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The Battle to Draw Down Lake Okeechobee

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2013

After the wettest July ever recorded in Florida, the Army Corps of Engineers is battling to draw down the level of Lake Okeechobee before the September peak of the rainy season. The huge lake represents an important source of fresh water to South Florida, but also poses a grave danger. The 25 - 30'-tall, 143-mile long Herbert Hoover Dike surrounding the lake was built in the 1930s out of gravel, rock, limestone, sand, and shell using old engineering methods. The dike is tall enough that it cannot be overtopped by a storm surge from anything but an extreme hurricane, but the dike is vulnerable to leaking and failure when heavy rains bring high water levels to the lake. The Army Corps of Engineers is scrambling to complete a $300 million upgrade to the dike to reduce the chances of such a failure. However, those repairs are not scheduled to be completed until 2018, and the Corps is warning that the Lake Okeechobee dike is in danger of failure this year should heavy rains from a tropical storm or hurricane raise the lake level and put high stresses on the old dike. A 2011 risk assessment estimated the dike's probable failure rate at every fourteen years. A 2008 Army Corp of Engineers study said this about the vulnerable dike:

"There is limited potential for a dike failure with lake levels as low as 18.5 feet. The likelihood of a failure increases at higher lake levels. At a lake level of 21 feet--a 1-in-100 year flood event--a dike failure would be likely at one or more locations. In the event of a dike failure, waters from Lake Okeechobee would pass through the breach--uncontrollably--and flood adjacent land. Flooding would be severe and warning time would be limited. And with 40,000 people living in the communities protected by the Herbert Hoover Dike, the potential for human suffering and loss of life is significant. Our engineering studies indicate the southern and eastern portions of the dike system are more likely to fail than the northern and western portions of the dike. In general, we would expect a warning time of 24 to 48 hours prior to a dike failure that releases water from the lake; however, under some conditions the warning time might be longer, and under others, a dike failure could occur with no warning."

The city most at risk from a dike failure may be Belle Glade (population 18,000) on the southeast shore. Belle Glade is at 16' elevation. If Lake Okeechobee is at 20' above mean sea level when the dike fails, this implies that at least three feet of water could flood Belle Glade. If a wide section of the dike breaks and there is a Cat 3+ hurricane driving a massive storm surge at the time, then the flood could be much higher. During the 1928 hurricane, which had 130 mph winds while over the lake, the water from the storm surge reached seven feet above ground level in Belle Glade.


Figure 1. Water level of Florida's Lake Okeechobee between January 2012 and August 23, 2013. The SFWMD reported that 2013 had the wettest start to the annual wet season in 45 years, with the district-wide average rainfall for July at 10.36". Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Isaac in late August of 2012 caused a 3.5' rise in lake water levels in six weeks; record rains in July 2013 caused a 3' rise in water levels to 16' in mid-August, just below the record high lake level for that time of year. The Army Corps tries to keep the lake level below 15.5'; the dike surrounding the lake is in danger of failure when the lake level hits 18.5'. As of August 23, 2013, the lake level was 15.6', after hitting a peak of 16.1' early in August. Lake Okeechobee reached an elevation of 18.6' and 18.5'--both 1-in-30-year events--in 1995 and 1998. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 2. Aftermath of the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, showing damage to a cluster of Everglades scientific work stations in Belle Glade. The hurricane killed 2,500 people, mostly near Belle Glade. Image credit: University of Florida, via the historicpalmbeach.com.

The Great 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
The shores of Lake Okeechobee are the site of the second deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history--the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. This mighty hurricane caused catastrophic damage where it struck the Florida coast as a Category 4 storm near Palm Beach, and weakened only slightly to Category 3 strength with 130 mph winds when it passed over Lake Okeechobee. The powerful winds of the hurricane brought a 12' storm surge to the south end of the lake, which overwhelmed the 6' high levees protecting the farm lands to the south. The resulting flood covered an area of hundreds of square miles with water up to 20' deep, and killed at least 2,500 people--mostly black migrant farm workers. A mass grave at the Port Mayaca Cemetery east of Port Mayaca contains the bodies of 1,600 victims of the hurricane. The Herbert Hoover Dike was built in the 1930s around most of Lake Okeechobee in response to this disaster.


Figure 3. When Lake Okeechobee water levels exceed 15.5' above mean sea level, large amounts of lake water are released out of two canals that carry the storm water runoff to the ocean. The western drainage canal flows into the Caloosahtchee Estuary and into the Gulf of Mexico at Fort Myers. The eastern drainage canal flows into the St. Lucie River Estuary and into the Atlantic Ocean near Stuart. High levels of nutrients due to agricultural runoff in the Lake Okeechobee water have been causing toxic algae blooms in the areas marked in green during July and August of 2013.

Lake Okeechobee runoff contributing to toxic algae blooms
Heavy rains that began in early July raised the level of Lake Okeechobee by two feet, to sixteen feet. Torrential rains of 7+ inches from a tropical storm or hurricane are capable of raising the lake level by over three feet in a few weeks; this occurred in 2008, when Tropical Storm Fay took a leisurely romp across Florida, and again in 2012, when Tropical Storm Isaac lumbered past. Under ideal conditions, the Army Corps can only lower the lake at a rate of about 0.4" per day. The Corps has been dumping water out of the lake since May 9, and began dumping water out as fast as it could beginning on July 25, to keep the lake below 15.5'. Had these releases not occurred, the lake would have been two feet higher than it is now. Most of this excess water was sent out Lake Okeechobee's western drainage canal into the Caloosahtchee Estuary, which empties into the Gulf of Mexico at Fort Myers. The Lake Okeechobee water is full of agricultural runoff and laden with fertilizers, and this polluted water, combined with an even greater amount of polluted water coming from local runoff due to heavy rains, caused a toxic red tide bloom in the coastal waters of Fort Myers that is being blamed for a record 133 manatees deaths this year. A lesser amount of Lake Okeechobee water has been sent eastwards into the St. Lucie River, where it drains into the Atlantic Ocean near Stuart through the Indian River Lagoon. A similar level of discharge goes down the C-51 canal in into the estuary by West Palm Beach, the Lake Worth Lagoon. The polluted Lake Okeechobee water, which was also combined with large amounts of polluted local runoff water from heavy rains, has caused havoc in these coastal waters this summer, affecting oyster beds, sea grasses, mangroves, and wildlife. Numerous toxic algae blooms have created lime-green water unsafe for recreation in the Indian River Lagoon, leading to calls by local residents for immediate political action. Temporary relief is at hand, though. On Wednesday, the Corps announced that due to falling lake levels, an easing up of the summer rains, and a forecast for merely average rains over the next week, water releases from then lake would be cut almost in half. A further reduction in flow began on Saturday morning. Governor Rick Scott of Florida announced this week that the state of Florida was committing $40 million to a project to build a reservoir aimed at diverting storm water releases from Lake Okeechobee. However, a press release by a coalition of environmental groups labeled this solution as a "Band-aid", saying "It only addresses a tiny fraction of the sewage, manure, and fertilizer runoff--called ‘nutrient pollution’--that comes from within the St. Lucie watershed, and it does nothing to reduce the nutrient pollution sliming all the other, rivers, springs, lakes and bays all over Florida.”


