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The Lost Hurricane/Typhoon Hunters VI: Typhoon Bess, October 12th, 1974

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 PM GMT on December 28, 2009

It's getting to be the end of the year, and its time to conclude the 6-part series I began earlier this year honoring the memory of the hurricane and typhoon hunter missions that never returned to base. I've made a permanent link to the series on the "Articles of Interest" section of our tropical/hurricane page.

The most recent recent loss of a Hurricane Hunter flight came on October 12, 1974. An Air Force WC-130H (tail number 65-0965, call sign Swan 38), from the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based at Anderson AFB, Guam, was lost in the South China Sea while flying Category 1 Typhoon Bess. Bess had formed east of the Philippines on October 8, then passed over northern Luzon Island on the 11th, triggering flooding and landslides that killed 29 people and caused $9 million in damage. On the 12th, Bess emerged over the South China Sea as a minimal Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds, and "Swan 38" was sent out to provide reconnaissance information. The aircraft had only recently arrived at the 54th WRS after having been converted to WC-130H, and had previously spent eight years assigned to combat rescue as an HC-130H. Swan 38 departed Clark Air Base in the Philippines, and successfully completed its first penetration and most of an "Alpha pattern" peripheral track. They were preparing for their second penetration, on the north side of the storm about 400 miles northwest of Clark AFB, when the last radio contact came at about 2200. An investigation board later speculated the crew was on the final leg inbound to make a second fix when they encountered some catastrophic problem. No emergency communications were received. Four days of relentless searching by rescue aircraft and two surface ships proved unsuccessful, and the six crewmen were declared missing and presumed dead. The name "Bess" was retired from the active list of typhoon names as a result of the loss, and the call sign "Swan 38" was also retired. A plaque honoring the crew was affixed to the squadron building at Andersen AFB (the plaque was removed when the 54th closed in 1987, and it's whereabouts are currently unknown). The crew members, carried on AWS rolls as Killed In Action, were:

Capt Edward R. Bushnell
1Lt Gary W. Crass
1Lt Michael P. O'Brien
1Lt Timothy J. Hoffman
TSgt Kenneth G. Suhr
Sgt Detlef W. Ringler


Figure 1. Above: plaque dedicated to the crew of Swan 38 (WC-130H 65-0965), located at Kirtland AFB. Inset image, top left: Swan 38 during an engine-running crew change at Guam in 1974. Image credit: Tom Robison.

Sources: Air Reconnaissance Weather Association May 2008 Newsletter; New York Times 13 Oct 1974 58:1; http://www.awra.us/WhiskeyCharlie.html by Tom Robison, 1974 Annual Typhoon report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Other notes:
The Air Force has had 24 weather reconnaissance missions that have resulted in loss of life; only three of these were typhoon flights. A full list of the missions is at the Air Weather Reconnaissance Association web site.

Special addendum: a Cold War mystery
September 10, 1956: An Air Force RB-50G Superfortress flying in the vicinity of Typhoon Emma was lost over the Sea of Japan. This was not a typhoon hunting aircraft, as is often reported. The aircraft was stationed at Yokota Air Base, Japan, and assigned to the 41st Air Division, 5th Air Force, and was performing electronic of photographic intelligence of the Soviet Union, North Korea, and China. The military gave out a "cover story" saying that the aircraft was lost performing weather reconnaissance. From Bernie Barris of the Air Reconnaissance Weather Association, "This aircraft was NOT lost in a typhoon penetration, nor was it shot down by the Soviets, as was often speculated. It was an RB-50G on a Strategic Reconnaissance mission. Everything I've read is that they were on the fringes of the typhoon, but more than likely the plane was lost due to mechanical problems, which plagued the B-50 in the 1950's. The typhoon did impact search efforts. The Soviets never released any records of tracking or attacking this flight; it is one of those true Cold War mysteries."


Figure 2. A Popular Mechanics cover story from 1950 dramatized the dangers that the early typhoon hunters faced. From the article: "It is impossible for me to describe accurately or exaggerate the severity of the turbulence we encountered. To some it may sound utterly fantastic, but to me it was a flight for life. I have flown many weather missions in my 30 months with the 514th Reconnaissance Squadron. I have flown night combat missions in rough weather out of England, and I have instructed instrument flying in the States, but never have I dreamed of such turbulence as we encountered in Typhoon Beverly. It is amazing to me the ship held together as it did."

Next post
My final post of the year will be on Wednesday or Thursday. I plan to present my pick for the top U.S. weather story of 2009.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
HPC day 6(next Monday), still shows a low south of the Florida panhandle...cold air to the north....

Thanx fer whooping da Vikings, Chicago...

Home sweet Dome fer the Playoffs..

U betcha..LOL
503. jipmg
TWC is forecasting mid 70s, and low 70s for SFL by the time that airmass hits lol
Quoting BobinTampa:


I once left Rapid City, SD with a -20 wind chill. When I got home to Florida, it was 80 degrees. Nice 100 degree turnaround in about 8 hours.


Winter of 1964, my husband and I were working at Argonne National Laboratory in LeMont, IL (near Chicago). For 10 days the temp did not get above 0*F. In the mornings we had to walk from the parking lot into 20 mph winds with temps less than -20. Then the cold broke and by lunchtime of the 11th day the temp was up to 17! People were strolling outside with coats open and no hats. It felt like spring! (Don't hold me to exact details - this account is based on memory, not written records but it's pretty close to what happened.)
If these temps verify, there will be allot of damage here. Strawberries are being planted and we also have lots of palms that could die from the cold. In '89 my parents lost half our palms and there were dead trees all around central fl.
Quoting jipmg:
TWC is forecasting mid 70s, and low 70s for SFL by the time that airmass hits lol


TWC might want to update there maps because it looks like snow could be in the cards for FL next week. If not snow there will definitly be hard freezes deep into S FL for multiple nights in a row. Not good for the citrus crop in C and S FL. Lets hope this doesn't occur.
Quoting IKE:
HPC day 6(next Monday), still shows a low south of the Florida panhandle...cold air to the north....



HPC has you in the mixture zone between rain, snow and freezing rain on that day.

There is some serious Polar air coming next week. Man not what I want to here. Everything is so green around my house because of all the rain the last month.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC has you in the mixture zone between rain, snow and freezing rain on that day.



Coldest air will be a couple of days later.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC has you in the mixture zone between rain, snow and freezing rain on that day.



Where'd you get that? link?
Quoting reedzone:


Where'd you get that? link?



HPC's Day 4-7 Gridded Forecasts
512. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC has you in the mixture zone between rain, snow and freezing rain on that day.



WOOHOO!
Quoting IKE:


WOOHOO!


That is IF you have any type of weather, could just be an overcast day.
Ummm so you guys are saying its gonna get COLD here in Alabama?passable snow?when...next week???
515. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is IF you have any type of weather, could just be an overcast day.


:(
#507....that is NOT a pretty picture...
HPC minimum temps for 01/05/2010.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC minimum temps for 01/05/2010.




Now THAT'S a cold outbreak
519. jipmg
Quoting Floodman:


Now THAT'S a cold outbreak


really? 52 in miami? Those are lows.. not highs, that really isn't that cold compared to other major outbreaks.
Thats not that cold.
Quoting presslord:
#507....that is NOT a pretty picture...


Thats just showing what kind of precipitation you would have SHOULD there be enough moisture. I dont think the entire area in blue is going to see snow that day
A little question for everyone and please cut an paste so this continues......But, what temperature does everyone keep the thermostat set at for heat...

TampaSpin---70....im a whimp

Floodman 68-70 daytime, 66 overnight

BobinTampa -- Heat??? Who turns the heat on in Florida?? It was 52 inside my house this a.m. Slept with the windows open.

Grothar: When the temperature gets this low, I have a setting on my thermostat that is set at "hysterical". I keep it there until the outside temperature reaches a resonable 75 deg; a temperature at which life is sustainable.

T-Dude: Well during the nice and cold winters here, I usually keep it around 65, it feels just fine after coming in from the frigid temps!

larryvillega; 62 if its less than 50 outside, otherwise off

47n91w: 58 at night and when I'm at work, 65 when I'm home. 65 is nice and toasty when it's -20f outside ;)

Unfriendly: Me and my fiance haven't used the thermostats yet, despite living in Frostburg, MD, elevation 2050 ft., and and average of 100 inches of snow a year. Can see your breath in my house at night... we put on sweaters. I'd say its only about 45 in the mornings in the living room, about 50-55 in the bedroom (body heat, I'm like an electric blanket). It's been as low as 4 degrees this year.
Quoting BobinTampa:


I once left Rapid City, SD with a -20 wind chill. When I got home to Florida, it was 80 degrees. Nice 100 degree turnaround in about 8 hours.
I think that would feel good! :)



US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT



SYNOPSIS: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THIS ASSESSMENT PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. SEVERAL DAYS LATER, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. RELATIVELY COLD, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ALASKA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE ASSESSMENT PERIOD, AT WHICH TIME A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH.

HAZARDS

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, JAN 1-5.

HEAVY SNOW (RAIN TO SNOW ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST) FOR NEW ENGLAND, JAN 1-2.

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON, JAN 1-2.

STRONG WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND GREAT LAKES, JAN 2-3.

HEAVY LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE GREAT LAKES, JAN 2-3.

ONGOING FLOODING FOR PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

ONGOING FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SEVERE DROUGHT IN PARTS OF WISCONSIN, TEXAS, AND AREAS IN THE WESTERN US, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN WASHINGTON STATE.
Quoting Floodman:


Now THAT'S a cold outbreak
Good to see ya postin Floodmain, Hope your back is good.
#510 and whoever else -- if you want to know where an image came from and have Firefox, you can right click the image and select Properties off the menu that pops up. The URL is displayed there and you can cut and paste that into the address box on the browser.

At least that's on Firefox. I would hope something similar happens with other browsers?
Well the light rain in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is finally changing to snow! It's just very unusual to see snowflakes fall in DFW, TX 3X in one month :0)!
Quoting bappit:
I would hope something similar happens with other browsers?


Works the same on IE.
529. xcool
hmmm
530. IKE
Quoting Unfriendly:
A little question for everyone and please cut an paste so this continues......But, what temperature does everyone keep the thermostat set at for heat...

TampaSpin---70....im a whimp

Floodman 68-70 daytime, 66 overnight

BobinTampa -- Heat??? Who turns the heat on in Florida?? It was 52 inside my house this a.m. Slept with the windows open.

Grothar: When the temperature gets this low, I have a setting on my thermostat that is set at "hysterical". I keep it there until the outside temperature reaches a resonable 75 deg; a temperature at which life is sustainable.

T-Dude: Well during the nice and cold winters here, I usually keep it around 65, it feels just fine after coming in from the frigid temps!

larryvillega; 62 if its less than 50 outside, otherwise off

47n91w: 58 at night and when I'm at work, 65 when I'm home. 65 is nice and toasty when it's -20f outside ;)

Unfriendly: Me and my fiance haven't used the thermostats yet, despite living in Frostburg, MD, elevation 2050 ft., and and average of 100 inches of snow a year. Can see your breath in my house at night... we put on sweaters. I'd say its only about 45 in the mornings in the living room, about 50-55 in the bedroom (body heat, I'm like an electric blanket). It's been as low as 4 degrees this year.


WTH? No heat all fall and winter? 4 degrees for a low:(

45 in your house? Uh...no..not me.
Quoting IKE:


WTH? No heat all fall and winter? 4 degrees for a low:(

45 in your house? Uh...no..not me.


Thats how Real Men Live, take showers using ice cubes. LOL =)
so how cold will deep south tx be with this siberian/arctic blast coming
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats how Real Men Live, take showers using ice cubes. LOL =)
Thats how the Eskimo do it, while they munch down seal fat ice cream.
535. IKE
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats how Real Men Live, take showers using ice cubes. LOL =)


LOL...I'm a wuss. I admit it....
536. IKE
Dec. 29th....6-10 day temp outlook....




8-14 day temp outlook....

Im kinda in da aqua blue seems ike..or is that Blue moon Blue?
538. IKE
6-10 day precip outlook....snow for the gulf coast?



8-14 day precip outlook....more snow?

539. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Im kinda in da aqua blue seems ike..or is that Blue moon Blue?


I'm color blind:(
Im leaning towards fluffy solution from Houma to Pensacola for now Ike..

But,its all gonna depend as usual,as to How the GOM Low travels south of us all.

Should get some pics this time,and wont have to travel far seems if it miss's uz here.
Quoting IKE:


I'm color blind:(
I,m Curious Ike, can you see any color at all?
Quoting hydrus:
I,m Curious Ike, can you see any color at all?


pretty sure he sees colors in gray, so light green would be light gray and so on.
543. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
I,m Curious Ike, can you see any color at all?


I can see colors...some I can say what they are...but blue...purple...green...brown...

I can't identify what they are.
545. IKE
Birmingham,AL...LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FAST MOVING PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THIS MODEL RUN DEVELOPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS
INDICATED BY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DRIER/COLDER AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWARD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S.
I am very interested to see the updated GFS at 5:30pm. I think the GOM Low will be stronger on the next run for next Wed. A lot of maps that everybody is throwing out right now expect for Ike and Patrap are wrong. Guys people are under estimating this cold outbreak next week. The Euro and GFS are on the right track. A strong southern jet with bitterly cold air spells trouble for the deep south (i.e Florida). With this pattern in place is a perfect set up for a very strong storm next week. Bottom line the computer models the next 2 to 3 days will be key. A lot of maps on here are not taking into account of the Euro and GFS yet but I'm sure once more consesus is available then a better forecast can be reached.
9.6 deg. in Dover NH and the winds are screaming right now. There are not enough bad words to describe how cold it is right now
Quoting IKE:


I can see colors...some I can say what they are...but blue...purple...green...brown...

