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The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:05 PM GMT on March 24, 2010

It's been a busy past two months of weather and climate change news, and I haven't found time to blog about the research presented at December's American Geophysical (AGU) meeting in San Francisco. That is the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, and the place to be if you want to get the pulse of the planet. The keynote speech at the AGU meeting was given by Dr. Richard Alley of Penn State University. Dr. Alley is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. A standing-room only audience of over 2,000 scientists packed the lecture hall Dr. Alley spoke at, and it was easy to see why--Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker. I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute talk via a very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.


Figure 1. Dr. Richard Alley of Penn State University, delivering the keynote speech at the 2009 AGU conference on climate change.

The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History
Earth's past climate has been shaped by a number of key "control knobs"--solar energy, greenhouse gas levels, and dust from volcanic eruptions, to name the three main ones. The main thrust of Dr. Alley's speech is that we have solid evidence now--some of it very new--that CO2 has dominated Earth's climate over the past 400 million years, making it the climate's "biggest control knob". Dr. Alley opens his talk by humorously discussing a letter from an irate Penn State alumnus. The alumnus complains that data of temperatures and CO2 levels from ice cores in Antarctica don't match:

"CO2 lags Earth's temperature...This one scientific fact which proves that CO2 is not the cause of recent warming, yet...Dr. Alley continues to mislead the scientific community and the general public about 'global warming'. His crimes against the scientific community, PSU, the citizens of this great country, and the citizens of the world are significant and must be dealt with severely to stop such shameful activities in the future".

Dr. Alley explains that the irate alumnus is talking about the Antarctic ice core record, which shows that as we emerged from each ice age, the temperature began increasing before the CO2 did, so increased CO2 was not responsible for the warmings that brought us out of these ice ages. Climate change scientists and skeptics alike agree that Earth's ice ages are caused by periodic variations in Earth's orbit called Milankovich Cycles. "There's no doubt that the ice ages are paced by the orbits", says Dr. Alley. "No way that the orbit knows to dial up CO2, and say 'change'. So it shouldn't be terribly surprising if the CO2 lags the temperature change. The temperature never goes very far without the CO2. The CO2 adds to the warming. How do we know that the CO2 adds to the warming? It's physics!"

Dr. Alley then discusses that the physics that govern how CO2 absorbs and re-emits heat energy, when plugged into state-of-the-art climate models, show that about half of the observed 5 - 6°C natural warming that occurred since the last ice age ended was due to extra CO2 added to the atmosphere. At the peak of the Ice Age, CO2 was about 190 ppm. By the end, it was about 280 ppm (Figure 1). Earth's orbital variations "forced" a warming, which caused more CO2 to escape from swamps and oceans, with a time lag of several centuries. The increased CO2 reinforced the warming, to double what it would have been otherwise--a positive feedback loop. "Higher CO2 may be forcing or feedback--a CO2 molecule is radiatively active regardless of how it got there", says Dr. Alley. "A CO2 molecule does not remember why it is there--it only remembers that it is there". In other words, the fact that higher CO2 levels did not trigger an end to the Ice Age does not mean that the CO2 had no warming effect. Half of the the observed 5 - 6°C natural warming that occurred since the last ice age ended was due to the extra CO2 added to the atmosphere. So, the irate PSU alumnus was half right. The CO2 does lag temperature. However, we can only explain approximately half of the warming since the last ice age ended if we leave out the increase in CO2 that has occurred. "If higher CO2 warms, Earth's climate history makes sense, with CO2 having caused or amplified the main changes. If CO2 doesn't warm, we have to explain why the physicists are so stupid, and we also have no way to explain how a lot of really inexplicable climate events happened over Earth's history. It's really that simple. We don't have any plausible alternative to that at this point".


Figure 2. Ice core record from Vostok, Antarctica, showing the near-simultaneous rise and fall of Antarctic temperature and CO2 levels through the last 350,00 years, spanning three ice age cycles. However, there is a lag of several centuries between the time the temperature increases and when the CO2 starts to increase. Image credit: Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences: Global Warming Facts and Our Futures, originally provided to that site by Kurt Cuffey, University of California, Berkely.

CO2 and temperatures rise and fall in synch
Dr. Alley continues with a discussion of how CO2 and temperature levels have risen and fallen in synch over most of geologic time. But for many years there was still a mystery: occasionally there were eras when temperature changes did not match CO2 changes. But new paleoclimate research, much of it just in the past two years, has shown that nearly all of these mis-matches were probably due to suspect data. For example, the mismatch in the Miocene Era has significantly improved, thanks to a new study published this year by Tripati et al. Another example occurs during the Ordovician Era 444 million years ago, as discussed in a recent post at the excellent skepticalscience.com blog.


Figure 3. Atmospheric CO2 and continental glaciation, 400 million years ago to the present. The vertical blue bars mark where ice ages have occurred. The length of the blue bars corresponds to how close to the Equator the ice sheets got (palaeolatitude, scale on the right side of the plot). The left scale shows atmospheric CO2 over the past 400 million years, as inferred from a model (green area) and from four different "proxy" fossil sources of CO2 information. This is Figure 6.1 of the Palaeoclimate chapter of the 2007 IPCC report.

Is there anything else we should be worried about?
Dr. Alley continues with a discussion of other influences that may be able to explain global warming, such as volcanos, changes in solar output, and cosmic rays. A whole bunch of the competing hypotheses don't work", says Dr. Alley. "When there's a bunch of big volcanos, they make it cool. If volcanos could get organized, they'd rule the world. There might be a tiny bit of organization due to flexing of the crust, but they're not controlling the world".

Regarding solar changes: "When the sun changes, it does seem to show up in the temperature record. As far back as we can see well, the sun is friendly, it doesn't change much. If the sun changed a lot, it would control things hugely. But it only changes really slowly--as far as we can tell. The record doesn't go back as far as we'd like, and there's work to be done here--but it just doesn't seem to be doing much".


Figure 4. Greenland ice core proxy measurements of temperature (top curve) and cosmic ray flux (bottom curve) for the past 60,000 years. The Earth's magnetic field weakened by 90% 40,000 years ago, for a period of about 1,000 years, but there was no change seen in the temperatures in Greenland.

Regarding cosmic rays: "The sun doesn't change much, but the sun modulates the cosmic rays, the cosmic rays modulate the clouds, the clouds modulate the temperature, and so the sun is amplified hugely. It's really interesting hypothesis, there's really good science to be done on this, but there's reason to think its a fine-tuning knob". He goes on to show an ice core example from a period 40,000 years ago (Figure 4) where the Earth magnetic field had near-zero strength for hundreds of years. This allowed a massive flux of cosmic rays to penetrate to the Earth's surface, creating a huge spike in ice core Beryllium-10, a radionuclide made by cosmic rays. If cosmic rays were important to climate, we would expect to see a corresponding major swing in temperature, but the ice core shows no change during the period of enhanced cosmic ray bombardment 40,000 years ago. "We had a big cosmic ray signal, and the climate ignores it", Dr. Alley comments.

How sensitive is climate to a doubling of CO2?
The IPCC report talks extensively about computer climate models' calculations of "climate sensitivity"--how much Earth's climate would warm if CO2 doubled from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm, to 560 ppm (we're currently at 390 ppm). A mid-range number from the 2007 IPCC report often used by climatologists is that the climate sensitivity is 3°C for a doubling of CO2. Dr. Alley takes a look at what paleoclimate has to say about the climate sensitivity to CO2. "The models actually do pretty well when you compare them to the past. The best fit is 2.8°C.

Dr. Alley concludes, "Where we really stand now, is, we're not quite at the pound on the table, this story is very clearly not done. But an increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of global average climate of the Earth."

I'll have a new post Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Maybe not, but the warming associated with CO2 increases can certainly trigger an eventual collapse. At this rate it looks like a collapse of most of the Greenland Ice Sheet is inevitable as melting has spread from the southeast to Jakobshavn Isbrae.


It may be the mother of all triggers.

I apologize in advance if this post multiplies.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Maybe not, but the warming associated with CO2 increases can certainly trigger an eventual collapse. At this rate it looks like a collapse of most of the Greenland Ice Sheet is inevitable as melting has spread from the southeast to Jakobshavn Isbrae.


