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The future of flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:06 PM GMT on February 19, 2008

Are storms getting more extreme due to climate change? That is a difficult question to answer, since reliable records are not available at all in many parts of the world, and extend back only a few decades elsewhere. However, we do have a fairly good set of precipitation records for many parts of the globe, and those records show that the heaviest types of rains--those likely to cause flooding--have increased in recent years. According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, "The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas". Indeed, global warming theory has long predicted an increase in heavy precipitation events. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

More water vapor equals more precipitation
This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then. Thus, there is a large natural variation in extreme precipitation events.

Pollution may contribute to higher precipitation
It is possible that increased pollution is partly responsible for the increase in precipitation and in heavy precipitation events in some parts of the world. According to Bell et al. (2008), summertime rainfall over the Southeast U.S. is more intense on weekdays than on weekends, with Tuesdays having 1.8 times as much rain as Saturdays during the 1998-2005 period analyzed. Air pollution particulate matter also peaks on weekdays and has a weekend minimum, making it likely that pollution is contributing to the observed mid-week rainfall increase. Pollution particles act as "nuclei" around which raindrops condense, increasing precipitation in some storms.

The future of flooding
It is difficult to say if the increase in heavy precipitation events in recent years has led to more flooding, since flooding is critically dependent on how much the landscape has been altered by development, upstream deforestation, and what kind of flood control devices are present. One of the few studies that did attempt to quantify flooding (Milly et al., 2002) found that the incidence of great floods has increased in recent decades. In the past century, the world's 29 largest river basins experienced a total of 21 "100-year floods"--the type of flood one would expect only once per 100 years in a given river basin. Of these 21 floods, 16 occurred in the last half of the century (after 1953). With the IPCC predicting that heavy precipitation events are very likely to continue to increase, it would be no surprise to see flooding worsen globally in the coming decades.

Jeff Masters

References
Bell, T. L., D. Rosenfeld, K.-M. Kim, J.-M. Yoo, M.-I. Lee, and M. Hahnenberger (2008), "Midweek increase in U.S. summer rain and storm heights suggests air pollution invigorates rainstorms," J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02209, doi:10.1029/2007JD008623.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.




Winter Flooding
Winter Flooding
This is the result of extreme snowmelt and 4 inches of rain.
Yellow River Starke County Indiana
Yellow River Starke County Indiana
Kankakee Game Preserve, 10 Mile Road: The Yellow River crested this morning at 12.14' at the US35 bridge at 11:45AM. This was 2.14' over flood stage. The record is 15.3 Jan 1, 1991.

Climate Change Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century.

Very interesting numbers with the WV Dr. Masters.


As per the pollution and Particulate nuclei, I found this site from NOAA that some may find interesting too.
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Research

Link
I believe that warmth leads to higher dew points which leads to a higer QPF which leads to an increased ability in storms to drop more precipitation. I don't think that is a debatable topic.

******************

In regards to defining a trend with accuracy I think we are no where near that ability.

I do not believe we are close to understanding this theoretical upward swing given the huge drop off in not only data sites but data accuracy as you head back in time.

It is irresponsible to attempt to compare statistics from more than 20 years ago to today given the incredible rise in number of data sites world wide, their accuracy, satellites and their ability to measure the atmosphere from space, and how badly that data "poisons" past data sets. It is also irresponsible to use data over a very short period of 5 years' time to attempt to draw a conclusion on the future trend.

In 1900 if you had 10 reliable weather sites worldwide and you attempt to compare the average of those sites to the likely 10,000 reliable weather sites worldwide today.

YOU ARE NOT DOING YOUR JOB but rather a dis-service.

It is unfortunate but I believe only since the mid 1990s have we begun to compile an accurate historical data set and until we're another 15-20 years into the future can we begin to compare data and actually extrapolate a definitive and reliable trend in data of which you can draw conclusions upon.
LOL...its a Blog entry..not a published paper...Gee, get a grip .
Thank you Dr Masters
Maybe some of the wing-nuts on both sides of the debates which break out in the WU community should be given a copy of your writing handbook.
I find the best way to see the data presented,is to read it. Most just cow tail to their own established thinking or formulated opinions.Which is cool too.

Thats not science, thats ignorance,arrogance and a few more words too, LOL
2. P451
And your Curriculum Vitae is?
As far as this winter goes, I believe some of this flooding can be contributed to La Nina
What is NOAA's role?

NOAA measures aerosol particles at a number of monitoring sites, and works with partners to improve the accuracy and reliability of these measurements in order to enhance our understanding of the sources, sinks, and trends in aerosol properties (Figure 8).

Specific to air quality, NOAA provides scientific information and tools for air quality decision-makers and timely and accurate air quality forecast guidance (Figure 9). Particulate matter is one of the most important foci of this effort.

NOAA also engages in intensive field studies with aircraft and ships that enhance our understanding of the processes that affect aerosols (Figure 10). These, together with the long-term monitoring networks, provide a continuous record that is critical to improving our understanding of regional and global air quality and climate, as well as aiding or verifying international management strategies.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Research

Link
From study shown above,

"Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations,"
ABSTRACT

Over the contiguous United States, precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and heavy and very heavy precipitation have increased during the twentieth century. In the east, high streamflow has increased as well. Soil wetness (as described by the Keetch–Byram Drought index) has increased over the northern and eastern regions of the United States, but in the southwestern quadrant of the country soil dryness has increased, making the region more susceptible to forest fires. In addition to these changes during the past 50 yr, increases in evaporation, near-surface humidity, total cloud cover, and low stratiform and cumulonimbus clouds have been observed. Snow cover has diminished earlier in the year in the west, and a decrease in near-surface wind speed has also occurred in many areas. Much of the increase in heavy and very heavy precipitation has occurred during the past three decades.


Sounds like a pretty mixed bag to me, but what do I know. Isn't more precipitation a good thing? I thought droughts were the problem.

I use the most scientific method available for flood-evaluation:
How far has my garbage can floated from the driveway, and at what estimated velocity.
and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements

MAGIC words here! I would love to see results if TRMM, MODIS, and any other satellite measurements of precipitible water, precipitation, profilers, and the like were entirely excluded.

Everything we have in strong favor of GW seems to show the greatest increases of variable X beginning around 1970...satellite time.

Now if I saw something in support of GW that went through some adjustments to show trends on consistent intsruments in consistent locales with consistent surroundings resulting in consistent biases and error then we will have something correctly scientific. Short of that I will remain unimpressed and unconvinced.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Interesting and discussion-worthy, as usual.
Hey folks!

Are you ready for some crazy temps this weekend across south florida?

Several models ive looked at are indicating high temperatures approaching 90 degress this weekend.It's really been one of the warmest winters ive seen in a while for south florida.Stay tuned!

www.AdriansWeather.com
o yay can't wait for those temps 23. j/k
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Where to start? First, a moist shallow layer of low clouds is seen along the coastal slopes of the Sierra Madre and the Gulf of Mexico west of 93W and north of 20N. This layer is tied to leftover moisture from the previous frontal boundary enhanced by the calm conditions associated with upper confluence and a weak surface ridge. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is dying across the Southern Gulf of Mexico from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Straits. Weak surface high pressure over Louisiana producing fair weather across the Southeast United States and 10-20 knot easterly winds and 6-7 ft swells across the Gulf waters. These conditions are expected to remain relatively unchanged for the next 24 hrs.

A cold front is pushing its way across the Western Atlantic from the Florida Straits, across the Northern Bahamas to beyond 32N/65W, accompanied by a 120 nmi swath of cloudiness and showers. A surface ridge centered on a 1029 mb high near 34N/50W protrudes across the Atlantic ahead of the front providing 20 knot anticyclonic flow with fair weather and widely scattered patches of cloudiness.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and very dry stable flow covers most of the Caribbean Basin this evening thereby hindering shower activity and allowing fair conditions to exist at the surface. Meanwhile, Scattered cloudiness and showers is seen along the Southern American Isthmus in association with the ITCZ enhanced by the outflow (divergence aloft) accompanied by the upper ridge. Trades are and swells are easterly at 10-20 knots and 6-7 ft. These conditions relaxed somewhat due to the passage of the frontal trough that broke down the ridge to the north of the region.

by W456
In the past century, the world's 29 largest river basins experienced a total of 21 "100-year floods"--the type of flood one would expect only once per 100 years in a given river basin. Of these 21 floods, 16 occurred in the last half of the century (after 1953).

ok.....help me out here......29 basins...and we're talking flooding which we should see once every 100 years..and in a 100 years...only 21 suffered these types of flood...when we should expect to see a number such as 29....now since 1953...we've seen 16...just over half...and we're causing a stir over this?.....sounds to me as a rush to judgement....oh..it came from the u.n...and correlates with their mmgw program.....i think there might be a correlation
Does dry areas see a greater chance of seeing snow at 48degrees? This winter N.C was already in bad drought. Around 4times forcasters would call for rain and it would snow instead at mid to upper 40s and that would make the temps "rapidly drop", around to 30degrees.

Also, does snow clean the atmosphere?


Next snowstorm on the way for N.C.Models since last week have been calling moisture to meet with cold air Thursday and Friday.A mix is possibal as far down to Greensboro.Local forcasters are predicting snow/sleet to start and change to freezing-rain for hours.Then light rain/mist Friday 9:00a.m.
"All lies and jests
still a man hears what he wants to hear
and disregards the rest"

LOL Ric, true,

If we only had 21, 100year floods out of 29 rivers in the past 100 years, then are we in drought conditions globally?

Must be Global Warming book 2 sub-chapter 35 line 56. Water vapor evaporation over major river basins on third Tuesdays of off cyclical years - are the result of Global Warming.
Are you serious Hurricane23???? Temps. in the 90's Thanks for the head's up. Not too happy to hear we are going to be so hot this weekend. Presently in the middle of Polo season, the heat is hard on the humans, but this hot is very hard on some of the horses - polo is played in florida this time of year because we expect to be in the 70's --not the 90's Looking forward to some surf maybe this weekend
ppsssssttttt.....mom.......it's just models at this point......predictions are for a high of 85 in miami...and the highest recorded for that date was 89 in 1991.....not a bad day for an afternoon of knocking any type of ball around
If the medical research profession were held to the same standards as those...folks at the UN and the Gore-estas, there would be millions of deaths from poorly researched drugs.

Are they really awarding Phd's to those folks? Goodness gracious, it sure does appear so. This latest blog commentary by Dr. Masters is a glaring example of poor science. Another example is that dumb commentary about spewing sulfer into the atmosphere. Had one of the "denialists" proposed such an idiotic idea they would have been verbally lynched!!

The worst part of it all is the facist attitudes of the Global Warming/ Global Climate Change gang will soon be in full swing. You will know they have arrived when the accusations of the opposition being "denialists" begin to fly around the blog.



A coolie among us..LOL

9. sebastianjer
When you finish with the full article would you consider forwarding me a copy? I'll pay half.
Well I'll take 85 degrees, not as bad as 90, but were not talking knocking a ball around at a cantor --these guys go flying down the field at full throttle gallop whacking the ball. These horses feel the heat, add 20 degree to the temp and that's what they feel during a chukker.
What I do know is to make sure all the water tanks in the trailers are topped out, cause even at 85, we are going to be busy cooling the horses down after they play.
I agree with the article but there is one thing that I believe they left out. I think more people are noticing more flooding just due to the fact there are a lot more people here today than there was back in the 1950's.
Well the dog is telling me its time to walk the human. Good to see everybody ....g'night
12. hurricane23

Are you ready for some crazy temps this weekend across south florida?

Several models ive looked at are indicating high temperatures approaching 90 degress this weekend.It's really been one of the warmest winters ive seen in a while for south florida.Stay tuned!


Funny, Grand Rapids, MI is setting snow records:

If you think winters were snowier when you were a kid...think again! The stormy winter of 2007-2008 has set or is on the way to setting some very impressive snowfall records. Here’s a list of a few of them.

As of 7 PM on February 19th, total of 87.6 inches of snow has fallen since December 1st at Grand Rapids. This is a record for the three month period of December, January and February at Grand Rapids. The old record was 85.1 inches set back in the winter of 1951-1952. This three month period is defined as being the climatological winter, so technically this is the snowiest winter on record at Grand Rapids!

However, the snowiest winter season (which actually goes from July 1st to June 30th) is the 1951-1952 season with 132.0 inches. We still have quite a ways to go before we challenge that. Our seasonal snowfall total since July 1st is 90.5 inches as of 7 PM February 19th.

Grand Rapids has an excellent chance at breaking the record for the snowiest February on record. The current record is 35.5 inches set in 1900. As of 7 PM Feb. 19th we are at 34.3 inches, only 3.4 inches from the record. With more snow expected over the next 24 hours, this record could fall soon. Interestingly, the third snowiest February in Grand Rapids history occurred only last year. February 2007 produced 33.6 inches of snow!

Some other recent snowfall records:

Muskegon’s snowfall for February, as of 7 PM on the 19th, was 36.1 inches. That puts Muskegon in 3rd place for the snowiest February on record. With the current record being 45.8 inches, set in 1981 and over a week in the month to go yet, plus the current lake effect snow event will continue into Wednesday afternoon, is not out of the question that record could also fall.

Muskegon’s snowiest winter was 140.6 inches in 1977- 1978. The current winter snowfall total at Muskegon is 96.1 inches. That puts this winter in 17th place as the snowiest winter on record. The snowiest winter season, that is July 1st through June 30th, is 173.9 inches set in 1981-1982. This puts the snowfall season of 2007-2008 in 27th place for the snowiest on record.

Muskegon set a daily record for snowfall on Monday with 5.6 inches. The old record for February 18th was 5.0 inches set in 1962.

Grand Rapids set a record for most days in February with 3 or more inches of snow. The total (so far) of 6 days broke the record of 5 such days set in 1994.
23. ShenValleyFlyFish 8:05 PM EST on February 19, 2008

9. sebastianjer
When you finish with the full article would you consider forwarding me a copy? I'll pay half.


LOL Shen

sure will, but I'll tell you the ending now

It's caused by Global Warming

The End
Science Settled

BTW How's Virginia doing? Going to try to get up there this summer, Love the Blue Ridge in the summer tme

JER
Funny, Grand Rapids, MI is setting snow records:

That is due to La Nina (as explained in this great write-up, which also applies to surrounding areas). Not really surprising either as the Upper Midwest has been very wet the last year (remember all of the flooding up there last summer?) and now it is falling as snow instead of rain. Personally, the weather patterns remind me of 1992-1993, when record wet conditions and record winter snowfall produced one of the worst floods in U.S. history (there were also extreme droughts and heatwaves over the Southeast).
On the other hand, if the CFS is right, we won't have to worry about a major flood this summer, instead a major, nationwide drought (like in 1988, which was the costliest weather disaster on record until Katrina, $40 billion in 1988 dollars, $60 billion today; 5,000-10,000 heat related deaths also occurred):



On another note, the 2008 hurricane season may be similar to last year, with storms being torn apart as they try to move out of the deep tropics and potentially threaten the U.S., besides cooler water than 1995-2006 (possibly even cooler than last year, a strong La Nina also isn't really good for an active season, and for landfalls it is Central America that needs to really watch out):

WOW , GW causes flooding? And I thought it was over-population, deforestation, poor irrigation and drainage practices to name a few. Continue to be amazed.
Great update as usual Dr. Masters. This has to be studied since it could have great reprecussions for millions around the world. By the way, I will be issuing my first hurricane season predictions within the next 10 days. Based upon the latest La Nina data, I may have to rethink my predictions.
32. Bgoney 8:00 PM CST on February 19, 2008
WOW , GW causes flooding? And I thought it was over-population, deforestation, poor irrigation and drainage practices to name a few. Continue to be amazed.


