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The Poor and the Earth Are Crying: The Pope's Encyclical on Climate Change

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 1:01 PM GMT on June 18, 2015

"Earth herself, burdened and laid waste, is among the most abandoned and maltreated of our poor; she groans in travail."

One of the largest and oldest institutions on Earth--the Catholic Church--weighed in with these words today on the need to address the threat climate change poses to our common home. Pope Francis officially released his third papal encyclical, “Laudato Sii” (Be Praised), from the Vatican on Thursday. The 180-page encyclical is an enormous milestone in climate change awareness, and is sure to influence the critical December 2015 meeting in Paris to negotiate a new global binding treaty to limit emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.


Figure 1. Pope Francis holds an olive tree at the Vatican on September 1, 2014. Image credit: VINCENZO PINTO/AFP/Getty Images.

Papal encyclicals are among the highest-level documents produced by the Catholic Church. Each one focuses on a topic of keen importance to the Church itself or to society at large, and this time around the Pope specifically addresses “every person who inhabits this planet.” It is the seventh encyclical of the 21st century and the first one ever devoted to an environmental issue. In it, the Pope frequently invokes the life of his namesake, Saint Francis of Assisi, the patron saint of all those who study ecology and a champion for the poor and abandoned. The emphasis is not on climate science itself: the Pope agrees that rising global temperatures are primarily due to fossil fuel use, which is consistent with the conclusions of numerous national science societies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Pope’s main concern is with the ethical and moral facets of the problem, and our responsibility as stewards of Earth to deal with it. Here are some of the main themes put forth:
 
-- The book of Genesis tells us to "have dominion over the earth", which would seem to favor savage exploitation of nature by domineering and destructive humans. This is not a correct interpretation of the Bible, as Genesis also tells us to "till and keep" the garden of the world.
 
-- What we are facing is primarily a spiritual crisis: "The misuse of creation begins when we no longer recognize any higher instance than ourselves, when we see nothing else but ourselves. For human beings to destroy the biological diversity of God’s creation; for human beings to degrade the integrity of the earth by causing changes in its climate, by stripping the earth of its natural forests or destroying its wetlands; for human beings to contaminate the earth’s waters, its land, its air, and its life–these are sins. For to commit a crime against the natural world is a sin against ourselves and a sin against God." He argues strongly that we can work together to solve this spiritual crisis through right action, and urges us to "replace consumption with sacrifice, greed with generosity, wastefulness with a spirit of sharing."

-- Humans are mostly responsible for global warming: “A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system. In recent decades this warming has been accompanied by a constant rise in the sea level and, it would appear, by an increase of extreme weather events, even if a scientifically determinable cause cannot be assigned to each particular phenomenon. Humanity is called to recognize the need for changes of lifestyle, production and consumption, in order to combat this warming or at least the human causes which produce or aggravate it. It is true that there are other factors (such as volcanic activity, variations in the earth’s orbit and axis, the solar cycle), yet a number of scientific studies indicate that most global warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and others) released mainly as a result of human activity.”

-- While technology has brought tremendous progress, "our immense technological development has not been accompanied by a development in human responsibility, values and conscience."

-- Technology based on fossil fuels--particularly coal, but also oil and to an extent, natural gas--must be replaced progressively and without delay: "There is an urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced, for example, substituting for fossil fuels and developing sources of renewable energy."
 
-- The rich, highly industrialized countries that have contributed the greatest emissions of greenhouse gases have the greatest responsibility to contribute to solution of the problems that they have caused. The poor countries, who have contributed little to the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, will suffer the greatest harm, since they do not have the resources to adapt.
 
-- "Obsession with a consumerist lifestyle, above all when few people are capable of maintaining it, can only lead to violence and mutual destruction." People should change their lifestyles to consume less, and use the power of their purchases to positively affect the world: "purchasing is always a moral--and not simply economic act."
 
-- Action is being delayed by rich special interests that profit from the current situation: "The failure of global summits on the environment make it plain that our politics are subject to technology and finance. There are too many special interests, and economic interests easily end up trumping the common good and manipulating information so that their own plans will not be affected. The alliance between the economy and technology ends up sidelining anything unrelated to its immediate interests. Consequently the most one can expect is superficial rhetoric, sporadic acts of philanthropy and perfunctory expressions of concern for the environment, whereas any genuine attempt by groups within society to introduce change is viewed as a nuisance based on romantic illusions or an obstacle to be circumvented."

The encylical concludes with this powerful prayer:
 
The poor and the earth are crying out.
O Lord, seize us with your power and light,
help us to protect all life,
to prepare for a better future,
for the coming of your Kingdom
of justice, peace, love and beauty.
Praise be to you!
Amen

 
How will the encyclical be received?
Given that there are more than 1.2 billion Catholics worldwide, this encyclical has the potential to directly influence a large segment of the world’s population. Some 20% of the U.S. population is Catholic (the United States ranks among the five countries with the most Catholics), so the encyclical should resonate widely here. The broad popularity of Pope Francis--about 7 in 10 Americans have a favorable view of him--will add to the encyclical’s reach.
 
As explained in this Q&A from the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Science: “While encyclicals do not compel Catholics to believe and act in accordance with what is said, the expectation is that all Catholics (and it is hoped all people of good will) will use the teaching as guidance for their life style and moral commitments. For theologians, both clerical and lay, relevant encyclicals have traditionally informed their scholarship and continue to do so.”
 
Francis is not the first Pope to lay claim to environmental awareness. The Yale Q&A cites several precedents, including the 1972 address “A Hospitable Earth for Future Generations,” presented by Pope Paul VI at the Stockholm Conference on the Environment. In his book Why We Disagree About Climate Change, climate scientist Mike Hulme asserts that “all of the world’s institutionalized faiths are strong on the duty of care for the created world. There is a reverence for life--a sacredness--that is central to nearly all religious writings, even if expressed in different ways.”
 
Surveys that compare attitudes on the environment across U.S. religious affiliations do show some major differences. But political affiliation may play the more crucial role, even for those within a particular sect. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found sharp divisions among Catholics on climate change, largely mirroring a broader partisan divide. The climate change cause has likely become more divisive than it otherwise would have been, in part, because its most famous proponent has been a politician, Al Gore. Even before the encyclical’s release, 2016 presidential candidate Rick Santorum (a Catholic) urged the Pope to “leave science to the scientists” and avoid “controversial scientific theories,” an illustration of how politics can trump religious affiliation when it comes to the highly polarized world of climate change. Katharine Hayhoe--who plays a major role in the U.S. discussion, as a person of faith and as a climate scientist based at Texas Tech University--weighed in on the intersection of climate, politics, and religion in recent essays for the websites Prairie Fire and The Conversation. In response to the question “Will evangelicals care (about the encyclical)?”, Hayhoe responds in the affirmative: “It’s because the theology on which we need to agree to care about climate change is so simple. Evangelical or Catholic, Episcopal or Apostolic, we all believe God created the world, even if we’re still arguing over the process by which that was accomplished.”
 
Today’s encyclical will add to the drumbeat building toward the crucial UN Conference of the Parties 21 meeting this December in Paris, where the successor treaty to the Kyoto protocol is expected to take shape. Between now and then, the Pope will continue bringing his message to the world at large, including the U.S. Congress in an address scheduled for September.
 
WU climate blogger Ricky Rood has more thoughts on the significance of this week’s encyclical.
 
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You. Re-posting my earlier comment from this morning:

On the Pope's Encyclical, it will not impact the world's evangelicals, but he is siding with the science. As such, and with 1 billion Catholics worldwide, the head of a major church is telling their followers that global warming and climate change is an important issue that impacts everyone around the globe. That is a good move as Catholics also vote and will hopefully lean towards-on politicians and policymakers in their respective countries that will support climate change related legislation and policies.

In terms of the tragedy in South Carolina last evening, we know from history that the horrible things that men do to one another outweigh what Mother Nature does; She does not discriminate.
Oh boy....should be a busy day for the mods.
It will be interesting to see if the Vatican and ALL the catholic churches stop using fossil fuels...
Quoting 2. tampabaymatt:

Oh boy....should be a busy day for the mods.
maybe maybe not we will see
...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVANCING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 96.4W
ABOUT 80 MILES...129 KM...SE OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH HEALTHY RAINBAND STRUCTURES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CENTER WHERE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ARE VERY SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS WHERE SOME OF THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF BILL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER CAMPBELL/SANTORELLI

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 18/0900Z 34.5N 96.4W
12HR VT 18/1800Z 35.6N 95.7W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 19/0600Z 36.1N 94.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 19/1800Z 36.8N 93.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 20/0600Z 37.5N 90.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72HR VT 21/0600Z...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
It's hard to group Catholics into a certain political ideology when their backgrounds are so different. The majority of them are of Irish and Italian decent as well as Latino, the latter of which are generally more socially conservative than the other two (a big reason why California failed to legalize gay marriage a few years back). And again that's a trend, my grandmother is first generation Irish and she didn't vote for Kennedy in 1960 like mostly everyone else in her parish. Also more Catholic students are enrolled in public schools these days than in the past which probably helps to sway climate change beliefs to the left.
Quoting 3. yoboi:

It will be interesting to see if the Vatican and ALL the catholic churches stop using fossil fuels...

Why should that even be a criteria? Do doctors have to all stop consuming alcohol, sugar, salt and fats in order to let their patients know that overuse of them will negatively impact their health?

Everything in moderation is a good thing. But expecting one group to eliminate fossil fuel use is absurd.

Maybe someday we'll all be on renewables, but that day is not here yet.
Quoting 3. yoboi:

It will be interesting to see if the Vatican and ALL the catholic churches stop using fossil fuels...
A) There's only one Catholic Church.

B) The Pope intentionally used the term "drastically reduced", not "stopped". Big difference. No one but the most radical among us has insisted on immediately ceasing the burning of all fossil fuel; one would need to have a pretty poor understanding of things to even pretend that's possible.
Quoting 8. LAbonbon:


Why should that even be a criteria? Do doctors have to all stop consuming alcohol, sugar, salt and fats in order to let their patients know that overuse of them will negatively impact their health?

Everything in moderation is a good thing. But expecting one group to eliminate fossil fuel use is absurd.

Maybe someday we'll all be on renewables, but that day is not here yet.


I do have a problem with the same doctor telling me that smoking is bad for my health and at the same time blowing smoke in my face...
Quoting 9. Neapolitan:

A) There's only one Catholic Church.

B) The Pope intentionally used the term "drastically reduced", not "stopped". Big difference. No one but the most radical among us has insisted on immediately ceasing the burning of all fossil fuel; one would need to have a pretty poor understanding of things to even pretend that's possible.


Well by observing the hundreds upon hundreds of churches have yet to see the first solar panel attached....
Would not be surprise if the atlantic season becomes active after all. SST in the atlantic is showing signs of increasing while the heat content in the Epac has stabilized at this moment. there Epac season could be a repetition of the over hyped 2013 atlantic season. also there is more moisture in the upper levels in the atlantic than that of 2014. watch it.
Will also note, that issue of the poorer countries vs. the more developed ones is a real issue for the future. Prior to the more modern nation-state era, with delineated national borders, our ancestors often migrated to "greener pastures" so to speak (and even with the normal seasons) for more tolerable regions to settle with abundances of fresh water and better agricultural locations. In this modern nation-state era, and with a large world population, people cannot "legally" cross national borders so if agriculture or water availability is severely hampered in any particular country or region (as the result of persistent drought as an example), we either let people potentially die in another part of the world, or marshal resources to provide humanitarian aid. In the US, when the dust bowl era occurred, many of the affected people in the mid-west migrated further west to California (Grapes of Wrath) but within the same albeit very large nation-state. But what happens if you live in a smaller country where weather events make your home unsustainable in term of agriculture and water resources?

That will be a huge challenge for us in the future in terms of how we act when a localized crisis emerges.
Quoting 6. win1gamegiantsplease:

It's hard to group Catholics into a certain political ideology when their backgrounds are so different. The majority of them are of Irish and Italian decent as well as Latino, the latter of which are generally more socially conservative than the other two (a big reason why California failed to legalize gay marriage a few years back). And again that's a trend, my grandmother is first generation Irish and she didn't vote for Kennedy in 1960 like mostly everyone else in her parish. Also more Catholic students are enrolled in public schools these days than in the past which probably helps to sway climate change beliefs to the left.

I don't know about the 'majority' of Catholics being of a certain background. It depends where you live. Growing up in New England, I had friends who were Catholic, who were of English, Irish, Scottish, Italian, Canadian/French Canadian, Polish, German, French, Armenian, etc., descent. A good portion of my family by marriage is Catholic (SE New Englanders, all Portuguese descent, as well as Cajuns). And regarding public schools, again I think it depends where. Some states have a very high enrollment in public schools, regardless of religious background. The 'left' aspect is more political, not a product of public schools.

Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note, that issue of the poorer countries vs. the more developed ones is a real issue for the future. Prior to the more modern nation-state era, with delineated national borders, our ancestors often migrated to "greener pastures" so to speak (and even with the normal seasons) for more tolerable regions to settle with abundances of fresh water and better agricultural locations. In this modern nation-state era, and with a large world population, people cannot "legally" cross national borders so if agriculture or water availability is severely hampered in any particular country or region (as the result of persistent drought as an example), we either let people potentially die in another part of the world, or marshal resources to provide humanitarian aid. In the US, when the dust bowl era occurred, many of the affected people in the mid-west migrated further west to California (Grapes of Wrath) but within the same albeit very large nation-state. But what happens if you live in a smaller country where weather events make your home unsustainable in term of agriculture and water resources?

That will be a huge challenge for us in the future in terms of how we act when a localized crisis emerges.
Absolutely. As we've seen throughout history, the milk of human kindness doesn't flow so freely when everyone is struggling. Social and racial tolerance evaporates; understanding and humanitarian aid disappear. Imagine you're the leader of a nation beset by drought and civil unrest; no matter how much you'd like to help, what are the chances you'll willingly open your borders to the tens of millions of starving and desperate and dying people in the even-worse-off nation next to yours?

Things are going to get very, very ugly, I'm afraid.
Quoting 13. stoormfury:

also there is more moisture in the upper levels in the atlantic than that of 2014. watch it.


Not in the MDR. Models are showing extremely high pressure setting up shop in the MDR also. So, that part of the atlantic seems shut down at least in the near to mid term.
The MCS and TD Bill interaction is going to be fascinating to witness.

Quoting 3. yoboi:

It will be interesting to see if the Vatican and ALL the catholic churches stop using fossil fuels...


So please tell me, if the Pope does not honestly feel that anthropogenic climate change exists and is an issue, why did he write this papal encyclical? Is the all powerful climate change lobby (with all their money they get from.... um... planting trees I guess?) paying him off?
A large chunk of the Atlantic looks pretty dry :

Quoting 6. win1gamegiantsplease:

It's hard to group Catholics into a certain political ideology when their backgrounds are so different. The majority of them are of Irish and Italian decent as well as Latino, the latter of which are generally more socially conservative than the other two (a big reason why California failed to legalize gay marriage a few years back). And again that's a trend, my grandmother is first generation Irish and she didn't vote for Kennedy in 1960 like mostly everyone else in her parish. Also more Catholic students are enrolled in public schools these days than in the past which probably helps to sway climate change beliefs to the left.
This applies to Catholics in the U.S. for sure, but probably less so to other countries that are not such "melting pots". On the other hand, it seems that the Church ought to provide for its members a common background of moral and spiritual values, which is what the Pope is addressing. It will be interesting to see if these (supposedly) mutual moral and spiritual values can trump the differing political ideologies, and also to see how many non-Catholics will find common ground with the Church's moral and spiritual values in this area, even if they do not agree with the Church's teachings on other issues.
Quoting 12. yoboi:



Well by observing the hundreds upon hundreds of churches have yet to see the first solar panel attached....

Good point. I hadn't thought about that before. You have pointed out an opportunity in which many, including perhaps yourself, can become involved.
24. jpsb
Dr. Baliunas, was the Deputy Director of the Mount Wilson Observatory.


Dr. Baliunas on Weather Cooking

Quoting 12. yoboi:



Well by observing the hundreds upon hundreds of churches have yet to see the first solar panel attached....
I guess you missed the earlier discussion of solar panels and alternative energy at the Vatican. It make take some time for this practice to trickle down to individual churches, but then the "trickle-down" effect is one of those things conservatives believe in, isn't it?
Quoting 19. pipelines:



So please tell me, if the Pope does not honestly feel that anthropogenic climate change exists and is an issue, why did he write this papal encyclical? Is the all powerful climate change lobby (with all their money they get from.... um... planting trees I guess?) paying him off?


Action has always proving to be better than words in the biblical world... If you are serious about the world reducing fossil fuel consumption how about Installing solar panels at every Parish/Church for starters....
Pretty big Catholic church with a bunch of solar panels in San Diego. Good climate for them too



Link
Quoting 12. yoboi:



Well by observing the hundreds upon hundreds of churches have yet to see the first solar panel attached....


Maybe today will be the start of change.
Quoting 24. jpsb:

Dr. Baliunas, was the Deputy Director of the Mount Wilson Observatory.


Dr. Baliunas on Weather Cooking


Today's blog topic is the Pope's encyclical vis-a-vis climate change; how is a seven-year-old video from a discredited sidekick to the disgraced Willie Soon, and a scientist who's best known for co-authoring a famously withdrawn study ("strongly criticized by numerous scientists for its methodology and for its misuse of data from previously published studies"), relevant?
Quoting 19. pipelines:



So please tell me, if the Pope does not honestly feel that anthropogenic climate change exists and is an issue, why did he write this papal encyclical? Is the all powerful climate change lobby (with all their money they get from.... um... planting trees I guess?) paying him off?
Well, for those who inhabit the netherworld of places like WTFUWT, apparently that's the answer. I wouldn't recommend visiting that blog soon after eating (or ever, for that matter) but Hotwhopper reports on the idiocy. At a distance it would be funny if it weren't so pathetic.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/06/from-lewandows ky-with-love-climate.html

(WU doesn't let me embed links from my iPad)
Quoting 26. yoboi:



Action has always proving to be better than words in the biblical world... If you are serious about the world reducing fossil fuel consumption how about Installing solar panels at every Parish/Church for starters....


See post #27. There you go.....
Quoting 18. MahFL:

The MCS and TD Bill interaction is going to be fascinating to witness.


It's going to be a cage match battle to the death! Actually, I think it will be like a wave breaking on shore. Cool while it lasts but then it's gone.
Quoting 29. Neapolitan:

Today's blog topic is the Pope's encyclical vis-a-vis climate change; how is a seven-year-old video from a discredited sidekick to the disgraced Willie Soon, and a scientist who's most famous for co-authoring a famously withdrawn study, relevant?
Because, you know..... oh, look, a squirrel.
Quoting 31. Bucsboltsfan:



See post #27. There you go.....


The Vatican has enough money to have every Parish/Church installed with solar panels by the end of the month... We will see how serious they are about reducing fossil fuel consumption....
Quoting 21. FLwolverine:

This applies to Catholics in the U.S. for sure, but probably less so to other countries that are not such "melting pots". On the other hand, it seems that the Church ought to provide for its members a common background of moral and spiritual values, which is what the Pope is addressing. It will be interesting to see if these (supposedly) mutual moral and spiritual values can trump the differing political ideologies, and also to see how many non-Catholics will find common ground with the Church's moral and spiritual values in this area, even if they do not agree with the Church's teachings on other issues.
Religion has been corrupted enough by humans without getting the politicians involved. It stands to reason however, that if the church has the power to shift people toward a cleaner future, it will be better for all life.
Thanks Dr. M and Mr. H. Credit the Pope for trying at least. He's a special guy. This message will certainly be heard among Catholics, of which I am one. And hopefully it is heard well beyond the Catholic Church. The next step is the hardest though: Going from powerful words to powerful action. Hopefully the Decmeber meeting in Paris provides some of that.
Quoting 26. yoboi:



Action has always proving to be better than words in the biblical world... If you are serious about the world reducing fossil fuel consumption how about Installing solar panels at every Parish/Church for starters....

Between parishes, schools and hospitals, there are approximately 355,000 facilities worldwide (Link). That's billions and billions of dollars. And FWIW, I did a quick Google search, and there are churches (Catholic and non) with solar installed.

What you are saying is in order to even listen or consider what the Pope has to say, there needs to be an investment of billions of dollars to upgrade ALL of their facilities. Then somehow you'd be willing to listen?

I doubt that. You'd throw up another hurdle, or test that must be met. It's easy to do, though, isn't it? Throw out pithy comments instead of actually reading his words and thinking about the implications.
Quoting 26. yoboi:



Action has always proving to be better than words in the biblical world... If you are serious about the world reducing fossil fuel consumption how about Installing solar panels at every Parish/Church for starters....


The Vatican has already installed solar panels, but that is just a drop in the ocean in terms of emissions. He doesn't control the power sources of hundreds of thousands of individual churches, but what this papal encyclical does is provide a stance of the Vatican on the issue and hopefully those in charge of those churches will start doing things such to reduce emissions, which includes installing solar panels on the churches themselves but hopefully also going much further than that.

Thanks doks.

I got a Flash Flood Watch. YAHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086 -087-100-107>112-
114-182030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.A.0002.150619T1200Z-150620T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-UNION IL-JOHNSON-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-
CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-N EW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...JONESBORO...VIEN NA...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
416 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 57.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SERVE TO
AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING ALREADY IN PROGRESS...AND MAY FORCE
ADDITIONAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE COMING DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.


Quoting 34. yoboi:



The Vatican has enough money to have every Parish/Church installed with solar panels by the end of the month... We will see how serious they are about reducing fossil fuel consumption....


Can you post their financials please? Thank you.
Quoting 34. yoboi:



The Vatican has enough money to have every Parish/Church installed with solar panels by the end of the month... We will see how serious they are about reducing fossil fuel consumption....


End of the month!? Not by the end of the year, or the next year or the year after that. You are obviously not an engineer as the system design alone for the biggest churches would take at least a year. Not to mention purchasing that much solar equipment on the open market all at once would cause a huge supply shortage and drive the price through the roof.
Quoting 18. MahFL:

The MCS and TD Bill interaction is going to be fascinating to witness.




Welcome to the battle between TD Bill and the MCS in Nebraska\Kansas! In Oklahoma, we have TD Bill, with 25mph winds and the power to flood the Midwest with heavy rains. In Nebraska\Kansas, we have an MCD producing winds of 30-40mph and short bursts of heavy rainfall. Place your bets! It's gonna be a Big one!

62901IL: TD Bill
Quoting 36. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. M and Mr. H. Credit the Pope for trying at least. He's a special guy. This message will certainly be heard among Catholics...
Not all of them, apparently. In fact, many of the Catholics seeking to be the GOP nominee for President--Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Christie, and so on--have long expressed denialist leanings, beholden as they are to deep-pocketed fossil fuel interests and party ideology. Expect a lot of avoidance, double-talk, fancy footwork--and not a lot of soul-searching leading to real change.

Talk about an irresistible force running up against an immovable object...
Quoting 2. tampabaymatt:

Oh boy....should be a busy day for the mods.
A good day to remember one of the main admonitions of ClimateBall(TM): play the ball, not the man (or woman).

For those unfamiliar with the game: https://climateball.wordpress.com/about/
45. jpsb
Quoting 29. Neapolitan:

Today's blog topic is the Pope's encyclical vis-a-vis climate change; how is a seven-year-old video from a discredited sidekick to the disgraced Willie Soon, and a scientist who's best known for co-authoring a famously withdrawn study ("strongly criticized by numerous scientists for its methodology and for its misuse of data from previously published studies"), relevant?


I gather you did not like what she has to say.



People on this blog will dismiss what the Pope says 99.9% of the time. But, hey, he just said something you agree with! What a wise man! (until tomorrow when normal programming resumes).

Quoting 41. tlawson48:



End of the month!? Not by the end of the year, or the next year or the year after that. You are obviously not an engineer as the system design alone for the biggest churches would take at least a year. Not to mention purchasing that much solar equipment on the open market all at once would cause a huge supply shortage and drive the price through the roof.


He obviously doesn't understand how the Catholic Church operates.
Quoting 37. LAbonbon:


Between parishes, schools and hospitals, there are approximately 355,000 facilities worldwide (Link). That's billions and billions of dollars. And FWIW, I did a quick Google search, and there are churches (Catholic and non) with solar installed.

What you are saying is in order to even listen or consider what the Pope has to say, there needs to be an investment of billions of dollars to upgrade ALL of their facilities. Then somehow you'd be willing to listen?

I doubt that. You'd throw up another hurdle, or test that must be met. It's easy to do, though, isn't it? Throw out pithy comments instead of actually reading his words and thinking about the implications.


No it goes much deeper....When Jesus walked amongst the people preaching about sin He did not turn around and then commit sin.... Parable Do as I say and Do as I do..... Nowadays the message is Do as I say not as I do....
Quoting 46. BobinTampa:

People on this blog will dismiss what the Pope says 99.9% of the time. But, hey, he just said something you agree with! What a wise man! (until tomorrow when normal programming resumes).




Incorrect, I agree with virtually everything Pope Francis speaks about on non religious issues, he's a great, forward thinking leader of the Catholic Church. If only American Christians had such a leader.
Quoting 45. jpsb:



I gather you did not like what she has to say.
It doesn't matter if I 'don't like" what she has to say. What matters is that where the issue of climate change is concerned, she's ranked right up down there with the thoroughly disgraced and discredited Wille Soon as far as credibility is concerned. But her profit-over-people credentials are pretty impeccable, though; she also thinks CFCs weren't harming the ozone layer, so the Montreal Protocol was an unnecessary intrusion of government into the free market.

Sigh...

Anyway, again: what does a discredited denialist have to do with the Pope's encyclical?
Quoting 49. pipelines:



Incorrect, I agree with virtually everything Pope Francis speaks about on non religious issues, he's a great, forward thinking leader of the Catholic Church. If only American Christians had such a leader.


I also agree with most of what the current Pope says. He is a down to earth person who tries very hard to get people to stop yelling at each other for five minutes and just think about what they are saying. He is trying to take the Catholic Church from a position of hard and fast, one size fits all, answer on every topic and instead point out that while people may not like or agree with the many issues that afflict this world, those issues don't go away just because we want them to.
Quoting 52. Torito:




Nothing...

