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The tropics are finally quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:32 PM GMT on December 09, 2005

There is no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic today for the first time since early November. The remains of Hurricane Epsilon are just a swirl of low clouds at the base of a cold front sweeping towards Europe, and are not a threat to regenerate into a tropical storm. However, all of the computer models are forecasting that a strong extratropical low pressure system will develop on Sunday near the region Epsilon died, and this new low has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Zeta by late next week as it moves slowly westward over the mid-Atlantic. This storm will not be a threat to any land areas, and is expected to recurve harmlessly to the northeast later in the week.

Blog topics for the remainder of the year
I am working on a number of blog topics related to hurricane season that I hope to post over the next two weeks. There include:

1) Why did Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands get missed this year?

2) What was the global hurricane season like? Did the other oceans experience as many intense hurricanes as the Atlantic, supporting a global warming connection?

3) Why was Katrina's storm surge so huge?

4) Was this year's incredible hurricane season partially attributable to global warming?

My next update will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr Masters...it was truely an unbelievable season...
This season is finally over now...really, really, REALLY over...right???
Dr. Masters said

There is no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic today for the first time since early November.

doesn't it seem like June/July??
I am so glad it's over... Thanks Doc.
This is my first post to the Blog but please let me say thet I have thoroughly enjoyed the conversation over the past hurricane season so I decided to join and support the site. I live in Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands so should have a lot of hurricane reports if latest statistic that we are the city most affected by hurricanes in the entire world is correct. lol. Will also try to upload some dramatic damage fotos of Ivan.I have a very huge love for meteorology and in fact was a trained observer back in the 70s. (NOT A PROFESSIONAL)
I await eagerly Dr. Masters answers to those questions!
I got a response from the NHC after pointing out that their FAQ section gave the record number of major hurricanes in a season as 7 in one place but 8 in another (both for 1950).
They said, "Yes, this was an inconsistency because of the "raw" HURDAT data (giving 8 majors) versus the "extra-crispy" (that is, the "bias removed") HURDAT (which gave 7 majors). This will have to be revised anyways in the off-season, so we can make it all consistent then."
Can anyone clarify what the difference between raw & bias removed is? They didn't say which they consider correct.
It feels so lonely out in the Atlantic today.

On a different subject, Cat 5 Hurricanes appear to be a dime a dozen these days, and with Ocean tempertures steadily on the increase due to global warming, we may need a Category 6 for Hurricanes. This category would be the equivalent of an F4 Tornado winds (200 mph plus) Not sure if tornados are rated on steady winds or gusts. Category 6 would probably be close to the theoritical limit for Hurricane speeds, but I think will start seeing such storms as the ocean warms over the decades to come. I can't remember the report, but every 1/2 degree celsius ads 10 Km/h to theoritical wind speed under optimal conditions or something.

Damage accessment for Cat 6 could read. You stay - you die.
Structural failure of shelters likely to be compromised.

welcome Cayman... check out some of the other blogs as well..
The F-scale, though approximate wind ranges are given, is NOT based on wind speed. The Fujita scale is entirely damage based, so an F5 that doesn't hit anything is an F0.
Dr Master, thanks for the info. Looking forward to your other blogs. Like billsfan, I can't remember not looking on this site at tropical weather since maybe last MAY!!!
Can't believe we got a little break in Nov???
Great job with all of the info you and your staff provide!
Thanks to everyone.
Starting next year, the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale will be used. It WILL be based on winds. The meteorologist will have guidelines on the estimated winds to produced damage to certain buildings and the winds will correspond to the rating directly.
Torn, I knew you would have something to contribute to that query by TBA! Thanks for filling us in.
what up

i would like to no are the sea temp going back up or cooling down at this time?
Hrm.. is there actually any pattern to the Saffir-Simpson scale that one could extrapolate from?

Cat 1: 75 80 85 90 95
Cat 2: 100 105 110
Cat 3: 115 120 125 130
Cat 4: 135 140 145 150 155
Cat 5: 160 165 170 175 180 185 190
(no storms stronger than 190mph on record)

Doesn't look like it... wonder how the scale was determined in the first place. I also noticed this year that we had really few Cat 2 hurricanes, and looking at this table I made, Category 2 is actually smaller than the other categories...
I would also like to add my thanks to Dr. Masters. The information you provided this year was incredible. There is now not a day goes by that I don't check this blog. I very much look forward to the upcoming topics. Thanks again.
Torn....thanks for that...how much confidence I wonder will they have in it?
I think there will be quite a bit. It has been tested pretty rigorously and was created by some the foremost researchers, meteorologists, and engineers.
is there a new Saffir-Simpson scale and how dos it work?
Here's the scale I will use in addition to the Saffir-Simpson scale for any storms from here on out, in my own advisories. This scale will run from zero to ten, with zero as a depression and one through three or so being a tropical storm. When giving the overall strength for the storm, I'll give it as I#, when giving just wind I'll use Iw, and for just pressure Ip. For example:

(((Windspeed_in_mph - 30)/15)+((1010-pressure)/11))/2
[round any divions down, and no higher than 10 in a category]

Thus, wind categories would be:

wI0 - 30 to 44
wI1 - 45 to 59
wI2 - 60 to 74
wI3 - 75 to 89
wI4 - 90 to 104
wI5 - 105 to 119
wI6 - 120 to 134
wI7 - 135 to 149
wI8 - 150 to 164
wI9 - 165 to 179
wI10 - Greater than 179

And for pressure:

pI0 - 999 to 1010
pI1 - 987 to 998
pI2 - 975 to 986
pI3 - 963 to 974
pI4 - 951 to 962
pI5 - 939 to 950
pI6 - 927 to 938
pI7 - 915 to 926
pI8 - 903 to 914
pI9 - 891 to 902
pI10 - Less than 891

Thus, Wilma at peak (assuming 185) was:


Katrina at LA landfall (145mph/919mb) was a wI7/pI7, or an I7. Rita, at peak (175mph/897mb) was a wI9/pI9, or an I9. Camille at peak (190mph, 905mb) was a wI10/pI8, or an I9, and so on. Anyone want to look at some historic storms for this? Seems to be working rather well for relative intensities. I think that including the pressure will balance the winds with the size, since low winds for a pressure usually indicates a large windfield.
KRWZ, there are no new Saffir-Simpson scales. The one I just posted is my own personal scale (I=intensity), and the one posted near the top is just a breakdown of the SS.
BWC is blogging on my site: Link
ForecasterColby are the sea temp going back up at this time or going down at this time?
Does anyone know what has happened to Jeff, theboldman? His blog has disappeared and so have his latest comments on various blogs. What's going on ?????
Colby, I like your formula, but:
1. It is too complicated for public use
2. It does not, as is important in the cases of Katrina and Rita, take into account surge, damage, or size of the storm. For instance, Katrina, a 7, was much more devastating than Camille, a 9. KShurricane has a scale on one of his blog entries that you may want to look at.
willtell i think he was on her last night or the night be for i hop he is ok
Dr. Masters,

Those topics sound very interesting. I'm really looking forward to your conclusions.

Just before you know it it will be the old summer time again and we will be back at square one with the hurricane season.

As for where I live last night got quite a downpore where I got 0.09 inches of rain. The most since October.
her is a link that i think ever one would like to see i was going to post it but i think it was to long to post so i will do a link

Too complicated for me...good night. talk to you all tomorrow!
"Global warming" seems more like a natural climatological cycle than man-made since water vapor accounts for much more absorption of infrared light than does CO2. In all likelihood this is a better explanation for warm SST anomalies than blaming gas-guzzling Americans.
I've made an intensity scale and have started to analyze the hurricanes of this year with that scale. It is on my blog.
If tornadic intensity is measured on the Fujita Scale according to the resulting assessable damage, why shouldn't hurricanes be measured likewise? For example, since most hurricane damage is caused by water instead of wind, why not measure ultimate hurricane severity factoring in storm surge along with wind speed and atmospheric pressure?
as far as need a cat6 level...well, thats just ridiculous.

did you notice a trend with the 3 cat5s this year? 175, 175, & 175. there's a huge difference between 175 and 180 that can be seen on IR and whatnot, and is very difficult for hurricanes to reach.

watch wilma's massive intensification for instance. it hit 150kt and then stopped immediately.

the possibility of a 200mph hurricane is there, but there's a reason why no hurricane in the atlantic has reached it: its nigh friggin impossible. it doesn't need to get any worse than a cat5.
Business: Yeah, it's extremely unlikely that we'll ever see a hurricane with 200 mph sustained winds...185-190 seems to be the upper limit...Camille had PERFECT conditions and maxed out at 190...I think you start running up against the laws of physics (air density, friction, heat transfer limitations, etc.) when hurricane wind speeds get up to those enormous velocities.
Looking for weather lore...

