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The calm before the storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2005

The tropics are quiet today. The only area worth mentioning is the large tropical wave pushing off of the coast of Africa, which the UKMET model develops into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday. However, the GFS, Canadian, and NOGAPS models are all pretty ambivalent about the system and do not develop it much.

No hurricane season has ever gone at full tilt all the way from July to October. Active seasons have always had quiet periods when the large scale wind patterns alternate to a different mode, creating more wind shear over the tropics. This year, that quiet period is here now, and is forecast to continue for at least a few more days. However, this may change next week. The GFS model predicts that the high shear values that have dominated the Caribbean for the past few weeks will finally relax. And beginning Friday August 26, shear values may relax over the rest of the primary hurricane genesis area in the mid-Atlantic. The GFS shows an endless succession of tropical storms developing from tropical waves moving off of the coast of Africa beginning late next week. And from August 30 continuing through the end of the GFS's 16-day forecast period, the model predicts two and sometime three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. This prediction has been maintained over at least the past four runs of the GFS model, so it is not a fluke one can blame on a single bad model run.



Keep in mind that computer forecasts of specific tropical storms developing are VERY unreliable--particularly out seven days and more from now. The GFS is likely to be dead wrong about the specific timing of the tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa, which waves might develop into hurricanes, and where in the ocean they may develop. What is believable is the GFS's forecast of a fundamental shift in the general atmospheric circulation leading to an enhanced period of hurricane activity. If the GFS model is correct, the current time of calm will transition to a time of storms late next week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

navy link its labeled 97linvest

Link
there is 2 cyclones spinning next to each other in the pacific ocean near japan. now thats cool
thanks
1004. mobal
Yea , I have been watching the 2. I want to see how this plays out!
no thoughts on the tpc disscussion onwave at 20n 68w or the system crossing yuc, agree with you all on african systems
just dont understand the urgency in it yet. due to the nhc watching systems a lot closer to home. although its impressive
just think history tells us about 5percent for 10percent atl.
wait and see ifit goes in carrib. like ivan then we can get excited.
The NHC no longer associates any storm activity North of Puerto Rico with TD 10. so TD 10 is gone. Any further development would initiate a different number
1007. aquak9
(just a suggestion)
Ya'll should step away from the keyboards, go outside, and look to the east. Full moon, fat and happy, smiling and watching over the sleeping Atlantic. I don't think the next full moon will see things quite as tranquil. So go take a peak now.
Like I said, just a suggestion.
1008. moocrew
I know no one cares about the pacific but gfdl has Hillary becoming a cat 3 stroms before she fizzels. Good things she will not be near land when she becomes this strong. Though as we all know intensity models tend to be wrong so who knows.
normslly when you have 2 cyclones the will rotate around echother. i want to see if that happens. refering to the to cyclones in the west pacific
the outllok now callsfpr debvelopment of the african wave over the next day or so. they will probly make it a depression sometime tomm
79 i agree would be different system. no comments on history
of storms this far in east atlantic developing early. happened alot in 95. guess what only us landfalling hurricanes of the 19
named systems were opal and erin. which the disturbance 20n 68w
is about where erin started went from wave to hurricane in 24hrs.
Lefty, I always thought that two systems close together would rotate around each other, but can you explain this.
yeah they will. the second is only a depression so it does not have a larg circulation yet and the space between them is far enough apart but if the bigger one slows down they will begin to rotate around each other. would love to see that
You have to be careful with quickscat--rain contamination can cause the estimated wind values to be WAY higher than reality. Are those 35-45 knot extimates in rain free areas or in rainy convective areas?
Even though you may already read this I thought you should read it again. . .

The updated discussion. . .
AR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW
IS
ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ
WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

Wave 2. . .
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO
THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.


If the computer models are right there may be a tropical storm that is about to form from the wave off of africa and the central atlantic wave(which asorbed td 10) is moving over favorable conditions and may develop. This may be the beginning of the active tropical cyclone period of development that the GFS called for. I think that there will be a named storm by the end of the weekend and there will be two named storms by wednesday or earlier. The wave off of Africa may already be a depression. Once the other low dissappears, this wave will likely rapidly develop into a named storm. Things are getting really intresting.
1016. iyou
lefty420 - i don't know if have these sites yet - you might like them : http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.atl.html http://www.ssmi.com/tmi/tmi_daily.html - all sorts of goodies at - www.remss.com - i hope i got them right!
hi iyou
that is what i said in 2 prior comments i guess no one wants to awnser old ms. coast guy lol ps what you think about 1995 compariso. 19named only 2 hitting us as hurricanes,
Sometimes tropical systems can rotate around each other--also if the systems both gave good outflow the anticyclones on top of each storm can repel each other. The outflow from a strong hurricane can be lethal for a weaker storm--when Hugo encountered Iris in 1989 Iris was a healthy tropical storm with winds of 60 knots and had every appearance of being about to turn into a hurricane. But the outflow from Hugo sheared Iris apart and completly destroyed her.
1020. iyou
hey jeff! st.simonsislandgaguy - you mentioned hours ago water temp. was 90 deg. -what is a normal temp. for this time of year? thanks
hey iyou i have my blog back and more photos of the puppies
1022. Jedkins
HUGO MURDERED IRIS!!!JK lol.
Night all - tomorrow should be interesting with the system off Africa and perhaps 10 as well.
JED HI!!!!!!
1025. iyou
jeff, i saw that and good for you! i have some sites i'll post there - cya - do not want to clutter this blog up ;-(
damnn! Lefty did you see the new frame on that link you posted? The 3-hour east atlantic IR....
yea she is blowing up
1028. SMU88
I want to thank everyone that has posted in here. I have learned so much, especially with the links. I like the Navy site. Is there any site that I could go to see the BAM models?
finally some kindness thanks smu88
where's stormtop? lol
dont know and dont want to know
lol he got pie in his face from me. he was expecting the wave to fall aprt when i was in here this morning saying exactly what the nhc cenetr said at 805 pm. if u read my posts from earlier u will see that. to the guy who asked me about the winds probably rain flagged but my point is that it has atleast td stregth winds but we will see. will be td 11 by tomm evening i suspect though the nhc is conservative
oh lefty what flavor cherry or apple
lol
lol cherry i think u should ask him though lol
Ok I always do this for storm when they seem about to develop and I guess I can do it here too. A little history.
Lets say this storm forms around 13,25. Fair enough location.

In the month period center around this time 23 storms have formed there in history
4 hit SE coast, 1hit carribean, 2 the canadian maritimes.
So strictly speaking history this storm has about a 1/3 chance of landfall and only 4%chance of enetring the carribean.

