WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The future of wind shear: will it decrease the number of hurricanes?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on May 21, 2008

Could global warming increase wind shear over the Atlantic, potentially leading to a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes? Several modeling studies are now predicting this, and it is a reasonable hypothesis. The most recent study, "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions", was published Sunday in Nature Geosciences. The authors, led by Tom Knutson of NOAA's GFDL laboratory, showed that global warming may reduce the number of Atlantic tropical storms by 27% and hurricanes by 18% by the end of the century. However, their model also found that the strongest hurricanes would get stronger.

An important reason that their model predicted a decrease in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes was due to a predicted increase in wind shear. As I explain in my wind shear tutorial, a large change of wind speed with height over a hurricane creates a shearing force that tends to tear the storm apart. The amount of wind shear is critical in determining whether a hurricane can form or survive.

The main sources wind shear over the tropical Atlantic:
1) The jet stream is the primary year-round source of high wind shear over the Atlantic. The jet can have two branches--the main northerly polar jet, and a weaker subtropical jet that blows over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. In winter, the jet stream is far to the south, bringing very high levels of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean Sea is warm enough year-round to support hurricane formation, but high levels of wind shear from the southerly position of the jet stream prevents wintertime hurricanes from forming. In the summer, the jet stream retreats to the north, but can still loop far enough south to create hurricane-hazardous wind shear.

2) The large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation pattern known as the Walker Circulation (Figure 1) can bring high wind shear to the Atlantic. A weak Walker Circulation brings high wind shear, while a strong Walker Circulation--rising air over the tropics near Australia, combined with sinking air of the coast of South America near Peru--brings weak upper-level winds over the Atlantic, resulting in low levels of wind shear.

3) The presence or absence of an El Niño event has a critical impact on wind shear levels. El Niño events weaken the Walker Circulation, bringing strong upper-level winds out of the west to the Atlantic, creating high wind shear.

4) In summer and fall, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and upper-level cold-core low pressure systems ("cold lows") that are cut off from the jet stream often wander through the tropics, bringing high wind shear with them.

5) A strong east-to-west flowing jet of air is frequently found at the southern boundary of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a hot, dry region of air found off the coast of Africa during hurricane season. This easterly jet often is strong enough to cause significant wind shear over the hurricane development region of the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 1. Schematic drawing of the Pacific Ocean's Walker Circulation. Warm ocean waters over the Western Pacific near Australia heat the air above, causing it to rise. When the rising air reaches the top of the troposphere, it can't rise any further, and is forced to flow eastwards towards the Atlantic. This air then sinks back to the surface near the Pacific coast of South America, then flows back towards Australia as easterly trade winds. Image credit: Wikipedia.

The future of wind shear
In their 2007 paper, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Gabe Vecchi of NOAA's GFDL laboratory and Brian Soden of the University of Miami looked at 18 of the models used to formulate the "official word" on the science of climate change, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate report. Vecchi and Soden found that in the scenario where CO2 doubles to 720 ppm by year 2100 (the so-called "A1B" scenario), these models predict a 1.5-3.5°C increase in global surface air temperature. However, in the Caribbean and some surrounding regions, at least 13 of the 18 models predict that the amount of wind shear rises by 1-2 mph per degree C of warming (Figure 2). The shear increases largely as a result of a weakening of the Walker Circulation. This weakening brings strong upper-level westerly winds to the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean.

The implications
If true, Vecchi and Soden's results imply that we may see fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific by the end of the century, since wind shear is such an important ingredient in their formation. How reliable are these model predictions? If global warming is expected to cause a slowdown in the Walker Circulation and increased wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, shouldn't we be able to see these effects already? There is some evidence that we are seeing these effects. According an article by the same authors published in 2006 in Nature, the observed 0.5-0.6°C global warming in the past century has caused the Walker Circulation to slow down by 3.5%--in line with what theory predicts. Moreover, Wang and Lee (2008) documented a 3 mph increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic between 1949-2006 (despite some rather low shear years recently, such as during the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005). These results, plus the fact that 13 of the 18 IPCC models predict a tropical Atlantic wind shear increase in the coming century, make the hypothesis that we may see increased wind shear over the Atlantic in coming decades a reasonable one. However, climate scientists Ray Pierrehumbert and Rasmus Benestad argue in a 2006 post on realclimate.org that we need another ten years of observations of the Walker Circulation to confirm that we really are seeing a slowdown. In addition, we need to see if the model predictions of increased wind shear hold up when improved simulations with better data and higher resolutions are performed. These models are fairly primitive in their abilities to simulate these sort of regional climate shifts, and some models predict a strengthening of the Walker Circulation in coming decades--the opposite of what Vecchi and Soden found.


Figure 2. Top: predicted change by 2100 in wind shear (in meters per second per degree C of warming--multiply by two to get mph) as predicted by summing the predictions of 18 climate models. Bottom: The number of models that predict the effect shown in the top image. The dots show the locations where tropical storms formed between 1981-2005. The box indicates a region of frequent hurricane formation where wind shear is not predicted to change much. Image credit: Geophysical Research Letters, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", by Vecchi and Soden, 2007.

Caveats
All other things remaining constant, an increase in wind shear will cause fewer hurricanes to form. However, all other things will not remain constant. As the climate warms, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will warm, which may partially or completely offset the effects of increased wind shear. Vecchi and Soden's research also show a substantial increase in wind shear over most of the Southern Hemisphere's hurricane breeding grounds during their hurricane season, but a significant decrease in wind shear over the Western Pacific and North Indian Oceans. Typhoons and cyclones in these ocean basins may well get more numerous and stronger in the future as a result of the lower wind shear. Much more research remains to be done, and it is far too early to be confident of how wind shear might change in a warming world.

References
Vecchi, G.A., B.J. Soden, A.T. Wittenberg, I.M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M.J. Harrison, 2006, "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing", Nature, 441(7089), 73-76.

Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007, "Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming", Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905, 2007.

Wang, C., and S. Lee, 2008, "Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes", Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02708, doi:10.1029/2007GL032396, 2008.

realclimate.org has a nice discussion of the Veccu and Soden paper.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see those lil Popper's KotG

But anything north of Baton Rouge we call them Yankee Storms.LOL

NEXRAD Radar
Fort Polk Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link

These probability parameters usually perform well. Until I see some green or "warmer" I shall not get too excited about any early-season blobs...except the cup full before me this joint is peddling as coffee.



Source: Link
But anything north of Baton Rouge we call ithe Yankee Storms.LOL

Growing up, we called anyone north of I-10 yankee...including most of BR, with a special exception for Opelousas
497.

Hitting on all cylinders! Keep it coming man we all need some good smiles ☺
FEW DAYS TILL HURRICANE SEASON ~!

SO BE PREPARED ! SAFTY COMES FIRST !


- and why am i using caps?
Katrina changed the demographics..
<---Uptown Ruler..Offa Jefferson and Magazine now.
Pacific in Neutral state...Lastest update from the Aussies.

Here's a part of the lastest discussion....

Summary: Pacific climate patterns generally neutral
Pacific climate patterns remain generally neutral, although some aspects of the 2007/08 La Niña persist. Lingering La Niña signals include the continued presence of cooler than average water on the equator near the date-line, accompanied by reduced cloud and, in the first few weeks of May, enhanced Trade Winds.

Overall though, the tropical Pacific has been warming gradually during the past few months, with ocean temperatures now near-normal in central and eastern areas. In addition, the Trade Winds have decreased to near-normal levels in the western half of the Pacific and, confirming the return to neutral conditions, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is about zero for the past 30 days.

Computer model predictions show Pacific temperatures continuing to gradually increase over the next two seasons, but remaining near-average. The models indicate a low chance of either a stronger warming to El Niño levels or a re-intensification of La Niña conditions during 2008


Complete update HERE
Energizer Vid on Preparing from the NHC conf here last year. Link
504. StormJunkie 10:14 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
497.

Hitting on all cylinders! Keep it coming man we all need some good smiles ☺


Its been a little uptight in here lately.
Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in (
Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F


Some showers are starting to build Mid Gulf.
Video on Hurricane Tips from the Fla. Sun-Sentinel Link
513. 882MB
Hey everybody, good afternoon, Im waiting on the newest run on the GFS18Z,to see if it continues to show development,Is the ECMWF and the GFS the only ones forecasting possible development.
41 days today without a drop of rain in keywest.
Surrounded by water..and still a drought.
511. JFLORIDA 10:21 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F


Some showers are starting to build Mid Gulf.


The pressure reading is suspicious 1003mb. There is a low over the Yucatan Peninsula but it was around 1006mb according the NHC.
The graph of Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA - is interesting.

GRAPH Classic GOM storm/front graph
This should raise excitement in here...

Latest GFS is showing the E Coast low heading back towards S Fla. Seems to have a little larger wind field with it too, when it is over the Bahamas.

Folks, the most interesting game in the next 7 days is this front that is going to pull off shore in the next few days, at least imvho!
500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:09 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
you keep beleiving that cane addick


Whats there to believe? It's true shear is to high for tropical development....Why the disagreement? Look below, Shear is 40Knots and higher....I'm not saying anything towards you i am just stating in general shear is to high for development, However shear is decreasing.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

So in the future there could be only 1storm per season in the Atlantic Ocean and perhaps it being stronger than a cat5.

Could this later mean super-storms like in other inhabited planets?

STOP GLOBAL WARMING
511. JFLORIDA 6:21 PM EDT
Some showers are starting to build Mid Gulf.

But for the shear, it might look like this>
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197601.asp
Yeah, JFlorida, but the wind is far from interesting. Normal, and even weak, for there...


Open this text file for last month's historical records, look at column 7 and multiply by 2.2369 (to get mph). 15 to 20 mph is perfectly normal at this buoy.