Even though it's neat to look at the water vapor clouds and satellite imagery over the Eastern Atlantic, I still like to predict weather anachronistically...

Does anyone else look at the sky for sundogs, or to see if the moon is in a well? How about "horses tails/and fishes scales/make lofty ships/lower their sails?" What exactly does a "tornado sky" look like... not meaning anything related to wall clouds or supercell cyclones. What does it mean when it smells like rain, or smells like snow? In the days before Doppler Radar, what sights/sounds/smells made you go down cellar... or take to the hills?

What's it like when it's "sultry" outside?

(And why can't I get my car windows to quit fogging up on the inside? Benjamin Franklin's Poor Richard comes up empty on that one.)

I'm working to collect of folk meteorological sayings and folklore... Ask parents, grandparents (or think way, way back yourselves) and feel free to bury me under an avalanche of postings, theories and folk wisdom.

Thanks, folks.
dallas: I saw a perfect "mackerel sky" last month...it was pretty cool...Florida is nice and flat...makes for a big sky!
Hey everyone.
hey chaser, how are you?
good evening, all
hey snowboy; good to see you
likewise atmos for sure!

haven't been around for a couple of days since Epsilon got wiped out by those northwesterlies (did you guys see those loops as the winds came in?)
I want to agree with TampaSteve...

There has never been a 200 mph sustained Tropical Cyclone in recorded history in any Basin. Not just the Altantic Basin but anywhere. It's not possible for A Hurricane to reach that intensity. Wilma for instance is barely in the top 10 of all time amongst all Tropical Cyclones in all the world. She didn't reach Sustained wind speeds above 185 mph.

Like Tampa stated correctly...the max sustained wind speeds ever estimated is the 190 mph figure for Camille. It's inportant that people understand that the incredibly low barometric pressure associated with Typhoon Tip of 1979 for instance, which is the all-time record holder for Barometric Pressure never reach sustained winds above Camilles with her lowest pressure reading of 905 mb.

A storms maximim sustained winds are a direct result of the storms lowering barometric pressure and the that of its surroounding environment. In other words, wind is simply air in motion which increases in velocity as a result of the pressure gradient which is intensified by the differences between low pressure and high pressure.

For example, if storm A has a Barometric pressure of 900 mb and its surrounding environment outside of the storms circulation has a standard pressure of 1013mb which is average sea level pessure then it might have maximum sustained winds of 180 mph.

On the other hand, Storm B might be in the same environment wioth a lower presure in its center of 895 mb yet have maximum sustained winds of only 175 mph as a result of the higher pressures outside its circulation much greater than the other storms environment of 1013 mb and the pressure gradient (differences between the two)is not as strong, thus it has slightly less intense winds.

The prssure gradient can best be thought of as a funneling of air...as it gets restricted from a wide space to a more narrow one..it naturally increases in velocity which is how a hurricane derives its wind speeds.

Thats why so many can't understand Wilma only be a category four with 155 mph maximum sustained winds with a Barometric pressure of an astounding 894 mb about 12 hours or so after peak intensity. Yes it had a much lower Barometric pressure than Hurricane Katrina ever had (902 mb at her peak)yet had 20 mph less sustained winds at this point in Wilmas life. This is explained because Wilma had moved into an area of higher sea level pressures than Katrina had in its surrounding environment at the time of these comparisons. Moreover, this is also why Wilma lost 20-30 mph in sustained wind speeds with a barometric pressure of an insignificanrt 2 mb only half a day after reaching peak intensity.

However, all things being pretty much equal, a storms barometric pressure corresponds fairly well to a given wind speed in the vast majority of cases. That's why meteorologists list the most intense hurricanes by barometric pressure rather than recorded or estimated wind speeds. Not to even mention, its difficult to obtain 100% accurate wind speeds in the first place.
yeah it was pretty dramatic, got absolutely shredded in no time at all
Hey there Atmos and snowboy..sorry I was posting my last comment which takes someone with poor typing skills like myself awhile to finish.:)LOl
i agree with your post chaser, so it was worth it lol. you are correct; storm intensity does also depend on the envionment they are in and the one they are moving into
I would be remiss if I didn't add that I believe that Wilmas maximum sustained winds were likely greater than the 155 mb when they had estimated winds at 155 mph. This will most likely be increased somewhat to maybe 165 mph st final analysis yet the explanation remains unchanged regarding the differences in the storms wind speeds relative to the all important pressure gradient. Moreover, I noticed an inconsistency in my aforementioned post as I used Wilma as only being 20 mph off (175 to 155) in one sentence and suggesting 20-30 mph diffrence in winds in another. Thee difference should both be the same 20 to 30 mph depending on the NHC final analysis which already appears to suggest an increase in maximum sustained winds up to 185 mph.
Thanks Atmos..I knew I wasn't telling you anything you didn't already know.:) I just wanted to clarify it for any who may see the post latr on.:)

I know that you and snowboy are extremely knowledgeable already.:)
May I ask what you two (Atmos and snowboy) think will be Kastrinas finall landfall intensities for the La. and MS. landfalls. I know we might not agree with them on it, but I was wondering how much you think they may adjust them nonetheless if at all.
hey good solid post as usual chaser - yeah it's the pressure gradient, not the low pressure itself that drives the winds of any storm.

we have the same principles working in my field, which is groundwater flow...

btw, if I could type as fast as you I'd be ecstatic!
LOL snowboy...thank you but I don't see near as many typos with yours in comparison to mine. I spend way too long corecting typos in my blogs.:)

Will either of you be on much once the tropics settle down?

Also, thank you for the kind words as usual snowboy.:)

I certainly respect both your and Atmos opinions and observations alot.
this will always be a controversial subject chaser. some believe the nhc overestimated the winds (hrd), and some believe they underestimated them (various bloggers). of course, i still believe that damage, storm surge and pressure should be included in the hurricane intensity scale, but i will ignore that and use standard saffir-simpson measurements for winds only. i will give you my view and the view that the nhc will probably take after consulting with dr. powell at the hurricane research division

my view:

LA - cat 4 155 mph
MS - cat 4 135 mph

what the nhc will probably finalize:

LA - cat 3 130 mph
MS - cat 2 110 mph
Thats awesome snowboy..do you enjoy working in that field and how have you to come to gather so much knowledge of storms which is pretty impressio if I may say so.
WOW! Atmos that's exactly what I was thinking to the exact figures.
i will be on from time to time all the way through the winter and spring. i am stilll going to be reading various blogs, and i will be preparing my 2006 outlook (which, by the way, was deleted a few weeks ago, and by tomorrow or sunday i should have reposted with some of my views).
lol chaser
Honestly, I like the final figures we both expect to become a reality over Dr. Powells suggestiona which I'll never scientifically understand although I respect his right to come to his own personal opinion about them.
I need to mention Atmos...that you were the first to post a 2006 outlook on here and it inspired me to post one as well. It will be an interesting season no matter what. I am eagerly looking forward to your new updated blog on the subject.

Do either of you have a fascination with other storms or types of weather outside of tropical cyclones?
yeah chaser, the nhc will probably compromise since dr. powell believes the LA landfall was a minimal cat 3 (LOL) and the MS landfall was cat 1 (LO very L). i doubt the nhc could ever change the winds at landfall by that much in any storm (that would be 2 categories down on each landfall!!!).
I have to admit I don't follow the details of the storms as precisely as you guys do, so have no opinion re landfall strengths of Katrina. I'm drawn more to observing and learning from unfolding weather events - be they snowstorms (my prime interest) or hurricanes (my new interest).

So no, I won't be around so much now that the season is winding down, though I will be checking in from time to time as I feel I've gotten to know (albeit at a distance) some great people through this blog. Of course, once things start up again I'll be drawn back like a moth to a light...
I agree..I was encouraged when they didn't adjust Dennis winds for its landfall in the post storm report already out. Operationally, they stated he was a 115-120 mph category three. It seemed conceivable that they might choose the lower number but they stuck with 120 mph. The HRD seems to be way too conservative and the NHC seems very hesitant to make major revisions as I have noticed encouragingly in their back and forth correspondence listed with the hurricane reanalysis project for all storms from 1851 through 1979 on the HRD website.
chaser you are the first person on here to ask me that. i have seen others ask people about that but never been aske myself. you might be surprised to know that i only closely follow tropical meterology (i actually started teaching myself tropical weather at age......9...lol.....because i was so fascinated with hurricanes). however, every type of weather interests me, so i do know a little about winter storms and severe weather (more on the latter than the former), but im sure nowhere near as much as you and snowboy and many others here do.
LOL snowboy.:)

I think I saw somewhere that you said you live in Canada?

