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The Heat is on in Greenland: Support the Dark Snow Project

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 25, 2014

The heat is on in Greenland, where the high temperature on Tuesday hit an unusually warm 67°F at Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord) in southwestern Greenland. It's been a hot June at Kangerlussuaq, where the temperature peaked at 73°F on June 15. That's not far below the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of 78.6°F, set just last year on July 30 at nearby Maniitsoq Mittarfia, as documented at wunderground's extremes page. The unusual warmth this year melted nearly 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-June, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center--far above the usual 15% figure. The warm June temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer, and scientists with the Dark Snow Project are on the ice, 48 miles east Kangerlussuaq, conducting a two-month field experiment on the causes and implications of Greenland ice melt.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and climate change filmmaker Peter Sinclair explain the 2013 results and 2014 mission of the Darksnow project.

The Dark Snow Project
In 2013, glaciologist Dr. Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland launched the first crowd-funded Arctic expedition: The Dark Snow Project. The field study succeeded in its scientific mission of landing a team deep within the Greenland sheet, sampling the 2012 melt layer, and returning those samples for analysis. The results, soon to be published, showed a pronounced spike in black carbon at the critical layer, and indicated the strong need for more research. The "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? Was the record melt and record darkness of the ice sheet in 2012 a harbinger of the future? A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown.


Figure 1. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Saving Greenland's Ice Sheet is Imperative
Human-caused global warming has set in motion an unstoppable slow-motion collapse of the glaciers in West Antarctica capable of raising global sea level by 4 feet (1.2 meters) in a few hundred years, said NASA in a May 2014 press release. What's more, one of the glaciers involved, the Thwaites Glacier, acts as a linchpin on the rest of the ice sheet, which contains enough ice to cause a total of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) of global sea level rise over a period of centuries. This unstoppable collapse makes saving Greenland "absolutely essential", said glaciologist Richard Alley in a May 2014 interview in Mother Jones. Greenland's ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and civilization would be hard-pressed to deal with 10 - 13 feet of sea level rise from West Antarctica, let alone another 20+ feet from Greenland. "If we've committed to 3.3 meters (10.8') from West Antarctica, we haven't committed to losing Greenland, we haven't committed to losing most of East Antarctica," said Alley. "Those are still out there for us. And if anything, this new news just makes our decisions more important, and more powerful." Unfortunately, the Greenland Ice Sheet is much more vulnerable to melting than previously thought, found a May 2014 study by Morlighem et al., Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet. The researchers found that widespread ice-covered valleys extend much deeper below sea level and farther inland than previously thought, and would likely melt significantly from steadily warming waters lapping at Greenland's shores.


Figure 2. Monthly changes in the total mass (in Gigatonnes) of the Greenland ice sheet estimated from GRACE satellite measurements between March 2002 - July 2013. The blue and orange asterisks denote April and July values, respectively. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that in general, more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. However, the mass loss during the 2013 summer melt season was probably smaller than during 2012, said the 2013 Arctic Report Card.

Support for the Dark Snow Hypothesis
Observational evidence for the Dark Snow project's hypothesis that upwind forest fires might darken the Greenland Ice Sheet and cause significant melting was provided by a May 2014 paper by Keegan et al., Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Their ice core study found that black carbon from forest fires helped caused a rare, near-ice-sheet-wide surface melt event that melted 97% of Greenland's surface on July 11 - 12 2012, and a similar event in 1889. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, the results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century.

Another factor contributing to a darker Greenland Ice Sheet and more melting may be additional wind-blown dust landing on the ice, according to a June 2014 study, Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland's darkening since 2009. In an interview with ClimateWire, lead author Marie Dumont of France’s meteorological agency said, "Our hypothesis is that now that seasonal snow cover in the Arctic is retreating earlier than before, and bare soil is available earlier in the Spring for dust transport."

Related Jeff Masters blog posts
Slow-Motion Collapse of West Antarctic Glaciers is Unstoppable, 2 New Studies Say (May 13, 2014)
Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland (April 26, 2013)
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website has good resources for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 2. In a follow-up video, Dark Snow Project communications director Peter Sinclair explains how the recent finding of unstoppable West Antarctic glacial melt makes the saving of Greenland's glaciers absolutely essential.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to consider a tax-deductible donation to the Dark Snow Project. The project has already raised $30,000, and hopes to raise another $10,000. One of the major uses for the money will be to pay for the portable Internet satellite gear needed to do regular posting, messaging, and skyping from the ice during July and August. The June 22 update from Dr. Box, as posted in Peter Sinclair's blog: "We saw a water fountain on the horizon, spouting to 100 feet above the surface. I think it is either a lot of water trying to fall down a small moulin cavitating, or a river on the ice sheet taking a violent turn. The spout lasted at least 18 hours!"

The tropics are still quiet and expected to remain so over the next five days, so I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Glaciers Sea level rise Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Germany wins 1-0 but we're out of the group of death. Phew.
Quoting 459. Climate175:

TWC is saying the conditions are favorable for development.
I saw that to on the TWC and very warm water to
Quoting 497. ncstorm:



the CMC has rain over coastal NC/SC for three days with that system..
Do you think the Northern Solution to the system is correct?
Quoting weatheringpoints:

Utterly ridiculous concept.


Solar freaking roadways are they real?


Solar Roadways, IMPORTANT QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS


Solar Roadways, a VERY expensive joke?





Correct. It's a cool idea that simply can't work. All you have to do is apply what we know about material science and electrical production and transport to know this really cool idea can't work.
Quoting 497. ncstorm:



the CMC has rain over coastal NC/SC for three days with that system..


You could get some heavy rain with a system like that.

Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, the results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century.

-----

Smaller forest fires actually help prevent larger fires from happening.

Proper harvesting and management, often hindered by over-zealous environmentalists, actually helps reduce forest fire size, reduce maximum pollution, and increase maximum economic output.

Prolonged below average precipitation (multi-year, not one or two years,) produces a negative feedback in forest fire rate, because you can't burn biomass (wood and foliage) that doesn't exist. This isn't really a "good" thing, it just means it's self-limiting within the life time of the solar system.

It takes 20 to 30 years or more for enough trees to grow back in an area to produce a large fire. Just burning brush or grasses wouldn't produce nearly as much pollution (in a single year anyway) as a forest fire.

If a region starts to be consistently drier than average, over several years or decades, the maximum pollution from a forest fire actually goes down due to less fuel to burn. Then you have to worry more about issues of invasive, hardier species, but that could be a good thing if they are the right type of invasive species, or desertification, but desert soil actually has a net cooling effect due to the much higher albedo (0.3) as compared to biomass (0.1 to 0.2). Of course, that too is limited by the assumption of the Carbon Cycle somehow making up for lost plant and algae mass somewhere else, which could actually happen as temperatures change and regions too cold for optimum plant growth become more optimized.

Not everything is negative all the time.



If you want to fix the environment, you can start by fixing the economy, and how we define economy.

One starting place for that would be in the tax code, where depreciation combined with changing land values, in some cases, actually encourages destroying old buildings and re-creating new ones, even if they are copies of one another, even though this is a waste of resources. This is partly caused by the fact that what makes sense at the micro-economics scale for one individual or group does not always make sense at the macro-economics scale for an entire city, state, region, or nation.

Another starting place is in the definition of currency. Fix the fake economy based on a too-variable, too-easily abused currency, and you will surely reduce pollution. Please note, I haven't worked out a monetary standard that always makes sense either, but there has to be something better than the paper dollar, and the paper stocks and bonds market system we currently employ, which produces "fake" millionaires, at someone else's losses, through what amounts to little more than "educated gambling," as well as rigging the rules to favor those who are already in power. A perfect example of this is the Stock Bubble. Somehow, through bail-outs, the big businesses mostly all stayed in business, even though they were falsifying earnings reports, paying absurdly low interests or dividends on 401k plans and stocks, and so on, but the average person lost a huge amount of their retirement savings, potentially lost their house, and 20% of Americans are currently on Food Stamps. Why? Because the "official" economy is actually a fake economy, a ponzi scheme, which is designed to maximize waste, instead of minimizing waste.

It's not just about fossil fuels. It's about the dollar and the stock market. If we weren't making pollution as fossil fuels, they'd find something else for us to waste, or to use to rip people off every decade or two through some new engineered bubble.

Did banks lose money? No. They all got "Bailed out", and got to re-possess people's house and land too. They made money on both ends, even in many cases where they showed a loss "on paper".

Now the "Reverse Mortgage" option will probably be a big source of the next economic bubble, or the one after that, say 20 years from now, when the effected generations start to die off, leaving behind houses half-owned by the Banks for the "inheritance" of their loved ones. This shouldn't even be legal, but it's practically being encouraged and pushed as the retirement solution to seniors, and they have "The Fonz" as the spokesperson to do it.

I don't blame the average senior though, I blame the banks and the government, for producing a system of virtual slavery: Concentrate the wealth in the hands of a few, keep making excuses to trick or force everyone else into selling out whatever they have, viola, now the average person can't retire without selling off everything they worked for, and leaving a debt to the next generation. Turns out this is exactly how they make money.

You buy a new home. You take a 30 year mortgage. If you stick to the payment plan, then by the time you pay it off the bank has made nearly double what the loan was for.

You sell your home. The other guy gets a 30 year mortage. The banks money has quadrupled since it was new.

You get a reverse mortgage on your new home (kids are gone), the bank pays you much less than the appraised value, even though you paid nearly 2.5 times the appraised value in total, the bank made another 20% to 50% of the original value on you.

Guess what? That may not be the legal definition of Slavery, but it is hideously close to the functional definition of slavery.
Quoting sar2401:

The first question is where the group home is located. Each state has different requirements when it comes to contingency planning for events that would cause facility evacuation. Some group homes go beyond the minimum planning required and others only do exactly what's required. I'd urge you to sit down with the group home administrator she will actually be in, since the best you can get here (or anywhere) are generalities.


As a rule, when I start looking into these kinds of questions I have two thoughts - 1. for my kiddo, and 2. for the parents who come after me. Diagnoses, treatments, understandings and causes change findings so constantly that many parents and caregivers of all the adult children's disabilities just end up being advocates. Y'almost can't help it, we are each other's bootstraps. So I can find out the details for myself when we get to placement, but the idea I had was to ask the general question hoping it makes its way to Portlight's functional membership.
Quoting Climate175:
There we go.

There we go with what? The "southeast coast" is a big place. The NHC isn't even being more specific than that. We have the GFS wanting to form a low that drifts and wanders generally south to southwest while the ECMWF wants to take that same low and move it north off the northeast coast. Both models can't be right. As long as we have models in disagreement, we don't have squat. Hasn't that past month taught you this?
Quoting 510. Grothar:


Greetings Gro..The waves look spunky...Dust and shear will remove such spunk in rapid fashion.
Quoting nonblanche:


As a rule, when I start looking into these kinds of questions I have two thoughts - 1. for my kiddo, and 2. for the parents who come after me. Diagnoses, treatments, understandings and causes change findings so constantly that many parents and caregivers of all the adult children's disabilities just end up being advocates. Y'almost can't help it, we are each other's bootstraps. So I can find out the details for myself when we get to placement, but the idea I had was to ask the general question hoping it makes its way to Portlight's functional membership.

For me, getting my kiddo's situation squared away would be the most important. After that, it would trying to understand the legal requirements that group homes operate under in your state and other states. If they are not sufficient, the first thing to do is lobby the licensing agency and the state legislature to change the requirements. Portlight is not a lobbying group. They come in after an event and try to help. To my knowledge, they are a volunteer group with no legal standing with any state in the union. My concept is that Portlight is not the group that can help you with the issues you described. Many moons ago, I was a hospital administrator, a nursing home administrator, and a group home administrator, all at the same time, since we had all three types of operations as part of one complex. It was a real ball. If a group like Portlight came in, we'd be nice to them but that's about it. If it was an inspector from the state licensing agency (California, in this case), we paid rapt attention. I'm not saying it's right or even good, just saying that's the way it was.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT

A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED 700 HPA CIRCULATION MOVING INTO THE
MID-SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC,
COUPLING WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC TROUGH.
THE 00Z CANADIAN IS STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND TAKES IT EASTWARD
TOWARDS BERMUDA WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS WEAKER IS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
ITS LOCATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF
MAKE FOR A GOOD COMPROMISE AND LIE REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE POINTS
COORDINATED WITH NHC FOR A TROUGH LOCATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
SO THEIR SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. FOR QPF DETAILS AND
PREFERENCES, SEE OUR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS AND
DISCUSSION.


Finally showing at least an area to watch off the SE coast.

watch and spin
Quoting 479. nonblanche:

I'm going to toppost on this one, I have a very important question.

Eventualy, my developmentally disabled daughter will be placed in a group home. Looking at a little of what Portlight does, my question for Patrap (and anyone else involved in evacuation-level weather events) - when it comes to outreach in vulnerable areas, has anyone thought to seek out and contact the administrators or agency staff who run these homes? Coming up with "social stories" - a method for teaching more severely autistic people who can't simply learn from example or hand-outs - or meeting with the home residents for a talk on what to expect if evacuation or waiting in place is needed - would make the jobs of the carers or home staff safer and immensely easier, including medication or medical monitoring requirements in this particularly vulnerable population.

If any of you involved in this have further questions or suggestions from the parents or caregivers of autistic adults, one such forum source is www.conductdisorders.com, in the "Parent Emeritus" forum. Or you can email me, nonblanche@gmail.com, and I can forward questions there. (posting on the board here isn't a guarantee that I'll see it.)






Those are just the type of questions and input that are shared at our conferences.

Posing such ideas open a dialogue to actionable plans and other good things as well.

Thanks for the words and I'll pass this along to the conference table for discussion.



Portlight Conference, New Jersey


What: The Getting It Right Conference - Shelter and Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities during relief and evacuation efforts

When: June 26-27, 2014

Where: Sheraton Lincoln Harbor, Weehawken, NJ



Who: Portlight Strategies, Inc. and the Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation




Why: Shelter and transportation accessibility are of paramount importance to people with disabilities in disaster situations. All too often in recent events these considerations have gone unaddressed...putting the lives of people with disabilities in grave danger. For shelter operators, addressing the needs of people living with disabilities can be a complex and confusing issue. We understand this...and are facilitating the Getting It Right conference to show that shelter and accessibility considerations are not only the right thing to do...they can be done easily...and usually inexpensively.

Our goal is to help shelter operators and transportation coordinators understand that a few simple steps can effectively address most concerns.. We understand these are unique...and short term...situations....and we want to stress: The perfect cannot become the enemy of the functional and adequate. In other words...we want to give the situation another look and help you while you are helping others.

We are not going to lecture operators. We will create dialogue and open lines of communication in such a way as to give clarity to these critical issues. Our presenters will frame these issues based upon real life situations seen recently. And then we will offer effective, practical, concrete solutions. These will include check lists and references to appropriate resources. And we will make ourselves available long term to answer questions and provide guidance.

The goal is not perfect compliance. The goal is to save lives. So...let's get together for a couple of days...and figure out how to work together.

Dr. Jeff Masters speaking at the Atlanta Getting it RIght Conference, June 1, 2013

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
WILL BE HOT---BENEATH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE A NOTABLE
CONCERN. THIS HEAT GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN IN THE DAY 4-6 TIME FRAME. TRIPLE-DIGITS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AND HUMIDITY FOR THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALABAMA/FL PANHANDLE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WILL GENERATE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES.
Are the Tropics Awakening?

