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The global tropical cyclone season of 2008: below average

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:25 PM GMT on January 08, 2009

It was a below average year for global tropical cyclone activity, and the destructive power of these storms was close to the lowest levels observed since since reliable records began in the early 1980s. However, the the total number of global deaths from tropical cyclones was the highest since 1991, thanks to the estimated 140,000 people killed in Myanmar from Tropical Cyclone Nargis. The total number of storms world-wide was 90, slightly lower that the average from the past 25 years of 92 (Figure 1). The global number of hurricanes, intense hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), and Category 4 and stronger storms were all below average. Only one Category 5 storm was recorded in 2008--Super Typhoon Jangmi, which attained winds of 165 mph at 06 GMT on September 27, as it approached the north coast of Taiwan. The last time so few Category 5 storms were recorded globally was in 1974, when there were none. The 2008 hurricane season was much above average in the Atlantic, but the Atlantic only accounts for about 13% of all global tropical cyclone activity.


Figure 1. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2008. The three numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2008, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses), followed by the record (in red). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's new International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A notable feature of the 2008 tropical cyclone season was the low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season. ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed. ACE for an individual storm is computed by squaring the maximum sustained winds of the storm at each 6-hourly advisory, and summing up over the entire lifetime of the storm. The ACE value for 2008's storms was close to the low values on record seen in 2000-2001 and the early 1980s (Figure 2). Part of the reason for the low ACE values in 2008 (and in 2007) was due to the presence of a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The last major La Niña event (2000-2001) is clearly evident in Figure 2 as a minimum in global and Northern Hemisphere ACE.


Figure 2. Global (green) and Northern Hemisphere (blue) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 24 month running sum through December 31, 2008. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months. Image credit: Ryan Maue, Florida State University.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
The 2008 global tropical cyclone season shows that these storms are subject to large natural variations. Given this high natural variability and the short record of good data we have (just 25 years or so), it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. The situation is different in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record, and the storms seem to be more sensitive to changes in Sea Surface Temperature. I'll be putting together a full review of the scientific progress on understanding the link between climate change and Atlantic and global hurricane activity over the coming few months.


Figure 3. Satellite image of 2008's strongest tropical cyclone at maximum intensity: Super Typhoon Jangmi. Jangmi was rated a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds at 06 GMT Sep 27, 2008, making it the only Category 5 storm of 2008. The storm eventually weakened to a low-end Category Four before striking Taiwan. It left two people dead and caused at least $800 million (2008 USD) in damages. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Interesting statistics Doc, I am surprised 08 was below average...it didn't seem like it on the Gulf coast, but that is a biased personal view. Thanks for the update.
Thanks Dr. Below average year is good and perhaps a new pattern is establishing itself.
SWFL Surfers: It was GREAT & GLASSY - GET OUT NOW!
Thanks to the Cold Front that passed through yesterday
Currently we do have some fun, glassy lines in the waist /stomach high range. Only 2 tides today so we start out low and slowly will fill in all day.Wind will add some texture as the morning closes, so get out there now. Gulf Temp 66
Off to the barns - track should be in great condition due to last nights light rain -- I wished we had had more rain for the pastures... but not -- something was better then nothing... Adios
Thanks Dr. Masters. It surprises me also that 2008 was below average.
Always interesting to review the facts. We could use more rain down here on the Texas coast, but it does not look like it will shape up as a wet year.
Global is different than individual The atlantic season was Above average. I wonder how 2009 will look like. Also lets note that the planet have been cooling. Sea Ice levels are the same as 29 years ago. A cooler planet might ontibute to smaller numbers.
er um.. uh.. mmm hmmm???

"the INCONVIENEINT BLOG"


....


This is the lesson of the Tao today.




To realize that you do not understand is a virtue; Not to realize that you do not understand is a defect.


Lao Tzu




SURFMOM-Howdy,I was curious to know were you live in Florida?
It does seem like this year is cooler than other recent years, is this reflected in global averages? Is it perhaps related to the volcanos in Chile, or perhaps maybe just a solar fluxuation?
wow very informative!
interesting
"To realize that you do not understand is a virtue; Not to realize that you do not understand is a defect."

That's heavy, man. Why don't you pass the joint over here - it sounds like you've had enough.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20082009
16:00 PM Reunion January 8 2008
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 14.3S 70.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 15.3S 68.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.1S 66.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.2S 66.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 67.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)


Additional Information
=======================
Convective activity associated to this broad circulation still remains very fluctuating and barely consolidates close to the estimated center. Environment is however rather favorable, with a high ocean heat content, a good upper level divergence, and a well established low level equatorward inflow. Thanks to the monsoonal flow, this environment should improve at range 36HRS. The poleward inflow should temporarily rebuild thanks to building subtropical high pressures, the wind shear should decrease and the upper level divergence strengthen due to an upper level trough located in the west of the system. The system is expected to track southwest till range 24 hrs along the northwestern edge of the low to mid level ridge located in the southeast, and then southward towards a weakness in the subtropical pressures, and along the western edge of the ridge located in the east.
little cloud rotation in the nw carib. get ready to rock 2009 hurricane season is coming soon
Strong earthquake shakes Costa Rica
Published: 1/8/09, 3:25 PM EDT
SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) - A strong earthquake shook the Costa Rican capital of San Jose Thursday afternoon, sending frightened residents running into streets.

There were no reports of injuries in the minutes following the earthquake.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the 6.1 magnitude temblor struck 22 miles (35 kilometers) northwest of San Jose, at a depth of 28 miles (35 kilometers).

Canal 7 television showed images of broken windows, fallen ceiling panels and cracked walls. It said the quake was felt strongly throughout the small Central American country.

Interesting, considering 2008 for the Atlantic was one of the most active ever recorded. Tied with 2003 as I think the 6th or the 5th most active. I think there is some chance for Gustav being considered a Category 5 in PSA.
Link
here it looks like a cyclone it should be one
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Link
here it looks like a cyclone it should be one


definitely!!
Anyway, weren't there four Cat 4's?? Dr. Masters said there were only three. Depends on if he was counting Omar, but in the PSA, they said it was a 4. Oh well.
2008 was also strange in that there were no Cat. 5's anywhere in the globe. The last Cat. 5 to occur was Hurricane Felix.
holy moly, look at that front!! All the way from the Yucatan to north of the map!!!
A new Blog... no snow.. no rain.. and I think I saw the sun :)

Life is good :)


Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting Orcasystems:
A new Blog... no snow.. no rain.. and I think I saw the sun :)

Life is good :)


Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site


What's that?
Quoting Cotillion:


What's that?


I wasn't sure what it was either.. I have heard stories about it.. and I am pretty sure Surfmom worships it when she is not surfing.

I have it on rumour only.. it was the sun.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Link
here it looks like a cyclone it should be one


Indeed this system does seem to be going through tropical cyclogenesis. The dynamics of this cyclone have become more uniform, and exuberant over the past couple days. The increase of convection near the vorticity maxima indicates that the lower level convergence is vigorous. Furthermore, low vertical wind shear values should enable this system to distribute its energy with greater efficacy, and thus be more symmetric. The Sea surface temperatures are 82F+ and are adequate for tropical cyclogenesis. This system will continue to move southward, and within 100 hours ( about 4 days) from now, and will become sheared, as it interacts with a mesoscale (A) cyclone. It will also be moving into cooler waters as it moves southward, and should began to substantially degenerate about 84 hrs (3.5 days) from now.


*Overall, there is a chance that this could become a tropical cyclone.....but shouldn't be a significant one.






Quoting hurristat:


definitely!!
Anyway, weren't there four Cat 4's?? Dr. Masters said there were only three. Depends on if he was counting Omar, but in the PSA, they said it was a 4. Oh well.
2008 was also strange in that there were no Cat. 5's anywhere in the globe. The last Cat. 5 to occur was Hurricane Felix.

actually Jangmi was a 5 this year it's my avatar
and I think you're right about Omar being a cat four
maybe there will be some more interesting data from the PSA
futuremet is there a chance it will at least reach hurricane status? I can't get that much info from other ocean cyclones
Strong earthquake rocks Costa Rica, 1 killed
A strong earthquake shook Costa Rica Thursday, …
Play Video Earthquakes Video: Indonesians search for quake victims BBC Play Video Earthquakes Video: At least four dead from Indonesian earthquake Australia 7 News Play Video Earthquakes Video: Deadly quake hits Indonesia Reuters SAN JOSE, Costa Rica – A strong earthquake shook Costa Rica on Thursday, killing a child and sending frightened residents running into the streets of the capital as windows shattered and walls cracked.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the 6.1-magnitude temblor was centered 22 miles (35 kilometers) northwest of the capital of San Jose in the early afternoon, near the Poas Volcano national park.

The Red Cross said in a statement that a young girl, who hasn't yet been identified, was killed by a landslide unleashed by the quake near the city of Alajuela, north of the capital.

Local TV station Teletica showed broken windows, fallen ceiling panels and cracked walls in Alajuela. The quake was felt strongly throughout the small Central American country, Teletica said. Cell phone service was interrupted briefly.

Thousands of people ran from homes and shopping centers, frightened by the quake. In the capital, women kneeled to pray in plazas. Others cried.

There were at least four aftershocks
Quoting all4hurricanes:

actually Jangmi was a 5 this year it's my avatar
and I think you're right about Omar being a cat four
maybe there will be some more interesting data from the PSA


I like your avatar.

Jangmi fortified itself with a ring of spiral bands lol.
Quoting futuremet:


I like your avatar.

Jangmi fortified itself with a ring of spiral bands lol.

Thank you I think everybody on the blog has said how Jangmi was a textbook cyclone lol
If you forget the destruction and death cyclones cause they can really be quite beautiful
I took a picture of a contrail sundog today, but I ended up with a bruised and bleeding finger after I accidentally slammed it in the door.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Thank you I think everybody on the blog has said how Jangmi was a textbook cyclone lol
If you forget the destruction and death cyclones cause they can really be quite beautiful

Actually, Omar was a cat. 4. It was confirmed in the best track.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Actually, Omar was a cat. 4. It was confirmed in the best track.

That's what it said on Wikipedia but everyone says not to trust it. Wikipedia so far hasn't been wrong about a cyclone that I know of except for wind speed
Hmm, that's interesting. Dunno if it's true, but heard on that 'Mega Disasters' that Pinatubo's eruption may have had some effect on hurricanes such as Andrew...

Well, if Mother Earth heats up through GW a bit too much, she can certainly cool right back down with a caldera eruption.

Speaking of eruptions, when was the last time we had a pretty severe one excepting Pinatubo? I can't really recall.
I'm starting a test of WU precipitation prediction capabilities (it is fun to use big words ) anywho I have two days of data and so far WU is not that good but this is a small sample size. Also it flurried today!!! but didn't stick
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEPRESSION (sub-tropical) FOUR-F
9:00 AM FST January 9 2009
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Depression 04F (997 hPa) located at 23.0S 176.0E reported moving south-southeast at 15 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral surface observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

System lies under a moderately sheared environment with convection to the east of TD FOUR.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it southeast with little intensification.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TD SUMMMARY FOR 04F.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
That's what it said on Wikipedia but everyone says not to trust it. Wikipedia so far hasn't been wrong about a cyclone that I know of except for wind speed

---
wind speed recorded at wiki is 10 minute sustained winds except for the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific. That is the only reason for the different in wind speed calculations.

10 minute or 3 minute sustained winds is official for those areas.

not really all that impressive
we should focus on disturbed weather 05 in the Indian ocean
thanks HGW
not just the sw indian ocean to watch for. There is an invest in the Gulf of Carpentaria that is suppose to form into a cyclone by the weekend.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
not just the sw indian ocean to watch for. There is an invest in the Gulf of Carpentaria that is suppose to form into a cyclone by the weekend.

Mmmm-I don't see that cyclone in the making in the Gulf of Carpentaria
Wow it got quiet, did we finally run out of tropical topics? Lets have a poll
How Many storms will form in the Atlantic this year TS:H:MH
15:9:4
let's see how that goes over
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wow it got quiet, did we finally run out of tropical topics? Lets have a poll
How Many storms will form in the Atlantic this year TS:H:MH
15:9:4
let's see how that goes over


15 storms :)

I am busy....too much school work
Quoting futuremet:


15 storms :)

I am busy....too much school work

Do you have to do science fair? or are you beyond/before that?
Ok nobody has posted in 30 minutes did you all go to bed?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok nobody has posted in 30 minutes did you all go to bed?

No...
I predict 17:9:5.
Who won the contest from HurricaneGeek's blog last year..I predicted 16/7/4.
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm, that's interesting. Dunno if it's true, but heard on that 'Mega Disasters' that Pinatubo's eruption may have had some effect on hurricanes such as Andrew...

Well, if Mother Earth heats up through GW a bit too much, she can certainly cool right back down with a caldera eruption.

Speaking of eruptions, when was the last time we had a pretty severe one excepting Pinatubo? I can't really recall.


In fact, there have been several large ones in the past (3-4ish on the VEI (the most recent being Rabaul in New Britain in 2006)), but if you want some recent severe eruptions, here you are:

Cerro Hudson; Southern Chile; 5+ on the VEI
Aug 12 1991
Pinatubo; Luzon; 6
Jun 15 1991
El Chichon; Mexico; 5
Apr 18 1982
Mt. St. Helens; Washington (USA); 6
May 18 1980
Gunung Agung; Indonesia; 5
Mar 17 1963
Bezymianny; Kamchatka; 5
Mar 30 1956
Those are the severe eruptions in the last 50 or so years
I'm gonna be conservative and say 14:5:2
Quoting all4hurricanes:

That's what it said on Wikipedia but everyone says not to trust it. Wikipedia so far hasn't been wrong about a cyclone that I know of except for wind speed

All of the information on Wikipedia comes from other reliable sources (actually, that's where they're supposed to come from). If there's a footnote (eg. "[1]") supporting the information, click on it, and then go to the link that mentions it. Wikipedia never fell for the falsehood that Ike became a cat. 3 near Texas, or that Gustav and Ike were 155 mph.

(Also, I myself am a contributor to Wikipedia. I have made over 8,000 edits there. If you want, you can see my recent contributions here.
Another question for the masses, what do you think the standard measurement for sustained wind speed around the world should be? Also supply the logical SSHS for your wind speed
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

All of the information on Wikipedia comes from other reliable sources (actually, that's where they're supposed to come from). If there's a footnote (eg. "[1]") supporting the information, click on it, and then go to the link that mentions it. Wikipedia never fell for the falsehood that Ike became a cat. 3 near Texas, or that Gustav and Ike were 155 mph.

(Also, I myself am a contributor to Wikipedia. I have made over 8,000 edits there. If you want, you can see my recent contributions here.


You haven't started any articles for Tropical Storms/Hurricanes... tsk tsk
UNYSIS GFSx 15 Jan 0 Zulu Link

948.7mb Low

1039.5mb High
Quite a drop off from five storms of Category 5 intensity in 2007 (Dean, Felix, Sepat, Gonu, Sidr) to only one in 2008.
Yes, I do worship the sun......... : )

Cold front provided some beautiful waves for the surfers of SW Florida. Gulf is at 66. 3/2 wetsuit was perfect. Rip tide was incredible strong -- perihelion (check lowercal's blog) affect is being felt.

Cold front also gave me some big trouble today out east at the polo barn. The warhorse Tahoe -- who has never colicked -- had quite a nasty situation this early evening. Often with a fast change of weather from hot to cold --a horses gut will react -- sometimes they do not drink enough water, or even the sugar content in the grass will change -- weather affects everything - we are all so connected.... I caught it in time, and when I left he was resting comfortably...
Hey all.. I'm in the Tampa Bay area and would like to know of any plan to do the portlight spring walk in the area.. thanks!!
Cyclone likely to form by Sunday
Friday January 9, 2009 - 11:00 EDT

A wind warning has been issued for Territory coastal waters from Daly River Mouth to Alyangula, as the Bureau of Meteorology keeps a close eye on a tropical low that could develop into a cyclone.

The bureau says the low is sitting near the coast of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and there's a good chance it will develop into a cyclone on the weekend.

The low drifted west overnight and is generating thunderstorms.

But the bureau's Billy Lynch says if the cyclone develops, it's likely to make landfall in Queensland.

"The environment in the gulf is pretty good for cyclone development during the weekend, so really all it needs is to get out in to some open water and just spend a bit of time out there, which we're expecting it to do.

"So potentially by Sunday we could have a cyclone."

People along the Territory coast are being warned of increased winds and monsoonal showers through the weekend as a result of the low.

"We're seeing a strengthening of the monsoon winds across the north coast and through the seas to the north, the Arafura Sea and the Banda Sea.

