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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The Extreme Temperature Index: Identifying Which Records are Most Significant

By: Guy Walton 4:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2017

Our guest author today on Category 6 is Guy Walton, an independent meteorologist in Atlanta who spent more than 30 years as a forecaster at The Weather Channel. For more than a decade, Guy has kept detailed records on U.S. daily, monthly, and all-time record high and low temperatures across the United States. His efforts helped lead to NOAA’s establishment of its U.S. Records site. In 2009, Guy coauthored a high-profile paper in Geophysical Research Letters with lead author Gerald Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research), showing that U.S. daily record highs have increasingly outpaced daily record lows since the 1980s. Guy’s work can be found on Twitter (@climateguyw) and on his new website, Guy on Climate (not to be confused with an unrelated site called “Climate Guy”).

In 2007, when Bob Henson and I were first discussing the potential for a new climate study based on U.S. ratios of record surface highs to lows, we thought that it would be fantastic to engineer an index that would allow for ranking, rating, and comparing individual tallies.

Up to now, I’ve carried out my research without such an index. My most recent analysis uses record ratios to show that U.S. nights are actually warming faster than days, most likely due to carbon pollution interacting with moisture.

Studies like this one pit one tally of a set record against another. One problem that Bob and I recognized early on is that a report, or tally, of a surface record could be a tied record coming from a station with only a period of record (time that a station has been reporting reliable temperature measurements) of 30 years, or a report from a station with a period of record well over 100 years breaking an old record by several degrees. So we have been proverbially comparing apples to oranges.

Bob and I thought there ought to be some simple mathematical index taking into account variables hidden in those individual record tallies. The first two variables were obvious: (1) the period of record, or the length of time that regular observations have been collected at a given location, and (2) the difference (e.g., degrees Fahrenheit) between the old record and new. Bob also thought that the difference between the average maximum and minimum at each location on each given date is a factor and should be built into an algorithm or index. The name we came up with is the Extreme Temperature Index (ETI).


Figure 1. In the United States, record highs have outpaced record lows by an increasing margin since the 1980s. Shown here are the annual ratios of daily record highs to daily record lows for each year since the 1920s, when enough reliable data had accumulated to begin calculating such ratios. The only two years this century with more record lows than highs were 2013 and 2014. Image credit: Climate Central.

How the ETI works
Think about this: During the middle of the summer at Miami, FL, the average low is near 80°F while the average high is near 90°F, so the average diurnal temperature spread there is 10°F. Miami has a marine climate while Des Moines, IA, has a continental climate. The average low at Des Moines during that same midsummer day may be 60°F with a max near 85°F, or a spread of 25°F. Because of these differing spreads, it should be easier to exceed a record high or low by a margin as large as, say, 2°F in Des Moines versus Miami. Therefore, a useful ETI will generally weigh a statistical tally higher for a record set in a more marine environment than in a continental one, or at a lower-elevation site versus a higher-elevation one. These factors do not have to be explicitly added, though; they are incorporated automatically because of their influence on the average diurnal temperature spread.

Dr. Bruce Rose, a good colleague of mine at The Weather Channel for more than a decade, came up with an initial algorithm for the ETI:



where
γ = sign of record (-1 = record low, +1 = record high)
n = number of years of record keeping (period of record, or POR)
| ΔTγ | = magnitude of record, in degrees
TD = average diurnal temperature range on day of record, in degrees

The ETA would work in either degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit. The beta exponent, which could be used to calibrate the ETI for monthly and all-time records, can be neglected here.

Using some simple mathematics, one can see how the ETI might work. All else being equal, the ETI will increase as n, the period of record, increases. The ETI will also increase in line with the magnitude of the difference between an old record and a new one. And if the average diurnal range of temperature gets larger, then the ETI number gets smaller.
The following are a couple of examples from the hot summer of 2007 calculated from the ETI algorithm. The periods of record shown here are for specific reporting sites as of 2007, rather than for the two cities as a whole.

Tupelo, MS (TUP):
n = 44 (as of 2007)
record high = 103
previous record high = 101
normal diurnal range for date = 89/72
ETI = + [(1 - .023)(2 + 1)/17] x 10 = 1.72

Louisville, KY (SDF):
n = 59
record high = 105
previous record high = 100 (monthly record)
normal diurnal range for date = 86/68
ETI = + [(1 - .017)(5 + 1)/20] x 10 = 2.95

As shown, we get an ETI value that is greater for Louisville than in Tupelo. The daily record at Louisville (which also happens to be a monthly record) is clearly more significant than the daily record set in Tupelo.

An idea ready for research
By 2009, we had the framework for the ETI in hand, and off we went to do a scientific paper, right? Eh…wrong. All of us had competing priorities, and to be honest, I lack the mathematical and statistical skills to produce such a paper. I have brought the ETI concept to many individuals who love the idea of ranking records but who have also been too busy with other priorities to take on this project. So, if any graduate student or other individual wants to take a serious look at the viability of the Extreme Temperature Index, just contact me or Bob and you have our blessing.

The more direct way of judging a record hot or cold event is its standard deviation from average (also known as its sigma value). These can be evaluated locally or across a region. For example, the Russian heat wave event of 2010 was deemed a “three sigma” event, or a very rare hot event far outside of norms or averages. An interesting alternative way for ranking a heat wave, if enough long-term observations are present, would be to take all the deemed tallies of records of said event and put them through the ETI algorithm. The local results could be added and then divided by the number of tallies to produce a regionally averaged Extreme Temperature Index (ETI) for that heat wave. Such a method could allow climatologists to better compare events from different eras.

