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The Atlantic is quiet; a remarkable flu map

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on October 24, 2009

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure has become disorganized, thanks to the presence of a large amount of dry air. This disturbance will get absorbed by a cold front Sunday and is not a threat to develop. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled to fly into the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled. There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Flu season comes early
As you've probably heard, there's an H1N1 flu pandemic going on. Here in Michigan, flu hit big time this week, with absentee rates hitting 30% in many school districts. Wunderground has a flu map that we update each week (Figure 1), and it's a remarkable-looking one today. All but four states have gone red (widespread flu, the highest outbreak level). I doubt the flu map has looked like this since 1968, the last time a flu pandemic swept the globe. For those of you who've never visited our flu map page, a typical peak flu outbreak occurs in February or March, and at most twenty states are colored red.


Figure 1. It's safe to say that the U.S. is in the midst of a flu pandemic--just four states are not experiencing widespread outbreaks of flu.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Superpete - where are you in Savannah? Raining hard? Just curious - I know the flooding there can get pretty intense...we have a house in Richmond Hill but we live in San Diego now.
Quoting xcool: 5:14 PM EDT on October 25, 2009
Saints lost


Oh you of little faith!
Green dots are starting to form on Oklahoma and Eastern Texas radar. Storms are set to intensify in those regions along the cold front within the next hour or so.
Quoting Magicchaos:
Green dots are starting to form on Oklahoma and Eastern Texas radar. Storms are set to intensify in those regions along the cold front within the next hour or so.


Quoting Patrap:




Never call destiny before the Fat Gurl whines..

LOL

Where's CycloneOz..?

He owes me more money...


THE DOLPHINS LOSE..
Quoting dolphingalrules:


THE DOLPHINS LOSE..


ok, well it wont let me put a plus sign on front of my one :/

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 25OCT)
=========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots
TODAY WAS A BEAUTIFUL DAY..THE LOCAL WEATHER PEOPLE SHOULD BE SHOT...THEY SAID THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE WET WITH A 60% NEVER RAIN...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
428. KH,

I believe the link to the graph in your post may be for another, different or all flus?

But the graph on the CDC H1N1 page has a huge spike on the end.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

Whatever the color-scheme, they mean the same thing. I do believe it only takes professionals a few seconds to change the color -- just saying.


Dear Awake,

Yes, a great way to make a normal (if early) flu season seem scary. The graph I link to is for deaths caused by the flu, of whatever stripe -- showing deaths that can be blamed on all flus, including AH1N1. That "huge spike graph" you mention is labeled "Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet), National Summary 2008-2009 and Previous Two Seasons" -- in other words -- how many people, panicked by the coverage in the press have run to their doctor or emergency room because they are afraid that they might have the dreaded (but generally even-less-than-normally-serious) swine flu.

The real story is that this flu season, at least as far as deaths are concerned, with or without the mis-named swine flu, is just like the last four or five years, though Spring 2008 was much much worse.

-Kip
Pat nice game, as you called the first successful prediction of the year, but it just goes to show you way conservative never win, you must always look forward to the future as the past is just a memory.
I think I see a swirl...oh wait...that's just in the eyes of Dolphin fans :)...I still can't believe it.
Has Grothar been on today? Or did the Three Stooges do him in yesterday?
Quoting portcharlotte:
I hope Doc Masters doesn't bring up Cancer next...or we'll have a week of cancer discussion. I've lost enough family from cancer and other diseases. I really think this is a weather blog. If you follow clean hygene and take precautions you can avoid the flu. The weather does not enhance the germ..people do. Cold or hot there will be a flu.

My advice is to live everyday to the fullest and not worry about every disease out there...

Let's talk weather..if you want to discuss medicine go to a medical blog or disease blog


Dear portcharlotte,

With ya there...I don't know why Dr. Jeff posted a "extra-scary" version of the CDC's flu map in his daily tropical weather blog....ask him. I'm just trying to sail safely here in the Caribbean. Ain't no flu-phobia down here.

-Kip
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has Grothar been on today? Or did the Three Stooges do him in yesterday?


LOL

I'm not sure, I havent heard from him yet :P
Quoting gordydunnot:
514 you are the typical fan down here in Fl. So jump on somebodies else band wagon, maybe your daddy or grand daddy was born there, or you just hated it there, so you moved here.


come on :/
520. xcool
CaicosRetiredSailor lol and pat lol
Quoting KipHansen:


Dear Awake,

Yes, a great way to make a normal (if early) flu season seem scary. The graph I link to is for deaths caused by the flu, of whatever stripe -- showing deaths that can be blamed on all flus, including AH1N1. That "huge spike graph" you mention is labeled "Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet), National Summary 2008-2009 and Previous Two Seasons" -- in other words -- how many people, panicked by the coverage in the press have run to their doctor or emergency room because they are afraid that they might have the dreaded (but generally even-less-than-normally-serious) swine flu.

