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The Big Thompson Disaster: Reverberations of a Flash Flood, 40 Years Later

By: Bob Henson 10:20 PM GMT on July 29, 2016

What began as a celebratory Saturday in the mountains ended in tragedy 40 years ago this weekend, when a catastrophic flash flood ripped through the narrow Big Thompson Canyon of Colorado’s Front Range. A total of 144 people were killed on that Saturday evening, July 31, 1976--the eve of the 100th anniversary of Colorado’s statehood. On just about any summer weekend, the canyons northwest of Denver are packed with vacationers and day-trippers. With the state’s centennial falling on this particular weekend, the mood was especially festive, and the weather seemed no more threatening than on many other summer days. Forecasts through the day called for a 40% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, but there was no particular concern about flood risk. Only a few hours later, critical gaps in weather data, communication, and public awareness had teamed up with a slow-moving deluge to create a true disaster--one that’s had a noteworthy influence on how we deal with flash floods today.


Figure 1. The irony of tragedy: a structure labeled “DREAMLAND” torn apart by the Big Thompson Canyon flood on July 31, 1976. Image credit: USGS.

Working in a data vacuum
The mountains of the U.S. West are just as prone to flash flooding as they were in 1976. However, there has been phenomenal progress in the ability to foresee, monitor, and warn people about the risks. Looking back from the vantage point of our current data-saturated world, it is astonishing how little information was available to forecasters on that fateful day. Routine satellite observations were in their infancy, and the black-and-white images that came in every 30 minutes were crude by today’s standards (see Figure 2). On the ground, there were no official weather stations or stream gauges reporting from anywhere in the Big Thompson Canyon, which starts near Rocky Mountain National Park and rolls about 25 miles eastward and downward, ending near the city of Loveland.


Figure 2. Left: A 7:30 PM CDT radar image of the flood-producing thunderstorm complex on July 31, 1976, in the Big Thompson Canyon (upper left of image), which was located near the outer edge of the radar range. Right: Satellite imagery from 7:00 PM CDT provided little detail on the Big Thompson storm, part of an arc of intense thunderstorms stretching from north-central Colorado (point A) to southeast Kansas (point C). Image credit: NOAA.

Most crucially, there was only a smattering of radar data for local forecasters to draw on. Just six years earlier, in 1970, northeast Colorado had obtained its first National Weather Service weather radar. This “conventional” unit preceded the NEXRAD Doppler network of the 1990s. The radar was located at Limon, more than 100 miles southeast of the Big Thompson Canyon, which meant the canyon fell toward the outer edge of the radar’s useful range. There were other problems as well. During this pre-Internet era, forecasters based in Denver had no way to directly view the radar observations being gathered at Limon. Instead, standard practice was for black-and-white images to be transmitted from Limon to Denver via facsimile, or “fax”. On July 30, the fax transmitter at Limon broke, meaning that no images could be transmitted to Denver until repairs could be made. This didn’t happen until August 1. As a result, the radar technician working on July 31 had to make phone calls to an NWS forecaster in Denver and summarize what he was seeing on radar--a cumbersome process at best.


Figure 3. A massive thunderstorm complex builds over the upper reaches of the Big Thompson Canyon on the late afternoon of July 31, 1976. Image credit: NOAA


The cold truth about warm rain
The gaping observational holes of 1976 were accompanied by a limited understanding of the meteorology that drives flash floods in the mountainous West. We now know that the heaviest rainfall comes from “warm rain” processes, when the atmosphere is so unusually warm and moist that much of a storm lies below the freezing level (a hard thing to achieve in this high-altitude region). The warm-rain process can yield radar returns that are misleadingly low for the amount of rain actually being produced. The official NOAA report on the event notes that NWS staff were puzzled by a seeming contradiction: the storms extended upward to an impressive 62,000 feet, but the strongest radar returns were surprisingly weak (only about 30 dbZ). We don’t know exactly how much warm-rain processes may have boosted the rain totals, but the available data suggests there was at least some impact. If a higher-resolution radar had been available and located closer to the canyon, and if the warm-rain process had been recognized at the time, forecasters might have picked up on the gravity of the threat. As it happened, the storms were addressed with a fairly routine severe thunderstorm warning and a cursory reference to potential flooding.

Unbeknownst to virtually everyone outside the canyon, torrential rain was falling at the time, with amounts topping 12” in less than five hours toward the western (higher) end of the canyon. Before long, an enormous pulse of high water cascaded down the canyon, pushing 10-foot-wide boulders ahead of it. The flood wave demolished more than 570 structures and hundreds of vehicles--as well as much of U.S. Highway 34, the primary route into and out of the canyon for some 1800 full- and part-time residents and hundreds of visitors that night. Many tried in vain to escape in their vehicles, and a highway patrolman who drove into the canyon to investigate was among those killed. Some of the worst damage occurred near the downstream end of the canyon, where relatively little rain fell. Based on the 139 bodies recovered from the flood (several others were never found), the vast majority of victims were killed by traumatic injury, not by drowning. With communication tools so limited by today’s standards, it took many hours for the full scope of the tragedy to become evident. Not until the next day did most Coloradans find out anything about the Big Thompson disaster.

While it was shocking in its own right, the Big Thompson flood came amid a decade of major flash flood disasters. More than 200 people died in Rapid City, South Dakota, on June 9-10, 1972. A valley in West Virginia was devastated by the breach of a mine-tailings dam at Buffalo Creek on February 26, 1972, which took 125 lives (see my related post from this year). And the failure of six dams in heavy rain led to 84 deaths in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on July 19-20, 1977. These disasters--on top of more than 300 deaths in the 1974 Super Outbreak of tornadoes--helped galvanize the world of weather research and policy, serving as motivation for the massive NWS modernization efforts of the 1990s.


Figure 4. Signs like these became a fixture in Colorado’s steep canyons following the Big Thompson Flood. Image credit: Courtesy Colorado State University Water Center.


The Big Thompson flood also played a major role in bringing social science into meteorology. Eve Gruntfest, then a graduate student at the University of Colorado Boulder, ended up studying individual and institutional responses to the flood for her master’s thesis. Gruntfest concluded that many victims in the Big Thompson might have survived had they scrambled up the hillside just a few feet rather than fruitlessly staying in their vehicles. “Before that research, people didn’t realize that you can’t ‘out-drive’ a flash flood,” Gruntfest said. Her findings led to “CLIMB TO SAFETY” signs that were deployed across the state’s canyons (see Figure 4). Gruntfest later founded the landmark WAS*IS program (Weather and Society Integrated Studies). Based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, WAS*IS brought together hundreds of meteorologists and social scientists for mutual learning and brainstorming and to help integrate social science into meteorological research and practice.

Big Thompson, take two: What went better this time
Recurrence intervals--the amount of time one would expect to elapse between floods of a given magnitude--are a risky thing to calculate. One estimate, based on geological evidence, concluded that the streamflow in the Big Thompson Canyon in 1976 was on the order of a 10,000-year event. Incredibly, another catastrophic flood struck just 37 years later, in early September 2013, when another hydrologic disaster struck a much larger swath of the Colorado Front Range. Stretching over several days, and including both flash-flood and river-flood elements, the waters of 2013 inflicted more than $1 billion in damage, with more than 350 homes demolished and almost 500 miles of roadway damaged or destroyed—including much of U.S. Highway 34 through the Big Thompson. The peak water volume flowing through the canyon was somewhat lower than in 1976, but the flood crest was sustained over a much longer period, with multiple peaks. “I never thought I would ever see cars wrapped around trees again, and certainly not in the Big Thompson Canyon,” Gruntfest told me.


Figure 5. Vehicles lie upended in a swollen Coal Creek in Lafayette, CO, during the 2013 floods that struck large parts of Colorado. Credit: Will Von Dauster, NOAA.


Figure 6. A county road in Berthoud, CO, washed away by the September 2013 Colorado Front Range floods. Credit: Lornay Hansen/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES).

For all the psychic and physical damage it inflicted, Colorado’s flooding of 2013 was far less deadly than the Big Thompson event of 1976, with just eight deaths directly attributable to the floods. We can chalk up the much-reduced death toll to a range of factors. Despite inconsistencies in timing and location, a number of high-resolution model runs suggested more than a day in advance that torrential rains of up to 8 inches could strike parts of northeast Colorado. The NWS stressed the potential for heavy rain in local outlooks issued a day in advance. Years of coordination among federal, state, and local agencies had already led to greatly improved awareness of the flash flood risk in Colorado’s canyons. The event itself was tracked far more closely than the 1976 storms, thanks to modern radar and satellites: a total of 78 flash flood warnings were issued by NWS offices in Denver and Pueblo.

Once the event was under way, much-improved lines of communication allowed for quick road closures and other rapid responses that helped keep many thousands of residents out of harm’s way. Cellphones, websites, and social media also helped people to obtain a wealth of information on the emerging floods (although cellphone coverage remains limited in many canyons). As with tornado warnings, flash flood warnings are now transmitted directly to newer cellphones as audio and text alarms through the Wireless Emergency Alert system, provided that the phone’s owner has not opted out of this feature. More progress is on the way: for example, NOAA’s experimental Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrography Project (FLASH), based at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, is using high-resolution rainfall data to produce flood forecasts every five minutes with a resolution of just one kilometer (0.6 mile). FLASH is one example of a new generation of tools that are likely to revolutionize severe weather warnings in the 2020s and beyond. And starting late this year, the long-awaited GOES-R satellite debut will deliver a huge advance in the tempo and resolution of U.S. imagery available for forecasters.

These advances and many others should make us grateful, yet never complacent. In 2004, it was easy to think that the United States might never again see a hurricane kill many hundreds of citizens. Just a year later, Hurricane Katrina proved that assumption horribly wrong. In 2010, one might have thought that the days of a single tornado killing more than 100 people, or an outbreak killing several hundred, were long gone--and then we saw the Super Outbreak of April 2011 and the horrific Joplin tornado of May 2011. Likewise, a flash flood striking in the wrong place at the wrong time could still wreak a catastrophic toll. On an individual level, anyone who drives around a barrier and into high water during a flash flood is taking what could be a deadly personal risk. More than 100 of the deaths in the Big Thompson canyon were vehicle-related. Doing what we can to spread awareness of water’s deadly power would be a fitting tribute to those whose lives were lost in the Big Thompson Canyon.

We'll have an update on Saturday afternoon on the two systems in the tropical Atlantic that have some potential for development over the next few days, Invest 96L and Invest 97L. See also this morning's post from Jeff Masters on the twin systems.

Bob Henson

More background:
Big Thompson Canyon Flash Flood of July 31-August 1, 1976 (NOAA Natural Disaster Survey Report, October 1976)
The Record Front Range and Eastern Colorado Floods of September 11-17, 2013 (NWS Service Assessment, June 2014)
A Deadly Flood That Helped Improve Weather Forecasting [NOAA web feature, July 29, 2016]


Figure 7. Nezette Rydell, meteorologist in charge at the NWS Denver/Boulder office, addresses a gathering held near Loveland, CO, on Friday, July 29, 2016, in honor of the 40th anniversary of the Big Thompson Flood of 1976. Organized by NOAA and the U.S. Geological Service, the event was hosted by the Sylvan Dale Guest Ranch, located at the base of the canyon. Ranch co-owner Susan Jessup, who was an eyewitness to both the 1976 and 2013 floods, also spoke, along with experts and policymakers from the State of Colorado, UCAR, USGS, and Larimer County, CO. I delivered opening remarks and introduced speakers. Image credit: Bob Henson.


Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 486. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I think a few on the blog favored south of the islands a while ago. Seems to be in fruition. Good call.
Ok...Leaving for Punta Cana today. Does it look like this mess will be south of us?
97L



Quoting 473. Gearsts:


Despite its fast motion, it looks to developing nicely.
Africa flings a cloudy swarm
Spun across the blue Atlantic
Where winds whip up a mighty storm
And send the blog into a panic.
Quoting 504. Climate175:

Despite its fast motion, it looks to developing nicely.


looks like some turning is evident on the east side where the convection has fired.
ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.26 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 1.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.1% 9.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6%
Logistic: 3.8% 18.0% 7.1% 2.7% 0.0% 7.7% 25.8%
Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 11.9% 5.8% 3.7% 0.0% 2.6% 14.1%

97L is really starting too get that look it looks like 97L could go in too RI mode soon
509. IDTH
Quoting 503. Grothar:

97L





Emily 2011

Quoting 478. CaribBoy:



Maybe something very interesting if current organization trend continous and IF it can gain a little bit more lattitude.

We've just had a really nice downpour, the current weather is very typical of an approaching strong disturbance !
Have to say that the wind and dry air pushing in front of 97L are making for a great laundry day! I am happy to see the latest runs showing it going more south of the VI than previous runs did. We always need rain, but just as happy to get that in smaller doses.
I have learned quite a bit lurking on this blog over the years. I want to thank all of you who actually take the time to explain the maps and what they mean.
Hoping for a year of big, beautiful, fish storms! I do not wish landfall of any storm on anyone.
12z GFS looks a little suspect in that it strengthens 97L over the Yucatan, which the model has an odd tendency to do sometimes. Shows a very favorable environment in the southern Gulf though, hence the higher intensity this run.

TS in the Northern BoC.
97L looks to be consolidating at 55w or thereafter. Convection seems to be circulating some.
Quoting 507. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.26 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 1.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 137.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.1% 9.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6%
Logistic: 3.8% 18.0% 7.1% 2.7% 0.0% 7.7% 25.8%
Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 11.9% 5.8% 3.7% 0.0% 2.6% 14.1%




Hmmm... If I get this right, according to these models it means there's a weak probability of RI, although it's not negligible.
Quoting 512. MAweatherboy1:

12z GFS looks a little suspect in that it strengthens 97L over the Yucatan, which the model has an odd tendency to do sometimes. Shows a very favorable environment in the southern Gulf though, hence the higher intensity this run.


A system can actually strengthen over the Yucatan IF it goes over the flat part.
Quoting 509. IDTH:


Emily 2011



That's why I hate central antilles systems.
Quoting 478. CaribBoy:



Maybe something very interesting if current organization trend continous and IF it can gain a little bit more lattitude.

We've just had a really nice downpour, the current weather is very typical of an approaching strong disturbance !

Just a drizzle here now but expecting numerous showers later. Cloudy skies prevail and the wind is picking up
96L
Quoting 505. mikatnight:

Africa flings a cloudy swarm
Spun across the blue Atlantic
Where winds whip up a mighty storm
And send the blog into a panic.



OMG, long time no see ...
How nice for you to reappear
Hope all is well with the wife and dog
Used to love the morning walks ...txjac

Sunny and warm here in Houston ...small possibility of afternoon showers ..doubt it though
Quoting 505. mikatnight:

Africa flings a cloudy swarm
Spun across the blue Atlantic
Where winds whip up a mighty storm
And send the blog into a panic.


Man, long time no see! :-) Hope Dexter is well - and you too, of course? Really missed the morning walks.
Quoting 482. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

tomorrow if the jetplane slows down I mean 97 slows down


No Recon Scheduled

Previous schedule was only for a possible mission, per todays it was not scheduled.
524. IDTH
Quoting 513. HurricaneFan:


TS in the Northern BoC.

Pretty massive in size too.
Quoting 513. HurricaneFan:


TS in the Northern BoC.
This run again is a Hurricane Alex 2010 redux.
Quoting 523. nrtiwlnvragn:



No Recon Scheduled

Previous schedule was only for a possible mission, per todays it was not scheduled.
I have yet to check going by yesterdays plan
Quoting 525. Climate175:

This run again is a Hurricane Alex 2010 redux.


Alex made landfall much farther north and was quite a bit deeper than what the GFS is showing
Repetitive pattern with Danielle part deluxe.How many times have we seen this over the last few years?
Vorticity charts suggests that the circulation of 97L extends upwards to 500mb into an upper level anticyclone. With the 850mb vorticity increasing, there should be little time between now and the development of a low level circulation. Even with the fast forward speed, development should be steady between now and 60w. Let's see if the convection continues to consolidate and circle around the center.
This scenario the GFS is predicting would bring many big mudslides
Could 97L become next beast (Wilma 2005 Atlantic Basin, or Patricia 2015 Eastern Pacific basin) or will it become a simple storm? That is the billion dollar question.
Pretty huge flop on the operational GFS for 97L. Looks more in-line with the ensembles now.

Quoting 530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




This will be something to watch. 96L staying weaker could point it towards the Caribbean as well and could cause issues down the road.
I wonder if we will see chances raised for 97L at the 2PM TWO. Maybe the chances will be increased to 20/50 or 30/50.
538. Kyon5
Quoting 520. Climate175:

96L
Still alive and kicking. We'll see what it does for the next few days.
Quoting 454. wunderkidcayman:

Interms of hurrIcane hunter recon flight as far as I can see recon mission for today 18Z another for tomorrow at 18Z and Monday 12Z

Also no cancellation either

So I guess mission still a go


Where do you see recon is flying today? Doesn't look like it to me.
Quoting 519. wadadlian:


Just a drizzle here now but expecting numerous showers later. Cloudy skies prevail and the wind is picking up


The rain stopped, now wondering when it may come back....

Quoting 533. TheDawnAwakening:

Could 97L become next beast (Wilma 2005 Atlantic Basin, or Patricia 2015 Eastern Pacific basin) or will it become a simple storm? That is the billion dollar question.
well if it don't slow down it will be nothing but fast moving rains
Quoting 539. Bucsboltsfan:



Where do you see recon is flying today? Doesn't look like it to me.


Recon is not flying today. As was said before, the previous message was for a possible mission not a scheduled one, so there was no need for a cancellation.
Looking much better!
Quoting 538. Kyon5:

Still alive and kicking. We'll see what it does for the next few days.

What about me looking at 96L and noticing it probably has a closed circulation by now?
Quoting 534. CybrTeddy:

Pretty huge flop on the operational GFS for 97L. Looks more in-line with the ensembles now.


And that's not making me happy (no rain)
Quoting 536. HurricaneFan:

I wonder if we will see chances raised for 97L at the 2PM TWO. Maybe the chances will be increased to 20/50 or 30/50.


i think 30% is too low now wish 97L doing so well now i see 50% with a high 70% at the next two
Why is everyone ignoring 96L? It probably has a closed circulation by now and yes i have gotten concrete proof of evidence, not judging a book by it's cover.
550. IDTH

Quoting 541. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well if it don't slow down it will be nothing but fast moving rains


There is a pretty good chance it does slow down. Also, it is doing a pretty good job of organizing despite the forward speed. Makes me thing it could still become a classified system sooner despite the forward speed.
Quoting 548. NunoLava1998:

Why is everyone ignoring 96L? It probably has a closed circulation by now and yes i have gotten concrete proof of evidence, not judging a book by it's cover.

96L does not have a closed circulation. A recent ASCAT pass this morning showed that it was open.
All. Systems. Go.

Quoting 548. NunoLava1998:

Why is everyone ignoring 96L? It probably has a closed circulation by now and yes i have gotten concrete proof of evidence, not judging a book by it's cover.


I don't think everyone is ignoring it, there's a slowly developing system much closer to land that warrants more attention.
Quoting 548. NunoLava1998:

Why is everyone ignoring 96L? It probably has a closed circulation by now and yes i have gotten concrete proof of evidence, not judging a book by it's cover.
because there is something closer to home too watch 96 will get its turn after 97
One of the things I find amazing about these systems is that they all seem to have their own personality in a way

Some waves do not develop despite being given good conditions and others will fight and develop despite adverse conditions

97L has done well to organize despite its forward speed.
Quoting 553. RitaEvac:

All. Systems. Go.




looks like we have a TD fourming has we speak
Quoting 553. RitaEvac:

All. Systems. Go.


not yet still way too fast could out run any kinda coc that may try and form
remember chris the naked swirl did the same
560. IDTH





Hopefully for the Gulf area, 97L gets ropeadoped by Hispanola.
The people here in Baton Rouge @ LSU Earth Scan Lab do a great job and I will pass along these products which will increase once a TD forms.

Quoting 549. Climate175:




Steering will likely not stay this way all season. I actually think the fact that the steering points a system to Mexico this early, means that it will point future systems father north during the heart of it.
Quoting 561. unknowncomic:

Hopefully for the Gulf area, 97L gets ropeadoped by Hispanola.


it looks like Hispanola. will be safe from 97L has it will past that area 2 the S
Quoting 558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not yet still way too fast could out run any kinda coc that may try and form


It is not unprecedented for a system to develop despite a fast forward speed. Of course 97L slowing down would help it, but it can still organize while moving this fast. I think it has organized more in the last 24 hours than most of us thought it would.



Simple, 97L is affecting the island at this very moment, 96L a far eastern Atlantic invest, not affecting anybody for a few days, if it ever does....
567. JLPR2
Looking much better and there's a bit more of an inflow to the system compared to yesterday, a LLC is in the works.

568. IDTH
That's a shame!


Quoting 521. justmehouston:



OMG, long time no see ...
How nice for you to reappear
Hope all is well with the wife and dog
Used to love the morning walks ...txjac

Sunny and warm here in Houston ...small possibility of afternoon showers ..doubt it though
Quoting 522. barbamz:


Man, long time no see! :-) Hope Dexter is well - and you too, of course? Really missed the morning walks.


Thanks y'all. Dexter's fine (thinks it's too blasted hot though), currently napping.
As a rule, weaker storm trends west while a stronger one will trend more poleward.


The 18Z runs to come, I will focus on the consensus thru 96 hrs.

Where those end lines stop...

Pay attention.

571. MahFL
Quoting 508. Tazmanian:

97L is really starting too get that look it looks like 97L could go in too RI mode soon


Nope, wall of shear in front of 97L :

572. IDTH
.
573. ackee
97L as that looks like it wants to spin up into a TD before entering the Eastern carribbean
Quoting 571. MahFL:



Nope, wall of shear in front of 97L :




Shear does not always stay in the same spot all of the time. Also, 97L has an anticyclone that has moved in tandem with it and should continue to do so. I don't think shear is the issue with this system.

If you check the previous maps, the wall of shear is actually moving west as well.
NAM position at 84hrs.
Quoting 573. ackee:

97L as that looks like it wants to spin up into a TD before entering the Eastern carribbean
Agree, due to the proximity to land, maybe an special bulleting for the islands soon, if this trend continues...
i would follow the whit line if 97L stay on cure it will move right over jamacia and take a more N path right over the highest heat


Link
A possible Ernesto repeat?
Good afternoon everyone. Watching 97L,right now looks better organized.Any turn more to the right will bring the system close to us in Puerto Rico.
581. IDTH
Quoting 565. Hurricanes101:



It is not unprecedented for a system to develop despite a fast forward speed. Of course 97L slowing down would help it, but it can still organize while moving this fast. I think it has organized more in the last 24 hours than most of us thought it would.

I think what could actually end up happening is that it wouldn't surprise me if it got named but didn't start to strengthen as it goes further west. I think it will be similar to Emily (2011) in the 24-to possibly 60 hour time frame for 97L (or future Earl). Once it starts to slow down, I expect at the very least, steady intensification.
Quoting 567. JLPR2:

Looking much better and there's a bit more of an inflow to the system compared to yesterday, a LLC is in the works.




Help me to send it more to the north! :)
583. MahFL
Heavy rain here in Orange Park, much needed as the grass is brown.
FYi the 12Z GFS never actually has this system making landfall or if it does, just barely

the circulation moves SE and dissipates in the BOC
#575

Best post on shear for sure....as of late.

I always explain shear in novice terms,....it is like gas,....it comes and goes.

What is depicted or forecasted now, can and will change.

But it is a player in the outcome downstream for any individual storm.

