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The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Just Set it....And FOR---GEET---IT.
I bet that would make a great infomercial.....LOL
I think this was used in the Texas Chain Saw Massacre! I'm sure i mispelled that...LOL
1503. pottery
Quoting MahFL:
Pottery, this is a standard diamond cutting saw, it can be operated via a cable or by an ROV.

The frame, the brackets, the pressure seals, the waterproofing....
this is no standard saw, man.
1504. MahFL
I am off to bed, goodnight all.
Better yet if they had taken all the bubble gum that Manager Terry ....for the RedSox chews in one game.....they could have plugged it with all his leftovers........LOL
1506. MahFL
Lol, just do a google search for
underwater cutting saws

Dozens of companies make them.
1507. pottery
Quoting pottery:

The frame, the brackets, the pressure seals, the waterproofing....
this is no standard saw, man.

And maybe you dont know. Its not a saw-blade. Its a wire, with diamond bonded to it. The pipe is 21" diameter. They need a clean cut.
Just wondering why don't they just cut the bolts off.
Then lower another top down and spot weld it.
That way the could just screw pipe on it and pump away with no more leaking....

Taco :o)
Those peeps that are in the ROV's are some skilled individuals...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Those peeps that are in the ROV's are some skilled individuals...

???
Quoting taco2me61:
Just wondering why don't they just cut the bolts off.
Then lower another top down and spot weld it.
That way the could just screw pipe on it and pump away with no more leaking....

Taco :o)



REally good question Taco.....that joint is just bolted together....my guess it is sealed tho with some appoxy that bonds metals or then wielded together.....don't know tho.
91L has carked it
Quoting weathersp:


Hey ya there SJ! Good to see you around again! I think your right, if they get it off and cant get the top hat on, then this thing is going to be 100% full on blast until they get that relief well going.
that will be a really bad mess not that it all ready isn't
thing you mean operating them, no one is inside them.
Quoting TampaSpin:



REally good question Taco.....that joint is just bolted together....my guess it is sealed tho with some appoxy that bonds metals or then welded together.....don't know tho.


Its bolted together with a rubber gasket in the middle... why not just cut the Bolts????

Oh wait I don't work for BP thats why they don't do the easy way....

Taco :o)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Those peeps that are in the ROV's are some skilled individuals...


ROV= Remotely Operated Vehicle

LOL, Control Freaks..
1517. xcool
91L 20%
1518. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:
Those peeps that are in the ROV's are some skilled individuals...

You guys have not been keeping up.
The guys running the ROV's are 5000 feet above, on ships. Guided by cameras. GPS etc.
The pressure down there is some 2000 PSI.
What you are seeing is un-tried technologies.
It's not a game between BP and the shrimps.


Quoting StormJunkie:
Ok, now I'm not an oil exec or an engineer...And I didn't stay at an HIE last night...But I was thinking earlier about Cyclonebuster and his tunnels (know y'all are loving the mention of tunnels)...

The original "domes" they put over the leaks failed because of ice crystals correct? So take some of busters tunnels, connect them to venturi valves on the domes...Suck in (or push in) some hot surface water...No more ice crystals...

Now atmo or some of you other folks much smarter than me please explain why that wouldn't work?

I don't think that warm water would be all that warm once you got it down there, no matter what you did...

But, in any case, the surface layer is shallow, so pumping water down there would require a full mile of infrastructure. Doable from a drilling rig? I dunno. Not by drill pipe...something bigger and insulated.
Quoting AussieStorm:
91L has carked it

does anyone know what i mean by "carked it"?
Quoting pottery:

You guys have not been keeping up.
The guys running the ROV's are 5000 feet above, on ships. Guided by cameras. GPS etc.
The pressure down there is some 2000 PSI.
What you are seeing is un-tried technologies.
It's not a game between BP and the shrimps.




Evening pottery, good to see ya. Any idea what the pressure is coming out of the well? Obviously a lot more than 2000 psi.

And does anyone have a picture of the cap they are going to put on the BOP?
Quoting taco2me61:


Its bolted together with a rubber gasket in the middle... why not just cut the Bolts????

Oh wait I don't work for BP thats why they don't do the easy way....

Taco :o)


Its so they can say they have one more option, LOL. I am not an deep water oil expert but I can't see why it wouldn't work.
I thought you forgot where spell check was Aussie....LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:

does anyone know what i mean by "carked it"?


He means "croaked"... which is an idiom for "it died"

Example: The young girl was sad when her goldfish croaked.
Quoting msgambler:
I thought you forgot where spell check was Aussie....LOL

but do you know what it means?
I coulda said, it's "Cactus"
LOL no Aussie
Quoting msgambler:
LOL no Aussie

it's DEAD




Could get a little stormy on them...
1530. xcool
TampaSpin OHH OHH NOO
Quoting pottery:

You guys have not been keeping up.
The guys running the ROV's are 5000 feet above, on ships. Guided by cameras. GPS etc.
The pressure down there is some 2000 PSI.
What you are seeing is un-tried technologies.
It's not a game between BP and the shrimps.





Well heck i would qualify for that .....I am really good at PS3......JUST KIDDING of course!
Thanks atmo, good points. Have a feeling it would take almost as long to develop that as it would to drill the relief well. None the less, it is a feasible concept...Maybe...

Think the bigger point is that we all know accidents happen...and it does not seem to me that enough contingency planning is done by the oil giants.
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin OHH OHH NOO

bless you... hehe
Quoting weathersp:


Its so they can say they have one more option, LOL. I am not an deep water oil expert but I can't see why it wouldn't work.


With all due respect I have done that with a main water valve before...
I work for the city and and had to replace a boken valve underwater with the same setup.
Now I was in clean water but the pressure was about 3000gpm and what we did was cut the bolts and replaced the valve while underwater and pressure....

But I do understand that this is 5000 feet deep but not much is different....and no I did not stay at a HIE either....

Taco :o)
91L went "poof".
1536. pottery
Quoting weathersp:


Its so they can say they have one more option, LOL. I am not an deep water oil expert but I can't see why it wouldn't work.

And then what ?
There is another pipe, called the drill-pipe, inside the large pipe you see there.
It is locked in place by the fact that it goes down some 18,000 feet into the ground, and also there are rams inside the equipment you see there, that have grabbed the drill-pipe.
Now, if you lift off the top of the thing, you still have to cut the drill pipe. And you cannot lift the top, because there is a bent pipe preventing that.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Could get a little stormy on them...


A little MCS never hurt anybody! LOL

Oh, MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System
pattern change coming looks like eastern Canada ne U.S. will be slightly cooler for the first two weeks of june shift starts saturday
1539. pottery
Quoting taco2me61:


With all due respect I have done that with a main water valve before...
I work for the city and and had to replace a boken valve underwater with the same setup.
Now I was in clean water but the pressure was about 3000gpm and what we did was cut the bolts and replaced the valve while underwater and pressure....

But I do understand that this is 5000 feet deep but not much is different....and no I did not stay at a HIE either....

