WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The Rough Guide to Climate Change: A book review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:47 PM GMT on January 29, 2008

If you're bewildered by the complexity of the climate change/global warming issue, and want a comprehensive, easy-to-understand guide that presents an unbiased view of the important issues, look no further than Robert Henson's Rough Guide to Climate Change. In fact, we've found the Rough Guide to Climate Change so helpful and well written, that wunderground has licensed a copy of the introductory chapter and featured it on our Climate Change web page. This chapter is a "sneak preview" of the Second Edition, which is scheduled to be released February 4. If I were teaching a course on climate change at the high school or introductory college level, this would be the text.

However, the Rough Guide does not read like a textbook. It presents the key issues in a straightforward, clear, and conversational manner. The author, Robert Henson, is a meteorologist and journalist who works as a writer/editor at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. He organizes his book into four sections: "The basics"--global warming in a nutshell; "The symptoms"--what's happening now, and what might happen in the future; "The science"--how we know what we know about climate change; and "Debates & solutions"--from spats and spin to saving the planet. The book has information current up to September 2007, and discusses the major climate change event so far this century--the record melting of the Arctic's sea ice that peaked in September 2007, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history.

Helpful graphics and interesting sidebars are interspersed throughout the text. Some of the more interesting sidebars include an interview with James Lovelock, originator of the Gaia Hypothesis that treats Earth as a living being; "The Nights Chicago Fried", an account of the deadly 1999 heat wave in Chicago; and "The Fast-Disappearing Snows of Kilimanjaro", discussing the controversy over why Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice is disappearing. My favorite sidebar is "Climate Change and the Cinema", where we learn that the first movie to discuss artificial climate change was probably Zombies of the Stratosphere (1952), which featured a young Leonard Nimoy as part of a gang of Martians bent on exploding Earth from its orbit so Mars can move sunward and benefit from a warmer climate. The sidebar also discusses the impact of movies like The Day After Tomorrow and Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.

The 2006 first edition of the Rough Guide is my favorite climate change reference book, and I highly recommend purchasing the second edition when it comes out February 4. You can preorder a copy of the second edition from amazon.com ($16.99, softcover). Overall rating: four stars out of four.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters! Have a good day.
Thanks Dr. Masters

In Harrisburg, PA we woke up to a freezing rain this morning that when it hit the ground turned to ice. Not many of the school called for delays, so it hit came as somewhat of a surprise. Numerous accidents were reported many involving emergency response vehicles.

The rain just happened to start early in the morning before the temperature could rise above freezing, and many of those that the commuted to work before 7AM were not affected, or not aware of the icing.
Thanks Dr. Masters, Looks like a good, interesting read.
Nice late finish to the 2007 hurricane season.
"Nuclear reactors across the Southeast could be forced to throttle back or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the awesome amounts of cooling water they need to operate."

"An Associated Press analysis of the nation's 104 nuclear reactors found that 24 are in areas experiencing the most severe levels of drought. All but two are built on the shores of lakes and rivers and rely on submerged intake pipes to draw billions of gallons of water for use in cooling and condensing steam after it has turned the plants' turbines."
"Currently, nuclear power costs between $5 to $7 to produce a megawatt hour...It would cost 10 times that amount that if you had to buy replacement power -- especially during the summer."

Under computer-modeled GlobalWarming scenarios, that SouthEast drought is expected to become (closer to) the new norm replacing the historical average of yearly precipitation.
Slightly off-topic for the post subject, but just to point to Tropical Cyclone 14S / Gula, which is about to bear down on Mauritius and La Reunion on Thursday. Winds expected to be 80 - 90 knots near the centre.
"...the record melting of the Arctic's sea ice that peaked in September 2007, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history."

Of course recorded history in the Arctic only goes back to the 1600’s, which is after the little ice age was well under way. Not only the Northwest Passage could have been open, the arctic may have been ice-free during the medieval warm period and during the Roman warm period as well.
Thanks for the post Dr. Masters--will be ordering that book for the library!
Weather and Economics

The recent snow events in China have been the worst in 50 yrs. This has led to many factories in China to shut down due difficulties in transporting raw materials. As a result, output fell in China in the recent weeks. This is just addding to the economic crisis in the U.S.

Where is Global Warming?

Try this.....name all places in the N Hemisphere that were affected by winter weather in some way this winter. Name all the places in the N Hemisphere that received snow or unseasonably cold weather. I know you cant draw conlusions on January alone or by one region but when u look at it...this winter was unusual.
Excellent and well define curve band pattern being displayed by Gene in the SW Pacific

From Above by Dr. M.

-the record melting of the Arctic's sea ice that peaked in September 2007,opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history.

Interesting

Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942.

source

AND

The Swedish explorer Nils Adolf Erik Nordenskjold (1832-1901) was the first to complete a voyage through the Northeast Passage along the northern coast of Europe and Asia.

Travelling in the steamship Vega, he started in 1878 from Tromso, Norway. He almost made it through the entire passage, but just short of the Bering Strait and the ice-free water of the Pacific Ocean, the ship became ice-bound for the winter. He completed the Atlantic to Pacific voyage the following spring.
source

I reckon they didn't get the memo. I imagine any boat currently there is also icebound for the winter. To bad they didn't have a little faster boats. The record referred to going back to when?

JER
Where is Global Warming?

Try this.....name all places in the N Hemisphere that were affected by winter weather in some way this winter. Name all the places in the N Hemisphere that received snow or unseasonably cold weather. I know you cant draw conlusions on January alone or by one region but when u look at it...this winter was unusual.



Blame the Little Girl for stealing the warmth:


The CMA made this forecast last summer (Microsoft Word document; Google cache); here is a composite of La Nina winters - notice temperatures up to 30 degrees below normal (in Celsius?; that would be over 50*F below normal; either way, 30 departures over several months are mind-boggling):



The impact of La Nina event on China climate is obvious and it can cause severe disaster. The statistical analyses denote that Precipitations were likely to be excessive in the northern China during autumn of La Nina year, and the precipitations were excessive in the Huanghe and the Huai River basin during autumns, especially with 50% more than normal in the middle reach of the Huanghe River (Fig. 6). In addition, temperatures were below normal over most of China during the winter of La Nina year and severe cold air could cause big loss of crops in southern China.

For the United States (unfortunately not where I live... I would kill to have a record cold and snowy winter):

The polar jet stream, which in an El Nino year stays high in Canada, moves farther south, driving frigid air down into the U.S. Winters are colder, especially in the northwestern and upper midwestern states.

Compare to just a year ago, during an El Nino (and what else could possibly cool the earth from record warm so quickly, except for a pool of cold water covering half of the Pacific now, probably the strongest La Nina on record at this point when considering the extent of it, not just along the equator?):

Warmest winter in history, world wide, success in prediction again, still a lot of mystery to unravel


People sadly keep dismissing global warming because they don't take into account things like ENSO, which does result in large year-to-year variations (look at the minus 30 departures on the map I posted, not for this winter but for past La Nina winters; even a daily -30 departure (or 30) is incredible, much less 3 months)...
This was from 1988:

Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


So, we might be seeing conditions like that in the 1970s right now.
Does the book actually say that climate change is due to Global Warming?
I wish we had some snow here in Finland. Just north of latitude 60N no snow by the end of January?! This is not normal. About a week ago we had a mini snowstorm which brought not even 3" of snow. It has all melted away by now and the neverending drizzle is back.
Normally we should have more than twice as much snow and temperatures around 0F but currently we are close to the 40s. In previous winters I could walk over the frozen sea to college from January until the end of March. It seems now that I won't be able to do that this year.
This winter is even worse than last year when the normal stable winter weather set in around January 20th with said conditions. Still the sea was frozen for only about one month.
I guess the reason is a warmer North Atlantic for more than a year now resulting in a strong stream of moist and mild air which influences the weather here since November. Second, the Baltic Sea, the sea around Finland, is warmer than average.