"So we've got a strong wind warning which has been issued for Daly River Mouth to Alyangula, for winds of 20 to 30 knots increasing from Friday morning."

- ABC

© ABC 2008
Forecaster tips big cyclone season for Qld
Wednesday January 7, 2009 - 14:37 EDT

Long-range weather forecaster Hayden Walker has predicted three cyclones for Queensland over the next three months.

Mr Walker believes a cyclone as destructive as Cyclone Larry, which hit the state's far north in 2006, will batter the state this month, followed by storm events in February and March.

He says this month will be the worst.

"The extremity of the activity that I'm looking at - it'll be from the far north all the way down to the border," he said.

"Looking ahead to February, it'll be mostly concentrated to the northern parts of Queensland extending down to the [mid region] which will be associated with cyclonic activity.

"In March it looks good to heavy going into the inland due to cyclonic activity and that'll go right down the Queensland coastline."

Mr Walker has been predicting weather for the last 15 years.

"I base my forecasts on sunspot activity and there's certainly been an intense number of sunspot activities and this time through it's more prolific than normal," he said.

"That'll be good, probably too good for some areas - it's going to be above normal so we need to be pretty wary about it.

"I am pretty worried about this season - it's just shaping up that way, especially the humidity, it's been colossal so far this year."

South-east Queensland is also expected to receive above average rainfall and localised flooding.

"I've pretty well been on track in relation to the storm activity in south-east Queensland from late October through, so everything's turned up as far as I'm concerned," he said.

- ABC

© ABC 2008
wow Meteo France mets posted a bulletin for Tropical Disturbance 06.. but it is the same system as 05.. LOL
Thanks for keeping us informed, Aussie.
AussieStorm
All the information that I have seen this year about Sunspots, they are at a minimum. What give with the forcaster saying they are very active?
Jesse
Thanks for the information Dr. Masters...I sure thought things were a bit more active then they were...Living is South Louisiana, it just seemed that way to me...
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20082009
10:00 AM Reunion January 9 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 16.3S 68.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 16.7S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.7S/68.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.1S 69.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.7S 69.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)


Additional Information
=======================
Convective activity associated to this broad circulation still remains very fluctuating and barely consolidates close to the estimated center, which has relocated according to the first visible imagery and a WINDSAT Pass at 0053z (fix near 16.0S 69.1E). System has moved southwest during the night along an estimated 6 knots. Convective structure is close to a monsoon depression although no scatterometer date confirm the wind field. Over the last 3 to 4 hours convection has started to rebuild west of the estimated low level circulation center. CIMSS data shows that strong easterly shear still remains north of 15S.

Environment is however rather favorable, with a high ocean heat content, a good upper level divergence, and a well established low level equatorward inflow thanks to the monsoonal flow. This environment should improve tomorrow: The poleward inflow should temporarily rebuild thanks to building subtropical high pressures, the wind shear should decrease and the upper level divergence strengthen due to an upper level trough located in the west of the system. At the end of the forecast, the environment should become unfavorable with cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger wind shear. The system is expected to track southwest along the northwestern edge of the low to mid level ridge located in the southeast, and then move southward towards a weakness in the subtropical pressures along the western edge of the ridge located in the east.
So forecast is for 05 to become a severe tropical storm but not a cyclone am I correct?
Morning All - 53 degrees in SW Florida, Gulf waters 66 - still waiting on the dawn
65. ayi
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:52pm on Friday the 9th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria with a centre near Mornington Island at approximately 16.9 degrees South 139.5 degrees East. This is 285 kilometres west southwest of Kowanyama and
95 kilometres north of Burketown. The low is currently slow moving.

The low is expected to remain over the Gulf waters during the next few days while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone late on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated with a strengthening of the monsoon.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST: .Centre located near...... 16.9 degrees South 139.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 55 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 09 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Morning...
67. IKE
Long-term discussion from Jackson,MS.....

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RETURN TO
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM WITH AN AMPLIFICATION OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO OUR CWFA. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES
WITH THE COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND
POSITION ISSUES WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES MAKING THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DIFFICULT. COME SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION AND DESPITE NEAR
FULL INSOLATION...COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD OUR HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MOST
SITES TO RADIATE TO FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO COME INTO PLAY. THE GFS AND NAM DRIFT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE HIGH TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
SHIFTS THE HIGH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CHOICE WILL AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR POTENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THE MODELS
AGREE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE NAM WL GO WITH WARMER
AND MOISTER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA.
AFTER HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY...TUESDAY`S HIGH WILL BE
HELD IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS USHERED INTO OUR AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AID OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS RADIATION
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN
FLOW. OUR AIRMASS WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM AND MOISTEN BEFORE
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER(COLDER) THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT AND ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWFA. THE
GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY 00Z THURSDAY WHILE
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OVER THE OZARKS AT THE SAME TIME WITH THE
ECMWF. THE GFS DROPS THE CENTER >1040MB OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
OUR CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE CENTER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT WILL BE
TURNING MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY ON BRISK NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AND CULMINATING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS NEGATIVE SURFACE
DEW POINTS INTO OUR CWFA THURSDAY. ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE WORTH
NOTING IS THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE QPF OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS BLOWING IN
PRESENTLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE DRY WITH THE FROPA AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WOULD SUGGEST. /22/
68. ayi
From memory Haydon Walker is the son of Lennox Walker, a well known long range weather forecaster. Lennox Walker had some spectacularly accurate long range predictions which turned out accurate whilst others got it wrong. But then, he also had some spectacularly wrong ones as well. I guess it's in the nature of the game.

Also from memory, I recall the Australian BOM saying the outlook for cyclones this season in Queensland was average or below. The outlook for the north and the northwest was for above average activity. We'll see in about four months time.
Quoting TheoJesse:
AussieStorm
All the information that I have seen this year about Sunspots, they are at a minimum. What give with the forcaster saying they are very active?
Jesse
Morning Ike -- hope your morning is as gorgeous as it is here.....
perfect morning in ecfl, hate to have to work on a day like this
Wahoo!
Hurricane Tebow is tracking North from Miami to Gainesville. It came onshore the second half last night, much later than expected.
Heavy precipitation of joy was experienced, with the reign bands playing till well after middnight. After the storm reaches Gainesville on Saturday, it is expected to downgrade to a tropical depression until next season. The High pressure to go NFL will determine Tebow and regional direction. Hopefully steering currents from the North will keep it in Gainesville a little longer.
Gm,all,nice to see everyone down south enjoying nice weather,here in the northeast winter has settled in for a long stretch.
My current weather conditions are "snow, freezing fog". I know all about snow, fog, freezing rain, etc., but I've never heard of freezing fog before.

What is freezing fog and why is it a weather condition?
FREEZING FOG --doesn't sound like anything I'd like blanketing me. back in the evening
WEEKEND OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
FTpiercecane -- I got lovely waves yesterday from the cold front.... best surf in months!!!! Really cleaned-up my attitude -- LOL --adios
...Suppose it is foggy outside and the temperature is 30 F. Fog tends to not produce measurable precipitation by itself but it can still wet and moisten objects. In the case of freezing fog, the fog cloud droplets are supercooled. When a droplet contacts an object below freezing it will turn to ice. When only freezing fog occurs, there will be just about as much freezing of the fog droplets onto surfaces as there will be sublimation from the surface, thus there is not much accumulation of ice. Often freezing fog will be accompanied with freezing drizzle. In that case, a film of ice will coat surfaces...

Freezing Fog
Check out how the NWS is wording the forecast for the Clarksville, TN region. You don't see cold fronts described like this everyday.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BONAFIDE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ROAR THROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW MORE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS SPORTING A 1058 MB PRESSURE READING AS IT SHIFTS FROM SW CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.
77. Interesting. Thanks, beell. Our current temp is 21, up from 19 not too long ago, which isn't too far off from the 14degree threshold for ice fog (which I'd never heard of either).

The info on the link indicated that freezing fog is oftentimes combined with freezing drizzle. Not so right now. We're in a heavy snow band.

It's a lovely day outside.... not.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Thursday Island.

At 10:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria at approximately 16.0 degrees South 136.7 degrees East, which is 26 kilometres southeast of Port McArthur and 275 kilometres west northwest of Mornington Island. The low is currently slow moving.

The low is expected to slowly move over Gulf waters on Saturday and remain over water for the next few days while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone late on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated with a strengthening of the monsoon. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
It's a lovely day outside.... not.

65F and Sunny in Houston ILW!
(sorry)
Was beginning to enjoy our burst of warm weather here in SWFL =(
Thinking l should have been born further south this whole sub 70's thing isn't working for me ..lol..
Link to more interesting weather information on the likely hood of Tornado formation.

Predicting When Tornadoes Will Strike
Meteorologists found connections between the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific OceanLink
Flooded NW Qld prepares for weekend cyclone alert
Friday January 9, 2009 - 14:28 EDT

Residents in north-west Queensland are bracing for more rain and flooding, with the first cyclone of the Queensland season predicted to form by Sunday.

A monsoonal trough has dumped torrential rain on the region this week, cutting off towns and causing more than $21 million in damage.

Meteorologist Jim Davidson says conditions are right for a cyclone to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend.

Mr Davidson says if it does form, the cyclone will move across Cape York Peninsula, bringing torrential rain from Cooktown to Townsville.

"Fairly significant falls along that part of the coast come Monday, Tuesday - we're looking at several hundred millimetres," he said.

If a cyclone does form, it will be named Charlotte.

Road and rail links remain cut and food and fuel are now being stockpiled across north-west Queensland.

Food drops have been carried out by helicopter in Burketown and outlying properties.

Authorities are monitoring river levels in Mount Isa, Julia Creek and Cloncurry.

Emergency Management Queensland executive director Frank Pagano the situation in Mount Isa is under control.

"They're coping quite well right now," he said.

Burketown is scheduled to have an emergency food drop with other supplies on Tuesday.

Burketown publican Gregg Watt says the town has become an island in an inland sea, but the rain so far has been welcome.

"Cattle [are] looking well, there's a lot of green grass around, plenty of water at the moment but that's only a small inconvenience and I think everyone's looking forward to a good year," he said.

The Cattle Council of Australia says it has not received reports of major stock losses in the state's flooded north-west, but that could change if a cyclone hits the region.

Council president Greg Brown says there will be plenty of stock feed when the rain clears.

"Everybody is probably happier with what's happening with regards to the weather, rather than worrying about stock losses at this stage," he said.

"I just don't think at this stage we're seeing huge stock losses at all, but that will again depend on a bit on what occurs.

"There is a cyclone allegedly building - If all those events come together then it might be a bit of a different situation."

- ABC

© ABC 2008
85. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Ike -- hope your morning is as gorgeous as it is here.....


Sunny and 61 degrees right now.


I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link

2009 National Hurricane Conference



April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparednes Link

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.

Participating Organizations Link
Looking at next week's forecast for Florida, I sure am glad we decided to pospone our vacation in Dunedin. I need a good dose of warm air and Florida sunshine! Living in Northeast Ohio, on the shores of Lake Erie, in the heart of the "snowbelt", I can tell you that this winter has already been long and brutal. And it's about to become worse. We're under a winter storm warning for tonight and tomorrow; next week brings a nasty artic storm into our region.
Off topic, but if anyone is interested, a couple new 3+ quakes hit recently. Also, the live seismogram directly under the lake is inactive since yesterday evening.

Link

Link

Link
First time posting in this forum, but regarding the 4.5 quake in San Bernardino yesterday evening, check out this article posted several hours before the quake:

Geologist Predicts Earthquake, Meteorologist Says The Pattern is Right

And then this one posted after...

Geologist and Meteorologist Successfully Double Team in Earthquake Prediction.

Interesting perspective on using weather and tides to predict earthquakes. This prediction seemed to work out.
Quoting hurristat:


You haven't started any articles for Tropical Storms/Hurricanes... tsk tsk

That's true, but only because the WikiProject Tropical Cyclones, which I am a member of, is so fact at updating and starting new articles on tropical cyclones. I do most of my updating on interwikis (Wikipedias in other languages).
very interesting read Yamson...Thanks.

and welcome to WU!
93. ayi
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54am on Saturday the 10th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld border to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 am EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria with a centre near 15.3 degrees South 136.8 degrees East. This is 65 kilometres north northeast of Port McArthur and 295 kilometres west northwest of Mornington Is. The low has moved north at 13 km/h during the past 6 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters for the next few days while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated with a strengthening of the monsoon. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 136.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... N at 13 km/h
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Saturday 10 January.
Lots of rain coming my way over the next week it seems... around 20mm on Wednesday night alone, apparently.

Only warning in effect is for the Outer Hebrides (Islands on the NW coast of Scotland)...

Here's what Metcheck had to say...

"For Scotland and Northern Ireland its a somewhat different story, as freshening southwesterly winds are already bringing milder conditions in from off the Atlantic. Later tonight, outbreaks of rain will move in as well, and this rain will then slowly spread its way southeast across the whole of the UK during the upcoming weekend, but probably not reaching southeast England by early Monday.

For Saturday then, another fine, cold and bright day is in store for England and Wales once any early fog gradually clears away. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudy with some rain at times, and it will become very windy here with southwesterly gales gusting up to 75mph across the northwest. Brighter and more showery conditions will reach the northwest later in the day."

So, hurricane force gales for them... what fun. I do find it kinda amusing how the Met Office never mentions the world 'Hurricane' at all costs. Always severe gales. 'course, by the Beaufort Scale (of which the word and usage of 'Gale' would come from), 75mph is rightly called 'hurricane force'.

However, if the Met said that, the media and the public would probably go into a full blown panic.

Still hinting on a strong low pressure moving in around the 20th, with gales and such... See how that plays out.
Seems as though cold weather will continue to dominate the eastern section of the country. By late next week the GFS shows a nearly 1060mb surface arctic high advecting down from Canada. It shows this high coming towards the deep south as a 500mb longwave trough sinks deeply southward with 1000mb-500mb thickness of 540dm and 850mb temps of 0C northern panhandle of Florida. This in combination with low level moisture advection from the south could reproduce another snow event for the deep south as far south as northern Florida as indicated by both the GFS 6z and 12z as well as the DGEX. Will keep you guys updated since I look for special weather events for the south when analyzing the models.
Link
Link
Link
96. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Seems as though cold weather will continue to dominate the eastern section of the country. By late next week the GFS shows a nearly 1060mb surface arctic high advecting down from Canada. It shows this high coming towards the deep south as a 500mb longwave trough sinks deeply southward with 1000mb-500mb thickness of 540dm and 850mb temps of 0C northern panhandle of Florida. This in combination with low level moisture advection from the south could reproduce another snow event for the deep south as far south as northern Florida as indicated by both the GFS 6z and 12z as well as the DGEX. Will keep you guys updated since I look for special weather events for the south when analyzing the models.
Link
Link
Link


Maybe some snow here in the Florida panhandle! One things almost a certainty....VERY cold temps.
Wow, that insane high pressure system late next week, will, from what I estimate, give us a windchill of -35C (-31F) Thursday morning, and plus I have to walk a whole mile at that time! Would you guys in the Southern CONUS even be able to survive that kind of cold? LOL.
OK, I just did some searching, and the forecast for Atlanta, GA is definitely broken. Link (temps are in Celcius) It's like that on WU also, and it makes no sense at all (unless all the negatives are really positive). Anyone know the real weather in that area?
99. IKE
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow, that insane high pressure system late next week, will, from what I estimate, give us a windchill of -35C (-31F) Thursday morning, and plus I have to walk a whole mile at that time! Would you guys in the Southern CONUS even be able to survive that kind of cold? LOL.


With multiple layered clothing.
Astro -18C is 0 F, sounds like it may be a default setting for missing or corrupted data?
Quoting IKE:


Maybe some snow here in the Florida panhandle! One things almost a certainty....VERY cold temps.

I'm wondering, what would you consider "VERY cold temps"? Farenheit or Celcius is fine, but please indicate which. I would consider anything below -25C (-13F) (actual temperature, not windchill) to be very cold.
102. ayi
Just a question for anyone who might be able to shed a little light for me on the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria (Australia).

In advisory 3 they say it may develop into a cyclone Sunday (tomorrow). From the position and movement they give it's moving into higher wind shear, between 20 - 30 knots. I'm a total novice but it seems to me that wind shear would be too high for it to develop.

Is there something else I should know about (other than studying Meteorology for Dummies 101)? Or, being a public advisory, are they just being cautious? An enquiring mind would like to know.
OK, here's a more accurate representation of what I would percieve a "feels-like" temperature (not the actual temperature, this time, the numbers account for wind chill, humidity, sunshine, precipitation hitting face, and other factors, simply because I have nothing better to do, and if a given temperature is not within a range, then go to the range closest, and this is just an estimate).

