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The tropics are quiet today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on July 11, 2006

A tropical wave near 13N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has minimal thunderstorm activity today, and is not expected to develop. Strong upper-level winds of 20-30 knots are creating too much wind shear.

The well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery over the southeast Gulf of Mexico is a cold-cored upper level low pressure system. Wind shear is high, and no development is expected as it moves slowly southwest.

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with a tropical wave, and is interacting with the upper level low in the Gulf and a second upper level low north of the Bahamas. No significant development of this area is expected before it moves ashore into Florida on Wednesday. Portions of Florida should get some heavy rains from this system.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The rest of the tropics are quiet. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropics through Thursday, and none of the four major global computer models are hinting at tropical storm development in the Atlantic. By Friday, wind shear is expected to decrease sharply over the Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to keep an eye on that region this weekend.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NHC says that 96L is facing a hostile upper level atmosphere which should inhibit development.

What, other than shear, which doesn't look too bad to me (forcast) else is inhibiting its development?

Also, shear looks semi-favorable off the SE FL coast in the AM for an outside chance for BB to get it together a little bit before rolling ashore.
pin-hole eye alert for hurricane BUD


wow look how small the eye is
I'm looking at the NOGAPS sheer(850mb-200mb) forecast, and thing are definitely going to heat up if this proves true. I looks like sheer will relax significantly within the whole of the main development area starting within the next 24 hours. With the uber high SST's in the gulf, something is going to explode in the next week.NOGAPS
Awsome View of now Hurricane Bud!
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
it is indeed sad for someone to want to be you :)
sorry...did not mean to feed the cat :)
Agree zeke, shear is relaxing although I don't know if it's relaxing enough for development...other than GOM, which is going to be ripe soon.
ST0RMTOP at 10:49 PM GMT on July 11, 2006.

Yeap..thats the fake..grape his IP and ban him permenantly.

See his is ST0 not STO... kill him now!!!
the zero again in STORMTOP?
Guys It appears that the wet phase of the MJO has pretty much arrived!
THANXZ WHIRLWIND
Check out this eye....On his way to CAT 2 status.

Any takers on what upper level conditions the NHC says is going to inhibit 96L? I just don't see severe shear in its forecast track. What am I missing?
osted By: ST0RMTOP at 6:57 PM AST on July 11, 2006.
ITS PRETY SAD AND PATHETIC FOR SOMEONE TO PRETND TO BE ME..DONT PEOPLE HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO THAN DO A BAD IMPRESION OF STORMTOP..I AM THE REAL STORMTOP THE FAKE NEEDS TO GET A LIFE AND YOU PEOPLE NEED IGNORE HIS CRAP!! LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG THER WILL BE NOTHING FORMING IN THE TROPCS FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS..ITS WRITEN IN STONE SO IGNORE THE BLOBS THAT ARE OUT THERE THATS ALL IT IS BLOBS...STORMTOP


stormtop....in my opinion....that person is not givin you a bad impression. You are as bad as anyone can get in this day and age.

I'm not upset with ur forecasts......sometimes they can be good and right.....everyone do their own forecasts here..and thats good.

but when u insult people on this blog.....it just sickens me.....U are the one who need to get a life.....and let me tell you...I am now comparing you Hurricane katrina.....

your track was right as the NWS predicted but just like Katrina, u are mean, harmful, awful and just plain bad and no one wants anymore of u.


Have a nice day STORMTOP...May the Lord bless every bit of your sour attitude.
Weather456, that is not the real Stormtop:

Posted By: ST0RMTOP at 6:57 PM AST on July 11, 2006.
ITS PRETY SAD AND PATHETIC FOR SOMEONE TO PRETND TO BE ME..DONT PEOPLE HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO DO THAN DO A BAD IMPRESION OF STORMTOP..I AM THE REAL STORMTOP THE FAKE NEEDS TO GET A LIFE AND YOU PEOPLE NEED IGNORE HIS CRAP!! LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG THER WILL BE NOTHING FORMING IN THE TROPCS FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS..ITS WRITEN IN STONE SO IGNORE THE BLOBS THAT ARE OUT THERE THATS ALL IT IS BLOBS...STORMTOP

Notice the zero.

The impersonator is saying that the real Stormtop is impersonating him, the fake one!!!
Nole, it looks like it has some shear just ahead of it, if it can get around that or it dies then it may have a chance, but not likely
I figured Bud was growing an eye a couple hours ago. Cool. Finally some action - although it's in the Pacific, which is kind of like kissing your sister. Anyway, what's all this malarky about Stormtop anyway? Is it just me or does his/her little rant sound a lot like the wizard in the Wizard of Oz saying "pay no attention to that man behind the curtain, I am the great and powerful Stormtop." Sorry, couldn't resist. Anyhoo, I'm out. Nice chatting with you all today, be fun to catch up with you all tomorrow - and for those Floyd fans out there: Shine on you crazy Diamond.
I know that. It was directed to the real STORMTOP.
Imagery looks like it shows shear in front of it. I have not looked at models lately.

SJ
sorry about that i took it for the real stormtop...it is directed to the stormtop with a zero
On shear maps, what is the difference between -10 and +10 (don't say 20 you math majors!!) Is it direction?
If you are talking about this map, the -10 means that shear has decreased by 10 kts; +10 means that it has increased by 10 kts, both over the past 24 hours.
Thank you, MichaelSTL. It's the zero and STORMTOP doesn't have all those typo's.
I think that it is funny when the fake Stormtop says that he is the the real one and that the real Stormtop is the fake one.
STL, I'm talking about the 200mb to 850mb shear maps (with streamlines) on the Navy site.
Hello all this is just to try if I can enter this blog or not. I will be new to this blog and will come back. Take care and see you later.
welcome BahamaPapa
Visit my blog for Shear Maps and Steering Layer maps.
Thanks Weather456 it seems to be working. This is a very interesting site and i will be back for much more.
534. Inyo
Bud is blowing up.. i bet around tomorrow at this time it's flirting with catergory 3

no threat to land but it's mentioned in the Los Angeles forecast discussion.. may enhance mountain thunderstorms next week.
has anyone realize that this is the first time since 2004 that we have gone one month without a name storm between June and November.

the last time that happen was between Nicole in october 2004 and Otto in December 2004.
Bud will be a Strong CAT 2 or Maybe CAT 3 by tommorow morning.

Here's The latest Discussion from Stacy Stewart...

latest satellite imagery reveals Bud has developed a banded eye
feature...indicating it is now a hurricane and is also undergoing
rapid intensification. The only significant change to the previous
advisory is to update the current intensity...increase the
intensity trend...and expand the wind radii. Bud is several hours
into its present rapid intensification trend...and environmental
conditions appear favorable for this trend to continue for at least
the next 12-18 hours.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/2230z 14.2n 113.1w 65 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 14.8n 114.5w 80 kt
24hr VT 12/1800z 15.5n 116.4w 90 kt
36hr VT 13/0600z 16.3n 118.2w 95 kt
48hr VT 13/1800z 16.8n 120.4w 95 kt
72hr VT 14/1800z 17.0n 124.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 15/1800z 17.0n 127.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 16/1800z 17.0n 130.5w 50 kt



Jp hurricane my blog also contains steering layer maps and shear maps also if u need them.
I assume that this is what you want.
I'm begining to think 17 named storms is a bit too much......unless we are in for a ride in August, September, October, November and may be December.
but i seem to forget that something bad is going to happen from all this tranquility... maybe it's the calm before the storm.
evening everybody!!! whats going on?
what is the reason that the Bahama Blob has not formed into a depression yet?????????????
This JP...Link
wow that eye is geting vary small now
Its amazing what 2005 really has done to alot of people's thinking in the weather community in gerneral.I really wish people would under stand that what happened in 2005 happenes once every 50 years.2006 is of to a very normal start which means june and july are very weak months for tropical activity.Once august arrives we hit a sharp ramp up in activity if you remember 2004 was a really quiet season till august came around and then people were praying for it to stop i was one of them.So i expect in the next 2-4 weeks for things to get going across the Atlantic basin.It really does not matter if we have 10 or 15 hurricanes forming in the atlantic,for example we can have 7 hurricanes and if 5 make lanfall it will probaly go down worse then 2005.I will say a major hurricane a very serious and scary thing to go threw trust i was hanging on for dear life during hurricane in my bathroom when those howling winds were ripping my house apart.Thanks god me and my family made it alright because remember you can replace material things but you cant replace your life.I hope everyone has taken the time to get there hurricane plan in place for them and their family cause it may end up costing u your life if your not properly prepared. thanks adrian
GulfScotsman...There appears to be some anomalous signatures within that system.
Meant to say Hurricane Andrew.
Around and round it goes, oh oh ohhhhhh.

