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The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel

By: Bob Henson 6:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2016

As of Tuesday, the deepest cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere wasn’t anywhere near the tropics--it was spinning in the central Arctic Ocean. A surface low located near 83°N, about 500 miles from the North Pole and about 1000 miles north of Barrow, Alaska, deepened to a central pressure of 968 millibars (mb) at 2 am EDT Tuesday morning, August 16. This is on par with the central pressure you might find in a moderately-sized Category 2 hurricane. Such lows are a common feature of Arctic climate, but they rarely gain such intensity in the middle of summer. The only deeper Arctic cyclone on record in August is the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012. According to a 2012 study by Ian Simmonds and Irina Rudeva (University of Melbourne), this low bottomed out at 966 mb on August 6, yielding the lowest pressure analyzed across more than 1600 August cyclones in the Arctic since 1979. The cyclone's minimum pressure was even lower--963 mb--in the real-time analyses produced by Environment Canada while the storm was raging.


Figure 1. The Arctic cyclone was analyzed with a central pressure of 968 mb at 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Tuesday, August 16, 2016. The central pressure had risen to 971 mb by 12Z (8:00 am EDT). Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 2. Surface analyses over the Arctic Ocean show the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 at its deepest (left, at 06Z August 6, 2012) juxtaposed with the current cyclone (right, as of 00Z Tuesday, August 16, 2016). The initial Image credit: Environment Canada.

Wind, waves, and ice
The GAC of 2012 churned across the Arctic for ten days while its central pressure was below 1000 mb. The cyclone had major effects on the distribution of regional ice and appears to have played at least some role in that summer’s record depletion of Arctic sea ice. Normally, low pressure near the North Pole causes ice to spread out (as surface waters and sea ice move to the right of the surface wind). Yet the intensity and duration of the 2012 cyclone’s winds and waves appears to have more than compensated for that effect, leading to an overall loss of ice extent. The extent plummeted in August 2012 en route to a record-low extent in September.

A study in 2013 led by Jinlun Zhang (University of Washington) found that the GAC quadrupled the melting of sea ice from below by pushing warm surface water against the bottom of wind- and wave-tossed ice floes. However, because much of the Arctic ice was already thin and compromised, much of the extent loss that would occur in August and September was already baked into the system when the cyclone came along. Zhang and colleagues estimated from a model simulation that the record September minimum was only about 4% lower as a result of the GAC of 2012.

The kind of ice-breaker we don’t need
It’s too soon to know exactly how this year’s storm--let’s call it the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 for now--will affect the Arctic. However, according to polar researcher James Screen (University of Exeter), “This certainly has the potential to be an interesting event and possibly have a big influence on whether or not we see a new record sea ice minimum next month.” As many reports have noted in the last few years, the Arctic’s summer ice pack is in the midst of a dramatic long-term decrease due to global and regional warming. However, there remains a good bit of year-to-year variation in the ice extent. Each summer’s ice pack has a different character in terms of the area it covers, its thickness, the extent and location of surface melt ponds, and so on. This means the impacts of a strong August cyclone in the high Arctic could be quite different from one year to the next. The current cyclone is located near a zone that separates relatively thick, dense ice to its east (north of the Canadian Archipelago) from thinner, more dispersed ice extending from the eastern coast of Siberia all the way up to near the North Pole (see Figure 4 below).


Figure 3. Near-surface circulation around the low in the central Arctic as of early Tuesday, August 16, 2016. Sustained winds of at least 30 mph appear to be affecting a large area. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.


Figure 4. Sea ice concentration across the Arctic as of August 15, 2016. The approximate location of the strong Arctic cyclone as of Tuesday, August 16, is shown by the large L. Image credit: University of Bremen.


Figure 5. Largely due to incredible winter warmth, temperatures averaged north of the Arctic Circle for the period January through July were far higher this year than in any year since records began in 1948. Image credit: Zach Labe, UC-Irvine, @ZLabe.


Potential impacts
As of early August, the Arctic’s sea ice extent was among the four lowest on record since satellite monitoring began in 1979. Temperatures across the Arctic for the year thus far have been far above record levels (see Figure 5), so there is concern that the ice pack may be weaker than satellite measurements and models imply. We can expect some dramatic changes over the next few days, as winds and waves break up ice and churn up relatively warm water from below. Much will depend on the exact track of this Arctic cyclone and how long it persists as an intense low.

Remarkably, the most recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS keep the current low and/or subsequent lows spinning across the Arctic Ocean for at least the next week--perhaps at pressures below 990 mb for much or most of the time. The models even flag the possibility of another unusually intense cyclone at some point next week. One caution from polar scientist Steven Cavallo (University of Oklahoma): “There is not really much skill in the forecast models accurately predicting the strength of an Arctic cyclone more than 3 days ahead of time.”  However, if the models' overall message of unusually persistent and strong low pressure in the central Arctic verifies, there could be very significant impacts to the sea ice pack extending through the rest of the melt season.

Will climate change lead to more Great Arctic Cyclones?
Given the amount of change occurring to the state of summer sea ice in the Arctic, it’s natural to wonder if there might be a change in the upward-pointing influence on atmospheric circulation. “An interesting question is whether the long-term loss of ice (and increased heat and moisture fluxes) is making Arctic cyclones more intense,” Screen noted. “The jury is still out on that one, but if that was the case, we could expect GAC-type events to occur more frequently.” A 2009 modeling study led by Yvan Orsolini (Norwegian Institute for Air Research) estimated that the number and strength of summertime Arctic cyclones would increase slightly through the 21st century. Over the long term, “we do expect a lowering of the mean sea level pressure over the Arctic with sea ice loss," says climate modeler Clara Deser (National Center for Atmospheric Research]. "To to the extent that this signal reflects cyclone behavior, I would concur that under climate change, it might be the case that cyclones would intensify. However, attribution of the extent to which the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 is a result of the loss of sea ice is more challenging, since internal variability may also contribute."

For deep coverage of the deep Arctic cyclone, check out the dedicated post at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, as well as recent entries in “The 2016 melting season” at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.

Elsewhere on the blog
Jeff Masters filed an update earlier Tuesday on the devastating floods in southeast Louisiana, which have now inundated some 40,000 homes, and on the current state of Invest 98L, which is likely to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. We’ll be back with our next post by Wednesday.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Sea ice across the Arctic experienced a major decline in extent and concentration during the first few days of August 2012, as the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 churned across the area. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. Kowaliga:


Go here and select the run you want.


thank you
Quoting 500. Kowaliga:


Go here and select the run you want.


Thanks
Looks like there is still a chance ...........
Quoting 504. CaribBoy:

Looks like there is still a chance ...........
GFS keeping 3rd wave from going out to sea, with High to the north.
This run of the GFS has Fiona meandering slowly North then future gaston moving west or WNW toward the Caribbean
DOOM- sponsored by your friendly neighborhood CMC.

CaribBoy wake up!
Quoting 508. Gearsts:

CaribBoy wake up!

Ring the bells lol.
Quoting 507. SavannahStorm:

DOOM- sponsored by your friendly neighborhood CMC.




The DOOM of the day goes tooooo the CMC
Quoting 510. Climate175:

Ring the bells lol.


RING RING


West please please please!
Quoting 508. Gearsts:

CaribBoy wake up!



dont get CaribBoy started lol


The GFS has trended south. It's a start :)
Uh oh, bridging ridges. Not good. *300 hrs. plenty of time to watch the typical windshield wiper effect. Now we look for trends. Hydrus, thanks for posting those satellite imageries those waves are looking healthy and on the launch pad ready to go.

Quoting 516. thetwilightzone:



dont get CaribBoy started lol


I want that storm! I will get it :)
ok...
GFS on Gaston is much further S and W of previous run

18Z Gaston



00Z Gaston



u never know might even be further S and W on next run too lol
522. JRRP7
Shifted many miles westward from 18z.
Quoting 517. CaribBoy:



The GFS has trended south. It's a start :)


lol you never know it may trend so far S and W that it may stay south of you lol

that would be complete torture for you if it does happen
526. JRRP7


Famous last words lol
I know this is wayyyy far out in time, but...



WOW
384 model hype. Evacuate Bermuda.

