WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The new NHC director is Bill Read

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:08 PM GMT on January 25, 2008

NOAA announced today that the new director of the National Hurricane Center will be Bill Read, 58, who has served as the center's acting deputy director since August 2007. Previously, he served as director of Houston's National Weather Service office, a post he took in 1992. Bill was called in to work at NHC three times between 1992 and 2005 to help out with hurricane emergencies. Prior to his job in Houston, Bill served in the U.S. Navy, where his duties included an assignment as an on-board meteorologist with the Hurricane Hunters. He began his career in 1977 with the National Weather Service test and evaluation division in Sterling, VA; developed his forecasting skills in Fort Worth and San Antonio, Texas; and, served as severe thunderstorm and flash flood program leader at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver Spring, MD.

I got a chance to speak with Bill this week at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans. I asked him what his focus would be as director of NHC, and he promised to continue the main themes of Max Mayfield, emphasizing hurricane preparedness and education. I asked him what we should do with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes as Category 1 through 5, based on their wind speeds. This scale has obvious limitations, as proved when a weakening Category 3 Hurricane Katrina brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 5 storm to the shore. Bill responded that we absolutely had to keep the Saffir-Simpson scale, since it has proved its usefulness in many situations. Discarding it would cause confusion. He promised, however, to explore ways to improve public outreach efforts and educate people on the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale. I agree with both of these points. Finally, I asked him how he was progressing with the technical aspect of issuing hurricane forecasts. His predecessor, Bill Proenza, was criticized by his staff for not taking an interest in forecasting. Bill Read responded that he was involved in forecasting for all of the tropical storms and hurricanes that occurred in 2007, after his August arrival at the center. In particular, he emphasized how he happened to be on duty the night Hurricane Humberto blew into a hurricane just 18 hours after it formed as a tropical depression. He's definitely experienced some time on the hot seat with that storm! All in all, my impression is that the new director will fit in much better at NHC than Bill Proenza did, since Read is less of an outsider. He is a good listener, easy to talk to, and a good communicator, traits essential for a successful NHC director. In the coming months, we'll have a chance to see how the new director fits. I'm optimistic that Bill can become a top-notch NHC director, and wish him well in his mission.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks doc and congrats to bill read i am sure if using maxs approach will be very successful as director
Welcome, Bill Read.
Great update Dr. Masters. I think that Bill Read will do an excellent job as NHC Director. Let's hope he restores unity in the NHC.
Welcome aboard, Bill Read! We're all glad to have you!
Tropical Depression 08R Update 3
Southwest Indian ocean

Issued 1800 UTC 25 Jan 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08R almost at tropical storm intensity located near 14.1S-44.8E, moving towards the south-southwest. Estimated surface winds have increase to 35 knots with a corresponding pressure of 997 mb. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near 30C at a dept of 60 m and wind shear ranges from 5 to 20 knots.

Center fix was based on a microwave pass taken by the SSMI sensor aboard the DMPS satellites at 1603 UTC and a QuikSCAT pass around 1515 UTC. The low level close circulation (LLCC) is just north of Samboa Point on Western Madagascar . Surface winds were estimated using QuikSCAT and Dvorak analysis. QuikSCAT showed only one uncontaminated wind barb of tropical storm force but Dvorak intensity based on curve band analysis revealed CI 2.5 or 35 knots and a pressure of 997 mb. Surface synoptic reports were not much help here as they are scarce and well removed from the center. Infrared imagery revealed excellent outflow and banding mainly in the eastern quadrants. Though cloudtops have warm recently in the cold cloud cover (CCC), there are still signs of tropical development like the extension of the curve bands, upper level warm-core and the gradient winds in the troposphere. Conditions should remain favorable for development in the near term as the system continues southwestward and then southeastward into Southern Madagascar. Beyond 48 hrs it is uncertain whether the system will still be enable to hold.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1200 UTC 97SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-141S-447E

Large upper level cold low in the eastern pacific

corrected location in first paragraph from "W" to "E"
Things are becoming more ominous late this weekend concerning the huge ocean storm.Southern New England's chances for a major storm are increasing with each model run.


.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY SEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER. A MAJOR OCEAN STORM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY S OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THREATENS TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS...HIGH SEAS...BEACH
EROSION...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TO COASTAL EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES BLOCKING FACTOR
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY ULTIMATELY DECIDE WHETHER THIS IS GLANCING BLOW
OR A FULL FLEDGED STORM HERE WHICH WE WONT CONFIDENTLY AND RELIABLY KNOW
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND.
It has been upgraded from 08R to Moderate tropical Storm Fame.
Tropical Cyclone 13S just designated, looks like I nailed everything but the winds and pressure. I was a little too conservative.

13SNONAME.40kts-993mb-141S-448E

I have changed the format of the site after noticing some viewing problems users of some browsers may have with it.

Atlantic Hurricanes

That storm NEwxGuy noted would seem alot more ominous if it were 100 miles further west...
YES! Hooray for the NHC decision!
have changed the format of the site after noticing some viewing problems users of some browsers may have with it.

Atlantic Hurricanes

That storm NEwxGuy noted would seem alot more ominous if it were 100 miles further west...

I agree,but whats scary is that the runs are edging more west each day,will be able to tell better this weekend.Earlier this week it was going to have no effect.
Hey, we have a new director! Great news. Read sounds like a good guy for the post...
Great update, Dr. Masters! I really hope Bill Read is successful as the new Director...
I hope so too after all the dissension last year. Lets all hope for a quiet season!

