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The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting wxchaser97:

We both said it near the same time.


no..he said it first... don't try to steal his credit
Quoting Civicane49:


One of the reasons is cool sea surface temperatures in South China Sea.



Disregard what I said. Water temperatures are warmer than 26C. My bad.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I said 120 MILES PER HOUR...where did you get that 120kt from?


The Dvorak technique numbers someone posted a few posts above.
off topic again...

Although I have a mac 21.5" 2011 and I have no need of going to windows live to check for my e-mails because I have the mail-app install (some of you who has a mac would understand)
so I went to see my hotmail account and to my surprise I have 21,933 new e-mails!!!!
Bopha won't be at 105 knots long. It is becoming much better defined.



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no..he said it first... don't try to steal his credit

I wasn't... nor did I copy what he said. Yes, he did say it first, but we had a similar idea within the same minute.
I doubt CSU considers short-lived storms like Oscar in their seasonal forecasts, which could help explain why their 2012 forecast was so off.
Land interaction would cause Bopha to weaken to a tropical storm. There is dry air over South China Sea, which would inhibit significant re-strengthening of Bopha after hitting the Philippines.

Is early like TA Says,we need to wait until may and see the pattern, and even with that, is unsure the predicction,the best example happend this year, the majority of the dynamical model developing el Nino and this dosen´t happened.....But based in the good agreement of the dinamycals and statical models for the 2013, the season will be active again with the models saying a Neutral to la Nina status....So maybe a similar numbers of the 2012 season in TS and Hurricanes is posible with the majors Hurricane exist a big query, specialy with the the trend of the Vertical instability this recents years
Quoting wxchaser97:

I wasn't... nor did I copy what he said. Yes, he did say it first, but we had a similar idea within the same minute.


still...he said what you said afterwards..I love arguing, go on
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 3 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now heading towards Surigao Provinces

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 6.9°N 131.4°E or 550 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

State of the sea is rough to phenomenal

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Siargao
4. Dinagat
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Davao Oriental

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Misamis Oriental
3. Bukidnon
4. Davao del Norte
5. Compostela Valley

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Cuyo Island

Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Biliran
5. Aklan
6. Capiz
7. Antique
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras
10. Negros Occidental
11. Negros Oriental
12. Cebu
13. Siquijor

Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga Provinces
2. Lanao Provinces
3. Davao del Sur
4. North Cotabato
5. Maguindanao

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


still...he said what you said afterwards..I love arguing, go on

But it is too pointless to go on with arguing, literally too pointless.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt CSU considers short-lived storms like Oscar in their seasonal forecasts, which could help explain why their 2012 forecast was so off.


They should just throw in a few to compensate. We all know there will be a few TCs that will be named in our satellite era that otherwise wouldn't have.

They need to catch on, lol.
Quoting wxchaser97:

But it is too pointless to go on with arguing, literally too pointless.


well then...cut it right here
Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt CSU considers short-lived storms like Oscar in their seasonal forecasts, which could help explain why their 2012 forecast was so off.

A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone, regardless of how long or short it lasts. If they did not take into account that the 2012 season would not see short-lived and/or frontal storms, then maybe they should start from here on out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone, regardless of how long or short it lasts. If they did not take into account that the 2012 season would not see short-lived and/or frontal storms, then maybe they should start from here on out.


As far as I know, considering such storms is not a part of their methodology, mainly because you really can't predict them.
Quoting bappit:

So much for the idea that we can't do anything about our CO2 emissions. We've decreased them without really trying. Problem is China.


The U.S. probably reduced our numbers by hypocritically outsourcing labor and other manufacturing processes to China.

China is actually outpacing the U.S. in alternative energy production as well. In fact, many of the wind turbines deployed in the U.S. are manufactured in China.

China's main problem is their population is so large. They are doubling their wind and solar deployments every year or so, and their CO2 emissions are still rising because their rate of modernization is higher than the rate of growth of alternative energies deployment. So it will take several decades before they can come into balance from the top to bottom of their civilization.

Seeing how world population increases by more than 1% per year, and other people are modernizing, and they have just as much right to burn dead plants as the west does, this is unlikely to change in the short term.


If the U.S. cut our pollution in half, and all the rest of Africa and Middle East and Far East increased their living standards to match the average of the U.S., Europe, and Japan, the word would actually be far worse off. Yet those people in "developing" and "undeveloped" nations have just as much right to high technology as we do.

Just wait till the people in central Africa get out of the stone age, and a larger chunk of people in China and Pakistan and other backwards civilizations get electricity and automobiles! Global production rates for CO2 and other pollution will probably double!
James Reynolds @typhoonfury 9m
Heavy squall lashing Koror right now, back end feeder back from #typhoon #bopha


James Reynolds @typhoonfury 10m
Hearing reports of heavy storm surge damage in Melekeok village in NE of largest island in Palau, try head there this pm #typhoon #bopha

Quoting bappit:
All the deniers on the blog must be in the pocket of the Chinese government. LOL


哦,天哪,你抓到我了。
Quoting KoritheMan:


As far as I know, considering such storms is not a part of their methodology, mainly because you really can't predict them.


I could tell you right now there will be at least one short-lived TC in 2013, and I would most likely end up right. Is that too complex for CSU?
As some here may remember, this year I oddly incorporated butterflies into my hurricane forecast.

Unlike all the experts we heard from, on April 5, 2012 I pointed to an unusual number of storms this year, which turned out to be "bizarrely" correct.

However, if you had been paying careful attention, my forecast was atypical in other respects, as well.



As the Atlantic season progresses, the experts like to issue updates. Likewise, I issued an update, immediately after hurricane Isaac made landfall.

It curiously reads as follows:
Post 1140 OracleDeAtlantis August 30, 2012

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
You have to first ask the question, what do butterflies have to do with hurricane forcasting? It is a strange thing to say, after all.


"What you should be asking now, is what comes, when the butterflies leave."



Typically in North America the butterflies "leave" when the first frost appears. Note that I didn't say "die," so there's only one species I could have been referring to.

Because of the prolonged record drought in the Midwest, this years Monarch butterfly fall migration was unusually small, and heavily concentrated in a certain part of North America. It was so small that you would probably have to go back to the Dust Bowl to find another year like it. There were just a fraction this year when compared to last. The drought had decimated their numbers.

As you see from studying previous published years, 2012 was a very unusual year for the fall migration of the Monarch. The relatively few roosts were most heavily concentrated, precisely where hurricane Sandy would make landfall.