I can't identify what they are.

I have found that color blind people are smarter!
Quoting Jeff9641:
I am very interested to see the updated GFS at 5:30pm. I think the GOM Low will be stronger on the next run for next Wed. A lot of maps that everybody is throwing out right now expect for Ike and Patrap are wrong. Guys people are under estimating this cold outbreak next week. The Euro and GFS are on the right track. A strong southern jet with bitterly cold air spells trouble for the deep south (i.e Florida). With this pattern in place is a perfect set up for a very strong storm next week. Bottom line the computer models the next 2 to 3 days will be key. A lot of maps on here are not taking into account of the Euro and GFS yet but I'm sure once more consesus is available then a better forecast can be reached.


Still lots of time for things to change for better or worse. Not going to get excited till one day before, considering lately they blow stuff way out of portion and that last storm system to hit central Florida was pathetic, I only had like less than a half of inch of rain.
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I have found that color blind people are smarter!


I want facts on that, i dont believe it.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Still lots of time for things to change for better or worse. Not going to get excited till one day before, considering lately they blow stuff way out of portion and that last storm system to hit central Florida was pathetic, I only had like less than a half of inch of rain.

Yeah, I'm not getting excited for anything until it's 3 days out, and even then it's sketchy haha!
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I have found that color blind people are smarter!
So everybody listen to Ike except when answers are color-coded?
Quoting StormChaser81:


I want facts on that, i dont believe it.

I didn't say it was a fact. I said I have found--which means the people that I have interacted with who are color blind have been really fascinating and smart people.
3:15PM CST, 12-29-09, Arlington, TX 3RD Snow of 12-09 {:0)

555. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
So everybody listen to Ike except when answers are color-coded?


I'm not that smart...
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I didn't say it was a fact. I said I have found--which means the people that I have interacted with who are color blind have been really fascinating and smart people.


Ill except that. lol =)
Quoting StormChaser81:


Still lots of time for things to change for better or worse. Not going to get excited till one day before, considering lately they blow stuff way out of portion and that last storm system to hit central Florida was pathetic, I only had like less than a half of inch of rain.


Yeah, these model runs the next few days will be key, the models show a powerful southern jet next week. A disturbance along that with very cold air in place could be a set up for a major storm. Will it ride up the coast or move out to sea will be the next big question.
Quoting IKE:


I'm not that smart...


Smarter than the AVERAGE blogger...lol
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah, these model runs the next few days will be key, the models show a powerful southern jet next week. A disturbance along that with very cold air in place could be a set up for a major storm. Will it ride up the coast or move out to sea will be the next big question.


But regardless its going to be bringing some colder temps to our area. i.e. CF (central FL)

But if the factors come together right we could see something that only happens every twenty years or so happen and Florida cant handle any kind of ICE. Bridges would spell disaster for lots of vehicles, considering they would form black ice with this kind of cold.
Quoting IKE:


I'm not that smart...
You seem to hold your own on this blog. I was just joking with the color code comment, rest assured it was posted for fun.
Quoting jipmg:


really? 52 in miami? Those are lows.. not highs, that really isn't that cold compared to other major outbreaks.


Remember that models beyond 5 days tend to underestimate cold air as they tend to have a bias towards climatology, also they underestimate the effects of snow cover which tend to not let the cold shallow artic air to modify as much as the computer models indicate
so that map could easily be 10+ degrees to warm.
109
fxus64 klix 292119
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
319 PM CST Tuesday Dec 29 2009


Synopsis...
high pressure centered over Ohio this afternoon with surface low
attempting to develop over southwestern Gulf of Mexico. One upper
impulse lifting into far south Texas with a second behind it over
Baja California California. Light rain now being indicated on radar over
eastern Texas. Dew points running higher than yesterday...upper
20s to upper 30s. Temperatures generally in the middle 50s with cirrus
moving into the area.
&&


Short term...
first impulse will mainly serve to get the air mass saturated overnight
tonight. Expect a good bit of radar activity...but little in the
way of measurable precipitation. Second impulse for Wednesday
afternoon and evening will be more productive...with 1 to 2 inches
of rain anticipated. After several dry days...we should be able to
deal with that kind of precipitation amount. Likely to categorical
probability of precipitation for Wednesday and Wednesday night. With surface low forecast
to track SW-NE across the area...any thunder should be isolated
and limited to the southeast half of the area. No severe weather
expected. Front becomes somewhat diffuse over northern Gulf on
Thursday...so moisture doesn't entirely scour out. That waits for
the northern stream impulse Thursday night...which will usher
drier and colder air into the area for Friday. Will hold small
probability of precipitation in the forecast for Thursday and Thursday evening...as we may
get a little light rain or drizzle as the colder air arrives.


Temperatures moderating tonight and Wednesday to around
normal...then above normal by about 5 degrees for Wednesday night
and Thursday. Colder air arriving Friday may hold readings in the
40s for most of the day across the area. 35
&&


Long term...
northwest flow predominates for the entire extended period. Moisture
has been scoured out with the Friday boundary...giving US a
dry...but unseasonably cool weekend. Models continue to flip-flop
on the potential development of low pressure over the Gulf...with
the European model (ecmwf) not developing a surface low at all...keeping the early
portion of next week dry. GFS would indicate a weak low with light
precipitation on Monday. Previous forecast had fit with current
European model (ecmwf) scenario.
Below normal temperatures expected for the extended period...about
5 degrees over the weekend...closer to 10 degrees Monday and
Tuesday. I do note that mex mins for next Wednesday...day
8...running 9-13 degrees below normal.


Considering the usual drift
toward climatology at that time step...actual mins could be even
colder if GFS pattern verifies. Just something to keep an eye on
for now. 35
CONUS 60 hour forecast Surface Map

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC minimum temps for 01/05/2010.



That's really not that cold. That happens once a winter.
Quoting btwntx08:
so how cold will deep south tx be with this siberian/arctic blast coming
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

That's really not that cold. That happens once a winter.


GFS is showing a lot colder temps than the HPC.

Quoting StormChaser81:


GFS is showing a lot colder temps than the HPC.



Like 35 to 40 as a high for central Florida area.
568. IKE
Quoting StormChaser81:


Smarter than the AVERAGE blogger...lol


LOL.
I seriously doubt the highs in central Florida will be below 40---that only happens in the most exceptional cold air outbreaks. If such temps are shown by models less than 48 hours before, I'll take notice.
I've been watching the models the past day or so, and right now it looks like ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure are would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will. Adrian
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

I have found that color blind people are smarter!

But then again, you never met me!
572. IKE
Mobile,AL. long-term...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF BOTH HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY COLD WITH A DEEP SUBFREEZING
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IN BOTH MODELS MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE
A 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
AND MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
BEING VERY LIGHT WITH THE UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. GFS
WAS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
IT...PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE STRONGER LIFT REGION NORTH OF THE LOW.
RIGHT NOW THE GFS LOOKS A BIT OVER-DONE AND WE WENT LIGHTER AND LESS
CERTAIN WITH ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
Of course with the models I do have hopes that it will be that cold. I've always thought a repeat of the legendary storm of Jan 10/11 1800, which brought 5" of snow to the Florida side of the St. Mary's river, "over a foot" to St. Simons according to plantation diaries, and 18" to Savannah with 3 foot drifts (!) would be total awesomesauce :)

I doubt it will happen--but here's hoping!
ECMWF dives the 540 line towards northern Lake Okeechobee similar to the 1989 cold spell.

Can someone help me out with the jargon. What is the 540 line.. Also when you read the 500mb and 850 mb models, what should you be looking for. As for what Drakoen said earlier about the 540 line, I remember Christmas Eve 1989 in Hialeah, FL trying to make snow with my water hose and making huge icicles off the roof. It got down to 25 degrees the night of 23rd-24th. Christmas Eve it was 33 degrees at 1 pm. And it was back below freezing by the time we had Noche Buena dinner.
Quoting mara0921:
Can someone help me out with the jargon. What is the 540 line.. Also when you read the 500mb and 850 mb models, what should you be looking for. As for what Drakoen said earlier about the 540 line, I remember Christmas Eve 1989 in Hialeah, FL trying to make snow with my water hose and making huge icicles off the roof. It got down to 25 degrees the night of 23rd-24th. Christmas Eve it was 33 degrees at 1 pm. And it was back below freezing by the time we had Noche Buena dinner.


I remember Christmas Eve 1989. We had snow flurries in Port Charlotte. It was 25 degrees that night. They melted before they hit the ground but it was still really cool.
The influence of color blindness on intelligence and achievement of college men.
Lorenz, A. B.; McClure, W. E.
Journal of Applied Psychology. Vol 19(3), Jun 1935, 320-330.Abstract9% were color blind of a group of 811 men tested at the University of Toledo on the Ishihara test. The average intelligence-test score for color-blind college students tends to be slightly higher than for non-color-blind, and average point-score grades tend to be slightly lower for the color-blind students. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved)
Quoting charlottefl:


I remember Christmas Eve 1989. We had snow flurries in Port Charlotte. It was 25 degrees that night. They melted before they hit the ground but it was still really cool.
I was in P.C. also, working at the Village Fish Market. I looked up at the street lights and saw lots of flurries.
Just looking through NWS data for Dec 24 1989. Here are the temps for Ft. Myers (~140 Miles North of Key West)

HIGH: 44
LOW: 28
MEAN: 36
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS

I doesn't look like the 32 line makes it past N Fl
Quoting mara0921:
Can someone help me out with the jargon. What is the 540 line.. Also when you read the 500mb and 850 mb models, what should you be looking for. As for what Drakoen said earlier about the 540 line, I remember Christmas Eve 1989 in Hialeah, FL trying to make snow with my water hose and making huge icicles off the roof. It got down to 25 degrees the night of 23rd-24th. Christmas Eve it was 33 degrees at 1 pm. And it was back below freezing by the time we had Noche Buena dinner.


What the ECMWF isn't as cold as the 1989 event...a few degrees warmer. The 540 line is the generally rain/snow line. If the thickness is 540 or below this implies the layer is at or below freezing. The 540 line on the 1000mb-500mb charts takes into account the average between the temperatures at 1000mb and 500mb.

On the 500mb charts generally you look for troughs, vortices, and low geopotential heights

The 850mb chart is used to look at the depth of the airmass as far as how cold it is. You can look for troughs, geopotential heights, etc on this charts as well.
Drake, help me out. What is the 540 line?
That was also only time ever that snow flurries were even forecasted for miami. I could swear I saw a flake or two, but nothing like 1977. My parents always talk about that one. I was only 1 years old so obviously cant remember. That one was a total surprise from what I've read. That 1989 freeze killed alot of palm trees and citrus. There were 3 big freezes like that in the 80's, Christmas 83 and Jan 85, which was a ridiculous siberian express
Thanks Drakoen.. I figured it was something like that but wasnt sure.. Being a Miami native just the possibility of snow/freeze gets us all so excited. My whole office has been glued to this blog all day
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Drake, help me out. What is the 540 line?


The freeze line at 850MB or about 5,000 feet
The runs have been off by ten degrees each run. 10 degrees can make a big difference in Fl.
Quoting mara0921:
Thanks Drakoen.. I figured it was something like that but wasnt sure.. Being a Miami native just the possibility of snow/freeze gets us all so excited. My whole office has been glued to this blog all day


Another thing is that even if the thickness is 540 or lower on the 100mb-500mb thickness, you still need to check the other thickness levels to make sure they are at or below freezing for snow precipitation. If there is warm air aloft then precip could be sleet.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
The runs have been off by ten degrees each run. 10 degrees can make a big difference in Fl.


Most don't pay attention to the 18z GFS
Yeah tho I walk in the shadow of a new format, I shall fear no clicking....

For I'm a zealot by proxy, and I knew this was coming.

And it's NOT gonna snow in Jacksonville.

(tempting fate, tempting fate)
Quoting aquak9:
Yeah tho I walk in the shadow of a new format, I shall fear no clicking....

For I'm a zealot by proxy, and I knew this was coming.

And it's NOT gonna snow in Jacksonville.

(tempting fate, tempting fate)
For the weather blog provideth a fortified tower in the face of the trolls. Admin is the defender of thy blogeth. Amen:)
Quoting mara0921:
Thanks Drakoen.. I figured it was something like that but wasnt sure.. Being a Miami native just the possibility of snow/freeze gets us all so excited. My whole office has been glued to this blog all day
Miami native too, born Mt. Sinai Hosp.
Morehead City:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM HOWEVER TEMPS MUCH
BELOW NORMAL WILL PREVAIL AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS SE FROM CANADA.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1270M (AND EVEN LOWER FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES) WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 EACH DAY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 30S. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE L/M20S AWAY FROM THE
COAST TO AROUND 30 COASTAL SECTIONS. PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF
SUGGESTED ANOTHER SFC LOW WOULD PULL OFF THE SE COAST EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AND PSBLY BRING SOME PCPN TO THE REGION...BUT TODAYS 12Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF AND THE GFS REMAINS DRY WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING
THE AREA. HAVE THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

7 deg. with 18mph winds, gust to 30mph in Dover NH. I'll be glad when this wind finally goes away.
auburn's posting weather links.

Probably gonna snow like the dickens in Miami now.
north pole view
keeper, you'e gonna slow down the high sleep internet with posts like that... :)
That just looks like a psychadelic trip...
here is a zoom in on fla and area

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is a zoom in on fla and area



look at all the pretty colors...Ummm what does it mean????
603. beell
My .02's to add to the 540 thickness thread.

The 1,000mb-500mb thickness chart is the approximate thickness of the layer of atmosphere from the 1,00mb level (surface) to the 500mb level. 540 represents a thickness of 5,400 meters between the two levels.

