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The Atlantic is quiet; Typhoon Lupit spares the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on October 23, 2009

There's only good news to report in the tropics today. The tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean has weakened and shrunk, and has little prospect of developing into a tropical depression for at least the next three days. None of the computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Hurricane season is not over yet, though, and we will still need to keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to remain low there for most of the next two weeks, according to recent forecast runs of the GFS model. I expect I'll be talking about "Invest 95L" in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next two weeks.

Typhoon Lupit spares the Philippines
Tropitcal Storm Lupit has weakened and turn northward, out to sea, sparing the storm-ravaged Philippine Island of Luzon from further misery. Lupit never made landfall and the heaviest rains stayed out to sea, with rainfall amounts from the typhoon generally ranging from 1 - 2 inches over northern Luzon Island. Lupit means "cruel" in Tagalog, one of the main languages of the Philippines, but Lupit was primarily cruel in a psychological sense, keeping jittery residents on edge for days as the storm slowly approached. Luzon is still recovering from the destruction wrought by back-to-back typhoons Ketsana and Parma, which killed 860 people and did $642 million in damage.

The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. In the coming weeks, major efforts will be made by both sides of the debate to sway public opinion on climate change. Opponents of CO2 emission regulations made their case last weekend, with the release of the video, Not Evil, Just Wrong. Billed as the largest simultaneous film premiere party in U.S. history, the movie aired on 7,000 screens in 50 states. The movie was originally intended to be released at major theaters throughout the U.S., but Hollywood showed insufficient interest in the film. The producers were forced to release the movie on video and hold private "movie parties" for its opening. The movie fiercely attacks Al Gore, and decrys "the true cost of global warming hysteria" on jobs and the economy.

This Sunday, the green lobby is fighting back. The newly-formed climate advocacy group 350.org is sponsoring 4,517 actions in 173 countries. The group is seeking to promote the views of leading climate scientists, including NASA's Dr. James Hansen, that the highest "safe" level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm--lower than the current 388 ppm, and far below the target value of 450 ppm typically cited as the "danger" level for atmospheric CO2. The plan is to have thousands of citizens making giant human 3s in some cities, 5s in others, and 0s in others--a sort of planet-scale Scrabble game that they hope CNN and BBC will try to solve for them on the evening news. There will be underwater rallies on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and in the Middle East off the coast of Oman. Over 300 land-based rallies will be held in China, and 1,000 in the U.S.

With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing the scientific claims of efforts by the green lobby and the fossil fuel industry and its allies to win your hearts and minds in the run-up to the December 7 conference in Copenhagen. My first post in this series will look at 350.org's claim that 350 ppm of CO2 represents the danger level for CO2 in the atmosphere. I'll also look at an audacious TV ad that boldly asserts that more CO2 in the atmosphere is better for Earth's ecosystems.


Figure 1. Competing for your hearts and minds: Cover of the DVD Not Evil, Just Wrong (left), and a promotional image from the http://www.350.org web site (right), showing children in India spelling out the number "350" to promote a 350 ppm target for CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Next post
Expect my next post on Monday morning, unless there's some significant development in the tropics.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thx Dr M.
Dr.Masters the Climate Change debate is heating up isn't it?
Thanks for the update. Will be looking for your articles on the climate change issues.
Here we go again
Win your hearts and minds means line my pocketbook with your tax money
1010MB LOW AT 13N 44W



Link
All I said was the peoples minds CANNOT compete with Mother Nature. If you don't see me, there's nothing to track, I only blog when there is something to track. Nice of you guys to gang up on me and TRY to put me in my place. Good update Dr. Masters btw, I'm expecting 95L next week sometime, conditions should be favorable.



Orange = Dry air
(watch Orange defeat Yellow)
The GFS does show a relaxing of the 200MB winds briefly which may allow the disturbed area in the bahamas to develope some but even that looks pretty unlikely. this area should get picked up soon by approaching trof.
its time too head in too winter mode on dr m blog
11. IKE
None of the computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. ........

from Dr. Masters himself.

