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The big weather meeting

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:34 AM GMT on January 17, 2007

Greetings from the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Antonio, Texas! At the world's largest gathering of meteorologists, the main topic of conversion has been--drum roll--the weather! Mostly, we�ve been grumbling about the nasty ice storm here, which has left city streets deserted and given the local school kids a holiday. Why couldn�t our record warm winter weather have lasted another week?! The large-scale weather pattern over the Northern Hemisphere has indeed changed to a decidedly wintery one, not only for North America, but northern Asia as well. Even Europe appears likely to get some real winter weather starting next week. I speculate that part of the reason for this shift is that the Arctic ice has finally frozen up enough to cut off the extra heat and moisture that was retarding formation of the usual cold Arctic air masses at the beginning of winter. Natural variability of the weather is probably the major factor, though.


Figure 1. Global departure of temperature from average for December 2006. Image credit: NCDC.

The other big topic of conversation has been the unbelievably warm winter we�ve had up until now. Talks I�ve attended given by meteorologists from both the U.S. and Europe have emphasized how unusual this winter was--and most of 2006. Take a look at the newly-released image (Figure 1) of the warmest December on record for the globe. The average global temperature for December 2006 was +0.72�C (+1.30�F) above normal, beating out 2003's record of +0.70�C/1.26�F, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Much of the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Siberia recorded their warmest December ever. Below normal temperatures were recorded in the Middle East and northern Africa, but over 80% of the world�s land areas were warmer than average--and not just a little above average! The swath of temperatures more than 5�C (9 �F) above average covering most of the world�s land mass north of 40� north latitude is unprecedented in size in the wintertime historical record, going back to at least 1900.

Record winter warmth in one part of the Northern Hemisphere is usually due to a sharp bend in the jet stream that creates a ridge of high pressure, allowing a warm southerly flow of air into the region. Adjacent regions have a compensating trough of low pressure that brings cold, northerly winds and below normal temperatures. This was certainly the case in January 2006, when the U.S. experienced its warmest January on record. Asia and Europe experienced a brutally cold January. Moscow hit -40�, its coldest temperature since 1979. Parts of Portugal saw their first snow since 1954. Siberia reached -70� F.

Enter December 2006. Again, record warmth was observed over the U.S. and Canada. A compensating cooler than normal area was present over the Gulf of Alaska and western Siberia, but it was very weak. There was almost no cold Arctic air present anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, which is unprecedented in the historical record (going back at least 100 years). What�s the cause of this unusual pattern? Part of the blame probably rests with the late-freezing Arctic ice this year. More open water than ever recorded pumped abnormal heat and moisture into the air, retarding the formation of the usual cold air masses. At an interesting talk titled �Extremes and El Nino� given by Dr. Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research today, he showed that both El Nino and increasing greenhouse gases are probably part of the reason, as well. He averaged together the wintertime temperature anomalies for El Nino events for the 1970s through 1990s, and came up with a plot that showed the typical pattern we expect--a warm winter over Canada and the northern U.S., and cold over Europe and Asia. Next, he showed a climate model simulation of a wintertime El Nino event run using the levels of greenhouse gases that we have now. The model simulation showed wintertime warmth extending into Asia and Europe during El Nino years, much like the pattern in Figure 1, thanks to the increase in greenhouse gases over the past 30 years.

In other talks I heard today, Dr. Roger Brugge of the University of Reading in England estimated that the record warm temperatures measured in parts of Europe this fall would be repeated only once in 5,000-10,000 years, unless climate change were to blame. Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA remarked, �We all know global change is occurring,� and went on to say, �the gun is starting to smoke�, when analyzing the persistent increasing trend in extremely warm events in the Northern Hemisphere.

One cannot blame a single weather event�or single warm year�on climate change. However, the unbelievably warm start to the winter of 2006-2007 is part of an unmistakable pattern that shows human-caused climate change is upon us.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the late post Dr. Masters
One cannot blame a single weather eventor single warm yearon climate change. However, the unbelievably warm start to the winter of 2006-2007 is part of an unmistakable pattern that shows human-caused climate change is upon us.


How depressing.
It looks like winter is going to get its revenge though... already we have seen one of the worst winter storms in years, not to mention a cold snap/ice storm that destoyed most of California's citrus crop:

Thousands remain in dark after nasty ice storm
UNDATED (AP) Some 450,000 customers in several states are still without power in the wake of the big ice storm.

The storm, which coated a swath of the central U.S. and Northeast, is now largely over the Atlantic. But repairing the damage will take days more.

Missouri is hardest hit, with St. Louis and 34 counties declared federal disaster areas. The town of Buffalo, Missouri, lost its power Saturday and may not get it back until next week.

Most of the 18,000 people in McAlester, Oklahoma, have been without power for four days, with more sub-freezing temperatures expected. Parts of Oklahoma may not get power restored until next week.

Meanwhile, the death toll from the storm has risen to at least 50 people in eight states. Most of the deaths are traffic-related.

Freak ice storm ravages Californian citrus trees

Wednesday, 17/01/2007

Citrus trees in the US state of California have been significantly damaged after a freak weekend ice storm.

Three quarters of the navel crop were still on the trees when the storm hit and growers are expected to suffer huge losses.

But Australian Citrus Growers Association spokesman Mark Chown says it is too early to say whether there will be benefits for Aussie growers.

"Certainly it will be widespread but the actual real damage to how much it will affect the market is still early days," he said.

"But I think we've got a looming crisis, which could be quite severe in the fact that we may not have any water next year, so I guess we've got a different problem."

The affected area is situated in California's agricultural central valley.
Mail for you STL.
goodnight
So if this trend continues will there be more rain in the desert regions of north Africa and Arabia? Will more arable land be exposed as regions of Canada and Siberia warm up? Will the cooling in north Africa help slow the advance of the Sahara southward and help the marginal crops grown there?
"...the unbelievably warm start to the winter of 2006-2007 is part of an unmistakable pattern that shows human-caused climate change is upon us."

Oh yeah, you are out of the closet, kiddo. :-) Woo hoo!
Yeppers. Exactly what MKieper said.

OK, now that we've got THAT out of the way...what's coming down the tubes for the 2007 Season?
Well, if you think the Sun Sentinel has some kind of crystal ball or hidden track on long-term hurricane forecast skill, they have started the hype today about the 2007 ATL season: "indications are that 2007 will be a stormier year than normal." [eye roll]
That old saying, "Don't fool with Mother Nature" comes to mind...
I have long been concerned about the melting of the year-round Arctic sea ice, and the implications for global climate change. Glad to hear support for my concerns from those who are up to date and in the know..
I wonder about the correlation between AMS meeting locales and bad weather. A couple of years ago it was in San Diego and they had horrible weather then, and such a possible corellation was remarked.
Japan Meteorological Agency

Low Pressure Area noted in weather chart
=====================================
3.0N 111.0E -- 1010 hPa



the SSD storm identity page went back to 90W instead of the next number.
now marked as 93W on the NRL invest page.
Sun Sentinel has some kind of crystal ball or hidden track on long-term hurricane forecast skill,

actually..the SS is the weak member covering markets dominated by the Palm Beach Post and the Miami Herald...they're trying to do what it takes to increase circulation culminating in the abillity to charge higher advertising rates.....

now...what would intrrrigue me..is what evidence..has swayed the good dr..from a neutral stance to his latest posisition
you know ric its not just dr masters it seems alot of the meterologists who use to say "well i don't want to say global warming" are finnally saying yes i believe this is global warming. Interesting.
Welcome to San Antonio, Dr. Masters. We appreciate the AMS meeting here, but we would have rather had snow. lol

MP....i agree....and..i respect our good dr.....thus...what turned the tide?
WHOA! I've lived in Denver for the last 10 years and this is by far the worst winter I can recall. We have had snow, snow, and snow - never recall 1 to 2 feet of snow being on the ground for more than a few days - let alone 4 weeks and counting. And cold! Dang! Send some global warming here, k?
Great entry Dr. Masters! I am one who uses the word "Climate Change" as well. The Global Warming word just doesnt fly with me. 20 years from now we may be talking about Global Cooling. But, climate change does have its consequences as well, and we are seeing that with our ever changing extreme weather events.
Link

