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The Age of Stupid--a movie review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2009

I attended an interesting film premier Tuesday night--the international release of the anti-global warming pseudo-documentary The Age of Stupid. The movie opened at 440 theaters in the U.S., plus hundreds of theaters in 63 other countries, for a total viewing audience organizers estimated at one million people. This was a Guinness World Record for largest simultaneous movie premiere, according to the organizers. The evening began with a live satellite simulcast beamed from New York City, hosted by Gideon Yago of MTV/CNN fame. We were treated to live interviews with British director Franny Armstrong, producer Lizzie Gillett, as well as movies stars like Gillian Anderson (X-files) and Heather Graham ("we need to stop climate change, or else we're screwed"). Some humorous moments were provided by several protesters pretending to be corporate CEOs, who wore Model X7 Survivaballs as they rolled down the recycled pop-bottle green carpet (survivaballs' motto: "while others look to Senate bills or U.N. accords for a climate solution, we look to our best engineers"). We also heard rock star Moby perform on a sound stage powered by four bicyclists peddling on an specially-designed stationary bike rack. Very cute.

After about twenty minutes of these preliminaries, the 92-minute long Age of Stupid movie began. It opens with some beautiful computer animation of the Big Bang and four billion years of evolution, terminating in the year 2055. As the animation screeches to a halt, we are shown jarring scenes of London drowned by rising seas, Las Vegas drifted over by sand dunes, Sydney burning (eerily appropriate after yesterday's fiery red-orange skies spawned by Sydney's record dust storm), and a ruined Taj Mahal in a scorched landscape. I thought this was a bit overdone, since it is highly unlikely that climate change will be able to cause any of these effects by 2055. The scene then shifts to a futuristic building in the ice-free Arctic, where actor Pete Postlethwaite stars as the curator of an archive of human knowledge. He begins looking at old documentary footage from 2008 and asks the question, why didn't we stop climate change when we had the chance?


Figure 1. A flooded London in the year 2055 in The Age of Stupid.

The rest of the movie is a documentary, shot over the past four years in the UK, Nigeria, New Orleans, Iraq, Jordan, The Alps, and India. Six separate stories are followed:

Alvin DuVernay, a Shell Oil scientist who rescued 100 people after Hurricane Katrina
Layefa Malemi, a woman living in Shell's most profitable oil region in Nigeria
Jamila and Adnan Bayyoud, two Iraqi refugee kids trying to find their brother
Piers Guy, a wind farm developer fighting the anti-windfarm lobby in England
Fernand Pareau, 82-year old French mountain guide
Jeh Wadia, a businessman starting a low-cost airline in India

The six stories are interwoven and told in multiple sections, with jumps back and forth to curator Pete Postlethwaite in the future, who is viewing these documentary clips on his futuristic video screen. I found this creative approach to story telling a bit disorienting, but give the film maker credit for trying something innovative. Interspersed with the documentary footage are some fairly compelling animations. My favorite was an illustration of how America's excessive consumption is responsible for at least 1/4 of China's greenhouse gas emissions, since we buy so much cheap junk from China (which often ends up back in a China landfill). A lot of preaching goes on in the movie, with the film maker criticizing our excessive consumerism and our willingness to fight wars over oil. I thought the most compelling story of the six documentary pieces was the tale of the Nigerian woman living in the toxic mess that the oil industry has made in Nigeria. Cheap oil at the pumps in America has huge hidden costs that we don't appreciate.

While the movie did have some interesting sections with messages Americans need to hear, I thought overall the movie was too long and too dull to be worth spending a full-price movie admission ticket for. At least one of the six documentary sections should have been cut--92 minutes is too long for a documentary. It's pretty hard to make a gripping documentary movie about global warming, and The Age of Stupid and Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth are not gripping. You're better off viewing these at home on DVD. Rating: two stars (out of four).

After the movie, the live simulcast from New York City resumed, and we heard speeches from Kofi Annan, former U.N. Secretary General, who called climate change "Perhaps the biggest challenge we face today". Also speaking was the President of the Maldives, an island nation mostly situated less than two meters above sea level. Sea level rise from climate change is a huge threat to his nation, and the president made a pledge to make his nation the first country to be carbon-neutral, by 2020. We also heard from the scientist who heads the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra K. Pachauri, who affirmed the movie's contention that we need to have global emissions of CO2 stop increasing by 2015 in order to avoid dangerous climate change.

The Age of Stupid as part of a media blitz
The release of The Age of Stupid this week was timed to bring visibility to the climate change issue and help mobilize public opinion in advance of the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference, which will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's roadmap for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. The Age of Stupid is key part of a major push green lobby push this week to publicize their key goals:

1) Reducing the 3% per year increase in CO2 emissions we've seen this decade to 0% by 2015.
2) An 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.
3) An eventual return to CO2 levels of 350 ppm--well below the current level of 388 ppm.

Activists are targeting the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh this week as part of their effort; four Greenpeace protesters hung a "Danger: Climate Destruction Ahead, Reduce CO2 Emission Now" banner from a Pittsburgh bridge and dangled beneath the bridge for two hours yesterday. Greenpeace activists were also present as I walked out of the Age of Stupid premiere Tuesday, gathering signatures in support of a petition to urge CO2 controls be agreed upon at the December Copenhagen conference.

A return salvo from the fossil fuel industry and its allies is coming in the next few weeks. They have their own British film maker, Ann McElhinney, who has created a documentary titled, Not Evil Just Wrong, which premiers October 18. They've stated their goal of beating the record for simultaneous theaters airing a movie premiere set by The Age of Stupid. I'll be sure to write a review on Not Evil Just Wrong when it comes out.

Tropical update
There is a new tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday that is generating some disorganized thunderstorm activity over the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation two hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the disturbance, and some slow development is possible over the next few days. The disturbance will have to overcome some dry air to its west, though. None of our reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Dakster:
That weather dot com has my lowest, low a brisk and chilly 75 over the next 10 days.


I remember having to wear a long sleeve shirt in the morning in miami for shcool with the temps in the low 70's because the wind was very high and made it feel like it was in the lower 60's. Likely also because there was no humidity either.
Quoting KoritheMan:


While El Nino may increase the number of recurvatures in a given year, one would expect recurvature of a tropical cyclone in the EATL prior to reaching the United States coastline during late September, anyway.


KoritheMan talk with me on yahoo IM we have lots of things too talk about
Quoting Chicklit:


Why isn't anything developing?
there is a lot of shear or/and dry air.
Okay, one foot long post is enough...two is downright annoying. how about "edit"????
also, i really cannot stand it when politics take the place of rational thought.
my idol is albert einstein.
he was his own man, his own thinker.
never went by anyone's party line.
i'm off.
Quoting ElConando:


I remember having to wear a long sleeve shirt in the morning in miami for shcool with the temps in the low 70's because the wind was very high and made it feel like it was in the lower 60's. Likely also because there was no humidity either.


When daytime highs are in the very low 70's, I agree. Not during the current sauna conditions we have. I love how it rains for 5 minutes every morning. Just enough to cause steam rise off the pavement at 9am...
Quoting Dakster:
That weather dot com has my lowest, low a brisk and chilly 75 over the next 10 days.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Yellow Circle coming at 2am

Is that Fred-ex???
Quoting Chicklit:
Okay, one foot long post is enough...two is downright annoying. how about "edit"????
also, i really cannot stand it when politics take the place of rational thought.
my idol is albert einstein.
he was his own man, his own thinker.
never went by anyone's party line.
i'm off.
that is why i was off most of the day. all that is written will not change what people think. just a lot of arguing.
Quoting somemalayguy117:
Is that Fred-ex???
fred has been gone. if it comes it will be a new system.
Hi, all.
511. flsky
Quoting ElConando:
weather dot com has the low on Tuesday for Tallahassee at 60.