WU weather historian Christopher Burt and I have envisioned a great repository of surface records from the entire planet. Based on this dataset, each new record would have its own calculated ETI to help meteorologists and climatologists better compare cold or hot events. The U.S. Records site (NOAA/National Center for Environmental Information), where I get my tallies, is a good start. By using some sort of ETI, I believe it could be vastly enhanced.

Any serious work on the ETI could prove to be both a personal opportunity and beneficial to science. For those who are interested, have at it!

Guy Walton (The Climate Guy)


Figure 2. A young girl plays in the waterfall at The Yard Park in Washington, DC, on July 25, 2016 as a heat wave rolled across the area. Washington’s Reagan National Airport hit 100°F, with a low of 81°F. Both were records for July 25 in data for Washington going back to 1872. Image credit: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images.

Heat Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:

#BREAKING National Hurricane Center director leaving for Weather Channel https://t.co/1DNPFQJ33m pic.twitter.com/8bL6enTgUf%u2014 WPLG Local 10 News (@WPLGLocal10) March 21, 2017


He was at TWC first, then became NHC director now he's going back to TWC. Probably went to NHC to get that government pension that he'll receive now later in retirement. I remember him on TWC all the time years ago before he went to NHC
this is an interesting update one of our younger weather students or older ones for that matter could do this

thanks for update
guest blogger (The Climate Guy)

sorry lol
Houston heat

Welcome Mr. Walton, and thank you very much for the input!
(Unfortunately I'm not the one to further evolve the striking ETI-formula :-)
Outstanding work Mr. Walton and Thank You for sharing........................I suck at math; I am not the one to ask but here is a part of the current Global heat anomalies; Siberia (and melting permafrost) is on virtual fire today in the Arctic:


Forecast Image
Baltimore astro TA one of those few others as well got to have that thing for math
I'd argue that the ETI needs to incorporate the current delta as opposed to just how much the record was exceeded. In my opinion, I think the swing is almost as important as the end value. So for example, something more along the lines of:

ETI = ETIo*(TDc/TDo)

Where ETIo is the ETI as proposed in the blog, TDc is the current temperature delta and TDo is the average temperature delta. This would allow the ETI to not only capture how extreme a new record is, but could potentially capture an extreme event that did not set a new record (which I would count as extreme anyway).

My .02. I'm not a meteorologist. :)
Interesting concept. Thanks for the article Mr. Walton.
With global temp sets available, implementing a processor incorporating this formula is pretty quick. Python, numpy, and matplotlib (if you want to make pretty graphs and geospatial overlays) would probably be the fastest. Using flask you could even pop it online as a web analytic. :)
Another way to do the analysis would be to measure the deviation statistically, ie how many sigma away from the mean the record is. That would mean that you would automatically take into account the relative variability of the climate at from one location to another.
Quoting 1. RitaEvac:

Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:

#BREAKING National Hurricane Center director leaving for Weather Channel https://t.co/1DNPFQJ33m pic.twitter.com/8bL6enTgUf%u2014 WPLG Local 10 News (@WPLGLocal10) March 21, 2017


He was at TWC first, then became NHC director now he's going back to TWC. Probably went to NHC to get that government pension that he'll receive now later in retirement. I remember him on TWC all the time years ago before he went to NHC


I can certainly understand why ANYone working as a scientist for the US government would be looking for another slot these days.

Regarding the formula above, what Xyrus2000 (post #7) says makes sense to me.... standard deviation is much more meaningful , at least to me, than absolute measures.
Quoting 11. MontanaZephyr:



I can certainly understand why ANYone working as a scientist for the US government would be looking for another slot these days.

Regarding the formula above, what Xyrus2000 (post #7) says makes sense to me.... standard deviation is much more meaningful , at least to me, than absolute measures.


To me, a statistical measure is the way to go, but then again I have a much better understanding of stats then weather...
Frailest-Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the first 'blue ocean' event this fall; if not this fall, certainly the next.
Quoting Guy Walton:

My most recent analysis uses record ratios to show that U.S. nights are actually warming faster than days, most likely due to carbon pollution interacting with moisture.

Nights warming faster than days is one of the human fingerprint on Climate Change.

SkS:

"As far back as the mid 1800s, Tyndall predicted that greenhouse warming should cause nights to warm faster than days. This is because at night, the Earth’s surface cools by radiating heat out to space. Greenhouse gases trap some of this heat, slowing the night-time cooling. It took over 130 years before Tyndall’s prediction was confirmed. Over the last few decades, surface measurements have observed nights warming faster than days (Braganza 2004, Alexander 2006, Zhou 2009)."


From last blog #114 on critical thinking...
The one on critical thinking is behind a paywall. One of their references is free to read on google scholar "Fitzgerald, J., & Baird, V. A. (2011). Taking a step back: teaching critical thinking by distinguishing appropriate type of evidence. Political Science and Politics, 44(3), 619–624.Link
Quoting 14. Xandra:

Quoting Guy Walton:

My most recent analysis uses record ratios to show that U.S. nights are actually warming faster than days, most likely due to carbon pollution interacting with moisture.

Nights warming faster than days is one of the human fingerprint on Climate Change.

SkS:

"As far back as the mid 1800s, Tyndall predicted that greenhouse warming should cause nights to warm faster than days. This is because at night, the Earth%u2019s surface cools by radiating heat out to space. Greenhouse gases trap some of this heat, slowing the night-time cooling. It took over 130 years before Tyndall%u2019s prediction was confirmed. Over the last few decades, surface measurements have observed nights warming faster than days (Braganza 2004, Alexander 2006, Zhou 2009)."





