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The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:34 PM GMT on July 03, 2012

Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday's incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that "this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country." The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country's 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dry
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 - 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the "Wunderground U.S. Records" button to see them.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I'll be back Thursday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Sheep Mountain Ablaze!
Sheep Mountain Ablaze!
The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...
Derecho Damage
Derecho Damage
A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)
Derecho in Catlett
Derecho in Catlett
Ground strike reflected off car
Mink Creek Fire
Mink Creek Fire
Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.

Heat Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Tribucanes:
Daughter just saw her first fireworks tonight, she loved it! One of the only ones in the area in Central Wisconsin going on. Firefighters sprayed down the grounds every day for the last four here to make it happen. It went off without a hitch. Reverse biblical here, 40 days and 40 nights of no rain and counting.


EDIT
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Okay so here goes why I'm mad

- I'm at my date at the Fairfax Fireworks
- Its going good about to get better ;)
- Technical Difficulties in the launch pit
- "Folks, we have to cancel, technical difficulties are too much and there is a storm coming"
- Panic in the crowd
- Have to walk my date to her car and then run to mine, lost my hat in the crowd
- Rolled my ankle walking down the hill
- Got to car... Almost got hit by amateur fireworks
- Got home... Power flicker and now wind gusts
- Night = Ruined
- And all because of storms
Hope the next one is a big and wonderful date.
Keeper, I missed the edited part.......sure it was good. :)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Tropics absolutely suck right now, who's down to go on strike?




Might wanna get used to it. The way things are panning out the main development region could be shut down for most of the season. Strong high continues to pull plenty of dry air from northern Africa and placing in that region. Only a matter of time before strong upper level winds increase futher as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino. Close to home will be the place to watch this season but for now the tropics are closed for business for a while.
WAHOOO!!!!!!!!! 6 more hours and i get to go home. Get off of this dang drilling rig for a couple weeks.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, I missed the edited part.......sure it was good. :)
hang on i will sent it again
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
WAHOOO!!!!!!!!! 6 more hours and i get to go home. Get off of this dang drilling rig for a couple weeks.
okay i don't know y that posted twice
1009. Patrap
Thunderstorms, Tree downed, Ribs were Fab, Puppies were fun, Fireworks awesome.


Twas a fine Holiday break fo sho.





Nice civility here seems.

TWC thing was a bad dream, Im glad it wasnt true.

Phew.....

875 Tazmanian: You're going to end up banned for using foul language.

And you are gonna end up banned for quoting the word.
If it shouldn't have been said, it should not be quoted.
edited below (an incomplete double post)
Patrap, glad to hear it was a dry success.
alright i tried to fix it but i screwed it up even worse. Anyway I'm excited, I get to go home soon.
tribucanes here is what i posted it will stay for 2 mins
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
tribucanes here is what i posted it will stay for 2 mins


I seen it for like 30 seconds. Moses did it again
A record high of 102F was set at Detroit yesterday which beat the old record of 98F by 4 degrees. This is really hot for Michigan. Hot weather is expected to continue with excessive heat warnings and watches until Friday evening. I had 100 degree heat, severe storms, an awesome fireworks show, and celebrated my dad's birthday which was yesterday(4th) so I had an excellent 4th.
Keeper, like my teachers always told me, "Your too darn slow kid!" Missed it again. All good Keeper, I'm trying to do ten things at once here. Hope ya'll had a really good fourth!
Quoting hurricane23:


Might wanna get used to it. The way things are panning out the main development region could be shut down for most of the season. Strong high continues to pull plenty of dry air from northern Africa and placing in that region. Only a matter of time before strong upper level winds increase futher as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino. Close to home will be the place to watch this season but for now the tropics are closed for business for a while.




nice home grown
Ya, Keeper you jump into that monster, it'll get you real high.
I used to love some nice home grown....... =)
Keeper who in the world minuses you all the frickn time? I always have to open your comments.
Breese get his contract yet? Watched him at Purdue. Wisconsin vs. Purdue were awesome classics. Ron Dayne vs. Breese some of the best football I ever watched.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper who in the world minuses you all the frickn time? I always have to open your comments.
some one that don't like me i guess or maybe just jealous it don't matter
Quoting Tribucanes:
Breese get his contract yet? Watched him at Purdue. Wisconsin vs. Purdue were awesome classics. Ron Dayne vs. Breese some of the best football I ever watched.


