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The hurricane season of 2008 rings in with gender-confused Arthur

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2008

Buckle your seat belts, hurricane season is here! If the formation of Arthur on the day before hurricane season officially starts is any indication, we are in for a strange and unusual season. Alma, the Eastern Pacific tropical storm that hit Nicaragua Thursday, fell apart over the high mountains of Honduras. The remnants reorganized over the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning and became Arthur. Had Alma maintained her identity as a tropical depression during the crossing, she would have kept her name. As it was, Alma died, had a posthumous sex change, and became reborn as a man named Arthur. Only two tropical storms since 1949 have made the crossing from Pacific to Atlantic and maintained at least tropical depression status during the crossing:

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).

A Northeast Pacific tropical storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane Storm #10 and made landfall in Texas.

Seven tropical cyclones have survived the crossing from Atlantic to Pacific. I'm not sure how many cases have occurred like Alma/Arthur, where the remnants of a tropical storm reform into a new cyclone in different ocean basin.

Did Arthur form over land?
Arthur was also unusual in that the first advisory position for the storm was inland over northern Belize, about 30 miles from the ocean. Technically, the storm probably formed while the center was just offshore or right at the coast, but NHC did not name it until the center was already inland. There is one other case of NHC issuing its first advisory on a system while it was over land--Hurricane Agnes, which became a tropical depression on June 14, 1972, while centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since the Yucatan is a relatively narrow strip of land with very warm ocean waters on three sides, one can form a tropical depression centered over land here in rare cases, when the large-scale atmospheric patterns are very favorable for tropical storm formation.


Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Agnes of 1972, which formed over the Yucatan Peninsula.

The future of Arthur
The primary threat from Arthur is rain. Heavy rains of up to five inches have fallen over portions of Belize and Southeast Mexico over the past 24 hours, and rainfall amounts of up to ten inches may accumulate in some regions. None of the models are bringing the center of Arthur over the Gulf of Mexico, so the storm should decay into a tropical depression later today, and then dissipate by Monday. What would really make for an odd season would be if Arthur died over Mexico, its remains drifted over the Eastern Pacific, then re-formed into Tropical Storm Boris. Some of the computer models were suggesting this yesterday, but are no longer doing so today.

Would Arthur have been named 30 years ago?
Arthur is one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that may not have been recognized as a named storm thirty or more years ago. Arthur was named primarily based on measurements from a buoy that didn't exist 30 years ago, and from measurements from the QuikSCAT satellite, which didn't exist until 1999. There was one ship report that was used, though, and ship reports were heavily relied upon in the old days to name tropical storms.

Jeff Masters
Retreat
Retreat
End of the storm

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good evening everyone. I see NHC has not really said to much about the blob to the east of Arthur. Does anyone think a low is forming there. Many thought so this morning.
Hey! Tampa! Evenin sir, nice to see you
Hi Storm - hot & muggy up your way today?
By the way, since the govt. is doing away with analog signals for television. What will happen next year and a storm knocks out the cable? We have been trying to figure that one out. In the past we would just hook up the rabbit ears. Are we screwed? Our cable is usually the first thing to go.
Bay - that's a good question - what will happen? Is there an adapter we will need to have?
you can still use rabbit ears if you have a converter
Hello Baja how you been
I remember Fredric I was living in Puerto Rico with my parents. Even though it was just a tropical storm at that moment rain came through the windows. Everyone said it was going to be a big one. My dad said it was Florida bound assumming he was going on a donna path. Anyway we all knew where he blew in. Have a good one.
I remember Rick Sanchez. WSVN News Reporter.... Now big time news reporter.

I'll remember Andrew my entire life. My son will remember Katrina and Wilma for the rest of his. Hopefully my daughter, who was too young at the time, won't get lesson she will never forget. However, if history tells me anything, she most likely will. Part of growing up in South F-L-A.

We are prepared for this year and have a plan, we were prepared for Andrew, Katrina and Wilma. This is because we are a family that has had many generations grow up in South Florida. It doesn't make the actual event any more pleasant, but we know what to expect. It truly is the afermath that is the biggest PITA.
In miami almost all the local channels have radio partners - during wilma that's what we used. During Katrina I couldn't get anything - had to call someone out of the area to tell us what was going on.
504.

You can still use the rabbit ears but you are going to have to hook it up to a box that allows you to receve the new signal over the air. Your TV if it was made within the past 5 years most likly already has the box already installed inside the TV itself.
stormy weather for the southern winwards the next 24-36 hrs as the area of convection associated with a tropical wave moves in. the latest QuickScat does not show any low pressue area but winds of 25mph with possibly gusts in thunder showers.
Wow there is some real computer problems occurring with several sites it appears. The CIMSS site isn't working at all...what great timing....lol
Hey Storm was it hot here today or what. Don't remember June 1st like this.
Dak - you were prepared for Andrew? Between the fact that we only had about 30 hours notice, and the lack of supplies in the area, the best we could do was to secure our office.

My family had lived in Florida since the 70's, but they were all in denial - no big deal it would be over in a day. I kept trying to tell them a storm like this had never hit before, and we didn't know what would happen. Even I didn't know what would happen - but I knew enough to know that it wasn't going to be good.
Here is the FCC's website about Digital Switch over.

Digital TV Information from the FCC
Been fantabulous, Tampa...how bout yourself?
Thanks weathersp.
BAJA real good but, hot as hell in Tampa today.
StormW i just looped back the last visible Satellite from the interest East of Arthur.....what the heck am i seeing that NHC is not seeing....that sure looks like a very defined COC in open water to me....wow
Scorcher up this way too. We went over 90 today. Sure would be nice to get the seabreeze kicking up *sighs*
BAJA where you located at.
It got dark and ominous today - but it was just a tease - no rain. I sure miss our afternoon thunder storms. Seems like its been a while since they did it with any regularity.
522. TampaSpin 9:00 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
StormW i just looped back the last visible Satellite from the interest East of Arthur.....what the heck am i seeing that NHC is not seeing....that sure looks like a very defined COC in open water to me....wow


Could you provide some reference coordinates Tampa? That would help so much in trying to respond.
Michael i can see the different levels of clouds spinning under the heavy stuff and the last imiage just before sunset appeared almost like a fight of 2 low level clouds.
The NHC might issue their last advisory on Arthur. I don't see any GFDL or HWRF runs.
Up in the panhandle...Panama City Beach
On a side note, look just how huge the eye from Nakri is on visible satellite imagery. Quite an impressive storm. Just thank goodness noone got hit with this storm.
528. cchsweatherman 9:05 PM EDT on June 01, 2008

CCHS just to the east of Cozumel.
Hi all
If you go to this NASA link and loop it at least 12 times and you can see the last pic before the sun goes down.NASA
531. Drakoen

NCEP has been having computer problems today and the 18Z GFS was 1 1/2 hours late, so the other models may be delayed also.
540. ATS3
cchs think he is the best
If the circulation of Arthur dies but the convection of him remains and develops in the Carrib, then this would have a different name right??
Link GFS at it again lol
cchs is actually quite good...
Tampa you cant go stright form the site it doesn't work like that..

You have to link the ACTUAl image not what there is on the adress bar.
536. Michaael 8:10 PM CDT on June 01, 2008

Hmmm... Forgot your handle?
This will be a CAT 2 By Wednesday.
542. Stormhank

CMC has it at 12z too. Its getting close enough to have it be considered.
549. JRRP
Arthur could be alma again
550. ATS3
cchs will take all the data sat pic models upper level cond etc then try to determine
the outcome he not a guesser
544. weathersp 9:13 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
Tampa you cant go stright form the site it doesn't work like that..

You have to link the ACTUAl image not what there is on the adress bar.


