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The Atlantic is quiet; Pakistan monsoon rains continue; last day of Russian heat wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 18, 2010

A tropical wave in the Caribbean near Jamaica is generating disorganized thunderstorm activity over the central Caribbean. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west of Jamaica that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 3 - 7 days from now. A strong tropical wave currently moving off the coast of Africa is a good candidate for such a development. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras this weekend.


Figure 1. Extreme flooding along the Indus River in Pakistan has swollen the river to 16 miles (24 km) wide in sections, as seen in the top image from yesterday. For comparison, and image taken a year ago at this time in August (bottom image) shows that the Indus is normally just 1 - 2 km wide during monsoon season. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards web site.

Extreme flooding and monsoon rains continue in Pakistan
In flood-ravaged Pakistan, heavy monsoon rains hit the Punjab region in the northeastern portion of the country yesterday, dropping up to 113 mm (4.45") of precipitation. The main river in Pakistan, the Indus, continues to cause extreme flooding, and has expanded to 16 miles (24 km) wide in some sections (Figure 1.) Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change Blog, has a sister that works in Pakistan. He has a must-read analysis of the catastrophe in Pakistan, "Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Case Study".

Moscow hits 93°F on the final day of the Great Russia Heat Wave of 2010
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 34°C (93°F) today, which is 13°C (22°F) above average. However, pressures are falling rapidly and winds are picking up out ouf the southwest in advance of a powerful cold front that promises to sweep through all of European Russia tonight, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. The latest forecast for Moscow predicts Thursday's high will be just 21°C (69°F)--essentially average. With tonight's cold front will come rain to help put out the fires that continue to plague Russia with toxic smoke. Cool temperatures near of below average over the coming week will also help fire-fighting efforts.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

it looks like noaa lost their san juan page lol they have texas as our noaa page been like that since last night
Quoting WxLogic:


You know what they say... don't eat and blog at the same time as you might choke on some crazy comment... Ok ok... just made it up. Jeje...


No, no - it's don't DRINK and blog - hard to get all the liquid off the screen or out of the keyboard, LOL.
2003. WxLogic
Quoting CoopsWife:


No, no - it's don't DRINK and blog - hard to get all the liquid off the screen or out of the keyboard, LOL.


lol
Morning everyone... How is our little problem child in the carribean doing this morning. Havent had a chance to scope out the latest images yet. Gotta eat breakfast ya know!!
2006. IKE
Quoting lahurrbuff:
Morning everyone... How is our little problem child in the carribean doing this morning. Havent had a chance to scope out the latest images yet. Gotta eat breakfast ya know!!


I didn't realize the NHC went back to 10% on it. It had been at 20%.
Pat, fishing report from yesterday?
looks like the tutt to my northeast is going to be a little stronger then local mets thought
According to GFS 06z we are going to have a fish storm. No Caribbean threat, at least from that one.
if the system continues west. and is a tropical storm or week hurricane it could miss the weakness in the ridge near 50-60W
IKE.....I just realized that they dropped it to 10% myself. Shear appears to be increasing as it nears the gulf. I imagine that and its lack of consolidation was their reasoning! But thats just my opinion.
Quoting Chavalito:
According to GFS 06z we are going to have a fish storm. No Caribbean threat, at least from that one.



well dont get to comfortable with the models they keep changing and until there is a well defined low everything is truley just IF's it still to far out undeveloped etc etc etc but it is interesting to see them pulling it north
Final thoughts before school:
theres a disturbance off africa that the NHC should begin highlighting pretty soon.... preferably today... as most models develop it within 72 hours. Overall activity should begin to really ramp up over the next 84 hours or so.
Quoting bappit:

I could have sworn Rita had that honor. Over 100 killed in the evacuation according to a subsequent Jeff Masters blog. Certainly Rita had the deadliest evacuation.


True... don't know the precise numbers but the information on this site was sufficient for me to decide to wait an extra day before leaving... which went doing nothing
Quoting lahurrbuff:
Morning everyone... How is our little problem child in the carribean doing this morning. Havent had a chance to scope out the latest images yet. Gotta eat breakfast ya know!!


