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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The Curse of Chris Continues?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:34 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

Hello everybody, this is Shaun taking over for Dr. Masters the next few days. You may also hear from another meteorologist here named Rob.

What a difference a day makes, huh? Just yesterday, Dr. Masters was talking about Chris almost being hurricane strength and the NHC had it eventually gaining hurricane status as well. Now the official forecast has it turning into a tropical depression (if it hasn't done so already) and drifting aimlessly west-northwestward towards Cuba.


Official NHC Forecast.

The only real convection noted from Chris is well to the southeast of the storm's center near Puerto Rico. An upper-level system dropped southward overnight and really did a number on the system. This caused an increase in shear to 15-20 knots and dry air that really weakened the storm. The hurricane hunter found a weak storm that may have turned into a tropical depression already. Nonetheless, the convection is expected to hammer Puerto Rico and continue towards Hispaniola later today.



There is some chance for re-development if the wind shear slacks off and the dry air can be cut off. But we will want to see if there is any evidence of that later in the day. The steering ridge system's north will continue to keep the storm to the south on a west-northwestern course towards the southern Bahamas and eventually Cuba.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This is a new update with important data that includes the scenario for Chris to regenerate as well as the new recon and advisory data.



Click the image to go to hurricane warning.


Chris has become very weak but, has some hope. I have made a complete update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 5:10 PM EST aboout Chris. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of Chris. Feel free to discuss Chris on my blog.
Cane is Dr. Phil in disguise?
Tannim.... I live in Gonzales. Only 20 miles southeast of you!!!
Howdy, Alaina...
If this blog is be taken as a defacto authority or some type of NOAA behind the scenes debate maybe it should be closed down. Because whoever said it is right, the NHC is the best at doing what it does. They really are? Anything they miss it's because the current knowledge does not allow anyone to do better, I believe that. Yes some folks want ot see America take a hit, several of them. That is their own personal business. But you would still go to jail for beating up a storm monger, ideas in this country are free, period.
Actually if you look at the "cone" on the NHC, South FLorida is still in the "cone". And they always say don't look at the black line in the middle, there is large errors in predicting 3 days out, so JP is right in saying that South Florida should still keep their eye on Chris
Howdy...hehe. Havent heard that one in a while. Im a youngster fascinated with hurricanes. Just trying to learn....
keep your eye on what? its a "tropical storm" only because the NHC "thinks" there might be some 40mph winds somewhere.

this thing is beyond done, a wave is all anyone will feel from this
Ummm... are we back in the highschool girls locker room or what!?!?
Neptune,
Just because you have homeowners doesn't mean they take care of you after hurricanes.
Its a nice thought that they will, but sometimes the good hands people only give you a finger. That's from personal experience after Ivan.
The fact that they consider storm surge to be flood damage and not from wind was real bad for many folks.
<"in his best singing voice" We are the World....everybody hold hands and sing!
alaina1085,

What part of Gonzales are you from? Southside, Westbank? Just kidding, I know Gonzales is not that big. I was born and raised there.
Look, nobody cares if the predictions that are made are wrong or right... Everyone cares that they are EDUCATED GUESSES. Do not say one thing will happen ABSOLUTELY or one thing will not happen ABSOLUTELY.
look guys remember last year! Chris is moving into the same spot a downgraded TD 10 moved into..which eventually became TD 12..which would be named Katrina..then 3 days later in the Gulf a cat 5
Nelly is freakin' hilarious. Very few people get this pissed over weather. Thanks for the entertainment.
I'm done over here. One last question is there anyone other than Masters and his aids who has a college degree remotely related to meteorology?
Nelly, I live in South Florida. Will you hold me? I'm scared.
CaneJunkie

