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The Life-Saving Bonus from Greenhouse Gas Emission Cuts: Better Air Quality

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:21 PM GMT on May 02, 2016

Climate change mitigation is often portrayed as a burden, with any long-term benefits far in the future. That’s a misleading and inaccurate picture, as emission cuts can produce many benefits right out of the gate. Chief among those is the potential for improved air quality. When we burn less of the oil, coal and gas that produce heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide, there’s also an immediate reduction in the witch’s brew of other compounds that these fuels add to our atmosphere. Cutting this pollution could pay phenomenal benefits in public health, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. In the year 2013, outdoor air pollution was connected to about 2.9 million deaths globally, and about 80,000 deaths in the U.S., according to a 2016 study carried out by the University of British Columbia as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. The global toll was even larger when considering both indoor and outdoor air pollution: more than 5.5 million premature deaths. Two of the worst culprits are coal plants in China and indoor cookstoves in India, according to the report.



Figure 1. Pupils cover their noses after school in heavy smog on December 23, 2015, in Binzhou, China. According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China, more than 50 cities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou, were affected by severe air pollution. (Photo by ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images)

Clean Air Act has made a big impact in the United States
The U.S. has already made great progress in cutting back on some of our worst air pollutants. Lead--a terrible health hazard that still plagues water in cities around the nation, including Flint, Michigan--was once an airborne scourge as well: it poured into the atmosphere every time we pumped leaded gasoline into our vehicles. But a federally mandated switch to unleaded gas has almost eliminated unsafe levels of lead in the atmosphere, with reductions of more than 90% since 1980. More recently, updates to the Clean Air Act have led to big cuts in the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), which team up in the presence of sunlight to produce dangerous ground-level ozone. From 2004 to 2014, U.S. fossil-fuel emissions of NOX dropped 13%, and VOC a whopping 42%, according to EPA data.


Figure 2. Juxtaposed with the growth in many other indices of our industralized society--including carbon dioxide emissions--the United States has made noteworthy progress since 1970 in reducing the combined emissions of six common pollutants: carbon monoxide, lead, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide. Image credit: EPA, courtesy American Lung Association.


Particulates are a particular concern
It’s been harder to cut down on the tiny airborne solids and liquids called aerosols, or fine particulate matter. These are produced by fossil fuel burning as well as wildfires and natural sources. Particulates smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter (0.0001 inch) can accumulate in the lungs and cause both short- and long-term trouble. This includes asthma, lung cancer, and other respiratory ailments, as well as cardiovascular disease, an air-pollution threat that’s gone from obscurity to infamy in the last 20 years. You may be surprised to learn that, according to the WHO, roughly 80% of the deaths related to outdoor air pollution in 2012 were from heart disease or stroke.


Figure 3. Particulates that enter our atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, wildfires, and other sources can be less than 2.5 microns (0.0001 inch) in diameter--smaller in diameter than beach sand or a human hair. These particles are small enough to enter the bloodstream and contribute to cardiovascular disease. Image credit: EPA, courtesy American Lung Association.

How many people does pollution kill?
Why is it that air pollution episodes that kill thousands of Americans don't receive the media attention that, say, hurricanes get? It’s because "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane, and is a much more dramatic event. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general U.S. population is in the tens of thousands each year. The only way to see air pollution deaths is to analyze death rate statistics for multiple years, carefully filtering out other influences such as weather extremes. Over two thousand studies have been published in the scientific literature documenting the link between air pollution and higher death and hospitalization rates. Most of these studies concern fine particulate matter; recent studies have also documented higher death rates from ozone pollution.

Cutting emissions could prevent nearly 300,000 U.S. air pollution deaths by 2030
The startlingly large death toll related to pollution means there is great potential to save lives. A February 2016 study published in Nature Climate Change, "Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C", found that reducing U.S. emissions in the energy and transport sectors could prevent almost 300,000 early deaths caused by air pollution in the U.S. between 2015 and 2030, or about 20,000 per year. The reductions in pollution would also lead to about 29,000 fewer asthma attacks per year in children under 18 requiring emergency room visits, and save 15 million lost adult work hours per year. These benefits would require a reduction of air pollution emissions averaging 2.7% per year beginning in 2015, consistent with the U.S. pledge made at the Paris Climate Summit in 2015 to keep global warming less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. The researchers estimated that the saved lives and reduced health care costs would benefit the U.S. economy by $250 billion per year, and estimated that "benefits seem to outweigh costs by at least a factor of 5–10." Once you include the benefits of emissions cuts for reducing global climate change, these economic gains “roughly quintuple”, they said.

When one adds in the huge health and environmental costs associated with fossil-fuel extraction--such as oil spills, mountaintop removal for coal mining, and failures of coal ash ponds--the benefits of switching away from fossil fuel energy sources are even more dramatic.

How climate change could shape the face of U.S. air pollution
In case we need still more motivation to cut back on fossil fuels, there is also evidence that climate change itself may exacerbate certain types of air pollution. In the U.S., urban air pollution appears to be getting “spikier,” with heat waves, droughts, and wildfires worsening the worst episodes even as many cities experience cleaner air overall. In its 2016 State of the Air report, the American Lung Association noted that most of the cities plagued with high year-round particulate levels made real progress in 2015. Los Angeles had its record-lowest number of unhealthy days for both ozone and particulates. Yet seven cities saw their highest-ever number of days with unhealthy short-term levels of particulates. California’s Central Valley was the epicenter of this syndrome, with persistent high pressure, record heat, and a fourth year of drought gripping the region for much of 2015.


Figure 4. A view of the Los Angeles city skyline as heavy smog shrouds the city on May 31, 2015. Image credit: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images.


More perspective comes from a major report released by the Congressionally-chartered U.S. Climate Change Research Program in April, The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. The report covers a wide range of health impacts, from heat and cold waves to vector-borne disease. Among the key findings in the chapter on air quality:

• Climate change will make it harder for any given regulatory approach to reduce ground-level ozone pollution in the future as meteorological conditions become increasingly conducive to forming ozone over most of the United States [Likely, High Confidence]. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions, these climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms [Likely, High Confidence].

• Wildfires emit fine particles and ozone precursors that in turn increase the risk of premature death and adverse chronic and acute cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes [Likely, High Confidence]. Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes [Likely, High Confidence].

• Changes in climate, specifically rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, are expected to contribute to increasing levels of some airborne allergens and associated increases in asthma episodes and other allergic illnesses [High Confidence].

Check out WU’s Air Quality Awareness Week website
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated the week of May 2-6, 2016, as Air Quality Awareness Week. Check out our special WU website with more background on AQAW, including the major pollutants tracked by EPA as well as safety tips to help reduce the risk of health impacts from outdoor and indoor pollution affecting you and others around you.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Air and Water Pollution Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2016..the Year the Humans realize the World is warming by their actions.



Quoting 393. rdstoll:

Anyone can dream up disaster scenarios. Anyone. Playing them off as some sort of forecast related to global warming is just irresponsible, period. The fact this "study" comes from an insurance syndicate where bigger risk = bigger insurance premiums I think we can all take this report with a grain of salt.

What's disappointing is how global warming advocates sieze on these headline-grabbing reports as so-called evidence supportning their position, which is exactly why no one trust "science" anymore. Congratulations.


Peabody coal's contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case

We also showed that the experts for Peabody relied extensively on non-peer-reviewed reports, blog sites, and think tanks to support their conclusions (paragraph 359 in the report). The peer-reviewed scientific literature is the best source for accurate climate science information. In other areas, the Peabody experts used scientific papers that we showed were incorrect (paragraph 360 in the report, for example).
What 90,000 indigenous people have to say about climate change

A new study attempts to inject some anecdotal heft into the science of climate change by collecting observations from more than 90,000 people that historically depended on nature for their traditional way of life.

Six researchers from Simon Fraser University in British Columbia gathered over 10,000 observations from 137 countries, primarily in places like Central Africa, Central America, and the Himalayas where climate records are sparse and not well documented. In doing so the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, attempts to help fill gaps in the climate record where instrumental data is not available as well as to corroborate existing records.

After sorting through all the observations, which were collated from around 1,000 studies, what the researchers found was largely consistent with climate models predicting changes in temperature and rainfall due to human-caused global warming.


Link
This is a good motivation to do something, been there.... thanks for the updates....
Lol
If u cant get "LoL" right, please, hold yer breath instead.

: P

Here's a extra "L" I had hanging next to some chads here, you can have it fo free too.

But yer gonna have to "Master" dat modify thang first as well.
It's going to be a long long fire season near the tar sands.

Fort McMurray wildfires force evacuations
Fort McMurray mayor declares 'localized state of emergency' for neighbourhood threatened by wildfire

Link
Hold yer breath instead, this would be great advice for anyone visiting NOLA. Fun place if you can stand the stink.

Weather today is nice with mild temps and light winds.
So much change will be required quickly throughout the industrialized nations in order to have any meaningful impact on GGE's. I would like to see more nuclear power plants built while we wait for renewables technology to advance to the place of being able to handle our power needs.
As Climate Disruption Advances, UN Warns: "The Future Is Happening Now"
Monday, 02 May 2016 10:30
By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report


Each month as I write these dispatches, I shake my head in disbelief at the rapidity at which anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) is occurring. It's as though each month I think, "It can't possibly keep happening at this incredible pace."

But it does.

By late April, the Mauna Loa Observatory, which monitors atmospheric carbon dioxide, recorded an incredible daily reading: 409.3 parts per million. That is a range of atmospheric carbon dioxide content that this planet has not seen for the last 15 million years, and 2016 is poised to see these levels only continue to increase.

Recently, Dr. James Hansen, a former NASA scientist and longtime whistleblower about the impending dangers of ACD, published a paper with several colleagues showing that ACD will push sea level rise into exponential levels by the end of this century. Their paper shows how melting is actually compounding itself, generating dramatically fast increases in both melting and sea level rise. We may well see the current three millimeter per year sea level rise grow to nearly five centimeters by 2056, and continue to increase in a nonlinear fashion.

Scientists in Antarctica are now astounded at the rapidity of the disintegration of the massive Antarctic ice shelves: It turns out the ice in Antarctica is far more fragile and predisposed to melting than was previously believed.

The situation is already dire enough that the conservative UN warned recently, "The future is happening now," and called for more urgent measures to be taken to cut global carbon emissions.

"Many people now think that the problem is solved since we reached a nice agreement in Paris last year ... but the negative side is that we haven't changed our behaviors," Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, told the media recently.

Worsening storms and their greater frequency are wiping out food crops on a regular basis.

As if to underscore that point, March global temperatures crushed the 100-year-old record by the greatest margin we've seen for any month yet. February was also notably far above the long-term average, enough so that scientists described that month as a "shocker," as well as it being "a kind of climate emergency." Then, on the heels of February, the Japan Meteorological Agency released data showing that March was even hotter. NASA data confirms this increase, and also shows that March was 1.65 degrees Celsius higher than the 1951-1980 March average, while February was 1.71 degrees Celsius hotter than the February average over that time period.

more'...
Really ?



Quoting 10. Patrap:

As Climate Disruption Advances, UN Warns: "The Future Is Happening Now"
Monday, 02 May 2016 10:30
By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report


Each month as I write these dispatches, I shake my head in disbelief at the rapidity at which anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) is occurring. It's as though each month I think, "It can't possibly keep happening at this incredible pace."

But it does.

By late April, the Mauna Loa Observatory, which monitors atmospheric carbon dioxide, recorded an incredible daily reading: 409.3 parts per million. That is a range of atmospheric carbon dioxide content that this planet has not seen for the last 15 million years, and 2016 is poised to see these levels only continue to increase.

Recently, Dr. James Hansen, a former NASA scientist and longtime whistleblower about the impending dangers of ACD, published a paper with several colleagues showing that ACD will push sea level rise into exponential levels by the end of this century. Their paper shows how melting is actually compounding itself, generating dramatically fast increases in both melting and sea level rise. We may well see the current three millimeter per year sea level rise grow to nearly five centimeters by 2056, and continue to increase in a nonlinear fashion.

Scientists in Antarctica are now astounded at the rapidity of the disintegration of the massive Antarctic ice shelves: It turns out the ice in Antarctica is far more fragile and predisposed to melting than was previously believed.

The situation is already dire enough that the conservative UN warned recently, "The future is happening now," and called for more urgent measures to be taken to cut global carbon emissions.

"Many people now think that the problem is solved since we reached a nice agreement in Paris last year ... but the negative side is that we haven't changed our behaviors," Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, told the media recently.

Worsening storms and their greater frequency are wiping out food crops on a regular basis.

As if to underscore that point, March global temperatures crushed the 100-year-old record by the greatest margin we've seen for any month yet. February was also notably far above the long-term average, enough so that scientists described that month as a "shocker," as well as it being "a kind of climate emergency." Then, on the heels of February, the Japan Meteorological Agency released data showing that March was even hotter. NASA data confirms this increase, and also shows that March was 1.65 degrees Celsius higher than the 1951-1980 March average, while February was 1.71 degrees Celsius hotter than the February average over that time period.

more'...


The good news.. CO2 increase will probably "pause" for a few years as the El Nino shock wears off and 2017 headlines are likely to be far fewer than this year. Ditto for temperature records.

The bad news (which is what should be acknowledged.. the good news above is just a little breather interval (With high C02.. pun intended)) is the underlying base growth inexorably continues and without El Nino we'll be at this point again by 2020 or so for C02 and temperature. Expect a few bazillion denier posts about a "pause" first.
If we some how mange to clean up the air and water, then everything should take care of itself, and Nuclear Power is the short term fix for a lot of our power demands. Hopefully one day soon we will have cost effective ways to sequester the use of coal and oil for our power and transportation needs.
Quoting 13. georgevandenberghe:



The good news.. CO2 increase will probably "pause" for a few years as the El Nino shock wears off and 2017 headlines are likely to be far fewer than this year. Ditto for temperature records.

The bad news (which is what should be acknowledged.. the good news above is just a little breather interval (With high C02.. pun intended)) is the underlying base growth inexorably continues and without El Nino we'll be at this point again by 2020 or so for C02 and temperature. Expect a few bazillion denier posts about a "pause" first.
DO the ENSO cycles along with the PDO and AMO cycles effect the atmo temps as much as CO2? Which holds the more heat, the air or the oceans, and what effects the Earths temps more?
Quoting 15. NativeSun:

DO the ENSO cycles along with the PDO and AMO cycles effect the atmo temps as much as CO2? Which holds the more heat, the air or the oceans, and what effects the Earths temps more?


ENSO induces shocks which last a year or two superimposed on the basic state atmosphere temperature. PDO appears to be a 40 year periodicity alternating between colder (past 20 years and 1950s to mid 70s) and warmer (mid 70s to mid 90s and mid teens to ??) phases in a way not yet described by theory, just observed. CO2 imposes a slow steady increase in incoming LW radiation and thus slow surface warming until a new balance is reached. The cold PDO of the mid 50s-70s was associated with real atmospheric cooling, that from the mid 90s to 2014, with much slower atmospheric warming but not actual cooling. More rapid warming appears to be in the cards the next few decades and we'll probably get back to the El Nino shock temperatures of 2016, by the early 2020s (assuming no El Nino then)
Quoting 15. NativeSun:

DO the ENSO cycles along with the PDO and AMO cycles effect the atmo temps as much as CO2? Which holds the more heat, the air or the oceans, and what effects the Earths temps more?


NO!

ENSO, PDO, AMO do not create energy, they move it around.

PDO:



ENSO/Volcanic/Solar:



AMO: Link

Temperature increases are the results of radiative forcings of which Anthropogenic CO2 is the largest:



This is basic stuff NativeSun.
Thanks for the stats and prognosis on this issue; when you can "see it" in the air (like in the case of dense smog in parts of China), it can have an immediate impact on the population in terms of their visual awareness leading to protests and speaking out for change-mitigation. The more dangerous issues are the pollutants we cannot "see" whether in the air or water but know something is wrong when people start getting ill or dying from exposure and then they look for explanations and hope that someone (whether their local government or attorneys) will get scientific experts in to figure out what substance and source is causing the illnesses, etc. Water and air contamination, particularly when tied in to industrial production (whether from a small local factory like in the case of Union Carbide in Mexico or from somewhere in the larger industrial base of a region/country), is a huge issue around the world in terms of health hazards and the costs associated with mitigation and regulation.

