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The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2009

In 1954, the tobacco industry realized it had a serious problem. Thirteen scientific studies had been published over the preceding five years linking smoking to lung cancer. With the public growing increasingly alarmed about the health effects of smoking, the tobacco industry had to move quickly to protect profits and stem the tide of increasingly worrisome scientific news. Big Tobacco turned to one the world's five largest public relations firms, Hill and Knowlton, to help out. Hill and Knowlton designed a brilliant Public Relations (PR) campaign to convince the public that smoking is not dangerous. They encouraged the tobacco industry to set up their own research organization, the Council for Tobacco Research (CTR), which would produce science favorable to the industry, emphasize doubt in all the science linking smoking to lung cancer, and question all independent research unfavorable to the tobacco industry. The CTR did a masterful job at this for decades, significantly delaying and reducing regulation of tobacco products. George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who is President Obama's nominee to head the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), wrote a meticulously researched 2008 book called, Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. In the book, he wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy". Hill and Knowlton, on behalf of the tobacco industry, had founded the "Manufactured Doubt" industry.

The Manufactured Doubt industry grows up
As the success of Hill and Knowlton's brilliant Manufactured Doubt campaign became apparent, other industries manufacturing dangerous products hired the firm to design similar PR campaigns. In 1967, Hill and Knowlton helped asbestos industry giant Johns-Manville set up the Asbestos Information Association (AIA). The official-sounding AIA produced "sound science" that questioned the link between asbestos and lung diseases (asbestos currently kills 90,000 people per year, according to the World Health Organization). Manufacturers of lead, vinyl chloride, beryllium, and dioxin products also hired Hill and Knowlton to devise product defense strategies to combat the numerous scientific studies showing that their products were harmful to human health.

By the 1980s, the Manufactured Doubt industry gradually began to be dominated by more specialized "product defense" firms and free enterprise "think tanks". Michaels wrote in Doubt is Their Product about the specialized "product defense" firms: "Having cut their teeth manufacturing uncertainty for Big Tobacco, scientists at ChemRisk, the Weinberg Group, Exponent, Inc., and other consulting firms now battle the regulatory agencies on behalf of the manufacturers of benzene, beryllium, chromium, MTBE, perchlorates, phthalates, and virtually every other toxic chemical in the news today....Public health interests are beside the point. This is science for hire, period, and it is extremely lucrative".

Joining the specialized "product defense" firms were the so-called "think tanks". These front groups received funding from manufacturers of dangerous products and produced "sound science" in support of their funders' products, in the name of free enterprise and free markets. Think tanks such as the George C. Marshall Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been active for decades in the Manufactured Doubt business, generating misleading science and false controversy to protect the profits of their clients who manufacture dangerous products.

The ozone hole battle
In 1975, the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) industry realized it had a serious problem. The previous year, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, had published a scientific paper warning that human-generated CFCs could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer. They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. The CFC industry hired Hill and Knowlton to fight back. As is essential in any Manufactured Doubt campaign, Hill and Knowlton found a respected scientist to lead the effort--noted British scientist Richard Scorer, a former editor of the International Journal of Air Pollution and author of several books on pollution. In 1975, Scorer went on a month-long PR tour, blasting Molina and Rowland, calling them "doomsayers", and remarking, "The only thing that has been accumulated so far is a number of theories." To complement Scorer's efforts, Hill and Knowlton unleashed their standard package of tricks learned from decades of serving the tobacco industry:

- Launch a public relations campaign disputing the evidence.

- Predict dire economic consequences, and ignore the cost benefits.

- Use non-peer reviewed scientific publications or industry-funded scientists who don't publish original peer-reviewed scientific work to support your point of view.

- Trumpet discredited scientific studies and myths supporting your point of view as scientific fact.

- Point to the substantial scientific uncertainty, and the certainty of economic loss if immediate action is taken.

- Use data from a local area to support your views, and ignore the global evidence.

- Disparage scientists, saying they are playing up uncertain predictions of doom in order to get research funding.

- Disparage environmentalists, claiming they are hyping environmental problems in order to further their ideological goals.

- Complain that it is unfair to require regulatory action in the U.S., as it would put the nation at an economic disadvantage compared to the rest of the world.

- Claim that more research is needed before action should be taken.

- Argue that it is less expensive to live with the effects.

The campaign worked, and CFC regulations were delayed many years, as Hill and Knowlton boasted in internal documents. The PR firm also took credit for keeping public opinion against buying CFC aerosols to a minimum, and helping change the editorial positions of many newspapers.

In the end, Hill and Knowlton's PR campaign casting doubt on the science of ozone depletion by CFCs turned out to have no merit. Molina and Rowland were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1995. The citation from the Nobel committee credited them with helping to deliver the Earth from a potential environmental disaster.

The battle over global warming
In 1988, the fossil fuel industry realized it had a serious problem. The summer of 1988 had shattered century-old records for heat and drought in the U.S., and NASA's Dr. James Hansen, one of the foremost climate scientists in the world, testified before Congress that human-caused global warming was partially to blame. A swelling number of scientific studies were warning of the threat posed by human-cause climate change, and that consumption of fossil fuels needed to slow down. Naturally, the fossil fuel industry fought back. They launched a massive PR campaign that continues to this day, led by the same think tanks that worked to discredit the ozone depletion theory. The George C. Marshall Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been key players in both fights, and there are numerous other think tanks involved. Many of the same experts who had worked hard to discredit the science of the well-established link between cigarette smoke and cancer, the danger the CFCs posed to the ozone layer, and the dangers to health posed by a whole host of toxic chemicals, were now hard at work to discredit the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused climate change.

As is the case with any Manufactured Doubt campaign, a respected scientist was needed to lead the battle. One such scientist was Dr. Frederick Seitz, a physicist who in the 1960s chaired the organization many feel to be the most prestigious science organization in the world--the National Academy of Sciences. Seitz took a position as a paid consultant for R.J. Reynolds tobacco company beginning in 1978, so was well-versed in the art of Manufactured Doubt. According to the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore, over a 10-year period Seitz was responsible for handing out $45 million in tobacco company money to researchers who overwhelmingly failed to link tobacco to anything the least bit negative. Seitz received over $900,000 in compensation for his efforts. He later became a founder of the George C. Marshall Institute, and used his old National Academy of Sciences affiliation to lend credibility to his attacks on global warming science until his death in 2008 at the age of ninety-six. It was Seitz who launched the "Oregon Petition", which contains the signatures of more than 34,000 scientists saying global warming is probably natural and not a crisis. The petition is a regular feature of the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming. The petition lists the "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine" as its parent organization. According to Climate Cover-up, the Institute is a farm shed situated a couple of miles outside of Cave Junction, OR (population 17,000). The Institute lists seven faculty members, two of whom are dead, and has no ongoing research and no students. It publishes creationist-friendly homeschooler curriculums books on surviving nuclear war. The petition was sent to scientists and was accompanied by a 12-page review printed in exactly the same style used for the prestigious journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A letter from Seitz, who is prominently identified as a former National Academy of Sciences president, accompanied the petition and review. Naturally, many recipients took this to be an official National Academy of Sciences communication, and signed the petition as a result. The National Academy issued a statement in April 2008, clarifying that it had not issued the petition, and that its position on global warming was the opposite. The petition contains no contact information for the signers, making it impossible to verify. In its August 2006 issue, Scientific American presented its attempt to verify the petition. They found that the scientists were almost all people with undergraduate degrees, with no record of research and no expertise in climatology. Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.

I could say much more about the Manufactured Doubt campaign being waged against the science of climate change and global warming, but it would fill an entire book. In fact, it has, and I recommend reading Climate Cover-up to learn more. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. Suffice to say, the Manufactured Doubt campaign against global warming--funded by the richest corporations in world history--is probably the most extensive and expensive such effort ever. We don't really know how much money the fossil fuel industry has pumped into its Manufactured Doubt campaign, since they don't have to tell us. The website exxonsecrets.org estimates that ExxonMobil alone spent $20 million between 1998 - 2007 on the effort. An analysis done by Desmogblog's Kevin Grandia done in January 2009 found that skeptical global warming content on the web had doubled over the past year. Someone is paying for all that content.

Lobbyists, not skeptical scientists
The history of the Manufactured Doubt industry provides clear lessons in evaluating the validity of their attacks on the published peer-reviewed climate change science. One should trust that the think tanks and allied "skeptic" bloggers such as Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit and Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That will give information designed to protect the profits of the fossil fuel industry. Yes, there are respected scientists with impressive credentials that these think tanks use to voice their views, but these scientists have given up their objectivity and are now working as lobbyists. I don't like to call them skeptics, because all good scientists should be skeptics. Rather, the think tanks scientists are contrarians, bent on discrediting an accepted body of published scientific research for the benefit of the richest and most powerful corporations in history. Virtually none of the "sound science" they are pushing would ever get published in a serious peer-reviewed scientific journal, and indeed the contrarians are not scientific researchers. They are lobbyists. Many of them seem to believe their tactics are justified, since they are fighting a righteous war against eco-freaks determined to trash the economy.

I will give a small amount of credit to some of their work, however. I have at times picked up some useful information from the contrarians, and have used it to temper my blogs to make them more balanced. For example, I no longer rely just on the National Climatic Data Center for my monthly climate summaries, but instead look at data from NASA and the UK HADCRU source as well. When the Hurricane Season of 2005 brought unfounded claims that global warming was to blame for Hurricane Katrina, and a rather flawed paper by researchers at Georgia Tech showing a large increase in global Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, I found myself agreeing with the contrarians' analysis of the matter, and my blogs at the time reflected this.

The contrarians and the hacked CRU emails
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia last week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Naturally, the contrarians have seized upon this golden opportunity, and are working hard to discredit several of these scientists. You'll hear claims by some contrarians that the emails discovered invalidate the whole theory of human-caused global warming. Well, all I can say is, consider the source. We can trust the contrarians to say whatever is in the best interests of the fossil fuel industry. What I see when I read the various stolen emails and explanations posted at Realclimate.org is scientists acting as scientists--pursuing the truth. I can see no clear evidence that calls into question the scientific validity of the research done by the scientists victimized by the stolen emails. There is no sign of a conspiracy to alter data to fit a pre-conceived ideological view. Rather, I see dedicated scientists attempting to make the truth known in face of what is probably the world's most pervasive and best-funded disinformation campaign against science in history. Even if every bit of mud slung at these scientists were true, the body of scientific work supporting the theory of human-caused climate change--which spans hundreds of thousands of scientific papers written by tens of thousands of scientists in dozens of different scientific disciplines--is too vast to be budged by the flaws in the works of the three or four scientists being subject to the fiercest attacks.

Exaggerated claims by environmentalists
Climate change contrarians regularly complain about false and misleading claims made by ideologically-driven environmental groups regarding climate change, and the heavy lobbying these groups do to influence public opinion. Such efforts confuse the real science and make climate change seem more dangerous than it really is, the contrarians argue. To some extent, these concerns are valid. In particular, environmentalists are too quick to blame any perceived increase in hurricane activity on climate change, when such a link has yet to be proven. While Al Gore's movie mostly had good science, I thought he botched the treatment of hurricanes as well, and the movie looked too much like a campaign ad. In general, environmental groups present better science than the think tanks do, but you're still better off getting your climate information directly from the scientists doing the research, via the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Another good source is Bob Henson's Rough Guide to Climate Change, aimed at people with high-school level science backgrounds.

Let's look at the amount of money being spent on lobbying efforts by the fossil fuel industry compared to environmental groups to see their relative influence. According to Center for Public Integrity, there are currently 2,663 climate change lobbyists working on Capitol Hill. That's five lobbyists for every member of Congress. Climate lobbyists working for major industries outnumber those working for environmental, health, and alternative energy groups by more than seven to one. For the second quarter of 2009, here is a list compiled by the Center for Public Integrity of all the oil, gas, and coal mining groups that spent more than $100,000 on lobbying (this includes all lobbying, not just climate change lobbying):

Chevron $6,485,000
Exxon Mobil $4,657,000
BP America $4,270,000
ConocoPhillips $3,300,000
American Petroleum Institute $2,120,000
Marathon Oil Corporation $2,110,000
Peabody Investments Corp $1,110,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $980,000
Shell Oil Company $950,000
Arch Coal, Inc $940,000
Williams Companies $920,000
Flint Hills Resources $820,000
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $794,000
National Mining Association $770,000
American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity $714,000
Devon Energy $695,000
Sunoco $585,000
Independent Petroleum Association of America $434,000
Murphy Oil USA, Inc $430,000
Peabody Energy $420,000
Rio Tinto Services, Inc $394,000
America's Natural Gas Alliance $300,000
Interstate Natural Gas Association of America $290,000
El Paso Corporation $261,000
Spectra Energy $279,000
National Propane Gas Association $242,000
National Petrochemical & Refiners Association $240,000
Nexen, Inc $230,000
Denbury Resources $200,000
Nisource, Inc $180,000
Petroleum Marketers Association of America $170,000
Valero Energy Corporation $160,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $131,000
Natural Gas Supply Association $114,000
Tesoro Companies $119,000

Here are the environmental groups that spent more than $100,000:

Environmental Defense Action Fund $937,500
Nature Conservancy $650,000
Natural Resources Defense Council $277,000
Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund $243,000
National Parks and Conservation Association $175,000
Sierra Club $120,000
Defenders of Wildlife $120,000
Environmental Defense Fund $100,000

If you add it all up, the fossil fuel industry outspent the environmental groups by $36.8 million to $2.6 million in the second quarter, a factor of 14 to 1. To be fair, not all of that lobbying is climate change lobbying, but that affects both sets of numbers. The numbers don't even include lobbying money from other industries lobbying against climate change, such as the auto industry, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.

Corporate profits vs. corporate social responsibility
I'm sure I've left the impression that I disapprove of what the Manufactured Doubt industry is doing. On the contrary, I believe that for the most part, the corporations involved have little choice under the law but to protect their profits by pursuing Manufactured Doubt campaigns, as long as they are legal. The law in all 50 U.S. states has a provision similar to Maine's section 716, "The directors and officers of a corporation shall exercise their powers and discharge their duties with a view to the interest of the corporation and of the shareholders". There is no clause at the end that adds, "...but not at the expense of the environment, human rights, the public safety, the communities in which the corporation operates, or the dignity of employees". The law makes a company's board of directors legally liable for "breach of fiduciary responsibility" if they knowingly manage a company in a way that reduces profits. Shareholders can and have sued companies for being overly socially responsible, and not paying enough attention to the bottom line. We can reward corporations that are managed in a socially responsible way with our business and give them incentives to act thusly, but there are limits to how far Corporate Socially Responsibility (CSR) can go. For example, car manufacturer Henry Ford was successfully sued by stockholders in 1919 for raising the minimum wage of his workers to $5 per day. The courts declared that, while Ford's humanitarian sentiments about his employees were nice, his business existed to make profits for its stockholders.

So, what is needed is a fundamental change to the laws regarding the purpose of a corporation, or new regulations forcing corporations to limit Manufactured Doubt campaigns. Legislation has been introduced in Minnesota to create a new section of law for an alternative kind of corporation, the SR (Socially Responsible) corporation, but it would be a long uphill battle to get such legislation passed in all 50 states. Increased regulation limiting Manufactured Doubt campaigns is possible to do for drugs and hazardous chemicals--Doubt is Their Product has some excellent suggestions on that, with the first principle being, "use the best science available; do not demand certainty where it does not and cannot exist". However, I think such legislation would be difficult to implement for environmental crises such as global warming. In the end, we're stuck with the current system, forced to make critical decisions affecting all of humanity in the face of the Frankenstein monster our corporate system of law has created--the most vigorous and well-funded disinformation campaign against science ever conducted.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone, and I'll be back Monday--the last day of hurricane season--with a review of the hurricane season of 2009.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Grothar
One know I am never one to start a controversy, herumph!!! But has any noticed how a little civility has returned to the blog since a few have left. It may be that "good tidings" has arrived a little earlier.
1502. GW20
"SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years."

Pretty damning no matter how you slice it!
1503. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
Much nicer, grothar.

The Carol Burnett Show. 'Twas the highlight of my life, at the time.

sigh...


Know what you mean. Perhaps their skit of "How the Stomach Turns" was more prophetic than we realized at the time. The times they are a changin'!
1504. Grothar
Quoting GW20:
"SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years."

Pretty damning no matter how you slice it!


I was talking to my neighbor who is very old. She said she remembered a summer around 120 years ago that was much hotter than it is now. She was around 12 at the time. She also told me not to believe the myth about the "turn of the century" either. She was around for two of them, and nothing turned at all. The date on the calender changed is all!
Quoting Grothar:


I meant the curtain-rod Awake!!! My, getting daring now are we? You know I love you more than my luggage!!! What was that one wrote in the year books...."Stay as sweet as you are."

LOL! I'm just getting a wee-bit "saucy" before the new blog (sooner the better; hope Dr. Jeff posts early).

More than your luggage?!? MY, I LOVE my luggage a lot (and its design is very funny/ironic in light of your yearbook inscription)!

DVF Luggage "Hearts"

P.S. This is NOT the luggage I use on disaster deployments -- can you imagine :( This was a gift to myself for a cruise.
Quoting Grothar:
One know I am never one to start a controversy, herumph!!! But has any noticed how a little civility has returned to the blog since a few have left. It may be that "good tidings" has arrived a little earlier.

YEA!

Time to walk doggies! Back for "As SOMETHING Turns" later!
1507. Patrap
GOM IR loop

1508. Patrap

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



WP262009 - Typhoon NIDA


1509. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

...SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE BY MID
WEEK...WHICH MAY INCLUDE SEVERE STORMS...INLAND FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL FLOODING...AND GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...


SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST AL AND CENTRAL GA WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS OFF THE TX COAST...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
STRONG 500 MB SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA). THE GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING INLAND ACORSS
MS OR AL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF CAUSING A MULTI-
FACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE STORMS...INLAND FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAIN...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS INCREASING GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS AND WITHIN EACH MODEL
RUN. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ONE
WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WHERE A SQUALL LINE BARRELS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN
NOW FORECASTS MORE SURFACE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALLOWING THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO MOVE WELL INLAND
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ADD TO THIS THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (55-65KT 0-6KM AND 40KT 0-1KM) AND STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND AT LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. EVEN THE FORECAST
700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER THAN USUAL AT ABOUT 6C/KM.

IF THIS SQUALL LINE IS STRONG AND LARGE ENOUGH (AS INDICATED BY
THE GFS)...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE PILING UP OF WATER INTO
APALACHEE BAY. THIS COULD CAUSE STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG
PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY...MAINLY FROM ST MARKS EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF STRONG VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH INLAND.

1510. IKE
GFS 18Z at 72 hours....rapidly deepening the GOM low....from what I've read from a couple of afternoon area discussions the GFS is too fast at moving the low.

Impressive nonetheless...



We may get southerly gales here Ike. Charleston wx discussion is talking of issuing a coastal flood advisory for Wednesday with onshore flow and near full moon tides.
1512. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We may get southerly gales here Ike.