Given the extreme winter weather events elsewhere on the globe the term global warming doesn't seem to fit but Scandinavian warming would hit the target *lol* Some places in Lapland in the North (around 65-70N) had an anomaly of 7-9F over average for this autumn.
That's some wild weather system in the midwest!
Tornado 12 mi W of Indy moving NE at 65mph, winds to 80mph in the area...!




and discusses the major climate change event so far this century--the record melting of the Arctic's sea ice that peaked in September 2007, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history.



It's time for this big fat lie to stop.


First, recorded history is only for the past 30 years, since 1978.
That's only 30 years of recorded history.
No where near a century.

The Canadian police patrol boat, the St Roch II, passed throgh the Northwest Passage and found it wide open in the fall of 2000.

Link

RCMP vessel St Roch sailed the Northwest passage west to east, then turned around and sailed it back, east to west in 1940, 1942, and 1944.

Link

Roald Amundsen became the first person to sail the entire Passage from east to west and that was in 1906.

A Dutch businessman, Willy de Roos, 56, made a solo voyage through the Northwest Passage in 1977

Mike Beedell and Jeffrey MacInnis, sailed through the Northwest Passage using a catamaran with wind power only in 1988.

The M.V. Lindblad, a Swedish tourist ship, traveled through the Northwest Passage in 1984. They did it with luxurious food and in comfort. The trip was a 40 day trip from Newfoundland to Japan via the Passage and cost the tourists $16,000 to $22,000. In 1984.
The Lindblad made a second trip through the Passage in 1988.


Link

In 1977 another Canadian ship, with four Canadians, made the trip through the Passage as well. At one point of their trip they sailed together with the Dutch businessman who was making the solo trip.

Link


What's most interesting about those late 1970's crossing is that is the same time that climatologists were predicting the coming of the next ice age

because there was supposed to be too much ice........

.
What Lat?
Do you think science and facts are being subverted by some agenda? Please say it ain't so, my heart is broken, I came here, as a charter member, to learn about weather, oh well I'm sure getting a lesson for sure.
Excerpts from this article

Don't tell the thousands of Chinese stuck at railway stations or airports, but the chaos caused by a vicious cold spell afflicting much of China could be just a taste of things to come, experts say.


"There is no doubt (climate change is to blame) for such weather events," Wang Qiwei, a climatologist with the China Meteorological Administration, wrote in an online forum set up to answer public questions about the cold weather

Average 2006 temperatures in China were the warmest in 55 years, while last year saw some of the worst regional droughts in decades, leaving huge swathes of farmland withered and rivers at record low levels.


OMG 55 years ago! I wasn't even born yet! Of course I did not hear about the lake in Russia that froze over for the first time in 50 years, which also must be caused by global warming, oh excuse me climate change

Well that does it, I'm going to find a new planet, Global warming is causing record cold spells. That my friends is from a climatologist! Please would someone wake me up when the world starts laughing at this stuff.
Global warming is causing record cold spells

"There is no doubt (climate change is to blame) for such weather events," Wang Qiwei, a climatologist with the China Meteorological Administration


ROTFLMAO... The media (and some of the CMA scientists) are deluded and clueless; the CMA actually hinted at a cold winter because of La Nina (see my post above, the map they have suggests that La Nina winters are incredibly cold). I guess there was some misinformation among members of the CMA...
It figures - I could find only one article on Google News that mentioned the La Nina connection:

Chen Lijuan, from the National Climate Center, said the extreme conditions had been influenced by the La Nina weather phenomenon, which refers to the extensive cooling in areas of the Pacific Ocean.
It's a shame that weather reporting in the news media has become this global warming fear factory.

It makes some sense when one considers the political circus that global warming has become. All of a sudden every weather anomaly is due to global warming, even though these events have precedent. Usually you'll hear that such and such event hasn't occured for such and such years. Well if it has occured before then it isn't such a shock that it would occur again. But now since global warming has become a hot topic, especially in the media, not one weather anomaly will ever pass again without a reference to global warming.

We saw it all this previous autumn with the southern California wildfires. Suddenly the fires were result of global warming. Media members even sought out climatologists to ask them if the fires were result of global warming. In other words, they're seeking out the news articles due to preconceived notions. Ricky mentioned in his blog that a couple of media agencies contacted him to ask him whether or not those fires were global warming induced. He didn't give them the answer they were hoping for, but judging from some of the articles in the days following the fires they got the answer they were looking for from other folks ready to raise the global warming banner to these stories.

As it turns out more than 90% of those fires were found be a result of arson in the weeks that followed and it made a lot of people look very silly.
Thanks for the review Dr Masters.

I got to agree with Michael about La Niña causing all the wild winter in China as well as across the northern US. It's why I said this past fall~ that those up there that been wanting to see their snow was gonna see plenty this year. The corrilation between La Niña & expected weather is pretty well studied.
sullivanweather, are you saying that the media said that global warming caused the trees and brush in Cali to spontaneously combust? Because you seem to be implying that arson being the cause of ignition negates any connection to the influence of climate on the severity of a fire and that's not so. Climate defines the areas where the big burns happen out west. Weather sometimes causes (as lightning) and usually contributes (think Santa Ana winds) to those burns.

I think what you may have seen is people looking for a possible connection between excessive drought, extreme winds, and GW - and that's certainly open for and worthy of debate, don't you think? It's more data and more data is good, imo.
I live in SoCal and most of the media discussion I saw was about how much worse these fires are now that the areas where they burn are so built up - it leads to higher economic losses and more displaced people. But, hey, maybe I just missed the other stories.
sp,

Pretty much...

I read the national headlines coming from the southern California fires. Most of them initially reported these fires to be result of global warming.

"Warming climate contributes to socal fires"
"Socal wildfires, is global warming to blame"

A hundred other headlines all outlined the same story.


Then reports came in attributing most fires to arsonists.

Could the fires have been worse due to the fact that they were following the driest water year on record following a very wet winter the prior season? Most likely...

Would the total acreage burned not been as high as it was due to arson, of course.

Perhaps better zoning management would have prevented some housing developments from being built in environmentally sensitive areas, such as those you describe above. Building housing in the middle of brush fields, chaparral, etc. isn't smart planning. This is what happens when developers are trying to maximize their profits and you never see any opposition to such developments.



Just reading Ricky's post shows that the media has a hidden agenda. They want to create this global warming hysteria (which is why we have 'environmental journalists' now, people whose job it is to write global warming stories everyday). There's dozens of 'global warming' stories daily. Whether its a story about some future prediction, or some weather event that hasn't happened in 10, 30, 50, 100 years, it's all called global warming in the media, or now, climate change (since we can now include cold snaps such as the one occuring over Asia currently within the whole global warming/climate change hysteria.)