Warm air occupies more volume than cold air and has a higher 1000-500mb thickness. In addition to using this parameter as a rough guess of the rain/snow demarcation, it also offers a very quick look at direction and intensity of cold or warm air advection. The lower the thickness, the colder the air. Adjacent thickness lines packed close together would generally indicate a sharp and or rapid transition. Farther spacing-a slower change. If you look close,you may see a hint or two of some gentle warm air moving N from Mexico toward Wyoming.

Fairly easy to see the cold air diving down from the north on this sample from today's 18Z GFS (Valid Thur after next). The axis/center of the cold air is indicated by the blue arrow.

Photobucket
604. chawk
I hope this years winter pattern does not compare to 1899,
Wikapedia,On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States. High Point, North Carolina recorded 10-12" (25-30 cm) of snow, and temperatures as low as 10 °F (−12 °C) on the 11th, 5 °F (−15 °C) on the 13th, and 3 °F (−16 °C) on the 14th. It was said to be the coldest weather known to the oldest inhabitants. Washington, D.C. recorded its all-time record single snowfall of 20.5 inches (52 cm), though it was later broken. Cape May, New Jersey recorded 34 inches (86 cm), which is the highest single storm snowfall total ever in New Jersey, in what is normally the least-snowy part of the state.

The port of New Orleans, Louisiana was completely iced-over by February 13, with ice floes reportedly floating out of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico.

On February 14, the low temperature in Miami, Florida was 29 °F (−2 °C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-freezing) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

North of the Mid-Atlantic region, the storm weakened somewhat, but it was still a very powerful blizzard. New York's Central Park recorded 16 inches (41 cm), which at the time was its third-biggest snowfall, but many surrounding areas recorded 2-3 feet (60 to 90 cm), as did most of New England.

There are even Cuban reports (made by the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cuba was a U.S. territory at the time) that the country experienced hard frost which killed or damaged many crops. This was despite the cold air first having to cross the Florida Strait and its warm Gulf Stream waters. The blizzard of 1899 is referred to as "The Snow King".

The only other cold wave of such severity in the Southeast was the 1985 Florida freeze, which destroyed the citrus groves in central Florida, and forced the industry into south Florida. The only other blizzard to strike the Southeast was the Great Blizzard of 1993.

[edit] References
Kocin, Paul J.; Weiss, Alan D.; Wagner, Joseph J. (1988), "The Great Arctic Outbreak and East Coast Blizzard of February 1899", Weather and Forecasting 3 (4): 305–318, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1988)0032.0.CO;2
Quoting aquak9:
auburn's posting weather links.

Probably gonna snow like the dickens in Miami now.


ROFLMBO!..
Quoting auburn:


look at all the pretty colors...Ummm what does it mean????
its gonna get cold all the way too s cen fla with highs in the 60's as far south as cancun eastward towards nw cuba bahamas along northern side of hati/dom/PR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its gonna get cold all the way too s cen fla with highs in the 60's as far south as cancun eastward towards nw cuba bahamas along northern side of hati/dom/PR


Thanks Keep!!!...Ally would you tell K9 to stop picking on me...LOL
ECMWF 12z has 850mb temps of -2C over South Florida:

609. unf97
Good evening everyone!
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z has 850mb temps of -2C over South Florida:



28 Degrees F
Drak-

What date is that for?
Interesting and tragic story of lost flight over Phillipines.
My father was a radio operator for 47 missions in a B-50 during WW2. lucky for me he was very lucky!
His plane was also called The Lucky Strike.
From old pics I think I recall a picture of a Barbara Stanwyke type painted on the nose.
Don't think weather planes do that though.
I hope you are all still in the holiday spirit. Got to go check the turkey soup!
Wish I had a fireplace, though.
Is a gas or wood burning fireplace better?
Ally would you tell K9 to stop picking on me...LOL

but Auburn...you're like a nose, just so pickable!
So, are the GFS and ECMWF in agreement with the arctic air track...I'm confused.
Quoting sugarsand:
So, are the GFS and ECMWF in agreement with the arctic air track...I'm confused.


if the GFS and ECMWF agree on ANYTHING this year, I'm gonna be very confused, too!
Quoting aquak9:


if the GFS and ECMWF agree on ANYTHING this year, I'm gonna be very confused, too!


LOL, no kidding. I remember watching them during hurri season thinking "HUH?".
All I know is I do not want sub freezing temps, NO NO NO.
Last night, temperatures hit a low of -16.9C (1.6F) at my location. Ice formed on the inside of the windows after the foggy windows froze over. Snowsqualls last night were rather intense, but at some points the gibbous moon (which, by the way, is full on New Years' Eve) was visible through the fast-moving clouds, but they left only about 1 or 2 inches on the ground. It was also extremely windy, but tonight it's more calm.

Here in Canada, we use ice scrapers, not credit cards when ice builds up on cars. Earlier, near the beginning of December, we had three consecutive mornings of black ice. On the second day, I saw a pickup truck in a parking lot "hydroplane" on the ice, spinning in full circles halfway accross the parking lot, but fortunately it did not crash into anything.

I was going to write a question for WunderBlogAdmin yesterday, but I ended up going on a different website. That reminds me, my modem was also having problems, as I heard a popping sound as if a fuse had broken.
astro, you really amaze me sometimes.

You covered credit cards, a gibbous moon, a swirling truck, and modem fireworks all in one post.

GFS/ECMWF agreement isn't the only thing that confuses me sometimes...

Sugarsand- sorry, you're gonna see freezing temps. :(
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Last night, temperatures hit a low of -16.9C (1.6F) at my location. Ice formed on the inside of the windows after the foggy windows froze over. Snowsqualls last night were rather intense, but at some points the gibbous moon (which, by the way, is full on New Years' Eve) was visible through the fast-moving clouds, but they left only about 1 or 2 inches on the ground. It was also extremely windy, but tonight it's more calm.

Here in Canada, we use ice scrapers, not credit cards when ice builds up on cars. Earlier, near the beginning of December, we had three consecutive mornings of black ice. On the second day, I saw a pickup truck in a parking lot "hydroplane" on the ice, spinning in full circles halfway accross the parking lot, but fortunately it did not crash into anything.

I was going to write a question for WunderBlogAdmin yesterday, but I ended up going on a different website. That reminds me, my modem was also having problems, as I heard a popping sound as if a fuse had broken.
Please describe for me ( Black Ice).
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Black ice is a very generic term typically used to describe slippery road conditions. Black ice, sometimes called "glare ice" or "clear ice", typically refers to a thin coating of glazed ice on a roadway. While not truly black, it is transparent, allowing the usually-black asphalt/macadam roadway to be seen through it, hence the term. It is unusually slick compared to other forms of roadway ice, and is a factor in some car accidents
Quoting Chicklit:
Interesting and tragic story of lost flight over Phillipines.
My father was a radio operator for 47 missions in a B-50 during WW2. lucky for me he was very lucky!
His plane was also called The Lucky Strike.
From old pics I think I recall a picture of a Barbara Stanwyke type painted on the nose.
Don't think weather planes do that though.
I hope you are all still in the holiday spirit. Got to go check the turkey soup!
Wish I had a fireplace, though.
Is a gas or wood burning fireplace better?


you will get more heat from wood and it cheaper...but its also more work and its dirty...and not a safe...I have a wood heater and I love it...
Sugarsand- sorry, you're gonna see freezing temps. :(

Yep, I start the plant migration tomorrow. A makeshift greenhouse in my garage with plant lights on hubby's workbench. The rest of them scattered indoors....looks like a jungle inside the house. Dogs love it.
I'm cold...somebody gimmee a hug...
Quoting presslord:
I'm cold...somebody gimmee a hug...

HUG! And now back to slurping my warm turkey soup...goodnight everyone. Don't drive unless you have to!
GOM IR Loop

Hey Aub, we converted our wood fireplace to gas logs. Now, all the heat doesn't go up the flue. It is much cleaner, for sure. Our gas bill is not that bad either, esp. since we had to buy the wood before. No "trees" in Destin!
oh well.. time to skin the cat and the lab..it might get cold here,, i think it grows back,, from . what the oldtimers say,,
sugarsand I know what you mean about bringing the plants in

my dau and TangoCat love it when everything comes inside, seems to make the indoors seem warmer and more tropical, doesn't it?

g'nite ya'll, go in peace, carry on
Quoting sugarsand:
Sugarsand- sorry, you're gonna see freezing temps. :(

Yep, I start the plant migration tomorrow. A makeshift greenhouse in my garage with plant lights on hubby's workbench. The rest of them scattered indoors....looks like a jungle inside the house. Dogs love it.


I have a green house you need girl...wish I could get it to you!!!
hi sugarsand...thinking gas is more eco-friendly and for me ergonomic due to arthritis.
i cannot afford anything at present, just wondering.
CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries: Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version] Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
321 PM EST TUE DEC 29 2009

VALID 00Z WED DEC 30 2009 - 12Z THU DEC 31 2009

A DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION ... A SMALL PATCH OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE ... A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL CANADA WILL ADVANCE TO THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL INTERSECT THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING SNOW FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE WEST COAST ... TWO PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST STORM WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RUNS INTO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN AND
INLAND SNOW FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY.
THE COASTAL RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER CALIFORNIA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING ... WHILE CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN AND INLAND SNOW PICKS
UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SNOW CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

ZIEGENFELDER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


Quoting presslord:
I'm cold...somebody gimmee a hug...

Quoting aquak9:
sugarsand I know what you mean about bringing the plants in

my dau and TangoCat love it when everything comes inside, seems to make the indoors seem warmer and more tropical, doesn't it?

g'nite ya'll, go in peace, carry on


You, too Aqua! Press, you need a Snuggie, LOL!
Quoting auburn:


I have a green house you need girl...wish I could get it to you!!!


Well, dang, next time we git together, Aub!
Quoting presslord:
I'm cold...somebody gimmee a hug...
ya may need a heavier coat longjohns maybe as well 82 days till first day of spring
Quoting Chicklit:
hi sugarsand...thinking gas is more ergonomic.
i cannot afford anything at present, just wondering.


Ergonomic, indeed!
my wife doesn't know it yet...but we're about to have a BIG fight over who walks the dog in the morning...
Quoting sugarsand:


Ergonomic, indeed!

yes, i believe that involves turning on a switch.
Quoting Chicklit:

yes, i believe that involves turning on a switch.


Exactly!
Quoting presslord:
my wife doesn't know it yet...but we're about to have a NIG fight over who walks the dog in the morning...

NIG?
Quoting sugarsand:

NIG?


BIG!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm so cold I can't type...
Quoting presslord:
my wife doesn't know it yet...but we're about to have a BIG fight over who walks the dog in the morning...

LOL!

Evening Wubloggers and bloggettes!
Quoting presslord:
I'm so cold I can't type...


How cold is Charleston???
53 and falling
Quoting presslord:
53 and falling


We're at 48 and falling. It was 34 this a.m.
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)

Updated: 55 sec ago

Overcast

47.0 °F

Overcast
Windchill: 47 °F
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 36 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.27 in (Falling)
Just went to get some dinner. 49 Degrees here in SWFL.
It's the humidity that makes the cold go right through you, right, Pat?
well, I am 57 and falling!...oh, ya'll were talking about the temps!..lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Black ice is a very generic term typically used to describe slippery road conditions. Black ice, sometimes called "glare ice" or "clear ice", typically refers to a thin coating of glazed ice on a roadway. While not truly black, it is transparent, allowing the usually-black asphalt/macadam roadway to be seen through it, hence the term. It is unusually slick compared to other forms of roadway ice, and is a factor in some car accidents
Thanks Keep.
'sposed to go to 29 tonight...we walked out to Morris island lighthouse tonight...the beach was stunning....but chilly...
Quoting AllyBama:
well, I am 57 and falling!...oh, ya'll were talking about the temps!..lol


Ally, you're so funny.
My house...

41 F
Clear
Windchill: 41 F
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 34 F
Wind: Calm

Pressure: 30.36 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16


Daughter in CT


15.5 F
Clear
Windchill: 5 F
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -1 F
Wind: 8.0 mph from the WNW

Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -

I'm having a heat wave compared to her!..lol
Hi sugar...just came in from doing out to dinner and near about froze to death walking to and from the car..so happy that we only had to walk 10 ft!..lol
15 degrees, ouch.
Link

I have learned so much today about forecast models. I hope this shows up. We are all talking about possible snow next week, but its looking like around 10 days out we may have a repeat of Jan 1985.
Quoting AllyBama:
Hi sugar...just came in from doing out to dinner and near about froze to death walking to and from the car..so happy that we only had to walk 10 ft!..lol


You need more anti-freeze. You know, Jetty juice is about the same color....works wonders.
Quoting charlottefl:
Drak-

What date is that for?

1-5-2010 @ 12Z or 7AM CST

VALID 10 01 05
10 is 2010
01 Jan
05 5th day of the month
1200V is 12Z or UTC=7AM EST
168= 168 hrs into the future

Interesting, somewhat relevant, trivia...

Link
Quoting Bordonaro:

1-5-2010 @ 12Z or 7AM CST

VALID 10 01 05
10 is 2010
01 Jan
05 5th day of the month
1200V is 12Z or UTC=7AM EST
168= 168 hrs into the future



I knew that was the date section just couldn't figure out the order. LOL.(Long day at work today) Heading to Tennessee in a few days for about a week and a half. Ever seen a Floridian Frozen Solid? That's me in 3 days. LOL
Quoting presslord:
'sposed to go to 29 tonight...we walked out to Morris island lighthouse tonight...the beach was stunning....but chilly...


by monday next week its going to be
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Wind chill values as low as 15.
for ya press
i miss charleston, worked at folly beach, at the WONDERFUL ATLANTIC BEACH RESTURUANT,, gone,, but not forgotten,, lived on peas island,, worked for the evil hans and franz,, on the front,, seen snow and ice once.. drove to north c, a great city , almost as good as denver co
Quoting presslord:
Interesting, somewhat relevant, trivia...