I think "festering" would describe it and although it is a medical term (sort of, well, unless there was an Addams family I missed somewhere along the line) I think it fits. Not organizing, not growing, not staying in one place, just festering.
If the models are right, NHC might mention it tomorrow, providing the AOI is sufficiently noteworthy in appearance.
I love how the EURO loops xTD5 back around to the GOM for another try, landfalling again in Louisiana.

Edit: "This is the song that never ends..."
gigocasting... using computer models more than 96 hours out for discussing landfalls or lack thereof (Garbage In Garbage Out... the errors in initialization are too large... we don't know what the butterflies are doing!)
Thank you very much for the reply, StormW

Furthermore, the CMC model is a major hurricane in the Atlantic, the GFS is also a major hurricane

By the way, can someone please post the link to see the European model?.
2020. IKE
System in the eastern ATL is on it's way. I imagine the NHC highlights it on the next TWO. I think the odds of this being a threat to the USA are low. Maybe a 10% chance.

Quoting Vince2005:
Thank you very much for the reply, StormW

Furthermore, the CMC model is a major hurricane in the Atlantic, the GFS is also a major hurricane

By the way, can someone please post the link to see the European model?.


Give it a couple of minutes to load...Link
Quoting wfyweather:
Final thoughts before school:
theres a disturbance off africa that the NHC should begin highlighting pretty soon.... preferably today... as most models develop it within 72 hours. Overall activity should begin to really ramp up over the next 84 hours or so.


Really!! thanks for the sit rep ill check that out lol...sorry couldnt resist
Good morning world. Finally managed wring a little moisture out of this humidity. Got a whopping 1/4" rain yesterday. Now the dust is mud.
Quoting EnergyMoron:
gigocasting... using computer models more than 96 hours out for discussing landfalls or lack thereof (Garbage In Garbage Out... the errors in initialization are too large... we don't know what the butterflies are doing!)


kaos theory refrence nice!
Quoting DestinJeff:


10% really? Based on what science? I mean I can see 9.7%, but certainly not as high as 10%.

Wishcaster!



LOL....(cleaning spewed coffee off the key board)
Looks like the 850mb vorticies are starting to stack up nicely in the area the NOGAPS has been predicting a storm to develope. What are your thoughts on this StormW?
Quoting DestinJeff:


10% really? Based on what science? I mean I can see 9.7%, but certainly not as high as 10%.

Wishcaster!


LMAO
Quoting DestinJeff:
I for one am glad we can rest easy along the coast knowing that the GFS system is headed to sea. At least now I don't have to pay any attention...thank goodness for the 06Z GFS!


Yeah, were all safe now. We can throw the cars keys on the counter, beak out that carton of twinkies we've been saving for the trip out and switch over to hard liquor.
Quoting CoopsWife:


No, no - it's don't DRINK and blog - hard to get all the liquid off the screen or out of the keyboard, LOL.


Spilled a smoothie on my keyboard last week....LMAO It still works too.

Quiet before the storm.....s
2032. Patrap
Quoting weatherpending:
Pat, fishing report from yesterday?


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.

Quoting DestinJeff:


10% really? Based on what science? I mean I can see 9.7%, but certainly not as high as 10%.

Wishcaster!



Smarta$$!!!LOL!
Quoting DestinJeff:
I for one am glad we can rest easy along the coast knowing that the GFS system is headed to sea. At least now I don't have to pay any attention...thank goodness for the 06Z GFS!
They are just models, sometimes they are correct, sometimes not; it is too far out in time, distance, and not developed yet. I'd pay attention maybe every couple of days for now. As of now though, nothing worth watching for hours a day, maybe a 2 minute peak every other day. Your news will let you know if anything might threaten your area in advance. Have a nice day and maybe check back Sunday evening. Three days out if your area is in the cone, I'd advise you to be a bit concerned and start preps at that point. If you start telling people a storm is comming this far out, before it is anything, or is going out to sea, they will laugh cause there is no storm. Do not worry, eventually some area from Georgia to Texas and all points in between will be threatened in 2010, and probably several areas; just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now.
And whats this silliness about Dwpoint5? It ain't dead yet?
AOI/XX/XX
I'd be hurt if this guy poofed me, LOL
2040. IKE
***Drama on the blogs***

