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The destruction of Gilchrist, Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on September 17, 2008

We're in day three of my promised 7-10 day lull in Atlantic hurricane activity. That prediction is still looking good. There are no threat areas to discuss today, and the earliest any model foresees a tropical storm developing is Sunday, when the NOGAPS indicates something developing in the western Caribbean. The GFS model predicts this development will occur on the other side of Central America, in the Eastern Pacific. The GFS also predicts development of a tropical depression by Tuesday off the coast of Africa.

The destruction of Gilchrist
Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.



Figure 1. The town of Gilchrist, Texas before and after Hurricane Ike. Image credit (top): Googlemaps.com, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Houston-Galveston Area Council. Bottom: National Geodetic Survey.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed?
It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?
I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist's location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Mt. Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800's. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town's 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under four feet of water in Matagorda Bay.


Figure 2. The Bolivar Peninsula, Texas before Hurricane Ike. The "A" pink balloon marker shows the location of Crystal Beach. Gilchrist is to the northeast of Crystal Beach, at a point where the peninsula narrows down to just a few hundred meters wide. Image credit: Googlemaps.com, TerraMetrica, LeadDog Consulting, Tele Atlas.

Links to follow
High-resolution photos of the Bolivar Peninsula are available using Microsoft's HD View Beta.

How you can help
For those of you who want to help those in need, I'm proud to say that a group of wunderground members are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas. They've already raised $5000, and the first relief truck with supplies is on the way to Texas. Deductions are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Everything they are doing is at the specific request of people on the scene. At the request of the Director of Disability Affairs for the Mayor of Houston, they are sending 50 wheelchairs, 500 walkers, 200 pairs of crutches, and several pallets of first aid supplies. They are also sending a 16-foot truck from Charleston loaded with drinks, personal hygiene products, and non perishable food items. A truck is heading out of New Orleans with similar supplies. Every Catholic school in South Carolina is collecting supplies with the goal of filling two more trucks.

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!

Jeff Masters
San Leon,Texas Devastated by Hurricane Ike pt.3
San Leon,Texas Devastated by Hurricane Ike pt.3
Images taken in San Leon,Texas along Bayshore Dr.and Ave A 1/2 Tuesday afternoon. The devastation caused by Hurricane Ike is something that will take this community years to recover from. Relief crews from both the National Guard as well as the Red Cross were seen this afternoon. Quite a few residents will find that they no longer have a home when they return. Those that rode the storm out along the bayshore are fortunate to be still with us as there have been quite a few fatalities in just this small community.Electricity is weeks if not months off...and water service will be a week or more before it can be restored. Crews were out this afternoon shutting off service to meters that had no home any longer. The mosquitos are out in clouds but at least
no coment
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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. KRL
I'd say deeper water channels developed on both sides of that house which would have lessened the surge pressure in the middle. Possibly the angle of the debris in front of it formed a nice V shape to deflect the force of the flow. Or the pilings on the foundation could have been drilled deeper than the other homes. Or it was Photoshopped in perhaps.
Quoting 2ifbyC:


GASP!!! He was prepared?!?!?


Or the employees can't afford generators. Let's be somewhat compassionate here, even if you followed every possible preparation check list to a T you can understand this guy's frustration. He may have all the other things on the checklist except the generator. Was he any less prepared? But after several days in the heat and dark, yes he is a little envious of his boss and perhaps would appreciate it if his boss could extend a neighborly helping hand and offer up one of his 4 generators. Just trying to play Devil's Advocate here.
Quoting KRL:
Or it was Photoshopped in perhaps.


Too many pics at different angles, plus TV footage!
CyberTeddy... that house is supposed to be about three blocks up and two down... I read it was moved by the water pretty far from its original position... I'd be surprised if it was anything more than a shell
the devil requires no advocacy....LOL
Storm, Are you still here?
folks, it's nearly impossible for a house to "slide" or "move" and still stay on its piling foundation. for that to be even remotely possible, a phenomenon known as "soil liquefaction" would have to occur...this phenomenon most commonly occurs during earthquakes and does not usually present without some noticeable subsidence. the water is closer to the house due to beach erosion. the house did not move, the beach did. if i had to guess, the house survived because it is newer construction as is evidenced by the fact that it is not on the older Google Earth photos.

just my two cents....
pearland aggie you back in Pearland yet?
509. been back since Sunday.
Response to 421:

I think I can understand, to a point where you are coming from, but to blame the NWS is not the problem, what is the problem is the guy that was used to interpret the data.

if you looked around during the approach of Ike, who was saying what?

was the NWS down playing this as "only a cat-2 hurricane", or where they like Dr. Jeff explaining it for what Ike was, I never heard of the I.K.E. scale until Dr. Jeff talk about it, and being able to use that in explaining it to others...yes I did very much so tell people hey look...

IF there was to be a change, what I would do is take every "weather reporter" who blaz’aed the data, and pull there FCC and fire them from the field and have them begin reporting on the matting habits of ground hogs.

in what I did see, which left me spinning in the wind here in Rochester, New York left me really twisted on who could be right and who could be wrong...about the guts of Ike.

accuweather, omg, please, I figured out that accuweather's weathermen are the ones who just got out of the collage and didn't cut it working on a local network, most of there reports where let say a little off....

Fox and CNN-> they where not in front of the storm persay, they where busy reporting on what happen behind the storm, reporting about it was a sound bite at best until the hurricane was just off shore.

The local Galveston weather guy and the Huston weather guy, both seem to be very bla’za about Ike, one referred to it as a slow moving skating hockey player....

Now taking the local weather guy...who would the the local government trust, al ropper or their "Local weather guy", remember government works it way from within, local to town to city to county to state. From where it began to where it ended each step of the way each person had to use his or her resources to validate the "next step", again I see the person having to take the next step calling Joe their local weather guy and asking their opinion...

Now, the kick in the shorts is people not thinking they can't call their Local weather guy's station and ask them to question him, to in short pull him in on the carpet and make him accountable, I do it and have done it. The perfect example was with Fay while she was over Jacksonville, one of our local guys said "she was out of here to the east...out to sea", yes I called the station and rip the manager a new one with the weather guy in a conference call after the evening news. Who am I? no one, I am a medically retired over the road truck driver with 2 million miles under me I had to learn how to understand the weather 3 or 4 days ahead of...yesterday, because of how I ran i needed to know where I wanted to be when (a) front was going to break, or if (A) and (b) get together, I don't want to be there when they did, and I knew in this case with Fay, the guy was way wrong.

I guess it would be better if I just prove that last line, see with Dr. jeff help, and all of yours, I help tell members of my group with what to expect during a show for our classic boats, great example would be Ron V. from N.J. who went to the Tuckerton Boat show at the Tuckerton seaport in NJ the weekend of Hanna...

Link

As I have Said I am in Rochester NY, and with weather underground and the information I can get on an local area I can tell the members of Fiberglassics.com who travel 300 to 700 miles to go to a show what to expect.

I think the "local" weather men, should be held accountable, hold them to the fire like DOT hold truckers, make the broadcaster hold them to judgment on their job performance, like what happen with Ike...how well they do their job makes them reasonable for lives, just like truckers have to perform so doesn’t weathermen.
Quoting Vero1:


It's a round-about-way for the government to "nationalize" businesses.


a la socialism/juntas ... Time for a 'cane of a different nature!
Wow just looking at the destruction category two hurricane Ike left, I'd say its time for a new revised scale for hurricane damage should be in place. Just like they recently did with the Enhanced Fujitta Scale.
I live in the center of Pearland and have not been out much but around us we have alot of trees down and roofs gone. We just got our DSL back up but no home phone yet. We lost elc. for about 12hrs. We are next to the EOC so they got us back up. How did you fare?
Quoting pearlandaggie:
folks, it's nearly impossible for a house to "slide" or "move" and still stay on its piling foundation. for that to be even remotely possible, a phenomenon known as "soil liquefaction" would have to occur...this phenomenon most commonly occurs during earthquakes and does not usually present without some noticeable subsidence. the water is closer to the house due to beach erosion. the house did not move, the beach did. if i had to guess, the house survived because it is newer construction as is evidenced by the fact that it is not on the older Google Earth photos.

just my two cents....


Doggone it. You just ruined my conspiracy theories. ;) Wait, did you just say Ike caused an earthquake too??? So maybe there was something to the black hole thing at CERN after all. lol
515. you know...the usual...fences down, shingles off, minor water damage, one uprooted tree. very lucky overall. got power back after 26 hours because of our proximity to a water treatment plant.

516. LOL...that's NOT exactly what i said :)
Check your mail. Do you have a G-Mail account?
KRL, I think the photoshop thing is out. Too many images of the house from different angles.
Looking at one of the images taken at the height of the surge posted earlier, it is probable that the sea-floor in that area is harder material than surrounding. Also probable that the sea-floor formed a break just offshore of the house, lessening the effect of the wave action. The aerial photo of the house at the height of the surge shows big breaking waves to the left and right, but not directly in front {could be there was no wave in front at the time}
Also, looking at the image, see that there is some kind of structure in the surf. The distance from the house to that would suggest at least one more building was there. Its foundation and floorslab could have created a breakwater as well.
Also, if there is a rock base there, as evidenced by the remains of what looks to be a seawall in the surf, then the sea wall would have stood for longer than surrounding areas.
All conjecture. Strange stuff happens........
the "lone house" was not for sale Link
Quoting StormW:
506. UWalkTheMall 10:13 PM EDT on September 17, 2008
Storm, Are you still here?


Yes.
Hi Storm Bet the Comuter is running like a new car eh? hope all is well.
when will we start seeing activity picking up in the atlantic again?
522. hopefully NEVER! :)
i'm beginning to become intimately acquainted with the term "hurricane fatigue"...
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
the "lone house" was not for sale Link


Well, they are all worth about the same amount now.
Here is the explanation of the lone house, that I found.. on Church Street.
Link
522

Due to exhaustion and a general weariness on the part of all the participants in hurricane season throughout the entire Atlantic Basin, the remainder of the season has been canceled.

Models will be updated and reflect this change shortly.
Quoting dean2007:
Wow just looking at the destruction category two hurricane Ike left, I'd say its time for a new revised scale for hurricane damage should be in place. Just like they recently did with the Enhanced Fujitta Scale.


wouldn't mind seeing a change for tornado's either. In the past a tornado warning meant one had been spotted. Now when doppler radar picks up spinning in the clouds they issue warning and more often than not a funnel never appears. They need a third threat. Maybe tornado immediate or something to distinguish between spotted funnel and doppler cloud warning.
Quoting CapeObserver:


Or the employees can't afford generators. Let's be somewhat compassionate here, even if you followed every possible preparation check list to a T you can understand this guy's frustration. He may have all the other things on the checklist except the generator. Was he any less prepared? But after several days in the heat and dark, yes he is a little envious of his boss and perhaps would appreciate it if his boss could extend a neighborly helping hand and offer up one of his 4 generators. Just trying to play Devil's Advocate here.


No, I was playing the DA. I personally know of the frustrations being suffered. But I never begrudged others that had more or suffered less. At least the poster was alive... So much for proper 'Thanks'...

...and yes, it would be proper for the boss to offer 'more help'. I have a spare gen set just for that purpose.
527. lol...that was worth the chuckle even though the gravity of the situation is overpowering...
Post 507. So, you are back ??
Quoting hurricanealley:
when will we start seeing activity picking up in the atlantic again?


I'd say in about a week; the MJO is already closing in again (likely to just skip the western-central Pacific like last time, probably due to the still relatively cool water there):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Or maybe even less from the looks of this...
Quoting lopaka001:
Not sure if anyone posted this link but some very sad shots of before and after.
Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons - Bolivar Peninsula, TX

...also got this disturbing message today from a friend did anyone in Texas hear about this or know if any of it is true?


If there were doubts remaining after Katrina, I think it's crystal clear now: people do not heed verbal warnings no matter how ominous they might be. Partly because when you're experiencing calm, mild weather, it's really difficult to imagine it will be shot to hell in a day or so, even when you've been seen it happen before. So, the next time a major storm is threatening the coast, local television stations in the threatened area should flash these photos on the screen for ten second intervals every hour or so. A picture truly is worth a thousand words. I am deeply saddened.
I will await your mail and continue from there.
I have really appreciated the information here. Ike was my first hurricane (being Canadian born) and it was an eye-opening experience. We live in Southeast Houston. Reading information on this site helped me to be better prepared. Thank you to everyone who posted advice as to how to prepare for a hurricane and for the information about the strength of this hurricane.
i'm out....have a good one, folks.
Quoting 2ifbyC:


No, I was playing the DA. I personally know of the frustrations being suffered. But I never begrudged others that had more or suffered less. At least the poster was alive... So much for proper 'Thanks'...

...and yes, it would be proper for the boss to offer 'more help'. I have a spare gen set just for that purpose.


Having a 2nd generator to offer someone else is very generous. I know I could barely afford mine, but after Charley and Wilma I found the money. I think this guy's posting is just a result of "hurricane fatigue". Not everyone is kind or generous of spirit during these events. Unfortunately tempers flare. I don't doubt that he is thankful for surviving. If he isn't then I'd say he hasn't had benefit of media to let him know what he truly did survive.
Seems to me that Amanda=Uwalkthemall=CapDan.=HDtivo4pres
Looks to me they are trying to set you up, StormW.
Early call tomorrow. Goodnight all.
Quoting SEFL:


FYI - "Eminent domain (United States), compulsory purchase (United Kingdom, New Zealand, Ireland), resumption/compulsory acquisition (Australia) or expropriation (South Africa and Canada) in common law legal systems is the inherent power of the state to seize a citizen's private property, expropriate property, or rights in property with due monetary compensation, but without the owner's consent.

Yes,Sir...I know what Eminent Donain means, I've been in construction for 32 years. But it never hurts to speak your peace....Thank you.
By the way, if your going to have a hero, your avatar certainly depicts a rightous one.
Quoting HDTivo4Prez:
Where is TropicalAmanda? I have not seen any post from her in awhile. Kudos to the newbie for predicting Ike's potential. I remember the first or second day she posted, she said the Ike would be trouble.



she was a troll,messing around w/people on the blog.whoever it was actually admited they were "trolling"....
Quoting pottery:
Seems to me that Amanda=Uwalkthemall=CapDan.
Looks to me they are trying to set you up, StormW.


ROTFLMAO!

I'll have one of whatever he's having.
I need help determining height of IKE surge in Bacliff, Texas. I own a house on shoreline that was surveyed in 2004 at 16' above MSL to the top of the floor. Although the front and back walls are gone due to debris carry through, in the back bathroom and utility closets (where I hope wave action was somewhat mitigated) the waterline is at consistent 13". This would tell me that a reasonable estimate of that surge was 17'1". Is this a reasonable estimate? When my father sighted and built house in 1951 the elevation was 20'5" and has subsided to 16'. Carla in 1961 did not top this bank.
Quoting CapeObserver:


I think this guy's posting is just a result of "hurricane fatigue". Not everyone is kind or generous of spirit during these events. Unfortunately tempers flare. I don't doubt that he is thankful for surviving. If he isn't then I'd say he hasn't had benefit of media to let him know what he truly did survive.


I totally agree with you. And thanx for putting his situation in perspective. My bad...

Also, Charlie was the one I truly feared (Tampa Bay area here). I guess he saw your Waffle House and was hungry... 8-)
One of the fascinating things about Ike is how widespread his damage went, especially up north. I happened to be driving up near Chicago today, and they've had massive flooding in some of the 'burbs due to the torrential rains caused by Ike. Several interstates are closed still due to levees breaking, and a few rivers are still rising. 7 people died in Indiana alone. Also, there was significant wind damage in southern Indiana, Ohio, and northern KY due to Ike, and I heard some damage as far east as upstate NY and even Canada! When the total losses for Ike are calculated, will these losses be included? Ike was officially "converting" into an extratropical low while getting sucked into a cold front when all of this happened -- not sure if this gets calculated into the official estimates or not, but Ike was the bad gift that just kept giving. A truly fascinating (and horrible!) storm.
Ladies and gentlemen...boys and girls...we are at about $7700....gonna do a lot of good with this project...Congratulations and thanks!!!!!!

I'm going to sleep...in fact, I may already be asleep...it's hard to tell....

www.portlight.org
Quoting stillwaiting:



she was a troll,messing around w/people on the blog.whoever it was actually admited they were "trolling"....


That IS tropicalamanda... just a new name.
Quoting pottery:
Seems to me that Amanda=Uwalkthemall=CapDan.=HDtivo4pres
Looks to me they are trying to set you up, StormW.


