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The heat is on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2006

Record heat has gripped much of the U.S. this week. The heat is currently most intense in the Desert Southwest, where yesterday Phoenix recorded its fourth highest temperature of all time, 118 F. Needles, California hit a record 120 yesterday, and the temperature topped out at 123 F in Death Valley--only 13 degrees cooler than the world record 136 F measured in El Azizia, Libya, in 1922. The heat should continue for another week in the Southwest, before a shift in the jet stream pattern brings more normal temperatures to the region late next week.

The heat is on in Europe, too
Europe has seen its own record heat wave this week. Britain broke its all-time July temperature record, with a 98 F (36.5 C) temperature recorded at the Royal Horticultural Society's gardens at Wisley in Surrey. This bested the previous record for July, 36 C, set in Epsom in 1911. Belgium also recorded its hottest July day ever, 99 F (37 C) on July 19. Paris and Berlin both recorded 102 F (39 C) on July 20. However, the 2006 heat wave has caused far fewer deaths than the intense heat wave of 2003 that killed over 35,000 people. The 2006 heat wave has claimed 20 victims in France, 2 in Spain, and 4 in Germany and the Netherlands. Much of the reduced death toll can be credited to better preparation learned from the 2003 heat wave.

The heat, combined with drought, has reduced the amount of cooling water available to cool the nuclear reactors in Germany and France, forcing those plants to cut back on electricity production. In Italy, hydroelectric power generation has been reduced due to the drought.

Warmest January through June ever in U.S.
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the June 2006 was the 2nd warmest June on record, and the first half of 2006 was the warmest in the United States since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature for the 48 contiguous United States from January through June was 51.8�F, or 3.4�F above average for the 20th century. Globally, June was also the 2nd warmest June on record, and the period January through June was the 6th warmest such period on record.

Watching the tropics
There are no areas of disturbed weather to talk about the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development for the coming week.

The main action this week will be in the Eastern Pacific, where we have my favorite type of hurricane--a huge, spectacular Category 4 (almost 5) storm that is no threat to land. Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year. Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week, but the storm will probably be a weak tropical storm by that point, due to passage over cooler waters.


Latest satellite image of Hurricane Daniel

Jeff Masters
120 degrees
120 degrees
But it's a dry heat. I'm sure it's going to get a couple degrees warmer today but I could not hang around any longer.

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank heavens for shear and Saharan dust!
The tropics are snoozing in the Atlantic..or sheering...
*shearing*
A quiet tropics......
Highlight of 2005 season...catastrophic hurricanes.

Highlight of 2006 season...so far...how to pronounce Beryl aka Milton aka Ber..yl.
skepony labor day hurr did not hit in the last 40 years plus all but katrina hit in a down cycle of activity hmm
120 degrees is too durned hot!
Well July is normally not a busy time in the tropical Atlantic.
Here in Southern California we have really been experiencing the high temps. It's not that unusual for us to get some high temps in late August or early September (we always say our summer weather comes just in time for school to start!), but this year has been very hot and humid. I live 3 blocks from the beach and at 8:00 in the morning conditions are already warm and muggy with 74 and 89% humidity. We would generally drop into the 60's at night, but I'm not sure we have for a while.

I have a brother that lives out in the desert where it is currently 98.5 already. He informs me that that is also the temperature of his pool! Where some might have to heat it, he needs to add ice cubes to cool it down! They are headed for a high of 120 today. They are vacationing up here at the beach in a couple of weeks, so while we are complaining about this heat, they might just relish it!
Just searched out Westerberg's photo above to discover he lives in Cathedral City which is out where my brother lives - really makes me wonder what Death Valley will reach today.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART




HurricaneKing, that wave could be something for everybody to watch, or atleast for mexico...if anything forms out of that it would probaly be weak and make landfall very quickley.
i thought 90 degrees was hot!!!....well, im sure wrong
lol
ROFL!!! The humidity DOES make a difference...
Thanks Dr. M. Temp at my house is currently 93F with a dew point of 73F. Already wet here, going to go jump in the pool to get wetter! WE NEED THE RAIN TYPE OF WET THOUGH!!! Come on rain, drench the panhandle please.
I thought it was hot here in SC, but man I feel sorry for you guys out west and midwest. I think I'll stick with the high 90's lower 100's and 60% humidity. have fun with the heat.
this season is way boring....but it will get less boring soon...maybe..lol
ROTFLMBO at that "120 degrees" pic!
Good Afternoon All!!!!!!!!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART
For those who wondering, wind shear is not above 20knots for most of the atlantic basin, and dust is is not as dense as it was two days ago.

The atlantic is quiet in terms of areas of disturbances not unfavorable conditions.

98L could come from the Bay of campeche disturbance.
You know it's going to be a hot day when it is 104 degrees at 8 a.m.(Needles CA). The low this morning there was only 100 degrees believe it or not.
Dr Masters, Thanks for the update. And I did get a look at H Daniel and it is one pretty storm to look at; and knowing it will probably not hurt anyone!

It's been hot here but in SE Florida it is suppose to be hot and humid this time of year with afternoon rain storms everyday!

Hope our luck with the topics holds out!

Have a great Saturday everyone!
Gams
jp, we might have 98L, and 99L soon
Saint--Hurricane Elena was a Labor Day storm in 1985. 8/28 to 9/4/85, reached Cat 3 w/ landfall on 9/2 on Gulf Coast of AL & LA. I remember that one!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

and the wave in the EATL
"Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year."

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
hey JP, the dust is ahead of the wave,

LINK

and wind shear is LOW!!!!
One problem with 15N 34W is that SSTs are still not very favorable for development. The waves fall apart quickly out there. Plus the large dust cloud in front of it, but the dust does look to be dissipating a bit. Daniel sure looks beautiful/awesome.
when i mean wind shear is LOW!!!!!!!!!

I mean i'm suprise

I see what you mean.....see this IR map
SST, isnt a problem for waves, the problem is dust
456, the wind shear in Atlantic is still 'in the face' of possible developing storms crossing the Atlantic from Africa and therefore effects may be greater at shearing systems. Do you know if wind shear direction typically reverses in the Atlantic later in August? I'm a newbie with weather:) TIA anybody who knows for the help...
well..... things are so quiet in the atlantc, you could hear a SEAGULL drop! LOL

had to resort to model watching!

CMC 66HRS


the ever ambitious cmc has possible development in the BOC and something possible offthe carolina coast. doubtful either one of these will develop much.... conditions are supposed to "impove" for tropical development in the coming days..... so a tropical depression, or weak TS is not out of the question. but due to the close proximity to land, it will be difficult to develop any significant surface circulation..... but in the next 3 days, this seems the "most likely" area of tropical development.... as for the carolina system, it does appear to be "ahead" of the upcoming trough, which would tend to indicate it is not a low associated "directly" with a front.... as Dr. Masters indicated..... sometimes this time of year its hard to distinguish between a tropical low, and a low.....

nogaps 84hr


seems to have the BOC oin more towards texas, nothing of any significance of the carolina coast......

gfs 60hrs


seems to have the BOC storm as possible development, but once again, otice the proximity of the mexican coastline.... and the gfs also indicates "something" possible off the carolina coast....

i don't really see any other area's for possible development in the next 48-72hrs.....

guess we better enjoy our quiet time, and prey we don't have to deal with the likes of "DANIEL" in the atlantic this year!!!



but if you need a "swirl" fix, go here and see if you can find one! :D
I hope nothing gets into the gulf this year.
E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

