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The Climate Change Storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:14 PM GMT on April 06, 2007

Significant climate change is already occurring, will grow dramatically, and will cause serious disruptions to natural ecosystems and the lives of billions of people world-wide over the coming century. We need to better prepare for the inevitable changes--and attempt to lessen the magnitude of the these changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. That's the take-home message from today's latest report from the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Every six years, the IPCC releases a huge, influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. Part 1 of the 2007 report, summarizing the science of climate change, was released in February. Today's summary, titled "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" addressed the likely impacts of climate change on Earth's ecosystems and people. Not all of the expected changes will be harmful--the IPCC emphasizes that "impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions" for temperature rises of 1 to 3 �C above 1990 levels, with the big losers being the poor developing countries. However, if global warming exceeds 2 to 3 �C, the IPCC states it is very likely that all regions of the globe will suffer increased costs or declining benefits. I believe it is the responsibility of every citizen of the planet to take the 30 minutes needed to read the IPCC summary and familiarize themselves with what the world's top scientists say about the likely impacts of climate change. The scope and severity of the Earth-shaking changes that lie ahead present a breathtakingly formidable challenge for humanity.


Figure 1. Locations of significant changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) from 1970 to 2004. Between 90% and 100% of these changes are consistent with warming global temperatures, due in large part to human-emitted greenhouse gases. White areas are where not enough data existed to determine a temperature change. Figure 1 is a simplified form of Figure SPM-1 of the 2007 IPCC document, "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability--Summary for Policy Makers."

Observed impacts of climate change to date
The IPCC report begins by summarizing observed changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) reported in 577 papers in the scientific literature between 1990 and 2004 (Figure 1). They conclude, "Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." Examples for which they are highly (80% chance) or very highly confident (>90% chance) of include:

Earlier bird migrations and leaf unfolding
Poleward shifts in the ranges of various plant and animal species
Shifts in the ranges and numbers of ocean species near the poles
Earlier migrations of fish in rivers
Earlier and increased peaks in spring run-off from glacier- and snow-fed rivers
Warming of lakes and rivers
More and bigger glacial lakes
Melting permafrost

Medium confidence effects (50% chance of being true) observed in the Northern Hemisphere include:

Earlier spring planting of crops
Increases in forest fires and pest damage to forests
Heat-related deaths in Europe, spread of disease in some areas, and changes in allergenic pollen
Hunting and travel by humans over Arctic snow and ice

Future impacts
This is where the IPCC report gets very sobering. Keep in mind that the predicted future impacts may be understated, given the cautious nature of scientists--and the fact that the final version was edited by government officials, who changed the original conclusions of the scientists. I'll present just of few of the more mind-boggling impacts (in blue, with my comments in black), and leave the rest for the interested reader to discover:

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources) (high confidence).
In other words, some ecosystems will collapse, putting the people who depend on these ecosystems in grave peril.
Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable (very high confidence).
Expect damage and human suffering from hurricanes to greatly increase in coming decades, thanks to higher seas levels.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1-4 �C (relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea level rise of 4-6 m or more.
Along with drought and ecosystem collapse, sea level rise is my big concern. Sea level before the most recent ice age was about 4-6 meters (13-20 feet) higher than today, at global temperatures that we expect to match by 2100. The IPCC states that a sea level rise of 0.6-1.9 feet (0.18-0.58 meters) is expected by 2100, and a 4-6 meter rise is not likely for centuries. However, our understanding of the response of glaciers to climate warming is poor. An unexpected rapid partial disintegration of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets later this century raising sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) has at least a 1% chance of occurring, in my opinion.

Conclusion
The language of the 2007 IPCC climate report is couched in uncertainly, but the broad picture is clear: future climate change may rival or exceed a World War in its effect on society. Steps to lessen its impact and adapt to it need to be made as soon as possible. The cost in lives, dollars, and human suffering will be far greater if we do not.

In his 2006 book, The Revenge of Gaia, philosopher-scientist James Lovelock writes, "I am old enough to notice a remarkable similarity between attitudes over sixty years ago towards the threat of war and those now towards the threat of global heating. Most of us think that something unpleasant may soon happen, but we are as confused as we were in 1938 over what form it will take and what to do about it. Our response so far is just like that before the Second World War, and attempt to appease. The Kyoto agreement was uncannily like that of Munich, with politicians out to show they do respond but in reality playing for time...Battle will soon be joined, and what we face now is far more deadly than any blitzkrieg."

The climate change storm is coming, and the wind is already starting to rise.

Next blog
My next blog will be Monday afternoon or Tuesday. I've got several topics in mind--tornadoes in Chicago, Greenland glaciers, or hurricane model improvements.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I wonder what the chances are of the northestern coast of the US getting a Hurricane this year are ??? We are LONG OVER DUE !!!!!
HAPPY EASTER, DR. MASTERS. Hope you have a wonderful blessed day today.
Happy Easter to ALL
I wish Dr Masters and Family Blessed Easter Holiday
Hi everyone, I am a lurker but I love this blog, dont know much about the weather but pay attention. But if you check out my blog, I have pictures of Pensacola, FL with ice on Easter Sunday morning. Its not alot but its still ice.
Happy Easter all!
Happy Easter everyone.
Good morning and Happy Easter everyone.
HAPPY EASTER TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!! MAKE IT AN AWESOME DAY :D
I wish it were warmer for Easter
Dr. M, I hope that you've had a wonderful Easter weekend.
welll went me say that this is the 1st 500 commet blog i have seen this year on dr m blog when was the last time dr m had 500 commets ? oh well any way whats go for 600 commet
weatherguy03 said: I see 50 years of cooling and right now about 30 years of warming. Given the current AMO cycle, that will give us about another 20 years of warming followed by another trend downward towards the cold end. Its called a cycle.

I see that too. What I also see, however, is that the extent of the warming in this positive part of the cycle already far exceeds the extent of the cooling in the last negative loop. I can see some cause for concern about that.

The problem with everybody who's shouting about this argument is that there just isn't enough data. Even if we DO reduce the release of pollutants into the environment, can we be certain it will impact the warming trend?

It sure isn't an issue to be ignored . . .
sleet in p'cola on Easter...amazing
christian glitter graphics myspace code christian images
Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com

Happy Easter to you and your family Dr. M!
Geez! It took me an hour to read the posts that went up since Friday afternoon!

Happy Easter, all!


Last year may have been below average, but when u average the last two years, it is immediately obvious that activity is still above average.
Coldest reading in April set @ Jacksonville FL, Savannah, GA and Alma GA. Latest freeze ever @ Jacksonville, and the first freeze ever there in April. 37 @ St. Simons Airport, and 36.1 @ my house. A new daily but not monthy record.
It has been cool and the pressures at the buoys are super hi now but by the GFS; north west Florida looks to be for some stormy weather Tuesday afternoon that will the cross the state. Its been so Dry even if its a bad storm id rather have the rain.
I guess in July they are going to fix the Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche Buoy FINALLY!!!
Operations/Maintenance Schedule
42055 July 2007 Restore station
data.

That would be a cool tour to work on a NWS buoy tender if there is such a thing.


Anyway the pressure is dropping off the Texas cost in what is probably the buildup for the next system.

