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The March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: one EF-4, 39 deaths

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on March 05, 2012

A blanket of snow 2 - 4 inches deep fell yesterday on the regions of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky pounded by deadly tornadoes on Friday, adding to the misery of survivors. The violent tornado rampage killed 39 and injured hundreds more, wreaking property damage that will likely exceed $1 billion. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 21 and 12 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one each in Alabama and Georgia. The scale of the outbreak was enormous, with a preliminary total of 139 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to Northern Florida. The National Weather Service issued 297 tornado warnings and 388 severe thunderstorm warnings. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak, and an area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings. Tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Video 1. Spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. You can see small satellite vorticies rotating on the side of the main vortex.


Video 2. Another video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012, taken from a gas station.

The deadliest and most violent tornado: an EF-4
The deadliest and most violent tornado of the March 2, 2012 outbreak was an EF-4 with winds up to 175 mph that demolished much of Henryville, Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, Indiana. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a weaker EF-1 tornado hit the town. The twin tornadoes killed twelve people. The Henryville tornado was the only violent EF-4 tornado of the outbreak.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the two tornadoes that hit Henryville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. The first (rightmost) hook echo on the reflectivity image belonged to the only violent tornado of the outbreak, an EF-4 with winds of 166 - 200 mph. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a second tornado hit the town. These tornadoes also caused severe damage to the towns of Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, and killed twelve people.

At least eleven other tornadoes in the outbreak have been classified as EF-3s with winds of 136 - 165 mph. Capitalclimate.com reports that the EF-3 tornadoes that crossed three Eastern Kentucky counties were the first tornadoes that strong ever observed, since tornado records began in 1950. The deadliest of the EF-3 tornadoes hit West Liberty, Kentucky, killing eight. Here's a summary of the deadly tornadoes of the outbreak taken from Wikipedia:

EF-4, 12 deaths, Henrysville, Indiana
EF-3, 8 deaths, West Liberty, Kentucky\
EF-2, 5 deaths, East Bernstadt, Kentucky
EF-3, 4 deaths, Crittenden, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Holton, Indiana
EF-3, 3 deaths, Peach Grove, Ohio
EF-3, 2 deaths, Blaine, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Salyersville, Kentucky
EF-2, 1 death, Jackson's Gap, Alabama


Figure 2. Damage in West Liberty, Kentucky after the March 2, 2012 EF-3 tornado. Image taken from from a Kentucky National Guard Blackhawk helicopter, while landing in West Liberty, KY (Morgan County).


Figure 3. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky EF-3 tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado carved a 60-mile-long path through Eastern Kentucky, causing extreme damage in West Liberty. The tornado killed six in West Liberty and two near Frenchburg. At least 75 people were injured. It was the first EF-3 tornado in Eastern Kentucky since 1988.


Video 3. A woman prays for deliverance of West Liberty as the ominous wall cloud of the developing tornado approaches the town.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. NWS damage surveys have not yet determined if one of the tornadoes from the outbreak has beaten the record for the fastest moving tornado, the 73 mph forward speed of the great 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.


Video 4. A family gets in their car in an attempt to flee the Borden, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Unless you know what you're doing, fleeing a tornado in a car can be extremely dangerous, especially when the tornadoes are moving at speeds of 50 - 70 mph, as many were doing during the March 2, 2012 outbreak. Most tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes and cars.

Largest 5-day and 2nd largest 2-day tornado outbreak for so early in the year?
The March 2 tornado outbreak spawned 128 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports as of 8 am EST March 7 from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. An additional 11 tornadoes (preliminary) touched down on March 3, in Florida and Georgia; 3 additional tornadoes touched down on March 1 (Wikipedia does a great job tallying the stats for this tornado outbreak.) These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but a few delayed reports will likely come in, bringing the total number of tornadoes from the March 2 - 3 outbreak to 115 - 125, propelling it into second place for the largest two-day tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five two-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year, since record keeping began in 1950:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
March 2 - 3, 2012: 139 tornadoes (preliminary), 39 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the five-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 is likely to eclipse the late January 18 - 22, 1999 five-day tornado outbreak (131 tornadoes) as the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 4. A key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of warm, moist air near the surface, which helps make the atmosphere unstable. On the day of the March 2, 2012 outbreak, record warm air surged northwards into the tornado formation region, setting or tying daily high temperature records at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Ingredients for the tornado outbreak
This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere--warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.


Figure 5. The other key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of very strong winds aloft that change speed and direction sharply with height. This change of wind imparts a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. Here, we see the upper-level wind speeds at the peak of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. The jet stream can be seen as the U-shaped belt of strong winds. Jet stream winds in excess of 100 mph (deep blue colors) were present over the tornado outbreak area in this analysis of data from the NOAA North American Model (NAM) from 7 pm EST March 2, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Another bad year for tornadoes in the U.S.--what's going on?
Last year's tornado season was incredibly severe, and we are off to one of the worst early-season starts to tornado season on record now in 2012. However, it is too soon to ring the alarm bells on climate change being responsible for this. The tornado data base going back to 1950 doesn't show an increasing trend in strong tornadoes in recent decades. While climate change could potentially lead to an increase in tornadoes, by increasing instability, it could also decrease them, by decreasing wind shear. I'd need to see a lot more bad tornado years before blaming climate change for the severe tornado seasons of the past two years. One thing that climate change may be doing, though, is shifting the season earlier in the year. The 5-day total of tornadoes from February 28 - March 3 will probably break the record of 131 set in 1999 for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. Warmer winters, and an earlier arrival of spring due to a warming climate, will allow tornado season to start earlier--and end earlier. This year's early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate. I have a more extensive article on this subject that has just been published by Weatherwise magazine, and a 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? Dr. Jonathan Martin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is doing interesting research on the type of situation we saw with some of the recent severe tornado outbreaks, when two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet and the subtropical jet, merge to form a "superjet." In a December 2011 interview with sciencedaily.com, he said: "There is reason to believe that in a warmer climate, this kind of overlapping of the jet streams that can lead to high-impact weather may be more frequent."

I don't see any storm systems coming over the next 10 days that could cause a major tornado outbreak, though March weather is too volatile to forecast reliably that far in advance. There is a storm system expected to develop on Thursday in the Plains we will have to watch, but so far, indications are that it will not be capable of generating a major tornado outbreak.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity reports that volunteers from colleges and churches made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois on Sunday. Team Rubicon and Portlight will push east to Indiana, where volunteer work is still restricted because of gas leaks and continuing SAR (search and rescue) operations.

I'll edit this post with new stats on the tornado outbreak as they become available, and have an entirely new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters
Tornado
Tornado
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville. Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
3/2/12 Tornado
3/2/12 Tornado
A tornado in Dodsen Brach TN.
High Risk
High Risk
Rotating wall cloud and a possible funnel yesterday, north of Evansville, IN.
tornado damage 3/2/12
tornado damage 3/2/12
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
Tornado Damage - TN
Tornado Damage - TN
I uploaded this photo once already and it was rejected for having the wrong date. I explained before, but I will explain again. The tornado came through March 2nd but I had just gotten out of the hospital, so I didn't get out to take pictures of the damage until today. This is five miles from my house in Hamilton County, TN.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

that's 1 to 4, i.e., 1 in 5
Question:

You all are familiar with the X-ray solar output monitors... (for instance, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html)

The first thing to note is that output varies by piles of factors of ten.

What I am wondering is, are there other similar sites for other angstrom levels...?

Thanks in advance!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This looks similar to the event that effected Nashville back in 2010.  
Hope not. We took a beating.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I will gladly take it. we need a flood before the summer arrives to bring up the lake levels and etc.
This is true. Aquifers are way low.
Quoting Chicklit:
Morning, Everybody!
It's windy as heck here in ECFL.
It is here too. The wind-borne dust is giving me a headache.
That area near 15S 100E is what the ECMWF, NOGAPS and GFS have been forecasting to develop for the past few days. GFS develops in 48 hours, NOGAPS and ECMWF wait till after 120 hours.
Same here in the Houston Tx area.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It is here too. The wind-borne dust is giving me a headache.

Looks like widespread strong to severe weather on the 8th and 9th? Not to mention widespread persistent rains. 2 to 3 day event of maybe .75 to 1 inch per 12 hours...

I think most places involved needs the rain anyway, but not severe weather.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This looks similar to the event that effected Nashville back in 2010.  
From Wiki.The May 2010 Tennessee floods were 1000-year[1] floods in Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, south-central and western Kentucky and northern Mississippi areas of the United States of America as the result of torrential rains on May 1 and 2, 2010. Floods from these rains affected the area for several days afterwards, resulting in a number of deaths and widespread property damage.[2]

Two-day rain totals in some areas were greater than 19 inches (480 mm).[3] The Cumberland River crested at 51.86 feet (15.81 m) in Nashville, a level not seen since 1937, which was before the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers flood control measures were in place. All-time record crests were observed on the Cumberland River at Clarksville, the Duck River at Centerville and Hurricane Mills, the Buffalo River at Lobelville, the Harpeth River at Kingston Springs and Bellevue, and the Red River at Port Royal.[4]Several rainfall records in the Nashville area were broken during the rain event. 13.57 inches (345 mm) fell during the two-day period of May 1–2, doubling the record of 6.68 inches (170 mm) set in September 1979 during the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Frederic. On May 2 alone, 7.25 inches (184 mm) of rain fell, including 7.20 inches (183 mm) during a 12-hour period and 5.57 inches (141 mm) in a 6-hour period, eclipsing records set on September 13, 1979. The event also set a record for wettest May on record, surpassing the record set in May 1983 with 11.84 inches (301 mm).[4][6]

Heavy rain also affected large portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southern Kentucky. In Arkansas, over 5 inches (130 mm) fell in the Little Rock area, up to 8 inches (200 mm) in West Memphis and over 10 inches (250 mm) in northeastern Arkansas closer to the Mississippi River. Similar amounts were recorded across western and southern Kentucky where over 7 inches (180 mm) fell in the Hopkinsville area and up to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Missouri Bootheel. In addition to the heavy rain, moist air and ample instability contributed to the generation of multiple tornadoes affecting the same areas, which killed five persons: four in Mississippi during the early hours of May 2, and one in Arkansas during the evening of April 30
Notice the small high pressure area in the Atlantic. jk.
Quoting hydrus:
Notice the small high pressure area in the Atlantic. jk.


If that high is strong by Hurricane Season,upwelling of the waters will not allow for tropical developments,unless NAO goes negative.Also anything that may form in the MDR goes west.
The CMC has been consistently showing a huge rain event. If this were to happen, it would most likely be a serious.
Quoting hydrus:
From Wiki.The May 2010 Tennessee floods were 1000-year[1] floods in Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, south-central and western Kentucky and northern Mississippi areas of the United States of America as the result of torrential rains on May 1 and 2, 2010.


That makes me chuckle every time I read something like that.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That makes me chuckle every time I read something like that.


I hadn't realized that Tennessee was settled in 1012.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If that high is strong by Hurricane Season,upwelling of the waters will not allow for tropical developments,unless NAO goes negative.Also anything that may form in the MDR goes west.
We are going to have a weird hurricane season. If El-Nino arrives early, which is feasible, it will have an affect on the peak months. If it arrives late, things could get real interesting. I get concerned during the neutral phases...There are many other factors besides the ENSO cycle, but neutral plays a significant role... This is my harmless opinion. Here is Dr.Masters blog from April-7 of last year.....Hi everybody, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters.

