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The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly
1503. Relix
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(
Quoting StormW:
I have my C.S. in meteorology.


excuse my ignorance, c.s.?
Quoting Relix:


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(


you are correct, I say it might be the G storm IF we dont get development in the GOM in a few days
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly


I hope that don't happen again! Glad it's so far away.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you are correct, I say it might be the G storm IF we dont get development in the GOM in a few days


00z GFS wasn't too optimistic on development there thru 168 hours. Shows 3 CV systems including 96L in that time however.
Quoting StormW:


Twofold...Common Sense, and Continuing Study.


oh ok, well keep up the good work :)
1512. JLPR
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly


Well, that certainly caught my attention right there, I'd say.
1515. JLPR
96L looks larger =P
Quoting serialteg:


im 27 and starting a 2nd b.a. in computer engineering w/an associates in meteorology for now... some people think that college is just to get a degree and go on with life, i think you can learn and study while you construct your material life also... to me learning at that level is not limited to the 18-21year old standard... obviously I have to think that to keep my esteem up high :D

especially if i plan to pursue postgraduate afterwards, which is my inclination

I hadn't planned on more college at all. My primary focus for the last 22 years has been raising my children. Once I realized my youngest was finally going to be in school, I decided to follow my dream of digging in the dirt in remote places :o)
Quoting JLPR:
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P


well, it would seem that there would have to be at least one to fall through the cracks...
1520. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P

For all we know and the GFS ensembles it could build back with 96L and push it West, WSW =P
Quoting StormW:


Twofold...Common Sense, and Continuing Study.


Lol. I like that. A common sense degree. Boy do I know some people I wish would get one of those! I'd even pay for it. Lol.
The CONUS is protected by a system of shields this season. All the stars ave lined up against the hurricanes this year. Please don't anyone build up 95 & 96L as being threats to us. They ae STILLBORN. We may have 1 more major hurricane this year, but with the devistating combo of shear and troughs it should not be a worry. But keep your guard up anyway, an early winter is on the way.
1523. JLPR
Quoting Relix:

For all we know and the GFS ensembles it could build back with 96L and push it West, WSW =P


lol well then
two system would leave the island in bad shape so I would probably take a plane and visit my family at NYC XD
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. I like that. A common sense degree. Boy do I know some people I wish would get one of those! I'd even pay for it. Lol.


I would love to have one of those, my dad always tells me to have common sense, smart man lol
1525. JLPR
Quoting TexasHurricane:


well, it would seem that there would have to be at least one to fall through the cracks...


yep one always does :|
Quoting Relix:


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(


To make things more bizard Sept 21 same date that George make landfall here in PR and a G storm.
Quoting tornadodude:


I would love to have one of those, my dad always tells me to have common sense, smart man lol


Lol. Yes he is. And I'm sure you'll do him proud. You seem like a pretty sensible young man to me. And good luck with the rest of your studies. :)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly
somehow the name GRACE and Hurricane should definietly not be one inthe same...isn't it that Grace that saves us....c'mon that can't actually happen..just wouldn't be right...
This has been a great hurricane season so far and I hope it stays this way... NO threats if something forms will go NW I just hope we keep that pattern. It feels nice and cool over the Gulf COast by the way...
homelesswanderer

Hi local....
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Yes he is. And I'm sure you'll do him proud. You seem like a pretty sensible young man to me. And good luck with the rest of your studies. :)


why thank you, I try. figure I wont obtain my goals if I do something dumb and get expelled or whatnot. lol just gotta keep a level head
i'm back
Quoting btwntx08:
i'm back


howdy
Quoting TexasHurricane:
homelesswanderer

Hi local....


Hi Tex. :)
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
This has been a great hurricane season so far and I hope it stays this way... NO threats if something forms will go NW I just hope we keep that pattern. It feels nice and cool over the Gulf COast by the way...


Yes, that would be great...I keep thinking of that saying. If something seems to good to be true, it probably is...we shall see....still have a little while left of the season.
Quoting tornadodude:


why thank you, I try. figure I wont obtain my goals if I do something dumb and get expelled or whatnot. lol just gotta keep a level head


That's that common sense your Dad spoke of. :)
Quoting tornadodude:


howdy

hello tornadodude what i miss for an hr
Went thru all of the storms in Biloxi area since I was a kid remembering as far back as Camille and then moved away to Chicago for 8 years only to return for a surprise visit to see my dad for his birhtday with my new 6 week old son only to go thru Georges on Sept 28th...that was aweful...it didn't want to ruin my record and miss any storms down here now would it..lol..
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's that common sense your Dad spoke of. :)


haha yup, common sense tells me to be a Cowboys fan :P
1539. iceman55 5:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2009
w/b

thanks what happen while i was gone for the hr
Quoting btwntx08:

hello tornadodude what i miss for an hr


well, did you catch Storm's new update? if not, you should read it
Quoting iceman55:


00z NAM images sorry if to big


Is that low in the GOM moving east or west?
iceman, what is that picture of your avatar from or rather where? ...
Lol @ Cowboys fan. We'll see Sunday against Tampa Bay. Uh oh. Tampa's not around is he? Hee hee.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Lol @ Cowboys fan. We'll see Sunday against Tampa Bay. Uh oh. Tampa's not around is he? Hee hee.


haha should be a good one, last time they played, Romo had 5 td passes
Is 96L in the EPAC supposed to bring moisture to CA and help w/ the fires?
Quoting tornadodude:


well, did you catch Storm's new update? if not, you should read it

nevermind he'll do it in about 20 minutes or less
Quoting StormW:


I'll have a new update posted on my blog in about 20 min.


oh ok, well I read the old one, oops :P
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane low stall


ok, so I guess it will sit their for a bit and decide where to go...
Quoting btwntx08:

where is it he didn't update his blog so it has to be a page or two back right??


oops, my bad, he is working on it right now, sorry guys :P
iceman....the picture we see there to the left of your post every time you post...what is it a picture of and where from?
Quoting iceman55:
i stay in slidell la .pic from 2005
ok thanks...i thought it was...looked familiar..
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane low stall

oh no that could be bad if it were to develop
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, so I guess it will sit their for a bit and decide where to go...


I think that is a different one than they were showing later in next week. But I could be wrong.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think that is a different one than they were showing later in next week. But I could be wrong.


hmmmmmm....
Quoting StormW:


I'll have a new update posted on my blog in about 20 min.