HAHAHA!!! ROFL. Thats a good one. Yea i was born and raised here too... FUN STUFF huh? haha.
tshizzle and Nelly, please stop. I'm not taking sides but remember younger viewers come here. The language needs to stop. You are getting worked up over pixels, calm down. I suspect most of your posts will be removed as soon as the language is observed by the moderators of this blog.
As someone who lived through a pretty solid Cat 3 three years ago, I have to say that all those here cheering the storms are BONKERS! It's simply NOT good news when a storm intensifies or refuses to die; it makes it that much more likely that someone, a REAL PERSON, will be affected by your nice little picture on your computer.
So, please stop being inhuman...
there is nothing wrong with being prepared and keeping a eye out on any tropical system that is out there and may effect you. This isn't a movie in which you've seen a 100 times and know the ending, its mother nature and no 2 storms are the same (therefore no 2 same endings)
Neptune I'm a geophysicist. I don't claim to know exactly what I'm talking about, I just enjoy observing weather. And I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night either.
WELL SAID NASH - I AM MARKING EVERYONE OF NELLY'S REMARKS AS SPAM OR OBSCENE!!!
JP...I am mosly a lurker and will totally back you up as to what you are saying. Nelly is just a troll. There were loads of people on here last night that really had no business being on here and it appears they are still around today. JP is one of a handful of dedicated bloggers that provide facts and data from many sites and offer up opinions and scenarios as they see them. These can change by the minute/hour/day. Even if JP changes his tune, which he really hasn't, forecasts are updated all the time. It is not a static environment out there. All those that want to sit around and trash people start your own blog and see how many people actually stop by. You will be talking to yourself. Keep up the good work JP and others.
WELL SAID NASH
Your joking right Cajun, they are teenagers! Yes I know FL30, the cost of insurance in the hurricane belt is a hot topic in the Midwest. People want to know if the rates really reflect the increased risk expected due to climate change in the next few decades. It's similar with flood insurance. Grand Forks get's rebuilt every other year. Move the damn city is what alot of people are starting to think, insurance is high enough already and Katrina just about bankrupted the industry. That's why some of them announced they would not offer insurance in that market anymore. Insurance as a safety net can only be stretched so far. These types of disasters need to be covered by a federal fund that does'nt get tapped into everytime the government needs a little slush money.
Hey duchenizzle! we know you said its done so go back to your sandbox!
Posted By: NeptuneRising at 9:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2006.
[...]
The deal with predicting these things , AND PLEASE LISTEN NOW, involves models that use finite difference and probably finite lement methods for solving systems of differential equations (Navier-Stokes equations) that are being fitted using data samples (statistics). The nature of general solutions ot Navier-Stokes is an OPEN QUESTION in applied mathematics. Dial it back!

NeptuneRising - The lack of a general closed analytical solution is not the issue. The rounding and discretization errors for finite difference methods are well known, and the error can be bounded in finite element methods by using complimentary variational methods. This is pretty much ancient history these days in the field of numerical analysis.

The real problems are uncertainties and approximations used for initial conditions and boundary conditions, much more so than the lack of a "general solution".
Obscene posts will be reported as such. This is a clean blog.
wow tshizzle -- you need a valium or something man.. RELAX... BREATH

its ok .. people can disagree with you and youll live .. i promise

oh and by the way... CHRIS is far from done! Last i checked was still listed as a NAMED TS.
I predict that will chris will enter the gulf and intensify... not because i want doom and gloom but because that is what i think...

also S.Flo will get some type of effect from this system.. im not saying what or how much just yet.. anything from a cloudy day to a strong TS is very possible right now
JP are you a lawyer?
I am sorry guys for spouting off. I had all I could take from him. I know that profanity is not allowed, and I apologize for that. But someone had to say this. I respect you guys more than you know. I feel as though I have become part of a worldwide family in here who truly want to absorb knowledge, bounce ideas, and yeah good natured ribbing along with it. I do not have patience for those who claim to know it all and then are down right nasty to those who are good people.
Yea, and they predicted that freak of nature's path to turn north into the panhandle. Then it shifted west,and again and again and again on a 12 hour basis. The bottom line is all of this
computer aided atmospheric "prediction" software is just a bunch of 1's and 0's that give us an idea of what is possible. Not even our greatest scientific minds and our best computers can predict what conditions can change within a 12 hour period. JMHO.
OK this morning La Guardia Airport had a low of 87, and yesterday Central Park had a low of 83. Are these records for those locations or what? No mention on any IWIN pages or the local NYC page at Upton
Cajun,

Glad to know ya, I have a BS in mathematics and an MS in Environmental Science and Policy, I'm watching this site mostly as it relates to the oil market and global climate change. I have no desire to see people hurt and I just got real insulted by that guy. The blog is fast paced so you have to type fast to get in the flow and you make mistakes. I had my fill of the anal retentive corwd always knowing the right formula but never knowing what they actually mean. Forgive me if I offended you. Every reason to think this is going to be another punishing season. I hope out of it we can develop better models and better policy.
Cyclone, I think alternative energy sources do need to be explored but the weather is so dynamic. I don't understand how you could expect to harness it. I see gas hydrates off the gulf and atlantic coasts being the next big fuel boom.
My husband is from Gonzales for those of you cajun folk who were on that topic. His whole family still lives around there.
Oh ok, because you have this proof thing going on thats all. Just wondering.
Then Nelly why dont you just leave??
That really does not look like a lot of convection in the center to me. The area to the north of Hispanolia has historically been very hostile to tropical systems, even when they are heading to the west or WNW without the center hiting land.
Well yes Nelly, I do care if I get banned. But it's cool dude. Go ahead and trash talk people like me, JP, weatherguy03, 456, Turtle, SJ, Hurricane23, etc.... who run CIRCLES around you scientifically, resonability and most importantly TACT!!!!!
gbreezegirl...... Cool. Nice to see ya here. Im a newbie trying to learn. Its pretty informative here. Besides the drama...lol.
The Caribbean Sea...
despite there being a tropical storm just north of Puerto Rico...the most active convection in the Caribbean this
afternoon lies in the NW portion between the Yucatan Peninsula
AS THE WORLD TURNS
I agree with everyone that has chimed in about you - Nelly you're not a positive contribution to this blog.
Neptune, I'm not easily offended :D I just run a scientific discussion board in my spare time that caters to youth and armchair-scientist types. So I always try and keep these type of places clean. Everyone has their opinions and I like to see all sides on an issue.