So the next time you wonder why I use the migration of hummingbirds and butterflies in my hurricane forecasts, perhaps you'll look a little closer, because if you had been paying careful attention to my update here, not only would you have had a clue of when, but where the next U.S. landfall would take place.

Long before we became industrialized, Native Americans paid careful attention to animal signs, using them to navigate a difficult environment.

Now, as we find ourselves in ever increasing peril, let U.S. listen again to those we share our environment with; for their voices can shatter mountains.
1023. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:


%u54E6%uFF0C%u5929%u54EA%uFF0C%u4F60%u6293%u5230%u 6211%u4E86%u3002

I don't think of you as being in anyone's pocket.
Yup.

A 3% annual growth rate in annual CO2 production would result in a doubling of annual CO2 production in 24 years if it is exponential (possibly, since population growth is exponential,) or 34 years, obviously, if it is linear, which is unlikely.


I think the slope of the Keeling Curve will be plus 8PPM/year if our CO2 production was to double, seeing as how the environment only absorbs about 4 PPM/year out of the 6 or so humans currently produce, giving a current net slope of about plus 2PPM/year.

So doubling CO2 production will quadruple the net slope of the Keeling Curve...which could apparently happen in as little as 24 to 34 years...
Quoting Slamguitar:


I could tell you right now there will be at least one short-lived TC in 2013, and I would most likely end up right. Is that too complex for CSU?


It's not a matter of if we'll have any, it's a question of how well we are able to predict them en masse. No need for them to pointlessly inflate their numbers when these storms spin up at a moment's notice.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not a matter of if we'll have any, it's a question of how well we are able to predict them en masse. No need for them to pointlessly inflate their numbers when these storms spin up at a moment's notice.


Um, so they are completely sure of when each specific long-lived tropical storm and hurricane is going to spin-up in their preseason forecast??

You could say they're pointlessly inflating all their numbers because we don't know specifically when each TC will form.

I wouldn't regard it as pointlessly inflating numbers. If they've been consistently short on their numbers, they need to adapt. After all, it's a numerical forecast that doesn't tell anything about the personality/character of the storms.

Tropical cyclone = tropical cyclone. All are equal in these forecasts.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Um, so they are completely sure of when each specific long-lived tropical storm and hurricane is going to spin-up in their preseason forecast??

You could say they're pointlessly inflating all their numbers because we don't know specifically when each TC will form.

I wouldn't regard it as pointlessly inflating numbers. If they've been consistently short on their numbers, they need to adapt. After all, it's a numerical forecast that doesn't tell anything about the personality/character of the storms.

Tropical cyclone = tropical cyclone. All are equal in these forecasts.


Fine, your point is better than mine. Now get off my back, lol (kidding).

Also, "personality"? Come on, that almost makes them sound... human.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Fine, your point is better than mine. Now get off my back, lol (kidding).

Also, "personality"? Come on, that almost makes them sound... human.


Well, we do give them names and all. That really makes it easy to personify these storms.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Well, we do give them names and all. That really makes it easy to personify these storms.


what would people say before 1953...?
Quoting bappit:

I don't think of you as being in anyone's pocket.

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"


na you're good...it's Sunday here
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what would people say in the before 1953...?


Well, the only logical choice in that era would be to call it a godless heathen commie storm from Cuba and not give it a name because it has no soul.

:D
Bopha is likely nearing Category 4 intensity already, if it has not already attained that strength again.

Quoting AussieStorm:

New Bryan Norcross' Official Blog


darn, for a moment i forgot we are under TWC
Quoting Slamguitar:


Well, the only logical choice in that era would be to call it a godless heathen commie storm from Cuba and not give it a name because it has no soul.

:D



.....someone sounds too young to remember that the revolution took place in 1959....

"god-supporting capitalists" were very much the norm in Cuba in 1953 : )
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



.....someone sounds too young to remember that the revolution took place in 1959....

"god-supporting capitalists" were very much the norm in Cuba in 1953 : )


No, not historical facts!! Just kidding, I wanted to throw in Cuba even though I'm well versed in the history. Made more sense than saying the commie storm formed near the USSR. Props for noticing. You get a red star!!
video from TyphoonFury

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwcLbr5w&featur e=youtube_gdata_player





James Reynolds @typhoonfury 22m
My "office" for the last 3hrs, damp muggy corridor of the motel editing & uploading footage! It ain't glamourous! pic.twitter.com/6riHiAAw
View photo %uFFFD

James Reynolds @typhoonfury 33m
Seems mobile phone service is down still in Koror right now?
View details %uFFFD

James Reynolds @typhoonfury 46m
Footage now online I shot over last 24hrs of #typhoon #bopha / #Pablo impacting Koror, #Palau - youtube.com/watch?v=V4AGwc%u2026
View summary %uFFFD
Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt CSU considers short-lived storms like Oscar in their seasonal forecasts, which could help explain why their 2012 forecast was so off.

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)


Beryl would have been detected pre-satellite anyway, since it hit a populated area.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm in my own pocket, but I do piss in some ones pocket when credit is needed to be given.

Before people get upset and/or I get banned, here is what piss in ya pocket means here in Australia.

1. Aussie expression for giving someone a compliment but at the same time telling them that you are not doing it for an ulterior motive.
Look mate, I'm not trying to piss in your pocket, but you have an awesome car!!

2. Australian expression used when asking a friend or associate for help when they are finding life easy but you your struggling to even get started.
"don't mind if I piss in your pocket do you"
Here in the USA we butter somebody up before we piss in their pocket.
The eye continues to clear out on Bopha. It should be re-strengthening.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Beryl would have been detected pre-satellite anyway, since it hit a populated area.


There were ships around Alberto that could've detected a tropical storm since it was pretty close to land.
Round two.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 7.0 7.0
Quoting wxchaser97:


There were ships around Alberto that could've detected a tropical storm since it was pretty close to land.


That too.
BOPHA completing another eye wall replacement, strengthening again..Raw T 7.
1048. hydrus
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Careful, Hydrus. Grothar wore that as his wrist watch.
He can with ease, He,s been working out for eons.
1049. hydrus
This looks interesting...A ways out tho.
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (Philippines)
Severe Weather Bulletin No. 04 for Typhoon "Pablo" (BOPHA)
Issued on 03 December 2012, 11:00AM Link(pdf)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2 preseason (Alberto and Beryl) plus 3 short lived (Chris, Oscar, and Patty). Puts it at 14 named storms. Ill let them off the hook ;)
Probably Joyce and Maybe Florence and Tony would have gone undetected too.
Aussie, such an awkward PAGASA scan that they made. LOL
All systems are go.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, such an awkward PAGASA scan that they made. LOL

Yeah. I was like, what the ....

btw I am watching American Chopper the 9/11 bike got trashed by Hurricane Sandy. Maybe the next episode will be up tomorrow.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I finished my local forecast blog.