WOW, you really didn't have to, we all know on here that you typically like to hit the hay early. But nevertheless, I really appreciate you going out of our way at 1am in the morning yp type up and post this update for us, Storm. You're the best, Storm. God bless ya.
I really cannot find anyone else who loves this field as much as you do, Storm.
hmmmm
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


looks like the western GOM... among others.
1570. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


im impressed the Catl wave has any chance for development
shear is making it look like a meteor xD
BT, I can't tell if the GFS pulls an Humberto on ya or if that develops on land. Looks scary though. Link
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


Sigh.
well, time to go to sleep, so goodnight all! if I dont see you on tomorrow, have a great labor day guys :)
hello everybody its i while that i dont post here since we got hit by ike last year ( in in houston lol) i see that something might develop in the tropics?
anybody got a wind shear map for the Gulf of Mexico you can post a link for please? I dont know where to find it. thanks
Quoting tornadodude:
well, time to go to sleep, so goodnight all! if I dont see you on tomorrow, have a great labor day guys :)


Night. :)
Quoting iceman55:
Link

here ukm hmmmm


They're still showing that weird stretched out thing by TX then into LA. Wondering if CMC Euro still are?
1581. JLPR
96L keeps looking nice
thanks iceman
Tropical Cyclone likely in 12-16 hours.

1585. JLPR
96L has something close to a happy face but it missing an eye lol
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
hello everybody its i while that i dont post here since we got hit by ike last year ( in in houston lol) i see that something might develop in the tropics?


Hi. Welcome back after Ike. Hope all is well. The GFS model in particular is showing a lot of storms forming. Looks like its heating back up. So far nothing into Ike country yet. Just something seeming to ride our coast into la?
That little spinner of the South Carolina coast is getting interesting.

1589. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Cyclone likely in 12-16 hours.



I agree it looks very healthy
im thinking TD at 11am tomorrow
Quoting homelesswanderer:


They're still showing that weird stretched out thing by TX then into LA. Wondering if CMC Euro still are?


definitely interesting...
Quoting JLPR:


I agree it looks very healthy
im thinking TD at 11am tomorrow


We should be able to make a guess based on the TWO.
Ugh. Be back in a bit. The dishwasher awaits. :)
Quoting iceman55:
20min n.h.c update i guess red we find out

May see TS watches for the CV islands.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi. Welcome back after Ike. Hope all is well. The GFS model in particular is showing a lot of storms forming. Looks like its heating back up. So far nothing into Ike country yet. Just something seeming to ride our coast into la?


thanks.. yeha we are ok here... i noticed the 2 lows off africa and someone mentioning one in the gulf? i might be wrong lol
1599. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

May see TS watches for the CV islands.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



yep looks like it
The people in the CV islands should keep a close eye on this as it is very close to them and if it hits them it is no longer a fish storm xD
Quoting JLPR:


yep looks like it
The people in the CV islands should keep a close eye on this as it is very close to them and if it hits them it is no longer a fish storm xD

Correct
If we see TS warnings then its not a fish.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
BT, I can't tell if the GFS pulls an Humberto on ya or if that develops on land. Looks scary though. Link

my computer is acting weird so i can't tell umm iceman look at gfs gor me what u see
sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize
A lot of people will jump on me for this but it looks like anything coming off of Africa the rest of this year will end up pushing out to sea. The main blocking ridge has broken down so the steering current is not setup for anything t make it all the way to the states.

I would still watch for spin offs from fronts that are draped over the Gulf.
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize


Cape Verde
96L will be a td at 5 am or more likely 11 am today
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cape Verde
thanks it just popped in my head when i seen the map with the red my bad and thanks for the response anyway =]
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize


actually I love seeing a question I can answer--you can learn alot just lurking
1613. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Correct
If we see TS warnings then its not a fish.


then all the dream and hope of the people here including me that were saying it was a fish shall then be destroyed lol xD

please ignore that im doing a social science homework and my brain is in pain =P
Quoting iceman55:
cmc show low in gom right by nola and gfs show no low
well isnt the CMC the model that is always high on some kind of drugs showing storms like everywhere??? at least thats what i remember from lat year
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


actually I love seeing a question I can answer--you can learn alot just lurking


Cape Verde Islands.
the fronts have been dropping into the gulf way early this year. It doesnt surprise me to see the models trying to spin something up there. remember the CMC is usually is a little stronger than the other models. There is always a chance for something to spin off those stationary boundaries. Weather pattern has been weird in the gulf states this year. I didnt have to water my grass once all summer. :)
Quoting iceman55:
cmc show low in gom right by nola and gfs show no low

ummm no low on gfs cause homelesswanderer said a system will pull an humberto on me or something
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
well isnt the CMC the model that is always high on some kind of drugs showing storms like everywhere??? at least thats what i remember from lat year


It went through a major upgrade this year.

Or in this case...rehab.
Quoting iceman55:
matt03blueoptima lolol yeah


hehehe ok just checking my models lol
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 did u look at ukm ??

ok let me check hope my computer works now
anyone has a link to the ukm?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Awesome loop Tim!

Thanks for sharing.
1630. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:


that looks too interesting to not have a circle over it =|

maybe the NHC lost the yellow and orange crayons lol
Quoting iceman55:
TampaSpin ccl ??
i think thats the low out the coast of south carolina right??
Wow Tampa that radar loop shows a quickly organizing storm. Almost reminds me of what we saw with Claudette. Rain filling in on the NE side there, with what appears to be a feeder band to the SE. Circulation is clearly evident.
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
i think thats the low out the coast of south carolina right??


Yes it is!

Quoting JLPR:


that looks too interesting to not have a circle over it =|

maybe the NHC lost the yellow and orange crayons lol


Yes i agree....i have i listed as my feature items of main interest on my Tropical Update
SC low is still frontal in nature, likely baroclonic

thats why its not mentioned in the TWO, cuz its highly unlikely it would be tropical or even subtropical
1635. JLPR
96L has continued to loose its very circular shape but it looks very healthy still



and its models


remember don't trust them yet xD
Quoting iceman55:
kool

very strange hmmmmm
96L may well take a path similar to Isidore and Josephine of 1990.
Quoting btwntx08:

ummm no low on gfs cause homelesswanderer said a system will pull an humberto on me or something


Hi y'all. I'm back. Yes the GFS you can see it a little on the SLP model but more on the 850vort.
It's a close call on land or off. Link
Quoting iceman55:
im out

nite iceman
Quoting TampaSpin:


I know it may not be tropical but that looks like it's fixing to take off. Is it supposed to affect the NE Coast?
Low off my coast is interesting... but prlly not tropical or subtropical.. there's a warm front in our area also.. The winds are getting gusty out tho, and my local NWS has handled rain with a short term... They say we could have some heavy rain today... from this low.. very impressive to look @ on radar though, even if it isn't anything.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
SC low is still frontal in nature, likely baroclonic

thats why its not mentioned in the TWO, cuz its highly unlikely it would be tropical or even subtropical


I do understand what you are saying but, look at the Vorticity maps and the Convergence and Divergence maps....i looked at quckscat and nothing showing as the pics are old.......but, based on the data i would say it is at least a subTropical

look at this bouy......5mb difference since yesterday at this time....and falling fast.

