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The cold water wake of Dean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on August 27, 2007

A westward-moving tropical wave is kicking up some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean, between Colombia and Jamaica. This area has a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no circulation at the surface, as seen in the 7:21am EDT QuikSCAT pass. The wave is under 10-20 knots of wind shear, and could undergo some slow development. None of the reliable models are predicting that this system will develop into a tropical depression, but it could bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of the four reliable forecast models for forecasting the genesis of tropical cyclones, only one--the UKMET--is now calling for formation of a tropical depression late this week off the coast of Africa. There are some active tropical waves that will start pushing off the African coast later this week, and we'll have to watch this region for development.

Heavy thunderstorm activity off the Virginia coast is associated with an old frontal boundary. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forming here and is expected to move off to the northeast. This low could become tropical if the shear relaxes from its current 20-30 knots.

First snow of the season
Fall is fast approaching, as evidenced by the first snow of the season in the Colorado Rockies. Snow fell Friday on mountain peaks above 12,000 feet. Late August snow is not unusual for the Rockies. Ski season is still 70 days away, though!


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from normal for Sunday, August 26, 2007. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

Hurricane Dean's wake
Hurricane Dean's passage will be remembered not only by the people it affected, but by the ocean itself. A large, powerful storm like Dean generates a tremendous amount of mixing of the ocean, which brings up deep, cold water to the surface. Dean's passage cooled off the Gulf of Mexico waters near the Yucatan Peninsula by up to 3 degrees C (5.6 degrees F). The western Caribbean was not as strongly affected, since there is a much deeper layer of warm water there, thanks to the presence of the warm Loop Current. The cold water anomaly left by Dean will take several weeks to dissipate.

I'll have an update on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JLPR
well sleep time
goodnight everyone
:P
lets see how that catl low is looking tomorrow
this says are 1012mb low is now 1011mb low


Link
Interesting. Notice the big high pressure draped W over the SE US and that CATL low moving W. A Dean type scenario

Convection expanding N of the 10 degree line now right near the low center. Small now but an indication that the low is trying to consolidate ( didn't realise the other image auto updated )
Being slung over it's right shoulder into GOM

Link
So kman you think this thing is going to develop now
Well I am out for tonight. Will chat tomorrow

gnite all
508. KRL
LR
Miami

It has a chance to develop as any low in the ATL does in late August but as I said in my e mail perhaps not very quickly. Improved appearance in convection is always expected in the late night to early morning hours usually followed by some tapering off or weakening during the heat of the day. The surface forecast map to the 29th still shows it as a low so the NHC are also not expecting rapid development at this time.

Remember though we are approaching the peak of the season and anything can happen at relatively short notice.
Kman, Re: CATL wave.
Does not look like a lot to look at til the Leewards. Avoid alliteration always.
Good chance at a recurve right before.

May have to start looking at CONUS trofs upstream on this go round if it gets into the Eastern Caribbean. Not a player for Dean. Far enough S maybe to miss a few/miss a recurve.




Alliteration eh ?

English teacher perhaps ? LOL
I am sorry, but I still do not trust that map. The GFS has been throwing systems off the coast for a long time now, each time around 7-9 days out, brining them close to the US. I think all we can really come to a conclusion is that waves should be on the increase. Exact storms, we cant say.
Agree when in peak season and favorable year things will pop-up quickly. I would like to think blogs like this would pick them up early. meaning if online would get alerted hours before models, mets and even NHC is willing to mention.
SORRY, OFF TOPIC, but does anyone know the time the lunar eclips will start tonight? Online I read 4:51am EST, but our local met said 5:51. that hour of sleep will make a difference. I really want to catch it.
Kman,
Close, I sleep w/one, or will be soon.
G'nite friend.
centex - that wave around 35 -40W has been kicked around this thread for the last several days. It just hasn't been all that exciting enough to become an Invest.

and I am happy to wishcast it to stay that way.
The European model now has a wave, with a low pressure, coming off the coast of africa in 72 hours, traversing the Atlantic and ending up just north of the islands at 240 hrs out, Sept 6th. This, the GFS does not have holding together, however the second wave the GFS does hold together is also picked up by the European.

This means the two BEST world models are picking up on a system at the same time. Will have to see in the morning if the European holds on to both systems. Last time this happened (2 days ago), the systems were dropped by the next model run. Something to keep an eye on.

And just so you know, the European did not have a closed low for Dean either this far out in the future.
DEAN was a huge storm. It came within 200 miles of my boat and I wouldn't want to get any closer. I saw 48 hours of wind with it peaking the second day at 40 knots briefly.
Msphar - I'm maybe foolishly talking about the wave in central Carib. 80w. This is the wave forecasted to track into Nig/Hon. Best I can tell it;s being pulled NW "...A TUTT LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS". I'm just saying if this tracks NW because of TUTT pullinb it over it's right soulder this thing could have a chance to dev. previously I posted a link to wv loop which is making me wonder.
Centex - I tend to lose interest in anything West of 66W. However I noticed the SW Car wave thing moving NW earlier this evening. It looked like it could move into the GOM after a brief encounter with the Yucatan.
Yes, I have to agree. It definately is not moving just west, I would say WNW. I still think the center of circulation (if you could say there is one) will go over N/Hon. However, at its current path it will move back over water quickly. If the ULL continues to pull it north, there could be issues.