Does anyone else think it's odd that Wilma is on top of the list?
Wilma isn't on top of the list. It's ordered by year.
ohhhh
Thanks
That gives me an idea.In the next few days,I'm going to rank the top ten Florida hurricanes since 1900 and post them on my blog.
Thank you Dr. M. Have you given any talks? If so, would be interested in reading yours and others there on WU, if possible at a later date.
Looking at the dramatic December 2006 temperature anomolies map, I can't help but wonder if the global warming models are properly including all the effects of land and sea heat storage. For one example: As liquids transition to gases (evaporation), large amounts of heat are absorbed without an increase in air temperature - a good example is how moosture clamps daytime temperature excursions. Perhaps, global dewpoint would be a far better overall indicator of global warming than just temperature alone. Just looking at the map and speculating, it seems the excess warmth absorbed during the year in the artic, was being dissipated back southward as winter began - like a large rock in a campfire that stays warm after the fire is out.
As liquids transition to gases (evaporation), large amounts of heat are absorbed without an increase in air temperature

Air temperature decreases.
Big discussions on winter events and the new lowLink
Jeff, I looked at the NCEP reanalysis database for the Arctic (north of 70N) in December, 2006. What i see is that December was the coldest the Arctic has been since December 1998. December 2006 was almost 5F colder than December 2005.

The problem is not a lack of cold air, it's that it was bottled up in the remote regions of the north.
Lets see, rain falling through DRY air.. Air cools as water changes from liquid to gas the water absorbs the heat of the air to "boil" the water... dependent upon the "boiling" point at that height in the air... Water VAPOR hitting cool ocean / ocean air. Water condenses from a GAS to a liquid... heat is released into the air/water at the somewhat constant pressure of sea level. What would global warming do in this case? Or better put, what would indicate more heat in the cycle? Anyone know?
I've got some wunderphotos of the ice storm from last night. Feel free to look!

Link
All these scientists are coming forward and saying that we are in trouble, but yet there seems to be some people who need more of a sign than that.


You guys remember this Link
There no doupt Wilma picked up strength once moving over the loop current in my opinion.Hurricane andrew to this day is at the top of the list on south florida's most devasting hurricane event.There are others indeed that could be added like the 1926 hurricane that killed anywere between 300-600 peoeple across Lake Okeechobee but the miami area has been extremely lucky for a long time now and with continuation of peoeple building along coastal areas will only add to the destrution if a major hurricane were hit the miami area straight on.
I'm thinking you guys will be surprised at my number 1.
My global warming rant

I think using such huge super computers to model global warming is causing excessive heat and thus aiding the global warming... we need to stop this now before its too late. These scientist who still insist on exhaling CO2 and driving COMBUSTION engines and multipling their numbers are in a state of denial. They need to sit at home, hold their breath and quit having a social life. NOW! Before its too late! Did any of them ever invent a car/power plant the uses greenhouse gasses and converts it into non-greenhouse gasses as a byproduct? No. Ok so were buring ourselves out. They need to do something about it now, quit telling us. Invent some green tech. now and stop running your global models. use that brain power soon before your brain boils in its skull. Or just keep warning "us" and see if that does any good.

Whew! I'll go take my pills now. Doc says I should take 3 a day...
Here is a couple of infrared images of hurricane wilma once she began to pull away from land as wilma once again began to intensify.















Overall you can see reintensification took place before reaching heavily populated over south florida meaning miami and broward counties.
Sorry.....Charley was worse than frances or wilma.....I went through all of them in one way or another down here in SWFL....

Wilma was more powerful at sea...but not at impact! Marco Island and Naples were hit good and yes it did go all the way over strong...

however Charley was a beast and DESTROYED things as it went by all the way through the long way up the state..
Does anybody have a sense of what the Southwest (US) can expect for this Sunday and Monday? My mother and sister are supposed to come in Monday, flying from Albuquerque to Orlando and from what my mother just told me, its starting to look iffy.

They live in the mountains near Santa Fe and have practically been snowed in since Christmas.
Why don't we each do a countdown of storms from our respective states?
Charley was smaller...and went by faster, but it was worse for those in the eye
buhdog iam taking about miami dade and broward counties.
You cant really compare Charley and Francis. Charley was fast and very fierce for those near the eye. Francis was tediously slow and nerve-racking and the steady wind for 24 hours was quite destructive because it went on for so long. I honestly think that the length of Francis made it mentally tormenting for many.
Here's my list,ranked in overall and historical impact on Florida (and to a lesser extent stregnth) as a whole,not just in one particular locale.:
Wilma
Andrew
1928 Palm Beach Storm
1926 Miami Storm
1935 Keys Storm
Donna
Ivan
Charley
Frances
I honestly think that the length of Francis made it mentally tormenting for many

Yes, that storm took a while to go through.Jeanne was much faster.
Here are a couple of radar animated gifs of Hurricane Charley on radar...

Click on image to animate


Click on image to animate


Click on image to animate
Good Afternoon Everyone
23---

Yes Andrew can not be rivaled for Miami....I was not around in the 1920's....but I agree with you 23

Frances was not so bad... the whole west side of the storm was dry......and winds were only 100 right? I know mentally it was tough, but I would rather be mentally challenged than
residence challenged!
SarahFromFLA......


NWS Forecast for: Albuquerque, NM
Issued by: National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM
Last Update: 10:22 am MST Jan 17, 2007


This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. East wind around 15 mph.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday: A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 46.

What do you mean the west side of the storm was dry?
Link

Hi Randrewl

... Ice Storm Warning now in effect until 11 am CST Thursday...

The Ice Storm Warning is now in effect until 11 am CST Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain at or slightly below freezing
through the day today and once again overnight tonight. This
coupled with upper level disturbances moving overhead will produce
widespread freezing rain... sleet and snow across the region today
and tonight.

Sheriff and emergency management offices indicate icing occurring
on area bridges... overpasses and roads that have not been sanded
over. Sleet and snow is also being reported across the area.
Sleet... snow and icing will continue to be the primary threat this
morning and tonight. Travel conditions will remain hazardous.

Possible ice and snow accumulations could put some trees and
power lines at risk of falling. Patches of black ice... a type of
ice that is virtually invisible on the Road surface... can be
expected. This icing can cause you to easily lose control of your
vehicle.

Additional ice accumulations between one tenth and one half inch
are possible through Thursday morning.

Conditions are expected to improve late Thursday morning. Please
continue to monitor the latest updated forecasts on this ongoing
weather situation.
Hi Kris....I see the discussion is hurricanes. Something warm!

Thunderstorm2...that warning does not say where?
SE Texas is on that warning
ACCUWEATHER StatementWinter weather has finally arrived across much of the nation. Today, Texas endures another day of icy weather while a blast of arctic air grips the Northeast. Late tonight, a storm developing off the Southeast Coast will set the stage for icy weather across the region. By Friday, the storm will brush the Northeast Coast with snow at the same time that lake-effect snow falls to the lee of the lower Great Lakes.

Texas continues to be hammered by the remnants of an ice storm that is blamed for as many as 54 deaths in nine states. On Tuesday, sleet and snow forced Texas officials to cancel Gov. Rick Perry's inaugural parade and move the governor's inauguration ceremony indoors for the first time in a half-century. The ice storm forced police to close hundreds of miles of highways, including numerous overpasses and the upper deck of Interstate 35 through downtown
snotly said: Invent some green tech. now and stop running your global models

No need to invent anything. Nuclear energy has been around for some time. Complemented by natural sources like wind, water and solar energy, it even becomes a reasonable solution.

Heck! Political measures alone could cut emissions by half. Forbid any personal vehicle of more than 900kg and 75HP for instance. Extend homeworking en develop decent mass transportation services.

Did you know that many medium cars in Europe burn less than 5 liters/100km? That is 50mpg. the average for the USA is 21mpg...
Of course, Europeans pay almost $6 for a gallon.
hi TS2
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX


ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL LET ICE STORM WARNING EXPIRE AT NOON FOR THE COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. 32
Thanks all for the info. I read the weather statement and it doesnt sound too bad. Perhaps she is confusing something, or just worrying too much. But they have had it rough.