Pressure keeps falling, but apparently the pressure gradient hasn't changed much (or maybe the anemometer is busted...hmmm)
pat...atmo..you guys are STILL here? and i thought I had no life! :)
Give it time, its just starting. But I dont think is has time to do anything much in the GOM before it goes into the Atl. The models have put it into west Fla a little faster.

The pressure is below average, well so. But not so low as in a strong frontal system. So its so so. and it looks to be at the bottom of the curve but It could still tick down.
Still nothing on the GFS 18z...
525.

I refer you to 518.
pat...atmo..you guys are STILL here? and i thought I had no life! :)

Still working. Running a home-brew oceanic chlorophyll front detection code many times over with minor tweaks to get the best possible result.

Front detection in image processing of geophysical data is a pain...

Every time I change a variable and run it, I have about 180 seconds to do something useful or look here. Nothing useful happens that quickly.
cane addict we will get what ever dev or not devs in the gom area in weather nothing can be ruled out and a non tropical sys is very possible they like high shear
yes sj imo backdoor is going to occur interesting to say the least
526. LOL

10 GOTO 20
20 GOTO 10

:)
Running a home-brew oceanic chlorophyll front detection code many times over with minor tweaks to get the best possible result.

chlorophyll??? more like BOROPHYLL! :)

/Billy Madison
528. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:39 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
cane addick we will get what ever dev or not devs in the gom area in weather nothing can be ruled out and a non tropical sys is very possible they like high shear
yes sj imo backdoor is going to occur interesting to say the least


Your subliminal message isn't that well hidden...
Just watched a discover show on the pc coming of age era.

Hard to believe we have come so far from the days of labor intensive DOS programing.

RUN
These things always do better at night. It will be a good watch then (just rainstorm wise) but I think shear is still running a bit high.
chlorophyll??? more like BOROPHYLL! :)

How would like to have a clear map of where to find all of the Mackerel, Marlin, Sails, and dolphin you could stand?
Lynx on a VT100 - those were the days.

Green or Amber were the only graphics flavors for your ASCII creations.
Watch out Drak, pearl is walking away with your comedy show!

Thank you KOTG. At least we are getting some more eyes on it now :~))
18z is still bent on the Caribbean system developing brings it close to Florida with a big high in the east.
JF, I was thinking more of the CoCo or TRS-80 :~)
534....atmo-the GOD-aggie...NOW you have my full ATTENTION! :)
i thought I WAS the only one that remembered the TRASH-80! :)
what message drak
Compuserve on a C128 (in vt 100 emulation)! Im gonna cry.
No way peraland, and as funny as it sounds, I was even blogging to an extent back then. Had the old put your phone on the modem deal and you could log into BBS's, At least I think that is what they were called.

1 meg of memory in the early 80's was like 5 to 10k Can you imagine!
hey, the state-of-the-art PCs when I entered college were Pentium 90s! they told us we needed to setup our email account, and coming from a small town I though, "But I already have a bank account. Why do I need another account?"

LOL
It makes it go in the gulf this time with a strong High to the East.
the COOL guys in '96 had to partition their HUGE 1GB hard drives.....were you that guy? :)
TRS-80

Whoa! Hey, no cussin in here, this is a family-oriented blog.
Not me pearl, I had a slight pc hiatus in the mid 90s, and i was never really one of the "cool" guys anyway ☺
i remember that sj com 64 my first intro to comp age that and dos
and bbs was right (bulletin board service)
550. IKE
18Z GFSLink
i never even owned a PC or computer of any kind (abacus excepted :) ) until 1998...and I STILL have that one and it still works!
SJ, i'm all out of jokes now lol. Maybe some will come back to me later :~)
545. TheWeatherMan504 6:49 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
It makes it go in the gulf this time with a strong High to the East.


Where do you see the system going into the Gulf? It still maintains a track across Central Cuba and just barely past South Florida, not in the Gulf.

Green or Amber were the only graphics flavors for your ASCII creations.

Can you believe I still have about 30 machines like that? No mouse, no graphics...all intentional. 4-3.0GHz processor cores, each, for raw number crunching only. Difference between then and now is the sheer power.

528. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:39 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
cane addict we will get what ever dev or not devs in the gom area in weather nothing can be ruled out and a non tropical sys is very possible they like high shear
yes sj imo backdoor is going to occur interesting to say the least
Action: | Ignore User


Great spelling and grammar.

553. cchsweatherman 10:55 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
545. TheWeatherMan504 6:49 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
It makes it go in the gulf this time with a strong High to the East.

Where do you see the system going into the Gulf? It still maintains a track across Central Cuba and just barely past South Florida, not in the Gulf.


18z run it shows the system passing South Florida and into the Gulf. Why even worry about track. The only thing to watch is development.
Well anywho shear is way up in the GOM and will have to drop before even a strong thunderstorm can form.

From the 850 vort the area of near surface lower pressure is probably well to the SW of the rain. (now showing west of Tampa)
Great spelling and grammar

OK, you guys didn't get it. Ummm, I agree.

If you got some of the junk I do in my inbox...
559. IKE
553. cchsweatherman 5:55 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
545. TheWeatherMan504 6:49 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
It makes it go in the gulf this time with a strong High to the East.

Where do you see the system going into the Gulf? It still maintains a track across Central Cuba and just barely past South Florida, not in the Gulf.


At the end of the run.........
550. IKE 10:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
18Z GFSLink


Why dont you go to the NWS to see the models??Link
557. that darn shear means lots of wave in the GOM....that sux!
atmo....i'm afraid to even ask.......
559. IKE 6:58 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
553. cchsweatherman 5:55 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
545. TheWeatherMan504 6:49 PM EDT on May 21, 2008
It makes it go in the gulf this time with a strong High to the East.

Where do you see the system going into the Gulf? It still maintains a track across Central Cuba and just barely past South Florida, not in the Gulf.

At the end of the run.........


Sorry there TWM504. I jumped the gun before saying that. I made a mistake.
564. IKE
560. TheWeatherMan504 5:58 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
550. IKE 10:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
18Z GFSLink

Why dont you go to the NWS to see the models??Link


That's the same page I got it from.
Im off to the shower, BBL!
558. atmoaggie 10:58 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
Great spelling and grammar

Don't diss it...loved his work in the erectile spam.

The immaturity in this blog is beyond even me.
Now the rain is actually in the gulf now IKE you should see it Friday or so.

You see that?

Then it crosses Fla and comes out near jax (prob still frontal) then moves down into the Bahamas.
it brought me to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_pres_loop.html
570. IKE
567. JFLORIDA 6:02 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
Now the rain is actually in the gulf now IKE you should see it Friday or so.


Yeah...a good chance the next 2 days.
Thanks KOTG, that is what it was! Could not remember the acronym for the life of me!

atmo, it is ok, most would not know a TRS-80 if it jumped up from the dead and bit them in the....

CoCo

Commodore 64

And notice this from the list of computers running the FSU Experimental page...Last line of table

Also take note of the color on that last line and what it means in the legend at bottom :~)
572. IKE
You see that?

I see that now on visible satellite. Blow up of thunderstorms.
I still have a working XT. "512K ought to be enough for anybody"
You get a better view of the track here for those of us the are track-challenged.
Link
Drak, guess you haven't seen some of the spam circulating that has a collection of about 100 random words, all lower case, with no punctuation, etc. I assume it is written that way to get past spam filters looking for certain phrases.
553.

I think he was referring to the E coast low, which is what most should be doing right now imho...
578. IKE
569. TheWeatherMan504 6:03 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
it brought me to http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_pres_loop.html


I see what you mean....I'll edit that post...not sure how that happened.


I think he was referring to the E coast low, which is what most should be doing right now imho...


Oh yeah what ever happened to that??
576. atmoaggie 11:06 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
Drak, guess you haven't seen some of the spam circulating that has a collection of about 100 random words, all lower case, with no punctuation, etc. I assume it is written that way to get past spam filters looking for certain phrases.


I have seen some. I have been wondering why thats happening.
574. don't fret. it'll shape up when the season begins in earnest.
YES COCO is the C64 I had forgotten that! It was better then, esp just after that when you built your own stuff and had to work to get it to actually work.


Look at this, it should start to win out here soon but it is already lower than I expected:


Station 41012 - St. Augustine, FL 40NM ENE of St Augustine, FL


Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in
( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.7 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.6 F

The water temp is a little low but it doesn't matter because the Gulf stream is nearby.
Thank-ya Drak, very kind!

Still, I am not a fan of that time frame though.

Seriously though, you getting any thoughts on the stalled front?
Thats cool IKE.
Having to "double clutch" modify comments again.
Isn't that gulf rain out over the loop current?
587. IKE
585. TheWeatherMan504 6:11 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
Thats cool IKE.


I corrected it...
584. StormJunkie 11:11 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
Thank-ya Drak, very kind!

Still, I am not a fan of that time frame though.

Seriously though, you getting any thoughts on the stalled front?


I like your site because everything is just there easy to find.

Not really thinking much on the front other than what I told you yesterday.
SC2007, GFS now shows it weak, but warm core symmetrical over the Bahamas, and then headed back towards S Fla. See how quickly things can change with these stalled frontal type systems.
Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.62 in
That was the big point of it Drak, and in that regards it is fairly unique I think.

Last night the model was not showing a symmetrical warm core though.
This is the Next Level of Blob chasing, there isn't even a blob yet!!!
593. IKE
590. JFLORIDA 6:13 PM CDT on May 21, 2008
Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.62 in


That's a rather low BP.
If anything this would be a welcome system.
Photobucket
590. we sure could use some rain in Texas...last summer by July 7, we had received an entire year's worth of rainfall. this year...very dry.
For the last couple of months I've been measuring and keeping up with the dollar's value.