Link


That's the time to be on the beach, with the full moon shining on the water.
Here in Arlington, TX it snowed from around 3PM to 5:45PM. We had about 0.2", just enough to coat the grass, rooftops, windshields/top of autos. This was the third time we saw snow this month. Dec 2, 23 and 29TH. What a weird El Nino!!
The Forecast is out for my area in Northern Louisiana Temperatures next week will be stuck in the 30s with lows possibly in the mid to upper teens
All the forecast lows I see for Destin next week are right around freezing or above. Nothing in the 20's, maybe inland, but not along the beaches. Am I missing something?
You need more anti-freeze. You know, Jetty juice is about the same color....works wonders

yes it does!...I need to come get some soon!..lol
Quoting charlottefl:


I knew that was the date section just couldn't figure out the order. LOL.(Long day at work today) Heading to Tennessee in a few days for about a week and a half. Ever seen a Floridian Frozen Solid? That's me in 3 days. LOL


Oh, cool, my daughter lives in Nashville, TN. The Arctic/Siberian blast will visit TN next week, be prepared, bring a sweater, heavy jacket, hat and gloves.
After listening to y'all, I am not complaining!
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
51.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 46 °F
Wind: 1.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 30.31 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft
Goodnight!
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
i miss charleston, worked at folly beach, at the WONDERFUL ATLANTIC BEACH RESTURUANT,, gone,, but not forgotten,, lived on peas island,, worked for the evil hans and franz,, on the front,, seen snow and ice once.. drove to north c, a great city , almost as good as denver co


I am looking right now at a beautiful framed photo of Atlantic House...walked over the pilings just yesterday...
Quoting louisianaboy444:
The Forecast is out for my area in Northern Louisiana Temperatures next week will be stuck in the 30s with lows possibly in the mid to upper teens


The DFW area of N TX mets are calling for highs near 42F, lows near 28F, about 9F below average. They haven't said too much about the Polar Vortex since Sunday, 12-28-09.
Quoting Bordonaro:


The DFW area of N TX mets are calling for highs near 42F, lows near 28F, about 9F below average. They haven't said too much about the Polar Vortex since Sunday, 12-28-09.


I think they might be playing it a big conserative for now which wouldn't be a bad call knowing that this event is 6 to 7 days out...our forecast is trending colder but less of a chance of wintery precip
Quoting sugarsand:
All the forecast lows I see for Destin next week are right around freezing or above. Nothing in the 20's, maybe inland, but not along the beaches. Am I missing something?


The further out in time you go, the more the temperatures are "weighted" towards their climatological averages. The raw model numbers are colder and as the event draws near, the numbers will come down. Assuming the siberian low does come over to our side.
Plus Monroe is much further East than Dallas and will be closer to the colder axis of air
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The further out in time you go, the more the temperatures are "weighted" towards their climatological averages. The raw model numbers are colder and as the event draws near, the numbers will come down. Assuming the siberian low does come over to our side.


You know what "ASSUME" stands for.LOL.
Quoting sugarsand:


You know what "ASSUME" stands for.LOL.



Sho nuff!
Hey Sugarsand i think your handle would sound better the opposte way....Sandsugar hmmm?
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Hey Sugarsand i think your handle would sound better the opposte way....Sandsugar hmmm?


Sounds backwards "Sandsugar", but whatever.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The further out in time you go, the more the temperatures are "weighted" towards their climatological averages. The raw model numbers are colder and as the event draws near, the numbers will come down. Assuming the siberian low does come over to our side.


Truthfully, I don't blame them for being conservative. The EMCWF, the European weather model and the GFS, an American model sort of came into agreement on the 00Z run earlier today. The 18Z run lessens the severity of the cold Arctic/Siberian outbreak.

The EMCWF model shows the core of the Siberian/Arctic air moving into far Northern Canada this weekend. I remember the winter of 76-77 on Long Island, NY, it was brutal, the Dec 82 Arctic outbreak in Arlington, TX and the Dec 89 Arctic outbreak in 89.

IF all that Siberian air moves into the US, it is going to be almost as cold as the 89 outbreak. Dallas Ft Worth, TX hit -1F.
not as cold as last night and winds have diminish to light breeze

<
Its looking like for South Florida there will be 2 possible freezes, one towards Thursday Jan 7th and then a Siberian Express around Monday the 10th? I see what the Greenland Block and the big ridge out west means now. This is just like Jan 1977 except theres an El Nino. So there may be multiple shots at snow so dont worry if we dont get any next week. We may be quite sick of the cold in 2 weeks
Quoting mara0921:
Its looking like for South Florida there will be 2 possible freezes, one towards Thursday Jan 7th and then a Siberian Express around Monday the 10th? I see what the Greenland Block and the big ridge out west means now. This is just like Jan 1977 except theres an El Nino. So there may be multiple shots at snow so dont worry if we dont get any next week. We may be quite sick of the cold in 2 weeks


or quite sick from the cold bundle up!!!
forgive me presslord.. it was back in the 80s, i had to serve shecrab soup. make the cocktails , btw,, were you my boss??
Is there anyway that I can have my cake and eat it too?..I would love some snow but without the cold air!..lol
hey everyone, hope your holiday was great. looks like we have a few rainy days ahead of us. thought i'd share this story about the missing sea lions:

Link
Arlington, TX around 4:15PM today, gotta love this El Nino!!

Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
forgive me presslord.. it was back in the 80s, i had to serve shecrab soup. make the cocktails , btw,, were you my boss??


not likely...but could very well have been a customer...
press, you got mail..:)
The worst Florida freeze ever occurred on this date in 1894. On that day, the temperature at Orlando sunk to an all-time record low of 18 degrees. Two months later, another cold spell helped to destroy 98% of the Florida citrus trees.
The GFS and ECMWF don't agree on the timing of the coldest air but both models show an Arctic breakout.
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS and ECMWF don't agree on the timing of the coldest air but both models show an Arctic breakout.


Hallelujah, it's about time they agreed.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The worst Florida freeze ever occurred on this date in 1894. On that day, the temperature at Orlando sunk to an all-time record low of 18 degrees. Two months later, another cold spell helped to destroy 98% of the Florida citrus trees.
One of the freezes, either 1894-95 or the 1899 it was said the only grove that survived was on Merritt Island. Simply because it was surrounded by the water, which prevented severe damage.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The worst Florida freeze ever occurred on this date in 1894. On that day, the temperature at Orlando sunk to an all-time record low of 18 degrees. Two months later, another cold spell helped to destroy 98% of the Florida citrus trees.


KOG, what is Environment Canada's take on the Siberian/Arctic Outbreak? Do they indicate when/where they expect the frigid outbreak to flood into the US?
GFS 12z 850mb temp anomalies:



850mb temps:

Drakoen, how likely is accumulating snow of an inch or more on the south GA coast if the models verify?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Drakoen, how likely is accumulating snow of an inch or more on the south GA coast if the models verify?


It depends on which model. The GFS would probably just give you a dusting. The ECMWF 00z would give you significant accumulation; the ECMWF 12z much less in precip.
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 8:54 PM CST on December 29, 2009
11 °F
Clear
Windchill: 3 °F
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 4 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the South
Pressure: 30.26 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

How cold was the 850 mb level in south Florida in the 1977, 1983, 1985 and 1989 outbreaks I wonder.

It is interesting that the -30 C 500 isotherm was below us in the 1977 cold snap--we look to have been about -32 C here. That was the only time that 500 mb temps below -30 C ever were recorded here---but the low temp at the surface in the 1985 cold snap was 11 F degrees colder than in 1977.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How cold was the 850 mb level in south Florida in the 1977, 1983, 1985 and 1989 outbreaks I wonder.

It is interesting that the -30 C 850 isotherm was below us in the 1977 cold snap--we look to have been about -32 C here. That was the only time that 850 mb temps below -30 C ever were recorded here---but the low temp at the surface in the 1985 cold snap was 11 F degrees colder than in 1977.


If you can give me more specific dates in those years I can find out.
Hmmm in the 1977 cold snap the -15 C 500 isotherm was at the tip of south FL and the -20 C isotherm was over Cape Canaveral.
Jan 17-20 1977

Dec 24-26 1983

Jan 21-22 1985

Dec 23-25 1989

The maps I am looking at give the 500 mb temps but not the 850 mb temps.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Jan 17-20 1977

Dec 24-26 1983

Jan 21-22 1985

Dec 23-25 1989

The maps I am looking at give the 500 mb temps but not the 850 mb temps.


1983: 0C
1985: 0C
1989: -10C

Those are for South Florida.
anyone seeing any models saying maybe this one bombs se of cape cod instead of the gulf of maine and dumps on us here in se mass or they all pointing to the gulf of maine
Wow that's amazing that the 1989 cold wave didn't result in colder temps than the 1983 and 1985 cold waves---would almost expect mid 20s in Miami!
I posted last time that I will likely need help again for at least one of my friends who is in Florida right now and has to drive home to S. Ontario. I was also going to ask WunderBlogAdmin about why my post on the last blog was deleted, but I think it's probably due to the length. I was going to write my blog entry again but haven't found the time or ended up going on another website, sorry about the delay.
national weather out of taunton mass has not updated their forcast since 430 pm makes me think they are going over a lot of info
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wow that's amazing that the 1989 cold wave didn't result in colder temps than the 1983 and 1985 cold waves---would almost expect mid 20s in Miami!


The 850mb temps don't always tell the whole story. Just gives an indication.
Well back in Jan 1940, Miami had upper 20s 3 nights in a row. The same cold snap that brought Atlanta its record of 5 days in a row with highs below freezing and 11" of snow. I'll have to look back at that one.
The Christmas 1983 freeze does not look that impressive on the 500 mb heights and temps.
What about the 850 mb temps when in snowed in Miami Jan 19, 1977 Drak? And thanks for answering my question! :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well back in Jan 1940, Miami had upper 20s 3 nights in a row. The same cold snap that brought Atlanta its record of 5 days in a row with highs below freezing and 11" of snow. I'll have to look back at that one.


The NARR from PSU doesn't go back that far.

But, regarding those 850mb readings, there was also different placements and strength of the surface high pressure center when those Arctic air outbreaks occur. For example, in the 1983 event a 1065mb high pressure center advected down from Canada it center itself over Texas at 1050mb and provided strong cold air advection.

Quoting weathercrazy40:
national weather out of taunton mass has not updated their forcast since 430 pm makes me think they are going over a lot of info


I can see why, read below, from the WFO Tauton, MA from 4:37PM today, they've got their hands full!

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING
FRI-SAT AT OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE ALONG WITH A TREND MORE
OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MUCH
FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW BOMBING OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. THE
UKMET IS THE FARTHEST WEST.

THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE...ALL MODELS TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT /I.E. A NORLUN TYPE TROF/ TO PRODUCE A PLOWABLE
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN
THE MID LEVEL LOW CAPTURES AND PULLS THE OCEAN LOW WESTWARD TO JUST
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SYSTEM BECOMING A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW INTO THE
REGION...YIELDING IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND INTO SUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE ON THE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE INTERACTION/PHASING INCLUDING
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE LOW.

IF this happens, you're gonna have one BIG snowstorm.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The Christmas 1983 freeze does not look that impressive on the 500 mb heights and temps.


It does to me. 486dm at 500mb over the Northeast region and wide spread Arctic air with the longwave trough across the eastern 2/3 of the country.
The Jan 1985 freeze when it was 30 at MIA and 6 here is a little more impressive than the 1983 Christmas freeze on the 500 mb charts, but not much---and much warmer than in 1977.
The Jan 1985 high pressure was pretty weak, with pressures only in the 1032-1035 range but there was a monster low over Quebec---the area inside the 956 mb line is huge!
so far forcaster on tv think this will be a northern new england block buster
Quoting Bordonaro:


I can see why, read below, from the WFO Tauton, MA from 4:37PM today, they've got their hands full!

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING
FRI-SAT AT OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE ALONG WITH A TREND MORE
OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MUCH
FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW BOMBING OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. THE
UKMET IS THE FARTHEST WEST.

THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE...ALL MODELS TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT /I.E. A NORLUN TYPE TROF/ TO PRODUCE A PLOWABLE
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN
THE MID LEVEL LOW CAPTURES AND PULLS THE OCEAN LOW WESTWARD TO JUST
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SYSTEM BECOMING A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW INTO THE
REGION...YIELDING IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND INTO SUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE ON THE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE INTERACTION/PHASING INCLUDING
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE LOW.

IF this happens, you're gonna have one BIG snowstorm.
its already here dev on national radarmovin e ne

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The Jan 1985 freeze when it was 30 at MIA and 6 here is a little more impressive than the 1983 Christmas freeze on the 500 mb charts, but not much---and much warmer than in 1977.


The 1985 event showed 486dm on the 500mb charts with a strong low advecting up into the Canadian Meritimes with strong CAA behind the low. 510dm on the 1000mb-500mb charts reaches portions of the southern Tennessee River Valley around Northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
I wonder if we'll see the like of the 1977, 1985 or 1989 cold outbreaks again Drakoen.
I am looking at the 1940 outbreak--pity no upper air charts. The upper air charts in the Feb 1899 outbreak would have been something to see too.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder if we'll see the like of the 1977, 1985 or 1989 cold outbreaks again Drakoen.


Sure would be interesting...
728. jipmg
Sigh I hate ignorant people, this has little to do with this blog but, my friend I was showing him model runs during the hurricane season, and he would get all excited, and I tell him that long term models aren't reliable, but just to watch out. Then when what the models said didn't happen, he said "Oh the models suck, they are always wrong, its never ganna happen here, never, so I dont care" then I show him the current models, showing a major cold blast, and he is like "OH WHO IS FORECASTING THAT" and I said, no its a long term model run, and he is like "Oh wow they are always wrong, so its not ganna happen, bye" ...

