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The nine billion-dollar weather disasters of 2011 (so far); Invest 90L rises again

By: Angela Fritz 4:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2011

It's been an unprecedented year for weather disasters in the United States, with the dangerous portion of hurricane season still to come. We've already seen nine billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2011. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) June disaster report estimates that, through May, 2011 is the costliest year since they began tracking billion-dollar disasters in 1980. The cost of the disasters through May could be as high as $32 billion, compared to a typical year-to-date cost of $6 billion. 2011 to-date now ties the entire year of 2008 for the most billion-dollar weather disasters in one year. Of course, this number could go up if we see some hurricane landfalls this year.

Here are NCDC's estimates of the top-end damages from 2011's billion-dollar weather disasters so far:



Missouri River Flooding
Snowfall was abnormally heavy in the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Wyoming this past winter (over 200% of average), and record rains fell over the Upper Midwest this Spring, the effects of which continue to be felt along the Missouri River. In May, the Army Corps of engineers began releasing a record amount of water through the dams above Gavins Point, including the Garrison Dam in Central North Dakota. The flooding has kept many bridges closed, making it impossible to cross the river for a hundred miles at a time in some places.

Texas Drought & Wildfires
Texas is in the midst of one of the worst droughts of its history. As of June 28, 2011, 91% of Texas was in extreme or greater drought, and 47% of the state was in an "exceptional drought," the most severe category. In April and May of 2011, wildfires burned over 3 million acres across the state. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, has declared a State of Disaster every month since December 2010. As of June 16, NCDC estimates that the drought and fires in Texas have cost $3.0 billion—an amount that is likely to rise as the event continues.

Mississippi River Flooding
Between the spring snow-melt and two storms that dumped massive amounts of rain in the Mississippi watershed in April, the Mississippi was in for a flood of record proportions. The river began to bulge by the beginning of May, flooding every state from Illinois to Louisiana and Mississippi. A federal disaster was declared by the President in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. In an effort to save Baton Rouge and New Orleans, Louisiana, the Army Corps of Engineers opened the Morganza Spillway on May 14, which flooded 4,600 square miles of Louisiana. The NCDC estimates $4 billion in damages from this flood, although the final amount might not be fully realized yet.

Mississippi River Flood 2011 Memphis
An overflowing Mississippi River at Memphis, Tennessee on May 8, 2011.

Midwest/Southeast Tornado Outbreak (May 22-27)
This six-day tornado outbreak killed approximately 180 people, and includes the EF-5 tornadoes that rolled through Joplin, Missouri on May 22, and El Reno, Oklahoma on May 24. Tornadoes in this storm were spawned from central Texas to the Upper Midwest. The whole event is estimated to have done $7 billion in damages.

2011 Super Outbreak (April 25-30)
Most of the tornadoes spawned in this storm happened in the Southeast, from Mississippi to Virginia, though a total of 334 tornadoes have been confirmed in 21 states from Texas to New York. April 27th, in particular, was a notably destructive and deadly day, as 188 tornadoes touched down in the Southeast, four of which were rated EF-5. The NCDC estimates that the Super Outbreak resulted in at least $5.5 billion in damages.

Mississippi River Flood 2011 Memphis
Just a portion of the aftermath from the EF-4 tornado that devastated Tuscaloosa, Alabama
on April 27, 2011. Image credit: Wikipedia

Midwest/Southeast Tornado Outbreak (April 14-16)
This storm generated at least 200 tornadoes across 16 states in mid-April, leading to 38 deaths. The system moved quickly from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, where the most notable tornado of the outbreak occurred near Raleigh, North Carolina. This tornado was rain-wrapped as it headed in the direction of Raleigh, and was later rated an EF-3. The NCDC estimates that this outbreak resulted in $2 billion in damages.

Southeast/Midwest Severe Storms (April 8-11)
Tornadoes were reported in Virginia and Iowa from April 8-11. A significant day of severe weather occurred on April 9th, as a powerful storm over the Upper Midwest spawned tornadoes in Iowa. The strongest of these tornadoes was the huge, 3/4 mile-wide tornado that plowed through the tiny town of Mapleton, Iowa on Saturday evening, leaving a trail of destruction 3.5 miles long. The tornado, preliminarily rated as an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds, flattened 20% of the town of 1200 residents and damaged half of the buildings. The NCDC estimates that this weekend of severe weather caused $2.2 billion in damages.

Midwest/Southeast Severe Storms (April 4-5)
Damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes were spawned by a storm that pushed through the central U.S. in early April. Power outages were extensive across the southern and eastern U.S., and many people were killed by falling trees and branches. Tornadoes touched down in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi. 1,318 reports of damaging wind were submitted to local Weather Service offices on April 4th alone. The NCDC estimates that this tornado and wind event caused $2 billion in damages.

Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011
This storm stretched from northeast Mexico to Canada, but is most memorable for its effect on Chicago, where 1-2 feet of snow fell, combined with winds over 60 mph which led to blizzard conditions. 21.2 inches of snow fell at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, making it the third largest snowfall total in Chicago history. Blizzard conditions were reported in many other large cities during the storm's lifetime, including Oklahoma City, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, and New York. This storm also brought ice and wintry mix as far south as Albuquerque, Dallas, and Houston. At least 36 deaths were caused by this storm, most of which were vehicle-related. NCDC estimates this storm did at least $3.9 billion in damage.

Chicago Blizzard 2011
The Windy City on February 1, 2011 during the Groundhog Day Blizzard.

NHC Invest 90L, Born Again

Invest 90L spiked in thunderstorm activity and circulation yesterday, leading NHC to re-invest the system. 90L is still south of Cuba moving ever-so-slowly to the west. While low level (850mb) circulation has increased since yesterday morning, the system is tilted southeast with height. This is likely due to the westerly wind shear it's facing right now. As the system moves into the Gulf, shear will become more favorable (if there's shear present, easterly is better than westerly). The wave is still moist and moisture is expected to remain high (4 to 5.5 g/kg specific humidity) as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.



Again this morning, none of the models are suggesting meaningful development of Invest 90L. However, the GFS (finally) has come around to resolving the circulation at all. Dr. Rob Carver and I spoke this morning, and we came to the conclusion that the lack of observations in this region, combined with the small size of the system, is causing the models to not have the best handle on the situation. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for 18z (2pm EDT) tomorrow, after which we could see the models starting to favor development again. Today the Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I agree with that, but I also think that beyond 48 hours this wave is going to have a better shot at developing a closed circulation at the surface.

Angela

Climate Change Drought Flood Fire Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Beachshell:
This wave appears to be heading steadily west. If this continues, the rugged terrain of the Yucatan may retard any further development of 90L.

The Northern Yucatan is flat.
2502. ackee
I think that 90L will be upgraded to DON ITS already a TD in my opinon
Quoting Squid28:
Morning all, now for the antecdotal evidence....

I just walked into my lab to find probably a couple thousand ants trying to take up residence.... (cue the doom background music). Location upper Galveston bay
Ut oh....

I believe that pre-Don's #1 analog is claudette from '03. any thoughts?
Quoting Squid28:
Morning all, now for the antecdotal evidence....

I just walked into my lab to find probably a couple thousand ants trying to take up residence.... (cue the doom background music). Location upper Galveston bay


I'm kind of torn on the ant thing. But I have a recent story. When we were headed out the door to evac from Gustav we had to stop and kill a ton of ants in the kitchen. Well Gustav missed. But then Ike didn't a few days later. So it may be a sign? ;)
Quoting HCW:


Even a Tropical Storm can be a major problem and kill people. Allison
In this instance, TS going into TX would actually be a good thing. Mostly the problem with TS's is people are not prepared for the massive precipitation; in this instance the problem of flooding might actually be exacerbated by the drought conditions. Nevertheless, a TS that brings rain and penetrates into the Central TX area with that rain would be pretty helpful at this point.
Is it my imagination or is 90L "mooning" us? I'm so offended!
Goog Morning all

I see a red circle but no Don (yet), Kinda wish it would do a U and head to NW then NE Fl. We are way to dry.

We have been gettin a few afternoon pop up storms.

Is it intrest or addaction if you check in here BEFORE your coffee.....
Quoting WxLogic:


Would not be surprised if a new LLC would attempt to develop further SE closer to the deep convection, but definitely agree with that current LLC fix.


Don't see any evidence on Cancun Radar to the SE, appears storms in that area are moving in a northly direction.
Quoting Autistic2:
Goog Morning all

I see a red circle but no Don (yet), Kinda wish it would do a U and head to NW then NE Fl. We are way to dry.

We have been gettin a few afternoon pop up storms.

Is it intrest or addaction if you check in here BEFORE your coffee.....
Both?

LOL

I admit to bringing the blog up before pouring that first cup... lol
Radar from western tip of Cuba:Link
2512. hydrus
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm kind of torn on the ant thing. But I have a recent story. When we were headed out the door to evac from Gustav we had to stop and kill a ton of ants in the kitchen. Well Gustav missed. But then Ike didn't a few days later. So it may be a sign? ;)
This is interesting...Link
90L Not so stacked. Blobby #2 is the MLC

850MB


500MB
Is 90L a TD now?
Just saw my HH neighbor leave.... wonder what they are up to today?

Might be on their way to fly.

:)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

The Northern Yucatan is flat.


The only thing the Yucatan is going to do is slow this thing down even more. Personally this I believe this system is much too organized at this point for it NOT to be serious threat for where ever it goes. Most shear is expected to be is 10 knots or less along its projected path over an area that is HISTORICAL known for aiding cyclone development due to its geographic composition, oh and that area is loaded with TCHP. Texas and Mexico need the rain, more so in Texas, but we need something to inhibit storm a bit to keep it from RI. Once it gets any type of CDO I don't see anything stopping it from doing what it wants to in term of its intensity protential.
Quoting ITCZmike:
Just saw my HH neighbor leave.... wonder what they are up to today?

Might be on their way to fly.

:)

I thimk that would be the right time to leave sence there flight is at 11:30.
Quoting hydrus:
This is interesting...Link


That is neat. Thanks! :)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
90L Not so stacked. Blobby #2 is the MLC

850MB


500MB


Now see, THIS I understand! Lol. :)

The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3-15 days) Weather Forecasts





Link
2523. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't see any evidence on Cancun Radar to the SE, appears storms in that area are moving in a northly direction.


It looks so weak, but quite interested to see that HH departing in ~2:23HR.
2524. Squid28
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm kind of torn on the ant thing. But I have a recent story. When we were headed out the door to evac from Gustav we had to stop and kill a ton of ants in the kitchen. Well Gustav missed. But then Ike didn't a few days later. So it may be a sign? ;)


Lets hope these are a new version of crazy ants, and not a real sign of what is to come. I am telling myself this, otherwise I would be tempted to go and find a quiet corner to curl up in the fetal position for the next several days. If you could have PTSD from a hurricane, I would have to say it is trying to boldly assert itself with my psyche right now.
T numbers are 1.5/25kts from SAB and 2.0/30kts from TAFB.
Quoting hydrus:
This is interesting...Link


That is much lower than TS pressure
Latest 12z runs. Fan out from LA to MX. Link
2528. MahFL
That model has 90L taking a hard turn NW. I can't see that happening.
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
21.05N/85.09W


Cancun, weak WSW wind


Wind from the WSW (240 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

I thimk that would be the right time to leave sence there flight is at 11:30.


I had just woken up when I saw him leave. Didn't even realize 90L was a factor anymore. Thought it was gone. Now I see what's up. Weird, woke up with a feeling we would be seeing some tropical activity soon. Not sure if 90 L is it but my gut tells me it's coming.... Could be that PTSD someone mentioned in an earlier post. I have it pretty bad post Katrina.
If the high over south-central US moves eastward as predicted and the western edge will be weaker as quoted from Impact Weather emails to my refinery (Port Arthur, TX), then according to them, the northwest turn will occur. Question is.....when will the turn start and just how hard will it be.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
is anyone else concerned that we are going to be dealing with a HURRICANE DON and not Tropical Storm DON before it makes landfall?

