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The Northeast Heatwave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:08 AM GMT on July 07, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

The most significant weather event in the US on July 6, 2010 didn't show up on any radar. The geostationary satellites didn't see it in their constant watch over the Earth's atmosphere. Instead, the tale of this event was told by the thermometers, because the heatwave in the Northeast was the most significant event for July 6, and it will likely be the most important weather story for July 7.

The heat wave covers Pennsylvania to Maine, but Tuesday's worst was centered over New York City. All six of the stations used by the New York NWS office for climate reports (Central Park, La Guardia, JFK, Islip, Bridgeport, and Newark) set or tied the daily high temperature record. Newark and Central Park both reached 103 degrees F.

How unusual is this heat wave?
Figures 1 and 2 show how warm the highs and lows are compared to 30 year averages. Unless you were at the Great Lakes, the Midwest and Northeast have highs well above normal, with 10-15+ degree F differences over the coastal cities of the Northeast. Using my gridded temperature data, the low for New York City was 6 degrees F above normal, which should happen 30% of the time (1.1 standard deviations away from normal). The high was roughly 20 degrees above normal, which should happen only 0.29% of the time (3.04 standard deviations away from normal). This is an unusually strong heat wave.

Why it's hot
Basically, it's because there is "the Bull of a high pressure ridge [over the NE US]" to quote the Mount Holly NWS office forecast discussion. The large ridge of high pressure is forcing air to slowly descend across the Northeast, preventing clouds from forming. Without no clouds and plenty of daylight, the Sun heats the ground which then heats the air.

When will it cool down?
That's an excellent question. A trough of low pressure off the coast will bring onshore winds to the Tri-State area and MA by Thursday, so they should cool down a bit. The southern part of the heat wave, DC and Philadelphia, will have to wait for a cold front to arrive from the Great Lakes sometime Saturday to get relief.

Population affected
As Figure 3 shows, heat advisories covered most of the urban areas of the northeastern US. By my calculations, over 32 million people were under a heat advisory. Different offices have different guidelines for heat advisories. The NWS office responsible for New York issues a heat advisory if the heat index will be above 95 deg. F for two or more days or if the index will be above 100 deg. F for any length of time.


Fig.1 Plot of the difference between maximum temperature (the high for the day) and average maximum temperature in degrees F for July 6.


Fig.2 Plot of the difference between minimum temperature (the low for the day) and average minimum temperature in degrees F for July 6.


Fig.3 Plot of the active heat advisories across the northeastern US for July 6.

Heatwave impacts
The predominant impact from heat waves is increased mortality. CDC estimates that over 8,000 people died during heat waves from 1979 to 2003. That's more than all of the deaths due to lightning, flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The elderly, sick, poor, and very young face the worst of the effects of the heat. Wikipedia has an interesting article describing the Chicago Heat Wave of 1995, a modern heat wave with a large number of fatalities due to the heat.

Heatwave coping strategies
The Centers for Disease Control have some tips for dealing with the heat. In summary, drink plenty of water, spend time in air-conditioned buildings, and wear light-colored clothing.

Is this heat wave due to global warming?
Ah, the $64,000 question. In the absence of detailed analysis, it's hard to specify the exact cause for this heat wave, from a meteorological or climatological view point. However, events like this are consistent with research showing that heat waves are more likely with
global warming
. I like the metaphor of loaded dice, global warming is not specifically responsible for any heat wave, but it will make them happen more often.

Tropics
My thinking on Invest 96L is unchanged from this blog entry. In summary, I believe that 96L has a <50 % chance becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall. If it does so, it will likely be near the coast when that happens. In any event though, the winds and waves it generates will likely disrupt oil spill recovery efforts. Also, I would expect a broad area of showers and 20+ mph winds will affect the Gulf coast somewhere from south Texas to Louisiana.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon to talk about the tropics.

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Inactivity:
I think we will wake up to TD2,this will most likely become a TS with 50 mph winds.


Thats sounds about right.. based of the storms recent intensification
1502. Levi32
The dropsondes the recon plane has been dropping have confirmed a nice, closed, well-defined circulation at the surface, though they haven't gotten really close to the surface center yet to see how tight it is. The plane is up at the 640mb level and thus the winds being reported here are in the mid-levels. The mid-level center appears elongated based on these observations, which is expected since it's still trying to get stacked over the surface center to the north.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That is substantial -
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0087/JUL
OVLY/TCFA/072000Z9/JUL/1OF1/TCFA AL9610/METOC
LINE/2//G/234800N7/0933600W1/260600N4/0984800W9
LINE/2//G/251200N0/0924800W3/221800N3/0943000W6
LINE/2//G/221800N3/0943000W6/243600N5/0994200W4
LINE/2//G/243600N5/0994200W4/273000N2/0980000W7
LINE/2//G/273000N2/0980000W7/251200N0/0924800W3
TEXT/20//G/211800N2/0961200W8/TCFA AL9610
TEXT/20//G/201800N1/0961200W8/VALID UNTIL 082100Z
TEXT/20//G/191800N9/0961200W8/WINDS: 20-25 KTS
TEXT/20//G/181800N8/0961200W8/MVG: WNW AT 13 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
NNNN

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I agree, it should have been red regardless, but it looks like this team is putting out higher percentages than we expect, just like some (kimberlain?) put out lower than we expect. Just something to throw out there!
LOL, yup.
1506. NRAamy
I'm good, Dak...just feel seasick...


:)
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


95L looked 100X better than 96L has ever looked and I didn't know that you were a mod and I also didn't know that they allowed personal attacks on this board. 96L will make landfall tomorrow morning so it's time to focus on the next storm.

x100 better more like the the other way around :P
1508. IKE
*Called in to my optometrist and made an appt.*

Click me!

Looks like the NHC lost their conservitive side,lol.
i think they should have put the area east of he bahamas on a low potential
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 96L
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

Issued: Wed 07 Jul 2010 20:00Z
1512. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Oh please! Give it a rest. 95L didn't have half the structure of this...totally different critter anyway...95 L was from a baroclinic process, this is purely tropical.



80% Almost a TD... if it gets an update to TD before 2:00AM is there a consolation prize??
1320
NRA - funny how that happens - still a bit quesy. HEARD that one coming before it hit.
Quoting HouGalv08:
Per the NWS forecast discussion issued at 15:13 this afternoon, I'd imagine so--"HOWEVER IT WAS IN-
TERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE NOW KEEPING THESE ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR M0ST OF SE TX ON FRI. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE
FROM THAT WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE S/SW AS
IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND."


Thats what I was wondering about. Does that mean they think the whole system will swing NE after landfall? I didn't notice any model but the 18z CMC showing this.
Wow... 80%!!
Quoting Drakoen:



LOL!!
Quoting StormW:


NW.


so is it still going to the Brownsville area?
Earthquake in California:

looks like a TD to me NOW.... so I would be surprised if it wasn't upgraded soon...

TD tonight 90% ... named TS tomorrow 70%..

Cat1 at landfall --- 20%
1523. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:





LOL
Quoting TxMarc71:


How can you live anywhere in the contental U.S. and not have an A/C?? Thats suicide by ignorance in my opinion. I've lived all over the U.S. during my time in the Navy and I know for a fact that it gets hot enough in the East every year to demand an A/C plain and simple..

Seems like the headline should be .. "record number of heatwave residients have NO A/C"?

Its summer time in the USA... you need an A/C I dont care where u live unless its Alaska or Hawaii..

Fact stil remains.. record heat OR record cold here never makes national news nor should any other area getting a good taste of summer right now..



Our grandparents didnt have A/C either yet you and I still managed to somehow materialize..

Think about it...


That's ridiculous - tons of people don't have AC - I grew up in a house without ac and managed to survive.
Quoting Drakoen:





LOL poor horse
1526. SLU


80% chance


somehow, I knew this thing was gonna get going at the last minute.. I know u experts r probably thinking it doesnt have time to be a cane but I have this gut feeling it will be at least a category 1. from past canes what warrants mandatory evacuations ? man the clouds here in corpus christi looks ominous !!
1528. USSINS
Quoting Drakoen:






Funny, Drak. Humor. WTG! LOL.