Quoting 521. wunderkidcayman:

GFS on Gaston is much further S and W of previous run

18Z Gaston



00Z Gaston



u never know might even be further S and W on next run too lol


Yes each run the GFS strengthens the ridge more and more something to watch also the CMC is west with fiona and doesn't develop Gaston
Gaston grows a eye on the GFS
Quoting 525. wunderkidcayman:



lol you never know it may trend so far S and W that it may stay south of you lol

that would be complete torture for you if it does happen


haha you would come to that conclusion, but hey you never know.
Quoting 532. chrisdscane:



haha you would come to that conclusion, but hey you never know.


hey its whats there
Anyone else notice that the 0z run finished loading earlier than usual at 12:48/12:49am edt?


Notice how fast the ridge closes back off after 06L exists. If future Gaston is 50-100 miles behind the current GFS track it would further threaten the U.S
Quoting 534. Tornado6042008X:

Anyone else notice that the 0z run finished earlier than usual at 12:49am edt?
Yea, and the Ensembles are coming out earlier.
Now we wait for the EURO.
Quoting 534. Tornado6042008X:

Anyone else notice that the 0z run finished loading earlier than usual at 12:49am edt?


Yes
Quoting 537. chrisdscane:

Now we wait for the EURO.


Now we wait for King EURO lol
00z CMC TD 6. That would be the tip of NC/VA on the top left of this image by 38 N.

GFS ensembles picking up on the 2nd wave now, along with the 3rd.
you no what would wind shear be like would there be model runs for that? if we are going too be seeing strong storms that model runs are hiting at then we need low wind shear
It appears the ensembles are split, having the 3rd wave go out to sea if it strengthens quickly, and having it take a more westerly route if it stays a bit more weak, and gradually develops.
Quoting 543. thetwilightzone:

you no what would wind shear be like would there be model runs for that? if we are going too be seeing strong storms that model runs are hiting at then we need low wind shear


it has the third wave accompanied by a upper level Anticyclone to fan it out
Anyone here old enough remember this period in 1995?



A satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean on August 24 including (from left to right) Tropical Storm Jerry over FL., Hurricane Iris, Hurricane Humberto and two tropical waves that would ultimately become Karen and Hurricane Luis.
WEST WEST WEST Models trending west something to watch
The high isn't weakening much on this run !!!
New HWRF coming out shows 06 ingesting a lot of dry air, staying weak, and pushing west.

Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Anyone here old enough remember this period in 1995?



A satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean on August 24 including (from left to right) Tropical Storm Jerry over FL., Hurricane Iris, Hurricane Humberto and two tropical waves that would ultimately become Karen and Hurricane Luis.


Long time ago i was young
Quoting 525. wunderkidcayman:



lol you never know it may trend so far S and W that it may stay south of you lol

that would be complete torture for you if it does happen


Yes, but we will see...

This is enough to upgrade huh?
Quoting 551. SavannahStorm:

New HWRF coming out shows 06 ingesting a lot of dry air, staying weak, and pushing west.


18z HWRF had another storm developing behind TD 6, not sure if from 2nd or 3rd wave.
Quoting 552. James1981cane:



Long time ago i was young
Man, was the MJO pulse in during that time.
Quoting 556. HurricaneAndre:

Man, was the MJO pulse in during that time.


I don't remember but it was a very fun tracking week
Quoting 552. James1981cane:



Long time ago i was young
...Were you born in 1981.?
Quoting 553. CaribBoy:



Yes, but we will see...


WE WILL SEE
Quoting 558. hydrus:

...Were you born in 1981.?


No i am 27
Go west young man!
Quoting 561. Tampa969mlb:

Go west young man!


lol you wish
Bermuda DOOM!!!
Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Anyone here old enough remember this period in 1995?



A satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean on August 24 including (from left to right) Tropical Storm Jerry over FL., Hurricane Iris, Hurricane Humberto and two tropical waves that would ultimately become Karen and Hurricane Luis.
I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..





Looking at this, TD6 is supposed to go NW? Would one of you explain why. I don't get it.

Link
New aerial, satellite images document Louisiana flood devastation

ASA's Earth Observatory online blog focused on the Louisiana Flood of 2016 on Tuesday (Aug. 16), featuring an animated graphic showing how rain added up across the state. The graphic, shown here, is based on satellite imagery of three-hour rainfall totals over the three day-period ending Sunday.


Animation of satellite-based rainfall measurements during the Louisiana Flood of 2016. Note that 1,000 millimeters equals 39.4 inches.
Quoting 560. James1981cane:



No i am 27
1989...We had snow in S.W.Florida that year...One of the coolest things I ever saw. Was at work that night. Our boss let us all break to go look out the back door to see it. It showed well under the streetlights..:)
Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..




For some reason I thought we were farther apart in age.... I remember that storm as well - I was in the Police Academy at the time.
Quoting 565. swflurker:

Looking at this, TD6 is supposed to go NW? Would one of you explain why. I don't get it.

Link


WNW movement seems more likely now IMO
We are almost as old as Grothar. Well, I said almost! :-)

Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..






Quoting 568. Dakster:



For some reason I thought we were farther apart in age.... I remember that storm as well - I was in the Police Academy at the time.
Cool..Let me guess...You grew tired of the oppressive heat and the hurricanes, so you moved to Alaska...Maybe some of the heat followed you there..:)


Euro more south on Fiona and more stronger of the 00Z GFS and more south of its last run
Future Fiona could head for the Bahamas
574. 7544
Quoting 573. James1981cane:

Future Fiona could head for the Bahamas


DING DING U WIN !
The Euro this run instead of weakening it strengthens it while it turns back due west this run could be hinting at a bahamas hit !!
Where is the national media reporting on the ground in South LA? This would help tremendously in raising money, supplies being donated, more volunteers, and blood being donated.
577. SLU
17/0545 UTC 12.5N 35.0W T2.0/2.0 06L
Quoting 577. SLU:

17/0545 UTC 12.5N 35.0W T2.0/2.0 06L


WOW
Quoting 576. scott39:

Where is the national media not reporting on the ground in South LA? This would help tremendously in raising money, supplies being donated, more volunteers, and blood being donated.


Because they are covering the 2016 Election


Slightly south and west
Quoting 579. James1981cane:



Because they are covering the 2016 Election
No excuse, and you can eliminate the word not. It was a typo.
Quoting 577. SLU:

17/0545 UTC 12.5N 35.0W T2.0/2.0 06L


So that means it has moved more west
Quoting 581. scott39:

No excuse, and you can eliminate the word not. It was a typo.


The media is corrupt now days they don't care about the weather
Quoting 577. SLU:

17/0545 UTC 12.5N 35.0W T2.0/2.0 06L
Quoting 582. James1981cane:



So that means it has moved more west


yes it has W-WNW I guess

now 12.5N 35.0W
before 12.0N 33.7W
Quoting 583. James1981cane:



The media is corrupt now days they don't care about the weather
This is about human suffering and a opportunity for the media to help. The weather event is over.
Quoting 584. wunderkidcayman:



yes it has W-WNW I guess

now 12.5N 35.0W
before 12.0N 33.7W


Ok yeah its more west of northwest so WNW thanks
Quoting 585. scott39:

This is about human suffering and a opportunity for the media to help. The weather event is over.


yeah i know
Quoting 491. wunderkidcayman:



can you post me the link to that run
thanks
the big bend has not been hit with a major in 100yrs. But time is running out. I have a feeling that this may be the year to really pay attention to what is going on in the tropics. Just a gut feeling! !
Quoting 584. wunderkidcayman:



yes it has W-WNW I guess

now 12.5N 35.0W
before 12.0N 33.7W


that's about 291 degrees which is just shy of WNW by a couple of degrees
Quoting 589. wunderkidcayman:



that's about 291 degrees which is just shy of WNW by a couple of degrees

Wow that is unexpected
Quoting 588. tom1516:

the big bend has not been hit with a major in 100yrs. But time is running out. I have a feeling that this may be the year to really pay attention to what is going on in the tropics. Just a gut feeling! !
sorry, I ment the county I live in
Quoting 591. tom1516:

sorry, I ment the county I live in
WAKULLA!!
looking on satellite
I'd put TD6 at about 12.5N 35.0W

I cant see it being higher than 12.5N at the moment IMO
Quoting 566. Patrap:

New aerial, satellite images document Louisiana flood devastation

ASA's Earth Observatory online blog focused on the Louisiana Flood of 2016 on Tuesday (Aug. 16), featuring an animated graphic showing how rain added up across the state. The graphic, shown here, is based on satellite imagery of three-hour rainfall totals over the three day-period ending Sunday.


Animation of satellite-based rainfall measurements during the Louisiana Flood of 2016. Note that 1,000 millimeters equals 39.4 inches.