Yeah was some good games. Haven't heard any on the contract. He did say that he would sign the 1 yr franchise deal though if they hadn't got the long term deal done. I think they are like 1 million apart on the 5 yr deal.
Nope doesn't matter a bit, always one click away from the Keeper wisdom. Just seems silly and haterish.
Really more of a NCAA football fan though. I like watching the NFL but I love some college sports.
Thanks Himacane for the update.
ya welcome. Thank God Taz isn't on right now, I'd be getting the 3rd and 5th degree for being off topic.
Darned right it don' matter, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. You provide the BEST coverage of relevant weather maps & charts, as well as for other geophysical phenomena. And always have.


more heat this time for the west
nothing for the Atlantic.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 050532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
WAHOOO!!!!!!!!! 6 more hours and i get to go home. Get off of this dang drilling rig for a couple weeks.


Going looking for mermaids??
No change in the epac.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 4 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR-E...LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I used to love some nice home grown....... =)


Still do!

Homegrown's all right with me.
Homegrown is the way it should be.
Homegrown is a good thing.
Plant that bell and let it ring.

The sun comes up in the morning,
Shines that light around.

One day, without no warning,
Things start jumping up from the ground.

Well, homegrown's all right with me.
Homegrown is the way it should be.
Homegrown is a good thing.
Plant that bell and let it ring.


Neil Young 1976

Convection firing over the coc.
Pictures from severe storms yesterday with hail and mammatus. I even got hit in the head with a quarter sized piece!
Severe storms tracking through central Michigan could impact the metro Detroit area in a few hours.Link
1040. j2008
I just thought I would check in and let you all know that the monsoon was alive and well today. Don't get jelious but we recieved a record .77 at the airport and 1.15 in at my house and a funnel cloud with a hight temp of 86. Most rediculous day ever. Sorry guys I think that I stole your weather and gave you our weather. Be back tomorrow.
Quoting hurricane23:


Might wanna get used to it. The way things are panning out the main development region could be shut down for most of the season. Strong high continues to pull plenty of dry air from northern Africa and placing in that region. Only a matter of time before strong upper level winds increase futher as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino. Close to home will be the place to watch this season but for now the tropics are closed for business for a while.
The first half of July is usually a pretty slow period most years, for the reasons you gave. Most seasons will bring increased moisture into the Caribbean and SW ATL during June, but July 1 - 20 are usually quiet days. So if u have something else to do besides watching the tropics, that's a good time to do it... lol

It's not impossible for something to spin up, but looking at the size / orientation of that high, anything that comes along will be scudding along, which also would reduce opportunities for organization and therefore cyclogenesis.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper who in the world minuses you all the frickn time? I always have to open your comments.
It's a sign of his misspent youth.... lol

but seriously...

Set ur filter to [Show Bad]. That keeps the worst of the garbage off ur screen but allows KOTG to always be visible...

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Going looking for mermaids??


Yep and Bud Light. Those know-it-all's at NOAA don't know everything. I still believe in the lady fishes.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Still do!

Homegrown's all right with me.
Homegrown is the way it should be.
Homegrown is a good thing.
Plant that bell and let it ring.

The sun comes up in the morning,
Shines that light around.

One day, without no warning,
Things start jumping up from the ground.

Well, homegrown's all right with me.
Homegrown is the way it should be.
Homegrown is a good thing.
Plant that bell and let it ring.


Neil Young 1976



Yeah I had to quit. I'm allergic to it, it makes me high and hungry lol.
Derived from the 5July6amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionFourEast:
13.4n108.3w has been re-evaluated&altered*
13.5n108.3w-13.8n109.4w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from *11.7mph(18.8km/h) WNWest to 12.8mph(20.7km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1005millibars

For those who like to visually track TD.4E's path...
CSL is CaboSanLucas :: The unlabeled unconnected dot is IslaSocorro

ESEasternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest96E was initiated
WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest96E became TD.4E
ESEasternmost dot on the longest connected straight line-segment is TD.4E's most recent position

The longest connected straight line-segment is the straightline projection through TD.4E's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to IslaSocorro
Northernmost dot on the unconnected dumbell is the 4July12pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint
Southernmost dot on the unconnected dumbbell is 4July6pmGMT straightline projection's endpoint
NWestern half of the blob connected to the straightline projection is 5July12amGMT's*endpoint
At 5July6amGMT, TD.4E was heading toward passage 297miles(478kilometres) South of IslaSocorro in ~13hours from now

Copy&paste csl, 16.229n112.449w, 15.687n112.482w, 14.618n112.191w, zlo, lzc, zih, aca, 9.2n95.5w- 9.2n96.4w- 9.3n97.3w- 9.5n98.1w- 9.8n99.1w- 10.1n100.0w- 10.3n100.4w- 10.5n101.0w- 10.8n101.8w- 11.1n102.8w- 11.6n104.1w- 12.1n105.3w, 12.1n105.3w-12.7n106.3w, 12.7n106.3w-13.2n107.3w, 13.2n107.3w-13.5n108.3w, 13.5n108.3w-13.8n109.4w, 13.5n108.3w-14.518n112.126w, 18.694n110.97w-14.518n112.126w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison

* The previous vector and straightline projection's endpoint have been corrected on this mapping through recalculations using the most recent positions.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




nice home grown


Wasn't Floyd a... classic Cape Verde?
This is a TS for sure now, probably a moderate one at that according to T numbers...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050839
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE OR
SCATTEROMETER DATA. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT
11 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN
TURN MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THAT TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND
IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.8N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.3N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 15.5N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 15.8N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 16.3N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Now forecasted not to be a hurricane and to be a ts in 12hrs, even though it has looked like it has achieved ts intensity for awhile.
Good wet morning from Puerto Rico. It has been a few months since PR has not been thru this general rainy moment that is occuring today. The lakes went up since yesterday and no more forest fires have occured.

Now 140,000 people are without power in southeast MI and 200,000 people since tuesday have been affected by storm related power outages according to DTE Energy.
The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
AOI Near Puerto Rico
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is a TS for sure now, probably a moderate one at that according to T numbers...



amazing... this storm looks much better now.


I would not be surprised to tropical developement near the US next week. This vort energy west of Tampa on the Euro is this tropical wave below near PR.


Nogaps has it too as ncstorm posted yesterday.

1055. WxLogic
Good Morning
Either way you slice a lot of rain is on tap again for FL as a tropical wave and upper trough over the SE team up to soak the heck out of FL.


It would be funny if FL got hit a 3rd Tropical Storm. It is possible as this wave could spin up fast off the SW FL coast early next week and then push up toward the big Bend of FL as Debby did a couple of weeks ago. Shear is expected to be light early next week so we will see.



The rest of the Country is in a drought while FL isn't anymore thanks to all of this tropical weather we have seen over the last 6 weeks. Some areas of FL have seen over 30" of rain in 6 weeks. Tampa saw nearly 20" of rain just last month alone!
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE AGAIN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AS A TROPICAL WAVE...
CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND OVER PUERTO RICO...WILL START TO
INFLUENCE THE S FLA AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND MAY AT TIMES BECOME STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE
TO THE AFORE-MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE AGAIN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AS A TROPICAL WAVE...
CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND OVER PUERTO RICO...WILL START TO
INFLUENCE THE S FLA AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND MAY AT TIMES BECOME STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE
TO THE AFORE-MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteL oop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE AGAIN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AS A TROPICAL WAVE...
CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND OVER PUERTO RICO...WILL START TO
INFLUENCE THE S FLA AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND MAY AT TIMES BECOME STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE
TO THE AFORE-MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.



I was gonna post it for you but I see it finally worked on the image tab.
tws.racing.to.the.big.pond
It's going to be a very hot day across most of the Country.

Morning all. [Yawn] Need a cuppa java....

lol

Looks like that Twave will be over the Bahamas and Cuba by tomorrow sometime. Good onions.

Good Morning. While the wave near PR is firing plenty of convection, it is headed towards a band of 30 knots of sheer which is why NHC has the tropics "clear" for the next 48 hours and you can see it being sheered across the NW quadrant......Just Sayin.

Link
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING
THROUGH THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO...TO CURACAO IN THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W..........dont.mention.speed
1067. islander101010 8:13 AM EDT on July 05, 2012

That bugger is also moving along at about 20-25 knots....Way too fast for any development...... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. While the wave near PR is firing plenty of convection, it is headed towards a band of 30 knots of sheer which is why NHC has the tropics "clear" for the next 48 hours and you can see it being sheered across the NW quadrant......Just Sayin.

Link


We all agree but after 48 hours like later this weekend somewhere near S FL this may have an opportunity to spin up and it could hppen fast as shear will be very light and SST's are in the upper 80's across the FL Straits.
72 hour wind shear forecast.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


We all agree but after 48 hours like later this weekend somewhere near S FL this may have an opportunity to spin up and it could hppen fast as shear will be very light and SST's are in the upper 80's across the FL Straits.


I figured someone was going there after 48 looking at the lower sheer towards the Bahamas and Florida...But no model support for that scenario at the moment.... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I figured someone was going there after 48 looking at the lower sheer towards the Bahamas and Florida...But no model support for that scenario at the moment.... :)


Here's the Euro. Nothing official but notice the vort that strengthens as this comes up the eastern Gulf.