Quoting 13. georgevandenberghe:



The good news.. CO2 increase will probably "pause" for a few years as the El Nino shock wears off and 2017 headlines are likely to be far fewer than this year. Ditto for temperature records.

The bad news (which is what should be acknowledged.. the good news above is just a little breather interval (With high C02.. pun intended)) is the underlying base growth inexorably continues and without El Nino we'll be at this point again by 2020 or so for C02 and temperature. Expect a few bazillion denier posts about a "pause" first.


There is no pause to come as we add CO2 by the gigatonnes 24/7/365.

if you have some Science that projects that, please share it wit us.

As their is no CO2 abatement Globally in any sense of the problem.
Very reasonable new blog entry, thank you! This news (several media report of it) certainly matches the subject:

Entrepreneurs are selling Australia's fresh air in a can to China
Mashable, 14 hours ago
In what may be the most ingenious money-making idea since bottled water, two entrepreneurs have set up a business selling fresh Australian air to China.
John Dickinson and Theo Ruygrok are the co-founders of Green and Clean Air, a business based in Australia that puts air in cans and sells it to people struggling with pollution in Asia.
They came up with the idea one year ago, after Ruygrok looked at the sky and mused about the difference in air quality when he arrived home from China to Australia. "Wouldn’t it be great if we can take a bit of this air over to China?" he asked Dickinson. ...


Whole article see link above. From the end of it:
The phenomenon isn't unique to Australia, creative entrepreneurs in the mountain regions of China recently started selling plastic bags of air to city dwellers. In Canada, some other geniuses also hit on the gold mine. Vitality Air started selling canned air from Banff in Alberta and Lake Louise in Banff National Park to China in 2015, with its first shipment selling out.
Quoting 8. nymore:

Hold yer breath instead, this would be great advice for anyone visiting NOLA. Fun place if you can stand the stink.

Weather today is nice with mild temps and light winds.


NOLA in June doesn't smell as bad as Secaucus in April. It pales in comparison to the refinery stench that blows across the bay.

It's about like a clean spring low tide smell off Atlantic City's intercoastal waterways. If you don't like it, walk into a restaurant and get something to eat.

(I gained no joke five pounds in a 3 day weekend in NOLA back in 2006 or so. I weighed myself before and after, just to see if the stories were true.)
Zack Labe %u200F@ZLabe

Daily record low #Arctic sea ice extent records were broken every single day this April (JAXA, last non-min -> 3/29)

Link

IMO, perhaps one of the most drastic changes in the Atlantic is the fact that THDV is only running slightly below average in the MDR (as compared to being dramatically below average over the past few years). This, combined with a developing moderate La Nina, may portend to a more active Cape Verde hurricane season than we've seen the last few years.

I bet the 100K at Jazz Fest were jus all dying from the Crawfish Monica and Mango Freeze's odor's and Neil Young's cologne as well too.

: P

Neil Yesterday here.





Zack Labe ‏@ZLabe

Daily record low #Arctic sea ice extent records were broken every single day this April (JAXA, last non-min -> 3/29)

Barf, and sour beer have nothing on the wet cardboard and rotten eggs from the paper mills at Lewiston, Idaho, and Savannah, Georgia.
Quoting 17. Naga5000:



NO!

ENSO, PDO, AMO do not create energy, they move it around.

The sun is the only net importer of energy to our planet. Similar to the way that Trucks, Ships, Trains and Planes do not create goods, they just move them from one place to another.
Arctic Sea Ice Age 2010 to 2015

Link
Quoting 27. RobertWC:

Barf, and sour beer have nothing on the wet cardboard and rotten eggs from the paper mills at Lewiston, Idaho, and Savannah, Georgia.

Same problem that Maine had for the last century. Jay, Rumford, Madison, Skowhegan, Millinocket, Old Town, Lincoln, Westbrook; all those towns used to stink so bad that you WOULD barf (and then smell a little bit worse).
Something I bring up often when I run into the climate deniers. I ask them if they would breathe in a few breaths of a tailpipe. They so no then I ask "why not" to which they respond "its not healthy or good for you". I politely remind them about that effect as being part of climate change.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4 hhace 4 horas
Curious trend in CFS monthlies is a mid-season flip from favorable to unfavorable pattern for Atlantic hurricanes:
Jim Hunt from the Great White Con :

“Steve Goddard” Busted
April 24, 2016

Our headline today is inspired by Tony Heller, probably still better known by his nom de guerre “Steven Goddard”, who excitedly tells the world:

NSIDC Busted!

Link
Climate to inspire exodus from Middle East, North Africa in coming decades

MAINZ, Germany, May 2 (UPI) -- Temperature and sea level aren't the only things expected to rise as a result of climate change. As heat becomes more extreme in some parts of the world, scientists expect a significant rise in the number of climate refugees.

Climate scientists with the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry expect the coming decades to feature a mass exodus of millions from the Middle East and North Africa as extreme temperatures become more common.


Link
Quoting 31. Midweststorm:

Something I bring up often when I run into the climate deniers. I ask them if they would breathe in a few breaths of a tailpipe. They so no then I ask "why not" to which they respond "its not healthy or good for you". I politely remind them about that effect as being part of climate change.


As he puts a cigarette up to his lips and inhales deeply. Then he takes his cigarette butt and tosses it to the ground. I go to Cocoa Beach to surf quite frequently. It drives me crazy smelling cigarette smoke while I'm trying to enjoy my day at the beach. I also hate seeing all the cigarette butts all over the beach.
It's gotten to the point where I wish the city would make a smoking and non-smoking section of beach. It really can ruin everyone's day at the beach smelling people's smoke.
Quoting 20. Patrap:



There is no pause to come as we add CO2 by the gigatonnes 24/7/365.

if you have some Science that projects that, please share it wit us.

As their is no CO2 abatement Globally in any sense of the problem.


The pause will only appear in concentration time series as the Equatorial Pacific cools (to baseline) and absorbs more, masking (for a short time) the effect of the CO2 pouring in from our burning stuff. This happened in the 1997-98 Nino aftermath also. I only mention it because deniers will jump on it and also on the short cooling after the Nino spike of this year and last.

Perhaps I should bet a beer (Or "the usual amount" in the Trading Places movie] that C02 concentration at Mauna Loa will not reach 409ppm or above at any time in calendar 2017. But I would not make that bet even for a single watered down American can of beer out to 2020.


Update.. I may lose this bet. The 1999 and 2000 C02 peaks at Mauna Loa were both higher than 1998 and 2000 was higher than 1999
I think we all expected it but thanks for showing...another quiet season which is great for insurance but terrible for heat and drought
Quoting 32. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4 hhace 4 horas
Curious trend in CFS monthlies is a mid-season flip from favorable to unfavorable pattern for Atlantic hurricanes:

is there one for the caribbean ...I suspect it would the complete reverse
Quoting 24. CybrTeddy:

IMO, perhaps one of the most drastic changes in the Atlantic is the fact that THDV is only running slightly below average in the MDR (as compared to being dramatically below average over the past few years). This, combined with a developing moderate La Nina, may portend to a more active Cape Verde hurricane season than we've seen the last few years.


Quoting 30. tlawson48:


Same problem that Maine had for the last century. Jay, Rumford, Madison, Skowhegan, Millinocket, Old Town, Lincoln, Westbrook; all those towns used to stink so bad that you WOULD barf (and then smell a little bit worse).


Ahhhh, the smell of money! I remember on certain nights at UMaine (in Orono, just a few miles south of the Old Town mill), when the wind blew just right, the smell permeated the entire campus. All the members of the Pulp & Paper Foundation would wax poetically about the smell, because they knew it meant the industry was still doing alright.
I'll bet if you asked the average resident of any of these towns now, they would gladly take the smell back if it meant the return of jobs & economy to their regions, especially in the locales where the mills have ceased all operations.

Funny thing is, they've mostly shut down and primarily relocated to Mexico, where people don't complain as loudly or powerfully about the smell, and the government does less to restrict the emissions than the US. We have NIMBY'ed ourselves out of a nuisance smell, and into a worse pollution problem!
Quoting 39. 19N81W:

is there one for the caribbean ...I suspect it would the complete reverse




It's actually been above average the past few weeks.
Quoting 13. georgevandenberghe:



The good news.. CO2 increase will probably "pause" for a few years as the El Nino shock wears off and 2017 headlines are likely to be far fewer than this year. Ditto for temperature records.

The bad news (which is what should be acknowledged.. the good news above is just a little breather interval (With high C02.. pun intended)) is the underlying base growth inexorably continues and without El Nino we'll be at this point again by 2020 or so for C02 and temperature. Expect a few bazillion denier posts about a "pause" first.

I have a question. We know that certain weather parameters lag the forcing. For example, on a sunny summer day, the daily high temperature typically occurs about 3 hours after solar noon. With respect to CO2 induced global warming, how quickly are the effects of rising CO2 levels reflected in global average temperatures? If there is a significant lag, then could global temperatures continue to rise even if CO2 levels plateau for a time due to the end of El Niño?
Arctic Sea Ice is Falling off a Cliff and it May Not Survive The Summer

Near zero sea ice by the end of melt season. The dreaded Blue Ocean Event. Something that appears more and more likely to happen during 2016 with each passing day.

These are the kinds of climate-wrecking phase changes in the Arctic people have been worrying about since sea ice extent, area, and volume achieved gut-wrenching plunges during 2007 and 2012. Plunges that were far faster than sea ice melt rates predicted by model runs and by the then scientific consensus on how the Arctic Ocean ice would respond to human-forced warming this Century. For back during the first decade of the the 21st Century the mainstream scientific view was that Arctic sea ice would be about in the range that is today by around 2070 or 2080. And that we wouldn’t be contemplating the possibility of zero or near zero sea ice until the end of this Century.


Link
Quoting 42. ACSeattle:


I have a question. We know that certain weather parameters lag the forcing. For example, on a sunny summer day, the daily high temperature typically occurs about 3 hours after solar noon. With respect to CO2 induced global warming, how quickly are the effects of rising CO2 levels reflected in global average temperatures? If there is a significant lag, then could global temperatures continue to rise even if CO2 levels plateau for a time due to the end of El Niño?


So you won't be hanging waiting for my answer I'll just say now it's a good question and I don't know the answer.
Things will change between now and the Atlantic Peak in August (where the Cape Verde part of the season generates 85% of all Atlantic storms in any given year). However, if we swing towards La Nina by August and the current health of the ITCZ remains healthy (due to plenty of rainfall in the Sahel region so far), we could see an above average season this year down the line if sheer cooperates in the Central Atlantic MDR and we don't have the stable air issue/faster trade issue we have seen the past several seasons across the basin.



Quoting 44. georgevandenberghe:



So you won't be hanging waiting for my answer I'll just say now it's a good question and I don't know the answer.


Typical lag time is 30-40 years.
Here's a really interesting summary of two studies describing the interaction between melting arctic ice and the jet stream- and the weather effects downstream in Great Britain:

Link

Hopefully you can read it without registering. Here's the beginning:


Energy and Environment
Dominoes fall: Vanishing Arctic ice shifts jet stream, which melts Greenland glaciers

Investigating the factors affecting ice melt in Greenland — one of the most rapidly changing places on Earth — is a major priority for climate scientists. And new research is revealing that there are a more complex set of variables affecting the ice sheet than experts had imagined. A recent set of scientific papers have proposed a critical connection between sharp declines in Arctic sea ice and changes in the atmosphere, which they say are not only affecting ice melt in Greenland, but also weather patterns all over the North Atlantic.
Another effect of fine particulates on human health:

Link

Fine particulate air pollution linked to risk of childhood autism

Date:
May 21, 2015
Source:
University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences
Summary:
Exposure to fine particulate air pollution during pregnancy through the first two years of the child's life may be associated with an increased risk of a child developing autism spectrum disorder, a condition that affects one in 68 children, according to an investigation of children in southwestern Pennsylvania.




Nice rain!! Over 2 inches today.
Quoting 33. RobertWC:

Jim Hunt from the Great White Con :

“Steve Goddard” Busted
April 24, 2016

Our headline today is inspired by Tony Heller, probably still better known by his nom de guerre “Steven Goddard”, who excitedly tells the world:

NSIDC Busted!

Link


Well Icegate only lasted a couple days. Never forget Icegate 2016.
"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they've been" A hurricane has not roared ashore Florida's coast line in 10 years.I wonder how long that will last.
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they've been" A hurricane has not roared ashore Florida's coast line in 10 years.I wonder how long that will last.

It hasnt happened in so long, some people have have moved there in the last 10 years, some with families now, think hurricanes can't hit Florida!!! To answer your question, I hope it lasts forever, but I doubt it will last more than the next three years.
Quoting 50. Naga5000:



Well Icegate only lasted a couple days. Never forget Icegate 2016.


I as told Jim , nothing says "real science" like a site with Dorthy and Toto in the mast head.

It was a case study though, he hacks up a furball, and the British rags hail it as a new break through . The next week Bad Breath news is pointing back to the British rags. Then Fox News, and the rest of the echo chamber are running flat out.
It's like washing drug money. 3 weeks later it's a proven "fact", and the dirty lie is clean as baby's bottom.
hate for those full water basins to blow over carib boy good luck this cv season.
Quoting 32. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4 hhace 4 horas
Curious trend in CFS monthlies is a mid-season flip from favorable to unfavorable pattern for Atlantic hurricanes:



I don't like the unfavorable pattern at all :/
Quoting 50. Naga5000:

You gotta hand it to Jim Hunt . That whole site of his is set-up to expose "Dorthy and Toto" as the scientific carnies they are . And his graphics on the Arctic are cracker jack.
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they've been" A hurricane has not roared ashore Florida's coast line in 10 years.I wonder how long that will last.
2 to 3 months.
Anybody that thinks politics and climate change aren't bound up together .
Read this :

Jerry Brown Welcomes Rick Scott To California With Climate Change Burn



California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) hit back at criticism over his state’s minimum wage increase from Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) on Monday, telling Scott to “stop the silly political stunts” and instead focus on his state’s struggle with climate change.

In April, Scott’s administration released a radio ad urging California businesses to consider moving to Florida to avoid the state’s new wage floor, which will reach $15 an hour by 2022. Scott then announced he would travel to California himself and personally court businesses in the state.

In a letter responding to Scott, Brown highlighted a 2015 report focusing on the effects of global warming in the southeastern U.S., including Florida.  .................. “While you’re enjoying a stroll on one of California’s beautiful beaches this week, don’t stick your head in the sand. Take a few minutes to read the rest of this report,” Brown wrote in his letter to Scott. “There’s no time to waste.”


Link
looking at the vis loop of the western atlantic cant help but not to see good news. venezuela seems to coming out of a long term drought.
The report Brown mentioned was commissioned by the Risky Business Project, a coalition started by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, billionaire hedge fund manager-turned-climate activist Tom Steyer and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. The group aims to highlight climate change’s impact on the U.S. economy.

According to the Risky Business Project’s analysis, Florida is already facing “serious risks” from flooding and storms, and climate change will only exacerbate those threats.

“By 2030, up to $69 billion in coastal property will likely be at risk of inundation at high tide that is not at risk today,” reads the report.


Link
Maryland climate and health report identifies state's vulnerabilities to climate change

Developed by the University of Maryland School of Public Health's Maryland Institute for Applied Environmental Health in collaboration with the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the report examines the relationship between exposure to extreme weather events and risk of selected health outcomes including food and waterborne illnesses (caused by Salmonella and Campylobacter), hospitalization for heart attacks and asthma, and motor vehicle accidents. Using historical climate data along with health data, researchers were able to describe relationships between exposure to extreme events and risk of these selected diseases. These data, along with the climate projections, were used to calculate health burdens among Marylanders in future decades.

Link
Quoting 58. RobertWC:

Anybody that thinks politics and climate change aren't bound up together .
Read this :

Jerry Brown Welcomes Rick Scott To California With Climate Change Burn



California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) hit back at criticism over his state’s minimum wage increase from Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) on Monday, telling Scott to “stop the silly political stunts” and instead focus on his state’s struggle with climate change.