Got my coffee and pecan swirls. WOOHOO!
Good morning Storm,

Great to see you as always. I have a quick question for you if I may. Given the ridge of high pressure in the atlantic, do you forecast this to move even more westward? The reason I ask is because as we have seen so far this season, several upper level troughs have swooped down and eroded the ridge eastward causing the northward turn into the Atlantic. What is the reason so many of these troughs have formed and do you see them stopping at some point?

I know you mentioned that no two seasons are alike but I do not recall this many troughs and ULL’s in the 04, 05 and 08 seasons. Thank you as always.
StormW - I was talking about the area in the carribean around the Honduras area.
2044. Patrap
When something spinning approaches da Leewards.


owl be Bock..
Quoting IKE:
***Drama on the blogs***

Got my coffee and pecan swirls. WOOHOO!


I'll trade you my weather for a pecan swirl.
2046. angiest
1986 - Nice to know I haven't been the only one thinking that, with widespread warmth, there is no reason for tropical cyclones to form!

Question, does anyone know which satellites NOAA uses to come up with the SST charts?
Quoting DestinJeff:
I for one am glad we can rest easy along the coast knowing that the GFS system is headed to sea. At least now I don't have to pay any attention...thank goodness for the 06Z GFS!


For the second wave?
Quoting StormW:


LOL IKE!

What happened to the popcorn?
come on storm one can eat only so much popcorn

morning all
Quoting sebastianflorida:
They are just models, sometimes they are correct, sometimes not; it is too far out in time, distance, and not developed yet. I'd pay attention maybe every couple of days for now. As of now though, nothing worth watching for hours a day, maybe a 2 minute peak every other day. Your news will let you know if anything might threaten your area in advance. Have a nice day and maybe check back Sunday evening. Three days out if your area is in the cone, I'd advise you to be a bit concerned and start preps at that point. If you start telling people a storm is comming this far out, before it is anything, or is going out to sea, they will laugh cause there is no storm. Do not worry, eventually some area from Georgia to Texas and all points in between will be threatened in 2010, and probably several areas; just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now.


Yeah Jeff, there just models and "just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now"

Apparently, some have already, "switched over"
Latest ASCAT. Getting closer to a complete circulation, just need to close off the northern part.


Guys this is NOT a guaranteed fish yet, it hasn't even formed yet. Don't declare it a fish until we have more models come into line and if the steering agrees.
Quoting Patrap:


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.

No Kilos? ;(
Whats the story on TD5? Is it gonna come around for yet another encore?
Quoting Patrap:


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.



Nice! Specs have been few and far between over here lately but the Reds have been thick.
Quoting weatherpending:


Nice! Specs have been few and far between over here lately but the Reds have been thick.



Same here in Warrington.
2058. Patrap
Quoting weatherpending:


Nice! Specs have been few and far between over here lately but the Reds have been thick.


I had a nice red,,but alas he spit da hook and I cussed.

LOL
2060. Patrap
Your here..

LOL
Quoting SFlKatCane5:
there is no tropical weather. why is this blog so busy?

unemployment / laziness in america must be VERY HIGH, especially for people who are overly interested in watching clouds go by, huh? lol!!!!


This isn't busy....
Quoting reedzone:
Guys this is NOT a guaranteed fish yet, it hasn't even formed yet. Don't declare it a fish until we have more models come into line and if the steering agrees.
i stop calling a fish storm because its way down to the south and its moving west to.
2063. IKE
Quoting StormW:


LOL IKE!

What happened to the popcorn?


Too early in the morning. Got a bag lined up for the afternoon crew.
2064. Patrap
4 million page views the Night Ike struck and the day before.

Now dat twas busy.
2065. fishcop
Quoting SFlKatCane5:
there is no tropical weather. why is this blog so busy?

unemployment / laziness in america must be VERY HIGH, especially for people who are overly interested in watching clouds go by, huh? lol!!!!


says you who is blogging too...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Same here in warrington.