Depth of the 26C Isotherm

Quoting 571. MahFL:



Nope, wall of shear in front of 97L :




Nope what ever shear is there is weakening and moving out the way
Quoting 574. Patrap:








Speaking of... CNN did a nice article on the Indianapolis sinking. I know you are a naval expert so I figured you'd like the read. And it did mention Jaws.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/29/us/uss-indianapolis -sinking-anniversary/index.html
Quoting 578. Tazmanian:

i would follow the whit line if 97L stay on cure it will move right over jamacia and take a more N path right over the highest heat


Link



and if stays on that track it could even miss MX and shoot the gap and be in the gulf of MX model runs will be juck right now in tell we get the recon out there in tell then the model runs will be no good
Thanx for that Ravensfan..much appreciated.


Semper Fi'
Steady organization of 97L means we should expect an increase at the TWO. I would go with 40/50 but knowing the NHC they will keep it conservative until a low develops. So 30/50 it is.
Quoting 580. blobblobfan:

Good afternoon everyone. Watching 97L,right now looks better organized.Any turn more to the right will bring the system close to us in Puerto Rico.
Yes, me too here on the island, watching it closely, an I think it's organizing and gaining latitude, probably crossing south of Ponce, as a TD ...Who knows?
Quoting 513. HurricaneFan:


TS in the Northern BoC.
Um. This is an interesting model frame. Thanks.

I have a couple semi-rhetorical questions, not necessarily directed to you, but for anyone... Bueller?
~What were the North America bigger picture aka synoptic conditions for any "downcast" storm comparison?

~Were this model-frame tale to come true, wonder how the low shown here over the Central Plains might influence 97L, which is, I presume, the low (now maybe a TS) shown in the Bay of Campeche? Will the plains low be strong enough and timed well and pull the BOC low more north?

At present, downcasting may be as inappropriate as doomcasting. We must wait and see.
Quoting 571. MahFL:



Nope, wall of shear in front of 97L :




Ok to prove our point

Here is now


Ok now here was 24hrs ago
The overall envelope is intact and slowly looking better....as 97L cruise's west.


With these forecast models, it is important to watch trends. If 97L ends up stronger than what they are forecasting, then likely the system will be further north and east than what the models are showing. That means it is possible the system would either cross the northern Yucatan or even be in the channel.

I have always felt that the NW Caribbean is like a fork in the road. A small difference in location of where 97L is in the NW Caribbean can mean a huge difference in the end destination.

We have seen many instances where the models initially forecasted a system to go into the Western Gulf and then as we went on in time trended northward and eastward. We have also seen systems that were forecasted to go into the Eastern Gulf and then in time trended westward.
Best wishes to everyone in the eastern Caribbean. Be safe from the winds and rain.
599. ackee
What will the NHC do at 2pm with 97L out look

A 20/40
B 20/50
C 30/40
D 40/40
E. 50/50
Quoting 505. mikatnight:

Africa flings a cloudy swarm
Spun across the blue Atlantic
Where winds whip up a mighty storm
And send the blog into a panic.

MIK! Great to see you!
Quoting 521. justmehouston:



OMG, long time no see ...
How nice for you to reappear
Hope all is well with the wife and dog
Used to love the morning walks ...txjac

Sunny and warm here in Houston ...small possibility of afternoon showers ..doubt it though
What she said.... Used to enjoy your dog vicariously....
Quoting 599. ackee:

What will the NHC do at 2pm with 97L out look

A 20/40
B 20/50
C 30/40
D 40/40
E. 50/50


D and E are highly unlikely in this situation as I do not think the NHC thinks the chances in the 2 day and 5 day are the same. I would actually say the best option could be one you do not have listed - 30/50

Quoting 569. mikatnight:



Thanks y'all. Dexter's fine (thinks it's too blasted hot though), currently napping.


Oh! Welcome Back!

I have been wondering about you and Dexter for a long time now!
Quoting 599. ackee:

What will the NHC do at 2pm with 97L out look

A 20/40
B 20/50
C 30/40
D 40/40
E. 50/50

I say 30/50
Quoting 603. HurricaneFan:


I say 30/50


I could see 30/60 as well

I noticed in the EPAC this season that the NHC has had a big discrepancy between its 2 day and 5 day chances. This could be another example.
Quoting 592. HuracanTaino:

Yes, me too here on the island, watching it closely, an I think it's organizing and gaining latitude, probably crossing south of Ponce, as a TD ...Who knows?
So all the northeast of the system will covered us with heavy rains and gusts.
Quoting 599. ackee:

What will the NHC do at 2pm with 97L out look

A 20/40
B 20/50
C 30/40
D 40/40
E. 50/50
C
607. IDTH
Quoting 597. Hurricanes101:

With these forecast models, it is important to watch trends. If 97L ends up stronger than what they are forecasting, then likely the system will be further north and east than what the models are showing. That means it is possible the system would either cross the northern Yucatan or even be in the channel.

I have always felt that the NW Caribbean is like a fork in the road. A small difference in location of where 97L is in the NW Caribbean can mean a huge difference in the end destination.

We have seen many instances where the models initially forecasted a system to go into the Western Gulf and then as we went on in time trended eastward. We have also seen systems that were forecasted to go into the Eastern Gulf and then in time trended westward.

Right now it looks like almost certain 97L will miss Hispaniola unlike what I thought originally. So many factors, yet so fragile which can lead to big changes, which is why I'm starting to feel like we need recon in 97L.
Quoting 597. Hurricanes101:

With these forecast models, it is important to watch trends. If 97L ends up stronger than what they are forecasting, then likely the system will be further north and east than what the models are showing. That means it is possible the system would either cross the northern Yucatan or even be in the channel.

I have always felt that the NW Caribbean is like a fork in the road. A small difference in location of where 97L is in the NW Caribbean can mean a huge difference in the end destination.

We have seen many instances where the models initially forecasted a system to go into the Western Gulf and then as we went on in time trended eastward. We have also seen systems that were forecasted to go into the Eastern Gulf and then in time trended westward.


right now the way i am seeing it 97L will miss HISPANIOLA. and PR to the S has that is where 97L is entering but if i live in jamacia i would keep vary closed tabs on 97L has it could be a mod to strong TS or weak cat 1 hurricane when it gets there where 97L gos from there it could shoot the Yucatan the channel




Hopefully much more coming.

Quoting 582. CaribBoy:



Help me to send it more to the north! :)

To me the probability this system goes close to PR is almost 0 %. The leading front could bring some minimal rain to PR, though.
For those who may not be aware the USS Indianapolis was the ship that brought the materials from the US to Tinian Island in 1945 for the 2 Atomic Bombs that ended the war.

The mission was top secret and the ship went unnoticed after its arrival time and was torpedoed by the Japanese as it was sailing alone. Hundreds of American soldiers spent 3 days in the shark infested waters...before the last were rescued finally.

That is the scene in Jaws where Quint tells the 2 onboard he was on the Indy.

movie scene

Quoting 603. HurricaneFan:


I say 30/50
remain the same until last moment,as always.
613. JLPR2
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 12:45 PM AST Jul. 30, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from early Sunday morning through
Sunday evening...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* From early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* A strong tropical wave will approach the local islands late
tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
spread across the region starting tonight. The most active
period appears to be from early Sunday morning through Sunday
night.

* The potential of flooding rains is high for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands on Sunday. Rainfall totals between 2 and 4
inches
with locally higher amounts are possible with this strong
tropical wave. Localized flash flooding and landslides are likely
in areas of persistent heavy rainfall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
614. vis0
96L closer to Africa
image host

Quoting 599. ackee:

What will the NHC do at 2pm with 97L out look

A 20/40
B 20/50
C 30/40
D 40/40
E. 50/50


30/60
I'll go with 40/60 or 50/70 although it looks really close right now to a TD developing.
Quoting 582. CaribBoy:



Help me to send it more to the north! :)
Not gonna happened with that anticyclone stay in place.
Quoting 611. Patrap:

For those who may not be aware the USS Indianapolis was the ship that brought the materials from the US to Tinian Island in 1945 for the 2 Atomic Bombs that ended the war.

The mission was top secret and the ship went unnoticed after its arrival time and was torpedoed by the Japanese as it was sailing alone. Hundreds of American soldiers spent 3 days in the shark infested waters...before the last were rescued finally.

That is the scene in Jaws where Quint tells the 2 onboard he was on the Indy.

movie scene



USS Indianapolis coming to a theater near you on Sept 1st.
619. flsky
Probably the best scene the movie.

Quoting 611. Patrap:

For those who may not be aware the USS Indianapolis was the ship that brought the materials from the US to Tinian Island in 1945 for the 2 Atomic Bombs that ended the war.

The mission was top secret and the ship went unnoticed after its arrival time and was torpedoed by the Japanese as it was sailing alone. Hundreds of American soldiers spent 3 days in the shark infested waters...before the last were rescued finally.

That is the scene in Jaws where Quint tells the 2 onboard he was on the Indy.

movie scene



97L AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 609. CaribBoy:





Hopefully much more coming.




The way the system is building convection, I would think you would get at least some rain and squally weather where you are.
from where 97L is now this is where i see the track on this going even no model runs are showing some else right now but where 97L is now gives you more of a hurricane ivan like track

Quoting 617. blobblobfan:

Not gonna happened with that anticyclone stay in place.


The anticyclone does not have much to do with track.

97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.


Quoting 622. Tazmanian:

from where 97L is now this is where i see the track on this going even no model runs are showing some else right now but where 97L is now gives you more of a hurricane ivan like track


Sorry Taz but I don't see it going into the northern gulf.The ridge looks to keep 97L on track into the Yucatan and then eventually the BOC.
Mark Sudduth has put out a article
Link
Thanks Baha, Vermont.
Good afternoon.
Got Hurricane Protocol 2016 up finally. Still working on History section. Quite a few more videos this time. Trying to keep it entertaining.
Glad to see y'all & the blog keepin us straight.
Improving Dvorak scene.

628. vis0
Near Antilles::
image host
Quoting 625. washingtonian115:

Sorry Taz but I don't see it going into the gulf.The ridge looks to keep 97L on track into the Yucatan and then eventually the BOC.
Mark Sudduth has put out a article
Link


the Computer models will be a mass in tell we get the recon fights going in 97L and then we will get a better idea on where this is going
631. IDTH
Quoting 629. Tazmanian:



the Computer models will be a mass in tell we get the recon fights going in 97L and then we will get a better idea on where this is going

I'm actually thinking the same about recon flights. It would help the models.
Quoting 630. Patrap:




giving how 97L really looks this after noon i think code red is on the way 97L looks vary closed too a TD right now
Quoting 624. Patrap:


97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.




The spin in that is very clear. I think the percentages will go up quite a bit today.
Recent satellite images show more curved bands of showers and thunderstorms trying to wrap around the low level but poorly defined center of circulation. If it weren’t for the fast motion, we would probably have a tropical storm by now.

In other news a air balloon accident has happened in Texas.I wonder if the weather had something to do with it?
635. ackee
Quoting 632. Tazmanian:



giving how 97L really looks this after noon i think code red is on the way 97L looks vary closed too a TD right now
Agree I have seen worst looking system
Classified as TD who remember Colin in Gulf
Quoting 634. washingtonian115:

Recent satellite images show more curved bands of showers and thunderstorms trying to wrap around the low level but poorly defined center of circulation. If it weren’t for the fast motion, we would probably have a tropical storm by now.

In other news a air balloon accident has happened in Texas.I wonder if the weather had something to do with it?


I heard and i am so sad for the people
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph and is accompanied by
increasing shower activity. However, surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation. During the next
day or two, development should be slow to occur due to the rapid
motion of the system. Regardless of development, this system will
likely bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and
interests in these areas should monitor its progress. By the middle
of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the western
Caribbean Sea, where conditions are likely to be more conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 400 miles southwest of Cabo
Verde continues to lose organization. Development of this system
is becoming less likely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Note the consensus from the 12Z run,earlier.....and we can compare these to the soon to come 18Z pkg.