Try it again i fixed it.
There's Stormtop! Wondered when he gonna show back up.
arthur n alma may produce bertha LOL j/k
thank you cchs for mentioning Nakri Not many storms last this long
557. HGFL2
could they BIRTH BERTHA?? j/k =)
Much better Tampaspin.. Thanks!
The 11pm update from NHC has to speak about this thing to the EAst of the Yucatan Pen.
a storm of Biblical proportions....90E begat Alma who begat Arthur...who begat Bertha...who begat Boris...
boris will be begat by berthas left overs LOL
Tampa...the Yucatan what?!?!
lol press if that happens I'll buy a hat and eat it
Bertha isn't forming we need to wait for a really big storm to form so we can call it big Bertha
563. presslord 9:25 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
Tampa...the Yucatan what?!?!

OOPS.......lol i fixed it....LMAO
looks to be some turning happening in area se of windwards maybe low tryin to form there
as per 858 wv enhance image
Tampa & Press - you just made my day!!
QuickScat of the tropical wave se of s america

Link
Press, I SAW that but I wasnt going to comment LOL!
*559

I doubt the NHC would mention that area due to unfavorable shear in that area. Also, there isn't anything organizing.
Interesting.......
Current Weather Conditions:
Roatan, Honduras
(MHRO) 16-19N 086-31W 2M

Conditions at Jun 01, 2008 - 09:01 PM EDT Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 KT)
Pressure (altimeter) 29.80 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob MHRO 020101Z AUTO 09027KT ///// Q1009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 PM (1) Jun 01 29.80 (1009) E 31
8 PM (0) Jun 01 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) E 29
Hey Everybody...

Some of you who live on Florida's Treasure Coast,(Stuart, Jupiter, Port St. Lucie, Ft. Pierce) may have read this article in today's edition of the Stuart News. I thought everyone else would enjoy and have a laugh reading this as well.

"Dr. William Gray, you know what today is.

I can only imagine how you spend June 1, the "official" start of hurricane season.

Gleefully cackling as you pore over sea-surface temperature charts while spinning the dials on some mega-computer that spits out yet another version of your annual hurricane forecast, revised up or down for the 10th time — and that's just since yesterday afternoon.

High-fiving the assistant whose job it is to work the Ouija board and include its predictions.

I have to say, I'm disappointed.

Not that the number of hurricanes you predict changes faster than the price for regular unleaded.

What hurts is you didn't see fit to take my advice about land crabs. Aren't you supposed to be "the world's foremost hurricane expert?"

Six months ago — plenty of time for you to incorporate these methods — I wrote how the Miccosukee and Seminole Indians over the millennia perfected their own methods of forecasting.

The Micosukkee's reportedly watched the bloom on the sawgrass in the Everglades. Lots of bloom meant lots of storms.

If the Seminoles saw a lot of land crabs skittering around, they knew it was time to stock up on palm fronds.

I did a bit of research and sure enough — just before hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in September '04 — there were news stories about unusually high numbers of land crabs, swarming the way our snowbirds do whenever there's a free food stand at Publix.

And land crabs were seen in unusual numbers before Hurricane Wilma paid her visit in '05.

But in '06 and '07, guess what? Land crabs were scarce. And we weren't hit with any hurricanes.

Try as I might, Dr. Gray, I couldn't find any mention of land crabs in your most recent forecast.

So I called the guy who first told me about the whole land crab thing.

Mike Mucci's in his 60s and has lived in Martin County since 1949.

I asked him if he'd been watching for land crabs and had any predictions.

"I don't go in to the woods with a pith helmet stalking them, if that's what you mean," Mucci said.

"But I do go out Route 76 to Indiantown for breakfast once in a while and we haven't seen any land crab splotches," Mucci said.

Don't laugh. If a Cray supercomputer is more accurate than land crab splotches it has yet to be proven.

"I think we're going to have a typical year for South Florida, a couple of scares, maybe a mild hurricane," Mucci said.

"I'm not going to quote numbers, but I will tell you this: last year I said I didn't think any major hurricanes would hit South Florida and they didn't. We had two major ones hit Mexico but not here," Mucci said.

But because ours is a litigious society, he stressed the following disclaimer:

"Keep in mind this is for fun and games. Land crabs can probably be wrong, just like a computer," Mucci said.

Maybe so, Mike.

But I know whose forecast I'm paying attention to."

Pretty funny stuff.

this is my 3rd year here...and that is officially the funniest thing I've seen on the blog....
574. presslord 9:32 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
this is my 3rd year here...and that is officially the funniest thing I've seen on the blog....

why thank you Press.......ROFLMAO
I guess freedom of speech really does exist on this blog.......lol
good evening all
456 what is your take on the thing.
546. STORMTTOP 1:17 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
This will be a CAT 2 By Wednesday.

Afternoon or Morning?
evenin 456
just got latest 928 image it looks to be a turning startin convection building slowly or maintaining
rain coming for ya pottery
agreed keeper i am seeing convection starting to get a little stronger
I realize NHC is not functioning 100% with the computer problems they are having, but surly they see what we are seeing......unless my sight is getting bad. I don't think i have ever seen a blob that organized for a day not to turn into something.
Press, perhaps Tampa meant this.
JPritch how you doing man......give me a break.....so my abbrevations wasn't very wise.....lol
y'all are killin' me....my wife and kids are sitting here in the living room watchin a movie wondering why I'm laughing so hard I'm cryin'....
456 what ya see out there se of windwards
it looks to be getting a little better organize at the moment
Does anyone have a function site for current shear and steering flows. Everything im looking at is not functioning.
BTW...please let the record show...I asked about the gfs south of Cuba thing this morning and someone told me I was crazy.....
Pottery, are you there? Finally got some decent showers in San Fernando today....and looks like more are coming.
590. presslord 9:46 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
BTW...please let the record show...I asked about the gfs south of Cuba thing this morning and someone told me I was crazy.....


Where was it located at and watch your spelling......lol

589. TampaSpin

CIMSS works for me. Link
Has anyone seen the clump of thunderstorms over africa that are about to come off. If we are getting strong waves coming off this early don't want to see what it looks like come august.
Tampa, it made me laugh, and I didn't mean to make you feel bad about it. I was just being silly.

That IS in the Yucatan, btw. It's outside Lol Tun cave, south of Merida, and it's originally from a nearby cult that worshipped such things. LOL
it was to the east of some protruding Mexican real estate....
It is working now the site was down a few minutes ago.....it went limp......lol
I am dying laughing.....
By afternoon.
tropical wave moving in on the islands. there is a weak midlevel circulation near 8n 53w. wave moving west at 15mph and should start affecting islands during the course of the day monday
586. nrtiwlnvragn 8:44 PM CDT on June 01, 2008

LOL...
578. TampaSpin 9:36 PM AST on June 01, 2008
456 what is your take on the thing.


Refresh my memory...arthur or wave.
National Hurricane Center - Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC Jun 02 2008

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad surface trough extends southwestward from the Pacific Coast of Southeastern Mexico and Northern Central America for several hundred miles. There are very few signs of organization at this time and development in this area..if any is expected to be slow to occur

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=========================================
LOW (<20%)
Just for consideration ... particularly those who are new to FL. There could be some truth to the crabs. They instinctively head inland for higher ground when a storm is approaching; simply as a survival tactic. To my knowledge, science does not know how they can tell. My guess would be some pattern to the air pressure changes, but who knows. I've never found a crab that would talk to me :)
604. dennist1 1:58 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
..... My guess would be some pattern to the air pressure changes, but who knows. I've never found a crab that would talk to me :)
Action: | Ignore User


Lucky guy... I married one, and she talks alot :(
588. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:44 PM AST on June 01, 2008
456 what ya see out there se of windwards
it looks to be getting a little better organize at the moment


I saw it early b4 i went churh..let me check it. I know its wave.
600. stoormfury 9:55 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
tropical wave moving in on the islands. there is a weak midlevel circulation near 8n 53w. wave moving west at 15mph and should start affecting islands during the course of the day monday


That low looked good yesterday and even better now....But steering winds show it should hit South America if they are correct.

all the old Captains around here (Charleston) are predicting something this year...all sorts of things they point to, like the crabs, sea weed...I don't know what all....I give them a high degree of credibility...
Was the Crabs running inland today? PressLord you should know about Crabs....lol
How do you know my ex-wife?
Greetings all. Back from the football. T&T-o England 3.