My mother says the only way for her to get through the snow out to the road may be on my brother-in-laws backhoe. I tell her that shouldnt be too much for an Alabama farm girl even if she is 80 now.
Of course, Europeans pay almost $6 for a gallon.


That's what it's going to take before we try to raise mpg in America.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST WED JAN 17 2007

...SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WITH NO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...

.SYSTEM THAT RESULT IN ALL THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS...AND WINTRY MIX IN THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT...WINTER PRECIPITATION
HAS STOPPED ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE
WINTRY MIX TO END SOMETIME BY 6 PM OR SHORTLY AFTER OVER ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS...AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
that shouldnt be too much for an Alabama farm girl

lol....they sure have had some snow in the northern areas of New Mexico this winter.
I used to live in SW part of the state.
Snow, Ice Storm Blamed for 55 Deaths
Thousands in several states still without power in wake of winter storm; death toll reaches 55
McALESTER, Okla., Jan. 17, 2007
By JUSTIN JUOZAPAVICIUS Associated Press Writer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(AP) Thousands of people stuck it out in dark, unheated homes Wednesday and hundreds of others hunkered down in shelters waiting for restoration of electrical service knocked out by the snow and ice storm blamed for 55 deaths in nine states.

More than 300,000 homes and businesses in several states were still without electricity Wednesday because of the ice, snow, and high wind that battered an area from Maine to Texas, where roads and schools were closed Wednesday.

At the First Baptist Church in McAlester, Okla., where most of the city's 18,000 residents have lacked power for four days, residents huddled under blankets and in front of space heaters.

"If it wasn't for the shelter, I don't know where we'd be," said Tara Guzman, 38, while playing board games with her four children. "We're tough; we lasted when the power went out until (Monday). We brought mattresses out in the living room and cuddled."

Some 92,000 customers still had no electricity Wednesday in Oklahoma. Little sunshine was expected to help melt the ice until Thursday or Friday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Kevin Brown.

The wave of arctic air that trailed the storm system helped to kick off more freezing rain and snow Wednesday in Texas, closing schools and some businesses and government offices.

Houston and San Antonio were under rare ice warnings Wednesday and icy roads in Dallas slowed morning highway commuters. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport canceled 100 flights. The Austin airport canceled 32 outbound flights and 28 inbound, and ran out of de-icing fluid, officials said.

A 300-mile stretch of Interstate 10 in Texas from Fort Stockton to San Antonio had been closed since Tuesday because of fresh snow atop a layer of ice.

Joe and Sarah Stokhaug were turned away from two fully booked motels after I-10 shut down and they and at least 50 other motorists ended up in a convention center in Ozona.

"They have air mattresses and cots for everybody _ and pizza and doughnuts," Joe Stokhaug said. "We've already made a couple friends here who are from Los Angeles."

Ozona Assistant Fire Chief Brian Morrow said the town was hard-pressed to cope with the stranded visitors.

"We had about 50 cots in route from Fort Stockton but the roads closed up," Morrow said. "The jailhouse has provided blankets and pillows that are normally used for the inmates."

That same cold air mass icing up Texas also turned the Northeast into a freezer Wednesday, with morning lows of 16 below zero at Caribou, Maine, and 19 above in New York City, ending a lengthy unseasonable warm spell, the National Weather Service reported.

The combination of the temperature and wind in Maine produced wind chills as low as 40 below in some areas. New Hampshire's 6,288-foot Mount Washington registered a wind chill of 77 below.

Eighty-five shelters across Missouri were expected to accommodate more than 3,600 people Tuesday night, according to the State Emergency Management Agency. About 163,000 homes and businesses still had no electricity.

In Buffalo, Mo. _ population 2,800 _ nearly all stores, gas stations and restaurants were closed Tuesday.

"There are no services," Mayor Jerry Hardesty said. "I've talked to residents who have lived here 50 years and nobody can remember it ever being this bad."

The town lost all its power by Saturday. Water towers ran dry Sunday, and water service was restored only late Monday, after the National Guard hooked a generator up to a pumping station.

Elsewhere, about 24,000 customers in Michigan were still blacked out early Wednesday, along with an estimated 11,000 in New York state and 12,000 in New Hampshire.

Some New Hampshire customers might not get electricity until sometime Thursday.

"With thick ice continuing to coat power lines, repairs are taking longer than normal. Ice-coated limbs and branches must be lifted off lines by manually banging ice off the trees," Martin Murray, spokesman for Public Service Co. of New Hampshire, said in a statement.

Since Friday, the storm system's waves of freezing rain, sleet and snow have been blamed for at least 20 deaths in Oklahoma, nine in Missouri, eight in Iowa, four each in New York and Michigan, five in Texas, three in Arkansas and one each in Maine and Indiana.
___

Associated Press writers Marcus Kabel in Springfield, Mo., Jeff Carlton in Dallas and David Tirrell-Wysocki in Concord, N.H., contributed to this report.

Image from article:
Anyone got an El Nino update
I'll be back later.Bye
TS2,see my blog.Nothing official,but you'll get the gist of what's going on.
will do kris
thanks STL.I just checked a minute ago and the new one wasn't out.
Thanks for that update
The PDF version isn't anyway.
Does it say January 16th on the first page?
Oh so it does
It does Michael, it never did come out monday when all the grafics updated. Perhaps the holiday.
yes,why?
It rarely comes out on Monday even on a non-holiday.
kris~ Monday is the day it updates, it's almost always out on monday. I've posted the ENSO graphics & linked that PDF about every week here or in my blog for more than a year now. Many times the PDF comes out before the graphics, in the late morning & the graphics are usually out by 1:30pm est.
Well, for the past few months I've been watching the updates, they've come out on Mondays a bit better than half the time.Maybe it's just me.
And when you say graphics, do you mean the subsurface and surface anomalies?Cause if so,thanks for the info,I've been trying to find the schedule.
These graphics...

The links to the different disscusion are there too. Last week we probibly didn't make a big deal of the weekly monday update because of the antisipation of the monthly update that comes out on the 2nd thursday of the month (with the model updates).
Does anyone else think it's odd that the most intense positive anomalies are concentrated almost exclusively over land masses in the Northern Hemisphere? Except for the equatorial Pacific, the rest of the oceans don't seem anywhere near as anomalous.
Over the oceans, temperatures never vary as much as over land.Temperatures over the oceans are much less subject to diurnal and annual changes in temperatures.
Thanks Skye, that's what I meant.
That does seem a bit odd Louis, Hmm. Water Temps are warming in that area to, Only conclusion i have to make, Globel Warming, but it could be other things, look at the SST's From Aug 2006 to Aug 2005, Only reason we didnt have an extreme outbreak was because of El Nino and Year of Shear, Other wise we be almost out of the Greak alpabeat.
The point was actualy, Northen Hemisphere Water Temps are Rising and Take in example Vince! A Hurricane that formed in cool waters but not as Cold as the waters should be and Gordon of Last years re formed to CAT 2 over cold waters, DOes anyone find that Hurricanes are forming over cooler waters strange?
DOes anyone find that Hurricanes are forming over cooler waters strange?