If so, I can certainly understand your fascination with snowstorms. I have yet to ever experience a real blizzard since I have lived in Wilmington Nc all my life along the coast. Our biggest snowfall event was a very slow moving and unusual low pressure area that formed off the SE coast that brought us a ecord 15 inches between December 23 and 24th 1989.:)

Our second largest in recorded history is 12 inches followed by 6 inches. The city shuts down if the NWS calls for a dusting.:)
hey chaser, my first love was meteorology (I started subscribing to various journals at the ripe old age of 9!) but I had to work my way through school and there was no program in the university near where I live

I got into the groundwater field by just keeping on taking courses and jobs I enjoyed and dropping the ones I didn't. I love my work, but still have a big interest in the weather and climate (took lots of climatology courses, which were offered at my university)

btw atmos, it takes guts to post a 2006 outlook this far out and I really respect that, together with the knowledge and detailed analysis you provide
TampaSteve- When you observed the mackerel sky, did you think of an instinctual weather prediction? If so, what was it?

Or do you rely on science?

I got interested in observable weather the last time I went to Mexico (Ixtapa) and made an off-hand comments to my friends that the last time I'd seen a copper sky like (that) was just before Hurricane Alicia in Houston in '83. When we woke up the next AM in Ixtapa, there was the (unannounced) hurricane. Not as bad as seen with Wilma, but we were stranded at the airport with all the other tourists, then at a quake-damaged hotel with no power... back to Houston via AeroMexico via Mexico City.

Since we can't always count on access to satellites and Dr. Jeff... (and snowboy and TampaSteve) it's still important to know and understand the importance of what one observes first-hand. It can make the difference in survival- hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunami.

I bet we all know a little more than the other here and there regarding tropical meteorology for instance because we can't all have the exact same exdperiences..i.e. read same books, same schooling, same data we've researched etc.

That's why this community is so awesome..we are all getting acess to the others knowledge for free and without having to look for the information ourselves.:)

I never did ask your age if I may Atmos..wow! 9 years old....I was 14 when I became obseessed with hurricanes after my first experience.:)
hey atmos, there's something about starting at age 9 (like you and I both did) that gives you a bit of an instinct for this stuff - cool that you're focussed on tropical systems, I kind of figured that...
and, a big reason why i have followed tropical weather so closely is my history with hurricanes. as you might already know, i had a very intimate relationship (some might say it was incredibly timed lol) with hurricane gilbert. i was born one minute after the hurricane hunter plane measured gilbert's record pressure!
What was first weather experience, chaser?
so that makes me 17 years old and will be 18 on sep 13 2006. i was amazed and also a little disappointed lol when wilma broke gilbert's record.
Wow!...I feel like I got a majorly late start at the comparitively middle age of 14.:)

That's impressive Dallas....Did you experience any effects from Alicia or any others by chance?

Maybe a tornado experience or two? I have yet to see a tornado first hand although I've conducted field surveys after a F2 with the NWS one summer. Honestly, I am a little too apprehensive to chase that force of nature up close and personal as I do hurricanes. On the other hand, I have yet to experience the extreme force of a category four either.
hey dallastornado I agree it's excellent to have that instinctive response - I mystified people I was working with in the field in Germany when I said one day (without having had any reference to any weather forecast) "there's a snowstorm coming - I can smell it". They laughed and laughed, while I packed up and headed home and then we got the worst storm the area had seen in decades...
thats one thing i like as much as hurricanes. i would die to see a tornado first hand, and i would chase it in a heartbeat :). been through 9 hurricanes, many blizzards, incredible thunderstorms, hailstorms, but no tornadoes sighted. i hope to travel to the midwest this summer and chase them with an older friend of mine that is a professional storm chaser.
Thats incredible..Atmos..I can completely understand the relationship with Gilbert...still Wilma wasn't quite the size of Gilbert at peak intensity..that weas an impressive looking storm in my humble opinion. I remember tracking it through the Carribean and The NHC saying it can't strengthen anymore as it was approaching 150 mph only to set the all time record with the pressure of 888 mb at the time.

Hey Dallas, thanks so much for asking. My love for tropical meteorology was born so to speak with the approach of a borderline category three/ four hurricane named Diana on September 11th 1984. As it got to within 15 miles of the Cape Fear (extreme SE N.C. coast) she stalled and then began to drift to a distance 50 miles offshore of Wilmington Nc where I lived at the time as I do now(more in NE Wilmington closer to the coast then). During the next 36 hours or so, she made a very slow an erractic anticlockwise lopp off our coast while weakening as a result of upweling and made an eventual landfall in our area as a 96 mph category one hurricane. I was fascinated by all the power of the hurricane force winds around 85 mph and watching trees fall and the torrential rains, etc.

From that point on, I tracked every storm since.

I have over 150 VHS tapes of every storm that has developed since 1993 fronm when they were only tropical waves off Africa for example til they became named storms whether they made landfall or not. Thats how obssessed I became..lol
wow atmos - 9 hurricanes!!! i think i prefer observing them from a safe distance, based on how this year has gone for people.
Wow! Atmos..I can't believe how knowledable all of yu guys and girls are on here that are still in your teens.:)

I thought I was such an expert at your ages.:)
Chaser- my interest is in catastrophic weather, but it started with (drum roll) a 1957 tornado. I was two and a half years old, and vividly remember the sight and sound of the tornado as it approached our front porch from the southwest. My grandfather watched it like a chicken eyeing a snake and kept repeating "It's gonna hit us. Yep, it's gonna hit us." It lifted just short of our neighborhood and skipped over. Later, we drove around and looked at the damage in other neighborhoods. I can remember how tall I was at the time by how far above my head the crossbar on the screen door was.

When I was little I used to be frightened when the local weatherman predicted a wind shift. I imagined that ol' shifty wind skulking around outside, rattling the windowpanes, trying to get in. And "The Wizard of Oz" scared me spitless.

As storms go, Alicia wasn't too terrible; my daughter and I slept on a mattress in an interior hallway. It was exciting until the radio announcer warned of nearby.... TORNADOES! Then it was flying-monkeys-we-ain't-in-Kansas-Toto time. Beer helped. Beer and valium.

My offspring think I'm an old weather-fogy, but I notice I'm the one with the extra batteries, food supplies... and Valium.

Have you read Eric Larson's "Isaac's Storm" about the 1900 Hurricane?

wow chaser....that many vcr tapes lol. i am really glad i have all 9 i have been through (andrew, hugo, erin, fran, charley, frances, ivan, jeanne, wilma) plus katrina and rita, some on dvd and some on vcr tapes
that's pretty obsessed chaser, but an excellent obsession... and you work in the field don't you?
I've experienced roughly 25 hurricanes, severe thunderstorms with good size hail, been within a mile of a tornado yet couldn't see it but stil felt the outer fringes of quite a few..that was close enough for me.:)

The March superstorm of 1993 stands as my favorite non tropical storm event as it brought winds gusting over 100 mph to Wilmington and even the heaviest snowfall rate I've ever witnessed for a thirty minute period with winds still gusting over 50 mph...zero visibilty with lightning as well. I've experience numerous NorEasters. HOwever, Hurricanes are my foremost passion regarding weather in experience and knowledge.
25 hurricanes...wow thats a lot. however you do chase them (which i would love sincerely to do), and all mine were just sheer chance (quite unbelievable the storms that i have been through)
atmos, how on earth does one experience 9 hurricanes by pure chance - that's incredible, or do you live in the Keys?
Snowboy- what did the pending snow smell like to you?

In Dallas we seldom get any measurable snow, but Torvill & Dean can ice-dance regularly on my driveway. A couple of years ago I noted sundogs and rings in a sky clear except for very high wind-slashed cirrus. Also, there was an exceptional amount of visible aircraft contrail. A day or so later, I found a Zamboni parked out by my backdoor. :)

Maybe these are normal observations in Canada, but not in north Texas.

I'd like to see thunder snowstorms. Also northern lights. Don't want to see any more grapefruit sized hailstones, which do a number on one's roof.

Ever been in a bad duststorm/sandstorm?