I then tell him, well were do you think forecasting from meteorologist come from? And he is like, not models, because they are wrong.

That just really tiks me off.
Look at days 7-10.....LOOKS like a South Snow storm still coming...


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its already here dev on national radarmovin e ne



KOG, what you see may be a part of this storm in the future. This is what they're talking about moving westward towards New England, 00Z, 1-2-10 90HRS out, GFS Run, surface map:

LOOK at days 6-10 with the intense winds




Quoting TampaSpin:
Look at days 7-10.....LOOKS like a South Snow storm still coming...




That's scary, bringing sub freezing temps all the way to Northern Mexico!!
It sure looks to me like a Snow Storm into Florida is certainly very possible if this is all in place......this could certainly be interesting come Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
GFS 00z still on with the Arctic outbreak:

Quoting jipmg:
Sigh I hate ignorant people, this has little to do with this blog but, my friend I was showing him model runs during the hurricane season, and he would get all excited, and I tell him that long term models aren't reliable, but just to watch out. Then when what the models said didn't happen, he said "Oh the models suck, they are always wrong, its never ganna happen here, never, so I dont care" then I show him the current models, showing a major cold blast, and he is like "OH WHO IS FORECASTING THAT" and I said, no its a long term model run, and he is like "Oh wow they are always wrong, so its not ganna happen, bye" ...

I then tell him, well were do you think forecasting from meteorologist come from? And he is like, not models, because they are wrong.

That just really tiks me off.


Don't let ignorant people trouble you. People who like/love following the weather need to be able to picture in their minds several things at a time. Models cannot think like humans, so their forecasts are not always right. Try explaining to your friend that the long range models are used as a tool only, to put together what may happen!
736. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
It sure looks to me like a Snow Storm into Florida is certainly very possible if this is all in place......this could certainly be interesting come Wednesday and Thursday of next week.


how far down into florida?
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z still on with the Arctic outbreak:



What's even scarier is the GFSX 300MB forecast, setting up a long-wave trough from Maine to Arizona/New Mexico around 1-6 through 1-8-10.
Quoting jipmg:


how far down into florida?


Tallahassee maybe Orlando.....is possible! Its just long range model runs...but, there has now been several runs saying the same now....but i still need to get into into a 4-5 day window to have a lot of confidence!
Well durn we are inside the 528 line and no precip! LOL All pain no gain ;)
Quoting Bordonaro:


What's even scarier is the GFSX 300MB forecast, setting up a long-wave trough from Maine to Arizona/New Mexico around 1-6 through 1-8-10.


Heck that trough sticks around for almost 5-7 days in the South....don't know i have ever really seen it stay in place that long before.
741. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:


Heck that trough sticks around for almost 5-7 days in the South....don't know i have ever really seen it stay in place that long before.


yep, early 7 day forecasts, showign 60s for highsi n miami, and lasting, with 40s for over night lows for consecutive days, usually we drop undre 70 for a day or two, then go back up to around 80
Without truly sticking my neck out too far but, my best guess would be the Gulf Coast States from Louisiana to the East Atlantic Coast could be in for a wild Snow Storm next week. Nothern Florida could see some very significant snow fall amounts if that cold air gets in place that the models are showing.
743. jipmg
Oh my god at my spelling.. staying on the computer for hours is hurting my typing..
744. unf97
The model runs over the next 72 hours will tell the story with regards to whether or not the GOM Low will materialize next week. Even if it doesnlt materialize, one certainty though is that the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS is really going to get extremely cold over the next couple of weeks.

With the El Nino pattern and the massive cold outbreak coming into play, I think there will be a few other opportunities for significant winter storms to develop during the first couple of weeks in January.
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian
Quoting unf97:
The model runs over the next 72 hours will tell the story with regards to whether or not the GOM Low will materialize next week. Even if it doesnlt materialize, one certainty though is that the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS is really going to get extremely cold over the next couple of weeks.

With the El Nino pattern and the massive cold outbreak coming into play, I think there will be a few other opportunities for significant winter storms to develop during the first couple of weeks in January.


I posted on my blog in the comments this morning that we could see some Gulf Coast Clippers........HOW FUNNY!
747. jipmg
Quoting hurricane23:
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian


0C is 32 though.. that is surely cold enough for snow, sure the surface temperature may be 35-37, but snow can't melt that fast
Quoting hurricane23:
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian


I posted above the 1000mb which is surface temps.......it will be plenty cold enough in the Northern Parts of Florida and possibly as far south as Orlando.
749. unf97
TampaSpin,

Fast moving disturbances along the southern branch of the jet stream are a gurantee during El Nino seasons that spawn these storm systems out of the GOM. This will continue all the way into the spring.

So, yes, now with the Arctic air coming down interacting with the active Southern stream, at some point, there could be a nasty winter storm that will really cause some havoc. It is all about timing as always. But, no question, these next couple of weeks are really going to be interesting to say the least for the Eastern 2/3 of CONUS.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted above the 1000mb which is surface temps.......it will be plenty cold enough in the Northern Parts of Florida and possibly as far south as Orlando.


This is certainly some of the wildest weather I have seen in years! To see a trough affecting the deep South for 4-5 days is extremely unusual. This El Nino has caused the SW Sub-Tropical jet to be very, very poweful, ie. the 25" of rain near NOLA this month, the Midwest Blizzard in early Dec, the flooding rains in S FL in mid-Dec, the E Coast Pre-Christmas Storm, the Christmas Blizzard that brought Dallas-Ft Worth, TX near Blizzard conditions and 3" of snow. Next up is the New Years Day Snow event for New England taking shape for 1-1/2 through 1-4-10.

Behind that, we have an Arctic/Siberian air-mass invasion for the 1-3-10 through 1-13-10, affecting up to 2/3 rds of the US at one time!
Quoting unf97:
TampaSpin,

Fast moving disturbances along the southern branch of the jet stream are a gurantee during El Nino seasons that spawn these storm systems out of the GOM. This will continue all the way into the spring.

So, yes, now with the Arctic air coming down interacting with the active Southern stream, at some point, there could be a nasty winter storm that will really cause some havoc. It is all about timing as always. But, no question, these next couple of weeks are really going to be interesting to say the least for the Eastern 2/3 of CONUS.


That trough does not appear to be moving much for the next seven days once it gets in place late next week.....you are so correct..i don't see any way not to have a major Snow Storm in the SouthEast if that cold air pans out to be true and the models have been holding on to that for several runs now......but its still long term forecasting and things can change.
Any snow predictions for coastal southern New Hampshire
how cold will south tx will be next week
Quoting btwntx08:
how cold will south tx will be next week


A lil too early to call it. The DFW area forecast is calling for temps about 10F below normal from 1-3-10 through 1-7-10. The ECMWF/GFS have agreed there will be an Arctic Incursion into the USA. Timing is up in the air, as both models haven't agreed on when/or exactly where the coldest air will be.

The time from 1-04-10 through 1-15-10 will be extremely interesting!! Looks like the best shot of Arctic air arrives from 1-6-10 through 1-9-10 for Texas.
Quoting bassis:
Any snow predictions for coastal southern New Hampshire


Looking at this map below, significant snow may fall over New England from 1-2-10 through 1-4-10. This big L off the coast may move westward torwards the coast, due to the huge Greenland blocking ridge of H pressure:


A snippet of the Area Forecast Discussion, Tauton, MA 4:37PM EST 12-29-09:

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING
FRI-SAT AT OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE ALONG WITH A TREND MORE
OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MUCH
FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW BOMBING OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. THE
UKMET IS THE FARTHEST WEST.

THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE...ALL MODELS TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT /I.E. A NORLUN TYPE TROF/ TO PRODUCE A PLOWABLE
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN
THE MID LEVEL LOW CAPTURES AND PULLS THE OCEAN LOW WESTWARD TO JUST
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SYSTEM BECOMING A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW INTO THE
REGION...YIELDING IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND INTO SUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE ON THE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE INTERACTION/PHASING INCLUDING
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE LOW.
Quoting Bordonaro:


A lil too early to call it. The DFW area forecast is calling for temps about 10F below normal from 1-2-10 into early next week. The ECMWF/GFS have agreed there will be an Arctic Incursion into the USA. Timing is up in the air, as both models haven't agreed on when/or exactly where the coldest air will be.

The time from 1-04-10 through 1-15-10 will be extremely interesting!! Looks like the best shot of Arctic air arrives from 1-6-10 through 1-9-10 for Texas.

ok cool looking forward to what it brings around the 6th cause i'll be in houston on the 6th and 7th
Quoting btwntx08:

ok cool looking forward to what it brings around the 6th cause i'll be in houston on the 6th and 7th


Be sure you bring a warm coat, a sweater maybe wouldn't hurt to get a hat and some gloves.

Quoting Bordonaro:


Be sure you bring a warm coat, a sweater maybe wouldn't hurt to get a hat and some gloves.

thanks for the advice i have everything looks like temps may be in the 30's i think
760. xcool
:0
Quoting btwntx08:

thanks for the advice i have everything looks like temps may be in the 30's i think


To start it eill be in the 30's and 40's a brief warm-up then another shot of cold air moves in!
762. jipmg
Quoting StormW:


True, however that is at 5,000ft. Take that and drag it to the surface warming it at 5.5F every 1,000 ft.


57? Seems kinda average for miami standards to me
Xcool! Congrats on your new baby :0)
764. xcool
bye all im go to bed
Quoting xcool:
:0

hey xcool congrats on ur new baby u must be proud :)
still it will be chilly though thnaks for everything bordonaro
Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 1 sec ago
1 °F
Overcast
Windchill: -13 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 30.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: -
UV: 0 out of 16
this update was put wrong and look what temp they put lol

Blizzard warning for
Baker Lake continued

Severe blizzard continues to affect Kivalliq. Blizzard expected to continue until late Thursday most areas.

A low pressure system north of Southampton Island combined with a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northwest Territories continues to produce strong northwesterly winds over the Kivalliq region maintaining severe blizzard conditions throughout the area.

Northwesterly winds of 50 gusting to 70 or 80 km/h continue to give widespread near zero visibilities in blowing snow over most of the Kivalliq region. Rankin Inlet has now had 60 continuous hours of blizzard conditions since the blizzard began Sunday morning with zero visibility since 5 AM this morning.

Blizzard conditions are expected to continue over much of the Kivalliq region through Thursday before a general improvement Thursday night into Friday as lighter winds finally move in across the area. A break in the blizzard is likely over Rankin Inlet and Chesterfield Inlet Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as winds drop off in those areas. However blizzard conditions are expected to redevelop over those communities Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as northwest winds increase again.

Further north at Repulse Bay reports indicate that visibilities are starting to improve late today. Visibilities should continue to improve this evening and tonight as winds decrease. As a result the blizzard warning is ended for Repulse Bay.

The blizzard will be accompanied by temperatures around the minus 25cc mark with wind chill values of minus 40 to minus 45.

769. XLR8
any one have a guess as to the snow chances for central Mississippi early next week. TIA
HIGH ARCTIC FORECAST FOR NORTHERN CANADA

Blizzard warning in effect.

Tonight Blizzard. Wind north 70 km/h gusting to 90 diminishing to 50 gusting to 70 after midnight. Low minus 33. Wind chill minus 50. Wednesday Blizzard. Wind north 50 km/h gusting to 70. Temperature steady near minus 33. Wind chill minus 53. Wednesday night Blizzard. Wind north 40 km/h gusting to 60. Temperature steady near minus 34. Wind chill minus 54. Thursday Blizzard. Windy. High minus 36. Friday Clear. Low minus 36. High minus 26. Saturday Clear. Windy. Low minus 29. High minus 29.
From our Arlington, TX 12-29-09 snow :0)

Quoting btwntx08:
still it will be chilly though thnaks for everything bordonaro


You're welcome, enjoy your trip to H-town :0)
KOG. Thanks for the update. Northern Canada is getting hammered! The $64,000 question for today is, "How much of that Siberian/Arctic airmass will penetrate the US, and when"?
Quoting XLR8:
any one have a guess as to the snow chances for central Mississippi early next week. TIA


Still way too early to tell. The EMCWF and GFS models are "up in the air" about the development of a Gulf Coast Low. Will know more by 1-1-10. Checked the latest 00Z GFS forecast run, it keeps all the moisture over the GOM. Sorry :0(
775. XLR8
#774 Thanks it smowed here on the New years eve night of 2000 that was a heck of a night!! Would be nice to have some more at least have a snow day from work come Monday :0)
Hello, I hope everyone had a wonderful christmas. And now to the weather: I have been reading what some of your have posted about a potential siberian polar express that could affect 2/3 of the eastern seaboard, so I want to know what may be the chances of FL (specifically) the Tampa Bay area has of seeing any snow? I actually live not too far from Indian Rocks Beach.
Quoting XLR8:
#774 Thanks it smowed here on the New years eve night of 2000 that was a heck of a night!! Would be nice to have some more at least have a snow day from work come Monday :0)


A portion of the Area Forecast Discussion out of WFO Jackson, MS. in a lot of words, they do not know yet!

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION. MODELS ARE
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN ON AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT WHAT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
IS THE STRENGTH OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NE CONUS AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IT WILL FORCE SOUTHWARD TO MIX WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF TEMPERATURES AND LOW GUIDANCE POPS
FOR NOW...AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR R-/S- AT THIS POINT.
THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS WILL TREND WARMER AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF TREND TOWARD A
COLDER SUPPRESSED SOLUTION IF ANYTHING.

THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHEN TRUE ARCTIC AIR MAY SURGE INTO THE
AREA...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
VERY COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY. /EC/

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello, I hope everyone had a wonderful christmas. And now to the weather: I have been reading what some of your have posted about a potential siberian polar express that could affect 2/3 of the eastern seaboard, so I want to know what may be the chances of FL (specifically) the Tampa Bay area has of seeing any snow? I actually live not too far from Indian Rocks Beach.


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.


But after that Florida very well may see a lot of all-time records shattered(I never seen models predict this much cold consistently for it to not happen:))!

Now the million dollar questian is will a southern streamer get into the Gulf(or better yest the Bahamas) and cause a rare snow event for The Florida Peninsula? Or will it just be a bone dry cold event throughout?

I wouldn't doubt if highs in Orlando don't get out of the mid-30's(despite full sunshine) sometime next week(ouch)!

Since Central Florida sees dry cold air(for the most part) from arctic intrusions, 5% seems about right(though again if models continue to indicate something in the southern GOM, we may very likely up that percentage).
Quoting Bordonaro:


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.
Thank You Bordonero for your analysis and for providing that chart. I knew the odds of it snowing down here are pretty slim. I guess what TampaSpin was saying earlier is you would have to get an extended period of cold weather and a disturbance to form along the jet stream in the Gulf and track to the west coast of FL. now what I don't know is whould it have to track south of the area or north?
781. XLR8
#777 yep that sure is a lot of words...I will keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best. Any way (Happy New Years!!!) to every one on here my hubby works off shore and I follow you all through the summer. You all are so much help with keeping me from going crazy when it gets crazy out there!!!!
Bushfires may have claimed 40 homes





UP to 40 homes may have been lost in the Toodyay fire as authorities assess damage to the West Australian wheatbelt town, north-east of Perth.

A fire, which started at lunchtime (WST) yesterday, raged through the small community 80km from Perth, burning almost 3000ha of land.

Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokesman Allen Gale said the extent of the damage was yet to be realised.

"We can confirm that 20 homes have been lost, but early indications of people moving through the area is that the number could double," Mr Gale said.

"House after house has been destroyed, in a line, and there are still pockets where the fire is still burning."

Three firefighters have received medical treatment for smoke inhalation and dehydration.

FESA said it was thought a resident from the Toodyay area was receiving treatment for burns at Royal Perth Hospital.
Electricity and communication to the area was being restored after power poles and lines were damaged by the fire.

Western Power has turned off electricity in some areas to make it safer for firefighters.

Four water-bombing helicopters and hundreds of firefighters spent the night trying to control the blaze, as strong winds fanned flames which reached up to two metres high.

Homes in Majestica Waters, Lozanda Heights, Vernon Hills, Nottingham Road, Sherwood Road, Folewood Road, Drummondi Drive, Adenanthus Road and Stirlingia Drive have been affected by the fire.

There is no access to the fire zone.

Residents took refuge at the local caravan park, recreation centre and at the Northam hospital and school.

Mr Gale said the reality of the devastation was starting to sink in.

"There's a lot of shock for the people right now," he said.

"The people directly affected by the fire, obviously, want to get back to their properties, but the area is very unsafe.

"There's trees on roads, smouldering, and others are threatening to fall down.

"It's a mess out there, but people in town are helping and wanting to offer assistance, which is great."

Mr Gale said that at this stage the fire was not being treated as suspicious.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Without truly sticking my neck out too far but, my best guess would be the Gulf Coast States from Louisiana to the East Atlantic Coast could be in for a wild Snow Storm next week. Nothern Florida could see some very significant snow fall amounts if that cold air gets in place that the models are showing.


gotta love TampaSpin...
accuweather forecasts rain with a temperature of 39 next wed. for my area. Of course the outlining areas such as new port richey, tampa, and brooksville will be near freezing. This is def. getting interesting.
hello GTcoolie. If you are that cold, it will be arctic here where i am.

Ike! where are you this morning? need someone to douse this cold-weather foolishness with some hot air!
786. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


gotta love TampaSpin...


It ain't happening.
787. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. extended discussion....

"BY MIDDAY FRI MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE CWFA MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN USHERS ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES FRI AFT THROUGH SUN BECOMING REINFORCED BY MORE COLD AIR TO
THE NORTH LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF MAIN TROF OFF THE EAST COAST. TO THE
SOUTH THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WAS NOTED BY
EARLIER MODEL RUNS NOW LOOKS TO BE NOTHING BUT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DAMPING QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT UPON THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES RESULTING IN MAYBE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MOSTLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST INITIALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY MON EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TUE AND WED MORNING. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALSO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. AS
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PDS...BASICALLY LOADED THE CURRENT 00Z MOS
GUIDE AND TWEAKED IT DOWNWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK."
788. IKE
Quoting IKE:


It ain't happening.


Or is it?....if it does....crow me baby...

New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...
A STRONG POLAR AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
MOVE EAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT TIMING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
IS GOING TO MEAN EVERYTHING WITH THE FCAST STARTING THE NEW WEEK.
HAVE SET A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TO MAINLY SHOW CONSISTENCY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM ATTM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO MASS FIELDS. WE DO NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
POINT WITH POP NUMBERS DUE TO THE SHIFTING FROM VERY DRY IN ONE
RUN TO SNOW STORM IN ANOTHER. THIS SCENARIO WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FCAST."
I'm freezin'...
sechawk 604 On February 14, the low temperature in Miami, Florida was 29 °F (−2 °C), the second-coldest (and the first sub-freezing) temperature that the city has ever recorded.

This is an entry from the logbook at Biscayne House of Refuge, December 29, 1894.. the first of the freezes that winter. The HOR was located about 72 street on what we call today Miami Beach.

W.H. Fulford Keeper
Dec. 29,1894. Very Cold, sunrise 30 degrees, noon 35 degrees. 13

now, the winter cold snap of Thanksgiving 1876 was also cold, my Great Great Grandfather Keeper at Orange Grove HOR while leaving Biscayne HOR from meeting the Superintendant Dist 5 USLSS, killed a small (4ft)crocodile at the mouth of Indian Creek with a stick because it was comotose from the cold. His son Charlie Pierce at Orange Grove HOR reported that a bucket of water on the porch froze solid through. (Delray Brach, on the ocean dune)
792. IKE
Looks like nice weather for Miami,FL. on Sunday and Monday...

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 69.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.




A little chillier up here in the panhandle...

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 50.
Those Miami temps must be at the coast. I'm ~5 miles inland and temps will be ~5 deg cooler, still not bad. The jet needs to stay north, I'm just getting some vine ripe tomatoes on my plants, don't want any freeze.
Rain wraps up wet month in NSW, Australia

A rainy end to the month gave a welcomed Christmas present to areas of New South Wales, while breaking records for December falls across the state.

From the central west to the northwest and stretching over the northeast coast, areas saw December rainfall records broken as the holiday dumping raised the totals.

December for Dubbo typically means a dry month, usually their second driest of the year. This year brought a change with the total monthly rainfall exceeding the average by 142mm(5.6inches), making it their wettest December in 15 years of records with 189mm.

Wellington saw a total of 173mm(6.8inches) and their wettest December in 128 years of records. Orange saw 123mm(4.8inches), though not record breaking they did see over 40mm(1.57inches) in a 24 hour period twice in December, breaking the previous record of 39mm(1.53inches).

Towards the north, Tamworth saw an astonishing 144mm(5.6inches) so far for December, making it their wettest December in 16 years of records. This is also a feat exceeded only four other times for any month on record.

Towards the coast, Port Macquarie saw their wettest December in 14 years of records with 177mm(6.9inches) and it was the wettest December in 20 years for Kempsey with 163mm(6.4inches). All this was from a low pressure trough which developed from ex-STC Laurence.

- Weatherzone
Well, that was very strange, temp for Macon this morning was supposed to hit 27*F. Had dropped to 28.5 at 0100 hrs and then the wind shifted to WSW. Temp has risen to 36.5 as of 0700 hrs. Covered everything in the veggie garden last night just in case. The broccoli seem to love the cold weather but the sugar snap peas don't care for it at all. I'm with them. :)
796. IKE
I'm at 42.6 in the Florida panhandle. Clouds have moved in overnight.
G'morning Wuba Nation,..

Operation 'Satsuma East' is about to roll this morning.

The ATMO Portlight Launch Vehicle is packed and ready for Launch.

All systems are "Go".

you boys behave...
.."Roger".. on the behave.

Now on the way back though...



Some Light to Moderate rains expected,esp on the return trip this afternoon.



Quoting IKE:


It ain't happening.



Trends are there, let's see what happens mid January / early February when we typically see some deeper lows. The chance of snow in the deep south is the greatest it's been in a long time.
Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Wuba Nation,..

Operation 'Satsuma East' is about to roll this morning.

The ATMO Portlight Launch Vehicle is packed and ready for Launch.

All systems are "Go".


What are you delivering this time Pat?
If the CMC is to be believed then their will be a pretty good storm in GOM next week but with that said no snow for Florida just a cold rain with maybe some thunder for Central Florida. THe GFS and Euro does not see this disturbance as of yet. My concern is for severe weather for Central Florida New Years EVE night. The threat should be slight but there. We will definitly pick up maybe 1 to 2" Thurs. night and early Fri. Storms should weaken once the get into S FL as the energy swings up the east coast.
G'morning Aussie,or Afternoon to yas down under.

Were on a mission to help a wu-member in Alabama.

Portlight Mission 12/30/09

Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Aussie,or Afternoon to yas down under.

Were on a mission to help a wu-member in Alabama.

Portlight Mission 12/30/09


Your chariot awaits you Sir Patrap.

But your driver still needs that stiff cup of coffee...
(this particular coffee pot is sloooowwwwwww)
Sir...?

Never say Sir to an Enlisted man,

..now Presslord,we can call "Sir",cuz hes older than Both of us put together.

He creaks when he walks too.
Quoting Patrap:
Sir...?

Never say Sir to an Enlisted man,

..now Presslord,we can call "Sir",cuz hes older than Both of us put together.

He creaks when he walks too.


I'm takin' notes here, buster...
807. unf97
Good morning!

We had a rapid temperature drop from sunset to about 10 p.m. It was 36 degrees registered on the thermometer around 10 p.m. last night.

However, clouds moved in overnight in advance of the next shortwave which will be moving through the next 48 hours. Currently, the temperature is 43 degrees. We will have a brief warm-up today and Thursday ahead of this system, with rain moving through beginning Thursday into early portion of New Year's Day. Then the cold front will pass through and colder air will return for the weekend.

I did a quick review of the WFO discussions this morning and it appears that at this time the ECMWF keeps the GOM system farther south and weak on Monday, while the GFS depicts it closer to the coast with a somewhat better moisture field. Well, either this will be nothing much at all to come of this, or we could see a modest winter event on Monday. Oh the flip- flopping of the model runs! That's the fun part of weather forecasting LOL..

The mets at the WFOs highlight how quickly the models can change and flip-flop from run to run. I am certain this will continue for the next couple of days as well.

Bottom line: One thing for certain is the models are consistent in bring the arctic air mass into the Eastern CONUS next week. It definitely will be bone numbing cold.

Keep watching the model runs as I am certain of more changes will probably ve depicted in the coming days.

Have a great day everyone!
Hee,hee,..hee..

I bet you's are.

We will update by Blackberry en-route and return Boss.
1043Z CONUS Surface Map


60 Hour CONUS Forecast Surface Map.


Note the 985mb Surface Low off the NW Coast

One to Watch for sure,as that one may bring the Artic Ice Box Down.

ECMWF cold solutions are being discounted at this time by HPC.

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
402 AM EST WED DEC 30 2009

VALID 12Z WED DEC 30 2009 - 00Z FRI JAN 01 2010

IT WILL BE A WET FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING ANY RAINFALL OR WINTRY WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES SLAM INTO THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
FIRST SUCH SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED INLAND AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE ELEVATED TOPOGRAPHY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND TO ASSIST IN THE PRODUCTION OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A BULK OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRAW A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF ITS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONTENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE ON THE HIGHER END BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY INLAND BY NEW YEARS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY REGIONS WITH SNOW
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.

THE OTHER MAJOR SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GRADUALLY EDGING EASTWARD WITH ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE LOWER END GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEW YEARS EVE. EVENTUALLY...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND GRADUALLY RISE
NORTHWARD WITH IMPACTS OVER THE EAST ON NEW YEARS EVE. IT SHOULD
PREDOMINANTLY BE A RAIN EVENT...WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
FARTHER NORTH...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE CENTRAL U.S. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN. BY NEW YEARS EVE
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL PLUNGE
WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
THE -25 TO -30 DEGREE MARK MAKING CONDITIONS DANGEROUSLY COLD.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV




Last Updated: 402 AM EST WED DEC 30 2009


Quoting presslord:


I'm takin' notes here, buster...


Sir, do you have your triple thick bi-focals on when your trying to see to write those notes......LOL
Quoting Patrap:
60 Hour CONUS Forecast Surface Map.


Note the 985mb Surface Low off the NW Coast

One to Watch for sure,as that one may bring the Artic Ice Box Down.



Pat that is the culprit that brings the icebox to the south.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Pat that is the culprit that brings the icebox to the south.


That is the one that computer models should get a better handle on over the next couple of days. Right now the models are all over the place but have one thing in common that sometime next week bitter cold air will move south. Will there be a storm to combine forces with this cold is the question?
The consistency of all models bringing the very cold air mass to the SouthEast late next week, i now believe will occur as nearly every model has been showing this for days now. With the SubTropical Jet being so consistent this year in bring moisture to the SouthEast also.....that collision will occur at some point as the extreme cold air stays in place for about 7 days and there is no way some moisture does not hit that cold in a 7 day time. Just my opinion but from Louisiana to Northern Florida. Those peeps might want to freshen up on there driving skills on ice and snow.
GOM IR Loop


what about SE Texas? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm we have lows for tuesday at 24 then 29 then 32 then 30... tell me there has to be moisture in with us....
HERE Is the 1000mb surface temperature forecast for 10 days.....gang it has not changed one bit in the last few days....its got freezing temps all the way to Miami

Good Morning -- Whoo Hoo, I'm out of WU jail!