We are watching both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic for possible development into early next week.
UKMET Office

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 31.4N 79.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.06.2014 31.4N 79.7W WEAK

00UTC 01.07.2014 30.2N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2014 30.2N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.07.2014 29.6N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.07.2014 29.4N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

This is the strongest yet on the NCEP forecast. As I explained this morning, I would lean more toward a SW motion because of the high situated in the far eastern Gulf.



IMO, 40% chance we'll see Arthur, or the precursor to Arthur, off the US East coast late-next week.
Remember the blow-up of convection across Texas and Louisiana yesterday afternoon? That burst led to the development of an area of low pressure that has tracked northeast and is currently positioned over northern Alabama. As it rounds the northern periphery of a ridge over Florida, it should move offshore sometime tomorrow and get stuck by another building ridge to its north. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and wind shear is low. We may have something here. I'll start my odds of a tropical cyclone out at 40%.

12z JMA-weak









12z GFS Ensembles.



527. vis0
(don't try to make sense of the following, think of it as AS SciFi] ml-d stabilized Tuesday PM EDT.
Any TF  if it meanders (low steering currents) or have a forward motion towards zip 10016** (best to form if moving N/NE worst if moving NW/W as latter means TF has to fight the natural flow of "weather") i give it or them 80% TS(s) in 4 days 60% Hurricane in 6 days. back to the sane group at WxU.

**location of ml-d ,peace
The SST profile in the Atlantic right now reminds me of this point in the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which was name dropped as an analog year earlier in the year. In both cases, an El Nino was developing in the Pacific, SSTs in the MDR were below average, above average SSTs off the US East Coast and in the mid-Atlantic latitudes, and below average SSTs in the GOMEX and Caribbean. We'll see if that means anything or it's just pointless speculation (which analog year discussions usually are).

Quoting 522. CybrTeddy:

IMO, 40% chance we'll see Arthur, or the precursor to Arthur, off the US East coast late-next week.
In 2002, Tropical Storm Arthur formed from a decaying cold front.... weird to what's happening now..
thats a huge blob on the right of the bahamas..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Remember the blow-up of convection across Texas and Louisiana yesterday afternoon? That burst led to the development of an area of low pressure that has tracked northeast and is currently positioned over northern Alabama. As it rounds the northern periphery of a ridge over Florida, it should move offshore sometime tomorrow and get stuck by another building ridge to its north. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and wind shear is low. We may have something here. I'll start my odds of a tropical cyclone out at 40%.


If you mean a short-lived and weak low that goes southwest over Florida and then dies in the Gulf, I'll buy that. Anything stronger or more long-lived I don't buy.
did someone turn on a switch in the atlantic?





Quoting vis0:
(don't try to make sense of the following, think of it as AS SciFi] ml-d stabilized Tuesday PM EDT.
Any TF  if it meanders (low steering currents) or have a forward motion towards zip 10016** (best to form if moving N/NE worst if moving NW/W as latter means TF has to fight the natural flow of "weather") i give it or them 80% TS(s) in 4 days 60% Hurricane in 6 days. back to the sane group at WxU.

**location of ml-d ,peace

vis0, you're totally nuts, but I always love your posts. :-)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
WILL BE HOT---BENEATH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE A NOTABLE
CONCERN. THIS HEAT GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN IN THE DAY 4-6 TIME FRAME. TRIPLE-DIGITS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 90S AND HUMIDITY FOR THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALABAMA/FL PANHANDLE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WILL GENERATE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES.

Great. I can't imagine how much hotter and humid we can be that we have been but I guess getting over 100 will just put the icing on the cake for the month. This has been about the most miserable June I can remember. Just enough showers to make the humidity even worse but not even a hint of slightly cooler air. It's only 84 now with a dewpoint of 70. If I'm not mistaken, that's the coolest it's been in June so far, so I guess I'd better enjoy it. I'll go out and roll around on the lawn now. :-)
Quoting Climate175:
In 2002, Tropical Storm Arthur formed from a decaying cold front.... weird to what's happening now..


It wouldn't be the first time this naming list employed poetic rhyming, ie Bertha in 1996 and Bertha in 2008.
12Z Euro is indicating we could have TS or Tropical Depression near FL next week producing some serious rainfall totals across FL in excess of 5" to 10". Again this is the Euro and the GFS isn't as robust as the Euro is so lets wait and see how this pans out. At any rate expect a very wet 4th of July week across C & S FL.
Quoting 536. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro is indicating we could have TS or Tropical Depression near FL next week producing some serious rainfall totals across FL in excess of 5" to 10". Again this is the Euro and the GFS isn't as robust as the Euro is so lets wait and see how this pans out. At any rate expect a very wet 4th of July week across C & S FL.
we can sure use the rain here on the gulf coast of florida.
NWS, Wilmington, NC 2:00 pm discussion

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WAVE SUNDAY TO MAKE FOR LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FROM DAYS
PREVIOUS WHILE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX GETS UNDERWAY COMPLIMENTS OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE REMAINS OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HINDER THIS FLOW ON MONDAY BUT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS COULD HOLD TRUE EVEN LONGER IF THE OFFSHORE LOW
RESTRENGTHENS IN A TROPICAL OR HYBRID SITUATION...BUT AS OF NOW THE
NHC INDICATES A LOW CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING.
AFTER FEATURING LOWER
THAN NORMAL/ISOLATED POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF
LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THICKNESS
VALUES RISE FROM ABOUT 574DAM TO 577DAM FROM EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER SIGNIFYING A FURTHER SHIFT ABOVE CLIMO FOR
TEMPS.
Quoting 504. sar2401:


Correct. It's a cool idea that simply can't work. All you have to do is apply what we know about material science and electrical production and transport to know this really cool idea can't work.



Got a give em' an A for Effort.. Or is that an E for effort? Or an E for Egnorant or is it Ignorant? Either way it is a cool idea and it's outside the box.. That's what it takes sometimes.
it's like an iron curtain has fallen................do ya think the blob to the north east of us will be the first TS?? and is it drifting south westward?? Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 512. hydrus:

Greetings Gro..The waves look spunky...Dust and shear will remove such spunk in rapid fashion.


Downwavecaster! :)
I Hate being Bi-Polar

IT'S AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 536. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro is indicating we could have TS or Tropical Depression near FL next week producing some serious rainfall totals across FL in excess of 5" to 10". Again this is the Euro and the GFS isn't as robust as the Euro is so lets wait and see how this pans out. At any rate expect a very wet 4th of July week across C & S FL.


Isn't it a bit early to be calling for rainfall in excess of 5" to 10" across FL?
Blob.

Quoting 532. ncstorm:

did someone turn on a switch in the atlantic?








Rainbow should be banned. It notoriously makes every blob look like a monster.

If you take a closer look at weather tools, like CIMMS, most of this is pretty non-important. The maximum vorticity by SA is already over land and very far south, so that wave is not doing anything for at least a few days regardless.

Things might change in a few days though.
12z Euro..takes the Low south towards florida..sends in back north and heads inland in NC












look at the shear fall way down!
Quoting 542. HimacaneBrees:

I Hate being Bi-Polar

IT'S AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!


Is there a T-shirt for that?
Quoting 545. RTSplayer:



Rainbow should be banned. It notoriously makes every blob look like a monster.

If you take a closer look at weather tools, like CIMMS, most of this is pretty non-important. The maximum vorticity by SA is already over land and very far south, so that wave is not doing anything for at least a few days regardless.

Things might change in a few days though.


come on now..who doesn't love a rainbow?
Gem model has the Low sit out there for a couple of days then sends it out to sea....we cant know what to believe i guess until the low IS out there huh.
The 12Z NCEP just came out


From the Melbourne NWS Disco...

SUN-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AS WELL AS RECENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE ECMWF TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE
GA/FL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WITH WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
Quoting 533. sar2401:


vis0, you're totally nuts, but I always love your posts. :-)
He sounds like a Cosmic-Quantum Subatomic Particle Astrophysicist that types his posts in a kind of riddled Scientific Esperanto..I too like his posts.

Panoramic view of the entire near-infrared sky. The location of the Great Attractor is shown following the long blue arrow at bottom-right.
Quoting 552. Grothar:

The 12Z NCEP just came out





I'm not really impressed with it at this point. It's at the "look at for a minute, just once or twice per day" phase right now.
Some intense precipitation in the other colors. It is a good thing they developed color. Looking at everything in black and white was boring. When they showed a rainbow in the black and white TV is was different shades of gray. The sunsets were gray, black, white and everything in between. My all knew Lucy had red hair, but it always looked gray. A lot of people may not know this, but Lucille Ball had such perfect coloring, that back in the days of early color movies, she was used as the model to perfect the different shades. She was know in Hollywood as "Technicolor Tessie".





Excessive blobbage in the Gulf and Caribbean! Very scientific terminology for all you scientist types....
Quoting 557. congaline:

Excessive blobbage in the Gulf and Caribbean! Very scientific terminology for all you scientist types....


We prefer to use the proper term, convection, but I guess blobbage will do, give or take.
This next MJO pulse should help with this potential storm.
12z precip maps









12z CMC vorticity.
Here is an early test shot. So you see, we have Lucy to partly thank for all the wonderful colors we see today and enjoy on our weather graphs and maps. Wouldn't doppler radar look boring in gray?



Quoting 536. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro is indicating we could have TS or Tropical Depression near FL next week producing some serious rainfall totals across FL in excess of 5" to 10". Again this is the Euro and the GFS isn't as robust as the Euro is so lets wait and see how this pans out. At any rate expect a very wet 4th of July week across C & S FL.


The Euro also shows a a 500 mb trough cutting off over FL as well in the long term, either way, a much wetter pattern appears to be on the way, and it will be greatly welcomed/well needed.
.DISCUSSION...GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT WAVE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR
AREA OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. ANOTHER SAL EVENT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA MON-TUE ALTHOUGH DUST LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS DENSE AS THE ONE TODAY. GRADUAL DRYING AGAIN MON OR MON NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE DRYING
THAN THE GFS MON. OVERALL...CONTINUED HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COAST...VIEQUES
AND SAINT CROIX.

As usual...
The ECMWF is indicating the development of 2 more tropical cyclones in the East Pacific over the next week as a strong MJO pulse (and a strong CCKW) traverse the region. The MJO should move into the Atlantic the first week of July. After that, it looks like an equally strong downward MJO pulse will track across the West Hemisphere, limiting tropical activity in mid-late July (If we rely solely on the MJO).



something going on here to! I need to watch this to.
Quoting Patrap:




Those are just the type of questions and input that are shared at our conferences.

Posing such ideas open a dialogue to actionable plans and other good things as well.

Thanks for the words and I'll pass this along to the conference table for discussion.



Portlight Conference, New Jersey


What: The Getting It Right Conference - Shelter and Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities during relief and evacuation efforts

When: June 26-27, 2014

Where: Sheraton Lincoln Harbor, Weehawken, NJ



Who: Portlight Strategies, Inc. and the Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation




Why: Shelter and transportation accessibility are of paramount importance to people with disabilities in disaster situations. All too often in recent events these considerations have gone unaddressed...putting the lives of people with disabilities in grave danger. For shelter operators, addressing the needs of people living with disabilities can be a complex and confusing issue. We understand this...and are facilitating the Getting It Right conference to show that shelter and accessibility considerations are not only the right thing to do...they can be done easily...and usually inexpensively.

Our goal is to help shelter operators and transportation coordinators understand that a few simple steps can effectively address most concerns.. We understand these are unique...and short term...situations....and we want to stress: The perfect cannot become the enemy of the functional and adequate. In other words...we want to give the situation another look and help you while you are helping others.

We are not going to lecture operators. We will create dialogue and open lines of communication in such a way as to give clarity to these critical issues. Our presenters will frame these issues based upon real life situations seen recently. And then we will offer effective, practical, concrete solutions. These will include check lists and references to appropriate resources. And we will make ourselves available long term to answer questions and provide guidance.

The goal is not perfect compliance. The goal is to save lives. So...let's get together for a couple of days...and figure out how to work together.

Dr. Jeff Masters speaking at the Atlanta Getting it RIght Conference, June 1, 2013



Thank you very much, Patrap. And SAR, thank you as well - Short term, when she's placed, I'm going to see to it that she (and the other residents) have respective "bugout bags" for evacuation-level situations with "what it's ok to take on your way out" training. Out here the most likely causes would be flooding or fire (or a meth lab next door with hazmat issues), the kinds of damaging windstorms we get (as you know) aren't long-range predictable.

People with developmental disabilities have patterns of behavior under stress that can be as simple as a repetitive noise or body movement, or as involved as a toddler-scale tantrum. Managing an adult-sized body in a toddler-scale tantrum can (and has!) resulted in out-of-proportion response from law enforcement. In an emergency evacuation situation, I would have nightmares over how someone like my girl, 18, 5'3", and farm-girl strong, would need to be handled by non-family members, police, National Guard, etc. who need to handle other stressed and scared neurotypical citizens.
Quoting 565. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF is indicating the development of 2 more tropical cyclones in the East Pacific over the next week as a strong MJO pulse (and a strong CCKW) traverse the region. The MJO should move into the Atlantic the first week of July. After that, it looks like an equally strong downward MJO pulse will track across the West Hemisphere, limiting tropical activity in mid-late July (If we rely solely on the MJO).



I don't trust the MJO forecast right now. Models are all over the place.



If what you posted verifies though, then unless we get development from this coming opportunity off the SE coast or from something in the Caribbean when the MJO moves through (highly unlikely because of shear), then we may well be onto August with no storms. That's all pretty speculative though, and as you said it would mean relying solely on the MJO which isn't always the way to go as we get later in the season, although usually it's a pretty good bet for most of July.
Quoting 528. CybrTeddy:

The SST profile in the Atlantic right now reminds me of this point in the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which was name dropped as an analog year earlier in the year. In both cases, an El Nino was developing in the Pacific, SSTs in the MDR were below average, above average SSTs off the US East Coast and in the mid-Atlantic latitudes, and below average SSTs in the GOMEX and Caribbean. We'll see if that means anything or it's just pointless speculation (which analog year discussions usually are).


If that is the case then expect a lot of storms to develop near the east coast. This is reminding me of all the systems that develop in 2011 near Bermuda like Franklin,Gert, and Jose.
Quoting 524. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Remember the blow-up of convection across Texas and Louisiana yesterday afternoon? That burst led to the development of an area of low pressure that has tracked northeast and is currently positioned over northern Alabama. As it rounds the northern periphery of a ridge over Florida, it should move offshore sometime tomorrow and get stuck by another building ridge to its north. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and wind shear is low. We may have something here. I'll start my odds of a tropical cyclone out at 40%.


I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention.
The lack of decent rainfall in Puerto Rico so far this year is getting to the point of a rationing of water in the coming months if things don't get better as lakes and rivers are going down in capacity.

In Puerto Rico, D0 was expanded into the northeastern quarter of the island where 90-day rainfall deficits (50 to 70 percent of normal) has resulted in streamflows drooping locally below the 10th percentile.

Link

the spin we are watching for the weekend
Quoting Grothar:
Here is an early test shot. So you see, we have Lucy to partly thank for all the wonderful colors we see today and enjoy on our weather graphs and maps. Wouldn't doppler radar look boring in gray?





Wow Grothar you sure clean up better than presslord! ;)
Quoting nonblanche:


Thank you very much, Patrap. And SAR, thank you as well - Short term, when she's placed, I'm going to see to it that she (and the other residents) have respective "bugout bags" for evacuation-level situations with "what it's ok to take on your way out" training. Out here the most likely causes would be flooding or fire (or a meth lab next door with hazmat issues), the kinds of damaging windstorms we get (as you know) aren't long-range predictable.