I don't want to sound like a downcaster or something else-caster, but, this is going to be the most boring season ever.
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Pretty big Catholic church with a bunch of solar panels in San Diego. Good climate for them too...


They took tax payers money though to offset the costs, how charitable of them.
Quoting 53. 62901IL:



Nothing...

I don't want to sound like a downcaster or something else-caster, but, this is going to be the most boring season ever.


I dunno, TD Bill continues to be pretty exciting.
56. vis0
Trough man might be busy over EurAsia hanging out with корыто женщина **Jerry Springer Audience ooos and Ahaaaa**. Yet he has sent his sidekick The blob wonder to ...uh... kick Bill in his side.

What next?

Stay Tuned...


PS as to the blogs topic, that goes for ANY religion/BELIEF that has a "higher power" based on (UNCONDITIONAL) LOVE, once that LOVE is turned to anything other than UNCONDITIONAL love (as to the carnal way of thinking, lets start with respect), you then have chaos raising its ugly head. Respect, This goes for any side.

LISTEN AND RESPECT the flood warnings
Quoting 46. BobinTampa:

People on this blog will dismiss what the Pope says 99.9% of the time. But, hey, he just said something you agree with! What a wise man! (until tomorrow when normal programming resumes).




Yep , I have seen many Christians of a number of different denominations mocked and insulted on here , just because they believe in a supreme being .

Quoting 55. MahFL:



I dunno, TD Bill continues to be pretty exciting.


Well, you got me there. But I was talking about the rest of the season Outside of Bill.
Quoting 56. vis0:

Trough man might be busy over EurAsia hanging out with %u043A%u043E%u0440%u044B%u0442%u043E %u0436%u0435%u043D%u0449%u0438%u043D%u0430 **Jerry Springer Audience ooos and Ahaaaa**. Yet he has sent his sidekick The blob wonder to ...uh... kick Bill in his side.

What next?

Stay Tuned...


PS as to the blogs topic, that goes for ANY religion/BELIEF that has a "higher power" based on (UNCONDITIONAL) LOVE, once that LOVE is turned to anything other than UNCONDITIONAL love (as to the carnal way of thinking, lets start with respect), you then have chaos raising its ugly head. Respect, This goes for any side.

LISTEN AND RESPECT the flood warnings


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!

I wish I could plus this 9001 times.
Viva Le Papa'

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015


GAZ036>039-049>051-058>062-069>076-079>086-090>09 8-102>113-181800-
/O.NEW.KFFC.HT.Y.0003.150618T1600Z-150619T0000Z/
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-MORGAN-GREENE-TAL IAFERRO-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-J ONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWF ORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SC HLEY-MACON-PEACH-
HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER -SUMTER-DOOLY-
CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGO MERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...
SWAINSBORO...WARNER ROBINS...DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...
CORDELE...VIDALIA
325 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA...GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT BENNING TO THOMASTON TO ATHENS.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...105-107

* IMPACTS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT
ILLNESSES IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AT LEAST
105 DEGREES AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM AND
STAY OUT OF DIRECT SUNSHINE. REMEMBER...THE
ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...AND PEOPLE WITH HEART CONDITIONS ARE MOST
AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT. FRIENDS...RELATIVES...
AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

&&

$$
I shall be back.
Quoting 53. 62901IL:



Nothing...

I don't want to sound like a downcaster or something else-caster, but, this is going to be the most boring season ever.
well we now look for homegrown storms until the African dry air coming across the atlantic eases up and the tropical waves can moisten and build..migt be August before that happens,we'll see
Quoting 11. yoboi:



I do have a problem with the same doctor telling me that smoking is bad for my health and at the same time blowing smoke in my face...


You commenting on blowing smoke is like Smokie the bear commenting on Tropical systems ,yo'
Quoting 53. 62901IL:



Nothing...

I don't want to sound like a downcaster or something else-caster, but, this is going to be the most boring season ever.


Even if this wasn't forecasted to be a slow season, it's June 18th. Usually there is not much going on in the tropics this early into the season. If anything, the season has started out pretty fast with 2 landfalling systems already.
Quoting 57. VR46L:



Yep , I have seen many Christians of a number of different denominations mocked and insulted on here , just because they believe in a supreme being .


Oddly enough, I've not seen anyone here either mocked or insulted for their religious beliefs; if you have, I hope you dutifully reported that to the mods. However, I *have* seen some challenge statements based on superstition and myth instead of logic and science. But asking an honest question in a science forum isn't mocking, nor is it an insult.
Quoting 38. pipelines:



The Vatican has already installed solar panels, but that is just a drop in the ocean in terms of emissions. He doesn't control the power sources of hundreds of thousands of individual churches, but what this papal encyclical does is provide a stance of the Vatican on the issue and hopefully those in charge of those churches will start doing things such to reduce emissions, which includes installing solar panels on the churches themselves but hopefully also going much further than that.


But it does set a good example. One day hopefully big oil will shift its attention to other means and solutions other than the ones used today . Saudi Arabia has spent billions on alternative energy investments, knowing that oil will not be the main source of the worlds energy needs. It wont be long before nuclear fusion begins to make itself known...My guess is 15 to 20 years...providing there are no world wars.
From Jan 1st to June 17th

151.1mm/6" of rain in St Barths (Meteo France station)
140mm/5.6" of rain in French St Martin (Meteo France station)

60% below average.
Quoting 66. Neapolitan:

Oddly enough, I've not seen anyone here either mocked or insulted for their religious beliefs; if you have, I hope you dutifully reported that to the mods. However, I *have* seen some challenge statements based on superstition and myth instead of logic and science. But asking an honest question in a science forum isn't mocking, nor is it an insult.


Hahahaha You are kidding right !We all saw what you used to have as an introduction on twitter .....
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLZ077-078-GMZ032>035-043-044-053>055-073-074-181 600-
MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT AND
BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT TO
THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...MARATHON...KEY WEST
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.NOW...
THROUGH NOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY AT SOME OF THE
LOWER KEYS COMMUNITIES.

$$

KN
EX Bill

Quoting 62. 62901IL:

I shall be back.


thou shalt it be

lol

sorry
Quoting 71. VR46L:

Bill


heat gonna fill him I was just gonna post an image
Views of the Vatican solar station





And to those who cannot do their own Homewerk here,

Your Ignorance is a choice.

Quoting 74. Patrap:

Views of the Vatican solar station






Ignorance is a choice.
And to those who cannot do their own Homewerk here.




we the human race
must be the miracle we all want too see
only rule
do not interfere with free will
...and the GFS is once again showing an active tropical wave affecting the Windward/Leeward Isands, that will NOT happen.

Most of you probably don't care about it, but the GFS forecasts are terrible in our region (Eastern Caribbean) since its last upgrade. Every time the model indicates a wetter pattern, it fails to materialize.

Not good at all.


Account must also be taken of the pollution
produced by residue, including dangerous waste
present in different areas. Each year hundreds of
millions of tons of waste are generated, much of
it non-biodegradable, highly toxic and radioactive,
from homes and businesses, from construction
and demolition sites, from clinical, electronic and
industrial sources. The earth, our home, is beginning to look more and more like an immense pile
of filth. In many parts of the planet, the elderly lament that once beautiful landscapes are now
covered with rubbish. Industrial waste and chemical products utilized in cities and agricultural areas
can lead to bioaccumulation in the organisms of
the local population, even when levels of toxins in
those places are low. Frequently no measures are
taken until after people’s health has been irreversibly affected.
22.  These problems are closely linked to a
throwaway culture which affects the excluded
just as it quickly reduces things to rubbish..
(Page 17)
Quoting 74. Patrap:

Views of the Vatican solar station






Ignorance is a choice.
And to those who cannot do their own Homewerk here.




221,740 parishes.... My Homework usually provides the global data....
Long way out but interesting..

“I don’t want the Pope to say 97%. It’s wrong, and it’s not trivial.”

- James L. Powell, director of the National Physical Sciences Consortium



How climate change deniers got it right — but very wrong

It turns out the climate change deniers were right: There isn’t 97% agreement among climate scientists. The real figure? It’s not lower, but actually higher.

The scientific “consensus” on climate change has gotten stronger, surging past the famous — and controversial — figure of 97% to more than 99.9%, according to a new study reviewed by msnbc.

James L. Powell, director of the National Physical Sciences Consortium, reviewed more than 24,000 peer-reviewed papers on global warming published in 2013 and 2014. Only five reject the reality of rising temperatures or the fact that human emissions are the cause, he found.

Read more >>
Quoting 78. yoboi:



221,740 parishes.... My Homework usually provides the global data....


Except when it doesn't, which we all know is "frequently".
Katharine Hayhoe: The pope’s encyclical on climate change – will evangelicals care?

[...]

So, will the Pope’s encyclical affect evangelicals?

For those who place their politics and ideology before their faith, it will not change many minds. As I discuss here, the roots of climate denial lie in our ideology rather than our faith.

But for any who take the Bible seriously, it must change minds. The encyclical is not proposing any new doctrine; it is not preaching any new message. It is simply reminding us that at the foundation of Christianity is one simple word: LOVE. And that word cannot fail to resonate in the hearts of all who believe, regardless of their denomination.

DanatGrandLakeOK's Wundercam in Afton, OK

...yet a number of scientific studies indicate that most global warming in
recent decades is due to the great concentration
of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrogen oxides and others) released mainly as a
result of human activity. Concentrated in the atmosphere, these gases do not allow the warmth
of the sun’s rays reflected by the earth to be dispersed in space. The problem is aggravated by
a model of development based on the intensive
use of fossil fuels, which is at the heart of the
worldwide energy system. Another determining
factor has been an increase in changed uses of
the soil, principally deforestation for agricultural
purposes.
24.  Warming has effects on the carbon cycle.
It creates a vicious circle which aggravates the
situation even more, affecting the availability of
essential resources like drinking water, energy
and agricultural production in warmer regions,
and leading to the extinction of part of the planet’s biodiversity. The melting in the polar ice caps
and in high altitude plains can lead to the dangerous release of methane gas, while the decomposition of frozen organic material can further
increase the emission of carbon dioxide. Things
are made worse by the loss of tropical forests
which would otherwise help to mitigate climate

Page 19
the kill shot approaches bill goes bye bye soon

RE: # 45. jpsb - Sallie Baliunas is an astrophysicist, not an atmospheric scientist. She is one of several folks who have tried to blame the sun for most of the variations in climate, even though there's no proven link between solar variability and climate, other than the rather small change in the "solar constant" which is associated with the sun spot cycle. They like to point to the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 as the cause of the so-called "Little Ice Age", but then stretch the period beginning in the 14th century and ending in the 19th. They want to ignore the proven link between volcanic activity and the periods of colder than usual weather, such as the impact of the 1259 event, the 1452-53 eruption of Kuwae, the 1815 eruption of Tambora and Krakatau in 1883.

Also, please note that she has no connection to Harvard. The Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics shares office space in a building on the Harvard campus. The Marshall Institute is not a scientific institute, but a political organization, pure and simple.


Quoting 79. hydrus:
Long way out but interesting..



Nice projected cool down for the Northeast.
One could think they were viewing late August.
nice flare up of convection within the ITCZ NEAR 7N 37W low amplitude tropical wave.
Quoting 69. VR46L:



Hahahaha You are kidding right !We all saw what you used to have as an introduction on twitter .....

A) This isn't Twitter; I thought we were talking about this forum;

B) You actually took the time to look me up on Twitter? I'm flattered! ;-)
Quoting 87. rmbjoe1954:



Nice projected cool down for the Northeast.

be nice
I could use some air conditioning with all the rains it keeps everything lush and green
Quoting 79. hydrus:

Long way out but interesting..




A cool down would certainly be nice. But that map is time stamped "valid at 06Z, Tue Jun 30, 2015". That would be 0200 Eastern Standard Time. What is the temp projection for 18Z on the same date?
Quoting 90. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
be nice I could use some air conditioning with all the rains it keeps every lush and green


Hi Keeper-

I just wished we could get some rain here in East Central coast of Florida. We have between 0 and 20% chance everyday through next week. A very long dry stretch for what should be the rainy season.
Jeff and Bob: Great post!
Charleston shooter arrested in Shelby, N. Carolina, via CBS news.
Quoting 53. 62901IL:



Nothing...

I don't want to sound like a downcaster or something else-caster, but, this is going to be the most boring season ever.
Yes I agree, I just hope it's not as boring as 1992.
It may have been posted, apologies if so, but NOAA has confirmed May 2015 was the warmest May on record. Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record. Dr. M usually does posts on these.

Link
Quoting 89. Neapolitan:

A) This isn't Twitter; I thought we were talking about this forum;

B) You actually took the time to look me up on Twitter? I'm flattered! ;-)


A friend of mine said to me to check it out :)
Quoting 97. MAweatherboy1:

It may have been posted, apologies if so, but NOAA has confirmed May 2015 was the warmest May on record. Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record. Dr. M usually does posts on these.

Link
Maybe the El Nino is helping with the Temps.
Quoting 97. MAweatherboy1:

It may have been posted, apologies if so, but NOAA has confirmed May 2015 was the warmest May on record. Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record. Dr. M usually does posts on these.

Link


Thanx,

also May CO2 was 403.70
101. yoboi
Quoting 97. MAweatherboy1:

It may have been posted, apologies if so, but NOAA has confirmed May 2015 was the warmest May on record. Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record. Dr. M usually does posts on these.

Link


Global ice doing ok....

Quoting 97. MAweatherboy1:

It may have been posted, apologies if so, but NOAA has confirmed May 2015 was the warmest May on record. Year to date (Jan-May) is also warmest on record. Dr. M usually does posts on these.

Link

The Heat Is On...


(Click for larger image)
104. MahFL
Quoting 71. VR46L:

EX Bill




It's not ex Bill, it's still officially TD Bill, as per the WPC.
The Mid-June plume of models have a consensus of Moderate El Nino peaking at +1.5C.

Global ICe.

LOL
# 101

U b phunny.

What is Global Ice breaux?

http://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com is yer graphie thingee source?

Phunny again.

This is not a Science site at all.

from the same page .

Categories:

AGW is a Cult


Epic fail, again,

"Gee"


glad you posted this.
1.2 billion people look to him for guidance.
Of those, how many truly believe our planet is going through climate change?
108. yoboi
Quoting 106. Patrap:

Global ICe.

LOL

U phunny.

WHat is Global Ice breaux?

http://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com is yer graphie thingee source?

Phunny again.

This is not a Science site at all.

from the same page .

Categories:

AGW is a Cult



Are you saying the chart is wrong??
109. yoboi
Quoting 107. WaterWitch11:

glad you posted this.
1.2 billion people look to him for guidance.
Of those, how many truly believe our planet is going through climate change?



When has the climate not changed??
Quoting 57. VR46L:



Yep , I have seen many Christians of a number of different denominations mocked and insulted on here , just because they believe in a supreme being .



When someone uses Bible verses to argue that AGW is false, yes, that is likely to get mocked here, for the same reason that Bible verses are not incorporated into the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc. But this is far different from mocking someone for believing in a deity.
Quoting 109. yoboi:



When has the climate not changed??


is that the best that you can do? if you want to start crap i suggest you do it with someone else.
112. VR46L
Quoting 104. MahFL:



It's not ex Bill, it's still officially TD Bill, as per the WPC.


doh

My Bad !


Please, do go on.

I dont see the authors jumping on yer insight here breaux.

Nor anyone else.

Please send them yer theory as to what you believe...

Cuz most here know it already.

Good luck.

pilam rapiunt

Quoting 103. Xandra:


The Heat Is On...


(Click for larger image)

Don't know 'bout you, but I find that departure of 0.87C (1.57F) kinda scary
Quoting 69. VR46L:



Hahahaha You are kidding right !We all saw what you used to have as an introduction on twitter .....

Oh you poor persecuted people. /s
116. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington.
D&T;;On mp4
IMAGERY:: Not a NOAA nor UofW product, though it uses 2 UofW & 1 NOAA via my 1990 filters.
SUBJECT:: is that a derecho or just a mini front interacting with "~BILL"

http://youtu.be/IpgmDJHdpQA(600x448)



Patrap ya kan add the (try to) K*** Bill music here
117. yoboi
Quoting 110. ACSeattle:


When someone uses Bible verses to argue that AGW is false, yes, that is likely to get mocked here, for the same reason that Bible verses are not incorporated into the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, etc. But this is far different from mocking someone for believing in a deity.


But no mocking when someone uses Bible verses to argue that AGW is true...
Quoting 66. Neapolitan:

Oddly enough, I've not seen anyone here either mocked or insulted for their religious beliefs; if you have, I hope you dutifully reported that to the mods. However, I *have* seen some challenge statements based on superstition and myth instead of logic and science. But asking an honest question in a science forum isn't mocking, nor is it an insult.


Hahaha I see what you did there. Very clever. Mocking and insulting while claiming that it doesn't happen. Nicely done.
Quoting 12. yoboi:



Well by observing the hundreds upon hundreds of churches have yet to see the first solar panel attached....


Vatican installs huge solar panel energy system - in 2008
Quoting 72. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



thou shalt it be

lol

sorry


And now I am back.

'Sup dudes?
Quoting 117. yoboi:



But no mocking when someone uses Bible verses to argue that AGW is true...

The Pope uses Bible verses to show that combating AGW is consistent with Biblical teachings. In no way is this using the Bible to prove that AGW is true.
Quoting 120. 62901IL:



And now I am back.

'Sup dudes?
nothing much just chilling
The battle is about to begin.....

125. jpsb
Quoting 103. Xandra:


The Heat Is On...


(Click for larger image)


Hottest may ever? I guess it depends on who you ask



Could not find an RSS graphic that included May 2015 but here are so RSS number on April 2015
Year Month Anomaly (oC)

2015 1 +0.3667
2015 2 +0.3268
2015 3 +0.2546
2015 4 +0.1745

Warmest Aprils (1979-2015)
(Warmer than seasonal norms - anomaly oC)

1998 +0.86

2010 +0.50

2005 +0.47

2002 +0.37

2001 +0.36

2012 +0.33

2003 + 0.29

2007 +0.29

2004 +0.26

2000 +0.26
In lurk mode during lunch watching the comments. Non-religious or scientific personal opinion/observation here; the Hardee's spicy "El Diablo" burger is pretty good..........................................
Well said gentlemen... and in SoCal:

Fire up near Big Bear which can be seen from space...
Quoting 130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Its coming for me in Maryland..
Quoting 125. jpsb:



Hottest may ever? I guess it depends on who you ask


Do you ever bring anything new or just the same tired arguments?

Satellite data does not show surface temperature.
Satellite data has issues through clouds, over high altitudes, and is some of the most heavily adjusted data in the world.
UAH version 6 is A) still in beta and B) has not been peer reviewed C) their code (and therefore exact adjustments) hs not been released

For someone who frequently goes on about unmediated data, you sure contradict yourself mightily with every posting of UAH.

Don't worry, jspb, the planet isn't warming one bit...the guys who signed a religious document saying that man can't have an impact said so and won't show us their code. Totally legit. /sarcasm
I was wondering how population growth was addressed in the encyclical Laudato Si's 180-pages and how the document addresses the 1968 encyclical by Paul VI, Humanae Vitae, which was, by-and-large, brought about by the early years of female oral contraceptive use. Far as I know, the official Vatican view still tells Catholics to cross their legs for contraception and makes any contraception other than surgery to cure a medical illness "a mortal sin" against "natural law."

I searched the document, Laudato Si, and found one mention of population growth...
"49. It needs to be said that, generally speaking, there is little in the way of clear awareness of problems which especially affect the excluded. Yet they are the majority of the planet's population, billions of people. These days, they are mentioned in international political and economic discussions, but one often has the impression that their problems are brought up as an afterthought, a question which gets added almost out of duty or in a tangential way, if not treated merely as collateral damage. Indeed, when all is said and done, they frequently remain at the bottom of the pile. This is due partly to the fact that many professionals, opinion makers, communications media and centres of power, being located in affluent urban areas, are far removed from the poor, with little direct contact with their problems. They live and reason from the comfortable position of a high level of development and a quality of life well beyond the reach of the majority of the world's population. This lack of physical contact and encounter, encouraged at times by the disintegration of our cities, can lead to a numbing of conscience and to tendentious analyses which neglect parts of reality. At times this attitude exists side by side with a "green" rhetoric. Today, however, we have to realize that a true ecological approach always becomes a social approach; it must integrate questions of justice in debates on the environment, so as to hear both the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor.

"50. Instead of resolving the problems of the poor and thinking of how the world can be different, some can only propose a reduction in the birth rate. At times, developing countries face forms of international pressure which make economic assistance contingent on certain policies of "reproductive health". Yet 'while it is true that an unequal distribution of the population and of available resources creates obstacles to development and a sustainable use of the environment, it must nonetheless be recognized that demographic growth is fully compatible with an integral and shared development'.[28] To blame population growth instead of extreme and selective consumerism on the part of some, is one way of refusing to face the issues. It is an attempt to legitimize the present model of distribution, where a minority believes that it has the right to consume in a way which can never be universalized, since the planet could not even contain the waste products of such consumption. Besides, we know that approximately a third of all food produced is discarded, and 'whenever food is thrown out it is as if it were stolen from the table of the poor'.[29] Still, attention needs to be paid to imbalances in population density, on both national and global levels, since a rise in consumption would lead to complex regional situations, as a result of the interplay between problems linked to environmental pollution, transport, waste treatment, loss of resources and quality of life."


Reference: Laudato Si, the entire document.
Quoting 131. Torito:




Its coming for me in Maryland..
tri state region up next
Quoting 134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

tri state region up next


Hope it stays together for us, we could use some rain.
Quoting 91. tlawson48:



A cool down would certainly be nice. But that map is time stamped "valid at 06Z, Tue Jun 30, 2015". That would be 0200 Eastern Standard Time. What is the temp projection for 18Z on the same date?
Not that a model 300 hours out is to believed anyway but, if I lived in Ohio still, not bad. In Alabama, still bad. Maybe slightly less incredibly bad though.

Quoting 128. PedleyCA:

Well said gentlemen... and in SoCal:

Fire up near Big Bear which can be seen from space...
At least the marine layer is making it inland. Might help the firefighters some. I don't know what it is about Big Bear but it seems to catch on fire regularly.
Quoting 124. Torito:

The battle is about to begin.....


It's not going to be much of a battle. Bill will swallow it whole and we'll never know it existed in about six hours.
Not that it really matters, but the Catholic Church is comprised of 24 autonomous churches. On spiritual and liturgical matters, these defer to Rome; but on matters of local governance and practice, not necessarily so much. So, the Pope's statements here are important, but it is a specious and woefully misleading argument to say Rome is hypocritical in its statements regarding the moral, ethical and spiritual implications of AGW and the use, abuse and wasting of natural resources just because each individual parish doesn't use solar panels to satisfy its own individual energy consumption.

So, those offering that misleading criticism haven't done their homework (as usual) and haven't provided complete data (as usual).
140. jpsb
Quoting 86. EricGreen:

RE: # 45. jpsb - Sallie Baliunas is an astrophysicist, not an atmospheric scientist. She is one of several folks who have tried to blame the sun for most of the variations in climate, even though there's no proven link between solar variability and climate, other than the rather small change in the "solar constant" which is associated with the sun spot cycle. They like to point to the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 as the cause of the so-called "Little Ice Age", but then stretch the period beginning in the 14th century and ending in the 19th. They want to ignore the proven link between volcanic activity and the periods of colder than usual weather, such as the impact of the 1259 event, the 1452-53 eruption of Kuwae, the 1815 eruption of Tambora and Krakatau in 1883.

Also, please note that she has no connection to Harvard. The Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics shares office space in a building on the Harvard campus. The Marshall Institute is not a scientific institute, but a political organization, pure and simple.





Every 100,000 years or so Earth gets a much colder climate and continental ice sheets cover Canada and northern USA, northern eurasia too. Then the Earth warms up for 10 or 12 thousands years in an interglacial. So something is not constant, and it is not orbital forcings. If it were orbital forcings the cycle would be 28,000 years not 100,000 years so something else is in play. Could it be the Sun? I don't know and neither does anyone else.

Her field is astrophysicist so she looking to the heavens to see if she can find something there that might be effecting climate here. Not at all surprising an astrophysicist would do that and the cosmic ray hypothesis seems plausible to me.
Quoting 85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the kill shot approaches bill goes bye bye soon




I can't wait to see what this interaction looks like! Plus we should have nice daylight for most of it. *NERDING OUT ON WU*
115 year precip record goes down at Austin Mabry for wettest first half year. Rest of the month should be dry after this weekend ends.




I will probably be waiting a lifetime before a repeat of the 2002 floods happen again. Makes the flooding out here look minimal (outside of Wimberley)

bill is like I don't think so

Alvin Toffler came pretty close on issue spotting lots of the things (including science and technology) that we grapple with today back in 1970................Then you add climate change to the equation.....................No wonder so many folks are stressed and jumping all over each other in recent years. This also supports the notion mentioned on here a few weeks ago that so many people rely on instant information available from the web and other sources, no matter how credible or uncredible the original source is, and rely on that (rather than personal experience or research) to form opinions. From Wiki:

Future Shockis a book written by the futuristAlvin Tofflerin 1970. In the book, Toffler defines the term "future shock" as a certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies. His shortest definition for the term is a personal perceptionof "too much change in too short a period of time". The book, which became an international bestseller, grew out of an article "The Future as a Way of Life" in Horizon magazine, Summer 1965 issue.
Toffler argued that society is undergoing an enormous structural change, a revolution from an industrial societyto a "super-industrial society". This change overwhelms people. He believed the accelerated rate of technological and social change left people disconnected and suffering from "shattering stress and disorientation"%u2014future shocked. Toffler stated that the majority of social problems are symptoms of future shock. In his discussion of the components of such shock, he popularized the term "information overload."




Boy Bill might take quite the track a full 360 around the SE Ridge. Here he is over N FL @ 180hrs.