The real story is that this flu season, at least as far as deaths are concerned, with or without the mis-named swine flu, is just like the last four or five years, though Spring 2008 was much much worse.

-Kip


I agree 100% Kip....These graphics just enhance phobias and scares people...It reminds me when the government used to post the color codes for terrorist warnings. It was just there to make people buy into the threat. Maybe Doc Masters has some flu vaccine stock.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

From here I just don't see how these storms will be remarkable, but localwx are predicting inches of rain.
523. JRRP
who remember that

521 are you saying the doc is a friend of Bush and Chaney as I know Chaney had major positions in Tami flu production and there were the creators of the 5 color terrorist alert warnings, that happened to go up just as oil prices went down before each election cycle. By the way there wasn't even a cloud in S. Fl. today.
Quoting melwerle:
Superpete - where are you in Savannah? Raining hard? Just curious - I know the flooding there can get pretty intense...we have a house in Richmond Hill but we live in San Diego now.
He is not in Savannah, Ga. We have a Savannah in Grand Cayman and that is where he lives.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #91
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (T0920)
9:00 AM JST October 26 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Lupit (980 hPa) located at 27.5N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast at 18 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 35.8N 143.7E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 46.0N 156.5E - EXTRATROPICAL
516 Man, I can't stand ignorance.Lest just put all our heads in the sand, and wonder why anything occurs,that way maybe we can blame it on this God, or that God. I'm out tonight lest I be banned for life.
Quoting dolphingalrules:
TODAY WAS A BEAUTIFUL DAY..THE LOCAL WEATHER PEOPLE SHOULD BE SHOT...THEY SAID THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE WET WITH A 60% NEVER RAIN...
That is not mean it will rain. That just means that if 10 days have the same conditions, 6 of those days would have rain, but 4 will not.
Quoting gordydunnot:
521 are you saying the doc is a friend of Bush and Chaney as I know Chaney had major positions in Tami flu production and there were the creators of the 5 color terrorist alert warnings, that happened to go up just as oil prices went down before each election cycle. By the way there wasn't even a cloud in S. Fl.


today.


That's pretty funny!
530. xcool


Quoting gordydunnot:
521 are you saying the doc is a friend of Bush and Chaney as I know Chaney had major positions in Tami flu production and there were the creators of the 5 color terrorist alert warnings, that happened to go up just as oil prices went down before each election cycle.


Don't forget...our former V.P Dick Cheney voted as a congressman against the release of Nelson Mandela, instituting a holiday for Martin Luther King, Jr., Head Start and more. With that track record, I wonder why he bashes Pres. Obama so much?
Quoting mossyhead:
That is not mean it will rain. That just means that if 10 days have the same conditions, 6 of those days would have rain, but 4 will not.
Not so much. The NWS POPS (probability of precipitation) are based on coverage, not on the chance of rain in an exact location. If there is a 60% chance of precip in Tampa, let's say, then a correct forecast would mean 60% of the area of Tampa would have experienced precipitation.
531 now I am feeling bad about my earlier post. It just goes to show you, you seldom know some one until you meet them.Oops, thank you for the proper spelling on the VP.
Slow on the weather scene.
Please, no politics here, for that go to a CNN or a FOX blog. This is a weather blog!
Alright 534, I am totally confused now. I am turning in now, to watch a Clock Work Orange to see if I can figure this out.
Quoting originalLT:
Please, no politics here, for that go to a CNN or a FOX blog. This is a weather blog!


Agree....please give us your opinion on the current weather situation.
535 start talking weather and quit complaining.
Welcome to the Weather Underground Blog, home of swine flu, politics, football, and an occasional weather post :P

Quoting gordydunnot:
535 start talking weather and quit complaining.


????
Weather and politics do mix...enough $ for a new QS satellite....studies into Climate Change...the flu season, etc.
well I'll be back on later tonight when the blog is hopefully in a better mood :/
Is this the SEX, DRUGS, and Rock-n-Roll blog.....LOL
Who is in a bad mood Matt?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is in a bad mood Matt?


not a bad mood, its just odd I guess :P
lol Tim....just not a lot to talk about. I think we may get one more named storm this season, something forming near the CONUS. BTW, do any of the long-range models show a cold front making it all the through so. Fla.?
549. xcool
lol
xcool...what site do you get those animated maps from? I know it it's an NOAA site, but how do you navigate to them?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Not so much. The NWS POPS (probability of precipitation) are based on coverage, not on the chance of rain in an exact location. If there is a 60% chance of precip in Tampa, let's say, then a correct forecast would mean 60% of the area of Tampa would have experienced precipitation.
I heard this explanation given on the Weather Channel and the local newscaster. I have seen that type of forecast given for the area and none in the forecast area got any rain at all.
You have the coolest graphics Tim
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol Tim....just not a lot to talk about. I think we may get one more named storm this season, something forming near the CONUS. BTW, do any of the long-range models show a cold front making it all the through so. Fla.?