Agree.
Patrap,

Is there a rain date for your end of hurricane season party? (she says...without irony...)
The water temps here have fallen into the upper 50s/near 60, which means with a southerly wind and lower pressure to the west, cool stable air will come in on the islands. That means we shouldn't get severe thunderstorms like inland. That usually happens, but sometimes the convergence of SSE low level flow and SW flow inland and in mid levels enhances our rain.
1515. aquak9
holy cow, Ike. If the GFS is running a little too fast (for the met's way of thinking), does that mean more time to get deeper?


as well as a slower moving low, ie- more rain? I've noticed the wording on the rain is getting stonger w/each passing forecast Diss-cussin'.

SSI- yes on the wind, you and I both, more for you and your further inland areas I would guess.
El Nino is on the rise, and I think that Nida is so large in both size and intensity right now that it is able to have an effect on the global weather patterns. Typhoon Nida at peak strength was the most intense typhoon on the planet since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and currently it is still maintaining its large size and intensity at category four strength. Nida's current size extends from 132E to 143E, from 14N to 24N. This is even larger than Typhoon Tip at peak strength Link, and Nida is actually located farther south. The typhoon has been basically looping around itself for the past few hours, and drifting but not moving.

However, the scary thing about this is, Nida might actually influence El Nino by making it stronger. Take a look at the Nida flash tracker and satellite imagery. Now here's the prognostic reasoning for reference:

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS
. NIDA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, TO THE WEST, THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE
ASIAN CONTINENT, AND ANOTHER WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE CENTER TO THE
EAST
. THE TYPHOON HAS DRIFTED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CENTERS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEVERAL
THOUSAND MILES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM
MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DESPITE MINOR STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE
EYE (DIAMETER)
AND CORE CONVECTION, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT
120 KNOTS, AND REFLECTS A DATA-T THAT IS ONE T-NUMBER LESS THAN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 6.5.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED; HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN FLATTENED TO ACCOUNT FOR A WESTWARD-SHIFTING
MODEL CONSENSUS
, AND MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATING A MORE
INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK.
B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK AND ILL-
DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT
. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT
AND WEAKEN TOWARDS CHINA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE EAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD AS THE
FIELDS INDICATE.
THIS SETUP WILL FACILITATE A FLATTER FORECAST
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE EGRR, GFS, TCLAPS, JGSM, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO CENTER ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK. GFDN,
NOGAPS, AND WBAR REMAIN EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 4 FORECASTS. IN GENERAL, AN
ACCELERATED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BY ISOLATED FROM
THE DEEP TROPICS
, DUE TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEGUN TO
ENCAPSULATE THE SYSTEM.
C. NEAR TAU 72 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION
AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL CHASE OFF TO THE NORTH(EAST)
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES
, AND THE EXPOSED LLCC WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING, GRADIENT-LEVEL, NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW
. THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. DISSIPATION
MAY OCCUR EARLIER IF SHEAR AFFECTS THE TYPHOON SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THIS WOULD ALSO TURN THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD SOONER.
HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION IS CONSISTENT WITH ST10, 11 AND
GFDN, WHICH ALL GENERALLY INDICATE THE SAME WEAKENING TREND.//
NNNN


Nida is also expanding in size. At 0530 UTC, the storm extended from 17N to 24N and from 135E to 142E.
At 1030 UTC, the storm was from 16N to 24N and 134E to 142E.


Here's the current image:
Link.
Nida is still expanding, but it can only do so for so long before it exhausts its own heat supply and dissapates.


On the flash tracking map, there is a pool of up to 32C (90F) warm water near the equator that is being kept to the west by strong equatorial westerlies, and the high pressure system to the east of Nida currently extends far enough east so that this pool is kept in place. However, as Nida weakens, this high pressure area will drift west, and may eventually merge with the high pressure system to the west over China.

The water around Nida's path as a category five and four has cooled due to upwelling. However, the northerly flow to the west of the eastern high is keeping Nida alive, while Nida continues to upwell water and pull it south to the western flank of the typhoon along with the current wind patterns to the east of the high anchored on the Asian continent. This means that the pool of warm water will then be in the central Pacific, drifting east.

The El Nino this year was already predicted to be strong around Jaunary to March, but the effects of Nida will probably speed up this process and make it more intense. Maybe this warming of the water temperatures in the eastern Pacific (which are already quite high) will affect the Gulf temperatures as well, supporting a storm in the GOMEX. There is already a circulation pattern in the Gulf currently.

I've noticed many possible effects of El Nino already this November in S. Ontario at my location, including dandelions (both the flowering and the seed puff variety) and ladybugs (several of my friends reported seeing ladybugs) in mid-November (as well as other insects in the area such as house flies and even mosquitoes outdoors), heavy rain and earthworms a week later, and we've only had one snowfall so far, but we are likely to get snow tomorrow. The weather forecast here is very uncertain, with ALL of the probabilities of precipitation between 30% and 60% in the next five days. To add to that, there have been about seven days with fog in the past month (including today), and just yesterday I saw two flocks of roughly 130 geese flying south in V-formations as a group. This is after I saw some geese flying north two weeks ago. And yesterday someone I know who lives in the same area saw a caterpiller. Today, we were driving south and we saw a group of geese staying put on the ground.

I'm blaming not only El Nino, but global warming as well. The Atlantic hurricane season is almost officially over but that doesn't mean we should forget the only West Pacific typhoon that is currently active.
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR loop


It looks like there is a surface low in the Bay of Campeche and another near Chetumal (on the border between Mexico and Belize).
000
FXUS66 KMTR 292159
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
159 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009



NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NIDA WHICH IS IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 19.6N/139.2E. THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS FOLLOWS
THE JOINT TYPHOON CENTERS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE A
PIECE OF TYPHOON NIDA AND EJECTS IT INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHERE THE
ECMWF THEN BOMBS A 929 MB LOW (27.43 INCHES) NEAR 44/170W.


THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE DISTRICT MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT FAR OUT DOES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BREAK THE WESTERLIES THROUGH TO THE COAST...
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


DUE TO THE BIG DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT THE POPS
INHERITED AS IS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION.
1520. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
holy cow, Ike. If the GFS is running a little too fast (for the met's way of thinking), does that mean more time to get deeper?


as well as a slower moving low, ie- more rain? I've noticed the wording on the rain is getting stonger w/each passing forecast Diss-cussin'.

SSI- yes on the wind, you and I both, more for you and your further inland areas I would guess.


Could be.

From the Mobile,AL. afternoon discussion....

"MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOMING WEST WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO
BE VEXING FOR LATE TUESDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUTS ARE AT ODDS WITH
EACH OTHER. AS STATED YESTERDAY, THEY MAY BE BOTH RIGHT WITH MAIN
CENTER MAY BE WEST WITH TRIPLE POINT OF A WARM OCCLUSION NEAR MOBILE
BAY. STRONGER ONSHORE WIND IS SHOWN GUSTING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES ASHORE PER THE EURO IT WOULD
MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. THAT WOULD INDEED RISK
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT AS SEEN IN THE CALCULATIONS FOR GFS, THE
LOW WOULD BE AT A COASTAL CROSSING BETWEEN DAUPHIN ISLAND AND GULF
SHORES LATE TUESDAY BETWEEN SUNDOWN AND MIDNIGHT. HIGH TIDE IS 1.8 FT
AT 8 PM TUESDAY WITH A RANGE OF 2.3 FEET PER ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTIONS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY,
BUT WE WILL NOT KNOW MUCH MORE UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THE MODEL
CALCULATIONS ESPECIALLY ON WIND. AT THE POSITION INDICATED FOR
ARRIVAL ASHORE, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STEEP ENOUGH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING TO CREATE A PROBLEM WITH ONSHORE WIND DRIVING
WATER ASHORE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN MOBILE BAY AND OTHER LARGE
SHALLOW BAYS. GFS CONTINUES FASTER AND EURO CONTINUES SLOWER, TO THE
WEST, STILL IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATER CALCULATIONS WOULD BE ABLE TO
DEFINE THE RISK MORE CLOSELY."
Wow, all this talk about severe weather for Florida, and I can't find a breath of anything in the Tampa forcasts. Is this going to be another one of those events where the Panhandle/Tally/Jax are catching the bottom edge of a storm line affecting the South, and it not getting any lower down the state than that?
AstroHurricane001 Typhoon Nida at peak strength was the most intense typhoon on the planet since Hurricane Wilma in 2005


Don't forget Cyclone Monica, which was recorded by satellite analysis at 868.5 mb---no ground truth measurements though.

Link
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:
Wow, all this talk about severe weather for Florida, and I can't find a breath of anything in the Tampa forcasts. Is this going to be another one of those events where the Panhandle/Tally/Jax are catching the bottom edge of a storm line affecting the South, and it not getting any lower down the state than that?


We'll know better Monday and Tuesday how the squall line will play out.
1524. Inyo
That GOM storm is forecast to blast right up the coast all the way through Vermont where I am. Originally it was supposed to be mostly snow, now it looks like mostly rain. I was hoping for snow so I could try out my new cross country skiis. If it is rain, we could be in for some flooding, because everything is pretty wet from the last storm. I think this is one of those cases were 100 or 200 miles variation in the storm track could mean the difference between a blizzard and a downpour... should be interesting!
1525. P451
Good Evening, here is the final word of X'Ida. Please visit my blog for the full tracking of Ida.

======================================

November 29, 2009 - November 27, 2009

While any remnant of Ida was likely absorbed on the 26th I continued to follow the frontal system that interacted with it. That front eventually dissipated early this morning just short of the Canary Islands off the coast of Morocco.

Here are loops of the past 3 days, most recent loop posted first.










This concludes a nearly month long tracking of Ida.

======================================

1526. IKE
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:
Wow, all this talk about severe weather for Florida, and I can't find a breath of anything in the Tampa forcasts. Is this going to be another one of those events where the Panhandle/Tally/Jax are catching the bottom edge of a storm line affecting the South, and it not getting any lower down the state than that?


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009


...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND COASTAL HAZARDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THESE BUILDING SEAS WILL GENERATE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CAUSING
SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING SEAS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS...AND
MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CURRENT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WOULD BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NATURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH TOWARD THE TAMPA
BAY AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

MCMICHAEL/JILLSON

What????





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
159 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK…MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NIDA WHICH IS IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 19.6N/139.2E. THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS FOLLOWS
THE JOINT TYPHOON CENTERS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE A
PIECE OF TYPHOON NIDA AND EJECTS IT INTO THE WESTERLIES…WHERE THE
ECMWF THEN BOMBS A 929 MB LOW (27.43 INCHES) NEAR 44/170W.


THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE DISTRICT MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT FAR OUT DOES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BREAK THE WESTERLIES THROUGH TO THE COAST…
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

DUE TO THE BIG DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT THE POPS
INHERITED AS IS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LOL!
If this economy and unemployment continue, I will be wearing the curtains, too.
Oh, I'm remembering the famous Carol Burnett skit where she is wearing the drapes and the curtain rod...making myself laugh!
P.S. Thnx. for the WU note, re Gunga Din. Now I remember...CRAFT disease...can't remember a f(censored) thing.


Cracker Barrel sells DVDs of the Carol Burnett Show. I keep meaning to buy a set, but that necessitates finding another job :P

(Tim Conway talking about the Siamese Elephant at the circus is the funniest thing to ever show on TV!)
Quoting Inyo:
That GOM storm is forecast to blast right up the coast all the way through Vermont where I am. Originally it was supposed to be mostly snow, now it looks like mostly rain. I was hoping for snow so I could try out my new cross country skiis. If it is rain, we could be in for some flooding, because everything is pretty wet from the last storm. I think this is one of those cases were 100 or 200 miles variation in the storm track could mean the difference between a blizzard and a downpour... should be interesting!



How often do you get rainstorms in December?
1530. aquak9
Inyo- good to see you! Wow, Vermont...dude you are FAR from home!

freelance- personally, I expect this to be more of a panhandle, then east then north/northeast event. Of course if the squall line lengthens out over the GOM, all bets are off.

Tampa NWS is usually good, Melbourne is one of the best in the state IMHO.
1531. aquak9
There this is it. I've seen Tampa get blasted with less than 6 hour warning. But that only happens rarely, I've seen it maybe twice in four years.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
This is why now is an important time to address the issues of global warming at the Copenhagen Conference. Who knows, maybe we'll even get golf weather at my location for most of January to March, with temperatures to 20C (68F)!
Doh! Thanks, IKE. (re-post image of "tiny-brained Homer" here.)

As I was finishing that post, I thought, "I haven't checked the NWS feed for today. Meh, it didn't have anything last time I checked."

I blame tryptophan saturation. :P
1534. IKE
From the JAX,FL. afternoon discussion....

"GULF OF MEX MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY MODIFYING IN WAKE OF PRIOR
POLAR AIRMASS INTRUSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60KT LLJ WILL HELP
BRING L/M 60S DWPTS NWD TO GULF COASTLINE WED MORNING...POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ACRS FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA WED AFTN JUST AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEEP UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL LIFT COUPLED WITH DIVERGENT RRQ OF UPR JET.
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG CAPE
POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH IMPRESSIVE 400-600 HELICITY VALUES
ACRS WARM SECTOR. CLOSEST SIMILARITY IN RECENT PAST IS EVENT ON MAR
7 2008...WITH SIMILAR HIGH SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND
STRONG UPR SYSTEM ALONG SIMILAR TRACK...RESULT WAS OVER 20 TORNADO
REPORTS ACRS NRN FL/SRN GA ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP SQUALL LINE.
OF
COURSE...IF HIGHER DWPTS STAY OFFSHORE...WE MAY END UP WITH A SQUALL
LINE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WELL INLAND FROM GULF OF MEX. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...SEE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DVLP
OR IF INTENSE LIFT CAN PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR LACK OF BETTER
INSTABILITY."
has any one seen my post
Wow, it's so ironic how everyone started mentioning Nida IMMEDIATELY after I posted stuff about it! Thanks for that, it gives us a bigger picture of how this storm will affect global weather patterns, and ultimately increase global temperatures and cause erratic weather this winter as well.
1537. Inyo
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:



How often do you get rainstorms in December?


Not sure... I do know that the snow is a bit late but I think rain is not unusual in early December. We are highly modified by Lake Champlain in the fall such that we get rain early in the season when others get snow. This is probably an unusually warm storm.. even still there will be wet snow flurries before and after the storm... so the weather is indeed starting to turn.
Quoting Tazmanian:
What????





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
159 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK…MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NIDA WHICH IS IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 19.6N/139.2E. THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS FOLLOWS
THE JOINT TYPHOON CENTERS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE A
PIECE OF TYPHOON NIDA AND EJECTS IT INTO THE WESTERLIES…WHERE THE
ECMWF THEN BOMBS A 929 MB LOW (27.43 INCHES) NEAR 44/170W.


THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE DISTRICT MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT FAR OUT DOES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BREAK THE WESTERLIES THROUGH TO THE COAST…
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

DUE TO THE BIG DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT THE POPS
INHERITED AS IS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION.




hey guys your forgeting about little oh me
1539. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one seen my post


I saw it and said....wow!
Quoting IKE:


I saw it and said....wow!



what you think IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:




hey guys your forgeting about little oh me

Yes, I saw that already, and that's the exact reason why I posted my previous post. Now has anyone seen my posts? ;)
AQUA - its coming from here:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
330 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM GULF STORM...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER
THE GULF ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS GULF LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS MAY RAISE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THIS GULF STORM WILL
DEVELOP...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL
IMPACT THE DEGREE OF WATER LEVEL RISE. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON
LATER STATEMENTS...AND ANY WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES SHOULD
THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

$$

1543. Patrap
400
fxus64 klix 292051
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
251 PM CST sun Nov 29 2009


Short term...
some slight confusion in placement and timing of different
solutions today. But we will try to clear it all up. The 12z GFS
is about 15kts stronger with wind speeds at 30h rounding the base
of the exiting weak East Coast upper trough. This will dig the
upper trough a little more while moving it out to sea quicker.
This also translates upstream in time. The GFS cold front moves
in slightly faster than the European solution but is almost
negligible at about 1 to 2 hours early. As we move further in time
about when the surface low forms and moves through...we find this
GFS error has multiplied and brings the surface low through here
almost 6 hours too fast. The European solution does a slightly
better job but is not without its problems. Wind speeds around the
upper low in the SW are around 5 to 10 knots too weak setting the
stage for a slightly slower solution. As far as strength of the
system...the models are relatively similar and are doing a good
job with mass field proportionality. Will be leaning a little
closer to the European model (ecmwf) while using the GFS as a quantity guide.


Long story short...cold front gets into btr around 730am Monday...msy
right at noon...and gpt about noon30. The front stalls over the
northern Gulf later in the day. Surface low begins to form on the tail
end of the stalled front Monday night. Feels the tug of the next
strong upper trough digging into the Central Plains and begins
moving east-northeast Tuesday. The low begins to accelerate Tuesday evening Landing
it onshore southeast la around midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low moves
inland and starts to occlude causing wrap around clouds and light
precipitation to continue after the front has moved through Wednesday. Skies
begin to clear late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.


With concerns to severity. The current scenario would bring a
slight chance to those Gulf coastal parishes including and
adjacent to Plaquemines Parish NE into Jackson County,Miss.. By far...most of
the strongest and heaviest activity will remain offshore and near
the coast.


The next thing to start thinking about is the amount of coastal
flooding that may take place in Hancock County,Miss. late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. With the GFS too strong and too fast...we have
opted to temper its coastal surge solution. Some local guidance
tools are showing a few roads in the SW coastal sections of the
County getting 4 to 6 inches of water over them and not the 1.5
feet as indicated by the GFS. This will continue to hinge on the
exact path of the surface low but thnigs are beginning to show a trend
toward what the last several days of fcasts have been illuding
to...a low of moderate strength providing 25 to 35 knot winds over
a 300 mile fetch from the southeast with problem number one being
the duration. These winds are not over this fetch for an extended
period and will not be able to provide the amount of water bulk to
cause the degree of inundation being shown by the GFS. But there
will be a good amount of wind speeds to kick up tide levels enough
to cause concern along the immediate lowest lying coastal areas.


Next problem...rainfall amounts. 2 to 4 inches near the coast
tappering to 1 to 2 inches away from the coast to the northwest looks
like a good bet at this point. Again...this is all better than 50
hours away and is quite hard to pin down exactly who will see the
most rainfall so these conservative estimates may be increased or
decreased with time.


Watches warnings and advisories may begin to be posted within the
next 24 hours.


Long term...
next system looks to start affecting the area by next weekend.