The site is IgnoranceDenied by the way. Everyone is welcome there, but a warning. I don't tolerate trolls or profanity. I'm ZSandMann over there.
Hey just a question....but has anyone checked on that wave coming off Africa? Whats it look like?
This place is beginning not to be a place to learn, unless you want to learn how to point fingers. Why does some people think.... oh well what the heck, does anyone else agree with me. Oh and by all means point any grammar error or misspelling I have here!
welcome alaina - the names mentioned by nash are all the good guys. when trolls like nelly come on the best thing to do is totally ignore!!! nelly? nelly?? wno??
I would also like to give props to JP and others like him. It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, you're contributing to the discussion. Thanks for doing that. It's unfortunate that so many people don't understand the inherent unpredictability of weather. It's even more unfortunate when certain of these people (always the immature ones) feel the need to somehow hold people responsible for what they perceive as a distortion of the truth or an outright lie, when really it's just the simple fact that WEATHER IS NOT A STABLE THING. There are no sure bets. NOTHING in weather is written in stone, despite what some would have you believe.

If you can't handle these simple truths, my advice to you is to go play solitaire and just wait for the evacuation orders. Stop cluttering the discussion.

So here's a prediction for certain of you (and you know who you are): lose the attitude and the language or you'll find your stay here very short. That's closer to being written in stone than any forecast you'll see here.
Fair enough JP. I hear what you are saying. I just thought you were a lawyer. Ya never know. I play on-line golf with some lawyers..LOL
I am sure I will require stitches after saying this but, since observing this blog, I have come to respect jp, turtle, sj, 23, 456 and ST very much for their observations. I came to this blog realizing that it was not the NHC, NOAA, TWC, Accuweather or anyone else that I EXPECTED to have the credentials that allowed them to call themselves experts, but individuals genuinely interested in the hurricane environment and effects it produced. I have discovered that these people do not hold themselves above those organizations but more reference and comment on the references based on what they have learned. They openly admit if they are wrong and normally, jokingly jest each other with friendly disagreements. This hostility is unbelievable these last few days and I have not seen it coming from these same individuals but from people who, for some reason, resent the fact that they are here to learn, play a little and explore their abilities. I don't think anyone here comes here to find a forecast or information BETTER than any certified experts.

Sorry, I will go and get the first aid kit - jp would you like a bandaide or do you need stitches. Dr. Daniels is on the way.
alaina- yep that wave is our next huge storm according to CMC and GFS. Look at the models page and it already looks like a cat 3 half way off africa.

by the way.. long live CHRIS!!
Again, I apologize for the use of profanity. It's just that I think we as a society have become WAY to politically correct for our own good in fear of piussing someone off and the world would be a much better place if people could just be real and tell it like it is.
Thanks NaplesPatty. I could tell by reading who the "good guys" were. lol. I think its wonderful how ppl voice their oppinons as long as its in a tactful manner. Thats how we all learn.
Posted By: NellyStormGeeks at 9:40 PM GMT on August 03, 2006.
alaina I plan on it...


Dont tease us ...do it...leave...stop posting...

I have lurked here often for the past three years- I don't post or get involved in the drama...BUT NELLY NEEDS TO GO...talk about stiring the pot!

FYI Nash love your insight this year and last- and all the others with true insight thanks- after having Charliego over us and Frances and Jeannie ...well being prepared and informed are just the norm for this time of year and most of you help us do that- thanks-
JP you got mail
STPete everyone seems to be really good at pointing fingers here lately. and yes your grammar is as bad as mine lol see ya
There needs to be a function on Wunderground to 'ignore' posts from specific users. I'll drop an e-mail to the admin offering that suggestion.
Well Nelly, since you brought it up, I am going to school and getting my degree in Meteorology with a minor in Physics. Any other questions?
Well we all know that if his username gets banned he'll simply return with another alias - hence the 'ignore' function idea! ;)
cyclone just won't give up on those silly "tunnels" of his, will he?