Been tearing up the reds at daybreak with top water cranks. Big boys too. Loads of fun but they shut off within an hour or so. Had a little luck with specs on live shrimp and a slipper.
Thanks for the update storm. I guess if this trend stops in the next 4-5 days then Florida and the east coast better watch out! Please correct me if I am wrong but the second monster wave coming off of Africa is supposed to threaten land more so than the first system? Have a great day.
resume of a cloud watcher

strong tendency to stare at the sky!
no fear of lightning!
tropical weather a plus!
The Tropical Wave will be something that we will need to watch as it is most likely going to be a long track Cape Verde system. Should be Invest 95L later today and the track is VERY UNCERTAIN at this point. Nothing set in stone. Not fish, not USA impact, we don't know yet. Just because models are consistent in a storm that hasn't even formed recurving doesn't mean it's going to happen. The models may shift westward over the next few days as the NAO goes positive.
2071. angiest
Quoting weatherpending:


Nice! Specs have been few and far between over here lately but the Reds have been thick.


Specs? Specs are not so rare here:

Link
2072. Patrap
We call square groupers,,"Retirement Reds" here.

Quoting SFlKatCane5:
there is no tropical weather. why is this blog so busy?

unemployment / laziness in america must be VERY HIGH, especially for people who are overly interested in watching clouds go by, huh? lol!!!!


I'm in Mexico being lazy and unemployed I'll have you know...
And the clouds? The clouds are watching me! waiting for he chance to squash me like a bug, or whatever they have in mind, but they seem angry down here.
2074. IKE
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.
2075. NEwxguy
Wow,the trolls are up early,what's with that?
Quoting StormW:


LMAO! Square Grouper.
Not Square Hip. And yes one might help with the retirement fund.
wow!!!!!
2079. angiest
Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from the following:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts.
Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from
January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall.


GFS is showing a neutral to positive NAO later in the forecast period, and Euro has totally reversed itself from the extremely negative NAO to going slightly positive.
Looks like we will get development off of Africa after all. I could see a potential long range CONUS threat from this. I wonder when the NHC will start keeping tabs on this.

Anyways, today is my 2-year anniversary of WU membership. Thanks to all who have helped me grow as a future meteorologist. =)
Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.


LMAO, Ike. And just wait an hour or so and #2 will be checked off.
ULL north of the antilles spinning nicely
2084. Patrap




Tennessee rain washes away home, derails train
Published: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 7:37 AM Updated: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 7:40 AM


Deluged Tennessee saw more rain early Thursday a day after flooding swept away a home, trapped drivers in their vehicles and derailed a train.

Heavy rainfall has soaked some of the same parts of Middle Tennessee that were inundated with severe flooding in May, and forecasters are warning that more rain is expected.

And forecasters were expecting more heavy showers to fall over the Southeast.


The downpours that began Wednesday hit some of the same parts of Middle Tennessee that were inundated with severe flooding in May, but forecasters don't foresee it wreaking the same kind of havoc. Portions of Middle and East Tennessee as well as areas of southern Kentucky and western North Carolina and Virginia have been under flash flood warnings or watches.

A round of heavy rain set off fresh flash flooding just northeast of Nashville early Thursday.

National Weather Service forecaster John Cohen near Nashville said 4 to 6 inches of rain deluged an area along the Sumner County-Wilson County line, beginning around 10 p.m. Wednesday and lasting about five hours.

"Areas northeast (of Nashville) really got hit hard," Cohen said.

"There were a few water rescues in the Mt. Juliet area and a number of roads were closed in Gallatin," Cohen said.

The system had weakened considerably and moved eastward by sunrise.

Much of the damage in Tennessee on Wednesday was in Putnam County, where a home floated off its foundation and a train carrying sand derailed when the tracks were washed away. Roads were washed out and some minor bridges were affected, but no injuries or deaths were reported, Tennessee Emergency Management Agency spokesman Jeremy Heidt said.

Officials were awaiting sunrise on Thursday to reassess the flooding.