Graph

523. Inyo
a giant burning cross in the ocean? That's just weird and morbid.

also, it seems like Dr Grey is about as spot-on with politics as he was with last year's hurricane forecast - aka totally full of it.

comparing Al Gore to Hitler? Come on, I'm no Al Gore fan, but that's ridiculous. At worst, Gore is a hypocrite, not a genocidal mass murderer. Bush has killed way more people than Gore but Bush is nothing compared to Hitler
Jaya has finally dissipated and is definitly not expected to reorginize
first blue of the season

Atlantic Season dont begin till June first.The East Pac Season begins May 15th.
thanks captain obvious lol jk
pretty Blue though..my fav color..LOL!
Hmmmm...first blue of the year...more hmmmm
in my opinion the season starts the month the earliest ever recorded storm has occurred, and ends when the latest ever storm occurs.

The season should be April-December, regardless of the inactivity in the early and later months. Doesn't mean storms can't occur during these times, and if this global warming phenomenon is true then we might see a significant extension in the typical hurricane season.
The planet has no EARS..AND CANNOT READ.
SST'S are only slightly above normal across the most areas across the atlantic basin.You can have the warmest water on the planet but if current atmospheric conditions dont favor development the chances for a system to flurish is very low.Adrian
yeah, im not saying im expecting development anytime soon, im just saying you cant rule out something if it has happened before. Obviously you are correct, conditions are not ripe at this time, but can be in a few weeks, its all in the air.
hey guys whats up?
not much
anybody else notice how strange the storm names are for this season?
aww the probability went back to dark purple
No...I didn't notice.
anyone remember when we had storms that had these names, but were not retired? Basically what I am asking, is there any other year that anyone remembers that all these names were to become storms at the same time
I don't understand the question.
541. ryang
LOL Cane.
I know we had a Hurricane Felix, of the names on the list this year. How many of them became storms, but were not retired. Also of the names on here, were there any that were storms in the same year?
I'm sorry,but I still don't understand the question.If a name is on the list for this year,it hasn't been retired.
544. ryang
map

When viewing the ENSO progression from Dec into March as it rapidly transitioned from warm phase toward cooler La Nia, it appears oceanic circulation continues to drive cooler SST's into the central ENSO region.
Yes, but is it the first time a certain name has been used? That, I believe is the question. One or some of the names from 6 years ago may have been retired, and new ones added this year. If none were retired 6 years ago, then all of the names this year were on the list 6 years ago. They are on a 6 year rotation. You can always go check the archives on this site, and see the list from 2001. They should be the same as this year's, unless there are some that were retired after '01.
LinkHere's the list from '01. No storms made a US landfall as hurricanes, but Allison caused so much damage from it's flooding rains in the Houston area, it was retired. I don't know why the other two were retired.
im going with May 11th for the first named system
Allison caused so much damage from it's flooding rains in the Houston area, it was retired. I don't know why the other two were retired.

Michelle was a freaky and devastating storm that formed in the W. Caribbean and headed NE out of the basin via Cuba. It did quite a lot of damage there before passing into Bahamian waters, where it basically disappated. I remember watching the satellite image as it was basically shredded by the mountains of Cuba. At the time I likened it to a cat running its claws through fluff.

Iris made a run across the Caribbean, hitting southern Belize and Northern Honduras doing quite a bit of damage in the process. NHC says of Iris, "As a result of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, intensification began and the minimum pressure dropped from 990 mb to 950 mb in about 18 hours and the winds increased from 75 to 120 knots. Iris became a powerful Category Four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) by 1200 UTC 8 October." Iris was also the storm that capsised the yacht Wave Dancer.

It's good to remember that hurricanes don't have to hit the US for their names to be retired . . .


Here is a picture of Iris
And here is Michelle:

Thanks for the info, Baja. I realize storm names can be retired even if they hit somewhere other than the US, but I just didn't follow storms then like I do now, so I just didn't KNOW why they were retired. I do, however, know that there will never be another Mitch, or Gilbert. For obvious reasons, (incredible storms), I remember them, even though they didn't hit the US.
If u are interested, I posted a blog about Michelle.

I find myself going back to read comments from the NHC on past storms. They actually have quite good records of landfalling storms as far back as 1900 at NHC. At slow times (like this) I often browse through. I wish there was more available for Pacific and Indian Ocean storms, though.

I thought Gilbert did hit the US???
Hmmm. . . 2001 was also the year that hurricane hit Nova Scotia, or somewhere in Canada.
559. ryang
Baha you have mail!
As recommennded by Dr Masters, I took the 30 mins to read the IPCC summary he linked to. Very informative. Interesting the tropics & poles already mostly having negative impacts. A few islands are gone, the inuitt have moved a few villages, the Alaskin oil pipeline is most threatened, etc. With mid latitudes experencing mostly positives, unless in a heat wave area up to but not past the +2-3 mark, at which would spirel them down a negative effects path as well.

Because of how conservative the IPCC tends to be, having such a huge number of specialists from around the world contributing & or agreeing, disagreeing to come up with percentages of confidence, as does the added amount of global info & research since the last summary of impact (2001), well that's what makes it so ominus. That & realizing it's already happening. It has begun. Even the big oil companies agree...

I don't see the topic being over done here this winter. I see people with opinions that don't want to discuss it even though ice is melting, this changes currents, which effects our weather & how we would predict our weather.

In weather if you don't look at the big picture, your not gonna see what weather is gonna happen.
Nice research Baha~ I had forgotten who took down Wave Dancer.
Very well put Skye..I learned one thing as a Mediator in Union disputes years ago.."Some people, if they DONT wanna know,..you cant tell um". Period. And in the words of a Famous Shrimper,.."dats all Im gonna say Bout that"..
Never say it cant be done either...
LOL~ I bet we could even come up with making a flying lawnmower that didn't leave chemtrails if we wanted:)
Hmmm. . . I see I was wrong. It went ashore for the final time south of Monterrey, Mexico. It did bring heavy rain to S. Texas, though. Maybe that is what I was recalling.

Gilbert hit the Yucatan as a cat 5!
Daaag . . . not only a flying lawnmower, but a stuntflying lawnmower . . .

LOL
CB...Dr. Gray,in my opinion,is probably right about GW being not human caused,and just a natural cycle.I'm currently researching on a large blog on this issue,that I hope to have finished around the start of hurricane season.
Of course.
I don't have a link...but of course he doesn't deny CO2 is increasing.It's obvious.He just thinnks that it isn't causing GW.
Never in 650 thousand years,huh?Check this out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png
A bit of trivia -

Which ATL hurricane achieved cat 5 status on three separate occasions without making landfall as a category 5 hurricane?
Ivan...Didn't it reach Cat5 after passing the islands, and twice in the northwestern Carribean/southeastern Gulf?
Yes,it did.Sorry,I'm a bit busy at the moment.
There's another one.

fairly weak SAL


check my blog
They're in Hawaii!Isn't their Co2 concentrtion pretty dependent on volcanic activity?
Wait for what?
I mean come on man!That's the same of sticking a Co2 detector near the exhaust pipe of a car!It's gonna vary alot,and won't be a reliable indicator of anything other than if the car's on or off.
You could stick it over the open ocean.
The point is that to stick a CO2 detector on a volcanic island and expect meaningful results is stupid.
cyclonebuster, Proxy CO2 data is taken from Vostok, which typically runs 10ppm lower than readings taken at Mauna Loa, not that it's any consolation (Vostok will be where Mauna Loa is today in 6 or 7 years (CO2-wise)).