Quoting 54. MahFL:



They took tax payers money though to offset the costs, how charitable of them.
Did you want the parishioners to not use tax breaks that were available to them? Some form of subsidy is the only way we'll make solar affordable, at least in the short term. We wouldn't have any railroads in the western part of the country if the government didn't provide a subsidy in the 19th century. People buying a Tesla are also riding partially on the taxpayer's dime. That's OK with me, even if I can never afford one. It's the only way we'll make progress on using less fossil fuels.
Quoting 140. jpsb:



Every 100,000 years or so Earth gets a much colder climate and continental ice sheets cover Canada and northern USA, northern eurasia too. Then the Earth warms up for 10 or 12 thousands years in an interglacial. So something is not constant, and it is not orbital forcings. If it were orbital forcings the cycle would be 28,000 years not 100,000 years so something else is in play. Could it be the Sun? I don't know and neither does anyone else.

Her field is astrophysicist so she looking to the heavens to see if she can find something there that might be effecting climate here. Not at all surprising an astrophysicist would do that and the cosmic ray hypothesis seems plausible to me.


Everything seems plausible to you except what there is actual evidence for.

"Benestad (2013) compared cosmic ray flux to global surface temperature changes and found "there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming." In fact, since 1990, galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth has increased - "the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures" (Lockwood 2007). In fact, cosmic ray on flux recently reached record levels. According to Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, "In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years." Erlykin et al. (2013) noted (emphasis added),

"Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming.""

Funny how there is no other explanation to explain the recent observations in the entirety of the scientific discourse, yet you do everything in your power to deny it exists, claiming alternate explanations with no supporting evidence MAY be responsible, even though no respected scientists have shown any coherent explanation that encompasses all observations like CO2 does. At this point, it would be very helpful if you just stopped pushing your dishonest lukewarming narrative. You can't accept some science in the field and reject others because you simply disagre. Thats intellectual cherry picking
Quoting 111. WaterWitch11:



is that the best that you can do? if you want to start crap i suggest you do it with someone else.
The climate is changing all the time, it would be very boring if it stayed the same all the time. Enjoy the climate, it's the only climate you got.
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

bill is like I don't think so


It's just a snack for Mr. Bill.
Quoting 105. Tropicsweatherpr:

The Mid-June plume of models have a consensus of Moderate El Nino peaking at +1.5C.




Actually the average is 1.7C to 1.8C a little higher again than a month ago. By the way 1.5C is considered a Strong El-Nino not moderate.
Quoting 145. weathermanwannabe:

Alvin Toffler came pretty close on issue spotting lots of the things (including science and technology) that we grapple with today back in 1970................Then you add climate change to the equation.....................No wonder so many folks are stressed and jumping all over each other in recent years. This also supports the notion mentioned on here a few weeks ago that so many people rely on instant information available from the web and other sources, no matter how credible or uncredible the original source is, and rely on that (rather than personal experience or research) to form opinions. From Wiki:

Future Shockis a book written by the futuristAlvin Tofflerin 1970. In the book, Toffler defines the term "future shock" as a certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies. His shortest definition for the term is a personal perceptionof "too much change in too short a period of time". The book, which became an international bestseller, grew out of an article "The Future as a Way of Life" in Horizon magazine, Summer 1965 issue.
Toffler argued that society is undergoing an enormous structural change, a revolution from an industrial societyto a "super-industrial society". This change overwhelms people. He believed the accelerated rate of technological and social change left people disconnected and suffering from "shattering stress and disorientation"%u2014future shocked. Toffler stated that the majority of social problems are symptoms of future shock. In his discussion of the components of such shock, he popularized the term "information overload."





Thank you for editing that post. I have never seen a site that handles a copy and paste so badly.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

It's just a snack for Mr. Bill.
it appears so
Notice how the whole mode suite moved up from the May update.

May update


June update
155. MahFL
Quoting 146. StormTrackerScott:

Boy Bill might take quite the track a full 360 around the SE Ridge. Here he is over N FL @ 180hrs.




Are you sure that's Bill ?
Hi, folks, I'm back from vacation, trying to catch up with the word of weather and - of course - will read the Pope's Encyclical the next days ... Thanks doc (and Dr. Rood as well) for the great coverage!

I see you were talking about the Vatican's solar station which was built when Benedict (Ratzinger) still was in charge as Pope. Although known as conservative he sometimes was dubbed as "the green pope" back then, believe it or not, lol. I remember the surprise of the members of our Green Party in German Parliament (Bundestag) in 2011 when Benedict said in his speech in front of them:

"I would like to recall one of the developments in recent political history, hoping that I will neither be misunderstood, nor provoke too many one-sided polemics. I would say that the emergence of the ecological movement in German politics since the 1970s, while it has not exactly flung open the windows, nevertheless was and continues to be a cry for fresh air which must not be ignored or pushed aside, just because too much of it is seen to be irrational. Young people had come to realize that something is wrong in our relationship with nature, that matter is not just raw material for us to shape at will, but that the earth has a dignity of its own and that we must follow its directives. In saying this, I am clearly not promoting any particular political party - nothing could be further from my mind. If something is wrong in our relationship with reality, then we must all reflect seriously on the whole situation and we are all prompted to question the very foundations of our culture." Source.

Moreover: Great weather news today for drought stricken central Germany: Low "Nils" delivered a bit of rain this morning (7mm = 0,3 inches at my place in Mainz)! And some more to come the next days, together with quite modest temperatures. Although the rain was too late to rescue some sorts of agriculture in certain regions, the rest of the crops with their farmers are very grateful for sure!

Quoting 74. Patrap:

Views of the Vatican solar station




Hi Gro-
Please track that pre-blob or something between Panama and Colombia to eastern Florida, ok?
Quoting 142. SouthCentralTx:

115 year precip record goes down at Austin Mabry for wettest first half year. Rest of the month should be dry after this weekend ends.




I will probably be waiting a lifetime before a repeat of the 2002 floods happen again. Makes the flooding out here look minimal (outside of Wimberley)


2002 was really an amazing event. You never, up until then, saw such a relatively large area of 35 inch and greater rain. Like you wrote, this one is bad for some people, but nothing like that, thank goodness. It's kind of interesting that all four of those stations had their wettest first half of the year in completely different years. There must be some local orographic effects that cause that, I assume. You'd think at least two of them would have been in the same year.
Quoting 155. MahFL:



Are you sure that's Bill ?


Yup, A weak reflection that completely goes a full 360 around the ridge. Ivan did that in 2005.
Here is the bigger pic tropical-wise for the Atlantic and Caribbean. Things may be quiet on this end now for a few weeks following the current issues with ex-Bill in the US:

Quoting 155. MahFL:



Are you sure that's Bill ?


Its not.
Quoting 155. MahFL:



Are you sure that's Bill ?
Bill is somewhere up in Canada by then. It's not, almost unbelievably, coming to Florida.
cyclonic convection on the increase now

Quoting 140. jpsb:



Every 100,000 years or so Earth gets a much colder climate and continental ice sheets cover Canada and northern USA, northern eurasia too. Then the Earth warms up for 10 or 12 thousands years in an interglacial. So something is not constant, and it is not orbital forcings. If it were orbital forcings the cycle would be 28,000 years not 100,000 years so something else is in play. Could it be the Sun? I don't know and neither does anyone else.

Her field is astrophysicist so she looking to the heavens to see if she can find something there that might be effecting climate here. Not at all surprising an astrophysicist would do that and the cosmic ray hypothesis seems plausible to me.


Quoting Wikipedia:

"The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000-year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This is very similar to the 100,000-year eccentricity period. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages."
Quoting 157. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Gro-
Please track that pre-blob or something between Panama and Colombia to eastern Florida, ok?



Will do, Joe.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Bill is somewhere up in Canada by then. It's not, almost unbelievably, coming to Florida.


For reference there goes Bill exiting stage right.

Quoting 166. VAbeachhurricanes:



For reference there goes Bill exiting stage right.




Yup your right look again and it's a different piece of energy that separates from a front moving offshore.
12Z GFS continues its trend of breakdown this SE Ridge late next week. Big pattern change on the way while Texas dries out and turns awfully hot instead of the SE US baking day in day out.
Western US has a very hot pattern heading their way. Texas as well this could be the last days of rain for sometime.

170. VR46L
Quoting 166. VAbeachhurricanes:



For reference there goes Bill exiting stage right.




and becomes part of a extrop storm and some of its rain will fall on me

12Z GFS has lows 50 to 55 across the whole Great lakes region for the morning of 4th of July! Impressive cooldown might be coming as the SOI tanks.
ATL: Bill is now exiting Oklahoma and will be transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone soon. However for now its still a cyclone. Flooding will still be occurring.

Read more...
Quoting 145. weathermanwannabe:

Alvin Toffler came pretty close on issue spotting lots of the things (including science and technology) that we grapple with today back in 1970................Then you add climate change to the equation.....................No wonder so many folks are stressed and jumping all over each other in recent years. This also supports the notion mentioned on here a few weeks ago that so many people rely on instant information available from the web and other sources, no matter how credible or uncredible the original source is, and rely on that (rather than personal experience or research) to form opinions. From Wiki:

Future Shockis a book written by the futuristAlvin Tofflerin 1970. In the book, Toffler defines the term "future shock" as a certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies. His shortest definition for the term is a personal perceptionof "too much change in too short a period of time". The book, which became an international bestseller, grew out of an article "The Future as a Way of Life" in Horizon magazine, Summer 1965 issue.
Toffler argued that society is undergoing an enormous structural change, a revolution from an industrial societyto a "super-industrial society". This change overwhelms people. He believed the accelerated rate of technological and social change left people disconnected and suffering from "shattering stress and disorientation"%u2014future shocked. Toffler stated that the majority of social problems are symptoms of future shock. In his discussion of the components of such shock, he popularized the term "information overload."



A good book, Future Shock. And, just think, when Alvin Toffler wrote the book, the world had recently been introduced to microwave ovens. Wide spread use of PCs and cell phones was still decades away. The internet? Ha. Even so, the science of the greenhouse effect was alive and well, and "green" was not a dirty word. Charles Reich's The Greening of America is another good read from that era when societal views were changing faster than we used to change the socks we didn't wear any more. Turns out, as I can see now looking back, the change back then did not change anything. Human nature cannot be changed. This century, societies across the globe are headed into societal changes - economic, political, and even technologic - that will make the 1960s and 70s look like chump "change."
174. ch2os
I'll just check back in tomorrow to see what Dr. Masters decides to blog about. Not going to touch today's way too volatile subject of religion and global warming with a 10 foot pole. Good day everyone.
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS has lows 50 to 55 across the whole Great lakes region for the morning of 4th of July! Impressive cooldown might be coming as the SOI tanks.


It also shows almost no rain for SE FL through the end of June. Unbelievable how dry it has been there and continues to be.
Quoting 174. ch2os:

I'll just check back in tomorrow to see what Dr. Masters decides to blog about. Not going to touch today's way too volatile subject of religion and global warming with a 10 foot pole. Good day everyone.
its ok no one will interfere with your free will to discuss things in a reasonable manner
If the planet goes to hell, climatology speaking, after I leave (and I am in hell that I caused due to my actions on earth), then hay-zeus comes to earth to save it.....Isn't He saving hell? Therefore, He can come save me from the hell I've created personally?

I'm asking for a friend.... ;)
Quoting 172. meteorologistkidFL:

ATL: Bill is now exiting Oklahoma and will be transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone soon. However for now its still a cyclone. Flooding will still be occurring.

Read more...
Any low is a cyclone. Bill will still be a cyclone when he transitions, just not a tropical cyclone. When you're writing a blog for the public, it's important to get these details right.
Quoting 177. MonsterTrough:

If the planet goes to hell, climatology speaking, after I leave (and I am in hell that I caused due to my actions on earth), then hay-zeus comes to earth to save it.....Isn't He saving hell? Therefore, He can come save me from the hell I've created personally?

I'm asking for a friend.... ;)
Hydrus, I think this one is yours... :-)
Quoting 176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its ok no one will interfere with your free will to discuss things in a reasonable manner
100 posts since 2005. I'm going to miss him.
182. vis0

Quoting 8. LAbonbon:


Why should that even be a criteria? Do doctors have to all stop consuming alcohol, sugar, salt and fats in order to let their patients know that overuse of them will negatively impact their health?

Everything in moderation is a good thing. But expecting one group to eliminate fossil fuel use is absurd.

Maybe someday we'll all be on renewables, but that day is not here yet.
"But expecting one group to eliminate fossil fuel use is absurd. "


Unless you (Pope) call that one group "HUMANS".

 Popes main audience are Catholics but we understand how the webnet (satellites) has  connected all people so be it wrong or right an opinion by a well known person "leader" is heard around the globe.

As to
""

sure just like that nice looking thumbnail of KEEPEROFTHEGATE VID** posted on cmmnt#7 i figure it must be a luvly VId but i also see moderation being used. Notice the wooden chair on that Island, i figure some tree was cut down to make that chair but hopefully another tree was planted in its place in case the one still standing is needed to stay warm (kindling), if you have to use nature DO IT WISELY don't abuse a privilege
...here's where i vent (click ignore NOW, by doing so you'll receive a 4.0 average as deemed by the  University of Ignorance)
...too bad as to the majeekal-device i tried to get noticed.  When someone else figures it out it will power 60% of the world electrical grids by using steering wind-streams towards wind turbines atop tall buildings. You'll see new inventions like fiber optics will be connected to take any excess energy from the wind turbines and send it special fiber optic tubes to light offices as switchers switch over from electrical to ethereal ml-d energy (Koch bros. can still make a profit and not worry of any backlash) . When a wind stornm like TS BILL (2015) hits a city, the city's ml-d wind turbines will use that excess wind to power TALL heaters**** placed in rivers by the National Guard / hydrologist experts / core of engineers will be in charge of these heating elements that heat up the excess (rising) waters and ALLOW the steam that rises into thoseTALL intakes whicj condense and drop as water into long pipe (each state checks these pipes, but gov't maintains them) lines that lead directly towards large bodies of water (local lakes that are NOT FLOODING or in the flooding path or great lakes or GoMx), one does not power the steam at the intake (the TALL intakes uses waters momentum to start its first few 100 feet of motion) but the powered area are at the output areas of the pipes as the momentum starts the water down the pipeline and the power pumps attract that momentum toward the large body of waters. One can use this method to slowly but surely pass excess water from the Mississippi basin to any coastline (all 3) during a coastlines dry spell. One state passes it on to another and so on with the National Guard / hydrologist experts in control BUT THERE IS A CATCH, that someone invent the ml-d otherwise we'd be using oil, coal, gas to power the darn pipeline and that defeats the purpose..but as some now call the Pope, i too am a nut.

****(with special micro filters to redirect fish & smaller living creatures away from the heated elements)


**(cannot play VID here of wxu freezes)

I'm sure there are logistical problems but guess what when the "left" or "right" put me (or any thinker that thinks on the edge) on ignore we all lose 'cause the think tank is then empty and a reverberating empty think tank echo leads to zero.

you can come back now, sorry to scare  Λ^RADAR©.

LETS WATCH BILL Fujiwari? with a Derecho..Tango anyone
Quoting 180. sar2401:

100 posts since 2005. I'm going to miss him.


give it a rest sar
I was only trying to be nice

it makes me feel good
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:



It also shows almost no rain for SE FL through the end of June. Unbelievable how dry it has been there and continues to be.


I wouldn't put to much into the Specifics but in general a Eastern trough will likely lead to a SW flow across FL so that should give SE FL some relief in terms of rainfall. Again a little far out still but I like the model trends so far.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:



It also shows almost no rain for SE FL through the end of June. Unbelievable how dry it has been there and continues to be.
I hope the rain doesn't come in Aug,. Sept., and Oct., with a lot of wind attach to it. The rain will be made up somewhere down the road, May and June, being dry months will usually lead to bigger problems latter on.
186. JRRP

Quoting 164. DCSwithunderscores:



Quoting Wikipedia:

"The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000-year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This is very similar to the 100,000-year eccentricity period. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages."

The 28,000 year cycle is the precession of the earth's rotational axis.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:



It also shows almost no rain for SE FL through the end of June. Unbelievable how dry it has been there and continues to be.
Record low for Cleveland on Jul4 was 41 in 1968, two years after I left. I was feeling pretty smug, since the low in Los Angeles was something like 67. It got down into the 50's at least a couple of times each summer, usually right after a heatwave. Even if something 16 days out comes true, it won't be all the impressive to Clevelanders, who never put away their coats.
GFS has little to no rain across most of Texas the next 16 days. Pattern change coming. It is going to take another 5 to 8 days across the SE US to finally shake the ridge but atleast there is a end in sight to all this smothering oppressive heat.

Quoting 187. BayFog:


The 28,000 year cycle is the precession of the earth's rotational axis.


I was already aware of that, except that the period is about 26,000 years.
Quoting 166. VAbeachhurricanes:



For reference there goes Bill exiting stage right.


We shall see. Bill is still on NE path. If he doesn't get absorbed by that front, he'll continue NE and stop off at Keep's house. But he's still not going to Florida.
troughiness.n.w.carib


What looks to be a borderline severe thunderstorm just fired up in Tampa.
Quoting 190. DCSwithunderscores:



I was already aware of that, except that the period is about 26,000 years.
Here's what I don't get. This supposed sunspot maximum has been terrible. It's almost like the 2014 hurricane season of sunspots. Sunspot activity has been below normal for almost 10 year. All of us ham radio freaks have been waiting for 2015 since 2005. I have the same luck with sunspots I do with thunderstorms. So with this low sunspot activity, why hasn't it been cooler here on earth instead of warmer? Sunspots are the only thing that adds extra heat from the sun. If those that believe sunspots are somehow warming the earth can't see this, especially scientists who are supposed to understand it, there must be something else going on with their claims. Almost like they're fibbing.
end.to.the.heat?=====mid-september..ecen.fl.
Quoting 154. StormTrackerScott:

Notice how the whole mode suite moved up from the May update.

May update


June update



now while i don't usually quote posts much to many's ire......i do this one as it is easier to see the models you're describing.......and while at first glance....i see where you would say the models have shifted up.....however....looking at the dynamical average....it remains virtually unchanged....and the statistical average looks to be up about 2/10ths of a degree
Quoting 96. NativeSun:

Yes I agree, I just hope it's not as boring as 1992.


1992 produced Andrew. It only takes one!
(It also produced an epic Northern Rockies snowstorm the same AUGUST weekend)
now...to the blog topic at hand


Oddly enough, I've not seen anyone here either mocked or insulted for their religious beliefs; if you have, I hope you dutifully reported that to the mods. However, I *have* seen some challenge statements based on superstition and myth instead of logic and science. But asking an honest question in a science forum isn't mocking, nor is it an insult.

well....because you haven't seen it...doesn't make it any less true....i'm not going to take the time to search when i've personally been told the bible has no place in here when i've used to as a reason that those that call themselves believers should be concerned about AGW.....after todays blog entry however....i cry....NO MORE!
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Record low for Cleveland on Jul4 was 41 in 1968, two years after I left. I was feeling pretty smug, since the low in Los Angeles was something like 67. It got down into the 50's at least a couple of times each summer, usually right after a heatwave. Even if something 16 days out comes true, it won't be all the impressive to Clevelanders, who never put away their coats.


Even in the hottest summers heareMaine, we will have at least one (usually more) July/August mornings that the temps drop into the 40's. Some years we can have ten days or more and not unusual at all to have days that don't get out of the 60's. This morning it was 49F when I left for work and at 0300, I got up and closed all the windows and tossed a heavy blanket on the bed.

Katharine Hayhoe: The pope’s encyclical on climate change – will evangelicals care?

[...]

So, will the Pope’s encyclical affect evangelicals?

For those who place their politics and ideology before their faith, it will not change many minds. As I discuss here, the roots of climate denial lie in our ideology rather than our faith.

But for any who take the Bible seriously, it must change minds. The encyclical is not proposing any new doctrine; it is not preaching any new message. It is simply reminding us that at the foundation of Christianity is one simple word: LOVE. And that word cannot fail to resonate in the hearts of all who believe, regardless of


Ii'm not sure how broad a stroke the above author is using when describing "evangelicals"....but since most that I would consider evangelical are not in agreement with catholic doctrine....i would think this could become more of a polarization against climate change for evangelicals.......just as when we first began talking about climate change many years ago i worried that moving it into the political realm would hamper peoples understanding and acceptance of it....i hope i am wrong


however...if i was going to write a sermonette about AGW.......well...guess what...i will......see my next post in however long it takes me to write it
201. JRRP
Quoting 186. JRRP:

Link




ECMWF
Quoting 186. JRRP:



You never know, sometimes it rains, even with low PW values. Other times, it doesn't rain with high PW values. It's 1.8" here. The temperature is 98 and the dewpoint is 78. We should be lousy with thunderstorms. Maybe I'll have a chance to get excited again later as one passes by. Sometimes the weather just stinks.
lots of little pop ups now strong set over ill

204. jpsb
Quoting 164. DCSwithunderscores:



Quoting Wikipedia:

"The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000-year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This is very similar to the 100,000-year eccentricity period. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages."

wiki
The 100,000 year problem is a discrepancy between past temperatures and the amount of incoming solar radiation, or insolation. The latter rises and falls according to the strength of radiation given off by the sun, the distance from the earth to the sun, and the tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation. However, the recent change between glacial and inter-glacial states that occurs on a circa 100,000 year (100 ka) timescale, does not correlate well with these factors.
Quoting 199. tlawson48:



Even in the hottest summers heareMaine, we will have at least one (usually more) July/August mornings that the temps drop into the 40's. Some years we can have ten days or more and not unusual at all to have days that don't get out of the 60's. This morning it was 49F when I left for work and at 0300, I got up and closed all the windows and tossed a heavy blanket on the bed.
That's exactly why I left. I had a brand new MGB. I really liked riding with the top down. It seemed like I was running out every couple of hours and putting the top up because it was raining, or it was too cold, or it was too hot. That top really got a workout. In California, I put the top down in May and sometimes I had to put it up for a little while in October. Much better. :-)
Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lots of little pop ups now strong set over ill


Bill's almost done with lunch.
Quoting 201. JRRP:



ECMWF
Hmmm.
208. JRRP
Quoting 207. Climate175:

Hmmm.

the wave will smell the dust
Quoting 199. tlawson48:



Even in the hottest summers heareMaine, we will have at least one (usually more) July/August mornings that the temps drop into the 40's. Some years we can have ten days or more and not unusual at all to have days that don't get out of the 60's. This morning it was 49F when I left for work and at 0300, I got up and closed all the windows and tossed a heavy blanket on the bed.

I'd say that sounds lovely and refreshing, but...had to read this twice. You got up at 0300 because it was chilly, or because you had to go to work? 'Cause that doesn't sound lovely at all...
Quoting 208. JRRP:


the wave will sniff the dust

maybe more like snuffed out by the dust
made mention of area of disturbed weather in post #88. nice wave good observation JRRP .Will bring much needed rain to Barbados and the Windwards this weekend,
Deep, deep, derp as per the usual.

its da Sun, check,

Its ice ages, check

I cant seem to grasp Science and how it is vetted, double dutch derp check'


Yup, it be Thursday.
We are all so smug in our view, short term and myopic as it is. The answers we think we see are mere nano-meters in time and in understanding. To say we have caused a meaningful "shift" in the earth's mean/extreme temperature is to have great faith indeed. To say that today's extreme weather has never been so before, is the epitome of self-congratulatory hyperbole. Our view is short. The carbon being released today has all been "loose" before, that is how it became bound in the fossil hydrocarbon deposits in the first place. So, yes Galileo was more correct than those of his day, but not all climatologists have an objective world view - not anymore. We all need faith in something.
Quoting 208. JRRP:


the wave will smell the dust

More like YUM!
215. vis0
"Thrilla in QQQ"** WxU members pick the town name near by.
image host
** younings Search Thrilla in Manilla
getting closer now

217. JRRP
214 lol
Quoting 212. Patrap:

Deep, deep, derp as per the usual.

its da Sun, check,

Its ice ages, check

I cant seem to grasp Science and how it is vetted, double dutch derp check'


Yup, it be Thursday.


recycling pick up and grass cutting today
the recycling been out an hr and half
the landscapers are almost done
just cleaning up the clippings

do the walk check out the job sign the work order for payment
another day done
Quoting 194. sar2401:

Here's what I don't get. This supposed sunspot maximum has been terrible. It's almost like the 2014 hurricane season of sunspots. Sunspot activity has been below normal for almost 10 year. All of us ham radio freaks have been waiting for 2015 since 2005. I have the same luck with sunspots I do with thunderstorms. So with this low sunspot activity, why hasn't it been cooler here on earth instead of warmer? Sunspots are the only thing that adds extra heat from the sun. If those that believe sunspots are somehow warming the earth can't see this, especially scientists who are supposed to understand it, there must be something else going on with their claims. Almost like they're fibbing.


Sunspot numbers are a proxy indicator for increased solar activity, although the sunspots themselves are actually cooler regions. We've just passed the maximum of the 11 year solar cycle. As maximas go, it's been a particularly weak affair, but still a maximum, so will have had a very small warming effect on Earth, perhaps a few hundredths of a degree C.

Many years ago, I did a rather unscientific survey into the effects of particularly strong solar maxima on global temperatures. I used years in which aurora borealis was particularly frequent, and years where it was seen at anomalously low latitudes (eg the Azores). I found that the average global temperature of the strong years was 0.15 C stronger than the average for the five years before and after (total 10 years). For 'normal' years, it'll be significantly less, and for weak maxima, maybe just a few hundredths of a degree.
As noted below, there is some wave activity emerging off of Africa this year in June (and not as spotty as last year) but that current SAL content is so high in the Central Atlantic that any June development for these waves is highly improbable:

It's currently 94F/34C with a heat index of 116F/47C. I can confidently say I've never felt it so hot before. Going outside is miserable.

Hurry up winter.




Its so HIGH outside here I can see the blue edge of the Big H to my East,

Gawjus day.

Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lots of little pop ups now strong set over ill




He certainly won against the MCS. Good Job Bill.
Quoting 213. drlinhardt:

We are all so smug in our view, short term and myopic as it is. The answers we think we see are mere nano-meters in time and in understanding. To say we have caused a meaningful "shift" in the earth's mean/extreme temperature is to have great faith indeed. To say that today's extreme weather has never been so before, is the epitome of self-congratulatory hyperbole. Our view is short. The carbon being released today has all been "loose" before, that is how it became bound in the fossil hydrocarbon deposits in the first place. So, yes Galileo was more correct than those of his day, but not all climatologists have an objective world view - not anymore. We all need faith in something.
I think you've missed a crucial point. For the 10,000 years or so during which agriculture and civilization have existed, the climate has been remarkably stable. That "loose" carbon has been in deep storage all that time. The earth will survive regardless of what humans do or don't do - it has survived five major extinction events already. And humans probably will too - we're very adaptable as a species. But civilization ? Life as we know it? Um, I wouldn't be so sure about that.

As for causing a meaningful shift in earth's temperature, if you doubt that it's happening and that humans are causing it, then you haven't been paying attention to the last umpteen blogs here, not to mention the rest of the earth sciences.
Quoting 213. drlinhardt:

We are all so smug in our view, short term and myopic as it is. The answers we think we see are mere nano-meters in time and in understanding. To say we have caused a meaningful "shift" in the earth's mean/extreme temperature is to have great faith indeed. To say that today's extreme weather has never been so before, is the epitome of self-congratulatory hyperbole. Our view is short. The carbon being released today has all been "loose" before, that is how it became bound in the fossil hydrocarbon deposits in the first place. So, yes Galileo was more correct than those of his day, but not all climatologists have an objective world view - not anymore. We all need faith in something.


Yes, the carbon was "loose" before and it was freakin' hot. As in hot enough that humans would have had an extremely difficult, if not impossible time surviving (never mind on the scale we currently are at). So if humans release all that carbon and it gets really hot, then what?
Quoting 194. sar2401:

Here's what I don't get. This supposed sunspot maximum has been terrible. It's almost like the 2014 hurricane season of sunspots. Sunspot activity has been below normal for almost 10 year. All of us ham radio freaks have been waiting for 2015 since 2005. I have the same luck with sunspots I do with thunderstorms. So with this low sunspot activity, why hasn't it been cooler here on earth instead of warmer? Sunspots are the only thing that adds extra heat from the sun. If those that believe sunspots are somehow warming the earth can't see this, especially scientists who are supposed to understand it, there must be something else going on with their claims. Almost like they're fibbing.
I wouldn't say "sunspots are somehow warming the earth"; it's more like the sunspot activity is a result of a more active and warmer Sun. Perhaps because we study the Sun from 93,000,000 miles away we've missed something of the physics of production of sunspots, and they may not be so tightly linked to warming as was once thought. But the LEO satellites (or wherever it's measured) that measure insolation at the top of the atmosphere do reflect solar output that reaches Earth. What do they say about the incoming energy?
Quoting 225. tlawson48:



Yes, the carbon was "loose" before and it was freakin' hot. As in hot enough that humans would have had an extremely difficult, if not impossible time surviving (never mind on the scale we currently are at). So if humans release all that carbon and it gets really hot, then what?
yeah in them days temps at the north pole averaged about 85 degrees every day
A 3-minute journey through the last 250 years of our history, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to the Rio+20 Summit. The film charts the growth of humanity into a global force on an equivalent scale to major geological processes.






Quoting 221. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's currently 94F/34C with a heat index of 116F/47C. I can confidently say I've never felt it so hot before. Going outside is miserable.

Hurry up winter.
You have a dewpoint of 81-82F if that's the case.
from post 200

however...if i was going to write a sermonette about AGW.......well...guess what...i will......see my next post in however long it takes me to write it

welcome brothers and sisters to the non-denominational church of WU....i thank you all for coming this day and hope that you are blessed and filled with the love of god as we look into his word this morning.....

now please if you will...take your bible and turn with me to

Philippians 4:8 ESV

Finally, brothers, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is commendable, if there is any excellence, if there is anything worthy of praise, think about these things.


now as you are turning to this bible passage i remember as a child a service where a young preacher told us that if we had faith....we could drink battery acid and not be harmed......wow....was i impressed.....by knowing and loving god we could do that?....well...years later i would reflect on that sermon and wonder....why was it...that we never saw that preacher drink battery acid himself?

well brothers and sisters i am here to tell you that god has told us...not to leave our brains at the doorway when we decide to follow him....that's right...he doesn't want dumb christians....

now i'm know that pastor was paraphrasing the passage in the bible where god tells us that if we have the faith even as tiny as a mustard seed we could move mountains.....

and i think that pastor didn't drink battery acid...because in school...he learned about how caustic and corrosive battery acid is....not to mention that he might have seen its affects at some point in his life...and that he very well might have seen the warning label on batteries with the graphic of the acid eating through your hand...

and i'm not telling you to not have faith...the bible speaks volumes on having faith...living by faith...and practicing through faith....

it's just that the mustard seed passage...is telling us...not that we don't have faith.....but just how little faith we have...and that the small amount of faith we have....is all that is required for us to follow him......in other words...yes folks...all it takes is faith the size of a mustard seed to move a mountain...but guess what....we don't have it...

so what does that bible tell us then....it tells us to think...now i could quote verses from the old testament to the new where we are told to think....but i've chosen this scripture as it very plainly tells us to think...and to what we should spend our time thinking on.......look at the end of the verse...THINK ABOUT THESE THINGS......it's clear that the bible tells us not to be mindless people....and that also means not to be close minded....

and as to AGW......we can look at the first part of that verse....WHATEVER IS TRUE......yes...we are to think about what is true...and how can we know if something is true or not without learning about it...without listening to experts...to not make a rational decision...in fact.....concerning the issue of AGW we see just the opposite from so many that declare themselves believers....we see deceit...we see close minds and we see limited thinking and a denial of experts...

why is it that when we're ill we turn to a doctor...they're scientists...aren't they?....in the morning while drinking our first cup of coffee and watching the news...don't we pay extra attention when the weatherman comes on.....they're scientists....we look to experts on every level of our lives.....but for some reason...when it comes to climate change....we've been led somehow to believe....it's just god's will.....god will take care of it.....i should be focused on more spiritual things...scientists are fallible...anything and everything except as we were told to do in phillipians...think about what is true..

let me say this plainly and strongly....if you are a believer and the only thing you can do is go to some site that has no scientific evidence that AGW is true...is only backed by a company or investors that have an interest in activities that would be limited by the existence of AGW....has been shown to be wrong and in error....then i don't care how many times you come to church....how many god is my pilot bumper stickers are on your car.......you're not following the teaching found in the bible....

now as i conclude...i want to take this one step further.....once we accept AGW...once we understand the consequences...what do we do......do we only put it in gods hands?......do we limit it to prayer requests at the wednesday night prayer meeting...do we leave it to our pastors and church leaders to only bring it up at the occasional sunday services...or do we hide behind the tired line that we're supposed to be in the world and not of the world andso just leave it to someone else to take care of....well...i challenge you to be like noah....when god told him he would flood the earth....produce the heavens to pour....noah didn't leave it in gods hands...he didn't pass it on to the next guy...or his kids and grandkids....he did the seemingly impossible.....be built an ark...and i ask you....who's ready to help build this ark???
232. vis0
Quoting 109. yoboi:
When has the climate not changed??
▬   ▬ 
▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬     

Climate has not changed how elements react, therefore if too much CO2 builds up within this globe, Climate responds to that element.

Do we know how certain elements react when they build up or lower their amounts within this planets atmosphere(s)?

Yes due to many experiments that in turn has led to researchers pointing out the dangers of the many pollutants mankind has "puffed" onto earth's "face".

▬   ▬  ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬    ▬   ▬     
Please tear at the dotted line and keep for future reference.
Quoting 230. Tornado6042008X:

You have a dewpoint of 81-82F if that's the case.

Wouldn't surprise me. The dewpoint at the International Airport about 15 miles away is 76F, with their heat index at 107F.
Quoting 91. tlawson48:



A cool down would certainly be nice. But that map is time stamped "valid at 06Z, Tue Jun 30, 2015". That would be 0200 Eastern Standard Time. What is the temp projection for 18Z on the same date?

Minor quibble - it would be EDT, not EST

Quoting 150. sar2401:

It's just a snack for Mr. Bill.

Yeah, but that line did look a whole lot more impressive earlier this morning.

Quoting 182. vis0:


(snip)

LETS WATCH BILL Fujiwari? with a Derecho..Tango anyone


Love your posts, vis!
Quoting 190. DCSwithunderscores:


I was already aware of that, except that the period is about 26,000 years.


I believe Grothar knows exactly.
236. vis0

Quoting 121. ACSeattle:


The Pope uses Bible verses to show that combating AGW is consistent with Biblical teachings. In no way is this using the Bible to prove that AGW is true.
i would put it more like "how maintaining cleanliness is next to gawdliness".  In that cleanliness does not mean whiter or  physically clean but that when one flows with nature one has the opportunity to go further in self(body), soul & spirit 'cause one learns how to enjoy the fruits of being a physical being (like driving a nice car or using AC) BUT doing it in a way that causes less damage to others which includes, Mother.

now i just sinned at least 3 times
1] by misspelling gawd
2] by typing this as i wondered "hmmm i wonder what adult site i should visit this wkend" (no need to post top 100 sites sar...i got a 500 list...i was part of the 3 first 70 that had http, sadly to some not for weather or science related sites but as to adult sites, being a freelance cameraman in NYC 1980-90s... i saw everything and volunteered at studios that catered to the adults sites AND i STILL maintained that science device...ambidextrous!!!..i really am )
3] i just curesed when i saw what word spellchk wanted me to replace "gawdliness" with...
I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.
Quoting 235. rmbjoe1954:



I believe Grothar knows exactly.


25,581.6682. But a good earthquake can shorten that my a millionth of a second.
Quoting 237. Grothar:
I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.


His Holiness will have you say 100 Our Fathers and 500 Hail Marys
with a promise to purchase a photovoltaic system for your home and an electric powered vehicle.
Quoting 237. Grothar:

I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.

Just drive downhill. That will help.
Quoting 155. MahFL:



Are you sure that's Bill ?

It's not. The circulation of Bill should progress through the Ohio Valley and Northeast over the coming days before emerging into the Atlantic and continuing eastward. Circulation just south of Nova Scotia in 96 hours:



EDIT: Didn't see this addressed initially. I'm late. :)
Quoting 241. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not. The circulation of Bill should progress through the Ohio Valley and Northeast over the coming days before emerging into the Atlantic and continuing eastward. Circulation just south of Nova Scotia in 96 hours:



Then it's good bye Mr. Bill! Ohhhhh Noooooooooo!
243. vis0

Quoting 138. sar2401:

It's not going to be much of a battle. Bill will swallow it whole and we'll never know it existed in about six hours.
Since there are "no bones 'bout it" in yer comment, the Heimlich is not needed, though "wash" out washi115 in case Bill upchucks.

see dat, i pulled a Terribly Anemic Zoom
Quoting 215. vis0:

"Thrilla in QQQ"** WxU members pick the town name near by.
image host
** younings Search Thrilla in Manilla


I don't understand a single thing you post
Quoting 239. rmbjoe1954:



His Holiness will have you say 100 Our Fathers and 500 Hail Marys
with a promise to purchase a photovoltaic system for your home and an electric powered vehicle.


The Vatican are certainly setting an example

Thunder & Lighting starting to pick up in Ocala, FL. Power flickering as well as storm builds overhead. WU page says temp is 97.5!
Quoting 239. rmbjoe1954:



His Holiness will have you say 100 Our Fathers and 500 Hail Marys
with a promise to purchase a photovoltaic system for your home and an electric powered vehicle.
Thank God I'm not Catholic, I can't imagine how many Hail Mary's and our Fathers the pope would have me say, as my boat only gets 3mpg and my truck 15mpg's.
248. vis0
By the (PREMATURE) looks of things, the squished yet big HIGH over the Tropic of Cancer in the ATL will become a carousal and the horse(power) 2 or 3 TS??? what do ya think sar2401 or STS
Quoting 244. pipelines:



I don't understand a single thing you post

Bummer!

Here he's talking about the Nebraska Derecho vs. Bill (hence the 'Thrilla in Manila' comment). He's asking us to pick which town near the 'clash' fits best in the new fight name.

Yes, his posts are eccentric at times, but there's one thing about vis - he reads all the posted comments and the entirety of Dr. M/Mr. H's posts, he seems to have a phenomenal memory about who posted what, and he often refers back to older comments.

I don't always understand all his posts, but I do enjoy many of them. Great sense of humor, IMO.
2015 is trolling everyone so far when it's coming to the tropics xD.Never completely write something off until its dead dead and more dead (I'm not writing the season off until 11/30/15).You see Bill,he is still causing major flooding problems.
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:
2015 is trolling everyone so far when it's coming to the tropics xD.Never completely write something off until its dead dead and more dead (I'm not writing the season off until 11/30/15).You see Bill,he is still causing major flooding problems.


Ohhhhh Nooooooooooooooo!!

Well enjoy Mr. Bill for the day as he will have to go back tomorrow in the picture archive. I do hope the flooding problems are minimal.
Quoting 247. NativeSun:

Thank God I'm not Catholic, I can't imagine how many Hail Mary's and our Fathers the pope would have me say, as my boat only gets 3mpg and my truck 15mpg's.


U proud of that?



Gee"


U might wanna check into some recent engineering.

Being fiscal minded and all?

LOL

Quoting 246. KDDFlorida:

Thunder & Lighting starting to pick up in Ocala, FL. Power flickering as well as storm builds overhead.
Link


I can't believe the number of power outages you get in the most advanced country in the world. You'd think the electricity companies would have solved this problem a long time ago, but maybe the profit motive prevents investment in a more robust system. Better to just repair each outage than invest in expensive underground cables.

I live in south Scotland. We had many power outages in the 60s, but I haven't experienced one for more than 20 years. The UK population is much denser than in the US, so it's economical to put power lines underground. That said, there is a lot of overhead electricity power distribution here as well but only in the countryside, and nothing like the urban overhead power lines that I see in the US.

My outsider's view is that US power companies have a pretty cynical attitude to the suffering caused by power outages. If UK companies can bury urban power lines, why can't US companies?

Quoting 240. Misanthroptimist:


Just drive downhill. That will help.


I have a Al Bundy car. Gotta push it to get around.
Quoting 239. rmbjoe1954:





">


Why does not accepting the science behind global warming often manifest itself in hardcore antienvironmentalism?

It's not enough to just deny and denigrate the science, the ecosystem must be mocked as well.
I have a beautiful 30kft+ thunderstorm maybe 5 miles to my north that's shooting up rock hard towers and giving us a decent breeze. WU radar shows it smack dab in between Sparta and Cookeville. If only these things could form directly overhead...>:\
259. vis0
▬Quoting 237. Grothar:
    I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.

▬▬Quoting 239. rmbjoe1954
 
His Holiness will have you say 100 Our Fathers and 500 Hail Marys
with a promise to purchase a photovoltaic system for your home and an electric powered vehicle.

■ Now if gawd strikes ya both with lightning, please make sure its redirected to the cars storage battery & photo voltaic downside transformer grid.
Quoting 259. vis0:

%u25ACQuoting 237. Grothar:
I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.

%u25AC%u25ACQuoting 239. rmbjoe1954

His Holiness will have you say 100 Our Fathers and 500 Hail Marys
with a promise to purchase a photovoltaic system for your home and an electric powered vehicle.

%u25A0 Now if gawd strikes ya both with lightning, please make sure its redirected to the cars storage battery & photo voltaic downside transformer grid.



Well lucky for me there is not chance of any rain or storms affecting me for the remainder of this month. God is watching over Gro and me apparently. lol
Quoting 257. Naga5000:



Why does not accepting the science behind global warming often manifest itself in hardcore antienvironmentalism?

It's not enough to just deny and denigrate the science, the ecosystem must be mocked as well.


because it will all be
of there own free will
according to the book
it don't work out all too well

me I am just here for the ride

Hot Pacific Ocean Runs Bloody — Blob Now Features Record Red Tide

Red Tide. It’s what happens when massive algae blooms cover vast regions of ocean.

The biological density of the blooms is so great that they can paint the waters affected a shade of brown or red. A bloody color indicative of clouds of dangerous microbes just beneath the surface. And today, a massive Red Tide — perhaps the largest ever recorded — now stretches from California to Alaska along a vast stretch of the North American West Coast already reeling under the ongoing and dangerous impact of a massive ocean heating event that researchers have called ‘The Blob.’


Link
Quoting 260. rmbjoe1954:



. God is watching over Gro and me apparently. lol


u and gro are safe but that governor there he needs a little wake up call too nature
Massive!
ibdbliv's wundercam in Riverton, KS

(25)..There has been a
tragic rise in the number of migrants seeking to
flee from the growing poverty caused by environmental degradation. They are not recognized
by international conventions as refugees; they
bear the loss of the lives they have left behind,
without enjoying any legal protection whatsoever. Sadly, there is widespread indifference to
such suffering, which is even now taking place
throughout our world. Our lack of response to
these tragedies involving our brothers and sisters
points to the loss of that sense of responsibility
for our fellow men and women upon which all
civil society is founded.
Quoting 263. tampabaymatt:




I don't really pay attention to these precip maps with a sea breeze thunderstorm pattern they are useless when it comes to forecasting rainfall from the sea breeze. Bottom line is, on a day to day basis, some places will get 4 inches, other will get 1, and others will get none, lol.


The good news is, although high pressure is in firm control, it's subsidence is just a tad weaker than the last couple days, and that along with increasing moisture will lead to increasing coverage. I got a pretty good down pour today and some decent lightning activity, 0.76 here.
Quoting 114. ACSeattle:

Don't know 'bout you, but I find that departure of 0.87C (1.57F) kinda scary
It looks like that cool spot in the North Atlantic just below Greenland is persistent.

There has been some speculation that it is at least partly related to Greenland ice sheet melt, and might affect the AMOC thermohaline system, including the Gulf Stream. This could have serious implications for Europe.
Recently, while looking through some wunderphotos, I saw this one, and became intrigued. It's in Alaska, and the photographer is wondering why the river is bone dry. I asked if she minded if I asked the bloggers here for any input that could shed some light on this. She agreed and is interested in your feedback :)


WunderPhotographer katy99780 (Permission to re-post obtained)
Tuesday June 16, 2015
Tok, AK
Caption: Not a drop of water in the Tok River... where'd it all go? It has totally disappeared. Never in anyone's memory has this happened.

She shared, via wumail, the following:

"An oldtimer in the area, a reliable local historian, says he's never seen this happen in his 60-some years in the area. He is a pilot and has a remote cabin near the headwaters, and he said the river, though low at the headwaters, flows about halfway to this point where it empties into the Tanana River, and just disappears into the gravel riverbed. Probably (I'm guessing) due to quite low snowfall in the mountains last winter."

I couldn't locate the Tok River on a map, but it is a tributary of the Tanana River, near the headwaters, and seems to be relatively close to the Alaska/Yukon Territory (Canada) border. The Tanana flows northwest and empties into the Yukon. The Tanana River Wiki page references the Tok River.


(Source - Tanana River Wiki page)

By the way, she has some really beautiful photos posted of her corner of the world.
Quoting 261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



because it will all be
of there own free will
according to the book
it don't work out all too well

me I am just here for the ride




You know, the problem I really have is that most rejections of climate science are rooted in ideology that interferes with proposed solutions or with the effects of climate change. Those debates on solutions and effects are very real topics that deserve very real consideration and back and forth. There exists a great deal of uncertainty on economic, individual, and societal impacts and how we approach risk and mitigation is rooted in ideology for better or worse. The fact that we don't start there, and the starting point is the very premise of manmade global warming and climate change is just simply infuriating.

I would love to have discussion about things like the finer points of governmental expenditure propping up a fledgling renewable energy market and how that will effect jobs, growth, or even if the government should have a role. Or how the range of increased sea level rise based on different scenarios will affect local communities and why the poor are more at risk. Instead, we are here debating basic physical properties of gases and taking pride in our inefficient vehicles, or just looking the other way entirely.

I can't just go along for the ride, if I see the car careening towards a cliff, I jerk the wheel.
Some more responses on the encyclical:

Papal fan club takes to the media after encyclical
WP, By Kimberly Winston - Religion News Service June 18 at 3:30 PM
Rabbi Arthur Waskow, author of a rabbinical letter on climate change, said he can sum up his response to Pope Francis' groundbreaking encyclical on the environment in one word:
Hallelujah.
"When the spiritual leader of a billion people says climate change is a moral question, a religious question, then all of us who have been saying that for years are strengthened. I certainly feel strengthened, even though I come at it from a quite different religious perspective."
Not necessarily what you'd expect of a rabbi responding to the highest form of teaching the Catholic Church has - but emblematic of what many non-Catholics were saying after the encyclical, "Laudato Si'," was delivered Thursday (June 18). ...


Want to live like Pope Francis? 7 ways you can care for the environment.
WP, By Kerry Weber June 18 at 3:02 PM

THE LATEST: Obama welcomes pope's call for climate action

By The Associated Press, 9:45 p.m. (1945 GMT, 3:45 p.m. EDT)

The pope insists US politicians respond to climate change. Will they listen?
The Guardian, Sister Simone Campbell, Thursday 18 June 2015 19.41 BST

Pope's climate change stand gets uneasy reception in Catholic heartland of Poland
Source: Reuters - Thu, 18 Jun 2015 13:15 GMT
doing well with the day time heat

We are the cause of the degradation.

"The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life. A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system."

"These situations have caused sister earth, along with all the abandoned of our world, to cry out, pleading that we take another course. Never have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last two hundred years."
Tok River bridge has a cam and is showing water flowing .. couldn't find any thing at all on search so really wondering if the story is true .. some articles should have popped up ..

Current conditions at
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)
Lat: 27.91°NLon: 82.69°WElev: 3ft.


A Few Clouds

89°F

32°C
Humidity 72%
Wind Speed W 9 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.0 mb)
Dewpoint 79°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 104°F (40°C)
Last update 18 Jun 3:53 pm EDT


We just had a heavy down pour and the heat index is already back to 104, it's just gross. Earlier the heat index got to 107 and the high 94, even though the prediction was 92 and a 101 heat index. This has been the case for days, all forecasters keep showing lower numbers on highs and heat indices for the coastal areas than has actually happened. It's like they are assuming it will be lower without checking the results and seeing if it has really been true.

Whatever the case, it's a bit odd to me, but never the less, the heat continues. But at least thunderstorm coverage is increasing, and we finally got a decent amount of rain after 4 days without rain with the ridge in place.

Although I am not a believer of anything outside of a logical conclusion, I must admit that I am genuinely impressed with Pope Francis. He is bucking some strong headwinds to speak out toward justice and responsible stewardship of the earth. I am very proud of him!

As one of the original 100 who were selected to create Al Gore's first Climate Change Project in Nashville, TN, I have watched nothing short of insanity prevail in the realms of climate change and similar projects. ANYTHING that can be done to slow down this "puffin mentality" should be applauded.
We've been in a Florida type weather pattern.Hot humid and sunny one minute then rainy next with sun and hot humid conditions returning and then rain and clouds to follow...
Quoting 144. Grothar:
Our "better than Tampa" tropical storm shield here in Panama might take a hit if that develops. SW Caribbean storms can drive moisture over the continental divide - the Talamanca Mountain Range - onto the southern slopes. I live at 3,200" elevation on the eastern slope of 11,400 Volcan Baru, which extends southwards from the Talamanca mountains. Orographic lift can enhance rain from clouds that survive the journey over the Talamanca. I will be watching this carefully, but recognize that cyclogenesis models do not have high skill.

Although Panama is narrow, and the rivers are short and fairly steep, flooding can and has occurred here. The last major flooding in Boquete was in 2008, long before my arrival in early 2012.

Quoting 274. whitewabit:

Tok River bridge has a cam and is showing water flowing .. couldn't find any thing at all on search so really wondering if the story is true .. some articles should have popped up ..

Per the wumail I quoted, the 'oldtimer' said it's flowing to a certain point and then disappears into the river bed.

I just looked for webcam for the Tok on wu, but don't see one. Where did you find one?
Thank you Mr. Henson and Dr. Masters.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

We've been in a Florida type weather pattern.Hot humid and sunny one minute then rainy next with sun and hot humid conditions returning and then rain and clouds to follow...
It was sunny like 15 minutes ago then bang, a big thunderstorm. It will cool things down a bit from the heat.
Quoting 208. JRRP:


the wave will smell the dust



.....another one bites the dust
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Record low for Cleveland on Jul4 was 41 in 1968, two years after I left. I was feeling pretty smug, since the low in Los Angeles was something like 67. It got down into the 50's at least a couple of times each summer, usually right after a heatwave. Even if something 16 days out comes true, it won't be all the impressive to Clevelanders, who never put away their coats.


I remember forecasting frost (in exposed locations with poor air drainage only) five or six times in Central PA in June 1979. Sadly they all verified. The most extreme spots also had frost July 5 that year, a fairly typical year. But then that was it until September. My own garden in a reasonably exposed location had its last freeze May 17.
greater.antilles.needed.rain
Persistent convection on the eastern side of Bill really cooled sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.

While not Catholic, I am a Christian, think what the Pope has done will have a very powerful impact. In the vast majority of churches across America being Christian means having a right wing ideology and this certainly includes a bias strongly against AGW. Why, because it's what accepted. You know how it is in group settings, we go with the flow, and believe without seeking. Which is interesting because, as Christians, we had to seek to believe in Christ and faith in general. This was a very brave move, my hat is off to the Pope.
Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


u and gro are safe but that governor there he needs a little wake up call too nature


His ban on using the words 'climate change' goes against the science and the reality of what Florida can face before this century runs out. Most of the state can be catastrophically affected by rising sea levels and our Governor , as elected by the people, should start posturing the public for changes needed to protect the people and economy against what can occur in the coming decades as a result of rising sea levels.

What should become of oceanfront properties? Where should we locate major building and transportaton hubs in response to what I see as irreversable changes that will cause headchaes to our way of life in Florida?
El Nino is really starting to show now. All regions are either very close to 1C or at 1C above normal.

