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The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Models arn't data.
A lesson that needs to be relearned from time to time for some of us.
2004. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I'm not trying to rag on ya, but when you look at the pattern across the U.S., That's a pretty flat pattern, which is hard to get a trof to dip that far south...that's why the ECMWF in that graphic basically show, no trof...in fact, that's all ridge in the Atlantic. I'm just pointing out what makes meteorological sense, at least to me.
If it misses the first trof, is there another one behind it?
Quoting MahFL:
Stormy....your not Westcasting are you ?


Storm doesn't do any type of casting but forecasting. Which entails being objective. You won't find StormW with a bias in his forecasts. Trust me. That's why he's so great, and respected by many, myself included.
Quoting IKE:


True...but 5 of 5 show it moving to near 20N and 50-52W in 5 days...and turning more toward the north.

All of these models may be wrong. But these same 5 forecast this to develop, which it appears to be doing.


Agree, that is what all of the guidance is currently showing but still have to include the possibility that strength/timing of storm/trough may come into play. The human model at TAFB is currently seeing the same thing you are.


2009. scott39
StormW, What degress longitude and lattitude do the models develope the AOI in the eastern Atlantic?
Good morning,


Jeff's put down the remote and put on his climbing gear.
2012. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Agree, that is what all of the guidance is currently showing but still have to include the possibility that strength/timing of storm/trough may come into play. The human model at TAFB is currently seeing the same thing you are.




That's true....won't argue that.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for the compliment Korie.

Now, off to perform analysis.


No problem man. I meant every word. You're my man. You've taught me a great deal about forecasting, which has bettered me in the field. For that, you deserve my respect.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
2016. IKE
Right on cue...just like the models have been saying.
Finally...

AL, 95, 2010082006 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting hurricane556:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


At last.
2020. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Fish.


Wouldn't that be great?
AL95


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

2023. IKE
Eastern-PAC firing up...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
EATLWVLoop

11N 25.3W
Will this get a floater now?
2028. scott39
Now we have something to track!
Quoting IKE:
Eastern-PAC firing up...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Whoa, wow. Just 12 hours ago it was only 20%. Amazing how quickly things can change.
Quoting StormW:


Fish.


Why do those numbers make it a fish?
8-10 day pattern on the GFS/EURO show exactly the toss up we have within our model guidance this morning. EURO 8-10 day 500mb means shows increasing heights from south of Greenland, east of Labador, Canada and stretching towards the NEern US states showing the presence of a ridge over the NW Atlantic perhaps blocking any type of hurricane going northward and out to sea. The -NAO reaching its most negative values recently will begin to respond towards neutral and positive levels sometime around September 1st. Hurricane makes closest approach sometime before than around AUG 29-31. So with time the A/B high strengthens as our storm gets trapped underneath the ridge.

This means that the models will head more westward with time. Our broad low is around 10N/25W currently and another extension of the broad LLC is around 15W and 13N with an area of convection associated with it. Conditions are slowly becoming favorable for development. Blog update this afternoon after the 12z EURO comes out.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Models should shift left on the next run.


Main thing that shows with the BAMs so tightly clustered is a low shear environment, at least from the GFS model.
i was right a big fish storms next week.
2041. scott39
What longitude and lattitude will Invest 95 have to be at timing wise, to be effected by the Trof?
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
8-10 day pattern on the GFS/EURO show exactly the toss up we have within our model guidance this morning. EURO 8-10 day 500mb means shows increasing heights from south of Greenland, east of Labador, Canada and stretching towards the NEern US states showing the presence of a ridge over the NW Atlantic perhaps blocking any type of hurricane going northward and out to sea. The -NAO reaching its most negative values recently will begin to respond towards neutral and positive levels sometime around September 1st. Hurricane makes closest approach sometime before than around AUG 29-31. So with time the A/B high strengthens as our storm gets trapped underneath the ridge.

This means that the models will head more westward with time. Our broad low is around 10N/25W currently and another extension of the broad LLC is around 15W and 13N with an area of convection associated with it. Conditions are slowly becoming favorable for development. Blog update this afternoon after the 12z EURO comes out.


I look forward to that! You're a great contributor, friend.

I'll have a blog of my own up later today, once I get some sleep.
Dr. Masters said models this far out should not be trusted. Interesting how they forecast the new AOI/Invest to rise out of the ITCZ. The billion dollar question is, how much and how fast that happens.
Quoting StormW:


They don't
hello stormw its going to be a big fish storm by next week and the next storm will be a fish storm to.
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Fri 20 Aug 2010 11:30:01Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

Current Northwest Pacific* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0430Z

Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0900Z

As of Tue 17 Aug 2010 10:30:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
East Pacific
92E.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Good morning all

Last night I thought this would be an Invest no later than noon today and here we are. 95L is a little ahead of my curve for it to develop as a TD. My thinking was 48 hrs ( Saturday night ) but it could be quicker looking at how the convection has increased overnight and the surface pressure.

This is a slow mover which will complicate both the track and intensity forecast. Typically, one would expect a system getting out of the gate this early and already North of 10 degrees that far East to recurve NE of the Caribbean. Obviously too soon to say on that score.

Interesting couple of days ahead.
SmileyCentral.com

Wha- what did Texas do to anger the GFS Gods???
Link
2049. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
This invest to should be a TD by now! I can't believe it isn't...NHC needs to wake up over there already! I bet because it is so far away from land that they don't care as much about it.

This is a TD if I have ever seen one! HELLLLLLOOOOO 2010!


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
Oh. I think I missed a joke :|
2052. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
2053. scott39
Ike, What kind of side dishes do you want if 95 isnt a Fish?
690

WHXX01 KWBC 201125

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1125 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100820 0600 100820 1800 100821 0600 100821 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.5W 11.8N 28.2W 12.1N 30.2W

BAMD 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.5W 12.0N 28.1W 12.6N 30.2W

BAMM 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.4W 11.9N 28.1W 12.4N 30.2W

LBAR 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.9W 12.3N 29.1W 13.2N 31.9W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100822 0600 100823 0600 100824 0600 100825 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5W

SHIP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS

DSHP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Time to switch to Decaf Boys.
2059. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike, What kind of side dishes do you want if 95 isnt a Fish?