It may be the mother of all triggers.

I apologize in advance if this post multiplies.
Good thing you appologized in advance...LOL!
1004. JRRP

1005. Grothar
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Of course the climate has been much warmer than today, but the current warming is occuring much more quickly. The important thing is that the ecosystems are adapted to the current climate and a drastic change in it will mean a mass extinction, and looking at past climate proxies and floral remnants, we can acertain what kind of change could be expected with the warming today. (I also found the quote button, which you hid)


I am really getting tired of people talking about the climate of Greenland. It hasn't changed in millions of years. I just got back from a trip there and I want to show you a picture I just took. See, nothing has changed.

LOL---Great--didn't see pic coming. Funny, but I guess I shouldn't laugh.
1008. hydrus
Quoting jojotown:
LOL---Great--didn't see pic coming. Funny, but I guess I shouldn't laugh.
Yeah, If Greenland ever looks that tropical, a lot of people will be taking the boat to work instead of a vehicle. :)
TRMM of Paul

FULL SIZE
Can anyone suggest a site that has a hail swath path built in i can get for free. Or the best site to track hail other than Nexrad. Not sure what is available but anything you can suggest is appreciated.
Hey Storm W nice to hear from you in 2010.


I see thou eye!
Thanks Storm I will check it out.
1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND SUNSET.

THE LOCAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR...AND THIS WILL1 ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BEGIN TO ROTATE AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...COLD AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN HAIL FORMATION AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS STARTING THIS VENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN ACQUIRE SOME ROTATION... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED. MAKE SURE ADEQUATE MEANS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION ARE EASILY ACCESSIBLE.

Melbourne Radar


Who let the dogs out?!

GOMIRLoop
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 3:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 90
kilometres south of Nhulunbuy and 105 kilometres north northeast of Alyangula.

The cyclone is currently near-stationary on the coast near CAPE SHIELD and is
expected to move further inland later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between
Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar during today and Tuesday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
north to ELCHO ISLAND and west to MILINGIMBI later today and further west to
MANINGRIDA during Tuesday if the system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... nearly stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Monday 29 March.

Jacksonville has tied their record for consecutive days not reaching 80 degrees. Jacksonville will break this record tomorrow.

Extract from this afternoon's JAX wx discussion:

.CLIMATE...
TODAY TIES THE RECORD FOR 103 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT REACHING 80
DEGREES AT THE JAX AIRPORT. REFER TO THE PNSJAX FOR MORE INFO. LOOKS
LIKE RECORD WILL BE BROKEN ON MONDAY...EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY APRIL 1ST.


Storms getting closer.
StormTracks
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL, CATEGORY 2 (11U)
5:00 AM CST March 29 2010
=================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 (988 hPa) located at 13.0S 136.7E or 90 kms south of Nhulunbuy and 105 kms north northeast of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
=================
10 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
45 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

The cyclone is currently near-stationary on the coast near CAPE SHIELD and is expected to move further inland later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar during today and Tuesday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend north to ELCHO ISLAND and west to MILINGIMBI later today and further west to MANINGRIDA during Tuesday if the system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Tuesday.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to Milingimbi.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.0S 136.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 12.9S 136.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 12.8S 136.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.2S 137.5E - 40 kntos (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================
TC Paul has shown signs of intensification during the last 6 hours, with deep convection consolidating over the LLCC and banding features becoming more prominent. The cyclone is near stationary on the Arnhem coast, south of Nhulunbuy. A relatively large,ragged eye is evident on Gove radar. At 1800Z DT=3.5 with a 0.7 wrap [white band]. MET=3.5, PAT=3.5. Dvorak FT=3.5 based on DT. The broadscale environment remains favourable for further intensification, with low vertical wind shear and good outflow to the south and north of the system.

The cyclone is forecast to remain close to the coast during the next 6-12 hours and remain at similar intensity. While NWP still shows significant longer-term divergence, a consensus has the TC move westwards initially, over land, so slight weakening expected. Subsequently, the influence of a mid-level ridge should see the low move eastwards again and move over Gulf waters in the 48-60 hour period, where rapid intensification may occur.

The cyclone may weaken into a deep monsoon low within 24 or 48 hours, if it remains over land, causing near gale-force winds and heavy rainfall over Arnhem Land. There is a fine balance between a low/mid-level ridge to the south and a ridge to the northeast of the system.

Depending on the evolution of this pattern
there is still also risk that the system could move back over the southern Arafura Sea later in the week where a re-intensification scenario would also be expected.
1023. xcool
ilove Weathertap
Quoting TampaSpin:
THIS CRAP HAS GOT TO STOP!!!!
Another female blogger just contacted me about harresment on WeatherUnderground. Why is this necessary. I have had at least a dozen females that have complained to me personally over the last year. There simply is no place for this stuff. It isn't just female harressment but, just the attacks by others just because you don't agree with a weather or unrelated position. Some i swear pick a person every day and i think most know who i am talking about just to start a fight. This all has to stop immediately. Have a good day.

JFV?
Quoting xcool:
ilove Weathertap
i use tap myself best information on the web
1026. xcool
Weathertap SATELLITE BEST update time i think is 5 minutes
Quoting altesticstorm10:

JFV?


I'm a Floridian. Next time JFV comes 'round these parts, I'm bringing out the shotgun.
Fights break out over scarce drinking water in China
Choi Chi-yuk
Mar 29, 2010
The PLA Air Force dispatched aircraft to trigger artificial rain to ease the worst drought in a century that has seen dozens of fights break out over drinking water in the southwest of the country....
storms are here nothing too bad locally e cent florida
Stop with the global warming it has been the coldest year in 30 in south west florida climate changes every year get off the al gore band wangon our planet does its own thing not what al gore says it will do!!!
The cell causing the tornado warning for south Brevard is headed right at me. Lets hope that shifts a little..
I was just noticing that, Skye.

Link
Quoting wayne0224:
Stop with the global warming it has been the coldest year in 30 in south west florida climate changes every year get off the al gore band wangon our planet does its own thing not what al gore says it will do!!!

One cold year in one place does not dis prove GW I have never read a book or listened to a speech my Al Gore there is just too much evidence for GW, most posts against GW I see here are it's cold here and Al Gore is wrong, very few provide actual evidence.
Quoting wayne0224:
Stop with the global warming it has been the coldest year in 30 in south west florida climate changes every year get off the al gore band wangon our planet does its own thing not what al gore says it will do!!!


whats a band wangon?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm a Floridian. Next time JFV comes 'round these parts, I'm bringing out the shotgun.


I wish I knew what he did other than be annoying.
Here's mine


Weather plug got ya'll unless I loose power



1038. Patrap
Keep ya head down skyepony..

Inbound Squall Line,Bow echo style..
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's mine


Weather plug got ya'll unless I loose power




hopefully that'll die out soon I still get in the basement though
Yup you're in the line of fire.
Hope everyone's in and safe!
1041. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


TORNADO WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 548 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
TORNADO WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 542 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 529 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
TORNADO WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 517 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
TORNADO WARNING COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 459 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
1042. Patrap
Double trouble..Now 2 TVS returns



1043. beell
Photobucket
Quoting all4hurricanes:

hopefully that'll die out soon I still get in the basement though


Would be good advice if anybody around here in brevard county had basements. But you can't build them here, the water table is too high.

Its looking like the worst of the storm is going to go just south of me though. Not even raining here much yet, just lots of thunder.
1045. ricderr
you know wayne....i'm not a true beliver that global warming is influenced enough by man as much as it is cyclical event...but idiot comment from bozos like you...make it hard to think we're on the same side
1046. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Sorry I should have known that. Is there some shelter, you don't want to gamble with nature.
1048. Patrap
559
WFUS52 KMLB 282155
TORMLB
FLC009-282245-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.100328T2155Z-100328T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SATELLITE BEACH...PATRICK AIRFORCE
BASE...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

* AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VIERA...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH
CAMP...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. A SECOND AREA OF ROTATION WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF HOLLY FISH CAMP.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
MELBOURNE...SUNTREE AND INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCC025-071-097-119-159-282230-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100328T2230Z/
GASTON NC-CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-IREDELL NC-ROWAN NC-
550 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR ROWAN...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG...NORTHERN CABARRUS AND
EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED
A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE NORTH OF PAW CREEK...OR
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROFT...
HUNTERSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! DAMAGE IS BEING REPORTED WITH THIS
TORNADO! MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED IMMEDIATELY
FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF
BUSINESS! GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK OUT A LOW SPOT IN AN OPEN AREA AWAY FROM
ROADS. SHIELD YOUR HEAD FROM THE DANGERS OF FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8101 3530 8113 3540 8103 3540 8095
3548 8095 3582 8060 3574 8043 3555 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 223DEG 35KT 3532 8092

$$
MCAVOY

Twister on the ground in North Carolina.
1050. Patrap
Thats a Bad cell...and the Shuttle is on the Pad,,so the ET tank is subject to Hail in the current track of that cell.