Taco :o)

3000 gpm is FLOW. Not pressure.
Very different thing.
This really what they are cutting through?

Quoting futuremet:
91L went "poof".
just because we cannot see it does not mean its not there
Quoting futuremet:
91L went "poof".

it carked it.
I was just going to say that pottery. 3000 gpm is nowhere near 3000psi.
1544. pottery
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks atmo, good points. Have a feeling it would take almost as long to develop that as it would to drill the relief well. None the less, it is a feasible concept...Maybe...

Think the bigger point is that we all know accidents happen...and it does not seem to me that enough contingency planning is done by the oil giants.

You a right about the contingency plans for sure...
What a mess.
But i keep saying, crap happens. The BOP SHOULD have prevented this entire thing. Seems like there were errors in the cementing of the well too. All kinds of things worked (or did not work) to cause this .
1545. beell
A couple of good links if you have not seen them:

The Oil Drum-Cutting The Riser

The Oil Drum -Lower Marine Riser Package
Quoting pottery:

3000 gpm is FLOW. Not pressure.
Very different thing.


Oh yea you are right but the pressure was at 140psi and a flow of 3000gpm in a 36inch pipe.
Now what is the flow rate and pressure from this spill???? just wondering????

Taco :o)
1547. pottery
Quoting StormJunkie:
This really what they are cutting through?


Yeah. Impressive!
Quoting taco2me61:


With all due respect I have done that with a main water valve before...
I work for the city and and had to replace a boken valve underwater with the same setup.
Now I was in clean water but the pressure was about 3000gpm and what we did was cut the bolts and replaced the valve while underwater and pressure....

But I do understand that this is 5000 feet deep but not much is different....and no I did not stay at a HIE either....

Taco :o)


The presure at those depths are crazy, several 10's of atmospheres, and the flow rate is pushing out alot of pressure also, right now I think it about trying to hold back a few fire hydrants at once.

Quoting pottery:

And then what ?
There is another pipe, called the drill-pipe, inside the large pipe you see there.
It is locked in place by the fact that it goes down some 18,000 feet into the ground, and also there are rams inside the equipment you see there, that have grabbed the drill-pipe.
Now, if you lift off the top of the thing, you still have to cut the drill pipe. And you cannot lift the top, because there is a bent pipe preventing that.


But that 18,000 ft pipe is connected to the blow out preventer and I think they are trying to save that (not sure why) mabye causing some sort back pressure reducing the flow rate? I am not sure. Once you cut down to the ocean floor their isn't much (or anything besides a relief well) you can do after that.
What the cark? Can we carking cark in here?
I hope BP is going to carking learn something. The carking MMS, too.

Cark 'em. No carking excuse.
Quoting pottery:

You a right about the contingency plans for sure...
What a mess.
But i keep saying, crap happens. The BOP SHOULD have prevented this entire thing. Seems like there were errors in the cementing of the well too. All kinds of things worked (or did not work) to cause this .

many things combined for this accident to happen, some/most could of been prevented.
1551. xcool











NEW NEW
Quoting atmoaggie:
What the cark? Can we carking cark in here?
I hope BP is going to carking learn something. The carking MMS, too.

Cark 'em. No carking excuse.

cark means die in aussie slang
Taco, I think I saw the pressure is 2900psi. But not sure and not sure on the flow rate.
Quoting AussieStorm:

it carked it.


Forget it.. you posted somthing else!
1555. pottery
Quoting taco2me61:


Oh yea you are right but the pressure was at 140psi and a flow of 3000gpm in a 36inch pipe.
Now what is the flow rate and pressure from this spill???? just wondering????

Taco :o)

I think the pressure at the leak is about 2500 PSI.
Quoting AussieStorm:

cark means die in aussie slang

Oh. See, now we all learned something...
lol.
Aussie are you a crow eater?
Quoting AussieStorm:

cark means die in aussie slang


Oh... well you learn somthing new everyday! LOL
Quoting weathersp:


Aussie, the proper term is "croaked" he just spelled it wrong the 1st time.. LOL, and you only need to say "it" once, otherwise its like saying. It died it.

But yes, 91L has croaked.

no. it's aussie slang. 91L has carked it, means 91L has died, is dead.
1560. centex
Here is a good link to CO2 and Global warming. Given the political debate it's wise to hear a master talk about the scientific data. It's very detailed and long but a must see before you believe in the science haters. They are unscientific and have wasted there education and are swayed by popular opinion and political believe.

Link
1545...Great to see you bl! Too funny, I was just about to post this link...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6505
Quoting ElConando:
Aussie are you a crow eater?

I only like my crow carked...
Quoting ElConando:
Aussie are you a crow eater?
No i am not from South Australia.
1564. txjac
cark2
vb
(intr) Austral slang to break down; die
[perhaps from the cry of the crow, as a carrion feeding bird]
Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003
Need a current hurricane image in here..

1566. pottery
Quoting weathersp:


The presure at those depths are crazy, several 10's of atmospheres, and the flow rate is pushing out alot of pressure also, right now I think it about trying to hold back a few fire hydrants at once.



But that 18,000 ft pipe is connected to the blow out preventer and I think they are trying to save that (not sure why) mabye causing some sort back pressure reducing the flow rate? I am not sure. Once you cut down to the ocean floor their isn't much (or anything besides a relief well) you can do after that.

Correct. The BOP is restricting the flow from the well as it is semi-closed.
If the BOP was not there, and the well was free-flowing, they would have evacuated the Gulf Coast and beyond already.
They have to be very careful not to damage the BOP.
Quoting AussieStorm:

no. it's aussie slang. 91L has carked it, means 91L has died, is dead.


I know that now, Thanks LOL. I posted that post while you were submitting the aussie definition.
Quoting weathersp:
Need a current hurricane image in here..


Look at the rain core.
I have not made a technicolor yawn in ages.
Quoting msgambler:
Taco, I think I saw the pressure is 2900psi. But not sure and not sure on the flow rate.

Quoting pottery:

I think the pressure at the leak is about 2500 PSI.


Thank you
I was not sure but still wondering while leaving the top of the new one open so the pressure blows through then lower it down and spot weld (which can be done underwater) would not work.... I just don't get it thats all

Taco :o)
1571. beell
Quoting StormJunkie:
1545...Great to see you bl! Too funny, I was just about to post this link...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6505


Didn't know if you remembered me, SJ LOL.
Always great to see you here!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Look at the rain core.


Oh god thats pretty, I love TRMM..
Quoting ElConando:
I have not made a technicolor yawn in ages.

lol.
you mean a pathway pizza.
1574. spathy
Yes Aussie
That is a dodgy operation down under...
The gulf that is.
Quoting spathy:
Yes Aussie
That is a dodgy operation down under...
The gulf that is.

to right mate!
Didn't know if I remembered you...lol ;)

Ok, I am up way to late and I have to be in Probability and Statistics at 8 in t he morning...And while I am sure that would be a breeze for many of you...Not so much for me. Going to have to bust my ass if I want an A in that class.