In April, Scott’s administration released a radio ad urging California businesses to consider moving to Florida to avoid the state’s new wage floor, which will reach $15 an hour by 2022. Scott then announced he would travel to California himself and personally court businesses in the state.

In a letter responding to Scott, Brown highlighted a 2015 report focusing on the effects of global warming in the southeastern U.S., including Florida.  .................. “While you’re enjoying a stroll on one of California’s beautiful beaches this week, don’t stick your head in the sand. Take a few minutes to read the rest of this report,” Brown wrote in his letter to Scott. “There’s no time to waste.”


Link


I just don't want this once sacred blog overrun with the plague that is political polarization, which has been infecting and tearing at our very foundation for years now, well prior to the rise of imbeciles such as Hillary & Donald. If you are a single-issue voter and lash out at those who analyze the issues through deeper means, by all means, pull a Max Cady but please... just... I can hardly trust anyone anymore, modern mainstream politics is a travesty to independent-thinking, sane individuals who lack the sadistic tendencies common among the masses
Quoting 62. hurricaneben:



I can hardly trust anyone anymore, modern mainstream politics is a travesty to independent-thinking, sane individuals who lack the sadistic tendencies common among the masses


Ben ,
That's a pretty wordy finish . And anyone who uses the term "masses" in a post , I have a real problem with.
I am a not a "mass" , and the people dying in India tonight from heat, and drought are not a "mass"


And I would remind you of the title today -
The Life-Saving Bonus from Greenhouse Gas Emission Cuts: Better Air Quality

I am so sorry, that the good ole' days where we all dressed up as our old favorite hurricanes, and went to " Hurricon" are gone.
And we all swap the barometric pressure readings at Ernest Hemingway's home in Cuba.
But if you'll check the archives , Jeff Masters and Bob Henson have been writing some of the most in-depth , and important works on climate change on the web. Not me.

A whether we we change it from really bad , to "Hell in a bucket" , depends on the politics.
The picture of LA reminds me of an old Johnny Carson line when he was hosting the Tonight show in NYC instead of LA: "Here air is just air, but back in LA it's something you can really get your teeth into". This was before there were any pollution controls, and that photo would have been a relatively clear day.
Quoting 24. CybrTeddy:

IMO, perhaps one of the most drastic changes in the Atlantic is the fact that THDV is only running slightly below average in the MDR (as compared to being dramatically below average over the past few years). This, combined with a developing moderate La Nina, may portend to a more active Cape Verde hurricane season than we've seen the last few years.


SAL looking not so dense as well, which if holds, will be interesting starting in about July.
Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 4m4 minutes ago
TORNADO WARNING in Charles co until 7:30p including La Plata and Waldorf
Looks like there's some action close to home right when I'm out of town.

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 33s33 seconds ago
RT @KT421: Massive hail in Rockville
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m4 minutes ago
TORNADO WARNING in Charles co until 7:30p including La Plata and Waldorf
Looks like there's some action close to home right when I'm out of town.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
657 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 656 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LA PLATA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SAINT CHARLES AROUND 705 PM EDT.
WALDORF AROUND 710 PM EDT.
LA PLATA AROUND 715 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PORT
TOBACCO VILLAGE...BEL ALTON...PORT TOBACCO...WHITE PLAINS...POMFRET AND
BRYANS ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Looks like a change in our benign weather pattern coming up for a few days...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
Late good night hello with something to chew over (I think I don't have to elaborate ;-)

Hurricanes key to carbon uptake by forests:
Increases in carbon uptake by southeast US forests in response to tropical cyclone activity alone exceed carbon emissions by American vehicles each year

Science Daily, May 2, 2016, Duke University
Summary: New research reveals that the increase in forest photosynthesis and growth made possible by tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States captures hundreds of times more carbon than is released by all vehicles in the US in a given year.
While hurricanes are a constant source of worry for residents of the southeastern United States, new research suggests that they have a major upside -- counteracting global warming.
Previous research from Duke environmental engineer Ana Barros demonstrated that the regular landfall of tropical cyclones is vital to the region's water supply and can help mitigate droughts.
Now, a new study from Barros reveals that the increase in forest photosynthesis and growth made possible by tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States captures hundreds of times more carbon than is released by all vehicles in the U.S. in a given year.
The study was published online on April 20, 2016, in the Journal of Geophysical Research -- Biogeosciences. ...

Whole article see link above.

Link to the abstract of the mentioned online article.

PhysOrg has an article about that, too, with some figures:


Each map shows the increased levels of photosynthesis and carbon uptake by forests caused by individual hurricanes in 2004. The dotted gray lines represent the paths of the storms. Credit: Lauren Lowman, Duke University
CWG
That storm near La Plata has quite a hook on it. I'd definitely be taking cover if I were there.
Quoting 63. RobertWC:



Ben ,
That's a pretty wordy finish . And anyone who uses the term "masses" in a post , I have a real problem with.
I am a not a "mass" , and the people dying in India tonight from heat, and drought are not a "mass"


And I would remind you of the title today -
The Life-Saving Bonus from Greenhouse Gas Emission Cuts: Better Air Quality

I am so sorry, that the good ole' days where we all dressed up as our old favorite hurricanes, and went to " Hurricon" are gone.
And we all swap the barometric pressure readings at Ernest Hemingway's home in Cuba.
But if you'll check the archives , Jeff Masters and Bob Henson have been writing some of the most in-depth , and important works on climate change on the web. Not me.

A whether we we change it from really bad , to "Hell in a bucket" , depends on the politics.



I am not denying the consistent and utterly alarming (vast understatement) findings regarding the travesty that is climate change, but politicization of a tragedy (or the lack thereof, i.e. another hot topic in politics today I will not dare bring up for fear of retaliation) and drawing political lines that pertain directly to our twisted two-party system will NOT help the cause any one bit. You know, there is such a thing as the Green Party, and Dr Jill Stein has been impressively consistent in platform and motivation in regards to addressing environmental burdens such as climate change and what measures to take, drastic or not. But I will not officially endorse her or her party on this blog
I just don't want this once sacred blog overrun with the plague that is political polarization,

I have seen several comments like this lately , where have all these turnip trucks been parked ?

Because Dr. Masters has been posting about the scientific effects of climate change as long as anybody.
And the deniers show up , and wave their keyboards, and tell us of "unknown cycles". and "LOL's".

If that ain't "politics" , I have a turnip to for sale.




The pollution from coal and other fossil fuel burning in and near Beijing has given 2 men the idea of selling Australia's clean air to the Chinese public.

Feel free to google dat un.

Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

CWG
That storm near La Plata has quite a hook on it. I'd definitely be taking cover if I were there.


Hook and a right turner. Always need to watch storms with those characteristics. Should assume it has a tornado with it to be safe.
Quoting 72. RobertWC:

I just don't want this once sacred blog overrun with the plague that is political polarization,

I have seen several comments like this lately , where have all these turnip trucks been parked ?

Because Dr. Masters has been posting about the scientific effects of climate change as long as anybody.
And the deniers show up , and wave their keyboards, and tell us of "unknown cycles". and "LOL's".

If that ain't "politics" , I have a turnip to for sale.







Well, there you go. You just differentiated politics from science. By politicizing science, you are falling right into the master manipulators' trap. And by master manipulators, I mean the very same multi-national corporations that are directly culpable in environmental degradation (on a national AND global scale) and lobby/blackmail our vulnerable federal government into remaining tight-lipped on the true extent of their culpability. Call me an anti-government, anti-corporate, populist loon who believes that corporations and politicians should be held accountable for their wrongdoings, as insane and twisted as that might sound. You are not fixing the global tragedy of climate change by penalizing unsuspecting citizens and sparing the elite from any form of responsibility. So if you want to play the political game, play the game against the politicians themselves.
One more thing , if one thinks that posting cut and paste of long blocks of text off a NWS site makes this a once sacred blog.

I direct you to the The Asteroids Galaxy Tour


"I wish I lived in a golden age, live'n it up on the Broadway stage"

Quoting 75. hurricaneben:



Well, there you go. You just differentiated politics from science. By politicizing science, you are falling right into the master manipulators' trap. And by master manipulators, I mean the very same multi-national corporations that are directly culpable in environmental degradation (on a national AND global scale) and lobby/blackmail our vulnerable federal government into remaining tight-lipped on the true extent of their culpability. Call me an anti-government, anti-corporate, populist loon who believes that corporations and politicians should be held accountable for their wrongdoings, as insane and twisted as that might sound. You are not fixing the global tragedy of climate change by penalizing unsuspecting citizens and sparing the elite from any form of responsibility. So if you want to play the political game, play the game against the politicians themselves.


Wordy again ?
Dense blocks of text ain't logic.
Quoting 76. RobertWC:

One more thing , if thinks that posting cut and paste of long blocks of text off a NWS site makes this a once sacred blog.

I direct you to the The Asteroids Galaxy Tour


"I wish I lived in a golden age, live'n it up on the Broadway stage"




Ha, funny.
But this blog valued decent HUMAN conversation back then too. Climate change was also a hot topic, rightfully so. People just didn't buy into the political aspect then. And to discuss the political aspect of dire situations such as climate change, I am content with that, but don't bring wholly unrelated topics (i.e. gun control) into the conversation because Mr Al Gore or John McCain is vouching for that position (or the leading candidate of whatever affiliation/party you blindly worship)... only to lash out when the status-quo opinion on the topic is questioned by some "gol-darned" free thinker. Scientific thought does not equate to independent thought, smart thought NOR the right line of thinking. Scientific thought is scientific thought. If you have a PHD in forensic pathology, does that make you a psychiatrist? No. So don't act like it.
Another interesting article:
A cleansing rain falls; a soil-filled mist arises
Raindrop splash is a surprise source of fine soil particles in the atmosphere
Science Daily, May 2, 2016, Source: DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Summary: Scientists have found that rain triggers the release of a mist of particles from wet soils into the air, a finding with consequences for how scientists model our planet's climate and future. The evidence comes in the form of tiny glassy spheres, less than one-hundredth the width of a human hair, discovered in the Great Plains. ....

With this a good night from Europe!
Quoting 77. RobertWC:



Wordy again ?
Dense blocks of text ain't logic.


And you are right, it's not. So amma break it down... bare with me for a sec, will ya? Rulo number ono: the political polarization of the dire issue that is climate change should be willingly ignored. This does nothing but divide the majority on the issue. We should try to resist the status quo and unite the majority in a last-ditch effort to make major progress on cutting back on emission, preserving wildlife habitat, etc. It is that simple, and you wanted simplicity so there you go. It is also logic. Another rule is to quit villifying the impressionable individuals for their wrongdoings and directly penalize the corporate "masters" who misinform politicians and therefore the individuals so as to save a little face. These are two small, but crucial, steps toward progress and they can work if applied through UNITY, not DIVISION.
75. hurricaneben

Writing densely worded blocks of text, using a grab bag of free floating cliche's don't make you "deep".


Quoting 81. RobertWC:

75. hurricaneben

Writing densely worded blocks of text, using a grab bag of free floating cliche's don't make you "deep".





No, and YOU are right. Elaborate on the free floating "cliches" though because I don't see anything remotely cliched about populist sentiment, nor the grim reality that multi-national corporations are NOT our friends nor the environment's
Blue and more blue.

Quoting 79. barbamz:

Another interesting article:
A cleansing rain falls; a soil-filled mist arises
Raindrop splash is a surprise source of fine soil particles in the atmosphere
Science Daily, May 2, 2016, Source: DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Summary: Scientists have found that rain triggers the release of a mist of particles from wet soils into the air, a finding with consequences for how scientists model our planet's climate and future. The evidence comes in the form of tiny glassy spheres, less than one-hundredth the width of a human hair, discovered in the Great Plains. ....

With this a good night from Europe!


Insightful read, thanks.
To the mods -

Are reading this stuff ?

It looks like the North Atlantic cold blob is weakening, and the western Atlantic waters are cooling. This comes in addition to the MDR warming last week. Could the AMO be turning positive?
Quoting 86. HurricaneFan:

It looks like the North Atlantic cold blob is weakening, and the western Atlantic waters are cooling. This comes in addition to the MDR warming last week. Could the AMO be turning positive?

Models show trade winds increasing but the Atlantic is looking better than the last 3 to 4 years i'll say.
Where can I get the NOAA/ESRL long-term monthly anomalies? I need to see the Nov.Dec 1983 average.
Almost there!
Quoting 80. hurricaneben:



And you are right, it's not. So amma break it down... bare with me for a sec, will ya? Rulo number ono: the political polarization of the dire issue that is climate change should be willingly ignored. This does nothing but divide the majority on the issue. We should try to resist the status quo and unite the majority in a last-ditch effort to make major progress on cutting back on emission, preserving wildlife habitat, etc. It is that simple, and you wanted simplicity so there you go. It is also logic. Another rule is to quit villifying the impressionable individuals for their wrongdoings and directly penalize the corporate "masters" who misinform politicians and therefore the individuals so as to save a little face. These are two small, but crucial, steps toward progress and they can work if applied through UNITY, not DIVISION.

I'm not quite sure how you think climate change can be discussed without it being polarized. One party believes it's one of the most dangerous and life-threatening crises threatening our future. The other party believes it's a hoax created to scare the masses, with the current frontrunner offering the suggestion that it was made by the Chinese.
Quoting 89. weatherbro:

Where can I get the NOAA/ESRL long-term monthly anomalies? I need to see the Nov.Dec 1983 average.


Walmart ?

Sorry, such a deep question made me go for the cheap ironic answer.

I would ask NOAA first. If I was really after the Nov.Dec 1983 average.
Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not quite sure how you think climate change can be discussed without it being polarized. One party believes it's one of the most dangerous and life-threatening crises threatening our future. The other party believes it's a hoax created to scare the masses, with the current frontrunner offering the suggestion that it was made by the Chinese.


Bingo !
I am thinking about buying GR2analyst for my computer. Is it worth it?
Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not quite sure how you think climate change can be discussed without it being polarized. One party believes it's one of the most dangerous and life-threatening crises threatening our future. The other party believes it's a hoax created to scare the masses, with the current frontrunner offering the suggestion that it was made by the Chinese.


Just saying that there are viable third-party alternatives that are deliberately whitewashed by the MSM for fear of upsetting the status quo. The Green Party is driven by a platform of a sustainable environment, among other progressive ideals, but where is the support for the wonderfully consistent Dr Jill Stein? I'm not going to argue with pseudo-intellectuals regarding the validity of our "lovely" Mrs Hillary Clinton or "rightfully blunt" Mr Donald Trump, whatever mainstream candidate is brought into the discussion. Why is it that the most consistent and promising politicians are practically buried by allegedly credible MSM sources like FOX News, CNN, MSNBC, etc in favor of those with the most $$$... those like Jill Stein and Gary Johnson who offer viable solutions without the overt "pragmatism" that the masses are damn sick of. You know, if a man wanted a prostitute, he'd ask one upfront, he wouldn't ask a politician to screw him over while he fantasizes about Sunday Night Football or whatnot.

Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And not one word of dense syntax , except you used the word > masses<.

This such a 20th century word. Lenin, Trotsky. Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini , Tojo, all called people > masses<.

People are people they are not > masses<.
I got a call from our neighbor saying that a intense hail storm has hit the area and reported T.S like conditions with heavy wind whipped rain.They will tell us if our house sustained any damage in the morning when the sun comes out.They sent me pictures of nickle size hail that they took while the intense part of the storm had passed.
remember chat yall?
96. hurricaneben

In 1973 I helped build the "Whole Earth Access Company" at 940 Pearl St. in Boulder, Colorado.
A store based on the Whole Earth Catalog.

I did not see you at all .

96. hurricaneben

I have the pictures from 940 Pearl St. in Boulder, Colorado.
Quoting 100. RobertWC:

96. hurricaneben

In 1973 I helped build the "Whole Earth Access Company" at 940 Pearl St. in Boulder, Colorado.
A store based on the Whole Earth Catalog.

I did not see you at all .