Global warming alone doesn't cause flooding - it just helps make it worse, which is what I read from that (and what anybody else should realize). And actually, many of those other factors you listed are related (i.e. the destruction/alteration of the environment by human activities).
35. P451
patrap: LOL...its a Blog entry..not a published paper...Gee, get a grip .

What exactly do I have to get a grip on? What's the difference if it's a blog or a published paper? It's still an opinion of which is open to discussion.

I neither discredited nor attacked Dr. Master's piece I merely added my own opinion regarding data sets which apparently hold a lot of value to those making predictions or assumptions on our future.


There is absolutely nothing wrong with that and it is a very valid concern of mine when it comes to predictions based off of data.
A repost from the previous blog so Baha's question would be answered:

121. atmoaggie 12:37 AM GMT on February 19, 2008
Just wanted to share an experience many of you would probably appreciate:

Last night at almost midnight EST, I was flying from Miami to New Orleans. The route took us right past the southern end of our latest neighborhood cold front and I happened to have a window seat on the right side of the plane, a 737.

We were cruising at 35000 feet, well above some low clouds. About 10 miles outside my window were the cumulus towers along the frontal boundary all of which was well illuminated by moonlight from above. The towers were very well defined with sheer cliff-like sides, at least on the south side. This went on for about an hour of the flight over the Gulf. An absolutely awesome view. The cloud tops were well above our flight level and overshooting tops evident. We all know they are there. We have seen pictures, the effects, and in some cases studied the thoery behind it all in college. But to cleary see the towers at eye level and follow the edge of the front for an hour...awesome. I have to guess that only pilots are afforded such a neat , in person, view on a regular basis.

To cap that off was the cloud-to-cloud lightning every 5 seconds or so which was also clearly visible. What a spectacle! I wish I had my camera and AA had killed the D@MN#D cabin lights!

To be honest, that hour was far more entertaining than anything else I saw in Miami including my 30 minute, one-on-one discussion with Bill Read (more on that later)!


Baha, the Bill Read discussion, oddly enough, was very little about tropical at all. Most of it was about gridded products NHC/NWS could make available to the marine weather community...data like currents, SST, wind analyses, wave analyses, etc.
We did talk a little about a few of the HRD researchers we both know, like Landsea, Powell and we also talked about the eventual replacement of QuikScat with HIRAD, or something like it.

HIRAD is the proposed space-based SFMR with a wide enough field of view to capture an entire storm's wind field.
37. P451
5. Patrap 10:23 PM GMT on February 19, 2008
I find the best way to see the data presented,is to read it. Most just cow tail to their own established thinking or formulated opinions.Which is cool too.

Thats not science, thats ignorance,arrogance and a few more words too, LOL



******

6. ShenValleyFlyFish 10:26 PM GMT on February 19, 2008
2. P451
And your Curriculum Vitae is?




Wow, a lot of defensive people not even understanding what I was saying.

What is with the personal attacks? No need for that especially considering neither one of you have even attempted to understand what I am alluding to.

Also, more on the CFS shear forecast for hurricane season - notice the higher shear is north of about 20N and lower south of 20N - then notice the tracks from last year. Kind of similar (strong/long-lived storms south of about 20N, weak/short-lived/sheared apart storms north of about 20N).
Also, more on the CFS shear forecast for hurricane season - notice the higher shear is north of about 20N and lower south of 20N - then notice the tracks from last year. Kind of similar (strong/long-lived storms south of about 20N, weak/short-lived/sheared apart storms north of about 20N).

I see it. Now the question will be how well the forecast scores...will the shear pattern persist?
Predicting the weather doesn't get any better than this. No matter what the weather...Global Warming is the cause. Too much snow...Global Warming Too much rain...Global Warming...Less huricanes...Global Warming. And thats not all...It's all mans fault. ??!! Like somebody said in an earlier series...Fortunately, the Weather can't read...Any comments on the sun and the absence of sunspots? Doesn't the absence of sunspots indicate a decrease in energy output by the sun? Guess the sun doesn't read the Man Made Global Warming claptrap either. Sure am glad that the weather will be what it will be. Weather...do your thing.
I give the IPCC about as much credence is I do a politician wanting a vote....
Hey Jer if you don't want the article yourself I can get it through my son in the hydrology dpt. down at Clemson. I only thought of it as I was driving back from a beer run. I'm interested because of my fishing. Had a Blue Ribbon Native trout stream coming off the Shenandoah National Park less than 10 miles from where I sit as the crow flies hit by a 500 yr. flood a number of years back. Wasn't living on this side of the mountain but one of the rangers showed my Trout Unlimited chapter the footage from helicopter assessment fly-over. Unbelievable! Folks who saw it said 300 year old oaks were flying around like a box of dumped matchsticks. Fortunately the stream feeds into one the city of Charlottesville's water-supply reservoirs and the dam held. Don't want to imagine what would have happened if it hadn't. 31 F with a brisk wind here. Been stuck in bed with the flue for the last 3 days and it was a lot warmer last time I was out. It felt colder than the Blue Blazes when I went out. I know I know what a southern wimp.
flooding is critically dependent on how much the landscape has been altered by development, upstream deforestation, and what kind of flood control devices are present.

Well, yeah. Mankind needs to realize having "intelligence" and "science" does not confer the right to destroy life on this planet, human life or otherwise. Earth will survive. Mankind may not. Flooding is only one example of human disregard for Natural Law.

37. P451 9:11 PM EST on February 19, 2008

My question stands. Methinks I recognize a pattern here.
40. feldspar 8:20 PM CST on February 19, 2008
Predicting the weather doesn't get any better than this. No matter what the weather...Global Warming is the cause.


You listen to the media way too much... actual scientists (including those who do believe in global warming) are not saying that... that is like the hype about global cooling in the 1970s... they do that to sell... and need to stop because of all of the denialists they are generating...
Here is an example of a real article, unbiased by the media:

China's snow storms not climate change-scientists
Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:17am EST Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]

powered by Sphere
Featured Broker sponsored linkBy Michael Perry

SYDNEY, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Snow storms in China that have killed more than 60 people are not directly linked to climate change, say scientists, but simply an extreme event caused by very cold winter temperatures and a La Nina weather pattern.

La Nina has brought moist air over southern China at a time of very cold winter temperatures, resulting in heavy snow falls, said Chinese weather experts.

"This is mainly related to abnormal atmospheric circulation and the La Nina event," Dong Wenjie of the National Climate Centre told the official People's Daily.


The article does go on to say this - but this is not the same as saying that a particular event was caused by climate change:

My guess is this is a natural event without any particular reason to link it to climate change. The climate change models are not predicting increases in snow events like this," Whetton told Reuters on Thursday.

She said China could expect a less stable climate because of global warming, with various regions experiencing drier, wetter, hotter conditions, as well as more intense tropical storms.

"Cold extremes are generally not predicted to become more intense and frequent because we have a warming climate," she said.



Similar articles can be found for any of the other recent extreme weather events, if you look past the trashy media-hype machines.
Sorry Shen,
Thought you were referring to my smart alec remark, that I made, not my original post #9.
That is from Dr. M's Blog which can not be accessed through his link. However I did find the paper here on line Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends.

Your description of the flood reminds me of years ago. I'm originally from Portland Oregon and on a trip home we went up to Mt.St Helens , this was less than a year after the eruption.
Forest full of giant Douglass Firs were strewn around like tiddly winks, it was almost beyond belief.

Hope you are feeling better and the fishing is good

JER
#46
My guess is this is a natural event without any particular reason to link it to climate change. The climate change models are not predicting increases in snow events like this,

Perhaps they ought to talk to Dr. M and Ricky Rood, I thought climate change (sarcasm implied) would cause more precipitation (snow). As a matter of fact Ricky on his blog made a point of telling me one time that this is exactly what we could expect. I think his words were something pretty much like, it still gets cold and with more water vapor there will be more snow, it just won't stay around as long. Or words to that affect.
Maybe sombody needs to look at the model runs again and get their stories straight.
48. sebastianjer 9:04 PM CST on February 19, 2008
#46
My guess is this is a natural event without any particular reason to link it to climate change. The climate change models are not predicting increases in snow events like this,


"snow events like this" refers to snow that occurs in places that are normally TOO WARM for snow... yes, colder places may get more snow as long as they stay below freezing, but not places like southern China...
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link

UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Excuse me Michael the news story you posted says snow storms in China I see where later it says southern China, I guess maybe some day we won't have cold winters in Southern China but it isn't twenty years after the onset of the global warming scare.

Since CRU just reported that Jan 2008 was the coldest month globally since Feb 1994, we'll just have to wait awhile to see.

BTW didn't see that little tid bit of info released on your nightly news now did you, lol

JER
Jer thanks for the link. Downloaded it to read when clearer headed. Good night all.
Since CRU just reported that Jan 2008 was the coldest month globally since Feb 1994, we'll just have to wait awhile to see.

That is due to the super-La Nina currently in progress (think 1997-1998 but La Nina instead of El Nino, and unlike even that event, it is still strengthening at a now freakish time of the year for ENSO events, which almost always peak around December), so I am not surprised at all (I remember this article from 1988, saying that global temperatures would retreat - temporarially - to 1950s levels). I bet you forgot that just a year ago we had the warmest winter on record, and even with a La Nina the warmest land temperatures on record (as La Nina cools the oceans first; this also proves that the cooling isn't from something else, like the current solar minimum, which would have cooled land first, not to mention that solar activity has declined sine 1950, when more than half of the warming since 1900 occurred; Ricky posted a chart showing that natual forcing was towards cooling).



Also interesting is something that I found that suggests that the ice ages were El Nino dominated - suggesting that warm periods are La Nina dominated - the exact opposite of what is commonly thought, as El Nino raises global temperatures and La Nina cools them.
Sounds good Michael what was the increase in temperature for the 20th century, do you know?
56. P451
44. ShenValleyFlyFish 2:37 AM GMT on

My question stands. Methinks I recognize a pattern here.


I find your question of no consequence.

I have learned in the past that those who reply with insults or questions of one's knowledge on a subject rather than debate one's reply to said subject actually have no answer to one's opinion.

So either debate my point of view or ignore me and leave this "holier than thou" response of arrogance out of it.

Sorry I threatened you so with a rather VERY IMPORTANT take on data collection and the analysis there of.

Here, let me try to explain my concern.

Let's do something simple. Let's say New Jersey has 3 data collection regions. Andover, Newark, Atlantic City. Let's say we collected data from those three places for 10 years. Let's say in the 11th year we opened a new collection site in Cherry Hill. Let's suggest 5 years later we decided to calculate an average Temperature in New Jersey given all collected data over 15 years.

Guess what? It WILL show a rise in temperature from years 11-15. Why? Cherry Hill is in a warmer region. It will poison the over all data pool.


Try extrapolating that world wide....over a century...and see what you find.

You will find a highly poisoned data pool of which you are using to attempt to paint a picture of our future.

Let's say you understand that and say "Fine, We'll just use the years that all four cities were compiled."

Now you'd be irresponsible in suggesting five years of data could possibly paint you a picture of the future.


Do you get it or do you just want to continue to insult me?

Well Michael

The total increase in global temperatures for the entire 20th century was .6 degC globally. With the warmest year as everyone know being 1998 (EL Nino) Since 1998 temperature have not gone up, now have they?

That is going on a decade without an increase in global temperature. Now what is supposed to happen with increased CO2 ? Temperatures are supposed to rise, correct? They have not, I know you know this but i want to put this into perspective for anyone who just may be lurking.

I know that you are going to fill the screen with all kinds of charts and graphs and such, that's fine, I could do the same but I'm a simple guy.

The point is this, increased co2 should equal rising temperatures, for the past decade they have not.

But the point I really want to make is this.

From 1901-2000 global temperatures increased .6 degC globally. From Jan 2007 -to Jan 2008 global temperatures dropped .6 degC Actually .595 degC but what's five one hundredth of a degree amongst friends.

If (+).6 degC increase in 100 years is important what do you call (-) .6 degC in a single year?

I know you're going to blast that little analysis to pieces somehow, have fun, I'm going to bed. I thought that might just put a little perspective on things...or not

JER
the great debate continues
funny thing by the time we figure it out its already going to be too late if not already
well the drumbeat for this blog continues.....

Seriously, there is just as much evidence that ths Sun has more influence on our weather cycles than anything else yet we rarely if ever hear about it here......

Oh well, onward and upward I guess....time to drive my mega-polluting SUV to stave off another winter storm here in Ohio hopefully :-D
How about land use changes...that makes flooding all more real because you have all these people living in areas where none did 100+ years ago, so the "flooding" becomes more relevant. Plus the world's population has markedly increased in the past 100 years, hence there are more people that can be affected by the weather.

iam more worry about this seasons ice melt in northern hemp it not as thick there fore it may melt even faster and in turn send even more colder water perkulating down into pacific
stormMan there are more people then it can support we are suffering the cannon ball effect
From 1901-2000 global temperatures increased .6 degC globally. From Jan 2007 -to Jan 2008 global temperatures dropped .6 degC Actually .595 degC but what's five one hundredth of a degree amongst friends.

I've never heard of this, and I've heard about pretty much everything weather-related at least once.

Mind pointing me in the right direction to find this information?
Flooding isn't the only problem associated with heavy precip events. A couple years back, the Canadian wheat harvest was down about 17% due to saturated soils in the west. A series of heavy precip events, but no horrendous flooding, AFAIK.

Actual flooding is not required to screw up harvest quantity and quality enough to create significant socioeconomic consequences. And just how much is this being discussed compared to, say, building seawalls or reducing GHG emissions in 20-30 years? There are serious climate change consequences already on our doorstep that no one seems to be evaluating or planning mediation strategies for. No visuals suitable for CGI-representation in a summer blockbuster flick, I suppose.
Koritheman

I've never heard of this, and I've heard about pretty much everything weather-related at least once.


CRU's data was just released but here you go.

Click on this link it is the CRU Data set for the tempearature anomaly for the world going back to 1850, month by month. This is the readings that the IPCC uses. Scroll to the bottom, last number (column next to date) is for Jan 2008. Just go up and look at the drop since Jan, 2007.
Link

or if you prefer here is a graph from one of them skeptic sites which shows it



As you can see, despite all the headlines of 2007 being the 2nd, 5th or 8th warmest IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD,depending on who's figure you believed, it was getting colder while doing it. satellite data doesn't show quite as big of drop, but then again it never has shown quite as big a rise. But that's not what your local newscast usually report, they usually report the GISS figures, which also show a drop. Have to go to work

Have a good day all
JER
anyone have the link to the shuttle tracker?
Heavens above link..Link
NASA TV Live...Link
NASA Atlantis Landing Blog.. Link
Patrap, thanks
8:40 a.m. – Atlantis is in entry interface, which means it is starting to encounter the fringes of the atmosphere. The friction with the thickening air slows Atlantis down before it starts its supersonic glide through the atmosphere on the way to Kennedy Space Center. Atlantis' altitude is about 400,000 feet over the Pacific Ocean. Landing remains scheduled for 9:07 a.m. EST.

The crew has activated the aerodynamic surfaces of Atlantis' wings and body flap and they are reported working and in good shape.
8:50 a.m. - Atlantis and its crew of seven are surrounded by an envelope of supercharged plasma as they ride through thickening layers of the atmosphere. The heat shield is doing its job by insulating the shuttle from the heat and friction of the entry.