Watch your back Storm !! (Also topsides, keel, both beams, and focsle.
If you click on their blog name and their site doesn't give you any info at all, I'd be very careful with that one.
554. o311
is the old 92L coming back?
OK, I have an idea.

Obviously, Dr. M thinks highly of the efforts being put forth by members of this blog in the relief efforts. He has, or can get access to IP addresses for blog posts.

So far in the past 15 minutes or so, I have been accused of being:

Amanda
Uwalkthemall
HDtivo4pres

So here's the offer -

Anyone wishing to "out" me as any other identity other than this one, put your money where your mouth is. The bet is $50 US, per identity. I will take ALL bets. If you say I am one or more of the ID's we have seen, and IP records prove it to be true, I will donate $50 US per correct accusation.

But - if you are wrong - you make that same contribution.

This is also known as "Put up, or shut up."
Quoting WunderFul:
When the total losses for Ike are calculated, will these losses be included? Ike was officially "converting" into an extratropical low while getting sucked into a cold front when all of this happened -- not sure if this gets calculated into the official estimates or not, but Ike was the bad gift that just kept giving. A truly fascinating (and horrible!) storm.


Yes, since it is directly related to Ike it will be included (there are numerous other storms that similarly did a lot of damage well inland, and this was counted). Also stated here:

Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical or a wave or low.
I have not read most of the post yet, sorry if this has already been posted:

Quote from AP Article:

"GALVESTON, Texas - The death toll from Hurricane Ike is remarkably low so far, considering that legions of people stayed behind as the storm obliterated row after row of homes along the Texas coast. But officials suspect there are more victims out there and say some might simply have been swept out to sea.

Exactly how many is anybody's guess, because authorities had no sure way to track those who defied evacuation orders. And the number of people reported missing after the storm, whose death toll stands at 17 in Texas, is fluctuating."

...

"As the hurricane closed in, authorities in three counties alone estimated 90,000 people ignored evacuation orders. Post-storm rescuers in Galveston and the peninsula removed about 3,500 people, but another 6,000 refused to leave.

Nobody is suggesting that tens of thousands died, but determining what happened to those unaccounted for is a painstaking task that could leave survivors wondering for months or years to come.

Authorities concede that at least some of those who haven't turned up could have been washed out to sea, as at least one woman on the peninsula apparently was, and that other bodies might still be found.

"I'm not Pollyana. I think we will find some," said Galveston County Judge Jim Yarbrough, the county's highest-ranking elected official."

More interesting info in article.

Article Citation:

Some of Ike's missing may have just washed away
By JUAN A. LOZANO and MONICA RHOR (Associated Press Writers)
From Associated Press
September 17, 2008 9:39 PM EDT

Link

My thoughts, prayers, and postive energy are focused on all affected by Hurricane Ike.

Best wishes!
Back to the "lone" house. Look at the images above, in the Docs blog.
There is the dam house, as clear as day, in both the before and after images.
Dont know how we missed that.
StormW, been waiting for a lull in the tropics to ask you, but what sites do you use to figure steering patterns for hurricanes? Must confess that while I understand a lot more now than I use to (thanks to some great people in this blog), steering mostly baffles me. So maybe if I stare long enough at the sites you like and your prediction I will eventually figure it out. Thanks.
Quoting FLdewey:


That IS tropicalamanda... just a new name.


that's just great!!(NOT)people like that need to get a life AND LEAVE US ALONE!!!...
How about sinking the AIG building offshore to create a barrier island for the barrier island? Tell me again why a crazy amount of inflatable or floating plastic doohickeys, mounted to the ocean floor about .5 miles offshore, would not decrease wave action? I'm not the smartass who said to reduce hurricane force and drop the price of gas to $1.09, how about making a solid pier of oil rigs offshore (though not a bad idea). If you look at what the Dutch have done, that's a pretty primitive suggestion actually. I don't see why an enormous amount of plastic and non-recyclables can't be tethered in also-non-biodegradable nets along the cost, or used as concrete filler, to baffle the shore with those giant "jack" looking things. Seems like necessity is the mother of invention. WGP (Wave Generated Power). T.Boone and some European investors are looking for sites for this. I would challenge Gilchrist, Galveston and Bolivar community councils [opnce they dig out] to all apply for grants and participation to have those projects bring the traffic and tourism to rebuild thopse communities with all that money the feet will bring, and go from Eco-Disaster to Eco-Mastered. T. Boone, you on here? What are the FSU Superensemble's predics for the upcoming few weeks??? Tampa? Baja? StormW? (I always thought it was a student concert chorale, funny...):
HDtivo4pres

I must have been asleep. I hadn't heard of that one before. Any other suspects out there? lol
I'm lurking late tonight and caught some of the talk about that sole remaining home and it's relative value...I'm sorry if I'm coming in too late - we're still dealing with our own Ike induced issues...
Today, I have only read the newspaper and MSN/Yahoo news sources and at some point I read that homes damaged on the beaches of Texas due to a hurricane automatically become property of the state. The article didn't mention eminent domain, so I don't know if it legally falls under that. I'm trying to work my head around the idea and decide whether this is a good thing, a bad thing or simply a very pragmatic thing. Here on the MS Coast, there remain properties untouched since K and it may ultimately require the application of eminent domain to do anything about them at all. Anyone know anything more about this Texas law that seems to be very "storm specific?" Or was I just dreaming it all, since I have seen no other ref or discussion.
FLABOY, check post 507.
565. Vero1
Quoting FLdewey:


That IS tropicalamanda... just a new name.
TropicalAmanda: This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin
563: Do you own your mineral rights? If you do, time to drill and live on the platform. Just like a piered house, only bigger. And profitable. Again, the barrier island needs a barrier island. Why aren't we encapsulating all the organic debris (wood, plastic, glass, odd metal, concrete and asphalt chunks) in concrete, and sinking it offshore rather than filling a pit inland with it? Can anyone say, hurricane barrier?
Those are radical ideas, Tejano. But I like them.........
Quoting Vero1:
TropicalAmanda: This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin


It's just a punk kid... the amanda alias was banned so they moved to the next name and then the next... real easy to spot because every day there is a mysterious new person asking about tropicalamanda. They get wiped every few days and have to rebook a new name. This blog needs better security. ;-)
I found this response to a website regarding the lone house:

Trina Rodriguez on September 17, 2008
This is my moms house. She left the house Friday morning around 3:30 with her two dogs in her arms and her husband Warren putting the last board on the front doors she kissed the house and said I will see you soon. It’s the grace of god that the house is still there. It’s not because of the builder because it took two builders and my mom and her husband to make that house what it was. I think that someone is watching over my family. My mom is a cancer survivor and so is her Warren, all they want is to live at the beach. All my mom talked about was sitting on the deck and watching the waves in the gulf.


Source: Link

I had the thought that it was just someone's really good luck or guardian angel or something along those lines - things we can't prove...
Quoting HappyHistorian:
I need help determining height of IKE surge in Bacliff, Texas. I own a house on shoreline that was surveyed in 2004 at 16' above MSL to the top of the floor. Although the front and back walls are gone due to debris carry through, in the back bathroom and utility closets (where I hope wave action was somewhat mitigated) the waterline is at consistent 13". This would tell me that a reasonable estimate of that surge was 17'1". Is this a reasonable estimate? When my father sighted and built house in 1951 the elevation was 20'5" and has subsided to 16'. Carla in 1961 did not top this bank.

Watermarks don't lie in the situation I see you describing. But, anything needs a margin of error....Even the survey. I didn't follow the 20'5" reference subsiding to 16'???
And if I lived on it, I'd put up a windmill. Certainly the houses exhibited at MOMA in NYC are stranger. If they can build houses made out of 100% recycled material, why the heck not build a pier and beach out of it? Anyone submitted all this to that show on Channel 8 yet, the house rebuilder people? I think they could build a pier/beach in about a week, right? At this point corporate sponsorship wouldn't be denied. Sears Piers, Cokes Oaks, etc... I hate to see these ideas lost a the bottom of a beer can! LOL! What is the outlook for the week? I've got to run to a meeting at 10:30 pm!
Pottery, I copied that third blog name from my post below. We went thru this with last year with Androol or something like that, didn't we. Admin had to bannish about six names before he finally quit lousing up the blog. It gets old after a while.


552. flaboyinga 2:53 AM GMT on September 18, 2008

Quoting pottery:
Seems to me that Amanda=Uwalkthemall=CapDan.=HDtivo4pres
Looks to me they are trying to set you up, StormW.



Watch your back Storm !! (Also topsides, keel, both beams, and focsle.
Quoting ArmyMan:


Houston is NOT up and running. There are long lines everywhere. What grocery stores have power everyone is flocking to. Many residents of the city won't have power until the first week of Oct. Most schools are without power. If this is up and running then I'm the king of England.


Chill out dude!!! Guess what im in the same area.. I did not say NO where in my statement HOUSTON was up... DUH!!! I said houston needed to come before the smaller cities..Go to the eye DR
pvbeachbum, the house is shown in the before and after images in Dr. M's blog above.
Evening everyone.
I have updated my Blog

The CMC 00Z has had these three systems for 3 runs now

1 Starting in the Caribbean

1 off the East Coast

1 coming in from the Atlantic
Quoting flaboyinga:
Pottery, I copied that third blog name from my post below. We went thru this with last year with Androol or something like that, didn't we. Admin had to bannish about six names before he finally quit lousing up the blog. It gets old after a while.


552. flaboyinga 2:53 AM GMT on September 18, 2008

Quoting pottery:
Seems to me that Amanda=Uwalkthemall=CapDan.=HDtivo4pres
Looks to me they are trying to set you up, StormW.



Watch your back Storm !! (Also topsides, keel, both beams, and focsle.


So, in reference to post #555 - are you saying you're in for $150?
I agree Flaboy. Its boring. But when I see it happening I call it. Let them go and play somewhere else.


looks like a typhoon again.. (close to mainland Japan)
The contractor and architect that built that one standing house should have a picture of it on their business cards. Unbelievable!
Quoting CaptnDan142:


So, in reference to post #555 - are you saying you're in for $150?


Man(?), you do like to stir it up. I was commenting on there being more blog names cast about than I had been aware of. By the way, I would not bet you that the sun is still out there right now. I depend on Blessings to help me, not luck. So I don't bet. (It's been working great so far.)
583. 7544
hi something trying to get going north of pr ?
Quoting pottery:
pvbeachbum, the house is shown in the before and after images in Dr. M's blog above.
I am sorry but I do not see the house in the before picture above...
Thanks Stormw! All the trofs moving and high's shifting etc was giving me a headache during Ike. By the way,I shudder to think if something like Ike hit our area (I am from Largo). After the images from Ike I am having second thoughts about staying, although my house is fairly secure at 40' above sea level. Will look for your comments tomorrow.
Quoting flaboyinga:


Man(?), you do like to stir it up. I was commenting on there being more blog names cast about than I had been aware of. By the way, I would not bet you that the sun is still out there right now. I depend on Blessings to help me, not luck. So I don't bet. (It's been working great so far.)


As I recall, I actually said nothing to anyone that would start this. One person made a false accusation, and another picked it up and ran with it. I would merely like to clear the air, and at the same time help out a very worthy charity.

So don't call it a bet. Call it a challenge. You two made the statements - now back them up.

And by the way, the sun set here probably 18-20 minutes before it did there.
584. hunkerdown

before is in the top half of the image
Quoting lopaka001:
Not sure if anyone posted this link but some very sad shots of before and after.
Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons - Bolivar Peninsula, TX

...also got this disturbing message today from a friend did anyone in Texas hear about this or know if any of it is true?


I did hear something to the fact of about 40-50 bodies but near Bolivar
Watching a great show on right now.. its called "Cities of the Underground" tonights show is on NOLA and the Flood protection systems.
Pvbeachbum. Is that not the house, with a darker roof, different gable ends ? Your post previously suggests from the owner, that substantial renovation was done. If you look at the street layout, you will find the house had a dark roof before. The land topography is the same. The location is the same ( but the sea is closer of course )
Quoting will40:
584. hunkerdown

before is in the top half of the image
I know that, but I do not see a house with a two level dark gray roof in the top picture that matches the lone house in the bottom/after picture.
Hi Pottery -

I did see the house in Dr. Master's images - I just thought it interesting that someone on a differnt website claims that it is her mother's house... and that it is rather amzing that it is still standing whether it be luck or guardian angels or something else we don't understand...
OK, Storm. Keep safe.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


looks like a typhoon again.. (close to mainland Japan)


SSD mentions an eye as well:

WWPN20 KNES 180319
A. 15W (SINLAKU)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 30.1N
D. 129.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...VISIBLE DT=3.5 BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH 1/3 DEGREE EMBEDDED
DISTANCE. IR DT=4.0 BASED ON DG EYE WITH OW RING. MET=3.5. PT=4.0.
Sorry Pvbeach.
I should have addressed my post to Hunkerdown. My mistake.

Do you see it, Hunkerdown ??
598. JRRP
Interesting
The mother of a co-worker of mine is from the Bolivar Peninsula originally, and so he is familiar with the area. He said that for a coastal area, the Bolivar Peninsula is rather poor, and many of the buildings were older. This got me to thinking, so I pulled up some data from the 2000 Census.

Gilchrist is not an incorporated place, so I gathered data from Census Tract 7239 of Galveston County, which encompasses the Bolivar Peninsula.

Median Household Income (1999 dollars)
Tract 7239: $34,235
Texas: $39,927
USA: $41,994

Per Capita Income (1999 dollars)
Tract 7239: $26,137
Texas: $19,617
USA: $21,587

Percent Population in Poverty:
Tract 7239: 11.7%
Texas: 12.0%
USA: 9.2%

OK, well, this wasn't so conclusive. It appears rather average by Texas standards. However I did find this:

The median year of construction of residences was between 1970 and 1979 (and looking at the numbers, it would be in the first half of that decade). So half the residences were about 35 years old or older.

The first Flood Insurance Rate Maps for this area were published April 8, 1971. So, about half the residences were built before the National Flood Insurance Program was created, which started assessing flood risks. The effects of wave action weren't added to the FIRMs until 1983.

So, it's safe to conclude that a majority of houses on the Bolivar Peninsula were constructed before building codes and ordinances related to the NFIP were implemented, particularly with regard to wave action. In other words, most homes were too old to have been required to be "high up enough" or "strong enough" which is likely the main reason they're now gone.

If anyone rebuilds there, they should find out who built the water tower.
593. hunkerdown

if you are talking about the red roof one you dont see it later cuz the surge got it
Quoting CaptnDan142:


As I recall, I actually said nothing to anyone that would start this. One person made a false accusation, and another picked it up and ran with it. I would merely like to clear the air, and at the same time help out a very worthy charity.

So don't call it a bet. Call it a challenge. You two made the statements - now back them up.

And by the way, the sun set here probably 18-20 minutes before it did there.


Mostly what I was trying to do was stick a pin in and see if it would die down. And I don't think I made a statement about anyone except the person from last year. When I noticed just now that I didn't have my location on my blog profile, I put it on there cause someone could make the same assumption about me. Hopefully it won't come to that. By the way, I probably wouldn't have paid any attention but it was implied that someone was going after StormW, and after last summer, I'm sensitive about that. Have a good night.
maybe the houses left standing were built by this guy..some of his homes were built on the Bolivar Peninsula...he may have been the person interviewed by TWC either Thursday or Friday. I am going to try and find the video..

Link
Quoting pottery:
Pvbeachbum. Is that not the house, with a darker roof, different gable ends ? Your post previously suggests from the owner, that substantial renovation was done. If you look at the street layout, you will find the house had a dark roof before. The land topography is the same. The location is the same ( but the sea is closer of course )


Pottery -

I think the person in the beginning of the article is not talking about the same house - they may be confused. The woman at the bottom of the screen in the comment section who says it is her mother's house does not say anything about remodeling it - only that it took two builders and her mother and her husband to work on it.
Quoting presslord:
Ladies and gentlemen...boys and girls...we are at about $7700....gonna do a lot of good with this project...Congratulations and thanks!!!!!!

I'm going to sleep...in fact, I may already be asleep...it's hard to tell....

www.portlight.org

That is AMAZING.. this blog is AMAZING.. When I first came to this blog a few years ago it was because I needed to know what happening with the STORM at the time. Now I know that the long lasting effects of the STORM. And I can feel like I am part of the recovery after the STORM. It has changed my outlook of following a STORM. From BLOB to INVEST to TD, or maybe right to TS. To Hurricane to landfall and to the AFTERMATH.. If you just watch mainstream news you just get HYPE. Here you get the FACTS even if you don't want to hear them. I hope I am never ever in that cone again, but living on the gulf coast of FL that probably won't happen..