By the way...today's morning "low" on a local mountain slope in the Bay Area was 94 degrees! The average high for that location is near 80 for this time of year. Numerous daily records, and some all-time records are going to be set in CA today. Could see 110+ in Bay Area today.
littlefish, I think, wind shear is always from West to east....in terms of direction.
and i need to learn how to spell! LOL
looks like S. Florida is in for some heavy rains the rest of the day!!!
thunder01 i am taz did you say there was a low of 94 in ca today wow did not cool off vary march did it so if it was 94 for a low what do you think the temps is now?
SSTs aren't a problem? So are the temps 80 degrees fahrenheit off west Africa already? the images I looked at this morning had some spots reaching below 15 N from the 20-40W range that looked to be below the 26 C mark. But I'm not certain of that. And it does look like things are just starting to warm ever-so-slightly off W Africa coast. Anyhow, it is another impressive-looking wave (but all others have fallen apart quickly after rolling off coastline). How do you guys/gals know so much? :)
E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

its Tropical Storm EMILIA
Thanx 456. I just thought with the windshear in Eastern Pacific going with the flow of storms like Daniel, that it might improve the chances for development in Atlantic if windshear reversed direction. Guess the Atlantic doesn't get that luxury...
littlefish this map shows that not all areas are below 80degrees, there are few spots above 80...

Also, when a wave is that strong, it gives them a chance to hold together, to cross the atlantic....

Not all hold together, but as August and September comes, and the waves are coming off that strong as they are today, then we might have about 5 cape verde storms...

Last year we did not see as much waves roll off africa with that intensity, curvature and low pressure, as the wave from yestreday had a 1013mbar pressure.

The waves are holding together up about 30-40W usually, as in June and last year, they fell apart quckly, so as the season progress, you will see they last longer and have chances to develop.

E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

its Tropical Storm EMILIA


So it is.
and another thing, this year is more on the side of cape verde not as we saw in 2005, thats why we dont have as much storms.

In cape verde years the bulk of the activity is move to the atlantic where the SST are not as warm, so that year might end up with (10-12)named storms, with very long life spans.

But in a year like 2005, the bulk of the activty is moved to the gulf and caribbean sea, where sst are very warm, thus producing large amount (15-17) of storms with very a short life.

Now factoring in the wind shear and dry air, you get a pretty good idea of the season.
Good afternoon, I am a newbie but a hurricane expert having gone thru "Andrew" (when I lived in Fort Lauderdale) "Ivan" & "Dennis". Living outside of Pensacola, we are always watching & waiting...I am learning a great deal and hope to be able to contribute something one day. Have a great day.
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 32W/33W IS REPOSITIONED
ALONG 30W BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
AND SURFACE DATA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 15N. THE LOW IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED ON VIS SATELLITE
PICTURES. WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
Thanks StormW
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO. VERACRUZ REPORTED
2.6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC
SIDE.
welcome sunny55
Hello all, total newbie here. The weather channel (don't laugh please) just mentioned watching a blob in the Bay of Campechy.

Curious what ya'll think.

Oh, I'm in Santa Cruz Mtns. California, 202 in the shade yesterday.
louastu

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.


Okay I'm confused now.. Typhoon Chanchu (Caloy) didn't have 135 knots winds (155 mph)??
hey there Morgana......i grew up just outside of Big Basin...not sure how many times we saw anything over 100...love it when the fog rolled in
Hello all, total newbie here. The weather channel (don't laugh please) just mentioned watching a blob in the Bay of Campechy.

Curious what ya'll think.


As JP said before, its a little close to land, but the NHC thinks diffrent.
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 6:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2006.
louastu

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Okay I'm confused now.. Typhoon Chanchu (Caloy) didn't have 135 knots winds (155 mph)??

Yes, Chanchu had winds of 155 mph. I am saying there have been 3 storms in the northern hemisphere that have reached category 4 strength this year (Chanchu, Ewinar, and Daniel).
ricderr
I'm in Boulder Creek, Big Basin is my backyard. We've seen over 100 several days in a row now, we've had snow in BC six out of the last seven years, and I lost two houses to El Nino landslides in 98.
Just saw an article on the Fallarones the water is too warm and killing off the krill.

Learning so much from all of you. Thank you for your contributions.
Question. I've seen your references to Cape Verde seasons and not, coming into the gulf.
Having been hit at least 3 times with Arlene, Dennis, and Ivan (alphabetical), how do you come to your conclusions? Have never thought to ask the pros. I am interested in hearing your thoughts, as they seem to be opposing at times. BTW, sweet rain in the panhandle right now!
little food for thought if the bay of camp gets affected by the trough could move more north?
looking At wu maps shear looks favorable so are water temps and thier are highs all over sw texas
could this force it north and be affected by trough like some thoughts pressure is 1012 off mex coast
but 1014 1015 over fla system with light winds dive in guys tell me what you think
i know right where you live.....i haven't been there in a decade....my mother bought a condo in the city...years ago...i have followed the weather..and am amazed at how severe the winters and summers have been as compared to years past...kill the krill...then the herring go..then the salmon......i'm not completely sold on global warming...still believe much can be said of weather cycles...such as what we had here in Fl.
SAINTHURRIFAN, even it does not develop, we should watch as its future track takes it to Texas....

Conditions do appear favourable, so, it might have a chance
chanhe Texas to Mexico
Here is the Wikipedia article on Cape Verde storms.

Link
StormW thats cool cuz I'm going to college to be a meteorologist right now also. I'm attending MSU and my major is BMP or Broadcast meteorology program.
This year will be diffrent as there is alot ridging of tropical waves, upper level lows, located in the cenetral atlantic, keeping them south, so when they finally turn north they would already be to far west.

by upper level lows*
i agree weather 456 thats why i say storm tops dust is curse more than a blessing allows strong waves to move much further west before they develop remember last year.
also where is st somebody said he wa banned? and the boc blog how far n or e do you think it could move s/c tx is covered by highs would that not force it due n or nne
Thanks JP. Just interested. Am in the panhandle, and we have been hit much more than the rest of FL for the last couple of years. Even with Charley, Frances, and Wilma. I am so hoping for all fish storms this year, and if not, I am willing to share the love so to speak. I am ready for them to head up the east coast! Hope none will have the damage we have seen here though!
okay, what did Cyclone Mala end up to.
Saint- ST is just hitting his head against that stone.

he will show up soon enough, you know better.
Sorry SAINT must have missunderstood the question, didn't realize we were only going back 40 years here. Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 still seems pretty formable in strongest US landfalling hurricane ever. Cat 5, on the keys. Offical pressure 892mb, unconfirmed 880mb, at landfall. As far as all of them but 1 happening during the down swing in activity, do you mean the negative part of the AMO cycle? If your only including 40 years, ~30 years of that time was in the negative phase of the AMO cycle.

I ran across this in that link as far as the AMO being affected by Global Warming. I think this makes more sense then the recent research that is late returning from it's peer review that says that particle polution created the AMO. This is along the lines of enhanced it, since direct, consistant results have been measured from different amounts of pollution present.

The AMO cycle is considered a natural cycle, not caused by human activities. The data coming from the so-called proxi series, like the studies of the rings of trees or the ice, suggest that this oscillation has been active almost during all the last millennium, although we have an instrumental proof of the alternation of its phases only for the last 150 years. Since it is clear that the climatic alterations caused by man cannot go back to 1000 years ago, the consequence is that the AMO cycle is considered a natural cycle. However, probably during the last century, the opposite phases of the AMO cycle have decreased and increased, alternatively, the phenomena of Global Warming.