Yep i agree.....one of these stalled fronts...will eventually bring something i would think...we need these fronts to move thru the south and cool off the waters in the Caribbean before anything bad happens....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You have the coolest graphics Tim


Geoff thanks.....i change things when i find and see something better....
I don't see any major cold weather ahead for FL with this predominant deep layered ridge eroding that trough.

I might as well get my money's worth, Tampa your just happy the fins got there buttock's wiped. You Tampa loving homer. I wish there was something to talk about in the Tropical western hemisphere, I guess a lot of these posting are just useless.
558. xcool






I got spoiled last weekend future...I know you don't like cold weather, but this Fla. native looks forward to it.
Quoting futuremet:
I don't see any major cold weather ahead for FL with this predominant deep layered ridge that trough.

I agree unfortunately. This is the same ridge that will bring Florida some near record high temperatures this week. :( Another hot, humid week ahead of us; the cool air a week and a half ago was just a teaser.
Gimme those $90 electric bills again!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I got spoiled last weekend future...I know you don't like cold weather, but this Fla. native looks forward to it.


lol yea...I do not like it. My favorite temperature is 78 degrees..no more....and no less.

Honestly though...the ECMWF and the GFS are expecting a deep layered ridge to perpetuate itself over the east coast. Deep layered ridges warm the environment adiabatically, and thus weaken the front significantly by the time it gets to us. Fortunately, this ridge is also hampering tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean.



For West Palm Beach:

Oct 25 Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Low 74F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Oct 26 Tomorrow
Scattered thunderstorms. Near record high temperatures. High 89F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Oct 26 Tomorrow night
Scattered thunderstorms. Humid. Low 78F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Oct 27 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s.
Oct 28 Wednesday
Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 29 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s.
Oct 30 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 31 Saturday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 1 Sunday
Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 2 Monday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 3 Tuesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Quoting xcool:








Yep looks like the models have changed. Looks like the Low will move more North than it was before.....The Midwest could be in for one heck of a snow storm tho...
565. xcool
TampaSpin .yeah
567. xcool
TampaSpin .bad weather :(
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin .bad weather :(


That cold Weather will move East..It will eventually depend on the the track of the low who will get the Snow and severe weather..the low will be an outbreak of severe weather when it comes out of Rockies.
Quoting futuremet:


lol yea...I do not like it. My favorite temperature is 78 degrees..no more....and no less.




True, but I'd rather have it as a daytime high than as a nighttime low.... which is what seems is going to be the case this week....
It will also depend how strong the Ridge will stay i place on the East coast also.......that ridge might just give us that other Tropical Storm the Geoff was talking about....
Quoting BahaHurican:
True, but I'd rather have it as a daytime high than as a nighttime low.... which is what seems is going to be the case this week....


+1

Its when it starts dropping to the 40s I HATE IT.
572. xcool
TampaSpin . weathertap Radar showing bad weather head this way!
Gonna go watch the rest of the BAseball game....BBL later......Yankee hater.......LOL
Quoting futuremet:


+1

Its when it starts dropping to the 40s I HATE IT.
LOL u are too far NORTH..... lol For me, ideal diurnal temps are high 81, low 70. Just warm enough to ditch the outerwear, just cool enough to ditch the A/C.... but if that happened every day I would be bored because there'd be no WEATHER.... lol
575. xcool
bye
576. xcool
i hate coldair
I'm not even reading abt weather right now... am reading about omega 3 oils and the peerage of the UK and land grants of the Bahamas.... only one set of windows with wx stuff right now...
578. xcool
579. JRRP
Quoting xcool:
i hate coldair

i love it
580. xcool
not me.:(
581. JRRP
Wanna post a funny video Baha, but afraid I will get banned. Nothing in the Atlantic, think Admin. should back off a little. I wrote Dr. Masters about it and he said he would bring it up in their next meeting.
Good evening, all,
I just got back from our neighborhood Octoberfest, potluck and BYOB, plenty for all and more, wish you all could have been there. Chilly autumn evening, but the neighbors had a firebbowl.
Anyway, if Kip is still in here, just wanted you to know I wasn't ignoring you. About the flu, you are correct re the graphs.
Still, I think we can agree this current flu can be a beast. Some are like that. I had the Hong Kong flu, prob. long before many of you were born...it was worse than mononucleosis (stage crew...we shared candy bars and sodas, wink wink.)
586. xcool


A little fun...we have had 8 named storms this season...Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred and Grace. What song would you dedicate to them that described how they behaved?
589. xcool


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
xcool...what site do you get those animated maps from? I know it it's an NOAA site, but how do you navigate to them?