Sure we are. I live far enough inland that hurricane winds are unlikely but we certainly need a nice wet tropical system to break the drought here in S/ SW Texas. I also work for FEMA so I'm not anxious to see a hurricane along the Texas coast. We have certainly had our share over the last five or six years. Even Alex last year, which came ashore in Mexico caused severe flooding along the Rio Grande. We had recovery centers from Del Rio to Brownsville last summer.
I'm rooting for rain, but no hurricane! Enough rain to break the drought is likely to cause flooding issues so its certainly a toss up, wishing for rain, not too much and no hurricane but enough to help our lack of water issues!
XOXO
Quoting Squid28:


Lets hope these are a new version of crazy ants, and not a real sign of what is to come. I am telling myself this, otherwise I would be tempted to go and find a quiet corner to curl up in the fetal position for the next several days. If you could have PTSD from a hurricane, I would have to say it is trying to boldly assert itself with my psyche right now.
LOL... before you go that far, keep in mind that ant prognostication does not have strength vectors included... it just tells u something's coming. So you may see the gentle TS of your dreams...
Quoting Squid28:


Lets hope these are a new version of crazy ants, and not a real sign of what is to come. I am telling myself this, otherwise I would be tempted to go and find a quiet corner to curl up in the fetal position for the next several days. If you could have PTSD from a hurricane, I would have to say it is trying to boldly assert itself with my psyche right now.


Awe. I'm sorry. Believe me you're not alone in this feeling. Hope they were just searching for the a.c.
2537. kwgirl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm kind of torn on the ant thing. But I have a recent story. When we were headed out the door to evac from Gustav we had to stop and kill a ton of ants in the kitchen. Well Gustav missed. But then Ike didn't a few days later. So it may be a sign? ;)
Good morning all. I hate to throw cold water on the hot topic of ants and predicting a storm, but have you thought that they are inside looking for water? Even ants need to drink. I find they come into the house looking for water during drought or dry season down here in the Keys. I have seen them ring a water bowl right at the edge of the convective lens. Maybe they are telling you there is a drought!
Quoting BiloxiGirl:


I had just woken up when I saw him leave. Didn't even realize 90L was a factor anymore. Thought it was gone. Now I see what's up. Weird, woke up with a feeling we would be seeing some tropical activity soon. Not sure if 90 L is it but my gut tells me it's coming.... Could be that PTSD someone mentioned in an earlier post. I have it pretty bad post Katrina.


He could be just going to work. HH's still have to report to duty when there is no possible weather problems.
2540. Mucinex
I don't remember what the ants were doing before Andrew.
But, I did wake up in the middle of the night on Aug.23 and I got this creepy feeling that something was not right. It took a couple of minutes, but then it finally occurred to me that it was completely silent outside. Absolutely no crickets(which we had a tons of) or anything else. I've notice this happen before other storms but, never to the extent before Andrew.

With lobster mini-season today, I kinda wonder if we'll see any reports of changes in lobster behavior.
Just saw they are contemplating a National Hurricane Museum in Lake Charles, Lousiana. It will depend on whether the people vote for it. Building plans looked impressive.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
732 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
&&
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUING TO RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF...KEEPING OUR REGION UNDER A LIGHT S TO SE
FLOW. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD N AND W TODAY. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOISTURE RICH AIR COUPLED WITH AN E-W ELONGATED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRI INTO EARLY SAT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. NHC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAVING A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DISTURBANCE MOVING WNW OR NW TOWARDS THE NW GULF. FOR THE FORECAST...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS (50%) FOR FRI
& FRI NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY SAT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES FURTHER W.
DML


I've got 14.5" of rain in my yard since 06/15. The Great Southeast Texas Drought is O-V-E-R at my house. I don't need a 'cane on top of it. Interestingly enough, my neighbor's house across the street caught fire due to a LTG bolt from one of our now all-too-numerous TS' about two weeks ago. It's probably going to be a total loss. I'm sure he'll not be wishing for anything to come along and take out his temporary quarters too. Does anyone have any thoughts on how the High will affect steering of this system vis a' vis the forecast wind patterns? Thanks.
Quoting Autistic2:


That is much lower than TS pressure
Low end cat2. Thing is for a short timm it sticks at 993MB for a short time, i think it could get stronger in the time it keeps it at 993mb.
2544. hydrus
Near Tortugas...
Station PLSF1
NDBC
Location: 24.693N 82.773W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 27 Jul 2011 13:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 18.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in
Air Temperature: 84.6 F
2545. Squid28
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... before you go that far, keep in mind that ant prognostication does not have strength vectors included... it just tells u something's coming. So you may see the gentle TS of your dreams...
Strength is indicated by the ants suddenley dissappearing, and then you realize they have all climbed to a level above your head on the wall.......
2546. BDAwx
Quoting Mucinex:
I don't remember what the ants were doing before Andrew.
But, I did wake up in the middle of the night on Aug.23 and I got this creepy feeling that something was not right. It took a couple of minutes, but then it finally occurred to me that it was completely silent outside. Absolutely no crickets(which we had a tons of) or anything else. I've notice this happen before other storms but, never to the extent before Andrew.

With lobster mini-season today, I kinda wonder if we'll see any reports of changes in lobster behavior.


Just before a really wet thunderstorm in Bermuda all the whistling frogs come out and make all this noise no matter what time of day it is. :)
If the wind is going to pick up the island's flock of 30 crows flies higher in the sky than it normally does.
Quoting synthvol:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
732 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
&&
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUING TO RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF...KEEPING OUR REGION UNDER A LIGHT S TO SE
FLOW. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD N AND W TODAY. THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THIS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE THE COMBINATION OF VERY MOISTURE RICH AIR COUPLED WITH AN E-W ELONGATED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRI INTO EARLY SAT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. NHC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAVING A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DISTURBANCE MOVING WNW OR NW TOWARDS THE NW GULF. FOR THE FORECAST...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS (50%) FOR FRI
& FRI NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY SAT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES FURTHER W.
DML


I've got 14.5" of rain in my yard since 06/15. The Great Southeast Texas Drought is O-V-E-R at my house. I don't need a 'cane on top of it. Interestingly enough, my neighbor's house across the street caught fire due to a LTG bolt from one of our now all-too-numerous TS' about two weeks ago. It's probably going to be a total loss. I'm sure he'll not be wishing for anything to come along and take out his temporary quarters too. Does anyone have any thoughts on how the High will affect steering of this system vis a' vis the forecast wind patterns? Thanks.


WOW! I've only gotten traces of rain. Not over yet here. Don't mean I want a hurricane though.
I see there is a TCFA for 90L. NHC will undoubtedly wait until recon is in before classification.
Was killing more fire ants yesterday evening, wiped out thousands that were in the black mulch, then a new colony went up in the pot plant in the same location and had to kill thousands more, the queens with the wings were all coming out and took care of them...
Has anyone posted this?
Looks like we could have TD/TS Don soon.

Good morning!

90L definitely has continued to organize. Could even be a TD atm.

When are the HH going to investigate it?
ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 110727060000
2011072706
21.1 274.7
24.0 270.0
100
21.1 274.8
270730
1107270730
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 270930
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.1N 85.3W TO 24.0N 90.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
21.1N 85.3W.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15KTS. AT 27/0600Z, INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 125NM EAST
OF CANCUN, MEXICO. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD AN AREA OF WEAKER SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 84 TO 88 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 280930Z.//
9011072106 118N 468W 20
9011072112 125N 480W 20
9011072118 130N 495W 20
9011072200 133N 511W 20
9011072206 136N 528W 20
9011072212 138N 546W 20
9011072218 141N 564W 20
9011072300 144N 582W 25
9011072306 148N 599W 25
9011072312 153N 618W 25
9011072318 157N 639W 25
9011072400 161N 662W 25
9011072406 168N 680W 25
9011072412 174N 701W 25
9011072418 178N 721W 25
9011072500 181N 738W 25
9011072506 184N 755W 25
9011072512 186N 770W 25
9011072518 189N 785W 25
9011072600 191N 798W 25
9011072606 197N 814W 25
9011072612 202N 824W 25
9011072618 208N 834W 25
9011072700 210N 844W 25
9011072706 211N 852W 25

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Ya beat me Keeper, I tried to post it from the other navy site but it wouldn't link. The Main Navy site is slow here.
2555. Ninj4
How do I change the setting so I can see everyone's posts and not the posts that seem arbitrarily hidden? Thanks!
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning!

90L defiantly has continued to organize. Could even be a TD atm.

When are the HH going to investigate it?


1530Z today. 1130 EDT.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Ya beat me Keeper, I tried to post it from the other navy site but it wouldn't link. The Main Navy site is slow here.
I HAD ALREADY POSTED IT AT 8 15 AM LOCAL TIME JUST A REPOST
This could get scary for a lot of ppl.
I'm assuming defiantly is really definitely?? 90L is not being particularly defiant this a.m. .... not much to defy by comparison w/ previous conditions.
Once this thing pulls away from the Yucatan and Cuba it shall blossom into something...
90L has made a clean entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. And if you had to pick a place for landfall, the KingRanch area is probably the least populated on the entire US portion of the Gulf coastline.
21.0n84.4w, 21.1n85.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12pmGMT ATCF
21.1n84.5w, 21.4n85.6w, 21.9n86.5w are now the most recent positions

Copy&paste 18.6n77.0w, 18.9n78.5w, 19.1n79.8w, 19.7n81.4w, 20.2n82.4w-20.8n83.4w, 20.8n83.4w-21.1n84.5w, 21.1n84.5w-21.4n85.6w, 21.4n85.6w-21.9n86.5w, 21.4n85.6w-ikg, gpt into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
500mb vorticity is well off to the east for 90L ... having trouble getting itself into the upper reaches of the atmosphere.

Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. I hate to throw cold water on the hot topic of ants and predicting a storm, but have you thought that they are inside looking for water? Even ants need to drink. I find they come into the house looking for water during drought or dry season down here in the Keys. I have seen them ring a water bowl right at the edge of the convective lens. Maybe they are telling you there is a drought!



I have to agree with you 100%. I am in west central LA, we have been under an extreme drought and the ants have been worse this summer than ever. Now that we have had a couple of days with pop up showers in the afternoon I seem to be ant free!! (thank goodness)
Quoting Ninj4:
How do I change the setting so I can see everyone's posts and not the posts that seem arbitrarily hidden? Thanks!


Up top, your username select "My Blog", on right side of new page select "Edit Profile" then set "Comments" to Show All. Update Profile at bottom.
2565. Squid28
Quoting Mucinex:
I don't remember what the ants were doing before Andrew.
But, I did wake up in the middle of the night on Aug.23 and I got this creepy feeling that something was not right. It took a couple of minutes, but then it finally occurred to me that it was completely silent outside. Absolutely no crickets(which we had a tons of) or anything else. I've notice this happen before other storms but, never to the extent before Andrew.

With lobster mini-season today, I kinda wonder if we'll see any reports of changes in lobster behavior.


When you notice the silence, it is a very eerie feeling. I always seem to remember to stop and look for gulls, and when I realize that both they and the brown pelicans have dissappeared (never in short supply around here) I get very worried. Think I will start looking for them today...
2566. Grothar
Quoting Ninj4:
How do I change the setting so I can see everyone's posts and not the posts that seem arbitrarily hidden? Thanks!
Change your filter setting to [Show All].
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Now see, THIS I understand! Lol. :)



Puts the satellite view in perspective doesn't it?

Does anyone know what time the Hurricane Hunters are flying into this system? Is it 2pm eastern?
On-topic post:

I think we may get designation at 11EST. 90L looks great.