Unbearably hot: > 49C (> 120F)
Extremely hot: 41C - 48C (106F - 118F)
Very hot: 37C - 40C (99F - 104F)
Hot: 32C - 36C (90F - 97F)
Moderately hot: 29C - 31C (84F - 88F)
Very warm: 27C - 28C (81F - 82F)
Warm: 23C - 26C (73F - 79F)
Mild: 19C - 22C (66F - 72F)
Temperate: 17C - 18C (63F - 64F)
Slightly cool: 15C - 16C (59F - 61F)
Moderately cool: 12C - 14C (54F - 57F)
Cool: 10C - 11C (50F - 52F)
Brisk: 8C - 9C (46F - 48F)
Chilly: 4C - 7C (39F - 45F)
Very chilly: 2C - 3C (36F - 37F)
Moderately cold: -3C - 1C (27F - 34F)
Cold: -28C - -4C (-18F - 25F)
Very cold: -33C - -29C (-27F - -20F)
Extremely cold: -37C - -32C (-35F - -26F)
Unbearably cold: < -38C (< -36F
GFSX 10 Day ,..Day 7, 0zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link
Quoting IKE:


Maybe some snow here in the Florida panhandle! One things almost a certainty....VERY cold temps.


You guys may be in for highs only in the upper 40s.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I'm wondering, what would you consider "VERY cold temps"? Farenheit or Celcius is fine, but please indicate which. I would consider anything below -25C (-13F) (actual temperature, not windchill) to be very cold.


It's relative to location.
107. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


You guys may be in for highs only in the upper 40s.


I've seen it colder then that here. One day years ago we had highs in the 20's. If the latest GFS verifies, I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't colder then upper 40's for highs.
U.S. Representatives Alcee L. Hastings, D-Miramar, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami, today introduced a bill authorizing $2.35 billion to improve hurricane research.

The funding would help scientists better understand how hurricanes form and intensify.

It also would enhance early warning systems, and hurricane tracking and prediction capabilities, the congressmen said
Quoting ayi:
Just a question for anyone who might be able to shed a little light for me on the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria (Australia).

In advisory 3 they say it may develop into a cyclone Sunday (tomorrow). From the position and movement they give it's moving into higher wind shear, between 20 - 30 knots. I'm a total novice but it seems to me that wind shear would be too high for it to develop.

Is there something else I should know about (other than studying Meteorology for Dummies 101)? Or, being a public advisory, are they just being cautious? An enquiring mind would like to know.


Maybe the shear is forecast to decrease? Or although shear is there, it will not be close enough to weaken it, and instead, it will ventilate its outflow pattern and aid in intensification? This, of course, is my uneducated guess without looking at any map.
wow this is from nws discussion here said this evening wouldn't u believe it a wintery mix the rgv
000
FXUS64 KBRO 100202
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...WAITING ON FROPA EARLY SAT PM. THIS ONE WILL BE WEAK
AS COMPARED TO THE AMS BREWING IN NW CANADA ATTM. TEMPS WILL REACH
75 IN BRO SAT...THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE EVENING. SOME
SHRAS SAT PM THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN DRY BY NOON SUN. SFC WINDS
WILL NOT RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY...AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE MS VLY AND BITTER COLD AIR BEGINS IT`S
ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST MDLS ARE SHOWING STRONG FROPA EARLY
THURSDAY MRNG THEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO 0 DEG TO -3 DEG C BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH PCPN FALLING THRU THIS COLD AIR. THESE COLD TEMPS
REMAIN THRU NOON FRIDAY...AND A WINTERY MIX OF PCPN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY ATTM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FCST FROM THE NWS IN BRO AS THIS COLD AMS BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE DURING THE ENTRY OF
THIS AMS THU/FRI.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOUR
10:50 AM Australian EST January 10 2009
=========================================

At 10:00 am AEST, a broad Weak Tropical Low [998 hPa] lay across the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria near 15.1S 136.8E or 80 kms north northeast of Port McArthur and 315 kms northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 25 knots. The low has moved north at 13 km/h during the past 6 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters for the next few days while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Sunday afternoon.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated with a strengthening of the monsoon. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
=========================
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Port McArthur (Northern Territory) to Thursday Island.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow, that insane high pressure system late next week, will, from what I estimate, give us a windchill of -35C (-31F) Thursday morning, and plus I have to walk a whole mile at that time! Would you guys in the Southern CONUS even be able to survive that kind of cold? LOL.


I assume that I get the same!!! Holy moly!!!
Good evening everyone.....
Looks like one Alberta Clipper after another going into the Plains, MidWest and NorthEast coming for the next 7 days.
Until the High out West moves out .....Colder weather in the MidWest and South will occur along with the Alberta Clippers....

I updated my Weather Blog today if anyone would like to view!
Quoting IKE:


I've seen it colder then that here. One day years ago we had highs in the 20's. If the latest GFS verifies, I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't colder then upper 40's for highs.


You may he right as the surface anticyclone sends that deep flow southward. I'd prefer to be more conservative at the moment though.
Aussiestorm~ I mostly agree with the long term forecaster you posted about Queensland's increased risk this year with a better than good chance for a severe one. Our why's couldn't be more different. His being the unusually high number of sunspots lately (what?)~ Mine, the spot in the world with the highest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potentail is just to the NE of there.


& it's looking like Hispanola last season, a warm deep pooled bath, pushing the chart.


It's the result of the duldrums.. When weather conspires to bore you to death, while conserving energy to later dish out extremes.


Quoting TampaSpin:
Until the High out West moves out .....Colder weather in the MidWest and South will occur along with the Alberta Clippers....

the cold is only just beginning bitter air will go south deep with freeze lines all along n fla panhadle west to al miss la eastern texas starting on monday with a big storm to dev on spine of app then move ne to offshore dragging coldest air of season down with it with clippers following behind this pattern to remain till 19 then a change up over pacific nw allowing systems to come in off pacific and track ne ward up over yukon nwt will cut the supply and flow of cold air off with airmass modification occuring beginning on the 20 if all this falls into place a potential significant stormy pattern will dev for the last 10 days of jan with severe to the south heavy snows to the north as builting warmth rtns on the gom rtn flow clashing with the zonal flow over the northern interior southern canada
Looks like we'll probably get a decent amount of a cool air here in southeast florida, but the longwave trough in the eastern U.S. doesn't look to be deep enough to bring the heart of the coldest air too far south. Basically, most of the models are showing a modifying arctic air mass entering Florida probably Thursday, with coldest temps either Thursday or Friday.The CMC and UKMET are a little colder than the GFS/ECMWF.We could still end up with minsslightly below 50 for Miami area, but unless the pattern shifts (and it could,it won't take much to bring the trough farther south),I don't expect any
problems with sub-40 temps here.

Adrian
by thur fri temps high 50's for south fla low 40's for a couple of days
system to dev tue weak at first but organizing tue night wed over se with one area and over ohio with second area then it really spins itself up as it moves off to the offshore then tracks n to canadien martimes then ne to nfld and deepens at the moment on tuse wed fla looks to get 20 to 25 mm of precip over panhandle with 10 to 15 mm for south of there
122. XL
Hi Guys

I have learnt a ot during my first hurricane season, but find myself eager for more. Can anyone point me in the right direction of a course or source of info that will imncrease my knowledge for the seasons to come.

Thanks in advance

XL
Quoting XL:
Hi Guys

I have learnt a ot during my first hurricane season, but find myself eager for more. Can anyone point me in the right direction of a course or source of info that will imncrease my knowledge for the seasons to come.

Thanks in advance

XL


Most of what I know comes from these places:
Weather Prediction Education
AMS online journals
Thanks Drak, nice links.. and good morning sir.
Early Birds where are you? Morning! Waiting on sunrise and getting ready to enjoy a post card weather perfect czy in SWFL

Post 90 YAMON - made my morning....!!! Kinda fun when the things I wonder about --may actually be so!!

While many agree that earthquake prediction is impossible, Meteorologist Kevin Martin of the Southern California Weather Authority begs to differ. "I've noticed that weather patterns affect our fault lines, "said Martin. "In fact, during the Northridge Quake of 1994 a large ridge of high pressure was parked in the exact same spot one will be during our next Santa Ana Wind event. The window for that is January 9th to the 14th. This is exactly in Geologist Jim Berkland's window. So any bets on the table for a larger quake would be during that window."
ahh a few early folks up - morning rvrguy - up early to fish, work or just enjoy the sunrise? ...last nights moon was so bright I kept waking up.... hoping the horses slept and were not up to mischief
Hey all.

Latest now even more bullish on a Windstorm.. pressure now estimated at around 940mb. With tons of rain, and probably nasty winds.

Wind forecast for those days are predicting winds approaching 90mph, with higher gusts I'd expect. Especially for Scotland, Ireland, N Ireland and the N of England. Around Wed 21-Fri 23. (Highest I saw was 97mph.) A bit skeptical though on the windspeeds, as the model for that seems a bit broken.. we'll see.

This event has been forecasted on several runs, so it's not looking good.

Severe gales still impacting Scotland and Ireland, think we're just out of the zone, thankfully.

Heavy rain for next 2 days too. :(

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54pm on Saturday the 10th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Port
McArthur to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southwestern Gulf of
Carpentaria with a centre near 14.8 degrees South 137.0 degrees East. This is
120 kilometres north northeast of Port McArthur and 315 kilometres northwest of
Mornington Island. The low has moved north at 13 km/h during the past 6 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters for the next few days
while slowly deepening. It may develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone on Sunday
evening.

Gales associated with the Monsoon flow over the northern Gulf are expected to
develop overnight and into Sunday, however gales associated near the low may
develop later on Sunday.

The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the
southern and eastern Gulf coasts. Potentially damaging wind gusts to 100km/hr
are expected to develop overnight and through Sunday north of Kowanyama.

A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for locally damaging winds and
abnormally high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 137.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... N at 13 km/h
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 10 January.
Good morning surfmom, afternoon Cotillion

Cotillion - How quickly will the system pass through? Those kind of winds over a sustained time period could do some damage. The idea of hurricane force winds and winter temperatures is appalling.

Good morning AussieStorm -
It seems as if your governmental authorities are on top of things. - Is that your impression? Will folks be evacuating?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning surfmom, afternoon Cotillion

Cotillion - How quickly will the system pass through? Those kind of winds over a sustained time period could do some damage. The idea of hurricane force winds and winter temperatures is appalling.



If it does occur, then probably be through a day. The pressure is very low, even for a windstorm... even Kyrill was only 962mb and that packed winds up to Cat 3 strength. (Did about 2.1 billion damage in Euros across Europe... not sure how that works in $.)

It'll probably be nasty if it pops up, but it's certainly not uncommon to have a system like this at this time of year. Late Jan-early Feb seems to be the peak.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning AussieStorm -
It seems as if your governmental authorities are on top of things. - Is that your impression? Will folks be evacuating?

Well in the last week the northern part of QLD have had Higher than normal monsoonal rains, causing road wash-outs and evacs. The BOM is expecting this tropical low to form into a Cyclone on Sunday but if it doesn't it will still bring large amounts of rain to northern QLD of up to 400mm in the coming week especially around the north-east coast of QLD. So far there has been about AU$12Mil worth of damage, mainly to roads and other infrastructure.
Cheers AussieStorm
Quoting Drakoen:


Most of what I know comes from these places:
Weather Prediction Education
AMS online journals


I use weather prediction the most since it talks about a LOT of advance topics.

These are also great websites:

Link

Link

Link

Link


Link

Link (Great site)

Nevertheless, know this, the most important thing is to apply this knowledge to real time atmospheric events.

Cotillion, AussieStorm - Will be watching with y'all.

Futuremet - Good morning - thanks for the links.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cotillion, AussieStorm - Will be watching with y'all.

Futuremet - Good morning - thanks for the links.


thanks...and good morning to you too KEHcharleston
KEH....please turn the thermometer up a few degrees....
morning all, little chilly here this fine day had 38.4 for the low temp here in zephyrhills FL
Charlotte (Panther Town) will be about 50F and rainy tonight.

Have a good day everyone
Quoting presslord:
KEH....please turn the thermometer up a few degrees....


I am trying - darn thing seems to be stuck.
KEH i'm pulling for your panthers dont let me down. like the rain issue makes for an even game.
Futuremet Prodcutions 2.0!!!


I will be working more on my online real-time forecasting project, since I do not have excessive school work this weekend.

I am currently practicing my voice and configuring hardware devices. Once everything is completed, I will posts forecasts online via internet. What is so unique about this project is that, I will be using my own voice to make this forecast. I have been practicing my voice over the past couple of days to veil my horrid accent lol. I just hope that my accent doesn't prove to be a burden to me.

I will post a test video here today.


Hopefully I will get some feedback.
Way too cold for me today...ugh.

G'Morning all.

Quoting XL:
Hi Guys

I have learnt a ot during my first hurricane season, but find myself eager for more. Can anyone point me in the right direction of a course or source of info that will imncrease my knowledge for the seasons to come.

Thanks in advance

XL


Though, I think futurmet covered it among his links, I have to do this.

The COMET program has a wealth of information. May of the topics covered are meant for those pursuing a BS, but it is presented in a way that most can understand and you can work through the modules at your own pace. The system includes a lot of flash and interactive work. The graphics are very well done and designed to help with understanding. Very cool.
Quoting atmoaggie:
G'Morning all.



Though, I think futurmet covered it among his links, I have to do this.

The COMET program has a wealth of information. May of the topics covered are meant for those pursuing a BS, but it is presented in a way that most can understand and you can work through the modules at your own pace. The system includes a lot of flash and interactive work. The graphics are very well done and designed to help with understanding. Very cool.


I did lol

the sites are use the most are:

Weather prediction
MetED
Atmost
145. P451
Damn... screwed out of yet another storm here in central Jersey. Went to sleep with a 3-5 inch prediction. Wake up with a 1 inch then rain prediction. Boooooooo!!!!

This is also the system that 10 days ago was predicted to pass to our south and spawn a big coastal low. Instead it will pass north and form a harmless secondary low that will just go out to sea.

Not a bad prediction on the initial system. 10 days out and they're off about 150 miles or so.

I just want a good snow storm and so far it hasn't taken shape. 100 miles north of me will be pushing 30 inches on the year already with this latest storm however. So maybe it's just a matter of time. Waiting for that coastal low train to set up. Doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon.
Quoting P451:
Damn... screwed out of yet another storm here in central Jersey. Went to sleep with a 3-5 inch prediction. Wake up with a 1 inch then rain prediction. Boooooooo!!!!

This is also the system that 10 days ago was predicted to pass to our south and spawn a big coastal low. Instead it will pass north and form a harmless secondary low that will just go out to sea.

Not a bad prediction on the initial system. 10 days out and they're off about 150 miles or so.

I just want a good snow storm and so far it hasn't taken shape. 100 miles north of me will be pushing 30 inches on the year already with this latest storm however. So maybe it's just a matter of time. Waiting for that coastal low train to set up. Doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon.


why do you want a good snow storm? snowboarding?
What a weather pattern we are stuck in......High pressure out west keep pulling Lows out of Canada and rushing in cold air while the High in the GOM or near Florida keeps the Pineapple express coming with all the mositure from the Pacific. This will eventually produce a very large snow event for the SouthEast!
Quoting futuremet:


I use weather prediction the most since it talks about a LOT of advance topics.

These are also great websites:

Link

Link

Link

Link


Link

Link (Great site)

Nevertheless, know this, the most important thing is to apply this knowledge to real time atmospheric events.



Those are some great links there futuremet ive used a few during my studies at FSU.Thanks for posting them i lost most of them due to a pc crash.
I cannot believe high Warm the waters in the GOM, Carribean and the Atlantic still are...

Dongo looks like it is forming an eye
Quoting hurricane23:


Those are some great links there futuremet ive used a few during my studies at FSU.Thanks for posting them i lost most of them due to a pc crash.


You go to FSU?

How is the meteorology program there?
Quoting futuremet:


You go to FSU?

How is the meteorology program there?


Yep...Almost done with my bachelors degree should be done later this year possibly around december time-frame.You can find more HERE about there programs. Great school.

Iam sending in my application for a position at my local NWS office later this year so alot going on for me hopefully everything turns out ok. Gotta run wife just finished making breakfast. Adrian
powerhouse storm forming off of n. japan heading east giant surf coming to hi and calif next wk happy weather
A comparison of GOES-12 and GOES-13 visible images centered near Rolla (station identifier KVIH) in southern Missouri (above) showed that widespread river valley fog was dissipating during the morning hours on 27 August 2008. Note the improvement in image-to-image navigation on the GOES-13 data (less “wobble” of the images), due to changes in the spacecraft design on the newer GOES-13 satellite.

