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The curse of Chris comes through

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2006

Hello all, Jeff Masters back again from a few days on Lake Superior. That's always a great way to beat the heat, but not so much during this incredibly hot summer of 2006. I have never been able to do what I did today--dive to 20 foot depth in Lake Superior and not be bone chilled. The water temperature in the lake--and all the Great Lakes--are at record levels this summer. I was able to spend up to 30 minutes at a stretch in the ridiculously warm 70+ degree water in some of the bays of this usually 45-55 degree lake. In any case, I'm ready and rested to take on the peak part of hurricane season, now that the preliminaries are over with.

The "curse" of Chris comes through
As I mentioned in my Wednesday blog, storms named Chris have been notorious for their lack of oomph, and I was counting on this to be the case again this year when I decided to take a few days off this week. Well, I got away with it, but don't think I wasn't concerned. I did call in to check and see if Chris of 2006 was going to bash Florida, and was ready to cut short my trip. My friend Dr. Chris Landsea of NHC was also concerned, and was ready to start boarding up the house again. But, the curse of Chris came through again, and the storm is dead. Will it rise again? Tune in tomorrow, and I'll have an analysis of this, plus all the other news from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



three storms in the West Pacific.
Lyon

Thanks for posting that.

1. It is kinda cool
2. even if something did try to fire in the gulf it would get eaten up.
I wonder if there is an actual meteorological term for that feature. I normally wouldn't have noticed, but it is rather well-defined.
Wierd.
If I'm wrong I'll eat crow even have 2 servings but as of right now Sat night 8/5/06 at 12:51am I say that the cnvection will continue to weaken around remnants Chris and it will still be a low tomorrow and won't become a TD or anything higher. It is written in stone!! (I lost my eraser and my pencil broke s no refining of my "forecast").
Give me a few minutes and let me pull out the books and look it up.
If Chris reforms back to TS statues soon it would be called Chris. If one dies down like he has the resulting wave has to totally disappear or get rapped up in another wave or entity to be named a different name or #. NOtice on the list from the Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page, that I posted the link to in my last post. NOAA is still calling him Chris...though too weak for a T#:)
People asking about the remnant low of Chris and what it would be named if it reformed -

1. think of the remnant low as a rubber band stretched between two fingers - in other words, elongated. Then twist the rubber band, and you have two smaller "rubber bands". What is moving through the FL straights is not so much a new low as part of the wave that used to be Chris. If it reforms (that is, redevelops circulation surrounded by convection) it will likely be renamed Chris.

2. For storms that changed centres of circulation, u need only look at Jeanne (2004). Between Haiti and Inagua (SE Bahamas) the original LLC went west, while the convection reformed around a new centre and went north. If u look at a track map, you will see the abrupt shift.

BTW, the island in the Bahamas that the low is west of is ANDROS, not ABACO . . .
jp - no, it sure doesn't. She looks a LOT meaner than 40KT
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 4:54 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
umm guys take a look at this and tell me if this looks like a 45mph storm?


Looks more like a hurricane than a TS (happens all the time in the West Pacific).
Maria looks like she has an eye..
Skye - Good information. Jumping from (21.6N,76.3W) ro (22.1N,78.8W) makes a discontinuity in the former path, so low pressure center most likely reformed.
JP nop it a hurricane
Chris-blob is fast becoming Ex-Chris-blob
JMA has Maria at 45 knots
jp, I went to look at a map because I thought there was some different convection. Then I figured out what u meant . . . LOL
All I am seeing Lyon is eye or eye like feature. there is some mention of a axis clearing. Not seeing much though. If i didn't put the book away I would get into it again and be up all night readind it. The wife would kill me.
That ULL in the north gulf is chewing both the GOM-blob and Ex-Chris-blob up like a climotological black hole. Fascinating to watch on wv
Thanks for checking, Barkeep.
No problem. I don't really need much encouragement to pull out the old books.
That's a cool loop, jp. Is the swirl over N. Vietnam and Southern China the remanants of a fourth system that went ashore recently?
JP, http://www.weathercity.com/jp/iwojima/index.phpLink this weather in Iwo Jima says pressure 100.4Kp is that same as 1004mb, if so I bet that iswhy Maria looks like that with 40knt winds.
probably is what's left over from Prapiroon
Purapiruun =P
531. KRL
Just had a beautiful lighting show down towards Miami-Dade County.

Not much rain as we get the remnents of Chris passing south of here.
プラピルーン (Purapiruun)

that how the name is romanized in katakana
Okay, I heard about that storm. Left a mess behind it.
ボプハ Bopha wonder if this is correct writing for this storm.
Strange:



This says that Chris is not dead yet; maybe they didn't get the message?

According to this, there is a lot of circulation in the central Atlantic:



More maps here.
(Pur-ap-i-ruun)

If you were a hillbilly you would be heading for the hills....lol
This has nothing to do with tropical wx, but SNL has become so contrived and unfunny that it is torturous to watch now.
MichaelSTL~ I had just noticed that, was about to post it...
jp do u think the african wave has a chance?
Chris didn't have that menising red symbol over him a few hours ago on that map. It was gone & now it's back.
That SOB is gonna head toward Pensacola. Lots of 86 degree water on east side of Gulf. Hope he moves quick.
Michael the cyclone symbol was gone earlier
ANd I leave you all tonight with the death of Chris link. night all




Link
Posted By: HurricaneChris at 5:16 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
Wow!

Chris was such a poweful storm it completely disappeared from the sat images.

