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The global hurricane season of 2006: was it unusual?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on January 03, 2007

The year 2006 is in the books, and its time to review the notable tropical cyclones of the year. For the first time since 1997, there was little to talk about in the Atlantic. The only Atlantic storm of significance was Hurricane Ernesto, which killed five people in Haiti and did $500 million in damage to the U.S. East Coast. The action was much more intense in the Eastern Pacific, which saw 20 named storms (16 is average) and six major hurricanes (4.5 is average.) The Pacific coast of Mexico was pounded by three tropical cyclones in 2006: Hurricane John hit Baja as a Category 2 hurricane, killing 5; Hurricane Lane hit north of Mazatlan as a Category 3 hurricane, killing 4; and Tropical Storm Paul hit the same region, killing four. Also notable, although it did not affect land, was Hurricane Sergio. It formed in mid-November and grew to Category 2 strength, becoming the strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane so late in the season and the longest-lived November tropical cyclone on record in that ocean basin.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ernesto just before landfall in North Carolina, August 31, 2006.


Figure 2. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2006. The three numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2006, followed by the average for the period 1970-2005 (in parentheses), followed by the record from the same period (in red).

Looking at the statistics for the season (Figure 2), 2006 appears to be a fairly normal year. No records were set for tropical cyclone activity in any ocean basin. Was it was a good year for the proponents of the theory that global warming is causing an increase in strong hurricanes? Twenty-nine major hurricane formed in 2006, just one shy of the record of 30, and 21 Category 4 and 5 storms formed, half way between the average of 17 and the record high of 25. These numbers are similar to those of 2005, which had 27 major storms and 22 Category 4 and 5 storms. However, as reported in a Science article by Landsea et. al in July, the number of Category 4 and 5 storms between 1978-1990 globally may have been undercounted by 70 storms. If true, this would bring the statistics for 2005 and 2006 closer to average for these most powerful of tropical cyclones. A new policy statement regarding the unproven link between stronger hurricanes and climate change was adopted by the World Meteorological Organization in December, in response to the recommendations of a meeting of 125 hurricane researchers that attended a meeting in Costa Rica. The summary statement (which I agree with) is posted at the World Meteorological Organization web site, and the ten main points are presented below. There is also a detailed statement with references to the scientific literature available at the WMO web site.

Consensus Statements by International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-VI (IWTC-VI) Participants:

The surfaces of most tropical oceans have warmed by 0.25 - 0.5°C during the past several decades. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the likely primary cause of the rise in global mean surface temperature in the past 50 years is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as represented at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization has released a statement on the links between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons. This statement is in response to increased attention on tropical cyclones due to the following events:

a) There have been a number of recent high-impact tropical cyclone events around the globe. These include 10 landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan in 2004, five tropical cyclones affecting the Cook Islands in a five-week period in 2005, Cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, Cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, Typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and the extremely active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons - including the catastrophic socio-economic impact of Hurricane Katrina.

b) Some recent scientific articles have reported a large increase in tropical cyclone energy, numbers, and wind-speeds in some regions during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface temperatures. Other studies report that changes in observational techniques and instrumentation are responsible for these increases.

1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.

3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.

6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.

7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.

8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.

9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Indeed Population keeps growing along in coastal regions which are very vulnerable to extreme damage from a major hurricane.Look forward to your next update Dr.Masters thanks.
many thanks from florida. i've very concerned about the future and losing sleep over it...
Dr. Masters forgot to mention Ioke (longest lasting Cat 4-5 ever recorded worldwide, first Cat 5 to develop in the Central Pacific (excluding storms that developed in the East Pacific), most intense Central Pacific storm, and highest single storm ACE ever recorded worldwide - even higher than the entire 2006 Atlantic hurricane season). And Monica - while the 868 mb pressure was not official, it does have the highest winds ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as being one of the most symmetrical storms ever seen (who knows how strong it really was - I wish that recon could be done globally). Also, Cimaron, which had two consecutive Dvorak bulletins that said it had the looks of a T8.0 storm (T8.0 is 195 mph, 858 mb); Dvorak rules were the only reason why it wasn't rated at that intensity. Oh, and Durian... 2006's Katrina (the most destructive and one of the deadliest storms in the Philippines)... hopefully 2007 won't have a storm like one of those...
That old saw, "a picture is worth a thousand words," applies here. All writers know that words are a gross filter for communication. Even so, they are telling, here. The phrase "no firm link can yet be drawn," is a lot different than saying that research has not found a plausible link. Certainly thought goes into how to word such a statement. The inclusion of the word "firm" acknowledges that the link that has been found is recognized, although not proven with the desired rigor. "Yet" implies anticipation that a rigorous link will be demonstrated in future, not the other way 'round.

