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The tornado season of 2008: climate change to blame? And, tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:07 PM GMT on May 27, 2008

Residents of Parkersburg, Iowa continue to assess damage and clean up from the tornado that killed six people on Sunday. The tornado was rated EF-5, the highest possible rating for a tornado. An EF-3 tornado also hit Hugo, Minnesota on Sunday, killing one person. Only five new tornado reports occurred yesterday, and severe weather is expected to remain relatively low for the next two days. A new storm system is expected to bring an enhanced chance of severe weather to the upper Midwest beginning Thursday. The deaths Sunday push this year's tornado death toll to 110. This makes 2008 the 12th deadliest tornado season since 1950, and the deadliest since 1998, when 130 deaths were recorded. Assuming that the Parkersburg, Iowa tornado was an EF-4 or EF-5, there have been nine violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes this year. This is the most since 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. The total (preliminary) number of tornadoes so far this year is 1191. I doubt that we will break the all time record of 1817 tornadoes in a year, set in 2004, but 2008 may vault into second place if we can top 1998's 1424 tornadoes. Could this year's tornadoes be a sign of climate change?


Figure 1. Tornadoes deaths in the U.S. by year since 1950. Year 2008 deaths are as of May 26.

Well, let's be clear that human-caused climate change is occurring, and will significantly affect nearly all aspects of weather and climate in the decades to come. However, many of these changes will be so small or gradual that they will not become detectable until many decades hence, since there is a large natural variability in weather. As I noted in my February blog, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?, there is new research that predicts that we may see an increase in the severe thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes by the end of the century. However, the computer modeling efforts that predict this rise in severe weather are just beginning, and much more research remains to be done before we can believe these preliminary results.

Will we be able to detect changes in tornado frequency if they occur?
We won't be able to detect changes in tornado frequency due to climate change, unless there is a very large change. We need a technology that can detect all tornadoes, all the time in order to be able to evaluate changes in tornado frequency. Doppler radar can only "see" perhaps 50% of all tornadoes, and many of those it detects never touch down. Thus, we rely on human observers to spot tornadoes, or look for buildings that got in the way of a tornado, using the damage pattern to identify a tornado. If there are no humans around to see a tornado, and if a tornado does not encounter any structures, it will go unrecorded. As the population increases and more buildings are erected, tornado reports will increase. This factor alone can account for the observed increase in total tornadoes since 1950 (Figure 2).

Is there evidence that strong and violent tornadoes are increasing?
Strong tornadoes (EF2 and EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale) and violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5, or F4 and F5 on the pre-2007 Fujita Scale), which make up less than 25% of all tornadoes, cause a large fraction of the tornado deaths. These storms are less likely to go uncounted, since they tend to cause significant damage along a long track. Thus, the climatology of strong and violent tornadoes may offer a clue as to how climate change may be affecting severe weather. Unfortunately, we cannot measure the wind speeds of a tornado directly, except in very rare cases when researchers happen to be present with sophisticated research equipment. Tornadoes are categorized using the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which is based on damage. So, if a strong or violent tornado happens to sweep through empty fields and never destroy any structures, it will not get a rating. Thus, if the number of violent tornadoes has actually remained constant over the years, we should expect to see some increase in these storms over the decades, since more buildings have been erected in the paths of tornadoes.

However, if we look at the statistics of strong and violent U.S. tornadoes since 1950 (Figure 2), there does not appear to be any increase in the number of these storms. In fact, there appears to be a decrease, although the quality of the data base is probably not good enough to say this with confidence. It appears likely that climate change has not caused an increase in the strongest tornadoes in recent decades. I believe we can blame 2008's nasty tornado season on an unusually far south loop that the jet stream has taken this year over the U.S., thanks to natural variability in the weather.


Figure 2. Total, strong and violent tornadoes in the U.S. by year since 1950. The year 2008 (not pictured) has had 128 strong or violent tornadoes as of May 26, according to Wikipedia.

Possible development in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week
A weak low pressure area (Invest 90E) has developed in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, near 10N 90W. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week, according to the UKMET model. Other models, such as the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF, foresee that this area of disturbed weather will not have time to develop before moving northwards over Central America by the end of the week, bringing heavy rains to the region. Once over land, this low might move over the waters of the Western Caribbean and allow a tropical depression to form, as predicted by the GFS model. The NOGAPS model, in contrast, predicts that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean south of Cuba, with no development in the Eastern Pacific. Given the persistence of these computer models over the past week in developing something in the region, I'd put the odds of a tropical depression forming within 7 days at about 40% in the Eastern Pacific, and at 20% in the Western Caribbean. There is a lot of wind shear predicted to prevail near or over the Western Caribbean late this week and early next week, reducing the odds that any such development could hold together long enough to affect the U.S. Regardless, residents of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Belize, and southern Mexico can expect heavy rains and possible flash flooding late this week from this system.


Figure 3. Area of disturbed weather over the Eastern Pacific that is forecast by some models to develop into a tropical depression. The NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook is a good tool to track this disturbance.

I'll have an update by Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters
New Hartford
New Hartford
Missing House, if found call Dennis and Carla
New Hartford
New Hartford
car pile up
Supercell near Pratt, Kansas
Supercell near Pratt, Kansas
Nice structure on upercell east of Pratt, Kansas. Photo copyright Mike Theiss.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cowboy! Nice Avatar!
90E looks impressive

Yeah, 456, I looked at that last twave a bit ago, riding quite high.
Quick update on my blog here. My thoughts on what's happening in the tropics is there. Thanks!
BFox, no, your avatar is just devine! ; P
Indeed 456, we'll likely have EPAC TD-1 tomorrow morning.
Good night!
Divine? maybe? LOL

We could use the rain from a system, but I sure hate to see the season start so soon... Hopefully, shear will steer it towards FL and keep it a "rainmaker".
I dont think it shud make a difference which side it forms on if it has the potential to affect our frends over at Central America.
W456
Its going to be interesting to see how it goes.