It was most likely caused by cooler than normal temps in the upper levels of the atmosphere.This difference in temperature added to the instability.
I'm sorry, the more correct word would be troposphere,not atmosphere.
Also,I know this is off-topic,but to any Avatar:The Last Airbender fans(I doubt there are many on this site), the news just broke that they will be making a live action movie from the television series.
Hmm including El Nino Years? And what about all this snow. The NHC said it would be a Mild Year, In retro spect it isnt but in Florida its a Hot Winter, Well they did say that last year was soppost to have 19 storms.
Hurricanes forming over cooler water is strange, Hurricane Epsilon is a good example along with others
Not to Froget Zeta, Vince was the Strangest. Could Vince have just been a Polar Low like that Freak in the Pacific in November?
It's going to be a trilogy of movies.
sorry i ment to say hurricane Vince i had the name Epsilon in my head
It looks like Vince was warm,then cold,went towards warm again,then went cold finally.
Link
Hurricane vince formed after a non-tropical frontal low absorbed a subtropical storm
How can a Storm go warm and cold Cored over and over agian? I dont think Vince was Truly Tropical, Even as an Invest It had an Eye! 91C
was a Vince and it wasnt named! Man thats a debate sorta like Ole Dwarf Planet Pluto.
AHh so it was like the Perfect storm from 93'
I've seen it before,Teddy.Of course, no HH was ever in Vince, so we'll never know for sure.
I geuss no Avatar fans here?
There was still some uncertainty as to whether Vince was tropical or subtropical at this time and the forecasters of the NHC conceded that Vince may have already been a subtropical storm before it was named. Vince reached its peak as a hurricane with 75 mph winds later that day, the National Hurricane Center deciding that "if it looks like a hurricane it probably is despite its environment and unusual location".
Cooler than normal temperatures is right; the maximum potential intensity maps here account for not only SSTs, but the thermodynamic profile of the atmosphere. One thing to know is that increased greenhouse gasses result in warming in the lower troposphere but cooling in the upper troposphere (based around a point near the middle of the tropophere), increasing the potential instability. From Dr. Masters' previous blog (realclimate link):

In the case of the Earth, the solar input (and therefore long wave output) are roughly constant. This implies that there is a level in the atmosphere (called the effective radiating level) that must be at the effective radiating temperature (around 252K). This is around the mid-troposphere ~ 6km. Since increasing GHGs implies an increasing temperature gradient, the temperatures must therefore 'pivot' around this (fixed) level. i.e. everything below that level will warm, and everything above that level will cool.


I think that this has some potentially serious implications, especially as warming accelerates (colder upper level temperatures mean higher instability and more intense storms, including but not limited to tropical storms):



SSTs (horizontal axis) vs. upper level temperatures (vertical axis).
STL, what level of the atmosphere are those temps on the diagram at(300mb,200mb)?
Those cyclone phase diagrams are not always accurate; for example, this was for Floyd (1993), showing it to be cold-core (ignore the extratropical warm seclusion stage near Europe):

And why are the different stages different sizes on the diagrams?
sometimes it can be confusing
The size of the circles indicates the average radius of tropical storm force winds at the 925 mb level in kilomerters (see the scale in the lower right; this is somewhat less than the surface winds because it is at the 925 mb level). Also, for tropical storms, intensity is always underestimated - unless you are looking at the very high resolution GFDL model.
But why aren't the squares for the different types of cyclones the same sizes.
Well, that is because the size can change; for example, this is for Super Typhoon Fengshen (2002; the actual intensity was 145 kts; I couldn't find the pressure, but it was probably around 892 mb):



Based on this the windfield was around 1,600 km (1,000 miles) wide at peak intensity.
You don't get what I mean.Why is it that the box for cold cored systems are larger than for warm cored systems?
What a beautiful storm:

Oh, that? Well, I guess it is because cold core systems can be much larger and stronger than warm-core systems, which is why the scale goes to -600 for cold core and 300 for warm core (I don't really know what the numbers mean, other than that higher numbers mean a stronger system; maybe somebody else knows). What you see above is for the strongest warm core system ever recorded, as it says on this page:

Textbook case of deep warm core development associated with a category 5 tropical cyclone. Current TC record magnitude of -VTL & -VTU in four years of analyses (using NGP analyses here).
I wouldn't want to be infront of that storm
It was Andrew.Thanks STL
Im out till later, Bye
bye.

The first formation probabilities of the year.
I think it is hyper-hilarious that Jeff and his
cohorts are grumbling about the Texas ice storm.
Shouldn't they have figured that out ahead of time? A good plate of fatitas and jalepenos will
cure them.

Indeed a buzz saw look as it was heading right for south florida.

Hey everyone. I was wondering if plate tectonics ave a big influence on climate change. The continued separation of the mid oceanic ridge in the Atlantic Ocean could produce a hyper cane.
Hey everyone. I was wondering if plate tectonics ave a big influence on climate change. The continued separation of the mid oceanic ridge in the Atlantic Ocean could produce a hyper cane.


No
If la nina is indeed around come time for this hurricane season then i expect an active season number wise but the most important issue of all is still up in the air which is what kind of steering pattern will be in place this season.Hopefully troffiness sets up and everything is turned out to sea as we saw with most systems in 2006.Its not the number of storms that form that matters its the ones that actually make landfall that have the biggest impact.
true,I'm feeling a ridge this year,though
Bad storms that hit in inactive years:

Andrew
Alicia
The 1900 storm
The 1935 Keys storm
The 1928 Storm
Im back
Here are some more names as it very important not pay attention to the number of systems that are forcasted to develope.It only takes one bad system over a highly populated for it to be a devastating season.

1.Donna
2.Betsy
3.Audrey
4.Fedrick
5.Cleo
hi TS2
Still... the fact is that we're more likely to see a bad storm in an active season.The exception is oddly Florida.Florida is most likely to have a hurricane in a near normal season.
Florida is likely to see some kind of threat in any given season.
If La nina does comes around and bites us in the but by this HS then the number of hurricanes would probelly rise and also by that time the steering currents will hopefully turn everything out to sea as 23 said.
This may sound weird,but I actually do find going through hurricanes interesting.
I worry that alot of people have fallen asleep because of the slow season we just experienced in 2006.Building continues in coastal areas around south florida and one day those folks will be in great danger of losing there lives if a major were to hit in the right place.Wilma was a clear sign of what category 1 winds can do to a heavily populated area as miami dade and broward counties.
Im hoping for a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to sweep through Florida. By the way don't ask why
TS2,you're hoping for it because you just moved to Florida,have heard a lot about hurricanes and want to experience one.I want a hurricane here because I think they're pretty interesting.The adrenaline rush alone is worth it.
H23,speaking of Wilma,were it's strongest winds offshore while it was over Florida like Irene's were?
well i think hurricanes are pretty interesting to
you got an anemometer?
Yes i do
Of course,the problems with anemometers is that it's hard to get them to the 33ft level.
i had big trouble with that
148. ryang
Hi guys.
ill be back again later
I worry that alot of people have fallen asleep because of the slow season we just experienced in 2006.Building continues in coastal areas around south florida and one day those folks will be in great danger of losing there lives if a major were to hit in the right place.Wilma was a clear sign of what category 1 winds can do to a heavily populated area as miami dade and broward counties.


Yeah,you don't see too many reminders of the hurricanes lately.Not as many blue roofs.Which of course is a good thing,but it is allowing hurricanes to get pushed back in to the back of poeple's minds.
Here is wind pattern graphic of Hurricane wilma from Hurrtrak.Great software a highly recommend it.



Here is a look at an enhanced advanced wind estamation from hurricane wilma.

SEE HERE
155. ryang
23 come to my blog!
I recorded a 81 mph wind gust with my vortex during hurricane wilma.

H23, that graphic seems inaccurate to me and they well overestimated surface winds in their forecasts.
Is your anemometer a handheld,H23?
Yes it is but you could also use it different ways.During wilma i had set up in my roof.

162. ryang
CB COME TO MY BLOG.
Areas like the Dry Tortugas saw cat3 conditions with wilma, actually very few areas felt cat3 conditions the worst of wilma actually managed to stay away from the most populated areas across south florida.On the other hand cat1 winds were felt in a very large area.

Some Locations that saw cat1 winds during wilma.

1.Miami
2.Palm Beach
3.Fort Lauderdale
4.Belle Glade
5.Boca Raton
6.Pompano Beach
7.Deerfield Beach
8.Delray Beach
9.Stuart
10.keys

Belle Glade probably had Cat2 conditions during the backside of the storm when the winds were coming off the water of the lake.
I'll be back later.
hi for the last time
167. ryang
Hey thunderstorm2.
Hurricane Wilma windfield at 10:30 Z...

Indeed very strong winds which managed to stay away from the most populated areas across south florida.

Windfield at 07:30 Z

which is lucky for the people who lived there
O DEAR GOD!!!!!!!!!
Indeed a tropical cyclone doesn't get more perfect the Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988 with 888MLB.Atleast across the atlantic basin.It had winds up to 184 mph (296 km/h).