After staring at odd blobs for weeks, seeing the real thing can bring you back to reality.
It looks like a drain.
GulfScotsman...So what do you think about that little ULL in the GOM? You can email me if you choose since it seems to be kids hour on here!
Yep, see a real tropical system. Makes looking at ULL kind of silly!..LOL
GulfScotsman..LOL! I'll do it in a mail.
That area in the GOM looks very spinny. lol What do you think?
hey, im not a kid. Just board and want to talk weather!:)
561. WSI
"Yep, see a real tropical system. Makes looking at ULL kind of silly!."


Indeed, LOL!
I know this sounds crazy, but just read it. I was on a plane ride home last weekend and i was sitting in the second to last row. There were two men behind me. I was just sitting there and i overheard them talking. I heard one of the guys say, "the next storm will make landfall in the U.S (probably Florida) on July 24, 25 and 26. He said that he see's things in his head and he can see those dates, and trees blowing over/houses being ripped/and other damage. He was saying to the other man "you may think im crazy but I see things in my head." He was also saying that he predicted the last 3 storms that hit florida. He knew they were going to hit, and he even had witnesses. He stated that if he gets this prediction right, he is going to go nationwide as a pyschic. I guess he already is a pyschic. Mark these words. A storm will hit the U.S somewhere on July 24, 25 and 26. This guy did not seem like he was joking at all. He was very very serious. Lets see if hes right...And for some reason I believe him. Becuase if you look at maps and discussions, shear is suppost to die down and relax for the next 2-4 weeks. This concerns me.
FLweather...Why are you bolding your posts? If I choose to read what you post I will. Stop shouting at me!
Randrewl, im sorry, i just wanted people to see it and read it. sorry
You were sitting in front of STORMTOP?
where can i go to get better satillite pictures of Bud?
Hahahahah, FFN, no LOL
FLweather...No problem. Everyone is important here...OK?
Kk.
it (GOM UUL) certainly looks neat!!
I'm mesmerized. lol
:0
GulfScotsman...See what I mean?
GulfScotsman ...It is already past his bedtime anyway!
What effect, if any, will the Bahama blob have on the GOM ULL?

What are the chances, with the forecasted lower shear environment in the GOM, that this disturbance survives the trek across FL and makes anything of itself in the GOM?
zzzzzzzzzzzz
cyclone...what storm are you talking about?
Guys that is an ULL...the spin your are seeing is in the upper levels right now.Its very rare for these systems to make the transiton down to the surface.Its possible but not likely.
cyclonebuster...I already spammed your post...don't start this crap tonight.
very funny rendrewl
Randrewl check your mail i sent u a messsage.
Cold air aloft near the center increases the lapse rate promoting convection there. Daytime heating on Yucatan peninsula...convective temp can be above 85? That darn divergent east side.
There you go, an ULL in the gulf.
yes 23...it is in the upper levels. But still nice to look at!! Lets hope we have plenty of UUL to watch this year and no surface lows to run from!
Its a well defined ULL, looks pretty, but it does not have a low level center. Will really need convection to blow up near the center and persist for a few days in order for this to develop. Chances of develoment like all ULL are slim.
Yea thats for sure....
these kind of days in the tropics are nice but boring
true bama, at least no one's getting hurt though
i agree weatherguy03...the chances for for it to make the transition are very small.
Regarding GulfScotsman's satellite capture: Thanks for the upper level/lower level distinction; otherwise, I think those of us in Florida would begin to hunker down!
cyclonebuster...I spammed that tunnel post also. Go away!
Man Looking at these little play toys I almost forgot what a Hurricane looked like lol. Bud chuggin along, for sure. AND YES THAT IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND AND EYE, study it.
Gulf, there's not much convection around it.
GulfScotsman ...do you remember Zeta? If you do then that will explain the upper level low thing. I personally have turned this ULL over to a higher authority who will not be posting on this board...sorry...all there is to say right now.
It sure is PP. Let's hope we don't see too much of that over here. :)
Here is a better look at your "tight center of rotation" Cyclone. It looks more like one of those ghost from Ms. Pacman to me!


Link
Gulf Quick Scat Blob image.

Looks boring.
cyclonebuster...People...if you do not spam this poster into never-never land...he will keep doing this!
yes it does, lol
Is the Bahama Blob going to trek across FL and into the GOM, or is there not going to be anything left of it by that time?
Agreed Andrew we need a break in SFL this year. Still drive around looking at blue tarps, scattered but still there.
GulfScotsman

An upper level low is a region of positive vorticity. This positive vorticity can be caused by counterclockwise curvature around the upper level trough and counterclockwise shear associated with the speed shear of a jet streak. The circulation around an upper level low can build to the surface over time. In these cases two areas of low pressure will be noticed on the surface chart. These are sometimes referred to as double-barrel low-pressure systems. Upper level lows can also decrease in intensity through time. hope this helps. adrian
Diurnal Max FortLauderdale, convection will fire through the night and most of the day tomorrow.
there was an el nino event towards the end of the 2004 season right??
Thanks for the info 23
NO....the time for that to have occured is now past us in my opinion.
While the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles that Dr. Masters mentions in his post doesn't look impressive at the moment - it's entering an area of high SSTs, an area of low shear (uncharactaristic of 2006 thus far) almost all models have initialized, the SHIPS and KAC R/D link have it as a minimal TS in 96hrs with 200-850MB shear abating through Saturday.

Doesn't anyone think this is worth at least discussing?

Oh yeah, this is the StormTop blog...
No problem andrew92 anytime.
And when I mean convection must blow up near the center and maintain itself, I MEAN BLOWUP!..LOL Not a few storms here and there. Like I said oneday, 1 out of 10 of these will turn tropical.
can someone post center of bahama blob?
weatherguy03...Right! And there is nothing "Tropical" tonight!
Diurnal Minimum sorry lol
Alright guys, i'm going to watch Last Comic Standing now. Will catch ya later.
You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.



we now have TD 04E

and are hurricane is up to 80kts and mb dwon to 975mb

Link
Pulse...my question is, what, if anything becomes of this disturbed area after it crosses FL. I know none of the models show it doing anything after crossing the state, but I'm wondering why. It seems that if it gets into the GOM as an area of (somewhat) lower pressure, and the shear environment weakens (as forecast), then it bears watching.
Nice analysis 23! Very true. Just enough shear to keep this from not developing, but its hung in there today. Plenty of time to watch it.
Thanks Taz!!
canekid... I know I looked at the models and i believe that it could strengthen to ts status
Thanks Roman - your post was the reason I took a closer look!
FLN, it should weaken once it gets into the Peninsula. Then move more NW and N as a trough moves down towards the end of the week. Its not really much anyway, so it will just dissapate.
Here is the NAM showing a warm core system off the west coast of Florida developing on Thursday I believe. Not sure not good at reading these phase analysis. Any thoughts?