Great info here tonight!

Thanks to all!

Peace!
I noted in my blog entry eariler that I thought it had a shot to become a tropical depression. But I didn't expect THIS much of an organization spurt tonight. Geez.
the awakening
1016. RyanFSU
00Z HWRF is much less impressive than the 18Z run, with slow development to a strong tropical storm/marginal hurricane just prior to landfall -- remaining on the Eastern Pacific side. Rest of the forecast will take another hour or so to finish integrating on the Weather Bureau's supercomputer...


Yep, Keeper - comin' alive!
Wow...

I am speechless. It is morphing...
Morning all :~)

Or anyone that is still up! What's the latest?
Hey, SJ and g'morning! Dayum tropics are about to explode and you've not even been around!!! It's all your fault! Dadgummit!
another witness for the awakening
I am confused, what is about to explode? 90e or this...



!~)
I'm pickin' on the "explode" part; but, "yes" good-eye. That twave may be just what cranks it up!
90e
your shot that just startin to pop not sure what it is its movin westward a little
Looks like a TUTT or something to the left of my image. That thing is smack dab in the middle of the Atl.
yep lets watch an see
NOGAPS almost done.
SJ, yeah, it's out and a lil high, huh? If the TUTT leaves it behind then it could be something. 90E's been the hullaballou today!
I see there was some ruckus and deleted posts mlc....lol

Bling Bling on Mars!

1031. 7544
hi carb. is just about to do its thing and whats around 60w 25n hmmmm could this one be first is the race on
Just looked at the latest model runs and a lot of them appear to be forecasting a weaker system. Still, as was stated numerous times last year, until the models have a good handle on a system, it's still anybody's guess. A lot of the models are also keeping the storm in the Pacific. Regardless of the basin though, and whether or not tropical cyclogenesis occurs, portions of Central America are going to see heavy rains from this system.
RGB loop of 90E

Definitely good rotation. Seems to be more stationary.
so you guys are thinking that may cross back into the Caribbean?

Oh thats the GFS storm from a few days ago. Its still not well resolved.


Note the greenish tint in the center of the storm pic above Dr M posted by Mike Theis. Ive heard stories of that. I wonder if it was enhanced.
JFL, some, I think - I'm not in that yet, though. (lol, as if it mattered); but, right now, it looks stationary to me and getting more organized. There's still too much shear in the Caribbean to support further development.
its actually very impressive. Compared to what we have been looking at.
90EINVEST.25kts-1006mb-9.0N-89.0W
Shear,

PWS in the area.

850
Vort.

When is that one from MLC?
NRL 90 E link

Click on "90E.INVEST"
National Hurricane Center - Miami, Florida

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 28May)
==================================
A broad area of low pressure is centered a couple hundred miles west of Costa Rica.. and is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms activity that extends west-southwest from central america for several hundred miles.

Gradual development of this system is possible and it could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it drifts eastward or northeastward. Regardless of development..locally heavy rains are expected over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua during the next day or two.. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=======================================
MODERATE (20-50%)
G'morning, Hades.

If this thing goes east it's got to deal with land interaction(even briefly) and 20-50 kts shear.
Morning everybody.

Interesting to notice the moisture is spreading across the basin. The blowup east of the Bahamas / north of the Lesser Antilles looks impressive. Looks like much of the dry air has been shifted for a while.
Latest visible of Nakri:



It's looking pretty impressive.

From JWTC

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 280000Z TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS.
TWO is set for an update at 5 a.m. Wonder if we're going to see an increased risk?


So this is how NHC is resolving the "two lows" development of the various models. I notice that by Sat the EPac low is gone; I wonder if the movement of the Twave into the area disrupts the development or simply acts to draw it towards the coast . . .
JMA's summary of Nakri:

STS 0805 (Nakri)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 28 May 2008

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30'(15.5°)
E136°50'(136.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 260km(140NM)


This is about the most active the ATL in our area has been for ages. That northern portion of the Twave is producing some impressive convection with the diurnal max. . .

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N66W EXTENDING A SHEAR AXIS
S OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25N70W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK N SLOWLY AS A
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W DISSIPATING TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN
70W AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BROKEN OFF AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 32N34W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
NEAR 13N48W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF
20W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N BRIDGING
THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N45W. THE RESULT IS CALM WEATHER FOR
THE ATLC E OF 55W.


There is a study indicating that the cooler temperatures associated with the la Nina portion of the el Nino la Nina Southern Oscillation is associated with larger tornado outbreaks and stronger tornadoes.
Mark C. Bove of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) in a paper published in 1999 noted a connection between ENSO and tornadic activity in the U.S. La Ninas were associated with tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes. The tornado that wiped out Greensburg, Kansas, last May occurred while the current la Nina was developing.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/papers/impacts_enso_tornadic_activity/

According to Bove, "The results indicate that El Nio events reduce tornadic activity in the southern plain states, while El Viejo [la Nina] events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South. Results further show that El Nio inhibits the chances of multiple tornado outbreaks, while La Nia facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and produces more devastating tornadoes."

A 1996 report for the Defense Technical Information Center noted increased freezing rain in the western U.S. during la Nina years as compared to el Nino years.