Steak fries and pork and beans.
2060. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:
Time to switch to Decaf Boys.
lol...I think you're right :)
2061. MahFL
Lol good one StormyW.....so fish = Miami cat 5 landfall ?
Quoting IKE:


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
come on NHC, send the the recon out of Africa, would be a short trip...and we would get all of the questions answered.

on the other hand, they may not have classified it a TD or TS yet and no recon cause jason has declared the season a fish. I believe I just saw on the local news the NHC workers are packing their bags for the season and going home and all of the computers were being put away til next season.
Good morning ike .Been a real busy with work and home so have not been able to post.First let me admit to storm top i was wrong about the remnants of td 5.So lenny i owe you a poboy and a bowl of Gumbo.But at 46 years old I should have known better than to hype up something during this hurricane season lol.Now back to my present cast which i will certainly stay with.Being that the tropics are so quite lately i went back and checked all the cyclones that formed before 40 west td strength or above.Out of 30plus systems that formed prior to 40 west since 1995 only five formed before 40 west fran Bertha georges isabell ike.And ike barelymade it it was classiefied at 39.5 west lol.So my theory over all the arguing and posting for a system thats 4000 miles away that has less than a 10% chance of affecting the conus even if the conditions were right seems silly.The folks in the islands should have concern but people in the conus at this point lol.Also i see this season has become such a let down they are now tracking pre invest.I personally wish they would go back to just a tropical weather outlook get rid of the circles.Also Ike I see cws is trying to keep the drama alive about this storm threatening land. I swear his post are identical almost to the same propoganda that miamihurr009 spits out and he doesnt even know his real age but i do and it is not the 13 he first claimed lol.So folks once again i am not a downcaster just a present caster.And the present is 3-1-0 with a possible name coming up that will only be a threat to fish and our merchant shippers.Remember this a present cast lol Storm Ike have a blessed day.
2064. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Steak fries and pork and beans.
LOL, Thats good with everything!
Quoting IKE:


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
I feel like I'd win if I decide to run for president in the next election; Hell, I would've won in the last election for that matter.
Its go time.
2068. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Steak fries and pork and beans.
Better save those pork and beans Ike...just in case
fish storms going out to sea.
40%
Quoting StormW:


Good morning, ma'am!


Hi Storm. Can you post one of those charts that shows the highs over the
Atlantic right now?
2072. tkeith
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms going out to sea.
where's the video?
2073. scott39
post--2041?
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
hello stormw its going to be a big fish storm by next week and the next storm will be a fish storm to.
have you done your analysis and posted it on your blog yet...oh wait, guess that would be a you tube video not a blog. Tell me, will you be using the whip cream to show your analysis for this one ???
2075. dmaddox
they dusted the dust off the orange crayon!! whoop! :)
2076. dmaddox
Quoting StormW:


Morning kman! Good to see you!!


Hi Storm

Likewise. This one has the look of being one of those large CV systems. The aerial coverage is very extensive. Slow movers have a tendency of becoming very strong but that also increases the odds of an early recurve.

All we can do is watch and wait until it settles down into some discernible pattern going forward.
2078. IKE
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5..........................

Near 20N and 50W on all of them too and moving WNW to NW.....better be a strong high to turn her back west.....
2079. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Better save those pork and beans Ike...just in case


lol.
U know storm, I a amazed at ur forecasting skills. I have read every synopsis for the past month and have learned a great deal from u. Thanks for all ur time and effort. By the way from what I have read and learned I don't think this new invest will go OTS. IMO
2081. scott39
Quoting IKE:
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5..........................

Near 20N and 50W on all of them too and moving WNW to NW.....better be a strong high to turn her back west.....
Do you think it would be unusual for a strong high to turn her back this time of year?
According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.
I have a busy day ahead so have to run now. Will be back later.

BFN
2085. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:
According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.


:)
Quoting Chicklit:
According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.
but what a model he is...
East Pacific upgrade


invest_RENUMBER_ep922010_ep082010.ren 20-Aug-2010 11:46 931
off to work i go later all all updated tech info can be found here on my blog

Link
Ok, looks like we have chum in the water this morning. There should be plenty of WU sharks in the water today.
Quoting IKE:
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5..........................

Near 20N and 50W on all of them too and moving WNW to NW.....better be a strong high to turn her back west.....


She is gonna be a fish storm IKE. Too strong of a trough next week along the east coast. This could be a common occurrance of the east coast trough from here on out. I also don't see my numbers of 15 to 17 coming true either maybe 12 to 14. I will say this the east coast troughs could be killer if a storm gets in the Caribbean.
2093. Vero1
Good Morning.... StormW, Chicklit, KOG, Keith, Kman, Hunker, and Waterpup (if your waggin you tail yet)

Sips black coffee with one eye open....
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Fri 20 Aug 2010 12:04:01Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

Current Northwest Pacific* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0430Z

Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0900Z

As of Tue 17 Aug 2010 10:30:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
East Pacific
08E.EIGHT(T.C.F.W.)
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Well ike 5 out of 35 since 95 the odds are pretty great as i detailed in my previous post.Must have got overlooked to the 100 posts about our sereghetti hippo storm lol.
2099. help4u
These storms all curving thousands of miles off shore ,see nothing to change this pattern,the high impact season is not going to happen.
Quoting StormW:


That's the steering now but a pretty potent cut off low is going to form along the mid atlantic and act as a deflector for any tropical systems coming from the SE.
2102. Engine2
Quoting Jeff9641:


She is gonna be a fish storm IKE. Too strong of a trough next week along the east coast. This could be a common occurrance of the east coast trough from here on out. I also don't see my numbers of 15 to 17 coming true either maybe 12 to 14. I will say this the east coast troughs could be killer if a storm gets in the Caribbean.

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south
Quoting StormW:


???


Quoting StormW:


???




That doesn't bode well for the east coast
2104. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2105. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Do you think it would be unusual for a strong high to turn her back this time of year?


It could happen.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
SmileyCentral.com

Wha- what did Texas do to anger the GFS Gods???
Link


Your worrying over a TS?
you can see the weakness in the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook image
Its a ghost trough. They are very common on the weather underground blog.
Quoting IKE:


It could happen.


A 20 percent chance and that maybe generous. Very good model consense for a recurvature.
Good Morning Everyone...Are finnaly going to see some development in the Atlantic?
Quoting Engine2:

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south
2113. Patrap
2110. GTcooliebai


Oh I hope not.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Its a ghost trough. They are very common on the weather underground blog.


Ghost trough?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_174.shtml
Good Morning.... StormW, Chicklit, KOG, Keith, Kman, Hunker, IKE, and Waterpup (if your waggin you tail yet)
Sips black coffee with one eye open....
Morning Pat
Quoting Engine2:

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_174.shtml
2120. Patrap
Morn' EDF.

Friday!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting StormW:


How far in the period?


6 to 7 days from now a cut off low forms along the mid atlantic. The models have been constant with this for 4 days now.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Good Morning.... StormW, Chicklit, KOG, Keith, Kman, Hunker, IKE, and Waterpup (if your waggin you tail yet)
Sips black coffee with one eye open....


We had some action near us last evening. A tremendous amount of lightning just to my east by about 15 miles.
2127. scott39
What is the depth of 95L?
2128. breald
I see our wave is now at 40% for development.
For the past couple of days all the nonbelievers have wanted to ignore the consistent model support saying that we need an invest to track and then see what it looks like. Now we have an invest and nothing has changed in a future track with a a turn to the north. People still don't want to believe the models. This one is going north. Maybe the next storm will take a different track.
Quoting Patrap:
Morn' EDF.

Friday!!!!!!!!!!


Heck yeah... Now that was one crazy music video there pat... Too early for that for D-fly.. LOL

Quoting Engine2:

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south
Apparently the computer models think the trough will be enough to turn it OTS. Same track past 9 or so gfs runs. Always subject to change though. Now, the second one behind it, may be a different story.
A trough that hasn't formed yet = ghost trough
Quoting Jeff9641:


We had some action near us last evening. A tremendous amount of lightning just to my east by about 15 miles.