Then NE across S GA
1073. Grothar


50 - 60 mph
Morning Gro. Looks like PR is finally getting the moisture it was looking for...
Good morning all. Maybe some relief coming up for some. :)

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
230 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

VALID 12Z MON JUL 09 2012 - 12Z THU JUL 12 2012


USED THE 12Z/04 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. FOR THE PAST WEEK OF MODEL
CYCLES...THE ECENS MEAN HAS AFFORDED A BEST FIT FOR THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FOR THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. THE WEEK OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY
STABLE...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION TOWARD A
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL COOL
DOWN...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FUELING CONVECTION ALONG THE POLAR
FRONT IN REGIONS THAT HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAIN FOR SOME TIME.
WITH
THE RETROGRESSION AND BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST...THE
HIGH HEAT WILL SHIFT TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WITH THE MONSOON DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

wind shear is way too strong form any thing too get going




See Dat Shear?

heres another map then



20 knots is doable;however, with its forward motion i dont think it will happen
1080. icmoore
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It would be funny if FL got hit a 3rd Tropical Storm. It is possible as this wave could spin up fast off the SW FL coast early next week and then push up toward the big Bend of FL as Debby did a couple of weeks ago. Shear is expected to be light early next week so we will see.





I won't be laughing :)
Quoting Tazmanian:


That is a strong signature of a strong El-nino building. This could basically shut down the Cape Verde Season. As Hurricane23 said anything that forms will like be close to home.
Quoting Patrap:
Thunderstorms, Tree downed, Ribs were Fab, Puppies were fun, Fireworks awesome.


Twas a fine Holiday break fo sho.





Nice civility here seems.

TWC thing was a bad dream, Im glad it wasnt true.

Phew.....



Um,,,, What you talking about Willis?




2012/07/05 UT1200 LAT 13.4 LON 110.4 Dvorak Intensity T3.5/3.5 04E NONAME





Looks like a TUTT
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Gro. Looks like PR is finally getting the moisture it was looking for...


Good morning. Yes,all the lakes are full again,the agriculture people are happy,no more forest fires and no more 90+ temperatures for now.
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is way too strong form any thing too get going


I think anything that happens isn't even expected before next week anyway... 3 days from now @ the earliest...
Quoting weatherh98:


See Dat Shear?

heres another map then



20 knots is doable;however, with its forward motion i dont think it will happen
I think the reason a couple models are suggesting some increase in vorticity W of the Bahamas is because the wave would be slowing as it approaches the "end" of the ridge....
Daniel!!

EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1005, TS
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think anything that happens isn't even expected before next week anyway... 3 days from now @ the earliest...I think the reason a couple models are suggesting some increase in vorticity W of the Bahamas is because the wave would be slowing as it approaches the "end" of the ridge....


Yup! It looks like it is going to interact with an upper trough early next week across the SE US. As that happens shear will be non-existant. So the area around FL and the Bahamas will need to be watched for a tropical surprise.
1088. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Gro. Looks like PR is finally getting the moisture it was looking for...


They either get too much or too little.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That is a strong signature of a strong El-nino building. This could basically shut down the Cape Verde Season. As Hurricane23 said anything that forms will like be close to home.
not.good.more.landfalls
1072. StormTracker2K 8:23 AM EDT on July 05, 2012

That run eventually takes the wave near to where Debby parked off the coast of West Florida. That is what I don't like about where Debby ended up and where this wave is headed..........Trajectories headed towards Florida and the Gulf at the moment; could spell trouble in a few months if this ridging patterns keeps up.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Daniel!!

EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1005, TS


conservitive because the ADT numbers support 53 kts
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt
Quoting weatherh98:


conservitive because the ADT numbers support 53 kts
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt


maybe 50 - 60 mph?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1072. StormTracker2K 8:23 AM EDT on July 05, 2012

That run eventually takes the wave near to where Debby parked off the coast of West Florida. That is what I don't like about where Debby ended up and where this wave is headed..........Trajectories headed towards Florida and the Gulf at the moment; could spell trouble in a few months if this ridging patterns keeps up.


I agree but the only fly in the ointment is this El-Nino building and how will the shear be near the west coast of Africa come August into September.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1072. StormTracker2K 8:23 AM EDT on July 05, 2012

That run eventually takes the wave near to where Debby parked off the coast of West Florida. That is what I don't like about where Debby ended up and where this wave is headed..........Trajectories headed towards Florida and the Gulf at the moment; could spell trouble in a few months if this ridging patterns keeps up.


at least that water hasnt had a TON of time to warm up



Its still hot but it isnt more than 82 as oppossed to the LA coast

temps of about 90
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


maybe 50 - 60 mph?


more than likely AT LEAST 55 mph but those support 60 MPH.