Lots of low pressure over the northern Gulf, so will be interesting to see what kind of steering influences pre-Don, as it develops stronger.
Quoting aspectre:
90L has made a clean entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. And if ya had to pick a place for landfall, the King'sRanch area is probably the least populated on the entire US portion of the Gulf coastline.
21.0n84.4w, 21.1n85.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for the 12pmGMT ATCF
21.1n84.5w, 21.4n85.6w, 21.9n86.5w are now the most recent positions

Copy&paste 18.6n77.0w, 18.9n78.5w, 19.1n79.8w, 19.7n81.4w, 20.2n82.4w-20.8n83.4w, 20.8n83.4w-21.1n84.5w, 21.1n84.5w-21.4n85.6w, 21.4n85.6w-21.9n86.5w, 21.4n85.6w-ikg, gpt into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

that's not very nice! (unless it's just some rain that we need.
Looks like the owl at Hooters

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm assuming defiantly is really definitely?? 90L is not being particularly defiant this a.m. .... not much to defy by comparison w/ previous conditions.

Fixed. I ment definitely.
Any surface coc is apparently just to the ne of the tip of the Yucatan,its doubled in size as expected,TS don when the hh go out the, sheered to east,the LLC is already in the gom!!!SHOW TIME Houston to lake Charles this is your TC,should eeexpect a hurricane by Friday at your door step imo
OTP:

Current steering regime suggests a significant northerly component to 90L

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I HAD ALREADY POSTED IT AT 8 15 AM LOCAL TIME JUST A REPOST

Well, I wasn;t here then.
Quoting Ameister12:

Fixed. I ment definitely.
Lol... I thought 4 a minute u were getting all poetical... How u doing? Haven't seen u in the blog a lot of late...
Quoting NotCircumventing:
On-topic post:

I think we may get designation at 11EST. 90L looks great.

Lots of low pressure over the northern Gulf, so will be interesting to see what kind of steering influences pre-Don, as it develops stronger.


We will not a designation until the HH get in there. NHC has waited this long, they will now wait until they get a visual confirmation of a closed circulation. Expect TD or maybe even TS Don at 5 PM.
Quoting weatherman566:
Does anyone know what time the Hurricane Hunters are flying into this system? Is it 2pm eastern?


Leave at 1130 Eastern. And read the other comments before you ask something, it's been asked and answered several times this morning.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
OTP:

Current steering regime suggests a significant northerly component to 90L



It does however, once 90L is sub 1000mb the Conus ridge comes into play. Assuming 90L strengthens, It will be a matter of what the trough in the central plains does with this ridge.

Today's going to be very fast pace..
My ants were very active yesterday, but the storm went South and fizzled here. I think they can feel the vibration of the thunder, and it gets them all going.

The rumbling went on for 1/2 an hour. We've had more thunderstorms in the past two months than I can remember in a very long time, and it's fascinating how the sound of thunder reverberates so greatly over the ocean. Many times I've seen two storm cells on either side of our land mass, and it's a site to behold.

The Cape of Cod
2584. kwgirl
Quoting Squid28:


When you notice the silence, it is a very eerie feeling. I always seem to remember to stop and look for gulls, and when I realize that both they and the brown pelicans have dissappeared (never in short supply around here) I get very worried. Think I will start looking for them today...
Yes, you are correct in watching the birds. That is the one thing I notice when there is a storm approaching. The birds know way ahead of time. The sea birds, anyway. I saw a mockingbird hanging onto the top of a gate once during a storm and he suddenly got blown off. Thank goodness it was only a small storm. It is amazing how noticing the habits of wildlife can tell you something. And we can't leave out the aching joints (and surgical scars)we get when a low pressure system is approaching. I have weather toes, and they have been fine so far. So we aren't getting this storm, which is evident by the radar. LOL.
ATM, central TX seems the most likely landfall point in my opinion.
Quoting KennyNebraska:
The current water vapor loop of the GoM is a good indicator of what is ahead today and tomorrow for 90L.

The ridge that is moving over the heartland towards the Carolinas has been acting on 90L to slow its forward speed. The ridge will continue to affect 90Ls forward speed well into tomorrow, as the ridge itself is moving slowly. Once the ridge arrives in the Carolinas and 90L gets caught up into the western periphery of the ridge, its speed will increase towards landfall. Expect 90L to be clipping along at a rate of about 14 mph at that time, but as stated, that will not be until Friday or Saturday.

Regarding 90Ls future intensity, the water vapor loop clearly shows 90L's areas of convection beginning to spread out. Since 90L has slowed, the dry air to its NW does not appear to be an inhibiting factor for today. And of course, 90L is over some very hot water.

90L will become a tropical cyclone today. It may surprise us with a burst of rapid intensification, also.

It could easily be a Cat 1 hurricane on Thursday. It will then be up to the higher shear component along the Gulf Coast to keep a lid on this storm. If the shear weakens (and models are predicting a weakened area of shear in the projected path of this storm,) then 90L (Don) could intensify into a Cat 2 or even Cat 3 tropical cyclone before landfall.

Quoting Pensa2woodtx:
I guess Don is coming to see Gov. Perry at Relient stadium.
Well, they are there to pray for water?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
ATM, central TX seems the most likely landfall point in my opinion.


That is what NHC is currently thinking, based on the latest SHIPS,
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leave at 1130 Eastern. And read the other comments before you ask something, it's been asked and answered several times this morning.


My apologies for not trying to read 20-30 pages of blog posts. I'm in a hurry, and I have a headache and it's hard to read through all of these posts at the moment.
Current



24 hr



36 hr



48 hr

2590. ncstorm
Good Morning..is this a Mexico storm again? the models are back and forth with locations..

Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol... I thought 4 a minute u were getting all poetical... How u doing? Haven't seen u in the blog a lot of late...

Lol. I've been fine. Trying to survive this insane heat. You?
Quoting Chucktown:


We will not a designation until the HH get in there. NHC has waited this long, they will now wait until they get a visual confirmation of a closed circulation. Expect TD or maybe even TS Don at 5 PM.


you are probably correct about the 5pm designation ... just said may get it at 11, albeit unlikely.

do you agree about the role low pressure over the northern gulf may play?
2593. ncstorm
Looks like the HPC got Mexico on their radar with 90L..and I still see the low off NC

I noticed the models are nudging north every time they update. Is that because there is no "true" low level circulation fix yet? Once/if we get one will they quit shifting around? One more question is how strong are we looking at right now at landfall?
2581 ..

still looks like weakness in the ridge from the northern gulf to the atlantic coast at that steering level.

although, even after all these years I still never read these maps quite right.
Quoting Ameister12:

Lol. I've been fine. Trying to survive this insane heat. You?
Ditto... A/C is costly but worth it...

Anyway, I gotta run... see u guys when I see u....
They'll do nothing at 11 a.m., but if the HH find a tropical depression or Don, NHC will issue a special advisory package, which will take the place of the 2 p.m. advisory (assuming there will be tropical storm warnings for the northern part of the Yucatan and western part of Cuba, thus triggering intermediate advisories)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like the owl at Hooters

lol! that owl must be on crack:)
12 UTC sounding from Cancun agrees with the low level circulation to the N or NNW. Still shows that the mid-level center is clearly to the east of the low level.

And still showing some dry air at mid levels, though less than last night.

Still looking to be a Mexican landfall, whatever becomes of this thing (wave, TD, or TS designation). I think once the computer models gather all the surface observations, they in turn will adhere to the core adjustments pertaining to general motion and speed.

I'm still not ruling the extreme southern TX coast from Brownsville on southward into Mexico.
2601. ncstorm
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is what NHC is currently thinking, based on the latest SHIPS,



Where do you get those? Thanks BTW.

NVM, I see the FTP site which I have, thank you though.
Quoting fredric1979:
I noticed the models are nudging north every time they update. Is that because there is no "true" low level circulation fix yet? Once/if we get one will they quit shifting around? One more question is how strong are we looking at right now at landfall?


HH data should straighten out the models. Many aren't even seeing the current state of 90L.

Quoting sarahjola:
lol! that owl must be on crack:)


Crack is the word....or is that inter-gluteal cleft? The visible loop might get a PG-13.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Where do you get those? Thanks BTW.


ATCF
2606. Dennis8
Quoting weatherman566:


My apologies for not trying to read 20-30 pages of blog posts. I'm in a hurry, and I have a headache and it's hard to read through all of these posts at the moment.


No need to apologize for that User rudeness....
aspectre "And if ya had to pick a place for landfall, the KingRanch area is probably the least populated on the entire US portion of the Gulf coastline."
2571 cctxshirl "That's not very nice! (unless it's just some rain that we need)."

All I'm wishing for Texas is only some rain. On the other hand, I suspect more than a few people there would be willing to risk a landfalling TropicalCyclone to get that rain.
The water shortage has gotten so bad that any precipitation ain't gonna be viewed as "just" rain.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


HH data should straighten out the models. Many aren't even seeing the current state of 90L.



thanks
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


ATCF



I seen the link at the FTP site which I have, thanks though.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leave at 1130 Eastern. And read the other comments before you ask something, it's been asked and answered several times this morning.

Oi, give it a rest, some people do have lives outside of this blog, shock horror. I have not read and rarely do, If i was to read back almost 2600 posts there will be a new blog by then. Most of those posts are more or less the safe, hence why I don't read back.

So what if something has been asked before, don't be plain rude. Have some manners mate.

Looks like the ECMWF is not picking up on 90L. Wonder if that will change after the HH'ers go to investigate.

this is going to be the upper texas coast for don..it could develop into a strong cat 1 or a weak cat 2 with the water temps and the little shear it will encounter...IMO the central gulf coast or northern GOM is in the clear because of 2 major factors...there is a lot of dry air to our north sinking south and it will over spread us in 24 hours...then you have the strong shear in the northern gom not a great enviroment for DON to come north...so im looking at the UPPER TEXAS COAST for the bullseye early saturday making landfall
Bowl-o-pasta: (DellOp's term)



No GFDL?

06 UTC GFDL keeps it just below TS status, but couldn't even maintain a trackable vortex. At it's peak:

Good for TX rainfall.

But, "landfall" near the TX/LA border (or maybe as far west Anahuac). Not good for TX rainfall (Sw LA doesn't need it nearly as much. A middle TX cost landfall would be great!)

In a complete flip/flop on intensity, 00 UTC GFDL had a strong TS solution making landfall just east of Bolivar Pneinsula:

(Moving NW after this plot).
Quoting MysteryMeat:
They'll do nothing at 11 a.m., but if the HH find a tropical depression or Don, NHC will issue a special advisory package, which will take the place of the 2 p.m. advisory (assuming there will be tropical storm warnings for the northern part of the Yucatan and western part of Cuba, thus triggering intermediate advisories)


It'll not happen at 2pm, HH will only just have arrived at 90L by then, won't have anything conclusive for that advisory. Expect the fireworks at 5pm.
Quoting weatherman566:


My apologies for not trying to read 20-30 pages of blog posts. I'm in a hurry, and I have a headache and it's hard to read through all of these posts at the moment.