Hmmm...wanna keep it secret? :)
Ft. Worth NOAA radio went crazy with warnings for the past hour.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I agree unfortunately. This is the same ridge that will bring Florida some near record high temperatures this week. :( Another hot, humid week ahead of us; the cool air a week and a half ago was just a teaser.
remember there is more to florida than central or southern florida. nw fla will be cool.
595. xcool
GeoffreyWPB hmmm ? what map???
The animated map that shows the local weather with graphics.


dbz approaching 70 which is extreme poss tornadic nature
598. xcool
GeoffreyWPB oh
Here's a song for Hurricane Bill...from some of the blogs, it seems appropriate, but still kinda lame...Link
600. xcool


Looks like the Philippines are in for another hit.

FredEx (you will be rick rolled, but it applies, Never Gonna Give You Up) Link
It's a ways away Aussie...hope they dodge another bullet.

NEXRAD Radar
Dallas-Fort Worth, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

30 frame loop
TVS noted


024
WUUS54 KFWD 260307
SVRFWD
TXC147-181-260415-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0507.091026T0307Z-091026T0415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FANNIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WHITEWRIGHT...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHITEWRIGHT BY 1015 PM
BELLS BY 1020 PM
SAVOY AND HENDRIX BY 1025 PM
LEONARD BY 1030 PM
ECTOR BY 1035 PM
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wanna post a funny video Baha, but afraid I will get banned. Nothing in the Atlantic, think Admin. should back off a little. I wrote Dr. Masters about it and he said he would bring it up in their next meeting.


Hey, I got banned. Me,Me the nicest guy in the world. I didn't even know it because I was flying back to Ft. Lauderdale and couldn't go on anyway. My wife laughed so hard, she couldn't tell me. She told me to stand in the corner. I even posted some of the best weather maps, right after that. Oh, by the way, How are the tropics?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I got banned. Me,Me the nicest guy in the world. I didn't even know it because I was flying back to Ft. Lauderdale and couldn't go on anyway. My wife laughed so hard, she couldn't tell me. She told me to stand in the corner. I even posted some of the best weather maps, right after that. Oh, by the way, How are the tropics?


oh, what did you do to get banned? haha
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A little fun...we have had 8 named storms this season...Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred and Grace. What song would you dedicate to them that described how they behaved?


Took me awhile. I don't even know this song, but here goes:

Paul McCartney » Figure Of Eight Lyrics

(Well) You've Got Me Dancing In A Figure Of Eight,
Don't Know If I'm Coming Or Going, I'm Early Or Late.
Round And Round The Ring I Go,
I Want To Know, I Want To Know,
Why Can't We Travel A Continuous Line?
Make Love a Reliable Covenant All The Time.
Up And Down The Hills I Go, I Got To Know, I Got To Know.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I got banned. Me,Me the nicest guy in the world. I didn't even know it because I was flying back to Ft. Lauderdale and couldn't go on anyway. My wife laughed so hard, she couldn't tell me. She told me to stand in the corner. I even posted some of the best weather maps, right after that. Oh, by the way, How are the tropics?


I knew Moe, Larry and Shemp would do it to you! What a GAS (inside joke)
Excellent Awake!
611. xcool
??
Quoting tornadodude:


oh, what did you do to get banned? haha


Oh, I forgot St.Dude!!! How is it going? How is the weather in West Lafayette? Any storms. Just covering myself here.
Quoting mossyhead:
remember there is more to florida than central or southern florida. nw fla will be cool.


We all know there are 2 Florida's, old and new. The dividing line is Interstate 4.
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I forgot St.Dude!!! How is it going? How is the weather in West Lafayette? Any storms. Just covering myself here.


St.Dude? haha well, the weather here is aright, gonna be a little rainy :P
Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like the Philippines are in for another hit.



Hey, Aussie, Is that model for real? The Phillipines are not in the path of another one, I hope.
617. xcool



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here's a song for Hurricane Bill...from some of the blogs, it seems appropriate, but still kinda lame...Link

Too funny. I saw them. I was an embryo, of course.
I know during last winter...Admin. didn't care what you posted. You Tube X-Mas songs, pictures, whatever struck your fancy.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Aussie, Is that model for real? The Phillipines are not in the path of another one, I hope.