Morning Jeff... are you close to Sebring?? that is where the real hot spot was last night.. Some in Lake Mary but Sebring got the good stuff. Just a bit out of my range.
It looks like that Atlantic will start to heat up soon, but at least we're getting close to that time of year where the stronger troughs start to dig down out of Canada. So hopefully, the "go fish" signal will apply to systems trying to move west from the African coast.

This new invest doesn't seem to be moving particularly fast. The slower it moves, the more likely it is to recurve.
Quoting scott39:
What is the depth of 95L?

I think it must be rather shallow. And I'm wondering if the models develop this quickly with slow intensification or rapid intensification. That may give an inkling as to where this is heading. By the way I wonder how high the SAL is?
Quoting StormW:


I beg to differ.


Storm I watched the GFS models and I think the GFS is bringing a L frontal system across the US and exiting just around the VA/NC border.

Thats just an assumption because outside of that I really dont see what would cause this storm to pull so quickly north save it was reacting to this weak frontal system.
2143. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


A 20 percent chance and that maybe generous. Very good model consense for a recurvature.


Can't argue with that either.
Quoting jrweatherman:
For the past couple of days all the nonbelievers have wanted to ignore the consistent model support saying that we need an invest to track and then see what it looks like. Now we have an invest and nothing has changed in a future track with a a turn to the north. People still don't want to believe the models. This one is going north. Maybe the next storm will take a different track.


Um Jr.....maybe u need to go back and look in the archives and check out the early model runs for Ike and Andrew. That might change your thinking
ECMWF 00Z 168 hour 500mb ensemble mean


2146. Engine2
Quoting StormW:
In case anyone has forgotten the GFS has ALWAYS had a northern, or poleward bias when dealing with CV storms.

As always, I have alot of faith in what Storm says - this is while I'll check back later and see new model runs with more westerly components.
Quoting StormW:
In case anyone has forgotten the GFS has ALWAYS had a northern, or poleward bias when dealing with CV storms.
I didnt know that. But thanks for the heads up because I was about to pull all my hair out wondering how this system is turning so quick north.

If you had waited any longer on giving me this clue I would have ended up looking like you?? LOL.
fish storm by the computer models ..i am right again. 100% fish storm..look at the computer models
Quoting Jeff9641:


We had some action near us last evening. A tremendous amount of lightning just to my east by about 15 miles.

Morning everyone, jeff and Dfly, you had some great lightning last night.I could see it from my place.
2150. breald
Quoting StormW:


Correct...look at the upcoming synoptic pattern.



Wow, I didn't even realize we had an invest.

So storm, based on your above response, the pattern is setting up to be CV Fish storms??
2151. scott39
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I think it must be rather shallow. And I'm wondering if the models develop this quickly with slow intensification or rapid intensification. That may give an inkling as to where this is heading. By the way I wonder how high the SAL is?
I would say slow developement and the SAL is moving out of the picture. I think a shallow system would continue to move W? I hope a trof developes and kicks her N, but this being Late August, I would put my money on that trof being overdone and the high building back in.
Need 95L to get to approx 70W before recurvature to see much...

in other news, Aussies getting massive swell!
Quoting severstorm:

Morning everyone, jeff and Dfly, you had some great lightning last night.I could see it from my place.


We had great lightning before dark here in Winter Garden.... Unfortunatly right after the sun went down the lightning went north and south of me.. I got a few shots but nothing I would post.. But I still need to review the images...
Hey everybody Jason is 100% correct. He sure can call em..can't wait for his synopsis with video.
2157. swlavp
Quoting StormW:


Well, that isn't correct in the graphic...once again, the models are jumping on a WNW motion right away. WHICH way is it moving right now?, and for the past 36-48 hours?
Due West...270 Deg.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:



LOVE IT! Thanks for the good morning ROFLMAO!!!
Quoting swlavp:
Due West...270 Deg.


And will continue to do so based on the steering maps
Quoting wayfaringstranger:




Dont bring politics into this a very bad call...
Looking good...

Click image for full-size


new update here...Tropical Depression Eight-E
2164. Vero1
Storm, is this what the models are seeing?

. wayfaringstranger 12:27
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm by the computer models ..i am right again. 100% fish storm..look at the computer models


Can u please leave your POLITICAL OPINION off the blog!!

2167. IKE
Trouble Brewing in the Atlantic

Aug 20, 2010 6:05 AM

We continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather, extending from the west coast of Africa and south of the Cape Verde Islands. While a low-level circulation has not developed, clouds associated with this system are turning counter-clockwise suggesting at least some midlevel circulation. The upper-level winds, lower-level wind shear and the overall atmosphere surrounding and ahead of this area of disturbed weather are favorable for further organization and we continue to believe there is a good chance this feature will gradually become a tropical system within the next couple of days and could become the next tropical depression in the Atlantic Basin by the end of this weekend, as computer modeling suggests that formation will start to take place over the next 24-36 hours around 12 north, 30 west. A large area of high pressure in the Atlantic has been slowly working eastward during the past couple of days and this trend should continue. This suggests this system will move westward for a few days, then gradually turn more northwestward next week. The future path of this system remains highly uncertain until a low-level feature forms.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave near 86 west remains disorganized as it moves west at about 6-8 degrees longitude per day. The system continues to encounter some shear and no low-level feature has formed yet. So development of this system looks unlikely at this time as it approaches Central America. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney
Quoting scott39:
I would say slow developement and the SAL is moving out of the picture. I think a shallow system would continue to move W? I hope a trof developes and kicks her N, but this being Late August, I would put my money on that trof being overdone and the high building back in.

I tend to agree even ECMWF believes so: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/archive/10081800/62.html
notice the bend back to the left.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm by the computer models ..i am right again. 100% fish storm..look at the computer models


Models are NOT gospel.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, and most of the models recurved Andrew, and Ike.


Yes but Andrew was a very weak Tropical Storm until it began to rapidly intensify around 66 degrees west.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
100% being a fish storm


Doubt it......

As the well known Max Mayfield says.... "Don't look at models beyond 2 - 3 days as anything can happen after that"

South Floridians and forcasters learned this with Andrew.....
Quoting StormW:


Well, that isn't correct in the graphic...once again, the models are jumping on a WNW motion right away. WHICH way is it moving right now?, and for the past 36-48 hours?

AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

are you saying that computer models are not right on this map.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm by the computer models ..i am right again. 100% fish storm..look at the computer models


Hope you're right, but you well know that it's WAY too early to tell where anything is going with 100% accuracy.
2176. breald
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Dont bring politics into this a very bad call...


If she is a politician, I am a meteorologist. Both would be bad to relay on. But you are right bad call.
Storm, Ike, Pat, D'Fly, Good Morning
Quoting Vero1:
Storm, is this what the models are seeing?

I think this is what the GFS is seeing...and likely causing the recurve back on this intel
Quoting AllStar17:


Models are NOT gospel.