Wow! That sounds delicious! Will we get some relief in CFL as well?
Quoting iceman55:








oh wow wave
There is one impressive wave and a very impressive wave; the most impressive one is over Africa and is firing very very deep convection, and the one that emerged off of Africa already is organizing, slowly.
I think that Fredex will be around for a while, out there, in the middle of no where, hanging out with Karen.
Quoting iceman55:
no more xfred

THROW a PARTY!! Noticed those 3 awesome looking WAVES over Africa! Whether or not 1 or more of them develop is the big question!! Is the SAL going to smother them all, or will wind shear blow them to shreds!

"To be, or not to be (a Tropical system), that is the question"!! Sorry Mr. Shakespeare!! How does the long range shear forecast look for the Eastern Atlantic over the next few days??
Hi guys whats up
Quoting zoomiami:
I think that Fredex will be around for a while, out there, in the middle of no where, hanging out with Karen.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT FRED EX IS DEAD OVER THE U.S.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting iceman55:
xfred 100% dead

"Ding dong FredEx is dead, FredEx is dead, FredEx is dead!!Ding dong the wicked FredEx is dead :0)!!
Jeff,
Can anyone really be serious when they imply that the difference between the target CO2 concentration of 350 ppm and the current concentration stated to be 388 ppm is at all significant?

Especially when water vapor is widely acknowledged to cause the vast majority of any actual greenhouse effect?

Could you please explain how a 3/4 degree C rise in global atmospheric temperature can possibly cause any significant melting of the polar ice caps?

That sure seems like a rather extreme stretch to me.
Quoting dsauder:
Jeff,
Can anyone really be serious when they imply that the difference between the target CO2 concentration of 350 ppm and the current concentration stated to be 388 ppm is at all significant?

Especially when water vapor is widely acknowledged to cause the vast majority of any actual greenhouse effect?

Could you please explain how a 3/4 degree C rise in global atmospheric temperature can possibly cause any significant melting of the polar ice caps?

That sure seems like a rather extreme stretch to me.


Good Evening, we had an EXTREMELY heated discussion about this earlier today!! Google "Global Warming", read the "for" and 'against" arguments!!

Start with this link!!!
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/09/04/20090904climate-artctictemps0904.html
Hello???

What will be near 30 and 65 on Saturday?
Please...anyone???



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 24 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 30N 65W AT 26/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Quoting VortMax1969:
Hello???

What will be near 30 and 65 on Saturday?
Please...anyone???



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 24 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 30N 65W AT 26/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




The one near Bermuda i think
Quoting will40:


The one near Bermuda i think


The large ULL has been showing signs of a surface reflection

that is what the recon flight is for
The ULL is supposed to drill down???
LMAO...good luck on that!



Must be really bored if they're flying into an Upper level low with a surface trough.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Must be really bored if they're flying into an Upper level low with a surface trough.



Well they havent had much training this year
Quoting VortMax1969:
The ULL is supposed to drill down???
LMAO...good luck on that!





Its not impossible for that to occur
I doubt they will fly a low-level Invest flight but it would be nice for some research flights in there!

They have a lot of unspent fuel...please put it to research guys!!

Quoting will40:



Well they havent had much training this year


Well thats probably why they're doing it.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There is one impressive wave and a very impressive wave; the most impressive ones over Africa and is firing very very deep convection, and the one that emerged off of Africa already is organizing, slowly.

those waves are anywhre 10 days to 21/2 weeks ahead even 3 weeks....we should be look in the gulf
and what name is this storm
guys give it a rest about EX fred ok??? it gone he made land fall in NC and fell a part has it came in so its gone its done its POOF


can we may be stop talking about fred now and move on too some in new


that storm was a pain in the you no what too track



it came back then it POOF it came back it went POOF what a pain that that storm was


any one can we forget all about EX fred and move on???
fred is dead....fred is with wilma having a nice life.
Quoting dolphingalrules:
and what name is this storm



Theres nothing out there named- well in the Atlantic theres not
Quoting VortMax1969:
I doubt they will fly a low-level Invest flight but it would be nice for some research flights in there!

They have a lot of unspent fuel...please put it to research guys!!



If you're familiar with the workings of the federal govt. July/August tend to become tight on spending. When September rolls around any monies that are still on the books are spent in anticipation of the new fiscal year October.
It's a use it or lose it mentality. Nobody wants to answer for going over budget, but you don't want your budget cut for lack of use either. Training and a few needs that weren't high priority tend to get filled in these times.
Good evening.

514. iceman55 - your ESL loop is from 9/20...
Quoting mikatnight:


I believe it's the San Diego Chargers this Sunday.


those are fighting words....dolphins rules
Should've used UPS instead of FredEx...
Quoting dolphingalrules:


those are fighting words....dolphins rules


Do you think the Dolphins will show up to the game against San Diego... The last couple of games were not that great.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Must be really bored if they're flying into an Upper level low with a surface trough.


There might be a surface circulation.

CIMSS and ascat point in that direction.

Of course, QS is going to miss it tonight.
Quoting dolphingalrules:


those are fighting words....dolphins rules


Don't shoot me, I'm on your side. The only bigger fan around here is my wife. It's just that...the Fish are having some difficulties...
Quoting iceman55:
Seastep wow thank i delete it.


No problem. Has probably happened at one point or another for most.
If you're familiar with the workings of the federal govt. July/August tend to become tight on spending. When September rolls around any monies that are still on the books are spent in anticipation of the new fiscal year October.
It's a use it or lose it mentality. Nobody wants to answer for going over budget, but you don't want your budget cut for lack of use either. Training and a few needs that weren't high priority tend to get filled in these times.



I am extremely familiar with the procedures.
That is why I posted my comment.

Quoting Dakster:


Do you think the Dolphins will show up to the game against San Diego... The last couple of games were not that great.


they were soo close on monday, but soo far. they have to win on sunday.
Quoting VortMax1969:
If you're familiar with the workings of the federal govt. July/August tend to become tight on spending. When September rolls around any monies that are still on the books are spent in anticipation of the new fiscal year October.
It's a use it or lose it mentality. Nobody wants to answer for going over budget, but you don't want your budget cut for lack of use either. Training and a few needs that weren't high priority tend to get filled in these times.



I am extremely familiar with the procedures.
That is why I posted my comment.



I caught that. Just elaborated. :)
555. JRRP

558. JRRP
i´m out
gotta go...go to FB... see everybody tomorrow
iceman55 - Are you going to post pics of ice storms in the winter for us? Just so you can "live up" to your namesake.
The ULL over Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska has been there so long they may want to name it.

Link
564. JLPR
looking healthy

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Its not impossible for that to occur
You are right, I have seen it happen quite a few times.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Thank you!
That's a nice deep thunderstorm over Africa... I wonder if it has any spin to it.
Quoting Dakster:
That's a nice deep thunderstorm over Africa... I wonder if it has any spin to it.