On another note, it looks like snow and ice will be getting quite close to me tomorrow!
Look at the low dewpoints at Macon and Atlanta---if enough precipitation can fall into that, it should cool off enough for frozen precipitation to make it to the surface there.
The storm off the California coast which now encompasses a large area of the central eastern Pacific appears to be merging moisture from three jets-the two branches of the Polar jet, and the subtropical jet presently knifing across the Mexican coast. The northern jet continues to pump down Arctic air over the ocean, creating ocean effect-type convection. The southern branch is pulling up moist air from near Hawaii, while a kink in the subtropical jet has in the past few hours begun to bulge up along the west coast toward southern California. Rain is presently falling at the rate of 1/2 inch per hour in the SF Bay area.
The water vapor image for the storm off the California coast shows what appears to be an eye at the center of the vortex.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/WR/WV4.GIF
Moderate Tropical Storm Fame Update

Quikscat and other satellite derived winds indicate that winds have increase to 50-55 knots. Estimated surface pressure is down to 990 mb. There are signs that the system is developing faster than expected like the newly observed CDO pattern. Global models have been trending on a more northward landfall near Central Madagascar.

That apparent eye is now visible on the Pacific-wide vapor image.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=mtr&area=west&type=wv&size=28
Tropical Disturbance 09R

Fame is now equivalent to an atlnatic cat 1 hurricane with winds of 65 knots

Tropical Cyclone Fame (08R) Update 4
Southwest Indian Ocean

Issued 1430 UTC 26 Jan 2008 by W456

Tropical cyclone Fame has attained hurricane strength in the Mozambique Channel just west of the Northern Portion of the island of Madagascar. The cyclone is located near 14.1S-44.85E, churning nearly stationary. Estimated surface winds have increase to 65 knots with higher gust and minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Sea surface temperatures are 31C and wind shear is estimated to anticyclonic at 5-10 knots.

Center position was carefully positioned using high-resolution visible imagery with some help from synoptic reports on the periphery of the storm. Visible imagery showed a tight core of fast moving (intense) cumulonimbus clouds with suggests the cyclone is intensifying. Dvorak visible analysis showed a curve band arc of about 1.05, which corresponds to CI 4.0, or 65 knots and 976 mb (see figure below). Multiplatform satellite winds indicate these winds extend outwards to about 21 nmi. The warm-core and upper level anticyclone is well established and the cross-equatorial outflow channel and banding features to the north and east has really ventilated the system. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hrs as indicated by digital Dvorak analysis. Thereafter, models are indicating a weakening trend up until landfall in 48 hrs on the Northern Coast of Madagascar.

TRMM measurements indicate rainfall amounts could be has high as 6-12 inches. Wave models show a storm surge of about 5-10 ft. The cyclone is expected to affect a sparsely populated region of Madagascar and so structural damage should be minimal to moderate.

By W456

JTWC Stats
1200 UTC - 13SFAME.65kts-974mb-141S-447E

Bill Read best of luck in 2008 we hope you too can provide consistent updates like Dr.Masters and other bloggers do. Enjoy Miami Beach while your at NHC too beuatiful place! Congrats and good luck with the hype that is Hurricane Season!
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 09R [1002 hPa] located near 14.1S 44.7E or 1255 kms northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported moving south-southwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 14.4S 61.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 15.7S 60.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 17.0S 58.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Addition Information
--------------------
Convective activity has now consolidated and organization in the west of an elongated low level circulation center. Last MeteoSat7 imagery shows several exposed little vortex but animation makes it able to locate a main low level circulation center. Despite a globally favorable environment, moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear does not permit a rapid intensification within the next 24 hours. Most NWP deepen a significant low at medium range.
In convnetional infrared imagery, the center of 09R can easily be misplaced.



Microwave imagery corrects this and showes the center east of most of the convective mass. In a case like this we are using still images. If you loop the infrared imagery above it can also correct the problems of still images.

RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
12.0S 179.0E - 20 knots 1004 hPa
Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Advisories
=============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fame 08R [982 hPa] located near 14.3S 44.8E or 1335 kms west-northwest of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 80 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds within 20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds and very rough seas within 40 NM from the center.

Near Gale-Force Winds and rough sea within 50 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the northern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 16.1S 44.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)
48 HRS: 19.0S 46.5E - 30 knots (Depression Overland)

Addition Information
--------------------
Intensification has slow down in the latest hours due to the so long stationary position. Severe Tropical Storm Fame could restart its intensification a sit should track globally southward within the next hours.

System #2
------

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 09R [1002 hPa] located near 12.0S 62.5E or 1225 kms northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported moving south at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 14.0S 62.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.2S 61.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 16.5S 59.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Addition Information
--------------------
System remains ill defined as seen in SSMI Microwave imagery. In latest hours, convection has flared up just west of the low level circulation center. Moderate northeasterly wind shear is currently affecting the system. As it will continue to move on a generally south-southwest track on the north western side of the subtropical ridge, shear should lessen a little bit allowing some further intensification.
I know that we are in a La Nina pattern but with the weather (west coast and here in Florda) over the past month it sure seems like El Nino to me. I guess this tells me that there are no absolutes in weather patterns.
RSMC Nadi

Tropical Disturbance Summary 1800z 26Jan
========================================
At 18:00 UTC, Tropical Depression 12F [1004 hPa] located near 12.4S 179.4W. Position POOR based on infrared imagery and surface observations. A cyclonic circulation persists from the surface up to 500 hPa with an upper short wave trough to the west. TD 12F is located within a low to moderate vertical wind shear with sea surface temperatures around 30C. Convection around 12F has improved over the last 12 hours. Dvorak Intensity yields T1.5 with a wrap of 0.3 on LOG10 Spiral. Global models has picked up the system and moves it southwestwards with little intensification within the next 24 to 36 hours.

The potential for this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.
98S/09R looks cool

ya Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is in effect for 09R/98S.

JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
it also looks good on Dvorak IR Intensity estimates having a well define curve band arc of 0.50 or CI 2.5, 35 knots, 997 mb. The cyclone exactly matches T 2.5 seen on Model Expected T-no or MET.

I know that we are in a La Nina pattern but with the weather (west coast and here in Florda) over the past month it sure seems like El Nino to me. I guess this tells me that there are no absolutes in weather patterns.