That stuff just to the east of us here in Trini is forecast to bring thunder storms on Tuesday, Looks to be a fair call.
There is some spin
starting there, and the system looks pretty well organised.


605

lol, good to see humor taking over now and not arguing
614. DDR
Hey pottery
I see rain coming,i know you do to :D
Yeah, DDR, had a shower around lunchtime today too. More coming for sure. Just in time man.
603. HadesGodWyvern 1:58 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
National Hurricane Center - Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
0:00 AM UTC Jun 02 2008

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad surface trough extends southwestward from the Pacific Coast of Southeastern Mexico and Northern Central America for several hundred miles. There are very few signs of organization at this time and development in this area..if any is expected to be slow to occur

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=========================================
LOW (<20%)


Oh boy...is the Alma turn Arthur system preparing to capture Boris too?
=)
sorry for your loss pottery but you will get the rains you have been calling for. althogh the wave looks orgarnised and a semblance of a mid level circulation , recent QuickSCAT SHOWS NO llc
so...Is the thing off the ...well....south of Cuba...that gfs is hinting...related to Alma/Arthur, etc...or is it a distinct occurrence?
OK Stoorm. I have not checked the sats etc yet on the system.

DDR, how was Paria yesterday?
I'm not gonna lie but that area there is quite impressive and after looking at some data I cant believe I missed it.

Its a tropical wave along 53/54W south of 14N moving towards the west-northwest. Statellite derived winds, QuikSCAT and two surface observations indicate a highly amplified feature at the surface producing 30-40 knot winds. The area of disturbed weather lies under favorable upper winds with excellent poleward outflow. The 12Z CMC does develop this area into a weak system and moves it towards the NW into the SE Caribbean. Conditions at that time are expected to be unfavorable for development as it encounters unfavroable winds and this is relfeced in the model guidance.
its all good man
Don't think anything is there YET. But it might occur. LOOk at this. This does not show a 2nd spin.
Good night all. Thanks for the complements ADT and presslord. I will be back tomorrow Am with a full Tropical Update and will do a complete site update.
Thanks for the info., 456.
30-40 knots wind ??!!!
620. Weather456 10:15 PM EDT on June 01, 2008

456 that wave looks good but, Steering flow has it hitting South America in my opinion.
For those who are interested, Trinidad weather can be monitored by entering ' piarco ' in the search box, top of this page.
Barbados weather at 'grantley adams '
627. DDR
Hey..you know that coconut tree or what
yea thats as far as i went,my family and i was on that beach,i forgot the name.
theres some slight cyclonic turning starting to happen within it now too 456
Presslord That little thing off of cuba you are talking about might be Alma & Aurthors baby. You just never know.LOL
Sheri
good analysis 456 i did idicate tha in an earlier posting. quite impressive feature. as DR M said earlier this 2008 season is looking like a strange one. is this a warning of things to come down the road
DDR. I've passed that way a lot over the years. Used to do the whole walk to Matelot. Now, I take a boat to Tacarib.
629. catastropheadjuster 10:24 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
Presslord That little thing off of cuba you are talking about might be Alma & Aurthors baby. You just never know.LOL
Sheri


Only if no protection wan't used......LMAO
620. Ok, that's what we've been talking about!
Anyway all. I am checking out now. Need some sleep. I'll check in with this thing in the morning.


Damn. That is a very impressive wave with obvious cyclonic turning and even outflow developing. This may be our next tropical system if it continues moving WNW. Will have to do further analysis tomorrow.
I forgot to mention the satellite observations and yes their is weak cyclonic turning with this feature. If it can maintain that organization it has a shot of becoming a depression in the near term (nothing really stopping it). Its future remains uncertain with the landmass of SA and wind shear in the Caribbean.
That wave is actually looking better every satellie update....wow
Tampaspin Know that is funny, I'm LMAO.
Tampa you live in tampa sorry if it's sounds like a dum question with your handle tampaspin. I was born and lived in tampa off of hillsbough Ave dangit i can't spell it right. I lived on Arden Ave and use to ride our bikes to Busch Gardens on Sat and stay all day long. I went to St Francis Episcopal Church and School. Sorry about the mini story, I was just wondering.
Sheri
I just cannot guage the number of impressive waves thus far.


The latest CIMSS 850mb Vorticity Maps confirm surface circulation developing with the tropical wave. Wind shear needs to relax big time ahead for this to develop further.
638. catastropheadjuster 10:32 PM EDT on June 01, 2008

I live in the West Chase area going toward Oldsmar if you know where that is at.
CCHS and 456 if you look at POST 622 you can see the Wave also.
I see the GFS kaleidescope wnats to give the northern gulf coast a system in about 10 days.

Images valid for 11 June, 6 UTC.
SLP and surface winds:


10-meter Streamlines:
Drak and all the people in here, I want to make
this perfectly clear and concise, that in no
way that in my forecast prediction did I say a
storm would hit NO. in the next 7 days. What I
did say was the ingredients and recipe were
coming together and a storm would get into
the gulf and end up striking the LA/Ms/Al
coast. I also said that a trough digging
down from the rockies on thursday would intensify the high pressure system over
the texas area, protecting them from this
storm. Let me make it perfectly clear once
again, and its also in my post that I posted
friday, that I did not predict any cat5 to hit
the NO area in the next 7 days. I did say SST
are becoming more favorable to support a Cat3
in the NW Caribbean and GOM. SSP have fallen
in the Western Caribbean in last few days. All
of this is coming together for something to
develop in the NW Caribbean and move into the
north central GOM sometime late Friday. I will give additional info. as it comes into my office. 2140.....stormkat


Nothing may come of it, but yep, this area is where I've had some concerns for earlier than usual development.
Arthur is now officially dead as the NHC will issue their last advisory on him soon.
Atmo....that was some timing ya had there with that post....
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...17.4 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
MLC why you gotta bring it up by my house? Draw that line somewhere else. LOL
Sheri
Since the models are predicting in days time for that system off of Cuba to develop, does anyone know what the wind shear will be then? Also, maybe this wave we're talking about will aid to the development of the system down the road...
651. JLPR
before coming in here I went to the NHC sat page and loaded a central Atl. loop and I said out loud what the &^$@&^is that area above South America! =P then I realized it was a tropical wave =P
It does look impressive and it should get even more impressive with DMAX but if it moves west, its done it need a jump to the north. But the problem is that to the north the shear is stronger. I don't know I think this wave isn't supposed to develop =P.
*sits back, presses F5 and waits for responses*
=D
Just wondering that myself catastrophadjuster.... Matter of fact that is just to close for me aswell....


:0)
arthur be gone
stormcat just wondering what kind of office do you have? Just thought i would ask.
JLPR steering flow has it moving into S. Amer.
Taco I would be on the west is the best side what side would you be on?
Sheri
wave se of the southern windwards there seems to be an area CDO

Link
658. JRRP

10knots of wind shear
659. JLPR
653. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:49 AM GMT on Junio 02, 2008
then we are back to blob watching =)

655. TampaSpin 2:49 AM GMT on Junio 02, 2008
well lets watch it before it moves inland =P
Sheri its an office surrounded with brick and
windows and its on a street that does not
flood. Now I hope I answered your question.
Now lets get back to the main business....stormkat
Nice answer ther StormKAt.....lol
system to se of windwards iam pegging it
mark 8.4n/53.4w
Re: 635. cchsweatherman 2:29 AM GMT on June 02, 2008.

In a year of "firsts", it would be interesting to see if a TC has ever formed so close to the NE South American Coast in June, or if ever at any time.