When you start to read articles such as this:

China weather chaos a sign of things to come: experts

--------------

Excerpts:

The inclement weather and ensuing problems merely highlight the country's increasing vulnerability to the extreme weather swings characteristic of global climate change, experts say, and is likely to be repeated in future years.

With climate change gaining pace and the planet generally warming up, the social, economic and political impact on China will rise along with the mercury, experts said.

----------

When one can take a cold snap and twist it into a story about global warming, we all know that something is wrong in the media.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A well define cold front extends across the Southeastern United Sates and dips across the Gulf of Mexico to the Mexican coast at 24N-97W. The frontal boundary south of 26N and the surrounding area remain relatively inactive due to the stable upper level environment. North of 25N, divergence in the upper levels is producing scattered moderate to strong cloudiness and showers across the Southeast United States and Northern Florida. Meanwhile, the associated 1023 mb high-pressure system is established over the Deep South, producing fair weather and gale force winds over the Northeast Gulf behind the front as indicated by surface observations ad QuikSCAT.

Mainly low shallow clouds dominate the Western Atlantic with the exception of 28N-35N/65W to the East Coast, where moisture associated with the approaching frontal boundary is invading the area. A transitory anticyclone is situated 1021 mb at 28N/71W. In the meantime, an upper trough as its axis along 62W. The converging flow at 200 hpa west of the trough is further supporting subsidence in the surface anticyclone. Cold air overcast to broken low clouds covers the area from South Florida to 60W, which includes the Bahamas, the Atlantic shores of Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Cold weather in the Caribbean? A cold front is currently pushing across the Eastern Caribbean extending from 14N-65W across the Island of Dominica and into the Atlantic through 20N/61W 30N/64W. Some unseasonably cold air with temperatures well below average accompanies the frontal boundary. The front lies within a confluent environment and thus shower activity remains light, scattered to isolated. This is truly my first cold front in memory. Elsewhere...Mid-upper level dry covers most of the Caribbean Basin above low-level tradewind moisture. These patches of shallow cloudiness will pass over some of islands inducing periods of light to moderate showers. These should be heavier as they move ashore and rise along the Central American Terrain.

by W456
Good morning all! I've been very busy with college and now a job, so I haven't had time to come on in quite a while. I hope that you all are doing well.

I will have a full update on my site today, so feel free to stop by and check it out.

That was an excellent book review Dr. Masters and I may just purchase the book. This climate change topic is such a controversial one with evidence that supports both the skeptics and the believers of global warming that noone can be considered incorrect in their beliefs. Recently, there has been evidence supporting the fact that global warming has slowed down and the hole in the ozone layer has shrunk considerably over the past several years. The bottomline is that you cannot say someone is incorrect on their viewpoints on global warming, so please stop arguing and bickering over whose right and whose wrong.

Take it easy all and let me know how you are all doing. Just send me a message since I will be now updating my site.

CCHS Weatherman

PS 456, that is so cool (no pun intended) that you guys in the Caribbean are experiencing a cold front. Must feel very nice.
boy it does feel refreshing
Snow in middle east

I have just finished updating my site. I have been asked to create a National Weather page on my site and I have completed that page. I will have more additions to my site in the coming weeks that will make understanding weather much easier and will provide all with the most accurate information I can bring. Maybe I'll even have a blog on my site, especially for when hurricane season comes around. Please leave a comment on my site so that I know how I am doing.
Looking over a beach in South

Bloubergstrand Beach Boulevard, Cape Town

I have begun gathering data and info for my 2008 Hurricane Season predictions that will come out on March 1. They will be posted on my site and I will host a blog here with those predictions and my explanations for deriving my predictions. If anyone has any information or comments that they feel would help me create these predictions, please feel free to send me your input. If you do send me your input and I do use your information, I will credit you in the report.
global WARMING?
global cooling is more like it!
really weird cold temperatures in Puerto Rico this season.
Down to 43F in Aibonito! NOT normal at all!
Here is tomorrow's QPF. Let's hope this forecast is correct.
It would be extremely beneficial:


Photobucket

Does the book actually say that climate change is due to Global Warming?
Snowstorms paralyse China

January 30, 2008

Over 4.5 lakh Chinese troops and paramilitary personnel have spread out to regions battered by snowstorms, which showed no signs of let up on Wednesday as the nation faced its harshest winter in five decades.
With millions of people across half of China reeling under the worst snowfall in five decades, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has ordered its troops to go all out to bring succour to the affected by joining hands with local authorities.

Photobucket
This car showroom is among 100,000 buildings that have collapsed. Another 400,000 are reported to have been damaged.


Nearly 158,000 PLA troops and the Chinese People Armed Police and 303,000 paramilitary personnel have joined in the 'anti snow battle', official Xinhua news agency reported as the death toll due to heavy snowfall rose to 49.

Photobucket
The snowstorms began on 10 January and have affected 80 million people across 14 provinces.



The heavy snow and sleet, which have paralysed transport, caused power blackouts and stranded millions of passengers heading home for a family reunion during the coming Spring Festival, the China meteorological administration said in Beijing [Images].

Impeded supplies have fuelled price rise in the affected regions, where authorities are coming under increasing strain in coping with the effects of the disaster and keeping the people calm, particularly millions of stranded passengers whose most-cherished once a year trip on Chinese New Year is facing uncertainty.

The Spring Festival sees one of the world's biggest annual mass migrations, bringing authorities under cracking pressure even under normal circumstances. Provinces in central and northwest China have reported more losses from heavy snow, Xinhua said. In northwestern Shaanxi province alone, 1,200 people were reportedly ill or injured in snow-related incidents, it said.

Photobucket
Winter swimmers walk past a stranded ship on the beach of the Yangtze River in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.


The snow has affected more than 77.86 million people in 14 provinces, including Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rushed to Hunan province to oversee disaster relief work and President Hu Jintao chaired a meeting of the Communist Party of China's Political Bureau Central Committee on relief efforts on Tuesday, reflecting the magnitude of the grimness of the situation.

The storm that went through the North East has created a storm surge on Lake Erie. Here is an article from the Buffalo, NY newspaper about the storm that went through this morning. They say it is the worst storm in years as far as extrems. They also refer to a seiche that is interesting to read about.

Buffalo News


Here is the gauge readings at Buffalo and Toledo that show the seiche where it lowered the water in Toledo and raised it in Buffalo. Note the drop at Toledo which is at the Western edge of Lake Erie and the rise at Buffalo on the Eastern Edge.

Toledo Gauge

Buffalo Gauge

I believe that CO2 Global Warming alarmist data is flawed. They use mostly weather data from the last century and cherry-pick what fits their agenda. Consensus not science fact.
Geology provides us with temp and CO2 data from million o f years ago.


CO2 follows temp by about 100 years in recent and all over the map in previous centuries. Our present temps are not the highest than previous centuries. In fact it was a lot higher during ice ages. During simular temps CO2 was twice as high as now. Are we deficient in CO2 now? 80% of the increase of co2 IN THE LAST 100 YEARS occured during the 1940's and early 50's. Only a few 10ths of a degree since.
CO2 is a very small amount in our air and is hard to believe that it would be that critical.
CO2 is heavier than air and oxygen and mostly concentrated on the surface. The amount in the upper atmosphere is a lot less. Look how thin oxygen is at 10,000 feet, CO2 is a lot thinner at higher elevations. CO2 is an invisible gas. It's used as a fire extinguiser
because it sinks to the ground and surrpresses the oxygen. How could the plants use CO2 if it was lighter. Try putting it in a ballon, it will sink not float as helium does. This is also how oceans absorb it because it sinks. It only rises if wind blows it up.
It will take more than the Inconsistant Truth to convince me that CO2 is the problem.