The sensation of gravity is also returning to the crew. For NASA astronaut and former International Space Station resident Dan Tani, this is the first wieght he has felt in 120 days. He moved onto the station four months ago during the STS-120 mission.
8:55 a.m. - Atlantis is over Central America and will skirt the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before heading over the Gulf of Mexico on a heading that will bring it over the west coast of Florida in a few minutes. Commander Steve Frick will steer the shuttle onto an approach to land from the northeast on runway 15 at Kennedy Space Center.
8:57 a.m. - Atlantis is over Florida. Less than 200 miles to go for Atlantis to reach the spaceport on at Kennedy Space Center.
This has probably been posted......I haven't read back through the whole blog but I have seen the chart posted.



The global surface temperature anomaly data from the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit has just been released, and it shows a significant drop in the global temperature anomaly in January 2008, to just 0.034C, just slightly above zero. This caps a full year of temperature drop from HadCRUT’s January 2007 value of 0.632C.
The change in temperature for the year then is 0.595C which is in line with other respected global temperature metrics that I have reported on in the past two weeks. RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year. We are in an extended solar minimum, we have a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to a cold state, and we are seeing arctic ice extents setting new records and rebounding from the summer melt. While weather is defined as such variability, the fact that so many things are in agreement on a global scale in such a short time span of one year should give us pause.

More here.
man thats steep!
Welcome Home Atlantis...
YAYYYY!!!

They made it back safely!!!
Wheels Stop Houston...
yay!!! picture perfect landing!!! wooo-hooo!!! and we all got to watch it together!!!
What was the flight pattern for the landing?
Did they come in from the South?
came in outta the southwest, from over cuba I think. was a GREAT touchdown!
Thats got to be a fun ride at the angle and speed they come home on!
They must have come right over my area.....I heard the Kaboooom!
COOL vort!!! that's so COOL!!!
OK...I see...they came in further West...but it was still loud enough to hear very clearly!
Yeah Aqua.....sometimes it's so strong it literally shakes the foundation of the house!
The boom was much stronger than others that I've experienced. This one really shook the house. Welcome home.
Where are you? Vort? Naples here.
I'm on the east coast....Sewall's Point.
we heard the boom last november? here in jacksonville. So cool that some of us heard it. aLways great when we get to share things together regardless of where we are.

and a lunar eclipse tonite! Wow!
A few of us saw one of shuttles coming home while hunting one morning. We were amazed at how fast it went from horizon to horizon...very cool looking b/c the sun wasn't up yet, but it was reflecting off the shuttle and trail.
STS-118 Space Shuttle Endeavour Twin Sonic Booms 8-21-2007
Link

Double sonic booms of U.S. Fighter Jet. This shows the Prandtl-Glauert Condensation Clouds also.
Link

Another KSC Sonic Boom from Shuttle,with a twist Link
Wow.... cajunkid!
That's a once in a lifetime thing.
Must have been quite a sight!

good morning Dr Master's and friends.

I think I am confused. We are in "global warming" phase but we will probably have record breaking cold for the 2008 winter (Dr Master's prev blog)... record cold for most of North America for Jan & Feb.

and I thought we were in a world wide drought now we are having flooding?


and I read else where that "ice age" we thought back in the 1970's that was coming..... really is coming after we get out of this little 20 year warming trend which is not going to be significant over time..and we will be really cold in about 40 years!


Does anyone really know (Except God) or are we all just giving it our best based on our own beliefs????
Mornin all. Glad to see Atlantis made it home safe and sound. Does anyone know when they plan on downing that satellite and will anyone be able to see it if they do it at night?
Welcome home Atlantis

They indicated that USA 93 would probably be targeted for tonight at 0:00 GMT, but the weather may change it.

Thanks DR. Masters for the story on floods. The 100 year FEMA maps may have to be redone and restrict more areas from development. I know of several areas the have had several 100 year storms in the last 25 years.
FOX NEWS
Weather may be an issue later today for the first shootdown attempt. Link
Looks like winter is hanging tough. GFSx 10-day Link
Tonights Menu and weapon of Choice The SM-3 Missile and is Variants



Link to Enlargement Link
Not sure if anybody saw this story from a couple days ago.... but it appears according to data, that the polar ice caps have recovered to "near normal" levels.....


http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/35266/Global-warming-It-s-the-coldest-winter-in-decades


"NEW evidence has cast doubt on claims that the world’s ice-caps are melting, it emerged last night.

Satellite data shows that concerns over the levels of sea ice may have been premature.

It was feared that the polar caps were vanishing because of the effects of global warming.

But figures from the respected US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that almost all the “lost” ice has come back.

Ice levels which had shrunk from 13million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels.

Figures show that there is nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than is usual for the time of year.

The data flies in the face of many current thinkers and will be seized on by climate change skeptics who deny that the world is undergoing global warming."


I guess this explains why "global warming" is no longer the word of the day..... but is now "climate change"......

I will go back to my stance on all this..... we should work hard to clean up our planets air and water. This we can all agree on. But the debate about "global warming" and "climate change" is still just that..... a debate.

56. P451 11:23 PM EST on February 19, 2008
Pattern confirmed ignore deployed
The Lake Erie that will launch the missile.

LAKE ERIE

106. P451
104. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:24 PM GMT on February 20, 2008 Hide this comment.
56. P451 11:23 PM EST on February 19, 2008
Pattern confirmed ignore deployed



Cool. Unwarranted and pointless, but nonetheless a decision you are free to make. Why I still don't understand but so be it.
If we could get funding like this for Space Based weather Platforms for Observation and measurement, just think of the possibilities.


Sea-Based National Missile Defense

The Heritage Foundation report Defending America, A Plan to Meet the Urgent Missile Threat advocates a combined sea-based and space-based, global BMD architecture. The initial defense capability would be based upon the U.S. Navys twenty-two AEGIS cruisers carrying NTW Block II interceptor missiles, supported by a constellation of low orbit Space-Based Infrared (SBIRS-Low) satellites for launch detection, target tracking and engagement control. The Heritage Report focuses on a sea-based, global anti-missile capability, which they believe could provide the earliest protection against emergent Rest of World (ROW) ballistic missiles. The capability alone does not meet all the requirements of the JROC-approved NMD Operational Requirements Document (ORD). The ORD requires an initial NMD system able to achieve a high confidence, highly effective defense of all 50 states, against a simple, stressful, strategic ballistic missile threat.


Story Link
108. P451
Looks like a little winter weather from late Thursday into Saturday for the mid-atlantic and southern NE. Have a classic toeing of the rain/snow line in store for me in Jersey it seems.

After this afternoons ~1 inch snowfall:

Thur PM: Snow
Fri AM: Snow
Fri MID: Rain
Fri PM: Snow
Sat AM: Snow
Sat MID: Rain
Sat PM: Snow
From Jackson, MS NWS:


Photobucket
It's going to be a wet one too:


Photobucket

At least it seems the Southeast is getting some decent, consistant, drought reducing rainfall.
SM-1 Launch Video. Link

The Dutch Navy Maybe should get the 2nd shot if needed. Link
Our local weather station says only a 30% chance of rain Thursday for West central FL. Are they missing something? By looking at the above graphic, it looks like the rain chances will be slightly higher that 30% to me.
I sure hope these rainfall forecasts are accurate Sully. Lot of these areas still need a bunch more rain.

Unfortunately some areas are going to be flooding.

You can't ever win with the weather:


Photobucket

This one is for Friday.

those Aegis cruisers are bad to the bone!
weathers4me....It all depends on how the local forecaster interprets what the models say.
Either way....looks like you might get a little rain.
112. Patrap 4:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2008The Dutch Navy Maybe should get the 2nd shot if needed



Did you see those guys duck when that went off? hahahahahaha
Thats U.S. Built SM-2 Missile scared um good..LOL
118. Patrap 5:16 PM GMT on February 20, 2008
Thats U.S. Built SM-2 Missile scared um good..LOL



I watched that over and over and I'm still bustin' a gut. hehehehehe
From across the pond....I haven't found good links - no time - but UK evidence is also that winters are getting wetter with more heavy rainfall events. (Never mind summers - last June/July's storms dumped anything up to seven inches of rain on areas where an inch or two in a day would normally be regarded as a downpour.) Wouldn't you expect to break snowfall records in areas where winter temperatures are still below freezing, but a relatively warmer atmosphere picks up more water?
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
Should any of you be aviators and/or use this data (from email):

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 08-01: CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
102 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CORRECTED: CHANGES TO THE AVIATION TROPICAL CYCLONE
ADVISORY PRODUCT: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008

CORRECTED FOR THE PROPER ORDER OF THE REMARKS /RMK/ AND NEXT
MESSAGE /NXT MSG/ SECTIONS IN THE EXAMPLE.

EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008...THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ AND THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
/CPHC/ WILL CHANGE THE PRODUCT FORMAT. HOWEVER... MOST OF THESE
CHANGES WILL BE TRANSPARENT TO USERS.

THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS ARE AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE:

HURRICANE BASINAWIPS IDWMO HEADING
ATLANTICTCANT/1-5/FKNT/21-25/ KNHC
EASTERN PACIFIC TCAPZ/1-5/FKPZ/21-25/ KNHC
CENTRAL PACIFIC TCAPA/1-5/FKPA/21-25/ PHFO

THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MAY 15 2008:

1. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR FORECAST HOURS OF
+06...+12...+18...AND +24 WILL BE CALCULATED FOR THE ROUTINE
ADVISORY TIMES OF 0300 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /Z/...
0900Z... 1500Z...AND 2100Z. PREVIOUSLY THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY INFORMATION WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SYNOPTIC TIMES
OF 0000Z...0600Z...1200Z...AND 1800Z.

2. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION FOR THE FORECAST HOURS
WILL BE DERIVED FROM INTERPOLATED FORECAST INFORMATION.

NOTE: THE VALID TIMES IN THE MESSAGE WILL NOT CHANGE DURING
ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL ADVISORIES.

3. A REMARKS SECTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE MESSAGE AND WILL
CONTAIN THE FOLLOWING CAUTIONARY STATEMENT: THE FORECAST
INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL
FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...0600...1200...AND 1800Z.

Bump, I think??
Pretty weird!
That was a year old blog they had up.
???
Hello to all. Any of my "teachers" around today? For some reason hurricane season entered my mind and I thought of you guys. Maybe it's being in the insurance business AND living in Southern Louisiana that keeps it on my mind. We have been having some interesting winter thunderstorms through here lately. Hope Mother Nature is getting it out of her sister early in the year!
I'm all set for more winter up here in Mass.,still too early to think of spring,and don't forget Punxatauney Phil saw his shadow
127. Inyo
I don't understand the link between air pollution and rain.. I saw another study that said particulate pollution from China DECREASES precipitation in the Sierras... so I'm not sure which is accurate, or if both are.

Also, as for the drought forecast... they have forecast a dry year for southern California every month, and so far every month this winter has near or above average precip. (Feb. may come in a bit below average, but could still hit average if we get an inch or two this week). The point is that this La Nina is not acting like other La Ninas, so I wouldn't be too confident in the dry weather forecast.

I would note though that that drought forecast indicates 'average rainfall' for so-cal from june-august. Average is zero inches, so we should be getting about that.
Here's part of the story: Milly et al., 2002) found that the incidence of great floods has increased in recent decades. In the past century, the world's 29 largest river basins experienced a total of 21 "100-year floods"--the type of flood one would expect only once per 100 years in a given river basin. Of these 21 floods, 16 occurred in the last half of the century (after 1953).

Now, wouldn't you expect 29 100 year floods after 100 years in 29 river basins? Then, wouldn't you expect 15.5 100 year events in 50 years? So, where is the great meaning to be found in this story?
I don't understand the link between air pollution and rain.. I saw another study that said particulate pollution from China DECREASES precipitation in the Sierras... so I'm not sure which is accurate, or if both are.

There have been a number of studies by Texas A&M atmo folks showing an increase in lightning frequency downwind of major metro areas some of which could be attributed to abnormal near-surface heating, some to increased particulate matter (aerosols).

Also, work has shown that immediately downwind of extreme particulate sources, less rainfall will fall. This is called the over-seeding phenomenon (seeding coming from the old cloud seeding work). When an excessive number of aerosols are present, the available moisture is distributed to more particles (nuclei) and none coalesce into effective raindrops as they all started out much smaller than usual.

So, more avaiable nuclei can cause more rain, to a point, then a point is reached (based on the precipitible water vapor) where more clouds are created (of smaller droplets), but less rain.

Some details here.
Sorry folks the viewing for the eclipse across the south florida area does not look good.Radar shows precip developing and looks to be on cloudy side most of the night.

Lots of clouds!Front on its way to the north.

Adrian,

Good news for the lake. Unfortunately, at a bad time.

Believe me, up here in the Northeast celestial events are rare, indeed.
127. Inyo 8:49 PM GMT on February 20, 2008 Hide this comment.
I don't understand the link between air pollution and rain.. I saw another study that said particulate pollution from China DECREASES precipitation in the Sierras... so I'm not sure which is accurate, or if both are.

_____________________________________________

Here is an interesting documentary about Global Dimming at:
Link

It starts off talking about just after 9/11, specifically starting on 9/12/01, there was a major drop in end trails in the atmosphere because there were virtually no air craft flying over the US.
Later in the video it discusses how this Global Dimming effects moisture evaporation and how pollution changes how rail drops form and then how together these are hiding the more extreme effects of Global Warming. i.e. if we stopped all of our pollution emissions the global temperature would increase a lot because the sun light would not be blocked by the pollution.
It's about a 50 min documentary.

Here is the wikipedia discription:
Link

Global dimming is the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface that was observed for several decades after the start of systematic measurements in 1950s. It is thought to have been caused by an increase in particulates such as sulfur aerosols in the atmosphere due to human action. The effect varies by location, but worldwide it has been estimated to be of the order of a 4% reduction over the three decades from 1960%u20131990. The trend reversed during the past decade. Global dimming has interfered with the hydrological cycle by reducing evaporation and may have caused droughts in some areas. Global dimming also creates a cooling effect that may have partially masked the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming.

Looks like I might be getting rain - perhaps even a thunder storm - delightful! Gonna walk the dog sooner then later...
so far very clear skies set up in west palm beach,perfect view of the moon, its always cloudy when theirs an eclipse
Looks like I might be getting rain - perhaps even a thunder storm - delightful! Gonna walk the dog sooner then later...
Tropical Cyclone HONDO ADVISORY NUMBER THIRTY-FIVE - Re-issuance of advisories
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R [1005 hPa] located near 18.1S 59.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 59.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.3S 58.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.6S 56.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
---------------------
The residual circulation of Tropical Disturbance Hondo has came back near Mascareignes Island. Low level circulation remains rather well defined. Main thunderstorms activity is present mainly in the northeastern quadrant for the moment. The system is tracking on the northwestern edge of subtropical high pressures. It should curve southeastwards today. Due to gradient effect, strongest winds associated to this residual vortex could reach near gale force winds up to 72 hours.

Although this system is weak and is not forecasted to re-intensify it should generated very disturbed weather over Mauritius on the 22nd and Reunion Island on the 23rd.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORIES.
Has anyone else noticed the T-storm activity East-Southeast of Gavleston Texas?

Nice little spin with some storms.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/70070?from=36hr_maps&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=rada r" target="_blank">Link
Yes, tillou.....we track the severe weather on this blog.
Took this pic about 30 minutes ago with wifes digital camera cause my HD camcorder is at work.

142. P451
I'm all set for more winter up here in Mass.,still too early to think of spring,and don't forget Punxatauney Phil saw his shadow

I've been clamoring for a good snow storm all year.

It looks like I'll get at least a taste down here in Jersey from Thursday Night to Saturday Afternoon.

