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The pole star and Arctic climate change

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:01 PM GMT on February 15, 2007

Hello Weather Underground bloggers, Aaron here. Dr. Masters is on vacation so I'll be posting a series of vacation blogs for him. This is the first.

In my previous blog, I mentioned how the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), a 2004 study of Arctic climate compiled by 300 scientists over three years, found that the recent increase in Arctic temperatures was probably due to human-emitted greenhouse gases. Greenhouse skeptics attacked the ACIA report and its conclusion, pointing out that the Arctic was much warmer than today during the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago. For example, Dr. Patrick Michaels said in a 2004 interview with CNS news, a conservative Internet news service:"It was warmer 4 to 7,000 years ago [in the Arctic.] Every climatologist knows that. I saw no mention of that in the Arctic report," Michaels said. He added that the past warming of the Arctic couldn't possibly be blamed on greenhouse gas emissions since it occurred long before the industrial era.It is true that Arctic summers were warmer during the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago. The mean July temperature along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5 to 7.0 �C warmer than present, and Scandinavian summer temperatures were 1.5 to 2 �C higher than at present. The warming was caused by changes in the amount of sunlight the north pole gets in summer due to variations in the Earth's orbit.
Figure 1. Summertime temperatures in the Arctic during the Mid-Holocene Warm Period (about 6,000 years ago), compared to today's temperatures. Image credit: NOAA.

Earth's orbital variations
Earth's orbit is not perfectly circular, which means that we are closest to the sun in December and farthest in July. Thus, the Southern Hemisphere gets more sunlight in their summer (December) than the Northern Hemisphere does in their summer (July). The Earth's current 23.5 degree tilt keeps the north pole pointed towards the star Polaris, which results in the north pole being pointed at the sun in December (Northern Hemisphere winter). The Earth slowly wobbles around its axis with a period of 23,000 years a href=(precession) so that the pole star gradually changes with time. During the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago, the pole star was Thuban in the constellation Draco, and the north pole was pointed at the sun during Northern Hemisphere summer. This resulted in much warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic, since there was more summer sunlight. Conversely, winter temperatures were colder, since the Earth was farther from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The Arctic will again be much warmer in summer 16,000 to 19,000 years from now when the cycle repeats and Thuban is once more the pole star. The reason the ACIA failed to mention this climate period is that the average temperature in the Arctic remained about the same during the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago; it was just the summers that warmed. The warming since 1980 and the 1930s were warmings over all seasons, so it was misleading for the climate skeptics to compare Arctic temperatures 4,000 - 7,000 years ago with these modern warmings.

This is the second in a series of five blogs on climate change in the Arctic that will appear every Monday and Thursday. Next blog: Why the Arctic sea ice is shrinking.


Also, be sure to visit our new Climate Change blog, written by Dr. Ricky Rood of the University of Michigan.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

lol why did dr m did not say any thing about going on vacation where did he go on vacation and when will he be back from vacation ????
Great Blog Aaron. That's what i was thinking Taz
it odd to find that dr m did not yet us no when he was going on vacation and did not say any thing in his blog about it aron did he say any thing to you when dr m my be comeing back from vacation and why he did not say any thing?
Taz - honey - let him have his vacation. He probably went through all the proper channels to go and just figured Aaron would cover it here.
Thunderstorm2 yes would of been nic if dr m made a noted on the blog saying i will be going on vacation and when he would be back and where he was going on vacation
Maybe he didn't want anyone to know but it is weird
Well he's away now. There is nothing we can do about it. Hi Saddle
: Thunderstorm2 yes it is weird


may be aron no a little some in about this cant walk off with out saying any thing about it do i evere walk off with out saying any thing do i all way went you no where i am going and when i will be back well do i?
When Dr.M leave to go on vacation? Maybe that's why his blog isn't changed but every 2-4 days at a time. But it's probaly hard to find different subjects to talk about. I really wish we could talk more about Hurricane season. I know I know it's to early. The storms just facinates me and I like learning about the SST's and the other stuff. But let me make one thing clear I don't wish anyone harm they can all stay out to sea I just like to watch them and how they mature.
The 3rd rock out being us..is almost finished completing a precession cycle and were justa spinning along.Every day now brings a lil more Sun angle higher and a lil longer too.The GOM and Atlantic basin begins to warm ever so gradually as we turn into the coming Spring ..now. Just over 100 days till H season.
: catastropheadjuster yes i want to no when too



yes have a right too no
Precession of the EquinoxesLink
Another dive into it with the computational Math for those into that ...Link
Sheri Whether there are Neutral or la nina conditions present they both favor good atmospheric conditions that will allow tropical developement across the basin.

To futher understand here are a few links that have been useful to me.

1-La nina and el nino resources
2-Madden-Julian Oscillation
3-CPC-MJO page
4-MJO-Research
Bismark, North Dakota had a low of -34 F (not the windchill) the coldest morning in 11 years.
nice blog Dr. Masters,thanks.
: weatherboykris dr m is not her aron did it for him today
where did dr. masters go this time?
oh.Thanks Taz.
Goodwatt,do you know when the annual hurricane conference is?He could be there.
like hey that what i been wanting to no dr m this walk off what out saying any thing i wish aron would come in her and tell he what we need to no on where dr m went and when he will be back and why dr m did not say any thing
I'm sure he's fine,Taz.Something probably came up suddenly.
Taz are you still worrying?
but with out saying any thing too us 1st?
Thunderstorm2 no i am not worrying i this want to no where dr m is and why did he not say any thing in his last blog about vacation
Taz calm down,breath deeply
The NHC conference is in New Orleans at the Hilton April 2-6..Link
Taz- he's not accountable to the bloggers. He's accountable to his boss and he went to the trouble to make sure Aaron covered his blog while he was gone. Instead of demanding his accountability, appreciate what he has done in the meantime so that we, the bloggers are not neglected. Vacation is personal time earned and it's not our right to challenge where he is or what he is doing - really it isn't.
DR. M is coming to Mardi Gras..relax Taz..it ends Next Tuesday..
Saddle that was deep
The north pole is not "pointed at the sun in December". The north pole is in perpetual darkness in December!
..LOL..actually Im sure hes somewhere relaxing hopefully.H season coming in lil over 3 mths.
so where did he go on Vacation ?????
TAZ - IF HE WANTED US TO KNOW, HE WOULD HAVE TOLD US....!
Somewhere
but do i all way tell evere one where i am going be for i go Vacation or short Vacation ???
It really has nothing to do with us
oky then i this ask aron then
You do that Taz and everyone quit trying to pick an argument with Patrap - you are really not equipped.
you are really not equipped