I'd seen some references to the tornado incidence before. Seems like there is quite a bit of support for this. Not surprisingly, there is also a slightly greater incidence of TCs in the ATL basin during La Nina years as well.
NHC has a 1006mb SFC low in the Caribbean.
Caribbean system seems more organized and 90E is more organized. Once the Caribbean system moves NW perhaps both could develop?
T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean
The SFC maps from the NHC suggest a possible tropical cyclone from 90E on the 24 and 48 hour maps then on the 72 hour map I looked at, it showed the Caribbean low stationary in the Gulf of Honduras. It looks like the tropical wave that will soon interact with the Caribbean low will kick it NW.
I have not seen too many EPac disturbances develop this close to Latin America. Most develop south of Mexico so?
1058. IKE
Just about all of the models I've looked at take this entire mess WNW to NW for the next several days...winding up around the Yucatan peninsula to the BOC.
1057. leftovers 6:31 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
I have not seen too many EPac disturbances develop this close to Latin America. Most develop south of Mexico so?


It's not that unusual at this time of year. Eward movement into Costa Rica is less usual, though.
1060. IKE
According to the latest GFS(6Z), the ridge will break down in about a week allowing this system to finally head north or NNE toward south FL.

Link
this thing looks like a TS already
Morning everyone.

Steering currents would take 90E towards Costa Rica or Nicaragua; I don't know how this would go westward unless I'm missing something. Right?

I wouldn't put much faith on the models, especially regarding the recent runs. The computer guidance is having problems deciding which low will dominate over the other and this is creating discrepancies during the longer range forecasts. GFS suppresses the Caribbean disturbance despite it showing favorable conditions as it moves to the northwest.
New EPAC Discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE E PAC ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME MORE IDENTIFIABLE IN
THE VICINITY OF 09N88W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 210 NM SW QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND NE
QUADRANTS...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N80W TO 08N84W.

NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS ENE. THE LOW HAS ACQUIRED THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND IN ADDITION THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED BELOW MAY ADD THE NEEDED LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY TO FURTHER HELP SPIN UP THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...TRY TO BRING THE LOW
OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT IN A GENERAL NLY TRACK ACROSS OR NEAR THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

OF NOTE...THE GRADIENT S OF THE E PAC LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING SW-W WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS
8-11 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM SW TO W WITHIN THE BROAD
LOW PRES AREA BETWEEN 81W-93W.

THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE LOW THROUGH 48
HOURS WITH THE FOOTNOTE THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD IF LOW CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
MAIN THING TO CONSIDER FOR TIME BEING IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA
AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WOW!!
1065. IKE
1061. Thundercloud01221991 5:42 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
this thing looks like a TS already


Yeah it does.
This thing has a good chance of developing....
The NHC believes the system will drift East/NE over time...be back later.
IKE i agree that it looks like a TS but it looks like it's spinning the wrong way! I think conditions are favorable immediately offshore.
1071. IKE
1069. all4hurricanes 5:56 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
IKE i agree that it looks like a TS but it looks like it's spinning the wrong way! I think conditions are favorable immediately offshore.


What do you mean by..."the wrong way?" You mean it's movement TOWARD the coast?
IKE i agree that it looks like a TS but it looks like it's spinning the wrong way! I think conditions are favorable immediately offshore.
JP, before I go, the NHC does seem to have taken off the low from their sfc maps in the Caribbean however they still forecast one to develop in 24 hours.
1074. IKE
I only see one low on satellite...in the eastern PAC...I see no spin in the Caribbean.
I'm referring to the wave off on Africa, the small band attached to it and the direction it's facing makes it look like it's spinning clockwise which is typical in the southern hemisphere.
1077. IKE
1076...OK
System in the E-Pac looks like it has started an eastward drift. if that continues, it may tend to relocate to the other side of Central America where topography supports cyclonic turning of surface winds. The overall tropical moisture has moved northward throughout the Caribbean rapidly. If the E-Pac system emerges somehow into the E-Carribean or dissipates, the low in the Caribbean would have a decent chance to develop or merge with the W-Pac low. Any development in that area would be a huge rainmaker for Florida down the road most likely.
Good Morning,

90E is near depression status and becuz of its close proximity to the SW Caribbean, low or no low, it cannot breath effectively becuz of 90E. Also, the GFS and CMC is showing development of the coast of africa this weekend. I am updating my blog.
But the Caribbean low would have to survive this first....
1081. IKE
The extended, 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook, is for above average rain for most of Florida.
Well if theres no low in the Caribbean then theres something thats gotta be spinning down there.
456 development in that area would recurve very early but would be strange no matter what it's track is. That "Blob" over africa is probably just thunderstorms. Often when they look very strong over Africa, they fall apart once they hit the ocean. It looks like the CV season will be super busy this year.
chaser i still think there is an elongated trough, if anything is spinning in the SW Caribbean, it isnt at the surface

I know that theres no surface low, I was implying that the Caribbean spin is stronger than 90E...
JP, It is possible that the low level center and mid level support are moving two different directions. Looking at it in IR loop, 90E looks like it is moving eastward in the last few frames.
a very pwerful wave to exist the coast of africa


Link
Fury just posted that about 20 posts ago....
ok this will likely form into a depression sometime today you can see banding, a CDO and strong convection. Just waiting on vis to prove it is closed
ok stormchaser
This thing is starting to get its act together. Tonight should be interesting.

Didn't the GFS and NOGAPS predict (4 days ago) this to become a depression today?
The NHC has designated the area in the Eastern Pacific as Tropical Invest 90E. An invest is an area of disturbed weather persisting for more than 24 hrs, has the potential to develop and/or affect land. This morning's infrared satellite animation show an organizing system with clusters of thunderstorms developing near the center of circulation. Environmental conditions, such as low vertical shear, poleward outflow, and favorable sea surface temperatures, indicate continue organization of 90E and it is possible to have a depression by Thursday. The steering flow....More
I cant help but think the South American terrain is already coming into play.

On the East side the Convection is stronger but it just doesn't seem to have the rotation the stuff in the pacific has.