&&


Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail at each of the taf sites during the
remainder of the afternoon and through the evening hours.
Visibilities and ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR
category after 08z or 09z Monday...and possibly lower into the IFR
category at times due low ceilings after sunrise Monday at kbtr and
kmcb. Rain chances will be on the increase after 10z at kbtr and
kmcb and will increase at kmsy and kgpt after 12z. A cold front will
approach and likely push through kbtr and kmcb toward 18z Monday and
then push southeast across kmsy and kgpt during the afternoon hours
Monday. Mainly MVFR ceiling are expected Monday afternoon. Rain
chances will continue through the day Monday at kmsy and kgpt...but
will begin to taper off during the afternoon at kbtr and kmcb. 11


&&


Marine...
a light southerly flow will generally prevail across the coastal
waters through tonight before beginning to veer and increase
somewhat in magnitude during the day Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This cold front will push into the
coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening. Offshore flow will
increase behind this front Monday night and may approach Small Craft
Advisory criteria by Tuesday morning. Low pressure developing in the
western Gulf of Mexico Monday is forecast to move toward the
northern Gulf Coast Tuesday. The GFS solution with the movement of
this low is considerably faster than that of the European model (ecmwf) and NAM. A
slower European model (ecmwf) solution was preferred for this forecast which brings
the low into the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds
are expected to increase significantly as this feature approaches
and will easily meet Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday and may
approach gale force Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the low pulls
off to the northeast by Thursday...strong offshore flow will prevail
which will gradually diminish for the end of the week. 11
1544. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



what you think IKE


See what future model runs show. 27.43 inches is quite impressive....serious system if it comes true.
Oh and by the way, the blog really picked up after my comment. See how everything is connected?
1546. Patrap
Coastal residents outside the Se. La. Levee Protection System should be alert to the Coming Storm as a Gale Warning and Coastal Flood Watch may be issued later.

2009 aint going out quietly seems.
1547. IKE
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Yes, I saw that already, and that's the exact reason why I posted my previous post. Now has anyone seen my posts? ;)


Yup....read yours too.
Quoting IKE:


See what future model runs show. 27.43 inches is quite impressive....serious system if it comes true.



ok
Yeah but Pat we get it first LOL

Not too sure about the GFS though.....
1550. Patrap
Taz..Ike is on the mark..you may get some action up your way,and maybe More than in September.

Going to be a NOAA radio Week.

Everyone in the GOM Storms Path should take heed to Local action Statements as well.

1551. unf97
The Gulf Low later this week really has the makings of being quite a potent system which is going to be causing lots of problems. Gale conditions, coastal flood concerns, heavy rainfall and possible severe weather await the Gulf Coast, North and Central FL, and interior areas of the SE US.

Yeah, I also think the GFS is probably moving the system out 6-12 hours too fast in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. But, no question, a very impressive dynamical Low Pressure will rapdly intensify later this week. It will be a very active week following this system.

Also, it appears that the ECMWF is being favored by a couple of the NWS WFO's (particularly Birmingham) with bringing in a decent polar air mass behind this system late this week. They are forecasting mins in the 20s by Friday morning through much of Alabama.
1552. Patrap
First may be best in this one Emmy..as the cyclogenesis will occur offshore of Galveston and Track Ene.
Yeah first we get our heads knocked by
storm coming in THEN it goes out to y'all

In any case - be safe Pat and T!
This is gonna be one hell of a winter ride....
1554. IKE
Quoting EmmyRose:
Yeah but Pat we get it first LOL

Not too sure about the GFS though.....


Latest ECMWF is impressive with this system too. Has it coming across SE LA. on Wednesday.

Rough week ahead for the gulf-coast and eastern USA.



Houston NWS backs the ECMWF
Trust me Ike I dont want it......
1557. Patrap
The GFSx by UNYSIS has a solution ,a Tad slower,but the track is about right as it looks right now.

This is a 10Day Loop.with the Fray early in the frame.

Taz's system is a WHoppa too.

1558. Patrap
A EL Nino enhanced December thru March..maybe Emms?

Sheeeeessssh.

Snow for Xmas maybe?
Wunderful...I love da white stuff.

We shall batten down fo sho Emmy.

I gotta remove 2 A/C window units upstairs and replace the wood sashes.
I hate Ladders..
1559. Patrap

Wavcis GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast


Click the menu on the Lower left for the wave and other models as well.
1560. pottery
WOW, I go away for a few, and the blog has a whole new zing to it.
I thought that "the season" ENDED today.
Looks like I was wrong. Again...
I'm very glad to see that the conversation has turned back to weather and monitoring storm systems rather than the bickering over AGW I've been seeing on here. I can't wait to see what this storm does!!
Quoting natrwalkn:
I'm very glad to see that the conversation has turned back to weather and monitoring storm systems rather than the bickering over AGW I've been seeing on here. I can't wait to see what this storm does!!

Yes, but this storm, and Nida, which is ultimately the cause of the uncertainty and possible erratic weather this winter, may be caused by global warming and El Nino, which in turn may be enhanced by global warming, and so on. I did mention the Copenhagen Coference and why it is important especially at this time.
1563. Patrap
Bad mojo afoot literally here..

Daughter fell on Front steps,Mom took Immediately to Hospital here Uptown..hopefully only a bad ankle Sprain, cuz LSU is a walking Campus.


Im nursing busted hand from Brake Job on her car earlier.



1564. Patrap
GOES-12 WV Big Loop

1565. pottery
Ouch, and Ouch again Pat. Hope it's just a sprain. Sorry about the hand, too.
1566. Patrap
The GOM IR Loop shows that Southern Jet eeally cruising along..and if you Look closely in the mid to Southern GOM,the Low Level inflow is beginning already.

This a BAD setup for a Coastal Flood event.


Quoting Patrap:
GOES-12 WV Big Loop


The WV imagery does not pick out the two emerging low pressure systems that could combing and bomb to become the Gulf low.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Yes, but this storm, and Nida, which is ultimately the cause of the uncertainty and possible erratic weather this winter, may be caused by global warming and El Nino, which in turn may be enhanced by global warming, and so on. I did mention the Copenhagen Coference and why it is important especially at this time.


I'm not trying to voice any opinion on the matter. I don't want to argue over it. My point was that I'm glad to see weather maps and discussions about current and developing weather situations being posted rather than watching people argue back and forth. Most people will remain convinced that their beliefs about AGW are right and no amount of arguing will cause them to change their opinion.

Again, I'm just glad that people are posting some weather maps and some great links!!
1569. Patrap
Quoting pottery:
Ouch, and Ouch again Pat. Hope it's just a sprain. Sorry about the hand, too.


Yeah,..we were just about the send her up the road to Baton Rouge in the Saturn with new Brakes when the spill occurred around 25 minutes ago. Shes in X-ray now..and Hopefully a Bad sprain will be the diagnosis.

Thanx for the words pottery,much appreciated.

I always did my own Brakes after a Bad stint with a Dealer once.

Hand is still attached to my wrist,so Im good to go..LOL
Quoting Patrap:
The GOM IR Loop shows that Southern Jet eeally cruising along..and if you Look closely in the mid to Southern GOM,the Low Level inflow is beginning already.

This a BAD setup for a Coastal Flood event.



There are TWO low pressure systems emerging, one in the BOC and the other near Belize, and they're heading in the same direction (the one near Belize looks to catch up to the BOC low).

Quoting natrwalkn:


I'm not trying to voice any opinion on the matter. I don't want to argue over it. My point was that I'm glad to see weather maps and discussions about current and developing weather situations being posted rather than watching people argue back and forth. Most people will remain convinced that their beliefs about AGW are right and no amount of arguing will cause them to change their opinion.

Again, I'm just glad that people are posting some weather maps and some great links!!

That's true, but I started the whole thing :) . And about beliefs, global warming doesn't care about your political party or global warming denial or what you think about the issue. The fact is that 40% of Americans don't think global warming is a big issue, but 20% of Americans can't even identify America on a map of the world.
1571. Patrap
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

The WV imagery does not pick out the two emerging low pressure systems that could combing and bomb to become the Gulf low.


Thus the IR Loop after it..
1572. Patrap
Astro,,is that a 4.5 Newtonian Reflector in yer Avatar?

..and whats the Refractor Size as well?

My Meade 4.5 Newtonian has the same tripod.
Quoting Patrap:
A EL Nino enhanced December thru March..maybe Emms?

Sheeeeessssh.

Snow for Xmas maybe?
Wunderful...I love da white stuff.

We shall batten down fo sho Emmy.

I gotta remove 2 A/C window units upstairs and replace the wood sashes.
I hate Ladders..


I'm thinking a white christmas for someone
Pat - keep wishin...and it can BE YOURS
Pat - just read about the mis-steps and mis-haps
isn't it grand when kids come home LOL
Hope she is gonna be okay and you too!
1575. Patrap
Quoting EmmyRose:


I'm thinking a white christmas for someone
Pat - keep wishin...and it can BE YOURS


I know you remember the 2004 Xmas snow..that was our first Xmas Snow here in 50 years,..but 8 months Later, well,..we know what came.
Som Im really looking forward to some Doc. masters and others early take on the 2010 Cane Situation in a Post El-Nino
Oh Pat please we just put 2009 to bed - gratefully it never really woke up on our side

Yep we got the white stuff POST Ike...

either way - it got ya comin or goin....
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There are TWO low pressure systems emerging, one in the BOC and the other near Belize, and they're heading in the same direction (the one near Belize looks to catch up to the BOC low).


That's true, but I started the whole thing :) . And about beliefs, global warming doesn't care about your political party or global warming denial or what you think about the issue. The fact is that 40% of Americans don't think global warming is a big issue, but 20% of Americans can't even identify America on a map of the world.


I understand exactly what you're saying!! I have a degree in physical geography and I'm currently working on my masters. Geographic ignorance bothers me too!
1578. Patrap
Im fine..just banged up the hand doing the Brakes on her car..

She is at Childrens Hospital On Tchoupitoulas
Street
,best in da city..


I'll wu-mail ya a Update when T calls back..
1579. xcool




1580. Patrap
Quoting natrwalkn:


I understand exactly what you're saying!! I have a degree in physical geography and I'm currently working on my masters. Geographic ignorance bothers me too!


Who u calling ignorant sport?

Ive traveled the Planet ,N and S, east and West ..and not many parts I havent seen.



could you I appreciate that Pat
oh yes Tch. street you know who took
me there once and it was a fun street
I think they have some really nice art
galleries???? Is this the right street?
Quoting GW20:
"SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years."

Pretty damning no matter how you slice it!

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.

A lie can only be hidden for so long before it begins to unravel and it looks like the AGW lie is beginning to unravel too.

History has proven time after time that the more people there are hiding the truth the more likely that it will sneak out into the light. Not only that, the more there are who are in on the lie the sooner it sneaks out as well.

They'll be like deer in the headlights very soon.


Quoting Patrap:
Bad mojo afoot literally here..

Daughter fell on Front steps,Mom took Immediately to Hospital here Uptown..hopefully only a bad ankle Sprain, cuz LSU is a walking Campus.


Im nursing busted hand from Brake Job on her car earlier.




Wow. I'm also noticing the signs of global warming around me, and not only that, but how different aspects of the world seem to be in turmoil. Many famous celebrities died this year, a new pandemic emerged and killed 10,000 people to date, and many of my friends had other friends or family members who died from old age, or a terminal illness, or an undiagnosed illness. This is especially true because everything just happened so fast. There were a dozen tornadoes in one day in Southern Ontario, and the whole province usually only gets 15 a year, not to mention that one tornado touched down mere kilometres away from my home. In the news, there have been many cases of children being abducted or going missing this year, and some have ended up killed. Fatal domestic disputes in recent months have been blamed on the economy. So this is a time of great adversity for many people, and it might not just be the people I know, either. However, perhaps there is hope. A large number of my friends have become happier sometime in the past week. Old trends are coming back, and people are planning events and gatherings thanks to the help of the Internet. So people have grown not intellectually or physically, but spiritually. 2009 has also been the year of activism: 350.org, tcktcktck, To Write Love on Her Arms Day, etc. And perhaps some newly happy people will spread their message globally (ever heard of the six degrees of separation?). Maybe one aspect of this new hope is to help the process at the Copenhagen Conference, where without cooperation the talks are in danger of breaking down. Just a thought experiment.
Quoting Patrap:


Who u calling ignorant sport?





People who can't identify America on a map.
1585. Patrap
Subjective...but still uncalled for.

Back to the weather..

Little bit o' Snow in the HILL COUNTRY PAT

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
VAL VERDE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND THE HILL COUNTRY. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN
TEXAS.
1587. Patrap
Quoting EmmyRose:
could you I appreciate that Pat
oh yes Tch. street you know who took
me there once and it was a fun street
I think they have some really nice art
galleries???? Is this the right street?


Yeppars..that and Magazine. Tipitina's on Napoleon and Tchop as well. I know certain Guy that Loves dat place
*grin*

Okay back to wx people - lots of stuff going on
be safe -
1589. Patrap
Wish we had some Hills..I go Up the Hi-rise on I-10 sometimes just to gain some Height perspective here..LOL
Dr. Masters,

I have followed your blog for some time. I have noticed your trend to quickly post “(insert number here) warmest month on record” while simultaneously, from other sources read headlines like “(insert number here) coldest month on record” in recent months. I have become one of the serious “doubters”, with regard to “global warming”, “climate change”, or whatever the latest quip might be.
When the “stolen” e-mails were released, I gave some serious thought to what impact they might have. If the scientist involved were having exchanges like “well, the data, or model, states x is happening, and I wish Dr. (insert name) would give the data another look to better understand what the implications are…ect., ect., I would most certainly give all this another look. However, we are treated to the just the opposite. Which, in whole, quite surprises me. Stating that “we might just have to change the definition of what “peer reviewed” means to discount the “doubters” pretty much answers what my questions were.
I would encourage you Dr., and all those seriously interested in “climate change” have a look at: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece
In essence, the original researchers are now admitting that the original data used to arrive at their conclusions “have been thrown away.” I can only imagine what would happen if I or any other engineer or scientist would attempt to publish a paper without the original data to support a conclusion. Amazing, simply amazing. “We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenized) data.” Quality controlled indeed. Value added? Not likely.
I must say Dr. Masters, with all due respect, that even you must now give all this another look. Had the original data been preserved, and others had the opportunity to review the work, truly independent looks could have been made, and perhaps the “doubters” could have been persuaded to have another look as well. I know you are now going to jump in and tell us all that everything was peer reviewed, and the assumptions/models are correct. It would now appear that the “hockey stick” may not have been as accurate as originally presented.
We now appear to be in a mode of stabilization, for which no one has the answer to. No one can deny that the expected temperature increases have not manifested themselves. Models are just models. Climate models have not proven themselves to be nearly as reliable as most would hope. I watch with great interest the various models used in forecasting weather, and have come to the conclusion that most are only reliable for days, certainly not weeks, months, or even years. We would all like to the think we are so smart and can solve all the problems we face each and every day. The reality is, at least when it comes to forecasting weather, we have a long way to go. Sure, we have made great strides, but we are not there yet.
Maybe one day, we will be better able to understand long term climate prediction. Maybe. I must also state that I was quite surprised at some of the examples you used to convince other readers, or “doubters” by sighting examples such as the tobacco use versus cancer. You noted that for many years the tobacco companies denied the link. Well, we know better now, but how does that relate to “climate change?” If anything, after reading about the “loss” of original data, one might conclude that, just like the tobacco companies, someone just might have something to hide. A truly tragic situation indeed.
I do hope someday, we will have the truth, without having to manipulate any data, or for that matter, anyone, in the name of science. Quite frankly, I am shocked at what I am seeing. But, the cold hard reality of politics, money, and manipulation have given “science” yet another slap in the face. I once had a colleague make a statement, that until recently, I simply would not believe: “…you discover (or create) a problem, (global warming, ect.) and you will have job security for years, perhaps decades…” Shameful indeed. But perhaps not so farfetched as I once believed.

Very Respectfully,

Jon Reed
Quoting Patrap:
Astro,,is that a 4.5 Newtonian Reflector in yer Avatar?

..and whats the Refractor Size as well?

My Meade 4.5 Newtonian has the same tripod.

Wow, really? That is off-topic, but yes, it's a Sky-Watcher 4.5 inch telescope with an EQ1 tripod (which cracked under the weight because it was inadequate to support that size of a telescope, but I've been able to fix it. The Tasco refractor is 50mm, originally had a tabletop tripod but we fixed it up by mounting it on a bigger tripod, made in Germany. That's exactly my point: everything in life is connected.

Quoting natrwalkn:


I understand exactly what you're saying!! I have a degree in physical geography and I'm currently working on my masters. Geographic ignorance bothers me too!


I do not have a degree in geography, but I know this from analysing tropical weather in online communities for the past three years. And I can often tell if an internet user is an American from the way they talk. I've also been trying to get the message across to people that AGW is real and we need to do something about it. One doesn't have to be an expert in a certain field to tell others about its importance.


And that's exactly my message. 2009 is also the International Year of Astronomy. Although the year is almost over and I haven't done much personally promote the event (although I did travel to China to see the partial eclipse and showed passersby the eclipse in progress), don't you think that maybe my profile picture here on WeatherUnderground may have made some people interested in astronomy? Times may be difficult, but there is HOPE.

gfs 120 hrs

ukmet 72 hrs
Quoting Patrap:
Coastal residents outside the Se. La. Levee Protection System should be alert to the Coming Storm as a Gale Warning and Coastal Flood Watch may be issued later.

2009 aint going out quietly seems.
oh dear, that is me :(
Waiting and hoping for a NC winter storm......
Quoting nishinigami:
oh dear, that is me :(


That reminds me: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Army_Corps_of_Engineers_civil_works_controversies#Flood_protection

Also, it appears that disasters and atrocities are occuring to this date, perhaps due in part or in whole to the recent adversity occuring in the world, and to adversity people respond either with prejudice (resulting in violence) or with love and hope. Link Link Link

I hope that we choose the latter for the issue of global warming. Because the next generation will either have to live with faliure due to the effects, or with the success of dealing with the problem, and I honestly think that this may be the last chance to act to resolve the issue. "Knowledge is power". But "success is not final, faliure is not fatal".

I do realise that this is getting off-topic, and that we should get back to discussing tropical weather. We should discuss Nida, the Gulf low, and the effect of both on El Nino and the weather all over the planet this coming winter.
RE: 1590


Good post.
blog died...
Cloudsat through the eye of Nida yesterday..

1590. i hate to tell you this, but the thing you fail to see is that none of this doesn't matters. no amount of data or scientific rigor will change some people's minds. good post, though :)
1601. chawk
Eagle 101, Post 1590 is the most down to earth honest statement I've seen on Global Warming. I hope climate gate will bring out the true reasoning behind ommitting and falsifying data.
Thank You
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


Cracker Barrel sells DVDs of the Carol Burnett Show. I keep meaning to buy a set, but that necessitates finding another job :P

(Tim Conway talking about the Siamese Elephant at the circus is the funniest thing to ever show on TV!)


2 minute mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qqE_WmagjY
1603. Patrap
The warming is occurring,Fact.

What all the fuss is about is the root cause.
And the data..the data..the Data..is empirical.

The Planet has no ears and could care less as to changing Human minds.


Climate gate?

Sounds clicky..but in reality,its a timing issue that was a deliberate act,to throw a Smoke screen up before Copenhagen.

Only a fool ducks his head in the sand as to what they dont agree with...or fail to grasp due to the enormity of the Forces involved. They are many.
But from the Forest Dying in Colorado,,to the Glacial Melt in our own National Park,..I sincerely hope we get the next 20 years right as to all the rhetoric.
Cuz the consequences downstream..dont give a rats rear as to what WE think on the issue,on either side.

Folks pat posts on the back on both sides of this heavily debated issue.

But thats Psych 101..we all want to be believed.
And at the end of this day and tomorrow, the Toxins continue into the Home Planets Atmosphere,unabated..24/7/365.

