro. But seriously. It is one thing for wishcasting to take place. It's one thing for people to not know any better. It's a different thing for folks like CaribBoy who find some enjoyment out of tropical systems. It's also understandable that some are just interested in learning which will sometimes lead predictions astray. Easy to understand those view points.

It is something completely different to come on day in and day out and proclaim that every wave is going to be more robust, move closer to 82.15W, and defy horrid conditions in spite of all prevailing logic. To continually say the NHC is wrong, or the Dr is wrong, or the others who know what they are talking about. If no one ever disputed those kinds of statements...Well then the people trying to learn wouldn't know any better until they see outlandish predictions fall short time and time again. So I don't see any problem in helping speed that learning process along by trying to provide as much accurate info as possible.

So, imho, it's good to have these things pointed out. If it gets repetitive it is because the same types of predictions are made time and time again.
More often than not, they are stated as fact; or "likely" to happen...as opposed to a guess or hunch.

It's a blog. Everyone has the ability to state their opinion in the way they choose...And everyone else has the ability to respond the way they choose. I don't see anyone stepping up to defend poor hurricane2018 when Taz calls him names.
See, the bolded part is what I pointed out in another post; it's a waste of time to just jeer and crack personal jokes. I noticed right away when you started SHOWING people who were suggesting something extremely unlikely exactly WHY it was practically impossible for their take on a scenario to play out. THAT'S what's been missing from the discourse as it pertains to WKC [and a couple of other bloggers, for that matter]. Taking your approach means that everybody in the blog benefits, because we ALL start thinking about why tropical systems behave the way they do, instead of just making wild prognostications based on our wishes or on imperfect understanding of climatology or the synoptic patterns. Since that's why [allegedly] we're here, this can only be a good thing.
Quoting 592. SomeRandomTexan:



Does appear that way.


BAHA--- I was hoping for a little more rain but it all dissipated or moved to LA before getting here. Breeze.... exactly what was expected.
Someday your rain will come....

Seems like that mid-coast area always misses out on the love....
Quoting 594. AtHomeInTX:



Yeah, well there may be more to come. Just saw this.

Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD
·

- Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

No washout this evening, however re-development of heavy rainfall is possible towards sunrise Saturday. The heavy rainfall threat shifting into SW Louisiana during the afternoon. Hotter, drier by Labor Day and the middle of next week thanks to blocking high pressure. We'll need that high as tropical development is possible in the SW Gulf early next week.
This sounds like good news... hope it pans out.
At the same time Baha...There's no changing that I'm a bit of a wise ass from time to time. Being aware of that helps me keep it down a bit sometimes...But other times I just have to let that donkey out the barn. ;-)
Quoting 553. TcuFrogs:

I've been lurking for several years and things have changed on this site, however I do find some's comments interesting reading. So for those that are inclined to answer this question, how far up the texas coast could invest 99 come or is everyone confident this will be a Mexico storm. For the record I live in Houston but work in Baton Rouge and have no desire to deal with a Hurricane
Hi TCu. I was living in Clearlake, Tx when Rita came through so I understand your feelings about hurricanes. I think others would agree that the future track of 99L would depend on how quickly it developed and how far north a circulation center formed. If 99L stays weak and moves over the Yucatan a Mexico landfall is most likely. A track as far north as the upper Texas coast is unlikely but not impossible. The track will become more clear in 48 hours - if it develops at all.
Quoting 565. hurricanes2018:



wind shear going down right now!!!!Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 16 Comments: 31113
Sorry for the offensive quote, but that's cool right there.... lol ....
And it's post 565, too ...
Quoting 566. K8eCane:

i heard that the last time a storm made it as far as Cristobal ( close to iceland anyway) was in the 60's. Forget which year. Wonder what the hurricane season was like that year? Wish i could remember the year.
Was it Faith? Faye?
Quoting 570. SLU:



In the post season review they concluded that SAL intrusion was the ultimate showstopper with Joyce in spite of the shear that started the degradation.
So the shear broke the circulation, and then the dry air got in as a result.... that makes sense.
Quoting 575. CARIBE182660:

Thanks for the information,sar2401,!! I am from Puerto Rico. I remember the Hurricane watches and warnings from my childhood, David, Hugo and Georges. All the people in the street helping each other, securing the windows and doors from the rain and winds. And then after the winds and rain, be with lighting candles in the night, making jokes and old stories without electric power. Was an unforgettable time. From then and until today, I follow Hurricanes in all parts of the world. Not to want damage or death, is to enjoy the view, perfection and greatness of one of the most powerful nature force.
Bien dicho....
Quoting 516. SLU:

Today is the 35th anniversary of the passage of Major Hurricane David in Dominica packing winds of 150mph and making it the most powerful hurricane to strike the Windward Islands since official hurricane records began in 1851.





Image and video hosting by TinyPic


I was 4 years old and lived in Ft. Lauderdale during Hurricane David.

My dad was in the Bahamas and was trying to get a 53' Bertram back to Ft. Lauderdale before the storm made landfall. They didn't make it.

My mother was notified the following day that all hands had been lost. There was no way they could have survived the storm. Miraculously, they pulled into Port Everglades the following day. The boat was a total wreck. The entire Tuna Tower was twisted with sections completely missing.

GFS 00z Nowcast...Actually, 2.5hrs from now cast...

NAM is a little further north than its 18z run.



CFS ensembles clustered offshore Brownsville, Corpus Christie area:



GEFS ensembles further south into Tampico area:



A couple factors will depend if this pushes into Mexico or moves further north into southern Texas. How far the Bermuda High's western flank noses in and if there will be a strong enough trough to induce a tug or pull north. If there is no trough and the High noses in should move into Mexico. Of course this hinges on the fact if we see development or not.
605. SLU
Quoting 596. BahaHurican:

Sorry for the offensive quote, but that's cool right there.... lol ....
And it's post 565, too ...
Was it Faith? Faye?
So the shear broke the circulation, and then the dry air got in as a result.... that makes sense.
Bien dicho....
See, the bolded part is what I pointed out in another post; it's a waste of time to just jeer and crack personal jokes. I noticed right away when you started SHOWING people who were suggesting something extremely unlikely exactly WHY it was practically impossible for their take on a scenario to play out. THAT'S what's been missing from the discourse as it pertains to WKC [and a couple of other bloggers, for that matter]. Taking your approach means that everybody in the blog benefits, because we ALL start thinking about why tropical systems behave the way they do, instead of just making wild prognostications based on our wishes or on imperfect understanding of climatology or the synoptic patterns. Since that's why [allegedly] we're here, this can only be a good thing.



Thank goodness because it was initially expected to reach the islands as a Cat 3.
Quoting 598. StormJunkie:

At the same time Baha...There's no changing that I'm a bit of a wise ass from time to time. Being aware of that helps me keep it down a bit sometimes...But other times I just have to let that donkey out the barn. ;-)
Never said that wasn't true.... lol.... but I can take a wise-ass who's saving prophet Balaam from himself [did you ever see that Bible story??? lol talk about a wise ass.... ].
607. SLU
Quoting 602. SFLWeatherWatch:



I was 4 years old and lived in Ft. Lauderdale during Hurricane David.

My dad was in the Bahamas and was trying to get a 53' Bertram back to Ft. Lauderdale before the storm made landfall. They didn't make it.

My mother was notified the following day that all hands had been lost. There was no way they could have survived the storm. Miraculously, they pulled into Port Everglades the following day. The boat was a total wreck. The entire Tuna Tower was twisted with sections completely missing.




Oh my....
Quoting StormJunkie:
GFS 00z Nowcast...Actually, 2.5hrs from now cast...