People with developmental disabilities have patterns of behavior under stress that can be as simple as a repetitive noise or body movement, or as involved as a toddler-scale tantrum. Managing an adult-sized body in a toddler-scale tantrum can (and has!) resulted in out-of-proportion response from law enforcement. In an emergency evacuation situation, I would have nightmares over how someone like my girl, 18, 5'3", and farm-girl strong, would need to be handled by non-family members, police, National Guard, etc. who need to handle other stressed and scared neurotypical citizens.

Indeed, and that's a real issue. Adults like her are likely to get thrown out of a shelter for their behavior when shelter operators have lots of other things on their plate and don't have the time or inclination to deal with someone they view as disruptive. Having her dragged out in handcuffs is a very real possibility. That's why having familiar staff (and family members) that can evacuate with the clients is so important. They know their clients, and having relatives along can both help calm everyone in a stressful situation, and the group home staff can explain what's going on to shelter staff and suggest ways to help solve the problem. My staff carried their own bugout bags in their cars and were aware that wherever the clients went, they went. I also had an agreement with relatives (when there was an involved relative) that they also had to show up at the shelter within an hour after arrival. As you say, the biggest threats in your area are violent windstorms and flooding. Windstorms that don't even cause damage to the home can be big trouble if they lose power and don't have a reliable generator and a plan to keep and prepare food without power. The first thing I'd do is ask to see a copy of their disaster plan. Every healthcare facility is required to have one. If they can't (or won't) provide a copy, big red flag. When you get a copy, rip it apart and start to ask hard questions. I'll be happy to help if you need it. I'm good at that kind of thing. :-)
574. MahFL
Quoting 571. hurricanes2018:

the spin we are watching for the weekend


That is the spin that might form ?, it's certainly spinning good.
Quoting 574. MahFL:



That is the spin that might form ?, it's certainly spinning good.
Yes that spin is the low that will come off the coast.
if the system stays offshore florida might get less rain than it would without it present. just never know. only 100 hrs away. as of now the system looks somewhat like a cv african system
Quoting LargoFl:
Gem model has the Low sit out there for a couple of days then sends it out to sea....we cant know what to believe i guess until the low IS out there huh.

Largo, the the GEM is the CMC, so you'll always see the same thing from the pair. Yes, we will have to wait for the low to form so we can can some decent model initiation. This past month of ghost lows is getting tiresome.
Quoting 539. HimacaneBrees:




Got a give em' an A for Effort.. Or is that an E for effort? Or an E for Egnorant or is it Ignorant? Either way it is a cool idea and it's outside the box.. That's what it takes sometimes.


How about we make these things green and cover our lawns with them. This would be good for the drought and we wouldn't have to water the lawn, so green and green.
Quoting 569. allancalderini:

If that is the case then expect a lot of storms to develop near the east coast. This is reminding me of all the systems that develop in 2011 near Bermuda like Franklin,Gert, and Jose.I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention.


its a EL nino year or soon will be that is where the Epac will be getting all the attention if you want too track stroms that where the fun will be we will be luckey if we can make it up two 5 two 7 name storms this year
567. nonblanche

Thank you for sharing your personal situation and ideas with us all here and across the globe as well.
Quoting 570. Tropicsweatherpr:

The lack of decent rainfall in Puerto Rico so far this year is getting to the point of a rationing of water in the coming months if things don't get better as lakes and rivers are going down in capacity.

In Puerto Rico, D0 was expanded into the northeastern quarter of the island where 90-day rainfall deficits (50 to 70 percent of normal) has resulted in streamflows drooping locally below the 10th percentile.

Link


THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE DRYING
THAN THE GFS MON. OVERALL...CONTINUED HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COAST...VIEQUES
AND SAINT CROIX.
El nino years bring droughts to different areas on Puerto rico, looks like this year will be the eastern half.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Rainbow should be banned. It notoriously makes every blob look like a monster.

If you take a closer look at weather tools, like CIMMS, most of this is pretty non-important. The maximum vorticity by SA is already over land and very far south, so that wave is not doing anything for at least a few days regardless.

Things might change in a few days though.

I agree about the rainbow. I know people like it because everything shows up, including high clouds, as part of a bigger system, but it is misleading. The plain old RGB give a much better picture of where there's actually convection compared to high clouds and debris clouds. The time lapse also show how the blob is being sheared on the east side due to the high in the Gulf.

"I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention."
seriously, you are hoping for a storm.

Quoting PedleyCA:


How about we make these things green and cover our lawns with them. This would be good for the drought and we wouldn't have to water the lawn, so green and green.

Have you priced just covering your roof with solar panels? I think you'd end up with a pretty expensive lawn, although at least you wouldn't have to cut it. You also might be able to rig it up so that neighbor dog who's always peeing on your real lawn would get a little shock when he tries the same thing on the solar lawn. :-)
Upgrade from 20% is looking more possible.
"I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention"

seriously, you are hoping for Arthur. Why would anyone hope for a storm. get a iife
Quoting 562. Grothar:

Here is an early test shot. So you see, we have Lucy to partly thank for all the wonderful colors we see today and enjoy on our weather graphs and maps. Wouldn't doppler radar look boring in gray?






Adjust your set, her hair is orange, Her lips and nails appear red. Her eyes are blue. But every time she is on my TV she is still in B&W.... lol
Quoting 585. robinvtx1215:

"I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention."
seriously, you are hoping for a storm.



And there's nothing wrong with that. Contrary to popular belief, "I hope this becomes Arthur" does not translate to "I hope this becomes Arthur and causes significant destruction along its path."
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

I haven't figured out what that WSI radar is seeing that I'm not. Here's the Ft. Rucker radar. There's hasn't been hardly anything south of Montgomery for the whole period, and sure not that blob shown near TOI.

If it does become Arthur, when is that likely to happen? I haven't been following the discussion.
Quoting Climate175:
Upgrade from 20% is looking more possible.

For the low that hasn't formed somewhere off the southeast coast in five days? How much do you want to bet? :-)
Quoting 524. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Remember the blow-up of convection across Texas and Louisiana yesterday afternoon? That burst led to the development of an area of low pressure that has tracked northeast and is currently positioned over northern Alabama. As it rounds the northern periphery of a ridge over Florida, it should move offshore sometime tomorrow and get stuck by another building ridge to its north. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and wind shear is low. We may have something here. I'll start my odds of a tropical cyclone out at 40%.




DONT'T BEG!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting yonzabam:
If it does become Arthur, when is that likely to happen. I haven't been following the discussion.

It's not likely to become Arthur, and somewhere between Monday and Wednesday.
Quoting 590. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And there's nothing wrong with that. Contrary to popular belief, "I hope this becomes Arthur" does not translate to "I hope this becomes Arthur and causes significant destruction along its path."


DON'T BEG...... ANY STORM IS BAD NEWS. QUIT WISHCASTING!!!!!
Quoting hydrus:
He sounds like a Cosmic-Quantum Subatomic Particle Astrophysicist that types his posts in a kind of riddled Scientific Esperanto..I too like his posts.

Panoramic view of the entire near-infrared sky. The location of the Great Attractor is shown following the long blue arrow at bottom-right.

I thought you'd like the Hydra cluster better. :-)
Quoting 586. sar2401:


Have you priced just covering your roof with solar panels? I think you'd end up with a pretty expensive lawn, although at least you wouldn't have to cut it. You also might be able to rig it up so that neighbor dog who's always peeing on your real lawn would get a little shock when he tries the same thing on the solar lawn. :-)


My lawn is only 6 x 24 (front), the back yard is larger but is supposed to be a garden. I like the dog pee revenge Idea.
Currently 81.4F/27.44C here. went up .6 while I was converting that and I had to go back and redo it.
Quoting 590. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And there's nothing wrong with that. Contrary to popular belief, "I hope this becomes Arthur" does not translate to "I hope this becomes Arthur and causes significant destruction along its path."


first off apology for posting it twice. I have a real problem with wishcasting. I lost a dear loved one in Ike and I don't wish a storm on anyone or anywhere period. I don't care how much you all like watching these things, I like watching and lurking also, but when you say what you said, I became the wicked witch
Quoting bryanfromkyleTX:


DON'T BEG...... ANY STORM IS BAD NEWS. QUIT WISHCASTING!!!!!

He's not begging. He's not wishcasting. And stop shouting.
Quoting 593. sar2401:


For the low that hasn't formed somewhere off the southeast coast in five days? How much do you want to bet? :-)

Don't be so sure on that. If this develops, it should be within 5 days or at least close to that, so within the range of the TWO. I'm not overly impressed by this setup, I'd give about a 30% chance of development, but we could see the NHC go to 30% within the next day, and maybe as soon as the 8PM TWO.
602. wxmod
Thin blue arctic ice. MODIS satellite image of a very huge area.

Quoting 596. bryanfromkyleTX:



DON'T BEG...... ANY STORM IS BAD NEWS. QUIT WISHCASTING!!!!!


TA13 is one of our most knowledgeable members, if he's putting possible development at 40% it's not wishcasting. It's his highly informed opinion. Attacking informed opinions is pointless, and way off base. TA13 is widely respected by all here, you'd do well to try and be more informed before you spout off about members you clearly know so little about.
How ironic how Doc is gonna post a new blog tomorrow.
Quoting 604. Climate175:

How ironic how Doc is gonna post a new blog tomorrow.
Not the day after tomorrow? ;)
Quoting 598. PedleyCA:



My lawn is only 6 x 24 (front), the back yard is larger but is supposed to be a garden. I like the dog pee revenge Idea.
Currently 81.4F/27.44C here. went up .6 while I was converting that and I had to go back and redo it.


I used to mow lawns for a living. 'Care of gardens', with the local council, mowing lawns for those too elderly or unwell to do it themselves. I enjoyed it, as it kept me fit, was low stress, and paid well above minimum wage. 18 houses a day, and lots of tea and sandwiches from the 'customers'.
Dreaming of big and intense thunderstorms over my head all night !!
Quoting 605. DonnieBwkGA:

Not the day after tomorrow? ;)
Maybe, Maybe not.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't be so sure on that. If this develops, it should be within 5 days or at least close to that, so within the range of the TWO. I'm not overly impressed by this setup, I'd give about a 30% chance of development, but we could see the NHC go to 30% within the next day, and maybe as soon as the 8PM TWO.
maybe just maybe.
Quoting 504. sar2401:


Correct. It's a cool idea that simply can't work. All you have to do is apply what we know about material science and electrical production and transport to know this really cool idea can't work.


Some of his assumptions are quite wrong.

I'm not defending the solar road ways, but there are ways to make use of the space involved in roads, such as the un-used area of the median along interstate highways. The energy is a lot, and it doesn't need to be able to function as a road. What would make that attractive to me is it uses land which is currently not being used for anything, other than "wasted" space between existing road ways.

Video maker also overlooks "cogeneration" methods for capturing more of the waste heat from existing power plants to use for melting ice on roads. He assumes you'd be using only energy from solar roadways. He also incorrectly assumes that a heliostat would always be useless in a snow covered area, when they can be designed to use back-up power to tilt and dump snow accumulations off themselves, and then collect energy as normal.

He objects to solar heating due to snow cover.

This is in Pennsylvania, and it cut their heating bill in half. I'm sure Pennsylvania gets MORE than the U.S. average amount of snowfall.

Link

While he's correct that the Solar Roadways idea, as presented, is bad, he is actually quite wrong when he claims heating roads using solar energy wouldn't be efficient.

By designing a direct solar-thermal collector like this, possibly using oil-based thermal collectors with additional backing, you could channel heat energy directly into the roads, and since solar thermal is much more efficient at HEATING than the extra steps of converting to electricity, and is much, much lower tech and lower maintenance, this would be much cheaper on the whole than the method he debunked.

You know those "Sound Barriers" you often see along some roadways?


Link

Imagine now if you have some appropriately oriented so that they face north/south, and you line those with vertical solar water/oil heaters, as demonstrated above, and pump that energy into the road via a network of pipes, much like a radiator, but engineered so that the best trade-off between conducting the energy into the road is made with strength and durability.

I think the video developer is too hung up on flaws and details of a single idea, so that he misses concepts which may indeed be much more viable. If such a small collector saved a persons' home heating bill by 50% (considering there's daylight only 50% of the time,) then there is some flaw in our video developer's line of reasoning. The reason that collector works so well is it is oriented normal to the average solar angle at that location, and not co-planar with the ground, contrary to what both the original solar roads people and our critic have assumed a collector should be for this purpose or similar purposes.

I prefer a passive system, such as a solar water heater or solar air heater, because it has virtually no moving parts, and virtually no electricity involved. You may need some electricity for a small fan or water pump just to circulate air or water more efficiently, but you capture far more than that energy equivalent from the system, as demonstrated in that home made system and video.



He also forgot to take account for the ecologic damage of digging up truck loads of salt and dumping onto roadways, which makes it's way into freshwater streams. Not to mention the damage this salt corrosion causes to the undercarriage of automobiles, the damage it does to bridges, the metal in the foundations of roads and even buildings and the sewer pipes, etc, and count that against the "real" cost of using Salt, trucks, and plows...

I can even imagine a scenario where you had a flipping mechanism inside the air (or water) heater, which would work like Blinds. In the Winter you expose a black surface to the sunlight for heating. In the summer you flip a simple lever which turns over the surface of the collector and exposes a white surface, which reflects heat (no basic change from now). Meaning it collects heat when you need it, but when you don't need more heat it doesn't hurt you...

But seriously, in some cases because there is already a significant sized vertical sound wall in an appropriate location, you already have the majority of the infrastructure and substrate upon which to build a solar thermal heater. The lattitutdes where this is most needed are 35 degrees or more. During the longest days of winter the Sun is at -23 degrees, giving 58 degrees from normal. If your wall is normal, and you orient these collectors with a few degrees worth of incline you can easily get 70 degrees difference, which turns out to be nearly a perpendicular angle to the collector.

Now we're talking about sound walls that are 5 to 7 meters high, and kilometers long, and adjacent to where the heat is needed. Currently, they tend to be white, highly reflective, which is useless for winter time heating of the surrounding area.

If you do some math of that think about the energy you can get, solar angle will be about 20 degrees from normal (relative to the collection surface, not the ground), but for rough estimates that's almost the same as normal. 5 meters by 1 kilometer is 5,000 square meters.

You can get 30% thermodynamic efficiency from solar boiler power generators, and those actually have to boil water. All we're doing here is melting water-ice, which is going to be nearly 100% thermodynamically efficient if you are just using a solar heater system, and requires about 8 times less energy than going from 0c liquid water to 100c water vapor, but they use like 500C water vapor. So direct heating is much more efficient than that when all you want to do is melt ice.

5 meters by 1000 meters at a couple hundred watts, depending on how clear the day happens to be.

TLDR:

Both of them are wrong.

Using some round numbers I found that in about 6 hours of sunlight you can collect about 1/10th as much energy as is needed to melt 10cm of ice from a ~7 meter wide, 2 lane highway of the same length. Looks inadequate, until you realize you can store extra heat using ceramics or even just a big tank of hot water under ground, from the clear days between snowfalls, to help melt more ice in less time.

It's not ideal, but it isn't impossible either, because the schemes I might propose are ridiculously low tech, the technology involved is actually over 100 years old even, it just wasn't applied back then. Some black paint, pipes, and metal backings, some valves, some large underground tanks, and literally a couple horsepower worth of water pumps.

Prove it would work?