Yes its for real, landfall on Saturday or Sunday. I just hope the steering layers fall apart like they did Lupit and it stalls and then gets turned north. Its almost going to be on the same track Parma took. They don't want or need another hit.
lol Awake....I was very young myself, but I like the old songs better than what they put out now.
CRAP

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes its for real, landfall on Saturday or Sunday. I just hope the steering layers fall apart like they did Lupit and it stalls and then gets turned north. Its almost going to be on the same track Parma took. They don't want or need another hit.


Hey Aussie, I have a couple hundred relative in Australia, Some live in Brookvale about 8 miles north of the Sydney Harbor Bridge, you know it?
Not much of anything even attempting to brew up.

So to keep from being banned...we should talk about???? A-Choo
Quoting Orcasystems:
Not much of anything even attempting to brew up.

with 36 days to go
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So to keep from being banned...we should talk about???? A-Choo


Don't you dare
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with 36 days to go


Looking forward to it... then off to Mexico and lay on a beach for two weeks :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Looking forward to it... then off to Mexico and lay on a beach for two weeks :)


+1 haha
Sorry Orca...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Too funny. I saw them. I was an embryo, of course.


hey Awake, should have heeded your advice!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol Awake....I was very young myself, but I like the old songs better than what they put out now.

I knew I liked you. :-)
I was going to post David Bowie's/Queen's
"Under Pressure" (a fave) -- but when I reviewed the lyrics...well, it's more of a fit for big, bad storms. Thnx, that's fun.
guys we done in the Atlantic?
Quoting 19N81W:
guys we done in the Atlantic?


Dec. 1st
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Aussie, I have a couple hundred relative in Australia, Some live in Brookvale about 8 miles north of the Sydney Harbor Bridge, you know it?

yes
Quoting 19N81W:
guys we done in the Atlantic?


We are planning a Vacation to Mexico.. if I book and pay for them before the 36 days is up.. then no... the season is not dead, something will happen. If I wait the 36 days.. it will stay dead..and I will have to pay more...
Quoting 19N81W:
guys we done in the Atlantic?


Looks like only the WESTPAC has any activity. The Weather Channel said we are 93% done with the season in the Atlantic.
Muggy down here in so. Fla.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


MAN that is nasty! Converged right over the radar too. Hope everyone there is in a basement. Any tornado warnings?
No tornado warnings out
Severe Weather....Link
Quoting Grothar:


hey Awake, should have heeded your advice!

Uh, oh, what unsolicited advice did I give?

And am I following this, Grothar? -- you got banned, and you think it's for Stooges? LOL, I think it was becuz you be a bad dawg -- saying the one on the left in the pic was your better half!

If you got banned for the big orange kitty with mumps it was worth it, that one has my heart!
haha we should all definitely post slightly off topic images all day sometime
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Maybe to protest getting put in jail...we should all pick a day to post non-offensive semi-related weather things to post when there is nothing going on in the tropics. I'm sure the advertisers would love that.


I just joined the blog in July. What does one talk about off-season anyway? I mean, having lived in Norway, snow is certainly not a big deal for me! So a blizzard is considered a minor nuisance. What shall we talk about next month?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Uh, oh, what unsolicited advice did I give?

And am I following this, Grothar? -- you got banned, and you think it's for Stooges? LOL, I think it was becuz you be a bad dawg -- saying the one on the left in the pic was your better half!

If you got banned for the big orange kitty with mumps it was worth it, that one has my heart!


LOL...here is a song for this unchained hurricane season...Link
Quoting Grothar:


I just joined the blog in July. What does one talk about off-season anyway? I mean, having lived in Norway, snow is certainly not a big deal for me! So a blizzard is considered a minor nuisance. What shall we talk about next month?


Post videos and pictures of turkeys???
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Post videos and pictures of turkies???


LOL wow, that would be pretty funny
Quoting Grothar:


I just joined the blog in July. What does one talk about off-season anyway? I mean, having lived in Norway, snow is certainly not a big deal for me! So a blizzard is considered a minor nuisance. What shall we talk about next month?


It gets pretty mellow in the off season... and at times hilarious. There are some real characters that come back on the blog. They stay away during this part of the season due to a kids and a couple of the bloggers attitudes.

Not to mention.. its always Typhoon/Hurricane season somewhere.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Post videos and pictures of turkies???

but first and then
Quoting PcolaDan:

but first


That reminds me.. I need to go and pick up some more Halloween candy... we keep buying boxes of those little Mars bars...and they disappear.
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL wow, that would be pretty funny


What do you mean Matt? Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


That reminds me.. I need to go and pick up some more Halloween candy... we keep buying boxes of those little Mars bars...and they disappear.