Conditions at 41013 as of
(1:50 am EDT)
0550 GMT on 09/07/2009:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 14.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 17.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 80 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.7 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.2 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 23.9 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 27.2 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 22.8 °C
Wow! Wet, blowing & dropping pressure here on Pleasure Island. No matter what the weather in the am - gotta pick them maters!
1015mb isnt low at all TS
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
Low off my coast is interesting... but prlly not tropical or subtropical.. there's a warm front in our area also.. The winds are getting gusty out tho, and my local NWS has handled rain with a short term... They say we could have some heavy rain today... from this low.. very impressive to look @ on radar though, even if it isn't anything.


That's what I was wondering, if anyone up there was being warned about it whatever it may be. It looks nasty. I'm not sure about the SSTS up there. Is that why they think it won't be tropical? As opposed to the gulf lows that spin up off of fronts.
yea its not tropical that low, at least not at this point; still attached to the front too
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi y'all. I'm back. Yes the GFS you can see it a little on the SLP model but more on the 850vort.
It's a close call on land or off. Link

it appears that it forms on the coast but thats north on me in c.c so since its close to land it doesn't appear it would develop
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's what I was wondering, if anyone up there was being warned about it whatever it may be. It looks nasty. I'm not sure about the SSTS up there. Is that why they think it won't be tropical? As opposed to the gulf lows that spin up off of fronts.
oh... the waters are plenty warm off NC's coast.. It has more to do with the enviroment in the upper levels.. This system is likely gaining support from barclonic forcing... I think it is still possible to have a tropical depression; but from what I read in the NWS forecast discussion earlier, they said that it looks to move onshore sometime today.. so even if it does try to go warm core, it wont have much time to develop.
SC low has heavy se shear but otherwise is tropical.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
1015mb isnt low at all TS


I DO UNDERSTAND that.....it is a 5mb drop in 24hrs........i understand that a 1010 is more like a tropical system....but, it has dropped 5mb in 24hrs......now down to 1014.7
Quoting winter123:
SC low has heavy se shear but otherwise is tropical.
lol.. the center is situated just east of Cape Fear, (NC)....lol its' too far north to be considered a SC low now... lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
1015mb isnt low at all TS


Hey after how Tampa nailed Claudette when we all thought he was crazy I'll take his word for it.
Oh ok. Thanks CJS. Didn't know where it was headed. :)

Ok. BT looked like a close call. Noticed it looked more towards CC but then hooked back south to you. And they don't need much room. Now there are 2 sayings...Remember the Alamo. And in this case Remember Humberto. Lol.

Sorry. My quote buttons went away.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Oh ok. Thanks CJS. Didn't know where it was headed. :)

Ok. BT looked like a close call. Noticed it looked more towards CC but then hooked back south to you. And they don't need much room. Now there are 2 sayings...Remember the Alamo. And in this case Remember Humberto. Lol.

Sorry. My quote buttons went away.

thats ok btw we need to waych that potential low lets see what will happen with it
One other thing of note......IT is over the Gulf Stream also.....things can happen very fast there.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Hey after how Tampa nailed Claudette when we all thought he was crazy I'll take his word for it.


Thanks....everyone gets lucky sometimes........LOL
Quoting btwntx08:

thats ok btw we need to waych that potential low lets see what will happen with it


Yes I agree. Looking at the models and from Storms update looks like it could give us headaches From Brownsville to Fl. With that and all of the Atlantic possibilities and what's there already looks like DR.M might need a new blog name. Tropics aren't quiet. Lol.
Actually the gulf stream is further east than what the low center is.. by quite a bit actually. this puppy is centered over shelf(shallow) waters.
Quoting TampaSpin:
One other thing of note......IT is over the Gulf Stream also.....things can happen very fast there.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thanks....everyone gets lucky sometimes........LOL


You say that as if you lack sufficient ability to make accurate forecasts.

I think that most of the time, you are pretty good, Tampa. Don't degrade yourself.
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
actually the gulf stream is further east than what the low center is.. by quite a bit actually. this puppy is centered over shelf(shallow) waters.

am talking about the potential low in the gom not the low off sc
Quoting btwntx08:

am talking about the potential low in the gom not the low off sc
I apologize,I corrected the original post..lol I clicked on the wrong comment.. My bad
hmmm interesting blob off mx coast in boc
What's the different between "ensemble models" and "computer models", specifically, with regards to their forecast tracks? For example, the forecast track for the new Invest off the African coast differs greatly between the ensemble models and computer models. Any information on this would be great. Thanks.


Ick! Lol.
1668. JLPR
we lost our meteor
apparently it crashed somewhere in the Atlantic lol xD
Quoting 92Andrew:
What's the different between "ensemble models" and "computer models", specifically, with regards to their forecast tracks? For example, the forecast track for the new Invest off the African coast differs greatly between the ensemble models and computer models. Any information on this would be great. Thanks.


I wish I knew how to answer this question. But I did find this that explains the ensemble models. Hope it helps. :)

Link
...FIFTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009
200 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INCREASE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE OBSERVED A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM 0230 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHEST NON-RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. BASED ON THE
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. MOREOVER THE
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEIGHBORING STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD DECK INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
UNSTABLE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...PERHAPS AT A FASTER RATE
THAN SHOWN HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER SLOW 285/7. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W-140W LONGITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1671. JLPR
Quickscat caught what appears to be half of a very defined LLC
I wish it would have caught all of it :(





well then... later
gonna check how 96L is doing later today
dont know if I should say goodnight or good morning lol xD
Quoting 92Andrew:
What's the different between "ensemble models" and "computer models", specifically, with regards to their forecast tracks? For example, the forecast track for the new Invest off the African coast differs greatly between the ensemble models and computer models. Any information on this would be great. Thanks.


The ensemble models are the computer models run with a different set of initial conditions at a lower horizontal resolution. That graph shows each ensemble member from the GFS model. Each ensemble member has a different set of initial conditions, designed to represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions.