The US dollar status with world currencies:


1.00 USD = 10.7624 MXN Peso
1.00 USD = 0.650470 EUR Euro
1.00 USD = 0.990710 CAD Canada
1.00 USD = 7.10600 CNY China Yuan
1.00 USD = 103.157 JPY Japan Yen
1.00 USD = 40.4100 INR India rupees
1.00 USD = 23.8484 RUB Russian Rubies
1.00 USD = 1.02995 CHF Switzerland Francs
1.00 USD = 7.78747 ZAR S. African Rand

As of 3/12/08.

1.00 USD = 10.5337 MXN Peso (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 0.633070 EUR Euro (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 1.02150 CAD Canada (GAIN)
1.00 USD = 7.00650 CNY China Yuan (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 100.975 JPY Japan Yen (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 39.9400 INR India rupees (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 23.4755 RUB Russian Rubies (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 1.00115 CHF Switzerland Francs (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 7.80890 ZAR S. African Rand (GAIN)

As of 4/12/08.

1.00 USD = 10.5071 MXN Peso (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 0.643544 EUR Euro (GAIN) slight
1.00 USD = 1.00259 CAD Canada (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 6.98781 CNY China Yuan (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 104.639 JPY Japan Yen (GAIN)
1.00 USD = 40.6277 INR India rupees (GAIN) slight
1.00 USD = 23.7122 RUB Russian Rubies (GAIN) slight
1.00 USD = 1.04952 CHF Switzerland Francs (GAIN) slight
1.00 USD = 7.52090 ZAR S. African Rand (LOSS)

As of 5/05/08.

1.00 USD = 10.3712 MXN Peso (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 0.633510 EUR Euro (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 0.983900 CAD Canada (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 6.96020 CNY China Yuan (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 103.046 JPY Japan Yen (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 42.7300 INR India rupees (GAIN)
1.00 USD = 23.5650 RUB Russian Rubies (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 1.02573 CHF Switzerland Francs (LOSS)
1.00 USD = 7.72818 ZAR S. African Rand (LOSS)

As of 5/21/08.


I've been doing this monthly for comparison, but I'm going to try to update it now every two weeks. Loss or Gain is from Apri 12 figures. The ONLY gain since March 12 was against the Indian rupee. All other comparative currency shows the dollar still declining, but with slight periods of increase against some currencies.

It will be interesting to see how this next week's trading goes with the additional spike in oil prices, the fed rate-cut a few weeks ago, consumption, production down in Mexico and Russia, US supply down, the Myanmar storm, cane season on us, etc. With the dollar continuing to decline, oil prices can only increase.

Todays, record crude barrel price reached $134.06 with new record prices being set, now, almost daily regularity. One year forecast is at $174 bl, but at these rates, that's liable to come much faster.

Photobucket
Ok, see y'all in a bit ☺
Whoa, when did that complex of storms develop in the gomex. And I really hope this one actually holds together 'til Tampa b/c we've been missing out on everything lately
mlc oil will be 150 by july after the canes it will rise to 220 by christmas
It showed up on the models mostly yesterday in the GOM. Nothing till just a few hours ago in the central gom. shear is dropping to the west so there is a good chance it will drop over the gom.

The models put more faith in an East coast Fla "system" but it shifts and is now more west.

596. FIFY
since about 6 FLWF
JF...

this Link shows that the shear is increasing near the middle of the GOM
LOL pearl!!!
Actually its probably the shear contributing to these lows forming. (two lowest areas are Campeche and off St Augustine -note the velocity changes and directions).

I wonder how patterning of shear and where it occurs (and moves on average)actually factors into hurricane formation.
Yea thats the previous but I think as the lower area of shear drifts east it will calm down.
606. i dunno...the gradient is certainly tight over the central GOM
609. 882MB
Just seen the new GFS 18Z and it continues to show development in the carribean,however I noticed some good news in the new model run for florida,looks like the backdoor coldfront thats going to hit southflorida this weekend will stall over the bahamas and a low pressure trough will move right over the state bringing some beneficial rain.
shear can help energize t-storms and does not hurt subtropical (or hybrid) lows.

Also, today at home and at work I saw hail for the third time since 1980 (it also hailed in 2005) and the strongest wind at KSSI since the March 1993 superstorm with winds sustained 47, gust 66 before the station stopped reporting.
Will in survive 'til it reaches the coast?
today at home and at work I saw hail for the third time

you should ask Floodman about hail...we saw it nearly EVERY year at least once a year in Dallas...
that low next week won't do anything to Florida except reinforce continental dry air down the peninsula.
to be sure the models seem to predict mostly more of the same in the upper levels for the GOM. I'm not too good at understanding the upper level mechanics though and someone should take another look.
Looks like the GFS is about to get put to the test next week. It will be interesting to see how spot on it is this far out.
KEEPEROFTHEGATE 11:03 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
sorry cane we all can not be perfect like you

all hail the great cane addict
the all powerful great forecaster
of tropical systems


Was this comment really neccesary, You need to learn to drop it, I go away and you have to make a sarcastic remark like that. All i said is that shear is too high for tropical development, That wasent an invitation for a rucus in the blog, chill out bud, The season hasent even started.
Also for those interested in why my blog has not been updated since May 16th, reason why is due to my wrist, however June 1st i will begin to update it again daily throughout the hurricane season. (if something should become of major interest before then, i will have an update.)
I'm going to read up on the Walker Circulation and post it on my blog!!!!!
Hmmmm......

Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX


Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.56 in
Pressure Tendency -0.09 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.2 F

Yea chilliam understanding that upper atmospheric stuff seems to be where its at.
621. 882MB
weatherbro im talking about the 2 newest runs from the GFS 12Z and GFS 18Z it shows the low or trough moving back with alot of mouisture that would be good news for all the fires!well good night everybody ill be back tommorrow to see if the GFS is still showing development.
This is crazy! Its been a month with above normal temps so far.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
0522 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2008

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MIAMI INTERNAIONAL AIRPORT...

AT 138 PM, THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
OF 93 DEGREES WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 1981.

622. yeah, the dry air warms up fast! we found out in Texas last summer how moisture can help moderate temperatures. you guys need some rain!
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol
If the shear dies down it is going to be a wild night in the GOM.

Station PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.56 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 F
Added 1997 miami tornado page to site.VIEW HERE
iam chillin cane addick your the one stating nuttin in gom when from what iam lookin at shows something
maybe you should take yur head out of the donkeys behind and look
........how 'bout dem Astros? :)
Wow this is some spectacular lighting photos from cloud 9 tours.They were posted up on mikes blog a few days ago.VIEW HERE

very cool..thanks adrian!
Ahhhh, Pearland, you should know better...speak of the devil and he shall appear!

As far as hail goes, Dallas definitely enjoys it's fair share!
Keeper, Why don't you actually read what people say! I didn't say there was "nothing" in the Gulf Of Mexico, I said the chance for development to occur with that area would not happen due to high levels of wind shear, When did i say there is nothing in the Gulf? Wow what maturity you have.
600. LOL, Keeper! I hear ya!
634. moonlightcowboy 12:16 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
LOL, Keeper! I hear ya!


Please don't fuel the fire, If you read back at my post's i made a simple statement that shear was too high for Tropical Development, Since i said that he has been going on with the insults and immature comments.
Adrian, this



is a cool pic!
Don't worry about it Cane. He was right in a badly sarcastic way.

People DO read your posts and pay close attention to your reasoning about the tropics. Your reports have been spot-on and you know how to analyze the conditions in front of the storm.

If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

Peace out.
I didnt wanted to get into this, but those insults to caneaddict are rather hard. Could u guys show a little more respect despite these differences.
Floodman, what city is that about to get munched... Dallas?
Does anyone know what the process is on the GFS for imput data at 06Z and 18Z? If you look at the number of stations on the 00Z GFS UPA Plots versus the number on the 06Z GFS UPA Plots you see the 06Z is considerably less. Do they then use the same info from 00Z in the 06Z?
637. TexasGulf 12:20 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Don't worry about it Cane. He was right in a badly sarcastic way.

People DO read your posts and pay close attention to your reasoning about the tropics. Your reports have been spot-on and you know how to analyze the conditions in front of the storm.

If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

Peace out.


HAHA ;) thanks!
nrti, that sounds about right. I can not say for sure though. But the 6 & 18 are not the same. Typically it has seemed that the 12 an 00 are more accurate. Just guesses-observations
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...SRN
NEBRASKA AND NRN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS....

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT
AS AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS
IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A
RESULT...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SFC...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 986 TO 988 MB LOW SLOWLY EWD
INTO WRN KS THURSDAY. A DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SFC LOW
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MOIST LAYER WILL EXTEND ABOVE 850 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4500
J/KG RANGE
. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY FAVOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 30
KT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS WCNTRL KS...SRN NEB AND NW OK.
A FEW LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE MID EVENING. MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN AND CNTRL TX/OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A
BROAD 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF
ERN TX...AR AND LA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING EXACTLY
WHERE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

WOW the way its going here i think i may be wakeing up and seeing a high RISK for thursday whats the chs on that???
Hey StormJunkie,So what's going on? Getting ready for hurricane season?
Sheri
If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

(by the way, that was NOT a shot at you, CaneAddict)
643. hahaguy 8:33 PM EDT on May 21, 2008 Hide this comment.
my friend just sent me twc's storm alert music, man that sets the mood for hurricane season lol


...Is it possible I could get a copy? If so then I'll send you my email address. i've always wanted that music
646. pearlandaggie 12:43 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
If it means anything, you have more credibility than at least 50% of the WeatherChannel staff. You have 100% more credibility than their late-night staff.

LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

(by the way, that was NOT a shot at you, CaneAddict)


Oh, I know, They indeed are a bunch of clowns haha!
and i was being nice by only calling them "clowns"! :O
LOL! I could flip a coin to determine my weather predictions and have more credibility than those clowns! :)

That is the result of worrying more about the marketing than the meteorology. TWC ceased to be useful years ago.

Anybody want to invest in a new cable weather channel with the only allowed ads being mute banners at the bottom? One that would actully have enough time to show us some real model output and observational data? Only an idea...
good evening bloggers....what's up in the SW Carrib tonight?
649. pearlandaggie 12:46 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
and i was being nice by only calling them "clowns"! :O


LOL! I do sometimes like to hear Dr. Lyons thoughts on tropical systems though.
sign me up, atmo! i'm a greedy, capitalist pig! :)

actually, i think a project like that could go a LONG way to properly educating the public.
651. HurricaneJosh20 12:48 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
good evening bloggers....what's up in the SW Carrib tonight?
Action: | Ignore User



Nothing much but a good amount of convective activity, The GFS model still insists on development down that way, Also develops an area off the SE US!
LOL! I do sometimes like to hear Dr. Lyons thoughts on tropical systems though.

That is because he is a former Aggie prof...with no marketing background.
#625 -- that low pressure reading is nothing compared to what's inland. It's that intense low over the Rockies. Broomfield CO is 28.86.
thanks Ca....BTw what is up with that GFS, it is just long term or is it for reals?
i didn't know that, Atmoaggie.

whoop!
657. HurricaneJosh20 12:53 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
thanks Ca....BTw what is up with that GFS, it is just long term or is it for reals?
Action: | Ignore User


It's in the long term but, As the time frame nears closer and closer, The chances of it actually panning out gets higher.
Tomorrow looking hairy in the central plains...be a lert if you are there.

hey cane you want you got
its like this ive notice that you shoot down every thing that everyone else has to say in one way or another and your typed responses comes off in a cocky tone but the blog is meant imo as a tool to gather current observations from all posters and by that determine a resonable forecast to depict a pending event thats it nuttin more nuttin less

iam you
you are me
maybe it'll bring rain to us parched ppl in Fl.....can wish can't we? lol
661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 12:56 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
hey cane you want you got
its like this ive notice that you shoot down every thing that everyone else has to say in one way or another and your typed responses comes off in a cocky tone but the blog is meant imo as a tool to gather current observations from all posters and by that determine a resonable forecast to depict a pending event thats it nuttin more nuttin less

iam you
you are me


Let's drop the subject, I am sorry i offended you but you said some very innapropiate rude comments also.
Probability outlook pretty heady, too

(Probablility of severe wx...wind/hail/nados within 25 miles of a point)

662. HurricaneJosh20 12:57 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
maybe it'll bring rain to us parched ppl in Fl.....can wish can't we? lol
Action: | Ignore User


I am also located in Florida, We can wish all day, Lets hope it comes true! My name is also Josh by the way.
Akron CO 33mph sustained and gusts to 56

no thunderstorm nearby, that's just the wind
This is why...strong flow bringing Gulf moisture-a-plenty to the dry line...

668. GBlet
Taz, what a mouthful! I live in Great Bend,Ks. I can also tell that it's coming too.
Taz, what a mouthful! I live in Great Bend,Ks. I can also tell that it's coming too

I would leave the WX radio on if I were you.
671. GBlet
SSSHHH, I'm busy painting the bullseye!!!
it is done
There is occasional tropical or sub-tropical development in the W-Caribbean that occurs with the arrival of the Florida "rainy season". It takes a soaking to start the cycle of daily afternoon rains here and it usually comes from the south. Hopefully that will put an end to all the "muckfire" smoke here.
See the 18UTC GFs shows a very interesting scenario occuring in Florida as it seems a weak warm-core surface low will form in the Bahamas off the backdoor cold front and move into south-central Florida late Sunday into Monday then following with a tropical storm (maybe even weak Cat. 1 hurricane) moving over the Bahamas and then coming back over South Florida by the following week. Would be terrific news for the entire state.
675. GBlet
Atmo, I'm ready!!! I'm from TX. 1979 will forever be with me. Greensberg last year scared the crap out of me.
Experimental thunderstorm probability almost certain...

Note that this only covers through 12 Z tomorrow (7am CDT)
Link
...I'm in. Will this help?

Heck, yeah it will. Can you email it to me? ;-)
For once there is no rain in the forecast here.
There is a very large low pressure system by the Philippians, it probably won't develop. 10 days till hurricane season. Each season and each storm has it's own personality. A new season is like meeting a new person.
i may want to book mark this site

Link
very good taz
lift inflow rtn flow combine with strong dynamics promotes good chances of severe weather
a wide spread high impacting event for the next couple of days taz
Just an observation or two...never totally discount features below 10N. I have been watching a tropical wave all day just off the coast of africa, that has been associated with cyclonic turning along its axis just around 7N. Showers and thunderstorms have diminsh tonight and development is not expected, but it was rather interesting how we think that storms cannot aquire turning below 10N. Not normal but at the same time not impossible.

Folks, I off to bed, Some reason i am very exhausted! Tomorrow looks to be very interesting with Jeff's thoughts on the season and NOAA's! Night all!

atmoaggie, you will have to slide by my house and pick that cash up ;) LOL!

Night!
you may want to change your yellow to red taz
The shear in SW Kansas is setup just right for them things...you know what I mean



Dang, the size of this pic really ruined the important data to be garnered from it. I forget, what is the html for pic size?
West Caribbean shear

Maybe JFlorida and Kepper were onto something with the disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico as convection has continued to increase across the region. If this maintains itself, South and Central Florida may get some late thunderstorms that could spark off.
Just wanted to post this. There has been a significant increase in potential for tropical development throughout the basin.
Dang, the size of this pic really ruined the important data to be garnered from it. I forget, what is the html for pic size?

people can just right-click and click on "View Image" to see the pic better, then hit the back button.

i don't find it to be much of an issue if i do that.

(these instructions are for FireFox users)


why is this map so different... i find this more reliable though that pinpoint the area with best tc potential
Weird, cchs...this version hasn't. Wonder whom to believe now.

Dang HGW beat me to it.
Fixn 2 get ugly
If one just links the image. All is well.

I dropped a pen anyone seen it?
Its a Bic.
Blue,...Clear plastic.
688. just nit-picking (not trying to be an arse), but i'm not sure probabilities <1% constitute a "significant" increase. look at the area east of Maryland...not exactly in the MDR.
Fixn 2 get ugly

For whom? 767s going west?
I hate a Headwind at 34K.

My arms Ice up sometimes too.
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery,Atlantic Basin Link
674...Holy Mackerel, another one jumps on board with the fabled E Coast low :~)

cchs, imvho that stalled front will be the most interesting feature over the next 5 days or so.

Ok, I am off for the night. See y'all tomorrow!

CC, the things you have mentioned all point towards the onset of the rainy season here. Among other things, It seems that the start of the FL (peninsula) rainy season often coincides with strong storms moving southward through AL/GA towards the Gulf Coast. That happened yesterday.
I hate a Headwind at 34K.

My arms Ice up sometimes too.


Knew you couldn't resist that. Just what I thought you might say.
alright, everyone! Stormjunkie's gone...now you can resume talking about him!

LOL

:)

'night SJ
I'm out. 3 year-old and 18-month-old a-calling.

Later, SJ...PlandAg, everyone.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

hehe...

Night atmo

Night pearland

:~)
later Atmo...i'll be looking for my copy of that BOROphyll map!
Sj...ARe you gone?
i'm out too, folks...have a good evening
I'll tell ya what, the weather can do whatever it wants in the midwest tomorrow, but early Friday I'm driving to St Louis, so I'm putting in an order for blue skies
I'm in Atlanta tonight..no hurricane worries here....
Before i hit the bed, I want to post a very amazing video of how quick Hurricane Katrina EXPLODED over the loop eddy current! Also how fast it grew in size...in a matter of days.

Almost press

So how is Hotlanta?

Mail for you
it ain't the Lowcountry SJ...
Night folks!
Nothings the LC press!
poppers over s ga again
714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:45 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
poppers over s ga again


Hey man, Have a good night, Sorry about the little agrument today, We both were wrong...I have just had some issues lately and should have no been so quick to fly off the handle over a comment. No hard feelings, Look forward to your humor this season and your contribution. Night all, SJ,atmoaggie, pearl, drak, all4, EVERYONE!
Night CA, see ya tomorrow

Ok, now y'all can start talking about me again :~)

Night everyone
night sj
nice blow up over s texas tex mex border tornadic
David Cook won AI fyi
Life cycle of Katrina GOM (~33MB) Link


* Close-up of Eye (~33 MB)Link

I thought David Archuletta was going to win oh well
In 3 hours Ill be watching Indiana Jones.

Large coke and a Clark Bar too.
nice links of Katrina pat
I wonder what NOAA's numbers will be tommorow on their outlook?
723. JFV 2:10 AM GMT on May 22, 2008
Me too, anyways, Drak what are your thoughts this evening on the potential carib system for next week my cyber friend?


I don't know really. Really need more models to jump on board.
Powerful Imagery for sure stormhank.
Im thinking the numbers tomm. from NOAA n Dr M. will prob average near the 13-15 named 7-9 hurricanes and 3-4 major. category. but thats just my guess.
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Conditions at 42056 as of
0150 GMT on 05/22/2008

We've reached the magic number....
Evening everybody. Just popping in for a couple. Still no rain in Nassau, Bahamas today, though it did do a practice (dry run :o) of the 3 p. m. downpour. In other words, it clouded up nicely, but we didn't get a drop. So it was just another really hot day. I expect we will get a downpour some time in the next 3 - 6 days, since it seems the moisture content in the air has really increased. In a minute I'll try posting a pic of the non-raining clouds . . .
Gidday everyone... looking at the pic of Katrina, sdhe exploded over 24 hours.
2005 had some storms that bombed out. Katrina wasn't the only one.
Hey, Baha! Check out this weak high parked out there well east of Bermuda.