Don't worry about it. It don't hurt to ask questions.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
this is going to be the upper texas coast for don..it could develop into a strong cat 1 or a weak cat 2 with the water temps and the little shear it will encounter...IMO the central gulf coast or northern GOM is in the clear because of 2 major factors...there is a lot of dry air to our north sinking south and it will over spread us in 24 hours...then you have the strong shear in the northern gom not a great enviroment for DON to come north...so im looking at the UPPER TEXAS COAST for the bullseye early saturday making landfall


By early if you mean "in the dark" you may be on to something. ;)
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It'll not happen at 2pm, HH will only just have arrived at 90L by then, won't have anything conclusive for that advisory. Expect the fireworks at 5pm.



nhc is leaving at 1030am..
2611:seems too far north im thinking central tx coast just dont see bending that far....heck look at the 12z bam suites custering
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


By early if you mean "in the dark" you may be on to something. ;)



yes it will be in the dark from 2am to 4am..making landfall
Dynamical models.
2620. hydrus
This is interesting. CMC 850 mb vort loop shows 90L strengthening then weakening before landfall, and a significant system crossing the Atlantic nearing the Antilles and Puerto Rico in 144 hours.Link...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oi, give it a rest, some people do have lives outside of this blog, shock horror. I have not read and rarely do, If i was to read back almost 2600 posts there will be a new blog by then. Most of those posts are more or less the safe, hence why I don't read back.

So what if something has been asked before, don't be plain rude. Have some manners mate.


His post was 2569. Post 2536 had the time of the recon. That's 33 posts. Not hard to read half way down the page. Anyway, I wasn't trying to be rude, I was just trying to suggest that people have a brief look before cluttering the blog.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



nhc is leaving at 1030am..


Leaving at 1130.
2623. scott39
Global Modules are not picking up on 90L because they dont "see it". 90L is moving WNW at 301 degrees 11.2mph. 90L is feeling the weakness in the ridge and is slowing down.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dynamical models.

TVCN, AEMI, and GFTI look good for the drought IF the system stays weak.

Right now, ANY rain in SE and Central TX is "nectar of the gods", but I don't think any sane person here wants a serious storm to be the provider of the rain.
86.5W, 21.9N ... or so.
Hm, ASCAT at 13:30 suggests that any low level center (loosely applied terminology!) would have to be very close to the coast.

Nevemind. Blankety-blank 2 different times and dates on a blankety plot.
2627. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leaving at 1130.



eastern or central
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hm, ASCAT at 13:30 suggests that any low level center (loosely applied terminology!) would have to be very close to the coast.



Isn't that yesterdays, 15:00 at the bottom.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes it will be in the dark from 2am to 4am..making landfall


For some reason storms hit here a 2a.m. At least the last 4 I can think of.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leaving at 1130.

he meant cst not all of us live in the east coast
2632. Patrap
Its common etiquette to read back at least the current page to keep from being redundant.

Typhoon Nock-Ten/JUANING I am sad to report 27 people have been killed with a further 28 missing and 34 people injured.

646,289 people have been effected by TS JUANING.
Camarines Sur: 104,293,
Camarines Norte: 760,
Albay: 539,690

If anyone is interested. Here is a full report as of 8pm Philippines time of the effects of TS/TY JUANING/Nock-Ten.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hm, ASCAT at 13:30 suggests that any low level center (loosely applied terminology!) would have to be very close to the coast.



That's yesterdays, note the time at the bottom.. 1500.
Quoting scott39:
Global Modules are not picking up on 90L because they dont "see it". 90L is moving WNW at 301 degrees 11.2mph. 90L is feeling the weakness in the ridge and is slowing down.



scott this ridge will strengthen in the next 24 hours as the dry air pours into the northern gom..
2637. Patrap
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

he meant cst not all of us live in the east coast


Thats why UTC is used,everyone should know their Local UTC time easily.

If one dont,just pull up your local radar, the clock displays UTC as well.
Quoting jeffs713:

TVCN, AEMI, and GFTI look good for the drought IF the system stays weak.

Right now, ANY rain in SE and Central TX is "nectar of the gods", but I don't think any sane person here wants a serious storm to be the provider of the rain.


While my sanity may sometimes be in question, I do agree with you. :)
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

he meant cst not all of us live in the east coast


I know you don't, but he said it with regards to me saying recon won't be there in time for the 2pm advisory, so I assumed he meant 1030 Eastern.
2641. scott39
Quoting cloudburst2011:



scott this ridge will strengthen in the next 24 hours as the dry air pours into the northern gom..
Ive also read not until the end of the week. Will see.
the latest indications continue to point to the potential for a very busy August, September and October across the Atlantic Basin. The latest European seasonal model continues to point to significantly lower than average pressures across the western Atlantic, Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This lower than average pressure signal seems to point to numerous tropical cyclones tracking into the western half of the Atlantic Basin during August, September and October. For what it’s worth, the CFS model for Friday, August 26th is forecasting three significant tropical cyclones going at once across the Atlantic. The exact details of the model shouldn’t be trusted, however, the overall trend of a significant increase in tropical cyclone activity should be heeded.
Quoting Patrap:
Its common etiquette to read back at least the current page to keep from being redundant.


That's a good point, Pat. We wouldn't want anyone on here to be subjected to reading the 'Climate Change Indicator Link' post 20 times a day on the same blog...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


While my sanity may sometimes be in question, I do agree with you. :)

My sanity is always in question. ;)
TX percent of normal rainfall for the month of July, to date. July is not normally a very wet month for central TX, but 0 rain after a couple of months of 0 rain...



The only place green is extreme SE TX.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's yesterdays, note the time at the bottom.. 1500.
Aww, dang. It got me again!
*atmo takes a big sip of coffee to ward off any more bonehead moves*
Looks like TX could get a major drought buster. How much further right can the models shift? They've been steadily doing it since yesterday...
Quoting cloudburst2011:



nhc is leaving at 1030am..


Sorry, I think I misinterpreted what you were saying. Recon plane leaves at 1130 Eastern, but it'll take around an hour for the plane to reach 90L, and they generally spend a good few hours circling around to find data, so they won't have a great deal of data to give the NHC before 2pm advisory. Same as with Bret, recon left at the same time, at 2pm it was given 40% in the advisory, then over the next two hours the recon found it was a depression, so at 5pm it was designated.
Quoting scott39:
Ive also read not until the end of the week. Will see.



scott if you live in louisiana look to the north you can see the dry air pushing south ...it will over spread us in 24 hours protecting us from don...this is for the upper texas coast...
2652. Patrap
2653. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:
12 UTC sounding from Cancun agrees with the low level circulation to the N or NNW. Still shows that the mid-level center is clearly to the east of the low level.

And still showing some dry air at mid levels, though less than last night.



Check the visible sat loop. Huge outflows protruding out from outer t-storms. Confirmation of mid layer dryness. Once the system's "core structure" (what little there is at this point) moves away from the land masses it will be easier to for the system to moisten the dry layer.

Your thoughts on the latest consensus?
the latest indications continue to point to the potential for a very busy August, September and October across the Atlantic Basin. The latest European seasonal model continues to point to significantly lower than average pressures across the western Atlantic, Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This lower than average pressure signal seems to point to numerous tropical cyclones tracking into the western half of the Atlantic Basin during August, September and October. For what it’s worth, the CFS model for Friday, August 26th is forecasting three significant tropical cyclones going at once across the Atlantic. The exact details of the model shouldn’t be trusted, however, the overall trend of a significant increase in tropical cyclone activity should be heeded.
Recent WindSat from NRL Monterey, difficult to make any sense of it due to coastal/rain issues with Windsat.


Caution: You will get a "certificate error" due to .mil website.
Quoting Patrap:
by satellite alone, i'd guess at decoupling..
So the HH collect info that is sent on to the models? So maybe by tonight the models might come into more agreement as to where 90L/don is going?
just a wobble!
To my untrained eye's there appears to be a weak LLC to the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula, located on the northern edge of the western ball of deep convection.



Quoting cloudburst2011:



scott this ridge will strengthen in the next 24 hours as the dry air pours into the northern gom..


People keep saying this, but the local forecasts in my area (Mobile, AL) all say high rain chances untill Saturday.
Quoting DellOperator:


Check the visible sat loop. Huge outflows protruding out from outer t-storms. Confirmation of mid layer dryness. Once the system's "core structure" (what little there is at this point) moves away from the land masses it will be easier to for the system to moisten the dry layer.

Your thoughts on the latest consensus?
I'm holding back any thoughts until the 12 Z GFDL comes out, given it's 00 and 06 runs.

This bout of convection is the coldest cloud tops we've seen yet, I think. (crossed over to the blue inside the white/gray on this color scale)


Some hints of this deeper convection in the loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec5ir 404
2664. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.

2665. MahFL
Looks like the coc is actually at the north side of the convective blob, due to slight Northerly shear.
Quoting Minnemike:
by satellite alone, i'd guess at decoupling..



It is very possible for 90L to shed the tilted MLC as it would quickly be replaced by the current convection at the center.
2667. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
TX percent of normal rainfall for the month of July, to date. July is not normally a very wet month for central TX, but 0 rain after a couple of months of 0 rain...



The only place green is extreme SE TX.


And the green in extreme SE Texas is basically rain that fell week before last. Other than that, it has been bone dry throughout SE Texas since basically October.
Quoting jeffs713:

My sanity is always in question. ;)


Lol. It may be the heat. :)
Quoting IceCoast:
To my untrained eye's there appears to be a weak LLC to the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula, located on the northern edge of the western ball of deep convection.





That's exactly where the powers-that-be say the LLC is. Well spotted.
Quoting bradbarry27:


People keep saying this, but the local forecasts in my area (Mobile, AL) all say high rain chances untill Saturday.



yes maybe for you guys but not for here...there will be lots of shear across the northern gom and don will not try to come north or it will be shredded..
Quoting gulfscout:
So the HH collect info that is sent on to the models? So maybe by tonight the models might come into more agreement as to where 90L/don is going?


That's the plan.
Quoting IceCoast:
To my untrained eye's there appears to be a weak LLC to the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula, located on the northern edge of the western ball of deep convection.



That's the one I think the Cancun sounding showed
2673. Jax82
90L currently is only under approx 10kts of wind shear, if it can stay away from the coast it should organize more today, if it can get itself stacked right.
2674. hydrus
ECMWF 850 mb vort loop...Link
You can now clearly see the weakness to the North of 90L with heavy rain coming down in my part of the state of Louisiana...The Upper Tx coast to near the La border still would not surprise me...i'm not buying into this S Tx track that the BAM Suite is showing just yet
Quoting angiest:


And the green in extreme SE Texas is basically rain that fell week before last. Other than that, it has been bone dry throughout SE Texas since basically October.


Yeah my "Orange" county still under exceptional drought despite the burn ban lift. I am getting a shower now ironically. :)

Quoting angiest:


And the green in extreme SE Texas is basically rain that fell week before last. Other than that, it has been bone dry throughout SE Texas since basically October.
I meant green, as in the color of trees/grass/crops...I understand much of the rest of TX doesn't enjoy that condition.
I'm just SW of Galveston Bay in the light orange colors

Gonzo flys tomorrow night afternoon.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 27 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-057

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/1200,1800Z A. 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z C. 28/1730Z
D. 23.9N 90.2W D. NA
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/0000,0600Z
B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 28/2000Z C. 28/2215Z
D. 25.1N 92.3W D. 25.1N 92.3W
E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 29/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
C. 29/0800Z
D. 26.4N 94.3W
E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES.
When this thing finally gets stacked, I think it has a chance to spin up quickly. JMO, but I think the strong-TS-in-a-day solution is a real possibility (assuming the coupling happens).

As to track, I dunno, yet.
i think the bam suite is right sorry if not buying it but it sees something others cant...i dont see it going tx/la
2683. Patrap
2684. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
I meant green, as in the color of trees/grass...I understand much of the rest of TX doesn't enjoy that condition.