And, Ike, don't feel bad. I'm blind in one eye and can't see with the other either. ;)

But, imo, 96L should have already warranted TD status. I'm not saying TS by any means. But, a TD, yes.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Prelim mag 5.9

* 22 km (13 miles) NNW (332°) from Borrego Springs, CA
* 23 km (14 miles) SE (131°) from Anza, CA
* 33 km (20 miles) NE (52°) from Lake Henshaw, CA
* 45 km (28 miles) S (174°) from Palm Springs, CA
* 94 km (58 miles) NE (41°) from San Diego, CA


I'm watching the USGS site and see nothing other than a 2.7 for the L.A. area.

There was this - yesterday or very early today: MAP 5.4 2010/07/07 23:53:33 33.417 -116.483 11.7 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
1531. Jynni99
Quoting zoomiami:


That's ridiculous - tons of people don't have AC - I grew up in a house without ac and managed to survive.


LOL I have 2...
Quoting StormW:


Oh please! Give it a rest. 95L didn't have half the structure of this...totally different critter anyway...95 L was from a baroclinic process, this is purely tropical.

yea 95L barely looked like a thunderstorm. It was a said excuse for an invest. I think 96L could easily make TD status tonight but I just dont think it has the time to get to Bonnie...it will be close and could go either way. def leaning towards it having near zero chance for hurricane.
1533. centex
I can assume we will see a model shift to right and it may get out of the coolest Alex waters.
1534. Drakoen
AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005,
I'm wondering if it's the same fault as the easter quake. And I certainly hope that's not a foreshock. Looks like it's going to be a long night.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

yea 95L barely looked like a thunderstorm. It was a said excuse for an invest. I think 96L could easily make TD status tonight but I just dont think it has the time to get to Bonnie...it will be close and could go either way. def leaning towards it having near zero chance for hurricane.


oh yea I think all of us think a hurricane is very very slim

TD, or 50mph TS at best, keep in mind with the way the Texas coastline is shaped, if it comes in a bit further north it may allow 96L another 6-12 hours over water
Hope everyone is ok who were near the earthquake.
Quoting Drakoen:
AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005,
It's no longer a disturbance and now classified as a "low". Pressure went down a couple of millibars and winds are at 35mph.
hi guys, hope everyone is good.

my girlfriend just called me from palm springs, they felt the earthquake she said it lasted about 30 seconds with a jerking motion. the condo she is staying in has a little damage with outside tiles that came off.
Quoting Drakoen:
AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005,


Hi Drak...Could you please post the link to that page? Mine got lost in the clutter. Thanks!
Hunters have found a very broad low at the mid levels with a minimum extrapolated surface pressure of 1002.3 (unless I missed some that are even lower). Reminds me of Alex (albeit this storm doesn't have nearly as long before land as Alex did at this point in his development).

Time: 23:19:30Z
Coordinates: 22.7833N 94.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.6 mb (~ 18.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,871 meters (~ 12,700 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.3 mb (~ 29.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 340%uFFFD at 3 knots (From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph) Air Temp:
7.0%uFFFDC (~ 44.6%uFFFDF) Dew Pt:
7.0%uFFFDC (~ 44.6%uFFFDF) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
34 knots* (~ 39.1 mph*) SFMR Rain Rate:
20 mm/hr* (~ 0.79 in/hr*) (*) Denotes suspect data


That's a typical pressure for a TS.
Drak - with a closed low doesn't that make it a TD?

Hi everyone - forgot my manners, was a little riled by the ignorance of no AC etc. Its amazing how many people think the way they live is the only way to live.



Quoting cccidojr1:
somehow, I knew this thing was gonna get going at the last minute.. I know u experts r probably thinking it doesnt have time to be a cane but I have this gut feeling it will be at least a category 1. from past canes what warrants mandatory evacuations ? man the clouds here in corpus christi looks ominous !!


I have had just a trace of rain here in Corpus, sun is bright right now where I live.
I dont think there would be a mandatory evac for a Cat 1 but I could be wrong. Maybe out on the island


Quoting zoomiami:


That's ridiculous - tons of people don't have AC - I grew up in a house without ac and managed to survive.


Thats exactly my point (without knowing how old you are).. but in this day and age everyone should have an A/C.. or at least a place that they can go for a cool refuge
i.e. - church, mall, grocery store, sit in car?

My main point is, regardless of where you live, summer heat is very hard on those that are already very old or very sick..

National news never reports heat related deaths that occur here (SE TEXAS) EVERY EVERY EVERY SUMMER on the NE coast?? its silly... its summer.. its gets hot... its hard on some people regardless of the logistics of the situation...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Earthquake in California:



About 50 miles SE of me ... funny it didn't feel stronger ... I'm much closer than OC or San Diego. Mebbe I'm getting jaded after so long in SoCal. If stuff isn't flying around, it "ain't bad."
Quoting Hurricanes101:


LOL poor horse


Please stop beating the dead horse in the buttocks or crotch, can't tell which one, and continue the tropical discussion.
Houston, do we have a problem with "Bonnie to be" that lies over the ocean, 96L is moving NW, From La/tx to tx/mx borders has to be on alert imo.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

yea 95L barely looked like a thunderstorm. It was a said excuse for an invest. I think 96L could easily make TD status tonight but I just dont think it has the time to get to Bonnie...it will be close and could go either way. def leaning towards it having near zero chance for hurricane.


95L seriously looked like a subtropical Tracy.
1549. Drakoen
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi Drak...Could you please post the link to that page? Mine got lost in the clutter. Thanks!


Link
if it upgraded at 11 then more than likely we will see bonnie out this
Quoting Houstonia:


I'm watching the USGS site and see nothing other than a 2.7 for the L.A. area.

There was this - yesterday or very early today: MAP 5.4 2010/07/07 23:53:33 33.417 -116.483 11.7 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA


Trust me it was now :-)

2010 July 07 23:53:33 UTC

mag 5.4

Here's the USGS link again

Cali quake
1553. IKE
248NM Brownsville radar....

1554. Drakoen
Quoting zoomiami:
Drak - with a closed low doesn't that make it a TD?

Hi everyone - forgot my manners, was a little riled by the ignorance of no AC etc. Its amazing how many people think the way they live is the only way to live.





96L is pretty much on the verge of becoming a tropical depression
Quoting Drakoen:


96L is pretty much on the verge of becoming a tropical depression
I would expect a renumber at any time...
Quoting btwntx08:
if it upgraded at 11 then more than likely we will see bonnie out this


I'm almost sure this will be at least TS Bonnie by landfall..
80%...hmmmm
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You are only looking at convection. There are a lot of things in favor of that percentage, and if the convection was good than 96L would be a TD.

Ditto.. I had just got on and looked at the Visible only when I said TD@8:00
Organization was good, vertically integrated as Levi has been waiting for all day, nice circulation.
Of course when I saw the convection afterwards I said $#@!$..
1559. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would expect a renumber at any time...


I'm holding my breath.
1560. 900MB
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Earthquake in California:



5.9 is not a biggie, but very active down there lately and this one is further North than the last series, hopefully not a foreshock!
Hi Storm-- sure you could tell a lot of stories of places without AC -- military was never one to see to all the creature comforts.

By highlighting that area are you indicating that you believe it is a TD?
Quoting melwerle:
I'm wondering if it's the same fault as the easter quake. And I certainly hope that's not a foreshock. Looks like it's going to be a long night.


Nope different spot.
Drak - thanks. One question I had the other day, that sad to say I've forgotten. Why is that an area will get the circle with a percentage of development, but not get an invest category?
Quoting RobertM320:


But you know, MH09, Hardcore's got a point. When everyone along the LA/MS coast was watching 95L, we were told to stop wasting time, it wasn't anything. Well, other than the actual breadth of the storm, 96L's pressure is no lower, winds are no higher, and circulation is no more closed than 95L's was, and yet everyone's in a tizzy.....not arguing here, just making a legitimate point.
I completely understand especially considering the oil spill recovery efforts. But 96L is more organized that 95L and warrants our attention, 95L is the past, and now we have to look at the future.
AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 65, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Those are the major changes in this ATCF update..
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Nope different spot.