A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued April 6 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is nearly identical to their forecast made in December, which called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1996, 1955, and 2006. The first four years listed all had neutral to La Niña SST's during hurricane season, while 2006 had El Niño SST's. The average activity for these years was 12.6 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 4.8 major hurricanes.

This year, the forecasters have introduced a new statistical model for their April forecasts. There are four components in this model:

1. Average sea-level pressure in March around the Azores in the subtropical Atlantic.

2. The average of January through March sea-surface temperatures (SST's) in the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa.

3. Average sea-level pressure in February and March for the southern tropical Pacific ocean west of South America.

4. Forecasts of September's SST in the tropical Pacific using a dynamical model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

The first two components are loosely linked together. Statistical studies have shown that a weaker subtropical high near the Azores, combined with warmer SST's off the coast of Africa in March are associated with weak winds near the surface and aloft from August to October. This decrease in wind speeds reduces wind shear which can disrupt forming storms. These March conditions also are associated with warmer SST's in August to October, which is also favorable for more tropical storms. For this forecast, the first component is strongly favorable for increased hurricane activity, while the second component is weakly negative.

The last two components represent the changes in sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure that are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Briefly speaking, El Niño conditions (warm sea-surface temperatures) are not favorable for Atlantic hurricanes. For more info on ENSO and hurricanes, Jeff has this article.

Using the ECMWF model as guidance (see Figure 1), the CSU group believes that SST's in the tropical Pacific will be neutral (less than 0.5°C from normal). This would have a small negative effect on hurricane activity. However, the tropical Pacific sea-level pressure shows that the atmosphere looks like a La Niña event is still going on. This is strongly favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity in the CSU group's model.

Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in March 2011. The ECMWF forecast used by the CSU group is represented by the dark orange square. The forecasts for August-September-October (ASO) show that 5 models predict El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America ( the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

How accurate are the April forecasts? While the formulas used by CSU do well in making hindcasts--correctly modeling the behavior of past hurricane seasons--their April hurricane season forecasts have had no skill in predicting the future. This year's April forecast is using a new system and has not yet produced a verified forecast. The scheme used in the past three years successfully predicted active hurricane seasons for 2008 and 2010, but failed to properly predict the relatively quiet 2009 hurricane season. A different formula was used prior to 2008, and the April forecasts using that formula showed no skill over a simple forecast using climatology. CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I hadn't realized that Tennessee was settled in 1012.


You don't necessarily need a 1000 year record to estimate a 0.1% chance flood. But seriously... we have maybe 100yrs of data on the Cumberland River. And climate/land-use has not stayed constant over that time frame. I'd argue that even with 100yrs of data, we are stretching it to calculate "50-100yr" (more accurately called 1-2%) flood events.
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC has been consistently showing a huge rain event. If this were to happen, it would most likely be a serious.


Yeah, um, widespread 40CM (16 inches!) over a huge area during a 144hr time period.

That would be epic if it happens.

That's like tropical storm Lee, only over possibly a bigger area: Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, TX, LA, Mississippi, all get in on a lot of rain.

GFS is only saying about a third to half as much.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I hadn't realized that Tennessee was settled in 1012.


It was settled.... By Native Americans....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It was settled.... By Native Americans....


That were constantly moving and kept no historical record
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That makes me chuckle every time I read something like that.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I hadn't realized that Tennessee was settled in 1012.


tennessee was settled in like...after 1700. which is 300 years roughly.

How the heck do you git a 1000 year record, when it aint even close to been founded for that long? LOL
Low level lapse rates still going up....doesn anybody know f a site that measures low and mid level lapse rates down to 1? SPC doent go below 5...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


You don't necessarily need a 1000 year record to estimate a 0.1% chance flood. But seriously... we have maybe 100yrs of data on the Cumberland River. And climate/land-use has not stayed constant over that time frame. I'd argue that even with 100yrs of data, we are stretching it to calculate "50-100yr" (more accurately called 1-2%) flood events.
You're entitled to your opinion, of course--but there are clearly a number of people at NOAA who disagree with you. ;-)

1,000 year flood

rain

The very best scientific estimate is that rainfall events of the magnitude of the one that happened in Tennessee in May, 2010, have just a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year there. Now, I see several people here erroneously suggesting that a 1,000-year rainfall event is somehow the same as a 1,000-year-old record being broken. Such a false assumption is understandable, as the wording of the phrase "X year event" can be confusing to someone who hasn't studied just what it means. But that can be remedied with a little study, I think...
gee it is SLOW today
TX needs this

Quoting Neapolitan:
You're entitled to your opinion, of course--but there are clearly a number of people at NOAA who disagree with you. ;-)

1,000 year flood

rain

The very best scientific estimate is that rainfall events of the magnitude of the one that happened in Tennessee in May, 2010, have just a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year there. Now, I see several people here erroneously suggesting that a 1,000-year rainfall event is somehow the same as a 1,000-year-old record being broken. Such a false assumption is understandable, as the wording of the phrase "X year event" can be confusing to someone who hasn't studied just what it means. But that can be remedied with a little study, I think...


To be honest, I doubt that those doing the analysis disagree with me regarding the uncertainty - it's probably more like they agree that there are huge error bars, but they needed to come up with a best guess anyway despite that uncertainty.

It is widely understood that the smaller chance event you try and calculate, the higher the error bars. With a "50-100yr"/1-2% event, it is mostly curve fitting with a small amount of extrapolation. "100-500yr "/<1% events are almost entirely extrapolation. These curve fitting and extrapolation estimates are heavily biased by the largest few events, and dry/wet periods can provide an incorrect result. I've been working with them recently to try and get the latest intensity climatology data. Looks like it may have changed even since the original documents from the 1960s and 1970s, yet we come up with statistics over periods longer than that. I respect their effort to make a best guess with very limited data, but perhaps I disagree with some in how useful or applicable such guesses are. Especially in a rapidly-changing climate, such measures become increasingly meaningless.
Good day...wats up everyone?
Quoting RitaEvac:
TX needs this


No, it really doesn't. That won't cure the drought. Most of that would just run off and cause severe flooding. There reaches a point where rainfall amounts are so great that drought severity is near moot, you will have flooding. And when the water runs off in a flood, it isn't being soaked up by the soil in a way that helps vegetation.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I hadn't realized that Tennessee was settled in 1012.
Tennessee has very old human remains. Over 20,000 years old. Which is older than the Clovis remains . very significant find.
Quoting nigel20:
Good day...wats up everyone?
Long time since I saw you post...Rain is coming.:)
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No, it really doesn't. That won't cure the drought. Most of that would just run off and cause severe flooding. There reaches a point where rainfall amounts are so great that drought severity is near moot, you will have flooding. And when the water runs off in a flood, it isn't being soaked up by the soil in a way that helps vegetation.

Agreed.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No, it really doesn't. That won't cure the drought. Most of that would just run off and cause severe flooding. There reaches a point where rainfall amounts are so great that drought severity is near moot, you will have flooding. And when the water runs off in a flood, it isn't being soaked up by the soil in a way that helps vegetation.


Yes, it really does. You are failing to grasp the situation in TX. Reservoirs and Lakes and aquifers have tanked to historical levels to even beyond historical levels.

It must flood. There isn't any vegetation left it died last year, so the hell with vegetation, fill the state with water
Quoting nigel20:
Good day...wats up everyone?


notin much jus hangin out. slow today, maybe you could bring some life to the blog(but if you accomplish that by suggesting climate change crap or politics, dont bother) :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


notin much jus hangin out. slow today, maybe you could bring some life to the blog(but if you accomplish that by suggesting climate change crap or politics, dont bother) :D
I think it was much colder when Ford was president..
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yes, it really does. You are failing to grasp the situation in TX. Reservoirs and Lakes and aquifers have tanked to historical levels to even beyond historical levels.

It must flood. There isn't any vegetation left it died last year, so the hell with vegetation, fill the state with water


If most of it runs off like it does during a flood, it wont be able to recharge the aquifers. Reservoirs will be faced with forcing through water to prevent flooding or structure loss, at the expense of losing water supply. It might help certain water supplies when compared to having no rain at all, but in many places the bad could outweigh the benefit. Several steady, light-moderate rain events would but what it really needs.

Trust me, as a hydrologist, I do grasp the drought situation in Texas. Texas needs rain... but not a flood nearing Nashville magnitude.
Quoting hydrus:
Long time since I saw you post...Rain is coming.:)

Yeah...I was a bit busy with school matters, so I didn't have much time to post...how have you been?
A pi$$ ant soaking rain that doesn't fill up lakes, etc... with water is moot when your trying to survive by having water on hand. If man really tried to control this, he'd fail, because he would be dropping pi$$ ant rain instead of filling the lakes with a flood that animals and man need to survive on day to day. Man is stupid, and will always pay the price.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If most of it runs off like it does during a flood, it wont be able to recharge the aquifers. Reservoirs will be faced with forcing through water to prevent flooding or structure loss, at the expense of losing water supply. It might help certain water supplies when compared to having no rain at all, but in many places the bad could outweigh the benefit. Several steady, light-moderate rain events would but what it really needs.

Trust me, as a hydrologist, I do grasp the drought situation in Texas. Texas needs rain... but not a flood nearing Nashville magnitude.


Yes, SE TX has already had it's soaking rains from late fall up to now,
Quoting SPLbeater:


notin much jus hangin out. slow today, maybe you could bring some life to the blog(but if you accomplish that by suggesting climate change crap or politics, dont bother) :D
Not much weather related activity is going on at the moment, so the blog will be slow
Nature knows what is best, doesn't listen to anything, does what is natural, and a flood is what it will do in TX when it's ready. Knowing exactly what the lands need to recover. Doesn't care about your property, house, car, and all the other junk man has built on the land. When it's decided, your job is to survive it, if not....called natural selection.
FYI, gotta bowling bowl low pressure in the middle of the Atlantic
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If most of it runs off like it does during a flood, it wont be able to recharge the aquifers. Reservoirs will be faced with forcing through water to prevent flooding or structure loss, at the expense of losing water supply. It might help certain water supplies when compared to having no rain at all, but in many places the bad could outweigh the benefit. Several steady, light-moderate rain events would but what it really needs.

Trust me, as a hydrologist, I do grasp the drought situation in Texas. Texas needs rain... but not a flood nearing Nashville magnitude.


Oh we need a flood here. A lot of SE Texas gets their water supply from the lakes (Lake Houston supplies almost all of Houston except for well water in the far suburbs). The Lake levels need to be brought up from the "run off".

I have lived in Houston almost all of my life and we have usually had a bad flood every 5-10 years. We haven't had one since 2000. We are definitely due for one. And coming right after the worst drought in history, I will gladly welcome it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


If most of it runs off like it does during a flood, it wont be able to recharge the aquifers. Reservoirs will be faced with forcing through water to prevent flooding or structure loss, at the expense of losing water supply. It might help certain water supplies when compared to having no rain at all, but in many places the bad could outweigh the benefit. Several steady, light-moderate rain events would but what it really needs.

Trust me, as a hydrologist, I do grasp the drought situation in Texas. Texas needs rain... but not a flood nearing Nashville magnitude.


TX handles floods and disasters better than the other 49 states, we're tougher, better and reason why we were our own country
March 5 2011
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah...I was a bit busy with school matters, so I didn't have much time to post...how have you been?
Extremely busy. I am glad to hear you were in school.
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Quoting nigel20:
Not much weather related activity is going on at the moment, so the blog will be slow


That will change come Friday and into the weekend if this massive rain event pans out!
A wind advisory has been issued for Puerto Rico. These strong winds are caused by a strong High Pressure to our north.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..