What you meaning by that?
Taz,I think you're worrying a little too much.It's not that big a deal.And as Patrap said,this is the time of year to relax,hurricane season is just about 100 days away.
Yeah,really SG,what do you mean by that?No one's trying to pick an arguement anyway.
Yeah you have got 100 days to build up your energy before all the excitment of HS starts
The north pole is not "pointed at the sun in December". The north pole is in perpetual darkness in December

that sounded like picking an argument to me - sorry to have bothered you guys. Carry on.
I wasn't referring to you T2 or you kris - you guys don't pick fights - I know that.
Ok Saddle
Well that allweatherfriends thing is sorted saddle except there is one more problem
100 days a way can we make it sooner
don't think so
Actually Taz,it's 105 days away.
i'll be back later
ok.see you later.
"CYCLONIC VIGILANCE" in effect for islands near Reunion. Which means that a cyclone threat is possible in 24 to 48 hours.

Tempte Tropicale Modre Favio
35 knots (10 min), 995 hPa
I just read on a link that someone put up and it said something like June- 5 months Neutral then it said September- 8 months Neutral so does that mean that where probaly gonna have Neutral conditions thoughtout hurricane season? Or how does that work? If it's gonna be a neutral season we shouldn't have much to worry about do we? I know it only takes one to make a bad season, but I'm just wondering if it's a Neutral season and that's what there thinking then it might not be as bad like some of them where talking about right. Or if someone can explain it to me in easy terms to where i can understand what it means. I would appreciate it and thank you.
Hi Catastrophe
Good Afternoon all,Been a tough day for me,time to relax.
yes you do that ryan
Hey TS2.
Hi T2, How's it going? I'm just trying to figure some things a bout Neutral Conditions. If we have Neutral conditions it shouldn't be much of a bad season should it?
Dr. Masters is on vacation so Aaron Wrote this blog.
I'm Good thanks,you?

If Neutral Conditions are in effect then it really it won't be a very active season.
Afternoon everyone. Nice day everywhere ??
G'Afternoon Pottery. Yeah it's alright although i'm under a Freeze Watch
Brrr... chilly here in Florida - 56 on the Gulf Coast... More 'cold' to come. What's a thin-blooded Floridian to do? :D
Hey Pottery.
thats better than being under a rock, storm2, enjoy it...........
64 here
LOL Pottery.
I would rather be under a rock like an ant
its -10 here
Ryang, how are you ? There were killer whales off B"dos the other day, and a Great white caught by a fishing boat as well. Not good for swimming............
OH Pottery,thanks for telling me.
Unless you are making a remake of Jonah and the whale
A very bad day for Earth..
Isn't it


The section "Earth's orbital variations" is not very
accurate. I suppose it meant to say that due to precession
the length of summer was longer 4,000 - 7,000 years ago
(Earth closest to the sun varies wrt. the seasons). Or was
the inclination much different 4,000 - 7,000 years ago?.

BTW: How can a difference of few days in the length of the
summer make a difference of 1.5 C to 7.0 C?



"the north pole being pointed at the sun in December"

It is pointed ***away*** from the sun in December.


"north pole was pointed at the sun during Northern
Hemisphere summer"

This is always be the case, by definition. Otherwise it
would not be summer.


"closest to the sun in December and farthest in July."

The Earth is (currently) closest to the Sun on 3rd January and farthest
on 7th July.


It does not matter where the north pole is pointed (the Sun
at e.g. summer solstice will just appear to be in different
constellation). The inclination of the rotation axis (to
ecliptica) can be exactly the same for the entire precession
cycle.





It has to do, I think, with whether the earth is closer to perihelion or aphelion in a given season, i.e. winter aphelion=greater seasonal variation. (2007 perihelion was 1/13, aphelion will be 7/7.)
Perhaps if the following section of the blog entry,

"The Earth's current 23.5 degree tilt keeps the north pole pointed towards the star Polaris, which results in the north pole being pointed at the sun in December (Northern Hemisphere winter). The Earth slowly wobbles around its axis with a period of 23,000 years a (precession) so that the pole star gradually changes with time. During the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago, the pole star was Thuban in the constellation Draco, and the north pole was pointed at the sun during Northern Hemisphere summer."

read as

The Earth's current 23.5 degree tilt keeps the north pole pointed towards the star Polaris, which results in the north pole leaning away from the sun (Northern Hemisphere winter) while the earth is closest to the sun in its orbit (aphelion). The Earth slowly wobbles around its axis with a period of 23,000 years a href=(precession) so that the pole star gradually changes with time. During the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago, the pole star was Thuban in the constellation Draco, and the north pole was leaning toward the sun (Northern Hemisphere summer) while the earth was closest to the sun in its orbit (aphelion).

it would be a more precise statement but let's not lose sight of Dr. Master's point.