Wasn't Wilma perfecter?
Posted By: LouisC at 7:21 PM GMT on January 17, 2007.
Does anyone else think it's odd that the most intense positive anomalies are concentrated almost exclusively over land masses in the Northern Hemisphere? Except for the equatorial Pacific, the rest of the oceans don't seem anywhere near as anomalous.


Why would it be odd? Water is a much better heat sink than land is. Land absorbs heat (shallowly) quickly, then gives it up again just as quickly. The deserts may swing 50 to 100 degrees difference between noon and pre-dawn.

The important lesson to learn this year, because I am not going to do this every year, is to follow the tropical heat transfers from the equatorial region to the Arctic region. You are lucky. I did a good detailed job of it in 2006 which required me following several dozen hurricanes from birth to "finish", and accumulating over 80,000 satellite pictures so I could tell the best story with the best examples.

Hurricane Ioke is now smashing the electrical grids in CONUS all winter. Some simple-minded fools would think that the hurricane is over when it is no longer a threat to navigation and the navy takes it down off their boards. Hurricane Ioke was followed off the screens north of Alaska, but the lakes of melted ice told the story what happened up there. 38,000 square miles of PERMANENT sea ice melted 10 feet thick. Do the math: a gram box of water requires 79 calories of heat to melt from ice to liquid -- 27,000,000 tons of TNT explosive heat energy was deposited in ice melting thermal storage battery. The equivilent heat is burning one 3,000-gallon tanker of gasoline every minute, 60 per hour, 24 hours per day for 170 days.

1st Law of Conservation of Energy: Energy is neither crreated nor destroyed but only changes form. In this case 59 degrees F heat rain (measured temps as it crossed Alaskan weather stations) melted the ice. That heat energy changed form to melt energy "latent heat of fusion", which was stored for winter as liquid phase water. Now it is freezing again and outputting that latent "heat" as zero degrees air expansion energy. As gases expand they cool.

The Beaufort Sea is ground zero for the North America and East Siberia temperature anomalies. First as warmth, then as chill factor. The torque of a rotating planet means that the ground-zero circular push is twisted eastwards. The weather anomalies in Europe have been from the Atlantic hurricane deposits and El Nino. You can see it plain as day on the Wunderground weather maps:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/CN/2xTemperature.html
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/EU/2xTemperature.html
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AS/2xTemperature.html

I explained that Hurricane Ioke would be ringing North America like a bell at least through February, so batten down, because the 27 megatons of energy you have been reckless playing with is going to bite your butt again and again before this hurricane is finally "over".

http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/IOKE_into_Arctic.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Arctic_Ice_Melt.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Mystery_Solved/Ice_Mystery_Solved.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/Bebinca_01.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/ioke_bebinca_compare.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_to_Alaska/Bebinca_to_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_into_Alaska//Bebinca_into_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/Shanshan_Tornadoes.html
http://h2-pv.us/1/temp_sep_06/IOKE_IR_Funktops.html

I moved the webhosting. Report any broken links. With 12,000 files, pictures, texts, animations and spreadsheets, it's easily possible that not everything got moved perfectly. There's over 50,000,000 bites and many hundreds of satpix on Ioke alone.
Overall structure with gilbert was truly amazing as it slammed into cozumel as a cat 5.But wilma is my all time favorite with that incredible pressure drop.



and the dreaded pinhole 2 nm wide eye
Ioke was awsome to.
Here pics of some canes...

that is an awesome set hurricane23 :)
edited slide show a bit.
nice H23
Hurricane Ioke is now smashing the electrical grids in CONUS all winter. Some simple-minded fools would think that the hurricane is over when it is no longer a threat to navigation and the navy takes it down off their boards.


LOL................................. Like, right.... LOL!!! rolling eyes
The Ice Storm of 2007 is now deadlier than the 1998 ice storm...

Icy Storm Blamed For 59 Deaths In 9 States

Last Edited: Wednesday, 17 Jan 2007, 5:46 PM EST
Created: Wednesday, 17 Jan 2007, 5:39 PM EST

SAN ANTONIO (AP) -- An icy storm blamed for at least 59 deaths in nine states spread snow and freezing rain across Texas all the way to the Mexican border Wednesday, closing the Alamo, glazing freeways and immobilizing communities unaccustomed to such cold.

Accumulations were light by many regions' standards -- the Dallas area topped out at 3 inches of snow -- but hundreds of airline flights were canceled, tens of thousands of electricity customers lost power and a 300-mile stretch of Interstate 10, a major east-west highway that cuts through the state, was closed overnight.

Marc and Courtney Unger, visiting San Antonio with their 3- and 7-year-old boys from Tallahassee, Fla., found most of their plans wrecked by the cold weather and closed attractions.

Instead of visiting the Alamo, the Children's Museum or Sea World, the boys amused themselves knocking icicles off signs and benches.

"We're very disappointed it didn't go those few extra degrees colder for snow," Unger said, laughing.

Across the country, storms since Friday have cut off what had been an unseasonably mild winter in many areas. Six deaths were blamed on the storm in Texas.

In Oklahoma, the ice storm was blamed for at least 23 deaths, most from auto accidents, and about 78,000 utility customers in eastern Oklahoma remained without power.

In the mountains north of Los Angeles, a sudden snowstorm brought traffic to a halt on busy Interstate 5. Snow mixed with hail also fell at lower elevations of northern Los Angeles County, leaving some neighborhoods with rare coatings of white.

California already had been suffering from an unusual cold snap that threatened many of its winter crops and wiped out a most of its citrus.

In Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, roads were largely empty Wednesday morning. Motorists unaccustomed to driving on ice took the day off after waking up to light snow, trees sagging with ice and icicle-draped cars.

Many schools closed for the day or opened late.

Freezing rain and sleet were reported in Laredo and other communities along the Mexican border.

Tree limbs laden with ice snapped and brought down electrical lines in the San Antonio area, where as many 41,000 customers lost power overnight.

More than 200 flights out of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, San Antonio and Houston were canceled as officials worked to de-ice runways.

About 50 motorists were stranded at a convention center in Ozona. The jailhouse lent blankets and pillows to the emergency shelter.

"They have air mattresses and cots for everybody -- and pizza and doughnuts," said Joe Stokhaug, at the shelter with his pregnant wife.

In addition to the fatalities in Oklahoma and Texas, the storm was blamed for nine deaths in Missouri, eight in Iowa, four each in New York and Michigan, three in Arkansas and one each in Maine and Indiana.

My thinking is, assuming that there arn't any major hurricanes making landfall later this year or massive severe weather outbreaks, winter storms will likely have been the worst severe weather this year:

What will be the main form of severe weather affecting the U.S. in 2007?


What part of the country will get the worst severe weather in 2007 (damage, deaths, etc; related to previous question)?
every conservative global warming denier is saying that this storm proves that global warming isn't real.
every conservative global warming denier is saying that this storm proves that global warming isn't real.

LOL... Have they ever wondered why it is called global warming and not U.S. warming or something like that?
StSimons~ The problem with that is, if it was a normal winter it would have snowed, not huge ,historic, destructive ice storm. If ice storms do become more common (interesting the last bad one being during a hot year), that does lead to the climate change lending to more intense & destructivre storms. Though in a way I hadn't considered.
Michael the kicker of a catch 22 wasn't even considered in your poll...HEAT


NWS
The U.S. Natural Hazard Statistics provide statistical information on fatalities, injuries and damages caused by weather related hazards. These statistics are compiled by the Office of Services and the National Climatic Data Center from information contained in Storm Data, a report comprising data from NWS forecast offices in the 50 states, Puerto Rico, Guam and the Virgin Islands.