Butterfingers for me
lol...omg Dan...that's funny! Hope you don't get banned!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What do you mean Matt? Link


ha whoa
Quoting PcolaDan:


Butterfingers for me


Kit Kat?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...here is a song for this unchained hurricane season...Link

Wahhhh sob sniff sob sniff now you've gone & done it, oh, my misbegotten youth.
(Blows nose, dries eyes...)

What's happened with the storm that's headed towards the Marianas, with center south of Guam? Serious, now. Aussie, somebody?
Quoting Orcasystems:


That reminds me.. I need to go and pick up some more Halloween candy... we keep buying boxes of those little Mars bars...and they disappear.

H1N1 MEDICINE. And ALL female problems.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol...omg Dan...that's funny! Hope you don't get banned!!!


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What do you mean Matt? Link


I can't stop laughing!
Dan, the emissary of emoticons!
BTW Grothar, by the time I realized I had a WU mail, I forgot what it was all about.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It gets pretty mellow in the off season... and at times hilarious. There are some real characters that come back on the blog. They stay away during this part of the season due to a kids and a couple of the bloggers attitudes.

Not to mention.. its always Typhoon/Hurricane season somewhere.


Can't wait for that! Hope you and the family are better? Just checked out the westpac storm, could be higher than a Cat 3. By the way is it their system saying a Cat 3 or the Saffir-Simpson.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

H1N1 MEDICINE. And ALL female problems.


There is only 50 in a box... thats not enough for the average :)
We have really gone off course tonight / this morning. I like it! Like the weather, always changing.
Quoting Orcasystems:


There is only 50 in a box... thats not enough for the average :)


On that note, I'm bailing out before the ... starts flying. LOL

Quoting PcolaDan:
BTW Grothar, by the time I realized I had a WU mail, I forgot what it was all about.


And you're asking me? Getting banned was so traumatic, it affected my memory. Still have the message? Go back and read it and tell me what I wrote. Off-blog, of course. I don't want to step on anyones toes.
Wow. I can't believe the Angels threw that game away like that....

I think I may actually watch the world series this year.... lol
Hope I don't get banned for this:



BTW, that's Curly, not Shemp.
That video of the turkey and the poor birds behind her is the best ever.
Emoticons excellent, too.
Do you know how silly we are going to look to the morning crowd when they sign on and review the evening's posts?
Quoting PcolaDan:


On that note, I'm bailing out before the ... starts flying. LOL


Oh heck, no problem. I was just going to tell Orca to send me a triple, then.
Good night to you!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hope I don't get banned for this:



BTW, that's Curly, not Shemp.


If you get banned, we will have your back. Just in case, everyone should keep this in mind.

"Laughter gives us distance. It allows us to step back from an event, deal with it and then move on."
Quoting Grothar:


I just joined the blog in July. What does one talk about off-season anyway? I mean, having lived in Norway, snow is certainly not a big deal for me! So a blizzard is considered a minor nuisance. What shall we talk about next month?
Southern Hemisphere season starts Dec 1.... so we watch there, mainly along N coast of Oz and the SIndian Ocean. Every now and again there's a storm in the SPac. Plus we watch our winter weather, look at season in retrospect, look at forecasts (best one is Dr. Gray's Dec one, that's fun to pull to shreds lol).... whole bunches of stuff. It's usually not that much slower in Jan than it is in here now....
haha glad to see some humour tonight (: keeping it fresh
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do you know how silly we are going to look to the morning crowd when they sign on and review the evening's posts?


We could all claim it was fever-induced delusions. We did not know what we were saying. With that I wish you all stay well, and thank you for one of the more enjoyable evenings I have spent. You are all witty and enjoyable people. I hope to spend more time here soon.
Geez. I just realized it's almost 1 a.m.! I had a slow weekend, but I have to be out for work by 6 a.m. tomorrow... can't believe I'm still on the blog....
so, am I looking at crappy weather in the Caribbean a week from today? seems to be alot of junk out to the east
Quoting BahaHurican:
Southern Hemisphere season starts Dec 1.... so we watch there, mainly along N coast of Oz and the SIndian Ocean. Every now and again there's a storm in the SPac. Plus we watch our winter weather, look at season in retrospect, look at forecasts (best one is Dr. Gray's Dec one, that's fun to pull to shreds lol).... whole bunches of stuff. It's usually not that much slower in Jan than it is in here now....