The graphics in that link are good.
Its warm here as well. Right know its 102. There have been some huge thunderstorms toward the san gabriel mountains. Here is a picture.
This is just a few miles north of where I live.

In case any one (particularly Texan) is curious, I have just posted a rough statistical analysis of landfalling Texas tropical systems over the past 50 years in my Wunderblog.
Cyclone mala, Chanchu, Ewiniar and Daniel...that is the break down for cat 4 and 5....northern hemisphere

North India Ocean* Mala
Okay, Thank you
only one person, so far as been right, about July predctions, Stormtop.....but for some he recently changed his mind....

dont believe STORMTOP is banned....just a liitle shy....how would you feel if you was mean to people and you end up being wrong...

but he is strong, he will come back the same old way, to challange our forecast. That what makes it worthwile
how does blanket statements based on a wild guesses and little scientific fact make anything worthwhile?..the guys an arse and less than a man by not showing eating the humble pie he so rightly deserves.
"showing up and eating"
Ya, North Indian Ocean
Here is the link to Wikipedia's article on Cyclone Mala.

Link
how about it my south floridian's, so much for the spring drought, we had about a 50 mph gust with the T-storm that hit Boca today
Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week,

Was someone scoffing about this storm persisting until it hit Hawaii? //vbg//

Even if it's a tropical storm by then, Daniel will have crossed more water than the bulk of the Cape Verde storms do to get there.
Emilia also took a different path than the other three systems.
Just got back from a 4 hour drive from Kendal to Palm Beach Gardens bocaman, torrential rain the whole way. The rain and wind was crazy, hail. Drive usually takes about an hour and a half.
At the start of the season I dont think to many people thought that the E-Pacific would have more hurricanes then the Alantic.

I would aslo like to note that ocean temps are running 1-3 degrees above average of the So Cal coast.
Hey guys good afternoon to all big time storms across south florida today....Hope everyone has a great day. Adrian
lost of rain here in jensen beach also...drove up through strong storms from the keys yesterday..only to have them catch up with me here.....wasa going to add water to the pool..now wondering if i'll be draining some before too long
You too 23! Love the Rain.
ricderr, lol Felton,CA just hit 111, I've got 105 here.
Hey guys! I just wanted to let ya'll know that I am a fan of the blog. I have been reading it for months, and wanted to let you guys know that I always share ya'lls information as if it were my own with my peers. I am an adjuster with a large insurance company that is finally finishing with "clean-up" with hurricane rita down in Beaumont. I use this page as an employment page, and always appreciate the info on which storms to watch. Thanks for the great info and I'll look forward to all predictions! I look forward to a great season and ya'lls evaluation of it.
I did some looking back in the EPAC and granted I missed a couple years but, 1992 was an active year for the EPAC as far as # of Hurricanes and Intensities, similar to what we are seeing this year.
Your Welcome Disaster, glad to have ya!
EPAC always seems to squeeze out 18 to 22 storms every year, rather consistant. Intensities fluctuate quite a bit though.
morganaaa..i'm sure you're wqaiting for that qafternoon fog to roll in off the coasat..any chance today?
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Hurricane Daniel, newly formed tropical storm Emilia, and Typhoon Kamei on hurricane warning.
Good Place to check history. Click on the Best Track 1949 - 2004 for additional years.
92 was overzealous with 27 storms
I use here and Unisys.
How are you this evening JP?
Disturbance in the bay of campeche bears watching.
Posted By: ProgressivePulse at 8:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2006.
I use here and Unisys.


me too...Unisys is really good for historical storms
110 and the power is out i am out of her
i am on lappy by the way power is out and 110 right now going for 111
Mexican Coast now under TS Watch because of TS Emilia.
here in south florida...its been raining really bad, dark clouds and thunderstorms all day.
do you think the low pressure in south western gom gonna develop?
do you think the low pressure in south western gom gonna develop?


Nope, not for a few days at least.
looks like we have a "mini-blob" in the central atlantic...... note sure of its fate.....



can't really see much more than a T-storm.... what you see storm?
We've got a pretty robust (for this time of year) cool front making its way south into SE TX. If the energy associated with it (and causing our current severe weather) makes it into the GOM I bet we'll get a tropical system out of it. Especially considerring the forecasted low amount of shear after 24 hours.
Area in BOC is under 20 to 30 kt. shear today, so no development right now. Shear should drop the next few days as this slides to the NNW. Very close to Mexico though, so big development seems unlikely.
Weather is building up here. We prolly will get some rain again this evening. (It rained steadily for at least three hours yesterday evening.)

People keep mentioning swirls, but if the clouds are spinning clockwise, we shouldn't be worrying overmuch, right?
better loop of NW cuba blob
136. tx101
finally a little rain here in central texas..actually only 91 so far today,great for middle of july...maybe tropical moisture will pump north out of the bay of campeche and bring more liquid gold to drought stricken texas...but.....not gonna happen. still 18 inches behind on precip for the last 12 month period
Its a thunderstorm line, nothing really tropics wise. I think this is a classic case of wanting to see something so bad that you think you see it, happens to me once in awhile-LOL
happens to me too! LOL

hey.... on a slow day.... nice T-STORM! :D
Check this out... 1 inch of rain in 10 minutes! 4:06 pm to 4:16 pm
not the best way to make up for a drought, but it's a start.
NOW THATS A DOWNPOUR!!!
another trivia for you 1965 a cat 4 hurricaNe hit s/fla
much larger storm more widespread damage than andre what was it?
kind of curious all you fla bloggers on here seems like the only storms yall know are andrew to the present lol.
and bob my eyes must be old according to wu shear map 10 to 15
mph in the boc also all the heavy t/s associated with this front headed to gulf now that could be a problem. whaT about that 65 storm and the lack of blogging about it curious? also it made a 2nd landfall and it was the last time
this area was hit directly by a major hurricane
Hi All
First time posting here. Stumbled here a few days ago and am hooked.
Am near Va Beach, Va. A question, has a tropical system ever struck Puerto Rico from the west.

Mike

And for the Texan bloggers...check out my blog for some statistics and info on TX landfalling tropical systems over the past 50 years.
Hey Saint...looks like Betsy (?)
oops, kudos to jp
Look again old man(Saint)..LOL...Link
jp, hurricane ivan
2004, hurricane ivan
Hurricane San Ciriaco in 1899, according to Wikipedia.
everything still ok out there right?

Hi Silverfox, glad to have you aboard. sometimes you get ignored on this blog but I noticed your post. Have fun!
Gams
Afternoon all.

Welcome silverfox, interesting question.

Been out doing a bunch of work around the house. Defrosted the cane freezer and got it ready for the season. Stand up freezer packed full of two liter bottles filled with water. Great for keeping stuff cold, and when it melts, makes great drinking water.

StormJunkie.com-models imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Including some great WU blogger video. Make sure to check out the Quick Links page for fast storm tracking from some of the best sites on the web.

SJ

specifics on this hurricane here. Pretty incredible.
oops, my bad...didn't know there were rules. Won't happen again.
Beryl did'nt surprise me with the northward movement. This is probably a wake up call for the Northeast coast because the track Beryl took or is taking is possibly another track for a September Hurricane. (What is your justification for this statement?) Also meteorologists believe a season like 2004 is possibly likely as the Bermuda high just sits there in the Atlantic. It's the high that controls the storms path. Keep that in mind....