Three days after this WMO press release, another one was issued on the state of global climate. The warming of the earth is even more pronounced over the northern hemisphere; while 2006 is estimated to be the sixth warmest year on record, it will be the fourth warmest for the northern hemisphere. The record ozone hole and the Arctic sea ice decline were also noted.

Note: I was referring to the comment Jeff edited out of the blog, from the 11 Dec press release:

A consensus of 125 of the worlds leading tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters says that no firm link can yet be drawn between human-induced climate change and variations in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones.

It is definitely better to see the actual statements rather than the press release; thanks much, Jeff (I was trying to find them online and couldn't).
Very interesting stuff Dr. Masters, I'm glad some of this global warming = more or more intense hurricanes propaganda is calming down a little.

I also agree with the WMO statement, fwiw.
----------------------------------------

A pattern change is in sight for Florida this coming month. Read more on my blog or

Florida Weather
MIAMI Frustrated with people and politicians who refuse to listen or learn, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield ends his 34-year government career today in search of a new platform for getting out his unwelcome message: Hurricane Katrina was nothing compared with the big one yet to come.

Mayfield, 58, leaves his high-profile job with the National Weather Service more convinced than ever that U.S. residents of the Southeast are risking unprecedented tragedy by continuing to build vulnerable homes in the tropical storm zone and failing to plan escape routes.

He pointed to southern Florida's 7 million coastal residents.

"We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely populated area to have a major disaster," he said. "I know people don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

More than 1,300 deaths across the Gulf Coast were attributed to Hurricane Katrina, the worst human toll from a weather event in the United States since the 1920s.

But Mayfield warns that 10 times as many fatalities could occur in what he sees as an inevitable strike by a huge storm during the current highly active hurricane cycle, which is expected to last another 10 to 20 years.

His apocalyptic vision of thousands dead and millions homeless is a different side of the persona he established as head of the hurricane center.

Mayfield attained national celebrity status during the tempestuous 2004 and 2005 seasons, appearing on network television with hourly updates as hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Frances and Wilma bore down on the Caribbean and the Southeast. His calm demeanor and avuncular sincerity endeared him to millions of TV viewers seeking survival guidance.

And he argues that his dire predictions don't have to become reality.

The technology exists to build high-rise buildings capable of withstanding hurricane-force winds and tropical storm surge more powerful than those experienced in the last few years. Much of Hong Kong's architecture has been built to survive typhoons, and hotels and apartments built in Kobe, Japan, after a 1995 earthquake devastated the city are touted as indestructible, he said.

What is lacking in the United States is the political will to make and impose hard decisions on building codes and land use in the face of resistance from the influential building industry and a public still willing to gamble that the big one will never hit, he said.

"It's good for the tax base" to allow developers to put up buildings on the coastline, Mayfield said in explaining politicians' reluctance to deter housing projects that expose residents to storm risks.

"I don't want the builders to get mad at me," he said, "but the building industry strongly opposes improvement in building codes."

Consumers also have yet to demand sturdier construction, Mayfield added. A builder gets a better return on investment in upgraded carpet and appliances than for safety features above and beyond most states' minimal requirements, he said.

As a senior civil servant, Mayfield was prohibited from making job inquiries in the private sector while still in the government's employ. But he said on Tuesday, his last day in office, that he hoped to launch a second career as a consultant in emergency planning and disaster response. He has particular interest in a potential public-private initiative to mine natural disaster scenes for their educational value.

He envisions a natural disaster assessment service like the National Transportation Safety Board, which probes the causes and consequences of aviation and other transport accidents.

"If the NTSB finds some structural problem is the cause of an air crash, you would never see that plane continue to be built with the same problems," he said.

With natural disasters, though, the same mistakes that put lives at risk are repeated year after year in unsafe construction and inadequate planning, he said.

Mayfield said he also was pondering collaboration with advocates of tougher building standards and land use rules.