However, it's just another example of how far the GW crowd will go make everything seem much worse than it really is.
You're absolutely right.I'm sorry,I'm an ignorant fool and I should've realized you can get consistent readings by putting a CO2 detector near a volcano.Forgive me for my ignorance!
Alright,what does acidity have to do with CO2?Nothing!
You don't know what you're talking about.CO2 has nothing to do with acidity.
goodnight.
wbk: Carbon dioxide forms carbonic acid and similar acids when dissolved in water. See this link.

"It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all CO2 generated by human activities since 1800."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming

I stand corrected.It happens,goodnight
The GFS MSLP, Precip has the system Tuesday crossing more towards central Florida Its starting to look like some of it could be pretty bad.

By Saturday the central US will get its turn at another storm.
Actually, the oceans haven't absorbed all of the CO2... there's an equalibrium... Most, yes, all, no. And if the ocean warms, it will hold less as the equalibrium shifts!

Now, I see somebody say to make the ocean more alkaline. That's funny. It would take roughly 240 cubic kilometers of NaOH to make the ocean 0.01 pH point more basic. And how do we make NaOH? Electricity, and lots of it. And where do we get electricity??? Oh, yeah, we burn fossil fuels.
The Earth has a fever!

And the only perscription is...

Link
The other hurricane that reach category 5 status en three times without make landfall as a Cat5 was Hurricane Allen in 1980
Morning "Latte Spill"...
Entergy to begin charging for fund
Fee provides reserve for future storms

Monday, April 09, 2007
By Pam Radtke Russell

Entergy New Orleans customers' bills will be a little bit longer and a little bit higher this month as the utility begins to build up a $75 million fund to pay for damages from future storms.

The "storm reserve rider," as listed on bills under both gas and electric service, will cost the average household $2.59 a month: $2.01 for electric service and 58 cents for gas service.

The charges were approved in October by the New Orleans City Council as part of a settlement with Entergy New Orleans, which asked to raise rates and to create a storm reserve fund. The settlement also calls for natural gas rates to increase this month by about 2 percent, or $3.75 a month for the average customer. In all, the agreement allows Entergy to raise electric and gas rates, including the storm reserve rider, by about 7.5 percent through April 2009.






Entergy New Orleans had insisted that it be allowed to collect money for a storm reserve fund, saying such a fund might be necessary for it to emerge from bankruptcy. Entergy New Orleans has been in bankruptcy since weeks after Hurricane Katrina but is still operating.

In part, the company went into bankruptcy because it did not have the cash flow to repair damage to its gas and electric systems. The reserve fund is expected to be sufficient to cover damage from future storms while averting any similar financial crisis.

"We know any bill increase, particularly in these difficult times, is unpopular. But we also know that after a storm, everyone wants their lights turned on as quickly as possible, and given the post-Katrina realities, this is the most responsible way to achieve that goal," said Morgan Stewart, a spokesman for Entergy New Orleans. "The storm reserve gives Entergy New Orleans the ability to restore the New Orleans electric and gas systems following future disasters, without burdening customers with the costs."

Entergy had originally requested that it be allowed to collect about $6 per month from every customer to create a $150 million fund. That request was deemed excessive by the City Council Utilities Committee and cut to $75 million.

The fee will be collected for 10 years. The City Council will review the collections in five years to make sure the fund amount is "appropriate," according to the agreement between the city and Entergy.

According to the agreement with the city, the money will be put in a separate "lock box" escrow fund that Entergy New Orleans will not be able to access unless it incurs at least $500,000 in storm costs.

As interest accumulates in the account, Councilwoman Shelley Midura said, it might become possible to reduce the amount collected.

Midura also said that such a fund, because it will provide assurances that Entergy New Orleans can better survive future storms, will allow the company to borrow money at lower rates, a savings that eventually could be passed on to customers.

Storm reserves were developed because standard insurance is not readily available on wires, poles and other portions of a utility's system that are most likely to be damaged in a hurricane. They aren't unique to New Orleans, nor are they unprecedented here.

Though it wasn't collected under a separate line item on customer bills, Entergy New Orleans had such a fund until it was wiped out by Hurricane Cindy in 2005.

As part of its agreement with the city, Entergy agreed to work with the city to urge that Congress amend the Stafford Act, which governs emergency federal spending. The amendment would allow the Federal Emergency Management Agency to cover the cost of utility damage in future storms.

If such a change were made, the storm reserve rider could become unnecessary, Midura said.
It is interesting that Florida is expected to get cooler in this scinerio. But Hurricane impacts will make up for that good news.
FL might accually get some rain. I hope ya'll do get some! I know it pretty crispy down there.
In the meantime, Texas has had the latest snowfall (measurable) ever recorded. Waco, TX reported 3", Temple had 4.5".


There is a mean little storm just off the coast of PanamaLink
All I know is, in the late 70's, there were cover stories about "The Next Ice Age" on Time and Newsweek. That's what the alarmists of the time believed. I imagine alot of the same alarmists are running around today screaming about GW. We haven't had satellites long enough to prove that there are more frequent or more powerful storms now than in the past. The only way storms could be reported in the past were if they hit a populated area...I'm not talking about since the 1800's, I'm talking about since the beginning of time. GW alarmists seem to only go by data collected from the last 30 years or so.

Thank you jake436. Im glad someone remembers the Ice Age scares from the 70s. I never heard a word about GW back then. Too much is based on short term data.
As I live in North Florida now (after moving here some years ago from Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), I will encourage my kids (and future grandchildren) to buy property up here so my family in South Florida can "relocate" in the coming generations........Very sobering indeed if this comes to fruition in the next 50-75 years...........
The difference between today's stories on GW and those 'popular press' stories in an ice age is that back then there were not such stories in the technical literature. In fact, I think the ice age stories were based on a supposition that THOUSANDS OF YEARS FROM NOW the Milankovitch cycles would take us back into a glaciation. Back then we were only beginning to understand these things.
Not really a sponge, CB....

Imagine using a tire pump to try to pump up a tire with a slow leak. The more you pump, the harder it is to put more air in. But the more you pump, the faster it leaks! And on a hot day, the pressure is higer, so it leaks faster and it's harder to pump!

In fact, this is a particularly good analogy... It works on almost exactly the same principle as the oceans absorbing CO2!
Morning all. Good to see everyone.

Been awhile pat and Cajun!
Great, another global warming topic..wake me up when we get to Mexico...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Michael...the truth is practically nobody of substance is being listened to about global warming. As a matter of fact the global military/industrial complex which controls every media syllable you read or hear is gung ho on consuming every ounce of fuel on the planet and setting it afire, if it generates more profits.
If you want that proven in a nutshell, go to this article, which has been picked up by all the major media news services. Not a word of the bestial wastefulness of this act has been alluded to.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070408/ap_on_fe_st/odd_taxi_move
We had a discussion over some Easter BBQ yesterday...my grandfather (who was a farmer all his life like his dad and grandfather)said, he has been watching the weather for 60 years b/c he had to, and GW or not, our climate changes. This may sound too simple and ignorant, but listening to him and his references to his father and grandfather, he makes a good case in stating that. We just don't know what is actually going on. All we know is that it cycles. Warmer and colder every 50 years. Now, if each warmer cycle is warmer than the last warmer cycle, it may just be a cycle in itself. We just don't know. I know everyone sites scientific evidence of everything. You have to ask yourself, do we really have enough info to make statements as fact? He really has no affinity to any political party or group and says, if you wade through all the muck (not the actual term he used)...we are just scratching the surface on the issue.
Sure is Cajunkid! It appears to have a surface or mid-level reflection also! If it had more time before it hit land, maybe! Shear is, dare I say it, rather low down there.
Panama is about to get some rough stuff Link
I've seen this piece of news on major network television this morning, and it is all over the internet. How do you think the media is treating the story of a gas guzzling vehicle transporting cats 2400 miles with no return fare??...'Ohh, isn't that sweet, retirees riding with pets from New York to Arizona'.
StormJunkie, nice to see you back!
hello junkie.! LOL..now lets see "Hmmm,..2400 New York Cabs..thats in Queens alone..drive 1 mile in 60 seconds..while I type this.(im slow)..x 60 minutes in an Hour x's all those others cabs with Humans. and lets throw in all those French cabs..those ASians cabs..x 2400 miles..SHoot..Theres ya Probelm.!" .8
Well..... I see the sky is falling again! LOL

While we are debating "global warming", maybe somebody can explain the fact that "There were settlements along the southern coast of Greenland in the Middle Ages. "

who caused the global warming then???