But Press, Pat, and all the rest Thanks for caring so much. It makes me want to be a better person.
Quoting will40:
593. hunkerdown

if you are talking about the red roof one you dont see it later cuz the surge got it
No, I am talking about the house that is left in the bottom picture...I do not see it in the before/top picture.
Quoting plylox:
... Mandatory evacuations were too late!! Look at Corpus Christi they called mandatory evacuations when IKE was days away. ...


I grew up outside of Corpus Christi and my brother-in-law currently works in CC. I agree that CC did the right thing by closing schools and evacuating early; however, it should be noted that the actual NWS projected path had Ike aimed at CC for several days. I used stormpulse to watch the projected path from Tuesday until landfall. Starting Tuesday, the projected path had Ike aimed directly at CC. Initially, the advisories had Ike almost making landfall at CC before it veered north up the coast. And, it the NWS discussion at that time, it was stated that many models showed Ike making landfall before turning north (and that is a true statement, I was watching the models too). CC waited until Wednesday morning to make the call to evacuate their special needs folks. It was about that time that the models and the NWS advisories started shifting the storm north. Probably the earliest Houston and Galveston could have called for mandatory evacuations, based on the path projected by the NWS, was Wednesday night.

On Wednesday night, I read a post on this blog stating that reverse 911 calls were going out in the Texas City area (I believe) telling them to "Hunker down and take it." I checked the City of Houston Emergency website and found a statement there that Houston would make the evacuation call at 7:30 Thursday morning.

There was a dramatic shift north in the projected landfall from Tuesday to Thursday morning. This had many in East Texas scrambling. Emergency planning sessions were not fully underway until Thursday when the first shelters were open and special needs folks pulled from places like Beaumont.

This short timeframe may be one reason why the only real choice for Houston may have been to shelter in place. If they had waited for Galveston to evacuate and then put their people on the road, it is likely that many would have been caught in traffic again. And, I am damned proud of Houston. They did hunker down and take it.

I cannot and will not speak as to what went on in Galveston because I do not know; however, the time frame was short for many cities and communities which lie north of Matagorda Bay were land fall had been projected.
Pvbeach, I just assumed that 2 builders and some other people working, would mean some pretty substantial work was going on.
606. hunkerdown

try zooming on it . But i may be seeing sumffin that isnt there with these tired eyes lol
Quoting pottery:
Pvbeach, I just assumed that 2 builders and some other people working, would mean some pretty substantial work was going on.


Good point Pottery - it is not really clear from the website or the post from the daughter.

I am curious as to the time difference between the Google Earth before pic and the post-IKE pic - how many years in between?
{{will}}..did you had stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?♥..lol..good to see you back on the blogs..BTW do you ever check your email?
Quoting flaboyinga:

By the way, I probably wouldn't have paid any attention but it was implied that someone was going after StormW, and after last summer, I'm sensitive about that. Have a good night.


I don't really remember last summer - but I sure do remember more recent events. Jealousy is a terrible thing. Sad to see a wanna-be who is willing to stoop so low as to try to discredit somebody like StormW in some kind of hope of advancing themselves.

To be honest, I really have no idea how I got implicated in that list in the first place. I have my suspicions, but without knowing for sure I'm not going to go making accusations I can't back up.

Have a good evening - Stay Safe.
I guess since it is SO SLOW here, it might be a better time to ask.. got my pic approved.. now how do I make it my pic on the blog?
Hiya Ally sorry i had to turn da mutt out lol. And no i hardly ever check it
610. pvbeachbum

Can be a long time between updates. When I first got google, of course I googled my house. The lot to my left had trees in google. There were houses there when I googled it. That would make the pic 'Pre-Ivan since the townhouses built on that lot were built after Ivan. They updated a few months ago to show the townhouses. Give you an idea of how out of date google earth can be
616. JRRP
look near PR
Link
I guess this is one of those times when only a few can access/post to the blog. Since HOUSE is gone (which I question that decision) I will cut out.. but if anyone wants to WU mail me with how to make my pic the avator for the blog.. thanks
613. RMM34667

sorry it been so long since i did it i dont even remember now
CaptnDan, maybe I need to back-peddle here, and also apologies to you.
I may have included you in a list there in error. Remind me though, was it you who had exposed Amanda by seeking her avatar and bringing her/him down ?
Or am I grossly mistaken. If so, more apologies.

If not, I found that was really strange........
Quoting RMM34667:
I guess since it is SO SLOW here, it might be a better time to ask.. got my pic approved.. now how do I make it my pic on the blog?


You have to set it as your primary portrait in order for it to show up as your avatar; you will have to modify the properties (go to your photos, using the drop-down list at the top of the screen, then find the picture (must be a portrait) and modify the settings by checking the "Primary Portrait for Bio" checkbox near the bottom of the form; it will also need to be reapproved).
I am getting tiered of geraldeo from FOX NEWS acting all macho so...me and my bud down in NJ sent him a little email at the same time.

to: Atlarge@foxnews.com

Hey G.

I am in Rochester NY, and my buddy is in New Jersey, both of us are wondering one thing, does CNN helicopter pilots "have-a-set" to fly into the "no-fly-zone" and video tape what the real new may be, what is it, this "mayor" doesn't want us to see....maybe 1500 body's in trees that is said to have been seen?

hey take two helicopters out, record each other, and film as you go...show us what they are hiding, heck the worst thing that could happen is they could try to shot one of them down...which would be news also..

I serious doubt your pilots will do this, maybe they would if you guys would let them have their "sets" back for a while.

thanks anyways

ex-veteran with a set
houston.
Earlier someone asked about steering currents. Here's a link to a useful site. Link N. Atlantic Winds

Evening Mrs :)
shot one of them down...which would be news also..

ROFLMAO!! (Sounds right up Geraldo's alley) :)) :))
Evenin Mr :) ....Orca :))
Quoting flaboyinga:
Earlier someone asked about steering currents. Here's a link to a useful site. LinkN. Atlantic Winds



Oops !
Quoting RMM34667:
I guess since it is SO SLOW here, it might be a better time to ask.. got my pic approved.. now how do I make it my pic on the blog?


Hi, just got on, saw your question. Had to re-figure it out.

Firstly, when you uploaded it, did you do it under "upload a photo" or "upload a portrait"? If you did it in "upload a photo" (like I did the first time), you'll have to redo it under the portrait one. Under the place where you browse for the picture file, you check the box "Status - Primary Portrait for Bio".

If I'm not mistaken, that's it. Once it's approved, it's your avatar. I don't remember having to do anything else.
i know 12z cmc is old but it develops 2 tropical systems:
1 in the boc(laura)
2 off africa(develops first)kyle?
Quoting BajaALemt:
Evenin Mr :) ....Orca :))


Still looking for a comeback are you :)
Someone posted one the other day.. you missed it :)
You there Dan?
629. Orcasystems

Ohhhh fiiiiiiiiine!! Rub it in!!
Quoting btwntx08:
i know 12z cmc is old but it develops 2 tropical systems:
1 in the boc(laura)
2 off africa(develops first)kyle?


The longer range CMC 00Z has three

1 Starting in the Caribbean

1 off the East Coast

1 coming in from the Atlantic
Quoting flaboyinga:
Earlier someone asked about steering currents. Here's a link to a useful site. LinkN. Atlantic Winds



This info updates itself. If you use the toolbar at the top you can see the values for several different altitudes or layers in the atmosphere. Date and times at the bottom.
Quoting BajaALemt:
629. Orcasystems

Ohhhh fiiiiiiiiine!! Rub it in!!



Ummmmm ahhhhh oh oh..
Where did I put that Halo polish..
"Chicken Little" wants to develop EVERYTHING :p
Quoting BajaALemt:
"Chicken Little" wants to develop EVERYTHING :p


Its been calling for those three for 3 runs now.. and you have to remember, its been the best early detection model so far this year.
Quoting pottery:
CaptnDan, maybe I need to back-peddle here, and also apologies to you.
I may have included you in a list there in error. Remind me though, was it you who had exposed Amanda by seeking her avatar and bringing her/him down ?
Or am I grossly mistaken. If so, more apologies.

If not, I found that was really strange........


Nope - I wasn't the one who found that. All I did was the same as I had with a few of the others - I pointed out and questioned some of the inconsistencies in 'her' story and persona. I can't remember who it was that posted the link to the avatar pic.

Kinda funny really - I was chastised via WUMail for 'picking on that sweet kid'. LOL
I love all-in-one links.... Here's a nice one for shear, convergence, divergence, vorticity, ETC... (With brief explanations about them)

Link
Sorry for being a ding-bat. Tried to follow all your instructions.. waiting approval again. But FYI.. I LOVE this blog and read don't post much but read as much as I can.

And hey it is so COOL to be so ahead of the news. My co-worker can't figure out why I know what happening before they hear about it on the news!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been calling for those three for 3 runs now.. and you have to remember, its been the best early detection model so far this year.

I guess the break is gonna end soon.
SO COOL.. IT worked!
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Nope - I wasn't the one who found that. All I did was the same as I had with a few of the others - I pointed out and questioned some of the inconsistencies in 'her' story and persona. I can't remember who it was that posted the link to the avatar pic.

Kinda funny really - I was chastised via WUMail for 'picking on that sweet kid'. LOL


I don't remember who got the picture part of it.. but I have to give the Mishy credit for being the first to smell a rat.. she was onto it via email to me on the first night.
641. RMM34667

Yup you did good lol
Quoting pottery:
You there Dan?


Yup. :-)
OK Dan.
I am Sorry.
Dont go picking on "sweet kids" in future. LOL
Quoting flaboyinga:

I guess the break is gonna end soon.


Its still 5-7 days away.... but at one point.. it has all three active at the same time.

Link
I dont even think it was a 16 year old boy for the same reasons I was skeptical of the 16 year old girl.

1) What 16 year olds hang out in a blog until 2...3 am?

2) Vocabulary...not very 16 year oldish

Personally, I think this was an adult MALE
Quoting will40:
641. RMM34667

Yup you did good lol


Its my POGO mini. I hate pictures.. but Love WU and POGO.. thanks everyone for taking the time to respond!
Quoting RMM34667:
SO COOL.. IT worked!


The resemblence is stunning.
Of course I don't really look like a fire station either.lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't remember who got the picture part of it.. but I have to give the Mishy credit for being the first to smell a rat.. she was onto it via email to me on the first night.


That was one wild and crazy night! About the weirdest situation I've ever seen on this blog.

I missed the chinacohen thing. I came in right after the explosion went off, and, since half the blog posts were missing to bans, I couldn't tell what in tarnation happened.

Whoever did the picture thing should be remembered. If anyone can remember the date, I'll slog through the comments and find it.
BajaALemt

He said hin nik was txhurricane or sumffin close to that
Quoting BajaALemt:
I dont even think it was a 16 year old boy for the same reasons I was skeptical of the 16 year old girl.

1) What 16 year olds hang out in a blog until 2...3 am?

2) Vocabulary...not very 16 year oldish

Personally, I think this was an adult MALE


It was a known person... male, older
Can't remember the nick.. will have to check emails.
621. houston144

The airspace over Galveston is not within the jurisdiction of the Mayor. The "no-fly zone" is established by the FAA.

I doubt they would shoot them down, though Geraldo would eat that up for the story. But you can count on one thing for sure - when they landed, the pilot of the helicopter would be relieved of his license before the rotors stopped spinning down.

By the way - did anybody realize that the Mayor of Galveston is actually a part-time, unpaid position? Found that in a newspaper article. The City Manager usually runs the city, she is only in power now because of the emergency powers act.
Someone the other night was saying that the 'offender' said he was 16. I say..B.S.!!!
Quoting flaboyinga:


The resemblence is stunning.
Of course I don't really look like a fire station either.lol


Actually if I was ten years younger, and maybe a few pounds lighter. it would be a pretty good resemblence.. LOL but who really knows.. this is the internet afterall.
Quoting RMM34667:


Its my POGO mini. I hate pictures.. but Love WU and POGO.. thanks everyone for taking the time to respond!


:) Great work!
The wave in the Caribbean Islands is looking good now.
Anyone else watching it ??
Quoting pottery:
The wave in the Caribbean Islands is looking good now.
Anyone else watching it ??


Yup, have it in the sat pic on the blog also
659. JRRP
5 TC ???
Link
CaptnDan142

they showed a video yesterday of a meeting where one of the council members got mad and walked out. She also stated that she didnt ask for the job. Go figure
Quoting will40:
BajaALemt

He said hin nik was txhurricane or sumffin close to that

Baha, it's probably Androol trying to start up again. He's had a year to polish his "skills".
Quoting flaboyinga:


The resemblence is stunning.
Of course I don't really look like a fire station either.lol


At least I didn't pick a stock pic and pass it off as me!! AMANDA.. probably CHINA.. LOL
18z gfs shows a t.s forming below 10n and goes north looks like a fish
LOL fla
Quoting RMM34667:


At least I didn't pick a stock pic and pass it off as me!! AMANDA.. probably CHINA.. LOL


Good point.
Quoting pottery:
OK Dan.
I am Sorry.
Dont go picking on "sweet kids" in future. LOL


LOL

It's all good. I won't pick on any 'actual' sweet kids or damsels in distress... ;-)

667. IMA
Hey, RMM!! That's a Pogo pic! LOL
For the record, I don't resemble a moth.
Quoting RMM34667:


At least I didn't pick a stock pic and pass it off as me!! AMANDA.. probably CHINA.. LOL


Mine isn't a "stock " photo either. It took me a couple of years of blood, sweat, and strange words to get it built.lol
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #79
12:00 PM JST September 18 2008
==========================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON IN EAST CHINA SEAS

At 03:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku (980 hPa) located near 30.1N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 9 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM east from the center
90 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 32.5N 133.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 35.0N 139.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
69 HRS: 38.6N 148.2E - (EXTRATROPICAL)

NOTE FROM JTWC:
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS PER RECENT AIRCRAFT RECONAISSANCE DATA.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


LOL

It's all good. I won't pick on any 'actual' sweet kids or damsels in distress... ;-)



Want to borrow some of my halo polish.. found a place on the Internet where I can get it in 45 Gallon drums.. between Mrs/BeachFoxx/Mishy and the rest of them.. you'll need it.
668. LeopardMoth

lolololol
Quoting IMA:
Hey, RMM!! That's a Pogo pic! LOL


I have TWO addictions.. this blog and POGO.
I resemble a LightHouse lmao
Quoting LeopardMoth:
For the record, I don't resemble a moth.


That's good to know !
Quoting JRRP:
5 TC ???
Link

wow!
kyle hitting nc,laura hitting haiti again
marco east of antilles,nana east of marco maj hurricane,omar east of nana cat 1 hurricane and below 10n?
i posted some photos of ike damage on wunderphotos V.I.P.gallery
Quoting flaboyinga:


Mine isn't a "stock " photo either. It took me a couple of years of blood, sweat, and strange words to get it built.lol


And by using that as your photo it shows your dedication.. But I have over 8 million tokens on pogo.. that show my addication..
Quoting RMM34667:


I have TWO addictions.. this blog and POGO.


I don't even have time for my WU addiction!
680. IMA
...and RMM, know how I know that? I'm in there right now, playing for a badge. lol Made myself take some play time since I haven't in so long. lol Working on Poppit badge -- Have to stop in a minute, once hubby gets the bed made. I used to be worse about Pogo but ever since I started the dog rescue gig, and when it's hurricane season, I don't ever get in there except right before bed time. lol
My lights on but there aint nobody home lol
I'm out. Its cooming doown boookets here.
Trinidad is wet tonight.
683. IMA
674. will40 Shoot, I used to be long and thin! Now I'm just long, not as thin lol

Quoting RMM34667:


I have TWO addictions.. this blog and POGO.


I give.. whats a pogo?
Quoting will40:
I resemble a LightHouse lmao


*engage imagination* BOOM! *disengage imagination*
pottery~ Tbat blob has some just east of south winds south of it & quikscat was a miss.
687. JRRP
Quoting btwntx08:
18z gfs shows a t.s forming below 10n and goes north looks like a fish

GFS 00 UTC
Link
Most Texas cities have Council manager form of government. Council hires manager who hires/fires runs the city, mayor is chair of council. Mayor gets emergency powers under state law I believe.
683. IMA

ah ha i know that feeling :-)
Quoting RMM34667:


And by using that as your photo it shows your dedication.. But I have over 8 million tokens on pogo.. that show my addication..


Let's just call that dedication too. Like all of us being on the blog at all hours of the day and night.lol
Quoting pottery:
I'm out. Its cooming doown boookets here.
Trinidad is wet tonight.