This link gives a good background ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AT NCEP but is somewhat old. The resolution and length of the run has changed since then.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF INTO LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS TEXAS/NORTHEAST MEXICO...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS POSSIBLE...SO ADDED THE CYCLONE TO THE PROGS FROM THE PREFERRED BLEND.


HPC Preliminary Graphics
1674. IKE
Long-term discussion from NO,LA.....

"LONG TERM...

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION EACH DAY. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MARKEDLY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT WILL
TAKE HOLD OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A 70-80 KNOT JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
COAST AND STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH STRONG OMEGA
VALUES IN PLACE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HAVE WENT
WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY."
1676. IKE
Long-term from Birmingham,AL....

"WITH SOME AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW COMES BARRELING OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS DOES
VERIFY...IT COULD MEAN SOME WICKED WEATHER FOR FOLKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WHAT LOOKS
TO BE A VERY FALL-LIKE WARM FRONT THAT MODELS HAVE PROGRESSING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIKE WHAT HAPPENS MANY TIMES IN THE
FALL...WE COULD GET ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
ELIMINATE ANY TALK OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ORGANIZED WEATHER ACTIVITY AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD BE APLENTY...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL."
I see the low siiting in th mid GOM at the end if the NAM run. If (and thats a big if) it developes, where does it go?
1678. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I see the low siiting in th mid GOM at the end if the NAM run. If (and thats a big if) it developes, where does it go?


Probably north...latest GFS doesn't show it. NOGAPS continues to show a vorticity heading into the big-bend of Florida.
Quoting IKE:


Probably north...latest GFS doesn't show it. NOGAPS continues to show a vorticity heading into the big-bend of Florida.


It is the hybrid low that is coming from SE Texas we should look outflow. The low is caused by increased convection in SE Texas due to an upper trough. As the low ejects off the Texan coast, the favorable outflow in the GOM might help it develop further.
IKE, if something form in the GOM within 84hrs, it would probably be a minute mesoscale feature like Claudette. The models are showing an extending surface trough, but are inconsistent on where the main low will actually develop. Depending on where it forms, we might a tropical cyclone....or not.
First possible extratropical nasty of the year (They always seem to start earlier in El Nino seasons, too.)? Not seen a low this strong in a while.





Tightens up to 972 as it crosses north of Scotland from the latest synoptic charts, up to 80mph winds for them according to the UKMO.

Least it's shooting for the Iceland-Scotland Gap (What an original name) like all good and honest gales do.
1682. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
IKE, if something form in the GOM within 84hrs, it would probably be a minute mesoscale feature like Claudette. The models are showing an extending surface trough, but are inconsistent on where the main low will actually develop. Depending on where it forms, we might a tropical cyclone....or not.


I see the 6Z GFS takes a low into Texas in about a week, then heads it NE as the trough then heads toward the gulf-coast.
1683. IKE
Oh....happy Labor Day everyone.

Like you said previously futuremet, this may be the last shot for the northern gulf-coast.
Quoting IKE:


I see the 6Z GFS takes a low into Texas in about a week, then heads it NE as the trough then heads toward the gulf-coast.


The 06z GFS has it making landfall earlier in this run. That is because it forecast the longwave trough to amplify less, thus, causing this sysem to move NE. If it amplifies farther south, the developing low will move ENE. It all depends on how much the trough will amplify.
Quoting IKE:
Oh....happy Labor Day everyone.

Like you said previously futuremet, this may be the last shot for the northern gulf-coast.


Yup, the GOM probably has 2 more chances to get something going: the developing surface trough, and that will form in the western GOM.
1686. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


The 06z GFS has it making landfall earlier in this run. That is because it forecast the longwave trough to amplify less, thus, causing this sysem to move NE. If it amplifies farther south, the developing low will move ENE. It all depends on how much the trough will amplify.


Models don't seem to have a good handle on it yet...too far in advance. 00Z NOGAPS shows....a low making landfall in the Florida panhandle. GFS is much further west.

Models should come into better agreement as it approaches.

Is there a high chance of developement in GOM,if the wind sheer lets up in time?
Quoting IKE:


Models don't seem to have a good handle on it yet...too far in advance. 00Z NOGAPS shows....a low making landfall in the Florida panhandle. GFS is much further west.

Models should come into better agreement as it approaches.



The low the NOGAPS is showing is the surface in the East GOM that might develop. Look near eastern Texas, and you will signs of cyclogenesis.

A tiny patch of vorticiy is already showing up just north Cuba......wait a minute....this is the same thing that happened with Claudette.

Quoting stormsurge39:
Is there a high chance of developement in GOM,if the wind sheer lets up in time?


Yes...a moderate chance.
The GFS appears to be suffering with convective feedback again regarding this potential feature.
For now Corpus has it handled well:


Photobucket


Quoting futuremet:


Yes...a moderate chance.
When will the window of oppurtunity be?
Quoting futuremet:


The 06z GFS has it making landfall earlier in this run. That is because it forecast the longwave trough to amplify less, thus, causing this sysem to move NE. If it amplifies farther south, the developing low will move ENE. It all depends on how much the trough will amplify.


Morning everyone. The GFS and ECMWF have this in the same area at 168 hrs. The CMC Nola at 144. Storm said in his update last night anywhere from TX/LA east. So who knows?
1693. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


The low the NOGAPS is showing is the surface in the East GOM that might develop. Look near eastern Texas, and you will signs of cyclogenesis.

A tiny patch of vorticiy is already showing up just north Cuba......this the same thing that happened with Claudette.



I hadn't looked at the vorticity map. Thanks...I see it now.
Quoting futuremet:


The low the NOGAPS is showing is the surface in the East GOM that might develop. Look near eastern Texas, and you will signs of cyclogenesis.

A tiny patch of vorticiy is already showing up just north Cuba......wait a minute....this is the same thing that happened with Claudette.



I thought hey were 2 different things as well. The NAM was showing something farther east as well.
Quoting stormsurge39:
When will the window of oppurtunity be?


Wednesday of this week and the middle part of next week.

Two seperate features:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


I thought hey were 2 different things as well. The NAM was showing something farther east as well.


The NAM shows extending surface trough, with two separate lows trying to form. The models do not have good handle on where along the surface trough will dominant low form. The hybrid low will form next week by Texas.
Quoting futuremet:


Wednesday of this week and the middle part of next week.

Thanks, so GOM has potential for 2 tropical systems within a week?
Quoting IKE:


I hadn't looked at the vorticity map. Thanks...I see it now.