Lets Hope the Co2 Fairies and Methane Pixies wave their Collective Harry Potter Wands well tonight.
Another day of wunderful Fossil Fuel Burning and Pollution is ready to be"poofed".




This mid week storm looks like business. However, it's the one right after it I'm concerned(6th-8th) It could very well be ranked as a superstorm if what models are saying verifies.

Not just that but folks that were complaining of the lack of snow will be swimming in it(or should I say burrowing through it lol)!
Reading through all the comments here in this thread, one has to wonder if many of the commenters actually read what Dr. Masters wrote or if they just jumped at the chance, any chance to to spread their poorly informed opinions. It might help to read the post guys.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Reading through all the comments here in this thread, one has to wonder if many of the commenters actually read what Dr. Masters wrote or if they just jumped at the chance, any chance to to spread their poorly informed opinions. It might help to read the post guys.


You are my new hero and idol...I suspect many of the posts here have been in response to only the title...
I dont see how links to popular press and denier sites could ever be useful to a climate scientist. Or anyone that respects the scientific disciplines.
1608. unf97
Good evening Storm!

It appears that a very potent Gulf Low will be causing some havoc later this week. What are your thoughts about this developing storm?

I am eager to see your thoughts and analysis.
Quoting calusakat:


So...using tax code to conserve assets of a non-profit organization is evidence that the research of that organization is therefore invalid?

Thanks again for proving that you have something to hide.

Why else would you look for tax issues instead of addressing the facts of their accomplishments?

Goodness gracious I had no idea that it would be this easy. Thanks!


No Because they engage in lobbing and NO research whatsoever they are a political front. They can still be tax exempt.

Quoting hcubed:


Great - no logical answer to my statement, and he drags the ""Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine" out. What temperature record do they release?

But back to number one on "The List". Which of the two ground reporting groups (GISS or HadCRU) do YOU believe to be more accurate, and why?


Any you are discussing the great tree ring conspiracy 9 years too late.
actually...lobbying is expressly prohibited for 501c3's
1612. aquak9
hey unf97- you have WU-mail...little red box at the top of your screen
Quoting natrwalkn:


I'm not trying to voice any opinion on the matter. I don't want to argue over it. My point was that I'm glad to see weather maps and discussions about current and developing weather situations being posted rather than watching people argue back and forth. Most people will remain convinced that their beliefs about AGW are right and no amount of arguing will cause them to change their opinion.

Again, I'm just glad that people are posting some weather maps and some great links!!


You know if you are not interested in a critically important climate issue you should respect those attempting to figure it out.
GW and related issues to the increase in Greenhouse Gasses. (or "the proof")

indicators of GW and man's influences on it:



1) GISS dataset temps rising (if you don't like CRU)
2) Glacial melting worldwide
3) Arctic ice melting
4) Major changes in distribution patterns of plants and animals consistent with warming
5) Changes in leafout and bloom phenologies consistent with warming
6) Accelerating sea level rise
7) Increase in surface temps
8) Antarctic ice mass decline
9) Earlier ice-out in lakes and pond in northern regions
10) Changes in migration timing of animals consistent with warming
11) Major increase in ocean heat content
12) Ocean acidification
13) Increases of CO2 in the Industrial Era
14) Increases of Atmospheric Concentrations of Methane.
15) Die offs and extinctions associated with rapid climatic change (corals).
16) Documented Permafrost thawing in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada.
CRU climate data already ‘over 95%’ available (28 November)
Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed.

“It is well known within the scientific community and particularly those who are sceptical of climate change that over 95% of the raw station data has been accessible through the Global Historical Climatology Network for several years. We are quite clearly not hiding information which seems to be the speculation on some blogs and by some media commentators,” commented the University’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Research Enterprise and Engagement Professor Trevor Davies.

The University will make all the data accessible as soon as they are released from a range of non-publication agreements. Publication will be carried out in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

The procedure for releasing these data, which are mainly owned by National Meteorological Services (NMSs) around the globe, is by direct contact between the permanent representatives of NMSs (in the UK the Met Office).

“We are grateful for the necessary support of the Met Office in requesting the permissions for releasing the information but understand that responses may take several months and that some countries may refuse permission due to the economic value of the data,” continued Professor Davies.

The remaining data, to be published when permissions are given, generally cover areas of the world where there are fewer data collection stations.

“CRU’s full data will be published in the interests of research transparency when we have the necessary agreements. It is worth reiterating that our conclusions correlate well to those of other scientists based on the separate data sets held by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),” concluded Professor Davies.



Link

Lawrence Solomon: Climategate --The investigations begin
Posted: November 29, 2009, 5:23 PM by Lawrence Solomon
Lawrence Solomon, Climate change, global warming, Michael Mann, climate change
Lawrence Solomon

Penn State University has announced that it has begun an investigation of the work of Michael Mann, the director of its Earth System Science Center, following revelations contained in the Climategate documents that have emerged from East Anglia University in the UK. This decision follows close on the heels of a decision Saturday at East Anglia University to release climate change related data, a reversal of its previous stance. In addition, according to East Anglia’s press office, it will soon be announcing details of its own investigation.

The announcement of the chair of the East Anglia inquiry and its terms of reference are expected to be made Monday.

Here is the full Penn State announcement:

University Reviewing Recent Reports on Climate Information

Professor Michael Mann is a highly regarded member of the Penn State faculty conducting research on climate change. Professor Mann’s research papers have been published in well respected peer-reviewed scientific journals. In November 2005, Representative Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) requested that the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) convene a panel of independent experts to investigate Professor Mann’s seminal 1999 reconstruction of the global surface temperature over the past 1,000 years. The resulting 2006 report of the NAS panel (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11676) concluded that Mann’s results were sound and has been subsequently supported by an array of evidence that includes additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions.

In recent days a lengthy file of emails has been made public. Some of the questions raised through those emails may have been addressed already by the NAS investigation but others may not have been considered. The University is looking into this matter further, following a well defined policy used in such cases. No public discussion of the matter will occur while the University is reviewing the concerns that have been raised



Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/11/29/lawrence-solomon-climategate-t he-investigations-begin.aspx#ixzz0YIpdpTEd
The New Financial Post Stock Market Challenge starts in October. You could WIN your share of $60,000 in prizing. Register NOW


Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/11/29/lawrence-solomon-climategate-t he-investigations-begin.aspx#ixzz0YIpdpTEd
The New Financial Post Stock Market Challenge starts in October. You could WIN your share of $60,000 in prizing. Register NOW
1617. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
hey unf97- you have WU-mail...little red box at the top of your screen


Thanks aquak9. I just sent you a reply!
And if you dont want to "believe" in GW here is another reason to support regulating of greenhouse gasses is Ocean acidification.

Something that has occurred markedly since the industrial revolution and something whose detrimental effects are just now being researched.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
GW and related issues to the increase in Greenhouse Gasses. (or "the proof")

indicators of GW and man's influences on it:



1) GISS dataset temps rising (if you don't like CRU)
2) Glacial melting worldwide
3) Arctic ice melting
4) Major changes in distribution patterns of plants and animals consistent with warming
5) Changes in leafout and bloom phenologies consistent with warming
6) Accelerating sea level rise
7) Increase in surface temps
8) Antarctic ice mass decline
9) Earlier ice-out in lakes and pond in northern regions
10) Changes in migration timing of animals consistent with warming
11) Major increase in ocean heat content
12) Ocean acidification
13) Increases of CO2 in the Industrial Era
14) Increases of Atmospheric Concentrations of Methane.
15) Die offs and extinctions associated with rapid climatic change (corals).
16) Documented Permafrost thawing in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada.

How many of those are really attributable to us humans not living in a grass hut? And at what relative percent?

Why stop there? Let us go ahead to the media version of what to blame on AGW.

Here is a taste:
"gene pools slashed, glacial retreat, glacial growth, glacier wrapped, global cooling, global dimming, glowing clouds, Gore omnipresence, grandstanding, grasslands wetter, Great Barrier Reef 95% dead, Great Lakes drop, greening of the North, Gulf Stream failure, habitat loss, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, hazardous waste sites breached, heat waves, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, high court debates, human fertility reduced, human health improvement, human health risk, hurricanes, hydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths, ice sheet growth, ice sheet shrinkage, inclement weather, infrastructure failure (Canada), Inuit displacement, Inuit poisoned, Inuit suing, industry threatened, infectious diseases, insurance premium rises, invasion of midges, island disappears, islands sinking, itchier poison ivy, jellyfish explosion, Kew Gardens taxed, krill decline, lake and stream productivity decline, landslides, landslides of ice at 140 mph, lawsuits increase, lawsuit successful, lawyers’ income increased (surprise, surprise!), lightning related insurance claims, little response in the atmosphere, Lyme disease, Malaria, malnutrition, Maple syrup shortage"

More here: http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/2045/

Patrap:
Hope it works out with the dau. I can tell you that westbound I-10/I-12 in Baton Rouge have been a parking lot all day long...saw it myself. Tell her to get off I-10 at the Highland exit, if that wasn't the plan. Highland/Burbank/Nicholson/whatever is surely in order. Do NOT take I-10 all the way to Dalrymple!
Well just the fact we have burned HALF the planets oil in 100 years produces over billions I think you should expect some consequences ?


Right?>
Ocean Acidification is pretty much directly attributed to the industrial era and its detrimental effects are just being understood.

It ALONE warrants caution on further release.
Lemming Leader: We MUST jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: You know, maybe we should think about this before we do something rash.

Lemming Leader: Our data tells us that the only way to save ourselves from destruction is to jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: But won't jumping off the cliff result in our destruction?

Lemming Leader: Even if our data is wrong, we have to do something!

Skeptical Lemming: But isn't following bad data worse than the supposed problem itself?

Lemming Leader: Silence, DENIER! The data is in and the debate is over!

LOL
Thats all I need. The lessened pollution and conservation of resources is an added bonus.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
GW and related issues to the increase in Greenhouse Gasses. (or "the proof")

indicators of GW and man's influences on it:



1) GISS dataset temps rising (if you don't like CRU)
2) Glacial melting worldwide
3) Arctic ice melting
4) Major changes in distribution patterns of plants and animals consistent with warming
5) Changes in leafout and bloom phenologies consistent with warming
6) Accelerating sea level rise
7) Increase in surface temps
8) Antarctic ice mass decline
9) Earlier ice-out in lakes and pond in northern regions
10) Changes in migration timing of animals consistent with warming
11) Major increase in ocean heat content
12) Ocean acidification
13) Increases of CO2 in the Industrial Era
14) Increases of Atmospheric Concentrations of Methane.
15) Die offs and extinctions associated with rapid climatic change (corals).
16) Documented Permafrost thawing in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada.


All of these are already happening, but I thought you were going to do a list of present indicators and possible future indications. And regarding post 1590, I was going to revisit it point by point, but decided not to because I wanted us to discuss Nida and its effects on global weather patterns.

Here are some links to address the issue:
Skeptical Science: Examining the Science of Global Warming Skepticism

How It All Ends
I mean right?
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Lemming Leader: We MUST jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: You know, maybe we should think about this before we do something rash.

Lemming Leader: Our data tells us that the only way to save ourselves from destruction is to jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: But won't jumping off the cliff result in our destruction?

Lemming Leader: Even if our data is wrong, we have to do something!

Skeptical Lemming: But isn't following bad data worse than the supposed problem itself?

Lemming Leader: Silence, DENIER! The data is in and the debate is over!

LOL


That's a myth. Lemmings do not jump off cliffs.
1628. aquak9
hi pearland...y'know, I found a Wiki article about that lemming movie. Seems some folks investigated it, and found they had tossed the lemmings offa that cliff (they were imported lemmings, by the way)

They spun them offa the cliff using a turntable!!

Does this mean I gotta go find the wiki link now??
So there is actually eoungh reason to regulate greenhouse gasses UNRELATED to climate change. And as climate change makes dire predictions It only makes sense to regulate them until the science is understood.

That is simply the bottom line.
1625. actually, that sums up the discussion fairly accurately. by the way, i couldn't help but notice the nice logic trap you've built for yourself by adhering to one set of talking points without even considering what the opposite opinion has to say.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont see how links to popular press and denier sites could ever be useful to a climate scientist.


if you're only looking for one side of the discussion, you'll certainly find it with that mindset. :)
Quoting JFLORIDA:


You know if you are not interested in a critically important climate issue you should respect those attempting to figure it out.


I am interested in it. That's why I'm in Graduate school studying it. I haven't seen any serious climate issues get "figured out" on here. I'm working on a research paper right now that examines the challenges sea level rise will cause the Netherlands and the Maldives. I enjoy reading Dr. Master's posts on climate change. However, every time he writes a new one, the same old arguments start up again.
By the way I only have one handle and think it repulsive to personally attack unless endlessly provoked.


Be sure to minus attacks without discussion, links or supporting data all.
1628. i wouldn't waste any calories on that one! :)
1634. aquak9
astro's right. They sometimes OVERBREED (cough, cough) and their food is often near cliffs. I mean they OVERBREED really bad, so in that crowd, some of'm fall off the cliff.

The turntable effect was, uhm, just plain media manipulation.
1635. Grothar
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Lemming Leader: We MUST jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: You know, maybe we should think about this before we do something rash.

Lemming Leader: Our data tells us that the only way to save ourselves from destruction is to jump off of the cliff.

Skeptical Lemming: But won't jumping off the cliff result in our destruction?

Lemming Leader: Even if our data is wrong, we have to do something!

Skeptical Lemming: But isn't following bad data worse than the supposed problem itself?

Lemming Leader: Silence, DENIER! The data is in and the debate is over!

LOL


Hey, leave the lemmings out of this, it is only the Norwegian lemmings that do that. The Swedish ones are much smarter.
1635. LMAO...see, now yer missin' da point! :)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1625. actually, that sums up the discussion fairly accurately. by the way, i couldn't help but notice the nice logic trap you've built for yourself by adhering to one set of talking points without even considering what the opposite opinion has to say.



if you're only looking for one side of the discussion, you'll certainly find it with that mindset. :)


Waint a minute so you are agreeing? I would like respected scientific dispute. Not politically motivated sources.

As happened with Solar Forcing and was answered conclusively.
1627. i think you're missing the point as well :) LOL
1639. Patrap
Patrap:
Hope it works out with the dau. I can tell you that westbound I-10/I-12 in Baton Rouge have been a parking lot all day long...saw it myself. Tell her to get off I-10 at the Highland exit, if that wasn't the plan. Highland/Burbank/Nicholson/whatever is surely in order. Do NOT take I-10 all the way to Dalrymple!


Thanx for the info atmo..but she has a Fractured right foot,at the Pinkie back to the Metacarpal I think its called..so we wont be going up to Baton Rouge till 7am.

They tired and so am I.
Plus,..Im gonna Borrow a Cadillac from my Sis for her for this week,as she cant shift that Saturn 5-speed neither.
1637. uh, no and not likely and no.

i would provide you with some perspective, but you already said by implication that you would have no use for it. if you would actually take a look, i think you would find some really great science without funny games put forth by folks that have very little to gain financially if they are right.
1641. aquak9
maybe a truly suicidal lemming might jump offa cliff, though....especially if he's sat thru this blog for the past two days.
1642. Ossqss
1615. Ummm, did they find the baseline data they stated was deleted ?

SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA%u2019s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals %u2014 stored on paper and magnetic tape %u2014 were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.%u201D
[...]

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: %u201CWe do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenised) data.%u201D
The CRU is the world%u2019s leading centre for reconstructing past climate and temperatures. Climate change sceptics have long been keen to examine exactly how its data were compiled. That is now impossible.


homogenised?????????????? What!

1643. aquak9
son of a gun, Pat.

She's gonna have a weatherfoot now. She'll know when it's gonna storm, long before the rest of us. Good luck for her on that.
1641. thankfully, i have not. i just got back home from the holiday trip and have not gone through all ~1550 comments i missed. LOL
I am not familiar with skeptical science. To directly attack "AGW" with no other purpose is not constructive or the base of true skepticism.

They do believe conclusively in GW to be sure.
1646. Patrap
Thanx aqua..bad tumble down the front steps..

But shes a Trooper. She has to be at the Library for her lil Day Job on Campus.
The LSU campus has a great Medical/Temporary Disabled Help Group who will give her lotsa assistance.
LSU is also a Walking Campus.

She say's TYVM.
1645. all science should be skeptical. the null hypothesis should be maintained until proven false. model output is not enough to falsify the null hypothesis.
1648. aquak9
positive attitude, she already knows her options for assistance. good girl.
1649. Grothar
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1635. LMAO...see, now yer missin' da point! :)


Hey, pearlandaggie, you know me well enough now. How often do I miss the point??? I just couldn't resist that one!

On another note, we actually used to watch them fall off of the cliffs in Northern Norway. They really do not jump, they migrate and do overpopulate. It is a little joke in
Scandinavia about whose lemmings are smarter. And again, I did not miss the nuance of that first statement. See yas!!!
1650. Patrap
Quoting aquak9:
positive attitude, she already knows her options for assistance. good girl.



She navigates her new DELL Laptop Like me Live Blogging a GOM Cat 3plus,LOL
1649. yeah, i figured they didn't probably jump but were more likely pushed over the edge like the cape buffalo in Africa crossing a river filled with crocodiles! :)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1645. all science should be skeptical. the null hypothesis should be maintained until proven false. model output is not enough to falsify the null hypothesis.


so you are talking about the degree of mans influence on warming specifically. You should say that.
Wow, this must be the longest-running debate on something where the debate is really over. I feel like the two sides are sending each other propaganda (such as The Great Global Warming Swindle, which is propaganda).
1654. Patrap
Those Tromso,Norway Lemmings aint so Bad with a Lil Garlic and Butter..,twist o Lemon too.
1655. Patrap
I was so Bored with No Sunday Saints game..and the Blog Convulsions..I jumped at the chance to do a Brake Job today.
1656. Grothar
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1649. yeah, i figured they didn't probably jump but were more likely pushed over the edge like the cape buffalo in Africa crossing a river filled with crocodiles! :)


I believe you are referring to the wildebeest, not the cape buffalo. Sorry to correct you. Although Cape Buffalo have been known to have been killed by crocs.
1657. aquak9
sometimes this blog needs a brake job...

ya'll behave! have a good quiet evening, at least till tuesday night arrives.
1652. actually, no i'm not saying that at all. i was speaking on a more fundamental level about all scientific fields and that the need to maintain integrity should always, always, always trump the psychological need to be "right".

however, the degree of influence is one point on which you and i would probably disagree...
1656. you're probably right...i couldn't remember if they were the wildebeests or the cape buffaloes. it's been a while since i've seen that show :)

it's possible my mind was fantasizing about all those curly-horned creatures jumping to their death. the short, straight, pointy horns are FAR less fun to watch! :)
Back 30 years ago when I was doing research, I am not a phD, (MS) but worked for phD's in Env. research. In those days, the term Scientific Method was sacred. Integrity of data was imperative, and anyone throwing out data to support/disprove a hypothesis was seen as an ethical pariah.

Have things changed that much where CRU climatologist can convienently discard data that they choose? Apparently so.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1645. all science should be skeptical. the null hypothesis should be maintained until proven false. model output is not enough to falsify the null hypothesis.