Stay dry... been trying to see a loop of the Caribbean, but having Java problems. :(
Quoting pottery:
I'm out. Its cooming doown boookets here.
Trinidad is wet tonight.


G'nite Pottery - try to keep dry.
Quoting IMA:
674. will40 Shoot, I used to be long and thin! Now I'm just long, not as thin lol


I am vertically challenged for my weight :)
685. LeopardMoth

A bad one huh lol?
Quoting JRRP:

GFS 00 UTC
Link

saw yours already look at post # 676
693. Orcasystems

if i was an inch shorter i wud be round :-)
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee
Quoting Orcasystems:



I give.. whats a pogo?


That is where you can play ANYTHING online.. poker, scrabble, MONOPOLY, you name it - with people all over the world.. if you want to try it let me know. I have dozen of free passes to give away...
Quoting flaboyinga:


Let's just call that dedication too. Like all of us being on the blog at all hours of the day and night.lol


Right, LOL! I'll feel better tomorrow when I'm teaching half asleep! :-D
Quoting Orcasystems:


Want to borrow some of my halo polish.. found a place on the Internet where I can get it in 45 Gallon drums.. between Mrs/BeachFoxx/Mishy and the rest of them.. you'll need it.


Does it come with a straightening tool too? Mine seems to be a bit bent out of shape...
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee
702. IMA
Rmm -- my profile in Pogo lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am vertically challenged for my weight :)


LOL! I used to be just vertically challenged...
697. 2xRitaEvacuee

Glad you made it through ok. At least the power is a blessing
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Does it come with a straightening tool too? Mine seems to be a bit bent out of shape...


I just lower it over the horns every now and then.. helps to keep it round :)
700. CaptnDan142

Dan? This is WHY he polishes it....the glare blinds one to the dents :P :P :P
Quoting will40:
685. LeopardMoth

A bad one huh lol?


Yeah... mental pic didn't quite make it. LOL
Quoting IMA:
Rmm -- my profile in Pogo lol


Ahhh so POGO is an addiction :)
*bats eyelashes*
Quoting JRRP:
5 TC ???
Link

I'll see you link and raise you one.
Link
Quoting BajaALemt:
700. CaptnDan142

Dan? This is WHY he polishes it....the glare blinds one to the dents :P :P :P

Your getting quicker.. you will have a come back soon :)
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee
Quoting 2xRitaEvacuee:
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee


Good to see you're alright! :)
715. IMA
669. flaboyinga O.K., I want to know about the "strange words" it took to get the pic. I only have about 3 minutes before I have to shut down for bed so if I don't get it tonight you have to remember to tell me tomorrow. lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just lower it over the horns every now and then.. helps to keep it round :)


ROFL!!!
10 pm.. time for bed.. see you all in the morning :)

718. IMA
2xRita, so sorry for what you're dealing with, glad to know you're o.k.!
712. Orcasystems

Yes, I'm conjuring as we speak :P
I'm so glad I logged on tonight, ya'll people are cracking me up.
Quoting Orcasystems:



I give.. whats a pogo?


Quoting RMM34667:


That is where you can play ANYTHING online.. poker, scrabble, MONOPOLY, you name it - with people all over the world.. if you want to try it let me know. I have dozen of free passes to give away...


By all accounts, it's about 1.43% less addictive than crack.

:-)
Quoting Orcasystems:
10 pm.. time for bed.. see you all in the morning :)



G'nite, Orca!
Hi everyone. I live in Galveston County. I have power but no cable or internet, it's tricky doing everything from a cell phone. Many traffic lights are still out as is power in many places in the surrounding areas. It's amazing how dark it is at night! Helicopters fly over all day. The generators at Wal-Mart failed so there are no cold foods. Target had water so they're closed plus the National Guard set up shop in that parking lot. I spend my week off of work helping to clean up the waterlogged homes of friends. But gas lines are hours long so you can't drive too much.

To all of the wishcasters on here, you're friggin retarded. This is no way to live.Just wanted to give you guys an update, hope to post more when I have real internet.

And to those of you donating money or volunteering, thanks so much. It really means a lot.

-- 2xRita (& Ike!) Evacuee
I have a crackberry.. its even worse then crack.
Ok, I am gone for the night.. chat later :)
720. OceanMoan

we are trying. we may get banned but we trying lol
Quoting IMA:
Rmm -- my profile in Pogo lol


Not sure how you got to that page. but my pogo screen name is HPPY2BLVNLFE.. got you on my friends list now. add mine
724. Orcasystems

Ohhhhhhh...a crackberry? I'll leave THAT alone *smirks*
Quoting LeopardMoth:


Right, LOL! I'll feel better tomorrow when I'm teaching half asleep! :-D


I guess you'll need a java IV. The rush is on. (My ice tea sure is strong tonight.)
Okay, I've got to go to bed before I look at my clock and it's 1:00am.

Good night, everybody!
727. BajaALemt

lol good thinking
730. will40

ROFL Will..I sent it to him in an email :)) :)) :))
732. IMA
Gotta run, getting the evil eye, and can barely keep mine open! lol Good night, y'all! :)
731. BajaALemt

omg rolling here
Nite Moth and IMA
Quoting flaboyinga:


I guess you'll need a java IV. The rush is on. (My ice tea sure is strong tonight.)


Oooooo, hadn't thought of that! I'll have to run out and get one in the morning! LOL

Okay, now I gotta go to bed!
Quoting btwntx08:

wow!
kyle hitting nc,laura hitting haiti again
marco east of antilles,nana east of marco maj hurricane,omar east of nana cat 1 hurricane and below 10n?


You got me good and I didn't even see it.lol
Google for Gilchrist, TX and I get first hit a properties for sale page. Anyone buying?

http://www.homes.com/Real_Estate/TX/City/GILCHRIST
There's some convection kicking up east of Peurto Rico.

Link
739. 7544
Quoting flaboyinga:

I'll see you link and raise you one.
Link


also notice it developes the big red blob thats currently north of the islands now
Quoting kerneld:
Google for Gilchrist, TX and I get first hit a properties for sale page. Anyone buying?

http://www.homes.com/Real_Estate/TX/City/GILCHRIST

As my bride said the other day"Not just no but He-- No".lol
Quoting 7544:


also notice it developes the big red blob thats currently north of the islands now

I really thought that was the winds aloft and the steering currents. Am I missing something here?
For those that didn't catch me last night, I am working on an extensive hurricane forecasting tutorial.....which will teach anyone how to make a hurricane forecast and how to understand steering current evolution......I also explain how to interpret weather maps....Anyone interested or wondering how us METs make forecasts, this is the tutorial that will give a basic rundown of that....Expect it to be completed in the next few days...
If I don't get out of this chair and away from these cookies, I'm gonna gain twenty pounds.lol

A good night to one and all.
WILL SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHAT THAT SYSTEM IS THAT IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO?? IT SEEMS AS IF IT JUST EXPLODED OUT THERE. IS THAT A TWEEK IN THE INFRARED LOOP?
Quoting wanabwetherman:
WILL SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHAT THAT SYSTEM IS THAT IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO?? IT SEEMS AS IF IT JUST EXPLODED OUT THERE. IS THAT A TWEEK IN THE INFRARED LOOP?
i was looking at that to!, maybe this halftime of hurricane season will be short =/
I just looked at Puerto Rican nexrad and it looks a lot tamer then it does on infrared.
do u know if that blob is associated with a surface low??
Since it is slow tonight, I'd like to share.
This is my mom and dad's living room in their house in Bayside Park (Bay St. Louis) MS. 3 days after Katrina. They did not leave for the storm. It is about 5 miles away from the beach and is not a flood zone.




Click here for full size image


This is my mom and dad being picked up by my uncle that finally managed to get in after 3 days of living there in that sludge.



Click here for a full size image


Even though a house can weather a storm and has stood through previous storms does not mean someone can survive in it. They spent the majority of the storm on that little carport (over where the lattice is) holding on to their three dogs.


They had no idea the surge was coming until the door burst of its hinges and they were suddenly swimming.
wow!, im really srry about your parents loss goldmoon.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Can't resist this one :) Define populate. Pensacola was the first city in America. (Okay okay, we were blown away by a hurricane and didn't come back for 150 years.) But St. Augustine is the oldest continuous city in America. Oh wait, the Pirates of Caribe don't count do they??? j/k




I didn't know anyone else out there knew this. I just learned this bit of info right before ike. The first settlers got wiped out by a hurricane. BTW, for those of you arguing against living on the coast...what about the Navy. Pensacola and other cities like it are Navy "towns". Everything around it supports the navy (basically). These people need to live too. And with the rising prices of gas, you don't expect them to live hours away do you? Besides Ike hit and flooded(rains) the midwest too, can no one live there either?
night everyone be back tmr morn to see if the "blob" is still around!
Just reading through the blog and some peeps didn't think that was the house in Doc's blog.
Here is the best view of that house IMHO!
Look for the blue drum and you will see it on the map image below.
Church Street House
Still can't believe that huge house next to him is gone and didn't damage that lone house at all..
;=O
Quoting seflagamma:
yes code, I agree,

Houma got hit bad, read doc's blog.. and because it is not a big city, no publicity...

when we got Wilma.. hours after the storm.. no publicity at all..(was not a big Miami event) . I called all my family to let them know we survived and they didn't even know we had a bad hit.. they watched TV and TWC and saw "only a Cat2" an no real damage...
HECK what was it, over 600,000 people in S FLA without power for over a week, some for 2 weeks and some for over a month..couldn't get down the roads because of falling trees?

and no national publicity at all really because the world was still watching Katrina in New Orleans recovery (same with Rita they really didn't get coverage after katrina in New Orleans)

And this does not take from the devestation of Katrina in New Orleans but the Gulf Coast of MS got a larger storm surge after Katrina and they got very little publicity.

Only when large metro areas are hit will you get the media there.

and if you don't get the media there you don't get the help.. but some of us are ok with that. LOL





I didn't know there was a hurricane to hit the states after Katrina until Gustav. Even when Ike was headed over, there was more talk about the aniversary of Katrina then how to prepare for the hurricane.
Quoting flaboyinga:


Let's just call that dedication too. Like all of us being on the blog at all hours of the day and night.lol
My husband calls it nosiness on my part, ie my being on the blog all hours, that and what in the world are you looking @ NOW!! LOL
Quoting Bones429:


After Andrew there wasn't a mass evacaution to other states or even to other parts of Florida for that matter. Most of the evacuees were shelter within South Florida. That is one of the main things Florida has been able to do, house their evacuees for the most part within the state except for some that have come up I-75 and I-95 into GA.




I always evacuate to GA. Funny thing is, they always have tornado warnings because of teh hurricane's. Sometimes I don't know what is safer, staying in pensacola or evacuating to Atlanta. BTW, that's funny - ironic, not funny - ha ha.
Quoting kerneld:
Google for Gilchrist, TX and I get first hit a properties for sale page. Anyone buying?

http://www.homes.com/Real_Estate/TX/City/GILCHRIST

Sad.. All those homes are completely gone..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #80
15:00 PM JST September 18 2008
==========================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY TWO TYPHOON IN EAST CHINA SEAS

At 15:00 PM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku (980 hPa) located near 30.5N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 13 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM east from the center
90 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 33.1N 135.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 36.0N 142.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 38.5N 149.3E - (EXTRATROPICAL)
Quoting lopaka001:
Just reading through the blog and some peeps didn't think that was the house in Doc's blog.
Here is the best view of that house IMHO!
Look for the blue drum and you will see it on the map image below.
Church Street House
Still can't believe that huge house next to him is gone and didn't damage that lone house at all..
;=O

You mean except tearing it off it's foundation and rotating it 180 Degrees? Lol.. I'm pretty sure it's facing the opposite way that it was before Ike..
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

You mean except tearing it off it's foundation and rotating it 180 Degrees? Lol.. I'm pretty sure it's facing the opposite way that it was before Ike..


Who knows hard to tell and the light pole is right next to it you would think if the house rotated it would take out that pole.
Looks like the next invest over Africa could be a Problem in the coming days
Quoting CaptnDan142:
621. houston144

The airspace over Galveston is not within the jurisdiction of the Mayor. The "no-fly zone" is established by the FAA.

I doubt they would shoot them down, though Geraldo would eat that up for the story. But you can count on one thing for sure - when they landed, the pilot of the helicopter would be relieved of his license before the rotors stopped spinning down.

By the way - did anybody realize that the Mayor of Galveston is actually a part-time, unpaid position? Found that in a newspaper article. The City Manager usually runs the city, she is only in power now because of the emergency powers act.


I watched the video of the Galveston city council meeting yesterday. She is clearly in over her head with all this. Mayor Brent Warr of Gulfport Mississippi is heading to Galveston with a convey of supplies. He is also going to try to help her and the Galveston council with the lessons he learned from Hurricane Katrina. He had only been in office two months when Katrina hit. He's done a pretty good job of navigating through all the FEMA and other Federal government red tape.

I don't know for sure, but I also think he may also been able to persuade her to call for a mandatory evacuation. He had been on the phone with her and he probably let her know what the forecasted storm surge could do based on our experiences with Katrina.

I'm hoping he'll be able to help. Our fire chief is already there helping with search and rescue.
I am new to this blog. Just made it through IKE with minimal damage unlike some of the other people in this town. Please tell me what you are seeing forming in the tropics now.
Anybody out there? Up early at work on our relief project....
You're never alone on WU, Press m'friend...
Kufkin...if you'll scroll back a bit...orca systems has a pretty good synopsis...I think the consensus is that there are a couple of possibilities for development....
Aqua! mornin!!!!
766- please modify
morning
i might be wrong but it appears that a surface low is trying to form south east of Barbados. there is a noticeable rotation at 12.5 n 57 w. pressures are low in the area but the QS missed the area this morning. i will have to wait for visible sat pics to ascertain if a low is really forming east of the windwards islands
PRESS- WU MAIL
aqua....I simply don't have enough coffee in me yet....How ah ya?
Huge convective flare up over and east of the Antilles. Shower activity has also increased with a tropical wave south of Haiti, north of South America in the Central Caribbean.

Help aquak9. I am blundering my way through this blog. First time to participate in blogs. I have noticed that all of the posts are GMT. Is this supposed to be mountain time? Kind of confusing.

Many still out of power here in Lufkin, Texas. Luckily, ours came on yesterday morning. Talk about withdrawal from Internet. Luckily, had power at work the first of the week.

I am trying to see what might be in store for us next if anything. We used to spend lots of time in Gilchrist and Crystal Beach. Such a sad thing.
extreme...mornin....Does the Antilles blob seem to have potential?
Morning gang, I hope everyone is well this morning!
Lufkin,.....go to 'setting's' at the top of screen....
see goldmans house in ruins. we have a neighbor down the way that is the way their house looks without cyclone damage. good morning world
mornin press, just dropped SJ a post, told him if him and Mrs. Press are gonna be gone tha leaves the lunitics to run the asylum (you)..lol.. you guys have truley inspired me with venture never thought i'd awed by folks in a weather blog...nice surprise..
tkieth....Thanks!!!! this is the most personally gratifying thing (aside from raising my kids) that I've ever been apart of...not sure what to think about the fact that my wife is so anxious to go spent 4 or 5 days in a tent with stormjunkie :)....

www.portlight.org
Good morning...
I came to NOLA three days after Katrina. I'm still here. what I experienced had a profound impact on me. seeing what extraordinary things can come from ordinary people life changing experience for country boy from arkansas. selflessness is contagious and I see alot of people catching it... thats a good thing...glad I could participate even in a small way...keith
Okay Press..did that. I assume that I go under one of the topics, ie Hurricane/Tropics..etc?
Gotta get ready for work now, but will check back this afternoon. Hopefully, I will get the hang of this soon!!
Here's my take on the disturbance area in the Antilles.

Currently there're 3 forecast models (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS) that are developing it and they vary on strenght and organization.

CMC: Develops it south of DR and moves it N before it hits a High to its north and it would either go W towards the Bahamas or out to sea... remains to be seen and need to watch for more consistency on this one.

GFS: Develops it and handles it like a Fay.

NOGAPS: Develops it like CMC and takes it out to sea due.

In my opinion current conditions are favorable for development in the Carib. Sea. Low shear between 5 to 10 knots, plenty of moisture and a ULL to its NW and far enough away from it enhance the formation of a High aloft and help with the outflow. Like I mention yesterday evening following a post KEEPEROFTHEGATE made. So if this disturbance area keeps getting its act together and persists then there's going to definitely be some development and forecast model persistance on this one will also play a role.
That doesn't look right, not enough room for 4 lots between the lone house and the highway. It looks to me as if it was put there, after the fact.