Claudette did the same thing...it showed up exactly like this, and developed well defined mid level circulation within 12hrs.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, so GOM has potential for 2 tropical systems within a week?


Yes...
Quoting futuremet:


Yes...
Are we looking at possible tropical storms or hurricanes?
1702. IKE
Shear is 20 to 30+ knots in the northern GOM. Low shear of 10 knots is where that vorticity is at.....

1703. tramp96
Quoting IKE:
Oh....happy Labor Day everyone.

Like you said previously futuremet, this may be the last shot for the northern gulf-coast.


Kinda hard to be happy with so many out of work
9.7 %. Great administration.
Low number 1: extending surface trough.



Low number 2: low pressure system off Texas coast

Quoting stormsurge39:
Are we looking at possible tropical storms or hurricanes?


I don't know

likely a storm
Quoting futuremet:


The NAM shows extending surface trough, with two separate lows trying to form. The models do not have good handle on where along the surface trough will dominant low form. The hybrid low will form next week by Texas.


Thanks Future.
1707. IKE
From Key West morning discussion....

"SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE KEYS TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD.
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.
MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE KEYS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BY THE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION.

FOR TODAY...CONTRADICTORY INDICATORS COME INTO PLAY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO BRING MAINLAND ACTIVITY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PRESENT ON THE SUNDAY
EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING WILL NEED TO MOVE AWAY OR BE MODIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. BEST
GUESS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BULK OF IT MAY NOT REACH THE KEYS UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND WILL NUDGE
POPS FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 40 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NEW
ECMWF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM CUBA AND DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE STRAITS.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
ALSO BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. LIKELY POPS COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...BUT UNTIL WE
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT...
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEAVING THE KEYS
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...PERHAPS ORIGINATING FROM
NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF CUBA...AND WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT...WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA STARTING
FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING QUITE STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO FLORIDA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR CLIMO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION VIA SUBSIDENCE."
FWIW From Houston...

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE NOT A MAJOR
FRONT...AT LEAST A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO REACH SE TX BY
SUNDAY AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BLANKETED 30 POPS AREA WIDE
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS THIS PERIOD.

Going east to Lake Charles...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FROM
THE NORTH WITH A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN RETURN LATE TUESDAY WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE BUILDING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE AND SUPPORT AFTN STORM
DEVELOPMENT
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.


Trying to sneak up on us I see
Quoting futuremet:
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.


Trying to sneak up on us I see


Lol. I was fixing to say Erika's going to make landfall after all.
1711. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.


Trying to sneak up on us I see


LOL....Erika....
1712. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
I guess I should explain my last post. Houston considers itself SE TX. But the SE TX in the Lake Charles discussion is just about everything between Houston and the Louisiana border. I didn't know til recently Houston was SE TX. Lol.
I'm not from here what can I say? :)
1714. IKE
So is the low off NC the storm the EURO spins up on that model Future just posted?
1716. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
So is the low off NC the storm the EURO spins up on that model Future just posted?


That's September 14th. I would say no.
Quoting IKE:


That's September 14th. I would say no.


Ok. Thanks. Just not usually like them to spin something up like the CMC is famous for. And everyone last night didn't seem to think the low there now would have time to make it.
Morning Storm. :)
1721. WxLogic
Good morning...
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...


Good morning. :)
1723. WxLogic
I see you guys are discussing the possible low development in the GOM the NAM has been hinting at for quite sometime.
i saw erica lower parts slam into hispanola a few days ago. there was banding north of the island. what was left behind in leftover opinion was a mid level swirl which played havoc near prico for a day or so
Good morning and Happy Labor day, everyone!
Oh for crying out loud! If we even get brushed by something tropical on the 13th that would be 3 years in a row. Best I can tell if anything came this way it would be the 14th but still what are the odds? Lol. Geesh.
1727. WxLogic
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good morning. :)


:) Morning...
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning and Happy Labor day, everyone!


Good morning. :)
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Oh for crying out loud! If we even get brushed by something tropical on the 13th that would be 3 years in a row. Best I can tell if anything came this way it would be the 14th but still what are the odds? Lol. Geesh.


Peak of the season, I'd imagine the odds are pretty high...
1730. IKE
Looks like 96L will be Fred.

If something pops in the GOM it would be Grace. I would put the odds of something forming and named in the GOM at 25-30%, right now.
96L still looking good and I see it has been upgraded to code red.
Good Morning and Happy Labour to you guys

Yea we spell Labour the British way here..

Tropical Update
Guess we're looking for 'It might be turning into a TD'... usually the signal it's getting upgraded.

Possibly at 2.

And yeah, happy "Labor" Day to all you Americans... :)
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning and Happy Labour to you guys

Yea we spell Labour the British way here..

Tropical Update


Excellent to see... superfluous vowels should never die!
1735. 10Speed
Seeing that all the big wheels are off celebrating Labor Day today and have left a peon in charge (isn't it suppose to be the other way around?)... I officially declare Sept. 7, 2009 as the last day of the 2009 hurricane season.
Cyclogenesis in the GOM seems unlikely at this moment.

I hope 96l/Fred is a fish. The ECMWF spins it up quickly then just before it hits 40w it looks to build the ridge back in over it and turn it wsw. Hopefully the other storm they show makes enough of a weakness in time.
Tough one, Can you explain why there may be a decrease in shear in the GOM this weak, considering there is currently a shortwave trof over LA? TIA.
The title of the blog makes no since now that we have these to storms.
But I'm not discounting anything in the GOM as with Claudette and Humberto, just gotta watch in the meantime.
1741. 10Speed
Quoting IKE:
Looks like 96L will be Fred.

If something pops in the GOM it would be Grace. I would put the odds of something forming and named in the GOM at 25-30%, right now.


My estimate is 5% at the most.
Quoting 10Speed:


My estimate is 5% at the most.


what did you expect...its the GOM, anything in the GOM automatically gets a higher chance than anywhere in the Atlantic, even if you dont like tropical systems.

Gulfcasters
1745. IKE
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Tough one, Can you explain why there may be a decrease in shear in the GOM this weak, considering there is currently a shortwave trof over LA? TIA.


According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."
Morning StormW and all here.
Nice bubble of convection in the GOM.
Looks like the CV are getting some showers

1749. IKE
According to the 6Z GFS the shear in the GOM should lift out by the end of the week...Link
Quoting IKE:


According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."


