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The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Awake. That link sums it up.
And yeah, snow would be fine!
Quoting Grothar:


I've been in an actual Arctic blast, above the Arctic Circle. Not fun. Try spending a winter in Northern Norway, you'll never want another one. lol


Galena, Alaska.

First snow was on last day of summer.

Longest cold spell 35 below for one week (and that's not counting any effects from wind chill).

Still thawing out...
Quoting fire635:
Ive never really visited this site through the winter months. Do you guys/gals give insight as to winter weather too? If so, that would be great!

Hi, fire,
I am the least-qualified person on this blog, but didn't want you to feel overlooked.

The short answer appears to be yes! Check out StormW and TampaSpin's blogs today. There's other pros and semi-pros. The other day one of the "old-timers" said a lot of interesting people actually come back in the winter -- duck out during the tropical season because it gets so crazy in here (fun, though, usually.)

Out for now, need to enjoy fine fall weather before the next projected n'oreaster!
More and more it's beginning to look like the pattern across the US is setting up in an El Nino pattern,for the end of November and maybe December too.
latest solar minimum update...sunspot 1031 is not getting bigger (it is more of a sunspeck than a sunspot). the plage responsible for old sunspot 1029 has rotated back into view but remains spotless (this was the group that spawned an impressive SC24 sunspot group a couple of weeks ago).



the large plage is from old sunspot group 1029.


the sunspot numbers have been up a little as of late...


but it looks like, according to the sunspot progression, that the SC23/24 minimum will once again undercut the NASA prediction. however, it looks like (from the last few data points) that we are coming out of the minimum. only time will tell...
Its kind of funny,now that the tropical season,is more or less done,this blog has really gone silent.
507. well, i'd bet you could think of a way to get discussion started again! LOL i sure can :)
Busy Second Day in Space for STS-129 Crew
Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:37:21 AM CST

The six crew members aboard space shuttle Atlantis began the second day of their mission Tuesday at 4:28 a.m. EST. Activities for the STS-129 crew include surveying the shuttle's thermal protection system, checking out spacesuits and grappling the Express Logistics Carrier 1. The crew also will install the centerline camera, extend the Orbiter Docking System ring and checkout rendezvous tools in preparation for docking to the International Space Station on Wednesday.
from yesterday...
509. Pat, i'm starting to close the blog posts gap as of late. if the ratio as of late holds, i will eclipse your mark in approximately 657 days. LOL
My 100,000 post is due the same day as ,well..Dec 21st 2012 around noon ...if my math is correct.

Currently,..

Community Participation:

You have posted 213 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 67985 comments in all blogs.


Snicker,snort,..ack!!!
current auroral oval...typically meek for a solar minimum.
512. yeah, but, but my posts have been outnumbering yours as of late by a ~10:1 ratio. so there! LOL
A lot of my posts were from Blogging severe weather a few years ago,..when that was kinda en vogue here.

And a lot of others were from vocalizing the experience of Katrina,thru my Families eyes as well.
So..its not really the number of posts one makes..its more about the Quality one could say.
sunspots aren't the only thing to cause the auraborialis.
Quoting Patrap:
My 100,000 post is due the same day as ,well..Dec 21st 2012 around noon ...if my math is correct.

Currently,..

Community Participation:

You have posted 213 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 67985 comments in all blogs.


Snicker,snort,..ack!!!
How about the movie 2012, some people making millions and millions of dollars on events showing how the human race will end. What Next?
hmmm, instigators...

just back for a second. So just received e-mail that pinpointed good place for better info on what's going on post-NorIda in Virginia.

Read article this morning, think Bossier, LA, will get disaster declaration soon but there's been more than one severe weather event, so I've lost track...maybe Pat knows more.

Situation reports & other info, VA

Link
Quoting weatherbro:
sunspots aren't the only thing to cause the auraborialis.
Coronal Mass Ejections ?
515. LOL...it took 4 minutes for the quality-versus-quantity argument to come out. i figured it would be only 1 minute! LOL
516. who said that? :) in fact, sunspots really don't cause the aurora directly.
519. yes, when CMEs increase the solar wind velocity, which is more common at solar max than at solar min.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Its kind of funny,now that the tropical season,is more or less done,this blog has really gone silent.


That's because most on here are adjusters or in related insurance or building occupations. Some, however, like Rareair and I...will be making the occasional cameo throughout the winter months :)
It's aurora borealis...lol that's what my daughter is named after
Conch,I stick around through the winter,this is my hurricane season,and theres several people who report here and Stormw always reports in on east coast weather.
I hope to have the most ignored comments. Quiet day so far. I see that not even the climate change can get the bickering started today. Floodman, I see some of the psychadelics have worked for some interesting thoughts. Pat, good luck on 100,000 before California falls into the ocean.( I saw 2012 this W/E).
LOL @ 527. oh, my!

although i would say that i don't think anyone was trying to start AGW "bickering"! LOL
They've been saying Cali was gonna fall of for YEARS now lol
529. someday it will probably happen...we just don't know when! LOL
We had 2 inches of snow last December 11th in NOLA.