NHC mentions the possibility of two systems also.
1096. fmbill
Anyone know anything about this model? Is it usually "out to lunch"?

GEM GLB

Link
1099. IKE
1096. fmbill 6:48 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
Anyone know anything about this model? Is it usually "out to lunch"?

GEM GLB

Link


CMC model or Canadian model. It's usually out-to-lunch.
fmbill that model is from MONDAY. lol
Morning All.

I see our little area is becoming more organized as expected by Wednesday. It will be interesting to watch from here on out. Not that the past week hasn't been enjoyable but, rather stale, lol.
1102. guygee
Good Morning all,

90E is so far south, it is out of view of all of my near-realtime satellite sites. Navy/NRL has sporadic updates less than 6 hours old. NASA/GHCC has the GOES East Full Disk Pictures, as does this old SSD site with a nice view of 90E. The College of DuPage Nexlab site has a really nice N. Hemisphere 24 HR Water Vapor Loop mosaic, but their N. Hemisphere IR loops are currently 1 day old.

Any other suggestions for good views of 90E attm? Are the floaters active?
Thanks!

BTW, keeping track of Dvorak #'s at this SSD site, most recent -
East Pacific Ocean Basin:

DATE/TIME:28/0545 UTC
LAT: 9.2N
LON: 87.0W
CLASSIFICATION: T1.0/1.0
STORM: 90E



1104. guygee
morning jp! Looking for near realtime satellite updates for 90E, if such exist.
Good morning everyone. Just by looking at satellite imagery, I would agree with everyone that this system has become much better organized as the convection has consolidated around a defined, close surface low. I would expect this to become a Tropical Depression by later today or early tomorrow.
Good morning everyone,

I see our little invest is still active and now two model pull it east into Gulf. Will be interesting to watch.
Today I really have to do some stuff around the house but will pop in from time to time to see what is going on.

Have a great day!

Gams
1107. seflagamma 12:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2008
Good morning everyone,

I see our little invest is still active and now two model pull it east into Gulf. Will be interesting to watch.
Today I really have to do some stuff around the house but will pop in from time to time to see what is going on.

Have a great day!

Gams



Which models are doing that?

1111. guygee
cchsweatherman - Agreed it is looking far better organized today. That deep "mesoamerican" high has hammered it farther south than expected. It will be interesting to see if it survives a transition overland into the Caribbean basin in the next couple of days...

Time for Mr. Mom to get the sons off to school. BBL...
My thoughts, along with the TPC at this point, are that there will be 2 systems and that the W Caribb System will win.
90L is becoming very impressive
may end up in SW carribean
most likely it will become a depression
According to the TPC 24 surface map, there should be a surface low in the SW Caribb within 24hrs. Based on satellite obs, it looks to be coming together. We'll have to see how the mid-level circulation reacts with the T-Wave today.
Just emailed NBC6 Meteorologist John Gerard for his latest opinion on this strengthening system. I will post his response when I receive it.
There are substantial mountains in the middle of these systems I don't say separating as I think they are probably not "separate".

The approaching wave is moving roughly W and 90 e NE so..
The NHC has EPAC Floater 2 over 90E. Link
For right now, I'm most concerned with the rainfall occuring and will still be occuring over the next several days as this system slowly moves into Central America and possibly into the Northwest Caribbean. With such mountainous terrain and poor drainage, I would not be surprised to see a disaster occur across Central America. I must reiterate one point: Even weak tropical systems can kill and leave devastating impacts.
28/1145 UTC 9.4N 88.6W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean
1123. IKE
The 1215 UTC satellite from the Navy on 90E...looks better organized and appears to be drifting toward the coast...ENE...

Link
1124. IKE
1122. nrtiwlnvragn 7:35 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
28/1145 UTC 9.4N 88.6W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean


And now the T # has gone up...nearing a TD....
1127. nash28
Morning all.
1128. IKE
Odds are it moves toward the coast and what's left of it meanders around the extreme western Caribbean or over the land mass just to the west...Yucatan,Belize,Nicaragua.......
Good Morning Nash! I have to tell ya (even though I am a Pens fan) the Red Wings are GOOD!
Let's see what happens in Pittsburgh. I don't like our chances though.
Photobucket

Upon analyzing satellite imagery for 90E, there are several things that stand out in my mind.
1) Quite an impressive and well-defined CDO has developed over the center, indicating strengthening is occuring.
2) Banding features have become noticeable around the center of circulation, thus indicating further organization.
3) Outflow has not become established just yet, but there is some decent outflow with this system.
4) Currently the system is heading off towards the ENE and it will make a huge difference if it continues going on this trend as it will go through much less land over Costa Rica, than the projected Nicaragua crossing, meaning the system may be better able to remain intact.

All in all, through my analysis and the current ADT numbers (T1.5/1.5), it is my opinion that we have a well-developed and strengthening Tropical Depression on our hands and would not be surprised to see if classified as such by the 11AM update from the NHC.
Nicaraqua has a ton of volcanos not much chance of a low level circulation making it across that country.
Good morning everyone!
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 88.0W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 89.0W DIRM12 = 73DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 89.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
About half the ensemble models say it will make it as a TS...

1137. Buhdog
I agree that the wave must reach our blob in the carib. before we see action.
while 90E is developing
the countries of central america will
get heavy rain and mudslides


Possible TC now in the sfc map.
"actually the center is a bit further north and west of where you noted and if it were to move ENE it would eventually end up in South America" It okay if you see the world upside down today. Save a A game for later in the season. Have a good day.
Intresting EXTRAP..
8AM spaghetti maps are up on WU.
I have updated my blog:

1145.
Mornin Gryffindor! Its a Invest and its a spinin around..


Nothing will develop in the Caribbean as long as shear is 30-50kts. Some relaxing in the next 24 hrs in the extremes swCarib, but elsewhere increases another 5-15 kts.
1149. IKE
1143. nrtiwlnvragn 8:00 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
8AM spaghetti maps are up on WU.