The catch 22 is Heat though it has by far the most fatalities, it doesn't have as much damage, mainly in crops.
This is also the third massive winter/ice storm this winter:

Late Autumn 2006 North American Storm Complex (many different effects, including a giant ice storm)

December 29-31 Extreme Ice Storm South Central Nebraska (many incredible pictures)

The current ice and winter storm.
This just in:The GFS is forecasting a strong freeze for South Florida on the morning of the 25th.Nore in my blog later tonight.
I didn't include heat because I didn't really consider it to be severe weather (severe meaning caused by storms - extratropical, thunderstorms and tropical storms).
Hurricane23,

O.K. the pics are way too cool! How did you do that! great job! I would love to learn your secret if you care to share!
Have a great Wed. evening!
My thinking is, assuming that there arn't any major hurricanes making landfall later this year or massive severe weather outbreaks, winter storms will likely have been the worst severe weather this year:



What are the odds of neither of those happening?I'd think slimmer than the odds of them both happening.
My thinking is, assuming that there arn't any major hurricanes making landfall later this year or massive severe weather outbreaks, winter storms will likely have been the worst severe weather this year:



What are the odds of neither of those occuring,I'd think worse than the odds of them both hapenning
As some one who has seen severe drought, heat & fires, they don't call it severe for nothing... Consider 2006, one heat wave...

The 2006 North American heat wave spread throughout most of the United States and Canada beginning on July 15, 2006, killing at least 225 people.

NOAA highlightsAccording to Dr. Kalkstein, "During the average summer in the United States there are at least 1,500 excess deaths attributed to heat. If deaths by heart attacks, strokes or respiratory illness are above normal during a heat wave, we consider it a heat related death, the medical examiner would not."

It's just a lotta people & climate change, isn't gonna help those #'s go down.
President George W. Bush is about to announce a significant change in his administration's stance toward global warming, according to a British newspaper citing British government officials.
I dont by what the GFS is calling for and if it indeed pans out the freezeing temps will stay far away from extreme south florida.
Forget about the snow in Texas. Snow in LA county today. No snow here where I live. A thunderstorm however. I saw a rare tripple rainbow for a very short period of time.
This is for 06z,about 6 hours before low temps are normally recorded,and it shows low 30s already far south of Lake O.Link
An interesting Newsweek article:

Link
the snow in Texas

It was ice. Very little snow
There was snow in Central Texas.I think so, anyway.
snow in Central Texas

There was some snow but not alot. It fell on top of a layer of ice.
Ok then.I'll take your word for it.I'm no expert on the weather in Texas.
Picture of West Los Angeles today. First time it snowed since 1948

Cool lighting
You know, 2 weeks ago,on te 384h chart, the GFS was forecasting snow for LA and Taz and I talked about how stupid a forecast it was.I guess it's right once in a while that far out.Goodnight,enjoy the snow lightning10.
Stupid is right... at one point, the GFS had a low of around -20 here (this was a couple weeks ago for the past few days)... and almost everywhere else around the eastern half of the country...
well,South Florida should watch out in 384h.The GFS has a massive severe weather outbreak there.It's forecasting winds to be:
40 knots at 850mb
60 knots at 700mb
80 knots at 500mb
and 110 knots at 300mb

If you keep track of the weather in South Florida, you know just how rare winds like that are.For real this time, goodnight
It didnt snow in my area. That band of moisture took its sweat time to get to my area. I am a good 30 miles inland. When it first hit the coast it was around 8 AM. When it made it to my area it was near 12 PM. Very slow moving batch of moisture. I did get some hail. A thundershower as well after the band of rain passed. A saw a tripel rainbow around 3 PM.
Triple rainbow:) Crazy all the cold in CA. Sorry about those crops. We are sure due for a good harvest in FL this year.

According to the GFS 2 weeks ago we should be just done with our picking frenzy & it may reach 80 tommarrow. There's kinda a saying, anything much beyond 144hrs on the gfs is for entertainment purposes only. You can stand by those long term forecasts, not stopping ya, but they will make you wrong way more than right.
No real cold air in sight for south florida...

Look for a warm day today with highs 82-84 and this weekend looks to be on the warm side also.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
845 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ICE STORM WARNING AND FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT.&&




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
PRECIP DIMINISHING RAPIDLY OVER MTNS SO WILL CANCEL ADVISROY
THERE. DEW POINTS REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING AND WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING OVER NE
GA...UPSTATE SC INTO NC PIEDMONT. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ACCUMULATE SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WARNING AS
IS FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS TO PROVIDE MORE PRECISE LOCATION THIS FALL

cedit NOAA

Interesting is, they have been doing this for years in Brevard County. Probibly because it is a very long & narrow county. It's also common for them to say street names & landmarks such as fish camps, jails & etc.

some news from the meeting

"There is a major demographic shift and continual movement to the coastal areas and therein lies our concern: that many people who have had no experience with hurricanes or tropical storms are finding themselves in (this) arena," Proenza said on the sidelines of the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting.
A further concern was that complacency could be setting in after last year's mild hurricane season, he said.

"We've got to make sure that people are ready, that they understand what we are talking about, they understand what their responsibilities are," Proenza said.

"They have got to have readiness plans in place to protect themselves, their families, their businesses," he added.

He also said forecasters needed to work on better predicting the intensity of storms to assist local authorities with disaster management plans.

"We need to work on forecasting intensity changes in the storm. Not just the tracking -- we need to determine whether a storm is going to be intensifying or weakening," he said.
AMS ENSO discussion

There are indications that it is fading fast. There are model simulations which are pointing to that," said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environment Prediction, which is part of the US government's National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

He said there was no consensus on this yet and that there was much ongoing discussion among scientists.

"I think we need another month of model simulations before we can say that this thing will really decrease as rapidly as the current models are now saying, or whether this will extend into the spring as was originally forecast," he told Reuters on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Antonio, Texas.
The new tornado rating system is to begin Feb 1st.
i read an article on the EF Scale a while back and i think its a good idea
Me too, I thought they started it, then realized they hadn't. Good to know when it's going in effect.
New NOAA weather toy announced, though it's not working at the moment.
Other things like a ban on something normally doesn't have a effect date so you don't know when the ban is going to take effect
139
NOUS42 KNHC 181700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST THU 18 JAN 2007
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JAN 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....06-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NOAA G-IV FLIGHT
A. TRACK 54, 45.40 N 166.0 W, 20/0000Z
B. NOAA9 01WSC TRACK54
C. 19/1930Z
D. 17 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK
E. 41,000-45,000 FT/ 20/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
Wow its been a while since ive seen that...

Thankfully there still a long way to go before cane season arrives again across the atlantic basin.
many people who have had no experience with hurricanes or tropical storms are finding themselves in (this) arena[...]

What about Europe for a change? Hurricane Kyrill is blowing 180kph winds in Germany, with heavy rain.
Here in Belgium, we have 'only' 120kph winds, yet several people were killed by uprooted trees and flying debris. 14C (57F) tonight, another record high 'low' for January.
Forecast says next week we'll lose 20C in 48hrs. Millions of birds will die and buds and flowers will freeze. Well, at least we'll finally have some winter.
anyone on?
Hi kris im on waiting for people to come on
Whats going on guys?Iam going to be on for another 5-10 minutes cause i got to pick up my wife at work.
not much H23,hi TS2
This blog seems to 'heat up' near the evening period EST time
People get off of work and school.
TS2, did you see my list of Florida's top ten hurricanes?It was a page or two back near the top.
Two pages
unless the people at work are doing overtime.
Yes i did see your list and i would agree with the hurricane you said
yeah,or extra homework.Or maybe people just lose interest when it's not hurricane season.
Yeah it's going to be a lot buisier when it is HS
did you keep track then?
I kept track of anything Tropical related then
No I meant of WU.I lurked all season,then joined in December.
Oh sorry,Yeah i was looking at all the comments people were making then i decided to join
Have you seen my El Nino blog?
I wonder how many non-members are reading our conversation now.
Yes i have and its brilliant
emmmmmm???? i Wonder
Yes i have and its brilliant

Was that a joke?LOL
Im not that nasty
I wonder how many non-members are reading our conversation now..er..1,..LOL!
Your blog is good,but you left out the several cities on the SE coast of FL that broke record high low temps a few days ago.
I wonder how many non-members are reading our conversation now..er..1,..LOL!


I don't get it.
and hi
We know.
Have you got anymore ideas for another blog i could put up
Why not IM each other..or WU mail?..or Chat link..easier than here..faster too.
Have you got anymore ideas for another blog i could put up


I don't know.I just meant that they would be a good addition.
Im going back to the Rest-position.Lazy boy back 3/4s..and Oprah!..LOL!
I'm not really one to talk anyway,TS2.I update my blog on average about once per week.
Have you got anymore ideas for another blog i could put up


I don't know.I just meant that they would be a good addition.