I know it's a different spot but is it the same fault line. btw 1560 - a 5.9 is big as far as I'm concerned. At least it felt that way to me!
1567. IKE
That's got to be frightening experiencing an earthquake. Never went through one here in Florida. Apparently it wasn't a serious one...from what I've read on here.
They might a little while to see any start of impressive convection, it'll probably have high enough winds to be classified Bonnie by then too.
Quoting cccidojr1:
somehow, I knew this thing was gonna get going at the last minute.. I know u experts r probably thinking it doesnt have time to be a cane but I have this gut feeling it will be at least a category 1. from past canes what warrants mandatory evacuations ? man the clouds here in corpus christi looks ominous !!


try not to use those words: "gut feeling"
1571. IKE
Updated image....0015UTC...

I just now noticed -- TS-strength winds on the northeast side:



Time: 21:36:00Z
Coordinates: 25.7667N 90.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 638.8 mb (~ 18.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,915 meters (~ 12,844 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.1 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 136° at 35 knots (From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Pretty far from the COC, but then again, the COC on this storm is quite large currently.
1573. Drakoen
Quoting zoomiami:
Drak - thanks. One question I had the other day, that sad to say I've forgotten. Why is that an area will get the circle with a percentage of development, but not get an invest category?


Whether or not something gets invest status is completely up to the forecaster. Invest status allows the forecaster to get additional information on a system such as computer models.
Quoting IKE:
Updated image....0015UTC...



your pic shows me 96L now has excellent structure
07/2345 UTC 23.8N 93.6W T1.5/1.5
1576. Levi32
Quoting zoomiami:
Drak - thanks. One question I had the other day, that sad to say I've forgotten. Why is that an area will get the circle with a percentage of development, but not get an invest category?


Invests have no required criteria and are a completely subjective declaration. Forecasters can declare an invest whenever they feel that they want to investigate a disturbance and run model forecasts on it.
96L moving towards the NW between 18z and 00z ATCF coordinate fixes.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
AL, 96, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 65, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Those are the major changes in this ATCF update..


What does LO stand for?
Thanks Drak & Levi -- makes sense (I guess)
Quoting KarenRei:
I just now noticed -- TS-strength winds on the northeast side:



Time: 21:36:00Z
Coordinates: 25.7667N 90.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 638.8 mb (~ 18.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,915 meters (~ 12,844 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.1 mb (~ 29.77 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 136° at 35 knots (From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.7°C (~ 42.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Pretty far from the COC, but then again, the COC on this storm is quite large currently.


They might make this directly to TS Bonnie if this is the case.
SAB up to 1.5. Let's see what the TAFB and CIRA show.
Quoting jamesrainier:


What does LO stand for?
Low.
Wind shifted to the NNE this morning here in S. Tex. I knew then the low was getting deeper and closer. Have had some passing showers today. Skeeters are loving it!!
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Storm-- sure you could tell a lot of stories of places without AC -- military was never one to see to all the creature comforts.

By highlighting that area are you indicating that you believe it is a TD?

I spent my childhood growing up in Army housing and we only had AC when we got down in Alabama. In Illinois we had to put in our own window units. The day my dad bought a cheap one and put in my room is one of the most memorable days of my life.
Quoting jamesrainier:


What does LO stand for?


Low.

Other abbreviations they use:

DB=Disturbance
WV=Wave
TD=Tropical Depression
TS=Tropical Storm
HU=Hurricane
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They might make this directly to TS Bonnie if this is the case.

depends...if it is far from center and just associated with a thunderstorm and not gradient winds they will throw that one out. Its a tough call.
Alright, if they do call 96L a TD (or maybe even a TS, judging by recon's SFMR reading) at 11 you'll want to look for these things.

1) ATCF saying 'renumber from al96 to al02
2) NRL taking down 96L
3) NRL putting up 02L.NONAME
1590. Levi32
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.
Evening everybody... interesting to see 96L look like it may finally get something together....

Quoting weatherman12345:
I think they should have put the area east of the Bahamas on a low potential.
Maybe tomorrow if it's still there they'll consider it. Such areas really need to persist long enough to develop a LLC, and while there is some vorticity in the area, I have a feeling it's not down to the surface.

BTW, did anybody look at the Discussion?

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 15W/16W S
OF 17N. A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS NEAR THE
NRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
17N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

This one already has a low analysed at the northern end! I have a feeling this is going to help pull the ITCZ up towards or over 10, and may in fact signal the beginning of CV season.... but we shall see what we shall see....
Quoting houstongator:

I spent my childhood growing up in Army housing and we only had AC when we got down in Alabama. In Illinois we had to put in our own window units. The day my dad bought a cheap one and put in my room is one of the most memorable days of my life.


Yep -- in NJ we could only have window units. However, I refused to move to Key West unless they had central air! lol
1593. Story
The last mandatory evac for the Corpus Christi area was for Rita. I have lived in Corpus all my life and they will evac the island for a Cat 1 that comes too close... they base the evac warning on the tides for the Kennedy Causeway, usually several days in advance. They will can a county-wide evac if we are landfall, for anything North of a strong Cat 2, or massive rains that will inhibit city functions. At least that is how they have worked it in the past. I for one, seldom leave the area... it would take a Rita to move me out again...
1594. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's been paired up with Stewart for a while I think. I know for sure he was with Stewart during that Special TWO when 95L got upped to 60%.
notice the nice outflow/expansion on the north side of the center.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

depends...if it is far from center and just associated with a thunderstorm and not gradient winds they will throw that one out. Its a tough call.


Yea Hal, that might be what they're dealing with.
1598. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's 1 of the 2 that raised 95L from near 0 to 60.
1599. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:
Updated image....0015UTC...



Well lol, there goes the convection :O
1600. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


He's 1 of the 2 that raised 95L from near 0 to 60.


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.
96L has good structure. Reminds me of Erin 2007.


Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.

Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.
I think you're brain glitching. In case you want to learn a little about him:

Q & A for NHC - John Cangialosi

1604. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it.


I've seen his name before...since the season started.
Quoting StormW:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


Under that terminology, it seems they have little choice in designating 96L a Depression rather quickly.
RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT THIS IS A WEATHER ALERT FROM CAYMAN HURRICANE CENTER RED ALERT 80% VIA NHC TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE ENROUTE TO LOCATION

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN



000
NOUS42 KNHC 061530 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 06 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-036 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 23.0N 91.0W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/0330Z
D. 25.0N 93.5W
E. 08/0445Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 08/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 06/1800Z, 07/0600Z AND 07/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 06/1210Z.
B. NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
000
FZNT27 KNHC 072113
OFFN06
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR 29N95W. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N FRI THROUGH MON.

NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
.TONIGHT...E OF TROUGH SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING
6 TO 8 FT N OF 28N AND 8 TO 12 FT S OF 28N. W OF TROUGH E TO NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU...E OF 96W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. W
OF 96W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU NIGHT...W OF 93W SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. E
OF 93W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS W PART.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W OF 95W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6
FT IN SE SWELL. E OF 95W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 5 TO
10 KT NE PART. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.SAT...S OF 28N SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF 28N
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KT E OF 93W. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
.TONIGHT...N OF 21N E OF 94W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT N OF 23N AND 4 TO 6 FT S OF 23N. ELSEWHERE SE TO S WINDS 10
TO 15 KT EXCEPT NW TO N WINDS NW PART. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT N OF 22N
AND 1 TO 2 FT S OF 22N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
NEAR LOW PRES.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT NW
PART. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT N OF 22N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW PART.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
N OF 21N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 21N.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT NE WINDS 20
KT WITHIN 90 NM OF YUCATAN COAST IN THE EVENINGS. SEAS 3 TO 5

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
.TONIGHT...W OF 88W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W PART.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5. N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S PART.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT N OF
26N.
.SUN AND MON...S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. FROM 25N TO 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT N OF
26N.
.SUN AND MON...S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. FROM 25N TO 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$


WUNDERKIDCAYMAN
All visitors remember that all opinions on this blog are from amateur enthusiasts and are not reflective of the NHC. They are therefore highly suspect and for entertainment purposes only!
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it.


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.


He's got a yellow stripe on his bumper.... NASCAR speak for he is a rookie. He will be pared with someone all season.
1611. Patrap
TWO-itis ?
1612. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Right ok but anyone recall seeing him prior to that? It looks like a new face to me, but I'm not completely familiar with the NHC staff and who all's on it besides the forecasters who regularly write the TC advisories/outlooks/discussions.