Figure 4. A toxic algae bloom in the St. Lucie River in Stuart, FL on August 1, 2013. Image credit: Dick Miller.


Figure 5. This photo taken from Martin County Sheriffs Office Air 1 shows thousands of people spelling out “Save Our River” along the Florida shoreline from Stuart to Jensen Beach on August 11, 2013. The people were protesting water pollution due to storm water runoff from Lake Okeechobee and local sources that has caused toxic algae blooms. Source: Martin County Sheriffs Office, via the Martin County Times.

For further reading
Despite repairs, Lake Okeechobee dike remains a danger: August 16, 2013 Miami Herald article.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1978. CybrTeddy:


A) It was scheduled to go out today to TD6.
B) They even had it on the runway per the only set of OBS we got.

My conclusion is there was a technical hiccup that prevented us from gauging the strength of this system.


Yes, and this location in the BOC has commonly seen Tropical Cyclones spin up in a hurry.
Quoting 1969. Bluestorm5:
Typical... look like it'll be hard to get name out of this system now that it's only depression and we don't have recon data to support otherwise. Very annoying we just lost a chance at named storm. And people accuse NHC of padding numbers.
The half of conspiracy theorists who are convinced that the NHC intentionally names storms it shouldn't is in roughly equal proportion to the other half of conspiracy theorists who are convinced that the NHC intentionally does not name storms it should. In this regard, at least, CT types balance each other out pretty well... ;-)
2003. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What happened?

Well, 95L got renumbered to TD6. Of course, our first source of information, the NHC site, doesn't have it yet, but the Navy site was updated immediately. It also appears the plane got to the end of the runway, sat there, and then went back to the hanger. I don't know what the story is with that.
2004. wpb
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Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD





------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Aug-2013 16:58:58 UTC

I'm more concerned about where the recon plane is than I am about whether they call the cyclone Fernand.
2006. sar2401
Quoting seer2012:

Data started at 1745Z and ended at 1754Z.

So taxied out and then back. Was either cancelled or they had a mechanical or sensor problem. Kind of strange either way.
Quoting 1997. seer2012:

Data started at 1745Z and ended at 1754Z.

Consider it about a 2 hr flt. from about 1745Z so anytime now....
2008. will40
Quoting 2003. sar2401:

Well, 95L got renumbered to TD6. Of course, our first source of information, the NHC site, doesn't have it yet, but the Navy site was updated immediately. It also appears the plane got to the end of the runway, sat there, and then went back to the hanger. I don't know what the story is with that.


there was data to show that it did actually take off
2009. beell
All one can say for sure is the data transmitted was before they took off.

Link

At 17:45:00Z (first observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (91°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
At 17:54:30Z (last observation), the observation was 9 miles (14 km) to the E (91°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.

Two sets of lat/lon up on the Tropical Atlantic site.

30.400N 88.917W
30.400N 88.933W

About a mile apart. Both over land at Keesler
Tropical Depression Six



Personal Intensity Forecast
INIT- 35 MPH
6 HRS- 40 MPH
12 HRS- 45 MPH
18 HRS- 50 MPH...LANDFALL
24 HRS- 35 MPH...INLAND
36 HRS- 30 MPH...INLAND
48 HRS- 25 MPH...INLAND
60 HRS- DISSIPATED
2011. LargoFl
hmmmm interesting..IVO makes a u-turn?
What's the exposure of Veracruz airport to winds off the ocean?
Quoting 2005. CosmicEvents:
I'm more concerned about where the recon plane is than I am about whether they call the cyclone Fernand.


I'm sure they're fine. This kind of thing is nothing new for them, hiccups happen.
listen.....there's no way to know right now where these storms are going to go...fish storms maybe not...evac plans maybe yes....be prepared...
2015. LargoFl
2016. wpb
global hawk flight 26 hours on 8/24 dropsonde in area of sol off africa great sol data check there site.
2017. sar2401
Quoting wpb:

So, from that entire mess, did the flight get reset to 2000z...or what?
Quoting 2003. sar2401:

Well, 95L got renumbered to TD6. Of course, our first source of information, the NHC site, doesn't have it yet, but the Navy site was updated immediately. It also appears the plane got to the end of the runway, sat there, and then went back to the hanger. I don't know what the story is with that.


My two cents is someone forgot the mid-afternoon snacks.
06L virtually lost all of its lower-level convergence between 15z and 18z. DMIN could get ugly. Just as a heads up lol.

CIMSS
Impressive low of 77F this morning at Duluth. That's the warmest low temperature ever recorded in the month of August and ties the third warmest of all-time. The previous August monthly record is 75, set on August 11, 1947. The all-time record warm minimum is 79, set on July 13, 1936, when records were taken at the weather bureau downtown (about 600' lower in elevation than the airport).

It's also the warmest low ever recorded since records began at the airport in 1941, beating the previous record of 75 set on August 11, 1947.
2021. LargoFl
Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1238 PM MST SUN AUG 25 2013

CAZ030-032-033-252015-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN
DESERTS-
1238 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN AFFECTING IMPERIAL
COUNTY...EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...RESULTING IN FLOODING OF NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND WASHES...AND
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME STREETS AND HIGHWAYS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...AND
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATES 8 AND 10 IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. ALSO WATCH FOR WATER OVER
ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE MOVING WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX



2022. wpb
good mexico radar td6
if you guys learn too check the nhc site for today fight plan


000
NOUS42 KNHC 251658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SUN 25 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-085


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 26/1200Z
D. 21.0N 97.0W
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$



this is the info has of 1pm today
Quoting 2019. MiamiHurricanes09:
06L virtually lost all of its lower-level convergence between 15z and 18z. DMIN could get ugly. Just as a heads up lol.

CIMSS

Yikes.
Quoting 2023. Tazmanian:
if you guys learn too check the nhc site for today fight plan
That data is for tomorrow Taz.
Quoting 2025. MiamiHurricanes09:
That data is for tomorrow Taz.



no its not
2027. will40
Quoting 2023. Tazmanian:
if you guys learn too check the nhc site for today fight plan


000
NOUS42 KNHC 251658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SUN 25 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-085


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 26/1200Z
D. 21.0N 97.0W
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$



this is the info has of 1pm today


the plan and it actually hapening are 2 entirely different things
The Northern GOM blob's moisture is drying up on the western edge trying to push into Texas...annoying
2029. will40
Quoting 2026. Tazmanian:



no its not


yes see the 26th in the plan?
Quoting 2026. Tazmanian:



no its not
You highlighted it yourself.

VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013

Today's August 25th.
2031. LargoFl
Quoting 2025. MiamiHurricanes09:
That data is for tomorrow Taz.
'Zackly...
Quoting 2026. Tazmanian:



no its not


Yes it is:

VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013

Today is the 25th
Quoting 1984. sar2401:

I can't really tell from the information on the graphic. Another blogger thought it was for 95L (pre-Chantal). It would be nice if they at least put a date on that durned thing


Check out the first and third image Patrap posted from the pouch site. My image was simply meant to show the area i'm expecting the system to develop down the road with the GFS ensembles showing an area of lower pressures east of the islands. As far as track goes,(BTW people on here really need to look at more then just a single model run) it's going to be about timing as is usually the case. It could go way out to sea or be a potential threat to land, our models just aren't reliable enough in that time frame.


2035. beell
And as a reminder, the NHC will make the call on 95L.
TD, TS, or otherwise. So far, nada...
Quoting 2030. MiamiHurricanes09:
You highlighted it yourself.

VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013

Today's August 25th.
Ironically, this doesn't invalidate Taz's comment at all... where's the plan for TODAY? Do you see one?
Quoting 2010. TylerStanfield:
Tropical Depression Six



Personal Intensity Forecast
INIT- 35 MPH
6 HRS- 40 MPH
12 HRS- 45 MPH
18 HRS- 50 MPH...LANDFALL
24 HRS- 35 MPH...INLAND
36 HRS- 30 MPH...INLAND
48 HRS- 25 MPH...INLAND
60 HRS- DISSIPATED


They are forecasting 50mph at peak. That goes in line with what I said yesterday a 45kt peak would not surprise me. Interesting the usually conservative NHC going with that thinking. Probably think its stronger than a TD but waiting on Recon once they fix their technical issues. This will be good to track till our future system by Africa starts going.
Quoting 2035. beell:
And as a reminder, the NHC will make the call on 95L.
TD, TS, or otherwise. So far, nada...

Tropical Depression Six.
Quoting 2036. BahaHurican:
Ironically, this doesn't invalidate Taz's comment at all... where's the plan for TODAY? Do you see one?
Here.

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
2041. GatorWX
Almost 4, they're right on time. By the looks of it, finished mowing right on time!

Quoting 2037. Hurricanes305:


They are forecasting 50mph at peak. That goes in line with what I said yesterday a 45kt peak would not surprise me. Interesting the usually conservative NHC going with that thinking. Probably think its stronger than a TD but waiting on Recon once they fix their technical issues. This will be good to track till our future system by Africa starts going.

Thats my Intensity Forecast... Just so you know.
Quoting 2033. nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes it is:

VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013

Today is the 25th
WAS there a plan out there for the 25th? I got here late, so didn't see it if it was posted earlier...

EDIT... MiamiHurricanes09 got it for me...
Quoting 2040. MiamiHurricanes09:
Here.

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
Just asked about this... TYVM...
Quoting 2043. BahaHurican:
WAS there a plan out there for the 25th? I got here late, so didn't see it if it was posted earlier...


000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
Quoting 2042. TylerStanfield:

Thats my Intensity Forecast... Just so you know.


Though it was official My bad!!
Quoting 2040. MiamiHurricanes09:
Here.

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013



000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.



that info above is old
2048. beell
Quoting 2038. TylerStanfield:

Tropical Depression Six.


LOL!
Quoting 2035. beell:
And as a reminder, the NHC will make the call on 95L.
TD, TS, or otherwise. So far, nada...


The NAVY site is always the first source when a system is upgraded or named, the NHC just follows with their 6 hour updates. NAVY has it as a TD so the official NHC site will have it within' the hour.
Do we have TD 6?
2051. txjac
Quoting 2028. brazocane:
The Northern GOM blob's moisture is drying up on the western edge trying to push into Texas...annoying


Yea ...that big rain I was talking about lasted about fifteen minutes ...however that's better than my "normal" five minute showers we usually get.
Keeping positive that there is more on the way
Quoting 2047. Tazmanian:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.



that info above is old


For Today (text issued yesterday)
For Tomorrow (text issued today)
As close as TD 6 is to land, the NHC might not wait till 5.
Do you guys really forget how this works?

The recon plan for the day always comes out the day before.

And the NHC almost always waits until the official advisory time to upgrade systems, it always comes through ATCF, this is nothing unusual.
My Google Earth just refreshed.
Recon Updated...? Still on the Runway.
Quoting 2047. Tazmanian:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.



that info above is old


Look at the time it's valid for.
Quoting 2052. nrtiwlnvragn:


For Today (text issued yesterday)
For Tomorrow (text issued today)



right



000
NOUS42 KNHC 241538
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 24 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-084 CORRECTION (TCPOD NUMBER)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 25/1715Z
D. 20.0N 95.5W
E. 25/1900Z TO 26/0000Z
F. SFC TO 5,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING
24/1100Z TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 10N-22N AND 26W-36W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 26 HRS.


this info above is old




NOUS42 KNHC 251658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SUN 25 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1500Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 26/1200Z
D. 21.0N 97.0W
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.




this info that came out today is new
Quoting 2055. TylerStanfield:
My Google Earth just refreshed.
Recon Updated...? Still on the Runway.


Maybe now they are leaving for real? haha
2059. beell
Quoting 2049. hurricaneben:


The NAVY site is always the first source when a system is upgraded or named, the NHC just follows with their 6 hour updates. NAVY has it as a TD so the official NHC site will have it within' the hour.


Usually true. But not always.
Quoting 2053. JrWeathermanFL:
As close as TD 6 is to land, the NHC might not wait till 5.

It's slowing down, and has about 12-18 Hours left over water, and they will likely post Watches and/or Warnings up so They would be Issuing Advisories every 3 Hours.
Quoting 2049. hurricaneben:


The NAVY site is always the first source when a system is upgraded or named, the NHC just follows with their 6 hour updates. NAVY has it as a TD so the official NHC site will have it within' the hour.


Not correct


General tc_info information page

2) Include the capability to view the appropriate warning and track forecasts relevant to the times of the satellite data sets. Official warning information derived from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system will be used and simply bent-piped from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC, Pearl Harbor, HI), Naval Maritime Forecast Center (NMFC, Pearl Harbor, HI), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC, Honolulu, HI), or the National Hurricane Center (NHC, Miami, FL).