The tropics just gets more and more interesting as the hours go by
>>>I think that would be perfect, but it doesn't mean I endorse killing off 95%. There is absolutely nothing wrong at all in saying population needs to be 5% of what it is now.
_______________________________________________

Neither me, If he had 0 kids himself, or at least below the national average of 2.2., I'd have no problem with it, but I don't see how he can say that we need to have less than 300 million, when he has 5 himself. How does his own behavior jive with his talk. Like my parrain used to tell me talk is cheap. How can he have 5 kids and say this:

"We're too many people; that's why we have global warming,"

"Too many people are using too much stuff."

He uses far more stuff than 99% of the world, how can he say this? It's just funny to listen to the Al Gores and the Barbara Streisands and the Leonardo Decaprios and the David de Rothschilds of the world have the nerve to preach to anybody when they live in palatial estates and fly private jets(not that there's anything wrong with that, say like Seinfeld), just don't be telling folks to conserve energy when you consume 100x what they ever will, that's all. It's just like pols that preach morality while cheating on their wives. I know the carbon credit scheme is supposed to somehow offset their CO2 usage, but I don't understand how them paying someone to use less CO2 will erase the CO2 that they use.

Not that I believe CO2 has much to do with GW, it is mostly to do with sunspots, which are on the wane as of late, you see Mars go through periods of warming and cooling and icecaps on moons of Jupiter and Saturn expand and contract, climate change is throughout the whole solar system, I've heard astronomers are worried be lack of solar activity lately, that a lack of sunspots may cause another ice age.

As far as the overpopulation goes,
I know something has to be done eventually, there's a finite amount of space, and 6.7 billion probably is too many to live comfortably, I don't think we need the draconian measures that John Holdren is proposing, I think most humane way to do it is pay people to voluntarily have hysteectomies or vascectomies make it 100% voluntary, like LA state rep. Labruzzo of Metarie proposed, he would offer $1000 to do it, they could make it $10,000 and it would still save doe in the long run, personally, I would do it for $10K, as I'm sure it would make all the Malthusians on here happy to hear.

And no, it's not eugenics if its voluntary, nobody would have to do it if they didn't want to. They get the money and reduce population and everyone is happy. And far more humane than world wars or forced sterilizations. It is really the only humane answer.
Quoting iceman55:
2amm I will be surprised if seeing a orange .30-50%

maybe two yellows and one orange tomorrow
Quoting iceman55:
wunderkidcayman .yeah!

what up
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

maybe two yellows and one orange tomorrow


2 yellows and 1 orange for what exactly?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


2 yellows and 1 orange for what exactly?

one in the NW carib that ULL with some sort of surface reflection and the CV low/wave
Quoting iceman55:
wunderkidcayman .just sit here looking models data!

so what are they saying
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


2 yellows and 1 orange for what exactly?
I think he is probably refering to the African wave, Caribbean blob and just East of the southern Antilles or maybe the ULL south of Bermuda. JMO
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


2 yellows and 1 orange for what exactly?


I'll trade you a red one for a yellow one...

Legion - I believe that China and Japan already have population control measures in place. I am not 100% certain, but I remember reading it somewhere.
Very Nice Blog Dr. Masters. I'll Keep An Eye On The System Off The African Coast
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think he is probably refering to the African wave, Caribbean blob and just East of the southern Antilles or maybe the ULL south of Bermuda. JMO

I meant all three the African wave/low orange, caribbean blob yellow and the ULL yellow
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

so what are they saying
I don't think there is much chance in the Caribbean right now. Have you looked at the shear maps ? 40 and 50 kts.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think there is much chance in the Caribbean right now. Have you looked at the shear maps ? 40 and 50 kts.


Que: Iceman... Shear maps for the carribean please?
Quoting Dakster:


Que: Iceman... Shear maps for the carribean please?
I don't know how to post links. I just go on weatherincayman.com and on the left where it says sat and images you can click and see the latest shear map.
Evening all!
Thanks StormwatcherCI... I asked iceman as well, b/c I know he likes to post pics in the blog for all to see.
593. JRRP
which hurricane have been the biggest size in the atlantic?
Throughout the day, I have been sitting down and taking a much closer look and doing some pretty in-depth analysis for the latest computer model runs in regards to the long-term pattern. If the current long range models do verify, we could see an active storm track for the Eastern United States which could not only bring much below normal temps, but effectively shut out the United States from tropical threats as well. It seems that the pattern could be changing now across the Eastern United States into a late fall pattern.
Quoting Dakster:
Thanks StormwatcherCI... I asked iceman as well, b/c I know he likes to post pics in the blog for all to see.
I know and I can't figure out how to post links no matter how I try.
Quoting Dakster:


I'll trade you a red one for a yellow one...

Legion - I believe that China and Japan already have population control measures in place. I am not 100% certain, but I remember reading it somewhere.


Not sure about Japan (and highly doubt it) but China certainly does. Child limit.

Sad, because a lot of infanticide occurs because of the limit.

And, not just medical issues. Gender is the leading reason, from my understanding.

Makes me sick to my stomach just to think about it.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think there is much chance in the Caribbean right now. Have you looked at the shear maps ? 40 and 50 kts.

yep but how long is it going to be there I have seen storms develop in 20-38-39Kt of shear so if it relaxes which it might it has a chance but it is around 30< % plus the T-storms has been persistent for the last 24-48 hours so at the most a yellow for now
Quoting Seastep:


Not sure about Japan (and highly doubt it) but China certainly does. Child limit.

Sad, because a lot of infanticide occurs because of the limit.

And, not just medical issues. Gender is the leading reason, from my understanding.

Makes me sick to my stomach just to think about it.


I do know several people that have adopted Chinese children/babies and all have been female, because for some reason female children are not diserable in China. Very Sad...

Words cannot express my feelings towards someone that would kill a baby... and I will have to leave it at that.
Iceman - DO you have a forecast shear model handy?
602. JRRP
Quoting iceman55:
JRRP hurricane gilbert

thanks iceman
please check this out...I'm begging you...please...

Link
Throughout the day, I have been sitting down and taking a much closer look and doing some pretty in-depth analysis for the latest computer model runs in regards to the long-term pattern. If the current long range models do verify, we could see an active storm track for the Eastern United States which could not only bring much below normal temps, but effectively shut out the United States from tropical threats as well. It seems that the pattern could be changing now across the Eastern United States into a late fall pattern.
Evening everyone.

Quoting Chicklit:


Why isn't anything developing?
Good question. I think we have some strong guesses, but nothing so far to help us successfully predict.

Presslord.....

d-_-b
HELP ! I keep clicking on show all and it keeps going back to show average.
What do I do now ? Anyone ?
JFVWS...as many times as Dr. Masters has mentioned my name in his blog...Do you really think I'm bothered that you do?

although I do suspect it will get you whacked...
Entering the CATL

613. jipmg
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Throughout the day, I have been sitting down and taking a much closer look and doing some pretty in-depth analysis for the latest computer model runs in regards to the long-term pattern. If the current long range models do verify, we could see an active storm track for the Eastern United States which could not only bring much below normal temps, but effectively shut out the United States from tropical threats as well. It seems that the pattern could be changing now across the Eastern United States into a late fall pattern.


Ive expected a very cold winter ever since before hurricane season, the signs of EL NINO were all there
Quoting presslord:
JFVWS...as many times as Dr. Masters has mentioned my name in his blog...Do you really think I'm bothered that you do?

although I do suspect it will get you whacked...