Currently convection is very weak, and I wouldnt expect any development. Should the center move back over water after going onto land, it could be possible. I dont think it will have much time to develop, even if it does come back over the water, before going into the Yucatan.
msphar - nice when the east and 3rd coasters can get along. Not always been the case lately.
The new GFS agrees with the path I just stated for the Caribbean swirl.

As for the Catl, still does not form it into a depression.
the night shift is my favorite time. the people seem more mature. I'm a left coaster with a strong focus upwind of 18N/65W. I agree nice to be civil.
All the young'ns go to bed.

Just if StormW was on at night too.
Well, the GFS does keep the Catl wave south now, into the center/northern islands 78 hours out. Before it was ripping it to shreads, now it is keeping it together. Maybe a sign of possible organization.
Storm does a journeyman job. I really appreciate his willingness to share. I am on his mail list. There are a lot of other great contributors as well.
Bummer dude, I'd like to see it dissipate.
Yes, I am impressed with how willing he is to deal with people on the blog. Sometimes you just have to ignore what people say, it can get humourous sometimes.

For instance, this Catl wave being the 'best one of the season.' Gave me a good laugh. I just wish people would stop using the 'rainbow' sat pictures, they make the systems look much stronger than they really are.
I learned the real REACH of this BLOG when I called my sister in St.Thomas to tell her to watch DEAN.. she told me her boss was reading the latest new on WeatherUnderground and wanted her husband to put her hurricane shutters up. Now we know where it went, but they were ready and prepared because of this blog. I don't even watch the TROPICAL UPDATES anymore.. if there is something I need to know.. I already know it..
I just wish people would stop using the 'rainbow' sat pictures, they make the systems look much stronger than they really are.

I don't really like them either because the color scale doesn't provide much contrast between weak and strong convection (the best scale for this is the Dvorak, which can be used to estimate intensity if you know how to read it, although when looking at IR images I prefer colored images over black and white).
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

Is the wave void of convection and the convection moving NW is totally misleanding because the wave is in the clear sky's and moving west? I still think the TUTT in far west carib is pulling it NW. And the TUTT is moving SW which is perfect for guiding the wave NW not W. Someone tell me why NHC is correct and I'm totally off base.
I think it is a blend of both the NWS and you. I dont think it is moving quite as far north as you think at the moment. I do think it is moving further north than west, but it will still make landfall in the next 6-12 hours. The new GFS actually brings it along the north coast of central america into the Yucatan.
The European and GFS are consistent (with each other) bringing a wave just north of the islands somewhere between 180 and 210 hours out. The European had a low with this wave, the GFS does not. I will be very interested to see what the European comes out with in the morning.
I tend to use the visual loops both day and night. I like the consitency, nothing fancy just the same old view over and over. Its amazing what you can learn in that process.
STL,

Definately agree with you. I have a hard time understanding the Dvorak images, but the NWS color IR is much more representative of the wave convection than the rainbow images. It think some people also forget to look at the visible, which gives an indication when convection is starting to die down when the clouds become less bright.
The only problem is that you are not only looking at a visible image when looking at that loop. Instead, during the night, it changes to an IR image. Visible does not work at night.
sorry sitting in the back and reading....
and yes all the kids are gone hope they have school



Taco :0)
ms23 - Sounds reasonable. It's just that spin ahead of it which has got me wondering. We didn't see that with prev systems crossing carib. Spin is ahead not behind system. Funny how NHC does not even mention it's shifted somewhat north and means maybe Yucatan and god forbid southern GOM.
The convection is holding with the Caribbean swirl. If it misses the coast, we might have a problem. I think we might just get lucky with that one.

The Catl wave is looking decent. I have been reading up on tropical cyclogenesis, and the main theory seems to be that a second pulse of some sort of mass into a system causes the depression to form. So in other words, an original convective plume creates a small circulation (mesoscale convective vortex), and if a second pulse of wind (mass convergence) arrives within 1-3 days, a depression is possible, if not likely. Could this be what we are seeing happening in the Catl now? I dont know, but its interesting, definately around the center of circulation.
go to my blog eclipse countdown blog!
The new GFS does not look pretty. Lets hope that this new solution is completely wrong! However, it is consistent with the European...
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/LEmono/TLE2007Aug28/image/TLE2007Aug28-CDT.GIF

...got my alarm clock set! An ebb tide cause? Would it effect storm surge in a landfalling storm? Several things effect surge (blog topic soon?)



MLCgoodnight4.gif

"Awareness, preparedness and safety" means everything!
Have a good one, all!