Navy only designates in the Western Pacific.
Quoting 2051. txjac:


Yea ...that big rain I was talking about lasted about fifteen minutes ...however that's better than my "normal" five minute showers we usually get.
Keeping positive that there is more on the way


lets hope this comes true:

WE`LL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK IN MOST
PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. COVERAGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND INLAND INTO THE
SW HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Ok, stop responding to Taz, let him believe what he wants lol.
2064. txjac
Quoting 2062. brazocane:


lets hope this comes true:

WE`LL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK IN MOST
PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. COVERAGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND INLAND INTO THE
SW HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX


Thanks for posting ...the wait continues!
Quoting 2063. MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok, stop responding to Taz, let him believe what he wants lol.



your right whats move on too TD sixs
Quoting 2055. TylerStanfield:
My Google Earth just refreshed.
Recon Updated...? Still on the Runway.

Still Nothing from Recon...
I Don't Know.
Ok let's do this again...renumber on plane to AF 309 and in the air enroute

000
URNT15 KNHC 251954
AF309 01BBA INVEST HDOB 01 20130825
194630 3024N 08855W 0201 ///// 0191 +329 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194700 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +327 +293 360000 000 /// /// 23
194730 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +317 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194800 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +304 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194830 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194900 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194930 3024N 08856W 0203 ///// 0192 +290 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195000 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// //// +284 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195030 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0189 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195100 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0192 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195130 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// //// +275 //// 085004 010 /// /// 29
195200 3025N 08855W 0073 00081 //// +261 //// 085012 015 /// /// 05
195230 3026N 08854W 9773 00370 //// +235 //// 088013 015 /// /// 05
195300 3027N 08853W 9492 00620 //// +212 //// 083013 014 /// /// 05
195330 3026N 08852W 9150 00949 //// +195 //// 095014 015 /// /// 05
195400 3024N 08852W 8840 01245 //// +171 //// 098016 018 /// /// 05
195430 3023N 08853W 8611 01475 //// +161 //// 092018 019 /// /// 05
195500 3022N 08853W 8362 01725 //// +139 //// 093021 023 /// /// 05
195530 3020N 08854W 8132 01960 //// +130 //// 093024 026 /// /// 05
195600 3019N 08855W 7931 02177 //// +126 //// 093025 026 025 000 01
$$
2068. will40
Quoting 2066. TylerStanfield:

Still Nothing from Recon...
I Don't Know.


they flew 9 miles out into the Gulf then returned to base it look like
Quoting 1996. TylerStanfield:

That's just one run. The two runs prior showed a Storm riding up the East coast, heading for the Northeast/Canadian Maritime... Anything is possible for this storm at this point in time.
First we have to get the system to develop.
Dont worry if they develop they will go out to sea for sure the atlantic ridge has been weakening and this time of year it will continue to weaken
Quoting 2067. Tropicsweatherpr:
Ok let's do this again...renumber on plane to AF 309 and in the air enroute

000
URNT15 KNHC 251954
AF309 01BBA INVEST HDOB 01 20130825
194630 3024N 08855W 0201 ///// 0191 +329 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194700 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +327 +293 360000 000 /// /// 23
194730 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +317 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194800 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +304 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194830 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194900 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194930 3024N 08856W 0203 ///// 0192 +290 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195000 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// //// +284 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195030 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0189 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195100 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0192 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195130 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// //// +275 //// 085004 010 /// /// 29
195200 3025N 08855W 0073 00081 //// +261 //// 085012 015 /// /// 05
195230 3026N 08854W 9773 00370 //// +235 //// 088013 015 /// /// 05
195300 3027N 08853W 9492 00620 //// +212 //// 083013 014 /// /// 05
195330 3026N 08852W 9150 00949 //// +195 //// 095014 015 /// /// 05
195400 3024N 08852W 8840 01245 //// +171 //// 098016 018 /// /// 05
195430 3023N 08853W 8611 01475 //// +161 //// 092018 019 /// /// 05
195500 3022N 08853W 8362 01725 //// +139 //// 093021 023 /// /// 05
195530 3020N 08854W 8132 01960 //// +130 //// 093024 026 /// /// 05
195600 3019N 08855W 7931 02177 //// +126 //// 093025 026 025 000 01
$$

Ok! So I wasn't Seeing things...
2071. JLPR2


06L... at last!
Quoting 2068. will40:


they flew 9 miles out into the Gulf then returned to base it look like


The runway is just that distance from Gulfport

At 17:45:00Z (first observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (91) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
At 17:54:30Z (last observation), the observation was 9 miles (14 km) to the E (91) from Gulfport, MS, USA.

Never moves over the 9 1/2 minutes

Previous 9 1/2 minutes also

At 17:35:00Z (first observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (91) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
At 17:44:30Z (last observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (91) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
the atlantic ridge will remain very weak and far east and should recurve the next 4 ro 5 storms through maybe into october
Recon is in the air. Finally.
60% chance of heay rain all day and so far not a drop . that doesnt surprise me
Quoting 2073. JENROBIN:
the atlantic ridge will remain very weak and far east and should recurve the next 4 ro 5 storms through maybe into october


What evidence you have about that?
How long has the plane been on the runway? You guys may not know there is a road at Keesler that runs next too the runway that has to be clear before they can take off. They have a sign that usually flashes red lights( I believe) to keep folks from crossing. If that malfunctions then they have to get a road block going. Maybe that's the delay . Just a thought.
Quoting 2076. Tropicsweatherpr:


What evidence you have about that?
look at all the maps that people are showing on here going out 3 weeks thats what i see anyways
2080. Gearsts
Quoting 2076. Tropicsweatherpr:


What evidence you have about that?
ignore
Time: 19:56:00Z
Coordinates: 30.3167N 88.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 793.1 mb (~ 23.42 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,177 meters (~ 7,142 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 93° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: 12.6°C* (~ 54.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)


Working on Google Earth now.
not on navy site I use so don't know whats going on here maybe a delay



Atlantic


green ball95L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball09E.IVO



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball91W.INVEST


green ball01C.PEWA



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
Quoting 2076. Tropicsweatherpr:


What evidence you have about that?
if you look each week at the maps youll see that since august 1st each week the ridge gas moved further east away from the conus and still moving east
Quoting 2082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not on navy site I use so don't know whats going on here maybe a delay



Atlantic


green ball95L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball09E.IVO



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball91W.INVEST


green ball01C.PEWA



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere



what navy site you uesing keep?
2085. Gearsts
Quoting 2084. Tazmanian:



what navy site you uesing keep?


FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
Good afternoon. Looks like 95L/06L had a good day in the BOC. Not sure if it will be strong enough to get named though since it will likely struggle badly at DMIN due to its loss of convergence. We'll see what recon finds.