Video of the Imagery Link

A comparison of GOES-11 and GOES-13 water vapor channel images (below) demonstrates the improved detection of mesoscale mountain waves over far southwestern Alberta and northwestern Montana on that same day. The spatial resolution of the GOES-13 water vapor channel is 4 km, compared to 8 km on the older GOES-11 satellite.
Quoting futuremet:


I use weather prediction the most since it talks about a LOT of advance topics.

These are also great websites:

Link

Link

Link

Link


Link

Link (Great site)

Nevertheless, know this, the most important thing is to apply this knowledge to real time atmospheric events.



Yes, it is a good website but sometimes it doesn't relate something to everything else. Sometimes it lacks that application. That MetEd is a good site too... that's the one a couldn't remember to put in my list.
156. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
What a weather pattern we are stuck in......High pressure out west keep pulling Lows out of Canada and rushing in cold air while the High in the GOM or near Florida keeps the Pineapple express coming with all the mositure from the Pacific. This will eventually produce a very large snow event for the SouthEast!


Which will hopefully eventually translate to some nice coastal storms for the mid-atlantic!

We're going into the deep freeze first though.


Quoting futuremet:


why do you want a good snow storm? snowboarding?


Nope. I just want a nice big snow storm. Haven't had a good one since Feb 2002. Most we had last year was one little 3 inch storm. Year before was nothing except that disaster valentines ice storm. Year before that, nothing. Year before that if I recall a nice little 1 footer and nothing else.

So it's been some time since we've had a real good storm.

I miss the snow storms.
1061mb Arctic Surface high over the plains region next week according to the Link

GFS 1000mb-500mb thickness of 540dm over Central Florida with a nice stratocumulus cloud deck just off-shore and 850mb OC isotherm all the way down the Lake Okeechobee...Link

If it verifies it would be the coldest shot of air we have seen yet in South Florida with pretty much all of the state ranging from temps in the upper 20s to upper 40s for overnight lows.Link

06Z DGEX is even colder than the GFS.
if it does work out my temps here in south central ontario will be -15c to -20c during day windchills -30c to -35c

at night -25c to -30c windchills -40c to -45c starting wed running until sunday

and to kick it off maybe 15 to 20 cm of snow beginning tus afternoon until wed during the day then the outbreak of cold begins
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVEN
TROPICAL LOW 05U
4:50 AM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 4:00 am AEST, a Tropical Low [995 hPa] located at 16.0S 138.9E or 85 kms north northwest of Mornington Island and 310 kms west of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The Low is moving slowly east.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters while deepening. It may develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone later today.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening monsoon flow over the northern Gulf are expected to develop about the northern Cape York Peninsula coast later today. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING has been issued for coastal and island communities from Weipa to Queensland/Northern Territory border.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from the Torres Strait Islands to Weipa, and the Queensland/Northern Territory border to Port McArthur in the Northern Territory.
Sunny weather... poof gone :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if it does work out my temps here in south central ontario will be -15c to -20c during day windchills -30c to -35c

at night -25c to -30c windchills -40c to -45c starting wed running until sunday

and to kick it off maybe 15 to 20 cm of snow beginning tus afternoon until wed during the day then the outbreak of cold begins


Happy Dance.. Happy Dance :)


Oooopps.. I mean... sorry to hear that the Centre of the Universe is having adverse weather conditions..
No chance of surf today, although the kiters may find some brief time on the water with our local winds S/SE @ about 10-15knts. There are a few little skim lines lapping the beach for the skimmer's, and we may have a small Longboard wave tomorrow with the approach of our next front (Monday night) which doesn't look to bring a whole lot of surf to WC. The pattern does make a switch late next week with a series of fronts lined up to remind us that we are in the heart of winter! Gulf Temp 67
Drak,

Looks like some nice convection firing over the Southeast today =) =)

You knew I wouldn't let that one slide. lol
Quoting sullivanweather:
Drak,

Looks like some nice convection firing over the Southeast today =) =)

You knew I wouldn't let that one slide. lol


We were talking about two different things before lol. I was talking about the current situation you were talking about the situation for the future. I think you and futuremet confused each other and confused me... I think...
You did kind of just jump in there and didn't catch the beginning of the convo...lol

This was the system I was talking about, though.
Quoting sullivanweather:
You did kind of just jump in there and didn't catch the beginning of the convo...lol

This was the system I was talking about, though.


My bad for trying to put in some insight. Won't happen again lol...
Quoting Drakoen:


We were talking about two different things before lol. I was talking about the current situation you were talking about the situation for the future. I think you and futuremet confused each other and confused me... I think...


Wait what? lol

Drak,

It better not! *shakes fist briskly*

hahaha
Good Evening everyone- on this exciting evening(if you can see it when the moon is at perigee- of couse it has been clear up to now- when it's time to watch- but now cloudy- but a full moon in the Caribbean for much of the year =rain- hopefully it will clear) It is only 76F with winds from NNE at about 10km, somewhat blustery and to us(note astro #103- quite cold)- more on that later.

Wow! Harmon and Surfmom, again, it all seems so logical. I haven't had time to check it out- but besides San Bernadino and Costa Rica it would be interesting to know what other Pacific volcanic formations from Alaska down to Chile have shown above noraml activity at this precise point in time. because as I was just reading, it doesn't matter where you are north or south , the moon's effects will be the same. I also didn't know that the moon is moving away from us over 1 centimeter per year (??)- sorry I forget the exact data, but vey significant, and this is a "permanent feature"

Even tho we can't gether data over a millenium as the scientists studying the relationship between weather and volcanic activity in So. Cal have discussed, there should be a way to put past data together and keep monitoring what they are seeing and predicting. To be able to predict an earthquake even 50%possible would be a major feat.

Re 149-TampaSpin- believe it! Our average daily weather is around 88F in January, and I know from data going back to the 18th century that this is significantly higher than historically- which brings me to AStro's#103- I'm sorry but don't you think that your comfort zones re temperatures are quite relative??? I mean If 88F is what i and millions, even billions of people experience on a daily basis as normal- what is your system saying- or for those in the coldest belts- the Inuit, or in the andes or mongolia, etc. etc. what they deem warm and cold is very different than what you all in the temperate zones do- and what is more interesting is the human being's capacity to adapt to hot and cold weather depending on where they and their ancestors were raised- so I think, with all due respect, that your table is quite ethnocentric. But it would be interesting to see what other scientists have to say about climate zones and human tolerance, and even more important-for those who want to be comfortable- comfort zones! But I can tell you that your ranges are completely out of the ballpark in manymany areas for me and what i live with.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number EIGHT
TROPICAL LOW 05U
7:50 AM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 7:00 am AEST, a Tropical Low [994 hPa] located at 16.2S 139.0E or 55 kms north northwest of Mornington Island and 315 kms west southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The low has moved southeast at 10 km/hr during the past 3 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters while deepening. It is likely to develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone this afternoon.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and 110 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Weipa and the NT/QLD border during the next 24 hours.

Coastal residents between Weipa and the NT/QLD border are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening monsoon flow over the northern Gulf are expected about the northern Cape York Peninsula coast later today. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warning/Watches
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING has been issued for coastal and island communities from Weipa to Northern Territory/Queensland border.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from the Torres Strait Islands to Weipa, and Northern Territory/Queensland border and Port McArthur.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Dongo looks like it is forming an eye


It is too weak of a storm..
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number EIGHT
TROPICAL LOW 05U
7:50 AM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 7:00 am AEST, a Tropical Low [994 hPa] located at 16.2S 139.0E or 55 kms north northwest of Mornington Island and 315 kms west southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The low has moved southeast at 10 km/hr during the past 3 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters while deepening. It is likely to develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone this afternoon.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and 110 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Weipa and the NT/QLD border during the next 24 hours.

Coastal residents between Weipa and the NT/QLD border are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening monsoon flow over the northern Gulf are expected about the northern Cape York Peninsula coast later today. The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warning/Watches
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING has been issued for coastal and island communities from Weipa to Northern Territory/Queensland border.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from the Torres Strait Islands to Weipa, and Northern Territory/Queensland border and Port McArthur.


Brisbane had a strong storm back in November

HIGH WINDS



Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance.. Happy Dance :)


Oooopps.. I mean... sorry to hear that the Centre of the Universe is having adverse weather conditions..
remember what happen the last time i sent ya 3 ft of snow maybe i should sent some more lol
The winds according to the Severe Weather Warning is about 55 knots.
sorry... the wind gusts
Wellington Meteorological Services NZ (south of 25S)

Marine Bulletin (1800z 10JAN)
============================
DEPRESSION (Extratropical) [994HPA] NEAR 24.0S 173.0W SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Wellington Meteorological Services NZ (south of 25S)

Marine Bulletin (1800z 10JAN)
============================
DEPRESSION (Extratropical) [994HPA] NEAR 24.0S 173.0W SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.


How is it that you always know when something forms out there? lol
G'nite, everyone. . . .

Hey Astro, I've modified your table to reflect a more tropical viewpoint . . . it's MUCH shorter . . .
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Unbearably hot: > 49C (> 120F)
Extremely hot: 41C - 48C (106F - 118F)
Very hot: 37C - 40C (99F - 104F)
Hot: 32C - 36C (90F - 97F)
Moderately hot: 29C - 31C (84F - 88F)
Normal: 27C - 28C (81F - 82F)
Temperate: 23C - 26C (73F - 79F)
COLD: anything below 22C (72F)


And TampaS, re post 149 on the SSTs - SSTs in the low 70s in the Bahamas are not unusual. In fact, it's one of our big tourist attractions.
Quoting futuremet:
Brief Analysis


Dual mid level sub-synoptic cyclones along a quasi-baroclinic zone are producing copious dynamic precip values over much of the upper southeastern region. Both systems will continue to move eastward, and will interact with one another as they move. There is sufficient thermal energy at the southern side of the stationary front for minimal convective rain over eastern Louisiana and western Alabama. Both systems should exit the U.S. about 48 hours from now.....beyond that...we should see a very quiet week. =]!



I reckon you should recheck some of the models.

There's going to be another advisory level snowfall across a good portion of the Northeast and perhaps the northern Mid-Atlantic starting late Friday night into Saturday as a hybrid clipper system moves across the eastern half of the country. This will be followed by a rather significant lake-effect snow event. Also, along the trailing cold front there could be another convective outbreak from SE Texas and along the Gulf Coast to southern Alabama.



-------


I didn't say it would be a severe outbreak, I simply said a convective outbreak. In other words, sub-severe.

I think that verified pretty well.
Quoting sullivanweather:


I reckon you should recheck some of the models.

There's going to be another advisory level snowfall across a good portion of the Northeast and perhaps the northern Mid-Atlantic starting late Friday night into Saturday as a hybrid clipper system moves across the eastern half of the country. This will be followed by a rather significant lake-effect snow event. Also, along the trailing cold front there could be another convective outbreak from SE Texas and along the Gulf Coast to southern Alabama.



-------


I didn't say it would be a severe outbreak, I simply said a convective outbreak. In other words, sub-severe.

I think that verified pretty well.


LOL, im sick of arguing about this

Drak was right...it was all a misunderstanding.
182. beell
From a post by tornadofan:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2009

ALC025-129-102315-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090110T2315Z/
WASHINGTON AL-CLARKE AL-
509 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 509 PM CST.... THIS TORNADO WAS NEAR MCINTOSH...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHATOM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. REPORTS OF TORNADO
DAMAGE ARE NOW BEING REPORTED BY MCINTOSH POLICE DEPARTMENT.
Quoting futuremet:


LOL, im sick of arguing about this

Drak was right...it was all a misunderstanding.


LOL

It's cool.

I just felt like serving crow for dinner...haha =)
I figured since I was eating some in my blog I might as well share it with others...haha
Quoting sullivanweather:


LOL

It's cool.

I just felt like serving crow for dinner...haha =)


And apparently a tornado touched down....according to the post by Tornadofan. Lol

I guess that is proof that there are sometimes exceptions.
186. beell
Oh heck! I gotta go to your blog sully!
LOL
187. beell
Just don't forget the prefrontal enviroment futuremet-the discreet as they say.
In the mesoscale.
Futuremet Productions 2.0

Ignore my bad accent lol
I am Haitian.

Normal Quality


High Quality



High Definition

Can't ever sleep on thunderstorms...

Any storm is always capable of producing something. Even if conditions don't look ripe for anything.

I remember a few years ago what looked like a simple 25DBZ shower produced a tornado in Kentucky...
Quoting sullivanweather:
Can't ever sleep on thunderstorms...

Any storm is always capable of producing something. Even if conditions don't look ripe for anything.

I remember a few years ago what looked like a simple 25DBZ shower produced a tornado in Kentucky...


yea, mesoscale events are true forecast busters lol

No one was expecting a Tornado today.
191. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2009

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WITH THESE THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS...WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW/LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AN
OVERLY ORGANIZED/APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED.
BUT...GIVEN STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND AT LEAST WEAK
BUOYANCY...A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A TORNADO WILL EXIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN LA AND MS INTO SOUTHERN AL/PERHAPS WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE.


Link
Evening folks,
Big, bright moon tonight.

Re: Temperature comfort levels.
Anything above body temperature will stress you physically. (You have no way of throwing off heat if the air is warmer than your are) Even near body temp if it is humid, will make it difficult for the body to maintain normal body temp.
I would imagine the ability of the body to keep warm would depend on body mass etc, so I have no idea at what air temp the body would have problems - any of you cold weather folks know?
Comfort zone of course are individual.
fut,

The accent isn't so bad, though you still need further practice to smooth it out a bit more. You need to work on a smoother overall delivery, though. Right now your speech is choppy, so it doesn't sound natural. That involves preparing your commentary in writing (at least for a while, anyway) and practicing natural speech blocks - basically some rehearsal.
178. futuremet 11:40 PM GMT on January 10, 2009
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Wellington Meteorological Services NZ (south of 25S)

Marine Bulletin (1800z 10JAN)
============================
DEPRESSION (Extratropical) [994HPA] NEAR 24.0S 173.0W SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.


How is it that you always know when something forms out there? lol

---
LOL I look closely at CMC models and monitor the RSMC Nadi surface maps =P
Accent-wise, the biggest problem I note is with the use of the t/d sounds for th (as in t'ink for think).

I'd suggest [eventually, if not right away] having a low-definition alternative for your presentations. At least for the foreseeable future, this means wider audience.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Accent-wise, the biggest problem I note is with the use of the t/d sounds for th (as in t'ink for think).

I'd suggest [eventually, if not right away] having a low-definition alternative for your presentations. At least for the foreseeable future, this means wider audience.


So, would it help If am relaxed?

I was quite nervous

wait....more like super nervous lol
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dongo (985 hPa) located at 20.7S 68.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
Within the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
========================
70 NM in from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern and southeastern quadrant and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 23.3S 69.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.9S 70.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 31.8S 72.6E - 40 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 34.6S 77.5E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

Additional Information
=======================
Overall pattern has improved during the whole night with an ongoing curved band pattern. Latest analysis in enhanced infrared radar imagery shows convection wrap of .90 on LOG 10 Spiral that yield to a Dvorak Intensity of 3.5. Analysis from PGTW and KNES confirms this intensity. No major changes has come from the 1200z run. Available dynamical guidance are in good agreement showing only some slight dispersion for the speed. Present forecast is based on general but closer to the latest ECMWF track. It is just slightly eastward of the previous forecast track.

..
System is still tracking south-southeastwards under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge located to the northeast of the system. It should remain under this steering flow within the next days. Environmental conditions are still favorable for intensification but are still forecasted to deteriorate sunday night with a stronger northwesterly sheat and progressively cooler sea surface temperatures. DONGO has still a window of 18 to 24 hours to reach its maximum intensity strength.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
9:50 AM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 9:00 am AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [993 hPa] located at 16.2S 139.4E or 60 kms north-northeast of Mornington Island and 275 kms west-southwest of Pormpuraaw. has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The Cyclone has moved southeast at 8 knots during the past 5 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving eastwards over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and up to 150 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Aurukun and the NT/QLD border during the next 24 hours.

Coastal residents between Aurukun and the NT/QLD border are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding is expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Aurukun to
the NT/QLD Border.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Weipa to Aurukun.

The Cyclone Watch between the Torres Strait Islands and Weipa, and between the NT/QLD Border and Port McArthur has been CANCELLED.
The FULL Moon is brilliant tonight in SW Florida. LowerCal's Blog explains why. Gulf waters Temp 66 degrees
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TC Technical Bulletin for Charlotte
0000z UTC January 11 2009
================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.3S 140.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.6S 141.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 16.9S 143.1E - 20 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: xxxxx xxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxx

REMARKS:
Based on PT, DT not possible
199. surfmom 1:57 AM GMT on January 11, 2009

The FULL Moon is brilliant tonight in SW Florida. LowerCal's Blog explains why. Gulf waters Temp 66 degrees


It is darn cloudy here, LOL but I saw how huge it looked from photos.