Photobucket
695. atmoaggie 9:29 PM
RE: 692
For whom? 767s going west?
The jokes on me, I guess. Are you saying that graphic, and the others linked to it, say nothing about the potential for severe weather?
Yeah, MLC, I was just looking at that. What a setup! I dunno what to think about that. It's been hanging about, that low, and variably further east and west, for about 7 - 10 days now. I'm thinking that's just GREAT for steering things around to the NW Bahamas and east US coast. :o(
Today's Nassau weather:

Yesterday's weather:

Hope not, Baha! Hopefully, we'll get some good shear, a bunch of sand storms - and things we'll just dissolve! Ugh!
If one could be sure we'd get the fishies, one wouldn't mind so much. But sometimes what LOOKS like a fish storms ends up tagging us.
Baha, Pottery and I were chin-wagging back-n-forth last night about the ITCZ. It stills seems low, especially in the wATL and we primarily attributed that to late warming SST's. It's still running kind of low, now, too. Her's my question: If these storms track t thru the ITCZ like that, I know they have trouble with coriolis; but, as it gets slightly higher, where do you guess we could see any developing storm first make a move north?

Ivan and I have speculated that we might see some cyclogenesis origin like Dennis. Any thoughts?


mlc, that low ITCZ is one reason I have been reluctant to endorse the idea of an early start to the season. I don't think we are going to see much action, serious or otherwise, before mid-July or even early August. The SSTs are part of that reasoning.
BTW, this is the Dennis I think about when u say Dennis:



This is the one that hit just before Floyd. Looking at the map now, I can visualize the location of the High, and then how the ridge that pushed Floyd into the NW Bahamas just pushed out enough for us to get the whammo. Dennis was like a foreshadowing, an omen.
Yeah, I guess you would, lol. Hey, I've found some new links, one of which is centered on the Bahamas. See if you've seen this one before:

HNWS Here's the one of the Bahamas:

Thanks for the link, MLC. I hadn't seen that particular site before . . .
Hmmm. . . . looking at that makes me think we might even get a drop or two by Friday . . . however, unless that high pressure ridge backs off seriously, most of the Bahamas as well as SFL will hardly get wet.

I'm assuming, BTW, that the goldish yellow green blot in the Gulf is the low that is supposed to head this way by Friday . . .
Yeah, that's the one I was thinking about.

Rain would be great.
I think I read a post today that said Key West was like 41 days, now, without a drop.
Looking at the sfc map, and say we had some thing out of the ITCZ just east of Pottery, where do you think we'd see a track based on that high position (of course I know steering would be a factor); but, just based on the high position?
Actually we haven't been that bad this spring. I think we had rain for most of April - nothing heavy, but some light to moderate showers, mainly at night, every week. We've been dry for about 2 1/2 weeks or so.
Based on that map on 750? If you had a break in the ridge like that, u might end up with something across eastern Hispaniola, western PR. Most of the lesser Antilles would get something. After that, where it ended up would be dependent on whether that little low was still there.
Anyway, I'm headed out. I've an early day tomorrow; I should have hit the sack an hour ago . . . g'night!
Gotcha, so then, a high positioned like that looks as if it ups the odds for you and the Carolinas and hopefully fish? Sound about right?
Have a good sleep, Baha!
HOT /COLD spot in the gulf. Some really high cloud tops besides the shear. 2


Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX


Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )

Thats one of the lowest non storm pressure readings I've seen in the GOM.
there looks to be a surface low trying to form just south of La (look at the different heights)

On the Sat - Rock the loop and zoom in to just WSW of the storm activity central GOM - see the swirl?
Is anyone up still?

If so zoom in on the WunderSAT in the GOM and see the white area? Cold Top!
I'm up JFL and I'm am ecstatic to know it will be raining all day. And how tropical does this thing look! If a low happens to form (like you think it's doing) this may have a chance to develop after it moves into the ATL.... do you think this is the system the models have been picking up on?
yes it is I think. But I dont think tropical development is as much a factor as contributing conditions (the right shear and such) are for this one. Who knows what it will do - at least bring some rain I hope.
Well, the even the radar at long-range is completely filled with rain... and the cold tops you were referring to in the central gulf are moving right toward us.... We should get sufficient rain today
I'm on the blog JF.

I looked at the sat ya posted. I do see the small vort you referred to.
Wow it feels awful outside! It's 80 degrees with really light rain and absolutely no breeze. At least it's finally raining- I can't complain about that.
morning everyone...

that GOM system looks impressive...is it moving due east or what?

What part of Florida is gonna get the rain?
Pensacola is about where it should come ashore I would think.

Wow - look at this, impressive blow up.
thanks jflorida
It must be some type of weird advection thing with surface winds coming from the south and blowing it up- so to speak. I think it was Alberto, but it reminds me of that storm the way the shear is and all.

Theres not enough here though for anything resembling that however but I wonder if, in a time of increased shear more hybrid systems will form.
Good morning and what is going on in the gulf
An upgrade to a categorial high risk is possible for this afternoon. The moderate risk area currently includes most of West Kansas. If the SPC were to raise the probability of hail as they mention they may in the latest outlook, a high risk will be issued. It's interesting that they mention the extent of storm coverage as a problem.

STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF MEAN FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE PROVIDES SOME STORM-SCALE
UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDING GREATER SIGNIFICANT HAIL/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ATTM.


Looking at the NAM out 84 hours it appears something may attempt to develop out of this once it emerges off the east coast. The GFS also seems to be hinting at something.
The GFS cyclone phase diagram would indicate so; and environmental conditions are not very favorable for antthing but. Nevertheless this may need to be watched.
They both put it coming ashore near Panama City in about 10-15 hrs.

Shear seems to be changing near it, but is still very high in the GOM.
778. IKE
0Z ECMWF...still has an east PAC tropical system crossing over into the Caribbean......

Link
779. IKE
06Z GFS is still on board with a Caribbean system........

Link
That looks like a real one. It seems to be staying together as it becomes closer too.


the pressure is still dropping in the western gulf, this is one of the lowest non front, non storm ive seen.

Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas


Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.50 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Jim Cramer just said on a morning show 5$ a gallon in six wks. Woo have a nice day.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI Link
Crude oil finished at 134 dollars a barrel today
Good morning all! See that the 06UTC GFS continues with tropical development in the Caribbean for next week while it has backed off the East Coast low (for now). I will be waiting for the NOAA and Dr. Masters to post their predictions on the upcoming hurricane season before I update my Tropical Update today.
On the news now business station the mkt for fuel is not priced for a major hurricane hit this yr. So what will be the price if we get another major hit?
will any land area be affected by the GOM storm or carribean or off the coast of africa?
For anyone who lives in South Florida or has ever watched Channel 10 News at night, you may know who Dwight Lauderdale is. For the past 32 years, he has become a legendary journalist and news anchor and has been an outstanding citizen. Known for his passion for reporting, he has become a very respected journalist by his colleagues. Well, last night, he signed off the air for the last time as his retirement begins today.
Good Morning Folks.......I was tied up with work all day yesterday, took a look at the Sat Loops this AM, and, looks like I'm going to get some rain up here in the Florida Panhandle.......What's the deal with this ominous looking low, and, is this the low the models were hinting at a few days ago? (actually I'm thrilled cause I need the rain for my lawn)...
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Northern Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.) GOES-12, 3 channels Link

Low Cloud Product,Click to ENlarge Link
790. HouseofGryffindor 8:19 AM EDT on May 22, 2008
What is that in the gulf? It looks pretty impressive. Lots of rain today it looks like for the area.


Just finished looking at satellite loops, consulting QuikSCAT, and completing some simple analysis for this disturbance. If there is any circulation with this disturbance, it does not exist at the surface, but rather in the mid-levels. Convection has become quite impressive, but this is due to excellent upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence. Shear remains very high over the feature, which will not allow for tropical development, but once this does come ashore in the Florida Panhandle, there could be some significant severe weather. By severe weather, I don't mean tornadoes since you don't have multi-directional shear occuring, but large hail, strong wind gusts, and very heavy rainfall are all hazards for the Florida Panhandle and Southern Georgia as this all comes overland.
I'm betting the blob goes east of us FWB/Destin. But we could use the rain.
794. cchsweatherman 8:31 AM EDT on May 22, 2008

Thanks....I'll post some local NWS info on it in a little but, it is another impressive "blob" to look at today; if it were mid-June and the shear levels were lower in the Gulf this blob "coulda been somebody".......
The Big Pic frontal Map Link
798. Patrap 8:39 AM EDT on May 22, 2008

Right Pat, here's the local NWS take:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE TRI-STATE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
Yeppars,rain and T-storms are welcome for many today and tonight and tomorrow.
Just took a look at the latest sounding data from Tallahassee. There is an insanely high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) value nearing 3500 at the surface. This is very favorable for severe weather.
SPC convective outlook thru the next 8 days Link
A Hook echo composite image with Bats on radar too Link
A lil surface rotation as the Low winds up and slowly moves North.

NEXRAD Radar
Mobile Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI Link
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link

NEXRAD Radar
Mobile Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Tops to 56K Link

801. cchsweatherman 8:46 AM EDT on May 22, 2008 Just took a look at the latest sounding data from Tallahassee. There is an insanely high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) value nearing 3500 at the surface. This is very favorable for severe weather.