Quoting 2071. JLPR2:


06L... at last!

Is the center in that faint circle within the convection? The circle looks like a small, cloud covered eye. Barely noticable. Probably not an eye, but if it's the center it's really tight.
2090. will40
Quoting 2067. Tropicsweatherpr:
Ok let's do this again...renumber on plane to AF 309 and in the air enroute

000
URNT15 KNHC 251954
AF309 01BBA INVEST HDOB 01 20130825
194630 3024N 08855W 0201 ///// 0191 +329 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194700 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +327 +293 360000 000 /// /// 23
194730 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +317 +294 360000 000 /// /// 23
194800 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0191 +304 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194830 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194900 3024N 08855W 0203 ///// 0192 +299 +295 360000 000 /// /// 23
194930 3024N 08856W 0203 ///// 0192 +290 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195000 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// //// +284 //// 360000 000 /// /// 25
195030 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0189 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195100 3024N 08856W 0201 ///// 0192 +294 +294 360000 000 /// /// 25
195130 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// //// +275 //// 085004 010 /// /// 29
195200 3025N 08855W 0073 00081 //// +261 //// 085012 015 /// /// 05
195230 3026N 08854W 9773 00370 //// +235 //// 088013 015 /// /// 05
195300 3027N 08853W 9492 00620 //// +212 //// 083013 014 /// /// 05
195330 3026N 08852W 9150 00949 //// +195 //// 095014 015 /// /// 05
195400 3024N 08852W 8840 01245 //// +171 //// 098016 018 /// /// 05
195430 3023N 08853W 8611 01475 //// +161 //// 092018 019 /// /// 05
195500 3022N 08853W 8362 01725 //// +139 //// 093021 023 /// /// 05
195530 3020N 08854W 8132 01960 //// +130 //// 093024 026 /// /// 05
195600 3019N 08855W 7931 02177 //// +126 //// 093025 026 025 000 01
$$


yes they are updating on atlantic site now
Quoting 2086. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page



hmmm



how can you get on there but a few of us cant the FNMOC site is down for me
2092. txjac
RitaEvac, AtHome ...if you guys are on and lurking are you getting rain?
2093. JLPR2
Quoting 2082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not on navy site I use so don't know whats going on here maybe a delay



Atlantic


green ball95L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball09E.IVO



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball91W.INVEST


green ball01C.PEWA



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere


Ah yes, you have to click on one of the invests that is active or click all.
No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎August ‎25, ‎2013, ‏‎4:15:01 PM | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Sun, 25 Aug 2013 20:15:01 GMT
Quoting 2093. JLPR2:


Ah yes, you have to click on one of the invests that is active or click all.


Can you post a updated image of African Wave to see how it looks?
think recon flies into the area off Texas first? lol
2097. Gearsts
28storms.Link
2098. Gearsts
Quoting 2095. Tropicsweatherpr:


Can you post a updated image of African Wave to see how it looks?
look at post 1953,,, that map shows the atlantic ridge way eroded to the east of the conus in 6 days. so the merry go round will continue for anything that comes across from africa and out to sea
2100. JLPR2
Quoting 2095. Tropicsweatherpr:


Can you post a updated image of African Wave to see how it looks?


At the moment it is unimpressive.

Quoting 1953. IceCoast:



Looks as if that is for Pouch 25L which just came off the coast of Africa this morning. Several reliable models develop it east of the islands around 50- 55W. I'm saying it will be our first Hurricane of the season(Ya, I'm calling it already) to start off an active September in the MDR as the MJO swings through, with plenty of Twaves to take advantage.

Link for pouch site.
Link

Day 6-10 MSLP 6z GFS Ens.



see on this map the atlantic ridge is was far away from the conus
Still a long ways out; the circulation is somewhere around 20N;95W.

201600 2913N 09004W 3995 07634 0441 -165 //// 139006 007 /// /// 05
this is all tropical active systems as of now nothing showing for atlantic

Tropical Warning Information


Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Aug 25, 2013.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN22
Issued at 25/0130Z

TCFA Text
TCFA Graphic
JMV 3.0 Data
Google Earth Graphic Overlay
Multispectral Satellite Imagery
Satellite Fix Bulletin

* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Aug 25, 2013.



Tropical Depression 01C (Pewa) Warning #35 Final Warning
Issued at 25/0300Z

TC Warning Text
TC Warning Graphic
JMV 3.0 Data
Google Earth Graphic Overlay
Multispectral Satellite Imagery
Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Depression 09E (Ivo) Warning #13
Issued at 25/1600Z
TC Warning Text
TC Warning Graphic
JMV 3.0 Data
Google Earth Graphic Overlay


Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Aug 25, 2013.
No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.
2105. hydrus
Quoting 2088. MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Looks like 95L/06L had a good day in the BOC. Not sure if it will be strong enough to get named though since it will likely struggle badly at DMIN due to its loss of convergence. We'll see what recon finds.

Thats got to be a cat-3.
I noticed something in the HURDAT database. Hurricane Sandy is given a pressure of 942 mb at landfall in the June 2013 revision. Were there any pressure readings found to support this? Originally Sandy had a landfalling pressure of 945 mb attributed to her based on a 945.5 mb reading at a pier in Atlantic City. Does anyone know why the landfalling pressure was revised downward?

Look at the bottom of the link.
cam someone post the gfs 360hr run
Quoting 2100. JLPR2:


At the moment it is unimpressive.



Is not expected to develop for a few days and that means more westbound.
Well Recon....Better late than never.
2110. mrmombq
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SUN AUG 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON-MON NIGHT AND PROMISES TO BRING A CLOUDY
AND SHOWERY DAY TOMORROW TO MOST PLACES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...FLOODING
THREAT DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF
SPECIAL PRODUCTS. TROPICAL WAVE EXITS THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO
DAMPEN OUT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. OVERALL...EXPECT A TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH DAY WITH RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO EXIT THE AFRICAN CONTINENT TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REACH 55W BY 12Z SUN SEP 01.
Quoting 2107. JENROBIN:
cam someone post the gfs 360hr run


You could go and look for yourself. If you are worried about a GFS run that far out you have other concerns to take care of.
Quoting 2092. txjac:
RitaEvac, AtHome ...if you guys are on and lurking are you getting rain?


I'm thinking if they are getting rain, they're running around in the middle of it, celebrating! ;)

Lindy
Quoting 2112. VirginIslandsVisitor:


I'm thinking if they are getting rain, they're outside, running around in the middle of it, celebrating! ;)

Lindy
2114. mrmombq
TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO EXIT THE AFRICAN CONTINENT TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REACH 55W BY 12Z SUN SEP 01.