Link
Anything approaching bears watching, I do, not all the time but I keep an eye on them. These may be blobs of crap but ya know they seem to hold together and as you see with Alberto it only takes a short period of time in the right conditions for something to develop. Upper level winds are not right now, maybe in a couple of days. Point is that it's not going to hit anyone soon, models are crap at this point, watch the loops tomorrow and Thursday and see what happens. I will however keep one eye on BB as it crosses the Gulf Stream, can't let that nam go from a couple of days ago.
I dont put much faith in those. It can show a very weak system and still show up on that phase analysis. I look directly at the models.
oh TD 04E it look like it will cross a vary small part of MX it looks like and may be come TD 2 in the gulf keep a eye on it
Let it go PP!..LOL Upper Level winds actually are not bad near the Bahamas, but ya know what we dont have, a LLC. Its just a blob of T-storms.
so X the phase analysis...got it!
Why are the models crap PP? Just wondering what makes you say that?
jphurricane2006...Just snap away! He won't go away unless you ignore him.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION(Highlights)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING WNW AT AROUND 15 KT
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU.

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. WESTERN CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE N
GULF GIVING THE AREA E/SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
GR
It was the Nam loop from the NHC 03, Turtle posted it yesterday afternoon.
Thx bama and weatherguy...I'll watch it over the next couple of days.
Oh yeah, I saw the NAM try to develop this. I dont put much faith in the NAM with tropical systems. I know Turtle hates when I say this..LOL I didnt see much with the GFS, GFS is my friend:)
Thanks for the link Taz. Bud is looking quite sporty tonight. That other depression has a pretty large circulation, too. Interesting how the east Pacific lit up as the MJO reached it--even if they say the MJO is weak.
You still out there Bama?
ProgressivePulse...Almost always I would agree with you on the Gulf Stream thing and the Bahamas. This time I am even disagreeing with myself. Nothing will develop there. The GOM is the "hot" area in the next couple days. I'll talk about the "wave" once it gets around Hispaniola...if it makes it.
Just a reminder for all those "bahama blob" commenters:

In excess of 300,000 people live in The Bahamas, and the highest point anywhere in the islands is only 200 feet. Please don't go wishing any storms to start right on top of us! (vbg)

Also, I saw mention earlier of a mid level low over the SE Bahamas, and some people have talked about the rain potential. I will say that we have had limited rainfall here today, and it seems that a lot of what is falling is not hitting the ground. That blob that was visible about 1 hour ago(around 8 EDT) on the Nassau radar view which someone posted brought some wind gusts but almost no precipitation.

I think the experts (NWS) have probably pegged this current situation correctly as not likely to show further development. I wouldn't take a guess on next week, though.
Ya know something Rand, ya may have something there. The shear really looks like its gonna decrease the next week. First time this season I have seen most of the models agreeing with this. Will be interesting to watch it.
Let what go 03 lol, I know this thing won't develop into much more than a T-Storm, you look at any of my posts all day? Personal curiosity about the NAM posted the other day is all.

I shoulden't say the models are crap but, I just don't use them at all until there is a system.
weatherguy03...thanks. Really sticking my neck out on that one but I see what I see and if this ULL can't make the crossing in time...things will be very favorable!
CMC still spinning something up.

NOGAPS with a pretty well organized wave into florida.
I was kidding with ya PP!! I know!..LOL You should look at them alittle more, they are helpful in getting a feel for the Upper Level environment in the short term.
yea im here baybuddy
Those runs were from this morning. Been awhile, wont get new ones until the early morning hours.
Its fun trying to figure out what these things will do. After all of these years I still scratch my head!..LOL

GFS vs. NAM from here.

GFS model stands for the Global Forecast System model...the newest model version of what used to be called the AVN/MRF model (AVN=aviation, MRF= medium range forecast model). The GFS is a global spectral model and predicts for the many regions of the world. It's a relatively coarse model, not as fine a resolution as the NAM described below. Another subset of the model, the GFSX (X for extended) also predicts over longer ranges, as much as 144 hours to 384 hours into the future. It's run 4 times a day. While not as 'fine' a resolution as the NAM model, the GFS model has wonderful features and is the one I usually bet on.

NAM stands for the North American Mesoscale model. Previously known as the Eta model, it was renamed on 1/25/05. Eta wasn't an acronym...it's the name of the model's vertical axis of its mathematical step function. The NAM has different physics than the GFS and is a higher resolution, model. It attempts to predict in areas as small as several miles wide. In meteorology, that's referred to as a "mesoscale" area. (Thunderstorms are mesoscale phenomena.) It only predicts for North America. It's run 4x daily and the usual form predicts 84 hours into the future. Experimental extended versions are being developed.

i havent ever looked at models until this season, but ive noticed that the CMC overdevelops systems alot. Is this a normal thing for the CMC to do or is it just being funny this year.
663. PBG00
Hey guys..Peoples lives are at stake? What did I miss? Went to a flag football game.I couldn't have been gone THAT long.
Normal Bama.
interesting babbit
Nothing go back to the game, T-Storms lol
Hey, do you rember last year when the news hyped up T.S. Arlene only to have nothing happen? Then Cindy comes along and we got a good amount of wind and water. I cant remember, but the news must not of said a lot about Cindy because I actually went to work. I was on the causway when all of the transformers blew in sequence as I was driving along. I made it halfway across when SFPD closed the road due to flooding.
668. PBG00
I used to go nuts watchin those models..now I don't bother until a storm has developed
NAM North American Mesoscale (formerly Eta - renamed January 25, 2005), a model originating in Yugoslavia (now Serbia) in the 1970s by Zavia Janjić and Fedor Mesinger and run operationally at the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

NMM-WRF the Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model will become the NAM at NCEP in June 2006 replacing the Eta model

So the NAM is now the WRF.
670. PBG00
T-storms canceled the game! LOL
Earlier ya'll brought up about the UCF model how it's aggressive now - great in Wilma. When there's a TD or stronger it comes up as the official (NWS). When an invest, it's on objective. Currently it says it's showing the LBAR, which is begining to show an inconvinence for Hispanole & eastern Cuba. Once there is TD you can choose if you want to view the objective or offical forcast.
I heard that 03, not positive though
Thats why it will be interesting to see how the NAM/WRF will perform this season. But, I am still a GFS/NOGAPS fan!
ProgressivePulse...Football..good! Storms...not good!. LOL!
Turtle know more about that PP, he has the inside info!..LOL
For formation 03?

Got to go with the GFDL on track right?
678. PBG00
Randrewl..football good, standing in t-storms watching football bad
and intensity
Yes he does, and NAM had a good look at Alberto a couple days before.
Nobody throw anything at me for asking this, Cyclone will you please go to my blog and explain this "tunnel" theory?
weatherguy03...You are quicker at this....tell us how the shear situation will develop in the GOM and around the Yucatan after Friday this week. And how will that affect our little central wave? Cause you know it is heading right into the channel.
If you have a weather blog, you have something to post about every day. That seems like a cop out. Neil Frank quit the NHC and became a weather announcer on channel 11. I've heard him speak a couple times, and he said he regretted the move. Seems like a lot of parallels there.

I can see how he might have been "induced" to retire early since he speaks freely. That wouldn't sit well in a bureacracy. I don't know what the whole story is, of course.

Neil Frank was the first guy to put a face on the NHC. He does have a good camera presence. I couldn't tell you what the other guys since at the NHC have looked like.
I just like using the satalites for my info, glance at models.
Cindy was more of a Louisiana storm at first, so local media ignored it a bit. It took a more NW motion at landfall and since we were on East side I guess it pushed water up the bay causing the Causeway to get closed.