MORE
does it have to be tropical storm related?
Since Alicia in 1983 there has been only 1 major hurricane hit the entire Texas coast. What was its name, when did it hit, and where did it hit? (and no peaking on my blog.)
peeking
yep...hint on where...least populated TX coastal county (and that's probably why you don't remember where...Alicia struck 16 years earlier and was a bit weaker, yet everyone knows it hit Houston.)
"Diurnal Effects: A reference to an effect that has its origins due to daytime heating, such as afternoon cumulus cloud development or the formation of a lake/sea breeze. These phenomena dissipate once the sun goes down and surface heating is lost."

"DIURNAL
Pertaining to actions or events that occur during a twenty-four hour cycle or recurs every twenty-four hours. Meteorological elements that are measured diurnally include clouds, precipitation, pressure, relative humidity, temperature, and wind."

"Daily; related to actions which are completed in the course of a calendar day, and which typically recur every calendar day (e.g., diurnal temperature rises during the day, and diurnal falls at night)."

" Diurnal Variability

The variation throughout the course of the day (diurnal) of UV radiation is much like that of visible light.



This Figure overlays a mostly clear day's observations of the "global" or mostly visible radiation and UV radiation. Notice how UV radiation is much more attenuated than the global at high solar zenith angles in the early morning and late afternoon. This is because the two components which make up UV and all other forms of radiation; the direct and the diffuse, are both greatly affected at these low sun angles. Direct UV radiation is greatly reduced by the increased absorption by stratospheric ozone during its increased path length through the atmosphere (about 6 times more than when the sun is directly overhead). Also, radiation at the UV wavelengths is scattered much more than visible light. This further decreases the direct component and increases the diffuse component. As the Sun rises above the horizon, the amount of absorption in the stratosphere and scattering in the troposphere is reduced. The result is a drastic increase in UV radiation reaching the surface.

The variation of surface temperature differs significantly from both UV and global radiation. Where as the diurnal variation of incoming infrared radiation is similar to that of global radiation, there exists a delay between the time when the earth-atmosphere system is irradiated to when the temperature begins to increase. This is know as the thermal response. Depending upon the time of the year the lag in time between the peak radiation flux reaching the surface (solar noon) to when the surface temperature reaches its maximum can be as great as 3 to 4 hours. For example, have you noticed that it is hottest in the mid afternoon not at noon. A typical summer surface temperature plot.....



showing how the peak temperature is reached later in the afternoon. By the time of the temperature maximum, the amount of UV radiation reaching the surface has decreased almost by half of that at solar noon."

hope this helps a lttle on Diurnal....

easy to understand the components (clouds, precipitation, pressure, relative humidity, temperature, and wind), much harder to figure out how they interact with each other.

For example..... how much does "solar radiation" "aid" a TS, as compared to the overnight low temperature, which allows higher cold cloud tops...... and seems pressure would be lower at night, since the air is cooler, and sinking, more dense, and in the daytime, pressure decreases as air expands and rises....

sorry for the long post, just trying to share! Please, somebody correct any inaccuracies, or add anything pertinent, as i still have much to learn on this subject! :)

1928
I know it was the Okeechobee Hurricane, but I can't remember exactly what year it was (thinking 1928 or 1929).
Hey silverfox...still looking, but in 1910 a stong hurricane seemed to have hit Puerto Rico twice, the second time from the WNW.
Very nice thel :)
What was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever?
looks like a stormy evening for the Palmetto State......
and what was the death toll by the storm?
hello
oops, I'm an idiot, that's Cuba, not Puerto Rico...disregard previous post.
"Very nice thel :)"

Thanks SJ..... really didnt understand the diurnal effects on tropical weather, or just storms in general, so thought i'd share what i dug up.......

just wish i could get a little better handle on this! :)
hello to you Hurricanealley
It will come thel.

You think the line of storm will die off as it cools and head to the coast, or you think it will make it ot your area?
right jp, you ask the next question....
1948
1943
Good Afternoon All,

Got a question: If the front that is trying to pass through the Houston area makes it into the GOM, could it become a tropical dep, storm etc...?

Also, what is all the stuff already in the Gulf?
Alright, silverfox, doesn't look like it's ever happened...checked 1891, 1891, 1893, 1896, 1899, 1900, 1901, 1910, 1916, 1926, 1928, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1956, 1963, 1979, 1996 ,1998 ,2004
I'm so stupid. It was during WWII so it could not have been 1948.
well, they are already in n. horry county..... but horry county is huge! LOL

they are saying we could get some gusts just in advance of the storm..... looks to me to me the moving easteward component looks about 15ph.... so i figure 8:30, i'll let you know! :)
hey SJ you better standy..... looks heading your way as well..... some nasty lighting, hail, and gusty winds associated.... but i'm sure you are used to it! ;)
My thoughts, 27windows...

Posted By: OneDay at 9:22 PM GMT on July 22, 2006.

We've got a pretty robust (for this time of year) cool front making its way south into SE TX. If the energy associated with it (and causing our current severe weather) makes it into the GOM I bet we'll get a tropical system out of it. Especially considerring the forecasted low amount of shear after 24 hours.

The "if" seems like a good possibility the way the system is holding together.
The question I asked earlier about a TS hitting Puerto Rico from the west. I was just curious about that, didn't know I needed to know the answer first. Didn't play by the rules I guess. LOL
this is a givaway. What was the death toll by 2006's Tropical storm alberto? What caused the two deaths?
wild guess...lightning strikes.
the question should be, what caused the two deaths in 2006's alberto.
Could the National Hurricane Center make forecasts better? This has been a question of debate over many years. At hurricane warning/ weathercore forums we invite you to express your opinion about this extremely important issue through a poll and debate. We want to hear what you have to say about it so dont be scared or shy to jump in. Join the discussion at

NHC Debate
silverfox...I enjoyed the search (and I re-learned some geography along the way :0)
Thanks OneDay,

I gather you are in Houston Metro Area?

I'm off Space Center Blvd.
Yep...I'm in Spring. I used to live off of El Dorado Blvd. Did you "evacuate" for Rita?
Yep....took 16 hours to drive to Kerrville. We had it better than others though; we left at night, had a good Texas Atlas, (Which I believe I could have sold for a thousand dollars) food, water....

I don't know if I would do it again or not. Cat 4 or above, yeah, but anything lower and I will stay put.
Weather getting a little ugly here nw of Pensacola,if it will bring the much needed rain to area I wont't complain.
Thanks jp and OneDay
nope, oneday it wasnt lighting strikes....
That whole evacuation thing ... don't know. Weirdest hurricane experience I've had. Could not go anywhere, almost all stores were closed, stores that were open were sold out. All of this almost 48 hours before landfall.
nope
yep, jp, one was cause by drowning....
As long as these fronts keep pushing south, there ought to be some wind shear to keep things mixed up. Alicia developed off a front. A low developed over Lake Charles on the front and pushed out over the gulf with the front. It slowly became warm core.
We stayed home for both Ivan & Dennis-with Ivan watched our windows bow in & out-now we have hurricane panels to put up on all our windows-the noise is terrifying.
Can Somebody help me with this one?


How come CIRA is predicting a 0.4-0.7% chance of tropical activity over the upper Adarondacks?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
sorry, should have linked that.

Link
I was 19 when Alicia hit, so I didn't remember she formed off a front.