Lets not forget heat islands playing a role on this as well, with population increase, we are creating more infrastructure and concrete and buildings... and DOES play a role creating warmer nights near and inside urban areas. That's also a human fingerprint

Rural areas are becoming urban now in some places, and where people are, are thermometers and weather stations getting warmer at night.
I think it may be good to bear in mind that most daily lows occur just before daybreak, so the greater average warming of nighttime compared to average warming of daytime would certainly imply far fewer new record lows compared to record highs. Thus, it could be that we can generate a more useful picture of changing temps if we normalize the nighttime index to take general warming into account. For example, a monthly or daily low today that is only slightly warmer than the record low that occurred before the onset of warmer nights is a significant indicator of a cooling influence that might be underrated without this normalization. Or, in other words, instead of focusing on the new records, we might instead add a normalization coefficient for the hour of the day at which the daily low and daily high is observed, based on correcting for the reduced average daily range, to generate a graph of the changing average lows and highs. It may turn out, for example, that we've been missing some greater cooling influence hidden by the reduced daily temp range, and if so, then we may need a different intervention approach because reducing warming overall could then result in problematic global cooling.
Quoting 13. MontanaZephyr:

Frailest-Ever Winter Sea Ice Facing a Cruel, Cruel Summer

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the first 'blue ocean' event this fall; if not this fall, certainly the next.


Summer ice extent is dominated by summer weather with initial ice conditions in May being of only secondary importance. It's not certain at all we'll see blue ocean in the next two years but I'm expecting a surprise from unusually favorable summer conditions after a winter that didn't seem too alarming, sometime in the next ten.
Quoting 16. RitaEvac:



Lets not forget heat islands playing a role on this as well, with population increase, we are creating more infrastructure and concrete and buildings... and DOES play a role creating warmer nights near and inside urban areas. That's also a human fingerprint

Rural areas are becoming urban now in some places, and where people are, are thermometers and weather stations getting warmer at night.


While what you are saying is true, the BEST study revealed that areas in the UHI are warming at the same rate as the surrounding rural areas. In other words, the UHI is not adding to the warming of the climate. Even though it takes more heat energy to warm water than it does concrete, water also has better heat retention capabilities than does concrete. Do you now include man made lakes into the equation?
California?


Quoting 20. nrtiwlnvragn:

California?





What the heck?
SPC went up to an enhanced chance of severe t-storms this afternoon in one spot; some severe t-storms rolling through Tennessee at the moment just below that current jet stream belt to the North:


And some hail reports in the past 3 hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic

It's quite possible that the jet dipped to the South over Tennessee since the 12Z issuance of the jet chart I posted below.
Can't believe this will all be coming to and end soon. Not a good move by WU, sorry to say. End of an ERA.
Here is the updated 18Z chart; yup, the jet has dipped down closer to TN and starting to get some bowing segments in the t-storm line..............Might be a little bumpy downstream for the afternoon as the line goes through TN; it just passed through Nashville on the way East.

Similar to what happened about a month ago when the jet pushed in a little sooner than expected and caused additional vorticity, and severe cells, over LA with little advance warning..................It happens sometimes.




Peru floods in line with climate change models, says climatologist Mojib Latif
Peru is being hit by devastating flooding. Is it a natural weather cycle or an impact of climate change?
Interview, DW, 21.03.2017
(Mojib Latif is a professor of oceanology and climate dynamics at GEOMAR, the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany.)
Everyone have a safe weather evening and particularly the folks downstream of the current weather rolling through Tennessee; as noted in the post by Mr. Henson a few days ago, we were looking at the severe weather potential towards the end of this week, and into the weekend, due in part to the incoming Pacific jet, but that second tier of the jet over the Eastern half of Conus took a dive down this afternoon.

Here are the total storm reports for today so far:

today Reports Graphic

And the incoming Pacific jet for the end of the week: See Yall tomorrow morning.

Sorry to see this come to a end also..Learned a lot from the many bloggers on hear..So what social media page are we looking at Facebook???? Any answers on this...So no one will have a handle anymore...I'm confused..
Quoting 25. originalLIT:

Can't believe this will all be coming to and end soon. Not a good move by WU, sorry to say. End of an ERA.
I totally disagree, this post shows what the new site will probably be like: more professional science and hopefully an end to the endless amateur hogwash.
elioe, I'd love to hear your input about the article linked in comment #815 in my blog.

SunnyDaysFla, I responded to your wundermail.
Quoting 29. bayoubug:

Sorry to see this come to a end also..Learned a lot from the many bloggers on hear..So what social media page are we looking at Facebook???? Any answers on this...So no one will have a handle anymore...I'm confused..


We'll have a handle, but it'll be separate from our WU accounts and be thru Disqus instead.
Quoting 25. originalLIT:

Can't believe this will all be coming to and end soon. Not a good move by WU, sorry to say. End of an ERA.


It is now corporately owned, and corporations *don't like it* when information flow is out of their control...and the thing that keeps this going is the information sharing.

Don't be surprised if in a couple if years this turns in to a denial site, or at the very least an obfusicatory site.

Doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows~
Quoting 18. georgevandenberghe:



Summer ice extent is dominated by summer weather with initial ice conditions in May being of only secondary importance. It's not certain at all we'll see blue ocean in the next two years but I'm expecting a surprise from unusually favorable summer conditions after a winter that didn't seem too alarming, sometime in the next ten.


I respect your opinion. I just look at the graphs, and, knowing that there are multiple feedbacks in process, I can easily imagine that not only is there change in progress, and not only is the rate of change increasing, but the rate of the change of the increase is likely kicking in as well....

...and so, looking at the graphs, or specifically, the one that shows year to year measures of arctic sea-ice extent, it looks like that 2017 line is going to come as close to 'zero' as a seagull dipping from the sky to scoop a surface morsel. (Clumsy metaphor, sorry, but you get the idea).