Unfortunately, our primitive sats can't pick up such 'Canes as Chris. Chris is simply too powerful.

The darn NHC is messing up again and must "be smoking crack" for not advising that the entire state of Louisianna evacuate immediately.

Early reports from STORMTOP weather station indicate that Chris is now a CAT1 hurricane, but should merge with the storm in the gulf and upgrade itself to a CAT5 wrecking ball.


Are you STORMTOP and what are you talking about?
im pretty sure he is joking there big guy
yea but the other one isnt heading in our direction right?
MichaelSTL - I think it's a jab on all of ST's prior doomsaying concerning the Ex-Chris-blob for most of this evening.
Awww. what the heck. I'll go ahead and start packing, certainly something's headed my way as well....
Quicscat has him as a storm again, though no recent passes.
It's not STORMTOP! hurricanechris speaks "the truth"! I know who he is!!! (I knew there was a reason I stayed up late- the Midnight Show!)
HC/ if there's one thing I've learned here it's you need to give it up dude. Quit sharing that crack pipe and please lock the door on your bomb shelter and stay there.



ouch!



look at this oh no
If anyone can detect a surface circulation over Cuba on the floater right now their eyes must be much sharper than mine. The Cuban Instituto de Meteorologa issued its last advisory at 6:00 AM August 05, here is the translation (I really shoud fix it but the Babel Fish Spanish->English translation has some humor value):

Warning of Tropical revolving storm. Center of Prognoses, INSMET. Date: 5 of August of 2006. Hour: 6:00 A.M.. WARNING OF TROPICAL REVOLVING STORM No. 14. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS. ... Chris dissipates near Cuba... The Tropical Depression Chris during the night has continued being debilitated, now their maintained maximum winds are of 35 kilometers per hour and one central pressure of 1011 hectoPascal. Poorly defined central region of Chris to six in the morning of today it was considered in the 21,5 degrees of North latitude and the 75,8 degrees of west longitude, position that locates it to about 155 kilometers to the East of Nuevitas, Camagey. One hopes that the depression or the rest of her, moves to the West at the rate of 20 kilometers per hour. One foretells that in next the 12 to 24 hours rest of this system they will cause rains in the Eastern region, that will be transferred to the center of Cuba from afternoon. This it will be the last warning of tropical revolving storm on this system.
God, I would run away from Maria, is it heading for Japan there's no place to go.. =(
as a matter of fact, it just started raining about 5 minutes ago and just stopped. i live in pembroke pines, broward county
remnant Chris low is still under the weakening convection but it's pressure has risen 1 mb while th low off the LA coast has risen by 2 mb. I still stay with my forecast of the remnant Chris low not doing anything but staying a weak and pitiful low not ecoming a TDor anything higher.
Posted By: HurricaneChris at 12:28 AM CDT on August 06, 2006.
"Are you STORMTOP and what are you talking about?"

No, I am not STORMTOP.

And, I speak the truth. You may ignore Hurricane Chris at your own peril.

However, I remain content in my nuclear bomb shelter as Chris sucks up Red Bull aka GOM heading right for your house.

laugh my @$$ off and we thought st was crazy this blog just keeps getting funnier and funnier.
JP...you seem to be keeping an eye on the systems in the east ATL...these should pass the leewards within 10 days right...still have to wait and see or any idea on that?
571. Alec
Well....better go hide in my nuke shelter again...LOL
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:35 PM JST on August 06, 2006.
HurricaneChris....are you in love with STORMTOP; its ok we wont judge you

---
role model more like it
Speaking of Cuba, I think I'll wind down on the porch with the rest of my Montecristo.
No, seriously: Is this not what global warming is all about-- bigger, better 'canes?

Boy, we ought to stop heating our homes with those "fossil fuels" else we may produce more raving lunatic death spirals like 'Cane Chris.
Posted By: HurricaneChris at 12:34 AM CDT on August 06, 2006.
"Awww. what the heck. I'll go ahead and start packing, certainly something's headed my way as well...."

Very wise decision. I recommend that EVERYONE keep a close eye on Hurricane Chris.

If you recall, Ivan "did the same thing" and boy that was no fun.

I would say, the chances of Chris stripping the GOM shoreline down to dirt is 75%.

STORMTOP weather station just said Chris will make Katrina look like an afternoon sun shower.

More on this later...

lol are you on something?
HurricaneC better not be in love with him cuz I am!!
"HurricaneChris....are you in love with STORMTOP; its ok we wont judge you"

No. However, I respect the man's ability to speak the "truth." If you recall: HE TOLD YOU ABOUT KATRINA and yet the lemmings on this site did nothing to protect the levies.

Look, mock me all you want, when Chris cuts your house in half-- you will then say" boy was I smoking crack" for not listening to Hurricane Chris.
Good idea, it late and anything out there can certainly wait 'till tomorrow. Catch everyone later!
This is the title of his current blog:

Chris is Nuts!!

Should read:

I am Nuts!!

LOL
Thx JP as long as they stay weak I'll be happy...be here to stay updated
"HurricaneChris....are you in love with STORMTOP; its ok we wont judge you"

No. However, I respect the man's ability to speak the "truth." If you recall: HE TOLD YOU ABOUT KATRINA and yet the lemmings on this site did nothing to protect the levies.

Look, mock me all you want, when Chris cuts your house in half-- you will then say" boy was I smoking crack" for not listening to Hurricane Chris.

no actually when u wake up in the morning and realize chris is gone then youll be saying boy i was smoking crack.
I"m going to bed also see ya'll tomorrow
"Good idea, it late and anything out there can certainly wait 'till tomorrow. Catch everyone later!"