Oh well, I guess we wait and see if this front makes it to the Gulf.
Same surreal experience for me...12 hours on the road (with 30 gallons of gas in the trunk for which I'm sure I could have been shot) before we decided to turn around and go home to ride it out. We ended up buying the last pizza at a local gas station before they closed. Being so far from the coast, I'll probably not evacuate again. Like they say, shelter against the wind, run from the surge.
looks like the shear is beginning to relax around the hurricane spawning ground.

Link
yep, jp thats correct.

Alberto 2006 caused 2 deaths, one in a plane crash due to bad weather and another person drown...showing that a 50mph storm can be deadly.

jp, you have the next....
and how 'bout southern arkansas? (perhaps SomeThing will form there and move SouTh and devaSTate NOLA?)
jp - didn't a hurricane hunter aircraft go down in a hurricane Alicia: although probably not the one you're talking about, this one was in the sixties, I think?
Well I'm off.....Hopefully I'll be able to sneak on here tomorrow and see what the front did....or didn't do.

Bye bye.
Ivan, if we are counting his entire trek.
bye, 27windows. stay dry
There was Edit in 71 where a hurricane hunter plane had a rough ride. The only HH plane lost in the Atlantic was in Janet back in the 50's.
Janet, that's the one I'm thinking of - oh well, at least I got the gender right.
all women (except Gamma). Somebody might be inclined to make a joke about that - not I though.
Actually early on (jp probably knows when it changed over) all storms were named with female names.
I still think Ivan...assuming you count his north to south trek over the eastern US.
the same storm with the highest ACE
early on ... all storms were named with female names

LOL
Hurricane San Ciriaco in 1899
would it be the same answer as before...San Ciriaco hurricane of 1899?
how 'bout Irene? That one did a lot of juking and jiving?
jp, was it faith
Maybe that Saint Cyriaco storm.
betsy of course was right but so few floridians on this blog mention or the panhandle folks what about eloise
im convinced every one on here is under 30 lol. one more dont peak what hurricane weakened to a 25 mph depression was basically forecasted to
dissipate and then in less in 48 hours became a cat 4 and hit al/ms line clue was on the heels of a 180 mph cat 5 whose updwellings caused it to weaken then as the prior cat 5
went up the ga coast as a minimal storm the cane of question became the costliest us natural disaster of its time its a nother storm rarely mentioned on this blog
good bye everyone...thanks for the great discussion (as always.)
I'm stump
John, wasn't it in the pacific
What was the fastest intensifing hurricane in the atlantic?
Wilma.
that storm i asked about completly sucked mobile bay dry another hint david was the cat 5 in front of it
gotta be Frederick
right, too easy
odd I don't see a Wikipedia article

though the USS Mooseburger made an emergency sortie from Pascagoula cause of it
okay, I'll ask the question, but I gotta run - the missus wants me to get the dogs on the grill. What hurricane had the highest recorded wind speed. This is an easy one, JP should be all over this one.
um, Moosbrugger
fredrick he was here in se ms we ddid not have power for over a month the highest wind gust at chevron in pascagoula was during fredrick
178mph 130 sustained dauphin islands pressure was 938 mb before the weather station blew down never before or sense have seen a storm destroy so many trees or utility poles
that goes for camille or katrina as ive said forgotten storm
only 1 190 at landfall another ms coast visitor camille
for such a small coastline we really get the doozies
Durn Wikipedia people can't spell. They left the 'k' off the end of Frederick.
Have u guys ever sen the wind analyses for the 1935 labor day hurricane?



AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE SURROUNDING SHIPS/BUOYS. DESPITE THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE OF THE WAVE AND LOW...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SURROUNDING THESE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE.
im here
JP, et al.--looks like a quiet night for weather talk. Looks like Daniel is slowing down and there are no blobs to examine. Guess it's time to give it a rest for the night. See y'all manana.
buoy reports in the western north and central gulf are pretty low found one at 28.7 88.7 at 29.80 thats about 1009 mb
with all these t/s coming into the gulf who knows
277. SLU
maybe everyone's mood is a direct reflection of the type of season we're having so far ... (yawn) zzzzzzzzzzzz
278. SLU
in my opinion .. its the quietest July here in the Eastern Caribbean since maybe 2001?? (lack of wave activity, little rainfall and thunderstorms to enjoy, hot, dry, sunny weather like as if it was late March and not late July).
with lower pressures and a trough coming into gulf i think thuer could be a problem in the gulf nxt week
it is a nice quiet night in the tropics, almost feels good. No confusion, no "who's right or wrong", just peaceful...
Posted By: SLU at 9:41 PM AST on July 22, 2006.
in my opinion .. its the quietest July here in the Eastern Caribbean since maybe 2001?? (lack of wave activity, little rainfall and thunderstorms to enjoy, hot, dry, sunny weather like as if it was late March and not late July).


what happen to 2004.
285. SLU
july 2004?
286. SLU
July 2004 .. we had lots of good healthy waves which kept the weather watchers interested
actually of all the land falling hurricanes that formed in the eastern or central carrib since the upswing in 95
thier really has not been that many us hits that is most formed in nw carrib the ones that formed in eastern or central carrib that hit us since 95
2002 lili and isodore 2004 charley rememberivan formed well outin the east atlantic 2005 dennis the rest were in nw carrib opal 95 98 mitch
2000 gordon 2005 cindy wilma
slu i remember 2004 bored me to death until charley then it was away we go we just missed ivan in se ms and thought how lucky we were
till 11 months later and the 100 billion dollar baby came for a visit i told my wife we should have taken ivan and maybe we wouldnt have got katrina lol ivan for katrina would have been a good trade lol
it seems..this seasaon has been just as busy as last year...difference is that the storms have been found in other places than the atlantic....not much talk about them on this blog.....and daniel was one of the most classic looking storms...anyone mind checking how the weather services and the models did on predicting their paths?..if you're on here to learn about tropical cyclones..then you've already missed the boat..it would appear..that what is of interest to those posting on this blog..are the ones that might harm people..especially those in the states
290. SLU
lol .. Ivan scared me to death too when it was rapidly intensifying east of the antilles all the way up to 135mph and was heading directly for St. Lucia but the night b4 it hit it took a more westerly course and the WNW track did'nt materialise and then it ended up further south in Grenada ... Phew!!
I still have to admit, I wish we never had 2005, because it ruined people's idea of a normal tropical season....

Maybe alot of are thinking of 2005, when they see a blobs......
July 2004 .. we had lots of good healthy waves which kept the weather watchers interested

and none formed...

In July 2006, we had four healthy waves so far, and we might add one next week, and none formed.....

so July 2006 isnt diffrent from 2004, its very similar...
294. SLU
true dat 456 ... we shouldn't use 2005 as a benchmark to measure any other season cuz it was probably a once in every 250 years kinda season. 2006 is going along like clockwork so we should be thankful for the quiet nature and hope it stays so too
456 we love our trivia in 1985 only 11 storms but
6 hit the us including elena and gloria and crazy juan and kate whichhit fla panhandle as a 2 3 days before thanksgiving and juan looped around se la and ms from halloween to early nov thats what i see this year late start very late finish
yep, there was record disturbances/invest in June and July...from 91L to 97L

but as a normal season, wind shear was high in June, and July...

August, much less september and october aint even reach yet...and we are begining to wrap up the season.
and also an invest back in april or may....
well, good night all!!!!!
300. SLU
also the long range GFS has been a bit bullish lately about a strong and developing wave/low exiting W. Africa in the 1st 3 or 4 days of August
301. SLU
laters!
The record heat in and around the US is indicative of large scale changes in the global climate. Perhaps that Saharan dust is going to be much more of an issue over the next few years as drought continues to pummel Northern Africa.