Someone please tell him how ridiculous they are (not like it matters)...but then again you all don't wish to talk about them anyway. My bad...
lol...

this is fun watching you peeps argue.. like a soap opera on my comp screen.. :::)))
What school are you going to Nash?
We need a "Report As: Harassment" option.
But it's only for the sake of the newbies to mention how silly they are, so they can learn.
Canebear, have you ever been involved in blogs before on-line?
tshizzle - I do not understand why you keep claiming you were "smart enough to actually LISTEN to the NHC", and at the same time claim you were following the several runs of the GFDL. The NHC discounted the GFDL as an outlier, so it has to be one or the other, but not both.
NeptuneRising, We know you have a BS.
what wunderground needs are monitors on all of the blogs. I think admin i working on that but dont know how the progress is comming
I was around last night have been for a couple of weeks.

I've never seen JP be an inciter of negative activity. I've seen him defend his position when being attacked. I've seen him collaborate with other when he is trying to figure out something.

In any blog it is hard to read people because you can't see their faces or you come in on the middle of a conversation and some stick in their own two cents without reading back in the blog archive.

Nelly,
I think your perception of JP was flawed in some way like that. First impressions can be hard to get rid of if your trying to prove a point without considering all the facts.
I have been lurking through the past 2 threads. You would think this is a debate about the SUperbowl and Wrestlemania all tied into one. I think we need to get back to talking about CHRIS and not each other before we lose the PRIVLAGE of posting on the blogs..
Alright peeps it was great learning but I gotta go teach some kickboxing. Be back lata.
robinvtx, I really enjoy messing with you, lol. I am originally from Tennessee and you know we have our own language and the "hillbilly" dictionary. If you ever get to St. Petersburg let me buy you a steak dinner.
600. SEFL
Same drama here every year. You have to pick and chose who makes sense and just ignore the trolls. For them the game is the name calling. If you don't like someone, just ignore them...isn't that what you would do in the "real" world....?
Crap. My last post didn't show.

Weatherguy03: I am currently at FMU in Tampa and transferring to FSU next June.
Yes, weatherguy03, I have. And I get your point. But this is a weather blog. The discussions are serious, and there's no room for this ridiculous stuff here. So again, props to JP and the others who are just giving their honest opinions, RIGHT OR WRONG, because they manage to do it civilly.
True SEFL - I and some others are guilty and fell prey to the trolls. Never again - ignore, ignore, ignore, ignore!!
Hello all! I am new to these blogs, but come to them for more insight to forcasting and for ideas on scenerios of WHat if? I am 17 years old and come from So. Florida. I have been interested in weather my whole life. I was reading these boards and noticed that there are alot of adult assholes out there. Can't believe that. I would like to join in discussion(with my small knowledge on the subject comapred to most you) So bear with me.. Now to start.
----------------------
I agree with JP on the Track of Chris. It has been drifting north of the NHC line the life of the storm. If Im not mistaken though, on Visible, the "eye" Is actually in line to strike the northern most Turks and Caicos, and follow that line all the way up to possibly Andros or farther north. But thats just my two cents.
STPETE I born in wva raised in ohio but all my relatives are in west virginia so believe me i know the hillybilly discttionaary. ... i like u too. i would love the dinner .. time to go see ya
ignore, ignore, ignore
Nash - way to go - I always thought you could look at clouds and tell what was coming. I never realized until a year or so ago how much physics, math and calculation is involved in the weather - I liked it better when I thought you could tell by the clouds, but that didn't work for the last few hurricanes - I depend on you guys for questions that the "other guys" can't or won't stop to answer - and you are pretty good with limiting the drama...then again, these last couple of days have been a real entertaining experience - what little I have gotten to observe. Anyway, back to real weather. I really want to know what is out there and what to expect without having to wait 25 minutes for meaningless news of who talked about who on the local channels.
crazman - i don't think they are adults - maybe 13 or 14 yr olds
st pete it really takes alot to PO me off you wont ever see it happen. daz got to me though and i dont hardly participate
Afternoon All,
I see we have some bad blood here today. What a shame.. JP I have been reading this blog for about 2 months,and i rarely post... But I can say this .. Your posts are insightful and well thought out...Keep the faith my man
New blog
Oh come on...we don't need monitors in these blogs...we're not kids you know (well some of us are I guess). We can handle ourselves on our own! =]
I give 65% odds that Chris will dissapte comepletely. If Chris survives the extremely dry low level air being created by foehn effects from the mountains of Hispanolia, then he has a good chance in the Gulf of strengthening rapidly. However, I do disagree with STORMTOP about the zome of greatest threat--I think a Victoria/Corpus Christi landfall is more likely than a landfall on the north Gulf coast. But then what do I know ;-)
Try to ignore the moron.
Don't post a reply that involves his thoughts.
Better yet don't even read them.
*rolls eyes* There he goes again with that Pascal and Bernoulli nonsense...