Happy trails~
bloggers. where are you going? end of the line is coming
Quoting 17. kparcell:

I think it may be good to bear in mind that most daily lows occur just before daybreak, so the greater average warming of nighttime compared to average warming of daytime would certainly imply far fewer new record lows compared to record highs. Thus, it could be that we can generate a more useful picture of changing temps if we normalize the nighttime index to take general warming into account. For example, a monthly or daily low today that is only slightly warmer than the record low that occurred before the onset of warmer nights is a significant indicator of a cooling influence that might be underrated without this normalization. Or, in other words, instead of focusing on the new records, we might instead add a normalization coefficient for the hour of the day at which the daily low and daily high is observed, based on correcting for the reduced average daily range, to generate a graph of the changing average lows and highs. It may turn out, for example, that we've been missing some greater cooling influence hidden by the reduced daily temp range, and if so, then we may need a different intervention approach because reducing warming overall could then result in problematic global cooling.
So because a) nighttime lows have been warming at an even faster rate than have daytime highs, there's b) less of a dirunal temperature differential overall, meaning that c) we're missing out on an "underated... cooling influence" that could lead to "problematic global cooling"?

Did I read that right? And if I did, isn't that a little like telling the traffic cop who pulled you over that you don't deserve a ticket because, while you were indeed driving 55 miles per hour over the speed limit, you were only driving five mile per hour faster than you normally drive?
Quoting 36. islander101010:

bloggers. where are you going? end of the line is coming
I go over to Americanwx.They have a mid-Atlantic page and a Tropical Weather page (that is more active of course in the summer months).I'll have to wait and see how this new layout looks first.Hopefully its not to ugly or difficult to navigate through but I was never a huge fan of disquis or how ever its spelled.
India Already Facing Water Shortages Ahead of Dry Season

Spring in India can be a rough time for farmers in a warming world.

The vast, flat lands that compose much of India depend on waters flowing down from snow melting in the Himalayas. And a reliable influx of moisture in the form of the Southeast Asian Monsoon is a much-needed backstop to the heat and dryness of April, May, and early June.

But the warming of our world through fossil fuel burning and related greenhouse gas emissions is causing the glaciers of the Himalayas to melt. It is causing temperatures during spring to increase — which more rapidly dries the rivers and wells of India’s plains. It is creating a hot, dry atmospheric barrier that increasingly delays the onset of India’s monsoon. And since the 1950s India’s rainfall rates have been decreasing.


Link
From CNN:

Neil deGrasse Tyson goes supernova on Trump budget

Video: deGrasse Tyson: 'I'm duty-bound to educate the citizenry' 06:44

(CNN) Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson believes President Donald Trump's first proposed budget could make America "weak," "sick" and "stupid."

"The fastest way to Make America Weak Again: Cut science funds to our agencies that support it," he tweeted Sunday as part of a social media rampage against the President. "The fastest way to Make America Sick Again: Cut funding to the National Institutes of Health."

"The fastest way to Make America Stupid: Cut funds to programs that support education," Tyson added. "The fastest way to thwart Earth's life-support systems for us all: Turn EPA into EDA — the Environmental Destruction Agency."

[...]

"We can all imagine a land that provides no support for Art. But is that a place you'd want to Live? To Visit? To Play," Tyson tweeted.

"We all want to Make America Great Again. But that won't happen until we first Make America Smart Again," he added.

Click here to read full article.
Snowy equinox sunrise (March 20, 2017) at Loughcrew cairns, County Meath, lighting up the c. 5000 year old Neolithic passage tombs. Note that in the top photograph the stones are not perfectly aligned with the sun, but they were 5,000 years ago.



Xandra, good for Neil deGrasse Tyson!
Quoting 21. Famoguy1234:



What the heck?


Very close to my brothers house, and Yes, California. Northern California gets a few...
Severe Weather filling up the webpage.


Xcel announces $1.6 billion investment in wind energy from South Plains, N.M.

AMARILLO - Xcel Energy filed to build two new wind energy developments on Tuesday, as well entering a long-term contract with two existing sites on the South Plains and Eastern New Mexico, adding 1,230 megawatts — enough energy to power 440,000 homes — to its regional system. .................. Thanks to what seems like a never-ending supply of wind blowing across the plains, federal tax credits, and reduced construction costs for turbines, Xcel is expecting to save $2.8 billion on electricity costs after paying back the $1.6 billion investment, regional president David Hudson said.

“We are getting this wind energy on an aggregate basis so inexpensively that it’s going to be comparable to coal fuel costs,” Hudson said. “That’s how inexpensive this is.”


Link
Now, California’s Almonds Are Getting Destroyed by Too Much Rain

California’s poor produce cannot catch a break. Just months ago, severe drought had wine grapes withering on the vine, and Americans were worried they’d eaten their last avocado. But now? Record rainfall is killing the state’s almonds and salad greens, two foods it’s a top producer of. More than 27 inches of rain have fallen this winter, the most ever recorded. Among other problems, that’s kept bees from pollinating almond trees like they normally would during the nut’s short bloom period. ............... The country’s biggest artichoke producer also warns that everybody should brace now for “supply gaps,” and costs on the produce aisle are getting out of whack already: Cauliflower prices have almost quadrupled over the weird winter, and the going rate for a case of romaine is now $50 instead of $12.

Link
Ice cap in place for millions of years is on track to vanish

The current rate of warming in the Arctic is unprecedented in the last 2.5 million years, a new study has found.

Global warming is causing significant melting throughout the region and will claim the last remnants of a massive ice sheet that once covered all of North America and that remained stable for 2,000 years, according to findings published yesterday in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. The Barnes Ice Cap, which is about the size of Delaware and is located on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is likely to disappear even if humanity curtails its combustion of fossil fuels at levels not currently expected, even under the most conservative estimations. ................ "It really says we're looking at a fundamentally new climate state that we're moving into that we probably haven't seen at all in the last 2 million years, at least the last million years, which gives more urgency to trying to understand what the eventual expectations are for loss of ice mass in the Arctic," he said.