Here is what is has been the last week or so in my area, max heat indexes have been in the area of 105-115 range for most of the time. No rain.

June 27th - 93
June 28th - 100
June 29th - 102
June 30th - 95
July 1st - 91
July 2nd - 97
July 3rd - 98
July 4th - 100
---------------
FORECAST:
July 5th - 100
July 6th - 104
July 7th - 100
July 8th - 91

El Nino is coming for sure but we do not know yet how strong and the timing aspect in terms of Atlantic season shutdown. In any event, if El Nino effects were to establish themselves during Cape Verde time, the percentages for US landfall fall dramatically, but it only takes one to slip through. Here are some of the analog stats for the El Nino watchers:

ENSO’s Impact on Regional U.S. Hurricane Activity
SHAWN R. SMITH, JUSTIN BROLLEY, JAMES J. O’BRIEN, AND CARISSA A. TARTAGLIONE
Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahasse

Bove et al. (1998) also showed a decrease (increase)
in hurricane landfall probabilities in the United States during El Niño (La Niña) events. For the period of record 1900–97, the mean number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States annually was 1.04 during El Niño years, 1.61 during neutral years, and 2.23 during La Niña years (Bove et al. 1998). For the same period, Bove et al. (1998) found the probability of two or more North Atlantic hurricanes making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline to be 28% during El Niño, 48% during the neutral phase, and 66% during La Niña.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Here is what is has been the last week or so in my area, max heat indexes have been in the area of 105-115 range for most of the time. No rain.

June 27th - 93
June 28th - 100
June 29th - 102
June 30th - 95
July 1st - 91
July 2nd - 97
July 3rd - 98
July 4th - 100
---------------
FORECAST:
July 5th - 100
July 6th - 104
July 7th - 100
July 8th - 91




Looks like youre in the middle of the death high.
Quoting weatherh98:


more than likely AT LEAST 55 mph but those support 60 MPH.



yeah. pretty much
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah. pretty much


Kinda interesting that the NHC didnt bump it up to like 45 MPH
bove1998?.times.have.changed..last.yr.2.landfalls.w ith.19.storms..easy.to.beat
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


they are in the middle of the convection. another blob is moving north into PR
Quoting islander101010:
bove1998?.times.have.changed..last.yr.2.landfalls .w ith.19.storms


this.year.2.landfalls.4.storms.
Quoting weatherh98:


this.year.2.landfalls.4.storms.
low.pressures.per.wind.velocity(ike).its.changed
Houston

LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOW MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT LARGE SCALE...CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS FORM RING OF FIRE AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AND
CAPPED REGION...EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS TO NEBRASKA TO GREAT
LAKES REGION THEN DOWN TOWARD MID ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AT TODAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
YESTERDAY WITH A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK WINDS THROUGH
STORM DEPTH SO SHOULD BE PULSE TYPE STORMS AND VERY SLOW MOVING.
COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY. YESTERDAY THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE EAST
SIDE OF HOUSTON AS SEEN IN RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAUGES FROM
HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL.

SATURDAY LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST ON SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR NAM AND GFS REFLECT
THIS WITH HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY...AND THINKING WILL HAVE MORE
LIKE 30 TO 40 PCT COVERAGE THAT DAY. THOSE HIGHER POPS TO
CONTINUE THEN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. GFS AND EC
ACTUALLY SHOW COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO CWA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF A FEW STORMS
ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD WASH OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY MEANINGFUL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


funny how the equitorial water looks below avg by the blue colors but is actually very hot
Quoting islander101010:
bove1998?.times.have.changed..last.yr.2.landfalls .w ith.19.storms


More recent paper; 2010 by Klotzbach; interesting read as to the hybrid-modoki El Nino pattern:

The number of United States landfalls and normalized damage are reduced in El Niño years as well (e.g., Pielke and Landsea 1999, Elsner and Jagger 2006, Klotzbach 2010a). The reduction in activity due to ENSO is even more significant in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic (Gray 1984a, Klotzbach 2010b). ENSO has also been shown to have its most significant impact on TCs that form in the deep tropics (Kossin et al. 2010).

Recently, different types of ENSO have been analyzed. Kim et al. (2009) argue that East Pacific warm events reduce storm activity as discussed in many previous studies, while Central Pacific (or ENSO-Modoki) warm events may enhance storm activity along the Gulf of Mexico and in Central America due to a reduction of vertical wind shear. Lee et al. (2010) claim, however, that the enhanced storm activity seen in ENSO-Modoki events was largely due to the anomalously active years of 1969 and 2004, which both had larger-than-normal Atlantic Warm Pools (AWP), defined as the area of water warmer than 28.5°C comprising the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western tropical North Atlantic. They argue that larger-than-normal AWPs are associated with reduced vertical shear, and therefore, the attribution of heightened activity due to ENSO-Modoki may be premature.


SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ732-051330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0027.120705T1256Z-120705T1330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
856 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...

* UNTIL 930 AM AST

* AT 851 AM AST...OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N...OR ABOUT 53 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA VIENTO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 1742 6634 1765 6585 1700 6540 1700 6574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 123DEG 21KT 1716 6570

$$
GV
already haing storms building over the south US

even an outflow bndry



up near colombus...
TS Daniel at 11am.

EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, M,
Quoting cyclonekid:
TS Daniel at 11pm.

EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, M,


yup. saw that. as i said earlierr though

3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt

ADT numbers are high


1114. ncstorm

Quoting weatherh98:


at least that water hasnt had a TON of time to warm up



Its still hot but it isnt more than 82 as oppossed to the LA coast

temps of about 90


The Gulf has exploded temperature wise since Debby has left the area.

June 25th.



July 3rd

Quoting ILwthrfan:


The Gulf has exploded temperature wise since Debby has left the area.

June 25th.



July 3rd



and its gotten even hotter since the third

there are some 31s and 32s celcius off the LA coast.

i can asure you they are thst hot too, went swimming out there yesterday
Quoting Grothar:


OH, YEAH, Well, one lesson I learned years ago was never argue with a leatherneck. :)


I hit a leatherneck on time in gitmo. Got the ___ whipping of my life as my CO laughed.

Lessen learned
I'm out.....Have a great day folks and remember and pray for the Farmers in the mid-West. Dr. M. alluded to a crop pending crop disaster and here is the am story on MSNBC. A real bad situation unfolding.

Fears of new Dust Bowl as heat, drought shrivel corn in Midwest


Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I'm out.....Have a great day folks and remember and pray for the Farmers in the mid-West. Dr. M. alluded to a crop pending crop disaster and here is the am story on MSNBC. A real bad situation unfolding.

Fears of new Dust Bowl as heat, drought shrivel corn in Midwest


Link


sad because the corn is fantastic this year.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yup! It looks like it is going to interact with an upper trough early next week across the SE US. As that happens shear will be non-existant. So the area around FL and the Bahamas will need to be watched for a tropical surprise.


What Was

000
FXUS62 KMFL 030740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THE
E U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS
-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
W AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


What is now

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

..A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTENDS SW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHOVING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL U.S. WESTWARD WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER
OVER THE FLA PENINSULA
. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO
-SPHERE... A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC WILL EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLA
PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP S FLA IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.
That is one big tropical wave
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
That is one big tropical wave


Euro has it slipping in the west coast of florida. it looks like it will go somewhere round florida. WATCH OUT
this wave is funny because its getting sheared so bad thatt the low is ROUGHLY south of port au prince and the rain is around PR.

you can see it on the TPW
on a better keybd sorry ive read some of herberts old books. there were lots of debatable issues back then. still are today. the library is loaded with volumns of hurricane info. this season hopefully does shut down like taz and others are saying. but sheared tw's are dangerous too "stormtops" k one for example
Here comes El Nino. CPC July update made today has the news.

Link
1126. ncstorm


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here comes El Nino. CPC July update made today has the news.

Link


Its coming faster than most of us thought
some spin there south of hispanola look for a yellow
if you check the latest sst anomalies, the 180W and 160W actually have cooled a little. we are on board with a weak el nino in september forming. right now the atmosphere is neutral and the gulf is boiling hot
Fireworks show went over with a bang last night in the city of woodstock north of me where i was watching.

It started great, and then after a minute there was a defective firework that exploded very low and set of 20-30 more fireworks that were down by their launching pads.
Couldnt really see the explosions, but it sounded bad.
Luckily only 2 people suffered minor injuries, but it pretty much ended the show..

the show did continue after a while, but a lot of people left
Quoting islander101010:
some spin there south of hispanola look for a yellow


we already had a yellow. they took it off
Quoting Grothar:


They either get too much or too little.


Anyone else sing "Lothar of the Hill People" in their head every time Grothar posts?

Anyone??
1133. Patrap
TWC thing was a bad dream, Im glad it wasnt true.

Phew.....


In da states we have this concept of "Humor", u should try it once.

It dont hurt, much.

: )
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Fireworks show went over with a bang last night in the city of woodstock north of me where i was watching.