About time Hurricane season starts.
Quoting 2111. DavidHOUTX:


You could go and look for yourself. If you are worried about a GFS run that far out you have other concerns to take care of.
well the 224 run shows the atlantic ridge very far away from the conus and i wanted to see if it is still far away on the 360 run as well
2116. Levi32
Quoting 2059. beell:


Usually true. But not always.


Once ATCF shows something, it is the official word from the NHC. ATCF is the NHC. If there is a difference between the ATCF and NHC websites at advisory time, it is only because the state of the system has changed during those few hours. The NHC has declared 95L a tropical cyclone. It simply remains to be seen at what strength, pending aircraft data.
2117. JLPR2
2118. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:14Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 03

20:16:00Z 29.217N 90.067W 399.5 mb
(~ 11.80 inHg) 7,634 meters
(~ 25,046 feet) - 441 meters
(~ 1,447 feet) From 139° at 6 knots
(From the SE at ~ 6.9 mph) -16.5°C*
(~ 2.3°F*) -* 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:06:30Z (first observation), the observation was 34 miles (55 km) to the ESE (108°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
There was a small 2.9 earthquake in Western NC near Boone, but I never felt it here in Asheville.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ se082513b#summary
2120. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:24Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 04

20:26:00Z 28.517N 90.733W 392.6 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,757 meters
(~ 25,449 feet) - 439 meters
(~ 1,440 feet) From 258° at 3 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 3.4 mph) -16.9°C
(~ 1.6°F) -17.4°C
(~ 0.7°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 22 knots*
(~ 25.3 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 16.5 knots* (~ 19.0 mph*)
550.0%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 20:16:30Z (first observation), the observation was 55 miles (88 km) to the S (183°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Quoting 2119. Bluestorm5:
There was a small 2.9 earthquake in Western NC near Boone, but I never felt it.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ se082513b#summary
by the college?
2122. SLU
Strong vorticity near 7n 16w

Quoting 2116. Levi32:


Once ATCF shows something, it is the official word from the NHC. ATCF is the NHC. If there is a difference between the ATCF and NHC websites at advisory time, it is only because the state of the system has changed during those few hours. The NHC has declared 95L a tropical cyclone. It simply remains to be seen at what strength, pending aircraft data.


ATCF is not official, at least according to ATCF

Users are also cautioned that the data in these files are subject to
frequent revisions and can differ from information issued in official NHC
products.
Quoting 2117. JLPR2:
TD6 is born.
Blog will be in ruins if they don't get the precious 06L within the next 30 minutes.
2126. Patrap
Yeah, about 2 hours ago.
Quoting 2106. BaltimoreBrian:
I noticed something in the HURDAT database. Hurricane Sandy is given a pressure of 942 mb at landfall in the June 2013 revision. Were there any pressure readings found to support this? Originally Sandy had a landfalling pressure of 945 mb attributed to her based on a 945.5 mb reading at a pier in Atlantic City. Does anyone know why the landfalling pressure was revised downward?

Look at the bottom of the link.


The asterisk denotes that the pressure recorded was taken while the storm was producing hurricane force winds while still a hurricane. In other words, the measurement is from the morning of October 29 when a still tropical Sandy was producing hurricane force winds on Great Gull Island, NY.
Quoting 2121. JENROBIN:
by the college?
It was between Blowing Rock and Boone. I never felt it in Asheville.
Quoting 2125. MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog will be in ruins if they don't get the precious 06L within the next 30 minutes.

I think it was last year or the year before, they did a renumber and took it back.
Quoting 2125. MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog will be in ruins if they don't get the precious 06L within the next 30 minutes.
omg i totally agree... its horrible already not knowing..im not leaving my puter for a second
Quoting 2116. Levi32:


Once ATCF shows something, it is the official word from the NHC. ATCF is the NHC. If there is a difference between the ATCF and NHC websites at advisory time, it is only because the state of the system has changed during those few hours. The NHC has declared 95L a tropical cyclone. It simply remains to be seen at what strength, pending aircraft data.
tidbit later tonight?
Quoting 2122. SLU:
Strong vorticity near 7n 16w



Quite the disorganized wave.
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...IVO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A
RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND
IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
35 mph Tropical Depression 6 per NHC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Ts strength is forecasted
Quoting 2129. nrtiwlnvragn:

I think it was last year or the year before, they did a renumber and took it back.
I remember it happened, but I can't put my finger in which storm it was LOL. I think it was in the Gulf lol.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
2140. will40
TD 6 on NHC site
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT
THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
06L

Quoting 2141. Civicane49:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT
THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
wow are the winds up to 35mph already?
2144. beell
It's raining here. Time to set on the front porch.
I just wasted 2 hrs, lol.
Tropical Depression Six
Tropical Depression Six Forecast Track...
Umm What?
2147. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:34Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 05


20:36:00Z 27.817N 91.367W 392.1 mb
(~ 11.58 inHg) 7,754 meters
(~ 25,440 feet) - 430 meters
(~ 1,411 feet) From 229° at 6 knots
(From the SW at ~ 6.9 mph) -10.5°C
(~ 13.1°F) -10.5°C
(~ 13.1°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 750.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:26:30Z (first observation), the observation was 113 miles (181 km) to the SSW (202°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Quoting 2147. Patrap:
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:34Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 05


20:36:00Z 27.817N 91.367W 392.1 mb
(~ 11.58 inHg) 7,754 meters
(~ 25,440 feet) - 430 meters
(~ 1,411 feet) From 229° at 6 knots
(From the SW at ~ 6.9 mph) -10.5°C
(~ 13.1°F) -10.5°C
(~ 13.1°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 750.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:26:30Z (first observation), the observation was 113 miles (181 km) to the SSW (202°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
That's TS winds.
2149. will40
Quoting 2146. TylerStanfield:
Tropical Depression Six Forecast Track...
Umm What?


images are not ready yet
Quoting 2129. nrtiwlnvragn:

I think it was last year or the year before, they did a renumber and took it back.


I remember that. I think people got so upset they stopped logging on for a week.
2151. Gearsts
I have like 4 different HH missions on google earth!
Collective sigh of relief.
Quoting 2149. will40:


images are not ready yet

I know, Just thought it was funny.
2155. Grothar
2156. VR46L

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)From RAMMB

Loop Embedded

2157. Patrap
Folks get too caught up n the numbers from years past, nothing less important.

O it reminds me of yada,..it looks like yada 2009,

Really, watch the current storm and learn about it.