OK, I am not following. :) That area of green on the map just east of Galveston Bay is from rains that fell the week before last. Prior to that they were in D4 drought (parts of that area are now D3). Basically, they got rains that exceeded the normal for July.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
i think the bam suite is right sorry if not buying it but it sees something others cant...i dont see it going tx/la


Maybe because it goes over your area of Brownsville lol...I know who you are...you that Borndeodude or whatever from a few years back...we use to get into it becasue you always wanted a storm to come your way lol....believe it or not man i'm forecasting from an unbiased standpoint but if you want the storm i can root for you man you need the rain more than i do lol
12Z NAM 48 hours out suggests potential rainfall for LA & TX:



2687. scott39
If the bermuda high tracks more W than N, then we are looking at a S Texas landfall. If it goes more N than W, 90L wll go more N.
Quoting Patrap:
Wow! So, they think it has 80 knot winds ?!?!?
;-)

BRB, going to look for some surface obs to confirm.
Good morning guys, I see 90L is up to 80%. Will likely be TD #4 this afternoon, possibly Don depending on what the HH's find. IMO, central Texas will have a strong TS/minimal hurricane knocking at their door by saturday morning. They could do without the wind, but hey, at least you are going to get some rainfall, right?

AL, 90, 2011072712, , BEST, 0, 219N, 865W, 30, 1008, DB

TD winds, TD/TS pressure.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
i think the bam suite is right sorry if not buying it but it sees something others cant...i dont see it going tx/la


You could be right. Hopefully there'll be less guessing by this afternoon. Not that much time to make decisions if need be.
Quoting Patrap:

LOL
2692. Patrap
The NOGAPS develops this in the GOMEX.
Tpa morning soundings show a super moist enviornment, expect alot of heavy rains along fls west coast IMO with 2" not out of the question!!!
Quoting angiest:


OK, I am not following. :) That area of green on the map just east of Galveston Bay is from rains that fell the week before last. Prior to that they were in D4 drought (parts of that area are now D3). Basically, they got rains that exceeded the normal for July.
Your grass is green, now, yes?
North and west of you, everything is brown. (If I understand correctly.)

My "green" comment was not about the colors on the map, but the color of the trees, grass, and crops.
2696. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow! So, they think it has 80 knot winds ?!?!?
;-)



Indeed,,,someone has to show the error.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'm holding back any thoughts until the 12 Z GFDL comes out, given it's 00 and 06 runs.

This bout of convection is the coldest cloud tops we've seen yet, I think. (crossed over to the blue inside the white/gray on this color scale)


Roger that! The company I work for just went into surveillance mode. Right when I am going on vacation this weekend. Figures as much. LOL
2698. angiest
This is what NWS Houston is thinking as of the early morning:

Right now the forecast for Friday will be on
the conservative side given uncertainty surrounding the
development of the system and how model guidance handle weak
systems rather poorly. That said a more northwest track makes more sense
as the upper level ridge should be located over the Carolinas by
Thursday night. Ridges at 700/850mb will also be located in this
general area with a weakness over the northwest Gulf through Texas. Given
the flow around the ridge...think this system for now will track
around the ridge in the general direction of the Texas coast.
2699. Patrap
As per the disclaimer..


This final value of the 6-h running mean with a decay rule applied is considered the current intensity number or CI. The CI, as with any T-number estimate, can be converted into a intensity. However, it is important to note that THIS TECHNIQUE IS ONLY VALID FOR STORMS OF HURRICANE INTENSITY (65 kt) OR GREATER.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
i think the bam suite is right sorry if not buying it but it sees something others cant...i dont see it going tx/la


The Bamm suite historically is totally unreliable!!!
got to see if it continues through..still early
2702. Patrap
No charge fer da lesson. : )
Quoting Patrap:

The LLC. I see it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The NOGAPS develops this in the GOMEX.

does it really and where does it take it? mexico?
Possibly Tropical Storm Watches will be going up somewhere by 10PM CDT tonight...if not definitely 10AM CDT TOMM
Quoting Patrap:
As per the disclaimer..


This final value of the 6-h running mean with a decay rule applied is considered the current intensity number or CI. The CI, as with any T-number estimate, can be converted into a intensity. However, it is important to note that THIS TECHNIQUE IS ONLY VALID FOR STORMS OF HURRICANE INTENSITY (65 kt) OR GREATER.
Ummm, so why post it without the disclaimer for an invest, then?
Just sayin, you might give some novice lurker the wrong idea.
2707. ncstorm
Quoting cat5hurricane:

That's a good point, Pat. We wouldn't want anyone on here to be subjected to reading the 'Climate Change Indicator Link' post 20 times a day on the same blog...


aint that the truth!
2708. Patrap
BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.

Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.



Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.
2709. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
Your grass is green, now, yes?
North and west of you, everything is brown. (If I understand correctly.)

My "green" comment was not about the colors on the map, but the color of the trees, grass, and crops.


No, I live on the west side of Houston, where it is red on the map. Everything out here is still dead (except for irrigation). Bayous are still running low on the west side. In town, where a tad more rain has fallen, things are a little better. Ultimately, though, the biggest impact of the rains has been to green up the beaches of the ponds and tanks. Beaches that were under water until the spring.
You have to wonder; with the US starting to withdraw forces in the Middle East, funding tight for NOAA/NHC, and the possibility of an extra Predator drone or two in the coming years, would be great to see one go to NHC and retro-fitted with gear and doppler for use during h-season........A lot cheaper, and potentially safer, than sending out a full flight crew I would think as well as extended flight times for observation and they could still fly them out of Kessler......Just a thought.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The NOGAPS develops this in the GOMEX.


I was just about to mention that that wave needs to be watched closely. But we need to watch the wave behind it even more closely.

Quoting angiest:


No, I live on the west side of Houston, where it is red. Everything out here is still dead (except for irrigation). Bayous are still running low on the west side. In town, where a tad more rain has fallen, things are a little better. Ultimately, though, the biggest impact of the rains has been to green up the beaches of the ponds and tanks. Beaches that were under water until the spring.
Oh, you're not the one in golden Triangle. Right.

I can imagine it is quite brown, there. I know a rancher outside Columbus that's hurtin'.
I think someone here might have nailed the 21.9N, 86.5W mark.
LLC of 90L Appears to be moving NW look closely
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The NOGAPS develops this in the GOMEX.
going into CA or Yucatan imo
2716. sky1989
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The NOGAPS develops this in the GOMEX.


Considering that the NOGAPS was really the only one that favored 90L to develop in the beginning, I would not totally discount that.
2717. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Possibly Tropical Storm Watches will be going up somewhere by 10PM CDT tonight...if not definitely 10AM CDT TOMM


I'm thinking sooner. We are getting close to 48 hours to landfall, and I think warnings go up at 36 hours now don't they?
Ok, for SE TX residents only:


Potential tropical cyclone threat to the state of Texas later this week/weekend.


Significant forecast changes likely over the next 48 hours.



Discussion:

The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized with deep convection frequent near/over the wave axis. Radar out of Cancun and surface observations suggest that the strong mid level center may be working its way to the surface and developing a surface circulation, at this time it is weak and barely noted in the surface data and deep convection while persistent remains scattered.



Track:

Massive high pressure ridge holding over TX for months will be moving ENE toward the Carolinas over the next 48 hours allowing a weakness to develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico and the TX coast. The Caribbean system will track along the SW side of the ridge into this weakness or in the general direction of the TX coast. Global guidance is still not “seeing” what is happening in the Caribbean Sea and shows little development, so will toss it out as it is clear that a tropical system is forming. Will follow the expected ridge position and split the difference between the 2 hurricane forecasting models (GFDL and HWRF) and the multi model consensus package and indicate a potential threat from Galveston to Brownsville with highest threat right now from about Corpus Christi to Port O Connor. GFDL takes the system as a cat 1 hurricane into Galveston Bay while the HWRF takes the system as a strong cat 1 into the area near Corpus Christi. The multi model consensus is pegged just west of Port O Connor taking into account the GFS and GFDL upper coast and the HWRF and EURO southern coast.



Will get a better handle on the spreading track solutions by this evening as data from a USAF mission midday today is ingested into the models.



Intensity:

Overall size of the system is small which means it is vulnerable to surrounding atmospheric conditions moreso than a large system. The system is over very warm waters with temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sea. Upper level shear while strong over the northern Gulf of Mexico is light over the southern Gulf and forecast to gradually weekend as the southern plains high shifts eastward. The air mass over the southern Gulf does have a bit of dry air and this may be one reason as to why the convection has been fairly meager with this system and this could impact the system down the road as it moves across the Gulf. Overall conditions in the Gulf appear favorable for development and small system can spin up/down very quickly due to surrounding atmospheric changes (dry air intrusion, weak shear, ect). SHIPS guidance brings the system to a hurricane in the Gulf along with the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models, while the GFS, EURO, and CMC show very little development at all. Feel the big global models (GFS, EURO, and CMC) are missing this small system altogether and will not put much faith in their current forecast, while the hurricane models do seem high. For now will go with a blend of the two camps and lean toward the stronger solutions with a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane approaching the TX coast late Friday.



Impacts:

Feel it is best to await data from the aircraft this afternoon before going full force on coastal impacts. Forecast will no doubt need some significant changes with respect to seas, tides, rain changes, and rainfall amounts, along with wind forecast for Friday into Saturday. Will at least bump rain chances to 50% for Friday for areas south of I-10 and this could go much higher and hit those same areas with widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall. Coastal winds will begin to back from the SSW to ESE and then E Thursday night into Friday and increase. For now will hold winds below TS force over all areas awaiting NHC wind guidance if/once the system is declared. Based on current track guidance feel, TS force winds (40mph or greater) will be needed by Friday evening over parts of the middle and upper TX coast waters and coastal counties and spreading inland Friday night.



Preparations:

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.
2720. MahFL
Whatever happens 90L is away from land and moving into the GOM, with lowish shear......
2721. Patrap
Hard to quote a image,,a Post number is good nuff.
heck the 0z ecmwf did show a southern tx landfall had been showing this for runs now
2723. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ummm, so why post it without the disclaimer for an invest, then?
Just sayin, you might give some novice lurker the wrong idea.


I like messing with aggies early..and well cat5 of course too.

Best work on those ascat time stamp's sport as well.
2724. Mixed
Some Good Rain Here In St. Lucia, Thunder And Lightning As Well....


2725. SLU
2726. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Its common etiquette to read back at least the current page to keep from being redundant.



Would you mind repeating that?
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Maybe because it goes over your area of Brownsville lol...I know who you are...you that Borndeodude or whatever from a few years back...we use to get into it becasue you always wanted a storm to come your way lol....believe it or not man i'm forecasting from an unbiased standpoint but if you want the storm i can root for you man you need the rain more than i do lol

true will see what outcome it'll take
2728. SLU
Quoting Mixed:
Some Good Rain Here In St. Lucia, Thunder And Lightning As Well....




Enjoying every bit of it :)
2729. Patrap
2726. Grothar


Why, I digress.

Morning Carl..you traveling yet?
2730. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was just about to mention that that wave needs to be watched closely. But we need to watch the wave behind it even more closely.

I believe the wave that has already moved over the Atlantic is going to develop and cause problems for the Antilles, Puerto Rico and possibly Florida...Just a hunch, not doom-casting...
Here is some OTP NAM action:

Preparations:

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Sigh
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes maybe for you guys but not for here...there will be lots of shear across the northern gom and don will not try to come north or it will be shredded..


Mobile is central northern Gulf Coast. I am not trying to argue, just wondering why the discrepancy.
2734. scott39
Is the coordinate 86.5W right with 90L?
Well....We'll have Don tonight or tomorrow morning, that will make three named storms in July. That also means we will already have four named storms before entering into August. Unless activity slows down, I'm not so sure we'll stay behind last years total.

* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Don

Compared to...

* Alex
* Bonnie

And it isn't like an inactive ASO is predicting, quite the opposite really.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
I think someone here might have nailed the 21.9N, 86.5W mark.


Good to see ya, NC!

How's the "home(r)" treating you?
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
21.93N/86.29W


Big thunderstorms expanding over the center. 90L making sure that it's LLC doesn't get pulled out from underneath it. We will have plenty of HH data to chew on later.