"It's not just about the forecasting. Whatever I do, I want to help change the outcome," he said, conceding frustration with persistent public disregard of federal and local government campaigns to boost hurricane awareness and preparation.
Buster, what excactly are you getting at? If you averaged El Nino and La Nina then it would come out about neutral. There have been about as many El Ninos as La Ninas in recorded history.
I for one do believe in Global Warming. The largest Ice Shelf in recent history just broke off in the Canadian Arctic. Lake Pools are forming in areas that have only known ice/snow..and those lake pools cause a more rapid disintegration of the ice and snow fields.

www.climatecrisis.net

No matter what your political convictions are, this documentary is worth seeing. Just watch the statistics...forget everything else, just look at the facts that are presented it will make you stop and think twice.

PeaHeath...If someone really believes the globe is not warming then they need to really think hard. The only question is whether the globe would be warming without our influences, not whether its warming or cooling in general.
Neutral being normal, being not warmer then ussual or colder then ussual.

BTW, even climate scientists agree that warmer SST temps does not equal more hurricanes. They still cant make a firm link between warmer SST and stronger hurricanes.
I believe that warmer water does mean potentially stronger storms:



(also, a nice shot of upwelling, from Isobel, NW of Australia)
i think that hurricane cimron was the strongest hurricane of 2006
My prediction for 2007 is that the GA coast will continue our major hurricane immunity :)
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=an+inconvenient+truth+movie
The map I posted above is all the proof you need (more here)... I think they ought to extend the scale down to 800 mb... LOL
We don't get named hurricanes or cyclones here, but they should well name them. BC Canada coast has set records this year for hurricane force winds, storm damage etc. Never seen this kind of stuff here before. There has definitely been a shift in the kind of weather we get here, but I don't think it is global warming. I think that this is all part of a pattern that repeats itself every so often. For Example In Death Valley, which usually gets only 2" of rainfall a year, now there are flowers blooming everywhere.(Discovery Channel) The excess rain has roused long dormant seeds into flowering plants. Obviously there were plants there to go to seed in the first place. Sounds like a natural cycle to me!
The last time the ice melted been 55 million years ago.

Some call it pessimistic few, but more and more it turns out to be optimistic.
Maybe a chance is to try to survive and prepare now for a future of our species.

"Our global furnace is out of control. By 2020, 2025, you will be able to sail a sailboat to the North Pole. The Amazon will become a desert, and the forests of Siberia will burn and release more methane and plagues will return."
http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2900
Emanuel's paper on aerosols, CO2 vs the AMO on storm intensity got published. I never actually saw the document. Neat stuff.

Ran across it looking at NOAA's updated page on the subject of climate change & intensity. They updated a section up to with WMO's thought's, updated their thoughts too... We can't be foresure if climate change is currently affecting intensities, but we totally expect it to in the future...

credit NOAA~ click pic to make bigger

Of course the review of Emanuel & Webster is given along with more interesting GFDL research.

I would have liked to see the WMO approach this more from the Emanuel way of looking at this from the cat 3,4,5 as for increase, instead of the Webster et al. cat 4 & 5. Cat 2 isn't so stable, likes to be either a 3 or 1 most of the time. It's easier to tell the difference, then between a cat 3 & a 4.

& like Michael brought up~there is Dvorak & other tools that are suddenly bottoming out, like our instraments of measurement need to read a higher wind, T# or allow for a lower mb. Kinda freaky seeing that patch of 90SST the other day.




By the way, Skyepony, see the solid black dot (High CO2) near the 880 mb point? That is Wilma (the lowest circle for Control respresents Gilbert)... meaning that we have already reached theat point... I expect to see it updated sometime soon because of this...
so whats going on her i am lost LOL
Oh, I have the results of the polls in my blog, along with some interesting observations, such as that almost everybody picked the Southeast as the main severe weather target in 2007, despite the fact that many did not pick hurricanes (I wonder why; while they do have tornadoes and severe storms, they are not like Midwestern tornadoes, which caused billion in damages (two outbreaks >$500 million each) and scores of deaths last year).
We indeed had alot of power systems across the world in 2006 from Ioke to Daniel and Saomai.Thankgod none actually came ashore in any U.S. coastline.

Here is an infrared pic of Super Typhoon Ioke showing off a very impressive CDO.


Good point Michael. I wonder what the average in mbs this season's storms were, to compare to that graph too.

Monica bombing the cimss intensity chart.
Occording to the NCEP Esembles some cold air might be makeing a push into the southeast in a couple of weeks.Let's see if it verifies.