Please don't get me wrong, I do agree the earth is warming, and I do agree we need to reduce pollution emissions..... but I see these as two different issues.

Bottom line, we still don't know "why" the earth is warming.....

It certainly is a very active time for the sun.... and polar ice caps are melting on mars.....

You make your own judgments, but in the end, we may not have as much to do with climate change as we think..... If I am wrong, I am waiting for the day for somebody to prove it conclusively.....

i would like for somebody to acknowledge that the earth has warmed before...... and man "was not" the cause..........
ROFL!

Gulf..... good to see you haven't lost your sense of humor! :D
It doesnt seem possible but in the south get ready for a quick warm up and Thunderstorms wow its like a reunion in here all of a sudden!

hey gulf!

805 AM EDT MON APR 09 2007


THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW
TO 20N96W THEN CURVES BACK NWD BANKED AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED A FAIRLY DRAMATIC CONTRAST IN TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
50 F ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70'S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. IN ADDITION...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND
HIGH PRES OVER ERN TEXAS HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRONG NE WINDS
AND WIND WAVES IN THE NW GULF...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR BEACHES ALONG S TX. SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO
BROWNSVILLE FOR MORE INFO. MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SE GULF SUPPORTED BY SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE
BAHAMAS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS
THE NRN HALF AND WSW ACROSS THE SRN. THE WSW FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING A STREAK OF CIRRUS SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO FT
MYERS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN THRU
THE DAY AS AN ABUNDANT FEED IS POURED INTO THE SW GULF.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP MODELS SHOW THE WEAK LOW AND
FRONT LIFTING N AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL IN STRUCTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE MUCH OF THE GULF AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TARGETING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND NE GULF.


It looks like isolated storms until the day four outlook (fri and this weekend)



AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL EXIST BY FRI TO THE
EAST OF A DRYLINE...LIKELY VCNTY I-35 EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR/N OF
KOKC SWD INTO CNTRL TX. TSTMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT FRI AFTN ALONG THIS
FEATURE OR STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE RESIDUAL THU NIGHT STORMS...THEN
TRACK EWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION BY FRI NIGHT. MORE
QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN MAY WORK NWD INTO PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
REGION BY NIGHTFALL. GIVEN STRONG JET ALOFT...SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE
LIKELY WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES.


I think we should give the storm off Panama "Blob" status! :)

not a hint of development in any model.... but I never say "never" :)
its still interesting to watchLink
645. Inyo
the mars thing is a load of poop. So one planet out of the 7 or 8 other planets we have is warming. Maybe mercury, venus, jupiter, saturn, uranus, neptune, and pluto (planet or not) are cooling. No one bothers to mention that. Besides , the mars polar caps expand and contract greatly based on their seasons (which are twice as long as ours).

the 'medieval climate optimum' was when Greenland was settled (although it wasnt optimum for everyone - for California, if i recall, it was a frigid 50 year long severe drought. )

We DO know that the earth is being warmed by our CO2 emissions, and that is at least part of the warming we see now. That is what 99%of the scientists who aren't paid off agree on. If you don't want to believe the scientists and want to believe Dubya instead, go right ahead... but it isn't too hard to find out who's smarter there.
The stuff around panama training out across South America into the pacific is cool. I think a lot of that is blowing this way and providing moisture to the upper levels gulf.

cajun good link on the Caribbean - AVN Color Infrared Loop - if you loop it and zoom in - and use your imagination it almost has some rotation. - god knows ive watched hopeless blobs that make that look like a cat 10 supper storm!
Hello all any news on the bermuda high moving?
could this Blob be come are 1st 90L it dos seem to be get biger and doing more well has time gos buy


Link
that Blob we are watching looks like it has a little spin to it from what i can tell from the loop
JFLORIDA, yea thats a big pop down thereLink
651. Inyo
maybe the blob will go way west and get sucked into a low and rain on me. (not likely)
but it will be runing it to land her soon so it dos not give it march time
hello Taz,
sorry, I linked the same site
In the past 3 weeks, the warm water migration from the EPAC to the Carribbian began. There are some rather warm SST's that moved into the area recently.
anyone have a better Panama radar link?
Link
hello cajunkid



i think what evere we are watching has a ch of be comeing 90L
that Blob down there is geting biger
you could be right Taz,
kinda looks like Meatwad right now LOLLink
Cane - I don't think warm water can actually migrate from the EPAC to the Carrib. The water just has to be warming on its own.
from what i can tell from her it has a nic spin to it but like i said be for it will be runing out of time be come it will be runing in to land her soon + it is under 20kt of wind shear

Link
another look Link
cajunkid you cant tell from that photo
Taz,I just put it up b/c I like that site
check my blog guys.If you've got time.
Posted By: Inyo
"the mars thing is a load of poop. So one planet out of the 7 or 8 other planets we have is warming. Maybe mercury, venus, jupiter, saturn, uranus, neptune, and pluto (planet or not) are cooling. No one bothers to mention that. Besides , the mars polar caps expand and contract greatly based on their seasons (which are twice as long as ours). We

the 'medieval climate optimum' was when Greenland was settled (although it wasnt optimum for everyone - for California, if i recall, it was a frigid 50 year long severe drought. )

We DO know that the earth is being warmed by our CO2 emissions, and that is at least part of the warming we see now. That is what 99%of the scientists who aren't paid off agree on. If you don't want to believe the scientists and want to believe Dubya instead, go right ahead... but it isn't too hard to find out who's smarter there."

Lets see, the mars thing, you dismiss without doing "any" research on your own....congrats. And you readily admit you have no idea what the other planets are doing..... congrats.

"We DO know that the earth is being warmed by our CO2 emissions" We... exactly who are you referring to here?? And what caused the earth to warm BEFORE man's CO2 emissions???

"That is what 99%of the scientists who aren't paid off agree on." pure propaganda friend.... congrats.

"If you don't want to believe the scientists and want to believe Dubya instead, go right ahead..." Another slap at the president..... your true colors shine through.... congrats.

Now, if you want to go back and re-read my post, you will find that I acknowledge global warming, and I acknowledge we need to reduce pollution. But that is not nearly good enough for some who think "the sky is falling". :)

Posted By: thelmores

"i would like for somebody to acknowledge that the earth has warmed before...... and man "was not" the cause.........."

hmmm, you didn't want to touch that one either.... imagine that! ;)
It seems to get a little ahead of itself but, Im thinking the highly disorganized center (sfc low?) of Meatwad is somewhere around 79w 10n.
667. Inyo
Posted By: DocBen at 5:21 PM GMT on April 09, 2007.
Cane - I don't think warm water can actually migrate from the EPAC to the Carrib. The water just has to be warming on its own.


maybe it's forcing its way through the Panama Canal! :)
"THE BLOB THAT ATE COSTA RICA"?