I'm here and will let you know how "bad" it gets; however, spotter activation has not been requested at this time by Tally NWS so I suspect that it will be a "fluid" situation going into the afternoon/eveing hours in terms of potential instability...Since it is already overcast right now, daytime heating may not be as big of an issue.....Guess it boils down to the timing of low, but, it appears to be moving pretty quickly right now to the NE..
Surface Based CAPE:

Photobucket



Most Unstable CAPE:

Photobucket
The SPC is not highliting any severe risk areas in FL or the SE regarding this shortwave at the present time.
This is being handled through the local HWO's.

Maybe at the 12:30 update they will. But not now.
what do you guys think about the "thing" near south florida june 1st and 2nd cause im going on a cruise on that date around their so give me your input
the GFS model
Call the Cruise Line...or

Check your local Forecast by inserting your Zip in the Box at the top left of this and every wu-page.

Buoy 42040.
I found a sweet spot GSM..LOL
Conditions at 42040 as of
(6:50 am CDT)
1150 GMT on 05/22/2008:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 F
no Gale,no sale..
I give Indiana Jones an "8" from last Night.
Patrap,
Do you think Indiana Jones will be better in theater or DVD? Would you see it again?
818. kingy
Interesting views from Masters on the possibility of fewer quantity of canes but more stronger ones. This will not be good for the GOM drill rigs nor the insurance companies. Remember that the cat 1 storms are 'relatively' manageable. The financial damage by the cat 4 and cat 5 hurricanes is disproportionately higher. A strong cat 4/5 coming ashore near a major city/port brings with it catastrophic personal as well as financial cost. So in some ways we would be forgiven from drawing little comfort from this interesting and well written blog.
Nothing beats a LucasFilm in the Theater.
Yes Id go again.
PATRAP-Those are some cool links you posted,I wonder if it was raining bats in texas?
WOW LINK to gfs 288 hrs
look at that low off florida!
Good AM - bit too rainy here for me to surf b/4 work but for those GOMEX surfers - there is 1-2ft ridable swell at south facing beaches(although IMHO yesterday was barely ridable & more like being in a washing machine - but here on the GOMEX you take whatever you get) Should also be good Friday due to enough of a South Fetch by Cuba. Winds go light tomorrow (and after Thursdays wind & slight rip-tide) that's going to be my choice
Welcome to the Weather Underground's new Climate Change page!
We're just getting started, so keep checking back over the next few months for new additions.
Link
Surf,
In Brevard County it is 0-1 flat not much to ride on by Cocoa.
825. IKE
From CNN...

"Traders say that even though you're already paying for the hurricane season, the price could spike to $6 a gallon if catastrophe strikes."
Based on weather choice of workout will be running - love it in the light rain here in sarasota, hope the waves are good tomorrow and the wind lays down. I am "battered" from yesterday's attempt, but it was sweet to get wet w/out a wetsuit.

I am so happy to have a cloudy rainy day -- horses and I will just relax, get groomed, and watch the grass grow. Many workers were out at the polo club yesterday working on their pastures, priming them for this rain. Natural Water holes are beginning to fill and aren't bone dry.
China says death toll in quake more than 51,000 - full story.

BEICHUAN, China - China said the death toll from last week's powerful earthquake jumped to more than 51,000, as it appealed Thursday for millions of tents to shelter homeless survivors. The confirmed number of dead rose to 51,151 - a jump of almost 10,000 from the day before - Cabinet spokesman Guo Weimin told a news conference. Another 29,328 people remained missing and nearly 300,000 were hurt in the May 12 quake centered in Sichuan province, he said.

The disaster also left 5 million people homeless and leveled more than 80 percent of the buildings in some remote towns and villages areas near the epicenter. In bigger cities whole apartment blocks collapsed or are now too dangerous to live in because of damage and worries about aftershocks. "We need more than 3.3 million tents," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters, adding that 400,000 tents have already been delivered. It was the second call for tents from China in recent days.

"We hope and welcome international assistance in this regard. We hope the international community can give priority in providing tents," he said.


Florida looks like your run of the mill Florida summer thunderstorms today.


However, the conditions are getting very interesting in Kansas...
Good morning all, what's new?
830. MTJax
CCH are you expecing any flooding areas in FL over the next 72 hrs? The QPF shows less than 3 inches in most places but you stated you expect more than that.
Good morning,

Rain, rain, rain,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,awwwwwwwwwww!
What's going on with the blog...? Anyone else having problems?
MTJax,
That is very heavy rainfall like I had stated. There could be some localized flooding where drainage is poor and where the heaviest rainfall occurs.
834. GBlet
Good morning everyone! Does anybody have some input for me today? I live in Great Bend, Ks. Dead center of the state. There is definately a strange feeling in the air here today.
Precipitable Water:

Photobucket
Yeah GBlet.....you're probably going to see some rough weather later this afternoon and tonight.
837. GBlet
I feel like Chicken Little today, my husband thinks I'm some sort of weather fanatic. I have warned all of my friends to stay alert today. I just hope they pay attention.
Your area is under the gun for the forseeable future GBlet.
Sorry to say....See my blog for more info.
I live in Great Bend, Ks. Dead center of the state. There is definately a strange feeling in the air here today.


No offence but I would have used a better word in this situation.....
Good morning JFV. Right now, I'm anxiously awaiting the NOAA Hurricane Season Preview as well as Dr. Master's own preview on the upcoming season.

Based upon the past four or five GFS model runs, it appears that IF this potential Western Caribbean storm does form, it would take a track that would target South Florida by the beginning of June. It seems to offer great hope for South and Central Floridians as it keeps the system weak (of course the models are never certain and can never tell what the true intensity of a system will be, especially this far in advance) and forecasts a prolonged soaking rainfall event. Just based upon the GFS model, I would think that whatever system would form would come as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. But that of course is IF this system develops. But, the GFS may have begun gathering some support as the European model develops a East Pacific system that then crosses Central America into the Western Caribbean and the latest CMC 850 vorticity model displays a clearly tropical system moving up into Panama before the model ends.
Numbers for nothing.
Seasonal forecasts cant say when or where.

I like the chicken Bones and a roll of the dice method on a Left sided sidewalk on Cloudy day for mine.

But I dont publish it.

It scares people.



845. GBlet
I will be a kind Texan today and leave that one alone. Vort, thanks for the info. Good morning cch and patrap. I was very glad to hear you are no longer a prisoner of Fema Pat! Rest assured TY,I will be back on blog tomorrow.
I like the chicken Bones



Only you Pat. lol
845. GBlet


Be safe today and always GBlet. Turn on your weather radio!
Don't get me wrong, I respect the NHC very much - in fact, I'll be visiting the NHC tomorrow afternoon to meet with one of the meteorologists there - but I find these predictions to be utterly absurd. Just look at the ranges. Based upon those ranges, it can be anywhere between an average season to well-above average season. That doesn't help much. Anybody could get those numbers. Even more telling is the difference between the two predicted ACE values; 110%. Wow!
so global warming leads to increased wind shear.. which leads to less frequent hurricanes.. so does global warming lead to decreased tropical SSTs because of the increased wind shear? lol sounds kinda ironic.. warming leads to cooling... man this global warming theory can be fit for any theory.
Tyvm GBlet..them FEMA Folks were tough,But we made it thru without to many nights in the Box..well almost.

But Carl Liked Gumbo,,and I made a Lot of Gumbo.Gulfscotsman had to eat a Bunch of them Eggs one day though. Link
851. GBlet
Thanks TY, but am stuck in of all places, a liquor store all day today. I will be bugging out if need be, cuz you can't pay me enough to lock myself in a box of glass and ride out a storm!
Think of the 30 year Malt Surrounding you right now. Im Jealous.
Could someone please post a pic of Carib or GOM for me? Thanks!
Good morning everyone. Going camping in N FL tomorrow just north of tampa. When does it look like the rain will clear out in that area?? Thanx!!
851. GBlet


I'd trade places wid ya if I could git there.
856. GBlet
Don't feel that way Pat, nothing here over 12yr. Farmers don't go for that fancy crap.
Here you go AWeatherLover.
858. GBlet
Speaking of the farmers, we sure don't need this today. Right now we are looking at upwards at 54 to 60 bushels an acre for the wheat crop that should be about ready to come out of the fields in a few weeks. I would sure like to see the farmers win over the weather this year.
Thanks cchs!
Just to update you on the latest with the new 12z GFS coming out right now, through 60 hours it has come back on board with a weak East Coast system.
cchs are you still in school or what? Im just wondering because I see you posting 24/7 and am wondering how you do it lol...

...also can you post a link to the models so I can see this week system you are talking about? I'd welcome a strong tropical or even minimal cat 1, we need that rain!!!



NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
As With Any Season, Preparation is Essential

May 22, 2008
Link

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. The prediction was issued at a news conference called to urge residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the onset of hurricane season, which begins June 1.

Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens, said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.




861. MasterForecaster 12:04 PM EDT on May 22, 2008
cchs are you still in school or what? Im just wondering because I see you posting 24/7 and am wondering how you do it lol...

...also can you post a link to the models so I can see this week system you are talking about? I'd welcome a strong tropical or even minimal cat 1, we need that rain!!!


FYI I just completed my first year at BCC about two weeks ago, so yes I'm out of school. Besides that, I'm not scheduled to work all week until Saturday, so that is why it may seem that I'm on 24/7, but I'm really not.

But, as per the second question, I'm waiting for the 12z GFS to finish running. Thus far it has only gotten up to 102 hours out.
The Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.

The climate patterns expected during this years hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).
This question is for someone more technologically advanced then I am - I was reading the blog on my blackberry this morning, but couldn't figure out how to refresh the screen. Anyone know how to do this?