Climatology: All Recorded North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific hurricanes, 1851-2007
666. JLPR
StormKat even thought I disagree a bit with the way you make your predictions I was wondering if you think June and July will be active in terms of tropical activity.
weatherblog....refer to post 644 I already posted Friday night IKE and LJ both saw it
and they know what I am talking about...
enough of that, lets get on with the business....stormkat
I still think stormkat wins the "PA" award
JLPR, which region are you referring to....
GOM, Caribbean, or Atlantic..if you want to
talk about the Cape Verde season my forecast
will not be out on until the later part of June....I have to see how many dust storms
come off of the African Coast and the SSTs
and SSPs are progressing.....stormkat
PressLord we know what the "P" stands for....LMAO
Sheri....please watch the words you use
in this room, it is being monitored carefully...thank you....stormkat
20 knts of shear lay to the north of the wave off SA, but does anyone know if it will improve?
682. JLPR
I was wondering about the Caribbean. In the area of The Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico =)
Photobucket

....looks fairly "tropical" for June 1, heh?
Honestly, can't we all just ignore stormkat? Then he would go away.
Orcasystems....I am not interested in an award,
I am here to save lives....stormkat
Whoa! Look down off the coast of South America!
@ 635 posted shows the photo. Shes also going NW.
456, I think were in for a very active Cape Verde Season.
687. JLPR
looks too tropical for June 1st MLC =P



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY
MLC you got that right......
Oh i see know we have a stormttop well I guess stormkat&stormyeyes had stormttop sounds pretty good.
hi guys, anything new?
Moonlight, it looks like late July...hmm..
Doesn't current steering patterns have the South American wave moving south west?
MLC look at Africa...........WOW
guys I am very sorry. he is ignored. I want say no more.
Sheri
Hi all. How's everyone tonight?


Shear expected to relax 5-10 kts in the area.
693. CatastrophicDL 11:10 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
Doesn't current steering patterns have the South American wave moving south west?


Yes it does and did you have any more kids since last year.....lol
Will the NHC eventually mention the wave off of SA or the disturbance in the NW Caribbean?
Tampa, Good to see you and MLC - it would be a medical miracle if that could happen again!
*698

Moonlight, the picture you posted isn't showing up lol Which area are you talking about?
706. JLPR
cchs looks like a anticlone may be trying to form in top of the tropical wave no?
cat, did you get my email?
CDL great looking family you do have. They don't stay young and small long....ENJOY them this small as long as you can.....i miss mine that small now. :(
Koritheman....Then quit commenting on what
I say...thats what they have the delete
button for....stormkat
area se of windwards shows convection building and a tightening up up system overall as per 1112edt unenhance ir 11 micron image
mark 8.6n/53.5w movement wnw
Sheri....Thank the lord. stormkat
I fixed it weatherblog.

OH, and hey, CDL!
Photobucket

Upper level winds suggest rotation and outflow.
Looking at several computer models, most are hinting something to enter the GOM in about 4-5 days. Low pressure is diffiently in the Carribean from Arthur.
713. jphurricane2006 11:20 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
the NHC doesnt describe any turning with that wave at 55W


Remember their update was at 8 pm EST.
there wasnt jp the slight turning has started the last few frames
MLC,
that area near SA has good divergence the convergence needs improvement though.
SMMC, I got it and replied. NHC doesn't mention vorticity but CIMSS shows lower and mid level vorticity.
Hi jp... i'm your biggest fan. I'm so excited you are here! lol
I think the area east of the Antilles WILL go north of south america, I just don't see it going to the south southwest.

Yeah, and I also think it will develop and become bertha. I'll eat two crows if it doesn't develop.
The wave looks like a depression. Bertha, anyone?...
Anyone take a look at the upper level winds in the mid west? My Lord, "that's cookin"
*726

LOL
Keeper....I refer you to post 644...stormkat
LINK would help.
Also I think the trough to the west of california will pick up the remnants of Arthur and push the half-dead system northward and it will regenerate into a tropical storm. Either Arthur again, or Cristobal.
722. jphurricane2006 3:24 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
it will mostly be a rainmaker for SA

pottery will likely get some rain from this, steering doesnt indicate it will go north of SA


Yes, but it seems like it's moving in a WNW/NW direction right now. It might miss South America.
Agreed, sporte! And, JP's right in that steering indicates a move towards SA. Convergence could improve, as it's really just getting going. This morning or last night (can't remember which) that area looked to be a thin line of convection and it must have been higher. I'm thinking dimax will improve t'storm activity at the sfc. And, then again, it may just go poooooffft! lol
Texas will see rain soon.
727. smmcdavid 11:27 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
Hi jp... i'm your biggest fan. I'm so excited you are here! lol


Tell us your kidding nobody like JP....he's a grade above StormKitten....lol
I am here to save lives cuz I'm the official source of info. Weather456

Also I created a new handle so I can appraise myself for saving people lives. Weather456

In 2005, I was awarded the nobel prize cuz I saved lives during Katrina. New Orleans listened to me rather than the NHC. Weather456

I make wild predictions then leave when they dont come true. Weather456

But enough about me, lets get down to business. Weather456
SpaceThrilla1207, I even got to admit that's a tad too out there...LOL but you never know.
and thus the 1st "blob" forms...
when could we see 91L???
Aww Tampa, that's not very nice. He didn't even see my post...
stormttop, It is very possible that
Texas will see rain in the next 24-48hrs.
stormkat
456 LMAO
Guys, I don't know where else I can get so irritated and entertained at the same time!
I think it will definately miss south america. Development...I'm not so sure about that.


And yes, development IS possible...Dennis anyone?

STORMTTOP...nice alt, eye.
*lmao, Weather456

Sad, but true...

*By the way, JP, all it needs is a small continuation of it's WNW or NW movement and it'll miss SA. I think; that's what I'm hearing.
I don't know why everyone thinks the South American wave is going to go north of South America. jp is right; steering currents clearly indicate that the wave will go into South America.

Image isn't working, but the steering indicates South America is where the wave is going to end up.
The wave near the SA has no chance of development...its under 10 knots of shear...way too strong and besides its June 1, the hurricane season does not begin yet.
Oohhh right, I guess a surface trough plowing down into the GOM wouldn't have any effect on the moisture in the Caribbean?
JP your my Orlando connection. Everyone knows im kidding..........
jp... funny!
By the way, I'll be contacting Dr. Masters tomorrow morning on some private matters. Just thought I would give fair warning.
747. stormkat 3:32 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
stormttop, It is very possible that
Texas will see rain in the next 24-48hrs.
stormkat

Schizophrenic? LOL
I post a steering flow map at 607 and showed everyone the wave should impact South America. Things can change tho..garbage in garbage out.
Guys just looking at the floater on Arthur, is there any chance he could split and the easterly portion skirt the Yucatan and end up in the GOM?
Alright, I guess if you guys say so. Chance of development with wave near SA equals 0%. And, Weather456, when does 10 knts of shear prevent development? But, I understand it only being June 1st though.


How can a wave that extends to 13N move into South America? OMG Just focusing on convection. U can really tell who has a keyboard and who has the brains.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif
thelmores....refer to my post 644, lets
get down to the business at hand..stormkat
Thelmores - Disassociative Identity Disorder!

CCHS - Hi how are you!
775. JLPR
The wave near the SA has no chance of development...its under 10 knots of shear...way too strong and besides its June 1, the hurricane season does not begin yet.

This is joke right Weather456 please add a lol
lol =P


....and for the times when the crow is a lil hard to choke down, well there's....
777. beell
Photobucket
The wave near the SA has no chance of development...its under 10 knots of shear...way too strong and besides its June 1, the hurricane season does not begin yet.

Sarcasm?
G'nite all; u guys are getting too complicated for me . . . LOL

As a nightcap, How do u know the tropical cyclone season has arrived in Nassau?

The power goes out, even though there is no storm and the daytime high barely makes it to 90 . . . LOL

See u in the a.m.!


...and when it just "makes you feel happy" then there's Sheryl Crowe! ;P
LOL, Beell. You beat me to her! Love that picture though! ;P
Guys, I wouldn't put faith in the models showing a tropical storm/hurricane off of Cuba and ino the GOM. The SST's are favorable for development, but anything above a tropical storm would take slow time to occur. Also, I doubt wind shear will be all that too favorable; plus, the models are usually wrong..
CCHS - you have mail! :o)
JLPR, yea just kiddin around.
Good night peeps...
Have a good sleep "back up!" ;P
MLC you can come up with the coolest stuff. How are ya tonight?
Sheri
hey what do yall think of the gfs run?
The wave near the SA has no chance of development...its under 10 knots of shear...way too strong and besides its June 1, the hurricane season does not begin yet.