2 Charts are in my photo
="http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/n/NorthPix/58.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/n/NorthPix/59.gif
What happened to fact? Has it gotten lost in assumption? When did fact become just an extension of one's belief? What happened to the scientific process? Controls? And verification? It seems these days that "fact" is marred by contradiction of other "facts!" Some examples related to the current GW issue:

1. Temp inaccuracy. Satellites have only been up recording temperatures a few years. There is no credible record of temps prior. At least not credible in that equal controls were used to determine accurate readings. Yet, the IPCC has based their entire conclusions on these inaccurate temperatures. Is it "fact" that temps have risen? There's no compelling answer.

2. Ice melt. In Dr. Master's own blog header he states the NW Passage has been open for the first time in recorded history. Yet, in another post there are several accounts just in the past 100 years where the passage has been successfully navigated. Fact? What and who does one believe?

3. ACO2. There is claim that man-made CO2 is causing temperatures to rise. Yet, there is also data that shows rising temperatures do not correlate with rising CO2, but actually correlate with cycles of the sun. Data also supports that there have been times in Earth's atmospheric history when CO2 has been considerably higher than now. Where are the facts? Obviously, that thwarts the idea of "man-made" CO2 caused by the industrial age imperiling the planet.

4. Warming/Cooling. Only a few years ago scientists said the planet was in danger of a new approaching ice age. What happened to that? Did they just ignore the facts, but now, have suddenly found them? Now we're going to catch the planet on fire and civilization will struggle to exist, unless of course, we tax the developed nations. That one is hard to ingest. Sunspot cycle #24 has begun and there is now a forecast that temperatures may plummet again for the next 50 years. So, which is it? Where are the facts? The "jelly-of-the-month" club seemingly has more stability and credibility than science has at predicting the Earth's future.

5. IPCC conclusions. Now, there's a body of fact! (not) Their conclusions have been based on faulty surface temperature readings. While some of its members still proclaim the "science is in" - other members who participated in the initial process, have since refuted the conclusions as wrong and manipulated to fit the desired outcome. Clearly, the science is not in. Yet, the IPCC and the UN wants to place CO2 restrictions and tax the developed countries in order to save the planet. And, in the same solution, allows developing countries to continue to produce CO2 unchecked and untaxed. So, again, there is no "fact." Their own solution contradicts their conclusions.

-- What has happened to fact? Has "assumption" been substituted in order to validate lack of knowledge and credible science? In the drive to find answers has science abandoned the true process of scientific research based on controls and verifiability? An assumption is only a guess. When did assumption replace fact? Sure, there are many unknowns; but, to interject guessing into conclusions in a way to force a specific outcome and use as a platform for redistributing wealth and control is, in my opinion, unconscionable! And the "fear tactics" being used is even more ridiculous.
-- This good Earth has been around for a very long time. It has seen and endured just about every climatic weather pattern ever imagined. Some have been catastrophic and man had little or nothing to do with the weather pattern. CO2 is a tiny player in the greenhouse gas scenario anyway. Whether man produces more is moot in comparison to CO2 levels the planet has endured in the past. The fact is some warming would be a good thing. More people die each year from cold temperatures than warm temperatures. Agriculture would likely be more productive with warmer temperatures, and energy needs such as for heating would find some relief.
-- Fact? It seems to me that fact is really just a matter of opinion, especially when the so-called professionals can't agree on what is happening. Fact appears now to be a matter of discernment, rather than real scientifically tried and proven processes. The new important and politically correct word is "assumption." And, we've all heard what happens when we (ass-u-me) something! It's time for science to stop covering its _ss and raise an intelligent head. Otherwise, science will lose any credibility it has past enjoyed and impressed us.


..."Every fact is related on one side to sensation, and, on the other, to morals. The game of thought is, on the appearance of one of these two sides, to find the other: given the upper, to find the under side."


"Every known fact in natural science was divined by the presentiment of somebody, before it was actually verified."


-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

45. GulfScotsman 5:51 PM GMT on January 30,
Be honest about the POLITICS of this new religion. Open your hearts... ( and wallets ) to the gardians not of wisdom... but another dose of snake oil,... how about being honest and salute P.T. Barnum.....


....uuuuummmm, that sums it up fairly well I think! Good post GSM!
Another fact from Earth Geology is that during the ice ages the north or outh pole had no ice. In Antartica scientists have drilled into a forest far under the ice. If the ice that is melting is 5000 yrs olds it must be that before that the ice was not there.
hey folks :) good news I am now part of the CoCoRaHS network.

NJ-PS-2 is my station number :)

Oh happy days :)
I agree we shoudn't pollute the earth and should have alternative energy not oil dependance. In 1974 we started reducing emissions from cars. Today cars have very little emissions. Pre 74 cars had high level of NOX, Carbon monoxide,etc. Todays cars are mostly water vapor and small amount of CO2. The added mileage is a plus. (I used to test
auto emissions in the 70-80'S)
I just object to untruths by politicians that CO2 is the cause just to further their agenga and force it down our throats. They are not scientists and are getting rich by promoting the agenda.

Here is the secret hope of humanity. One day, the politicians and the generals will sit down and break bread with the common man across the false borders of nations - and stay the hand of revenge before plunging into the abyss of war. That those who hate, would look into the eyes of the innocent children they are about to kill - before pulling the pin on the explosives device - and see the eyes of their own children looking back at them.

Gulf, too bad we cant send you to the Middle East as an ambassador.
53. Bonedog 6:29 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
hey folks :) good news I am now part of the CoCoRaHS network.

NJ-PS-2 is my station number :)

Oh happy days :)



Hey Bone, how you been?
Pray tell what you just said???
BEIJING, China (CNN) -- China's worst winter in more than half a century showed no signs of abating Wednesday as forecasters told citizens to brace for three more days of snow and sleet.

Meanwhile, China's Civil Affairs Ministry said the cost of the storms to the Chinese economy had reached $4.5 billion.


AHHHH! WHERE DID MY GLOBAL WARMING GO!!!!
27. sullivanweather 12:02 AM PST on January 30, 2008
sp,

Pretty much...

I read the national headlines coming from the southern California fires. Most of them initially reported these fires to be result of global warming.

"Warming climate contributes to socal fires"
"Socal wildfires, is global warming to blame"


sullivan, you say "result of", but, the first of the headlines you list says "contributes to" and the second is a question "is...?"
I say again, there's nothing wrong with asking questions and considering possibilities. It's human nature and it's how we learn new things.

Also, the cause of a fire has absolutely nothing to do with how many acres are burned. That is determined by fuel availability and how accessible the areas are to firefighters and the resources available to fight the fire. In other words, those fires that were started by arson would have burned in the same way had they been started by lightning.
BTW, I'd like to see an article that lists which fires were caused by arson. I know most were started by human activity but didn't realize that it was through illegal activity.