Have a nice weekend doc!

Thanks Dr.; when all is said and done, short of a major spinning up over the next few weeks, it was a quiet season (where the tropical storms outnumbered actual hurricanes)in the Tropical Atlantic with reduced activity as generally predicted due to overall conditions this year. It was a blessing for all of the folks in the Tropical Atlantic this year, but, the same cannot be said as to the activity in the Pacific Basin this year. Speaks volumes about the inverse relationship between both basins and the ENSO cycle this year.
And...94L fades like a bad dream.
On to the weekend and some nice fall weather in the Southeast again.
Gotta Luv October,..

Morning Ike..
Seems we may not see "wearing and tearing" any more in 09.
Morning.

I guess the AGW discussion haters will quit the blog en masse for the next 6 weeks... lol

Should be an interesting time.

I'm also relieved nothing seems to be coming of the 94L area so far. While it would have been interesting to watch, many people who would have been impacted by such a system have been spared. Also good news about Lupit and the Philippines.... (sounds like a rock band... lol).
15. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
And...94L fades like a bad dream.
On to the weekend and some nice fall weather in the Southeast again.
Gotta Luv October,..

Morning Ike..
Seems we may not see "wearing and tearing" any more in 09.


I think it's over for the northern GOM. Looks like some colder weather may be coming in the next 2 weeks to us.
AL 95 2009102312 BEST 0 220N 755W 25 1009 DB


SHIPS Text
17. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 95 2009102312 BEST 0 220N 755W 25 1009 DB


Doc....future Caribbean disturbance would have to be 96L now....lol.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 95 2009102312 BEST 0 220N 755W 25 1009 DB



e PAC??
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 95 2009102312 BEST 0 220N 755W 25 1009 DB


SHIPS Text


That was quick. :)
Morning All
Quoting IKE:


I think it's over for the northern GOM. Looks like some colder weather may be coming in the next 2 weeks to us.


..Then "Bring it on Home",.Im mean down,LOL
local cable weather station said 95 was expected to move over s. fl. personally i doubt if it will move west much at all
Looks Like 95L may Clip a famous posters "curtain',

...I mean Home,..
Quoting sporteguy03:
Dr.Masters the Climate Change debate is heating up isn't it?


Dude, really?
been extremely active yr here in the atlantic basin for invest
Hmm.... if it does get over the Gulf Stream as suggested, we might see more weather out of it than otherwise expected...
Looks like the potential for some rain and t-storms for the Florida West coast later today as the front approaches....Covection starting to increase along the frontal boundry and will probably continue to increase as the day heats up.
Speed it up, you can see the 95L in the bottom right corner
I'm surprised they even designated it. I'm almost about to call it a season but i'll hold myself till mid November which mjo spiking.
Good Evening one and all.
I am so glad Lupit has decided to turn and go back out to see.
could 95L be other Nor Eester for the E coast??
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 23 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA BAHAMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 25.5N 79.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
WVW


Quoting Patrap:
Looks Like 95L may Clip a famous posters "curtain',

...I mean Home,..


Patster now really now?
Fall and late summer in this Frame..

How long until Bastardi issues an alert for NYC?
Just asking, and it could be just me... however is the bahama wave rotating?
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until Bastardi issues an alert for NYC?


Id say,within the Hour TF.

Joe Like's a Big audience,anyway he can get um,..LOL

Wasnt too bumpy here last night as the system and squall line weakened as it got here.
Some 30 secs of pea sized hail was exciting though.
42. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until Bastardi issues an alert for NYC?


Or 3 bloggers I can think of come back on here.
Thank you Dr. Masters,with two Nor'easters so far and a possible one for Tuesday,I feel like I'm in winter mode already.
i'll keep an eye on 95l for now.
Quoting Patrap:
Fall and late summer in this Frame..



Morning Pat; how did you fare with all the bad weather in your parts yesterday?