Quoting lopaka001:
Just reading through the blog and some peeps didn't think that was the house in Doc's blog.
Here is the best view of that house IMHO!
Look for the blue drum and you will see it on the map image below.
Church Street House
Still can't believe that huge house next to him is gone and didn't damage that lone house at all..
;=O
Were the pathogens (from Galveston National Lab at UTMB) destroyed before Ike hit the coast or were they "put in proper containers": there appear to be contradictions in this story.

Link
Good Morning Indianrivguy
786. JRRP
771
impressive wave !!
unaccounted for "pathogens" is such a pleasant thought to wake up to......
Morning all!
789. Vero1
Quoting presslord:
extreme...mornin....Does the Antilles blob seem to have potential?


000
AXNT20 KNHC 181034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W S
OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS SEEN NEAR 17N22W. THE TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS ALSO INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE E OF 28W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 69W-77W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 09N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-92W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 19N17W 10N28W 11N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N79W 28N84W 27N91W 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 91W-97W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT...WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N98W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 90W. EXPECT
...THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY N THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 58W-64W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N16W 26N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W...AND AT 23N40W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 15N54W...
AND AT 12N28W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



790. Vero1
791. Vero1
792. JRRP
790
the tropic isn´t quiet, this activity promises something
Goosd Morning all, Just got back in about 3AM from Bridge City / Orange,TX. What a mess. am trying to get some pics up now. Home for 2 days and then headed back out with another crew and more supplies.
Some observers question the wisdom of building top-level biolabs on a barrier island vulnerable to severe tropical storms and intense flooding.

First let me apologize to Dr M for the nash/vort moment I am about to have....(no offense guys, but if I did not try to lighten the mood of the gravity of this some, I am not sure I could have even gotten through posting it.)

No shit!!! I have no problem and completely understand people wanting to live on our beautiful coastlines, but common sense has to kick in somewhere with stuff like this...

There are Portlight Relief updates in my blog.
Hey SJ. How're things going?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Still blissful. :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahhh so POGO is an addiction :)
Wunderground and fantasticcontraption.com are my addictions ;-) Did anything happen with getting the 12 step set up for WU or is December - May pretty much the only hope?
abnt20 knhc 181158
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 800 am edt thu sep 18 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing a large area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the lesser antilles. conditions do not appear conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days...but locally heavy rains could continue over portions of the windward and leeward islands today.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
800. Vero1
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
unusual looking IR loop of the windwards wave. i am not sure if nature is going to wait for dr masters prediction of a wk with no development
Quoting agrarianrrl:
That doesn't look right, not enough room for 4 lots between the lone house and the highway. It looks to me as if it was put there, after the fact.



It looks like a house built in the empty lot on Chrch St.
Morning Cot and CT, hope y'all are well.
804. IKE
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


Good news...

73 days left after today and it's over.
Well, at least I managed to squeak in the last best Outlook...

Seems only a 'low' probability of that to develop considering their phrasing of the disturbance.
806. Vero1
Quoting IKE:
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


Good news...

73 days left after today and it's over.
or 98 shopping days
Good morning everyone...
Morning SJ. Finally a break from summer here across the Lowcountry.
811. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
or 98 shopping days


OMG...Christmas...

Get this tropical season over. Enough on folks.
No kidding CT, was kind of cool when I headed out this morning! Wunderful weather. How about make sure that you keep these type of conditions along the NE Texas coast as well! Oh, wait, y'all don't control the weather, just forecast it right ¿~)
Good morning everyone..
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning Cot and CT, hope y'all are well.


Rather tired, but doing well. Yourself?



MJO's coming over quicker than anticipated.

I think we may see development in a short amount of time...
"Wake me up..when November comes"..

..up and atum. Good morn,..sip,...slurp,.

...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Good Morning all

I've been watching video feed from KHOU.com and pondering the situation on Galveston Island, Crystal beach and many other places. I have a question. It appears that local goverment is unable to handle the situation.That is understandably so. So at what point does the Federal goverment step in?. I am naive in the ways that local/state/fed goverment work togather but it is becomming clear that these mom and pop communities cannot take care of their own right now?. Do these cities have to ask for help or can the feds come rolling in? I just watched video of the Galveston island Mayor and counselmen and it is obvious that they can't work togather and it ended in a fight between the adults. In my opinion this whole thing is quietly becomming as bad if not worse than the Katrina. The only reason it's not being broadcast round the clock on national news is because it's not as "sexy" as Katrina was. It saddens me because I don't know if the country is as aware of the situation because Shepard SMith and Anderson Cooper are not standing in water pleading to the camera. Isn't there something our country can do to help get the situation under control?..And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.It should be a matter of public record. The loved ones of those who passed would love some closure I'm sure!..I"m not knocking these communities because I quite frankly can't imagine anyone being able to handle the devestation of the entire area's infrastructre but they need to get help before this becomes much more serious! I"m sure this has been posted already by those who are much more knowledgable and I don't mean to sound redundant just thought I'd give my 2 cents
Ok I'll quit with the pictures for now...Good morning all.
Quoting Markx999:


It looks like a house built in the empty lot on Chrch St.


yah, thats what I thought too. Maybe the before Sat pic is older than the house.
Quoting IKE:
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


Good news...

73 days left after today and it's over.


Hey Ike!

I was watching this wave last night but theres nothing there going on but interaction between the ULL and the wave causeing convection to pop.No signs of any surface feature developing in the area.
817. aubiesgirl 8:10 AM EDT on September 18, 2008

Morning Aubies.....your so right and very well stated.....someone has to step up to the plate and take charge......this is politics at the worst.....
Quoting FLDART1:
Ok I'll quit with the pictures for now...Good morning all.


Those were good pictures... thx for those.
823. Vero1
Quoting aubiesgirl:
Good Morning all

I've been watching video feed from KHOU.com and pondering the situation on Galveston Island, Crystal beach and many other places. I have a question. It appears that local goverment is unable to handle the situation.That is understandably so. So at what point does the Federal goverment step in?. I am naive in the ways that local/state/fed goverment work togather but it is becomming clear that these mom and pop communities cannot take care of their own right now?. Do these cities have to ask for help or can the feds come rolling in? I just watched video of the Galveston island Mayor and counselmen and it is obvious that they can't work togather and it ended in a fight between the adults. In my opinion this whole thing is quietly becomming as bad if not worse than the Katrina. The only reason it's not being broadcast round the clock on national news is because it's not as "sexy" as Katrina was. It saddens me because I don't know if the country is as aware of the situation because Shepard SMith and Anderson Cooper are not standing in water pleading to the camera. Isn't there something our country can do to help get the situation under control?..And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.It should be a matter of public record. The loved ones of those who passed would love some closure I'm sure!..I"m not knocking these communities because I quite frankly can't imagine anyone being able to handle the devestation of the entire area's infrastructre but they need to get help before this becomes much more serious! I"m sure this has been posted already by those who are much more knowledgable and I don't mean to sound redundant just thought I'd give my 2 cents


Quoting: 761. seawitch1261 9:41 AM GMT on September 18, 2008
The airspace over Galveston is not within the jurisdiction of the Mayor. The "no-fly zone" is established by the FAA.

I doubt they would shoot them down, though Geraldo would eat that up for the story. But you can count on one thing for sure - when they landed, the pilot of the helicopter would be relieved of his license before the rotors stopped spinning down.

By the way - did anybody realize that the Mayor of Galveston is actually a part-time, unpaid position? Found that in a newspaper article. The City Manager usually runs the city, she is only in power now because of the emergency powers act.


I watched the video of the Galveston city council meeting yesterday. She is clearly in over her head with all this. Mayor Brent Warr of Gulfport Mississippi is heading to Galveston with a convey of supplies. He is also going to try to help her and the Galveston council with the lessons he learned from Hurricane Katrina. He had only been in office two months when Katrina hit. He's done a pretty good job of navigating through all the FEMA and other Federal government red tape.

I don't know for sure, but I also think he may also been able to persuade her to call for a mandatory evacuation. He had been on the phone with her and he probably let her know what the forecasted storm surge could do based on our experiences with Katrina.

I'm hoping he'll be able to help. Our fire chief is already there helping with search and rescue.
Aubie, great questions and points. That said, they can handle it if the right people are in place. I have personally seen it.

The simply stated, very tough answer and remedy to your post was said years ago by one of our most brilliant minds...


One of the major problems in reporting of the deaths is identification and notification of next of kin etc. Aubie help is on the way, I assure you of that. I just got back in this morning and am turning around in the next two days with an additional crew and more supplies to go back out, it will all eventually come to light...
Quoting TampaSpin:
817. aubiesgirl 8:10 AM EDT on September 18, 2008

Morning Aubies.....your so right and very well stated.....someone has to step up to the plate and take charge......this is politics at the worst.....
Too many chiefs not enough indians if you ask me. I believe I read in an earlier post a mayor from Ms was head to the island to assit the mayor. I can't imagine this situation is due to bruised egos but perhaps a lack of experience I dont think anyone is trained for this
I'm not knocking the Mayor I think she is doing the best SHE can. She definitly seems genuine and has no agenda other than tryin to get the area back in one piece but at some point she needs more help than she has. I can't imagine being in her shoes right now
Quoting FLDART1:
Ok I'll quit with the pictures for now...Good morning all.
Thank you for the pics. We need more than 10 seconds from the evening news. Has anyone heard any news from Cameron La? I have a coworker whose father and several other relative live(d) there and she is having trouble finding out much. thanks.BTW Good morning all!
Oh no.....If I hold my head just right and squint my eyes just so,looking at the SST map, I think I saw that guy at Woodstock ;>)
Quoting FLDART1:
Ok I'll quit with the pictures for now...Good morning all.
I would love to see them but photobucket is firewalled I think a lot of people upload them to thier WUphotos and then let people know so we can just click on your name and see them. Thanks for helping those that need supplies and a smile!
827. aubiesgirl 8:18 AM EDT on September 18, 2008
I'm not knocking the Mayor I think she is doing the best SHE can. She definitly seems genuine and has no agenda other than tryin to get the area back in one piece but at some point she needs more help than she has. I can't imagine being in her shoes right now


I think inexperience is a big player...people in power must ask the next up for help.....if they don't the next person up does not want to go over that persons head.....its just like chain of command any office, or work place...

Some good questions about the Galveston National Lab

Link
Quoting aubiesgirl:
I'm not knocking the Mayor I think she is doing the best SHE can. She definitly seems genuine and has no agenda other than tryin to get the area back in one piece but at some point she needs more help than she has. I can't imagine being in her shoes right now


I'm of the opinion that a competent mayor "should" know how to handle it by having a plan in place...ESPECIALLY if you are the mayor of a coastal town!

Unfortunately, the reality is that the agendas that get most elected officals into office are not that forward-looking.

Sad.
Quoting FLDART1:
One of the major problems in reporting of the deaths is identification and notification of next of kin etc. Aubie help is on the way, I assure you of that. I just got back in this morning and am turning around in the next two days with an additional crew and more supplies to go back out, it will all eventually come to light...
It's noble thing that you are doing and all those that are rushing to the area. If I didn't have 3 kids I would be first in line to help the redcross or the numerous other angencies that are there on the scene. In fact our church has a group out there right now and that same group was literally one of the first on the scene in biloxi after the dust cleared. It's an amazing group of people who got zero publicity and yet did so much for those communities. They were funded by our church and area churches the like. to put it inperspective our offering Sunday was collected for the region our little church gave 8 thousand dollars that day!. That might not sound like much but are church is not that big and that was ONE sunday's worth. The children's ministry is now collecting items to make backpacks for displaced children loaded with notebooks crayons etc. goodness at it's best.
Quoting aubiesgirl:
And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.


They need to find the bodies, identify the bodies, find the next of kin, notify the next of kin.

And putting a lid on it prevents the media from hyping things up and stressing out those who haven't heard from relatives.

I know a couple ofpeople who are searching with cadaver-sniffing dogs ... it's going to be stressful enough on them and the body-baggers wihtout having the media hounding them for details.
Quoting BeanTech:


I'm of the opinion that a competent mayor "should" know how to handle it by having a plan in place...ESPECIALLY if you are the mayor of a coastal town!

Unfortunately, the reality is that the agendas that get most elected officals into office are not that forward-looking.

Sad.
You are right to an extent but honestly who can prepare 100 percent for this? and if I"m not mistaken she's not paid it's voluntary it almost seems like she's just a figure head...It's the city managers that usually run the city
Quoting aubiesgirl:
Good Morning all

I've been watching video feed from KHOU.com and pondering the situation on Galveston Island, Crystal beach and many other places. I have a question. It appears that local goverment is unable to handle the situation.That is understandably so. So at what point does the Federal goverment step in?. I am naive in the ways that local/state/fed goverment work togather but it is becomming clear that these mom and pop communities cannot take care of their own right now?. Do these cities have to ask for help or can the feds come rolling in? I just watched video of the Galveston island Mayor and counselmen and it is obvious that they can't work togather and it ended in a fight between the adults. In my opinion this whole thing is quietly becomming as bad if not worse than the Katrina. The only reason it's not being broadcast round the clock on national news is because it's not as "sexy" as Katrina was. It saddens me because I don't know if the country is as aware of the situation because Shepard SMith and Anderson Cooper are not standing in water pleading to the camera. Isn't there something our country can do to help get the situation under control?..And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.It should be a matter of public record. The loved ones of those who passed would love some closure I'm sure!..I"m not knocking these communities because I quite frankly can't imagine anyone being able to handle the devestation of the entire area's infrastructre but they need to get help before this becomes much more serious! I"m sure this has been posted already by those who are much more knowledgable and I don't mean to sound redundant just thought I'd give my 2 cents


I'm not totally sure but I believe the federal government cannot step in unless the state asks for help.
re: FLDART1 pix

oh my, what a display and how frightening to look at them now, can you imagine having been there to see the destruction happen,

thanx for sharing.

Week 2 Outlook – Valid: Sep 23 – 29, 2008
Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.
Issued: 9/15
1. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the eastern Pacific, western Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean. The favorable
phase of the MJO increases the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Pacific, southern Mexico and parts of Central America. The enhanced
phase of the MJO is expected to result in wet conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
3. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Indonesia. The suppressed phase of the MJO is
expected to result in dry conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for above-average rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia into the western Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO is
expected to result in wet conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the South China Sea and the far western Pacific. The favorable phase of the MJO increases
the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
SEE TEXT NOTATION: Conditions are expected to begin to become more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean late
during the period but development is more likely during week 3.

jo
Quoting twifob:


They need to find the bodies, identify the bodies, find the next of kin, notify the next of kin.

And putting a lid on it prevents the media from hyping things up and stressing out those who haven't heard from relatives.

I know a couple ofpeople who are searching with cadaver-sniffing dogs ... it's going to be stressful enough on them and the body-baggers wihtout having the media hounding them for details.
I totally understand that I don't believe they should be posting names splashing pictures on the news etc...you make a good point
835. twifob 8:26 AM EDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting aubiesgirl:
And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.


They need to find the bodies, identify the bodies, find the next of kin, notify the next of kin.

And putting a lid on it prevents the media from hyping things up and stressing out those who haven't heard from relatives.

I know a couple ofpeople who are searching with cadaver-sniffing dogs ... it's going to be stressful enough on them and the body-baggers wihtout having the media hounding them for details.


Hard to do a count when you don't have something to count......there will be many that will probably never be found....this should never have happened......
Good Morning:
How nice to come on and see NOTHING in the Atlantic. Realize that is likely to change soon, but enjoy while it lasts.
Quoting FMDawg:


I'm not totally sure but I believe the federal government cannot step in unless the state asks for help.


That is correct.....county ask State......State ask National Gov......not that difficult to ask.......
Quoting aubiesgirl:
You are right to an extent but honestly who can prepare 100 percent for this? and if I"m not mistaken she's not paid it's voluntary it almost seems like she's just a figure head...It's the city managers that usually run the city


100% ? Of course not. You do the best you can.
My point is that she is mayor of a town that is highly vunerable during season. Based on what I've seen so far, she doesn't act like she has much clue at all as to what she's doing. She looks like a deer caught in the headlights on tv.

844. KBH
Quoting Chucktown:
abnt20 knhc 181158
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 800 am edt thu sep 18 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing a large area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the lesser antilles. conditions do not appear conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days...but locally heavy rains could continue over portions of the windward and leeward islands today.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Quoting Chucktown:
abnt20 knhc 181158
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 800 am edt thu sep 18 2008

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing a large area of showers and a few thunderstorms over the lesser antilles. conditions do not appear conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days...but locally heavy rains could continue over portions of the windward and leeward islands today.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

..From the ground in B'dos heavy thunderstorms started early about 4.00ish this morning, also strong gusts from NE - SE, rain looks like it will be falling .. all day!
An Easy thing to relate.