"We'll see what daylight brings, but hopefully we'll be OK," Heidt said early Thursday.

No fatalities or injuries had been reported to state officials, he said.

The National Weather Service declared a flash flood watch for all of eastern Tennessee for Friday, including the cities of Chattanooga, Knoxville and Johnson City.

Two to four inches of additional rain were possible from early morning until nearly noon.

In Macon County, Sheriff Mark Gammons said emergency officials evacuated about 50 nursing home residents on Wednesday from a facility near a rising creek as a precaution.

The remnants of Tropical Depression 5 were interacting with a weak front over the region, creating waves of moderate to heavy rainfall, but officials did not expect the kind of massive flooding that hit Nashville on May 1.

"It's kind of similar, but moving through at a much quicker pace, which will keep the rainfall amounts well below what we saw in May," said James LaRosa, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Nashville.

Heidt said some areas had received 3-7 inches Wednesday and could get several more inches of rain Thursday. He said the National Guard was on standby in case waters started to rise and rescues were needed.

The floods in May killed 22 people in Tennessee and caused over $2 billion in damage in Nashville alone. Record two-day rains swelled the Cumberland River.

Bob Sneed, water management section chief for the Nashville division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said the agency is monitoring the situation, but so far the only problems are flash flooding along some streams.

Putnam County Sheriff David K. Andrews said a rescue team had to pull two women off the roof of their car after it was trapped in floodwaters northwest of Cookeville. Three people were rescued from a van that was washed off a county road by flood waters in Overton County, Mayor Kenneth Copeland said.

About 20 people had to be rescued from their homes due to rising flood waters, but all were doing fine and staying with relatives, Copeland said. The county has not had to open any shelters, he said.

"We're thankful and real fortunate," he said.
Quoting Patrap:




Tennessee rain washes away home, derails train
Published: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 7:37 AM Updated: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 7:40 AM


Deluged Tennessee saw more rain early Thursday a day after flooding swept away a home, trapped drivers in their vehicles and derailed a train.

Heavy rainfall has soaked some of the same parts of Middle Tennessee that were inundated with severe flooding in May, and forecasters are warning that more rain is expected.

And forecasters were expecting more heavy showers to fall over the Southeast.


The downpours that began Wednesday hit some of the same parts of Middle Tennessee that were inundated with severe flooding in May, but forecasters don't foresee it wreaking the same kind of havoc. Portions of Middle and East Tennessee as well as areas of southern Kentucky and western North Carolina and Virginia have been under flash flood warnings or watches.

A round of heavy rain set off fresh flash flooding just northeast of Nashville early Thursday.

National Weather Service forecaster John Cohen near Nashville said 4 to 6 inches of rain deluged an area along the Sumner County-Wilson County line, beginning around 10 p.m. Wednesday and lasting about five hours.

"Areas northeast (of Nashville) really got hit hard," Cohen said.

"There were a few water rescues in the Mt. Juliet area and a number of roads were closed in Gallatin," Cohen said.

The system had weakened considerably and moved eastward by sunrise.

Much of the damage in Tennessee on Wednesday was in Putnam County, where a home floated off its foundation and a train carrying sand derailed when the tracks were washed away. Roads were washed out and some minor bridges were affected, but no injuries or deaths were reported, Tennessee Emergency Management Agency spokesman Jeremy Heidt said.

Officials were awaiting sunrise on Thursday to reassess the flooding.

"We'll see what daylight brings, but hopefully we'll be OK," Heidt said early Thursday.

No fatalities or injuries had been reported to state officials, he said.

The National Weather Service declared a flash flood watch for all of eastern Tennessee for Friday, including the cities of Chattanooga, Knoxville and Johnson City.

Two to four inches of additional rain were possible from early morning until nearly noon.

In Macon County, Sheriff Mark Gammons said emergency officials evacuated about 50 nursing home residents on Wednesday from a facility near a rising creek as a precaution.

The remnants of Tropical Depression 5 were interacting with a weak front over the region, creating waves of moderate to heavy rainfall, but officials did not expect the kind of massive flooding that hit Nashville on May 1.