I already have! A vertical solar air heater cut a home heating bill in Pennsylvania by 50%. You don't need to melt 10cm of snow every day, nor even every week...
Quoting 588. robinvtx1215:

"I hope this becomes Arthur I am tired of the Epac getting all the attention"

seriously, you are hoping for Arthur. Why would anyone hope for a storm. get a iife
Quoting 599. robinvtx1215:



first off apology for posting it twice. I have a real problem with wishcasting. I lost a dear loved one in Ike and I don't wish a storm on anyone or anywhere period. I don't care how much you all like watching these things, I like watching and lurking also, but when you say what you said, I became the wicked witch
First of all sorry for your lost but I was just wishing for a little storm to form I don't see nothing wrong in it. I am not wishing for death and destruction I know how storms can be my mom lost two cousins in 1974 when hurricane Fifi pass close to us.You took my comment and practically change what I was trying to say. I wasn't wishing for a hurricane I just want this to be Arthur and go out to sea.
Been tied up all afternoon and just reloaded the loops; shot of the PM for me.  No imminent development out there but everything lit up like a Christmas tree to the West away from the Sal in the Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

Quoting 611. allancalderini:

First of all sorry for your lost but I was just wishing for a little storm to form I don't see nothing wrong in it. I am not wishing for death and destruction I know how storms can be my mom lost two cousins in 1974 when hurricane Fifi pass close to us.You took my comment and practically change what I was trying to say. I wasn't wishing for a hurricane I just want this to be Arthur and go out to sea.


Don't bother with the troll.
Quoting 590. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And there's nothing wrong with that. Contrary to popular belief, "I hope this becomes Arthur" does not translate to "I hope this becomes Arthur and causes significant destruction along its path."


I am very confident in this development, TA. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the first report is at least a 40%.
Quoting 607. CaribBoy:

Dreaming of big and intense thunderstorms over my head all night !!


So are we.
Heading out for the day; will note that the only vorticity at the surface at the moment is over Alabama.  Have to see how it holds together as it moves to the East over the new few days and whether it will exit at the East coast with surface vort.  I am still not certain of where/what the potential "seed" is for the NHC TWO discussion about possible formation off the East Coast in a few days:
 


Okay US, your next match partner (July 1) will be Belgium. Good luck and Congratulations!

------

Swim between two tectonic plates
BBC. 25 June 2014, In Iceland Diving, By Talia Avakian
Iceland's Silfra fissure - a crack between continents formed by the constant pulling apart of two tectonic plates - is a geological wonder. Because of this, it's become one of the world's top diving destinations, where divers and snorkelers can literally float between the North American and Eurasian continents; in some of the narrower openings, you can touch both sides at once. ...

Yesterday's video from BBC doesn't work any longer for me :-( So here's a substitute:


Euro is showing some of the highest pressure I have ever seen in the Atlantic next Thursday.
Quoting 549. RTSplayer:



Is there a T-shirt for that?


Yep..



Slightly cooler in the Midwest today. The Pacific Northwest also looks quite pleasant.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Some of his assumptions are quite wrong.


I think you need to watch the video again. It shows solar collectors mounted in unused space along roadways and on roof of car parks as a better way to really collect power that doesn't require new technology or huge infrastructure investment. Like these solar roadway inventors, your explanation of how you can melt snow with any kind of electrical power doesn't make sense economically compared to just plowing. The environmental costs of using chemicals are real but don't come near the costs of trying to melt roadway snow with electricity. The rest of your post veers away from the solar roadway idea, which is clearly not a viable solution. As far as your solar panel in Pennsylvania, I assume you clean off the snow. I've never had a snow covered solar panel generate any power. Snow on solar roads would have to be completely melted for the panels to function, and solar energy can never supply enough power to do that, especially when the selling point of this fiasco is to generate excess power into the grid.
I am not sure about this prospective tropical system; none of the models really seem to be on board with a strong system. If TA13 feels it will develop though, I am most likely wrong.
Quoting 586. sar2401:


Have you priced just covering your roof with solar panels? I think you'd end up with a pretty expensive lawn, although at least you wouldn't have to cut it. You also might be able to rig it up so that neighbor dog who's always peeing on your real lawn would get a little shock when he tries the same thing on the solar lawn. :-)


Ironically, the price for the hardware is cheap compared to installation costs, at least in my area. Last time I checked the system I was looking at would run me between $10K to $12K, but with the installation the whole deal ends up around $30K (you have to be "certified" to install a system, so no DIY allowed even with a professional electrician doing the hookups for you).
Fires linked to large-scale Greenland ice melt
Predicted increase in number of forest fires could make once rare melting events an annual event

A cocktail of rising temperatures and ash from forest fires led to large-scale surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet in 1889 and 2012, according to recent research from Dartmouth College and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“The widespread melting of the Greenland ice sheet required the combination of both of these effects – a lowered snow albedo from ash and unusually warm temperatures – to push the ice sheet over the threshold,” said Kaitlin Keegan, a Dartmouth doctoral student who was the study’s lead author.

‘Albedo’ is the scientific term for the ability to reflect sunlight.

The findings contradict conventional thinking that the melting during these two events was the result of warm temperatures alone.


Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't be so sure on that. If this develops, it should be within 5 days or at least close to that, so within the range of the TWO. I'm not overly impressed by this setup, I'd give about a 30% chance of development, but we could see the NHC go to 30% within the next day, and maybe as soon as the 8PM TWO.

I'll take that bet for the 8:00. How about $50 to your favorite charity? :-)

I do think we'll get a low but I don't think the NHC is going up on development until they see exactly what this tail end low is going to do...and when.
GEOS-5 has the high trapping the system over land & the Carolinas.. Lot of rain for them & VA.



GFS takes Douglas down to 997 mb.
Studying Arctic ice from cradle to grave

When spring 2015 approaches, sun spilling the landscape will find a group of scientists adrift at sea on RV Lance – once a top-of-the-line seal hunting boat, now turned research vessel. On board, an international collection of researchers will watch up-close as the arctic wakes, with instruments tuned not only to wildlife but to the most important creature of them all – the sea ice.

“The ice itself has changed. It’s a new system, a different system of ice,” says Harald Steen of the Norwegian Polar Institute to BarentsObserver. “Through the winter we’ll study the ice, and when the sun returns we’ll be there to study the awakening of the Arctic ecosystem.”

Steen is the project leader for the Norwegian Young Sea Ice Cruise (N-ICE2015). Scientists from the Norwegian Polar Institute, University of Bergen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Colorado State University and a dozen other research organizations will be on board RV Lance studying Arctic ice dynamics. The research vessel will go to sea late December 2014 and will freeze into the ice north of Nordaustlandet, Svalbard and passively drift with the ice through the winter. The RV Lance was chosen for its ability to withstand the crushing power of the winter ice.


Link
Quoting 596. bryanfromkyleTX:



DON'T BEG...... ANY STORM IS BAD NEWS. QUIT WISHCASTING!!!!!


Incorrect. Tropical depressions and storms can bring much needed rain to areas suffering from drought. They can be quite welcome.

And most people aren't wish-casting. They're looking a model runs and conditions and determining realistic likelihoods of development.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Ironically, the price for the hardware is cheap compared to installation costs, at least in my area. Last time I checked the system I was looking at would run me between $10K to $12K, but with the installation the whole deal ends up around $30K (you have to be "certified" to install a system, so no DIY allowed even with a professional electrician doing the hookups for you).

Solar panels themselves are what's cheap, or for as long as we allow China to keep dumping them here. What's expensive is the charge controller, inverter, battery banks, and associated wiring to go to your home and/or to a grid connection. It's a crock about being certified but I sure wouldn't attempt it without an electrician because doing just one thing wrong can burn your house down pretty quick. I've got 600 watts of solar panels on the roof of my motor home feeding a pretty good size charge controller, 6 group 24 batteries, and a 6000 watt inverter. I paid an electrician to finish the installation since there's a lot of amps coming out of that thing.
Quoting 612. weathermanwannabe:

Been tied up all afternoon and just reloaded the loops; shot of the PM for me.  No imminent development out there but everything lit up like a Christmas tree to the West away from the Sal in the Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg




Boring E Caribbean :/
Quoting 629. Xyrus2000:



Incorrect. Tropical depressions and storms can bring much needed rain to areas suffering from drought. They can be quite welcome.

And most people aren't wish-casting. They're looking a model runs and conditions and determining realistic likelihoods of development.


One thing is absolutely certain is that I won't say NO to a serie of strong, wet and well organized tropical storms coming my way, and passing through my area!

I would be soooo happy!
633. DDR
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Incorrect. Tropical depressions and storms can bring much needed rain to areas suffering from drought. They can be quite welcome.

And most people aren't wish-casting. They're looking a model runs and conditions and determining realistic likelihoods of development.

Indeed,most of the caribbean islands are in severe drought,they'd welcome a weak tropical storm or two.
Quoting barbamz:
Okay US, your next match partner (July 1) will be Belgium. Good luck and Congratulations!

------

Swim between two tectonic plates
BBC. 25 June 2014, In Iceland Diving, By Talia Avakian
Iceland's Silfra fissure - a crack between continents formed by the constant pulling apart of two tectonic plates - is a geological wonder. Because of this, it's become one of the world's top diving destinations, where divers and snorkelers can literally float between the North American and Eurasian continents; in some of the narrower openings, you can touch both sides at once. ...

Yesterday's video doesn't work any longer :-( So here's a substitute:
Great visibility but those 7 mil wet suits and ice cream headache you get from cold water just isn't worth it. I was surprised to see algae seemed to be the only form of life - not one fish. I was always nervous diving where there was no fish. It was never a good sign.
Quoting 603. DeepSeaRising:



TA13 is one of our most knowledgeable members, if he's putting possible development at 40% it's not wishcasting. It's his highly informed opinion. Attacking informed opinions is pointless, and way off base. TA13 is widely respected by all here, you'd do well to try and be more informed before you spout off about members you clearly know so little about.


Had to sign in to plus this ..thanks (Tribucanes) always have enjoyed your posts..
636. DDR
CaribBoy don't get jealous but im look at the latest model run,which shows 4-6 inches in my area within the next 4 days,if we miss this chance the airport will record it lowest rainfall in history.Lucky them im @9 inches for the month,airport has only 5.
The BOC will need to be watched in the first week of July, as the CMC/GFS/EMCWF all have an area of low pressure in/around it. The CMC even brings it up to TS strength quickly, before heading inland (like some storms from last year).
UPDATE 2-Indian monsoon revival seen in early July, lull persists
Reuters, Thu Jun 26, 2014 4:53pm BST
NEW DELHI, June 26 (Reuters) - India's rain shortfall shrank in the third week since the onset of its monsoon, recovering a little after a poor start, but farmers remain concerned as rains are a third below normal due to sluggish progress toward grain belts in the northwest. ...


For my unprofessional eyes the track of moisture towards India indeed still looks a bit poor ...

Good night everybody!
Quoting 636. DDR:

CaribBoy don't get jealous but im look at the latest model run,which shows 4-6 inches in my area within the next 4 days,if we miss this chance the airport will record it lowest rainfall in history.Lucky them im @9 inches for the month,airport has only 5.


No I'm not jealous DDR :) because I know that Trinidad and Tobago are typically much wetter in june than the Leeward Islands.

However I get really sick when St Martin/St Maarten gets 10 inches within 48 hours while I barely get 2 inches.
I really hate that!!

By the way our rainfall total for june is only 13 mm (28 mm in French St Martin), BRAVO!
Quoting 639. CaribBoy
{SNIP}
By the way our rainfall total for june is only 13 mm, BRAVO!

Hey that's 13MM more than I got in June....
Quoting 640. PedleyCA:

Quoting 639. CaribBoy
{SNIP}
By the way our rainfall total for june is only 13 mm, BRAVO!

Hey that's 13MM more than I got in June....


Wow you got 0 inch :-((

13mm = only 0.5 inch lol still close to ZERO

5 inches (130mm) would have been sooo better ;-)
Quoting 634. sar2401:

Great visibility but those 7 mil wet suits and ice cream headache you get from cold water just isn't worth it. I was surprised to see algae seemed to be the only form of life - not one fish. I was always nervous diving where there was no fish. It was never a good sign.


Sar, this is a lake inland Iceland in Thingvellir National Park. What do you expect? I just thought it's amazing to see a place where Europe and North America geographically become divided (related somehow to the soccer events, lol).

A lot of videos available. Here those from last year.
643. FOREX
Off topic question. So, even though the USA lost to Germany, they still advance to the final 16?
Quoting 617. barbamz:

Okay US, your next match partner (July 1) will be Belgium. Good luck and Congratulations!

With a fascinating video:
Swim between two tectonic plates
BBC. 25 June 2014, In Iceland Diving, By Talia Avakian
Iceland's Silfra fissure - a crack between continents formed by the constant pulling apart of two tectonic plates - is a geological wonder. Because of this, it's become one of the world's top diving destinations, where divers and snorkelers can literally float between the North American and Eurasian continents; in some of the narrower openings, you can touch both sides at once. ...




Congratulations.
What happened to last year’s Atlantic hurricane season?

Excerpt:

What happened? These maps show the main reasons: persistently strong vertical wind shear (top map), and dry, sinking air (bottom left and right) across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (black outline) from August-October—the peak months of the season.
Quoting 643. FOREX:

Off topic question. So, even though the USA lost to Germany, they still advance to the final 16?


Yes, we had more touchdowns
Quoting 643. FOREX:

Off topic question. So, even though the USA lost to Germany, they still advance to the final 16?


They did! But from now on: first defeat = total sack.

Photogallery (rain related) of the last match.
Severe Thunderstorms Hitting

With thunderstorms strengthening in the western Plains, Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings are posted from northern Colorado through Montana. Heavy rain, large hail, strong wind, and the possiblity of a few tornadoes will continue into the evening.
649. FOREX
Quoting 646. Grothar:



Yes, we had more touchdowns


Didn't mean for it to be a stupid question. I had to work all day and only knew about the tie or win scenario to advance.
Quoting 630. sar2401:


Solar panels themselves are what's cheap, or for as long as we allow China to keep dumping them here. What's expensive is the charge controller, inverter, battery banks, and associated wiring to go to your home and/or to a grid connection. It's a crock about being certified but I sure wouldn't attempt it without an electrician because doing just one thing wrong can burn your house down pretty quick. I've got 600 watts of solar panels on the roof of my motor home feeding a pretty good size charge controller, 6 group 24 batteries, and a 6000 watt inverter. I paid an electrician to finish the installation since there's a lot of amps coming out of that thing.

Ive got 4 solar panls on the roof of my store with a regulator, they cost about $500.
They suply 2 heavy duty truck batteries cost about $100 each.
From these I have a 220 Volt 1000 watt modified sign wave inverter cost $120.
Total cost about $820, now been running non stop for about 6 years, no problems.
Saving on mains supply will be about $300 a year, so it paid for itself in about 3 years.
Runs lights and cement mixer, tools etc.
Cant complain about any aspect of it.
Quoting 572. DonnieBwkGA:



Wow Grothar you sure clean up better than presslord! ;)

Please...don't wake Taz..
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off the southeastern coast of
the United States this weekend and linger into early next week.
Some development of this system is possible if it remains over
water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN
Press in a Dress

circa 2008

is true, jus quote the post and get the http..




654. beell
We may begin to see what we're dealing with off the SE coast by Saturday morning as a surface trough sharpens up just a bit at the tail of the frontal boundary. Surface pressures are still modeled on the high side so it has some work to do. ECMWF and GFS are synoptically similar.


06/26 18Z GFS 10 m winds @ 33 hrs

The surface trough may receive some support from a slight weakness (albeit semi-deep) between ridging centered over the gulf to the west and the Atlantic ridge to the east. The weakness seems to be partially tied to an elongated upper low centered over Cuba. This feature is visible on current WV loops.