Or will it curve ... ?
I'm sick of this doom and gloom crap. Did anyone happen to read about the "global warming" on MARS? God knows that we humans are causing great changes over on Mars and are causing that planet to warm up.

The earth will warm, humans or not. Tropical plant fossils have been found very far north of where they are currently at.

What I failed to see on any major sites, was the research carried out and CONFIRMED by independent scientists that the suns output of radiation (not heat persay) has a direct result on lower level cloud cover in the earth atmosphere.

Now given that Mars is warming, earth is warming, doesn't it seem possible that maybe we humans aren't making as big an impact as Al Gore and company say. Sure we contribute a little, but come on people. If Earth and Mars are warming, then that pretty much helps to convince me that we are probably looking too much in the wrong place.

Wow even National Geo has something to say.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html
Can anyone point me to a study or some other source of information that has real evidence that CO2 is causing global warming? Proof of "cause and effect" is what I'm after.

I've seen lots of charts that show how global temperatures and CO2 are trending up in similar patterns. Looking at these charts, anyone can see what appears to be a relationship between global warming and CO2, but that relationship by itself isn't proof positive that CO2 is the cause of global warming. Without proof, one might just as well be saying "heat is caused by smoke". This line of thinking leaves out the one major ingredient that could be the cause of both global warming and CO2, (the combustion process). CO2 and waste heat created by thousands of automobiles burning gasoline as they race along roads around the world. More CO2 and waste heat from electric power plants and the thousands of devices which use that electricity. And more recently announced is the discovery that other planets in our solar system are warming as well.

I may be way off base, but this is what I'm thinking, and this is why I'm asking for something more than predictions and trending charts showing relationships between what could be effects rather than causes.

So, anyone have a link?

Thanks,
ewebie
great link SickOfDumbQuestions, that was "exactly" my point.... but trust me it will be "ignored" because it does not fit the template!

""Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said."

hmmm.....
Mars is a completely different situation. Its ice caps are composed partially of solid CO2. It has really no atmosphere to speak of when compared to earth. Abdussamatov is not even an atmospheric scientist.

The Mars situation is inapplicable here. It has practically no atmosphere. No Ocean. No Biosphere. No fossil fuels. AND is chemically unlike earth. Why it is even being used in arguments is beyond me.

And anyone that says this:

Dr. Abdussamatov goes further, debunking the very notion of a greenhouse effect. "Ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated," he maintains. "Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."


Is WAY oversimplifying things. Thats crazy talk.
solar Irradiance

The Sun is not heating up. Here's the data. In the 90's the argument was "there is no such thing as global warming". Now that the evidence is piling up, the argument is "Humans aren's doing it".
Thelmores, sounds like you didn't read the second page of the article.

By the way. In earlier warming periods, while CO2 may have gotten things started, the release of large quantities of Methane caused a great deal of warming. Methane is 23 times as harmful as a greenhouse gas. Long before the dinosaurs, the Permian extinction was such an event and wiped out 98% of all life on earth at the time.

We use 84 million barrels of oil per day. Half of that is burned, the rest goes to making plastics, fertilizers, pesticides and more. Our atmosphere becomes more rarified as you go up in altitude. Half of the actual molecules are contained in the bottom 3 miles of our atmosphere. Certainly, we'd like to go on without making changes, but it seems to me pretty obvious that if we don't make changes, they will be made for us, or at least for our children.
the loop eddy in the gulf is doing a un oh thing and it this off of FL oh one more thing we now have a loop eddy in the Carribean

lol
geographerguy, I did indeed read the whole article.... but I did not want the "discussion" to be degraded by discussion of cow and pig farts and belches! LOL

Oh..... and don't count Volcano's either! ;)

I really don't want to get into a back and forth on the topic..... (been there and done that on this blog already!).

Let's just "agree to disagree".... and leave it there.

Bottom line, NOBODY has conclusive evidence one way or another.... I will repeat from my original post.....

We do have global warming, and we do need to reduce pollutants in the atmosphere....... we ought to at least be able to agree on that! :)
It actually does DocBen! By process of evaporation. The evaporation actually is from the Atlantic to the Pacific via Central America. It is a fairly new discovery, MichaelSTL is the one who informed me about it! He posted some maps on the subject! I did some searching but could not find them. Next time you see him, or I, I will see if he can do a blog on the subject. From my research so far, this process is slowed during cool periods and sharply increases in both warm and cold periods in response to the North Migration of the ITCZ. I am not well versed on the subject yet, but it looks like latent heat transfer, evaporation and ocean salinity all play roles.
Less evaporation from the Atl to the Pacific would lead to higher SST's in the Carribian and eventually carried through the gulf stream.
Ok, SickOfDumbQuestions: On Earth fossils of tropical plants such as ferns & palms have been found in high latitude locations but that is believed due to continental drift. You know, plate tectonics and all that? Continents aren't static but actually very slowly drift around. So those tropical plant fossils were laid down when that land area was in a low latitude location. Yes, the Earth was warmer in the past and also much colder at times. I guess you could say that we know the Earth is warming and we believe our burning of fossil fuels is largely the culprit because it makes sense that it would. These fossil fuels were formed when large amounts of CO2 were removed from the atmosphere millions of years ago and now we're putting that CO2 back into the atmosphere very rapidly. And CO2 is a very efficient greenhouse gas. There's no need for mass panic right now/ today but we really need to start doing something to change this.
True - but that is a bit different from warm water migrating. In fact, evaporation from the Atlantic should cool it; not warm it (thus the NADW production)

Your second post clarifies.

Now for an interesting supposition: what happens if fresh water discharge into the N Atlantic shuts down the Gulf Stream? We have read about a sort of "Younger-Dryas" cooling in the north but what happens in the Gulf/Carribean? Warmer? More "fertile" for storm intensification?
SatBeachFL,

That chart only gooes to 2002 so I'm guess it was one of those reports made from bad data from satellite drift.

11 Aug 2005
Et Tu LT?
Filed under: Climate Science Climate modelling Instrumental Record gavin @ 2:20 pm
In previous posts we have stressed that discrepancies between models and observations force scientists to re-examine the foundations of both the modelling and the interpretation of the data. So it has been for the apparent discrepancies between the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) lower tropospheric temperature records (MSU 2LT), radiosonde records and the climate models that try to simulate the climate of the last few decades. Three papers this week in Science Express, Mears et al, Santer et al (on which I'm a co-author) and Sherwood et al show that the discrepancy has been mostly resolved - in favour of the models.

It is worth encapsulating exactly what the problems have been and why they have taken so long to resolve. The MSU records are derived from a series of satellites that have been in orbit since late 1978. Each satellite has had different calibration problems (due to orbital decay, sensor issues etc.) and stringing them together has been fraught with difficulty. Different groups have made different decisions about how to do this and this has lead to quite some differences in MSU products particularly between the UAH group (Spencer and Christy) and the RSS group (Wentz, Mears and colleagues) . The differences have been mostly seen in the trends, rather than the monthly or interannual variability, and so have been more difficult to validate. Incidentally, it is a clear sign of 'cherry-picking' when people only report their favorite one of the groups' trends instead of the range.