4,000 - 7,000 years ago Arctic summers were warmer and Arctic winters were colder. Average temperatures have remained about the same. It was misleading (I'd call it just plain deceit) for Dr. Patrick Michaels to mention only the ancient warmer summers.
Posted By: Snowfire at 5:00 PM EST on February 15, 2007.
It has to do, I think, with whether the earth is closer to perihelion or aphelion in a given season, i.e. winter aphelion=greater seasonal variation.

Sounds right. Northern winter would start in what is now July.
BTW - I am currently on vacation. This comment was made in advance.
FRom the precession link interesting table

The figure above illustrates the effects of axial precession on the northern hemisphere seasons, relative to perihelion and aphelion. The precession of the equinoxes contributes to periodic climate change, and is known as the Milankovitch cycle.

Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the orbital eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit may be substantially longer in duration. Today, in the northern hemisphere, when fall and winter occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore, fall and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Today, the northern hemisphere summer is 4.66 days longer than its associated winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than fall. Axial precession slowly changes the place in the Earth's orbit where the solstices and equinoxes occur. See tropical year for a more extensive treatment and numerical values. Over the next 10,000 years, northern hemisphere winters will become gradually longer and northern hemisphere summers will become shorter, eventually creating conditions believed to be favorable for triggering the next ice age.
That's a good one lowerCal. I got into the Milankovitch cycles 1st & it seemed to help it all make better sence. Kind of a new area for me, I understood a number of things make the 100000year cycle but never looked at the factors close.
That is the best link I have seen anyone put up in a long time LowerCal! Thanks!
Thanks Skye and IslandGuy but I have to give due credit. It's one of the links SteveBloom posted on the Climate Change Blog three days ago.
A tour of 3 Andromeda Stars ...
Finally~ NOAA get thier January wrap up out there, including it's crazy warmth.

credit NOAA
They need bigger dots for their key.

GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY HIGHEST ON RECORD, U.S. TEMPERATURE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MONTH
(global highlights below)

Feb. 16, 2007 The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the highest for any January on record, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The most unusually warm conditions were in the mid- and high-latitude land areas of the Northern Hemisphere. In the contiguous United States, the monthly mean temperature was near average in January.

Global Temperatures
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.53 degrees F (0.85 degrees C) warmer than the 20th century average of 53.6 degrees F (12.0 degrees C) for January based on preliminary data, surpassing the previous record set in 2002 at 1.28 degrees F (0.71 degrees C) above the average. Last month's record was greatly influenced by a record high land-surface temperature, which was 3.40 degrees F (1.89 degrees C) warmer than average. Separately, the global ocean-surface temperature was fourth warmest in the 128-year series, approximately 0.1 degrees F (0.05 degrees C) cooler than the record established during the very strong El Nio episode in 1998.

A moderate El Nio episode that began in September 2006 continued into January but weakened during the month. The presence of El Nio, along with the continuing global warming trend, contributed to the record warm January. Monthly mean temperatures more than 8 degrees F above average covered large parts of Eastern Europe and much of Russia, and temperatures more than 5 degrees F above average were widespread in Canada. The unusually warm conditions contributed to the 2nd lowest January snow cover extent on record for the Eurasian continent.

During the past century, global surface temperatures have increased at a rate near 0.11 degrees F (0.06 degrees C) per decade, but the rate of increase has been three times larger since 1976, or 0.32 degrees F (0.18 degrees C) per decade, with some of the largest temperature increases occurring in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Is there anyone on today it seems awful dead today. Does anyone think Neutral conditions are gonna be thru the whole hurricane season or will La Nina come into effect in the middle or late in the season? plus I know people are waiting to see how the steering currents are set up. At least I think that's what i read that someone wrote in the blog.
Is anyone on?
Looks like Oregon and Washington were one of the few states below average in the nation.

Lucky us!
Couple of interesting articles that came out today

Link
Link

Link


Link
Right now the way i see it the POAMA model is forcasting anything form neutral conditions to la nina atleast threw the end of september.were basically looking at a more active season number wise this time around across the atlantic basin.There are alot of things yet to evolve like for example how will the all important steering currents set up?Or how will the SAL be around the basin remember that the Sal Factor was one of the main reasons that caused the 2006 season to be an average season with (10/5/2).Indeed alot of questions that we will probably not know the answer to for another couple of months.Also keep in mind a quite season can also be deadly it only takes one to ruin lives.1992 is a great example of that with andrew.Adrian

Here is graphic of the POAMA model.

CLICK ON THUMBNAIL
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us



Graphic of models in pretty agreement of atleast Neutral threw the first half of the 2007 hurricane season.

See Graphic Here
what is SAL?
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 8:19 PM GMT on February 16, 2007. (hide)
what is SAL?

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall and usually moves out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The SAL usually extends between 5,000-20,000 ft (1500-6000 m) in the atmosphere and is associated with large amounts of mineral dust, dry air (~50% less moisture than a typical tropical sounding), and strong winds (~25-55 mph or ~10-25 m/s).

The SAL has been shown to have significant negative impact on tropical cyclone intensity. Its dry air can act to weaken a tropical cyclone by inhibiting updrafts in the storm, while its strong winds can substantially increase the vertical wind shear in and around the storm environment. It is not yet clear what effect the SAL's dust has on tropical cyclone intensity, though some studies have suggested that it too may have a negative impact on intensification.




For futher questions you can always refer to Huricanes FAQ CIMSS-Saharan Air Layer Analysis

OK thanks hurricane23, I knew about the dry/dusty Saharan air masses that can inhibit storm development, I just didn't know the acronym.
No problem...
Updated NWS discussion from miami.