MLC<------------out for some shut-eye!
Going out on limb. I think the Nig/Hon coastline is where the stirring current diverg. Above systems stirred N/NW and below W/SW. Thinking our wave taking the high track. Granted the N/NW will only last a day or so than back on westerly track. Out 3 days, who knows, but expect continued west or WNW later. Just not sure how far north TUTT will pull it.
weatherwonderer at 12:56 AM

Thanks for your kind and reasonable response.
I am going to hope your wrong, however, if it does stay over water...its looking good at the moment.

Long term GFS now has 3 systems, one over cuba, on in the central atlantic, and one coming off the african coast at 384hrs.

Looks like the waves should start pouring off the coast soon.
Posted By: centex at 4:34 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.
Funny how NHC does not even mention it's shifted somewhat north

Centex, ya gotta remember... the NHC has a duty to stick to the middle of the road when discussing tropical systems. If they say "no significant development" for 48 hrs", they are usually correct. Folks don't want to wake up w/a Cat5 storm on their doorstep. I believe that's all 99% of the public needs to sleep safe and sound.
On this blog, we are under no such constraints. We can and do say the most outlandish things. A little more "middle of the road" would serve us well sometimes.
For all we know, the folks at the NHC maybe thinking right now "gee, if this CATL thing gets to the Caribbean, we're all gonna die!!" or "OMG this cluster of T-Storms in the SW Caribbean is not moving due West-we're all gonna die!!".
But you can look at the information available to you, evaluate, and make your own choice. If you get out ahead of these "official" statements, take the creds, put on your false modesty and smile and wave. If you're wrong, live and learn-no harm done.
btw-I am not aiming this soft rant at you or anyone else. Just had a little too much spicey food for dinner and needed to vent.
Cheerio!
boobless...werent you going to bed over an hour ago?!

CMC still developing Catl system...but no surprise there.
I agree they need to stay consevative and middle of the road. But havent we all noticed in years past a change in direction, intensity and NHC does not mention. Maybe small but facts are facts and when they ignore facts I wonder what they are thinking. It's like they know what is going on but want to be consistent even if facts starts changing. I just don't agree with that sort of group think.
The NHC does say: WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED


It doesnt say moving over land anymore. So maybe they have, without explicitly saying a movement north, said it?
I agree they need to stay consevative and middle of the road. But havent we all noticed in years past a change in direction, intensity and NHC does not mention. Maybe small but facts are facts and when they ignore facts I wonder what they are thinking. It's like they know what is going on but want to be consistent even if facts starts changing. I just don't agree with that sort of group think.

You know... come to think of it, I've noticed this for years. Quite a bunch of times the NHC says something will only slowly develop, and while that is usually true when the area is first mentioned by the NHC, that is not true when the facts rapidly change in favor of the possible development area. I find it odd that NHC doesn't pay mind to that... and just keep forecasting slow development when something is on the road to rapidly organizing. By the time they catch on, it's already a tropical depression.

Not saying the NHC is dumb or anything, because I am stupid compared to them, I can tell you that. It's just weird to me.
centex, you and KM make a good point. But (always a but) as long as they don't miss the life-threatening things, we are getting our dummied-down moneys worth.

How long in advance of Katrina's land fall did NWS and NHC say "THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM"?
boobless,

As long as I cant smell it, its fine with me.


As for the NHC, they have a very difficult job in trying to balance what is really occuring and not trying to panic people. It makes it very difficult when it comes down to wording. I am sure, in their office, they are thinking much like some of us, only they cant come out publicly (spelling!) and say it.
I was surprised when they wrote that into the text. Was that ever there for Dean?
And miss23 I would agree with your interpretation of NHC-ese.
OK, this room is now contaminated-sneaking back to bed for real.
Nice chattin witcha
Katrina was a lesson, not NHC but FEMA. But I don't think we learned anything other than better be able to take care of yourself.
looks like our little wave at 35 is starting to get some action at this hour interesting
Look at this monster in the West Pacific.

I think it has a good chance.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wcpac/avn-l.jpg

35 is trying
I SEE OUR NEXT MAJOR STORM AT 37.5/10 THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS STORM TO THE FISH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS. ALL SHOULD PERCH THEMSELVES UP HIGH BECAUSE THE BITE OF THIS STORM WILL BE SHARK LIKE. STORMS LIKE THIS MAKE ME CRABBY. AS THE STORM GETS TO THE ISLANDS IT SHOULD BEGIN IT TRECK TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 1 WEEK. THERE WILL BE THOUSANDS OF DEAD FISH. THEN A TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA 9 DAYS FROM NOW WILL BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST.
Posted By: sebastianflorida at 8:07 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

I SEE OUR NEXT MAJOR STORM AT 37.5/10 THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS STORM TO THE FISH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS. ALL SHOULD PERCH THEMSELVES UP HIGH BECAUSE THE BITE OF THIS STORM WILL BE SHARK LIKE. STORMS LIKE THIS MAKE ME CRABBY. AS THE STORM GETS TO THE ISLANDS IT SHOULD BEGIN IT TRECK TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 1 WEEK. THERE WILL BE THOUSANDS OF DEAD FISH. THEN A TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA 9 DAYS FROM NOW WILL BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST.