"It's kind of similar, but moving through at a much quicker pace, which will keep the rainfall amounts well below what we saw in May," said James LaRosa, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Nashville.

Heidt said some areas had received 3-7 inches Wednesday and could get several more inches of rain Thursday. He said the National Guard was on standby in case waters started to rise and rescues were needed.

The floods in May killed 22 people in Tennessee and caused over $2 billion in damage in Nashville alone. Record two-day rains swelled the Cumberland River.

Bob Sneed, water management section chief for the Nashville division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said the agency is monitoring the situation, but so far the only problems are flash flooding along some streams.

Putnam County Sheriff David K. Andrews said a rescue team had to pull two women off the roof of their car after it was trapped in floodwaters northwest of Cookeville. Three people were rescued from a van that was washed off a county road by flood waters in Overton County, Mayor Kenneth Copeland said.

About 20 people had to be rescued from their homes due to rising flood waters, but all were doing fine and staying with relatives, Copeland said. The county has not had to open any shelters, he said.

"We're thankful and real fortunate," he said.


Well, let's be thankful that nobody is hurt. Hopefully, it will stay that way.
Bostwick says the second wave is a fish.

If I'm not mistaken he said the same thing about IKE.
2087. angiest
Quoting StormW:


Euro did the same thing on it's previous 2 runs.

The CFS forecast goes against a positive NAO setup for Sep.


At least it explains the GFS' track. And at least 06Z GFS is somewhat believable, with a strong trough pulling the storm north. Last night, on the 18Z, all I could see was this little 1011mb low pulling that storm up, and I couldn't believe that one.

BTW, the current GFS indicates that someone in northern Europe might get a very potent system from the extratropical remains of this system.
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Looks like we will get development off of Africa after all. I could see a potential long range CONUS threat from this. I wonder when the NHC will start keeping tabs on this.

Anyways, today is my 2-year anniversary of WU membership. Thanks to all who have helped me grow as a future meteorologist. =)
XD. I think I've only been here a year and a half. I think. So you joined before I did. =)

And I'm really getting bored with this season. We haven't had much happen except a hurricane, which I will give credit for...it was quite interesting, a tropical storm which hit FL and then dissipated thereafter, and then had a tropical storm, that was kind of interesting...being that it regenerated, and two tropical depressions. I guess because they've been spaced out, I've become bored. But, things should get interesting as we enter the last part of August and the month of September.

Does anyone know when the next big pulse of MJO is coming?
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
wow!!!!!
I guess I got a dirty mind, but the shape of that wave just don't look right.
2090. angiest
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Well, let's be thankful that nobody is hurt. Hopefully, it will stay that way.


The second largely unknown flood in TN this year.
The Blue Angels just took off.

Boy are they loud!
Quoting angiest:


Specs? Specs are not so rare here:

Link
I finally visited Spec's Liquor for the first time a few weeks ago after all these years.
The Barometer Bob Show for August 19, 2010!

Listen to the show as I discuss the tropics and current weather across the Nation. As well as Weather News from around the world.
I will be talking what the Tropics have in store for us. My guest will be Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
If you would like to ask a question during the show, join us in Storm Chat at Hurricane Hollow Weather. Please use a nickname when you join.

The show starts at 8pm/et and you can listen live at WRBN.Net.

Interesting show tonight!
2095. angiest
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I finally visited Spec's Liquor for the first time a few weeks ago after all these years.


Have yet to go to the downtown/midtown location, despite commuting past it for a few years.

Now we do have a good sized one in Katy, plus a "neighborhood" Specs as well.



Lookin' Good!
Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from the following:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes 6 Months in Advance

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east, is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall.


I'm just saying that models are useless when the storm hasn't even formed. I'm not really "west" casting it, but the models should trend back and forth from west to east until it latches on to a system. I actually laughed when it had the storm hit me a few days ago at 276 hours.
Ok, I am sorry to ask this again but since I am still learning about these tropical terminologies, does a negative NAO mean greater probability of landfall and positive means more chances or re curvature? Did I have this the other way around?