John Cangialosi
1613. IKE
1607....If you're old enough I've got a 7 and 7 here waiting on you.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody... interesting to see 96L look like it may finally get something together....

Maybe tomorrow if it's still there they'll consider it. Such areas really need to persist long enough to develop a LLC, and while there is some vorticity in the area, I have a feeling it's not down to the surface.

BTW, did anybody look at the Discussion?

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 15W/16W S
OF 17N. A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS NEAR THE
NRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
17N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

This one already has a low analysed at the northern end! I have a feeling this is going to help pull the ITCZ up towards or over 10, and may in fact signal the beginning of CV season.... but we shall see what we shall see....
1615. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


He's got a yellow stripe on his bumper.... NASCAR speak for he is a rookie. He will be pared with someone all season.


Thanks. Stewart's a good guy to be paired with.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)


Love them.
So where's Reed now? No circle around his low he's been bragging about and said there should be one. He also was dowcasting this. No matter if this develops or not we don't need rain from this we have been getting hammered in houston and galveston and the entire Texas Coast. I was hoping Levi and StormW had some magical powers and could just make this thing dissapear lol.
1618. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)


That's ridiculous if a TWO is based on who is on shift. I'm not saying it is or isn't but it's wrong if that's how they operate.
Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN"


I could be brain-glitching but I don't recall seeing this guy before.



NHC - John Cangialosi
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/q_and_a_200911_john_cangialosi.shtml
Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L has good structure. Reminds me of Erin 2007.




I bet Oklahoma hopes this is not another Erin! That is the storm that moved up that way and restrengthened. I still have pictures of the heavy rain from Erin...I think, from what we got here in Houston.
1622. IKE
Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!


LOL.
Cangliosi has been there for a couple years... mainly working TAFB side, I think. He looks like he's been "training" [being mentored, I mean] for a while, because he's been writing TWDs for a while but only recently have I seen his name on ones by itself.

Also, for some reason I vaguely recall about 3-4 years ago there was a female Cangliosi there (with TAFB) who only stayed for a year, then went back to NWS northeastern office, IIRC....

But all this could be completely wrong....
I see we have code red.Looks like we could have bonnie soon.The wave by the bahamas region doesn't look so bad either.
1625. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


That's ridiculous if a TWO is based on who is on shift. I'm not saying it is or isn't but it's wrong if that's how they operate.


lol. The TWOs are based on what the forecaster(s) on duty observe. Subjective.
WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
All visitors remember that all opinions on this blog are from amateur enthusiasts and are not reflective of the NHC. They are therefore highly suspect and for entertainment purposes only!


Seriously?? There are more credentials on here than you can shake a stick at. Not to mention several future mets currently in school. You view tropical weather as entertainment?? Wow.
StormW, how does a tropical system strengthen over land?
Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!

Quoting StormW:


I'll take 2 IKE!

yea send one this way...been a crazy week.
1630. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

I think you're brain glitching. In case you want to learn a little about him:

Q & A for NHC - John Cangialosi


Quoting Drakoen:


John Cangialosi


Thanks, seems like a nice guy. It should be nice to have a new face around on the forecast team.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?
What's the post number that you said 80%?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Cangliosi has been there for a couple years... mainly working TAFB side, I think. He looks like he's been "training" [being mentored, I mean] for a while, because he's been writing TWDs for a while but only recently have I seen his name on ones by itself.

Also, for some reason I vaguely recall about 3-4 years ago there was a female Cangliosi there (with TAFB) who only stayed for a year, then went back to NWS northeastern office, IIRC....

But all this could be completely wrong....


Michelle Mainelli, she is now at NCEP. TAFB forecasters almost always write the TWD.
Weather wise there are some very intelligent people on here.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
WoooooHoooooooo 80% I got it right!! ok where is my cookie?



Here you go.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the post number that you said 80%?


Oh.... I had to post it??? Dang it..

LOL
1637. spathy
Hi all:0)
Does anyone have the loop of 96L when its LLC shot away to the NW?
What was it around 8:15 last evening?
I would love to put that away for later.
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?
Quoting IKE:


That's ridiculous if a TWO is based on who is on shift. I'm not saying it is or isn't but it's wrong if that's how they operate.


IDK, it could just be a couple coincidences, but I do believe that each team has their slight biases.
Quoting StormW:
From 18Z

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


so landfall this time tomorrow night?

unless it goes further north
1643. bappit
Just an idle thought ... who would you want to be paired up with during your rookie season?
Post#1593 Hey Story, the funny thing is I evacuated TO Corpus Christi from Galveston during Rita!
Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?


South Texas or Mexico..... :) I have absolutely no idea.....
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


He was also one of the forecasters that put up the four circles

Link

Even more evidence of how they are the least conservative team (Stewart/Cangialosi)
I think next advisory 96L will probably go down to yellow w/ 0 percent.
Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?


RUFUS!! Stop that! SmileyCentral.com
1649. gator23
Yikes the Mexicans in that area don't need this.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Oh.... I had to post it??? Dang it..

LOL
You can't get anything past MiamiHurricanes09
Quoting bappit:
Just an idle thought ... who would you want to be paired up with during your rookie season?
Avila! He's my favorite out of the entire NHC team.
1652. spathy
Quoting StormW:


As in? Example please.

Not to but in but the only storm I can think of that did something close to strengthening over a watery land was Wilma?!
Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?
Not exactly,but it could shape up to be one.I feel like this is the foreshadowing part.Also Bonnie of 2004 formed in almost the same location as this soon to be bonnie will.
Quoting 1647. sebastianflorida 12:44 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

ok and why would you say that? Give us a reason
1655. gator23
Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?

not at all.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
You can't get anything past MiamiHurricanes09
Lol, at least not easily.
Was wondering after reading post 1621 (Erin)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


RUFUS!! Stop that! SmileyCentral.com


Hi Homeless...lol...
1659. Patrap
Food for thought for the NHC "B" team


Tropical Storm Hermine 1998






95L

Quoting Levi32:
".....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
both of them been around for a few years, Stewart longer though from what I can recall.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Michelle Mainelli, she is now at NCEP. TAFB forecasters almost always write the TWD.
Yah, it was the Italian name that threw me off.... lol...

But if pple would read more than the TWO, and would look at the TWD every six hours, they would

1) get more detailed info about the state of the atmosphere or at least confirmation that the "experts" are thinking along similar lines as we amateurs have been thinking

2) would know the names of the pple who work in and out of NHC, since TAFB is not as separate as it seems. IOW, a lot of pple who write TWOs are also writing TWDs....

Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?


Don't you know Rufus? It starts with Mexico and Alex. Between Brownsville and Corpus for Bonnie. Between Corpus and Houston for Colin and so on...everyone gets a turn in the gulf lol j/k!!
1664. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
1665. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
Just an idle thought ... who would you want to be paired up with during your rookie season?


Avila or Stewart.
Quoting IKE:
1607....If you're old enough I've got a 7 and 7 here waiting on you.


Make it a Crown and 7.. or Crown and Coke and were in business!!
Quoting IKE:
1607....If you're old enough I've got a 7 and 7 here waiting on you.


Well I am not 1607, but if your serving...
1668. gator23
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Post#1593 Hey Story, the funny thing is I evacuated TO Corpus Christi from Galveston during Rita!

you should have gone inland.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yah, it was the Italian name that threw me off.... lol...

But if pple would read more than the TWO, and would look at the TWD every six hours, they would

1) get more detailed info about the state of the atmosphere or at least confirmation that the "experts" are thinking along similar lines as we amateurs have been thinking

2) would know the names of the pple who work in and out of NHC, since TAFB is not as separate as it seems. IOW, a lot of pple who write TWOs are also writing TWDs....



Marine Weather Discussion also has a lot of good info.
Quoting PtownBryan:


Don't you know Rufus? It starts with Mexico and Alex. Between Brownsville and Corpus for Bonnie. Between Corpus and Houston for Colin and so on...everyone gets a turn in the gulf lol j/k!!


lol...I was actually thinking that the other day..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Avila! He's my favorite out of the entire NHC team.
With u on this one... he has a fine sense of drama, and possibly even a fine sense of humor... doesn't seem to take himself too seriously...
1672. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Food for thought for the NHC "B" team


Tropical Storm Hermine 1998






95L



They screwed up not sending a recon into 95L. They screwed up again today by canceling the recon.