NCEP Animation
Here's the problem, cyclonebuster: in order to tackle ANY issues regarding climate and hurricanes, whether it's understanding posts that detail an analysis of potential correlations (such as Dr. Masters's post above, or many of the other posts I've seen on these boards), thinking critically about proposed solutions like those tunnels you've been going on about for the almost three years I've been watching these forums, or realizing that interest groups DO indeed funnel money to scientists who support their side of the story, Americans need to have EDUCATION.

Education isn't just reading blogs like this every day, even though some of them provide good information. There is also a lot of garbage on the Internet. Each and every person on the Internet has the right to spew whatever opinion or idea they want, regardless of whether or not it is founded in any kind of reality. Education also includes teaching people critical thinking skills, so that they have the ability to SQRRR (Survey, Question, Read, Recite and Review) as well as the ability to consider what information might be left out, what the motives of the author might be and the ability to locate and use other resources to research any questions that they might still have on any given topic. Critical thinking skills and practical application of them are essential to understanding issues like climate change. In addition, education should also provide people with the motivation to continue lifelong learning patterns so that new information can be equally analyzed and applied. Continuing to repeat the same ideas over and over when new or additional information demonstrates that those ideas are not effective does nothing to further a solution.

I agree with the Consensus Statements quoted in Dr. Masters's blog. Even statements that on the surface seem to be either not related to climate change or possibly against a climate-change connection, such as "3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.", are still true and are still important for people to take into consideration. Any kind of changes that we want to enact and any kind of solutions to the umbrella "problem" must take such things into consideration and make adjustments as necessary. Perhaps, as the article quoted by Randrewl suggests, part of the "solution" is in making people aware of the dangers that they are putting on themselves by being oblivious or careless. Any efforts to "combat global warming" should also include efforts to improve infrastructures, architecture and awareness for what we already know can happen, rather than focusing solely on what might happen.
I'd like to stick a tunnel up your arse! Shut up about them and please stop littering the blog with the junk. You can make all the unsubstantiated claims you want, but in the end you have no evidence besides a couple of theorys you really dont understand.

BTW, notice how you kill the blog when you spam that crap...?
42. Inyo
For Example In Death Valley, which usually gets only 2" of rainfall a year, now there are flowers blooming everywhere.(Discovery Channel) The excess rain has roused long dormant seeds into flowering plants. Obviously there were plants there to go to seed in the first place. Sounds like a natural cycle to me!

It is natural to get wet years in the desert. Usually what happens is a localized thunderstorm will cause a bunch of flowers to pop up in one place, make seeds, and die. the seeds can wait for many, many years for another thunderstorm. However, both the scope and coverage of the rainfall in 2004-2005 around Death Valley was unheard of in the last 100 years, and maybe much longer. A lake filled up for the spring, that may not have held that much water since the Ice Age.

The desert is always changing. It was somewhat wetter 100 years ago, then became much drier, then is becoming (relatively) wetter again. if 2004-2005 is a natural cycle, it is a once in a lifetime event, at least. If we see more rainfall of this magnitude in the area in the next 50 years, it is probably related to climate change, either natural or human caused.
43. N3EG
Posted By: Westcoaster: We don't get named hurricanes or cyclones here, but they should well name them.

Thingamabobbercane. Our weather is a freakin' joke to them.

Posted By: EricNielsen: The Amazon will become a desert, and the forests of Siberia will burn and release more methane and plagues will return.

Which ones? Locusts and frogs and snakes, oh my?
Though named playas (PLY-yas, Spanish for beaches), the dry lakes that dot the western deserts in the United States and Mexico don't bring the ocean to mind. Most often, these flat, hardened lakebeds are desolate places that seem better suited for otherworldly adventures like landing the Space Shuttle (at Edwards Air Force Base, California) or setting the world's first supersonic land speed record (in the Black Rock Desert, Nevada).

During the last Ice Age, when the climate was much cooler and wetter, most southwestern playas were filled with waterlakes in landlocked drainage basins between mountain ranges. Even Death Valley once cradled a glistening lake. As the climate warmed to today's temperate conditions, lake water evaporated, leaving dissolved minerals behind. Because storm runoff from nearby mountains transports dissolved salts to lake basins below, playas are often thickly layered with salt deposits.