I'm were the circle with the cross in it is in that picture. Colvert is as close as I got to a basement.

1052. Ighuc
My goodness, we just had snow accumulations and frost most of last week and now we are scheduled to hit 80 on Thursday. Gotta love midwest springs... :)

Anyone have radar of the severe storms in the mid-Atlantic? Hope everyone is okay!
Quoting wayne0224:
Stop with the global warming it has been the coldest year in 30 in south west florida climate changes every year get off the al gore band wangon our planet does its own thing not what al gore says it will do!!!


Like I always say…“So goes southwest Florida, so goes the planet”. I think Hee Haw’s cornfield is calling your name.
according to NWS spokesperson on Ch 13, two loci of circulation; 65 to 70 mph winds with the southern one; the northern is weaker but could restrengthen as it gets closer to the coast.
About what time should the West Palm Beach area be affected?

Quoting Patrap:
Thats a Bad cell...and the Shuttle is on the Pad,,so the ET tank is subject to Hail in the current track of that cell.



It'll be STS-117 all over again.. poor Clay Anderson (he was on STS-117 also) lets hope no hail rains down on the shuttle, especially 8 days from launch.
1058. beell
Photobucket
1059. ricderr
so far no severe hail threat
1060. xcool
Don't worry, all the arrogant fools who continue to backup their global warming b.s. down the bitter end.

As for me, I'll just sit back, relax, grab a fishin pole, catch some trout, and watch as silly "intellectuals" waste time babbling and getting upset over something that never exists.


Honestly, its sad there are so many smart people that fall prey to arrogance. I think all scientists supporting global warming are FAR too smart to believe in something so foolish, lacking no scientific basis. The reason the believe it is blindness and foolishness because of their pride.

I'm in the process of a meteorology degree, and let me tell ya, this stuff is very, very hard, so I know how smart it takes to get where I'm going.

Yet sadly so many smart people are so blind.





Oh well, the truth ALWAYS comes out in the end. So have fun getting upset and arguing over something that doesn't even exist :)
1062. Patrap
Troll for fish,save a worm..

LOL
Quoting Jedkins01:
Don't worry, all the arrogant fools who continue to backup their global warming b.s. down the bitter end.

As for me, I'll just sit back, relax, grab a fishin pole, catch some trout, and watch as silly "intellectuals" waste time babbling and getting upset over something that never exists.


Honestly, its sad there are so many smart people that fall prey to arrogance. I think all scientists supporting global warming are FAR too smart to believe in something so foolish, lacking no scientific basis. The reason the believe it is blindness and foolishness because of their pride.

I'm in the process of a meteorology degree, and let me tell ya, this stuff is very, very hard, so I know how smart it takes to get where I'm going.

Yet sadly so many smart people are so blind.






Oh well, the truth ALWAYS comes out in the end. So have fun getting upset and arguing over something that doesn't even exist :)

If were so arrogant give us some evidence that disproves GW
That goes for people saying GW exists too I want facts not squabble
If I may interpret your post you said you're no weather expert and there are experts that think GW exists and they're fools
Also if you say you'll fight against GW to the bitter end wouldn't that be ignorant and arrogant? shouldn't you keep an open mind?
1064. ricderr
nice to see all it takes is being in the process of getting a met degree and you're an expert....tonight...i'll stay at a holiday inn express...tomorrow i'll know it all
Looks like the storms are about to move off the coast.

MelbourneRadarLoop
1066. ricderr
yep...now to watch the tail end just over sebring now as it goes over my neck of the woods
1067. Patrap
Like in the Dark Ages,folks will dismiss what they cannot,or fail to understand..,even when presented with the data.

Some believe the World is still Flat and that we didnt Walk on the Moon as well,..but it makes the facts no different.

Earth has been round for 4.5 Billion Years now,man,..but a few Tens of Thousands..

We will be forgotten as easy as a Dream after awakening..




I like my trout fried,with Almonds,Lemon's and Butter,or "Trout Almondine",..

Yeah,Baby..!!
Earth to Skye...
Please report in as you can. That southerly cell on the red/green bl posted 1058. looked suspiciously cyclonic on SRV loop as it passed N of Melbourne.
1069. aquak9
Yet sadly so many smart people are so blind.


Well...there's dumb blind people, too.
1070. aquak9
barefoot please check your mail-
After tonight and tomorrow...beautiful weather down here in our neck of the woods:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Mar 28 Tonight
Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially late. A few storms may be severe. Low 72F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Mar 29 Tomorrow
Thunderstorms likely. High 73F. Winds SW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall possibly over one inch.

Mar 29 Tomorrow night
Partly cloudy. Low 52F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.

Mar 30 Tuesday
Abundant sunshine. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

Mar 31 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

Apr 1 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Apr 2 Friday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.

Apr 3 Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Apr 4 Sunday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Apr 5 Monday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Apr 6 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Quoting aquak9:
Yet sadly so many smart people are so blind.


Well...there's dumb blind people, too.

I'm remaining mute on that topic (groan-er)!
Interesting that the forecast keeps TC Paul near the coastline for the next several days. Long range shows that the remnants of Paul could move back over the water later in the week as well.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 6:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 100
kilometres south of Nhulunbuy and 95 kilometres north northeast of Alyangula,
moving south at 4 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The cyclone is currently moving slowly south parallel to the coast and is
expected to move inland later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop between
Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar during today and Tuesday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
north to ELCHO ISLAND and west to MILINGIMBI later today and further west to
MANINGRIDA during Tuesday if the system takes a more northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 6:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Monday 29 March.

1075. aquak9
I'm remaining mute on that topic (groan-er)!

Now it's usually the mute people who are the smart ones, cause they spend more time listening than running their mouths!
Northern Australia must be getting 10 in of rain! Paul is looking very good for being a few miles off shore
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Northern Australia must be getting 10 in of rain! Paul is looking very good for being a few miles off shore


yea and I wouldnt be shocked if Paul continued to stay offshore and never really went inland

Each advisory I have seen keeps the track over land for less amount of time than the advisory before it

The 4-day has TC Paul as a 1000mb tropical low over the gulf of Carpentia (sp?)
1079. beell
2140 8 W CHARLOTTE
MECKLENBURG NC
3520 8098
SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR NEAR CATAWBA RIVER AND WILKENSON BLVD. (GSP)

2206 MELBOURNE
BREVARD FL
2808 8061
POSSIBLE TORNADO ON CYPRESS BEND CIRCLE OFF JOHN RODES BLVD. TREE BRANCHES BROKE SEVERAL WINDOWS OF A RESIDENCE. (MLB)
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCC057-282330-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100328T2330Z/
DAVIDSON NC-
658 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR DAVIDSON
COUNTY...

AT 651 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
A TORNADO...
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...
OTHER DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
WELCOME...ARCADIA...MIDWAY... AND LEXINGTON.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CHARLOTTE. IF
YOU OBSERVED A TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS...OR LARGE HAIL...PLEASE
NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
RALEIGH.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3585 8039 3589 8041 3590 8037 3597 8037
3599 8033 3599 8021 3602 8021 3601 8004
3569 8005 3563 8029 3569 8033 3571 8033
3571 8038 3574 8046 3577 8046 3583 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 224DEG 39KT 3581 8033

$$
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Earth to Skye...
Please report in as you can. That southerly cell on the red/green bl posted 1058. looked suspiciously cyclonic on SRV loop as it passed N of Melbourne.