Thanks
Now the GFS starts developing the system within five days as it begins forming at 108 hours out (or 4.5 days).
GFS Model 108 HRS
Thanks cchs your information is always appreciated. I hear BCC is a nice place I might look at FAU or FIU I hear they have great weather related programs.

It'd be weird to have a tropical system threaten us at the END of school instead of the beggining...we'll chat later about that possible system developing but now its off to American History X.
863. cchsweatherman 12:10 PM EDT on May 22, 2008 Besides that, I'm not scheduled to work all week until Saturday, so that is why it may seem that I'm on 24/7

But, make sure to take a break every now and then and to squeeze in some food and a shower before Saturday....This blog can become rather addicting....Lol
869. AndyN
I thought this was particularly interesting in the NOAA 2008 Hurricane Season outlook:

Presently, La Niña is indicated by below average sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. La Niña is dominating the atmospheric convection and low-level winds in these regions as well, with suppressed convection over the central and eastern Pacific and enhanced convection over the western Pacific. There has been a tremendous tropics-wide response in the upper-level (200-hPa) atmospheric winds to this anomalous convection, with easterly anomalies extending across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and northern Africa. If these anomalies persist through the summer, they would reinforce the multi-decadal signal and increase the probability of an above-normal and even hyperactive season.

In the latest ENSO Diagnostics Discussion released 8 May 2008, NOAA forecasters stated that La Niña has weakened since February, and that a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is possible during June-July just prior to the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. This evolution is typical for La Niña, which often dissipates during the late spring or summer.

There is considerable spread and uncertainty among the climate models regarding how strong the La Niña influence will be on the Atlantic hurricane season. Most models are predicting ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during the summer, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific between -0.5oC to 0.5oC. However, most of these models have historically shown little-to-no skill at this time of the year.

Historically, we have almost never (only once in 100 years) seen a La Niña transition from its current present strength to an El Niño by ASO. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the current La Niña patterns of tropical convection and winds will persist and affect the hurricane season, even if La Niña dissipates.

868. weathermanwannabe 12:30 PM EDT on May 22, 2008
863. cchsweatherman 12:10 PM EDT on May 22, 2008 Besides that, I'm not scheduled to work all week until Saturday, so that is why it may seem that I'm on 24/7

But, make sure to take a break every now and then and to squeeze in some food and a shower before Saturday....This blog can become rather addicting....Lol


I've actually been diagnosed by a psychiatrist with OCD for weather. I can't get over the urge and fascination no matter how hard I try, but I'm disciplined enough not to allow it to take control of my life. FYI I took a shower this morning after my brother woke me up for a good reason; he got a 1400 out of 1600 on his SAT. Highest I ever got was a 1320.

870. cchsweatherman 12:35 PM EDT on May 22, 2008........Cool; looks like the Florida "blob" is rapidly losing it's convection so it does not seem like we will get as much rain as some were hoping for.....
Just an update on the latest GFS model output, through 216 hours, the GFS continues it on the same path and development as in the previous five runs. Still rather lopsided looking system. At the 216 hour, the model has it still far from South Florida, but nearing Western Cuba (about 150 miles to the south).
Raining here in Ocala-we really need it. Looks like the blob in the SW caribbean is moving north for a sneak attack on Florida!
GFS Model 276 Hours Out
875. IKE
Entire 12Z GFS model run....Link

Is it gonna happen? I say yes.......
This is from Noaa's outlook regarding SSTs

In contrast, SSTs over the central and western MDR were below average during the last several months in association with the combination of La Niña and a persistent pattern of anomalous northeasterly and easterly surface winds. This wind pattern recently ended, and the SSTs quickly returned toward normal in these regions. Consistent with past La Niña episodes, and with the ongoing tropical multi-decadal signal, above-average temperatures are expected to return in the central and western MDR as the summer progresses.
One thing I've never heard anyone discuss is the effect the relentless widening of the Atlantic Ocean might/should have on frequency of tropical systems. As I understand it, the Atlantic Rift is broadening the Atlantic by an inch a year, and while that doesn't sound like much, for an ocean that stretches pole to pole, a lot of water has to be added to fill that extra "real estate" - a column one inch wide but thousands of feet deep and thousands of miles long.
879. AndyN
Could be a scary year weather456
IKE and 456,

Could you offer your thoughts on the latest GFS model? What I have now seen for the last five runs that I had not seen before is remarkable consistency in the track of the system and the intensity (although we all know all to well that all models tend to underestimate the intensity of systems down the road). The whole setup looks quite reasonable considering the current environmental conditions and climatology. Starting to lean more towards believing the model considering all the action around Panama and Costa Rica as well as favorable wind shear throughout the Caribbean.
880. cchsweatherman 1:00 PM AST on May 22, 2008

Let me look at the latest run
Entire 12Z GFS model run....Link

Is it gonna happen? I say yes.......

Ike,
Or it will be one of the most forcasted syatems to not happen, guess we'll see.
OMG!!! Rain is about to arrive in my neighborhood for the first time in about five weeks! It may not be much, but we'll take it.
Let's see if by Saturday the GFS still hangs onto this.
I feel so doomed..Doomed I say

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
875. IKE 12:52 PM EDT on May 22, 2008

Hey Ike; how have you been....I for one am quite upset right now that the bulk of the rain is missing us up here in North Florida...Have you gotten any over in Defuniak?...Tallahasse has been overcast but bone dry this morning.......
879. AndyN 12:58 PM AST on May 22, 2008
Could be a scary year weather456


That is the point some have been stressing on for the past months. SSTs in April and May are not an indicator of SSTs in September and August.
890. IKE
887. weathermanwannabe 12:06 PM CDT on May 22, 2008
875. IKE 12:52 PM EDT on May 22, 2008

Hey Ike; how have you been....I for one am quite upset right now that the bulk of the rain is missing us up here in North Florida...Have you gotten any over in Defuniak?...Tallahasse has been overcast but bone dry this morning.......


Doing OK...no rain so far...I noticed yesterday both the NAM and GFS had the precip taking a turn right as it approached the Florida panhandle...sure enuff, that's what is happening.
891. IKE
880. cchsweatherman 12:00 PM CDT on May 22, 2008
IKE and 456,

Could you offer your thoughts on the latest GFS model? What I have now seen for the last five runs that I had not seen before is remarkable consistency in the track of the system and the intensity (although we all know all to well that all models tend to underestimate the intensity of systems down the road). The whole setup looks quite reasonable considering the current environmental conditions and climatology. Starting to lean more towards believing the model considering all the action around Panama and Costa Rica as well as favorable wind shear throughout the Caribbean.


I believe in the GFS. It's been consistent with this...I think it's gonna happen...if I'm wrong serve me some crow. Plus the ECMWF is trending toward the GFS...time will tell.
Someone say rotation?
893. 882MB
Hey everybody, Just seen the new GFS 12Z and it continues to show a well defined low pressure system forming in the SW CARRIBEAN,only time will tell,im waiting on the new run of the ECMWF and CMC models.
Indiana Jones Premiere Gets a 8.5 from me.

The Hot Dog got a 9.5.Twas a tad lukewarmish.
I think I need some cycloactive drugs... LOL
this blog is becoming more and more addictive as H-season approaches.
880. cchsweatherman 1:00 PM AST on May 22, 2008

Formation continues to be consistent and the track is much more straight-forward that 24 hrs ago. I also notice, the system is moving very slowly early in the cycle, spending much more time in the Western Caribbean Sea. There is a possible reason for that. Surface ridging continues to project far across the Western Atlantic and across the SE USA and Gulf. The system only begins moving faster when an upper trough dips across the area and pulls the system more north and east. In the near term, the confidence of something developing in one week is moderate. MJO is expected to enhance convection over the area soon and zonal shear is expected to remain favorable for atleast the development of a tropical depression.
897. IKE
Here's the 12Z CMC....forms an east-PAC storm in 144 hours...Link
Ghosts in the Machine...Or the trend?

UNYSIS GFSx Day-10 June 1 Link
I still don't like the location in which this storm forms. The likelihood of a storm to form that close to Panama and then move north is so low that I can't jump on board. I still say its either a Pacific storm or no storm.
Here is the Tropical Update I just posted on my website.

We are now only days away from the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season and it appears the entire Tropical Atlantic has started showing signs of that. Right now, wind shear (upper-level winds that can "shear" the tops right off thunderstorms) remains relatively low for this time in the year, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to rise across the entire basin and overall, is warmer than average (with the exception of the Central Atlantic), and there has been more frequent and progressively more impressive tropical waves coming off Africa.

But, despite all these favorable factors right now, there is no tropical development occuring. There is a rather strong mid-level disturbance moving into Northern Florida, but there will be no tropical development as this disturbance will interact with a front and produce some heavy rains in northern Florida and southern Georgia over the next three days.

Now, the major headline in the tropics is something that isn't even out there. According to a few computer models, there will be a developing tropical system in the Southwest Caribbean by late this weekend into early next week. Based upon these models, the system would travel northward and arrive in South Florida during the first few days of June. There has been remarkable consistency with the long-range models on this and now, the shorter-range models also hint at development occuring in the area. But, there is no need to get excited or panic as the system that would cause this to form hasn't even developed yet, but the models need to be taken into consideration. Stay tuned to further updates as the supposed event comes closer.
901. 882MB
Weather456, do you have any images of how the MJO will look in a week or 2
There only Models.
When we start seeing some consensus among the ensembles.
Then we give more interest,least for me.

The seasonal Tropics (reg.Patent.Pending)...are arriving on schedule.



The tropics today

updates are in the comment section
Current ENSO forecast from AMO:

CURRENT STATUS as at 21st May 2008
Next update expected by 4th June 2008 (two weeks after this update).