When a storm does form, it will probably be a doozy due to the buildup of heat. (OK, that's pure speculation and I hope I'm wrong.)

Out here in California today, I captured this from our almanac about 3:00 PM:

Redlands CA
HI LOW
Normal (KRAL) 95 F 64 F
Record (KRAL) 107 F (1942) 50 F (1940)

Current: 114.6 F

Link to the PWS

Now granted, that's not an official temperature, but it's blowing the pants off of our official record. The thermometer in my car captured temperatures of 115 degrees before a small thunderstorm cooled the temperature briefly.

It was humorous to see fog on a 115 degree day from a heavy downpour almost immediately evaporating. I've seen lot's of wierd weather in the last few weeks and I'm in California where normally, heat and wind is the only story.

I gotta get a camera in my car. There were huge thunderstorms forming over the mountains the other day only to have their anvils blown 50 miles down wind by high level winds! The formation was continuing, so the cloud looked marvelous, like a stair step. I guess the winds were pretty constant at high levels, so the whole top of the storm was blown downwind intact. This was a very impressive sight and something I haven't seen in 30 years here.

If I do talk my wife into moving to Houston, perhaps I'll see this sort of thing more often.

I look out on my patio right now in Colton, CA and it is still 101 degrees at 8:00 PM.

Taking Air Conditioning Bill Donations in So. Cal because I've got a 5 day old baby and recovering wife at home!
I agree with all of you, guys, 2005 isn't a comparison year....
Good night allll!!
me too
who thinks this year is boring??!!!!...lol
Not me When the Shear Lesses We will see a lot more storms I mean Look at all the Stuff we are looking at already this year I mean The thing killing all the ones that are not being killed by the Dust is being killed by the shear I think A other 2004
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
650 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-230730-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
650 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...WIDESPREAD RECORD-BREAKING HEATWAVE CONTINUES...

ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE HEAT OUTBREAKS IN RECENT CALIFORNIA HISTORY
HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NUMEROUS TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY. MAKING THIS HEAT WAVE MORE SEVERE THAN
MOST IS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT HAS RAISED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
REGION WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THIS RAISES THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND MAKES IT FEEL MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.

IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN TODAY...THERE ARE
ALSO SEVERAL VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THAT MAY SET NEW
RECORDS. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE OFFICIAL UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (LST) SO FOR NOW REMAIN UNOFFICIAL.

OFFICIAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET TODAY:

LOCATION TODAYS PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGH HIGH/YR SET

SACRAMENTO (DOWNTOWN) 109 105/2003
SACRAMENTO (EXECUTIVE) 110 103/2003
REDDING 112 111/1915
RED BLUFF 112 112/1956
STOCKTON 113 105/1971
MODESTO 112 106/1939

OTHER HIGH TEMPERATURES OF NOTE FOR STATIONS THAT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
OF A DATA BASE TO SUPPORT RECORDS:

QUINCY............106
CHICO.............109
OROVILLE..........110
MARYSVILLE........111
FOLSOM............113
SACRAMENTO INTL...110
TRAVIS/SUISUN.....109
VACAVILLE.........111
VALLEJO...........111

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE SET TODAY:

***PLEASE NOTE THAT RECORDS ARE NOT OFFICIAL UNTIL MIDNIGHT (LST)***

LOCATION TODAYS PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST
LOW LOW TEMPERATURE/YR SET

SACRAMENTO (DOWNTOWN) 79 71/2003
SACRAMENTO (EXECUTIVE) 76 69/1960
STOCKTON 80 76/1960
MODESTO 84 74/2003

OTHER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES OF NOTE:

REDDING 78 78/1938 (TIED RECORD)
RED BLUFF 77 78/1888 (JUST MISSED 100 YR+ RECORD)

ALSO...THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100
DEGREES OR MORE IN SACRAMENTO HAS NOW REACHED SEVEN DAYS. THE RECORD
IS NINE DAYS...WHICH HAS BEEN REACHED MORE THAN ONCE BUT MOST
RECENTLY IN 1996. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR AT LEAST TEN DAYS AT
100 DEGREES OR MORE.



can any one say hot? wow look at this


sonora ca had a high of 113 as well
312. 0741
it been out all over united state here in miami when it not rainy it been in low 90 to middle 90
taz just curious you are on a tropical atlantic weather blog and you constantly post about pacific systems and west coast weather are you from the orient or california?
and what ever you post on this blog that ends up being one long white blank i dont know what link it is but it really messes us dial up folks up i cant even scroll or page down trough it please keep your links on your blog.
which i never choose to look at for you never update it 1400 comments is way to many to look through not ridiculling you seemlike a nice young man just keep out those links and remember this is the atlantic hurricane area goodnight and god bless you
really.. and here I've been posting some stuff about the West Pacific storms, heh thought this blog was for all tropical weather news.
Heat? Oh, yes. And so far, yes, this summer has been dull. If we didn't have the heat to complain about there'd be nothing to say.

And what is this stuff about 'a dry heat'? Hot is hot baby. When it's over 100 is toasting time.
well "dry" heat is a little more confortable.
*comfortable

heh, heh -_-'
you are right hades nothing against taz but he seems obsessed with the pacific when the season heats up and a major storm is nearing coast i dont think folks on the alantic or gulf coast will be interested in constant blogging about typhoons and california heat wave.
mainly wanted to tell him to keep his blog updated and to remember those links he post nothing personal just cant remember the last typhoon in the pacific or hurricane to hit california lol no sarcasm meantbe glad to share my experiences with him from camille fredrick elena george and katrina they all hit our ms coastline
Posted By: SAINTHURRIFAN at 8:32 PM PDT on July 22, 2006.
taz just curious you are on a tropical atlantic weather blog and you constantly post about pacific systems and west coast weather are you from the orient or california?
and what ever you post on this blog that ends up being one long white blank i dont know what link it is but it really messes us dial up folks up i cant even scroll or page down trough it please keep your links on your blog.
which i never choose to look at for you never update it 1400 comments is way to many to look through not ridiculling you seemlike a nice young man just keep out those links and remember this is the atlantic hurricane area goodnight and god bless you


heh dr M blog of the day is talking about the hot weather and i have to be out in the 113 weather today so what i this post about the hot weather today seen ok of what dr M is talking about so whats the point dr M any one?
If the 2006 hurricane season made the record books everywhere, how come the 2006 hurricane season has had only 2 tropical storms and its late July!
ct good ? i do not no but wait in tell anug come around then thing well be cooking out there
Dhant Dhant Dhant And another one bites the dust.
Hmmm, last I looked Dr Masters has a image of a East Pacific Hurricane (which looks to be weakening) up there in his entry. This has always been refured to as a tropical weather blog. We tracked the southern hemisphere hurricanes in the winter. Hurricanes are as attracted to the oil industry in Australia as they are in the gulf...lol.

Taz has had his share of accurate forecasts, I'm still amazed at his Z storm prodiction before Wilma. He uses more intuition than most & would be missed if he was run off for living in CA.
why thanks skye wow the Z storm was some in was it well i am off
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:05 AM GMT on July 23, 2006.
a new interest spot; i am going to keep an eye on the small blob by the bahamas; it has a nice curve shape to it. It could just die out within a few hours, but I think I will keep an eye on it just in case. Remember Beryl developed quickly after everyone had written it off the night before.



jphurricane2006 Here is what the models are doing with this area tonight...