hmmmmmm

i agreee

hurricane felix?
I think we have 94L right? a new threat for the islands chain!!!
looks like it may be getting organized. Does it look big in width or what?
Off topic: Lunar eclipse is almost total now. Take a look.
My morning tropical synopsis:
Early morning Infared satellite imagery showed shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic near 38 West Longitude or about 975 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands or 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite imagery over the last few hours showed a ball of convection flaring up close to the center of circulation and this is something that will monitored today for signs of further organization and persistance of deep convection. This tropical wave is forecast to continue tracking westward and based on its current speed, it is expected to reach the Windward and Leeward Islands sometime between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning. Looking at the current wind shear analysis, it appears that it is currently under 15 to 20 knots of shear, but it decreases to 10 knots or less of shear west of 50 West Longitude and based on the forecast environmental conditions, it appears that overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for development over the next 36 to 48 hours and then especially after 48 hours. This tropical wave does have the potential to become a tropical depression over the next 2 to 3 days or so and those of you in the Leeward and Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it is forecast to affect the islands sometime between Friday and Sunday. It should be noted that the Canadian and European models develop this system further and none of the models do so. The other models seem to be latching more onto a tropical disturbance now near 20 West Longitude and developing it and eventually ingesting the wave now near 38 West Longitude into its circulation. As for model forecast tracks over the next several days, the Canadian model forecasts a track to the west-northwest and forecasts this system to be located about 100 miles east of Dominica and Martinique on Sunday evening. After that, the Canadian model forecasts this system to possibly affect Puerto Rico next Tuesday and then the Canadian model tracks this system northwestward and north-northwestward to near 28 North, 66 West by next Thursday. The European model forecasts a track into the Leeward Islands on Labor Day and then into Puerto Rico next Tuesday and finally just east of the southeastern Bahamas by next Thursday. I do think, based on the current and forecast environmental conditions and NOT the model forecast, that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical depression within the next 2 to 3 days.

The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, NAM and MM5 models forecast development of some sort of a tropical system off of the US Southeast coast over the next 2 to 3 days. This development stems from a frontal system now located just offshore of the Carolinas. All of the models keep the system offshore of the US Southeast coast, but the MM5, NAM, and NOGAPS models forecast that it will be close enough to the US Southeast coast to be worrysome. Infared satellite imagery early this morning showed some increased convection just offshore of Wilmington, North Carolina. This trend will be monitored closely and I will be monitoring this area very closely for signs of development.
Yeah, looks like something will come from the East Atlantic shortly. Dr.Masters mentioned Dean's water-cooling effect, hopefully this may also have impacted the Western Atlantic a bit also?

I will keep a watch on this, as we in Barbados as usual are out to bat first, even if unlikely to get a 'strike'.
NCEP loses the low within 48 hours. I think Barbados will have little to swing at come the weekend.
Watching an oil painting dry is more eventful than that blob in the middle of the Atlantic.
573. SLU
With all things being equal, we should have invest 94L today. I expect this system to develop but the dry air will keep it slow until about 50W where the water will get warmer. Also, it is a very large system so it should be able to mix out the dry air better than a smaller system.
morning
troplcal disturbance soon to be 94L.
the area at 9N 38W is showing signs of organisation and should be close to TD status within 48hrs. the environment is forecast to be more favourable east of 50W. because of the atrong BH i expect the system to take a similiar track like Dean's and take it into the central windward ialands by sat night. Residents in these islands as well as Barbados shuold closely monitoe this developing situation
For you guys with the salt on the trees. even if there was plenty of rain the surge had not yet subsided there will still be plenty of time for wind to bring the salt a shore. So even those areas with 4-8 inches of rain could have salt out there from persisting winds because those same winds would have guickly dried the suface of the trees to allow for salt to collect.
good morning SLU it has been a while. talk to you later off to work. i suspeCt that SLU WILL AGAIN BE THREATENED.
577. SLU
Posted By: stoormfury at 6:45 AM AST on August 28, 2007.

good morning SLU it has been a while. talk to you later off to work. i suspeCt that SLU WILL AGAIN BE THREATENED.


Yeah man, more action possible this weekend
SLU, u are from St. Lucia right...It has been a long time since i've seen u? How is everything in St. Lucia?

Good Morning All.
heres wat i can donate: lol

mom didnt let me stay out till full color :( but hey its preety good!
580. SLU
Yeah everything's good. Damage from Dean still visible with many hillsides looking barren and bare but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.
Morning all.

Been up since about 6 a.m. but had some things to do on this end which had nothing to do with weather.

BTW, woke up about 1:20 a.m. to the heaviest downpour we've had in almost 2 weeks. This was due to a passing cloud cell which I was later able to ID using Nasa's interactive viewer zoomed on Nassau. Interestingly enough, I observed this cell earlier this evening off to our SW as it put on a spectactular light show. However, it just seems to be part of the instability seen in the wake of the latest Twave passage.