Texas is gonna have to start getting ready, not just for the storm but getting the word out and having plans in place, this is all gonna happen extremely fast.

And if this thing were to blow and be a small monster, people are gonna be ticked why weren't they notified sooner about this....well because of conservatism
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Preparations:

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Sigh


Wow here we go again in SE Texas LOL !!!!
Interesting to note though the NOGAPS is one of the few models that foreseen 90L becoming a player when other models didnt...its also the only model showing such a northern movement with 90L but if this were to materialize while the other models are still buried in Mexico the NOGAPS could really emerge this season as the model to go to...or the other ones down in Mexico like the ECMWF can emerge again...it will be interesting to see
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well....We'll have Don tonight or tomorrow morning, that will make three named storms in July. That also means we will already have four named storms before entering into August. Unless activity slows down, I'm not so sure we'll stay behind last years total.

* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Don

Compared to...

* Alex
* Bonnie

And it isn't like an inactive ASO is predicting, quite the opposite really.


Said back in March that this season would likely be more active earlier than the last two seasons. If 90L develops, which looks likely, and becomes Don.. that's on pair with 2008 which had 3 storms in July as well.
If you look at overall conditions in the Gulf at the moment they are a little complex with a TUTT cell in the Bay of Campeche, some higher sheer off the coast of Texas, and not a lot of lead time for whoever gets the storm after recon can get a good fix and data. My point is that I think the intensity forecast for this system is going to be tricky so folks in the potential path should be properly prepared for anything from a TD to a Cat 1 (hopefully not higher).
2744. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Is the coordinate 86.5W right with 90L?
The NHC floater will throw you off on coordinates. 86.5 is right.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
You have to wonder; with the US starting to withdraw forces in the Middle East, funding tight for NOAA/NHC, and the possibility of an extra Predator drone or two in the coming years, would be great to see one go to NHC and retro-fitted with gear and doppler for use during h-season........A lot cheaper, and potentially safer, than sending out a full flight crew I would think as well as extended flight times for observation and they could still fly them out of Kessler......Just a thought.
You mean Keesler right?
2746. Patrap
Watches & Warnings

* TROPICAL STORM WATCH
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
*

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

* HURRICANE WATCH
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
*

HURRICANE WARNING
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
* INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified interior area within 48 hours.
*

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified interior area within 36 hours.
* INLAND HURRICANE WATCH
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified interior area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
*

INLAND HURRICANE WARNING
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified interior area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
We will get Storm Alert on the TWC right?
Quoting twincomanche:
You mean Keesler right?


Yup...forgot the extra e.......
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Interesting to note though the NOGAPS is one of the few models that foreseen 90L becoming a player when other models didnt...its also the only model showing such a northern movement with 90L but if this were to materialize while the other models are still buried in Mexico the NOGAPS could really emerge this season as the model to go to...or the other ones down in Mexico like the ECMWF can emerge again...it will be interesting to see


Sounds like the Grothar model. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will get Storm Alert on the TWC right?


Whenever this system approaches the US I would suspect.
2751. ncstorm
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Interesting to note though the NOGAPS is one of the few models that foreseen 90L becoming a player when other models didnt...its also the only model showing such a northern movement with 90L but if this were to materialize while the other models are still buried in Mexico the NOGAPS could really emerge this season as the model to go to...or the other ones down in Mexico like the ECMWF can emerge again...it will be interesting to see


for initalization of a storm yes but not for tracking of a storm..it had 90L hitting the east coast of florida..
Quoting scott39:
Is the coordinate 86.5W right with 90L?


22N/86.5W
Folks here at work, don't even have a clue about this developing situation
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Said back in March that this season would likely be more active earlier than the last two seasons. If 90L develops, which looks likely, and becomes Don.. that's on pair with 2008 which had 3 storms in July as well.
what would you say if i told you we may have 4
the LLC is just to the NE of the new burst of convection and again looks to be moving NW
NWS in Lake Charles responding to 90L as my Friday forecast has a high chance of rain with 15mph winds with gusts as high as 20-25mph
Quoting hydrus:
I believe the wave that has already moved over the Atlantic is going to develop and cause problems for the Antilles, Puerto Rico and possibly Florida...Just a hunch, not doom-casting...


I'm really not too worried about Florida this year as far as hurricane threats go. I obviously could easily be wrong because their isn't any reliability in such long range predictions. However, its always fun to attempt at them anyway. With that said, I think Florida will make it through this season without significant impacts. Of course I'm referring to significant systems, not weak tropical cyclones.
2758. SLU
This new burst of deep convection near the center pretty much seals the deal as far as TD status is concerned. I won't be surprised if the recon finds a well developed system today.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what would you say if i told you we may have 4


Very possible if the hints the models are showing come to pass.
90% at 2pm!!!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Folks here at work, don't even have a clue about this developing situation



rita dont you guys have a warning system...im sure EM is all over this
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:


Wow here we go again in SE Texas LOL !!!!


Lol. DeJa Vu is strong this morning. Had to check the date make sure I wasn't in a time warp. You'd think we'd have this down by now. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Folks here at work, don't even have a clue about this developing situation


Wait till this afternoon, the media is going to explode.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Interesting to note though the NOGAPS is one of the few models that foreseen 90L becoming a player when other models didnt...its also the only model showing such a northern movement with 90L but if this were to materialize while the other models are still buried in Mexico the NOGAPS could really emerge this season as the model to go to...or the other ones down in Mexico like the ECMWF can emerge again...it will be interesting to see


The ECMWF (EURO) model was also showing the wave developing but only in a different location and time. It might have been wrong there but it kept saying it would develop
2765. Patrap
Well Houston best get informed in time for the IKE Dancing Bear Guy to get his costume together.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Folks here at work, don't even have a clue about this developing situation


Relax bro, its not that serious lol...breathe
Quoting cloudburst2011:



rita dont you guys have a warning system...im sure EM is all over this


Oh yea, but they haven't said a word to the public. I'm sure behind the scenes they're watching, but as far as the public, not a clue, a deer in the middle of the road without a clue
Proof that the downward motion doesn't really have any affect this time of season and on...

see the center here!
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
90% at 2pm!!!


Might be a TD at 2 PM. HH will have been in the storm since 11AM
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good to see ya, NC!

How's the "home(r)" treating you?


Hi there...I'm down with OTP, yeah you know me.

I got to say, all is well. I enjoy getting to come in here with you young whipper-snappers and fuss and discuss the tropical goings on. On-topic, of course, as always.

90L looks, to me, as if it will slide further up the TX coast than many suspect. So much depends on its strength it attains once it begins to spin up inn earnest.

If it goes nuts right away, then a course more into the northern gulf, perhaps sqaurely in the NW gulf is more likely than anywhere south of galveston.

That is, of course, only my on-topic opinion.
2772. ncstorm
Accuweather..

A strong tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean is not only on the verge of organizing into a tropical depression, but it may become the next named system in the Atlantic Basin while taking a path toward Texas.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Interaction with land and fast movement prevented the tropical wave from wrapping up into an organized tropical system during the past few days."

"Now with the wave away from Cuba, slowing its forward speed over the deep warm water of the northwestern Caribbean, there is room for organization and then intensification," Kottlowski said.

If this trend continues, the birth of a tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin could happen by the end of the day.

The system is forecast to then track through the western Gulf of Mexico tonight into Friday, likely strengthening into Tropical Storm Don along the way.

Without cool water or disruptive wind shear (strong winds high in the atmosphere) ahead of the system to bring about its demise, it is inevitable that the system will make landfall after it enters the western Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists have pinpointed landfall to occur either late on Friday or Friday night.

"The key to the system's track will be the strength of the Bermuda high pressure which is nosing westward across Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Feerick.

If the high pressure area maintains its strength, the system will be forced toward South Texas or northern Mexico. Weakening high pressure area would open the door for the system to target the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Heavy rain and strong, gusty winds would accompany the system wherever it moves inland as well as areas nearby.

According to Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "While not likely to develop into an intense hurricane, there is room for the system to reach minimal hurricane status prior to landfall."

With the landfall of any tropical storm or hurricane, there is the risk of flash flooding and loss of life. However, the prospect of drenching rain is definitely news Texas residents want to hear.

Most of coastal Louisiana and Texas are suffering from an extreme to exceptional drought
XX/AOI/XL
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Relax bro, its not that serious lol...breathe


relax? I think it's hillarious, that people now days are such sheep,
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Might be a TD at 2 PM. HH will have been in the storm since 11AM

It is already a weak TD. Global dynamical models are having a tough time with it because the circulation is so small...suprised though the ECMWF isn't picking it up.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Relax bro, its not that serious lol...breathe



it has all the ingredients to be a cat 2 as it comes ashore...people on the upper texas coast need to be taking precautions NOW
Quoting Patrap:
Well Houston best get informed in time for the IKE Dancing Bear Guy to get his costume together.


hmmm, wonder where that yo yo is...
Looks like the wave around 30W being developed by the GFS (last few runs), CMC, and Euro. Heading toward the northern islands.
Holding up well.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Oh, you're not the one in golden Triangle. Right.

I can imagine it is quite brown, there. I know a rancher outside Columbus that's hurtin'.


I am in the Golden Triangle area of Texas..close to Port Arthur...we are watching...and have preparations ready just in case. Rita and Ike did a number on us here so my family is always prepared just in case.
Quoting cloudburst2011:



it has all the ingredients to be a cat 2 as it comes ashore...people on the upper texas coast need to be taking precautions NOW


Cat 2 winds equal what Ike's winds were, if that were to happen, lol people be freaked out
2784. Patrap
Get a Grip,,

...no track is established with 90L,,and the NHC will put out Watches when the HH data is absorbed and they have confidence in a good track.

That takes data and time.

That's why the G-4 will fly and input that and other data to be factored in for a good coastal solution..

hi mixed, happy to see another blogger out of saint lucia. according to SlU, enjoy nthe rains.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Might be a TD at 2 PM. HH will have been in the storm since 11AM


HH leave at 1130. Will take time to get there and then another few hours while there to make observations to decide if it's a TD. They won't have confirmation of a TD until 5pm, I would guess. Wouldn't suprise me to see 'Near 100%' at 2pm though.
Quoting RitaEvac:


relax? I think it's hillarious, that people now days are such sheep,
Yeah...but didn't you hear that J-Lo is dating again.....

2788. yoboi
Quoting cloudburst2011:



it has all the ingredients to be a cat 2 as it comes ashore...people on the upper texas coast need to be taking precautions NOW


just wait until the last minute to try and get supplies when none will be avaliable works everytime
Definitely my favorite...

Quoting barbamz:
Good morning over there!
Webcam Cancun looks impressive:
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cancun.html
What do you think a Cat 5 storm surge would do to that thin strip? Sorry, It's the first thing that came to my mind after seeing it.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup...forgot the extra e.......
There are a lot of issues about flying unmanned aircraft around in civilian airspace, but on a practical level it would make a lot of sense.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Yeah...but didn't you hear that J-Lo is dating again.....



Nope, sheep keep up with that, not me
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
What do you think a Cat 5 storm surge would do to that thin strip? Sorry, It's the first thing that came to my mind after seeing it.


You mean, like Wilma?

2794. angiest
Quoting RitaEvac:
Folks here at work, don't even have a clue about this developing situation


No communication from work yet. Given that we activated ride-out for TS Edouard back in 2008, I am reasonably sure I will be here through it (my gut is somewhere from roughly High Island to Matagorda as most likely landfall location, but I am not totally convinced just yet.)
Here is GFS 700mb wind isotachs map that depicts a trough off the east coast... you can see the energy from 90L in the North Central gulf

Invest 90L - 60 mph Max Expected



Quoting txag91met:

It is already a weak TD. Global dynamical models are having a tough time with it because the circulation is so small...suprised though the ECMWF isn't picking it up.