Good night everyone.


yep..good nite. Am out as well
Guess I'll join the party. The blog needs shuteye and I do too. 'Nite everyone!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 3 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (935 hPa) located at 7.0N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.6N 125.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Mindanao (Philippines)
48 HRS: 11.0N 121.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sulu Sea
72 HRS: 12.7N 119.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
That should make JTWC raise the intensity back up to 130 knots with that 6.5 Dvorak.
I'm very worried about the impact that Typhoon Bopha (PABLO) will have on the southern Philippines. In December of last year, Tropical Storm Washi made landfall on very much the same area that is likely to be hit, again, by this storm. Washi triggered multiple landslides and killed at least 1,268 people. Remember that Bopha is a much larger and much stronger storm, so wind damage will be another threat. This is a very non-typhoon-prone region of the Philippines--the last time that a "major" typhoon struck Mindanao was Typhoon Kate of 1970:

In southern Mindanao, over 5,000 houses and other such structures were damaged or destroyed by storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds produced by Typhoon Kate. Damage from the storm was estimated at $50 million, making it one of the costliest typhoons on record at the time. A total of 631 people were confirmed to have been killed by the storm and 284 others were listed as missing. This ranked Kate as the deadliest typhoon to strike the Philippines at the time; however, it has since been surpassed by eighteen other storms.[2] The previous deadliest typhoon was a storm in the 1960s which killed 200 people in Manila.[8] The large loss of life from the typhoon is believed to be related to the lack of tropical cyclone experience for residents in southern Mindanao.[2]

From Wikipedia

Only about two storms have previously made landfall as a significant typhoon on northern Mindanao since 1970 (less than half a dozen in total have skirted the northeast as a category 1), and both caused dozens of casualties. The Philippine government has already started evacuating thousands of people and preparations have begun on the northern coast of the island, in an effort to avoid a repeat of the tragic situation last year, in which the tropical storm struck at night, catching residents off guard. Unfortunately, Bopha may well make landfall in the early morning hours, making it more difficult to stay safe in the midst of the storm.

While Luzon is much more prepared for typhoons, such storms in Mindanao are so infrequent that most of them lead to widescale disaster even for small cyclones.

Link

I have exams coming up but may choose to write a blog entry.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 3 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 7.1°N 129.9°E or 390 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

State of the sea is rough to phenomenal

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Misamis Oriental
8. Bukidnon
9. Davao Oriental
10. Compostela Valley
11. Davao del Norte
12. Samal Island

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol
3. Southern Cebu
4. Negros Oriental
5. Siquijor

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Misamis Occidental
2. Lanao del Norte
3. Lanao del Sur
4. North Cotabato
5. Zamboanga del Norte

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. Of Islands
3. Cuyo Island

Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Biliran
5. Aklan
6. Capiz
7. Antique
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras
10. Negros Occidental
11. Rest of Cebu
12. Camotes Island

Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga del Sur
2. Maguindanao
3. Sultan Kudarat
4. Sarangani
5. South Cotabato

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Good mornin' everyone!

Good evening Mr. Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good mornin' everyone!

Good evening Mr. Aussie!

Morning Mate!

Deep divide at UN climate talks

Countries entered a second week of UN climate talks in Doha deeply divided on key issues even as fresh warnings were issued that rising greenhouse gas levels are putting our planet in peril.

After six days of intense negotiations, observers on Monday said nations were far from agreement on extending the Kyoto Protocol on curbing emissions of Earth-warming gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2) produced from burning fossil fuels.

With evidence mounting that man-made climate change is melting polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise more quickly than feared, poor countries insist the West makes deeper, more urgent emissions cuts under Kyoto and gives more cash to help the third world adapt and cope.

The mechanisms for both remain in dispute.

'The science is clear: further delay would mean the opportunity to avert a global calamity would be irrevocably lost,' the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a grouping of 43 countries at risk from warming-induced sea level rise, said on Monday.

'We begin the final week of negotiations in Doha with the sober recognition that time is running out to prevent the loss of entire nations and other calamities in our membership and around the world.'

A new study warned Sunday that Earth could be on track for warming above five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 - at least double the two degree Celsius limit being targeted for what scientists hope will be manageable climate change.

Other studies in the past week showed that polar ice cap melt had raised sea levels by nearly half an inch (11 millimetres) over the last two decades, and that Arctic ice had diminished at an unprecedented rate in 2012.

Yet observers say the Doha talks have become stuck, partly over a disagreement within the European Union on whether individual nations should be allowed to hold on to unused emissions quotas - so-called 'hot air' - rather than scrapping them.

These left-over unused emission allowances, estimated to amount to some 13 billion tonnes for all countries put together, were allotted under the first leg of the Kyoto Protocol that runs out on December 31.

EU member Poland and some other countries now insist on carrying the 'hot air' over into a follow up period - a move vehemently opposed by the developing world and countries most at risk of climate change-induced warming.

The surplus allowances can be sold on the carbon market.

'What were billed as mainly procedural talks are showing more controversy than expected,' Greenpeace said of the talks.
Good morning/evening all! A balmy 63 degrees here this morning.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I'm very worried about the impact that Typhoon Bopha (PABLO) will have on the southern Philippines. In December of last year, Tropical Storm Washi made landfall on very much the same area that is likely to be hit, again, by this storm. Washi triggered multiple landslides and killed at least 1,268 people. Remember that Bopha is a much larger and much stronger storm, so wind damage will be another threat. This is a very non-typhoon-prone region of the Philippines--the last time that a "major" typhoon struck Mindanao was Typhoon Kate of 1970:

In southern Mindanao, over 5,000 houses and other such structures were damaged or destroyed by storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds produced by Typhoon Kate. Damage from the storm was estimated at $50 million, making it one of the costliest typhoons on record at the time. A total of 631 people were confirmed to have been killed by the storm and 284 others were listed as missing. This ranked Kate as the deadliest typhoon to strike the Philippines at the time; however, it has since been surpassed by eighteen other storms.[2] The previous deadliest typhoon was a storm in the 1960s which killed 200 people in Manila.[8] The large loss of life from the typhoon is believed to be related to the lack of tropical cyclone experience for residents in southern Mindanao.[2]

From Wikipedia

Only about two storms have previously made landfall as a significant typhoon on northern Mindanao since 1970 (less than half a dozen in total have skirted the northeast as a category 1), and both caused dozens of casualties. The Philippine government has already started evacuating thousands of people and preparations have begun on the northern coast of the island, in an effort to avoid a repeat of the tragic situation last year, in which the tropical storm struck at night, catching residents off guard. Unfortunately, Bopha may well make landfall in the early morning hours, making it more difficult to stay safe in the midst of the storm.