Link

this is a link showing it landfalling. YOu can see shortly after it made landfall it started heading more toward our area. Remember in the post storm report Cindy was upgraded to a Hurricane.
The GFDL is interesting. It really is up and down when a storm first develops. It was all over the place with Alberto and never really got a hold on it. Last year though it did get track fairly well. Still the GFS did the best on track last season. Intensity is always the hardest one, Boy is it tough. I usually use a consensus when it comes to intensity and my gut!..LOL
PBG00...LOL!
yea i remember with Arlene channle 5 showed a picture of a small tree, about 2 inches thick, broken in half, supposedly from the storm. I think they cut the tree themselves, just so their house would be on tv.
ProgressivePulse...This person has style people!
Shear will continue to be up in the Caribbean, BUT the main differences I see is the lowering of the shear in the Gulf. Also, even thought the Caribbean shear will still be high, it will not be as high as it has been. It looks like the area of high shear over the tropical Atlantic is beginning to shrink, if the models are right.
Also shear will decrease North of the islands as well. Near the Bahamas.
The coolest part of this whole blog is the fact that you can delegate tasks to those that are smarter than you. You just have to know how to ask intelligent questions. That takes a lot of understanding in itself. Just keep asking intelligent questions people...you will get the answers!
Good High School Science Teacher Randrewl lol, still talk to him today.
weatherguy03...Absolutely! See how you get answers! Thanks guy. My thoughts were the same for the Gulf...just not on the Bahamas.
So, focus of attention is not about blobs. It is focusing on the future. Which we should all be doing already. But especially regarding tropical weather! It ain't about what is happening today so much as next week or after!
Once the wave crosses SFL will start to enjoy the typical summer of early morning showers and inland T-Storms in the afternoon and is supposed to continue through 7 days.
I recommend a glance at Bob to clear the brain of blobs.
Sorry! I just kilt the blog!!!!!!!
Bob sorry lol! Glance at BUD
Can somebody post a good link to see Hurricane Bud?
I am tired of blobs lol!! I think I'm going to ignore them till August
Bud looks like it has some dry air gettin in
Yea we cancelled my son's birthday party because of Arlene. All we got was a little rain.
Not that I minded not having thirty screaming four year old crumb-makers running amok in my house.
true....lots of screaming little kids are never fun. Much rather have a nice relaxng TS!!
Certainly could use the rain from one right about now. Seems like everyones drought has ended around the gulf except for Lower Alabama adn the panhandle of Florida
Glance at Bob! Hey PP!!..LOL
I was surprised to see it get to a Hurricane SJ, probably short lived. Gets the blood pumpin though
You like that huh Bob lol, when is your name up anyway?
I havent had any significant rain in a long while. Last week there was a gullywasher in f'hope but we didnt get a drop.
I found Bud....still looking for Bob! you're right PP, we could keep looking for bob until there is a storm in the atlantic. LOL!
Who TF is Bob?
Bud / Bob same thing right? haha
im thinking about buying some of those white rocks that they use out west to cover their yards. Then just paint the dang things green since mother nature doesn't want to help.
No...I wanna know who exactly is Bob??
See you in the morning JP and, no, nothing will have changed.
03 = Bob
I am Bob!..LOL

Not sure PP.
PP im just saying...lets keep looking for Bob in the pacific...it will keep us busy until a real storm forms in the atlantic. Then we dont have to look at blobs anymore!
When will Bubba make the list? I could see hurricane Bubba hitting the redneck riviera
I think that is his middle name! First and last are Sponge and Pants!
What kind of shear environment did Bud develop and undergo rapid intensification in? It looks like 10-20 kt range to my untrained eye.
weatherguy03...I'm totally spun now!
Its ok Rand. Most know me as Bob on here. Now ya know!..LOL
Bama I looked just to clear my head, seeing blobs in my sleep.
Yes Hurricane bubba would make a great name for a storm! Just feel sorry for whoever it hits. Could you imagine telling people you lost your house in hurricane bubba. No one would take you seriously.
PP must have children!..LOL
I have to watch that show everyday!!..LOL
bamaweatherwatcher...Can't be much worse than Wilma!
True...i guess it would be hard for Flinstone fans to respect a hurricane Wilma.
Still there 03

Can you tell me what the msg1 images are on the Navy site for 96L?

Hurricane Bubba hitting down here in Pensacola or Gulf shores..Half the men here would be kidded about having a hurricane named about them.

Good comment Bay
Rolltide..LOL!
Are the Meteosat images?

They post both as long as it is in the field of view?
Interesting stuff about models on this forum. A bit technical for me. Here's a comment from

Dr. Bill Bua
World Weather Building
5200 Auth Road, Rm. 202
Camp Springs, MD 20746

The NAMX has been tending to create spurious tropical cyclones, and it would appear that this will be a feature of this model. I suspect it's the result of the non-hydrostatic nature of the model (buoyancy is predicted, at least at the 12-km/resolved scale of the model). Retrospective runs from last summer handled the development of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Rita much better than the NAM, and really "went to town" on their deepening into major hurricanes.

The spurious cyclone problem was also a problem with the GFS (and still is to a small extent). I would expect to see some more false alarms out of the NAMX when it's put into operations, but since it's not really used for hurricane guidance (a Hurricane WRF is under development, however, that'll be tuned to handle hurricanes specifically), it's not a show-stopper for implementation. You just have to know to look out for these false alarms.

If the GFS also develops a tropical system, I'd suggest that would be a good way to confirm development.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY
.
I think the NAMX is the model that replaced the old NAM.
bappit..Great information. Thanks!
About any second now we should be getting the latest epiphany from Stormtop!
Bud is 90 mph hurricane!
Sorry SJ, I am not sure.
New NHC guidance has Bud as a Cat 3 at 36 and 48 hours before weakening over cooler water.
Random thoughts:

Don't think that MetEd forum is going to last. Fewer than 60 posts.

I never knew there was a World Weather Building. Sort of like U.N.C.L.E. (Sorry, some of y'all may not remember.)

Speaking of Bob, what is the news from Bikini Bottom?

EdMahmoudHome...Geezus..there's a big surprise! Sorry man..I don't care anything about Pac storms! I'm only here for the Atlantic. Have fun with that one.
hey i found bubba!!!

Well, Atlantic storms are far more interesting.

I guess same theory as to why I watched some of the Italy-German soccer bore-a-thon last weekend- because there was nothing else on.
bamaweatherwatcher..That little kinda blob thingy? HA HA
?????
yea...what did you expect a bubba to be?!!
EdMahmoudHome...I meant no offense. It's ...what's the point?
bamaweatherwatcher...You need a spanking!
Bubba heard shear, thought they said beer, and came a runnin!
a spanking... why?
When the guy got head butted, did he go down for real or was it another flop?

Scoring doesn't matter,Bama scored like 20 points last year but I still liked watching it.

Is that bahama Blob gonna hit the gulf?
Bud looks amazing..and what's important to remember is where bud is - it's 6:30 there, or close to the diurnal MINIMUM. In 8-9 hours it'll hit max...I'd say Cat3-4 bud before I wake up tomorrow.
Guys i really love tracking hurricanes but it seems like were just gonna have to wait cause it's not gonna happen anytime soon.Enjoy the quiet time while it lasts.... adrian
jphurricane2006..speaking of going down...I sent a message to Steph at TWC and mentioned we would all appreciate her appearance on this blog. Sources confirm that is definitely under consideration! Pant, Pant! I'll let you know!
Bed time, just wanted to check short loop on 96L, Bahama Mama (not looking impressive) and latest updates on Pacific, after an evening chilling w/ the family.


Boy, 96L has gotten a lot tinier and less impressive looking than yestersay, but that one small area of storms is persistent.


If it is going to develop, later it waits, better the chance it slides under Hispaniola and avoids getting torn up, and makes it into Florida or the Gulf.

If it is going to develop, noticed GFDL loses it immediately and SHIPs shows status quo next 120 hours, so the models aren't too impressed.
That's seriously dry air north of P.R. The trough is supposed to sink southwestward across the Caribbean according to these guys. It will be interesting to see how 96L negotiates the hazards until it gets past Jamaica.
jphurricane2006..So I want you to tell me what is going to happen in the Gulf and or around the Yucatan towards the weekend?
I got a really large nostril full of this Communist Cuban Blob that hit here earlier this evening and it smelled like more stuff behind it.
775. Inyo
I wish there were an E-pac blog/forum. Obviously these storms are less likely to cause loss of life and property, so they get less attention. However, for that reason it's more fun, to get excited about a 'fish storm' like Bud that isn't going to hurt anyone. In addition, E-PAC storms do actually affect me... i work in the mountains of southern California, where dying e-pac storms often bring flash flooding and storms.