So with the El Nino conditions present,..Im thinking maybe we will have a colder and wetter winter as forecasted in the SouthEast
Local CBS met discussing a weekend Low in the GOM,..
Interesting
At this point last year we had had over 22" of snow. So far this year 1/2 inch would be pushing it. If this continues it would be fine for many of us who live just south of the great lakes. Colder and wetter would not be good for us.
Quoting Patrap:
We had 2 inches of snow last December 11th in NOLA.



So with the El Nino conditions present,..Im thinking maybe we will have a colder and wetter winter as forecasted in the SouthEast
Quoting Patrap:
So with the El Nino conditions present,..Im thinking maybe we will have a colder and wetter winter as forecasted in the SouthEast

I hope so Patrap. Have not seen a good snow in Atlanta in years.
hey all

that low in the Gom could be a huge coastal low on the east coast next week.
Was 20 years ago this Dec 23rd..we had a BAd Blue Northern here.
NOLA was under the freeze Line for 40 hours..with a Low of 13 F the 24th.

Everyone with a toolbox was plumber for weeks after too.

Lotsa Water Lines burst.

And the S Shore of Lake Pontchartrain froze out about 20 ft from the shore as well.

hey, matt. wassup?
Quoting pearlandaggie:
hey, matt. wassup?


oh just doing some HW :/ yay!
541. xcool
Cold Tonight! Frost Northshore
540. at least you don't have to mow the lawn! LOL

The Atlantic Philanthropies



I'll be attending the US-Cuban Hurricane Conference here next Monday the 23rd of November.

If anyone is interested in attending here with us,contact me via-wu mail as I have secured a few more invites thru our group.



The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 5:00 p.m. President Obama's Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion



Admission is free, but seating is limited.



The Center for International Policy wishes to express its appreciation to

Atlantic Philanthropies for the support which made this conference possible.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
540. at least you don't have to mow the lawn! LOL


Rather mow yard than do homework, atleast once you mow its over, HW isnt over till school is.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
540. at least you don't have to mow the lawn! LOL


true! (:

but I do agree with 544 :P
544. depends on how much yard you have to mow! LOL
I'm still mowing every weekend, but it's slowed down some.
We need rain in SW Florida!
Hi again, I've been reading on here about the Pineapple Express and it doesn't seem to rattle the NW bloggers much.
But there's another big storm expected on Thurs. with high winds and rains,
and a 3rd expected over weekend.
Winds reached 95+ in Oregon, = Cat. 2 gusts.

Is this "normal"? maybe my screen name should have been worrywart

Hi, Matt, looking back on posts yesterday -- to me my teasing sounded shriller than I meant. Sorry, you know me and others on blog have adopted you. Hope your folks don't mind too much.

My 4-year old grandson went to hospital in Orange County, CA yesterday with swine flu. I don't know much more yet, need to call for an update. Worrisome, of course, but he has one grandfather who's a doctor so I'm sure he's well watched over.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hi, Matt, looking back on posts yesterday -- to me my teasing sounded shriller than I meant. Sorry, you know me and others on blog have adopted you. Hope your folks don't mind too much.


Hey, no worries, I was just harassing you back (:
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
64.1 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 5.0 mphfrom the West

Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hi again, I've been reading on here about the Pineapple Express and it doesn't seem to rattle the NW bloggers much.
But there's another big storm expected on Thurs. with high winds and rains,
and a 3rd expected over weekend.
Winds reached 95+ in Oregon, = Cat. 2 gusts.

Is this "normal"? maybe my screen name should have been worrywart

Hi, Matt, looking back on posts yesterday -- to me my teasing sounded shriller than I meant. Sorry, you know me and others on blog have adopted you. Hope your folks don't mind too much.

My 4-year old grandson went to hospital in Orange County, CA yesterday with swine flu. I don't know much more yet, need to call for an update. Worrisome, of course, but he has one grandfather who's a doctor so I'm sure he's well watched over.


Its typical of El Nino winters.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Its typical of El Nino winters.


Maybe I don't want to move to Portland, OR after all. =O
Quoting NEwxguy:


Its typical of El Nino winters.