06/26 18Z GFS 200 mb @ 33 hrs


Ridge weakness at 500 mb (left) anf 700 mb (right) valid time as above.

(click any graphic for larger image)

Long story short, steering is very weak in the col between the ridges and this area of disturbed weather may hang around for a few days. "Track" if you can call it that at this point is equal weight for riding the periphery of the Gulf ridge towards the west-ish or creeping into or absorbed by the westerlies towards the northeast-ish. A slow developer-but it seems to have time. Does not appear to be anything moving off the continent to aid or inhibit development over the next 4-5 days.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Euro is showing some of the highest pressure I have ever seen in the Atlantic next Thursday.


The death spiral.
656. beell
And for lagniappe, 850 mb @ 48 hrs.

Quoting CaribBoy:


One thing is absolutely certain is that I won't say NO to a serie of strong, wet and well organized tropical storms coming my way, and passing through my area!

I would be soooo happy!


Can you just let me have this weekend of camping on Water Island before any rain falls? We got cancelled last time because of it. We will be heading out tomorrow afternoon and back late Sunday afternoon.

I'm actually thinking of putting up a cam for the weekend. Does anyone have any suggestions as to what site I can use? Would love to share that wonderful island with everyone!

Lindy
659. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:


No I'm not jealous DDR :) because I know that Trinidad and Tobago are typically much wetter in june than the Leeward Islands.

However I get really sick when St Martin/St Maarten gets 10 inches within 48 hours while I barely get 2 inches.
I really hate that!!

By the way our rainfall total for june is only 13 mm (28 mm in French St Martin), BRAVO!

MMM...wow...most of the islands probably recorded their lowest June totals in history,good luck next month then,see you around the blog :)
Quoting 622. WIBadgerWeather:

I am not sure about this prospective tropical system; none of the models really seem to be on board with a strong system. If TA13 feels it will develop though, I am most likely wrong.

I'm wrong just as much as everyone else, if not more often. :)
661. beell
Quoting 660. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm wrong just as much as everyone else, if not more often. :)


But you're wrong on such a multitude of wide-ranging subjects. No one even comes close!
(except me)
;-]
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, we had more touchdowns
You people still alive,but not for long, I'm afraid...
Quoting Grothar:
First decent atlantic tropical wave, this year...
Quoting DDR:

Indeed,most of the caribbean islands are in severe drought,they'd welcome a weak tropical storm or two.
Even in Puerto Rico is pretty dry after 10 years over or near normal conditions. Our lakes are loosing one feet per day,specially in the east side of the island, the west is ok.Hopefully we'll get some rain soon,...l.
Thanks for the explanation beell. :)
665. beell
Quoting 664. AtHomeInTX:

Thanks for the explanation beell. :)


Sure, AtHome. That TA is somethin', huh?
Quoting 649. FOREX:



Didn't mean for it to be a stupid question. I had to work all day and only knew about the tie or win scenario to advance.


Just joshing with ya, Forex. It wasn't a stupid question. As a matter of fact, a few of the sports announcers here had to have it explained to them how the total point question works.
667. FOREX
Quoting 666. Grothar:



Just joshing with ya, Forex. It wasn't a stupid question. As a matter of fact, a few of the sports announcers here had to have it explained to them how the total point question works.


I'm just thrilled we advanced. Go USA, beat Belgium!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 655. wxgeek723:



The death spiral.
That's what happens when the death ridge evolves it becomes the death spiral.
Quoting 630. sar2401:


Solar panels themselves are what's cheap, or for as long as we allow China to keep dumping them here. What's expensive is the charge controller, inverter, battery banks, and associated wiring to go to your home and/or to a grid connection. It's a crock about being certified but I sure wouldn't attempt it without an electrician because doing just one thing wrong can burn your house down pretty quick. I've got 600 watts of solar panels on the roof of my motor home feeding a pretty good size charge controller, 6 group 24 batteries, and a 6000 watt inverter. I paid an electrician to finish the installation since there's a lot of amps coming out of that thing.


I was specifically referring to non-battery backed grid-tie systems. And the $10K-$12K comes with the inverter, panels, wiring, and mounting hardware.

I definitely agree with the wiring aspect. You don't want to mess around with that (especially connecting to the mains) unless you really really know what you're doing. And worse, if you manage to blow your arms off or burn your house down, there's a very good chance your insurance won't cover it.

But mounting the hardware shouldn't require a special certification. And putting it all together shouldn't require anything more than a professional electrician. But since when does logic appeal to politicians better than a pocketful of cash? :P
Quoting 667. FOREX:



I'm just thrilled we advanced. Go USA, beat Belgium!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2nd straight World Cup USA has advanced to the Knockout Stage, first time in history, and without Donovan and Altidore, and in the Group of Death. Wish they would have beaten Germany, but those Germans they are World Class, and USA not quite on their level just yet. Congrats to all the 16 teams that made it through, well deserved.
Went on a 16 mile bike ride today at Land Between the Lakes Nat'l Recreation Area. Saw 2 rat snakes, turkeys, a dead baby copperhead (looks like it gone run over by car), hawk, several deer, a park ranger, dead turtle, squirrels, and a big t-storm that was trying to catch us on the way back (it failed). Also went to Fort Donelson, and talked to a man who is a proud owner of a 2014 Corvette Stingray.



Quoting 660. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm wrong just as much as everyone else, if not more often. :)


Quoting 661. beell:



But you're wrong on such a multitude of wide-ranging subjects. No one even comes close!
(except me)
;-]


Hmm...does this mean I'm right all the time?

Quoting sar2401:

Solar panels themselves are what's cheap, or for as long as we allow China to keep dumping them here.
sar,

Recently the Dept. of Commerce announced a new tariff regime on Chinese solar panels. LINK
Quoting 660. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm wrong just as much as everyone else, if not more often. :)


At any rate, you are still a great tropical source on the blog. Severe weather and winter weather tend to be what I am best at tracking and forecasting, though I certainly enjoy watching hurricanes evolve.
Quoting 646. Grothar:



Yes, we had more touchdowns


Don't be silly Gro. It is the home runs and the three-pointers that really sealed the deal for us :)
Quoting 659. DDR:


MMM...wow...most of the islands probably recorded their lowest June totals in history,good luck next month then,see you around the blog :)


June 2014 has been extremely boring indeed
So what's this talk about a low pressure developing off the East Coast, the latest run of the GFS isn't showing anything.

Quoting 676. GTstormChaserCaleb:

So what's this talk about a low pressure developing off the East Coast, the latest run of the GFS isn't showing anything.




I was thinking that same thing. It doesn't show anything under 1014 mb in the next 384 Hours.
678. FOREX
Quoting 677. WIBadgerWeather:



I was thinking that same thing. It doesn't show anything under 1014 mb in the next 384 Hours.


Even Jim Cantore has low confidence in this. Now we know nothing will happen.
Quoting barbamz:


Sar, this is a lake inland Iceland in Thingvellir National Park. What do you expect? I just thought it's amazing to see a place where Europe and North America geographically become divided (related somehow to the soccer events, lol).

A lot of videos available. Here those from last year.

Well, sure, I knew it was a lake.






(don't tell anyone I thought it was the ocean) :-)
Quoting 676. GTstormChaserCaleb:

So what's this talk about a low pressure developing off the East Coast, the latest run of the GFS isn't showing anything.




TWC was talking about it this morning. Said there was some vorticity over the SE, and that it would move towards the coast of the Carolinas. Then they had it interact with that ULL that's sitting out there...and possible get a cyclone.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Ive got 4 solar panls on the roof of my store with a regulator, they cost about $500.
They suply 2 heavy duty truck batteries cost about $100 each.
From these I have a 220 Volt 1000 watt modified sign wave inverter cost $120.
Total cost about $820, now been running non stop for about 6 years, no problems.
Saving on mains supply will be about $300 a year, so it paid for itself in about 3 years.
Runs lights and cement mixer, tools etc.
Cant complain about any aspect of it.

I so wish we used 220 volts over here. It would make everything so much cheaper and easier.
So the NHC does watch the Weather Channel lol....
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I was specifically referring to non-battery backed grid-tie systems. And the $10K-$12K comes with the inverter, panels, wiring, and mounting hardware.

I definitely agree with the wiring aspect. You don't want to mess around with that (especially connecting to the mains) unless you really really know what you're doing. And worse, if you manage to blow your arms off or burn your house down, there's a very good chance your insurance won't cover it.

But mounting the hardware shouldn't require a special certification. And putting it all together shouldn't require anything more than a professional electrician. But since when does logic appeal to politicians better than a pocketful of cash? :P


What I've learned from housemate who did research on mounting and wiring solar panels (he is fully functional as an electrician and wired it up himself, I was the one up on the roof doing the physical mounting)...

Unless your setup is completely off-grid, your electric company will want you to disconnect your panels/shut down your system during a blackout. They don't want your juice zapping their lineworkers while power is being restored.

It makes sense from a safety standpoint, but kind of defeats the purpose of having a solar system supplementing your connection to the grid.
Quoting rayduray2013:

sar,

Recently the Dept. of Commerce announced a new tariff regime on Chinese solar panels. LINK

I saw that. It's a two edged sword. On one hand, The Chinese deserve a dumping penalty. OTOH, Solar World (which is German in the first place) asked for and got a preferentially high tariff. They will sell more solar panels because the Chinese supply will dry up but the cost of solar panels to the consumer will rise just because the supply will fall. I'm not a big fan of preferential tariffs.
Quoting beell:


Sure, AtHome. That TA is somethin', huh?


TA's a very intelligent young man. I've learned a lot from all the young people on the blog. Who seem to have their heads screwed on a lot better than I did at their age. lol
686. FOREX
Quoting 682. Climate175:

So the NHC does watch the Weather Channel lol....


They should have been watching the soccer game this morning, not the weather channel.
Quoting nonblanche:


What I've learned from housemate who did research on mounting and wiring solar panels (he is fully functional as an electrician and wired it up himself, I was the one up on the roof doing the physical mounting)...

Unless your setup is completely off-grid, your electric company will want you to disconnect your panels/shut down your system during a blackout. They don't want your juice zapping their lineworkers while power is being restored.

It makes sense from a safety standpoint, but kind of defeats the purpose of having a solar system supplementing your connection to the grid.

As long as you have a functional automatic transfer switch, this shouldn't be an issue. It's the manual switches that back feed into the utility lines because they aren't isolated from the grid. They can kill a line worker who thinks they are working on a dead line. An automatic transfer switch isn't cheap, but it should be acceptable to any utility if it's installed correctly.
18z GFS 850mb heights, vorticity, and wind animation.

Link
Quoting sar2401:

I'll take that bet for the 8:00. How about $50 to your favorite charity? :-)

I do think we'll get a low but I don't think the NHC is going up on development until they see exactly what this tail end low is going to do...and when.

Well, shucks, you didn't take my bet. I was hoping the Salvation Army was going to get some money. :-)

Quoting FOREX:
Off topic question. So, even though the USA lost to Germany, they still advance to the final 16?
Take a look at the table to the right side here. LINK

The U.S. is a part of Group G.

The Germans dominated with 7 points.

The U.S. and Portugal tied with 4 points each.

But the U.S. advanced because of the "GD" or Goal Difference factor, winning this by U.S. 0  to -3 Portugal.

In other words, the U.S. scored more goals in its three games than did Portugal and thus took second in the Group G competition.

[And if I'm wrong about this, please someone correct me. I'm a newbie at World Cup scoring.]
Quoting 685. AtHomeInTX:



TA's a very intelligent young man. I've learned a lot from all the young people on the blog. Who seem to have their heads screwed on a lot better than I did at their age. lol

Nah, I just put up a good act. My head's anything but screwed on right; ask Nathan (Astrometeor).
Quoting 690. rayduray2013:


Take a look at the table to the right side here. LINK

The U.S. is a part of Group G.

The Germans dominated with 7 points.

The U.S. and Portugal tied with 4 points each.

But the U.S. advanced because of the "GD" or Goal Difference factor, winning this by U.S. 0 to -3 Portugal.

In other words, the U.S. scored more goals in its three games than did Portugal and thus took second in the Group G competition.

[And if I'm wrong about this, please someone correct me. I'm a newbie at World Cup scoring.]

Actually both Portugal and the US scored 4 goals in the 3 games they played in Group Stage. However, Portugal gave up 4 goals and lost 4-0 to Germany, while the US gave up 1 goal and lost 1-0 to Germany. And by Portugal and the US beating Ghana 2-1 that cancelled out as well as the 2-2 draw between the US and Portugal. So you get the 3 goal difference by virtue of Portugal's larger margin of defeat to Germany.
693. FOREX
Quoting 690. rayduray2013:


Take a look at the table to the right side here. LINK

The U.S. is a part of Group G.

The Germans dominated with 7 points.

The U.S. and Portugal tied with 4 points each.

But the U.S. advanced because of the "GD" or Goal Difference factor, winning this by U.S. 0  to -3 Portugal.

In other words, the U.S. scored more goals in its three games than did Portugal and thus took second in the Group G competition.

[And if I'm wrong about this, please someone correct me. I'm a newbie at World Cup scoring.]


Thanks for explaining it to me.
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:

18z GFS 850mb heights, vorticity, and wind animation.

Link
Same set-up like STS Andrea 2007?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18z GFS 850mb heights, vorticity, and wind animation.

Link

So, there's supposed to be an established surface low in north Alabama right now? It's sure not doing much in terms of precipitation. Pressure here is 30.00 and rising. Pressure in Huntsville is 30.01 and rising.
The blog is gonna start stretching the pages if we indeed get a tropical storm.
Quoting 680. Astrometeor:



TWC was talking about it this morning. Said there was some vorticity over the SE, and that it would move towards the coast of the Carolinas. Then they had it interact with that ULL that's sitting out there...and possible get a cyclone.
Thanks for your explanation, Astro I appreciate it.

Quoting 677. WIBadgerWeather:



I was thinking that same thing. It doesn't show anything under 1014 mb in the next 384 Hours.
I should have looked at the other grids there is some 850 mb. vorticity showing up between 60-126 hrs.

Quoting sar2401:

 I'm not a big fan of preferential tariffs.
Protectionism used to be much more straightforward. When the U.S. shut its borders to foreign imports in the 19th Century, it wasn't German solar companies getting the benefit.

I guess I'll take the other side of your tariff trade.

I'd much rather have strong unions, high wages, full employment, sensible safety and enviro standards and have the cheap producers blocked at the border than the opposite.

Which is chronic unemployment and underemployment, McJobs, chronic balance of trade deficits, the race to the bottom on wages, safety and enviro standards and rapacious bankers and Bentonville Billionaires running and ruinng it all.


Quoting 694. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Same set-up like STS Andrea 2007?
700. FOREX
Quoting 696. Climate175:

The blog is gonna start stretching the pages if we indeed get a tropical storm.


I am wishcasing a tropical storm to move southwest, cross Florida then into the Gulf and strengthening
Is it possible that Greenland is turning "GREEN" again?

Wonder who was responsible for Greenland being green before?

" The oldest ever recovered DNA samples have been collected from under more than a mile of Greenland ice, and their analysis suggests the island was much warmer during the last Ice Age than previously thought.

The DNA is proof that sometime between 450,000 and 800,000 years ago, much of Greenland was especially green and covered in a boreal forest that was home to alder, spruce and pine trees, as well as insects such as butterflies and beetles. "


Course NONE of that fits the leftist "template"........ that man is responsible for climate change. But I digress.......