That lil blob might line up with this lil blob? As usual, looks like I'm between the rain areas.

Quoting 602. SFLWeatherWatch:



I was 4 years old and lived in Ft. Lauderdale during Hurricane David.

My dad was in the Bahamas and was trying to get a 53' Bertram back to Ft. Lauderdale before the storm made landfall. They didn't make it.

My mother was notified the following day that all hands had been lost. There was no way they could have survived the storm. Miraculously, they pulled into Port Everglades the following day. The boat was a total wreck. The entire Tuna Tower was twisted with sections completely missing.


Wow... your dad and the other hands were super lucky... David was at its wimpiest as it passed through here... imagine a more powerful version! That's a story to tell your kids...

Quoting 608. AtHomeInTX:



That lil blob might line up with this lil blob? As usual, looks like I'm between the rain areas.


Doesn't look like much is going on on the W side of HOU....
I have a funny feeling they are going to name the next invest "90L"
Geez... I'm yawning already, and it's only 11:30.... :o/
Quoting 539. ncstorm:

STS and WKC are constantly ragged on this blog and it gets quite annoying. Yes, they both do say some exasperating statements at time but we all do.. I find the constant picking on the verge of bullying and some of you are over 40 and parents which makes it even more disturbing...as a lurker today I was able to experience someone who was just observing the blog and I found it the community as a whole disappointing as people were not only going after said bloggers but plussing/cosigning the statements..Makes me wonder if people come here for the weather or just come here to see conflict..No one spoke up today except DSR..if you don't like someone's post then put them on ignore but the fact that there is a group that goes after a select group of bloggers just makes a lot of you look small in my opinion..I don't know if you were picked on while kids but some of you need to channel how you felt when it happen to you and stop it..I will say the blog had an air of "prickish" today and this is not what WU is about..

I'm not looking for plusses so don't get it twisted..I just felt I had to speak up and talk for those who don't have a voice on here and are clearly outnumbered..there is no trophies given out here and believe me there are other websites that talk about WU and how its not welcoming anymore..I instead would like to believe otherwise..

So if you need to go looking in your most sarcastic bag of tricks for a comment, go right ahead..I'll actually be spending time with my family which might do some of yall some good too..

As my 7 year would say Grow up!!


Thanks nc! Good post! I myself don't even use the ignore feature. I just ignore it myself, in my own head. I know who on here is legit and who isn't, for the most part. I know my join date says early '08, but I had another handle, swflboy and I joined back in '05 or '06 with that handle. I've seen so many come and go and it's unfortunate we've lost some of those folks. I don't post too much unless something is happening, but I'm always reading. I do get irritated by the seemingly intentional spelling errors, wild forecasting, the use of certain terms, poof, ""casting, etc, but I just keep scrolling. I try never to engage anyone, here or anywhere, I guess, especially online. It's more fun for me to just ignore them, NEVER quote and they tend to go away. I feel I have more the upper hand if I do so. I do however appreciate what you've written as you didn't single anyone out, but just stated relevancy. Before I just keep typing away, I'll end this conversation by say this: I don't remember how exactly I found this site, but it started my learning and understanding of the weather and climate so much. One thing led to another and now I have so much access to information than I ever could have imagined before this discovery. This site was the seed that developed my quest for meteorological knowledge. Coming on here, reading what the NHC says as well as what all us amateurs have to say is terrific. Perspectives are much better, imo, than imagining something as absolute. If anyone can't handle this forum, they probably should just stay off the web. I'd imagine those folks don't visit YT either lol.

Anyway, hope everyone is having a good Friday night! I kept jumping to random points and adding words, so hope it still makes sense.
Quoting 606. BahaHurican:

Never said that wasn't true.... lol.... but I can take a wise-ass who's saving prophet Balaam from himself [did you ever see that Bible story??? lol talk about a wise ass.... ].


I promise I won't be luring anyone to curse themselves using women of the night and spoiled meat.
Quoting 611. BahaHurican:

Geez... I'm yawning already, and it's only 11:30.... :o/
Only? I think it is passed my bedtime.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... your dad and the other hands were super lucky... David was at its wimpiest as it passed through here... imagine a more powerful version! That's a story to tell your kids...

Doesn't look like much is going on on the W side of HOU....


Nope not right now. Hope it does for txjac. I'm right about where the "m" in Beaumont is on that map. Might pull in some rain this way. There's an ULL somewhere to my west so maybe that'll help too. :)
Quoting 610. Grothar:

I have a funny feeling they are going to name the next invest "90L"


Maybe they'll surprise us and come out with 47L. That'd confuse us all!
617. JRRP
Quoting 610. Grothar:

I have a funny feeling they are going to name the next invest "90L"


Sorry Gro...nrti already has that prediction made. You're a few hours late on the draw. ;-)

Gator...Were you around here as K approached Fl?
Lol. BAHA. Don't feel bad I just did the new age version of walking into a room and forgetting why I did. I just opened a new tab and stared at it blankly for about 5 minutes. I'm sure I intended to go to some website. LOL! Gramma's tired. wait, did I say this already???
Quoting 612. GatorWX:



Thanks nc! Good post! I myself don't even use the ignore feature. I just ignore it myself, in my own head. I know who on here is legit and who isn't, for the most part. I know my join date says early '08, but I had another handle, swflboy and I joined back in '05 or '06 with that handle. I've so many come and go. I don't post too much unless something is happening, but I'm always reading. I do get irritated by the seemingly intentional spelling errors, wild forecasting, the use of certain terms, poof, ""casting, etc, but I just keep scrolling. I try never to engage anyone, here or anywhere, I guess, especially online. It's more fun for me to just ignore them, NEVER quote and they tend to go away. I feel I have more the upper hand if I do so. I do however appreciate what you've written as you didn't single anyone out, but just stated relevancy. Before I just keep typing away, I'll end this conversation by say this: I don't remember how exactly I found this site, but it started my learning and understanding of the weather and climate so much. One thing led to another and now I have so much access to information than I ever could have imagined before this discovery. This site was the seed that developed my quest for meteorological knowledge. Coming on here, reading what the NHC says as well as what all us amateurs have to say is terrific. Perspectives are much better, imo, than imagining something as absolute. If anyone can't handle this forum, they probably should just stay off the web. I'd imagine those folks don't visit YT either lol.

Anyway, hope everyone is having a good Friday night! I kept jumping to random points and adding words, so hope it still makes sense.
I remember that handle.... didn't remember that was you... lol ... you make a lot of sense, especially when you speak about the contribution of this blog to the improved understanding of wx... which IMO couldn't happen if diversity of views was curtailed.... I'm quitting Friday, hopefully in the next 10 minutes.... lol ... I'm headed off to bed. Can't believe I'm so beat I'm quitting the blog before midnight.... the heat today just sapped all my excess energy....

Night all...
Hello everyone, I have been snooping around this blog for the past few weeks and decided to join yesterday. I thought I'd use my first post to talk about the landfall of Hurricane Katrina--an event that changed the lives of many of my fellow southerners nine years ago today. I was a little kid--around 10 years old--when Katrina made its landfall near the MS/LA border. As Katrina made her northward trek, my school cancelled and my sister and I were so excited when my mom woke us up to let us know we didn't have school. Little did we know, little kids all over south Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana woke up to the sounds of strong wind and waves made by Katrina. Later, their pets, belongings, homes, and schools would be demolished by the terrible storm. Some of them, too, would lose their lives. It was a terrible day.