I saw Crown Weather's take on 95L. He/she...not sure if it's a man or woman...thought it was a TD.
1673. spathy
Quoting Patrap:
Food for thought for the NHC "B" team


Tropical Storm Hermine 1998






95L


Tell me please where I am wrong.
Looks to me that 95 had better outflow.
And TS herm had more CDO.
Would this be correct as I try and refresh my terminology?
Oh and TS herm had a more organized LLC?
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless...lol...


Lol. SmileyCentral.com
We have been lucky with these storms this year...they just need to stay away from the relief well until it is done. Once that oil flow is stopped then cleanup will be more effective. We cant afford delays in the relief well drilling.
Quoting bappit:
Just an idle thought ... who would you want to be paired up with during your rookie season?


Avila or Pasch
Quoting IKE:


They screwed up not sending a recon into 95L. They screwed up again today by canceling the recon.

I saw Crown Weather's take on 95L. He/she...not sure if it's a man or woman...thought it was a TD.


95L is gone, seriously how many times we going to beat a dead horse?
Quoting CapeObserver:


Seriously?? There are more credentials on here than you can shake a stick at. Not to mention several future mets currently in school. You view tropical weather as entertainment?? Wow.
That is not what he said, he said opinions on here were mostly entertainment. I agree that a lot are, including mine. Some on here, they know who they are, are knowlegeable, but most just need to pay attention to those folks and post just once in awhile so we know people are on this blog.
1679. IKE
Quoting TxMarc71:


Make it a Crown and 7.. or Crown and Coke and were in business!!


Crown Royal is good stuff....smooth booze.

Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


Well I am not 1607, but if your serving...


Got enough to go around. Heck if I run out the liquor store is only 6 miles away!
1680. Story
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Post#1593 Hey Story, the funny thing is I evacuated TO Corpus Christi from Galveston during Rita!


LOL! I would have stayed myself, but the family was yelling at me to leave (I live in a mobile home)... I was watching the postings here and closely monitoring the NHC and telling them it was going to shift... so why run...

Well, I left with my kids and the blasted cane followed the Texas coast right behind me. I went to Ark to a girlfriend's house, and here came Rita. We were flooded in for days..

and my family called me and asked me why I didn't come back... seems the evac notice was lifted 10 hours after I left...
1681. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L is gone, seriously how many times we going to beat a dead horse?


I'll talk about it if I want to...
Quoting bappit:
Just an idle thought ... who would you want to be paired up with during your rookie season?


Easy that would be that would be Sabrina Fein!
Quoting PtownBryan:


Don't you know Rufus? It starts with Mexico and Alex. Between Brownsville and Corpus for Bonnie. Between Corpus and Houston for Colin and so on...everyone gets a turn in the gulf lol j/k!!
And then we start seeing 'em work their way around the FL peninsula and up the east coast.... By November we'll have had a TC hit every state in the ATL basin!!!!

BwaHaHaHaHaaaaaaa...........
Quoting gator23:

you should have gone inland.
I had to leave at the last minute because of issues beyond my control. Decided to go west of the storm instead of the same direction of the storm. It had already began making the turn north when I left for CC.
Quoting Patrap:
Food for thought for the NHC "B" team


Tropical Storm Hermine 1998






95L



you are looking at just a pic and you fail to realize that Hermine originated from a tropical wave, not from a frontal boundary; location may be similar but their development was very different
1686. gator23
Quoting TexasHurricane:


lol...I was actually thinking that the other day..

you gulf centric folk dont realize that the east coast gets hit too...
Quick question about rainfall projections for Houston area. Since Friday, I have driven home twice in flooding rains and wanted to know where to find the projection maps. Im figuring the further south, the better off Houston maybe.
Quoting PtownBryan:


Don't you know Rufus? It starts with Mexico and Alex. Between Brownsville and Corpus for Bonnie. Between Corpus and Houston for Colin and so on...everyone gets a turn in the gulf lol j/k!!

SmileyCentral.com
1689. Patrap
Having met Avila here last November at the Cuban US Hurricane Day Conference in NOLA.,

He is a funny guy and one who knows his stuff.

Quikscat failed the day before and I was lucky enough to have a cool conversation with Him over that.

My Nov 29th 2009 wunderblog on the US Cuban Hurricane Conference
1690. bappit
Quoting Levi32:


Avila or Stewart.


Durn it, forgot to ask why. Sooooo:

And why?
1691. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Avila or Pasch


Agree
Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L has good structure. Reminds me of Erin 2007.




Same here,visible imagery almost done for the day.

Click me to see what I mean!
Quoting gator23:

you gulf centric folk dont realize that the east coast gets hit too...


I realize that.......
Seems a storm forming this close to shore puts the NHC in a tough spot, as they were going to have advanced warnings this year.
The GFDL has it doing a loop!!!
1697. spathy
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L is gone, seriously how many times we going to beat a dead horse?

I would think its all about learning not bashing.
Its still relatively quiet now so we have time to go back and learn.
It is truly interesting stuff.
Quoting RufusBaker:
So does this mean that everything will go towards texas this year?
mayhab it will mayhab it won't
1699. IKE
Quoting sebastianflorida:
That is not what he said, he said opinions on here were mostly entertainment. I agree that a lot are, including mine. Some on here, they know who they are, are knowlegeable, but most just need to pay attention to those folks and post just once in awhile so we know people are on this blog.
I Agree
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Marine Weather Discussion also has a lot of good info.
I like to go over to OPC (Ocean Prediction Center) also for their surface forecast maps that cover the NATL... especially after mid-August they are very useful in showing the "bigger picture" of steering fronts and baroclinic lows that may impact tropical development / steering....
Quoting TexasHurricane:


lol...I was actually thinking that the other day..


I knew I liked you. Lol
1704. Story
Quoting gator23:

you should have gone inland.


Gator: sometimes going inland is just as bad... a lot of people in these parts should have better plans than just evac to San Antonio. It gets flooded in just as bad...
1705. Levi32
Quoting bappit:


Durn it, forgot to ask why. Sooooo:

And why?


Avila would be my preference of the two, because he doesn't seem to take himself too seriously and really appears to love his job. His forecast discussions usually have some great stuff in them.

Stewart because he has guts, and often brings up excellent points in discussions as well.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I knew I liked you. Lol


Glad someone here does... :)
Does anyone have the current coordinates of 96L? Thanks in advance!
1708. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:
With u on this one... he has a fine sense of drama, and possibly even a fine sense of humor... doesn't seem to take himself too seriously...

Drama?

"Therefore give out you are of Epidamnum lest your goods be confiscate."
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Glad someone here does... :)
I like you to.Your not a bad person.
1710. gator23
Quoting Story:


Gator: sometimes going inland is just as bad... a lot of people in these parts should have better plans than just evac to San Antonio. It gets flooded in just as bad...

Its my Florida centric view. We have no choice but to go inland.
1711. Levi32
Quoting txsweetpea:
Does anyone have the current coordinates of 96L? Thanks in advance!


23.5N, 93.8W, as of 0z.
Quoting txsweetpea:
Does anyone have the current coordinates of 96L? Thanks in advance!
00 GMT 07/8/10 23.5N 93.8W 30 1005 Invest
Quoting gator23:

you gulf centric folk dont realize that the east coast gets hit too...


Sorry Gator... I know the east coast gets hit too!
Quoting IKE:


Crown Royal is good stuff....smooth booze.



Got enough to go around. Heck if I run out the liquor store is only 6 miles away!


If you cant, I have one close too.
THANKS
1715. bappit
Quoting IKE:


I'll talk about it if I want to...

95L was a darn interesting system. Lot of opportunities to learn things from it.
Howdy, blog. After having read the comments on this page I assume that 96L is not worth much today? Not one comment was in reference to it except for the models that Pat posted which were empty. lol
Quoting Story:


LOL! I would have stayed myself, but the family was yelling at me to leave (I live in a mobile home)... I was watching the postings here and closely monitoring the NHC and telling them it was going to shift... so why run...