Yeah, me too. I'll catch you future Chris victims tomorrow as I have to stock up on non-Perishable goods.
Agreed guygee, I don't see it. Not very impressive on microwave loop either. Just noticing different sites are giving info on him again & the symbol back on the probibilities map. Guess we gotta wait for the 2:05am discussion.
588. Alec
STORMTOP if I recall correctly, has FREQUENTLY told people on here they were on crack.....
if anybodys on crack its stormtop.dude crack kills.
"how did you expect the people on here to protect the levies"

One last thing:

I would expect you guys to get off your computer and start putting sand bags on those levies.

However, I do realize that Katrina'a 150 mph winds may have "inhibited" your ability to work efficiently, nonetheless, the gesture would have been meaningful.

Lo and behold, you are doing it again by mocking Chris.

Withing 48 hours, STORMTOP weather station will reign supreme.

Good Night, sir.
Skye - I certainly do not rule out that the remnants could reform, but the convection is dieing off tonight just at the time is should be firing up. Also looks like the Gulf ULL, though weakening some, is having more influence pulling the convection northwest now. If anything important happens, it certainly won't be tonight.

Have a good night!
Posted By: HurricaneChris at 5:45 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
"how did you expect the people on here to protect the levies"

One last thing:

I would expect you guys to get off your computer and start putting sand bags on those levies.

However, I do realize that Katrina'a 150 mph winds may have "inhibited" your ability to work efficiently, nonetheless, the gesture would have been meaningful.

Lo and behold, you are doing it again by mocking Chris.

Withing 48 hours, STORMTOP weather station will reign supreme.

Good Night, sir.


Well, even if he exists, I am safe from Chris unless he is moving at 100 mph... Oh, you, not we, are on crack.
I found what I think is left of Chris spinning off to west at 20.6N 82.1W in http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.htmlLink not much mor than a mist
594. Alec
Posted By: HurricaneChris at 5:45 AM GMT on August 06, 2006.
"how did you expect the people on here to protect the levies"

One last thing:

I would expect you guys to get off your computer and start putting sand bags on those levies.


We dont have levies here in Tampa Bay btw!
ok STORMTOP
night
597. Alec
I say this place is more like stepping up into a circus! ROFL!!!!!
i guess i should board up my windows right STORMTOP
now now childern you guys are getting cranky! nap time hahahha
guess Chris' left overs will be here or near to Pensacola in 24 to 36 hours?
btw stormtop katrina didnt have 150mph winds she had 125mph winds
602. Alec
I say we tell the president to issue Executive order 7044 declaring "The entire United States to sandbag and build nuke shelters"..........ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chris is still there?!

These ULLs make for some bad weather by themselves. Two tornados touched down north of here yesterday. Yesterday also I was shutting my gate and lightening struck nearby I think around 50 ft away or less Besides almost scaring the poop out of me I actually felt a weird current feeling in my chest. Indescribable - It was like on the inside. Thats never happened and Ive had it strike close before. Very scary.

I remember school drills for nuclear blast,just get under your desk and curl up in a ball. Man I wish I had one of those desk. Wonder if the military issues those?
605. Alec
JFL, I had that happen to me as well a few times.....jolts you out of your senses! Almost fainted the sound was deftening.....
g'night
I remember school drills for nuclear blast,just get under your desk and curl up in a ball. Man I wish I had one of those desk. Wonder if the military issues those days.

I remember them to and I was on a military base! We even had to huddle against a wall. Funny now but scarry then.
Poor STORMTOP. Probably can't sleep, keeps hearing ya'll call his name...
609. Alec
under your desk and curl in a ball??? Like that would mean a thing if a million degree celsius ball of heat radially detonated with winds over 1000mph?.......weird concept...but sure was a scary time during the cold war!
Duck and Cover drills
I never felt it that was wild I dont care who gets in Im never shutting that thing in a storm again. Ill wait in the car if Im locked out!
If I remember correctly I had a friend whos father dug a bomb shelter in the back yard. Not on base of course but he did it. Strange times then, real strange.
613. Alec
It all rested in the hands of JFK and Khrushchev in 1962! Whether humanity would be wiped out! Sure glad we didnt have WWIII end it all.....
614. Alec
according to some Chris might do it..................Off to bed, night all=)
Plenty more to the story then. However we transfered all over the world. Everywhere every base and town was doing the same thing in the US. Yes I am glad it did not happen. We all are. Yet a school desk to save you is a little strange. Even as a child I thought that was dumb.
Welcome BayouKing
10W.NONAME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

A NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR
11N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.
ONE BIG BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EXISTS FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W
AND 41W. ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE SWIRLING
AROUND THE ITCZ.


My thoughts on this wave...

This system is hardly moving at all still centered at 10.5/31.5/32. The overall MLC/LLC has sharpen over the lst 12 hours. Instead of covering 8 to 10 degrees it covers about 5 degrees. Convection is starting to focus over the center of the low pressure area. Which means that it could be starting to close off. Outflow looks very good and inflow looks good. To the north of the system looks to be SAL but this system looks to be doing good also Quickscats show the western part of the system...Which shows there is a northly and westly wind(Also eastly)So this thing likely is developing a LLC. Once convection fires over the center expect i expect maybe some slow development. goodnight guys be back tommorow. adrian


THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA YESTERDAY NOW IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N89W
28N92W 30N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...HAVING MOVED FROM CUBA
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS MOVING FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY NOTHING BUT DRY AIR NEAR 14N76W.
DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 18N. LOW CLOUDS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY HINT AT SOME FORM OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N.