Thank you Aussie, for the beautiful pictures -- and in this morning's news from down under...

'Best Job' winner stung by dangerous jellyfish
By TANALEE SMITH, Associated Press Writer
1 hr 56 mins ago

First few paragraphs:

ADELAIDE, Australia %u2013 Trouble struck paradise this week when a British man who has the "Best Job in the World" as the caretaker of a tropical Australian island was stung by a potentially lethal jellyfish.

Ben Southall %u2014 who won a contest to blog for six months about life on Australia's Hamilton Island to promote tourism %u2014 wrote Tuesday that he was lucky to have survived his brush with the extremely venomous Irukandji jellyfish.

Earlier this week, Southall was getting off a Jet Ski in the ocean when he felt "a small bee-like sting" on his arm. When he later noticed a tingling in his hands and feet, island staff took Southall immediately to the doctor.

Progressive symptoms of fever, headache, lower back pain, chest tightness and high blood pressure led the doctor to diagnose that Southall had been stung by an Irukandji jellyfish. He was given pain medication and slept off the venom's effects overnight.

Didn't Grothar serve this for that Norwegian holiday dinner?!
Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Wuba Nation,..

Operation 'Satsuma East' is about to roll this morning.

The ATMO Portlight Launch Vehicle is packed and ready for Launch.

All systems are "Go".


Godspeed, AtmoAggie & Patrap! Should we be glad that a caffeinated Atmo is driving today??

Is it a 3-hour tour?

Got camera? Or cell-phone camera? Take lots of pics, please!!
Quoting Canekid98:
what about SE Texas? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm we have lows for tuesday at 24 then 29 then 32 then 30... tell me there has to be moisture in with us....

Not much moisture for us during that time, tmk.
Wow, where have I been the last couple of days. Just now hearing about Operation Satsuma East. Been in similar situation, and had help, likewise. It is my honor to pay it forward to you, Sheri and family! It is a "magnificent obsession"! Portlight, you guys rock the casa! Safe trip and God bless you all!

mary
Quoting TampaSpin:
The consistency of all models bringing the very cold air mass to the SouthEast late next week, i now believe will occur as nearly every model has been showing this for days now. With the SubTropical Jet being so consistent this year in bring moisture to the SouthEast also.....that collision will occur at some point as the extreme cold air stays in place for about 7 days and there is no way some moisture does not hit that cold in a 7 day time. Just my opinion but from Louisiana to Northern Florida. Those peeps might want to freshen up on there driving skills on ice and snow.

For many people in the south, "ice and snow driving skills" means learning how to leave the keys at home and not go anywhere.
Quoting TheKeeper:
Wow, where have I been the last couple of days. Just now hearing about Operation Satsuma East. Been in similar situation, and had help, likewise. It is my honor to pay it forward to you, Sheri and family! It is a "magnificent obsession"! Portlight, you guys rock the casa! Safe trip and God bless you all!
mary

It's never too late! Bless you also, Keeper, 'tis a grand thing you just did!
I know I kid around a lot here...but this time I'm dead serious...

The compassion and generosity of this community is simply overwhelming!! Jeff Masters should be enormously proud of what he's created here...
I hope I don't get banned for this it's off the subject.
But I want to Thank each and everyone of you all for the help,I don't know what I would do, when I wrote what I did on my blog I really didn't expect this at all. I am very amazed and just don't have enough words to describe how you all have made me feel. See usually you turn to family in times like this but my mom or dad after there major divorce don't have anything to do with me or my little family. They both have there own lives. But me and hubby has been together since 1986 and still going strong. Hit a pretty bad rough spot in the last few months and it feels like we are drowning like a bobber. I hope the new year will be better. You all have open you hearts to my family and you just don't know what that means to us. I have meet some pretty magnificent folks on this blog and i feel like your my family. I can't say it enough Thank You so very much. And as soon as we get on our feet I will Pay It Forward. I promise.

God Bless,
Very Grateful,
Sheri
Please don't banned me for this.
Sheri...I'm pretty certain you don't need to worry about getting banned for that...
Please don't banned me for this.

Not to worry, Sheri...they even let ME out of WU Jail for this special day!
I'm a Disinherited Princess, too! Glad to see I'm in such good company!

A smiling baby face when that car arrives will be a huge reward for us, Sheri! I just hope grandbaby isn't terrified!
-----------------------------
We're going to see the movie "Avatar" in a little while! Will check back in to see how the mission is going later today!

Prof. Ricky's blog on the Yaris in Maryland during the blizzard is a HOOT! I got to visit lots of places I hadn't been before while I was banned...they're gonna' be so sor-ree!

Sheri, you're never alone...remember that. Check your WUMail and let us know when Pat and Atmo get there
Hello all. Welcome back AIM!
Quoting presslord:
I know I kid around a lot here...but this time I'm dead serious...

The compassion and generosity of this community is simply overwhelming!! Jeff Masters should be enormously proud of what he's created here...


I've told him that a few times...you are some of the best people I know...
Tampa, ref to the talk about the freezing temps all the way down to Miami. I have seen that we are getting cold fronts, but not nearly as strong as that map predicts. What is the reason for the freezing talk in South Florida or better phrased why is it that the arctic Jet stream is acting this way?
Local forecast I made for my area last night at 6PM EST

..well...here's the dark side...I have a sinus infection, I have a kidney stone...I haven't slept in three nights...and in 10 minutes I have a meeting with a retail tenant who hasn't paid a dime in rent in two months...I'm an Irish Catholic in a foul mood...Care to guess who's about to have a really bad morning?
Quoting presslord:
..well...here's the dark side...I have a sinus infection, I have a kidney stone...I haven't slept in three nights...and in 10 minutes I have a meeting with a retail tenant who hasn't paid a dime in rent in two months...I'm an Irish Catholic in a foul mood...Care to guess who's about to have a really bad morning?


the tenant
Quoting Floodman:
Sheri, you're never alone...remember that. Check your WUMail and let us know when Pat and Atmo get there


Ron, Hey and Thank you. check ur WUmail.I will let cha know when they get here. I don't know when they left.

Sheri
But Press, what you and Portlight have done is what makes all the difference. Might be in a bad mood, but when that present on wheels gets delivered, all those worries and foul moods will go away.


Quoting StormChaser81:


the tenant


Bingo!!
plywood...you are so right...
Quoting presslord:
..well...here's the dark side...I have a sinus infection, I have a kidney stone...I haven't slept in three nights...and in 10 minutes I have a meeting with a retail tenant who hasn't paid a dime in rent in two months...I'm an Irish Catholic in a foul mood...Care to guess who's about to have a really bad morning?
You hang in there Press, the sinus infection and kidney stoner will pass, and a good retail tenant prayer works almost every time...:) P.S. Some hot apple- butter rum will help with the sleep thing, or J.D and warm tea ,ect...:)
Quoting presslord:
..well...here's the dark side...I have a sinus infection, I have a kidney stone...I haven't slept in three nights...and in 10 minutes I have a meeting with a retail tenant who hasn't paid a dime in rent in two months...I'm an Irish Catholic in a foul mood...Care to guess who's about to have a really bad morning?


Geez, press, get that stone looked after...foul mood? I'd be shooting up a shopping mall or something...
Quoting presslord:
plywood...you are so right...


Press, what you all have done,will put a smile on your face. YOU and Pat,Atmo,Flood,OGal,NRAAmy,Aubie,Ally and many many others Are WU Angels in my eyes. There are no words to describbe what you all have done for me and my family.
I send my love and hugs to each and everyone of you all.

Sheri
G'morning, all!
Quoting TampaSpin:
HERE Is the 1000mb surface temperature forecast for 10 days.....gang it has not changed one bit in the last few days....its got freezing temps all the way to Miami



That's some remarkable cold air there, TS.
Mornin', Floridano!
Quoting Floodman:
Mornin', Floridano!


Hey bud, how are ya? I hope that your back is all but fully healed up already, :).
Quoting Floodman:


Geez, press, get that stone looked after...foul mood? I'd be shooting up a shopping mall or something...
Those things really hurt don,t they? Oh yeah, please post right before your next trip to the mall.TIA
Quoting presslord:
..well...here's the dark side...I have a sinus infection, I have a kidney stone...I haven't slept in three nights...and in 10 minutes I have a meeting with a retail tenant who hasn't paid a dime in rent in two months...I'm an Irish Catholic in a foul mood...Care to guess who's about to have a really bad morning?



A Republican, lol, just kidding, Press.
Quoting hydrus:
Those things really hurt don,t they? Oh yeah, please post right before your next trip to the mall.TIA


One of the worst pains compared to having a baby.
Quoting Floridano:


Hey bud, how are ya? I hope that your back is all but fully healed up already, :).


Good...some pain, but mostly back spasms...I walk quite a bit to keep the spasms down (the muscle relaxants make me very drowsy). I got a great surgeon and a great hospital and things appear to have turned out just as planned

Thanks for asking!
854. GBlet
Might I suggest a stiff muscle relaxer to help pass the time umm er stone...
Quoting Floodman:


Good...some pain, but mostly back spasms...I walk quite a bit to keep the spasms down (the muscle relaxants make me very drowsy). I got a great surgeon and a great hospital and things appear to have turned out just as planned

Thanks for asking!


:)
Quoting hydrus:
Those things really hurt don,t they? Oh yeah, please post right before your next trip to the mall.TIA


Oh, I'm not trying to pass a stone so the malls in the DFW area are safe
Morning, Storm! How are you?
Morning Storm:

Is it gonna snow? Is it huh? Is it huh??


:o) j/k

Much better now...

On the phone with Pat and atmo...they're just north of Biloxi on I 10 enroute...they say they're behavin'...but they might be lyin'...
Quoting StormW:


Great!
Question is...how are you??


Good, all things being equal...I walk a lot and after 15 years I'm teaching myself not to limp...LOL

The wife says she can definitely tell the difference; I have less lines around my eyes and for whatever reason I'm taller (maybe the framework they put in when they took the discs out?)...go figure
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Press, what you all have done,will put a smile on your face. YOU and Pat,Atmo,Flood,OGal,NRAAmy,Aubie,Ally and many many others Are WU Angels in my eyes. There are no words to describbe what you all have done for me and my family.
I send my love and hugs to each and everyone of you all.

Sheri
I just caught up on reading about the above and must say it brought tears to my eyes. I immeadiatly went to my knees to pray for you and your family Sherrie and all people affilited with Portlight too. May you all be blessed this new year.
Quoting presslord:
Much better now...

On the phone with Pat and atmo...they're just north of Biloxi on I 10 enroute...they say they're behavin'...but they might be lyin'...


Those two? I ain't saying nuttin...
Quoting Floodman:


Good, all things being equal...I walk a lot and after 15 years I'm teaching myself not to limp...LOL

The wife says she can definitely tell the difference; I have less lines around my eyes and for whatever reason I'm taller (maybe the framework they put in when they took the discs out?)...go figure

Good to hear you are feeling better! As for being taller, take into account that you are probably walking and standing with a better posture, which will make you seem taller, too.

Quoting presslord:
Much better now...

On the phone with Pat and atmo...they're just north of Biloxi on I 10 enroute...they say they're behavin'...but they might be lyin'...

LOL. yeah, right.
Quoting Floodman:


Oh, I'm not trying to pass a stone so the malls in the DFW area are safe
I posted that just in case the medicine from the recent surgery ran out. Thank you for that comforting post.:).... On a serious note, your surgery sounds like it went wonderfully, I believe you will look and feel so much better.
This certainly bears watching:

i do believe in angels,,and there are no words to say , but you all have made a differance in 1 family,, i dont have a credit card as of now,, but ,if i can send a little cash to help.. i will..i wish it could be a lot,,happy and more happy years to you all,, i knew this world was still good,,
G'morning/afternoon Senior Chief, how are ya?
Quoting Drakoen:
This certainly bears watching:

Is there a chance that the Appalachians will recieve some snow from this?
866.

It has a fair amount to do with it...
Quoting hydrus:
Is there a chance that the Appalachians will recieve some snow from this?


Yes
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
i do believe in angels,,and there are no words to say , but you all have made a differance in 1 family,, i dont have a credit card as of now,, but ,if i can send a little cash to help.. i will..i wish it could be a lot,,happy and more happy years to you all,, i knew this world was still good,,


There's plenty of good...we only hear about the bad because it makes better copy
Quoting hydrus:
I posted that just in case the medicine from the recent surgery ran out. Thank you for that comforting post.:).... On a serious note, your surgery sounds like it went wonderfully, I believe you will look and feel so much better.


A little better everyday; still a fair amount of pain, but nothing like before...I had the sciatic limp and constant pain in my leg, whether I was flared up or not...that's gone but I really need to stretch the legs and back especially. I was feeling ill over the weekend and didn't walk much and it's taken til today to get back to where I was. Slippery slope, I'm afraid, for a while...
Drakoen, is that the 32 degree line on those maps?
Quoting Floodman:


Oh, I'm not trying to pass a stone so the malls in the DFW area are safe
I have passed 15 in the last 30 years, but it has been about 10 years since i passed the last one. The drugs for pain has gotten better. I have passed 1 in the er waiting room because there was a 8 hour waiting time in the waiting room. The hospital said they would not charge me for that one. I have passed 2 before i got to the hospital.
Quoting Floridano:
Drakoen, is that the 32 degree line on those maps?