Quoting 285. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Persistent convection on the eastern side of Bill really cooled sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.




bill keeping gulf in check is all
mixing things up for the season

Quoting 286. DeepSeaRising:

While not Catholic, I am a Christian, think what the Pope has done will have a very powerful impact. In the vast majority of churches across America being Christian means having a right wing ideology and this certainly includes a bias strongly against AGW. Why, because it's what accepted. You know how it is in group settings, we go with the flow, and believe without seeking. Which is interesting because, as Christians, we had to seek to believe in Christ and faith in general. This was a very brave move, my hat is off to the Pope.


As a Christian also I completely agree, a lot of opposition towards climate change science is just a social thing that boils down to someone doing what most of their friends and family do. I've actually talked to a lot of friends and family members that thought it was a hoax amongst which are either Christian, conservative, or both, and they actually started to take it more seriously when I explained why it's factual and not some left wing conspiracy.

I say the only way to really change people is to make a point with love and care in letting people know, and for me, I really do.

My whole immediate family now takes global warming seriously when they once thought it was a hoax like many other Christian conservatives do after having some very good personal discussions about it.
Quoting 285. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Persistent convection on the eastern side of Bill really cooled sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.


Dang. We've had hurricanes that didn't do that. Makes you wonder if the airplanes missed something.
Quoting 215. vis0:

"Thrilla in QQQ"** WxU members pick the town name near by.
image host
** younings Search Thrilla in Manilla


And the winner is...
(drumroll)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@ ... drumbeat building
Vivid, but does not seem particularly germane ... how does it contribute to the 'science' of climate? There are some rather fundamental issues that seem to be taken as givens, yet one struggles to find evidence that experiments were properly replicated, or that axioms are even plausible.
For example, how plausible is temperature as a proxy for the thermal state of the troposphere, let alone the entire atmosphere? The 1st head of USGS seemed to suggest "not very", eg on p 421-422 of: https://books.google.com/books?id=MJQNAAAAYAAJ
The Earth's tears can be symbolized by melting glaciers.


study-alaskas-melting-mountain-glaciers-have-big- impact-sea-level-rise

And she is crying up a storm up here. We are having record breaking temps up here. Should interesting to see how much glacier melt there is this summer.
Quoting 283. georgevandenberghe:



I remember forecasting frost (in exposed locations with poor air drainage only) five or six times in Central PA in June 1979. Sadly they all verified. The most extreme spots also had frost July 5 that year, a fairly typical year. But then that was it until September. My own garden in a reasonably exposed location had its last freeze May 17.
Oh, yeah, my mom had a big garden, and I remember her out there crying at the end of June one year because a frost had killed all her tender vegetables. I don't remember a frost in July but I think there has been a frost every other month in Cleveland. If a cold front went through and it only got into the 50's at night but the daytime high was near 70, we considered ourselves lucky. every time there's a survey, Cleveland and Detroit battle it out for the most disagreeable climate in a major city. Cleveland won't even have that honor soon as the population heads for 350,000. Below that and it's classed as regional center instead of major metro area. It had 914,000 people in 1950, when I was a whippersnapper. It still had about 850,000 when I fled in 1966. What a disaster.
You can see the dust here.
Quoting 293. NanooVisotor:

@ ... drumbeat building
Vivid, but does not seem particularly germane ... how does it contribute to the 'science' of climate? There are some rather fundamental issues that seem to be taken as givens, yet one struggles to find evidence that experiments were properly replicated, or that axioms are even plausible.
For example, how plausible is temperature as a proxy for the thermal state of the troposphere, let alone the entire atmosphere? The 1st head of USGS seemed to suggest "not very", eg on p 421-422 of: https://books.google.com/books?id=MJQNAAAAYAAJ

This one's yours again, Hydrus. I can't write as good as you. :-0
Quoting 273. Xandra:

We are the cause of the degradation.

"The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life. A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system."

"These situations have caused sister earth, along with all the abandoned of our world, to cry out, pleading that we take another course. Never have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last two hundred years."


And many of us (who claim to be Christian and follow the teachings of Jesus) worship the God of Mammon and the dogma of unfettered captialism. But capitalism has never solved the problem of " the tradgedy of the commons" and I am puzzled why academics are silent about that.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

We've been in a Florida type weather pattern.Hot humid and sunny one minute then rainy next with sun and hot humid conditions returning and then rain and clouds to follow...
This is with 2" plus Precip Water Content as well. Very Florida like indeed.
Quoting 276. ParkerAtPeace:

Although I am not a believer of anything outside of a logical conclusion, I must admit that I am genuinely impressed with Pope Francis. He is bucking some strong headwinds to speak out toward justice and responsible stewardship of the earth. I am very proud of him!

As one of the original 100 who were selected to create Al Gore's first Climate Change Project in Nashville, TN, I have watched nothing short of insanity prevail in the realms of climate change and similar projects. ANYTHING that can be done to slow down this "puffin mentality" should be applauded.
Oh, man, you brought up the infamous AlGore. He's very fat, you know. He also reputedly has a $38,000 a month utility bill. That obviously negates everything he has ever said about AGW. Just wait, we have several people here who will tell you all about it....
YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0244
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
509 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 182108Z - 190138Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
OR REPEAT CONVECTIVE ROUNDS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA HAS LEAD TO LINES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM IL TO WV.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE FOR CONGEALING OF LINES FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TO WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...PLEASE REFER TO SPENES FOR ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...THESE PULSES WILL ACT AS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FOR UVVS OVER THE EVENING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUING
MOISTURE PUMPING INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE. THESE IMPULSES ARE
MOVING INTO INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE... ALLOWING FOR VERY DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING CELLS OR REPEAT TRACKS
WITH CONSECUTIVE WAVES. SLACKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS N
KENTUCKY FOR SLOWER CELL MOTIONS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER SINGLE CELL TOTALS WITH POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MERGERS. CELLS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD BE DEEP AND EFFICIENT
HAVING MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG AND TPWS OVER 1.75" NEAR OH/WV AND 2"
UPSTREAM IN IL...LIKELY PRODUCING RATES FROM 1.5-2"/HR.

CURRENTLY HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS... THOUGH ARW AND NMMB LOOK BEST
ORIENTED WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH BROAD 1-2" TOTALS AND POCKETS OF 3"+ LIKELY IN
LOCATIONS OF THE TRAINING EAST-WEST LINES. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX... PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON 39658637 39588453 39268303 38998226 38638188
37888164 37468216 37608300 37778424 37498661
37448824 37708898 39098901 39528767
Quoting 296. sar2401:

Oh, yeah, my mom had a big garden, and I remember her out there crying at the end of June one year because a frost had killed all her tender vegetables. I don't remember a frost in July but I think there has been a frost every other month in Cleveland. If a cold front went through and it only got into the 50's at night but the daytime high was near 70, we considered ourselves lucky. every time there's a survey, Cleveland and Detroit battle it out for the most disagreeable climate in a major city. Cleveland won't even have that honor soon as the population heads for 350,000. Below that and it's classed as regional center instead of major metro area. It had 914,000 people in 1950, when I was a whippersnapper. It still had about 850,000 when I fled in 1966. What a disaster.


I never had as much trouble with frost as when I gardened in Tallahassee, esp. in Spring. My tasseling corn and lettuce were destroyed in 1987 by an April 6 freeze and areas around me (not me) had frost April 19 or so in 1986. (1985 was uneventful)

In DC metro I never had trouble with spring frost although May 8, 1974 came close. October 3-4 1974 wiped out my fall tender crops several weeks early.. my worst fall frost experience here. I've had frost on heavily mulched plants in early May, mulch greatly increases frost vulnerability by perhaps 3-5F because it blocks warming from the soil so I treat that as my own mistake, not a weather insult. I don't mulch until Memorial day here even
in a climate as warm (hot! overall) aso DC metro
Quoting 269. LAbonbon:

Recently, while looking through some wunderphotos, I saw this one, and became intrigued. It's in Alaska, and the photographer is wondering why the river is bone dry. I asked if she minded if I asked the bloggers here for any input that could shed some light on this. She agreed and is interested in your feedback :)


WunderPhotographer katy99780 (Permission to re-post obtained)
Tuesday June 16, 2015
Tok, AK
Caption: Not a drop of water in the Tok River... where'd it all go? It has totally disappeared. Never in anyone's memory has this happened.

She shared, via wumail, the following:

"An oldtimer in the area, a reliable local historian, says he's never seen this happen in his 60-some years in the area. He is a pilot and has a remote cabin near the headwaters, and he said the river, though low at the headwaters, flows about halfway to this point where it empties into the Tanana River, and just disappears into the gravel riverbed. Probably (I'm guessing) due to quite low snowfall in the mountains last winter."

I couldn't locate the Tok River on a map, but it is a tributary of the Tanana River, near the headwaters, and seems to be relatively close to the Alaska/Yukon Territory (Canada) border. The Tanana flows northwest and empties into the Yukon. The Tanana River Wiki page references the Tok River.


(Source - Tanana River Wiki page)

By the way, she has some really beautiful photos posted of her corner of the world.
I think that's actually the Little Tok River. There's a fishing guide site for the Little Tok that makes no mention of the river being dry. The Little Tok empties into the Tok ,and some of the fishing sites describe it as shallow and only navigable by canoe. One of the posts at an outdoors forum mention that the Little Tok can be virtually dry at times. Don't know if I have the right river but it sounds right. The Tok is a much larger river, and I don't really see how it could go dry.
As a Florida resident for all of my life and politically savvy (with some insider info from time to time and my Father having been a former CIA operative), I was not impressed with Jeb Bush's tenure in this State as Governor and less impressed with Governor Scott and I was a life-time Republican until I switched out to Independent when the other Bush took us to war in Iraq the second time (post 911) without actionable and verifiable intelligence tying the two together. Just noting our current Governor's position on climate change ("don't mention it") and the current Presidential run by Jeb who is very pro-private sector and big business.....................Just noting, for weather and climate change purposes, that I would not expect much from these two on this issue (not getting my vote).
Just because the Pope didn't just use the Right's line of "I'm not a scientist, I don't know." many on the right are scrambling hard to discredit him now. It's a fruitless effort, this has started a real conversation in the Christian community world wide that will open eyes, open hearts, and open the path to seeking truth. He's done what 97% of climate scientists have struggled mightily against, a big business money driven effort to suppress the truth for financial gain backed by those in power; The Pope will have hundreds of thousands worldwide looking into what the truth really is on AGW. This truth is not a hard one to find nor to understand.
Quoting 293. NanooVisotor:

@ ... drumbeat building
Vivid, but does not seem particularly germane ... how does it contribute to the 'science' of climate? There are some rather fundamental issues that seem to be taken as givens, yet one struggles to find evidence that experiments were properly replicated, or that axioms are even plausible.
For example, how plausible is temperature as a proxy for the thermal state of the troposphere, let alone the entire atmosphere? The 1st head of USGS seemed to suggest "not very", eg on p 421-422 of: https://books.google.com/books?id=MJQNAAAAYAAJ


At low pressure (and 1 atm qualifies as low pressure) the behavior of a gas is closely approximated by the ideal gas equation, PV=nRT, where P=pressure, V=volume, n=number of molecules of gas present, expressed as a multiple of Avogadro's number, R=universal gas constant, T=temperature. This very much makes temperatue a proxy for the thermal state of the atmosphere.
the pope actually has a degree in chemistry. not that he's probably used it a ton, but he's more of a scientist than most all those guys.

Quoting 307. DeepSeaRising:

Just because the Pope didn't just use the Right's line of "I'm not a scientist, I don't know." many on the right are scrambling hard to discredit him now. It's a fruitless effort, this has started a real conversation in the Christian community world wide that will open eyes, open hearts, and open the path to seeking truth. He's done what 97% of climate scientists have struggled mightily against, a big business money driven effort to suppress the truth for financial gain backed by those in power; The Pope will have hundreds of thousands worldwide looking into what the truth really is on AGW. This truth is not a hard one to find nor to understand.
Quoting 221. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's currently 94F/34C with a heat index of 116F/47C. I can confidently say I've never felt it so hot before. Going outside is miserable.

Hurry up winter.

Now down to 81F with a heat index of 85F. Thank the weather gods for severe thunderstorms. :)
Quoting 253. yonzabam:



I can't believe the number of power outages you get in the most advanced country in the world. You'd think the electricity companies would have solved this problem a long time ago, but maybe the profit motive prevents investment in a more robust system. Better to just repair each outage than invest in expensive underground cables.

I live in south Scotland. We had many power outages in the 60s, but I haven't experienced one for more than 20 years. The UK population is much denser than in the US, so it's economical to put power lines underground. That said, there is a lot of overhead electricity power distribution here as well but only in the countryside, and nothing like the urban overhead power lines that I see in the US.

My outsider's view is that US power companies have a pretty cynical attitude to the suffering caused by power outages. If UK companies can bury urban power lines, why can't US companies?




Well it depends on the water table, burying power lines at least in much of Florida isn't practical due to a shallow water table, i.e., flooding will cause major problems.


Most urban areas in the U.S. do have buried power lines, and when torrential rains or storm surge happens, its a disaster. While buried lines is a great way to deal with damaging winds, it's not the end all solution. Any power linesman contractor will tell you that it's much more expensive and less practical to produce new buried lines as well as fix old deteriorating systems.

A good example of why buried power line systems are not always good was hurricane Sandy, it caused numerous fires, explosions, and potential zones of electrocution where there was flooding. It took much longer to replace these underground systems.

But such urban areas, buried power lines is really the only solution, as obviously we can't have 100 kV lines hanging next to sky scrapers, lol.

In Florida and rural areas at least, it makes more sense to have above ground lines, it's cheaper, easier and faster to fix, and easier to spot problems for future repairs. It's easier to do scheduled line maintenance as well.


The one draw back is, living in Florida, despite that power lines are grounded for lightning, it doesn't always work properly.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
528 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLC057-182145-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150618T2145Z/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-
528 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

AT 528 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
RIVERVIEW...OR NEAR BRANDON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRANDON...PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL...RIVERVIEW...PROGRESS VILLAGE...
BLOOMINGDALE...PALM RIVER...GIBSONTON AND BOYETTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2795 8241 2796 8230 2788 8224 2780 8239
2785 8239 2784 8241 2788 8240 2790 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 009DEG 10KT 2787 8233

$$


This is one nasty thunderstorm cell, it's across the Bay, more than 20 miles away and I'm getting to see incredible lightning all the way over here and essentially constant thunder the past 30 min.
Quoting 299. sar2401:

This one's yours again, Hydrus. I can't write as good as you. :-0


Come on he quoted a book from 1882, maybe that is the last time he read a book. Why read an introduction into Atmospheric Science and try to understand Earths energy budget, when you can be smug about the science without the effort. It is the old battle between intuition and the scientific method part infinty plus 1. They feel they are right and the Scientist are wrong, end of story. There will always be people who think they know things without studying and effort and time and so on. Their intuition is supreme.
As I wrote, Mr. Bill has swallowed that wimpy MCS whole.

The pope can make the case for the christian values response to manmade global warming. His message is a positive one on the subject in my opinion.

Many of the dangers of a warming climate are positive feedbacks that continue regardless of human morality. An Arctic becoming more and more blue during the summer is a scary one. 2012 was a particular scary year for summer Arctic ice extent. A quick comparison between now and then:



Note the snow coverage for 2015 is flawed.

This year looks more promising with the exception of a sort of tongue starting to develop into the central Arctic that is worrisome. A lot can happen between now and the September minimum so I will keep an eye on it.
Quoting 312. Jedkins01:



Well it depends on the water table, burying power lines at least in much of Florida isn't practical due to a shallow water table, i.e., flooding will cause major problems.


Most urban areas in the U.S. do have buried power lines, and when torrential rains or storm surge happens, its a disaster. While buried lines is a great way to deal with damaging winds, it's not the end all solution. Any power linesman contractor will tell you that it's much more expensive and less practical to produce new buried lines as well as fix old deteriorating systems.

A good example of why buried power line systems are not always good was hurricane Sandy, it caused numerous fires, explosions, and potential zones of electrocution where there was flooding. It took much longer to replace these underground systems.

But such urban areas, buried power lines is really the only solution, as obviously we can't have 100 kV lines hanging next to sky scrapers, lol.

In Florida and rural areas at least, it makes more sense to have above ground lines, it's cheaper, easier and faster to fix, and easier to spot problems for future repairs. It's easier to do scheduled line maintenance as well.


The one draw back is, living in Florida, despite that power lines are grounded for lightning, it doesn't always work properly.



But all the new developments have buried power lines. No problem in my neighborhood .
Quoting 305. sar2401:

I think that's actually the Little Tok River. There's a fishing guide site for the Little Tok that makes no mention of the river being dry. The Little Tok empties into the Tok ,and some of the fishing sites describe it as shallow and only navigable by canoe. One of the posts at an outdoors forum mention that the Little Tok can be virtually dry at times. Don't know if I have the right river but it sounds right. The Tok is a much larger river, and I don't really see how it could go dry.

Actually, I think I've found part of the answer in an old USGS bulletin from 1971. The Tok is perennial in part of the river, but runs only in summer in another part. Based on a comment by the photographer on another photo showing the same dry riverbed, this may be a portion of the river that normally is perennial. I'm sending her a wumail to see if I can get more specifics.

Honestly, the geological and hydrological interactions here are really interesting. I did see reference to the dry creek you're referring to, but I don't think it's the same one as the photo. I will try and get confirmation on that as well.

The USGS paper is scanned and available on Google, but some of the figures are hard to discern, in particular a map that show's the Tok's location. I did find some detailed topo maps, though.

I'll let you know when I'm done gathering a little more info. I might just end up emailing a geologist or a natural resources person with the state....
Quoting 318. SunnyDaysFla:



But all the new developments have buried power lines. No problem in my neighborhood .


My old 1970's era neighborhood in south florida has buried power lines.
Holy mackerel! A vicious little thunderstorm moving through now. Torrential rain and constant cloud to ground strike. Power's gone out for a couple seconds twice already. 0.75" of rain so far with a rain rate of 26.6" per hour . I'm not kidding. 41 mph gust and reports of trees and powerlines down all over the county. I'll be back when it's over.
Quoting 253. yonzabam:



I can't believe the number of power outages you get in the most advanced country in the world. You'd think the electricity companies would have solved this problem a long time ago, but maybe the profit motive prevents investment in a more robust system. Better to just repair each outage than invest in expensive underground cables.

I live in south Scotland. We had many power outages in the 60s, but I haven't experienced one for more than 20 years. The UK population is much denser than in the US, so it's economical to put power lines underground. ... My outsider's view is that US power companies have a pretty cynical attitude to the suffering caused by power outages. If UK companies can bury urban power lines, why can't US companies?


I think you partially answered your own question -- a denser population is easier to serve underground. While I have no doubt that cynicism plays a role, as it pretty much must in all capitalist/profit seeking projects, the biggest reasons we don't neatly bury everything over here are that we have a much larger population and a LOT more land area, some of it desert, some of it well-baked high plains, some of it extending into near tropical conditions, all places where electrical demands go through wild fluctuations, mostly to the high side. The sea-surrounded island climate of the British Isles is not comparable, as much as you struggle with your heating needs.

The Balkanized infrastructure that has developed in the history of our huge territory and population results in a lot of relatively small, almost shoe-string electrical grids out there -- wired irrevocably and potentially catastrophically into the overall system. These smaller operations often don't have the wherewithal make big capital improvements in their systems and/or would take forever to realize any profit on them. And as they are taking even part of their grids offline to make those improvements, they're straining the capabilities of the grids upstream and down.

You certainly wouldn't want to do it in the middle of the summer in the South (baking at about Gas Mark 4 here in Charleston. I really should be basted sometime in the next 30 minutes, or there will be no dinner at all...)
Quoting 237. Grothar:

I hope this doesn't mean that when I go to confession, I have to say I only get 17 mpg on my car.


You only get 17 mpg in this? I thought it would be harder on shoes per mile than gallons per mile. Who knew?
motoring along now

Quoting 321. sar2401:

Holy mackerel! A vicious little thunderstorm moving through now. Torrential rain and constant cloud to ground strike. Power's gone out for a couple seconds twice already. 0.75" of rain so far with a rain rate of 26.6" per hour . I'm not kidding. 41 mph gust and reports of trees and powerlines down all over the county. I'll be back when it's over.


We had a decent one come through, first rain in a while to cool us down. I'm looking to my north and it's dark. Cloud tops are pretty high with this batch.
Quoting 281. Climate175:

It was sunny like 15 minutes ago then bang, a big thunderstorm. It will cool things down a bit from the heat.


Very quick .75" in College Park. Now sunny again. Haven't stuck my nose out to see how humid it probably still is.
Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Now down to 81F with a heat index of 85F. Thank the weather gods for severe thunderstorms. :)
Until the power cuts off and a large tree branch is over the roof :)
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
545 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLC057-182245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0042.150618T2145Z-150618T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-
545 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 543 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
QUICKLY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORMS DISSIPATE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TAMPA...PLANT CITY...TEMPLE TERRACE...FISH HAWK...BRANDON...
RIVERVIEW...EAST LAKE-ORIENT PARK...PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL...
UNIVERSITY...LETTUCE LAKE PARK...NEW TAMPA...DOVER...SEFFNER...
ORIENT PARK...THONOTOSASSA...TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...VALRICO...
PALM RIVER...YBOR CITY AND PROGRESS VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&
Quoting 327. washingtonian115:

Until the power cuts off and a large tree branch is over the roof :)
well lets hope that don't happen
331. MahFL
The pressure is dropping at Fort Smith, AR, 1005.8Mb now.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLC019-107-182300-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0074.150618T2200Z-150618T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
PUTNAM FL-CLAY FL-
600 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 558 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORAHOME AND PUTNAM HALL. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
INTERLACHEN...FLORAHOME...GEORGE`S LAKE...MELROSE LANDING AND
PUTNAM HALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2961 8189 2969 8205 2994 8189 2989 8173

$$
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

FLZ045-053-144-182345-
OSCEOLA FL-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
615 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE...SOUTHWESTERN
ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 611 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES
CONVERGING ON THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL MERGE OVER SOUTHWEST ORANGE...NORTHWEST OSCEOLA...
AND SOUTH LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...OCOEE...WINTER GARDEN AND WINDERMERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

&&

Boo. Cell that blew through Florence/Darlington about 4:30 PM EST took a bunch of my roof with it. Nearby weather station recorded a gust of 55, but we were right along a line of maximum damage. I'm guessing 70 mph+. Blew a small compact off the road into a drainage ditch. The whole neighborhood was out checking their homes, but as far as I can tell I won the lottery.

Quoting 311. win1gamegiantsplease:

Yay


Quoting 319. LAbonbon:


Actually, I think I've found part of the answer in an old USGS bulletin from 1971. The Tok is perennial in part of the river, but runs only in summer in another part. Based on a comment by the photographer on another photo showing the same dry riverbed, this may be a portion of the river that normally is perennial. I'm sending her a wumail to see if I can get more specifics.

Honestly, the geological and hydrological interactions here are really interesting. I did see reference to the dry creek you're referring to, but I don't think it's the same one as the photo. I will try and get confirmation on that as well.

The USGS paper is scanned and available on Google, but some of the figures are hard to discern, in particular a map that show's the Tok's location. I did find some detailed topo maps, though.

I'll let you know when I'm done gathering a little more info. I might just end up emailing a geologist or a natural resources person with the state....
It's also important to remember that valley depth and peak flow rates can cause lots of such situations. The large flow rates during melt can carry a lot of gravel down to fill what had been a fairly deep valley that resulted from earlier very large flow rates. So the water is down there in the valley, and with fairly large rocks it probably can flow almost as fast as on the surface of a shallow valley. Thus when the flow rate drops to the capacity of the valley fill the water disappears from the surface. (Not a hydrologist! :-)
Quoting 323. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

You only get 17 mpg in this? I thought it would be harder on shoes per mile than gallons per mile. Who knew?

Probably 17 miles per gallon of beer.
Quoting 321. sar2401:

Holy mackerel! A vicious little thunderstorm moving through now. Torrential rain and constant cloud to ground strike. Power's gone out for a couple seconds twice already. 0.75" of rain so far with a rain rate of 26.6" per hour . I'm not kidding. 41 mph gust and reports of trees and powerlines down all over the county. I'll be back when it's over.


Be nice if we could get the ISS to zoom in on you in your back yard with your arms up and mouth open!
Congrats! We in Centex are still breathless from our rain luck. Bill is creating more storms as he's on the toll
road out of town now and we still have his tail.

Since this is the one day we get to mix God and AGW, God seems to have kept his promise to Noah never
to destroy the earth again with flooding (which I've always thought was comets splashing down) for 40
days and nights (don't panic, I believe the earth is 4.5 bil yrs old). Seems the earth has done OK keeping
its land masses hydrated until we learned how to mix concrete and make water bottles with H20 about
80 years ago, and got aviation so cheap that half the earth's population can afford to fly. Texas' growth
since the mid-90s and the recurring droughts/loss of water table really drove it home for me these last
five years. Now we're re-hydrated and having popcorn PM showers again that have been missing for
15 years now.
Quoting 323. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You only get 17 mpg in this? I thought it would be harder on shoes per mile than gallons per mile. Who knew?


You made me laugh out loud, and I'm at work! Oops!
I'm at my buddy's place on UNCW's campus, pretty gusty t-storm passing through now. If someone can remind me how to post thumbnails I shot a quick video on my phone.
Well, that was a surprise. Nothing on the radar an hour ago and now it's like Mr. Bill moved this way. If you look on radar now you can see the storm just through Eufaula with a tail over to storms in Georgia. It started at 1622 with a small dot on radar. By 1644, it was right over town, and had grown to 44,800 feet with a max reflectivity of 63 dbz. I lost power for about five minutes. I'm very surprised it wasn't longer. There's a tree down into Kendall Manor (pictured below), one of our oldest homes. That's about 1/4 mile west of me. I don't know how much damage has been done to the structure but it took down five power lines and snapped the pole at the base. There are many trees down on top of houses and at least one structure fire caused by lightning. The main fire department station doors are blocked by power lines and the wind apparently blew the radio tower on the roof down, forcing the fire department over on the police frequency. There's a report of a semi flipped over by the wind on Highway 431 north of town. This is one storm that intensified right over town instead of out in the county. The wind pruned yet another large limb from my battered Bradford pear. Other than that, just branches and leaf litter in the neighborhood that I can see. Total rain was 1.75", most of which fell in 15 minutes. The high rain rate was actually 27.15" per hour for a couple minutes. Amazing.