Not bad Futuremet, but you do need to work on the fluidity of you speech. It needs to blend together to sound more natural.
Quoting Drakoen:
Not bad Futuremet, but you do need to work on the fluidity of you speech. It needs to blend together to sound more natural.


Thanks Drak

Believe it or not, I sounded worst a couple of days ago lol

I will try to make my first real video on Monday. It will be a video tutorial about "The Anatomy Of Supercellular Thunderstorms"

Hopefully, I will be much better by then....I should be..
Quoting futuremet:


Thanks Drak

Believe it or not, I sounded worst a couple of days ago lol

I will try to make my first real video on Monday. It will be a video tutorial about "The Anatomy Of Supercellular Thunderstorms"

Hopefully, I will be much better by then....I should be..


I didn't know there was a worse than that... lol
Quoting Drakoen:


I didn't know there was a worse than that... lol


I retried 11 times to make the video like this. lol
Quoting futuremet:


I retried 11 times to make the video like this. lol


You'll need the practice for when you need to say words like: isodrosotherm, isohypse, geostrophic, ageostrophic, etc...

You'll need the practice for when you need to say words like: isodrosotherm, isohypse, geostrophic, ageostrophic, etc...

yes....I had to slow down when I had to say "Atmospheric dynamics"
Cyclone Charlotte forms off north Queensland coast
Article from: AAP



January 11, 2009 12:55pm

RESIDENTS in far north Queensland have been put on alert after a cyclone formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria early today.

The Bureau of Meteorology has advised that the cyclone, which has been named Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, was located about 60km north northeast of Mornington Island and 275km west southwest of Pormpuraaw at 9am (AEST).

Forecasters said Charlotte was currently a Category 1 cyclone, meaning wind gusts of up to 95km/h, and was moving east.

A cyclone warning was issued for coastal communities between Aurukun in Cape York and the Northern Territory/Queensland border.

65mph not far from TC
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
1:50 PM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 1:00 pm AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [990 hPa] located at 16.0S 139.7E or 95 kms northeast of Mornington Island and 205 kms northwest of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The Cyclone has moved southeast at 8 knots during the past 6 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east-southeastwards over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and up to 150 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Aurukun and Mornington Island during the next 12 hours.

Coastal residents between Aurukun and Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding is expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Also, gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf are already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Aurukun to the Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Weipa to Aurukun.

The Cyclone Warning between the Queensland/Northern Territory border and Mornington Island has been CANCELLED.
Charlotte Intensity Forecast
===============================

0hr 16.0S 139.7E - Category 1
6hr 16.0S 140.2E - Category 1
12hr 16.1S 140.8E - Category 2
24hr 16.5S 142.2E - Category 1
48hr 17.3S 144.7E - Tropical Low


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THIRTEEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICAL DONGO (05-20082009)
10:00 AM Reunion January 11 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dongo (985 hPa) located at 21.8S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
========================
70 NM in from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 24.7S 70.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 27.2S 71.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 31.9S 73.6E - 40 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 36.2S 80.5E - EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

Additional Information
=======================
Stronger winds extend far from the center in the southeastern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Wind extension has been measured thanks to recent satellite data. DONGO keeps on tracking southward. It is expected to stay on this track for the next few days. Environmental start to be less favorable for further intensification.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ELEVEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
4:50 PM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 4:00 pm AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [990 hPa] located at 16.2S 139.8E or 85 kms northeast of Mornington Island and 180 kms northwest of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The Cyclone has moved southeast at 8 knots during the past 6 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east-southeastwards over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the north of the system, and up to 150 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect coastal areas between Aurukun and Mornington Island during the next 12 hours.

Coastal residents between Aurukun and Mornington Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding is expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Also, gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf are already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape Keer Weer to the Mornington Island.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Aurukun to Cape Keer Weer.

The Cyclone Watch between Aurukun to Weipa has been CANCELLED.

Additional Information
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 140.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.7S 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.4S 143.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 17.8S 141.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
This system is under the influence of strong upper level divergence associated with an upper trough over southeast Australia. Deepening is occurring curved band wrap 0.7 giving DT of 3.0. PAT suggests T3.5 but given constraints have stayed with T3.0. Conditions are favourable for further developments until landfall.
First warning from JTWC on TC 07P (Charlotte)

35 kts 996 MB
Arctic Express on the Way Flat Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Soak up your last two days of mid 70's, we're going into the freezer. A series of cold fronts will usher in our first arctic air mass of the season beginning Monday. Looks like we won't escape wearing booties this winter. Small N swell has been pushed back to Monday then a bigger NNW for Tuesday

Morning....hummmmm, booties -- might be too cold for me
Woah, what happened to the Panthers last night?

Morning Cot -- sorry I don't know -- I watch weather -- not sports LOL
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mornington West to Cape Keerweer
are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting
the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:57pm on Sunday the 11th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.

At 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST] TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE was estimated to be 140
kilometres northeast of Mornington Island and 190 kilometres north northwest of
Karumba, moving east at 9 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast
Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York
Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth on Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop about the coast
between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the
coast on Monday morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island
during the next 12 hours.

Coastal residents between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide. The sea is likely to rise well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to
the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be
prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to
do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf are already
producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over western Cape
York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these
damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte at 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 140.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

People between Cape Keer Weer and Aurukun should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Sunday 11 January [10:30 pm CST
Sunday 11 January].

Quoting Cotillion:
Woah, what happened to the Panthers last night?


Congrats on the Ravens -
The Panthers game was a nightmare, an embarassment - Yikes!
Cardinals played well - Panthers were a mess
Have no idea what happened. Panthers over confident - Birthday party the night before????
Cardinals wanted it more
I am hoping the Ravens can pull it off.
Good morning folks,
Been unseasonably warm in Charleston (70F yesterday). First cold front will get us back to our normal January (high 50'sF). End of next week is when we will be hit with unseasonally cold weather (low 40's). My little heater gets the room up to 60's F when temps in 40's - will be interesting to see what it gets down to at night with lows in the 20's F. I think I will be getting out the long johns and extra quilts.
221. unf97
Good morning to everyone here on the WU blog. It has been quite awhile since I checked in here. Happy New Year to everyone out there and my wishes to all for a healthy and prosperous 2009. It will be interesting to see how the Atlantic basin will behave when hurricane season commences in June. Meanwhile, we have been enjoying quite an unseasonable warm spell since mid-December here in NE FL. The normal high in Jax this time of year is 64 degrees and the normal low is 42. Temperatures have been averaging 10-15 degrees above normal during this period. We haven't had a freeze officially recorded at Jax since Dec. 13. A very significant pattern change over North America is finally beginning to evolve, and old man winter will be back in full force, especially late this week and into next weekend. I just checked the lastest GFS model runs and the upper level trough really deepens sharply across the Eastern ConUS. A huge arctic High Pressure near 1060 plunges southward out of the Western Canadian provinces into the Northern Plains by Thursday. The High center will then drop into the SE US region Friday-Saturday period. This will guarantee temps averaging as much as 15-20 below average in many areas, especially late this week. This will likely be the coldest air mass of the season for most in the Eastern ConUS if the latest runs verify. Here in Jax, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see minimum temps in mid 20s by Saturday morning (1/17/09), or possibly colder.
Good morning everyone- the moon was so bright out here in the middle of the Atlantic last night, there was no need for artificial light- there were some low lying clouds and it really lit them up- was quite beautiful. This morning it is now 89F with a heat index of 90; winds only abt 3mph from the SSW, pressure steady 30.12 and everyone, especially the thousands of tourists,will be headed for the sea to soak all day when not working on broiling their skin.

Re 192 KEH continuing the temperature and the body and also comfort zones topic. I take your well made point KEH- but would like to back up - First the scientists that began to study these things were largely British and French ( and other Euros) during the heyday of Imperialism when they had colonies all over the world. they took it for granted that their "world", basically England, but the temperate zones as they called them, were the optimum temperatures. They used to say the tropics were the "white man's grave" not because of disease per se, tho that too, but because they couldn't deal with the heat and work the hard physical labour demended at the time- over time those who stayed on adjusted- as in parts of India, Australia, the Caribbean, Africa etc. They also over centuries (they balked at this for a long, long time- for example thought banas were only good for slaves, couldn't abide curry etc.) changed their diets to include more of the foods of indigenous peoples. They explored the coldest parts of the globe last- and noted the ability of the Inuit and other peoples to thrive in what was totally inhospitable climate to them.
Many moons later scientists have studied the effects of temperature and climate on the body and did all kinds of experiments on aboriginies, Sherpas, Incas and the Inuit. They found that there were actual physical differences between these people and people from temperate climates that allowed them to thrive in what temperate people ( note our vocabulary) "hostile","inhospitable"environements Why mountain climbers or even visitors to Machu Pichu can have lung and heart failure in the Andes, (or even in Mexico city as I found out); and there were body changes in the Inuit re cold and Aborigines for hot. So it is relative- also those Europeans that have lived for generations in the tropics have what we call "hot blood" too and are "comfortable" in this morning's near 90degrees- but are cold in the low 70's, even though their ancestors may have come from Lapland.

What is of concern now tho is the growing heat and humidity and we do not know how long it will take before our internal temperature gauge adjusts. Everyone I know in the Caribbean not only notes the high SST's but how hot this is for January- but fortunately no humidity- summers are getting more difficult, especially because of the proximity to the Equator- you feel the heat and humidity more
I'm sorry I don't know of any scientific studies done recently on this- do you? anyone?

Cimate and diet is another interesting topic.

I also note this am from AP and on MSN there is an article on the growing worries over Yellowstone- wish I knew how to cut and paste for this blog. anyone can help??
Have a good day everyone and keep warm all you Inuits and you too Cotillion!
Oh and thank you futuremet and everyone else for all the very helpful links to sites for studying meteorology.
Hopefully, by hurricane season I will have learned a gereat deal more than now- still will be a very novice novice but will understand a lot more of the techical discussion.
(hopefully- maybe not- but at least know what some terms mean!)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
10:50 PM Australian EST January 11 2009
=========================================

At 10:00 pm AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [987 hPa] located at 15.9S 140.3E or 145 kms northeast of Mornington Island and 185 kms north northwest of Karumba has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The Cyclone has moved east at 8 knots during the past 4 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth on Monday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Monday morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island during the next 12 hours.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide will be generated between Cape Keerweer and the Gilbert River Mouth. The normal tide will be near low at crossing time and water levels are not expected to exceed HAT by any significant amount, however large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf will continue to produce tidal levels above HAT and squally monsoon showers during the next few days. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and tides.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 141.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.1S 143.0E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 17.1S 143.6E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
Deep convection wraps 0.9 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.5. MET is 2.5. PAT is 3.0. PAT used as final T.
RE:222. Bjanmama
Indeed the relationship of food is very interesting. My general recommendation to visitors to Charleston in the summer, is to eat bananas, melons etc. and drink water. I caution that in my experience a headache is often the first sympton of dehydration. This is not something for which I have scientific documentaion, but has always worked for me.
I have no problem believing that people develop an ability to throw off body heat or to hold on to body heat as they adapt to an environment. Perhaps a mechanism to increase body fat content (insulation) for cold climes?? and to hold fluids/electrolytes for hot climes??
It is hard to imagine the europeans in wool, when arriving in Barbadoes - Yikes. It is not surprising to me that the Irish who had been "Barbadosed" did not fair well on plantations.
Quoting Bjanmama:
Oh and thank you futuremet and everyone else for all the very helpful links to sites for studying meteorology.
Hopefully, by hurricane season I will have learned a gereat deal more than now- still will be a very novice novice but will understand a lot more of the techical discussion.
(hopefully- maybe not- but at least know what some terms mean!)


No prob. Just remembered one more (mostly because I was testing links on my webpage): http://www.weatherdictionary.com/

If you see a term you may not know the definition to, just put it in and get a fairly concise definition. Try it...geostrophic, MCS (acronyms too!), isodrosotherm, and NWS abbreviations.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Good morning folks,
Been unseasonably warm in Charleston (70F yesterday). First cold front will get us back to our normal January (high 50'sF). End of next week is when we will be hit with unseasonally cold weather (low 40's). My little heater gets the room up to 60's F when temps in 40's - will be interesting to see what it gets down to at night with lows in the 20's F. I think I will be getting out the long johns and extra quilts.


In SE LA, looks like we might not see 60 degrees for a week or more. Certainly not 70+. Cool!
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOURTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
1:50 AM Australian EST January 12 2009
=========================================

At 1:00 am AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [987 hPa] located at 16.2S 140.9E or 120 kms southwest of Kowanyama and 190 kms east-northeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The Cyclone has moved east at 6 knots during the past 4 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth later this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the coast later this morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island during the next 6 to 12 hours.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide will be generated between Cape Keerweer and the Gilbert River Mouth. The normal tide will be near low at crossing time and water levels are not expected to exceed HAT by any significant amount, however large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf will continue to produce tidal levels above HAT and squally monsoon showers during the next few days. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and tides.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.
Hey folks- know everyone up north is settling down to more football- or getting things done before football-
just noticed on futuremet's greatMetEd site that they have a new module called Climate and Health- focuses on some of the things we've been discussing. Adios
#226- Oh thanks so much, atmoaggie- that is really helpful- you all are so very helpful- its like what a real university is supposed to be like- and most were- some still are- never mind all that- but thanks.

Re225- Hey KEH- I love Charlotte- usually fly through there on my way to Ca. Knew folks in S. Carolina know the Bajan connections-i.e. the English and Irish that left Barbados as the plantations consolidated and there was no more room for the small farmers and indentured servants- we are twinned with Cahleston because it was built largely by Bajans and they colonised N. Carolina as well. as you clearly know.

One of my special memories is when I lived in Jersey and every Easter we'd head for the Fiddler's Convention in Union Grove ( and I've been to many others) and since I had been to university in Ireland and am part Irish was really into the connection between Irish, American and British Caribbean folk music
Here in the land of calypso and reggae we also have a Celtic music festival!

But since off topic- back to climate and diet- sure right about the British, no wonder they died like flies- problem now is that people here are exposed to all kinds of stuff from N. america and have gotten away from the diet that has so many centenarians on the island- but they will be the last- until more people go back to the basic tropical/mediteranean diet that kept peole strong and healthy. Re your comments on the body- remember the Inuits eat all that whale blubber and other fats that would kill the rest of us- and aborigines eat plants that store water and they can conserve water like camels- so their electrrolytes must operate different than people in more temperate climates. Then I started thinking about all the people who live in Death Valley- Inyo could speak to that or even in Central Cal,and other places where the summerAugust-Sept often has a week or so of 120 and at least a month or so of around 100-115 -air con helps- but people were living there (Euro descent) over 200 years ago- so..
With the weather I have been getting lately.. I would agree with this article....

Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years...... more
RE:Bjanmama
Charleston was known as "Little Barbados" in the 1600's - Meals certainly improved with Gullah (West African) and Barbadian influences! (Sorry, Cotillion - folks visit the UK for reasons other than cuisine)

Orcasystems - Why did you leave the front door open - close it already, don't let all tht cold air out.

MODIFIED FOR CLARITY
Wow, Thursday morning will be very, very cold here in S. Ontario. From what I estimate, we'll have wind chills approaching -40 (Celcius or Farenheit). Arrgh, I have to walk!
Post #226

Thanks for that link atmo...

It feels like wintertime on the Southshore today...
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:Bjanmama
Charleston was known as "Little Barbados" in the 1600's - Meals certainly improved with Gullah (West African) and Barbadian influences! (Sorry, Cotillion - folks visit the UK for reasons other than cuisine)

Orcasystems - Why did you leave the front door open - close it already, don't let all tht cold air out.

MODIFIED FOR CLARITY


Actually.. its KOG's fault.. his weather sucks big time... apparently the centre of the universe (Toronto, aka Hell) has finally frozen over :)
RE:235

Keeper can keep it!

Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:235

Keeper can keep it!



We are back to golfing again.. finally
Quoting Orcasystems:
With the weather I have been getting lately.. I would agree with this article....

Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years...... more

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.


Hey.. like Presslord.. I just post em as I sees em.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. its KOG's fault.. his weather sucks big time... apparently the centre of the universe (Toronto, aka Hell) has finally frozen over :)

Please refrain from insulting other people's weather. I live near Toronto and it will be very cold next week (see post 233). You from Vancouver?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

LOL, wut? The Milankovich cycles are expected to bring the Earth into a period of almost zero eccentricity, which would hinder an ice age. However, that's not to say that GW won't by itself trigger an ice age, but that's thousands of years from now.