Thanks, I'm still learning and expect I will be for a long time to come.
Grandson no. 1 is out of hospital, and grandson no. 2 is okay so far. Worry factor has decreased exponentially :)
Thats good news awake,its scary,because the kids are the most vulnerable with this outbreak.
556. beell
According to BC Hydro, this one, not a Pineapple Express. BC Hydro blames the media...
An interesting comment from the Doc's blog:

I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".
beell,thats a good point,and that blocking in central North America is what is going to send storms up the east coast also.
558. beell
Saw your El Nino comment earlier, NE. Would agree that you should have an enjoyable blog season. It just seems so "textbook" for now.
Quoting NEwxguy:
that low in the Gom could be a huge coastal low on the east coast next week.



not even funny... but alot of models say that im scared haha
Was 2004 the last el nino?
Howdy folks...all pre-opped and ready for Thursday. So let me get this straight:

Solar activity

The difference between what the media in the NW is calling a pineapple express and a real one

Who will be here in the winter

The fact that Patrap will be getitng to 100,000 posts about the same day that the world is due to come to an end

That about it?
562. beell
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Was 2004 the last el nino?


El Nino Years
That about sums it up floodman.

Ask for a Bloggers recovery room too..

And remember,..no matter how many times ya push the Morphine Button,.it only delivers so much.
564. beell
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy folks...all pre-opped and ready for Thursday. So let me get this straight:

Solar activity

The difference between what the media in the NW is calling a pineapple express and a real one

Who will b here in the winter

The fact that Patrap will be getitng to 100,000 posts about the same day that the world is due to come to an end

That about it?


One more-best wishes on the op!
(try not to have any wardrobe malfunctions with your hospital gown-you may scare the children)
Quoting beell:


One more-best wishes on the op!
(try not to have any wardrobe malfunctions with your hospital gown-you may scare the children)


beell, thanks so much for the well wishes; I really appreciate it!

As for a wardrobe malfnction, hey, I'm not shy! If they're looking , well, it's nothing a decade or so of therapy can't cure, LOL!

About the well wishes; I have received dozens of notes from people, the regulars, old regulars from here that don;t post much anymore, poeple who lurk and don't typically post...I want to thank you all; I've said it before: this is one of the best online communities I've ever been a part of; thank you all!
Quoting Patrap:
That about sums it up floodman.

Ask for a Bloggers recovery room too..

And remember,..no matter how many times ya push the Morphine Button,.it only delivers so much.


That's what they told me today...I asked if could bring my own and wow, they really frown on brown bagging drugs at a hospital, you know?
567. beell
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy folks...all pre-opped and ready for Thursday. So let me get this straight:

Solar activity

The difference between what the media in the NW is calling a pineapple express and a real one

Who will be here in the winter

The fact that Patrap will be getitng to 100,000 posts about the same day that the world is due to come to an end

That about it?


That pretty much sums it up,good job!!
Quoting Floodman:


That's what they told me today...I asked if could bring my own and wow, they really frown on brown bagging drugs at a hospital, you know?


Well, there's always the "doggie bag" of leftovers, right?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANJA (04-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion November 17 2009
=========================================

At 18:00 PM, Severe Tropical Storm Anja (975 hPa) located at 19.5S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0

Storm Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
20 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-force winds
======================
30 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.7S 65.6E - 40 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 25.5S 67.6E - 35 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 32.8S 78.6E - 30 kts (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
AQUA 0930z and F16 1441z 37GHZ channels allow locating low level circulation center on the northern edge then on the northwestern edge of the main deep convective activity. Due to lack of clear center on recent multispectral imagery, the location of the center in this advisory has been extrapolated. Wind extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1344z Quikscat swath. ANJA winds structure is very assymetric and strongest winds extends mainly far in the easterm semi-circle. Environment is becoming more unfavorable: cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear. ANJA has accelerated southwesterly and is expected soon to recurve southward then southeastwards. System is expected to undergo a strong vertical wind shear and rapidly weaken.
Quoting beell:

So Flood will be handing out eye bleach to the poor unfortunate souls that have had the experience of seeing his wardrobe malfunction. gotcha.

Honestly though... I hope the surgery goes well, and it accomplishes everything you are looking for. Get well soon!
Hey Flood we'll be here thinking good thoughts for you and don't worry when we talk about you, and you know we will, it will all be good :)
Great meeting LST the other day and knowing she will keep us informed and give us the inside stuff:) Me thinks you better be nice to the Chief Darlin' in your life LOL!
It's been sunny and about 80 degrees here, nothing better except 90.
Quoting NEwxguy:


That pretty much sums it up,good job!!

FLOOD: Pretty good, but you forgot drought, famine, Venezuela, Haiti (oh, sorry, that's redundant), and maybe we don't want to move to Oregon afterall, at least during El Nino.

Also, I'm still waiting for NRAAmy's to 'splain the new "Prisoner" to me (thankfully, only 2 more painful hours), and for her online review of 2012 (meteorological aspects, of course).

I wish you, and Amy, too, great success with restoring those backs to health.