The storm is north of town and rapidly weakening. This is the third cell that has blown up and then died, but the first one to hit town. BMX was right on the ball as usual, issuing a special weather statement at 1659, 15 minutes after the storm started. Dunno what it would have taken for a STW. More storms are now on the Georgia side that do have STW's including right across the river from me. Nothing happened here though. :-)

Edit: Forgot the picture. It's a beautiful old home. Just got back from going up the road for a look. It's missing a pillar and a corner of the roof on the right hand porch now. It was a gigantic old oak that fell, and it could have been a lot worse.



Quoting 334. HaoleboySurfEC:

Boo. Cell that blew through Florence/Darlington about 4:30 PM EST took a bunch of my roof with it. Nearby weather station recorded a gust of 55, but we were right along a line of maximum damage. I'm guessing 70 mph+. Blew a small compact off the road into a drainage ditch. The whole neighborhood was out checking their homes, but as far as I can tell I won the lottery.



Sorry to hear that. Hope the damage can be contained and repaired quickly
Quoting 278. Xulonn:

Our "better than Tampa" tropical storm shield here in Panama might take a hit if that develops. SW Caribbean storms can drive moisture over the continental divide - the Talamanca Mountain Range - onto the southern slopes. I live at 3,200" elevation on the eastern slope of 11,400 Volcan Baru, which extends southwards from the Talamanca mountains. Orographic lift can enhance rain from clouds that survive the journey over the Talamanca. I will be watching this carefully, but recognize that cyclogenesis models do not have high skill.

Although Panama is narrow, and the rivers are short and fairly steep, flooding can and has occurred here. The last major flooding in Boquete was in 2008, long before my arrival in early 2012.



you obviously don't know about the Panamanian/Colombian Heat low then

no not expecting any tropical development within the next week or 2 but after than yeah possibly

Quoting 334. HaoleboySurfEC:

Boo. Cell that blew through Florence/Darlington about 4:30 PM EST took a bunch of my roof with it. Nearby weather station recorded a gust of 55, but we were right along a line of maximum damage. I'm guessing 70 mph+. Blew a small compact off the road into a drainage ditch. The whole neighborhood was out checking their homes, but as far as I can tell I won the lottery.




When I was looking at the satellite images the tallest clouds were directly southeast of Florence, I'm sorry to hear that.
little bit of action TD bill is losing all tropical characteristics
Quoting 334. HaoleboySurfEC:

Boo. Cell that blew through Florence/Darlington about 4:30 PM EST took a bunch of my roof with it. Nearby weather station recorded a gust of 55, but we were right along a line of maximum damage. I'm guessing 70 mph . Blew a small compact off the road into a drainage ditch. The whole neighborhood was out checking their homes, but as far as I can tell I won the lottery.


Darn. Too bad about the roof. Call your insurance company pronto so they can get a crew out there to tarp the roof. There's a low that has developed over central Georgia and many. Many outflow boundaries from SC to here. Any storms that initialize on those boundaries seem to blow up quickly and become severe even more quickly. I hope your NWS guys are better than BMX. Tallahassee and Atlanta have been issuing warnings like crazy. Pretty much business as usual in Birmingham.
Quoting 344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

little bit of action TD bill is losing all tropical characteristics

At least the WPC is no longer saying 72 hours until post-tropical. I can understand keeping the name yesterday but Bill is really getting long in the tooth to be a TD now.
Quoting 319. LAbonbon:


Actually, I think I've found part of the answer in an old USGS bulletin from 1971. The Tok is perennial in part of the river, but runs only in summer in another part. Based on a comment by the photographer on another photo showing the same dry riverbed, this may be a portion of the river that normally is perennial. I'm sending her a wumail to see if I can get more specifics.

Honestly, the geological and hydrological interactions here are really interesting. I did see reference to the dry creek you're referring to, but I don't think it's the same one as the photo. I will try and get confirmation on that as well.

The USGS paper is scanned and available on Google, but some of the figures are hard to discern, in particular a map that show's the Tok's location. I did find some detailed topo maps, though.

I'll let you know when I'm done gathering a little more info. I might just end up emailing a geologist or a natural resources person with the state....
I'll be interested to hear what you find. There's not much information about the Tok River on the web, that's for sure. If it turns out that part of that river really is perennial, I guess that's one more old-time historian with a faulty memory. ;-)
!!!! 26" per hour you sure?
Quoting 321. sar2401:

Holy mackerel! A vicious little thunderstorm moving through now. Torrential rain and constant cloud to ground strike. Power's gone out for a couple seconds twice already. 0.75" of rain so far with a rain rate of 26.6" per hour . I'm not kidding. 41 mph gust and reports of trees and powerlines down all over the county. I'll be back when it's over.
Good early evening everyone

It's 84, feeling like 90, and very hazy here on the island right now. The African dust is making its way here and really starting to show itself with the itchy eyes, sneezes....you get my drift. My webcams are starting to show the haziness Link

Haven't posted in so long but do pop in once in a while to see what is going on. I really hope that all is well with everyone!!

Lindy
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

MIC017-157-182330-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150618T2330Z/
BAY MI-TUSCOLA MI-
702 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BAY AND NORTHWESTERN TUSCOLA COUNTIES...


AT 701 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNGER...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF REESE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
QUANICASSEE AROUND 705 PM EDT.
AKRON AND FAIRGROVE AROUND 720 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WATROUSVILLE...GILFORD...WISNER AND COLLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 340. sar2401:

Well, that was a surprise. Nothing on the radar an hour ago and now it's like Mr. Bill moved this way. If you look on radar now you can see the storm just through Eufaula with a tail over to storms in Georgia. It started at 1622 with a small dot on radar. By 1644, it was right over town, and had grown to 44,800 feet with a max reflectivity of 63 dbz. I lost power for about five minutes. I'm very surprised it wasn't longer. There's a tree down into Kendall Manor (pictured below), one of our oldest homes. That's about 1/4 mile west of me. I don't know how much damage has been done to the structure but it took down five power lines and snapped the pole at the base. There are many trees down on top of houses and at least one structure fire caused by lightning. The main fire department station doors are blocked by power lines and the wind apparently blew the radio tower on the roof down, forcing the fire department over on the police frequency. There's a report of a semi flipped over by the wind on Highway 431 north of town. This is one storm that intensified right over town instead of out in the county. The wind pruned yet another large limb from my battered Bradford pear. Other than that, just branches and leaf litter in the neighborhood that I can see. Total rain was 1.75", most of which fell in 15 minutes. The high rain rate was actually 27.15" per hour for a couple minutes. Amazing.

The storm is north of town and rapidly weakening. This is the third cell that has blown up and then died, but the first one to hit town. BMX was right on the ball as usual, issuing a special weather statement at 1659, 15 minutes after the storm started. Dunno what it would have taken for a STW. More storms are now on the Georgia side that do have STW's including right across the river from me. Nothing happened here though. :-)





Wow that's quite a storm, unfortunately the severe thunderstorm east of me didn't make it here, but since there is a strong ridge producing subsidence over the area, after getting a decent thunderstorm earlier, I figured it would be too stable to overcome the subsidence again with another. It sounded like the apocalypse earlier southeast of Tampa with the insane amount of lightning, along with over 2-3 inches in less than an hour and severe reports of large hail and wind damage.

That thunderstorm and the one you recently experienced is a good example of what happens when a massive amount of CAPE from all this heat and high dew points overcomes the ridge subsidence. That's the one plus side to a ridge, there might be less thunderstorms, but if you get enough convergence to break through the ridge, look out.

Here's the worst of the heat around here today:

Tampa Peter O Knight airport:

18 14:35 SW 18 G 24 NA Partly Cloudy SCT050 temperature: 93 dewpoint: 81 67% NA heat index: 113 30.08 NA

Brandon(eastern suburb of Tampa, Vandenberg airport)

18 15:35 W 7 G 17 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT060 BKN075 temperature: 95 dewpoint: 77 56% NA heat index: 110 30.07 NA


Closest to my location(St. Petersberg/Clearwater airport):

18 12:53 Vrbl 6 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW030TCU temperature: 92 dewpoint: 77 62% NA heat index: 106 30.10 1019.3

MacDill Air Force Base:

18 14:58 SW 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW050 temperature: 91 dewpoint: 81 73% NA heat index: 111 30.08 1018.9





352. MahFL
Looks to me that TD Bill is tightening up a bit, the rain is being concentrated in a slightly smaller area at the center.
Quoting 352. MahFL:

Looks to me that TD Bill is tightening up a bit, the rain is being concentrated in a slightly smaller area at the center.
ya he is almost done be a swirl by midnight till heat of the day spins him up again tomorrow if he makes it that is

Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Now down to 81F with a heat index of 85F. Thank the weather gods for severe thunderstorms. :)
Yes, indeed. Down to 75 still humid but much more comfortable degrees. My high heat index was 121! Even more exciting is that it looks like we get even higher heights next week and the actual temperatures could go from 105 to 108 with equal humidity. The heat index would be...uhh, let's see...add the 5 and carry the 2...yep, 422 degrees. I'm pretty sure I did that right.
Quoting 327. washingtonian115:

Until the power cuts off and a large tree branch is over the roof :)

Power shut down just after my post and just now came back. Why'd you jinx it!? Lol.
Quoting 355. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Power shut down just after my post and just now came back. Why'd you jinx it!? Lol.
at least the tree did not hit the house
Quoting 353. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya he is almost done be a swirl by midnight till heat of the day spins him up again tomorrow if he makes it that is


He's fast becoming another Plains low instead of a flood monster. I expect that the WPC to drop Bill at the 10:00 update. It is almost summer though, so the low will still kick off convection tomorrow.
358. vis0
SAR2401 do you want to see currency history in the making?
Quoting 316. sar2401:

As I wrote, Mr. Bill has swallowed that wimpy MCS whole.




Sar,

How much rain is in those clouds popping up over New Mexico and the Rio Grand Valley?

Quoting 351. Jedkins01:




Wow that's quite a storm, unfortunately the severe thunderstorm east of me didn't make it here, but since there is a strong ridge producing subsidence over the area, after getting a decent thunderstorm earlier, I figured it would be too stable to overcome the subsidence again with another. It sounded like the apocalypse earlier southeast of Tampa with the insane amount of lightning, along with over 2-3 inches in less than an hour and severe reports of large hail and wind damage.

That thunderstorm and the one you recently experienced is a good example of what happens when a massive amount of CAPE from all this heat and high dew points overcomes the ridge subsidence. That's the one plus side to a ridge, there might be less thunderstorms, but if you get enough convergence to break through the ridge, look out.

Here's the worst of the heat around here today:

Tampa Peter O Knight airport:

18 14:35 SW 18 G 24 NA Partly Cloudy SCT050 temperature: 93 dewpoint: 81 67% NA heat index: 113 30.08 NA

Link


Brandon(eastern suburb of Tampa, Vandenberg airport)

18 15:35 W 7 G 17 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT060 BKN075 temperature: 95 dewpoint: 77 56% NA heat index: 110 30.07 NA


Closest to my location(St. Petersberg/Clearwater airport):

18 12:53 Vrbl 6 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW030TCU temperature: 92 dewpoint: 77 62% NA heat index: 106 30.10 1019.3

MacDill Air Force Base:

18 14:58 SW 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW050 temperature: 91 dewpoint: 81 73% NA heat index: 111 30.08 1018.9






Our CAPE today was 2550 to 3000 kj so plenty of that. As you say, it comes down to being able to moisten up that subsiding air at the mid-levels and being on the right side of a boundary when the convergence breaks through. It seems like Tallahassee and Atlanta get how fast these storm blow up. You can see how many warnings they issued on iembot. Birmingham issued two sig weather statements and went to dinner. This is the most scared I've ever seen Radar Dog. I thought the desk was shaking until I realized he was under there shaking like a leaf - and this started before the storm hit. He's why I checked the radar and thought "uh oh". Even the cats were jumping off the floor when we got a couple of our close strikes, and they never care about lightning. Other than the tornado outbreaks of 2007 and 2011, this is the most violent storm I've seen in the 10 years I've been here, and it was tiny. If you don't have a Radar Dog, it would be a good idea to check the radar frequently. :-)
Quoting 359. Qazulight:



Sar,

How much rain is in those clouds popping up over New Mexico and the Rio Grand Valley?


About equal to typical summer monsoon type storms. Nothing particularly bad but always capable of hail and high winds.
Quoting 358. vis0:

SAR2401 do you want to see currency history in the making?
Do you mean Greece, or do you have some other kind of nutty idea? :-)
I enjoyed the rain and evening cool-off, the tree frogs seem to love it more than me. Surely the other reptiles and wildlife around here enjoyed it as well. Snakes and gators gotta enjoy it more than sand and mud to cool of with right?
Quoting 336. riverat544:


Probably 17 miles per gallon of beer.


I do not think that Grothar drinks any alcoholic beverages. He does have a rather large wine cellar, but it is filled with vintage bottles of Welch's Grape Juice. He also has a room dedicated to his store of Twinkies. He filled the room half way with Twinkies, after Hurricane Andrew. He double downed on them when they quit making them and now he has a room full of Twinkies. :)
Quoting 348. TCweatherman:

!!!! 26" per hour you sure?
Yeah. That's an instantaneous measurement, so it's not indicative a one minute measurement, but it's a good indication how heavy the rain actually was. My one minute rate was still 6.72", so it was really coming down. Just like some of the storms in Texas yesterday, the storm only lasted 20 minutes, so I ended up with less than 2". Quite a storm no matter how you look at. Looks like you were left high and dry today.
Its been an extremely dry May and June down here in South Florida. There have been some local mets who link dry May and Junes to landfalling hurricanes late in the season. I'm wondering what the thoughts of others are? Very unusual to have this little rain in Broward and Dade.

one such theory:
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/20 05/04/28/54367.htm
Quoting 365. sar2401:

Yeah. That's an instantaneous measurement, so it's not indicative a one minute measurement, but it's a good indication how heavy the rain actually was. My one minute rate was still 6.72", so it was really coming down. Just like some of the storms in Texas yesterday, the storm only lasted 20 minutes, so I ended up with less than 2". Quite a storm no matter how you look at. Looks like you were left high and dry today.


Sounds like a classic Florida thunderstorm, insane rainfall rates but thankfully no upper level energy or shear means they are short lived due to updrafts being cutoff from strong down drafts, but you're in South Alabama, so you get your share of them too, lol.
Quoting 365. sar2401:

Yeah. That's an instantaneous measurement, so it's not indicative a one minute measurement, but it's a good indication how heavy the rain actually was. My one minute rate was still 6.72", so it was really coming down. Just like some of the storms in Texas yesterday, the storm only lasted 20 minutes, so I ended up with less than 2". Quite a storm no matter how you look at. Looks like you were left high and dry today.
Wow!! Man you need to report that for a world record!
Quoting 366. floridabuckeyes:

Its been an extremely dry May and June down here in South Florida. There have been some local mets who link dry May and Junes to landfalling hurricanes late in the season. I'm wondering what the thoughts of others are? Very unusual to have this little rain in Broward and Dade.

one such theory:
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/20 05/04/28/54367.htm


Yeah it's a bit weird to say the least, and a bit concerning. We tend to have unusually hot summers here in Central FL when there is significant hurricane activity visiting the state as well. Hopefully it's merely coincidence.
Manna from Heaven in Alabama?

Gee?
Quoting 315. ChrisHamburg:



Come on he quoted a book from 1882, maybe that is the last time he read a book. Why read an introduction into Atmospheric Science and try to understand Earths energy budget, when you can be smug about the science without the effort. It is the old battle between intuition and the scientific method part infinty plus 1. They feel they are right and the Scientist are wrong, end of story. There will always be people who think they know things without studying and effort and time and so on. Their intuition is supreme.
You did good getting through that post. It was hard enough for a native English speaker to understand. It's really amazing that we can have this guy come in at this late date and suggest that 200 years of experiments were never properly duplicated. The guy who wrote the book in the link, Grove Gilbert was never the head of the USGS, except for a short stint as acting director. He can't even get that part right. How plausible is it that he just happened to be cruising through Google books and found that 1882 book that Gilbert wrote? Then he gives a link to the book with no page reference to where Gilbert claimed anything about temperature as a proxy for the thermal state of the troposphere. I guess we're supposed to plow through all 591 pages looking for it, but you can't, because it's just a preview. No, he had no idea what he's talking about. I'll bet you the next mortgage payment that the link came from some other post on a denier site somewhere. He then wrapped some snarky scientificy sounding blather around it to show that AGW is "vivid" but just not true. He no more knows anything about Gilbert and his work than I'm good friends with one of those Kardashian babes. :-)
372. txjac
Quoting 362. sar2401:

Do you mean Greece, or do you have some other kind of nutty idea? :-)


Which woman on the $10 bill?
Quoting 368. Tornado6042008X:

Wow!! Man you need to report that for a world record!
Do you have a weather station? If not, you probably don't understand this. The one minute rate means the average rain rate just for one minute. That's not particularly high. It has nothing to do with how much rain might fall in any other period or for the storm. To be a record, it would have to be a measure of how much rain was actually in the gauge in one minute, not a measure of rain hitting a sensor for one minute. At the time I had the 6.72" rain rate, I had .46" in the gauge.
Quoting 372. txjac:



Which woman on the $10 bill?
It's going to be Hilary Clinton!!!
Could you see my shingles?

Quoting 343. win1gamegiantsplease:



When I was looking at the satellite images the tallest clouds were directly southeast of Florence, I'm sorry to hear that.
Quoting 341. ACSeattle:


Sorry to hear that. Hope the damage can be contained and repaired quickly


Thanks.
Quoting 355. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Power shut down just after my post and just now came back. Why'd you jinx it!? Lol.
Lol.We had some server storms rattle through earlier with some small hail and the lights did go out for about 10 minutes.I've been more on alert ever since that Derecho ran through here 3 years ago and tor off a large tree branch that barely missed the house.
Thanks for the good advice. Damage probably below my deductible but I already have a call into them. Looks like shingles only. Caught the edge and peeled back a large section like a tin can. I have no idea how strong that gust was but my neighbors perfectly healthy oak snapped in half. Lots of snapped trees along the main road into our subdivision. Lots of roof damage around the area. Kids pets surfboards ok.

Quoting 345. sar2401:

Darn. Too bad about the roof. Call your insurance company pronto so they can get a crew out there to tarp the roof. There's a low that has developed over central Georgia and many. Many outflow boundaries from SC to here. Any storms that initialize on those boundaries seem to blow up quickly and become severe even more quickly. I hope your NWS guys are better than BMX. Tallahassee and Atlanta have been issuing warnings like crazy. Pretty much business as usual in Birmingham.
"It was unusually hot all over the world, including 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average in Alaska."
NOAA report for May.

It was 84F degrees in Fairbanks today. 2F degrees short of the record , and 11F degrees above average.

The 10 day forecast -
Link

Note the night time lows , then scroll down to the Almanac.
Quoting 366. floridabuckeyes:

Its been an extremely dry May and June down here in South Florida. There have been some local mets who link dry May and Junes to landfalling hurricanes late in the season. I'm wondering what the thoughts of others are? Very unusual to have this little rain in Broward and Dade.

one such theory:
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/20 05/04/28/54367.htm
Your link didn't work but this link will. Just for future reference, you have to use the link button and paste the link there, if you do it directly, this site will wreck the link every time.

Did you notice the date on that article? April 2005. Lushine's theory is that a normally wet May protects Florida from hurricanes. This is what rainfall in south Florida looked like May 2005 -



Some parts dry, some parts wet but overall, near normal, except for the Everglades and the Miami area. Lushine doesn't really define "south Florida" but I think near average is close enough as a whole. So, how did storm avoidance turn out? Pretty good, except for one named Wilma. Direct hit on south Florida. Most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

Here's what I think happened. Lushine had been a forecaster for 33 years in Miami at that time. He probably had an idea that, somehow, hurricanes were more common when there was some dry month before hurricane season. He started looking at May, the month before hurricane season and, sure enough, there it was.Three times more common with a dry May. The problem is that, if you wanted to start to prove causation, you'd need to look at April, since we do get storms in May. Then, what about June itself, since it's equally close to May, and Florida doesn't normally get many storms in June. What about July? Wet or dry have any effect on hurricanes in the most active months? You'd then need to propose some mechanism that informed hurricanes in advance if it was dry in any of those months, and that was the signal to flatten Miami.

I think what happened is Lushine, in a well meaning way, discovered a random correlation between two completely separate events and assigned a cause that doesn't exist. There are millions of random correlations that can be found every day. When I was a stat student, we looked up the number of donkeys sold in Texas every year. We then got the number of PhD's issued by Ivy League schools every year. When we ran the correlation numbers, there was a clear correlation. Even more weird was that this correlation existed for nine of the last ten years. So, would I propose a theory that the number of jackasses sold in Texas is a cause of Harvard issuing PhD's? It's really not much more silly than a dry May spells hurricane doom for south Florida.
Quoting 378. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks for the good advice. Damage probably below my deductible but I already have a call into them. Looks like shingles only. Caught the edge and peeled back a large section like a tin can. I have no idea how strong that gust was but my neighbors perfectly healthy oak snapped in half. Lots of snapped trees along the main road into our subdivision. Lots of roof damage around the area. Kids pets surfboards ok.


From my damage assessment days, I think I remember that 60 to 80 mph is the usual range for shingle peeling, more in the lower range from your description of the damage. Trees snapped is in the upper end of the range. So that was a pretty bad storm, especially since we didn't even make the marginal category at the SPC until after the storms initiated. At least it sounds like the important things made it though okay.
Quoting 367. Jedkins01:



Sounds like a classic Florida thunderstorm, insane rainfall rates but thankfully no upper level energy or shear means they are short lived due to updrafts being cutoff from strong down drafts, but you're in South Alabama, so you get your share of them too, lol.
Yeah, south Alabama and the Panhandle (which rightfully belongs to Alabama until you guys stole it) has a lot of similarities to central Florida weather. Except for those seabreeze storms and intense lightning, which even the Panhandle doesn't get much of, most of our weather is quite similar. It's been interesting to watch our frontal rain and winter weather compared to yours. I'm a good proxy for if cold air is going to get to you and if a front is going to make it. Usually within 24 hours of us getting cooler weather, you get it, although more modified by the trip south. If I get a strong front pass through here, you'll get it 24 hours later. It's hotter in summer and colder in winter here but the patterns are really similar.
After another significant heavy rain event, another polar air mass arrives in South Brazil. Now (10:30 pm), here in Porto Alegre we already have 7ºC, forecast to have 2ºC or 3ºC tomorrow morning.
In Bom Jardim da Serra, state of Santa Catarina, now they have 1ºC with winds around 35 mph, resulting in wind chill of -17ºC/1,4ºF. Earlier today the winds reached 65 mph:
The wind chill in Florianópolis (capital of Santa Catarina state) is 4ºC.

Look this graphic from Environmental Resource Center Information and Hydrometeorology of Santa Catarina's twitter
(Epagri/Ciram):


Link





Less than 3 days for the Winter.

~The Winter is Coming~
Quoting 380. sar2401:

Your link didn't work but this link will. Just for future reference, you have to use the link button and paste the link there, if you do it directly, this site will wreck the link every time.

Did you notice the date on that article? April 2005. Lushine's theory is that a normally wet May protects Florida from hurricanes. This is what rainfall in south Florida looked like May 2005 -



Some parts dry, some parts wet but overall, near normal, except for the Everglades and the Miami area. Lushine doesn't really define "south Florida" but I think near average is close enough as a whole. So, how did storm avoidance turn out? Pretty good, except for one named Wilma. Direct hit on south Florida. Most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

Here's what I think happened. Lushine had been a forecaster for 33 years in Miami at that time. He probably had an idea that, somehow, hurricanes were more common when there was some dry month before hurricane season. He started looking at May, the month before hurricane season and, sure enough, there it was.Three times more common with a dry May. The problem is that, if you wanted to start to prove causation, you'd need to look at April, since we do get storms in May. Then, what about June itself, since it's equally close to May, and Florida doesn't normally get many storms in June. What about July? Wet or dry have any effect on hurricanes in the most active months? You'd then need to propose some mechanism that informed hurricanes in advance if it was dry in any of those months, and that was the signal to flatten Miami.

I think what happened is Lushine, in a well meaning way, discovered a random correlation between two completely separate events and assigned a cause that doesn't exist. There are millions of random correlations that can be found every day. When I was a stat student, we looked up the number of donkeys sold in Texas every year. We then got the number of PhD's issued by Ivy League schools every year. When we ran the correlation numbers, there was a clear correlation. Even more weird was that this correlation existed for nine of the last ten years. So, would I propose a theory that the number of jackasses sold in Texas is a cause of Harvard issuing PhD's? It's really not much more silly than a dry May spells hurricane doom for south Florida.
Quoting 373. sar2401:

Do you have a weather station? If not, you probably don't understand this. The one minute rate means the average rain rate just for one minute. That's not particularly high. It has nothing to do with how much rain might fall in any other period or for the storm. To be a record, it would have to be a measure of how much rain was actually in the gauge in one minute, not a measure of rain hitting a sensor for one minute. At the time I had the 6.72" rain rate, I had .46" in the gauge.
So 6.72" per hour during a one minute period?
Quoting 380. sar2401:

Your link didn't work but this link will. Just for future reference, you have to use the link button and paste the link there, if you do it directly, this site will wreck the link every time.