The Laurentide ice sheet covered North American for more than 2 million years, shrinking and growing due to climatic changes. About 14,000 years ago, it retreated as the Earth warmed, then stabilized about 2,000 years ago. In that time, the one section that essentially remained covered for millions of years was the Barnes Ice Cap. The disappearance of the cap, which is now 1,600 feet thick, will be accompanied by melting at much larger glaciers in the Arctic, including those that will be accompanied by sea ice loss.


"In the short term, these little glaciers are contributing as much as the big ones, but very soon, the big ice caps will take over as being the dominant source of sea level as we move into the next decade or two," he said.
7,000 underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic
By The Siberian Times reporter20 March 2017
Bulging bumps in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas believed to be caused by thawing permafrost releasing methane.

Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled 'bubbles' expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.
A number of large craters - seen on our images here - have appeared on the landscape in northern Siberia in recent years and they are being carefully studied by scientists who believe they were formed when pingos exploded.
Alexey Titovsky, director of Yamal department for science and innovation, said: 'At first such a bump is a bubble, or 'bulgunyakh' in the local Yakut language.
'With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas. This is how gigantic funnels form.'


Link
'An abnormally warm summer in 2016 on the Yamal peninsula must have added to the process.'
Analysis last year of the Bely island underground gas pockets - or jelly-like bubbles - showed multiple excesses of greenhouse gas content compared with average levels in the atmosphere.
Methane exceeded the norm 1,000 times, while carbon dioxide was 25 times above the norm. Initial measurements had suggest methane levels 200 times above usual levels.


Link
Quoting 17. kparcell:

I think it may be good to bear in mind that most daily lows occur just before daybreak, so the greater average warming of nighttime compared to average warming of daytime would certainly imply far fewer new record lows compared to record highs.


No, if the climate gets cooler we'll get plenty of cool nights. The point is the climate is warmer so the nights are going to be warmer.
World abandoning coal in dramatic style raises hope of avoiding dangerous global warming, says report
Donald Trump may be planning a revival of the dirtiest of the fossil fuels, but the rest of the planet appears to be going green insteadLauri Myllyvirta, senior global coal and air polliution campaigner at Greenpeace, said: “China all but stopped new coal projects after astonishing clean energy growth has made new coal-fired power plants redundant, with all additional power needs covered from non-fossil sources since 2013.

“Closures of old coal plants drove major emission reductions especially in the US and UK, while Belgium and Ontario became entirely coal-free and three G8 countries announced deadlines for coal phase-outs.”



Link

Current trends do not seem to favor an active Atlantic hurricane season, especially in the deep tropics and Caribbean.


Also, the AMO looks the most "negative" I've seen it in a long time...

The Laurentide Ice Sheet has existed in some form for 2.6 million years. Climate change is slated to knock it off



The Barnes Ice Cap covers an area about the size of Delaware. After reaching a near steady state 2,000 years ago, the ice cap began shrinking in the late 1800s, with a marked increase in its decline since the 1990s. That coincides with the rapid rise in human carbon pollution, which has also driven a roughly 1.8°F increase in the global average temperature over that period.

But researchers can look back much deeper into the ice cap’s history using other clues. The new research, published on Monday in Geophysical Research Letters, looked at an array of amazingly named cosmogenic radionuclides in bedrock around the ice cap to tease out when the ground was free of ice.

Cosmogenic radionuclides are isotopes that form when exposed to cosmic rays. That can only happen when the ground isn’t covered by ice, giving researchers a way to see how rare the current shrinking ice cap is.


Their findings show that there were two periods where ice extent was roughly as tiny as it is now. Both periods came hundreds of thousands of years ago and were due to natural changes in the earth’s tilt and orbit that helped warm the planet.
NASA video showing August 21, 2017 solar eclipse path across the USA. Five months from today.

Quoting 49. RobertWC:



remember methane has potential for warming about 4X that of carbon dioxide. In addition, it increases the retention of atmospheric water vapor, which increases its actual 100 year average to about 34 times that of carbon dioxide more potent as a global warming accelerant should just be burned then to just release but its unstoppable now


faster and faster

Map of total solar eclipse path over the USA. Click to expand. And it will. A lot.

Ultra-detailed map of solar eclipse path across Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Just for Nathan; no one else is allowed to click on it :) Expands a lot.

Where we will be for the solar eclipse, inside the 2 minute 35 second line :)

Quoting 56. RobertWC:

What are we looking at here?

.10" today and tomorrow (est.)
61. BaltimoreBrian

The thread loading when to hell on your solar posts here/ May be my brain damaged machine . may be your link.
Quoting 54. HurricaneFan:

Current trends do not seem to favor an active Atlantic hurricane season, especially in the deep tropics and Caribbean.


Also, the AMO looks the most "negative" I've seen it in a long time...




That's providing that the CFS is correct
I don't think the CFS is

anyway we will get a clearer picture once we start to clear out of the Spring Predictability Barrier
Quoting 62. oldnewmex:


What are we looking at here?


The death of a very old world , the last scrap . This is last of the ice that made the Great Lakes. It's 2.5 million years old. It looks tiny , but it's the size of Delaware. But if one remembers it's melt out . It changed the world.

Let's take the "Benches" around Salt Lake . You can see where the lake dropped as the melt moved on.

Let's take the Ice dam at Missoula , a giant lake behind an ice dam failed. One of the great floods the Earth has ever occurred . We see this on the land.

And the melt out theory in the East . An other Ice dam failed.