Those models are already wrong...it's moving at 65 degrees or ENE....
1151. IKE
Just going by what he/she posted..."DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 4KT"
1155. Ohio91
Wow im really suprised looks like we could have TS Alma forming in the next few days, mabye even today.
1158. nash28
WU main page has it moving ENE.
1161. guygee
I was looking for Pacific views of 90E so I neglected to check the regular Atlantic SSD site, where the GOES West Atlantic Imagery gives a good view of 90E with reasonable update frequency and timeliness.

It it interesting to see on the WV loop how the Central CONUS/Mexican DLH is separated from a similar WATL high center by a ULL that is pulling the ULH over 90E towards the N and NE attm. The overall pattern seems to be one of slow retrogression.
Hey Guygee...I don't know if you saw it...but I posted earlier that NHC has a floater on 90E

EPAC Floater 2: Link
1153. jphurricane2006

Past coordinates as shown below:

EP 90 2008052812 1 CARQ -24 97N 898W
EP 90 2008052812 1 CARQ -18 93N 895W
EP 90 2008052812 1 CARQ -12 93N 890W
EP 90 2008052812 1 CARQ -6 96N 885W
EP 90 2008052812 1 CARQ 0 100N 880W
1162.

Well that helps! Thanks Homegirl! (and NHC)
1165. Patrap
GOES-12 (3-Channel)Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link
convection increasing in sw caribbean & lifting north in spite of high shear. Possible swell pump up the channel? Improbable but if development persists, there would be sliver of a glimmer of hope for Gulfsters.
I think 90E is going to have a CDO in the next 6-12 hours if it keeps wrapping like this.
1171. guygee
Thanks homegirl! That is a great view.

I need to catch up on the backposts.
1174. LSU
Then you must have missed the now-deleted above comments about it being TS Alma later today.
1172. If you lived in south Florida and understood how dry it has been here you would be very understanding of folks wishing for an early season tropical system to pass just to our west and dump copious rains on our parched areas. (especially the west coast that didn't get in on last weeks rains at all)
Click the magic buttons and all your problems will go away..
So are we thinking that this Storm will eventually cross into the Caribbean despite the models' predictions?
1179. NEwxguy
Don't forget the season has started in the EPAC
(especially the west coast that didn't get in on last weeks rains at all)


TRUE
JPHurricane,

That was a rough drawing and I agree that it should be further north and slightly further west. Based upon my analysis, I have the center at 9.0N, 87.0W just like Storm. Made a mistake on Paint when I drew the center.
1178.

I think it really depends. If it hit's an area with mountains then forget about it going into the Caribbean. If it slips through either near panama or up by Mexico then maybe just maybe something resembling an area of low pressure could make it through.
1186. guygee
Maybe somebody posted this already:

Panama Canal Authority radar


(Last updated 28 May 08 13:30)
Thanks weathersp... Why is it that despite the continuing westward movement the models still insist on a northerly path? This thing has done nothing but gone east since it was named an invest.
1189. jhicok
The Parkersburg, IA tornado of 5/25/08 was officially rated as an EF5 yesterday. The Des Moines office of the NWS has pictures and radar imagery of the storm.
1190. guygee
Panama Canal Authority Time Lapse Loop Radar Images
WOW take a look at the wind shear in the gulf this AM its olny 5 to 10kt
1192. guygee
GulfScotsman - Yes, correct. Seems to be a lot of debate, but the trend in time is towards the higher side.
.
I'm currently in class so could someone post the link to the GFS and NOGAPS please. (Or prefferably the site by FSU that shows all of them)
Panama Canal radar loop show continuing westerly flow over E-Pac. that would favor eventual development in W.Caribbean if at all.
http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml
1188.
It seems to me that the models are over estimating the power of the bermuda high...
Hey FlWeather...you can find them all on one site -

www.stormjunkie.com

Have a great day everyone...off to the beach with the kids...how many more days till school is back in session?!!!??

Thanks guys. So it seems the nogaps is back on with a stronger system, althoughy sheared to the east. Is this correct?
WOW take a look at the wind shear in the gulf this AM its olny 5 to 10kt
1200. melwerle 9:57 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
Have a great day everyone...off to the beach with the kids...how many more days till school is back in session?!!!??



However many days it is until mid August lol
1205. Buhdog
The whole thing is puffing out some serious tops! I was thinking that none of us in Florida should ask for this to come our way. We do this anytime there are clouds anywhere within 1,000 miles or us or more. Guess what? We never seem to get the rain...and the odds of this blob forming and coming north... then being "just west" of us for the most rain.... is just unbearable....it's just a big let down. I am going for reverse psych.....It WILL NEVER GET HERE!!! (I hope this works)
1206. fmbill
If a storm gets a name in the EPAC, and successfully moves into the Caribbean, does it get a new name or does it keep the EPAC name?
1207. nash28
NOGAPS has stayed with the most EWD solution for days now.
1208. IKE
SSD satellite isn't updating...looks like a large mass of convection coming off of SA...must be that tropical wave....that'll add fuel to the fire.
1209. thalos
These three days it has almost rained what falls usually in one month, there was drought to the north of my country, but with this wave of low pressure it has been reverted the situation a little, we wait that it benefits the inhabitants of the north, greetings from Costa Rica....
1206. fmbill 9:59 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
If a storm gets a name in the EPAC, and successfully moves into the Caribbean, does it get a new name or does it keep the EPAC name?