Well since it looks like we are not going to have to worry about any hurricanes for the moment, nows a good time to prepair for when one finally does arrive.

Emergency food pyramid (750KB) is a good place to begin. By Ohio State University.
We got Invest 91L! Navy puts it at 25 kts and 1009 mb.

Morning Quake, I was admiring that when I got up. Haven't been to the Navy Site yet, alot of dust in the area though.
c'mon magical African fairy dust..... sprinkle that area Lol
1012mb last night, so it is getting stronger.
NRL hurricane site on 91L

Just in case anyone needs it :)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060901
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Here comes Debby! I say we have TD 4 in 24-48 hours.
And, of course, we could see a resurgence of Chris if the conditions want to improve for redevelopment...it really wouldn't surprise me to see that. It has done all kinds of crazy things already, even back when it was just an invest for the longest time.
Ought to see a good number of Antilles Residents today, checking in! Hopefully people keep things in check and don't blow it out of proportion.
Antillies that is.
First Visible Sneak, alot of dust to it's north
The center of degraded Chris is just now entering the open water north of Cuba.
This must be the lull before the storm!
640. IKE
Per this mornings San Juan discussion....Development of a well established monsoonal trough from West Coast of
Africa generally along 11-12n and now extending to 55w...is in my
view best organization of this feature across the Atlantic since 1995.
Any tropical development out of this synoptic pattern across the
tropical Atlantic will occur within the trough...and satellite imagery this
morning suggests the trough separating into vortices...one along
the approaching wave near 10n 53.5w and the other a more elongated
circulation between 29 and 40w. This latter looking more organized
overnight per satellite imagery and NHC now running numerical guidance
on it. So there is some potential for tropical development in the
next several days...but strong Atlantic high pressure ridge is
forecast...and should keep any system moving into our local
neighborhood...to the south of the local area...and on steady west-northwest
motion.

Chris is history....I think. I hope. Sick of tracking it.
Link

In this link, you can see that the remnants of Chris are leaving behind cooler waters and will be entering warmer waters.
ok so where is remnants of Chris at in relation to radar and floater 1?
Chris is near 81.5 and 23.2 just off the north coast of Cuba.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS...IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
"ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED"
Anyone know what are we looking at for good ol' shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean this week and next?
Invest 91L:



ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH
.

Wind shear and other stuff here.
Lots of dry air to the north:

648. SLU
goodmorning

Invest 91L looks quite strong already .... 1009mb, 30mph. Looking at the early model runs, it may very well come west afterall. The general idea is that in this part of the Atlantic, the slower moving a system is, the more likely it will recurve and this one is only moving at 10mph so we will have to wait and see.

The center appears to be near 11n 34w at 8am and that is in the SE side of the deepest convection. The system looks well organised and it getting stronger so a tropical depression may form in the next 24hours.
The GFS has a tropical system (fish storm) developing around 30N, 40W. Link (it should be noted that it does not develop Invest 91L). Both can bee seen here.
650. SLU
the GFS is having some serious problems initialising the systems in the Atlantic .. it has been so for the past week or so

therefore i'm not putting too much wait on it yet
New invest is up...I expect slow development in the next couple of days.GFDL has it moving NW clearing the Islands,other models have no idea what is going on in the atmosphere.I'll be back this afternoon. Adrian
Any changes that 91L affect Puerto Rico in the upcoming days????
Thanks
I haven't given up on chris just yet. There is still a good chance That it will regenrate in the gulf. As it does so the trough will come through on Monday and drag it northward. It could pass over the loop current edy and bomb. Anything with the words Tropical and Gulf of Mexico should not be discounted especially in august.
There are a number of contributors on this blog that do know what they are talking about and do it in a rational way. There are others that seem to delight in making wild predictions and then patting themselves on the back if they get 1 out of 100 even close to right. Like all blogs, it attracts people who don't have a life and want to get attention by acting like jerks. I am 70 years old, have seen many different weather systems come and go. Being a retired mechanical engineer, I was used to working with math which is a fairly exact science. Weather is the exact opposite which is probably why it fascinates me. I used to chase tornados in a car as soon as I got my drivers license in Nebraska and lived in Los Angeles and Bakersfield, CA so had my share of earthquakes. I now live in Florida and am fascinated by the tropical systems, but have already seen enough of them up close and personal. Thanks to all of you who do contribute your knowledge and skills to this site. I may give a very unskilled opinion from time to time, but it is just that, unskilled. I can read maps and understand data, but do not have the knowledge to combine all the variables into anything that I would consider real accurate.
By the way, the Army Corp of Engineers are now re-enforcing the NO levies with a series of stone tablets containing weather predictions which were produced in their area. It is hoped the tablets will do more good against the elements than the writing on them has done to date. (sorry ST, just couldn't resist that)
655. SLU
REFILL

it is way to early to say what this system will do so just keep an eye on it for now
Thanks SLU...I will keep and eye on it..
Goofoff,
These guys were great last year when I was in Mexico. I was on my honeymoon and spent 2 days in a Mexican hurricane shelter because Emily decided to hit the resort we were staying in near Playa del Carmen. Some of the predictions get a little ridiculous but oh well they are fun to read. Last year many of the so called amateurs on here got their predictions right on. Including Stormtop. I don't know where good old Lefty went but he was another. Where in Florida do you reside?
Giid Morning....SLU u saw this:

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.
Hey did anyone notice the big blob in the southern gulf
look at this storm the outflow is as large as the GOM and it continues to get better orgenized
661. PBG00
mornin all..Jupiter, lefty is back..said he wont be on unless a storm threatens
Thundercloud01221991 so are you try to kill dr M blog? dont you think thats a littl to big
665. PBG00
Taz!!!YOU CRUSHED THE MARGINS!!!
Jupiter, lefty will be in and out, but I think he has resorted to his own blog. He was in for a while for Chris.