Well, I left with my kids and the blasted cane followed the Texas coast right behind me. I went to Ark to a girlfriend's house, and here came Rita. We were flooded in for days..

and my family called me and asked me why I didn't come back... seems the evac notice was lifted 10 hours after I left...
Funny! My wife and kids left to go to Huntsville area. I had to stay behind shutdown the plant where I work. They got caught in all that traffic and her cell phone went dead and she did not have a charger. I went 32 hours without hearing from her. If I remember correctly we shared a cell phone. I wasn't going to leave the house until I heard from her. By that time it was too late to go north. Hey, Corpus was beautiful. I watched the sunset from Mustang Island, ate at Joe's Crabshack and stayed in an air conditioned hotel.

My wife and kids(5 and 1 at the time) lived on water and snack food and had no AC and power while staying on the Trinity River. Miserable
verdes are coming
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Glad someone here does... :)


Awe. SmileyCentral.com

Lol. Hopefully it won't follow that pattern. I had just told my hubby that when I saw what you typed.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

I think you're brain glitching. In case you want to learn a little about him:

Q & A for NHC - John Cangialosi

Hmmm, I *think* I met him at the Miami boat show last Feb.
1721. Story
Quoting gator23:

Its my Florida centric view. We have no choice but to go inland.


I hear that... We have family in Deland... we are always watching..
1722. JLPR2
Convection is way stronger over the Yucatan than over 96L itself XD

Once again, the warm open waters trump the other factors in development of this system. We saw the same thing during the 2005 season.
1724. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
Food for thought for the NHC "B" team


Tropical Storm Hermine 1998






95L


Hey, Patrap ... sure you didn't get the pictures reversed?
On the tropical weather page they already have winds in association to 96L at 35mph.Also notice the sst have warmed.Sign of a negative nao anyone?
1726. bakers
96L sure is lacking convection. degeneraion is occuring.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
verdes are coming


Long-range GFS is revealing a pattern very conducive for an early Cape Verde storm.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I like you to.Your not a bad person.


Thank you.....
Quoting bappit:

Drama?

"Therefore give out you are of Epidamnum lest your goods be confiscate."
Not The Comedy of Errors!!!! Holy cripes! The blog's literary!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
And then we start seeing 'em work their way around the FL peninsula and up the east coast.... By November we'll have had a TC hit every state in the ATL basin!!!!

BwaHaHaHaHaaaaaaa...........


Wouldn't that be a disaster...and a huge mess!
@ 1007 mb 24N 94 W it's already a depression. 1006 mb's is usually threshold for a tropical storm. Let the games begin!! Watches & warnings. The cone of stupidity should be a large one****
Evening guys, saw that the NHC put 96L at 80% and RECON is investigating it. Any confirmation that TD2 has formed? Or RECON hasn't reached the COC.
1734. Patrap
If one cant see this.

They need a serious browser upgrade.

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
1735. Story
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Funny! My wife and kids left to go to Huntsville area. I had to stay behind shutdown the plant where I work. They got caught in all that traffic and her cell phone went dead and she did not have a charger. I went 32 hours without hearing from her. If I remember correctly we shared a cell phone. I wasn't going to leave the house until I heard from her. By that time it was too late to go north. Hey, Corpus was beautiful. I watched the sunset from Mustang Island, ate at Joe's Crabshack and stayed in an air conditioned hotel.

My wife and kids(5 and 1 at the time) lived on water and snack food and had no AC and power while staying on the Trinity River. Miserable


Ahhh the things memories are made of! LOL
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Awe. SmileyCentral.com

Lol. Hopefully it won't follow that pattern. I had just told my hubby that when I saw what you typed.


yeah, hopefully it won't..... gotta love those smiley faces... :)
1737. IKE
Quoting JLPR2:
Convection is way stronger over the Yucatan than over 96L itself XD



Merida,Mexico at 21N and 89.7W has had rain and TS off and on all day....Link
1738. Patrap
Quoting bappit:

Hey, Patrap ... sure you didn't get the pictures reversed?


Nopa..

LOL

Check out Bloggers DocNDswamps take on 95 in the directory or in my blog.

Hes a guy who Knows his stuff.


Big time

Quoting gator23:

Its my Florida centric view. We have no choice but to go inland.
Too funny! Personally, I like going left or right of the storm and hopefully not have to deal with it inland as well. Preferably to the dry side. I hope everyone doesn't copy my strategy, I like having to deal with less traffic.
Quoting StormW:


That's right where there is some good convection firing.



Great structure,I think we may be seeing TD2 right there.
1741. bappit
Hmmmm, from the bio:

Yes, it is rather ironic that my brother [his twin] and I went to Miami, as we both met our wives here. My (future) wife lived right next door to me in the dorm when I moved in, the first person I talked to when I moved to Miami. And I know this sounds fake but it's real, my brother, his wife, was my wife's roommate. They both lived next door!

That could be interesting. Wonder if he is ever confused with his brother.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
verdes are coming
Cape Verde...and here I was looking for something green :P
1743. gator23
Quoting PtownBryan:


Sorry Gator... I know the east coast gets hit too!

no worries, i know that the majority of the people on this blog are mostly from the gulf area and I think its easy to forget sometimes that peninsular Florida is the most susceptible than most other states.
I know Houston would hate it, and Corpus would too, but I would really be glad if 96L / possible Bonnie went more towards that part of the coast than W towards Brownsville. Despite its disorganization, this is another wet system, and I don't think the Rio Grande valley / tributaries can take too much more...
1746. IKE
Brownsville,TX 248NM radar....

Quoting BahaHurican:
With u on this one... he has a fine sense of drama, and possibly even a fine sense of humor... doesn't seem to take himself too seriously...


You guys sound like potential customers for my next product...NHC trading cards!
Quoting Patrap:
If one cant see this.

They need a serious browser upgrade.

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
could you please post that in braile, I'm blind...
1749. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:


Merida,Mexico at 21N and 89.7W has had rain and TS off and on all day....Link


And their temperature is anomalously low for that area
1750. FLdewey
Quoting gator23:

no worries, i know that the majority of the people on this blog are mostly from the gulf area and I think its easy to forget sometimes that peninsular Florida is the most susceptible than most other states.


I had my fill with four in one year. ;-)
Quoting Patrap:


Nopa..

LOL

Check out Bloggers DocNDswamps take on 95 in the directory or in my blog.

Hes a guy who Knows his stuff.


Big time



according to the NHC 95L was attached to a frontal boundary until 3 hours prior to landfall and and that time when it finally detached it showed poor convection and overall organization. Had 95L detached from the front even 12 hours earlier, it probably would have been classified, but while it was close I think they made the right call

96L is a much different animal, it is fully tropical in nature
Quoting bakers:
96L sure is lacking convection. degeneraion is occuring.


Heavy thunderstorms are still firing up in the outer bands
Quoting gator23:

no worries, i know that the majority of the people on this blog are mostly from the gulf area and I think its easy to forget sometimes that peninsular Florida is the most susceptible than most other states.


yes, it would be great if none of us got hit this year.....but I don't see that happening...considering we have already had 1 Hurricane and whatever 96L becomes...
Quoting Story:


Ahhh the things memories are made of! LOL
Hey, my contingency plan was to go to Nederland (Beaumont area) to stay in a house that a cousin uses on the weekends. That house ended up with 2 feet of water in it, so it all worked out after all.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, hopefully it won't..... gotta love those smiley faces... :)


Lol. Yeah great minds... Well you don't wanna think like me. I'll stop with the smilys b4 I get banned.
1756. USSINS
Quoting Patrap:


Check out Bloggers DocNDswamps take on 95 in the directory or in my blog.

Hes a guy who Knows his stuff.


Big time



Agreed. Here's the link. Post #42.
1757. Patrap
1758. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not The Comedy of Errors!!!! Holy cripes! The blog's literary!!!

Got to deliver the line myself. That's the extent of my career on stage. Odd that Cangialosi has a twin.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I know Houston would hate it, and Corpus would too, but I would really be glad if 96L / possible Bonnie went more towards that part of the coast than W towards Brownsville. Despite its disorganization, this is another wet system, and I don't think the Rio Grande valley / tributaries can take too much more...