Night all
ITCZ is going north a bit.
1578. beell
Night, SJ.
See ya around. Just not on Bolivar, I hope.
Quoting ElConando:
I have not made a technicolor yawn in ages.

A Liquid laugh
Sorry but i gotta do the Harold Holt
Quoting StormJunkie:
Didn't know if I remembered you...lol ;)

Ok, I am up way to late and I have to be in Probability and Statistics at 8 in t he morning...And while I am sure that would be a breeze for many of you...Not so much for me. Going to have to bust my ass if I want an A in that class.

Night all

I don't think an A is allowable grade in that course...maybe my least favorite course. Out of writing, literature, history, and all of the other not-my-usual-cup-of-tea courses I had to take, that one I hated.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't think an A is allowable grade in that course...maybe my least favorite course. Out of writing, literature, history, and all of the other not-my-usual-cup-of-tea courses I had to take, that one I hated.


That is one of the hardest classes i took in college....geesh i could not remember half the formulas and never tried to remember. Thank you Dr. Philips for allowing all test to be open book.....even in open book it was hard to find what you needed........LOL
I think the saw is stuck .. no progress for a while now.
Quoting pottery:

I never saw a tie-off, come to think of it. They cant let it fall because it may damage the BOP . And I dont know if the ROV can lift that wieght.
I would guess they going to winch it up.


It's being held up in a number of places downstream from the kink so it neither pinches the blade nor snaps off before the cut is complete. The big jaw thing that cut off the downstream piece of riser is still hanging on and I'm sure will do most of the heavy lifting once the riser is pulled away from the flex joint at the top of the BOP. Was part of why the downstream riser was severed off ... less weight to deal with when the riser is cut off below the kink.
1585. centex
1586. pottery
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It's being held up in a number of places downstream from the kink so it neither pinches the blade nor snaps off before the cut is complete. The big jaw thing that cut off the downstream piece of riser is still hanging on and I'm sure will do most of the heavy lifting once the riser is pulled away from the flex joint at the top of the BOP. Was part of why the downstream riser was severed off ... less weight to deal with when the riser is cut off below the kink.

That makes sense.
Quoting HyDrO420:
I think the saw is stuck .. no progress for a while now.


That would not surprise me at all as i said earlier the binding they might get from the weight would be something to deal with.
1588. pottery
I wanted to stay up to see.... but its 12:45
I'm gone.

1589. pottery
Before I go-- the pressure from the cut is blasting the saw housing and shaking the entire frame!
Quoting pottery:
Before I go-- the pressure from the cut is blasting the saw housing and shaking the entire frame!

Zoom in view of the saw-wire...
There are water jet saws out there that can cut Steel like butter. I wonder at what pressure the oil becomes the saw and cuts the other saw.
1592. xcool





Oh, I love TRMM

guess they stopped sawing for some reason.
1596. xcool
Quoting frostynugs:
guess they stopped sawing for some reason.


I hope it's not jammed!
hi all
1599. kingy
good morning frosty nuggets and everyone. There will be an unholy mess when that riser comes off, it will be insane
1600. xcool
hey
1601. xcool
next ecmwf
how is everyone tonight hope all is good
1603. kingy
hey xcool. are you from europe ?
1604. xcool
kingy noo .why...
1605. xcool
btwntx08 .yeah .;)
nice pic of ur baby boy scott he looks cute :)
1607. centex
Quoting btwntx08:
hi all
Quoting washingaway:


I hope it's not jammed!
Just have issue with meaningless post and posters who act like they know better. I've watched this poster and noticed very biased. Acts like very schooled but is politically biased. Just a warning.
1608. xcool
btwntx08.thanks .he bad boy .
1609. xcool



TRMM caught a 16km (52,000 feet) high hot tower in Hurricane Phet over the Indian Ocean just before 10 PM EST...

1611. kingy
xcool - 'hey' is a term used by a few euopean colleagues to say hello. Scandinavians and a few belgians seem to use the word a lot (instead of 'hello'). I know US/UK folk use theterm a lot too, just wondering
1612. xcool
kingy :0
1613. jscs
Quoting kingy:
xcool - 'hey' is a term used by a few euopean colleagues to say hello. Scandinavians and a few belgians seem to use the word a lot (instead of 'hello'). I know US/UK folk use theterm a lot too, just wondering


Hey means 'hey' (hello). Everywhere, including my entire of living in the US.
1607: huh????
1615. xcool
hola!
1616. xcool
there is no issue mr now plz just be quiet cause saying hi is nothing
1618. centex


conus is clear from tropics.
1619. xcool
gfs and ngp .tropical STUFF
wave coming off of Africa... just wanted to share it with others...
1621. xcool
BIG WAVE...gfs
1622. xcool
hello
1624. xcool
TropicalWave heyyy
Quoting TropicalWave:
hello

hellooooo
what's going on, you two? :)
1627. xcool
i'm justing wait for ECMWF,models
Anyone home?
happy hurricane season, guys.
hey flodd, that's an excellent model, xcool, i like it a lot.


T4.0 Dvorak intensity (at least they see an eye now) =)

VERY Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet from the RSMC estimated intensity 65-70 knots.

-----------
Still waiting for the 3:00 AM UTC advisory.. It's almost 7:00 AM UTC now. =P
12z ecmwf looks like it have something at the end coming off of africa
1633. xcool



NEW .SHOW
well im out for the night
1635. kingy
riser will be chopped off soon.....
1636. kingy
Quoting jscs:


Hey means 'hey' (hello). Everywhere, including my entire of living in the US.


yeah but what do you know about anything OUTSIDE of US, thats my point
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


T4.0 Dvorak intensity (at least they see an eye now) =)

VERY Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet from the RSMC estimated intensity 65-70 knots.

-----------
Still waiting for the 3:00 AM UTC advisory.. It's almost 7:00 AM UTC now. =P




RSMC when was CAT1 say 35kts and is at least 90kts say 65knts, this is not 65kts cyclone. Is a CAT2 increasing to a major.
Quoting kingy:
riser will be chopped off soon.....


I can't tell, wish they would zoom back out.
ok what i miss lol
LOL you're not going to like my next post then Claudette.

here comes the big difference from JTWC and RSMC advisory at the same time period.
1642. kingy
Quoting btwntx08:
ok what i miss lol


nothing to lol about bro, the riser is coming off and you took your eye off the ball.
1643. xcool
ALOT ROB
1644. kingy
lol
i saw the potential wave off africa on that ecmwf
me too, what's up with that, guys? coul dit develop? its still too early for the cape verde season, isn't it?
1647. xcool
btwntx08 YEAH GFS TOO AND NGP
Quoting WxTracker15:
12z ecmwf looks like it have something at the end coming off of africa


No, thats upper level... if there was something coming off of africa, I would look for ripples in the isobars, which there are none here.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THIRTEEN
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
8:30 AM IST June 2 2010
=======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved west northwest and lays centered near 17.5N 61.0E, or about 1200 kms west southwest of Mumbai, 1060 kms southwest of Naliya, 1100 kms southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, and 600 kms south southeast of Sur, Oman.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 60 knots with a central pressure of 985 hPa. The state of the sea is very high to phenomenal around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates ragged eye of the system. The diameter of the eye of the system is about 20 km. The eye temperature is -59C. The intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken/solid intense to very intense convection observed over the area is 14.0N to 20.0N and 56.0E to 63.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5-15 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N over the region. The relatively vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly north northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastward towards Pakistan and adjoining Gujarat coast under the influence of the approaching trough in mid-latitude westerlies to 500 HPA level.