Now to the models, the nogaps and GFS show the high to its' north breaking down and this storm turning out to sea harmlessly. So my initial take on the system of africa is that most liklely it will go out to sea harmlessly. This belief could change on further data, but right now this seems most likely.
ha ha funny lefty ill go for apple
the navy has the senter at around 10.5 or something like that. that 13 is way to high.
but with all systems, we can't take models yet cause they have no exact center fix. but its so far out to say anything for sure
I'm just going by the discussion above with the center at 13N and the latest Meteosat image, though w/o visible there is a wide variation of center locations. Also based on the curvature in the TMI picture 13seems rite, but 12 could be legit too.
Models aside, just take a look at this Link

Center of circulation is CLEARLY evident, incredible banding is taking place, this is definately the largest and healthiest wave that far east this year. If you take a look at the loop available for the above link, you will notice that the area of convection has roughly doubled (maybe even more) since leaving the coast of Africa.
Obviously a more southern postion will lead to a difference in similar storms(how much I don't know yet)and that why I say later data could change things. I've forecasted long enought o leave mucho wiggle room. Though if the models are anywhere close on the evolution of the high, this thing could start at 8 and still do the tour of the open ocean.
its hard cause u have 2 vort maxes rotating around each other. one will be aborbed, the one to the north as the system wraps itself up so what is the center now might be more north or south of their when the other low dissipates so it will be difficult for anyone or computer model to accurately forcast a track. that was my thought this morning thats my thought tonight and that is the thought of the nhc
yeah that vapor loops looks good. that center on the north of all that convection also where it appears to be a cirle opening in the 37ghz microwave imagery but i also saw a possible center to the south in the 87 ghz imagery
I agree lefty, I'm just thinking aloud largely right now. We'll have a much better idea in vis tomorrow and then we can really get down to forecasting. Also its important to see the model trends in the hi to the north. Last night the longer range had a fairly strong high and I remeber looking and thinking, uhoh this ain't good. But now its breaking it down more, so we'll just have to see if they keep flip floping or a real trend is seen.
Just strikes me as a very healthy system. Just noticed FNMOC issues images on it now. Wonder when the early guidance models will start being issued.
i also thing strength always plays into track so a weaker system might recurvemore than a mssive storm so we also need some ships and gfdl models determining strength for the longer period past say day 3
yes it is extremly healthy looking. i do think nhc is being conservative on the speed that this will itensify and ofcourse i would do the same but i think it could honestly be a hurrican in 2-3 days tops
Already looks like a tropical depression for all intensive purposes. I don't think it will be long before this huge wave becomes Jose.
exactly how i feel
well, the new GFS sucks a$$
Makes me wonder what this wave is going to look like in 120 hours if it continues west in the ever increasing warmer water.

Major hurricane anyone?
click this link and set the speed as fast as you can looks so awsome. if u do not have a good connection do not do it. it is a ir loop of soon to be td 11

Link
tell me what u think. look at the awsome out flow and the banding is incredible
Lefty, just a question out of curiousity. Would it bother you if the storm did strengthen but recurved before it even got to the islands?
no i love to watch them form and than just do what mother nature has in mind. now i would perfer a east coast landfall cause my wife won't let me chase a storm in the gulf as i live in va. my point to everyone so worried about it is until we have a storm named and a center set the models will tell us what ever it wants and watch it will all change. we can't really forcast past 3 days anyway. just trying to keep people thin like a forcaster and not a fanatic which all of us are
remeber if u loom at all the posts from earlier today i was trying to tell people what this storm was doing and once they realised it was most likely going to form everything went to track and models and i am like hey relax. when it makes landfall or recurves and dissapates its gone for ever. lets watch her birth and watch her grow up and worry bout where she will or won't go later.
yea...fish storms don't really do it for me.
As a couple posters have mentioned, the GFS just keeps turning this new system north sooner with each run. It does initialize the system at around 13 degrees north, but immediately develops it and moves it steadily wnw on the south side of the strong Azores high. The key feature of the GFS is the western Atlantic trough, which it is predicting to only get stronger and more stubborn with each run. Whether the new storm forms at 11N, 13N, or 15N, if the GFS is correct about the strength and placement of the trough then this thing has little chance to threaten land. But, the GFS could be completely wrong several days out as we all know.
oh ofcourse i want to see it make landfall, and no one is hurt and nothing is destroyed but thats like 2 weeks away. shes on the verge of being a depression and will rapidly reach hurricane strength. the one thing u never see much is the birth of these storms, how they form , thats what i love, a cloud becomes this awsome storm. man i love this
see so much concern on the track. why, it will all change as it always does and thats one model of like 15 man
yea, it's that trough that's pissing me off. It seems a bit unrealistic IMO how long it just sits there and keeps spinning out lows. I want to see the new Euro and see if it shows the same thing because I would put my money on the Euro before the GFS....
lets comment on things we see about the formation. i gave yall a really cool link i want yall to check out, itslike a couple posts up. click on it and set the speed to really fast and just watched. than tell me what u see. throw track out the window right now
Lefty, what do you think will come of it in the end?

It's 4:20 in 3 hours and 37 minutes. I hope your prepared. :)
lol naw not anymore. taking a break. got all my extra money going into new xbox 360, some games and my hurrican chase fund. i am not 13 lol i am 25 wit 2 kids and a wife. i think she will reach mjor status and think she will cross the atlantic like they always do but landfall i dunno. if she goes towards the east coast so many factors could recurve it and if it goes into the carribean those poor folks in florida could be under the gun again
plus my wife won't let me bgo to florida to chase her. i think we agreed on sc being as far as i can go with my car lol but when your married nothing is urs anymore
Playstation 3 all the way. 420 is all day.

I'm in Florida and wouldn't mind seeing this storm head my way, its just the loss of air conditioning that I hate when you lose power from a Cane. Went through Jeanne and Frances last year, less than 20 miles from landfall.
Iyou, the water temp reaching 90 here at buoy 41008 has NEVER happened before. This buoy is located 28 miles east of the central GA coast.
click this link. set it to really fast. trust me its awsome

Link
I hear you all the way on the marriage. You can always watch Jim Cantore if you can't make it down to Florida to ride it out.

I'm thinking this is going to go alot further west before curving than the GFS shows.
i want to watch the devlopment of the cdo man this is awsome
yeah me 2. though twc makes me sick some times, i love cnns coverage, its always the end of the world on cnn, lol
I love the exhiliration from 100 mph winds sucking the air from your lungs, never miss that.
thats what i am saying. thats why i need a east coast storm lol, u might see me on cnn blowing down the road
i am getting both the 360 and the ps3. they both going to be awsome
damn latest microwave sat missed the storm sucks, couplde hours till another passage of another sat that sucks
omg the trimm sat missed the storm as well. gotta wait a couple more hours for the next sat
The new models seem to be unanimous that the new system will turn north fairly quickly and never come close to any land. In fact, the models turn it north so soon that if they are right this storm will never even reach the real warm water. It is all about the western Atlantic trough. The models predict it will not only put the kibosh on the Bermuda high, but will also break down and shove eastward the big Azores high currently in place.
Everyone look at this, I don't know what it means for shure so I need a little help. This is something that I have never seen before. Someone explait it.