Then you should be wise enough to realize to choose a candidate based upon credibility and consistency in platform (in this case: climate change) rather than social status. And that is where individuals like Bernie and Jill Stein lie. If you are truly a one-issue voter or all that devoted to addressing the burden of climate change, you'd know who has stood by your efforts all along... If your vote has been manipulated, fight to address that concern, don't let big $$$ screw you AND the environment over like it has done time and time before. We deserve better than the dysfunctional two-party system that contribute little to our prosperity and do quite the contrary.
102. hurricaneben

You keep looking for that pony . If you move enough manure, I'm sure you'll find it.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 11m11 minutes ago
RT @mcfrsPIO: Water Rescue - Goldsboro Rd & Massachusetts Avenue, several vehicles stranded and high water
Well that devolved quickly into party Hats.




102. hurricaneben

Have one more glass of wine.

Then lecture the rest of us about "life". Because I have my toes curled over the edge of the world.

See, I write a direct comment, and you write an entire paragraph of post new age gobbly-gook.
Quoting 107. RobertWC:


102. hurricaneben

Have one more glass of wine.

Then lecture the rest of us about "life". Because I have my toes curled over the edge of the world.

See, I write a direct comment, and you write an entire paragraph of post new age gobbly-gook.


Yeah, OK, spare me that self-righteous talk. All over a slight disagreement over the competency of today's politicians. And then you insinuate that mainstream politics is not polarized.
Quoting 107. RobertWC:


102. hurricaneben

Have one more glass of wine.

Then lecture the rest of us about "life". Because I have my toes curled over the edge of the world.

See, I write a direct comment, and you write an entire paragraph of post new age gobbly-gook.


"Post New Age Gobbly-Gook"
Funny, because that's exactly the form of pseudo-intellectualism that I've been fighting. Using big words and "in-depth" fallacies to mislead the masses. And, yes, I said it again: THE MASSES. A seemingly easy-going conversation over politics' role in science has devolved into maniacal gibberish, and look how we come off.
110. MahFL
Quoting 19. Gearsts:





Well above normal already, plenty of fuel for a good ave hurricane season or even a slightly above season.
There are two things I cannot stand :

The meme of "Farming Greenland"

And I forget the other one.
Quoting 109. hurricaneben:



"Post New Age Gobbly-Gook"
Funny, because that's exactly the form of pseudo-intellectualism that I've been fighting. Using big words and "in-depth" fallacies to mislead the masses. And, yes, I said it again: THE MASSES. A seemingly easy-going conversation over politics' role in science has devolved into maniacal gibberish, and look how we come off.


Yada, yada, yada .
Quoting 110. MahFL:



Well above normal already, plenty of fuel for a good ave hurricane season or even a slightly above season.


This should be a gradual, but steady, trend that could very well peak PRIOR to the TYPICAL peak which runs between August and early October.
Quoting 112. RobertWC:



Yada, yada, yada .


Yep, keep beating around the bush and accusing others of your very same mistake(s). See how that works out for ya
How I'm currently looking at the blog...
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

How I'm currently looking at the blog...



I signed in just to plus your post Washi
Quoting 38. 19N81W:

I think we all expected it but thanks for showing...another quiet season which is great for insurance but terrible for heat and drought

Ok by me. It only takes one major landfall to make a big impact on the season.
Quoting 34. Gearsts:


2 key ingredients look promising for activity.
Had to play "The Air" from the 1968 musical, Hair.

Los Angeles may look bad on occasion these days, and I imagine heat and drought exacerbate air pollution, but the city and the area to the east called the Inland Empire is much improved over the 1970s when I remember sitting at a stoplight first in line and not being able to tell if the light was red or green because dark gray smog obscured the traffic lights.

Back in the EPA's early days, "Green" was not a political buzz word. The problem was obvious. Solutions were devised and air quality improved.

Not so clear now (npi). Add in the (maybe not so obvious to some) economic consequences that could result from some actions and the forced "believe in science or else" crowd, off-putting of course to right wing Christians, and the result is ineffective political debate, posturing, rhetoric, whatever you want to call it, leading to the current state of U.S. politics - irreconcilable bitterness. On both sides. Da*n shame. It will pass eventually. I'd give it about ten years, two and a half Presidential election cycles.
Test
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 3m3 minutes ago
MT @TerpWeather: If 2.5" report in Rockville is correct, then it ties largest hailstone in SPC records in MoCo

TerpWeather ‏@TerpWeather 2m2 minutes ago
2.25" and 2.0" in Prince William would also be records
Will check tomorrow in daylight but preliminary estimates in dark are that I have had the worst hailstorm in fifty years
of gardening here in College Park. Transplants outside were devastated! Will see if they recover. Tomatoes and peppers are likely a total wipeout. Lettuce is heavily shredded. Broccoli is shredded but likely to recover. Hail in drifts on the ground. Most stones were pea to grape size but in large volumes. Trees are shredded but not defoliated. Significant rain too, guage was not out but appears to be at least 2"
The venom expressed with some of the comments lately, may cause extreme fog to incur in colorado, so sad, it was a good blog. hijacked by a nederland lo-fo,, cheers.
Ok, the VA gave me some pain killers, and I finished the last of my Makers Mark, so if I seem a little slurred, well I have an excuse.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_St ates_hurricanes

In the Wikipedia article there is an interesting graph near the bottom. It seems to indicate a 60 year cycle of hurricanes. What is more it seems to indicate that over the last 100 years they are either less intense or there are less of them. For me this is counter intuitive. I would expect with more energy available and better reporting and more people affected, there would be at least a gradual rising trend, not a falling trend. (This could be due to the storms being grouped by decade, a smoother curve may reveal other information, but at this time I am not willing to get out of the easy chair to put the data into a spread sheet and graph it.)

In any case the graph shows a distinct 60 year cycle, and at least one 9 year quiet period from 1960 to 1969. As I tend to group Carla (1961) into the previous cycle, I have issues with the method used in the graph. However, it does show how even in the lull period, there were quite a few hurricanes with Cammille being one that fell about a decade from the beginning of the quiet period.

So we should get some activity this year, as we had one of the strongest El Niño's ever, and that was preceded by El Niño like conditions for at least a year before, a couple of years of extreme quiet could be expected.

While I kinda sorta expect, (Notice those weasel words, it hard to make predictions especially about the future.) that we will not see a set of seasons like 1999 to 2005 agian until 2040 at least and maybe not agian until 2060, we can expect some dangerous and expensive storms between now and then.

Will this be a year for a Cammille or Betty or Hugo? My guess is an eastern seaboard hurricane, a Hugo like event. But that is just me stressing over the warm pool on the eastern seaboard with next to no science, and plenty of whiskey.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 96. hurricaneben:



Just saying that there are viable third-party alternatives that are deliberately whitewashed by the MSM for fear of upsetting the status quo. The Green Party is driven by a platform of a sustainable environment, among other progressive ideals, but where is the support for the wonderfully consistent Dr Jill Stein? I'm not going to argue with pseudo-intellectuals regarding the validity of our "lovely" Mrs Hillary Clinton or "rightfully blunt" Mr Donald Trump, whatever mainstream candidate is brought into the discussion. Why is it that the most consistent and promising politicians are practically buried by allegedly credible MSM sources like FOX News, CNN, MSNBC, etc in favor of those with the most $$$... those like Jill Stein and Gary Johnson who offer viable solutions without the overt "pragmatism" that the masses are damn sick of. You know, if a man wanted a prostitute, he'd ask one upfront, he wouldn't ask a politician to screw him over while he fantasizes about Sunday Night Football or whatnot.

Speaking from what I've seen around the internet, most of us Bernie Sanders supporters are aware of Jill Stein--she's a second choice for most. A Sanders/Warren or Sanders/Stein combination would be great, but Clinton is on track to be the nominee...

I'm still weighing who to vote for. I live in a swing state, North Carolina. I want to vote for someone who is consistent and honest, and those are not two terms I would use to describe Clinton. I want to vote for someone who cares about combating climate change, and getting money out of politics. Still, I understand that in the current political climate, writing in failed candidacies or voting third party will not change much, and I want my vote to have maximum effect to prevent a President Trump. We'll have to see how polls are going. If the race is tight here in November, I'll vote Clinton. If not, I'll vote Stein.
I complain far too much about rain (or lack thereof) here on the blog. But I have to say, once again, we got not much while many areas around us got clobbered and are still getting heavy rain. This kind of pattern seems to go in cycles and the past year or so, this has happened quite a bit in my immediate area north of Orlando, especially when it is hot and we really need good soaking rain. If we can just get under that red on the radar, even for 10-15 minutes, we are usually set for a few days. The past 2 winters we have had some impressive (and at times massive) rain events.

Wednesday looks promising for an area-wide soaking though.
Quoting 118. unknowncomic:

2 key ingredients look promising for activity.
The weather channel showed the same thing.
August predictions are irrelevant; doesn't matter if it's from the ECMWF, CFS, GFS, or whatever. It's still irrelevant. It's May, and no successful skill for an August forecast can be gleaned this early. Cold AMO or not, high surface pressures or not, there will still be cyclones threatening land in ASO. Model predictions aren't going to change that.
Quoting 129. KoritheMan:

August predictions are irrelevant; doesn't matter if it's from the ECMWF, CFS, GFS, or whatever. It's still irrelevant. It's May, and no successful skill for an August forecast can be gleaned this early. Cold AMO or not, high surface pressures or not, there will still be cyclones threatening land in ASO. Model predictions aren't going to change that.


Yep, Doc Masters compares the skill of hurricane season prediction in may to that of flipping a coin.
  How is that Heatwave coming along.....
I was thinking that they should find a counselor, kinda sounds like kids in the playground not getting along?

BTW, received a little rain here east of Naples today!

Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

How I'm currently looking at the blog...

Quoting 131. PedleyCA:

  How is that Heatwave coming along.....



Cold. Low 30s in the morning... But it did hit 50F this evening. Rained a little today too. Which was good since the military was doing controlled burns on the base near me.

Quoting 133. Dakster:



Cold. Low 30s in the morning... But it did hit 50F this evening. Rained a little today too. Which was good since the military was doing controlled burns on the base near me.
low here was 55.8, high was 84.1.....
Had some visitors yesterday.



They got a new home on the organic farm down the road.



Oh yeah, RECORD HIGH of 80° for today here in Acme, Wa, again. Forcast looks more like a nice week in August, not May.
NO thanks to the bees. I'm highly allergic, although glad you relocated them as they are disappearing off the Earth...
Here's a way to look at it, if Hillary wins, good chance Republicans keep the House and Senate. Hillary is just that polarizing. Here's some good news, we've been trending in the right direction for emissions for awhile now in America. Many countries are really trying to lower their footprint too. No doubt adaptation is going to be foremost in combating what's coming. It's going to be bad, but we've got a good change to stop it from being catastrophic. We are likely going to be watching others in the world take the lead as we lag behind due to continued gridlock in Washington. Minus well get along here even if we disagree. So sick of the polarization, I need to listen to a Kennedy speech.
Quoting 137. DeepSeaRising:

Here's a way to look at it, if Hillary wins, good chance Republicans keep the House and Senate. Hillary is just that polarizing. Here's some good news, we've been trending in the right direction for emissions for awhile now in America. Many countries are really trying to lower their footprint too. No doubt adaptation is going to be foremost in combating what's coming. It's going to be bad, but we've got a good change to stop it from being catastrophic. We are likely going to be watching others in the world take the lead as we lag behind due to continued gridlock in Washington. Minus well get along here even if we disagree. So sick of the polarization, I need to listen to a Kennedy speech.


And if Trump wins, WWIII.... At least that's my fear...

I don't really like any one that is left running, so I am out of the political debate...
Quoting 129. KoritheMan:

August predictions are irrelevant; doesn't matter if it's from the ECMWF, CFS, GFS, or whatever. It's still irrelevant. It's May, and no successful skill for an August forecast can be gleaned this early. Cold AMO or not, high surface pressures or not, there will still be cyclones threatening land in ASO. Model predictions aren't going to change that.
It doesn't stop anyone from looking at them and having a fun discussion about it when there is nothing else going on.
Man I just got blasted out of bed...

One heck of a lightning show.

... An area of strong thunderstorms will affect northwestern
Florence... Marlboro... northwestern Horry... eastern Darlington...
northern Marion and Dillon counties...

At 410 am EDT... an area of strong thunderstorms was over Darlington
raceway... or over Darlington... moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence... Bennettsville... Marion... Dillon... Darlington... Mullins... McColl...
Latta... Quinby... Lake View... Clio... Sellers... Kemper... Bingham... Smithboro...
Blue Brick... Little Rock... Minturn... Fork and Hamer.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 20 between mile markers 135 and 141.
Interstate 95 in South Carolina between mile markers 153 and 198.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds...
small hail... cloud to ground lightning... and localized flooding. It
is recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 15 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Lat... Lon 3400 7989 3434 8000 3474 7960 3419 7895
time... Mot... loc 0810z 238deg 35kt 3429 7989

Shk
Oh no man. Hoping for the best. Still time to replant.


Quoting 123. georgevandenberghe:

Will check tomorrow in daylight but preliminary estimates in dark are that I have had the worst hailstorm in fifty years
of gardening here in College Park. Transplants outside were devastated! Will see if they recover. Tomatoes and peppers are likely a total wipeout. Lettuce is heavily shredded. Broccoli is shredded but likely to recover. Hail in drifts on the ground. Most stones were pea to grape size but in large volumes. Trees are shredded but not defoliated. Significant rain too, guage was not out but appears to be at least 2"

Quoting 139. Gearsts:

It doesn't stop anyone from looking at them and having a fun discussion about it when there is nothing else going on.


I doubt that's what many people here are actually doing, though.
Quoting 135. plantmoretrees:

Had some visitors yesterday.



They got a new home on the organic farm down the road.



Oh yeah, RECORD HIGH of 80° for today here in Acme, Wa, again. Forcast looks more like a nice week in August, not May.


That's a huge swarm, lucky beekeepers got a great jackpot, those bees will have a nice home!
discussing upcoming season is fun. mini late May or early June season is just a few weeks away. good chance we see a cyclone.
are the blogs Down again doc?
president kennedy yrs? politics was just as polarized as today believe it or not. it was scarier living through those days back then compared to nowadays. we practiced hiding under our desk at school daily because of a nuke threat. hurricane were as scary as nowadays too. in 1960 portions of sw florida were under water due to storm surge. something similar this summer would be chaos for Florida. remember donna.
Good Morning Folks; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Tue May 03 2016

Valid 12Z Tue May 03 2016 - 12Z Thu May 05 2016

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible across portions of the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic...

...Above average temperatures expected from the interior Northwest to the
northern High Plains...

A rather slow-moving frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure
along it will continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to the East Coast
states today. The most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected from southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic states into the
Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms for portions of this area. Additionally, locally
heavy rainfall is possible.

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Great Lakes
today before reaching the Ohio valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight into
Wednesday. A low pressure system will evolve across the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms to those areas.

High pressure at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere will keep warm
temperatures in place through the next couple days from the interior
Northwest to the northern High Plains. Afternoon high temperatures in
these areas may reach 15 to 25 degrees above average. Along the Pacific
Northwest coast, a slow-moving cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. The front will move a little farther inland on
Wednesday and Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
for portions of the northern Intermountain States.



OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.
And it looks like the next chance for potential severe weather for the plains may
be next week in the 5-8 day range (but too far out at this point to nail down): here
is the 5 day look and discussion below:


AY

4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY
DAY6...PERHAPS SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS LATER DAYS7-8. TIMING OF
EJECTING SHORT WAVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AND MODULATOR REGARDING SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SCANT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD WITH TIME
ALLOW AT LEAST MODIFIED MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BY DAY5...ADEQUATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...IF STRONGER
FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AS EXPECTED. TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DICTATE SEVERE RISKS DOWNSTREAM DURING LATER
PERIODS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

150. SuzK
Quoting 119. Barefootontherocks:

Had to play "The Air" from the 1968 musical, Hair.

Los Angeles may look bad on occasion these days, and I imagine heat and drought exacerbate air pollution, but the city and the area to the east called the Inland Empire is much improved over the 1970s when I remember sitting at a stoplight first in line and not being able to tell if the light was red or green because dark gray smog obscured the traffic lights.

Back in the EPA's early days, "Green" was not a political buzz word. The problem was obvious. Solutions were devised and air quality improved.