While Luzon is much more prepared for typhoons, such storms in Mindanao are so infrequent that most of them lead to widescale disaster even for small cyclones.

Link

I have exams coming up but may choose to write a blog entry.


You need to check your research, The last typhoon of Bopha/Pablo strength was Typhoon Mike of 1990. Mike was a Cat 4 Typhoon when it hit the same area as Bopha is forecast to hit.

Also, TS Washi was not moving very quickly. in fact the flash flooding was caused by 10hrs of heavy rain.

How similar is the track of TY Mike.


and forecast track of TY Bopha.
Who is going to be right. PAGASA or JTWC??

PAGASA forecast track....


JTWC forecast track...


I hope the JTWC track is correct. less people will be effected by Pablo.
Well this has disaster written all over it...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 7:18:55 N Lon : 129:05:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 920.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.4 degrees


03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific

Click image for loop.
Quoting AussieStorm:


You need to check your research, The last typhoon of Bopha/Pablo strength was Typhoon Mike of 1990. Mike was a Cat 4 Typhoon when it hit the same area as Bopha is forecast to hit.

Also, TS Washi was not moving very quickly. in fact the flash flooding was caused by 10hrs of heavy rain.

How similar is the track of TY Mike.


and forecast track of TY Bopha.


You need to check your maps again. That map shows Mike nicking the NE tip of Mindanao and then heading into the Leyte Gulf and through the Visayas. The forecast map of Bopha you posted is more than a day old, and the current forecast (and it's only 12 hours from landfall now, so that's pretty definite), has it ploughing into central Mindanao.

Thankfully, the coastline there is relatively sparsely populated, but a little ways inland that's not the case.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


You need to check your maps again. That map shows Mike nicking the NE tip of Mindanao and then heading into the Leyte Gulf and through the Visayas. The forecast map of Bopha you posted is more than a day old, and the current forecast (and it's only 12 hours from landfall now, so that's pretty definite), has it ploughing into central Mindanao.

Thankfully, the coastline there is relatively sparsely populated, but a little ways inland that's not the case.

Thanks, and I did say similar, not exact.
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.
1073. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!!..warm and no rain this week again
Quoting yonzabam:
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.



Haven't we all?
Everyone have a great Monday, and Aussie have a great Tuesday!
1076. barbamz
Good morning from snowy Germany and, well, all the best to the poor Philippines with "Pablo". When I was a child, I once had a penfriend in Mindanao/Davao City (cough, about 40 years ago) ...

Evacuations start as 'Pablo' moves closer to Mindanao
(philstar.com) | Updated December 3, 2012 - 11:13am

MANILA, Philippines - Preemptive evacuations have been ordered in areas in Mindanao that are expected to be hit by typhoon "Pablo" (international name Bopha), which was forecast to make landfall on Tuesday morning over Surigao del Sur.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) placed all its units in Mindanao and other parts of the country, particularly in Palawan and Visayas provinces, on red alert to prepare for the typhoon, which had been categorized by US meteorologists as a super typhoon.

Reports said that additional policemen have been dispatched to Surigao provinces to convince residents in high-risk areas to evacuate. Reports said that several residents continue to refuse to leave their homes despite the anticipated devastation that may be brought by the typhoon.

Preparations for the typhoon was heavier in Caraga, where several provinces are included in the path of the typhoon when it starts crossing land.

Director Blanchie Gobenciong, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) director in Caraga, said that alongside the preemptive evacuation are the pre-positioning of rescue teams and equipment in critical areas in the region.

“Aside from Hinatuan town, residents along coastal municipalities in the provinces of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargo in Dinagat, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Davao Oriental, have already evacuated,” Gobenciong said.

Preemptive evacuations were also conducted along coastal municipalities of Samar and Leyte, which are also included in the list of provinces that are in Pablo’s path.

“All these areas where preemptive evacuations were conducted are all facing the Pacific Ocean,” Gobenciong said.

Gobenciong said that as part of their ongoing preparation is the assumption that wide areas in Caraga would be without electricity as the typhoon is expected to topple electricity posts and cut off power lines during its onslaught.

Source and more
Quoting yonzabam:
So, is Bopha/Pablo a large system,or not? I read a few days ago that it was small, but it doesn't look so small to me. Maybe it's put on some weight.

Pablo is classified as a large system. 775km in diameter.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Pablo is classified as a large system. 775km in diameter.



While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small

278
wtpn31 pgtw 030900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 26w (Bopha) warning nr 031
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
030600z --- near 6.9n 130.4e
movement past six hours - 280 degrees at 12 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant


radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant
095 nm southeast quadrant
095 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 6.9n 130.4e

This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am not a fan of the carbon tax. I am much less of a fan of inaction when it comes to mitigation of the CO2 that OUR activities contribute to the warming trend of our climate. I am VERY open to hearing alternatives.


How about a carbon tax (or fee if you want to use Hansen's word) combined with a carbon dividend?

The tax/fee is collected from the fossil fuel company when it comes out of the ground. The tax/fee is based on the amount of fossilized CO2 that is produced by burning the carbon produced. About $.20/pound of CO2 is a good level after a 3 year phase-in. That would add about $4.00 to the price of a gallon of most liquid fossil fuels in addition to the amount of carbon used in refining and transportation. There would be a 6 month preparation period from the date the law was signed into law and the first collections were made and the rate would be gradually increased for the next 3 years.

The dividend would take all (less 5% for admin costs) of this tax/fee money and distribute it equally in a monthly or quarterly payment to registered participants who must be citizens of the US. Registrants must have a social security card, be permanent residents of the US, and be 18 or over. The Alaskan oil dividend does approximately this every year in that state.