PRZ001>010-012-013-VIZ001-002-070730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0002.120307T0600Z-120308T0700Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
328 PM AST TUE MAR 6 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM AST
THURSDAY...

A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

* TIMING...THIS STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SOME BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES...AND SOME SMALL TREES
BLOWN OVER. MINOR WINDS DAMAGE POSSIBLE...PRIMARLY TO WEAKENED
TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Oh we need a flood here. A lot of SE Texas gets their water supply from the lakes (Lake Houston supplies almost all of Houston except for well water in the far suburbs). The Lake levels need to be brought up from the "run off".

I have lived in Houston almost all of my life and we have usually had a bad flood every 5-10 years. We haven't had one since 2000. We are definitely due for one. And coming right after the worst drought in history, I will gladly welcome it.


Everybody talking about only needing soaking light/moderate rains, the damn water system is gone, gotta have a flood to get that back up...to survive!
Quoting RitaEvac:


TX handles floods and disasters better than the other 49 states, we're tougher, better and reason why were our own country


Right on. Most recent proof is Hurricane Ike. Sure a lot of us didn't have power, but it was not even in the news 3 days later because we recovered so fast. We are used to these things.

Now a blizzard... not so much lol
March 5 2012

The southern caribbean SSTs are much colder when compared to 2011, but the GOM is generally warmer when compared to 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Extremely busy. I am glad to hear you were in school.

Yeah...thanks!
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That will change come Friday and into the weekend if this massive rain event pans out!

I'm sure that texas could do with some rain, but not the flooding
Quite warm for the Windy City in February:

Chicago/O'Hare
Lat: 41.98 Lon: -87.9 Elev: 658
Last Update on Mar 6, 1:51 pm CST

A Few Clouds and Windy

67 F
(19 C)
Humidity: 33 %
Wind Speed: SW 26 G 45 MPH
Barometer: 29.88" (1012.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 37 F (3 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History
Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:

Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.

Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?
Right in the middle of Texas's 1950's superdrought, there were two separate rain events that were actually much larger than the Tennessee floods! The first one was a freak storm in September 1952 and the second involved the remains of 1954's Hurricane Alice (the first one :P).

The 1952 event was one of the largest to ever occur in the Texas Hill Country, possibly even exceeding the June 1935 and October 1998 events. Several counties saw totals in excess of 20" with a max of 26" upstream of Austin. The Colorado River surged to a level greater than the typical Mississippi River flow. The flood gouged out the Hill Country, but thankfully was mostly caught by a near empty Lake Travis, which was at a record low that still stands today.

The Hurricane Alice flood in June 1954 dropped possibly over 30" of rain upstream of Del Rio and caused the Rio Grande to barrel along the Texas border as the largest flood ever measured in Texas discharge-wise, with flows greatly exceeding 1,000,000 cubic feet per second! Like the 1952 event, this one was also caught, this time by the newly constructed Falcon Dam, which resulted in the formation of Falcon Lake several years ahead of schedule.
My favorite weather forecaster Frankie MacDonald, hits the nail on the head for the storm last week in Minnesota. <>img src="">

Now Frankie has issued a warning for Colorado. <>img src="">
Im bored.
Read the ads if you're bored. Now it says:

Cuba Travel: discover Cuba through it's people
Quoting nigel20:
March 5 2012

The southern caribbean SSTs are much colder when compared to 2011, but the GOM is generally warmer when compared to 2011


That cool area in the Southern Caribbean is caused by the gale winds from the Colombian low that has been in the area for a while.

Is that laughter or ridicule I hear?
Quoting SPLbeater:
Im bored.


Read a book that you like.
Quoting KeyWestSun:


that doesnt apply to me
Good afternoon... Cold day up here today, but heading near 70 Thursday... Bring on the warmth! CPC says it's on the way

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Read a book that you like.


actually i think im gonna see if the 2 short dudes down the street wanna play football er basketball(whatever)

2 months older then me, 30 pounds and 40 pounds lighter, 6 inches and 5 inches shorter. easy advantage fer me lol.

back l8tr
The day three slight risk of excessive rainfall has been upgraded to a moderate risk as a cold front sags southward for round one of the upcoming heavy rainfall event. The remaining slight risk has also been expanded.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That cool area in the Southern Caribbean is caused by the gale winds from the Colombian low that has been in the area for a while.


OK...didn't know
Quoting SPLbeater:


actually i think im gonna see if the 2 short dudes down the street wanna play football er basketball(whatever)

2 months older then me, 30 pounds and 40 pounds lighter, 6 inches and 5 inches shorter. easy advantage fer me lol.

back l8tr


Good,have some fun.
With 144 unfiltered tornado reports for Friday, (I'm using unfiltered because before we got the unfiltered/filtered option, they were all unfiltered) it was the biggest tornado outbreak since April 27, 2011, surpassing each and every day of the May 21-26 tornado outbreak sequence, which featured the Joplin tornado.

Amazing for early MARCH.





Things are lining up for another huge tornado year over the next few months. I hope everybody is as prepared as they can be...



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With 144 unfiltered tornado reports for Friday, (I'm using unfiltered because before we got the unfiltered/filtered option, they were all unfiltered) it was the biggest tornado outbreak since April 27, 2011, surpassing each and every day of the May 21-26 tornado outbreak sequence, which featured the Joplin tornado.

Amazing for early MARCH.





Things are lining up for another huge tornado year over the next few months. I hope everybody is as prepared as they can be...


So far the 2012 Severe Season has seen 274 Tornadoes,and that is astonishing for being early March.

Link
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:

Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.

Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?


You could have seen that. Dinah started a women's golf tournament in 1972. Several years later (1990?) the tournament weekend and location became a party get-together for women who like women.

It's fairly certain that Dinah was interested in men rather than women. Just a few of the men that she dated included Frank Sinatra, James Stewart, General George Patton.

Apparently the weekend party has grown into a somewhat major event. It's heartening to realize that our country has matured to the point where folks who aren't "the majority" can openly get together and enjoy each others company.

We're getting closer and closer to "equal rights for all"...
Thanks for the background. Just surprised to see such an odd ad on here
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Right in the middle of Texas's 1950's superdrought, there were two separate rain events that were actually much larger than the Tennessee floods! The first one was a freak storm in September 1952 and the second involved the remains of 1954's Hurricane Alice (the first one :P).

The 1952 event was one of the largest to ever occur in the Texas Hill Country, possibly even exceeding the June 1935 and October 1998 events. Several counties saw totals in excess of 20" with a max of 26" upstream of Austin. The Colorado River surged to a level greater than the typical Mississippi River flow. The flood gouged out the Hill Country, but thankfully was mostly caught by a near empty Lake Travis, which was at a record low that still stands today.

Flash flood events in the Hill Country are awe inspiring.

We moved to Austin from Houston just in time for the TS Hermine flood event. I have never seen floods rip through an area quite like that before.
Hurricane Hunters visiting Alaska (where I live)
Link to local news story:
Link
555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?
"

Aww c'mon... That's utterly absurd. It ain't as if anyone would ever prefer sex over watching golf or talking about the day's play in the afterhours.
Quoting akunicycler:
Hurricane Hunters visiting Alaska (where I live)
Link to local news story:
Link
that's awesome!
"They say to think of the earth's atmosphere as a giant swimming pool. Make a splash in one corner and eventually you'll notice the ripples on the other end."
-a systemic understanding of the atmosphere is key.
Quoting nigel20:
March 5 2012

The southern caribbean SSTs are much colder when compared to 2011, but the GOM is generally warmer when compared to 2011
That is so weird how the cold spot looks exactly like the shape of the GOM
Quoting RitaEvac:


Everybody talking about only needing soaking light/moderate rains, the damn water system is gone, gotta have a flood to get that back up...to survive!
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.
Quoting entrelac:

Flash flood events in the Hill Country are awe inspiring.

We moved to Austin from Houston just in time for the TS Hermine flood event. I have never seen floods rip through an area quite like that before.

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"

554) 72 in Spfld, 73 in StL, but very windy red flag day, almost as warm tomorrow. Pretty warm long range too, we'll see. May have to get the cool season garden started!
Quoting nymore:
My favorite weather forecaster Frankie MacDonald, hits the nail on the head for the storm last week in Minnesota. img src="">

Now Frankie has issued a warning for Colorado. img src="">


that guy is really disturbing
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.
Winds here now are 25 to 40 mph, bad hair day. :)
Quoting aspectre:
555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?
"

Aww c'mon... That's utterly absurd. It ain't as if anyone would ever prefer sex over watching golf or talking about the day's play in the afterhours.

i think i am a lesbian too i like girls
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So far the 2012 Severe Season has seen 274 Tornadoes,and that is astonishing for being early March.

Link
274 reports, not actual tornadoes. Usually the actual confirmed number of tornadoes is around 15% lower than the amount reported.
more moistya

George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.
Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Let's see you try to sell a cloud for that much on EBay.


That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Winds here now are 25 to 40 mph, bad hair day. :)



Sigh. Story of my life. ;)
Looks like the models are still way out of agreement. Starting to wonder if this even is going to happen or not...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT A BIT THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. QUITE A BIT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SO WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. MODELS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGER A BIT. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS IS IN
PLAY SO WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOW MORE DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY WILL BUMP POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS KICKS THE LOW TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND IS THE
FASTEST MODEL. THE ECMWF AND CAN REMAIN THE SLOWEST. FEEL THE GFS
IS TOO FAST AND THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT TOO SLOW. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME...
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE IN PHASE AND DYNAMICS CHANGE FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT
ANOTHER S/WV DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY AND
THIS FEATURE COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AGAIN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT WITH THE GFS FOCUSING
RAIN EAST OF THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FOCUSING HEAVY RAIN OVER
MUCH OF SE TX. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. 43
Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Let's see you try to sell a cloud for that much on EBay.

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.


I know, if you aren't from TX, you fail to grasp the situation period.
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much
Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"



You can always look at a dewpoint map and see where the moist air stops abruptly and bumps up against those balconies
Yeah, the 12Z ECMWF offered a slightly different solution than it had been giving previously, which lowers forecast confidence since that was one of the solutions forecasters were leaning on the heaviest. It'll be interesting to see how this shapes up, especially with the CMC getting even more extreme with its forecasted precipitation here.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life.


I'd take it from the moron who bought it and take a bite outta it, then tell him to kiss my a$$
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like the models are still way out of agreement. Starting to wonder if this even is going to happen or not...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT A BIT THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. QUITE A BIT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SO WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. MODELS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGER A BIT. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS IS IN
PLAY SO WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOW MORE DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY WILL BUMP POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS KICKS THE LOW TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND IS THE
FASTEST MODEL. THE ECMWF AND CAN REMAIN THE SLOWEST. FEEL THE GFS
IS TOO FAST AND THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT TOO SLOW. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME...
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE IN PHASE AND DYNAMICS CHANGE FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT
ANOTHER S/WV DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY AND
THIS FEATURE COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AGAIN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT WITH THE GFS FOCUSING
RAIN EAST OF THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FOCUSING HEAVY RAIN OVER
MUCH OF SE TX. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. 43


They tend to be conservative
Here is a comparison of the GFS and CMC daily QPF, just to show how varying the solutions still are.