Who knows how the forecast will change and how the storm will pan out by tomorrow though. I have noticed a continued problem with forecasting New Jersey weather this season. So many forecasts changing dramatically with each successive run.

From predicting huge storms to getting nothing - no fewer than 8 times so far this year - so it's pretty much an I'll believe it when I see it yet again.
Interesting. CTV.ca is reporting the navy did indeed launch its SM-3 missile at US-193 defunct spy satellite...and hit it on the first try.
Happened during the peak of the luner eclipse at 10:30pm EST

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080219/navy_satellite_080220/20080220?hub=CTV NewsAt11
Severe weather is starting early this morning. Already some warnings out for parts of southeastern Louisiana. In addition to that, there's this, which is in effect until 11:00 AM CDT:



And it's expected to get worse tonight. Stay alert.
Navy Missile Hits Satellite, Pentagon Says
No Confirmation It Ruptured Tank Containing Toxic Fuel Link
Current NOLA radar Link
Dr. Masters
You usually do much better with your statistics that this, unless you are just showing normal statistics.
If 21 of 29 basins experience 100 year floods over the course of 100 years, that sounds very normal. I'm wondering why 8 of them didn't get their typical 100 year flood but chalk that up to natural variation.
That about half of them occured in the second half of the century is perfectly normal bordering on duh.
That isn't even an increase, it is just typical.
oops, some of the comments I didn't see said the same thing.
Thanks for confirmation
PPS
We have had NexRad data available for watershed modeling for a couple of years now. It has been a great boon flood management and water quality modeling. Now we are getting evapotranspiration data with temperature over the same 2k grid. this is GREAT! We know what is going up, what is comming down, and what is running off. All we are missing is what is soaking in and we have the complete hydrologic cycle!
We will see how well it works with the models.
GM Storm,thanks for the synopsis,we are ready for some winter weather here in Mass.
6.3 quake rattles northeastern Nevada



24 minutes ago



ELKO, Nev. - A strong earthquake shook rural northeastern Nevada Thursday, and there were early reports of damage in some communities, authorities said.

ADVERTISEMENT


The quake had a preliminary magnitude of 6.3 and was reported at 6:16 a.m., according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It was centered in a sparsely populated area 11 miles southeast of Wells near the Nevada-Utah line.

"It was pretty bad," said Jane Kelso, who answered the phone at the Motel 6. "Everything in our whole building shook. "We have cracks in our walls."

The temblor was felt across eastern Nevada, Utah and as far away as Southern California. Elko County Undersheriff Rocky Gonzalez said there were unconfirmed reports of some damage to buildings.
153. StormW 3:45 PM GMT on February 21, 2008
151. NEwxguy 10:18 AM EST on February 21, 2008
GM Storm,thanks for the synopsis,we are ready for some winter weather here in Mass.


Guess you guy's are going to have winter forever!

nah the groundhog said only 6 more weeks,which should take us till the middle of march.
Anyone have recent updates on the impending ice storm for the Washington DC area? It looks like some of the models are keeping the air cold enough for all freezing rain and sleet tomorrow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDO ADVISORY NUMBER THIRTY-EIGHT - Upgraded to Tropical Depression
=============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.0S 59.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds within 15 NM radius from the center extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.2S 58.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 56.2E - 50 knots? (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.0S 51.6E - 50 knots? (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
---------------------
Former Tropical Storm Hondo is quasi-stationary for about the last 10 hours. It is expected to track again slowly southwestward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures within the night. It could intensify gradually but intensity forecasting remains delicate.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
=============================
At 15:00 PM UTC, RSMC Reunion has issued a Yellow Alert for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
More flooding? Tell that to the folks in the desert SouthEast and the folks around Lake Okeechobee......
Whoa, look at this:

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Franklin County in Florida...
this includes the city of Carrabelle...
southern Liberty County in Florida...
Wakulla County in Florida...
this includes the city of Crawfordville...
eastern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* until 745 PM EST/645 PM CST/

* at 546 PM CST/646 PM EST/... National Weather Service Doppler radar
indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms were located
along a line extending from 11 miles south of Blountstown to port
St. Joe... and moving east at 40 mph.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Carrabelle by 730 PM EST...
Crawfordville by 745 PM EST...
Korintheman, saw your post about bad names for hurricanes.My vote is for hurricane Fifi in 74.
All eyes then turn to the rapidly developing storm in the eastern Pacific currently 500-1000 miles north of the Hawaiian Islands. This storm, according to all forecast models, will exhibit classic cyclogenesis through baroclinic processes (with a well-defined warm front, warm southerly inflow on the east side of the low, very cold air aloft wrapping around the west side of the low, a developing jet stream of over 150 kts preceding the low and allowing for divergence aloft and rapid deepening of the surface low, etc). This system will be a real treat to watch develop over the next 48 hours–it will be something more reminiscent of a cyclonic winter storm that might develop over the Plains States (which would, in that location, produce heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions in the north and severe thunderstorms further south along the cold front). The impacts of such a system in CA will be quite different, but potentially very impressive nonetheless. For such a strong and unusually well-developed storm, the models have come into remarkable agreement over the past 48 hours, rapidly deepening the surface low to about 975 mb as the cyclone reaches a point 500 nm west of San Francisco. The low will be vertically stacked (low pressure at the surface will be directly under the low pressure aloft) and this will eventually lead to the demise of the low as it begins to move ashore (though the models have decreased the amount of weakening that is expected to take place before it makes landfall between Cape Mendocino and San Francisco). It is important to note that a low of this depth is extremely rare this close to the CA coast, and also that the models do tend to underestimate the degree to which cyclonic storms undergoing explosive deepening (bombogenesis) will actually do so. Therefore–I currently expect a powerful storm to impact NorCal later Saturday into Sunday. At the moment, it appears that this storm may be comparable to the January 4th storm of this year (which brought widespread wind damage and flooding to NorCal). There is the potential for this storm to be either significantly stronger or significantly weaker than this benchmark event, however, due to the undertainties regarding the depth of the low and the rate at which it weakens as it moves ashore. Intense rainfall and very strong winds are almost a guarantee at this point, however; it’s just a question of magnitude. Also interesting to note is the thermodynamic profile of this system as it nears the coast–there is a significant chance of dynamically-forced convective activity even well ahead of the cold front. There will be a secondary enhanced potential for thunderstorms as the low core moves ashore and colder air aloft moves in on Sunday. There may be some potential for severe storms at some point this weekend in NorCal. SoCal will see rain out of this event, but not too much–the Transverse Range will see locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area California
420 PM PST Thursday Feb 21 2008

A very potent storm system will move to the coast over the weekend.
The surface low deepens 19 mb in a 12 hour period per the 12z GFS...from
996 mb at 00z Sat to 977 mb by 12z Sat. The low deepens to 976 mb
near 38/130 by 00z sun. Warm frontal rains will develop Sat morning.
Rain will increase Sat afternoon and continue heavy at times Sat night...
before decreasing to showers Sunday. Rainfall could cause some Hydro
problems on the orographically favored areas...with the winds nearly
perpendicular to the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains. The big
news with this system will be the very strong winds associated with
this system. The gradient tightens up to 28 mb late Sat afternoon along
the coast from Arcata-Santa Barbara per the GFS. 925 mb winds
increase to 60 to 65 knots Sat afternoon...and remain near 50 knots right into
Sunday morning
. As a result...a high wind watch will be issued for
the whole district from Sat noon through middle morning Sunday.


TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDO ADVISORY NUMBER THIRTY-NINE
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.4S 59.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds within 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 75 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.7S 58.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.6S 54.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.9S 49.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
---------------------
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hondo is now shifting very slowly southwestwards. METEOSAT7 Imagery shows a warming deep convective activity near the center and a broken curved band. Environmental conditions are difficult in the border of a quick southeasterly windshear line existing west of 57E. The ridge effect in the western edge of the system is expected to weaken. Therefore Ex-Hondo is forecasted to accelerate on a southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Environment should remain neutral to favorable within the next 36 to 48 hours, so the system could gradually intensify but forecasting of intensity remains delicate. Beyond 48 hours the system is expected to undergo an inforcing easterly windshear and a less and less energetic potential.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
=============================
At 0:00 AM UTC, A Yellow Alert remains in effect for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
Whohoo, look at me. I have a degree in marketing and a minor in broadcast communications...

Earlier this afternoon a twit on the weather channel let us know that there was a tornado warning in Avoyelles County in Louisiana, which she pronounced in such a way that it rhymed with Martinez (as in with a real Hispanic accent). How refreshing.

The weather channel really does find the best people for the job, far more about advertising than meteorology and, obviously, geography.
O boy..well, Dad said once, "if ya being quoted,,they talking about you." LOL
Web Dictionary AKA Bloggers on GW Debates.

Coolie "Defined".."someone who is frigid in thinking"
Once again..someone body slams the linkmaster out of context. "Coolie" is an endearing term for someone who disagree's with the GW crowd. I am neither. Im neutral on it all. But if you have a problem with a post of mine..use wu-mail instead of doing this BS here.

I have no shame. Im a Jarhead.
has all way if you dont like some one this put them on the Ignore and yet it go and this move on


thats my tip
171. V26R
At it again Lindenii?
How many days you going to go on about this?
Good blog Dr. Masters, thank you.
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
This is a little unusual:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1045 PM CST

* AT 1012 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GEORGETOWN AROUND 1020 PM CST...
HURRICANE LAKE WMA AROUND 1025 PM CST...
AUGUSTA AROUND 1035 PM CST...
PATTERSON AROUND 1040 PM CST...
MCCRORY AROUND 1045 PM CST...


This is from the closest observation site to that warning (at least what I got when I clicked in the middle of it), which shows why it is unusual:

21 21:56 N 10 8.00 Overcast OVC005 31 30 29.90 1012.7 0.09
21 20:56 N 10 3.00 Thunderstorm Light Freezing Rain in Vicinity Fog/Mist OVC003 30 30 29.93 1013.8 0.03 0.03
21 19:56 NE 13 4.00 Fog/Mist OVC003 30 29 29.92 1013.3
21 18:56 N 9 2.50 Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist OVC005 30 29 29.94 1014.0
21 17:56 NE 10 1.75 Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist OVC005 30 29 33 30 29.93 1013.8 0.01 0.06
21 16:56 N 10 1.50 Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist OVC005 30 29 29.95 1014.2
National Watches and Warnings Page Link



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/NCENTRAL NC...MUCH OF VA...MD/DE AND FAR SRN
NJ/SERN PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 220540Z - 221145Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP NWD FROM NRN NC/SRN VA INTO THE
DC METRO AREA/DELAWARE...SERN PA AND SRN NJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC WET-BULB FREEZING LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA SWWD ACROSS FAR SERN VA AND INTO
NCENTRAL NC. INCREASING WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /PER WV
IMAGERY AND VWP DATA/ WAS AIDING IN A RAPID EXPANSION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SRN VA AND NRN NC. IN ADDITION MODERATE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS SUPPORTING INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND
PRECIPITATION RATES OVER SWRN PA/NRN WV. RECENT RAINFALL HAS AIDED
IN THE SFC FREEZING LINE DROPPING SWD THROUGH NRN NC/SERN VA...AND
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DUE TO
WET-BULB AFFECTS. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA WILL SUPPORT A NWD
MOVEMENT OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER INTO NRN VA...THE DC METRO AREA
AND MUCH OF DE/MD...SRN NJ AND SERN PA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL...A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE DC METRO
AREA EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN DE BY 12Z.

..CROSBIE.. 02/22/2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE HONDO ADVISORY NUMBER FORTY
===============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10R [998 hPa] located near 18.6S 59.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Near Gale-Force Winds within 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.6S 57.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 53.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.6S 49.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
---------------------
METEOSAT7 imagery shows a warming deep convective activity near the center and a broken curved band.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hondo has a small size and quickly reacts to the environment. The environment should remain neutral to favorable within the next 24-36 hours, and the system could gradually intensify but intensity forecast remains delicate. Beyond 36 hours, the system is expected to undergo an increasing easterly windshear and weak ocean heat content. The ridge effect along the western edge of the system is expected to weaken, Therefore Ex-Hondo is forecasted to accelerate southwestwards along the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures.

RSMC Reunion Watches/Warnings
=============================
At 6:00 AM UTC, A Yellow Alert remains in effect for the islands of Mauritius and Reunion.
Korintheman, saw your post about bad names for hurricanes.My vote is for hurricane Fifi in 74.

Fifi was bad, but I was referring to naming another tropical cyclone in a different basin Hugo or Ivan.

If a storm was named Fifi, it'd probably be bad. I'm sure it's only coincidence that storms like Ivan and Hugo are bad when applied to other tropical cyclones in different basins, but still, it seems eerie.
180. P451
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/NCENTRAL NC...MUCH OF VA...MD/DE AND FAR SRN
NJ/SERN PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION


Yeah, it's starting to not look good for late morning further north. I've already got 2" of snow and it looks like maybe 2" more on the way before it transitions to sleet and then freezing rain.

Yet, finally, a nice winter storm - it's really the first one of the season for us here in central NJ.

What amazes me is how people still decide to go ahead and plow through it to get to work. "It's not bad I'll get there" a neighbor told me a few minutes ago.

I told her, "Yeah, how about when you have to come home?"

Makes little sense to me to pack the roads with this out there and the promise of more....
181. P451
169. Tazmanian 3:08 AM GMT on February 22, 2008 Hide this comment.
has all way if you dont like some one this put them on the Ignore and yet it go and this move on


thats my tip


Sure, that's good advice, yet it stagnates conversation and debate IMO.

What I don't understand is why some people get so upset with other's opinions. I already got attacked in this blog, and in a prior blog, and I did nothing but state an opinion without attacking anyone.

That's just silly - this whole "agree with me or feel my wrath" clique that roams around here.

What's the point? To those that respond in such a way I have advice: Start your own blog, the three or four of you, lock everyone out of it but yourselves, and just agree with one another relentlessly throughout the day, and there won't be any problems.

To me, that entirely defeats the purpose of an open forum, yet to each their own. The disrespect towards some is unwarranted though.... and I've already received that for no reason other than simply disagreeing with an opinion.

So be it....
That's just silly - this whole "agree with me or feel my wrath" clique that roams around here.

You think it's bad now? Wait until hurricane season.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ERN/PA...SRN NY...CT...RI...NJ...DE...MD
AND NRN VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 221201Z - 221800Z

A MIX OF MOD/HVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP
TO 0.10 INCH /LIQUID EQUIVALENT/ WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION RATES EXPECTED FORM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO THE
NYC METRO AREA/NRN NJ...CT AND RI.

STRONG WAA WAS SUPPORTING A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM
CENTRAL/SERN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ALONG MID-ATLANTIC UNDER THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /40-50 KTS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA AND THE 06Z
IAD SOUNDING/. AS THIS OCCURS...MOST OF NJ/PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND...SCENTRAL/ERN PA AND NRN DELAWARE WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM
SNOW TO MOD/HVY SLEET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ELEVATED
LAYER IS GREATEST IN EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HARRISBURG PA TO THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND CENTRAL NJ AREA BY 18Z. AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM AND GREATEST FORCING LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA...FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z OVER NRN VA...MUCH OF MD AND SRN DE.