As long as its winds stay above 39 mph then it will keep its name.
1211. guygee
GS - It seems that the newer studies have trended towards a higher estimate of total carbon emissions due to tropical deforestation. That is what I meant. The research shows that the carbon emissions from human-caused deforestation (land-use change) is roughly constant over time, but that due to natural causes such as droughts and wildfires fluctuates from year to year, as would be expected.
Good Morning Storm. What do you think of the continuing westerlies in the E-Pac. Is it a long term trend or just associated with a very broad low pressure that would tend to congeal.

"....Overestimating the strength of the Bermuda High"

Look at how rapidly moisture has drawn northward into the Caribbean sea. 2 days ago it was totally moisture starved. The fact that moisture is moving northward like that would indicate that the Bermuda High is starting to influence the Tropical Atlantic.
1213. Patrap
GOES-12 (3-Channel)Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link
The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain
the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e. advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g. Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the RSMC Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.

National Hurricane Operations Plan
1215. Patrap
Cue the Jaws, Movie Theme.....
Leftover prediction of the epac system. Simple it will move north slowly teasing El Salvador and Mex high pressure will move in send it in a more common western direction. W Carib. no idea what is going to happen.
1217. Patrap
Thanx for that source data nrtiwlnvragn.
1219. IKE
1213. Patrap 9:07 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
GOES-12 (3-Channel)Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link


Thanks for that view...this is starting to look impressive on the Caribbean side.
8AM multi-model spaghetti plots. Would post an image but the site does not allow it.
Carbon..Carbon..Carbon...Plants are made of Carbon. Animals are made of Carbon. We are made of Carbon. This planet is made of carbon. That is why we are CARBON BASED LIFE FORMS! If the ultimate goal to stop using carbon then we should either plan to evacualte earth or go extinct. Enough about carbon. Lets talk tropics.
1224. IKE
RAMSDIS satellite is working.......

Link

1109. HIEXPRESS 1:46 PM EDT on May 24, 2008
Another option, just as likely says the M8B model:
We got enough rain to put a damper on the fires here in FL, so I think we should cancel the TS we had on order (which was backordered anyway due to shear and/or not being able to get a big enough cluster of storms together to keep out the dry mid-level air. See all the arcs?

Broad low can rain out some of the energy starting to build up down South, & the rest can transport North efficiently enough without all the dramatic cyclonic turning.


Has it rained out all the juice yet? It better do something fast if it's going to, because the dry air is coming back. GTG BBL
1222. It sure looks organized on the the sat if you look at both basins together. If it makes it into the Caribbean it could be a beautiful rainmaker for Florida and the S.E US toward the middle of next week.
1228. guygee
Disagree, GS...save the discussion for some late blobless night, tho...
i see nothing developing in the sw caribbean...the shear is forecast to increase and that will tear whatever is trying to develop apart...its a hostile enviroment so dont get to excited..the season has just started..concentraste in the pacific..stormkat
Good morning... what's going on?
jp dont get to excited its not going to happen...the shear is to strong..stormkat
05 28 1250

ENE 19.4 23.3
From NWS bouy in sw caribbean-now have a wind switch from east to northeast & increasing
Watching satellite loops for Invest 90E reminds me of a sprawling low that we had sitting over the Yucatan late last hurricane season that had moisture inflow from the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean all at the same time. It seems like 90E is churning up a large expanse of atmosphere in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean. This could be one factor that could help it survive a trek across Central America.
Think it will make depression status today?
ok jp whatever you say....you have your opinion ...i say the convection will be ripped apart by the the strong shear....stormkat
take a look at the wind shear in the gulf its olny 5 to 10kt this AM
oh look oh is back


run for your lives
The most important thing to remember stormkat is that there is very little to no shear over the circulation right now. It appears that an upper-level high is indeed developing over the system, albeit rather elongated at this time. Current forecasts have this upper-level high building into the Western Caribbean as the upper-level trough in the Caribbean retreats into the Central Atlantic. So, don't rule anything out just yet there stormkat.

I must agree with JP that this is very near Tropical Depression, if not Tropical Storm status right now based upon the latest ADT numbers and satellite imagery.
1245. IKE
1239. stormkat 9:35 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
ok jp whatever you say....you have your opinion ...i say the convection will be ripped apart by the the strong shear....stormkat


He's talking about 90E...in the east PAC...shear isn't strong there.
Will become TD and then pfffff....out.
. stormkat this be came # 22 on my Ignore
Morning all :~)

Good to see everyone.

I see the GFS is still trying to make an Atl side system out of this jumbled area in the Carib.

Cute little swirl out in the Catl as well....
we will see jp...its impossible for something to form in the caribbean in the next week...it just wont happen guys...stormkat
wind shear in the gulf is vary low this AM 5 to 10kt if any thing gets in the gulf it will have a good ch
When will the NHC post the next outlook? Is that when we would find out if it was upgraded to a depression?
good morning everyone

The Caribbean is starting to look interesting. The shear tendency South of 15N has been falling and it looks as if a high is trying to build over the area.
Will go west out in to the pacific
Thanks jp. But, can we find out if it's been upgraded to a TD before then? Is it posted anywhere or anything... sorry, this is one thing I'm really not familiar with.
Morning smmc

That is when the official word would come, but most of the time we get an early alert that something has switched from invest to TD status by using the Navy NRL Monterey Tropical page. The wording of 90E. Invest would change to something like 01E NoName.

Second link under imagery here.
1259. IKE
SSD satellite is back working as of 1345 UTC.
1260. nash28
It's not TD yet. NRL would have it as NONAME. Still 90E.
1261. IKE
1257. smmcdavid 9:48 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
Thanks jp. But, can we find out if it's been upgraded to a TD before then? Is it posted anywhere or anything... sorry, this is one thing I'm really not familiar with.


The Navy site will usually update faster...usually .....