You're absolutely correct....now try and get the climate modelers to believe that!
34. clwstmchasr 4:41 PM EST on January 26, 2008
I know that we are in a La Nina pattern but with the weather (west coast and here in Florda) over the past month it sure seems like El Nino to me. I guess this tells me that there are no absolutes in weather patterns.


If la niña is supposed to result in lower than normal precipitation, your comments are correct for the Bahamas also. This is the rainiest January we have had in years. We've had at least a trace of rain here on 10 of the last 14 days, when normally the statistic would be the converse - 10 / 14 days WITHOUT rain . . .

On Bill Read's appointment:

I guess we mostly felt he'd get the job after his move last year. Perhaps a similar "trial period" should have been applied in the previous appointment . . . :o)

I'm with those who are hoping his appointment will lead to a more settled environment at NHC . . .
I asked him what we should do with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes as Category 1 through 5, based on their wind speeds. This scale has obvious limitations, as proved when a weakening Category 3 Hurricane Katrina brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 5 storm to the shore. Bill responded that we absolutely had to keep the Saffir-Simpson scale, since it has proved its usefulness in many situations. Discarding it would cause confusion. He promised, however, to explore ways to improve public outreach efforts and educate people on the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

I don't know if I agree with this. I believe there is room for revision of the SSS, even if it is only along the lines of adding a letter after the number to indicate size of storm (or possible wave heights or movement speed). If the Fujita scale could be revised effectively, I'm sure the S-S could be too.
Southwest Indian Ocean Advisories
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fame 08R [982 hPa] located near 15.1S 44.4E or 1320 kms west-northwest of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 80 knots. The storm is reported moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds within 20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds and very rough seas within 40 NM from the center.

Near Gale-Force Winds and rough sea within 50 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
12 HRS: 16.2S 44.5E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.5S 44.9E - 50 knots (Depression Overland)

Addition Information
--------------------
Intensification has slowed down in the latest hours, due to the so long stationary position. Severe Tropical Storm Fame is now tracking globally southward and should make landfall near the area of Cap Saint Andre later today or tonight. There is however still potential for this system to reach tropical cyclone stage before landfall.

System #2
------

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 09R [1000 hPa] located near 12.6S 62.5E or 1170 kms northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported moving south at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------

12 HRS: 13.5S 62.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.2S 62.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropical Moderée)

Addition Information
--------------------
System organizes slowly.. It should keep on tracking globally southwards today then southwestwards. On the northwestern egde of the subtropical high pressure it should move at a slower speed by that time. Gradual intensification is forecasted.
I think it would be simple to revise the Saffir-Simpson scale. Just put an L, M, or S after the number. Cat2L would be a large category 2 storm, Cat5S would be a small, compact category 5 storm. The size has an enormous implication in the amount of storm surge and the area affected. Large, medium, or small would be easy concepts for the public to grasp.
caffinehog i really like your idea about the saffir scale. And i agree the size of a storm does play a big part with the tracking and path of a storm and the storm surge . Lets just hope we won't have to use the scale that much this year. It's good to see everyone again :)
The JMA has size categories for their tropical cyclone.. maybe NHC and other RSMC will pick it up.
hadesgodWyvern that would be nice
Southwest Indian Ocean Advisories
RSMC Reunion Warnings
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09R [997 hPa] located near 12.9S 62.5E or 1145 kms northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving south at 4 knots

Near Gale-Force Winds within 30 NM from the center extending to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------

24 HRS: 14.2S 62.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropical Moderée)
48 HRS: 15.8S 60.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.6S 58.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)

Addition Information
--------------------
Position has been made with peristence. It may need to be relocalized later today. System is currently tracking towards a mid latitude trough located south of 25S and along 57E. Within the next 24 hours, the trough should slide away and the system should be steered on a more southwestward track as it will be on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. However, this motion should be at a lower speed as the system will be under the opposite influnece of a southwestern flow generated by a mid tropospheric ridge developing northwestward.

As this lower motion is well seen by most of NWP models, there is some dispersion on how strong the system will recurve its track. UKMO and ECMWF have the most different solutions. UKMO almost tracks the system westward and ECMWF more south-southwestwards. Present forecast is closer to the ECMWF solutions and in good agreement with solutions provided by U.S. models. Easterly shear is decreasing, so gradual intensification is forecasted.

System #2

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fame 08R [976 hPa] located near 15.4S 44.4E or 1305 kms west-northwest of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 85 knots. The storm is reported moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds within 30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds and very rough seas within 40 NM from the center.

Near Gale-Force Winds and rough sea within 60 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the northeastern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
12 HRS: 16.4S 44.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.0S 45.0E - (Depression Overland)

Addition Information
--------------------
Convective activity has intensified near the center, due to the restart of deplacement over warmer sea surface temperatures. Intensity is now at 60 knots for this advisory and still has the potential of becoming a tropical cyclone before landfall.

Low level circulation center is tracking southward toward the northwestern Malagasy coastline where landfall is forecast this evening or in the night south to Cap Saint Andre. Severe Tropical Storm Fame is undergoing steering flow of mid-level highs in its northeast. After that, there is some dispersion in NWP solutions.. One as UKMO bring the system back over the Mozambique Channel and the other bringing the system over the eastern coast of Malagasy.. As Fame remains a small system, offical forecast calls for dissipation over the high mountain region of Malagasy by 48 hours.
51. JLPR
wow its so quiet here =P
greetings to everyone =D
Good Morning. Its 43F in Baytown and it is supposed to get up to 65F here today. I hope it does! Yesterday it did not rain for the first day in 6 days!
Tropical Cyclone Fame (08R) Update 5
Southwest Indian Ocean

Issued 1400 UTC 27 Jan 2008 by W456


Tropical Cyclone Fame (08R) makes landfall on Northeast Madagascar. The eye of Fame came ashore about 1 hour ago and is now located near 16.4S-44.9E moving towards the south-southeast. Estimated surface winds are now 80 knots and minimum central pressure is estimated to be near 966 mb. Sea surface temperatures prior to landfall were 32C and wind shear is anticyclonic below 5 knots.