Also observing the area E / NE of the Bay of Honduras, which, as many were saying last night,does seem to have tracked to the NW as opposed to strictly west. Looks like this has at least 1 more day (potentially) to develop before it runs completely into land. I wouldn't be surprised to see this little area in the Gulf in 2 days, though I don't remember seeing much of a circulation when kman posted the quikscat last night.
Glad to hear...hope the new wave is either a fish storm or just fizzle out.
583. SLU
Yep
Most recent EUMETSAT view of the CATL blob:

What has changed since Dean formed in that area that makes you so sure that it is a fish storm
Worried about waves. Not me Nothing going on again.
Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive at 11:11 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

What has changed since Dean formed in that area that makes you so sure that it is a fish storm


Did I said I SURE it was a fish storm or I HOPE it was a fish storm?

Posted By: Weather456 at 11:04 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

Glad to hear...hope the new wave is either a fish storm or just fizzle out.

Boy, that CATL area of interest sure looked a lot better 24 hours ago . . .

Why might it turn north? Possibly because of something like this:



However I don't think this scenario will set up quickly enough to influence that current low - maybe the next one . . . The ridging over the SE US and Bahamas looks pretty set for the next 2 days, and I think our current CATL area is a bit far west already.
Posted By: Weather456 at 11:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive at 11:11 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

What has changed since Dean formed in that area that makes you so sure that it is a fish storm

Did I said I SURE it was a fish storm or I HOPE it was a fish storm?

Posted By: Weather456 at 11:04 AM GMT on August 28, 2007.

Glad to hear...hope the new wave is either a fish storm or just fizzle out.


sorry did not notice
That quikSCAT pass is not one hour old, the time of the pass is at the bottom from 20:30 yesterday.
The time at the top is the buffer time
good morning

quikscat this morning only caught the W edge of the CATL low
looks like it has a surface low now what isn't it a depression now
It isnt a depression because that quikscat pass isnt showing winds at 25 knots or above (30mph or above). So it can have a closed surface low but winds under depression status. For winds to increase u will deep convective clouds to turn that heat of condensation into energy to drive the winds.
596. IKE
And the convection with the CATL wave is limited...
and thier is dry air and upper level lows all around it plus the larger wave off africa is going to catch it and eat it like pac man tropics are basically quiet would watch this weekend for some home brew and just keep a glance to the far away stuff imho
598. IKE
I noticed the GFS is back on a low forming in the northern GOM this weekend....other models hint at it some.
I don't see any eyepoppers over Africa right now. However, note that naked swirl off the west coast. I recall yesterday seeing an impressive low pressure system near Burkina Faso; that must be it.

waves
Can someone post the link to the GFS loop?
Morning again y'all.

Looks like the RAMMB genesis product is interested in the wave coming off Africa.

I do agree with Saint about the ULL N of DR/Haiti tearing up pretty much anything that gets near it. Now if it dissipates or moves out of the are then the CATL wave might stand a chance. Also agree it will be interesting to see what plays out in the GOM and off the E coast this weekend.

Find that RAMMB product page as well as imagery, marine data, and other model pages on the
Quick Links page.
w4me, see that link below. Several of the model pages there offer the GFS forecast loops.
604. IKE
06Z GFS...

Link
That area on the RAMMB page seems to be coming off Africa as we speak...QuickSat
607. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:11 AM CDT on August 28, 2007.
06Z GFS doesnt show anything developing in the Northern Gulf


It's got a 1012 mb low there the end of the week/weekend. Plus it almost always undershoots intensity.
I agree jp, GFS shows nothing in the Gulf. Maybe something off the E coast, but not real likely imho
IKE, check the 850mb vorticity maps on the FSU page...6z GFS shows nothing there...
Ok y'all back to work for me. See y'all later ☺
What we should really be happy about this morning is the caribbean low. That easily could have moved north and misses central america. That would have been a BIG problem.
i notice that the CATL disturbance has gained some latitude.this will encourage it to get into a organisation mode. i notice that the cloud tops have warmed a bit,that i believe is only a temporary stage and that the system willget it's act together during the next 24hrs. the system is still enclosed in it's envelope of moisture and that i expect to grow.it is also noticeable that the dry air to the north and east is moving west in tandem with the system and will not be a hindrance to development although the major models have not latched on to this system at the moment ,i expect to see a chage over the next few days
614. IKE
From Mobile,Al...extended discussion....

" A
surface low develops over southern Alabama ahead of the front on
Thursday apparently due to the interaction of a prominent
shortwave...the sea breeze front...and interaction with the west
side of the approaching tropical wave. The surface low becomes
associated with the front as the front sags towards the coast and
the tropical wave continues eastward...then continues westward along
the Gulf Coast through Sunday with the tropical wave."
Good Morning...Looks like it will be quiet in the tropics for the next few days and the weather is beautiful here in the Big Bend/Panhandle......Will BBL if conditions warrant
I have written some KML files that are of use in the weather I will be working on more let me know of some good ideas for them also if you want to see them please pm me as I do not want to get banned for posting a link to a site that is owned by me
618. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:18 AM CDT on August 28, 2007.
ok IKE and?