On another note, while I have been flipping through this blog, I have noticed that some of you bicker and fight like you are 7 year olds on the playground, yet you are older than 30 . As another poster a few posts ahead of me said, grow up!
Quoting 613. StormJunkie:



I promise I won't be luring anyone to curse themselves using women of the night and spoiled meat.
VERY glad to hear that.... lol....
Quoting 618. StormJunkie:



Sorry Gro...nrti already has that prediction made. You're a few hours late on the draw. ;-)

Gator...Were you around here as K approached Fl?


I must have been napping. And after reading some of these blogs tonight, I would suggest some of them do the same.
Quoting 619. AtHomeInTX:

Lol. BAHA. Don't feel bad I just did the new age version of walking into a room and forgetting why I did. I just opened a new tab and stared at it blankly for about 5 minutes. I'm sure I intended to go to some website. LOL! Gramma's tired. wait, did I say this already???
LOL.... I SOOOOOO understand this .... I feel like a whipped pup.... a deflated balloon... all the hot air gone... lol ...
Quoting 618. StormJunkie:



Sorry Gro...nrti already has that prediction made. You're a few hours late on the draw. ;-)

Gator...Were you around here as K approached Fl?


The first time I remember watching models and *perhaps reading the blog was during Ivan's development. I really don't remember too much from here, then. I do remember reading Dr M's blogs when Katrina was rolling in. I know '05, I was here often and for good reason lol. Kinda busy that year if my memory is serving me correctly. I do remember Ivan though. Was in the bullseye for awhile then. '04, what a wild year for FL!
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... I SOOOOOO understand this .... I feel like a whipped pup.... a deflated balloon... all the hot air gone... lol ...


Lol.
Quoting 620. BahaHurican:

I remember that handle.... didn't remember that was you... lol ... you make a lot of sense, especially when you speak about the contribution of this blog to the improved understanding of wx... which IMO couldn't happen if diversity of views was curtailed.... I'm quitting Friday, hopefully in the next 10 minutes.... lol ... I'm headed off to bed. Can't believe I'm so beat I'm quitting the blog before midnight.... the heat today just sapped all my excess energy....

Night all...


See ya Baha. Sleep well! btw, they booted me, I believe, for making a remark about Alexandra Steele, which I certainly regret. I was young-er then.
So what you guys prediction on 99L, I think cat one or two.
Quoting 621. Sharkicane:

Hello everyone, I have been snooping around this blog for the past few weeks and decided to join yesterday. I thought I'd use my first post to talk about the landfall of Hurricane Katrina--an event that changed the lives of many of my fellow southerners nine years ago today. I was a little kid--around 10 years old--when Katrina made its landfall near the MS/LA border. As Katrina made her northward trek, my school cancelled and my sister and I were so excited when my mom woke us up to let us know we didn't have school. Little did we know, little kids all over south Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana woke up to the sounds of strong wind and waves made by Katrina. Later, their pets, belongings, homes, and schools would be demolished by the terrible storm. Some of them, too, would lose their lives. It was a terrible day.

On another note, while I have been flipping through this blog, I have noticed that some of you bicker and fight like you are 7 year olds on the playground, yet you are older than 30 . As another poster a few posts ahead of me said, grow up!


Good to have you and welcome! You'll learn who to ignore and you'll laugh inside your brain at some of the blatant ignorance. It's easy to belittle when you're parked in front of a computer screen with no physical connection to the other party. As, I said, I laugh and imagine those people as having a very lame and unfulfilling life. I'm not a religious man, but they sure are the people you look at and say, "I'll pray for you". Know what I mean? Stick around, learn, figure out who is worthy and who is not of your attention.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
So what you guys prediction on 99L, I think cat one or two.



what's get a TD 1st. Like I been saying. You really jump the gune on things what's 1st get a TD and then we can talk about how strong it gets I think we may see nothin out of 99L at all but will see
I like when you all reminisce. It reminds me of those warm nights when I could hear the faint voice of Paul Revere in the distance, and when our neighbor "Mrs. Ross" asked my mother if she had anymore red cloth left.
632. beell
Quoting 604. GTstormChaserCaleb:

NAM is a little further north than its 18z run.



CFS ensembles clustered offshore Brownsville, Corpus Christie area:



GEFS ensembles further south into Tampico area:



A couple factors will depend if this pushes into Mexico or moves further north into southern Texas. How far the Bermuda High's western flank noses in and if there will be a strong enough trough to induce a tug or pull north. If there is no trough and the High noses in should move into Mexico. Of course this hinges on the fact if we see development or not.


It may be more a question of how quickly the sub-trop ridge rebuilds west after passage of the current trough. Mid-level flow goes kinda zonal over the southern northern third of the US so there may be no steering influence to consider from that direction.. Shear looks low, and an additional tap to Pacific moisture seems likely. 99L should be able to intensify after clearing the Yucatan Peninsula. If you wanted to hedge your bet, Tampico would give you a nice split, lol.
Quoting 631. Grothar:

I like when you all reminisce. It reminds me of those warm nights when I could hear the faint voice of Paul Revere in the distance, and when our neighbor "Mrs. Ross" asked my mother if she had anymore red cloth left.


...and then there's people that belittle themselves! I didn't go to Prague by the way. :( Instead, packing soon and moving to California for work. Should be fun. I love it out there!
Alright, there have been a few throw backs to remember K. Here's mine. And here's to being thankful it wasn't another 50 miles W on landfall. That turned out very badly for Gulf Breeze, and areas to the E of NO...But we also didn't see the French Quarter with 10+ feet of water in it.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Not having the levies would have been a blessing. The water could have drained a little better. If this track holds just to the W of NO this is what happens because she should be a 4 or 5.

THIS COULD HAPPEN!




Quoting StormJunkie:
Wow. Dr Jeff is saying what we were saying 30 hrs ago. They need to start the evac.


Quoting wcta:
All,

Living in Slidell LA...sent my family east just before noon on I-10. They are now east of Pensacola (driving to Cen FL)...traffic was busy but moving with no problems. I'm sure it won't last.


Quoting MSY68:
I agree Lefy and Panhandle...I live in The Garden District of NO...I think I can kiss my house goodbye


Quoting leftyy420:
WE DON'T HAVE HOPE. SHE IS COMMING AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO. THE DIRECTOR OF THE NHC SAID THIS DESTRUCTION WILL BE NOTHING LIKE CAMILE OR ANDREW. SHE IS MUCH BIGGER AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO NOW. tHAT WAS HIS WORDS. I AM JUST STATING HIS WORDS. GO NOW
Quoting beell:


It may be more a question of how quickly the sub-trop ridge rebuilds west after passage of the current trough. Mid-level flow goes kinda zonal over the southern third of the US so there may be no steering influence to consider from that direction.. Shear looks low, and an additional tap to Pacific moisture seems likely. 99L should be able to intensify after clearing the Yucatan Peninsula. If you wanted to hedge your bet, Tampico would give you a nice split, lol.


If anything that ridge just seems to keep building. On the GFS anyway.

Quoting 633. nwobilderburg:



lol


185 kts. How could it possibly predict that? Will the water beneath be 40C? That's odd! I don't think I've ever seen any model forecast that high of winds, however reliable a model.
638. beell
Quoting 636. AtHomeInTX:



If anything that ridge just seems to keep building. On the GFS anyway.




I'm with ya, AtHome. It would keep you and I on the good side of things.
:)

Tuesday morning at 500 mb. 99L would be about mid-BOC in this model.

I knew I was going to like it here. August 29th and we already have a frost warning tonight....

Katrina was a surprise for us. She rolled in late in the afternoon (about 630pm) about 15 miles southwest of here (Miami-Dade/Broward county line). An 80-mph storm, but I think I only saw maybe 70 mph winds and some heavy rains... nothing compared to what Wilma would do later, coming from the opposite direction.