Oh, if LST needs support during, after surgery, is the hospital equipped with wireless? Please ask her to post if she wants/needs to...Admin. will, of course, look the other way (per Many WU Blog Grandmothers' orders, I'm sure)!
By the rate this El Nino is strengthening, I wouldn't be surprised if it rivals the 1997/98 episode by next Spring(March)! It's already in the strong category.
Anyone heard from Orca since this morning? I had made a post asking if he felt the earthquake this morning (LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION, MAGNITUDE - 6.5), but haven't seen a response.
Does anyone have a link to the El Nino status (namely the charts mapping the changes +/- normal in the different El Nino regions)
Hi Flood,
Just wanted to add my good wishes and prayers for your quick recovery. As for the "pain button", just pretend it is the Woodstock era and you will totally chill!
Hi AwakeinMaryland,

I wish you and your family the best and a speedy recovery for your grandson!
hi everyone,
isn't there a song called waiting on the rain? it just started to drizzle here and we are suppose to have heavy rain on friday. northern california. last storm with all it's warnings was a dud here, it was all centered at the coast.
Jerry...just bring some brownies....
Flood, here is one of my famous little quotes for you! It is an old Swedish proverb:

Vänskap fördubblar vår glädje och delar vår sorg.

"Friendship doubles our joy and divides our grief".

That's what you have done for some of us.

Try and get a room with a view so at least you can look at the weather. Stay well!
Also, I'm still waiting for NRAAmy's to 'splain the new "Prisoner" to me (thankfully, only 2 more painful hours), and for her online review of 2012 (meteorological aspects, of course).

Awake...I gave up on The Prisoner...watched for an hour and a half last night...Al Gore in a speedo would have been less painful...

And I'm seeing 2012 tomorrow....
Quoting hcubed:


Well, there's always the "doggie bag" of leftovers, right?


Ahhh, one can only hope...LOL
Quoting jeffs713:

So Flood will be handing out eye bleach to the poor unfortunate souls that have had the experience of seeing his wardrobe malfunction. gotcha.

Honestly though... I hope the surgery goes well, and it accomplishes everything you are looking for. Get well soon!


Thanks, Jeff; I'll be trying hard...
Quoting icmoore:
Hey Flood we'll be here thinking good thoughts for you and don't worry when we talk about you, and you know we will, it will all be good :)
Great meeting LST the other day and knowing she will keep us informed and give us the inside stuff:) Me thinks you better be nice to the Chief Darlin' in your life LOL!
It's been sunny and about 80 degrees here, nothing better except 90.


She was equally pleased to meet you; and that goes for everyone here...you guys made her feel welcome and we both appreciate that. The hospital does indeed have wireless; she will be keeping the updates coming. You can rest assured that if I say anything even remotely funny while "under the influence" she will let you guys know...LOL
Quoting morebeachtime:
Hi Flood,
Just wanted to add my good wishes and prayers for your quick recovery. As for the "pain button", just pretend it is the Woodstock era and you will totally chill!


Thanks, beachtime! With all these prayers and thoughts flying around for me, I shuld be back ion my feet in days! You guys are the best and thank you again, beachtime...
Quoting Grothar:
Flood, here is one of my famous little quotes for you! It is an old Swedish proverb:

Vänskap fördubblar vår glädje och delar vår sorg.

"Friendship doubles our joy and divides our grief".

That's what you have done for some of us.

Try and get a room with a view so at least you can look at the weather. Stay well!


Thank you Grothar; I really haven't done anything that out of the ordinary but I'm glad to know that I may have made some of you smile and helped some of you with whatever problems you've had...we old hippies love that sort of thing, you know...
Quoting Floodman:


Thank you Grothar; I really haven't done anything that out of the ordinary but I'm glad to know that I may have made some of you smile and helped some of you with whatever problems you've had...we old hippies love that sort of thing, you know...


590. Halyn
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy folks...all pre-opped and ready for Thursday. em>


Hope it all goes well, Floodman .. :) Am sure it will be a relief ..
591. P451
Still spinning away out there....



It just....won't....DIE.

Quoting PcolaDan:




where does this guy get these icons? Thanks, P'cola...you really crack me up, man
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....
Quoting Halyn:


Hope it all goes well, Floodman .. :) Am sure it will be a relief ..


Thanks, Halyn...if the staff today were any indication, all will go well and the relief, I assure you, will be palpable...
Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....


That would explain it, darlin'!
Quoting Greyelf:
Anyone heard from Orca since this morning? I had made a post asking if he felt the earthquake this morning (LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION, MAGNITUDE - 6.5), but haven't seen a response.


Hmmmm

M6.6 – Queen Charlotte Islands Region
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 15:30:46 UTC
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 07:30:46 Local
Globe at 50 -130. Click to view event page.