So now we have 91L, it seems to look pretty good, and the GFDL is developing it. We will have to wait and see, although it seems to have a pretty good shot of developing.

StormJunkie.com-Forecastmodels, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
667. SLU
yeah i did ... and it is moving into an extremely low shear environment
"Thundercloud01221991 so are you try to kill dr M blog? dont you think thats a littl to big"

what do you mean
PBG00 hey hey i not the one thats try to kill dr M blog with a photo like there i this post some maps for evere one to see
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 8:13 AM CDT on August 06, 2006.
oops forgot the picture


What in the world is that supposed to be?!

Everybody, spam this post so the blog goes back to normal (or post until it goes to a new page).
Please spam ThunderClouds post at 1:14GMT. The picture is too wide and it has stretched the blog.

No offense Thunder, but that picture was excessive. Please spam it if you don't mind :)

Thundercloud01221991 well this look how the blog is now when you put that photo on there it too big
673. PBG00
sorry taz..thought that picture was part of your group..my apologies
I must have missed him. With the looks of the Atlantic right now I'm sure he will be on in a week or so.
Oh, David, you forgot this map (perhaps one of the most important):

It is not turning up large on my computer just 720x480 the size of all my other pictures
Nice picture!
8:45amEDT -Tropical Low CATL, is now Tropical Invest 91L...
30mph
1009mbar




Water Vapour Imagery
MichaelSTL oooooops
Here is it correctly hopefully

wow 456 that could be come a td today
By the way, I don't use the image button when posting images (too complicated - way too much stuff to put in); it is far easier to type in (img src="URL" width=640); width is used for larger images.
The good news from 91L is the further it develops, the more it moves north and out to sea (hopefully).

Weather resizes images that a larger than 640px width. So you can post a large image, and it will show resized to 640px.....

I posted a wind shear map yesterday from CMISS site and it was automatically resize to 640px width, when it showed up on the blog.
Weather Underground*
If images are resized, then how did the super large image get in here? Also, I can post images larger than 640 pixels (for me, images are not too big until they get to 800 or more in width).
wow, looks like we will have our next depression by tonight. how come some people think it will move right out to sea?
Jupiter, I am a little north of you in Port St. Lucie. My folks retired down to this area in the middle '70s, but my wife and I didn't move here until 1999.
Hey did anyone notice the big blob in the southern gulf

I noticed and I'm keeping my eye on that one.
PLEASE SPAM THUNDERCLOUDS 1:14 POST.

It is causing the blog to be stretched. It was an accident, but we have the power to correct it. 5 spams and it goes away.

You have to scroll to the right to find the spam button for those that do not understand.

Thanks :)


Invest 91L is near the bottom and a possible second developing system is near the top (the GFS only cares about the latter).
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:33 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
If images are resized, then how did the super large image get in here? Also, I can post images larger than 640 pixels (for me, images are not too big until they get to 800 or more in width).


Maybe they dont work for everyone, but seems to be happening to me.
Instead of spamming it, we can just post until a new page comes up.
The satellite image I just posted is 720x640 (I left width=640 out on purpose to see if it would be resized).
it seems like we are rounding the corner of the so called "worse than 2005 hurricane season". we might have a lot to talk about in the next few months.
Wait I thought 91L was under the influence of High Pressure? Shouldn't it continue WNW?
yeah, wouldnt it ride the high?
FLw, that just goes to show how much we know about this time of year. We could go through all of August without a cane, but then we could have 10 in September and October. I will breathe a little easier when the season is over.
yeah, i dont think they should have lowered those predicted numbers just yet. when i saw that i noticed that everyone was relieved. that could be false information, and take everyone off guard.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:42 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
FLw, that just goes to show how much we know about this time of year. We could go through all of August without a cane, but then we could have 10 in September and October. I will breathe a little easier when the season is over.

Isn't that the truth.....Good Morning.
*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by SAINTHURRIFAN at: 9:41 AM EDT on August 06, 2006

TAZ THANKS AGAIN FOR JAMMING THE SCREEN AGAIN YOUR EXACT POST TIME
1:14 GMT ANOTHER PICTURE ITS STRANGE I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH ANYOTHER PERSONS LINKS BUT YOURS
YOUR BLOG IS THE SAME WAY I RECIEVED 8 EMAILS AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH OTHERS WITH THE SAME PROBLEM TELL ME THIS HOW DO I DELETE YOUR POST SO THEY DONT JAM UP OUR COMPUTERS BECAUSE YOU WILL NOT KEEP THE PICS ON YOUR BLOG ASKING NICELY REPEATEDLY DOES NO GOOD ADRIANEMAILED ME AND SAID HE SEES THE PROBLEM AND IF IT CONTINUES THEY WILL STOP ALL LINKS PLAIN ENGLISH WE HAVE DIAL UP NO CHOICE NO PROBLEM WITH YOUR TYPED MESSAGES PLEASE IM TRYING TO NICE AGAIN IT IS THE LORDS DAY STOP THE PICS



what is he talking about commtes any one?
I don't see a problem with lowering the numbers, just saying that anyhting is possible, and that no one should let there guard down just because the season seems slower then last year.