I don't think they will really have an idea about this until later tomorrow or early Thursday
Lake Charles is actually wavering less in this discussion.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A MOISTENING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOIST LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN DEPTH THROUGH WED WITH A FEW LOW TOPPED STREAMER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX AND CENTRAL LA BY AFTERNOON. ALSO ON
WED... AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SW STATES AND THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
VARY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL BE AROUND THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR BOTH MODELS PAINTS A WET
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME PORTIONS
OF E TX, LA, AND AR. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF... A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO REGION FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
STALL WHILE A BROAD LOW MOVES OUT THE GULF AND ACROSS E TX SAT.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
INTO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"


Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?
Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.

HA, At first I thought it was a gold nugget, not a chicken mcnugget.
Quoting jitterboy:
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much


I think you're looking for the GOES FTP server. I can't remember where it is exactly, but they have some mighty fine imagery available there.
Quoting redwagon:

Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?

Possibly, but I'm not sure yet. There are still many things to be hashed out with this upcoming storm, so alot of the specifics are not known at this time.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Oh we need a flood here. A lot of SE Texas gets their water supply from the lakes (Lake Houston supplies almost all of Houston except for well water in the far suburbs). The Lake levels need to be brought up from the "run off".

I have lived in Houston almost all of my life and we have usually had a bad flood every 5-10 years. We haven't had one since 2000. We are definitely due for one. And coming right after the worst drought in history, I will gladly welcome it.


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)


That's amazing that water climbed back up like that
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)


Yea that is pretty much how it is all over Texas right now. I believe they pumped a whole lot of water out of Lake Conroe into Lake Houston right before winter time to get it back to a "normal" level. Plus the 10" or so of rain we have had since January 1st has helped a lot!
587 aspectre "George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.
Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.
"
588 DavidHOUTX "That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life."

The person who will receive the money does have a better purpose in mind... which is good since the buyer obviously has a certain lack of imagination when it comes to spending money.

602 jitterboy "HA, At first I thought it was a gold nugget, not a chicken mcnugget."

If it were a natural gold nugget, it woulda sold for considerably more. Natural gold nuggets sell for many multiples of the market value for the metal. And a lump that size would weigh a pound or so.
TX needs a good storm come June, good way to start the summer off, help vegetation get a jump and maintain itself into the heat of the summer
Quoting jitterboy:
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much


Several Colorado cities are shown at GOES-East - Central Region WFO Satellite Imagery
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea that is pretty much how it is all over Texas right now. I believe they pumped a whole lot of water out of Lake Conroe into Lake Houston right before winter time to get it back to a "normal" level. Plus the 10" or so of rain we have had since January 1st has helped a lot!


Yes, The City of Houston was drawing from Lake Conroe. They only needed to so for a short period of time and they were only trying to maintain level when they did. They were not attempting to fill Lake Houston with water from Lake Conroe. We got lucky with the rains we did catch here and with enough rain to north to fill Lake Houston again. .... breathes heavy sigh of relief
Quoting redwagon:

Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?
The Austin/San Antonio NWS Office doesn't seem to think so.

Of course the usual low water crossing problem areas will probably get tricky late Thurs/early Fri.


If you want to see some great photos/vid of Hill Country flash flooding search for anything taken in Pedernales Falls State Park. The topography there promotes sudden and violent flash flooding.
Quoting nofailsafe:


I think you're looking for the GOES FTP server. I can't remember where it is exactly, but they have some mighty fine imagery available there.

I think that is it, does it cost money?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Several Colorado cities are shown at GOES-East - Central Region WFO Satellite Imagery

Nice one
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i think i am a lesbian too i like girls
Dinah Shore was not a bad dish either..jmo of course.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Possibly, but I'm not sure yet. There are still many things to be hashed out with this upcoming storm, so alot of the specifics are not known at this time.

Austin wx forecasts have been jumping all over: four solid days of rain and thunderstorms, then back to two 20%ers and one 40%er, as of last night 3-4" looked like a done deal, but the narrative has shifted back to .5 - 2.0".
Quoting hydrus:
Dinah Shore was not a bad dish either..jmo of course.


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
Quoting entrelac:
The Austin/San Antonio NWS Office doesn't seem to think so.

Of course the usual low water crossing problem areas will probably get tricky late Thurs/early Fri.


If you want to see some great photos/vid of Hill Country flash flooding search for anything taken in Pedernales Falls State Park. The topography there promotes sudden and violent flash flooding.

In '96 a train of Tstorms ONLY over Llano went on for days without a drop here in Austin, which raised Lake Travis 14' in one day. I had a helluva time convincing my boss that I REALLY needed to leave to move the dock.
Well, my personal weather records(that date back to 2009 lol) have set a new record for highest pressure recorded in my location!

Previous record high since 09: 30.47in/1031.7mb

New record since 09: 30.64in/1037.3mb

thanx to that ridge sitting over the coastal areas of VA/NC
555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast
?"
584 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "I think I am a lesbian too. I like girls."

For you
Quoting SPLbeater:
Well, my personal weather records(that date back to 2009 lol) have set a new record for highest pressure recorded in my location!

Previous record high since 09: 30.47in/1031.7mb

New record since 09: 30.64in/1037.3mb

thanx to that ridge sitting over the coastal areas of VA/NC

The pressure here is 1037.7 mbar.
As a note..low level lapse rates have stabilized just below 5 here, while the mid levels are still slowly destabilizing. But I aint anticipating any pop up shower activity like Sunday/Monday...neither is the NWS :D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The pressure here is 1038.6 mbar.


My barometer has decreased by a few millibars lately, back down to, say 1035mb. (1037.6mb would equal 30.68 in barometric pressure, FYI lol)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
Yep. Thats what I,m talking about Rook..:)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
Here is the latest CMC run. I dont mind sayin it looks unsettling.Link
Quoting SPLbeater:
As a note..low level lapse rates have stabilized just below 5 here, while the mid levels are still slowly destabilizing. But I aint anticipating any pop up shower activity like Sunday/Monday...neither is the NWS :D


Sunday/monday was not pop up showers it was a low pressure system moving through.
The latest SREF run has the system retro-grading back towards Arizona.Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"



Quoting hydrus:
The latest SREF run has the system retro-grading back towards Arizona.Link

Interesting, that would be much more in line with the CMC's "deluge" solution.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sunday/monday was not pop up showers it was a low pressure system moving through.


for your area. keep in mind I am not in VA

Edit: went and viewed archived radar imagery for my area. there were showers in morning assosiated with low pressure sysstem, them afternoon showers popping up to my south and east. Monday, a few showers did develop in the afternoon around me, and to my west.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Interesting, that would be much more in line with the CMC's "deluge" solution.
I can see already that future forecasts will be at the very least tricky. Especially when there will be a significant flood threat covering a large area.
Irina:


Invest:
Just noticed that there were 144 reports of tornados for the 2nd. Thats quite a bit.
I hope the CMC is wrong . ( it usually does overdue the precip.. And the HPC keeps increasing POPS with this thing..
States currently at least partially under a red flag warning: Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California. That's 19.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just noticed that there were 144 reports of tornados for the 2nd. Thats quite a bit.


those 2 blue ones in central NC are mean.

they woke me up while i was sleeping comfortably lol
Quoting hydrus:
I hope the CMC is wrong . ( it usually does overdue the precip.. And the HPC keeps increasing POPS with this thing..

Indeed, the max was 4.3" yesterday. Why the uncertainty?

A lot rides on this. Like the lake tourism economies of Texas, which was killed dead last year.
Additonally to developing this current S Indian invest, the ECMWF also takes a system into northwest Australia in roughly 10 days. Hmm.
From HGX:



A slow moving upper level low pressure system and a cold front that will likely be slowing as it moves into the region will set the stage for a good shot of rain across the region. The potential for very heavy rainfall may exist on Friday. Confidence in how this system will develop is very low with some computer models indicating the that the front could stall with rains continuing through Sunday and other that the front could eventually move well out into the Gulf on Friday ending the threat of significant rainfall. Stay tuned and as forecast confidence increases the magnitude of rainfall and duration should become more definable.
www.solarham.com

Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 4, 2012


This video presents an on air recording by amateur radio station Frank DH7FB with his 144mhz EME array pointed towards the Sun. During the recording, Sunspot 1429 produced a long duration M2.0 solar flare and this is what he recorded. At 8 seconds into the on air recording, you can hear a sharp increase in background noise level which continues for a while until eventually returning to quieter levels.

Thanks to DH7FB for providing this recording.




NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report]

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
Definitely not saying that this will come true given its time out on the GFS model, but if this were to come to fruition, an Unprecedented outbreak would occur. The first outbreak comes at 288 hours across the Central/Southern plains, and then continues into 312 hours in the Northern/Central plains. Typically, this is very long range, but I've come to trust it more considering that March 2-3 used to be in the long range like this, and also the fact that the GFS was showing the exact same thing yesterday. Something to watch...





Hello from Louisville, Ky. I wish I could change my handle. I lived in Panama City Beach when I joined WU, therefore, I used pcbhere.

Anyhow, 1st the tornadoes, then 5 1/2 inches of snow, last night low of 29, today high 70 degrees. All I can say is, huh?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely not saying that this will come true given its time out on the GFS model, but if this were to come to fruition, an Unprecedented outbreak would occur. The first outbreak comes at 288 hours across the Central/Southern plains, and then continues into 312 hours in the Northern/Central plains. Typically, this is very long range, but I've come to trust it more considering that March 2-3 used to be in the long range like this, and also the fact that the GFS was showing the exact same thing yesterday. Something to watch...







your vocabulary has increased a bit...you have either stared at dictionary for awhile er taken interest in your spelling list ;)
Quoting pcbhere:
Hello from Louisville, Ky. I wish I could change my handle. I lived in Panama City Beach when I joined WU, therefore, I used pcbhere.

Anyhow, 1st the tornadoes, then 5 1/2 inches of snow, last night low of 29, today high 70 degrees. All I can say is, huh?


if u want new handle then make new account...the same profile will save you from them bloggers that call all newcomers trolls , lol
MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A powerful solar flare greater than X5.0 is currently in progress. More information to follow.

The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact.





Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for images, video and more details should a CME be produced.




Re: 645 I'm no troll. Signed up in 2009 when I moved to Florida and never experienced hurricanes. I am not an avid poster, but read the blog everyday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13 (#144):
Just goes to show you that when tornadoes get to EF4/EF5 strength, no where above ground is safe...They might need to do a reassessment...
Decker

As it turns out, this home was actually occupied by a woman and her two children at the time the tornado struck. They are all alive, though the mother--Stephanie Decker--lost both her legs while protecting her children. See and read the story here.

(On a side note: the video shows that the house did collapse in on itself and into the basement, which is not visible from in front of the home.)


Indiana mother, Stephanie Decker, loses legs saving kids from tornado.
Tuesday March 6, 2012


Parents Joe and Stephanie Decker are shown here with their children Dominic and Reese. When a tornado slammed into their home, Stephanie Decker shielded her children with her own body and lost her legs. (Decker Family/Handout)

AP: INDIANAPOLIS -- An Indiana woman who saved her two children by binding them together with a blanket and shielding them with her body as a tornado ripped apart their house lost parts of both her legs, which were crushed by the falling debris, her husband says.

Stephanie Decker, a 36-year-old sleep specialist, lost one leg above the knee and the other above the ankle, her husband said Monday. She was in serious but stable condition at a Kentucky hospital. The couple's 8-year-old son and 5-year-old daughter survived Friday's storm unscathed.

"I told her, `They're here because of you,"' Joe Decker said by telephone from the University of Louisville Hospital. "I let her know that nothing else matters. I said, `You're going to be here for your kids, and you get to see them grow up."'