I was looking at the visible loop a minute ago, and there was a pretty obvious low centre between Long Island and Cuba, over the open waters of the Great Bahama Bank. Didn't look at the WV to see if it was low or mid level, though. Water in that area is mostly shallow, but still warm enough to support something if it's moving fast enough. Looks like most of the Bahamas is likely to get some rain between now and tomorrow....
48. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Morning IKE;Patrap.


TGIF!
Hmmmm...I am supposed to go fishing for the first time in my life Sunday morning off the Palm Beach coast. Any thoughts on what I can expect as far as wave action? Thanks!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Morning Pat; how did you fare with all the bad weather in your parts yesterday?


Wasnt too bumpy here last night as the system and squall line weakened as it got here.
Some 30 secs of pea sized hail was exciting though.


Morning Chief,

A temperature of 105 is being recorded at Jacksonville Craig airport. LOL likely an error but still interesting.
Quoting DookiePBC:
Hmmmm...I am supposed to go fishing for the first time in my life Sunday morning off the Palm Beach coast. Any thoughts on what I can expect as far as wave action? Thanks!


First Time out?....Take some Dramamine and head out to the weed lines for Dolphin and Sails.....
Quoting BahaHurican:


I was looking at the visible loop a minute ago, and there was a pretty obvious low centre between Long Island and Cuba, over the open waters of the Great Bahama Bank. Didn't look at the WV to see if it was low or mid level, though. Water in that area is mostly shallow, but still warm enough to support something if it's moving fast enough. Looks like most of the Bahamas is likely to get some rain between now and tomorrow....


Looks like a weak llc with a ull to the south of cuba. (I just looked at visible and water vapor.) I think this has a chance if the llc can stay off of cuba to be a weak subtropical entity.
It will be pretty early in the morning I think. (Sunrise maybe). A friend of mine belongs to a boat club and has a boat for the day and invited me to tag along with him and another friend to go fishing. I don't think they go very far out, especially since we are supposed to be back by 1:00 or so to meet the wives at Peanut Island. I've never been on a boat in the ocean that didn't say "Royal Caribbean" or "Disney" on the side. ;-)
AMZ555-232045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS


THIS AFTERNOON
EAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET AND CHOPPY. A
LIGHT CHOP ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. A LIGHT CHOP ON THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. MOSTLY SMOOTH ON THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING EAST 5 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. A LIGHT CHOP ON THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


Its going to be bumpy, Id bring some sea sickness pills.
Quoting DookiePBC:
Hmmmm...I am supposed to go fishing for the first time in my life Sunday morning off the Palm Beach coast. Any thoughts on what I can expect as far as wave action? Thanks!
Looks like whatever 95L makes of itself will be north of there by Sunday a.m. Good advice in wxman's post, though.
New blog folks

Quoting HurricaneKing:


Looks like a weak llc with a ull to the south of cuba. (I just looked at visible and water vapor.) I think this has a chance if the llc can stay off of cuba to be a weak subtropical entity.
I'm not too keen on the idea of rain all weekend. I need it to stay relatively dry for at least one of those days, and between this and the latest front, there's a good chance we'll be getting showers all weekend... OTOH, if we do have to see something tropical, I'd rather it be low-wind, which is what, for now at least, 95L is most likely to be.
Quoting DookiePBC:
Hmmmm...I am supposed to go fishing for the first time in my life Sunday morning off the Palm Beach coast. Any thoughts on what I can expect as far as wave action? Thanks!

If this is your first time on a real boat...not one of those cruise ships....then realize the kind of boat you're on has no stabilizers. You'll FEEL the ocean moving. Until you're sure you have your sea legs, don't drink alcohol, stay away from the engine as the fumes can sometimes add to the "quesiness". If you do hurl, be considerate. Consider the direction of the wind. Good luck and have fun.
golb wen
There really is a new blog, folks... lol... thought kman was playin' wit' us at first...