639. vis0
For 97L to intensify it has to slow down (as stated by several WxU mem)
the scenario TO ME for it to stack and "symmetricize"::
Maybe just if its deflected (SSW) the deflection will act as a "brake" but in not being a full stop thus not a shock to the stack-to-be flow, the circulation to be can recoupe and strengthen south of P.R. - Hispaniola. I'm still concerned of that ULL activity near the Keys in that if it strengthens not necessarily into a Hurr but well formed TS, enough to add moisture to grounds then if 97L turns N/NW past Cuba an already saturated ground could be in trouble.
96L went up 30/60
96L went down 20/20
96L has pulled the same trick on me as last year...I thought it would have been at least a tropical depression by now, instead, there is this....



May it bite the dust before it can break anything...:)
GFS ensemble landfall is the TX/MX border. The farther north the system gets, the more of a chance it has of impacting the U.S.
96 is likely dud and 97 too fast be 72 hrs before tale is told
Quoting 622. Tazmanian:

from where 97L is now this is where i see the track on this going even no model runs are showing some else right now but where 97L is now gives you more of a hurricane ivan like track




I kinda agree but I say tracks South of Jamaica and SW of me

I think 97L will finally work on developing its low level circulation over the rest of this afternoon/evening and overnight
97L is tapping into the warmer waters to its West it's upwards in develop more here on out IMO

I do think 97L needs to slow down some
Quoting 640. Patrap:



approach C3 threshold I see
I don't think it will get that high
2 then the yuc be in the way then rebuild in boc
Quoting 620. Patrap:


97L AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)




it's smiling at us.

649. IDTH
.
Quoting 645. wunderkidcayman:



I kinda agree but I say tracks South of Jamaica and SW of me

I think 97L will finally work on developing its low level circulation over the rest of this afternoon/evening and overnight
97L is tapping into the warmer waters to its West it's upwards in develop more here on out IMO

I do think 97L needs to slow down some


i agreed with this the stronger it gets now the more N it gos

the USA is not out of the woods yet TX is the highst risk area
Quoting 638. Patrap:

Note the consensus from the 12Z run,earlier.....and we can compare these to the soon to come 18Z pkg.




On iPhone, that maroon color model taking it right over NW carribbean and at tip of yucatan is dangerous path...from Louisiana to mainland Mexico.
Quoting 651. RitaEvac:



On iPhone, that maroon color model taking it right over NW carribbean and at tip of yucatan is dangerous path...from Louisiana to mainland Mexico.


and its all so more in line with the track i made
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.2
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.5 18.1 18.2 17.8 17.1 16.0 15.3 15.1
LONG(DEG W) 51.3 54.0 56.5 59.0 61.5 66.6 71.8 76.5 80.7 84.0 86.6 88.4 89.6
STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 25 24 21 19 15 11 7 6

V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 44 48 56 68 76 52 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 33 39 37 44 46 54 62 46 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
654. IDTH
When I think of E storms in the Caribbean, this is the one that always comes to mind:

Quoting 644. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

96 is likely dud and 97 too fast be 72 hrs before tale is told


I think we could see a TD or TS from 97L before it slows down considering how it has gotten better organized in the last 36 hours despite how fast it is moving. Fast forward speed does not automatically prevent a system from developing.
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



I think we could see a TD or TS from 97L before it slows down considering how it has gotten better organized in the last 36 hours despite how fast it is moving. Fast forward speed does not automatically prevent a system from developing.
I can see a minimal Hurricane out of 97L, but in the end it all depends on the amount of interaction with the Greater Antilles.
Quoting 656. Methurricanes:

I can see a minimal Hurricane out of 97L, but in the end it all depends on the amount of interaction with the Greater Antilles.


At this point, I am not sure it will be impacted much by them unless it pulls farther north soon. Even if it does, every system is different. Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 became a TS as it was moving between PR and DR and did not lose its intensity while crossing DR and Haiti going east to west.

None of this is an automatic, every storm writes its own story. 97L can still develop before slowing down and can still develop while interacting with the Greater Antilles.
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



I think we could see a TD or TS from 97L before it slows down considering how it has gotten better organized in the last 36 hours despite how fast it is moving. Fast forward speed does not automatically prevent a system from developing.
true but I think NHC has this pegged but never know I guess
659. JRRP7
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



I think we could see a TD or TS from 97L before it slows down considering how it has gotten better organized in the last 36 hours despite how fast it is moving. Fast forward speed does not automatically prevent a system from developing.


how ever 97L is nothing more then a open wave at this time has

surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation.
Euro not showing much development but has the energy near the tip of the Yucatan.
Quoting 660. Tazmanian:



how ever 97L is nothing more then a open wave at this time has

surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation.


pressures wont fall until a circulation starts to form. Turning is now evident with the system, which was not true overnight. This could be the start of it gathering a circulation.
Quoting 660. Tazmanian:



how ever 97L is nothing more then a open wave at this time has

surface observations and
satellite wind data show that pressures are relatively high in the
area and that there are no signs of a circulation.

just cyclonic rotation
giving illusion of a spin
too fast
forward speed needs to be down
to 11 to 14 knots min for something nice too spin up
we got too wait 72 hrs before we get down too
that forward speed timeframe
Quoting 632. Tazmanian:



giving how 97L really looks this after noon i think code red is on the way 97L looks vary closed too a TD right now
Same, thus could be the next Ernesto or Isaac.
Quoting 630. Patrap:


Good outflow at the top, all quadrants.
booting along this time yesterday it was at 47 48 west its a mover
too fast a mover
667. ackee
Quoting 665. HouGalv08:

Good outflow at the top, all quadrants.
this sure does not look like a wave anymore on this picture
668. 7544
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



I think we could see a TD or TS from 97L before it slows down considering how it has gotten better organized in the last 36 hours despite how fast it is moving. Fast forward speed does not automatically prevent a system from developing.


Is it possible the ull in the bahamas pulls 97 with it and 97 goes little further north when it get closer to it tia
669. IDTH
A lot of warming has started to take place in the MDR.

670. IDTH
96L, nothing but suppression, while 97L is getting much more help as the CCKW makes it's way towards it.

(Edit Posted the wrong image the first time)


AL, 97, 2016073018, , BEST, 0, 150N, 545W, 30, 1009

ATCF likes 97L
More BOC madness...We've seen this several times over the last several years.We already know how the movie ends...

18z ATCF update takes winds up to 30kts, pressure to 1009mb. Also, 97L has actually sped up a bit today. Moving at a pretty remarkable rate, three degrees longitude in 6 hours.
AL, 96, 2016073018, , BEST, 0, 115N, 290W, 25, 1010, LO
676. SLU
30/1745 UTC 14.8N 54.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic
Quoting 672. washingtonian115:

More BOC madness...We've seen this several times over the last several years.We already know who the movie ends...



Better hope it gets stronger faster... weaker it stays the more likely it is for Mexico
the current forward motion at 25-30 mph has not prevented 97L from getting better organized over the last 2 days, so I am not sure it is a foregone conclusion to say it will not get classified until it slows down.
679. ackee
Quoting 676. SLU:

30/1745 UTC 14.8N 54.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic
I think 97L even thow moving fast will be a TD before 72 Hours
Quoting 673. MAweatherboy1:

18z ATCF update takes winds up to 30kts, pressure to 1009mb. Also, 97L has actually sped up a bit today. Moving at a pretty remarkable rate, three degrees longitude in 6 hours.
Is it trying to compete with Usain Bolt's record? Wow.
Quoting 679. ackee:

I think 97L even thow moving fast will be a TD before 72 Hours


no closed low no TD
Quoting 665. HouGalv08:

Good outflow at the top, all quadrants.
It also appears to be moving a bit north to due west, heading to the general dierection of Guadalupe...
Quoting 616. sporteguy03:

I'll go with 40/60 or 50/70 although it looks really close right now to a TD developing.


needs a closed low 1st and in tell that happens no TD
can we please stop with the off topic photos thank you


now that 97L is really start getting going the mods can really start in forcing the rules so that kind of stuff can get you banned


and when 97L rally gets going am going in too hiding
This storm might hop straight to Tropical Storm, because fast moving storms usually have a hard time closing off, so often they have winds of 40mph prior to closing off.
Quoting 687. Patrap:


I think that picture perfectly shows why 96Ls chances got cut, look at all that dry air behind 97L.
96L becoming more organized and a closed circulation seems to be present, along with it becoming more symmetrical and TCFP's forecast for us seems to be likely to be raised. My chance is 90/100 for this storm, and 97L being a TD already.
AL, 97, 2016073012, , BEST, 0, 146N, 515W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 97, 2016073018, , BEST, 0, 150N, 545W, 30, 1009, DB
12Z GFDL, inner nest looses the circulation but outer nest develops in GOM


http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmospherre/gulf-and -tropics/LC/
TXNT21 KNES 301813
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 30/1745Z

C. 14.8N

D. 54.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...97L CONTINUES NOT TO HAVE A LOW LEVEL CENTER. CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OF 3/10 YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET =
1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/1406Z 14.8N 53.1W GMI


...KIBLER


Link
Good consensus out to 72 hours again.


697. IDTH
Quoting 692. GeoffreyWPB:





Ships intensity model continues to trend up.
Quoting 697. IDTH:


Ships intensity model continues to trend up.


notice the trend northward or a turn northward of the tracks too

intensity very likely could impact the track
Quoting 651. RitaEvac:



On iPhone, that maroon color model taking it right over NW carribbean and at tip of yucatan is dangerous path...from Louisiana to mainland Mexico.


That track is a probable major hurricane in the Gulf. Only one solution but exactly why 97L is worth watching.
Must say impressed by the development of two CV features this early in the season. Labor day may be interesting- seems there is alway a Hurricane out there then.
702. JLPR2
Vorticity has improved significantly on 97L since yesterday, it's aligned decently from the mid-levels to the 850mb level, but it still needs to improve on the 850mb which is the closest to the surface that CIMMS shows us. Right now its spin is broader and weaker at that level than in the 700mb and 500mb levels.

Quoting 698. Hurricanes101:



notice the trend northward or a turn northward of the tracks too

intensity very likely could impact the track


TX too LA need too watch 97L has are luck with no major hurricane land fall could vary well end with 97L
Quoting 696. Patrap:

Good consensus out to 72 hours again.





Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T201604)
3:00 AM JST July 31 2016
=========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nida (990 hPa) located at 16.7N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 19.4N 120.4E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Bashi Channel
48 HRS: 21.5N 115.6E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
72 HRS: 23.4N 110.7E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland South China
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop

At 1800 UTC, 30 July 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.0°N and 54.5°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 27 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

i have gave 97L a 900,000 speeding fine it needs too slow down and i think that will happen come sunday
Quoting 579. washingtonian115:

A possible Ernesto repeat?


That seems like a good possibility. I'm thinking 97L or what comes of it will track a little more north than Ernesto did like around the Northan Yuctan or the channel.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 07/30/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7

STM SPEED (KT) 28 27 26 25 24 22 20 16 12 8 6 11 15

LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.4 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 54.5 57.4 60.1 62.7 65.2 70.1 74.5 78.2 81.1 83.0 84.3 85.4 87.2

V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 47 54 62 68 77 87 61 58 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 40 44 51 56 64 75 87 63 59 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

Quoting 704. GeoffreyWPB:






More and more solutions running this thing south of the Greater Antilles.
if 97L was moving at 5 too 10 mph right now we could be talking about a mod too strong TS right now in that same spot
Quoting 712. ProPoly:



More and more solutions running this thing south of the Greater Antilles.


Yes, It was obvious since yesterday
Today we broke the record for most days without a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, 1048 days, not sure how much longer that will last, maybe just a few more days.