Pat, this is a great link - the NOLA piece is loaded with info.

On another note, your 'how to' post on post-flood cleanup is making the rounds here in SE EBRP. I printed that puppy out, and it's a bit of an in-demand commodity.

No flood at my house, thank God. Heavily leaking roof, though. Minor inconveniences like no power for a while and communication issues due to AT&T (still on-going), but compared to what others have lost I'm pretty darn lucky.

Best get going, as AT&T's recent and dreaded 'data blocks' can hit at any time, and they last 12+ hours.

Best of luck to all who are in recovery and cleanup mode.

Quoting 593. wunderkidcayman:

looking on satellite
I'd put TD6 at about 12.5N 35.0W

I cant see it being higher than 12.5N at the moment IMO


Yeah true
Quoting 593. wunderkidcayman:

looking on satellite
I'd put TD6 at about 12.5N 35.0W

I cant see it being higher than 12.5N at the moment IMO


could mean models shift even more west
Quoting 590. James1981cane:


Wow that is unexpected


not really
I didn't buy the movements that models were showing and I still don't
Quoting 597. wunderkidcayman:



not really
I didn't buy the movements that models were showing and I still don't



Yeah earlier i thought the models were right but now i am starting to think this could suprise because the movement looks to stay WNW for the next few days based on steering so i might just have to agree
I expect the NHC to shift the cone dramatically west IMO
Quoting 599. James1981cane:

I expect the NHC to shift the cone dramatically west IMO


I think yes South and West shifts but I don't think it will be too dramatic of a shift eventually yes a big shift but they will change over time by small increments rather than one big shift over one advisory
Quoting 600. wunderkidcayman:



I think yes South and West shifts but I don't think it will be too dramatic of a shift eventually yes a big shift but they will change over time by small increments rather than one big shift over one advisory


Yeah good point but i still expect a shift south and west to continue
30 inches, maybe more, just west of Lake Pontchartrain..



Quoting 601. James1981cane:



Yeah good point but i still expect a shift south and west to continue


Yes indeed

Seems like the models are trending Southwards and westwards too and not only for TD6 but for the system behind too
won't be long before Chanthu makes landfall over Hokkaido Prefecture.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T201607)
15:00 PM JST August 17 2016
================================
About 110 KM East Northeast of Hachinohe (Aomori Prefecture)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (980 hPa) located at 40.8N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 32 knots.

Storm Warning
============
60 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
20 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 54.6N 147.0E- Extratropical Low In Sea of ​​Okhotsk
On the previous blog, nfloridandr was asking about bleach availability in Baton Rouge. I bought some at the 'new' neighborhood Walmart on Coursey this afternoon. They weren't fully stocked with it, but there was a pretty good amount available. Hope that helps.
47 years ago today Hurricane Camille moved ashore flattening nearly everything within its path. Winds of 175 mph, with gusts as high as 200 mph. Reanalysis shows that the storm surge may have been as high as 28 feet....Hope this works..



Quoting 602. hydrus:

30 inches, maybe more, just west of Lake Pontchartrain..






Howdy, Hydrus. Hope all is well with you and yours. Excellent graphic, per your usual :)

Looks like St. James Parish wins a dubious distinction with this one. Haven't heard much about them the last few days...but then again with no power and limited communication, the only news I've seen has been in snippets.
Quoting 605. LAbonbon:

On the previous blog, nfloridandr was asking about bleach availability in Baton Rouge. I bought some at the 'new' neighborhood Walmart on Coursey this afternoon. They weren't fully stocked with it, but there was a pretty good amount available. Hope that helps.
Greetings Bon..Were you flooded.?
Quoting 608. hydrus:

Greetings Bon..Were you flooded.?


Fortunately I did not flood. Unfortunately my oft-patched roof was overwhelmed with the rain, and it re-sprouted (and newly sprouted) multiple leaks. Upon scoping out the attic, lots of mold.
Quoting 568. Dakster:



For some reason I thought we were farther apart in age.... I remember that storm as well - I was in the Police Academy at the time.
Where.?
New advisory out on TD6 and cone shifts a bit South and West
Blue Cut fire scorches 9,000 acres and forces evacuation of 80,000 in California
Fanned by strong winds and high temperatures, the wildfire outside LA has prompted chaotic scenes as families scrambled to flee
Guardian, Rory Carroll in Los Angeles, Wednesday 17 August 2016 07.31 BST
A wildfire fanned by strong winds and 100F (37C) temperatures has ripped through rural communities outside Los Angeles, unleashing fire tornados and triggering evacuation orders for more than 80,000 people.
The so-called Blue Cut fire flared 60 miles east of LA on Tuesday and swiftly scorched 9,000 acres, sending walls of flame down the Cajon Pass and surrounding areas and prompting chaotic scenes as families scrambled to flee.
Television footage captured a fire tornado, more accurately known as a fire whirl, a phenomenon in which flames and gusts combine to form whirling eddies. ...


Aftermath of northern California wildfire – in pictures
A man has been arrested and charged with arson for starting a wildfire in Lake County, northern California that has destroyed 175 buildings and forced thousands to flee to safety
Interesting track ...



Chanthu typhoon heading straight for Russia’s Sakhalin
This is the second typhoon to hit the Sakhalin region in August
YUZHNO-SAKHALINSK, August 17. /TASS/.
A storm warning has been issued for the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands in the Russian Far East over the Chanthu typhoon approaching from Japan.
The regional government has already held a meeting of an emergency commission and all forces are on alert. ...
The typhoon is expected to reach the territory of the Sakhalin region in the small hours of Thursday. Heavy rain is expected in the Kurils by Wednesday evening and the wind can grow to hurricane at night in the South Kuril area. ...
This is the second typhoon to hit the Sakhalin region in August. A week ago, the Omais typhoon reached the Kuril Islands, bringing heavy rainfall. Some 92mm of precipitation was registered in Kurilsk, Iturup. ...




World's hottest month shows challenges global warming will bring
July was hotter than any month globally since records began – but some areas, such as the Middle East, suffer more than others
Guardian, Tuesday 16 August 2016 20.31 BST

Have a nice day everyone (as most of Germany with still very amiable weather should have :-)
Anyone heard from Kori?
Quoting 600. wunderkidcayman:



I think yes South and West shifts but I don't think it will be too dramatic of a shift eventually yes a big shift but they will change over time by small increments rather than one big shift over one advisory


Well now that's a surprise to hear that from you.
Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Anyone here old enough remember this period in 1995?



A satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean on August 24 including (from left to right) Tropical Storm Jerry over FL., Hurricane Iris, Hurricane Humberto and two tropical waves that would ultimately become Karen and Hurricane Luis.


Nope but I remember the one in 2008, I think Ike was one of four at a time.

I was 4 during the other :/
good/morning
arsonist? wonder how many fires this defendant started? big difference between 1995 and this yrs. forecast. 95 most of the ACE was way offshore this yr it is suppose to be in tight.
621. beell
Some stunning hi-res sat images of the Louisiana flood available in one of the embedded links in Pat's post @ 566.

geodesy.noaa.gov/storm_archive/storms/aug2016 lafloods index
622. MahFL
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

384 model hype. Evacuate Bermuda.




Bermuda is in TS winds, plus they don't evacuate. Bermuda has some of the best constructed buildings in the western hemisphere they can easily cope with even Cat3's.

Really good cloud pattern and banding, vorticity is strong may see an upgrade soon to Fiona





For the time being, Six's intensification will be slow due to increasing amounts of wind shear and dry air ahead. The faster it moves through these obstacles, the faster it will be able to begin to intensify.
Quoting 622. MahFL:



Bermuda is in TS winds, plus they don't evacuate. Bermuda has some of the best constructed buildings in the western hemisphere they can easily cope with even Cat3's.

I know this is off topic, but one time the south part of the island i live in (i live in the south part) got C2 winds and i didn't even see a single thing, except for a 15 m tree that cut itself.
TD6 is intensifying rapidly. It went from T2.0 to T2.8 in around 2.5 hours. It's probably a TS by now, and it already looks like a eye is on TD6. Jeez!
And to check if it's under RI, an ASCAT pass from an hour ago indicated only T2.0. 47 - 35 = 12. So it's intensifying at 12 mph/hour, which is 288 mph per day. 288 mph is 250 kt, which is WELL above the 30 kt minimum.
Due to a desturbenc in the force, tampa shields are down
The more west movement by a lot of the models is interesting, I myself couldn't possibly see such a sharp turn to north going back a couple days, two things possibly going on here, either it gets really weak almost into open wave in the coming days because of dry air like Euro depicts and is just not strong and deep enough to move north, or the weakness in the ridge isn't a factor and the high tries to build back in. I'm paying attention to the Euros track of this, the ensemble members believe in a west movement too. I don't trust CMC on intensity but that's really something having it come that close to U.S. in the latest run. Need to keep paying attention to trends.
Here comes the sun..