Not so clear now (npi). Add in the (maybe not so obvious to some) economic consequences that could result from some actions and the forced "believe in science or else" crowd, off-putting of course to right wing Christians, and the result is ineffective political debate, posturing, rhetoric, whatever you want to call it, leading to the current state of U.S. politics - irreconcilable bitterness. On both sides. Da*n shame. It will pass eventually. I'd give it about ten years, two and a half Presidential election cycles.


Science is not magic, nor is it superstition. Anyone off-put by science isn't interested in absolute truths. Go be *off-put* in the dumbed-down section. Have a peanut for me. Science is not an opinion.
As noted below, weather and climate change study is a science and not depressing in and of itself. However the "effects" related thereto (deaths related to severe weather events whether short-term weather events like tornadoes and low pressure systems or longer term issues such as extended drought periods, climate driven water shortages, and warming impacting sea level rise and species migration or extinction ) can be. How we act and react to these issues is the rub; not the science itself.
Quoting 148. Geoboy645:

OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.
One day hopefully, we can only dream of such times, and on the weather front, when are we going to get some meaningful rain here in South Florida?
Quoting 152. NativeSun:

One day hopefully, we can only dream of such times, and on the weather front, when are we going to get some meaningful rain here in South Florida?


Cold front is going to make it through the area tomorrow. Best chance of rain we've had in a while.
Quoting 148. Geoboy645:

OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.

At your service. A sunny morning, everyone :-)

Aquarius - Let The Sunshine In (HD)
As we near the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th, interesting to note a little purple there on the TCFP page; I am going out on a limb and thinking that we have about a 75% chance of seeing a storm spin up there before the official start of their season:


Combined image of all basins

Quoting 141. HaoleboySurfEC:

Oh no man. Hoping for the best. Still time to replant.





Plenty of time to replant. This will reduce lettuce yields and quality and also broccoli. My big beautiful tomato transplants were cut to pieces by hailstones but may resprout from leaf nodes and the second set of smaller transplants are beat up but intact. This is a setback but on morning light appears NOT a wipeout.

About half of the foliage from trees is in a shredded green mess on the ground. Still have several inch deep ice piles next to the house and nighttime low stayed above 60F all night with fog.

This would have been much more damaging if it hit in midsummer. July 5, 1991 a similar intensity hailstorm did hit my garden and shredded most of my crops. Smaller succession crops like corn (June planted for Sept harvest) were less affected and the tomatoes and squash recovered. This appears to have been worse for hail volume. The 1991 storm produced larger stones, over an inch.
Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:

As noted below, weather and climate change study is a science and not depressing in and of itself. However the "effects" related thereto (deaths related to severe weather events whether short-term weather events like tornadoes and low pressure systems or longer term issues such as extended drought periods, climate driven water shortages, and warming impacting sea level rise and species migration or extinction ) can be. How we act and react to these issues is the rub; not the science itself.
True statement, but we are far from knowing a lot of the actual causes, due to our lack of knowledge in many area's of the sciences. We discover and learn new things everyday, and will hopefully do so forever, thus giving us hope, that we may find solutions for many of our current problems. Their is a bigger problem on the near horizon, if what some of the leading scientist are correct, than anything we have dealt with so far, anybody want to guess what the problem is, it's not CO2, or overpopulation, but that is a close second.
Quoting 153. Sfloridacat5:



Cold front is going to make it through the area tomorrow. Best chance of rain we've had in a while.
Good, it would be nice to get a couple days of good rain, and I sure wish this wind lays down, as it makes it a little more uncomfortable for fishing and diving when the wind is up, like it has been.
Cayman dry again ......not sure what is in place to keep our area so dry and free from cloud cover but whatever ridge/trough setup is in place seems to be firmly stuck.....
Hello. Professionally interested roofer here. Does anyone know what the setup for severe weather is in the Denver area? Is it due to fronts coming through or more typically due to sort of pop up thunderstorms?
Quoting 161. jitterboy:

Hello. Professionally interested roofer here. Does anyone know what the setup for severe weather is in the Denver area? Is it due to fronts coming through or more typically due to sort of pop up thunderstorms?

Wondermap shows the fronts nationwide at least. You're in the clear until Saturday. Currently under a high-pressure regime.
Quoting 162. ChiThom:


Wondermap shows the fronts nationwide at least. You're in the clear until Saturday. Currently under a high-pressure regime.
. Thanks for responding. I was actaully asking about the big picture not the specific set up today. In general is severeve weather in denver due more to fronts transisting the area or afternoon thu derstorms. Sorry for the confusion.
Quoting 158. NativeSun:

Good, it would be nice to get a couple days of good rain, and I sure wish this wind lays down, as it makes it a little more uncomfortable for fishing and diving when the wind is up, like it has been.


This is typical for my mid May Central Bahamas fishing trip. 15 knot trades and 4-6 foot swell with 1-2 foot chop on top. 40 foot boat and yeah it rocks! But seasickness and getting beat up on the deck is a part of deep sea fishing and I fish with really good guys I've known for decades from work, every year, week after Mothers day. Some years it's almost calm, some years the winds are worse and we have to stay leeward of Long Island.. 10 foot swell is the upper limit for this boat's safety.
Quoting 148. Geoboy645:

OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.


Try April 1 of any year :-)
Quoting 158. NativeSun:

Good, it would be nice to get a couple days of good rain, and I sure wish this wind lays down, as it makes it a little more uncomfortable for fishing and diving when the wind is up, like it has been.


You're going to need to wait until this weekend for the winds to die down. Watch for the switch over to west and then northwest winds with the frontal passage and building seas.

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


REST OF TODAY
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD 5 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

TONIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD 9 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET. DOMINANT PERIOD 4 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 6 FEET
IN THE GULF STREAM. DOMINANT PERIOD 4 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
3 FEET ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO
6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ALONG THE
COAST...SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. IN THE GULF STREAM...SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 8 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT
CHOP.

SATURDAY
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

167. SLU
Quoting 148. Geoboy645:

OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.


It's been very "depressing" for at least three years now with little hurricane activity to keep the discussions on the right track ....
Quoting 129. KoritheMan:

August predictions are irrelevant; doesn't matter if it's from the ECMWF, CFS, GFS, or whatever. It's still irrelevant. It's May, and no successful skill for an August forecast can be gleaned this early. Cold AMO or not, high surface pressures or not, there will still be cyclones threatening land in ASO. Model predictions aren't going to change that.

For some, long range forecasts are only irrelevant if they disagree with what they would like to see happen. If the forecasts agree with what they are hoping for then the forecasts are sacred documents not to be challenged and effective weapons in any debate.
169. elioe
Finnish meteorological institute April summary is out. Our average temperature was only 0.6 C above 1981-2010 normal, but precipitation was almost twice the normal, which is described as exceptional. After a winter with only a small amount of snow, which then melted early, that excess rain was good for plants. Especially when thinking about the weather, that is forecast for the next ten days. GFS predicts commonly 10 C above average temperatures. FMI seems to agree, the maximum temperature forecast for Sunday is +27 C in my town. So, even record-breaking early May heat is possible.
Quoting 148. Geoboy645:

OK quick question. Is it possible that sometime in the near future we could have a blog that is not depressing? I know global warming is a big part of the blog here,but the past week or so the whole blog has been depressing. In both the blog itself and the comments.

You may always dance on the volcanoe...
Check your remark twenty years from now, please.
From the 'What could possibly go wrong?' file:

"Stalking Cave Bacteria to Make Secret Weapons Against Superbugs"

Article/Video Link

"...Descending into the depths, Dr. Cheeptham explores networks of caves to find strains of benign bacteria that can be used to grow new antibiotics. With their almost entirely isolated ecosystems, caves are one of the last places on the planet in which microorganisms are still waiting to be discovered. There, in the dark, she is helping fight one of the gravest and fastest-growing threats to the complex creatures who dwell up above."

What could possibly go wrong??


Very interesting entry.... ties in with personal observations.
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

How I'm currently looking at the blog...

Nice ... teeth.
Quoting 174. Patrap:



That little green dash is over the top of us bringing some rumbles...

Quoting 167. SLU:
It's either hurricanes or global warming on this site. No one on here is happy unless there is a major weather disaster going 

It's been very "depressing" for at least three years now with little hurricane activity to keep the discussions on the right track ....
It's either hurricanes or global warming.  Unless there is a major weather disaster no one on this site is happy.  They can't say "see I told you so".  
need rain............................how nice it would be to wake up to something other than a virtually cloudless sky and sinking air.........I miss those dark rainy mornings we used to have off and on throughout the year
Washington D.C. Area Pummeled By Hail as Big as Baseballs

Sean Breslin
Published: May 3, 2016


While hail as big as baseballs crashed onto homes and cars Monday evening, residents across the Washington D.C. metro area echoed the same sentiment on social media: "I've never seen hail this big before."

Baseball-sized hail was reported in the Maryland towns of Rockville and St. Charles, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, and much of the area surrounding D.C. received hail in smaller sizes as the storms rolled through Monday night. There were few preliminary reports of hail damage.

There have been only eight reports of hail larger than baseballs in the state of Maryland since 1950, most recently hail up to four inches in diameter on June 23, 2015, according to NOAA records, said weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman. There have been only 18 reports of hail baseball-sized or larger (2.75 inches in diameter) in the state of Maryland since 1950, he added.
Experts say they'd be surprised to see the D.C. metro escape this storm without some damage, especially in the areas hit by baseball-sized hail.

"These large hailstones require intense thunderstorm updrafts, on the order of 80 mph, to support their growth. The high-end instability needed for such updrafts are more common in the Plains states than mid-Atlantic states," Erdman said. "In general, baseball-sized hail is sufficient to smash vehicle windshields. If driven by strong thunderstorm winds, they are capable of much more damage, including to siding of homes, roofs, and smashing home windows."

The storms also brought strong winds and heavy rain that were responsible for flooding and damage in the mid-Atlantic. WTOP.com reported that at least 3,000 customers lost power Monday night in the D.C. area, and some properties were damaged by falling trees. Officials did not report any injuries from the wind damage, the report added, but Fox5DC.com said the heavy rain led to several water rescues in Maryland's Montgomery County.

More photos and videos of the hailstorm can be seen below.
179. JRRP7
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
Far N Atlantic SST component of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index coldest on record (since 1948) for April.
Quoting 176. JoeBarnickel:


It's either hurricanes or global warming.  Unless there is a major weather disaster no one on this site is happy.  They can't say "see I told you so".  

Oh, I have become permanently happy because of the entire coral die-off within a generation. I guess you'll bawl. Well, I'm happy.
Told you so. You'll be hearing that one a lot.
GOES East has a floater up on the convective area off of Central America in the E-Pac; does not look like a viable entity (just a convective complex with no organization at present) but a good dry run for the upcoming season. Nice vis shot:



Lordy, the kids these days. LoL

Maybe we need a safe zone for those who come to a Science entry with their"feeling's".

: P
Looks like anti-cyclonic flow above the disturbance, with very low shear, but there is little vorticity at the surface at present: it could improve between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.




Quoting 6. Patrap:

If u cant get "LoL" right, please, hold yer breath instead.

: P

Here's a extra "L" I had hanging next to some chads here, you can have it fo free too.

But yer gonna have to "Master" dat modify thang first as well.


Master of CAHP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N93W TO 07N110W. THE
ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 07N110W TO 06N127W TO 05N135W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 07N81W TO 04N86W TO
07N103W TO 14N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N111W TO 08N129W TO 04N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N AND W OF 120W...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT
33N131W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N133W TO
BEYOND 25N140W. THE SURFACE LOW IS A GALE CENTER. THE LATEST
ALTIMETRY CARRIED SEAS BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET JUST W OF THE LOW
BETWEEN 32N AND 36N. ASCAT IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. A
2324Z RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS AS FAR
SOUTHWARD AS 28N. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CARRIED WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE LOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN WINDS BETWEEN
20 AND 25 KT N OF 28N TO THE NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WED NIGHT AND THU. 20 TO
25 KT S TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF THE
TROUGH AND N OF 30N AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON ACLIMATOLOGICAL GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT MINIMAL GALE
FORCE...30-35 KT...ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND
EVENT.

$$
MCELROY
br style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; background-color: rgb(197, 229, 245);">br style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; background-color: rgb(197, 229, 245);">
LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON ACLIMATOLOGICAL GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT MINIMAL GALE
FORCE...30-35 KT...ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND
EVENT.

$$




Quoting 164. georgevandenberghe:



This is typical for my mid May Central Bahamas fishing trip. 15 knot trades and 4-6 foot swell with 1-2 foot chop on top. 40 foot boat and yeah it rocks! But seasickness and getting beat up on the deck is a part of deep sea fishing and I fish with really good guys I've known for decades from work, every year, week after Mothers day. Some years it's almost calm, some years the winds are worse and we have to stay leeward of Long Island.. 10 foot swell is the upper limit for this boat's safety.
Quoting 180. cRRKampen:


Oh, I have become permanently happy because of the entire coral die-off within a generation. I guess you'll bawl. Well, I'm happy.
Told you so. You'll be hearing that one a lot.


People are trying to save corals affected by Global Warming.
Link

Research Article

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions

Hollie M. Putnam, Ruth D. Gates

Journal of Experimental Biology 2015 218: 2365-2372; doi: 10.1242/jeb.123018
It takes an updraft of 55+ mph to create hail the size of a golf ball, and an updraft of 90+ or more mph to create hail the size of a baseball.

Link

Quoting 178. Patrap:
Washington D.C. Area Pummeled By Hail as Big as Baseballs

Sean Breslin
Published: May 3, 2016


While hail as big as baseballs crashed onto homes and cars Monday evening, residents across the Washington D.C. metro area echoed the same sentiment on social media: "I've never seen hail this big before."

Baseball-sized hail was reported in the Maryland towns of Rockville and St. Charles, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, and much of the area surrounding D.C. received hail in smaller sizes as the storms rolled through Monday night. There were few preliminary reports of hail damage.

There have been only eight reports of hail larger than baseballs in the state of Maryland since 1950, most recently hail up to four inches in diameter on June 23, 2015, according to NOAA records, said weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman. There have been only 18 reports of hail baseball-sized or larger (2.75 inches in diameter) in the state of Maryland since 1950, he added.
Experts say they'd be surprised to see the D.C. metro escape this storm without some damage, especially in the areas hit by baseball-sized hail.

"These large hailstones require intense thunderstorm updrafts, on the order of 80 mph, to support their growth. The high-end instability needed for such updrafts are more common in the Plains states than mid-Atlantic states," Erdman said. "In general, baseball-sized hail is sufficient to smash vehicle windshields. If driven by strong thunderstorm winds, they are capable of much more damage, including to siding of homes, roofs, and smashing home windows."

The storms also brought strong winds and heavy rain that were responsible for flooding and damage in the mid-Atlantic. WTOP.com reported that at least 3,000 customers lost power Monday night in the D.C. area, and some properties were damaged by falling trees. Officials did not report any injuries from the wind damage, the report added, but Fox5DC.com said the heavy rain led to several water rescues in Maryland's Montgomery County.

More photos and videos of the hailstorm can be seen below.
Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:



You're going to need to wait until this weekend for the winds to die down. Watch for the switch over to west and then northwest winds with the frontal passage and building seas.

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


REST OF TODAY
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD 5 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

TONIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD 9 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET. DOMINANT PERIOD 4 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 6 FEET
IN THE GULF STREAM. DOMINANT PERIOD 4 SECONDS. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
3 FEET ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO
6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ALONG THE
COAST...SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. IN THE GULF STREAM...SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 8 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG THE COAST AND 3 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT
CHOP.

SATURDAY
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 5 FEET. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.


Yes, I already saw that, I just hate boating on the weekends, if you know what I mean. This weather wind wise has been a lot more like Fall than late Spring, hopefully we get into a nice summer pattern soon.
Quoting 191. NativeSun:

Yes, I already saw that, I just hate boating on the weekends, if yo know what I mean. This weather wind wise has been a lot more like Fall than late Spring, hopefully we get into a nice summer pattern soon.