Decker, 42, was at Silver Creek High School in Sellersburg, where he teaches algebra, when the tornado hit. With storms expected, the school had been locked down, and he was debating whether to try to race home. Decker exchanged a series of texts with his wife, urging her to get herself and their children into the basement of their sprawling, three-story brick and stone home in Marysville, Ind.

"Then she sent me a text saying the whole house was shaking, and I texted her back and asked her if everything was OK," he said. "I asked her about six or seven times and got no response. That kind of freaked me out."

He said his wife told him later that she was in their walk-out basement, which had French doors leading outside and a wall of windows, when she saw the tornado approaching, moving across the family's 15-acre plot. Stephanie Decker had already tied a blanket around both children and to herself, and she threw herself on top of the children.

"She said she felt the whole house start to go, and then she felt like it moved them about before it kind of wedged her in there, but she was able to keep the kids from moving away," Decker said.

When the tornado passed, Stephanie Decker called to the children. Reese, 5, answered immediately, but Dominic, 8, hesitated before saying he was OK. Decker said his son told him he couldn't hear his mother because of the roar of the storm.
Dominic, however, soon ran across the street to seek help from neighbors, who had taken refuge in a storm cellar, Decker said. One neighbor, realizing the severity of Stephanie's injuries, ran for help and found a deputy sheriff traveling on a four-wheeler about a quarter of a mile away. The deputy applied tourniquets to Stephanie Decker's legs to halt her blood loss.

She has been scheduled to undergo surgery on her legs again Thursday, hospital spokeswoman Holly Hinson said.

"The house is gone. It's pretty amazing that she's alive," Hinson said.
With trees blocking the road after the storm, Decker said he ran part of the way home before two men gave him a ride. He found his house gone and his children with a family friend. His wife had been taken to a hospital 10 miles away, and the men drove him there, allowing him to see Stephanie briefly before she was airlifted to the Louisville hospital.

"I was afraid I might never see her again," Decker said.
*sigh*

Youtubes new channel design comes in tomorrow...Dont even get an option to stick with the oold design, AKA the BEST design
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P
Quoting redwagon:

Indeed, the max was 4.3" yesterday. Why the uncertainty?

A lot rides on this. Like the lake tourism economies of Texas, which was killed dead last year.
Cut off lows away from both of the jets are fickle and hard for the models to latch on to. And hard for the Mets sometimes too,,:)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P

It was a means to raise $ for a charity and if you can afford a $8100 for nonsense you might need the tax break.
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?
Quoting hydrus:
Cut off lows away from both of the jets are fickle and hard for the models to latch on to. And hard for the Mets sometimes too,,:)

Thank you, Sir.

Right now, BUY COW. We ran/sold/culled clean out of them last year, and if POPS continue +, forage and hay will be plenty.
Seriously.
Now THIS is an off the scale forecast. It goes to black, and erases part of the map.



well

Link
I saw this earlier today and found it very interesting... Does anyone have a possible explanation?
Quoting Patrap:


Indiana mother, Stephanie Decker, loses legs saving kids from tornado.
Tuesday March 6, 2012


Parents Joe and Stephanie Decker are shown here with their children Dominic and Reese. When a tornado slammed into their home, Stephanie Decker shielded her children with her own body and lost her legs. (Decker Family/Handout)

AP: INDIANAPOLIS -- An Indiana woman who saved her two children by binding them together with a blanket and shielding them with her body as a tornado ripped apart their house lost parts of both her legs, which were crushed by the falling debris, her husband says.

Stephanie Decker, a 36-year-old sleep specialist, lost one leg above the knee and the other above the ankle, her husband said Monday. She was in serious but stable condition at a Kentucky hospital. The couple's 8-year-old son and 5-year-old daughter survived Friday's storm unscathed.

"I told her, `They're here because of you,"' Joe Decker said by telephone from the University of Louisville Hospital. "I let her know that nothing else matters. I said, `You're going to be here for your kids, and you get to see them grow up."'

Decker, 42, was at Silver Creek High School in Sellersburg, where he teaches algebra, when the tornado hit. With storms expected, the school had been locked down, and he was debating whether to try to race home. Decker exchanged a series of texts with his wife, urging her to get herself and their children into the basement of their sprawling, three-story brick and stone home in Marysville, Ind.

"Then she sent me a text saying the whole house was shaking, and I texted her back and asked her if everything was OK," he said. "I asked her about six or seven times and got no response. That kind of freaked me out."

He said his wife told him later that she was in their walk-out basement, which had French doors leading outside and a wall of windows, when she saw the tornado approaching, moving across the family's 15-acre plot. Stephanie Decker had already tied a blanket around both children and to herself, and she threw herself on top of the children.

"She said she felt the whole house start to go, and then she felt like it moved them about before it kind of wedged her in there, but she was able to keep the kids from moving away," Decker said.

When the tornado passed, Stephanie Decker called to the children. Reese, 5, answered immediately, but Dominic, 8, hesitated before saying he was OK. Decker said his son told him he couldn't hear his mother because of the roar of the storm.
Dominic, however, soon ran across the street to seek help from neighbors, who had taken refuge in a storm cellar, Decker said. One neighbor, realizing the severity of Stephanie's injuries, ran for help and found a deputy sheriff traveling on a four-wheeler about a quarter of a mile away. The deputy applied tourniquets to Stephanie Decker's legs to halt her blood loss.

She has been scheduled to undergo surgery on her legs again Thursday, hospital spokeswoman Holly Hinson said.

"The house is gone. It's pretty amazing that she's alive," Hinson said.
With trees blocking the road after the storm, Decker said he ran part of the way home before two men gave him a ride. He found his house gone and his children with a family friend. His wife had been taken to a hospital 10 miles away, and the men drove him there, allowing him to see Stephanie briefly before she was airlifted to the Louisville hospital.

"I was afraid I might never see her again," Decker said.


What an amazing story. It is so sad that she has lost both of her legs, but her children will live on and likely be inspirational people (I know I would). It just goes to show that mother nature is a force that man kind cannot even control. My thoughts and prayers go out to their family and every other family affected by those tornado outbreaks.
Quoting redwagon:

Thank you, Sir.

Right now, BUY COW. We ran/sold/culled clean out of them last year, and if POPS continue , forage and hay will be plenty.
Seriously.
I was eyeballing some ribeyes today. The gang wanted chicken instead. I am hoping the drought stricken areas will get the rain they need without severe flooding issues. Its a wait and see.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Now THIS is an off the scale forecast. It goes to black, and erases part of the map.



well

Link
It mirrors the thinking of the Climate Prediction Center, which shows a 90% forecast value above normal over the upper Great lakes, in sharp contrast to that 80% forecast value below normal for western Alaska.

Uh-oh

Winter never had a chance here in the contiguous US...
Magnitude 3.0 - PUERTO RICO REGION
2012 March 07 00:08:51 UTC





Magnitude
3.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, March 07, 2012 at 00:08:51 UTC
Tuesday, March 06, 2012 at 08:08:51 PM at epicenter
Location
18.995°N, 66.869°W
Depth
15.1 km (9.4 miles)
Region
PUERTO RICO REGION
Distances
57 km (35 miles) N (355°) from Hatillo, PR
57 km (35 miles) N (358°) from Camuy, PR
57 km (36 miles) NNE (16°) from Isabela, PR
96 km (60 miles) NW (306°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=63.7 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Gp=259°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
Source
Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico
Event ID
pr12067000
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?


I have never experienced anything to the magnitude of an EF4/EF5 so it is hard to say. However, after seeing the pictures and etc. I would think that would be to traumatic. That was a devastating situation and if she is not interested in something like that then I would not let her go. I have chased a few tornadoes (EF2/EF3) and have seen the damage they can cause. I have also been through a few hurricanes and they both can cause significant damage and death.

I cannot speak for you, nor will I attempt to, but in my opinion; if they are not coherent as to what is going on, then personally I would not put them through that.

I must say, you are a great person for helping out in a situation like that. It is so good to see people that are in a close distance to a disaster help in a time of need.
Quoting Patrap:
Magnitude 3.0 - PUERTO RICO REGION
2012 March 07 00:08:51 UTC





Magnitude
3.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, March 07, 2012 at 00:08:51 UTC
Tuesday, March 06, 2012 at 08:08:51 PM at epicenter
Location
18.995°N, 66.869°W
Depth
15.1 km (9.4 miles)
Region
PUERTO RICO REGION
Distances
57 km (35 miles) N (355°) from Hatillo, PR
57 km (35 miles) N (358°) from Camuy, PR
57 km (36 miles) NNE (16°) from Isabela, PR
96 km (60 miles) NW (306°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles); depth +/- 1.5 km (0.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 10, Nph= 10, Dmin=63.7 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Gp=259°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=0
Source
Puerto Rico Seismic Network, University of Puerto Rico
Event ID
pr12067000

Is it possible anyone could feel that? It's only a 3.0, though it is shallow...
Re #649... that is an amazing story.... and that lady has a chance to walk again, albeit using prostheses. Reading this makes me think about the family that was killed in the other town, with the little girl that was blown away and survived for a while.
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?
So long as she can be, and is, kept safe, I think it could be a very good experience for her. Not only would she see what nature is capable of, she could also participate in a community-building project, and benefit from the one-of-a-kind feeling of helping others in a time of need. So far as it being a traumatic experience, I wouldn't think so; it's not as if she'll run across injured people or animals. (Too, it also depends on her maturity level, but she must be okay in that regard or you wouldn't be thinking of taking her anyway, right?)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Is it possible anyone could feel that? It's only a 3.0, though it is shallow...


Awaiting the posting of Shake maps,..they should be n soon.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Well, the "Virgin Mary" grilled cheese sandwich sold for $28,000 Link. So a chicken nugget going for $8100 isn't really all that surprising. :P



Things like that drive me absolutely nuts, it makes my head want to explode.... Are we sure human beings are capable of making decisions THAT bad?



Why, why, why, why, why, why, why WHHHHYYYYY! UGHHHHH!!!!.............
Seems I'm the "Anti-post" in this thread.. ugh!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.



I'm still in a rage of confusion trying to figure out why anyone would do that, my gosh, did they inject amoebas into their brain?
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm still in a rage of confusion trying to figure out why anyone would do that, my gosh, did they inject amoebas into their brain?



It's called "Idolatry".
Before I forget--and having absolutely nothing to do with weather--happy 100th birthday, Oreo. May you be around for another 100--or at least until I'm no longer in need of your unhealthy, three-layered goodness.

Oreo
..all Hail Oreo's!!!


Bringer of Milk and satisfaction.

"Ommmmmmmmmmmmm"...............

A Ha ahhhhhhhhhh.... a ahhhhhhhh..


I love Oreo....I never liked putting them in the milk like others.I just like them the way they were.
Quoting RTSplayer:



It's called "Idolatry".


I know what it is, but seriously, its 2012. I mean, Idolatry still exists today, but generally it takes on forms of valuable things like nice cars and beautiful women, not chicken nuggets that look like George Washington and a grilled Cheese sandwich that looks like the virgin Mary. Good freaking grief people.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I love Oreo....I never liked putting them in the milk like others.I just like them the way they were.


Me too! I might drink milk after eating them, but I never really got into dipping them in milk. I would often like to take them apart as a kid and eat em piece by piece. These days I don't eat them as often for obvious health reasons, yes I'm 21, but its good to be healthy when I'm young then change my ways when I'm old and decaying. The saying ":you're only young once" is a very foolish saying if its used too much for everything.
I live in southern IN, and often work near Fredericksburg, where the EF 4 started. I drive on IN 60 through New Pekin at least 4 times a month. The damage over here is heartbreaking. The one positive in this story is that warnings were in place, people knew to take cover, and knew where the tornados were and their approximate track. Kudos to modern meteorology, or this outbreak would have killed hundreds more.
Thank you the opinions. She wants to go and she has seen the local news coverage. I know that watching the telecasts cannot compare to witnessing the destruction firsthand. My heart tells me that it will be a good experience for all of us.