Low and mid level vortices off NE fl coast
Something to watch. Will need more convection.
I think this storm will be a precursor to a bigger storm in the future. Similar to Ana in 1991 and then later we got Bob.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually both Portugal and the US scored 4 goals in the 3 games they played in Group Stage. However, Portugal gave up 4 goals and lost 4-0 to Germany, while the US gave up 1 goal and lost 1-0 to Germany. And by Portugal and the US beating Ghana 2-1 that cancelled out as well as the 2-2 draw between the US and Portugal. So you get the 3 goal difference by virtue of Portugal's larger margin of defeat to Germany.
Thanks. I love it when I learn something.

For example, that FIFA scoring requires a Ph.D. in logic to fathom its inscrutability.
Quoting 702. sflmike:

Low and mid level vortices off NE fl coast
Something to watch. Will need more convection.




I think u are right.

Quoting FOREX:

Thanks for explaining it to me.
Be sure to read Caleb's #692. I was slightly off in my understanding.
Quoting sar2401:

So, there's supposed to be an established surface low in north Alabama right now? It's sure not doing much in terms of precipitation. Pressure here is 30.00 and rising. Pressure in Huntsville is 30.01 and rising.

850mb is near surface--roughly 10,000 feet up.
Quoting 701. thelmores:

Is it possible that Greenland is turning "GREEN" again?

Wonder who was responsible for Greenland being green before?


Saying "who" is incorrect; saying "what" is more appropriate.

And, just as a friendly reminder, "climate has changed before" is not a logical argument against currently climate change, nor does it provide any evidence for/against a particular climate change cause for the modern warming period. In fact, if you provide evidence that the variability in Greenland's climate is higher, you've indicated that Greenland is more sensitive to the forcings that we know cause it to change. Which just strengthens the evidence for Greenland's warmer forecast.

Climate has changed before: #1 climate change myth!
http://skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little -ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm">http://skeptica lscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieva l-warm-period.htm

Quoting thelmores:
Course NONE of that fits the leftist "template"........ that man is responsible for climate change. But I digress.......

Henry Paulson is a leftist? Who knew? :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah, I just put up a good act. My head's anything but screwed on right; ask Nathan (Astrometeor).


Ha! Y'all are funny too. Off to a great start. :)


looks like California gets hit by the remnants of a tropical storm
In the meantime.....Big Storm with rotation near Sanibel and Fort Myers Beach
NSIDC

A warm southern welcome to spring
June 20, 2014
Surface melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet in May 2014 proceeded quickly, despite cool conditions over wide areas. We continue to explore recent evidence of lower snow reflectivity, and note its likely impact on snow melt during Greenland’s summer season.



Quoting 704. rayduray2013:


Thanks. I love it when I learn something.

For example, that FIFA scoring requires a Ph.D. in logic to fathom its inscrutability.

Your welcome. I hope FIFA keeps it this way, their point system is unique in the group stage. Maybe they'll eventually expand and add more teams to the tournament. Give each team an extra game in group stage that would mean going from 32 to 40 teams.
Quoting 524. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Remember the blow-up of convection across Texas and Louisiana yesterday afternoon? That burst led to the development of an area of low pressure that has tracked northeast and is currently positioned over northern Alabama. As it rounds the northern periphery of a ridge over Florida, it should move offshore sometime tomorrow and get stuck by another building ridge to its north. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and wind shear is low. We may have something here. I'll start my odds of a tropical cyclone out at 40%.



This system is in a very sensitive predicament. Once it makes it out over water, things appear to be variable in what could occur, which will affect the outcome in whether a tropical cyclone will form or not. It's going to take some effort on the low's end, much like any early season tropical cyclone, but it is definitely a manageable environment for a tropical cyclone to form in. Overall, I'd say that the odds of this system developing are around 50% right now, given the system only has a limited time of three to four days of opportunity to develop and including the possibility that it interacts with land.

Along with this system, the GFS has picked up on what could become an area of interest in the western gulf of Mexico about 8-10 days out. Though looking at the model runs it is very obvious that this could be another one of the GFS' issues with convective feedback. This time with Douglas' convective outflow streaming into the gulf before the area of low pressure develops.

2 days before the area of low pressure is shown in the BOC:

I wouldn't discount the system altogether, but I would certainly not be fixated on a system like this considering how far out in the timeline it is.

Quoting 711. AtHomeInTX:



Ha! Y'all are funny too. Off to a great start. :)

Hey AtHomeInTX! Glad to see you're still around.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

850mb is near surface--roughly 10,000 feet up.

I know. The loop shows some kind of low being there now. If there is, it's pretty wimpy right now. This doesn't look like the genesis for a tropical system.
718. beell
Quoting 695. sar2401:


So, there's supposed to be an established surface low in north Alabama right now? It's sure not doing much in terms of precipitation. Pressure here is 30.00 and rising. Pressure in Huntsville is 30.01 and rising.


Nothing indicating a surface low in northern Al, sar. Not sure where that idea came from. I think TA was showing a ripple in the PBL at 850 mb. What might aid or spark development of a sfc low off the SE coast this weekend.
If Grothar believes this system will develop, then I'm with him, also that area is a climatological hotspot for development, so I would keep an eye on it in the coming days.
Quoting 701. thelmores:

Is it possible that Greenland is turning "GREEN" again?

Wonder who was responsible for Greenland being green before?

" The oldest ever recovered DNA samples have been collected from under more than a mile of Greenland ice, and their analysis suggests the island was much warmer during the last Ice Age than previously thought.

The DNA is proof that sometime between 450,000 and 800,000 years ago, much of Greenland was especially green and covered in a boreal forest that was home to alder, spruce and pine trees, as well as insects such as butterflies and beetles. "


Course NONE of that fits the leftist "template"........ that man is responsible for climate change. But I digress.......




Did you take into account the rate of change of global average temperature? Are you familiar with how fast the global average temperature changed when Greenland went from being covered in ice to having forests last time? Do you know how that compares to the current rate of change of global average temperature? The current rate of change is about 60 times faster than would be expected from current natural causes alone.
721. beell






From the evening soundings, not a whole lot of spin/velocity to the winds at 850 mb (closer to 5,000') at Birmingham, Atlanta, and Nashville (top to bottom).
Quoting 701. thelmores:

Is it possible that Greenland is turning "GREEN" again?

Wonder who was responsible for Greenland being green before?

" The oldest ever recovered DNA samples have been collected from under more than a mile of Greenland ice, and their analysis suggests the island was much warmer during the last Ice Age than previously thought.

The DNA is proof that sometime between 450,000 and 800,000 years ago, much of Greenland was especially green and covered in a boreal forest that was home to alder, spruce and pine trees, as well as insects such as butterflies and beetles. "


Course NONE of that fits the leftist "template"........ that man is responsible for climate change. But I digress.......


Guess you didn't get the memo about the 4 Republican former EPA Administrators who testified before Congress recently that climate change is real, is endangering our economy and environment, as well as national security, and Congress should act quickly and decisively to reduce the emissions that are causing it. But they're probably radical leftists in wolves clothing. :-)
A want a storm too... at 16.5N 60W... moving W (280) @5MPH then stalling over the N Leewards
GEM goes with a 1006 mb. in 5 days.

ECMWF is showing vorticity too.

Quoting 712. nwobilderburg:



looks like California gets hit by the remnants of a tropical storm


Bring it....
Quoting 724. CaribBoy:

A want a storm too... at 16.5N 60W... moving W (280) @5MPH then stalling over the N Leewards


Wishcasting again.....
When we lived in Greenland one of our pastimes was to find fossil remains. We would find fossils of tropical ferns and small animals. I believe I still have a few of them somewhere. This was back in the 1950's. I don't know why this comes as a surprise to people. It has been a known fact for quite awhile. Here is a little excerpt from an article when I was even younger, back in 1897.

Original source, Boston Transcript Jan 13, 1897.



Washington, Nov. 12.
Two Smithsonian scientists, Charles Schuchert and David White, have just returned from the wilds of west Greenland, bringing back valuable collections. In a region of everlasting ice and snow they have been exploring luxuriant tropical forests. Far to the north of the Arctic circle they have been studying a flora consisting of palms, tree ferns, and other plants belonging properly to the neighborhood of the equator. These forests, however, and the trees and varied forms of plant life which compose them are exceedingly ancient. In fact, they disappeared from the face of the earth several millions of years ago, and only their fossil remains are found buried in the strata of the rocks. It was these remains that Messrs, Schuchert and White went to investigate. They wanted to get specimens for the National Museum, and other objects of a geological nature were in view.

Greenland was once upon a time a tropical country. That is proved absolutely by the remains of an extensive tropical flora which are found there. Where now a sheet of solid ice over a mile thick covers mountain and valley, and mighty frozen rivers called glaciers make their way to the sea and hatch icebergs, there was in earlier days a verdure-clad wilderness of luxuriant vegetation. Together with the palms and tree ferns, there were trees related to the giant sequoias of our own west coast; also representatives of the "gingko," the sacred tree of Japan and of the Eucalyptus family, which today is restricted to Australia. Climbing vines festooned the trunks of these monarchs of an ancient forest with draperies of foliage, while close to the ground grew those curious dwarf trees called "cycads," somewhat resembling palms in miniature, in the midst of a tangled undergrowth of ferns and other flowerless plants that carpted the densely wooded areas.
Quoting 682. Climate175:

So the NHC does watch the Weather Channel lol....


Is that Lurch on the left?
I too believe this Southeast storm may develop. That satellite pic someone posted earlier over Alabama showed it all. Probably will have our first named storm by the end of the weekend. I could be wrong though.
Quoting 724. CaribBoy:

A want a storm too... at 16.5N 60W... moving W (280) @5MPH then stalling over the N Leewards



you are now on my ignore list has it seem like little pest like you dont no when two stop all ready like i said the other day you do this ever day and no one whats two here you
Evening All. Looks like an outflow boundary is sparking some unexpected storms. Wonder how far south it will make it? looks as if the boundary is outrunning the storms now. Heading SSE at a good clip.

Quoting 734. ProgressivePulse:

Evening All. Looks like an outflow boundary is sparking some unexpected storms. Wonder how far south it will make it? looks as if the boundary is outrunning the storms now. Heading SSE at a good clip.




CaribBoy needs too move two FL he be better off if he wants rain all most ever day nic storms over FL tonight and all so we pick up a little light rain this AM in CA
737. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:
A want a storm too... at 16.5N 60W... moving W (280) @5MPH then stalling over the N Leewards

With a nice juicy feeder band pulling up from south America over 11n 60w :)
Quoting 731. Grothar:



Is that Lurch on the left?
.
The high pressure to the west of Florida is very strong. I would be surprised to see a low trying to form to the Northeast of it.

Quoting sar2401:

I so wish we used 220 volts over here. It would make everything so much cheaper and easier.


And deadlier if you come in contact with a live wire at home. But you're right you lose less power in the home wiring which can be thinner (but better be well insulated). A colleague from Israel remarked on the sheer abundance that allowed the U.S. to afford more copper in building and home wiring and step down the voltage below the 220 in his country. He also lost a friend to electrocution when he was a kid.
Seems a LLV may be enhancing convection this evening. A lot happening in the Arm pit of the SE. May see something there. Like I said before 20% is pretty good odds for something that has yet to materialize.

Quoting 731. Grothar:



Is that Lurch on the left?


Thank looks like Governor Voldemort, I mean Scott.
743. beell
A little twist over the AL/GA border. Look quick beforethe loop goes dark.

Quoting 742. Naga5000:



Thank looks like Governor Voldemort, I mean Scott.


That's who I thought was in the original picture, lol.

Quoting nwobilderburg:


looks like California gets hit by the remnants of a tropical storm
Not tropical. This little bit of rain came through Oregon yesterday influenced by the jet stream circulating in the N. Pacifica at about Lat. 45 N.


Quoting 729. PedleyCA:



Wishcasting again.....


Lol always :-)

I think I am one of the biggest, if not the biggest, wishcaster on this blog...

Little bit up North in the Sierra foothills as Taz mentioned....
Quoting 733. Tazmanian:




you are now on my ignore list has it seem like little pest like you dont no when two stop all ready like i said the other day you do this ever day and no one whats two here you


Really...

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Your welcome. I hope FIFA keeps it this way, their point system is unique in the group stage. Maybe they'll eventually expand and add more teams to the tournament. Give each team an extra game in group stage that would mean going from 32 to 40 teams.
Considering the element of FIFA corruption, and Qatar 2022 as the prime example, I'd love to see the sport go the opposite direction and become more localized, amateur-oriented and less far commercial/corporatized.

Considering the misallocation of the planet's resources as evidenced by Brazil 2014 and Qatar 2022, this is long overdue. Stadiums in Manaus and Doha are instant white elephants (forced on taxpayers) the day the World Cup leaves town.

Brazil had a sensible rule in place for years. No beer in the stadiums because of futbol hooligans acting like idiots. FIFA demanded, and got a concession for InBev/Budweiser to sell their near-water beer at the stadiums by strong-arm techniques. Is this sensible progress? I don't think so.
Quoting 737. DDR:


With a nice juicy feeder band pulling up from south America over 11n 60w :)


Exactly!

Like this (but with a less intense storm, and more EAST lol) :



BUT reality is way different... :

Quoting 748. CaribBoy:



Really...


No Big deal....
Quoting 742. Naga5000:



Thank looks like Governor Voldemort, I mean Scott.


Wow, man. That is cold!!!! I knew I liked you. :)
Quoting 730. Grothar:


Greenland is a veritable treasure trove of late Paleozoic fossils, up to and crossing the Permian/Triassic boundary.

Indeed, on a topic quite close to this blog, there is significant evidence of the global catastrophe that was the End Permian extinction there, which is largely considered to have been caused by a runaway increase in global temperatures over too short a period for the world's ecosystems to cope.

It's a chilling thought that the demise of up to 95% of all species can be brought about by as little as an 8 degree rise in global temperature.
Has anyone seen Chicklit lately? I really miss her comments. I haven't seen her for awhile.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


And deadlier if you come in contact with a live wire at home. But you're right you lose less power in the home wiring which can be thinner (but better be well insulated). A colleague from Israel remarked on the sheer abundance that allowed the U.S. to afford more copper in building and home wiring and step down the voltage below the 220 in his country. He also lost a friend to electrocution when he was a kid.

220 can be more deadly but really anything above 50mA of current can kill you. I both respect and fear electricity, even though I've worked with it for many years. We had the misfortune of being the first country to put electric lighting into wide use. 110 volt light bulbs lasted a lot longer because engineers hadn't yet figured out how to make filaments that would stand up to 220 current. By the time other parts of the world began to electrify, the 220 light bulb had been worked out, and utilities understood the advantages of 220 volt current for standard single phase power. We pay a high cost by using a 110 volts standard, both in extra power consumed and more expensive wiring, but we're stuck with it now, since the costs to change over would be enormous.
Had a crazy thunderstorm here.

Central FL lightning for today..

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Thursday, June 26, 2014 at 11:26:34 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1406.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 136,708 (avg. 97.2/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 90,179 - 66.0% (avg. 64.1/min.)
+IC: 65,144 - 72.2% (avg. 46.3/min.)
-IC: 25,035 - 27.8% (avg. 17.8/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 45,771 - 33.5% (avg. 32.5/min.)
+CG: 6953 - 15.2% (avg. 4.9/min.)
-CG: 38,818 - 84.8% (avg. 27.6/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 359 - 0.3% (avg. 0.3/min.)