You need to be over here from June - Sept when the Gulf of Mexico is like a lake when its tropical storm free (the majority of the time). The only time I like going deep sea fishing is when the water is basically glass (1'-2' sea max).

I went out on a day when the seas were 6'- 8' (occasionally higher) and the day was miserable (boat just rocking back and forth like crazy the whole day). It's just not very much fun.

Quoting 180. cRRKampen:


Oh, I have become permanently happy because of the entire coral die-off within a generation. I guess you'll bawl. Well, I'm happy.
Told you so. You'll be hearing that one a lot.


Speaking of which...

Just out yesterday:

"Ocean acidification may be impacting coral reefs in the Florida keys.
Reefs are dissolving sooner than previously thought"

"Each year the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and become more acidic, a process called ocean acidification. Projections, based largely on laboratory studies, led scientists to predict that ocean pH would not fall low enough to cause reefs to start dissolving until 2050-2060.

For two years, the researchers collected water samples along the 200-kilometer (124-mile) stretch of the Florida Reef Tract north of Biscayne National Park to the Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary. The data provide a snapshot on the health of the reefs, and establish a baseline from which future changes can be judged.

The results showed that reef dissolution is a significant problem on reefs in the upper Keys with the loss of limestone exceeding the amount the corals are able to produce on an annual basis. As a result these reefs are expected to begin wasting away leaving less habitat for commercial and recreationally important fish species. Florida Keys' reefs have an estimated asset value of $7.6 billion."

Link

Link






Quoting 180. cRRKampen:


Oh, I have become permanently happy because of the entire coral die-off within a generation. I guess you'll bawl. Well, I'm happy.
Told you so. You'll be hearing that one a lot.


That is because Coral is evil.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 190. NttyGrtty:

It takes an updraft of 55+ mph to create hail the size of a golf ball, and an updraft of 90+ or more mph to create hail the size of a baseball.

Link




And, increased warming by GHGs will increase the temperature contrast between upper level and lower level air masses, since the warming effect becomes less, the higher you go. Add in moister low level air due to increased evaporation, and the consequent release of latent energy as the water condenses as it rises, enhancing vigorous convection even more, and monster hail events could become the norm in some places.
OMG just had a TS blow through and went to check out the beach and its totally covered in small HAIL! ..wait.. oh.. nevermind :)
Quoting 193. Sfloridacat5:



You need to be over here from June - Sept when the Gulf of Mexico is like a lake when its tropical storm free (the majority of the time). The only time I like going deep sea fishing is when the water is basically glass (1'-2' sea max).

I went out on a day when the seas were 6'- 8' (occasionally higher) and the day was miserable (boat just rocking back and forth like crazy the whole day). It's just not very much fun.


Yes I know all about fishing in rough weather as I use to Capt. sport fishing boats for a living, including a lot of tournaments in the Caribbean and Bahamas. Now that I am retired I do a lot of fishing and diving in South Florida and the Keys. I love those flat calm, lake like conditions, hopefully the weather will start cooperating as this month and the summer arrive.
Quoting 194. ChillinInTheKeys:



Speaking of which...

Just out yesterday:

"Ocean acidification may be impacting coral reefs in the Florida keys.
Reefs are dissolving sooner than previously thought"

"Each year the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and become more acidic, a process called ocean acidification. Projections, based largely on laboratory studies, led scientists to predict that ocean pH would not fall low enough to cause reefs to start dissolving until 2050-2060.

For two years, the researchers collected water samples along the 200-kilometer (124-mile) stretch of the Florida Reef Tract north of Biscayne National Park to the Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary. The data provide a snapshot on the health of the reefs, and establish a baseline from which future changes can be judged.

The results showed that reef dissolution is a significant problem on reefs in the upper Keys with the loss of limestone exceeding the amount the corals are able to produce on an annual basis. As a result these reefs are expected to begin wasting away leaving less habitat for commercial and recreationally important fish species. Florida Keys' reefs have an estimated asset value of $7.6 billion."

Link

Link







It's not so much ocean acidification as pollution from all the development and run off of polluted water from the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay, which spreads East into the Florida Keys.
Quoting 199. NativeSun:

It's not so much ocean acidification as pollution from all the development and run off of polluted water from the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay, which spreads East into the Florida Keys.


That's been an issue too, but these articles and the links that they provide are talking about the acidifications effect on the corals.
Quoting 199. NativeSun:

It's not so much ocean acidification as pollution from all the development and run off of polluted water from the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay, which spreads East into the Florida Keys.

Did you send the authors your note?
Quoting 194. ChillinInTheKeys:



Speaking of which...

Just out yesterday:

"Ocean acidification may be impacting coral reefs in the Florida keys.
Reefs are dissolving sooner than previously thought"

"Each year the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and become more acidic, a process called ocean acidification. Projections, based largely on laboratory studies, led scientists to predict that ocean pH would not fall low enough to cause reefs to start dissolving until 2050-2060.

For two years, the researchers collected water samples along the 200-kilometer (124-mile) stretch of the Florida Reef Tract north of Biscayne National Park to the Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary. The data provide a snapshot on the health of the reefs, and establish a baseline from which future changes can be judged.

The results showed that reef dissolution is a significant problem on reefs in the upper Keys with the loss of limestone exceeding the amount the corals are able to produce on an annual basis. As a result these reefs are expected to begin wasting away leaving less habitat for commercial and recreationally important fish species. Florida Keys' reefs have an estimated asset value of $7.6 billion."



All out assault. Acid and brute heat.

NativeSun came up with a local explanation, that is falsiable. There will be reefs far away from concentrated pollution off continents that may suffer the same dissolving.
To add something to the subject of the blog entry:
Even a little air pollution may have long-term health effects on developing fetus
Science Daily, April 27, 2016, Source: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Summary: Even small amounts of air pollution appear to raise the risk of a condition in pregnant women linked to premature births and lifelong neurological and respiratory disorders in their children, new research suggests. ...

"Twenty years ago, we showed that high levels of air pollution led to poor pregnancy outcomes, including premature births. Now we are showing that even small amounts of air pollution appear to have biological effects at the cellular level in pregnant women," says the study's senior author, Xiaobin Wang, MD, ScD, MPH, the Zanvyl Krieger Professor and Director of the Center on the Early Life Origins of Disease at Bloomberg School.
Says the study's lead author Rebecca Massa Nachman, PhD, a postdoctoral fellow in Department of Environmental Health Sciences at the Bloomberg School: "This study raises the concern that even current standards for air pollution may not be strict enough to protect the fetus, which may be particularly sensitive to environmental factors. We found biological effects in women exposed to air pollution levels below the EPA standard." ...
Quoting 199. NativeSun:

It's not so much ocean acidification as pollution from all the development and run off of polluted water from the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay, which spreads East into the Florida Keys.
While I'm certain your fishing and diving experiences gave you awesome powers of deduction and keen insight into Just How Things Work, I hope you won't be offended that most of us will likely side with the results of a long-term, in-depth, peer-reviewed study of coral performed by scientists working in conjunction with a renowned university. But thanks for your opinion.
Quoting 197. JNFlori30A:

OMG just had a TS blow through and went to check out the beach and its totally covered in small HAIL! ..wait.. oh.. nevermind :)
img
If you are joking about what happened up north then I suggest you see the pictures.
I've dived from Galveston to Okinawa as a NAUI certified diver since 76'.

The warming and runnoff combine for Dead Zone's within the Atlantic Basin areas.

Here off the Louisiana coast the Low oxygen level area's can be void of all life in the shallows nearer the wetland areas.

Image by NOAA


ENVIRONMENT
Environmentalists Sue EPA Over Dead Zone in Gulf of Mexico
The size of Connecticut and Rhode Island combined, the Gulf's dead zone is now the second largest in the world.
By Dahr Jamail / Truthout August 18, 2015


Quoting 178. Patrap:

Washington D.C. Area Pummeled By Hail as Big as Baseballs

Sean Breslin
Published: May 3, 2016


While hail as big as baseballs crashed onto homes and cars Monday evening, residents across the Washington D.C. metro area echoed the same sentiment on social media: "I've never seen hail this big before."

Baseball-sized hail was reported in the Maryland towns of Rockville and St. Charles, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, and much of the area surrounding D.C. received hail in smaller sizes as the storms rolled through Monday night. There were few preliminary reports of hail damage.

There have been only eight reports of hail larger than baseballs in the state of Maryland since 1950, most recently hail up to four inches in diameter on June 23, 2015, according to NOAA records, said weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman. There have been only 18 reports of hail baseball-sized or larger (2.75 inches in diameter) in the state of Maryland since 1950, he added.
Experts say they'd be surprised to see the D.C. metro escape this storm without some damage, especially in the areas hit by baseball-sized hail.

"These large hailstones require intense thunderstorm updrafts, on the order of 80 mph, to support their growth. The high-end instability needed for such updrafts are more common in the Plains states than mid-Atlantic states," Erdman said. "In general, baseball-sized hail is sufficient to smash vehicle windshields. If driven by strong thunderstorm winds, they are capable of much more damage, including to siding of homes, roofs, and smashing home windows."

The storms also brought strong winds and heavy rain that were responsible for flooding and damage in the mid-Atlantic. WTOP.com reported that at least 3,000 customers lost power Monday night in the D.C. area, and some properties were damaged by falling trees. Officials did not report any injuries from the wind damage, the report added, but Fox5DC.com said the heavy rain led to several water rescues in Maryland's Montgomery County.

More photos and videos of the hailstorm can be seen below.


As I posted earlier I did not get large hail but I did get a huge volume of hail, enough to cover the ground with pea to marble size ice balls and near the house it piled up to about six inches deep. These piles were still around this morning after a +60f humid night.

Quoting 176. JoeBarnickel:


It's either hurricanes or global warming.  Unless there is a major weather disaster no one on this site is happy.  They can't say "see I told you so".  


I'm happy with no hurricanes and gentle unremarkable weather everywhere even if blog traffic is reduced or nil
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
extreme east central Georgia
central North Carolina
central and northeast South Carolina
coastal waters

* effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

Summary... scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon from east of the Blue Ridge into central North
Carolina... as well as southward into central South Carolina. The
storm environment will gradually become more favorable for
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts... along with some cell mergers and line segment development
later this afternoon and evening as storms spread eastward.
Quoting 205. Neapolitan:

While I'm certain your fishing and diving experiences gave you awesome powers of deduction and keen insight into Just How Things Work, I hope you won't be offended that most of us will likely side with the results of a long-term, in-depth, peer-reviewed study of coral performed by scientists working in conjunction with a renowned university. But thanks for your opinion.


The pollution in the Keys has played an important role in killing the reefs. Even without Macro Scale events, the reefs in the Keys would be very sick.

Cheers
Qazulight
The "cold" front is expected to be fairly active with precipitation as it makes its way down the state tomorrow.
Quoting 211. Qazulight:



The pollution in the Keys has played an important role in killing the reefs. Even without Macro Scale events, the reefs in the Keys would be very sick.

Cheers
Qazulight
Certainly it has. And no one is, of course, disputing that fact. What *is* being disputed are the words of a layperson dismissing the results of a long-term peer-reviewed simply study because those results contradict both his ideology and memories of days spent fishing.

Cheers.
Quoting 214. Neapolitan:

Certainly it has. And no one is, of course, disputing that fact. What *is* being disputed are the words of a layperson dismissing the results of a long-term peer-reviewed simply study because those results contradict both his ideology and memories of days spent fishing.

Cheers.


Maybe this to the point article will make it easier for them to understand:

Link

"The northern part of the Florida Keys reef has lost about 12 pounds per square yard of limestone over the past six years, according to the study published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Over the length of the reef, that's more than 6 million tons. The water eats away at the nooks and crannies of the limestone foundation, making them more porous and weaker, Langdon said."
Well we could go for some nice stories about ordinary weather. Here in Cape Town we have 22 dec C autumn weather, hardly any wind, just lovely.
Problem is that is not what most people visit the tropical weather updates for, no?
And the reality is that it is not just climate that is depressing, its a huge range of anthropogenic factors - pollution, food production problems, water shortages...
Trick is to ask: Glass half full, or half empty?

Quoting 167. SLU:



It's been very "depressing" for at least three years now with little hurricane activity to keep the discussions on the right track ....
as it stands now se winds are unseasonably strong.....and you almost cant go outside as its too hot with no cloud cover....we are all stuck inside our businesses or homes or cars with the greenhouse gas churning ac's cranked. Not much we can do about it....here electric cars are way too expensive with no incentives to spend the extra money and our power generation is diesel...just dont see a way out of this unless something dramatic happens globally like I have said in the past.
Quoting 213. Gearsts:


218. OKsky
Here is something not depressing! :D
The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months
I see the interest on Dr. Rood's Climate Change blog is just about dead. Averaging a whopping 8 comments per day. Wonder why that is?
Quoting 219. luvtogolf:



Not pleased with any of the candidates on either side. At some point the best of the worst will win (I don't want Hilary). What bothers me is people who decide on a candidate based on just one topic (GW). We hate Republicans because they have their head in the sand about GW and people will die because of our actions (or lack of actions) and yet the other party supports killing innocent babies and yet there is nothing wrong with that. Pretty twisted I'd say.


With abortion, I am pretty much on the fence. Global warming, I think enough of a scientific consensus exists to prove that global warming/climate change IS a fairly dire risk but it is not a sole risk, not THE sole burden on society (be it short-term or long-term). I don't let science dictate my politics, and I do feel as though unregulated mass illegal immigration can also be a menace in the long run, judging by observations on an anecdotal AND statistical level. I am rather politically ambiguous, ranging from bleeding-heart liberal progressive to right-wing libertarian/anarchist. Science, as I have stressed before, should not be politicized for fear of alienating and downplaying the interests of certain individuals who are thoroughly interested in the science itself but not the political aspect of it.
222. VR46L
Quoting 220. luvtogolf:

I see the interest on Dr. Rood's Climate Change blog is just about dead. Averaging a whopping 8 comments per day. Wonder why that is?


It might have something to do with the amount of bans/ comments removed there .... I haven't set foot in there for two years, since someone removed my comment, answering a question on how my (now deceased) dad was doing ... I never got over that ...
Quoting 220. luvtogolf:

I see the interest on Dr. Rood's Climate Change blog is just about dead. Averaging a whopping 8 comments per day. Wonder why that is?
Not enough opposing views to argue with.Trolls are virtually pretty much banned before even stepping foot there and to be fair since the Doc's and Mr.Henson's blog is the MAIN blog its where people are going to go since there are more people to interact with.
Quoting 215. ChillinInTheKeys:



Maybe this to the point article will make it easier for them to understand:

Link

"The northern part of the Florida Keys reef has lost about 12 pounds per square yard of limestone over the past six years, according to the study published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Over the length of the reef, that's more than 6 million tons. The water eats away at the nooks and crannies of the limestone foundation, making them more porous and weaker, Langdon said."


So what you are saying is that the reef has been dead for a long time, and now the bones are being eaten away by the more acidic ocean. I can see that.

I am beginning to think that living a long time is not such a great idea. :(

Qazulight
Quoting 219. luvtogolf:



Not pleased with any of the candidates on either side. At some point the best of the worst will win (I don't want Hilary). What bothers me is people who decide on a candidate based on just one topic (GW). We hate Republicans because they have their head in the sand about GW and people will die because of our actions (or lack of actions) and yet the other party supports killing innocent babies and yet there is nothing wrong with that. Pretty twisted I'd say.


I am not a respecter of persons. I dislike 'em all. I think Hillary would be best because Trump has already destroyed the Republican party and a win by Hillary would destroy the Democratic party and leave a clean slate for the next election. (Clean like the fish cleaning board, with guts and slime on it.)

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 215. ChillinInTheKeys:



Maybe this to the point article will make it easier for them to understand:

Link

"The northern part of the Florida Keys reef has lost about 12 pounds per square yard of limestone over the past six years, according to the study published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Over the length of the reef, that's more than 6 million tons. The water eats away at the nooks and crannies of the limestone foundation, making them more porous and weaker, Langdon said."
The loss of base rock is a natural cause as the oceans have a PH of 8.2 or so, which is slightly acidic. The number one cause of reef loss in South Florida and the Keys is pollution, and 3 or so million people living in Miami Dade County, and the Keys, doesn't help either.
Quoting 226. NativeSun:

The loss of base rock is a natural cause as the oceans have a PH of 8.2 or so, which is slightly acidic. The number one cause of reef loss in South Florida and the Keys is pollution, and 3 or so million people living in Miami Dade County, and the Keys, doesn't help either.