Gale wind with speed of 35-40 knots gusting to 45 knots would commence along and off Oman coast by this evening. It is likely to increase gradually becoming 90-105 knots by Thurday and 115-120 knots by Friday morning. Sea surface conditions will be very high to phenomenal along and off Oman coast.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
9 HRS: 18.5N 60.0E - 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 19.5N 59.5E - 80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.5N 60.5E - 115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 24.5N 66.5E - 110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

---
they really changed the forecast outlook
hmm 115 knots is Category 4 according to my 10min/3min/1min intensity charts.

Dvorak: T6.0
IMD Intensity: 115
NHC Intensity: 115-130 kt
SSHS Intensity: Category 4
look at 1633 its there sp
Quoting btwntx08:
look at 1633 its there sp


where, i dont see anything.
look south of the cv islands
what model? cause i dont see squat on the ECM.
1655. xcool
weak low
Quoting xcool:
weak low

aleast its something to watch
btw in terms in severe weather today...i checked models for severe and its definity shows it but the dum spc doesnt want to place a slgt risk for south tx it was there yesterday but was removed cause of low bulk shear well i checked that and its 40 kts or higher so keep an eye as a slgt should be issue for south tx cause the things for severe are there
nite, gentlemen.
LAST BULLETIN RMSC



ARB 02/2010/13 Dated: 02.06.2010

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST



Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.



The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 over westcentral Arabian sea near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).



The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.



Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:



Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

02-06-2010/0830
17.5/61.0
110-120 gusting to 130

02-06-2010/1130
18.0/60.5
120-130 gusting to 140

02-06-2010/1730
18.5/60.0
130-140 gusting to 150

02-06-2010/2330
19.0/59.5
140-150 gusting to 165

03-06-2010/0530
19.5/59.5
150-160 gusting to 175

03-06-2010/1730
20.5/59.5
170-190 gusting to 205

04-06-2010/0530
22.5/60.5
210-220 gusting to 235

04-06-.2010/1730
23.5/63.5
210-220 gusting to 235

05-06-.2010/0530
24.5/66.5
200-210 gusting to 225


here is a example of why look at the text forecast sounding:
Conv temperature: 36.63 C = 97.93 F
Cap Strength: 1.50 C
Lifted Index: -9.09 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -8.68 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: -0.86 C
Showalter Index: -6.75 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index: 56.55 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
Vertical Totals Index: 30.20 C
Cross Totals Index: 26.35 C
K Index: 34.29 Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 568.62 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -4.43 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

1661. xcool
cmc show 000
oh well lol
1663. xcool
lmao


Cyclone PHET CAT2
1665. xcool
i'm going bed
me 2 im heading off good night all
PHET, by FNMOC. PHET is a Cat. 3

03A.PHET.110kts.941mb.17.7N.60.6E
Quoting torreoviedo:
PHET, by FNMOC. PHET is a Cat. 3

03A.PHET.110kts.941mb.17.7N.60.6E


Hello, yes it is and forecast say CAT4 in the next 24hours, looking maps of emmanuel max winds potencial around 140-150kts, expected to get around 115-130kts.
oh ya. The JTWC 0900 AM advisory is showing 140 kts in the outlook forecast.


The eye of PHET is bigger and bigger.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh ya. The JTWC 0900 AM advisory is showing 140 kts in the outlook forecast.


Is there an advisory at 0900? I don't see it in the web
The advisory is in the text tab at FMNOC.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 17:55:40 N Lon : 60:34:31 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 932.6mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -46.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
WTIO31 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.3N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.6N 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 60.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
The advisory is in the text tab at FMNOC.


Do'h! lol

coastal region of Oman is going to get very, very gusty winds.
Morning everyone. We had some rain yesterday evening, but I believe I'm correct in thinking Agatha remnants won't get here until the weekend?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
coastal region of Oman is going to get very, very gusty winds.


Some model puts Phet to land in the city of Karachi with at least CAT2 will be catastrophic if land in a big city like that, i dont think there buldings are prepare for than kind of storm.
Waid, waid, waid, waid, waid.....



Hmm... didn't realize it had held together in that area for so long....
1680. Makoto1
The discussion on Phet also mentioned the distinct possibility that this moves farther west and hits Oman straight on, which for something that is forecast to become a category 5 is a scary thought. Either way they'll get pretty badly flooded there, though this means Karachi gets a somewhat "weaker" system.
Quoting Makoto1:
The discussion on Phet also mentioned the distinct possibility that this moves farther west and hits Oman straight on, which for something that is forecast to become a category 5 is a scary thought. Either way they'll get pretty badly flooded there, though this means Karachi gets a somewhat "weaker" system.


Maybe youre right now is near CAT4 could get CAT5 in the next 24hours.

I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?


Yeah, At least no city in the south coast of oman. The only city can touch is SUR in the south-east coast.

Also the structure is donut shaped like most cat 5s it looks more like a cruller
1685. Makoto1
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?


Maybe it won't be quite a 5, but that's the forecast I saw... Either way it's going to be extremely powerful, and I don't think Oman can handle anything like this. I'm not sure of the details if they're warning anyone but I remember Gonu caused 4 billion dollars in damage there.
Check http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ for Phet. Will grow to cat 5 and forecasting direct hit on Karachi as Cat 3. This is a huge disaster in the making. The National Disaster management Authority disaster planning for Karachi (read it at http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Docs/AnnualReport/KarachiPlan.doc) recommends evacuation of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people. This requires early warnings for the population. These warnings are not happening. Given the size of Karachi (15 million people) and surrounding areas - much of it below sea level - they need to begin evacuations now.
The planning, incidentally, is very poor. Doesn't even mention previous, smaller, cyclones to hit Karachi. Such as 1965, which killed 10,000+ people. Karachi was also much smaller then. There was also a storm surge devastated the city, of just over 100,000 as was then, in 1902.
I dread to think what's about to happen.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 18:04:18 N Lon : 60:19:31 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 924.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


114kts its CAT4 so next report of JTWC will be CAT4
Hopefully Oman will get a Gonu and not a Nargis, it all really depends on how they prepare
1690. Makoto1
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Hopefully Oman will get a Gonu and not a Nargis, it all really depends on how they prepare


And partially on if it curves sharply or not. I guess we'll find out in the next few days.
Quoting lunabaas2:
Check http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ for Phet. Will grow to cat 5 and forecasting direct hit on Karachi as Cat 3. This is a huge disaster in the making. The National Disaster management Authority disaster planning for Karachi (read it at http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Docs/AnnualReport/KarachiPlan.doc) recommends evacuation of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people. This requires early warnings for the population. These warnings are not happening. Given the size of Karachi (15 million people) and surrounding areas - much of it below sea level - they need to begin evacuations now.
The planning, incidentally, is very poor. Doesn't even mention previous, smaller, cyclones to hit Karachi. Such as 1965, which killed 10,000+ people. Karachi was also much smaller then. There was also a storm surge devastated the city, of just over 100,000 as was then, in 1902.
I dread to think what's about to happen.