Really?! LOL...had no clue this was a joke. That shows the humor I have. :)
792. beell
Post 777 mlc...
beat ya.
lol
780. jphurricane2006 11:45 PM AST on June 01, 2008
yeah 456 and the top of the wave axis is under 30-40 knots of shear and is increasing

I do see your point though


What? None of that information is true.

And u didnt get what I was saying:

I am sayin the entire wave axis cannot move into SAmerica.
LOL, Sheri! I'm an exodus in nowhere, a paradox in a paradigm....and some other stuff I've been called, too! LOL
795. beell
ok, I see 782.
456, MLC or Tampa anyone with greater knowledge than me - looking at the floater on Arthur, is there any chance he could split and the easterly portion skirt the Yucatan and end up in the GOM?
798. beell
Night cowboy and all.
Getting while the gettin's good
Am I nuts or did that trough just break through the ridge? Upper level flow from the Mid West took a sharp left towards Alabama.
780. jphurricane2006 11:45 PM AST on June 01, 2008
yeah 456 and the top of the wave axis is under 30-40 knots of shear and is increasing


Jp, at first I thought u was being conservative but now ur being willfull. I liked u much better b4 u turned into what ever u are now.

Later
782. Beell, I know!

Photobucket
Where is the system that the GFS shows coming up into the Gulf within the next 5 to 6 days...i thought maybe that is what yall are speaking of...

and everyone in here is entitled to their own opinion...you never know what can happen...i noticed that all the people in here that are talking with certainty (not mentioning any names)....were the same people saying Arthur wouldnt develop or even get passed Depression status when it almost became a hurricane...goes to show you that anything can happen...god bless
whats going on now
796. CDL, the way this thing has been acting, I think Rhode Island better be prepared! ;P (nah, not really, if anything just if the trough comes through and pics up some rain, we might be lucky!)

Have a good sleep, Beell!
RE: 751
Just a review...
Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Dennis
(pdf):
"Dennis formed from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 29 June. The system began to organize on 2 July with the formation of a broad area of low pressure with two embedded swirls of low clouds. Convection increased near both low-level centers on 3 July. The western system moved through the southern Windward Islands on 4 July and lost organization over the southeastern Caribbean. The eastern system continued to develop, becoming a tropical depression over the southern Windward Islands near 1800 UTC 4 July."

Dennis never drifted along the South American coastline.

Not saying that development is not possible, but from a climatological perspective, it would be another "first" this year.
796. CatastrophicDL 11:54 PM EDT on June 01, 2008
456, MLC or Tampa anyone with greater knowledge than me - looking at the floater on Arthur, is there any chance he could split and the easterly portion skirt the Yucatan and end up in the GOM?


As long as thunder storms presist there its possible but, shear is very high for much to develop it would be slow. Steering flow also would take it currently toward Mexico or South Texas.
Good night all see ya in the morning. Have a good sleep.
Sheri
802. louisianaboy444 3:56 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
Where is the system that the GFS shows coming up into the Gulf within the next 5 to 6 days...i thought maybe that is what yall are speaking of...

and everyone in here is entitled to their own opinion...you never know what can happen...i noticed that all the people in here that are talking with certainty (not mentioning any names)....were the same people saying Arthur wouldnt develop or even get passed Depression status when it almost became a hurricane...goes to show you that anything can happen...god bless


It reached 40 mph at peak intensity.
809. JLPR
I'm out =) Until tomorrow and
buenas noches =)


These folk waited a lil late to heed the evac warnings!
Someone please correct me if i'm wrong but i could have sworn Arthur got up around the 65 mph range in terms of winds? Remember seeing that somewhere
181 days to go
MLC was that StormKat in the background......LMAO
811. louisianaboy444 4:00 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
Someone please correct me if i'm wrong but i could have sworn Arthur got up around the 65 mph range in terms of winds? Remember seeing that somewhere


Um, I think you're talking about Alma, not Arthur. lmao
Tampa...I will say this one more time to
you, refer to my post 644 and you have
a great night..stormkat
Tampa, I was aware of the current steering patterns. The floater images look like the most easterly portion is breaking off and developing it's own circulation. CIMSS is showing the split and vorticity but at mid-levels rather than low levels.
oooo yeah you absolutely right huh...sorry got confused..actually i meant to say that people were saying Alma wouldn't get passed depression status sorry for the blunder
stormkat dont forgets the meds you need em


Photobucket

I've been to this "drive thru" often, but after Katrina one could literally drive thru it - gutted the whole structure.
Keeper....refer to my post 644, you just might
learn something, and you have a good night...stormkat
I dont need meds drugs would destroy my forcasting perceptions.

there will be 3 CAT 5's this season

817. CatastrophicDL 12:03 AM EDT on June 02, 2008

There will be a wake of low pressure in the area of Arthur in the Carribean. I do think something will develop in that area in the next 7 days.
817. CatastrophicDL 4:03 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
Tampa, I was aware of the current steering patterns. The floater images look like the most easterly portion is breaking off and developing it's own circulation. CIMSS is showing the split and vorticity but at mid-levels rather than low levels.


From a quick observation, convection has died down in the NW Caribbean. Plus, wind shear is currently prohibiting any development that will try to occur in the next 24-48 hours. I think, though, in 3-4 days the wind shear will calm down and allow some development in which the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC are picking up on. Just my opinon.
Keeper, I'm gonna say this just one more
time, before I have to put you on ignore.
Refer to my post 644, and if you don't
have anything useful to say to me, don't
say nothing at all, and you have a nice
night...stormkat


Here's a closeup. Someone propped Ronald up.
i predict a guy will come on here and predict 3 cat 5s this year
your an doorknob huh

tampa where do you think it will head once if it develops?
Lol stormkat put a blindfold on turn off the lights and throw darts...you'll hit the spot eventually
831. JRRP
nothing
*827

That's sad. :(
Orcasystems,

ROFL!!
829. StormThug 12:10 AM EDT on June 02, 2008

tampa where do you think it will head once if it develops?


Somewhere in the GOM.......lol heck i don't know thats way to far out. There just alot of things coming together to create something in that area.......hard to say how big the Bermuda high will be 7 days out.
Thanks Tampa and Weather. Keeper I concur!
louisianaboy, refer to my post 644 and maybe
you'll learn something. This is not a game
son, this is serious business and you ought
to treat it like that. Have a nice night...stormkat
stormkat you are the grand king of the blogs all hail great king stormkat tha saver of thosands of lives to which we owe everything all hail the great one
now flock right off you flocking idiot
EUMETSAT wATL twave loop shows convection moving northwards. (takes a minute to load, click "24" frames and hit play)
Is there anyway admin can control how many handles a person gets in here? Those people who like to hear themselves talk take up too much time and space.
Watch personal attacks, nobody needs to get banned for idoit whomever this might pretain to.......lol
Oh, CDL, the "ignore" buttons work just wonderfully!
Be nice now Keeper.. he has won two awards tonight.

"PA" and "OLS"
"Pompous ***" and "Obnoxious Little ****"
you no what i hate to say this but i think stormtop could be right on some in there that we could see 3 cat 5 this year not say we will but we could if evere thing comes in to play this year then oh nos
It prolly won't do anything, JP. I'd be more concerned about the tail end of a trough in the next week or so. Have a good sleep!
Re:815. jphurricane2006
Gotta agree jp, it's in a unfavorable position and headed into an unfavorable environment, at a climatologically unfavorable time of the year.