What it means we kiss that all good bye. And march into a brave new world.
For system #1, TCWC Perth has stopped making advices for Western Australia earlier today as the tropical low was not expected to become a category one cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:10 PM WST March 22 2017
==================================

System #1
---------------

At 9:00 AM WST, A tropical low lies near 17.2S 116.5E (about 410 km north northwest of Port Hedland) and will move south to southeast towards the Pilbara coast today and Thursday. It is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before it crosses the Pilbara coast on Thursday. However squally thunderstorm may occur, mainly on the southern and eastern periphery today and Thursday. During Friday and Saturday the system will weaken as it moves southeast overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: VERY LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW

System #2
---------------

A low is developing along the monsoon trough near 10.0S 98.0E northeast of Cocos Islands. The low is expected to develop further on Thursday and Friday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone during Thursday and Friday. However, it should move towards the southeast over open waters away from Cocos Islands and not impact the islands. The system should then weaken over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: MODERATE
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 22 2017
==================================

A low pressure system southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the coming days, particularly from Saturday onwards.

At this stage, the likelihood for a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region is moderate - this rating should continue into next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: VERY LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
btw did anyone notice that the Atlantic tropical floater is active again and again with the tag 14L

Link

question are they testing GOES-16 on the tropical floaters?
Quoting 105. elioe:



Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.

(Brought forward from the last blog.)

If you're going to move to the coasts of Oregon, Washington or BC I would get a place at least 100 feet above sea level. When the Cascadia subduction zone lets loose with a magnitude 9 earthquake it will create a tsunami like the 2004 Indonesian one or the 2011 one that took out the Fukushima nuclear plants. The last big earthquake on the CSZ was January 27, 1700, 317 years ago. The next one could happen at any time and is likely in the next 200 years or so.
Quoting 105. elioe:


Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.


I'd point out as a person living in Michigan, the Upper Peninsula and northern part of the Lower Peninsula may not be the best bet either. With the lack of ice cover on the Great Lakes due to warming these regions will most likely see increases in lake effect snow...so I hope you like getting buried in snow in winter.
From EWG:

EWG Report: Is Federal Crop Insurance Policy Leading to a New Dust Bowl?



AMES, Iowa – Federal crop insurance policy is rewarding Southern Great Plains farmers’ failure to adapt to drought and hotter weather, and encouraging practices that could lead to another Dust Bowl, according to a new report by the Environmental Working Group.

The Dust Bowl that devastated the region in the 1930s was one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history. Searing heat and drought, the conversion of more than five million acres of grassland into cropland, and farmers’ failure to adapt to the dry climate inflicted disease, hunger and poverty on the region’s people.

Today drought is once again parching the Southern Plains. Scientists say hot and dry conditions could become the region’s new normal, making it urgent that farmers adapt to the changing climate. Instead, a provision of the federal crop insurance program – snuck into the 2014 Farm Bill with little notice – encourages farmers to plant the same crops in the same way, year after year.

Click here to read more.

EWG Report: Is Federal Crop Insurance Policy Leading to a New Dust Bowl?

INTERACTIVE MAP

---------------

See also: Farm Policy in Age of Climate Change Creating Another Dust Bowl, Critics Say

"When people think of the Dust Bowl, they think of it as a drought. It was really about poor farming practices, plus drought," Cox said. "Absent the poor farming practices, it wouldn't have been the disaster it became."
Good Morning Friends; the Conus forecast for today and current look:




Quoting 71. RunningTrauma:



I'd point out as a person living in Michigan, the Upper Peninsula and northern part of the Lower Peninsula may not be the best bet either. With the lack of ice cover on the Great Lakes due to warming these regions will most likely see increases in lake effect snow...so I hope you like getting buried in snow in winter.

Won't take long, it'll all be just rain soon.
Quoting 71. RunningTrauma:



I'd point out as a person living in Michigan, the Upper Peninsula and northern part of the Lower Peninsula may not be the best bet either. With the lack of ice cover on the Great Lakes due to warming these regions will most likely see increases in lake effect snow...so I hope you like getting buried in snow in winter.


Relatively good bets, I would say. Lake effect snow is one hindrance of course, but big lakes in many directions moderate any extreme temperature fluctuations. Especially since they are going to be icefree all year round. Actually, I think that Mackinaw City/St. Ignace and Sault Ste. Marie will be thriving metropoleis by the end of this century.
And look at all of the hail and high wind reports from yesterday as that front pushed East from Tennessee and finally off the Coast today; it got very bumpy yesterday afternoon but at least no tornadoes on this chart:

today Reports Graphic
Quoting 72. Xandra:

...making it urgent that farmers adapt to the changing climate. Instead, a provision of the federal crop insurance program – snuck into the 2014 Farm Bill with little notice – encourages farmers to plant the same crops in the same way, year after year.

Click


As does the fact that 50% of all farm subsidies in the US go to corn and wheat production.
From The Japan Times:


The snow-covered summit of Mount Illimani is seen from La Paz Golf Club in the Bolivian capital, with indigenous Aymara women in the foreground, in November 2008. | AFP-JIJI

As glaciers melt, project seeks to preserve ice cores showing climate history

PARIS – Locked up in 140 meters (460 feet) of ice capping a Bolivian mountain lie 18,000 years of climate history, dating back to an epoch when humans were only just learning to farm.

But this precious archive of environmental change since the last Ice Age is melting fast, to the despair of scientists.

They have decided to take matters in hand, in a remarkable initiative that combines glaciology with high-altitude trekking.

An international team will set out in May on a grueling trip up Bolivia’s 6,400-meter Mount Illimani to drill three ice cores from its crowning glacier.

These will be preserved for posterity, along with cores from other glaciers, in the natural freezer that is Antarctica.