Looks like 97L is expanding its moisture field to completely fill the circular area that is the upper Anti Cyclone area following it. I do not like that look. But supposedly no near term development. 97 is holding its cards for later in the game. I wish Levi would chime in! The West Carib looks like a washingmachine. I would assume that mess is all headed West as well. Taking sheer with it? I have never been good at understanding the dynamics of the atmosphere ahead of a storm (days in advance)
97L...

Looks like the N Leewards may get copious rains as well.

Link

Quoting 718. CaribBoy:

Looks like the N Leewards may get copious rains as well.

Link


Might be a Tropical Storm by Tomorrow, also it has grown a lot in size in the last 36 hours, it was tiny Thursday Night/Fri Morning.
720. vis0
aniGIF (Low clouds/fog imagery)
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/ERAU
OBS:: Tropical ATL
NOTE:: Is 96L getting a replacement for what it lost when an outflow hit it, it looks like its northern ignition area is being replaced thanks (♪double)AA♪...MCO
image host
Atlantic Atmospheric MesoCyclingOps
Quoting 706. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop





Although that type of loop gives some of the best visual details, I have never liked it. It messes with my brain. Its like the film method in Blair Witch!
722. IDTH
Mark Sudduth with a new video update

Link
Quoting 692. GeoffreyWPB:




Track really diverge in the NW Caribbean. As long it continues to organize the likehood for a track over the greater antilles increase. Not sure if it would survive a direct cross over Hispañola. Have seen the island destroy strong hurricanes as strong disturbances. Will see.
1710 UTC AL972016 - INVEST

2km Natural Color Imagery

Green Estimated

726. JRRP7
728. vis0
Quoting 715. Methurricanes:

Today we broke the record for most days without a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, 1048 days, not sure how much longer that will last, maybe just a few more days.
How are the days counted?? eveyday of a year or only from when the 1st TS forms or only during ATL TS season (June-Nov) would ask unkie googy but in a hurry to go out
Something of note that might be missed. The new intensity models are now showing this as a TS within 24-36 hours
well we await the afternoon blog post update on our systems

should be posted soon
Quoting 718. CaribBoy:

Looks like the N Leewards may get copious rains as well.

Link


Waiting a right turn for you and for me.
Quoting 728. vis0:

How are the days counted?? eveyday of a year or only from when the 1st TS forms or only during ATL TS season (June-Nov) would ask unkie googy but in a hurry to go out
must be every day, because August 2013 was the last Hurricane in the Gulf, it were Hurricane season days it would be about 6 years not about 3.
Quoting 673. MAweatherboy1:

18z ATCF update takes winds up to 30kts, pressure to 1009mb. Also, 97L has actually sped up a bit today. Moving at a pretty remarkable rate, three degrees longitude in 6 hours.

Hard to get the ambient surface flow circulating under something moving that fast. Unless it slows, it'll remain a strong midlevel wave, and give the NAmer monsoon a nice surge. If it manages to keep its westward momentum, it could even spin something up in the Pacific.
Quoting 731. LargoFl:


I don't understand how people look at a map like that and say
"clearly its going south of the Greater Antilles"
738. IDTH
Quoting 733. Gearsts:



I think people underestimated the MDR this season.
Quoting 721. QueensWreath:




Although that type of loop gives some of the best visual details, I have never liked it. It messes with my brain. Its like the film method in Blair Witch!
This loops are crazy.
Quoting 732. blobblobfan:

Waiting a right turn for you and for me.


Systems often turn a bit more to the WNW after 55W, so I'm watching closely :))
i think we may have a TD on our hands now. it definitely looks like the system has gotten really organised now, with the islands bracing themselves for heavy rain and gusty winds to storm strengh.
Quoting 723. allancalderini:

Track really diverge in the NW Caribbean. As long it continues to organize the likehood for a track over the greater antilles increase. Not sure if it would survive a direct cross over Hispañola. Have seen the island destroy strong hurricanes as strong disturbances. Will see.



Some of the model runs that are calling for 97 to continue due West To Mexico were counting on a ? (Secondary) High pressure to form in the NE GOM off the Fl Panhandle. I think the diversions we are seeing now are starting to question that scenario. In other words... Will there only be the Bermuda type High that would allow a weakness for a storm to flow more West and North around the High, or will there be a secondary(reinforcing) High blocking any NW route.
Is that what any of you all are seeing in the models?
Does anyone knows where is my Commander in Chief Grothar? I miss him.
The T# has gone up for 97L

97L now T1.5/1.5
Quoting 726. JRRP7:


Really getting that look.
Quoting 743. blobblobfan:

Does anyone knows where is my Commander in Chief Grothar? I miss him.
he is here don't worry he will post when he is ready
Latest GFS ensemble still brings 97L toward Yucatan and MX/Texas border by next weekend. Potential for TS or Hurr. http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CooxZGDUAAAvfP1.jpg
Quoting 742. QueensWreath:




Some of the model runs that are calling for 97 to continue due West To Mexico were counting on a ? (Secondary) High pressure to form in the NE GOM off the Fl Panhandle. I think the diversions we are seeing now are starting to question that scenario. In other words... Will there only be the Bermuda type High that would allow a weakness for a storm to flow more West and North around the High, or will there be a secondary(reinforcing) High blocking any NW route.
Is that what any of you all are seeing in the models?

Two things
1) Strength of the High
2) Strength of the Storm
weaker paths are to the south (BAMS vs BAMD)
that is in addition to what you said up there.
Quoting 745. Climate175:

Really getting that look.
needs to close off then we see what it does with itself
Quoting 697. IDTH:


Ships intensity model continues to trend up.


Newbie's question to seasoned observers : is it me or is the SHIPS always the most bullish on TC intensification, all basins considered ? At least I think I've noticed that trend in the last 6 months, along with the unwillingness of most TCs to heed the call.
Latest email update from met in Houston states that ridge is to build in Monday and Tuesday then weaken and move north by Thursday and Friday of next week with PWS values surging. Doorway looks to be open in the GOM once system enters it.
#747

Quoting 740. CaribBoy:



Systems often turn a bit more to the WNW after 55W, so I'm watching closely :))
Many of them are organized systems,not like this one.Let's see what happen with at this moment disorganized system.
Quoting 745. Climate175:

Really getting that look.
The shrimp look. Most of the time reveals a healthy system.
Quoting 751. RitaEvac:

Latest email update from met in Houston states that ridge is to build in Monday and Tuesday then weaken and move north by Thursday and Friday of next week with PWS values surging. Doorway looks to be open in the GOM once system enters it.


Thanks Rita. Ridge builds and quickly weakens (moves off) Timing and speed are crucial (as always)
ECMWF slowly starting to get on the development train for 97L.

97L looks to be on a one way ticket to Mexico.Private ridge will make sure of that.
759. JRRP7
Quoting 740. CaribBoy:



Systems often turn a bit more to the WNW after 55W, so I'm watching closely :))

Like Irene ?

Now is the time to review your hurricane preparations and make sure you can enact those plans. Make it a point to check the weather at least once a day (for us gurus is minute to minute) for the next week.
NHC has bumped 97L to 60%
Looking at the steering flow 97L ain't gonna pull WNW until atleast 73W maybe it won't till 75-78W

Quoting 761. RitaEvac:

NHC has bumped 97L to 60%


thank you for telling us stuff we all ready no
Quoting 750. 999Ai2016:



Newbie's question to seasoned observers : is it me or is the SHIPS always the most bullish on TC intensification, all basins considered ? At least I think I've noticed that trend in the last 6 months, along with the unwillingness of most TCs to heed the call.
its all guidance really till a well establish system is modeled
Quoting 759. JRRP7:


Like Irene ?




Yes a track through Antigua then St Kitts is fine.
Quoting 741. stoormfury:

i think we may have a TD on our hands now. it definitely looks like the system has gotten really organised now, with the islands bracing themselves for heavy rain and gusty winds to storm strengh.


no closed low no TD
Also speaking about chart new are in

Upper level anticyclone helping to push out the shear in the the Caribbean good outflow on all sides of 97L
Low level vort continues to organise and deepen
Could 97L be the chosen one to test these waters? I guess that is yet to be seen.The models do show it finally slowing down but models are horrible when it comes to RI or anything of the like this far out.I'am not counting out anything yet with these waters.For now I'll go with a mid-grade T.S at best.
NHC: No signs of a circulation

1/2 of blog: This looks like a Tropical Depression

Looks =/= cyclone
Quoting 758. washingtonian115:

97L looks to be on a one way ticket to Mexico.Private ridge will make sure of that.


That is not a foregone conclusion since the models are not good with intensity. In this case a stronger system will be further north and even if it is moving West or WNW could make landfall farther north.
Quoting 762. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at the steering flow 97L ain't gonna pull WNW until atleast 73W maybe it won't till 75-78W




Watch the new Mark Sudduth video. He says this will stay due west all the way to the Yucatan. Said conditions look pretty favorable ahead of it.
I think I see an eye forming...
Quoting 767. wunderkidcayman:

Also speaking about chart new are in

Upper level anticyclone helping to push out the shear in the the Caribbean good outflow on all sides of 97L
Low level vort continues to organise and deepen


Where's this new chart?

Upper level wind barbs in the current satellite show no anticyclone, just easterlies, diverging a bit downwind from the wave. Haven't seen any mention anywhere yet that a surface circulation has formed. No hot towers have popped into the picture yet, just ordinary tropical t-storms.
97L making for breezy conditions in St. Thomas. Link
Quoting 773. BayFog:


Where's this new chart?

Upper level wind barbs in the current satellite show no anticyclone, just easterlies, diverging a bit downwind from the wave. Haven't seen any mention anywhere yet that a surface circulation has formed. No hot towers have popped into the picture yet, just ordinary tropical t-storms.




There is an anticyclone over 97L, hence the outflow
776. JLPR2
Quoting 759. JRRP7:


Like Irene ?




I was actually thinking earlier that it looked like a weak Irene structurally, with the preceding band of convection and the hole in the convection.

Though in other ways it is nowhere near Irene.
here in martinique heavy rains, gusty winds,thunderstorms things are really speed up for the worst and its just the beginning
778. JRRP7
wow much better now
looks 56w
Quoting 760. RitaEvac:

Now is the time to review your hurricane preparations and make sure you can enact those plans. Make it a point to check the weather at least once a day (for us gurus is minute to minute) for the next week.


YUP!
Got my Generator out today and doing the season start up/check up!
Quoting 779. Patrap:


I can definitely see some good spin in the convection
Quoting 775. Hurricanes101:





There is an anticyclone over 97L, hence the outflow

What is that chart and where does it come from? From what I can make out, and it's difficult without seeing a larger image, it's a wind shear map? I see some contours extending over the center of the wave, but are these isobars or just isotachs? If isobars, it appears to be a ridge, not a closed anticyclone, and contradicts the upper air flow depicted as an overlay on the current satellite image.
Quoting 781. Camerooski:

I can definitely see some good spin in the convection
It does. Much more spin than yesterday.
I think it actually will jump straight to Tropical Storm.
because right now it is 30kts and doesn't have a closed circulation. With such fast forward speed it might be a bit difficult to close of the low until it gets stonger. That said this time Sunday I fully expect a Tropical Storm.
I remember Fay i think went straight to a 50mph TS because it took so long to close off.
Quoting 782. BayFog:


What is that chart and where does it come from? (...)

Shear, from UW-CIMSS/NESDIS : Link
Quoting 773. BayFog:


Where's this new chart?

Upper level wind barbs in the current satellite show no anticyclone, just easterlies, diverging a bit downwind from the wave. Haven't seen any mention anywhere yet that a surface circulation has formed. No hot towers have popped into the picture yet, just ordinary tropical t-storms.


Read shear charts
Quoting 782. BayFog:


What is that chart and where does it come from? From what I can make out, and it's difficult without seeing a larger image, it's a wind shear map? I see some contours extending over the center of the wave, but are these isobars or just isotachs? If isobars, it appears to be a ridge, not a closed anticyclone, and contradicts the upper air flow depicted as an overlay on the current satellite image.