That's the whole actual "she bang".
2159. Patrap
2160. Patrap
TD 6 will be inland in 12hrs easily.
Quoting 2148. HurricaneAndre:
That's TS winds.


yea at 25,000 ft in the Northern Gulf
Just based on the consistent surface data from Mexican buoys VERV4 and SACV4 and those stations distance to the SW of 95L showing peak gusts to 38-42 kts in each of the 11 AM to 3PM periods, feel confident Hurricane Hunter recon obs would have confirmed it for the NHC to begin issuing advisories for a tropical storm than a TD... and might anyway from other supportive data. Curious what happened to the 1st mission, but given the favorable parameters for intensifying in the lower BOC, both past history and with present conditions, would not surprise if strengthened to 60-65 mph before landfall.

However, on a related note -
If you look at sat imagery over the basin, can see there's good cyclonic spin evident below 95L / TD 6 in the E Pac S / SW of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Broader view shows 3 companion spins all in a row if include the weakening NW Gulf feature nearing SW LA / TX coast, and all somewhat related to larger ELY wave axis passing across. Looked more closely at differences between 0Z and 12Z GFS analysis, latter run shows the feature in E Pac with better vorticity, lower heights than the BOC system - opposite of what earlier 0Z run indicated... although I'd think with the spine of mountains running thru MX, should be enough separation between the two vort centers at the lower levels... dunno...
2163. will40
tropical storm right at landfall
@2129:
I remember that...I think it was last year...
Tropical Depression Six



2166. Grothar
OH, please!!!

This is what the excitement is all about? Come on, we aren't that desperate yet.

So both Fernand and Dorian fail to get anywhere close to the storms they replaced, lol. Looks like Garbielle will get a good shot at being a significant one this year.
2168. barbamz
Ahh, recon is out in the gulf what unburdens me this night from searching for entertaining weather news in the world, lol. And as I'm tired I'll do what a good German should do in the evening, according to writer Wilhelm Busch.


With his peaked nightcap on,
Uncle Fritz to bed has gone;

Tucks the clothes in, shuts his eyes,
And in sweetest slumber lies. ...

From Max and Moritz, by Wilhelm Busch, The Fifth Trick


Good night from a rainy German Sunday, and have a good new week everybody, maybe even metereologically!

Quoting 2148. HurricaneAndre:
That's TS winds.
It's 25,000 feet above ground and hundreds of miles from center...
Veracruz

Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (340°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 40.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Quoting 2167. CybrTeddy:
So both Fernand and Dorian fail to get anywhere close to the storms they replaced, lol. Looks like Garbielle will get a good shot at being a significant one this year.
Just a 'notha wimp to tha list.
quite the surprise....had no idea we would see this. and we'll likely get tropical storm out of it. this is cool. pattern reminds me a lot like 2010 where system goes into mexico and high builds in keeping wave of cv train storms away from CONUS.....we got a storm everybody rejoice!! lol
2173. Walshy
Quoting Bluestorm5:
There was a small 2.9 earthquake in Western NC near Boone, but I never felt it here in Asheville.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ se082513b#summary


I felt it here in Wilkes just signed on to check on it. Very light shake with a weird noise.

Quoting 2166. Grothar:
OH, please!!!

This is what the excitement is all about? Come on, we aren't that desperate yet.



Hey it has been a whole week since we had a storm in the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 2167. CybrTeddy:
So both Fernand and Dorian fail to get anywhere close to the storms they replaced, lol. Looks like Garbielle will get a good shot at being a significant one this year.


Shouldn't jump the gun on naming these things Ted, no matter how apparent it may be.
On their way back, the HH should pass through the AOI in the N. Gulf. Just for giggles :P
Quoting 2162. DocNDswamp:
Just based on the consistent surface data from Mexican buoys VERV4 and SACV4 and those stations distance to the SW of 95L showing peak gusts to 38-42 kts in each of the 11 AM to 3PM periods, feel confident Hurricane Hunter recon obs would have confirmed it for the NHC to begin issuing advisories for a tropical storm than a TD... and might anyway from other supportive data. Curious what happened to the 1st mission, but given the favorable parameters for intensifying in the lower BOC, both past history and with present conditions, would not surprise if strengthened to 60-65 mph before landfall.

However, on a related note -
If you look at sat imagery over the basin, can see there's good cyclonic spin evident below 95L / TD 6 in the E Pac S / SW of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Broader view shows 3 companion spins all in a row if include the weakening NW Gulf feature nearing SW LA / TX coast, and all somewhat related to larger ELY wave axis passing across. Looked more closely at differences between 0Z and 12Z GFS analysis, latter run shows the feature in E Pac with better vorticity, lower heights than the BOC system - opposite of what earlier 0Z run indicated... although I'd think with the spine of mountains running thru MX, should be enough separation between the two vort centers at the lower levels... dunno...


The one in the EPAC is now, ironically enough, 95E. I give the two a chance to combine in to one storm eventually in the EPAC.
2178. Patrap
Quoting 2166. Grothar:
OH, please!!!

This is what the excitement is all about? Come on, we aren't that desperate yet.






If this was off the Fla East Coast, we would need a second server for the DOOM post alone.

: )
2179. txjac
Quoting 2159. Patrap:


This is really interesting ..lot's of the northern blob is heading south ...looks like it will interact with #6
Quoting 2127. wxgeek723:


The asterisk denotes that the pressure recorded was taken while the storm was producing hurricane force winds while still a hurricane. In other words, the measurement is from the morning of October 29 when a still tropical Sandy was producing hurricane force winds on Great Gull Island, NY.


That makes sense. Thanks for taking the time to answer my question :)
Quoting 2173. Walshy:


I felt it here in Wilkes just signed on to check on it. Very light shake with a weird noise.

It's good idea to report it to USGS if you haven't already. I reported that I didn't feel anything to USGS just in case.
Quoting 2166. Grothar:
OH, please!!!

This is what the excitement is all about? Come on, we aren't that desperate yet.


LOL, We are that desperate! But ya gotta admit that's a pretty picture in the GOM.
2183. Patrap
Quoting 2113. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Got some clouds in Austin.. But no indication our 30% chance will actually verify.
2185. Patrap
2186. gator23
Florida isnt the only one guilty of calling DOOM when a storm is off their coast...
2187. Patrap
Will it go round n circles..

LOL



2188. VR46L
I am finding the relative proximity of 95E and TD6 interesting

2189. txjac
Quoting 2184. redwagon:

Got some clouds in Austin.. But no indication our 30% chance will actually verify.


The clouds are actually a nice respite from the blaring, hot, sun ...I'm enjoying it
Quoting 2167. CybrTeddy:
So both Fernand and Dorian fail to get anywhere close to the storms they replaced, lol. Looks like Garbielle will get a good shot at being a significant one this year.

that's if it even becomes a ts
2191. Patrap
Fujiwara?
2192. Patrap
I discount any post that uses a name on a Model..every time.
Quoting 2166. Grothar:
OH, please!!!