...COLD TONIGHT AND COOL WEEKEND ON TAP...

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRES DROPPING INTO THE GULF...COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS S OF THE S FLA AREA THIS EVENING. WITHERING BUT CONTINUING
DRY NW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO S FLA. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME NEAR CLAM
IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. RADIATION COOLING WILL ALLOW FREEZING TEMPER
-ATURES MAINLY IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...THOUGH N COLLIER IN
THE IMMOKALEE AREA AND IN W PALM BEACH WELL S AND SE OF LAKE OKEE
COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S COAST. CONTINUED
COOL SAT AND SAT NIGHT THROUGH SOME CLOUDS AND MINIMAL POPS POSSIBLE
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
Hey 23 and all.
Hey ryang...
It was 88 degrees today here. I wouldnt mind a little Artic Blast.

The temp today better not be a preview of summertime.
2 things I forgot to say...

I am located in Whitter, CA one of the warmer areas in La County.

Also the Humidity was at a miserable 1% today...
Hi Everyone
Hi all,

I notice FL and the Bahamas are both due for one of the chillier weekends this winter. I have been fascinated by the speed of the temperature changes. At 6:30 a. m, when I left home this morning,I was literally sweating in my shirtsleeves (no jacket). At 6:30 p. m., I had to exchange my light jacket for my heavy one. The next front seems to be attached to a vigourous and fast-moving low, so it looks like we will remain cool for a few days this time.
Hi Baha. The cold front is ment to last untill Monday Night (Tuesday Night if your lucky) and then it will increase in temperature at nights after that day. Thats what the NWS are saying.
THEMIS Launch Scrubbed due to upper level winds til tommarrow, window opens at 6:01pm edt. It's to explore what's behind the auroras.
bump
a hidden entry.. O_o;
Short on celestial math so cannot comment on the absolute correctness of today's blog. However, the precession of the earths axis around its 23 degree tilt seems to say that on an absolute time basis, it would be summer during winter and visa versa in 11500 years from now. That the North Pole points more to the sun in winter (compared to what, the summer?)is just counter intuitive given the total lack of sun during a part of winter in the Arctic. Can anyone diagramatically represent what was said for my benefit?

Also, " The reason the ACIA failed to mention this climate period is that the average temperature in the Arctic remained about the same during the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago; it was just the summers that warmed.", if only the summers were warmer, and implied is that the winters were the same, the average cannot be the same. Where am I going wrong here? Thank you.
Webtraffic for this website is way down this year...

lahcuts there are several statements that are unclear and unfortunately the Dr. is not available to clarify them.

I think if you just focus on the following statements in the blog entry then it's not confusing.

... This resulted in much warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic, since there was more summer sunlight. Conversely, winter temperatures were colder, since the Earth was farther from the sun during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
...the average temperature in the Arctic remained about the same during the period 4,000 - 7,000 years ago; it was just the summers that warmed. The warming since 1980 and the 1930s were warmings over all seasons, so it was misleading for the climate skeptics to compare Arctic temperatures 4,000 - 7,000 years ago with these modern warmings.
Question? How do we know what the temperature was 4000-7000 years ago?
all this talk of global warming is just a guide to what will happen. Its warmer than normal really. I live in the Detriot Metro area. The temp right now is around 9 degrees. Pretty cold, but in december its average somewhere around 46 degrees which is warm. I dont mind the cold, and nine degrees hurts my car more than me. Ill bet my life on this statement im going to make. With the current flow of cyclonic activity that continues to go from west to north from the pacific to atlantic. Which has no definition, but a possible location of production. I would say that signifigant information about climate change in the last lets say twenty years is all a pack of lies.

Global Warming is a production that is made. We as humans need fossil fuels to survive. Our cars, homes, business run on it. Natural gas, and petroleum, oil resources, nuclear energy, and most chemical productions help us at our cost. We pay and suffer physically from it. We have ignored alot about this. Not just the effects but the cause. We are always told is us. We are to blame, but who continues to profit from our losses? All these models are as good as shit. We see only whats in front of us. Whats ahead?

Well i hate to be such a downer but look at the present. The midwest is falling apart by the day due to job loss to the south and west. Its easier and cheaper to ship things there, and also to the east as well. So as a result of fossil fuel depleation distince becomes a hassle. So global warming effect every nation like that. Look it up. Check out a map and tell me place in the middle of countries arnt callapsing. Econmic development is hurting alot.

So our economy is another victim. Whatelse? Lets see humanity. Another personal problem. Not to many people really care about the "weather". People dont talk about it. They just state what they feel. No knowledge just bias. Like Chemtrails. Or Contrails. Or flouride, and DU. Do you who reads this know.

I saw a contrail yesterday. A plane flew by in the sky and a saw a white stream come from its engines but as cold as it was it didnt stay airborne for more than 10 sec. Then today as i go to work i dont even see a plane but there where two thin but differently thick line in the sky. Different from any cloud ever seen. But today was different. The way the chemtrails where friegtened me more than ever. They seem like slashes in the sky. Like this - - -------- -- --- --------- --- - - -. Like they where trying to be clouds. Som of them turned into whispy spots. Like a mares tail. But most didnt.

I have poems in mind:

Lines form checker boards in the sky as normal
i seem to ponder frequently about this game
visions like these form on the clearest of days
simple to wonder what is that i see above
no textbook or scientist will theory a cloud
we just look and wonder if this day is normal
thinking about why this cloud does not move
im used to invisioning this white fluff
gusting past with each wind mother earth howls
the picture becomes clear when you see them birthed
a bird of four tails takes flight in high heaven
sheding rainbows of color that turn neutral, tubular and ungodly.