Ohhh head hurts... to many big words/numbers/graphs.. ouch

Link
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Please refrain from insulting other people's weather. I live near Toronto and it will be very cold next week. You from Vancouver?


GASP no.. Victoria :)

BTW, I wasn't insulting your weather.. I was insulting your city
Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP no.. Victoria :)

Oh, remember when Victoria got 60 cm of snow in one day? LOL.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Oh, remember when Victoria got 60 cm of snow in one day? LOL.


I know.. I was here shovelling it :(
Its finally gone and the flowers are starting to bloom again.

Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP no.. Victoria :)

BTW, I wasn't insulting your weather.. I was insulting your city

Hmm...no wonder they say that "Everybody hates Toronto". Actually I don't live in the city itself, but near it.
BTW, for those people who have nothing to do today.. I need some help if your bored...

Now that the ice and snow finally melted (almost) I have to go INTO the Koi pond and clean up.. its about 3 feet deep... its going to be a tad on the cold side.. and I don't have hip waders (yet, may go buy some now).. anyone want to take my place?



It looks a lot colder now, then it does in this picture.
247. eddye
will someone tell me how cold it will get in south fl i saw the gfs haas upper 30
Re KEH- I know, that's what I was talking about. During the English civil Wars and really earlier with the consolidation of the plantation system, some of the biggest planters in Barbados and their slaves left- some went to Jamaica, some helped build St. Kitts and a lot went to Carolina. The architecture between Bridgetown, Speightstown ( mostly destroyed by the modern developers- but we're trying to presrve some) and Charleston's is the same; the original families largely came from Barbados. and there is a link between Gullah and the languages the Africans from the West Indies spoke, of course- and some of them settled in the islands where Gullah is spoken- The linguists have been studying Gullah and west Indian /creole- lots of scholarly and archeological work is still going on re the connection between Barbados especially and the Carolinas. That's why Barbados is "twinned" with Charleston, it's our sister city. May I ask How do you know so much about this?? Most americans, even southerners don't??

re English food- when I was studying across the pond many many years ago- and nearly dying from eating boiled to death turnips and parsnips and mutton and brussel sprouts-ugh! our only salvation was Indian food- for a lot of British people too! thank god for Indian immigration to Britain ( I know some folks wouldn't agree- but cusine-wise- it has been a salvation) except for fish& chips- how I miss fish& chips wrapped up in newspaper after a long night at the pub especially in freezing weather. and then- to get oranges- that was a real treat- the thing I remember the most was how bad the teeth of the english and the Irish were- and diet was the key thing

But Cotillion have been back and things much improved thanks to all the immigration of us folks from hot countries-improved your diet and people now know how to steam vegetables properly!
RE:248. Bjanmama
I would guess that most Charlestonians (at least those who have been here awhile) are aware of our British/West African/Caribbean influence. Gullah is still spoken here on our Sea Islands, and to a lesser extent on the Charleston Peninsula. Didn't mean to 'unrable at de mout' :)



KEH- No Wunnah, no rable, talk yuh talk, wunnah! Reminds me of one of the West Indian sayings- not at all what you were saying please understand- just always found it so funny- "What sweet in goat mout,does sour in'e
bambam!" and "Crapaud smoke yuh pipe". Do you have similar sayings??"-

Do South Carolinians learn about this historical connection in school? Or how important the ties between the West Indies and the 13 colonies were during the Revolution, that the first "country" to recognise the new US was a West Indian island and that we continued to trade with the 13 colonies, not only Mass. but especially Charleston despite the mighty British navy and the West Indies was also thinking very seriously of folowing in the US steps and declaring a revolution?? Just curious? Better get back to topic after this or I'll get in trouble!
Re 246- Mr. Orca, your backyard is a little paradise, I wouldn't mind being there and cleaning your koi pond.
Question, our koi of course live year round here, but in the North- epecially with the temperatures some states have been having, what do people do?
In your case do they live year round in the pond because you live in beautiful Victoria with its normally much much milder weather than say- Manitoba-??
then I was thinking- parts of Japan get snow and the koi must live in the ponds there over the winter??? Thanks
RE 250 - Indeed there are many sayings particularly on the islands here. - Schools do teach the basics of the West Indies-Charleston connection.
To give this a weather twist - AS I understand it - it was the Burmuda High that assisted this progression of Barbados to the Charles Town Port. Sailing vessels ran from England to Azores to Barbadoes to Charleston then up the east coast and finally around the top of the Burmuda High eventually to back to England. Again weather and climate matter.
000
FXUS62 KCHS 111732
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009
.......
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ARCTIC COLD IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
KEH- clever- how true- because of the anutical/climatic features ( among others) Barbados was a key port in the triangular trade and afterwards the first major port after the Azores and served as an entrepot between Europe, south america, Central america and the Southern US- as well as Atlantic states and Canada- and of course, the Windward Islands. The steering currents and trades and its proximity in the Atlantic made it an ideal port.
But the Atlantic side was too rough for creating a port- hence sailing around the southern point to swampy Bridgetown, which had an inlet,no not a really safe port from the weather like English Harbour in Antigua- but a place where ships could be caulked, even ironworks to do all the major repairs and to keep ships relatively safe during bad weather.
Afternoon, all.

Bjan, KEH, ur conversation about the WI/Carolina connection has been interesting reading. It also reminds me of the connection between the Bahamas and the Carolinas - quite a few of the Carolina Loyalists ended up in the Bahamas, e.g. - and of the weather patterns that influenced the connection. I know a lot of the white Bahamians who are now considered "high class" (i. e. they have relatively old money lol) made that money by running rum to the Carolinas (though Wilmington / Great Banks was a more likely area for them) and for a very small number, by running the blockade during the Civil War. The weather definitely played a major role in keeping these "business" ventures going.
And of course, Bjan, the very qualities that made Barbados a #1 stop ensured that Nassau would continue to be a sleepy backwater . . . LOL
"What sweet in goat mout,does sour in'e
bambam!"


We have this in the Bahamas as "What swee your mouth pepper your tail."

I'm convinced some of these sayings came across the waters with our W African ancestors.
256. BahaHurican -
In many ways Carolinam, West Indies and Bahama were all part of the same economic system. (particularly in the 1600's - 1700's)
Would Roanoke (The Lost Colony) have faired better if they had these beneficial nautical winds a bit more accessible. - Would be interesting to know how the Burmuda High was set up at the time.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
256. BahaHurican -
In many ways Carolinam, West Indies and Bahama were all part of the same economic system. was an extension of the West Indies and Bahama economic systems. (particularly in the 1600's - 1700's)
Would Roanoke (The Lost Colony) have faired better if they had these beneficial nautical winds a bit more accessible. - Would be interesting to know how the Burmuda High was set up at the time.
Isn't the current commonly accepted theory on Roanoke that a hurricane wiped the island out? I'm thinking abou the effects of recent 'canes on the OBX and feeling that would make a lot of sense . . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't the current commonly accepted theory on Roanoke that a hurricane wiped the island out? I'm thinking abou the effects of recent 'canes on the OBX and feeling that would make a lot of sense . . .

Ahh... another way that weather influenced the early european settlements.
I put together a 90 page list of maritime actions along Florida's coast during the Civil War. The Bahama's were influencial here from the beginning and were instrumental during the war for the south. They were the first wreckers here and dominated the business for years. The Pent family is Miami's oldest and they came from the Bahama's,and both Brickell and Peacock the trading post operators at Miami River were English. The Brits did more here in twenty years than the Spanish in several hundred.
KEH....I have always thought of Charleston as the northernmost Caribbean city...
Quoting indianrivguy:
I put together a 90 page list of maritime actions along Florida's coast during the Civil War. The Bahamas were influencial here from the beginning and were instrumental during the war for the south. They were the first wreckers here and dominated the business for years. The Pent family is Miami's oldest and they came from the Bahamas,and both Brickell and Peacock the trading post operators at Miami River were English. The Brits did more here in twenty years than the Spanish in several hundred.
I'm not sure how far back Bahamians have been moving to / from Florida, but I do know that a lot of the native Keys residents have roots in the NW Bahamas, and quite a few of the residents in Miami and Palm Beach counties do as well. Then there is the Andros - Seminole Indian connection from the 1820s.

The Spaniards did little to develop the southern parts of FL, from what I can recall. I think they went further north, away from the worst of the swamps (i. e. Everglades). 18th / 19th century Bahamians would have been more logical early settlers because they would have had a few generations to become accustomed to the climate etc. They also would have developed / adopted the shallow sailing vessels that would have made travel along the FL coastal waters more feasible.

Altogether an interesting topic.
Quoting presslord:
KEH....I have always thought of Charleston as the northernmost Caribbean city...

An apt description!
Certainly the northernmost Caribbean Port.
Are you familiar with the 1902 "Charleston West Indies Exposition"? It was quite an event....
RE261. indianrivguy
Perhaps the English concentrated on the founding of settlements (to hold their claim to the land), while the Spanish concentrated on the finding of gold (which never 'panned' out - so to speak)

RE:263. BahaHurican
From the little I have heard (and if they are who, I am thinking of) the Andros - Seminole Indian are an interesting group indeed. Physically intimidating - culturally advanced.
Is this the group that Randy Wayne White writes about in some of his books (great suspense fiction - with a healthy dose of Florida history and ecological concerns)

RE:265. presslord
Do not know much about the Expo. Only that it was meant to re-start the economy - I believe Mark Twain attended, though I could be wrong on that.

re: 256&257: Ah Bha- Did i say that, tch tch- But there were excellent geographic reasons for Barbados' superiority as an entrepot-1) It was settled earlier by the British, the Spanish & Portuguese never settled here; 2) in the 1620's the Dutch were fighting the Portuguese over Pernambuco where they had brought sugar from India and when the Dutch fled Brazil, being the great traders they were they brought sugar to Barbados that launched the Sugar Revolution which spread throughout the Caribbean, began the Afdrican slave trade innearnest, filled the coffers of England to launch the Industrial revolution and everything changed.
But of course every island has a fascinating an important history and things are more inter-linked than lots of people think- and YES, the weather, especially then was a critical factor.

You are right, lol Roanoke was wiped out by a hurricane and look what happened to the first James River settlements because of the weather- allowing the huuricane prone Barbados and St. Kitts to take the honours as the first British established colonies- with Assemblies etc.- Because the hurricanes didn't hit every island every year and the trades were very favourable- look where Barbados is mid-way between Africa and the new world.

- re the sayings, oh so right- the Afro-American culture from the southern US through the Caribbean and down to the Spanish Main, including the Dutch and Frfench territories share a very similar culture- and despite the colonials attempts to wipe out the languages, the intersting thing the linguists have foiund and labouriously documented including grammmar books and dictionaries is if you speak French Creole it is understood in St. Lucia, Grenada Martinique, Trinidad, Haiti- even islands that were taken over by the British.
The B'rer Rabbit stories are analogous to our 'nancy stories in the West Indies

Anyway, of course Nassau is and was important in the northern Antilles and especially with those islands and the US
NAM and GFS show an interesting storm system developing off of the SC coastline sometime Tuesday into Wednesday with a lot of QPF associated with the coastal storm as it begins to track NNE or NE. If the storm tends to travel NNE then Cape Cod, MA and Boston, MA will see a lot of snow if the temperatures allow it to occur. Lets ask for a NNE track.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED
WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE WAVE TO THE COAST...WITH THE CANADIAN/ECMWF THE CLOSEST AND
THE GFS/NAM A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED H25 JET TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THAT THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT
TOO FAR EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL KEEP A RAIN
FREE FORECAST GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...THEN INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY COASTAL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...BUT
WILL HOLD POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A MOISTURE STARVED ARCTIC COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH EITHER OF THE COLD FRONTS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

re#261: very interesting Indi- that is so typically British, they alway say they became Imperialists and owned over half the world by "accident". What they did for centuries was have traders stake claims on the coast and then move up river, higher and higher establishing posts- which ultimately would have to be defended to protect "British trade". ( If they dewcideedd it was worth it- as in Africa and Asia)

Do you intend to publish your research, or have you-it is important as another chapter in the founding of our New World- and might the Everglades served as protection from foreign predators- like the Spanish? The Seminole connection is very interesting- before the shameful period- it would be interesting to see what went on between the Brits- in Fla and the Bahamas, and the Seminoles under the noses of the Spanish.

alot of that went on along the Spanish Main as well, while everyone was lying in wait to capture those big fat Spanish galleons loaded with the plunder from Mexico and Peru, the "pirates" were busy establishing their posts along the realtively quiet- climatologically speaking- Spanish Main east of Cartagena with its well guarded ports and fortifications and lack of hurricanes. Weather again.
Quoting Bjanmama:
Re 246- Mr. Orca, your backyard is a little paradise, I wouldn't mind being there and cleaning your koi pond.
Question, our koi of course live year round here, but in the North- epecially with the temperatures some states have been having, what do people do?
In your case do they live year round in the pond because you live in beautiful Victoria with its normally much much milder weather than say- Manitoba-??
then I was thinking- parts of Japan get snow and the koi must live in the ponds there over the winter??? Thanks


Koi go into Hibernation over the winter months, and stop eating. They do require some kind of break in the ice to allow some oxygen to be able to get to the water surface if possible.

Your pond has to be at least three feet deep, so there is no danger of it being frozen solid. The deepest ice I have had was this winter, it was about 6 inches thick.

The reason I lost a few Koi is because I did not have a hole in the ice.. and since the freeze was so quick and unexpected.. I still had plants and vegetation, which ended up under the ice.

When plants rot, they release poisons, which can kill the fish if the water is not getting enough oxygen.

Thats what I have been doing today.. in 3 feet of water.. removing plants and doing a water change to get rid of the poisons.. not fun.

BTW, if your only 5'8".. three feet deep is a very nasty depth...

Enjoyed the discussions today. Will be watching to see what develops off the Carolina Coast. And will be awaiting with trepedation the artic blast predicted for later this week.

Later folks
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Enjoyed the discussions today. Will be watching to see what develops off the Carolina Coast. And will be awaiting with trepedation the artic blast predicted for later this week.

Later folks


Still hoping for snow on the Florida panhandle :)
GO EAGLES! & GO STEELERS! =]

Cloudy and cold here. Good day for a cup of hot coca, It will be a cold week here in New Orleans, except Wednesday when it will be a little warmer in the 60's, then it gets realy cold as another cold front moves in Thursday.

brrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!
re271: Orca: They go into hibernation everywhere or only where the weather changes go below a certain degree? I understand your problem now re the plants and oxygen. 3' deep is for Victoria, or would it have to be much deep for more "hostile climates" like your hated metropolis of Toronto. Given that I am 5'4" I wouldn't have been much help to you today, maybe would have drowned!
What happens east of SC will be key to what happens up here in Eastern MA. If the storm develops further west closer to the SC coast then we will see heavier precipitation and hopefully thats not rain again.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SIXTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE (05U)
7:50 AM Australian EST January 12 2009
=========================================

At 7:00 am AEST, Tropical Cyclone Charlotte, Category One [989 hPa] located at 16.8S 141.4E or 23 kms south-southeast of Gilbert River Mouth and 190 kms north-northwest of Croydon has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The Cyclone has moved east-southeast at 7 knots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE has now crossed the coast near the Gilbert River Mouth, and is expected to continue moving east southeast over land today while weakening.

GALES with DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 110 km/h may be experienced between Kowanyama and Karumba, and to also extend about 120 kilometres inland.

Even though the cyclone has now crossed the coast, strong monsoon winds and damaging waves are still expected to continue producing abnormally high tides later today.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

North of the Cyclone Warning area, a Severe Weather Warning is current for gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf, which will continue to produce abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Karumba to Kowanyama extending to adjacent inland areas.
Quoting Bjanmama:
re271: Orca: They go into hibernation everywhere or only where the weather changes go below a certain degree? I understand your problem now re the plants and oxygen. 3' deep is for Victoria, or would it have to be much deep for more "hostile climates" like your hated metropolis of Toronto. Given that I am 5'4" I wouldn't have been much help to you today, maybe would have drowned!


They say a minimum of 3 feet deep anywhere. Its a general rule, even for Toronto. Drowning is not what I was worried about :)
267. Bjanmama 3:54 PM EST on January 11, 2009

That realtors' saying about the importance of "location location location" was really true for the development of colonies like Barbados and the Bahamas. Barbados' location - due west on the trades, further east than all the other islands - meant it was ideal for development as a trade post. Also, it was a "deep water" port, lacking the reefs and shoals that created problems in other locations. Other considerations, like vulnerability to storms, would have been true for most other nearby locations. In contrast, Nassau was picked by the pirates as a viable post because of ITS location; smack dab in the middle of the main exits from the western Caribbean, it also sported lots of reefs and shallow water that would allow gold-laden galleons to be "wrecked" or boarded, along with confusing islets and inlets where enterprising bandits could hide "in plain sight". After a while, good guys stayed away from here.