FURTHER NORTH...STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUPPORTED BY
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES FROM CENTRAL PA
NEWD INTO FAR SRN NY/CT AND RI THROUGH 18Z...WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF
HVY SNOW /OVER 1 INCH PER HR RATES/ LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 02/22/2008

Speaking of flooding, it would probably benefit us all to learn about how FEMA classifies flood zones and which flood zone that you live in. My motivation as a Floridian is a potential ballot initiative that threatens to take away property tax benefits for people living in certain flood zones. You can find a map that designates your FEMA flood zone classification at the FEMA Map Service Center. An explanation of different FEMA flood hazard zone designations is here.
57. sebastianjer 5:01 AM GMT on February 20, 2008 wrote:
The total increase in global temperatures for the entire 20th century was .6 degC globally. With the warmest year as everyone know being 1998 (EL Nino) Since 1998 temperature have not gone up, now have they?

That is going on a decade without an increase in global temperature. Now what is supposed to happen with increased CO2 ? Temperatures are supposed to rise, correct? They have not, I know you know this but i want to put this into perspective for anyone who just may be lurking.
[...]
The point is this, increased co2 should equal rising temperatures, for the past decade they have not.

-snip-
2005 was warmer than 1998, and 2007 was tied with 1998. What is significant is that 1998 was one of the strongest El Nino years on record. El Nino events raise the global temperature for a year or so, and yet the five-year moving average global temperature has generally continued to rise since 1998. 2008 will most likely not be a top 10 warmest year because of La Nina, but the next strong El Nino looks to smash all previous records for the hottest year yet. Barring a major volcanic eruption, you can lay your money down on that sebastianjer.
g'morning --wow you guys are rocking already!Earthquakes, tornados, ....lots to review today! Taz, enjoyed your post!!!!
188. P451
Just finished shoveling. Up to 4" now and still snowing moderately. Finally a decent storm here in C-NJ

We've already exceeded predicted totals with the entire day and night yet to go. They definitely low balled this forecast.
182. KoritheMan 6:57 AM EST on February 22, 2008 That's just silly - this whole "agree with me or feel my wrath" clique that roams around here.

You think it's bad now? Wait until hurricane season.


It is never out of season to police this blog. It has nothing to do with agreement or disagreement. Has to do with wasted bandwidth especially during a major weather event. WU is #10 on the hit frequency list for whole internet and this blog is regarded as one of the best real-time discussions of tropical weather around. During an event this blog may be frequented by people making life or death decisions so it behooves us all to lay aside our personal egos and pet theories and stay on topic. WU has most generously provided open blog space for anyone who chooses to use it. If anyone has a pet theory or personal gripe or grudge start your own blog. As long as you keep the language and content fit for general audiences you can pretty much say whatever you want. Heck I bet someone could start a "WU is a waste of bandwidth and Dr Masters is a nincompoop" site and as long is it was civil they would let you get away with it. I wouldn't frequent it but that's a free choice.
The 11 year solar cycle is in it's hotter phase, and the Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation is also in it's warm phase. Is that the reason the ice cap is melting and the glaciers are going away?
192. V26R
Biff just to correct you about the Solar Cycle
Currently we are at the extreme bottom of the past cycle waiting for confirmation when the next one has started. It has to do with the
magnetics of reversing poles in the Sunspots
measured by satellite somehow, Once the powers
that be see this occuring, they can decare that the last Solar Cycle has ended and the
new one had begun, Currently for about the
past month or so, Sunspots have been non-existant
If you want more info check out
Http://www.spaceweather.com
193. ljk
this is off topic but i have to point out that on the front page in the synopsis paragraph it says that the temperature in huntsville alabama was 104 degrees yesterday this has to be an error
Good morning everyone,

Nice line of storms pushing across the panhandle of Florida this morning. Seems like the southeast has inherited the bullseye for bad weather this winter/spring.....
Topic of the day is chosen by Dr M. Respectful comments on that not considered off topic as far as I've seen.
Good afternoon!

Just wanted to drop in to post a link to an article a friend of mine at noaa sent to me.Here is a piece of the article.

We found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,%u201D said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA%u2019s National Hurricane Center in Miami. There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.

See Complete Article Here

Also the NWS has backed of somewhat on severe weather for the southeast next week but i will say this its going to bring very cool temps wednesday and thursday.Mid 80's this weekend so get out and enjoy the summer time weather across the area.

www.AdriansWeather.com

Hey JFV
Long time no see

Hurricanes and global warming devastate Caribbean coral reefs

Storm damage from waves and death of vital algae likely to become more common, report warns


Alok Jha, science correspondent
The Guardian,
Thursday January 24 2008

Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the coral reefs in the Caribbean, according to scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would probably become a regular event given current predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change.

According to the report, 2005 was the hottest year on average since records began and had the most hurricanes ever recorded in a season. Large hotspots in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico powered strong tropical hurricanes such as Katrina, which developed into the most devastating storm ever to hit the US.

In addition to the well-documented human cost, the storms damaged coral by increasing the physical strength of waves and covering the coast in muddy run-off water from the land. The higher sea temperature also caused bleaching, in which the coral lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. The reefs then lose their colour and become more susceptible to death from starvation or disease.

Impacts

Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of the IUCN's global marine programme, said: "Sadly for coral reefs, it's highly likely extreme warming will happen again. When it does, the impacts will be even more severe. If we don't do something about climate change, the reefs won't be with us for much longer." Some of the worst-hit regions of the Caribbean, which contains more than 10% of the world's coral reefs, included the area from Florida through to the French West Indies and the Cayman Islands. In August 2005 severe bleaching affected between 50% and 95% of coral colonies and killed more than half, mostly in the Lesser Antilles.

The IUCN report highlights pressures on coral reefs in addition to those of overfishing and pollution identified in recent years. A recent study found that reefs near large human populations suffered the most damage.

Coral reefs are an important part of the marine ecosystem, supporting an estimated 25% of all marine life including more than 4,000 species of fish. They provide spawning, nursery, refuge and feeding areas for a wide variety of other creatures such as lobsters, crabs, starfish and sea turtles. Reefs also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines from storms.

"It's quite clear that the structure and their function as they are right now in the Caribbean is quite severely impeded," said Lundin. "Over the next few decades we will see a large reduction in the number of reef areas."

Reefs also boost the local economy - in the Caribbean coral reefs provide more than $4bn (2bn) a year from fisheries, scuba-diving tourism and shoreline protection. According to an analysis by the World Resources Institute: Reefs at Risk, coral loss in the region could cost the local economy up to $420m every year.

Damaging

"The only possible way to sustain some live coral on the reefs around the world," said the report, "will be to carefully manage the direct pressures like pollution, fishing and damaging coastal developments, and hope that some coral species are able to adapt to the warmer environment."

Lundin said managing these more direct pressures on reefs would lessen the impact of rising sea temperatures. "Over time we'll also see transitional species; if we give nature enough time it's possible some coral will actually cope with the warmer water and we'll get another composition of the reef," he said.

Despite this, the report concluded that a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the next 20 years would be "critical to control further warming and dangerously high CO2 levels that will probably reduce the robustness and competitive fitness of corals and limit the habitats for many other organisms living on Caribbean coral reefs".

The report was compiled from data and observations of coral bleaching from more than 70 coral reef workers and volunteer divers, and was launched to coincide with the first day of the International Year of the Reef 2008, a global campaign coordinating activities by 225 organisations in 50 countries to raise awareness about the value of coral reefs and the threats they face.
Backstory

The 2005 hurricane year broke all records, with 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. In July, the unusually strong Hurricane Dennis struck Grenada, Cuba and Florida, while Hurricane Emily set a record as the strongest to hit the Caribbean before August. Hurricane Katrina in August was the most devastating storm to hit the US, causing massive damage around New Orleans. Hurricane Rita passed through the Gulf of Mexico to strike Texas and Louisiana in September. Hurricane Wilma in October was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record and caused major damage in Mexico. The season ended in December when tropical storm Zeta formed, before petering out in January. Many of these hurricanes caused considerable damage to the reefs via wave action and run-off of muddy, polluted freshwater.

Story: Link
201. Whit
One must not be quick to base increased heavy rain events on global warming. Consider the fact that Western weather patterns have been significantly altered in recent years by the El Nino and La Nina effects. Don't play the "global warming" card just because it sounds cool. The evidence is simply not there as sufficiently as many scientists claim.
Good afternoon all! Hope everyone is doing fine and getting ready to enjoy the upcoming weekend. I'm watching that storm Taz since it could have a major impact here in Florida with a huge temperature drop late this upcoming week.
Hmmmm, just dropped in cchsweatherman - what's up with this storm you are expecting in FL. Bascially when & where --lots of rain, would appreciate your input as I have horses to exercise this weekend for a major polo game. thanks
Checked the weekly forecast and it gives only 30 percent chance --cchsWeatherman are you seein g more here then meets the eye?
Taking a look at the latest models, I'm expecting there could be some strong storms and showers coming Wednesday. The NWS has already begun talking about this system in their discussions and it is mainll calling for a dramatic temperature drop coming Wednesday night and Thursday morning. We will have to wait and see about this system.
Like I have stated before surfmom, I make my own forecasts. I must reiterate the fact that I'm only an amateur meteorologist, so do not rely on my forecast too much.
Wow. Isn't this an interesting thread.

I'm from Gloucester in the sw of England and last 'summer' we had some of the worst flooding ever. It was truly amazing to see.

Roads that don't appear to be near water were several feet under... Fields submerged... River levels beating all historic highs...

I found some pics to add to the shots of mayhem:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire/content/articles/2007/07/23/flood_gallery_feature.shtml

Apparently, for us at least, a real issue is that the River Severn hasn't been dredged in over 20 years. The buildup of silt is apparently so great that the bottom of the river is 30 feet higher than it used to be.
How's everything been JFV? Hope school's treating you well.
Thanks for the heads up cchsWeathermen, I know you are not a PRO, but you often have keen observations. Off to dinner thanks for your time
Powerful storm cranking up off the West Coast. NWS has the low center "bombing" off northern California. Storm wind warning already hoisted for the outer waters, likely to extend to the coast by tomorrow. Large waves expected. Damaging winds expected onshore in northern and central California, perhaps a repeat of January's megastorm. Rainfall is expected to be very heavy. Snowfall in the Sierras will add several feet to the already ample snowpack.
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
are weekend storm now has a eye-like feature
waves to everyone...
Good Saturday morning to all:

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A combination of dry confluent flow at 200 mb and a weak surface pressure pattern is allowing fair skies and tranquil conditions to exist across Mexico, the Northwestern Gulf, Texas and parts of the Deep South. Rawinsonde data and surface observations indicate that a fair amount of moisture remains within the surface layer and thus low clouds and fog may result across some parts. Meanwhile, an upper level high situated over the Caribbean is producing southwesterly upper level flow over much of the Southeastern Gulf with upper level moisture producing scattered to broken mid-upper level cloudiness from the Eastern Bay of Campeche to the Florida Peninsula and beyond. A surface cold front extends from 23N/90W to the Florida Panhandle, enhancing the moisture plume outlined. Due to the weak surface pressure pattern, winds and seas will remain light with swells below 5 ft for the next 12-24 hrs.

Scattered cloudiness and showers are invading the Southwest North Atlantic in association with a frontal system driven by southwesterly upper level flow around the aforementioned upper ridge. Meanwhile, surface high pressure ridging dominates the area anchored by a 1029 mb near 31N/43W. This ridge is aiding in mostly fair weather and producing light to moderate anticyclonic flow across the Atlantic ahead of the moisture plume.

by W456
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and very dry stable flow covers most of the Caribbean Basin this morning thereby hindering any shower activity and allowing fair conditions to exist at the surface. High pressure ridging remains in control providing 10-25 knot easterly flow, which is driving 6-10 ft swells through the region. The trades are also seen advecting an abundance of high-pressure stratocumulus from the Atlantic, across the Islands to 70W and across the Northwest Caribbean north of 15N and west of 70W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

An upper trough axis roughly lies from 30N/50W to 12N/55W. Very dry confluent stable confluent flow is seen from the Islands to 45W with mid-upper cloudiness and possible showers seen from the ITCZ near 10N/45W to beyond 20N/25W near the Cape Verdes Islands. The surface Azores High is analyzed 1030 mb at 40N/40W. This high is producing a large area of moderate to strong trades and fair weather across the Atlantic with only stable stratocumulus embedded within this flow.

BY W456
Thanks for the weather & pics...looks like the wet is passing above me here in SRQ,so off to the barn to get the four-leggeds moving & groovin. Maybe a small shot of puny waves late this afternoon. adios
207. cchsweatherman 4:59 PM EST on February 22, 2008
Like I have stated before surfmom, I make my own forecasts. I must reiterate the fact that I'm only an amateur meteorologist, so do not rely on my forecast too much.


What is this? Humility on a WU blog? From one so young?

Refreshing
Correction the following contains a Major Error. The WU mentioned was the 1960's Leftest Radical group the Weathermen. Other than the tongue in cheek inside joke explained in the History of WU They have no connection to this site. I have stripped all identifying information from the post but have let it stand to maintain continuity in the discussion. Again THIS BLOG CONTAINS A MAJOR ERROR.
Shen

I was channel surfing last night watching the political news (FOX, CNN, MSNBC, ETC) and on MSNBC they were talking about Obama and some of the "hits" he was taking (MSNBC is obviously way way for Obama, CNN supports Hillary and of course, Fox leans toward McCain) anyway, Keith Obrian was talking about the blogs picking on poor Obama and he mentioned a "hit" on him from Weatherunderground! nothing more was said about it and I was stunned. Do any of you recall which blog this was in and when it was posted???

NO WAY!!! Do news people now read our WU blogs for news??? ISN'T THAT CRAZY!!!

*******************
The eyes of the world are literally focused upon us. Are we going to look like a bunch of bickering buffoons or or intelligent people worthy of respect? The choice is ours not admin's they can only act after the fact. This kind of notoriety is bound to attract some of the lunatic fringe. Do we tolerate their ravings and antics in some mistaken notion of "free speech" or do we accept that is an open forum dedicated to public discussion of serious issues and those who distract or disrupt this assembly will be respectfully but firmly held to the standards of public discourse? The constitution protects the "right of the people to peaceably assemble" not hold a riot. As one who has gulped more lung-fulls of tear gas than all the chicken-hawks in DC combined attempting to nonviolently protect that right I submit that we must hold each other to the highest standards of public discourse.
Central Florida and the Tampa area......here it is:



Thank God for the NY Times they have upriled the Republican party with their attack and it really does not matter who wins on the Democratic party. Independents are also upset with this attack that was leaning toward Obama. Thank you NY Times....lol
looks like we are about to get some rain
226. TampaSpin 9:13 AM EST on February 23, 2008

Hey TS, long time no see. you got mail
Good morning everyone!:) That rain has been over me for about two hours now, here in Hernando county, fl. We sure need it!!
Have a good day, and please stay safe!
Hi Shen....good to hear from ya. You got mail back at you ......dont fall out of your chair....lol
Good morning JFV
Please Kind sir's, May I have the Early seasonal Prediction's on the Atlantic Basin tropics?

Good morning!

235. JFV 11:12 AM AST on February 23, 2008

Can you believe that it is almost the month of March already? Before we know it, the infamous June 1st date will arrive.

You got that right ... time is really moving along at a fast rate, Pre Season predictions will soon begin...

2008 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast
Link



Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008 - PDF Format Link


Morning to you JFV....
Right under that front in E. Cent Fl. Just rain here.
Things could change for the atlantic this season as i think unfavorable conditions could be around this season with the main threat being similar to what we saw back in 07.It will be interesting to see if colorado state university lower there numbers a bit on there next update.

Will see how things evolve in the comings weeks and months and always remember it only takes one.