So you're saying that we should ignore global warming until we are absolutely sure the models are correct and that global warming is caused by human activity, by which time we'd all be dead? That's not how science should work because no progress would be made. This is incredibly hard to understand, kind of like saying "I am not a false prophet" (double oxymoron?). (if this idea drives you even a little crazy, try not to take it seriously)

AND PLEASE START DISCUSSING TYPHOON NIDA!
1662. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Those Tromso,Norway Lemmings aint so Bad with a Lil Garlic and Butter..,twist o Lemon too.


Pat, how do you know about Tromsø. Most people can't even find America on a map. Bet you even know where Trondheim and Finnmark are? You never cease to amaze me. Hey, we kept them as pets. Nice little creatures.
Pat I must congratulate you on the saints. Revenge is best served cold. I am not going to say anymore lest I jink you.I think we got a shot next year maybe Wes Walker will come back or we can buy a receiver. But go anonymous saint fans, it can't get much sweeter. My only concern is arn't those Manning boys a problem.
1664. Grothar
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1656. you're probably right...i couldn't remember if they were the wildebeests or the cape buffaloes. it's been a while since i've seen that show :)

it's possible my mind was fantasizing about all those curly-horned creatures jumping to their death. the short, straight, pointy horns are FAR less fun to watch! :)


Personally, I like the ones with straight, pointy horns. You guys take care. I got to go.
1661. actually, i'm saying that the whole AGW hypothesis and the notion it's occurring could be the result of bad or manipulated data. if you've ever seen condition and siting surveys of the USHCN network and compared them to the published guidelines, you would have to conclude that over and over again a warm bias has been introduced into the data by poor siting, increasing urbanization of the temperature record, immense data station dropout and the failure to adequately account for the urban heat island effect. and that doesn't even address a potential willful manipulation of data to effect a desired outcome, land usage changes, the actual physics behind CO2-induced warming or other natural influences that could easily account for temperature trends thusfar.
Quoting Catfish57:
Back 30 years ago when I was doing research, I am not a phD, (MS) but worked for phD's in Env. research. In those days, the term Scientific Method was sacred. Integrity of data was imperative, and anyone throwing out data to support/disprove a hypothesis was seen as an ethical pariah.

Have things changed that much where CRU climatologist can convienently discard data that they choose? Apparently so.

Yes, because so many scientific paradigms have changed since 30 years ago, and it was around this time when human greenhouse gas emissions overtook natural cycles as the main cause of climate change.
Is there gonna be any weather discussion on this blog tonight ? What about this big storm brewing in the Gulf ? Is it a threat to Ft. Meyers, FL ?
1668. Patrap
Pat, how do you know about Tromso. Most people can't even find America on a map. Bet you even know where Trondheim and Finnmark are? You never cease to amaze me. Hey, we kept them as pets. Nice little creatures.


Well..as a USMC NATO member..during Teamwork 84 I spent 6 weeks in Tromso in a TAC deployment.Tactical Air Control..or Controllers with Radar in the Field.

Mack-O beer was my Beverage of Choice there in 84..Mack-O is the Most Northern Brewery in the Northern Hemisphere.. I even Stole..er..acquired their Outlet Logo on the Door of the Outlet Bar across the street and Brought that Back Home to Cherry Point.

But dont tell anyone..LOL
we did that last night too.
well, have a good evening, everyone. i have to go feed the baby :)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
1652. actually, no i'm not saying that at all. i was speaking on a more fundamental level about all scientific fields and that the need to maintain integrity should always, always, always trump the psychological need to be "right".

however, the degree of influence is one point on which you and i would probably disagree...


Perhaps they went through all the skeptic arguments one too many times. Here we cycle through the old ones every few months.
1673. Patrap
Your's Truly enjoying a Nice Cold Mack-O in Norway..Spring 84.

Patrap In Norway

Typical NOLA Jarhead,Isotoner Gloves,Painters Hat,Bandana,and frozen Pizza under my rack..LOL

Also got the Knife and some reindeer pelts from some Laplanders passing thru with a Herd..also a Nice bit of reindeer meat as well.

That Permafrost is deep too..at least 12 Inches when I was there.
Quoting P451:
Good Evening, here is the final word of X'Ida. Please visit my blog for the full tracking of Ida.

======================================

November 29, 2009 - November 27, 2009

While any remnant of Ida was likely absorbed on the 26th I continued to follow the frontal system that interacted with it. That front eventually dissipated early this morning just short of the Canary Islands off the coast of Morocco.

Here are loops of the past 3 days, most recent loop posted first.










This concludes a nearly month long tracking of Ida.

======================================


You spoke too soon! :) Remnants now headed toward black sea. (may take a bit to load loop)
Link
The Gulf storm is looking worse each day.
Pearlandagge you make a good point I for one believe in gw but its cause maybe a little more of a mystery as I am from S. Fl. and over the years as we have built further west it has become much drier and much hotter. I think the world has a population problem that for what ever reason is not even being discussed. Political football, I imagine but in my heart and mind I believe this is a man made problem and nature or man will find a solution.
At SPC:


Not much until day 4 then:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE U.S. DAY 4 /WED. DEC. 2/...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY DAY 5. BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW...A
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 5...AFTER WHICH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGENCE SIGNIFICANTLY.

MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST DAY 4 OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS -- WHILE
DIFFERING IN TIMING AND LOCATION -- BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK...IT
APPEARS THAT A SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST ACROSS FL AND
INTO GA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS.

WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION THUS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS GA/FL DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. DESPITE THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR
AND STRENGTH OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS.

WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE SERN
U.S. COAST BY EARLY DAY 5 /THU. DEC. 3/...AND WITH THREAT ACROSS S
FL MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DAY 5...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A DAY 4 AREA ATTM.


Everyone thanks for the Carol Burnett show tidbits, who knew it would be such a pleasant source of diversion from some unpleasant incessant arguing lately!

I see the blog is busy with weather again, which is when it's at its best. Patrap, sorry to hear about your daughter, the stress of college is enough by itself. Maybe the Universe's way of telling her to slow down? Hope something good comes out of it.

I've sure enjoyed Pottery's Diary & the music links and all while the Admins were on Thanksgiving break. I haven't seen Flood or his Mrs. on lately, hope they're still doing okay after his surgery.

I'm going up to watch a movie.
Quoting 1590. Eagle101:



Sydney sweats in hottest November ever

SYDNEY has had its hottest November on record with maximum temperatures 2.5 degrees above average, the Weather Channel says.

Only two cold fronts have crossed southeastern Australia in the entire month, the channel's meteorologist Tom Saunders says.

Sydney also recorded its hottest spring since 1988, he said.

And it's been the city's driest November since 1962, with only 13.4mm of rain compared to the November average of 83.5mm.


1680. Patrap
The GFSx by UNYSIS

whoops, accidental double-post, deleted by poster.
1682. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Pat, how do you know about Tromso. Most people can't even find America on a map. Bet you even know where Trondheim and Finnmark are? You never cease to amaze me. Hey, we kept them as pets. Nice little creatures.


Well..as a USMC NATO member..during Teamwork 84 I spent 6 weeks in Tromso in a TAC deployment.Tactical Air Control..or Controllers with Radar in the Field.

Mack-O beer was my Beverage of Choice there in 84..Mack-O is the Most Northern Brewery in the Northern Hemisphere.. I even Stole..er..acquired their Outlet Logo on the Door of the Outlet Bar across the street and Brought that Back Home to Cherry Point.

But dont tell anyone..LOL


You know the Outlet Bar? Smack-O Mack-O. Now tell me you have been to Bodø? Perhaps we are in the same field?? Or were in the same field?
You know they have closed Olavsvern?
1684. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


You know the Outlet Bar? Smack-O Mack-O. Now tell me you have been to Bod? Perhaps we are in the same field?? Or were in the same field?
You know they have closed Olavsvern?


I was a US Marine from 80-86 Air Wing..We did yearly Cold Weather training, Norway was every other year..

Shame to hear that..Those Norwegian were good to me.
I was amazed to see a 3 foot wide High School Shower Door made of Stainless too at the school where we showered. The Norwegians took and take Nuclear War seriously.

The West Germans werent allowed in the BArs or Outlets though. Bad feelings were still High there in 84.
Wow, seriously? A suggestion to start discussing the Gulf system gets flagged? That's what we were SUPPOSED to be discussing two hours ago! (it ties in with global warming see page 32)
The only thing I can say, is it looks like long range winter forecast are worse than the tropical forecast.
1687. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Your's Truly enjoying a Nice Cold Mack-O in Norway..Spring 84.

Patrap In Norway

Typical NOLA Jarhead,Isotoner Gloves,Painters Hat,Bandana,and frozen Pizza under my rack..LOL

Also got the Knife and some reindeer pelts from some Laplanders passing thru with a Herd..also a Nice bit of reindeer meat as well.

That Permafrost is deep too..at least 12 Inches when I was there.


....I pulled my harpoon out of my dirty red bandana.....

What a picture!!!. I am sure you have seen mine on the blog. I believe you may have commented on them. We may have possibly crossed paths, at least on the Permafrost!
Quoting calusakat:

OMG!!!

We're all going to die!!

How horrible!!

Save us oh AGW crowd...we know not what to do!!!

What a load of crapola!!!

Not even the IPCC is saying that!!!

Your hysteria does not help this discussion, it only marginalizes your contribution.

There is nothing wrong in taking say...2 or 3 years to fully evaluate the 'unaltered' data. Persons responsible for deleting data like was done by scientists at the University of East Anglia (UEA) should be arrested for crimes against humanity.

The weather data generated by all scientists should be considered as global property and as such not proprietary in any way shape or form. That data is about our planet, it belongs to us and we have a right to information regarding it and just as individuals who have candid pictures taken of them must be presented with a release to sign giving the photographer permission to use the photos, a scientist should be required to release 'unaltered' data as part of the process which allows them to publish it.



Another 2005 and they might.

Or if you live in certain areas of the arctic. Or several other areas possibly affected.

See this is the kind of ignorance that spoils the discussion. Perhaps that is why you come.

Considering the tactics used here I dont blame them fo being cautious OR their Emails either. As long as they didnt alter data.

They are not critical to the GW argument.
1689. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


....I pulled my harpoon out of my dirty red bandana.....

What a picture!!!. I am sure you have seen mine on the blog. I believe you may have commented on them. We may have possibly crossed paths, at least on the Permafrost!


Absolutely..we may have shared some dirt together for sure..or Permafrost. They broke Sledge hammers for two days setting up Tents the Advance Party did in that permafrost..till I suggested they use a Terex forklift to Tamp those engineers stakes in..LOL

Was a hoot
1690. Patrap
Wow JF..I never would have seen that er..one, return...till he was quoted.

LOL

The ignore feature is the best main Blog tool,hands down.
1691. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


I was a US Marine from 80-86 Air Wing..We did yearly Cold Weather training, Norway was every other year..

Shame to hear that..Those Norwegian were good to me.
I was amazed to see a 3 foot wide High School Shower Door made of Stainless too at the school where we showered. The Norwegians took and take Nuclear War seriously.

The West Germans werent allowed in the BArs or Outlets though. Bad feelings were still High there in 84.


Gee, I wonder why?? lol I would often have to speak German when I was there. Many of the American Special Forces spoke Norwegian and quite well.
Quoting Patrap:
Wow JF..I never would have seen that er..one, return till he was quoted.

LOL

The ignore feature is the best main Blog tool,hands down.


I should probably give up on that one too.
I love the Ignore button.

When people use it, the rest of us can make comments which are read by the world in general, without them, the ignorers chiming in so much.

It is kind of funny actually, being able to see them and comment on them and what they write without them ever knowing what is really going on. I love it!! It truly does make for a more quiet blog.

It also works to keep the bandwidth down as well. Not so much senseless back and forth.

Me...I'll keep my view settings set to SHOW ALL, so that I get see all the chatter, not just what a few want to let me see. I think they call it censorship, and censorship is bad, that is for sure.

1694. Patrap
Seeing the Northern Lights was a awesome experience as well.

And being only a couple of Hundred Miles from the Russians..we used to Listen to the propaganda on the Radio,right next to the Fiord there. Was truly a awesome time in my Life.


I took Plenty of pics there with a Canon AE-1. I will do a Winter Blog on that Teamwork 84 Exercise soon and post some with it.
1688. JFlorida -- please, for the love of all that is holy, stop quoting him...
bad karma
bad juju
bad English
bad feelings

"Courtesy is the grease of the wheels of society." Robert Heinlein, I think...will check on google. Gotta' go. :)
1696. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Wow JF..I never would have seen that er..one, return...till he was quoted.

LOL

The ignore feature is the best main Blog tool,hands down.


I wonder how many of these people are on ignore and don't know it? They must be making statements thinking everyone is reading their remarks when nothing appears on our screens. Much like my make-believe Ignore button I have at home!!!!
1697. Patrap
We would go off channel and say Nasty things to the Soviets in their Language,the Hi-flyers,Bears..Flying in the Artic Circle.

But it was usually ignored,.kinda like certain bloggers here..

LOL
Good evening folks! Very glad to know that the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will close in about 25 hours without any bad lasting impact. This turned out to be a much needed respite for everyone in the Atlantic basin even though the Florida Panhandle did see two storms this season. Lets just hope we see a repeat of this season next season, even though I admittedly do like tracking storms.

According to the latest computer models, its starting to look more and more likely that there could be a pretty significant storm developing and swamping the Southeast US with heavy rains come the end of this week. Not only that, but the GFS seems to indicate that there could be an assembly line of cold fronts digging into the region as well over the coming couple weeks. Going to be very interesting to watch the development of such a system since it looks like a very complex setup portrayed by the computer models right now.
Quoting Grothar:


I wonder how many of these people are on ignore and don't know it? They must be making statements thinking everyone is reading their remarks when nothing appears on our screens. Much like my make-believe Ignore button I have at home!!!!


Grothar!!!!
sorry 1678 but I would prefer visitors not read that either.

I am sorry for before but you shouldn't let these people position the well. Ignorant and spiteful posters should never be allowed any type of control of a forum. We got rid of most of them in the other blogs by being tenacious and the Wu is a better place.
Quoting Grothar:


I wonder how many of these people are on ignore and don't know it? They must be making statements thinking everyone is reading their remarks when nothing appears on our screens. Much like my make-believe Ignore button I have at home!!!!

ROFL. My husband has a selective-hearing device in his cave. (night again, 3rd time's for real.)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
1688. JFlorida -- please, for the love of all that is holy, stop quoting him...
bad karma
bad juju
bad English
bad feelings

"Courtesy is the grease of the wheels of society." Robert Heinlein, I think...will check on google. Gotta' go. :)


didnt c it before.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Sydney sweats in hottest November ever

SYDNEY has had its hottest November on record with maximum temperatures 2.5 degrees above average, the Weather Channel says.

Only two cold fronts have crossed southeastern Australia in the entire month, the channel's meteorologist Tom Saunders says.

Sydney also recorded its hottest spring since 1988, he said.

And it's been the city's driest November since 1962, with only 13.4mm of rain compared to the November average of 83.5mm.




Melbourne sweats through hottest November on record
Residents of Melbourne have just experienced their hottest November in over 150 years of records, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The city had an average maximum temperature of 27 degrees, a whopping five degrees above the long term normal of 22. This made it the hottest November in terms of daytime temperatures since records began in 1855. In fact, on the 20th, the mercury soared to 38 degrees, the hottest November day in six years.

The nights were also warm. Melbourne had an average minimum of 16 degrees, well in excess of the long term normal of 11. This made it the warmest November in terms of overnight temperatures since records began in 1855. On the morning of the 20th, the temperature only fell to 23 degrees, making it the mildest November night in two years.

When both daytime and overnight temperatures were combined, Melbourne%u2019s average temperature came in at 22 degrees, significantly above the long term normal of 17. This made it the hottest November since records began way back in 1855.

"November was a remarkable month in terms of the persistence and widespread nature of the heat across southern Australia. A high pressure system to the east of Australia acted as a blocking mechanism, while very warm air over central Australia was continually funnelled down by northerly winds," weatherzone.com.au meteorologist Matt Pearce said.

"There was a complete lack of any significant cool changes during the month. Even the coldest days right at the start of the month registered only three or four degrees below average for this time of year."

The record-breaking heat was a feature right across Victoria. Many long-standing records were smashed. Some of the more significant included Kerang (average temperature 24, 100-year record) and Ballarat (average temperature 18, 101-year record).

However, rainfall also came in above average for Melbourne. The city picked up 100mm throughout the month, well above the long term normal of 60mm. This made it the wettest November since 2004.

"The bulk of Melbourne%u2019s rainfall for November fell during the last 10 days of the month due to the passage of a couple of low pressure systems and troughs. Heavy falls on the night of the 21st resulted in flash flooding in some parts of the city," Pearce said.

This trend was repeated in other parts of the state. For example, Warracknabeal, in the Wimmera, received 89mm, its highest total for November in 40 years of records.

"We are expecting daytime temperatures to remain above average over the next couple of months, before a shift back towards average temperatures later in summer. Overnight temperatures are likely to return back towards normal as early as December," Pearce said.


- Weatherzone

Warmest November in at least nine years for Brisbane

Brisbane has just experienced its warmest November in at least nine years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The city had an average maximum of 29 degrees, slightly above the long term normal of 28. This made it the warmest November in terms of daytime temperatures since records began at the current site in 2000. In fact, on the 29th, the mercury soared to 35 degrees, the hottest November day in nine years of records.

The nights were also warm. Brisbane had an average minimum of 19 degrees, slightly above the long term normal of 18. This made it the warmest November in terms of overnight temperatures since 2005.

When both daytime and overnight temperatures were combined, Brisbane%u2019s average temperature came in at 24 degrees, slightly above the long term normal of 23. This made it the warmest November since records began at the current site in 2000.

"The second half of November saw a number of days that were consistently three to five degrees above average as a result of warm northwesterly winds. These above-average temperatures ended up being sufficient to counteract the milder weather during the first half of the month," weatherzone.com.au meteorologist Matt Pearce said.

The trend of above-average temperatures was repeated across Queensland. For example, Cape Moreton had an average minimum of 21 degrees, its highest for November in 95 years of records. Bollon, in the Maranoa, had an average maximum of 37 degrees, its highest for November in 98 years of records.

It was also a very dry month. Brisbane picked up just 31mm throughout November, a far cry from the long term normal of 126mm. This made it the driest November since 2003.

Rainfall was down right across Queensland. For example, St George received no rainfall at all during the month, the first time this has occurred during November in 12 years of records.

"Rainfall at this time of year across Queensland can often be fairly hit and miss. Inland, much of the rain tends to come from showers and storms, which have been slow to get going this year. Along the coast, onshore winds which typically bring showers, have also been less prevalent than would usually be expected," Pearce said.

"We are expecting daytime temperatures to remain above average through summer and well into next year. Overnight temperatures will stay warm through summer, but will then return to more normal levels during autumn."


- Weatherzone


That's 2 outa 3 Eastern Australian States that have had a record breaking November and Brisbane in SE QLD having its hottest November in 9 years. I wonder what December holds for us on the east coast.
1704. Patrap
Hope ya can get some relief from that awful Heat aussie.

Thats some Big High Bubble on ya'll down under.

Sheesh,man..I hope you Have access to some air conditioning.