I'll second this request. Any word?
TORNADO WARNING
NCC067-081-282330-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0003.100328T2300Z-100328T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER COLFAX...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF BELEWS CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMMERFIELD...STOKESDALE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7955 3624 7953 3620 7953 3600 8001
3622 8012 3626 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 224DEG 39KT 3616 7997

$$

77
Wow. Just north of Charlotte, just north of Greensboro.... Hope the impacts are relatively small.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Climate Change Killed Dinosaurs, Scientist Says


So the massive crater off the Yucatan caused by what might have been an asteroid the size of Everest that just so happens to be the same time the dinosaurs went extinct didn't even have an effect? Somehow I doubt that climate change solely killed of the dinosaurs, I think they went hand in hand.
TORNADO WARNING
NCC057-067-081-151-290015-
/O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0004.100328T2314Z-100329T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 710 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
WELCOME...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH. TENNIS TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIGH POINT...
COLFAX...
SUMMERFIELD...
LAKE TOWNSEND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 8032 3606 8012 3625 7993 3624 7953
3594 7953 3581 7955 3583 8006 3584 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 224DEG 39KT 3595 8016

$$

77


gettin really serious...
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TORNADO 8 SW LEXINGTON 35.73N 80.36W
03/28/2010 DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED AT MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR
CLARK ROAD AND I-85 NEAR LINWOOD. MULTIPLE MOBILE HOMES
OVERTURNED. INJURIES REPORTED.

TORNADO WARNING
NCC033-157-290045-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0001.100328T2341Z-100329T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT.

* AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROETON...OR 7 MILES WEST OF
GREENSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROETON...
REIDSVILLE...
LAWSONVILLE...
RUFFIN...
BETHEL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6
6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7992 3655 7954 3655 7918 3625 7934
3624 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 226DEG 38KT 3611 7992

$$

DS

Anyone know if this is really a longtrack tornado?
Looks like it could be. There've been reports on tornado sighting[s] along a line SW-NE paralleling I-85.....
1092. aquak9
Skye's got no power, since about 6pm. 92 homes without power, FPL still driving around, looking to fix the lines.

Potatoes and blueberries took a beating, but they are all good.
1093. bappit
Hoping for the best in Florida and South Carolina.

Meanwhile I guess I'll read the copy of Dark Mission: The Secret History of NASA that my lunch buddy gave me. He seems to think we never went to the moon, that global warming is a hoax and cigarettes are good for you. He smokes Pall Malls, unfiltered buggers they are. Hmmm, first sentence of the book looks promising: "The NASA that we've known for over 50 years has been a lie."
Weather's starting to move in here. Looks like it's going to be another nasty Monday in Nassau....
NC, SC and GA are getting hammered!!


Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2140 8 W CHARLOTTE MECKLENBURG NC 3520 8098 SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR NEAR CATAWBA RIVER AND WILKENSON BLVD. (GSP)
2206 MELBOURNE BREVARD FL 2808 8061 POSSIBLE TORNADO ON CYPRESS BEND CIRCLE OFF JOHN RODES BLVD. TREE BRANCHES BROKE SEVERAL WINDOWS OF A RESIDENCE. (MLB)
2300 8 SW LEXINGTON DAVIDSON NC 3573 8036 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED AT MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR CLARK ROAD AND I-85 NEAR LINWOOD. MULTIPLE MOBILE HOMES OVERTURNED. INJURIES REPORTED. (RAH)
2327 3 SW HIGH POINT GUILFORD NC 3595 8003 LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR GREEN STREET BAPTIST CHURCH MOVING NE AT 35 MPH. (RAH)
2333 2 WNW HIGH POINT GUILFORD NC 3599 8002 GUILFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMED 20 STURDY HOMES DAMAGED NORTH OF HIGH POINT. (RAH)
2338 4 NW HIGH POINT FORSYTH NC 3602 8004 SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED 3 INJURIES AND EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS ROOFS RIPPED OFF OF SEVERAL BUILDINGS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MILL ROAD AND SKEET CLUB ROA (RAH)
2339 2 N THOMASVILLE DAVIDSON NC 3592 8008 DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE MOBILE HOMES AT VALLEY MOBILE ESTATES, NORTH OF THOMASVILLE ROAD NEAR HASTY. AT LEAST 1 INJURY. (RAH)
0030 CROWDERS GASTON NC 3519 8121 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR CROWDERS MOUNTAIN. (GSP)
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1825 100 5 N DALTON WHITFIELD GA 3484 8498 (FFC)
1903 175 ETON MURRAY GA 3482 8476 (FFC)
1932 100 EPWORTH FANNIN GA 3495 8439 (FFC)
2025 175 MOORESVILLE IREDELL NC 3558 8081 SEVERAL HAIL REPORTS IN THE MOORESVILLE AREA WITH ONE REPORT OF CLOSE TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND OTHERS CLOSER TO DIME SIZED HAIL. (GSP)
2240 175 EASLEY PICKENS SC 3482 8259 1.3 SSW OF GREENVILLE/PICKENS SPEEDWAY (GSP)
2248 175 3 NNW TAYLORS GREENVILLE SC 3496 8233 PEEBLE CREEK AREA WITH GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL (GSP)
2300 175 6 SE EATONTON PUTNAM GA 3326 8332 (FFC)
2312 175 1 SW REYNOLDS PLANTATIO GREENE GA 3341 8323 (FFC)
2312 100 6 W SPARTANBURG SPARTANBURG SC 3494 8203 QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE WEST VIEW AREA ABOUT ONE MILE WEST OF WEST GATE MALL. (GSP)
2314 100 1 W WELCOME DAVIDSON NC 3591 8027 1 INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 52. (RAH)
2330 100 SILOAM GREENE GA 3354 8308 (FFC)
2347 175 GAFFNEY CHEROKEE SC 3507 8166 (GSP)
2350 175 RAYLE WILKES GA 3379 8290 (FFC)
2350 100 6 S JONESVILLE YADKIN NC 3615 8084 QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR I77/US 421 INTERSECTION. (RNK)
0020 100 CALHOUN FALLS ABBEVILLE SC 3409 8260 SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING IN THE CITY. (GSP)
0026 100 3 W BLACKSBURG CHEROKEE SC 3512 8157 QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE 96 MILE MARKER ON INTERSTATE 85 WHICH IS NEAR BLACKSBURG. (GSP)
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1600 UNK 3 NE HENAGAR DEKALB AL 3466 8570 TREES FELLED AND DAMAGE TO THREE CHICKEN COOPS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 727 NEAR COUNTY ROAD 667. ON ONE OF THE COOPS...A 75 FT SECTION OF ROOFING WAS REMOVED. TIME ESTIMATED (HUN)
1826 UNK 5 NE DALTON WHITFIELD GA 3482 8491 SEVERAL TREES DOWN. (FFC)
1850 UNK CISCO MURRAY GA 3495 8474 THREE TREES DOWN. (FFC)
2140 UNK BELMONT GASTON NC 3525 8104 *** 1 INJ *** ROOF BLOWN OFF BUILDING INTO MOBILE HOME PARK...IN OR NEAR BELMONT NC. ONE LADY TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITAL WITH NON LIFE THREATENING INJURIES. (GSP)
0010 UNK 3 SE BLACKSBURG CHEROKEE SC 3509 8148 TREES KNOCKED DOWN (GSP)
We've gotten nothing. Was playing football early this afternoon, heard 2 claps of thunder and called the game. We got a sprinkle. And that's it.
Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!...

Tornado Warning issued for Okeechobee County.
Power is back..FP&L said 9pm, they were even a few minutes early.. I heard there is damage on Aurora other side of Wickham Rd plus the one in Cypress Bend. Haven't heard from my friends there. Got lucky it jumped. Readied the closet when the power failed. Then was looking for it. We heard it go over & maybe a touch north, dull roar, wasn't horribly strong. Potatoes were flattened, a blueberry in bloom down~ straight winds. Pretty kicking cloud to ground. I think the house blocked the true wind from the PWS which topped at 16.7mph.
Glad you are safe Skye. And job well done to FPL to getting power restored so quickly.
Quoting bappit:
Hoping for the best in Florida and South Carolina.