SJ
yeah but i noticed when they lowered the numbers, people throughout my neighborhood were like, o good we have nothing to worry about now, or, wow this season was a dud.
StormJunkie...Yeah, I was thinking a larger drop in predicted storms actually. I was surprised at the conservative reduction. Two weeks from now though I can be eating that statement.
here is the tracking map for 91L as of 8:45amEDT

i am not JAMMING up any thing
707. SLU
91L is not as well organised as we think it is because the center is about 50 - 60 miles or more from the deepest convection.
Mornin' All,

GFDL has 91l as a cat 1 in 90 hours. Here we go again!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


B
Oh, good, a new page so that big picture is gone (unless you are not on showing 50 comments).
Weather456...Morning. Can you tell me why I keep hearing that the SAL mess has cleared out? I look at the chart and I still see a mess? Am I not reading this right?


I have a question when a storm develops it needs deep hot water so when it crosses the Mid Atlantic Ridge will it loss strength
MichaelSTL neeed your help on my blog
GFDL has 91l as a cat 1 in 90 hours. Here we go again!

Actually, it has it as a tropical storm (read the note in the lower left corner); you have to reduce the winds, typically by around 20% (multiply by .8).
I dont have a problem with numbers....

They did it 2004, and they lived to regret it Decemeber 1 2004......

So if they lowered it to 15 named storm, lets hope thier right.

This is 2004

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing mild El Nino conditions, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3.Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 90% probability of above-to-near normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.

The season ended up with 16 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes, placing it well above all forecasts.
It does not really need to be that deep thunder.
MichaelSTL,

Gotcha.

B
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:54 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
Weather456...Morning. Can you tell me why I keep hearing that the SAL mess has cleared out? I look at the chart and I still see a mess? Am I not reading this right?


You are reading it right. SAL is still there.

But look at this WV Imagery. Isnt showing up to extent as the SAL map.

That map atcually puts 91L south of the dry air.
to the extent*
Morning all! And yes Randrel still very thick and dusty up there.
Weather456....Thanks. I imagine it will die down soon. Just hasn't done it yet. 91L has a lot of that to contend with though. When do you think a TD?
ProgressivePulse...Morning. That's what it looks like to me.
I asked this earlier but no one answered what is with the blob in the lower gulf


The picture is the infere satalite of the gulf


725. SLU
i'll say a TD will form on Monday ... it still has a long way to go as far as its appearance is concerned
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:05 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
Weather456....Thanks. I imagine it will die down soon. Just hasn't done it yet. 91L has a lot of that to contend with though. When do you think a TD?


Well, Conditions are there for it. But it has to organize and fighting the dry air is apart of that organization.

It has become better organized than yesterday. (by NHC)

And already has a low pressure area (1009)

All that being said, maybe around Wednesday-Thursday, unless something drastically changes.
Thunder

Most of the models have been showing some form of developement in the Bay of Campeche monday/tuesday for about a week now.I think even if it does develope it will just be a rainmaker for Texas but it still does bear watching.
Weather456...Sounds reasonable.
It was their last night so the convection is not just like the convection from Cris last night or the convection in the Norther Gulf that continues to fall apart
my computer is slow will somone watch the infered loop and see if their is a coc in southern Gulf
Meteorologist Bob Tarr

What little is left of Chris continues to move through the Florida Straits early Sunday. Chris will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida on Sunday, but the previously well-defined surface circulation has weakened and become very broad. Chris faces rather strong wind shear over the next 48 hours, not to mention the interaction with Cuba. There is a small chance that conditions could become more favorable for Chris to develop in a couple of days, but at this point, chances for development of this system appear marginal at best.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we are tracking tropical waves along 35 west, south of 18 north and along 56 west, south of 17 north and along 94 west, mostly south of 15 north. The wave centered near 35 west has a broad circulation and has shown some signs of an increase in organization. This wave is moving very slowly west and is in a low-shear environment, and some additional slow strengthening is likely over the next day or two.
Thundercloud01221991 - why dont you use "preview" b4 you post pictures like that that screw up margins and for ones that dont work??? Thats why its there damn it. freakin n00bs
by the way here is the probability so far this year of cyclone development in the Tropical Atlantic it is scyrocketing
by the way here is the probability so far this year of cyclone development in the Tropical Atlantic it is scyrocketing


Thunder I don't see anything just a large mass of convection.

Link
yea..like the 2nd to last pic u posted doesnt work. go back a page to 14 and look at how you stretched the margin AND with a pic that looks like nothing.
learn how to use functions and maybe upgrade your slow computer too...
mornin everybody..... the day of the briskyard! :)

anybody notice the feature in the straights....

alsmost appears a surface low "trying" to develop....

anybody?
jp, I think whirlwind is referring to the image on the previous page (if you have the blog on showing 50 comments, they are split up into pages; I always have it on this setting, especially in this blog).
where is it messing up the margins it isnt messing up any margins on my computer
morning Gulfscotsman... whats up
brickyard too! LOL
This is what Thunder is trying to post



BTW, don't use the image button; use (img src="address of image here" width=640)
Good find mores. Have a good day.
91L looks like it has some really strong convection pulsing now! As for the gulf I don't see a whole lot there....but who knows what 'chris' is gonna try and do. Or re-do for that matter
I gotta go psycho... theres a reason the preview is there for, esp with posting pics.