Are they dealing with it well.., the Elderly that is?
Just realized its been about a month since I've commented on the blogs. How has everyone been? Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The Gulf storm is looking worse each day.


Not looking good for central and north Florida. Could be a moderate to high risk area.
1708. Patrap

'World's oldest sheep' dies in Australia heatwave

(AFP)

MELBOURNE — The world's oldest sheep has died in Australia after succumbing to a record-breaking heatwave that scorched much of the country's southeast, its owner said Tuesday.

Despite her best efforts to nurse Lucky through the searing heat, owner Delrae Westgarth said the ewe died Monday aged 23 years, six months and 28 days at the farm in Victoria state where she was born.
While we can still say anything -
As a lurker/learner for a few years, being in awe of your knowledge and expertise, I have had nothing to contribute. Now I simply want to express my appreciation for your open-minded,empathetic and humorous interchanges. I feel as if I know you well enough to wish we could be friends but then I feel like that is what a stalker must be like so please don't take it personally. Just accept the respect and keep on doing what you've been doing. (But for those challengers to gw - think about how long it takes to overcome an aircraft carriers inertia when changing it's direction and extrapolate that to attempts to slow the gw process.)
1.Thanks to Dr. M for wu.
2.Thanks to the many scientifically grounded, professional/open-minded/empathetic/humorous contributors to the blog.
3.Thanks to the respectful/informed challengers of the various aspect of gw being debated.
1710. Patrap
Had a fine Turkey day here cchs..good to see yas again
Quoting JFLORIDA:
sorry 1678 but I would prefer visitors not read that either.

I am sorry for before but you shouldn't let these people position the well. Ignorant and spiteful posters should never be allowed any type of control of a forum. We got rid of most of them in the other blogs by being tenacious and the Wu is a better place.


Okay. You know I mean no harm but I will modify my post for you.
A couple of other people here, respected, have also mentioned the quoting can be a problem (in a kind, kidding, humorous way.)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Not looking good for central and north Florida. Could be a moderate to high risk area.


Agreed. Will definitely be something to watch since there appears to be good model consensus on such a possible event come Wednesday and Thursday.
11th-wettest year on record, as Tasmania again gets a soaking

Persistent rains have prompted the Weather Bureau to declare 2009 the 11th-wettest year on record in Tasmania.

Persistent rain has fallen across the state's south and east throughout the night.

Mount Wellington recorded 101mm to 9:00am.

On the state's east coast, 83mm has fallen on Swansea and Bicheno, causing some minor flooding, but the Bureau says intense rain in the area has now eased, and it has cancelled its flash flooding warning for that region.

The wet and windy conditions have played havoc with sporting and community events around the state.

Hobart's thoroughbred horse race meeting has been postponed, and the Tasmanian Cricket Association has cancelled all youth league matches.

A rowing regatta on the Tamar River in Launceston has also been cancelled due to high winds.

The Dragons Abreast novice paddling races in Hobart have been postponed for two weeks, and Fishcare's "Take a Kid Fishing Day" has been cancelled.

The start of the one-day cricket match between Tasmania and South Australia at Bellerive Oval has been delayed.

The ground is being lashed by strong winds and rain.

There is little sign of the weather clearing but the match will go ahead if 15 overs a side can be bowled this afternoon.

- ABC
Quoting Patrap:
Had a fine Turkey day here cchs..good to see yas again


Thanks Patrap. Nice to be back and to see respected regulars like yourself still here.
1715. Patrap
Thats a very kind post ..GrtLksQuest


I've always said,and felt its the sharing and caring that makes this site the Number one that it is.
And when folks post as you did...,
..I know Im in the right place to lend a hand,a word..but mostly to learn from all the entries and bloggers that share here.

Once again,..thats a nice thing to say and I hope I speak for many.
Quiet on here now.
Oh, never mind!! My computer wasn't refreshing for some reason.
I am really interested in the intense shear that will be in place over Florida Wed. and Thurs. A perfect set-up is in place for large tornadoes possibly long lived tornadoes. It is very rare we get this much shear over florida. The dew points across central Florida will be between 65 and 70 with temperatures in the low 80s a perfect set up come late Wed. This is no wishcast this is pure fact so get ready.
1719. bappit
Maybe someone already posted this link, maybe not.

The title of this Slashdot post is "Where the Global Warming Data Is". Actually I don't think the temperature measurements are particularly important. Loss of sea ice, glaciers, and alpine meadows speaks volumes. The acidification of the oceans continues as well.

I bet most of the people posting on here don't realize that the U.S.A. is the third most populous nation in the world. Though related, that is another topic.
1720. Patrap
Keep a eye on the Skew-T graphs come Tues Weds along the Storms Track..
1721. Patrap
Personally..I had a fine week.

Monday we had the US Cuban Hurricane conference here in NOLA.
We got to meet and speak with NHC Forecaster Lixion Avila,also LSU's Ivor van Heerdeen and Ret Gen, Russell Honore too.

Also I had the unique opportunity to actually speak to that group and audience on quick notice, and I made a good effort to mention the wunderground.com and all the good things that happen here,as well as a brief look back at the Wunderground/portlight.org relationship and how it started here and all the good that has been done from it.

A Holiday week after that and well..all in all,..a good week.

I'd also like to thank Dr.Jeff Masters for linking my Entry thru his Blog here Tuesday I believe it was as well.

The US-Cuban Hurricane Conference,NOLA

1722. bappit
Yup Pat, good week.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Not looking good for central and north Florida. Could be a moderate to high risk area.

I think so. I wonder if ceder key will get some flooding from this one.
1724. Patrap
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity,Typhoon Nida



Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Typhoon Nida,RAAMB page

howdy all, hope you had a good Thanksgiving! (:
Before i head off to work, Watch out for another WPAC Typhoon later this week, conditions are still good there atm but not for much longer.
Cheers AussieStorm
1727. Patrap
Seems Mike Huckabee's Political Career just went down the ol',..toilet.

And I quote..

Mike Huckabee Granted Clemency To Maurice Clemmons, Man Wanted For Questioning In Parkland Ambush That Killed 4 Cops

Insanity..
1729. Patrap
869.3mb..wowsa.

Dat be REAL low.
Like second lowest in the pacific basin I think - incredibly low..

by Dvorak
WikiPedia notes that, while recon flights no longer take place in the Pacific (insinuating that the record cannot be officially broken now):

"Three researchers determined two typhoons, Angela in 1995 and Gay in 1992, maintained higher Dvorak numbers than Tip, and believed that one or both of the two may have been more intense than Tip. Also, Cyclone Monica of 2006 was rated at 869 mb by Dvorak classifications."

So in short, the record cannot be technically broken by Nida, and there was at least one storm (Monica in 2006) which had a pressure reading less than Nida,
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROFL. My husband has a selective-hearing device in his cave. (night again, 3rd time's for real.)


One thing about a 60% hearing loss- I can tell my wife I didn't hear her tell me to do a chore (even if I really did) and she has to believe me. :D
000
FZNT24 KNHC 300322
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES
MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-300930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
930 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND
SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY STRONG N FLOW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE THEN
STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT.
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE FAR NW GULF ALONG THE FRONT
TUE...THEN SHIFT NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY TUE
NIGHT...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SE OF THE GULF BY THU. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI.

...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N TUE NIGHT AND WED...

.TONIGHT...N OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S TO SW
LATE. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. S OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFTING
TO N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING 3 TO 5
FT N OF FRONT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.TUE...N OF WARM FRONT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE. S OF FRONT TO 27N SE TO S WINDS 15
TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF
27N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE TO S LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.TUE NIGHT...N OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 TO 14 FT. S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT.
.WED...NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT
WED NIGHT. N OF 26N E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. S OF 26N E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6
TO 9 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.THU AND FRI...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOMING N TO NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 5 TO 8 FT FRI.

...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 26N WED...

.TONIGHT...N OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
S OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING
TO N 10 TO 15 KT MON NIGHT BEHIND FRONT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. S OF
27N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
FRONT.
.TUE...N OF FRONT NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S
OF FRONT TO 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. S OF
25N S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT. S OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS N PART AHEAD OF FRONT.
.WED...N OF 26N S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING W TO NW 25 KT
BEHIND FRONT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 26N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT AND BECOMING W
TO NW 20 TO 25 KT W OF FRONT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING 7 TO 11 FT
LATE. SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.THU AND FRI...W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOMING N TO NE 15 TO
20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
FRI.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN


Urge folks across the southeast and Mid Atlantic to keep those weather radios handy come mid week as a major tornado outbreak could be in the works.Infact this has a chance to be pretty potent and one of the worst florida tornado events in recent memory.

-Potentially very dangerous setup-

adrian
Quoting hurricane23:
Urge folks across the southeast and Mid Atlantic to keep those weather radios handy come mid week as a major tornado outbreak could be in the works.Infact this has a chance to be pretty potent and one of the worst florida tornado events in recent memory.

-Potentially very dangerous setup-

adrian


Here in central NC they're watching too. They say all we need is a little more instability than currently forecast and it's off to the races for a significant severe weather outbreak.
Quoting hurricane23:
Urge folks across the southeast and Mid Atlantic to keep those weather radios handy come mid week as a major tornado outbreak could be in the works.Infact this has a chance to be pretty potent and one of the worst florida tornado events in recent memory.

-Potentially very dangerous setup-

adrian


Yeah, really starting to think that as well Adrian. Could see a pretty well defined and long-lasting squall line/derecho event from Wednesday to Thursday coming through Florida and Georgia. It will all depend upon the timing of the elements that will come together in this storm's evolution that will determine how severe the weather will be for those areas. I'm going to be carefully watching the models from this point on.
1738. richnz
"The Manufactured Doubt industry" - Your only point: its an ExxonMobil conspiracy - they gave 20 million dollars - wow! But the US government alone has spent over $79 billion since 1989 on policies related to climate change, including science and technology research, administration, education campaigns, foreign aid, and tax breaks. This doesnt count what the Europeans, UN and the rest of the world are spending.

20 million is a drop in the bucket compared to that. And Exxonmobil has joined the gravy train. Why not they can also smell the money.

Al Gore is spending 100 million just to advertise his "manufactured" truths and spread terror amongst the uninitiated public.

The emails werent manufactured they were real.

Destroying of data? Colluding to conceal evidence, manipulate graphs, silence dissent?

Just shameful Dr Masters and sure they have "manufactured doubt".
1739. richnz
Quoting Patrap:

'World's oldest sheep' dies in Australia heatwave

(AFP)

MELBOURNE — The world's oldest sheep has died in Australia after succumbing to a record-breaking heatwave that scorched much of the country's southeast, its owner said Tuesday.

Despite her best efforts to nurse Lucky through the searing heat, owner Delrae Westgarth said the ewe died Monday aged 23 years, six months and 28 days at the farm in Victoria state where she was born.


Oldest sheep? Imagine that! What a pity it died of Anthropogenic Global Warming and not old age. If only we had switched off our light bulbs, peddled to work, not gone for a holiday to Denmark we would have still had her with us.
1740. hcubed
Quoting JFLORIDA:
GW and related issues to the increase in Greenhouse Gasses. (or "the proof")

indicators of GW and man's influences on it:



1) GISS dataset temps rising (if you don't like CRU)
2) Glacial melting worldwide
3) Arctic ice melting
4) Major changes in distribution patterns of plants and animals consistent with warming
5) Changes in leafout and bloom phenologies consistent with warming
6) Accelerating sea level rise
7) Increase in surface temps
8) Antarctic ice mass decline
9) Earlier ice-out in lakes and pond in northern regions
10) Changes in migration timing of animals consistent with warming
11) Major increase in ocean heat content
12) Ocean acidification
13) Increases of CO2 in the Industrial Era
14) Increases of Atmospheric Concentrations of Methane.
15) Die offs and extinctions associated with rapid climatic change (corals).
16) Documented Permafrost thawing in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada.


Still not answering the question about number one, eh?

So if the data from HadCRU and GISS are "indicators of GW and man's influences on it", which one do you feel is more accurate, and why?

If it's number one on your list, you should be able to logically (or factually) discuss it.
1741. flsky
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


One thing about a 60% hearing loss- I can tell my wife I didn't hear her tell me to do a chore (even if I really did) and she has to believe me. :D

Hey! What a lucky wife you have....
1742. flsky
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Mike Huckabee's Political Career just went down the ol',..toilet.

And I quote..

Mike Huckabee Granted Clemency To Maurice Clemmons, Man Wanted For Questioning In Parkland Ambush That Killed 4 Cops

Insanity..

Hardly a loss.
For any bastardi-lovers, heres the winter outlook. I feel he did a good job explaining it to us ignoramuses.
Link
Quoting hcubed:


Still not answering the question about number one, eh?

So if the data from HadCRU and GISS are "indicators of GW and man's influences on it", which one do you feel is more accurate, and why?

If it's number one on your list, you should be able to logically (or factually) discuss it.


I just go with the narrative accounts and the simple

1. GW is Occurring.
2. CO2 is a Greenhouse gas.
3. Industry HAS INCREASED CO2.

Basic atmospheric science. Unquestioned.

The Degree of influence is more technical in nature. But that will reveal itself with better accounting and regulation.

Since the regulation of greenhouse gasses has so many other benefits that is by far all I need. I actually dont even need that to know it is good policy to enact regulation here.
BTW: the CRU and GISS data are in good agreement. So I dont really care.
Quoting richnz:
"The Manufactured Doubt industry" - Your only point: its an ExxonMobil conspiracy - they gave 20 million dollars - wow! But the US government alone has spent over $79 billion since 1989 on policies related to climate change, including science and technology research, administration, education campaigns, foreign aid, and tax breaks. This doesnt count what the Europeans, UN and the rest of the world are spending.

20 million is a drop in the bucket compared to that. And Exxonmobil has joined the gravy train. Why not they can also smell the money.

Al Gore is spending 100 million just to advertise his "manufactured" truths and spread terror amongst the uninitiated public.

The emails werent manufactured they were real.

Destroying of data? Colluding to conceal evidence, manipulate graphs, silence dissent?

Just shameful Dr Masters and sure they have "manufactured doubt".


So you are saying someone that uses their money for lobbying is exactly as valid as someone that engages scientific study and proves their conclusions.

I do not think that is true.
1747. unf97
The latest on the developing GOM Low from the JAX NWS WFO Forecast Discussion, issued early this morning 11/30/09 1:45 a.m. Expecting potential dangerous squall line to move through Wednesday afternoon-evening. Also, Jax forecasters also leaning on going colder than their earlier reasoning at the end of the week, with the first possible freeze of the season on Saturday morning 12/5/09.


-----------



THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL
LINE WED AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW AMONG THE NAM12...GFS...AND
ECMWF WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE MODE AND DEGREE OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED BUT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BAND ITSELF IS LARGELY THE
SAME. NAM12 IS SLOWER BUT WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT
WHICH MAKES THIS A WED EVENT FOR US. UP UNTIL THE MAIN BAND MOVES
THROUGH...MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION IN
PRE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MAY BE ABLE TO GET
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING AFTER ALL. THERE WILL BE NO LOW LEVEL
WIND CORE AT THIS POINT...BUT HELICITIES WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND
WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S AND INSTABILITY INCREASING...COULD SEE
A FEW ROTATING STORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

SO FOR THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF...LOOKS LIKE A CONSENSUS THAT AN 850
MB WIND CORE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA. CAPES STILL LOOK BORDERLINE AT 500-750 J/KG BUT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL CREATE INCREDIBLE LIFT WHICH COULD VERY WELL
OVERCOME THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY. ALSO OF NOTE IS HOW LOW IN THE
COLUMN SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXTEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
DAMAGING ACTIVITY WITHIN JUST STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. EVENTUAL LOW TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING TORNADO
THREAT BUT WILL BEGIN TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITIES IN HWO AND
GRAPHICAST.
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR VERY QUICKLY EARLY WED NIGHT WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. NEW MEX HAS 30 FOR JAX ON SAT MORNING...BUT WILL STICK
CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR NOW AT 35.




1748. richnz
1746. JFLORIDA: So you are saying someone that uses their money for lobbying is exactly as valid as someone that engages scientific study and proves their conclusions.

I do not think that is true.


You are putting words into my mouth.

So far as I can make out the "hockey stick team" has taken money and not proven anything. Scientific proof demands that the data and methods used to reach a conclusion or conclusions have to be freely availble to others to replicate their results and examine their reasons and logic for alternative explanations.

The team refused to part with their data, when it was revealed after great difficulty by one of them, Briffa, the paper was found to be faulty and utterly wrong.

The emails revealed that they said they would not publish in any journal, in future, that required them to reveal their data and methods. They destroyed data, didnt have a clue why it hasnt warmed in the past decade, etc etc... Quite unscientific, fraudulent and shameful behaviour on their part.
I think Nida went under 900 hPa but since there is no aircraft reconnaissance, the storm's true pressure couldn't be verified on site.

Official Dvorak estimates puts it at 905 hPa but the CIMSS estimates looked amazing.
Ok but you have other data sources and narrative accounts that agree with that analysis. So lets be honest. If you chose not to look that is your personal rejection of reality.

We Know:

The earth is Warming.

CO2 release issues beyond warming have associated factors that are worth regulating.

We have depleted probably over half the Worlds recoverable Oil reserves in a Century.

Regulation until we get a handle on things is Entirely Responsible.

Thats the bottom line.

Sorry Re : 1748

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ok but you have other data sources and narrative accounts that agree with that analysis. So lets be honest. If you chose not to look that is your personal rejection of reality.

We Know:

The earth is Warming.

CO2 release issues beyond warming have associated factors that are worth regulating.

We have depleted probably over half the Worlds recoverable Oil reserves in a Century. (reserves that took BILLIONS of years to accumulate)

Regulation until we get a handle on things is Entirely Responsible.

Thats the bottom line.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOW MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT GENERALLY HAD AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION. SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DEWPOINTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...WHILE
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS QUITE COOL AND DRY.

UPPER AIR DATA FROM 00 UTC AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE UPPER TROF DRIVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TROF HAS LEFT BEHIND A LOW...NOW CUT OFF...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT UPPER TROF...NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL SERVE AS THE "KICKER" TO MOVE THE CUT OFF LOW
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LEAD TO SURFACE LOW
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EVENTUAL STALLING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS CYCLE AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS INDICATED IN THE HEADLINE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRESENT A
MULTIFACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL FLOODING AND MARINE HAZARDS.
FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS BETWEEN 48 AND 60 HOURS AWAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME SUBTLE DETAILS TO WORK OUT...BUT WHAT IS REMARKABLE IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE DOING A REASONABLY GOOD JOB WITH THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND
DELIVERING SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

RELATIVELY LITTLE DETAIL HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AS THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC FORCING...SO WILL
GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE HERE AND THE
INHERITED NUMBERS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUR FOCUS WILL SQUARELY SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPING
LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AS THE CUT OFF LOW MOVES OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.