Link

This one too. . .
Link
It seems that there are already sone dark reds on this.

And this last one. . .
Link
Look at the outflow on that one.

Can anyone tell me what this means?
lol to the hawkeye, do u drink much. you are trying to determine the track when this storm has not fully formed nor has a definit center been located. so where does the models intitliase the storm. lol man there is so many variables and the storm doesn't form for 2-3 days in most models so speed, strength aand center location, 3 things we don't know will play into the models. all models are inaccurate for tracks prior to the actual formation of a storm and for a couple days afterwood for those reasons i just stated above. now they could be right who knows, not you are me. my point is it is so premature to say anything about track that ursetting urself up for failire. this is why i have not said one word about track cause i would be wrong. passing wrong info to people who don't know any better is harmfull so please stop posting about the track till after we have a formed storm. now u right down the lat and log of the center of the storm in 120 hrs for all the models and see how far off they are in 2 days when the storm forms. just my point of view i know but so many people are so concerned about hwere she is going when 10 hrs ago none of you would even listen to me tell yopu this thing is getting more organised. track is bs at this point and i hope you know that
the storm does seem to be forming quite far south....if it moves under the control of the deep easterlies it might not have to contend with that western Atlantic trough. Also, the Euro and UKMET seem to show the ridge building back in after the trough lifts out. If "Jose" were far enough to the south and didn't get a chance to fully recurve, it would likely start heading west again. I think we should wait and see how this thing moves once it has formed, if it stays consistently south of the guidance I'd say there is a good shot at keeping this one.

For what it's worth, it seems to be moving WSW right now....
yeah thats what i saw too in the movement. u know it just pisses me off, these people come in here and they want to be the first with this or that. i would never speculate on a track for a unformed storm, nor would i say anything for a couple days as for longer forcast we use model consitency to forcast. he is going to end up like stormtop wit pie in your face for trying to call the forcast. to this day i have yet to see a storm followthe first few model runs let alone the ones prior to formation. remeber irene was suppos to head straight north, that was days after fromation did it, no it came awfully close to the us and for atleast one dayy all he models had it making landfall in nc. tracks are the trickest part aside from intensity. save urself the trouble and just chill on the track. we have so much more to occupy us watching her form and what not
yeah, I guess you're right. I just think some of us are already haunted by the recurves thus far this season. I don't know if I can handle another one, lol.
it happens u know, i love ot watch them as much as watch or experience a landfal. its just to damn early to even say the word track is all i am trying to say. anyone who believes the model runs right now does not have much experience watching and forcasting these storms. period
Well, the models aren't TOTALLY useless. If they show a ridge to the north, or a massive trough, that kind of matters...
and i never said anything about that, i just said that we also need to know the things about the storm that will be affected, ie strength of storm, center location, and speed of movement. all important we do not know. i think i have found the llc of the storm. its just south of the cape verde isalands and sw of the second low that is and has been dissipating in the latest ir and vis loops. it has a ball of convetion blowing up above if. if you click on the visible ir and set the speed fast you can see the low clouds rotating around that are as well as the second area of rotation under the disipating low. the convection is blowing up right ontop of it a sign it is getting better organised, most of the other convection or bands are to its west and soutth though i suspect the convection and cludiness associated with the second low will wrap around the north side of the llc as another feeder band
its about 11n and 21.5w about there
11 N would be super, lol.
if u click the link i provided earlier and set the speed faster you will see the clouds at trhe surface spinning around and a ball of convection blowing up right over it. when it gets more convection at the center we will se td 11

you can also see the dieing circulation of the low to its nw that will get wrapped into the prominent sothern low
the convection over the center is blowing up. cdo feature is developing with banded convection to its south and east. it should grow to its north when the second low to its north finishes dissipating as it has started doing during the last few hours.really getting better organised and would not be suprised if it is classified as a td anytume from now. most likely at the 1100 am or 530pm advisories
well guess ite bed time be back tomm morning around noon i guess peace out
lata
1093. 147257
11n sucks i live on 12 N hope the storm will move NW
1094. 147257
when they will upgrade it as a depression
Good Morning :)
Does anyone think that the remnants of TD-10 will develop into a depression before they reach us in The Bahamas? Also, I saw that the models have it crossing through Cuba into the Gulf. Since an earlier post stated that it appears to have reformed further east of the original location, does anyone think that the new feature could cause it to affect the Northern Bahamas even more?
well its netween 11n ans 12n and in the latesty sat images i see the curvature and the formation of the eye wall
no td 10 is dead. just a mid-level swirl causing showers. theres no low p[ressure and no surface circulation
just so yall know i was refering to microwave sat images not vis or ir
1099. aquak9
lefty you can function on 4 hours sleep?
1100. newinfl
lefty, I don't know anything about these storms but I have read a lot of your entries this morning and find your comments very enlighting. How long have you been tracking storms for development? Like you comments about not predicting paths till storm develop and have some sort of pattern to them. I have been in the FL panhandle since last september and now find the need to keep up on this weather.
Far east Atlantic tropical wave is showing banding in all quadrants wrapping around the center. Sattelite signature continues to look impressive in both size and structure of 97L-soon to be Jose. NHC claims it has potential for development in the next few days, but it has the appearance of at least a depression.
stormtop is right here..i still havent seen no depression yet lefty..you have the rest of the day to prove yourself...it looks a little better then it did last night but i still see no closed circualtion...
1103. 147257
ok what track is it moving now?
if i were you all i would be worried more about the southern gulf right now...once this thing gets out over the southern gulf today it has a good chance to strengthen and with that cool front coming down to sit right on top of us this thing if it develops has a good chance to be drawn up to the north..then we will have our worst nightmare if that happens..they are watching it closely it has lots of deep convection with it...the waters are +90 degrees down there so it wouldnt take much to explode..
to lefty i agree tpc is slow on classifying but this thing still has zebra dump on it its so far away gfs turns everything north. if it gets to 50w and below 16 north then it will be something to track oterwise unless you are a sword fisherman i would not spend so much time on it.
1106. 147257
southern golf?
stormtop- TD10 is at 70n 20w the center right?
Im so sorry to pop in here, but this is my first post. I love this website and watching the weather, but Im just a lurker and a learner. Could someone explain what the GMT time is? Id like to follow these blogs, but I need to figure out what time they are. Thanks so much.
This was posted on TWC website about an hour ago...

"The remnants of Tropical Depression #10 appear to be on a reorganization effort off the coast of the Dominican Republic this morning. A circulation center is evident - at least in the mid-levels of the atmosphere - on satellite pictures. Should this circulation center reach the surface the system could be reclassified as a tropical depression. Its general motion is off to the west and could be near southern Florida in the next 3 days."