As a sidenote, and this is just a friendly suggestion, you may want to work on your mental filters - turn off your tv for a few days and give some thought as to what to listen to and what to ignore as hype and ratings grabs. Media outlets are in the business of making money through advertising dollars and they spend the most time on those subjects that garner the most attention. If you're watching it, you're telling them that that's what you want to see, and they'll give you more of the same. You can rail all you like against that reality but you won't change it by continuing to give them your attention and then blogging endlessly about how useless they are :)
Tropical Cyclone Gene looks powerful..and aewsome....look at the outflow to the west and south

afternoon to all
Good afternoon all! I have been wondering if anyone could provide me with a link to a site that has great IR satellite imagery of the Tropical Atlantic that I could place on my website. All the loops that I want to place on my site are JAVA script and cannot be copied into my website. Thanks in advance.

42. lawntonlookers 12:03 PM EST on January 30, 2008
The storm that went through the North East has created a storm surge on Lake Erie. Here is an article from the Buffalo, NY newspaper about the storm that went through this morning. They say it is the worst storm in years as far as extrems. They also refer to a seiche that is interesting to read about.




•Public works crews in the city are dealing with toppled trees, flooding, malfunctioning traffic lights, wind-blown garbage totes and other wind-related woes.


Garbage Totes??

Is that like a designer Trash Can?

Was a good read though.
thanks Storm. NJ doesnt go live until Feb 2nd so I have a little bit of time till my info posts.

Yankee I have been good and Storm explained what you asked for.

Basically its a bunch of folks around the country reporting their conditions to the NWS so they have more coverage then just a few stations. Finally NJ became part of the network.
Tropical Cyclone Gene Update 1

Issued 2000 UTC Jan 30 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gene is located near 19S-171.8E, moving towards the southwest. Estimated surface winds are near 65 knots and minimum central pressure is near 976 mb. Wind shear is 15 knots and sea surface temperatures are 28C.

Microwave imagery from 1705 UTC revealed an embedded eye within the cold cloud cover (CCC) which was used to determine the center of storm along with infrared enhanced loops. If one were to look at the image I posted, one would see that the center is embedded within the white and colder cloud tops, which gave a Dvorak rating of CI 5.0. Model expected T number is more at CI 4.0 or 65 knots, 976 mb. Infrared satellite imagery showed an impressive tropical cyclone with an embedded eye as stated before. A trough within the upper westerlies of the South Pacific is enhancing the cyclone outflow channel. This is allowing the system to ventilate and for the warm-core (thermal walls) to grow substantially. Global models show the cyclone maintaining intensity while moving towards the southwest then southeast.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 15P GENE.65kts-974mb-189S-1724E






Someone asked: What is the significance of the warm core?

The stronger the warm core, the stronger the wall clouds in eye-wall or center of the storm. These thermals enhanced lift and vertical velocity (speed) of air flowing into the storm. The more lift and speed, the higher the moist air will go and then heat is then release through condensation to warm the upper levels, or the warm core. Moreover, that happens within a loop called a positive feedback loop until wind shear (which causes the thermal wall cloud to slant and be disrupted and become inefficient*) or any other of the inhibiting factors breaks it and causes the storm to weaken.

* The storm looses heat by strong upper level winds....much like ur warm body walking within a cold breeze.
I just object to untruths by politicians that CO2 is the cause just to further their agenga and force it down our throats. They are not scientists and are getting rich by promoting the agenda

Exactly who is "getting rich" by pursuing or encouraging public understanding and mitigation of the effects of anthropogenic climate change? I mean, we all know that the fastest way to become a multi-millionaire in the United States is to get a Ph.D. in atmoshperic physics and become a research scientist in the Alaskan Arctic, but other than that? And I'd like to personally congratulate all of these politicians acknowledging the scientific consensus on the contribution of CO2 and other industrial emissions on the climate system, but I can't seem to find them.

Hmmm. That's odd.

Seriously, though--I'd like to know. I'm in the field myself, and I'd sure like to know where all this money is. Seems like everyone else already knows...
sp,

That so-called 'connection' between the Socal fires and global warming was shoved down the throats of the American people for almost a week before investigators came foward with their findings as to the cause of the fires, which were mostly arson.

The point I'm trying to make is that most people read the news and take it at face value i.e. global warming must be to blame for every fire, heat wave, cold snap, winter storm, drought, flood, tornado, hurricane, etc.

Name any extreme weather event making news headlines and global warming is usually mentioned.

the cause of a fire has absolutely nothing to do with how many acres are burned

That is a ridiculous statement.

Arsonist aren't stupid. They KNOW that if a fire is set in a particular spot (base of a canyon), during Santa Ana winds (blowing 70-100mph), with a lot of dry brush ahead of them they'll get a big fire.

If the fire was started due to natrual causes then it's purely chance how much it burns, since the fire starts in a random spot whereas an arsonist will choose the most vulnerable spot.


Oh, BTW, those 'headlines' I mentioned may or may not have been the actual headlines...I cannot remember them word for word, but if you want me to go dig up some news articles from those fires....
The cause of wildfires cannot be global warming (unless I have missed something and ambient surface temperatures have lately reached the spontaneous combustion point of dry brush). The fact that the wildfires in the West have been increasingly intense and large (in terms of acerage) in the past few decades, however, can (and has been) correlated to changes in rainfall distribution and temperature changes in both spatial and temporal domains. Actually...climate change very well could increase the frequency of fires in the West--as vegetation becomes drier and dry lightning events may potentially become more frequent, natural fire starts will increase in number. The SoCal fires in late 2007 were all human-caused, accidental or arson, but that is largely beside the point. I do agree that the news media, as a general rule, tends to exaggerate connections (or in some cases, make patently false connections) between individual extreme weather events and climate change. This only serves to undermine the legitimate connections that have been made between anthropogenic forcing on the climate system and an increase in the frequency and range of extreme weather events on the whole. No individual event can be linked to climate change (like Katrina, or the SoCal fires), but the sum total of all such events can, indeed, be connected.
66. StormW 8:35 PM GMT on January 30, 2008 He's speaking of the Commumity Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow network.

67. Bonedog 8:58 PM GMT on January 30, 2008Yankee I have been good and Storm explained what you asked for.

Basically its a bunch of folks around the country reporting their conditions to the NWS so they have more coverage then just a few stations. Finally NJ became part of the network.

Thanks Storm & Bone, I wouldn't think there would much use for snow reporting here in SE Texas.
Also, to anyone who was offended by my fire & brimstone post, I am truly sorry! Was just trying to put a lil' twist on the convo. Sorry
This only serves to undermine the legitimate connections that have been made between anthropogenic forcing on the climate system

Couldn't have said that better myself.

This rush to blame every weather event on global warming is what's clouding the picture.

On the other hand...

No individual event can be linked to climate change (like Katrina, or the SoCal fires), but the sum total of all such events can, indeed, be connected

That is wrong...


Climate change is a change in climate.
If the southeast turns from a sub-tropical climate to a tropical climate, for example, that's climate change.

If southern california changes from a mediterranean climate to a sub-tropical climate, that's climate change.

If New Orleans enters an active phase of hurricane frequency, that's NOT climate change, just extreme weather. Hurricanes are already part of the climate is the point I'm trying to make.

British researchers say they have shown that a half-degree Celsius temperature rise in the Atlantic ocean can fuel a 40 percent increase in hurricanes.