I know but im stuck for ideas that would be good enough for a blog

I know but im stuck for ideas that would be good enough for a blog


Since when does a person need good ideas for a blog entry on WU?look at the blog list and read the titles.LOL
Anyway,I'm thinking of doing some sort of research project for a blog,but it needs to require minimal effort and make me look smarter than I really am.
I'm thinking of doing something on EWRC in landfalling hurricanes.Maybe have it up by next week.
maybe hurricane Jeanne?
know but im stuck for ideas that would be good enough for a blog


Since when does a person need good ideas for a blog entry on WU?look at the blog list and read the titles.LOL


Well true,look at some of the blogs like NFL on WU
Cool!That's how you get loops on to here.I wasn't sure if it would work.I'd seen others do it,I wasn't sure how though.
I'll remove it now,it's slowing down the page.
You were slowing down my PC
It's actually pretty hard to find a weather related blog on here.It's become more of a social outlet than anything weather-related.Not exactly the original intention of the site creators I'm sure.
sorry,I removed it.
I just counted.There are 86 non-weather related blogs.
I am so happy about how they are going to change the way they give out warnings. I cant tell you how many times I have been under a wind advisory or wind warning and there isnt the slightest breeze.
two of those are about that writer who died,though.
well,prepare to be disappointed,Lightning10.Those modifications are for severe thunderstorms,tornadoes,flash flooding and marine hazards only.
Four INVESTS

Indian Ocean
92B.INVEST

Southern Hem.
95S.INVEST
94S.INVEST
93P.INVEST

And how do you upload loops anyway? ive never got how to do it and i've tried about 10 dozen times
Not even the 'inland hurricane advisories' will be modified.
Just like still images aparrently.It has to be a GIF or other image file, though.
Thanks
That WP invest died fast.

One note on posting the loops, when you click on properties, note the size. Dr Masters put a limit of 200000 bytes on it, for his blog. If it's over that link it. Like the MIMIC loops.
ill be back in 15 mins
ok if anyones still on im back
I know this is a tropical weather blog but is there anyone on here doing work with super cells and tornados. I live in a tornado prone area here in Southern Ontario and would like to find something with regards to this subject in a blog form.

Thanks guys.
three years is not a long time and hi CB
I'm still on,but not for long.
be back later
Please don't CB it will take forever
after that we have to educate our kids and grandkids on the subject or face extinction!

Yeah educate our kids and grandkids on how to deal with the situation and also to make sure they don't do the same stupid retarded thing we're doing too often. or as you said We are DOOMED!!!
By the way, I posted something in my blog about the recent extreme storms, including a couple polls (read about the past events before answering them, especially the second).
Doomed? A little extreme... even with CO2 levels 20 times higher than today in the past, the earth didn't turn into another Venus... pretty much what happens is that the entire earth gets a tropical climate.
Well thats a fair point
Doomed? A little extreme... even with CO2 levels 20 times higher than today in the past, the earth didn't turn into another Venus... pretty much what happens is that the entire earth gets a tropical climate.


I agree.Even if bad things start to happen,the human race will adapt.
And besides,lets face it.Anyone speaking here will be dead before any apocalyptic things start to happen,if they do at all.
STL,I voted 'natural patterns' to the first question and 'no' to the second.
Doomed? A little extreme... even with CO2 levels 20 times higher than today in the past, the earth didn't turn into another Venus... pretty much what happens is that the entire earth gets a tropical climate.


In theory,wouldn't extratropical storms become weaker due to less baroclinic support?
guess your right we can survive on a lesser Venus envirionment! Perhaps, a Mars envirionment will suffice!


I think what he meant was:Life will go on.
Who voted for Bad luck on the first Poll
I guess your right we can survive on a lesser Venus envirionment! Perhaps, a Mars envirionment will suffice!


I think you've watched "The Day After Tomorrow"one too many times.



Never seen it! I may have to watch that one!


Suuuure
Yall havent a clue here as to WTF your talkng about.Just what are yall ranting about?...Cant yall hang out in yer own blogs.Yall embarrassing the Docs House with the nonsense.
Please...its like watching paint dry...
Everybody has to have seen "The Day After Tomorrow" at least once
Who voted for Bad luck on the first Poll

LOL... I even added "Weather Manipulation" as a choice, as some people think that the Gov't or somebody else is manipulating the weather... rolling eyes
and id have to say that the movie is crap
The Day After Tomorrow is alarmist nonsense... anybody should know that what happened in it can't really happen in a few days...
And if the things do happen in a few days then thats bad luck
The Day After Tomorrow is alarmist nonsense... anybody should know that what happened in it can't really happen in a few days...


I do...does CB?Anyway,I'll be back later.
MichaelSTL is of the right opinion..as its only a Fool who believes he could control Weather..in any form or Fashion.Let alone on a Global or Continental scale.With Tubes..or Cloud seeding or Whatever.The forces involved dwarf man..in every way.Period.But the Overall cause & effect of mans burning of Fossil fuels and Cumlative effects over time.Well...thats a effects caused by civilaztion.Not a concerted organised method of weather manipulation.In other words.We messed up.We seeing the effects.What can WE do to delay or offset the effects.That is where the Grey matter..matters.Just my op.....
When I watch a movie like that, I do it for entertainment, not for factual information (that is, they are fiction and should not be considered to be respresentative of what may actually happen, although some people likely take it as fact).
Zactly..well put Michael..
318. 882MB
Hey everybody, I have been seeing the past few runs of the GFS and the new one 18UTC which shows sometime around 300 hours and on a very stormy weather pattern for FLORIDA. It has been showing this the past few days and there are also talking about it on ACCUWEATHER.COM!
I comprehend your a Nut..Period.Thats a direct Observation from a Certified trained Observer..LOL!
CB Do you have an answer for everything??!!
Posted By: Patrap at 5:03 PM CST on January 18, 2007.

I comprehend your a Nut..Period.Thats a direct Observation from a Certified trained Observer..LOL!


ROFLMBO
This is from the EastCoastWeather blog:

The stations that average 5-20 inches saw a long term decrease in yearly snowfall, while the middle of the road stations remained steady with snowfall. The stations that average 80 inches or more a year increased in precipitation about the same rate the low snowfall stations decreased.

The author's conclusion about this was that this was to be expected in a climate modified world, as the low snow stations are likely to be in the southern extent of the snow belt, which warming would negatively impact snow accumulation. The High snow stations likewise are mostly in colder areas, where warmer temperatures have little effect on the precipitation type, but increased moisture content of the warmer air would allow for increased snowfall.


This fits with what has been happening here, given that the average high on the coldest days of the year is 37 and low 21; this means that it has to be colder than normal (for the high; the low could still be above normal, such as 32/25) in order for it to snow, or it has to only snow at night, which of course then melts the next day if temperatures are near normal.
Tunnel Test gone Bad..Cbs fault!
I'm away,stay safe everyone and here is a word of advice for Cyclonebuster "Keep your mouth shut!!"
Actually that was Tsar Bomba, the worlds largest Hydrogen Fusion Weapon ever air-dropped..period.
I miss the Cold War..things were clearer then..Sigh
Dude.Why repeat my posts.Dont do that.We all can see it..LOL
WTF you crying for..is that what Bwaaa! means?..Im lost ..but then again..Its you posting.
Sounds and looks like a Gorilla Contraction..
When you refer to THEY, whos They?...
This is a good graph of how temperature affects snowfall here - temperature increases, snowfall decreases:



Notice how snowfall was increasing as temperatures decreased from ~1960 to 1980, then decreased as temperatures started rising (I am sure that global warming is the reason for the recent rise in temperatures). The trend in precipitation closely follows temperatures; warmer usually means wetter. Also, this only goes up through 2004; if it included 2005 and 2006, the decreasing snowfall would become even more apparant:

2005 = 14.8 inches
2006 = 11.1 inches
2007 = trace (so far)
I aint skeered..LOL!
Hell I slept on Nukes before on a US Warship...Was warm and cozy berth.Didnt seem to menacing to me.
Hey everybody, I have been seeing the past few runs of the GFS and the new one 18UTC which shows sometime around 300 hours and on a very stormy weather pattern for FLORIDA. It has been showing this the past few days and there are also talking about it on ACCUWEATHER.COM


I've been talking about that too.
Europe is having some freakish weather lately. Some highlights~

By DANICA KIRKA and RAPHAEL G. SATTER, Associated Press Writers
9 minutes ago



LONDON - Hurricane-force winds and heavy downpours hammered northern Europe on Thursday, killing 27 people and disrupting travel for tens of thousands including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, whose plane circled for 15 minutes before landing amid winds gusting to 77 mph.