Is this something that really could develop and affect South FL?
Well, take care all, I am no longer going to participate in a forum with clueless scumbags like Stormtop and now Lefty.
to stormtop i agree about all the hype over a system destined
to catch fish is puzzeling. but the yuc system will never go
past 22 north. the little midlevel at 20n 68w weak as it is is our only threat. just a thought which is probably up for debate.
whirlwind im talking about the southern gulf something the nhc has been saying since yesterday.....look the convection is on the yucatan pen right now should move into the southern gulf sometime today..you could get rapid strengthing out of this if it takes a north course and it would not be a fast course about 10mph...
Stormtop insists it could suddenly reorganize and blow up.

Stormtop- I gotta say, nothing has developed before Sunday, like you said. Neither has anything in the Gulf developed either. You gotta raise my confiende in you....

The African wave looks nice. IF it can stay south it can avoid being turned northward, as I believe, and continue west.
Ah yes, I thihnk I see that convection, its barely in view.
Does look interesting...!
thats your opinion i seen data that says otherwise ..the viper has it moving on a possible northerly couse drawing it up ..the cool front that is sitting right on us will be there a few days according to viper...this thing will develop once in the guld the nhc develops it and strengthens it...all im saying if it moves north we have a problem..its someting to watch...where is this td 11 it hasnt formed yet i see...i will give you 2 guesses why dust and the dry air that got in the system...well lefty you have today i will let you have until midnight and i still say your depression wont form...the ones coming off the coast now they will have no problem...
whirlwind im talking about the thing over the yucatan not the old td 10..that is dead gone burried...
OMG Hawkeyewx...there goes the last rational one
anyone have any thought on the latest Weather Channel statement about TD 10 (in my last post).....this matters to many people in the islands and South Florida. Thanks.....
I wish the good Dr. would give us his thoughts. Might settle things down here before they get started.
yeah...not trying to get anyone excited....but this really matters to me. I have many things to tie down etc...even if we only get a strong tropicl storm. I do not take any chances.....
to storm i appreciate you whether i agree or not with you on
all tpics at least you awnser my post. was on last night and
after you and hawk left i could not get a reply. maybe they
dont like 40 year old s/la./s/ms. guys. once again i agree with
you about afr. wave to far away. but i still cant see yuc system being athreat to our area. how a oyster poboy from dinnys on it lol.
Storm..not talking about TD10 anymore, if it does come to FL its harmless.
talking about the yuk storm that you brought up. i was saying it looks nice
where is lefty at as soon as i come on he runs..where is that tropical depression lefty why do you think it is not developing....dust lefty that got inside the circulation...i told you if that was any kind of system it would have developed by 5 am this morning...whats wron lefty the microwave doesnyt show up the banding anymore and its also does not have any heavy convection in it to speak of...well lefty we will see....
Ok my thoughts:
Former TD 10: Even if something comes of this it is too close to land masses currently, and will probably run into Cuba. Also E to NE shear very strong ahead of system. I would say no development.

Gulf of Mexico: if something develops here would move into Mexico as flow is strong out of the E and SE. Would not have too much time to develop.

Wave off Africa: Here is the one that will develop!! Just needs to gain alittle lattitude, but it is looking good already. Will probably see a depression here by tomorrow.

Have a good day all!! See ya Stormtop!! Keep that Viper going!!..lol..
Stormtop and Lefty I understand you all disagreeing with what each other has to say about the storms. That is fine but when it takes someone 45 minutes to read what is being said and it is the same thing over and over why do you all keep arguing? My teenagers now better then this.

Let's just try and keep it toned down today. PLEASE!
lol you right saint but the viper has been great this season ....i have to think it picked up some change that will take place...we have rain in outr forecast today...it was supposed to be extrtemely hot for the next 3 days temps in the upper 90s...i think viper has picked up the low to the south in the yucatan and its stationary..this will keep that thing ifd it develops moving on a more north course thewn west...i see where you coming from the flow is westerly in the southern gulf but i think thats going to change
Ok Storm, We will pit your viper against me. I say if Gulf of Mexico storm develops, it moves into Mexico. Viper says it moves north. Ok we will see if the Viper is king..lol
raysfan i agree different opinions are fine but not rdicule
storm talk to me i might not agree but i will not ridicule
just dont argue with them just get your blood pressure up, and phrase by one of your native no. sums it all up ifs and buts
candies and nuts if the queen had a different anatomy she would have been the queen.
1129. towlady
Hawkeyewx, don't take things so seriously. This is just a blog, and Stormtop is entertaining if often uninformed. Lefty is interesting, and obviously fascinated with tropical weather. The opinions they offer can be wrong, as can yours. Those of us who for the most part have been silently reading the blogs and enjoying the comments, have enough sense to know what is what. Name calling, and leaving the blog because you disagree, is very childish, and your loss.
Hiya :)
Thanks for the responses about Td-10 remnants and our islands. My son was born in time last year to got through Frances and Nassau and Jeanne in Miami Beach. Just keeping an eye on anything tropical these days :) Ironically, all the weather we are supposed to get for the next 48 hours (heavy rain, thundershowers, etc.) is from a system north of us -- go figure :)
lol weatherguy ....im just giving my opinion like you are giving yours..did you look at the stationary low off to the s of the yucatan and also the high over mexico before you made your forecast....lol
I tried to read everything but stopped. Understand you all want to stand your ground but enough is enough.