Atlantic storms get more attention because they affect more people... deservingly so. But the E-pac storms offer an opportunity to learn about the storms without (usually) having to worry about running away from them... although they can menace Baja sometimes.

Anyway, someone posted about the MJO... I am familiar with its effects on winter storms on California but didn't realize they have big effects on the hurricanes. Does it affect atlantic storms as well? MJO is something I'd like to learn more about so if anyone is bored and knowledgable it would be great to get a post
Link

looks like a 12 hr loop shows our Gulf ULL is losing some circulation
jphurricane2006...So you are discounting this GOM ULL by Thursday and anything else near the "Ditch" by the weekend? Everyone is telling me about the Bahamas and a drop in shear to the north. Well, drops in shear have happened there since Alberto and nothing! I am disagreeing even with myself about the Bahamas. I do not see that as a possibility. Just my personal thoughts. Thanks for yours.
782. jeffB
Randrewl wrote:

speaking of going down...I sent a message to Steph at TWC and mentioned we would all appreciate her appearance on this blog. Sources confirm that is definitely under consideration! Pant, Pant! I'll let you know!

Oh, classy. The one thing missing from this blog is more horndogging. :-/
I hate this. If there is no invest on a system....I can't get the microwave image I need to know what I am looking at! There is some reason for withholding the invest people. They do not want me to see what I want I know that for sure!
jphurricane2006...Save yourself the trouble. Just predict 10 days out. It is more better that way!
jphurricane2006...Yah, Mo better! The GOM is all there is in the nest week! Forget waves until Hispaniola. I told you that before.
"I sent a message to Steph at TWC ....Pant, Pant! I'll let you know!"

thanks randrool! LOL
nexzt...nixt...next! There!
thelmores....I do my part!
Pant...no...part is right!
Is anyone else hanging on the "ignore" key?
Next wave ought to be crossing land about the Diurnal Max, should make for a noisy morning for sure.
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:05 PM PDT on July 11, 2006.
thelmores at 3:03 AM GMT on July 12, 2006.
"I sent a message to Steph at TWC ....Pant, Pant! I'll let you know!"

thanks randrool! LOL

Hey! I wonder if Steph would like my "TUNNELS"??


i would say NO to that
Storms already firing around the SW Bahamas
Inyo Here are some MJO links that have of good use to me.
ProgressivePulse...Geezus...what wave is that? And what land ...where?
Tazmanian...Hey Taz! How are you?
ummm the wave coming across SFL tonight and tomorrow!
jphurricane2006...Flare? In the Bahamas? Just a minor "flesh" wound!
oh...finally a good laugh..


"Ran-Drool"...


hope ya'll are having an enjoyable evening (Looking around tentatively for floodzonenc...hopefully I am safe for now...)
Fire in the Hole!
ProgressivePulse...Good God...You've been listening to the local weather guy again. Maybe a few showers in south FL manana...ain't gonna be much.
aquak9...Glad you enjoyed that. I thought was extremely funny myself!
15 to 20 kts wind tomorrow by the locals, might make the nips hard.
ProgressivePulse...Won't happen friend. Minor showers. That's it.
I know lol! 15 to 20kts is about normal at the beach!
Side note, shear is becoming non existant for BB up till FL coast.
SO is that ULL in the Gulf.
Good evening, all!

Aqua, if you're still here tonight, I wanted to apologize again. I sent a second e-mail to you where I tried to explain. I hope that you'll read it if you haven't already.
PP...The Gulf.
We are totally cool, FZ. but I can't chit-chat on this blog, I have too much respect for the Good Dr.
How far away is the wave? Well at 20mph I give it till maybe Sunday at the earliest to make an appearance somewhere under Cuba. Cause that's where it's going. If it does not...then that is over. If it does then you see what I mean.
LOL...
cyclonebuster...Slow down your loop! It is more comprehensible that way!
Sorry....I couldn't help myself!
2fast2furious "The Blob Moves"
LOL
Thanks, aqua! And a good night to all. Keep track of any blobs that want to creep up the coast and rain on my parade up here in...

the Flood Zone! (Cue twilight zone theme)
LOLLOLLOLLOL!
cyclonebuster....Read this! Link
They make no mention of supersonic clouds!
Hi all - just checking in while on vacation. Nothing doing until the Atlantic wave hits the Caribbean (if it develops). But what's that on the Pacific side south of Mexico?
jphurricane2006....Now that's funny right there! You still with us?
jphurricane2006..Ya gotta consider the source. Forget it.
dos any one hno when the next update is for hurricane bud?
and how march stonger you think it is right now
Iam of to bed nothing to lose sleep for right now.goodnight guys.
JP, I'm working with Steph's scheduler. Next time she is in our area for sure we will have a visit. That would be cool!
well any want tojoin me on my blog
Tazmanian..Tell me about your blog.
Tazmanian next update on hurricne bud will at 5:00am edt.Goodnight everyone.
Randrewl its a coool blog come see
23...See ya.
What blog? This one or do you have another address?
cyclonebuster,

After looking extremely hard, I finally saw what you're seeing, and it's not the same cloud. The reason tbe cloud had stopped and
started growing is because it was never moving in the first place. What you think you're seeing as one cloud moving quickly west is
actually a handfull of different clouds developing in a way to create an optical illusion. Frames more often might help this, but I
think you're just looking way too close.
this hit my name and you be on my blog
851. Inyo
Bud is looking kinda ill right now.. eyewall replacement or just general decrease in strength? Maybe the system to the east is harming it
Inyo...Real big surprise with an E Pac storm in July isn't it?
Whatever you say cyclonebuster, but there's a reason the cloud stopped a built convection and it's
because it was never moving in the first place. It developed where it is now and and hasent moved much.

On a reasonable note - Bud's decrease of convection is interesting. Im really sure what caused it, but maybe
it will flare up with the dinurnal max.
Correction - I'm not sure what caused the weakening. Could be the developing TD, but it's not too obvious.
: Randrewl you where vary rude in my blog in that for you are ban
Rapid development southwest of Florida, low level ciculation present and low shear ahead with warm sst's. This is where Katrina developed when nobody gave that one a chance.
Whatever you figure out will be wrong because what you're trying to figure out didn't really happen.
Correction...Southeast Florida
Cantoremyhero,

Are you talking about the ULL? QuikSCAT shows no surface low as of 20 minutes ago. Can you
show us what you're looking at?
cantoremyhero welcome i love that id by the way its cool so you like jimcntor from twc? i do well any way wlcome i am taz
They'd probably prove you wrong, but anyways, the fastest scans I've seen are every 6-7 minutes from NASA.
Hey guys before i went to bed i wanted to post this image showing our 2 systems in the east pac.

that did not work....
Lil mess off the coast, hummmmmm begin to wonder.
lil mess is in a decent shear enviornment
ITCZ from Africa to China...
Noon West-coast, 3:00 pm EST

4:00 pm WST, 7:00 pm EST

7:00 pm WST, 10:00 pm EST


Sunset line: 7:00 pm WST -- 10:00 EST


If you will notice from the ITCZ images above, defunct Typhoon Eniniar is now moving Eastwards. Typhoon Billis is striking the Phillipines on its way to Taiwan. The band of storms following Hurricane BUD will straighten out on a line that runs fron Texas to Maine -- you can see the basic pathway already formed, all they have to do is slip into the groove. What it all means is EXTREME weather beginning in one to two days on the Eastern half of CONUS and the arrival in a week of trains of Asia moisture for the Northern and Western states.