52.15°N 131.38°W
Depth: 11km

1. Maps
2. Graphs
3. Responses
4. Downloads
5. Did You Feel It? — Tell Us !

City map
Intensity vs. Distance
Intensity vs. Distance
Intensity vs. Distance
Responses vs. Time
Responses vs. Time
Printer Friendly Response Summary
Summary of Responses by ZipState ZIP Name ZIP Code MMI Resp. Distance Latitude Longitude
MT Butte 59701 1 1 1538 45.98°N 112.53°W
ID Lewiston 83501 2 1 1248 46.20°N 116.87°W
OR Brookings 97415 2 1 1234 42.22°N 124.09°W
WA Bellingham 98229 1 1 744 48.69°N 122.41°W
WA Oak Harbor 98277 1 1 755 48.32°N 122.63°W
WA Forks 98331 1 1 694 47.88°N 124.31°W
AK Chugiak 99567 2 1 1509 61.46°N 149.33°W
AK Hyder 99923 2 1 390 55.63°N 130.73°W
Summary of Responses by CityCountry Region City MMI Resp. Distance Latitude Longitude
Canada British Columbia Abbotsford 4 1 728 49.06°N 122.30°W
Canada British Columbia Burns Lake 3 1 439 54.22°N 125.77°W
Canada British Columbia Campbell River 2 1 493 49.99°N 125.23°W
Canada British Columbia Duncan 2 1 661 48.78°N 123.70°W
Canada British Columbia Kitimat 3 19 273 54.01°N 128.70°W
Canada British Columbia Prince Rupert 2 19 251 54.32°N 130.31°W
Canada British Columbia Smithers 2 6 403 54.77°N 127.17°W
Canada British Columbia Terrace 2 15 321 54.52°N 128.61°W
Canada British Columbia Vancouver 1 1 664 49.28°N 123.13°W
Canada British Columbia Vanderhoof 2 2 535 54.02°N 124.02°W
Canada British Columbia White Rock 2 1 697 49.03°N 122.83°W
Canada British Columbia Williams Lake 2 1 632 52.13°N 122.14°W
Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....


Huh...wha...didn't do nuttin
I love the cow....he's seen the world!

:)
Quoting NRAamy:
Also, I'm still waiting for NRAAmy's to 'splain the new "Prisoner" to me (thankfully, only 2 more painful hours), and for her online review of 2012 (meteorological aspects, of course).

Awake...I gave up on The Prisoner...watched for an hour and a half last night...Al Gore in a speedo would have been less painful...

And I'm seeing 2012 tomorrow....


What an image. Where's P-Dan with an emoticon. Hey, Al's lost a little weight. Think he's seen your posts.

I will be SO looking forward to your review of 2012...and will miss you awfully during your ban.
no pre-emptive bans!!!!!!!!

;)
Quoting WaterWitch11:
hi everyone,
isn't there a song called waiting on the rain? it just started to drizzle here and we are suppose to have heavy rain on friday. northern california. last storm with all it's warnings was a dud here, it was all centered at the coast.

Thank you for your good wishes, WaterWitch!

Wow, what style of music do you like? We got a bunch of them.

Country/Rock, Griffin Dunne at The Union, Waiting for the Rain Come Down
Link

Oh, my, Art Rock w/Alannah, "The Danish Princess" (a new girl for Grothar?)
Waitin' on the Rain
Link

This is NOT the disaster declaration I was looking for!

VOMIT-Toxin! Now that's a disgusting germ.
(Actually, same thing that caused the Potato Famine in Ireland.)

"Vomitoxin" disaster declared in 10 Md. counties

A fungal grain infestation caused by last spring's wet weather in Maryland was bad enough to earn a federal agricultural disaster declaration for 10 Maryland counties. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Thomas J. Vilsack approved the state's request for aid in a Nov. 13 letter to Gov. Martin O'Malley.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
This is NOT the disaster declaration I was looking for!

VOMIT-Toxin! Now that's a disgusting germ.
(Actually, same thing that caused the Potato Famine in Ireland.)

"Vomitoxin" disaster declared in 10 Md. counties

A fungal grain infestation caused by last spring's wet weather in Maryland was bad enough to earn a federal agricultural disaster declaration for 10 Maryland counties. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Thomas J. Vilsack approved the state's request for aid in a Nov. 13 letter to Gov. Martin O'Malley.


Can you say Ergot?
Awake, you have mail, BTW
Quoting Floodman:


Can you say Ergot?

I had to look it up. You know too much, Flood, and now I do too!

Thanks muchly for mail.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I had to look it up. You know too much, Flood, and now I do too!

Thanks muchly for mail.