why did hawk leave the blog...i respect his opinion more then i do leftys thats for sure..i think he knows that...
mybahamas hope you and us fair better this year.
i don't have to worry bout stormtop. evrything i said yesterday was also said by the nhc later in the day and now when not if the wave will form is the concensus
yeah god forbid i be right huh
the later the better lefty....better chance it will stay south if it takes a bit longer to organize...
Lefty I am the ametuer on this forecasting, but have an eye for the forming storms. I think that they will calll this sometime today. I really thought that it would be called jose by 5:00 tonight. I think that Hurricane center is just be conservitive on this. It is to far out for them to call right now.
Think this one mught be are cat 5. WIth all the octane fuel ahead of it. But sure wish that it would go further North for the Islands and the US.
well i thought that too but when i placed the center last night it was exposed with most of the covection to the south and west. since than over night that big blob of convection has grown over the center so while looking immpressive yesterday she was very unorganised. she is betetr looking today and is now probly a td, should be one by to night anyway
lefty you said we would have a depression by 5pm this evening..im generous ill give you until midnoght and we wont have a depression because the dust got in the system while it was over africa...why cant you see this if you claim you know so much.....i dont want any excuses lefty if it doesnt develop by midnight tonight all that b/s yesterday for nothing...i will tell you this anything that comes off the coast now will develop quicker because the dust has left ..the trade winds have let up....so lefty im looking at it and it sure looks like it lost lots of oits banding and convection is light to moderate...we will see...
i agree with raysfan it appears 2 people have a debate and they ignore the rest of us after 10 comments and no replies i see why hawk left and i raysfan i guess they dont see our comments.
its ashame i waited a long time to join this and it 2or3 people
control the comments and ignore everyone else. oh well its sunday. god bless to all
Same to you and yours Rays. I just built a new home here and am still waiting for my storm shutters to come in from FL. Already bought some 5/8" plywood as a hasty plan B :)
it's not Jose, or even a TD yet, because the convection isn't over the center. The circulation is broad and still not warranting of TD status...
not to worried about if it stays south or north, most of the models have no grasp on a track now, how could they to many unknowns about the system, so all the talk about it going north or this and that is just bs. most deep atlantic storms will make it to the leeward islands and than go north or continue west. so i am wating for classification than we will worry about track
YES Mr. Storm i looked at it all before i made my forecast. High pressure is expected to retrograde west from the SE U.S, as trough sets up along East Coast, thus blocking storm from moving North. Thank you Stormy.
saint i answer you and everone else thats not true what you are saying about me and you guys know it....
no the convection is over the center now and has been for 6 hrs or so. also microwave imagery looking better impressive. the center and a llc is lovated beneath the blob of convection south of the cape verde isalnds.
I agree lets wait to see what happens when they get a better grip on this before we make any forecasting.
no weatherguy im talking about the high pressure building over mexico....
if u read my post from late last night i located a llc in sat imag and watched as tthe convection grew over it as the second low to the north dissipated. now you might still see the exposed circulation from the second low but that is not the main circulation of the storm. that second circulation is and hasbeen winding down as it gets rotated into the main circulation
since that time the organzation of this storm has increased and a cdo feature has devloped over the llc hence my feeling towards a td at this time, i also saw the begginings of an eye wall in the most recent microwave sat passes.
Well that could pull it slightly NW but not North. Just cant see it going North. But we will see..Have a good day all time to have some fun in the sun.
lefty i will leave it at this..it sounds like you are making excuses already fotr this wave..whats wrong lefty the water temps are in the mid 80s why isnt this thing developing like you said...i will say it once again and it will be over..you will not have a depression by midnight because the dust has gotten clogged up in your engine lefty............lol ok im done...
storm read my posts i said 24-36 hours from yesterday wich would be about 5om monday which falls inline with the nhc. i stated that hours befor they even mentioned the storm as you so pointed out to me yesterday. next i would not be supprised if it was named by 5pm as you continue to challenge me when we should yesterday i do have some sense of what i am saying.


now to the guy who felt un noticed i just got ontoday as my net went down for an hr so i will be glad to answer and reply to anything u have to say
what are you talking about. it is forming an eye wall, has a cdo feature and looks better organised than yesterday. i also did not have all the info i have now on the storm ie. microwave imagery to determine the llc and see the organasation. stormtop id u do not see a healthy storm on the verge of depression status why are u here. you constantly challenge me and as of yet i have not been wrong. even the nhc backs what i said 7 hours befor they did. what do u want, do u want me to pinpoint an exact time, intesity or better yet the exact point of landfall. my posts give credible info based on information availible to anyone, what do you have, lot of spite for being wrong over and over again.
I have a request...links to highs and ridges coming and going would be nice....

and which microwave do u use to see the potential center of the wave? 85Ghz or higher?
ok lefty you said this at 5pm saturday...i will give you to 5am monday morning not a minute longer..i need to say just like i told you your wave has changed very little over the past 24 hours and this is from the nhc...they have a plane standing by for the southern gulf monday morning...ok lefty i believe thats 36 hours 5am monday morning....
i used 85 ghz as it was the most recent that didn't miss the storm as well as visible and infared, i first noticed the circulation on visible last night when it was exposed, it since has been covered and a cdo feature is developing. here is the link to the image of the forming eye wall. its directly south of the cape verde islands. very distinct hook

Link

tellme what you think
between 8N and 9N I do see a almost circular feature of the wave... how often does that get updated?
storm are you still throwing things the nhc says at me. remeber when i comented on the 2 vort maxes orlows hours befor they said a word and now you still want to throw stuff at me lol thats funny. you could give me 2 xmas the storm will form when she forms though another 24 hrs seems about right specially since the llc has only been covered by convection for 6-8hrs also the northern low is gone as it was holding back the system and the second low is stronger now 1009 when yesterday it was 1011. i gave links and info all you have is a nhc outlook that had 3 sentences
no in the link i provided its between 10 and 12 and thats where i saw the exposed llc and is where the cdo feature has devloped and now majority of convection is concentrated there. there are 5 sat in orbit so when they pass over at varying times we get new images. problem is they often miss storms at lower altitudes so we may not get a good img till tonight again. if you go look at the west pacific storm you will see what a forming eye wall looks like and be able to compare the 2
l
efty what about the comment i posted have anything to add?
storm i heard on wwl the other day if we have a big storm headed to big easy they want use superdome for shelter since
during george they stole the seats. and give benson excuse to
raise ticket prices. lol. storm remember juan? shows what kind of disaster a cat 1 can do. it did more backward loops then arron brooks lol.
not sure which one u are commenting about ask again and i will comment
lefty it looks ok it doesnt look spectacular...something is keeping it from developing lefty this thing is almost pass 30 degrees its the dust lefty that it got on the african coast in its system...it has to much dry air in the center of it and its not going to let this develop into a depression until it gets way passed 30 degrees...like i said if it dont develop by 5 am monday morning then you just donrt have a strong system there..i would refer you to the new nhc report that just came out..they say and i quote your wave has changed very little in the last 24 hours...lets talk to other people on here its not fair to leave these people out of the conversation...the one i give more respect to anyone is hawk he knows waht he is talking about....im sorry he left i wish he would come back...
yes saint i remeber juan what a disaster how much rain we had around 17 inches in a 36 hour period right?im not surprised about the superdome lol thats funny who the hell would want the seats...well this is naturally naw orlens...
lol its not past 30 degress the center is about 11n 24.5west per lkm ir vis amd microwave imagery. its a forming td storm, what do you want a cat 5 in the 17 hrs i have been wacthing her. take a chill pill and listen, i have continued to point out its ups and downs,, i explained it had an exposed llc last night just recently 6-8 hrs covered and cdo feture and a better microwave signature. i am stating the facts and science, u don't even know where the center is lol now thats funny and you want to comment on whats happening you have no clue
lefty..