There have been three principle MSU products: Channel 4, Channel 2 and the 2LT records. MSU-4 is a record of lower stratospheric temperatures, MSU-2 is mainly mid-troposphere combined with a significant chunk of the lower stratosphere, and MSU-2LT is an attempt to use more viewing angles to try remove the stratospheric influence from MSU-2 and leave a lower-tropospheric record. (Recent upgrades to newer satellite instruments with more channels have lead to the 2LT record being renamed the TLT record).

The disagreement with the models related mainly to the MSU 2LT record. Models do quite well at matching the history of MSU-4 (whose variability is a function mainly of ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol effects), and models also match the lack of significant trend in MSU-2 (which is affected by stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming which cancel out to some degree) (i.e Hansen et al 2002). So the problem has been principally with MSU 2LT, which despite a strong surface temperature trend did not seem to have been warming very much - while models and basic physics predict that it should be warming at a slightly larger rate than the surface.

In the first Science Express paper, Mears et al produce a new assessment of the MSU 2LT record and show that one of the corrections applied to the UAH MSU 2LT record had been applied incorrectly, significantly underplaying the trend in the data. This mistake has been acknowledged by the UAH team who have already updated their data (version 5.2) so that it includes the fix. This correction (related to the drift in crossing times at the equator) mainly affects the tropics, and was most important for one particular satellite (NOAA-11). Interestingly, Fu and Johansen (2005) singled out this same satellite and this same correction as being the source of divergence between the different records, though without being able to say exactly what the problem was. The fix leads to an increase of about 50% in the UAH global mean trend (0.086 to 0.12 deg/decade). The new RSS version of the 2LT record still shows a higher trend (0.19 deg/decade), with the difference being due to the methodology used to splice the different satellites.

more at : http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et-tu-lt/
California group's answer to climate puzzler improves the accuracy of global climate data (8/11/2005)

A curious puzzle in the study of climate science has been solved, and that solution is helping scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) make the satellite record of global climate change more reliable than it was previously.

Research published this week by Carl Mears and Frank Wentz of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in Santa Rosa, Calif., identifies a problem that kept the UAH group from accurately correcting one error caused by NOAA satellites drifting in their orbits over the past 26 years.

The net result of changes in how the data are analyzed added about 0.09 C (about 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming over the past 26 years, with most of that previously unreported warming occurring in the tropics.


More at: http://www.uah.edu/news/newsread.php?newsID=60

There are bunch of other articles about improvements they have made with satellite data related to reading atmospheric temperatures from After Aug '05.
There are lots of wrong assumptions prior to this time from the bad data.
I wonder if the Anticyclonic flow and tendencies over Meatwad could induce a situation more favorable for hybrid development.
In my reading! This evaporation transfer in central america plays a big role in the North Atlantic. So I would think that if the Gulf Stream were shut down, it would affect the transfer of dense salt water, thus increasing the impact in the North Atlantic. Also a build-up salty, warm ocean water. Creating a dead sea, if you will, in the Carribian.
Too bad it's just a blob...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
What is the bloody code for inserting an immage here?
Is that blob lifting northwards?
Knowing that the evaporation transfer during a cool period is less (less heat transfer). The recent warming off the coast of Central America could be another visible sign of the coming La Nina!


Make sure the picture is not too big, otherwise you will blow the margins on the blog.
Sorry img src=URL OF PICTURE Place all of that inside
Thanks
lol

greater than symbol,img src=urlofpicture,less than symbol

try that lol.
696. Inyo
again, warming on two out of eight (or nine) planets does NOT mean the sun is getting warmer. If all of the planets were warming, it would be a much more convincing argument. The argument for warming caused by solar fluxuations is much weaker than that for CO2 caused warming. However, that doesn't mean they aren't 'comorbid' with each other.. if they are, we're really screwed.
The John Hopkins APL SST maps are pretty interesting for a year to year comparison of sea temps throughout the year. I have the past few years for the GOM and Gulf stream in my blog. There is not enough data there to really say much one way or another on GW and what the exact cause is, but it is still interesting to see. Prior to this cold snap things were considerably warmer then last year. I don't think these maps represent any sort of depth of heat...

Sorry, had the wrong link in there. Should work for now.
"Posted By: Inyo
again, warming on two out of eight (or nine) planets does NOT mean the sun is getting warmer. If all of the planets were warming, it would be a much more convincing argument."

Do you have evidence either way?? Didn't think so!

I offered an olive branch earlier, but I guess it was passed over.....

"We do have global warming, and we do need to reduce pollutants in the atmosphere....... we ought to at least be able to agree on that! :)"

Present your "facts", and let the readers decide! :) Please leave the Al Gore and GW cracks on another site.
ProgressivePulse here SJ and JFlorida! New handle for this year! Good to see some old names coming out again! How you guys been in the off season?
thelmores - click on "education" above and then follow all sorts of other links Wunderground provides.
What's up JP!

Good to see ya thel! Whats this debate about?

TCW works better anyway Pulse ;) lol. Good to see ya.

704. Inyo
weird that despite la nina, the tropical north pacific is still above average. does that mean another active e-pac season, or will la nina inhibit that?
Yeah, being referred to as PP got old real quick, lol.
Hello all - everyone decided to log on today?!

I did like the name though TCW...

What's up JF and Inyo?
I think it may have something to do with the rapid transition cool to warm and back to cool again. I woulden't think the oceans would have a chance to equalize. Just my opinion but, I think it will be a late start this year. With lingering effects of El Nino.
That is also Why I think we didn't see the typical El Nino winter this year in certain areas. Mainly the West Coast.
the loop eddy in the gulf is doing a un oh thing and it this off of FL oh one more thing we now have a loop eddy in the Carribean

lol


ok that commet got lost lol


whats go for 800 commets
How quickly does the loop current shift in position? Like... Can we expect the current eddies and things of that nature to be near their current positions in the next 3 months?
story - that blob is getting interesting looking. Think it will go west into Costa Rica or lift north?
GOM Loop current 60 Hour Forecast from the LSU site..Link
715. Inyo
Do you have evidence either way?? Didn't think so!

I offered an olive branch earlier, but I guess it was passed over.....


hey, i don't have any hostile intentions towards you, and i agree with your conclusions that we should reduce co2 emissions regardless of if it affects the climate. I just don't agree with the mars analogy.
Nice link Pat!
717
Hi all

With all this talk of blobs and the loop current June 1st can't be far away !! LOL
Right Islander, June first means there will be a storm! I mean that is how it works since it is the beginning of the season? Right....

lol, good to see you.
720. ryang
Hello all!

My blog has to southern caribbean blob....what are the chances.LOL
hey there storm

Hard to believe that it is almost that time of year again. Water temps in the W Caribbean are already near 83 F.

The " winter " months in the Caymans have been strange with very strong winds out of the NE from Dec all the way to the end of March. We have not seen this pattern for as long as I can remember.

Don't know if it means anything for the upcoming season but the winds have only relaxed in the last week or so. Still hot, dry and dusty. No rain expected until mid May.

ryang

chances of what, raining in Costa Rica or Panama? lol

723. ryang
The GFS has a storm in the gulf in 10 dats....UNBELIEVABLE!