What would be the result of this? People would immediately use less fossil fuels in every way possible to avoid paying the tax/fee. Those that managed to do a good job in reducing their use would actually make money from the combination. Big spenders that jet all over the planet would end up paying those that stayed at home and used less. Fossil fuels would be replaced by renewable and other sources of energy much more rapidly. A house powered by solar panels or wind wouldn't pay the tax coal or gas generated power would require. A society organized along this line would see a massive drop in fossil fuel use in a controlled fashion.
1080. yqt1001
Both SAB and JTWC are at 7.0 so pending that there isn't another EWRC before the next update, it should be a category 5 system soon.



Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small

278
wtpn31 pgtw 030900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 26w (Bopha) warning nr 031
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
030600z --- near 6.9n 130.4e
movement past six hours - 280 degrees at 12 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant


radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 105 nm northeast quadrant
095 nm southeast quadrant
095 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 6.9n 130.4e

This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.


Bopha's eye has shrunk so much over the past few hours, that it seems like it must be about to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. That means top winds may come down (from 180 mph, according to recent ADT estimates!), but wind field will probably expand a good deal from those really small numbers just posted.
1082. nymore
Quoting percylives:


How about a carbon tax (or fee if you want to use Hansen's word) combined with a carbon dividend?

The tax/fee is collected from the fossil fuel company when it comes out of the ground. The tax/fee is based on the amount of fossilized CO2 that is produced by burning the carbon produced. About $.20/pound of CO2 is a good level after a 3 year phase-in. That would add about $4.00 to the price of a gallon of most liquid fossil fuels in addition to the amount of carbon used in refining and transportation. There would be a 6 month preparation period from the date the law was signed into law and the first collections were made and the rate would be gradually increased for the next 3 years.

The dividend would take all (less 5% for admin costs) of this tax/fee money and distribute it equally in a monthly or quarterly payment to registered participants who must be citizens of the US. Registrants must have a social security card, be permanent residents of the US, and be 18 or over. The Alaskan oil dividend does approximately this every year in that state.

What would be the result of this? People would immediately use less fossil fuels in every way possible to avoid paying the tax/fee. Those that managed to do a good job in reducing their use would actually make money from the combination. Big spenders that jet all over the planet would end up paying those that stayed at home and used less. Fossil fuels would be replaced by renewable and other sources of energy much more rapidly. A house powered by solar panels or wind wouldn't pay the tax coal or gas generated power would require. A society organized along this line would see a massive drop in fossil fuel use in a controlled fashion.
What will happen to agriculture, building and infrastructure construction, trucking firms.

Just to name a few
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


While the cloud shield is indeed large, the wind radii is small
This is very common with near equatorial system. To conserve momentum due to lack of coriolis force, the system must remain small and compact.

The good news is that wind damage will be very localized, the REALLY BAD news is precipitation. Flooding will be the main concern.


Flooding is always a concern.

Here is a conspiracy for everyone. The radar that was on Mindanao Island but it went down for maintenance a few days ago, came back online today but it's now no longer available. Pablo was expected to pass very close to this doppler radar station.
Aussie,do you know the population of Mindanao?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Well this has disaster written all over it...



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 7:18:55 N Lon : 129:05:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 920.9mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 98km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.4 degrees


03/0830 UTC 7.2N 129.6E T7.0/7.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific



Very impressive storm. Definitely cat 5.






Quoting FlyingScotsman:


Bopha's eye has shrunk so much over the past few hours, that it seems like it must be about to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. That means top winds may come down (from 180 mph, according to recent ADT estimates!), but wind field will probably expand a good deal from those really small numbers just posted.


It's a small system with a small eye. So what?

It's about the size of Andrew or Charlie. The eye being small is normal.

Just remember, Wilma had a 2 mile wide eye at peak wind intensity.

Maybe the eye falls apart, maybe it doesn't, either way the people there should treat it the same and take every step possible to save their own lives.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Aussie,do you know the population of Mindanao?


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.
So far it's done about what I said last night before I went to bed.

I said it would reach peak intensity in 12 to 18, based on the intuition that the eye would be rebuilt by now, and some other observations I've made over the years.

I'd say it holds about this intensity, give or take 5 or 10kts, for another 12 hours.


TCHP is useless for systems that are moving well, particularly when they are relatively small, like this one. This storm is actually smaller than Andrew, but currently about the same pressure as Andrew's Florida landfall, but 5 to 10mph stronger winds than Andrew's Florida landfall.

Only SST matters, because up-welling isn't an issue, so 29C and 30C can easily support cat 5, even though the TCHP is supposedly low. Actually, I doubt the accuracy of those maps anyway, but that's for another thread.
Quoting nymore:
What will happen to agriculture, building and infrastructure construction, trucking firms.

Just to name a few


These folks will be the leaders in the improvement of efficiency with fossil fuels as they will be greatly affected. They will have to raise prices for their products/services and those that become more efficient will have a competitive advantage. The increase in price will change the purchasing practices of the public and some products will suffer while others will benefit.

There will be a large shift in the behavior of the citizenry. Is this bad? Nope, when considering the alternative, it is very, very good.


Quoting AussieStorm:


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.


Oh boy. It was much better if it had tracked north from there but it seems late now to not turn away from that area.
1093. nymore
Large parts of Alaska getting crushed with very cold weather.

UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN... NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CHICKEN...BOUNDARY 358 AM AKST MON DEC 3 2012 .TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS 30 TO 40 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. LOWS 35 TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. HIGHS 25 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. LOWS 35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. HIGHS 25 TO 35 BELOW. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 35 BELOW. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. HIGHS AROUND 30 BELOW. .SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 35 BELOW. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 20 BELOW.
Bopha is apparently within about 3mph of it's theoretical maximum wind speed, and may actually be exceeding theory.

Good sticky warm morning everyone. Not much cool on the horizon for us.

WOULD HAVE TO SAY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES COMING IN AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORM. DID TIE A RECORD HIGH AT ARA SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORDS TODAY HOWEVER WITH THE RECORD AT ALL SITES IN THE MID
80S. NOT USED TO SWATTING MOSQUITOES IN DECEMBER. NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED
THURSDAY.

HAVE INCLUDED A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THANKS TO A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AGAIN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING.
ECMWF SUGGESTING A RATHER STRONG FROPA SUNDAY BUT THE GFS NOT
BITING. AT THIS TIME MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AWAITING SOME CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS.

Lol. They must be new. :)
Pilbra Thunderstorm Tonight.