Link

on that vapor link,,the eye or something looks like its there..no?
Storm hawk left because of all the bikering like alot of others have done. Now wer have o go to so many different blogs to see what others have to say. If all this would stop maybe we can get back to the way that it was but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

not saying that anyone is right or wrong but if you read through this blogs you will see.
whirlwind looks to be forming.
no just an apearance of one. water vapor is really not the greatest for finding a formming eye wall or center in a weak storm. now if it was hurricane strength it would be helpfull but right now its harder to see it. it took me hrs tofinally locate the llc as i didnot have all the info in from the sat img and finally saw it in visible last night. microwave data is your best shot at determining a center as it is basically like radar. so go by microwave imager right now. they link iprovided and will provide again shows the formming eye wall in the cdo i noted in the ir loop

Link
storm here is one for you to throw at lefty for conv now not ridicule guys 1995 once again 19 named storms only 2 hurr hit us opal oct formed in carr. erin aug 1 formed at 72w all these
other mj hurr formed 40 and east and chased swordfish john hope always said form before 40w they go fishing if this stays as strong wave and enters carrib then look out remember camille did not form into a tropical storm just south of cuba. same for freddy and elena. on your yuc system will develop but cant go
past 22 north 40 to 50mph winds in c/n gulf just a thought.
lefty i will say this one time there is no defineable center in your wave..if there was the nhc would of issued a tropical depression advisory...the dust is keeping it from developing lefty im sorry..i did not say the thing was passed 30 degrees i said if it did develop it would not until its way past 30 degrees more like 40 degrees before you get ant appeciable amount of development...ok lets end this until 5am monday morning then we will see who is right...
if you click on my link than go to pas-mosiac it shows all the recent usefullmicrowave passes from all the sats orbiting. if you look at all the ssmi 85ghz as it has the most recent ones you will see the evolution of the forming eye wall i am speaking of. makes it reall easy to see tryit and let me know. heres the link again

Link
thres a center cuae theres alow pressure closed circulation. it has to meet all criteria to be tropical and i belive it does not meet all criteria as of yet with the llc only being covered by convection for a few hours it will take time for surface winds to reach clasification strength. u can saying how u feel, this is not how i feel this is the info on the img and a couple of us have given many links with great imgs that if u took 30 mins to use u would see alot better than you do now
GUYS THERE YOU GO AGAIN... THIS ARE YOUR ALL VIEWS.... NO NEED TO KEEP UP THE ARGUING.

AND YES I KNOW MU CAPS ARE ON.
MY
he is arguing. i have provided link after link stating what i see. not once has he commented on anything i have shown. i am always haveing to defend the science and facts. u should direct comments to storm as i have been on here almost constantly for 2 days providing links and info to anyone who asks sometimes repeadtly. he has not offered one peice of meteroligical data to support his claims.
1180. towlady
I see obvious banding in Lefty's link, but
isn't it too early in the evolution of the storm
for an eyewall to develop? I have no background in
meteorology at all, just 50 years as a coastal resident, and an interest in the weather that affects us. To you or anyone else who can explain, I thank you.
you right ray ill leave for he will talk to you guys ill be back later when it becomes a depression to congrats him or i will be right with the dust....have a great day saint and everyone here..good luck lefty...you worked hard and i almost hope you win...
I understand that. i agree with what you are saying and you have been right. But... All this is just making things worse I can tell you both are STRONG HEADED men but if you know storm like I have watched him the last couple of weeks he is not going to back Down. Wether he is right or wrong

When this storm will form I don't know that. I am not good But Storm this is going to be JOSE.
no, all storms from a depression to a hurrican form an eye wall. the stringer the storm the more verticle it will be hence the evolution of an eye. when looking at a forming storm you look for the formation of an eye wall while in most weak storms like a depression it may not be closed you will finally get one when it reaches ts strength. easiest way to look at is all cyclones have the same mechanics. just the stronger and more concentrated it is u change the name from a depression to a ts to a hurricane. now the evolution of an eye wall feture as i see in the link shows that the storm has good outflow and is organising.
i am not trying to argue with him ray. you were on here with me all lst night. u know i stse what i see and provide links. he was outright atacking me and showing his failing knowledge of this storm atleast. if he wants to provide me with imgs and what not and i see something to support his claims i will be the first one to point it out or show him how he miss read it. i feel he has not looked at the data and only a ir loop. i have been busy watching this thing all night. i got off for 4-5 hrs tops. i continue to state what isee even to state an exposed circulation late last night in my posts. that would suggest a weaker system than i first thought based on data. thats how i work and i have to support the data cause thats all we have aside from our"feelings" on something
raysfan i agree with you i guess ill leave storms gone and lefty refuses to awnser me if he would scroll up he would see the comments im tired of retyping. storm hang in there buddy.
lefty you can talk to rest of us but i guess its more fun to
provoke storm. sorry storm us old guys have to stick together lol. p.s rays fan i will talk with you you sound like me sports
nut/tropic nut now i know how you buc fans felt till you won superbowl.
here is a lkm vis sat lool you guys. its hard to see cause its so close up but you can see the llc underthe convection interacting with the llc from the previuse low to the nrth. you can also see the degradding of the northern llc as the convection to the south continues to grow avoer that llc

Link

will take some time to load sobe patient and set speed to fast so its easier to see
I agree with you lefty and I will say........ YOU HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONGWITH THIS.
dude i replied do u not see my post
lol he did not seemy post thats his fault. i wasted time typing that out for nothing
I think that we were all fooled by it last night. But Storm I have or had not seen any signs that point to the dust being in this storm i really think we are not getting a total view on this die to it being so far to the south. What ever it was that came off the coast with this went far to the north of this storm. Sorry about that.

but you did say the 21 st and that is TODAY

and ray its not about being right. i just don';t state anything idon't see in data. thats how forcasting works. if i call for a snow storm in my area and i love snow would it be fair to call for 10 inches when the potential mosture would only support 3 inches no so to be accurate u gather as much data and i stated that yesterday i had limited data and did my best, today i have so much more data now it will be easier to see all of this evolve
lol did u see me reply to sainthurrifan and he said i didn't reply. that pisses me off. i typed a long paragraph for his viewing and he did not see it nor look hard enough. that really ticks me off
Yes Saint I am a sports fanatic and a trop. fanatic. Really didn't think that i would find people like me out here but finally did. My family and friends call me Hurricane Berta because I am always watching these things.. GO BUCS.
But lefty that is my point. There was so much going on with you and storm that you could not really find out answers to any questions.. Make it to him. Copy and paste it so you don't have to retype sometimes that is the only way we can gets answers.