I have been reading Dr. Gray's analysis for many years, even before joining the blog. Never had anyone to tear it apart. I understand this year, they have added a different approach and are using some data which they had never included before. Should be interesting. Can't believe it will only be a few weeks away before it comes out. I remember reading last years and thought this years would be slow. Although, if I remember correctly, he started out higher in the estimates and kept coming down. Hope you are well Baha!
Yes, it was fever from the flu that made us whacky, so it's blog-related.
Good night, Grothar and buds.
It must be the Italian part of me. It usually takes the Italian side of my family an hour to kiss and say good-bye to each. Do it at least 3 times per person. They German side just nods and walks out the door. My Norwegian relatives are much warmer. They shake hands then nod before walking out the door. Good nite everyone, again. Till tomorrow.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Yes, it was fever from the flu that made us whacky, so it's blog-related.
Good night, Grothar and buds.


Have a good one!
Good nite Nana
according to weather.com, I am.

according to accuweather.com international, it's going to be 55 in saint maarten two Tuesdays from now, so I'm pretty sure I can disregard that forecast. lol
Nite Grothar...good to chat with you tonight.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nite Grothar...good to chat with you tonight.


Nite Geoffrey.
Nite TD.
Quoting Grothar:
Nite TD.


nite Grothar, nite to everyone as well, I need some sleep, definitely enjoyed the humor tonight (:
Matt...a smiley face is :)...you have it as a sad face (:
I think???
Quoting tornadodude:


nite Grothar, nite to everyone as well, I need some sleep, definitely enjoyed the humor tonight (:

G'nite, boyz. Hope to see you soon, sooner if we all don't get banned.
- Nana
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think???


:( sad face. or smiley face :) (: see? haha
Your one of a kind Matt! Nite
I see the trough did move north

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 9:04 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

... A wet and stormy week expected for the Southland...

A dramatic shift in the weather pattern will bring heavy and
prolonged rains to southeast Texas beginning Monday afternoon.
This rain will cross the Sabine River into Louisiana Monday
evening. The culprit will be a combination of developing low
pressure off the Texas coast... deep moisture off the Gulf... and a
Pacific cold front driven by a strong jet stream.

After the first wave of rough weather moves through late Tuesday,
a deepening upper level trough will repeat the process over the
latter portion of the week. Potential rainfall for the upcoming
week could range anywhere from 5 to 10 inches. Considering areas
still draining from last week's rains, flooding is a possibility
over the upcoming week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED 832 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO SE TEXAS BY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO THE REMARKABLE CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE POTENT AND RAPIDLY MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENISIS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
UP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD OF ACADIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED. WILL LET THE MIDS CREW FILL IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
NEXT MODEL RUN.
Flood Warning

Statement as of 9:27 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River near Moss Bluff
* until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0830 PM Sunday the stage was 15.0 feet
* minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet
* forecast... the river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by Saturday.


Flood observed forecast 6 PM
location stage stage day time Mon Tue Wed Thu

Trinity River
Moss Bluff 15 15.0 sun 08 PM 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3





Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 9:58 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 7 am CDT Monday
through Monday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of southeast Texas... including the following
counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos... Burleson... Chambers...
Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston... Grimes... Harris... Houston...
Jackson... Liberty... Madison... Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk...
San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington and
Wharton.

* From 7 am CDT Monday through Monday evening

* excessive rainfall is expected from thunderstorms expected to
develop along an advancing cold front. This line of storms is
expected to impact southeast Texas beginning Monday morning and
persist throughout the day as the front moves slowly across the
region. Some thunderstorms may train over the same area adding
to the potential for heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches can be expected... with isolated totals of 4 to
7 inches possible. This will cause grounds to become quickly
saturated and lead to flooding especially where storms train
across the same area. The heavy rainfall may persist into Monday
evening behind the front and the watch may need to be extended.

* Runoff from any heavy rainfall across southeast Texas will
impact swollen rivers... streams and creeks. This may cause
additional rises in rivers and more river flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means rapidly rising water or flooding is
possible within the watch area. If you are in the watch
area... check preparedness requirements... keep informed... and be
ready for quick action if flash flooding is observed or if a
warning is issued.







FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS..
.INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST FLOOD
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
JASPER AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREAS.

* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS. PERSONS
LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED
Morning everybody. Getting ready to head out of here in a few.



Nothing about this suggests tropical action over the next few days....
While I'm not saying it's impossible for something to form later in November, I'm still thinking that if we are going to see another TC in the basin, it's likely to spin up this week. Nothing's looking likely so far with the current setup. Don't have time to run models right now to confirm, though.

I gotta run. You guys have a great day!
Morning, 456. R u still expecting another storm out of what's left of the season?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, 456. R u still expecting another storm out of what's left of the season?