It started great, and then after a minute there was a defective firework that exploded very low and set of 20-30 more fireworks that were down by their launching pads.
Couldnt really see the explosions, but it sounded bad.
Luckily only 2 people suffered minor injuries, but it pretty much ended the show..


morning. i got to sleep in. have practice at 5 though
No reason for any circles ATM as the wave is sitting in the jet axis.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
No reason for any circles ATM as the wave is sitting in the jet axis.



not to mention the shear inhibiting any development in the next 48-72
1137. ncstorm
Quoting weatherh98:


morning. i got to sleep in. have practice at 5 though


lucky.
So are we talking about htat wwave by PR now?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lucky.
So are we talking about htat wwave by PR now?


yea, the one that had a yellow on it yesterday
Quoting ncstorm:


looks like the monsoon trough is lifting north in the sahel.

this could decrease the SAL
nicely packed storm Daniel
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
nicely packed storm Daniel


does it have a CDO?
BOOM:

luckily not many were back there

Link
try the 43 sec video

I have a video of it on an iphone, i will try to see what i can do with it
Quoting Patrap:
TWC thing was a bad dream, Im glad it wasnt true.

Phew.....


In da states we have this concept of "Humor", u should try it once.

It dont hurt, much.

: )


Sure seems to hurt you a lot. Seeing as how you are always railing against it. At least from anyone but you, that is.
the aoi near hispaniola is being enhanced by ul divergence being caused by the tutt cell to its west,doubtful anything forms in the next 24-36hrs,maybe this weekend depending if it gets into the gom
Quoting stillwaiting:
the aoi near hispaniola is being enhanced by ul divergence being caused by the tutt cell to its west,doubtful anything forms in the next 24-36hrs,maybe this weekend depending if it gets into the gom


The TUTT is also shearing the crap out of this thing
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
No reason for any circles ATM as the wave is sitting in the jet axis.



look, even the wave has the least vorticity
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What Was

000
FXUS62 KMFL 030740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THE
E U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS
-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
W AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


What is now

000
FXUS62 KMFL 051118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

..A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTENDS SW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHOVING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL U.S. WESTWARD WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER
OVER THE FLA PENINSULA
. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO
-SPHERE... A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC WILL EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLA
PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP S FLA IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.


In another month or so, that Bermuda ridge should be weaker and further east as El Nino comes into the equation.
1149. hydrus
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
That is one big tropical wave
That wave may split or diminish once it is past Hispaniola.
1150. Patrap
EP042012 - Tropical Storm DANIEL


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Daniel Floater RGB





1151. Patrap
Rainbow Top Image



If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.
I released another tropical Atlantic update around 7:00 AM...check it out...

I considered the NW Atlantic feature a special feature when I wrote it...but its satellite appearance has gotten worse since 7 AM...so I don't think it will develop anymore...
1155. hydrus
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
El Nino is coming for sure but we do not know yet how strong and the timing aspect in terms of Atlantic season shutdown. In any event, if El Nino effects were to establish themselves during Cape Verde time, the percentages for US landfall fall dramatically, but it only takes one to slip through. Here are some of the analog stats for the El Nino watchers:

ENSO’s Impact on Regional U.S. Hurricane Activity
SHAWN R. SMITH, JUSTIN BROLLEY, JAMES J. O’BRIEN, AND CARISSA A. TARTAGLIONE
Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahasse

Bove et al. (1998) also showed a decrease (increase)
in hurricane landfall probabilities in the United States during El Niño (La Niña) events. For the period of record 1900–97, the mean number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States annually was 1.04 during El Niño years, 1.61 during neutral years, and 2.23 during La Niña years (Bove et al. 1998). For the same period, Bove et al. (1998) found the probability of two or more North Atlantic hurricanes making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline to be 28% during El Niño, 48% during the neutral phase, and 66% during La Niña.
I would bet they have tweaked these stats since 1998,,Good post.
Quoting reedzone:
If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.


What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season?


Currently DRY AIR and the Westerly Trade winds!
kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean.
1161. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


OH, YEAH, Well, one lesson I learned years ago was never argue with a leatherneck. :)
One cannot carbon date The Grothar Entity. It would be the equivalent of carbon dating a Higgs Boson, or something that was in existence before the Big Bang.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season?


Wind Shear and downward MJO Pulse.
Quoting hydrus:
One cannot carbon date The Grothar Entity. It would be the equivalent of carbon dating a Higgs Boson, or something that was in existence before the Big Bang.


watched jurassic park, saw him in one of the containment zones
Quoting weatherh98:
kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean.


should track straight toward the Yucatan IMO...i don't see a turn like that coming.
1166. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:


watched jurassic park, saw him in one of the containment zones
They were his pets, They were no canines or felines during the Jurassic..
Quoting weatherh98:
kinda threw this together figured out how to do it. but this is on the wave in the carribean.