Instead of taking her to the mall, we will get down and dirty and, hopefully, make a small dent in the clean-up!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Me too! I might drink milk after eating them, but I never really got into dipping them in milk. I would often like to take them apart as a kid and eat em piece by piece. These days I don't eat them as often for obvious health reasons, yes I'm 21, but its good to be healthy when I'm young then change my ways when I'm old and decaying. The saying ":you're only young once" is a very foolish saying if its used too much for everything.
Agreed.I still eat oreos but not as much when I was a kid/teen/young adult.I'm 42 now and it get's harder to loose weight the older you get XD.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definitely not saying that this will come true given its time out on the GFS model, but if this were to come to fruition, an Unprecedented outbreak would occur. The first outbreak comes at 288 hours across the Central/Southern plains, and then continues into 312 hours in the Northern/Central plains. Typically, this is very long range, but I've come to trust it more considering that March 2-3 used to be in the long range like this, and also the fact that the GFS was showing the exact same thing yesterday. Something to watch...





What do you mean by "Unprecedented"?
Updated 3/6/2012 @ 13:45 UTC

Solar Update

Solar activity continues at moderate levels. Sunspot 1429 remains a powerful sunspot cluster and has produced at least 8 low level M-Class solar flares within the past 24 hours. The latest event was an M2.1 flare at 12:41 UTC Tuesday morning. Existing Sunspot 1428 continues to transit the southern hemisphere, but remains quiet. Sunspot 1431 also in the south, appears to be fading. There will remain the threat for another major solar flare within the next 24-48 hours.

AR11429 (Tuesday) - SDO

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I saw this earlier today and found it very interesting... Does anyone have a possible explanation?
Here's a quick little paper on the subject. Link.

The paper explains that locally, vegetation has increased and reforestation has occurred likely contributing to the decrease in wind speeds. Furthermore, on a larger scale, climate change has been observed to move the storm track further north in the northern hemisphere possibly weakening the winds in the area.

Another thing they didn't mention is that with climate change we have also seen a decrease in the pressure gradient between the poles and the arctic (since the arctic has warmed faster than the tropics) which would certainly contribute to lower wind speeds.
Quoting hydrus:
I was eyeballing some ribeyes today. The gang wanted chicken instead. I am hoping the drought stricken areas will get the rain they need without severe flooding issues. Its a wait and see.

I actually meant invest in cattle. The live ones, not the steaks.

Gonna be a big moooove in cattle back to Texas now we're assured of pasture, after our inferno last year.
I'm not kidding, if you have family or friends with extra cows and bulls, buy them and sell them to ranchers here.
From solarham.com

A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the new STEREO Behind COR2 images.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Before I forget--and having absolutely nothing to do with weather--happy 100th birthday, Oreo. May you be around for another 100--or at least until I'm no longer in need of your unhealthy, three-layered goodness.

Oreo
This is the eatenest( my own word ) weather blog I have ever seen. Seems like at least once a week somebody brings up food and I get hungry..Yall like pizza.?
Quoting redwagon:

I actually meant invest in cattle. The live ones, not the steaks.

Gonna be a big moooove in cattle back to Texas now we're assured of pasture, after our inferno last year.
I'm not kidding, if you have family or friends with extra cows and bulls, buy them and sell them to ranchers here.
Lol.. I will look into it. There is certainly no shortage of cows around here...or horses.
All I can say is don't post pictures of fish. People got 24 hour bans here for doing that during the season....
Quoting hydrus:
This is the eatenest( my own word ) weather blog I have ever seen. Seems like at least once a week somebody brings up food and I get hungry..Yall like pizza.?
That looks so good.Noooo.Must-resist-pizza!.
BREAKING: 2012-03-07 01:03 Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely

An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts, watch here for updates.

Uh-oh
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?


too dramatic. might see somethin that is rated M...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Agreed.I still eat oreos but not as much when I was a kid/teen/young adult.I'm 42 now and it get's harder to loose weight the older you get XD.


wow your 42 geez by the way you interact here i thought you was 25 or somethin!
www.solarham.com


ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0017 UTC

Estimated Velocity: 2273 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Quoting Neapolitan:
BREAKING: 2012-03-07 01:03 Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely

An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts, watch here for updates.

Uh-oh


How might this manifest itself here on the third rock?
Quoting SPLbeater:


too dramatic. might see somethin that is rated M...

wow your 42 geez by the way you interact here i thought you was 25 or somethin!
I'm still a kid at heart.My dad is 73 and still acts like a kid at times.That's where I get it from.
Rocketdyne radiation is still abundant
By Susan Abram, Staff Writer
Posted: 03/05/2012 07:49:52 PM PST
Updated: 03/05/2012 07:51:34 PM PST

Some levels of radioactive chemicals found on a portion of the Santa Susana Field Laboratory site were as much as 1,000 times higher than standards, according to federal data released on Monday.
Acting as an independent monitor, officials with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency conducted radiological surveys on a portion of the land known as Area IV, where a partial meltdown of a nuclear reactor occurred in 1959.

That portion is currently overseen by the Department of Energy.

The results of the radiological survey show that of the 437 samples collected, 75 exceeded standards agreed upon by the DOE and the California Department of Toxic Substances Control in a cleanup agreement signed in December 2010.
Seven radioactive isotopes, including one known as cesium-137, measured at levels between 100 to 1,000 times higher than the standards. Other radionuclides that suggest nuclear presence include strontium-90, tritium, plutonium, and carbon-14.

The recent data is significant to residents, activists and public officials who have fought for years for the removal of radiation and chemical contaminants at the former Rocketdyne site, which is nestled in the hills between Chatsworth and Simi Valley and was purchased by the Boeing Co. in 1996.
The numbers provides hard evidence that not only do the radioactive materials exist, but that the levels are higher than expected.

"This confirms what we were worried about," said Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, D-Santa Monica, who has sought a complete cleanup of the former Rocketdyne rocket engine testing laboratory. Brownley released the data to the public on Monday.

"This begins to answer critical questions about what's still up there, where, how much, and how bad," she said in a statement.
Brownley called the findings "extremely disappointing, especially because the site has already undergone two cleanup efforts by its owner, The Boeing Co., and the Department of Energy. Each declared the land fully cleaned."

A spokesman for the Department of Energy didn't say if the agency was surprised or disappointed by the levels, but that clean-up would continue.

"We really are still looking at the data," said John Jones, federal project manager with the DOE. "The bottom line is we will clean up as we agreed to in our committment to the 2010 Administrative Order on Consent for Remedial Action."
Boeing officials emphasized that they have completed significant cleanup activities alongside the DOE and NASA, which also owns a portion of the land.

"The preliminary data does not pertain to the portions of the site that Boeing is responsible for cleaning up," Boeing officials said in a statement.
"We continue to be open to working with the EPA, the Department of Energy, NASA and the state to find the most effective ways to clean up Santa Susana and preserve the land for future generations."

Officials with the state Department of Toxic Substances Control would not say if the levels found at the site posed an immediate danger.

"When we deal with things, we deal with long term risk exposure," said Mark Malinowski, with the DTSC.
A final report on the radiological survey is expected at the end of the year, Malinowski said.

But activists reacted similarly to Brownley, saying the data prove that prior clean up efforts were ineffective. They wonder what else can be brewing within the rocks, the earth, and the groundwater within the 2,849-acre property.
"People have been waiting for this information for years," said Dan Hirsch, president of the activist group Committee to Bridge the Gap.

"All those years, we were told it was clean. This data prove we're not just a bunch of unknowledgeable people, but that everyday people are proven right."

There was some victory in 2010 when both the DOE and NASA agreed to adhere to a high level of clean-up standards mandated under state bill 990.
However, Boeing officials said that decontaminating its property to those standards would destroy the natural resources on the site. A federal judge agreed with Boeing last year.

But the EPA's recent findings prove that all past remediation efforts have failed, said Denise Duffield, executive director for Physicians for Social Responsibility-Los Angeles.
"These are remarkable findings," Duffield said. "The new EPA data show extensive radioactive contamination remaining at the site and underscores the need for the site to be cleaned up to background without delay."

http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_201 08641/rocketdyne-radiation-is-still-abundant
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What do you mean by "Unprecedented"?

Well, as in, amazing/unheard of for March.
Quoting presslord:


How might this manifest itself here on the third rock?
We'll know more shortly, but: possible telecommunications disruptions, power outages, brilliant aurora, etc. It all remains to be seen which if any of those will occur, and if they do, how intense they'll be...
..earlier from solarham

Updated 3/7/2012 @ 00:30 UTC
Major X5.4 Solar Flare in Progress
The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429. This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for images, video and more details should a CME be produced.
Quoting Neapolitan:
We'll know more shortly, but: possible telecommunications disruptions, power outages, brilliant aurora, etc. It all remains to be seen which if any of those will occur, and if they do, how intense they'll be...


I think that should get here about 2 or 3 p.m. central tomorrow.

At least the N. hemisphere is angled slightly away.

What we need
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, as in, amazing/unheard of for March.


could u show the graphic once more plz?
Gee how dumb could i be....i had to look up what an air parcel is...and when i found the definition, i slap myself. "you stupid idiot, any weather junkie should REMEMBER that.."
Quoting presslord:


How might this manifest itself here on the third rock?
In the form of beer, but be careful, or you may end up having a "Coronal Mass Ejection" which is a waste of good Mexican brew.JMO
Quoting SPLbeater:


could u show the graphic once more plz?

500 mb. winds



Surface temperatures:



Moisture:



Instability:



Sounding:

Major X5.4 Solar Flare + CME - Presentation (3/7/2012) - SolarHam.com

This would mean very unsettled weather for the western two thirds of the U.S.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

500 mb. winds



Surface temperatures:



Moisture:



Instability:



Sounding:



hmm...might be a lil somthin. i have doubts of it succeeding the March 2nd outbreak...
Quoting Neapolitan:
We'll know more shortly, but: possible telecommunications disruptions, power outages, brilliant aurora, etc. It all remains to be seen which if any of those will occur, and if they do, how intense they'll be...
I saw a brilliant aurora over the U.P. of Michigan many years ago. It was incredible
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

500 mb. winds



Surface temperatures:



Moisture:



Instability:



Sounding:



Looks like a significant rainfall situation. All of Texas is hoping this pans out
That is a huge slot of dry air. It looks about 4000 miles long.
Quoting hydrus:
That is a huge slot of dry air.


yeah that small black oval towards the bottom, thats gotta be 0% humidity :D
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 15U
9:00 AM WST March 7 2012
=============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 13.9S 97.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.7S 95.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 93.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.2S 88.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.4S 85.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has continued to develop overnight with a clear low level center to the east of cold convection. DT is fluctuating as the distance from the low level circulation center to the convection increases and decreases but MET=PAT=FT=2.0.

Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 24 hours time. It should continue to develop over the next 72 hours and then weaken as the system comes under increased shear.

The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly track is forecast.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low 15U will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, as in, amazing/unheard of for March.
So are you saying somthing greater than or equal to the March 2nd event?
TC irina down to 35kt, gues it aint gon complete its loop.