At noon WST - 3:00 EST, the daily storm total looked like this:

At 7:00 pm WST - 10:00 EST the daily storm total looked like this:

The Nebraska-Oklahoma severe weather was in Acapulco this morning.

This is yesterday at 7:00 pm WST -- 10:00 EST:

This is what it looked like today at 7:00 pm WST - 10:00 EST:


If you had the kind of archives I have you'd see that the conditions leading up to the Northeast flooding is setting up again, except much stronger and wetter. Some of you don't have a lot of time to rig guy wires on the trees around your houses, and you'll lose not only the trees but also the house when this all hits the fan.

ScienceCop,

Can you expand a little more on what might be setting up for the Northeast.

Thanks,
Patrick
jphurricane2006,

I just thought that it was a little scary that he mentioned that, I do not believe it is going happen.

73737373737373
GIANTS IN 06
73737373737373
Here, jp


Link
IR loop of hurricane Bud.

Whats the size of that eye on Bug Hurricane23?

GIANTS IN 06
Bud's about to choak
is that before or after the choak Trouper?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

CURRENT...LATEST SFC METARS STILL PLACE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/T-WAVE
OVER THE CTRL-WRN BAHAMAS. NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TS STREAMED ACROSS FL DUE
TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LVL CONVG COUPLED WITH INCREASED PWATS
IN ASCN WITH THIS FTR.

LATEST 88D/IR IMAGERY SHOWED CPVERAGE OF PRECIP IN DEFINITELY ON THE
WANE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WITH SUCH A HUMID AIR MASS AND DEEP SE
FLOW IS PLACE...AND THE TWAVE LURKING TO THE SE...REDEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE SHRA/FEW TSRA OVERNIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET...AND WILL NEED
TO KEEP THE CURRENT COASTAL POPS IN PLACE.

WIMMER
& for Bud

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 114.1W...OR 555 NM SSW OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING
WNW 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO
100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. BUD UNDERWENT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CYCLE OVER THE PAST 6 HRS OR SO...AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SOLID
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EYE 15 NM WIDE...AND TWO DOMINANT
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND THE W AND SE SEMICIRCLES. THE STRENGTH OF
THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A BIT BUT BUD NEVERTHELESS HAS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND CLOUD PATTERN. NUMEROUS MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 240 NM SW AND 150 NM NE
SEMICIRCLES.
Track and Model Forcast for Hurricane Bud.

Closeing thoughts and iam gonna call it a night. my thoughts right now 100 kts will be buds peak. Cold waters and inactive cycle.
23...that's a lotta spaghetti!
jp, ya can't speak for all of florida. We could really use about an inch every 3-4 days here in the northeast. The native plants are hurting up here...but I agree, halfway down the state where you are, it could be a messy situation.
jphurricane2006...Stop worrying so much. No blow is going to knock over your trees. Cause by now they should have already been blown over.
good grief...worry about the native plants. Why are they called "native" plants?
jphurricane2006...Maybe. The ULL that was off the Bahamas has made a sharp right and is no longer a player. The ULL in the Gulf is showing a fine footprint and is the only thing to watch right now. The central wave needs to make Hispaniola before it is even in play. Those are my thoughts.
Tropical Depression 4E following Hurricane BUD in East Pacific.


ITCZ 10 pm July 11 WST - 1:00 am July 12 EST
How did I know this would happen? We need to spam this 5 times to erase.
Cop....unless you live out in the EPAC...who really cares? Nobody does so who cares?
Anyone in need of a good Bahamas Radar here is the link, sorry bohamians don't allow direct links on this site.

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/
Posted By: Trouper415 at 4:58 AM GMT on July 12, 2006.
ScienceCop,

Can you expand a little more on what might be setting up for the Northeast.

Thanks,
Patrick


You can't see it on any of the satellite pictures because it's spread over four pictures. The CONUS (Continental US) images I posted above show spliced pix. You need to pay attention to WEUS, EAUS, EPAC & WATL, especially the water vapor images which will show the flow patterns of the tropical moisture controlled by a hot spot off of Acapulco Mexico.

The ITCZ flow on the solar equator splits into branches on Central America, with the main flow going west as seen on the ITCZ pix. An artery moves up Mexico and splits again, with an intermittent branch, on-again-off-again, going north of the Gulf of Mexico and up the Northeast. The other branch goes up the Rocky Mountains and curves East.

The flooding in Washington through the Northeast involved the Texas-branch flow and this drew in a much-commented near-tropical-storm that had been lingering over the Bahamas. This is not an exact repeat of that sequence, but important elements persist.

The moisture contents generated by Hurricane BUD, and now TD4E following it, are raising a lot of heat and moisture out of that Acapulco hot spot. They have not yet, but will soon, reached the position where the draught north up the Mexican offramp of the ITCZ weather superhighway will take that heat and moisture and move it rapidly northwards. I expect the re-emergence of the branch that splits off over Northeast Mexico, up through Central Texas, to reconnect within this next day. Generally these air parcels are moving at 50 miles per hour or better, but gusts higher occur and local conditions make for 60-70 mile ground wind speeds in places. The prevailing wind patterns should draw this moisture up to the North Atlantic.

Insufficient data to plot an exact course. My middle-course projection is a line from Brownsville to Cape Cod. Time of day of arrival of air masses is critical to the weather product, with the majority of intense activity occurring between 3:00 pm to 2:00 am local solar time. This isn't the only weather in the country, and interactions with other forces will produce local nulls or further intensification. The spots producing severe weather reports tonight are all insignificant tiny cloud spots, so that shows it doesn't require a giant cloud "blob" to blow the shade tree through your roof.


Great site to bookmark, radar is one of the best I have seen.
ProgressivePulse...Unfortunately it is the only one! It sucks...but thanks for reminding me!
Till it gets into the Gulf Stream it is the lonely soldier. Still holding on to the NAM, till it is clear of the area.
In approx 25 mins. I personally will be covered in some narsty weather. Just a shower!
ProgressivePulse...You still hanging on that one? I don't know. I'm arguing with myself about the Bahamas right now. I don't see anything. If you do tell me.
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:27 AM GMT on July 12, 2006.
Cop....unless you live out in the EPAC...who really cares? Nobody does so who cares?


You "blobs" mean more to you than real weather. I had to sift through 800 posts about weak little blobs, that looking at the ITCZ are just pixel-sized compared to the three cyclones now active on the ITCZ. I remember in 2004 looking at a satpic with four cyclones spinning in one picture.

The teleconnections of weather events is central to longer-range predictions. I think 21 day predictions are possible, but it takes studying the heatbeats of the planetary weather system. Somebody has to do that so that instruments someday placed at key points will be able to alert those who care that the earmarks of a tropical cyclone has now reached the coast of Africa, and will be on land in North Carolina in 11 days at category 2. You guys are playing guessing games, and are not advancing the science. You try to beat the NHC forecasts by a couple of hours -- I'm trying to beat it by weeks. They have all those different views: vis, rgb, rb, ft, bd... because each has different information in them. THey have them in the first place because somebody built the package and put it in space. That happened because there was a theory of what instruments needed to be built to give that kind of data.

Right now nobody even has any idea what kind of instruments are needed for 21 day forecasts. They can't float them as buoys, or put them on the African Coast, or launch them to space until they have a theory that tells them what kind of instruments to make and where they should be put.

You are not helping, but you are tolerated. As far as I know this is not a blob-only-blog. Go ahead and chat like it was a chat room and people can skip over the 750 out of 800 posts that have no particular weather contents while you try to beat the NHC by two hours. As far as I can recall, nobody at all predicted that Washington would flood over that BOB in the Bahamas -- as soon as it hit land it was over as topic of discussion. That BOB did as much damage as a named cyclone would have -- nearly drowned the Declaration of Independence, as if you cared.

The Weather off of Acapulco this morning did damage in Oklahoma and Texas tonite, so it's not just out-to-sea, but here in the heartland where the EPAC matters.