From my understanding, anticyclones rarely close off completely. Anticyclones help to ventilate a system and can protect them from other wind shear.
787. JLPR2
Quoting 782. BayFog:


What is that chart and where does it come from? ...


The blog fell silent after this... XD
Fun fact: If 97L develops before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, it will be the first tropical cyclone to develop in the Caribbean Sea since June 2013 (Tropical Storm Barry).
After taking a break of a few hours 97L looks a lot better now. Good rotation and consolidation of thunderstorms indicate that it could develop a closed low before getting into hostile waters. With evening fast approaching out there we will likely see another burst of activity tonight.

The 850 vort is still on the weak side IMO but another 12 hours could change all of that. A very nasty night in store for the Leewards. I hope that flash flood warnings have been issued. With 35 MPH winds in mountainous terrain and copious amounts of rain there is a strong possibility of damage even without TD classification.

Back in a while.
97L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

792. beell
Atmospheric Shear

Background: Using the gridded atmospheric motion vector output u and v AMV components are averaged over an upper layer (150, 200, 250, and 300 hPa) and a lower layer (700, 775, 850, and 925 hPa). The difference in these averaged components is used to compute the speed shear between the upper and lower layers. The contours show the vector magnitude shear (absolute value). The streamlines indicate the direction of the shear.

In the case when a tropical cyclone (TC) is present, the analyses are modified in the storm region by a procedure which removes the storm circulation within a prescribed radii. This allows a more representative depiction of the environmental shear acting on the storm.

Uses: The presence/lack of atmospheric wind shear is vital to hindering/supporting TC development. A low shear environment is favorable for tropical cyclone development, while a high shear environment will deter a immature TC region from (further) developing or destroy an already mature TC. Shear values below 10 m/s (20 kts) are considered low enough for tropical cyclogenesis.


CIMSS-Shear Product Information
No one is looking at 96L and realizing it is a depression already
I'm not joking
When this crosses the island shouldn't we know if there is a for sure surface low or not? I am by no means an expert but 97L has got to be close. It looks like it's doing a little venting on the northern side. Then again my eyes could be messing with me.
Quoting 793. NunoLava1998:

No one is looking at 96L and realizing it is a depression already
I'm not joking


No one is looking because 96L is not a depression. No closed circulation based on the latest pass and the convection is less organized than it was. 96L is a pretty big mess right now.
796. JLPR2
D-min has passed for 96L and is now on its way to 97L.
Quoting 781. Camerooski:

I can definitely see some good spin in the convection

But impossible to see the surface flow. Clearly, there's a midlevel circulation, which is pretty common with any strong tropical wave. We await ground truth reports.
Quoting 795. Hurricanes101:



No one is looking because 96L is not a depression. No closed circulation based on the latest pass and the convection is less organized than it was. 96L is a pretty big mess right now.

It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).
Quoting 798. NunoLava1998:


It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).


Who is we? lol

If you can post proof it is closed, then do so. Thunderstorm activity is a mess right now. Persistent convection is required for designation as well and we do not have that.
Quoting 793. NunoLava1998:

No one is looking at 96L and realizing it is a depression already
I'm not joking


Evidence?

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 400 miles southwest of Cabo
Verde continues to lose organization.

I agree with Kori...at least offer some shred of an argument when you stipulate something. For now, I'll conclude you're joking.
Quoting 793. NunoLava1998:

No one is looking at 96L and realizing it is a depression already
I'm not joking


96L has no closed low so stop with the wish casting all ready


commits like this is going too get shoot down by other posters
Quoting 795. Hurricanes101:



No one is looking because 96L is not a depression. No closed circulation based on the latest pass and the convection is less organized than it was. 96L is a pretty big mess right now.

Yep, 96L is not a tropical depression right now. There is no closed circulation. NHC lowered its chances to 20/20 for a reason. I do not expect 96L to develop. 97L, however, could get interesting soon...
Updated: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 20:30:04 GMT


Atlantic Basin


No Active Warnings
As of Sat, 30 Jul 2016 20:30:04 GMT
Quoting 802. HurricaneFan:


Yep, 96L is not a tropical depression right now. There is no closed circulation. NHC lowered its chances to 20/20 for a reason. I do not expect 96L to develop. 97L, however, could get interesting soon...


I am not writing 96L off completely as the weaker system could move towards the Caribbean as well and could find better conditions down the line. Right now though, 97L is organizing faster, is better organized and is closer to land.
Quoting 800. Astrometeor:



Evidence?

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered about 400 miles southwest of Cabo
Verde continues to lose organization.

I agree with Kori...at least offer some shred of an argument when you stipulate something. For now, I'll conclude you're joking.


"tropical wave and a low pressure system" Don't forget the importance of the word "and". It's not just a tropical wave within the invest.
Quoting 805. HadesGodWyvern:



"tropical wave and a low pressure system" Don't forget the importance of the word "and". It's not just a tropical wave within the invest.


low pressure system is there, but it does not mean it is closed. Nuno is stating that there is proof it is closed, so we asked for it to be provided.
807. TXCWC
I don't do blog entries that often but just did a quick one this afternoon on 97L if you care to check it out. Comments/Constructive criticism appreciated. :) Link
96L looks terrible.Nothing but thin clouds.
Invest 97L has the potential to be something significant in a few days. The environment across the West Caribbean and Gulf is exceptionally conducive, and we can already see this afternoon the wave is resilient.
It seems like ever since 2009, many tropical systems in the Atlantic have either gone into the Yucanta/mainland Mexico or have been fish storms and gone out to sea if they were approaching from north of the Antilles. I find it hard to imagine that only 3 hurricanes made landfall in between(Isaac, Sandy, Arthur) and Arthur and Isaac were minimal hurricanes. Correct me if I am wrong, but one of my friends told me that it might be possible that climate change or the warming of the Arctic regions have caused an amplification of the jet stream causing more persistent troughs along the east coast and that this has possibly caused stronger high pressure areas over the Gulf of Mexico region making Caribbean tropical cyclones to plow into the Yucatan and mainland Mexico/Bay of Campeche region as opposed to moving up toward the US Gulf coast. What are your thoughts on this?
This is to the folks that said this years hurricane season would be a bust.....4 named storms, one hurricane , and..





Quoting 806. Hurricanes101:



low pressure system is there, but it does not mean it is closed. Nuno is stating that there is proof it is closed, so we asked for it to be provided.

I had provided some proof, which now is lasting for hours and increasing. But here's it again:
It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).
Oh, and here's some text from my blog:
After reanalysis of “96L”, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression. It has winds of 30 mph and heavy thunderstorms, rain and clouds, in a moist environment and a cyclonic look and a completely closed circulation. This is a depression. Pressure is estimated at 1008.5 mbar by us. Every criteria for a tropical cyclone is met. It has no dry air.
96L seems to be more symmetrical and compact, raising the chance to 90%. This means that 96L is closer and closer to being a tropical depression, while a ring seems to be visible on satellite imagery with strong thunderstorms and rain and clouds being produced all the way into the center and other signs of strengthening. It seems to be moving into a favorable area. This definetely proves a tropical depression is close to forming. Winds and strongness is obviously going up, while the pressure is estimated by us at around 1009 mbar, normal for a 30 mph tropical depression, and the direction (SW) it’s going is at slow speed and away from SAL. It’s probably just a matter of minutes or hours before we call this a tropical depression.

97L is still chilling, and we expect that it is likely a tropical depression by now. A ring has formed and thunderstorms and rain are mostly on the bands, but a little bit is visible outside the bands.
97L Water Vapor


96L
Quoting 811. lobdelse81:

It seems like ever since 2009, many tropical systems in the Atlantic have either gone into the Yucanta/mainland Mexico or have been fish storms and gone out to sea if they were approaching from north of the Antilles. I find it hard to imagine that only 3 hurricanes made landfall in between(Isaac, Sandy, Arthur) and Arthur and Isaac were minimal hurricanes. Correct me if I am wrong, but one of my friends told me that it might be possible that climate change or the warming of the Arctic regions have caused an amplification of the jet stream causing more persistent troughs along the east coast and that this has possibly caused stronger high pressure areas over the Gulf of Mexico region making Caribbean tropical cyclones to plow into the Yucatan and mainland Mexico/Bay of Campeche region as opposed to moving up toward the US Gulf coast. What are your thoughts on this?
The world has not warmed enough in 7 years to that drastically effect weather patterns. Now if maybe there was a huge difference between 1905-1935 and 1985-2015 then maybe you would have something.
816. Tcwx2

Can definitely begin to see a spin developing. I am surprised at how it 1) developed thunderstorms in dry air and 2) Is developing rather quickly given speed. This could become something major down the road and I'm a little worried about people outside of Texas writing this off even though Texas and Mexico appears to be the target, don't be too surprised if you start hearing Louisiana, Mississippi etc... in the mix. Will be back for the 18z GFS run but for now I'm out. Have a good day.
Quoting 811. lobdelse81:

It seems like ever since 2009, many tropical systems in the Atlantic have either gone into the Yucanta/mainland Mexico or have been fish storms and gone out to sea if they were approaching from north of the Antilles. I find it hard to imagine that only 3 hurricanes made landfall in between(Isaac, Sandy, Arthur) and Arthur and Isaac were minimal hurricanes. Correct me if I am wrong, but one of my friends told me that it might be possible that climate change or the warming of the Arctic regions have caused an amplification of the jet stream causing more persistent troughs along the east coast and that this has possibly caused stronger high pressure areas over the Gulf of Mexico region making Caribbean tropical cyclones to plow into the Yucatan and mainland Mexico/Bay of Campeche region as opposed to moving up toward the US Gulf coast. What are your thoughts on this?


Irene
96L/INV
Quoting 813. NunoLava1998:


I had provided some proof, which now is lasting for hours and increasing. But here's it again:
It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).
Oh, and here's some text from my blog:
After reanalysis of “96L”, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression. It has winds of 30 mph and heavy thunderstorms, rain and clouds, in a moist environment and a cyclonic look and a completely closed circulation. This is a depression. Pressure is estimated at 1008.5 mbar by us. Every criteria for a tropical cyclone is met. It has no dry air.
96L seems to be more symmetrical and compact, raising the chance to 90%. This means that 96L is closer and closer to being a tropical depression, while a ring seems to be visible on satellite imagery with strong thunderstorms and rain and clouds being produced all the way into the center and other signs of strengthening. It seems to be moving into a favorable area. This definetely proves a tropical depression is close to forming. Winds and strongness is obviously going up, while the pressure is estimated by us at around 1009 mbar, normal for a 30 mph tropical depression, and the direction (SW) it’s going is at slow speed and away from SAL. It’s probably just a matter of minutes or hours before we call this a tropical depression.

97L is still chilling, and we expect that it is likely a tropical depression by now. A ring has formed and thunderstorms and rain are mostly on the bands, but a little bit is visible outside the bands.



thats not proof
Quoting 813. NunoLava1998:


I had provided some proof, which now is lasting for hours and increasing. But here's it again:
It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).
Oh, and here's some text from my blog:
After reanalysis of %u201C96L%u201D, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression. It has winds of 30 mph and heavy thunderstorms, rain and clouds, in a moist environment and a cyclonic look and a completely closed circulation. This is a depression. Pressure is estimated at 1008.5 mbar by us. Every criteria for a tropical cyclone is met. It has no dry air.
96L seems to be more symmetrical and compact, raising the chance to 90%. This means that 96L is closer and closer to being a tropical depression, while a ring seems to be visible on satellite imagery with strong thunderstorms and rain and clouds being produced all the way into the center and other signs of strengthening. It seems to be moving into a favorable area. This definetely proves a tropical depression is close to forming. Winds and strongness is obviously going up, while the pressure is estimated by us at around 1009 mbar, normal for a 30 mph tropical depression, and the direction (SW) it%u2019s going is at slow speed and away from SAL. It%u2019s probably just a matter of minutes or hours before we call this a tropical depression.

97L is still chilling, and we expect that it is likely a tropical depression by now. A ring has formed and thunderstorms and rain are mostly on the bands, but a little bit is visible outside the bands.