GFS doesnt show it and the discussion says the low if there is one will stay along the coast, im not seeing much there to hang a hat on


I am...rain for the NE GOM and the tri-state area....
620. LLJ
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
504 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007


...WAVY FRONT DISSIPATING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE IS FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE. AFTER REVIEWING SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00Z GEM
REGIONAL/NAM/GFS/UKMET..21Z/27 SREF MEAN..12Z/27 ECMWF AND
COLLABORATING WITH NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...IT LOOKS LIKE
TWO SPOT LOWS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY...ONE EAST
OF THE OUTER BANKS...AND A SECOND NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA SHORE.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IS LOW SINCE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK MAY BE
CONTAMINATING THE LOW STRENGTH/POSITION AT THAT TIME.

AS THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH...ANOTHER LOW SHOULD
FORM NEAR 31N 77W THURSDAY...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z UKMET
SOLUTION. AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SOLUTION BASED SOLELY
ON SUBJECTIVELY BLENDING SOLUTIONS FROM AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive at 12:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2007.

I have written some KML files that are of use in the weather I will be working on more let me know of some good ideas for them also if you want to see them please pm me as I do not want to get banned for posting a link to a site that is owned by me


I wud like to see them....send me a link by WU email
Good Morning All from Central Florida,
Anything I should be concerned about?
STORM 94L INVEST

storm
624. LLJ
Yep! 94L has been declared.
Too bad, Ike - had a real frog strangler over here yesterday - had to work late b/c my 1/2 hour lunch turned into an hour waiting for the rain to abate enough to leave the smoking area (it's isolated)...
626. IKE
94L....

10.5N
40.0W

1009mb low.
627. IKE
Posted By: F1or1d1an at 7:38 AM CDT on August 28, 2007.
Too bad, Ike - had a real frog strangler over here yesterday - had to work late b/c my 1/2 hour lunch turned into an hour waiting for the rain to abate enough to leave the smoking area (it's isolated)...


It's rained here the last 2 nights...starting about 8:30-9 pm. Heavy rain...thunderstorms.
628. IKE
We've only had 1.88 inches of rain this month in Defuniak Springs..seems like we've had more...that's at a location about 6 miles from my house.

Oh well...at least there's 94L to track now.
GFS shows a series of low pressure waves lined up in the CATL about Sept 10-13.
630. LLJ
ECMWF has this over PR on Tuesday/ Wednesday.
631. IKE
The BAMM and LBAR models take 94L into South America...the GFS doesn't. I tend to believe the GFS.

SHIPS has it as a hurricane in 3 days.
I just added another KML File to my website
Don't listen to the SHIPS model, it's hardly ever right. It predicted 93L to become a hurricane over land.
how much of a possibilty of 94L turning a little north and going through the carribean and not SA
635. LLJ
ECMWF is dragging it up off the SE Bahamas....has an evil look toward Florida.
i think that it will make it into the carrabean
ECMWF has a strong tropical storm headed for the East Coast in 240 hours. That's a believable forecast.
The BAMM did pretty well with Dean. Maybe the GFDL and HWRF will begin producing runs for this soon. AVNO (GFS) hasn't produced a track yet but you can get an idea of what it does with it on the 06z run (fluctuates in pressure then ultimately disspiates once it nears the Antilles).
640. IKE
Here's that 0Z ECMWF run....

Link
641. IKE
I don't think 94L is going into SA...seems a threat more to the northern islands and PR. Don't anybody start boarding up windows...I'm not a met...just my thoughts on it.
Dean deals heavy blow to Caribbean produce

BY JACQUELINE CHARLES
MiamiHerald.com

KINGSTON, Jamaica -- Before Hurricane Dean's ferocious winds barreled through the Caribbean last week, Jamaica was poised to record one of its best agricultural harvests in a decade.

But with coffee, vegetable, banana and fruit farmers reporting crop losses of 15 to 45 percent, government officials now fear they will need imports to help feed the island-nation's 2.6 million people.

''It's a really big blow to our farmers,'' said Norman Grant, a senator and president of the Jamaica Agricultural Society. ``As it relates to the domestic consumption, it's most urgent. The ministry . . . of agriculture is looking to see if there is a need to import more vegetables and cash crops in order to fill the gap.''

Hardest hit by Dean's Category 4 winds were banana farmers, who are now looking at seven to eight months before they can resume exports to the United Kingdom. In 2006, Jamaica's agriculture exports were valued at $231 million -- roughly 6 percent of the island's gross domestic product.

''It's been a very bad destruction. Our exports have ceased,'' said Marshall Hall, chairman of the Banana Export Co. of Jamaica. ``We will have to use what's on the ground, and that will disappear in two to three weeks. Bananas and plantains are a total wipeout.''

And not just in Jamaica. All along Dean's destructive path, beginning when its Category 2 winds sideswiped the French-speaking islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe before hitting Jamaica, farmers are reporting near or total ruin.

NO EXACT FIGURES

Several Caribbean island nations are still assessing the damage tally, but virtually all have announced aid packages to help farmers purchase fertilizer, seeds and other items needed to help kick-start production.