Meanwhile I guess I'll read the copy of Dark Mission: The Secret History of NASA that my lunch buddy gave me. He seems to think we never went to the moon, that global warming is a hoax and cigarettes are good for you. He smokes Pall Malls, unfiltered buggers they are. Hmmm, first sentence of the book looks promising: "The NASA that we've known for over 50 years has been a lie."


Ask him if the world is flat. ;)
Just heard a transformer blow.. grid feeling fragile tonight here.
Quoting Skyepony:
Power is back..FP&L said 9pm, they were even a few minutes early.. I heard there is damage on Aurora other side of Wickham Rd plus the one in Cypress Bend. Haven't heard from my friends there. Got lucky it jumped. Readied the closet when the power failed. Then was looking for it. We heard it go over & maybe a touch north, dull roar, wasn't horribly strong. Potatoes were flattened, a blueberry in bloom down~ straight winds. Pretty kicking cloud to ground. I think the house blocked the true wind from the PWS which topped at 16.7mph.


Welcome back in one piece.
Where is Jeff tonight? Our severe weather and tornado expert?
Quoting Skyepony:
Power is back..FP&L said 9pm, they were even a few minutes early.. I heard there is damage on Aurora other side of Wickham Rd plus the one in Cypress Bend. Haven't heard from my friends there. Got lucky it jumped. Readied the closet when the power failed. Then was looking for it. We heard it go over & maybe a touch north, dull roar, wasn't horribly strong. Potatoes were flattened, a blueberry in bloom down~ straight winds. Pretty kicking cloud to ground. I think the house blocked the true wind from the PWS which topped at 16.7mph.


Glad to here you are doing fine...I was getting a little anxious when there were several queries and no answer. Guess the power outage explains that. Hope there was minimal damage from the storms for those affected. You certainly don’t ever forget that sound once you have heard it. Take care.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Central and South will be under the gun all night with severe wx and i think it will get wors after 12 or 1am all the way till noon Monday. Already had 1.4" and more on the way. Guys in Florida be safe tonight and beware of the weather situation unfolding as more energy is arriving soon.
Some area in the Florida penisula could get 6" plus tonight which will cause serious flooding in low lying areas.
1109. spathy
Sky
That bites the power went out just as storm hit.
Your station missed all that good info.
Glad you didnt have to use the closet.
1110. bappit
Looks like spring is here for real.
1111. hahaguy
Getting some lightening in port st lucie.
1112. bappit
Somewhat good news ...

... The Tornado Warning for southeastern Okeechobee County is
cancelled...

The severe storm that prompted the warning had weakened and was no
longer capable of producing a tornado. As a result... the warning has
been cancelled. However... heavy rain... gusty winds and dangerous
lightning strikes will continue to be possible.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL, CATEGORY 2 (11U)
11:00 AM CST March 29 2010
=================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 (987 hPa) located at 13.3S 136.4E or 130 km south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 65 kms north of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: D3.5/3.5/0.5/24HRS

The cyclone is currently close to the coast and is expected to move inland and weaken slightly later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes a more northerly track. GALES may extend further west to Maningrida or south to Port Roper during Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Wednesday.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from west to Maningrida and south to Port Roper.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 136.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 13.3S 135.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.7S 135.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 13.9S 137.1E - 50 kntos (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================
TC Paul is moving slowly southwest parallel to the Arnhem coast, south of Nhulunbuy. A relatively large, ragged eye is evident on Gove radar. At 0000Z DT=3.0 with a 0.6 wrap. MET=3.5, PAT=3.5. Dvorak FT=3.5 based on PAT.

The broadscale environment remains favourable for further intensification, with low vertical wind shear and good outflow to the south and north of the system.

The cyclone is forecast to move slowly west close to the coast during the next 6-12 hours and remain at similar intensity. While NWP still shows significant longer-term divergence, a consensus has the TC move westwards initially, overland, so slight weakening expected. Subsequently, the influence of a mid-level
ridge should see the low move eastwards again and move over Gulf waters in the 72 hour period, where rapid intensification may occur.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1006 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

VAC083-290245-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100329T0245Z/
HALIFAX VA-
1006 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 1001 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALTON...OR NEAR
TURBEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTON...
CLUSTER SPRINGS...
VIRGILINA...
HITESBURG...
STAUNTON RIVER STATE PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 7854 3663 7857 3665 7862 3669 7865
3667 7869 3659 7871 3654 7876 3655 7902
3664 7903 3674 7868 3672 7867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 253DEG 34KT 3659 7894

$$

DS

The maximum temperature of 42.4°c was recorded at Jharsuguda (Orissa).
1116. ricderr
just got a vortex signature east of PSL
Found a 1/3 a 20' orchid tree down, next to the house (5' from the AC unit). I think it was dead from the extended freeze.

Thanks for the good vibes ya'll. Got lucky things weren't more unstable.

Spathy~ I've got the data, it's just not online.
Closer it turns..step by step...inch by inch...Going to be noisy tonight.



Happy music time since the blog is slow:

Quoting ricderr:
just got a vortex signature east of PSL


It's following that highway..
1120. ricderr
yep....looking for a mobile home park
1121. ricderr
waiting for X4 to do the same once it passes the lake
No watches or warnings yet.


Loop

Ut oh. I don't think the NE wants any more wet stuff.
1124. bappit
Started reading Dark Mission: The Secret History of NASA by Richard Hoaglund and Mike Bara.

I have to admit the authors write well--though they could use a good editor. They give a great hook in the beginning.

"As [Frank] Bristow [head of the JPL press office] watched approvingly, his 'guest' proceeded to hand each available reporter a copy of whatever he'd been putting on the seats back in the Auditorium.

"As I opened up the handout, something yellow and silvery fell on the tile floor. It was a shiny American flag, maybe four inches lengthwise, made of aluminized mylar. I turned to the couple of mimeographed pages and began to read--and couldn't believe my eyes.

"The date was July 22, 1969. The three Apollo 11 astronauts ... were still halfway between Earth and the 'Sea of Tranquility.' Yet here, someone with an obvious 'in' to JPL was handing out a mimeographed broadsheet to all the real reporters ... claiming that 'NASA has just faked the entire Apollo 11 Lunar Landing...on a soundstage in Nevada!'"

"I did what I saw the other veterans do: I casually threw the two pages in the trash and tucked the shiny flag into my notebook. But the seed had been planted."

"In this way, it would become a naturally-reproducing meme ... which is exactly what NASA apparently intended to plant at JPL that afternoon. To deliberately 'infect' the American culture with the story that 'the Moon landing was all a fake!'

"Was this all some far-seeing 'back-up plan' if, in some point in the future, it started to emerge why the astronauts had really gone to the Moon?

"Fox, the 'fair and balanced' network, activated the meme in 2001--with the Did We Land on the Moon? special. There, waiting in the wings was a neatly-packaged 30-year-old 'conspiracy theory' perfectly gift-wrapped for those finally beginning to 'disbelieve' in NASA. An officially concocted 'inoculation' against troublemakers who would one day place before many of those same national reporters a set of embarrassing official Apollo photographs, asking the crucial question: 'What did NASA really find during its Apollo missions to the Moon?'"


If they had continued to write a conventional thriller, they might have made a bunch of money off this book.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No watches or warnings yet.


I'm concerned for your area as thing are going get crazy in your area in about 3 hours. S FL will get hammered later as C FL did earlier.
I had a lightning strike a telephone pole about a mile from me as I was working outside with no rain when this happened. Numerous lightning stikes here in wester Seminole county earlier. It was very much like a summer storm.
That cell coming across Lake O is a nasty one and headed right for the Palm Beaches.
926 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THESE AREAS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...COIN SIZE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO TO FORM. EVEN AFTER THESE STORMS DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND BE SURE TO HAVE A MEANS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION OVERNIGHT BEFORE GOING TO SLEEP.
... ...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.


So far over 9" at house north of Orlando this month with 18" for the year.
1130. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.




SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 1043 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1040 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1031 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
TORNADO WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 1029 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
TORNADO WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
the two tone talk
Reluctantly off to bed, night all.
rufus the dufus ya still here with the talk of two tone
Welcome back Dufus..I mean Rufus.
TORNADO WARNING
VAC037-083-290345-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0005.100329T0252Z-100329T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1052 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT.