How awful. We should all hope that Phet swerves one way or another. The major disasters are beginning to add up.



10 miles eye PHET
T4.5 reading on the radar IMD uses to classify a system for the 8:00 AM UTC hour.

T4.5 is around 80-85 knots..
KALPANA-1 satellite makes the eye very small looking.
Anyone watching the ROV video? I've been staring at more or less the same thing for hours now. In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.

Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.

My speculation is that they were doing fine with the 21 ID riser pipe that they were securely fastened to via the skid at the flange below the cut. And then they hit the drill pipe ... which is free to move around inside the riser (to the extent that is possible with those flow rates) ... and started to experience "chatter" as the cutter started in on that. That could lead to all manner of problems - breakage of the cutting wire, pulling what is supposed to be a clean horizontal cut up or down, and probably other things I haven't thought of.

Again, speculation - only what I think I am seeing; not necessarily what is happening on the seabed.

Let's hope they get this done. Next step would be the second BOP and I sense that would be much more difficult.
1696. IKE
Last Update: 2-JUN-2010 04:51am EDT

June 1st marked the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the Atlantic Basin has no developing tropical systems at this time.

We continue to watch a large thunderstorm complex just east of the Yucatan Peninsula which once was part of Tropical Storm Agatha from the East Pacific. Low-level wind analysis shows a weak cyclonic circulation under the thunderstorm complex. However, mid- and upper levels are being sheared by strong west-southwest to east-northeast oriented upper-level winds. This shear is more pronounced farther north. Current thinking is that the system will move very little and slowly fall apart during the next day or two near or along the eastern Yucatan coast, mostly south of Cozumel and Cancun, Mexico. High-level moisture from this remnant feature continues to spread east-northeast influencing the development of showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the Florida Straits and over southern-most Florida. The enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over this same area is expected to last through Wednesday and perhaps even on Thursday before the remnant feature falls apart.

We are tracking five tropical waves that are moving across the southern North Atlantic and into the southern Caribbean. All waves remain weak and there are no signs of support for development.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston
..............................................


The Atlantic looks quiet through at least the middle of June, to me. But...I'm not a rocket scientist or a met. Just a novelist.

1697. cg2916
Phet.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Anyone watching the ROV video? I've been staring at more or less the same thing for hours now. In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.

Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.

My speculation is that they were doing fine with the 21 ID riser pipe that they were securely fastened to via the skid at the flange below the cut. And then they hit the drill pipe ... which is free to move around inside the riser (to the extent that is possible with those flow rates) ... and started to experience "chatter" as the cutter started in on that. That could lead to all manner of problems - breakage of the cutting wire, pulling what is supposed to be a clean horizontal cut up or down, and probably other things I haven't thought of.

Again, speculation - only what I think I am seeing; not necessarily what is happening on the seabed.

Let's hope they get this done. Next step would be the second BOP and I sense that would be much more difficult.


I've been watching too. Oil drum comments suggest the cutting wire is stuck - frozen in methane ice.

Link
From Crown Weather:

The upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that has been over the western Atlantic is now moving off to the east and is being replaced by more sinking air which will be in place over the next couple of weeks or so. This sinking air will suppress convection and make development less likely over the next week or two.
1701. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update; Phet to become a category 5 storm



Love the post. I didn't even know about the thing N of Puerto Rico. We may have to watch that.

As for 91L, unless it pulls a fast one like it did yesterday, I think it's dead.

That area in the SW Carib. has lost convection, but I'll still watch it in the EPAC.

That wave does look pretty impressive, I have to admit. And all it has to deal with it dry air and shear. Too far south, though, but still bears watching.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update; Phet to become a category 5 storm



Love the post. I didn't even know about the thing N of Puerto Rico. We may have to watch that


Thanks, it was also in yesterday's update....make sure you try to read the updates each day since everything will be monitored this season. its too risky to let things sneak up on us...

Yesterday



Phet getting a bit close for comfort

Phet continues to strengthen and should become a category 5 cyclone later today.



91L completely gone. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't deactivated it, they should do that later today.
COAPS model predicts for the 2010 Hurricane Season.

17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes

Link

The COAPS model did well last year.

8 Named Storms
4 Hurricanes
Interesting/sad commentary on Weather Channel's format change (Fri night movies with weather in them...), attempt to hike fees, Dish almost canceling them. Dish & Weather channel not doing local forecast "on the 8's".

Looks like Dr. Steve Lyons got another forecast right.

http://www.tvsquad.com/2010/05/25/weather-channel-vs-dish-network-storm-warning-for-viewers/?icid=m ain|main|dl2|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvsquad.com%2F2010%2F05%2F25%2Fweather-channel-vs-dish-network-s torm-warning-for-viewers%2F
Quoting IKE:
Last Update: 2-JUN-2010 04:51am EDT

The Atlantic looks quiet through at least the middle of June, to me. But...I'm not a rocket scientist or a met. Just a novelist.



What books have you written?
1709. P451
Local Hazards June 1-7.




No local tropical hazards for the region for the second week June 8-14.

1710. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


What books have you written?


Actually none.

Change novelist to tropical fanatic.

***reaches for coffee***


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/CANGIALOSI
Good morning Ike, Storm, P451. Hope all are well this morning. Beautiful morning on the Alabama Coast this morning but the sounds in the distance may change all that.
1712. IKE



Workers collect washed-up oil along the coastline of Dauphin Island, Ala. Tuesday, June 1, 2010, as oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead continues to spread in the Gulf of Mexico. Since the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig, a disaster scenario has emerged with millions of gallons of crude oil spewing unchecked into the Gulf.
Quoting IKE:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/CANGIALOSI


Thanks for the quickie update, IKE.

What a shame...and I defrosted crow overnight just in case.

Oh well...still plenty more crow in the freezer.

Atticus Finch done put down another dog! :)

(RIP 91L! :)
1714. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


What a shame...and I defrosted crow overnight just in case.

Oh well...still plenty more crow in the freezer.

Atticus Finch done put down another dog! :)

(RIP 91L! :)



0-0-0.:)
LOL I meant weather wise IKE
1716. P451
Quoting IKE:



0-0-0.:)


LOL
1717. P451
Quoting IKE:



Workers collect washed-up oil along the coastline of Dauphin Island, Ala. Tuesday, June 1, 2010, as oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead continues to spread in the Gulf of Mexico. Since the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig, a disaster scenario has emerged with millions of gallons of crude oil spewing unchecked into the Gulf.