If any of you want me to make a copy of any storms from 1994 through this past season off the Weather CHannel, CNN, Fox News, and other various media sources, I can get you one. I have to find time to do this for my friend David (KRWZ)who I promised to do this for.

yes....I have a forecasting degree from Penn State that I received from attending there a few years ago and I was finsishing my Atmospheric Sciences degree at N.C. State until I found out My wife was pregnant with out second child and I am taking time off for a good year until after He is born sometime in Mid April. I have worked at the NWS as a intern as well as a volunteer/intern at the NHC for a month or so in the Summer of 1994. The only active forecasting I do professional is as a forecaster part time (about 5 hours a week) at one of our local Tv weather offices. I have been doing that for about a year and a half now. So, officially, I've only been getting paid for it (lol) for less than 2 years. Most of my previous experience weas school, internships, and volunteering.:)
so excellent chaser to be finding work in the field you love.
thanks chaser, i will have to see which ones i am missing. dont have many weather channel ones, most are cnn unfortunately.

yeah snowboy its pretty hard for that to happen but yes i have been through 9 hurricanes (all of which have their own stories especially andrew and charley)
dallas a major pending snowstorm is sometimes accompanied by a unique very "fresh" and crisp smell (kind of like what you can smell during the downdrafts of intense thunderstorms, just chilled...) - though with snow you can more often tell from the clouds that it's coming
hi hurricanechaser how are you did you get my e mail
ok guys i am really tired, so i will get some rest. hopefully i will have my 2006 season outlook back up and running this weekend.

have a good night everyone :)

anyhow folks got to go I'm working on a report with tomorrow the deadline - so excellent to learn a bit more about what brings you each to the blog.. g'night
LOL atmos, great minds thinking alike...
Snowboy- I know I'd recognize snow sky if I saw it, but I can't place it offhand.

Look forward to visiting w/y'all later on. Stay warm.

Actually, Living here in Wilmington helped increase those totals and inspire me to chase them.

We've had these here in Wilmington...

Diana (1984)
Bertha (1996)
Fran (1996)major category three.:)
Bonnie (1998)
Dennis (1999)indirect hit(hurricane force gusts.)just offshore
Floyd (1999)
Isabel (2003)only got an indirect hit gusts to 65 mph
Charley (2004)second U.S. landfall as category one.
Ophelia (2005)

I guess that's nine that came to me from 1984 through 2005.:)

I barely remember tropical storm force winds from David in September 1979 as it came through Central N.C. as a weakening Tropical storm. (first memory I guess).

Tropical storm Dennis (1981)brought us tropical storm conditions as it pased by just offshore but I hav e no recollection of thisd storm whatsoever.

I am hoping they start coming back here again soon.:)

I should say I have received at least 39 mph winds from 25 to 30 hurricanes and Tropical storms.

I have chased...

Alex (2004) N.C. Outer Banks.
Charley (2004) Wrightsville Beach, N.C. (included above as well)
Dennis (2005)
Katrina (2005)
Ophelia (2005) N.C. Outer Banks (included in above listing)
Wilma (2005)

A more accurate total would be about 15 hurricanes altogether.

Have a good night Dallas...nice meeting you. :)
hurricanechaser you there hmmm how come has soon as i come on ever one is off too bed?
Sorry I missed you...Goodnight snowboy..nice seeeing you on as always.:)
Ooops..missed you too Atmos..thats what I get for such a long post. I hope you have a goodnight as well.:)
Hey there David..I was just logging off until I sw your posr..how are you?
hurricanechaser good did you get my e e mail i am this about long off too
I just now read it,.thank you foir asking about my little girl whose doing great and my little boy should be born in mid April or so. I hope to get that footage completeed by the beginning of January.:)
hurricanechaser you there?
hurricanechaser have you got a ch to start it yet or not yet and are the sea temp going back up or going down
well hurricanechaser we sould be going now i got to get some ZZZZ it is 11:32pm her and i got to get some ZZZZZZZZ i got to get up at 6:30am and if you ask why i will tell you on sat when i get a ch
sorry David..I had to use the phone..I can only stay another minute. I am trying to complete all my 2005 chase videos for sale so I have to focus foremost on that right now. However, I will get it done first chance i get thereafter, hopefully by he beginning of January.:)

The sea surface temperatures will continually slowly yet gradually decline throughtout the suceeding 3 to 4 months before they slowly but gradually rebound once again when the sun begins to reheat the waters with far more direct sunlight and for lnger durations during those months as well through the peak of hurricane season.

They will most likely be above normal once again for next years hurricane season. This is just one of many factors that come into play regarding the conditions that must exist for a tropical cyclone to develop.

In reality, the sea surface temperatures remain warm enough in some parts of the Carribean to allow for an offseason storm yet the rest of the atmospheric conditions especially intense upper level winds typically prevent it from occuring.
Sorry I missed saying goodnight to yoy a well David... sleep well I hope.:)
Goodnight to everyone out there or who may jopin the blog later. This way I won't mis teling the next person.:)lol
Please forgive all the typos...I'm typing as if I'm drunk..lol
Im sorry I missed your post Dallas.

yes, I read that excellent book called Issacs storm.

I collect hurricane books on specific hurricanes as wel.. My lastest is Hemmingways hurricane about the category five Labor Day huricane of 1935...another great read.:)
Good Morning everyone! Gamma is at work this morning that is the only reason I am up so early...
I see we are still looking good in the tropics so everyone have a great Saturday. Catch you later!
Good morning...hope everyone has a good day. Looks to be a nice one here in SC!
Good morning,all. 37F here in Dallas, and feels like April after the brief Arctic visit we had on Wednesday, when my Chihuahua did her "I'm from OAXACA not MANITOBA" speech in an attempt to avoid her evening walk.

How's weather all around?
Well I swan'. Hurricanes in December. Hurricanes in Europe. No more hurricanes in tall cold glasses, traveling around the French Quarter in New Orleans. Glaciers melting and sliding at 14km a year (over half a football length a day.) Proposed disruption to deep cold currents due to desalination secondary to freshwater melt in the Arctic sea.

And a new 37 mile by 13 feet ocean opening since September in the Eritrean desert is slated to become the world's newest ocean. In about a million years.

Me? I'd just settle for a year which plenty of soft, regular rain in the winter and spring, with nontropical rain in the summer and fall. Some snow of sufficient moisture and volume to make snow ice cream and various snow sculptures... preferably falling on a Friday night. Cloud to cloud lightning is okay, particular if vast and over a broad open plain like in West Texas or Eastern Colorado.

Unwelcome in 2006: storm surges, loss of life, tsunami, earthquakes, drought, plague, avian flu, fried modems, insurance coverage disputes.

Who those who weren't on last night, I'm looking for weather lore such as "red sky at morning/sailor take warning" or the nonpoetic knowledge that green clouds in boiling storm sky on a otherwise windless day means a tornado's coming.

What have y'all seen/heard.

I'm collecting weather folklore for a fiction piece I'm writing.

Good Morning Everyone,

This is my first post to this blog even though I have been Lurking for over a year. First, let me say how much I have enjoyed the posts by Dr. Masters and the members of this blog and I hope I can contribute in the future with information from my unique perspective.

Let me start by giving you a little history on myself. I am a 5th generation native of Florida and have lived here all of my close to 60 years (except for about 4 years when the Army allowed me to experience the weather in place like Oklahoma, Kansas, Germany, Australia, and Vietnam). I live in Jensen Beach (A.K.A Stuart, Fl) and have had the pleasure of experiencing 3 direct hits in less than 14 months. Hurricanes are nothing new to me and the current cycle we are in is very much like my early childhood, in fact my earliest childhood memory is of my parents trying to keep water from coming in under the door during the 1948 hurricane in Miami, I had just turned 2 at the time. I come up with my own forecasts that are a mixture of science and intuition. When I differ from the NHC I am a little more right than wrong. More importantly I will be commenting on the social, political, and economic impacts of these storms as it pertains to the people and their communities. I will also be commenting on storm preparation more in the area of long term prep and small points that get overlooked. Much of it has been said before but maybe if it is coming from some one who has Been There, Done That many times over some one will listen.

During the off season I will be setting up a weather station at my house complete with a weather cam. This should be interesting since my house sits on a ridge 50 ft. above sea level overlooking the old historic downtown Jensen Beach, the mile wide intercostal waterway and from roof level, out over Hutchinson Island and into the Atlantic.

Historically, this area gets a storm about every 8 years, we have had 3 in 14 months. Do I think we will get a storm next year? YES! (Just because you are paranoid, it doesnt mean they arent out to get you).
Welcome, JensenBeach. Nice to see someone else AARP-eligible.

I wrote quite a bit last night about the importance of being able to determine weather danger when out in the elements away from Dr. Jeff and Jim Cantore. Last December, those who were unaware picked up fishes from the seafloor... and died. The survivors recognized pending catastrophe from the phenomena, fled and survived.
Back to my scale:

The reason surge was not included is that it makes things far too complex - and it can't be measured until the number doesn't really matter, people are where they're gonna stay. Katrina's surge forecast was what, 20 ft? And they got like 40? I don't want to include things that aren't measureable. Also, comparisons with fish storms will be useful, and you can't add surge to that. Damage also cannot be taken into account, since the NOLA levee breakage could've easily been caused by a much weaker storm, and even at the last second any track change would make a difference to damage (if Katrina had gone 30 miles west of where she did, there wouldn't be a NOLA). Size is the reason pressure is included, see the original post. It took Camille down from an I10 to an I9 since she was small. I've forgotten landfall stats on Andrew...anyone?
Hello Jenson and Dallas,

This is Gamma and yes AARP!! (52), enjoyed your post, will be checking your blogs.