The Canadian continually has developed the this wave and forms a closed circulation but, on this run it puts it off the coast of North Carolina.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006072300&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

You can see what I'm talking about here. Notice the Dates as it says the 28th





GFS brings this unorganized wave into the Southern Bahamas by day 5.

NOGAPS continues to disoranize the wave before it enters the Caribbean by the 5th day.

The UKMET brings the wave into the Caribbean and like the Nogaps it is also nothing organized.

The North American Model shows the wave to the northeast of the Islands by day 4.







Jeez, guys,

Do u ever sleep? lol

I just got up, awakened by thunderstorms and a heavy downpour, oh say 1/2 hour ago now. Took a quick look at the satlink and noticed the weather blowing up over the Bahamas again.
I didn't realize this was exclusively tropical atlantic discussion?????

I sure have seen everything under the sun - literally - discussed here, some of it not even about weather!

I'm also thinking that weather is NEVER an "isolated" topic. Taz' 113-degree weather is related to our TAtl weather directly or indirectly. Let's not be so quick to tell people who are posting genuinely-weather-related things not to post. . . .

And besides, whenever there is a storm in our basin, you won't have to ask people to post about it. That doesn't mean we have to completely ignore the rest of the world's weather . . .
332. IKE
Check this out...."For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized cloudiness...showers...and thunderstorms continue over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas.
Upper-level winds could become more favorable for development
during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.".....


333. IKE
Looks like it might head to Texas/western LA. If that eastern trough was stronger it could pick up the SW Gulf blob and move it NE, but the trough should move out and high pressure build back in from the east.

Looks like a western gulf possibility.
Just looked at that GOM mass . . . it still looks like it will head "over the hill" and into the EPac . . . nothing seems to be steering it north.
Wow! Daniel is still going strong this morning! And it continues to head west. What a great run with this storm . . .
someone needs to tell dr masters that this sight is only about atlantic systems..seems everyday he's talking about the atlantic and all pasts of the world.
site

parts

Otherwise your statement is so true . . .

not.
thank you so much for the spell check.....can't live without it..lol
339. SLU
invest 98L in the Gulf of Mexico this morning
Invest 98L Visible pic....



Good Morning All...98L is hear.
Emilia, might become the next, Pacific Hurricane, that would be four in a row...
Do I detect a little spin SE of Charleston SC?? 32.2 x 78.3
Morning all, That BOC system sure is looking impressive.
Good Morning all!
yesterday was a perfect day boating in Bay waters - especially since most everyone listened to the mets telling us 60% chance of tstorms ...we had the Bay to ourselves. Ran from two small tstorms - found the blue skies and stayed under them until late afternoon.

This morning - got a splash of rain between 6:30 and 7:30 ...sun trying to shine through.
Pressure at 1012 and rising. Temp 80, dew point 76

-stormy
Morning all. Welcome BT.

I don't think there is any significant spin out off the Carolina coast, although models have hinted at a very disorganized 850mb vorticity riding up the coast, although I think development is very unlikely.

I see we now have 98L. None of the models are develping it that I can see, but I did not check the NAM. I think this area is too close to the coast and unless it gets some seperation then it will have a hard time getting organized.

Any other thoughts on these areas?

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Morning SJ, as a resident of the holy city I am happy to hear the words "no development" :)
This was an image made to illustrate TS Beryl, tell what you think.



they this update 98L winds 25kts and mb down to 1009mb
I think that 98L has a great chance I mean Look at it and it is very close to shore so I say 60/40 in flover of it forming and I know it is a little too sonn to be asking that but this is just my own opion
RECON is heading it to it tomorrow
coool 456 if this makes TD 3 then are hurricane year is now this geting start up the is how far in the name dos any one think will go this year
by the way where is dr m to give us a upate on this?
Morning 459. Did you catch my Hugo post after yours the other night? Loooks like we may be in for some good T storms this afternoon today :)

Even if something did develop off the E coast, it would likely slide N and NE out to sea.

SSTs along the E coast and the N Gulf are extremely warm compared to last year. Just updated the year to year comparison maps in my blog. Note that the previous year maps are set to a forward date of Aug 1st.



thank you so much for the spell check.....can't live without it..lol

Hey, that one slipped out. . . . I've been trying to forget that I care about spelling,` or even know how to spell. . .

Ah, vacation time is so precious lol.
sorry i upset the west coast and east pac viewers and yall are right if the majority of us dont want to hear about typhoons and dry heat
we can go to bob or alecs blog. 456 this boc blob might form further east and north if the convection persist. i remember in 1998 earl formed in the boc
was supposed to move nne into central la the center reformed about 5 times
nd was suppoesed to hit se la or ms it finally made a cat 2 hurricane and hit panama city fla who was not even under watches and warnings the morning before these systems are tricky down here
we will reach as a far as Leslie
Early model runs for 98L:




Also, RECON will fly into Emilia
SJ sorry i guess i missed your Hugo post...As for the thunder storms this afternoon, I hope they hold off for a bit...cookout at my brothers house today..
Here's the UCF model on 98L, it's running off the CLP5 model this morning.


Hurricane23~ thanks for posting some phase analysis on the north of Bahamas Blob. Taking up slack for MichaelSTL being took offline by the storm that wrecked his area the other night. That blob looks like it's still caught in the tail of the UUL that's been moving up the coast & that front I mentioned the other night looks to be coming for it. I don't give it much a chance right now, but something to watch.
362. cas23
good morning,new here, i'll keep this very simple. we "me@wife" live in murrells inlet sc. Been here for 5 yrs now. been very lucky compared to everyone else over the years to not get a mayjor hurricane. with the season getting ready to take off, I'll be stopping in more often. most everyone here knows what they are talking about, so i will be counting on many of you if something BIG does decide to brew later in the season!!!!!!!!!
Daniel looks alot better from lastnight.

Should be interesting to see if we get any model shifts on Emilia after the recon today.
Is there any chance that closeness to Tropical Storm Emilia in the Eastern Pacific can affect the Invest in the Bay of Campeche?
Welcome cas. I am just down the road from you in Charleston. Always glad to have new folks aboard :)

Welcome cas23! Count on us? Hope we can count on you for local observations if something comes your way:)
Anybody have a link for Emilia's models. I am thinking like 456..LOL
Weather456~ yes, Emilia is the stronger of the 2, if it is slow to move away, then 98L will be forced more out into the GOM. Tropical storms like to keep a little distance from one another.
Nevermind I found them..Doh!!
Emilia spagetti models

What~ '03 didn't think I'd have 'em:P
371. cas23
skyepony, i work in a retirement community. When a hurricane comes we can stay unless its too big then we have to stay at local hospital until storm has passed, so if something were to hit, id do my best to keep you informed! of course i hope that dosent happen.
skypony, I hear you, thanks, they are sort of like two magnets, pull a way from each other.

It will take another 12 hours to move away from the coast.
Thanks Skye!
could some one tell me how storng this 98L colud get and where it may be going and could it be come are 1st hurricne?
taz, here is the forecast path of 98L. Wind shear is forecast to decrease. Sea surface temps are hot!!!

It has a pretty good chance to strenghten but I dont know about hurricane status. Also winds in 98L are already 25 knots (30mph), with a pressure of 1009 mbar.
I doubt it'll be our first cane, if the models are correct on track. I'd be real worried if it went northwest, though, there's a stunningly warm eddy in the NE GOM.
377. SLU
Due to its close proximity to land i don't think 98L will become a significant system .. maybe a minimal tropical storm or slightly stronger and it will most likely move inland over north-eastern Mexico in a couple of days similar to tropical storms Bret and Gert of last year.
The spagetti on 98L is out. Intensity as well. SHF5 is looking agressive with near 60kts at the peak.