:/


"We'll be putting the cap assembly, loading that out and sending it to the seabed later tonight," Suttles said. "We should be able to install this tomorrow. And hopefully by late tomorrow or Thursday, we should have this thing operating."

========

In Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser warned a hurricane in the area could drive more oil ashore.

"We don't want to scare anybody, but we need to be realistic about it," Nungesser said. "If a storm does top out levees, it will probably bring oil with it."

He said residents who evacuate ahead of a hurricane might return "not to a flooded home, but to a home that is completely contaminated with this oil."

========

Link
Shear is still below average in the tropical atlantic

morning all
Gonna be hard for that soon-to-be "category 5" cyclone to miss Oman at this point. If it starts to turn north and then north east even as we speak...

Outflow looks impressive.
Sheer minimal
Water ridiculously hot
Dry air practically non-existent


First Cat 5?
The good news: Phet has now shrunk to 7 deg lat, 8 deg lon diameter, only slightly larger than Hurricane Katrina, but now it is poised to make a direct landfall on Karachi on Friday as a 160 mph (260 km/h) cyclone. I expect a 45-ft (14-metre) storm surge on the Indus Delta. So Pakistan will likely have a triple catastrophe before the week is out: possible destruction of its major city and port, flooding of its most fertile land, and a landslide lake that could unleash an 18-metre high downstream tsunami--YIKES.



good morning all another day
1723. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
LOL I meant weather wise IKE


Zero...none...nada.

Cut and cap in the GOM.
Morning KOTG
Did anyone else notice the reference to Jeff Masters' blog on XKCD today? Made me happy.

http://xkcd.com/748/
1726. P451
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Shear is still below average in the tropical atlantic





1727. pottery
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Anyone watching the ROV video? I've been staring at more or less the same thing for hours now. In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.

Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.

My speculation is that they were doing fine with the 21 ID riser pipe that they were securely fastened to via the skid at the flange below the cut. And then they hit the drill pipe ... which is free to move around inside the riser (to the extent that is possible with those flow rates) ... and started to experience "chatter" as the cutter started in on that. That could lead to all manner of problems - breakage of the cutting wire, pulling what is supposed to be a clean horizontal cut up or down, and probably other things I haven't thought of.

Again, speculation - only what I think I am seeing; not necessarily what is happening on the seabed.

Let's hope they get this done. Next step would be the second BOP and I sense that would be much more difficult.

I am a little behind, here. A man needs his sleep!
I am not sure what is happening now. They did say that the cut would take less than an hour I think. Not sure if it is done? Dosnt look so.
Also, how do they install a new BOP on this, with a riser still attached? (if they cannot cut it off?)
1728. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:

The Atlantic looks quiet through at least the middle of June, to me. But...I'm not a rocket scientist or a met. Just a novelist.


Ike, would that be novice?
1730. IKE
Oil 10 miles from Pensacola Beach. CNN saying it should reach the panhandle coast within 2 days.

TPIO10 PGTW 021148

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 18.2N

D. 60.0E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE EMBEDDED IN WHT
SURROUNDING CNVCTN YIELD 6.0 EYE NUMBER. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHT FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. PT YIELDS
6.0. MET YIELDS 5.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0937Z 18.2N 60.1E MMHS


ROSS
1732. Makoto1
That graphic is showing the Saturday forecast point from the JTWC as the Friday point, and it's missing the Friday point entirely. The current forecast according to the JTWC is it hitting Karachi as a strong Category 3 after some weakening from a category 5 due to elevated wind shear and land interaction near Oman.

Either way the point stays the same, however, this is really bad.
1733. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:

Ike, would that be novice?


There ya go! That's the word! God I'm stupid....lol.
Quoting Makoto1:
That graphic is showing the Saturday forecast point from the JTWC as the Friday point, and it's missing the Friday point entirely. The current forecast according to the JTWC is it hitting Karachi as a strong Category 3 after some weakening from a category 5 due to elevated wind shear and land interaction near Oman.

Either way the point stays the same, however, this is really bad.
20,000 souls is the opening bid this could or will be bad come 48 hrs from now
1735. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:


There ya go! That's the word! God I'm stupid....lol.

Stupid???? Nah, just having a senior moment. I have them all the time.
Morning pottery. BTW it is after June, 1 no sleep allowed.
1737. pottery
I see a big increase in WV across Africa and into the Atlantic this morning. Looks kind of ominous...
1738. P451



MODIS LOOP ending 0650Z (About 5 hours ago)
Wow



Heackofa wave for June FULL IMAGE:


Shear is near 5-10 knots out there.

This may have been already posted, but when does CSU come out with their updated outlook?
1741. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Morning pottery. BTW it is after June, 1 no sleep allowed.

I hear you.
Going to be a hard one, on this old and wasted body...
heheheheh
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Sorry, but when does CSU come out with their updated outlook?


Later this morning around 10 AM EDT.
1743. P451
24HR Loop

1744. Makoto1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
20,000 souls is the opening bid this could or will be bad come 48 hrs from now


Is it bad that I wasn't surprised by the number?
1745. eddye
we could see invest 92L from the african wave
1746. pottery
Quoting P451:
24HR Loop


This is the first wave we have seen to increase moisture over the water so far this round.
Need to keep an eye on it I believe.
re 1743: that looks quite impressive to me. But what the heck do I know.
1748. P451



MODIS ENHANCED: Earlier today.

Quoting Makoto1:


Is it bad that I wasn't surprised by the number?


ill prepared its like watchin a train wreck that has yet to happen

we always get a big one over there for the season and phet is that one
Another hurricane season. Back to lurking and the loads of questions
Quoting pottery:

I am a little behind, here. A man needs his sleep!
I am not sure what is happening now. They did say that the cut would take less than an hour I think. Not sure if it is done? Dosnt look so.
Also, how do they install a new BOP on this, with a riser still attached? (if they cannot cut it off?)


The news (cnn) says they got it off but i have not seen it yet.


Cyclone PHET CAT4 seems to build a bigger eye.

Also direction is west-NW so goes direct to SE of OMAN.
1753. IKE
Quoting HyDrO420:


The news (cnn) says they got it off but i have not seen it yet.


I think I saw it a few minutes ago. They had it strapped and were moving it.
The African Wave could very well become Alex next week...
1755. IKE
From the Northwest Florida Daily News....Oil sheen 7 miles from Pensacola shores
1756. P451
The African Wave is impressive. Going to wait see what it looks like tonight before thinking much about it.

Central Atlantic MDR still loaded with sand from that storm I posted a day or two ago.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This may have been already posted, but when does CSU come out with their updated outlook?


June 4th, or 7th. One of those two :-/
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


June 4th, or 7th. One of those two :-/


How about today...This morning.
Impressive african wave out there.

Oil moving toward FL this morning. Good lord did BP make a mess out there. Good to see there will be criminal investigations.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This may have been already posted, but when does CSU come out with their updated outlook?


June 4th, or 7th. One of those two :-/
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


How about today...This morning.