8.2 ph is alkaline
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:
If you are joking about what happened up north then I suggest you see the pictures.
I've been in one bad hail storm. It happened in the middle of the night. I woke up and it was so loud on the roof that we feared the worst and took shelter and fortunately it did not last long.

Looking outside the ground was covered like snow by pea sized hail or a bit larger. By the pedantic regulations it did not qualify as a severe storm since the hail was less, well less, than 1 inch in diameter. Every roof in the subdivision had to be replaced.
Quoting 219. luvtogolf:



Not pleased with any of the candidates on either side. At some point the best of the worst will win (I don't want Hilary). What bothers me is people who decide on a candidate based on just one topic (GW). We hate Republicans because they have their head in the sand about GW and people will die because of our actions (or lack of actions) and yet the other party supports killing innocent babies and yet there is nothing wrong with that. Pretty twisted I'd say.

It's not twisted. It's not true. You simply disagree with the other's position on an issue, and so, mischaracterize to score rhetorical points. Pretty cheap. Contrast that with the land of make-believe adopted by Republicans concerning AGW. The latter is ignoring facts, the former is a difference on a moral and/or privacy issue.

Quoting 220. luvtogolf:

I see the interest on Dr. Rood's Climate Change blog is just about dead. Averaging a whopping 8 comments per day. Wonder why that is?

Because it has become a blog of quality, not quantity. Instead of 50 posts per day, with 42 of them being nonsense or answers to nonsense, we now have eight topical and educational posts. I don't miss the high post count at all.
mmmm? Might be a Busted forecast this evening here on the Space Coast. Was supposed to get some storms today.
Nothing! might have to wait till tomorrow it looks like.


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-040000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
604 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.NOW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AT AROUND 25 MPH. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD MAY GENERATE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO THROUGH SUNSET. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO
50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

90 @Riverside Airport(KRAL), 84.8 @Indian Hills PWS, and 86.4 here at my Place....Rain chance on Friday...
Quoting 227. SunnyDaysFla:



8.2 ph is alkaline


Wow, ignorance sure is reassuring isn't it?
See how suddenly a river can turn into a deadly trap. Always be aware of the weather conditions not only in your area but other surrounding areas along a river.   Sorry I don't know how to post the preview of the video (Copy and paste) https://youtu.be/i9REhQEC-FE
Another great day in AK... Mid 50Fs during the day. My Son was at his high school biology class and they went out to the creek to look at the watershed. The class got visited by a large moose, which was not what they had in mind.... It kept following them around, my son was not impressed with this large, wild, animal always being within "petting" distance. The teacher split them up and got them out to safety.

In case this sounds weird, Moose are very large here and have been known to stomp people to death.
Quoting 226. NativeSun:

The loss of base rock is a natural cause as the oceans have a PH of 8.2 or so, which is slightly acidic. The number one cause of reef loss in South Florida and the Keys is pollution, and 3 or so million people living in Miami Dade County, and the Keys, doesn't help either.


Actually, the ph is now 8.1. That little change is a 25% increase in acidity.
Nice little thunderstorm in progress Lake Worth/Palm Springs Fl. area. Bumpy day could be in store tomorrow...

From the Miami NWS Disco...

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

Link
Try being a Florida State employee and say the word's climate change in a work related e-mail.

The rack is usually used on a person for that I hear.

Oy veh'

Quoting 239. Patrap:

Try being a Florida State employee and say the word's climate change in a work related e-mail.

The rack is usually used on a person for that I hear.

Oy veh'




To tick off Gov. Scott, several employees are thinking of changing their middle name to Climate Change. So every email they send out has climate change in it.
Quoting 227. SunnyDaysFla:



8.2 ph is alkaline
Sorry meant alkaline, which causes the base rock which is a soft limestone to dissolve. The issue is the PH has been rather stable, and still is. The growth of Dade County, and pollution from sewage from septic system, and runoff of the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay are the main cause of the reefs decline in this area.
Quoting 241. NativeSun:

Sorry meant alkaline, which causes the base rock which is a soft limestone to dissolve. The issue is the PH has been rather stable, and still is. The growth of Dade County, and pollution from sewage from septic system, and runoff of the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay are the main cause of the reefs decline in this area.


The growth of Florida (not just Dade) and the refusal for the state to regulate sugar plantation owners (as well as other agriculture users) is destroying the entire state, including the FRESH water aquifer. The pumping of too much fresh water out of the aquifier is causing salt water intrusion too.

Quoting 237. Naga5000:



Actually, the ph is now 8.1. That little change is a 25% increase in acidity.


But you know he was implying that 8.2 ph is acidic. Your attempt to change the narrative is downright Trumpish. Congrats.
Quoting 241. NativeSun:

Sorry meant alkaline, which causes the base rock which is a soft limestone to dissolve. The issue is the PH has been rather stable, and still is. The growth of Dade County, and pollution from sewage from septic system, and runoff of the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay are the main cause of the reefs decline in this area.


Again, no. PH has already dropped by .1 or a change of 25-30% more acidic. You can update your facts here: Link
Quoting 243. LongtimeLurker:



But you know he was implying that 8.2 ph is acidic. Your attempt to change the narrative is downright Trumpish. Congrats.


Try harder, please. This was a highly disappointing first post. I do thank you for wasting it on me, however.
Quoting 241. NativeSun:

Sorry meant alkaline, which causes the base rock which is a soft limestone to dissolve. The issue is the PH has been rather stable, and still is. The growth of Dade County, and pollution from sewage from septic system, and runoff of the sugar cane fields into Florida Bay are the main cause of the reefs decline in this area.


Limestone is alkaline.
Quoting 236. Dakster:

Another great day in AK... Mid 50Fs during the day. My Son was at his high school biology class and they went out to the creek to look at the watershed. The class got visited by a large moose, which was not what they had in mind.... It kept following them around, my son was not impressed with this large, wild, animal always being within "petting" distance. The teacher split them up and got them out to safety.

In case this sounds weird, Moose are very large here and have been known to stomp people to death.


Where are moose small?
Quoting 247. VermontStorms:



Where are moose small?


Growing up in Florida, I never thought Moose were as big (and aggressive) as they are. I send pictures of the moose up here to friends/family back in the L48 and I get comments like Did you pet it?

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, but Northern Canadian and Alaskan Moose are one of the largest ungulates on Earth.
Quoting 236. Dakster:

Moose are very large here and have been known to stomp people to death.


I keep my distance from the moose around here especially during mating season even though the Eastern Moose are smaller than your kind. If one can get the moose drunk enough your odds of escape increase.
Quoting 248. Dakster:



Growing up in Florida, I never thought Moose were as big (and aggressive) as they are. I send pictures of the moose up here to friends/family back in the L48 and I get comments like Did you pet it?

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, but Northern Canadian and Alaskan Moose are one of the largest ungulates on Earth.


Mating season is really the time to be on the look out for the most part. They become singularly focused ( if you know what I mean ) and do not care what has to be done to accomplish this task.

Have seen one destroy a Ford Ranger pick-up about 30 years ago
Right now the tropics are globally dead with nothing expected to form anytime soon. At some point in the fairly near future one of these NHem basins will get a storm... Pacific season starts in only 12 days.
Actually here they say the spring time is bad because of Mom and her baby moose... They are a tad protective of their young.

warstocs - Moose will eat fermented apples at the end of the season... kinda bizarre seeing drunk Moose...
Feel the Bern!
ALBERTA - NEW PROVINCIAL RECORD LARGEST FIRE EVACUATION: All of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is under evacuation order because of a wildfire. Some houses have reportedly already been destroyed. The population of Fort McMurray is about 61,000. Alberta has been unusually hot and dry lately.
255. JRRP7
Quoting 254. DCSwithunderscores:

ALBERTA - NEW PROVINCIAL RECORD LARGEST FIRE EVACUATION: All of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is under evacuation order because of a wildfire. Some houses have reportedly already been destroyed. The population of Fort McMurray is about 61,000. Alberta has been unusually hot and dry lately.


Worked up in that area a few years ago, beautiful country, sad to hear. Also great people.

Live coverage on Global News
Quoting 155. weathermanwannabe:

As we near the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th, interesting to note a little purple there on the TCFP page; I am going out on a limb and thinking that we have about a 75% chance of seeing a storm spin up there before the official start of their season:


Combined image of all basins




75%, really? o_O

It might happen, but I'm inclined to think it'll be closer to the end of the month. Why? Because La Nina enhances high surface pressure/dry air due to the cold water signature found at lower latitudes. Most early season East Pacific storms do not form above 10N, and more than a handful are even farther south than that. We'll probably need to wait a couple more weeks for the assistance of a tropical wave or two; that way any would-be cyclone(s) can form closer to the warm waters near the coast that are largely unaffected by La Nina.
Just had about 1 min. of pea to dime sized hail pass over us outside of Charleston, SC. Everyone have a safe rest of the night.
259. JRRP7
What's all this brouhaha about the Atlantic Nino?

Quoting 260. walkshills:

What's all this brouhaha about the Atlantic Nino?




Atlantic Nino?
Re: Koritheman

I came across a story saying that a persistent flow across the lower GOM and the Caribbean has sustained enough to increase the SSTs across the main development area. This was in conjunction, but not necessarily connected to (in a causal manner) a reading of the Gulf Stream which slowed 25% during April for some two weeks, which did cause a one foot increase in tides at the southeastern side of Florida. That was implicated in the rise of SSTs along the east coast. The effect of these was to raise the overall warmth, an effect that was referred to as the Atlantic Nino. However, this was more descriptive as a change in state instead of the actual processes seen in the development of the Pacific El Nino. (In my imperfect remembrance.)

I didn't want to link due to that being on more of a social site, but the source is usually solid from my experience. Except that I hadn't seen it mentioned - either of the particulars - here yet. Not that I relentlessly read everything posted, but I do try to keep up just for information's sake. I have noticed the subtropic jet over the lower GOM...being in Texas, that damn sure looked like my rain headed to Havana, Florida and even down toward Puerto Rico. I just wanted my rain.
Quoting 254. DCSwithunderscores:

ALBERTA - NEW PROVINCIAL RECORD LARGEST FIRE EVACUATION: All of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is under evacuation order because of a wildfire. Some houses have reportedly already been destroyed. The population of Fort McMurray is about 61,000. Alberta has been unusually hot and dry lately.


Very sad and tragic. We are doing controlled burns up here in AK to try and prevent another horrific fire season. Last year was the worst in the State's history of record keeping. Luckily large population centers here were not threatened. I can only think of 3 cities or areas that have a population of 60k or more... Anchorage, Mat-Su and Fairbanks-North Star Borough. I can't imagine trying to evacuate any of those, it would not be a good thing.

Prayers to those that live in Ft. McMurray.

Quoting 150. SuzK:

Science is not magic, nor is it superstition. Anyone off-put by science isn't interested in absolute truths. Go be *off-put* in the dumbed-down section. Have a peanut for me. Science is not an opinion.

Your comment is illogical - makes no sense given my comment 119 to which it is addressed. My comment is a personal observation of air pollution history in SoCal, further observation on the current state of U.S politics, and an opinion as to when the political situation which I described as a "da*n shame" might resolve itself.

You (and those like-minded wu members who plussed your comment) make assumptions about me that are not evident. Jumping to conclusions. You don't know me. Don't put words in my mouth. Or peanuts!

Absolute truth maybe exists in math. It does not exist in what humans call "science." Leeches.

For clarity, I include a quote of my comment below. Please note the phrase "On both sides" - to neither of which I belong.
Quoting 119. Barefootontherocks:

Had to play "The Air" from the 1968 musical, Hair.

Los Angeles may look bad on occasion these days, and I imagine heat and drought exacerbate air pollution, but the city and the area to the east called the Inland Empire is much improved over the 1970s when I remember sitting at a stoplight first in line and not being able to tell if the light was red or green because dark gray smog obscured the traffic lights.

Back in the EPA's early days, "Green" was not a political buzz word. The problem was obvious. Solutions were devised and air quality improved.

Not so clear now (npi). Add in the (maybe not so obvious to some) economic consequences that could result from some actions and the forced "believe in science or else" crowd, off-putting of course to right wing Christians, and the result is ineffective political debate, posturing, rhetoric, whatever you want to call it, leading to the current state of U.S. politics - irreconcilable bitterness. On both sides. Da*n shame. It will pass eventually. I'd give it about ten years, two and a half Presidential election cycles.
Actually stopped in to see if anyone had posted thoughts on severe early next week. Guess not.
Da*n shame.
Quoting 265. Barefootontherocks:

Actually stopped in to see if anyone had posted thoughts on severe early next week. Guess not.
Da*n shame.


Tis the time of the year for severe... weather...

I remember always getting ready to do my summer drives and just before memorial day there would be an outbreak somewhere along my path. (since I typically would drive cross country, that isn't hard to do)
Heya all.

We have an interesting pattern of weather coming through to the weekend. I'm hoping I won't be driving through anything interesting on Saturday - I might be deliverng four piglets to a farm about a hundred miles out. Also talked to our line's watermaster this morning. He's been watching the weather, and if rain looks certain by tomorrow he'll be holding off irrigation until next weekend.

Midwesterners and the south might want to see what's coming over Reno/Sparks/Carson in the next three days, and prepare for whichever way the jet stream pushes the stuff.
Quoting 257. KoritheMan:



75%, really? o_O

It might happen, but I'm inclined to think it'll be closer to the end of the month. Why? Because La Nina enhances high surface pressure/dry air due to the cold water signature found at lower latitudes. Most early season East Pacific storms do not form above 10N, and more than a handful are even farther south than that. We'll probably need to wait a couple more weeks for the assistance of a tropical wave or two; that way any would-be cyclone(s) can form closer to the warm waters near the coast that are largely unaffected by La Nina.

But there is no La Nina yet.
Quoting 232. PedleyCA:


90 @Riverside Airport(KRAL), 84.8 @Indian Hills PWS, and 86.4 here at my Place....Rain chance on Friday...


Upper level devil cutting off, off the California coast. It would be nice to get something more than a few widely scattered sprinkles out of it.
Quoting 268. BayFog:


But there is no La Nina yet.



There's still a rapidly-developing tongue of cooler than normal waters at low latitudes. It doesn't have to be official for it to be detrimental.
271. MahFL
Anyone know what's going on with the http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ website ? When I try to pull a custom sat pic I get the following error message :

Did not find any files during scandir

I grew up in Riverside, Ca. There were a lot of stage one smog days in the 1970's. It would be so bad you couldn't see the mountains behind the University of Riverside, California. They were less than 4 miles away. Whatever the number of dead is I think you would have at least 10 times that number back then. A lot of these policy decisions would be made easier if they would do the research and find out how much money when taken out of the economy causes a loss of life. Having such research would allow voters and politicians to make better decisions I'll bet all of my money that California's Proposition 71 cost some lives. It has not produced any positive health results and it well cost taxpayers 6 billion when all is said and done.
We are getting whacked big time right now. Not severe but close.
UPDATE ON FORT MCMURRAY FIRE: Entire neighborhoods have reportedly been burned. The community is under evacuation order, with the number of residents that had to be evacuated reported to be about 80,000, which exceeds the official population of 61,000.
Not much here north of Orlando, and the area of rain is moving through quickly and should clear us within the hour. I expected a lot more and later in the day than this (light rain).
Quoting 227. SunnyDaysFla:



8.2 ph is alkaline
True. Chemistry 101.