"Faith,without works, is dead".




Please Help us to Help others today.

portlight.org Link
843. BeanTech 8:33 AM EDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting aubiesgirl:
You are right to an extent but honestly who can prepare 100 percent for this? and if I"m not mistaken she's not paid it's voluntary it almost seems like she's just a figure head...It's the city managers that usually run the city


100% ? Of course not. You do the best you can.
My point is that she is mayor of a town that is highly vunerable during season. Based on what I've seen so far, she doesn't act like she has much clue at all as to what she's doing. She looks like a deer caught in the headlights on tv.


I think many would react the same......no one knows what the mayor has or has not done.....so let's give her the benefit of the doubt! Hell im not sure what i would be like either except be on my hands and knees pleading to the next higher up......what else can one do....plan in place.....who would have a plan in place for this much destruction at the local level.....there is nothing left! All the lady can do is be supportive of her people the best she could be....she hasn't the means handle a crisis of this magnitude at the local level....deer in headlights...thats ok.
Quoting FMDawg:


I'm not totally sure but I believe the federal government cannot step in unless the state asks for help.


That is correct for the most part. Due to State Rights and such, FEMA or other Federal agencies can not move in take over operations unless their assistance has been requested by "State Officals" Local governments can not request Federal assistance it must come from the state. And in some states the state can not request that assistance until the local request from the state and they are unable to provide it.

As for the Local Mayor of Galveston..I think she made her own bed and now, regretfully, she is having to sleep in it. By her refusing to issue a mandatory evacuation order until the last minute, her own statements that the storm was not going to be all that bad...these comments and others are coming back to haunt her, and the people who looked to her for guidance and may have now lost their lives.
I am guessing that tax records would show who owned the homes, though that does not help appreciably unless there was a way to insure that those persons checked in with the municipality (within a certain time frame after a disaster.)
Not sure what incentive to use to get people to do this. Maybe those who check in would have their taxes waived for 5 years. Would need to give everyone a reasonable time, since the population would be overwhelmed to say the least. But this would give you an idea as to who survived the storm.

(I know. I know - I am a mean cynic to suggest that assistance with taxes be tied to anything - just looking for a way to put this a bit higher on the priority list for folks)

840. TampaSpin 12:29 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Hard to do a count when you don't have something to count......there will be many that will probably never be found....this should never have happened......


Good morning all...
Tim, this is always going to happen... We see it everyday on the news and in this blog.
This is the hard part to word properly, I hope you see the point if I type it wrong.

The American attitude of "My god given right" to ignore the Gov at what ever level.. ie. You can't tell me to leave.. you can't tell me what I can and cannot do.

How many member on here actually said or thought "I am staying and all I need is a 12 pack and a 12 gauge".

Mandatory Evacuation called for.. we watched Police cars driving back and forth, while people stood on the seawall and watched Ike coming in.

Is it going to Happen again... yes.. every single time.
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season
Quoting TampaSpin:
843. BeanTech 8:33 AM EDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting aubiesgirl:
You are right to an extent but honestly who can prepare 100 percent for this? and if I"m not mistaken she's not paid it's voluntary it almost seems like she's just a figure head...It's the city managers that usually run the city


100% ? Of course not. You do the best you can.
My point is that she is mayor of a town that is highly vunerable during season. Based on what I've seen so far, she doesn't act like she has much clue at all as to what she's doing. She looks like a deer caught in the headlights on tv.


I think many would react the same......no one knows what the mayor has or has not done.....so let's give her the benefit of the doubt! Hell im not sure what i would be like either except be on my hands and knees pleading to the next higher up......what else can one do....plan in place.....who would have a plan in place for this much destruction at the local level.....there is nothing left! All the lady can do is be supportive of her people the best she could be....she hasn't the means handle a crisis of this magnitude at the local level....deer in headlights...thats ok.


We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.
Yes, it was a terrible disaster..no question...my point is that she does not give the impression of a leader. Compare how she looks and acts to Giuliani after 9-11.

The people of Galveston need hope more than anything right now. If i was a resident seeing her on tv, hope is not the message being conveyed on her face or through her actions.
Good morning everyone! I see the Carribean is a little messy this morning but the word is nothing is supposed to come of it, that's good news. I have a feeling things could change by next week and our lull will be over. Enjoy it while we can!
Quoting Orcasystems:
840. TampaSpin 12:29 PM GMT on September 18, 2008
Hard to do a count when you don't have something to count......there will be many that will probably never be found....this should never have happened......


Good morning all...
Tim, this is always going to happen... We see it everyday on the news and in this blog.
This is the hard part to word properly, I hope you see the point if I type it wrong.

The American attitude of "My god given right" to ignore the Gov at what ever level.. ie. You can't tell me to leave.. you can't tell me what I can and cannot do.

How many member on here actually said or thought "I am staying and all I need is a 12 pack and a 12 gauge".

Mandatory Evacuation called for.. we watched Police cars driving back and forth, while people stood on the seawall and watched Ike coming in.

Is it going to Happen again... yes.. every single time.


Bro, no you are 100% correct.....you know the sad part is i have thought about if i was put in the same situation what would i do...I would get my family out of harms way first and formost.....but, something about leaving your house that you worked so hard for is difficult....if it was water...get out ......but if it was just wind..i might stay to try to do something to keep my house intact......i don't know....
Quoting SEFL:
I came across this recently and thought it was interesting in a general sense....not related to anything specific.

"Bullshit is unavoidable whenever circumstances require someone to talk without knowing what he is talking about. Thus the production of bullshit is stimulated whenever a person's obligations or opportunities to speak about some topic exceed his knowledge of the facts that are relevant to that topic. This discrepancy is common in public life, where people are frequently impelled - whether by their own propensities or by the demands of others - to speak extensively about matters of which they are to some degree ignorant. Closely related instances arise from the widespread conviction that it is the responsibility of a citizen in a democracy to have opinions about everything, or at least everything that pertains to the conduct of his country's affairs. The lack of any significant connection between a person's opinions and his apprehension of reality will be even more severe, needless to say, for someone who believes it his responsibility, as a conscientious moral agent, to evaluate events and conditions in all parts of the world."
All BS aside I don't believe anyone is being ignorant in saying that hands down this community needs help. In fact it would be ignorant to just pretend like everything is ok. This is not like Dennis or Ivan in which the recovery can be swift and rebuild. In my humble opinion this is nearly on the same scale as Katrina. Granted the city is not underwater but it appears that the destruction is just as widespread. Thank whoever you believe in that the death toll is not as big but the overall destruction is just as grand. I am in no way stating that I could do a better job and I definitly don't have any clue about who could. I speak on a human level where I see so much suffering and my bleeding heart hopes that they are able to get their lives back.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season


I don't even know how to respond to this one.
ike hurt and the pain continues.

forget one dinner, forego one night at the movies, or the trip to wally-world and help - there are valid groups that all of us can help with any bit we can give - i am not saying any of us have anything spare right now but we all have more than those folks do.

please reach down post a note in your lunch room reprint these pix and share with your neighbors and co-workers - have a bake sale - have a garage sale - get involved and never forget we may need it next.

jo
After seeing pictures of bolivar from the air I cant believe anyone would even think of staying put during a cyclone. Hopefully the evacuaees will be accounted for soon.
856. Orcasystems 5:47 AM PDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season


I don't even know how to respond to this one.



geting too late in the year now for any more gulf land falls
GM all from the northeast,we are enjoying early fall up here,very cool mornings and a steady parade of canadian highs.
Quoting BeanTech:


We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.
Yes, it was a terrible disaster..no question...my point is that she does not give the impression of a leader. Compare how she looks and acts to Giuliani after 9-11.

The people of Galveston need hope more than anything right now. If i was a resident seeing her on tv, hope is not the message being conveyed on her face or through her actions.


Hope for what...bro..your living in a dream world...this is reality! You think she is not giving comfront on the ground to people....look at what the fine Mayor of NY had at his means......and now look at what the mayor of Galveston has at her means....wow.
BBL......
Heating up taz! NHc just updated their page 20% on the carib. wave
Quoting agrarianrrl:
Were the pathogens (from Galveston National Lab at UTMB) destroyed before Ike hit the coast or were they "put in proper containers": there appear to be contradictions in this story.

Link


According to the Sunshine Project, the lab at UT-MB Galveston ins a Level 4 facility. Following is the definition of Level 4 Biohazard:

"Biohazard Level 4: Exclusively viruses that cause severe to fatal disease in humans, and for which vaccines or other treatments are not available, such as Bolivian and Argentine hemorrhagic fevers, dengue fever, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, hantaviruses, Lassa fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and other various hemorrhagic diseases. When dealing with biological hazards at this level the use of a Hazmat suit and a self-contained oxygen supply is mandatory. The entrance and exit of a Level Four biolab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, an ultraviolet light room, and other safety precautions designed to destroy all traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed and are electronically secured to prevent both doors opening at the same time. All air and water service going to and coming from a Biosafety Level 4 lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release."

Bio-Labs in Texas are known neither for their transparency nor adherence to safety protocol. During the past year, there have been reports of safety violations in both Texas A & M and University of Texas--Austin Labs. UT-Austin fired the last employee who spoke out about lack of safety--after they hired him to help get things straight.

UTMB is not known for its openness.

If you are concerned, a good starting point is with the Sunshine Project.
Link
now understand this is rumor and hearsay. but, the talk in Texas from people in the know is there maybe 3500 plus dead in Texas from ike particularly in the no fly zone and many areas highlighted by dr m.
I wanted to give you all an update on myself and 3 co-workers planned trip to Texas for Red Cross relief help. We were informed last night 3 hrs before our departure that our help wasnt needed. According to our local Red Cross Rep, there are so many people in the area helping that excessive volunteers are hampering the situation. We are left standing there completely confused!!!Has anyone else heard anything about this as no one I have talked to can explain this to us????
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hope for what...bro..your living in a dream world...this is reality! You think she is not giving comfront on the ground to people....look at what the fine Mayor of NY had at his means......and now look at what the mayor of Galveston has at her means....wow.


No dream world here "Bro"...just stating what I'm seeing with my own eyes.

I'm entitled to voice my opinion just as you are to voice yours. No need for the defensive tone.

Like I said, we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a �Major Disaster� for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans
I think it's safe to assume they've asked for help. Asking doesn't mean it will come, or that it will come right away. If there's not a National Guard presence along and within the affected coastal areas (surely, there must be), it's my guess that it's because the Guard is spread thin, perhaps due to their deployment in Houston, as a result of the extended, extensive power outages in such a densely populated area.

FEMA, as part of DHS, has become an unweildy bureaucracy, lacking much of its former agility. Since Katrina, there is an added layer of paranoia and a sensitivity to public relations problems. I strongly suspect this has gotten us the no fly zone and the hesitance to release numbers of the missing, something I can't help but think is possible.

They, meaning the federal government, are working hard to control the situation, from a PR perspective. If they aren't releasing estimated numbers of the missing, it's because they don't want to. JMHO.

Now, to work. Y'all have a great one.
well, I am having a frickin' funky morning -- I'm reading all this sad stuff here, chaos seems to be everywhere.....nature, economics - domestic & global, lots of discordance on the planet... "what's the world coming to?" Seems like a dark night ---at least www.portlight.org came out of IKE --a lone candle in the darkness -- going out to walk my dog BBL -- named my dog HOPE...so no matter what, I'd always have hope.....good thing.
FEMA Individual Assistance Center Link
re: that our help wasnt needed

plenty of other groups, call patrap....jo
Quoting Tazmanian:
856. Orcasystems 5:47 AM PDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season


I don't even know how to respond to this one.



geting too late in the year now for any more gulf land falls


Granted, this would not be in the Gulf as it now runs.. almost Positive that Presslord would not consider the Season 100% done. But I am sure he will appreciate that its a none event in your "book"

Link
Taz.......too late in the season????? The season is a little more than halfway over.....I think your "forecast" is a little more of "wishful"!
A Federal Disaster Declaration for Numerous Counties and Parishes in Both States was declared and Signed Days Ago by the President.


All available Federal Assets and the conduits for the aid and assistance are open to State and Local Officials.

Things on this scale dont happen in a Jiffy.
It takes days,weeks to get all the pieces in place.
The first rule is to sustain those impacted the worst with S&R and if neccersaty, recovery of remains.
Ike has won a Battle ..but the War of recovery will be won by the common man and woman, with faith ,and deeds.

Unseen by the light of media,or opinions.
This is from a friend of mine in Houston I've been trying to find for 2 days....he's a perfect example of why our work is so important...he'll be a pivotal contact for us there involving needs assesment, etc.

www.portlight.org

Hurricane Ike post five days: We got power on at our home a little while
ago. About half of our city is still without power, and folks from
Galveston to Beaumont will be without power (and many of them without
homes) for a long long time. We lost a tree and a fence.

Amazingly, our cable and Internet access seems to have survived the storm
without interruption - - or it was fixed before the power came back on
here. Anyway, it is great to be able to charge your wheelchair in a place
other than a hospital hallway or a grocery store shopping cart storage
area. It
will also be nice not to go on daily excursions in search of gasoline, ice
and propane. Obviously, we followed directions and had our tank topped off
before the storm hit.

My wife could be considered a kind of survivalist, so we were well stocked
for this event. We have enough water remaining in bottles to keep us in
good stead for about four more weeks. We have enough canned food and other
non perishables to last us probably another six weeks. I have enough
batteries to keep my radio going for about four more weeks - - but lanterns
run batteries down really fast. We were just getting to the point that we
had to go to bed before dark and get up at dawn. Now, thankfully I can
resume my 7:00 AM to 1:00 AM normal schedule.

Our neighbor has a generator, but we want to avoid storing flammable
liquids, so we do not keep gasoline to run a generator. We have been
washing dishes and clothing the old fashioned way, and we have been boiling
water and cooking our food on the gas grill out back. We conserve our
batteries by
listening to the radio about 3 hours per day.

I just stopped for a second writing this message to plug in the chargers
for my wheelchair, cell phone, lanterns, radios and my electric razor. If
the power goes out again tonight, I will be ready, again. I guarantee you
I will not risk sleeping upstairs and possibly needing the elevator for a
few
days. It will take me that long to reach for a light switch instead of a
flashlight, and to close the doors and windows so that we are not air
conditioning the outside.

During the last few days, I have been working with colleagues who were
reachable by cell phone to organize recovery and relief efforts for people
with disabilities. About 3000 people with disabilities were evacuated
prior to the storm, and most of them are in an Air Force Hospital in San
Antonio.
Many of them will not have a home to return to - - ever. Actually, those
people are being well cared for at this point. The people we are most
concerned about are those young and old people with disabilities who were
instructed to "shelter in place" by public authorities, and who stayed in
their
homes to weather the storm. Assuming they followed the instructions of the
public authorities, they were prepared to survive using bottled water and
nonperishable foods for three days. Many of them who have needs for power
also were well stocked with batteries for an emergency.

Now, five days after the storm hit, most of those people have run out of
water and food and batteries. If they try to call local emergency
assistance numbers, like I did, they will get a busy signal, they will get
put on hold indefinitely, they will get a person who tells them they have
no
relevant information, or they will be given a phone number, as I was, to an
organization whose offices were destroyed by the storm. Calling FEMA will
get you on a list for some kind of assistance later on, after they process
the lists, but FEMA is unable to provide any local technical assistance
information. Many people with disabilities, and probably others, are still
in bad shape.

Interestingly, many of the people whom I have discovered need help are
people who registered well before the storm on the 211 emergency assistance
system. The system worked well for those people who lived in mandatory
evacuation zones and who needed to be evacuated. I am not aware of anyone
who
was registered who was not evacuated by one means or another. Our
metropolitan transit authority paratransit system, along with our emergency
preparedness officials, did a great job with this task. However, there are
approximately 11,000 other people on the 211 list who sheltered in place
who have
yet to be called to check on their well being, and I believe that is a
disaster in itself. They were promised help in these circumstances, and
nobody has even called to check on them.

Last night I was able to locate a volunteer who filled a 5 gallon gasoline
can to take to a woman who uses a ventilator. Her gasoline powered
generator was about to run dry. She would have expired early this morning,
if we have not found gasoline and a volunteer to deliver it to her. Red
Cross
offered no assistance to her, and neither did any other local aid agencies.

All of my colleagues at ILRU have been about similar tasks - - trying to
figure out how to help people who are in need. We are all reminded of the
3000 plus calls for help that we answered and responded to after hurricanes
Katrina and Rita.