“Eventually, these ice cores will be all that is left of the glaciers,” said Jerome Chappellaz of France’s CNRS research institute, a partner in the endeavor, which has been dubbed Ice Memory.

Glacier ice contains traces of gas, chemicals and dust. Analyzed in the lab, this is a treasure trove of data on past changes in the climate and environment, including rainfall trends, forest fires, atmospheric temperatures, levels of greenhouse gases and chemical pollutants. They provide a crucial benchmark for understanding how our climate is mutating.

“The glaciers … hold the memory of former climates and help to predict future environmental changes,” said the Institute of Research for Development (IRD), another French mission member.

But time is running out.

“If global warming continues at its current rate, glaciers at an altitude below 3,500 meters in the Alps and 5,400 meters in the Andes will have disappeared by the end of the 21st century,” said the IRD. “These are unique pages in the history of our environment which will … be lost forever.”

Click here to read more.
And an interesting overnight post from Science Mag on the world's most air polluted cities; I posted a recent research post last week on the issue of smog in China and a correlation with a change in their prevailing wind patterns, creating thicker smog around Bejing, when ice levels are way down in the Arctic over the Winter and especially around February.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/here -are-some-world-s-worst-cities-air-quality

Trying to get away from airborne ammonia? Don’t linger in Lagos or Delhi. If you’re bent on avoiding ozone, you might want to add Beijing, Karachi, and Los Angeles to your list. These are some of the cities with the world’s worst air quality, according to a new analysis of four major gasses associated with air pollution: ammonia, formic acid, methanol, and ozone. The findings could help scientists better understand how geography and other local conditions play a role in determining air quality.

“It is critical to better understand what is contributing to air pollution … to protect growing populations from negative public health impacts,” says Miriam Marlier, an environmental scientist at Columbia University not involved in the study.

Poor air quality can lead to a host of health problems, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease. But measuring air quality is hard: Many cities—especially those in developing countries—lack the ground- and aircraft-based sensors and the trained personnel to repeatedly monitor conditions over large areas.

And here is the chart from the article on harmful ozone levels:



Quoting 75. elioe:



Relatively good bets, I would say. Lake effect snow is one hindrance of course, but big lakes in many directions moderate any extreme temperature fluctuations. Especially since they are going to be icefree all year round. Actually, I think that Mackinaw City/St. Ignace and Sault Ste. Marie will be thriving metropoleis by the end of this century.


My money is actually on the Traverse City/Charlevoix/Petoskey corridor. Fertile farmland, great views, winter sports mecca, a booming viticulture industry etc etc
The article below illustrates the issue of how important it is to fund governmental agencies (like the EPA), and university research, who monitor and do research on air and environmental pollution. If you cut funding for these areas, and it results in less pollution monitoring and warnings for folks who can be affected by these issues, then the people living in these areas can become proverbial Canaries in a Coal Mine.....................................
Heat associated with mental illness...
Link
Are there any studies regarding the lack of solar activity leading to an increase in cosmic rays and cloudiness? Just curious if anyone thinks that perhaps more meta information from the sun could shed some light on what is causing the temperature anomalies discussed in this article.
Quoting 85. TBayEyes:

Are there any studies regarding the lack of solar activity leading to an increase in cosmic rays and cloudiness? Just curious if anyone thinks that perhaps more meta information from the sun could shed some light on what is causing the temperature anomalies discussed in this article.

What the science says...

What's the link between cosmic rays and climate change?

Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions
Quoting 44. PedleyCA:



Very close to my brothers house, and Yes, California. Northern California gets a few...


I was working outside all afternoon (on my knees in pig poop, working on fencing problems.)

Just outside Fallon, we are usually in a precip shadow. Around 4pm I smelled the hail, but it missed me and hit inside town (where my housemates were at an Equinox BBQ with one of our pigs as a guest of honor.)

Did I smell it literally? Kind of. When the cold air mixes down it kicks up ground scents, dust particles, along with the cold air that has a faint smell of snow. Plus my stormy day headache spiked. Didn't know about any warnings out in NorCal, but I'm completely not surprised. Took our potted citrus out of the greenhouses and into the house about sunset.
Quoting 85. TBayEyes:

Are there any studies regarding the lack of solar activity leading to an increase in cosmic rays and cloudiness? Just curious if anyone thinks that perhaps more meta information from the sun could shed some light on what is causing the temperature anomalies discussed in this article.


Patrap (and I hope he is ok) posted some great scientific links a few weeks ago which conclusively exclude the Sun as the cause of the current accelerated warming phase due to Co2 emissions. At the more practical end of this issue, I believe that "official" temperature readings have to be taken from a thermometer in the shade; why you see those little wooden boxes with slats attached to many Noaa and Airport weather sites.
Philippines' Ratification of Paris Agreement Cheers Climate World
With its populist leader, Rodrigo Duterte, making a U-turn on the international climate accord, one of the world's most vulnerable countries keeps leading role.
Inside Climate News, By Zahra Hirji, Mar 21, 2017
When the Philippines' senate unanimously approved the government's ratification of the Paris climate agreement last week, climate activists breathed a sigh of relief.
The vote ended months of uncertainty over whether the Philippines' new populist leader, Rodrigo Duterte, would exit the accord. The country, among the nations most vulnerable to climate change impacts, has played a pivotal role as a moral voice in the international climate negotiations. It also served as a bridge-builder between wealthy and poor nations in the run up to the Paris accord. ...