* AT 1048 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
ALTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TURBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTON...
CLUSTER SPRINGS...
DRYBURG...
REDOAK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6
6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 7849 3671 7863 3668 7862 3664 7854
3663 7855 3665 7862 3669 7865 3667 7869
3659 7871 3654 7876 3655 7917 3664 7918
3694 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 240DEG 39KT 3656 7908

$$

DS
I don't usually say this often since I like to remain calm and rational with my forecasting, but things are going to get really nasty across South Florida overnight. Just analyzing radar has me on edge tonite and could have me staying up later than anticipated watching for any severe weather alerts.

not much more than some heavy rain for a few hours and a couple rumbles of distant thunder here in sarasota today, .80 inches of precip recorded pn the PWS,not expecting any rough wx for my area overnight probably about another .50 inches expected...
Quoting stillwaiting:
not much more than some heavy rain for a few hours and a couple rumbles of distant thunder here in sarasota today, .80 inches of precip recorded pn the PWS,not expecting any rough wx for my area overnight probably about another .50 inches expected...


Another 1/2" LOL!! Expect 1.5 to 3" overnight with thunderstorms beginning to build right now across W C FL.
watch the squall line break apart by the time it reaches southern Florida.
Quoting BenBIogger:
watch the squall line break apart by the time it reaches southern Florida.


A new line is forming arcoss the big bend of FL and this may become the main line and sweep down the penisula during Monday.
Squall line seems to be building in...More intense tomorrow...







TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from west to
Maningrida and south to Port Roper.

At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 130
kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 65 kilometres north of Alyangula,
moving south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The cyclone is currently close to the coast and is expected to move inland and
weaken slightly later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast
near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend
north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes
a more northerly track. GALES may extend further west to Maningrida or south to
Port Roper during Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 136.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Monday 29 March.
Quoting AussieStorm:






TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from west to
Maningrida and south to Port Roper.

At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 130
kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy and 65 kilometres north of Alyangula,
moving south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The cyclone is currently close to the coast and is expected to move inland and
weaken slightly later today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast
near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend
north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes
a more northerly track. GALES may extend further west to Maningrida or south to
Port Roper during Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 136.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Monday 29 March.


Kinda reminds me of TC Nelson (2007)
According to the 8PM EST Observation Sounding for Miami, FL, the environment continues to become more unstable and more conducive for severe weather. Moisture continues to increase at a fairly rapid, but steady pace and should be approaching near 2.00 inches by tomorrow morning as deep tropical moisture continues pouring in on the southerly flow. In addition, CAPE values continue to climb and have neared the 2000 J/Kg mark and lift continues to strengthen in the atmosphere. But the most concerning development in the most recent soundings shows turning in the atmosphere in the lower levels and increasing shear. Both things are indicative of an environment where a tornado could form. In fact, the most recent sounding shows this in the Sig. Tornado Index.



Overall, the atmosphere has become quite unstable and continues to become even moreso as the night progresses over South Florida. For the first time all year, I actually do think that there is a notable tornado threat for the South Florida area. So for all those in South Florida, please stay advised to any watches and warnings posted and turn on your NOAA Weather Radios if you have one.
1151. JRRP
good bye Shawn Michaels
Quoting JRRP:
bye Shawn Michaels


LOL...Taker's streak continues!
1153. Patrap
If one has a NOAA Weather Alert Radio..there is never a reason for it to be "off".

Be sure to have Fresh Batteries in your NOAA Weather Alert Radio for Emg Backup in Case one should Lose AC power.



1154. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...Taker's streak continues!

yeah jejejeje
And Hart beats Vince with the sharpshooter! That was a no brainer.
Never knew we had so many WWE fans here on the blog. Gotta say that was the best Wrestlemania I have ever seen.
Even though my specialty is geomechanics/fluid phase behavior I will continue to post as long as the AGW snowball fights continue.

Today I witnessed an Italian team from the Milan Polytech Institute set a new record of 12.453,XX MPG of fossil fuel equivalent mileage with their solar powered car, Appolos (spelled in Greek). I had to joke with them that it is because of the superior quality of the Houston sun (which CANNOT economically viably support solar PV on a sustainable basis).

Information on CO2 from the soil is interesting. STOP FOCUSING ON THE PROBLEM AND FOCUS ON SOLUTIONS. International Biochar Initiative. Look it up. Since I am looking at coal fired carbon plant capture alls I can say is a much better alternative :). Of course, what do you want? The lights to go out? Or perhaps an electric powered car to go out? Hey, where is the incremental eletricity coming from on the grid? Solar? Wind? No, coal peaking plants. Even if you buy clean energy every incremental KwH is from... coal. Dirty coal.

Without even trying I have found my own actions to be an excellent sales point that actually sells windows, outdoor kitchens, and roofs (of the metal sort). Yah, and I am afraid I am a horrible sales person for solar water since it INCREASED my carbon footprint owing to the bad design (that is being charitable) of the backup (tommorrow, in goes a hybrid CH4 system and then diddle with the solar, as a sunk cost, to maximize efficiency). Hybrids. Yah. I got to watch the feedback from a solar powered car (not the winner) today and said, yah, this is just like a hybrid. "Yup".

There is not a single solution (hybrids rule, despite solar's success on the racing track... and failures, but I will not report those).

The point is that if folks who are concerned about AGW (myself being one of them) actually DID something about it and focus on solutions (I understand fully that the scientists do science, which is important) THIS SNOWBALL FIGHT OVER AGW WILL CEASE.

Worst case scenarios. Doesn't really help to introduce these into the debate since this is outside of the IPCC bounds. However, if the Antartic sheet melts what will happen to the methane hydrates worldwide (terrestial sort)?

My worst case scenario is worse than yalls. Avoid the WORST CASE SCENARIO and DO SOMETHING!!!!!

And no I didn't shut off my lights since as one person pointed out the peaking requirements for plants (especially since I have CFLs) will actually WASTE ENERGY. STOP WASTING ENERGY!!!!!

STOP TALKING. DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Never knew we had so many WWE fans here on the blog. Gotta say that was the best Wrestlemania I have ever seen.


Did you know Jim Ross has his own website? He honestly answers all wrestling questions. It's pretty interesting. J.R.'s Blog
Severe T-Storm Warning for portions of Palm Beach County.
1160. JRRP
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Never knew we had so many WWE fans here on the blog. Gotta say that was the best Wrestlemania I have ever seen.

was pretty good
1161. Patrap
Wrestling?


Wrestling occurs in the NCAA,and High School.
Not on TV.

Dats acting.

Sowwy to break it to yas..

554
WGUS52 KRAH 290424
FFWRAH
NCC081-290715-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0009.100329T0424Z-100329T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1224 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

* AT 1216 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED HEAVY RAIN OVER GUILFORD COUNTY. THE RAIN HAD BEEN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM
JUST NORTH OF GREENSBORO TO HIGH POINT. IN THAT AREA...DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THAT AS MUCH AS 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY HAD
FALLEN DURING THE EVENING. WITH RAIN CONTINUING...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH FIVE INCHES.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE MCLEANSVILLE...HIGH
POINT AND GREENSBORO.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WAS ONGOING ON BRUSH CREEK AT MUIRFIELD
ROAD IN GUILFORD COUNTY. THE LATEST STAGE WAS 9.98 FEET. MINOR
FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Severe T-Storm Warning for portions of Palm Beach County.


Hate to say this, but let the games begin.
I know more about the history of pro wrestling than I do about Climate Change!!!
1164. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
Wrestling?


Wrestling occurs in NCAA,and High School.
Not on TV.

Dats acting.


Sowwy to break it to yas..

554
WGUS52 KRAH 290424
FFWRAH
NCC081-290715-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0009.100329T0424Z-100329T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1224 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

* AT 1216 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED HEAVY RAIN OVER GUILFORD COUNTY. THE RAIN HAD BEEN
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM
JUST NORTH OF GREENSBORO TO HIGH POINT. IN THAT AREA...DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THAT AS MUCH AS 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY HAD
FALLEN DURING THE EVENING. WITH RAIN CONTINUING...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH FIVE INCHES.

* LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE MCLEANSVILLE...HIGH
POINT AND GREENSBORO.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WAS ONGOING ON BRUSH CREEK AT MUIRFIELD
ROAD IN GUILFORD COUNTY. THE LATEST STAGE WAS 9.98 FEET. MINOR
FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.




i know!!!!
1165. ricderr
know more about the history of pro wrestling than I do about Climate Change!!!

and that's a good thing?
1166. Patrap
..I know ya know,..

LOL..just scaring da masses some
Kurt Angle!
1168. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I know more about the history of pro wrestling than I do about Climate Change!!!

lol
1169. Patrap
There is no bigger Misnomer in the World than "pro Wrestler"

Save for Tiger Woods "PR Man" maybe.
Quoting ricderr:
know more about the history of pro wrestling than I do about Climate Change!!!

and that's a good thing?


Lol...On this blog, yes it is!
1171. Patrap
TC Paul Rainbow Image




Viz Image



Dvorak





Here we go....

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL, CATEGORY 2 (11U)
2:00 PM CST March 29 2010
=================================

At 12:30 pm CST, Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 (983 hPa) located at 13.2S 136.3E or 80 kms north of Alyangula and 125 kms south southwest of Nhulunbuy. has 10 minutes sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

The cyclone is currently close to the coast and is expected to move inland and weaken slightly early on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes a more northerly track. GALES may extend further west to Maningrida or south to Port Roper during Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING today and Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today and Tuesday.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida and south to Port Roper.
Drove from N. Fl. to s. fl.today, lots of water this year. Reminds me of the old saying if you believe this, I have some cheap land in Fl. for you. Hope we don't have a wet, wet season this year. Hey at least we haven't heard about Forrest fires for a while. Knock on wood.
1175. noshoes
from NOAA:
Weather Radio for Special Needs individuals...deaf, blind, hard of hearing, low vision:

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/edu/safety/specialneeds.html
Morning All.

Statement as of 5:38 AM EDT on March 29, 2010

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern rural Broward County in Southeast Florida...
southwestern rural Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
east central rural Collier County in southwest Florida...

* until 630 am EDT

* at 536 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Miccosukee
Indian reservation... moving northeast at 25 mph.

This storm is also capable of producing quarter size hail... and
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Collier/Broward line and Alligator alley...
Miccosukee service Plaza...
intersection Alligator alley and Miami canal...
and surrounding communities.

Morning Gang! unbelievable amount of lightning coming across the glades

1178. IKE



Good Morning. Drove through some of the rain in Florida from West Palm Beach to Tallahassee yesterday but with the exception of the front exiting US on the Atlantic, and the storms associated with that frontal/low, looking like an awesome Spring week for most of the SE US once the front exits to the Atlantic.....Enjoy the upcoming beautiful weather this week....)
Yes, this week spring will be in full swing. Our Carribbean friends have not been so lucky. Let's hope they get some rain down there soon!
Impressive graphic of those very warm anomalies in the MDR.Also look east of Masachussetts.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAMARAC...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...FORT
LAUDERDALE...DAVIE...

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

* AT 751 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
DAVIE...
SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
SUNRISE...
LAUDERDALE LAKES...
NORTH LAUDERDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
An incredible amount of rain has fallen over the Orlando area the last 24 hours with most areas picking up 1.5 to 3" so far. I picked up 2.53 at my house and it's still coming down. Also, there is some flooding in the area this morning as we have picked up over 10" so far this month in Seminole County and around 20" for the year and it's not even the rainy season yet.
I've got 2.02" & it's still coming down. Nice sleeping weather.
welll. we have one trying to spin up.. duck and cover!



[Tornado Vortex Signature] C0 62 dBZ 38,000 ft. wow!!47 kg/m 30% chance heavy hail 100% chance hail 0.75 in. 21 knots WSW (247)
Quoting Chicklit:
Yes, this week spring will be in full swing. Our Carribbean friends have not been so lucky. Let's hope they get some rain down there soon!
Good morning. We could really use the rain. We have only had 1.14" since the beginning of the year. It is DRY.
Quoting Skyepony:
I've got 2.02" & it's still coming down. Nice sleeping weather.


Skye, It must have been hairy in your area yesterday with that tornado close by.
nothing hairy here just about 2 inches of rain ready for the payout surfs up
Morning all,jeff9641 i got about 1.40 in so far. I see it should be dry for about 2 weeks.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all,jeff9641 i got about 1.40 in so far. I see it should be dry for about 2 weeks.


Yeah, after this this is it for awhile atleast until late next week we may have some more severe wx like 10 to 11 days down the road. One thing is for sure temps will rise to 85 to 90 this weekend thru next week so the heat is on.
1193. help4u
Wrestling,daily apocalypse,ultra man,I love this site!!
Quoting Skyepony:
I've got 2.02" & it's still coming down. Nice sleeping weather.

I got up early to the sound of rain to work on taxes. Happy Passover. Stay safe out there.
Many roads will be flooded this morning.
Wrestling is seriously lame. The fake acting one, not the one in high schools.

I'd rather watch paint dry...lol
How's everyone doing?

Looking forward to another season of Dr. Masters' blogs and learning more about the tropics. I have learned a lot over the past couple of years from him and numerous members on this site. I just hope the Bozo's stay away (I know fat chance).
1198. NEwxguy
Anyone know where I can buy a used ark,need one quick,here in the northeast
We've had about 3.66 inches of rain fall since 2am this morning.

Link
Good Morning Everybody,
I sure hope that the Blog will change today because I just can't see myself chatting about "GW".....
Here's a little fact that I see about "GW" & "CC".... We are 8 degrees cooler today than yesterday and we will warm to 15 degrees above that by Friday.... There you go.....

Have A Great Day
:0)
marco:up the road here on siesta key w/only picked up 1.28 inches in the last 24hrs....and here comes the sunshine,forecast for sarasota the next 5 days wall to wall sunshine and highs around 75,why I live here;)
Just Issued




TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 9:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 70
kilometres northwest of Alyangula and 160 kilometres south southwest of
Nhulunbuy, moving west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is crossing the coast just south of Cape Shield. During Tuesday it
is expected to weaken as it remains over land. Late Wednesday it is likely the
cyclone will move back into Gulf of Carpentaria where it may reintensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast
near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend
north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes
a more northerly track. GALES are likely to extend south to Port McArthur or
possibly west to Maningrida late Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future
movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING tonight and Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts tonight and Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 136.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals




Quoting Chicklit:
Yes, this week spring will be in full swing. Our Carribbean friends have not been so lucky. Let's hope they get some rain down there soon!
We are hoping for the best it is very dry and a small shower will not help us any more . We have a cold front moving trough today but the squall line has passed already and we just had a little drizzle pass that amounted to 10 seconds of drizzle . Link
Quoting stillwaiting:
marco:up the road here on siesta key w/only picked up 1.28 inches in the last 24hrs....and here comes the sunshine,forecast for sarasota the next 5 days wall to wall sunshine and highs around 75,why I live here;)


yup, love it.
Undersea volcano could destroy Italy 'as soon as tomorrow', expert warns

EUROPE'S largest undersea volcano could disintegrate and unleash a tsunami that would engulf southern Italy "at any time", a prominent vulcanologist has warned.

The Marsili volcano, which is bursting with magma, has "fragile walls" that could collapse, Enzo Boschi told the leading daily Corriere della Sera.

"It could even happen tomorrow," Prof Boschi, president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology said

"Our latest research shows that the volcano is not structurally solid, its walls are fragile, the magma chamber is of sizeable dimensions," he said.

"All that tells us that the volcano is active and could begin erupting at any time."

The event would result in "a strong tsunami that could strike the coasts of Campania, Calabria and Sicily," Prof Boschi said.


The undersea Marsili, 3000m tall and located some 150km south-west of Naples, has not erupted since the start of recorded history.

It is 70km long and 30km wide, and its crater is some 450m below the surface of the Tyrrhenian Sea.

"A rupture of the walls would let loose millions of cubic metres of material capable of generating a very powerful wave," Prof Boschi said.

"While the indications that have been collected are precise, it is impossible to make predictions.

"The risk is real but hard to evaluate."


# From correspondents in Rome
# From: AFP
# March 30, 2010
Colony Collapse Disorder continues in 2009 as bees disappear from US

THE decline in the US bee population, first observed in 2006, is continuing, a phenomenon that still baffles researchers and beekeepers.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture showed a 29 per cent drop in beehives in 2009, following a 36 per cent decline in 2008 and a 32 per cent fall in 2007.