1097. AztecCe
This thing looks horrible

Link
Good morning.I feel very bad for the people in the Phillipines.I have two friends that I work with who have family there and they have been checking in on them to see if their all right.

Before my last departure from the blog I saw people wishing for the Typhoon to intensify into the system that it is now saying "It has all the ingrediants?"."So why won't it intensify?"

Well I hope you all are happy..... be careful what you wish for..It may not be what you always wanted...
Quoting AztecCe:
This thing looks horrible

Link


I don't know why it hasn't been upgraded.

It looks like something out of 2005 or 2007 from the Atlantic.

See if I can find something zoomed in from another site.

50-minute super cell wreaks havoc on Tamworth

Residents are still mopping up after Monday's wild storm that ripped through Tamworth, bringing down power lines and cutting off electricity to thousands of homes.

The "super cell" dumped hailstones bigger than golf balls across parts of the CBD.

Around 3,500 customers lost power, and wind gusts up to 100km/h were measured at Tamworth Airport.

Meteorologist with weatherzone.com.au, Ben McBurney, says it was a rare, but damaging, weather event.

"So, what we had was called a super cell storm, which is the strongest storm you can get," he said.

"In the south-west of Tamworth there were reports of cricket ball-sized hail and very heavy rainfall," he said.

Mr McBurney says Tamworth Airport and south-western suburbs copped the worst of the storm.

"The east side of town didn't get as much, but the highest wind gusts were very, very strong; strong enough, in fact, to lift roofs off houses, and blow down power lines and trees."

The Nationals' member for Tamworth, Kevin Anderson, says he was called by the SES Deputy Commissioner of Operations, Steve Pearce, after the storm.

Hundreds of emergency calls were processed in and around the Tamworth area.

Kevin Anderson says the damage bill is expected to be significant judging from the calls already logged with the State Emergency Service.

"The Deputy Commissioner, Steve Pearce, informed me that there were about 130 calls in the space of an hour from those residents seeking assistance and that included damage to roofa, damage to cars as well as broken windows from the hail," he said.

Regional General Manager with Essential Energy, Matt Patterson, says thousands of customers lost power.

"We had 3,500 out at the height of the storms and we've been able to restore supply to some customers," he said.

"Some power lines went down in the main part of the town of Tamworth and also poles went down in some of the outlying areas and we sent out a large number of crews to restore supply and patrol lines, too."

In the early evening, a further 1,100 customers lost power in the Quirindi area.


- ABC

ABC 2012













Quoting AussieStorm:


21,582,540 as of 2007 census. maybe 22,500,000 now.
Exactly right..........Your memory is uncanny Aussie
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.I feel very bad for the people in the Phillipines.I have two friends that I work with who have family there and they have been checking in on them to see if their all right.

Before my last departure from the blog I saw people wishing for the Typhoon to intensify into the system that it is now saying "It has all the ingrediants?"."So why won't it intensify?"

Well I hope you all are happy..... be careful what you wish for..It may not be what you always wanted...

I didn't witness this type of behavior whatsoever.
1104. SuzK
Quoting Slamguitar:


No, not historical facts!! Just kidding, I wanted to throw in Cuba even though I'm well versed in the history. Made more sense than saying the commie storm formed near the USSR. Props for noticing. You get a red star!!


Ahhh you just meant the early 60's, you ratfink lol
Ok, Colorado State is calling it a 140kts hurricane, as of 12UTC, which was an hour ago. So that's 161mph sustained, which NHC would advise the public as 160mph. Gusts are probably near 200mph.



Donut.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I didn't witness this type of behavior whatsoever.
When Bopah was a 50mph storm people were wondering why didn't it "take off" becuase of the favorable environment that had surronded the storm.I personally didn't want it to as people were in the path.Of course you didn't probably notice this because you were to busy aruguing probably with Nea about climate change...>.>
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Exactly right..........Your memory is uncanny Aussie

It was just a guess.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't know why it hasn't been upgraded.

It looks like something out of 2005 or 2007 from the Atlantic.

See if I can find something zoomed in from another site.


You mean zoomed in like this?

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I didn't witness this type of behavior whatsoever.
Didn't someone else have the same guitar player icon?
Quoting washingtonian115:
When Bopah was a 50mph storm people were wondering why didn't it "take off" becuase of the favorable environment that had surronded the storm.I personally didn't want it to as people were in the path.Of course you didn't probably notice this because you were to busy aruguing probably with Nea about climate change...>.>


It only strengthened cause it gained longitude.
All the ingredients was there except longitude.
1111. pcola57
My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida






91L doesn't look like much this am..


Quoting SuzK:


Ahhh you just meant the early 60's, you ratfink lol
You must have been a Beach Boys fan
Quoting pcola57:
My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida






91L doesn't look like much this am..



That top image of the visible satellite in your post is so great. It's the same product I use for my area too.
Island of Mindanao in the Philippines, where typhoon Bopha is expected to make landfall and traverse through the northern part of the Island making landfall as a possible CAT 5.

The Island of Mindanao is populated at 25,375,527 according to Wikipedia 2010 estimate.. Popuation density map of the individual states within the Philippines.


Caraga(noted in yellow) which is it's most north and northeastern state on the Island of Mindanao is composed of about 2.5 million people.



Philippines Land Use Map




Quoting washingtonian115:
When Bopah was a 50mph storm people were wondering why didn't it "take off" becuase of the favorable environment that had surronded the storm.I personally didn't want it to as people were in the path.Of course you didn't probably notice this because you were to busy aruguing probably with Nea about climate change...>.>

Cheerleading storms is not nice, Washi.
Quoting pcola57:
My WU weather..

Webcam from my area..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida






91L doesn't look like much this am..


Where is 91L?
Aussie, post # 1109, I think you meant , latitude.
1118. pcola57
Quoting AussieStorm:
Bopha zoomed in loop.


Very good loop Aussie..
I pray for common sense and safety for those affected by Bopha..today is a day of seriousness and a life changing event for many in the Philippines..
Quoting AussieStorm:


It only strengthened cause it gained longitude.
All the ingredients was there except longitude.


It think you mean latitude. Going farther north enabled it to spin faster. It's movement through longitude has actually been a little detrimental taking Bopha into cooler waters.
1120. SuzK
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You must have been a Beach Boys fan


Not especially, more of a Beatles girl :)
Quoting originalLT:
Aussie, post # 1109, I think you meant , latitude.
Quoting Skyepony:


It think you mean latitude. Going farther north enabled it to spin faster. It's movement through longitude has actually been a little detrimental taking Bopha into cooler waters.