Found this Seasonal Euro Tropical Precip Forecast rather interesting across the atlantic!

www.AdriansWeather.com
Create a Family Hurricane Plan today Link
Radar might be showing a vortex just north west of Tampa
There appears to be some rotation just off St. Petersburg beach area.
CORRECTION Post # 224 by this writer contains a MAJOR ERROR. Reference to the Weather Underground in the TV show was not to this site. They were discussing a ridiculous attempt to tie Presidential Candidate Obama to the 60's radical group by the same name. (bet the founders if this site have had second thoughts about an inside university joke LoL)

My apologies to all
Shen
Hey Pat!

Thats a create link for hurricane preparations infact its on my front page on my website.Here is the page i dedicated to hurricane preparedness on my site.
Thats a good link for a home page 23. Many will benefit from that site.
i dont get these preseason forecasts. What good are these forecasts if conditions keep changing from June 1 to September 10. La Nina could move into nuetral (which is bad) or it could stay strong. We just dont kno. I predict that tropical storms will form this hurricane season....lol...the most accurate forecast around.
87-88 degress across miami at 1:30!Could we hit 90?Probably not.Cool change coming mid-week possibly for the last time thankgod.
It looks like Fl is likely to get some well below normal temps mid-week. In the past 3 days the forecast for next wed night's low has gone from 48 to 37 for odessa. And this cold weather is to be proceeded by a very strong front in Tues. night.
Using Remote Sensing Tools To Analyze A Cold Front

QuikSCAT - cold front plotted along the axis of changes in wind speed and wind direction. Usually, northerly, northwesterly or westerly winds behind the front and southerly or southeasterly ahead of the front. There is also a pronounce return flow ahead the frontal boundary where the associated upper trough causes the surface high to migrate from west to east.

Satellite Imagery (Visible) - frontal rope structures caused by differential advection. In addition, you can look at the different cloud structures and features. Deep clouds along the front and rapid dissipation of clouds behind the front due to dry air advection.

Total Precipitable Water (TPW) - an excellent tool. The difference between this and water vapor imagery is that TPW measures water content mainly in the lower atmosphere whereas water vapor measures water content within the mid-upper levels. Thus, TPW is better at identifying surface features (I use it to track tropical waves as well). Low TPW values behind the front while high precipitable values along the front.

Time Lags So Extrapolate

During the time of the analysis, the data used maybe taken at different times, which can lead to differences in position by a couple hundred nautical miles. For example, the below satellite imagery is taken at 1415 UTC while the QuikSCAT pass was at 1156 UTC. A simple solution is to extrapolate the QuikSCAT position and this will help position the front where it was difficult or impossible in satellite imagery.

Just A Few

These are just three of several remote sensing tools. They include model derived data (Numerical Models) and satellite soundings.

Hurricane Season 08

These tools will be more than helpful in tracking tropical waves and storms across West Africa, the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, where there are few surface synoptic reports, aircraft observations and radiosonde data available.





Image Source: CIMSS


by W456

Hi everyone, sorry for the confusion this morning and Thanks Shen for the posts of course it was ok to post it.LOL

We broke records all over my area today in SE Florida.

just checked while ago and it was 92 degrees already...
at 2:06pm, in Weston, FL (Broward County just west of Ft. Lauderdale)

91.6 °F / 33.1 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 65 °F / 18 °C
Wind: 5.8 mph / 9.3 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the SW
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph / 9.3 km/h
Pressure: 30.03 in / 1016.8 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 94 °F / 34 °C
that was for zip 33331 but checked Ft Lauderdale and my area 33321 and it is only 86 degrees... I guess because Weston is further West near the Everglades... but it is HOT outside right now here in Weston.
89 degress at MIA.
SEFLAGAMMA-With these lengthy warm spells and short cold snaps,do you think the gulf of mexico will warmer than usual by the time hrricane season arrives?
Take a day like today and Think of what you'd have to do if a Hurricane Warning was issued today. Even if you just jot down some plans and crunch some numbers and evac routes. Include the whole family and make it fun too.


Not here..we behind the front..But Thurs and Fri with 7 inch rain totals sure did. Was bumpy.
But I see the warmth and Humidity is summer-like in your neck of the woods.
267. 0741
wow it feel like spring have taking over with temp in 90s my ac running like crazy
3:30PM Rain just hit SRQ. Thanks to WU had perfect timing today, horses got worked out, and the polo match ended just before the rain appeared.

Very HOT here in SRQ and the Gulf is running the warmest it has since I have been surfing. Last year it went down to 50 and hung out there...I do not think it managed to get below 56 degrees this winter, will go back later and check. The Gomex by the SRQ/Tampa area is already 68 degrees!!!!
Thankfully, being on the blog I saw the hot coming in for this weekend, so all we had all the trailer topped out with water in the tanks so we could hose the horses down. They do not do well with this constant switching from a brief cold front to heat. They tighten up when they get quick cold flashes and we have to work much harder to avoid injuries.
270. V26R
Hey Pat, think you could have made that Pix any bigger?
PATRAP-Is there a web sight to retrieve sattelite photos of the hurricanes listed in storm history archives?
V26R, the Pic is fine on FireFox.
Must be ya browser.

Its a Big message anyway.
Hydrus One can use the hurricane archive on the Tropical Page of wunderground for radar landfall loops. But for Specific storm Sat Pix,.. just Google the Storm Name and year in Google images. Thats what I usually do.
275. V26R
Pat
Browser is Fine, Just a massive Pix
And I hope they did get your message!
276. V26R
That works for me also Hydrus
Google has a large archive of images
available
Okay...V26R ,I modified it a lil,the pic..LOL
V26R AND PATRAP-Thank you for responding to my post.I have been studying weather for a long time,but I am a beginner on the computer & sometimes have trouble finding the information I need.computers sure have changed over the years.
Thats okay, I started with webtv a few years back
PATRAP-I started on a Tandy(Radio Shack) 64K in 1980.You probrably rememeber that one.
1980..Yup,went to Boot Camp in July 80, Carter was still President.
Anything past "77" though,
getting a lil fuzzzy now . LOL!!!
PATRAP-Thanks again,just finished the google search on Charley & Jeanne.I survived both of them.
Hey Seflagamma, better get your winter clothes out, Thursday the LOW with be 50, and thats cold for your part of the world!
P.S. enjoy the warm temps now.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO....

The upper level pattern across much of the Gulf region continues to maintain a relatively dry airmass leading to much subsidence, hindering any development of vertical clouds. A combination of weak surface pressure pattern and moisture within the surface layer is leading to scattered to broken stratus and fog across the area from the Mexican Gulf Coastal Plain, the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W and north of 25N from Coastal Texas/Louisiana to the Florida Peninsula. The surface pressure pattern is also allowing fair skies to dominate the area with winds and seas remaining exceptionally light today with light variable winds below 10 knots and seas of 2-3 ft across the entire Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a cold front goes from 26N/89W across Florida near Lake Okeechobee. Most of moisture along this feature is in the form if mid-upper level cloudiness driven by southwesterly upper winds.

by W456
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The upper level pattern across much of the Gulf region continues to maintain a relatively dry airmass leading to much subsidence, hindering any development of vertical clouds. A combination of weak surface pressure pattern and moisture within the surface layer is leading to scattered to broken stratus and fog across the area from the Mexican Gulf Coastal Plain, the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W and north of 25N from Coastal Texas/Louisiana to the Florida Peninsula. In addition to that, a rope cloud is seen pushing across the Northwest Gulf from the Texas/Mexican Border to just south of the Mississippi Delta. This feature is identified as a cold front due to the change in wind direction reported by synoptic stations. The surface pressure pattern is also allowing fair skies to dominate the area with winds and seas remaining exceptionally light today with light variable winds below 10 knots and seas of 2-3 ft across the entire Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a second cold front goes from 26N/89W across Florida near Lake Okeechobee. Most of moisture along this feature is in the form if mid-upper level cloudiness driven by southwesterly upper winds.

A relatively weak cold front is pushing across the Atlantic from South Florida to beyond 34N/60W. Showers are possible in clusters of shallow to moderate clouds along the frontal boundary west of 75W. Very weak surface pressure pattern exist ahead of the front allowing fair weather and very light winds over the area.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and very dry stable flow covers most of the Caribbean Basin this morning thereby hindering any shower activity and allowing fair conditions to exist at the surface. High pressure ridging remains in control providing 10-25 knot easterly flow, which is driving 6-10 ft swells through the region. This easterly flow will bring clusters shallow cloudiness with possible showers to the Lesser Antilles and along the Central America Isthmus further downstream.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W....

An upper trough axis roughly lies from 40N/30W to the island of Saint Lucia near 13N/61W. Very dry confluent stable flow is seen from the Islands to 45W with a pronounce flow of mid-upper cloudiness and possible showers seen from the ITCZ near 10N/50W to beyond 20N/30W. The surface Azores High is analyzed 1028 mb at 33N/30W. This high is producing a large area of moderate to strong trades, 6-10 ft northeast swells and fair weather across the Atlantic with only scattered dry air stratocumulus embedded within this flow.

by W456
Good afternoon!

Really enjoyed this weekend with these really warm temps but unfortunately we'll have to deal with what looks to be a pretty significant cool-down around mid-week.Hopefully this is one of the last ones cause this cold weather is really getting old especially if you have to get up early morning in 40 degress weather.Bring on the summertime temps! Adrian

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STORMS.


TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ON A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. ON THURSDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES AND NORTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY COULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S. WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.


www.AdriansWeather.com
the section in italics was just added in
thank god for this cold front. after the last few days we need a cool down
good day to you also
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
life is treating me pretty good jfv.
299. MrSea
Its almost hurricane season!
we don't use the "H" word in here until it's time. lol
We are at T-4 Months 6 days and 11:30 hours intill
the 2008 hurricane season. The WeatherUnderGround now deciding a Go-No Go for start of Pre-hurricane season forcasts. At the T-1 Month start we are go/no go for an eariler start to the hurricane season. This is Weatherunderground Control. The possibilty for a Pre-Season system in looks at this time, with a go/no-go system up for this at around the 1 Month mark.
289. JFV 1:12 PM AST on February 24, 2008
Hey Weather456, could we expect to see severe weather down here on Wednesday afternoon, prior to that very potent cold front moving through?


if is FL u live, then scattered t-storms with a 30% chance of severe weather, warm Feb 24-29. I feel that its a good chance knowing the warm-air adevection will be larger than normal.
JFV heres a NOAA link for that, suggest bookmarking this puppy. Link
March,April,May..Thats 90 days right there according to my calender..a lil more than 100 days I believe to H-saeason
..anytime JFV, Glad to contribute.
298. JFV 1:28 PM AST on February 24, 2008
Hey Patraph what's the current position of the bermuda high, out in the Atlantic Ocean right now?


I know I'm not Patrap but the Azores High is the dominate high right now. Ususally this time, the Bermuda High is transitory in nature due those strong cold front pushing off the US East Coiast. Right now there is cold front pushing across the area then the high will build up again.

But the question is- is that really the Bermuda High? or should we call it the Bermuda High? I'm not sure becuz the Bermuda High is tall and maintained by subsidence. Those transitory highs are cold core in nature and shallow, usually not extending upwards more than 600 mb.
Every year brings the same threat of a strike. Number of storms dont necessarily mean more Impacts..and a slow year dosent mean any less of a Threat. Andrew in 92 is a good example of the latter. Big storm, Bad impact..and the A storm it was..a late starting season 92 was.

Preparation is the Key to being ready for whatever the season brings.
we have to wait alot more. The time we waited from Nov 30 to now is approx. 3 months...we have another 3 months to go.
As you all remember, in 2007, the US was sparred, because the Carribian was shreaded by 2 CAT 5 hurricanes within a few weeks.
lets just put it this way . This season i'm going to be watching the bermuda high very closely and hopefully not have another 2004.
317. hahaguy 1:51 PM AST on February 24, 2008
lets just put it this way . This season i'm going to be watching the bermuda high very closely and hopefully not have another 2004.


yep...also watch the position and movement of the climatological upper trof over the Eastern US. That cud help recurve most storms to spare u guys this yr.
i almost forgot about that 456 good point.
The blog here usually gets pretty hectic during landfalling canes ,but the wunderground only provides what you see. Info.

Jeff Masters entry here August 28th 2005 entry Link

god patrap i remember the past few years it was like a madhouse in here. all of the wishcasters are in here and you get really aggrivated.
Snow showers in N.C mountains. Accumalation around 2inches along the western slopes.Other mountain areas could see around a inch.Eastern slopes - Flurries/Sprinkles.Moisture is mainly limited to around 1500f.t to 4000 f.t.Below should be partly cloudy.

Also, V.A,T.N and W.V could see snow showers in the mountain areas.
This is Weatherunderground control at T- 4 Months and counting, the first forcasts from the weather underground Mission Controlers now begining to start pre-season forcast's for this years Atlantic
Hurricane season, this is Weatherunderground Control.
Your Tax dollars at work now, and more. Link

NOAA 2008 Budget Link
My FEMA trailer RANT: Link
god patrap i remember the past few years it was like a madhouse in here. all of the wishcasters are in here and you get really aggrivated.

I've learned my lesson about that. Just ignore wishcasters and downcasters. Not necessarily put them on your Ignore List, but if they repeatedly wishcast and downcast, I'll do it this season.

What I want is a good, helpful, and civil discussion about the tropics during hurricane season. Not a rant about a storm forming or not forming. I've learned not to argue with people anymore either.
337. KoritheMan 8:19 PM PST on February 24, 2008
god patrap i remember the past few years it was like a madhouse in here. all of the wishcasters are in here and you get really aggrivated.

I've learned my lesson about that. Just ignore wishcasters and downcasters. Not necessarily put them on your Ignore List, but if they repeatedly wishcast and downcast, I'll do it this season.

What I want is a good, helpful, and civil discussion about the tropics during hurricane season. Not a rant about a storm forming or not forming. I've learned not to argue with people anymore either



same here
StormW....your post #333 was very interesting and I think that this early what you said was about as good as it gets right now.
Thanks for the insight.
Wow you guys are far more interesting then the newspaper this morning. Great piece StormW and Taz...yes you have the right perspective on things. My favorite quote" NEVER TRY TO TEACH A PIG TO SING, IT ONLY ANNOYS THE PIG AND FUSTRATES YOU"

With that said, in my search for upcoming waves (tues afternoon-wednesday am,Gomex) I noticed that the water by me SRQ is 72 degrees & 69 degrees up in Tampa --I don't think I recall such a warm gulf ever at this time of year --may be wrong on this will start to check this out --but it seems like the gulf is mighty warm already.
with this neverending winter here in the northeast,its nice to get some tropical discussions started even if its a litte premature.
newxweatherguy, we are rockin HOT down here. Polo season is held in FL as they figure temps. in the 70's. Yesterday's polo match was a test of heat endurance. While we usually body clip the horses just once in the season...we are all groaning as it looks like we are going to have to clip again (a very tedious job that neither horse or groom enjoys) although we do it because the horses can cool far more rapidly with less of a coat. Light NOT temperature signals the horse's body to keep a winter coat. Once we have longer daylight they begin to shed to a lighter summer coat. but they are still, based on light, in the winter fur growing mode --so it's more work for us. Especially with this early heat. The weather is very influential regarding health issues as well. Going rapidly from HOT to cold (when these fronts come in) is a real instigator for colic - which can actually kill a horse. As well as the reverse quick changes from cold to hot, because then the horses have not stayed hydrated enough (they drink less in the cold) to handle the sudden extreme heat.

Worse for us here in FL is the drought. ALL pastures are suffering and not replenishing good grass, even when the pastures are "resting". Hay bales, alfalfa, prices are off the wall due to shortages, high demand =-poor pastures so we must supplement, as well as increase fuel prices trickling down the ladder. The very wealthy can ride this out, but the middle guys are seriously hurting.