Well, if you knew why I took organic chemistry in college and knew what ergot can be made into you'd know why I know so much about it...as for the email, it was nothing. I'm just sorry I didn't know sooner. He'll be fine, I'm sure...
Okay folks, I'm out for a little while...good thoughts, good evening and play nice!
Flood I just sent the "godspeed" text on tweeticus to the boss lady...I mentioned that we will save you some duck and goose jerkey from "duckageddon" 2009 last weekend, but we know Marvin would eat it all...anyway brother you know what you and LST mean to us, and we wish you the best and a speedy recovery.

Conch
Take care Flood.
And best of luck, and swift recoup, from the op.
It appears our hurricane season may at last be ending---that which was Ida is flagged as dissipating in the latest chart:

Alarming storms bring large hail and gusty winds

Severe storms have been careering through northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland during the afternoon, firing up from around 2 o'clock.

So far, storms have shown a number of alarming features. Large hail has been reported in Murwillumbah and Prior, with a diameter of two to four centimetres, enough to cause significant damage to cars, windows and people.

Wind has also been a factor. Any gusts greater than 90 km/h are classified as damaging, with the power to break branches off trees and cause minor infrastructure damage. At Dalby, in QLD, a gust of 109km/h was reported.

A trough has been swinging through the east over the past 24 hours, bringing a gusty change to the NSW coast. It is also partly responsible for the storms.

Tomorrow, storms are again a chance over the southeast QLD area, but should be more isolated as conditions become less favourable for the thunder.

- Weatherzone
when the hail is the size of grapefruit then ya got a problem

weather is changing aussie and in a really big way soon
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANJA (04-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 18 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM, Severe Tropical Storm Anja (985 hPa) located at 20.4S 65.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5

Storm Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
20 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-force winds
======================
30 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 66.1E - 35 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 26.8S 69.4E - 35 kts (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
48 HRS: 35.1S 80.7E - 25 kts (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
Northwesterly increasing vertical wind shear has totally disorganized the residual deep convection structure. Due to lack of clear low level circulation center on recent multispectral imagery (microwave or infrared), the location of the estimated center is very approximately and will probably be relocated on next advisory. ANJA winds structure is very assymetric and strongest winds extend mainly far in the eastern semi-circle. System is soon expected to recurve southwards then to evacuate southeastwards. System should make its extratropical transition within the polar trough trasiting in its south and then dissipate within 48-72 hrs.
howdy all

616. JRRP
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It appears our hurricane season may at last be ending---that which was Ida is flagged as dissipating in the latest chart:



so by dissipate they must mean, just kidding lol early april fools joke? must be 50kt winds over bermuda.

618. Halyn
mmmmm .. hello, ya'll .. what is that swirlly thing centered on Il in the #617 .. if that were over water I might know .. :)
619. xcool



I want the cold front to front on South Florida, please.
622. MTWX
Hurricane season is finally over. Getting the gear together for our tornado season here in Dixie Alley!!


The low in the middle of the country sure is wicked looking...Wow!
624. MTWX
Quoting TampaSpin:


The low in the middle of the country sure is wicked looking...Wow!

Not a real wet one though. Brought winter-like temps here in NE Mississippi.
Wow, this blog really does die off in the winter...anyone home?
Quoting albert0826:
I want the cold front to front on South Florida, please.


you asking us or a higher power?
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, this blog really does die off in the winter...anyone home?


I think it was this season, very slow very annoying. People want to take a break I guess. Heck I'm here because it ain't Dec 1 yet. I'll only be on sparingly until mid may, unless something earlier forms, which is unlikely.
Quoting ElConando:


I think it was this season, very slow very annoying. People want to take a break I guess. Heck I'm here because it ain't Dec 1 yet. I'll only be on sparingly until mid may, unless something earlier forms, which is unlikely.


Well, I'm just kind of poking my head in for a minute; trying to finish up all my work backlog before I do the "out for two weeks" thing...want to finish my work myself; it's easier to take a beating for poorly done work if you're the one that did it poorly...LOL
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 18 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Depression, Former Anja (999 hPa) located at 21.6S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south-at 5 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-force winds
======================
near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.1S 67.5E - 30 kts (DEPRESSION se Comblant)
24 HRS: 29.0S 71.7E - (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
Anja has weakened rapidly and is expected to merge with the cold front located to its southwest within the next 36 hours
EX- IDA is still trying to wrap in the loops.....unreal!

Oh ya i added a new song...one you all have not heard a verson of probably! Taylor Swift and Def Leppard together....great Duo! Wait for it to load!
631. IKE
First post in 4 hours....

282 hours...
25 minutes...and it's officially over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Morning All, Little foggy here in w cen fl. Hey TS you are right great Duo from those two.
633. IKE
I've got 42.6 degrees...outside...inland Florida panhandle.
Silver Spring, Maryland
Mostly Cloudy
45.7 °F

Warmer than Florida panhandle?!