Although usually seen as bleak, flat, dry landscapes, playas come to life in the rain. Just one desert downpour can cover acres of a dry lakebed with a thin sheet of waterlooking for all the world like a mirage. Willcox Playa in southeastern Arizona hosts thousands of sandhill cranes each winter (24,000 during the 1998-99 season). These four-foot-tall birds roost in the shallow water, safe from coyotes and bobcats, and spend their days foraging on leftovers in nearby cornfields. The lake teems with tiny fairy shrimp, food for thousands of smaller wading birds. In February and March, the cranes venture north again, as far as Alaska, to breed. With the approach of summer, the lake vanishes, appearing only as a mirage until the next rain.
O'Hare's UFO....was it a weather phenomenon or something more?
The eyewitness described a perfect disc that he and a co-worker watched for many minutes hovering at a very low 1900 feet just below the cloud base right over one of the world's busiest airports in broad daylight. The two were ferrying a large United jetliner from one side of O'Hare to the other as they watched the UFO/craft hovering directly above one of the main terminal gates. It was clearly an amazing sight.
"The UFO report has sparked some chuckles among controllers in O'Hare tower. 'To fly 7 million light years to O'Hare and then have to turn around and go home because your gate was occupied is simply unacceptable,' said O'Hare controller and union official Craig Burzych."
LMAO Rand, I can imagine there have been many jokes that have been going on since this was published.
It was just a weather anomaly.....that's the official word...LOL
Yikes!
This is not an anomaly.





Hi frozencannuck.
The United Kingdom Met. Office is predicting that 2007 will be the warmests year on record, Internationally. They have a 0.06 % error rating .........Buy a fan guys...
Sorry, that should be a 0.06 C error....
Oh, and that should be a Manual, hand- opperated fan too......
I wonder how many times we will see a headline like this this year?
Its too cold there for me, STL........
LOL... and it is actually well above normal (by the way, take a look at the Canada temperature graphs I posted in my blog so you can monitor the (currently nonexistant) Arctic air- freakish):



I was actually referring to the headline "2006 Weather Review - A RECORD BREAKING YEAR"
Here comes the rain...

1900 - it has already started raining here
Seems like TSR is still calling for an active season across the Atlantic Basin.

15/8/4
Ah,H23.Did you have to post the numbers?Now everyone will say I cheated when I make my own forecast tomorrow.
LOL!Hopefully this current pattern thats in place now wont hold cause if it does florida might be in some trouble this season.Hopefully we end up with persistent troffiness kicking everthing out to sea.Last year capeverde systems had absolutely no chance at reaching the U.S. with the TROF we had in place.
Yeah, I noticed the big old Bermuda High off the East Coast earlier:

If that Bermuda High remans in place for the Hurricane Season, what do you think the chances are that the Houston Area will see a hurricane?
There really isn't any way to tell what the setup will be like in 6 months or more; last year presumely had a similar setup in January but it didn't last.
If that bermuda high were to remain in place Florida might at great risk with systems crossing into the gulf of mexico.Remember once a system moves into the gulf it has no place to go but to hit land somewere.
I'm not saying it will, but if it does.
and there will be hoter sea temps in the gulf this year then last year
The bermuda high will shift many times from now till hurricane season so really there no way to know what kind of pattern will be in place.Its all about timeing with tropical systems.
and like all ways i run evere one off when i post in her oh well i this wont post any more in her be come evere time i post a commet they a run off
if there is going to be hotter sea temps in the GOM and if a TD or TS crosses into the gulf we could see another Katrina like hurricane.
Anything is possible, Thunderstorm2, but for me, living in S. FL, I'd like to wait until next hurricane season starts before I begin thinking about such scenarios.
How's that??
Enjoy yer first day of retirement Max..and catch a Big one on yer trip today!..Thanks for all your years of service to America! 5
It is a bit early to be thinking about the possibility of another Katrina like storm.
Season still 178 days away..LOL
really you should think about it early so you can prepare for the worst.
I've never said this about anyone in the 2 years I've been on this blog, but cyclonebuster needs to be banned. Seriously.
i agree
That wont happen.Hes done nothing to be banned.Cept drive us all nutz. LOL!Dont think that ones on the Bann list.
I was in the worst .Thunderstorm2
pity that isn't on the ban list
this upcoming season is going to be my first taste of a HS upclose
Where r u located ?
Orlando, FL
Floridian..Okay.Neighbors we are.
yo kris
hi kris
Thunder2, Hurricanes can be interesting,and in some cases fun(in an odd sense of the word).
Fun..thats a weird way to describe it.
im looking forward to it
Well..whatch what you ask for.U just might get it.Then youll see the lack of FUN in an MCI.
so i better not pray to hard
That's just how I view it,Patrap.
Then youve never been in a calamity before.
The storm comes and goes. Then the real work begins.
And besides...as I said,fun in an odd sense of the word.
Here's what's really fun to watch. Someone that has never been through a hurricane.....when it hits and they realize there is nothing they can do about it now cause it's too late. Those eyes get sooooo big....and the dry mouth sets is and they can't swallow! Start getting the shakes and all.......
Ive seen that look rand..about 4 hours after Katrina passed..LOL..
Whens it gonna stop.?..Please make it stop!...O why didnt I evacuate ?...
as i said im looking forward to it
I was here..1 mile west of here.
Be sure to stock up on food,water..Meds...Fuel...Rescue equpment.Film.Body Bags...etc.
me too,Thunder.And not because I like all the havoc,death and destruction.
Be sure to stock up on food,water..Meds...Fuel...Rescue equpment.Film.Body Bags...etc.