No problem ya'll... cas~ people in your line of work are like angels that roam the earth.
Weather456 so we have TD 3 right now?
Posted By: SLU at 10:44 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
Due to its close proximity to land i don't think 98L will become a significant system .. maybe a minimal tropical storm or slightly stronger and it will most likely move inland over north-eastern Mexico in a couple of days similar to tropical storms Bret and Gert of last year.


Not so true, as Emilia is in the EPAC, and it could affect 98L by repelling it into the Gulf.

Note 98L will have difficulties moving inland so quickly, if Emilia stays so near the coast.
Last night from 8:00 PM-10:00 PM There was none stop lightning in the distance. LAX reported a lot of lightning over there as well. Some reports of microburst in the and around the LA area.
382. SLU
but isnt Emilia expected to move WNW further away from the GOM?
Taz, that is up to the NHC, but pretty close. As pressure drop 2 mbar's this morning to 1009. and 30mph winds.

Visible shows that it looks pretty good.

IR, shows a more weaker system.
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Hurricane Daniel which could threaten Hawaii, newly formed tropical storm Emilia which is threatening Mexico, and Typhoon Kamei which is threatening Taiwan on hurricane warning.

so when will they fly in there
It burns... Temps from So Cal Yestday.

Los Angeles County coast
------------------------

Los Angeles dwtn... ... ... .101
Los Angeles int Arpt... ... .86
Santa Monica Arpt... ... ... .88
Leo carrillo beach... ... ... 96
Hawthorne... ... ... ... ... ... 92
Long Beach Arpt... ... ... ..101
Avalon city... ... ... ... ... .88

La County valleys/Santa Monica Mountains
----------------------------------------

Burbank... ... ... ... ... ... .112
Van Nuys... ... ... ... ... ... 112
San Rafael Hills... ... ... .112
Woodland Hills... ... ... ... 119
Chatsworth... ... ... ... ... .114
Malibu canyon RAWS... ... ..112
Agoura cwop... ... ... ... ... 106
Whittier hills... ... ... ... 107
Claremont... ... ... ... ... ..111
little Tujunga... ... ... ... 114
Santa Fe dam... ... ... ... ..114
Pasadena... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Newhall... ... ... ... ... ... .116
Saugus... ... ... ... ... ... ..114
del Valle... ... ... ... ... ..112
Malibu Hills... ... ... ... ..108
Beverly Hills... ... ... ... .113

La County mountains
-------------------

Acton... ... ... ... ... ... ... 105
Camp 9... ... ... ... ... ... ..106
Bouquet Canyon... ... ... ... 105
Tanbark... ... ... ... ... ... .109
Warm Springs... ... ... ... ..107
Mount Wilson... ... ... ... ..100

Antelope Valley
---------------
poppy park... ... ... ... ... .105
Lancaster Arpt... ... ... ... 108

Ventura County coast
--------------------

NWS Oxnard... ... ... ... ... ..88
Camarillo... ... ... ... ... ... 89

Ventura County valleys
----------------------

Ojai RAWS... ... ... ... ... ..106
upper Ojai cwop... ... ... ..108
Temescal... ... ... ... ... ... 111
Stewart Canyon... ... ... ... 113
Piru... ... ... ... ... ... ... .106
Fillmore... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Simi Valley... ... ... ... ... 109
cheeseboro... ... ... ... ... .109
Thousand Oaks... ... ... ... .104

Ventura County mountains
------------------------

Ozena... ... ... ... ... ... ... 107
Rose Valley... ... ... ... ... 105
Lockwood vly... ... ... ... ... 97

Santa Barbara County South Coast
--------------------------------

Santa Barbara city... ... ... 92
Las Flores Canyon... ... ... .93

Santa Barbara County central coast
----------------------------------

Santa Maria... ... ... ... ... .85
Lompoc... ... ... ... ... ... ... 84

Santa Barbara County valleys and mountains
------------------------------------------

Los prietos... ... ... ... ... 114
Santa Ynez... ... ... ... ... .106
Montecito... ... ... ... ... ..108
figueroa mtn... ... ... ... ..105
Cuyama... ... ... ... ... ... ..104
west Cuyama vly cwop... ... 105

San Luis Obispo County coast
----------------------------

San Luis Obispo... ... ... ... 93
Arroyo Grande... ... ... ... .109
Hearst Castle rtp... ... ... .87


San Luis Obispo County valleys and mountains
--------------------------------------------

Paso Robles... ... ... ... ... 114
Carrizo... ... ... ... ... ... .104
Las Tablas... ... ... ... ... .111
La Panza... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Branch Mountain... ... ... ..104
Creston... ... ... ... ... ... .115
Posted By: SLU at 10:49 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
but isnt Emilia expected to move WNW further away from the GOM?


Yes, but is how long she will take that is key here. if she takes 12-24hours, that will give 98L time to move north where SST and wind shear is favorable.

If she moves quickly in the next 6 hours, 98L can move inalnd just as fast.
RECON is for 2 morrow.
SLU, that is the current thinking. That being said, I think 03 and 456 are thinking that if it gets more organized then it would have a hard time moving W duet to Emilia. All of the models currently having it going WNW or NW as a very unorganized system, but that track guidence would likely change if it became more organized then the models forecasted.
: lightning10 you can find more in my blog of the hot weather
this keep this thing a way from the eddys in the gulf


Thanx SJ for the updated SSTs. But I beg to differ with you:). Although the extreme N Gulf right along the coast looks warmer than last year, most all other areas look cooler in the Gulf and Atlantic. The Middle Atlantic, as well as the Eastern Atlantic both look cooler (especially right off Fla). The southern and eastern side of Fla look to be the most extreme in temp difference (cooler this year than last). Also, West African coast looks cooler, and that's where a large part of last year's storms originally came from. But I'm certainly interested in your opinion too, what do you think?
agree SJ, but it will be a while before it moves.

note how weak the currents are.
and that mean it could get stornger then what we are forcasting if it dos not move march TXS watch out
395. SLU
well lets monitor it for another 12hrs or so b4 we decide what we think will happen
It will be a Cat 5 that will become stationary over New Orleans.
As 456 has shown, it will not more West because there is nothing to steer it west currently. High pressure will build back westward into the Gulf this week, as front washes out. How far it builds will determine its exact track. Catch ya all later.
*move
there is only 2 scenarios with 98L....it moves west and inland, or moves NNW, N or NNE, and strengthen

It has moved somewhat north from 8:05am EDT as this shows:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO
AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W.

Now its the bay.

so it is ovre the bay now in the water?
Morning LF.

Remember that previous year maps in my blog are set to a forward dat of Aug 1. That being said, my main point was that the waters of the E coast and N Gulf are warmer then last year on Aug 1. I agree that much of the E Atl is cooler. I don't agree that most of our systems last year came off of West Africa though. Some of them came off as week waves and strugled until they got to the Carib, butmany of them generated much further W then the Africa coast.
turtletop or storm turtle tell me its not so lol
by the way no one thought much on the history lesson i gave on earl
those boc systems can have multiple center shifts but bob and turtle top lol i did not see mayfieldsboys have a developed system here
i know they are notorious for slow reaction but listening to this blog i thought camille had just been ressurected lol
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:12 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
so it is ovre the bay now in the water?


yep, it has been there for a good while now.

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