Kman lol
725. TS2
90L is a great possibility now
JP

Navy site not down for me

Link
yeah Doc, I think the blob will head North. As for if it goes inland or not on the way we'll have to see
can someone tell me how to read the map that Taz posted at the top? Is it signifying surface circulation or wind speeds?
Could be N as a rain maker for the Caymans
We sure need it. Been like a desert here since last Nov save for the odd shower or two



Link
you mean this map?

lol
story

are u referring to the loop current map ?
looks like the S Caribbean blob isnt taking a liking to the 30knots of shear

it shows you where the loop eddy are and there 2 loop eddy we need to watch
if I had to guess Id say its circulation
the map is showing the speed and location of the loop current. later on it may show a cut off eddy. these can be particularly dangerous as a hurricane passing over an eddy can ramp up in intensuty very quickly. I believe katrina passed over an eddy before landfall.
you mean the loop current?
why do we need to watch it if there is no storm present?
story

here is a good discussion on the loop current

Link
so if something was on the verge of development a loopu current/eddie would set it over the top? Doesnt cause development or anything like that? Thx for the link.
743. ryang
The southern caribbean blob has a 0.2 chance of developing...Link
hey if theres a will theres a way lol
745. ryang
It's looks really good though...Link
yeah, the shear to the north is going to make it so that blob stays dormant
The shear Tendency has been decreasing in the area.
It looks like Dr. Masters touched on a nerve with Global Warming. What if fossil fuels don't contribute to Global Warming. Wouldn't it be a good idea to try & ween ourselves off of fossil fuels because it pollutes the air? Besides that, we are too dependent on foreign oil. Wouldn't it be nice to be able to bomb Iran & not have to worry about the price of Crude going through the roof?

There will probably be sharp differences in opinion during the next 20-30 years until the data becomes more clear. You know, with fluctuations in natural cycles etc.

I am glad for the GW hype whether or not it is true because it is forcing our hand to produce cleaner ways to produce energy. I would like to see automobiles run on electricity produced by nuclear, solar, & wind as opposed to burning gasoline & coal.

The GW hype will make us energy independent with cleaner air as a by-product. This won't happen overnight. There is a lot of research funds going towards renewable energy & this is great. We are heading in the right direction but it is taking a lot longer than what we want it to.
The loop current becomes is important during the season because a storm passing over either the current itself or an eddy that has seperated from it can intensify quite rapidly. You will see from the link I posted that the reason for this is that the current or the eddy provides very warm water deep below the surface which not only neutralises the effect of "upwelling" and allows a system to continue strenghtening but provides a boost to the system by supplying very water for it to pass over
ahh interesting, you think it will have any effect on the the S Caribbean blob?
well hi there stormw

the blog is like reunion week today !
All the regulars from last season showing up lol
Good to see, ya GG. Congrats on the National titles!
here is a shear forecast, we might be quiet, at least for the next 72 hours
Story

IMO it is way too early to even think of the blob developing into anything.
The loop current is only worth looking at if there is a system ( a TS or Hurricane ) to pass over it or an eddy breaks off and hangs around in the GOM.

yeah thats what I figured, April is never too early, kman, as long as its happened in the past it can happen in the future..once the shear goes down a bit more we will definitely start seeing activity
758. ryang
Hey Storm!!
in 1908 there was a formation on March 6th, and in 1992 there was one on April 21st, so although rare, not impossible
story

you r right, it can happen in April but only rarely so

Link
is the screen still stretched? for some reason that shear map does that
gotta go for now
bbl
I think we can see a Caribbean/Gulf disturbance as early as early-mid May if not sooner, given shear drops enough before then
im definitely not putting that in my predictions though lol
how many entrants so far?
there is a little problem because a lot of the people who do a lot of predicting with us don't start talking on the blog until the first storm strikes
dont call them off, hell if its just me and you it will still be fun, we can keep track of our predictions every year, it will be pretty cool to see how good we get
the individual storm contest will be the best one, I think everybody's just too lazy to do all that work, but its not too hard if you just correlate everything to your yearly predictions
i gotta head to the studio, ill be back later
775. OFAJ
JP
I am still working on my 07 predictions should finalize by Wed. Just have Sept - Oct Landfalls to figure. Hope you get enough interest to continue.
Is it National Blob Awareness Week?

It does help:


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 09 2007

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER
PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER E CUBA. A WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS ARE
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN
OVER THE AREA. THE TRADES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND A NARROW WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

Probably means our blob isn't all that and a bag of chips - just an enhanced shower.
LOL...

Windshear according to the GFS will drop pretty significantly in a small area in the caribbean during the next couple of days.Still dont think nothing will develope and will wait till mid june or early july.

(GFS on the 13th)

I say this, it hopefully means rain for south florida. thats all I am hoping it does for us.
That's what I say Plywood! Bring the Depression! It is free rain! Drought Buster! We need it bad, numbers are on the climb again!
For the 1st time all year we have more invests in the Northern Hemisphere than Southern Hemishpere. 2:1
If we don't get some rain this week, Martin will be back in the pink! Palm Beach and several other counties will join the club also.
There should be plenty of rain over Florida this week according to the GFS (I cant remember what a good rain looks like its been so long)- There is splotchy chance for severe weather until Friday - when there is a good chance for it in the S and SE.

There are some interesting spots crossing Florida starting the 11th on the combined mslp, precip
The MJO
I've had .08" all day in Melbourne. 1/2 that in the last hour. I's just checking out the MLB WRF model. Looks like Central FL maybe getting the bulk in the next 24.
I was looking at that JF! I am in the "I'll Believe It When I See It" mode now, lol. Too many false hopes this year so far! We really need an early Sub Tropical or Depression to kick this drought.
Never Fear Taco is here again this year....LOL

Hi everybody are we ready for this new Season of blonders and Blobs....
Wow, I use to come to this site for good information about the weather. Now Dr. Masters has become a global warming alarmist. What a pity.

I think I"ll go exercise but then again, I might create more C02. ;)

JP whats up and yes I will go over and check it out...



BRB

Taco:0)
SW Carib is starting to look interesting. Maybe keep an eye on this one....
Survivor - not an alarmist - a REALIST. The evidence is overwhelming.
Hurricanesurvivor, the question is not whether the earth is warming, because we can see that it is, and has been doing so for the last 10,000 years even with a few blips in the overall curve such as the Middle Ages mini Ice age and other such events, but whether humans, our pollutants, and other things are causing more than a negligible amount of Global Warming.
That blob will look like a wisp of clouds by tomorrow. It does look impressive now, but like 95% of last year's blobs, it will die.
G'nite all!

I see a crowd of last year's usual suspects are here tonight! Talk about old home week . . .

I noticed kman talking earlier about the abnormal wind from the NE, and I want to say - give me back my wind pattern! We've had more days with winds from the W and S than we usually see in the 1st three months of the year.
On that loop current map, I keep looking at the two super-loops on the west coast side of Panama . . . talk about fuel for a passing Twave . . .

Oh, wait.

No passing twaves so far . . .

Whew.
nice blob looks like a little burst of engery nuttin much be gone by dawn 07 will lull us to sleep storms come late after the heat
"Posted By: DocBen
thelmores - click on "education" above and then follow all sorts of other links Wunderground provides."

I'll do that friend..... thanks! :)

Night to all my weather friends....