What a Year!
The 8:30am EDT hurricane hunter flight just found a central pressure of 938 mb and winds at 10,000 feet of 155 mph, which means Dennis has recovered from its eyewall replacement cycle, and is now intensifying again. The eye is a healthy 15 miles in diameter, and it is unlikely that another eyewall replacement cycle will happen before the storm hits Cuba tonight. Cuba will probably see Dennis at its peak--and this could very well mean Category 5.

well did it did the D storm ever made it to cat 5 storm with winds of 155 or 160mph and will they updat the D storm at the end to cat 5 like the E storm with had winds of 155mph
No KRWZ, Dennis was a strong cat. 4 with 150 MPH winds. The final report on it has already been written.
Winds: 165 MPH
Pressure: 922 MB
Surge: 17.6 feet at Burger King Headquarters
dallas: a mackerel sky may or my not indicate rain in the next 12-24 hours, depending on the surrounding atmospheric conditions. I appreciated it more for its beauty than for its predictive ability. I rely on scientific forecasts...satellite and radar and all that...but I'm a technology geek...
tornadoty what about the E storm did the do The final report on that one yet and if so will they keep it has a cat 4 or updat it to a cat 5?
Thnks, TampaSteve. Even anti-techies like me appreciate technology. I just appreciate older methods just as well since by KEEN new-tech skills don't always stand me in good stead. Just spent 15 minutes looking for the roller ball to the mouse. Note: a chihuahua WILL chase a roller ball, given sufficient opportunity.

The final report on Emily has not been written yet. It should be upgraded to a category 5.
tornadoty do you hav e link on The final report that the nhc is doing
End of Sahel drought may mean more U.S. hurricanes By Daniel Flynn
Fri Dec 9,11:16 AM ET
DAKAR (Reuters) - Signs a three-decade long drought in Africa's arid Sahel belt may be ending could herald an increase in hurricanes battering the eastern seaboard of the United States, a leading climatologist in West Africa said.
Hurricanes which pummel the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico each year often start their lives thousands of kilometres to the east as black storm clouds which cross the Sahel from the mountains of Chad or Sudan.
"Many of the hurricanes which reach Florida or the United States are formed here," said Amadou Gaye, head of Dakar University's Atmospheric Physics Laboratory.
"Squalls from the Sahel reach the African coast, where some of them become whirlwinds and perhaps 10 days later they become cyclones in the Atlantic," he told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.
The Sahel, a semi-desert zone which separates the Sahara from Africa's more tropical regions around the Equator, has been gripped by the worst drought in modern history since the 1970s.
But that appears to be changing. The heaviest rainfall in some thirty years in mainland Africa's most westerly country, Senegal, coincided with a record hurricane season this year -- including Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
"Since 2000, there has been an upward tendency in rainfall," Gaye said. "Statistically, when there is a very rainy year in the Sahel there are a lot of Atlantic hurricanes."
Lines of towering Cumulonimbus storm clouds reaching up to 12 kilometres (8 miles) into the atmosphere, which cross the Sahel from west to east, are the region's main source of rain.
"These lines of squalls are the motor of the Sahel's climate," said Gaye.
Largely populated by nomadic peoples such as the Berbers and Tuaregs, the Sahel was relatively green during the 1940s through to the 1960s but since then rainfall has plunged.
While data suggests that rainfall over the Sahel appears to be rising in recent years, it remains premature to herald the end of the drought, Gaye said.
"Overall, rainfall still remains lower than in the 1950s. But if the trend continues for five years, people will say the drought is over."
The prolonged drought in the Sahel -- which includes Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Chad -- has impoverished many farmers and forced people off the land.
Niger experienced severe food shortages this year, brought on by poor rains and locust swarms that underscored the region's vulnerability.
To revisit the issue of hurricane winds for a moment...Camille was a smaller storm than Katrina, Rita, or Wilma...it's an angular momentum issue as well. Smaller storms can reach higher wind velocities more easily...just look at Charley last year...as the eye contracted from about 15-20 miles across to about 5 miles across, the winds jumped from 105 mph to 150 mph in the space of just a few hours...Charley went from a garden-variety Cat 2 to a roof-ripping monster in the blink of an eye, thanks to the law of conservation of angular momentum.

Also, as the wind velocity increases it becomes more and more difficult for the storm to pump all that air. As the winds reach the enormous velocities found in the core of the most powerful Category 5 hurricanes, the law of diminishing returns applies...the amount of energy required to keep the air moving increases as the cube of the velocity, effectively putting an upper limit on the wind velocity.

It is interesting to note that in a hurricane, only 1/4 of 1% of the total energy of the storm is actually expressed as wind energy. The total energy in an average hurricane, as measured by the latent heat of condensation, is around 600 TRILLON watts per day! This is about 200 times the total world-wide electrical generating capacity...a truly astounding level of power!

A good web page regarding this can be found HERE.
tornadoty wrote:

"The final report on Emily has not been written yet. It should be upgraded to a category 5."

I agree...I tracked that storm, and at maximum intensity, it was a 160 mph Cat 5, IMHO...we'll see if the NHC agrees...
The recon found 160 MPH winds at the surface, but the pressure was rapidly rising at the time.
Well, dallastornado1957, you bring us such good news, re: the conditions in Africa.

I feel that 2006 will be more active that currently forecast by Dr. Gray (IMHO), maybe by as much as 50%. Ah, but there in lies the rub. Long range forecast have a lot of guess and by golly in them and if over stated they discredit all forecast. Then we get into the politics of forecasting. If Dr. Grays December forecast started off with:
we would all move to Iowa, sell NOLA back to the French, and sell any stock we held in insurance companies. Even when the info is very accurate you cant count on people reacting correctly. A case in point was my area in Florida with Wilma. Days before the storm the track was aimed at us and the NHC has gotten very good about the track, however, in the days before the storm there were no gas lines, the stores were busy but not swamped. After the storm many people I know were sitting with little supplies and their gas tanks on empty. Why??, They didnt take the storm seriously because it was A Back Door Storm. It was going to have to come across the state before it got to us and would lose most of its power. What many people failed to heed was that the warning that the storm was moving very fast and the landmass of Florida was going to be only a small speed bump to Wilma. In fact, some of our local measurements indicate it may have been getting stronger as it passed over the east coast.
Storm forecasting and storm education are two different things, people hear what they want to hear, you have to deal with the egos of elected officials, and the ratings hunt of the media This Storm is Going to Wipe us Out Details at 11 , which translates to We need to boost our ratings for the 11 oclock news. People need to look at all sources of info and the hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
completely agree windnwaves, couldnt agree more.
I don't think that politics has everything to do with it, but it's definetly a possibility. I would hope that someone as prestiged and trusted as Dr. Gray/Klotzbach (is that spelled right?) would be able to report accurately and without bias, but...well.
Atmos, did you get my mail?
sorry torn yes i did, are you there?
Hey Everybody...

Sorry for not being on here for a while but been working a lot... :-( Anyway I wish it would snow to get me in the mood for Christmas... :-)
I don't think that politics has everything to do with it either, but at long range they must be very conservative because they dont really know what will happen. Its like going to a doctor for an exam, you meet with the doctor later and he says, The lab work came back and there are a few things I am concerned about, we need to check you into the hospital for some further test. What the doctor may be thinking is This is a dead man walking, but he wont say that until he is sure. All he knows for sure is he is not sure so why panic the patient.

One must always remember that researcher are funded by someone, and whoever funds them can have some implied effect on what they say, how much they say, and how they say it.