What would cause that sharp of a turn, aside from the hopes and prayers of kids in SFL?
as long as Orlando is in the clear through next Wednesday, I'm good to go.

Debbie screwed up my vacation plans and I'm going tomorrow.
THIS HIGH is just not going to move much....


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012

PRC009-015-025-035-041-043-057-069-077-085-095-10 3-109-123-129-133-
151-051545-
ARROYO PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-GUAYAMA PR-NAGUABO PR-
JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-SALINAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-YABUCOA PR-AIBONITO PR-HUMACAO PR-
1026 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
TO SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...

AT 1020 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES SOUTH OF YABUCOA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Quoting jeffs713:

What would cause that sharp of a turn, aside from the hopes and prayers of kids in SFL?
the edge of the AB high. but i mean i leve in louisiana if you dont like that then...
1172. LargoFl
hOT AND HUMID HERE IS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THE NEXT 5 DAYS
Quoting hydrus:
They were his pets, They were no canines or felines during the Jurassic..


oh i see
Quoting reedzone:
If I read correctly last night, Adrian posted that the Atlantic Hurricane season is pretty much done.. He didn't say it like that but reading his analysis, he pretty much predicted that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close..

I strongly disagree..

Although I may agree that we may not have action for another few weeks. This Season is FAR for over.

My Forecast 13-15 named storms... We already had 4 so far, so 8-11 more is possible.


Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.
1175. hydrus
I was going to post the convective outlook for today, but too lengthy...It is interesting, and I believe there will be some rough stuff out there...SPC link..Link
1176. hydrus
Quoting LargoFl:
hOT AND HUMID HERE IS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THE NEXT 5 DAYS
Florida is back in its usual summertime pattern...For now.
This is no 45 moh tropical storm. This is at least a 65 moh tropical storm accOrding to satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS and SAB.

Quoting hydrus:
I was going to post the convective outlook for today, but to lengthy...It is interesting, and I believe there will be some rough stuff out there...SPC link..Link


TRUE RING OF FIRE around that HIGH.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is no 45 moh tropical storm. This is at least a 65 moh tropical storm accOrding to satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS and SAB.



yes its been that way for some time. i think the NHC wants to be gradual withit. Fish anyone?
Quoting hurricane23:


Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.


Reed:

I dont think it is a good idea for someone to post what someone else "said". Being mis-quoted is not in the best interest of the site or anyone on it.

JUST SAYIN'
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1182. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
Florida is back in its usual summertime pattern...For now.
YES, we could use some more rain here in Pinellas county, although to our north where the flooding still is they will suffer more if it rains hard again


Daniel looks like another one of those EPac storms that hit RI out of nowhere and get stronger than forecast.
1185. hydrus
Quoting hurricane23:


Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.
Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development.
1187. K8eCane
Quoting weatherh98:
the edge of the AB high. but i mean i leve in louisiana if you dont like that then...


Do you have a lisence to carry that red marker?
1188. LargoFl
Soon to be Emilia beggining to take shape?

Link
Quoting K8eCane:


Do you have a lisence to carry that red marker?


prolly not.
rainy day here i think the thunderstorm chance came and left now it looks like the sun is about to pop out!
1192. K8eCane
Quoting weatherh98:


prolly not.


Well since its yu I will look the other way
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Adrian. It is my belief that El-Nino effects will not be to formidable by the time hurricane season is at its peak. Saharan dust will inhibit the African Waves from development.


There is some lag BUT i still think its affects will be felt during the peak.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC007-021-025-035-041-045-061-105-129-051600-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0003.120705T1524Z-120705T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1124 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
AGUAS BUENAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
BAYAMON MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS...
CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY...
CIDRA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CIDRA...
COMERIO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COMERIO...
GUAYNABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
NARANJITO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL NOON AST

* AT 1119 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CIDRA AND AGUAS BUENAS...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 30 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WILL AFFECT THE NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES
AS MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 1809 6597 1808 6602 1810 6602 1811 6605
1809 6613 1804 6613 1805 6620 1810 6623
1814 6622 1817 6623 1819 6626 1823 6626
1825 6629 1828 6623 1829 6605
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 152DEG 56KT 1833 6617

$$

ER/GV
Quoting hurricane23:


Ah no! I said the MDR main development region looks very hostile due to saharan dust and increasing upper level winds due to el nino developing. Its real effects will be felt during peak season in August and September. Theres been some intense hurricanes that have formed during el nino years so one must still be alert.


Ok, which is why I first stated "if I read correctly".. Which was very late last night and I was dozing on and off.. Sorry.
1156 NCHurricane2009: What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season?

It's slowing down cuz 66NamedStorms in 2012 would mean that the AtlanticSeason is just a big show-off