You'll see over the next few days as Hurricane BUD and TD4E leave calling cards all the way to the East Coast.

916. Inyo
Posted By: Randrewl at 4:16 AM GMT on July 12, 2006.
Inyo...Real big surprise with an E Pac storm in July isn't it?


are you trying to be sarcastic or are you just confused? I dont see where anyone was surprised to see a hurricane in the east pacific except maybe stormtop who was ranting and raving about how thered be an inactive e-pac season this year.

as for 'who cares about the eastern pacific', most of you should... although the hurricanes dont directly strike land that often, they greatly affect the southwestern monsoon... the storms' moisture could act to alleviate the horrible drought in most of the Southwest, or it could cause a lot of flash floods. An inactive season could mean more drought in some cases. And, of course, all the moisture makes its way east after that, affecting you too.

If you don't like learning about hurricanes that dont directly affect your life (or you can't comprehend the effects of), just ignore the posts.

and hurricane23... thank you much for the MJO info!
Inyo...I do not care about your precious EPAC whatever it is! I do not care. I am here because I need information....regarding the Atlantic basin! You don't have any...take a hike! I don't care.
Climate variances in this world today are explainable. I'm not talking Al Gore crap. Anyone who still espouses that weather forecasting is not an "exact" science....is either paid heavily to say that or is just ignorant! Most are ignorant because they haven't figured out how to be paid for promoting the global warming debacle.
Who needs some "instruments" off the coast of Africa?
Get out. Just turn on the satellite. I have no problem seeing what is emerging from Africa. Then I know in about ten days by the time whatever it is makes it to Hispaniola that I will be observing. What's the big deal? I actually heard someone say once that "we" should do something to stop those waves that emerge from Africa. I had to tell her that I didn't think that any country on the African Continent would like us to do that. Just maybe they needed the precip.
There is No Global Warming
There is no global warming. Period.

You can't find a real scientist anywhere in the world who can look you in the eye and, without hesitation, without clarification, without saying, kinda, mighta, sorta, if, and or but...say "yes, global warming is with us."

There is no evidence whatsoever to support such claims. Anyone who tells you that scientific research shows warming trends - be they teachers, news casters, Congressmen, Senators, Vice Presidents or Presidents - is wrong. There is no global warming.

Scientific research through U.S. Government satellite and balloon measurements shows that the temperature is actually cooling - very slightly - .037 degrees Celsius.

A little research into modern-day temperature trends bears this out. For example, in 1936 the Midwest of the United States experienced 49 consecutive days of temperatures over 90 degrees. There were another 49 consecutive days in 1955. But in 1992 there was only one day over 90 degrees and in 1997 only 5 days.

Because of modern science and improved equipment, this "cooling" trend has been most accurately documented over the past 18 years. Ironically, that's the same period of time the hysteria has grown over dire warnings of "warming."

In fact, recent severe weather has been directly attributed to a natural phenomenon that occurs every so often called El Nino. It causes ocean temperatures to rise as tropical trade winds actually reverse for a time.

The resulting temperature changes cause severe storms, flooding and even draught on every continent on earth.

It's completely natural. El Nino has been wreaking its havoc across the globe since long before man appeared.

How about the reports that the polar ice cap is melting?

Well, yes it is. In fact, it has been for about a million years or so. We are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe.

There's at least one environmentalist, named Al Gore, who is panicking over the possibility that we may soon lose Glacier National Park in Montana because the ice is melting.

One hates to tell him that we've already lost the glacier that used to cover the whole country.

Perhaps he'll want to start working for new regulations from the Interior Department to begin immediately restoring this lost historical environmental treasure. Re-establishing a sheet of ice covering the entire continent would certainly serve to stop mining, timber cutting and urban sprawl.

There have been similar past periods (1940s-1950s) when the Atlantic was just as active as in recent years. For instance, when we compare Atlantic basin hurricane numbers of the last 15 years with an earlier 15-year period (1950-1964), we see little difference in hurricane frequency or intensity even though global surface temperatures were cooler and there was a general global cooling during 1950-1964 as compared with global warming during 1990-2004.
Midnight WST -- 3:00 AM EST
Picture of the current flow from the Hurricane BUD & TD4E weather complex.



The first ejected waterbomb is seen at northern Mexico border, below Arizona. This has greater heat content and more moisture than the blob over Bahamas which has occupied so much recent attention. Wind drift is a line from BUD to the Great Lakes, but eastwards curvature of that line will occur, with the main stream to develop through Tennessee to the middle Atlantic seaboard. The expected airborne heat and moisture content will accelorate in daylight.

During daylight hours much of the heat and moisture contents will not be detectable by current instruments deployed. As mid afternoon cooling begins condensation there should appear a much more distinct outline of the new main stream.

Most of the moisture and heat seen along the coastline from Panama to Acapulco will upcurve into this main flow. The temperature differentials of these hot moist air packets as latitude increases will cause some dramatic weather effects.

The BUD-TD4E complex are in their midnight lull period and are not impressive in current images. Another day baking in the tropical heat will stir things up again starting in 8 hours from posting time.

This is the posting time solar effects on the ITCZ as of the offical US time website.


will cause some dramatic weather effects.
The BUD-TD4E complex are in their midnight lull period and are not impressive in current images. Another day baking in the tropical heat will stir things up again starting in 8 hours from posting time.
Please expound on the dramatic weather effects?
How is it that in the EPAC there is obviously no diurnal thing happening? I guess that is an exclusive North Atlantic phenomenom?
Get out!
You have some love for nowhere things! Have fun!
I debunked Randrool a long time ago with this page:

http://ecosyn.us/1/1/stormy.html
Increasing Frequency, Increasing Intensity of dangerous storms in recent times.

It doesn't even include the record-smashing year 2005 in the data.

Storms have gotten more frequent. They have gotten more intense.

There was a near cat 5, high cat 4, Typhoon Ewiniar in the Pacific last week. That's gone but there are now two pacific cyclones and a third developing overnight. There already were two Category 5 cyclones in Asia in May, including the earliest ever in the South China Sea. In 2004 I recorded Hurricane Pinball, with Jeanee drifting eastwards out to sea and bounced off of Hurricane Karl and rebounded back towards Florida. Ivan was onscreen at the same time having made landfall in Florida and bounced off a supercell in Pennsylvania and was thrust violently southeast where it clipped Jeanne and made a secnd passage through Florida as a Tropical Depression. Hurricane Lisa was active north of this free-for-all during all this while. From Space you could see four hurricanes at one moment in time. There was also one in the EPAC too.

An almost something that never got a name drowned Washington a couple weeks ago. Nature is not fooled -- you can put names on them or not name them, it doesn't matter to nature.

Houston had 10 inches of rain from a no-name storm. In 2001 they has the 500-year-flood from a tropical storm with a name, but this on without a name came close to being a second 500-year-flood in 5 years. Maybe latter this year they will have their second 500-year flood?

Hey, Randrool, how many years are there supposed to be between 500-year floods? Do you reckon that 5 years is sufficient?

Stop baiting me and address the science. IF you can present evidence instead of propaganda I will change my mind -- because I care about truth and go with the best evidence, even if I have to change my mind because different better evidence has been presented to me. What does it take to make up your mind? Politics? Money? Ideology? Does science ever get a chance to speak to you?



So what are the chance of seeing the Fujiwara effect with Bud and Carlotta?
Also of note is some deep convectin firing around 96L. Unlikely it holds up, but it is a persisitent little sucker.

SJ
StormJunkie:

Slim to none, I'd say. They're too far apart, and their motion is too similar.