Doing a little Research! Every year that transitioned from a warm phase to a cool phase early to mid year resulted in an active hurricane season. The most recent notables are 1995 and 2005. 1995 had 19 named storms and 2005 had 28. Dr. Grey also referenced some analog years prior to the recent warm phase, 1964 being the most active with 14 storms. Also interesting is the names for 1995 closely match the names for 2007!
South florida needs rain as does ALL of Florida. I was there and I know
Hurricane Myths! Hurricane Cycles run about 12 years.
bump
Well, Taz, it looks like we hit 800 for the first time this year. Imagine once the season actually starts! 1500+ posts a day will be the norm . . .
yes we are all most at 800 what try for 900 but dont think we will make it
at the end of an El Nio, surface currents return to their normal conditions, but they often first overshoot that condition, resulting in unusually cold waters along the Peruvian coast and in the eastern equatorial Pacific -- this unusually cold water along the equator causes the intertropical convergence zone (the doldrums) to shift northward, which then displaces the jet stream and leads to droughts in the U.S.

Both observations in the US this year!

credit to maritime.haifa.ac.il
This has already happend about a month ago and La Nina Continues to grow.
I have also read that La Nina increases the frequency of extreme cold waves - and we have had two this year so far (February and the past week):

The polar jet stream, which in an El Nio year stays high in Canada, moves farther south, driving frigid air down into the U.S. Winters are colder, especially in the northwestern and upper midwestern states. The subtropical jet stream that blows across Mexico and the Gulf during El Nio events weakens during La Nia; consequently, far less rain falls in the Gulf and southeastern states. Drought is common in the desert Southwest. Hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic encounter no westerly wind resistance and therefore are twice as likely to strike the U.S. The 1998 La Nia hurricane season was the deadliest in the past two centuries.


I wonder if it was a coincidence or not that winter was very warm until El Nino dissipated.
thats exacly what happen and continues to happen till la nina levels off then intense heat of summer starts its march north in late may by jul we may see the start of the 30 day heat wave temp at 100 or greater that will cover pretty much all of north america till the first intense storms of the season starts showing up by mid august.
Some of you might be interested in how the IPCC reports are put together...you may surprised and perhaps a bit dismayed.

Although there are many competent scientists in the various WGs (Working Groups), the Panel is directed by just a handful of scientists and an overwhelming majority of politicians who represent the 120 nations that comprise the Panel. This latter group is responsible for the SPM (Summary for Policy Makers). The WG reports usually run to about 30-50 pages; the SPM about 5-10. The SPM was released in February. The WG report issued last Friday was actually in completed draft form almost a year ago last May and was available on the Net shortly thereafter. If there are differences in the thrust of the SPM and WG reports, the differences must be settled before the combined (Synthesis) Report is issued, and differences there were.

Now if you really want to see how sausages are made, the regulations for accomplishing this can be found in paragraphs 4.3 to 4.4 of Appendix II: Procedures for the Preparation, Review, Acceptance, Adoption, Approval, and Publication of IPCC Reports. So, here is the kicker: Any differences between the science WGs report and the mostly politically orchestrated SPM Panel report must be resolved in favor of the SPM! What that means is that its the politicians, not the scientists who have the last word. This makes a complete mockery of what science is all about.

N.B. Since I just started posting here I'm a bit confused about the protocols and put this piece elsewhere. I'll try not to double-post in the future.
the high is building up

I've often thought that measuring hurricanes by highest windspeeds alone isn't really enough. Maybe someone in this community, or maybe Dr. Masters could propose an additional category based on how far hurricane force winds extend from the center of the storm. You could take the smallest on record, the largest and divide it into 5 categories. So Katrina for example might be a 5-5.
Any thoughts?
Nelson: War hurting hurricane efforts

JACKSONVILLE -- (AP) -- The war in Iraq has depleted the equipment inventory of the National Guard, potentially hampering its response to the predicted heavy hurricane season, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said.

The Florida National Guard has only 53 percent of the dual-use equipment it once had for responding to a storm or domestic disturbance, a recent analysis by the Government Accountability Office found. Texas, California and Louisiana also have about half of their dual-use equipment available to nondeployed Army National Guard forces.

''Problems from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have stretched the Florida National Guard further than ever before, leaving it without all the resources it should have for responding to a domestic crisis,'' Nelson said. ``Hurricane season is coming fast, and we need to make sure the Guard has what it needs.''

The hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, is predicted to be worse than recent years.

Florida has about 600 to 700 soldiers in Iraq. Members were sent overseas with their equipment, but when they come back, the gear often stays in the war zones.

The Florida Guard was down 500 Humvees, 600 trucks, short 4,000 pairs of night vision goggle and needed 30 more wreckers, spokesman Lt. Col. Ron Tittle said.

Yet Tittle said sufficient manpower and equipment remained to respond to a major hurricane, and additional supplies could be borrowed from other states or rented if needed.

But Nelson questioned the lag time and the fact that the other state Guard units also are facing the same depletion of equipment problems.

''I know that at the highest levels . . . they are concerned about this,'' Nelson, a Democrat, said.

Nelson said a memorandum of understanding between the Army and the National Guard could allow Gov. Charlie Crist to use Army Reserve trucks and generators upon the declaration of a state of emergency. Without such a memorandum, the governor has to go through a bureaucratic process to request that the president release Reserve equipment that is being held unused in Florida.



ALL Hurricane Advisories contain that info already. All Offical NHC advisories have the Hurricane force wind field..and HOW far the Hurricane force winds extend from the center. They also include How far out Tropical Storm winds extend out from the center.
I've been watching the drought in south FL...for the life of me...why wont it rain south of the tropic line?


Just thinking out loud, and feeling for you guys down there.

Maybe today is the buster!
Not likely cajun.. :(

you all know that the weather channel is Gods favorite sitcom
Thanks Patrap. True enough. I guess I was thinking that often we refer to a hurricane in shorthand as a cat 5, with no detailed report for obvious reasons. I just liked the idea of
a shorthand like 5-5 or 5-4. Point well taken though.
arrgg...vista is not loop or applet friendly
anyone know why I can't get the noaa models to loop? It will load and play sometimes and then sometimes nothing on all resolutions !@$#%%^@%^!
cajunkid - I think it has to do with the subsidence under the Farrell-Hadley cell boundary. That has shifted to higher latitude.
I don't know Cajun but it is getting pretty darn bad. The lake behind my house is about dried up, down 8 feet.
Your going to hate Vista in Advance applications. I ended up switching back to XP because I was running into so many problems. For everyday applications it is great but, in more advanced programs and software it is horrible.
My design software would not work with it and the manufacturer said it will be a year or more before it will be able to run with vista.
I can usually fix most things on my pc, but vista...another animal

Cane, thanks
looks like I'm gonna fire up the dinosaur
morning everybody! :)
Tech Support said it had to do with all the security verification. Things that used to automatically complete tasks now need verification that you want that to happen and it would shut down the program as a result.
Morning Thel
can anyone tell where the warmest water in the GOM is? Link
Cane, yea
you have to set almost every page/app. you view...its a royal pain
DocBen, at least FL has better roads than we do here in LA
argggg! Looks like the rain is gonna miss South FL today!
Now some ppl are saying the deforestation will stop global warming. Can we all just collectively go, "huh?"

Link to "Deforestation = Cooling" article
HopquickSteve....whole premise of that 'pseudoscientific' article is flawed. Forested areas may not reflect sunlight to the extent snow and ice does, but forests do not absorb nor concentrate heat. Cellulose lacks the density necessary for heat absorption. That's why you can handle leaves on a 100 degree sunny day, and not get burned. Try that with black asphalt.
What happens when the pine needles are covered with snow?

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