Visible imagery through 1330 UTC showed the eye of Fame made landfall around 1300 UTC with Dvorak estimated winds of 90 knots and a minimum central pressure of 954 mb*. Since then, the winds have estimated to decrease slightly to 83 knots based multiplatform satellite winds. These winds exist within an 18 nmi radius tight core around the eye. The nearest station, 67037, located south of the landfall point at 16.6S-44.4E did not report any winds but reported a pressure of 982.4 mb. Overall, the system remains well define with a long outflow jet extending to its north and west. The warm-core and upper level anticyclone remain intact at this moment. Fame will dump up to 10 inches of rain according TRMM measurements. Structural damage should be minimal to moderate due to the sparsely populated region and the fact that the most intense winds are confined to a small area. Global models take this system across Madagascar, emerging back over water in about 72 hrs. By then, most models indicate that 09R/14S will merge into the remnants and deepen into a significant system in the South Indian Ocean.

by W456

*
Eye Pattern at 1300 UTC
Surrounding Gray Shade Code - W - White - E 6.0
Infrared Eye Adjustment - Eye Temperature was B - Black and Surrounding Shade was W - White - -1.0

E 6.0 - EADJ 1.0 = 5.0 = 90 knots, 954 mb.

JTWC Stats:
1200 UTC 13SFAME.80kts-963mb-155S-443E

tc fame really reminds of how slow frances moved. When fame moved slow all yesterday
yeah...i was looking at fame on MMIC it neva budge for more than 12 hrs yesterday. When it got deeper now....the steering became more define.
57. JFV 11:50 AM AST on January 27, 2008
Frances was certainly one hell of a beast when she came across central Florida, wouldn't anyone agree?


I dont live in the US but I wud say from Media reports and tracking the cumbersome giant...i wud agree.
JFV i totally agree with you. i can still remember being in her eye for like 5 hours.
Views of Coastal Storm



this is going to be some in to watch today could the strong cold front come down from the N meet up with the t-storms comeing from the S ????


www.wunderground.com/blog/LowSnow/comment.html?entrynum=0&tstamp=200712
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front is clearly seen pushing across the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico with thin frontal ropes and scattered cloudiness within 180 nmi of the front from the Bay of Campeche to the Southern Florida Peninsula/Florida Straits. The associated 1023 mb high-pressure system appears to be established over the Deep South providing fair weather and overcast to broken areas of fog and cumuliform low clouds. Meanwhile, in the upper levels (200 hpa), large ridge is over the Rockies while an upper trough has its axis along the Eastern Sea board. This is putting the Southeast United States within the right exit region the upper ridge where upper level confluence and mid-upper dry is providing further tropospheric stability. These winds are also driving mid-upper level cloudiness from Texas across the Gulf and into the Atlantic.

An extratropical low-pressure storm is located near 38N/69W. This system is supporting a cold front, which enters the forecast region at 33N/70W and goes along 28N/75W and through the Florida Straits. Numerous moderate to heavy cloudiness and showers are within 120 nmi of the frontal boundary...which includes the extreme Northern Bahaman Islands. A thin shallow layer of cloudiness accompanies another frontal boundary that has abruptly stalled out across the Atlantic from Santo Domingo to 28N/50W.

by W456
G'day, all.

I'm finding FAme interesting, since that area of the Madagascar's coast is not the usual landfall point for cyclones (further north or south on that side seems to be more of a trend, if I recall correctly). It would be interesting to find out whether there is a discernable trend of landfall locations with a correlation to ENSO . . .
All in all, my impression is that the new director (Bill Read) will fit in much better at NHC than Bill Proenza did, since Read is less of an outsider. He is a good listener, easy to talk to, and a good communicator, traits essential for a successful NHC director.


....exactly. Last year, I think a few of us communicated those criteria were essential for good leadership at the NHC. Proenza just did not fit the bill.
Hey 456,

If this front comes through on schedule, we'll have yet another wet and windy Monday - the 3rd this month. This has been the rainiest January we've had in a long time. The rains haven't necessarily been torrential, but they have persisted in a way I don't associate with January. Dec-Jan-Feb (sometimes also March) is usually the dry period here. I also don't associate this in my mind with La Niña conditions.

It just goes to show we have lots more to understand about weather . . .
Hey, MLC. In retrospect, I wonder how seriously Proenza wanted the JOB (as opposed to the POSITION).

Nothing to worry about in the tropics so thought i'd post a small loop of the system of the eastcoast. Take care and have a great sunday.



www.AdriansWeather.com
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The upper level pattern across the region has flattened out with westerlies dominating. At the surface, the typical tradewind regime dominates producing 4-7 ft seas across most parts and 11 ft seas around the Colombian Coast. ROABS and satellite imagery continue to show a tropospheric pattern of dry air from 700 mb to the stratosphere above low-level patches of tradewind moisture. The most pronounce moisture lies along the windward slopes of Central America where orographic lifting is evident on 700 mb omega charts. In other words, it%u2019s a beautiful day across the region.


by W456


Webcam shot from Christiansted Harbor/Boardwalk cam from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

hey Baha......it also has been unsually wet here in the Leewards. Who eva heard of rain in January. This winter is rather unsually. Flooding in every continent on the equator and major snow falls.
h23 thanks 4 the loop
66. BahaHurican 5:54 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
Hey, MLC. In retrospect, I wonder how seriously Proenza wanted the JOB (as opposed to the POSITION).