Makes complete sense, thanks Ike. To confirm what you've stated, I saw on The Local Forecast on TWC a forecast of ene winds overnight but ese winds during the day, very typical change-of-season-like conditions but atypical for this early part of September in LA. The "northerly" winds will last only one night with this trough.
Link
Focused on 96L.
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)
Most of the models are agreeing that 96L is going to move West/WNW and then turn the the North/NW.
bare naked swirls? been seeing alot of this this yr 51w17n
1755. WAHA
I have made a new post on my website, and I have a question on that site. Please answer it.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


"FRED" Flintstone?
Isn't it nice to have a nice quiet Labor Day weekend with the tropics so quiet....seems lately so many Labor Days have been filled with major storms making landfall....and our two invests are heading out to sea.....great news.....everyone have a great day off!!
Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


Time's UP!

Henry Corden was the voice for both "Fred" Flinstone and Charley the Tuna!

A NATURAL TWO-FER!
AL 96 2009090712 BEST 0 120N 219W 25 1007 DB
1760. Dakster
CycloneOz - Bystander got it half right...
Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


Fred Flinston
Quoting Dakster:
CycloneOz - Bystander got it half right...


Yep...and in my original post, I knew someone would get part of it! :)

The tuna fish reference was the hard one to get, but doable! :)
Quoting IKE:
From Key West morning discussion....

"SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE KEYS TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD.
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.
MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE KEYS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BY THE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION.

FOR TODAY...CONTRADICTORY INDICATORS COME INTO PLAY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO BRING MAINLAND ACTIVITY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PRESENT ON THE SUNDAY
EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING WILL NEED TO MOVE AWAY OR BE MODIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. BEST
GUESS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BULK OF IT MAY NOT REACH THE KEYS UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND WILL NUDGE
POPS FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 40 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NEW
ECMWF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM CUBA AND DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE STRAITS.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
ALSO BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. LIKELY POPS COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...BUT UNTIL WE
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT...
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEAVING THE KEYS
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...PERHAPS ORIGINATING FROM
NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF CUBA...AND WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT...WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA STARTING
FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING QUITE STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO FLORIDA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR CLIMO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION VIA SUBSIDENCE."

Good morning!! EVERYBODY keep an EYE on the REMNANTS of ERIKA!!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yep...and in my original post, I knew someone would get part of it! :)

The tuna fish reference was the hard one to get, but doable! :)


So, Fred is a Fish storm?
Yabba Dabba Doo!!
1767. Dakster
Where's IKE? He needs to watch the Erika remnants as she enters the GOM...

Any of the models develope this?
Quoting NWWNCAVL:


So, Fred is a Fish storm?



hahahaha...yeah...
Quoting CycloneOz:



hahahaha...yeah...

Watch out all you fishes out there!
1771. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Where's IKE? He needs to watch the Erika remnants as she enters the GOM...

Any of the models develope this?


I'm around. I'm watching.
1772. Dakster
Hey OZ - You need to charter a boat and go into one of the storms... THAT would be incredible. (Just make sure you pick the right boat to do it in)
1773. Dakster
IKE,

What are your thoughts?
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.

Quoting Dakster:
Hey OZ - You need to charter a boat and go into one of the storms... THAT would be incredible. (Just make sure you pick the right boat to do it in)


Maybe Storm could hook YOu up with some of his buddies that have to go after people that do really smart stuff like that...LOL
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TXAnd he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



Isn't this what the doctor normally says before any bad news
Quoting Ameister12:
Nice bubble of convection in the GOM.

Looks like the trough of low pressure has lifted out of the GOM! What do you think about the convection flare-up in the BOC? Also the remnants of Erika is supposed to float into the GOM on Tuesday.
Morning gang. Hope everyone is enjoying an extra day off.

Is the swirl over Cuba the remnants of Erika? I see sheer in the GOM is still about 30....any ideas on what will happen?
Quoting laflastormtracker:


Isn't this what the doctor normally says before any bad news


Lol. Exactly! Just hoping his long track record doesn't hold up. It started the night before TS Allison came ashore. Where he just shrugged it off and said it wouldn't amount to much. Sigh.
1774 - Local Mets have been mentioning it here, but they are not going to go with anything til they see something physically on satellite, considering this year's hostile conditions. Should be near chaos if something would develop last minute.
Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.

Quoting iceman55:
im hearA Yellow Box in gom soon


Iceman,what are the coordinates of the area we are watching?
I am considering later this week, altho there is a very small chance for today you are correct.
Quoting weatherblog:
Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.



Well seeing as that has happened almost on a regular basis in the past couple years I say I disagree.
What part of the GOM, near the Boc?
Quoting laflastormtracker:
1774 - Local Mets have been mentioning it here, but they are not going to go with anything til they see something physically on satellite, considering this year's hostile conditions. Should be near chaos if something would develop last minute.


I was surprised they did here already. But it's nice to know they have a clue. Well some of them. :)
1794. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE,

What are your thoughts?


25-30% chance of a system developing this week in the GOM. It would take a few days for it to happen.
Happy Labor Day everyone.
Loving the three day weekend!
Flareup in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

Loop
8 AM Discussion:
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROVIDING A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OTHER THAN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR KEY WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY THROUGH 25N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 93W.

Welcome to life near the GOM! El Nino year and the moment sheer lets up, everybody WATCH!! GOM SST very high, won't take much to fire off something!!
Quoting iceman55:
im out work time
keep warm
1799. Nimitz
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...something the size of an aircraft carrier.


Oh, hell no, something like a shrimp boat, or to give him a chance to survive it, a frigate. Better yet, put him in a beachfront hotel in a place like Gulfport and let a Camille come his way. He'll get a new aspect on prayer, and if he lives through it, a real respect for the power of these storms. I usually sit and lurk because listening is a better way to learn than asking. But when I hear a blithering idiot talk this kind of drivel, I KNOW the closest they ever got to a hurricane was seeing it on the Weather Channel.
Per Tropical Position Page 07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

Per Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTC-SWA) (See Post 1763. Ameister12) closer to 13N 23W

Buoy STATION 13001 BUOY DATA NE Extension - 11.49N 23W - South of Cape Verdes Island


WebCam 16°36′00″N 22°54′15″W Santa Maria (South side of Sal, Cape Verde) This is a still picture - click to go to updating cam


16°36′00″N 22°54′15″W Santa Maria (South side of Sal, Cape Verde) - Again click for updating cam
Quoting IKE:


25-30% chance of a system developing this week in the GOM. It would take a few days for it to happen.



shhhhhhhh don't say that
1803. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...something the size of an aircraft carrier.