Trust me, as soon as models start shifting left Jason will b the first 2 say no fish storm then say he was right all along.
Another quiet day in the tropics...
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Now while Jason may take that the wrong way I have nothing but love for the guy.

Earthlydragonflygrasshopper thinks this is about politics...nice try.

But really, we just needed a smiling face to cheer us all up and who has a better smiling face than Sarah?
I like Sarah.. My wife looks Exaclty like her!! But you taken a shot against a political view.
2183. Patrap
2180. MrMarcus


U betcha

Morn' ms
that was very fast.
2186. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
Storm, is this what the models are seeing?



That map kind of depicts what may happen.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yes but Andrew was a very weak Tropical Storm until it began to rapidly intensify around 66 degrees west.

Which might happen here, by the looks of satelite presentation 95L is quite large & may take some time to consolidate.
2188. Vero1
Thanks, IKE
Quoting breald:


If she is a politician, I am a meteorologist. Both would be bad to relay on. But you are right bad call.


That and once everyone realizes it... All politicians are a BAD call... LOL
Well I got my first and last violation. Nice.

I dont bring any politics into this blog but I do try to add some humor. #2165 - Jason should know it wasnt anything done with bad intentions. But I'll leave the nonsense out this morning and I do offer my apologies if anyone was offended.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
that was very fast.

The score is 8-5 in favor of the EPAC
If the models are wrong, you'll need The Most Interesting Man in the World (tm).

He once dissipated a hurricane... just by breathing on it...
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I think this is what the GFS is seeing...and likely causing the recurve back on this intel


It is not just the GFS. The first model runs from the BAMMs suite, NGPS all turn it way north before 55W.
2195. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
Thanks, IKE


Western high moves west...eastern high stays in place...weakness between the 2. If this spins up like the models are forecasting, it's catfish time.

Maybe the models will change.
Morning All,

Finally done with my two weeks of days rotation. Looking forward to being back on nights next week. Looks like we will have some storms over the next week to track and monitor. Hope they do not become monsters in the GOM, or for that matter anywhere that can cause havoc for anyone
Quoting msgambler:
Storm, Ike, Pat, D'Fly, Good Morning


Morning Gambler!!!
2199. WxLogic
Good Morning...
2200. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

So we have 95L? I have a question though for the blog..accuweather was saying last night that ex-td05 could redevelop off the the NC carolina coast, if that does happen, wouldnt that play a part in 95L path..can a storm influence another storm steering? Both the GFS and Euro model were picking up the NC storm in the last runs. Would they be too far away from each other to feel the effects of each other..thats if they develop..TIA
2201. breald
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Well I got my first and last violation. Nice.

I dont bring any politics into this blog but I do try to add some humor. #2165 - Jason should know it wasnt anything done with bad intentions. But I'll leave the nonsense out this morning and I do offer my apologies if anyone was offended.


Well, gosh darn it also, you didn't offend me...LOL Don't worry about it, most on here are not that sensitive.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


It is not just the GFS. The first model runs from the BAMMs suite, NGPS all turn it way north before 55W.


thats just it though, you have 100 hrs + for this to be true so Im not sure at this point if its worth all the tension that it seems to be creating and there are some model runs that leave a measure of doubt as to how strong that frontal system is and if it will even be south enough to interact with the system.
Hurricane season expected to heat up

Excerpts:



``Aug. 20 is that one day when we say the bell tolls,'' said Todd Kimberlain, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. `It's right around the time when we see this huge ramp-up.''


Much of that vast ocean remains in what meteorologists call the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a lengthy pattern that tends to produce more storms. Atlantic Ocean temperatures also are running as high. A La Niña pattern, marked by cooling temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, typically tends to reduce wind shear, making it easier for storms in theAtlantic to form and strengthen.

Still, meteorologists say, some factors have limited storms so far, including more wind shear than expected, dry Saharan dust injecting itself into waves and a large-scale effect that helped stabilize the atmosphere in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Temperature differences between the warm ocean and cooler air aloft tend to create the unstable atmosphere that fuel hurricanes, but for reasons Kimberlain said were not well understood, the lower-level cool seemed to tamp down storm development.

``That signal is fading away now,'' he said. ``We are back to where we should be climatologically.''
Storm, on the QBO:

Is it expected to become favourable for development below 15N anytime soon, or is it stuck for the next period (however long the graph/models etc go on for)?
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow
2207. IKE
MJO....

Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow
BTW, what is that off the NC/SC coast this morning ?
Good morning all!

I am checking in to see who has the best storyline today on "As the Storm Turns".
Looks like the number of cast members and wannabe's are increasing...this is just
like Hollywood - everybody wants to be the
main star!..lol
Quoting StormW:


We should pretty much remain in an easterly QBO for the next couple of months (easterly = less favored phase)


Right.

Would you happen to have any statistics for it on how far it goes back?

Be interested to see how it may correlate to major hurricanes at all.
2212. spathy
On that set of model runs it looks like LBAR has a stall and a drastic turn to the Due North.
I would assume once again its that area around 50W is where we will have a much better idea where this might be heading?
Quoting StormW:


It can, per se. I don't know if everyone remembers Dean and Felix...they both had pretty potent upper to almost mid level lows (cutoff) directly in their path, or a little NW directly in front of them. I thought at the time, it would tug them further north, and hence I was right of model guidance. These features were persistent with both storms through their cycle. Guess what?
I know this one. they both continued WEST. Dean was forecast to make a direct hit on the Cayman Islands and fortunately continued west to pass south of us. We did have hurricane force winds on the east coast but he was far enough south that is was not too bad.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hurricane season expected to heat up

Excerpts:



``Aug. 20 is that one day when we say the bell tolls,'' said Todd Kimberlain, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. `It's right around the time when we see this huge ramp-up.''


Much of that vast ocean remains in what meteorologists call the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a lengthy pattern that tends to produce more storms. Atlantic Ocean temperatures also are running as high. A La Niña pattern, marked by cooling temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, typically tends to reduce wind shear, making it easier for storms in theAtlantic to form and strengthen.

Still, meteorologists say, some factors have limited storms so far, including more wind shear than expected, dry Saharan dust injecting itself into waves and a large-scale effect that helped stabilize the atmosphere in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Temperature differences between the warm ocean and cooler air aloft tend to create the unstable atmosphere that fuel hurricanes, but for reasons Kimberlain said were not well understood, the lower-level cool seemed to tamp down storm development.

``That signal is fading away now,'' he said. ``We are back to where we should be climatologically.''


That "large-scale effect" must've been from that Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flooding that no one saw coming in the pre-season forecast, which also might have been responsible for the dry air in the Atlantic.
Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow


That storm will not be warm core along the NE coast - it will be baroclinic. It develops along the front, Nor'easter type storm.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
BTW, what is that off the NC/SC coast this morning ?


Off this morning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Looks like a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No development expected from that. ;)
Quoting Chucktown:


That storm will not be warm core along the NE coast - it will be baroclinic. It develops along the front, Nor'easter type storm.