Baha, hey! Sounds like you've been getting your share of rain! Proenza seemed to lead like a bull in a China shop - stuff gets broken, and so it did! Maybe now the center can fluently function. I like Read as he comes from within the forecasting world, unlike Proenza who seemed to emerge out of bureaucracy. The spirit and mission of forecasting should be the driving principle that remains at the heart of the NHC imo.
what did porenza do before they gave him director job last year



AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271739Z - 271945Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
MONTEREY...APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WHERE A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER CONTRIBUTED TO UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE POINT OF OCCLUSION OF A WEAK OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE OCCLUDING PROCESS CONTINUES...AND THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS/LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...THE STORMS
PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN AN ARCING BAND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION...ON
INTO THE PACIFIC. WHILE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE DRY SLOT
BETWEEN COUPLED POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NOW...IT APPEARS A SECONDARY CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER...ROUGHLY 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VANDENBERG
AFB...COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.
THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG COASTAL AREAS NEAR/EAST OF SANTA
BARBARA INTO THE OXNARD VICINITY...BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING TOWARD
THE LOS ANGELES BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
AND...OROGRAPHICALLY BACKED WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES
MAY ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 01/27/2008
December and January are part of the wet season in southern Africa primarily due to the southward seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (or ITCZ) during the Southern Hemisphere summer. In addition to the regular rainy season, during La Nina, which is currently on going, this area is expected to see enhanced rainfall. Another factor is a 30-to-60 day oscillation known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

When I saw that Mozamique was flooded, I figured it had something to do with La Niña. The last really bad flooding they had was, if I remember correctly, during a La Niña year. Hopefully they won't get hit by any cyclones this year. The storms that hit that area tend to do so in the latter part of the season, after the heavy summer rains have already saturated the ground. Plus Mozambique is the flood plain for at least some of the major Southern Africa rivers, particularly the great Zambezi.
72. hahaguy 6:24 PM GMT on January 27, 2008
what did porenza do before they gave him director job last year


Bill Proenza
thanks moonlightcowboy
72. hahaguy 1:24 PM EST on January 27, 2008
what did porenza do before they gave him director job last year


He worked for NOAA, but in a more administrative position. I got the impression he started off forecasting, but hadn't done any real "hands on" stuff for a long time. I think he was too used to the "I'm in charge" way of thinking to really fit in at NHC. Even without trying he would have put a lot of backs up.

I still think he himself didn't have a clue what is really needed from a NHC director. I have a feeling it takes a lot more tact than he could muster . . .
i'm really enjoying the peace and quiet in the blog. But we can expect all those wishcasters coming back in a few months lol.
Does anyone remember if Read was in the original list of candidates? I mean from 2006.
i don't think he was but correct me if i'm wrong.
I think the wishcasters are taking a vacation from the stress.

But if they WERE here, they'd be forecasting Fame to hit Mozambique . . . LOL
lol
just about that ya
Dec-Jan-Feb (sometimes also March) is usually the dry period here. I also don't associate this in my mind with La Niña conditions.

Effects of La Nina; because of how it has developed (rather late and still strengthening months after they normally peak, with some areas now down to 3°C below average), the current La Nina may not be having the impacts in the times shown here (for example, cold in China and the Middle East, normally during the summer and also normally wet in the Caribbean during the summer):



I'm in again, on dialup this time. A line of showers moved in about 40 minutes ago and my power went out almost immediately. I take back the "not torrential" part of my earlier comment; there are several cats and dogs that just fell from the air . . . . Dunno how much longer the power will be off, but my laptop battery is just about gone.
i'm pretty sure she was still a cat 2
yes i am . 3 canes in a yr rough stuff
yes it was. After frances i felt relieved then 2 weeks later mrs jeane had to come. I was just like here we go again. Us here in port st lucie havn't had a cane in long time then it seemed like 2004 was our yr unfortuantly
god i hope not. but only time will tell.I'm going to be watching that high all season though.
don't you live in florida as well?
Check out this pic by katy99780just added to WU galleys. Throwing hot water into -48º air. In the discription there is a link to them doing it on a Google video.
Evening all.

To all the SoFlo bloggers: have your temps dropped substantially today? I'm wondering if this is it as far as the front is concerned, or if we are going to get some more cold air tomorrow.

That E Coast storm is looking pretty good, BTW. Wonder if NJ will get some snow out of it, or only rain.
baha my temps have dropped about 10 to 15 degrees today
Moderate Tropical Storm Gula (09R) Update 1
Southwest Indian Ocean

Issued 0000 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Moderate Tropical Storm Gula (09R) is located near 14.8S-63.4E, moving slowly towards the south. Estimated surface winds are near 45 knots and minimum central pressure is near 991 mb. Wind shear is estimated to be around 10-15 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 30C.

If it ever had a cyclone that tested tropical met skills, Gula is the one. I have tried every possible thing to locate the center. Most products like AMSU, satellite-derived variables at the CIMSS, synoptic reports, QuikSCAT, MIMIC, WINDSAT and conventional imagery were either outdated, not available, or no help. The center was later based on the cloud system center in Dvorak enhanced infrared imagery, which I do not really like because the circular central cold cover (CCC) obscured the center and pattern of evolution. Winds and pressure were estimated using peripheral synoptic reports and satellite based winds. The cyclone consists of an intense CCC with banding mainly to the north. The system is moving over an area of high ocean heat content and relatively low winds shear. Furthermore, the cyclone is showing signs of development with the formation and extension of the gradient level winds and upper level warm-core. Most global models deepen Gula as it tracks towards the southwest on the periphery of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC - 14SGULA.45kts-989mb-143S-627E

Looks like things are picking up in the Indian Ocean. The end of January is like end of July for us, right?
i would say so baha. if anyone wants to join me i'll be in the tropics chat
April is the end of their season which is like November for us.