Sorry. I am not as advanced as most people in this chat room and would like to understand the synopsis. What relationship does this have with the number of troughs slowing down in comparison to the strong High in the atlantic? Can you please answer this storm? Thanks
Quoting StormW:


Thanks Storm.
Quoting angiest:


Have yet to go to the downtown/midtown location, despite commuting past it for a few years.

Now we do have a good sized one in Katy, plus a "neighborhood" Specs as well.
The downtown one is the original, correct? The one I went to was in League City.
Quoting cyclonekid:
XD. I think I've only been here a year and a half. I think. So you joined before I did. =)

And I'm really getting bored with this season. We haven't had much happen except a hurricane, which I will give credit for...it was quite interesting, a tropical storm which hit FL and then dissipated thereafter, and then had a tropical storm, that was kind of interesting...being that it regenerated, and two tropical depressions. I guess because they've been spaced out, I've become bored. But, things should get interesting as we enter the last part of August and the month of September.

Does anyone know when the next big pulse of MJO is coming?


Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.
2102. angiest
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
The downtown one is the original, correct? The one I went to was in League City.


I don't know if it is the original, but it spans a few blocks along Louisiana Street.
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:


Well, let's just say there is a strong chance that we'll get our most interesting storm just as I start school. =|

As for landfalls, I am particularly concerned for the East and Gulf Coasts, especially during the next few weeks.
I start next Wednesday. So things will JUST be starting to ramp up.
Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.


It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.
I remember at the very beginning of the season some people on here (maybe Storm being one of them) stated that because of the atmospheric conditions, Texas was going to be in the bull's eye, so to speak. It started out that way with the first two storms. My question is, what changed, if anything, and are the chance of a Texas hit less now? Sure not complaining if the chances are less, just curious.
Quoting spartankicker:


It's not west-casting, it's looking at the possibility the the ridge will move/strengthen further west than expected. It doesn't hurt to look at all the possibilities this far out, because absolutely nothing can be ruled out yet. For all we know, something unforseen might happen and kill this wave off and nothing happens.


Models should start shifting back and forth until we actually have a system to track. The out to sea scenario is not certain.
2110. angiest
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have s stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


This is what I was asking about yesterday but didn't have time to elaborate. When the high is stronger, that is, the central pressure is higher, the high overall seems more compact, which gives a path for storms to follow north. When the high is weaker, it spreads out more, removing that path, or at least moving it further west.
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


Ohh I see, that's a great explanation StormW, thanks.
Quoting StormW:
Westcasting always cracked me up anyway.

What is the predominate flow on the southern periphery of a ridge?


West
Quoting StormW:


What I was referring to was the part of the positive NAO moving the system further west. Folks kind of get the negative and positive phases mixed up. Based on that research article, I have a tendency to look at the NAO in this way: I see folks already talking about the infamous "east coast trof" and re-curvature.

In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

And folks still confuse the weaker high with "a weakness"...not the same thing. Even though the ridging is weaker, IT'S STILL ridging. And if you have a weaker break in the ridge, it's gonna be a little harder to achieve recurvature.


Thats the perfect example of why people need to realize that what makes a year active, more active, less active is because of a slew of different variables not just one thing. Sea surface temps, sal, nao, mjo, trades, shear, troughs...the list goes on. No one thing is gonna change the pattern completely one way or another.
Still a yellow hatch on the NHC site, they moved it slightly south......looks to be a non-threat to the US, other than that, have a productive and healthy thursday......
2116. angiest
Quoting StormW:


Now see, you got it!


:D
2117. Thaale
Regarding NAO, recurvature, and storm tracks, listen to Jeff Masters's radio show Hurricane Haven from last week. He is asked about the NAO and steering and his answer is that he hasn't really looked at the NAO because it is not an important factor for steering, either in the short or long term. He says it's important in the winter, with the implication being that it's not important now.