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...
1804. palmpt
Quoting weatherblog:
Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.



Shear is lifting soon... chances will definitely rise Wednesday forward.
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.

Have you ever played Yahtzee? Imagine being the dice in that cup you shake around before you roll them.. thats a good start on the experience.
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...

I am sure the 25-50' seas, 75-100MPH winds made for a truely unforgettable experience, peppered with 4, 5 and 6 lettered words throughout!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.


Thankfully I've never had to ride one out at sea. But I will never, as long as I live, get the voice of the captain of that disabled ship being tossed around by Ike out of my head. Desperation might be a way to describe it. There was some female reporter on the radio with him. She kept on and on asking him questions. And he was being as polite as he could telling her he was busy. I'm glad they all made it. But it didn't sound like fun.
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30
1809. Dakster
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am sure the 25-50' seas, 75-100MPH winds made for a truely unforgettable experience, peppered with 4, 5 and 6 lettered words throughout!!


According to him, most were too busy throwing up to say anything. Although you would have thought they were used to some of it, since they were stationed in the North Atlantic, which is known for high seas all the time. I get sea sick thinking about it, so I will always been known as a land lubber for sure.
Good morning!
Nearly all of the GFS ensemble members take 96L NW, but then back WSW or SW. And, after Erika, who knows with any of the models.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS:
Quoting iceman55:
hurricanehanna big blo way down in gom


we'll wait and see then. Thanks
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30

Where can you find this info?
Sorry for not helloing.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.

Have you ever played Yahtzee? Imagine being the dice in that cup you shake around before you roll them.. thats a good start on the experience.


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Where can you find this info?
Sorry for not helloing.


Just click the invest or storm you want to find numbers for Link
1815. lavinia
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?
Quoting Autistic2:


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".


ROFL, we don't get paid to come back :)
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30


T# at 2.0-2.5? Expect an upgrade soon.
Quoting extreme236:


Just click the invest or storm you want to find numbers for Link

Thanks.
1819. Dakster
Let me see if this posts... Only two models (besides the ensembles) show a W or WSW movement. (What's up with the BAMM and the U-Turn - if this verifies at least get to send one back) From the SFWMD page:

Quoting lavinia:
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?

It depends on how big the storm is on the depth of water movement....Katrina moved water some 600 to 700 feet but some will only stir the water as much as 500 feet.....

Thats my understanding anyway....
Quoting hurricanehanna:


we'll wait and see then. Thanks


Morning Hanna. Someone posted this earlier. There are two different lows the models are talking about. One around mid week. The other in the NW GOM by the weekend. Hope this helps. :)

Two seperate features:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
1822. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, we don't get paid to come back :)


Orca - You were in the USCG? or the Canadian equivalent?
This very well could be Tropical Storm Fred before the Day ends.
Quoting lavinia:
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?


My brother in law was on a Nuclear attack sub. He told me that they went under a cat 5 and had 35 degree rolls at 500 feet. 15 degree rolls at 800
Quoting Autistic2:


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".

Well, I'm glad you survived the encounter! Maybe you can knock a lil' bit of sense into people who want to see or venture into a major hurricane!!
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


T# at 2.0-2.5? Expect an upgrade soon.


Yeah, but the SAB is still only giving a T1.0, suggesting the center fix isnt exactly certain yet. Probably nothing till about 5.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Morning Hanna. Someone posted this earlier. There are two different lows the models are talking about. One around mid week. The other in the NW GOM by the weekend. Hope this helps. :)

Two seperate features:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

Thanks Homeless - I appreciate the info. :)
Quoting AllStar17:
Good morning!
Nearly all of the GFS ensemble members take 96L NW, but then back WSW or SW. And, after Erika, who knows with any of the models.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS:
If a system comes near the island if it is very strong might survive the high shear in the east caribbean; tiny, Anna, Danny and Erika coudn't.
1829. lavinia
Thanks taco and Autistic2. That's what I was wondering. How far down you'd feel the affects. I was thinking of submarines.
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Thanks Homeless - I appreciate the info. :)


You're welcome. Glad I could help.

Quoting dcoaster:


Thats an old center position.
Quoting dcoaster:


No way that is where the center is. Models already would be way off if the center is there....which I definitely think it is not.
Quoting AllStar17:
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)

yep
Out for now, Lirk off and on today, Npw for the grill dogs burgers pato sald and family.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.


So for all those who THINK/THOUGHT the season is OVER, here's a few items to keep an eye on!! P.S. the season is NOT finished YET!!
Disregard my last post.
I would like to see that southern band try to wrap around the eastern side to signify a strengthening system.
I'll be back later. Everybody enjoy your day. :)
i wouldn't be surpised if the aoi in the boc has a code yellow at 2 pm
here is the Visible radar in the GOM and can see something building out there..... I sure don't want it too because I come on call this weekend and it will be Busy if you know what i mean....

Link
Quoting AllStar17:
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)

Yes, that is very true, watching the satellite loops of the BOC, convection is continuing and spreading to the N. CIMSS maps shows shear is very low, an anti=cyclone is near/moving over the area and potentional for divergence is also good!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, that is very true, watching the satellite loops of the BOC, convection is continuing and spreading to the N. CIMSS maps shows shear is very low, an anti=cyclone is near/moving over the area and potentional for divergence (lift) is also good!!

all true i saw everything what ur saying
1846. Dakster
Quoting btwntx08:
i wouldn't be surpised if the aoi in the boc has a code yellow at 2 pm


Me either... Just to be safe. Afterall, there has to be at least a 1% chance of it forming.
Divergence creates outflow, not lift. Surface convergence allows lift to occur.
Quoting btwntx08:

all true i saw everything what ur saying
I lived in Ft Worth, TX for 28 yrs, temporarily here in Nashville, TN helping my daughter! People seem to forget the GOM in the BOC area is 80F + almost all year, and that weather dynamics say ONE THING and what ACTUALLY HAPPENS is another!! Especially in the Jaccuzi!! Claudette is a REAL GOOD EXAMPLE!
Well just to tell you I'm more worried about what could be something coming from the SE GOM as StormW made a comment about yesterday.... with sheer moving out and the remnants of Erika coming towards FL Keys and Cuba....
It could get very busy in here and North Gulf Coast....

Taco :0)
Quoting Dakster:


Orca - You were in the USCG? or the Canadian equivalent?


Canadian Navy
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Divergence creates outflow, not lift. Surface convergence allows lift to occur.