March - October
February - September
January - August

One should note, thier season is not exactly opposite to ours. They have variations....just like us with our second peak in early Oct.
haha i wud join but i have to go.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Overland, Ex-Fame 08R [N/A hPa] located near 17.5S 45.0E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The storm is reported moving southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Near Gale-Force Winds and rough sea within 20 NM from the center along the northwestern coastline of Malagasy

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 19.8S 48.2E - 20 knots (Overland)
48 HRS: 20.4S 50.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.2S 52.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Addition Information
--------------------
Fama has temporarly reached tropical cyclone minimal stage just before landfall earlier today near Besalampy. It is now expected to rapidly weaken within its trip over Malagasy due to its small size. The residual low could go back over seas within the next 24-36 hours on the eastern Malagasy coastline between Toamasina and Farafangana. It could also reach tropical depression stage again.

System #2
------

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gulu 09R [995 hPa] located near 14.9S 61.7E had 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported moving south-southwest at 8 knots

Gale force winds within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 30 NM from the center extending to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------

24 HRS: 15.3S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modere)
48 HRS: 16.6S 58.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.3S 56.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)

Addition Information
-------------------
The mid-level trough slide away and system seems to begin recurving its track. It should keep on tracking globally west-southwestward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. slowing down strongly beyond to 36-48 hours, the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken allowing the system to accelerate southwestward in front of a trough in the southwest. Easterly shear is decreasing, so gradual intensification is forecasted.

System is expected to be under the high level ridge tomorrow evening. A more clearly intensification phasis should also begin.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
===============================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 12F [992 hPa] located near 16.8S 179.3E. Position GOOD based on radar, Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar/Visible Imagery with Animation and Peripheral Surface Observations. Depression moving southwest at 10-20 knots with a 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 80 knots.

Low level circulation center over land along southern coastline of Vanuia Levu. Organzation improving significantly past 6-12 hours. Outflow good to east but still developing elsewhere. Interaction with Vanua Levu landmass is hindering intensification. Depression moving southwest under deep-layer mean northeast steering flow.

12F moving into minimal shear region. Global model generally agree on further southwest then west track with intensification. Potential for 12F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO MODERATE/HIGH
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gene Category One [990 hPa] located near 17.0S 178.7E. Position FAIR based on Hourly Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar/Visible Imagery with Animation and Peripheral Surface Observations. Cyclone is now moving southweast at 11 knots and intensifying slowly. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 to 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 18 hours.

Gale-Force Winds within 80 miles from the center in southern semi-circle and 60 miles from the center in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
--------------------
24HRS: 18.9S 174.5E - 45 knots [CAT 1]
48HRS: 16.2S 169.4E - 60 knots [CAT 2]

Additional Information
-----------------------
Organization significantly increased overnight with cold convection about the low level circulation center. Intensification arrested somewhat by interaction with viti Levu and Vanua Levu. Outflow good to east and developing elsewhere. CIMSS shows minimal shear over system. Cyclone lies under 250HPA ridge axis with diffluence flow.

Dvorak based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 Spiral yields 2.5, Thus T2.5/2.4/D1.0/24 HRS.

Global models agrees on southwest track with slow intenisification

---
RSMC Nadi accidently wrote that the pressure was as low as 930 hPa, Oops LOL
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Advisories
===========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression Overland Ex-Fame 08R [N/A hPa] located near 18.1S 46.5E had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: --

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 19.9S 50.2E - 25 knots (Dissipating)
36 HRS: 19.1S 51.6E - (Dissipated)

Addition Information
-------------------
Ex-Fame residual vortex is still obvious on the satellite imagery over Madagascar. This vortex could go back at seas within the next 24 hours but at a minimal stage

System #2
------

RSMC Metro France - La Reunion

TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE GULU 09R
15.0ºS 62.6ºE - 45 knots 987 hPa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gulu 09R [987 hPa] located near 15.0S 62.6E had 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The storm is reported moving south-southwest at 4 knots

Gale force winds within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 35 NM from the center extending to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
24 HRS: 15.5S 61.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.8S 59.2E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.2S 56.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Addition Information
-------------------
Relocated center east of the 0000z estimated center thanks to the SSMI at 0035z

Deep convection has consolidated and system has organized as a curved band pattern. Environment is favorable to intensification as the system is located under the upper level ridge and as upper divergence is good. The system should track southwestward under the main steering influence of the subtropical ridge, but this should at first be quite slow down by the effect of an upper level high located in the northwest of the system. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge weakens and the system should accelerate south-southwestward.
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 2

Issued 1000 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 15.5S-62.4E moving towards the west-southwest. Estimated surface winds are near 55 knots and minimum central pressure 984 mb. Wind shear is near 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 30C.

The low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Gula became easier to locate with available visible imagery. Surface winds were estimated using clear-cut visible Dvorak estimate, which is showing a 1.00 curve band around the LLCC, which gives it a rating of CI 3.5 or 55 knots, 984 mb. Visible imagery revealed Gula has developed an outflow band to its southeast, and AMSU showed the upper level environment has warmed. Furthermore, the cyclone has taken on more cyclonic curvatures and curve banding in the past 6-12 hrs, which are all indicators of a development tropical cyclone. Most global models continue deepen Gula as it tracks towards the southwest on the periphery of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 14SGULA.55kts-982mb-155S-627E






Sunday, January 27, 2008
Stormy Period Ahead with Heavy Snows for Many Especially Central
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

A very stormy few weeks is in the cards as another regime change takes place. La Ninas are notoriously fickle unless they are super strong, We have a moderate La Nina ongoing and a fair amount of variability as I am sure you will agree from a very cold start in early December easing to more seasonable but very snowy conditions. A briefly bitter cold start to January gave way to a record second week warm spell. Frigid air returned in week 3 concentrated in the central states. It has moderated this weekend in the central and will by early week with some rains in the east but another shot of cold will be felt this week mainly across the north.

Intraseasonal variability can relate to episodes of high latitude blocking events (not a factor this year, at least not yet) and to a phenomenon known as the Madden Julian Oscillation; CPC has an excellent FAQ section here that answers questions about this phenomenon. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology tracks this phenomenon closely as it affects the probability and timing of rainfall events there. Tropical forecasters track it for timing enhanced tropical activity in summer and fall. Other forecasters look at it in winter to time stormy periods for the west and central United States and temperature fluctuations elsewhere.