P.S. Thunder woke me up early this morning, near downtown Orlando. No rain, yet. but looking for some much needed rain today, possible severe weather.
Quoting 254. DCSwithunderscores:

ALBERTA - NEW PROVINCIAL RECORD LARGEST FIRE EVACUATION: All of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is under evacuation order because of a wildfire. Some houses have reportedly already been destroyed. The population of Fort McMurray is about 61,000. Alberta has been unusually hot and dry lately.
"Unusually hot and dry" is an understatement. Fort McMurray reached 90 yesterday, a record, and 32 above the normal high for this time of year. And that comes after several days in the mid- to upper-80s, with *those* days coming after a not-so-wintry winter. (Which I'm sure is all just a coincidence). There's a very real possibility the town could be destroyed, though evidently a lot of outside firefighting help is pouring in today, so the city may be salvaged just yet.
Quoting 256. nymore:
Worked up in that area a few years ago, beautiful country...
Well, it sure used to be. Not so much anymore:







Ah, yes. The innately beautifying nature of strip mining of tar sands...
much needed moderate rain e cen florida
Good Morning Folks. The Conus forecast for today and current look in Rainbow: most of the action is on the coasts and the high pressure in the mid-section is going to produce some blistering highs along that SW corridor today:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
venezuela's disfuntional system? a country dependent on the sale of fossil fuel. you can write a book how it became as it is now.
And SPC is still showing some severe weather potential in the day 4 and 5 time frame:

"There's a very real possibility the town could be destroyed"

Sounds like he's almost happy to say that.
Quoting 220. luvtogolf:

I see the interest on Dr. Rood's Climate Change blog is just about dead. Averaging a whopping 8 comments per day. Wonder why that is?

A little late to this party but, I thought this is a climate change blog.
headline news just said possibility of isolated tornados s. e. florida
Quoting 278. islander101010:

much needed moderate rain e cen florida
This is pre-frontal, so hopefully more on the way this afternoon, especially if we get the sun to pop out later to help create an EC sea breeze.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...
...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE AND ASCD JET MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PRESENCE
OF AFTERNOON SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
BLINDING RAIN.

A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECEDES AN APPROACHING LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT...POISED TO QUICKLY CROSS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE PCPN WL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH PSG OF THE COLD
FRONT AND GRADUAL CLEARING WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE U50S TO
AROUND 60 BY DAYBREAK THU.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS.
[...]
Quoting 283. luvtogolf:

"There's a very real possibility the town could be destroyed"

Sounds like he's almost happy to say that.


That's certainly insulting and quite nasty to suggest he would wish for death and destruction.
Yep, it is validated. Beautiful weather here in Anchorage.
Here is the relative position of the Conus jet today with the Pacific Jet flowing across the Gulf and Florida; explains why some of the t-storms across Florida are speeding across the State with strong gusts:



Southeast sector loop
This essentially the same type of El Nino zonal jet flow that can cause a tornado outbreak in Florida in the Spring if this front was embedded along with a strong and deep Gulf low with a low trajectory across the State; thankfully this is a regular frontal passage not accompanied by such a low:



Prayers go out to my Albertan bretheren up in Fort McMurray. And save the "tar sands" rhetoric for another time...these people are just trying to make a living in this GHG-infested world. Is there the same standard for West Virginia coal mining towns as well? Coal is doing a lot more damage to the planet than the oilsands.
Quoting 271. MahFL:

Anyone know what's going on with the http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ website ? When I try to pull a custom sat pic I get the following error message :

Did not find any files during scandir




Had the same problem yesterday but today after I cleared browsing data (Chrome), powered off and restarted the loops work again.
295. elioe
It would be incredible to see a whole city of tens of thousands of people to get destroyed by fire, in the developed world, in the 21st century, during peacetime. However, looking from Google Earth, it seems like a catastrophe that has just waited to happen. The city looks like it's completely surrounded by dense vegetation, interrupted by only narrow rivers. No visual sign of gaps made by commercial forestry, agriculture, or lakes. Even if the fire can be contained before destroying everything, I wonder if they'll let the land use to remain similar afterwards. Climate there seems to be at least marginally suitable for cultivation of rye, potatoes and some berries.
Quoting 293. slavicthunder:

Prayers go out to my Albertan bretheren up in Fort McMurray. And save the "tar sands" rhetoric for another time...these people are just trying to make a living in this GHG-infested world. Is there the same standard for West Virginia coal mining towns as well? Coal is doing a lot more damage to the planet than the oilsands.


These people? Ah yes, the poor mom and pop energy conglomerates just trying to eek out a living working the land. Let's not say anything about the destruction of the land to extract that oil and the twofold destruction of the planet by burning it. Just let us know when it's okay to discuss the issue.
Quoting 298. slavicthunder:

Liberal p***** would rather buy their oil from the middle east. Idiots.


71% of tar sands are foreign owned "The research by Forest EthicsAdvocacy was based on an analysis of shareholder information in January 2012 from Bloomberg Professional of more than a dozen companies, including nine with headquarters in Canada, and six with their head offices in other countries. It found 71% of the ownership of oilsands production was foreign, while the foreign-based companies controlled 24.2% of the sector’s production."Link

It does help to know what you are talking about. Shrug.
Aww, someone needs a hug.
Just flag and ignore people, flag and ignore.
Quoting 302. CybrTeddy:

Just flag and ignore people, flag and ignore.


I'm plussing those. I love when people out themselves. :)
Another ringing endorsement for nuclear power produced hydrogen for fuel cells with no CO2 emissions and zero pollutants. Annual high level nuclear waste production is measured in cubic meters.

"Over the past four decades, the entire industry has produced 74,258 metric tons of used nuclear fuel. If used fuel assemblies were stacked end-to-end and side-by-side, this would cover a football field about eight yards deep"

http://www.nei.org/Knowledge-Center/Nuclear-Stati stics/On-Site-Storage-of-Nuclear-Waste
Looks like somebody is probably going to get banned with their posts deleted this morning.

As to Fort McMurray, it was probably only a matter of time until one of those cities/towns in the Edmonton area went up in flames. As hot and dry as summers have become as of late and the lack of the snow in the winter was just a disaster waiting to happen. Of course the fires that happened recently in Indonesia and the bush fires in Australia make this fire look small by comparison.
Quoting 291. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the relative position of the Conus jet today with the Pacific Jet flowing across the Gulf and Florida; explains why some of the t-storms across Florida are speeding across the State with strong gusts:



Southeast sector loop
Some nice much-needed training rains, sunshine unlikely today in central FL.
My biggest fear this spring is a repeat of the terrible fire season that occurred after the last great El Nino. The "Summer of Smoke" in 1998, with no rainy season.
Quoting 307. slavicthunder:

The United States imported 3,210,000 bbl of crude oil per day from OPEC in February of 2016 according the EIA. Not tar sands oil mind you...just state-sponsored terrorist oil. That's the kind of oil that liberals love...as they gas up their Priuses to head off to the next pipeline rally. The same liberals who graduate with a "degree" from some liberal arts college and call themselves "educated" and "informed". Waving their little Bernie Sanders plackards...laugh out loud.


Keep going, this is classic.
Quoting 239. Patrap:

Try being a Florida State employee and say the word's climate change in a work related e-mail.

The rack is usually used on a person for that I hear.

Oy veh'




I have said before that the appropriate substitution for "climate change" is

"That which must not be named"


There Mr Scott.. Happy??
Quoting 293. slavicthunder:

Prayers go out to my Albertan bretheren up in Fort McMurray. And save the "tar sands" rhetoric for another time...these people are just trying to make a living in this GHG-infested world. Is there the same standard for West Virginia coal mining towns as well? Coal is doing a lot more damage to the planet than the oilsands.

This is the time tar sands retoric is approriate, you mean. Since it is part of the problem (97% of all oil is just burnt).
There is no better time.

You send the doctor away exactly when you need him - and pray.
Of scientific interest; we noted the start of a drilling mission into the meteor impact crater near the Yucatan that caused the dinosaur extinction a few weeks ago and they have hit "pay dirt"; another score for the science of earth core drilling that confirms past Earth events:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05 /scie ntists-hit-pay-dirt-drilling-dinosaur-killing-impa ct-

The team of scientists living on board the drilling platform is now investigating the fractures and veins of minerals that precipitated out of hot solutions in the wake of the impact. Some of the minerals they've found suggest that, initially at least, the fluid-filled cracks were way too hot for life. But they are hoping to find signs of ancient and modern DNA. As hellish as the impact was, the team suspects that the buried peak ring itself may have been an early place for life to return, because of the nutrients in the hot fluid-filled fractures.

As of 1 May, the team has reached a depth of 700 meters. It is funded to drill through the first week of June, and hopes to go as deep as 1500 meters. As the researchers move deeper into the harder granites of the peak ring, they will core more slowly, obtaining a 3-meter core about every 2 hours. They will look for evidence that the peak ring rocks are flipped out of order, with deeper rocks lying on top of rocks that originally sat more shallowly and contain minerals with higher levels of shocking. This would confirm one of the main models for peak ring formation.

The drilling effort began at the beginning of April and is sponsored by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP). To avoid choppy ocean waters, the scientists are using a special vessel called a lift boat that has jacked itself up off the sea floor on three pylons. Morgan, who just arrived on the drilling platform over the weekend, says the mission is the culmination of years of effort that began with her first proposal to IODP in 1998. I had this dream we would drill this impact crater many years ago, she says. To see this immense structure and all the people here, its been really amazing.

Quoting 311. slavicthunder:



It beats the same effluvium that you keep parroting on a daily basis. Just calling out the hypocrites.


Your facts are misleading, as is common for your biased position. Also, us liberals prefer you leave the oil in the ground. And if we must have oil, we at least want to know the worker's name. Those 3.3 million barrels of oil from OPEC per day, is only 1/3 of imports, and imports only account for slightly less than half of U.S. oil consumption for Feb. (49.9% as a percent of total domestic deliveries). Again, contextless facts coupled with bias is always a bad combination.
Quoting 312. slavicthunder:



I will do just that. And you keep dragging those knuckles on the ground, son.

See you next wildfire. Or not.
Quoting 316. slavicthunder:



You have no idea how to think or how to argue. I'm done and dusted with you.

This blog needs a tropical cyclone...at least the banter is interesting and the hypocrites take a back seat.


Well maybe I should insult others and name call? Facts don't seem to work on you. Arguing is certainly more than yelling "Liberal" loudly while slamming your fist on the table and spitting out half truths and contexless nonsense.
Quoting 316. slavicthunder:



You have no idea how to think or how to argue. I'm done and dusted with you.

This blog needs a tropical cyclone...at least the banter is interesting and the hypocrites take a back seat.

That remark can only have come from a look in a mirror.
You have some sort of oil addiction or oil religion and you simply cannot stand seeing some facts or rationality about it.
So instead of verifying Naga5000's numbers there, you can but bawl a bit.
why would anyone want to leave the oil in the ground? makes no sense
Quoting 324. Tampa969mlb:

why would anyone want to leave the oil in the ground? makes no sense

Why burn the stuff?
When the mods catch up and the back and forth gets deleted, it will certainly confuse those later today who will note there is a huge gap in the comment string. Has happened before, usually the follow on posts for an hour or two are people who didn't get banned wondering what happened.

Today is rather vitriolic, with our current troll admitting that they are just here for the sake of being a complete twit. Usually it is thinly veiled, but today is basically "I'm a jerk and I don't care, so there". Doesn't get any more clear cut than that.
Quoting 323. weathermanwannabe:

Mods?


329. elioe
Quoting 324. Tampa969mlb:

why would anyone want to leave the oil in the ground? makes no sense


Many people, many companies and many political entities wish to have the oil in the ground. As long as the oil is not in their ground. If it's in their ground, they want to make a profit of it. Simple human nature.

For those that want to reduce emissions considerably, they don't seem to think about the matter in this way. They should try to find a way to compensate the losses due to unused fossil fuels, rather than continuously morally bashing "evil energy conglomerates" and the "evil workers" who dare to earn their living by working in these companies. It's futile to comdemn people for acting according to human nature.
and that would probably explain why we are so dry here in the western caribbean......unseasonably strong SE winds and dry air.....I walked out of my place at 8 am and it felt like a dry sauna already.
Its setting up for a prolonged drought and that is kinda depressing....

Quoting 306. guygee:

Some nice much-needed training rains, sunshine unlikely today in central FL.
My biggest fear this spring is a repeat of the terrible fire season that occurred after the last great El Nino. The "Summer of Smoke" in 1998, with no rainy season.
need to burn the oil to produce the electric to charge my tesla....lol
Quoting 327. tlawson48:

When the mods catch up and the back and forth gets deleted, it will certainly confuse those later today who will note there is a huge gap in the comment string. Has happened before, usually the follow on posts for an hour or two are people who didn't get banned wondering what happened.

Today is rather vitriolic, with our current troll admitting that they are just here for the sake of being a complete twit. Usually it is thinly veiled, but today is basically "I'm a jerk and I don't care, so there". Doesn't get any more clear cut than that.


"Troll", "twit". Ad hominem attacks from yet another individual with his shorts in a bunch. Get a grip. :)

You can't be a friend of Planet Earth and support OPEC imports. You also can't be a true champion of the environment by cherry-picking the issues that are convenient to you or happen to be newsworthy and ignoring the full breadth of the situation.

Some folks can be so immature.
there is talk of a late season cold front moving into our area......a cold front in May?.....with that weird jet going on....it seems we are still entrenched in a strong El nino setup....
Where are the mods this morning? The first and only ban I ever received was for calling someone who was virulently and personally attacking another individual a troll! Yet, this individual gets to continue his bullying? He (or she) gets to curse out and insult other posters, without consequence? And all while attempting to advance his/her own misguided agenda? Why? And whether or not one agrees or disagrees with a poster's opinion, that one DOES NOT have the right to be as abusive as this individual has proven him or herself to be! Such a shame that civil, intellectual discourse no longer exists in our society!

86.9here yesterday, normal is 79/54(KRAL), The rain chance is still there, and seems to be stronger than before, I'll take it...
I laughed so hard at the "comeback" to my last post, I peed myself. Now I need new shorts....... :)
Quoting 330. 19N81W:

and that would probably explain why we are so dry here in the western caribbean......unseasonably strong SE winds and dry air.....I walked out of my place at 8 am and it felt like a dry sauna already.
Its setting up for a prolonged drought and that is kinda depressing....


Late winter/early spring 1998 great fires started in the Yucatan, we could see the smoke in Florida. It seemed to help set-up an inversion, then FL started burning too.
338. OKsky
I blame a total lack of hedgehogs for todays outburst of crazytown.

Im looking forward to interesting weather this weekend, I just hope it doesn't disrupt my boardgame night too much.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 326. cRRKampen:


Why burn the stuff?


So when you live in Canada and its -30 at night you can heat your home.
rarely got to that in Calgary this winter....hopefully a return to normal patterns next year

Quoting 341. VAbeachhurricanes:



So when you live in Canada and its -30 at night you can heat your home.
something different is going on....but Yucatan not burning anymore or is it?
Quoting 337. guygee:

Late winter/early spring 1998 great fires started in the Yucatan, we could see the smoke in Florida. It seemed to help set-up an inversion, then FL started burning too.
Quoting 343. 19N81W:

something different is going on....but Yucatan not burning anymore or is it?

There was a significant fire season in the Yucatan in 1998:
http://articles.latimes.com/1998/jun/11/news/mn-5 8848
Quoting 341. VAbeachhurricanes:



So when you live in Canada and its -30 at night you can heat your home.

There are better ways. Even in Canada.
Quoting 331. Tampa969mlb:

need to burn the oil to produce the electric to charge my tesla....lol

Maybe can't be helped. But there are other ways. Shouldn't confuse needing something with being pushed with that something as in dealer/addict or Ritalin cases on markets where the pusher has a long established monopoly.
Quoting 343. 19N81W:

something different is going on....but Yucatan not burning anymore or is it?



I appreciate all types of interesting weather, but summer of 1998 is something I never want to see a repeat of. It made living here miserable.
Quoting 306. guygee:

Some nice much-needed training rains, sunshine unlikely today in central FL.
My biggest fear this spring is a repeat of the terrible fire season that occurred after the last great El Nino. The "Summer of Smoke" in 1998, with no rainy season.

Not much rain at all AGAIN here in Sanford. Just 0.25" for this event.
Quoting 275. HurrMichaelOrl:

Not much here north of Orlando, and the area of rain is moving through quickly and should clear us within the hour. I expected a lot more and later in the day than this (light rain).

Yep, heavy rain north and south of Orlando but in the dry slot/light rain here in Sanford. Only 0.25" . Pathetic