This affected not only honey production but around $15 billion worth of crops that depended on bees for pollination.

Scientists call the phenomenon "colony collapse disorder", and it has led to the disappearance of millions of adult bees and beehives and occurred elsewhere in the world, including in Europe.

Researchers have looked at viruses, parasites, insecticides, malnutrition and other environmental factors but have been unable to pinpoint a specific cause for the population decline.

The rough winter in many parts of the United States will likely accentuate the problem, Jeff Pettis, lead researcher at Department of Agriculture's Bee Research Laboratory in Maryland, said.
Winter figures will be published in April.

But preliminary estimates already indicated losses of 30 to 50 per cent, president of the American Beekeeping Federation David Mendes said.

"There are a lot of beekeepers who are in trouble," he said.

"Under normal condition you have 10 per cent winter losses ... this year there are 30, 40 to 50 per cent losses."

He said the phenomenon probably resulted from a combination of factors but that the increased use of pesticides appeared to be a major cause.

"I don't put my bees in Florida because the last couple of years there has been tremendous increase in pesticide use in the orange crop to fight a disease," he said.

"It's a bacterium and the only way to control this disease is to use pesticide ... a few years ago they did not use any pesticide at all."

Research conducted in 23 US states and Canada and published in the Public Library of Science journal found 121 different pesticides in 887 samples of bees, wax, pollen and other elements of hives, lending credence to the notion of pesticides as a key problem.

Mr Pettis said the finding of pesticide residue was "troubling".

# From correspondents in Maryland
# From: AFP
# March 30, 2010
Cyclone Paul weather batters tiny Territory communities



Strong winds and heavy rainfall courtesy of Tropical Cyclone Paul have battered the small indigenous community of Umbakumba on Groote Eylandt's east coast.

The category two cyclone is currently near Blue Mud Bay on the east Arnhem Land coast and the weather bureau expects it to move inland over the next 24 hours.

Umbakumba residents are preparing themselves for more wild weather.

A high tide this morning has added to flood levels throughout the area.

Local resident, Nadia Sankovitch said the town's 350 residents were worried about further impacts from Cyclone Paul.

"There is a large hole in the road between Enerogoo and Umbakumba. It is approximately 1.5 metres deep, two metres wide and it spans right across the road," Ms Sankovitch said.

"So we are cut off at the moment form the township of Alyangula.

"The East Arnhem Shire Council has erected warning signs in problem areas.

"The local school will act as an emergency shelter is required.

"I think people are a little bit worried, we have had the shop open this morning so people were able to stock up on things out there.

"So, I think everybody knows that it is coming and we are just waiting to see what happens."

A teacher at a remote school in eastern Arnhem Land said about 90 people have been without power or water since yesterday as a result of the cyclone.

The Yilpara community has taken refuge in the school building overnight to escape heavy wind and rain being unleashed by the category two system.

Wukka Mununggur said storm surges have brought flooding within metres of homes and wind gusts have taken their toll.

"A couple of houses are alright. [In] some areas, toilets are knocked down by the wind and some trees are knocked down," Mr Mununggur said.

The Northern Territory weather bureau says the main impact of Tropical Cyclone Paul is expected to be confined to the Arnhem Land region.

It has remained almost stationary north of Cape Shield off the Territory's east coast.

Senior Forecaster Graham King said unless the system becomes highly unpredictable, the western Top End is unlikely to experience anything other than squally conditions.

"We are just going to have to see how far it drifts once it does cross the coast later today," Mr King said.

"The eastern Top End is certainly going to be very wet in coming days, particularly the coastal regions.

"The Gulf country regions down in the bottom of the Gulf I would say will also get pretty wet at some stage or continue to be wet."

- ABC
Tornado reported in Miami. Nice tornado video on the news.

03/29/2010 0831 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports debris in roadway near 38th St
and NW 4 Avenue




03/29/2010 0835 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports trailers turned over, roofs
collapsed and garage door damage near 40th St and NE 5
terrace.




03/29/2010 0835 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports power lines down on Prospect
Road near Andrews




03/29/2010 0835 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports roof damage near 40th St and NE
5 Avenue




03/29/2010 0836 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports power lines down and roof
damage at lawn Mower repair shop near 40th St and NE 6
Avenue




03/29/2010 0836 am

5 miles NNE of fort lauderd, Broward County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m61.00 mph, reported by trained spotter.


Wind gust of 61 mph reported by trained spotter




03/29/2010 0836 am

Oakland Park, Broward County.

Tornado, reported by broadcast media.


Channel 4 weather reports debris and furniture in the
roadway at Oakland Park Blvd and NE 4 Avenue
Hope everyone has a decent week, despite or in spite of some weather events!

This just appeared on the Yahoo home page -- it's an ABC video piece, "Twisters in South Leave Path of Destruction." Sorry I can't locate embed...anybody savvier than me might be able to do that.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=18866127
Thank you for the information about the Marsilli Volcano that was one I had no knowledge of.
Hello Everyone! :)

Just got back from Carlsbad Caverns. On our way by car from the caves on Saturday early evening, an earthquake hit just west of our position on the highway. What did we feel? Not much! It was like a cheesy $.25 bed massager that only worked for 3 seconds.

USGS Report on Carlsbad, NM Earthquake of 3/27/2010

Here are a couple of pictures from the trip. In the group picture of me and my family, you can see one of my new GoPro Hero HD video cameras that I'm going to be using this upcoming hurricane season. Look how small it is! :)



1211. CycloneOz 11:11 AM EDT on March 29, 2010

Nice pictures & Nice Family..............

1213. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:

mmm.. toasty water..
1215. JRRP
Quoting jeffs713:

mmm.. toasty water..

yeah but a bit colder than days ago
Quoting JRRP:

yeah but a bit colder than days ago

In the GOM and western caribbean, definitely so. The ATL isn't as much of a difference.
I wasn't going to do this at all. I was going to just let it pass.

But little bothers me more than a forecast of uncertain parameters that contains certain words like "will". And a follow up of "I'll remember you next week when..."

So Wednesday of last week we got a forecast here that Gulf of Mexico temperatures "will" warm by 5 - 7 degrees in one week. There *has* been a little warm up along the Atlantic coast of Florida. In the Gulf? Nothing. But we do have 2 days to go before the week will have passed.

This plot covers last Thursday through current:


A lot of movement to do in the next 2 days...or...someone might need to ponder about a new/old adage from Miles Lawrence (NHC): "you should never make a forecast you don't have to make"
1218. Levi32
Morning all.

These are the sea-level pressure anomalies for the past week. The high pressures in the central Atlantic are a significant deviation from what the entire winter has been like. It is about this time of year, as we get ready to head into April, when we start to come out of winter and watch the patterns to see what the summer may have in store. We will be keeping an eye on things in the Atlantic to see what kind of foreshadowing we may be able to pick up on before the hurricane season starts.

One of the problems I'll have converting some of these pictures from Carlsbad Caverns is scale. From looking at Photo 1, you cannot tell how really big these formations are.

Luckily, I took a picture of my wife and daughter standing next to one of the formations in the original picture. I resized the family photo to fit the scale of the original...and Wha-La! Scale! Amy and Elena are approximately 5'6" tall.

PHOTO 1 - Without Scale
\

PHOTO 2 - With Scale
If anybody is in ST. Petersburg, fl. It's free admission to the Indy Car race, but it almost over so hurry.

But 1 min walk from my work and I can hear them from my desk.
Levi,what do you make of that very warm anomaly east of Masachussetts?

1223. Patrap
TC Paul Rainbow Image




WV Image



Dvorak


1224. NRAamy
MARCO!!!!!!
new blog :)
1226. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,what do you make of that very warm anomaly east of Masachussetts?



That's mostly representing a warm Gulf Stream flowing southeast of New England. It's been interesting to notice how well the deep currents like the Loop Current and the Gulf Stream have been showing up on the anomaly maps this winter. This means that a lot of the cold water in the gulf and off the SE coast is just shelf water that has been hammered by the cold winter just like everything else, but the deep waters are still quite warm. That means it won't be very hard at all to warm up the gulf and SE US coastal waters.