Good morning. IDK but it looks to me like TD 6 is moving west not nw. Link
Quoting 629. JrWeathermanFL:

Here comes the sun..




TD 6 encountering a lot of dust, you can see it as the sun strikes, and in this wind/dust map from earth.nullschool.net

632. beell
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016

The depression's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. It consists of a central mass of deep convection and a newly formed band over the northern half of the circulation. The low-level center appears to still be located near the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, likely due to some northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and support maintaining the initial intensity estimate of 30 kt.

The northeasterly shear is forecast to decrease while the cyclone moves over marginally warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. These two factors should favor some intensification during this time frame. However, the global models, and the ECMWF in particular, show the cyclone moving into a much drier environment after 48 hours and encountering strong southwesterly shear in association with a mid- to upper-level trough. Thus weakening is forecast to begin by day 3 despite the cyclone's trek over warmer waters, and there is the possibility that the system could degenerate into a remnant low by day 4 or 5 as depicted in the ECMWF. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one and the multi- model consensus in the short term but lower later in the forecast period and a little below most of the guidance.

The depression has been responding to a weakness in the subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w by moving on a northwesterly track, and the initial motion estimate is 305/13. The track guidance remains split into two distinct camps, with GFS-based deterministic models and GFS ensemble members showing a deeper system moving more poleward. The ECMWF and its ensemble solutions are much farther to the south as a result of the model's forecast of a weaker, shallower system moving on a more westerly course. Based on the assumption of a weaker system, the NHC track forecast is adjusted toward the ECMWF solution, and is well south of the previous one and a little to the left of the multi-model consensus.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
A system like TD 6 is exactly what we should be expecting in a situation like this. It's a compromise of the ramp up in activity climatology tells us to expect, and the struggles caused by sinking air relating to what is still an unfavorable MJO. My original forecast yesterday of a 50-60mph peak still seems reasonable and agrees with NHC. The models continue to depict a fairly healthy wave train, with more development signals than we've seen in recent years, but we're still battling some negatives for storms to form.

Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..








EEks! Memories ... Thanks for posting hydrus.
That's us in Vero Beach in that Eyewall loop at landfall.
VB Locals here have always said if you had to go thru a hurricane, that was the one (on the East Coast Side). Not as much rain as expected & winds for much of the storm were upper end TS strength & minimal storm surge. Wont ever be fooled by Mother Nature though .. always prepare for the worst, even with a TS.

Erin 95 had gotten Dry air sucked in & she had weakened just slightly before coming on shore. But look at that back side ... Warm Gulfstream water fed her enough to encourage strengthing while over land. She surely tightened back up & walloped the West Coast, I4 Corridor & Pandhandle brutally that night.

1995 had us in FLorida scurrying all season & glad when it was over.
'04 & '05 of course left us completely shell shocked.

FLCrackerGirl Fran
635. Tcwx2
Yea the Florida panhandle and south Alabama took two hits that hurricane season. Erin and then the worst, Opal.
Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..






I didn't believe the models initially why did you?
Quoting 450. Stormchaser2007:

None of the ATCF pages were updated before the advisory.

Odd.


Investing for Meteorologists

Excerpt:

In 2014, NHC has made some changes to how data from the ATCF get publicly posted. The most significant of these is the establishment of a blackout period, during which changes made to the ATCF storm ID and some other parameters will not flow to the FTP server. The blackout period begins 90 minutes prior to the nominal advisory release time (e.g., 9:30 a.m.) and ends at the nominal advisory release time (e.g., 11:00 a.m.).
Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..

Approach and landfall Florida East Coast..






Erin was the first hurricane I weathered at home on the Space Coast barrier island. Although it weakened rapidly after the first landfall being in the northern eyewall beachside was no joke. It was a dry storm as hurricanes go, not enough to tear off roofs but the power grid got walloped and of course everyone's fences were flattened and trees were stripped of their leaves with many uprooted or torn up. It was a disaster for the local nesting turtles as it came right when they were hatching. I walked the beach the day after and most of the baby turtles were dead in the exposed nests, drowned as they struggled to get to the surface. No power for several days, having to chop up all the downed tree limbs and rebuilding my fence taught me up close and personal that even a middling Cat 1 was no fun.
Quoting 593. wunderkidcayman:

looking on satellite
I'd put TD6 at about 12.5N 35.0W

I cant see it being higher than 12.5N at the moment IMO


You are .7 degrees too far south.
Good morning, take a look at the flow of the clouds coming in off the east coast of Florida and central Atlantic. Looks like a east to west flow with nothing streaming north. Same in the central and points south. Is this a flow at the lower levels?
TXNT23 KNES 171206
TCSNTL

A. 06L (NONAME)

B. 17/1145Z

C. 13.5N

D. 35.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .5 FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET=1.5 AND
PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/0603Z 12.7N 35.1W SSMI


...VELASCO


Link
Quoting 615. HaoleboySurfEC:

Anyone heard from Kori?


He's been around. He went to a concert in TX recently and I think he's on hiatus from blogging, currently.
Quoting 557. James1981cane:



I don't remember but it was a very fun tracking week


That would have made you age 6. You remember tracking all of those storms?
Quoting 625. NunoLava1998:


I know this is off topic, but one time the south part of the island i live in (i live in the south part) got C2 winds and i didn't even see a single thing, except for a 15 m tree that cut itself.
You live in Bermuda? Two weeks ago you wrote that you live in Madeira, Portugal (from where you and your crew sent a high-altitude drone into 97L).

You seem to accomplish much, my friend.
Good Morning everyone. Coffee with bagels and cream cheese, and eggs benedict or Belgian waffles or Pancakes with Canadian maple or spicy Italian sausage, and hash potatoes with a serving of fresh fruit, Florida strawberries, Georgia peaches, and cantaloupe is up on the menu.

TD 6 and the TW behind it are gobbling up some of that African dust. I must say TD 6 is handling it well and has created its own moisture field. Never underestimate a Cape-Verde breed.



Models are more divergent this morning.



Keep your "eye" on the next one.


Quoting 564. hydrus:

I lived in S.W. Florida in 1995. Turned 29 just before Hurricane Erin struck Florida twice. This hurricane rapidly intensified before striking the panhandle region..


Yes! This is the one I rode out with my friend and my father on his sailboat north of WPB on our way up to JAX. We were moored, but an interesting day nonetheless. I was 10. Good times!
Quoting 647. Grothar:

Keep your on the next one.





Hi Gro- Keep your 'what' on the next one?
Not a lot of deep convection....this thing's gonna dissipate if it doesn't Fire convection and ward off this dry air.
Could possibly be expanding its moisture field but still not a lot of nice deep convection yet.
Good Morning; Louisiana still reeling from the flooding and TD6 headed into the Central Atlantic (which is a good thing) and heading into a ton of SAL as noted by NHC which should limit any significant intensification.  Here is what we have looking towards TD6 and  Africa on the short-term horizon:






Quoting 567. hydrus:

1989...We had snow in S.W.Florida that year...One of the coolest things I ever saw. Was at work that night. Our boss let us all break to go look out the back door to see it. It showed well under the streetlights..:)


You're putting a lot of memories in my head this am! I remember this event too. Began just as we were turning onto our rd off Dearborn as we were returning from looking at xmas lights. Christmas Eve. I was only 4, but overwhelmed with excitement.

And yes GT, I was watching wtc nonstop that year. Fun times indeed.
Quoting 647. Grothar:

Keep your on the next one.





If it stays a low rider and makes it into the Caribbean it may face a hostile environment once it gets there.
Quoting 649. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro- Keep your 'what' on the next one?


Maybe he's telling Keeper that he's got the next one
Quoting 645. Neapolitan:

You live in Bermuda? Two weeks ago you wrote that you live in Madeira, Portugal (from where you and your crew sent a high-altitude drone into 97L).

You seem to accomplish much, my friend.


There are unfortunately multiple story tellers that blog regularly now. Sad!
This would not be good. A weak system, yes. But approaching the east coast in those warm waters? Ugh!