Sorry.
rays i am a football nut. i love the skins loli know we struggling but joe is back
to Saint

no, all storms from a depression to a hurrican form an eye wall. the stringer the storm the more verticle it will be hence the evolution of an eye. when looking at a forming storm you look for the formation of an eye wall while in most weak storms like a depression it may not be closed you will finally get one when it reaches ts strength. easiest way to look at is all cyclones have the same mechanics. just the stronger and more concentrated it is u change the name from a depression to a ts to a hurricane. now the evolution of an eye wall feture as i see in the link shows that the storm has good outflow and is organising.
Wish we could have Gruden and Dungy in one package here they would make us a Great team again. Dungy Defense and Gruden Offense that is what won us the Superbowl. FINALLY.
my comment was not about rain or a sattelite i was asking you to comment on 1995 season where the pattern is much the same .
if this does like camille freddy elena and develops in west/central carrib lookout. if not it must be boring in tropics to focus so much attention on a storm still near lions and tigers lol. raysfan what about the bucs are they better?
1199. towlady
Lefty, do you get SNOW STORMS where you live??
Please send one our way! The heat index for this
afternoon is 107!! lol!
u know i feel that was dungy;s team still sorry but he brought the bucs from a laughing stock to a force to be recon with.don't get me wrong i think gruden is a good coach but that bucs team was not him and u see the results since. now he is rebuilding a team to be his team and they will be good cause gruden is a winner
lol saints theres one thing you can't forget is that this is not 1995 and no 2 storms willa ct the same. i think it has as good a chance at a landfall now as anyother storm, who knows and i appologise for not answering that question and i will do better
Yes they will. Love Jon but he needs more dicipline with his team he seems like such a hard guy, but really is not.

Been to the training camps there is none there. Says he is going ot get alot harder.
Are there any 5 day models for this new blob off Africa? Do models begin before a strom is classified as a TD?
towlady yes we do. i live in va and we get the full spectrum of weather, we get thunderstorms, heatwaves, hurricanes and nor'easters. i love living here cause every season brings new things for me to track and watch. i love an inch of snow as much as a hurricane. i love weather all of it and its my life. just so you know its hot as hell where i am at today with heat indexes in the 100's so as soon as my 1 yrold son gets up from his napp the fam and i will go to the pool for an hour lol
anyone can send me some rain here. I ahve been without rain at my house for a week with heat index from 104-109. Just wish the old td 10 would just bring us some rain across the state. Some cloudness here today maybe will help keep the heat down and the storms coming.
southbeache, there are tons of models the problem is they are not usefull right now for a storm as not formed and intialising the storm is the biggest factor in model runs. once we have a depression we need to wait 24 hrs to get 4-6 diff model runs to compare and take a concnesus so most first models for formed storms are way off. here is a link to some models and the gfdl is storm specific so we will have models for that one when a storm forms

Link
1207. towlady
Enjoy the pool. My crazy family has decided that 107 heat index is the perfect time to fire up the grill and roast along with the hamburgers and hotdogs. We in Brandon, FL just out side Tampa. Send that Snow!!!
yeah me to ray hope to get a afternoon downpour to cut the heat and let me cool my house down lol i like it about 65 but with this humidity i can only get her to 75 and in my room/office my computers generate so much heat it gets hot in here quick
i agree on gruden think atlanta and vick are overated carolina
we will see rays can we trade you tom benson haslett and venturi a week at busch gardens. lefty did not mean to tee you off but do ingest history as part of thier forecast and what alot of people dont realize is they combine all model input and
split down the middle to acone and center now dont think we still have a long way to go. also the point i am trying to make
is that history tells if they stay weak then they are a bigger threat down the road.
yeah towlady live right near the fairground.
gosh lefty id hate to see your electric bill
yeah saint i know about the usage in models, and do feel that for a storm to reach the carribean and the gulf the weaker the betetr but my point was its not always the case and it probly will stay wea cause its a long way from a depression to hurricane and we still don't have a depression classified yet and she is still moving west. i think the low lat of the center of only 11n will help to keep her well south of anyt weakness in the ridge but i really do not ever feelcomfortable talking bout track till we have a stormed formed as i do use the models to form my concensus and right now they are not very track reliable due to the storm not forming yet
You can keep your but can I send you Simms? PLEASE? Think that they over rate him because of his dad. We should have kept Johnson and Shuan King.

I understand that they use history to forecast these storms, but history was broken last year.
1214. towlady
Rain will be acceptable as a substitute. I agree with you, Raysfan, a bedraggled TD10 would be real nice about now.
towlady i will do my best. few yesr ago i know it snowed in oarts of florida like a couple inches so u never know.

yeah my bill is high lol but i be trying to cut down like i have my comps go into standby and shutdown the hard drive after 10 mins of non-usage, i try to turn lights off but you can never do enough. my saving grace is that most things in my house run on gas, like the hot water heater and what not so that saves alot and my gas bill is only like 50 bucks way cheaper than my eletric
they are saying that what is left of it is suppose to come across here Thursday but that is still to long away.
lefty do you think td 10 will do anything?
Look

Link

Link

There are some oranges.

How accurate are these and what do they mean?
weatherwatcher thats wind speed. starting to show wind speed around 40-45 kts in places but rain flagged and most likeley not at the surface. if you click this link guys set the speed to fast. this is a ir loop and shows the 2 areas of circulation, the disipating low to the north and the circulation under the convection south of that. as the low to the north dissipates the second will be able to take off

Link
i agree lefty if it stays south george and ivan are to good examples. of course subtopical ridge was strong. ray i agree
about history. also i understand andrew was bad and charley
but weather channel history dwells on these i guess no offense ray if they dont hit florida or east coast camille the worst ever fredrick cat4 made frances look like a weak step sister
and charlie was bad but are they really that worse than these gulf storms i guess cantore awc thinks so. also elena a cat 3
was one of the most unusal cat3 125 stronger than jeanne but
never get the same plub. ray keep simms and ride the cadillac warrrrrrrrrr eagle.
td 10 is dead but should bring rain to atleast south florida in a few days
Lefty let me give you a lesson(and yes I am very qualified to do this). An eyewall is a feature of a very mature tropical system. Not always a hurricane, but at least a very strong storm.

The eyewall is possibly the key element in the intensification of hurricanes and its development often signals that we have gone or are going from tropical storm to a hurricane.

What you are refering to is banding around the center, a very important event, but by no means an eye. Often as storm devlop you will get a banding eye where the different bands wrapping around the center have encircled the center and give the illusion of a true eye. Usually this is the first sign that a system is moving on up.