Yep. ;) Still folks in the NE should keep a close eye on this. The pressures look low, even for a Nor'Easter; but you can't tell the exact pressure with the models.

-Snow
Storm, or anyone at that:

The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.
Quoting StormW:


I do...but I've been researching it...and we can't base the activity on the QBO alone...I truly believe the QBO works in combination with the Solar MAX/MIN, El Nino/La Nina, AMO, etc.

QBO is the bottom chart


Hey Storm what exactly does QBO stand for & how does it affect the hurricane season, by the way I noticed as soon as I posted the link for the ECMWF that it was outdated, LOL.
2224. srada
Quoting StormW:


It can, per se. I don't know if everyone remembers Dean and Felix...they both had pretty potent upper to almost mid level lows (cutoff) directly in their path, or a little NW directly in front of them. I thought at the time, it would tug them further north, and hence I was right of model guidance. These features were persistent with both storms through their cycle. Guess what?


they continued west..a lot of players in the potential setup..thanks StormW!
Quoting Snowlover123:


Yep. ;) Still folks in the NE should keep a close eye on this. The pressures look low, even for a Nor'Easter; but you can't tell the exact pressure with the models.

-Snow


Yea, interesting to see a storm like that "bomb" in August. Looks likes a rainy and windy late week for New England. This is the storm and trough that is expected to ultimately catapult Danielle into the north Atlantic.
So whats the deal. We have like 5 different Jasonxxx now? They also stole the original Jason's avatar? Really admin, come on??
Thanks for the graph, Storm.

--

The large scale effect was largely caused by blocking and the relation to the jetstream positioning.

Doesn't the NAO have some impact on that...
Quoting weatherman566:


The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.

xTD5 reminds me of a shark - circling for the kill!
Holy vorticity batman!
2233. Patrap
O Lordy...

here it comes..

a Dean reference.

Wait for it, Wait for it,,,
You mean the one by Scotland?



Supposedly giving off heavy rain, 70mph gusts, thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two.

Had a downpour earlier, but that's it so far. Been the warmest day for ages, though (up to 74).
Quoting StormW:


Felix was a beast too.


2238. shawn26
StormW, what is your gut feeling on the CV storm?
Quoting StormW:


Exactly, which I believe in turn had an effect on the monsoonal moisture from India that aids in our CV stuff. The Indian monsoon has a Quasi-Bi-weekly Oscillation, which I feel the phase to where the monsoon is suppressed, may have been enhanced further by that dip in the jetstream (eastern side of it), which would have helped to force winds toward an easterly direction, keeping the moisture over the areas that were affected.

INDIAN MONSOON


Makes some sense.

The beauty of weather, everything is so inter-related.
Quoting shawn26:
StormW, what is your gut feeling on the CV storm?


Go back and read the blog. He has many posts on what he thinks might happen.
2242. IKE
You can see the spin on the central Atlantic visible loop...looks near 11.5N and about 28W....maybe dry air to it's north with a lack of convection....Link
2243. spathy
Quoting StormW:


If it doesn't giddy up and go...forward motion wise...it has less chance at being a fish, though I'm not too hooked at the moment at the higher percentages of a fish..

What is its forward speed?
Or is it difficult to tell until it gets better organized?
2244. shawn26
Thank you for the info. I have been on this blog for about 3 years just learning. I am sort of the weather guru here at my work, but that is not saying much. Everybody at my work always comes to me for information on storms so we can prepare here at work if something does come this way. I am in Ft. Myers, and ever since Charlie hit, everyone here is a lot more cautious now. I appreciate everything you have tought me on here over the years.
Local met thinks the cv storm will be riding the edge of the atl high which will give it its northward curve just before it reaches the islands what is the forcast for this high any one witha graphic for it?
2247. IKE
2249. spathy
Thanks Storm:0)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. A TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE BROAD LOW THROUGH NEW ORLEANS AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE GULF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...BEING
STEERED BY THE HIGH`S CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.

See that's where we get into trouble here. Hope that's the last thing that rotates around that high this season.

CIMSS shows that there is a lot of dry air over central Atlantic.

I'm thinking that the development of 95L will be slow.

then if the system remains weak, it will go west and perhaps it will be too south to feel the weakening of the ridge between 45W and 55W...

Perhaps A Dean(2007) track coming....

I'm french excuse my english lollll
Quoting Tazmanian:



dont get him started
I MADE A VIDEO NOW ABOUT THE TROPICALS.
Slow development of 95L would be the norm for a potent Cape Verde storm.

Most don't tend to ramp up until they're at least halfway across the Atlantic.

Fred last year was much the aberration.
2255. Vero1
Hurricane Frances (08/25 - 09/10)

2256. Bayside
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Go back and read the blog. He has many posts on what he thinks might happen.


Yeah, go back and read like 2500 posts... sheesh the nerve. As far as I've ever seen StormW doesn't have a problem resharing his opinion on such matters, so why do you pipe in with your comment? If StromW wants doesn't feel like answering a question like that, why don't you let him speak for himself?
i agree ike the dry air is starting to disrupt 95l and convection is decreasing...this may be only temporary...i can say this x5 will not redevelop off the carolina coast its toast...
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.
Quoting StormW:


If it doesn't giddy up and go...forward motion wise...it has less chance at being a fish, though I'm not too hooked at the moment at the higher percentages of a fish..


Fish...hooked...pun intended?? ;-)
45 west will be the key for 95l if it makes it that far..
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.


Best video ever. ;P
Quoting germemiguel:
CIMSS shows that there is a lot of dry air over central Atlantic.

I'm thinking that the development of 95L will be slow.

then if the system remains weak, it will go west and perhaps it will be too south to feel the weakening of the ridge between 45W and 55W...

Perhaps A Dean(2007) track coming....

I'm french excuse my english lollll


Your English is great, I wish could write French as well as you write English.
ITS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ON THE EAST COAST.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.


Nice job Jason!
2272. Jax82
Based on my Saturday plans (I'm going deep sea FISHING tomorrow and to the Jags vs DOLPHINS pre season opener) and the analysis of those plans I think its a sign this will be a Fish storm. ;)
2274. breald
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.



LOL!!
Quoting weatherman566:
Storm, or anyone at that:

The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.


Nearly all the models develop a very (unusually) persistent surface trough over the northern GOMEX next week...if not cyclogenic tropically, then a very convective week indeed for the deep south and gulf coast east of Galveston coming up...
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE NOW I MADE IT.


I couldn't get the sound to work or I went deaf last night when I got a major wedgie. Nice slide show though.
Quoting jason2010xxxx:


Not bad at all...

Quoting StormW:


I just wish I could write.


thanks ! :D
Quoting StormW:


What I'll do is, when I finish my analysis of 95L, and get everything distributed, I'll take a look. May even include it in my synopsis.


Looking forward to it, Senior Chief.
I see we have 95L to look at.......not much but better than nothing. Will check in later, have a great Friday.
invest 95L is moving west at 7 mph..if it keep moving west u will see the computer models go little south at 2pm..is not moving north west at all..its moving west right now.
Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.
Storm, I think somewhere in the US is in BIIIIIIIGGGGG trouble down the road, regardless of 95L
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
invest 95L is moving west at 7 mph..if it keep moving west u will see the computer models go little south at 2pm..is not moving north west at all..its moving west right now.