Why would you say that? Are you upset by the fact that I just referred to you by your name?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Throughout the day, I have been sitting down and taking a much closer look and doing some pretty in-depth analysis for the latest computer model runs in regards to the long-term pattern. If the current long range models do verify, we could see an active storm track for the Eastern United States which could not only bring much below normal temps, but effectively shut out the United States from tropical threats as well. It seems that the pattern could be changing now across the Eastern United States into a late fall pattern.
So are u thinking no more storms in the basin at all, or just storms that head off to the east instead of impacting the US?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HELP ! I keep clicking on show all and it keeps going back to show average.
What do I do now ? Anyone ?
Refresh the page. It's the only thing that has worked for me.

Anybody else had this issue recently? It started for me last weekend, I think...
Quoting StormW:


Try these. Use the dropdown menu under the "FIELD" column.

FSU

PSU


HEY STORMW... Thanks.

What is your thought on what CCHSWeatherman is talking about a fall pattern setting up.
G'evening, Stormmy.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Refresh the page. It's the only thing that has worked for me.

Anybody else had this issue recently? It started for me last weekend, I think...
Thanks. I tried that about 10 times and yes, that finally worked.
Big wave coming off Africa, I think the Cape Verde Season is about ready shut down though.
U know, looking at 619, it doesn't look like the season is over; more like we're in a lull. I don't know about landfalls, but I strongly suspect there's "life in the old girl yet".....
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. I tried that about 10 times and yes, that finally worked.


I had that problem awhile ago. I edited and saved my preferences again and it went away. No gaurantees...
Thank you very much for that, PressLord. I greatly appreciate it. :)
Ice = True, but if a pattern sets up that protects CONUS that can't be bad.
Quoting BahaHurican:
So are u thinking no more storms in the basin at all, or just storms that head off to the east instead of impacting the US?


I'm not saying we won't see any more storms this season, but it appears the threat to the Eastern United States and possibly even Gulf of Mexico will be decreasing significantly in the near future since the long range forecast models all show some rather strong troughs digging down into the northern Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard in the coming weeks.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Big wave coming off Africa, I think the Cape Verde Season is about ready shut down though.
I think we may have enough left for maybe another 2 weeks of these waves. Dunno if any of them will do much more than pop off the coast, though. The consistent feature this year seems to be that shear belt...
Quoting StormW:


Could very well be. CCHS is pretty sharp as well...and if he's taken the time to do a really in depth analysis, then chances are pretty good. I on the other hand, haven't had the time to do much long range analysis.


Thanks for the confidence man. Been learning from you and have been modeling my approach after yours.
Quoting iceman55:
all going said SEASON NOT OVER YET 100% that fact!







i dont no why evere one ues WU wind shear maps they are NEVER %100 right
Goodnight all!

Presslord - Keep up the good work with Portlight. I will be in touch.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm not saying we won't see any more storms this season, but it appears the threat to the Eastern United States and possibly even Gulf of Mexico will be decreasing significantly in the near future since the long range forecast models all show some rather strong troughs digging down into the northern Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard in the coming weeks.
That's what I thought u meant, but wanted some clarification. This could be good news, but doesn't save Caymans / Greater Antilles / Bahamas from possible further threats. It'll be interesting to see how things work out over the next 3 - 4 weeks....
Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont no why evere one ues WU wind shear maps they are NEVER %100 right
Which one do you think is 100% right ? I use the one on the Navy sight.
The wave on the coast of Africa actually has a lot going for it in terms of development.
SAL is minimal, water temps are good, and there is a fair amount of moisture across the trop. atl right now.
The one item against it is the shear. If the wave remains below 15n I think it MAY have a chance to become more than a wave...
Quoting pottery:
The wave on the coast of Africa actually has a lot going for it in terms of development.
SAL is minimal, water temps are good, and there is a fair amount of moisture across the trop. atl right now.
The one item against it is the shear. If the wave remains below 15n I think it MAY have a chance to become more than a wave...
Good Evening Pottery, I think there is alot of Saharan dust out there, take a look if you have a moment...
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's what I thought u meant, but wanted some clarification. This could be good news, but doesn't save Caymans / Greater Antilles / Bahamas from possible further threats. It'll be interesting to see how things work out over the next 3 - 4 weeks....


No problem man. You do make a good point that we could still threats to the Caribbean, but given how the environmental conditions in that region have been throughout the season, it doesn't seem that likely that we will see any development there.
Quoting pottery:
The wave on the coast of Africa actually has a lot going for it in terms of development.
SAL is minimal, water temps are good, and there is a fair amount of moisture across the trop. atl right now.
The one item against it is the shear. If the wave remains below 15n I think it MAY have a chance to become more than a wave...
Hey, pot. The big biter all season has been that shear. This is a pretty large area, and the circulation seems to be organizing slowly. Perhaps it has a chance, as u say. I'm not feeling that confident about it right now, though.....
Hydrus, 641.
The dust is in retreat right now I think. And is above the wave, if the wave keeps west.
All that can change though.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


No problem man. You do make a good point that we could still threats to the Caribbean, but given how the environmental conditions in that region have been throughout the season, it doesn't seem that likely that we will see any development there.
I see where u are coming from. I'm waiting to see what eventuates with this next round of the MJO. If anything else develops before the season ends, I think it will happen then. The SSTs aren't so spectacularly warm that they will provide enough fuel for a system to buck the odds on all the other points...
Quoting Dakster:
Ice = True, but if a pattern sets up that protects CONUS that can't be bad.

Any pattern that spares the CONUS after last year and 2005 is a GREAT thing!!

Makes for a quieter season! Quiet=Peace!! Good time for the average Atlantic coastal residents to prepare for the future, which is bound to be more lively than this year!!

About 2 yrs ago, my 27yr old son, wife & 4 kiddos and I were going to move to W Galveston Island, rent a beautiful house 1 mi from the GOM and Galveston Bay, and do something different after 27 yrs in DFW!! LUCKY for us we decided to wait!! Ike submerged that area under 8' of water for 30 hrs!!

Rather see no storms than storms making a parade into the Caribbean, GOM and up the E Coast of the US!!!
Quoting StormW:
Good night all.

Back in the morning.


G'nite, Senior Cief, sweet dreams.
You are probably correct there Baha.
There is an area of showers east of me, that I am trying to encourage this way too LOL
Have had 115 mm so far in Sept. And 92mm of that fell on 17th and 18th. Other than that, its been a dry, hot one.
Got to 35c today again.
Quoting pottery:
Hydrus, 641.
The dust is in retreat right now I think. And is above the wave, if the wave keeps west.
All that can change though.
It is a healthy looking wave any way.
Even though some development of the eastern atl wave is possible i concur with the NHC on its chances at doing anything significant aren't great at this time. Heading into a pretty dry stable airmass.

adrian
I know u guys have been wondering what happened to the wet.... lol

It's been fairly rainy here all summer, but when it's not raining, it's been hot and muggy. Mostly we've been at 90 or just above, but that sure gets hot at 3 p.m.....
Quoting BahaHurican:
I see where u are coming from. I'm waiting to see what eventuates with this next round of the MJO. If anything else develops before the season ends, I think it will happen then. The SSTs aren't so spectacularly warm that they will provide enough fuel for a system to buck the odds on all the other points...