Sad, because its changed so much since i wrote my blog if you were to read my blog for first time tonight the forecast infomation would be completely wrong.

stinkin Irina...lol
Can see that area of subsidence on the TPW from CIMSS. Not as dry as the other satellite pic indicates.
Is all that clutter around the SE radars fog or something?

Also, my barometer has risen again to a new record of 30.65 (0.01 higher then previous record for today lol)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

500 mb. winds



Surface temperatures:



Moisture:



Instability:



Sounding:

doesn't look as impressive as the march 2nd deal. But it's 312hrs out anyway, so it doesn't really matter
Have yet to look at what effects a CME would have on earth. If anyone can guess what would happen if the Earth took a direct hit from a CME?
Quoting SPLbeater:
TC irina down to 35kt, gues it aint gon complete its loop.

Sad, because its changed so much since i wrote my blog if you were to read my blog for first time tonight the forecast infomation would be completely wrong.

stinkin Irina...lol
I gotta admit I'm kinda tired of Irina now... and I'll bet those pple who got soaked in Mozambique are too...

Later, all. I'm off to bed.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta admit I'm kinda tired of Irina now... and I'll bet those pple who got soaked in Mozambique are too...

Later, all. I'm off to bed.
G,nite Baha.
night all
Quoting bappit:
Can see that area of subsidence on the TPW from CIMSS. Not as dry as the other satellite pic indicates.
Looks very active in the S.W.Indian Ocean.
Quoting SPLbeater:
night all
G,nite SPL
It looks like a fun year ahead, for the sky watchers of wisdom. Here kitty, kitty ...



Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like a fun year ahead, for the sky watchers of wisdom. Here kitty, kitty ...

So when does the movie start? I got my popcorn.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like a fun year ahead, for the sky watchers of wisdom. Here kitty, kitty ...





Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 767








uhhhh, what?
Quoting Patrap:


Pat, I can't tell if you're posting that seriously or as a joke.
X5.4 is about, well the highest in quite some time.


Major X5.4 Solar Flare

The second strongest solar flare of Cycle 24 in terms of X-Ray Flux, just peaked around Active Sunspot 1429.

www.solarham.com

This major event measured X5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A coronal mass ejection will likely result and due to the sunspots more geoeffective position, there will be a chance for some sort of impact. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for images, video and more details should a CME be produced. Remember, You can also follow the latest updates on SolarHam Facebook and by clicking "LIKE"


CME UPDATE: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the new STEREO Behind COR2 images. High energy proton levels are now on the rise and a radiation storm is imminent. Video Presentation of the solar flare is now below.

earlier this evening before the X5.4

NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report]

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Mar 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was high. There were five M-class x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1429 (N17E31). The
largest event was an M2/1n 06/1241Z. None of these events was
associated with a CME that would be expected to be geoeffective.
Region 1429 dominates the disk in area (about 1010 millionths), and
exhibited growth during the period. The trailer portion showed the
most development but has separated a bit from the main cluster of
spots. The central portion is magnetically complex and shows
multiple deltas as well as strong shear along a pair of east-west
polarity inversion lines. Region 1428 (S17E08) also showed some
growth during the period (area of 280 millionths) but is simple
magnetically and was relatively quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing
event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. ACE solar wind
measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field showed steady
strengthening during the period and there were numerous intervals of
weakly southward Bz. The greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement
continued throughout the period and reached a peak value of 4 PFU at
06/1335Z. The flux appeared to be on a slow declining trend at the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods during the next 24 hours (07 March). The increase in
activity is expected due to combined effects from a co-rotating
interaction region with the CME that occurred on 04 March
(associated with the M2 x-ray event). Later in the day additional
effects are expected due to a glancing blow from the full halo CME
associated with the X1 x-ray event that occurred on 05 March.
Predominantly unsettled levels with a chance for active periods are
expected for the second day (08 March) as effects from the
anticipated disturbance should diminish. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected for the third day (09 March).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green


[Latest and Full Report]
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have yet to look at what effects a CME would have on earth. If anyone can guess what would happen if the Earth took a direct hit from a CME?


Depends on the strength. Usually communication disruptions, satellite issues, etc. from moderately strong CME's. Really strong CME's can overload power grids, cause blackouts, and/or knock out satellites (rare).

Also strong CMEs produce stronger auroras. Some can get pretty far south with a good pulse.
Updated 3/7/2012 @ 04:34 UTC
Sudden Solar Wind Increase / Aurora Watch
In perhaps another developing story, the Solar Wind is showing a sudden increase from 360 km/s to 440 km/s and the IMF is currently tilting sharply south. This is a glancing blow impact from an earlier CME. A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 20 nT was detected at 04:27 UTC. Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes. G1 Geomagnetic Storming may soon be possible.

NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 6, 2012

Here is a Full Disk movie by SDO showing the massive X5.4 Solar Flare this evening.

LATEST SECCHI BEACON IMAGES

Shown here are the latest SECCHI beacon images. The STEREO space weather beacon telemetry mode is a very low rate, highly compressed data stream broadcast by the spacecraft 24 hours per day. These data are used for space weather forecasting. Because of the large compression factors used, these beacon images are of much lower quality than the actual science data.
Hawaii governor declares disaster



HAWAII'S governor has declared a disaster for two islands after three days of relentless rains caused flooding and a sewage spill on Kauai, where officials are dealing with tree-blocked roads, closed schools and dangerous surf.

Governor Neil Abercrombie's declaration includes Oahu, where a brown water advisory was issued after two manholes overflowed and wastewater flowed into the ocean. There were also warnings of possible hail, lightning, rockslides and water-clogged roads.

Kauai schoolchildren were kept home yesterday. A school was functioning as an emergency shelter, where 33 people spent the night Monday. The Hawaii chapter of the Red Cross said more than 50 others spent the night at three other shelters.

State workers in Honolulu yesterday continued to remove floating rubbish from the debris trap at the entrance to the Ala Wai small boat harbour. Cleanup began Monday after the weekend rains washed large amounts of rubbish into the Ala Wai canal.

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch for Kauai, Niihau, Oahu as well as the islands of Lanai, Maui and Molokai. It lifted a flash flood warning that had been in place for Kauai and Oahu.
NSW of warned more wild weather

NSW is bracing itself for some wild weather later today, which is expected to bring heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging waves to the coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest weather warning issued at 4.16pm today states that a low pressure system will deepen in the Tasman Sea later today and move towards the NSW coast bringing heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging waves to the southern half of the NSW coast.

Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to increase later Wednesday afternoon or evening about coastal parts of the Metropolitan, South Coast, Illawarra and Hunter forecast district south of Newcastle . Localised heavy rain may lead to flash floods.

Locations which may be affected include Sydney, Gosford, Wyong, Wollongong and Batemans Bay. The area around Wollongong and the nearby adjacent escarpment is particularly at risk.

9mm fell since 9am at Vincentia on the South Coast.

Very heavy surf will develop early Thursday morning and may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion about the South Coast and Illawarra forecast districts.

Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

The system is expected to move away from the region later on Thursday.

Flood Warnings remains current for several rivers. Refer to www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings for current flood information.


Thousands of spiders spun a field of new webs to escape floodwaters in Wagga Wagga, NSW.
5 day Precip outlook.. It either looks really good, or bad, dependent on your need/lack of for rain!


Looks like the cut off low develops a little more toward Central TX... Please someone jump in and help me if I'm wrong. Just trying to learn here...



Tropical storm Irina has killed at least 65 people in Madagascar, mostly on the southeastern end of the island, according to reports Tuesday. Tens of thousands in Madagascar are also homeless after the storm - the second lethal one this year - and three people are missing, according to authorities. Infrastructure also was heavily damaged on the world's fourth largest island, located in the Indian Ocean off Africa's southeastern coast. The storm also lashed the eastern coast of South Africa over the weekend causing damage to property and pounded Mozambique, where several people died. Last month, another storm, Cyclone Giovanna, killed at least 36 people and left hundreds of thousands without proper shelter in Madagascar, which suffers from political instability and extreme poverty.
Based on the models and synoptic data over the lower 48, it appears that there is a slight (15%) chance for severe weather across the Arklatex region on Thursday as a positively tilted upper trough now seen on water vapor imagery approaching west Texas moves eastward. Most of the storms will likely initiate during the day. Based on what appear to be largely unidirectional lower- to middle tropospheric wind profiles, I doubt we'll see much in the way of tornadoes, much less the violent ones of March 2. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

On that note, I might start my own severe weather blog just like I do with hurricanes. I get too bored during the off-season to just lounge around waiting on the first named storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Based on the models and synoptic data over the lower 48, it appears that there is a slight (15%) chance for severe weather across the Arklatex region on Thursday as a positively tilted upper trough now seen on water vapor imagery approaching west Texas moves eastward. Most of the storms will likely initiate during the day. Based on what appear to be largely unidirectional lower- to middle tropospheric wind profiles, I doubt we'll see much in the way of tornadoes, much less the violent ones of March 2. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

On that note, I might start my own severe weather blog just like I do with hurricanes. I get too bored during the off-season to just lounge around waiting on the first named storm.


Thanks for the assessment of the event. Looks like quite a bit of rain here on the La/Tx border.
Quoting Seawall:


Thanks for the assessment of the event. Looks like quite a bit of rain here on the La/Tx border.


Rain if nothing else, yeah. Though as I said, severe potential should remain marginal, especially in that area.

I figure I know enough about severe weather at this point to give forecasting it a shot. I may not be as good with it as I am with hurricanes, but whatever.
Well, here it is. My first real attempt at a severe weather blog. Hope you enjoy, and criticism (friendly or otherwise) is welcome!
Very nice Severe Weather Blog, K-Man, much like something Dr. Master's would create, himself. I'm a bit more worried about the late weekend in the Arklatex, myself, but that's more of a feeling than anything clinically determined.

Well done, and good luck with that in the future, hopefully. :-)

Jo
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, here it is. My first real attempt at a severe weather blog. Hope you enjoy, and criticism (friendly or otherwise) is welcome!
The Uncertainty drifts back to certainty. Now the forecast is 30-30-50-70-60-50 up from last night's 0-0-20-40-20-0-0-0.

This is an important forecast: Texas agriculture, drinking water and tourism depends on it, after last year's extended stay in hell.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, here it is. My first real attempt at a severe weather blog. Hope you enjoy, and criticism (friendly or otherwise) is welcome!
I like it.. now if you could put together a 5 day severe forecast you'd probably get some decent traffic.
Good morning.
Tropical Cyclone 16S has formed... It's forecast to stay over open waters while making Cat 1/ Cat 2 intensity.
Quoting redwagon:
The Uncertainty drifts back to certainty. Now the forecast is 30-30-50-70-60-50 up from last night's 0-0-20-40-20-0-0-0.

This is an important forecast: Texas agriculture, drinking water and tourism depends on it, after last year's extended stay in hell.

In fact it's hard misting right now with a 'clear' current conditions forecast.
pretty strong 945mb low.
Quoting pcbhere:
My adult son and I are volunteering this weekend for clean-up duty in Henryville. I wanted to take my 11 year old granddaughter to help. Do you all think that this would be a good experience for her or too traumatic?


Good for you!

also on a side,note, downtown Henryville looks like a farmers market with all the stuff being given away from good citizens.

These people don't need stuff, they need CASH, MONEY!

Please if you donate, make it money,that's what they need so so badly!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Good for you!

also on a side,note, downtown Henryville looks like a farmers market with all the stuff being given away from good citizens.

These people don't need stuff, they need CASH, MONEY!