Thanks!!
1852. Dakster
Orca - Cool..
1853. jpsb
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...


Late in WW2 three USN destroyers were lost in a typhoon. An Iowa class battleship (very big ship) took minor damage. Strong storms at sea are not fun, not even a little bit.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks!!


Did you fix it, because I looked at the post I saw that it wasn't there? I want to know if I wasn't just seeing things? It doesn't matter.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Did you fix it, because I looked at the post I saw that it wasn't there? I want to know if I wasn't just seeing things? It doesn't matter.

Yes, I did, I am still learning, and I don't want to confuse everyone who's learning either :0)!
boc nothing there too close to land watching central cuba
Quoting lavinia:
Thanks taco and Autistic2. That's what I was wondering. How far down you'd feel the affects. I was thinking of submarines.


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.
1858. Relix
I won't take the Ensembles lightly. With Erika they somehow predicted she could move West and WSW instead of WNW/NW... and alas she did.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



YIKES!
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



Childress mentioned last year that the ECMWF is the model that they most closely follow
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - Cool..

im back and im mad at the you know who
Quoting Orcasystems:


Canadian Navy


Much respect!

your football team would prolly beat Army too! Go Navy, beat Army!

I am an authority of sorts on the subject of the early United States Life Saving Service.. precursor to the USCG. I have nothing but respect for Coasties. Semper Paratus
so what the story with 96L
A quick question concerning the invest this year and the CV waves. It appears to me that the upper level outflow bands have been more radial this year than in past years. They don't have the clockwise circular outflow that is more obvious in past TS. Is this something particular with the CV waves?
Quoting lawntonlookers:
A quick question concerning the invest this year and the CV waves. It appears to me that the upper level outflow bands have been more radial this year than in past years. They don't have the clockwise circular outflow that is more obvious in past TS. Is this something particular with the CV waves?

i hope you mean counter clock wise otherwise this would be a weirder storm than erika
Quoting indianrivguy:


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.


I went back and looked at my post and I am sorry I left off some zero's that was to be 600 to 700 feet with a shallow storm moving water 500 feet...... My bad.... I will pay a little closer on what I type....

Taco :0)
I just looked at the models... almost all of them develop the system off the Carols and bring it toward NY State. The only question is the size of the system.

Models
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.

THE gfs Brings it to Montalk NY
Quoting Weather456:
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.



Weather456 I think that is mid Level and not surface just yet.... Although I could be wrong... I am known to make mistakes....

Taco :0)
Quoting Acemmett90:
THE gfs Brings it to Montalk NY


notice it stalls for a few days

Quoting Weather456:


notice it stalls for a few days


yah i know
Quoting Weather456:
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.



456, have you noticed again this year.... the CMC is picking up systems early... then dropping them.. and then they happen. Prime example, this Carols one. The CMC originally detected it a few days ago... then dropped it..and now the rest of the models have it also.

A few days ago it modelled a system starting in the NE GOM, and going into the panhandle.. two of them actually.
Quoting Weather456:


notice it stalls for a few days


oh great im leaveing today to go back to ny for the next two week and then i will only be in florida on weekends
Quoting AllStar17:


No way that is where the center is. Models already would be way off if the center is there....which I definitely think it is not.


The center position isn't correct. It's an old position from CIMSS. The thing that is current is the satellite loop. I really despise METEOSAT for satellite loops in the eastern Atlantic.
1875. Dakster
Hey Acemett - I was "wundering" where you were yesterday.

Quoting Dakster:
Hey Acemett - I was "wundering" where you were yesterday.


busy my little cuz is in town
Quoting dcoaster:


The center position isn't correct. It's an old position from CIMSS. The thing that is current is the satellite loop. I really despise METEOSAT for satellite loops in the eastern Atlantic.


OK...thanks for that clarification.
Quoting Orcasystems:


456, have you noticed again this year.... the CMC is picking up systems early... then dropping them.. and then they happen. Prime example, this Carols one. The CMC originally detected it a few days ago... then dropped it..and now the rest of the models have it also.

A few days ago it modelled a system starting in the NE GOM, and going into the panhandle.. two of them actually.


yea it does,

but I'm actually looking to the more reliable models like the GFS and ECMWF, both show a low pressure developing over the GOM. While we cannot discount anything at the peak of the hurricane season (Claudette); i would wait until a low pressure feature actually comes up before I can say development. We now know that the models are showing something, now the most we can do is watch.
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance
Quoting AllStar17:
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance


Not to mention ex-95L is still around. GFS shows the low pressure with it persisting for about the next 72 hours.
Quoting AllStar17:
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance


I would have to agree :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Same ones I picked this morning
Here's the invests so far this year:

1st round:

90L is ??

91L is TD 1

92L is bust?

93L is bust

94L is bust

95L skipped

96L skipped

97L is bust

98L is bust

99L is Ana

Second Round:

90L is Bill

91L is Claudette

92L is Danny

93L is Jimena (E. Pacific)

94L is Erika

95L is bust?

96L is possible TD 7 and Fred
and the models are showing vorticity and yet barely any close isobars.
Quoting Weather456:


yea it does,

but I'm actually looking to the more reliable models like the GFS and ECMWF, both show a low pressure developing over the GOM. While we cannot discount anything at the peak of the hurricane season (Claudette); i would wait until a low pressure feature actually comes up before I can say development. We now know that the models are showing something, now the most we can do is watch.


I just seriously hope that is is not an extremely slow mover....or else rapid intensification would be possible to likely under favorable conditions with that hot tub-like water.
Not overly impressive by 96L's sat ippearance this morning,regardless this system likely still remains a non issue for the islands and eastcoast.

adrian
No rain on us yesterday, but we got a good downpour now – as evidenced by WU’s hi-def radar…

Quoting AllStar17:


I just seriously hope that is is not an extremely slow mover....or else rapid intensification would be possible to likely under favorable conditions with that hot tub-like water.


3 day average

If it materializes, I would be very concerned with the GOM distubance.
Quoting Acemmett90:

i hope you mean counter clock wise otherwise this would be a weirder storm than erika


No I am referring to the upper level outflow bands. This upper level outflow circulates in an anticyclonic direction and is termed the anticyclonic jet once the cane is formed.
Pressure is down 5-8mb lower now than 24hrs ago at this same time in the area off the Carolinas.
new blog!!!
1894. tramp96
Quoting indianrivguy:


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.


On an episode of The Deadliest Catch they were showing how the film crews fared. One guy got so bad he was having convultions and they had to call the coast gaurd to get him in a helicopter.