Good morning. Anyone awake ? Get up, its a lovely morning, and the birds are singing melodies to Life and stuff........
Moonabove, the contrail was sending you a message in morse code, but you did not get it. Write it down next time, it may have been the Answer, or something............
Its all so obscure. What happens next ?
Well OK then. I think that now is a good time to lie in my hammock with my Alhambra. Answers most of my questions, everytime. I just love the sustain on a pretty chord.................
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE. THE WEEKEND IS HERE AT LAST, ENJOY IT!!!!!
Good answer Caffinehog!
it maybe mid morning but this blog is definitly dead.
Moonabove, the contrail was sending you a message in morse code, but you did not get it. Write it down next time, it may have been the Answer, or something............ thats good... this blog is dead...
Oh yeah! We can't wait for another hurricaine to drive up oil prices so we can get even richer!
How are you DOOMocrats doing?
thats good too... blog still dead...
29 degrees and snowing here...
hmmmmmmm no dry air her

lol

or her in the gulf

lol

there is some dry air her but not has march like a few weeks a go hmmmmmm


lol


hello evere one oh is her been looking at the dry air map and i noted that there seem to be not has march dry air in the Caribbean has it was a few weeks a good and if you look at the East Atlantic map you can see there is no dry air at all there may be a little but not march the gulf is the same way too
if it continues to not be dry, then look out when season starts...
Ahh...I dont want to be argumentative, but the Atlantic is very dry, even for March. Check out all the brown. Better yet, check out The Atl and EPac Tropical Genesis Page

I'll show you a few.
This is Verticle Instability for the entire tropical Atlantic. Instability is mostly caused by humid/moist air. The blue line is actual measurments the black line is average.

Here's the cloud brightness. Less cloud brightness means theres little cloud cover indicating dry air.


And this ones crazy. This is the E. Caribbean. The lack of clouds is off the charts.
129. ryang
Myles come to my blog.
Less cloud brightness means theres little cloud cover indicating dry air.

Actually, that is measuring the moisture in non-cloud covered areas; that is why it is labled "Cloud-cleared GOES Brightness Temperature". These graphs better show the amount of cloud cover (only show tops cooler than -40*C):



Good catch MichealSTL. It is WV brightness. Still dry as hell either way you look at it.
Posted By: ryang at 8:37 AM PST on February 17, 2007.

Myles come to my blog


ryang dont do that dont make evere one come to your blog they will come to your blog when they feel like comeing to your blog
Hello Taz.
hello : pottery
135. ryang
LOL Taz you tell devermark come to your blog all the time.
136. ryang
Hi Pottery.
LOL... If they want to come, they will come.
Yeah the Atlantic is bone dry for sure. Should moisten up in a couple months. And David just so you know that eastern Atlantic image isn't entirely accurate. The color scale for the eastern Atlantic image is "higher" than the color scale for the other images. So for example the black colors in the eastern Atlantic image would really be oranges and browns if viewed in a normal color scale. I'm not sure why that is the case, but that's what they did.
: ryang but i dont do it all the timebut some time but you do it evere day


see you all later
The color scale for the eastern Atlantic image is "higher" than the color scale for the other images.

The scales at the bottom of the images look the same to me.
142. ryang
Taz just drop it.
Well Michael try this. Here's the eastern Atlantic image from METEOSAT. Look at the area around 40w and 10n. Now look at the GOES-12 full Atlantic image. Look at the area around 40w and 10n again. See the color difference? In the GOES-12 image the area seems "drier" than on the METEOSAT image. I've noticed this many times so it's no coincidence.
Re; The Dry Caribbean.........the colours are OK, and I can confirm that at 11 N 61 W its as dry as it should be in May. And we dont expect any rain till june, and thats if the SAL does not deal a card on that. I bought a truck-load of water for my tanks yesterday, usualy do that from March or so. Its looking pretty bad actualy..........
....but we are getting through a LOT of beer..................
An interesting observation: the Caribbean was very dry during the winter in each of the last three years (2006 has not been updated):

2004:


2005:


2006:
Yes, that's sort of scary to think that it was that dry before 2005 as well. We'll have to see how it turns out.
hey there everybody been awhile,thought i'd just let you all know it was 23 here this morning and i live 40 miles ne of tampa have a great day
This is definately an anomaly:



None of the other years had shear drop like this during the winter, except for a short period (few days-week) and not as low.
hi everyone.
STL, some rainfall figs from my location. In Millimeters

yr Jan Feb mar apr

01 0 0 0 7
02 197 9 80 167
03 13 36 24 6
04 80 70 14 112
05 293 26 23 5
06 376 74 108 35
07 120 18 to date..............

Realy hard to read any sequence into that, I know. But the temp here used to be 80 F mean, and there was VERY Little variation from that. Recently, our daytime temps are regularly in the 90 s and the reason is surely the effect of the dry SAL ( plus our dwindling rainforrest ) etc. So the dry season has become more intense. I remember 10 yrs ago going to the beach to see the ladies lying in the sunshine for the intire day. Do that today, youre in need of medical attention.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to you........................
How are you today Pottery?
It got down to 28.8 F this morning at my house, coldest this winter so far!
I'm good, but out for a while............
It's only 67 here right now
It's only 67 here right now
only? its 29 and snowing right here... lol
67 is chilly for Florida
160. ryang
Good Afternoon Everyone.
This is what I currently have:

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Feb 17, 11:51 am CST
Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy
Temperature: 24F (-4C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: NW 21 G 30 MPH
Barometer: 29.96" (1015.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 18F (-8C)
Wind Chill: 9F (-13C)
Visibility: 3.00 mi.