Summary: Pacific climate patterns generally neutral

Pacific climate patterns remain generally neutral, although some aspects of the 2007/08 La Niña persist. Lingering La Niña signals include the continued presence of cooler than average water on the equator near the date-line, accompanied by reduced cloud and, in the first few weeks of May, enhanced Trade Winds.

Overall though, the tropical Pacific has been warming gradually during the past few months, with ocean temperatures now near-normal in central and eastern areas. In addition, the Trade Winds have decreased to near-normal levels in the western half of the Pacific and, confirming the return to neutral conditions, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is about zero for the past 30 days.

Computer model predictions show Pacific temperatures continuing to gradually increase over the next two seasons, but remaining near-average. The models indicate a low chance of either a stronger warming to El Niño levels or a re-intensification of La Niña conditions during 2008.

906. 882MB
weather456 that is from november.
906. 882MB 1:33 PM AST on May 22, 2008
weather456 that is from november.


That was a mistake...Now the one below....look at the time frame of the possible disturbance, that is May 29-June 5

LINK
909. 882MB
Thanks weather456, Ill be back later to see the new ECMWF 12UTC model run.
Wow, if I'm analyzing correctly I would say that the low in the gomex should actually move more e ward than ne ward and affect Tampa.... The storm track feature on the WU radar is showing a few hail cells which should move onshore n of Tampa in the next 4 hours.
It seems "global warming" is used to explain a lot of things. More hurricanes, less hurricanes, even global cooling. Is it just possible that no one really knows what is going on?
GOM GOES-12 Ch-3 WV Loop Link

Wow, if I'm analyzing correctly

You must be thinking Ne..and East
2004

2008

Most conditions are expected to be the same except for reduce wind shear from La-Nina-Neutral in 2008.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE
REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND A CLEAR
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS TURNING IS LOW
LATITUDE CENTERED NEAR 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 9N.
Gulf of Mexico - AVN Color Infrared Loop Link
916. GBlet
Pat, could you explain cape values to me please?
Boomers

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
911. weatherdead 5:45 PM GMT on May 22, 2008
It seems "global warming" is used to explain a lot of things. More hurricanes, less hurricanes, even global cooling. Is it just possible that no one really knows what is going on?



That's exactly right! Finally! No one knows what is going on bc the Weather and the systems of the Earth operate on a much larger scale than humans can ever fully understand. Global warming is our current answer to the "abnormalities" we find in the systems. The earth is warming slightly, yes, that's a fact, but the truth is we don't know the cause of this warming for sure- so our THEORY is global warming caused by humans. Now we use this term to justify ANY fluctuation which we can't explain. More hurricanes, less hurricanes, hotter temps, cooler temps... Who knows?!
Cape Values Link
Historically, we have almost never (only once in 100 years) seen a La Nina transition from its current present strength to an El Nino by ASO. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the current La Nina patterns of tropical convection and winds will persist and affect the hurricane season, even if La Nina dissipates.

ASO refers to the months of August, September and October

Source: Noaa's Outlook
Nasty storm just north of Denver, CO. Impressive hook echo, moving to the northwest.


It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly. Chasers discussing these kind of storms have been overheard saying these storms resemble a nuclear explosion as in this photo, because they rise up so quickly and powerfully.
Sorry about that error PATRAP... I'm actually not that stupid :)
Florida best be careful..your my First Barrier Island to Se Louisiana...from the east

If the storm that just formed near Denver and put down a 'large tornado' is a hint at what is to come today, it could be a busy day.
Just looking out fer ya FLWeatherFreak91 ..I never implied you were. Not my style.
Denver Warning TOR Link
NEXRAD Radar TVS signature
Denver Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Be prepared come June First.
Buy that NOAA radio and your Hurricane Supplies Yet JFV?
I hope that tornado missed the most populated areas. Wow is all I can say about that storm.
Looks like Lake Okeechobee will be getting a real good soaking for the next few hours with this action.
Afternoon everyone.
925. Patrap 5:56 PM GMT on May 22, 2008
Florida best be careful..your my First Barrier Island to Se Louisiana...from the east


You better watch out for that end around run around Cuba
936. GBlet
Thanks Pat, our cape values are over 3000! A very odd direction for that colorado storm.
Upslope storms to the NW are rare there.
Good afternoon Nash. Could you give us your opinion on the GFS model forecast right now? It has been remarkably consistent over the past five or six runs in terms of track and intensity. Thanks.
What kind of confidence do you all have in the GFS model? I know last season the CMC seemed to develop many things that never materialized so I guess I'm just wondering what kind of track record the GFS has, and if you all think this really might develop. And if you do think it will develop where does the track look to be headed and how strong might it be? Sorry so many question but I can't view the model on my phone. Thanks.
Question for 456,
Looking at the GFS model, why doesn't the possible system strengthen much at all during the run? It would seem to be in a very favorable environment. Is it interaction with Eastern Pacific activity? Thanks.
I dont track Ghost JFV.
I focus on real time events and impacts.
Glad to see you got that radio.

Next Week is Hurricane Preparedness Week Link
I am paying more attention to the GFS since it has been on this for several days now. Regarding strength, don't even put stock into the model to depict strength. It is not a dynamical model such as the GFDL.
946. IKE
The GFS serves a purpose, It was right on, last year with Dean...a few days in advance. It's been consistent with the western Caribbean system/ghost. It's almost within the 144 hour time frame that several of these other models go out to. It'll be interesting to see if they jump on board. From almost every run the GFS has had, it takes it well east and south of me, so I'm not wishcasting for myself to be involved.
939. AWeatherLover 2:10 PM EDT on May 22, 2008
What kind of confidence do you all have in the GFS model? I know last season the CMC seemed to develop many things that never materialized so I guess I'm just wondering what kind of track record the GFS has, and if you all think this really might develop. And if you do think it will develop where does the track look to be headed and how strong might it be? Sorry so many question but I can't view the model on my phone. Thanks.


Based upon the 12z GFS, the model forecasts the potential system to begin developing right around Panama (can't tell if its in the Pacific side or Caribbean side) in about four to five days. Due to a strong surface ridge over the Central Atlantic, it keeps the system at bay near Nicaragua for about 48 to 60 hours with no strengthening (I would think there would be some strengthening). At about one week out, a deep trough will develop and swing across the northern US moving the surface ridge east and finally allowing the system to move northward. The system continues northward with minor strengthening and crosses Cuba moving into Southern Florida by around June 1. It persists around South Florida for about two days bringing some much needed tropical rainfall, then speeds off paralelling the Eastern Seaboard.

This has been the forecast for the past six runs now, so the model is gaining some consistency necessary to warrant at least some consideration. This possible scenario looks quite reasonable and I see no reason why it won't happen. Just need to see a few more models get on board and need to wait until the weekend to truly gauge the situation more carefully.


948. IKE
I don't think the GFDL runs until there's an invest #.
Where is this "system/ghost" expected to go if it does form?
LIVE coverage of Denver tornado!!!!!


Link
The GFDL only initializes systems that are formed. It does not run for non existing.
953. IKE
949. smmcdavid 1:22 PM CDT on May 22, 2008
Where is this "system/ghost" expected to go if it does form?


A general NNE direction........
946. IKE 2:21 PM EDT on May 22, 2008
The GFS serves a purpose, It was right on, last year with Dean...a few days in advance. It's been consistent with the western Caribbean system/ghost. It's almost within the 144 hour time frame that several of these other models go out to. It'll be interesting to see if they jump on board. From almost every run the GFS has had, it takes it well east and south of me, so I'm not wishcasting from myself to be involved.


If you take a close look at the model run, you see development starting right around the 120 hour, which is five days out. It should be interesting to see the computer models this weekend once it gets into good range.

955. IKE
The GFDL won't run on a pre-blob.
LOL Ike!

Pre blob.
941. cchsweatherman 2:11 PM AST on May 22, 2008
Question for 456,
Looking at the GFS model, why doesn't the possible system strengthen much at all during the run? It would seem to be in a very favorable environment. Is it interaction with Eastern Pacific activity? Thanks.


I was also wondering that. Zonal shear is expected to be weak to modest. In fact, the upper level high that is forecast to station over the Leeward Islands is expected to provide poleward outflow but at the same time increase upper level winds by a bit. There are two other factors, interaction with land, Central America and, as you said, the nearby storm system in the EPAC. Only when the system begins to enter the open enviroment of the NW Caribbean it begins breathing and expands.
958. IKE
LOL...or as Patrap says..."ghost"LOL.
New tornadic storm just east of Boulder, CO moving northwest.
Thanks
961. IKE
Extended discussion from Miam,FL...

"For the extended period including the rest of the Memorial Day
Holiday weekend...Sunday will be the transition day with continuing
above climatology chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly Alligator
alley south, but drying out north of Alligator alley. Back to a
Spring air mass with lower humidities and northeasterly winds Monday
and Tuesday moderating with easterly flow returning late Tuesday and
Wednesday. The Atlantic water temperature is close to 80, so expect
onshore moving marine layer showers anytime beginning Memorial Day.


Even farther out, the GFS is hinting at a much wetter period of
several days beginning Thursday but much can happen between now and
then."
962. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Hey all, I just spoke with my buddy at the Ruskin NWS and although he has been out of town and hasn't seen the model he did say, "the GFS loves to spin up storms." I trust him so my confidence of this happening has dropped a bit but time will tell I suppose.
1802 8 W GREELEY WELD CO 4042 10490:

DIRECT HIT ON STATE FARM BUILDING. CARS TOSSED OFF OF ROAD. TREES DOWN. SWIFT COMPANY ROOF TORN OFF. TORNADO 3/4 TO 1 MILE WIDE (BOU)