Something that I have been noticing is that even when there has been a strong upward MJO pulse that has settled over the basin, the effects from El Nino have been pretty much in control during the entire season and have made the MJO pulse null and void in most cases with exception of that one spike in action back in early August.
654. JLPR
convection weakening


Lets see if it recovers at d-max

*oh never mind, its coming back xD
Adrian, your thoughts on the wave still on Africa? Potential?
Quoting hurricane23:
Even though some development of the eastern atl wave is possible i concur with the NHC on its chances at doing anything significant aren't great at this time. Heading into a pretty dry stable airmass.

adrian


Evening Adrian. Hope all is well. Are you anticipating anything much for Oct. my friend?
good evening guys
658. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening guys


evening
I''m out, ya'll. Have a good one....
Quoting pottery:
Adrian, your thoughts on the wave still on Africa? Potential?


In all honestly the odds are stacked pretty high that anything forming out there should have a difficult time making the trek across. Those waves might struggle with the very dry airmass currently present.
Thanks, 23.
Convection has weakened with the system around 65w possible sts development regardless pending cold front should scoop it out to sea possibly makeing a close pass to bermuda.
Convection has been perking up down in the south western caribbean over the last 24hrs or so but proximity to land for now sould prevent signifcant development. A general westerly motion into mexico seems likely.

On a different note temps could reach the mid 90's across south florida next week as weak cold front approaches.
Quoting hurricane23:
Convection has been perking up down in the south western caribbean over the last 24hrs or so but proximity to land for now sould prevent signifcant development. A general westerly motion into mexico seems likely.


Isn't that convection just due to diffluent flow aloft and everyday activity over Central America?
665. Bonz
"On a different note temps could reach the mid 90's across south florida next week as weak cold front approaches."

Oh effing thrillsville (rolleyes.) We need more heat like the Sahara needs more sand.
Quoting Bonz:
"On a different note temps could reach the mid 90's across south florida next week as weak cold front approaches."

Oh effing thrillsville (rolleyes.) We need more heat like the Sahara needs more sand.


ha yeah, supposed to be in the mid 60's on monday and tuesday here
Folks this season is over. Way too much shear out there It looks like late Oct. We just passed the peak of the season and nothing was out there.
On a different note temps could reach the mid 90's across south florida next week as weak cold front approaches.


That's not much of a CF is it 23?

Quoting tornadodude:


ha yeah, supposed to be in the mid 60's on monday and tuesday here


Mid 60s should be our lows on Tuesday and Wednesday :)
Good evening everyone, ICEMAN can you interpret for me the second map
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Mid 60s should be our lows on Tuesday and Wednesday :)


nice, lows in the 40's here :)
3 years out of 4, no 40s till after Columbus Day for us. Our average low is 43 in the dead of winter.
good evening all what u miss
thank you, so can I conclude that tropical cyclone development is posible, I am seeing a cyclone symbol on the chart?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
3 years out of 4, no 40s till after Columbus Day for us. Our average low is 43 in the dead of winter.


really? wow
No change in temp down here in September.

Another three weeks...maybe.

680. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:





I don't get it
they gave the TW a storm symbol, as if it were a storm =S im confused
Here's our climate calendar tornadodude, Link

And click where it says this in the 1971-2000 section on the upper left: Daily Tabular data (~23 KB)
685. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR how.


I have no idea xD
I bet that was a whoops on the map lol
hello again
688. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR how



map show .TC FORMATION AREAS OF INTEREST


if there is an area with possibility it should have the colors corresponding to the amount of possibility but instead they gave the wave the TC symbol as if it were already one
Theres no such thing as man-made global warming. Can't believe people actually believe it
I see the symbol too. It's in the grid 2 left of and 1 below the CV islands. Weird...
Quoting mrnicktou:
Theres no such thing as man-made global warming. Can't believe people actually believe it

Well there you have it. We now have a definitive answer so there is no more need for discussion nor studies. While you're at it, do you have the answer for hunger too?
Quoting mrnicktou:
Theres no such thing as man-made global warming. Can't believe people actually believe it


not again, please can we stick to the tropics? thanks (:
The wave about to come off Africa looks pretty good.
Loop

Night all.
School 2nite.
Work in the a.m.
I don't think the season's over yet.
So there.
Who's afraid of a little crow?
Quoting PcolaDan:

Well there you have it. We now have a definitive answer so there is no more need for discussion nor studies. While you're at it, do you have the answer for hunger too?


Answer me this. How did the Ice Ages end if my SUV didn't put CO2 in the atmosphere? One question answer that.
How did the Ice Ages end?
How's this for seasonal averages:

ESTERO, FL

Quoting tornadodude:


not again, please can we stick to the tropics? thanks (:

i know. this is when i am in danger of being banned for profanity. kma.
Quoting iceman55:
stoppppppppppppp what fbeep beep global warming


The blog is about that today or i wouldn't
Quoting Chicklit:
The wave about to come off Africa looks pretty good.
Loop

Night all.
School 2nite.
Work in the a.m.
I don't think the season's over yet.
So there.
Who's afraid of a little crow?


have a good one chicklit, im guessing one more storm this year. pure guesswork
Quoting PcolaDan:

Well there you have it. We now have a definitive answer so there is no more need for discussion nor studies. While you're at it, do you have the answer for hunger too?

i have the answer, EAT! that usually stops hunger.
Quoting Chicklit:
The wave about to come off Africa looks pretty good.
Loop

Night all.
School 2nite.
Work in the a.m.
I don't think the season's over yet.
So there.
Who's afraid of a little crow?


As the saying goes. It ain't over til ...
704. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
TC FORMATION AREAS OF INTEREST:
Identifies regions of relatively-enhanced summation TC formation probability (see below). To dinstinguish between TC formation and non-formation cases, uses nearby TC formation (see below). Hence, provides a broad-scale "first guess" at areas with the potential for TC formation. The threshold summation probability values that define each area of interest category was chosen so that 100%/75%/25%/5% of dependent sample set cases meet or exceed the threshold values. Basins were treated independently, so corresponding dependent sample set occurrence frequencies may vary by basin.
TC Formation Area
of Intestest Category Occurrence Frequency
(ATLC / EPAC / WPAC) Dependent Cases
Included
Possible (Blue) 4% 7% 5% 75%
Fair (Orange) 10% 26% 12% 25%
Good (Red) 20% 46% 18% 5%


Yep I know that I used that map a few years ago =P
Its been awhile since I have seen it
but that sure seems to be an error
it should be shaded with the corresponding colors not given a TC symbol
Quoting mrnicktou:


The blog is about that today or i wouldn't


ok well you stated your opinion, thanks. so what is your view on the remainder of this season?
Quoting juniort:
thank you, so can I conclude that tropical cyclone development is posible, I am seeing a cyclone symbol on the chart?
The map says Sep 9 so I think that was Fred
Quoting tornadodude:


have a good one chicklit, im guessing one more storm this year. pure guesswork

Check out cape verde dude.
IMOH
708. JLPR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The map says Sep 9 so I think that was Fred


that solves the mystery
its old =P
Quoting Chicklit:

Check out cape verde dude.
IMOH


I would quote the guy but i can't so whoever asked me for my output. I say its gonna be quiet maybe something but you shouldn't take my advice on hurricanes other things that i read books on and study you could. I'm hoping for something to track as long as it stays away from land
Quoting JLPR:


Yep I know that I used that map a few years ago =P
Its been awhile since I have seen it
but that sure seems to be an error
it should be shaded with the corresponding colors not given a TC symbol
Check the date !
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The map says Sep 9 so I think that was Fred

yep and it says big time wow no one can notice it
Quoting mrnicktou:


Answer me this. How did the Ice Ages end if my SUV didn't put CO2 in the atmosphere? One question answer that.
How did the Ice Ages end?