Next week, all thoughts of cold will be gone:

Presidents' Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 46. Breezy, with a south wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Tuesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.
Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 48.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32.
Friday: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 54.

According to outlooks and models, the pattern may be shifting to what we had in December (warm East, cold West).
G'Afternoon Ryan. How are you?
This is what i have got now.

Waterford Lakes
Orlando, FL

Elevation: 122 ft / 37 m
Temperature: 67.1 F / 19.5 C
Dew Point: 28.1 F / -2.2 C
Humidity: 23%
Wind:
WNW at 2.7 mph / 4 km/h

Wind Gust: 8.3 mph / 13.4 km/h /
I'm back. Hi Ryan, STL, Storm2, GA guy...
Hi Pottery
166. ryang
TS2 i am good,Hey Pottery.
Cold in Toronto Ryan? Is it snowing
168. ryang
It's -20,but not snowing.
Any clouds
170. ryang
Overcast.
For my weather, enter PIARCO in the slot at the top of the WU page. currently 88 F.......
172. ryang
Sorry,it's -5 CELSIUS.
Your hotter than me by 11 degrees Pottery
...brrrrrrrrrrrrr, Ryang. heheheh. (sorry, could not resist )
I,m just a hot-man. The beer is cold though. ( Hope I'm not encouraging you into any slackness here )
Make that 21 degrees
177. ryang
So Pottery hows the weather down there.
Don't worry i never get encouraged
179. ryang
Pottery you got my mail.
check piarco at the top of the page Ryang. They say a 30 % chaance of rain next week. They are optomistic I think..........
Everybody is optomistic
182. ryang
Pottery it looks to be excessive heat.
183. ryang
Pottery it should be time to do a blog.
Red flag warning still in effect for all of Florida some of Georgia and the south of carolina.
Optomism is OK I suppose. But I'm a little pessimistic overall these days. We are behaving like termites.........
Who would want to be a termite
Whats a red flag warning ?
Fire weather Warning
OK, I think I better go and hoist some red flags here too then. Here the only time we see a red flag is on the beach....strong undertow, currents, bathe at yr own risk.!
A fire weather advisory/warning is issued when dry conditions in the advisory area result in a situation where forest or brush fires are possible.

Piarco weather says its 52 % humidity here. You are 23 % storm2. Heat index is at 91 F now. 52 is low for this Island............
Mr. Branson, of Virgin Air fame, is giving 25,000,000 $ to anyone who comes up with the idea that will remove the CO2 from the atmosphere. I'm gonna be RICH>
HA indeed!!!!!!!!! You have just HA "ed yourself out of 10,000,000 I was going to give to you. I'm going to leave it to my neighbours chicken instead !!!!
Your never goibng to win thats why i'm ha'ing
HA ! Sez hoo ?
So... CO2 really isn't a problem? CO2 is a problem and those saying it isn't are probably reluctant to give up the money machine? I usually just follow the moolah and am rarely surprised at who says what.
EH ?????????WHA ??????
ME and Wtf?
rlwalker, could you cut that down a little bit
You have to clarify that comment Walker. Its too esoteric for me I think.
Hoos Wtf ????????
I think that Walker just drew out the question a little bit more than needed
Do you know what 'wtf' means?
Where did Walker go to ? Its not fair to leave people in absolute confusion like that. ESPECIALLY on a Carnival Saturday just before Panorama finals start..
He just did a 'hit and run' blog post
AH, THAT Wtf. Sorry, I was not concentrating.heheheh
DUH!!!!!
A little teaser sentence in this afternoon's JAX wx discussion:

WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY LOOKS VERY INTERESTING
NEXT WEEKEND...STAY TUNED!

Does anyone know what that is about?
EH!?!?!?! WHAT!?!?!?!? NO!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!
exceeding duh !!! Lots of notice being paid to the SAL recently, Storm2. My feeling is ( in spite of models to the contrary ) that the SAL is going to prevent formation of most active systems this year in the trop. atlantic. Your thoughts ????????
Well it seems to me that the south is getting less snow each year while the northeast is getting more and more snow each year.Back in the 70's from then on forward to the beginning of the 21st century the south has recieved lots of snow and other types of precip while the north saw little.(besides the lake-effect snow)I can tell the difference because this year upstate NY and plus the NE a has been getting 12 feet of snow!While down here we're seeing little or no winter weather.
GA GUY, that probably means its going to be cold in Toronto, and warm in houston. But I may be completely misled here
SAL means South Atlantic?
DUH!! to the power of (*^% ... SAL is Sahara air layer. The dust and stuff,you know that.
Ofcourse. Well it probably will stall development untill it flutters out the window. The most famous thing most people are wondering is where the steering currents are going to set up this season. Are you one of them?
Hello ?
Yes indeed. !! I am in fact one of those steering currents. Yep. Thats me
Hello!!
i'm here.
What?!?! i'll say that in a better way. I mean are you one of the people who are wondering about the steering currents?
Hey guys
Hello?!
Hi Tropic. My and pottery are just insulting eachothers inteligence.
The GFS indicates a possible significant severe weather outbreak here on the 24th:



Specifically, what it is showing (meteogram) on the 24th (key to meteogram):

- pressure drops to around 990 mb
- LI falls to around -4 (LI values between -3 and -5 mean thunderstorms are probable)
- TTI rises to near 60 (Around 55, storms producing tornadoes are possible.)
- Heavy rainfall is shown in the same period
Your in for the 'Most BS Weather Ever' award STL
What the GFS is showing may not actually happen; right now, this is what the NWS is forecasting (what the GFS shows would occur Friday night through Saturday morning; the peak is around 1200z or 6:00 am on Saturday):