So much info on TS's page I can't find song.
Directions, please? Prob. right in front of my nose -- still on 1st cup of coffee.
real florida 66 beautiful e cent florida
Good Morning. In Trinidad, 11n 61w...
Hot and Hazy this morning, with a forecast of 92 F, and heat index to 104 F.
Average Nov. rainfall = 12.5" (10 yr. average)
2009 Nov rainfall to date=3/4"
10 yr lowest Nov, 2007 = 5.5"

BAH!!
heard chavez is using some of his money trying to make rain any updates on his progress?
HABS:
Monday, November 16, 2009
A harmful algal bloom has been identified in patches onshore northern and central Lee County, in the Pine Island Sound/San Carlos Bay region in Lee County, and in central
Collier County. Also, a harmful algal bloom has been identified offshore southern Lee and northern Collier counties and harmful algae have been identified onshore northern Collier County. Today through Wednesday patchy
very low impacts are possible in the Pine Island Sound/San Carlos Bay region and in central Collier County. Patchy low
to medium impacts are possible in central Lee County. No additional impacts are expected alongshore southwest Florida today through Wednesday, November 18.
Yeah, I heard that about Chavez too.
But I guess that if you are going to seed clouds to make rain, you first need some clouds!
Water on the moon - some WU members are predicting tropical development...
APOD
I wunder if my garden hose could reach the moon ?
Back soon.......
Shucks...the hose is a bit short. But in any case, there is no moon up there. Sums up my week so far.
643. P451
A big Good Luck to Flood today. I hope you're enjoying the day.

Meanwhile, another 24 hour WV loop of ex-idanoreaster. Looks like the southern turn possibly hinting at heading back towards the US is no longer an option. She's motoring E now. I think this puts an end to Ida/NorEaster revisiting the US coast.





644. P451
Quoting IKE:
First post in 4 hours....

282 hours...
25 minutes...and it's officially over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




It's done with...any development close to shore will be of the "winter" variety. We know we can get these oddball short lived systems in the central and east atlantic but it doesn't seem all that nice out there either. Ex-Ida-NorEaster could still find a favorable pocket, go STS for a day and get named Joakim (whatever it is), and then die out.

Other than that..I don't see anything.


Quoting TampaSpin:
EX- IDA is still trying to wrap in the loops.....unreal!

Oh ya i added a new song...one you all have not heard a verson of probably! Taylor Swift and Def Leppard together....great Duo! Wait for it to load!


Ida has always been a fighter. Think right back to when she made landfall in Nicaragua. She died down and seemed about to fall apart - only to pulse back up. She did that multiple times. Would look healthy then succumb to the elements around her then fight them off again and look healthy again. She continues to do it. I'd swear this storm is "alive" for real.

But, I don't expect much out of her now. I guess her last gasp could be what I posted above.
645. P451
X-Ida - MODIS - Yesterday.



Must be wreaking havoc with the shipping lanes.
With El Nino strenghtening it looks like Florida could start seeing some much needed rain later this weekend and next week. Also, with a strong El Nino means many Tornado outbreaks in Florida specially Central Florida. Get ready because the Southern branch of the jet stream is about to get real active in the coming days.
Gee this blog is moving slower than the lose disc in my lower back.
here are the next 4 days max temps for Sydney
Thurs 93F Fri 100F Sat 99F Sun 93F. Summer has arrived. wippppeeeeee

Also A Massive Good Luck to Flood today. We all hope your op goes to plan and we see you back on the blog in a few weeks.
648. beell
Ex Ida continues to weaken and fill. Still cut off from the westerlies. Northern Atlantic upper trough axis along 55W will finally flatten the upper ridge she is embedded in as a mostly zonal southern stream jet builds in from behind. Off she goes.

SSD Northern ATL WV Loop
26 degrees this morning,just west of boston,had to do a lot of scraping of the windshield this morning.
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, this blog really does die off in the winter...anyone home?


I'm here.

Blog addiction- I haz it.

Also, if we end up moving north to escape the economic wasteland that is Florida, I want to know what I'm getting into! Speaking of cold weather, I hear my in-laws and friends talk about ice dams on the roof causing water to back up under the roof and leak through the ceilings. Wouldn't laying Christmas "rope lights" along the edge of the roofs and turning them on prevent that? Has anyone tried something to prevent this?
A scorcher on its way...and maybe dust too


The mercury hit the roof today across New South Wales ahead of the scorcher predicted tomorrow and Friday.

Temperatures on and west of the ranges were enough to make lava look cool. Most towns peaked between eight-to-thirteen above the November norm. Broken Hill Airport recorded it's hottest November in twenty years, reaching 43, but it's meant to beat this again on Thursday, reaching 45.