The black line is the 850mb 0C isotherm. You'll also notice that there is moisture off-shore and over parts of southern Florida as a shortwave energy dives into the longwave trough over the eastern United States.
Quoting Floodman:


There's plenty of good...we only hear about the bad because it makes better copy
I know , Why? I guess the negative just sells better. I only read the comics now or I get depressed.lol
Quoting Drakoen:


The black line is the 850mb 0C isotherm. You'll also notice that there is moisture off-shore and over parts of southern Florida as a shortwave energy dives into the longwave trough over the eastern United States.


Thank you very much! LOL, I was following the red dotted line. I've still got much to learn. Thanks, Drakoen. Hey, that precip would fall as rain in SF, right?
eyes, Jerry, and Jeffs...Mornin'!

:)

Quoting Floridano:


Thank you very much! LOL, I was following the red dotted line. I've still got much to learn. Thanks, Drakoen. Hey, that precip would fall as rain in SF, right?


You should follow the red line too...generally precip will fall as snow with a thickness of 540dm on the 1000mb-500mb charts however if the 700mb-1000mb layer is freezing then precip will fall as snow as well.
what are 850 mb temps on the ecmwf
Quoting NRAamy:
eyes, Jerry, and Jeffs...Mornin'!

:)


Mornin' Amy!

How are things going over there in Cali?
885. jipmg
Quoting Floridano:


Thank you very much! LOL, I was following the red dotted line. I've still got much to learn. Thanks, Drakoen. Hey, that precip would fall as rain in SF, right?


Well, if we look at it, wet snow because the temps around SFL should be in the mid to upper 30s, the upper layers would likely be well under the 32 mark. So the snow wont melt too fast.. so its POSSIBLE based on that model, but not likely.
I thought I would you all know Pat and Atmo is passing the chickasaw exit like 10 minutes from my house. This makes you cry that they would come all this way for my family. God Bless them and each and everyone of you all.

You all are my WU Angels,.
God Love You All,
Sheri
Quoting jipmg:


Well, if we look at it, wet snow because the temps around SFL should be in the mid to upper 30s, the upper layers would likely be well under the 32 mark. So the snow wont melt too fast.. so its POSSIBLE based on that model, but not likely.

Maybe. But how high up will the 32F isotherm be? If it is too high, you will just get a cold, miserable rain. You could also get sleet out of that kind of setup.
Quoting NRAamy:
eyes, Jerry, and Jeffs...Mornin'!

:)



I tried to call you, I love everything it is beautiful.
Thank you
Sheri
889. jipmg
Quoting jeffs713:

Maybe. But how high up will the 32F isotherm be? If it is too high, you will just get a cold, miserable rain. You could also get sleet out of that kind of setup.


1000MB is right at the surface I believe
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I thought I would you all know Pat and Atmo is passing the chickasaw exit like 10 minutes from my house. This makes you cry that they would come all this way for my family. God Bless them and each and everyone of you all.

You all are my WU Angels,.
God Love You All,
Sheri


YAY!

One thing that I have learned about WU is that many of the people here, especially those active throughout the year, are some of the nicest people you can find on the 'net. Lots of warm hearts here, and we take care of our own when someone is in need of help.
Is snow still possible in Florida next week?

You'd think I'd have learned how to read those charts with as much time as I spend on this site. Learning impaired I'm afraid.

Quoting jipmg:


1000MB is right at the surface I believe

If the freezing level is at 1000mb, then the surface temps will likely be more towards 33-35F. Definitely possible for snow, but nothing will stick at that temp.
Quoting jeffs713:

Maybe. But how high up will the 32F isotherm be? If it is too high, you will just get a cold, miserable rain. You could also get sleet out of that kind of setup.


Id rather have cold rain than sleet.
894. jipmg
I find it mind boggling, that these models are showing temps really down there for SFL, yet TWC continues to forecast low to mid 70s, with lows just under 60....
888. catastropheadjuster 10:01 AM PST on December 30, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
eyes, Jerry, and Jeffs...Mornin'!

:)




I tried to call you, I love everything it is beautiful.
Thank you
Sheri


you are very welcome, Sheri! A little jewelry always makes a lady feel better!!!

:)

896. jipmg
Quoting jeffs713:

If the freezing level is at 1000mb, then the surface temps will likely be more towards 33-35F. Definitely possible for snow, but nothing will stick at that temp.


hey atleast its something, I have never seen snow in my life, the only thing close to it was HAIL during the 2007-08 summers
Quoting jipmg:
I find it mind boggling, that these models are showing temps really down there for SFL, yet TWC continues to forecast low to mid 70s, with lows just under 60....


I could be snowing in Florida and TWC would say mid 70's with sunshine and warm. There good for nothing now, they werent that good awhile ago , but since they changed its terrible.
bump for Portlight and the Portlight Santas!!!!!!!!

:)
Quoting jipmg:


hey atleast its something, I have never seen snow in my life, the only thing close to it was HAIL during the 2007-08 summers


Especially seeing it in Florida is really cool considering the chances on it happen are very low.
Quoting jipmg:
I find it mind boggling, that these models are showing temps really down there for SFL, yet TWC continues to forecast low to mid 70s, with lows just under 60....
I heard that The Weather Channel is not really The Weather Channel any more. It is The Movie Channel / Al Roker Show.
Wow... look at how low the freezing level will get @ 156hr...

(everything in the deep navy blue is freezing @ the surface).

Quoting hydrus:
I heard that The Weather Channel is not really The Weather Channel any more. It is The Movie Channel / Al Roker Show.


Exactly
Quoting jeffs713:
Wow... look at how low the freezing level will get @ 156hr...

(everything in the deep navy blue is freezing @ the surface).



Its that highs?
Quoting jeffs713:

If the freezing level is at 1000mb, then the surface temps will likely be more towards 33-35F. Definitely possible for snow, but nothing will stick at that temp.


1000MB=350 FT.
Quoting NRAamy:
eyes, Jerry, and Jeffs...Mornin'!

:)



Mornin', dear...how you doing today?
Quoting StormChaser81:


Its that highs?

156hr comes out to about 7-8am EST.
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't see how that meteogram is getting snow at the end of the period when 750mb-surface is all above freezing.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Its that highs?

No, thats in the morning
Quoting StormChaser81:


Exactly
Anytime I could not use the computer, I would switch to twc, but I could NEVER get a weather update. We do have (1) channel that has the local weather, but is rather vague with the forecast information. It really is a bummer.
Quoting Bordonaro:


1000MB=350 FT.

exactly. if surface temps are above freezing, a good amount of snow falling will have to cool the surface before anything will be cold enough to stick. You might get a little on the tops of cars and some rooftops, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Jerry...doin' awesome....excited about the Portlight van on its way!

:)
Quoting jeffs713:

156hr comes out to about 7-8am EST. I don't see how that meteogram is getting snow at the end of the period when 750mb-surface is all above freezing.


I was wondering the same thing though the thickness is at 546 and freezing temps at the surface.
Hydrus,
We have a couple of those down here. On one of them, they had a split screen: one side was a meteorologist giving the days forecast (obviously recorded the day before and not updated), the other side was a live radar shot.

So, I'm watching this at about 10 a.m. and the meteorologist is saying that there would be rain but it wouldn't start until afternoon. Meanwhile, the live radar showed the ENTIRE area blanketed in heavy rain. Last time I bothered watching that.
Quoting Drakoen:


I was wondering the same thing though the thickness is at 546 and freezing temps at the surface.


It could be a warm slot somewhere between 1000mb and 750mb that is expanding the 500-1000mb layer.
Today on, "As the Isobars Turn", many are anxiously anticipating the Siberian/Arctic incursions into Florida and the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS :0).

Will it snow in Florida, will it get down to the 30's in Miami,FL? Will there be a Major New England Blizzard this Holiday weekend? Will there be a Deep South/ N Florida snowstorm develop, that brings snow from Dixie to the home of the "original Boston Tea Party"? How cold will it get in TX? How long will the cold air stay? Will there be record lows tumbling, across the Eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS?

Stay tuned folks, ECMWF/GFS models state there will be an Arctic Incursion, but the ECMWF/GFS disagree on the timing and amount of Arctic/Siberian air mass that injects in the lower 48! Stay tuned, more details are coming on, "As the Isobars Turn"!
Quoting StormW:
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE SYNOPSIS DECEMBER 30, 2009 ISSUED 1:20 P.M. EST


Thank you!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Today on, "As the Isobars Turn", many are anxiously anticipating the Siberian/Arctic incursions into Florida and the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS :0).

Will it snow in Florida, will it get down to the 30's in Miami,FL? Will there be a Major New England Blizzard this Holiday weekend? How cold will it get in TX? How long will the cold air stay? Will there be record lows tumbling, across the Eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS?

Stay tuned folks, EMCWF/GFS models state there will be an Arctic Incursion, but the EMCWF/GFS disagree on the timing and amount of Arctic/Siberian air mass that injects in the lower 48! Stay tuned, more details are coming on, "As the Isobars Turn"!


LOL
Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...doin' awesome....excited about the Portlight van on its way!

:)


:)
Quoting BobinTampa:
Hydrus,
We have a couple of those down here. On one of them, they had a split screen: one side was a meteorologist giving the days forecast (obviously recorded the day before and not updated), the other side was a live radar shot.


In my travels I have seen these types of (weather stations) and they were actually very good. Unfortunately most of them are not. They have changed the format here,it is a little better .
Quoting jeffs713:


LOL


The Meteorologist from MANY of the NWS offices around the US are doing the "fire coals dance" on the latest Arctic/Siberian outbreak.]

I think they're waiting for more agreement between the models. And that probably won't happen until they get a "better handle" on where the Polar Vortex gets set up. The Alaskan models cannot agree past 2 days, from browsing the Area Forecast Discussion's out of Fairbanks, AK earlier this morning. GFS/ECMWF are still arguing about where and when the airmass will go.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Today on, "As the Isobars Turn", many are anxiously anticipating the Siberian/Arctic incursions into Florida and the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS :0).

Will it snow in Florida, will it get down to the 30's in Miami,FL? Will there be a Major New England Blizzard this Holiday weekend? Will there be a Deep South/ N Florida snowstorm develop, that brings snow from Dixie to the home of the "original Boston Tea Party"? How cold will it get in TX? How long will the cold air stay? Will there be record lows tumbling, across the Eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS?

Stay tuned folks, ECMWF/GFS models state there will be an Arctic Incursion, but the ECMWF/GFS disagree on the timing and amount of Arctic/Siberian air mass that injects in the lower 48! Stay tuned, more details are coming on, "As the Isobars Turn"!
I believe if there are any surprises in the upcoming cold weather event, you will know about it before most the bloggers here. Your on this like bark up a tree!
Enjoying what may be the warmest day for about 2 weeks here in DFW, TX.

Weather at 12:45PM CST 12-30-09, SE Arlington, TX:

Mostly Cloudy a few peaks of Sun

Temp: 51F
Rel Hum: 81%
Dew Pt: 46F
Winds: S at 6MPH G 9MPH
Bar Press: 29.99" slowly falling

Looks like we may see near normal temps today, I'd love th have one more 70F day before the "deep freeze" arrives :0)


925. unf97
Bordonardo,

How much snow did you end up getting over there yesterday? Based on the warm-up today, whatever that did fall probably has melted away I assume.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Enjoying what may be the warmest day for about 2 weeks here in DFW, TX.

Weather at 12:45PM CST 12-30-09, SE Arlington, TX:
Cloudy and 49 degrees here on the plateau. Wind gusts to 20mph.
927. GBlet
Any word from Santa Trap?
Quoting unf97:
Bordonardo,

How much snow did you end up getting over there yesterday? Based on the warm-up today, whatever that did fall probably has melted away I assume.


We got 1" in north Fort Worth...as it stopped though the temp rose above freezing and it immediately melted
Quoting hydrus:
I believe if there are any surprises in the upcoming cold weather event, you will know about it before most the bloggers here. Your on this like bark up a tree!


Thanks, The meteorologists, ECMWF and GFS are waiting for the "trigger mechanism" to move into place, vefore they pin down the final forecasts into early/middle next week.

Look at the 12Z GFS Run Forecast (surface temps/winds) for @90HRS, 1-3-10 at 00Z (6PM CST). The Huge 972MB L off of ME will open the floodgates for a portion of the Arctic Outbreak. Notice the big blocking H over Greenland:



Then on 1-5-10, 12Z GFS 144HR (surface temps/winds) forecast sends a chunk of Arctic air towards the S Plains, Deep South and FL:



930. unf97
Thanks Flood.

Sorry Bordonaro on the mistype on your user name on the previous post. I hate typo errors...
Quoting Floodman:


We got 1" in north Fort Worth...as it stopped thogh the temp rose above freezing and it immediately melted


I receieved about 0.25" of snow on grassy areas, tress, cars and it almost all melted by 1Am this morning.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks, The meteorologists, ECMWF and GFS are waiting for the "trigger mechanism" to move into place, ........................................................ LOL ,the same exact 972 MB low that model was showing 2 days ago.
Quoting btwntx08:
what are 850 mb temps on the ecmwf
Quoting unf97:
Thanks Flood.

Sorry Bordonaro on the mistype on your user name on the previous post. I hate typo errors...


No worries! I generate a lot of typos when I'm doing a couple of things once...typically I go back and edit my comments when I see them
Currently 48 at Fort Worth Alliance Airport. Humidity 66% and the winds out of the SW at 9
Quoting btwntx08:


Not sure, let me try to find a ECMWF chart. If KOG is lurking, please post the EMCWF 850mb temps please for this next week. Thanks :0)
New Blog
You ought to see all the stuff my grandson got he was so happy. Loved playing with Ben, they really hit it off. And Pat took pics and he's so awsome, he played with caleb they all did. Thank you all so very much. You made my Christmas for my grandson wonderful.

God Bless
Sheri