1264. nash28
Correct Kman. ULH is building down in the SW CB as the trough clears out.
Thanks SJ... I actually have that link, but didn't know that's where I need to look. You rock.
Sometimes they do a "Formation Imminent" type warning.
Thanks to everyone else for answering too... SJ just got to it first! Ha ha.
There's a lot of 850mb turning down there on both sides. This is day one of what the models we're anticipating, give it time to evolve. Shear is very low in the SW Caribb and EPAC, where development is anticipated. Very little movement will allow many updated shear maps to take place concerning the shear to the north. Which is now caused by a weakness in the ridge in the Western Atlantic.
Only the main Link Works.
1271. IKE
1270. JFLORIDA 9:53 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
Only the main Link Works.


I wondered why I couldn't get it to link...thanks......
Good deal smmc :~)

Just trying to get you in the habit of using the navigational portal instead of the over crowded bookmarks...lol

jp-You always have that link. See previous link ;~)


Shear may be falling somewhat in the extreme sw and se Carib, but in the northern Carib shear tendency says its increasing 5-20 kts above present high conditions. I just don't see anything developing soon in the Caribbean from a 90E crossing (especially with land interaction) or other cyclogenesis - the latter being more likely, but very slow.
No kidding... I get so confused sometimes. lol
But wasn't Alberto in like 40 or 60 kts of shear?
MLC - Just remember, just as quickly as shear can rise, shear can fall just as fast.
Still no update out from the NHC regarding Invest 90E.
1280. franck
moonlight...think you're right on.
1281. nash28
Barry was under 40-50kts of shear and a boatload of dry air. As I said last night. If there is a strong ULH moving with a Low, it can sheild it from the shear.
Here are a few obs from the S Caribbean.

Buoy 42058 has E winds @ 17 knots

Puerto Cabezas near the Nicaragua/Honduras border has ENE winds @ 12 mph. This is to the SW of the buoy.

Bluefields Nicaragua which is much further S along the coast has N winds @5 mph

These obs are indicative of a surface circulation to the east of Nicaragua and the quikscat pass, that unfortunately missed much of the area, shows significant turning N of Panama.

Pressures are still relatively high though.
1283. Buhdog
Could someone post a couple of links to a couple of model runs...thanks
1275. jphurricane2006 9:59 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
To me the convection in the Caribbean is rotating around a broader low and the center of 90E, if that is the case, then development is even less likely


RAMSDIS VIS loop

JP, that would be my thinking, too.
The pressures are not all that impressive yet either.
GS, sounds very similar to what the models have been hinting at. Very good observation, and I like the comparison pic!
1284 & 1275

Do we have a model showing that development should be occurring soon?

I refer you to GS's post. imho, he hit the nail on the head as far as what would play out if something develops. Complex situation down there, and it will not lead to instant gratification.
Watching the latest RAMSDIS loops, it appears that the low-level circulation has really started to tighten as convection continues to organize and consolidate around the center. Quite an impressive system.

By the way, doesn't the NHC issue a Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours for the Eastern Pacific? Still have no update from the NHC.
There is another possibility as well

The rotation of 90E might be inducing a high over the S Caribbean due to the counterclockwise rotation in the EPAC with winds coming up from the South and fanning out to the NE
Buhdog,

Forecast Model Pages

And some video tutorials on how to navigate some of the model pages.
1294. IKE
Managua, NK (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 3 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
82 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)..............

Nicaragua
1289. kmanislander 11:10 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
There is another possibility as well

The rotation of 90E might be inducing a high over the S Caribbean due to the counterclockwise rotation in the EPAC with winds coming up from the South and fanning out to the NE


That is sone excellent thinking there. Never thought about that. Definitely something to consider and monitor. See, this is why I come here to these blogs; they offer so many insights and opinions that you're bound to learn something new or have your views changed as you become more aware of the global perspective.
1296. OUSHAWN
JP,

I have to respectfully disagree with you. I see a seperate circulation going on in the SW Caribbean. If you look right near land you can see there is definite smaller turning going on there on the Caribbean side. I could be wrong but looks to me like that is what is going on.

Shawn
Not sure I understand the question jp.

I have seen centers relocate, and coexist for a short period of time. Especially in broad weak systems (what we have).

And again, I am not looking for any development today or tomorrow. 90e moving inland would change the dynamics of the Carib side considerably as it weakens and dissipates. I am also not saying a system will develop on the Atl side, just saying it is not out of the realm of possibility. Just going to take time if it does.

Again, no instant gratification. Pretty swirl down there; but it is a wait and see system. As most are.
1288. cchsweatherman

TWD and TWO are now issued at synoptic time, 8Am, 2PM, 8PM, 2AM.
1299. nrtiwlnvragn 11:18 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
1288. cchsweatherman

TWD and TWO are now issued at synoptic time, 8Am, 2PM, 8PM, 2AM.


Well, the NHC has to update their graphic indicating that they have updates a 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM.
1300. cchsweatherman

Which graphic is that?
On the models: 2 of the computer models (NOGAPS and
GFS) still show some development in the western
Caribbean, however have pushed this back until the
first week of June. The NOGAPS brings a Tropical
Storm up to the Yucatan Channel at 144 hours out, and
the GFS brings the system over SE FL late in the first
week of June. I cannot rule this out completely at
this time, as some of the computer models do reduce
wind shear around that time to marginal to slightly
favorable levels close to the end of that time frame.
As far as any development in the western Caribbean
within the next few days...it is slim at this
time...as with the EPAC system so close, the outflow
from the upper levels will have a tendency to stifle
anything in the western Caribbean. I will continue to
monitor this area over the next week.
-StormW

jp, you say the voice of reason, but I think this is exactly what GS and myself were referring to. So now I am even more confused as to what we are debating?
Here is the link nrtiwlnvragn.
Link
1304. cchsweatherman

That is PDT not EDT, 11AM PDT - 2PM EDT
Never mind nrtiwlnvragn. That is Pacific standard time, not Eastern standard time. Made a mistake.
1309. IKE
And the high is suppose to break down by next week over the SE USA......