We are entering a phase of the MJO that favors a series of storms for the west and central states that will bring very heavy snows to many areas there (focused mainly on the Midwest in areas like Des Moines, IA, Chicago IL and Madison, WI). You will see stories in the news about these snow events through the next few weeks. These storms will ride up through the northeast but those storm track usually mean rain for the east with the exception maybe in some events for the higher elevations up north and west (northern New York and northern Vermont). With time (in a few weeks) the storm track will shift east and assuming there are bullets left in storm gun, the east would get its shot at more snows, in time for ski areas to recover for the important President’s Day week.

Posted on 01/27 at 09:45 AM


Joseph D’Aleo was the first Director of Meteorology at the cable TV Weather Channel. He has over 30 years experience in professional meteorology. Mr. D’Aleo was Chief Meteorologist at Weather Services International Corporation and Senior Editor of “Dr. Dewpoint” for WSI’s popular Intellicast.com web site.
Vort,
That's an interesting article,the La Nina is certainly making for a lot of changing patterns.Put on your seat belt,its going to be a bumpy ride the rest of the winter.
Glad you liked it NE.
D’Aleo is about as good a forecaster as there is today.

I agree....buckle up tight......this winter is just getting started!
thanks storm.
La Ninas are notoriously fickle unless they are super strong, We have a moderate La Nina ongoing

That might throw a wrench into his forecast... it is super-strong, not moderate:




For comparison, the strongest La Nina on record (possibly the former strongest if the current one keeps strengthening - and months after they are supposed to peak, only one has ever peaked in February before and it was a weak La Nina):

1988 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0
1989 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007 TU24;orb=1
tu24 astroid has a strong magnetic field and earths has begone to react with bowing afftect toward the south.
This may cause a weather disruption for 2 weeks or so which could cause record cold for northern hemispher.
It could also be bad for electrical stuff like computors cell phones and gps signals.
A strong magnetic plume was detected over Africa and has caused big problems for gps signals.
I would ask the good doctor his opinion on the magnetic field disruption and earths weather
usgs site.http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/barrow/
alot of different sites for other studies.http://geomag.usgs.gov/customers.php



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS...

...MS/OH/TN VALLEY AREA...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS
EWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER
THE MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AN
INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FRONT INVOF IL...WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF
THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
ACROSS E TX AND MID 60S ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD/NEWD THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A REMNANT LEE TROUGH. LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH
AS FAR N AS THE SRN IL/INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500 J/KG. DESPITE THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG BELT OF
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED INVOF THIS FRONTAL
CONVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. IF CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW
SOME SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE RESULTANT STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS AR. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD SPREAD EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
ACROSS E TX TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED ALONG THIS BAND...WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT LIKELY
LIMITED TO THE SRN FLANK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS MS/AL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 01/28/2008
118. hurricanedave 11:26 AM CST on January 28, 2008
tu24 astroid has a strong magnetic field and earths has begone to react with bowing afftect toward the south.


Dave, where did you get this information? I couldn't find anything about tu24's magnetic field through Google and Google News. The possible effects of near-Earth asteroids on the weather seems like a fascinating study.
realtime magnetic field opps.http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/barrow/
I have never seen this much activity .
http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/preliminary_data2.php
Thanks for the update Vort!
Venturing through some gravity bookmarks.. Wow..(not for a dial up user)
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 3

Issued 2200 UTC Jan 28 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 15.3S-62.0E moving towards the west but slightly south of due west. Estimated surface winds maybe a little higher but stands at 65 knots with a pressure of 976 mb. Wind shear is below 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 27C.

The center was place using total precipitable water mosaics at CIMSS, which someone suggested I use and works pretty well. Other tools extrapolated were QuikSCAT and microwave imagery. The embedded center pattern seen dvorak B-D curve enhancement revealed the center is within -31 to -41C of deep cloud overcast which gave it a CI of 4.0 or 65 knots, 976 mb. However, model expected T-no or MET and multiplatform satellite winds showed the cyclone is approaching CI 4.5. These winds extend outward about 16 nmi. There is an eye feature suspected under the cold overcast as seen on microwave imagery but my hunches are telling me the location of the eye is wrongly shown. The warm core has expanded and upper outflow is evident in infrared imagery, along with burst of really intense thunderstorms. The cyclone is expected to continue towards the southwest and move into a region of relatively warmer ocean heat content as it approaches the islands of La Reunion and Maurice. This should allow the system to sustain hurricane intensity up until then.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 14SGULA.70kts-970mb-147S-618E




This is part of the warning we (runners) received prior to last year's Boston Marathon:
FORECAST:
The most up-to-date weather forecast calls for a predicted Spring storm on Monday, including heavy rains (potentially 3 to 5 inches), with the start temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. Wind will likely be East (in the face of the participants for most of the race) in the 20 to 25 mile per hour range, with gusts to as much as 50 miles per hour. This will produce a wind chill index of 25 to 30-degrees Fahrenheit.

Doesn't that sound like fun?

At the last minute it warmed up (not as much as the Chicago Marathon).

With this year's LaNina, according to the CPC, the weather for the 112th Boston Marathon on Monday, April 21, 2008
looks to be about normal temp for Boston, with a slightly better chance of being wetter. See you there!


Too lazy to type stuff.
Jan. 18 - The Galeras volcano in southeastern Colombia erupted, spewing hot rock and ash, but causing no injuries.

The more than 14,000 foot volcano sits on the border region with Ecuador. Over the past years, it has registered several eruptions, including a 1993 blast that killed 10 people.