Saying we found proof is not proof. Show us the surface winds that show it is closed, don't just say WE found proof.

Also the convection is very disorganized right now, especially compared to how it was a few days ago.
Quoting 814. Chicklit:

97L Water Vapor


96L

fast moving trpcl wav
Quoting 818. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

96L/INV

Gettin ugly...fast...
just dont know 96 or 97 atm long term damage.
Quoting 812. hydrus:

This is to the folks that said this years hurricane season would be a bust.....4 named storms, one hurricane , and..

<
lots more action yet too come these early one's not worth fighting about burn ya out before the real deal comes along
Quoting 822. hydrus:

Gettin ugly...fast...


96L looks pretty bad. Convection was much more organized 24-36 hours ago
826. Tcwx2
You literally just said "After reanalysis of “96L”, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression." Than came back in the next paragraph and said that you raised the chances of development to 90%. It's possible that it is already a closed low, which would make it a depression, but that cannot be confirmed yet. I do believe that once we get weather stations over the islands reporting then we will have a better feel as to if it is closed or not.
Quoting 813. NunoLava1998:


I had provided some proof, which now is lasting for hours and increasing. But here's it again:
It's a mess but we did extensive research over the last few hours and found that 96L has definetly a closed circulation. Check Windyty and Nullschool, along with satellite imagery from ssd.noaa.gov (SSD/SPSD).
Oh, and here's some text from my blog:
After reanalysis of “96L”, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression. It has winds of 30 mph and heavy thunderstorms, rain and clouds, in a moist environment and a cyclonic look and a completely closed circulation. This is a depression. Pressure is estimated at 1008.5 mbar by us. Every criteria for a tropical cyclone is met. It has no dry air.
96L seems to be more symmetrical and compact, raising the chance to 90%. This means that 96L is closer and closer to being a tropical depression, while a ring seems to be visible on satellite imagery with strong thunderstorms and rain and clouds being produced all the way into the center and other signs of strengthening. It seems to be moving into a favorable area. This definetely proves a tropical depression is close to forming. Winds and strongness is obviously going up, while the pressure is estimated by us at around 1009 mbar, normal for a 30 mph tropical depression, and the direction (SW) it’s going is at slow speed and away from SAL. It’s probably just a matter of minutes or hours before we call this a tropical depression.

97L is still chilling, and we expect that it is likely a tropical depression by now. A ring has formed and thunderstorms and rain are mostly on the bands, but a little bit is visible outside the bands.
DMIN was a non-issue last night for 97L, but it's feeling it at least a bit tonight. Convection dying off on the south and east sides, although it's strong in the northwest.

Quoting 805. HadesGodWyvern:



"tropical wave and a low pressure system" Don't forget the importance of the word "and". It's not just a tropical wave within the invest.


Fair enough Hades, but the poster put forth a stipulation that it's a closed wave deserving of designation. 97L LOOKS better than 96L. Of course not to sound hypocritical to my earlier post of looks =/= cyclone, still. Putting forth a statement like that with not even a shred? At least say on earthschool coming out of the gate, not later when the grill has already been applied.
Quoting 820. Hurricanes101:



Saying we found proof is not proof. Show us the surface winds that show it is closed, don't just say WE found proof.

I don't know what you mean by "surface winds that show it is closed", but i'll try. Also this is also on Windyty:
97L has a Dvorak Intensity of T1.5 from SSD.

96L..just not seeing that as closed. Here's a close up loop through the day and as the sun sets, still looks open to the west like this morning.. Still has that line jutting out of it to the west like it did this morning when ascat was showing that as open or would generally be seen in a system that was open or elongated.
Quoting 826. Tcwx2:

You literally just said "After reanalysis of %u201C96L%u201D, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression." Than came back in the next paragraph and said that you raised the chances of development to 90%. It's possible that it is already a closed low, which would make it a depression, but that cannot be confirmed yet. I do believe that once we get weather stations over the islands reporting then we will have a better feel as to if it is closed or not.


I think you are getting 96L and 97L mixed up. It will take about 5 days for 96L to go over the Islands.
Quoting 826. Tcwx2:

You literally just said "After reanalysis of “96L”, we have concluded that it is a fully tropical depression." Than came back in the next paragraph and said that you raised the chances of development to 90%. It's possible that it is already a closed low, which would make it a depression, but that cannot be confirmed yet. I do believe that once we get weather stations over the islands reporting then we will have a better feel as to if it is closed or not.

I put 2 blog posts and didn't separate. The tropical depression part is later than the 90% part. It has been a closed low for quite some time now, from sources like Nullschool and SPSD (satellite imagery).
Quoting 807. TXCWC:

I don't do blog entries that often but just did a quick one this afternoon on 97L if you care to check it out. Comments/Constructive criticism appreciated. :) Link

Nice graphic. Did you do this?
Quoting 829. NunoLava1998:


I don't know what you mean by "surface winds that show it is closed", but i'll try. Also this is also on Windyty:


If that can be considered closed, it is still elongated and the convection is very disorganized. It would still not match what is needed to be classified by the NHC. They want the thunderstorms to persist, which has not happened in the last 36 hours.
time to get the house in order...
Quoting 751. RitaEvac:

Latest email update from met in Houston states that ridge is to build in Monday and Tuesday then weaken and move north by Thursday and Friday of next week with PWS values surging. Doorway looks to be open in the GOM once system enters it.
This thunderstorm rapidly developed here over my location southeast of Fort Myers and it's producing tropical storm like conditions. It's a wild little storm.
Quoting 829. NunoLava1998:


I don't know what you mean by "surface winds that show it is closed", but i'll try. Also this is also on Windyty:


This is not at all closed..It needs to look like a circle..not a sideways nine with a 1970s hairdo..
From the NHC: 96L does not have the part that is in bold and now with Skye's latest post the bold part is expanded lol.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
839. TXCWC
Thank you and YES. I had a hand in all the graphics on the blog in one way or another. :)
Quoting 833. Chicklit:


Nice graphic. Did you do this?

Still dumping buckets. Should start to see the precipitation totals start to add up if this continues.
Quoting 827. MAweatherboy1:

DMIN was a non-issue last night for 97L, but it's feeling it at least a bit tonight. Convection dying off on the south and east sides, although it's strong in the northwest.



Yes, 97L is under a steady weakening stage. I think it will be the rule tonight and tomorrow for this system.
Quoting 837. Skyepony:


This is not at all closed..It needs to look like a circle..not a sideways nine with a 1970s hairdo..


I see the 9...I'm not gonna ask what a 1970s hairdo looks like...
W. Pac. news : JTWC warning number 6, about TS O6W ("NIDA") just out. Very bad scenario for Hong Kong (China) confirmed, with a strong typhoon forecast to make landfall close to the metropolis.
- JTWC's website Link
- Hong Kong SAR demographics Link
Quoting 841. juracanpr1:


Yes, 97L is under a steady weakening stage. I think it will be the rule tonight and tomorrow for this system.

I wouldn't say 97L is "weakening", it is just losing some convection due to Dmin. Maximum sustained winds actually increased from 30 to 35 mph today. This system may take some time to develop since conditions in the eastern Caribbean are not favorable.
Although I do have a question for NunoLava, you said "my blog". Can I (or WU as whole) have a link since you're not referencing any blog on WU?

Is 97L going to run into a penetrable wrecking ball of shear and then strengthen on the other side?

Quoting 841. juracanpr1:


Yes, 97L is under a steady weakening stage. I think it will be the rule tonight and tomorrow for this system.

I did not say it was weakening.

However, it's possible tonight will be a tough one for it, as it will begin to enter the Caribbean and feel the trades there. CIMSS maps indicate little to no improvement in low level vorticity today, so it's much more bark than bite. If it starts struggling with convection, which I have a suspicion it might, it won't have much of anything going for it. The next 48 hours will be about survival for it, and whether there's enough left to take advantage of more favorable conditions farther west. It's not going to be a smooth/fast process.
96L irrelevant.Back to 97L
Quoting 838. Hurricanes101:

From the NHC: 96L does not have the part that is in bold and now with Skye's latest post the bold part is expanded lol.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Before it was more organized and was much less elongated, so now it's pretty much a invest again.
Quoting 827. MAweatherboy1:

DMIN was a non-issue last night for 97L, but it's feeling it at least a bit tonight. Convection dying off on the south and east sides, although it's strong in the northwest.




No doubt the blog will enter a state of depression in a few hours (even though 97L is really no more or less organized than it was this morning).
Big boomers clapping at the OBX. On waterspout lookout. Took photos of the ominous skies but of course they were sideways and I'm lazy.
Quoting 840. Sfloridacat5:

Still dumping buckets. Should start to see the precipitation totals start to add up if this continues.



Is that WU radar? How do you get the image that is not pixilated?
Quoting 846. Chicklit:


Is 97L going to run into a penetrable wrecking ball of shear and then strengthen on the other side?




Nope shear will lift out giving 97L and its protective upper level anticyclone a clear path through
Quoting 852. QueensWreath:



Is that WU radar? How do you get the image that is not pixilated?

Time to advertise WU paying membership features ;-)
97L is gonna be fine tonight with DMIN yeah a little loss in convection but it should be fine and by morning when we are at DMAX it should get even better than today

Quoting 846. Chicklit:


Is 97L going to run into a penetrable wrecking ball of shear and then strengthen on the other side?




So far the wall of shear in the Caribbean has narrowed and moved west in tandem. If that continues, shear should not be an issue.
Quoting 852. QueensWreath:



Is that WU radar? How do you get the image that is not pixilated?


There's an option to smooth the image, its in the settings on the left-hand side.
Quoting 854. 999Ai2016:


Time to advertise WU paying membership features ;-)


I understand. I paid for over 10 years along with having my weather station linked up. Both have gone by the wayside.
I think the 12z GEFS suite has a good handle on the track and intensity of 97L. Development is likely as the storm enters the West Caribbean, with more substantial strengthening likely on the other side of the Yucatan. I certainly would not rule out a hurricane. The overall 500mb pattern favors a northern Mexico landfall, although it's not impossible this could sneak into southern Texas.

RIP Dave Schwartz. My condolences are with the family and friends.
Constantly losing electricity. I've picked up over 2" here at the house and its still pouring. The cell just doesn't want to move.

Good late afternoon

It's 79, feeling like 80, with the high of 87 about noon today. We've had some pretty heavy wind and rain bands come through a few times this afternoon. Seems to be a lull right now.

"* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* From early Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* A strong tropical wave will approach the local islands late
tonight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
spread across the region starting tonight. The most active
period appears to be from early Sunday morning through Sunday
night.

* The potential of flooding rains is high for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands on Sunday. Rainfall totals between 2 and 4
inches with locally higher amounts are possible with this strong
tropical wave. Localized flash flooding and landslides are likely
in areas of persistent heavy rainfall."

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next day or two!

Have a good one

Lindy
Quoting 857. Huracan94:



There's an option to smooth the image, its in the settings on the left-hand side.


Thanks, I will look for that.
Nida is beginning to impact the Philippines. Click pick for loop.


Quoting 857. Huracan94:
There's an option to smooth the image, its in the settings on the left-hand side.

Quoting 858. QueensWreath:
I understand. I paid for over 10 years along with having my weather station linked up. Both have gone by the wayside.

*Blushes*
Oops sorry... I have this "know-it-all" tendency sometimes. :-)
First time I caught lightning on a camera.

I'm trying to embed it but the old code won't work. Might try a new browser.
RIP Dave Schwartz Screw Cancer
06W/N/CYC/MOD
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/75 9495661972619264


The Weather Channel--
It is with great sadness we share the passing of Dave Schwartz. His love of weather will never be forgotten.
Quoting 865. 999Ai2016:



*Blushes*
Oops sorry... I have this "know-it-all" tendency sometimes. :-)


YUP smoothing worked. I dont know why I did not notice that before! Thanks
Quoting 846. Chicklit:


Is 97L going to run into a penetrable wrecking ball of shear and then strengthen on the other side?