Never said whether I agreed nor disagreed with GW. Was a sarcastic comment based on your, I know what's right and anything else is stupid, comment out of nowhere. That's been the predominance of this blog all day. Healthy discussion are fine. But ignorant statements have led the day.
Quoting mrnicktou:
I would quote the guy but i can't so whoever asked me for my output. I say its gonna be quiet maybe something but you shouldn't take my advice on hurricanes other things that i read books on and study you could. I'm hoping for something to track as long as it stays away from land


ok cool, thanks for your input tho
iceman55 hey
Quoting PcolaDan:

Never said whether I agreed nor disagreed with GW. Was a sarcastic comment based on your, I know what's right and anything else is stupid, comment out of nowhere. That's been the predominance of this blog all day. Healthy discussion are fine. But ignorant statements have led the day.


I have proof but I'm not going to annoy the blog with that as apparently people aren't to happy about it. So if you want to PM me and I can show you proof
718. JLPR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Check the date !


lol I replied to you at 708 already XD
Quoting JLPR:


lol I replied to you at 708 already XD
Yes, I see that now. Sorry.
I see the symbol too. It's in the grid 2 left of and 1 below the CV islands. Weird...
Quoting JLPR:


that solves the mystery
its old =P

Wow, I feel dumb now. Long day... :P
Quoting mrnicktou:


I have proof but I'm not going to annoy the blog with that as apparently people aren't to happy about it. So if you want to PM me and I can show you proof


good idea. look, just because you have "proof" of something doesnt mean you have to try to force it on us. you know what I mean? I personally believe that GW is a naturally occurring event that is being enhanced by humans, but I am also open minded and respect others views.
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfpa.pngLink" alt="" />http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfpa.pngLink
Guess this pointless global warming banter should be my cue that its time to sign off for the night. Have a good night everyone and I will try and be on tomorrow and update my site.

One parting note: I'm not expecting either the Cape Verde tropical wave or the Western Atlantic disturbance near Bermuda to become tropical cyclones due to good subsidence (dry air) and rather unfavorable environmental conditions.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfpa.pngLink" alt="" />http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfpa.pngLink
Still can't figure out how to post link. I tried but it didn't work. Sorry about that.
Quoting Murko:


Do you mean the ones that originally started warning in the 70s & 80s? Or the ones a few years ago who said "our calculations were wrong... it's gonna be worse"? I think you'll find that these days, 90% of SERIOUS climate scientists would agree that man is having a significant impact on the current warming of the Earth. But, hey, we can always find one guy who says the oposite, it's just a case of who you want to agree with. Some people believe in faeries. I don't agree with them, call me supid.

yeah the ones serious about taking our money. did you watch the video posted earlier? did you see the hypocrites? i did, and i notice the ones crying are the ones doing the worst harm. i don't fly, but all those global warming cry babies do. they do all the time. did you know the worst one of all, al gore didn't even turn his lights out on earth day. if they are so serious, and the problem is sooo bad then why aren't they following their own advice. i can tell you. its about money and thats all. they are all getting rich on people like you who fear and hang on to every word they say. look at them, watch them, they are hypocrites. i guess we should all plug our butts up so we don't release any carbon, but if we did that the world would end because we would all spontaneously combust. lol!
have a good one cchs
Quoting mrnicktou:


I have proof but I'm not going to annoy the blog with that as apparently people aren't to happy about it. So if you want to PM me and I can show you proof


Read what I said.

Quoting PcolaDan:

Never said whether I agreed nor disagreed with GW.

Which means I may or may not agree with you. I don't need "proof" one way or the other. A discussion would have been fine, but you put anyone who disagrees with you on the defensive with your statement. There has been enough BS on this blog today.

I never divulge my feelings on politics, religion, nor GW on here.
sorry about the global warm... i mean climate change debate, I tend to get carried away, and like to argue my point, sorry again guys
iceman mail
Quoting iceman55:
your got mail

got it and i send an another back at u :)
Quoting iceman55:
back to

and again back
cchs - appreciate the analysis.
G'nite, all! I'm beat; therefore, I'm off to bed. Sweet dreams, my fellow friends, cheers, :). God bless Dr. Masters, WWW.WeatherUnderground.com, and it's many communities.
Have a goodnight WS
:)
in my books hurricane season is overe done its time too start looking forword too next year



its a EL Nino weak or not there is vary high wind shear out there


i think we may see one more name storm and thats it for the year
CV season in my books is overe
Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.


on that note im out, have a good one
me too night
2am yellow
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 19N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SAHARAN DUST TO THE N AND BEING
DRAWN INTO THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
27W-30W AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG W EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N
AWAY FROM THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

Goodnight John-boy
Goodnight Mary-Ellen
Looks like another yellow circle to fret about for a while.
but not worth losing too much sleep over.
The map shows some nasty weather in KY and Southern IN in the near future, as if they need more bad weather.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"ONDOY" has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it moves towards Aurora-Isabela Area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Storm Ondoy located at 14.8ºN 125.2ºE or 360 kms east southeast of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 kts) with gusts up to 80 km/h (45 kts).

Signal Warnings
====================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h)

Luzon region
1.Catanduanes
2.Camarines Norte
3.Camarines Sur
4.Polillo Island

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h)


Luzon region
1.Albay
2.Burias Island
3.Quezon
4.Marinduque
5.Rizal
6.Bulacan
7.Aurora
8.Nueva Ecija
9.Nueva Vizcaya
10.Quirino
11.Isabela

Additional Information
========================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas affected by the Southwest Monsoon and those under signals #1 and #2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
watching the windward wave it hauling tgif
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Dr. Masters but I have to disagree with him on the global warming issue.

I have not gotten one climatologist to explain why the warmest period in our recorded history was near 1000 years ago. Even to the point where Greenland was inhabitable.

It seems the debate and conventional thought is reversing, where the percentage of reserarchers are thinking sunspot activity has much more influence on global temperatures than. It's just now the idiot politicans with hidden agendas (example: Gore) are plodding through like the argument is over.
757. IKE
Good Morning,

Tropical Update

Watching two African waves
AL 99 2009092506 BEST 0 142N 290W 20 1010 DB


SHIPS Text
760. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 99 2009092506 BEST 0 142N 290W 20 1010 DB


Ding-ding-ding...invest.


From Accuweather....

"Last Update: 25-SEP-2009 05:46am EDT

The Atlantic tropical basin remains unusually quiet. We continue to observe strong westerly upper-level winds over the Atlantic from the northern Caribbean eastward to the African coast north of 10 north. Strong upper-level winds flowing from northeast to southwest cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. These strong upper-level winds contribute to stronger than normal shear across much of the Atlantic Basin. Until this shear decreases the potential for tropical development will remain lower than normal for the next few days.

About the only area that does not not have strong upper-level winds is over the northwest Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche. As a result of weaker shear and warm water we are seeing bursts of thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean. This area of clouds and thunderstorms shows no signs of organization. Surface pressure has fallen in this area and surface pressures are projected to lower over the Yucatan and over the southern Bay of Campeche through Sunday. So, this area of active weather will be watched for possible slow organization south of 20 north during the next few days.