Now about this system, still a wave, no more. If you want it to make landfall(I hope you don't), it better stay a wave for a long time before developing. Because if it develops out there its odds of coming west are approaching zero real quick.
i amsorry tx but all tropical cyclone have eye walls vivibleim mircowave data. thats one of the first thing i learned when learning about micorwave dat while most storms under tropical strom strength do not have closed eyewalls.
SaintHurrifan I agree with you. Yes andrew was bad but, it wasn't the end all worse storm. I bet if given choice anybody would take Andrew over Camille. Andrew in my informed opinion wasn't even a 5, but thats already been argued on the blog and I'm not goin there. For the record the debate is only between 155 and 165. We all agree it was a bad bad storm.
Eleana was bad here but no more than a tropical storm. First one I ever experienced moved from Chicago was ready to go back
amen tx its got to stay weak or its going after sword fish
links i can find to explain this tx

Link

Link

now you will have to read some but thats on you
Hello people.....
No lefty you are wrong there, but I'm not going to argue. Just ask Dr. Masters.
lol did u click the links and read one is and interview with a top cyclone reasercher. all tropical cyclones form eye walls as part of their development. if u don;t want to read them then don't but i will find tons more for you
hey fsu
I think we ought to call this the "THE VINDICATION BLOG"....LOL
once again, i do not argue a point i give u info tx. provide me with info to the contary and i will gladly check it out and tell you waht i see. once again thats how i work
but they were telling everyone here to watch it, that some of the VIPIR models where showing it turning right that is why the hurricane center wants to do away with the line.
Hello Raysfan......I guess the Shear is forecasted to let down...maybe we will see some interesting action soon.....
storm please don't start again everything was calmed down. And we were having a good conversation..
When do ya'll see the wave turning in to a depression?

And why would it not make it west if it developed now?
Yes, and the sand is gone. Watch out is all I can say now.
tx fredrick much underated winds in pascagoula 7 miles from where i live sustained winds 135 gusting to 170 when wind gage broke at chevron also was a very large storm. tore daupin isl. into 3 pieces took out entire causeway bridge worse than ivan who was weaking at landfall. in 1979 was costliest natural
disaster at time. i guess it just didnt east coast kind of
like some of texas bad storms dont get as much ink 47 hurricane and betsy also rank above some of these recent storms sorry just a pet peeve of mine.
anytime in the next 24-36 hours and i am not sure it will or won't at this time. not enough is known and models are no help
So what dou you think will happen lefty? When will it become a depression? I still think it is too early to talk about track though. Once it develops, the models can do what they do, I think they are unreliable in forcasting a track for a storm that has not developed yet.

Oh yeah,

I do see a wsw motion. I don't think it will be recurving if it continues on this motion. Just my opinion.
I remember frederick, it came along just after david....i remember the satellite images...it was a good size storm.....1979
1243. 147257
we do that all the time talking about which path it going to follow when it isnt developed :P
well it is starting to develop an eye wall in the satest ssmi 85ghs data and the center which was exposed last night is now covered by deepconvection and has for some time. the pressure as also droped 2 mbs in 12 hrs showing its getting organised. there is a cdo feature devloping and will take off once the last bit of spin from the dissipating low to its north winds down. in about 24-36 hours. it will be a depression soon all data is supporting that. now i am with you on track. every one has an opinion and educated guess but i want to wait till it forms and than i have 4-6 models runs to compare, thats 24 hours of diff model runs than i will give a decision on hwere it will go in the short term. movement is about due west. you are seeing the convection from the banding slide wsw as it starts to move around the circulation i will provide some links to support this in my next post
yes david caused it to weaken to nothing then in 48 hrs went from 30mph to cat 4. so while blob n of hisp. doesnt look like much its headed to area where it could develop.i will agree though not likely.
here is the 85ghz ssmi microwave. cenetr is about 11n and 23or24w

Link

this is a ir loop of the system. you can see the 2 circulations the exposed one to the north which is the remanats of the other low and the other circulatin under the convection the the sw of the islands. just look at the low clouds to see the cir and be patient this is a large loop so will take lil time to load. set speed to fast for best veiwing


Link
1247. rick1
what storm or wave are ya'll talking about
wave off of africa with center at 11n and 23.5 w
Lefty I'll read the links but with my degrees I've read about all that is relevant to this already.I've studied tropical cyclone development and spent several years just looking at systems as they were developing to try to see most relevant factors.

link 1
Big error. It states the eye is the coolest part. WRONG. Sinking air in the eye makes it a warm warm and oppressive place, not the coolest. Remember sinking air is warming due to compression. This is a good site but does have errors occasionally.

The second link he just says that you can see the eyewall with the TRMM. Thats true, but weak systems don't have one. Actually TS sometimes don't have much organized convection and at best have a broad area of light winds. This isn't an eye yet.

Be careful about taking these links to heart. You seem pretty smart so look at more scientific ones and learn about the storm.
Lefty, What is the difference between a LLC and an eye? And could this lead to any of the confusion between you and TX?
cant believe you all ran hawkeyewx off..he was one of the best minds on forcasting left in this blog, Many have left this blog because of the fighting here and bickering over EGO's..well the learning curve on this blog is sure in decline,keep fighting and you will run the few good ones left off too...then this learning curve totally crashes and the guest to this blog will no longer get facts just someones speculation based on thin air...
Tx- would the eyewall not be the coolest part of the storm and inside the eye the warmest?
ok tx i didn;t use those links to dtermine my decision just couple links i picked up real quick to give you. now the best thing to do is watch the microwave dat tutorial on the navy site i will give u . its long so if you want to watch it later its on you. it describes the formation of a eye wall in a forming tropicl system very clearly

storm a llc i the circulation and center of the low pressure of the storm the eye wall is a colection of intesned cludiness and storms that are nessacary to keep the engine going, like a piston in a car engine.

here is the link to the navy site, click on the green button next to tutorial called comet

Link
dr masters has a new thread up
we shoud all take this to the new thread see you there
to Saint WRITTEN BY Lenny(lefty)

no, all storms from a depression to a hurrican form an eye wall. the stringer the storm the more verticle it will be hence the evolution of an eye. when looking at a forming storm you look for the formation of an eye wall while in most weak storms like a depression it may not be closed you will finally get one when it reaches ts strength. easiest way to look at is all cyclones have the same mechanics. just the stronger and more concentrated it is u change the name from a depression to a ts to a hurricane. now the evolution of an eye wall feture as i see in the link shows that the storm has good outflow and is organising.

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.Lefty.....with this statement you lose any credibility that you have as a forecaster. I think even the bimbos on the weather channel know that an eye is a feature of a strong tropical cyclone only, namely a hurricane. I think that you and stormtop are actually the same person. Please leave the next blog alone and let us discuss the tropics. We'll muddle through without your insight.
Lefty, I am in Charleston and if one should come this way I may be able to work with you on a place to stay. Good secure brick home off the ground and not too many trees. Keep it in mind if nature warrents.
lefty you seem very knowledgable i enjoy your comment but dont get so wrapped up in models and satellite pictures. by the way
you seem to be obsessed like me with these things you really need to try joe bastardi i think you would find him very interesting he is eeeerily accurate no offense he puts alot of these other so called experts to shame who only know gfs and trust it like it is jesus. keep up good work.
sounds nice storm jumkie
to every one, all tropical cyclones from depression to hurricane have a eye or center
i ammoving to the new thread started by dr masters. all pleasecome as i want to talk more with all fo you