Expecting, not much

But look at this way. You don't expect certain things in life but they do happen.

Expect the unexpected but this is an El Nino year and the window of favorable MJO is now or never.
just like dr masters has said expect late season out of season storms as the earth warms have a good wk
Quoting leftovers:
just like dr masters has said expect late season out of season storms as the earth warms have a good wk


I wonder how that will play out.

The main reason why there is a hurricane season is because of wind shear. SSTs in the Caribbean are above 26C all year round. So this global warming have to affect wind shear and the only correlation I know is warming of the Pacific to create shear over the ATL.
Quoting Weather456:
Blog Update

Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics

Erika and Fred Revisted

456 How does this season compare to other seasons with only having 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic?
lots of teases this yr brutal week ahead will keep my character busy
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 How does this season compare to other seasons with only having 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic?


Since I have been tracking tropical cyclones -1998, this is the least amount of hurricanes for any El Nino year even lower than 1997 which was pretty much the strongest recent El Nino.

I was quite surprise with September activity considering that in 2006, all the storms - 4 that occurred that month were all hurricanes.

With 8 named storms, this is the least amount of storms I have ever tracked.

The El Nino of 1997 could easily explain the 8 storms that season had, it was a very strong El Nino.

But this El Nino was weak to moderate and very similar to 2006 in its development so the numbers this year should of reflected that year.

However, El Nino was not the only contributing negative factor. It happened to coincide with other negative factors such as synoptic and sub-Global scale sinking air.
Quoting Weather456:


Since I have been tracking tropical cyclones -1998, this is the least amount of hurricanes for any El Nino year even lower than 1997 which was pretty much the strongest recent El Nino.

I was quite surprise with September activity considering that in 2006, all the storms - 4 that occurred that month were all hurricanes.

With 8 named storms, this is the least amount of storms I have ever tracked.

The El Nino of 1997 could easily explain the 8 storms that season had, it was a very strong El Nino.

But this El Nino was weak to moderate and very similar to 2006 in its development so the numbers this year should of reflected that year.

However, El Nino was not the only contributing negative factor. It happened to coincide with other negative factors such as synoptic and sub-Global scale sinking air.
Thanks, do you see any potential with the wave about 50W and 15N ?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, do you see any potential with the wave about 50W and 15N ?


no
first there was none, now there's too much! LOL

UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Do u have or where can I get other info on this?

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Quoting 850Realtor:
Do u have or where can I get other info on this?



Thats all the UKMET office supplies, there is no text with the message.


HPC has this:

THE MOST
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE HAS WARRANTED A THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS EAST TEXAS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY THIS HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. ONE
IMPLICATION OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST
ALONG WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.


HPC Short Range Graphics
Me to!

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats all the UKMET office supplies, there is no text with the message.


HPC has this:

THE MOST
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE HAS WARRANTED A THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS EAST TEXAS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY THIS HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. ONE
IMPLICATION OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST
ALONG WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.


HPC Short Range Graphics


Thanks!
Quoting JRRP:


Next years hurricane season maybe intresting!!!
722. the hurricane season of 2022 may be interesting as well! LOL...of course, none of us will have any clue until about April or May of that year :)
Quoting JRRP:


CPW
Good Morning. Not sure if the season will be ending soon but the only areas with low sheer at the moment are off the east coast of Florida and over/near the Bahamas. Something to watch in terms of any frontal remnants later in the week once the strong shortwave passes through in a few days, but, the window of opportunity seems to be closing for the rest of the tropical atlantic.
Hey Pearland...how about those Aggies
Quoting PcolaDan:


Butterfingers for me


Us too and they disappear as well. My wife and I swear to each other we aren't eating them, then those little orange crumbles give me away when I get some sugar from her and she sees them on my shirt LOL.
Quoting Marlinzfan:


Us too and they disappear as well. My wife and I swear to each other we aren't eating them, then those little orange crumbles give me away when I get some sugar from her and she sees them on my shirt LOL.


LOL we had some in depth discussions last night on the blog xD
729. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL we had some in depth discussions last night on the blog xD

G'Morning! Okay, good, T-Dude still here after last night's indepth weather(?) discussions.
1 not banned, 2 not banned...
All chocolate donations gladly accepted.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

G'Morning! Okay, good, T-Dude still here after last night's indepth weather(?) discussions.
1 not banned, 2 not banned...
All chocolate donations gladly accepted.


I'm still here, too! Who said there might be something forming in the Gulf?
Quoting IKE:
NEW BLOG!


Ike, you have to be more specific, Your Ne blog, Dr. Master's new blog. We don't do well in the morning.