LOL
acclimate to 100plus temps.Or buy a gen and window unit.No elect..no A/c.That tends to make the survivors a lil ..er, restless and grumpy.O yeah..sidearms and long rifles too.
Body Bags...etc.
B...BODY BAGS??
People die. Yeah....ain't no fun then.
so you will need body bags for anyone who comes hurtling into the window
The body bags are for the folks..who cant laugh no more.
Thunderstorm2, you wouldn't want to be in a hurricane; believe me, while I have never been in one since I can't get them where I live, I did experience two derechos in three days last summer; they are like a Cat 1-2 hurricane that lasts for half an hour or so, nothing like a major hurricane but still not something to make light of (or to wish for; a million homes lost power for as long as two weeks in some cases and damage to power lines alone was over $100 million... and ten people died, mainly from lack of AC in 100+ heat). Here is an example of what it looked like during the storm:

Thunder,you will never have to use body bags in Orlando after a hurricane.No storm surge gets in there and besides,unless you've got family members with who,who're you going to stick in a body bag?
Yeah..loads of fun..
note.It takes 2 large plastic garbage bags to securely wrap a Human remain..bring grey tap too.
well if the rest of my family go crazy then i might just stick them in a bodybag
Never is word one never uses in Tropical forecasting...
This is a typical off-season Morning roundtable....
And besides,I know what a hurricane's like.
Orlando immune?
No surge yes....wind damage....kills easy too.
Here's wind damage from Andrew. There's what's left of your house....no surge there either.






121. WSI
Smells really trollish in here. ;)
Okay..lesson over.Outside for recess..Wipe yer shoe before returning..LOL!
They're right,Thunder2.The lack of AC can really get to you.Luckily if you're in an inland area like Orlando,you may get a few thunderstorms of of the sea breezes that will cool you down.Unfortunately,right after those storms, it's even more humid than before.
Orlando doesn't have a force field around it to stop the damade from winds and rain.
ive just moved here and im already starting to hate the heat
Rand,that damage was in Miami,not Orlando.All I meant was that there's no surge,and in most instances the storms weaken significantly by the time they get to Orlando.Charley was an exception.

Better refer to Orlando past storm History.
Next winter is looking like it could be pretty cold if a La Nina does form.I think everyone other than Denver should give up on this winter.
Katrina ..or a similar storm can run over Orlando..if a High pressure dome would have made A Rita or Katrina turn NE..Orlando wouldnt be here.If directly impacted.And yes..there would have been surge.
Next winter?..we only 2 weeks into this one..LOL!
Here's your house again.
Think about it.






I hope the weather pattern shifts soon... or winter will be over for good (the coldest period is normally mid-January, after which it warms up; I consider winter to be December-February because of this, which is also the NWS's definition of winter, not winter solstice to vernal equinox). This is just through 7:00 am today:



The normal average temperature for today is 30 degrees.
Rand,that damage was in Miami,not Orlando.All I meant was that there's no surge,and in most instances the storms weaken significantly by the time they get to Orlando.Charley was an exception.

There will always be another exception.
Within the actual hurricane are many, many individual vortices, straight line winds and tornadoes. Once the storm gets inland a ways....you see more of that.
tornados im not to sure of
One more example.
Wilma crossed the whole state before hitting me on the East coast. I have never experienced any storm with the energy she had left after crossing the state.
There's another little exception.
there is lots of exceptions
Dr. Masters has a new blog.
Yea Randrewl and if Wilma would have not moved over land South Florida could have easily experienced cat 2-3 winds which would have done alot more damage.Also if Katrina would have had lets say 6-12 more hours out over water the situation would have been alot worse for southeast florida.

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