For Caribbean banana exporters, Dean couldn't have come at a worse time. The region has been locked in a long and crippling trade dispute with its Latin American competitors over the preferential treatment its bananas receive from the European Union. A shortage of Caribbean bananas in Europe could create an opening for competitors.

''We have declared 100 percent loss in the banana industry. Well in excess of 800 farmers are without work,'' Roosevelt Skerrit, prime minister of tiny Dominica in the Eastern Caribbean, told The Miami Herald in a telephone interview from the island nation of 72,386 people.

Skerrit estimated Dean's damages to his nation's agriculture sector, which includes avocados, yams, citrus and various other fruits as well as bananas, at $13.5 million. Agriculture accounts for 18 percent of Dominica's economy and employs 40 percent of the workforce.

EXPORTS TO SUFFER

''Our export earnings will be significantly diminished,'' Skerrit said.

The story is the same elsewhere.

The head of Martinique and Guadeloupe's banana producers union told reporters that the storm decimated all of Martinique's banana crops and 80 percent of the plantations in nearby Guadeloupe. The damages were estimated at $134.5 to $161.4 million.

In tiny St. Lucia, where the government has been trying to revitalize the banana industry, officials are estimating an island-wide loss of 65 percent of banana crops.

Farmers in Haiti, who grow plantains mostly for domestic consumption, also reported losing entire plantations to Dean's winds.

Even growers in Suriname, on the northern shoulder of South America, reported losses in papaya, sugar and grain crops, said Gordon Myers of the Caribbean Banana Exporters Association.

HEAVY IMPACT

''Lives and families will be impacted seriously,'' said Fremont Lawrence, spokesman with the Windward Islands Banana Exporting and Development Company (WIBDECO), based in St. Lucia. He said banana exports to the UK earned the Windward Islands -- St. Lucia, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines -- $18.7 million during the first six months of this year.

WIBDECO, which markets bananas from the Windward Islands to the United Kingdom, has set up a $1.5 million package to assist its banana farmers.

Last week, the group continued its exports to the United Kingdom, but the supply on hand was 46 percent less than the previous week, when Dean wasn't even a blip on the weather radar.

''We will continue to export bananas from the Windward Islands until we return to normal production,'' he said.
Just noticed 94L on Navy site.

They must have just added it, as I checked about 20 minutes ago and it wasn't there...
how fast is 94L moving??
645. IKE
Convection starting to refire a little over 94L.....Felix?
Just looked at that ECMWF. Tropics are waking up again.
Maybe the predicted E Coast fish storm has just been born.
33N 77W
648. IKE
TWO on 94L from the early morning outlook...

"Showers and thunderstorms located about 1000 miles west-southwest of
the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Development...if any...is expected to be slow to occur as this
system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph"
28/1145 UTC 10.3N 39.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Floater has been moved now waiting to see what they put up on it likely 94L but it could just say invest
Latest Microwave Pass of 94L

will be interesting to watch the SE coast the next 3-4 days.....
We have a nice clear visible now:

??

Yep convection appears to be reforming right of the image center. No TCFA has been issued yet.
TheStormWillSurvive, Thanks for the google file.
657. LLJ
GEM......so far out it is ridiculous...but something to see:

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
your welcome what do you think about it
Good morning all!

Good morning Storm! What's your take on 94L?
That GEM is nuts!

One storm off the E. Coast.
Another approaching FL.
Good morning gang
as conditions warrant......Oh Well (how quickly things can change in 20 minutes)...Lets see what Dr. M. has to say about it; probably same thing as NHC....Not an issue for several days depending on persistance and outflow development, but, something to keep an eye on over the next several days...
Good morning SW!

How was your birthday?
They are good becuz i can overlay 850 vorticity with low level winds for more efficient analysis plus i can overlay any vorticity charts with a infrared/visible image
667. LLJ
Yeah, the GEM is working overtime spinning up lows lately.
I am working on a model one then you can overlay 2 hours in a row and see the difference that they make sorry but the first one is the CMC
Someone needs to tell the GEM to put the needle on the record already:-)
Morning JP!
Where is everybody?
If this becomes TD 6, it will take at least 2 days. Just look at all the dry air it has to fight.
I am off for a little while
Hanging in JP.

Last day of work before I take the rest of the week off for some battery recharging.

If we have a system to follow, at least I will not be bored:-)
My forecast track for 94L. Don't put any confidence in this forecast, as I'm just some 8th grader with nothing to do.

Don't forget about the SAL on the north side.
680. LLJ
28/1145 UTC 10.3N 39.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
"Don't put any confidence in this forecast, as I'm just some 8th grader with nothing to do."