Did you notice the date on that article? April 2005. Lushine's theory is that a normally wet May protects Florida from hurricanes. This is what rainfall in south Florida looked like May 2005 -



Some parts dry, some parts wet but overall, near normal, except for the Everglades and the Miami area. Lushine doesn't really define "south Florida" but I think near average is close enough as a whole. So, how did storm avoidance turn out? Pretty good, except for one named Wilma. Direct hit on south Florida. Most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

Here's what I think happened. Lushine had been a forecaster for 33 years in Miami at that time. He probably had an idea that, somehow, hurricanes were more common when there was some dry month before hurricane season. He started looking at May, the month before hurricane season and, sure enough, there it was.Three times more common with a dry May. The problem is that, if you wanted to start to prove causation, you'd need to look at April, since we do get storms in May. Then, what about June itself, since it's equally close to May, and Florida doesn't normally get many storms in June. What about July? Wet or dry have any effect on hurricanes in the most active months? You'd then need to propose some mechanism that informed hurricanes in advance if it was dry in any of those months, and that was the signal to flatten Miami.

I think what happened is Lushine, in a well meaning way, discovered a random correlation between two completely separate events and assigned a cause that doesn't exist. There are millions of random correlations that can be found every day. When I was a stat student, we looked up the number of donkeys sold in Texas every year. We then got the number of PhD's issued by Ivy League schools every year. When we ran the correlation numbers, there was a clear correlation. Even more weird was that this correlation existed for nine of the last ten years. So, would I propose a theory that the number of jackasses sold in Texas is a cause of Harvard issuing PhD's? It's really not much more silly than a dry May spells hurricane doom for south Florida.
Quoting 380. sar2401:

Your link didn't work but this link will. Just for future reference, you have to use the link button and paste the link there, if you do it directly, this site will wreck the link every time.

Did you notice the date on that article? April 2005. Lushine's theory is that a normally wet May protects Florida from hurricanes. This is what rainfall in south Florida looked like May 2005 -



Some parts dry, some parts wet but overall, near normal, except for the Everglades and the Miami area. Lushine doesn't really define "south Florida" but I think near average is close enough as a whole. So, how did storm avoidance turn out? Pretty good, except for one named Wilma. Direct hit on south Florida. Most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

Here's what I think happened. Lushine had been a forecaster for 33 years in Miami at that time. He probably had an idea that, somehow, hurricanes were more common when there was some dry month before hurricane season. He started looking at May, the month before hurricane season and, sure enough, there it was.Three times more common with a dry May. The problem is that, if you wanted to start to prove causation, you'd need to look at April, since we do get storms in May. Then, what about June itself, since it's equally close to May, and Florida doesn't normally get many storms in June. What about July? Wet or dry have any effect on hurricanes in the most active months? You'd then need to propose some mechanism that informed hurricanes in advance if it was dry in any of those months, and that was the signal to flatten Miami.

I think what happened is Lushine, in a well meaning way, discovered a random correlation between two completely separate events and assigned a cause that doesn't exist. There are millions of random correlations that can be found every day. When I was a stat student, we looked up the number of donkeys sold in Texas every year. We then got the number of PhD's issued by Ivy League schools every year. When we ran the correlation numbers, there was a clear correlation. Even more weird was that this correlation existed for nine of the last ten years. So, would I propose a theory that the number of jackasses sold in Texas is a cause of Harvard issuing PhD's? It's really not much more silly than a dry May spells hurricane doom for south Florida.


that is hilarious....I get your point. I love reading your posts Sar. I'm just saying its been unusually dry...and some years that's a bad sign. Thanks for insight!
Quoting 316. sar2401:

As I wrote, Mr. Bill has swallowed that wimpy MCS whole.




dat convection blowup in texas, new mexico, and colorado tho
For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities-his eternal power and divine nature-have been clearly seen,being understood from what has been made,so that men are without excuse.Romans 1:20Have a blessed day and remember Jesus died for YOU!!
Quoting 316. sar2401:

As I wrote, Mr. Bill has swallowed that wimpy MCS whole.




A ghost has popped up to the west of Bill and said "Boo!"

Creepy convection pattern.
Quoting 371. sar2401:

You did good getting through that post. It was hard enough for a native English speaker to understand. It's really amazing that we can have this guy come in at this late date and suggest that 200 years of experiments were never properly duplicated. The guy who wrote the book in the link, Grove Gilbert was never the head of the USGS, except for a short stint as acting director. He can't even get that part right. How plausible is it that he just happened to be cruising through Google books and found that 1882 book that Gilbert wrote? Then he gives a link to the book with no page reference to where Gilbert claimed anything about temperature as a proxy for the thermal state of the troposphere. I guess we're supposed to plow through all 591 pages looking for it, but you can't, because it's just a preview. No, he had no idea what he's talking about. I'll bet you the next mortgage payment that the link came from some other post on a denier site somewhere. He then wrapped some snarky scientificy sounding blather around it to show that AGW is "vivid" but just not true. He no more knows anything about Gilbert and his work than I'm good friends with one of those Kardashian babes. 
Quoting 392. floridaT:


wow sar admitted there's someone he doesn't know. I"m still waiting for a world event he hasn't witnessed or a place he hasn't been




Well, something in His life was traumatic I can assure you with all the projection in jocular form we get.

But no harm no foul.

The price for wisdom, is age.

Quoting 393. Patrap:

point taken  your right
Quoting 389. help4u:

For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities-his eternal power and divine nature-have been clearly seen,being understood from what has been made,so that men are without excuse.Romans 1:20Hve a blessed day and remember Jesus died for YOU!!


A. If God writes all the rules. And he can change them at will.

B. Why did he need Jesus to die ? Why send Allaha ?

C. He could have just snapped just fingers. And changed the heart of man.

You need to read the Aztec Conquest , they caught their victims live . Peeled their skins off , wore them like capes, cut open their chests, and exposed beating hearts to the Sun. In the "Belief" that this would keep the Sun coming up , and rain would come.

help4u:

If History has us taught any thing , the crazier the idea the more humans love it.
anyone notice how cold the waters are off the Northern Yucatan?

Quoting 372. txjac:



Which woman on the $10 bill?


Sadie Thompson.
Quoting 397. Grothar:

anyone notice how cold the waters are off the Northern Yucatan?




They were cold even before Bill. The question is why?
The carbon banks are in place and the ultra rich are looking forward to enriching themselves even more through this false teaching.
Quoting 398. Grothar:



Sadie Thompson.


Hey, that's my great-great-great (maybe one more) grandfather on there!
help4u:

If History has us taught any thing , the crazier the idea the more humans love it.

See the Mid East today. They cut peoples heads off in the name of God.
Quoting 364. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I do not think that Grothar drinks any alcoholic beverages. He does have a rather large wine cellar, but it is filled with vintage bottles of Welch's Grape Juice. He also has a room dedicated to his store of Twinkies. He filled the room half way with Twinkies, after Hurricane Andrew. He double downed on them when they quit making them and now he has a room full of Twinkies. :)


True. I do not imbibe. I only tasted beer once when I first went into the army. The only time. Trust me, no one can look as good as I do at my age and drink. (And it wasn't Twinkies, it was Little Debbie Swiss rolls)
Quoting 400. cwjessop:

The carbon banks are in place and the ultra rich are looking forward to enriching themselves even more through this false teaching.


What false teaching?
Quoting 399. SunnyDaysFla:



They were cold even before Bill. The question is why?


I don't know. It has been that way for a while.
Quoting 398. Grothar:



Sadie Thompson.

It's a $20 bill....and it's probably going to be Harriet Tubman replacing(quickly checks pocket to see if I have any $20's)..... Andrew Jackson.
Quoting 407. CosmicEvents:


It's a $20 bill....and it's probably going to be Harriet Tubman replacing(quickly checks pocket to see if I have any $20's)..... Andrew Jackson.


Nope---the treasury announced the $10.
The rains finally came today, breaking the brutally hot afternoon. We received a little over an inch here with some breezy/gusty winds and a few close lightning strikes. Really a garden variety thunderstorm by historical Central FL standards but every green thing I own is incredibly happy to finally get some natural water. Here's hoping for one more good rain before it dries up again next week.
Quoting 391. LostTomorrows:



A ghost has popped up to the west of Bill and said "Boo!"

Creepy convection pattern.
It's actually looking more like a typical summer's night convection pattern now. Bill is being absorbed into that broad front - but not completely. The next question is does he take the detour to Canada or go straight east to Virginia? Time will tell but I'm on the side of Canada.
Quoting 409. HurrMichaelOrl:

The rains finally came today, breaking the brutally hot afternoon. We received a little over an inch here with some breezy/gusty winds and a few close lightning strikes. Really a garden variety thunderstorm by historical Central FL standards but every green thing I own is incredibly happy to finally get some natural water. Here's hoping for one more good rain before it dries up again next week.
It's nice when we finally get some rain and a least a little break from this horrendous heat. The thunderstorm here was a little more than I bargained for but I'll still take it. Now have 1.72" in the bank for the upcoming even worse heat.
Quoting 403. Grothar:



True. I do not imbibe. I only tasted beer once when I first went into the army. The only time. Trust me, no one can look as good as I do at my age and drink. (And it wasn't Twinkies, it was Little Debbie Swiss rolls)


The only reason that I drink now is because of the image that I see in my mirror. Do you mean to say that I could have avoided the drinking now if I had not been drinking when I was younger? You picked a fine time to tell me that.
wonder if something might be trying to kick up right near where bill formed? close to the Yucatan.
Quoting 387. floridabuckeyes:



that is hilarious....I get your point. I love reading your posts Sar. I'm just saying its been unusually dry...and some years that's a bad sign. Thanks for insight!
Thank you. Yeah, south Florida is one of few places around the Southeast that's headed into drought. In some years, raising the price of Little Debbie cakes is also a bad sign, but there just hasn't been much a proven link between Little Debbie and hurricanes. Is this the year Little Debbie will take out her wrath on Miami? Hard to tell. :-) In truth though, the very same conditions that have kept you so dry is also your best protection against a hurricane. That wall of high pressure in the Atlantic is going to make it nearly impossible for anything coming from there to attack you. The biggest risk in the near term is a storm from the Caribbean, but it needs to take a narrow path north over Cuba to survive the high shear that exists further east. At least in the near term, south Florida is probably the least likely to see a hurricane.
These don't always tell the full story. If there is any appreciable rain in county, it is included. The coastal areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade, have received hardly any precipitation. It has rained in the interior sections.

Quoting 401. GeoffreyWPB:



Hey, that's my great-great-great (maybe one more) grandfather on there!


You know Geoff. I actually remember that now.
Quoting 340. sar2401:

Well, that was a surprise. Nothing on the radar an hour ago and now it's like Mr. Bill moved this way. If you look on radar now you can see the storm just through Eufaula with a tail over to storms in Georgia. It started at 1622 with a small dot on radar. By 1644, it was right over town, and had grown to 44,800 feet with a max reflectivity of 63 dbz. I lost power for about five minutes. I'm very surprised it wasn't longer. There's a tree down into Kendall Manor (pictured below), one of our oldest homes. That's about 1/4 mile west of me. I don't know how much damage has been done to the structure but it took down five power lines and snapped the pole at the base. There are many trees down on top of houses and at least one structure fire caused by lightning. The main fire department station doors are blocked by power lines and the wind apparently blew the radio tower on the roof down, forcing the fire department over on the police frequency. There's a report of a semi flipped over by the wind on Highway 431 north of town. This is one storm that intensified right over town instead of out in the county. The wind pruned yet another large limb from my battered Bradford pear. Other than that, just branches and leaf litter in the neighborhood that I can see. Total rain was 1.75", most of which fell in 15 minutes. The high rain rate was actually 27.15" per hour for a couple minutes. Amazing.

The storm is north of town and rapidly weakening. This is the third cell that has blown up and then died, but the first one to hit town. BMX was right on the ball as usual, issuing a special weather statement at 1659, 15 minutes after the storm started. Dunno what it would have taken for a STW. More storms are now on the Georgia side that do have STW's including right across the river from me. Nothing happened here though. :-)

Edit: Forgot the picture. It's a beautiful old home. Just got back from going up the road for a look. It's missing a pillar and a corner of the roof on the right hand porch now. It was a gigantic old oak that fell, and it could have been a lot worse.


Lucky you, for where I am in the stretch between Panama City and Pensacola, while there may be good storms firing to the north, forget it if you live south of I-10, not a cloud in the sky the entire day.
Quoting 412. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The only reason that I drink now is because of the image that I see in my mirror. Do you mean to say that I could have avoided the drinking now if I had not been drinking when I was younger? You picked a fine time to tell me that.


In your case, I don't think it would matter either way :)
000
WTNT32 KWNH 190313
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 20 MILES...32 KM...E OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM
WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...RAINBANDS REMAIN ACTIVE AROUND THE CENTER OF BILL
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL-FORMED THIS EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF BILL HAS RISEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND WIND
GUSTS HAVE MODERATED TO 30 MPH OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
Quoting 419. Grothar:



In your case, I don't think it would matter either way :)


Well that is a relief. I think. One thing for certain is that I cannot make it any worse now. :) I can get rid of my mirror. It is everyone else that has to look at me.
ATL: TD Bill will still bring some rain across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and the surrounding areas as it gets weaker. It is starting to die off right now and should become post-tropical in 24 hours or so.

WP: 91W is looking disorganIzed but it has a lot of convection working for it over the LLC and it may develop if it moves Northward as the models predict.

Read more...
I'm sorry, but this is just nuts. Bill is no longer tropical. He's at least merging with a frontal zone. The rain bands are much weaker than they were 12 hours ago. They've become "slightly less well formed this evening"? The winds are only 20 mph. There are no scattered bands of thunderstorms extending to the Gulf coast from Bill any longer. Almost all the flood warnings are either runoff after the rain has ended or for mainstem rivers. It's almost like they are copying and pasting from the previous forecast. Now they moved the post tropical out from 12 hours at 4:00 to 48 hours again? Based on what? And why are they even including 72 hours if it's post tropical at 48 hours?

I'm not so sure giving this job to the WPC was such a good idea.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...E OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM
WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...RAINBANDS REMAIN ACTIVE AROUND THE CENTER OF BILL
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL-FORMED THIS EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF BILL HAS RISEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND WIND
GUSTS HAVE MODERATED TO 30 MPH OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 19/0300Z 35.9N 93.8W
12HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 91.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/0000Z 37.3N 88.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 20/1200Z 38.1N 86.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 82.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 39.5N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
Quoting 421. FIUStormChaser:

000
WTNT32 KWNH 190313
TCPAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 20 MILES...32 KM...E OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Wait a minute. What is the story with this? My copy and paste was after FIU posted the advisory. If you look at what I got at #425, the pressure is 1004, not 1005. Which one is the real 10:00 advisory? The WPC doesn't seem at all up to this job.
Quoting 418. opal92nwf:


Lucky you, for where I am in the stretch between Panama City and Pensacola, while there may be good storms firing to the north, forget it if you live south of I-10, not a cloud in the sky the entire day.
The good news is that there's an area of lower pressure that formed over Georgia this afternoon that may help you tomorrow. The bad news is the almost complete lack of outflow boundaries at the coast. The driest subsiding air at the mid-levels is right over the coast. It looked pretty hopeless for me until this afternoon too though, so maybe tomorrow breaks the tend.
Quoting 414. sarahjola:

wonder if something might be trying to kick up right near where bill formed? close to the Yucatan.
Let's go right to the source and see what they think of that -

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
INTO THE GULF NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION
BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CENTERED OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH IS RACING OFF THE W COAST OF THE
YUCATAN AND AT 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N90W ALONG 20N92W
INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THIS BOUNDARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE
E GULF TO 92W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87W. A SEABREEZE
TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG A LINE FROM NAPLES JUST W
OF ORLANDO TO JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE
GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 409. HurrMichaelOrl:

The rains finally came today, breaking the brutally hot afternoon. We received a little over an inch here with some breezy/gusty winds and a few close lightning strikes. Really a garden variety thunderstorm by historical Central FL standards but every green thing I own is incredibly happy to finally get some natural water. Here's hoping for one more good rain before it dries up again next week.

98 degrees today in Sanford and again no rain, so still stuck at 2.88" for June. BOOO!!! Rain, needed, badly!!
Quoting 400. cwjessop:

The carbon banks are in place and the ultra rich are looking forward to enriching themselves even more through this false teaching.
How do I open an account at the carbon bank? Do they give away a free toaster or something if I do?

Oh, wait, do you mean the carbon banks set up the NWO and those people of a certain religion that are going to fleece us out of all our money just before they declare martial law, confiscate all our guns, and haul us off to FEMA concentration camps? Oh, those banks.
Quoting 429. sanflee76:


98 degrees today in Sanford and again no rain, so still stuck at 2.88" for June. BOOO!!! Rain, needed, badly!!



I can totally empathize, that is where I will be once again in a few days I'm sure.
Quoting 402. ColoradoBob1:

help4u:

If History has us taught any thing , the crazier the idea the more humans love it.

See the Mid East today. They cut peoples heads off in the name of God.


True, we just burned them at the stake or gave them smallpox-infected blankets. We're much more civilized now.
433. vis0

Quoting 316. sar2401:

As I wrote, Mr. Bill has swallowed that wimpy MCS whole.


i disagree i think Bill used the MCS as dental floss...tisk tisk  Mr. Bill you've got a cavity on yer SW side, maybe a bit of GoMx+ATL H-2-0 can fill that cavity
434. vis0

Quoting 340. sar2401:

Well, that was a surprise. Nothing on the radar an hour ago and now it's like Mr. Bill moved this way. If you look on radar now you can see the storm just through Eufaula with a tail over to storms in Georgia. It started at 1622 with a small dot on radar. By 1644, it was right over town, and had grown to 44,800 feet with a max reflectivity of 63 dbz. I lost power for about five minutes. I'm very surprised it wasn't longer. There's a tree down into Kendall Manor (pictured below), one of our oldest homes. That's about 1/4 mile west of me. I don't know how much damage has been done to the structure but it took down five power lines and snapped the pole at the base. There are many trees down on top of houses and at least one structure fire caused by lightning. The main fire department station doors are blocked by power lines and the wind apparently blew the radio tower on the roof down, forcing the fire department over on the police frequency. There's a report of a semi flipped over by the wind on Highway 431 north of town. This is one storm that intensified right over town instead of out in the county. The wind pruned yet another large limb from my battered Bradford pear. Other than that, just branches and leaf litter in the neighborhood that I can see. Total rain was 1.75", most of which fell in 15 minutes. The high rain rate was actually 27.15" per hour for a couple minutes. Amazing.

The storm is north of town and rapidly weakening. This is the third cell that has blown up and then died, but the first one to hit town. BMX was right on the ball as usual, issuing a special weather statement at 1659, 15 minutes after the storm started. Dunno what it would have taken for a STW. More storms are now on the Georgia side that do have STW's including right across the river from me. Nothing happened here though. :-)

Edit: Forgot the picture. It's a beautiful old home. Just got back from going up the road for a look. It's missing a pillar and a corner of the roof on the right hand porch now. It was a gigantic old oak that fell, and it could have been a lot worse.




its as if Bill did a spit-take, MCS slaps him on his back (NW of BILL) spit-take towards SE (apology to SE, even though a spit-take from the heavens is a blessing)
Rain needed.
Quoting 425. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but this is just nuts. Bill is no longer tropical. He's at least merging with a frontal zone. The rain bands are much weaker than they were 12 hours ago. They've become "slightly less well formed this evening"? The winds are only 20 mph. There are no scattered bands of thunderstorms extending to the Gulf coast from Bill any longer. Almost all the flood warnings are either runoff after the rain has ended or for mainstem rivers. It's almost like they are copying and pasting from the previous forecast. Now they moved the post tropical out from 12 hours at 4:00 to 48 hours again? Based on what? And why are they even including 72 hours if it's post tropical at 48 hours?

I'm not so sure giving this job to the WPC was such a good idea.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022015
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...E OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...30 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM
WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT TRACKS
WELL INLAND INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...RAINBANDS REMAIN ACTIVE AROUND THE CENTER OF BILL
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL-FORMED THIS EVENING.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF BILL HAS RISEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND WIND
GUSTS HAVE MODERATED TO 30 MPH OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 19/0300Z 35.9N 93.8W
12HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 91.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HR VT 20/0000Z 37.3N 88.8W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR VT 20/1200Z 38.1N 86.4W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.0N 82.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0000Z 39.5N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL

Eh? It still looks like a tropical depression to me, albeit it's less organized than the past two days. Its circulation is not attached to any fronts, it's still marginally warm core based on phase diagrams, and convection continues to persist near the center. Until one of those three factors change, Bill should be maintained as a tropical cyclone.
Excellent comment FLwolverine.

Quoting 21. FLwolverine:

This applies to Catholics in the U.S. for sure, but probably less so to other countries that are not such "melting pots". On the other hand, it seems that the Church ought to provide for its members a common background of moral and spiritual values, which is what the Pope is addressing. It will be interesting to see if these (supposedly) mutual moral and spiritual values can trump the differing political ideologies, and also to see how many non-Catholics will find common ground with the Church's moral and spiritual values in this area, even if they do not agree with the Church's teachings on other issues.
Fox news at it's best!

Fox News Pundit Calls Pope Francis 'The Most Dangerous Person On The Planet' For Suggesting Climate Change Is Real

Pope Francis's newly released papal letter on outlining the moral imperative of protecting the environment has upset some Catholics and conservatives who say the pontiff should stay out of the "political realm." But one conservative pundit went a step further by calling the pope "the most dangerous person on the planet."

Pope Francis earned such a title in Fox New pundit Greg Gutfeld's eyes for "seeking strange new respect" from his "adversaries" -- among whom, Gutfeld presumes, are liberals who might disagree with the pontiff's more conservative perspectives on gay marriage, women's ordination and contraception.


Link
Quoting 400. cwjessop:

The carbon banks are in place and the ultra rich are looking forward to enriching themselves even more through this false teaching.


Hey Anthony! One of your crazies escaped the WUWT nut house and somehow found his way here. Be a peach and take him back before he starts collecting jars of his own urine or something.

kthxbye
Quoting 438. swflurker:

Fox news at it's best!
Fox News Pundit Calls Pope Francis 'The Most Dangerous Person On The Planet' For Suggesting Climate Change Is Real

Pope Francis's newly released papal letter on outlining the moral imperative of protecting the environment has upset some Catholics and conservatives who say the pontiff should stay out of the "political realm." But one conservative pundit went a step further by calling the pope "the most dangerous person on the planet."

Pope Francis earned such a title in Fox New pundit Greg Gutfeld's eyes for "seeking strange new respect" from his "adversaries" -- among whom, Gutfeld presumes, are liberals who might disagree with the pontiff's more conservative perspectives on gay marriage, women's ordination and contraception.

Link

Link


The strength of science denial is such that even God cannot convince them otherwise.

Eh...let them stew in their willful ignorance. They seem to like to wear their stupidity as a badge or something. Fine with me, just get out of the way so that those who actually care about the future can do something about it.
441. vis0

Quoting 407. CosmicEvents:


It's a $20 bill....and it's probably going to be Harriet Tubman replacing(quickly checks pocket to see if I have any $20's)..... Andrew Jackson.
why not both of them on the 20 (alternate yrs...difficult for counterfeiters) , and a flat-hologram of Astronaut teeing off on the moon on the back...**FOOOFFF **oh man i was having a dream, must've been i ate too many ...

CREDIT:: LITTLE DEBBIES web site, can NOT find a URL to the blue weather cupcakes just an image.
back to Theologyunderground...i mean Weatherunderground
442. vis0

Quoting 384. pablosyn:

After another significant heavy rain event, another polar air mass arrives in South Brazil. Now (10:30 pm), here in Porto Alegre we already have 7ºC, forecast to have 2ºC or 3ºC tomorrow morning.
In Bom Jardim da Serra, state of Santa Catarina, now they have 1ºC with winds around 35 mph, resulting in wind chill of -17ºC/1,4ºF. Earlier today the winds reached 65 mph:
The wind chill in Florianópolis (capital of Santa Catarina state) is 4ºC.

Look this graphic from Environmental Resource Center Information and Hydrometeorology of Santa Catarina's twitter
(Epagri/Ciram):


Link





Less than 3 days for the Winter.

~The Winter is Coming~
Great info

Kind of reminds me of the reverse of El Nino, in that we have a Spanish word(s) to describe a weather phenomena when conversing in English.
Maybe as you speak Portuguese or a form of that language they'll name this chart (top) The Old Man for English tales of Old Man winter...a  Rastrador / Persegador de Tormentas Scott  in S. Americas???
Quoting 413. Grothar:



Moderate to strong NW winds over the past few days along the California coast have brought back the upwelling of cooler water for the time being, at least along the immediate coastline. Bodega buoy for example is showing 49.8 F at 10:50 this evening. Half Moon Bay which peaked just above 60 a week ago shows 55 F. Monterey: 55.4 F. SSTs to the west are still rising, so expect the coastal temps to spike upward again when and if the NW gales die down again.
Quoting 440. Xyrus2000:



The strength of science denial is such that even God cannot convince them otherwise.

Eh...let them stew in their willful ignorance. They seem to like to wear their stupidity as a badge or something. Fine with me, just get out of the way so that those who actually care about the future can do something about it.
The greatest irony though is that post apocalypse, the ones still around will say that God caused the catastrophe, not man, and that he did it to punish all the liberals, atheists and gays.
I believe it is incumbent upon all of us to be good stewards of the earth we live on. It matters not whether we are the primary cause or just one of the many influences that affect the environment. This should be the common ground we could agree on.
I believe the Pope is correct in his assessment and should drive the the conversation in a responsible direction.
Funny that the Pope is being chastised for being "political" when his stance and words actually transcend politics. He is a true leader, not a politician. We don't have many of those on the planet.

We all have a responsibility to Mother Earth and each other and I can get behind that.

Quoting 445. Fieldsmith:

I believe it is incumbent upon all of us to be good stewards of the earth we live on. It matters not whether we are the primary cause or just one of the many influences that affect the environment. This should be the common ground we could agree on.
I believe the Pope is correct in his assessment and should drive the the conversation in a responsible direction.
troughiness.n.w.carib.
448. beell
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP022015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL INLAND INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
Link
=============================================

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015


Valid 12Z Fri Jun 19 2015 - 12Z Sun Jun 21 2015

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the Northern
Plains...