AS WITH ALL STORM SYSTEMS...ITS THE DETAILS THAT DETERMINE HOW
EXTENSIVE THE THREAT WILL BE. THE 30/00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
AND FASTER OF THE THREE MODELS EXAMINED. THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS SHOWS A LOW TRACK THAT ALLOWS OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS AND WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW...INDUCE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEARING 45 KNOTS. THE 30/00Z EURO HAS TRENDED FROM ITS 29/12Z
RUN AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 29/12Z AND 30/00Z NAM CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION...IF NOT AS INTENSE. THE EURO STILL PLACES OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT...OF ALL THE IMPACTS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN. WHILE
THE KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES EASILY EXCEEDS 60 KNOTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW NEARS. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE
TO 950 MB WINDS PROGGED IN THE GFS TO BE NEAR 60 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH 20 TO 25 KT SURFACE WINDS. WHILE THERE IS SOME SUSPICION THAT
THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE OVERDONE...SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE
EURO STILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...WE NEED INSTABILITY. THE INITIAL
CONCERN IS THAT THE INITIAL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND
DRY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RETURN FLOW POTENTIAL UNTIL THE LOW IS
ALMOST HERE. THUS...INSTABILITY FORECASTS IN THE MODELS RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. IF THE MORE UNSTABLE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY LONG DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH SUCH FAVORABLE KINEMATICS IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO CREATE SEVERE WEATHER. AND EVEN IF THIS
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED (THIS IS VERY LIKELY DUE TO THE DYNAMICAL
COOLING INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS)...THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE
SO STRONG...JUST 1000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE...THAT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT COULD DEVELOP EVEN IF THESE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY
MIXING THROUGH A NEAR STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE AS A SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH.

THE TIMING OF THIS THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PIVOTS
NORTHWARD YIELDING A DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE NEARING OUR WESTERN AREAS AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CLOSENESS OF THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS TO SHOW 80 TO
90 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

NOW...FOR THE OTHER THREATS...

HEAVY RAINFALL...THE MODELS SHOW PWATS GOING TO NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH SUCH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 3 TO 6 INCH
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS NEARING 8 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALBANY TO APALACHICOLA. EAST OF THIS AREA...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES
AMOUNTS WITH TOTALS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
EASILY LEAD TO URBANIZED...AND EVENTUALLY RIVER FLOODING.

COASTAL FLOODING...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FOCUS HIGHER WATER LEVELS INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF APALACHEE BAY. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WATER
WILL BEGIN TO PILE UP INTO THE BAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURGE HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN 3 AND 4
FEET...CENTERED ON AN AREA OF SAINT MARKS DOWN TO CEDAR KEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STORM TIDES NEARING 7 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. THIS IS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE TO LEVELS
SEEN DURING HURRICANE GUSTAV BACK IN 2007. GIVEN THAT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CHARTS FOR APALACHEE BAY SHOW VERY LITTLE TIDAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TIDES ON WEDNESDAY...THE CONCERN
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INUNDATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY EASTWARD TO DIXIE COUNTY IS QUITE HIGH. THUS...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS 48 TO 60 HOURS AWAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS
MORNING.

IN SUMMARY...A MULTIFACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING LOOK TO BE THE MOST
CERTAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
INCREASED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EVERYONE
IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY).
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER DURING
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH I DREW THE
LONG END OF THE STICK SO SPEAK...AS THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM (MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED) SHOULD FAR OUTWEIGH MOST OF
THE CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS IN THE FCST FOR WED
NIGHT AND WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS...THE
SEVERE WX AND COASTAL FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY A
DAYTIME EVENT WHICH POSSIBLY COULD EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATE A GENERALLY POP FREE FCST UNTIL SUN NIGHT OR
MON AT THE EARLIEST...AND ONLY IF THE 00 UTC SOLUTION OF THE GFS IS
CORRECT AND THE EARLIER 12 UTC EURO IS INCORRECT. HOWEVER
...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE BALL GAME...THERE IS A NEW
POTENTIAL PROBLEM THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH...AND THAT WILL BE
THE CONCERN FOR SOME VERY LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING (WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR IDEAL...DESPITE RISING 850 MB TEMPS).
I`M NOT SURE IF THIS HAS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA...BUT SOME OF THE RAW MEX GRIDS WOULD ACTUALLY SKIP
RIGHT OVER A FREEZE...DIRECTLY TO A HARD FREEZE ON SATURDAY MORNING!
AM OBVIOUSLY NOT READY TO GO THIS FAR OUT ON A LIMB AT THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT A POSSIBLE LONG DURATION RADIATIONAL FREEZE IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
...WITH AN ADVECTION FREEZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SE
AL AND THE NW CORNER OF SW GA. AFTER LOADING THE RAW GFS 40 MODEL
OUTPUT (WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT) WILL LIKELY USE A BLEND OF THIS
WITH THE MEX AND GRIDDED MOS AS A STARTING POINT. ALL INTERESTS ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FCSTS FROM THE NATIONAL WX
SERVICE...AS A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION
COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUTDOOR PLANTS AND EVENT
PLANNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS VOLATILE AS IT EXPECTED TO BE FOR OUR
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE NEXT 24 HRS COULD BE
A BIT INTERESTING WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AS MOSTLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS (WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 3-4KFT
CIGS) PRECEDE THE APPROACH OF WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS ARRIVES...TLH AND VLD MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IF ALLOWED TO RADIATE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. ON MONDAY...
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO BE TO THE WEST IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS BY 06 UTC ON TUE.
Link
What an outbreak! We could be dealing with a moderate risk for Northern/Central Florida Wednesday. We normally don't get those lol. The ingredients are looking to come together well for damaging winds and tornadoes. A massive squall line indeed!
Gonna get intersting here on the west-side this week!
1756. RTLSNK
1757. RTLSNK
1758. RTLSNK
1759. aquak9
good morning WU-Bloggers.

Ike- wear something flourescent, and wave as you float by-
I'll toss ya a life ring.
1760. IKE
From that Tallahassee discussion...

"AS WITH ALL STORM SYSTEMS...ITS THE DETAILS THAT DETERMINE HOW
EXTENSIVE THE THREAT WILL BE. THE 30/00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
AND FASTER OF THE THREE MODELS EXAMINED. THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS SHOWS A LOW TRACK THAT ALLOWS OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS AND WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW...INDUCE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEARING 45 KNOTS.
THE 30/00Z EURO HAS TRENDED FROM ITS 29/12Z
RUN AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 29/12Z AND 30/00Z NAM CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION...IF NOT AS INTENSE. THE EURO STILL PLACES OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT."
.............

6Z GFS @ 54 hours...

1761. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
good morning WU-Bloggers.

Ike- wear something flourescent, and wave as you float by-
I'll toss ya a life ring.


LOL....it's nice out now....just took my black poodle out for a morning smell and sniff. Partly cloudy and 56.7 degrees.
1763. aquak9
yeah, Ike...it's nice here, too.

(shrugs)
1764. aquak9
EEEK! StormW at this hour? I'm still in my bathrobe!

(runs off)
1766. IKE
From Mobile,AL. discussion....

"TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START OUT
FAIRLY DECENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING THE THICKER CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF FOR A BRIEF TIME. AS THE DAY GOES ON...LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND HEAD THIS WAY. GFS
AND EURO HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE EURO
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AND ITS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WEST. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME HEAVIER WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO COASTAL ALABAMA AROUND DARK AND MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 4 TO 6 INCHES
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARER THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
AS THE SHEAR INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET(BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KNOTS) APPROACHING THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE IN THE ZONES.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT TIDES TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET FOR TOTALS OF 3 AND A HALF
TO 4 AND A HALF. THIS WOULD PUT WATER ACROSS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND...SOME OF THE BEACH ROADS AROUND CODEN AND BAYOU LA
BATRE...IN THE FORT PICKENS AREA AND THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY AND THE
OTHER AREAS PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
MAY
NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR WARNING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AND THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING."
1767. IKE
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF WIND DRIVEN TIDES AND LARGE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO
4 FEET FROM LOW TIDE IN THE MORNING TO HIGH TIDE IN THE EVENING
TUESDAY. AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST.
WATER LEVELS WILL DROP AND END THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

1769. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Mornin' IKE.


Good morning.

Looks like I'll get my first freeze after this impressive low moves out....

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 28.
1770. aquak9
dangit, Ike, you're inland...you're liable to see that freeze happen.

As you float by, I can toss some firewood at ya, too...
1772. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
dangit, Ike, you're inland...you're liable to see that freeze happen.

As you float by, I can toss some firewood at ya, too...


LOL.

Quoting StormW:


Brrrrrrr!


I'm usually a few degrees warmer. Probably near 32 for me.
Good Morning Senior Chief, Good Morning Ike
1774. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Senior Chief, Good Morning Ike


Mornin....


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE IMPACT...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TRI-STATE AREA. A
SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD REACH 6 OR MORE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. AT THIS TIME THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
SURF...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND COASTAL
FLOODING.

THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM WAKULLA COUNTY EASTWARD DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY
WESTWARD. WHILE STORM TIDES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COASTLINE...LARGE AND BATTERING SURF IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AND WASH OUT VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INLAND. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DUE TO RUNOFF FROM ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.
1776. P451
Looks like it will be a big storm after all.

East-Central New Jersey

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS OF RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
Quoting IKE:


LOL....it's nice out now....just took my black poodle out for a morning smell and sniff. Partly cloudy and 56.7 degrees.


Morning smell and sniff, good one!! You forgot the other "s"... stop. Puppies gotta check their p-mail. 59 F with 93% humidity here in Naples. Cool and wet morning for the 3 "s"s.
1778. P451
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH DIVING SOUTH TO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH A CLOSED LOW OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION`S CLOSED LOW IS DEEPING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE APPALACHIAN COUNTRY. EARLIER RUNS HAD THE LOW MOVING
CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THE CENTER PASSING OVER THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG AND
IS FORCING THE LOW FARTHER INLAND. WE`RE IN FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WINDS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS TYPCICAL WITH
THIS SET UP. THE WINDS AT 80H ARE 70 TO 80 KNOTS AND ANY
CONVECTION COULD BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT IS
ONE CAVEAT. THE OTHER IS THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
BRING NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COAST AND WITH IT,
SOME RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. WHILE THE FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL SOUTH
TO NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED SERIOUS BEACH
EROSION AND COULD SEE ABOUT A 12 -18 HOUR PERIOD OF POWER BREAKING
WAVES ON THE BEACH.

THE BUOY OFFSHORE IS FORECASTING 15 FEET BUT ITS THE WIND WAVE
DIRECTION THAT IS A LITTLE TROUBLING. WE GENERATE REALIZE ABOUT
HALF THE BUOY WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE BEACH OR IN THIS CASE 7 TO 8
FEET PROVIDING THE FOLLOWING FORECAST FROM THE WAVE WATCH DON`T GO
ANY HEIGHER. IN ANY EVENT...I`LL BE ISSUING A NS FOR THE SHORE
POINTS TO ALERT THEM TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY WAVE ACTION.
THIS IS NOT A NOR`EASTER BUT WILL STILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND
WAVES WITH THE HIGH PARKED TO THE EAST THIS TIME. THE PEAK TIME
FOR THE ACTION AT THIS TIME IS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MID
MORNING THURSDAY.

THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW. THE MAX QPF WILL RUN UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST
MODELS KEEP THE LOW INLAND WITH THE GFS THE DEEPEST(983MB) MAX QPF
WILL BE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ALONG THE COAST TO THE
CAROLINA`S. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW IS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING JUST OFFSHORE AS THE WINDS
TURN AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS CRANKING UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
THURSDAY. AS STHE LOW TRACKS WELL INTO EASTERN CANADA THE COLDEST
AIR REMAINS OVER TO OUR WEST. ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VERY COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO MAKE SURE THAT IT IS SNOW SHOWERS.
1779. Patrap
G'morning wu-lander's



447
fxus64 klix 301031
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
431 am CST Monday Nov 30 2009


Short term...
no surprises early this morning. Regional radars clearly depict
location of cold front across northern and western la. The majority
of showers and storms are Post frontal. The boundary will continue
southeastward and should reach northwestern portions of the County Warning Area later this
morning. A few light echos have begun showing up on radar just north
of mcb. Will likely have more light showers develop out ahead of the
boundary before it moves in. The rain will shift south and eastward
during the afternoon with only chnc probability of precipitation along northern zones after
18z. A general coverage of one half inch will be most common across
the area but localized higher amounts are likely. Development of
thunderstorms will be fairly limited due to lack of significant
instability. Little to no cape and Li/S not much lower than 0. The
best shot for storms will be offshore later this afternoon.


High temperature forecast is rather difficult today. Dense cloudcover and
rain associated with the cold front will limit insolation in
northern zones while southern half should have more time to warm
into the lower 70s. Its all about timing and have gone with model
consensus on frontal passage to adjust highs.


The cold front will continue southward into the northern
Gulf...likely past coastal water zone areas. Showers will be
confined mainly to coastal la parishes and coastal waters overnight.
Should see a 10 to 15 degree drop from previous nighttime lows as
cooler air moves in behind the front.


Long term...
a more complex weather scenario to develop early this week. Upper
low currently cut off just south of Arizona will shift eastward towards
the area as an upper trough dips southward just east of The Rockies.

Strong cyclogenesis to occur in the western Gulf Tuesday.

This
surface low will approach the Gulf Coast Tuesday evening. Same story
today in terms of the track of this low. European model (ecmwf) remains in The Middle
Ground with NAM more northerly and GFS to the south. Have kept the
forecast to go along with the Euro. Abundant moisture will surge into
the area with strong onshore flow. Model soundings indicate precipitable waters
reaching 2 inches Tuesday night. This time period is when most of
the action will take place. Models have been steadily indicating a
swath of 3-5 inches along southern zones. The possibility exits that
a Flood Watch will have to eventually be issued for these areas. The
main reason for holding off...at least on this shift...is the fact
that current ffg numbers are still quite high at around 3 inches for
1 hour and 5 inches for 6 hours.


The main upper low will be absorbed by aforementioned northern trough
as it tracks northeastward on Wednesday. This deep trough will dig for in the
region. Models are indicating 1000-500mb thicknesses to drop very
low for this time of year across the area...in the 530dm range.
Current freeze line along and north of I-12 could even be a
conservative one if all stays the same. Otherwise...no rain expected
until possibly next weekend.


Meffer
&&
1780. Patrap
Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 4:50 AM CST on November 30, 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
late Tuesday night...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
late Tuesday night.

A strong low pressure area... with gale force winds up to 40 mph
with higher gusts... is expected to develop in the northwest Gulf
of Mexico tonight and move across the central Gulf Coast region
late Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. Moderate to strong
northeast winds tonight and Tuesday morning will becoming east to
southeast and continue to increase Tuesday afternoon... then remain
strong out of the south and southeast 30 to 40 mph with some
higher gusts in coastal sections through much of Tuesday night.

The combination of wind driven tides and large astronomical tide
ranges are expected to cause a rapid rise in water levels of 3 to
4 feet from low tide in the morning to high tide in the evening
Tuesday. Areas of coastal flooding are likely to develop outside
of hurricane protection levees near the tidal lakes and coast.
Water levels will drop and end the coastal flooding threat late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as winds shift to westerly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
1781. Patrap
1782. Patrap
The UNYSIS GFSx is telling us to GET READY for a significant GOM Fray..then inland around Se. La. and then points Ene



1783. P451
This is going to be impressive isn't it. Dangerous too. Start preparations now.

1784. SQUAWK
Well Ike, if you are not gonna, guess I'll hafta.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
1785. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
Well Ike, if you are not gonna, guess I'll hafta.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN


LOL....

2 more TWO's to go....

17 hours...
32 minutes left...and then I can start the countdown until the 2010 season starts.
1786. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:


LOL....

2 more TWO's to go....

17 hours...
32 minutes left...and then I can start the countdown until the 2010 season starts.


2???? I thought today was the last one.
morning
Today marks the official end of the 2009 atlantic hurricane season. This year was a good one for the eastern caribbean islands and we are very thankful, that we were spared the ravages and loss of life,which we have experienced the last few years. we hope that the coming years will be just like 2009.
At this point i will like to say it was again interesting to be on this blog, even though it was contentious at times. Looking forward to very interesting , productive and educational discussions ,during the 2010 hurricane season.
Wishing everyone HAPPY HOLIDAYS.

SEE YOU ALL NEXT HURRICANE SEASON
1788. P451
36 Hour WV Loop

1789. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


2???? I thought today was the last one.


Two more Tropical Weather Outlooks...1 pm EST and the last one at 7 pm EST.
1790. P451
Quoting IKE:


LOL....

2 more TWO's to go....

17 hours...
32 minutes left...and then I can start the countdown until the 2010 season starts.


LOL!
1791. hcubed
Quoting JFLORIDA:
BTW: the CRU and GISS data are in good agreement. So I dont really care.


Both in good agreement - wow.

That sure is proof of GW.
1792. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:


Two more Tropical Weather Outlooks...1 pm EST and the last one at 7 pm EST.


Oh Duh me!!! LOL OK, it is the last day and I am gonna post it a little prematurely.

1793. P451
5- Day Accumulated QPF


00Z



12Z

1794. Patrap
No one doubts the Warming..its occurring..and one can say that the squabbles are about the root cause.

The warming is well documented and accepted.
Cept save for some..er..,who cling to the personal view.

But thats OK,as the Planet could care less what we think.
She can snuff us out like a bad Dream.

Easily.
high impacting weather event for north gulf coast from e tex to fla ne ward

what happen i kill the blog or what
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROFL. My husband has a selective-hearing device in his cave. (night again, 3rd time's for real.)


That sounds like a denial technique. Shut out the information and you won't hear it. But that doesn't make it not there.
hey astro looks like our area in southern ont gets its first winter storm poss by thur night into friday
where did everyone go
1800. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where did everyone go


You ran em all off...lol.

I'm getting ready for work.
This system has the potential to be much worse on the north central Gom than either Ida or Claudette, (both were darn near non-events) yet absolutely no mention of it in the Pensacola Mullet Wrapper this mornng. I guess weather systems dont get no love from the media unless thay have a name attached to them.
Highest wind gust at my house (and I live right by the water) during IDA was 22 MPH. I'm curious to see how this low measures up. I got a new weather station set up here compliments of Cyclone Oz. I'll post the stats on this system periodically during the event.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what happen i kill the blog or what



I thought only I did that!
1803. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This system has the potential to be much worse on the north central Gom than either Ida or Claudette, (both were darn near non-events) yet absolutely no mention of it in the Penscala Mullet Wrapper this mornng. I guess weather systems dont get no love from the media unless thay have a name attached to them.
Highest wind gust at my house (and I live right by the water) during IDA was 22 MPH. I'm curious to see how this low measures up. I got a new weather station set up here compliments of Cyclone Oz. I'll post the stats on this system periodically during the event.


That's exactly what it is...it will have no-name, so they don't talk about it.

Nothing on the NW FL. Daily News website either.

And I agree...Claudette and Ida were non-events here too.
for Ida they cancelled school for two days. It rained about an inch or so and wind blew 15 mph!
Quoting IKE:


You ran em all off...lol.

I'm getting ready for work.
iam ready for work to just finished up now gettin 2nd cup coffee then out the door at 9
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
for Ida they cancelled school for two days. It rained about an inch or so and wind blew 15 mph!
it had a name and recorded history
the entire basin got lucky this year and we all know that
Lets name this one!