And I don't think Barbados has been hit by its fair share of 'canes. Again, location is key, since it is just far enough south to be out of range of the majority of the CV storms. Storms forming in the Caribbean wouldn't have bothered it very often - witness our one genuinely eastbound storm (Lenny) in almost 150 years of recordkeeping. In contrast, while Nassau is relatively well sheltered by comparison with other islands in the chain, the Bahamas as a whole is the "hurricane capital" of the basin - one part or the other of the island chain gets swiped or hit head on every other year or so in active periods.

It's not surprising that for most of its existence Nassau has been mostly a sleepy backwater by comparison with Barbados.
Looks like beautiful weather coming up for my area (West Palm Beach proper) this week. Highs in the 60's Wednesday thru Monday. Lows in the 40's. Earlier, they had forcasted some 30's, but have backed off - for now - on that. Although I am sure the areas around Lake O will dip that low. Possibly some frost watches or warnings.
281. IKE
My coldest night forecasted here in the inland areas of the Florida panhandle....

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 22 to 27.


Montgomery,AL. coldest night is Thursday night.........

Thursday Night
Clear. Lows 18 to 19.
Today in Seoul, the low was around -12*C (10.4*F) with the wind chill around -17.7*C (0.1*F)
#278 Orca- Ok- I'm stupid- really- what were you worried about???
Go Steelers!!! 28-10
#279 Yes, Baha, that is in large measure what I was saying, with a couple of caveats. 1) what has been very interesting to us here in Barbados and the EC, is historically, Barbados suffered a great deal from hurricanes, we have records going back to the 1700's- in fact, you can go to stormcarib.com and they have an excellent archive on Caribbean hurricanes, how often they hit every territory, who is the hurricane capital of the Caribbean etc.

Anyway, we had some of the deadliest hurricanes in history up to the 20th century, in fact, on record, the deadliest hurricane in "history" until the 20th century around 1793- occured in Barbados- I need to go back and check that for you- anyway, what is interesting is that not that we are too far south- but these 'canes head straight for us, then lmost "miraculously" ( I'm being very uncscientific) they either go and hit the windwards, or less often, much later in the season ( obviously) go south. They pass just below us and then become monsters, like Ivan. They are either TD's or TS's and once past us- monsters- I mean we are only miles from the Windwards- there is something( I won't go into the myths) about the various magnetic fields??? the trade winds just change when they see this miniscule 166sq. mile island??, I have never seen a good scientific explanation for why this has occurred in the 20th century and not before?

I really want to understand this phenomenon, obviously, having prepared numerous times for the worst and then being glanced- not that we are not grateful, but we are not in the same quadrant with the same characteristics as Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago.

- Now 2) back to what also interests me re location/geography/ geography- AND climate- the combination of the two was critical for Barbados' position. By the end of the 17th century she was the jewel in the Crown of the British Empire- worth more than all the 13 colonies combined. Why? climate- the major sugar producing area of the world at a time when Europe demanded sugar- while the 13 colonies were struggling to survive the climate- feeling that nature was the enemy- always "conquering" nature- fighting- those "pesky" Indians- and producing lousy tobacco in the south and scrabbling as subsistence famers in the cold Atlantic states- until the yankees discovered trade and changed history- But it was the climate, and the weather that made the difference.

By then the British had made further and further explorations and conquests throughout the globe, other places produced sugar more cheaply- bigger, more humid territories etc. and they changed the rules of the game- Free Trade- same principle as today-( Free Trade for whom??) Anyway, the West Indies were destroyed and became the backwater of the empire with some of the highest disease and health indicators anywhere and rampant povery- until the end of WWII and as you are well aware of a combination of labour union and independence movements culminating in the riots in the 1930's

Sorry to go on with a history lesson you know only too well, and probably many others- but I think more needs to be written in the history books for our children about the role of climate and how it has affected the development of so-called "civilisation"

As an aside ( should try to find your blog-) do you know Gail Saunders? she is one of my best friends?

Obviously, this should have been broken up into 3 or 4 comments- i am sorry- my e-mails are just as bad. will learn, and realise there is too much here for anyone to be interested- having nodded off to sleep long ago.
Some cold weather is coming our way. I hope that storm becomes the beast the models are showing, except the strength is higher and the track is a little further west, not so far west that we end up with rain, but far enough west to give us the heavy snows.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Go Steelers!!! 28-10


im loving it,
I cant stand the Chargers.


By the way TOUCHDOWN!
Evening everyone - even Miami says that we will have highs in the upper 60's for one day!

Yipee!
Steelers go to the AFC Championship game!!!

Heavy rain as Cyclone Charlotte crosses Queensland coast
Article from: AAP



January 12, 2009 09:33am

EMERGENCY services have begun sandbagging homes as Tropical Cyclone Charlotte moves across far north Queensland.

Charlotte made landfall about 4am (AEST) near the mouth of the Gilbert River, 305km north west of Georgetown.

The cyclone, Queensland's first of the season, is expected to continue moving east southeast over land while weakening.

But the Bureau of Meteorology has warned that gales and damaging winds with gusts up to 120km/h may be experienced between Cape Keer-Weer and Burketown and extend about 200km inland.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf country.

Significant rainfall has already been recorded, with 168mm falling at Babinda, 132mm at Mt Sophia and 117mm at Normanton between 9am (AEST) yesterday and 5am today.

The rain saw 25 calls for assistance to the State Emergency Service (SES) overnight, 12 of those for sandbagging jobs around the Cairns and Tablelands areas.



Synoptic Situation: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Charlotte has now crossed the coast and
lies about 70km southeast of Gilbert River Mouth in the Southeastern Gulf of
Carpentaria. The system is expected to continue moving east southeast over land
today while weakening. An active monsoon trough lies over the North Tropical
Coast district near Cairns and is expected to move south into northern part of
the Herbert and Lower Burdekin district later today.

Squally MONSOONAL showers and areas of heavy rain have developed this morning
over the North Tropical Coast & Tablelands, and the Herbert & Lower Burdekin
districts. Rain areas are forecast to move south and develop over the Northern
Goldfields & Upper Flinders district during the afternoon and may cause flash
flooding and stream rises.

Damaging wind gusts of up to 90km/h are likely in southern parts of the warning
area.
BOM
I grew up in New England and we did learn that there was a third part of the trade triangle (otherwise it wasn't a triangle!) However not much more was mentioned about the area. Of course the Revolutionary War as far as our education seemed to go. My college roommate was from Tennessee and assured me that her school made it thru the Civil War - they just never mentioned who won.
Thank you for the long over due history lesson.
Food for the BRAIN - just yummy information - Bjanmama, I love history and I did not ever learn the information & details you posted -- nor did either one of my sons -- I remember the islands being referred to as colonies - endstop. What I did learn came mostly from historical novels and personal reading outside of the US school system.
SW Florida Surfers: Ton of Fronts Week: First front comes through late tonight. N County could have a knee to thigh little swell to start off Monday morning. Flat later Monday as wind goes east. Then Tuesday another front passes bringing 2-3ft cold front surf late in the day. Wednesday sees a cold 1-3ft NNW swell in the water with N and NE winds. By then temps will be really chilly for Florida so get ready for that. Another front to pass on Friday with more surf. Right now it looks like late Tuesday early Wednesday will be the best time to try and catch a wave
Quoting Bjanmama:
#279 Yes, Baha, that is in large measure what I was saying, with a couple of caveats. 1) what has been very interesting to us here in Barbados and the EC, is historically, Barbados suffered a great deal from hurricanes, we have records going back to the 1700's-

As an aside ( should try to find your blog-) do you know Gail Saunders? she is one of my best friends?

Obviously, this should have been broken up into 3 or 4 comments- i am sorry- my e-mails are just as bad. will learn, and realise there is too much here for anyone to be interested- having nodded off to sleep long ago.
Wish I could claim Gail Saunders as a good friend! LOL Yes, I know her, though I'm not sure I can say she has half a clue who I am. She is very highly respected here for her historical knowledge and scholarly acumen, and has been instrumental in preserving and publicising a great deal of our historical heritage as Bahamians and West Indians.

What u say about the value of climate re. cash crops is very true. I'd also add geography in a broader sense in terms of soil. For modern crop growth our soil is adequate, since fertilizers can be brought in; in the 1700s, not so much.

As for the hurricane "near misses", I think we've seen very obvious evidence in this latest active period to support Barbados' placement as fortuitous because of the prevailing steering patterns and typical TC behaviour. By the time the bulk of the storms that are likely to adversely affect Barbados arrive at its longitude, they have already curved northward due to the poleward pull of the Coriolis effect. The stronger the storm, the greater the effect; thus unless there is an abnormally placed Atlantic high, the storm is much more likely to hit the Bahamas or even Bermuda. The weaker storms don't curve as much, but they pass Barbados as Twaves or TS, then strengthen to monsters after entering the Caribbean. The really horrible storm that hit Barbados in 1780, along with much of the Lesser Antilles, was relatively unusual in its track. (It's still the worst hurricane on record for the ATL basin, btw, because of losses on the islands and at sea.) I wonder what the weather pattern was like that year. . . .

It's really interesting to consider how all these factors influenced development in different areas of the New World. . .
Hmmm. All this talk of old hurricanes and ancient weather patterns reminds me I have a little "informal" study of TCs that have affected the Bahamas to finish up . . . when, I don't know. . .
can anyone give me the links to the computer modles
Quoting boatmanoki:
can anyone give me the links to the computer modles


Which kind of computer models? The hurricane computer models, or other types of computer models, such as United States temperatures, severe weather, etc.?
Gotta run, ya'll. It's been fun, but I've got an early start tomorrow. . .

If I get up early enough, I'll have a look in before I head out in the a.m. . . . want to find out how much more rain the QLD area gets from TC Charlotte. . . good thing it didn't get up to TC 2 - higher winds on that already wet area could have led to many more downed trees etc.
the weather modles like the nam //////
Results 1 - 10 of about 1,580,000 for "weather models". (0.15 seconds) Link

Searches related to: weather modelseuropean weather models nws wunderground

Results 1 - 10 of about 12,900,000 for wunderground. (0.06 seconds) Link
the computer modles for the weather patterns like gfs man 12 hrs to 96 hrs loop
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVENTEEN
TROPICAL LOW EX-CHARLOTTE (05U)
10:50 AM Australian EST January 12 2009
=========================================

At 10:00 am AEST, Tropical Low, Ex-Charlotte [991 hPa] located at 17.0S 141.7E or 70 kms southeast of Gilbert River Mouth and 145 kms north-northwest of Croydon has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east-southeast at 6 knots.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE crossed the coast near the Gilbert River Mouth early this morning, and is expected to continue moving east southeast over land today while weakening.

Winds around the centre of the cyclone have now weakened below gale force, so the Tropical Cyclone Warning for this system has been cancelled.

Strong monsoon winds have also eased, although a Severe Weather Warning remains current for abnormally high tides between Torres Strait and Mornington Island.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country and parts of the Cape York Peninsula forecast districts.

ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAS BEEN CANCELLED

no further advices will be issued unless situation changes.
COLD AIR AHEAD!



A weak elongated cold front associated with a 990MB low, is currently moving south, towards the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, frontolysis will occur in the Gulf of Mexico about 24-36 hours from now. The degenerated cold front will kink all the way to the BOC, and will leave the Gulf of Mexico in a relatively baroclinic state. The surface pressure will then decrease, and showers and little thunderstorm activity will then form due to the dynamic forcing from the stationary front. A 1030MB anticyclone is expected to build over eastern Texas about 30 hours from now. The anticyclone will act as a catalyst for cyclogenesis over the GOM, since it will help advect cold air southward to help displace the warm air to the south (look at the illustration below). The developing system will quickly stride towards Florida, and will increase the chance of precipitation by nearly 50% Tuesday. After that, HERE COMES DRAMA lol!


After this systems passes over Florida, A 1035MB high is expected to build over the eastern U.S. about 72 hours from now, and will blow cold air through much of the south. Nevertheless it is not over yet, an enormous 1050MB high will build across the Midwest, and advect bone-chilling air to the south, and temperatures will be in the 30s for much of Florida.

Please sorry for my crude drawing lol


img src="Photobucket" alt="" />



Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - not numbered (Brisbane AOR)
9:00 AM FST January 12 2009
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 13.8S 158.3E is reported as moving east at 13 knots. Position POOR based on infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperatures around 30-31C.

The system lies embedded in an active monsoonal trough, under the 250 HPA subtropical ridge in a low shear environment and good upper diffluence. The system is characterized by pulsing convection at this stage. Active convergence zone to the north maintains west to northwest 20-30 knot winds in the northern semi-circle, slightly displaced from the low level circulation center. The depression is expected to continue moving in a general southeast direction with good chance of development since it remains in a low sheared environment. A high moving into the Tasman Sea in the next 36 to 48 hours provides a moderate southeast surge from the south.

Most global models has not picked up the system but maintains a string of lows along the monsoonal trough.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
304 - Patrap - ROFL
Quoting RTLSNK:
304 - Patrap - ROFL


Yup

NOAA is going to nail this forecast
I have a feeling some type of major cyclone will impact the Eastern Seaboard sometime between now and within the next two weeks. With such extreme temperatures something will give given the large cold snap models have envisioned for the Eastern 2/3 of the US. This will need to be monitored but the most likely time is when the cold air releases. Hopefully for those who want snow it happens to be before this cold air is gone for awhile during anytime which the January thaw comes. However there is no clear evidence of the cold air leaving and models have been inconsistent in determining when this actually happens. I believe this will happen when the cross polar flow from the Alaska region where the cold air is still in control.
Orca,
NO snow for Florida Panhandle. Geez! Snow? here? NO!!! If we get snow, you can bring your shovel and clean up the mess!

Hi everyone. Just popped in to read a bit & saw the "halo-less" Orca wishing Snow on us FL Panhandle folks.... Shame, shame on Orca!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Still hoping for snow on the Florida panhandle :)
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
I have a feeling some type of major cyclone will impact the Eastern Seaboard sometime between now and within the next two weeks. With such extreme temperatures something will give given the large cold snap models have envisioned for the Eastern 2/3 of the US. This will need to be monitored but the most likely time is when the cold air releases. Hopefully for those who want snow it happens to be before this cold air is gone for awhile during anytime which the January thaw comes. However there is no clear evidence of the cold air leaving and models have been inconsistent in determining when this actually happens. I believe this will happen when the cross polar flow from the Alaska region where the cold air is still in control.


Actually models are showing that a major NorEaster with a very deep low moving up the Eastern seaboard in about 8-10 days. Have to see if it pans out.....but, yes look out.
Cyclone Charlotte downgraded to a low
Article from: AAP

January 12, 2009 01:46pm

TROPICAL Cyclone Charlotte has been downgraded to a tropical low as it loses intensity over Queensland's Gulf Country.

Queensland's first cyclone of the season made land about 4am (AEST) today near the mouth of the Gilbert River, 305km north-west of Georgetown.

It weakened to a tropical low about 10am (AEST) but was continuing to bring heavy rain and winds to parts of north Queensland.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Ben Annells said heavy falls of between 100mm to 200mm had fallen in the Gulf Country and north tropical coast.

Mr Ansell said ex tropical cyclone Charlotte was expected to weaken while it moved south-east, and then south-west, over the southern Cape York area.

Meanwhile, a monsoon trough is responsible for falls of between 200mm to 400mm around Cairns early on Monday.

Around 100 homes in Cairns and Port Douglas were flooded and scores of roads closed due to heavy rain.

Cairns Mayor Val Schier said there did not appear to be much damage, although volunteers were busy sandbagging ahead of a possible second deluge on Tuesday.

Cairns experienced a 2.6m king tide about 10.20am (AEST).

A 2.3m tide is expected at 10pm (AEST) and another 3m tide on Tuesday morning.

"I just looked outside my window and there was a person actually rowing a boat up the street immediately outside the council chambers," Ms Schier said.

"So the king tide that came in this morning coupled with torrential rain has made for huge flooding."

She said emergency services were watching the weather to gauge when floodwaters were likely to recede.

Tuesday's king tide could bring more flooding, she said.

Ms Schier asked residents not to drive through floodwaters, which could trap motorists, or push water into homes.

Yorkeys Knob resident Simone Roseler said flooding was widespread across the city, while her suburb, about 15km north of Cairns' CBD, was cut off by water.

"This morning our street was like one big, flowing river and we were scared our car was going to float away," Ms Roseler said.

"And the cane fields look like lakes."