I read the NHC discussions very closely and try to read between the lines. I feel they sometimes say what is correct to say but not really what they think, you can sometimes get a hint of what they are thinking.
yeah jensen i agree

HOWEVER, life is all about gambling. if the nhc were to really focus and put all their energies into retrieving data, comparaing climate changes and constantly watching the long range outlooks for sea surface temps, upper level winds and weather patterns, then they would actually be more likely to be right if they were to completely gamble on 1 or 2 forecasts. for example, they usually state something like this in their first long range outlook: "at this point, we think that the activity in the 2006 hurricane season will be above average, with approximately 15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes". instead, why not take a little more time (say January or February) to look at the trends and analyze next year's weather patterns, and then come up with a specific forecast that they stick to until the season begins. i think they will improve their accuracy if they make 1 bold, specific prediction instead of being conservative and stating the season will be below or above average with a 3-4 storm "cone of uncertainty" in their numerical predictions (15 named storms and 9 hurricanes instead of 13-17 named storms and 8-11 hurricanes). then again, i am a gambling man in many ways so i am naturally inclined to think that! but i think it would work more times than not and they migth actually hit the numbers perfectly in some seasons giving them something to brag about lol.
I am here now.
and like jensen says, they should gamble more on the actual storm forecasts in the discussions and public advisories. for example, in the public advisories, they usually say something like this when a storm is intensifying and will continue to for a while (5-6 days): "satellite data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts. some strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, and XXXX could become a hurricane by tomorrow morning." lets face it, i think most can agree with me that this is a very conservative statement. the nhc are composed of very intelligent people with a lot of great resources and technology. why not be bold and make some actual "predictions"? like this for example: "satellite data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts. XXXX will continue to strengthening in the next 4-5 days, becoming a hurricane some time tomorrow, and reaching major hurricane intensity in 3-4 days." and lets not confine it to intensity either. maybe they could be more specific on the track. enahncing the previoyus statement, you get something like this: "satellite data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts. XXXX will continue to strengthen in the next 4-5 days as it moves wnw through the central caribbean, becoming a hurricane some time tomorrow. After that, XXXX will begin to turn nw-ward, reaching major hurricane intensity in 3-4 days while approaching the cayman islands and western cuba."

now, a lot of meterological people will criticize me because what i have stated is far too bold and they will tell me that tropical weather is an inexact science. however, i think the nhc could use that as an advantage. lets say the storm i just mentioned intensifies only a little to cat 1 status over 5 days, and also makes a northern turn earlier and strikes eastern cuba and the bahamas instead of the cayman islands and western cuba. the people in those areas will be a little upset that the nhc was wrong with their prediction, but really all the nhc have to do is to add to my statement and say that the areas that XXXX actually hit should monitor the progress of XXXX also (like they do already). for example, if the nhc make a prediction that XXXX will move into eastern florida and then strike the pandandle of florida, they should add at the end of the statement: "everyone in the keys, south florida, north florida, south carolina, and all those on the MS and AL coast should also carefully monitor the progress of XXXX". then, those people shoudln't have been caught unprepared, and if they are still upset, the nhc can just say "remember, tropical weather forecasting is an inexact science. no one can predict what a storm will do, so we just made our best educated guess and unfortunately was incorrect"

the only place where you can find such specific predictions by the nhc is in the discussions. 90% of people who look at the public advisores never look at the discussion because it is almost purely meteorological explanations. ironically and confusingly, this is where they state their exact intensity and track predictions like the forecast intensities and lat and long coordinates. the public won't be able to find this, so the nhc should put my statements in their public advisories because the public want to know where and how strong this storm is going to be in 3,4,5,7,10 days in the future. then in the discussions, the nhc could explain to the weather orientated people why exactly they make that prediction, and state other meterological possibilities as well with their corresponding explanations.

this is just my humble opinion, but i think some could agree with me on this one. once again i will say that i am a very bold, gambling person so i have no objection to people trashing this idea lol!!!
I agree, generally, with the way they do things now. But I'm sorry, when you have a T.D. forming over the Windwards in September, it is NOT going to stay a T.S. all the way through the Caribbean! They have TERRIBLE initial intensity forecasts.
Here comes Zeta! You can see the beginnings of the low all the models have been forecasting towards the top of this IR loop:

yeah colby i still respect the nhc because they have such a tough job anyway, but i have to admit i would like to see them go out on a limb sometimes. by the way, do you know who BWC is on the amateur hurricane center? someone gave me a link to his weather site and it is incredible.
wow colby, yeah i can see it. dunno if it will make it to tropical status though. would have to acquire tropical characterisitics rather quickly before shear rips it apart
Hi Atmos,

I agree, later would be more accurate but we live in a world of instant gratification and we want it all now. IMHO, I dont think we can get a real picture until March, but we want it now so we will invent it. At this time I look a lot at historic storm patterns in Florida. Our current pattern seems to line up with the late 1940's except it has shifted 120 miles north. If this is true then the northern east coast of Florida (Daytona to Jacksonville) should get a storm next year approaching from the southeast most likely in late September. Hows that for a wild long range forecast, but it is as valid as anything out there and you have it now! (Details at 11)

BTW: I see we share the same Birthday, separated of course by 42 years.

BTW: Is anyone really surprised that we may get Zeta? I knew 2005 had one more storm left in her.
Could the possibility of lawsuits against the NHC be a factor in the conservatism of the NHC's forecasts and predictions?

It is almost impossible to sue the Federal Government, if it werent, most of our Bozos in Washington would spend most of their time in court. Hmm... Maybe thats not such a bad idea.
I agree with Colby. Zeta can also be seen here and here. This is a large system, and the center appears to be about 27 N 37 W.
Hello, anyone here? Over.
153. dcw
Wow, cool to watch. It's rare we see something coming enough to see the very first moments of cyclogenesis. Check out the curvature incrasing along the front.
Re Jeff's topic number 1: Bermuda High steering a factor? Look at the pattern of all the 2005 storms. Most bad ones blossomed south of Jamaica?
155. dcw
"Most bad ones blossomed south of Jamacia"


Dennis - Cat 4 north of Jamacia and again in the Gulf.
Katrina - Cat 5 in gulf.
Rita - Cat 5 in gulf.
Emily - significantly east of Jamacia
Wilma - a TS/Cat 1 until due west of Jamacia.
Maria - A Major in the open atlantic.

The real evil spot this year was the Gulf Loop. Four storms passed through the southeast gulf. Before and after:

Dennis - Cat 1 -> Cat 4
Katrina - Cat 1 -> Cat 5
Rita - Cat 1 -> Cat 5
Wilma - Cat 2 -> Cat 3 (maybe 4)
Thanks, dcw, aka Colby. Knew you could straighten me out (boy am I embarassed). So what made the Gulf Loop so tough this year, any theories?
Good evening, Palmettobug, JensenBeach, Atmos.

As a dotted line from weather folklore to NHC predictions for 2006... y'all know how you're supposed to tell if a hard winter's coming by how fast and how high the geese fly in the fall? Here's one for you:

While depresssingly self-employed for a while this year, I decided that if I couldn't find another corporate job I might have to go back to being an adjuster. :(

Texas requires adjusters to have 40 hours of classroom training for a license. Casualty insurance claims management (my field) is yoked to property insurance (yuk.) I'd let my license go about 15 years ago, thinking "As God is my witness, I'll never adjust claims again!" No, wait. That's Scarlett O'Hara.....

Anyway, I signed up for an October class and expected to see about 10-15 people there to get licensed to adjust liability claims. Astonishingly, about 80 people showed up, and almost all of them were there to get property licensure in order to go chase storm claims. (Texas licensure is recognized by most other states.) What was astonishing was the number of very grown-up folks who'd ditched existing careers: roofer, auto sales manager, mortician.

Folks, if roofers and undertakers are giving up homes and jobs to chase storm claims, I'm betting on a busy 2006.

Zeta is on the way indeed Colby. Forming pretty far south, but relatively close to the African coast. Zeta going to get pulled west or end relatively shortly. Any takes?
I think I can hurigo.

Blame it on Dennis and Emily. They formed near the beginning of the hurricane season, when the water in the southeastern Caribbean was warmer than the northwestern. The two hurricanes transfered some of the heat energy from the southeastern Caribbean into the northwestern, and therefore, the Gulf Loop Current became much warmer than average. Add a hot summer that would have ratcheted the temps a notch higher alone, and that made the Gulf Loop current quite abnormally warm, allowing for enough energy to strengthen Katrina, Rita, and Wilma to a lesser degree.
Thanks, TY. That is interesting. Have you looked for patterns that were similar in previous years?

Here's the water vapor loop on the system. Since it updates every 6 hours, it's choppy.
There has been nothing like this to my knowledge. Look at 1950 though, the year that holds the record for major hurricanes.
NHC places the remnant of Epsilon at 29N32W, which is near a now visible eye at 28N 28W. Perhaps this is what will become Zeta (or shall we say, "Son of Epsilon"?)
164. iyou
dallas - Here's a weather rhyme for your collection, from the book 'White Hurricane' by David G. Brown, which is about the Great Lakes storm of 1913 - 'When halos ring the moon or sun...Rain is coming on the run'.
Thanks again, TY. I wish there was a way to superimpose 1950 and 2005. Particularly interested to see if we take 1950 and shift it all left. And then look at 1951 for clue for 2006?
Thanks, iyou. I popped it over to my blog.