Well you all aren't in a major heat wave when temps are skyrocketing 100+. Here in Richmond(va) we haven't seen any rain in 3-4 weeks. The drought index for us is yellow.
Quoting gator23:

no worries, i know that the majority of the people on this blog are mostly from the gulf area and I think its easy to forget sometimes that peninsular Florida is the most susceptible than most other states.
But when they are in the Gulf there is no way out!
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
All visitors remember that all opinions on this blog are from amateur enthusiasts and are not reflective of the NHC. They are therefore highly suspect and for entertainment purposes only!
That's what the kids in my Algebra classes say...
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Post#1593 Hey Story, the funny thing is I evacuated TO Corpus Christi from Galveston during Rita!
At least you fared better than we did -- the powers-that-be insisted we evacuate to Lufkin. When they evacuated Lufkin, we said the heck with it and came back home. Never even lost power at home.
1764. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


That's right where there is some good convection firing.



Yeah and it really needs to get those cloud tops back up there to -60C or better. Alex's cool wake is really doing a number on its convective development.

Time to say goodnight as sunset falls:

1765. gator23
Quoting TexasHurricane:


yes, it would be great if none of us got hit this year.....but I don't see that happening...considering we have already had 1 Hurricane and whatever 96L becomes...

we will all get smacked. its a matter or numbers and time.
1766. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update!

July 7, 2010 - 9:15 PM EDT - 96L To Become A Tropical Depression At Any Time


could become a TD at any time.
Quoting Patrap:
If one cant see this.

They need a serious browser upgrade.

Strange that I always see your graphics just fine but all I see here is a map of the land masses with no model forecast tracks.
Quoting bappit:

Got to deliver the line myself. That's the extent of my career on stage. Odd that Cangialosi has a twin.
I suppose I shouldn't admit it, but that's my FAVE Shakespearean comedy.... the mixed twins plot line is CLASSIC... literally.... lol

Wonder what his brother does that's not wx related....
Quoting IKE:


could become a TD at any time.
and here I have been repeatedly hitting F5, and nothing...
1771. gator23
Quoting gulfbreeze:
But when they are in the Gulf there is no way out!

yup trapped like a rat in a cage.
Quoting IKE:


could become a TD at any time.
Just by listening to the tone of the TWO I'm very sure we will get a TD soon.
1773. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
and here I have been repeatedly hitting F5, and nothing...


LOL!
Quoting TxGrandma:
At least you fared better than we did -- the powers-that-be insisted we evacuate to Lufkin. When they evacuated Lufkin, we said the heck with it and came back home. Never even lost power at home.
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS and MSLP

96L Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop


a surface trof and a front are 2 totally different things
1776. Patrap
The "Squeeze" iz On

haha The tracks finally appeared when I refreshed the page for the third time. Thanks, Pat.
1779. USSINS
Quoting IKE:


could become a TD at any time.



...or not. ;P
1780. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS and MSLP

96L Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop


The MSLP layer is inaccurate, and often is on those loops.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I know Houston would hate it, and Corpus would too, but I would really be glad if 96L / possible Bonnie went more towards that part of the coast than W towards Brownsville. Despite its disorganization, this is another wet system, and I don't think the Rio Grande valley / tributaries can take too much more...

I'm with ya there, Baha...go north young Invest! Times like these I think of the movie Apollo 9.
If enough people hope hard enough, maybe we can change the odds.
Quoting hunkerdown:
and here I have been repeatedly hitting F5, and nothing...


Is RECON investigating 96L at this moment?
1783. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just by listening to the tone of the TWO I'm very sure we will get a TD soon.


I've had days here when I had an 80% chance of rain and it didn't.

I'd have to say TD likely. Just a thought.
1785. bappit
While I was doing graduate work at UM in 2005, I was involved in a project called RAINEX (Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment). It was a multimillion dollar project that involved the University of Miami, University of Washington, NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and several other agencies. I had many jobs with it, but I was the lead forecaster, my first real taste of forecasting. I had to provide briefings every day at 11 AM and give the possibility of tropical cyclone formation. What they really wanted to know was there going to be any rapid intensity changes, because that's what the project was targeting. It put me to the test, the biggest challenge of my professional life up to that point. It was my first taste of hurricane forecasting.

What came next?

Since being in graduate school, I was into numerical modeling. So for the RAINEX project, I was able to conduct a team of models, similar to the GFDL used here at NHC, but custom-made for the project. I would present some of our model simulations during the briefings. But the project only lasted three months, then after that it was all research.


There's a lesson in there Levi. He wanted to do operational meteorology and studied numerical modeling.
1786. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


a surface trof and a front are 2 totally different things


What the ell are you talking about JPhurricane...?

I never stated anywhere about anything other than to SHOW THE IMAGES.

Get a Life .






Quoting tropicfreak:


Well you all aren't in a major heat wave when temps are skyrocketing 100+. Here in Richmond(va) we haven't seen any rain in 3-4 weeks. The drought index for us is yellow.


It's funny how each part of the country is so different. What you described is typical down here in Texas for a summer, but I know for y'all that's not. We are just happy not to be in red or burgandy for the drought index, at the moment.
1788. ssmate
Quoting largeeyes:


You guys sound like potential customers for my next product...NHC trading cards!
I've got a Fat Head of Avila.
Mexico and Texas storms for June & July are normal?
Quoting Patrap:


WTF are you talking about JPhurricane...?

I never stated anywhere about anything other than to SHOW THE IMAGES.

Get a Life .






???
From impact weather: "We think this will be a very active carribean year,in which a handful of the storms may originate from". So far that looks like It's coming to pass......
1792. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
While I was doing graduate work at UM in 2005, I was involved in a project called RAINEX (Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment). It was a multimillion dollar project that involved the University of Miami, University of Washington, NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and several other agencies. I had many jobs with it, but I was the lead forecaster, my first real taste of forecasting. I had to provide briefings every day at 11 AM and give the possibility of tropical cyclone formation. What they really wanted to know was there going to be any rapid intensity changes, because that's what the project was targeting. It put me to the test, the biggest challenge of my professional life up to that point. It was my first taste of hurricane forecasting.

What came next?

Since being in graduate school, I was into numerical modeling. So for the RAINEX project, I was able to conduct a team of models, similar to the GFDL used here at NHC, but custom-made for the project. I would present some of our model simulations during the briefings. But the project only lasted three months, then after that it was all research.


There's a lesson in there Levi. He wanted to do operational meteorology and studied numerical modeling.


Yes I know....it's really smart to do numerical modeling to get into good forecasting positions, but something tells me I won't be too great at putting calculus into computers.
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Once again, the warm open waters trump the other factors in development of this system. We used to see the same thing during the 2005 season.

Exactly what I was think. A bit of deja vu.
1795. Story
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.


Yes, and I am sure it didn't help the refugees from Katrina that were in the areas that were ordered evac'ed for Rita, either.
1796. IKE
Quoting TxMarc71:


WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT??

Think about this logic:
""HMMM ITS 103 outside and I'm 85 years old with a heart condition but since we live in the NE US we dont need a window unit we'll be fine as long as we have our beer and cable TV"

now whats ignorant?? CHOSING to not have an A/C and LETTING yourself die or doing what you have to do to stay healthy reardless of where you live...


I hate to be condescending to you ZOOMIAMI, but its now 2010 and if you can afford to live, you can afford an A/C espically when it is the difference between life and death.

You really need to crawl out from under the rock you've been living under. I'll tell you what, give up your A/C and your Internet, call me next week and well talk about IGNORANT

Link


There's a 50-ish aged lady I know that works in the pharmacy here in Defuniak Springs,FL. She was telling me her electric bill was somewhere around $50 for the month.

She said she uses no AC. Heat index here is over 100 every day just about in the summer. That's crazy.
new blog!!!!!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.


8 1/2 hours to get from League City to Katy. 8 months preg. With a two year old getting sick in the backseat. Will NEVER do that again!!!
1799. Patrap
Seems I can sway the turmoil eh?

pffffth?

Im glad I joined the Corps.


Wiki to the rescue?
1800. gator23
Quoting Patrap:


WTF are you talking about JPhurricane...?

I never stated anywhere about anything other than to SHOW THE IMAGES.

Get a Life .





wow this is rare. Pat breaks character.
Quoting Patrap:


What the ell are you talking about JPhurricane...?

I never stated anywhere about anything other than to SHOW THE IMAGES.

Get a Life .








Ouch...

Bad Day?
Quoting TxGrandma:
At least you fared better than we did -- the powers-that-be insisted we evacuate to Lufkin. When they evacuated Lufkin, we said the heck with it and came back home. Never even lost power at home.