I am all for keeping an eye on things, but I would be very surprised to see development from this system in the near future, if at all.
MLC thats a cool link. Thanks
Thanks MLC, I am afraid I am going to have to resort to that. This is ridiculous.
Getting a little parched here in south Louisiana...hopefully that tropical low forecasted by the GFS 6 days out can play out and bring us some rain...hoping its not an organized tropical system though...
After this I really don't wanna talk about this anymore, but it is so obvious stormkat is stormyeyes. He thinks by calling himself a full grown women with a different handle will gain him respect. If he wants respect, he should start showing respect around here, and people won't disregard his opinions. End of story...
Weather - check out posts 819 and 823 - he is also stormttop. He can't keep his handles straight.
Gotta go pin the eye lids shut for awhile......OMG i used to bad words......lol..nite everyone.
theres like three of them in there
G'night Tampa! See you tomorrow!
me myself and i
later tampa
weatherblog, I just don't know what to say to
you except to refer you to post 644. Are you
for real, what is the real business in here
man. Get a life and get on those books and
learn about the weather and you have a nice
evening...stormkat
KEEPEROFTHEGATE, lol yes they're everywhere!
hes kinda like the blog joke
lol lol lol lol lol
Yea Sheri I'm SUPERMAN,DR. MASTERS AND PRESIDENT BUSH all in one. Now you have
a nice evening sweety...stormkat
stormkat, I already read post 644. Plus, I think I'm more knowledged about weather than most people my age.
I used my ignore button for the first time tonight. It is wonderful! I didn't know it removed all previous irritating posts!
Have a good sleep, TS!
There's a couple of dozen or so really good posters here, and there's SEVERAL more good folk, too. But, I don't mind using the ignore button on any of the junk and ruckus-natured posters at all. I just hope the feature doesn't run out of capacity!
Okay all you good people have a goodnight...
stormkat out
MLC, maybe I am missing something but the NHC discussion says there is WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING associated with the wave at 27W, but when I look at my CIMSS link it is showing well defined vorticity at 500mb as opposed to 850mb. What do I need to learn here or do I need a better link?
all hail king stormrat the great one is now leaving
Tropical wave may be up to something...
CDL, the CIMSS site has been having some trouble. I love the site and use it often, but it's been outtawhack the last couple of days. It says they're doing some stuff to it on their original site page. I figure they're getting the kinks out of everything. So, is RAMSDIS - they're moving to some new beta system, too.
MLC, so what is another good site to use to check vorticity?
870. Try that picture with this: width=350 height=400 all immediately before the word "alt" in the sequence. It should straighten out your dimension problems, weatherblog. May have to play with the numbers a bit, but you'll get the hang of it. Typically, with a good landscape photo width=540 height=480 are decent numbers to use.
Dry air- minimal
SST's- supportive
Organization/Convection- heavy

Land interaction- possibility
Shear- a bit unfavorable north of the wave
Climatology- only June 1st

50/50
MLC by the way I agree there are some outstanding posters on here. I've been lurking for a while and posting on here for a year now and many people have kindly taken the time to help educate me even more. So a special thank you to yourself and Adrain, Drak, 456, and others too numerous to mention. I have really appreciated it!
Moonlight, thanks a lot! I'll try it.
Don't look now but storms are really starting to fire up again right along the east coast of the Yucatan. It just doesn't want to go away. It's like Jason or Freddy...you can't kill it...lol.
Too, CDL, I haven't looked closely at that wave this evening, either. At one time, despite the rotation, what it's lacking is convection, like their might be some dry air or no lift. Let me check it out.

On vorticity I use this link (still with CIMSS), but I use the main site mostly.
OU, I think the portion of Arthur on the east side of the peninsula is splitting off. The CIMSS shows a split with defined vorticity at mid-levels.
*877

I see...But, wind shear will kill this thing. It's just a matter of time.
Hope I don't get "banned" seems to be a lot of it going around.
Orcasystems:
Victoria, I'm guessing. How did you get the photo with the bird in your mouth? Yuchk!
Uh oh I just noticed the red letters above: "These rules will be strictly enforced." See ya in a couple days
Around 30 knts of shear in the NW Caribbean:
Convection associated with Arthur is really firing up in the Pacific. OU if a remnant of Arthur stays in the CRBN I don't think it will get a chance to do much, but remaining moisture may help enhance convection of a new low in a few days.
*883
CatastrophicDL, I agree with what your stating.


TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY

On that earlier link, CDL, you can see 200, 500, 700 and 850 mb vorticity.
I got it MLC. Thanks! Oaxaca Mexico has got to be getting drenched. What is a good site for rainfall info?
Good night everybody still here!
Good night Weather! See you tomorrow!

Probably a lame question, but can a low split 3 ways? I.e. Pacific, Bay of Campeche and Bay of Honduras?
Navy's got a nice site for rainfall, but there are others, too.
I'm out.
Thanks once again MLC. Well I guess my quite time for the night has come to an end. Got to get the kids up for school on the morning. See everyone tomorrow!
LATEST SFC MAP

CDL, now there's a site that can give you a fairly good picture world-wide of sfc features. It takes a second to load and you can zoom and move around.

3 lows? The best way I can answer your question (and certainly yield to other expertise) is that you have to think in terms of the troposphere. Air has weight, too. There are areas of high and low pressure. Higher pressure has more weight. When you see these "contour" lines away from a high pressure or low pressure, it's showing you the difference in the weight or pressure if you will. Some areas fluctuate and there will be periods as air moves where one area of low pressure is more dominant than another. Air currents are pushed on top or into one another - when they're alike they join up - when they're different usually there's friction and fast moving air that gives us storms. Of course topos, etc all fit into how that is reflected I think, too.

Now, that's prolly a stupid answer and some of these smarter folks can probably do a much better and simpler job of answering your questions. I'm simply novice, nothing more.
Thanks MLC talk to you tomorrow! Get some sleep!
I'm out.
895. kingy
881 - you will get banned with posts like that
National Hurricane Center - Miami, Florida
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
06:00 UTC June 2, 2008

A surface trough extends southwestward from the pacific coast of Southeastern Mexico and Northern Central America for a few hundred miles and it is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days.. Regardless of development it could produce locally heavy rains in portion of El Salvador, Guatamala, and Southeastern Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=========================================
MODERATE (20-50%)

---

uh-oh more rain for those hard hit regions from Cyclone Alma/Arthur..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number Fifty
15:00 PM JST June 2 2008

SUBJECT: CATEGORY THREE TYPHOON IN SEAS SOUTH OF THE JAPAN

At 6:00am UTC, Typhoon Nakri (T0805) [965 hPa] located near 26.8N 135.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts up to 100 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northeast at 19 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
======================
150 NM southeast from the center
90 NM northwest from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 30.4N 137.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 33.3N 140.3E - 45 knots (EXTRATROPICAL LOW)

-------------------

Philippine Atmospheric Geophyiscal and Astronomical Service Administration

Typhoon "ENTENG" has accelerated as it leaves the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

At 11:00 AM PST, Typhoon Enteng (Nakri) located near 25.5ºN 134.5ºE or 640 kms east of Okinawa, Japan has 10 minutes sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts up to 90 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north-northeast at 16 knots.

With this development of the cyclone exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility this will be the final advisory issued by PAGASA.

---
Advisory Fifty and nearing the end when Nakri finally transist into a strong extratropical low near Japan southern islands and the mainland.
Photobucket

RAMSDIS water vapor loop.

I think it's really amazing how the dry air seems to cut off precisely where the GOM ends and the Caribbean begins where there's plenty of moisture. The norther body is full of dry air and the other fully damp.
This is like the opposite of last year around this time...where the Caribbean was dry as a bone with entrained Saharan dust and the Gulf was nearly covered with moist air.
Morning everybody. I see the area of storms off the Belizean coast is persisting . . . If this hangs around long enough, we may some Nward movement . . .
That stuff south of Mexico looks like it's about to explode...warm water temps, low shear, lots of moisture, lots of convection....
G'morning, Baha, all. Gotta be a record somewhere over lingering over land!