Anyhow the real race is Formula 1....
thelmores

Watch that in motion there is nothing there.
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:15 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
Weather456...Sounds reasonable.


Yes it sounds resonable....but I dont like it....

The further it stays undevelop, the more it moves west. Right now the NHC says slow development, and the models move it wnw....
752. SEFL
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 2:25 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
by the way here is the probability so far this year of cyclone development in the Tropical Atlantic it is scyrocketing

Thundercloud, this is the time of the year that possible formation "skyrockets" It is hurricane season!!
whirlwind..you're next
Thundercloud, this is the time of the year that possible formation "skyrockets" It is hurricane season!!

Look at the graph I posted; it is about 3 times higher than normal (the thick black line marked climatological). Let's see... 8 storms (normal for after August) * 3 = 24 storms.
756. KRL
Hot and sunny here in South Florida this morning.

91L is way too early to start the predictions. LOL
Weather456....I don't "like" it either. Unfortunately 91L will be dragged towards you for awhile. Just a lot of dry air on the north side again. Looks like a larger plume than Chris had to deal with.
forget email, if you cant use preview and fix the problem b4 it gets posted, you deserve to get owned infront of others..


Na..nascar is too boring. Going around in circles, a monkey can do that. No skill involved, F1 is road tracks where 0.001 counts...
whirlwind..you're next- next with what, I thought Gulfscotsman took care of you yesterday? oh well
10:15amAST - Tropical Invest 91L, continues west.
Development not expected soon.

Posted By: Randrewl at 10:34 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
Weather456....I don't "like" it either. Unfortunately 91L will be dragged towards you for awhile. Just a lot of dry air on the north side again. Looks like a larger plume than Chris had to deal with.


Yes thats true.....

Now the question is: How long will the dust be there?

I can be gone in a matter of days.
In my area there was a gust to 25 mph.. I live in south broward...that wind is due to Chris
Actually, the wind is due to High Pressure to your North and Low Pressure(Ghost of Chris) to your South. Its the pressure gradient.
764. SLU
456 ...... why do u think development is not going to happen soon?
The water vapor loop at the NRL site of West Africa, shows the dry air moving west, out ahead of the wave.
Posted By: SLU at 10:41 AM AST on August 06, 2006.
456 ...... why do u think development is not going to happen soon?


Its organization, while conditions are ripe, it has to organize a little better.
"thelmores

Watch that in motion there is nothing there."

if you look at the 1km visible, and zoom in.....
here..... put the visible in motion.....



you are right...... nothing there.....yet! LOL
Hey, don't make fun of thelmores swirl. That is Stormtops monster in the making!..LOL
In case you do not remember I am autistic and I do not like swearing, fighting and yelling ex when my dad is upset or is not happy I will stay in my roon the entire day even if he is not upset with me if you want to know more here is a Link please stop the yelling and swearing and fighting I do not like to be called psyco I get called it enough at school
LOL!
771. SLU
Well the system has been able to mix out the dry air quite easily so i believe a new TD will form by Monday
thanks 03.... i feel lots better now! LOL

If F1 is so great, why is one or more of the F1 drivers, and indy car drivers looking at Nextel cup????

and for those that say there is no skill in nascar.... rediculous! it is the "most competitive" racing series in the world!

oh, sorry.... forgot this was a weather blog! will refrain from further asides! :)
I hope it rains here today.....
Can someone post a picture of all three tropical cylones in the pacific
776. SLU
it has also picked up speed .. it is now moving at about 15mph according to my calculations and this means that there is now a greater chance that it will come further west and not recurve
SLU thats true...

This is as of today:

Wind Shear - 10% of a factor
Low Pressures in the area - 10% of a factor
Dry air - 35% of a factor
SST - 10% of a factor
HurricaneRoman:

thelmores- wow, you got to be kiddin... nascar $300,000 piece of crap, no handling,etc, vs a $2.5 million engineering masterpiece.
Please read around b4 posting nonsense like that again, thanks


didnt know you were retarded, that explains your mistakes...ok i got it
thelmores- Montoya is back to nascar because hes too slow and screwed up the last race with his teammate when he hit him. Thats why...

back to weather..
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
Can you tell me why I keep hearing that the SAL mess has cleared out? I look at the chart and I still see a mess? Am I not reading this right?

Good Morning all. Is it just me, or is that CIMMS SAL Analysis just goofy. I mean, wow, that is a very deep "Saharan Air Layer" off the coast of CALIFORNIA. I assume this analysis is just showing dry air, and is not distinguishing between the true dust-laden Saharan Air Layer and drying of the atmosphere due to descending air, right? Besides looking at the WV loops, does anyone here think we get a better picture of the location of Saharan dust from the NAAPS optical depth/aerosol concentration measurements?
Lol. This blog should be entitled 'fight club' lol
Good morning guys! Had to take a couple of days worth of break from the blogging for my husbandly duties. Chris is no more, but what are your thoughts on 91L? GFDL seems to be the only one developing this into anything worth mentioning.
Who do so many NASCAR fans mispell the word "ridiculous"?
Every Single hour it stays undevelop the higher it reaches the C'bbean Sea....

Now the Caribbean sea is not the place to put a wave right now...