Yes I agree. I have been saying it looks like a TD already all mourning. The worst thing that could happen right now would be the storm to turn into a Major Hurricane. That would give people very Little time to evacuate.
and here are the 850mb winds, shortly after landfall in LA:

They are evacuating us from our Oil Platform, so I will be offline a bit.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm really not too worried about Florida this year as far as hurricane threats go. I obviously could easily be wrong because their isn't any reliability in such long range predictions. However, its always fun to attempt at them anyway. With that said, I think Florida will make it through this season without significant impacts. Of course I'm referring to significant systems, not weak tropical cyclones.
TPA has macdill afb,headquarters of the dep of defence,never will tpa get a sigficant TC landfall,what do you think that nudge into Charlotte hatbor was with Charley????
Quoting sunlinepr:
Invest 90L - 60 mph Max Expected





Don't be surprised if it gets stronger.
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
They are evacuating us from our Oil Platform, so I will be offline a bit.


What part of gulf?
2804. barbamz
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
What do you think a Cat 5 storm surge would do to that thin strip? Sorry, It's the first thing that came to my mind after seeing it.


Wilma approaching Cancun ...
Anyone knows when Recon is set to take off? TIA. I think future Don could make Cat3 status before landfall.
KOTG- The system just east of The Windwards looks about the same spot 90L got going (when it was just to the north of Barbados). Will be interesting to see if it follows a similar direction.Gusty winds here in Cayman today,from the south
Quoting atmoaggie:
I can imagine it is quite brown, there. I know a rancher outside Columbus that's hurtin'.

We get big dust clouds out here when the livestock cross the pasture. If it weren't for the trees, they could probably lift the burn ban, since all the dead stuff on the ground has long since blown away. When we finally do get a good heavy, I worry about erosion and how long it may take for some of the ground cover to return.
2808. angiest
I expect Houston will have an updated forecast discussion soon (the excerpt I posted earlier was from 4:20 this morning). I wonder if they will have any new thoughts. I have noticed they prefer to blend NAM and GFS, and give a lot of thought to "Euro," as their forecasters call it.
2809. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
hi mixed, happy to see another blogger out of saint lucia. according to SlU, enjoy nthe rains.


Great weather man!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You mean, like Wilma?


90L's hero.



shear is weakining in the gulf. the only problem for 90L i see now is a little pool of dry air like Levi mentioned in his tidbit. there will be wind shear from that big US ridge but its currently weakining
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what would you say if i told you we may have 4
Good morning. What are your thoughts in regards to the wave just to the east of the Antilles ? To my untrined eye looks better and more concentrated than 90L did at this point.
2813. beell
2772. ncstorm 2:59 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

Accuweather making sense this morning.

Accuweather

..."The key to the system's track will be the strength of the Bermuda high pressure which is nosing westward across Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Feerick.

If the high pressure area maintains its strength, the system will be forced toward South Texas or northern Mexico. Weakening high pressure area would open the door for the system to target the northwestern Gulf Coast...
What will 90L/Don become

A: Tropical Storm
B: CAT 1 Hurricane
C: CAT 2 Hurricane
D: CAT 3-5 Hurricane

for me it would have to be B but I can't rule out C either. I know that the temps in the ocean off Texas are very high. Low wind Shear ahead of the storm too from what I hear.
2815. Seawall
Time to make sure the generators start in SW Louisiana!
Quoting NotCircumventing:


Hi there...I'm down with OTP, yeah you know me.

I got to say, all is well. I enjoy getting to come in here with you young whipper-snappers and fuss and discuss the tropical goings on. On-topic, of course, as always.

90L looks, to me, as if it will slide further up the TX coast than many suspect. So much depends on its strength it attains once it begins to spin up inn earnest.

If it goes nuts right away, then a course more into the northern gulf, perhaps sqaurely in the NW gulf is more likely than anywhere south of galveston.

That is, of course, only my on-topic opinion.


Always good to hear the wisdom that comes from experiences. I think your analysis is spot on.

Thanks, Pal!
2817. Grothar
Very warm temperatures on the Gulf

2818. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't be surprised if it gets stronger.


My own best guess is a 65-70mph tropical storm. I won't discount it making it to minimal hurricane strength.
2819. Levi32
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anyone knows when Recon is set to take off? TIA. I think future Don could make Cat3 status before landfall.


It takes off at 11:30am EDT.
2820. Levi32
Quoting beell:
2772. ncstorm 2:59 PM GMT on July 27, 2011

Accuweather making sense this morning.

Accuweather

..."The key to the system's track will be the strength of the Bermuda high pressure which is nosing westward across Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Feerick.

If the high pressure area maintains its strength, the system will be forced toward South Texas or northern Mexico. Weakening high pressure area would open the door for the system to target the northwestern Gulf Coast...


The key is the strength of the system and whether it follows the more northwesterly surface flow around the Bermuda ridge (weaker system), or the deeper WNW mid-level flow around the central U.S. ridge (stronger system).
2821. angiest
Quoting floridaboy14:



shear is weakining in the gulf. the only problem for 90L i see now is a little pool of dry air like Levi mentioned in his tidbit. there will be wind shear from that big US ridge but its currently weakining


WRT to dry air, also from NWS Houston this morning:

the reality is that there will be quite a bit of moisture and
enough of a weakness in the upper level ridge to at least support
some thunderstorm activity across southeast Texas today and tomorrow. Probability of precipitation
will still range from 20 to 30 percent each day


Wind shear remaining low over the next 48 hours.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
What will 90L/Don become

A: Tropical Storm
B: CAT 1 Hurricane
C: CAT 2 Hurricane
D: CAT 3-5 Hurricane

for me it would have to be B but I can't rule out C either. I know that the temps in the ocean off Texas are very high. Low wind Shear ahead of the storm too from what I hear.


I agree, either B or C. D probably won't happen because of the timing but it shouldn't be completely ruled out either--nobody was predicting Katrina or Rita to blow up so much but look what happened. They had just a little bit more time than this system.
Blog post! Read for my opinion on this system.
90L on the verge of becoming TD#4, two waves to watch 7/27/11
2825. Tygor
I'm not sure why people would think this could head to south central Texas. It's a force field for rain. We're destined to be brown and on fire.
Quoting angiest:


My own best guess is a 65-70mph tropical storm. I won't discount it making it to minimal hurricane strength.


I agree.
Take this for what its worth....really nothing. Had a dream 90L made a considerable turn to the North, and under went some rapid intensification "looked like atleast a Cat 2". When I finally woke up around 6, first thing I done was grab my phone and check the floater!
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
21.93N/86.29W


Quoting stormsurf:
Take this for what its worth....really nothing. Had a dream 90L made a considerable turn to the North, and under went some rapid intensification "looked like atleast a Cat 2". When I finally woke up around 6, first thing I done was grab my phone and check the floater!

LOL
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
14.55N/55.55W
2831. angiest
Quoting bluheelrtx:

We get big dust clouds out here when the livestock cross the pasture. If it weren't for the trees, they could probably lift the burn ban, since all the dead stuff on the ground has long since blown away. When we finally do get a good heavy, I worry about erosion and how long it may take for some of the ground cover to return.


Our driest period (this is the Katy area) was October through roughly mid May. After mid May the pattern changed just enough to give us some sea breeze action (which is still spotty). We had one extremely heavy downpour near my house in the latter part of May. It rained so hard and the ground was so dry that most of it ran off. There was so much water on the streets that you would think we had gotten 4 inches of rain on top of reasonably wet ground. Furthermore, the storm brought strong winds. Lots of tree damage, including one large pine tree snapped off about 4-5 feet above ground.
2832. beell
Quoting Levi32:


The key is the strength of the system and whether it follows the more northwesterly surface flow around the Bermuda ridge (weaker system), or the deeper WNW mid-level flow around the central U.S. ridge (stronger system).


Agree. Kinda been on that same theme here (on my blog) for a while.
2833. Melagoo
Quoting stormsurf:
Take this for what its worth....really nothing. Had a dream 90L made a considerable turn to the North, and under went some rapid intensification "looked like atleast a Cat 2". When I finally woke up around 6, first thing I done was grab my phone and check the floater!


Aren't those dreams called Nightmares?
Quoting stormsurf:
Take this for what its worth....really nothing. Had a dream 90L made a considerable turn to the North, and under went some rapid intensification "looked like atleast a Cat 2". When I finally woke up around 6, first thing I done was grab my phone and check the floater!


Yeah, that hasn't happened yet, lol.
2835. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:


The key is the strength of the system and whether it follows the more northwesterly surface flow around the Bermuda ridge (weaker system), or the deeper WNW mid-level flow around the central U.S. ridge (stronger system).


Hey Levi,

great video by the way..I thought if the system headed north, it would have more time over water to intensify and it would actually be stronger than if it went the shorter route and headed to southern texas..is the sheer forcasted to be high near the TX/LA direction?
2836. angiest
Quoting hurricaneben:


I agree, either B or C. D probably won't happen because of the timing but it shouldn't be completely ruled out either--nobody was predicting Katrina or Rita to blow up so much but look what happened. They had just a little bit more time than this system.


Time seems the biggest factor to me as well.
LLC took cover under that deep blow-up of convection..

2838. Jax82
GOM Visible
2839. Levi32
Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Levi,

great video by the way..I thought if the system headed north, it would have more time over water to intensify and it would actually be stronger than if it went the shorter route and headed to southern texas..is the sheer forcasted to be high near the TX/LA direction?


Well it's a bit of a strange deal...as the farther north you go during the next 3 days, the upper winds could eventually become lighter, as the system would be closer to the center of the southern U.S. ridge, reducing the shear. However, to get more northerly, it has to first stay weak. I think subsidence from the ridge will keep it in check even if shear does weaken a bit.
Coming a flood here in The Breeze, all the frogs are happy.
You guys will have to post the recon data since I can't get Google Earth.
Quoting Levi32:


Well it's a bit of a strange deal...as the farther north you go during the next 3 days, the lighter the upper winds will probably get, as the system would be closer to the center of the southern U.S. ridge, reducing the shear. However, to get more northerly, it has to first stay weak. I think subsidence from the ridge will keep it in check even if shear does weaken a bit.


Good blog update Levi. It's good to hear to that we have few factors going agianst this system. Hopefully all this will be remembered for is a busting the drought along the texas coast on up to Dallas. Last few frames give the illusion that the low level circulation has jogged a bit west closer to those big storms to its southwest.
2844. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:


Well it's a bit of a strange deal...as the farther north you go during the next 3 days, the upper winds could eventually become lighter, as the system would be closer to the center of the southern U.S. ridge, reducing the shear. However, to get more northerly, it has to first stay weak. I think subsidence from the ridge will keep it in check even if shear does weaken a bit.


Thanks for the input!
2845. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wind shear remaining low over the next 48 hours.


now looks better for development
Quoting Levi32:
Circulation looking more and more well-defined with time


You think we have a tropical depression?
90l another nail biter wth is them clouds coming off cuba?
2848. Levi32
This is often dismissed as irrelevant, but to me, when the NAM, a very feedback-driven model in the tropical areas, fails to blow up a system, I'm skeptical of strengthening.

12z NAM
Blob east of the island is not looking too shabby either. 850mb Vorticity has deepened some and consolidated. Has increased a little at 700mb. Convergence and divergence is in the area. Shear looks to be 10-30kts but decreasing. Looks just as good or better than 90L did at this position.
2850. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You think we have a tropical depression?


I'm with the NHC on waiting for the recon, which is only 2 hours away (should be taking off now). Radar and surface observations are inconclusive on whether the circulation is closed. That southern part is still hidden beneath thunderstorms.
Quoting Levi32:
This is often dismissed as irrelevant, but to me, when the NAM, a very feedback-driven model in the tropical areas, fails to blow up a system, I'm skeptical of strengthening.