If I can get this picture embedded properly, you'll see what appears to be sunrise as I look east from my house, but it's Katrina's first feeder band reflecting back the setting sun that is behind me.

Reminds me of the Pink Floyd tune, "Two Suns in the Sunset"



Or this way, I suppose: Link
Quoting beell:


I'm with ya, AtHome. It would keep you and I on the good side of things.
:)

Tuesday morning at 500 mb.



Yep. :)
At Home and Beell: This is ghastly. All that moisture got ripped from us like a NYC pocket-pincher, what on Earth?



This is the biggest Texas forecast bust I've ever witnessed.
Deliriously bored with the Atlantic tonight. That makes me happy as a citizen of the "Conch Republic".

From the Key West NWS discussion

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. Tad HIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

I will take that over Wilma, Georges, Katrina, Andrew, Mitch, Agnes, ad infinitum. -take care

Quoting 625. GatorWX:



The first time I remember watching models and *perhaps reading the blog was during Ivan's development. I really don't remember too much from here, then. I do remember reading Dr M's blogs when Katrina was rolling in. I know '05, I was here often and for good reason lol. Kinda busy that year if my memory is serving me correctly. I do remember Ivan though. Was in the bullseye for awhile then. '04, what a wild year for FL!
I worked all of the storms that hit Fl that year, got hurt on the last one, that ended my career, but what hell of a 3 mo. it was!!!
Quoting Dakster:
I knew I was going to like it here. August 29th and we already have a frost warning tonight....



Alaska is so beautiful! on TV. :)
SJ, my fondest memory of Katrina approaching sfl was her intensity at landfall. Although a "minimal" cane, she sure packed a punch and didn't seem to weaken on approach at all. I believe (to lazy to look) it became a 60kt ts over the glades, but it seemed obvious to me, even then, this was not going to behave as predicted as it headed wsw. It seemed more and more likely this was going much further west than forecast at that time.

Next, I remember waking the 27th, I suppose (again tired and too lazy to look it up), and finding it to be a monstrous cat 5. I was glued to the TV and WU. I had never witnessed anything like that in my lifetime. We had Charley the year before, but Katrina looked 100x more menacing. As the forecast moved further w and settled on NOLA, I was shocked at the level of insecurity with both officials and avg citizens. Then, after the levees broke and watching all those people helplessly wait for anything to happen... A very sad event in American history indeed!
Quoting redwagon:
At Home and Beell: This is ghastly. All that moisture got ripped from us like a NYC pocket-pincher, what on Earth?



This is the biggest Texas forecast bust I've ever witnessed.


I don't know really. seems to be dripping outside here again. still holding at .01" for the day. Guess we'll see what tomorrow will bring.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's why I use [Show Bad] instead of [Show All].
Katrina was an above average afternoon thunderstorm to us - absolutely drenching rains, some unexpectedly gusty conditions. Andrew was the real deal, even though the worst of the cat 5 winds passed offshore to our north here in New Providence. I remember you talking about that boat. Definitely you wouldn't have wanted to have been on that during Andrew...
Classic doesn't have those features. One of the things I like about Classic is it doesn't show who plussed a post. That's a good thing to me, and was a bad feature to implement. It has led to more hard feelings than it has ever made the atmosphere better. The only thing worse would be to see who minused your posts.

I was supposed to take the boat out on a shakedown run for three days. I had downloaded a surface map on the weatherfax the night before and didn't like what I saw. That was on a Tuesday, so it must have been the 18th. I think Andrew had become a TS but it was way south and didn't look like it would become anything. I called the NHC the next morning. They had a marine desk then, and boaters could actually call in and get a customized offshore forecast. I didn't know who it was I talked to. I didn't make note of it because it was just one of many phone calls I made to the marine desk back then. I told the forecaster I planned to take her out Friday and be back Monday morning. Andrew was degenerating back to a TD but this forecaster thought Andrew was going to entering more favorable waters and he would become a hurricane. He urged me to put off my sail until at least Monday. I had two weeks so I thought it was better to err on the side of caution.

By Thursday, the 20th, Andrew wasn't looking much better and most of the models had him going OTS. I regretted postponing the sail and almost went ahead with it, but that forecaster was pretty adamant, so I stuck with the plan. By Friday, the 21st, the weatherfax showed a pretty decent storm but still going OTS. Now I was really regretting not getting on with shaking down the boat. I decided to download the fax one more time before I went to bed. Andrew was declared then so it must have been the Saturday 0200 advisory. By later that morning, the track had changed and it looked like a strengthening storm was headed right toward Nassau. Now I was more worried about getting out of there than the boat. I was in a marina on the north end and got her lashed up to a very well constructed concrete pier. I was pretty confident the boat would be OK - I just wanted to make sure I would be at that point. I was able to get a flight back to Miami late Saturday, the 22nd. I hung out at MIA, along with about a zillion other people on standby from then until about 3:00 Sunday afternoon. I got a seat on one of the last planes out of Miami.

I got back to California and thought I could call about the boat...until I turned on the TV. I don't remember exactly how long it was until the phones in Nassau were working again but is seems like it was at least three days. I was watching the coverage on CNN on Monday, and a Coast Guard helicopter flew directly over what I recognized as the marina. I didn't see my boat. All I saw was a bunch of masts sticking out from the water, so I knew what the first phone call would be from the Bahamas. I found out the name of the forecaster I talked to and wrote him a thank you letter, since he saved my life. I invited him on a cruise when I got my next boat and he said he's like to do that, since he was also a sailor. I called his home about a year later to let him know I'd be back the next month with a new boat. His wife told me he had died about two months before my call. I later found out it was by his own hand. :-( If there's a heaven, I hope he and I will still be able to make that sail.
Quoting Dakster:
I knew I was going to like it here. August 29th and we already have a frost warning tonight....

Just wait for the first blizzard warning. :-)
Quoting meself:

Is this the backup to the East of the monster monsoon trof? As of noon today, everything was going thataway.
Quoting 644. rasputin32327:

I worked all of the storms that hit Fl that year, got hurt on the last one, that ended my career, but what hell of a 3 mo. it was!!!


Seemed like every weekend for awhile. It was wild! In both '04 and '05, I remember all the folks say the heck with it and just leaving their shutters up all season. It was that or up and then down every week or two. It was a very interesting period. I think one of my favorite memories and to most, this may sound odd, was not having power for 9 days after Charley. We fared pretty well in Englewood, although Charley came ashore only 13 linear miles south of me. It was so peaceful. Hot, yes, but aside from many having generators, it just felt unique to be without something you take for granted. Strange thing was, a block away at my grandmother's house, the power never even flickered. That was incredible little storm!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gWMfZA3sY8Y" target="_blank">Link
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gWMfZA3sY8Y" target="_blank">Link
Think I'm just a tad too west here maybe. Sorry Texas. :( Take care my Louisiana friends.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT AUG 30 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...LOUISIANA/TEXAS COASTS...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE LOWER TX
COAST HAS DIMINISHED...WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH RESPECT TO
ANY FURTHER RE-DVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MEMBERS SHOW
CONVECTION RE-FIRING LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE LA/UPPER TX
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER. AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...MANY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
MEMBERS SHOW AN AXIS OF VERY HEAVY RAINS CENTERING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LA....INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR -- WHICH
SHOW SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4-6+ INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK. WHILE THE
LATEST FLASH GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THIS
REGION...LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WERE TO OCCUR.
Sorry for the double post folks. St. Bernard, just below New Orleans storm footage posted. Before the levees broke. Water channeled up and into Chamette then New Orleans east through the Mississippi Gulf Outlet. The death of the southern cypress swamp and our storm surge sponge.
99L Giving us rain here in Jamaica, I hope it doesnt linger too long, over the island.
or I could read the local one. Lake Charles...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN SHRA/ISO TSRA AREA OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/MOD SHRA SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SE TX/S LA. NOTABLE MID
LEVEL SPIN JUST OFF THE SE TX COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
MID LEVEL VORT MAX FROM THE EARLIER TSRA CLUSTER OVER THE NW GULF.