Does this mean no fish
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
ITS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ON THE EAST COAST.

Or TD7
2287. K8eCane
Quoting nola70119:
Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.


unless of course da models have it going to da GOMM den we can look at em now
Quoting StormW:


I just wish I could write.


I wish I was a genie so I could grant your wish! But since I'm not we will all have to be content with your keyboard generated hieroglyphics. Heck, I can read every word you write, but sometimes, it may as well be Chinese. One thing I always appreciate: Pictures. when I get lost on the road to tropical weather forecasting enlightenment, DestinJeff always gives me a sign to light my way...
Quoting StormW:


What I'll do is, when I finish my analysis of 95L, and get everything distributed, I'll take a look. May even include it in my synopsis.


Thank you StormW! Like everyone says on these boards, I really appreciate and look forward to your blogs as they are extremely informative and I always love another met's input. Thanks again!
i do not like the look of this rain storm on the east coast.
Quoting Jax82:
Based on my Saturday plans (I'm going deep sea FISHING tomorrow and to the Jags vs DOLPHINS pre season opener) and the analysis of those plans I think its a sign this will be a Fish storm. ;)


Hmmmmm.... Testosterone-casting?

KIDDING! ;)
Any body with a forecast for the High in the atlantic this coming week?! Thats what the local mets think is the key not a trough.
?????
Quoting StormW:
Geez...I don't like the looks of the next system (CV)
It could track westward a pose a threat to the carribean,and u.s?.Also I gotta say that was probally the quickest classification I have seen the nhc do.
2297. breald
I'll check back later this afternoon. I have the day off and it is a beautiful day here in NE. The doggie park awaits.
Quoting nola70119:
Here is my approach.....wait for this to at least become a well-defined and growing TD, and take a look at the model runs after dat.


+1
2300. will45
Link


interesting
2301. calder
cotillion, you in the uk?
Quoting StormW:
OUCH!
4th day in a row:




definity ouch...good morning
Quoting StormW:
OUCH!
4th day in a row:





a good recovery but beyond day-4 lots of spread...so tracks beyond a few days are very uncertain.
Quoting will45:
Link


interesting


yeow!
2305. 900MB
HOLY SHIPS!

Ships has 95L up to 105mph in 96 hours. That would be impressive.

Storm- should East Coast (Montauk) be concerned?
Thx as always!
Quoting StormW:
OUCH!
4th day in a row:



Oh's no's.That looks like a real pain.
2308. Vero1
SHIPS brings 95L to 92 knots in 4 days and the LGEM takes it to 92 knots.
95L looks to be seasons first major
Major trouble brewing.
Until 95L makes name status, I will then say "the real deal might be coming"
Quoting cyclonekid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.
thank the weak ab ridge for the curve out to sea for 95l.have seen systems in this area cross the atlantic and visit the se us.
Quoting KanKunKid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.



+1
Good morning Storm! Happy Friday!

I keep hearing that the second potential storm is also going to re curve. Do you concur based on what the models are saying?
2318. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:
You mean the one by Scotland?



Supposedly giving off heavy rain, 70mph gusts, thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two.

Had a downpour earlier, but that's it so far. Been the warmest day for ages, though (up to 74).
Every time I see that satellite picture I remember the 1979 Fastnet disaster.
2319. spathy
Quoting RitaEvac:
Until 95L makes name status, I will then say "the real deal might be coming"


Oh come on Rita.:0)
Its been posted all summer.
(this is the real thing)
Arent we there yet?
Please?
I wanna post it!
Quoting SFlKatCane5:


Thats awesome
Storm,

can you please briefly explain the four table NAO chart that you are saying ouch about?

I can not properly read it due to the letters being blurry.

Also, are you saying ouch because of the potential track of future storms?

Thanks
2322. Vero1


The BAMS suite has this going out to sea, but climatology disagrees somewhat.

Top 10 analog tracks for 95L

Quoting StormSurgeon:


I love Dr. Bill. I took his 3 quarter meteorology series at S. Alabama back in 92.
those were some fun classes. He's heading up a full blown Meteorology degree program out at South now.


Dr Bill Is Terrific! A true pro. I'll bet a great teacher as well.
Last reported at 2010-Aug-20 06:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Aug-20 14:28 UTC.
Position N 13°18', W 026°24'.

Wind from 040 at 14 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 4 second period

Barometer 1008.4 mb
Air temperature 27.5 ° C
Visibility: greater than 10.8 NM
Dewpoint 24.1 ° C
Water temperature 29.0 ° C

Notes date/time lat lon naut miles run avg knots wind from wind knots barom visib wave height air temp dew point water temp
2010-Aug-20 06:00 N 13°18' W 026°24' 390 16.2 040 14 1008.4 10.8 1.5 27.5 24.1 29.0
2327. hydrus
Quoting 900MB:
HOLY SHIPS!

Ships has 95L up to 105mph in 96 hours. That would be impressive.

Storm- should East Coast (Montauk) be concerned?
Thx as always!
Montauk gets whacked by all kinds of storms. In September the Nor,Easters start. And some years the hurricanes..
How long until 95 is named?
2328....Now thats Funny!
Quoting duajones78413:
How long until 95 is named?


I don't know (looks at watch) what time you got lol!
2334. angiest
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The BAMS suite has this going out to sea, but climatology disagrees somewhat.

Top 10 analog tracks for 95L



Donna, eh?
2335. Jax82
Quoting Jax82:


doh! missed again
Howdy all...
Difficult to describe this season...Barbarians at the(ULL)Gate?
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.6N 33.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2010 14.6N 33.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2010 16.0N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2010 16.7N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2010 18.4N 42.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2010 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2010 22.2N 47.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2010 24.5N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 26.6N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200458

Quoting duajones78413:
How long until 95 is named?


I'm here for you buddy...
Quoting duajones78413:
How long until 95 is named?
Quoting duajones78413:
How long until 95 is named?


When winds become sustained at 40mph. Who knows when.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Looks a tad familiar to when Frances was an invest..
2340

DestinJeff?!?!
Quoting hydrus:
Every time I see that satellite picture I remember the 1979 Fastnet disaster.


Yeah, of course.

We don't typically get these gales for another couple of months (this is supposed to reach a height of 985mb according to the UKMO's synoptic charts), but it happens.
I am still not sold on the storm recurving out to sea, there are things that can mess up in a matter of days with the "recurvature" pattern, we are in a negative NAO, weaker highs, but doesn't mean the troughs are strong. This pattern reminds me of Frances in 2004.
Quoting Jax82:

got a piece of it and u can see the ciruation
2351. SQUAWK
2313. KanKunKid 10:25 AM EDT on August 20, 2010

Funny!
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Aug. 20th. 2010


Thanks for the update Bob!
Quoting StormW:
Storm, are you concerned about this area because it will exit Africa lower or is there another reason? Thank you for you time.