Total flashes: 45,438 (avg. 32.3/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 19,568 - 43.1% (avg. 13.9/min.)
+CG flashes: 3693 - 18.9% (avg. 2.6/min.)
-CG flashes: 15,875 - 81.1% (avg. 11.3/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 25,511 - 56.1% (avg. 18.1/min.)
+IC flashes: 18,333 - 71.9% (avg. 13.0/min.)
-IC flashes: 7178 - 28.1% (avg. 5.1/min.)
Quoting Grothar:
Has anyone seen Chicklit lately? I really miss her comments. I haven't seen her for awhile.
She might be too sensible to suffer through these doldrums with us. :)
Quoting CaribBoy:


Really...

The ignore list works both ways. I suggest you use it.
Quoting 746. CaribBoy:



Lol always :-)

I think I am one of the biggest, if not the biggest, wishcaster on this blog...


Not quite the biggest. One from the Caymans and Central Fl have you beat in wishcasting. Now, if we want to talk about complaining:)

Quoting CaribBoy:
Lookie! Yonder! I believe I've spotted the blob what et Texas ag!
Quoting 755. CaribBoy:


What in the world is that dry spot?
Quoting 735. Tazmanian:



CaribBoy needs too move two FL he be better off if he wants rain all most ever day nic storms over FL tonight and all so we pick up a little light rain this AM in CA


Yes Florida is a good place for weather enthusiasts but I love my island and don't want to leave...

However, I recognize that our 40 inches of yearly rain are not enough. 60 inches would be fair.
Quoting 731. Grothar:



Is that Lurch on the left?


Look like Florida Governor Scott to me.

On edit: Disregard I see this was already discussed.
765. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:


Exactly!

Like this (but with a less intense storm, and more EAST lol) :



BUT reality is way different... :


LOL exactly,a lot weaker and a little bit further east :0
Quoting 753. chimera245:



Greenland is a veritable treasure trove of late Paleozoic fossils, up to and crossing the Permian/Triassic boundary.

Indeed, on a topic quite close to this blog, there is significant evidence of the global catastrophe that was the End Permian extinction there, which is largely considered to have been caused by a runaway increase in global temperatures over too short a period for the world's ecosystems to cope.

It's a chilling thought that the demise of up to 95% of all species can be brought about by as little as an 8 degree rise in global temperature.




I know when the temperature goes from 90 to 98, I feel a little woozy.

Seriously, the Permian extinction is one of the great mysteries. Recently, more evidence is emerging that climate change due to mass methane releases from the oceans may have been a contributing factor. Although it could have been a combination of many other factors such as volcanism. What has always fascinated me is that it is one of the few instances in which insects suffered from mass extinction. It had to be something so catastrophic and unimaginable. Scary.
Quoting Climate175:
What in the world is that dry spot?


Texas
Quoting Skyepony:
Had a crazy thunderstorm here.

Central FL lightning for today..

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Thursday, June 26, 2014 at 11:26:34 PM EDT)

Skye,

You might enjoy this Paul Douglas segment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YV3nSjUPjY

[Hmmm, my embed juju seems to be on the fritz.]
Quoting 757. Skyepony:

Had a crazy thunderstorm here.

Central FL lightning for today..

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Thursday, June 26, 2014 at 11:26:34 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1406.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 136,708 (avg. 97.2/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 90,179 - 66.0% (avg. 64.1/min.)
+IC: 65,144 - 72.2% (avg. 46.3/min.)
-IC: 25,035 - 27.8% (avg. 17.8/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 45,771 - 33.5% (avg. 32.5/min.)
+CG: 6953 - 15.2% (avg. 4.9/min.)
-CG: 38,818 - 84.8% (avg. 27.6/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 359 - 0.3% (avg. 0.3/min.)

Total flashes: 45,438 (avg. 32.3/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 19,568 - 43.1% (avg. 13.9/min.)
+CG flashes: 3693 - 18.9% (avg. 2.6/min.)
-CG flashes: 15,875 - 81.1% (avg. 11.3/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 25,511 - 56.1% (avg. 18.1/min.)
+IC flashes: 18,333 - 71.9% (avg. 13.0/min.)
-IC flashes: 7178 - 28.1% (avg. 5.1/min.)



Was looking at that boundary heading SSE. Sparked off some pretty good storms up N I see. Boundary is outpacing the storms now so it should be a quiet night for those S-ward.
I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.
Quoting 762. Climate175:

What in the world is that dry spot?


I see a very dry spot near Turks and Caicos / Southern Bahamas... with ZERO inch of rain.

The NE Caribbean is not so better though... and that's not good.
Quoting 771. CaribBoy:



I see a very dry spot near Turks and Caicos / Southern Bahamas... with ZERO inch of rain.

The NE Caribbean is not so better though... and that's not good.
The Dust is a menace.
Wow, I missed that huge dry spot over TX :s
Quoting beell:


Nothing indicating a surface low in northern Al, sar. Not sure where that idea came from. I think TA was showing a ripple in the PBL at 850 mb. What might aid or spark development of a sfc low off the SE coast this weekend.

It was the GFS loop that showed the low at 850 mb, which is reasonably close to the surface in north Alabama and more than a ripple in the Planetary Boundary Layer. So far, I don't have a lot of confidence that this is going to be the thing to spark a surface low anywhere.
Quoting 764. Dakster:



Look like Florida Governor Scott to me.


Dak, I knew you would surface soon.

Well folks, speaking of mass extinction, I have got to get some sleep.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Wow, I missed that huge dry spot over TX :s


Lol. I was just being a brat. :P
Quoting 768. rayduray2013:

Skye,

You might enjoy this Paul Douglas segment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YV3nSjUPjY

[Hmmm, my embed juju seems to be on the fritz.]



Here you go


778. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes Florida is a good place for weather enthusiasts but I love my island and don't want to leave...

However, I recognize that our 40 inches of yearly rain are not enough. 60 inches would be fair.

60 inches to me is like how you feel about 40,im averaging about 100 inches per year,its really hard for for me to sit down and check the yearly totals im guessing i get anywhere between 100-120 per year,2010 i got 145inches,2011 had 127,112 in 2012 i havent checked last year but its in that range.I love where i live on the hills,the view and most importantly it rains plenty.
Quoting 772. Climate175:

The Dust is a menace.

The air quality is extremely poor, and some people are suffering a lot during SAL outbreaks.

Life would be better in the E Caribbean without the SAL.

Things are getting boring here in the Panhandle as high pressure/ridge is building in. Minimal pop up storms during the day well away from the coast. Nothing but baking sun.

How about a good, slow moving tropical system with some nice squalls and a little thunder: that would be amazing... (:
Quoting 770. opal92nwf:

I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.


Something to ponder is the Dust plume that is forecast to be in the N Bahamas by this weekend, with respect to the Low Pressure in discussion.

Night Grothar..

Still favorable.
I need to move to the summit of Mt. Waialeale.
Weaving our stories together....

Lightning and Futbol do not mix:


Quoting 748. CaribBoy:



Really...
Quoting 728. PedleyCA:



Bring it....
INDEED!

Quoting Grothar:


Here you go


Thank you my most kind, estimable and gracious sir.

By the way, can you confirm this wild story?

11 die in Futbol match in the Congo. Talk about a bad day on the pitch. Oy vey iz mir!

Quoting opal92nwf:
I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.
Umm. I'll give you 100:1 odds that July will happen. :)
Quoting 778. DDR:


60 inches to me is like how you feel about 40,im averaging about 100 inches per year,its really hard for for me to sit down and check the yearly totals im guessing i get anywhere between 100-120 per year,2010 i got 145inches,2011 had 127,112 in 2012 i havent checked last year but its in that range.


Your place is quite wet, that's nice. I think our landscapes would be more beautiful with 100 inches of rain per year!!

Some places in the Leeward Islands are as wet as yours but we can only find them in the mountainous regions. Unfortunately for me and my desperate need (lol) of rain, St Barths didn't get blocking mountains. This is the reason why our rainfall usually doesn't exceed 40-42 inches during an average year.

Some years can be wetter depending on how wet the MDR is, but so far 2014 is a bust. And so was 2013.
2010, 2011 and 2012 were quite decent rain-wise.

Quoting CaribBoy:

However, I recognize that our 40 inches of yearly rain are not enough. 60 inches would be fair.
Here in Central Oregon we get 13 inches per year on average and we like it just fine. :)

[Note: I once lived in Juneau, AK. Average rainfall in downtown Juneau per year? 100 inches. A friend finally couldn't take it any more when there were 31 days of rain in July and the temperature never exceeded 62 degrees. Alaskans don't tan. They rust.]
Quoting 760. luvtogolf:



Not quite the biggest. One from the Caymans and Central Fl have you beat in wishcasting. Now, if we want to talk about complaining:)


LOL
Quoting 788. CaribBoy:



Your place is quite wet, that's nice. I think our landscapes would be more beautiful with 100 inches of rain per year!!

Some places in the Leeward Islands are as wet as yours but we can only find them in the mountainous regions. Unfortunately for me and my desperate need (lol) of rain, St Barths didn't get blocking mountains. This is the reason why our rainfall usually doesn't exceed 40-40 inches during an average year.

Some years can be wetter depending on how wet the MDR is, but so far 2014 is a bust. Ans so was 2013.
2010, 2011 and 2012 were quite decent rain-wise.


I think we got 9-10" last year with about 3" of that during the summer monsoon....I feel your pain!
Quoting 789. rayduray2013:


Here in Central Oregon we get 13 inches per year on average and we like it just fine. :)

[Note: I once lived in Juneau, AK. Average rainfall in downtown Juneau per year? 100 inches. A friend finally couldn't take it any more when there were 31 days of rain in July and the temperature never exceeded 62 degrees. Alaskans don't tan. They rust.]

East of the Cascades?
Quoting 787. rayduray2013:


Umm. I'll give you 100:1 odds that July will happen. :)


You mean you think the chance of getting a named storm in July is 100 to 1?

Quoting Grothar@766:



 Recently, more evidence is emerging that climate change due to mass methane releases from the oceans may have been a contributing factor. .... something so catastrophic and unimaginable. Scary.
Were I to consider writing a Ph.D dissertation on abrupt methane release in paleoclimatological discontinua, I might consider the title.

"Clathrate Burps" comes to mind here.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
East of the Cascades?
Yes, Bend. About 21 miles east of the Three Sisters

Quoting opal92nwf:

You mean you think the chance of getting a named storm in July is 100 to 1?
Well, no, I meant to write that I think a month called July will happen between now and August.

It could be a long one.

Or as we used to say about wells....  they can be deep, but they are often dry.


Quoting 797. rayduray2013:


Well, no, I meant to write that I think a month called July will happen between now and August.

It could be a long one.

Or as we used to say about wells....  they can be deep, but they are often dry.




lol, i see what you meant now.
I'm in the chat room if anyone wants to complain about the weather in realtime.
Quoting 755. CaribBoy:


Dry spot over PR
801. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:


Your place is quite wet, that's nice. I think our landscapes would be more beautiful with 100 inches of rain per year!!

Some places in the Leeward Islands are as wet as yours but we can only find them in the mountainous regions. Unfortunately for me and my desperate need (lol) of rain, St Barths didn't get blocking mountains. This is the reason why our rainfall usually doesn't exceed 40-42 inches during an average year.

Some years can be wetter depending on how wet the MDR is, but so far 2014 is a bust. And so was 2013.
2010, 2011 and 2012 were quite decent rain-wise.

Indeed,the parts of the Range that arent deforested are quiet lush,a true tropical paradise.

Quoting opal92nwf:

lol, i see what you meant now.
Mission Accomplished. I got you to laugh. I'm reminded of the name of my favorite restaurant in Portland, Miso Hapi! :)
Quoting 750. CaribBoy:



Exactly!

Like this (but with a less intense storm, and more EAST lol) :



BUT reality is way different... :


For a moment I thought it was Omar but looking it better I knew it was Lenny.
Quoting 701. thelmores:

Is it possible that Greenland is turning "GREEN" again?

Wonder who was responsible for Greenland being green before?

" The oldest ever recovered DNA samples have been collected from under more than a mile of Greenland ice, and their analysis suggests the island was much warmer during the last Ice Age than previously thought.

The DNA is proof that sometime between 450,000 and 800,000 years ago, much of Greenland was especially green and covered in a boreal forest that was home to alder, spruce and pine trees, as well as insects such as butterflies and beetles. "


Course NONE of that fits the leftist "template"........ that man is responsible for climate change. But I digress.......




Milankovitch theory describes the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milanković, who worked on it during his internment as a First World War prisoner of war (POW). Milanković mathematically theorized that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth through orbital forcing.

The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time the elliptical orbit rotates more slowly. The combined effect of the two precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the astronomical seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit (obliquity) oscillates between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees on a 41,000-year cycle. It is currently 23.44 degrees and decreasing.

Similar astronomical theories had been advanced in the 19th century by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll and others, but verification was difficult due to the absence of reliably dated evidence and doubts as to exactly which periods were important. Not until the advent of deep-ocean cores and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton, "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages", in Science (1976)[1] did the theory attain its present state.

Link
Good vort over Georgia now as the low progresses it's way to the water.
NAM
Way to go Jeff to spin yet another headline. Actually, the ice on the other side of Greenland has been increasing, and has greater extent, volume, and area since 1960.

Also, how's Antarctica doing, buddy ole pal? Looks to me like that is gaining substantial ice just as well as the north pole is recovering....
Quoting 770. opal92nwf:

I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.

Why would you hate to say that? I tell you what, I think a million people along the Gulf and East Coasts probably LOVE to hear that.

I guess I could understand your statement if you want destruction and to see people's lives ruined...
nhc.website...down
The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?
wednes gfs picked up a possible cv system that would be july 8-10th a month early but interesting.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather over the weekend, and conditions
appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone early
next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure over South Carolina is
expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States this
weekend. Some development of this system is possible while it
lingers off the southeastern coast of the United States early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting Climate175:
NAM


In the past the NAM mode has gotten a bad reputation (for good reason), and it's also not the model of choice for tropical development.
But when I had a talk with a local meteorologist, he told me the NAM was a more accurate model than the GFS for short term forecasting (1-3 days). He wasn't necessarily talking about the tropics. He was just talking about general forecastings.

This was based on his many years of forecasting.

I know Dr. Masters has posted model accuracy, but don't remember where the NAM model came out.
Quoting 815. AtHomeInTX:




maybe Im getting old but I dont remember ever seeing a circle on land?
Quoting 811. RCThunder:

The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?



not down for me
Quoting ncstorm:


maybe Im getting old but I dont remember ever seeing a circle on land?


I think it's to just let us know the origin of the Low. We won't see a tropical system form over land in the Carolinas. But once the Low moves off shore, it may slowly develop into a tropical system.
I know I don't remember yellow circles being over land that far north in the U.S. I'm sure the guys with more time will find some.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY AS THE LAST
VESTIGES OF ANY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS
TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD.

...THE BIGGEST RISK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5 KT AND WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING
WITH TIME...EXPECT WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN URBANIZED AREAS. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...BUT
LOCALLY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 3 OR
4 INCHES.


..GFS/ECM/CMC ALL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. ATTM NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO WHETHER IT CAN ENHANCE
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
Looks like this time we cannot rely on model runs..not now, wait until there actually IS a LOW off the east coast..most mets say WHEN the LOW gets out there..it will stall and meander for a couple of days...maybe by sun night-monday morning they will have a better handle on where it might be going.
Quoting 811. RCThunder:

The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?


Ive found myself coming across the sites not opening also from time to time..ive learned to use the REFRESH button..sometimes that works..sometimes it doesnt.
frist time I see a yellow circle on land
Good morning. What a storm we had in Longwood yesterday as we have trees down, we had small hail, and we picked up 2.76" at my house. The wind with that storm that passed thru had a roar to it similar to the hurricanes of 04. Very intense weather yesterday on the northside of Orlando.