THE NAM & HRRR CONTINUES TO SIGNAL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA OVER EXTREME SE TX/S LA BETWEEN 06-12Z...WITH POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF ECHOS SETTING UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING ONCE THIS REMNANT VORT MAX MOVES INLAND AND
INCREASED LIFT SETS UP FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. WITH
THE HIGH PRECIP H20 VALUES ALREADY IN PLACE (00Z LCH SOUNDING @
2.27") WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET 2-3" OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE BEFORE ALL SAID AND DONE BY SAT
EVENING/EARLY SUN. THIS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR SE TX/C AND S LA. BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AFTER DAYBREAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA.
She's approaching Fl in these out takes.

Quoting MandyFSU:
I know there's always SOMEONE out there who freaks out and says "Hurricanes? What? Holy cow- I gotta buy supplies!" like 20 minutes before the storm hits... but still. I just wish TWC would do more like what we do here. But then again, I'm sure they have to be careful b/c if they started spouting theories like our dear StormTop, half the country would be thrown into a panic.

No offense StormTop. :-)


Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone of us could take Schwartz's job and do it better.
(I could not stand Dave Schwartz...So painful to watch)

Good grief the Community Standards violations...

Quoting FSUstormnut:
I don't think Katrina will make it to hurricane status. It has way too much dry air wraping into it.


Quoting icebear7:

Quote StormJunkie
That is funny Dee, some people seem to think that StormT and Lefty are the same person and that one night he had a four hour argument with himself.LOL.


Quoting icebear7:
i did that once as a joke on a basic chatty message board, i made up a new ID and then proceeded to pick a fight with myself...after an hour or two, "we" made up and arranged a sisterly shopping trip...LOL


A rare non CAPS post...

Quoting STORMTOP:
valence it will be a monday night landfall this is certain unless whats developing in the atmosphere now has completely changed...im afraid the ms coast is in for a rude awakening...


Quoting oriondarkwood:
Looks like the eye of Katrina is coming onshore just north of Maimi, and I looking at it right (http://tinyurl.com/9k4ho)


Quoting GetReal:
I also see that ridge holding, Katrina will have to continue further west at a slightly faster forward speed. Central gulf coast should monitor the storm closely. TROF is NOT digging southeast as forecast.


Quoting aquak9:
gonna be a roll of the dice on second landfall...texas to cedar key..either way, gonna be ugly


Quoting leftyy420:
se weatherguy if ur in here this is all i was trying to say in your blog dog. to prepare for the worse cause some parts of miami are getting crushed and i feel bad for those people


Quoting Joshfsu123:
NHC forecast path has landfall very near to the Apalachicola area or maybe just east of there. The forecast path has been around the same area for the past two days really.

The Discussion isn't out yet to hear their reasoning for this.


Quoting StormJunkie:
If any one every defends Schwarts again I think I will repoort you as being obscene and it being spam.


Quoting hurricane79:
If you had told me 24 hours ago that Katrina would be within 60 miles West of Key Largo, moving SW at 4 MPH, I would have said you were insane, but it falls into a scenario that could occur..


Well that raps up "Remembering times gone by"...
Schwartz was awesome. Retract your blasphemy, SJ.
Was amazing to watch day after day of coverage of Katrina and our inability to respond to such a disaster. We are the best in the world by far in responding to disasters and we do it worldwide. And yet Katrina brought us to our knees. Kinda like a small window into what a response to the Madrid fault quake of 8.0 again would look like. Government was faulted hard core and there is blame there, but there was just no way in. Coast guard did everything they could. Magnitude of it all was and still is hard to comprehend.
Quoting 658. StormJunkie:

She's approaching Fl in these out takes.



(I could not stand Dave Schwartz...So painful to watch)

Good grief the Community Standards violations...





A rare non CAPS post...

















Well that raps up "Remembering times gone by"...


That's too funny. You think he's still around? Who was the other one? FLV?
He called it! ;)
Quoting 651. GatorWX:



Seemed like every weekend for awhile. It was wild! In both '04 and '05, I remember all the folks say the heck with it and just leaving their shutters up all season. It was that or up and then down every week or two. It was a very interesting period. I think one of my favorite memories and to most, this may sound odd, was not having power for 9 days after Charley. We fared pretty well in Englewood, although Charley came ashore only 13 linear miles south of me. It was so peaceful. Hot, yes, but aside from many having generators, it just felt unique to be without something you take for granted. Strange thing was, a block away at my grandmother's house, the power never even flickered. That was incredible little storm!
Couldn't put a face on the name, but I love Dave Schwartz. Looked it up on YT. Haven't watched TWC for probably two years, but he was one of the ones I liked. I didn't like him for his meteorological skills, but he is goofy enough to be quite entertaining. He just had a level of distance or something. Idk, he's cool though! I'd shoot the !@#$% with him over a few beers.
Quoting 659. KoritheMan:

Schwartz was awesome. Retract your blasphemy, SJ.


This is the first post I have ever flagged. I hope WU doesn't take that too seriously though...lmao.

Gator, I think you are thinking of JFV. Many claim he is still around, and that ST is still around...Other names, but still hiding in this dark meteorological coroner of the internet.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
or I could read the local one. Lake Charles...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
They must be seeing something happening tomorrow that's not readily apparent on the satellite. The only actual rain is in the areas that are red. The white stuff is clouds. No rain anywhere in Alabama. There's a shortwave trough that should be coming through Texas an Louisiana later today, so maybe that's what they think will set off more rain. I hope so for your sake because we aren't going to get anything out of this "storm".

kinda interesting. what I can understand. :)



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0333
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1141 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...CENTRAL LA...FAR SE TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300340Z - 300940Z

SUMMARY...MODELS PREDICT THE PLAUSIBLE ONSET OF MESOSCALE FORCING
WHICH PRECEDES A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL IN THEIR QPF. RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS GIVE US CONFIDENCE IN RAIN INITIATING NEAR THE LA/TX COAST
BY 06-08Z...WITH EXPANSION OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND THEREAFTER. LOCAL
RATES OF 3"/HOUR COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...MODELS ANALYZED A LOW JUST OFFSHORE WHICH HAD A CORE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS FORECAST TO
STRETCH AND BECOME PART OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST...SWEEPING UP UNUSUALLY MOIST AIR. PRE-CONVECTIVE PW
VALUES OF MORE THAN 2.25 INCHES...AND POST-CONVECTIVE VALUES OF
2.5 INCHES ARE 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY...AN
IMPRESSIVE FEAT AT THIS LATITUDE. SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE FORMATION
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THE RAP PREDICTS A DIURNAL ACCELERATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF TO AROUND 35 KT AT 900 MB. BY
06-08Z THIS YIELDS INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT FLOW COINCIDENT WITH
HEAVY QPF FROM A NUMBER OF HIRES MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z WRF
ARW...NMM...AND SEVERAL HRRR RUNS. THE MODEL TREND IS TO FAVOR
SOUTHWEST LA AND FAR SE TX FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHEREAS CONVECTION
FARTHER EAST IN LA MAY LACK A FOCUSING MECHANISM.