Heavy rain was expected to move south from Cairns to Townsville in the next few days.
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link
Quoting Patrap:
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link


Wow
I'm sorry, but the storm early this week is really getting better and better and only hope tomorrow's model runs say a big huge nor'easter sitting off the NC coastline at 990mb tracking NE ward slowly but surely and we see rapid deepening of the storm as it tracks east of my latitude.

Again its still speculation until its snowing hard and blowing hard.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
I'm sorry, but the storm early this week is really getting better and better and only hope tomorrow's model runs say a big huge nor'easter sitting off the NC coastline at 990mb tracking NE ward slowly but surely and we see rapid deepening of the storm as it tracks east of my latitude.

Again its still speculation until its snowing hard and blowing hard.


I want it to be 990mb off of Florida tracking between nne and ne. That way NC gets a big snow too.
Tha
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I want it to be 990mb off of Florida tracking between nne and ne. That way NC gets a big snow too.


That would sound more like the Superstorm of 1993 and I would probably end up with a lot of rain instead as the trough axis would be further west. I am starting to see the explosive deepening starting to occur earlier with the models for this storm, but it needs to occur sooner and a lot faster.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Tha

That would sound more like the Superstorm of 1993 and I would probably end up with a lot of rain instead as the trough axis would be further west. I am starting to see the explosive deepening starting to occur earlier with the models for this storm, but it needs to occur sooner and a lot faster.


It doesnt have to be that far inland. We've had a couple of storms do just what I've said. With alot of energy already offshore, offshore is where it would stay.
Well if its 990mb in Florida then what will it be like when it comes up here?

NNE from Florida would be a better track from that far south then a NE track as that would be too far southeast of my region for snows.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Well if its 990mb in Florida then what will it be like when it comes up here?<BR>
NNE from Florida would be a better track from that far south then a NE track as that would be too far southeast of my region for snows.


One hell of a storm. Probably my dream storm.
South fl. update, There is a large halo around the moon tonight. I know that means a change in the weather usually in the next 24 to 72 hrs. It usually means a little more significant weather change this far south as my memory serves. One of the last times I saw this occur was just before Wilma decided to pay a visit.All I am saying is this system that is approaching my be very energetic.


The Storm of the Century, also known as the ’93 Superstorm, No-Name Hurricane, the White Hurricane, or the (Great) Blizzard of 1993, was a large cyclonic storm that occurred on March 12–March 15, 1993, on the East Coast of North America. It is unique for its intensity, massive size and wide-reaching effect. At its height the storm stretched from Canada to Central America, but its main impact was on the Eastern United States and Cuba. Areas as far south as central Alabama and Georgia received 6 to 8 inches (20 cm) of snow and areas such as Birmingham, Alabama, received up to 12 inches (30 cm) with isolated reports of 16 inches (41 cm). Even the Florida Panhandle reported up to 2 inches (5.1 cm), with hurricane-force wind gusts and record low barometric pressures. Between Florida and Cuba, hurricane-force winds produced extreme storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico, which along with scattered tornadoes killed dozens of people.
Now I don't think this storm will even come that close, but the models do deepen this storm down to 952mb over the Labador region of Canada. I want to see what the 12z model consensus is before even getting much too excited for another bust of a storm which I don't want to happen again. Again a stronger storm, a colder air solution.
Click pic to set in motion loop......
Tampa I have my thoughts in my blog, but a more in depth analysis will be made after the 12z model runs. I am getting excited, but I hope I don't set myself up for disappointment.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-F
18:00 PM FST January 12 2009
==================================

At 09:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Five-F (1000 hPa) located at 14.6S 160.6E ia reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position POOR based on infrared imagery with animation and periphery surface observations. Sea surface temperatures around 30-31C.

The system lies embedded in an active monsoonal trough, under the 250 HPA subtropical ridge in a weak shear environment and good upper diffluence. The system is characterized by pulsating convection at this stage with no persistent convection. Active convergence zone to the north maintains west to northwest 25 to 30 knot winds in the northern semi-circle, slighly displaced from the low level circulation center. The depression is expected to continue moving in a general southeast direction. Development may be inhibited by entrainment of dry air from the south in the short term but this scenario may change as the depression remains in a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. A high moving into the Tasman Sea in the next 36 to 48 hours provides a moderate southeast surge from the south. Beyond 48 hours, an upper trough moving in from the southwest may provide and opportunity for rapid or explosive development when the system reaches southwest of Fiji.

Most global models has not picked up the system but maintain a string of weak lows along the monsoonal trough.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
Highlight from the TD from Nadi

Beyond 48 hours, an upper trough moving in from the southwest may provide and opportunity for rapid or explosive development when the system reaches southwest of Fiji.
saw that moon Halo last night, still quiet in SWFL 66 degrees, no cold front yet......but I'm sure El Norte will be knocking on my door.

Good Monday Morning.......
Surfmom, I think Moon is just still sleepy. Feels like a halo around my eyes this morning, too.
Aqua - you might need to put a blankie on your baby sprouts & starts !!!! Maybe this front will fizzle out......
Nothing in the ground yet, surfmom. will carry the tray in and out- and TangoCat sits nearby, babysitting.
LOL TangoCat -- isn't fun to see how our critters know when something is special to us.... but ahhh will she nibble the greenery???
Good Morning, Ladies.
A wonderful Dawn here this Day.
Was 70F when I got out of bed. I thought I was going to freeze !!
Thanks to the Coffee, I will probably survive this .......
Break out the woolies FL residents!


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
720 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

...STREAK OF WARM WEATHER COMING TO AN END...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE U.S. IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONCE AGAIN WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE OVERALL RIDGING THAT WE
HAVE SEE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LAST FOUR WEEKS WHICH HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY
THREE OR FOUR DAYS.

THIS SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BRING OUR STREAK OF
RATHER WARM WEATHER TO AN END AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THESE FRONTS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
NIGHT AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE
RECORD COLD LEVELS FROM SOME WINTERS IN THE PAST.

THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
MONDAY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MONDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA EASTWARD THROUGH
LAKELAND AND WINTER HAVEN.

A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING TUESDAY AND
THEN BE REINFORCED BY A THIRD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.
BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SINCE EARLY
DECEMBER WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN SOME SPOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO PROTECT VEGETATION AND PETS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MAY SEVERELY DAMAGE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS. IN ADDITION...IF YOU PLAN
ON BEING OUTDOORS LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...BE SURE
TO BUNDLE UP AND DRESS IN LAYERS. IF YOU PLAN ON USING SPACE
HEATERS PLEASE REMEMBER THEY CAN BE A FIRE HAZARD...AND YOU SHOULD
KEEP LINENS...BLANKETS...CURTAINS...AND OTHER FLAMMABLES AWAY FROM
THE HEATER AT ALL TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE OR YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS UPCOMING COLD SPELL.
......oh, and Good Morning to the Gentlemen, and other scoundrels as well.
Good morning Pottery.
After the above normal temps in Florida the past month...we're all going to feel very cold soon too.
Morning - coffee hasn't kicked in yet. And I think it's cold outside.
Oh...does anyone know anything about pruning crape murtles? I have one and I've read about a zillion ways to do it but my neighbor insists i hack the whole top off...

Any clues?
It depends on how you want to shape the plant Mel.
Is it a free-standing specimen or is it in a planter bed or hedge?
Floods in Fiji kill 8; thousands seek shelter

Pacific island nation declares state of emergency in hard- hit resort area


SUVA, Fiji - Authorities rushed on Monday to deliver clean drinking water and other supplies to thousands of villagers who fled flooding from tropical storms that have killed at least eight people on this Pacific island nation.

The government declared a state of emergency in the hardest-hit western districts of the main island of Veti Levu, where dozens of international resorts are located. There have been no reports of tourists in trouble in that area.

The airport in Nadi, the island's main link to the outside, remained opened, but the city was flooded and some tourists were being turned back to their points of origin.

Floodwaters were slowly subsiding Monday in some of the villages worst hit, the government said, but forecasters predicted more heavy rain later this week.

"There's another depression heading toward Fiji within the next two days and that will bring an additional threat," Aisea Qumihajelo, the acting chief of disaster management, told The Associated Press on Monday.

Crops washed out
Four days of torrential rains have flooded the towns of Nadi, Ba, Sigatoka and Labasa and many rural villages on Veti Levu, he said. Sugar cane crops have been washed out, roads severed and bridges submerged by surging floodwaters.

Authorities said six people have drowned in floodwaters and two were killed in a landslide.

More than 6,000 people have been forced into emergency shelters in schools and other public buildings.

The military ruler, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, declared an emergency in parts of Veti Levu, allowing authorities to impose night curfews to deter looting.

New Zealand announced $59,000 in funding to assist relief efforts by the Fiji Red Cross.

Link
This from PRAVDA.

I found this at Accuweather. JB's column.
Apparently russian scientists arn't buying GW.


Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
Front page / Science / Planet Earth
11.01.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru


Pages: 123

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

Gregory F. Fegel

It's a freestanding...i haven't pruned it yet...i read you shouldn't do it till Feb but I don't know how to take care of it.
Good morning Pottery, Baha, Surfmom-everyone- re#294:Baha thanks so much for your explanation- we argue about this all the time here, and it is true that Barbados suffered much more direct hits in the 19th century- and a lot of deaths and destruction-
of course they didn't know what was coming much of the time- so no preparation and the majority of people- the slaves and then small farmers and field hands lived in flimsy structures, except those who who were lucky enough to live in what we call "slave huts", solid stone structures, some still standing

it really was only Janet in the 20th, with lots of near enough misses to cause damage, but still relatively unscathed compared to many other places..

I am having trouble with the blog. After I post I have to go out completely and come back in to see who al has posted after me. and it also takes a long time for the blog to come on. Do not understand it. Does anyone else have this trouble?

Have to run now-, for those of you in the cold, keep warm and do hope there is no major nor-easter in a few days, life has become snarled up enough on the east coast.
The practice of chopping off the tops of crape myrtle has become very commonplace. Many people believe that it is required to promote flowering; some prune because the plant is too large for the space provided; others see their neighbors doing it and feel the need to follow suit. There are some instances in which heavy pruning is necessary, but light pruning is usually all that is needed. The type and amount of pruning depends on the desired shape and size of the plant.

Link


There ya go Mel.
That's as far off-topic as I'm willing to go on the subject.
Good luck with your myrtle!
I want to see how the ACE score compares with the total number of storms, number of cat5 storms, and the El Nino score average for the same time period.
Why was 2004-6 such a huge record year, but there are two peaks that look much higher in the previous decade.
How do the Solar cycle and AMO cycle overlay on the ACE score? Both of those should be on a downward trend now, right?
Good morning folks,

Quoting melwerle:
It's a freestanding...i haven't pruned it yet...i read you shouldn't do it till Feb but I don't know how to take care of it.


My only caution has to do with how much you prune. My sister's crepe myrtles were pruned down to the base of the plant. (IMHO) it was not surprising that it developed lots of new limbs at the base of the plant. After a few years of that, it starts looking more like a bush, than a tree. (cause and effect or coincidence??) Just in case it was cause and effect, perhaps you should only cut back to where you would like the new limbs to form. Can anyone verify my theory?

MODIFIED - Ahhh... post #343 confirms my theory - thanks Vortex
Thank you! I was kind of waiting to see what to do - still too cold here to hack though. I thought I didn't want to do what folks call "crape murder"...
I have spent alot of time in Japan, They use crepe myrtles and ginkos as urban landscaping alot, and trim them back severly each year. The trees evetually grow knobbs, like gauls on the ends of the branches where they are groomed to year after year. It is a cool look, that I think is cool.
Now I live in florida and prune my trees that way. They respond very well to it, and bloom over and over. I give them an inch or two more each year, and they send shoots out that grow 5-9 feet tall over the summer.
If you don't like the knobby look, just trim them a bit shorter every 3rd year or so.

Oh, yes, this is what you call crepe murder-above. You prune them after all the leaves fall off in the fall. That way the new shoots grow as soon as the sap gets to them in the spring.

I agree that pruning them down to the ground is a bad idea. That will lead to lots of "sucker" shoots and make a thicket, rather than trunks and a tree-like habit.
RE: TampaSpin #323 and Patrap #312
Quoting Patrap:
Unisys

5day GFSx 850 mb Plot valid 0 zulu FRI 16 JAN 09 Link
Yikes! Wish those numbers were not degrees Centigrade, but instead the difference from our norms.
Thursday 7am temperatures...........burrrr..

Even the deep south is going to feel the effects of this cold blast,still have my doubts about the big storm this week.
351. eddye
how cold will south fla get upper 30 for next friday
I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view.....Dangerous Conditions coming in ConUS!

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
TampaSpin --- please say it isn't so... don't want "el Norte" in my neighborhood.

Orca -- I don't want to be mean -- but if you send me a snow wish... I'm holding up my special mirror so it goes back to you.

Mel - Hold off all pruning till you are sure the chance of frost has past.... if you need to protect it use a sheet so the tree can breath... I love crepe myrtle

Reading about Fiji --guess there's no such thing as paradise.

Where's Bonedog???? Is he missing or buried under a snow bank?

Okay - that's it for me - chickens becken & coop needs to be set up for cooler temps, then it's off to the Barns.... Horse love & tasks always make a grey day seem less dismal... They are my sunshine!
Quoting surfmom:
TampaSpin --- please say it isn't so... don't want "el Norte" in my neighborhood.

Orca -- I don't want to be mean -- but if you send me a snow wish... I'm holding up my special mirror so it goes back to you.

Mel - Hold off all pruning till you are sure the chance of frost has past.... if you need to protect it use a sheet so the tree can breath... I love crepe myrtle

Reading about Fiji --guess there's no such thing as paradise.

Where's Bonedog???? Is he missing or buried under a snow bank?

Okay - that's it for me - chickens becken & coop needs to be set up for cooler temps, then it's off to the Barns.... Horse love & tasks always make a grey day seem less dismal... They are my sunshine!


Its coming prepare to care for the four legged friends you care for....they will need help.
Morning all: Looks like some right nippy weather coming our way soon!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its coming prepare to care for the four legged friends you care for....they will need help.


Which brings me to another question - what do you do to prepare for the cold blast.

My little heater only brings the room I live in up to about 15F above outside temp, so I my plans include - plastic on the windows and stuff cracks in windows and doors (can make quite a difference - I will find out how much). In addition I will purchase ingredients for large pot of chili, purchase sweat pants and hose, purchase rum for my coffee in the morning, make sure I have plenty of coffee and hot chocolate on hand.
When 28F or less is predicted, I generally keep water running. I have already brought my plants inside. Since I am off Friday, I plan to stay inside all day (probably in bed under the covers with a good book).
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Which brings me to another question - what do you do to prepare for the cold blast.

My little heater only brings the room I live in up to about 15F above outside temp, so I my plans include - plastic on the windows and stuff cracks in windows and doors (can make quite a difference - I will find out how much). In addition I will purchase ingredients for large pot of chili, purchase sweat pants and hose, purchase rum for my coffee in the morning, make sure I have plenty of coffee and hot chocolate on hand.
When 28F or less is predicted, I generally keep water running. I have already brought my plants inside. Since I am off Friday, I plan to stay inside all day (probably in bed under the covers with a good book).


Rum is good just bought a 1.75ml bottle also but, it does thin the blood and actually make you colder. Also, beware of the space heaters as many fires break out in homes with these and if your going to burn a fire in the fireplace for the first time test only a small fire first just to make sure the venting is clear. Have seen meany surprises before.....LOL
Yikes cold coming. About the Crape Myrtles-they look best just shaped and not cut into fists. They will survive and bloom well either way they are tough trees. They make great safe Parrot perches too.
Congrats on the Gators, BTW!

Quoting TampaSpin:


Rum is good just bought a 1.75ml bottle also but, it does thin the blood and actually make you colder. Also, beware of the space heaters as many fires break out in homes with these and if your going to burn a fire in the fireplace for the first time test only a small fire first just to make sure the venting is clear. Have seen meany surprises before.....LOL

Very good point about the space heaters. I use a "safe heat" device (I forget which principle it is based on). It even has a thermostat - which will be a moot point if it gets as cold as we think. I considered buying a space heater, but decided against the expense (only gets anywhere near this cold about 5 days a year). In addition, as you pointed out, too many fires associated with them.
I could always bug out and go to my sisters house - she has conventional heat and lots of it. I would rather stay home, since the cat would be freaked out by the dog.
Don't forget to protect the pipes from freezing.
Quoting Skyepony:
Don't forget to protect the pipes from freezing.


Indeed, we leave our spouts dripping water - does anyone know of anything else to do? Do you leave hot water as well as cold water running?

I will not be able to add insulation to pipes. On a side note, here in Charleston, one of the problems with temps in the teens, is that water mains can break. So I guess I will check my water supply. Would need to add to it for the upcoming hurricane season any way.