I am currently trying to get funding to support an 800 line number and
staffing to provide assistance to those people with disabilities who are
trying to recover from this disaster. We would also like to have some
funds to be able to assist people directly, by doing things like purchasing
and
delivering gasoline to them for their generators.

Thanks for your prayers. Wish our city well, Lex


Lex Frieden
Professor of Health Informatics
Professor of Rehabilitation
University of Texas at Houston
www.shis.uth.tmc.edu
Senior Vice President, TIRR
Director, ILRU www.ilru.org
Professor of Rehabilitation
Professor of Community Medicine
Baylor College of Medicine
www.bcm.edu



Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season


Taz, have you fallen off your rocker? The season is in it's prime, the end of September and October are very dangerous in the GOM. Those fronts the jet allows to come south this time of the year are the culprits for dropping off lows that develop in the GOM. Then there's Opal, that little wench came across the Yucatan in 1995 and on Oct. 4th rocked our world.

Talk about a bold off your rocker prediction! I hope your right but I highly doubt it with the MJO coming back into the Carribean and Gulf next week.
if they put as much effort into getting people out of the barrier islands as they do about not letting anyone back on the island probably alot more people would be alive, I agree that there are alot more people not accounted for that they are letting on, if you think about it the houses are gone and so are the ones that stayed in those houses, you would not have a chance with all the debry sloshing around in the surge, sad but true,
well see what gos on in the comeing weeks
Quoting Tazmanian:
856. Orcasystems 5:47 AM PDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe in my books we may see one or two more TS but am forcasting no more hurricanes this year the jet is now seting up to be more fall the gulf is %100 done for any more land falls this hurricane season


I don't even know how to respond to this one.



geting too late in the year now for any more gulf land
falls

remember wilma 2005
Quoting usa777:
I wanted to give you all an update on myself and 3 co-workers planned trip to Texas for Red Cross relief help. We were informed last night 3 hrs before our departure that our help wasnt needed. According to our local Red Cross Rep, there are so many people in the area helping that excessive volunteers are hampering the situation. We are left standing there completely confused!!!Has anyone else heard anything about this as no one I have talked to can explain this to us????


I know from experience that disaster relief of this magnitude is essentially "Organized Chaos". While all efforts are appreciated, unexpected people showing up at the seen of a disaster can only add to the chaos. Anyone wanting to help should go through the proper channels. Making donations to the red cross on an regular basis and not just when we have a disaster is perhaps the most productive means to fund disaster relief. When thousands of people take a more reactive approach to funding disaster relief versus a proactive approach it can definately slow the process down. I would suggest that if anyone has supplies that they want to provide to Texas that you notify the Red Cross and follow their guidance. Showing up with supplies unanounced can be a hinderence to the efforts in place.
Most of the homes on Galveston, including the lower lying West end of the island, are on flat concrete slab foundations raised a foot or two above grade.

In most coastal areas of the U.S., a permit would not be issued for building a residence at ground level, 3 feet above sea level, on the coast. That pretty much describes every residential house in West Galveston. I've been through there many times and am amazed that such a thing can occur when common sense clearly says it is a storm surge area.

Most of the homes and businesses in Gilchrist and Crystal Beach were raised on pilings as required by code at the time. Some were higher than others as building codes changed. A co-worker's grandmother had her house at Crystal Beach, 4-houses in from the beach. It was built decades ago and was one of the extremely few built on a flat slab at ground level. That house is gone today and she is staying with her children in Houston and Clearlake.

We KNOW how to build hurricane resistant houses. We know from experience the problems of tidal surge. Models already tell us where future problems are waiting to happen. However, just like a traffic light in a school zone, we know one is needed but won't act on it until a child is hit by a car.

Galveston got very lucky this time. However, if they allow people to rebuild on a flat slab in West Galveston Island and go back to normal using past building practices... they just are inviting the next disaster.
the gulf dos not need any more land falls any way
Presslord.. call Surfmom, its time again ...
Link
I know folk who work on campus with the National Lab in Galveston at UTMB and it is completely undamaged with no leaks or contamination at all. USDA has already visited the site and given approval for how things were and are being handled.
Quoting leftovers:
Heating up taz! NHc just updated their page 20% on the carib. wave

actually they said its not conducive for development
Proverb for the day:
It is far better for someone to think you are a fool, then to open your mouth and prove it.

Blog update
Quoting btwntx08:

remember wilma 2005


Or Opal in 1995, there are numerous storms that form in Late Sept or Oct.....they normally are not Cat 3 or above type storms,
(I refuse to use the terms "Major oR Weak") but then Ike wasn't either and look what it did.

The fat lady ain't sung yet I'm afraid....
876. Great post, press. Your friend is invaluable for specializing the relief efforts to maximize the effects. I am sending some gas money. I'd drive a truck down there if I were closer...it's frustrating from so far away...you guys are the best for doing this. Thank you.
Quoting surfmom:
well, I am having a frickin' funky morning -- I'm reading all this sad stuff here, chaos seems to be everywhere.....nature, economics - domestic & global, lots of discordance on the planet... "what's the world coming to?" Seems like a dark night ---at least www.portlight.org came out of IKE --a lone candle in the darkness -- going out to walk my dog BBL -- named my dog HOPE...so no matter what, I'd always have hope.....good thing.
Surfmom - sad to see you feel this way. There is discord but in the long run, most survive. We have to reach out to the positive in life and try not to dwell on the negative. Sorry for the soapbox.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the gulf dos not need any more land falls any way


There are an awful lot of people would love to believe in your prediction,but the reality is,there is a lot season left.
Let's please not forget the damage to La. as well.

Watched the news last night.

Parts of Plaquemines Parish are still under water.

Heartbreaking. I worked down there for the School Board from Boothville-Venice HS to Belle Chasse.

From what I saw and understand, everything from Belle Chasse down is still under water.

They can't get it pumped out.

I used to know so many people who lived and worked down there.

First Katrina. Then Gustave. Then Ike.

These people need a break and some support as well.

Prayers are always welcomed.

Thank you.

Patrap.....my small but sincere donation is on it's way.

God Bless You.

06z gfs develops a system 4-5 days from now
Quoting aubiesgirl:
Good Morning all

I've been watching video feed from KHOU.com and pondering the situation on Galveston Island, Crystal beach and many other places. I have a question. It appears that local goverment is unable to handle the situation.That is understandably so. So at what point does the Federal goverment step in?. I am naive in the ways that local/state/fed goverment work togather but it is becomming clear that these mom and pop communities cannot take care of their own right now?. Do these cities have to ask for help or can the feds come rolling in? I just watched video of the Galveston island Mayor and counselmen and it is obvious that they can't work togather and it ended in a fight between the adults. In my opinion this whole thing is quietly becomming as bad if not worse than the Katrina. The only reason it's not being broadcast round the clock on national news is because it's not as "sexy" as Katrina was. It saddens me because I don't know if the country is as aware of the situation because Shepard SMith and Anderson Cooper are not standing in water pleading to the camera. Isn't there something our country can do to help get the situation under control?..And why is there so much secrecy surrounding deaths along the Bolivar pennisula...Khou interviewed a man who survived the storm in Crystal beach and he said he knew for a fact of the deaths there and the news anchor said authorities have pretty much railroaded them and won't give any information..why the secrecy?.It should be a matter of public record. The loved ones of those who passed would love some closure I'm sure!..I"m not knocking these communities because I quite frankly can't imagine anyone being able to handle the devestation of the entire area's infrastructre but they need to get help before this becomes much more serious! I"m sure this has been posted already by those who are much more knowledgable and I don't mean to sound redundant just thought I'd give my 2 cents


I posted about what my mayor is doing to help Mayor Thomas. Mayor Brent Warr of Gulfport is heading to Galveston with a convey of supplies. He has been in contact with her since before Ike hit, possibly urging her to order a mandatory evacuation. Our fire chief is already out there helping with search and rescue.

Mayor Warr, based on his experience with Hurricane Katrina, is going to help Mayor Thomas and the Galveston council. He had been in office only two months before Katrina struck Gulfport. He did a remarkable job. He made mistakes but on the whole, he did the right
things. I'm hoping that he and other city officials will be able to help them focus on what needs to be done now.
Quoting momma4:
Let's please not forget the damage to La. as well.


You missed Rita...
Quoting conchygirl:
Surfmom - sad to see you feel this way. There is discord but in the long run, most survive. We have to reach out to the positive in life and try not to dwell on the negative. Sorry for the soapbox.
A wonderful postive note.It appears from a grassroots effort neighbors are helping neighbors. There is nothing stronger than the human spirit in times of need. I have been touched from numerous reports of those that are suffering helping others who are suffering. The greatest thing that ever came out of Ivan for us was the neighborhood pulling togather afterwards,granted we had military support we live on base housing,but everyone pulled togather offered help in the cleanup. we all emptied our freezers cooked everything we could and fed as many that came our way. On the flip side once everything returned to normal most of us never spoke again aside from the occasional wave but it was making the best of a bad situation. This in now way compares to the giving and help I have seen on news reports from local citizens. There is nothing more touching than a selfless act
Juan in 1985 was around Halloween wasn't it? And then Kate around Thanksgiving also 1985.

1985 has been a good analog for 2008 so far. But I sure hope the season ends early not just for the GOM but for the east coast as well.
Seawitch...I"m sure you mayor will be a great help!
Thanks momma4..and be sure that we intend to help La.as well in our Efforts.

Im aware of the widespread flooding down there as of today still.
30,000 Homes were flooded in Sw to Se Louisiana from Ike.
The needs are great from the Mouth of the river to Below Galveston.

Thanks again for your kind support.
Quoting aubiesgirl:
A wonderful postive note.It appears from a grassroots effort neighbors are helping neighbors. There is nothing stronger than the human spirit in times of need. I have been touched from numerous reports of those that are suffering helping others who are suffering. The greatest thing that ever came out of Ivan for us was the neighborhood pulling togather afterwards,granted we had military support we live on base housing,but everyone pulled togather offered help in the cleanup. we all emptied our freezers cooked everything we could and fed as many that came our way. On the flip side once everything returned to normal most of us never spoke again aside from the occasional wave but it was making the best of a bad situation. This in now way compares to the giving and help I have seen on news reports from local citizens. There is nothing more touching than a selfless act
It is wonderful how we all pull together in times of strife. Military families are great at doing this and I think we all see the togetherness more than we realize. We have some great folks on here giving so much of themselves for others.
Local news posted this morning that 24,000 homes were flooded from Hurrican IKE in Louisiana. Gustav got us w/ alot of wind damage and Ike got us w/ flood waters. We are still trying to recover here also.
My heart goes out to the many many people that are suffering from Hurricane Ike in Texas as well as La. Have a nice day all!
And to think back in July and early August there were a few morons posting here that were complaining that this season was a bust(imagine that). However, I wish they had been right.
882. Agreed. We KNOW how to do things correctly, the problem is the developers. They just care about turning a profit on the land they "develop"....plus, the cost will go up in relation to the quality of the build..which is avoided by both the developer and builders. I did see those 5 or 6 houses that were up to the "new" code in that area..looked like they were 20ft up on telephone poles(can't remember the builders name, but he should be busy in the future). Seems over the top, but it worked great. Does anyone know how long ago this code update went into effect?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Juan in 1985 was around Halloween wasn't it? And then Kate around Thanksgiving also 1985.

1985 has been a good analog for 2008 so far. But I sure hope the season ends early not just for the GOM but for the east coast as well.


Yes, Juan was for Halloween, because in Lafourche Parish some idiot decided to blow our levees with dynomite because his cattle was drowning and so the whole parish flooded. I went trick or treating by pirogue!!
The house -
Owned by -Pamela Adams
992 Churh St.
Gilchrist,TX
Built in 2006
Structure between house and Hwy is (was) First Baptist Church of Gilchrist
Link
Picture of church shows small piece of Yellow house w/black roof behind it.
Interesting info about Gilchrist -
Link
Includes a small picture, which if you download and enlarge does show the improved structure behind the church.
It also shows a picture of hurricane resistant home built in Gilchrist, which resembles the house in question (it is not the house because of the view underneath the house).
The house in the damage photos is in it's original location with pilings underneath the slab driven into the ground (sand).
It appears that the lot was elevated (filled) after original house in the old photos was removed or that location was formerly a natural dune.
Good morning everyone!
We were told this morning that our company should have power by October 1st!! We are so excited!! That will be one month without power!!!
Orca,

How reliable is the CMC regarding development? I know that the GFS is the most reliable overall, and it seems sometimes that the CMC just develops everything. You think this is a serious possibility for the East Coast?

Thanks!
Good morning everyone. Just read through the blog and it has a lot of interesting information.

aubiesgirl comment on the Mayor of Galveston was great. Hope they can get everything together as it has been to long already.

Tazmanian wishful thinking that the Hurricane season is about done. I agree, we don't need another land strike, but we still have a while to go.


FLDART1 and the pictures

And all of the other updates.
910. MahFL
I also think the mayor of Galvaston is out of her depth.
Irrespective of what Tanzaman says nature will do what nature wants, if that means a cat3 in the Gulf, so be it.
Quoting usa777:
I wanted to give you all an update on myself and 3 co-workers planned trip to Texas for Red Cross relief help. We were informed last night 3 hrs before our departure that our help wasnt needed. According to our local Red Cross Rep, there are so many people in the area helping that excessive volunteers are hampering the situation. We are left standing there completely confused!!!Has anyone else heard anything about this as no one I have talked to can explain this to us????


Houston people have jumped in to help as soon as possible. The Red Cross may not need more hands at this point, but other organizations do. There's a link on click2houston.com with organizations that need help!
cmc loves to spin up storms,so find it hard to take it seriously.
Quoting chsstormgirl:
Orca,

How reliable is the CMC regarding development? I know that the GFS is the most reliable overall, and it seems sometimes that the CMC just develops everything. You think this is a serious possibility for the East Coast?

Thanks!


Its been pretty reliable this year. Thats being said, I have noticed it will develop something.. then a few runs later drop it... and then it will be picked up by other models and actually happen, before the CMC picks it up again, if that made any sense?
Quoting Celia1970:


According to the Sunshine Project, the lab at UT-MB Galveston ins a Level 4 facility. Following is the definition of Level 4 Biohazard:

"Biohazard Level 4: Exclusively viruses that cause severe to fatal disease in humans, and for which vaccines or other treatments are not available, such as Bolivian and Argentine hemorrhagic fevers, dengue fever, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, hantaviruses, Lassa fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and other various hemorrhagic diseases. When dealing with biological hazards at this level the use of a Hazmat suit and a self-contained oxygen supply is mandatory. The entrance and exit of a Level Four biolab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, an ultraviolet light room, and other safety precautions designed to destroy all traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed and are electronically secured to prevent both doors opening at the same time. All air and water service going to and coming from a Biosafety Level 4 lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release."

Bio-Labs in Texas are known neither for their transparency nor adherence to safety protocol. During the past year, there have been reports of safety violations in both Texas A & M and University of Texas--Austin Labs. UT-Austin fired the last employee who spoke out about lack of safety--after they hired him to help get things straight.

UTMB is not known for its openness.

If you are concerned, a good starting point is with the Sunshine Project.
Link


Mm. Biohazard level 4. Yes. They have one of those off the end of Long Island. It is called "Plum Island". Google it if you like. It is purely a coincidence that Lyme disease got started just a few miles over the water in Lyme Conneticutt, not long after a strong storm blew through. Ditto West Nile.
915. MahFL
I wonder if they tempted fate....

"The Gilchrist area has a bright future being the closest oceanfront resort area to the Beaumont Port Arthur energy capital, where over 10 billion dollars in investment capital for new energy and chemical plants has been approved"

from http://www.bolivarchamber.org.
It angers and sickens my stomach to see fellow Louisianians acting like this: This is an incert from a RN working at a shelter for Hurricane Gustav in Shreveport, La.
There are some really GREAT people that live here in our great state...however, the bad always outweighs the good.




Before everyone thinks I am a terrible, prejudiced, horrible person, just wanted to send a copy of the letter I sent to the Times editors and Bill O'Reilly. Please pray that Hurricane Ike will NOT come to Louisiana - I don't think I have the attitude of Christ yet!

Sherri



Dear Editor,

I am a nurse who has just completed volunteer working approximately 120 hours as the clinic director in a Hurricane Gustav evacuation shelter in Shreveport , Louisiana over the last 7 days. I would love to see someone look at the evacuee situation from a new perspective. Local and national news channels have covered the evacuation and "horrible" conditions the evacuees had to endure during Hurricane Gustav.

True - some things were not optimal for the evacuation and the shelters need some modification.

At any point, does anyone address the responsibility (or irresponsibility) of the evacuees?