Remember African waves do not just disappear keep close watch on TD 6 as this could become a player later on.
Welcome Fiona
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SIX AL062016 08/17/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 54 52 53 51 52 50 52
Quoting 645. Neapolitan:

You live in Bermuda? Two weeks ago you wrote that you live in Madeira, Portugal (from where you and your crew sent a high-altitude drone into 97L).

You seem to accomplish much, my friend.

I DO live in Madeira. I didn't say anything that i live in Bermuda. I'm just comparing it to Bermuda, i just said that the houses here in Madeira were pretty well constructed.
My way of thinking they should disconnect the GFS after 240 hrs.Hardly ever correct after that time frame.
AL, 06, 2016081712, , BEST, 0, 136N, 358W, 35, 1006, TS,
Tropical Storm Fiona is here! 6-2-0
Good morning all. I see we have TD 6 .... let's see how the forecasts look by this evening .

This current forecast track does not make me happy, in that it implies no eye candy for us, but also a weaker storm entering into the 20s but more likely to resume a westward track after 5 days. Again, I am reminded of Andrew which was nearly decommissioned, but which got up under the ridge and kept going west. Of course there are some key differences to the synopics which make me feel a restrengthening storm might still head north rather than west, but the "tingle" factor is increasing.
Wow! Strong tropical waves setting up. This looks as though this tropical wave will be a tropical storm BEFORE it enters the water.

Quoting 634. FLCrackerGirl:


EEks! Memories ... Thanks for posting hydrus.
That's us in Vero Beach in that Eyewall loop at landfall.
VB Locals here have always said if you had to go thru a hurricane, that was the one (on the East Coast Side). Not as much rain as expected & winds for much of the storm were upper end TS strength & minimal storm surge. Wont ever be fooled by Mother Nature though .. always prepare for the worst, even with a TS.

Erin 95 had gotten Dry air sucked in & she had weakened just slightly before coming on shore. But look at that back side ... Warm Gulfstream water fed her enough to encourage strengthing while over land. She surely tightened back up & walloped the West Coast, I4 Corridor & Pandhandle brutally that night.

1995 had us in FLorida scurrying all season & glad when it was over.
'04 & '05 of course left us completely shell shocked.

FLCrackerGirl Fran


Erin was my first Hurricane after moving to Fort Walton Beach in 92. I was amazed at the power of 85 mph winds, of course they were higher in the gusts. Erin took out a lot of trees that were weak. I think this helped when Opal came through a couple months later.
Quoting 662. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Tropical Storm Fiona is here! 6-2-0



not so fast see what the NHC dos at 11am they may keep it has a TD at 11 am
Quoting 604. HadesGodWyvern:

won't be long before Chanthu makes landfall over Hokkaido Prefecture.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T201607)
15:00 PM JST August 17 2016
================================
About 110 KM East Northeast of Hachinohe (Aomori Prefecture)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (980 hPa) located at 40.8N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 32 knots.

Storm Warning
============
60 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
20 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 54.6N 147.0E- Extratropical Low In Sea of ​​Okhotsk
They expect it to go extratropical any minute now .... before or after landfall?
Quoting 666. thetwilightzone:




not so fast will what the NHC dos at 11am they may keep it has a TD at 11 am

Nope. 2 hours ago the ADT said TD6 was T2.8, which is almost 50 mph!
Quoting 605. LAbonbon:

On the previous blog, nfloridandr was asking about bleach availability in Baton Rouge. I bought some at the 'new' neighborhood Walmart on Coursey this afternoon. They weren't fully stocked with it, but there was a pretty good amount available. Hope that helps.
Glad to see you're okay.... were you badly impacted by the flood?
TD 6. Not really much to say, cept yay, we have it lol. Probably won't amount to much. I stated yesterday, it may pull a fast one as it's round the Azores high, but I wouldn't expect much in the mean time. a bit dry out there!



Notice the ULL to the n. Should put quite a limit on intensification if not dissipate it altogether.
Quoting 621. beell:

Some stunning hi-res sat images of the Louisiana flood available in one of the embedded links in Pat's post @ 566.

geodesy.noaa.gov/storm_archive/storms/aug2016 lafloods index
Everything I've seen has been heartwrenching. ... and / or astounding.
Quoting 666. thetwilightzone:




not so fast see what the NHC dos at 11am they may keep it has a TD at 11 am


Based on all the data and the latest info being listed as a TS NHC are likely to upgrade shortly
Quoting 622. MahFL:



Bermuda is in TS winds, plus they don't evacuate. Bermuda has some of the best constructed buildings in the western hemisphere they can easily cope with even Cat3's.
Hi, I'm new.  Anyways, my two cents...I lived in Bermuda in the mid 80's and we got hit directly by a cat 1-2 (it's been awhile).  Anyways there was definetly damage to buildings (mostly limestone roofs) and multiple trees were down across roads that took weeks to fully get.  Overall though most structures recieved minor damage and the only people killed where out at sea.  (...and I really did live there.)  This was quite awhile ago though.
Quoting 660. victoria780:

My way of thinking they should disconnect the GFS after 240 hrs.Hardly ever correct after that time frame.
I don't agree with disconnecting it after 240 hrs. because of research and verification purposes; however, I would agree to not make it available to the public as it's oftentimes irresponsibly misused here and all over social media. Unless, you are a Certified Meteorologist or certified in a similar field and if those runs turn out to be correct may affect your job operations down the road. Thinking of Shipping interest and Oil Rig workers.
ir not much convection with td 6 no way they will upgrade this
Quoting 673. aldente:

Hi, I'm new.  Anyways, my two cents...I lived in Bermuda in the mid 80's and we got hit directly by a cat 1-2 (it's been awhile).  Anyways there was definetly damage to buildings (mostly limestone roofs) and multiple trees were down across roads that took weeks to fully get.  Overall though most structures recieved minor damage and the only people killed where out at sea.  (...and I really did live there.)  This was quite awhile ago though.



Welcome to the blog. Cool name.
Quoting 633. MAweatherboy1:

A system like TD 6 is exactly what we should be expecting in a situation like this. It's a compromise of the ramp up in activity climatology tells us to expect, and the struggles caused by sinking air relating to what is still an unfavorable MJO. My original forecast yesterday of a 50-60mph peak still seems reasonable and agrees with NHC. The models continue to depict a fairly healthy wave train, with more development signals than we've seen in recent years, but we're still battling some negatives for storms to form.


I'm less concerned about the 5-day, and more concerned about what happens if Six survives the TUTT ....
Quoting 643. Grothar:


Still not convinced we're going to see #6 hit 20N much before 50W .... but we shall see.
Quoting 650. JrWeathermanFL:

Not a lot of deep convection....this thing's gonna dissipate if it doesn't Fire convection and ward off this dry air.
Could possibly be expanding its moisture field but still not a lot of nice deep convection yet.
Give it 18 - 24 ... this time tomorrow we should see a somewhat deeper cyclone.
Quoting 656. fmbill:

This would not be good. A weak system, yes. But approaching the east coast in those warm waters? Ugh!


If I just spastically blurt out "ANDREW!" every now and then I hope you will all forgive me.
I'm suffering from deja vu ....
Quoting 659. NunoLava1998:


I DO live in Madeira. I didn't say anything that i live in Bermuda. I'm just comparing it to Bermuda, i just said that the houses here in Madeira were pretty well constructed.
Wait .... is this Madiera, as in the islands?
Quoting 649. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro- Keep your 'what' on the next one?


I see an eye lol. Look, I haven't had my second cup of coffee.
Quoting 673. aldente:

Hi, I'm new.  Anyways, my two cents...I lived in Bermuda in the mid 80's and we got hit directly by a cat 1-2 (it's been awhile).  Anyways there was definetly damage to buildings (mostly limestone roofs) and multiple trees were down across roads that took weeks to fully get.  Overall though most structures recieved minor damage and the only people killed where out at sea.  (...and I really did live there.)  This was quite awhile ago though.

Hi, welcome to the blog. Oh yes, I've heard the structures are built pretty soundly over there and that the island it a bit elevated too, preventing any significant storm surge flooding. I remembered chatting with stormwatcherCI awhile ago and she told me that even during Ivan which passed through the Cayman Islands as a Cat. 5 that some of the structures remained standing or sustaned minor damages. Upon, looking at some of the damage pictures I saw some roofs torn off, with some houses sustaining more damages than others, but the hotel buildings and apartments looked unscathed.
Good morning. Silly question coming from a neophyte but is there a possibility these two new waves coming off Africa could merge?  There doesn't appear a large gap between them and what if they are traveling at difference speeds?
Quoting 647. Grothar:

Keep your on the next one.