Opps. It is almost 2am here. brain stopped functioning at 12am.


Monkayo(103,263)and Bislig (111,133) are a couple of the bigger urban areas to be effected by Bopha.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Opps. It is almost 2am here. brain stopped functioning at 12am.
Aussie putting your health in danger for the blog is not worth it.Go get some sleep.I've witnessed a few times what your body can do when you don't get any sleep.You feel like crap.
1124. pcola57
Quoting TomballTXPride:

That top image of the visible satellite in your post is so great. It's the same product I use for my area too.


TY Tom..
I like it too..keeps updating as time goes by..
I like the visible products most of the time except when significant precip. is involved.. :)
1125. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.I feel very bad for the people in the Phillipines.I have two friends that I work with who have family there and they have been checking in on them to see if their all right.

Before my last departure from the blog I saw people wishing for the Typhoon to intensify into the system that it is now saying "It has all the ingrediants?"."So why won't it intensify?"

Well I hope you all are happy..... be careful what you wish for..It may not be what you always wanted...


You know I was quite stunned myself reading all the profound wishcasting for that storm when it obiviously was heading to Islands that would not be able to cope . I admit ,I beleive most people on here wishcast for open water storms ,I freely admit I adore looking and tracking them, which the E-Pac give us most of the time but I never got why people pull for storms that are heading into Islands without building codes or areas of high population . Its Just my opinion.
I feel bad, the disaster is imminent in philippine :(
Quoting washingtonian115:
Aussie putting your health in danger for the blog is not worth it.Go get some sleep.I've witnessed a few times what your body can do when you don't get any sleep.You feel like crap.

I'm fine. but I know there will be maybe 10's to 100's of people killed on Mindanao Island. I can feel it in my bones. This ain't going to end well for many people there.
1128. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is 91L?



Here it is Wash.. :)
1129. barbamz
I just saw this tweet:

TeleTech Pilipinas ‏@TeleTechPinas
A weather disturbance will affect the Philippines – Typhoon ‘Pablo’ (Bopha) was located based on satellite ...

Weather disturbance??? And I don't add a "lol" ...
WOW, Bophia still strengthening..getting close to maxing out dvorak..

Quoting VR46L:


You know I was quite stunned myself reading all the profound wishcasting for that storm when it obiviously was heading to Islands that would not be able to cope . I admit ,I beleive most people on here wishcast for open water storms ,I freely admit I adore looking and tracking them, which the E-Pac give us most of the time but I never got why people pull for storms that are heading into Islands without building codes or areas of high population . Its Just my opinion.
Some of the most populated areas are going to get smaked pretty hard.I put a anology on the blog a few days ago saying that when a typhoon is headed for land it looks like a car crash in slow motion.That car looks so beautiful out on the raod(In this case the hurricane over water) but when the car is headed on a collision course with something(The hurricane headed for land) the end results are not a pretty site to see.
I thought the Philippines were going to be a little lucky and only have to contend with a Category 3/4 typhoon...

I was wrong.

Bopha is in the neighborhood of 180-190 mph right now.

1133. pcola57
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW, Bophia still strengthening..getting close to maxing out dvorak..



Maxing out the Dvorak is something I've never seen happen..
Bopha is one intense monster.. :(
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW, Bophia still strengthening..getting close to maxing out dvorak..



Skye ~ It looks like timing was the ultimate detriment for this system. Not the system itself per say, but the impact on land.

This system strengthened, weakened (with the EWRC), and then re-strengthened at the wrong time. Had the EWRC occurred before Bopha's approach to Palou, perhaps she would have re-strengthened and then ran into another EWRC heading into land now.

That's not the case here. It appears this will head into there full steam like Megi in 2010 did.
It looks to me like the storm will probably go in at Hinatuan Bay. Has one town at the back of the bay, and probably some other residences too fuzzy to see on Google Earth at other locations. It looks like a fishing and port town, and then to the north there are several farms, all of this on various channels of the Mouth of a River. So not a good place to get hit by a category 4 or 5 landfall at all. Water will get funneled in there and trapped.

I hope they have been sufficiently warned and evacuated.

It's hard to say though. Could be farther north near Lianga Bay, or to the south near Bislig.

There's actually not much showing up on Google Earth for Lianga Bay, so that area must have a lower population than I initially thought (based on the shape of the bay).

There is probably going to be an entire town destroyed no matter where it goes, if it comes in south of Lianga Bay.

Bislig Bay, South of Hinatuan, has several small to medium scale towns and cities around it, and would not be a good place for the eye to go at all, probably the worst place in terms of total potential damage and potential loss of life, but I don't know enough about the region to say for sure.
Bopha~ CI=7.5, raw is 7.5, it's 884.1mb with coldest cloud tops -81.74º.

That is insanely strong for approaching landfall.
Quoting stormchaser19:
I feel bad, the disaster is imminent in philippine :(
This is disgusting to see right here...I haven't had nerves like this for a storm since Ike was headed for Galveston.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Skye ~ It looks like timing was the ultimate detriment for this system. This system strengthened, weakened (with the EWRC), and then re-strengthened at the wrong time. Had the EWRC occurred before Bopha's approach to Palou, perhaps she would have re-strengthened and then ran into another EWRC heading into land now.

That's not the case here. It appears this will head into there full steam like Megi in 2010 did.



I'm not hoping initial land friction would tighten it up to an 8 but I'll give it an outside chance..
Quoting barbamz:
I just saw this tweet:

TeleTech Pilipinas ‏@TeleTechPinas
A weather disturbance will affect the Philippines – Typhoon ‘Pablo’ (Bopha) was located based on satellite ...

Weather disturbance??? And I don't add a "lol" ...

I am wondering why no Signal #4 yet.... Bopha is now within 12hrs of landfall.

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council
NDRRMC Update Sitrep No. 03 Preparedness Measures for Typhoon "Pablo" (pdf)
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW, Bophia still strengthening..getting close to maxing out dvorak..



In this case, it really sucks to be right.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is disgusting to see right here...I haven't had nerves like this for a storm since Ike was headed for Galveston.

Why cheerleading isn't good, Wash.
Quoting Skyepony:



I'm not hoping initial land friction would tighten it up to an 8 but I'll give it an outside chance..


Smaller systems wrap up faster, so the likelihood of this occurring is magnified. Oh no.
Quoting pcola57:


TY Tom..
I like it too..keeps updating as time goes by..
I like the visible products most of the time except when significant precip. is involved.. :)



You're very welcome, PCola.