Link
77. Inyo
Most research on southern California fires indicate that the reason fire frequency is increasing is not climate change but in fact a proliferation of non-native annual plants such as mustard and ripgut brome. Although chaparral is quite flammable, it generally would not naturally burn more than once every 30 to 60 years. We have had fires burning over the same place last year that burned 3 to 5 years ago... which would not happen in intact chaparral. However, these areas are now infested with mustard, brome, and other weeds not native to the area. Many of them were actually seeded in the 50s to 'reduce erosion after fires' which they are not successful in doing because they have shallow roots. Also, unlike chaparral, these weeds can burn EVERY YEAR and the more they spread, the more fires we will see, because in addition to encouraging fires to spread, they themselves thrive after fires.

Likewise, because of cheatgrass and buffelgrass, large areas of desert that basically never burned are now starting to burn. It is a big problem and will be blamed on global warming, but it is another environmental problem - introduced weeds - that is the main culprit.

In the pine forest, on the other hand, climate change (rising snow levels) is probably a major factor in all the fires, along with inappropriate logging practices and fire supression in the 20th century.

if you are interested in this subject please see this blog entry I wrote about it in october
Climate change is a change in climate.
If the southeast turns from a sub-tropical climate to a tropical climate, for example, that's climate change.


This is true...

If southern california changes from a mediterranean climate to a sub-tropical climate, that's climate change.


Well, yes...

If New Orleans enters an active phase of hurricane frequency, that's NOT climate change, just extreme weather. Hurricanes are already part of the climate is the point I'm trying to make.


Here is a finer point, though. The frequency of hurricane strikes on New Orleans (or any other point on the globe)is not a reliable measure of any aspect of climate. The rate of change of the total energy of all tropical cyclone activity globally (and perhaps in specific basins) smoothed over a period of years or decades, however, would be significant. I use this example only because you mentioned Katrina; actually, tropical cyclonic energy is not a good way to examine changes in climate because of dramatic potential for subseasonal and inter-decadal fluctuations in both frequency and intensity of storms. It actually appears that a warmer planet may decrease the FREQUENCY of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin but increase significantly the potential strength of the storms that do develop (higher heat content of warmer water). Here, again, is another reason why it is also fallacious to use the converse of this argument (that a decrease in hurricane activity is indicative of a cooler regime).

More importantly, though, "climate" is nothing more than the weather through time. If the number of "extreme" events increases over different temporal and spatial scales, this is indeed evidence that the climate has changed. Obviously, a particular event (or even a short series of events over several years) can never be tied to long-term climate changes (though it seems that the popular media does not understand this). This allows those looking to discredit the scientific consensus to critisize, with some merit, these dramatic postulations put forth by those who really have no business in making such assertions. Those directly in the field, however, do not make these types of connections--that last week's heatwave was a result of global warming, etc.. These ridiculous and detrimental statements are reserved for local network affiliate television "meteorologists" to boldly spew during the 6 o'clock news hour.
80. Inyo
If southern california changes from a mediterranean climate to a sub-tropical climate, that's climate change.

yes but if that happened, that would mean so-cal would get hurricanes.Six hurricanes hitting Los Angeles in 10 years would indeed be a sign of a climate change.
Thunder,

Again, a very good summary.

I would have to point out, tough, that our period of reliable record kieeping is too short to be able to make such assertions about tropical cyclone activity and it's connection to global warming.

For example, a recent study was published in Nature (I wish I had a subscription) that says the period of 1995-2005 had 40% more hurricanes due to higher SST's (or something along those lines). I've already read several articles about this and I say to myself, "There's no way that one can compare the noise of a decade of hurricane seasons to a multi-decadal signal"

BTW - You mentioned Katrina, I was simply quoting you LOL
I ordered Rough Guide to Climate Change for our library :)
Can some send me an email or leave a post here?

Why is that President Bush not running for a 3rd year? Thanks
W456, he can't do that lol. Blame George Washington.
456, our president are limited to 2-four year terms.
It's actually because of the republicans that were mad after FDR won 4 terms to office.

They amended (22nd amendment) the constitution putting term limits (2) on the presidency.
In the case of George "Dubba" Bush, this is a good thing!
86. sullivanweather 1:25 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
It's actually because of the republicans that were mad after FDR won 4 terms to office.

They amended (22nd amendment) the constitution putting term limits (2) on the presidency.


I thought it was because George Washington was only in office for 8 years before he retired. Maybe i need to brush up on my history lol.
Sully is correct. George Washington established a non-binding precedent for retiring after 2 terms, which was an unwritten but generally understood rule. FDR was elected for 4 terms, and Republicans (because they could never beat him) and some Democrats (who didn't like the informal 2 term rule being violated) pushed through the 22nd amendment, which was adopted in 1951. Link
Well in the US, the term limit is 2 terms. Even if he could, it probably wouldn't happen.
In post 13 of this blog, I pointed out an error. In post 19 Lat expounded on that error and others have commented on it. I'm sure that Dr.M reads this blog on occasion, if he is putting out faulty information he ought to correct it. If he feels there is another explanation he ought to present it. I have been called out for misstatements and have had to eat crow and apologize and I'm a nobody.

Dr. M is the founder of this blog, many, myself included look up to him as an expert in meteorology. As such he has an obligation to respond to an obvious misrepresentation of facts or explain his understanding of the stated facts.

Whether or not he was just quoting the book or if that is his opinion is irrelevant, he chose that statement to post and he strongly endorses the book.

It is obvious that the Weather Underground has taken a position on AGW and is acting as advocates for their beliefs. That is fine, it is their Website they have every right to. I am grateful that they allow those of us who are skeptical of this belief to comment and point out other information without any censorship.

It is totally up to them whether they feel it necessary to respond to questions about statements they make regarding this or any other issue. In fact I feel uncomfortable bringing the subject up, having been with WU since its inception, but Dr. M brought up the topic. The feature on Climate Change does not permit comment, Ricky's blog which can be quite energetic, lol, does but Dr. M brought it up here and I for one would like to know what he means by-
"and discusses the major climate change event so far this century--the record melting of the Arctic's sea ice that peaked in September 2007, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history".

JER
Jer,

I think the misconception lies in whether the passage was navigable or whether or not it has been 'ice-free'.

I'm sure the northwest passage was navigable due to low ice concentrations in prior times, however, recently the passage was completely ice-free.

Many of the prior expeditions to navigate the northwest passage were multi-year endeavours. The difference this time was due to the ice-free conditons, the passage could have been made in a few days as opposed to many months or a couple of years.

I think Dr.Masters could have been a bit more specific as to what he meant by "opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history."

What he most likely meant was the passage had 'open water' which is a term used to describe a particular sea-ice condition (<10% coverage)
Thanks Sully

You are probably correct, however Nils Adolf Erik Nordenskjold made the passage from Norway to the Bering Sea in 1878. I would point out that he did not have modern navigation instruments (GPS) and was on a steamship. Until 1979 nobody has the faintest idea whether or not the passage has been completely ice free or not. Although I did read somewhere recently that they have developed a way to determine Arctic Ice melting history from sea sediment and are analyzing it. I'll have to look it up

If as the Greenland Ice Sheets melt they find Viking farms, bold statements ought to be at least qualified with a degree of humility. Like maybe "we think"

But thanks
JER
Here is a tropical/climate change thought to chew on.

Published in Eos, the American Geophysical Union monthly newsletter by Chris Landsea of NHC/HRD.

Before the launch of our first optical satellites, an average of %75 of all known hurricanes were landfalling hurricanes. After such time (1966, I think) only %59 of all known hurricanes hit land. This makes the obvious point that we do not know about a large number of hurricanes that did not hit a populated area of land before we had satellites.