Another area of concern is with an upper-level low just south of Bermuda near 28 north, 66 west. This feature remains a cold core system over tropical waters but in the path of strong upper-level westerly winds. Thunderstorms forming around the system are being sheared off to the northeast. Current computer projections show the westerly winds remaining over this system through at least this weekend. So, no tropical transition is expected with this system as long as the strong upper-level winds create this shearing flow.

A well-defined tropical wave near 30 west has a surface low near 13 north and 27 west. This tropical wave is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images show a cyclonic turning cloud mass within this tropical wave. These same satellite images show a large area of dry air and dust to the north and west of this tropical wave. There is some chance for development in a few days if the tropical wave moves slower than the westward moving dry dusty air and can stay south of 15 north south of the stronger westerly shear.

Another tropical wave is along 58 west and south of 19 north and is moving west at 10-15 mph. Satellite shows most of the convection with this tropical wave south of 14 north. As it progresses westward, there will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the southern Windward Islands, but further development, if any, will be slow to occur.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker"
Quoting iceman55:



Tropical Storm Grace and Henri????
thanks for accu update. notice they said slow to develop with the fast moving wave at 58. if nhc says this you watch it but if accu says it no problem. beautiful weather if you want some beach action e cent florida
Good morning,

Looks like the W to NW Carib will need to be watched next week (late)... if ECMWF keeps its trend by 12Z (today) and 00Z (tomorrow) runs then there will could be potential.
good morning - GRISTLE TO CHEW ON WHILE DRINKING YOUR MORNING COFFEE - Wake UP

"Each day, the sun bombards our planet with 9,000 times more power than we need to run every car, warm every home, and power every electrical appliance on earth. If we can capture just a sliver of one per cent of it, we can kick fossil fuels into the melting dustbin of history. The technology exists. It is there, waiting for us. Professor Anthony Patt has shown that all the energy Europe needs could be provided by lining 0.3 per cent of the Sahara desert an area the size of Belgium with concentrating solar power technology. A consortium of Germany's leading corporations is raring to go. They just need the money. It costs a lot up front $50bn ,but this is nothing like as much we would spend chasing the last dribbles of oil into warzones, and defending ourselves as the planet goes into meltdown.

The World Bank, which receives L400m of your taxes every year, is promoting this soot-streaked vision across the planet. They have just spent $5bn helping poor countries to build power plants that will destroy them. Indeed, it just bankrolled the single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in earth a coal plant in Gujarat, Western India.

But a small number of people make a lot of money on coal and oil and gas. A shift to reaping power from the sun and the wind and the waves would render the rocks and barrels they have spent a fortune mining worthless so they are prepared to pay politicians to keep the system working in their favour, and lavish billions on misinformation campaigns to keep us confused"
Johann Hari
768. IKE
Orange juice anyone?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
325 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


After reading the TWO again, looks like 99L's days are numbered from wind shear.

I am new to the wunderground blog. I have some knowledge of weather and storms as I fish a lot and depend on accurate weather reports to snag the BIG ONES. I have also seen the many NOAA data charts and graphs on ice cores and CO2 levels of the past all the way up to 400K years ago and it shows a CYCLICAL temperature and CO2 levels. WE have had ICE ages and WARM/hot times in the past when people were not yet forming large civilizations... how can this be explained by the modern idea that man caused global warming? PLEASE educate me.... thanks

Also...anyone know why the hurricane season is out of whack with what is expected? aside from the El nino influence and strong shear across the Atlantic basin...any other ideas? I would greatly appreciate a summary from those who know more than I do... Thanks...

Quoting Catfish57:
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Dr. Masters but I have to disagree with him on the global warming issue.

I have not gotten one climatologist to explain why the warmest period in our recorded history was near 1000 years ago. Even to the point where Greenland was inhabitable.

It seems the debate and conventional thought is reversing, where the percentage of reserarchers are thinking sunspot activity has much more influence on global temperatures than. It's just now the idiot politicans with hidden agendas (example: Gore) are plodding through like the argument is over.
Quoting Catfish57:
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Dr. Masters but I have to disagree with him on the global warming issue.

I have not gotten one climatologist to explain why the warmest period in our recorded history was near 1000 years ago. Even to the point where Greenland was inhabitable.

It seems the debate and conventional thought is reversing, where the percentage of reserarchers are thinking sunspot activity has much more influence on global temperatures than. It's just now the idiot politicans with hidden agendas (example: Gore) are plodding through like the argument is over.


My impression is that the current concern amongst those nations who really care is that the "Rate of Change" of Climate Change is the issue and excessive CO2 is the reason.
"Global Warming' as a term seems to be vanishing, Obama didn't use it in his speech, AFAIK. Gore doesn't matter, he'd push snake oil if there was money in it.

What's bothersome is that nobody that has the assets seems to have addressed the fact that all those coral islands threatened with rising water are composed of dead animals that can only live and expand UNDER water and time would be better spent on how to keep water from overtaking them again.
good morning guys we have 99L and maybe soon 90L
Thanks Surfmom –
You echo what I’ve been saying all along. The debate on GW is superfluous. The simple fact is, that oil is a primitive form of energy and limits us in more ways than one. The “green” push is a culmination of the realities of oil and its undesirable side affects. We need more power – much more than oil will ever be able to supply. For humans to achieve the next quantum leap in their evolution – to wipe out world hunger and disease – it will be necessary to go beyond the archaic attributes of burning things to create energy.
pittsburgs. kind of looks like iran a month ago freedom fighters or thugs?
I also believe (quite strongly) that God will not permit us to do the things we wish to do (must do) in outer space until we have achieved some semblance of cohesiveness here on this planet. It is all part of the learning process necessary to acquire the tools we need to achieve our goals.
Someone sent me this link Re: Global Warming. It looks like a good activity to do with the kids.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html




i think 99L will do this like 98L did RIP
Quoting leftovers:
thanks for accu update. notice they said slow to develop with the fast moving wave at 58. if nhc says this you watch it but if accu says it no problem. beautiful weather if you want some beach action e cent florida


You may have a point. But how many times have we seen the NHC playing catch-up?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think 99L will do this like 98L did RIP


It only has 48hrs before very hostile conditions it encounters.....it might make it to Tropical Storm if it hurrys...but, will dig its grave in 48hrs...
776. TampaSpin 7:09 AM CDT on September 25, 2009

What models are those Tim?

LOL.
And BTW, everything is God’s will. Whether you choose to reply or not, agree or disagree, hate or love – nothing happens w/out God’s approval. That includes the horrors of our history as well as our shiniest moments. Good cannot exist without evil. Ipso facto: The Devil works for God. So don’t worry – everything happens for a reason, and it’s all for the ultimate good. Things are getting better, just as they always have; it’s just that from our short-lived perspective it doesn’t always seem that way. But our species has never gone significantly backwards, and each millennium has been an improvement over the former.
PS- I apologize if I’ve offended anyone. My only excuse:
The devil made me do it.
The way Shear looks currently on 9-25, it has the appearance of November with all the Shear.
Current


3 days out
Quoting leftovers:
thanks for accu update. notice they said slow to develop with the fast moving wave at 58. if nhc says this you watch it but if accu says it no problem. beautiful weather if you want some beach action e cent florida




Best example of the NHC being behind the developement curve that I recall would be "Humberto".
Accuweather that day was all over it. JB in particular was incredulous at the lack of respect the the NHC was giving it. The weather spoke for itself that day.
Quoting tkeith:
776. TampaSpin 7:09 AM CDT on September 25, 2009

What models are those Tim?