Someone take care of him for me please...
saddlegait- I completely agree with you on your statement. I really respect those individuals who provide me their insite to these storms. I am still new at this and probably won't make any forcasts of my own but love to look at the proof and theories those of you have on here. Hopefully this petty back & forth will end so we can get back on topic.

That being said...I am heading home, work day has finally ended and a glass of wine is calling my name
Hello friends,

Just a quick pop in to thank all those who helped provide info about Chris to all of the Caribbean islanders, with a special nod to StormJunkie, skypony, and my island neighbors weather456 and tropicaldan. The storm's total affect on St. Croix was 15 minutes of light rain (with not a hint of a breeze nor any drop in the high temps) just after 9 pm AST last night. I like it!

Am retreating to lurker status until hopefully the childish trolls are banned using their IP address or starved away from being totally ignored.

Thanks again, all...and best wishes to those that may still be affected by what's left of Chris.

--CC
you see why some need monitoring now Quake?
Heh well adults or not they sure bicker like old women(no offense to those older women out there ;)).
Wow! I see the attention has been drawn from 'Chris' to aimless name-calling and bashing of other people... typical.

On the other hand, back to 'Chris', yesterday I was predicting a Cat 1 to pass between FL and Cuba with a possible impact on the FL Keys or Southern tip of FL... boy was I off, on intensity at least. The odds of 'Chris' strengthing into anything other than a TD before reaching the vicinty of the Keys is nil. I say that because I do not think it is even a TD at this point, but could restrengthen before Sunday. If it maintains whatever is left of a surface low, it could re-fire in the Gulf but at this point, I'd say it's less than a 20% chance of gaining strong TS or even hurricane status. I think a more likely scenario is that 'Chris' will become a hard to define tropical wave that washes out in the Gulf... but it's certainly something to watch as long as there is 'something' to it.

To everyone on this blog, I have seen evidence of people suggesting they want hurricanes to hit wherever they reside or are currently located. It's no secret that weather fanatics love when action happens (adreneline rush anyone?). If you're one of the few who genuinely do not want to see the power of nature over your head, stop suggesting it. I see SEVERAL users admit where they are located when all is quiet and if you go back and research their predictions on storms, it almost always ends up they predict the storms will hit where they admit they are.

I think what's happening on this site is there are users spread all over the Gulf Coast and when a storm threatens the Gulf States, it's a battle on who will get it. The users who are located near where the offical forecast path is all agree with eachother while those who 'wish' it would hit them discount the path and offer radical 'predictions' that are based on nothing more than the 'want' of a storm. These are the users who use meterological terms without knowing what they mean or what their impact would be and are the easiest users to pick out and ignore.

Get over your adreneline rushes people and get over your 'jealously' when the center of attention is not on you but where the action is.
Revising my statement--odds of Chris disappating completely in next 36 hours is 80% :)
well said, wxwatcher!
I'm located north of Pensacola and dealt with Ivan & Dennis. Even though I am very fasinated with weather and have been all my life, I certainly do not wish another hurricane to come my direction. I just like to follow them and try to understand their birth, existence and death. Reading this blog has been very educational and I thank all of those for their honest information, whether right or wrong....we're all still learning!
An interesting thing you can see on the satellite pictures is very strong thunderstorms along the center and south side of the Dominican Republic. These are coming from the windflow around Chris with west and southwest winds banking against the mountains. Once the air crosses the mountains, it is much drier and warms and compresses as it downslopes from the mountains, and becomes very dry for tropical areas, with dewpoints in the 50s and 40s. These are deadly to tropical storms.

Hurricane Debby in 2000 is another storm that was dried out by foehn winds from off the Dominican Republic. Link
If you think Chris is on his last leg, you should look at IR2 loop and re evaluate your conclusion.Link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
...Chris looks like its trying to get its act together again but has some Northerly shear working against her..
chris is getting his act together now....half of the circulation has already wrapped covection around it....this is going to be a interesting night for the NHC...THEY BETTER GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER CHRIS IS COMING BACK AND I MEAN IN VENGENCE.....StormTop
Link

THIS SAYS IT ALL