Where are you writing from? (Where y'all at?)

167. iyou
I'm in Toronto. I'm not very far into the book, so if I come across anything of interest, I'll e-mail you!
You know it has been a bad year......

When you set your browsers home page to the National Hurricane Centers Web Site.
When you program FEMAs phone number in your speed dial.
When you search for the book 101 Ways To Fix M.R.E.s
When you want to paint your house the same shade of blue as your roof.
When you think Early American Plywood is a new decorating trend.
When you want to take a crash course in generator repair.
When you dont care how much gas cost as long as you can get it
When you think a Big Mac and fries is a gourmet meal.
When you start thinking hot beer taste good.
When you think all grocery clerks wear fatigues and are members of the National Guard.
When your cell phone bill looks like a mortgage payment.
When you think your swimming pool looks good as a Lilly pond.
When the neighbors you never talked to are now your best friends.
When you are happy to get 3 channels on 6" TV.
When you come to a full stop at every intersection.
yeah jensen lol. i am guilty of at least 7 of those, and im not even in south florida or louisiana!
Jensen, that was too funny.
by the way friends. I am working on my blog. Hurigo was nice enough to let me know you were all on Jeff's blog tonight so I wanted to check in.
(Sorry Jeff, after all of this time I have always referred to you as Dr. Masters but I think after what we have been through together this year I can be on first name basis with you! lOL)

Will check back in again shortly. Me and one of the administrative people are tight tonight; he is helping me with my blog!!!
good to see you gamma
Atmos I'm here.
hey torn been trying to find you all day. sorry i was not there each time you were lol, had a very busy day studying for mid-term exams.

anyway, if you still need those storms you didnt get to done for you then i will be happy to do them for you. i am very impressed by your storm scale system, it is extremely creative. hats off to you on that!
Hi to you Atmos...Gamma's working on her blog and pics. will check back in later to see what is going on here!
Thanks, I could always use the help. If you want to do those storms, go ahead and do them and then put them in my mailbox. Thanks!
hey sup
well have to go now on such a short notice
how are you boldman
hey ever one what up with the Z storm storm can not stay long i am going to bed around 9:00pm tonigh
hey KRWZ
hey KRWZ, how's it going? (zeta) is starting to take shape and has a possibility of acquiring tropical characteristics over the next couple of days.
hey atmosweather what up when will we have the Z storm so that way i can say we have see it all this year from A to Z and this will be the frist ever Z storm
hello all ok im back now doing great atmos have not seen you on for a while hows it goign david
atmos is that true about zeta
so where will Zeta be going will it be a hurricane will it make land fall will it be come a cat 4 or cat 5 or what will it do?
it was 50:50 as to whether we would see it form earlier today but now i say 70:30 for formation. it is really taking shape and gradually developing a core.
oh wow this is amazing were is it at in the atlantic
hey theboldman i am doing good where did all of you bolg go?
infrared loop, you can see it in the early stages of cyclogenesis in the top left corner
well david thats a long story its only gone temporaraly though ill take a look at that atmos
were the heck is that lol
northeast of the azores, near where epsilon died (in fact the remnants of epsilon have primarily contributed to this new extratropical low). long way out lol!
Goodnight, all.
have a good night dallas
wow yes a long way out well lets hope it does somethig fun goodnight whoever you are
yes now i can say we have see it on from 2 cat 4 in july with the D storm at 150mph winds and the E storm with 155mph two 930mb storms and that would be D and E storm

3 or 4 cat 5 hurricane and that would be K storm with winds of 175mph 902 mb R storm 897mb 175mph winds W storm 882 mb 175 my be up date to 185 mph and E storm 929 mb winds 160mph

the O storm was a slow one and it play a round with the E cast for a few days then mad landfall

frist ever W storm with winds of 175 and a all time low of 882 mb

the C storm may be updat to a hurricane with winds of 75 mph my be will see

now the very frst Z storm ever on big will it get oh no but this one will be fun to to see and may or may not see this next year so now we can play with the Z storm and see where it go
This is very cool to watch - I've never seen storms like this from the very beginning.

That's no eye, it's just a random spot without convection. It's not Zeta yet, nor very strong (999mb, per the NHC). But it is developing convection, and the pressure is down 7mb today...so stay tuned.


*plays Fox News Alert sound* Investigators at the blog of a Dr. Jeff Masters have raised allegations that the Atlantic Ocean has again passed it's legal limits. Forecaster Colby said in a statement earlier today "The [tropical] storm forecast by all the models is beginning to take shape", and when questioned said that there was "clear evidence" of cyclogensis. Stay tuned to the Blog News Network for further information on this devloping storm...err story.
i know colby this is some loop im looking at. how long before we see a name do you think?
Actually it's not the first ever 'Z' storm. The Eastern Pacific name list actually DOES have U, Y and Z on their list, and their most active season of 24 storms used their entire list.
sup dcw bi guys have to go now
Atmos, at the moment we have a cold-core low with very little convection associated with a frontal system. A TS from me? Three days. The NHC? Five, if at all.
have a good night boldman

and dont forget tropical cyclone zoe that struck australia in 2002
yes frist ever Z storm frist ever Z storm yesfrist ever Z storm lol wow wow wow what a year now i can say we have see it all from A to Z wow what a year ok sorry i have say it but wow ok i am off to bed now se you all and have a good night ever one
i am saying 70:30 for development into zeta, in about 3-4 days
have a good night KRWZ
If you've registered on my site, I've updated my tropical weather discussion. http://s91794711.onlinehome.us/ncw/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=240#240
ForecasterColby when they get doen uesing on from A to Z in the E where do they ues up next?
"in the E"? Not sure what you meant. There is nothing in place if they run out of Greek...but hopefully, we will never have to find out.
A 997 mb storm low is over the E Atlantic near 33n30w. is this what could be come the Z storm?
ForecasterColby in the EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC when they get done with A to Z what do they ues up next
211. TBA
I been away a day and missed the discussion on Hurricane maximun wind speed.

Yes with physics, 190 Mph seems to be the max that a Hurricane can get up to these days.

But the earth oceans have been warmer in the past and will be warmer in the future. Who know's, the ocean temperature could be 36-37 degrees in a few hundred years. If this is ever the case, then the physics will allow hurricanes over 200 mph.

Regarding global warming. I think what the US and China is saying, is that it is already to late, and we are basically going to have to live with it, so we are not going to do anything to effect our economic output.

Over the long run, the earth has gone thru phases from being a cooker to snowball earth, with or without mans help.

Its just this time, we are helping the process along.
Yeah, KRWZ, that's the one. It's got a thin ring of green convection in the GOES loop, but I'm not sure if that's anything meaningful or just pieces torn off the front it formed from.
so if this has a 997 mb or lower that would mean it has may be 40 to 50 mph winds so how could it is not a ts yet and how soon could it be come a ts?
Yes, there is actually a global warming trend, but it started long before the industrial revolution. I doubt we can really affect the long-term climate more than, say, natural fluctuations in the solar output.

BTW, if an average hurricane uses 600 TRILLION watts of power PER DAY, then imagine how much heat energy was sucked out of the tropics by all the hurricanes and tropical storms this season...thassa lotta powah!!!
ok her is what i think they will retire this yer

Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Emily
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Rita
Hurricane Stan
Hurricane Wilma

now her is what they may or may not retire this year

Hurricane Beta
Hurricane Epsilon
Hurricane Vince
Hurricane Ophelia
Tropical Storm Cindy or hurricane cindy
Tropical Storm Delta or hurricane delta

what dos any one think ? and what is the most to be retire in one year ?

hey david hows it going
i dont think they will retire the greek named ones they did not do anything distructive to the us
but ya bever know(:
hey theboldman where did your blog go?
Well it isn't the impact on the US but anywhere in General
Like what Stan, Wilma and Emily did to Mexico and others. As to the Greek names I've heard that if next year goes to Alpha it would be "Alpha 2006"
Also if Beta is retired then it would go "Alpha 2006" "Gamma 2006" (just simply skipping it)
i still dont think they will be retired though if you think about it but ya nevere knows
like i said before long story but i might bring it up oday so quit asking me lol
dos the Western Pacific Ocean ever get there names retired if so can i have a link to it?
i domnt know lol i would if i could
The WPAC does retire their names, the list is on the NHC site.

Zeta-to-be organized at an incredible rate last night, it could be Zeta within 36 hours.
If Zeta is named, will it be included in this season's official hurricane statistics or will it be in a separate category of "off season" storms?
It will be part of the 2005 season.
So it will be the 27th named storm? Does this mean the season doesn't really end until next June 1st when the next one starts?

The most names to be retired in a year is four, which has happened three times, in 1955, 1995, and 2004.