The real story here continues to be rainfall. The eastern side is dumping 5-10 inches fairly generously over the region. Some areas like Belize and the Gulf of Honduras areas are getting as much as 15 inches of rain. These areas may experience devastating mudslides and flooding considering the fact that Arthur(etc) has been fairly stationary over the area since Friday and a deluge of rain has fallen with more on the way as it traverses back across sMexico.
Just took a look at the SAmerican wave that caused so much contention last night, and I have to admit it looks like it's grating itself to pieces against Guyana and Surinam. Those areas east of the Berbice River are going to get soaked, in all likelihood. Maybe enough of it will last to stir something up in the WCar. I don't see it shifting off to the north, though.
Didn't some areas of Belize already have in excess of 6 inches of rain by Saturday? I could see flooding as a serious issue in Belize City . . .
Yeah, Baha. Shear is tearing that convection that's trying to build down there.
Arthur, the "Land Storm" could be one of the most notable storms of the season if it keeps this up!

....out for a few hours sleep! Ya'll have a good Monday!
I'm out too - gotta go to work today . . .

Have a good one, all, and let's keep the bickering to a minimum!

908. 7544
ok heres more to watch for this week

Link
From the TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ON THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE
ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
.
Looks like another EPAC storm could be brewing:

EPac is climatology ready yet the Atlantic is somewhat active. Have a great day.
Morning all


Well 7544, it is good to see the CMC is up to it's old tricks. Likely overdoing cyclogenesis as usual. Although the Ukmet and the GFS do seem to hint at some weak energy in that area next week.

After just taking a peak at the models, it looks like the tropical Atl is showing signs of things ramping up over the next few weeks. Nothing in particular, just more defined waves, more little areas of vorticity, more areas of slightly lowered pressure...Just things to start keeping an eye on. I guess what I am saying is that blob watching will start ramping up considerably over the next few weeks.

Quick Links-Find model pages, imagery, marine data, preparedness info, and much more.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUN 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...AND IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...IT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.


So if we do see Boris in the coming days ...correct me if im wrong... be the second time that a system crossed the atlantic/pacific twice and got 3 names. Hattie-Simone-Inga in 1961 was the first.
Actually HurikanEB, the system that could become Boris is not directly associated with Arthur/Alma.
Does anyone know of any satellite loops that can go back several days?
915. I think there are some historical imagery sites here.
914.
oh, ok. thanks for pointing that out. i didn't realize
916.
Thanks StormJunkie
Close enough for me. At least they are all from the same disturbed area.
So the seed of the system crossing S Flor. is just north of PRic. now?
920. IKE
919. leftovers 5:59 AM CDT on June 02, 2008
So the seed of the system crossing S Flor. is just north of PRic. now?


Probably....IF it happens....highly questionable at this point.
Along with that nasty looking blob in the EPAC... we have THREE areas to watch in the Atlantic? What's this about a Puerto Rico system? I see nothing on the radar.
1207, what you doing with radar?

Satellite is what you want in this case. Not to mention you need to view the CMC so you know what they are talking about.
923. IKE
What isn't questionable is how Belize and the area surrounding it are getting rained on.......if that moisture could make it north...beneficial rain...doesn't look like that's gonna happen anytime soon.
I don't have anyone ignored, but some posts are hidden...what's up with dat?
926. beell
A portion of.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/

MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LOW TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DON`T REALLY SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE RIDGE IN PLACE SHUNTING THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH.
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR NOW
. THE AREA COULD REALLY USE THE RAIN. GLS
HAS NOT RECEIVED RAIN IN 17 DAYS AND THE LAST TIME RAINFALL
TALLIED A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN 24 HOURS WAS BACK ON
APRIL 27TH. 43
Good to see you cajun

It is your filter setting. Set to show all to fix.
Good morning all! Just contacted Dr. Masters and I will be performing an analysis of the Tropics for my Tropical Update. I'll be back soon.
Good to see you too StormJunkie!

Thanks, I haven't been on here in so long I guess a few things changed.
Base of upper trough dropping into the GOM (SSD Water vapor Loop)
Looks like a shortwave that is going to wrap west around the big Mid-CONUS DLH.

Interesting how that high teleconnects to the West Coast Trough that seems to be coupled to the anomalous cold pool off of the N. American West Coast. This years La Nina supposedly triggered a polarity switch in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that gives us that cold pool. The result seems to be an ocean-atmospheric coupling resulting in a mean trough off of the W. NA coast so far this late-spring which has partially diverted the East Asian jet into the southern branch, reinforcing the usual La Nina effect of enhanced split-flow. I think this is a good part of the explanation for the unusually active tornadic season this year.

It will be interesting to see how long this pattern persists. Today it looks like the jetstream is finally breaking through along about 40N on the West Coast. Hopefully this will mean the demise of the Mid-CONUS DLH that is currently blocking tropical moisture from reaching parched regions along the SE US.
Weather456 in your post with the picture i think i see a blob coming off Africa, am I right?
Soggy report from the island of Caye Caulker, Belize, located 18 miles N of Belize City and 9 miles offshore.

Considerable rain and continuous thunderstorms all night witch still continue. 24 hour rain totals are 8.5 inches. 36 hour totals to date are about 13 inches.
Wind gusts peaked about 2:30 AM CST with a reading of 64 knots. Most wind direction was out of the NE to ENE in the range of 25 to 35 knots.

Current wind is light (1-3 knots) out of the East. Solid cloud cover, moderate rain with thunder and lighting. Barometer 1010. Local streets are flowing with 2-4 inches of water.

No information of any damages. I will go out later and report back.
933. IKE
Thanks for the N-fo...momiller....64 knot gust? 8.5 inches of rain! Looks like you have more coming.
Good morning everyone! I guess I missed Arthur while away for the weekend in the backwoods of Alabama. Yeah, you guessed it, no internet there!
935. IKE
Backwoods of Alabama.........

Link
931. Littleninjagrl 8:42 AM AST on June 02, 2008
Weather456 in your post with the picture i think i see a blob coming off Africa, am I right?


Correct. I'm not whether its a wave or not...I'll have to some anlaysis of that feature and post it.
wave at 54w s of 14n is being sheared from the nw. not looking as healthy as it was a few hrs ago. the rain will not be as heavy as it was anticipated
Morning Kiddos -
Quite a weekend.

Lots o blob watching to do this week!
: )
Conditions this morning on the east central Florida coast: reduced visibility with heavy smoke. It's that smell, that smoldering swamp smell.

Hoping we can pull a seabreeze to blow this smoke away, and then some seabreeze storms to rain it out.

Good morning everyone.....there is no way that much convection can hang in the W. Carrb. without something coming together soon.
456
the area of disturbed weather in the gulf of honduras looks more impressive than the one in the epac. convection is on the increase and there appears to be a weak mid level circulation. this area should be monitored closely. strange weather phenomenon. agre with you Devaju
Hi Momiller in Caye Caulker, we here in the south in Toledo have had just about continuous rain and my quick and dirty reckoning is at least 8" in 24 hours (Saturday). Still, if the season sticks to rain - I'll be happy!
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021154
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TROPICAL STORMS ALMA AND
ARTHUR
. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

that thing wont give up
935. IKE 7:54 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Hunting camp and it was hot. 95 everyday compared to the 85 on the coast.
Tropical Weather Discussion for MONDAY, JUNE 2, 2008.

Welcome to the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Taking a look out into the Tropical Atlantic, there are a few features out there that warrant further discussion, but not concern. We have the remnants from Tropical Storm Arthur meandering in southern Mexico, a strong tropical wave just off the South American coast, and an interesting spin at around 30N and 57W.

Tropical Storm Arthur is no longer as the NHC issued their last advisory on the system last night. After spending its entire lifetime on land (the first named tropical system in history to accomplish this), it had weakened into a remnant low. But, it appears that Arthur is not done, yes, I said not done. According to some computer models, this remnant low will work southward into the Eastern Pacific off the southern Mexican coast. With favorable conditions setting up, we could see Tropical Storm Boris form here as there is some very intense convection lurking offshore. We will just have to wait and see if this remnant low can regenerate first before we can discuss a possible path.