Missed this little entry on the bottom :-o

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters
1761. IKE
Quoting lickitysplit:
Impressive african wave out there.

Oil moving toward FL this morning. Good lord did BP make a mess out there. Good to see there will be criminal investigations.


I have doubts that BP will survive.


From the Mobile,AL. weather office...

"MARINE...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH AND BUILDING LATER TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WITH THIS PATTERN AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OUT OF TEXAS LATER IN
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS BECOMING MOSTLY CHOPPY. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST."
Morning Mark:

"Those who don't read the newspaper are uninformed. Those that do are misinformed."

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back as soon as it starts to rain."

"My life has been a series of disasters, most of which never happened."
1763. IKE
From New Orleans....oil anyone?

"MARINE...
COMPLEX AND MESSY. SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY THROUGH THE FAR SW AND S COASTAL WATERS.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTING SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND LOADS OF SHRA/TSRA. HAVE HOISTED SCA FLAGS
FOR 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC NEARER TO SHORE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE POSSIBILITY THAT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION COULD PRODUCE SWEEP IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING A
BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH DS-MET HAVE
ADDED HIGHER GUST WORDING TO CWF. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM AS IT IS HAS
BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEMS PASSAGE SHOULD
PEAK TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS BACKING IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM THEN RELAXING AND BECOMING SW AND VARIABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE. SEAS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET OVER FAR COASTAL WATERS AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4
FEET. PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY."
Good morning. Sorry to have missed Jeff's show yesterday. Did anyone hear it?!

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 82W S OF 10N. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE ERN MOST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
The African Wave hs Maximum Sustained Winds of at least 30 m/h.
That's a massive African wave WAX!
Good Morning.........Tropical Atlantic quiet this morning except for the precipitation over the Greater Antilles and tons of oil in the Gulf seems likely after watching some news last night on how difficult is will be for the releif wells to "hook up" with the the target the first time.......Can't wait for the CSU Outlook later today but we pretty much know it will call for a very active season which will mean, per the news last night, for delays and interruptions in the relief well efforts if storms approach the Gulf this season.....Oil and Hurricanes will be a deadly combination this Summer I'm afraid.....Not looking forward to it at all this Year....I feel so bad for all of the coastal residents/economies in the Gulf.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


June 4th, or 7th. One of those two :-/


Thanks.

It knew it was today, but I wanted to know what time it was.

Only about an hour or so until its released.
1770. kingy
heh heh I can imagine the execs will be sweating in BP at the thought of a long prison sentence. E-mails will be getting deleted, and many more 'arse covering' e-mails will be getting sent out such as "I always said we had to make safety a higher priority". "We did all we could, what about the other guys" "Where are haliburton in all of this".

Having said all of that I continue to think they are playing the PR game pretty well. They are doing a great job of making sure the live video feed doesn't show the main gusher, and they are still avoiding any kind of professional analysis of the true extent of oil leakage.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thanks.

It knew it was today, but I wanted to know what time it was.

Only about an hour or so until its released.


Yeah, when are you releasing yours??? May 30th was three days ago :P
1772. kingy
Ike - can you smell the oil yet from your location ?
I dont think that BP SHOULD survive IKE. In our country we've given corporations the rights of individuals. With rights comes responsibility and consequences. Just like a person that killled 11 people and caused massive harm, BP should get the coroporate death sentance and individual decisions makers should be put in jail.
Kingy, I'm near Dauphin Island and I don't smell anything yet.
1775. eddye
we got invest 92 L off africa
Last Report over PHET,

Cyclone PHET 201006021200 18.2 60 130kts

Wow 130kts near to be CAT 5

1772:

I've gotten mildly sick from the oil a few times already, and I'm a good hundred miles inland from it's closest approach...
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning. Sorry to have missed Jeff's show yesterday. Did anyone hear it?!

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 82W S OF 10N. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE ERN MOST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg


I was surprised at how few people showed up to ask questions. Their phones weren't working so they had people type their questions in. I enjoyed the show. Look forward to next week.
1776:

Not surprising. Based on water temperature, we could be seeing a 190mph 1 min. Sustained cyclone over there...
I like the idea of prison sentences. But even murderers get off with enough money paid out to attorneys.
Also like the liquidating assets option. Shut BP down. But again, with enough lawyers you can get away with anything.
This is not a complaint about lawyers; they are doing their job. It is the system that is at fault for letting off the guilty if they have enough money to pay for a defense that can find loopholes.
I've said zero tolerance for this sort of thing from the beginning. Make an example out of them that an environmental holocaust will not be tolerated. Not to mention their poor human safety record which will come up in a trial.
Safety First!
Quoting IKE:



0-0-0.:)


Ah, the good old days! :D
1782. eddye
invest 92 L
Quoting eddye:
invest 92 L


We dont have...
1784. eddye
im sorry soon to be 92L
well at 730 CNN said the riser was off
now they say the cut is still underway

anyone got any other info?
Quoting Chicklit:
I like the idea of prison sentences. Also like the liquidating assets option. Shut BP down. I've said zero tolerance for this sort of thing from the beginning. Make an example out of them that an environmental holocaust will not be tolerated. Not to mention their poor human safety record which will come up in a trial.
Safety First!


Agreed -- though shouldn't we also bring proceedings against the politicians who refused the legislation which would have required BP to fit equipment which would have prevented this, just as they do in South America and Europe?

As a Brit, I'm aware I'm likely not getting the full story or full coverage, but I'm really surprised how little discussion there is of the governmental culpability for this disaster -- all the blame is being pointed at BP, and the politicians who caused it are all getting away scott free? If I'm misunderstanding/misrepresenting the facts, I apologise -- this isn't my field at all, but I thought the Bush administration had plenty of chances to bring in laws that would prevent these things? Shouldn't they be pilloried too?

At the end of the day, though, so long as we maintain our dependence on oil, these kind of things will happen :( BP should be hammered for this, and pay for what they've done, but we should all think long and hard about the way we use our planet's resources, and maybe start shouting louder for alternatives to be researched?
They are finishing the backside cut now. They had to move the saw to the other side.
1789. IKE
Quoting kingy:
Ike - can you smell the oil yet from your location ?


No..not yet. I'm 30 miles inland from Destin,FL. and Sandestin.
This African Wave could very well become Alex. It would likely track into the Caribbean, same track as 91L. However, conditions will be a lot more favorable then.
Quoting eddye:
invest 92 L

Atlantic


91L.INVEST


East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific


94W.INVEST


Indian Ocean


03A.PHET


Southern Hem.

Quoting msgambler:
They are finishing the backside cut now. They had to move the saw to the other side.


Thank you
:-)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The good news: Phet has now shrunk to 7 deg lat, 8 deg lon diameter, only slightly larger than Hurricane Katrina, but now it is poised to make a direct landfall on Karachi on Friday as a 160 mph (260 km/h) cyclone. I expect a 45-ft (14-metre) storm surge on the Indus Delta. So Pakistan will likely have a triple catastrophe before the week is out: possible destruction of its major city and port, flooding of its most fertile land, and a landslide lake that could unleash an 18-metre high downstream tsunami--YIKES.