Does it seem wrong that one would remember their cell phone, charger, cigarettes and lighter but forget their child's insulin?

Is something amiss when an evacuee gets off the bus, walks immediately to the medical area, and requests immediate free refills on all medicines for which they cannot provide a prescription or current bottle (most of which are narcotics)?

Isn't the system flawed when an evacuee says they cannot afford a $3 copay for a refill that will be delivered to them in the shelter yet they can take a city-provided bus to Wal-mart, buy 5 bottles of Vodka, and return to consume them secretly in the shelter?

Is it fair to stop performing luggage checks on incoming evacuees so as not to delay the registration process but endanger the volunteer staff and other persons with the very realistic truth of drugs, alcohol and weapons being brought into the shelter?

Am I less than compassionate when it frustrates me to scrub emesis from the floor near a nauseated child while his mother lies nearby, watching me work 26 hours straight, not even raising her head from the pillow to comfort her own son?

Why does it insense me to hear a man say "I ain't goin' home 'til I get my F EMA check" when I would love to just go home and see my daughters who I have only seen 3 times this week?

Is the system flawed when the privately insured patient must find a way to get to the pharmacy, fill his prescription and pay his copay while the F EMA declaration allows the uninsured person to acquire free medications under the disaster rules?

Does it seem odd that the nurse volunteering at the shelter is paying for childcare while the evacuee sits on a cot during the day as the shelter provides a "daycare"?

Have government entitlements created this mentality and am I facilitating it with my work?

Will I be a bad person, merciless nurse or poor Christian if I hesitate to work at the next shelter because I have worked for 7 days being called every curse word imaginable, feeling threatened and fearing for my personal safety in the shelter?

Exhausted and battered,

Sherri Hagerhjelm, RN



917. MahFL
"The residents of Gilchrist
would like to publicly thank
the US Army Corps of Engineers
and the State of Texas
for their brilliant work
to protect and enhance
our beaches!"

Oh someone forget Mother Nature has a say.....
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been pretty reliable this year. Thats being said, I have noticed it will develop something.. then a few runs later drop it... and then it will be picked up by other models and actually happen, before the CMC picks it up again, if that made any sense?


LOL!!! Indeed... it has being doing good this year... seems like is alive. After it knows something might develop it begins doubting itself and then backs out.
Before you look at this link, please be aware that we know the people in Texas have suffered major losses but it is great to see our Governor of Louisiana standing up for his people and his state!!! Link
Sorry. I did miss Rita.

Not intentional for sure.

916. RayRayfromLa 1:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2008

Easily the best post of the day.
morning everyone...hope everyone that was in Ike's path is ok...
Taz please stop with these ridiculous statements although it would be great news for the season to be cut short i see no signs of that happening.We could easily see 4-5 named storms before its all said and done this season.Now wheather they impact land is a different story.
Quoting BeanTech:


100% ? Of course not. You do the best you can.
My point is that she is mayor of a town that is highly vunerable during season. Based on what I've seen so far, she doesn't act like she has much clue at all as to what she's doing. She looks like a deer caught in the headlights on tv.


The frustrating part of it is that there is no process of any kind in place that would help these folks prevent and deal with these disasters. SJ has pretty well documented that the mayor of Galveston probably could have acted with a more appropriate sense of urgency (given that alot of the bloggers here were more afraid than she was). In '05 we saw the same thing with Ray Nagin. How many times do we have to watch this tragedy played out over and over again?
Hello every one ! The CMC develop 144 hours by now a Hurricane N of Hispaniola and a other one W of CV.

See the link

The season will see a other intensity pic before November.
The tropics will begin to increase it's activity 3 to 5 days from now.
That makes total sense... sounds like some of the people I know
I have to say... I am very proud of my little Texas community down here. As I drove around yesterday... No one is waiting for assistance. No one is waiting for the government, handouts, what-have-you to start and clean up. People are helping each other. Using their own tractors, bulldozers and such. It was great to see.

I'm pleased to see the majority of people not sitting here waiting for a govt bailout or blaming the govt for not coming in to help them fast enough.
932. KRL
Quoting usa777:
I wanted to give you all an update on myself and 3 co-workers planned trip to Texas for Red Cross relief help. We were informed last night 3 hrs before our departure that our help wasnt needed. According to our local Red Cross Rep, there are so many people in the area helping that excessive volunteers are hampering the situation. We are left standing there completely confused!!!Has anyone else heard anything about this as no one I have talked to can explain this to us????


Yep. Seen it before first hand. At a distribution point in Florida after the canes a few years back and this location had long lines of people waiting to get stuff. I inquired where to volunteer to help out handing out the relief packages, and got rebuffed with this fellow saying "We're not taking any more volunteers, we're all disorganized because we've got too many volunteers here already."

So being persistent, on the way out I asked a Sheriff who was directing traffic if there was a way to volunteer and help out, and he had the same attitude, gruffly waving me off with a "Sir just keep moving, we've got enough help here already."

Go figure . . .

txalways,
That is how it is here, and it is so great to see your town try to build itself back up and get smiles on everyone's faces instead of waiting for someone to do it for you!!!!
Some pretty good consensus on something possibly sub-tropical in nature of the eastcoast.The ECMWF has been showing some development of the coast for a few runs now.

As far as the CMC iam not buying it until i see some more reliable models picking up on development.CMC/NOGAPS is not enough for me.The GFS has been developing a tc of the african coast for a while no but till now i see 0 signs of it taking place.If development were to take shape out there in my view the chances are low it ever becomes a threat to the U.S.

Adrian
something is brewing across the leeward/windward islands Looks intresting could this be what the models have been indicating development in the caribean
Quoting Flewid:


Mm. Biohazard level 4. Yes. They have one of those off the end of Long Island. It is called "Plum Island". Google it if you like. It is purely a coincidence that Lyme disease got started just a few miles over the water in Lyme Conneticutt, not long after a strong storm blew through. Ditto West Nile.


Please turn your tinfoil hat to SHINY SIDE OUT.

Lyme disease was first clinically described in the 1880s in Europe. In the USA, it was called tickborne meningopolyneuritis, Garin-Bujadoux syndrome, Bannworth syndrome, Afzelius syndrome, Montauk Knee or sheep tick fever.

West Nile virus was not studied in the USA until after it became endemic here.

If that entire lab was battered into pieces, releasing all the viruses, no one would be in any danger. They can't survive long outside the host, and have to be transmitted in specific ways - casual contact isn't enough. Sunlight, pH changes, and other environmental factors kill them quickly. They decay, just like other proteins.
Quoting RayRayfromLa:
It angers and sickens my stomach to see fellow Louisianians acting like this: This is an incert from a RN working at a shelter for Hurricane Gustav in Shreveport, La.
There are some really GREAT people that live here in our great state...however, the bad always outweighs the good.




Before everyone thinks I am a terrible, prejudiced, horrible person, just wanted to send a copy of the letter I sent to the Times editors and Bill O'Reilly. Please pray that Hurricane Ike will NOT come to Louisiana - I don't think I have the attitude of Christ yet!

Sherri



Dear Editor,

I am a nurse who has just completed volunteer working approximately 120 hours as the clinic director in a Hurricane Gustav evacuation shelter in Shreveport , Louisiana over the last 7 days. I would love to see someone look at the evacuee situation from a new perspective. Local and national news channels have covered the evacuation and "horrible" conditions the evacuees had to endure during Hurricane Gustav.

True - some things were not optimal for the evacuation and the shelters need some modification.

At any point, does anyone address the responsibility (or irresponsibility) of the evacuees?

Does it seem wrong that one would remember their cell phone, charger, cigarettes and lighter but forget their child's insulin?

Is something amiss when an evacuee gets off the bus, walks immediately to the medical area, and requests immediate free refills on all medicines for which they cannot provide a prescription or current bottle (most of which are narcotics)?

Isn't the system flawed when an evacuee says they cannot afford a $3 copay for a refill that will be delivered to them in the shelter yet they can take a city-provided bus to Wal-mart, buy 5 bottles of Vodka, and return to consume them secretly in the shelter?

Is it fair to stop performing luggage checks on incoming evacuees so as not to delay the registration process but endanger the volunteer staff and other persons with the very realistic truth of drugs, alcohol and weapons being brought into the shelter?

Am I less than compassionate when it frustrates me to scrub emesis from the floor near a nauseated child while his mother lies nearby, watching me work 26 hours straight, not even raising her head from the pillow to comfort her own son?

Why does it insense me to hear a man say "I ain't goin' home 'til I get my F EMA check" when I would love to just go home and see my daughters who I have only seen 3 times this week?

Is the system flawed when the privately insured patient must find a way to get to the pharmacy, fill his prescription and pay his copay while the F EMA declaration allows the uninsured person to acquire free medications under the disaster rules?

Does it seem odd that the nurse volunteering at the shelter is paying for childcare while the evacuee sits on a cot during the day as the shelter provides a "daycare"?

Have government entitlements created this mentality and am I facilitating it with my work?

Will I be a bad person, merciless nurse or poor Christian if I hesitate to work at the next shelter because I have worked for 7 days being called every curse word imaginable, feeling threatened and fearing for my personal safety in the shelter?

Exhausted and battered,

Sherri Hagerhjelm, RN





We saw the same things at shelters in Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky and North Carolina. But we also saw evacueee's rob, assault, threaten local government officals, demand that they be housed in hotels and not the free shelters, complain about the free food that was provided, they demanded 30 day supplies of meds when they were only here for less than a week, destroyed or damaged shelter equipment and facilities, stated they had no money to return home with, but were able to go out and buy booze, pot and other drugs and use them in the shelters.
Typically this time of year we start to get out of Cape Verde type storms and get into more homegrown storms, but with the pattern we're seeing with stronger than normal ridges I'm starting to wonder.

Quoting KendallHurricane:
something is brewing across the leeward/windward islands Looks intresting could this be what the models have been indicating development in the caribean


At this time the convection your seeing on IR is being caused by an interaction with a upper level low and a tropical wave in the vicinity.I see no signs of a surface feature developing.The caribbean/gulf is the area to watch during the next week or two as the wet phase pushes into the area.
evacuees hanging around with nothing to do= substance abuse. This should be expected.
929. FLDART1

Hmmm...DARRT?
Quoting hurricane23:


At this time the convection your seeing on IR is being caused by an interaction with a upper level low and a tropical wave in the vicinity.I see no signs of a surface feature developing.The caribbean/gulf is the area to watch during the next week or two as the wet phase pushing into the area.
it could deveop a surface circulation probably if it moves towards the western carribean
944. JRRP
O o
Quoting KRL:


Yep. Seen it before first hand. At a distribution point in Florida after the canes a few years back and this location had long lines of people waiting to get stuff. I inquired where to volunteer to help out handing out the relief packages, and got rebuffed with this fellow saying "We're not taking any more volunteers, we're all disorganized because we've got too many volunteers here already."

So being persistent, on the way out I asked a Sheriff who was directing traffic if there was a way to volunteer and help out, and he had the same attitude, gruffly waving me off with a "Sir just keep moving, we've got enough help here already."

Go figure . . .


Wow...Yeah we were wondering the same thing. 2 Days before we were instructed to head to Houston and to bring as many people as we could find. Sounds like things are a little clustered right now.
yes?
There is an upper level trough interacting with a tropical wave, there is no upper level low near the islands.
Dart...lemme email what I was trying to say...brb
Quoting usa777:

Wow...Yeah we were wondering the same thing. 2 Days before we were instructed to head to Houston and to bring as many people as we could find. Sounds like things are a little clustered right now.
Interesting, I got the same thing when I tried to volunteer for Charley, however, they indicated they had some paid positions available. So I gave it up and just donated. We even donated old (but in excellent condition) appliances to Salvation Army as they desperately needed them in the Punta Gorda area.
929. FLDART1 2:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2008



Where were the photos of the damaged house taken?
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
I have to say... I am very proud of my little Texas community down here. As I drove around yesterday... No one is waiting for assistance. No one is waiting for the government, handouts, what-have-you to start and clean up. People are helping each other. Using their own tractors, bulldozers and such. It was great to see.

I'm pleased to see the majority of people not sitting here waiting for a govt bailout or blaming the govt for not coming in to help them fast enough.
Yeah, good things happening amongst the difficult times. Nice to hear this especially after some of what I was just reading from the shelters.
952. JRRP

Were talking about some alternate plans for this also Conchy. I'm just so time restricted at work and my employer was kind enough to give us off a week to help out. Who knows, we will figure something out.
Quoting conchygirl:
Interesting, I got the same thing when I tried to volunteer for Charley, however, they indicated they had some paid positions available. So I gave it up and just donated. We even donated old (but in excellent condition) appliances to Salvation Army as they desperately needed them in the Punta Gorda area.
916. Makes me angry....pouring coffee over head.....:~(((
Ah, isn't nature great? We have hurricanes to balance out tropospheric heat build up...and we have these lazy irresponsible folks that are the opposite of our Pat/SJ/Press etc etc...Ying and Yang. I feel for our volunteers...strong folks indeed.
And here comes the MJO ahead of schedule.....
For those people thinking about volunteering to assist following a disaster, FEMA has a course about it and it might be surprising to some, exactly what governments think about what is called spontaneous volunteers the problems associated with them
Link
Quoting twifob:


Please turn your tinfoil hat to SHINY SIDE OUT.

Lyme disease was first clinically described in the 1880s in Europe. In the USA, it was called tickborne meningopolyneuritis, Garin-Bujadoux syndrome, Bannworth syndrome, Afzelius syndrome, Montauk Knee or sheep tick fever.

West Nile virus was not studied in the USA until after it became endemic here.

If that entire lab was battered into pieces, releasing all the viruses, no one would be in any danger. They can't survive long outside the host, and have to be transmitted in specific ways - casual contact isn't enough. Sunlight, pH changes, and other environmental factors kill them quickly. They decay, just like other proteins.


Figures that there would be a government disinformation specialist lurking on this site. LOL, pardon my duh.
Quoting hurricane23:


At this time the convection your seeing on IR is being caused by an interaction with a upper level low and a tropical wave in the vicinity.I see no signs of a surface feature developing.The caribbean/gulf is the area to watch during the next week or two as the wet phase pushes into the area.



Not saying there is but, there is certainly a mid-level feature. Remember this?

Tropical Depression Ten formed 1100 statute miles (1770 km) east of the Lesser Antilles on August 13. Conditions were not favorable for development, as strong vertical shear literally ripped the system apart, and advisories were discontinued the next day when it showed no organized deep convection. The remnants of Tropical Depression Ten continued drifting northwestward before degenerating into a tropical wave north of the Leeward Islands. The mid-level remnant circulation eventually merged with another system in the "complex genesis" of what would become Tropical Depression Twelve and, eventually, Hurricane Katrina.[14]

Not comparing the two but, the mid-level / Tropical Wave interaction is there. ULL is enhancing the activity.
Remember folks this is Texas and even an mandatory evacuation does not mean that they can make anyone leave. I f folk choose to stay there is no way they can be dragged out of here. Natures culling process is able to work unimpeded at storm time. Sad but everyone here is doing their best to pick up all the pieces. My husband works on Galveston Island and people there including the may or are operating very little sleep, trying to use the available resources to the benefit of the greatest population. The one water main from the mainland to the island will take a great deal of repair before they have running water. The natural gas generators are useless as the gas has been turned off due to leaks and the is no power other than gas or diesel generators. Beginning to get limited phone service and water is being trucked in as are groceries and tents for some of the workers to be fed under. Incredible amount of work has already been accomplished but so much more to do.Those on the island and surrounding areas really deserve a break folks, negativity only begets negativity. We need more positive words to support the people who are working so hard in poor conditions with very little to work with.
958. fireflymom 3:22 PM GMT on September 18, 2008

They should change that. It's irresponsible and selfish to defy a mandatory evac. Decisions like that not only put you in grave danger, they also put the people who have to come rescue you in danger as well. Financial ramifications, that take a back seat at that point because life is more important, apply as well.
960. MahFL
We keep hearing of putting first responders lives at risk.
First responders are usually very carefull, well trained and experinced.

When was the last time a first responder died in a Hurricane related rescue ?
Quoting keywestbrat:
if they put as much effort into getting people out of the barrier islands as they do about not letting anyone back on the island probably alot more people would be alive, I agree that there are alot more people not accounted for that they are letting on, if you think about it the houses are gone and so are the ones that stayed in those houses, you would not have a chance with all the debry sloshing around in the surge, sad but true,


I know it is a lot to hope for, but I posted a picture of what my parents survived and swam out of during Katrina earlier in this blog. They were 73 and 64 at the time, and saved their three dogs.


Maybe we'll hear of a few more miracles.


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