12z NAM


That's like the first time though, right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You think we have a tropical depression?



yes indeed its been a tropical depression since early this morning...they will find DON when they get in the area
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Blob east of the island is not looking too shabby either. 850mb Vorticity has deepened some and consolidated. Has increased a little at 700mb. Convergence and divergence is in the area. Shear looks to be 10-30kts but decreasing. Looks just as good or better than 90L did at this position.


2854. bayeloi
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 27th, with Video


Great update. Thanks for taking the time to do this.
2855. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's like the first time though, right?


The NAM hasn't done much with this one from the time it showed up in its forecast period.
2856. hamla
question for all the rain/thunderstorms here in louisiana and mississippi along the coast for the past week or so have been moving generly in a ne/e direction coming out of the gulf.some have come from the north.i thought that when a high sits over this region the flow and storms come from the east/southeast not the southwest/north.is there a weakness in the upper steering paterns?? whats going on???
thanks
Quoting Jax82:
GOM Visible


Looking at the same vis loop on weathertap, it does appear that the center of circulation is consolidating underneath the convection off the Yucatan coast due north of Mosquito Point (Punta Mosquito) and slowly moving away from land which would allow further organization............They might find a closed circulation later this afternoon and declare a TD IMHO.
2858. Levi32
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Blob east of the island is not looking too shabby either. 850mb Vorticity has deepened some and consolidated. Has increased a little at 700mb. Convergence and divergence is in the area. Shear looks to be 10-30kts but decreasing. Looks just as good or better than 90L did at this position.


That's the next one to watch in the Caribbean islands area.
What does the CLP5 model do again?
2860. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
825 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011




..sounding discussion...
No problems with this mornings flight. This mornings profile shows
ample moisture. Saturated from the surface through 880mb. Precipitable water is up
to 2.5 inches indicating the potential for very heavy rainfall in
a few spots. Storm motion is only 1kt. Mean low level winds from
the surface to 5k feet is west at 5kt. From 5k through 30k feet the
winds are light and variable. Temperature inversion from 880mb to
850mb. This mornings sounding indicates the potential for
waterspouts today.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 358 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011/


Short term...
upper high centered over OK and North Texas will begin to build toward
eastward and be over the Carolinas by Friday. Southeast la and S MS will
continue to remain on the southern periphery of the upper ridge
with a weak middle level shear axis across the region. A weak middle
level disturbance is forecast to migrate westward along the shear
axis today and tonight. Combination of shear axis...and deep
moisture...precipitable water in the 2.25 inch range...should
allow showers and thunderstorms to become numerous across the
region by early afternoon. With deep moisture in place will
mention locally heavy rainfall in the forecast. Certainly
localized drainage issues could occur, but will not issue Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to lack of defined synoptic scale
forcing. Expect activity to diminish during the evening hours with
only isolated activity after midnight. Daytime temperatures will reach
around 90 before shower and thunderstorm development limits
further temperature increase.


Long term...


After tonight...attention turns to tropical system in the Yucatan
Channel area. NHC has upgraded development chances to 70 percent
as of 2am as sytem is an area of reduced shear. Positioning of
upper ridge as it builds eastward will be critical to course of
system...steering system on a general west-northwest course. With uncertainty
on development and track...will keep chance of rain in the chance
category for Thursday and Friday. Will also maintain scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday night across
the coastal regions. Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS shows significantly drier
air eventually moving into region behind the system...occurring as
early as late Friday and certainly on Saturday as the upper high
rebuilds over the region.


As we move into early next week...the upper high becomes positioned
across Kansas and OK with southeast la and S MS again far enough to the southeast
for disturbances moving around the east side of the upper high to
affect the region. In addition a weak surface boundary moves into
the southeast United state providing additional focus for thunderstorm
activity. Have kept rain chances in 40 percent range. Temperatures
should be near normal as thunderstorm activity limits afternoon
heating.

2861. Patrap
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
What does the CLP5 model do again?


CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model)


CLP5


Statistical (baseline)

The Clips series models past climatology..
2862. Levi32
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
What does the CLP5 model do again?


It shows the climatologically favored track for this time of year for a system of the current strength and position. It is a reference only - not a model.
Quoting Levi32:


That's the next one to watch in the Caribbean islands area.


Have you seen the one in the Eastern Atlantic? Definitely something to watch. And it has model support too.
There are 5 scheduled flights tomorrow into 90L.

Recon should just have taken off.
Quoting Patrap:



The Clips series models past climatology..


Quoting Levi32:


It shows the climatologically favored track for this time of year for a system of the current strength and position. It is a reference only - not a model.


Thank you both.
2867. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:


That's the next one to watch in the Caribbean islands area.
Hello Levi. I was wondering if you saw the CMC 850 vort map..It has a classic Cape Verde storm from the wave that entered the Atlantic 2 or 3 days ago...Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There are 5 scheduled flights tomorrow into 90L.

Recon should just have taken off.


5?!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There are 5 scheduled flights tomorrow into 90L.

Recon should just have taken off.
Looks like there expecting a TD+ when they get in there.
2870. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


5?!


Yep
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/1200,1800Z A. 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z C. 28/1730Z
D. 23.9N 90.2W D. NA
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/0000,0600Z
B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 28/2000Z C. 28/2215Z
D. 25.1N 92.3W D. 25.1N 92.3W
E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 29/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
C. 29/0800Z
D. 26.4N 94.3W
E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
No doubt in my mind this is a TD
2873. Jax82
I dont see Recon on Google Earth yet, but analyzing the Visible imagery there does appear to be a noticeable spin directly underneath the convection off the NE Yucatan coast. I imagine they will find a closed circulation when they arrive, IMO.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/1200,1800Z A. 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z C. 28/1730Z
D. 23.9N 90.2W D. NA
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/0000,0600Z
B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 28/2000Z C. 28/2215Z
D. 25.1N 92.3W D. 25.1N 92.3W
E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 29/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
C. 29/0800Z
D. 26.4N 94.3W
E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

So 4 low level flights, and Gonzo to get some upper air sampling. Good plan, IMO.
2875. Patrap
Yvw,anytime hh27
2876. JRRP
2877. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


5?!


6-hourly fixes. Gulf of Mexico systems threatening the U.S. get a lot of attention.
2879. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Levi. I was wondering if you saw the CMC 850 vort map..It has a classic Cape Verde storm from the wave that entered the Atlantic 2 or 3 days ago...Link


I have noticed that on both the GFS and ECMWF as well. That wave is just coming off of Africa. The models all show it weakening as it comes west, but it might bare watching.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 28/1200,1800Z A. 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z C. 28/1730Z
D. 23.9N 90.2W D. NA
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/0000,0600Z
B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 28/2000Z C. 28/2215Z
D. 25.1N 92.3W D. 25.1N 92.3W
E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 29/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
C. 29/0800Z
D. 26.4N 94.3W
E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Whoa! That's alot of flights.
Quoting Levi32:


6-hourly fixes. Gulf of Mexico systems threatening the U.S. get a lot of attention.


Ah, okay.
2882. Patrap
Tuesday,Sept 13th 1988 NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter Flight into Gilbert with Dr. Jeff Masters on board.

2883. angiest
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




Thank you both.


I think it is fair to say that if a model doesn't perform as well as CLP5 (that is, shows less sophistication in forecasting track than looking at historically where a storm in a certain place has gone), then the model needs fixing or abandoning.
any thoughts on the front coming off of Florida?
Quoting Levi32:
Circulation looking more and more well-defined with time


At this rate it will be at 100% at 2pm on the TWO.
2886. JRRP
look at the low on this map
Quoting Levi32:


6-hourly fixes. Gulf of Mexico systems threatening the U.S. get a lot of attention.

Thanks. I guess they learned their lesson after all of those catastrophic storms in the last decade.
2890. 7544
looks like the wave at 30 west will be something to watch as some models show it going wnw and north of the islands stay tuned
2891. hcubed
Quoting cat5hurricane:

That's a good point, Pat. We wouldn't want anyone on here to be subjected to reading the 'Climate Change Indicator Link' post 20 times a day on the same blog...


Or getting high temperature readings every hour.

Which reminds me - we haven't seen any high temp posts today. Is the Heat Wave over?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


5?!
we will watch this thing every step of the way and warnings will be up to the minute once both feet are in GOM and underway
2893. hydrus
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
look at the low on this map
That is the low I posted about earlier...It has my attention and 90L as well.
2894. lucreto
Quoting JRRP:


Looks like vorticity is decreasing my predictions may come to pass after all
going to encounter lower water temp.
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
14.55N/55.55W
Quoting nchurricane:
any thoughts on the front coming off of Florida?
The cloudiness is associated with a weak upper level low currently situated off the east coast of Florida.
2899. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.




2900. scott39
ignore
2901. sky1989
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anyone knows when Recon is set to take off? TIA. I think future Don could make Cat3 status before landfall.


Most people do not think that this will amount to much, but I agree with you that conditions are more favorable than they appear. Major status, although unlikely, is a possibility. I have had a bad feeling about this one for two days now, but I may be wrong.
2902. Levi32
Rapid-scan shows a very slow southward drift of the low-level cloud streets over the northern Yucatan, with SSW inflow coming up into the thunderstorm complex east of Cancun. This is not enough to confirm a closed surface circulation. If it's not closed, it's probably very very close by now. Recon will find out, and during the flight we will likely see TD #4, or maybe even straight to TS Don depending on the winds found in that thunderstorm cluster.
Cancun radar. I see nothing remarkable.

Link
2904. lucreto
Quoting islander101010:
going to encounter lower water temp.


Exactly the conditions are combining to make for a fizzle
T.C.F.A.
XXL/INV90/XX
MARK
21.93N/86.29W

2906. Levi32
Dry air ahead in the central Gulf of Mexico:

Why are you guys still on the old blog???
2894/2904: ???
2909. Levi32
The shelf water south of 22N along the coast of the northern Yucatan is very cold. 90L's center likely won't pass this close, but the convection associated with it, which should stay confined south of the center, may suffer as it passes over.

NEW BLOG!!!...Sorry no one anything thats why
Quoting angiest:


No, I live on the west side of Houston, where it is red on the map. Everything out here is still dead (except for irrigation). Bayous are still running low on the west side. In town, where a tad more rain has fallen, things are a little better. Ultimately, though, the biggest impact of the rains has been to green up the beaches of the ponds and tanks. Beaches that were under water until the spring.



I live in West Houston as well and my yard is looking pretty pitiful. Despite the little bit of rain we have had recently it still looks like it is just straw. The reservoir behind my house has lost so much water that the snake sightings began sooner and have been more frequent than usual. I am ready for some rain!!
Quoting 7544:
looks like the wave at 30 west will be something to watch as some models show it going wnw and north of the islands stay tuned


I can never find models for waves like this... can you help with a link? Thanks!
i'm not met, and don't really know what this could mean but in the last few frames of nhc wv loop it seems to me that the dry air that was headed south at a quick pace has leveled off and maybe even started going a bit west. am i seeing this right? can someone elaborate? if i am seeing this right then what effect if any will it have on 90l? tia
Caribbean Update July 27th 2011
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Quoting stillwaiting:
TPA has macdill afb,headquarters of the dep of defence,never will tpa get a sigficant TC landfall,what do you think that nudge into Charlotte hatbor was with Charley????


you're joking, right?
Quoting Levi32:
Dry air ahead in the central Gulf of Mexico:



Yes but that dry air is quickly pulling northwest and doesn't appear to be getting into the circulation. However, there may be some dry level existent in the circulation still because there is an obvious partially exposed low-level circulation just north-northeast of the Yucatan. The total PWAT's are still very high there which leads me to believe its a shallow dry layer sandwiched in there somewhere between the overall high moisture, and that's all it takes to disrupt developing tropical systems.