In theory I always knew how important weather is in regards to history and the actions of humans and animals. Now that i work so closely with horses the theory is a very big and sobering reality
Good morning StormW!!!! here for just a bit this AM --Good to see you
Hi everyone,
first of all I have to agree with surfmom, the blog is very informative today. Thank you very much for the input on the relations between weather events and horses and the concise outlooks for the 2008 season and other weather stuff. I enjoyed reading it.

337. KoritheMan 8:19 PM PST on February 24, 2008
god patrap i remember the past few years it was like a madhouse in here. all of the wishcasters are in here and you get really aggrivated.

I've learned my lesson about that. Just ignore wishcasters and downcasters. Not necessarily put them on your Ignore List, but if they repeatedly wishcast and downcast, I'll do it this season.

What I want is a good, helpful, and civil discussion about the tropics during hurricane season. Not a rant about a storm forming or not forming. I've learned not to argue with people anymore either

During high season I used to click on the [-] button in the upper right corner of each post if I decide that the post is not worth to be read. This way I can shorten each page significantly and I have a good overview who is constantly wishcasting or downcasting since in this case I only see message header with the username and the time of the post. Once I have more than 10 of the same person in one blog entry that's the yellow card and if that happens again it's the red -> latest addition on my ignore list.
This system worked quite well last season and it helped me to reduce 3000 or more comments on one blog entry occasionally by a quarter or even more.

Let's see how things will turn out after June 1st, I hope for a smaller number of trolls and wishcasters.

Greetings from sunny Helsinki
tipsku
Good morning,

Thanks StormW for posting the outlook......Another round of Thunderstorms should be coming thru the florida area tomorrow..........More rain!!!!! This winter has been great! I know that it will get cold on Wednesday but thats minor in the grand scheme of things. Everyone in florida should keep an eye on your local weather reports in case the atmosphere sharpens up a bit. Have a good week!
Hey folks! How's it going?
We've been white here for a few weeks, last week Tuesday's lake effect event taught us that the 80% frozen over lake can still pack a punch with the snow totals as we got about 13" at my house.

As per tropical discussions, I was wondering what with this moderate-strong La Nina still cranking away, if there was not perhaps some potential for an early start to the tropical season...
La Nina sure messed with the NE winter! What havoc will she reak this spring? And when is she going away????
What havoc will she reak this spring?

Probably a near-historic severe weather season, considering what we have already seen... and this (I have also posted about this in my blogs before, as early as last February):

The Super Outbreak occurred at the end of a very strong, nearly record-setting La Nina event.

(speaking of record-setting, the current La Nina has the potential to set a record for the strongest La Nina during February)


La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."



There has been one previous study investigating ENSO impacts on tornadoes. An unpublished manuscript by Knowles and Pielke (1993) observed that tornadoes during ENSO cold phase (La Nina) are stronger and remain on the ground longer than their warm phase (El Nino) counterparts. They further showed that there is an increased chance of large tornado outbreaks (40 or more tornadoes associated with a single synoptic system) during ENSO cold phase.

(a coincidence that last year's tornado season was so violent and a La Nina was developing? Probably not, and this year looks to be at least several times worse, it has already had more violent tornadoes than 2005 and 2006 combined, deadliest tornado outbreak in a quarter century (also the most violent tornadoes in one outbreak in that time), a record February tornado outbreak and monthly number of tornadoes)
Also, as far as the effects of La Nina on hurricane season go, a strong La Nina is NOT favorable for a very active season; in fact, strong La Nina seasons tend to be like what we had last year (which was very similar to 1988, even down to some of the individual storms, which had a similar strength La Nina). Often, the Atlantic cools down during strong La Ninas, and as recent research has found, this has a big impact on other conditions (even if the Pacific is cooler, the Indian Ocean also plays a big part,last year it was very warm and that has a similar effect to El Nino in the Pacific). As for U.S. impacts, a neutral season is generally the worst (like 2005, which began with a weak El Nino that decayed to neutral by hurricane season and cooled to a weak La nina by the following winter - probably the worst thing that can happen for the U.S., as the El Nino warms things up, then a neutral pattern favors increased activity and U.S. strikes; a slow decline to a weak La Nina by the end of the season has also been linked to increased activity).


From hurricanealley.net:

4. The most active seasons in terms of storm number numbers and percentage of named storms achieving hurricane and major hurricane status are those with a neutral with cold bias

7. The years with the highest number of storms on average are those classified as neutral with a cold bias

8. The years with the most landfalls by tropical systems are those that are considered neutral

11. The years with the greatest percentage of landfalls that are major hurricanes are those ranked as neutral
Hey All....I'll be in the Western Florida Panhandle for the next few days (startng tommrow) so we'll see if any significant threats develop (SPC has us in the moderate risk category right now)......Tornadoes suck, but, all the rain over the past several weeks up here has been a blessing as we do not currently have any rain deficits for the year and we can always use the water......As far as any thoughts on the coming season, what I have learned over the last three years on this Blog during Hurricane Season (from Dr. Masters and many of the well-versed regulars on here) is to expect the unexpected (which is usually the case with Mother Nature) so I am giving less and less credence to the annual predictions (from Grey/NHC/Bastardi, etc.)and basically take the wait and see approach which usually means when an actual depression forms somewhere when the big factors (SST's-Convection Persistance-Waves-Frontal Remnants- Shear Values, etc.) start to "gell" during any given week during the heart of the Season......Just too many factors out there that can change during any season, IMHO, to even rely on the long-term predictions issued during the Season..........BWE...Bastardi predicted a huge risk for the Gulf last year and it never came to pass......You just never know and I hope that the wishcasters don't turn the Blog into a Zoo this year.....
I saw this old 1993 political Van Halen video yesterday and saw something that was prudent to share here.

Watch this video at note what it says at timecode 1:36 thru 1:39

Van Halen - Right Now

It says "Right now is just time between Ice Ages" Interesting. That was the mainstream scientific community's mindset during most of the 1970's thru the time this video was made in 1993. Now, it's only 15 years later and all people can talk about is global warming. Hmmm.... Maybe Al Gore needs to make a music video to sell his agenda.

BTW, try convincing people in the mid-west about global warming theory this winter. Hard sell.
Guys, I saw this work where the amount of dust deposited in the western US has dramatically increased with westward expansion and settlement. Interesting...but,

What about the notion that the Sahara has been expanding. This is something the GW crowd loves to say and blame on your gas mileage. My thought is this: If there was substantially less dust over the tropical Atlantic (from Africa) 300 years ago, wouldn't we all expect the possibility of more TCs developing back then (compared to now)? Especially early in the season, right?

OK, assuming GW really does happen, so how does the positive influence of higher SSTs compare to the negative influences of more shear AND more dust? Do we really have a net positive feedback here? I am not so sure.

SST is a requirement and higher values (or depth of 26.5C isotherm) leads to stronger storms. High shear trumps the SST requirement, though. Also, I am fairly sure that hydrophillic dust at mid or upper levels will also act a bit like a trump to the other 2 conditions.

Please correct me if I have it wrong about the GW presumption of expanding deserts.

Thoughts?
atmoaggie, you raise some interesting points. But firstly, 300 years ago if a storm did not landfall, it probably went un-noticed. Also, it isnt a notion that the Sahara is expanding, its a factual thing. The " why " is the doubt. Re the Dust coming from there into the Tropical Atlantic, there are still conflicting ideas about what effect it will have/ is having.
Some surmise that the presence of the dust will help to generate more storms, as the dust particles could act as "seeds" around which water droplets will form. Another view ( I go with this one ) is that the dust is accompanied by a cloud of hot, dry air, and this will absorb most of the moisture that is in the area, effectively drying up any potential Trop[ical Weather system in the Atl.
Interestingly, it was also thought that the dust would tend to block sunlight, and cause cooler SST. Experiecne is showing that the surface temps have actually risen when the dust is present. So although one would think that the higher surface air temps would result in more moisture in the air and therefore stronger storms, the accompanying dry air seems to be cancelling this out.

The thing is most interesting.
Further...do we know what effect the introduction of all that cold water from the Arctic is having on Atlantic SST in the Summertime ??? When I add a block of ice to my drink, the whole glass of stuff cools down.........
Havent seen many Bergs in da Gulf of Mexico lately.
But I'll keepa me eye out.
In response to the issue of the Global Warming THEORY... Has anyone taken into account that Earth's orbit around the sun changes from almost circular to eliptical, which in turn, would change the distance of the earth from the sun and could drastically change Earth's temperatures. How about the poles. Yes, they tilt but they also wobble. The wobble goes from almost circular to eliptical, as well. These two combined, would cause the angle the earth tilts and distance from the sun to change from time to time, which could also be a explanition for why the earth's temperatures are going up or down. Also, has anyone thought about CO2 touted as a greenhouse gas. If we are putting off so much CO2, which plants require to survive, why aren't our trees and others plants growing at an exponential rate. And on the subject of Global Warming, the ozone layer. Whenever lightning strikes anywhere on Earth, ozone is produced. In theory, if we are "depleting the ozone layer" shouldn't it be gone by now? Ever notice how anything humans do to Earth, it seems to be undone by weather or by nature. Seems as if the earth has a natural way of undoing what humans do or create. Nothing can outsurvive nature but nature itself. Nothing on earth that is manmade is permanent. Take a look at the facts that have been gathered. Global Warming... Yeah. The Earth's temp has only changed maybe 1 degree in the 150 years that the US has been recording temps here. Scaring everyone into thinking they're all doing something wrong to push an agenda is no way to go about doing business. Sorry for the rant but I had to get that off my chest.
Ummm, the ozone layer bit not a theory anymore. Yes, it was being depleted for about a month over the poles at the onset of sunlight returning to that pole...early spring, but it would then recover as soon as the polar stratospheric cloud dissipated. The cloud offered surfaces upon which the chlorine radical chemistry could occur.

It would have worsened if we didn't reduce the release of very stable gases capable of surviving a trip to the poles (long) and up to the stratosphere (much longer) only to then release their free chlorine atom. The holes still happen and will continue for 100 years or so...the gases in this chemistry are VERY stable and do not react until sunlight not filtered by any of the troposphere comes into play.

Lightning does have a part, it creates NOx, which reacts with certain volatile organic compounds (VOCs, like turpenes from pine trees) to create tropospheric ozone naturally. Industrial sources can increase the VOCs to a point at which more tropospheric ozone is produced...to sometimes unhealthy levels (it IS a toxin). This ozone NEVER makes the trek to the polar areas and doesn't make it anywhere close to stratospheric levels. It is not a stable compound and reacts with NO (with a little sunlight) to make NOx again, which is brown. A good guess of where ozone is high is where is the brown smog is present.
Also, has anyone thought about CO2 touted as a greenhouse gas. If we are putting off so much CO2, which plants require to survive, why aren't our trees and others plants growing at an exponential rate.

Just so ya know I agree with your post and I hate GW debates so I won't get into one but I just wanted to comment on this little tidbit that you said.

Massive amounts of CO2 are not necessarily going to bomb plant growth. There has always been plenty....and plants need many ingredients besides CO2 to go through photosynthesis...the most obvious of these is sunlight and water....and unless the other factors increase along with the CO2 plants will not necessarily grow exponentially. If temperate climates had sun all day long like the poles do in the summer then there would be an infinite amount of sunlight and CO2 for the plants to work with and then they might grow exponentially....but that isn't the case.

Sorry guys I'm studying biology...I hate it lol....but that's my 2 cents on the plant part :D
No icebergs in the GOM !
My point was, that if it is true that the Polar Ice cap reduced in size last summer, and that would tend to suggest that a fair amount of ice ( A billion cubic yards ) melted, then that cold water must have gone somewhere. Into the Guflstream perhaps ? Into the GOM maybe?
I'm not looking to score points Pat, but asking for some thoughts on the matter.
Maybe I should put it this way.....If there was no North Polar melt, then what would the Atlantic SST have been in 2007.
No change ?
Lower ?
What ?
Its all intertwined in the big Pic pottery. Canes are part of the Big Pic equation. They take the latent heat and Moisture and transport it to the Higher latitudes as part of the Global Thermodynamic picture. Many factors can and do affect the subtle and large factors in this process.Including what you mention about the Atlantic and its currents and the Artic Ice Melting. Ice Melt from the Poles will have an effect.As to what extent, I would not know.
Good post Levi32
Levi32, I just get tired of having "GLOBAL WARMING" shoved down my throat as a pure fact. Truth is that trying to prove something in a 30 year study without looking at all of the different angles just makes "scientists" look like morons once they are proved wrong. I think a lot of people, mostly politicians, jumped on the "GLOBAL WARMING" bandwagon before anyone was able to do a more thourough research on the topic. (And ya'll know that the "scientists" are goning to agree more with whoever is writing their paychecks.) My thing is that there are so many other reasons for the Earth's temp other than "GLOBAL WARMING".
True, Pat.
Hopefully, there is enough funding for the research to take into account all the influences that affect the Hurricane season.
Truth is, the parameters are changing so fast, ( whatever the reasons) that the researchers are always a step behind.
How is life with you ? I saw you moved house ?
I know. The tropical weather blog is for just that... Tropical weather. But you can't discuss tropical weather without the Earth's climate being mentioned. And when the Earth's climate is mentioned, "GLOBAL WARMING" comes up. And I start thinking about Al Gore and his Multi-Million dollar mansion using all of that electricity while teeling us "commoners" we need to use less. WHAT A HYPOCRITE!!!!
Records for the issue go way back further than 30 years. Ships from the Europeans and around the Globe have kept records,as well as ice core sampling, which shows worldwide distribution of pollens and other temperature sensitive plant life.And Sea Floor coring as well as sedimentary sampling give evidence to past Peaks and valleys in the earths past. The argument isnt over the Observed warming..as much as to the rise of Fossil Fuel/Man influenced burning that correlates to the warming.

Where does the constant outporing of Billions of Combustion Process go IE, Autos and such?..
To Fairy LAnd?
..or the Exhaust from Coal Fired Plants Globally that also run 24/7 365 go?
No ..it goes into the Atmosphere Globally.Not Locally only.


Its a cause in effect thing were observing.
Not fantasy Football.
Fire831. You raised some good points, then you lost it when you went algoring. Forget the messenger, look at the message.
fire831 yes I agree with all that......we're going off of a couple centuries of not even 100% reliable weather records....and we're coming out of an "ice age" and what-not........I just hate how political it's all become.
That's all fine and dandy, Patrap, but what about other things that would dump gases into the atmosphere. I could name a few. Forest fires. Volcanoes - above ground and under sea. You know those thing aren't a constant. If that was the case, I do believe there wouldn't be any place for us to live for all the lava. And we'd be dodging forest fires more than the Californians do now. Point is that we're spending too much time and money trying to blame ourselves for something that could very well be a natural occurance. Refer to previous post about Earth's orbit around the sun. This may clear what I was saying up just a little.
Sorry I lost you, pottery. Was trying to tie everything into one little neat package. But you know how it goes. My mind gets to goin 90 to nothing on a subject, wanders a few feet and starts on something related to the discussion but seems somehow off topic and detached.
Sorry about the long-winded defense of the ozone hole chemistry. That is what my degree work was all about. I am more familiar with that subject than I would like to be.
Im well aware of natural variability. And Im well aware of the earths Celestial and Orbital Mechanics round Sol.Were closet to Sol in Jan ..furthest in July.The Axial tilt determines seasonal Heat and Cold.Not Orbital closeness to Sol.