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Friday: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 58.
Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Obviously, at this point, they arn't going to say much because that is almost a week out and it will probably change a lot (previous runs had anything from 12 inches of snow to what you see above (rain) but without the instability or temperatures).
Unless the snow and the rain mix. Sleet will fall
I've got to go. Bye everyone
This is an example that I found in an old blog (from last March); dozens of warnings like this were issued last spring by the St. Louis NWS alone:

AT 419 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF SEDALIA. WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS HALF MILE WIDE TORNADO WHICH REMAINS ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO RACING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PILOT GROVE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUNCETON BY 440 PM CST. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...EXTREMELY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED IN THE PILOT GROVE AREA.
Well you're Mr. Sunshine,huh STL?LOL,I've got to go,too.
rlwalker~ CO2 is a big problem, this in no way says it isn't, this shows that we are near a peak of a natural cycle. When you consider what we've done with CO2 at the peak of the hot phase in the natural cycle & how CO2 amounts & temp relate, then one can see a little more of how crazy an experiment we are putting our enviroment through.
Gfs & comrades are so undecided on that low yet. Things look like they probibly will get interesting, end of next week or the weekend but the where, when & how interesting are unknown.
NellyStormGeeks is a troll. Ignore him. He posted similar stuff earlier, and has nothing intellegent to say.
Posted By: NellyStormGeeks at 7:26 PM CST on February 17, 2007. (hide)
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHAHAHHA


Sounds like one of cylonebuster's aliases (cyclonebuster says that as well). I know that CB also goes by nomoIce, and possibly other names.
237. ryang
STL Please help move this blog,RICDEAR.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

UPDATED TO RAISE NUMBER OF FATALITIES IN TORNADO 1

(click on link for complete statement)

Tonight, after the coldest day of the year - I am having a thunderstorm in NORTH Central FLORIDA now. AT 1 AM!!! This is totally bizarre. Ive NEVER seen anything like it.
Good Sunday Morning . Its a hot one !
G'Morning Pottery.

It's not warm here.

North and Central Florida is split down the middle by two warnings, on the Left a Freeze Warning and on the Right a Red Flag Warning.
Yes, but is this change in upwelling a new phenomenon? Or has it been going on for millions of years? The article implies that it is new, but does not directly state it, and gives no evidence that it hasn't happened before. Would we even KNOW if it happened 100 years ago? Or would fishermen just think that they had a bad year?
Hi Storm2. Strange weather indeed. Cold thunderstorms ? Could it be that the weather is changing ? I wonder how come .

On a different note, No, Im not realy trying to figure out the steering current set-up, and your post that we were just insulting each others intelligence could not have refered to me, since I dont have any. Especialy not this morning............LOL
Good point, Cafeinhog.......
Neutral Conditions are now in place....

Current Conditions
As of mid-February 2007 conditions indicate that the El Nio event has ended. SSTs are currently observed to be approximately 0.5C above average in the parts of the equatorial Pacific, particularly near the dateline. In the ENSO relevant regions of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have declined considerably since their peak values in December 2006. Cold SST anomalies have developed in the eastern Pacific, reaching approximately -1.0C below average near 125W. The deep, or downward, thermocline perturbations in the eastern Pacific, associated with the El Nio event, have been replaced over the past month with shallow anomalies. The upwelling Kelvin wave associated with the shallow thermocline anomalies originated in the off-equatorial western Pacific, and has been slightly amplified by large-scale easterly wind anomalies since late December. These easterly wind anomalies are also helping to draw these subsurface temperature anomalies toward the surface, resulting in the localized cold SST anomalies. Currently the thermocline is shallower than normal across most of the equatorial Pacific, and the Trade Winds have been anomalously easterly.

MORE HERE
Strange!?!?! It's weird. I have never seen a state nearly split down the middle by seperate weather Warnings.
El Nino is gone? So much for the forecast of El Nino lasting untill Mid May. HA
Good Morning 23.
Hi H23
The forecast for el nino to mid-may were based on information to hand then. I've been saying for a while, that we are basing our predictions on data that is out of sync because we dont have all the relevant data.Research has to be done to find the data that helps to control these phenomena. Historical data is boo because we've never been here before.
Hey guys!

I think the key isssue is now to see if la nina does indeed develope.In my opinion we could see a moderate to weak la nina come time for hurricane season around july-august time frame.The next australian update is feb 21.
Well it should be interesting
Statement as of 7:49 am EST on February 18, 2007


... 12 inches of snow on the ground at Indianapolis...

The snow depth at 700 am EST for Indianapolis was 12 inches. This is
the first time that snow depth at Indianapolis has reached 12 inches
in 25 years. The last time a 12 inch or higher snow depth was
observed at Indianapolis was 12 February 1982.

Snowfall records began at Indianapolis in 1884.


hey guys... perty interesting..
El Nino didnt bring me any rain. I wonder if there will be a wierd mix where La Nina brings us buckets. ITs been so dry here in So Cal we have nothing to lose at this point. El Nino wasnt doing anything besides setting up a blocking ridge and causing winds to kick up in the passes and canyons.

I know in So Cal around every 1/3 El Ninos are dry but near record setting dryness.
boring...
not you lightning, but there is no one on here.
With the exception of the cold snap in So Cal back in January (coldest in 10 years) it has been quite a borning winter in So Cal.
O ok :).