Trump Lays Plans to Reverse Obama's Climate Change Legacy
New York Times, March 21, 2017
WASHINGTON - President Trump is poised in the coming days to announce his plans to dismantle the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's climate change legacy, while also gutting several smaller but significant policies aimed at curbing global warming.
The moves are intended to send an unmistakable signal to the nation and the world that Mr. Trump intends to follow through on his campaign vows to rip apart every element of what the president has called Mr. Obama's "stupid" policies to address climate change. The timing and exact form of the announcement remain unsettled, however. (...)
While the White House is not expected to explicitly say the United States is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, and people familiar with the White House deliberations say Mr. Trump has not decided whether to do so, the policy reversals would make it virtually impossible to meet the emissions reduction goals set by the Obama administration under the international agreement. ...

Full texts see links above.

Carbon tax debate exposed rift among Trump's aides
Moderates and hardline conservatives are vying for the ideological core of the White House.
Politico, by Josh Dawsey, Annie Karni and Andrew Restuccia, 03/21/17 06:17 PM EDT
90. JRRP


near Bahamas...
Put the rainfall and air-conditioning back into trees, scientists say
by J.D. Capelouto, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Tuesday, 21 March 2017 16:31 GMT
Trees cool the earth's surface, and release chemicals that can lead to the formation of clouds

Somaliland drought "a kind of nightmare" – and a security threat: minister
by Laurie Goering, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 22 March 2017 12:02 GMT
Prolonged drought in Somaliland has killed between 65 and 80 percent of the semi-autonomous region's livestock, creating conditions that are "the worst time in our lives" and could threaten regional security, says the region's environment minister. ...

Solar boreholes, irrigated crops throw lifeline to Kenyan herders
by Anthony Lang'at, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 22 March 2017 12:00 GMT
Many Kenyan livestock keepers are losing their animals to drought - but some are staying afloat by using solar-powered pumps and growing vegetables ...
Quoting 74. cRRKampen:


Won't take long, it'll all be just rain soon.


I don't think even the most extreme warming projections have upper Michigan becoming snowless in winter.
Quoting 85. TBayEyes:

Are there any studies regarding the lack of solar activity leading to an increase in cosmic rays and cloudiness? Just curious if anyone thinks that perhaps more meta information from the sun could shed some light on what is causing the temperature anomalies discussed in this article.

In a nutshell. THe sun is getting weaker. We should be griping about slow cooling. The warming terms (C02 and increased water vapor and reduced boreal high latitude albedo) are more than compensating for this slight cooling from solar dimming.
Sideglance to European weather: there is a huge trough with cold air bearing down over the Atlantic on the Iberian peninsula which won't help the recovery of vegetables growing in Spain, I'm afraid. Meanwhile in Germany: sunny spring weather ahead of us!



Spanish crops still “thin on the ground” as the impact of extreme weather continues
by Gaynor Selby, 22 March 2017
The impacts of the extreme weather in Spain earlier this year are still being felt by UK suppliers as planting gaps caused by lack of accessibility during December and January continue to restrict broccoli, salad crops and pepper. ... The extreme weather not only wiped out high volumes of some crops at the time leading to rationing in supermarkets, but because new plantings were also scuppered, crop volumes remain low and there are knock on effects for many vegetables. ...
Quoting 57. BaltimoreBrian:

NASA video showing August 21, 2017 solar eclipse path across the USA. Five months from today.




I have a daughter that lives in Casper, Wyoming. She is strongly considering renting out rooms at her home for $500/night during this event. Casper will be in a prime viewing area for this event.
As the Pacific Jet starts entering the US in earnest over the next 24 hours, we are starting to see some of the initial slight risk charts from SPC for tomorrow and Friday:




Thursday:



Friday:

Quoting 96. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have a daughter that lives in Casper, Wyoming. She is strongly considering renting out rooms at her home for $500/night during this event. Casper will be in a prime viewing area for this event.


April 8th 2024 total eclipse going over Texas, I'll be driving to Corsicana for that one
Quoting 96. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have a daughter that lives in Casper, Wyoming. She is strongly considering renting out rooms at her home for $500/night during this event. Casper will be in a prime viewing area for this event.


And if it rains or snows that day?
People just assume the skies will be clear and you'll be able to view the eclipse.
That's the chance you'd have to take I guess.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 90. JRRP:



near Bahamas...


Don't know about that one but the model is probably picking up on a potential trof remnant off Florida after the next pending frontal passage and the current lowering of shear in that region; too early to call it a current "ghost" system until what is out there in that depicted time frame:



Quoting 99. Sfloridacat5:



And if it rains or snows that day?
People just assume the skies will be clear and you'll be able to view the eclipse.
That's the chance you'd have to take I guess.


She has told me that hotels/motels there were already fully booked a few months ago for this event. They were renting from $750 - $1,000/night, in some instances. Snow will not be likely then, but always prepare for wind while in Casper. I was lucky when a visited them for my grandson's graduation nearly three years ago. There was not much wind there then, but this was at the end of May. There was beautiful weather for the three days that I was there.
Quoting 98. RitaEvac:



April 8th 2024 total eclipse going over Texas, I'll be driving to Corsicana for that one


Sounds like an excellent plan. I might make that trip myself. :) I have a brother that lives near Centerville.
Quoting 102. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



She has told me that hotels/motels there were already fully booked a few months ago for this event. They were renting from $750 - $1,000/night, in some instances. Snow will not be likely then, but always prepare for wind while in Casper. I was lucky when a visited them for my grandson's graduation nearly three years ago. There was not much wind there then, but this was at the end of May. There was beautiful weather for the three days that I was there.


For $1000 a night I'd rent all my bedrooms and I would sleep in a tent in my backyard.
Quoting 93. georgevandenberghe:



I don't think even the most extreme warming projections have upper Michigan becoming snowless in winter.


That's because none of them correctly reckon with 'Arctic Implosion'.
Please, don't be surprised when you're there.