This matches the conclusions of the NOAA paper StormW has linked to, which refers to the NAO's effects on late fall / winter systems from October-February. Not August.

http://audio-ecast.wunderground.com/wubroadcast/Hurricane_Haven_08_10_10.mp3

Start at the 14:15 mark for Dr. Masters's take on NAO.
2118. angiest
Storm, you said:


In a meteorlogical sense, answer this question: In a negative NAO, meaning the Icelandic low and A/B high are weaker, meaning a weaker ridge in the Atlantic...how are you going to have stronger trof for recurvature? Kinda makes sense to me that if you have a weaker high flowing into a trof, then the trof has to be weaker as well. That's all I heard in the 2008 season with storms like IKE and such...the trof, the trof.

Do you know of anything showing what the NAO was then? It fits in with the "stronger storms go north" mantra. Yeah, that may be preferred, but ultimately you have to look at the environment an individual storm is in to determine whether or not that is true. This is why I always caution people not to let their guards down when it looks like a storm is not coming to them.
Henry Margusity says NOT to believe the models and don't follow them as gods. He says it's too early and that the East Coast should watch it. He also did the math, there will be 24 runs of the models before it is near anywhere. I believe him, too far out to call a USA threat or a Fish storm.
2123. Prgal
Good morning! Storm, one of our local mets mentioned that there was an upgrade done to the GFS recently and that it was not working properly. What are your thoughts on this?
2124. Thaale
Quoting StormW:


You missed the point of the paper, and what I just posted. I have to respectfully disagree with Dr. Masters on the NAO. IT DOES play a role in steering. What you just mentioed here ( winter systems from October-February. Not August) sets up the "CONDITIONS" for steering storms in the hurricane season. Look at the following, and tell me what you see:



These two seasons were predominately negative NAO patterns....what can you tell me about the Cape Verde systems? Yes some recurves, but how sharp? and U.S. Strikes in general?




Fair enough, Storm, but your argument's not with me. It's with Dr. Masters. I'm just a conduit to his very different opinion.
Quoting reedzone:


West


lol
2127. angiest
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...post 2120


Thank you.
ECMWF has a lock on the development of the Verde system..but its kinda interesting over the GOMEX in the model world at and beyond day 6. As the upper ridge currently just W of FL transits west, it leaves a weakness in the northern gulf in its wake...good onshore flow for the Nrn gulf coast....and -ve thickness anomalies over the area start to appear pretty quickly in most ensemble members by Aug 25th. Apparently Patrap hasn't experienced enough convection yet this year..keep the video cam handy :)
NEW BLOG
2130. unf97
Good morning everyone!!!!!!!
Quoting Patrap:


9 Specks,,2 FLounder's, assorted mudcats..and a sunburn.



What about the elusive beer buzz fish?
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Thats the perfect example of why people need to realize that what makes a year active, more active, less active is because of a slew of different variables not just one thing. Sea surface temps, sal, nao, mjo, trades, shear, troughs...the list goes on. No one thing is gonna change the pattern completely one way or another.


You left out Granny's bunion, it's never been wrong.
Quoting IKE:
From last Saturday...

1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010


Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now.

........................................


#1....check.


JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!
2134. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:


JFV would be perfect to complete item #2. Hey, maybe we could take predictions on who will be the one to complete each item on the list. Go Ike!


lol
ok so, if I understand storm correctly, a strong high with practically no weakness in it will cause recurvature and a high with some weakness brings less chance of recurving and greter chance of westward movement of storms?

thanks storm. good explanation
Quoting sebastianflorida:
They are just models, sometimes they are correct, sometimes not; it is too far out in time, distance, and not developed yet. I'd pay attention maybe every couple of days for now. As of now though, nothing worth watching for hours a day, maybe a 2 minute peak every other day. Your news will let you know if anything might threaten your area in advance. Have a nice day and maybe check back Sunday evening. Three days out if your area is in the cone, I'd advise you to be a bit concerned and start preps at that point. If you start telling people a storm is comming this far out, before it is anything, or is going out to sea, they will laugh cause there is no storm. Do not worry, eventually some area from Georgia to Texas and all points in between will be threatened in 2010, and probably several areas; just waiot and keep a half an eye on thinghs for now.
Uh, I think that was a joke Sebastion...
Howdy all...