Yes I noticed a slow down in the blogs this month.
So Cal is dry and hot, indiana is snowy, florida is cool, and all is gradualy warming as spring draws near...
well ,talk to y'all later...
I am one who hides from the spring/summer sun. Where I am 90's and 100's become a daily thing. I dont have AC so I become very inactive during the season. I also work extra hours without getting payed just cause there is AC there. (I am an assistent administrator for a high school)
Because it it way too cold here near Orlando, I post this link to a video of a pilot doing his darnedest to give us some CO2/GW to help us out.
Video
Boss, the plane
Anyone on?
266. ryang
Good Evening all.
I've got to go for a late lunch
Good Evening?
It was windy here in S. florida and much colder than usual.. a few lose shingles from the hurricanes flew off today
Dr. M told us Aaron was going to do these blogs a few weeks ago. Nice point there Aaron about the wobble and over all annual temperature. It was nice to see that the American (academy of sciences?) finally caught up with the rest of the world on global warming in the news this morning.
though i only skimmed most of the comments, i find it odd that no one commented about the speed in which this temperature spike took place. the event 4-7000 years ago, not only was caused by astronomy and other natural events, but was also over a period of 3000 years and innacurate (summers warmer, but winters colder). this recent temperature spike was within 50, and all year. THAT'S scary, and indicative evidence of greenhouse gasses.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE PLAINS AND
OZARK REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE NUMBER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN FL AND THE SRN PART OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S.

..BROYLES.. 02/19/2007
Second winter w/o measurable snow :(

When does the thermohaline belt get disrupted and cast us into a mini Ice Age? I'm getting bored LOL.

Floodie
flood~ I read this lastnight~ Said the thermohaline belt has slowed~ expects atleast another 25%-50% drop in the next 100 years. In that time we could expect greater warming due to green house gasses & well the warm water gets stuck here. Didn't think the major brunt would hit til after 2100, though highly uncertain...you probibly won't get to see it.
Good afternoon,

Watching Favio with winds currently at 65kts with futher intensification possible.Damage with this cyclone could end up being rather extensive if favio continues to strengthen futher then forcasted.


When does the thermohaline belt get disrupted and cast us into a mini Ice Age? I'm getting bored LOL.

That is such a common misconception that I am sure that somebody is going around spreading that falsehood (LOL)... it is not true (for here or Europe). What will happen though is that the tropical Atlantic will get warmer and result in stronger tropical storms (but cooling would likely happen further north, such as off the East Coast).
Pinhole eye clearly visible on infrared imagery...

Conditions are forcasted to remain quite favorable for intensification with a lanfall near the mozambican coastline.


Good day everyone

Peace On Earth
Eye becoming better defined on modis...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Forcast Path

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
(100) days exactly till it starts all over again.Take advantage off this time and get ready for what end up being quite a ride this season.
Winds are now up to 80 kts on Favio...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W 16N70W MOVING RAPIDLY E. LIGHT RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS THE FIRST
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WINTER.
NELY
SURFACE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT W OF
70W. THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF
70W ARE THE ONLY AREAS WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Call it El Nino, call it Global Warming or just call it a weather pattern, but this winter has been freackin hot here in Puerto Rico and the drought began alot earlier. It usually stops raining here by march, but we havent got much rain here at all for about two months already!
Metro France now reports an Intense Tropical Cyclone Favio with 10 min sustained winds of 90 knots with wind gusts up to 130 knots. The systems center pressure is 945 hPa.
well benerica it sure has been raining here in pr this morning .79 inches lol! but could expect another 2 days of rain woooooot!
oh and a heavy surf advisory is up!!! and i am stuck at work :(
Is anyone here? It seems so quite on this blog, we'll it's been that way for a while I guess it will get busy come hurricane season. I heard someone saying that the something called Autralian comes out on Feb 21. What will that kinda let us know if Neutral conditions are going on know or what. And what about La Nina?
some one needs to update the dr m blog
Favio has looped round the south of Madagascar without making landfall on the island. I think thats weird
Hey TS2 & TAZ boring day on the blog and yes it needs to be updated it's been the same for about 2 or 3 days know. I wish they would talk about La Nina and the Neutral conditions I think that would be kinda interesting.I know we have a while til hurricane season but still at least that would be a interesting topic.
around 100 days to H Season. Aaron please update this blog
MArdi Gras in Full Swing Under PArtly Cloudy to Partly sunny skies...7
The fishin' Game?
Interesting low WNW of madagascar. Looks tropical on the satellite, but quickscat shows it as quite asymmetrical, a SW-NE trough.
What's going on with this one?
What happened to Rand?His blog disappeared.
Has Randrewl been zapped ? All references to him have gone, from previous blogs too. Whats up with that ??????
Yes Pottery. He has been banned and so has STL
I dont remember it ever raining here on a carnival tuesday before today, but it did this time . Strange portents ????????
What happenened ? They been cussing each other out in public or what ?
Words of advice..let it go.Open a beer .And move along..Its a parade route..Dont gossip like a Soap ..it looks bad.Use Wu-mail..Er now back to Mardi Gras..Urp!
{{Changed comment!}}
Whatever the reason, I'll miss both of them. I appreciated their knowledge and their comments.
it was some in that went on last night
Life goes on. I have a feeling we'll see them once more.
Hi Pat. OK. Hows your Carnival today ? It actually rained on some of ours, but the Masqueraders did not seem to notice. Just got home, exhausted, dont have the energy that I used to. Wonder why ?
Rand might be back. Come to Rays Blog. I think he is under the name "ihave27handguns"
The satelite images are showing some cloud across the trop. atlantic for the first time in a couple of weeks. Looks like things are setting up for more showers ? I hope so ......
Have you seen that 950mb low that is in the Atlantic?
er, 27 is out too.......
What
No I did not see that low. Can you link it ?
I can't find the site but its on Taz's Blog. It's the last picture.
Surface map with the 953mb low in the Atlantic.
Can't get into FSU models & what not.

When this blog is this slow always seems aproprate to post the Duldrums. N of Aulstralia is a bad spot for Duldrums this time of year. Their 'cane season should be picking up soon.