Please if you donate, make it money,that's what they need so so badly!


one of the things we do is give people cash cards...it has worked really well...the 'stuff' thing can be a nightmare if it's not strategic
Quoting presslord:


one of the things we do is give people cash cards...it has worked really well...the 'stuff' thing can be a nightmare if it's not strategic

You ever stroll on up to the Isle of Palms?
Quoting KeyWestSun:

You ever stroll on up to the Isle of Palms?


every once in a while...usually stay on the Folly Beach side of the harbor, though
Breaking News: Henry Margusity Fan Club on Facebook declares winter over East of the Rockies!!!

Now we can get prepared for severe weather over the next few months....
I am a little optimistic over the chances of Severe Weather across Eastern Texas tomorrow. Soundings across SPC's Slight risk area show that there will be a moderately-strong CAP and little instability for storms to fire on. Additionally, the WRF doesn't really show anything besides rain across East Texas tomorrow. It does however show some heavier thunderstorms across Eastern Oklahoma.



Either way, tomorrow will not be a significant event.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Breaking News: Henry Margusity Fan Club on Facebook declares winter over East of the Rockies!!!

Now we can get prepared for severe weather over the next few months....

Winter came and went (2011 Halloween nor'easter - October 28 to November 1) before it started (December 22, 2011).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Winter came and went (2011 Halloween nor'easter - October 28 to November 1) before it started (December 22, 2011).


Most of the Oaks here in C FL are full of leaves already which is something you don't see until the very end of March. Also of note my St. Augustine grass is fully green which normally doesn't happen until the end of March or early April. We've even hit 90 already this year (not once but several times) which is extremely early as well.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Most of the Oaks here in C FL are full of leaves already which is something you don't see until the very end of March. Also of note my St. Augustine grass is fully green which normally doesn't happen until the end of March or early April. We've even hit 90 already this year (not once but several times) which is extremely early as well.

More fuel to the fire, so to speak.

I've talked to several good meteorologists that believe March and May will be big Severe Weather months. Obviously, that hypothesis has already come true a week into March...

128 Filtered tornado reports on Friday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am a little optimistic over the chances of Severe Weather across Eastern Texas tomorrow. Soundings across SPC's Slight risk area show that there will be a moderately-strong CAP and little instability for storms to fire on. Additionally, the WRF doesn't really show anything besides rain across East Texas tomorrow. It does however show some heavier thunderstorms across Eastern Oklahoma.



Either way, tomorrow will not be a significant event.


Looks more like a flood threat. Huge return flow on that model really pumping deep tropical moisture in eastern TX up to TN.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

More fuel to the fire, so to speak.

I've talked to several good meteorologists that believe March and May will be big Severe Weather months. Obviously, that hypothesis has already come true a week into March...

128 Filtered tornado reports on Friday.


Can you please provide the names of those "several good meteorologists" of whom you speak of?

TIA
Seems appropriate, in light of today's solar activityLink

Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, here it is. My first real attempt at a severe weather blog. Hope you enjoy, and criticism (friendly or otherwise) is welcome!
Nice blog.  Well done.
SUP YALL!!

Nice warm cold clash on the GFS in 7 to 8 days. 10C temperature line appearing up to KY at one point.
Bring on the 80s!!!!!!! :)
(actually i miss my snow)
Quoting hydrus:
In the form of beer, but be careful, or you may end up having a "Coronal Mass Ejection" which is a waste of good Mexican brew.JMO
Chirp
Oops. Not sure how that got doubled.
Australian spider population ballooning due to southeastern floods

Floodtime prey about to blunder into the spiders' net.
Quoting aspectre:
Australian spider population ballooning due to southeastern floods

Floodtime prey about to blunder into the spiders' net.


OK...that's just gross...
Peyton Manning released by the Colts and appears to be heading for Miami! Great news for the Dolphins as we haven't had a good QB since Marino.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Peyton Manning released by the Colts and appears to be heading for Miami! Great news for the Dolphins as we haven't had a good QB since Marino.


Texans couldn't afford him
Quoting RitaEvac:


Texans couldn't afford him


Miami's got the money. Hell this guy would be great playing in a wheel-chair. Texans have a good QB though.
Miami has always had a very good team the only thing that has held them back is not having an efficient QB.
Very bad move on the Colts owner part. Peyton made Indy what it is today and imo Andrew Luck is just going to be an average QB.
Quoting aspectre:
Australian spider population ballooning due to southeastern floods

Floodtime prey about to blunder into the spiders' net.
Good morning all. What a picture. It could pass for a horror movie LOL! Isn't nature a marvel. Thank God it doesn't happen here in the Keys. I would have to move, being arachniphobic.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Miami's got the money. Hell this guy would be great playing in a wheel-chair. Texans have a good QB though.

Miami or Washington seem to be the best bet now. Hope it's Miami though!! I agree, he's got 3 or 4 more good years in him.

Schaub is above average. Not great though. That steller defense and the fact they have Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster make him seem that much better.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very bad move on the Colts owner part. Peyton made Indy what it is today and imo Andrew Luck is just going to be an average QB.

Totally. Although I don't think so, seeing Manning in a Texan uniform would absolutely hysterical on an entertainment level when he goes back to Lucus Oil and sticks it up their..........like favre did to Green Bay when he was with the Vikings.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Miami has always had a very good team the only thing that has held them back is not having an efficient QB.

Yep. They still have Brandon Marshall. Those Marino days were spectualor. Bring Peyton to Miami Baby!! Hell Yeah!!
Anyone see this yet? This is unreal. I have never seen an area with 7 color layers above average! Time to fog the engines on the Arctic Cats and Polaris snowmobiles and put the skis away in the Upper Peninsula and Northern WI. It's spring time!!



Added 3/7/2012 @ 13:30 UTC

Incoming

The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Description: Latest CME-based model run
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning.
Tropical Cyclone 16S has formed... It's forecast to stay over open waters while making Cat 1/ Cat 2 intensity.

well isnt that good news! somthing other then irina...


morning all :D
Quoting presslord:


every once in a while...usually stay on the Folly Beach side of the harbor, though

Been there once. The beaches were similar to what you would find on the lower TX gulf coast between Corpus Christy and Galveston Inland, TX. Just beautiful!!
Good morning guys
pdated 3/7/2012 @ 13:30 UTC

Ongoing Radiation Storm

The high energy proton levels continue to rise following the strong solar flare from very early this morning. A moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is in progress and continues to rise. Strong S3 Level Radiation Storm levels are imminent. The increase in proton levels are a direct result of the major solar flare activity from early Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1429.

Quoting Skyepony:
Tropical storm Irina has killed at least 65 people in Madagascar, mostly on the southeastern end of the island, according to reports Tuesday. Tens of thousands in Madagascar are also homeless after the storm - the second lethal one this year - and three people are missing, according to authorities. Infrastructure also was heavily damaged on the world's fourth largest island, located in the Indian Ocean off Africa's southeastern coast. The storm also lashed the eastern coast of South Africa over the weekend causing damage to property and pounded Mozambique, where several people died. Last month, another storm, Cyclone Giovanna, killed at least 36 people and left hundreds of thousands without proper shelter in Madagascar, which suffers from political instability and extreme poverty.

Sorry to hear, that's so sad.
Quoting StormTracker2K:

This could be very bad, if what the model suggest were to pan out
I WANT EVERYBODY TO KNOW RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.....

I hate schoolwork. :D
Quoting KeyWestSun:
Anyone see this yet? This is unreal. I have never seen an area with 7 color layers above average! Time to fog the engines on the Arctic Cats and Polaris snowmobiles and put the skis away in the Upper Peninsula and Northern WI. It's spring time!!




About two third of the US would be above average!
Quoting aspectre:
Australian spider population ballooning due to southeastern floods

Floodtime prey about to blunder into the spiders' net.


Oh my gods! My skin's crawling from those photos. Pardon me while I get my flame thrower...

(Really fascinating none the less. I recall reading that spider and snake bites increase dramatically when there are floods.)
FXUS64 KHGX 071131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CST WED MAR 7 2012

DISCUSSION...
STRONG RETURN FLOW ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 3O MPH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AS WE WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING US OUR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AZ/NM OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HOLD IT BACK TO THE
WEST. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP. WHILE IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO WORK OUT...THUS WE WILL
NOT ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. AS
WE GET NEARER TO THE EVENT AND GUIDANCE HOPEFULLY COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD IN HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING AND PERHAPS CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND QUICKLY ON
MONDAY WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DRIER
WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 7OS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 38
Quoting SPLbeater:
I WANT EVERYBODY TO KNOW RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.....

I hate schoolwork. :D

I just graduated college less than a year ago. And believe me, I hated it too. My parents kept hammering away at me in high school "Ainslie Marie! Ainslie Marie, finish your studies before you see friends" haha.

I know you want to be a meterorologist. So your best chances to achieve that goal would be to hang in there and persevere. So to yourself: "You can do it!!!"

Quoting Patrap:
pdated 3/7/2012 @ 13:30 UTC

Ongoing Radiation Storm

The high energy proton levels continue to rise following the strong solar flare from very early this morning. A moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is in progress and continues to rise. Strong S3 Level Radiation Storm levels are imminent. The increase in proton levels are a direct result of the major solar flare activity from early Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1429.



I wonder if we will get a big earthquake ;)
Quoting nigel20:

About two third of the US would above average!


Is there an "whole continent" version of that temperature anomaly map? I'm curious to see how far north into Canada that deep red area goes and how far east the blue goes.
If you have an Iphone, check out the EarthNowApp, has pretty good stuff especially for environmental folks.

Global temps for 2 days, ozone, etc... roll the earth like google earth
Forecast for Saturday: high of 12C.

Late April/early October weather...
Quoting KeyWestSun:

I just graduated college less than a year ago. And believe me, I hated it too. My parents kept hammering away at me in high school "Ainslie Marie! Ainslie Marie, finish your studies before you see friends" haha.

I know you want to be a meterorologist. So your best chances to achieve that goal would be to hang in there and persevere. So to yourself: "You can do it!!!"


ya i know i need to, and there isnt a chance of me dropping out and going away from schoolwork....i just hate doing it lol

"extended stay in hell" is what it felt like! But hey, I still live in Austin..:)
Quoting SPLbeater:


ya i know i need to, and there isnt a chance of me dropping out and going away from schoolwork....i just hate doing it lol

Well that's good! haha. I know, it's a pain in the you know what.
Is it Austrailia that has the deadly Funnell Web Spider? Am I confused?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Based on the models and synoptic data over the lower 48, it appears that there is a slight (15%) chance for severe weather across the Arklatex region on Thursday . . .


Where is this? Sounds like a place presslord might live. Close to The Carolinas?

Folks like a good story might want to check out my blog.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Where is this? Sounds like a place presslord might live. Close to The Carolinas?

Folks like a good story might want to check out my blog.


ArkLATex

where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas touch, duh...
Quoting muddertracker:
Is it Austrailia that has the deadly Funnell Web Spider? Am I confused?


Yes.

I think Australia has the most poisonous spiders of any country?
well iz brefkast time see yal
Magnolia Club house is right near the ArkLaTex
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Is there an "whole continent" version of that temperature anomaly map? I'm curious to see how far north into Canada that deep red area goes and how far east the blue goes.
Everybody knows that the weather ends at the 49th parallel.
Quoting SPLbeater:
I WANT EVERYBODY TO KNOW RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.....

I hate schoolwork. :D



What level of schooling are you in?
New blog
Quoting nigel20:

Sorry to hear, that's so sad.
That area cant seem to catch a break. It has bad terrible there for over ten years.