The NHC page on retired names can be found HERE.
snowski, the 2005 season stats officially end on februrary 28th, the middle day between the end of the 2005 season (november 30) and the beginning of the 2006 season (june 1)

The 2005 list is only used through December 31st. Any named storms that form in 2006 will be given names from the 2006 list, starting with Alberto.
I didn't know that. This means there's still a chance to break even more records, like the number of major hurricanes and the number of hurricane-days in a season.

By the way, the Naval Met office forecasts "Zeta" to move west and strengthen.
atmosweather: where did you hear about the February 28th date? NHC goes by calendar year from everything I've read over the years.
OK, here is what NHC says about names:

In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on. If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season's list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season's list of names.

Therefore, the 2006 hurricane season really begins on January 1, 2006. Any storms forming in this calenday year will be given names from the 2006 list. So Zeta likely will be the last greek letter used this season...or next to last, who knows.
No, there is a 3 month leeway for the list of names from the beginning of the season, so we stop using 2005 names on February 28.
tampasteve, i meant statistics anyway. feb 28th is the middle day and i believe stats and names from the 2005 season stop on that day
torn, you've got mail :)
Thank you son much atmos! You saved a good bit of work! :)
I stand corrected.
Should say thank you SO much Atmos!
you are very welcome torn

i must say that you have obviously taken a lot of time to devise your scale. i for one think that it is a great effort, one that requires a lot of knowledge. the fact is that there will never be a perfect system since as chaser says there will be too many variables into the potential and actual effects and intensity of a storm. however, i am impressed that you have taken so much time to try and make up your own. i could not do any better and i dont think anyone else coudl either. no scale will get it right all of the time, even the SSHS.

For everyone else here,

I am actually starting (among so many other things such as carefully analyzing weather patterns for next year's season, making my 2006 hurricane season outlooks with discussions, making my own website and creating storm reports for this season) my own attempt at a detailed tropical cyclone scale to be ready for 2006. it will take months to complete but i will tell you more if you come to my blog starting tomorrow (not today since i am in the process of re-writing my 2006 atlantic hurricane season outlook 1).

atmosweather wrote:

"tampasteve, i meant statistics anyway. feb 28th is the middle day and i believe stats and names from the 2005 season stop on that day"

Upon what evidence do you base that belief? Just curious. I have never read anything about February 28th being a significant date for NHC statistics or recordkeeping. Everything I have read points to the end of the calendar year being the cutoff.
From the NHC:

In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on. If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season's list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season's list of names.
I've updated my blog.

i think i have read or heard somewhere that storms before the mid point of the off-season count towards the previous season's STATISTICS, but are named by the next year's list. Strange but true i think. however im sure most of you know much more about names and stats than me because even in 9 years of teaching myself tropical meteorology i have never bothered to learn about naming systems and rules
Got my new blog up ...stop by and check in!
I think the hurricane expert named "Landsea" uses the Feb 28 cutoff for his/her stats. I don't think the NHC uses it at all.
Looks like Zeta is around the corner. Great outflow and definite rotation. Check out this link to a nice satellite picture of her.


any one see that new movie narnia yet? i have i saw it 2 time now and it is very good movie
KRWZ, does the movie correspond well with the book? Most times, the book and the movie are poles apart.
Here's a dynamite quote.

"Jim Cantore pushes forecasting to the next level. Much as Michael Jordan changed basketball, Jim Cantore has forever altered the field of weather forecasting."
Palmetto, take a look at www.imdb.com
palmettobug53 i do not no

any one see hurricanechaser today?
hurricanechaser you got e mail
lol any one there
hey tornadoty did you see narnia yet
I didn't like the books, I don't want to see the movie.

Read this:


They mention the possible Zeta.
hey torn

yeah they mention it but they dont seem very excited by its chances really
what about you atmosweather?
atmos: I doubt they want to be excited by the chances, perhaps instead trying to wish possible-Zeta away with optimism.
be back in a few
Wasn't Epsilon proof that optimism is useless?

Theres the "2" radar image from Wilma's landfall.
You didn't like the Narnia books, Torn? I loved em.
i liked the books a lot, but havent seen the movie.
Colby: That "2" image in Wilma is pretty neat...but wasn't Wilma actually a Cat 3 (125 mph) at that point???
This low is now an I1 on my scale. For those of you on my site, I posted my scale in an easily readable format in the conventions thread.

Yeah. Maybe it was referring to itself being the second major hurricane to hit the area in two years?
Hey Colby...cool site...hadn't really checked it out before...thanks!

I numberWind I numberPressure I numberSS scale equiv.030-44999-1010Tropical Depression145-59987-998Tropical Storm260-74975-986Tropical Storm375-89963-974Category 1490-104951-962Category 1-25105-119939-950Category 26120-134927-938Category 37135-149915-926Category 48150-164903-914Category 4-59165-179891-902Category 510>179<891Category 5
Crap, I guess table tags don't work around here :(

Here's an updated loop of our low.
Colby: Yeah...it's fortunate for us that Mexico "took one for the team". If Wilma had shot the gap between Mexico and Cuba and stayed over that super-warm loop current instead of making landfall in the Yucatan, we could have been looking at a Cat 4 or even Cat 5 barreling into the Florida Gulf Coast. That's not a pleasant thought.
The one in the area of 34N 27W, right???
Someone on Accuweather mentioned that the 2 in Wilma might have been the local news channel 2's creative form of advertising, or that it might be a sign from the Soviet-era weather-controlling Japanese mafia machine.
atmosweather go see the movie you may like ot more then the book
Yes. Notice deeper convection firing independantly from the front.
LOL torn

i actually have that channel and was watching it when i saw the "2". actually looked pretty real because it developed not just appeared
Tornado, that image is not doctored in any way. It was also visible in the NEXRAD here at wunderwx and the NHC's too.
I'm glad somebody else likes Intellicast.com...
In fact, hit the Wilma page here at wunderground under the 2005 map, if you look at the landfall radar loop you can see it.
I don't use it, Snowski. Just saw that on another weather forum and it seemed a good image.
atmosweather go see the movie you may like the movie more then you do the book
Good Evening, still watching Survivor but I like to check in here from time to time to see what is happening.
Do you really think we have another storm out there?
I don't suppose there's any way to shift the GOES floater so it's over the low at 32N 29W?
if i can i will krwz

Here's another cool picture.
ok atmosweather you will find that the movie is very good i saw it 2 time now and may see it two more time that is how the movie is
twice? wow, must be good then. i'll see if i can see it lol
atmosweather yes i saw it 2 time and may see it 2 or 3 more time

Here's an updated loop of our low.
Whoops..I was trying to paste this loop
990mb now that meanthis Z storm or what would be come the Z storm would have 60 to 70 mph winds with a 990mb low or the mb may have got lower then it was be for like 987mb or 985mb what dos any one think?
and here it is from the weather channel

img src=" http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/atl_oce_sat_720x486/4L.jpg?1134363167140>
If anyone's interested in seeing the cut-off low south of the Azores then here's a good link.

Cut-off Low (Zeta)

I don't think they'll move the floater until, at the earliest, the NRL come out with an Invest for the low.

This low has a reaonable chance of becoming Zeta in the next 2 or 3 days, so you should take the opportunity of seeing a system that is about to go tropical, another one like Epsilon.

I'm running a bit of a competition on my site to predict when we get Hurricane Zeta, where it will appear and where it will make landfall, if at all. Just for fun, no prizes unfortunately.

There's also a wind-up discussion about Epsilon with a chance to pass comment.

Dave Foster's Hurricane Pages

thx dave

krwz, this will be hybrid system even if it becomes tropical storm zeta, and hybrid systems usually have lower pressures than fully tropical systems, so the winds wont be that high if they name it
Oops, sorry, I see that forecasterColby has already put up the map.
sorry guys i havent posted pics in ages, should be like this

img src="http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/atl_oce_sat_720x486/4L.jpg?1134363167140>
now i know i need sleep

[img src="imageurl"] with instead of [ and ]
303. code1
And Katrina just keeps on giving/taking....The below is a post from Hills blog that I made and wanted everyone here to see as well. Gonna donate to Target if possible in WU's name. I know we are all storm tired and maxed out on giving to victims, but $15-$20 for a child to have pajamas is not too much to ask....

Posted By: code1 at 9:06 AM CST on December 12, 2005.
Wanted to post this:

Just saw a little boy, around 10-12 years old on GMA. Missed the entire clip, but he only asked for a pair of pajamas for Christmas!! Heart broken here. On a good note, the clip said Target had a registry, you can find the site through GMA to donate for these unfortunate children. Most of them Katrina victims. Imagine a child that age just asking for pajamas.....