Quoting 660. victoria780:

My way of thinking they should disconnect the GFS after 240 hrs.Hardly ever correct after that time frame.
GFS after 240 hrs is commonly known here as Fantasy-Land. We use it to consider trends and get some ideas about potential overall weather patterns. We do NOT take it seriously as to where a system may go or how strong it will get. Even between 120 and 240, one is advised to take with numerous grains of salt. We're still working on getting forecasts that far out right.
Quoting 662. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Tropical Storm Fiona is here! 6-2-0
Not according to NHC, per my most recent look.
ECMWF current solution



Quoting 680. Grothar:



I see an eye lol. Look, I haven't had my second cup of coffee.
Would you like a refill sir?
Quite a difference between the EURO and the GFS. The EURO appears to move 06L more west with a shallower system, while the GFS has a stronger system moving quicker to the NW.

Quoting 687. Grothar:

Quite a difference between the EURO and the GFS. The EURO appears to move 06L more west with a shallower system, while the GFS has a stronger system moving quicker to the NW.




Kind of like comparing the most recent runs of the HWRF vs the GFDL. Very different solutions.
Quoting 687. Grothar:

Quite a difference between the EURO and the GFS. The EURO appears to move 06L more west with a shallower system, while the GFS has a stronger system moving quicker to the NW.


Hmm...that's interesting. Well the FIM takes it on a NW path as a shallower system while 2 more TW are moving into the picture.

Quoting 683. Grothar:




Models trending south and west, may be weak heading in that direction but if that was to indeed be the case with a circulation still present with the very warm sst and increasing TCHP we really need to watch down the road. Given it is likely to miss the Hebert box..The question is shear and dry air if that will just choke it off completely. The next waves are something to watch too. Probably an invest later today
Quoting 687. Grothar:

Quite a difference between the EURO and the GFS. The EURO appears to move 06L more west with a shallower system, while the GFS has a stronger system moving quicker to the NW.


Go, GFS, go!
lol
Quoting 686. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Would you like a refill sir?


If you want Steinbeck, you will have to wait until at least 11 AM. :)
11 is big. maybe the african tw will eventually get the F name. 11am could be a game changer.
Quoting 691. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Models trending south and west, may be weak heading in that direction but if that was to indeed be the case with a circulation still present with the very warm sst and increasing TCHP we really need to watch down the road. Given it is likely to miss the Herbert box..The question is shear and dry air if that will just choke it off completely. The next waves are something to watch too. Probably an invest later today

You mean Hebert...not Herbert.
Quoting 675. islander101010:

ir not much convection with td 6 no way they will upgrade this


NEVERMIND ITS APPEARANCE...there are obviously other factors to consider. The NHC has this penchant, clearly, for upgrading system when they are not giving their best appearance on satellite imagery etc. Earl was a clear case in point. Fiona will be no different...Its an oddity for sure and invariably something quite peculiar with the NHC. We continue to keep a close eye on Pre-Fiona inspite of fairly consistent model guidance at this point. Hopefully all will be well for the islands.

God Bless!
The 2nd Wave is now already officially off the coast.
Quoting 682. PuppyToes:

Good morning. Silly question coming from a neophyte but is there a possibility these two new waves coming off Africa could merge?  There doesn't appear a large gap between them and what if they are traveling at difference speeds?




Unlikely at this time. They really aren't that close. The early models are moving the 2nd wave much further west. Now, if 06L moves further west, as only a few models are currently showing, there might be a little interaction between the two, but unlikely. Google Fujiwara effect.
Quoting 695. fmbill:


You mean Hebert...not Herbert.


yes lol
Quoting 609. LAbonbon:



Fortunately I did not flood. Unfortunately my oft-patched roof was overwhelmed with the rain, and it re-sprouted (and newly sprouted) multiple leaks. Upon scoping out the attic, lots of mold.


Regular Clorox won't kill mold it will only bleach it out. It will return. Use Clorox outdoors. Sold at lowes. It smells bad but works.
Gotta post one that Gro doesn't........


Quoting 691. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Models trending south and west, may be weak heading in that direction but if that was to indeed be the case with a circulation still present with the very warm sst and increasing TCHP we really need to watch down the road. Given it is likely to miss the Herbert box..The question is shear and dry air if that will just choke it off completely. The next waves are something to watch too. Probably an invest later today
Andrew did not enter Hebert's Box either, IIRC ...
Main point of interest for me with the next wave is how closely it will follow Six's track ....
Looks like TD 6 trying to get an eye.
Fish casting.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
Newly formed TD-6 has a wall of TUTTs to plow through over the central Atlantic. These TUTTs may weaken TD6 later on
Quoting 693. Grothar:



If you want Steinbeck, you will have to wait until at least 11 AM. :)
Sometimes I wonder if Steinbeck started writing without that second cup .... lol ...
Quoting 695. fmbill:


You mean Hebert...not Herbert.
R-intrusive dialect.


‏@hurrtrackerapp-

#TD6 upgrade to TS #Fiona is expected from the NHC at 11AM EDT. No threat to land.




Quoting 701. nrtiwlnvragn:

Gotta post one that Gro doesn't........






GRRRRR!!!!


Quoting 704. Patrap:

Fish casting.




Interesting curl the BAMD has got going on there ....


Link
From CIMSS with a link....


The heavy rainfall continued into 13 August, with storm total accumulations exceeding 31 inches in Louisiana . The entire sequence of 1-minute interval GOES-14 Infrared Window images spanning the period 1115 UTC on 11 August to 2159 UTC on 13 August, above, shows the development of multiple clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms, some of which exhibited cloud-top IR brightness temperatures of -80ºC or colder (violet color enhancement).
Quoting 678. BahaHurican:

If I just spastically blurt out "ANDREW!" every now and then I hope you will all forgive me.
I'm suffering from deja vu ....
lol now that is hype!
Inspite of purely Satellite convection area coverage imagery -TD 6 looks like it is in a current intensification mode Re: Core structure, vorticity and system organization -T.S. 'Fiona' Should be declared pretty soon...

God Bless!
Quoting 702. BahaHurican:

Andrew did not enter Hebert's Box either, IIRC ...
Main point of interest for me with the next wave is how closely it will follow Six's track ....


True, the next wave following six/Fiona will depend on how strong it comes off Africa a more organized deepening storm will take it poleward, if it stays weak a path similar to six/Fiona or more south towards Caribbean is possible as the ridge should build back in.
Respectfully disagree with that tweet. Certainly an outside threat to Bermuda. East coast threat is unlikely but not impossible. I never speak in "absolutes" with these systems. The Euro solution leaves the door open to potential issues next weekend and beyond. CV seeds that survive to favorable conditions make me sit up and take notice.

In the least may have indirect impacts on east coast. Rip currents, happy surfers, etc.

Quoting 708. WeatherkidJoe2323:


‏@hurrtrackerapp-

#TD6 upgrade to TS #Fiona is expected from the NHC at 11AM EDT. No threat to land.





Quoting 706. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
Newly formed TD-6 has a wall of TUTTs to plow through over the central Atlantic. These TUTTs may weaken TD6 later on
"Are expected to dissipate" would have made me happier than "may weaken" ....
LOL

This is going to be an interesting week's watch, as a "weakened" Fiona on the weekend would likely be located at the edge of warmer SSTs with much better TCHP, along with much improved conditions aloft. Will this result in a rebounding Fiona? If so, will the weakness in the mid-level ridge still be there so it can slide NWward around the Azores high????
Quoting 719. HaoleboySurfEC:

Respectfully disagree with that tweet. Certainly an outside threat to Bermuda. East coast threat is unlikely but not impossible. I never speak in "absolutes" with these systems. The Euro solution leaves the door open to potential issues next weekend and beyond. CV seeds that survive to favorable conditions make me sit up and take notice.

In the least may have indirect impacts on east coast. Rip currents, happy surfers, etc.




Oh yeah I agree with you, shared it basically to show Fiona is likely at 11. They should have last part out about no land threat, cant discount a land threat, Bermuda is certainly in play. The Euro solution is for sure something to pay attention too.
Quoting 700. downdabayou:



Regular Clorox won't kill mold it will only bleach it out. It will return. Use Clorox outdoors. Sold at lowes. It smells bad but works.