EARLY ON...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS STRADDLING THE LA/TX LINE WILL
BE FAVORED FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. BUT WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
PRECLUDING STRONG COLD POOLS THE EVENT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
INLAND PAST I-10 INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MORNING...AS DEEP LAYER
FORCING SPREADS IN THAT DIRECTION. ISOLATED RATES UP TO 3"/HOUR
ARE LIKELY...WHICH MAKES THE HIGH FFG NUMBERS IN THIS REGION
ACHIEVABLE...AND WOULD BE ESPECIALLY OF CONCERN FOR THOSE IN URBAN
AREAS OR THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH OUTLYING AREAS.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

Quoting sar2401:
They must be seeing something happening tomorrow that's not readily apparent on the satellite. The only actual rain is in the areas that are red. The white stuff is clouds. No rain anywhere in Alabama. There's a shortwave trough that should be coming through Texas an Louisiana later today, so maybe that's what they think will set off more rain. I hope so for your sake because we aren't going to get anything out of this "storm".



Yeah. I think that discussion, the last one I just posted explains it.
Quoting 665. StormJunkie:



This is the first post I have ever flagged. I hope WU doesn't take that too seriously though...lmao.

Gator, I think you are thinking of JFV. Many claim he is still around, and that ST is still around...Other names, but still hiding in this dark meteorological coroner of the internet.


JFV is still around, has made short appearances last three years. More amusing that troll, only "troll" to have somewhat of a cult following here. Some of our long time members can pick him out when he decides to return.
Quoting 645. AtHomeInTX:



Alaska is so beautiful! on TV. :)


Even better in person! I don't see myself getting tired of seeing the mountains. Although the first winter will be a challenge getting around in.
No measurable precip at all last 3 days at IAH or DWH, two closest sites to my house, and I know it didn't rain.


Not 25 miles away several different waves of rain at the Galleria. 99L will be too far South. Been a miserably dry Summer, hoping for a real El Nino and a wet Winter.
Been miserably dry since 2011, actually.

Back in the 2000s, it used to rain in the Summer here, sea breeze storms, inverted troughs rotating around the sub-tropical high, tropical disturbances or storms.

Now, 10% sea breeze coverage, and only on days when PW is near 2 inches and the ridge isn't overhead. Otherwise nada.
AtHomeInTX - I hope that you get rain soon... I know you could use it.
Quoting Dakster:


Even better in person! I don't see myself getting tired of seeing the mountains. Although the first winter will be a challenge getting around in.


I've lived in some cold snowy places. Germany being the coldest. But I don't think I could handle that level of cold again. Though I do love the mountains. Haven't seen them since I lived in El Paso. Alaska is beautiful but I think it is grossly unfair that some place that gets THAT cold should have to put up with THAT many mosquitoes in the summer! :)
Quoting 651. GatorWX:



Seemed like every weekend for awhile. It was wild! In both '04 and '05, I remember all the folks say the heck with it and just leaving their shutters up all season. It was that or up and then down every week or two. It was a very interesting period. I think one of my favorite memories and to most, this may sound odd, was not having power for 9 days after Charley. We fared pretty well in Englewood, although Charley came ashore only 13 linear miles south of me. It was so peaceful. Hot, yes, but aside from many having generators, it just felt unique to be without something you take for granted. Strange thing was, a block away at my grandmother's house, the power never even flickered. That was incredible little storm!
Quoting 663. rasputin32327:
I was with progress energy then, and it was a very scarey time. we had people all over us to plead to please have their power back, when we did get it cleared, it still took a day or so to turn it on, that was hurricane #1, we had three more to go, I didn't get home until oct, 19!!!

Quoting 665. StormJunkie:



This is the first post I have ever flagged. I hope WU doesn't take that too seriously though...lmao.

Gator, I think you are thinking of JFV. Many claim he is still around, and that ST is still around...Other names, but still hiding in this dark meteorological coroner of the internet.


Yes, JFV. Taz's enemy #1 lol. So many accusations and sighting through the years. ST seemed to get forgotten by most, but is certainly well remembered. ALL CAPS, like Chuck Norris. I just remember all, "that's JFV" posts. Funny anyone would even care. Just move on, give them no attention and as Taz would proclaim, "poof".
Quoting Dakster:
AtHomeInTX - I hope that you get rain soon... I know you could use it.


Thanks Dak. We can always use the rain. Although we usually get a whole lot at once or nothing. Last month we got 6 inches in less than 3 hours. Although the fishing, and catching, in the front yard was handy. lol. Other parts of Texas still hurting as you can see by Red's, Ed's posts. The state as a whole has had some more rain but boy it sure seems to miss the same places a lot.
Looks Like the GFS Predictions for the Tropical Low Pressure Systems in the Atlantic are beginning to pan out. The system nearest the Southern Windward islands has also acquired modest spin to it...Let's all keep Vigilant in the islands. Another Invest may not be too distant...
Quoting 673. StormJunkie:




That's the one I rolled upon. The 60's and 70's seemed to have been more fun for some than others.
Quoting 678. AtHomeInTX:



Thanks Dak. We can always use the rain. Although we usually get a whole lot at once or nothing. Last month we got 6 inches in less than 3 hours. Although the fishing, and catching, in the front yard was handy. lol. Other parts of Texas still hurting as you can see by Red's, Ed's posts. The state as a whole has had some more rain but boy it sure seems to miss the same places a lot.


I don't like to see any area hurting... Thanks for the update. And I have been there with being able to fish in the front yard and then next year you can't water your "dirt" yard because the wells are going dry and the salt water is moving in...
Quoting 675. AtHomeInTX:



I've lived in some cold snowy places. Germany being the coldest. But I don't think I could handle that level of cold again. Though I do love the mountains. Haven't seen them since I lived in El Paso. Alaska is beautiful but I think it is grossly unfair that some place that gets THAT cold should have to put up with THAT many mosquitoes in the summer! :)


Bugs can be bad here. The white socks are the worst as they get a piece of you with them. They are known to follow you for miles. Neighbors kids had them land on top of her head and her parents thought she fell and split her head open there was so much blood. This year, I never made it to the areas where they were bad, although a cabin we stayed in had mosquito netting... Although we didn't need it. (Not that I am looking to stay in areas where they are bad...)

I'll let you in on a little secret, there are PLENTY of places in the lower 48 that are a whole lot colder than where we are in Alaska. The trade off is the amount of snow we get and once winter is under way it doesn't melt... Where I am, gets more snow than the actual "City of Anchorage"... Or so I have been told. Let you know in May of 2015.
Quoting 652. midgulfmom:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gWMfZA3sY8Y" target="_blank">Link


Another good one:

Quoting Dakster:


I don't like to see any area hurting... Thanks for the update. And I have been there with being able to fish in the front yard and then next year you can't water your "dirt" yard because the wells are going dry and the salt water is moving in...


Yep. All sounds familiar. Seem to be in the land of extremes here. We had Rita's winds in 05. Ike's water everywhere in 08. Then our rainfall started declining in 09. 2011 we had the severe drought. Last winter was record cold and forever below normal temperatures. UGH! We were still in drought until we got that big rain here in July. Even that was record breaking for how fast it fell. But mostly, it's just hot and very humid. :)
Quoting Dakster:


Bugs can be bad here. The white socks are the worst as they get a piece of you with them. They are known to follow you for miles. Neighbors kids had them land on top of her head and her parents thought she fell and split her head open there was so much blood. This year, I never made it to the areas where they were bad, although a cabin we stayed in had mosquito netting... Although we didn't need it. (Not that I am looking to stay in areas where they are bad...)