Postulating that we have had some greater number of storms, record seasons, or more numerous storms of some level of intensity and attributable to anything other than improved observation systems is pure nonsense. While all of that is possible, clear, verifiable, and successfully measured it is not. Assuming that we know all there is to know about the Atlantic TC history is simply faulty.
the ice has decreased its coverage of nw passage in the greastest extend since records the most open water ever seen its so simple
Ah ha. I know the AGU will not be happy (they do not allow public access to anything), but Chris Landsea is sharing the work on the HDR ftp server
I know the AGU will not be happy (they do not allow public access to anything)

Doesn't one simply need one of their expensive subscriptions?

Doesn't one simply need one of their expensive subscriptions?

Right, I meant to say FREE public access in that.
the ice has decreased its coverage of nw passage in the greastest extend since records the most open water ever seen its so simple

Yes it is simple

I just posted the lowest golf score in my recorded history, I just started keeping golf scores Yesterday. :)

Interesting Observation

Satellite temperature measurement makes immensely more sense - it has full coverage (except for the poles) and is not subject to local biases. Can anyone name one single reason why the scientific community does not use the satellite temps as the standard EXCEPT that the Can answer (ie lower temperature increases) is not the one they want? Consider the parallel example of measurement of arctic ice area. My sense is that before satellites, we got some measurements of arctic ice extent from fixed observation stations and ship reports, but these were spotty and unreliable. Now satellites make this measurement consistent and complete. Would anyone argue to ignore the satellite data for spotty surface observations? No, but this is exactly what the entire climate community seems to do for temperature, just because it gives them an answer that is not catastrophic enough.

There are four leading worldwide data sets. You could at least use the average of these but no, you choose to use the one (GISS) which is the biggest outlier. And then you accuse skeptics of bias.

Yeah, I know, there are still some technical issues in the satellite measurements. But these are tiny biases compared to those in the patchy surface temperature record. I took the Tucson station photographs at surfacestation.org. I have seen with my own eyes how bad a surface temperature record (used by the GISS from a site run by the University of Arizona) can be temperature measurement in the middle of a growing city located right in an asphalt parking lot.


Love the Tuscon pics, especially the Est 1867 zoom in on the sign. Do you think that station has had any warming temperature trends since 1867? Like asphalt or car radiators? Maybe?
A quick note on the GISS...

It should be noted that they don't always show the highest anomalies. A quick search of HADCRU, NCDC, UAH, RSS, etc. datasets will show this.
I posted a pic from California, I'm sure you have seen it, the station is five feet from a burn barrel, lol and 25' from a tennis court built in 1980. The temperature graph since 1980 is interesting to say the least.
Hey Sully,
What is the explanation for 2007, only GISS going up while the rest go down, is there an explanation?

JER
There's gaps in the data for other datasets.

I found this the other day on another blog site which shows the gaps in the HADCRU compared to the GISS.

It should be noted that the GISS dataset extrapolates the temperature for the polar regions, so those areas filled in are really just estimates...
A stalled out frontal boundary in Florida for this time of year? Guess it's what La Nina's do...As longs the humidities comfortable on either side I don't mind.

I hope a fog accident doesn't happen again...
Thanks to all who reply. I was wondering if he was quiting cause he could not take it any more.
Forecast for Mt.Rainier is quite snowy...emphasis on 'quite'

Overnight: Periods of snow. Low around 5. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 21 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

Thursday: Periods of snow showers. Temperature falling to around 3 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Thursday Night: Periods of snow showers. Low around -7. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 22 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Friday: Periods of snow showers. High near 14. Breezy, with a west wind between 18 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -6. West wind between 13 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Periods of snow. High near -4. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Periods of snow. Low around -11. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Periods of snow showers. Cloudy and cold, with a high near -1.

Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -3.

Monday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 10.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15.

Tuesday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 3.
Morning all.

Still relatively cool here. I've been needing my jacket all the time except for the height of the day - 11:30 to 3:30.

Still, I'm glad I'm not at Mt Rainier . . . - 11!

Have a good one.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH IN
WAA ZONE INVOF NW GULF OF MEXICO SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FARTHER NW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG TX PANHANDLE UPR VORT. VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR NOW
OVER WW REGION EXPECTED TO ERODE STEADILY NWD THROUGH
MIDDAY...INCREASING CHANCES THAT STORMS IN THE NW GULF AND SE TX
WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NE INTO LA.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND CONSIDERABLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...RESULTING SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
HIGH WIND AND HAIL.
Good morning Storm!




Good morning all! Here we go again with another severe weather event developing in the Southeast. Good news for the drought, bad news for homes and businesses. Stay safe anyone in the path of this system. It looks like this storm system has just begun to gear up.

BTW Does anyone have a nice color IR satellite loop of the Tropical Atlantic that I could post on my website for hurricane season? If it is a JAVA script loop, I cannot place it in my website. Thanks in advance.
For the record, Florida is having the first normal wet winter in years. If we get afternoon showers this spring, like we did 20 years ago, I will be extatic.

On the flip side, we still have the brown scummy layer obscuring our sunsets that we didn't have.

As for Climate change, global weather is not acting normally. I point to the vanishing glaciers and say to the deniers... duh.
News alwas goes after fear... more duh.
Corporations are motivated by profit, so if there is a little fear to motivate the public to stop green house gasses or get China off coal and more environmentally concious, I'm all for it. On the other hand we do need to start comming up with methods to combat the effects of extreme weather and keep folks safe.
Wow,
Africa looks to be getting hit pretty good.
Hopefully that storm front heading to florida will hit late in the day and not mess up Kid's day at the fair.
Send snow to Finland.
Check.
Good morning vortfix!

Nice radar loop.



That squall line is starting to thicken up pretty good as seen on that regional radar Storm.

Glad to see the SPC up and at em early today.
Yeah, it's starting to look nasty.

Gee....I can hardly wait till we get some heating going......yuck!
Could be a busy weather day along the Upper Gulf Coast.
I sure hope those in the path of this severe weather today and tonight have read this. Please stay informed throughout the day:



POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH
ANY DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST NEAR TRACK OF SFC WAVE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF LA/MS AND
AL...WHERE MODEST SFC HEATING COULD ASSIST DESTABILIZATION.
Storm,
Will these satellite loops automatically update themselves? Thanks.
a lot of moisture and a lot of energy with that system in the south,expect some serious weathter with that front
Morning NE!


Photobucket

Morning all :~)

Looks like a rough day in the SE and a pile of snow further N for some.
morning vort,hows things
morning storm,and thanks.
morning! boy what a day we had here yesterday. I was posting on Sullivanweather's blog in and out throughout the day... the Lake had a 10 ft storm surge with the hurricane force wind gusts and blizzard-like conditions...it was crazy!
I have emailed radar loops to folks, and since it is a link... they keep looking at my old mail for up to date weather months later.
That is freaky in a good way.
132. JRRP
what happen with the low in the central atlantic ?????
Afternoon All!

Where you at Biff, North Fla? I wish we were getting that normal wet winter you speak of down here in SFL. To date we're 2.3 inches below normal for the month in West Palm. More dry warm weather to come for the next week.
Do you know where I can find satellite pictures/loops ir or visible for Northern Europe, and Norway? I have only found this:

"Tuva" storm north of Scottland.


hey folks. glad to see everyone is fine.

looks like a ice storm for my area late tonight :( Going to be one hell of a morning commute at 4am. Usually driving before the salters and plows get out.