Me and my buddies are headed to Amite Friday and Saturday to help out how we can. Does anyone have a contact for disaster coordinators in the area so we can see where we can go and how to help? Sorry if this was mentioned down the page but I'm at work and can't hunt it.
Quoting 711. BahaHurican:

Interesting curl the BAMD has got going on there ....

Not relevant, both in intensity and trajectory, just to count for statistics purpose
Quoting 714. help4u:

lol now that is hype!
Nah .... just look at all the similarities, meng! .... It became a depression on the same day, due to almost be killed off by a TUTT, just like Andrew, and likely to end up just about where Andrew did when it started to restrengthen, in a pumped environment!!!!!! Plus Fiona has only 2 fewer letters than Andrew!!!!!!!!!

Aaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, I freely admit I'm rooting for the "dies off soon" alternative .... lol ...
Quoting 718. Patrap:



WNW?
728. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
I expect that to get an X ( number 2 and number 3 also still over Africa)
Quoting 718. Patrap:




It doesn't look to be heading NW, looks more WNW to me.
Quoting 724. juracanpr1:


Not relevant, both in intensity and trajectory, just to count for statistics purpose
I was trying to figure out what conditions would cause it to curve back that way. Maybe swift closure of the weakness, followed by westward drift? Not relevant, maybe, but interesting to a wx-curious person....

An excerpt from the Nashville today...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016


We walked in this evening to a great surprise. Models have flopped
back to the solution from 48 hours ago. The cold front expected to
move into the area on Sunday should clear the area on Sunday night
with much drier air and area-wide below normal temperatures. In
fact, by Monday morning, we may finally break that streak of being
above 70 degrees at Nashville airport -- so that taste of late
summer/early fall air may be just around the corner.


Before we get there, though, we have to look closely at Sunday ahead
of the front. Latest extended guidance is suggesting the upper level
trough (while well-displaced from Middle Tennessee) may very well
see a tilt to the negative Sunday afternoon. If it does and this
solution verifies, the surface low will respond by deepening and
increasing our shear values by 00Z Monday. This is relative
(forecast soundings only showing 30-40 kts at this time), but with a
sharp front and the above things happening, we could very well see
much more organized thunderstorms and an increased wind threat by
Sunday evening.
732. ariot
Quoting 700. downdabayou:



Regular Clorox won't kill mold it will only bleach it out. It will return. Use Clorox outdoors. Sold at lowes. It smells bad but works.


Be safe around bleach (always), but especially when other people are cleaning nearby. Lots of cleaning products have ammonia.

So if Joe is using Clorox and Sam is using something like Windex in the other room, you get problems.

Not to mention Clorox fumes are rough.

Don't ask me how I know. (TS Allison clean up, H-town. It was worse than CS by a mile.)

I'm off as soon as NHC updates 6. I'm not convinced they'll call it Fiona until 5 p.m., but we'll see shortly.

@Patrap, thanks for keeping us updated on the LA flooding situation ....
And No Change to Six.....

Once again, TD6/old98L is further west than models predicted. It's just starting to break from MT and sustain(if it can) on its own.
I see the surface maps, I see the MB images at all levels, I see the High sitting N of 30N. I see the models predicting NW movement to the weakness described yesterday. What I don't know: can TD6 (by continuing to move West of model initiation points) miss the weakness? I don't wish/hope anything bad. I hope it follows the models OTS.
IMO I see a path NE of the islands, parallel to the HIGH and towards Bahamas. Thankfully, shear is strong on that path.
Wow kept it a TD

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 17
Location: 14.0°N 36.4°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 36.4W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Quoting 735. MonsterTrough:

Once again, TD6/old98L is further west than models predicted. It's just starting to break from MT and sustain(if it can) on its own.
I see the surface maps, I see the MB images at all levels, I see the High sitting N of 30N. I see the models predicting NW movement to the weakness described yesterday. What I don't know: can TD6 (by continuing to move West of model initiation points) miss the weakness? I don't wish/hope anything bad. I hope it follows the models OTS.
IMO I see a path NE of the islands, parallel to the HIGH and towards Bahamas. Thankfully, shear is strong on that path.
That's what ECMWF is saying as well. I don't think it will strengthen fast enough to take the more NW track we were seeing.

Anyway I'm gone for now. Have a great day, everyone!
Quoting 736. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow kept it a TD

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 17
Location: 14.0°N 36.4°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Not surprised. It's getting it together, but needs a little more time to pull wind speeds up in response.
Quoting 709. Patrap:




Another boring fish :)
Quoting 739. BahaHurican:

Not surprised. It's getting it together, but needs a little more time to pull wind speeds up in response.


ADT values are at T3.2, i'm surprised they keeped it at that level. It's atleast 40 mph, no way it's 35 mph.
My heart is heavy for the many folks in LA who lost either their lives or their property due to this system. Here in the Austin TX area, this same system combined with a stationary front that has brought us over 12 inches of rain in some places since Saturday. For a system to be so powerful that it can drop 31+ inches and five days later drop a foot of rain in Central Texas as well as bring the temps down 30 degrees in mid-August, truly amazes me. This year has been completely odd in regards to expected situations and to say dynamic would be an understatement. I have learned to expect the unexpected.

Quoting 713. hydrus:



Link
From CIMSS with a link....


The heavy rainfall continued into 13 August, with storm total accumulations exceeding 31 inches in Louisiana . The entire sequence of 1-minute interval GOES-14 Infrared Window images spanning the period 1115 UTC on 11 August to 2159 UTC on 13 August, above, shows the development of multiple clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms, some of which exhibited cloud-top IR brightness temperatures of -80ºC or colder (violet color enhancement).
Quoting 726. BahaHurican:

Nah .... just look at all the similarities, meng! .... It became a depression on the same day, due to almost be killed off by a TUTT, just like Andrew, and likely to end up just about where Andrew did when it started to restrengthen, in a pumped environment!!!!!! Plus Fiona has only 2 fewer letters than Andrew!!!!!!!!!

Aaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, I freely admit I'm rooting for the "dies off soon" alternative .... lol ...



Ummm -- shhhhh!
Quoting 739. BahaHurican:

Not surprised. It's getting it together, but needs a little more time to pull wind speeds up in response.



I am a little surprised based on all the data but NHC said in their discussion main reason not to upgrade was the recent warming and decrease of deep convection over the center since last advisory. I'm starting to see the dry air affecting and trying to prevent further intensification.
TD6 has a bunch of dry air to swig. This may cause it to weaken and wobble to the west. May even miss its opportunity to go OTS.
Quoting 731. hydrus:
An excerpt from the Nashville today...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016


We walked in this evening to a great surprise. Models have flopped
back to the solution from 48 hours ago. The cold front expected to
move into the area on Sunday should clear the area on Sunday night
with much drier air and area-wide below normal temperatures. In
fact, by Monday morning, we may finally break that streak of being
above 70 degrees at Nashville airport -- so that taste of late
summer/early fall air may be just around the corner.


Before we get there, though, we have to look closely at Sunday ahead
of the front. Latest extended guidance is suggesting the upper level
trough (while well-displaced from Middle Tennessee) may very well
see a tilt to the negative Sunday afternoon. If it does and this
solution verifies, the surface low will respond by deepening and
increasing our shear values by 00Z Monday. This is relative
(forecast soundings only showing 30-40 kts at this time), but with a
sharp front and the above things happening, we could very well see
much more organized thunderstorms and an increased wind threat by
Sunday evening.


Unfortunately it will be another month before we see something like that reach NW Florida.
Yes I know those weren't your words. Rock on. It is ok to disagree anyway. None of us are omnipotent (except maybe Gro). lol

Quoting 722. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Oh yeah I agree with you, shared it basically to show Fiona is likely at 11. They should have last part out about no land threat, cant discount a land threat, Bermuda is certainly in play. The Euro solution is for sure something to pay attention too.
748. JRRP

Quoting 745. unknowncomic:

TD6 has a bunch of dry air to swig. This may cause it to weaken and wobble to the west. May even miss its opportunity to go OTS.


It may come close, but I doubt it makes US landfall. Almost all of the models show a strong TUTT in place draped across the Florida peninsula stretching from the GOM up to the Outer Banks.

Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it though.
Cone sliding more south and west each advisory

Quoting 749. SavannahStorm:



It may come close, but I doubt it makes US landfall. Almost all of the models show a strong TUTT in place draped across the Florida peninsula stretching from the GOM up to the Outer Banks.

Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it though.



Reminds me eerily of Hurricane Juan which went from Bermuda and made a straight line to Nova Scotia
Quoting 745. unknowncomic:

TD6 has a bunch of dry air to swig. This may cause it to weaken and wobble to the west. May even miss its opportunity to go OTS.


HWRF likes that thought lol
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 40m
There has been a slight south and westward shift in the track of TD-6 in the most recent ECMWF Ens run.
Quoting 703. birdsrock2016:

Looks like TD 6 trying to get an eye.



Yeah no....it looks much more like a system that is already struggling with dry air....there won't be an eye for quite a while, if ever.
Quoting 749. SavannahStorm:



It may come close, but I doubt it makes US landfall. Almost all of the models show a strong TUTT in place draped across the Florida peninsula stretching from the GOM up to the Outer Banks.

Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it though.



Reminds me eerily of Hurricane Juan which went from Bermuda and made a straight line to Nova Scotia
Basin Scale HWRF has the system currently coming off the coast of Africa as a low rider.






97B (Deep Depression)

At 17:30 PM IST, According to latest satellite imagery, associated broken low to medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over northern Bay of Bengal, Odisha, Gangetic, West Bengal, and Bangladesh. The cloud patter is shear type. Convective clouds are sheared to the southwest.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 987 hPa. The sea condition is very rough over northern Bay of Bengal. Diamond Harbor reported lowest mean sea level pressure of 987.8 hPa.

The sea surface temperature is 29-30C, ocean thermal energy is <40 kj/cm2 and depth of 26C isotherm is <25m. Low level convergence has increased to 20x10-5 s-1 during past 12 hours and lies to the northwest of system center. Vorticity lies in the eastern sector and has increased to 150x10-5 s-1 during past 12 hours. The vorticity is extending up to 200 HPA level and is tilting westwards with height. Vertical wind shear is low (5-10knots). Under these conditions, the depression intensified into a deep depression at 0900 AM UTC. Upper tropospheric ridge lies along latitude 32.0n. The deep layer mean winds indicated northwestward movement initially and then west northwestward movement. Under this steering wind, the deep depression crossed West Bengal coast between Dighaand Diamond Harbour (West Bengal). Though vertical wind shear is favorable,the interaction with land surface and continuous northwestward/ west northwestward movement away from coast will lead to gradual weakening of the system. All numerical models also indicate gradual weakening of the system.
Personally I'm not expecting TD 6/Fiona to become very intense, due to its dry environment and increasing shear late in the forecast path. I'm expecting a 45-50 mph TS at most with it, and as of right now, you can really see the dry air taking its toll on TD 6, with a loss of convection this morning.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been very insistent for a couple of days now on a fast developer coming off the African coast early this weekend, and making a direct strike on Cape Verde. Will be interesting to see if it is right...
Recent ASCAT really couldn't find any tropical storm force winds. Will be back on later for afternoon models to see the scenarios with TD 06/Fiona over the coming days and to see what the next waves might do. Have a good day everyone.
Quoting 758. HurricaneFan:

Personally I'm not expecting TD 6/Fiona to become very intense, due to its dry environment and increasing shear late in the forecast path. I'm expecting a 45-50 mph TS at most with it, and as of right now, you can really see the dry air taking its toll on TD 6, with a loss of convection this morning.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been very insistent for a couple of days now on a fast developer coming off the African coast early this weekend, and making a direct strike on Cape Verde. Will be interesting to see if it is right...

While the GFS has it developing gradually west, we'll see who wins this model battle.
Quoting 753. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 40m
There has been a slight south and westward shift in the track of TD-6 in the most recent ECMWF Ens run.

Not surprised this was never strong to begin with.
Quoting 746. 69Viking:



Unfortunately it will be another month before we see something like that reach NW Florida.

Yeah, I just read the scientific forecast discussion for our area, and it says that yes, a more strong, fall-like cold front will come down into Central/North Alabama/Georgia with cooler dry air, but peter out just north of our area. It stalling will only bring disturbed weather and more possible rain.
New advisory TD6 is not yet a TS
And is now moving WNW instead of NW
I think it may soon go W for a bit

Also cone has shifted South and West as its been doing ever since TD6 formed and I'd expect no changes to that I'd expect the cone to continue shifting South and West for a while
Looks to be heading more NW in the last couple frames, but might just be a jog with it trying to find good convection to surround itself in.

Quoting 729. RavensFan:



It doesn't look to be heading NW, looks more WNW to me.
Quoting 765. Miami305:

Looks to be heading more NW in the last couple frames, but might just be a jog with it trying to find good convection to surround itself in.




Yeah, a lot of northerly movement with this system at present time.
Quoting 764. wunderkidcayman:

New advisory TD6 is not yet a TS
And is now moving WNW instead of NW
I think it may soon go W for a bit

Also cone has shifted South and West as its been doing ever since TD6 formed and I'd expect no changes to that I'd expect the cone to continue shifting South and West for a while

If it goes SW for any length of time, its track would look kind of like a mustache.
Quoting 764. wunderkidcayman:

New advisory TD6 is not yet a TS
And is now moving WNW instead of NW
I think it may soon go W for a bit

Also cone has shifted South and West as its been doing ever since TD6 formed and I'd expect no changes to that I'd expect the cone to continue shifting South and West for a while


So with your forecasted westward movement, where do you think it will be in 5 -7 days?
I think some of you own me a apologize has I said be for that the NHC may not upgrade it earlier and may keep it a TD and you did not believe me
Quoting 768. Llamaluvr:


If it goes SW for any length of time, its track would look kind of like a mustache.


I doubt it would go SW
W-WNW yeah sure

Lol I'm kinda missing the mustache too bad I shaved my face and now I have baby face
Quoting 769. Gearsts:




Is that big one Fiona or Gaston?
Quoting 773. RockinghamRob:



Is that big one Fiona or Gaston?

Gaston. Pretty much what the Euro showed before dropping a low rider. Maybe GFS will pick up on it.
Quoting 770. luvtogolf:



So with your forecasted westward movement, where do you think it will be in 5 -7 days?


Hmm closer to the NE Caribbean maybe eventually ending up somewhere in the Bahamas
Quoting 764. wunderkidcayman:

New advisory TD6 is not yet a TS
And is now moving WNW instead of NW
I think it may soon go W for a bit

Also cone has shifted South and West as its been doing ever since TD6 formed and I'd expect no changes to that I'd expect the cone to continue shifting South and West for a while
Track should still be far north of the islands.
Quoting 771. thetwilightzone:

I think some of you own me a apologize has I said be for that the NHC may not upgrade it earlier and may keep it a TD and you did not believe me

Hmmm....
Your writing style is very similar to someone else that used to blog here....
I notice your recent "member since" date....

Are you StormTrackerScott ???
Quoting 775. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm closer to the NE Caribbean maybe eventually ending up somewhere in the Bahamas



Can you share the steering flow that would get it into the NE Caribbean?
Quoting 777. Llamaluvr:


Hmmm....
Your writing style is very similar to someone else that used to blog here....
I notice your recent "member since" date....

Are you StormTrackerScott ???




No am TAZ. And reported
Quoting 777. Llamaluvr:


Hmmm....
Your writing style is very similar to someone else that used to blog here....
I notice your recent "member since" date....

Are you StormTrackerScott ???



That's Taz.
Would note as to TD6 (soon to be TS) that there is a huge TUTT cell between it and the Bahamas at present that will increase shear downstream and may be a factor in later weakening or dissipation; not confident that it will ever make it, or remnants, to the US IMHO:

 
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
784. MahFL
Just as the NHC says cloudtops on TD6 have warmed they infact cool a little, lol.

Quoting 780. luvtogolf:



That's Taz.


Must of got banned and created another handle
vis. loop almost looks like td6 is moving due north. nail=biter.


Homes burn, thousands flee as out-of-control brush fire chars 30,000 acres in Cajon Pass

30,000 acres burn in 24 hours, man what a number.
Quoting 779. thetwilightzone:




No am TAZ. And reported


You're reported. Ha!
Quoting 763. opal92nwf:

Yeah, I just read the scientific forecast discussion for our area, and it says that yes, a more strong, fall-like cold front will come down into Central/North Alabama/Georgia with cooler dry air, but peter out just north of our area. It stalling will only bring disturbed weather and more possible rain.


Hopefully we can get a couple more days without rain, been pretty soggy lately!
I am having trouble finding Steve Gregory's blog.