I'll let you in on a little secret, there are PLENTY of places in the lower 48 that are a whole lot colder than where we are in Alaska. The trade off is the amount of snow we get and once winter is under way it doesn't melt... Where I am, gets more snow than the actual "City of Anchorage"... Or so I have been told. Let you know in May of 2015.


Oh no! Those bugs sound horrible! Poor little girl! About the worst we've got here so far is west nile popping up in the area again. And I'll wait on that snow report.
To quote myself, "ST seemed to get forgotten by most, but is certainly well remembered."
Yea, I'm spent. Night all

Go Atlantic!


Quoting StormJunkie:
She's approaching Fl in these out takes.




Well that raps up "Remembering times gone by"...
I remember it all well. For newer members, there was no quote button and no embedded graphics. Dr. Masters posted updates with links to graphics but also no embedded graphics. We didn't have page after page of the latest model runs. If you wanted to look at pictures you had to exit and go to the tropical page for what little there was there. There are hundreds of posts missing from people who were permabanned. Compared to those days, the blog today is a land of lemonade fountains and prancing unicorns. Anyone who gets their feelings hurt here and can't deal with it should stick to the cute kitten video section of FB. :-)
Quoting 682. Dakster:



Bugs can be bad here. The white socks are the worst as they get a piece of you with them. They are known to follow you for miles. Neighbors kids had them land on top of her head and her parents thought she fell and split her head open there was so much blood. This year, I never made it to the areas where they were bad, although a cabin we stayed in had mosquito netting... Although we didn't need it. (Not that I am looking to stay in areas where they are bad...)

I'll let you in on a little secret, there are PLENTY of places in the lower 48 that are a whole lot colder than where we are in Alaska. The trade off is the amount of snow we get and once winter is under way it doesn't melt... Where I am, gets more snow than the actual "City of Anchorage"... Or so I have been told. Let you know in May of 2015.


More of a maritime climate, no?
Quoting GatorWX:
To quote myself, "ST seemed to get forgotten by most, but is certainly well remembered."
Yea, I'm spent. Night all

Go Atlantic!


GN, Gator.
Quoting GatorWX:
To quote myself, "ST seemed to get forgotten by most, but is certainly well remembered."
Yea, I'm spent. Night all

Go Atlantic!




Night Gator. :)
Quoting 688. GatorWX:



More of a maritime climate, no?


I guess - the Ocean and the warm japanese current keep things a little warmer than the interior of the state.

Here is the Wiki on it:

The climate of Anchorage, Alaska is a subarctic climate (Köppen climate classification Dfc) due to its short, cool summers. Average daytime summer temperatures range from approximately 55 to 78 degrees Fahrenheit (13 to 26 degrees Celsius); average daytime winter temperatures are about 5 to 30 degrees (-15 to -1 degrees Celsius). Anchorage has a frost-free growing season that averages slightly over 100 days.
I thought it was further down, closer to Juneau. Again, tired!



Alright, out for real
Quoting 692. GatorWX:

I thought it was further down, closer to Juneau. Again, tired!



Alright, out for real


Juneau is in a subarctic rainforest.
Ah! There it is. Coming down pretty hard too.

695. TXCWC
GFS Enkf
img src=" photo enkf_zps04ce810e.png">

img src=" photo enkf120_zps3fc9d32f.png">
What happened to all the convection suddenly??
Back in '04 and '05 everyone said these storms were a result of global warming, now called climate change, and will continue for the next 20 yrs. I find it interesting that no one is blaming this several year calm pattern on climate change! Does climate change always have to be mass destruction?
Think about it!
GFS ensemble member #9 as of the 0z GFS run. I want this. I want this so badly. I'm pretty much in dead center of that image.

PLEASE.

no no you dont need that?
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LAC019-301200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0034.140830T0958Z-140830T1200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
CALCASIEU LA-
458 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...LAKE
CHARLES...IOWA...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 456 AM CDT LAKE CHARLES RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR OCCURRING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN... MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
Hello, I am new to this blog...
I come here to learn, and get the latest updates on the blog...
Thanks everyone...


That being said I am taking my family from Canada to Varadero, Cuba for a beach holiday... So passing on any storms from Sept 7 - 14 would be great!!!
Whatever happened to DestinJeff and Dewey? I remember those two from my lurking days. Seemed like they were like able enough, but now both have disappeared. Always made me laugh.
Quoting 662. GatorWX:

He called it! ;)


Stormtop AND Joe B called Katrina before she had even gotten her back end off the african coast lol
I know lots of people gave stormtop a lot of grief because he did seem to be a NO doomcaster with every storm that came along at first. Then when Katrina actually followed his forecast and after she was over, i have never seen him on here again. I have sort of wondered and worried about him through the years.
Quoting 704. K8eCane:


Stormtop AND Joe B called Katrina before she had even gotten her back end off the african coast lol


I am remembering a different storm. I think Katrina actually originated near the Bahamas. Sorry. I have CRS big time.
still going up!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
weather has been great here in e cen florida the extreme heat we had for a couple wks ago seems gone now its just hot.
I am watching 33 west this morning



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive during the
next couple of days, but land interaction will likely limit
significant development while the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development once the
system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
what is the red at45 west!!
Mostly sunny! Lol It is Overcast and 84 Not looking good for the sun to come out today

Going to be another hot one here in south Florida......Not a day for us "normal" people to be on the boat....Too many crazies on the holiday weekends....
mmmm? GFS 12Z shows a storm in the central atlantic moving W than NW then high pressure ridge moving back in and moving back W/WNW,interesting.
Quoting 702. KrAzEJeff:

Hello, I am new to this blog...
I come here to learn, and get the latest updates on the blog...
Thanks everyone...


That being said I am taking my family from Canada to Varadero, Cuba for a beach holiday... So passing on any storms from Sept 7 - 14 would be great!!!

Welcome to the Twilight Zone.
Quoting 719. hurricanewatcher61:

mmmm? GFS 12Z shows a storm in the central atlantic moving W than NW then high pressure ridge moving back in and moving back W/WNW,interesting.
i saw that to this morning maybe the tropical wave at 33 west
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074 -TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262-311100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
556 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

$$

97. Weatherwatcher007 5:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2005 Hide this comment.
An eyewall replacement cycle as a cat 3. This storm will be a monster. I think Katrina has another terrible surprise but I don't know whether it will be the track or the intensity. There is something else to this storm than everyone sees. I don't know. . .
Action


OMG...these posts are something else. Thanks SJ
Quoting 718. PalmBeachWeather:

Going to be another hot one here in south Florida......Not a day for us "normal" people to be on the boat....Too many crazies on the holiday weekends....
And they wonder why us natives do not like them. They stink the place up with the blaring music , garbage, and drunken thalassic navigation. Here in Sarasota the party never stops, they just stomp the heck out of the place all year. We generally boat at night anymore just to catch fish.
Quoting 723. K8eCane:


97. Weatherwatcher007 5:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2005 Hide this comment.
An eyewall replacement cycle as a cat 3. This storm will be a monster. I think Katrina has another terrible surprise but I don't know whether it will be the track or the intensity. There is something else to this storm than everyone sees. I don't know. . .
Action


OMG...these posts are something else. Thanks SJ


It'd be fun to be able to go back and see an "unedited" version of the blog. I'm sure some of the removed posts would be very entertaining to read.
Not the best weekend on the Texas coast. I can bet some vacations are ruined.
It would be nice if some of this rain would move further inland.
99L...