No Wind shear
No dry air
Warm SST up to 80F

Its better for every one if strenghtens now and recurve...so we can enjoy it while not affecting anyone.

thanks weather456...... hopefully we won't have 3 potential hurricanes all at once
The ULL north of Hispanola really seems to be dug in. Even if 91L does develope something is going to have to move the ULL or nothing is going to get through it. It has been supposedly drifting west for about a week now.
Posted By: whirlwind at 2:49 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
thelmores- wow, you got to be kiddin... nascar $300,000 piece of crap, no handling,etc, vs a $2.5 million engineering masterpiece.
Please read around b4 posting nonsense like that again, thanks


didnt know you were retarded, that explains your mistakes...ok i got it


Im sorry that R word is the worst word in the English language DO NOT use it around me
Intensity from SSD:

06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
You can fight all you want about auto racing...
MOTO GP is where it's at!!!
Valentino Ross will probably be the next great F1 racecar driver after he gets too old to ride the bikes!
whirlwind, i watch F1 regularly..... i ust simply stated that nextel cup is "the most COMPETITIVE racing series in the world!"

didn't say it was the fanciest! i'm not much on the "wine and cheese" crowd, guess it's ok to call me a redneck if you'd like! :)

one of the "largest" crowds F1 has had this year was at indy.... and it will be DWARFED by todays race! ;)

ok, i swear, no more race comments! LOL
Well enjoy the day guys. Get outside and enjoy the wonderful weather! The tropics will be there tomorrow:) Oh and dont watch NASCAR, its boring!!..LOL
Must be slow. We're talking about NASCAR.
Thelmores you are a Redneck? Really?..LOL
guygee, I have questins about the SAL analysis as well; for example, this map says that it extends all the way to the West Pacific which seems unlikely.
Barkeep1967...That ULL is forecast to move west over south Florida on Thursday and Friday. Whether it does or not......
That was kind of mean whirlwind
"Thelmores you are a Redneck? Really?..LOL"

is there a problem with that? LOL
Posted By: KYhomeboy at 2:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
Lol. This blog should be entitled 'fight club' lol


LOL..
LOL..We will talk about that another day.
802. SLU
so true STL

this means that the wave is very close to a TD

T2.0/2.0 and we have a new TD
Good morning 456, weatherguy03. How are y'all this glorious Sunday?
03 - What is your opinion on using the CIMMS SAL analysis vs. the NAAPS aerosol concentration measurements to detect true Saharan Air (my question above)
Hey there JP.
Barkeep1967...That ULL is forecast to move west over south Florida on Thursday and Friday. Whether it does or not......


Thats kind of what I am getting at. It was supposed to be gone already. I just watched a 12 hour loop and it has not moved 10 miles.
Oh thats right NASCAR is a sophisticated sport now..LOL Thats why they put out the movie Talladaga Nights.
if we keep talkin about NASCAR, im gonna have to invite my hillbilly friends to help me...

So, it looks like we might have Debby in a couple of days. I'm glad. At this rate, we'll be talking about the different patterns of paint chips and then I'd have to hang myself:-)
I am proud of my redneck heritage! LOL

jp, you don't "have" to be a redneck..... but it helps! LOL
I like the NAAPS better. The CIMMS SAL analysis is showing, I think more of the dry air and not the dust.
There is an important difference between Saharan air and plain old dry air; the dust can prevent rain from forming, according to Wikipedia:

Findings to date indicate that the iron-rich dust particles which often occur within the SAL reflect solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. They also tend to increase condensation, but not precipitation as the drops formed are too small to fall and tend not to readily coelesce. The SAL has also been observed to suppress the development of tropical cyclones.
Thanks again 03 for your reply. I was thinking the same, but I needed a sanity check on that one;)
Good job Michael. Well, GTG. Take care. Enjoy the race:)
Good Morning Everyone. I'm new here. I enjoy reading the entries and do find all your remarks informative, interesting and humorous. Can someone please provide an update on what's going on in the tropics. I see that Chris seemed to have fizzled out. Any chance of him making come back?
3 hurricanes at the same time? that would be interesting....

the CMC keeps predicting the same storm for days, only that is backed off on intensity now
Dr. Masters has a new blog up on the central Atlantic wave.
For those of you in and around the Tampa Bay area, there is a very cool new exhibit at the Museum of Science and Industry called "Disasterville". It has interactive activities for hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and earthquakes. I believe it is the brainchild of Bay News 9 and it actually allows you to track a mock hurricane approaching the bay area as a forecaster, scientist, and "go on the air" with the green screen behind you and give the Tropical Update.


WHATS THATS???? TS GUPPY! LOL
Thundercloud01221991
Hang in there, Buddy-- you're doing fine. Lots of folks with similar challenges understand your frustrations. I've noticed, though, that most offenders either don't know or don't remember the problem-- it's accidental instead of intentional so gotta give them the benefit and shrug ot off. Others are insensitive and even malicious jerks-- the kind who torture kittens, etc.

Having read a lot of whirlwind's posts, I suspect he didn't know about your situation and was being himself--informed and cutting to the chase, the feelings of others not being high on his screen, He ain't a bad guy...

Hang in and learn with most of the rest of us... it's fun.
823. SLU
NEW BLOG!
MichaelSTL - Thank you for that elaboration, that is why I wanted to get a better picture of the true Saharan Air, rather than just the dry air. I've read that another factor is that the dust particles are not hygroscopic, so they do not as readily serve as condensation nuclei.
Whirlwind, I've learned something never depend on the models for showing you if a storm is to develop b/c it has done very poorly this year and basically all the models were predicting something forming off the African coast and now only one predicts something forming. If I'm not mistaken last week one of the models even had two storms developing last week.
Dr. Jeff has anew blog...