Along the coast, though, sea breezes kicked in early enough and strong enough to make walking along the beach comfortable. Sydney city only reached 24 degrees, but it was sweatier in the west, with Penrith peaking at 31.

By Friday and Saturday the rubber will really hit the road... and melt!

Northwesterly winds will force in hot interior air. Inland, many November records will be broken as the 40 degree mark is passed. On the coast, temperatures will reach the low to mid-thirties.

Sydney will peak at 33 on Friday, but even more amazingly, Penrith and surrounds will hit 41, a feat not seen in November in five years.

A gusty change will push through the state over the weekend, although this may bring little relief. There is also a chance of dust storms similar to that of a few months ago.

- Weatherzone
well heloo what the heck is that thing in the gom??
653. IKE
Extended GFS and ECMWF seem to indicate a somewhat stormy and colder pattern for the eastern USA right around turkey day and beyond.

It's at least 8 days out and can change, but it looks like the winter "El Nino" pattern in the east and SE USA is about to begin.

Low at my house this morning...42.1.
654. IKE
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


I'm here.

Blog addiction- I haz it.

Also, if we end up moving north to escape the economic wasteland that is Florida, I want to know what I'm getting into! Speaking of cold weather, I hear my in-laws and friends talk about ice dams on the roof causing water to back up under the roof and leak through the ceilings. Wouldn't laying Christmas "rope lights" along the edge of the roofs and turning them on prevent that? Has anyone tried something to prevent this?


Christmas lights don't provide enough heat,but lots of people put heater coils along the edge of their roof to keep the ice from forming.
656. beell
Quoting twhcracker:
well heloo what the heck is that thing in the gom??


There is some low level stratus in the Bay of Campeche. Some cooler air right behind the last front moving over warm waters. Not a worry.
Quoting IKE:
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?

wonder what it will be like in here during my season?
Quoting IKE:
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?


Your not talking about this blog are you??
39 degrees this morning, frost on roofs.
661. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Your not talking about this blog are you??


LOL.


Quoting AussieStorm:

wonder what it will be like in here during my season?


Shouldn't be near as bad.
662. beell
Quoting TampaSpin:


A non-tropical Surface Low will develop near that area and move into the Northern Gulf Coast and emerge on the Atlantic Seaboard as a very nice NorEaster just in time for Thanksgiving. Here is my Tropical Update from Yesterday as Models are now supporting even more!


Well, I guess I did not understand her question. There is nothing in the GOM right now.
660

Yep, same here in Fort Worth. Looks like the first little touch of winter has arrived in Texas...

So how is everyone this morning?
665. IKE
Quoting Floodman:
660

Yep, same here in Fort Worth. Looks like the first little touch of winter has arrived in Texas...

So how is everyone this morning?


I'm fine...fixing to head out the door and try and make a dollar.

Good luck on your surgery.
I meant to mention this earlier this week,when did TWC become a movie channel.Turned it on to get an update on my Saturday wet weather,and I'm watching the movie Misery,less and less weather on that channel.
I'm surprised tacoman hasn't come on here telling us that the nontropical low that is supposed to develop in the GOM will become a monster.. Guess he gave up?

Yes Ike, it is nice to see no arguments :)
Good morning....

Next HURR Season should be interesting... :)
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.
Quoting IKE:


I'm fine...fixing to head out the door and try and make a dollar.

Good luck on your surgery.


Thanks, Ike...good luck on that dollar...may it be two!
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.


I envy you your cold temps this morning...I moved south some years ago and I really miss the brisk mornings (I know, I'm crazy, but what the hell, at least it's not dangerous crazy...LOL)
Quoting reedzone:
I'm surprised tacoman hasn't come on here telling us that the nontropical low that is supposed to develop in the GOM will become a monster.. Guess he gave up?

Yes Ike, it is nice to see no arguments :)

LOL..SHHHHH! Speak of the devil and he will appear!
673. beell
Morning, Flood.
Clear, calm, and 46F after a low of 42F. Fairly stout 1020mb on the pressure.

Should be a nice day. See ya'll later.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.


Hope you got the firewood and snow shovel handy. Unless the pattern changes your gonna be in for one heck of a winter im afraid.....That Southern jet stream is not a good position for you all in the NE!!!
Quoting beell:
Morning, Flood.
Clear, calm, and 46F after a low of 42F. Fairly stout 1020mb on the pressure.

Should be a nice day. See ya'll later.


Enjoy it!
38 here in H town
Tampa,Yep,I hear ya,but still not convinced the whole winter is going to be bad,there are going to be some bad stretches,but have a feeling the storm track may be kind of close,so it creates a tricky snow/rain line.
New Blog
Quoting Floodman:


Enjoy it!
Good Morning Floodman, is there a storm forming?