Kelley
Quoting Jax82:


That is from yesterday evening.
Is ex TD5 supposed to loop back into the Gulf for the 2nd time around?
Thanks Storm. So, let me see if I can apply what you taught me and if I understand. That means a more positive NAO is coming? Thanks
Stormw i wanted to reply to a question you posted on the blog yesterday if you dont mind.

Here's your question...

The A/B high and Icelandic low. I'm looking at it in the manner of, if you have a ridge over the U.S., which should be pumping the trof east of it, which will be the one dipping down, the strength of the trof depends on the strength of that ridge. Then east of the trof, you have the A/B high. Look at he shallow layer mean...both centers of the Atlantic ridge are weaker, which correlates to the current NAO state...the trof in the middle is weak. So my question is, and hopefully you can shed some light, is, if the western portion of the A/B high is weak near the east coast, how do we have a stronger trof in place, as in the trof being wedged in between whatever ridge is over the U.S., and then the A/B high?

All the points bolded, generally correlate well together. However, in the modeling world:

A. The framework of the models doesn't always output what we tend to correlate with reality, epecially many days out.

B. The relationships in bold, especially in model world, can easily become weaker, because models inherently must interpolate grid points via adjacent data points, and then try and integrate them over time with their given physics packages. So what is the model to do when it gets data, interpolates them into their gridpoints, and it doesn't "fit" into our preconceived notions of "ridge pumping = deeper trough"?? Well, if it sees a "flatter ridge at initialization, BUT a deeper trough, that's what it is going to depict....and remember, we are talking days and days out. The representation of these features in detail will verify FAR differently than any one model can depict them now. So it's not a matter of a model "mistakenly" doing something that is "nonsense" vs. a previous run.....the model doesn't know it ran before!!!! It is all within the chaotic noise that outputs can be at these time ranges.

adrian
20/1145 UTC 11.0N 25.7W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

SAB
Quoting kshipre1:
Storm,

can you please briefly explain the four table NAO chart that you are saying ouch about?

I can not properly read it due to the letters being blurry.

Also, are you saying ouch because of the potential track of future storms?

Thanks


Hey I know this is kinda off subject but just thought I'd let cha know, you can hold down CTRL and press + no shift key is needed and it will make the text as big as ya need it and you can do the same to make it small but use the - key, I have to do it cause my poor contacts our wore out. LOL Just thought it might help.
sheri
2363. calder
Quoting Cotillion:


Yeah, of course.

We don't typically get these gales for another couple of months (this is supposed to reach a height of 985mb according to the UKMO's synoptic charts), but it happens.


Hey, dunno if you can see my comments.. U based in scotland?
Alot will depend on the ridge of high pressure eurpoean models are starting to hint to a stronger high next week
2365. SQUAWK
Hey "killer," good to see you.

Quoting hurricane23:
Stormw i wanted to reply to a question you posted on the blog yesterday if you dont mind.

Here's your question...

The A/B high and Icelandic low. I'm looking at it in the manner of, if you have a ridge over the U.S., which should be pumping the trof east of it, which will be the one dipping down, the strength of the trof depends on the strength of that ridge. Then east of the trof, you have the A/B high. Look at he shallow layer mean...both centers of the Atlantic ridge are weaker, which correlates to the current NAO state...the trof in the middle is weak. So my question is, and hopefully you can shed some light, is, if the western portion of the A/B high is weak near the east coast, how do we have a stronger trof in place, as in the trof being wedged in between whatever ridge is over the U.S., and then the A/B high?

All the points bolded, generally correlate well together. However, in the modeling world:

A. The framework of the models doesn't always output what we tend to correlate with reality, epecially many days out.

B. The relationships in bold, especially in model world, can easily become weaker, because models inherently must interpolate grid points via adjacent data points, and then try and integrate them over time with their given physics packages. So what is the model to do when it gets data, interpolates them into their gridpoints, and it doesn't "fit" into our preconceived notions of "ridge pumping = deeper trough"?? Well, if it sees a "flatter ridge at initialization, BUT a deeper trough, that's what it is going to depict....and remember, we are talking days and days out. The representation of these features in detail will verify FAR differently than any one model can depict them now. So it's not a matter of a model "mistakenly" doing something that is "nonsense" vs. a previous run.....the model doesn't know it ran before!!!! It is all within the chaotic noise that outputs can be at these time ranges.

adrian
Quoting StormW:


Yes..and here's the kicker...talk about models, the models take it out to sea quicker than 95L.


So that would mean it gets really strong, very quickly. Or, do you feel the same about it as 95L, that the models are reading into a trough more than they should? Thanks so much :)

Kelley

2313! KanKunKid!

Too funny dude!

I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.
Quoting StormW:
Adrian, you can't have a deeper trof with a flat ridge or zonal flow. Period.


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.
2370. SQUAWK
Quoting StormW:


you can't have a deeper trof with a flat ridge or zonal flow. Period.


Got it! Thanks.
Is the High in the Central and Western Atlantic supposed to get stronger and move westward? Is there a weakness associated with this?

According to what I learned from Storm, if the high builds larger and encompasses a lot of the central and western atlantic with a weakness, it should increases chances of us land fall.
Quoting calder:


Hey, dunno if you can see my comments.. U based in scotland?


Not in Scotland, but in the UK, yes.
2375. wxhatt
Good Morning Storm,

I see things are geting more active again right on time. Should we be concerned about any potential future landfall with 95L?
2376. Jax82
Quoting StormW:
And looking at this "Supertrof" is at the least, 1 week away (west of the west coast)



Is that an ULL north of PR? If so, where is it expected to go?
2377. scott39
westward
2379. hydrus
Quoting StormW:
Its a good thing that wave is so far north....jk..
2380. scott39
StormW is right!! Listen to him.
Quoting Jax82:


Is that an ULL north of PR? If so, where is it expected to go?


Its a TUTT and its moving west
2382. 7544
we might see our first buzsaw as 95l makes its long trip but will it follow jasons track and be a fish or will the high be strong enough to keep it west stay tuned more to come
2383. SQUAWK
OK, here is the problem, quoting from Storm:

Well, right now, we are in a negative NAO (as depicted).

That weakness is not large enough to even lift my pencil north right now, let alone the weak steering past 40W.

IF anyone remembers the system that recently went out to sea, the A/B ridge was more of one center, a little closer to the CATL, stronger (when we were in the positive NAO phase, which in turn, the steering layers depicted a very strong trof/weakness in the ridge which was very pronounced, east of the U.S. east coast. ENTIRELY DIFFERENT form what you see here.


I count a reference to at least 10 different interconnected qualities or entities in that statement. I can't handle more than 2. That is why I will leave forecasting up tho you!!!! LOL
2384. scott39
95L-- No Fish!!!
2385. TGTTX
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

2313! KanKunKid!

Too funny dude!

I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.


Absolutely hilarious! Thanks much for the laugh!
2386. Relix
At least it seems like a non-Caribbean/Antilles event. Models have been quite spot on this season, and with them clustered this way... hmm. Of course, it all depends when and where it actually forms but as of now I am trusting the models AT LEAST with the out-of antilles track. Now East Coast is another thing as StormW is saying.