As you can clearly see in satellite imagery from the Yucatan Peninsula, there is some more intense convection lurking in the Gulf of Honduras (just off the eastern Yucatan). There has been some rather persistent convection in this area for days now, in association with now-former Arthur. In time, this moisture and convection could move northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where some slow development could occur as suggested by a few computer models, but that remains to be seen.



Now, lets discuss the tropical wave. Located on 53W between 5 N to 13N, there has been some some strong showers and storms persisting with this tropical wave. Overnight, there was some slight turning occuring, suggesting that tropical development was trying to occur, but as it continued WNW, it has encountered some higher wind shear which has weakened the strong storms on the wave axis. It will continue moving WNW to NW over the coming days. There are no computer models developing this wave. With the original update, I had mentioned this, but was incorrect. The tropical wave near Africa has been developed by some computer models, not this one. Sorry for the error.



Finally, there is an interesting little feature I noticed while watching satellite imagery and through my analysis. There is an evident spin occuring at around 30N and 57W with some increasing convection wrapping around. Right now, this circulation remains in the mid-to-upper levels, meaning that nothing tropical will form, but there are some signs that this may be working down to the surface, where tropical development would then be possible, but slow to occur. No computer models develop this feature, but it would not surprise me to see some subtropical development (maybe even tropical if it can work down to the surface) to occur, although it would be slow development.

Stay tuned for further updates that should come daily now, depending upon my schedule.
Arthur trying to spawn twins?
good morning my weather friends!

If that low system gets back into pacific and gets a 3rd name ...will that be crazy or what!LOL

just checking in..will be back later.
948. IKE
946. Skyepony 8:31 AM CDT on June 02, 2008
Arthur trying to spawn twins?


LOL...from sex change to having twins...Identical?
949. IKE
944. 69Viking 8:20 AM CDT on June 02, 2008
935. IKE 7:54 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Hunting camp and it was hot. 95 everyday compared to the 85 on the coast.


Hot here too in Defuniak Spgs. Highs today in the 90's.
JP i have 85Deg here in Tampa already dam....
Well Arthur indirectly produced a small wind swell on Sat-it was rideable & the incoming tide had a few 3 foot sets on the outside at Ponce. Water temp officialy 79 degrees, so everything in place now in no shear zones.
cchsweatherman
the wave se of the winwards is sheared and stretched out by 25knots wind shear. looking at the structure now it does not have a chance of development. it will only bring some showers to the islands
946. Skyepony 1:31 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Arthur trying to spawn twins?

LOL, LandStorms never spawn twins (can you spawn on land?).

Maybe more like a race, if one develops, the other gets starved of inflow and sheared.
I prefer "Gender Transcendent" Dr M

But Arthur is Awesome! There was a lot in that wave/system. Always was. I wouldn't be surprised if more poops out.
945. cchsweatherman 9:28 AM AST on June 02, 2008

Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.


941. stoormfury 9:09 AM AST on June 02, 2008

The area in the EPAC has the better chance of developing based on QuikSCAT, surface analysis and uppper level winds.

949. IKE 8:36 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

Amazing how the sea breeze can keep the coast 5 - 10 degrees cooler. Of course that doesn't happen in July and August when the water temperature really heats up in the GOM.
958. IKE
True 69viking.
GM all,missed Arthur this weekend was busy.Hate these weekend storms,not even worth the name.
One thing I have noticed in South Florida is that sometimes these tropical systems that form south or east of us actually make things drier around here. Either subsidence or effecting the positioning of the AB high so we don't get proper sea-breezes. This storm is actually creating very weak steering for us in CAPE CORAL...storms are not moving much and not making it to the coast yet. The heat would be ok if we had some relief in the evening.
Now most models keep the mid-lower circulation of the wave near the cape verdes. This wave should encounter the eastward moving MJO pulse that helped spawn Alma and Arthur. This wave should be monitored as the ECWMF breifly develops this feature near 44W. MJO is expected to be near the Central ATL around June 7-12.

Good morning all

Just stopping in for a quick comment. The vis sat loop shows a still vigorous circulation from Arthur just beyond the extreme NW corner of the boundary between Guatemala and Mexico. It appears to be on a heading just N of due West and could conceivably get into the BOC.

I believe that what is keeping this alive is the moisture inflow from the Caribbean to the East and the GOM to the North and NW of the low.

Arthur may not be done yet.

Link
956. Weather456 9:51 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
945. cchsweatherman 9:28 AM AST on June 02, 2008

Which models develop the wave? I check most of them and none did. Also look at the wind shear forecast. The wave at 54W should encounter a barrier in the SE Caribbean, afterwhich wind shear is expected slacken in the Central-Western Caribbean.


Oops! My bad. Wrong tropical wave that I mentioned some computer models developing. I'll go back and edit this.
It's already in mid 80's here with higher heat index and I only live 12 miles from the ocean! And I've got to go out and do my walk/run in this heat! Yesterday I waited unil after 11 and thought I was going to have a heat stroke!
Where I work, Weston, is further west, by the Everglades and they can be 10 degrees hotter than at my house...the seabreeze does help a little.
bbl...
953. stoormfury 9:45 AM AST on June 02, 2008

true
965. cchsweatherman 10:04 AM AST on June 02, 2008

oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
Yeah ran 3 miles this morning at about 6am and it about killed me. Really need some relief from the heat around here in SE Alabama. 3 weeks and no rain. Ugh.
968. Weather456 10:09 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
965. cchsweatherman 10:04 AM AST on June 02, 2008

oh seen...its the wave near the cape verdes...right?


Correct. Made a mistake when issuing my Tropical Update. Just got the two waves mixed up when analyzing the computer models.
970. jphurricane2006 10:10 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
wow almost 91 here already

whew glad im indoors lol


If you don't mind, where do you live? Right now in Cooper City its around 88 and I have some pool work to do soon.

969. cchs

Yea note its for the "atlantic side" - There a few cyclones in the area, on a few of the models. I think we could get more than another system out of this.
wow almost 91 here already
whew glad im indoors lol


Yeah, looks like summertime weather is here. We had a nice afternoon thunderstorm yesterday, though I didn't check the rain gauge to see how much rain we received.
975. jphurricane2006 10:14 AM EDT on June 02, 2008
Casselberry, Florida

its just north of Orlando

hey CCHS you think you can point me to where you got that map? I may add it to my blog


The map is on the front page of the NHC site. To insert the image into your blog, just right click on the map, then select Properties. When the window appears, highlight the URL Address and copy it. Now, just insert the image as usual with the URL and it will appear on your blog.
<---was born in Winter Park, FL jp. My grandparents still live there to this day. I love the Orlando area. Went to UCF for 2 years as well.
Good morning...

Is that Arthur still causing problems? I thought he wasn't around anymore... that will teach me to think.
Well jp, I haven't had much time to get it together yet. I'll work on it. lol
964. kmanislander 9:04 AM CDT on June 02, 2008

I've been watching the remnants of Arthur too and that circulation is really close to the Bay of Campeche.
After this MJO pulse ends June 12....the latter part of June should show little acitivty but hold on to ur hats cuz a strong pulse should move through in mid July. That pulse will be much stronger than we had recently. With that, and below normal upper winds and average-above normal SSTs...its most likely we would have atleast Christobal bofore July 31.
Can yall please comment my blog?
Good morning everyone!

Arthur is no more than a rain event now for Mexico, Belize and Honduras this afternoon. Its not rare but it is interesting how the remnants of Alma last week organized so rapidly to form Arthur. Weather radio discussed today that tropical formation is unlikely for the next two days.

However, is there anything out there that you all are looking at that might raise a little concern? I've yet to get a look at the Atlantic, does anyone feel like giving me the low-down?

P.S. Hey JP, Good morning sir!

I just hope everyone is patient during the lull times....I know it can get intense...like waiting to see if u get accepted into ur dream college.
New Blog
That is right....2004...Charley was on Fri the 13th.....it took a while to get to just the "c" letter. I will never forget...My first full direct hit from hurricane winds!
988. Weather456 2:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
I just hope everyone is patient during the lull times....I know it can get intense...like waiting to see if u get accepted into ur dream college

Or like waiting for your federal refund check