Quoting Skyepony:
Bopha~ CI=7.5, raw is 7.5, it's 884.1mb with coldest cloud tops -81.74º.

That is insanely strong for approaching landfall.


That's almost as strong as Wilma's peak intensity over water, and it's actually stronger than the Labor Day 1935 hurricane's landfall intensity, which is currently the world record landfall intensity (as far as I know).

It's still about 6 to 8 hours out though, so maybe land interaction starts to weaken it some. We'll see.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Why cheerleading isn't good, Wash.
Cheerleading?.Cheerleading for the storm to weaken and die? yes.
Quoting SuzK:


Not especially, more of a Beatles girl :)
Me too
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Me too


Me Three.

And the Stones.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Cheerleading?.Cheerleading for the storm to weaken and die? yes.


Okay, Washi. Then I agree with you.
TXPQ27 KNES 031506
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 03/1430Z

C. 7.5N

D. 128.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF
7.5. MET = 7.0. PT = 7.5 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

Strange cloud formations around the top of Bopha.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Skye ~ It looks like timing was the ultimate detriment for this system. Not the system itself per say, but the impact on land.

This system strengthened, weakened (with the EWRC), and then re-strengthened at the wrong time. Had the EWRC occurred before Bopha's approach to Palou, perhaps she would have re-strengthened and then ran into another EWRC heading into land now.

That's not the case here. It appears this will head into there full steam like Megi in 2010 did.


We could still see a another eye wall replacement cycle if we are lucky, but time is running out. You are very much correct though about the timing...
OMG, this is bad.

Even if you add the error bar of 15mb in the weak direction back to the estimated pressure, it's still a sub-900mb storm. Which means it's definitely way stronger than Andrew now, at least 20mb stronger than Andrew in fact, even if the estimate is wrong by the maximum error.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Me Three. And the Stones.
And Kinks, Dave Clark 5, Searchers,Leon Russell, Joe Cocker, Janis, Jimi,CSNY
Starting to look like 8 degrees North may be point of landfall on Mindanao...


1154. Grothar
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And Kinks, Dave Clark 5, Searchers,Leon Russell, Joe Cocker, Janis, Jimi,CSNY


Yes!

YES!!

YES!!!



Quoting RTSplayer:
OMG, this is bad.

Even if you add the error bar of 15mb in the weak direction back to the estimated pressure, it's still a sub-900mb storm. Which means it's definitely way stronger than Andrew now, at least 20mb stronger than Andrew in fact, even if the estimate is wrong by the maximum error.


She is moving at a fast clip too, making an eye wall replacement cycle before landfall probably unlikely at this time.
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 7:25:02 N Lon : 127:58:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 911.3mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.5 degrees
One strange thing I have noticed with Bopha is that since the last eyewall replacement cycle, the eye has been relatively cool for a storm of this intensity. If you look at the water vapor loop I have below, notice the eye doesn't really have the black or brownish color that the most intense tropical cyclones do. I wonder if this may be holding back the intensity a bit. However, with the appearance of Bopha at the moment, I'm afraid that any detriment that the coolish eye has on the system is somewhat minor and remains extremely powerful. It also appears that the eye is trending towards warming a bit, which may mean continued intensification.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 7:25:02 N Lon : 127:58:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 911.3mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.5 degrees


So was the previous pressure estimate of 884mb a mistake?
Is there any webcams in the area of landfall? This is a beast, I feel so sorry for the people there.
Quoting RTSplayer:


So was the previous pressure estimate of 884mb a mistake?


One is from CIMSS the lower one from NOAA.
Quoting RTSplayer:


So was the previous pressure estimate of 884mb a mistake?

At 6pm Philippines time Bopha was at 933mb.


PAGASA.... Why have you not issued Signal #4 yet. Bopha/Pablo is a 140kt - 260km/h - 161mph Super Typhoon.

Signal No.3
(101-185 kph winds)

Signal No.4
(more than 185 kph)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Is there any webcams in the area of landfall? This is a beast, I feel so sorry for the people there.

Power would be a problem,,, it's very shaky at the best of times. Brown outs are common.
Super Typhoon Bopha is really something to see. Does anyone know what time landfall is expected?
Just issued....


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 03 December 2012

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 230 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
Coordinates:7.4N, 128.3E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 210 kph

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What the Frogs


Movement: West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:
expected to be in the vicinity of Bacolod City
Wednesday evening:
180 km Northwest of Puerto Princesa City
Thursday evening:
670 km West of Metro Manila
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1167. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just issued....


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "PABLO" (BOPHA)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 03 December 2012

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 230 km Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
Coordinates: 7.4N, 128.3E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 210 kph
???????
Movement: West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:
expected to be in the vicinity of Bacolod City
Wednesday evening:
180 km Northwest of Puerto Princesa City
Thursday evening:
670 km West of Metro Manila



That's just not right. this is a unit conversion error.

I know they probably using 10min sustained winds, which might actually be right, I don't know, but the gusts are clearly wrong and ridiculous.

A T-7.5/7.6 hurricane typically has gusts of over 200 Miles per hour, not kilometers per hour. In kph that is supposed to be more like 320kph for gusts...
Panel on New York%u2019s Future After Sandy
by Earth Institute | 12.3.2012 at 10:52am


In Hurricane Sandy%u2019s wake, debate is growing over how New York City and the region should rebuild and how best we can can adapt to climate change. The discussion continues this afternoon with a live webcast from Hunter College, where two Earth Institute scientists will join a panel on %u201CHurricane Sandy and Challenges to the NY Metropolitan Region.%u201D

What did the storm tell us about extreme storm events and future climate in our region? What did it tell us about our vulnerabilities to future extreme events? What are the key opportunities and challenges of potential adaptation strategies?
...

The event takes place today (Dec. 3) from 2-5 p.m. at Roosevelt House, Hunter College, 47-49 East 65th Street (west of Park Avenue). It is by invitation only, but you can watch it streamed live on the web here.

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/12/03/panel-on- new-yorks-future-after-sandy/
1170. flcanes
Quoting RTSplayer:
OMG, this is bad.

Even if you add the error bar of 15mb in the weak direction back to the estimated pressure, it's still a sub-900mb storm. Which means it's definitely way stronger than Andrew now, at least 20mb stronger than Andrew in fact, even if the estimate is wrong by the maximum error.

what storm
bopha? claudia.... lolol