Anyways I hope everyone is fine and if anyone wants to talk just shoot me an email.
The warm front has retrograded and is now on-shore:


Photobucket

Just in case this is useful to some of you, I just got this in my email (Note that the storm detailed is merely an EXAMPLE!):

"-------- Original Message --------

415
NOUS41 KWBC 311934
PNSWSH

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 08-03
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
235 PM HST DAY JAN 31 2008

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: JAMES WEYMAN
METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE /WFO/ HONOLULU HAWAII

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY TO FIX /TCS/
PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2008

EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2008...WFO HONOLULU HAWAII WILL CHANGE THE
FORMAT OF THE TCS PRODUCTS FROM A NARRATIVE FORMAT TO A
TABULAR FORMAT.

EXAMPLE: OLD FORMAT

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF LOCATED NEAR 22.2S 176.2W AT 05/1038 UTC
BASED ON MTSAT IR SECTOR AND ANIMATION. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
60 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE WIND SPEED 45 KT. MOVEMENT
ESTIMATED TOWARD 140 DEG AT 15 KT OVER PAST 12 HRS.

T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12 HRS

REMARKS...CURVED BAND WRAPPING 0.6 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT
OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT BASED ON DT AND 6 HR CONSTRAINTS.

EXAMPLE: NEW FORMAT

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF

B. 05/1038Z

C. 22.2S

D. 176.2W

E. MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12 HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BAND WRAPPING 0.6 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A
DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT BASED ON DT AND 6 HR
CONSTRAINTS.

ADDITIONALLY THE GEOGRAPHIC AREA COVERED BY THE TCS PRODUCTS WILL
EXPAND. THE CURRENT AREA IS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 180 AND
140W. THE WESTERN BOUNDARY WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE AREA NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR FROM 160E TO 140W.

THESE CHANGES AFFECT THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
WMO HEADERAWIPS IDENTIFIER
TXPN40 PHFOTCSCP
TXPS40 PHFOTCSSP

IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT:

JAMES WEYMAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE HONOLULU HI
2525 CORREA ROAD SUITE 250
HONOLULU HAWAII 96822-2219
EMAIL: JAMES.WEYMAN@NOAA.GOV
PHONE: 808-973-5272

NWS NATIONAL SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

"
Great to see ya atmo...Hope 08 is going great....

Circle-There are several imagery sites here. Looks like the Eumetsat is your best bet. Once you select the Eumetsat link, click on the number 2 box at the top, 2 should be the region you are looking for.

And welcome aboard :~)
duh, guess your image is already from Eumetsat...Should have looked a little closer...lol@myself

Try the NEMOC Rota site.

Global Hydrology & Climate Data Center link also has some coverage of that area.

Both of those are on that same link I posted below.
Looks like the Missisippi Valley and Northern Gulf coast will be in for a windy/t-storm afternoon and evening...........Tallahassee NWS is talking about the possibility of 40-50 knot lower level shear (ouch)..

.SHORT TERM...VERY INTERESTING FCST OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER TX HEADS GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING
MORE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR CWA VERY CLOSE TO
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR
TO BE QUITE STRONG AS THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE APPROACHES. THE 12
UTC RUN OF THE GFS NOW SHOWS 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS OVER
MUCH OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AND 50-60 KTS OVER SE AL AND
SW GA...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL 0-1 KM HELICITIES GREATER THAN 300
M2/S2 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND GREATER THAN 400 M2/S2 OVER MUCH OF
SE AL AND SW GA. SHEAR VALUES THIS STRONG OBVIOUSLY HEIGHTEN OUR
CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE...
track mark 21n57.4w CCC detected
(counter clockwise cirulation)
Thank you StormJ, very helpful! You've got a great site! I hadn't actually been at the Eumet site earlier as I found that pic in a newspaper :)
Circle

StormJ is right, EUMETSAT is the source you need. However the NOAA water vapor loop for the North-East Atlantic gets you close to the action.
LittleMul, thank you for the NOAA link!!
Didn't know that the NOAA had info so far east *s*
Just what I need, being in the middle of Europe.
A good article on the facts about the North West Passage for anyone interested, posted a couple excerpts

Bad reporting about the Northwest Passage issue.

You get the drift. The world's media is saying variations on the same theme. Google news shows almost 1,300 outlets reporting this story. The basic claim is that the Passage is passable today and this is the first time in recorded history. Some mention that the recorded history is since 1978, while others make it sound like this is the first since human history began, a much longer period and a far more dramatic claim. Either claim is false. As noted the BBC reported the exact same story in 2000.


We should also look at the claim that the ice has always been so thick that the Northwest Passage has been historically impassable. Most attempts by explorers to find this passage happened during the Little Ice Age. I would think they would have had great difficulty making it through the Passage under ice age conditions. But are they saying that after the Little Ice Age ended that no one has made it through the Passage? They seem to be.

The problem is that ships have sailed through the Northwest Passage before today and long before a police patrol did it in 2000. It has happened several times. The historically impassable route has been passed through numerous times for over a century now.


AND

Regardless of that, the history of ships traveling through the Northwest Passage has been well documented. This is not conjecture or guessing. It is a historical fact. We%u2019ve had small wooden ships do it, luxury tourist boats, a solo voyage, and numerous other incidents, all of which I have documented here.

The only reason I can think of that explains why journalists, who repeated the false claims of this story, didn't bother to do any research is because these claims have been linked to global warming. They don't want to be called deniers by the warming alarmists. Global warming to the Left is what terrorism is to the Right. It is an issue that is meant to be so scary that one is supposed to close down their mind, repeat the slogans, and obey.
Vortfix: Isn't a "retrograding warm front"---a cold front?
Thanks Starwoman

This link to the World Sunlight Map is updated every 3 hours with current satellite weather images. (The clock shows Pacific Standard Time).
Thanks LMul and Circle

The GHCC site and the Rota site that can be accessed from that link I posted are both pretty good views of that region as well. I think the Eumetsat and the Rota site update most often though. I think all three of those sites are a little closer view then that NOAA WV, although that is a nice large scale view.
Thanks LittleMul und SormJunky!

Great links!

SJ: you've got so many links on your site - I often don't know where to start. But in the meantime I've got a nice list in my bookmarks, thanks to you all.

Have a nice day :-)
Re #147: Spamming that all over the place, eh jer? If you followed the links in that piece and looked at the descriptions of the conditions during the prior passages, the truth would become obvious. Was it only a good article in your view because it tells you what you want to hear?

Let's have a look at the very first claim in the article:

The BBC is quoted as saying last September that "the most direct shipping route from Europe to Asia is fully clear of ice for the first time since records began." This is claimed to conflict with a 2000 article's statement that "a Canadian police patrol boat has completed a voyage through the fabled Northwest Passage without encountering any pack ice."

Does a lack of pack ice mean a lack of any ice, and is it even the same route under discussion? On the latter point, have a look at the route maps here and compare them with this satellite map of the 2007 minimum. See the new and much more navigable route?
153. Donna
I just started reading this book, got it from the library, and *love* it. Thank you very much for reviewing it and bringing it to my attention.

Learning a lot, even though I thought i knew a bunch already! ;)

best
Donna Jones