That is, hands down, the best post here ever...
LOL presslord, why?
how much of a chance does 94L have to develop??
I suspect that the track model forecasts are way too far south and the shallow BAM model may end up being the closest, although still too far south. I am putting much more weight into the 00Z ECMWF model which takes it over the northern islands and Puerto Rico. Initial track model forecasts are usually have very poor verification numbers as there is no well defined area of circulation to initialize on.
94L Invest



04L Noname



Two observations noted:

1) 94L needs a good amount of organization before 06L Noname

2) The air was drier during the formation of TD 4 than it is right now with 94L, so that gives 94L a good chance once organization is achieved
'cause it's humble...
Three more mornings of surf sounds good to me. Bring it on. Surprised as everyone about the invest. With the mjo moving in this thing might develop.
chant for Felix:

oh felix, i hope for you like it was
1995 all over again. Remember when you
sat offshore and gave us the gift of
waves for a week straight? Remember when
you said you would be back in 12 years
to bestow upon us those gifts again?

That is when I began loving you more than
Santa Claus. I've prayed to the blank
tracking map every day since in hopes of
your return.
Signed up today to say I miss the frequent and humorous updates from the lady who was posting blog updates for Jeff while he was away for a few days.
Does she have her own blog here somewhere?
Good Morning StormW, Nash, JP & All...

Surprised to see 94L this morning. But I don't understand the models showing the track heading into SAM. I believe the track would be further north. What is your take?
695. LLJ
Just the first model runs. Don't take them seriously yet.
Let's see what the GFS, GFDL and HWRF do with their initial runs on this.

As weak and shallow as it is, I don't expect them to have a great grasp as of yet on this system.
697. SLU
oh felix, i hope for you like it was
1995 all over again. Remember when you
sat offshore and gave us the gift of
waves for a week straight? Remember when
you said you would be back in 12 years
to bestow upon us those gifts again?

That is when I began loving you more than
Santa Claus. I've prayed to the blank
tracking map every day since in hopes of
your return.



LOL!
Assuming it survives.....

I don't buy the SA track either.
Climatology for late August says that won't happen. I don't argue with climatoloy.


PS "Blue Angels" just took off for their practice session!
Hey P'Cola Doug,

I've been to watch the Blue Angels practice a lot. They are awesome! Went to high school with one of the former pilots. Glad the weather is holding out this morning for them. Hope we do get more rain today. We certainly need it.

Would like to have a nice quiet tropical rain maker move our way, leave some nice rain and leave again. My yard is dry and crunchy!

Have a great day!
94L now on the table, a lot stacked against it right now. As far as track, if anything develops, the high pressure on the southeast coast needs to be monitored. It's supposed to move off to the NW and be replaced by a Low Pressure system by Thursday. This would draw 94L more to the NW.
701. JRRP
WHO THINK THAT 94l WILL DEVELOP
BECAUSE I DONT THINK SO
94L WILL BE A TD
Posted By: JRRP at 9:48 AM EDT on August 28, 2007.

WHO THINK THAT 94l WILL DEVELOP
BECAUSE I DONT THINK SO
94L WILL BE A TD


Huh?
JRRP ~

Contradicting yourself!
You don't think 94L will develop, but think it will be a TD? Isn't that developing the system?

Ummmmm......
so oh thinks this will be a S FL storm then the GOM? or will this ride up all the way to the GOM or is this too soon to tell?
Yeah, a little contradiction there...

we got 94L 94E and 94W cool
It must be slow times in the tropics when they start giving disorganized convection the status of an 'invest'.

Oh well....at least we get to benefit from up-close imagery.
I think we should analysed the situation before we jump on forecast track...becuz then we will just be getting ahead ourselves only to be dissapointed in the end.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:53 PM GMT on August 28, 2007.

we got 94L 94E and 94W cool


Amazing to think that all 3 major northern hemisphere tropical cyclone formation basins are all running around the same pace of season
Posted By: sullivanweather at 1:55 PM GMT on August 28, 2007. (hide)
It must be slow times in the tropics when they start giving disorganized convection the status of an 'invest'.

Oh well....at least we get to benefit from up-close imagery.

It was for the benefit of the GW crowd, they like making something of nothing LMAO
No way to tell yet Taz. No defined center and way to many dynamics still up in the air.
Link NEW BLOG
oh my gosh... did 94l just wobble to the north on its last frame?


(just kidding) :)
Every wave has potential, JP.

In my opinion, if I were designating invests I would have waited until some organization occured. Not that I'm discounting any development from 94L, but it certainly isn't invest-worthy at this time.

I think 94L in the first cycle of invests was nothing more than some clouds, with perhaps a thunderstorm somewhere in there.

Looking at the satellite, it doesn't appear to be wasting any time getting organized. Convection appears to be migrating to or over the center of circulation.
Canewhisperer,

What center of circulation?
since Felix is a pussy cats name, maybe it will not be a very aggressive storm, or maybe it will just pretend to be sleepy and the give a sudden sneak attack.
720. JRRP
I DONT THINK IT WILL DEVELOP A TD
Seeing those SST maps of the Gulf with the cooler path made by Dean makes me wonder:

How much of the cooling was done by churning of the water, and how much was done by Dean sucking heat out to power its engines?
722. JRRP
THE WAVE BEHIND OF 94L COULD HAS SOME
DEVELOPMENT??????