This is what the excitement is all about? Come on, we aren't that desperate yet.



Don't burst their bubbles most wisest of wise :)
Quoting 2190. Articuno:

that's if it even becomes a ts

even though I do think it will
2196. Patrap
Quoting Skyepony:


The one in the EPAC is now, ironically enough, is 95E. I give the two a chance to combine in to one storm eventually in the EPAC.


Thanks Skye, thought it would be designated an invest soon. Yep, sorta what the GFS is trending toward once TD 6 / AL06 is inland...
Re: TD6 > Weakening will occur afterwards as the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico and the system should entirely dissipate in 36 to 48 hours...or sooner, not harming the 3 people who will be impacted by this rain.

2199. Patrap
RECON en route to the AOI maybe..


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:54Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 07

20:56:00Z 26.200N 92.167W 392.6 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,755 meters
(~ 25,443 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 323° at 3 knots
(From the NW at ~ 3.4 mph) -17.0°C*
(~ 1.4°F*) -* 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 15.0 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
500.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:46:30Z (first observation), the observation was 218 miles (350 km) to the S (179°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
2201. Grothar
Quoting 2174. nrtiwlnvragn:


Hey it has been a whole week since we had a storm in the Atlantic Basin.


I can't wait for the models to come out on this one. :)
2202. VR46L
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 20:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.2N 91.0W
Location: 135 miles (218 km) to the SSW (205°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In clouds all the time (continuous instrument meteorological conditions)
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 170° at 18 knots (From the S at ~ 20.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -12°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 31 knots (~ 35.7mph)
2204. Grothar
Quoting 2194. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Don't burst their bubbles most wisest of wise :)



OK. I'll give it a wow.
Still haven't commenced descending.

210600 2518N 09222W 3926 07758 0438 -170 //// 175006 007 009 000 01
2206. 7544
next week should be interesting lookin at the models today .
2207. Patrap
Yer 7 obs behind there petrol
I see we have Tropical Depression #6. Not too shabby!

TD Six makes six tropical cyclones that have been generally weak and short-lived. I think that streak is about to end with the wave exiting the coastline of Africa.
For those jumping on people for naming storms prematurely, some media did it too... just saying.

@wralweather 40s
We now have Tropical Depression SIX! Might be our next named storm (Fernand) soon...
Looks like the HHs are flying through another TD to find a TS :)
2212. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:04Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 08

21:06:00Z 25.300N 92.367W 392.6 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,758 meters
(~ 25,453 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 175° at 6 knots
(From the S at ~ 6.9 mph) -17.0°C*
(~ 1.4°F*) -* 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 7.7 knots (~ 8.9 mph)
128.6%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 20:56:30Z (first observation), the observation was 294 miles (474 km) to the SSW (206°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Quoting 2174. nrtiwlnvragn:


Hey it has been a whole week since we had a storm in the Atlantic Basin.



7 days of no storms makes one weak.
Forget dumb and dumber. This season is bored and border.
Fujiwara with NGOM AOI, 06L, and 95E??
2217. Patrap
Never seen a 3 way Fujiwara, and I'm purty close to the French Quarter too.
Quoting 2185. Patrap:
Looks like more to come in the GOM even as the two systems in the W. move on....
2220. sar2401
Quoting DelawareJack:
Re: TD6 > Weakening will occur afterwards as the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico and the system should entirely dissipate in 36 to 48 hours...or sooner, not harming the 3 people who will be impacted by this rain.


Spent a lot of time around Veracruz, have you? I guess you missed the about 7.7 million people who live within the cone.
2221. VR46L
Quoting 2215. JrWeathermanFL:
Fujiwara with NGOM AOI, 06L, and 95E??


That's an interesting Idea ...
Quoting 2217. Patrap:
Never seen a 3 way Fujiwara, and I'm purty close to the French Quarter too.


lol...G'day Pat...
Quoting 2207. Patrap:
Yer 7 obs behind there petrol


just logged on to Google Earth, so far it appears it is not updating regularly on my computer :)
re: 2208. 1900hurricane 4:09 PM CDT on August 25, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I see we have Tropical Depression #6. Not too shabby!



Great microwave view, 1900, thanks... Captures both AL06 and close proximity of 95E just below.
Been a fairly productive ELY wave!

Quoting 2214. muddertracker:
Forget dumb and dumber. This season is bored and border.
its to pick up shortly window is opening however slowly
Quoting 2214. muddertracker:
Forget dumb and dumber. This season is bored and border.

watch your tongue it it might be bored then board up
2227. sar2401
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Fujiwara with NGOM AOI, 06L, and 95E??

I bought that up earlier. There's no chance it will actually happen, but the proximity of the storms makes an interesting picture.
TD6 is almost 100% Tropical Storm Fernand.



Station VERV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.202N 96.113W
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 32.1 kt gusting to 41.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in and falling



Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (340°) at 34.0 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and falling
2229. sar2401
Quoting all4hurricanes:

watch your tongue it it might be bored then board up

LOL, so true. You go from watching college football to "Martha, where did all the lag screws go" in nothing flat. :-)
2230. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:14Z
Date: August 25, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 09

21:16:00Z 24.417N 92.583W 392.6 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,754 meters
(~ 25,440 feet) - 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) From 156° at 5 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 5.8 mph) -17.5°C
(~ 0.5°F) -18.4°C
(~ -1.1°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 6.7 knots (~ 7.7 mph)
133.3%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 21:06:30Z (first observation), the observation was 323 miles (519 km) to the E (98°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
@2209:
It better end -_-
This is almost like 2011 all over again...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2234. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
For those jumping on people for naming storms prematurely, some media did it too... just saying.

@wralweather 40s
We now have Tropical Depression SIX! Might be our next named storm (Fernand) soon...


Considering the NHC said this:
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

It's probably not unreasonable that some in the media think it will become a tropical storm. I kinda wish the NHC wouldn't say things like this.
EDIT: Never mind, no one will ever see this since the Doc has just posted a new blog. I'm probably already 100 comments behind.
2235. DFWjc
Quoting 1993. seer2012:


Any chance of a spinner off the end of this front?
Quoting 2204. Grothar:



OK. I'll give it a wow.

That was a disappointing wow.
Joe Bastardi ‏
Another short lived, low ace storm, but get ready the real deal is lurking in the pattern and US open for impact threats

Joe Bastardi ‏
alot of warm water waiting for any storm that runs the east coast this hurricane season

Persistent blob with sorta interesting cirrus; 11N 50W. According to CIMSS its associated with a positive vertical convergence/divergence couplet and decreasing shear. The TA is primed; where does the next bubble form?