Deborah Lutterbeck reports




Evening 456,

Looks like the SA volcanos have been pretty active of late. That's the third one along the west coast in the last 6 months, if I'm remembering correctly. Makes u wonder if something larger scale is going on.
Hi BahaH me too.
Greetings to all the rest online.
maybe tectonic plates happen to be more active than normal.
Im glad the NHC has a Director they can be proud of.After the Public suffered last year with that embarrasing fiasco...we deserve better .
Hey Pat,

Here's hoping the 2008 season will be mainly about hurricanes, and not other, more metaphorical storms . . . . lol

What do u think about the Saffir-Simpson comment?
pat i totally agree with you . we finally have someone who is compitant enough
Hey Shen. I'm so tired I'm tarred.
Question TOTALLY unrelated to weather:

Why is we can spell tectonic and fiasco, but not their and though?

Sheesh.
Im not up tp speed much on things as Ive been off line and medicated, LOL But Im sure the season will be here soon enuf. Hopefully the Basin will have a slow year again. Im all for a New Hurricane rating scale. But thats a debate for when I have abetter grip on my health. Healing is hard work.
On the quest for some astroid/magnetic field info~ came across a new system for tracking planes in the fog. Apparently planes slightly change the earth's magnetic field as they travel though & they've found a way to keep up with the planes by following that change.

There's this.. Near Earth Asteroid 2007 TU24 Will Make a Close Approach on January 29, 2008 Weather permitting, should be close enough to see.

Oh here we go~ YouTube about this doomsday...
if this asteroid where to hit earth where do you think it will hit??? i am not puting doom day on any one but i this like to no if it where to hit earth where would the asteroid hit you think not that i want it to hit
Tropical Cyclone Gula (09R) Update 4

Issued 0800 UTC Jan 2008 by W456

Tropical Cyclone Gula is located near 14.5S-61.2E, moving slightly south of due west. Estimated surface winds are near 90 knots and minimum central pressure is at 954 mb. Sea surface temperatures are near 29-30C and wind shear is 5-10 knots.

The eye of Gula has become more pronounce in the last 12 hrs on visible imagery, which was helpful in fixing the center position. Dvorak classification estimates range from CI 5.0 to CI 5.5 due to conflicting results from Dvorak Infrared and Visible Techniques. Intensity estimates could stay at 5.0 for now. The cyclone continues to move within a region of favorable upper level winds and warm sea surface temperatures. There are two outflow channels which are helping the system to ventilate and the warm-core to warm. The eye remains rather ragged and became a little clouded-in the past hour, which is maybe holding back intensity. Despite this, the cyclone is still forecast to intensify further becoming an Intense Tropical Cyclone in 24 hrs time, according to the RSMC La Reunion. The forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to continue southwestward around a deep layer ridge in the South Indian Ocean, coming close to the Islands of Reunion and Maurice - close enough to threaten them.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 14SGULA.80kts-963mb-147S-615E




if this asteroid where to hit earth where do you think it will hit??? i am not puting doom day on any one but i this like to no if it where to hit earth where would the asteroid hit you think not that i want it to hit

I think the asteroid was supposed to come near (don't know how near) the earth today. Obviously, this has not happened, and my brother found a site saying that this asteroid would not harm earth, despite what the YouTube video says, because of several reasons. I don't have the site anymore though. :/
NASA Scientists Get First Images of Earth Flyby Asteroid
January 25, 2008

Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., have obtained the first images of asteroid 2007 TU24 using high-resolution radar data. The data indicate the asteroid is somewhat asymmetrical in shape, with a diameter roughly 250 meters (800 feet) in size. Asteroid 2007 TU24 will pass within 1.4 lunar distances, or 538,000 kilometers (334,000 miles), of Earth on Jan. 29 at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time).

"With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week's 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century," said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project. "It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years."

Scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL have determined that there is no possibility of an impact with Earth in the foreseeable future.

Asteroid 2007 TU24 was discovered by the NASA-sponsored Catalina Sky Survey on Oct. 11, 2007. The first radar detection of the asteroid was acquired on Jan. 23 using the Goldstone 70-meter (230-foot) antenna. The Goldstone antenna is part of NASA's Deep Space Network Goldstone station in Southern California's Mojave Desert. Goldstone's 70-meter diameter (230-foot) antenna is capable of tracking a spacecraft traveling more than 16 billion kilometers (10 billion miles) from Earth. The surface of the 70-meter reflector must remain accurate within a fraction of the signal wavelength, meaning that the precision across the 3,850-square-meter (41,400-square-foot) surface is maintained within one centimeter (0.4 inch).

Ostro and his team plan further radar observations of asteroid 2007 TU24 using the National Science Foundation's Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico on Jan. 27-28 and Feb. 1-4.

The asteroid will reach an approximate apparent magnitude 10.3 on Jan. 29-30 before quickly becoming fainter as it moves farther from Earth. On that night, the asteroid will be observable in dark and clear skies through amateur telescopes with apertures of at least 7.6 centimeters (three inches). An object with a magnitude of 10.3 is about 50 times fainter than an object just visible to the naked eye in a clear, dark sky.

Scientists working with Ostro on the project include Lance Benner and Jon Giorgini of JPL, Mike Nolan of the Arecibo Observatory, and Greg Black of the University of Virginia.

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers, characterizes and computes trajectories for these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet. The Arecibo Observatory is part of the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, a national research center operated by Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., for the National Science Foundation. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

For more information, visit http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov .
Good Morning. I see you Northerners are expecting some chilly days ahead. Minus 20 ?? Sounds dread to me. Its a lovely morning here, with no sign of anything but sun and gentle breezes all day long. Oh well, you people stay warm, if you can. LOL
The asteroid was suppost to come near earth about 3:33 Am this morning, Earth is safe.
Yep. The rock missed us. But the worst is still to come. The exhaust fumes from its engines. Not to mention all the stuff that the life-forms on board throw out of the windows, like chicken-and-chips boxes, plastic drink containers and suchlike. Its all in the slipstream, and will be here in 1 hr 34 mins. Watch out !
Did my comment about a potential hurricane text messaging service post yesterday or not?
I don't see it up here.
New blog is up