...The remains of T. D. Bill will produce heavy rain over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley to parts of the
Central Appalachians...
Link
450. beell
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015


...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
OVER NRN AR...
Link
Quoting 422. Grothar:




That is the first time I've seen Texas in 'all clear' status as far as drought is concerned. I see northeast and southeast Florida in the zone though. That's not a good scenario.
452. beell
Quoting 436. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Eh? It still looks like a tropical depression to me, albeit it's less organized than the past two days. Its circulation is not attached to any fronts, it's still marginally warm core based on phase diagrams, and convection continues to persist near the center. Until one of those three factors change, Bill should be maintained as a tropical cyclone.




It that a warm sector southeast of TD Bill?

453. beell
454. beell
455. beell



MUCAPE & lifted parcel level (color fill)/in meters above ground level.

Probably elevated convection (not surface based) north of the frontal boundary (also north and west of "Bill")
The 1st time ever the left agrees with the Pope on something. They don't agree with his positions on social issues tho. You know, birth control, abortion and homosexuality to be the main ones. As long as he's anti-capitalism and pro AGW, he's golden. Dissenting opinions are not very welcome here. I suspect this post, like so many from yesterday, will be minused into oblivion.
pattern.change???doubt.it...melb.nws...say....MON-F RI...IT APPEARS THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE SE STATES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK RETURNING MID
LAYER FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FL INTO THE GULF. L
Quoting 456. PensacolaDoug:

The 1st time ever the left agrees with the Pope on something. They don't agree with his positions on social issues tho. You know, birth control, abortion and homosexuality to be the main ones. As long as he's anti-capitalism and pro AGW, he's golden. Dissenting opinions are not very welcome here. I suspect this post, like so many from yesterday, will be minused into oblivion.
Pssst, Doug, you left out divorce, married clergy, and women priests - topics on which many Americans (including many Catholics) disagree with the Church and the Pope. So I guess everyone's a hypocrite but you. That is your point, isn't it?
There is no problem with respectful disagreement on issues and I am Catholic but don't agree with all of the positions of the Church; for example, I believe in the death penalty. However, the question I have is why is the suggestion routinely thrown out there that concern over climate change-global warming is a "leftist" agenda. It is a science based debate. Being a liberal, communist, socialist, etc (or whatever term that you choose as opposed to another label like conservative or rightest) has nothing to do with the science. Please don't respond that all people who believe in GW are leftists and that those that do not believe in GW are conservatives.
Quoting 456. PensacolaDoug:

Dissenting opinions are not very welcome here. I suspect this post, like so many from yesterday, will be minused into oblivion.

From what I've seen the discussion here has been a good one, from both sides and not a single comment minused into oblivion.

From Page 23... Some thoughts on water.

29.  One particularly serious problem is the
quality of water available to the poor. Every
day, unsafe water results in many deaths and the
spread of water-related diseases, including those
caused by microorganisms and chemical substances. Dysentery and cholera, linked to inadequate hygiene and water supplies, are a significant cause of suffering and of infant mortality.
Underground water sources in many places are
threatened by the pollution produced in certain
mining, farming and industrial activities, especially in countries lacking adequate regulation or
controls. It is not only a question of industrial
waste. Detergents and chemical products, commonly used in many places of the world, continue to pour into our rivers, lakes and seas.
30.  Even as the quality of available water is
constantly diminishing, in some places there is a
growing tendency, despite its scarcity, to privatize
this resource, turning it into a commodity subject
to the laws of the market. Yet access to safe drinkable water is a basic and universal human right, since it
is essential to human survival and, as such, is a condition
for the exercise of other human rights.
Quoting 444. Forsaken:

The greatest irony though is that post apocalypse, the ones still around will say that God caused the catastrophe, not man, and that he did it to punish all the liberals, atheists and gays.
on Fox News one of their pundits is now saying the Pope is the most dangerous man in the world. They keep squawking about a war on christians now they say the Pope is the most dangerous man. One week its gays, then minorities, then immigrants now the Pope. I guess I just do not understand how trying to take care of the Earth is considered dangerous. Then again as a gay person I dont understand when republicans label me as worse than the terrorist threat to America either just because we want to be treated the same as everyone else when it comes to civil laws. ( see sally kern OK republican and many more like her ).
This F###in! Ridge looks like it's here to stay and not going anywhere soon! Geez! something's got to give sooner or later.
Quoting 457. islander101010:

pattern.change???doubt.it...melb.nws...say....MON- F RI...IT APPEARS THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE SE STATES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK RETURNING MID
LAYER FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FL INTO THE GULF. L
Quoting 460. Skyepony:


From what I've seen the discussion here has been a good one, from both sides and not a single comment minused into oblivion.

From Page 23... Some thoughts on water.

29.  One particularly serious problem is the
quality of water available to the poor. Every
day, unsafe water results in many deaths and the
spread of water-related diseases, including those
caused by microorganisms and chemical substances. Dysentery and cholera, linked to inadequate hygiene and water supplies, are a significant cause of suffering and of infant mortality.
Underground water sources in many places are
threatened by the pollution produced in certain
mining, farming and industrial activities, especially in countries lacking adequate regulation or
controls. It is not only a question of industrial
waste. Detergents and chemical products, commonly used in many places of the world, continue to pour into our rivers, lakes and seas.
30.  Even as the quality of available water is
constantly diminishing, in some places there is a
growing tendency, despite its scarcity, to privatize
this resource, turning it into a commodity subject
to the laws of the market. Yet access to safe drinkable water is a basic and universal human right, since it
is essential to human survival and, as such, is a condition
for the exercise of other human rights.


I wasn't following the conversation yesterday as I work long hours. I did notice a lot of missing posts within the 1st batch of 50 however.
Quoting 458. FLwolverine:

Pssst, Doug, you left out divorce, married clergy, and women priests - topics on which many Americans (including many Catholics) disagree with the Church and the Pope. So I guess everyone's a hypocrite but you. That is your point, isn't it?
No.
As a Catholic, I'm glad the Pope decided to chime in on the climate change debate and acknowledge the science of the greenhouse effect and it's repercussions. I can assure you that my fellow Catholics, conservatives and liberals alike, are quite concerned about the health of our planet. Not just concerned over greenhouse gasses, but other environmental issues such as the plastics in the ocean, water pollution, etc. We can start by accelerating the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generating stations and replacing them with natural gas, solar, geothermal and hydro.
The more interesting issue raised by the Pope, as reported on NPR this morning, is how the Catholic Republican candidates for the Presidency are responding to the Popes pronouncements. They (Bush and a few of the others) essentially politely suggested that the Pope is a great guy (eyeing the Catholic vote) but that they will not let the Pope's/Church's position influence their political positions (eyeing the Conservative Christian vote). Typical political responses when you are looking for votes.
august.hurricane.61
Dumped 2.6" of rain in last 36 hours here in East Central IL. Got caught right on the northern edge of Bill's moisture yesterday and that front unleashed it. Counting the last day of May through June today I've received 7.7" of rain. Average in that time from is usually half that. Today was the first day water was in the yard though, but nothing overly excessive. Plants have been growing here at insane proportions over the this time period as well as we have had nearly daily record PWATs over our region of 2". It's been straight up tropical here.
Quoting 462. hurricanewatcher61:

This F###in! Ridge looks like it's here to stay and not going anywhere soon! Geez! something's got to give sooner or later.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY AND
TOWARD SUNSET...A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIALLY FORMS.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. ALSO...STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND VARIABLE TODAY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AVERAGE FLORIDA HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES. STAY WELL HYDRATED AND TAKE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN AIR
CONDITIONING IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE...AND WEAKENING OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS DURING THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER
INLAND COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES CONTINUING TO REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$
Quoting 462. hurricanewatcher61:

This F###in! Ridge looks like it's here to stay and not going anywhere soon! Geez! something's got to give sooner or later.


Hold on there Killer as there is a change coming its just outside the 7 to 8 day timeframe though. By the way here across the interior yesterday we saw some very impressive thunderstorms. Saw many vivid lightning strikes. Very photogenic ones I might add.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago Medford, NY
Big cold shot coming across the eastern two thirds a la ECMWF EPS due to the development of a strong UL western ridge


Notice the Big Wet Signal setting up across the SE US. Hang in there coastal FL.

GFS
This shot was from Lake Monroe in Sanford and you can tell where the cut off the dry vrs wet was yesterday in E C FL.

I remain totally unimpressed with the arguments that Bill is not already ex-Bill. It is the most marginally warm cored low I've ever seen, if it's is still warm cored at all. I don't see any evidence there's deep convection associated with the low. It has merged with the broad frontal system already in place. The WPC can't seem to agree on a central pressure for the low, with a reading of 1006 mb to 1008 mb, depending on which chart you look at this morning. The supposed time for the low to become post tropical has gone from 12 hours at 4:00 pm yesterday to 48 hours at 10:00 pm yesterday to 36 hours at 4:00 am today. Things have not changed that markedly with this low. The 4:00 am update states the front is stationary. The WPC front page maps shows a cold front advancing south. The lowest pressure I can find in AK is in Flippin, in NW AK and apparently close to the center of the low, is 29.74 in, or 1007. 1 mb. Flippin is reporting overcast and has no flood warnings of any kind out. Obviously, I'm not in charge at the WPC, but I've seen way better looking lows than this one declared post-tropical.
Thanks! Hope it plays out. I saw that yesterday here from the coast. You could see all the storms/high cloud tops.
Quoting 470. StormTrackerScott:



Hold on there Killer as there is a change coming its just outside the 7 to 8 day timeframe though. By the way here across the interior yesterday we saw some very impressive thunderstorms. Saw many vivid lightning strikes. Very photogenic ones I might add.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 13h13 hours ago Medford, NY
Big cold shot coming across the eastern two thirds a la ECMWF EPS due to the development of a strong UL western ridge


Notice the Big Wet Signal setting up across the SE US. Hang in there coastal FL.

GFS

475. MahFL
Quoting 474. Sandy82579:

I didn't realize that 30 years ago they taught meteorology and climate at seminary. Oh wait, they didn't.

The Pope should stick to theological issues and leave the science to the professionally trained. In my opinion he's just another layman who has drank the koolaid of "climate change".


What gives you the right to dictate what another person can think and speak about ?
Quoting 473. hurricanewatcher61:

Thanks! Hope it plays out. I saw that yesterday here from the coast. You could see all the storms/high cloud tops.


Here's Day 9 on the GFS. Much lower heights compared to what we have now and more importantly cooler mid level temps which increase instability.
Quoting 474. Sandy82579:

I didn't realize that 30 years ago they taught meteorology and climate at seminary. Oh wait, they didn't.

The Pope should stick to theological issues and leave the science to the professionally trained. In my opinion he's just another layman who has drank the koolaid of "climate change".


And you are entitled to your opinion, as everyone is on both sides of the argument. This is what sets us aparts from the lions and animals, we are civilized people (hopefully) that can debate differences by communication.
478. MahFL
The eye is even clearing out a bit :

Quoting 469. LargoFl:


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY AND
TOWARD SUNSET...A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIALLY FORMS.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. ALSO...STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND VARIABLE TODAY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AVERAGE FLORIDA HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES. STAY WELL HYDRATED AND TAKE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN AIR
CONDITIONING IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE...AND WEAKENING OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS DURING THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER
INLAND COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES CONTINUING TO REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$



Some storms could turn very strong again today Largo. Lots of lightning around me yesterday although no rain fell at my location as i was in some weird hole with rain falling a couple of miles from me.
We are in the middle of a tropical wave which would normally produce storms and rain the dust is so thick it looks like an overcast layer I don't recall seeing it this thick......
When flying in here you have to shoot an approach until about 5 miles out as its so thick unless you know the island.
I have heard that people in the eastern Carib struggle with respiratory issues from this stuff
I miss bright blue skies and fluffy Simpsons clouds!
Quoting 459. weathermanwannabe:

There is no problem with respectful disagreement on issues and I am Catholic but don't agree with all of the positions of the Church; for example, I believe in the death penalty. However, the question I have is why is the suggestion routinely thrown out there that concern over climate change-global warming is a "leftist" agenda. It is a science based debate. Being a liberal, communist, socialist, etc (or whatever term that you choose as opposed to another label like conservative or rightest) has nothing to do with the science. Please don't respond that all people who believe in GW are leftists and that those that do not believe in GW are conservatives.

Much of the blowback to the science of AGW comes from those who worship at the altar of unfettered capitalism, and also, I suspect, from individuals who believe that certain groups should be "kept in their place". To these people, government is the Great Satan. They realize that AGW, if true, can only be addressed by massive government intervention, therefore, AGW must be denied at all costs.
Quoting 459. weathermanwannabe:

There is no problem with respectful disagreement on issues and I am Catholic but don't agree with all of the positions of the Church; for example, I believe in the death penalty. However, the question I have is why is the suggestion routinely thrown out there that concern over climate change-global warming is a "leftist" agenda. It is a science based debate. Being a liberal, communist, socialist, etc (or whatever term that you choose as opposed to another label like conservative or rightest) has nothing to do with the science. Please don't respond that all people who believe in GW are leftists and that those that do not believe in GW are conservatives.
The Catholic church has no official position opposing the death penalty. Nevertheless, I understand what you're saying. I don't have to agree with the Pope's position on social and theological issues to examine what's in the encyclical and see if I agree with that. If I think AGW is a crock, of course I won't agree with it. It really wouldn't matter what religious group issued a similar position type paper. Those with hardened positions won't be swayed by this paper either. I haven't plowed my way trough all 180 pages yet (and the entire encyclical is not devoted to climate change issues) but I've yet to find one statement not supported by our current scientific understanding of climate change. Unfortunately, those that doubt the science are not likely to become converts just because the Pope does agree with the science.
Quoting 474. Sandy82579:

I didn't realize that 30 years ago they taught meteorology and climate science at seminary. Oh wait, they didn't.

The Pope should stick to theological issues and leave the science to the professionally trained. In my opinion he's just another layman who has drank the koolaid of "climate change".


There are many Catholic Priests who are actually science professors (with science degrees that they obtained at regular universities outside of seminary) at some of the well known Catholic Universities like Georgetown or Holy Cross College and who teach courses in things like science, weather, anthropology, and astronomy or who work at the Vatican Telescope facility....................................Try Again.
Quoting 456. PensacolaDoug:

The 1st time ever the left agrees with the Pope on something. They don't agree with his positions on social issues tho. You know, birth control, abortion and homosexuality to be the main ones. As long as he's anti-capitalism and pro AGW, he's golden. Dissenting opinions are not very welcome here. I suspect this post, like so many from yesterday, will be minused into oblivion.

Many of your posts mention the 'left' when it comes to the issue of agw/cc. There are people all across the political spectrum who are concerned about it, right, center, and 'left'.

I'd actually like to know who you consider the 'left' to be. And why don't you consider the moderates or the conservatives, when it comes to concern about agw/cc?

One last thought - if one doesn't agree with another generally on issues, does that mean they should never agree with them? That seems to be what you're saying. I don't agree with that idea. If Cruz, Rubio, Walker, etc., stated an opinion or a stance that 'broke with the pack', should they automatically be dismissed due to their other opinions/stances? Years ago Newt Gingrich broke from his fellow Republicans when it came to the Endangered Species Act. I remember how surprised I was at the time that he went with his conscience. To this day I respect him for doing so.
Quoting 475. MahFL:



What gives you the right to dictate what another person can think and speak about ?
He clearly states it's his opinion. Where do you see him dictating to other people? I don't agree with him but it seems like you are assuming facts not in evidence.
Quoting 483. weathermanwannabe:



There are many Catholic Priests who are actually science professors (with science degrees that they obtained at regular universities outside of seminary) at some of the well known Catholic Universities like Georgetown or Holy Cross College and who teach courses in things like science, weather, anthropology, and astronomy or who work at the Vatican Telescope facility....................................Try Again.


Well said. I really wonder about some on here.
Quoting 474. Sandy82579:

I didn't realize that 30 years ago they taught meteorology and climate science at seminary. Oh wait, they didn't.

The Pope should stick to theological issues and leave the science to the professionally trained. In my opinion he's just another layman who has drank the koolaid of "climate change".


Everyone's entitles to their own opinion (even you). Though I think you should try and see the whole message Pope Francis was trying to portray. He wasn't asking for funding for climate change research, he was merely saying that greed and corruption has gotten us to the state we are in. And that our (being "first world" citizens) actions of polluting the environment and climate with no respect for future generations will unfortunately have the greatest impact on those nations who are unable to financially combat future challenges.

I'm in no sense trying to call you out. But I've had enough of everyone who is against the idea of climate change continue to stick their heads in the ground. I've had enough of big oil, and enough of greed. It is time to change the way we view ourselves, and I will be the first to admit I am part of the problem. My consumerism lifestyle is unsustainable. I hope we can all begin to work together, instead of fighting one another over fake bi-partisan lines, and begin to implement changes which will positively affect Earth's environment. I prefer the viewpoint of, leave something better than the way you found it........

Anyways, is it too much to ask for some rain here in Lake Worth? Us folks close to the coast need it!
Quoting 474. Sandy82579:

Okay, you don't want to hear about it from the Pope. Based on your use of the term 'koolaid', I'm guessing you don't want to hear it from the government, or from the scientists who did all the heavy lifting on this, or perhaps you just don't want to hear about it from anybody.
Quoting 479. StormTrackerScott:


Some storms could turn very strong again today Largo. Lots of lightning around me yesterday although no rain fell at my location as i was in some weird hole with rain falling a couple of miles from me.


St. Lucie county had a 40 acre brush fire from lightning- but no rain as the storm that created the lightning strike was far away.

I believe there will be a repeat today.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 456. PensacolaDoug:

The 1st time ever the left agrees with the Pope on something. They don't agree with his positions on social issues tho. You know, birth control, abortion and homosexuality to be the main ones. As long as he's anti-capitalism and pro AGW, he's golden. Dissenting opinions are not very welcome here. I suspect this post, like so many from yesterday, will be minused into oblivion.


I rarely agree with the pope, mainly because I am an atheist and don't rely on religion to guide my moral compass as it is possible to be good and not have God. But, the certainly doesn't mean I can't recognize progress and good ideas when I see them. Trying to chastise anyone for that is childish. They are the words of those with no rational arguments left. Besides, the more important social observation out of this are the pseudo religious denying the pope in favor of political ideology. It certainly shows some worship of false idols at best, and complete blasphemy at worst.
Quoting 488. LAbonbon:


Okay, you don't want to hear about it from the Pope. Based on your use of the term 'koolaid', I'm guessing you don't want to hear it from the government, or from the scientists who did all the heavy lifting on this, or perhaps you just don't want to hear about it from anybody.


These people want to be their own experts. They don't need anyone to tell them what to do. This is how cognitive biases work.
Quoting 483. weathermanwannabe:



There are many Catholic Priests who are actually science professors (with science degrees that they obtained at regular universities outside of seminary) at some of the well known Catholic Universities like Georgetown or Holy Cross College and who teach courses in things like science, weather, anthropology, and astronomy or who work at the Vatican Telescope facility....................................Try Again.
And Francis does have a diploma as chemical technician obtained from an Argentine technical school. He worked in a chemical lab for a couple of years before he entered the seminary, so he does a basic grounding in science. He certainly has more than any recent Pope I can think of. He also worked as a bar bouncer before entering the seminary, so I guess he's qualified to make statement about that profession also. :-)
Quoting 472. sar2401:

I remain totally unimpressed with the arguments that Bill is not already ex-Bill. It is the most marginally warm cored low I've ever seen, if it's is still warm cored at all. I don't see any evidence there's deep convection associated with the low. It has merged with the broad frontal system already in place. The WPC can't seem to agree on a central pressure for the low, with a reading of 1006 mb to 1008 mb, depending on which chart you look at this morning. The supposed time for the low to become post tropical has gone from 12 hours at 4:00 pm yesterday to 48 hours at 10:00 pm yesterday to 36 hours at 4:00 am today. Things have not changed that markedly with this low. The 4:00 am update states the front is stationary. The WPC front page maps shows a cold front advancing south. The lowest pressure I can find in AK is in Flippin, in NW AK and apparently close to the center of the low, is 29.74 in, or 1007. 1 mb. Flippin is reporting overcast and has no flood warnings of any kind out. Obviously, I'm not in charge at the WPC, but I've seen way better looking lows than this one declared post-tropical.

sar, what does the lack of flood warnings in Flippin mean?

I was up in the wee hours (my sister in MO and my brother in AR were both getting the effects of Bill at the same time), and saw multiple flash flood warnings out for MO.
Quoting 438. swflurker:

Fox news at it's best!

Fox News Pundit Calls Pope Francis 'The Most Dangerous Person On The Planet' For Suggesting Climate Change Is Real

Pope Francis's newly released papal letter on outlining the moral imperative of protecting the environment has upset some Catholics and conservatives who say the pontiff should stay out of the "political realm." But one conservative pundit went a step further by calling the pope "the most dangerous person on the planet."

Pope Francis earned such a title in Fox New pundit Greg Gutfeld's eyes for "seeking strange new respect" from his "adversaries" -- among whom, Gutfeld presumes, are liberals who might disagree with the pontiff's more conservative perspectives on gay marriage, women's ordination and contraception.


Link

Fifty or a hundred years from now no one will remember who Gutfeld is, yet Pope Francis's work will live on, and he most certainly will be remembered for his efforts here.
Quoting 315. ChrisHamburg:



Come on he quoted a book from 1882, maybe that is the last time he read a book. Why read an introduction into Atmospheric Science and try to understand Earths energy budget, when you can be smug about the science without the effort. It is the old battle between intuition and the scientific method part infinty plus 1. They feel they are right and the Scientist are wrong, end of story. There will always be people who think they know things without studying and effort and time and so on. Their intuition is supreme.

And he used Gilbert. Gilbert was (and still is) much respected for his work in the geological sciences. The idea that his work would be used like this...well, he's likely rolling over in his grave.
Quoting 463. PensacolaDoug:



I wasn't following the conversation yesterday as I work long hours. I did notice a lot of missing posts within the 1st batch of 50 however.

Pope Francis certainly brought out the flaming climate trolls. A different opinion is one thing, doing everything to stop or run people off from the conversation is another.

I'm still reading on the encyclical. This has been a different facet to the debate that hasn't been really addressed on such a global scale, right & wrong. How we pollute our world both in ways it can and can not be immediately seen is a question of right or wrong because the end affect impacts other people.

Nothing is ever gained or lost. People have just found a way to gain more by not paying the immediate consequences. Debt is building as the greenhouse gases and cheap food, fracking runoff accumulate.

The poor of course pay first in this day, which is yet another question of right or wrong.

The encyclical is certainly a good lesson on morals for living in this more globalism way and a solid question to this throw away society & economy.
Quoting 274. whitewabit:

Tok River bridge has a cam and is showing water flowing .. couldn't find any thing at all on search so really wondering if the story is true .. some articles should have popped up ..
The Tok River Bridge on the Alaska Highway east of Tok does not have a cam, neither is there a camera where the Tok River goes under on the Tok Cutoff Road south of Tok. If you see one, it's news to me. I'm not sure what you're seeing.

And the story of the Tok River gone dry last week is true. I saw it myself, as did a whole bunch of other Tokites (and travelers, who camped at the Tok River Campground). I walked the dry riverbed just a few days ago.

Yesterday (6/18/15) the river channel had some water in it ~ not a lot, but deeper than a foot of water.



A bunch of creeks and small rivers here in Alaska's interior are dry this summer, or very low; some for the first time I've seen, and some as they do occasionally, when summer rainfall has been sparse.

We accumulated a total of .99 in. of rain in May, and so far this month of June we have accumulated .15 in. Both months are within historical norms.
Quoting 305. sar2401:

I think that's actually the Little Tok River. There's a fishing guide site for the Little Tok that makes no mention of the river being dry. The Little Tok empties into the Tok ,and some of the fishing sites describe it as shallow and only navigable by canoe. One of the posts at an outdoors forum mention that the Little Tok can be virtually dry at times. Don't know if I have the right river but it sounds right. The Tok is a much larger river, and I don't really see how it could go dry.
No that photo is not the Little Tok River, it is the Tok River, location about 4 miles east of Tok on the Alaska Highway. It is much larger than the Little Tok, very swift and muddy.

The Little Tok River crosses under the Tok Cutoff Road, which goes south of Tok to Glenallen, from there the roads go to either Valdez or Anchorage.
Quoting 484. LAbonbon:


Many of your posts mention the 'left' when it comes to the issue of agw/cc. There are people all across the political spectrum who are concerned about it, right, center, and 'left'.

I'd actually like to know who you consider the 'left' to be. And why don't you consider the moderates or the conservatives, when it comes to concern about agw/cc?

One last thought - if one doesn't agree with another generally on issues, does that mean they should never agree with them? That seems to be what you're saying. I don't agree with that idea. If Cruz, Rubio, Walker, etc., stated an opinion or a stance that 'broke with the pack', should they automatically be dismissed due to their other opinions/stances? Years ago Newt Gingrich broke from his fellow Republicans when it came to the Endangered Species Act. I remember how surprised I was at the time that he went with his conscience. To this day I respect him for doing so.


Pay no attention to the Fictional Conservatives who believe the Fictional Propaganda spread by their Fictional Conservative (mis)Leaders ..... Their so-called Ideals are purely fictional and often based on a fictional novel in the case of the Randian nit wits ...... Here's what Conservatives used to believe from one of the most Conservative Senators to ever live ....

"I feel very definitely that the administration is absolutely correct in cracking down on companies and corporations and municipalities that continue to pollute the nation's air and water. While I am a great believer in the free competitive enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right of our people to live in a clean and pollution-free environment.

To this end, it is my belief that when pollution is found, it should be halted at the source, even if this requires stringent government action against important segments of our national economy"

- Barry Goldwater, 1969

Of course Barry also believed in Gay Rights, Gays in the Military, Abortion Rights and wasn't too happy with the Religious Right who started the Cult of Fictional Conservatism back in the late 70's ......

The Pope is just wrong. By discouraging fossil fuels, he is condemning a billion energy starved people to no electric light, cooking over dung fires and carrying dirty water from the river. They will continue to live short and miserable lives with no hope of improvement if any carbon tax is imposed. He doesn't sound like a man of compassion to me.