I was thinking the same thing. While the ULL over the bahamas/cuba is shifting towards the west, 97L is heading west a good deal FASTER then the shear is retrograding. The convection out in front of 97L right now is about to run smack into that wall of wind shear. If 97L doesn't slow down drastically in the next 24-36 hours, I wouldn't be surprised if the Caribbean graveyard claims another victim and 97L degrades into an open wave. JMHO
Quoting 869. ringeaux:

https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/7 5 9495661972619264


The Weather Channel--
It is with great sadness we share the passing of Dave Schwartz. His love of weather will never be forgotten.
That's very sad. Dave was long one of my favorites. When he announced this past winter that he wasagain (still?) battling cancer, I was very saddened, as I knew he had been fighting it for some time but believed it had gone back into remission. The world or weather will miss him.

(You can read of Dave's battle in his own words here.)

Quoting 869. ringeaux:

https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/7 5 9495661972619264


The Weather Channel--
It is with great sadness we share the passing of Dave Schwartz. His love of weather will never be forgotten.

What a brave man to show his battle to the world. I deeply admired him for that.

The Weather Channel management must be a fine bunch of folks.
If anyone knows a new embed code or can see the video, let me know (mail I guess to stay on topic). But at any rate [Link].

97L gathering more thunderstorms towards its center.

Quoting 867. Camerooski:

RIP Dave Schwartz Screw Cancer


Screw 2016!
876. MahFL
Dave Schwartz of TWC has passed away :(.
Quoting 853. wunderkidcayman:



Nope shear will lift out giving 97L and its protective upper level anticyclone a clear path through

still has a surviving anticyclone energy pack
It is sad to hear that Dave Schwartz from TWC had died today with a battle with cancer, he was a very good weatherman on there.
I remember tuning into TWC late at night during summer months when school was out just to watch Dave, loved watching and listening to him. I learned a lot from that guy about weather growing up as a teenager.

Quoting 867. Camerooski:

RIP Dave Schwartz Screw Cancer
I saw him on TWC recently and he didn't look right to me. His color was off, a yellowish hue. I saw the post today and was stunned. He was one of the originals and one of many who sparked my interest in wx. RIP
Quoting 879. Climate175:

It is sad to hear that Dave Schwartz from TWC had died today with a battle with cancer, he was a very good weatherman on there.

I remember writing him at TWC and he sent me an autograph photo of him. He was a really nice guy and you could tell he had fun at his job!

Slightly weaker and slightly father south.
Only really knew Dave for his second stint at TWC, seeing as how I'm only 17, but I enjoyed every moment of his screen time. Definitely the charismatic weather man others should try to be
Quoting 834. Hurricanes101:


Yep, 96L is slowly dying
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL STORM CARINA
5:00 AM PhST July 31 2016
======================
"CARINA" has slightly intensified and now poses a threat to Isabela-Cagayan area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Carina [NIDA} (991 hPa) located at 16.9N, 123.9E or 205 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gustiness up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2

Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters.


Luzon Region
-----------------
1. Isabela
2. Ilocos Norte
3. Apayao
4. Kalinga
5. Abra
6. Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1

Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
Light damage to medium to high risk structures
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
-----------------
1. Ifugao
2. Benguet
3. Ilocos Sur
4. La Union
5. Mt. Province
6. Nueva Vizcaya
7. Quirino
8. Aurora

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fisherfolk are alerted against rough to very rough seas over the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon.

Areas under TCWS #1 and #2, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, the rest of Cagayan Valley and the provinces of Benguet and Camarines Norte are alerted against moderate to heavy rains which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
Quoting 879. Climate175:

It is sad to hear that Dave Schwartz from TWC had died today with a battle with cancer, he was a very good weatherman on there.


We all have cancer flags built in our genetic signature. I hope none of us get a 'green flag' for these cancer cells to race through our bodies and cut our lives short and deny our loved ones our existence in their lives.. Health Care is making strides in advancing our battle against this dreaded disease. God bless these scientists advanicng the ability to find the cures for this disease. Sorry for this off topic statement.
Quoting 887. Adam2001:


Yep, 96L is slowly dying

Absorbed by the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
Don't watch much TWC, and can't at all at home because Verizon Fios doesn't carry it, but from what I saw of Dave Schwartz he always seemed like a great guy with a passion for weather. He will be missed!
892. vis0
Quoting 758. washingtonian115:

97L looks to be on a one way ticket to Mexico.Private ridge will make sure of that.
Capitan Caliente tienes otra opinion ...(muy loosely translated:: 97L might prefer warm waters versus scraping its atmospheric aye aye aye on some mountain peaks.

 But since sar2401s 8Ball in not in service and Grothar Kreeezs-ztahll ball is OOS till Gothar finishes ¿boarding neighbors homes? its uh all up in the air.
Heads up in the Naples, Marco Island area. A very mean looking storm moving into that location.
Quoting 884. RitaEvac:

A Message From Dave Schwartz on World Cancer Day
This should be bumped all day ... an amazing spirit.
Quoting 866. win1gamegiantsplease:

First time I caught lightning on a camera.

I'm trying to embed it but the old code won't work. Might try a new browser.



check your email for a tool that may work for your issue.
Either the blog isn't working or everyone has left because the system looks like it will landfall in the Yucatan and then Mexico.
Edit - looks like the site is working fine. I guess now that there is less of a threat to the U.S., a lot of people aren't posting this evening?

897. SLU
Quoting 874. win1gamegiantsplease:

If anyone knows a new embed code or can see the video, let me know (mail I guess to stay on topic). But at any rate [Link].

97L gathering more thunderstorms towards its center.




Correct. The system has become better organised today if not, the normally conservative NHC wouldn't have increased development chances. Right now the system is experiencing DMIN and it is perfectly normal for developing systems to shed some skin at this time of day. However, we can already see hot towers blowing up near the "center" which should be a harbinger of a night of impressive convection development with the system sitting over 29 degree Celsius water temps and a potent anti-cyclone parked on top of it. There is enough upper level divergence so allow for the system to acquire more thunderstorms tonight. Overall, this is one of the healthiest tropical waves to reach the Eastern Caribbean in at least 2 to 3 years.


Quoting 896. Sfloridacat5:

Either the blog isn't working or everyone has left because the system looks like it will landfall in the Yucatan and then Mexico.


You didn't hear what happened.
Quoting 897. SLU:



Correct. The system has become better organised today if not, the normally conservative NHC wouldn't have increased development chances. Right now the system is experiencing DMIN and it is perfectly normal for developing systems to shed some skin at this time of day. However, we can already see hot towers blowing up near the "center" which should be a harbinger of a night of impressive convection development with the system sitting over 29 degree Celsius water temps and a potent anti-cyclone parked on top of it. There is enough upper level divergence so allow for the system to acquire more thunderstorms tonight. Overall, this is one of the healthiest tropical waves to reach the Eastern Caribbean in at least 2 to 3 years.





Agreed and agreed
Quoting 898. HurricaneAndre:

You didn't hear what happened.


?
Dave Schwartz ?
Loosing interest in 97L already because I know how this will go.It'll be the same as years before only with a different name.Wake me up when a storm does something different.R.I.P Dave from TWC.He was one of the O.G's at the station that was still left.Cancer sucks so bad.
RIP Dave Schwartz. Watched you many a time . Very Enjoyable.
if west winds 10 mph+ show up in the islands late night we got a depression. see you in the morning
904. ackee
Quoting 897. SLU:



Correct. The system has become better organised today if not, the normally conservative NHC wouldn't have increased development chances. Right now the system is experiencing DMIN and it is perfectly normal for developing systems to shed some skin at this time of day. However, we can already see hot towers blowing up near the "center" which should be a harbinger of a night of impressive convection development with the system sitting over 29 degree Celsius water temps and a potent anti-cyclone parked on top of it. There is enough upper level divergence so allow for the system to acquire more thunderstorms tonight. Overall, this is one of the healthiest tropical waves to reach the Eastern Caribbean in at least 2 to 3 years.



agreed
905. beell
The old wive's tail or general rule about weak=west, strong=north may not apply to 97L IF it blows up in intensity W of 80W. And it just might reach a strong CAT 1 status before making landfall over some part of the southern Yucatan. Mid latitude westerlies are mostly zonal and in their mid-summer home across the northern tier. No deep digging trough on the horizon.

The GFS develops an upper level low over TX this week-with corresponding down-stream upper level ridging being reinforced over the southeastern US and the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the gulf would be closed to a strong storm.
If 97L was heading north of the Islands with Florida or the East Coast of the U.S. in the Cone this blog would be crazy with activity.
Not sure why the usual notification here in the comments field isn't working, but I've just posted a new entry...

Starting to slide back into a near normal state. Normal is 95/65 and no 100's forecast...
910. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA/PSU
Observe which area around 97L seems to be bending from its foward force

image host
Quoting 900. Sfloridacat5:



?
Dave Schwartz ?
Right.
Quoting 902. unknowncomic:

RIP Dave Schwartz. Watched you many a time . Very Enjoyable.
As a weather lover, watched him for many years, love his style, diction and professionalism . The last time I saw him, noticed something wasn't right. Didn't know he was a cancer patient, Thanks, Mr. Schwartz, RIP.
Well I guess since everyone is wishcasting I might as well head to Lowes for plywood and Wal-Mart for bread and water. Mobile is gonna get WRECKED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Rotation is obvious in this loop, very surprised with no change in the TWO
Link
My update on 97L. Tell me what you think.

Slowed down?
Intense convection off of the Carolina's too...Spin over the Bahamas..

What a difference having an anti-cyclone makes. 97L with an AC overhead organizing in the face of some obstacles; 96L with no AC overhead-POOF.
On July 31, 1976 I was met-interning at the Utah Division of Water Resources where we sponsored or cost-shared on several cloud seeding programs within Utah. That was a couple hundred miles away and upper-winds were light as the photo shows - a nice symmetrical anvil. But remember Rapid City 1972? I've always wondered. As for warm-rain processes, we get a lot of that here in Key West FL and at close range it is an overwhelming radar signal. It might explain things.
It was nice to meet you at the 40 year anniversary flood event at Sylvandale Ranch. Your blog on the ’76 Big Thompson Flood is spot on. Not only did I experience both of these floods, I have also read the reports you cite in your account. You have captured many important points such as the radar station in Limon and us on the outskirts. I don’t think I ever knew about the fax machine being down. We didn’t have TV in the canyon and no reason to listen to the radio. From our vantage in the canyon that day, only a sliver of the cloud was available for viewing because of the mountains on both sides of us. The sky had a strange color, but it only drizzled below Drake and the sun set through and under the bottom of the cloud, it was monsoon.
It did rain here later and there was an impressive amount of lightening after dark. In the 70’s it was customary for the power to go out if there was any lightening, we lit candles and lamps when it was lost and didn’t think much more about it. I had no reference in my lifetime here for the river rising like it was. I wondered why cars were parking on the highway and flashlights were going up the hillside on our family property. I went to explore and was in the driveway, about 20 feet from the river bank, when I heard and saw the wall of water as it overtook our bridge. The river was swelling at its banks, but holding togethe, and from where I stood, I was actually looking up at the crest in the middle of the channel. The river was illuminated on the inside, by car lights that had not yet shorted out; it was eerie. Likewise, around 4 am, as we stared into the darkness, we saw spotlights on the mountain and thought there was help on the way; then we realized it was trunk heavy cars bobbing down the river, with their lights sweeping the mountainsides. Hissing propane tanks and the smell also mark my memories.
In 2013 our flood event was associated in part with a hurricane that was losing strength off the coast of Baja in the pacific. My question is, was there any hurricane event noted in the pacific in late July 1976? As you said, radar was few and far between, were meteorologists making those connections in ’76? You referenced Hurricane Katrina; did you know that the air evacuation from the 2013 Colorado floods was second only to Katrina?