Hmmm..... how bout

Winter-Low "Bob"... since this is the second one recently.


OMG! WL BOB is Commin'!

Hide the women and children!
1797. AstroHurricane001 1:01 PM GMT on November 30, 2009

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
ROFL. My husband has a selective-hearing device in his cave. (night again, 3rd time's for real.)

That sounds like a denial technique. Shut out the information and you won't hear it. But that doesn't make it not there.


But the husband keeps trying, denial works very well for him a great deal of the time, except when it doesn't, e.g., --"your son"--"your grandkids"--"your dogs" (while the dogs vie over the spot next to him on the couch.)
Was it Amy Pohler who used to do the skits, as a hyper little girl with her step-dad "Rick"? I couldn't stop laughing while hubby groaned and rolled his eyes.


STORM "BOB"
MARK
29N/90W


lol
1811. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
for Ida they cancelled school for two days. It rained about an inch or so and wind blew 15 mph!


Same here. They closed the courthouse at noon Monday and all day Tuesday for an afternoon thundershower.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the entire basin got lucky this year and we all know that


No doubt we got lucky this season.,
Don't mistake me for someone who wants to see a
real storm here but I woulda liked to have seen a few gusts in 50 range. We can handle that just fine.
I don't know if this has been posted before, but becasue of a poor catch of the fall chum salmon run on the Yukon River, many sled dogs in the Yokon River area facing starbation.

Link to an article in the Fairbanks, AK paper.

SLED DOG FOOD SHORTAGE
iam gone bb at lunch
Quoting lawntonlookers:
I don't know if this has been posted before, but becasue of a poor catch of the fall chum salmon run on the Yukon River, many sled dogs in the Yokon River area facing starbation.

Link to an article in the Fairbanks, AK paper.

SLED DOG FOOD SHORTAGE


Thank you for posting. There's a couple folks around here with rescue Husky dogs. A lot of us have rescue dogs across several neighborhoods. I'll see if anyone has more info on this or any ideas, maybe call the writer of the article. Pls. let us know if you hear anything more.

And good morning, all. TWC said Rhode Island got some bad weather, wind I think. Anyone from New England on, or see/hear anything?
Quoting Patrap:
The warming is occurring,Fact.

What all the fuss is about is the root cause.
And the data..the data..the Data..is empirical.

The Planet has no ears and could care less as to changing Human minds.


Climate gate?

Sounds clicky..but in reality,its a timing issue that was a deliberate act,to throw a Smoke screen up before Copenhagen.

Only a fool ducks his head in the sand as to what they dont agree with...or fail to grasp due to the enormity of the Forces involved. They are many.
But from the Forest Dying in Colorado,,to the Glacial Melt in our own National Park,..I sincerely hope we get the next 20 years right as to all the rhetoric.
Cuz the consequences downstream..dont give a rats rear as to what WE think on the issue,on either side.

Folks pat posts on the back on both sides of this heavily debated issue.

But thats Psych 101..we all want to be believed.
And at the end of this day and tomorrow, the Toxins continue into the Home Planets Atmosphere,unabated..24/7/365.

Lets Hope the Co2 Fairies and Methane Pixies wave their Collective Harry Potter Wands well tonight.
Another day of wunderful Fossil Fuel Burning and Pollution is ready to be"poofed".






Now THIS is an excellent post. Let's stop polluting, bottom line. Why isn't that a common want among all human beings? You wouldn't dump nuclear waste in your own backyard or let your car's exhaust pipe supply the air into your home so why would you want to pollute the air outside? All things being equal, I think eliminating pollution is a good thing, can we all at least agree on that?
Excerpts from the weekend's National Situation Update (just got posted, but still relevant.)

U.S. Hazards Assessment

Valid Monday, Nov 30, 2009 - Friday, Dec 11, 2009
Synopsis: A strong upper-level low pressure system is forecast to track eastward across northern Mexico into southern Texas early in the week. This may result in a wintry mix of rain and snow in southern areas not accustom to wintry weather, especially this time of the year. Farther east, a developing low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to travel northeastward across the Southeast, bringing heavy rain and the threat of flooding to the Gulf Coast. In Alaska, two or more major Pacific storm systems are expected to strike the state with high winds, heavy snow and rain.

Hazards
• Nov 30 – Dec 1 and Dec 4 – 6: High winds and waves across the Aleutians, western and southern Alaska
• Nov 30 - Dec 1: A wintry mix with heavy mountain snows from southern New Mexico into western Texas.
• Nov 30 - Dec 2: Heavy rain and flooding across the Gulf Coast region.
• Ongoing river flooding in Illinois and Louisiana.
• Nov 30: Critical fire conditions in southern California.(NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php )

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Severe Weather PDAs
Storms created by Nor’easter November 13-14, 2009:
North Carolina:
PA PDAs continue in three counties
Storms created by Tropical Storm Ida on October 28, 2009:
Louisiana:
IA and PA PDAs continue in three parishes
Alabama:
PA PDAs continue in two counties
Winter Storms on November 16, 2009:
Nebraska:
PA PDAs continue for seven counties in Nebraska
Kansas:
PA PDAs for Kansas scheduled to begin on December 1 for 17 counties

Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, November 27, 2009
Initial attack activity: Light (89 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 3
Uncontained large fires: 0
States affected: KY & MN(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On November 25, 2009 the Governor of New Jersey requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Severe Storms and Flooding (remnants of Tropical Storm Ida and coastal Nor’easter) that occurred November 11-15, 2009. The request is for Public Assistance for three counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Last Modified: Monday, 30-Nov-2009 06:02:06 EST
Quoting IKE:


LOL....it's nice out now....just took my black poodle out for a morning smell and sniff. Partly cloudy and 56.7 degrees.


Wow, we were actually colder this morning at 49 here in N. Ft Myers, FL. Strange...usually North Fl is much colder.
Quoting Patrap:
The warming is occurring,Fact.

This is in fact, NOT a fact. Just stating that something is a fact does NOT make it a fact. For every reputable scientist that states that global warming is occurring, there is another (though muzzled by the MSM) reputable scientist that makes an opposite claim. I have no problem with not polluting the earth. Just don't tax me huge amounts for a still unproven issue. Is it a coincidence that most if not all of those who are running around screaming global warming are making money from it, either through grants for research or by selling bogus "carbon credits"? Whatever the heck those are.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Wow, we were actually colder this morning at 49 here in N. Ft Myers, FL. Strange...usually North Fl is much colder.


That can't be correct its 64 in Tampa now
1822. NEwxguy
49 in N.Ft. Myers,its 52 here just west of Boston.
Quoting TampaSpin:


That can't be correct its 64 in Tampa now


I pretty sure the lowest Ft. Myers got to is 54 degrees.
Quoting weatherneophyte:
Quoting Patrap:
The warming is occurring,Fact.

This is in fact, NOT a fact. Just stating that something is a fact does NOT make it a fact. For every reputable scientist that states that global warming is occurring, there is another (though muzzled by the MSM) reputable scientist that makes an opposite claim. I have no problem with not polluting the earth. Just don't tax me huge amounts for a still unproven issue. Is it a coincidence that most if not all of those who are running around screaming global warming are making money from it, either through grants for research or by selling bogus "carbon credits"? Whatever the heck those are.


No, I'd rather you be taxed for polluting as all of us are guilty of in one form or another. Shouldn't we all pitch in for the cleanup? I don't mind doing my part. I think we owe Mother Earth that much, don't you?
Hopefully you don't fall into the group of people who live in LA-LA land thinking that we can cut taxes to nothing (because tax cuts are all that matters) and infrastructure and other problems get resolved by osmosis.
Quoting TampaSpin:


That can't be correct its 64 in Tampa now


Right now in Tampa it's 64. I am not at home now so I don't know what the temp currently is there. When I got up this morning around 6:15am my Davis Vantage Pro2 showed 49 on the display. I can take a photo of the screen that shows the hi/low for today if you like...
1826. Snowmog
1816: Here in Tiverton, RI we got pretty strong winds Saturday! Our friend was driving his xmas tree home that day and his car nearly took off! Needless to say his plan of putting up the xmas lights on the house also did not go well :0)
Quoting StormChaser81:


I pretty sure the lowest Ft. Myers got to is 54 degrees.


Maybe Fort Myers. I am in N. Ft. Myers which is usually about 2-3 degrees cooler and we're rural so no paved roads and other buildings within 500 ft of the house. I have one other home in sight of mine. Gets a few degrees colder than the forecasts for Ft. Myers. We were down to 39 on Saturday morning. Davis makes a pretty reliable and accurate weather station so I'm pretty sure it was correct.
Any of the WU Florida posters know this fella'?
Hear he works like a dog to assist his customers!

Dog in a BP shirt greets customers at Clearwater store
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Maybe Fort Myers. I am in N. Ft. Myers which is usually about 2-3 degrees cooler and we're rural so no paved roads and other buildings within 500 ft of the house. I have one other home in sight of mine. Gets a few degrees colder than the forecasts for Ft. Myers. We were down to 39 on Saturday morning. Davis makes a pretty reliable and accurate weather station so I'm pretty sure it was correct.


If your in a rural area, I believe you. Rural areas temps drop a lot more than the city's
Good Morning Friends............Last day of the season and looks like the most squirley weather for the Florida Panhandle will come from the forecasted non-tropical low/frontal boundry. With El Nino conditions for the Winter season, and concurrent the low position of the southern tier of the jet stream, severe weather events from frontal passages will be an issue for the Gulf States between now and March/April in all probability.
1832. IKE
Quoting StormChaser81:


If your in a rural area, I believe you. Rural areas temps drop a lot more than the city's


I recorded a low this morning of 56...inland Florida panhandle.

There's a PWS about 6 miles from here that showed a low around 45 this morning.

I'm surrounded by 2 lakes. The PWS isn't.
Quoting StormW:
Hey gang,

Question...I've had some inquiries via private email, and was wondering if someone can clue me in as to why a couple of posts the other day made mention that I would be missed?

TIA!

'morning, StormW,

It was very odd indeed. I don't think I can find the posts, or even explain it very well.

I saw a post, quoting someone else, that said "Too bad about StormW" (that was in the quoted italics.) So the response was, "What happened to StormW?"

I went back to the original post, that had been in italics. The original post said "deleted."

This is just conjecture, but I wonder if someone got you mixed up with Weather456 (did I get the screen name right?) who suffered through the swine flu? or maybe Floodman (surgery)? In any case, the original poster should have clarified, apologized, SOMETHING.

BTW, anyone have any updates on Floodman? I've checked Mrs. Flood's blog (LongStrangeTrip) and haven't seen anything lately. Did they say anything about being offline for Thanksgiving or anything? TIA.
Quoting IKE:


I recorded a low this morning of 56...inland Florida panhandle.

There's a PWS about 6 miles from here that showed a low around 45 this morning.

I'm surrounded by 2 lakes. The PWS isn't.


I don't have any lakes around me, just a couple small ponds but they're 300-500 ft from my property. The open window weather is most welcome!
1836. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't have any lakes around me, just a couple small ponds but they're 300-500 ft from my property. The window weather is most welcome!


I'm on lake-front property and there's another lake right across the street. Keeps my minimum temps up.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks!

You're welcome. Guess you can't even take Thanksgiving off without being missed!
Look forward to your update,
and to a NEW DR. JEFF BLOG (hint, hint, the sooner the better, Dr. J.)

1838. SQUAWK
NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG====
Quoting StormChaser81:


If your in a rural area, I believe you. Rural areas temps drop a lot more than the city's


Especially since many of the forecast temps and official weather stations are located in urban areas or TV stations (near or in the city) so paved roads (radiant heat) and other buildings in close proximity contribute to slightly higher temps. We are also much breezier than we used to be in the suburbs/city as well.
Quoting SQUAWK:
NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG==== NEW BLOG=====NEW BOLG====


THANK G-D!!
1841. stxman
The "manufactured Doubt" post by Dr. Masters is pathetic and embarrassing. Rather address the misdeeds by the AGW proponents, Dr. Masters chooses to launch an ad hominen attack. Problem for him is there's no need to "manufacture" doubt as any truly neutral scientist can tell you that there is plenty of doubt to be had. AGW is a theory. Period. It's not settled science and it's not a fact. There are too many variables to be certain.

There's a great book by Koestler on cosmolgy called "The Sleepwalkers." He describes how "scientists" kept fudging data or coming up with crazy hypothesis in order to "save the appearances" of the Ptolemaic system. This went on for 1500 years. Sounds like the CRU was fudging data to save the appearances of their precious models "proving" AGW. Let's hope this scam doesn't last as long.


1842. chrcon1
The hacked emails are just one more reason to doubt the global warming advocates and to oppose any legislation that Congress attempts to pass on this matter.
1843. chrcon1
Web sites that provide additional resources exposing the fraud of global warming:

http://www.isthereglobalwarming.com/

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/about-us/

http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2008/GlobalWarmingCensored/GlobalWarmingCensored_exe csum.asp

http://www.iceagenow.com/


I am not endorsing everything that is on the above web sites. They are just a sample of the sites and materials that are available that provide information that you need to be careful before buying into what the proponents of global warming claim.
1844. DSG2k
Dr. Masters,

Once again you have strayed from your home turf of hurricanes and launched headlong into a political attack. Everyone understands you are a left wing guy, and while some may thus have doubts as to your capabilities regarding hurricanes you at least provide enough information to counterbalance that.

However, you do not need to keep proving your left wing credentials, especially when they expose such illogic (which, again, raises doubts as to your capabilities).

1. You provide a history of "manufactured doubt" focused on tobacco and ozone (others would call it "FUD" (fear, uncertainty, doubt), a la Microsoft), and attempt to tie climate change skepticism to that history.

That is wrong-headed and poisoning the well of discourse regarding global warming. First, tobacco experimentation is repeatable and testable . . . global warming model hocus-pocus is not, because CRU's dirty science involved sloppy models with hard-coded fakery and cherry-picked data sources that they still had to fudge. Worse yet, they refused to share their methods and data with others (which we now know was for a good reason, in their mind, given how utterly atrocious their methods and data were).

As an aside, hurricane modeling is light-years ahead of climate modeling, yet even the newest hurricane models can perform poorly. It is partly a function of insufficient input, and partly a function of our own ignorance. To achieve the same level of anti-scientific foolishness as CRU maintained, hurricane modelers would have to decide in advance where they wanted to say the hurricane went, tweak the model input and/or output accordingly, and then refuse to budge from their position even when the hurricane clearly went the other way. Worse, they would clearly promulgate falsehoods in regards to where past storms went, just to make their current model look that much better! (re: Mann's "Hockey Stick" and the MWP)

You also try to poison the well by claiming the money is on the side of skeptics, yet your figures completely ignore the government funding of climate change research and activities. The Science and Public Policy Institute puts the figure of money spent on climate change at 79 billion . . . all your lobbying amounts combined do not match that. But even if the true government-sponsorship figure is less than one tenth of that, you still won't end up seeing it matched by your evil corporations.

The reason government is involved is simple, but I'm sure you would have difficulty with a point regarding big government trying to feed itself.

Finally, your claims ignore the fact that people like Watts and McIntyre are finding errors with the science, even without the cooperation or transparency of folks like the CRU 'scientists'.

But that's okay. If we wanted to play your game we'd simply note that you're part of a manufactured doubt campaign, trying to use FUD to hide the decline of the global warming myth.

For the record, I reject any religious intrusion into science, be it creationism or the new secular religion of global warming. Ben Stein and Al Gore are two halves of the same Anti-Science Alliance coin.
The debate is over! No need for further discussion! Global temperatures and associated climates have been changing for millions of years, along with fluctuations in global sea level! The latest trend began about 18,000 years ago, when the last ice age ended. This trend has been a warming trend, with rising sea level. There are fluctuations about this general trend; the "Little Ice Age" being one of the more famous ones (along with the "Medieval Warm Period"). Man has little to no affect on global termperature and climate! (and it could be argued that particulate input by man has slightly cooled the planet). Sorry to burst your bubble of importance (those who think man is such hot stuff), but it's time to move on to a new fraud. Fortunately, your scam has been revealed, and you will fail in your attempts to use "man-made global warming" as a tool for personal wealth and global control. All "scientists" involved with the perpetuation of this fraud should be either thrown in jail, or forced to resign from whatever scientific field they are in. Just like journalists who drifted away from reporting the truth, this issue as shown that many scientists are no longer interested in the truth either, and would rather use an issue like this to promote their careers and/or personal political philosophy. I am going to resign from the American Geophysical Union because of their support of this fraud, and I urge any real scientists out there, like myself, to resign from this, and any other organization, that has promoted the fraud.
Dear Dr. Masters,

To all the above I will offer this a single link. I sincerely hope you find work.

http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=217
I can not believe that you call youself a scholar. Al Gore and his crew L I E D !!! get over it allready.

Human caused global warming is a religious point of view , not fact. Because the facts and the data do not bear it out.When the data failed to return what they wanted, they made it up!! Sure there might be an slight increase as happens every 1500 years, last time it brought in a era or great prospeity

you may ask, Why whould they do that? The oldest reason $$$$$$$$$ money $$$$$$$. Grant money, speeking tour money, bogus peace prize money, goverment tax money,etc.
Al Gores personal now tops 100 million dollars. It seems that throwing the world in to a panic pays very well.
No one is selling doubt . It was created by the very people who are pulling this scam.
They just did not count on the American people being so darn smart.
But don't just belive me, unlike the global warming fear mongers I present evidence that is verifiable BTW the earth is currently cooling down in a mini cycle of 50 years or so, now how are you going to scare people.

dare to read this:
http://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/archive/issue.asp?year=2007&month=08
appoligies, You did not buy the whole lie and actually criticized Al Gore so at least you did not buy in hook line and sinker, just the hook. LOOK in the grand scheme of things GOD made the earth self regulating and self healing
so Thank GOD and move on, and everybody please
stop voting for kneejerk reactionary politicians who are just looking for new ways to tax you.
Well, one thing is for certain. There exists a disinformation campaign out there. The dichotomous nature of the debate is such that one side or the other is not telling the truth. Do you really think the big Corporations are not putting forth a full court press in opposition to a science that if true stands to diminish their profitability? Of course they are. They would be fools not to.

By the way, this extends to the health care issue as well. Big oil, big coal and insurance companies against the better public good for the sake of profit.
The only side that lies about smoking and health is the anti-smokers. They're guilty of flagrant fraud for ignoring more than 50 studies, which show that HPV is involved in at least a quarter of all non-small cell lung cancers.

http://www.smokershistory.com/hpvlungc.htm

All the anti-smokers' studies are based on nothing but lifestyle questionnaires, which are guaranteed never to find the real cause of anything, EVER. Their only purpose is to cynically exploit the fact that people of lower socioeconomic classes are more likely have been exposed to infections. To swallow this kind of garbage is proof of complete scientific incompetence.

Furthermore, the health fascist charlatans manufacture unanimity by shoveling out our tax dollars to their accomplices. Presumably, they did this with global warming, too, because the henchman who lobbied for the EPA to proclaim that secondhand smoke is a "carcinogen" subsequently founded the Climate Institute.

http://www.smokershistory.com/NCCIA.htm