OMG! Like I told the Hubs, I don't care what we are running from I am NOT going through Lufkin again! Lol. We have made at least 20 circuits around that town in 2 whole evacs! I'll never gripe about I-10 again! :)
96L is moving towards Brownsville at a good clip, but the COC is consolidating, and I believe we are about to see a "significant" burst of convection overnight, which surely means a TD if not TS storm by daybreak.

I just am puzzled why the NHC was so bearish yesterday on 96L. I certainly am no expert, but could not see any way that 96L would not at least make TD by landfall.

Oh well, I guess it is easy for me to sit here and 2nd guess, when I have nothing to lose.

96L is rapidly organizing...... and I believe is on the cusp of being classified.

Just thinking back about the WU glory days! Hard to believe I have been coming to this blog for over 5 years! Damn, we are all getting old! LOL

1804. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Happy?

July 7, 2010 - 9:15 PM EDT - 96L Could Become A Tropical Depression At Any Time

Lol.


LOL...just trying to help you...not criticizing....
Quoting gator23:

no worries, i know that the majority of the people on this blog are mostly from the gulf area and I think its easy to forget sometimes that peninsular Florida is the most susceptible than most other states.


Cool. Yea, well, it sticks out there just asking for it! I remember back about 10 years ago there was a survey and it asked which state you thought had been hit by more tropical cyclones than any other. I picked Florida of course, but it was actually Texas! I think that changed since then, especially in the last decade, but I think Texas and Florida are close.
1806. bappit
Quoting Chicklit:

I'm with ya there, Baha...go north young Invest! Times like these I think of the movie Apollo 9.
If enough people hope hard enough, maybe we can change the odds.

Now wait a cotton pickin' minute. We're under flash flood watches through tomorrow already. Had lots of 10 inch amounts with the onshore flow between Alex and the cool front last week.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
On the tropical weather page they already have winds in association to 96L at 35mph.Also notice the sst have warmed.Sign of a negative nao anyone?


Definitely. We should see some refiring of convection near the center soon.
1808. gator23
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Mexico and Texas storms for June & July are normal?

Late June and early July climatology suggests Texas and Louisiana yes.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...just trying to help you...not criticizing....
Don't worry bout' it. Lol. Anyways I like the new title.
1810. Grothar
Just testing my new image maker.

1811. Patrap
My day been great.

Washed the cars.

Finished a paper

Did the weedwacking..and clear coated my Toes all in 3 hours.

Brraaaha.ha,..ha
1812. sarepa
New Blog
NEW BLOG!
New Blog...just in case no one said...
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well you all aren't in a major heat wave when temps are skyrocketing 100+. Here in Richmond(va) we haven't seen any rain in 3-4 weeks. The drought index for us is yellow.


Been there done that here in Texas just a few yrs ago! Hope yall get some rain real soon!
Quoting Grothar:
Just testing my new image maker.

nothing there...
Looking at the visible loop, it looks like 96L is starting to make a curve more towards the N/NNW. Anybody else see this??
1818. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:


There's a 50-ish aged lady I know that works in the pharmacy here in Defuniak Springs,FL. She was telling me her electric bill was somewhere around $50 for the month.

She said she uses no AC. Heat index here is over 100 every day just about in the summer. That's crazy.


I get heat index of 100 here during the summer and during the day there is no such thing as A/C in my house, electricity is too expensive nowadays, so we only use A/C to sleep at night, yet my grandma(87) refuses to use an A/C, never in her life she has slept with one so somehow she sleeps fine with a simple fan. :\
A/C isn't a necessity, but it sure makes life easier and happier. XD
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.

There have been many a minor cluster efforts which convince folks like my 84-year-old mother (who lives across the street, 2 doors down), and the 94-year-old widow (across the street), that they are not leaving in a hurricane. That leaves moi to worry about them when they stay (cuz I ain't leavin' either). I have too many animules around here to even think about getting off this barrier island situated on the east central coast of florida. Besides, my house is built like a fortress, on a dune, with concrete block downstairs and then another 30 feet up...etc., etc. So yeah, I'm stayin' for the duration. The problem is, they evacuate the island at the threat of a hurricane and then won't let us back on, so we've got lots of company over here in 2010. Should be interesting to say the least. Imagine I'll be barbecuing what's in my refrigerator kept cold by my generator (since neither of these ladies have one). And keeping them in water with my multitude of 5-gallon jugs I keep around for myself and my big fish tank. Anyway, we'll make it.
1820. gator23
Quoting Patrap:
My day been great.

Washed the cars.

Finished a paper

Did the weedwacking..and clear coated my Toes all in 3 hours.

Brraaaha.ha,..ha

Pat I feel like your shrouded in mystery. Are you in school?
People have to understand that architecture in different parts of the country play a part in dealing with unusual weather conditions. Most buildings in the northeast were built to deal with severe winters, not treacherous summers.

If you live in an interior apartment, how is an AC unit going to help if you don't have a window.
Storm why is 96l moving toward S/Texas?
NEW BLOG!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NEW BLOG!
..and "NEW BLOG" means, go up to the "tropical & hurricane" link at the top and the go to Dr. Master's blog on the right and click on the "read this blog entry". Thats where all the people are.
I'm inclined to believe we have a Tropical Depression out of 96L. By tomorrow morning this thing could become Bonnie, I'd think the NHC will initiate advisories starting around 11PM. Satellite presentation has become a lot better and overall the cloud pattern of 96L is becoming very well organized. Only problem I see is some dry air and cooler waters up welled during Alex.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.


The Rita evac is what caused so many to stay during Ike, that and they figured a cat 2 was no big deal because they had been through it before. I came down from Oklahoma(went to school there) to help my family evacuate. Lord. Have. Mercy. We left the first time, took 5 hours to go 40 miles. Went home, said we will leave later that night. 16 hours after leaving we made it to Norman, Oklahoma.
1827. gator23
the blog died. Let me see if I can revive it. Just think in one month we will have so many storms we begin ignoring some. Discuss
1828. gator23
Quoting gator23:
the blog died. Let me see if I can revive it. Just think in one month we will have so many storms we begin ignoring some. Discuss

wow. thud.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
People have to understand that architecture in different parts of the country play a part in dealing with unusual weather conditions. Most buildings in the northeast were built to deal with severe winters, not treacherous summers.

If you live in an interior apartment, how is an AC unit going to help if you don't have a window.


Are you serious?? ... There are many stand alone models that are available and affordable that work without a window..

Also, I lived in the N.E. for several years and while many of the structures are very old, they ALL had A/C..

Bottom line, its summer time in the U.S. its going to get hot...

Would you drive/ride in an automobile without wearing your seatblet?? NO..

Would you consider not boarding up your windows in the face of a major hurricane?? NO

Would you jump out of an airplane with no parachute?? NO

Would you go scuba diving without any O2? NO

Then why would anyone (in the contental U.S.) think it would simply be OKAY to subject themsleves to triple digit heat with no A/C??
Whoa. Bonnie is formed.
Did anyone notice the recent blowup of rock solid convection just to the east of Bonnie?
Within 2 wks, waited for 95L to do it's thing, here in Cozumel, well a 11" of rain over 2 days & some strongish winds. Then along came 96L. Since Sunday, 27.3" of rain from it. I'm glad that it's moved on across the Yucatan Peninsula. 20.30" of rain yesterday alone, though no wind.
I feel for the folks in NE Mexico and S TX. Monterrey took a beating, appears they might be in line for another. With 3M residents it must be nightmarish.
There you go, 96L now TD2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Whoa. Bonnie is formed.


Bonnie has not formed.
1835. Dakster
Bonnie is supposed to form sometime before landfall though!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
That Rita evacuation was one big cluster-you-know-what! Blame it all on Katrina! Too fresh in everyone's minds. Scared the hell out of a lot of people.


The Rita evacuation turned into a disaster when the idiot mayor of Houston (Bill White) ordered the evacuation of the city BEFORE the coastal areas could evacuate. He said we won't have a Katrina here. No we'll have 36 hours of stranded motorist instead. Sad thing is only a few areas by the ship channel, Clear Lake and LaPorte needed to evacuate.
Temp reached 104 unofficially in Lumberton, TX today with 37% RH. Wind has quartered back to the south and some thunderstorms are starting to form in SE Texas.