Quoting 808. StormingInChicago:

Way to go Jeff to spin yet another headline. Actually, the ice on the other side of Greenland has been increasing, and has greater extent, volume, and area since 1960.

Also, how's Antarctica doing, buddy ole pal? Looks to me like that is gaining substantial ice just as well as the north pole is recovering....



Lol. Nice trolling, care to share any evidence? I'd be interested to see it since it doesn't exist.

North Pole recovery? Please show me on the chart where you find one...



The Greenland Ice sheet has lost mass and the rate has doubled over the past 9 years.



Antarctica is also losing land ice.



While the increase in Southern Hemisphere sea ice is directly related to a warming world: Link

So, "buddy ole pal" get your facts straight.
Good Morning.  Agree with the comment below.  Low was positioned over Alabama yesterday, with good vort, and now they Yellow the low over the Carolinas.  Still a bit confused as to what they looked at three days ago making referenced to a possible low off the Coast; now we know I suppose.
It seems like most of the models except the GFS take this low as it comes off shore and takes it out to sea.
Here is the CIMSS lower level 850mb vort profile for today showing the vorticity in the general location; the rest of the Atlantic is clear as a bell.
 

Quoting RCThunder:
The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?
They've been fast loading and readily available here. No downtime via my ISP. I'd suspect you've got local congestion. You might check with your ISP.
There is no Tutt cell currently situated at the upper levels off the coast of the Carolinas (200mb) to dry it out with sinking air so it could develop if it lingers and shear remains low.  I am thinking it would circle the A-B high ridge and move off to sea if it does; just my personal opinion:

SOI is tanking right now with a daily value of -24.3. It appears the atmosphere is in an
El-Nino state now and this thing could be declared in July.

Another westerly wind burst appears to moving across the Dateline.

Quoting 809. StormingInChicago:

Why would you hate to say that? I tell you what, I think a million people along the Gulf and East Coasts probably LOVE to hear that.

I guess I could understand your statement if you want destruction and to see people's lives ruined...

Good Lord...are you for real? NO ONE on this tropical blog wants death, doom and destrcution, but we DO want tropical cyclones to form so we can follow their development with the sincerest wish that they are just "fish storms" and no threat to land. Get off you high horse and just enjoy the chat on this blog.


Quoting Naga5000:

Lol. Nice trolling, care to share any evidence? I'd be interested to see it since it doesn't exist.

North Pole recovery? Please show me on the chart where you find one...

The Greenland Ice sheet has lost mass and the rate has doubled over the past 9 years.

Antarctica is also losing land ice.

While the increase in Southern Hemisphere sea ice is directly related to a warming world: Link

So, "buddy ole pal" get your facts straight.
Naga,

Nice rebuttal. I believe our problem though might be that "Alyssa" from Chicago is impervious to facts.

Alyssa reminds me of the fellows in the truck, not the girl on the curb in this video of Alyssa like consciousness:


Quoting 833. CitikatzSouthFL:


Good Lord...are you for real? NO ONE on this tropical blog wants death, doom and destrcution, but we DO want tropical cyclones to form so we can follow their development with the sincerest wish that they are just "fish storms" and no threat to land. Get off you high horse and just enjoy the chat on this blog.



why are some of you Quoteing him when most of us got in on ignore list
World Meteorological Organization press release, June 26, 2014

WMO Update: Prepare for El Niño

In brief:

"Geneva, 26 June 2014 (WMO) - There is a 60% likelihood of an El Niño
being fully established between June and August, increasing to 75-80%
for the October to December period, according to an El Niño Update
issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Based on advice
from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, many governments
have already started preparing for the arrival of El Niño, which is
associated with regional-scale drought and flood situations in different
parts of the world and has a warming influence on global average
surface temperatures."

Quoting 832. StormTrackerScott:

SOI is tanking right now with a daily value of -24.3. It appears the atmosphere is in an
El-Nino state now and this thing could be declared in July.

Another westerly wind burst appears to moving across the Dateline.




hi


could this SOI map be broken then? has its still showing 8.2 for SOI has soon has i post it on here it shows 4.4 for SOI but i still think the map is broken




838. MahFL
Quoting 817. ncstorm:

maybe Im getting old but I dont remember ever seeing a circle on land?


It happens regularly.
Quoting 837. Tazmanian:



hi


could this SOI map be broken then? has its still showing +8.2 for SOI







30 day average I believe is now at 2 when it was over 8 last week.
Quoting 835. Tazmanian:




why are some of you Quoteing him when most of us got in on ignore list


Public shaming, Taz. :)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I think it's to just let us know the origin of the Low. We won't see a tropical system form over land in the Carolinas. But once the Low moves off shore, it may slowly develop into a tropical system.
I know I don't remember yellow circles being over land that far north in the U.S. I'm sure the guys with more time will find some.


I remember seeing one about two hundred miles inland of Africa and went orange wile still 20-50 miles inland. Will try to find the map, worked 16 hours yesterday in the heat so taking the day off today :)
2C anomalies now being depicted for Nino 3.4 in the OND timeframe. This is a big change from earlier this month when this model was showing a weak el-nino.

OK I am staying by my pre season forecast. This is the first time I ever tried to actually make a semi educated guess at this. For the record. Still a long time to go.

If necessary I like my crow in a pie!

15 named storms
7 canes
1 cat four or five
2 named systems hitting US 1 at least a cat two
Quoting 842. StormTrackerScott:

2C anomalies now being depicted for Nino 3.4 in the OND timeframe. This is a big change from earlier this month when this model was showing a weak el-nino.





but do we no where EL nino will set up yet?
Quoting 843. Autistic2:

OK I am staying by my pre season forecast. This is the first time I ever tried to actually make a semi educated guess at this. For the record. Still a long time to go.

If necessary I like my crow in a pie!

15 named storms
7 canes
1 cat four or five
2 named systems hitting US 1 at least a cat two





get ready for some crow has that will be wrong will be luckey if we get 5 two 7 name storms this year
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-x7pZcFeZ-0Q/Uh9UuZC0qXI/A AAAAAAAPmE/quudULqyQU4/s1600/2yellow.gif

8 am August 29 2013 yellow over Africa but not the one I remember
Quoting Tazmanian:




get ready for some crow has that will be wrong will be luckey if we get 5 two 7 name storms this year


I know.....but when I joined this blog in 08 my tropical genesis knowledge was 0 on a sale of 1-100. Now it is probably a 30 :(. but trying.

Whis Levi would make another video just updating his thoughts on the season. I always watch them 3 or 4 times as he breaks things down real good!
look at that moisture streaming to LA
Quoting 704. rayduray2013:


Thanks. I love it when I learn something.

For example, that FIFA scoring requires a Ph.D. in logic to fathom its inscrutability.



Have you seen the NFL tiebreaker rules? http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Daniel Noah, meteorologist N.O.A.A. coming to our library today to talk on Florida Weather with the kids! So excited that he has agreed to come and share the excitement of weather science with my young 'uns! Daniel if you see this post, thanks again! Can't wait to see you!

Quoting SouthTampa:


Have you seen the NFL tiebreaker rules? http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Thanks. This is the first time I've seen that page. I note the ultimate importance of coin tosses. :)


Stratocumulus clouds in the sky means that it's very dry.... we often see those clouds in the Canary Islands.
latest cfsv2 forecast....means is still under 1.5.......

tradewinds in the ENSO region are mixed.....in the far eastern section of quadrant 3...and in 1 &2...there's still an eastward push coming from the south...however in the 3.4 section and section 4....strong winds to the west have once again picked up.......el nino still not acting as he should....you can see the tradewinds here
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 27 Jun 7:09 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 27 Jun 7:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
27 Jun 7:00 am PDT 55 53 92 ENE 2G04 OK

Coastal Eddy in play again this morning. 66.6F here...
you can see a result of the tradewinds picking up in the daily values of the ENSO 3.4 region.....in the last 12 hours the anomaly has dropped 0.15 c to where it is now under 1.0 c....the week should end up averaging at about a 1.0 c value...which is quite impressive.....we're just once again seeing...that this is a long term event...and something that we can watch daily...but need the patience to realize daily values contain a lot of "noise"


Drifting Continents Caused the Quaternary Ice Age 2.6 Million Years Ago

“Until now, the cause of the Quaternary ice age had been a hotly debated topic,” said Thomas Stevens, one of the researchers, in a news release. “Our findings suggest a significant link between ice sheet growth, the monsoon and the closing of the Panama Seaway, as North and South America drifted closer together. This provides us with a major new theory on the origins of the ice age, and ultimately our current climate system.”
More specifically, the scientists found that the joining of North and South America changed the salinity of the Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, caused major ice sheet growth across the Northern Hemisphere since the change in salinity encouraged sea ice to form. The sea ice then changed wind patterns and lead to increased and intensified monsoons, which caused an increase in snowfall.


Link
I told you so; I told you so!!!

Quoting 811. RCThunder:

The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?


I think there is an inherent glitch in their website .... try clicking on the graph to enlarge it; often, as it enlarges, it updates to the latest version.
Quoting 861. Grothar:
I told you so; I told you so!!!



Hi Gro,
What do you think this will be if it lands in East central Florida? Will it be just a 'low' that will saturate us or something else?

Thanks.
and just in time to explain noise.....climate gives us their latest enso blog

The ENSO Signal and The Noise
Author: Michelle L'Heureux
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book. In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general. Very generally:

(1) Signal: Signal is the part of the forecast that can be predicted if one were to build a perfect climate model (for example, physical relationships between and within the ocean and atmosphere are perfectly understood and coded into the model). In seasonal climate prediction, signal can arise from the surface conditions, such as sea surface temperatures, land cover, or sea ice, which vary more slowly than faster atmospheric motions.

(2) Noise: Noise is the part of the forecast that cannot be predicted. Despite having a perfect model and understanding of the physical system, there will always be some uncertainty associated with the forecast because imprecise observations made at the time of the forecast (also known as errors in initial conditions) will grow into the future. Think of the noise as akin to the famous “butterfly flaps its wings” example – a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and the ripple effect contributes to a tornado in Texas (Lorenz, 1963, 1972).

Now how does this help us understand ENSO predictions? Obviously, we do not have perfect models at our fingertips. However, the concepts of signal and noise are still helpful to interpreting model forecasts and the expected uncertainty around them. Here is a recent forecast from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2):


CFSv2 forecasts initialized from 12-21 June 2014 for Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. The model data has been statistically (PDF) corrected and updates are provided here. Map by NOAA Climate.gov based on data provided by Wanqiu Wang, CPC.
The forecast model is started using recent observations (started at slightly different moments in time) that are measured by satellites, buoys, etc. and then the model is run forward out to 8 seasons (here, any 3-month average is a season). Each individual, grey line in the figure is referred to as a model member and represents one possible outcome, based on just one initial condition at one time. All of the members averaged together is called the ensemble mean and is shown by the dashed, red line. In the figure above, the start dates range from June 12 through 21 (10 days), run from 4 different start times each day, so 10 x 4 = 40 members.

The ensemble mean is the model’s estimate of the signal, which is one predictable part of the forecast (1). However, clearly, the individual members show a wide variety, or spread, of possible outcomes. One can expect the actual reality will have the same characteristics as any one of those members. In theory, each member has the same probability of occurring. We ENSO forecasters bet that the future has a higher chance of being closer to where the members cluster together near the ensemble average (red dashed line), but the fact is, the future conditions could be closest to any one of the model members (grey lines).

Many folks will consider the forecast to be a failure when it does not match the expected signal (the ensemble mean), but the observed reality will always be some combination of signal + noise. This is why ENSO and climate outlooks are expressed in terms of probability (i.e. what is the chance of El Niño?). This is also why making forecasts for the strength of El Niño or La Niña is always fraught with uncertainty: the spread of possible outcomes is clearly larger than the width of any one strength category (see definitions).

In part because we don’t have a perfect model, we often examine the ensemble means from many different types of models (see IRI/CPC plume and North American Multi-Model Ensemble), hoping that the average of those will cancel out individual model errors. This strategy is called using multi-model ensembles (MME).

So, this is why on June 5th 2014, we slightly favored a moderate strength El Niño. The observed reality will ultimately be some factor we cannot know in advance due to the noise.
Quoting opal92nwf:
I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.


Other than midlatitude storms, fronts, thunderstorms , derechos, heatwaves cool spells, arctic meltout, droughts, floods

naahh, nothing

Quoting 849. hydrus:


Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.
Attention climate deniers: This scientist will give you $10,000 for actual proof that global warming is a hoax
Physicist Christopher Keating tells Salon about his plan to get climate deniers to "put up or shut up"

Link
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 261248
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT THU 26 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Quoting 866. TimSoCal:



Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.
Not sure yet, but I hope this trough comes south to cool things down. Fall temps in summer for us if the GFS is correct.
Its like the Tropical Pre-Season Game here the last week.

all negative...on the recon ghostrider


Quoting 866. TimSoCal:



Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.


Right turn baby!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 863. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro,
What do you think this will be if it lands in East central Florida? Will it be just a 'low' that will saturate us or something else?

Thanks.


I gave an entire explanation 4 days ago. Pay attention. :):)

I think there is a very good chance of it getting very close to Tropical Storm strength. It appears it will be a slow mover.



Notice the big high which has been almost stationary on the Florida west coast.

Looks like a surface low over upstate South Carolina. This feature should move offshore later today or early tomorrow morning as it rounds the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still expecting this thing to linger off the Southeast...maybe scrape a coastline or two (Florida, North Carolina). Wind shear is light and sea surface temperatures are warm, but the same trough that should kick it northeastward in a few days might also be responsible for its death (absorption). Still sticking with 40% chance of Arthur.

Quoting 853. rayduray2013:


Thanks. This is the first time I've seen that page. I note the ultimate importance of coin tosses. :)


The bemoaning of soccer selection rules got me thinking about more popular sports in America. Generally, the less games we play, the more arcane our selection of one over the other becomes (especially when scoring is low). I am fine with the soccer rules except for coin tosses and using PK to determine a tournament win (I'd rather have something like hockey - just play OT until someone scores).
Quoting 875. Grothar:


I gave an entire explanation 4 days ago. Pay attention. :):)

I think there is a very good chance of it getting very close to Tropical Storm strength. It appears it will be a slow mover.



Notice the big high which has been almost stationary on the Florida west coast.



Yes sir Mr.Grothar (said submissively with tail between legs)
8-)
Quoting SouthTampa:

The bemoaning of soccer selection rules got me thinking about more popular sports in America. Generally, the less games we play, the more arcane our selection of one over the other becomes (especially when scoring is low). I am fine with the soccer rules except for coin tosses and using PK to determine a tournament win (I'd rather have something like hockey - just play OT until someone scores).


This is also one of the few advantages of baseball over other sports. BTW I don't like the hockey shootout concept and think they should just play until a score.
Hi Taz, your guess to how many storms this year is only as good as anybody else's. 5 to 7 seems a little low as the so called experts are predicting 9 to 11, but as I said earlier your guess is as good as theirs.
Quoting 832. StormTrackerScott:

SOI is tanking right now with a daily value of -24.3. It appears the atmosphere is in an
El-Nino state now and this thing could be declared in July.

Another westerly wind burst appears to moving across the Dateline.




Well it's about time lol. I'm getting tired of this mugwump atmosphere.
Sad when such important science projects has to beg for money..I sent a few bucks so the co2 measurements could continue in Hawaii,started by Dr Keeing...plenty of money for the world Cup and all that keeps the Corporate media running riotously