The warming is occurring.As to the extent the Man-made processes are contributing...There in lies the crux..so the debate and science continues.
I dont believe in alarmist's,nor do I believe in Politicians. They both way to Loud and over hyped.And usually... it's the people who suffer from the contributions both make Globally.
The thing about what the "scientists" are trying to do with the "GLOBAL WARMING" issue is like this: You can't take 30, 50, 100 or even 500 years worth of study and tell what will happen tomorrow. The Earth is millions, if not billions of years old. We need a little more study to find out if our "scientists" are correct. Give 'em a little more time. Say a million years. By then, they should have enough data to tell us what happened in the past. (And that's all they'll find out.)
Ok Fire, but the thing is that, to me, volcanoes, fires, etc are " natural " occurences that play a part in the overall scheme of things. They sometimes cost lives and property but so what.?
The "unnatural" activity that seems to have some effect is the emmissions that patrap referred to, along with a lot of others created by us. There is no 'Proof " that these emmissions are causing this or that to happen.
I do feel that it may be wise to consider that they very well MIGHT be having an effect, and that if there is any doubt, then we should err on the side of caution, and try to emit less.
How Old Is The Earth, And How Do We Know?

The generally accepted age for the Earth and the rest of the solar system is about 4.55 billion years (plus or minus about 1%). This value is derived from several different lines of evidence.

Link
Well, that's what I've been trying to get at is that we're all fed the notion that we ARE causing it and we NEED to cut back for our protecting and survival. Truth is that no one knows for sure. Instead of just looking at it from a manmade standpoint, as has been done all along, I'm looking from the standpoint that climate doing change over time and we don't need man's help for that to happen. Look at the ice ages. What happened between them? Oh, I got it. There were too many cavemen burning inside their caves. This created a lot of greenhouse gases resulting in global warming and that's what happened to the dinosaurs. Hahaha. It was the caveman's fault that they died. Yes, I'm being sarcastic for a reason. To prove a point. It's all a theory until it's proven fact. We need to look at it more like this: "The THEORY of Global Warming"
Well the fact is accepted that the Global temp is rising..and it correlates to the Burning and pumping into the Atmosphere Globally,pollutants,greenhouse gases,CFC's..heavy metals, and God knows what all 365/24/7.

And maybe check out the City Heat Island effect, if you dont think we influence the weather too.

The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs when city temperatures run higher than those in suburban and rural areas, primarily because growing numbers of buildings have supplanted vegetation and trees. Moreover, human activity itself generates heat.

Link

And here too. Link

Out fer suppertime. Been fun.
OK, but read my last sentence above, again, Fire.
I know about the city island effect. Hmm. It goes like this. Because pavement and concrete both get very hot in the sun and tend to hold in that heat longer than the surrounding vegitation and let the heat escape over a longer period of time, therefore acting as a heater on the earth's surface, bringing the temp up. Wow.
Yes, pottery. Read it. Saw the big MIGHT there. But my thing is that we are always fed a bunch of things being called fact and told we must act on it, when they don't really know who or what is affecting anything.


Welcome to the Weather Underground's new Climate Change page!
We're just getting started, so keep checking back over the next few months for new additions.

Climate Change
A scientific look at global climate changes. Link
Patrap, I do believe climate change is taking place, but I do find it very hard to believe that it is all caused by man as so many have said. I also find it very hard to believe that it is all caused by "greenshouse gases." I think it's a combination of Earth's natural cycles, the planet's distance and tilt in relation to the sun and some human factors. Not saying that humans have absolutely no impact, but it seems quite far fetched to think the humans and only humans are to blame for what happens on Earth. When you take all of the variables into account, it seems as if there is no one single causing for the warming or cooling of the planet. Whether it be what I discussed earlier with the distance and tilt of the Earth to the effect of "greenhouse gases", it all seems to be many different variables that are causing what has been called "global warming." It is very possible in the future, we could reach a "peak" temperature and the Earth's temp could fall again. Truth is that no one knows for sure what is happening. It's all one big guess as to what is causing our planet's temp to go up. I don't just look at everything from one angle and say that's what it is. I know there are many ways to reach the same result.
Im neutral on the matter fire.

Dont mistake the links and accepted data on the subject matter as my personal view.
That is known only to my conscience.
I only link the info. I dont gather the data.

That's cool. I just can't see where the majority of scientists around the world are pointing fingers at people, scaring them by saying, "it's you." On the other hand, I don't think politicians should be using their pull in government to push certain subjects onto people. I know I don't take to kindly to having religion pushed on me and I, myself, am a Christian. Same goes for other special intrests, especially when it comes from the mouth of politicians. Remember, Politic when divided into it's latin meaning, Poli means many and a tick is a blood sucking creature.
Levi~ When most plants are exposed to high amounts of CO2 the mechinism that takes it in shrinks, like how your pupils get small in alotta light. Take Chem for science majors if ya hadn't & follow with biochem. It really pulls together the big picture.



Cyclone toll in Madagascar rises to 44ANTANANARIVO, Madagascar -- The death toll has risen to 44 and the number of homeless is up to 145,000 more than a week after a cyclone tore through this island in the Indian Ocean, Madagascar's government said Monday.

Areas on the eastern side of the island remained cut off by flood waters. Seven major roads were impassable and bridges have been destroyed, hampering attempts to deliver relief, according to the Ministry of Transport.

Cyclone Ivan lashed Madagascar on Feb. 17 with torrential rain and winds of up to 140 miles per hour.

The hardest-hit region is Fenerive Este, where one out of nearly every three residents lost their homes and 70 percent of buildings have been destroyed. Emergency medical supplies have been exhausted on island of Sainte Marie, a popular tourist resort that is home to 19,000, officials said.

Madagascar now faces food shortages after 37,000 acres of rice fields were flooded in the region of Alaotra Mangoro, which provides nearly a third of the island's staple food.

A relief effort is under way to provide rice, yogurt, cheese and money to parts of the east coast. The US has donated $100,000.

Madagascar, the world's fourth-largest island, is regularly struck by cyclones and there are fears that global warming may exacerbate the cyclone season. Last season was the worst on record -- six cyclones killed about 150 people.

by the way dos any one no where dr m ran off too???



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75...

VALID 260520Z - 260645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75
CONTINUES.

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z.
AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
MS/AL AND PERHAPS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...PERHAPS BY AROUND 06Z-0630Z.

STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/QUICKLY SPREAD
EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...FROM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHWEST
MS BORDER INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST LA AS OF 05Z. WHILE STORMS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHWEST MS THUS
FAR...AN INCREASING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /45-55 KT/
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE/POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY STEADILY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL LA INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS THROUGH 06Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL BY
AROUND 09Z-12Z AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE LOWER 60S F.
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT MAY INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY PER THE LINEAR ORGANIZATION/WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DISTINCT PREFRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL BE SAMPLED/EVALUATED PER A FORTHCOMING
SPECIAL 06Z RAOB FROM JACKSON MS.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2008
GOM IR Loop ..Link
skyepony, I had wondered what had happened to Madagascar - the pictures of Ivan just sitting on that island was very disturbing - the reality of the numbers very sad, very concerning.
Patrap - give you applause for your work and words this morning!

Good Morning ALL!!! Great to get good weather infor. this AM. Thanks Patrap (gomex loop) thanks StormW --seeing what's ahead in the weather for the day makes my planning so much easier! I use to just read 50% chance of rain and really still be cluelss as to what is going on.

This AM, I reviewed all your information and I know I better get my self in gear and get to the barns asap --work all the horses first thing this AM and save the tack cleaning, and inside jobs for the afternoon.
Well I am zooming off to get kid to school and myself to work. See you guys later.
Dupage severe Weather warnings Page Link

Best source for Warnings ...and storm reports
Morning surfmom,StormW. The Line passing thru here now,not much weather with it,looking forward to the cool down real soon. Its Muggy here this am.
T-4 months 6 days and counting in till the atlantic Hurricane season begins, all is looking good in the control rooms at this time and we are still go, around the 3 month mark pre-forcast predictions will come in. This is weatherunderground control.
As always, thanks Storm and Pat for all the information. After reading the posts on La Nina as it relates to the upcoming tropical atlantic season, the severity and probability of any land falling storms will, and has always been hinged on at least two important factors; wind shear and where the BH will set up. Are there things that can be predicted with any acccuracy this year as compared to last?
HAil is a BAd thing ...those Hail Indicators on the radar usually Ping on the real deal. Hope all is well with them StormW.
I would suggest if we get much sun shine in Tampa the worse this evenings weather will be.
Gm storm,and to all
hello there chowder....lol
StormW with the sun currently shining in Tampa now, the instability could rise as the front approaches.
Its been really amazing how much convective activity there has been this month,does not bode well for the spring.
guten morgen!

Looking at Warner Robins Base radar and spotted a line of 5 hailstorms. What a squall line that is!!! its huge!

I don't think there have been three years without a major hitting the US, right??

Nasty storms over Ga. and Alabama
The latest research shows that there has not been any increase in storm number or ferocity. Katrina was only cat 3 when it struck New Orleans. The problem there was one of poor maintenance not the ferocity of the storm. River flooding is due to dredging being ignored. All rivers silt up their beds and subsequent rains force water to overbank due to the silting up. The problem with this sort of maintenance is it is extreemly expensive so tends to get forgotten.
So we have a wild spring in store for us, eh?
I'm already seeing signs of an early spring here.
Flu bug has hit hard all over...I'm thinking another ripple effect of this climate change is the propogation and mutations of viruses...these viruses didnt get really "killed off" at all in the freezing cold, due to all those warm Pacific air bursts that have been pumping in from the West all winter long. Normally a few months of below freezing temps would weaken the epidemics.
Any one with thoughts?

Thanks for all the folks who posted lots of great stuff lately! Storm, you, especially Rock! Thanks for all your efforts! Wea ll learn soooooooooo much!

Good morning Storm W, has there been three years without a major cane hitting the US??


Bluejohn...Katrina was the Greatest Impact on any US Region..in History,from a 28 ft Storm Surge in Waveland Miss, to 17ft at the 17th St. Outfall Canal in New Orleans.

Using a Wind Loading based Saffir -Simpson Scale..isnt the best way to score impact.
Katrina at Landfall in Buras was a Cat-4..pushing the Large Cat-5 generated storm surge. And the Size of the Massive Hurricane..took an avg of 9 Hours to Move thru a Given area in the eyewall.
So your assessment of impact in New Orleans and the Cat-3 reference..is wrong, skewed..and tilted in your personal view of what occurred here.
Or have you visited and seen the Impact Zone that takes 3 hours to drive thru?

From Houma,LA. to The ALa/Fla Borders.

Its that Kinda posts that reinforce the General Knowledge and thinking that a New and Better Hurricane rating scale is needed.

Wind Loading on structures is what gave Birth to the H-scale as is.A new, better Surge to Size,Potential and Coastal shape ,..is what the public needs and deserves.

The Super Storms..large Cat-3 and Higher require more Public awareness of Surge and overall impact potential.

To many focus on a Cat # and less on Potential Impact. That can be a deadly and miscalculated risk.

They only make these Maps for the Super Impactors..Link

To clarify visually.
Cat-1 Hurricane Cindy,..July 2005 6 weeks before Katrina,local landfall Loop Link

Katrina Aug 2005 local landfall Loop Link

The Corps of Engineers and their Failure of Levee Protection.Link

Released June 4, the report The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: What Went Wrong and Why focuses on the direct physical causes and contributing factors to the hurricane protection system failures during Hurricane Katrina. This report details the in-depth review by the ASCE Hurricane Katrina External Review Panel of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET) to better understand this tragedy and prevent similar disasters from happening again. It is a fascinating read, offering hope for not just the future of New Orleans, but for all other hurricane and flood-prone areas of the country.
Link



I think most of the weather patterns this winter are directly attributed to the fairly strong La Nina. The La Nina is expected to last at least until June,so its probably going to be a turbulent spring like the winter has been.
Check out the new line developing in the GOM. compared to the imiage above.
Thanks Storm W...
Things should be getting pretty cold for SoFlo.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Windy, with a west wind 10 to 13 mph becoming north between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Northwest wind between 3 and 8 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 69. North wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
I just noticed that they added some features to the main page. WunderMap and weather stations. Today was the first day I noticed them. Rain in Harrisburg, PA, No snow.
Is global warming causing an increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes?

Link


Emanuel, K.A., "The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate"
Link
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 77
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
948 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

GAC009-021-023-053-079-081-091-093-107-125-141-153-163-167-169-
175-193-197-207-209-215-225-235-249-259-261-269-271-279-283-289-
301-303-307-309-315-319-261700-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.A.0077.000000T0000Z-080226T1700Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77 REMAINS VALID UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 37 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY
CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE
DOOLY HOUSTON JONES
LAURENS MONROE MONTGOMERY
PEACH PULASKI TELFAIR
TWIGGS WHEELER WILCOX
WILKINSON

IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA

EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK
JEFFERSON JOHNSON TOOMBS
TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

CHATTAHOOCHEE MACON MARION
MUSCOGEE SCHLEY STEWART
SUMTER TAYLOR WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ALAMO...AMERICUS...
BUENA VISTA...BUTLER...COCHRAN...COLUMBUS...CORDELE...DUBLIN...
EASTMAN...ELLAVILLE...FORSYTH...FORT BENNING...FORT VALLEY...
GIBSON...GRAY...HAWKINSVILLE...JEFFERSONVILLE...LOUISVILLE...
MACON...MCRAE...MILLEDGEVILLE...MONTEZUMA...MOUNT VERNON...
PRESTON...RICHLAND...ROBERTA...SANDERSVILLE...SOPERTON...SPARTA...
SWAINSBORO...TOOMSBORO...VIDALIA...VIENNA...WARNER ROBINS...
WARRENTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE.

$$



GOM IR Loop of the Front pushing Ese.Link
StormW this sun is still shining in Tampa and i would suspect some very powerful storms late.
Sun shining bight and strong in Bradenton (a bit south of Tampa) Temp here in the shade 79. Perhaps we will get some much needed rain here this go around. Hopefully nothing too severe.
The storm over Tallahassee has a 35000 ft. top...boom.
Tampa is at 79 degrees now.
Check these cloud tops out and getting higher it seems.
NEXRAD Storm Table = Tornado Vortex Signature = Mesocyclone = Hail Storm
ID Max Top VIL Chance of Severe Hail Chance of Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
M3 61 dBZ 32,000 ft. 51 kg/m² 30% 100% 1.00 in. 40 knots WSW (255)

G4 61 dBZ 32,000 ft. 35 kg/m² 10% 100% 0.75 in. 38 knots WSW (251)

B4 61 dBZ 32,000 ft. 41 kg/m² 0% 90% 0.50 in. 54 knots WSW (256)

I6 60 dBZ 13,000 ft. 26 kg/m² 0% 0% 0.00 in. 84 knots WSW (255)

C3 59 dBZ 25,000 ft. 30 kg/m² 10% 70% 0.75 in. 34 knots WSW (244)

O5 58 dBZ 22,000 ft. 24 kg/m² 0% 0% 0.00 in. 47 knots W (260)

W4 58 dBZ 9,000 ft. 15 kg/m² 0% 0% 0.00 in. 36 knots W (264)

J6 56 dBZ 38,000 ft. 43 kg/m² 10% 100% 0.75 in. 44 knots WSW (255)

O6 55 dBZ 27,000 ft. 26 kg/m² 0% 50% <0.50 in. New Cell
V5 54 dBZ 37,000 ft. 33 kg/m² 0% 90% 0.50 in. 69 knots WSW (255)

SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 1207 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1206 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 1202 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 1201 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1155 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1155 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 1144 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1136 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1228 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 1245 PM EST * AT 1224 PM EST...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LAKE PARK...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF JENNINGS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MELROSE
Very nasty stuff off shore Florida.