ADVERTISEMENT

The storms were among the fiercest in years, ripping off part of the roof at Lord's Cricket Ground in London, toppling a crane in the Netherlands and upending trucks on Europe's busiest highway.

By evening, weather-related accidents had killed 27 people, including a 2-year-old boy hit by falling brick from a toppled wall in London.

German meteorologists recorded gusts up to 118 mph, forcing dozens of flight cancelations, shutting schools and prompting the national railroad to suspend services across a swath of the country.

"We are still at a standstill nationwide," with only a few trains running, Hans-Georg Zimmermann, the spokesman of the national railroad, Deutsche Bahn, told n-tv television.

Hartmut Mehdorn, chief executive of Deutsche Bahn, said: "We have never yet had such a situation in Germany."

In London, harried commuters struggled through road closures caused by falling debris blown from glass-paneled office buildings and medieval churches. The city's slender Millennium Bridge was closed after the suspension structure began swaying dangerously in the wind.

Rail stations across London also were closed, and the evening commute melted into chaos.

Traffic on the M-25 around London, the busiest highway in Europe, was backed up for miles after three trucks were knocked over by a single gust of wind at around 1 p.m.

Traffic accidents accounted for many of the fatalities. Ten deaths were reported in the United Kingdom while seven died in Germany; four in the Netherlands, three in the Czech Republic, two in Belgium and one in France.

In Amsterdam, bicyclists who ventured out despite warnings from the fire department were blown over or, in some cases, blown backward.

In Utrecht, the Netherlands, a construction crane toppled onto a university building, crumpling the roof and injuring six people.

Heathrow Airport, Europe's largest, canceled 280 flights. Other major airports including Frankfurt, Munich, Amsterdam and Vienna reported delays and cancellations

In Ireland and Latvia, winds kept rescue crews from helping other ships damaged or missing after storms earlier this week. Seven fishermen from Ireland, Poland and Ukraine are missing and presumed dead off the Irish coast, while Latvian rescuers were unable to attempt to salvage a cargo ship that ran aground Tuesday off the Baltic port of Ventspils and has been leaking oil.

A ship burst loose from its moorings near Rotterdam and smashed an oil pipeline, leaking about 10,000 barrels of oil. The stench reached The Hague, 20 miles away.

Austria's national weather service said storm winds could reach 105 mph at higher altitudes in the Alps, and officials cautioned skiers and snowboarders to get off the mountains and seek shelter well before nightfall.
Anyone on?
If not,I'm off to play SW Battlefront
Come on,I know you're out there.
Ok ,I'm leaving in 3...
Ok,I'll be back later on tonight.
HEY THIS IA KC
IS**
SORRY I DIDN'T LISTEN TO YOUR ADMIN NOTICE!! sorry!
sorry, my friend was on here messing with this... think we might get some snow in southern indiana!!

matt
later all
SORRY I DIDN'T LISTEN TO YOUR ADMIN NOTICE!! sorry!


If you were talking to me...I was joking with the countdown.
Has anyone taken the time to figure out whether this might be due to an increase in the output of the sun? Hasn't there been global warm events much larger than this in the prehistoric past( before humans that is!!!)?
Has anyone taken the time to figure out whether this might be due to an increase in the output of the sun? Hasn't there been global warm events much larger than this in the prehistoric past( before humans that is!!!)?


Well,yes and there are some theories(and some evidence to support them) that sunspots may be involved,but you try to take that to any serious meteorlogical meeting on global warming, and you'll get laughed out of the room.
You there?
The theory was,if I remember correctly, that in a period of increased sunspots the earth was warmer and in a period of decreased sunspots it was colder.This was supported by the fact that a dramatic decrease in sunspots was observed during the Little Ice Age.
goodnight
Your gonna need a BiggerTube!..
My worst post about licorice..would be admired above your Best Tube story..anyday!..LOL!
This is the Way we Live..New Orleans Saints No. 1 on da Field!..
ummm...pat...now i challenge you..i want to see your worst licorice post.....oh..and i want it utubed....LOL
Only a Fool would Challenge a Jarhead..a New Orleanian Jarhead.So...there ya are!
This aint College.Plus..we on a Mission from God!
sill no licorice....that first one was good.....for the first 30 seconds..then it was the same oveer and over..still..maybe the best superbowl song since mcmahon and the bears
Later.Im going back to Sex..er sleep..er resting..LOL!
PAtrap,do you ever post anything weather related?I mean,EVER?
Lighten up kris. 'trap offers keen practical insights in season.
Remember:
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes.
That way, when you criticize them, you will be a mile away, and you will have their shoes.
Lighten up kris. 'trap offers keen practical insights in season.
Remember:
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes.
That way, when you criticize them, you will be a mile away, and you will have their shoes.


I geuss your right.and LOL
Old Sol is really pumping here in Central Florida today. I dare any cold air to try coming here. I triple-dog dare it.
sorry Patrap
Kumbaya!
Kumbaya!


this is getting good.LOL
But on to weather, it's looking like a couple snowstorms for the NE the next two weeks.
I'm still waiting with interest to see how the weather shapes up for the Boston Marathon in mid April. Typically they get either a warm (bad) tailwind (good) or a cool (good) headwind (bad). El Nino favors warm. Cool (not freezing or snow) & little or a cross wind would be great.
30 Years ago today it snowed in Miami, FL

Check out this vintage clip:Miami Snowfall
Kris, you bring up interesting questions on the sun. & yes the little ice age seems to have been caused by a lack of solar activity.

But we aren't really experencing a big increase in solar activity right now...It was worse in the '60's

click to make bigger
more NASA graphics

Also as discussed in the last blog~ if it was inceased solar output the upper reaches & the surface would be warming at the same rate, which isn't the case.

Lets check out some ice core data back 400000 years ~how much CO2 is present to what the temp is...& notice the CO2 line going straight up in the end, way higher then in the last 400000 years. This looks like it may not be a fun experiment.

link

This was kind of funny, notice his graph & his research ends in 1991, he even notes some of his referance links don't contain all facts. In '91 he is saying the global warming is due to the sun & now the cooling trend has already begun, since we're cycling down. Notice it hasn't been updated (on the very bottom) since 1997, lol '98 was pretty warm. I'm suprised it was on the 1st page on a google search, I guess alot of people are using this really out of date info.
Thanks skye,but Rmblerbob brought it up.Thanks for checking it out.
You know CB, you'd be a good actor for a role as a bumbling villain who doesn't stop talking in a movie."Now I will destroy the world"Bwahaha!!!
Sorry man but what we are doing to this planet is really stupid! The bible is correct! Man is silly!


I'm just wondering...what's with all the awkward language and the Bwhaha's?
Is that the KJV?'Silly' doesn't seem like a word you'd find in the Bible.
new blog's up
We can't check solar output more than to just a few years ago so how do we know what solar output is? I don't mean just solar flare activity but the actual solar total output. It seems to me it would take a miniscule percentage change in total solar output to change our climate. There have been periods in earth's history (not just to ice core data times!) but to prehistoric times as well. At some point, for instance, a large percentage of the North American continent was covered by ocean. Was that caused by global warming? Was it caused by the activity of dinosaurs (methane maybe???)? Could the same process be happening now? Lets not just look at the last century (unfortunately we only have temp data for that period of time) or even 400,000 years but look at the whole historic picture and not be so short sighted (as we tend to be as humans who live less than a century (a VERY short time in an earth history perspective) !