Yikes is it.
I appreciate that this blog is mostly US oriented, but what's happening here is New Orleans on speed.Right down to them having a failed disaster planning scenario the previous year!
Except, instead of 2000 people dying in a Western city, we're looking at hundreds of thousands of potential casualties. Eight million people are at high risk.
Link

This may be the first mega-disaster of global warming. And only the weather geeks seem to be paying attention.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Atlantic


91L.INVEST


East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific


94W.INVEST


Indian Ocean


03A.PHET


Southern Hem.



He said soon to be afterwards...
1795. P451
http://www.airnow.gov/



Unhealthy for me in NJ and you can tell. North East has terrible air quality today. Warnings out for it.

==

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED AN
AIR QUALITY HEALTH ADVISORY...IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY.

AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY MEANS THAT AIR QUALITY WITHIN THE REGION MAY
APPROACH OR EXCEED UNHEALTHY STANDARDS.


==
Quoting Quadrantid:


Agreed -- though shouldn't we also bring proceedings against the politicians who refused the legislation which would have required BP to fit equipment which would have prevented this, just as they do in South America and Europe?

As a Brit, I'm aware I'm likely not getting the full story or full coverage, but I'm really surprised how little discussion there is of the governmental culpability for this disaster -- all the blame is being pointed at BP, and the politicians who caused it are all getting away scott free? If I'm misunderstanding/misrepresenting the facts, I apologise -- this isn't my field at all, but I thought the Bush administration had plenty of chances to bring in laws that would prevent these things? Shouldn't they be pilloried too?

At the end of the day, though, so long as we maintain our dependence on oil, these kind of things will happen :( BP should be hammered for this, and pay for what they've done, but we should all think long and hard about the way we use our planet's resources, and maybe start shouting louder for alternatives to be researched?


You are right, we should maybe lock up Bush/Cheney while we are at it. Heck, lock Obama up too. He's still advocating for further oil drilling, just not for the next 6 months.
Quoting IKE:


No..not yet. I'm 30 miles inland from Destin,FL. and Sandestin.


It's strange, on certain days you can smell it in Tampa.
Founds this pretty interesting, from 1 of our analog yrs

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/168.html#REC
Good point, Quandratid.
Yes, we need to clean house in our government agencies as well. Point made and I totally agree. I have never understood why the Coast Guard became the "gofer" for BP. The appearances are that the USCG authorities helped to cover up the volume of oil being released. NOAA had recommended this area be named a protected area due to its sensitive breeding grounds, yet the EPA went along with permitting?! That place needs to be cleaned up as well. It appears instead of the Environmental Protection Agency we have the (oil) Executives Protection Agency.
There is a place called "Islands in the Stream" ; now it is death valley.
GulfRestorationNetwork
1800. JamesSA
Quoting msgambler:
They are finishing the backside cut now. They had to move the saw to the other side.
Thanks. I saw 'The Jaws of Death' hovering over the pipe, and I surmised the diamond cut had failed overnight and they were resorting to the shears. That is better news.
LOL " The Jaws Of Death". As a medic/firefighter I have to be upset but as a Coast resident I find it funny.
Quoting msgambler:
LOL " The Jaws Of Death". As a medic/firefighter I have to be upset but as a Coast resident I find it funny.


Problem with that is that it doesn't cut as cleanly as the diamond cut saw, and you want the cleanest of cuts to put the top hat onto so it doesn't leak.
Ok, yeah that's a monster.

TS winds very symetric and extend out roughly 180 nautical miles in every direction.


TPIO10 PGTW 021148

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 18.2N

D. 60.0E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE EMBEDDED IN WHT
SURROUNDING CNVCTN YIELD 6.0 EYE NUMBER. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHT FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. PT YIELDS
6.0. MET YIELDS 5.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0937Z 18.2N 60.1E MMHS


ROSS
weathersp, they are not cutting with it. They are cutting with the saw. I think they are using the cutter as a grabber to move the riser once cut.
1806. P451
36HR IR Loop.

WatchingThisOne "In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.
Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.
"

Stretch a ribbon between your hand, then blow on it. It'll vibrate and probably make a sound.
That blade is stretched across oil that's flowin' with a LOT more power than your breath blowin' across the ribbon. You betcha that thing is vibratin' somethin' fierce, and vibratin' the machinery attached to it.

1698 squallcat "Oil drum comments suggest the cutting wire is stuck - frozen in methane ice."

Anything that can cut through pipe steel ain't gonna be slowed down by methane ice. Coulda been the pipe torqued as the cut progressed, putting extra weight/pressure on the blade, which acted as a brake.

Kinda like laying a log lengthwise between two supports on the ends, and chainsawing down the middle. The blade'll get pinched after ya cut through enough so that the log starts to sag, be braked to a stop so that ya can't cut no more... until ya prop up the center so that it doesn't sag.

More likely they deliberately stopped cutting when the power needed to keep the blade spinning started to increase rapidly to strap up the pipe so that it wouldn't sag or torque.
This was taken last night from TRMM's Precipitation Radar Imager. 16km (52 kft) high "Hot Tower" in the right eyewall.

big picture up to 905 am edt


nice cyclonic turning over cen north south america strong turning in cen atl but wrong way and cyclonic turning just emerged off africa
i know looks like something is preventing good view of phet maybe indians got it blacked out what ya see is just the feeders the main part is not there
UW -CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 18:19:25 N Lon : 60:00:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 924.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.6 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -57.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Quoting P451:
36HR IR Loop.



Wow! Incredible Xplosion !! Thank you for that gif.

Regards from Spain.
Hi Keeper,
That wave off of Africa is massive in that northern hemisphere view! It's not supposed to stay together all the way across the Atlantic. Not this time of year.


SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979. Jeff Masters
1814:


Um...

The SSTs near that wave are 28 to 30 cesius. It doesn't get much warmer than that!
Thad Allen says the blade is stuck and they are working to free it up now.
re 1815: I would agree. Thoses SST's seem high enough to me to support the wave.
BP rep Randy Prescott made a comment, “Louisiana isn’t the only place that has shrimp.” His office phone number is (713) 323-4093 his email is randy.prescott@bp.com. Someone should let him know, “BP isn’t the only place that has fuel for my car!”
Hi Kat2Nola!
Yes, he also says this in the blog...
...SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. JM
He also says the westerlies are now about normal for this time of year, so maybe counting on this to cool things off?! dunno.
New Blog
Hi Codaflow...yeah, add that to:
'The GOM is a really big place...'
and
'I just want my life back.'

Arrogance, like stupidity, knows no bounds.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Keeper,
That wave off of Africa is massive in that northern hemisphere view! It's not supposed to stay together all the way across the Atlantic. Not this time of year.


SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979. Jeff Masters


The SST are warm off Africa. Other climatic variables need to be present (less shear, etc.) that can allow for development in June. So it's possible for this season.
Good evening all