Quoting hurricane23:


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.
2388. wxhatt
Good Morning StormW,

I see things are geting more active again right on time. Should we be concerned about any potential future landfall with 95L?

2389. calder
Quoting Cotillion:


Not in Scotland, but in the UK, yes.


U a met?
Quoting StormW:
And looking at this "Supertrof" is at the least, 1 week away (west of the west coast)


What are you doing???The trough/low that picks it up and brings it north has not even developed yet...the beginnings of it are the trough in the central US and the Low currently forming along the stalled front off the East Coast. Trace the surface analysis and SLP forecasts for the next 6 days.
HERE is the 4 day where the trough and low that will form from the low forming from the trough that will be left by low off the coast now all meet up to create your "super trough".
BUT it won't take a trough to pull it north. If the AB rdige retreats it will go north and the ridge is supposed to strengthen but then break down as those lows come off the coast.
Yes the forecast might not pan out but all the model agree and have been consistent.

Quoting calder:


U a met?


Nope, nor have I ever claimed to be.
2393. wxhatt
Good Morning StormW!
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!
2395. Bayside
Storm, I sure hope you are wrong. I am very worried about something like an Isabel track. I sure don't want my house underwater! Notice it pulled north probably due to a weak weakness and then set back west before wreaking havoc here in VA, NC, DC, MD. Surge in the Chesapeake Bay was devastating.

I hope there's a new Blog soon this one's getting stale
Quoting StormW:
And looking at this, "Supertrof" is at the least, 1 week away (west of the west coast)



the thing about super trof though is that (if it arrives in a week) will teleconnect with mid continent ridging and east coast troffing...in fact day -7 CMC suggests east coast trof phasing with an upr low over NE quebec and something quasi-tropical moving up the eastern seaboard. If that's the case, there's yer amplified recurvature flow for the Verde system. It will be an interesting week, Senior Chief.
2398. calder
Quoting Cotillion:


Nope, nor have I ever claimed to be.


! Wasn't suggesting that you were. U a student or work?
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!


Well Central Scotland Wont Get affected it more Like the island of Northern Scotland wil Get 70mph Gusts
Quoting hurricane23:
Quoting StormW:


Well, right now, we are in a negative NAO (as depicted).

That weakness is not large enough to even lift my pencil north right now, let alone the weak steering past 40W.

IF anyone remembers the system that recently went out to sea, the A/B ridge was more of one center, a little closer to the CATL, stronger (when we were in the positive NAO phase, which in turn, the steering layers depicted a very strong trof/weakness in the ridge which was very pronounced, east of the U.S. east coast). ENTIRELY DIFFERENT from what you see here.


I remember as clear as my nose. And in Colins case it did exactly as the models forecast other than intensity. In Colins case there was almost the same weakness in the ridge only this time it is forecast to be more pronounced. Here is the map for 144 hours. Where is the ridge?? Are you saying the model is totally wrong?
Quoting hurricane23:
Stormw i wanted to reply to a question you posted on the blog yesterday if you dont mind.

Here's your question...

The A/B high and Icelandic low. I'm looking at it in the manner of, if you have a ridge over the U.S., which should be pumping the trof east of it, which will be the one dipping down, the strength of the trof depends on the strength of that ridge. Then east of the trof, you have the A/B high. Look at he shallow layer mean...both centers of the Atlantic ridge are weaker, which correlates to the current NAO state...the trof in the middle is weak. So my question is, and hopefully you can shed some light, is, if the western portion of the A/B high is weak near the east coast, how do we have a stronger trof in place, as in the trof being wedged in between whatever ridge is over the U.S., and then the A/B high?

All the points bolded, generally correlate well together. However, in the modeling world:

A. The framework of the models doesn't always output what we tend to correlate with reality, epecially many days out.

B. The relationships in bold, especially in model world, can easily become weaker, because models inherently must interpolate grid points via adjacent data points, and then try and integrate them over time with their given physics packages. So what is the model to do when it gets data, interpolates them into their gridpoints, and it doesn't "fit" into our preconceived notions of "ridge pumping = deeper trough"?? Well, if it sees a "flatter ridge at initialization, BUT a deeper trough, that's what it is going to depict....and remember, we are talking days and days out. The representation of these features in detail will verify FAR differently than any one model can depict them now. So it's not a matter of a model "mistakenly" doing something that is "nonsense" vs. a previous run.....the model doesn't know it ran before!!!! It is all within the chaotic noise that outputs can be at these time ranges.

adrian



Are the grid points "coarser" the further out the run progresses or is it just a decline in the specificity of the data?
2403. calder
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Well Central Scotland Wont Get affected it more Like the island of Northern Scotland wil Get 70mph Gusts


south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow
its still going to be a fish storm.
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!


Oooch..aye..yer in for a right nasty blow yarrgghhh.

From UKMO: "Highlands & Eilean Siar:

Severe Gales 1700 Fri 20 0500 Sat 21
South to Southwest winds will increase to severe gale force this evening and tonight with gusts of around 70mph expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Scotland for further advice on road conditions."

Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.


???
What are the chances that te A-B ridge flattens out and becomes essentially one entity, taking 95-L westward into the Carribbean?
2409. calder
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its still going to be a fish storm.


echo, echo, echo...
2411. wxhatt
Quoting Bayside:
Storm, I sure hope you are wrong. I am very worried about something like an Isabel track. I sure don't want my house underwater! Notice it pulled north probably due to a weak weakness and then set back west before wreaking havoc here in VA, NC, DC, MD. Surge in the Chesapeake Bay was devastating.



Hi, I don't think he is seeing our posts. But I remember Isabel too. It was an odd angle of approach.
Can't believe someone asked storm what he was doing!
G'Morn StormW, I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but isn't that ex-td05 exactly where you said (multiple times) it would be days ago?
Good call Chief.
Quoting StormW:


That's what we have to wait and see.

Thanks, Storm I appreciate your daily expertise .....
Quoting calder:


south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow


Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its still going to be a fish storm.

????
Thanks Storm for the map and nice explanation. So, if we are in and headed more for a negative NAO which would favor a more westward movement and higher threat for landfalls, then why are these storms forecasted to re curve?

Is it because of where the storm is located and looking at the map it will follow those areas meaning re curving?
Is it me or does this sailingallover Guy have a tude with storms opinion..calm down chicken
NEW BLOG.
2422. Vero1
NEW BLOG 5 min ago
NEW BLOG!!!!
Quoting KanKunKid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.

Now where I put sword? Too much clutter. Got to simplify life. Clean up mess.
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend


The centre of the low pressure area keeps moving east towards scotland when it is forecasted to move north...maybe mainland scotland is going to get some very strong winds.
Here is the 72 hour forecast which it has been said is "trustable".
The Ridge is retreating back east and entire east coast is one big area of trof which already exists in the central CONUS. So why the lack of trust in the models?
2427. hcubed
Had to add here, about the 61 day heatwave in Moscow.

"...The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100°Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days..."

CO2 was lower, then.