From the Mobile,AL morning discussion...long-term.....

"The airmass will be fairly capped off through
much of the weekend. We bring the slight chance probability of precipitation back into the
picture in the early next week as a weakness is projected to form on
the east side of the upper ridge
...giving a somewhat greater
potential for any mesoscale system developing along the southern
edge of the stronger midlevel westerlies to come down the
northwesterly flow aloft into Mississippi and Alabama."
1310. guygee
The WV loops show an upper level trough working its way along the backside (west) of the ULH over 90E. This shows up in the CIMMS 200mb Relative Vorticity Analyses as well. The interaction with the trough is expanding the ULH NE into the Caribbean, where some impressive upper level divergence is combining with low-level convergence in the vicinity of broad low pressure at the surface.

I will not be surprised to see 90E come ashore on the W. Coast of Costa Rica within the next 24 hrs, with the possibility on a new surface low center forming in the SW Caribbean. What happens after that remains to be seen (a bridge too far for my tastes).

BBL.
Well then there is no debate...lol :~)

That area is a slow roller and it will just have to fester for a while if anything is to come of it.
1313. franck
This time of year it doesn't take as much wind to break up a developing system. Actually, it would be great for a tropical system to form and bring soaking rains to a large area of the SE, even if there were some accompanying winds. But it probably won't happen. Nothing coming to the 'gigante del norte'.
And, that also reiterates what K'man has been saying, too - any development will be slow, especially considering 90E consuming energy and any land interaction, not to mention nCarib forecasts of increased shear. However, WU's shear map indicates shear may become more favorable.



I'm thinking 90E will strengthen somewhat, possibly get named, eventually moving n, wnw, nw, and then dissipate with land interaction.
No need to apologize jp, I am always up for good healthy debate.

How all of us learn. Heck sometimes I play devil's advocate just so I can make sure there is nothing I am missing on the other side of what I perceive to be going on.
Morning SW :~)

Always a informative read!
The E-Pac/Caribbean system looks to be splitting apart now. There is a definite circulation in the E-Pac but there are hints of a circulation in the SW Carib. Topography will assist anything developing in the SW Carib.

Shear is very low in the GOM but not nearly as low as atmospheric moisture content. The moisture that has filled in the Caribbean over the last 48 hrs. would have to spread northward into the GOM for a tropical system to have a chance to develop there.
MLC,
Should be interesting but are you prepared for Hurricane season?


This shows the MJO pulse weakening.
Sporte, I'm ready, have car, have gas - WILL TRAVEL!
1323. Ivansrvivr 11:40 AM EDT on May 28, 2008
The E-Pac/Caribbean system looks to be splitting apart now. There is a definite circulation in the E-Pac but there are hints of a circulation in the SW Carib. Topography will assist anything developing in the SW Carib.

Shear is very low in the GOM but not nearly as low as atmospheric moisture content. The moisture that has filled in the Caribbean over the last 48 hrs. would have to spread northward into the GOM for a tropical system to have a chance to develop there.


That last part of your post depends upon how developed the tropical system would be at the time it would enter the GOM. Dry air is real damaging to developing systems, but if a system has already developed, it usually can produce its own moisture and dry air will not be a great inhibiting factor.
MLC,
I hope this is not a dumb question. I am trying to learn from all of you. What is the MJO pulse and what effect does it have on the tropics?
323. Ivansrvivr 10:40 AM CDT on May 28, 2008
Shear is very low in the GOM but not nearly as low as atmospheric moisture content. The moisture that has filled in the Caribbean over the last 48 hrs. would have to spread northward into the GOM for a tropical system to have a chance to develop there.


...Amen!
1330. 0741
so rain that we were going to get here in miami got push into next week
Bystander, no such thing as dumb questions, right? I ask them all the time, and I thank the good folks here for answering them - I've asked TONS.

The MJO is interesting. It can create additional moisture that aids in tropical development this time of year. I'll post this from the CPC and a couple of links so you'll get a better understanding. I'm still learning about it myself.

What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)?
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward
around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. The MJO has wide
ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric
circulation, and surface temperature around the global tropics and subtropics. There is
evidence that the MJO influences the ENSO cycle. It does not cause El Nino or La Nina,
but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of El Nino and La Nina
episodes.


MJO defined and characteristics.


MJO conditions and forecasts




I blogged on it a few weeks ago here.
Hey guys....I just looked at a 30 frame water vapor loop of the West Atl/EPAC.....anyone notice an upper level cyclonic flow continues to dig across the Gulf and into the EPAC which is helping drive 90E towards the northeast. Its rather interesting to watch

MLC,
Thanks for taking the time to do all of that. It is greatly appreciated. I have some studying to do on my lunch hour!
Formerly H2Omaker, back again. I've been lurking and reading for the past 8 months since moving. No longer in the Houston area. I've moved to NW Louisiana now. My job is still water, but in a bit of a different sense. The power of hydrogen still drives the processes as it does in nearly all fluid processes and reactions.

I'm enjoying the reading and can now interject my comments and opinions. The tornado footage last week was amazing and appreciate those that posted the links.

BTW, to my eye it looks like we've got some splitting of the low(s) in the EPac and SW Carib. But I have to agree with 456, it appears that the total "draw" is to the Carib of all the energy. Time will tell.
New Blog
1338. hugg70
There is no doubt that we are in a poeriod of globel climate warming. The grilla in the room is whether man has created it and if so to what extent. Perhaps a new bloog with some guys smarter than I.