LOL.


I stirred my honey nut cheerioes around and where the strawberries and bannana's stop is where i figured i would draw the red lines......LOL
Well, gotta get to work. Hope everyone has a great day. TGIF!
56W has no chance of developing with the Shear in the area into the Caribbean......with little sign of easing Shear!

You can see how the Clouds are flying off higher tops form West to East. Gotta be at least 30-40kts of shear!
787. CapnK
Coal, solar, petro, wind, GW/CC or not - if the presence of / activities of Humankind are adversely affecting the planet, then the root problem is _too many people_.

*That* is what should be talked about.

Not much point in taking aspirin to break a fever, when you have malaria...

(Yes, I said it before...)

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Finally..an Invest :)
Quoting CapnK:
Coal, solar, petro, wind, GW/CC or not - if the presence of / activities of Humankind are adversely affecting the planet, then the root problem is _too many people_.

*That* is what should be talked about.

Not much point in taking aspirin to break a fever, when you have malaria...

(Yes, I said it before...)


Yep if thats the problem......we must reduce the amount of beans growed to reduce FARTING....or reduce human beans also......LOL
Quoting mikatnight:
And BTW, everything is God’s will. Whether you choose to reply or not, agree or disagree, hate or love – nothing happens w/out God’s approval. That includes the horrors of our history as well as our shiniest moments. Good cannot exist without evil. Ipso facto: The Devil works for God. So don’t worry – everything happens for a reason, and it’s all for the ultimate good. Things are getting better, just as they always have; it’s just that from our short-lived perspective it doesn’t always seem that way. But our species has never gone significantly backwards, and each millennium has been an improvement over the former.
PS- I apologize if I’ve offended anyone. My only excuse:
The devil made me do it.

Mik, I respect your opinion, but I don't beleive in God or care for any religion. I have never done one thing counting on God's approval or disaproval or wether is his will or not!
Quoting TampaSpin:


I stirred my honey nut cheerioes around and where the strawberries and bannana's stop is where i figured i would draw the red lines......LOL
that is my new favorite modles...along with EXTRAP of course :)
Post #756

The period you refer to is known as the Medieval Warm Period. As is almost always the case with global warming deniers, you have got your facts wrong. Thw world today is warmer than that period. Here's a global temperature graph.

Link
793. IKE
I think I increased the Global Warming meter after eating 2 chili dog's the night before last.

Four topics that lead to problems on here...in no particular order....

(1)Global Warming.
(2)Politics.
(3)Sports.
(4)God.
Quoting surfmom:
good morning - GRISTLE TO CHEW ON WHILE DRINKING YOUR MORNING COFFEE - Wake UP

"Each day, the sun bombards our planet with 9,000 times more power than we need to run every car, warm every home, and power every electrical appliance on earth. If we can capture just a sliver of one per cent of it, we can kick fossil fuels into the melting dustbin of history. The technology exists. It is there, waiting for us. Professor Anthony Patt has shown that all the energy Europe needs could be provided by lining 0.3 per cent of the Sahara desert an area the size of Belgium with concentrating solar power technology. A consortium of Germany's leading corporations is raring to go. They just need the money. It costs a lot up front $50bn ,but this is nothing like as much we would spend chasing the last dribbles of oil into warzones, and defending ourselves as the planet goes into meltdown.

The World Bank, which receives L400m of your taxes every year, is promoting this soot-streaked vision across the planet. They have just spent $5bn helping poor countries to build power plants that will destroy them. Indeed, it just bankrolled the single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in earth a coal plant in Gujarat, Western India.

But a small number of people make a lot of money on coal and oil and gas. A shift to reaping power from the sun and the wind and the waves would render the rocks and barrels they have spent a fortune mining worthless so they are prepared to pay politicians to keep the system working in their favour, and lavish billions on misinformation campaigns to keep us confused"
Johann Hari


Good Post SurfMom, thanks.
Well worth repeating.
Am working on a masters in public administration. Corporations and big money are entrenched in the political process. This is a fact.

The only way we'll get anywhere with human and environmental health issues is via the judicial branch.
Due to astrophysical cycles known as the Milankovitch cycles. There are three known Milankovitch cycles operating on timescales from a few thousand years to over a hundred thousand.

Those cycles can't explain the current warming, which scientists as far back as the 19th century predicted would occur as a result of CO2 being released by fossil fuel burning.
Quoting Chicklit:


Good Post SurfMom, thanks.
Well worth repeating.
Am working on a masters in public administration. Corporations and big money are entrenched in the political process. This is a fact.

The only way we'll get anywhere with human and environmental health issues is via the judicial branch.



the judicial branch?? you want the judicial branch to make laws? guess we're gonna tear up the constitution to end global warming now?

God, I hate this subject. Go Bulls!!



Hey look Ike. I worked all 4 of the deadly topics into one post!
For those that want some deep thinking. How much oil does Mother Earth make and have at a supply. If oil was not extracted from the inside would the earth swell and burst apart. J/K......i know DR. Masters does this on purpose and sits back laughing at all our dumb comments. Notice very few get banned during this time.....LOL
nice blow up of convention.
The gom could be in trouble.
Hey Yonza. Supposedly the Vikings were growing grapes and a few other crops in Greenland during the "Medievil Warm Period". Assuming that is true, that would indicate it was warmer then than the graph you put up would indicate. I want more research on the issue.
Impartial unbiased research. Too much tweaking of the "facts" on both sides.
801. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:



the judicial branch?? you want the judicial branch to make laws? guess we're gonna tear up the constitution to end global warming now?

God, I hate this subject. Go Bulls!!



Hey look Ike. I worked all 4 of the deadly topics into one post!


LOL.
New Blog Yea!
Quoting BobinTampa:

the judicial branch?? you want the judicial branch to make laws? guess we're gonna tear up the constitution to end global warming now?

God, I hate this subject. Go Bulls!!



Might as well fire everyone in the Legislative Branch. God Bless the Miami Dolphins.
(They could use a little divine intervention right about now!)



I find it extraordinary that a blog based upon science, and where many contributors are well clued up on atmospheric physics and are capable of making valuable comments and predictions, e.g. StormW, that there are so many who haven't a clue about climate change or to give its correct title, anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

If you are unsure about global warming and do not have a climate science background, why would you question someone like Dr. Masters unless you had found through your own research that he might be mistaken?

Because you choose not to inform yourself you become easy prey to those that pursue another agenda, one that protects profits at your and your childrens expense. There is a quiz posted above that is full of falsehoods but unless you bothered to find out the facts, you would never know that you were being lied to.

I am not here to convince you of AGW, that will be proved to you within the next ten years or so, but for anyone who wants to make the effort to really understand what climate change is all about; to recognise the signs all around you that tell you it is occurring, and some of the ways that you can help limit or mitigate its effects, I recommend this website.

http://www.realclimate.org/

When you click the link, go to the top menu bar and click "Start here". I would normally wish you happy reading but what you will read, if you understand it, will not make you happy.

Good hurricane hunting!


Climate change ? So what's the worst that can happen, anyway? ;-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AE6Kdo1AQmY&feature=channel