A little surprised that there is no mention of the area of storms around 30-35 west. Pretty impressive on avn satellite. I guess the satellite is a bit deceiving.
Quoting 726. Sfloridacat5:

Not the best weekend on the Texas coast. I can bet some vacations are ruined.
It would be nice if some of this rain would move further inland.



Kinda stinks for the holiday weekend beach activities but Texas can use the rain.
i see two spins here invest 99L AND a spin back of invest 99L to
Quoting 714. hurricanes2018:

I am watching 33 west this morning




wow 33 west!
Quoting 731. hurricanes2018:

i see two spins here invest 99L AND a spin back of invest 99L to


Maybe we can get the NHC to spend all day throwing Captain's Waffers and M&M's at each other while they debate whether it should be 97L, 90L...Or if they should just move the location of 99L...
Quoting hurricanes2018:
i see two spins here invest 99L AND a spin back of invest 99L to


This wave has had two noticeable circulation with it. One deep in the Southern Caribbean and the other to the north up by the Islands. The northern Circulation was south of Hispaniola yesterday.
The models seem to think the southern Low will become dominant and take over. That does appear to be what is happening.
We'll have to see if the circulation to the north gets pulled into the system or just weakens.
There's also the possibility is does what Stormjunkie suggests and becomes an independent Low of its own.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Fear-mongering is one of the ways they advance their agenda.


Define "they".

That thing zero chance?
Fissure 900m long in iceland. Google John seach for more info then click his breaking news
Quoting 728. jrweatherman:

A little surprised that there is no mention of the area of storms around 30-35 west. Pretty impressive on avn satellite. I guess the satellite is a bit deceiving.
Looks good to me too.I think this will be invest soon.
Quoting 737. Gearsts:

That thing zero chance?

Looks very interesting at this moment.
Quoting 736. Fl30258713:



Define "they".




People who are paid by the government, foundations, or universities (for examples), and who are not subject to the competition of the private sector, perhaps?
Quoting 698. KoritheMan:

GFS ensemble member #9 as of the 0z GFS run. I want this. I want this so badly. I'm pretty much in dead center of that image.

PLEASE.




GEFS have 3 sub-986mb hurricanes in the Gulf. Fun to look at, unlikely.


Euro ensemble waves 'see' next weeks BoC disturbance, but rather weak, and may see a sub-tropical development near the Azores, one or two members may see something in the BoC in 13 days, but it isn't impressive looking. The control run (the Euro ensemble run with the same initial conditions as the op Euro but half resolution) also sees a weak low in the BoC in 13 days. On the sub-tropical Azores system, ensembles like it more than the op Euro days 4-6.

Nothing obvious near the Azores for sub-tropical development as soon as 4 days.



But not a lot, based on the more reliable Euro ensembles to get too excited about, and even the 13 day system, that is fantasy range. And it is a weak low anyway.

Quoting 633. nwobilderburg:



lol

200 mph Christobal? Ummm....no....just...no.





to far out!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
That wave in the central Atlantic looks like an invest now.
Quoting 745. hurricanes2018:






to far out!!
Models fishing again?






34 west big t.storms and rain wow
i see a spin at 34 west with them rain with that tropical wave is moving wnw right now.
The Atlantic has shut down going into the peak. It's pretty bad when all we can get with an MJO pulse in mid-late August is one storm. 99L bears watching, after last year we should know that anything that gets in the BOC has a chance to spin up. But it won't be a big storm, and it looks like we don't have any threats coming off Africa in the next week at least, maybe longer. This is a quiet season, just as most of us thought it would be. Three hurricanes out of three storms has been interesting, but that doesn't mean it's been active. Our ACE is about 70% of normal right now and should slide quite a bit lower in the next week or two.

Quoting 730. StormJunkie:



My prediction for the day is that WKC will predict the small surface reflection off the W end of Jamaica to develop "rather quickly" and then move WNW with "real potential" as it travels over "rocket fuel".

Completely devoid of any convection at the center, but certainly looks like it had decent spin to it.


My prediction is similar to yours in the respect that the surface reflection rapidly intensifies to a cat-5, then stalls over the Caymans for 5 days while maintaining cat-5 status due to mile deep rocket fuel. The islands vaporized by intense hurricane power.
Mostly Void of any 850 mb vorticiy except over the CV islands.

753. SLU
Quoting 745. hurricanes2018:






to far out!!


After the latest bust I no longer trust the GFS. I'm sticking to the Euro/UKMET combo for the time being. The GFS has to accurately predict the development of another storm to restore my faith in it.
big ? about 33west!
The GFS ensembles and to some extent the operational as well are really lighting up in the NW Caribbean and Gulf in 10-15 days. Looks to be directly related to the GFS dragging the MJO back in here around then.





The GFS timing is likely completely off, it may not be until late September or October that the MJO does return again. It will come back at some point in the next two months though, and when it does that will likely be our last and best chance at the Caribbean/Gulf storm many people are worried about this year.

What's THIS I see? Looks kinda like...
Wow.. what a quiet end of August/Start of September...
Have a nice Labor Day Weekend everyone!
Quoting hydrus:
My prediction is similar to yours in the respect that the surface reflection rapidly intensifies to a cat-5, then stalls over the Caymans for 5 days while maintaining cat-5 status due to mile deep rocket fuel. The islands vaporized by intense hurricane power.
Oh, you guys are just jealous because he's in a location where the only invest in the world - yes, the entire world - is going right over his house. Mom will be here any minute to tell you, once again, that every single blogger here is deserving of exactly the same respect and admiration, regardless of whether they deserve it.
Quoting Huracan94:

What's THIS I see? Looks kinda like...
a blob. Yet another blob.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 14N54W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

I can't wait to see what this turns into...
Saharan dust over south Florida today. Great for the car washing business. Bad for the cyclones.



(This picture was not taken in South Florida)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hmm I see 2 spins at the moment
One just SW of SW Jamaica and another near Honduras at the moment the one near Jamaica seems to be the strongest at the moment and has a nice curved band of convection on its S side weaker band on the N side
It will be interesting to see what happens for the rest of today




370. Stormjunkie
You have been flagged
Stop trying to predict what other people are predicting before they actually do so and end up getting it wrong
1 it make you look like a darn fool
2 your putting words into people mouths obviously they did not even say a thing
3 it's just plain wrong
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Atlantic has shut down going into the peak. It's pretty bad when all we can get with an MJO pulse in mid-late August is one storm. 99L bears watching, after last year we should know that anything that gets in the BOC has a chance to spin up. But it won't be a big storm, and it looks like we don't have any threats coming off Africa in the next week at least, maybe longer. This is a quiet season, just as most of us thought it would be. Three hurricanes out of three storms has been interesting, but that doesn't mean it's been active. Our ACE is about 70% of normal right now and should slide quite a bit lower in the next week or two.

I'd point out that all three hurricanes this year have been a little different than average in terms of data. Each of them ended up in locations where we had extensive surface, radar, and hurricane hunter data available. Arthur and, toward the end of its life, Cristobal, would have been classified based on satellite and Dvorak. It's doubtful Bertha ever would have been classified as any more that a TS. Bertha and Cristobal were good storms in terms of providing rainfall to the Islands with a minimum of destruction. We lucked out with Arthur being a landfalling storm, also with a minimum destruction for a cat 2. Compared to "normal" storms, the quality of the last two have certainly not been up to par.
Quoting 741. LesBonsTemps:



People who are paid by the government, foundations, or universities (for examples), and who are not subject to the competition of the private sector, perhaps?
As compared unfavorably to people who are paid by the oil companies, coal companies, and car companies to say the others are fakes?
Good amount of convection, but not much spinning out there.