Now, for an alternate fun time, check out the 00z GFDL of Bud. Another system develops behind Carlotta.
The area of deep convection that is just west of Andros Island is looking pretty impressive this morning. The wind shear that was in that area yesterday has nearly vanished, and the blob appears to be becoming better organized, each passing hour this morning. The barometric pressure in the area is still relatively high, but has shown a tendancy to fall across the florida Straits this morning. The strong ULL that was in the SE GOM yesterday, that was providing wind shear over this area yesterdy, has rapidly moved off towards the WSW. This, I believe, has open the door for the possibility of TD#2 forming over the Florida Straits, or SE GOM over the next 48 hours.
Hows the wind shear around our bahama blob?
mornin everybody! :)

sure hope the cmc model is wrong...... look out new orleans!

course, the cmc has overhyped about everything so far this year, save alberto.........
thel check this out and any one else.

Any ideas, just false echos? It reminds me of the bats that were seen on radar. Some one posted that a few weeks ago.
It looks almost like 96L may be riding under the worst of the shear.
Cop the cop:

An almost something that never got a name drowned Washington a couple weeks ago.

Washington got flooded before the something-that-never-quite-was was still well south of that area.

Houston had 10 inches of rain from a no-name storm. In 2001 they has the 500-year-flood from a tropical storm with a name, but this on without a name came close to being a second 500-year-flood in 5 years. Maybe latter this year they will have their second 500-year flood?

There is a big difference between 35-plus inches and 10 or 15. Plus, it was an upper level low.


SJ, that looked like a july 4th show.

There are lots of interesting links like this one on the web. They may shed some light on a recent discussion topic.
I've been seeing things like that around Houston, SJ. I thought they were downdrafts from faded t-storms.
That latest CMC model run is just "GREAT NEWS"! Now were going to have to read StormTop's predictions of a CAT 8 TD heading directly for NOLA. I JUST CAN'T WAIT!!!
Tropical Weather Productions proudly presents:

Blobs of the Carribean: Death to all Blobs!
A Caneman Production of a film by Mother nature

Starring: Tropical Blobs
Directed by: Caneman
Screenplay by: Caneman
Produced by: Tropical Weather Systems Inc.
Special Effects created by: Dry Air Intrusion, Cool SST, and Upper Level Windshear.
Special Computer Effects: Caneman Super Ensemble
Musical Score by: Howling Wind
Assistant Director: Landfall Interaction
1st Assistant Director: Eyewall Replacement Cycle
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Note: All tropical blobs in this film were intentionally harmed.
942. IKE
Looks like that system east of the islands is getting it's act together this morning.

ST..coming to a blog near you.......
bappit, I noticed on the WU nexrad that the radar centered over that is down right now, so maybe it had something to do with the radar going out.

SJ
944. IKE
Scrub what I just said about east of the islands....not enough coffee yet.....although it looks like it has some hope.
945. IKE
Then again...maybe there isn't hope for invest 96 whatever it is/was.........Tropical waves...
an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56w/57w south of 15n
moving west 15 kt. The low pressure center from six hours ago
no longer is along the wave.
I checked out the last 40 frames from the Savannah, Ga. / Charleston, S.C. radar and there is a smaller echo pattern at nearly the same time in Georgia. I don't see any preceding rain, but maybe the satellite shows something.
Ike The Florida Straits system is still looking very healthy. the convection fired off early this morning, and has been going strong for several hours now.
948. IKE
Yeah...just looked at a visible satellite...doesn't look like much shear and those thunderstorms are starting to fire already over Florida...there's been a pattern this year of activity around the Bahamas...even Dr. M said to watch the gulf the end of the week.
949. IKE
According to the shear forecast on this website it's favorable the next 72 hours.

If this system would just get west of here in the Florida panhandle it might bring rain.

This might be one of those systems that floats around in the gulf in July.

It could be just a wave...
950. IKE
looks like it's headed for the gulf...moving west/NW.
951. IKE
Fowey Rocks, Fl....Wind Speed (W Spd) 28.0 kts (32.2 mph / 51.9 km/h)
The shear that was there yesterday disappeared when then ULL in the GOM raced off towards the WSW last night. That is about when the convection really fired off early this morning.
Mornin everyone. Sorry to distract yesterday. I am just going to ride along today - I don't have the scientific background to really contribute more than whines about not getting any rain here...I would appreciate a blob alert if anything looks promising as far as rain - I hope nothing more dangerous develops quite frankly.
Good morning...seems like there will be two hurricanes in the EPAC and 96L is looking good.
the tropical models did a good job with bud and td4e over 4 days ago i think... did anyone else notice that
"thel check this out and any one else.

Any ideas, just false echos?"

ahhh, that prob some kind of temperature inversion, or the radar was in a more sensitive dry air mode....

at least that sounds good, thats my story, i'm stickin to it! LOL

looks to me the bahama blob may soon have to re-named to the miami blob! :D
Rain, rain go away...it's rained here in the Keys for what seems a week straight
WX456 I don't believe that the system your looking at, that is approaching the Lesser Antiles is actually 96L. That system was ripped apart by wind shear 48 hours ago when it entered the E. Caribbean. The system your now seeing will, or should be designated 97L or 98L depending upon what they do with Florida Straits system today.
hey, anybody know if we have any soccer matches in Andros today?.....

may have to call em up and give em the "thelmores coc warning"! LOL

hey..... just hold up that soccer match till the blob goes by! :D
962. WSI
"Any ideas, just false echos?"

No, I don't think it was a false echo. Something caused it for sure. I e-mailed one of the meteorologists down there in the Greer office that I know. Will see if he can shed any light on it.
GetReal , u mean 96L is gone...i didnt even see that..thanks
Good morning, all.

Our old friend 96L looks like it is trying to make a comeback. Doesn't look, to my untrained eye, like it quite has a circulation.


BTW, the Pacific stuff close to Mexico does matter, even if one is uninterested otherwise, because outflow from storms near Mexico usually tend to shear/surpress systems in the Gulf or far Western Caribbean, from what I've seen.
I think that is 96L, actually, judging from where it is.
"Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:56 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
thel check this out and any one else."


SJ - That clutter "explosion" from the Greer, SC Radar was interesting enough for me to look into. Since it took place around the time the morning sun was rising, I thought that might be related to the effect. My search led me to this site full of online Navy Aerographer Training Manuals. One of the manuals talks about causes of ground clutter in weather radars including temperature and moisture inversions and also direct effects of the sun at sunrise and sunset. The effects of inversions on weather radars create what is called the "surface duct", so maybe what we were seeing was the effect of some type of inversion lifting as the sun rose, or direct effects of the sunrise, or some combination. Hard to know exactly what caused that effect without knowing more about the conditions at that site. It would be great if somebody with more direct experience with weather radars could weigh in with their opinion.

If you google on the terms "weather radar" "clutter" "surface duct" you find a lot of scientific papers on the topic.

Last night's 0Z GFDL initial position on 96L matches current little flareup.

Of course, GFDL lost it at 6 hours.
Just to add to my post above, checking the surface observations from South Carolina for the past 24 hours, several stations were reporting calm winds 6:00-7:00 AM, with some stations reporting mist and/or haze.
The small Bahamas system has developed an upper anti-cyclonic circulation at the upper levels, and looks as though it could move through the FL straits today. Whatever happens with it, behind that system is some really dry air. Local forecasters are calling for an extended period of dry conditions over the FL peninsula behind the Bahamas system. Current NAAPS measurements of aerosol concentrations show almost the entire Tropical North Atlantic covered with what appears to be African dust, extending all the way to Central America. The latitidunal and longitudinal atmospheric cross sections show a lobe of African dust poised to pass over the Florida peninsula following the exit of the Bahamas system.
People here sure spend a lot of time arguing about trivialities unrelated to weather.

The EPAC systems are both looking very impressive this morning. A cursory look at the conditions on the west coast of Central America - low shear, high SST - helps explain why the same tropical waves that pass through the Caribbean / Bahamas are becoming organized tropical systems on the other side.

Despite the buildup of convection between Cuba and the Bahamas, I still don't think we are going to get much action in the Atlantic today. We had a little squall in Nassau around 8:30 a.m., but the heavier clouds are staying south. I don't see much westward movement either.